Sample records for age distribution parameters
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Jurgens, Bryant; Böhlke, John Karl; Kauffman, Leon J.; Belitz, Kenneth; Esser, Bradley K.
2016-01-01
A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFC-113, and 14C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.
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A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Calibrating Estimates of Species Divergence Times
Heath, Tracy A.
2012-01-01
In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account. PMID:22334343
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Jurgens, Bryant C.; Böhlke, J.K.; Eberts, Sandra M.
2012-01-01
TracerLPM is an interactive Excel® (2007 or later) workbook program for evaluating groundwater age distributions from environmental tracer data by using lumped parameter models (LPMs). Lumped parameter models are mathematical models of transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configurations that account for effects of hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing within the aquifer, well bore, or discharge area. Five primary LPMs are included in the workbook: piston-flow model (PFM), exponential mixing model (EMM), exponential piston-flow model (EPM), partial exponential model (PEM), and dispersion model (DM). Binary mixing models (BMM) can be created by combining primary LPMs in various combinations. Travel time through the unsaturated zone can be included as an additional parameter. TracerLPM also allows users to enter age distributions determined from other methods, such as particle tracking results from numerical groundwater-flow models or from other LPMs not included in this program. Tracers of both young groundwater (anthropogenic atmospheric gases and isotopic substances indicating post-1940s recharge) and much older groundwater (carbon-14 and helium-4) can be interpreted simultaneously so that estimates of the groundwater age distribution for samples with a wide range of ages can be constrained. TracerLPM is organized to permit a comprehensive interpretive approach consisting of hydrogeologic conceptualization, visual examination of data and models, and best-fit parameter estimation. Groundwater age distributions can be evaluated by comparing measured and modeled tracer concentrations in two ways: (1) multiple tracers analyzed simultaneously can be evaluated against each other for concordance with modeled concentrations (tracer-tracer application) or (2) tracer time-series data can be evaluated for concordance with modeled trends (tracer-time application). Groundwater-age estimates can also be obtained for samples with a single tracer measurement at one point in time; however, prior knowledge of an appropriate LPM is required because the mean age is often non-unique. LPM output concentrations depend on model parameters and sample date. All of the LPMs have a parameter for mean age. The EPM, PEM, and DM have an additional parameter that characterizes the degree of age mixing in the sample. BMMs have a parameter for the fraction of the first component in the mixture. An LPM, together with its parameter values, provides a description of the age distribution or the fractional contribution of water for every age of recharge contained within a sample. For the PFM, the age distribution is a unit pulse at one distinct age. For the other LPMs, the age distribution can be much broader and span decades, centuries, millennia, or more. For a sample with a mixture of groundwater ages, the reported interpretation of tracer data includes the LPM name, the mean age, and the values of any other independent model parameters. TracerLPM also can be used for simulating the responses of wells, springs, streams, or other groundwater discharge receptors to nonpoint-source contaminants that are introduced in recharge, such as nitrate. This is done by combining an LPM or user-defined age distribution with information on contaminant loading at the water table. Information on historic contaminant loading can be used to help evaluate a model's ability to match real world conditions and understand observed contaminant trends, while information on future contaminant loading scenarios can be used to forecast potential contaminant trends.
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Eberts, S.M.; Böhlke, J.K.; Kauffman, L.J.; Jurgens, B.C.
2012-01-01
Environmental age tracers have been used in various ways to help assess vulnerability of drinking-water production wells to contamination. The most appropriate approach will depend on the information that is available and that which is desired. To understand how the well will respond to changing nonpoint-source contaminant inputs at the water table, some representation of the distribution of groundwater ages in the well is needed. Such information for production wells is sparse and difficult to obtain, especially in areas lacking detailed field studies. In this study, age distributions derived from detailed groundwater-flow models with advective particle tracking were compared with those generated from lumped-parameter models to examine conditions in which estimates from simpler, less resource-intensive lumped-parameter models could be used in place of estimates from particle-tracking models. In each of four contrasting hydrogeologic settings in the USA, particle-tracking and lumped-parameter models yielded roughly similar age distributions and largely indistinguishable contaminant trends when based on similar conceptual models and calibrated to similar tracer data. Although model calibrations and predictions were variably affected by tracer limitations and conceptual ambiguities, results illustrated the importance of full age distributions, rather than apparent tracer ages or model mean ages, for trend analysis and forecasting.
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Calibrating binary lumped parameter models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morgenstern, Uwe; Stewart, Mike
2017-04-01
Groundwater at its discharge point is a mixture of water from short and long flowlines, and therefore has a distribution of ages rather than a single age. Various transfer functions describe the distribution of ages within the water sample. Lumped parameter models (LPMs), which are mathematical models of water transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configuration can account for such mixing of groundwater of different age, usually representing the age distribution with two parameters, the mean residence time, and the mixing parameter. Simple lumped parameter models can often match well the measured time varying age tracer concentrations, and therefore are a good representation of the groundwater mixing at these sites. Usually a few tracer data (time series and/or multi-tracer) can constrain both parameters. With the building of larger data sets of age tracer data throughout New Zealand, including tritium, SF6, CFCs, and recently Halon-1301, and time series of these tracers, we realised that for a number of wells the groundwater ages using a simple lumped parameter model were inconsistent between the different tracer methods. Contamination or degradation of individual tracers is unlikely because the different tracers show consistent trends over years and decades. This points toward a more complex mixing of groundwaters with different ages for such wells than represented by the simple lumped parameter models. Binary (or compound) mixing models are able to represent a more complex mixing, with mixing of water of two different age distributions. The problem related to these models is that they usually have 5 parameters which makes them data-hungry and therefore difficult to constrain all parameters. Two or more age tracers with different input functions, with multiple measurements over time, can provide the required information to constrain the parameters of the binary mixing model. We obtained excellent results using tritium time series encompassing the passage of the bomb-tritium through the aquifer, and SF6 with its steep gradient currently in the input. We will show age tracer data from drinking water wells that enabled identification of young water ingression into wells, which poses the risk of bacteriological contamination from the surface into the drinking water.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanford, W. E.
2015-12-01
Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially better fit to the data than the one-parameter exponential function. For the single porosity system it was found that the use of three parameters was often optimal for accurately describing the base-flow age distribution, whereas for the dual porosity system the fourth parameter was often required to fit the more complicated response curves.
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Age Distribution of Groundwater
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morgenstern, U.; Daughney, C. J.
2012-04-01
Groundwater at the discharge point comprises a mixture of water from different flow lines with different travel time and therefore has no discrete age but an age distribution. The age distribution can be assessed by measuring how a pulse shaped tracer moves through the groundwater system. Detection of the time delay and the dispersion of the peak in the groundwater compared to the tracer input reveals the mean residence time and the mixing parameter. Tritium from nuclear weapons testing in the early 1960s resulted in a peak-shaped tritium input to the whole hydrologic system on earth. Tritium is the ideal tracer for groundwater because it is an isotope of hydrogen and therefore is part of the water molecule. Tritium time series data that encompass the passage of the bomb tritium pulse through the groundwater system in all common hydrogeologic situations in New Zealand demonstrate a semi-systematic pattern between age distribution parameters and hydrologic situation. The data in general indicate high fraction of mixing, but in some cases also indicate high piston flow. We will show that still, 45 years after the peak of the bomb tritium, it is possible to assess accurately the parameters of age distributions by measuring the tail of the bomb tritium.
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Kirchengast, S; Gruber, D; Sator, M; Huber, J
1999-10-24
In the present study the association between menstrual and reproductive history patterns and weight status, fat distribution and body composition during postmenopause was tested. In 106 healthy postmenopausal women ranging in age from 48 to 58 years (x = 53.7 year) the weight status was classified according to the recommendations of the WHO. Additionally body composition was estimated by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and fat distribution was calculated using the fat distribution index. Weight status, body composition and fat distribution were correlated with self-reported parameters of menstrual and reproductive history (age at menarche, average cycle length, number of births, age at first and last birth, average pregnancy weight gain, age at menopause). It was shown that number of births, age at first birth and pregnancy weight gain were related significantly to the postmenopausal weight status, body composition and fat distribution. An early first birth a low number of births and a high weight gain during pregnancies can be assumed as risk factors for overweight, a higher amount of adipose tissue, android fat patterning and therefore for the development of the metabolic syndrome during postmenopause. In contrast no adverse effect of menstrual and reproductive parameters on postmenopausal bone mass was found.
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A frequency quantum interpretation of the surface renewal model of mass transfer
Mondal, Chanchal
2017-01-01
The surface of a turbulent liquid is visualized as consisting of a large number of chaotic eddies or liquid elements. Assuming that surface elements of a particular age have renewal frequencies that are integral multiples of a fundamental frequency quantum, and further assuming that the renewal frequency distribution is of the Boltzmann type, performing a population balance for these elements leads to the Danckwerts surface age distribution. The basic quantum is what has been traditionally called the rate of surface renewal. The Higbie surface age distribution follows if the renewal frequency distribution of such elements is assumed to be continuous. Four age distributions, which reflect different start-up conditions of the absorption process, are then used to analyse transient physical gas absorption into a large volume of liquid, assuming negligible gas-side mass-transfer resistance. The first two are different versions of the Danckwerts model, the third one is based on the uniform and Higbie distributions, while the fourth one is a mixed distribution. For the four cases, theoretical expressions are derived for the rates of gas absorption and dissolved-gas transfer to the bulk liquid. Under transient conditions, these two rates are not equal and have an inverse relationship. However, with the progress of absorption towards steady state, they approach one another. Assuming steady-state conditions, the conventional one-parameter Danckwerts age distribution is generalized to a two-parameter age distribution. Like the two-parameter logarithmic normal distribution, this distribution can also capture the bell-shaped nature of the distribution of the ages of surface elements observed experimentally in air–sea gas and heat exchange. Estimates of the liquid-side mass-transfer coefficient made using these two distributions for the absorption of hydrogen and oxygen in water are very close to one another and are comparable to experimental values reported in the literature. PMID:28791137
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Huang, Rui; Zhu, Wei-Jie; Li, Jing; Gu, Yi-Qun
2014-12-01
To evaluate the changes of stage distribution of seminiferous epithelium cycle and its correlations with Leydig cell stereological parameters in aging men. Point counting method was used to analyze the stereological parameters of Leydig cells. The stage number of seminiferous epithelium cycle was calculated in the same testicular tissue samples which were used for Leydig cell stereological analysis. The aging group had shown more severe pathological changes as well as higher pathologic scores than the young group. Compared with the control group, the volume density (VV) and surface density (NA) of Leydig cells in the aging group were increased significantly. The stage number of seminiferous epithelium cycle in the aging group was decreased coincidently compared to the young group. Leydig cell Vv in the young group has a positive relationship with stages I, II, III, V and VI of seminiferous epithelium cycle, and Leydig cell NA and numerical density (NV) were positively related to stage IV. However, only the correlation between NV and stage II was found in the aging group. The stage number of seminiferous epithelium cycle was decreased in aging testes. Changes in the stage distribution in aging testes were related to the Leydig cell stereological parameters which presented as a sign of morphological changes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Braun, Jean; Gemignani, Lorenzo; van der Beek, Peter
2018-03-01
One of the main purposes of detrital thermochronology is to provide constraints on the regional-scale exhumation rate and its spatial variability in actively eroding mountain ranges. Procedures that use cooling age distributions coupled with hypsometry and thermal models have been developed in order to extract quantitative estimates of erosion rate and its spatial distribution, assuming steady state between tectonic uplift and erosion. This hypothesis precludes the use of these procedures to assess the likely transient response of mountain belts to changes in tectonic or climatic forcing. Other methods are based on an a priori knowledge of the in situ distribution of ages to interpret the detrital age distributions. In this paper, we describe a simple method that, using the observed detrital mineral age distributions collected along a river, allows us to extract information about the relative distribution of erosion rates in an eroding catchment without relying on a steady-state assumption, the value of thermal parameters or an a priori knowledge of in situ age distributions. The model is based on a relatively low number of parameters describing lithological variability among the various sub-catchments and their sizes and only uses the raw ages. The method we propose is tested against synthetic age distributions to demonstrate its accuracy and the optimum conditions for it use. In order to illustrate the method, we invert age distributions collected along the main trunk of the Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra river system in the eastern Himalaya. From the inversion of the cooling age distributions we predict present-day erosion rates of the catchments along the Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra river system, as well as some of its tributaries. We show that detrital age distributions contain dual information about present-day erosion rate, i.e., from the predicted distribution of surface ages within each catchment and from the relative contribution of any given catchment to the river distribution. The method additionally allows comparing modern erosion rates to long-term exhumation rates. We provide a simple implementation of the method in Python code within a Jupyter Notebook that includes the data used in this paper for illustration purposes.
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Aging transition in systems of oscillators with global distributed-delay coupling.
Rahman, B; Blyuss, K B; Kyrychko, Y N
2017-09-01
We consider a globally coupled network of active (oscillatory) and inactive (nonoscillatory) oscillators with distributed-delay coupling. Conditions for aging transition, associated with suppression of oscillations, are derived for uniform and gamma delay distributions in terms of coupling parameters and the proportion of inactive oscillators. The results suggest that for the uniform distribution increasing the width of distribution for the same mean delay allows aging transition to happen for a smaller coupling strength and a smaller proportion of inactive elements. For gamma distribution with sufficiently large mean time delay, it may be possible to achieve aging transition for an arbitrary proportion of inactive oscillators, as long as the coupling strength lies in a certain range.
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Interpretation of environmental tracers in groundwater systems with stagnant water zones.
Maloszewski, Piotr; Stichler, Willibald; Zuber, Andrzej
2004-03-01
Lumped-parameter models are commonly applied for determining the age of water from time records of transient environmental tracers. The simplest models (e.g. piston flow or exponential) are also applicable for dating based on the decay or accumulation of tracers in groundwater systems. The models are based on the assumption that the transit time distribution function (exit age distribution function) of the tracer particles in the investigated system adequately represents the distribution of flow lines and is described by a simple function. A chosen or fitted function (called the response function) describes the transit time distribution of a tracer which would be observed at the output (discharge area, spring, stream, or pumping wells) in the case of an instantaneous injection at the entrance (recharge area). Due to large space and time scales, response functions are not measurable in groundwater systems, therefore, functions known from other fields of science, mainly from chemical engineering, are usually used. The type of response function and the values of its parameters define the lumped-parameter model of a system. The main parameter is the mean transit time of tracer through the system, which under favourable conditions may represent the mean age of mobile water. The parameters of the model are found by fitting calculated concentrations to the experimental records of concentrations measured at the outlet. The mean transit time of tracer (often called the tracer age), whether equal to the mean age of water or not, serves in adequate combinations with other data for determining other useful parameters, e.g. the recharge rate or the content of water in the system. The transit time distribution and its mean value serve for confirmation or determination of the conceptual model of the system and/or estimation of its potential vulnerability to anthropogenic pollution. In the interpretation of environmental tracer data with the aid of the lumped-parameter models, the influence of diffusion exchange between mobile water and stagnant or quasi-stagnant water is seldom considered, though it leads to large differences between tracer and water ages. Therefore, the article is focused on the transit time distribution functions of the most common lumped-parameter models, particularly those applicable for the interpretation of environmental tracer data in double-porosity aquifers, or aquifers in which aquitard diffusion may play an important role. A case study is recalled for a confined aquifer in which the diffusion exchange with aquitard most probably strongly influenced the transport of environmental tracers. Another case study presented is related to the interpretation of environmental tracer data obtained from lysimeters installed in the unsaturated zone with a fraction of stagnant water.
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Determining fundamental properties of matter created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Novak, J.; Novak, K.; Pratt, S.; Vredevoogd, J.; Coleman-Smith, C. E.; Wolpert, R. L.
2014-03-01
Posterior distributions for physical parameters describing relativistic heavy-ion collisions, such as the viscosity of the quark-gluon plasma, are extracted through a comparison of hydrodynamic-based transport models to experimental results from 100AGeV+100AGeV Au +Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. By simultaneously varying six parameters and by evaluating several classes of observables, we are able to explore the complex intertwined dependencies of observables on model parameters. The methods provide a full multidimensional posterior distribution for the model output, including a range of acceptable values for each parameter, and reveal correlations between them. The breadth of observables and the number of parameters considered here go beyond previous studies in this field. The statistical tools, which are based upon Gaussian process emulators, are tested in detail and should be extendable to larger data sets and a higher number of parameters.
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Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt
O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.
2017-01-01
Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.
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Neuner, B; Berger, K
2010-11-01
Apart from individual resources and individual risk factors, environmental socioeconomic factors are determinants of individual health and illness. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate the association of small-area environmental socioeconomic parameters (proportion of 14-year-old and younger population, proportion of married citizens, proportion of unemployed, and the number of private cars per inhabitant) with individual socioeconomic parameters (education, income, unemployment, social class and the country of origin) in Dortmund, a major city in Germany. After splitting the small-area environmental socioeconomic parameters of 62 statistical administration units into quintiles, differences in the distribution of individual social parameters were evaluated using adjusted tests for trend. Overall, 1,312 study participants (mean age 53.6 years, 52.9% women) were included. Independently of age and gender, individual social parameters were unequally distributed across areas with different small-area environmental socioeconomic parameters. A place of birth abroad and social class were significantly associated with all small-area environmental socioeconomic parameters. If the impact of environmental socioeconomic parameters on individual health or illness is determined, the unequal small-area distribution of individual social parameters should be considered. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
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Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.
1988-01-01
A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the most probable age. The statistical variability of the ML-estimated calibration curve is assessed by a Monte Carlo method in which simulated data sets repeatedly are drawn from the distributional specification; calibration parameters are reestimated for each such simulation in order to assess their statistical variability. Several examples are used for illustration. The age of undated soils in a related setting may be estimated from the soil data using the fitted calibration curve. A second simulation to assess age estimate variability is described and applied to the examples. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deshayes, Yannick; Verdier, Frederic; Bechou, Laurent; Tregon, Bernard; Danto, Yves; Laffitte, Dominique; Goudard, Jean Luc
2004-09-01
High performance and high reliability are two of the most important goals driving the penetration of optical transmission into telecommunication systems ranging from 880 nm to 1550 nm. Lifetime prediction defined as the time at which a parameter reaches its maximum acceptable shirt still stays the main result in terms of reliability estimation for a technology. For optoelectronic emissive components, selection tests and life testing are specifically used for reliability evaluation according to Telcordia GR-468 CORE requirements. This approach is based on extrapolation of degradation laws, based on physics of failure and electrical or optical parameters, allowing both strong test time reduction and long-term reliability prediction. Unfortunately, in the case of mature technology, there is a growing complexity to calculate average lifetime and failure rates (FITs) using ageing tests in particular due to extremely low failure rates. For present laser diode technologies, time to failure tend to be 106 hours aged under typical conditions (Popt=10 mW and T=80°C). These ageing tests must be performed on more than 100 components aged during 10000 hours mixing different temperatures and drive current conditions conducting to acceleration factors above 300-400. These conditions are high-cost, time consuming and cannot give a complete distribution of times to failure. A new approach consists in use statistic computations to extrapolate lifetime distribution and failure rates in operating conditions from physical parameters of experimental degradation laws. In this paper, Distributed Feedback single mode laser diodes (DFB-LD) used for 1550 nm telecommunication network working at 2.5 Gbit/s transfer rate are studied. Electrical and optical parameters have been measured before and after ageing tests, performed at constant current, according to Telcordia GR-468 requirements. Cumulative failure rates and lifetime distributions are computed using statistic calculations and equations of drift mechanisms versus time fitted from experimental measurements.
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Galactic chemical evolution and nucleocosmochronology - Standard model with terminated infall
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Clayton, D. D.
1984-01-01
Some exactly soluble families of models for the chemical evolution of the Galaxy are presented. The parameters considered include gas mass, the age-metallicity relation, the star mass vs. metallicity, the age distribution, and the mean age of dwarfs. A short BASIC program for calculating these parameters is given. The calculation of metallicity gradients, nuclear cosmochronology, and extinct radioactivities is addressed. An especially simple, mathematically linear model is recommended as a standard model of galaxies with truncated infall due to its internal consistency and compact display of the physical effects of the parameters.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jurgens, B. C.; Bohlke, J. K.; Voss, S.; Fram, M. S.; Esser, B.
2015-12-01
Tracer-based, lumped parameter models (LPMs) are an appealing way to estimate the distribution of age for groundwater because the cost of sampling wells is often less than building numerical groundwater flow models sufficiently complex to provide groundwater age distributions. In practice, however, tracer datasets are often incomplete because of anthropogenic or terrigenic contamination of tracers, or analytical limitations. While age interpretations using such datsets can have large uncertainties, it may still be possible to identify key parts of the age distribution if LPMs are carefully chosen to match hydrogeologic conceptualization and the degree of age mixing is reasonably estimated. We developed a systematic approach for evaluating groundwater age distributions using LPMs with a large but incomplete set of tracer data (3H, 3Hetrit, 14C, and CFCs) from 535 wells, mostly used for public supply, in the Central Valley, California, USA that were sampled by the USGS for the California State Water Resources Control Board Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment or the USGS National Water Quality Assessment Programs. In addition to mean ages, LPMs gave estimates of unsaturated zone travel times, recharge rates for pre- and post-development groundwater, the degree of age mixing in wells, proportion of young water (<60 yrs), and the depth of the boundary between post-development and predevelopment groundwater throughout the Central Valley. Age interpretations were evaluated by comparing past nitrate trends with LPM predicted trends, and whether the presence or absence of anthropogenic organic compounds was consistent with model results. This study illustrates a practical approach for assessing groundwater age information at a large scale to reveal important characteristics about the age structure of a major aquifer, and of the water supplies being derived from it.
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Global survey of star clusters in the Milky Way. VI. Age distribution and cluster formation history
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Piskunov, A. E.; Just, A.; Kharchenko, N. V.; Berczik, P.; Scholz, R.-D.; Reffert, S.; Yen, S. X.
2018-06-01
Context. The all-sky Milky Way Star Clusters (MWSC) survey provides uniform and precise ages, along with other relevant parameters, for a wide variety of clusters in the extended solar neighbourhood. Aims: In this study we aim to construct the cluster age distribution, investigate its spatial variations, and discuss constraints on cluster formation scenarios of the Galactic disk during the last 5 Gyrs. Methods: Due to the spatial extent of the MWSC, we have considered spatial variations of the age distribution along galactocentric radius RG, and along Z-axis. For the analysis of the age distribution we used 2242 clusters, which all lie within roughly 2.5 kpc of the Sun. To connect the observed age distribution to the cluster formation history we built an analytical model based on simple assumptions on the cluster initial mass function and on the cluster mass-lifetime relation, fit it to the observations, and determined the parameters of the cluster formation law. Results: Comparison with the literature shows that earlier results strongly underestimated the number of evolved clusters with ages t ≳ 100 Myr. Recent studies based on all-sky catalogues agree better with our data, but still lack the oldest clusters with ages t ≳ 1 Gyr. We do not observe a strong variation in the age distribution along RG, though we find an enhanced fraction of older clusters (t > 1 Gyr) in the inner disk. In contrast, the distribution strongly varies along Z. The high altitude distribution practically does not contain clusters with t < 1 Gyr. With simple assumptions on the cluster formation history, the cluster initial mass function and the cluster lifetime we can reproduce the observations. The cluster formation rate and the cluster lifetime are strongly degenerate, which does not allow us to disentangle different formation scenarios. In all cases the cluster formation rate is strongly declining with time, and the cluster initial mass function is very shallow at the high mass end.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gardner, W. P.
2017-12-01
A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.
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A continuum mathematical model of endothelial layer maintenance and senescence
Wang, Ying; Aguda, Baltazar D; Friedman, Avner
2007-01-01
Background The monolayer of endothelial cells (ECs) lining the inner wall of blood vessels deteriorates as a person ages due to a complex interplay of a variety of causes including cell death arising from shear stress of blood flow and cellular oxidative stress, cellular senescence, and decreased rate of replacement of dead ECs by progenitor stem cells. Results A continuum mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of large EC populations of the endothelium using a system of differential equations for the number densities of cells of different generations starting from endothelial progenitors to senescent cells, as well as the densities of dead cells and the holes created upon clearing dead cells. Aging of cells is manifested in three ways, namely, losing the ability to divide when the Hayflick limit of 50 generations is reached, decreasing replication rate parameters and increasing death rate parameters as cells divide; due to the dependence of these rate parameters on cell generation, the model predicts a narrow distribution of cell densities peaking at a particular cell generation. As the chronological age of a person advances, the peak of the distribution – corresponding to the age of the endothelium – moves towards senescence correspondingly. However, computer simulations also demonstrate that sustained and enhanced stem cell homing can halt the aging process of the endothelium by maintaining a stationary cell density distribution that peaks well before the Hayflick limit. The healing rates of damaged endothelia for young, middle-aged, and old persons are compared and are found to be particularly sensitive to the stem cell homing parameter. Conclusion The proposed model describes the aging of the endothelium as being driven by cellular senescence, with a rate that does not necessarily correspond to the chronological aging of a person. It is shown that the age of the endothelium depends sensitively on the homing rates of EC progenitor cells. PMID:17692115
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A continuum mathematical model of endothelial layer maintenance and senescence.
Wang, Ying; Aguda, Baltazar D; Friedman, Avner
2007-08-10
The monolayer of endothelial cells (ECs) lining the inner wall of blood vessels deteriorates as a person ages due to a complex interplay of a variety of causes including cell death arising from shear stress of blood flow and cellular oxidative stress, cellular senescence, and decreased rate of replacement of dead ECs by progenitor stem cells. A continuum mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of large EC populations of the endothelium using a system of differential equations for the number densities of cells of different generations starting from endothelial progenitors to senescent cells, as well as the densities of dead cells and the holes created upon clearing dead cells. Aging of cells is manifested in three ways, namely, losing the ability to divide when the Hayflick limit of 50 generations is reached, decreasing replication rate parameters and increasing death rate parameters as cells divide; due to the dependence of these rate parameters on cell generation, the model predicts a narrow distribution of cell densities peaking at a particular cell generation. As the chronological age of a person advances, the peak of the distribution - corresponding to the age of the endothelium - moves towards senescence correspondingly. However, computer simulations also demonstrate that sustained and enhanced stem cell homing can halt the aging process of the endothelium by maintaining a stationary cell density distribution that peaks well before the Hayflick limit. The healing rates of damaged endothelia for young, middle-aged, and old persons are compared and are found to be particularly sensitive to the stem cell homing parameter. The proposed model describes the aging of the endothelium as being driven by cellular senescence, with a rate that does not necessarily correspond to the chronological aging of a person. It is shown that the age of the endothelium depends sensitively on the homing rates of EC progenitor cells.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soulsby, Chris; Birkel, Christian; Geris, Josie; Tetzlaff, Doerthe
2016-04-01
Advances in the use of hydrological tracers and their integration into rainfall runoff models is facilitating improved quantification of stream water age distributions. This is of fundamental importance to understanding water quality dynamics over both short- and long-time scales, particularly as water quality parameters are often associated with water sources of markedly different ages. For example, legacy nitrate pollution may reflect deeper waters that have resided in catchments for decades, whilst more dynamics parameters from anthropogenic sources (e.g. P, pathogens etc) are mobilised by very young (<1 day) near-surface water sources. It is increasingly recognised that water age distributions of stream water is non-stationary in both the short (i.e. event dynamics) and longer-term (i.e. in relation to hydroclimatic variability). This provides a crucial context for interpreting water quality time series. Here, we will use longer-term (>5 year), high resolution (daily) isotope time series in modelling studies for different catchments to show how variable stream water age distributions can be a result of hydroclimatic variability and the implications for understanding water quality. We will also use examples from catchments undergoing rapid urbanisation, how the resulting age distributions of stream water change in a predictable way as a result of modified flow paths. The implication for the management of water quality in urban catchments will be discussed.
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Manabe, Noriaki; Kamada, Tomoari; Hata, Jiro; Haruma, Ken
2018-03-01
The first aim of this study was to develop a new ultrasonographic method (US) to evaluate stool and/or gas distribution. The second aim was to apply this method to compare stool and/or gas distribution between healthy subjects and patients with chronic constipation and evaluate whether US parameters could be an alternative to the colonic transit time (CTT). We enrolled seven healthy volunteers (four men, three women; mean age 29.3 ± 5.2 years) who underwent US and computed tomography (CT) on the same day to evaluate the reproducibility of US results. We then enrolled 268 patients with chronic constipation (94 men, 174 women; mean age 63.3 ± 4.2 years) and 66 age- and sex-matched healthy subjects (controls). The transverse diameters of four segments of the colon [ascending (AC), transverse (TC), descending (DC), and sigmoid (SC)] and the rectum (R) were measured, and their stool and/or gas distribution was evaluated using the constipation index (CI) [AC + TC + DC + SC + R/5] and left/right (L/R) distribution [(DC + SC)/(AC + TC)]. The CTT was assessed using radiopaque markers. All healthy subjects underwent US and CT successfully, with a sufficiently high reproducibility coefficient for this method and significant correlation between the US and CT parameters. The stool and/or gas distribution evaluated by US showed a significant difference in one of the US parameters between healthy subjects and patients, and the CI was an indirect indicator for the CTT. These findings may assist physicians evaluate stool and/or gas distribution of patients with chronic constipation, which is an indirect indicator for CTT.
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The compression of deaths above the mode.
Thatcher, A Roger; Cheung, Siu Lan K; Horiuchi, Shiro; Robine, Jean-Marie
2010-03-26
Kannisto (2001) has shown that as the frequency distribution of ages at death has shifted to the right, the age distribution of deaths above the modal age has become more compressed. In order to further investigate this old-age mortality compression, we adopt the simple logistic model with two parameters, which is known to fit data on old-age mortality well (Thatcher 1999). Based on the model, we show that three key measures of old-age mortality (the modal age of adult deaths, the life expectancy at the modal age, and the standard deviation of ages at death above the mode) can be estimated fairly accurately from death rates at only two suitably chosen high ages (70 and 90 in this study). The distribution of deaths above the modal age becomes compressed when the logits of death rates fall more at the lower age than at the higher age. Our analysis of mortality time series in six countries, using the logistic model, endorsed Kannisto's conclusion. Some possible reasons for the compression are discussed.
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Gíslason, Magnús; Sigurðsson, Sigurður; Guðnason, Vilmundur; Harris, Tamara; Carraro, Ugo; Gargiulo, Paolo
2018-01-01
Sarcopenic muscular degeneration has been consistently identified as an independent risk factor for mortality in aging populations. Recent investigations have realized the quantitative potential of computed tomography (CT) image analysis to describe skeletal muscle volume and composition; however, the optimum approach to assessing these data remains debated. Current literature reports average Hounsfield unit (HU) values and/or segmented soft tissue cross-sectional areas to investigate muscle quality. However, standardized methods for CT analyses and their utility as a comorbidity index remain undefined, and no existing studies compare these methods to the assessment of entire radiodensitometric distributions. The primary aim of this study was to present a comparison of nonlinear trimodal regression analysis (NTRA) parameters of entire radiodensitometric muscle distributions against extant CT metrics and their correlation with lower extremity function (LEF) biometrics (normal/fast gait speed, timed up-and-go, and isometric leg strength) and biochemical and nutritional parameters, such as total solubilized cholesterol (SCHOL) and body mass index (BMI). Data were obtained from 3,162 subjects, aged 66–96 years, from the population-based AGES-Reykjavik Study. 1-D k-means clustering was employed to discretize each biometric and comorbidity dataset into twelve subpopulations, in accordance with Sturges’ Formula for Class Selection. Dataset linear regressions were performed against eleven NTRA distribution parameters and standard CT analyses (fat/muscle cross-sectional area and average HU value). Parameters from NTRA and CT standards were analogously assembled by age and sex. Analysis of specific NTRA parameters with standard CT results showed linear correlation coefficients greater than 0.85, but multiple regression analysis of correlative NTRA parameters yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.99 (P<0.005). These results highlight the specificities of each muscle quality metric to LEF biometrics, SCHOL, and BMI, and particularly highlight the value of the connective tissue regime in this regard. PMID:29513690
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Edmunds, Kyle; Gíslason, Magnús; Sigurðsson, Sigurður; Guðnason, Vilmundur; Harris, Tamara; Carraro, Ugo; Gargiulo, Paolo
2018-01-01
Sarcopenic muscular degeneration has been consistently identified as an independent risk factor for mortality in aging populations. Recent investigations have realized the quantitative potential of computed tomography (CT) image analysis to describe skeletal muscle volume and composition; however, the optimum approach to assessing these data remains debated. Current literature reports average Hounsfield unit (HU) values and/or segmented soft tissue cross-sectional areas to investigate muscle quality. However, standardized methods for CT analyses and their utility as a comorbidity index remain undefined, and no existing studies compare these methods to the assessment of entire radiodensitometric distributions. The primary aim of this study was to present a comparison of nonlinear trimodal regression analysis (NTRA) parameters of entire radiodensitometric muscle distributions against extant CT metrics and their correlation with lower extremity function (LEF) biometrics (normal/fast gait speed, timed up-and-go, and isometric leg strength) and biochemical and nutritional parameters, such as total solubilized cholesterol (SCHOL) and body mass index (BMI). Data were obtained from 3,162 subjects, aged 66-96 years, from the population-based AGES-Reykjavik Study. 1-D k-means clustering was employed to discretize each biometric and comorbidity dataset into twelve subpopulations, in accordance with Sturges' Formula for Class Selection. Dataset linear regressions were performed against eleven NTRA distribution parameters and standard CT analyses (fat/muscle cross-sectional area and average HU value). Parameters from NTRA and CT standards were analogously assembled by age and sex. Analysis of specific NTRA parameters with standard CT results showed linear correlation coefficients greater than 0.85, but multiple regression analysis of correlative NTRA parameters yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.99 (P<0.005). These results highlight the specificities of each muscle quality metric to LEF biometrics, SCHOL, and BMI, and particularly highlight the value of the connective tissue regime in this regard.
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[Subjective Gait Stability in the Elderly].
Hirsch, Theresa; Lampe, Jasmin; Michalk, Katrin; Röder, Lotte; Munsch, Karoline; Marquardt, Jonas
2017-07-10
It can be assumed that the feeling of gait stability or gait instability in the elderly may be independent of a possible fear of falling or a history of falling when walking. Up to now, there has been a lack of spatiotemporal gait parameters for older people who subjectively feel secure when walking. The aim of the study is to analyse the distribution of various gait parameters for older people who subjectively feel secure when walking. In a cross-sectional study, the gait parameters stride time, step time, stride length, step length, double support, single support, and walking speed were measured using a Vicon three-dimensional motion capture system (Plug-In Gait Lower-Body Marker Set) in 31 healthy people aged 65 years and older (mean age 72 ± 3.54 years) who subjectively feel secure when walking. There was a homogeneous distribution in the gait parameters examined, with no abnormalities. The mean values have a low variance with narrow confidence intervals. This study provides evidence that people who subjectively feel secure when walking demonstrate similarly objective gait parameters..
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A lower limit on the age of the universe
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chaboyer, B.; Demarque, P.; Kernan, P.J.
1996-02-16
A detailed numerical study was designed and conducted to estimate the absolute age and the uncertainty in age (with confidence limits) of the oldest globular clusters in our galaxy, and hence to put a robust lower bound on the age of the universe. Estimates of the uncertainty range and distribution in the input parameters of stellar evolution codes were used to produce 1000 Monte Carlo realizations of stellar isochrones, which were then used to derive ages for the 17 oldest globular clusters. A probability distribution for the mean age of these systems was derived by incorporating the observational uncertainties inmore » chrones. The dominant contribution to the width of the distribution (approximately {sup +}{sub -}5) magnitudes. Subdominant contributions came from the choice of the color table used to translate theoretical luminosities and temperatures to observed magnitudes and colors, as well as from theoretical uncertainties in heavy element abundances and mixing length. The one-sided 95 percent confidence limit lower bound for this distribution occurs at an age of 12.07 X 10{sup 9} years, and the median age for the distribution is 14.56 X 10{sup 9} years. These age limits, when compared with the Hubble age estimate, put powerful constraints on cosmology. 41 refs., 2 figs.« less
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The Threshold Bias Model: A Mathematical Model for the Nomothetic Approach of Suicide
Folly, Walter Sydney Dutra
2011-01-01
Background Comparative and predictive analyses of suicide data from different countries are difficult to perform due to varying approaches and the lack of comparative parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings A simple model (the Threshold Bias Model) was tested for comparative and predictive analyses of suicide rates by age. The model comprises of a six parameter distribution that was applied to the USA suicide rates by age for the years 2001 and 2002. Posteriorly, linear extrapolations are performed of the parameter values previously obtained for these years in order to estimate the values corresponding to the year 2003. The calculated distributions agreed reasonably well with the aggregate data. The model was also used to determine the age above which suicide rates become statistically observable in USA, Brazil and Sri Lanka. Conclusions/Significance The Threshold Bias Model has considerable potential applications in demographic studies of suicide. Moreover, since the model can be used to predict the evolution of suicide rates based on information extracted from past data, it will be of great interest to suicidologists and other researchers in the field of mental health. PMID:21909431
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The threshold bias model: a mathematical model for the nomothetic approach of suicide.
Folly, Walter Sydney Dutra
2011-01-01
Comparative and predictive analyses of suicide data from different countries are difficult to perform due to varying approaches and the lack of comparative parameters. A simple model (the Threshold Bias Model) was tested for comparative and predictive analyses of suicide rates by age. The model comprises of a six parameter distribution that was applied to the USA suicide rates by age for the years 2001 and 2002. Posteriorly, linear extrapolations are performed of the parameter values previously obtained for these years in order to estimate the values corresponding to the year 2003. The calculated distributions agreed reasonably well with the aggregate data. The model was also used to determine the age above which suicide rates become statistically observable in USA, Brazil and Sri Lanka. The Threshold Bias Model has considerable potential applications in demographic studies of suicide. Moreover, since the model can be used to predict the evolution of suicide rates based on information extracted from past data, it will be of great interest to suicidologists and other researchers in the field of mental health.
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Molecular size and molecular size distribution affecting traditional balsamic vinegar aging.
Falcone, Pasquale Massimiliano; Giudici, Paolo
2008-08-27
A first attempt at a semiquantitative study of molecular weight (MW) and molecular weight distribution (MWD) in cooked grape must and traditional balsamic vinegar (TBV) with increasing well-defined age was performed by high-performance liquid size exclusion chromatography (SEC) using dual detection, that is, differential refractive index (DRI) and absorbance (UV-vis) based detectors. With this aim, MW and MWD, including number- and weight-average MW and polydispersity, were determined with respect to a secondary standard and then analyzed. All investigated vinegar samples were recognized as compositionally and structurally heterogeneous blends of copolymers (melanoidins) spreading over a wide range of molecular sizes: the relative MW ranged from 2 to >2000 kDa. The extent of the polymerization reactions was in agreement with the TBV browning kinetics. MWD parameters varied asymptotically toward either upper or lower limits during aging, reflecting a nonequilibrium status of the balance between polymerization and depolymerization reactions in TBV. MWD parameters were proposed as potential aging markers of TBV.
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More Effective Distributed ML via a Stale Synchronous Parallel Parameter Server
Ho, Qirong; Cipar, James; Cui, Henggang; Kim, Jin Kyu; Lee, Seunghak; Gibbons, Phillip B.; Gibson, Garth A.; Ganger, Gregory R.; Xing, Eric P.
2014-01-01
We propose a parameter server system for distributed ML, which follows a Stale Synchronous Parallel (SSP) model of computation that maximizes the time computational workers spend doing useful work on ML algorithms, while still providing correctness guarantees. The parameter server provides an easy-to-use shared interface for read/write access to an ML model’s values (parameters and variables), and the SSP model allows distributed workers to read older, stale versions of these values from a local cache, instead of waiting to get them from a central storage. This significantly increases the proportion of time workers spend computing, as opposed to waiting. Furthermore, the SSP model ensures ML algorithm correctness by limiting the maximum age of the stale values. We provide a proof of correctness under SSP, as well as empirical results demonstrating that the SSP model achieves faster algorithm convergence on several different ML problems, compared to fully-synchronous and asynchronous schemes. PMID:25400488
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A novel generalized normal distribution for human longevity and other negatively skewed data.
Robertson, Henry T; Allison, David B
2012-01-01
Negatively skewed data arise occasionally in statistical practice; perhaps the most familiar example is the distribution of human longevity. Although other generalizations of the normal distribution exist, we demonstrate a new alternative that apparently fits human longevity data better. We propose an alternative approach of a normal distribution whose scale parameter is conditioned on attained age. This approach is consistent with previous findings that longevity conditioned on survival to the modal age behaves like a normal distribution. We derive such a distribution and demonstrate its accuracy in modeling human longevity data from life tables. The new distribution is characterized by 1. An intuitively straightforward genesis; 2. Closed forms for the pdf, cdf, mode, quantile, and hazard functions; and 3. Accessibility to non-statisticians, based on its close relationship to the normal distribution.
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A Novel Generalized Normal Distribution for Human Longevity and other Negatively Skewed Data
Robertson, Henry T.; Allison, David B.
2012-01-01
Negatively skewed data arise occasionally in statistical practice; perhaps the most familiar example is the distribution of human longevity. Although other generalizations of the normal distribution exist, we demonstrate a new alternative that apparently fits human longevity data better. We propose an alternative approach of a normal distribution whose scale parameter is conditioned on attained age. This approach is consistent with previous findings that longevity conditioned on survival to the modal age behaves like a normal distribution. We derive such a distribution and demonstrate its accuracy in modeling human longevity data from life tables. The new distribution is characterized by 1. An intuitively straightforward genesis; 2. Closed forms for the pdf, cdf, mode, quantile, and hazard functions; and 3. Accessibility to non-statisticians, based on its close relationship to the normal distribution. PMID:22623974
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Simulating Bubble Plumes from Breaking Waves with a Forced-Air Venturi
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Long, M. S.; Keene, W. C.; Maben, J. R.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Duplessis, P.; Kieber, D. J.; Beaupre, S. R.; Frossard, A. A.; Kinsey, J. D.; Zhu, Y.; Lu, X.; Bisgrove, J.
2017-12-01
It has been hypothesized that the size distribution of bubbles in subsurface seawater is a major factor that modulates the corresponding size distribution of primary marine aerosol (PMA) generated when those bubbles burst at the air-water interface. A primary physical control of the bubble size distribution produced by wave breaking is the associated turbulence that disintegrates larger bubbles into smaller ones. This leads to two characteristic features of bubble size distributions: (1) the Hinze scale which reflects a bubble size above which disintegration is possible based on turbulence intensity and (2) the slopes of log-linear regressions of the size distribution on either side of the Hinze scale that indicate the state of plume evolution or age. A Venturi with tunable seawater and forced air flow rates was designed and deployed in an artificial PMA generator to produce bubble plumes representative of breaking waves. This approach provides direct control of turbulence intensity and, thus, the resulting bubble size distribution characterizable by observations of the Hinze scale and the simulated plume age over a range of known air detrainment rates. Evaluation of performance in different seawater types over the western North Atlantic demonstrated that the Venturi produced bubble plumes with parameter values that bracket the range of those observed in laboratory and field experiments. Specifically, the seawater flow rate modulated the value of the Hinze scale while the forced-air flow rate modulated the plume age parameters. Results indicate that the size distribution of sub-surface bubbles within the generator did not significantly modulate the corresponding number size distribution of PMA produced via bubble bursting.
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Star formation history: Modeling of visual binaries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gebrehiwot, Y. M.; Tessema, S. B.; Malkov, O. Yu.; Kovaleva, D. A.; Sytov, A. Yu.; Tutukov, A. V.
2018-05-01
Most stars form in binary or multiple systems. Their evolution is defined by masses of components, orbital separation and eccentricity. In order to understand star formation and evolutionary processes, it is vital to find distributions of physical parameters of binaries. We have carried out Monte Carlo simulations in which we simulate different pairing scenarios: random pairing, primary-constrained pairing, split-core pairing, and total and primary pairing in order to get distributions of binaries over physical parameters at birth. Next, for comparison with observations, we account for stellar evolution and selection effects. Brightness, radius, temperature, and other parameters of components are assigned or calculated according to approximate relations for stars in different evolutionary stages (main-sequence stars, red giants, white dwarfs, relativistic objects). Evolutionary stage is defined as a function of system age and component masses. We compare our results with the observed IMF, binarity rate, and binary mass-ratio distributions for field visual binaries to find initial distributions and pairing scenarios that produce observed distributions.
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Non-Fickian dispersion of groundwater age
Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.
2014-01-01
We expand the governing equation of groundwater age to account for non-Fickian dispersive fluxes using continuous random walks. Groundwater age is included as an additional (fifth) dimension on which the volumetric mass density of water is distributed and we follow the classical random walk derivation now in five dimensions. The general solution of the random walk recovers the previous conventional model of age when the low order moments of the transition density functions remain finite at their limits and describes non-Fickian age distributions when the transition densities diverge. Previously published transition densities are then used to show how the added dimension in age affects the governing differential equations. Depending on which transition densities diverge, the resulting models may be nonlocal in time, space, or age and can describe asymptotic or pre-asymptotic dispersion. A joint distribution function of time and age transitions is developed as a conditional probability and a natural result of this is that time and age must always have identical transition rate functions. This implies that a transition density defined for age can substitute for a density in time and this has implications for transport model parameter estimation. We present examples of simulated age distributions from a geologically based, heterogeneous domain that exhibit non-Fickian behavior and show that the non-Fickian model provides better descriptions of the distributions than the Fickian model. PMID:24976651
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Cell population data in neonates: differences by age group and associations with perinatal factors.
Lee, J; Kim, S Y; Lee, W; Han, K; Sung, I K
2015-10-01
Cell population data (CPD) describe physical parameters of white blood cell subpopulations and are reported to be of some value in the diagnosis of sepsis in neonates. Before using the CPD for diagnosing sepsis, the baseline features of the CPD distribution in healthy neonates should be clarified. The aim of this study was to compare the CPD distributions of healthy neonates and other age groups and to identify perinatal factors that are associated with changes in the CPD distribution of healthy neonates. The CPD distribution of 69 samples from term neonates was compared with adolescents and adults. The CPD distribution of 163 samples from healthy neonates was analyzed in association with perinatal factors, including gestational age, chronologic age, birthweight, delivery mode, premature rupture of membranes, diabetes, and pregnancy-induced hypertension. The CPD distribution for term neonates was significantly different from those in adolescents and adults. The mean lymphocyte volume showed a negative correlation with gestational age at birth (r = -0.305; P < 0.01). The mean neutrophil volume was smaller in the cesarean section group than in the normal delivery group. The small for gestational age (SGA) group had smaller mean neutrophil volume and mean monocyte volume than the appropriate for gestational age group. The CPD distribution of healthy neonates differed from those of adolescents or adults, and the differences were associated with gestational age, delivery mode, and being SGA. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Age-related changes in human vestibulo-ocular reflexes: Sinusoidal rotation and caloric tests
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Peterka, R. J.; Black, F. O.; Schoenhoff, M. B.
1989-01-01
The dynamic response properties of horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) were characterized in 216 human subjects ranging in age from 7 to 81 years. The object of this cross-sectional study was to determine the effects of aging on VOR dynamics, and to identify the distributions of parameters which describe VOR responses to caloric and to sinusoidal rotational stimuli in a putatively normal population. Caloric test parameters showed no consistent trend with age. Rotation test parameters showed declining response amplitude and slightly less compensatory response phase with increasing age. The magnitudes of these changes were not large relative to the variability within the population. The age-related trends in VOR were not consistent with the anatomic changes in the periphery reported by others which showed an increasing rate of peripheral hair cell and nerve fiber loss in subjects over 55 years. The poor correlation between physiological and anatomical data suggest that adaptive mechanisms in the central nervous system are important in maintaining the VOR.
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Rebec, Katja Malovrh; Klanjšek-Gunde, Marta; Bizjak, Grega; Kobav, Matej B
2015-01-01
Ergonomic science at work and living places should appraise human factors concerning the photobiological effects of lighting. Thorough knowledge on this subject has been gained in the past; however, few attempts have been made to propose suitable evaluation parameters. The blue light hazard and its influence on melatonin secretion in age-dependent observers is considered in this paper and parameters for its evaluation are proposed. New parameters were applied to analyse the effects of white light-emitting diode (LED) light sources and to compare them with the currently applied light sources. The photobiological effects of light sources with the same illuminance but different spectral power distribution were determined for healthy 4-76-year-old observers. The suitability of new parameters is discussed. Correlated colour temperature, the only parameter currently used to assess photobiological effects, is evaluated and compared to new parameters.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Filippazzo, Joseph C.; Rice, Emily L.; Faherty, Jacqueline
We combine optical, near-infrared, and mid-infrared spectra and photometry to construct expanded spectral energy distributions for 145 field age (>500 Myr) and 53 young (lower age estimate <500 Myr) ultracool dwarfs (M6-T9). This range of spectral types includes very low mass stars, brown dwarfs, and planetary mass objects, providing fundamental parameters across both the hydrogen and deuterium burning minimum masses for the largest sample assembled to date. A subsample of 29 objects have well constrained ages as probable members of a nearby young moving group. We use 182 parallaxes and 16 kinematic distances to determine precise bolometric luminosities (L{sub bol})more » and radius estimates from evolutionary models give semi-empirical effective temperatures (T{sub eff}) for the full range of young and field age late-M, L, and T dwarfs. We construct age-sensitive relationships of luminosity, temperature, and absolute magnitude as functions of spectral type and absolute magnitude to disentangle the effects of degenerate physical parameters such as T{sub eff}, surface gravity, and clouds on spectral morphology. We report bolometric corrections in J for both field age and young objects and find differences of up to a magnitude for late-L dwarfs. Our correction in Ks shows a larger dispersion but not necessarily a different relationship for young and field age sequences. We also characterize the NIR–MIR reddening of low gravity L dwarfs and identify a systematically cooler T{sub eff} of up to 300 K from field age objects of the same spectral type and 400 K cooler from field age objects of the same M{sub H} magnitude.« less
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Rigby, Robert A; Stasinopoulos, D Mikis
2004-10-15
The Box-Cox power exponential (BCPE) distribution, developed in this paper, provides a model for a dependent variable Y exhibiting both skewness and kurtosis (leptokurtosis or platykurtosis). The distribution is defined by a power transformation Y(nu) having a shifted and scaled (truncated) standard power exponential distribution with parameter tau. The distribution has four parameters and is denoted BCPE (mu,sigma,nu,tau). The parameters, mu, sigma, nu and tau, may be interpreted as relating to location (median), scale (approximate coefficient of variation), skewness (transformation to symmetry) and kurtosis (power exponential parameter), respectively. Smooth centile curves are obtained by modelling each of the four parameters of the distribution as a smooth non-parametric function of an explanatory variable. A Fisher scoring algorithm is used to fit the non-parametric model by maximizing a penalized likelihood. The first and expected second and cross derivatives of the likelihood, with respect to mu, sigma, nu and tau, required for the algorithm, are provided. The centiles of the BCPE distribution are easy to calculate, so it is highly suited to centile estimation. This application of the BCPE distribution to smooth centile estimation provides a generalization of the LMS method of the centile estimation to data exhibiting kurtosis (as well as skewness) different from that of a normal distribution and is named here the LMSP method of centile estimation. The LMSP method of centile estimation is applied to modelling the body mass index of Dutch males against age. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L
2013-09-01
The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Huang, Dan; Chen, Xuejuan; Gong, Qi; Yuan, Chaoqun; Ding, Hui; Bai, Jing; Zhu, Hui; Fu, Zhujun; Yu, Rongbin; Liu, Hu
2016-01-01
This survey was conducted to determine the testability, distribution and associations of ocular biometric parameters in Chinese preschool children. Ocular biometric examinations, including the axial length (AL) and corneal radius of curvature (CR), were conducted on 1,688 3-year-old subjects by using an IOLMaster in August 2015. Anthropometric parameters, including height and weight, were measured according to a standardized protocol, and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. The testability was 93.7% for the AL and 78.6% for the CR overall, and both measures improved with age. Girls performed slightly better in AL measurements (P = 0.08), and the difference in CR was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The AL distribution was normal in girls (P = 0.12), whereas it was not in boys (P < 0.05). For CR1, all subgroups presented normal distributions (P = 0.16 for boys; P = 0.20 for girls), but the distribution varied when the subgroups were combined (P < 0.05). CR2 presented a normal distribution (P = 0.11), whereas the AL/CR ratio was abnormal (P < 0.001). Boys exhibited a significantly longer AL, a greater CR and a greater AL/CR ratio than girls (all P < 0.001). PMID:27384307
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Open star clusters and Galactic structure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Joshi, Yogesh C.
2018-04-01
In order to understand the Galactic structure, we perform a statistical analysis of the distribution of various cluster parameters based on an almost complete sample of Galactic open clusters yet available. The geometrical and physical characteristics of a large number of open clusters given in the MWSC catalogue are used to study the spatial distribution of clusters in the Galaxy and determine the scale height, solar offset, local mass density and distribution of reddening material in the solar neighbourhood. We also explored the mass-radius and mass-age relations in the Galactic open star clusters. We find that the estimated parameters of the Galactic disk are largely influenced by the choice of cluster sample.
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Gu, Shoou-Lian Hwang; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Tzang, Shyh-Weir; Hsu, Wen-Yau
2013-11-01
We investigated the three parameters (mu, sigma, tau) of ex-Gaussian distribution of RT derived from the Conners' continuous performance test (CCPT) and examined the moderating effects of the energetic factors (the inter-stimulus intervals (ISIs) and Blocks) among these three parameters, especially tau, an index describing the positive skew of RT distribution. We assessed 195 adolescents with DSM-IV ADHD, and 90 typically developing (TD) adolescents, aged 10-16. Participants and their parents received psychiatric interviews to confirm the diagnosis of ADHD and other psychiatric disorders. Participants also received intelligence (WISC-III) and CCPT assessments. We found that participants with ADHD had a smaller mu, and larger tau. As the ISI/Block increased, the magnitude of group difference in tau increased. Among the three ex-Gaussian parameters, tau was positively associated with omission errors, and mu was negatively associated with commission errors. The moderating effects of ISIs and Blocks on tau parameters suggested that the ex-Gaussian parameters could offer more information about the attention state in vigilance task, especially in ADHD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Soukhova, N V; Fesenko, S V; Klein, D; Spiridonov, S I; Sanzharova, N I; Badot, P M
2003-01-01
The distributions of 137Cs among annual rings of Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula at four experimental sites located in the most contaminated areas in the Russian territory after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 were studied. Trees of different ages were sampled from four forest sites with different tree compositions and soil properties. The data analysis shows that 137Cs is very mobile in wood and the 1986 rings do not show the highest contamination. The difference between pine and birch in the pattern of radial 137Cs distribution can be satisfactorily explained by the difference in radial ray composition. 137Cs radial distribution in the wood can be described as the sum of two exponential functions for both species. The function parameters are height, age and species dependent. The distribution of 137Cs in birch wood reveals much more pronounced dependence on site characteristics and/or the age of trees than pines. The data obtained can be used to assess 137Cs content in wood.
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Baseline values of immunologic parameters in the lizard Salvator merianae (Teiidae, Squamata)
Mestre, Ana Paula; Amavet, Patricia Susana; Siroski, Pablo Ariel
2017-01-01
The genus Salvator is widely distributed throughout South America. In Argentina, the species most abundant widely distributed is Salvator merianae. Particularly in Santa Fe province, the area occupied by populations of these lizards overlaps with areas where agriculture was extended. With the aim of established baseline values for four immunologic biomarkers widely used, 36 tegu lizards were evaluated tacking into account different age classes and both sexes. Total leukocyte counts were not different between age classes. Of the leucocytes count, eosinophils levels were higher in neonates compared with juvenile and adults; nevertheless, the heterophils group was the most prevalent leukocyte in the peripheral blood in all age classes. Lymphocytes, monocytes, heterophils, azurophils and basophils levels did not differ with age. Natural antibodies titres were higher in the adults compared with neonates and juveniles lizards. Lastly, complement system activity was low in neonates compared with juveniles and adults. Statistical analysis within each age group showed that gender was not a factor in the outcomes. Based on the results, we concluded that S. merianae demonstrated age (but not gender) related differences in the immune parameters analyzed. Having established baseline values for these four widely-used immunologic biomarkers, ongoing studies will seek to optimize the use of the S. merianae model in future research. PMID:28652981
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Baseline values of immunologic parameters in the lizard Salvator merianae (Teiidae, Squamata).
Mestre, Ana Paula; Amavet, Patricia Susana; Siroski, Pablo Ariel
2017-01-01
The genus Salvator is widely distributed throughout South America. In Argentina, the species most abundant widely distributed is Salvator merianae . Particularly in Santa Fe province, the area occupied by populations of these lizards overlaps with areas where agriculture was extended. With the aim of established baseline values for four immunologic biomarkers widely used, 36 tegu lizards were evaluated tacking into account different age classes and both sexes. Total leukocyte counts were not different between age classes. Of the leucocytes count, eosinophils levels were higher in neonates compared with juvenile and adults; nevertheless, the heterophils group was the most prevalent leukocyte in the peripheral blood in all age classes. Lymphocytes, monocytes, heterophils, azurophils and basophils levels did not differ with age. Natural antibodies titres were higher in the adults compared with neonates and juveniles lizards. Lastly, complement system activity was low in neonates compared with juveniles and adults. Statistical analysis within each age group showed that gender was not a factor in the outcomes. Based on the results, we concluded that S. merianae demonstrated age (but not gender) related differences in the immune parameters analyzed. Having established baseline values for these four widely-used immunologic biomarkers, ongoing studies will seek to optimize the use of the S. merianae model in future research.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matsui, H.; Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Fast, J. D.; Takigawa, M.
2014-09-01
Number concentrations, size distributions, and mixing states of aerosols are essential parameters for accurate estimations of aerosol direct and indirect effects. In this study, we develop an aerosol module, designated the Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation (ATRAS), that can explicitly represent these parameters by considering new particle formation (NPF), black carbon (BC) aging, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) processes. A two-dimensional bin representation is used for particles with dry diameters from 40 nm to 10 μm to resolve both aerosol sizes (12 bins) and BC mixing states (10 bins) for a total of 120 bins. The particles with diameters between 1 and 40 nm are resolved using additional eight size bins to calculate NPF. The ATRAS module is implemented in the WRF-Chem model and applied to examine the sensitivity of simulated mass, number, size distributions, and optical and radiative parameters of aerosols to NPF, BC aging, and SOA processes over East Asia during the spring of 2009. The BC absorption enhancement by coating materials is about 50% over East Asia during the spring, and the contribution of SOA processes to the absorption enhancement is estimated to be 10-20% over northern East Asia and 20-35% over southern East Asia. A clear north-south contrast is also found between the impacts of NPF and SOA processes on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations: NPF increases CCN concentrations at higher supersaturations (smaller particles) over northern East Asia, whereas SOA increases CCN concentrations at lower supersaturations (larger particles) over southern East Asia. The application of ATRAS in East Asia also shows that the impact of each process on each optical and radiative parameter depends strongly on the process and the parameter in question. The module can be used in the future as a benchmark model to evaluate the accuracy of simpler aerosol models and examine interactions between NPF, BC aging, and SOA processes under different meteorological conditions and emissions.
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Payne, Brennan R; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A L
2014-06-01
We report a secondary data analysis investigating age differences in the effects of clause and sentence wrap-up on reading time distributions during sentence comprehension. Residual word-by-word self-paced reading times were fit to the ex-Gaussian distribution to examine age differences in the effects of clause and sentence wrap-up on both the location and shape of participants' reaction time (RT) distributions. The ex-Gaussian distribution showed good fit to the data in both younger and older adults. Sentence wrap-up increased the central tendency, the variability, and the tail of the distribution, and these effects were exaggerated among the old. In contrast, clause wrap-up influenced the tail of the distribution only, and did so differentially for older adults. Effects were confirmed via nonparametric vincentile plots. Individual differences in visual acuity, working memory, speed of processing, and verbal ability were differentially related to ex-Gaussian parameters reflecting wrap-up effects on underlying reading time distributions. These findings argue against simple pause mechanisms to explain end-of-clause and end-of-sentence reading time patterns; rather, the findings are consistent with a cognitively effortful view of wrap-up and suggest that age and individual differences in attentional allocation to semantic integration during reading, as revealed by RT distribution analyses, play an important role in sentence understanding. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.
2018-03-01
The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure and could largely help to reduce uncertainties in model predictions. Furthermore, by considering age and transit times of C in vegetation compartments as distributions, not only their mean values, we obtain additional insights into the temporal dynamics of carbon use, storage, and allocation to plant parts, which not only depends on the rate at which this C is transferred in and out of the compartments but also on the stochastic nature of the process itself.
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Influence of eye biometrics and corneal micro-structure on noncontact tonometry.
Jesus, Danilo A; Majewska, Małgorzata; Krzyżanowska-Berkowska, Patrycja; Iskander, D Robert
2017-01-01
Tonometry is widely used as the main screening tool supporting glaucoma diagnosis. Still, its accuracy could be improved if full knowledge about the variation of the corneal biomechanical properties was available. In this study, Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) speckle statistics are used to infer the organisation of the corneal micro-structure and hence, to analyse its influence on intraocular pressure (IOP) measurements. Fifty-six subjects were recruited for this prospective study. Macro and micro-structural corneal parameters as well as subject age were considered. Macro-structural analysis included the parameters that are associated with the ocular anatomy, such as central corneal thickness (CCT), corneal radius, axial length, anterior chamber depth and white-to-white corneal diameter. Micro-structural parameters which included OCT speckle statistics were related to the internal organisation of the corneal tissue and its physiological changes during lifetime. The corneal speckle obtained from OCT was modelled with the Generalised Gamma (GG) distribution that is characterised with a scale parameter and two shape parameters. In macro-structure analysis, only CCT showed a statistically significant correlation with IOP (R2 = 0.25, p<0.001). The scale parameter and the ratio of the shape parameters of GG distribution showed statistically significant correlation with IOP (R2 = 0.19, p<0.001 and R2 = 0.17, p<0.001, respectively). For the studied group, a weak, although significant correlation was found between age and IOP (R2 = 0.053, p = 0.04). Forward stepwise regression showed that CCT and the scale parameter of the Generalised Gamma distribution can be combined in a regression model (R2 = 0.39, p<0.001) to study the role of the corneal structure on IOP. We show, for the first time, that corneal micro-structure influences the IOP measurements obtained from noncontact tonometry. OCT speckle statistics can be employed to learn about the corneal micro-structure and hence, to further calibrate the IOP measurements.
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Influence of eye biometrics and corneal micro-structure on noncontact tonometry
Majewska, Małgorzata; Krzyżanowska-Berkowska, Patrycja; Iskander, D. Robert
2017-01-01
Purpose Tonometry is widely used as the main screening tool supporting glaucoma diagnosis. Still, its accuracy could be improved if full knowledge about the variation of the corneal biomechanical properties was available. In this study, Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) speckle statistics are used to infer the organisation of the corneal micro-structure and hence, to analyse its influence on intraocular pressure (IOP) measurements. Methods Fifty-six subjects were recruited for this prospective study. Macro and micro-structural corneal parameters as well as subject age were considered. Macro-structural analysis included the parameters that are associated with the ocular anatomy, such as central corneal thickness (CCT), corneal radius, axial length, anterior chamber depth and white-to-white corneal diameter. Micro-structural parameters which included OCT speckle statistics were related to the internal organisation of the corneal tissue and its physiological changes during lifetime. The corneal speckle obtained from OCT was modelled with the Generalised Gamma (GG) distribution that is characterised with a scale parameter and two shape parameters. Results In macro-structure analysis, only CCT showed a statistically significant correlation with IOP (R2 = 0.25, p<0.001). The scale parameter and the ratio of the shape parameters of GG distribution showed statistically significant correlation with IOP (R2 = 0.19, p<0.001 and R2 = 0.17, p<0.001, respectively). For the studied group, a weak, although significant correlation was found between age and IOP (R2 = 0.053, p = 0.04). Forward stepwise regression showed that CCT and the scale parameter of the Generalised Gamma distribution can be combined in a regression model (R2 = 0.39, p<0.001) to study the role of the corneal structure on IOP. Conclusions We show, for the first time, that corneal micro-structure influences the IOP measurements obtained from noncontact tonometry. OCT speckle statistics can be employed to learn about the corneal micro-structure and hence, to further calibrate the IOP measurements. PMID:28472178
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Allen, Bruce C; Hack, C Eric; Clewell, Harvey J
2007-08-01
A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16-49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 microg/kg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 microg/kg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability in exposure within the population of U.S. women of childbearing age may be less than previously assumed.
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Oguchi, Masahiro; Fuse, Masaaki
2015-02-03
Product lifespan estimates are important information for understanding progress toward sustainable consumption and estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products. Publications reported actual lifespan of products; however, quantitative data are still limited for many countries and years. This study presents regional and longitudinal estimation of lifespan distribution of consumer durables, taking passenger cars as an example, and proposes a simplified method for estimating product lifespan distribution. We estimated lifespan distribution parameters for 17 countries based on the age profile of in-use cars. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the shape parameter of the lifespan distribution can be replaced by a constant value for all the countries and years. This enabled a simplified estimation that does not require detailed data on the age profile. Applying the simplified method, we estimated the trend in average lifespans of passenger cars from 2000 to 2009 for 20 countries. Average lifespan differed greatly between countries (9-23 years) and was increasing in many countries. This suggests consumer behavior differs greatly among countries and has changed over time, even in developed countries. The results suggest that inappropriate assumptions of average lifespan may cause significant inaccuracy in estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products.
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Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; ...
2013-10-15
The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is available and when the real groundwater distribution is more complex than can be represented by simple mathematical forms.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh
The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is available and when the real groundwater distribution is more complex than can be represented by simple mathematical forms.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Danesh Yazdi, M.; Klaus, J.; Condon, L. E.; Maxwell, R. M.
2017-12-01
Recent advancements in analytical solutions to quantify water and solute time-variant travel time distributions (TTDs) and the related StorAge Selection (SAS) functions synthesize catchment complexity into a simplified, lumped representation. While these analytical approaches are easy and efficient in application, they require high frequency hydrochemical data for parameter estimation. Alternatively, integrated hydrologic models coupled to Lagrangian particle-tracking approaches can directly simulate age under different catchment geometries and complexity at a greater computational expense. Here, we compare and contrast the two approaches by exploring the influence of the spatial distribution of subsurface heterogeneity, interactions between distinct flow domains, diversity of flow pathways, and recharge rate on the shape of TTDs and the relating SAS functions. To this end, we use a parallel three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater model, ParFlow, to solve for the velocity fields in the subsurface. A particle-tracking model, SLIM, is then implemented to determine the age distributions at every real time and domain location, facilitating a direct characterization of the SAS functions as opposed to analytical approaches requiring calibration of such functions. Steady-state results reveal that the assumption of random age sampling scheme might only hold in the saturated region of homogeneous catchments resulting in an exponential TTD. This assumption is however violated when the vadose zone is included as the underlying SAS function gives a higher preference to older ages. The dynamical variability of the true SAS functions is also shown to be largely masked by the smooth analytical SAS functions. As the variability of subsurface spatial heterogeneity increases, the shape of TTD approaches a power-law distribution function, including a broader distribution of shorter and longer travel times. We further found that larger (smaller) magnitude of effective precipitation shifts the scale of TTD towards younger (older) travel times, while the shape of the TTD remains untouched. This work constitutes a first step in linking a numerical transport model and analytical solutions of TTD to study their assumptions and limitations, providing physical inferences for empirical parameters.
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Phenomenological characteristic of the electron component in gamma-quanta initiated showers
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nikolsky, S. I.; Stamenov, J. N.; Ushev, S. Z.
1985-01-01
The phenomenological characteristics of the electron component in showers initiated by primary gamma-quanta were analyzed on the basis of the Tien Shan experimental data. It is shown that the lateral distribution of the electrons ion gamma-quanta initiated showers can be described with NKG - function with age parameters bar S equals 0, 76 plus or minus 0, 02, different from the same parameter for normal showers with the same size bar S equals 0, 85 plus or minus 0, 01. The lateral distribution of the correspondent electron energy flux in gamma-quanta initiated showers is steeper as in normal cosmic ray showers.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonatto, C.; Lima, E. F.; Bica, E.
2012-04-01
Context. Usually, important parameters of young, low-mass star clusters are very difficult to obtain by means of photometry, especially when differential reddening and/or binaries occur in large amounts. Aims: We present a semi-analytical approach (ASAmin) that, when applied to the Hess diagram of a young star cluster, is able to retrieve the values of mass, age, star-formation spread, distance modulus, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Methods: The global optimisation method known as adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) is used to minimise the residuals between the observed and simulated Hess diagrams of a star cluster. The simulations are realistic and take the most relevant parameters of young clusters into account. Important features of the simulations are a normal (Gaussian) differential reddening distribution, a time-decreasing star-formation rate, the unresolved binaries, and the smearing effect produced by photometric uncertainties on Hess diagrams. Free parameters are cluster mass, age, distance modulus, star-formation spread, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Results: Tests with model clusters built with parameters spanning a broad range of values show that ASAmin retrieves the input values with a high precision for cluster mass, distance modulus, and foreground reddening, but they are somewhat lower for the remaining parameters. Given the statistical nature of the simulations, several runs should be performed to obtain significant convergence patterns. Specifically, we find that the retrieved (absolute minimum) parameters converge to mean values with a low dispersion as the Hess residuals decrease. When applied to actual young clusters, the retrieved parameters follow convergence patterns similar to the models. We show how the stochasticity associated with the early phases may affect the results, especially in low-mass clusters. This effect can be minimised by averaging out several twin clusters in the simulated Hess diagrams. Conclusions: Even for low-mass star clusters, ASAmin is sensitive to the values of cluster mass, age, distance modulus, star-formation spread, foreground and differential reddening, and to a lesser degree, binary fraction. Compared with simpler approaches, including binaries, a decaying star-formation rate, and a normally distributed differential reddening appears to yield more constrained parameters, especially the mass, age, and distance from the Sun. A robust determination of cluster parameters may have a positive impact on many fields. For instance, age, mass, and binary fraction are important for establishing the dynamical state of a cluster or for deriving a more precise star-formation rate in the Galaxy.
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Probability distributions of the electroencephalogram envelope of preterm infants.
Saji, Ryoya; Hirasawa, Kyoko; Ito, Masako; Kusuda, Satoshi; Konishi, Yukuo; Taga, Gentaro
2015-06-01
To determine the stationary characteristics of electroencephalogram (EEG) envelopes for prematurely born (preterm) infants and investigate the intrinsic characteristics of early brain development in preterm infants. Twenty neurologically normal sets of EEGs recorded in infants with a post-conceptional age (PCA) range of 26-44 weeks (mean 37.5 ± 5.0 weeks) were analyzed. Hilbert transform was applied to extract the envelope. We determined the suitable probability distribution of the envelope and performed a statistical analysis. It was found that (i) the probability distributions for preterm EEG envelopes were best fitted by lognormal distributions at 38 weeks PCA or less, and by gamma distributions at 44 weeks PCA; (ii) the scale parameter of the lognormal distribution had positive correlations with PCA as well as a strong negative correlation with the percentage of low-voltage activity; (iii) the shape parameter of the lognormal distribution had significant positive correlations with PCA; (iv) the statistics of mode showed significant linear relationships with PCA, and, therefore, it was considered a useful index in PCA prediction. These statistics, including the scale parameter of the lognormal distribution and the skewness and mode derived from a suitable probability distribution, may be good indexes for estimating stationary nature in developing brain activity in preterm infants. The stationary characteristics, such as discontinuity, asymmetry, and unimodality, of preterm EEGs are well indicated by the statistics estimated from the probability distribution of the preterm EEG envelopes. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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VizieR Online Data Catalog: Be star rotational velocities distribution (Zorec+, 2016)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zorec, J.; Fremat, Y.; Domiciano de Souza, A.; Royer, F.; Cidale, L.; Hubert, A.-M.; Semaan, T.; Martayan, C.; Cochetti, Y. R.; Arias, M. L.; Aidelman, Y.; Stee, P.
2016-06-01
Table 1 contains apparent fundamental parameters of the 233 Galactic Be stars. For each Be star is given the HD number, the effective temperature, effective surface gravity and bolometric luminosity. They correspond to the parameters of a plan parallel model of stellar atmosphere that fits the energy distribution of the stellar apparent hemisphere rotationally deformed. In Table 1 are also given the color excess E(B-V) and the vsini rotation parameter determined with model atmospheres of rigidly rotating stars. For each parameter is given the 1sigma uncertainty. In the notes are given the authors that produced some reported the data or the methods used to obtain the data. Table 4 contains parent-non-rotating-counterpart fundamental parameters of 233 Be stars: effective temperature, effective surface gravity, bolometric luminosity in solar units, stellar mass in solar units, fractional main-sequence stellar age, pnrc-apparent rotational velocity, critical velocity, ratio of centrifugal-force to gravity in the equator, inclination angle of the rotational axis. (2 data files).
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Koenig, Agnès; Weyermann, Céline
2018-01-01
The development of ink dating methods requires an important amount of work in order to be reliably applicable in practice. Major tasks include the definition of ageing parameters to monitor ink ageing. An adequate parameter should ideally fulfil the following criteria: it should evolve as a function of time in a monotonic way, be measurable in a majority of ink entries, be as accurate and reproducible as possible, and finally it should not be influenced too much by transfer and storage conditions. This work aimed at evaluating the potential of seven ageing parameters for ink dating purposes: the phenoxyethanol quantity, relative peak areas (RPA), three solvent loss ratios (R%, R%*, NR%) and two solvent loss parameters (R NORM, NR NORM ). These were calculated over approximately one year for 25 inks selected from a large database to represent different ageing behaviours. Ink entries were analysed using liquid extraction followed by GC/MS analysis. Results showed that natural ageing parameters (NR% and NR NORM ) were not suitable ageing parameters for ink entries older than a few weeks. RPA used other compounds present in ink formulations in combination to PE in order to normalise the results. However, it presented particular difficulties as they could not be defined for all inks and were thus applicable only for 64% of the studied inks. Finally, the PE quantity, R% and R NORM allowed to follow the ageing of the selected inks over the whole time frame and were identified as the most promising. These were thus selected to test three different interpretation models in the second part of this article. The possibilities and limitations of ink dating methods will be discussed in a legal perspective. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A method to estimate stellar ages from kinematical data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Almeida-Fernandes, F.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.
2018-05-01
We present a method to build a probability density function (PDF) for the age of a star based on its peculiar velocities U, V, and W and its orbital eccentricity. The sample used in this work comes from the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) that contains the spatial velocities, orbital eccentricities, and isochronal ages for about 14 000 stars. Using the GCS stars, we fitted the parameters that describe the relations between the distributions of kinematical properties and age. This parametrization allows us to obtain an age probability from the kinematical data. From this age PDF, we estimate an individual average age for the star using the most likely age and the expected age. We have obtained the stellar age PDF for the age of 9102 stars from the GCS and have shown that the distribution of individual ages derived from our method is in good agreement with the distribution of isochronal ages. We also observe a decline in the mean metallicity with our ages for stars younger than 7 Gyr, similar to the one observed for isochronal ages. This method can be useful for the estimation of rough stellar ages for those stars that fall in areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where isochrones are tightly crowded. As an example of this method, we estimate the age of Trappist-1, which is a M8V star, obtaining the age of t(UVW) = 12.50(+0.29 - 6.23) Gyr.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilusz, D. C.; Maxwell, R. M.; Buda, A. R.; Ball, W. P.; Harman, C. J.
2016-12-01
The catchment transit-time distribution (TTD) is the time-varying, probabilistic distribution of water travel times through a watershed. The TTD is increasingly recognized as a useful descriptor of a catchment's flow and transport processes. However, TTDs are temporally complex and cannot be observed directly at watershed scale. Estimates of TTDs depend on available environmental tracers (such as stable water isotopes) and an assumed model whose parameters can be inverted from tracer data. All tracers have limitations though, such as (typically) short periods of observation or non-conservative behavior. As a result, models that faithfully simulate tracer observations may nonetheless yield TTD estimates with significant errors at certain times and water ages, conditioned on the tracer data available and the model structure. Recent advances have shown that time-varying catchment TTDs can be parsimoniously modeled by the lumped parameter rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) model, in which an rSAS function relates the distribution of water ages in outflows to the composition of age-ranked water in storage. Like other TTD models, rSAS is calibrated and evaluated against environmental tracer data, and the relative influence of tracer-dependent and model-dependent error on its TTD estimates is poorly understood. The purpose of this study is to benchmark the ability of different rSAS formulations to simulate TTDs in a complex, synthetic watershed where the lumped model can be calibrated and directly compared to a virtually "true" TTD. This experimental design allows for isolation of model-dependent error from tracer-dependent error. The integrated hydrologic model ParFlow with SLIM-FAST particle tracking code is used to simulate the watershed and its true TTD. To add field intelligence, the ParFlow model is populated with over forty years of hydrometric and physiographic data from the WE-38 subwatershed of the USDA's Mahantango Creek experimental catchment in PA, USA. The results are intended to give practical insight into tradeoffs between rSAS model structure and skill, and define a new performance benchmark to which other transit time models can be compared.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tian, Qingjiu; Chen, Jing M.; Zheng, Guang; Xia, Xueqi; Chen, Junying
2006-09-01
Forest ecosystem is an important component of terrestrial ecosystem and plays an important role in global changes. Aboveground biomass (AGB) of forest ecosystem is an important factor in global carbon cycle studies. The purpose of this study was to retrieve the yearly Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of forest from the 8-days-interval MODIS-LAI images of a year and produce a yearly NPP distribution map. The LAI, DBH (diameter at breast height), tree height, and tree age field were measured in different 80 plots for Chinese fir, Masson pine, bamboo, broadleaf, mix forest in Liping County. Based on the DEM image and Landsat TM images acquired on May 14th, 2000, the geometric correction and terrain correction were taken. In addition, the "6S"model was used to gain the surface reflectance image. Then the correlation between Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Reduced Simple Ratio (RSR) was built. Combined with the Landcover map, forest stand map, the LAI, aboveground biomass, tree age map were produced respectively. After that, the 8-days- interval LAI images of a year, meteorology data, soil data, forest stand image and Landcover image were inputted into the BEPS model to get the NPP spatial distribution. At last, the yearly NPP spatial distribution map with 30m spatial resolution was produced. The values in those forest ecological parameters distribution maps were quite consistent with those of field measurements. So it's possible, feasible and time-saving to estimate forest ecological parameters at a large scale by using remote sensing.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Matsui, H.; Koike, Makoto; Kondo, Yutaka
2014-09-30
Number concentrations, size distributions, and mixing states of aerosols are essential parameters for accurate estimation of aerosol direct and indirect effects. In this study, we developed an aerosol module, designated Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation (ATRAS), that can represent these parameters explicitly by considering new particle formation (NPF), black carbon (BC) aging, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) processes. A two-dimensional bin representation is used for particles with dry diameters from 40 nm to 10 µm to resolve both aerosol size (12 bins) and BC mixing state (10 bins) for a total of 120 bins. The particlesmore » with diameters from 1 to 40 nm are resolved using an additional 8 size bins to calculate NPF. The ATRAS module was implemented in the WRF-chem model and applied to examine the sensitivity of simulated mass, number, size distributions, and optical and radiative parameters of aerosols to NPF, BC aging and SOA processes over East Asia during the spring of 2009. BC absorption enhancement by coating materials was about 50% over East Asia during the spring, and the contribution of SOA processes to the absorption enhancement was estimated to be 10 – 20% over northern East Asia and 20 – 35% over southern East Asia. A clear north-south contrast was also found between the impacts of NPF and SOA processes on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations: NPF increased CCN concentrations at higher supersaturations (smaller particles) over northern East Asia, whereas SOA increased CCN concentrations at lower supersaturations (larger particles) over southern East Asia. Application of ATRAS to East Asia also showed that the impact of each process on each optical and radiative parameter depended strongly on the process and the parameter in question. The module can be used in the future as a benchmark model to evaluate the accuracy of simpler aerosol models and examine interactions between NPF, BC aging, and SOA processes under different meteorological conditions and emissions.« less
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Theoretical foundation for measuring the groundwater age distribution.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gardner, William Payton; Arnold, Bill Walter
2014-01-01
In this study, we use PFLOTRAN, a highly scalable, parallel, flow and reactive transport code to simulate the concentrations of 3H, 3He, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, SF6, 39Ar, 81Kr, 4He and themean groundwater age in heterogeneous fields on grids with an excess of 10 million nodes. We utilize this computational platform to simulate the concentration of multiple tracers in high-resolution, heterogeneous 2-D and 3-D domains, and calculate tracer-derived ages. Tracer-derived ages show systematic biases toward younger ages when the groundwater age distribution contains water older than the maximum tracer age. The deviation of the tracer-derived age distribution from the true groundwatermore » age distribution increases with increasing heterogeneity of the system. However, the effect of heterogeneity is diminished as the mean travel time gets closer the tracer age limit. Age distributions in 3-D domains differ significantly from 2-D domains. 3D simulations show decreased mean age, and less variance in age distribution for identical heterogeneity statistics. High-performance computing allows for investigation of tracer and groundwater age systematics in high-resolution domains, providing a platform for understanding and utilizing environmental tracer and groundwater age information in heterogeneous 3-D systems. Groundwater environmental tracers can provide important constraints for the calibration of groundwater flow models. Direct simulation of environmental tracer concentrations in models has the additional advantage of avoiding assumptions associated with using calculated groundwater age values. This study quantifies model uncertainty reduction resulting from the addition of environmental tracer concentration data. The analysis uses a synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and the calibration of a flow and transport model using the pilot point method. Results indicate a significant reduction in the uncertainty in permeability with the addition of environmental tracer data, relative to the use of hydraulic measurements alone. Anthropogenic tracers and their decay products, such as CFC11, 3H, and 3He, provide significant constraint oninput permeability values in the model. Tracer data for 39Ar provide even more complete information on the heterogeneity of permeability and variability in the flow system than the anthropogenic tracers, leading to greater parameter uncertainty reduction.« less
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Hodge, Ian M
2005-09-22
A distribution of activation energies is introduced into the nonlinear Adam-Gibbs ("Hodge-Scherer") phenomenology for structural relaxation. The resulting dependencies of the stretched exponential beta parameter on thermodynamic temperature and fictive temperature (nonlinear thermorheological complexity) are derived. No additional adjustable parameters are introduced, and contact is made with the predictions of the random first-order transition theory of aging of Lubchenko and Wolynes [J. Chem. Physics121, 2852 (2004)].
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A lattice model for influenza spreading.
Liccardo, Antonella; Fierro, Annalisa
2013-01-01
We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.
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Revised age estimates of the Euphrosyne family
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carruba, Valerio; Masiero, Joseph R.; Cibulková, Helena; Aljbaae, Safwan; Espinoza Huaman, Mariela
2015-08-01
The Euphrosyne family, a high inclination asteroid family in the outer main belt, is considered one of the most peculiar groups of asteroids. It is characterized by the steepest size frequency distribution (SFD) among families in the main belt, and it is the only family crossed near its center by the ν6 secular resonance. Previous studies have shown that the steep size frequency distribution may be the result of the dynamical evolution of the family.In this work we further explore the unique dynamical configuration of the Euphrosyne family by refining the previous age values, considering the effects of changes in shapes of the asteroids during YORP cycle (``stochastic YORP''), the long-term effect of close encounters of family members with (31) Euphrosyne itself, and the effect that changing key parameters of the Yarkovsky force (such as density and thermal conductivity) has on the estimate of the family age obtained using Monte Carlo methods. Numerical simulations accounting for the interaction with the local web of secular and mean-motion resonances allow us to refine previous estimates of the family age. The cratering event that formed the Euphrosyne family most likely occurred between 560 and 1160 Myr ago, and no earlier than 1400 Myr ago when we allow for larger uncertainties in the key parameters of the Yarkovsky force.
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A simple way to model nebulae with distributed ionizing stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jamet, L.; Morisset, C.
2008-04-01
Aims: This work is a follow-up of a recent article by Ercolano et al. that shows that, in some cases, the spatial dispersion of the ionizing stars in a given nebula may significantly affect its emission spectrum. The authors found that the dispersion of the ionizing stars is accompanied by a decrease in the ionization parameter, which at least partly explains the variations in the nebular spectrum. However, they did not research how other effects associated to the dispersion of the stars may contribute to those variations. Furthermore, they made use of a unique and simplified set of stellar populations. The scope of the present article is to assess whether the variation in the ionization parameter is the dominant effect in the dependence of the nebular spectrum on the distribution of its ionizing stars. We examined this possibility for various regimes of metallicity and age. We also investigated a way to model the distribution of the ionizing sources so as to bypass expensive calculations. Methods: We wrote a code able to generate random stellar populations and to compute the emission spectra of their associated nebulae through the widespread photoionization code cloudy. This code can process two kinds of spatial distributions of the stars: one where all the stars are concentrated at one point, and one where their separation is such that their Strömgren spheres do not overlap. Results: We found that, in most regimes of stellar population ages and gas metallicities, the dependence of the ionization parameter on the distribution of the stars is the dominant factor in the variation of the main nebular diagnostics with this distribution. We derived a method to mimic those effects with a single calculation that makes use of the common assumptions of a central source and a spherical nebula, in the case of constant density objects. This represents a computation time saving by a factor of at least several dozen in the case of H ii regions ionized by massive clusters.
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Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.
Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre
2003-05-01
We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.
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Burns, Melissa K; Andeway, Kathleen; Eppenstein, Paula; Ruroede, Kathleen
2014-06-01
This study was designed to establish balance parameters for the Nintendo(®) (Redmond, WA) "Wii Fit™" Balance Board system with three common games, in a sample of healthy adults, and to evaluate the balance measurement reproducibility with separation by age. This was a prospective, multivariate analysis of variance, cohort study design. Seventy-five participants who satisfied all inclusion criteria and completed an informed consent were enrolled. Participants were grouped into age ranges: 21-35 years (n=24), 36-50 years (n=24), and 51-65 years (n=27). Each participant completed the following games three consecutive times, in a randomized order, during one session: "Balance Bubble" (BB) for distance and duration, "Tight Rope" (TR) for distance and duration, and "Center of Balance" (COB) on the left and right sides. COB distributed weight was fairly symmetrical across all subjects and trials; therefore, no influence was assumed on or interaction with other "Wii Fit" measurements. Homogeneity of variance statistics indicated the assumption of distribution normality of the dependent variables (rates) were tenable. The multivariate analysis of variance included dependent variables BB and TR rates (distance divided by duration to complete) with age group and trials as the independent variables. The BB rate was statistically significant (F=4.725, P<0.005), but not the TR rate. The youngest group's BB rate was significantly larger than those of the other two groups. "Wii Fit" can discriminate among age groups across trials. The results show promise as a viable tool to measure balance and distance across time (speed) and center of balance distribution.
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Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr Ages for MIL 05035: Implications for Surface and Mantle Sources
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nyquist, L. E.; Shih, C-Y.; Reese, Y. D.
2007-01-01
The Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr ages and also the initial Nd and Sr isotopic compositions of MIL 05035 are the same as those of A-881757. Comparing the radiometric ages of these meteorites to lunar surface ages as modeled from crater size-frequency distributions as well as the TiO2 abundances and initial Sr-isotopic compositions of other basalts places their likely place of origin as within the Australe or Humboldtianum basins. If so, a fundamental west-east lunar asymmetry in compositional and isotopic parameters that likely is due to the PKT is implied.
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Nystagmus responses in a group of normal humans during earth-horizontal axis rotation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wall, Conrad, III; Furman, Joseph M. R.
1989-01-01
Horizontal eye movement responses to earth-horizontal yaw axis rotation were evaluated in 50 normal human subjects who were uniformly distributed in age (20-69 years) and each age group was then divided by gender. Subjects were rotated with eyes open in the dark, using clockwise and counter-clockwise 60 deg velocity trapezoids. The nystagmus slow component velocity is analyzed. It is shown that, despite large intersubject variability, parameters which describe earth-horizontal yaw axis responses are loosely interrelated, and some of them vary significantly with gender and age.
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Guo, Xinxing; Fu, Min; Ding, Xiaohu; Morgan, Ian G; Zeng, Yangfa; He, Mingguang
2017-12-01
To document the distribution of ocular biometry and to evaluate its associations with refraction in a group of Chinese preschoolers. Population-based cross-sectional study. A total of 1133 preschoolers 3 to 6 years of age from 8 representative kindergartens. Biometric measurements including axial length (AL), anterior chamber depth (ACD), and corneal radius of curvature (CR) were obtained from partial-coherence laser interferometry (IOL Master; Carl Zeiss Meditec, Oberkochen, Germany) before cycloplegia. Lens power (LP) and AL-to-CR ratio were calculated. Cycloplegic refraction (3 drops of 1% cyclopentolate) was measured using an autorefractor (KR8800; Topcon Corp., Tokyo, Japan), and spherical equivalent refraction (SER) was calculated. Biometric and refractive parameters were assessed as a function of age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed to explore the associations between refraction and ocular biometry. Ocular biometric distributions and their relationships to refraction. Among the 1127 children (99.5%) with successful cycloplegic refraction, mean SER was 1.37±0.63 diopters (D). Prevalence of myopia increased from 0% at 3 years of age to 3.7% (95% confidence interval, 1.0%-6.5%) at 6 years of age. Biometric parameters followed Gaussian distributions with means of 22.39±0.68 mm for AL, 7.79±0.25 mm for CR, and 24.61±1.42 D for calculated LP; and non-Gaussian distributions with means of 3.34±0.24 mm for ACD and 2.88±0.06 for AL-to-CR ratio. Axial length, ACD, and AL-to-CR ratio increased from 3 to 6 years of age, CR remained stable, whereas LP declined. Overall, SER declined slightly. For the SER variance, AL explained 18.6% and AL-to-CR ratio explained 39.8%, whereas AL, CR, and LP accounted for 80.0% after adjusting for age and gender. Young Chinese children are predominantly mildly hyperopic, with a low prevalence of myopia by the age of 6 years. An increase of 1 mm in AL was associated with only 0.45 D of myopic change. Decreases in LP reduce the myopic shifts that normally would be associated with increases in AL, and thus play a key role in refractive development in this age group. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Aging alters contractile properties and fiber morphology in pigeon skeletal muscle.
Pistilli, Emidio E; Alway, Stephen E; Hollander, John M; Wimsatt, Jeffrey H
2014-12-01
In this study, we tested the hypothesis that skeletal muscle from pigeons would display age-related alterations in isometric force and contractile parameters as well as a shift of the single muscle fiber cross-sectional area (CSA) distribution toward smaller fiber sizes. Maximal force output, twitch contraction durations and the force-frequency relationship were determined in tensor propatagialis pars biceps muscle from young 3-year-old pigeons, middle-aged 18-year-old pigeons, and aged 30-year-old pigeons. The fiber CSA distribution was determined by planimetry from muscle sections stained with hematoxylin and eosin. Maximal force output of twitch and tetanic contractions was greatest in muscles from young pigeons, while the time to peak force of twitch contractions was longest in muscles from aged pigeons. There were no changes in the force-frequency relationship between the age groups. Interestingly, the fiber CSA distribution in aged muscles revealed a greater number of larger sized muscle fibers, which was verified visually in histological images. Middle-aged and aged muscles also displayed a greater amount of slow myosin containing muscle fibers. These data demonstrate that muscles from middle-aged and aged pigeons are susceptible to alterations in contractile properties that are consistent with aging, including lower force production and longer contraction durations. These functional changes were supported by the appearance of slow myosin containing muscle fibers in muscles from middle-aged and aged pigeons. Therefore, the pigeon may represent an appropriate animal model for the study of aging-related alterations in skeletal muscle function and structure.
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MARK-AGE standard operating procedures (SOPs): A successful effort.
Moreno-Villanueva, María; Capri, Miriam; Breusing, Nicolle; Siepelmeyer, Anne; Sevini, Federica; Ghezzo, Alessandro; de Craen, Anton J M; Hervonen, Antti; Hurme, Mikko; Schön, Christiane; Grune, Tilman; Franceschi, Claudio; Bürkle, Alexander
2015-11-01
Within the MARK-AGE project, a population study (3337 subjects) was conducted to identify a set of biomarkers of ageing which, as a combination of parameters with appropriate weighting, would measure biological age better than any single marker. The MARK-AGE project involves 14 European countries and a total of 26 research centres. In such a study, standard operating procedures (SOPs) are an essential task, which are binding for all MARK-AGE Beneficiaries. The SOPs cover all aspects of subject's recruitment, collection, shipment and distribution of biological samples (blood and its components, buccal mucosa cells or BMC and urine) as well as the anthropometric measurements and questionnaires. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Vasquez, Brandon P; Binns, Malcolm A; Anderson, Nicole D
2016-03-01
Little is known about the relationship of executive functioning with age-related increases in response time (RT) distribution indices (intraindividual standard deviation [ISD], and ex-Gaussian parameters mu, sigma, tau). The goals of this study were to (a) replicate findings of age-related changes in response time distribution indices during an engaging touch-screen RT task and (b) investigate age-related changes in the relationship between executive functioning and RT distribution indices. Healthy adults (24 young [aged 18-30], 24 young-old [aged 65-74], and 24 old-old [aged 75-85]) completed a touch-screen attention task and a battery of neuropsychological tests. The relationships between RT performance and executive functions were examined with structural equation modeling (SEM). ISD, mu, and tau, but not sigma, increased with age. SEM revealed tau as the most salient RT index associated with neuropsychological measures of executive functioning. Further analysis demonstrated that correlations between tau and a weighted executive function composite were significant only in the old-old group. Our results replicate findings of greater RT inconsistency in older adults and reveal that executive functioning is related to tau in adults aged 75-85. These results support literature identifying tau as a marker of cognitive control, which deteriorates in old age. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Abe, Yuki; Shibata, Yoko; Igarashi, Akira; Inoue, Sumito; Sato, Kento; Sato, Masamichi; Nemoto, Takako; Kobayashi, Maki; Nishiwaki, Michiko; Kimura, Tomomi; Tokairin, Yoshikane; Kayama, Takamasa; Kubota, Isao
2016-05-01
The forced oscillation technique (FOT) can measure respiratory system resistance and reactance under tidal volume respiration. MostGraph is a device that incorporates the FOT and enables the immediate, three-dimensional visualization of resistance and reactance parameters. The aim of this study was to establish MostGraph reference values for middle-aged and elderly Japanese individuals. From 2004 to 2006, 3253 subjects living in Takahata, Yamagata underwent spirometry. Of these, 872 again underwent spirometry in 2011, and 784 (368 men, ages 46-89 years; 416 women, ages 47-90 years) underwent FOT examinations using MostGraph-01. In this study population, 19.0% of the men and 91.5% of the women were life-long never smokers. Abnormal spirometric findings were observed in 30.2% of the men and 14.6% of the women. Although the respiratory system resistance and reactance parameters obtained using MostGraph were not distributed normally, normal distribution was achieved via natural logarithm (R5, R20, Fres, and ALX), square root (R5-R20), or exponential (X5) transformation. Furthermore, the transformed values were converted back to the actual values after determining the values representing one and two standard deviations from the mean. Respiratory system resistance and reactance reference values were determined using MostGraph in middle-aged and elderly Japanese individuals who participated in annual health checkups. Copyright © 2016 The Japanese Respiratory Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A Unified tool to estimate Distances, Ages, and Masses (UniDAM) from spectrophotometric data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mints, Alexey; Hekker, Saskia
2017-08-01
Context. Galactic archaeology, the study of the formation and evolution of the Milky Way by reconstructing its past from its current constituents, requires precise and accurate knowledge of stellar parameters for as many stars as possible. To achieve this, a number of large spectroscopic surveys have been undertaken and are still ongoing. Aims: So far consortia carrying out the different spectroscopic surveys have used different tools to determine stellar parameters of stars from their derived effective temperatures (Teff), surface gravities (log g), and metallicities ([Fe/H]); the parameters can be combined with photometric, astrometric, interferometric, or asteroseismic information. Here we aim to homogenise the stellar characterisation by applying a unified tool to a large set of publicly available spectrophotometric data. Methods: We used spectroscopic data from a variety of large surveys combined with infrared photometry from 2MASS and AllWISE and compared these in a Bayesian manner with PARSEC isochrones to derive probability density functions (PDFs) for stellar masses, ages, and distances. We treated PDFs of pre-helium-core burning, helium-core burning, and post helium-core burning solutions as well as different peaks in multimodal PDFs (I.e. each unimodal sub-PDF) of the different evolutionary phases separately. Results: For over 2.5 million stars we report mass, age, and distance estimates for each evolutionary phase and unimodal sub-PDF. We report Gaussian, skewed, Gaussian, truncated Gaussian, modified truncated exponential distribution or truncated Student's t-distribution functions to represent each sub-PDF, allowing us to reconstruct detailed PDFs. Comparisons with stellar parameter estimates from the literature show good agreement within uncertainties. Conclusions: We present UniDAM, the unified tool applicable to spectrophotometric data of different surveys, to obtain a homogenised set of stellar parameters. The unified tool and the tables with results are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/604/A108
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Starn, J. J.; Belitz, K.; Carlson, C.
2017-12-01
Groundwater residence-time distributions (RTDs) are critical for assessing susceptibility of water resources to contamination. This novel approach for estimating regional RTDs was to first simulate groundwater flow using existing regional digital data sets in 13 intermediate size watersheds (each an average of 7,000 square kilometers) that are representative of a wide range of glacial systems. RTDs were simulated with particle tracking. We refer to these models as "general models" because they are based on regional, as opposed to site-specific, digital data. Parametric RTDs were created from particle RTDs by fitting 1- and 2-component Weibull, gamma, and inverse Gaussian distributions, thus reducing a large number of particle travel times to 3 to 7 parameters (shape, location, and scale for each component plus a mixing fraction) for each modeled area. The scale parameter of these distributions is related to the mean exponential age; the shape parameter controls departure from the ideal exponential distribution and is partly a function of interaction with bedrock and with drainage density. Given the flexible shape and mathematical similarity of these distributions, any of them are potentially a good fit to particle RTDs. The 1-component gamma distribution provided a good fit to basin-wide particle RTDs. RTDs at monitoring wells and streams often have more complicated shapes than basin-wide RTDs, caused in part by heterogeneity in the model, and generally require 2-component distributions. A machine learning model was trained on the RTD parameters using features derived from regionally available watershed characteristics such as recharge rate, material thickness, and stream density. RTDs appeared to vary systematically across the landscape in relation to watershed features. This relation was used to produce maps of useful metrics with respect to risk-based thresholds, such as the time to first exceedance, time to maximum concentration, time above the threshold (exposure time), and the time until last exceedance; thus, the parameters of groundwater residence time are measures of the intrinsic susceptibility of groundwater to contamination.
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[Modelling the impact of vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus].
Bonmarin, I; Santa-Olalla, P; Lévy-Bruhl, D
2008-10-01
The soon to come the availability of a combined MMR-varicella vaccine has re-stimulated the debate around universal infant vaccination against varicella. In France, the incidence of varicella is estimated at about 700,000 cases per year, with approximately 3500 hospitalisations and 15-25 deaths, the latter mainly occurring in those over 15years. Vaccination would certainly decrease the overall incidence of the disease but concerns about vaccination leading to a shift in the average age at infection followed by an increase in incidence of severe cases and congenital varicella, still remain. In order to provide support for decision-making, a dynamic mathematical model of varicella virus transmission was used to predict the effect of different vaccination strategies and coverages on the epidemiology of varicella and zoster. A deterministic realistic age-structured model was adapted to the French situation. Epidemiological parameters were estimated from literature or surveillance data. Various vaccine coverages and vaccination strategies were investigated. A sensitivity analysis of varicella incidence predictions was performed to test the impact of changes in the vaccine parameters and age-specific mixing patterns. The model confirms that the overall incidence and morbidity of varicella would likely be reduced by mass vaccination of 12-month-old children. Whatever the coverage and the vaccine strategy, the vaccination will cause a shift in age distribution with, for vaccination coverage up to at least 80% in the base-case analysis, an increased morbidity among adults and pregnant women. However, the total number of deaths and hospitalisations from varicella is predicted to remain below that expected without vaccination. The model is very sensitive to the matrix of contacts used and to the parameters describing vaccine effectiveness. Zoster incidence will increase over a number of decades followed by a decline to below prevaccination levels. Mass varicella vaccination, in France, will result in an overall reduction of varicella incidence but will cause a shift in age distribution with an increase in adult cases. Due to the uncertainties in key parameters values, the exact magnitude of this shift is difficult to assess.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao
2017-05-01
Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.
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Cooperation and age structure in spatial games
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Zhen; Wang, Zhen; Zhu, Xiaodan; Arenzon, Jeferson J.
2012-01-01
We study the evolution of cooperation in evolutionary spatial games when the payoff correlates with the increasing age of players (the level of correlation is set through a single parameter, α). The demographic heterogeneous age distribution, directly affecting the outcome of the game, is thus shown to be responsible for enhancing the cooperative behavior in the population. In particular, moderate values of α allow cooperators not only to survive but to outcompete defectors, even when the temptation to defect is large and the ageless, standard α=0 model does not sustain cooperation. The interplay between age structure and noise is also considered, and we obtain the conditions for optimal levels of cooperation.
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Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies
Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G.
2017-01-01
Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire. PMID:28696282
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Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies.
Diekmann, Yoan; Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Page, Abigail E; Chaudhary, Nikhil; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G
2017-08-01
Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire.
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Jing, Jin; Ma, Jun; Chen, Yajun; Li, Xiuhong; Yang, Wenhan; Guo, Li; Jin, Yu
2016-01-01
Background Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) are used in screening and predicting obesity in adults. However, the best identifier of metabolic complications in children with obesity remains unclear. This study evaluated lipid profile distribution and investigated the best anthropometric parameter in association with lipid disorders in children with obesity. Methods A total of 2243 school children aged 7–17 years were enrolled in Guangzhou, China, in 2014. The anthropometric indices and lipid profiles were measured. Dyslipidemia was defined according to the US Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents. The association between anthropometry (BMI, WC, and WHR) and lipid profile values was examined using chi-square analysis and discriminant function analysis. Information about demography, physical activity, and dietary intake was provided by the participant children and their parents. Results Children aged 10–14 and 15–17 years old generally had higher triglyceride values but lower median concentration of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol compared with children aged 7–9 years old (all P < 0.001). These lipid parameters fluctuated in children aged 10–14 years old. The combination of age groups, BMI, WC and WHR achieved 65.1% accuracy in determining dyslipidemic disorders. BMI correctly identified 77% of the total dyslipidemic disorders in obese children, which was higher than that by WHR (70.8%) (P< 0.05). Conclusion The distribution of lipid profiles in Chinese children differed between younger and older age groups, and the tendency of these lipid levels remarkably fluctuated during 10 to 14 years old. BMI had better practical utility in identifying dyslipidemia among school-aged children with obesity compared with other anthropometric measures. PMID:26963377
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Zhu, Yanna; Shao, Zixian; Jing, Jin; Ma, Jun; Chen, Yajun; Li, Xiuhong; Yang, Wenhan; Guo, Li; Jin, Yu
2016-01-01
Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) are used in screening and predicting obesity in adults. However, the best identifier of metabolic complications in children with obesity remains unclear. This study evaluated lipid profile distribution and investigated the best anthropometric parameter in association with lipid disorders in children with obesity. A total of 2243 school children aged 7-17 years were enrolled in Guangzhou, China, in 2014. The anthropometric indices and lipid profiles were measured. Dyslipidemia was defined according to the US Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents. The association between anthropometry (BMI, WC, and WHR) and lipid profile values was examined using chi-square analysis and discriminant function analysis. Information about demography, physical activity, and dietary intake was provided by the participant children and their parents. Children aged 10-14 and 15-17 years old generally had higher triglyceride values but lower median concentration of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol compared with children aged 7-9 years old (all P < 0.001). These lipid parameters fluctuated in children aged 10-14 years old. The combination of age groups, BMI, WC and WHR achieved 65.1% accuracy in determining dyslipidemic disorders. BMI correctly identified 77% of the total dyslipidemic disorders in obese children, which was higher than that by WHR (70.8%) (P< 0.05). The distribution of lipid profiles in Chinese children differed between younger and older age groups, and the tendency of these lipid levels remarkably fluctuated during 10 to 14 years old. BMI had better practical utility in identifying dyslipidemia among school-aged children with obesity compared with other anthropometric measures.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yasui, Takeshi; Yonetsu, Makoto; Tanaka, Ryosuke; Tanaka, Yuji; Fukushima, Shu-ichiro; Yamashita, Toyonobu; Ogura, Yuki; Hirao, Tetsuji; Murota, Hiroyuki; Araki, Tsutomu
2013-03-01
In vivo visualization of human skin aging is demonstrated using a Cr:Forsterite (Cr:F) laser-based, collagen-sensitive second harmonic generation (SHG) microscope. The deep penetration into human skin, as well as the specific sensitivity to collagen molecules, achieved by this microscope enables us to clearly visualize age-related structural changes of collagen fiber in the reticular dermis. Here we investigated intrinsic aging and/or photoaging in the male facial skin. Young subjects show dense distributions of thin collagen fibers, whereas elderly subjects show coarse distributions of thick collagen fibers. Furthermore, a comparison of SHG images between young and elderly subjects with and without a recent life history of excessive sun exposure show that a combination of photoaging with intrinsic aging significantly accelerates skin aging. We also perform image analysis based on two-dimensional Fourier transformation of the SHG images and extracted an aging parameter for human skin. The in vivo collagen-sensitive SHG microscope will be a powerful tool in fields such as cosmeceutical sciences and anti-aging dermatology.
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Williams, D A; Head, S I; Lynch, G S; Stephenson, D G
1993-01-01
1. Single muscle fibres were enzymatically isolated from the soleus and extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscles of genetically dystrophic mdx and normal (C57BL/10) mice aged 3-6 or 17-23 weeks. 2. Fibres of both muscles were chemically skinned with the non-ionic detergent Triton X-100 (2% v/v). Ca(2+)- and Sr(2+)-activated contractile responses were recorded and comparisons were made between several contractile parameters of various fibre types of normal and dystrophic mice of similar age. 3. There were no significant differences in the following contractile parameters of skinned fibres of normal and mdx mice of the same age: sensitivity to activating Ca2+ (pCa50) or Sr2+ (pSr50) and differential sensitivity to the activating ions (pCa50-pSr50). However the maximum isometric tension (Po) and the frequency of myofibrillar force oscillations in EDL fast-twitch fibres of young mdx mice were significantly lower than those of soleus fast-twitch fibres of the same animals, or fast-twitch fibres (EDL or soleus) of normal mice. 4. Age-related differences were apparent in some contractile parameters of both normal and mdx mice. In particular the steepness of force-pCa and force-pSr curves increased with age in normal mice, yet decreased with age in fibres of mdx mice. 5. A fluorescent probe, ethidium bromide, which interchelates with DNA, was used with laser-scanning confocal microscopy to determine the distribution of myonuclei in fibres. Fibres isolated from either muscle type of normal animals displayed a characteristic peripheral spiral of myonuclei. Fibres from muscles of mdx mice displayed three major patterns of nuclear distribution; the normal peripheral spiral, long central strands of nuclei, and a mixture of these two patterns. 6. The contractile characteristics of mdx fibres were not markedly influenced by the nuclear distribution pattern in that there were no discernible differences in the major contractile parameters (the Hill coefficients nCa and nSr, which are associated with the steepness of the Ca2+ and Sr2+ activation curves, pCa50, pSr50, pCa50-pSr50) of skinned fibres possessing peripheral or central nuclei. However, except for nSr, these values were all lower in individual fibres which displayed similar proportions of central and peripheral nuclei. The presence of mixed nucleation and absence of fibres with embryonic contractile characteristics in mdx mice suggest that the dystrophin-negative fibres can repair locally occurring muscle damage. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 1(Contd.) Fig. 4 Fig. 5 PMID:8487206
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Rojas, Kristians Diaz; Montero, Maria L.; Yao, Jorge; Messing, Edward; Fazili, Anees; Joseph, Jean; Ou, Yangming; Rubens, Deborah J.; Parker, Kevin J.; Davatzikos, Christos; Castaneda, Benjamin
2015-01-01
Abstract. A methodology to study the relationship between clinical variables [e.g., prostate specific antigen (PSA) or Gleason score] and cancer spatial distribution is described. Three-dimensional (3-D) models of 216 glands are reconstructed from digital images of whole mount histopathological slices. The models are deformed into one prostate model selected as an atlas using a combination of rigid, affine, and B-spline deformable registration techniques. Spatial cancer distribution is assessed by counting the number of tumor occurrences among all glands in a given position of the 3-D registered atlas. Finally, a difference between proportions is used to compare different spatial distributions. As a proof of concept, we compare spatial distributions from patients with PSA greater and less than 5 ng/ml and from patients older and younger than 60 years. Results suggest that prostate cancer has a significant difference in the right zone of the prostate between populations with PSA greater and less than 5 ng/ml. Age does not have any impact in the spatial distribution of the disease. The proposed methodology can help to comprehend prostate cancer by understanding its spatial distribution and how it changes according to clinical parameters. Finally, this methodology can be easily adapted to other organs and pathologies. PMID:26236756
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The evolution history of the extended solar neighbourhood
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Just, Andreas; Sysoliatina, Kseniia; Koutsouridou, Ioanna
2018-04-01
Our detailed analytic local disc model (JJ-model) quantifies the interrelation between kinematic properties (e.g. velocity dispersions and asymmetric drift), spatial parameters (scale-lengths and vertical density profiles), and properties of stellar sub-populations (age and abundance distributions). We discuss a radial extension of the disc evolution model representing an inside-out growth of the thin disc with constant thickness. Based on metallicity distributions of APOGEE red clump stars we derive the AMR as function of galactrocentric distance and show that mono-abundance as well as mono-age populations are flaring. The predictions of the JJ-model are consistent with the TGAS-RAVE data, which provide a significant improvement of the kinematic data and unbiased distances for more than 250,000 stars.
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Shao, Hong Da; Li, Guan Wu; Liu, Yong; Qiu, Yu You; Yao, Jian Hua; Tang, Guang Yu
2015-09-01
The fat and bone connection is complicated, and the effect of adipose tissue on hip bone strength remains unclear. The aim of this study was to clarify the relative contribution of body fat accumulation and fat distribution to the determination of proximal femur strength in healthy postmenopausal Chinese women. This cross-sectional study enrolled 528 healthy postmenopausal women without medication history or known diseases. Total lean mass (LM), appendicular LM (ALM), percentage of lean mass (PLM), total fat mass (FM), appendicular FM (AFM), percentage of body fat (PBF), android and gynoid fat amount, android-to-gynoid fat ratio (AOI), bone mineral density (BMD), and proximal femur geometry were measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Hip structure analysis was used to compute some variables as geometric strength-related parameters by analyzing the images of the hip generated from DXA scans. Correlation analyses among anthropometrics, variables of body composition and bone mass, and geometric indices of hip bone strength were performed with stepwise linear regression analyses as well as Pearson's correlation analysis. In univariate analysis, there were significantly inverse correlations between age, years since menopause (YSM), hip BMD, and hip geometric parameters. Bone data were positively related to height, body weight, LM, ALM, FM, AFM, and PBF but negatively related to AOI and amount of android fat (all P < 0.05). AFM and AOI were significantly related to most anthropometric parameters. AFM was positively associated with height, body weight, and BMI. AFM was negatively associated with age and YSM. AOI was negatively associated with height, body weight, and BMI. AOI positively associated with age and YSM. LM, ALM, and FM had a positive relationship with anthropometric parameters (P < 0.05 for all). PLM had a negative relationship with those parameters. The correlation between LM, ALM, FM, PLM, ALM, age, and YSM was not significant. In multivariate linear regression analysis, the hip bone strength was observed to have a consistent and unchanged positive association with AFM and a negative association with AOI, whereas its association with other variables of body composition was not significant after adjusting for age, years since menopause, height, body weight, and BMI. AFM may be a positively protective effect for hip bone strength while AOI, rather than android fat, shows a strong negative association with hip bone strength after making an adjustment for confounders (age, YSM, height, body weight, and BMI) in healthy postmenopausal Chinese women. Rational weight control and AOI reduction during menopause may have vital clinical significance in decreasing postmenopausal osteoporosis.
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Assessment of corneal properties based on statistical modeling of OCT speckle.
Jesus, Danilo A; Iskander, D Robert
2017-01-01
A new approach to assess the properties of the corneal micro-structure in vivo based on the statistical modeling of speckle obtained from Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is presented. A number of statistical models were proposed to fit the corneal speckle data obtained from OCT raw image. Short-term changes in corneal properties were studied by inducing corneal swelling whereas age-related changes were observed analyzing data of sixty-five subjects aged between twenty-four and seventy-three years. Generalized Gamma distribution has shown to be the best model, in terms of the Akaike's Information Criterion, to fit the OCT corneal speckle. Its parameters have shown statistically significant differences (Kruskal-Wallis, p < 0.001) for short and age-related corneal changes. In addition, it was observed that age-related changes influence the corneal biomechanical behaviour when corneal swelling is induced. This study shows that Generalized Gamma distribution can be utilized to modeling corneal speckle in OCT in vivo providing complementary quantified information where micro-structure of corneal tissue is of essence.
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Modelling Parameters Characterizing Selected Water Supply Systems in Lower Silesia Province
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nowogoński, Ireneusz; Ogiołda, Ewa
2017-12-01
The work presents issues of modelling water supply systems in the context of basic parameters characterizing their operation. In addition to typical parameters, such as water pressure and flow rate, assessing the age of the water is important, as a parameter of assessing the quality of the distributed medium. The analysis was based on two facilities, including one with a diverse spectrum of consumers, including residential housing and industry. The carried out simulations indicate the possibility of the occurrence of water quality degradation as a result of excessively long periods of storage in the water supply network. Also important is the influence of the irregularity of water use, especially in the case of supplying various kinds of consumers (in the analysed case - mining companies).
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Engen, Steinar; Lande, Russell; Saether, Bernt-Erik
2011-10-01
We analyze weak fluctuating selection on a quantitative character in an age-structured population not subject to density regulation. We assume that early in the first year of life before selection, during a critical state of development, environments exert a plastic effect on the phenotype, which remains constant throughout the life of an individual. Age-specific selection on the character affects survival and fecundity, which have intermediate optima subject to temporal environmental fluctuations with directional selection in some age classes as special cases. Weighting individuals by their reproductive value, as suggested by Fisher, we show that the expected response per year in the weighted mean character has the same form as for models with no age structure. Environmental stochasticity generates stochastic fluctuations in the weighted mean character following a first-order autoregressive model with a temporally autocorrelated noise term and stationary variance depending on the amount of phenotypic plasticity. The parameters of the process are simple weighted averages of parameters used to describe age-specific survival and fecundity. The "age-specific selective weights" are related to the stable distribution of reproductive values among age classes. This allows partitioning of the change in the weighted mean character into age-specific components. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Stricker, P. A.; Zuppa, A. F.; Fiadjoe, J. E.; Maxwell, L. G.; Sussman, E. M.; Pruitt, E. Y.; Goebel, T. K.; Gastonguay, M. R.; Taylor, J. A.; Bartlett, S. P.; Schreiner, M. S.
2013-01-01
Background Understanding the clinical pharmacology of the antifibrinolytic epsilon-aminocaproic acid (EACA) is necessary for rational drug administration in children. The aim of this study is to determine the pharmacokinetics (PKs) of EACA in infants aged 6–24 months undergoing craniofacial reconstruction surgery. Methods Cohorts of six infants were enrolled sequentially to one of the three escalating loading dose–continuous i.v. infusion (CIVI) regimens: 25 mg kg−1, 10 mg kg−1 h−1; 50 mg kg−1, 20 mg kg−1 h−1; 100 mg kg−1, 40 mg kg−1 h−1. Plasma EACA concentrations were determined using a validated high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay. A population non-linear mixed effects modelling approach was used to characterize EACA PKs. Results Population PK parameters of EACA were estimated using a two-compartment disposition model with weight expressed as an allometric covariate and an age effect. The typical patient in this study had an age of 38.71 weeks and a weight of 8.82 kg. PK parameters for this typical patient were: pre-/postoperative plasma drug clearance of 32 ml min−1 (3.6 ml kg−1 min−1), inter-compartmental clearance of 42.4 ml min−1 (4.8 ml min−1 kg−1), central volume of distribution of 1.27 litre (0.14 litre kg−1), and peripheral volume of distribution of 2.53 litre (0.29 litre kg−1). Intra-operative clearance and central volume of distribution were 89% and 80% of the pre-/postoperative value, respectively. Conclusions EACA clearance increased with weight and age. The dependence of clearance on body weight supports weight-based dosing. Based on this study, a loading dose of 100 mg kg−1 followed by a CIVI of 40 mg kg−1 h−1 is appropriate to maintain target plasma EACA concentrations in children aged 6–24 months undergoing these procedures. PMID:23353035
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Stricker, P A; Zuppa, A F; Fiadjoe, J E; Maxwell, L G; Sussman, E M; Pruitt, E Y; Goebel, T K; Gastonguay, M R; Taylor, J A; Bartlett, S P; Schreiner, M S
2013-05-01
Understanding the clinical pharmacology of the antifibrinolytic epsilon-aminocaproic acid (EACA) is necessary for rational drug administration in children. The aim of this study is to determine the pharmacokinetics (PKs) of EACA in infants aged 6-24 months undergoing craniofacial reconstruction surgery. Cohorts of six infants were enrolled sequentially to one of the three escalating loading dose-continuous i.v. infusion (CIVI) regimens: 25 mg kg(-1), 10 mg kg(-1) h(-1); 50 mg kg(-1), 20 mg kg(-1) h(-1); 100 mg kg(-1), 40 mg kg(-1) h(-1). Plasma EACA concentrations were determined using a validated high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay. A population non-linear mixed effects modelling approach was used to characterize EACA PKs. Population PK parameters of EACA were estimated using a two-compartment disposition model with weight expressed as an allometric covariate and an age effect. The typical patient in this study had an age of 38.71 weeks and a weight of 8.82 kg. PK parameters for this typical patient were: pre-/postoperative plasma drug clearance of 32 ml min(-1) (3.6 ml kg(-1) min(-1)), inter-compartmental clearance of 42.4 ml min(-1) (4.8 ml min(-1) kg(-1)), central volume of distribution of 1.27 litre (0.14 litre kg(-1)), and peripheral volume of distribution of 2.53 litre (0.29 litre kg(-1)). Intra-operative clearance and central volume of distribution were 89% and 80% of the pre-/postoperative value, respectively. EACA clearance increased with weight and age. The dependence of clearance on body weight supports weight-based dosing. Based on this study, a loading dose of 100 mg kg(-1) followed by a CIVI of 40 mg kg(-1) h(-1) is appropriate to maintain target plasma EACA concentrations in children aged 6-24 months undergoing these procedures.
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Bouillon-Pichault, Marion; Jullien, Vincent; Bazzoli, Caroline; Pons, Gérard; Tod, Michel
2011-02-01
The aim of this work was to determine whether optimizing the study design in terms of ages and sampling times for a drug eliminated solely via cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4) would allow us to accurately estimate the pharmacokinetic parameters throughout the entire childhood timespan, while taking into account age- and weight-related changes. A linear monocompartmental model with first-order absorption was used successively with three different residual error models and previously published pharmacokinetic parameters ("true values"). The optimal ages were established by D-optimization using the CYP3A4 maturation function to create "optimized demographic databases." The post-dose times for each previously selected age were determined by D-optimization using the pharmacokinetic model to create "optimized sparse sampling databases." We simulated concentrations by applying the population pharmacokinetic model to the optimized sparse sampling databases to create optimized concentration databases. The latter were modeled to estimate population pharmacokinetic parameters. We then compared true and estimated parameter values. The established optimal design comprised four age ranges: 0.008 years old (i.e., around 3 days), 0.192 years old (i.e., around 2 months), 1.325 years old, and adults, with the same number of subjects per group and three or four samples per subject, in accordance with the error model. The population pharmacokinetic parameters that we estimated with this design were precise and unbiased (root mean square error [RMSE] and mean prediction error [MPE] less than 11% for clearance and distribution volume and less than 18% for k(a)), whereas the maturation parameters were unbiased but less precise (MPE < 6% and RMSE < 37%). Based on our results, taking growth and maturation into account a priori in a pediatric pharmacokinetic study is theoretically feasible. However, it requires that very early ages be included in studies, which may present an obstacle to the use of this approach. First-pass effects, alternative elimination routes, and combined elimination pathways should also be investigated.
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DETERMINING AGES OF APOGEE GIANTS WITH KNOWN DISTANCES
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Feuillet, Diane K.; Holtzman, Jon; Bovy, Jo
2016-01-20
We present a sample of 705 local giant stars observed using the New Mexico State University 1 m telescope with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-III/Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) spectrograph, for which we estimate stellar ages and the local star formation history (SFH). The high-resolution (R ∼ 22,500), near infrared (1.51–1.7 μm) APOGEE spectra provide measurements of stellar atmospheric parameters (temperature, surface gravity, [M/H], and [α/M]). Due to the smaller uncertainties in surface gravity possible with high-resolution spectra and accurate Hipparcos distance measurements, we are able to calculate the stellar masses to within 30%. For giants, the relativelymore » rapid evolution up the red giant branch allows the age to be constrained by the mass. We examine methods of estimating age using both the mass–age relation directly and a Bayesian isochrone matching of measured parameters, assuming a constant SFH. To improve the SFH prior, we use a hierarchical modeling approach to constrain the parameters of the model SFH using the age probability distribution functions of the data. The results of an α-dependent Gaussian SFH model show a clear age–[α/M] relation at all ages. Using this SFH model as the prior for an empirical Bayesian analysis, we determine ages for individual stars. The resulting age–metallicity relation is flat, with a slight decrease in [M/H] at the oldest ages and a ∼0.5 dex spread in metallicity across most ages. For stars with ages ≲1 Gyr we find a smaller spread, consistent with radial migration having a smaller effect on these young stars than on the older stars.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew; Sierra, Carlos
2017-04-01
The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. However, it is uncertain how some vegetation dynamics such as the allocation of carbon to different ecosystem compartments should be represented in models. The assumptions behind model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. Here, we asses model performance by calculating the age of the carbon in the system and in each compartment, and the overall transit time of C in the system. We used these diagnostics to assess the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the rates of C cycling in vegetation. First, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find the best set of parameters for the different model structures. Second, we calculated C stocks, respiration fluxes, radiocarbon values, ages, and transit times. We found a good fit of the three model structures to the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed and reduce model equifinality. Differences in model structures had a small impact on predicting ecosystem C compartments, but overall they resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of a storage compartment had an important impact on predicting system ages and transit times. In the case of the models with 1 or 2 storage compartments, the age of carbon in the system and in each of the compartments was distributed more towards younger ages than in the model that had no storage; the mean system age of these two models with storage was 80 years younger than in the model without storage. As expected from these age distributions, the mean transit time for the two models with storage compartments was 50 years faster than for the model without storage. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure and could largely help to reduce uncertainties in model predictions. Furthermore, by considering age and transit times of C in vegetation compartments as distributions, not only their mean values, we obtain additional insights on the temporal dynamics of carbon use, storage, and allocation to plant parts, which not only depends on the rate at which this C is transferred in and out of the compartments, but also on the stochastic nature of the process itself.
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Derivation of the spin-glass order parameter from stochastic thermodynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crisanti, A.; Picco, M.; Ritort, F.
2018-05-01
A fluctuation relation is derived to extract the order parameter function q (x ) in weakly ergodic systems. The relation is based on measuring and classifying entropy production fluctuations according to the value of the overlap q between configurations. For a fixed value of q , entropy production fluctuations are Gaussian distributed allowing us to derive the quasi-FDT so characteristic of aging systems. The theory is validated by extracting the q (x ) in various types of glassy models. It might be generally applicable to other nonequilibrium systems and experimental small systems.
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Asteroid rotation rates - Distributions and statistics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Binzel, Richard P.; Farinella, Paolo; Zappala, Vincenzo; Cellino, Alberto
1989-01-01
An analysis of asteroid rotation rates and light-curve amplitudes disclosed many significant correlations between these rotation parameters and asteroid diameter, with distinct changes occurring near 125 km, a diameter above which self-gravity may become important. It is suggested that this size range may represent a division between surviving primordial asteroids and collisional fragments. A comparison of rotational parameters between family and nonfamily asteroids showed that the Koronis and Eos families exhibit noticeable differences, considered to be due to different impact conditions and/or to a relatively younger age for the Koronis family.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jensen, Robert K.; Fletcher, P.; Abraham, C.
1991-04-01
The segment mass mass proportions and moments of inertia of a sample of twelve females and seven males with mean ages of 67. 4 and 69. 5 years were estimated using textbook proportions based on cadaver studies. These were then compared with the parameters calculated using a mathematical model the zone method. The methodology of the model was fully evaluated for accuracy and precision and judged to be adequate. The results of the comparisons show that for some segments female parameters are quite different from male parameters and inadequately predicted by the cadaver proportions. The largest discrepancies were for the thigh and the trunk. The cadaver predictions were generally less than satisfactory although the common variance for some segments was moderately high. The use ofnon-linear regression and segment anthropometry was illustrated for the thigh moments of inertia and appears to be appropriate. However the predictions from cadaver data need to be examined fully. These results are dependent on the changes in mass and density distribution which occur with aging and the changes which occur with cadaver samples prior to and following death.
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Simple reaction time in 8-9-year old children environmentally exposed to PCBs.
Šovčíková, Eva; Wimmerová, Soňa; Strémy, Maximilián; Kotianová, Janette; Loffredo, Christopher A; Murínová, Ľubica Palkovičová; Chovancová, Jana; Čonka, Kamil; Lancz, Kinga; Trnovec, Tomáš
2015-12-01
Simple reaction time (SRT) has been studied in children exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), with variable results. In the current work we examined SRT in 146 boys and 161 girls, aged 8.53 ± 0.65 years (mean ± SD), exposed to PCBs in the environment of eastern Slovakia. We divided the children into tertiles with regard to increasing PCB serum concentration. The mean ± SEM serum concentration of the sum of 15 PCB congeners was 191.15 ± 5.39, 419.23 ± 8.47, and 1315.12 ± 92.57 ng/g lipids in children of the first, second, and third tertiles, respectively. We created probability distribution plots for each child from their multiple trials of the SRT testing. We fitted response time distributions from all valid trials with the ex-Gaussian function, a convolution of a normal and an additional exponential function, providing estimates of three independent parameters μ, σ, and τ. μ is the mean of the normal component, σ is the standard deviation of the normal component, and τ is the mean of the exponential component. Group response time distributions were calculated using the Vincent averaging technique. A Q-Q plot comparing probability distribution of the first vs. third tertile indicated that deviation of the quantiles of the latter tertile from those of the former begins at the 40th percentile and does not show a positive acceleration. This was confirmed in comparison of the ex-Gaussian parameters of these two tertiles adjusted for sex, age, Raven IQ of the child, mother's and father's education, behavior at home and school, and BMI: the results showed that the parameters μ and τ significantly (p ≤ 0.05) increased with PCB exposure. Similar increases of the ex-Gaussian parameter τ in children suffering from ADHD have been previously reported and interpreted as intermittent attentional lapses, but were not seen in our cohort. Our study has confirmed that environmental exposure of children to PCBs is associated with prolongation of simple reaction time reflecting impairment of cognitive functions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Bimodal star formation - Constraints from the solar neighborhood
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wyse, Rosemary F. G.; Silk, J.
1987-01-01
The chemical evolution resulting from a simple model of bimodal star formulation is investigated, using constraints from the solar neighborhood to set the parameters of the initial mass function and star formation rate. The two modes are an exclusively massive star mode, which forms stars at an exponentially declining rate, and a mode which contains stars of all masses and has a constant star formation rate. Satisfactory agreement with the age-metallicity relation for the thin disk and with the metallicity structure of the thin-disk and spheroid stars is possible only for a small range of parameter values. The preferred model offers a resolution to several of the long-standing problems of galactic chemical evolution, including explanations of the age-metallicity relation, the gas consumption time scale, and the stellar cumulative metallicity distributions.
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Pediatric normative data for the KayPENTAX phonatory aerodynamic system model 6600.
Weinrich, Barbara; Brehm, Susan Baker; Knudsen, Courtney; McBride, Stephanie; Hughes, Michael
2013-01-01
The objectives of this study were to (1) establish a preliminary pediatric normative database for the KayPENTAX Phonatory Aerodynamic System (PAS) Model 6600 (KayPENTAX Corp, Montvale, NJ) and (2) identify whether the data obtained were age- and/or gender-dependent. Prospective data collection across groups. A sample of 60 children (30 females and 30 males) with normal voices was divided into three age groups (6.0-9.11, 10.0-13.11, 14.0-17.11 years) with equal distribution of males and females within each group. Five PAS protocols (vital capacity, maximum sustained phonation, comfortable sustained phonation, variation in sound pressure level, voicing efficiency) were used to collect 45 phonatory aerodynamic measures. Measurements for the 45 PAS parameters examined revealed 13 parameters to have a difference that was statistically significant by age and/or gender. There was a significant age×gender interaction for mean pitch in the four protocols that reported this measure. Males in the oldest group had significantly lower mean pitch values than the middle and young groups. Statistically significant main effect differences were noted for seven parameters across three age groups (expiratory volume, expiratory airflow duration, phonation time, pitch range (in 2 protocols), aerodynamic resistance, acoustic ohms). Significant main effect differences for genders (males > females) were found for expiratory volume and peak expiratory airflow. The age- and gender-related differences found for some parameters within each of the five protocols are important for the interpretation of data obtained from PAS. These results could be explained by developmental changes that occur in the male and female respiratory and laryngeal systems. Copyright © 2013 The Voice Foundation. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
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A new study of shower age distribution in near vertical showers by EAS air shower array
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chaudhuri, N.; Basak, D. K.; Goswami, G. C.; Ghosh, B.
1984-01-01
The air shower array has been developed since it started operation in 1931. The array covering an area of 900 sq m now incorporates 21 particle density sampling detectors around two muon magnetic spectrographs. The air showers are detected in the size range 10 to the 4th power to 10 to the 6th power particles. A total of 11000 showers has so far been detected. Average values of shower age have been obtained in various shower size ranges to study the dependence of shower age on shower size. The core distance dependence of shower age parameter has also been analyzed for presentation.
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Influence of dental occlusion on postural control and plantar pressure distribution.
Scharnweber, Benjamin; Adjami, Frederic; Schuster, Gabriele; Kopp, Stefan; Natrup, Jörg; Erbe, Christina; Ohlendorf, Daniela
2017-11-01
The number of studies investigating correlations between the temporomandibular system and body posture, postural control or plantar pressure distribution is continuously increasing. If a connection can be found, it is often of minor influence or for only a single parameter. However, small subject groups are critical. This study was conducted to define correlations between dental parameters, postural control and plantar pressure distribution in healthy males. In this study, 87 male subjects with an average age of 25.23 ± 3.5 years (ranging from 18 to 35 years) were examined. Dental casts of the subjects were analyzed. Postural control and plantar pressure distribution were recorded by a force platform. Possible orthodontic and orthopedic factors of influence were determined by either an anamnesis or a questionnaire. All tests performed were randomized and repeated three times each for intercuspal position (ICP) and blocked occlusion (BO). For a statistical analysis of the results, non-parametric tests (Wilcoxon-Matched-Pairs-Test, Kruskall-Wallis-Test) were used. A revision of the results via Bonferroni-Holm correction was considered. ICP increases body sway in the frontal (p ≤ 0.01) and sagittal planes (p ≤ 0.03) compared to BO, whereas all other 29 correlations were independent of the occlusion position. For both of the ICP or BO cases, Angle-class, midline-displacement, crossbite, or orthodontic therapy were found to have no influence on postural control or plantar pressure distribution (p > 0.05). However, the contact time of the left foot decreased (p ≤ 0.001) while detecting the plantar pressure distribution in each position. Persistent dental parameters have no effect on postural sway. In addition, postural control and plantar pressure distribution have been found to be independent postural criteria.
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Staub, Kaspar; Henneberg, Maciej; Galassi, Francesco M; Eppenberger, Patrick; Haeusler, Martin; Morozova, Irina; Rühli, Frank J; Bender, Nicole
2018-01-01
Abstract Background and objectives The body mass index (BMI) is an established anthropometric index for the development of obesity-related conditions. However, little is known about the distribution of BMI within a population, especially about this distribution’s temporal change. Here, we analysed changes in the distribution of height, weight and BMI over the past 140 years based on data of Swiss conscripts and tested for correlations between anthropometric data and standard blood parameters. Methods Height and weight were measured in 59 504 young Swiss males aged 18–19 years during conscription in 1875–79, 1932–36, 1994 and 2010–12. For 65% of conscripts in 2010–12, results of standard blood analysis were available. We calculated descriptive statistics of the distribution of height, weight and BMI over the four time periods and tested for associations between BMI and metabolic parameters. Results Average and median body height, body weight and BMI increased over time. Height did no longer increase between 1994 and 2010–12, while weight and BMI still increased over these two decades. Variability ranges of weight and BMI increased over time, while variation of body height remained constant. Elevated levels of metabolic and inflammatory blood parameters were found at both ends of BMI distribution. Conclusions and implications Both overweight and underweight subgroups showed similar changes in inflammation parameters, pointing toward related metabolic deficiencies in both conditions. In addition to environmental influences, our results indicate a potential role of relaxed natural selection on genes affecting metabolism and body composition.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Falcini, Federico; Palatella, Luigi; Cuttitta, Angela; Bignami, Francesco; Patti, Bernardo; Santoleri, Rosalia; Fiorentino, Fabio
2014-05-01
The European Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Linnaeus, 1758) is one of the most important resources of the Mediterranean Sea. Despite its abundance and relevance, the anchovy population off the Mediterranean coasts exhibits a patchy distribution. Moreover, its biology and the influence of environment on its variability is poorly known. We here use data from ichthyoplankton-surveys carried out during the peak spawning season in order to analyze abundance and age of anchovy larvae in the Strait of Sicily, with respect to sea surface dynamic and hydrographic parameter patterns. The Strait of Sicily dynamics is characterized by upwelling regions, fronts, vortices, and filaments, with a consequent complexity in the spatial distribution of oceanographic parameters and anchovy larvae. To investigate the role of mesoscale features and oceanographic environment on the latter, anchovy larvae observations were paired to remote sensing data (such as sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, primary production, surface wind speed as well as light attenuation, absorption, and particle backscattering coefficients) and Lagrangian and Eulerian numerical simulations results for ocean currents and larval transport. The subsequent analysis shows and quantifies how the Atlantic Ionian Stream (AIS, a meandering current of Atlantic origin) path and variability, as well as the upwelling-induced south Sicilian coastal current, have consequences for anchovy spawning and larvae distribution. These currents transport anchovy larvae towards the Sicilian coast's south-eastern tip, where larvae are then retained in a frontal structure. However, significant cross-shore transport events due to relatively cold filament-like baroclinic instabilities generated by wind-induced coastal upwelling were also observed. Finally, the larval age distribution qualitatively agrees well with this transport pattern.
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Moody, John A.
2017-01-01
A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes.Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture—laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated sediment stored in channels or on floodplains, and to provide insight into the interpretation of recent or ancient fluvial deposits.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moody, John A.
2017-10-01
A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes. Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture-laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated sediment stored in channels or on floodplains, and to provide insight into the interpretation of recent or ancient fluvial deposits.
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Dang, Hao Dan; Chen, Yu; Shi, Xiao Hua; Hou, Bo; Xing, Hai Qun; Zhang, Tao; Chen, Xing Ming; Zhang, Zhu Hua; Xue, Hua Dan; Jin, Zheng Yu
2018-04-28
Objective To evaluate the correlation of the positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MR) parameters with the pathological differentiation of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma(HNSCC) and the diagnostic efficiencies of PET/MR parameters. Methods Patients with clinical suspicion of HNSCC were included and underwent PET/MR scan. HNSCC was pathologically confirmed in all these patients. The PET/MR examination included PET and MR sequences of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and T2-and T1-weighted imaging. The multiple parameters of PET/MR included the mean values of apparent diffusion coefficient(ADC mean ) and the maximum and mean values of standardized uptake value (SUV max and SUV mean ) were measured and estimated. The correlations of all the parameters and distribution between the different tumor differentiation groups were analyzed. Logistic regression was utilized to build the model as the PET/MR combined parameter for predicting the differentiation by multiple parameters of PET/MR. The receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated for each parameter and the combination. Results Totally 23 patients were included in this study:9 patients (9 males and 0 female) had well-differentiated tumor,with an average age of (61.0±6.8)years;14 cases had moderately-differentiated (n=10) or poorly-differentiated tumors (n=4),with an average age of (62.0±9.1) years. All the patients were males. There was statistical correlation between SUV mean and SUV max (P<0.001);however,ADC mean showed no statistical correlation with SUV max and with SUV mean (P=0.42,P=0.13). ADC mean and SUV mean showed significant difference between well-differentiated group and moderately-poorly-differentiated group (P=0.005,P=0.007). Compared with the individual parameters,the combination of PET/MR parameters with SUV mean and ADC mean had higher efficacy in predicting tumor differentiation,with an area under curve of 0.84. Conclusions The distributions of ADC mean ,SUV max and SUV mean differ among HNSCC with different pathological differentiation. Compared with the individual parameters,the combination of the PET/MR parameters has higher efficiency in predicting tumor differentiation.
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Development of reference equations for spirometry in Japanese children aged 6-18 years.
Takase, Masato; Sakata, Hiroshi; Shikada, Masahiro; Tatara, Katsuyoshi; Fukushima, Takayoshi; Miyakawa, Tomoo
2013-01-01
Spirometry is the most widely used pulmonary function test and the measured values of spirometric parameters need to be evaluated using reference values predicted for the corresponding race, sex, age, and height. However, none of the existing reference equations for Japanese children covers the entire age range of 6-18 years. The Japanese Society of Pediatric Pulmonology had organized a working group in 2006, in order to develop a new set of national standard reference equations for commonly used spirometric parameters that are applicable through the age range of 6-18 years. Quality assured spirometric data were collected through 2006-2008, from 14 institutions in Japan. We applied multiple regression analysis, using age in years (A), square of age (A(2)), height in meters (H), square of height (H(2)), and the product of age and height (AH) as explanatory variables to predict forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV(1)), peak expiratory flow (PEF), forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of the FVC (FEF(25-75%)), instantaneous forced expiratory flow when 50% (FEF(50%)) or 75% (FEF(75%)) of the FVC have been expired. Finally, 1,296 tests (674 boys, 622 girls) formed the reference data set. Distributions of the percent predicted values did not differ by ages, confirming excellent fit of the prediction equations throughout the entire age range from 6 to 18 years. Cut-off values (around 5 percentile points) for the parameters were also determined. We recommend the use of this new set of prediction equations together with suggested cut-off values, for assessment of spirometry in Japanese children and adolescents. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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A Quadriparametric Model to Describe the Diversity of Waves Applied to Hormonal Data.
Abdullah, Saman; Bouchard, Thomas; Klich, Amna; Leiva, Rene; Pyper, Cecilia; Genolini, Christophe; Subtil, Fabien; Iwaz, Jean; Ecochard, René
2018-05-01
Even in normally cycling women, hormone level shapes may widely vary between cycles and between women. Over decades, finding ways to characterize and compare cycle hormone waves was difficult and most solutions, in particular polynomials or splines, do not correspond to physiologically meaningful parameters. We present an original concept to characterize most hormone waves with only two parameters. The modelling attempt considered pregnanediol-3-alpha-glucuronide (PDG) and luteinising hormone (LH) levels in 266 cycles (with ultrasound-identified ovulation day) in 99 normally fertile women aged 18 to 45. The study searched for a convenient wave description process and carried out an extended search for the best fitting density distribution. The highly flexible beta-binomial distribution offered the best fit of most hormone waves and required only two readily available and understandable wave parameters: location and scale. In bell-shaped waves (e.g., PDG curves), early peaks may be fitted with a low location parameter and a low scale parameter; plateau shapes are obtained with higher scale parameters. I-shaped, J-shaped, and U-shaped waves (sometimes the shapes of LH curves) may be fitted with high scale parameter and, respectively, low, high, and medium location parameter. These location and scale parameters will be later correlated with feminine physiological events. Our results demonstrate that, with unimodal waves, complex methods (e.g., functional mixed effects models using smoothing splines, second-order growth mixture models, or functional principal-component- based methods) may be avoided. The use, application, and, especially, result interpretation of four-parameter analyses might be advantageous within the context of feminine physiological events. Schattauer GmbH.
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Some properties of a 5-parameter bivariate probability distribution
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tubbs, J. D.; Brewer, D. W.; Smith, O. E.
1983-01-01
A five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution having two shape parameters, two location parameters and a correlation parameter was developed. This more general bivariate gamma distribution reduces to the known four-parameter distribution. The five-parameter distribution gives a better fit to the gust data. The statistical properties of this general bivariate gamma distribution and a hypothesis test were investigated. Although these developments have come too late in the Shuttle program to be used directly as design criteria for ascent wind gust loads, the new wind gust model has helped to explain the wind profile conditions which cause large dynamic loads. Other potential applications of the newly developed five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution are in the areas of reliability theory, signal noise, and vibration mechanics.
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Astrophysical properties of star clusters in the Magellanic Clouds homogeneously estimated by ASteCA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perren, G. I.; Piatti, A. E.; Vázquez, R. A.
2017-06-01
Aims: We seek to produce a homogeneous catalog of astrophysical parameters of 239 resolved star clusters, located in the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds, observed in the Washington photometric system. Methods: The cluster sample was processed with the recently introduced Automated Stellar Cluster Analysis (ASteCA) package, which ensures both an automatized and a fully reproducible treatment, together with a statistically based analysis of their fundamental parameters and associated uncertainties. The fundamental parameters determined for each cluster with this tool, via a color-magnitude diagram (CMD) analysis, are metallicity, age, reddening, distance modulus, and total mass. Results: We generated a homogeneous catalog of structural and fundamental parameters for the studied cluster sample and performed a detailed internal error analysis along with a thorough comparison with values taken from 26 published articles. We studied the distribution of cluster fundamental parameters in both Clouds and obtained their age-metallicity relationships. Conclusions: The ASteCA package can be applied to an unsupervised determination of fundamental cluster parameters, which is a task of increasing relevance as more data becomes available through upcoming surveys. A table with the estimated fundamental parameters for the 239 clusters analyzed is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/602/A89
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Tse, Chi-Shing; Balota, David A; Yap, Melvin J; Duchek, Janet M; McCabe, David P
2010-05-01
The characteristics of response time (RT) distributions beyond measures of central tendency were explored in 3 attention tasks across groups of young adults, healthy older adults, and individuals with very mild dementia of the Alzheimer's type (DAT). Participants were administered computerized Stroop, Simon, and switching tasks, along with psychometric tasks that tap various cognitive abilities and a standard personality inventory (NEO-FFI). Ex-Gaussian (and Vincentile) analyses were used to capture the characteristics of the RT distributions for each participant across the 3 tasks, which afforded 3 components: mu and sigma (mean and standard deviation of the modal portion of the distribution) and tau (the positive tail of the distribution). The results indicated that across all 3 attention tasks, healthy aging produced large changes in the central tendency mu parameter of the distribution along with some change in sigma and tau (mean etap(2) = .17, .08, and .04, respectively). In contrast, early stage DAT primarily produced an increase in the tau component (mean etap(2) = .06). tau was also correlated with the psychometric measures of episodic/semantic memory, working memory, and processing speed, and with the personality traits of neuroticism and conscientiousness. Structural equation modeling indicated a unique relation between a latent tau construct (-.90), as opposed to sigma (-.09) and mu constructs (.24), with working memory measures. The results suggest a critical role of attentional control systems in discriminating healthy aging from early stage DAT and the utility of RT distribution analyses to better specify the nature of such change.
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Physical properties of star clusters in the outer LMC as observed by the DES
Pieres, A.; Santiago, B.; Balbinot, E.; ...
2016-05-26
The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) harbors a rich and diverse system of star clusters, whose ages, chemical abundances, and positions provide information about the LMC history of star formation. We use Science Verification imaging data from the Dark Energy Survey to increase the census of known star clusters in the outer LMC and to derive physical parameters for a large sample of such objects using a spatially and photometrically homogeneous data set. Our sample contains 255 visually identified cluster candidates, of which 109 were not listed in any previous catalog. We quantify the crowding effect for the stellar sample producedmore » by the DES Data Management pipeline and conclude that the stellar completeness is < 10% inside typical LMC cluster cores. We therefore develop a pipeline to sample and measure stellar magnitudes and positions around the cluster candidates using DAOPHOT. We also implement a maximum-likelihood method to fit individual density profiles and colour-magnitude diagrams. For 117 (from a total of 255) of the cluster candidates (28 uncatalogued clusters), we obtain reliable ages, metallicities, distance moduli and structural parameters, confirming their nature as physical systems. The distribution of cluster metallicities shows a radial dependence, with no clusters more metal-rich than [Fe/H] ~ -0.7 beyond 8 kpc from the LMC center. Furthermore, the age distribution has two peaks at ≃ 1.2 Gyr and ≃ 2.7 Gyr.« less
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Physical properties of star clusters in the outer LMC as observed by the DES
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pieres, A.; Santiago, B.; Balbinot, E.
The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) harbors a rich and diverse system of star clusters, whose ages, chemical abundances, and positions provide information about the LMC history of star formation. We use Science Verification imaging data from the Dark Energy Survey to increase the census of known star clusters in the outer LMC and to derive physical parameters for a large sample of such objects using a spatially and photometrically homogeneous data set. Our sample contains 255 visually identified cluster candidates, of which 109 were not listed in any previous catalog. We quantify the crowding effect for the stellar sample producedmore » by the DES Data Management pipeline and conclude that the stellar completeness is < 10% inside typical LMC cluster cores. We therefore develop a pipeline to sample and measure stellar magnitudes and positions around the cluster candidates using DAOPHOT. We also implement a maximum-likelihood method to fit individual density profiles and colour-magnitude diagrams. For 117 (from a total of 255) of the cluster candidates (28 uncatalogued clusters), we obtain reliable ages, metallicities, distance moduli and structural parameters, confirming their nature as physical systems. The distribution of cluster metallicities shows a radial dependence, with no clusters more metal-rich than [Fe/H] ~ -0.7 beyond 8 kpc from the LMC center. Furthermore, the age distribution has two peaks at ≃ 1.2 Gyr and ≃ 2.7 Gyr.« less
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Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans
Eric J. Gustafson; Nathan L. Murphy; Thomas R. Crow
2001-01-01
A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data...
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Results on angular distributions of thermal dileptons in nuclear collisions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Usai, Gianluca; NA60 Collaboration
2009-11-01
The NA60 experiment at the CERN SPS has studied dimuon production in 158 AGeV In-In collisions. The strong pair excess above the known sources found in the mass region 0.2
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First Results on Angular Distributions of Thermal Dileptons in Nuclear Collisions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnaldi, R.; Banicz, K.; Castor, J.; Chaurand, B.; Cicalò, C.; Colla, A.; Cortese, P.; Damjanovic, S.; David, A.; de Falco, A.; Devaux, A.; Ducroux, L.; En'Yo, H.; Fargeix, J.; Ferretti, A.; Floris, M.; Förster, A.; Force, P.; Guettet, N.; Guichard, A.; Gulkanian, H.; Heuser, J. M.; Keil, M.; Kluberg, L.; Lourenço, C.; Lozano, J.; Manso, F.; Martins, P.; Masoni, A.; Neves, A.; Ohnishi, H.; Oppedisano, C.; Parracho, P.; Pillot, P.; Poghosyan, T.; Puddu, G.; Radermacher, E.; Ramalhete, P.; Rosinsky, P.; Scomparin, E.; Seixas, J.; Serci, S.; Shahoyan, R.; Sonderegger, P.; Specht, H. J.; Tieulent, R.; Usai, G.; Veenhof, R.; Wöhri, H. K.
2009-06-01
The NA60 experiment at the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron has studied dimuon production in 158AGeV In-In collisions. The strong excess of pairs above the known sources found in the complete mass region 0.2
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Gajski, Goran; Gerić, Marko; Oreščanin, Višnja; Garaj-Vrhovac, Vera
2018-02-01
The cytokinesis-block micronucleus cytome (CBMN Cyt) assay was used to evaluate the baseline frequency of cytogenetic damage in peripheral blood lymphocytes of the general population (average age, 38.28 ± 12.83 years) in relation to age, sex, body mass index, seasonal variations (season of sampling, period of sampling and different meteorological parameters) and lifestyle factors (smoking habit, alcohol consumption, exposure to medications and diagnostic radiation, physical activity, and family history of cancer). The background frequency of micronuclei (MNi) for the 200 subjects assayed was 5.06 ± 3.11 per 1000 binucleated cells, while the mean frequency of nucleoplasmic bridges (NPBs) was 1.21 ± 1.46 and of nuclear buds (NBUDs) 3.48 ± 2.14. The background frequency of apoptosis and necrosis was 1.58 ± 1.50 and 1.39 ± 1.56, respectively, while the mean nuclear division index (NDI) was 1.99 ± 0.14. The cut-off value, which corresponds to the 95th percentile of the distribution of 200 individual values, was 11 MNi, 4 NPBs and 7 NBUDs. The study also confirmed an association of the above mentioned parameters with age, sex and several lifestyle factors. Moreover, significant confounders based on our results are also sampling season, sampling period and different meteorological parameters that were dependent on the CBMN Cyt assay parameters. In line with the above mentioned, several factors should be taken into account when it comes to the monitoring of exposed populations using cytogenetic biomarkers. Moreover, the normal and cut-off values obtained in this study present background data for the general population, and can later serve as baseline values for further biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Study on the Aging Behaviors of Rubber Materials in Tension and Compression Loads
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Can; Wang, Hongyu; Ma, Xiaobing
Rubber materials are widely used in aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding, automobile and other military field. However, rubber materials are easy to aging, which largely restricts its using life. In working environment, due to the combined effect of heat and oxygen, vulcanized rubber will undergo degradation and crosslinking reaction which will cause elasticity decease and permanent deformation, so mostly rubber products are used under stress state. Due to the asymmetric structure and asymmetric stress distribution, mechanical stress may cause serious damage to molecular structure; therefore, this paper is aimed to analyze the aging behavior of rubber materials under tensile and compressive loadings, through analyzing experiment data, and adopting Gauss function to describe stress relaxation coefficient, to build an aging equation containing compression ratio parameter and aging time.
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Analysis of the silicone polymer surface aging profile with laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Xilin; Hong, Xiao; Wang, Han; Chen, Can; Zhao, Chenlong; Jia, Zhidong; Wang, Liming; Zou, Lin
2017-10-01
Silicone rubber composite materials have been widely used in high voltage transmission lines for anti-pollution flashover. The aging surface of silicone rubber materials decreases service properties, causing loss of the anti-pollution ability. In this paper, as an analysis method requiring no sample preparation that is able to be conducted on site and suitable for nearly all types of materials, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was used for the analysis of newly prepared and aging (out of service) silicone rubber composites. With scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and hydrophobicity test, LIBS was proven to be nearly non-destructive for silicone rubber. Under the same LIBS testing parameters, a linear relationship was observed between ablation depth and laser pulses number. With the emission spectra, all types of elements and their distribution in samples along the depth direction from the surface to the inner part were acquired and verified with EDS results. This research showed that LIBS was suitable to detect the aging layer depth and element distribution of the silicone rubber surface.
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Assessment of corneal properties based on statistical modeling of OCT speckle
Jesus, Danilo A.; Iskander, D. Robert
2016-01-01
A new approach to assess the properties of the corneal micro-structure in vivo based on the statistical modeling of speckle obtained from Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is presented. A number of statistical models were proposed to fit the corneal speckle data obtained from OCT raw image. Short-term changes in corneal properties were studied by inducing corneal swelling whereas age-related changes were observed analyzing data of sixty-five subjects aged between twenty-four and seventy-three years. Generalized Gamma distribution has shown to be the best model, in terms of the Akaike’s Information Criterion, to fit the OCT corneal speckle. Its parameters have shown statistically significant differences (Kruskal-Wallis, p < 0.001) for short and age-related corneal changes. In addition, it was observed that age-related changes influence the corneal biomechanical behaviour when corneal swelling is induced. This study shows that Generalized Gamma distribution can be utilized to modeling corneal speckle in OCT in vivo providing complementary quantified information where micro-structure of corneal tissue is of essence. PMID:28101409
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[THE CONSTITUTIONAL ANATOMICAL CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WOMEN OF MATURE AGE].
Nikitiuk, D B; Nikolenko, V N; Klochkova, S V; Minnibayev, T Sh; Timoshenko, K T
2015-01-01
A comprehensive anthropometric and bioelectrical study of 651 women of mature age (relative norm) aged 22 to 55 years living in the Moscow region, was conducted. The somatotyping was performed according to I.B. Galant-V.P. Chtetzov-B.A. Ni kitiuk scheme. The quantitative distribution of women according to their somatotypological characteristics was obtained, the anthropometric peculiarities and the specific features of body composition in women belonging to different somatotypes were determined. It was found that among the women of mature age studied, mesoplastic (26.9%) and stenoplastici (16.7%) somatotypes were dominant. The least frequently encountered were the representatives of asthenic (1.7%) and athletic (5.2%) somatic types. Women of different somatotypes vary significantly in height and weight and other anthropometric parameters.
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Árnadóttir, Í.; Gíslason, M. K.; Carraro, U.
2016-01-01
Muscle degeneration has been consistently identified as an independent risk factor for high mortality in both aging populations and individuals suffering from neuromuscular pathology or injury. While there is much extant literature on its quantification and correlation to comorbidities, a quantitative gold standard for analyses in this regard remains undefined. Herein, we hypothesize that rigorously quantifying entire radiodensitometric distributions elicits more muscle quality information than average values reported in extant methods. This study reports the development and utility of a nonlinear trimodal regression analysis method utilized on radiodensitometric distributions of upper leg muscles from CT scans of a healthy young adult, a healthy elderly subject, and a spinal cord injury patient. The method was then employed with a THA cohort to assess pre- and postsurgical differences in their healthy and operative legs. Results from the initial representative models elicited high degrees of correlation to HU distributions, and regression parameters highlighted physiologically evident differences between subjects. Furthermore, results from the THA cohort echoed physiological justification and indicated significant improvements in muscle quality in both legs following surgery. Altogether, these results highlight the utility of novel parameters from entire HU distributions that could provide insight into the optimal quantification of muscle degeneration. PMID:28115982
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Cuckle, Howard; Aitken, David; Goodburn, Sandra; Senior, Brian; Spencer, Kevin; Standing, Sue
2004-11-01
To describe and illustrate a method of setting Down syndrome screening targets and auditing performance that allows for differences in the maternal age distribution. A reference population was determined from a Gaussian model of maternal age. Target detection and false-positive rates were determined by standard statistical modelling techniques, except that the reference population rather than an observed population was used. Second-trimester marker parameters were obtained for Down syndrome from a large meta-analysis, and for unaffected pregnancies from the combined results of more than 600,000 screens in five centres. Audited detection and false-positive rates were the weighted average of the rates in five broad age groups corrected for viability bias. Weights were based on the age distributions in the reference population. Maternal age was found to approximate reasonably well to a Gaussian distribution with mean 27 years and standard deviation 5.5 years. Depending on marker combination, the target detection rates were 59 to 64% and false-positive rate 4.2 to 5.4% for a 1 in 250 term cut-off; 65 to 68% and 6.1 to 7.3% for 1 in 270 at mid-trimester. Among the five centres, the audited detection rate ranged from 7% below target to 10% above target, with audited false-positive rates better than the target by 0.3 to 1.5%. Age-standardisation should help to improve screening quality by allowing for intrinsic differences between programmes, so that valid comparisons can be made. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Wu, Huali; Yoon, Miyoung; Verner, Marc-André; Xue, Jianping; Luo, Man; Andersen, Melvin E; Longnecker, Matthew P; Clewell, Harvey J
2015-09-01
An association between serum levels of two perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and delayed age at menarche was reported in a cross-sectional study of adolescents. Because perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) have half-lives of years, growth dilution and the development of a new route of excretion (menstruation) could account for some or all of the reported association. To assess how much of the epidemiologic association between PFAS and delayed menarche can be explained by the correlation of growth and maturation with PFAS body burden. We developed a Monte Carlo (MC) physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of PFAS to simulate plasma PFAS levels in a hypothetical female population aged 2 to 20years old. Realistic distributions of physiological parameters as well as timing of growth spurts and menarche were incorporated in the model. The association between PFAS level and delayed menarche in the simulated data was compared with the reported association. The prevalence of menarche, distributions of age-dependent physiological parameters, and quartiles of serum PFAS concentrations in the simulated subjects were comparable to those reported in the epidemiologic study. The delay of menarche in days per natural log increase in PFAS concentrations in the simulated data were about one third as large as the observed values. The reported relationship between PFAS and age at menarche appears to be at least partly explained by pharmacokinetics rather than a toxic effect of these substances. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saputro, D. R. S.; Amalia, F.; Widyaningsih, P.; Affan, R. C.
2018-05-01
Bayesian method is a method that can be used to estimate the parameters of multivariate multiple regression model. Bayesian method has two distributions, there are prior and posterior distributions. Posterior distribution is influenced by the selection of prior distribution. Jeffreys’ prior distribution is a kind of Non-informative prior distribution. This prior is used when the information about parameter not available. Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution is combined with the sample information resulting the posterior distribution. Posterior distribution is used to estimate the parameter. The purposes of this research is to estimate the parameters of multivariate regression model using Bayesian method with Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, parameter estimation of β and Σ which were obtained from expected value of random variable of marginal posterior distribution function. The marginal posterior distributions for β and Σ are multivariate normal and inverse Wishart. However, in calculation of the expected value involving integral of a function which difficult to determine the value. Therefore, approach is needed by generating of random samples according to the posterior distribution characteristics of each parameter using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling algorithm.
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X-ray studies of aluminum alloy of the Al-Mg-Si system subjected to SPD processing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sitdikov, V. D.; Murashkin, M. Yu; Khasanov, M. R.; Kasatkin, I. A.; Chizhov, P. S.; Bobruk, E. V.
2014-08-01
Recently it has been established that during high pressure torsion dynamic aging takes place in aluminum Al-Mg-Si alloys resulting in formation of nanosized particles of strengthening phases in the aluminum matrix, which greatly improves the electrical conductivity and strength properties. In the present paper structural characterization of ultrafine-grained (UFG) samples of aluminum 6201 alloy produced by severe plastic deformation (SPD) was performed using X-ray diffraction analysis. As a result, structure features (lattice parameter, size of coherent scattering domains) after dynamic aging of UFG samples were determined. The size and distribution of second- phase particles in the Al matrix were assessed with regard to HPT regimes. Impact of the size and distribution of the formed secondary phases on the strength, ductility and electrical conductivity is discussed.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Woo, D.; Kumar, P.
2015-12-01
Excess reactive nitrogen in soils of intensively managed agricultural fields causes adverse environmental impact, and continues to remain a global concern. Many novel strategies have been developed to provide better management practices and, yet, the problem remains unresolved. The objective of this study is to develop a 3-dimensional model to characterize the spatially distributed ``age" of soil-nitrogen (nitrate and ammonia-ammonium) across a watershed. We use the general theory of age, which provides an assessment of the elapsed time since nitrogen is introduced into the soil system. Micro-topographic variability incorporates heterogeneity of nutrient transformations and transport associated with topographic depressions that form temporary ponds and produce prolonged periods of anoxic conditions, and roadside agricultural ditches that support rapid surface movement. This modeling effort utilizes 1-m Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. We find a significant correlation between hydrologic variability and mean nitrate age that enables assessment of preferential flow paths of nitrate leaching. The estimation of the mean nitrogen age can thus serve as a tool to disentangle complex nitrogen dynamics by providing the analysis of the time scales of soil-nitrogen transformation and transport processes without introducing additional parameters.
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Seismic quiescence in a frictional earthquake model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Braun, Oleg M.; Peyrard, Michel
2018-04-01
We investigate the origin of seismic quiescence with a generalized version of the Burridge-Knopoff model for earthquakes and show that it can be generated by a multipeaked probability distribution of the thresholds at which contacts break. Such a distribution is not assumed a priori but naturally results from the aging of the contacts. We show that the model can exhibit quiescence as well as enhanced foreshock activity, depending on the value of some parameters. This provides a generic understanding for seismic quiescence, which encompasses earlier specific explanations and could provide a pathway for a classification of faults.
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The effect of obesity and gender on body segment parameters in older adults
Chambers, April J.; Sukits, Alison L.; McCrory, Jean L.; Cham, Rakié
2010-01-01
Background Anthropometry is a necessary aspect of aging-related research, especially in biomechanics and injury prevention. Little information is available on inertial parameters in the geriatric population that account for gender and obesity effects. The goal of this study was to report body segment parameters in adults aged 65 years and older, and to investigate the impact of aging, gender and obesity. Methods Eighty-three healthy old (65–75 yrs) and elderly (>75 yrs) adults were recruited to represent a range of body types. Participants underwent a whole body dual energy x-ray absorptiometry scan. Analysis was limited to segment mass, length, longitudinal center of mass position, and frontal plane radius of gyration. A mixed-linear regression model was performed using gender, obesity, age group and two-way and three-way interactions (α=0.05). Findings Mass distribution varied with obesity and gender. Males had greater trunk and upper extremity mass while females had a higher lower extremity mass. In general, obese elderly adults had significantly greater trunk segment mass with less thigh and shank segment mass than all others. Gender and obesity effects were found in center of mass and radius of gyration. Non-obese individuals possessed a more distal thigh and shank center of mass than obese. Interestingly, females had more distal trunk center of mass than males. Interpretation Age, obesity and gender have a significant impact on segment mass, center of mass and radius of gyration in old and elderly adults. This study underlines the need to consider age, obesity and gender when utilizing anthropometric data sets. PMID:20005028
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carruba, V.
2016-09-01
Among asteroid families, the Astrid family is peculiar because of its unusual inclination distribution. Objects at a ≃ 2.764 au are quite dispersed in this orbital element, giving the family a `crab-like' appearance. Recent works showed that this feature is caused by the interaction of the family with the s - sC nodal secular resonance with Ceres, that spreads the inclination of asteroids near its separatrix. As a consequence, the currently observed distribution of the vW component of terminal ejection velocities obtained from inverting Gauss equation is quite leptokurtic, since this parameter mostly depends on the asteroids inclination. The peculiar orbital configuration of the Astrid family can be used to set constraints on key parameters describing the strength of the Yarkovsky force, such as the bulk and surface density and the thermal conductivity of surface material. By simulating various fictitious families with different values of these parameters, and by demanding that the current value of the kurtosis of the distribution in vW be reached over the estimated lifetime of the family, we obtained that the thermal conductivity of Astrid family members should be ≃0.001 W m-1 K-1, and that the surface and bulk density should be higher than 1000 kg m-3. Monte Carlo methods simulating Yarkovsky and stochastic Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) evolution of the Astrid family show its age to be T = 140 ± 30 Myr old, in good agreement with estimates from other groups. Its terminal ejection velocity parameter is in the range V_{EJ}= 5^{+17}_{-5} m s-1. Values of VEJ larger than 25 m s-1 are excluded from constraints from the current inclination distribution.
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VizieR Online Data Catalog: OGLE UBVI phot. in Baade's Window (Paczynski+, 1999)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Paczynski, B.; Udalski, A.; Szymanski, M.; Kubiak, M.; Pietrzynski, G.; Soszynski, I.; Wozniak, P.; Zebrun, K.
2000-01-01
We present UBVI photometry for 8530 stars in Baade's Window obtained during the OGLE-II microlensing survey. Among these are over one thousand red clump giants. 1391 of them have photometry with errors smaller than 0.04, 0.06, 0.12, and 0.20 mag in the I, V, B, and U-band, respectively. We constructed a map of interstellar reddening. The corrected colors of the red clump giants: (U-B)0, (B-V)0, and (V-I)0 are very well correlated, indicating that a single parameter determines the observed spread of their values, reaching almost 2mag in the (U-B)0. It seems most likely that heavy element content is the dominant parameter, but it is possible that another parameter: the age (or mass) of a star moves it along the same trajectory in the color-color diagram as the metallicity. The current ambiguity can be resolved with spectral analysis, and our catalog may be useful as a finding list of red clump giants. We point out that these K giants are more suitable for a fair determination of the distribution of metallicity than brighter M giants. We also present a compilation of UBVI data for 308 red clump giants near the Sun, for which Hipparcos parallaxes are more accurate than 10%. Spectral analysis of their metallicity may provide information about the local metallicity distribution as well as the extent to which mass (age) of these stars affects their colors. (3 data files).
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O'Reilly, Joseph E; Donoghue, Philip C J
2018-03-01
Consensus trees are required to summarize trees obtained through MCMC sampling of a posterior distribution, providing an overview of the distribution of estimated parameters such as topology, branch lengths, and divergence times. Numerous consensus tree construction methods are available, each presenting a different interpretation of the tree sample. The rise of morphological clock and sampled-ancestor methods of divergence time estimation, in which times and topology are coestimated, has increased the popularity of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) consensus tree method. The MCC method assumes that the sampled, fully resolved topology with the highest clade credibility is an adequate summary of the most probable clades, with parameter estimates from compatible sampled trees used to obtain the marginal distributions of parameters such as clade ages and branch lengths. Using both simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate that MCC trees, and trees constructed using the similar maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, often include poorly supported and incorrect clades when summarizing diffuse posterior samples of trees. We demonstrate that the paucity of information in morphological data sets contributes to the inability of MCC and MAP trees to accurately summarise of the posterior distribution. Conversely, majority-rule consensus (MRC) trees represent a lower proportion of incorrect nodes when summarizing the same posterior samples of trees. Thus, we advocate the use of MRC trees, in place of MCC or MAP trees, in attempts to summarize the results of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of morphological data.
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O’Reilly, Joseph E; Donoghue, Philip C J
2018-01-01
Abstract Consensus trees are required to summarize trees obtained through MCMC sampling of a posterior distribution, providing an overview of the distribution of estimated parameters such as topology, branch lengths, and divergence times. Numerous consensus tree construction methods are available, each presenting a different interpretation of the tree sample. The rise of morphological clock and sampled-ancestor methods of divergence time estimation, in which times and topology are coestimated, has increased the popularity of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) consensus tree method. The MCC method assumes that the sampled, fully resolved topology with the highest clade credibility is an adequate summary of the most probable clades, with parameter estimates from compatible sampled trees used to obtain the marginal distributions of parameters such as clade ages and branch lengths. Using both simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate that MCC trees, and trees constructed using the similar maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, often include poorly supported and incorrect clades when summarizing diffuse posterior samples of trees. We demonstrate that the paucity of information in morphological data sets contributes to the inability of MCC and MAP trees to accurately summarise of the posterior distribution. Conversely, majority-rule consensus (MRC) trees represent a lower proportion of incorrect nodes when summarizing the same posterior samples of trees. Thus, we advocate the use of MRC trees, in place of MCC or MAP trees, in attempts to summarize the results of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of morphological data. PMID:29106675
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Craig A. Harper; David C. Guynn
1999-01-01
We used a terrestrial vacuum to sample known area plots in order to obtain density estimates of salamanders and their primary prey, invertebrates of the forest floor. We sampled leaf litter and measured various vegetative and topographic parameters within four forest types (oak-pine, oak-hickory, mixed mesophytic and northern hardwoods) and three age classes (0-12,13-...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Witt, Annette; Ehlers, Frithjof; Luther, Stefan
2017-09-01
We have analyzed symbol sequences of heart beat annotations obtained from 24-h electrocardiogram recordings of 184 post-infarction patients (from the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial database, CAST). In the symbol sequences, each heart beat was coded as an arrhythmic or as a normal beat. The symbol sequences were analyzed with a model-based approach which relies on two-parametric peaks over the threshold (POT) model, interpreting each premature ventricular contraction (PVC) as an extreme event. For the POT model, we explored (i) the Shannon entropy which was estimated in terms of the Lempel-Ziv complexity, (ii) the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution that best fits the PVC return times, and (iii) the strength of long-range correlations quantified by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) for the two-dimensional parameter space. We have found that in the frame of our model the Lempel-Ziv complexity is functionally related to the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution. Thus, two complementary measures (entropy and strength of long-range correlations) are sufficient to characterize realizations of the two-parametric model. For the CAST data, we have found evidence for an intermediate strength of long-range correlations in the PVC timings, which are correlated to the age of the patient: younger post-infarction patients have higher strength of long-range correlations than older patients. The normalized Shannon entropy has values in the range 0.5
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Tse, Chi-Shing; Balota, David A.; Yap, Melvin J.; Duchek, Janet M.; McCabe, David P.
2009-01-01
Objective The characteristics of response time (RT) distributions beyond measures of central tendency were explored in three attention tasks across groups of young, healthy older adults and individuals with very mild dementia of the Alzheimer’s type (DAT). Method Participants were administered computerized Stroop, Simon, and Switching tasks, along with psychometric tasks that tap various cognitive abilities, and a standard personality inventory (NEO-FFI). Ex-Gaussian (and Vincentile) analyses were used to capture the characteristics of the RT distributions for each participant across the three tasks, which afforded three components: Mu, Sigma (mean and standard deviation of the modal portion of the distribution), and Tau (the positive tail of the distribution). Results The results indicated that across all three attention tasks, healthy aging produced large changes in the central tendency Mu parameter of the distribution along with some change in Sigma and Tau (mean ηp2=.17, .08, and .04, respectively). In contrast, early stage DAT primarily produced an increase in the Tau component (mean ηp2=.06). Tau was also correlated with the psychometric measures of episodic/semantic memory, working memory, and processing speed, and with the personality traits of Neuroticism and Conscientiousness. Structural equation modeling indicated a unique relation between a latent Tau construct (−.90), as opposed to Sigma (−.09) and Mu constructs (.24), with working memory measures. Conclusions The results suggest a critical role of attentional control systems in discriminating healthy aging from early stage DAT and the utility of reaction time distribution analyses to better specify the nature of such change. PMID:20438208
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Juvanhol, Leidjaira Lopes; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Chor, Dóra; Mill, José Geraldo; Griep, Rosane Härter
2017-01-01
Methodological issues are pointed to as the main sources of inconsistencies in studies about the association between job strain and blood pressure (BP)/hypertension. Our aim was to analyze the relationship between job strain and the whole BP distribution, as well as potential differences by gender, age, and use of antihypertensives. Additionally, we addressed issues relating to the operationalization of the exposure and outcome variables that influence the study of their inter-relations. We evaluated the baseline date of 12,038 participants enrolled in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) (2008–2010), a multicenter cohort study of 35–74-year-old civil servants. Job strain was assessed by the Demand-Control-Support Questionnaire. The distribution of casual BP by categories of job strain was compared by a combination of exploratory techniques. Participants were classified into three subgroups (normotensives, medicated hypertensives, and unmedicated hypertensives), and analyses were stratified by gender and age. The relationship between job strain and casual BP varied along the whole outcome distribution. Hypertensive participants had greater differences in casual BP by job strain category, especially medicated hypertensives. Differences in casual BP were also greater for systolic than for diastolic BP and for older participants. No differences were encountered by gender. The exclusion of participants susceptible to misclassification for the exposure and outcome variables increased the differences observed between the categories of low and high job strain. In conclusion, the relationship between job strain and casual BP varied along the whole outcome distribution and by use of antihypertensive drugs, age, and BP parameter evaluated. Misclassification for exposure and outcome variables should be considered in analyses of this topic. PMID:28441727
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Juvanhol, Leidjaira Lopes; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Chor, Dóra; Mill, José Geraldo; Griep, Rosane Härter
2017-04-22
Methodological issues are pointed to as the main sources of inconsistencies in studies about the association between job strain and blood pressure (BP)/hypertension. Our aim was to analyze the relationship between job strain and the whole BP distribution, as well as potential differences by gender, age, and use of antihypertensives. Additionally, we addressed issues relating to the operationalization of the exposure and outcome variables that influence the study of their inter-relations. We evaluated the baseline date of 12,038 participants enrolled in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) (2008-2010), a multicenter cohort study of 35-74-year-old civil servants. Job strain was assessed by the Demand-Control-Support Questionnaire. The distribution of casual BP by categories of job strain was compared by a combination of exploratory techniques. Participants were classified into three subgroups (normotensives, medicated hypertensives, and unmedicated hypertensives), and analyses were stratified by gender and age. The relationship between job strain and casual BP varied along the whole outcome distribution. Hypertensive participants had greater differences in casual BP by job strain category, especially medicated hypertensives. Differences in casual BP were also greater for systolic than for diastolic BP and for older participants. No differences were encountered by gender. The exclusion of participants susceptible to misclassification for the exposure and outcome variables increased the differences observed between the categories of low and high job strain. In conclusion, the relationship between job strain and casual BP varied along the whole outcome distribution and by use of antihypertensive drugs, age, and BP parameter evaluated. Misclassification for exposure and outcome variables should be considered in analyses of this topic.
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Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species
Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.
2017-01-01
We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Yan; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zhang, Caiping; Zhang, Weige; Gao, Yang; Guo, Qipei
2017-08-01
To assess the economic benefits of battery reuse, the consistency and aging characteristics of a retired LiFePO4 battery pack are studied in this paper. The consistency of battery modules is analyzed from the perspective of the capacity and the internal resistance. Test results indicate that battery module parameter dispersion increases along with battery aging. However, battery modules with better capacity consistency doesn't ensure better resistance consistency. Then the aging characteristics of the battery pack are analyzed and the main results are as follow: (1) Weibull and normal distribution are feasible to fit the capacity and resistance distribution of battery modules respectively; (2) SOC imbalance is the dominating factor in the capacity fading process of the battery pack; (3) By employing the incremental capacity (IC) and IC peak area analysis, a consistency evaluation method representing the aging mechanism variations of the battery modules is proposed and then an accurate battery screening strategy is put forward. This study not only provides data support for evaluating economic benefits of retired batteries but also presents a method to recognize the battery aging variations, which is helpful for rapid evaluation and screening of retired batteries for 2nd use.
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[Distribution of HOMA-IR among children and adolescent in Zhangzhou and Zhongshan cities].
He, Jinshui; Lin, Guomo; Zhang, Yugui; Ye, Xiaoling; Liu, Fuxing; Liu, Linyong
2015-07-01
To investigate the distribution of the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) among children and adolescent in Zhangzhou city and Zhongshan city. Total of 3102 children and adolescent aged 6 to 18-year-old were recruited, which were enrolled in a population-based cross-sectional study. Anthropometric and biochemical parameters were measured. A total of 1528 (49.26%) girls and 1574 (50.74%) boys were included in this study. The concentrations of insulin and fasting glucose gradually increased from 6 to 18 years of age, there was no statistical difference between boys ang girls. The mean values for the BMI were similar in age-matched boys and girls from 6 to 18-year-old ,but for 12 to 15-year-old children was significantly higher in the girls compared with the boys and conversely for 16 to 18-year-old (P < 0.05). The HOMA-IR gradually increased with age and reached a plateau at 12 years of age and there was no markedly differential in gender. The glucose levels, insulin concentrations and HOMA-IR exhibited a gradual increase with age. It was suggested that the evaluation of IR in children should be based on percentiles of the HOMA-IR rather than a dichotomous value derived from a single cutoff point.
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Stochastic Sampling in the IMF of Galactic Open Clusters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kay, Christina; Hancock, M.; Canalizo, G.; Smith, B. J.; Giroux, M. L.
2010-01-01
We sought observational evidence of the effects of stochastic sampling of the initial mass function by investigating the integrated colors of a sample of Galactic open clusters. In particular we looked for scatter in the integrated (V-K) color as previous research resulted in little scatter in the (U-B) and (B-V) colors. Combining data from WEBDA and 2MASS we determined three different colors for 287 open clusters. Of these clusters, 39 have minimum uncertainties in age and formed a standard set. A plot of the (V-K) color versus age showed much more scatter than the (U-B) versus age. We also divided the sample into two groups based on a lowest luminosity limit which is a function of age and V magnitude. We expected the group of clusters fainter than this limit to show more scatter than the brighter group. Assuming the published ages, we compared the reddening corrected observed colors to those predicted by Starburst99. The presence of stochastic sampling should increase scatter in the distribution of the differences between observed and model colors of the fainter group relative to the brighter group. However, we found that K-S tests cannot rule out that the distribution of color difference for the brighter and fainter sets come from the same parent distribution. This indistinguishabilty may result from uncertainties in the parameters used to define the groups. This result constrains the size of the effects of stochastic sampling of the initial mass function.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Butterworth, N.; Steinberg, D.; Müller, R. D.; Williams, S.; Merdith, A. S.; Hardy, S.
2016-12-01
Porphyry ore deposits are known to be associated with arc magmatism on the overriding plate at subduction zones. While general mechanisms for driving magmatism are well established, specific subduction-related parameters linking episodes of ore deposit formation to specific tectonic environments have only been qualitatively inferred and have not been formally tested. We develop a four-dimensional approach to reconstruct age-dated ore deposits, with the aim of isolating the tectonomagmatic parameters leading to the formation of copper deposits during subduction. We use a plate tectonic model with continuously closing plate boundaries, combined with reconstructions of the spatiotemporal distribution of the ocean floor, including subducted portions of the Nazca/Farallon plates. The models compute convergence rates and directions, as well as the age of the downgoing plate through time. To identify and quantify tectonic parameters that are robust predictors of Andean porphyry copper magmatism and ore deposit formation, we test two alternative supervised machine learning methods; the "random forest" (RF) ensemble and "support vector machines" (SVM). We find that a combination of rapid convergence rates ( 100 km/Myr), subduction obliquity of 15°, a subducting plate age between 25-70 Myr old, and a location far from the subducting trench boundary (>2000 km) represents favorable conditions for porphyry magmatism and related ore deposits to occur. These parameters are linked to the availability of oceanic sediments, the changing small-scale convection around the subduction zone, and the availability of the partial melt in the mantle wedge. When coupled, these parameters could influence the genesis and exhumation of porphyry copper deposits.
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Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.
2017-12-01
Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.
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Effects of Contaminated Site Age on Dissolution Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jawitz, J. W.
2004-12-01
This work presents a streamtube-based analytical approach to evaluate reduction in groundwater contaminant flux resulting from partial mass reduction in a nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) source zone. The reduction in contaminant flux, Rj, discharged from the source zone is a remediation performance metric that has a direct effect on the fundamental drivers of remediation: protection of human health risks and the environment. Spatial variability is described within a Lagrangian framework where aquifer hydrodynamic heterogeneities are characterized using nonreactive travel time distributions, while NAPL spatial distribution heterogeneity can be similarly described using reactive travel time distributions. The combined statistics of these distributions are used to evaluate the relationship between reduction in contaminant mass, Rm, and Rj. A portion of the contaminant mass in the source zone is assumed to be removed via in-situ flushing remediation, with the initial and final conditions defined as steady-state natural-gradient groundwater flow through the contaminant source zone. The combined effect of aquifer and NAPL heterogeneities are shown to be captured in a single parameter, reactive travel time variability, that was determined to be the most important factor controlling the relationship between Rm and Rj. Increased values of the following parameters are shown to result in more favorable contaminant elution dynamics (i.e., greater flux reduction for a given reduction in mass): aquifer hydrodynamic heterogeneity, NAPL source zone heterogeneity, positive correlation between travel time and NAPL content, and time since the contamination event. Less favorable elution behavior is shown to result from negative correlations between travel time and NAPL content and rate-limited dissolution. The specific emphasis of this presentation is on the effects of the length of time that has elapsed since the contamination event (site age) on the dissolution dynamics.
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Reassessing The Fundamentals New Constraints on the Evolution, Ages and Masses of Neutron Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kızıltan, Bülent
2011-09-01
The ages and masses of neutron stars (NSs) are two fundamental threads that make pulsars accessible to other sub-disciplines of astronomy and physics. A realistic and accurate determination of these two derived parameters play an important role in understanding of advanced stages of stellar evolution and the physics that govern relevant processes. Here I summarize new constraints on the ages and masses of NSs with an evolutionary perspective. I show that the observed P-Ṗ demographics is more diverse than what is theoretically predicted for the standard evolutionary channel. In particular, standard recycling followed by dipole spin-down fails to reproduce the population of millisecond pulsars with higher magnetic fields (B > 4 × 108 G) at rates deduced from observations. A proper inclusion of constraints arising from binary evolution and mass accretion offers a more realistic insight into the age distribution. By analytically implementing these constraints, I propose a ``modified'' spin-down age (τ~) for millisecond pulsars that gives estimates closer to the true age. Finally, I independently analyze the peak, skewness and cutoff values of the underlying mass distribution from a comprehensive list of radio pulsars for which secure mass measurements are available. The inferred mass distribution shows clear peaks at 1.35 Msolar and 1.50 Msolar for NSs in double neutron star (DNS) and neutron star-white dwarf (NS-WD) systems respectively. I find a mass cutoff at 2 Msolar for NSs with WD companions, which establishes a firm lower bound for the maximum mass of NSs.
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Insole-pressure distribution for normal children in different age groups.
Liu, Xue-Cheng; Lyon, Roger; Thometz, John G; Curtin, Brian; Tarima, Serge; Tassone, Channing
2011-09-01
In measuring plantar pressures during gait, earlier methods have used a platform system that does not take into account the interactions feet have with orthotics and shoe wearing. The purpose of the study was to provide normal insole plantar pressure parameter data during stance phase using the Pedar pressure insole system. Twenty-nine normal children, age 6 to 16 years, were recruited and walked along the 25 m walkway at self-selected speeds. Patients were divided into 2 separate groups for statistical analysis--juniors (< 12 y old) and teenagers (> 13 y old). The pressure map was divided into 8 regions (masks) determined by anatomic landmarks and a total of 7 pressure parameters were analyzed of each mask. We did not detect significant differences in foot pressures between juniors and teenagers when regarding sex, or left and right feet for 7 parameters measured. This normative data will provide a basis with which to more accurately assess pediatric pathologic foot deformities and to distinguish dynamic foot deformities from anatomic foot deformities. THE LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Mather, Barry A; Boemer, Jens C.; Vittal, Eknath
The response of low voltage networks with high penetration of PV systems to transmission network faults will, in the future, determine the overall power system performance during certain hours of the year. The WECC distributed PV system model (PVD1) is designed to represent small-scale distribution-connected systems. Although default values are provided by WECC for the model parameters, tuning of those parameters seems to become important in order to accurately estimate the partial loss of distributed PV systems for bulk system studies. The objective of this paper is to describe a new methodology to determine the WECC distributed PV system (PVD1)more » model parameters and to derive parameter sets obtained for six distribution circuits of a Californian investor-owned utility with large amounts of distributed PV systems. The results indicate that the parameters for the partial loss of distributed PV systems may differ significantly from the default values provided by WECC.« less
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A Four–Component Model of Age–Related Memory Change
Healey, M. Karl; Kahana, Michael J.
2015-01-01
We develop a novel, computationally explicit, theory of age–related memory change within the framework of the context maintenance and retrieval (CMR2) model of memory search. We introduce a set of benchmark findings from the free recall and recognition tasks that includes aspects of memory performance that show both age-related stability and decline. We test aging theories by lesioning the corresponding mechanisms in a model fit to younger adult free recall data. When effects are considered in isolation, many theories provide an adequate account, but when all effects are considered simultaneously, the existing theories fail. We develop a novel theory by fitting the full model (i.e., allowing all parameters to vary) to individual participants and comparing the distributions of parameter values for older and younger adults. This theory implicates four components: 1) the ability to sustain attention across an encoding episode, 2) the ability to retrieve contextual representations for use as retrieval cues, 3) the ability to monitor retrievals and reject intrusions, and 4) the level of noise in retrieval competitions. We extend CMR2 to simulate a recognition memory task using the same mechanisms the free recall model uses to reject intrusions. Without fitting any additional parameters, the four–component theory that accounts for age differences in free recall predicts the magnitude of age differences in recognition memory accuracy. Confirming a prediction of the model, free recall intrusion rates correlate positively with recognition false alarm rates. Thus we provide a four–component theory of a complex pattern of age differences across two key laboratory tasks. PMID:26501233
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Investigating task inhibition in children versus adults: A diffusion model analysis.
Schuch, Stefanie; Konrad, Kerstin
2017-04-01
One can take n-2 task repetition costs as a measure of inhibition on the level of task sets. When switching back to a Task A after only one intermediate trial (ABA task sequence), Task A is thought to still be inhibited, leading to performance costs relative to task sequences where switching back to Task A is preceded by at least two intermediary trials (CBA). The current study investigated differences in inhibitory ability between children and adults by comparing n-2 task repetition costs in children (9-11years of age, N=32) and young adults (21-30years of age, N=32). The mean reaction times and error rate differences between ABA and CBA sequences did not differ between the two age groups. However, diffusion model analysis revealed that different cognitive processes contribute to the inhibition effect in the two age groups: The adults, but not the children, showed a smaller drift rate in ABA than in CBA, suggesting that persisting task inhibition is associated with slower response selection in adults. In children, non-decision time was longer in ABA than in CBA, possibly reflecting longer task preparation in ABA than in CBA. In addition, Ex-Gaussian functions were fitted to the distributions of correct reaction times. In adults, the ABA-CBA difference was reflected in the exponential parameter of the distribution; in children, the ABA-CBA difference was found in the Gaussian mu parameter. Hence, Ex-Gaussian analysis, although noisier, was generally in line with diffusion model analysis. Taken together, the data suggest that the task inhibition effect found in mean performance is mediated by different cognitive processes in children versus adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rorke, J. B.; Moffett, R. C.
1977-01-01
A wind tunnel test was conducted to obtain vortex velocity signatures over a wide parameter range encompassing the data conditions of several previous researchers while maintaining a common instrumentation and test facility. The generating wing panel was configured with both a revolved airfoil tip shape and a square tip shape and had a semispan aspect of 4.05/1.0 with a 121.9 cm span. Free stream velocity was varied from 6.1 m/sec to 76.2 m/sec and the vortex core velocities were measured at locations 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 chordlengths downstream of the wing trailing edge, yielding vortex ages up to 2.0 seconds. Wing pitch angles of 6, 8, 9 and 12 deg were investigated. Detailed surface pressure distributions and wing force measurements were obtained for each wing tip configuration. Correlation with vortex velocity data taken in previous experiments is good. During the rollup process, vortex core parameters appear to be dependent primarily on vortex age. Trending in the plateau and decay regions is more complex and the machanisms appear to be more unstable.
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On the problem of modeling for parameter identification in distributed structures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Norris, Mark A.; Meirovitch, Leonard
1988-01-01
Structures are often characterized by parameters, such as mass and stiffness, that are spatially distributed. Parameter identification of distributed structures is subject to many of the difficulties involved in the modeling problem, and the choice of the model can greatly affect the results of the parameter identification process. Analogously to control spillover in the control of distributed-parameter systems, identification spillover is shown to exist as well and its effect is to degrade the parameter estimates. Moreover, as in modeling by the Rayleigh-Ritz method, it is shown that, for a Rayleigh-Ritz type identification algorithm, an inclusion principle exists in the identification of distributed-parameter systems as well, so that the identified natural frequencies approach the actual natural frequencies monotonically from above.
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Age slowing down in detection and visual discrimination under varying presentation times.
Moret-Tatay, Carmen; Lemus-Zúñiga, Lenin-Guillermo; Tortosa, Diana Abad; Gamermann, Daniel; Vázquez-Martínez, Andrea; Navarro-Pardo, Esperanza; Conejero, J Alberto
2017-08-01
The reaction time has been described as a measure of perception, decision making, and other cognitive processes. The aim of this work is to examine age-related changes in executive functions in terms of demand load under varying presentation times. Two tasks were employed where a signal detection and a discrimination task were performed by young and older university students. Furthermore, a characterization of the response time distribution by an ex-Gaussian fit was carried out. The results indicated that the older participants were slower than the younger ones in signal detection and discrimination. Moreover, the differences between both processes for the older participants were higher, and they also showed a higher distribution average except for the lower and higher presentation time. The results suggest a general slowdown in both tasks for age under different presentation times, except for the cases where presentation times were lower and higher. Moreover, if these parameters are understood to be a reflection of executive functions, these findings are consistent with the common view that age-related cognitive deficits show a decline in this function. © 2017 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Fallon, M; Pazos, M; Morilla, A; Sebastián, M A; Xancó, R; Mora, C; Calderón, B; Vega, Z; Antón, A
2015-11-01
To evaluate morphological parameters of optic disc and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) examined with confocal laser tomography (HRT3) and laser polarimetry (GDx-VCC) in a normal population, and analyze correlations of these parameters with demographic variables. Cross-sectional study in the context of a glaucoma screening campaign in the primary care center of Barcelona. The individuals selected were non-hypertensive Mediterranean Caucasians with risk for glaucoma development (individuals≥60 years old or≥40 years old with family history of glaucoma or intraocular pressure or myopia>3diopter). All subjects underwent a complete ophthalmic examination, confocal laser tomography (HRT3) and scanning laser polarimetry (GDX-VCC), subjects with results within normal limits only being included. Structural parameters were analyzed along with age, refraction, and pachymetry based on the Spearman rank correlation test. A total of 224 subjects included, with a mean age of 63.4±11.1 years. Disc areas, excavation and ring area were 2.14±0.52mm(2), 0.44±0.34mm (2) and 1.69±0.38mm(2), respectively. The mean RNFL (GDX) was 55.9±6.9μm. Age was correlated with lower ring volume, highest rate of cup shape measure, largest mean and maximum cup depth, lower nerve fiber index (NFI) and RNFL (all p-values below .05). The mean values and distribution of several parameters of the papilla and the RNFL in normal Mediterranean Caucasians population are presented. A loss of thickness of the RNFL, ring thinning, and enlarged cup was observed with increased age. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
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Reddening and age for 13 southern Galactic open clusters determined from integrated spectra
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahumada, A. V.; Clariá, J. J.; Bica, E.; Dutra, C. M.; Torres, M. C.
2001-10-01
In this study we present flux-calibrated integrated spectra in the range 3800-6800 Å for 13 concentrated open clusters with Galactic longitudes between 219deg and 316deg, nine of which have not been previously studied. Using the equivalent widths of the Balmer lines and comparing the cluster spectra with template spectra of Magellanic Clouds and Galactic star clusters with known parameters, we derive both foreground interstellar reddening values and age. For nine clusters these two parameters have been determined for the first time, while for the rest of the sample the results show good agreement with previous studies. The present analysis indicates four very young (Hogg 11, NGC 5606, vdB-RN 80 and Pismis 17), seven moderately young (ESO 429-SC13, Hogg 3, Hogg 12, Haffner 7, BH 87, NGC 2368 and Bochum 12) and two intermediate-age (Berkeley 75 and NGC 2635) open clusters. The derived foreground interstellar reddening values are in the range 0.00 <= E(B-V) <= 0.38. The age and reddening distributions of the present sample of relatively faint open clusters match those of open clusters with known parameters in a 90deg sector centered at l = 270deg. Based on observations made at Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito, which is operated under agreement between the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas de la República Argentina and the National Universities of La Plata, Córdoba and San Juan, Argentina.
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Properties of z ~ 3-6 Lyman break galaxies. II. Impact of nebular emission at high redshift
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de Barros, S.; Schaerer, D.; Stark, D. P.
2014-03-01
Context. To gain insight on the mass assembly and place constraints on the star formation history (SFH) of Lyman break galaxies (LBGs), it is important to accurately determine their properties. Aims: We estimate how nebular emission and different SFHs affect parameter estimation of LBGs. Methods: We present a homogeneous, detailed analysis of the spectral energy distribution (SED) of ~1700 LBGs from the GOODS-MUSIC catalogue with deep multi-wavelength photometry from the U band to 8 μm to determine stellar mass, age, dust attenuation, and star formation rate. Using our SED fitting tool, which takes into account nebular emission, we explore a wide parameter space. We also explore a set of different star formation histories. Results: Nebular emission is found to significantly affect the determination of the physical parameters for the majority of z ~ 3-6 LBGs. We identify two populations of galaxies by determining the importance of the contribution of emission lines to broadband fluxes. We find that ~65% of LBGs show detectable signs of emission lines, whereas ~35% show weak or no emission lines. This distribution is found over the entire redshift range. We interpret these groups as actively star-forming and more quiescent LBGs, respectively. We find that it is necessary to considerer SED fits with very young ages (<50 Myr) to reproduce some colours affected by strong emission lines. Other arguments favouring episodic star formation and relatively short star formation timescales are also discussed. Considering nebular emission generally leads to a younger age, lower stellar mass, higher dust attenuation, higher star formation rate, and a large scatter in the SFR-M⋆ relation. Our analysis yields a trend of increasing specific star formation rate with redshift, as predicted by recent galaxy evolution models. Conclusions: The physical parameters of approximately two thirds of high redshift galaxies are significantly modified when we account for nebular emission. The SED models, which include nebular emission shed new light on the properties of LBGs with numerous important implications. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lalonde, S. V.; Smith, D. S.; Owttrim, G. W.; Konhauser, K. O.
2008-03-01
Significant efforts have been made to elucidate the chemical properties of bacterial surfaces for the purposes of refining surface complexation models that can account for their metal sorptive behavior under diverse conditions. However, the influence of culturing conditions on surface chemical parameters that are modeled from the potentiometric titration of bacterial surfaces has received little regard. While culture age and metabolic pathway have been considered as factors potentially influencing cell surface reactivity, statistical treatments have been incomplete and variability has remained unconfirmed. In this study, we employ potentiometric titrations to evaluate variations in bacterial surface ligand distributions using live cells of the sheathless cyanobacterium Anabaena sp. strain PCC 7120, grown under a variety of batch culture conditions. We evaluate the ability for a single set of modeled parameters, describing acid-base surface properties averaged over all culture conditions tested, to accurately account for the ligand distributions modeled for each individual culture condition. In addition to considering growth phase, we assess the role of the various assimilatory nitrogen metabolisms available to this organism as potential determinants of surface reactivity. We observe statistically significant variability in site distribution between the majority of conditions assessed. By employing post hoc Tukey-Kramer analysis for all possible pair-wise condition comparisons, we conclude that the average parameters are inadequate for the accurate chemical description of this cyanobacterial surface. It was determined that for this Gram-negative bacterium in batch culture, ligand distributions were influenced to a greater extent by nitrogen assimilation pathway than by growth phase.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ma Jun; Wang Song; Wu Zhenyu
2012-02-15
B514 is a remote M31 globular cluster (GC) which is located at a projected distance of R{sub p} {approx_equal} 55 kpc. Deep observations with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on the Hubble Space Telescope are used to provide accurate integrated light and star counts of B514. By coupling the analysis of the distribution of the integrated light with star counts, we are able to reliably follow the profile of the cluster out to {approx}40''. Based on the combined profile, we study in detail its surface brightness distribution in the F606W and F814W filters and determine its structural parameters by fittingmore » a single-mass isotropic King model. The results showed that the surface brightness distribution departs from the best-fit King model for r > 10''. B514 is quite flat in the inner region and has a larger half-light radius than the majority of normal GCs of the same luminosity. It is interesting that, in the M{sub V} versus log R{sub h} plane, B514 lies nearly on the threshold for ordinary GCs as defined by Mackey and van den Bergh. In addition, B514 was observed as part of the Beijing-Arizona-Taiwan-Connecticut (BATC) Multicolor Sky Survey, using 13 intermediate-band filters covering a wavelength range of 3000-8500 A. Based on aperture photometry, we obtain its spectral energy distributions (SEDs) as defined by the 13 BATC filters. We determine the cluster's age and mass by comparing its SEDs (from 2267 to 20000 Angstrom-Sign , comprised of photometric data from the near-ultraviolet band of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer, 5 Sloan Digital Sky Survey bands, 13 BATC intermediate-band filters, and Two Micron All Sky Survey near-infrared JHK{sub s} filters) with theoretical stellar population synthesis models, resulting in an age of 11.5 {+-} 3.5 Gyr. This age confirms the previous suggestion that B514 is an old GC in M31. B514 has a mass of 0.96-1.08 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 6} M{sub Sun} and is a medium-mass GC in M31.« less
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Age, growth, and size of Lake Superior Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii)
Stewart, Taylor; Derek Ogle,; Gorman, Owen T.; Vinson, Mark
2016-01-01
Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii) are a small, glacial relict species with a disjunct distribution in North America and Siberia. In 2013 we collected Pygmy Whitefish at 28 stations from throughout Lake Superior. Total length was recorded for all fish and weight and sex were recorded and scales and otoliths were collected from a subsample. We compared the precision of estimated ages between readers and between scales and otoliths, estimated von Bertalanffy growth parameters for male and female Pygmy Whitefish, and reported the first weight-length relationship for Pygmy Whitefish. Age estimates between scales and otoliths differed significantly with otolith ages significantly greater for most ages after age-3. Maximum otolith age was nine for females and seven for males, which is older than previously reported for Pygmy Whitefish from Lake Superior. Growth was initially fast but slowed considerably after age-3 for males and age-4 for females, falling to 3–4 mm per year at maximum estimated ages. Females were longer than males after age-3. Our results suggest the size, age, and growth of Pygmy Whitefish in Lake Superior have not changed appreciably since 1953.
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Uncertainties in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models
Cote, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Oshea, Brian W.; ...
2016-06-15
Here we use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number ofmore » SNe Ia per M ⊙ formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Cote, Benoit; Ritter, Christian; Oshea, Brian W.
Here we use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number ofmore » SNe Ia per M ⊙ formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dana L. Kelly; Albert Malkhasyan
2010-06-01
There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performedmore » for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “industry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an application of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates the development of a generic prior distribution, which incorporates multiple sources of generic data via weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khanmohammadi, Neda; Rezaie, Hossein; Montaseri, Majid; Behmanesh, Javad
2017-10-01
The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in water management plans in arid or semi-arid countries such as Iran. For this reason, the regional analysis of this parameter is important. But, ET0 process is affected by several meteorological parameters such as wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the effect of distribution type of effective meteorological variables on ET0 distribution was analyzed. For this purpose, the regional probability distribution of the annual ET0 and its effective parameters were selected. Used data in this research was recorded data at 30 synoptic stations of Iran during 1960-2014. Using the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test and the L-moment method, five common distributions were compared and the best distribution was selected. The results of PPCC test and L-moment diagram indicated that the Pearson type III distribution was the best probability distribution for fitting annual ET0 and its four effective parameters. The results of RMSE showed that the ability of the PPCC test and L-moment method for regional analysis of reference evapotranspiration and its effective parameters was similar. The results also showed that the distribution type of the parameters which affected ET0 values can affect the distribution of reference evapotranspiration.
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Recovering Parameters of Johnson's SB Distribution
Bernard R. Parresol
2003-01-01
A new parameter recovery model for Johnson's SB distribution is developed. This latest alternative approach permits recovery of the range and both shape parameters. Previous models recovered only the two shape parameters. Also, a simple procedure for estimating the distribution minimum from sample values is presented. The new methodology...
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Transmuted of Rayleigh Distribution with Estimation and Application on Noise Signal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahmed, Suhad; Qasim, Zainab
2018-05-01
This paper deals with transforming one parameter Rayleigh distribution, into transmuted probability distribution through introducing a new parameter (λ), since this studied distribution is necessary in representing signal data distribution and failure data model the value of this transmuted parameter |λ| ≤ 1, is also estimated as well as the original parameter (⊖) by methods of moments and maximum likelihood using different sample size (n=25, 50, 75, 100) and comparing the results of estimation by statistical measure (mean square error, MSE).
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Sleep Stage Transition Dynamics Reveal Specific Stage 2 Vulnerability in Insomnia.
Wei, Yishul; Colombo, Michele A; Ramautar, Jennifer R; Blanken, Tessa F; van der Werf, Ysbrand D; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Feige, Bernd; Riemann, Dieter; Van Someren, Eus J W
2017-09-01
Objective sleep impairments in insomnia disorder (ID) are insufficiently understood. The present study evaluated whether whole-night sleep stage dynamics derived from polysomnography (PSG) differ between people with ID and matched controls and whether sleep stage dynamic features discriminate them better than conventional sleep parameters. Eighty-eight participants aged 21-70 years, including 46 with ID and 42 age- and sex-matched controls without sleep complaints, were recruited through www.sleepregistry.nl and completed two nights of laboratory PSG. Data of 100 people with ID and 100 age- and sex-matched controls from a previously reported study were used to validate the generalizability of findings. The second night was used to obtain, in addition to conventional sleep parameters, probabilities of transitions between stages and bout duration distributions of each stage. Group differences were evaluated with nonparametric tests. People with ID showed higher empirical probabilities to transition from stage N2 to the lighter sleep stage N1 or wakefulness and a faster decaying stage N2 bout survival function. The increased transition probability from stage N2 to stage N1 discriminated people with ID better than any of their deviations in conventional sleep parameters, including less total sleep time, less sleep efficiency, more stage N1, and more wake after sleep onset. Moreover, adding this transition probability significantly improved the discriminating power of a multiple logistic regression model based on conventional sleep parameters. Quantification of sleep stage dynamics revealed a particular vulnerability of stage N2 in insomnia. The feature characterizes insomnia better than-and independently of-any conventional sleep parameter. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.
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The Relationship of Mean Platelet Volume/Platelet Distribution Width and Duodenal Ulcer Perforation.
Fan, Zhe; Zhuang, Chengjun
2017-03-01
Duodenal ulcer perforation (DUP) is a severe acute abdominal disease. Mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet distribution width (PDW) are two platelet parameters, participating in many inflammatory processes. This study aims to investigate the relation of MPV/PDW and DUP. A total of 165 patients were studied retrospectively, including 21 females and 144 males. The study included two groups: 87 normal patients (control group) and 78 duodenal ulcer perforation patients (DUP group). Routine blood parameters were collected for analysis including white blood cell count (WBC), neutrophil ratio (NR), platelet count (PLT), MPV and PDW. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was applied to evaluate the parameters' sensitivity. No significant differences were observed between the control group and DUP group in age and gender. WBC, NR and PDW were significantly increased in the DUP group ( P <0.001, respectively); PLT and MPV were significantly decreased in the DUP group ( P <0.001, respectively) compared to controls. MPV had the high sensitivity. Our results suggested a potential association between MPV/PDW and disease activity in DUP patients, and high sensitivity of MPV. © 2017 by the Association of Clinical Scientists, Inc.
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Naranjo, Ramon C.
2013-01-01
Biochemical reactions that occur in the hyporheic zone are highly dependent on the time solutes that are in contact with sediments of the riverbed. In this investigation, we developed a 2-D longitudinal flow and solute-transport model to estimate the spatial distribution of mean residence time in the hyporheic zone. The flow model was calibrated using observations of temperature and pressure, and the mean residence times were simulated using the age-mass approach for steady-state flow conditions. The approach used in this investigation includes the mixing of different ages and flow paths of water through advection and dispersion. Uncertainty of flow and transport parameters was evaluated using standard Monte Carlo and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Results of parameter estimation support the presence of a low-permeable zone in the riffle area that induced horizontal flow at a shallow depth within the riffle area. This establishes shallow and localized flow paths and limits deep vertical exchange. For the optimal model, mean residence times were found to be relatively long (9–40.0 days). The uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity resulted in a mean interquartile range (IQR) of 13 days across all piezometers and was reduced by 24% with the inclusion of temperature and pressure observations. To a lesser extent, uncertainty in streambed porosity and dispersivity resulted in a mean IQR of 2.2 and 4.7 days, respectively. Alternative conceptual models demonstrate the importance of accounting for the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity in simulating mean residence times in a riffle-pool sequence.
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Smalley, Hannah K; Keskinocak, Pinar; Swann, Julie; Hinman, Alan
2015-11-17
In addition to improved sanitation, hygiene, and better access to safe water, oral cholera vaccines can help to control the spread of cholera in the short term. However, there is currently no systematic method for determining the best allocation of oral cholera vaccines to minimize disease incidence in a population where the disease is endemic and resources are limited. We present a mathematical model for optimally allocating vaccines in a region under varying levels of demographic and incidence data availability. The model addresses the questions of where, when, and how many doses of vaccines to send. Considering vaccine efficacies (which may vary based on age and the number of years since vaccination), we analyze distribution strategies which allocate vaccines over multiple years. Results indicate that, given appropriate surveillance data, targeting age groups and regions with the highest disease incidence should be the first priority, followed by other groups primarily in order of disease incidence, as this approach is the most life-saving and cost-effective. A lack of detailed incidence data results in distribution strategies which are not cost-effective and can lead to thousands more deaths from the disease. The mathematical model allows for what-if analysis for various vaccine distribution strategies by providing the ability to easily vary parameters such as numbers and sizes of regions and age groups, risk levels, vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, production capacity and budget. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Poggel, Dorothe A; Treutwein, Bernhard; Calmanti, Claudia; Strasburger, Hans
2012-08-01
Temporal performance parameters vary across the visual field. Their topographical distributions relative to each other and relative to basic visual performance measures and their relative change over the life span are unknown. Our goal was to characterize the topography and age-related change of temporal performance. We acquired visual field maps in 95 healthy participants (age: 10-90 years): perimetric thresholds, double-pulse resolution (DPR), reaction times (RTs), and letter contrast thresholds. DPR and perimetric thresholds increased with eccentricity and age; the periphery showed a more pronounced age-related increase than the center. RT increased only slightly and uniformly with eccentricity. It remained almost constant up to the age of 60, a marked change occurring only above 80. Overall, age was a poor predictor of functionality. Performance decline could be explained only in part by the aging of the retina and optic media. In Part II, we therefore examine higher visual and cognitive functions.
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Skomudek, Aleksandra; Gilowska, Iwona; Jasiński, Ryszard; Rożek-Piechura, Krystyna
2017-01-01
The elderly are particularly vulnerable to degenerative diseases, such as circulatory and respiratory system and vascular system diseases. The objective of this study was therefore to evaluate the distribution of temperature and the dynamics of venous blood flow in the lower limbs (LLs) and to assess the interdependence of these parameters in terms of the somatic components in males and females participating in activities at the University of the Third Age. The study included 60 females (mean age 67.4 years) and 40 males (mean age 67.5 years). A body composition assessment was performed using the bioimpedance technique - Tanita BC-418MA. The following parameters were examined: fat%, fat mass, fat-free mass, and total body water. The minimal, maximal, and mean temperature values and their distributions were examined using infrared thermographic camera VarioCAM Head. Measurements of the venous refilling time and the work of the LL venous pump were examined using a Rheo Dopplex II PPG. In males, the mean value of the right LL temperature was 30.58 and the mean value of the left LL was 30.28; the P -value was 0.805769. In females, the mean value of the right LL temperature was 29.58 and the mean value of the left limb was 29.52; the P -value was 0.864773. In males, the right limb blood flow was 34.17 and the left limb blood flow was 34.67; the P -value was 0.359137. In females, the right limb blood flow was 26.89 and the left limb blood flow was 26.09; the P -value was 0.796348. Research results showed that the temperature distribution and the dynamics of blood flow are not significantly different between the right and left extremities in both males and females. However, significant temperature differences were found between the gender groups. Significantly higher temperature values in both the right and left extremities were recorded in males than in females.
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X-ray studies of dynamic aging in an aluminum alloy subjected to severe plastic deformation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sitdikov, V.D., E-mail: svil@mail.rb.ru; Laboratory for Mechanics of Bulk Nanomaterials, Saint Petersburg State University, 28 Universitetsky pr., Saint Petersburg 198504; Chizhov, P.S.
In this work, X-ray scattering methods were applied for a quantitative characterization of the microstructure of an aluminum alloy of the Al–Mg–Si system during dynamic aging realized through the high pressure torsion technique. A qualitative and quantitative phase analysis of the alloy was performed, together with Al alloy lattice parameter determination. From the reflections broadening the effective size of the coherent scattering domains and the lattice microstrain were determined in the framework of the Halder–Wagner approach. Using the method of small-angle X-ray scattering, the quantitative characteristics of the size, shape and spatial distribution of the secondary phase particles formed inmore » the Al alloy during dynamic aging were established. In order to validate the obtained results, the method of small-angle X-ray scattering was preliminarily tested on similar samples after artificial aging and compared with the results from small-angle neutron diffraction widely known in literature. - Highlights: • Spherical fcc β-Mg2Si precipitates formed in Al 6201 alloy during dynamic aging in the course of severe plastic deformation. • The size, shape and distribution of the precipitates due to artificial and dynamic aging were revealed by SAXS method. • Monoclinic needle-like β' precipitates and Al5FeSi intermetallic phase were detected in 6201 alloy after T6 treatment.« less
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A case cluster of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease linked to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Coulthart, Michael B; Geschwind, Michael D; Qureshi, Shireen; Phielipp, Nicolas; Demarsh, Alex; Abrams, Joseph Y; Belay, Ermias; Gambetti, Pierluigi; Jansen, Gerard H; Lang, Anthony E; Schonberger, Lawrence B
2016-10-01
As of mid-2016, 231 cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease-the human form of a prion disease of cattle, bovine spongiform encephalopathy-have been reported from 12 countries. With few exceptions, the affected individuals had histories of extended residence in the UK or other Western European countries during the period (1980-96) of maximum global risk for human exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. However, the possibility remains that other geographic foci of human infection exist, identification of which may help to foreshadow the future of the epidemic. We report results of a quantitative analysis of country-specific relative risks of infection for three individuals diagnosed with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the USA and Canada. All were born and raised in Saudi Arabia, but had histories of residence and travel in other countries. To calculate country-specific relative probabilities of infection, we aligned each patient's life history with published estimates of probability distributions of incubation period and age at infection parameters from a UK cohort of 171 variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease cases. The distributions were then partitioned into probability density fractions according to time intervals of the patient's residence and travel history, and the density fractions were combined by country. This calculation was performed for incubation period alone, age at infection alone, and jointly for incubation and age at infection. Country-specific fractions were normalized either to the total density between the individual's dates of birth and symptom onset ('lifetime'), or to that between 1980 and 1996, for a total of six combinations of parameter and interval. The country-specific relative probability of infection for Saudi Arabia clearly ranked highest under each of the six combinations of parameter × interval for Patients 1 and 2, with values ranging from 0.572 to 0.998, respectively, for Patient 2 (age at infection × lifetime) and Patient 1 (joint incubation and age at infection × 1980-96). For Patient 3, relative probabilities for Saudi Arabia were not as distinct from those for other countries using the lifetime interval: 0.394, 0.360 and 0.378, respectively, for incubation period, age at infection and jointly for incubation and age at infection. However, for this patient Saudi Arabia clearly ranked highest within the 1980-96 period: 0.859, 0.871 and 0.865, respectively, for incubation period, age at infection and jointly for incubation and age at infection. These findings support the hypothesis that human infection with bovine spongiform encephalopathy occurred in Saudi Arabia. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2016. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Public Health.
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Søeby, Karen; Jensen, Peter Bjødstrup; Werge, Thomas; Sørensen, Steen
2015-09-01
The knowledge of physiological fluctuation and variation of even commonly used biochemical quantities in extreme age groups and during development is sparse. This challenges the clinical interpretation and utility of laboratory tests in these age groups. To explore the utility of hospital laboratory data as a source of information, we analyzed enzymatic plasma creatinine as a model analyte in two large pediatric hospital samples. Plasma creatinine measurements from 9700 children aged 0-18 years were obtained from hospital laboratory databases and partitioned into high-resolution gender- and age-groups. Normal probability plots were used to deduce parameters of the normal distributions from healthy creatinine values in the mixed hospital datasets. Furthermore, temporal trajectories were generated from repeated measurements to examine developmental patterns in periods of changing creatinine levels. Creatinine shows great age dependence from birth throughout childhood. We computed and replicated 95% reference intervals in narrow gender and age bins and showed them to be comparable to those determined in healthy population studies. We identified pronounced transitions in creatinine levels at different time points after birth and around the early teens, which challenges the establishment and usefulness of reference intervals in those age groups. The study documents that hospital laboratory data may inform on the developmental aspects of creatinine, on periods with pronounced heterogeneity and valid reference intervals. Furthermore, part of the heterogeneity in creatinine distribution is likely due to differences in biological and chronological age of children and should be considered when using age-specific reference intervals.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koda, M.; Seinfeld, J. H.
1982-01-01
The reconstruction of a concentration distribution from spatially averaged and noise-corrupted data is a central problem in processing atmospheric remote sensing data. Distributed parameter observer theory is used to develop reconstructibility conditions for distributed parameter systems having measurements typical of those in remote sensing. The relation of the reconstructibility condition to the stability of the distributed parameter observer is demonstrated. The theory is applied to a variety of remote sensing situations, and it is found that those in which concentrations are measured as a function of altitude satisfy the conditions of distributed state reconstructibility.
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Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.
Chatterjee, Snehamoy
2014-01-01
This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olurotimi, E. O.; Sokoya, O.; Ojo, J. S.; Owolawi, P. A.
2018-03-01
Rain height is one of the significant parameters for prediction of rain attenuation for Earth-space telecommunication links, especially those operating at frequencies above 10 GHz. This study examines Three-parameter Dagum distribution of the rain height over Durban, South Africa. 5-year data were used to study the monthly, seasonal, and annual variations using the parameters estimated by the maximum likelihood of the distribution. The performance estimation of the distribution was determined using the statistical goodness of fit. Three-parameter Dagum distribution shows an appropriate distribution for the modeling of rain height over Durban with the Root Mean Square Error of 0.26. Also, the shape and scale parameters for the distribution show a wide variation. The probability exceedance of time for 0.01% indicates the high probability of rain attenuation at higher frequencies.
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Kodati, Devender; Kotakonda, Harish Kaushik; Yellu, Narsimhareddy
2017-08-01
Olmesartan medoxomil is an orally given angiotensin II receptor antagonist indicated for the treatment of hypertension. The aim of the study was to establish a population pharmacokinetic model for olmesartan, the active metabolite of olmesartan medoxomil, in Indian hypertensive patients, and to evaluate effects of covariates on the volume of distribution (V/F) and oral clearance (CL/F) of olmesartan. The population pharmacokinetic model for olmesartan was developed using Phoenix NLME 1.3 with a non-linear mixed-effect model. Bootstrap and visual predictive check were used simultaneously to validate the final population pharmacokinetic models. The covariates included age, sex, body surface area (BSA), bodyweight, height, creatinine clearance (CL CR ) as an index of renal function and liver parameters as indices of hepatic function. A total of 205 olmesartan plasma sample concentrations from 69 patients with hypertension were collected in this study. The pharmacokinetic data of olmesartan was well described by a two-compartment linear pharmacokinetic model with first-order absorption and an absorption lag-time. The mean values of CL/F and V/F of olmesartan in the patients were 0.31565 L/h and 44.5162 L, respectively. Analysis of covariates showed that age and CL CR were factors influencing the clearance of olmesartan and the volume of distribution of olmesartan was dependent on age and BSA. The final population pharmacokinetic model was demonstrated to be appropriate and effective and it can be used to assess the pharmacokinetic parameters of olmesartan in Indian patients with hypertension.
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Mathematical Model to estimate the wind power using four-parameter Burr distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Sanming; Wang, Zhijie; Pan, Zhaoxu
2018-03-01
When the real probability of wind speed in the same position needs to be described, the four-parameter Burr distribution is more suitable than other distributions. This paper introduces its important properties and characteristics. Also, the application of the four-parameter Burr distribution in wind speed prediction is discussed, and the expression of probability distribution of output power of wind turbine is deduced.
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Intraocular straylight screening in medical testing centres for driver licence holders in Spain
Michael, Ralph; Barraquer, Rafael I.; Rodríguez, Judith; Tuñi i Picado, Josep; Jubal, Joan Serra; González Luque, Juan Carlos; van den Berg, Tom
2010-01-01
Purpose To test the performance of the C-quant straylight meter during the daily routine work in medical testing centres for driver license applicants and driver license holders in Spain. Methods Altogether 914 subjects, of which 376 younger than 35 years, 428 between 35 and 60 years and 110 over 60 years were measured with the C-quant in three medical testing centres (Barcelona, Zaragoza and Palma de Mallorca) in 2006. Technicians were instructed once and the measurements were done during the daily routine work. We recorded: age, BCVA, self-reported subjective blinding at night; and from the C-quant: straylight parameter (log s), measurement quality parameters (ESD, Q) and test duration. Results Total C-quant test duration increases slightly with age from a mean of 7 min (< 35 years) to a mean of 9 min (> 60). At first attempt, 82 % of all subjects produced reliable results (ESD < 0.12). The straylight parameter for this group was independent of ESD and ESD was independent of total test duration. The known age dependence of the straylight parameter and the weak correlation with BCVA was confirmed. The distribution of subjective blinding at night was very different between test centres. Subjects with “very strong” subjective blinding had significantly higher straylight values than subjects with “no” subjective blinding. Subjects avoiding night driving had significant higher straylight values than subjects driving at night. Conclusion The C-quant measure is reasonable fast. Good subject instruction is important to get first attempt reliable results. Self-reported subjective blinding results depend strongly on the interviewer.
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Damage identification in highway bridges using distribution factors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gangone, Michael V.; Whelan, Matthew J.
2017-04-01
The U.S. infrastructure system is well behind the needs of the 21st century and in dire need of improvements. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) graded America's Infrastructure as a "D+" in its recent 2013 Report Card. Bridges are a major component of the infrastructure system and were awarded a "C+". Nearly 25 percent of the nation's bridges are categorized as deficient by the Federal Highway Administration (FWHA). Most bridges were designed with an expected service life of roughly 50 years and today the average age of a bridge is 42 years. Finding alternative methods of condition assessment which captures the true performance of the bridge is of high importance. This paper discusses the monitoring of two multi-girder/stringer bridges at different ages of service life. Normal strain measurements were used to calculate the load distribution factor at the midspan of the bridge under controlled loading conditions. Controlled progressive damage was implemented to one of the superstructures to determine if the damage could be detected using the distribution factor. An uncertainty analysis, based on the accuracy and precision of the normal strain measurement, was undertaken to determine how effective it is to use the distribution factor measurement as a damage indicator. The analysis indicates that this load testing parameter may be an effective measure for detecting damage.
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Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik
2017-10-31
We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.
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Nekkanty, Srikant; Yerramshetty, Janardhan; Kim, Do-Gyoon; Zauel, Roger; Johnson, Evan; Cody, Dianna D.; Yeni, Yener N.
2013-01-01
Stress magnitude and variability as estimated from large scale finite element (FE) analyses have been associated with compressive strength of human vertebral cancellous cores but these relationships have not been explored for whole vertebral bodies. In this study, the objectives were to investigate the relationship of FE-calculated stress distribution parameters with experimentally determined strength, stiffness, and displacement based ductility measures in human whole vertebral bodies, investigate the effect of endplate loading conditions on vertebral stiffness, strength, and ductility and test the hypothesis that endplate topography affects vertebral ductility and stress distributions. Eighteen vertebral bodies (T6-L3 levels; 4 female and 5 male cadavers, aged 40-98 years) were scanned using a flat panel CT system and followed with axial compression testing with Wood’s metal as filler material to maintain flat boundaries between load plates and specimens. FE models were constructed using reconstructed CT images and filler material was added digitally. Two different FE models with different filler material modulus simulating Wood’s metal and intervertebral disc (W-layer and D-layer models) were used. Element material modulus to cancellous bone was based on image gray value. Average, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of von Mises stress in vertebral bone for W-layer and D-layer models and also the ratios of FE parameters from the two models (W/D) were calculated. Inferior and superior endplate surface topographical distribution parameters were calculated. Experimental stiffness, maximum load and work to fracture had the highest correlation with FE-calculated stiffness while experimental ductility measures had highest correlations with FE-calculated average von Mises stress and W-layer to D-layer stiffness ratio. Endplate topography of the vertebra was also associated with its structural ductility and the distribution parameter that best explained this association was kurtosis of inferior endplate topography. Our results indicate that endplate topography variations may provide insight into the mechanisms responsible for vertebral fractures. PMID:20633709
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Falcaro, Milena; Pickles, Andrew
2007-02-10
We focus on the analysis of multivariate survival times with highly structured interdependency and subject to interval censoring. Such data are common in developmental genetics and genetic epidemiology. We propose a flexible mixed probit model that deals naturally with complex but uninformative censoring. The recorded ages of onset are treated as possibly censored ordinal outcomes with the interval censoring mechanism seen as arising from a coarsened measurement of a continuous variable observed as falling between subject-specific thresholds. This bypasses the requirement for the failure times to be observed as falling into non-overlapping intervals. The assumption of a normal age-of-onset distribution of the standard probit model is relaxed by embedding within it a multivariate Box-Cox transformation whose parameters are jointly estimated with the other parameters of the model. Complex decompositions of the underlying multivariate normal covariance matrix of the transformed ages of onset become possible. The new methodology is here applied to a multivariate study of the ages of first use of tobacco and first consumption of alcohol without parental permission in twins. The proposed model allows estimation of the genetic and environmental effects that are shared by both of these risk behaviours as well as those that are specific. 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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The fundamental stellar parameters of FGK stars in the SEEDS survey Norman, OK 73071, USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rich, Evan A.; Wisniewski, John P.; McElwain, Michael W.; Hashimoto, Jun; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Okamoto, Yoshiko K.; Abe, Lyu; Akiyama, Eiji; Brandner, Wolfgang; Brandt, Timothy D.; Cargile, Phillip; Carson, Joseph C.; Currie, Thayne M.; Egner, Sebastian; Feldt, Markus; Fukagawa, Misato; Goto, Miwa; Grady, Carol A.; Guyon, Olivier; Hayano, Yutaka; Hayashi, Masahiko; Hayashi, Saeko S.; Hebb, Leslie; Hełminiak, Krzysztof G.; Henning, Thomas; Hodapp, Klaus W.; Ishii, Miki; Iye, Masanori; Janson, Markus; Kandori, Ryo; Knapp, Gillian R.; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Kwon, Jungmi; Matsuo, Taro; Mayama, Satoshi; Miyama, Shoken; Momose, Munetake; Morino, Jun-Ichi; Moro-Martin, Amaya; Nakagawa, Takao; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Oh, Daehyeon; Pyo, Tae-Soo; Schlieder, Joshua; Serabyn, Eugene; Sitko, Michael L.; Suenaga, Takuya; Suto, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Ryuji; Takahashi, Yasuhiro H.; Takami, Michihiro; Takato, Naruhisa; Terada, Hiroshi; Thalmann, Christian; Tomono, Daigo; Turner, Edwin L.; Watanabe, Makoto; Yamada, Toru; Takami, Hideki; Usuda, Tomonori; Tamura, Motohide
2017-12-01
Large exoplanet surveys have successfully detected thousands of exoplanets to-date. Utilizing these detections and non-detections to constrain our understanding of the formation and evolution of planetary systems also requires a detailed understanding of the basic properties of their host stars. We have determined the basic stellar properties of F, K and G stars in the Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru (SEEDS) survey from Echelle spectra taken at the Apache Point Observatory's 3.5m telescope. Using ROBOSPECT to extract line equivalent widths and Temperature Gravity microtrubulent Velocity ITerations to calculate the fundamental parameters, we have computed Teff, log(g), vt, [Fe/H], chromospheric activity and the age for our sample. Our methodology was calibrated against previously published results for a portion of our sample. The distribution of [Fe/H] in our sample is consistent with that typical of the Solar neighbourhood. Additionally, we find the ages of most of our sample are <500 Myr, but note that we cannot determine robust ages from significantly older stars via chromospheric activity age indicators. The future meta-analysis of the frequency of wide stellar and sub-stellar companions imaged via the SEEDS survey will utilize our results to constrain the occurrence of detected comoving companions with the properties of their host stars.
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Biofilm responses to ageing and to a high phosphate load in a bench-scale drinking water system.
Batté, Magali; Koudjonou, Boniface; Laurent, Patrick; Mathieu, Laurence; Coallier, Josée; Prévost, Michèle
2003-03-01
The effects of ageing and of phosphate load on drinking water biofilms developed on a polycarbonate substratum in the pseudo-equilibrium state have been evaluated. Phosphate was added in an amount higher than the stochiometric nutrient requirements of bacteria, at concentrations commonly applied in a drinking water distribution system for corrosion control. Multiple parameters were monitored: heterotrophic plate counts (HPCs), total direct counts (TDCs) and potential exoproteolytic activity (PEPA) in order to characterise changes in bacterial biofilms. The total carbohydrate, amino acid and phosphate contents of biofilms were analysed to characterise and monitor the biochemical composition of the biofilm.The three enumeration methods showed that a pseudo-equilibrium state was reached after 7 weeks of colonisation after which, the bacterial growth rate in the biofilm was 0.1 log per week on average. Bulk phosphate addition doubled the phosphate in the biofilm, but did not affect the other biological, physiological or chemical parameters measured. Polysaccharides increased in the biofilm with ageing and the dynamics of individual carbohydrate synthesis also varied with the age of the biofilm. Once pseudo-equilibrium, it was found that the total proteins were globally constant, whereas the spectra of some individual amino acids of the proteins had significantly changed.
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Link, William; Hesed, Kyle Miller
2015-01-01
Knowledge of organisms’ growth rates and ages at sexual maturity is important for conservation efforts and a wide variety of studies in ecology and evolutionary biology. However, these life history parameters may be difficult to obtain from natural populations: individuals encountered may be of unknown age, information on age at sexual maturity may be uncertain and interval-censored, and growth data may include both individual heterogeneity and measurement errors. We analyzed mark–recapture data for Red-backed Salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) to compare sex-specific growth rates and ages at sexual maturity. Aging of individuals was made possible by the use of a von Bertalanffy model of growth, complemented with models for interval-censored and imperfect observations at sexual maturation. Individual heterogeneity in growth was modeled through the use of Gamma processes. Our analysis indicates that female P. cinereus mature earlier and grow more quickly than males, growing to nearly identical asymptotic size distributions as males.
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Multiverse understanding of cosmological coincidences
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bousso, Raphael; Hall, Lawrence J.; Nomura, Yasunori
2009-09-15
There is a deep cosmological mystery: although dependent on very different underlying physics, the time scales of structure formation, of galaxy cooling (both radiatively and against the CMB), and of vacuum domination do not differ by many orders of magnitude, but are all comparable to the present age of the universe. By scanning four landscape parameters simultaneously, we show that this quadruple coincidence is resolved. We assume only that the statistical distribution of parameter values in the multiverse grows towards certain catastrophic boundaries we identify, across which there are drastic regime changes. We find order-of-magnitude predictions for the cosmological constant,more » the primordial density contrast, the temperature at matter-radiation equality, the typical galaxy mass, and the age of the universe, in terms of the fine structure constant and the electron, proton and Planck masses. Our approach permits a systematic evaluation of measure proposals; with the causal patch measure, we find no runaway of the primordial density contrast and the cosmological constant to large values.« less
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Analysis of the spatial distribution of prostate cancer obtained from histopathological images
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diaz, Kristians; Castaneda, Benjamin; Montero, Maria Luisa; Yao, Jorge; Joseph, Jean; Rubens, Deborah; Parker, Kevin J.
2013-03-01
Understanding the spatial distribution of prostate cancer and how it changes according to prostate specific antigen (PSA) values, Gleason score, and other clinical parameters may help comprehend the disease and increase the overall success rate of biopsies. This work aims to build 3D spatial distributions of prostate cancer and examine the extent and location of cancer as a function of independent clinical parameters. The border of the gland and cancerous regions from wholemount histopathological images are used to reconstruct 3D models showing the localization of tumor. This process utilizes color segmentation and interpolation based on mathematical morphological distance. 58 glands are deformed into one prostate atlas using a combination of rigid, affine, and b-spline deformable registration techniques. Spatial distribution is developed by counting the number of occurrences in a given position in 3D space from each registered prostate cancer. Finally a difference between proportions is used to compare different spatial distributions. Results show that prostate cancer has a significant difference (SD) in the right zone of the prostate between populations with PSA greater and less than 5ng/ml. Age does not have any impact in the spatial distribution of the disease. Positive and negative capsule-penetrated cases show a SD in the right posterior zone. There is SD in almost all the glands between cases with tumors larger and smaller than 10% of the whole prostate. A larger database is needed to improve the statistical validity of the test. Finally, information from whole-mount histopathological images may provide better insight into prostate cancer.
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A dynamic optimization model of the diel vertical distribution of a pelagic planktivorous fish
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosland, Rune; Giske, Jarl
A stochastic dynamic optimization model for the diel depth distribution of juveniles and adults of the mesopelagic planktivore Maurolicus muelleri (Gmelin) is developed and used for a winter situation. Observations from Masfjorden, western Norway, reveal differences in vertical distribution, growth and mortality between juveniles and adults in January. Juveniles stay within the upper 100m with high feeding rates, while adults stay within the 100-150m zone with very low feeding rates during the diel cycle. The difference in depth profitability is assumed to be caused by age-dependent processes, and are calculated from a mechanistic model for visual feeding. The environment is described as a set of habitats represented by discrete depth intervals along the vertical axis, differing with respect to light intensity, food abundance, predation risk and temperature. The short time interval (24h) allows fitness to be linearly related to growth (feeding), assuming that growth increases the future reproductive output of the fish. Optimal depth position is calculated from balancing feeding opportunity against mortality risk, where the fitness reward gained by feeding is weighted against the danger of being killed by a predator. A basic run is established, and the model is validated by comparing predictions and observations. The sensitivity for different parameter values is also tested. The modelled vertical distributions and feeding patterns of juvenile and adult fish correspond well with the observations, and the assumption of age differences in mortality-feeding trade-offs seems adequate to explain the different depth profitability of the two age groups. The results indicate a preference for crepuscular feeding activity of the juveniles, and the vertical distribution of zooplankton seems to be the most important environmental factor regulating the adult depth position during the winter months in Masfjorden.
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Sorbed atrazine shifts into non-desorbable sites of soil organic matter during aging.
Park, Jeong-Hun; Feng, Yucheng; Cho, Sung Yong; Voice, Thomas C; Boyd, Stephen A
2004-11-01
Soil-chemical contact time (aging) is an important determinant of the sorption and desorption characteristics of the organic contaminants and pesticides in the environment. The effects of aging on mechanism-specific sorption and desorption of atrazine were studied in soil and clay slurries. Sorption isotherm and desorption kinetic experiments were performed, and soil-water distribution coefficients and desorption rate parameters were evaluated using linear and non-linear sorption equations and a three-site desorption model, respectively. Aging time for sorption of atrazine in sterilized soil and clay slurries ranged from 2 days to 8 months. Atrazine sorption isotherms were nearly linear (r(2)>0.97) and sorption coefficients were strongly correlated to soil organic carbon content. Sorption distribution coefficients (K(d)) increased with increase in age in all five soils studied, but not for K-montmorillonite. Sorption non-linearity did not increase with increase in age except for the Houghton muck soil. Desorption profiles were well described by the three-site desorption model. The equilibrium site fraction (f(eq)) decreased and the non-desorbable site fraction (f(nd)) increased as a function of aging time in all soils. For K-montmorillonite, f(nd) approximately 0 regardless of aging, showing that aging phenomena are sorbent/mechanism specific. In all soils, it was found that when normalized to soil organic matter content, the concentration of atrazine in desorbable sites was relatively constant, whereas that in non-desorbable site increased. This, and the lack of aging effects on desorption from montmorillonite, suggests that sorption into non-desorbable sites of soil organic matter is primary source of increased atrazine sorption in soils during aging.
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Age-related changes in visual exploratory behavior in a natural scene setting
Hamel, Johanna; De Beukelaer, Sophie; Kraft, Antje; Ohl, Sven; Audebert, Heinrich J.; Brandt, Stephan A.
2013-01-01
Diverse cognitive functions decline with increasing age, including the ability to process central and peripheral visual information in a laboratory testing situation (useful visual field of view). To investigate whether and how this influences activities of daily life, we studied age-related changes in visual exploratory behavior in a natural scene setting: a driving simulator paradigm of variable complexity was tested in subjects of varying ages with simultaneous eye- and head-movement recordings via a head-mounted camera. Detection and reaction times were also measured by visual fixation and manual reaction. We considered video computer game experience as a possible influence on performance. Data of 73 participants of varying ages were analyzed, driving two different courses. We analyzed the influence of route difficulty level, age, and eccentricity of test stimuli on oculomotor and driving behavior parameters. No significant age effects were found regarding saccadic parameters. In the older subjects head-movements increasingly contributed to gaze amplitude. More demanding courses and more peripheral stimuli locations induced longer reaction times in all age groups. Deterioration of the functionally useful visual field of view with increasing age was not suggested in our study group. However, video game-experienced subjects revealed larger saccade amplitudes and a broader distribution of fixations on the screen. They reacted faster to peripheral objects suggesting the notion of a general detection task rather than perceiving driving as a central task. As the video game-experienced population consisted of younger subjects, our study indicates that effects due to video game experience can easily be misinterpreted as age effects if not accounted for. We therefore view it as essential to consider video game experience in all testing methods using virtual media. PMID:23801970
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lancaster, S. T.; Frueh, W. T.
2011-12-01
A large number (N = 351) of radiocarbon dates of charcoal from valley-bottom sediments in headwater valleys of the southern Oregon Coast Range provides the basis for a new index of fire frequency during the past 17,000 years in this steep landscape covered by dense coniferous forest. Study areas were chosen for their relative lack of recent forest disturbance by harvest or fire, and sampling of stream banks and terrace risers was random, weighted by deposit volume and bank or riser area. This sampling methodology was designed to characterize sediment residence times within valley-bottom storage, and the overall shape of the calibrated age distribution is therefore assumed representative of the dependence of charcoal preservation probability on calibrated age. A proxy record of fire history in the study areas is obtained by fitting a gamma distribution to the weighted mean calibrated charcoal ages by the method of moments; calculating the relative difference between the fit and the normalized histogram, with 50-year bin-widths, of charcoal ages; and smoothing that relative difference with a gaussian distribution, the standard deviation of which is at least two bin-widths and inversely proportional to the value of the fit distribution at larger ages. The calibrated charcoal age mean and variance of 1900 yrs BP and 7.39 x 106 yr2, respectively, yield shape and scale parameters of the fit gamma distribution of 0.490 and 3880 yrs, respectively. This heavy-tailed distribution indicates that probabilities of charcoal evacuation are not simply proportional to relative volume of encasing sediment deposits but, rather, decrease with deposit age. The smoothed proxy record of relative fire frequency has a global maximum at 7700 BP and prominent local maxima at 600 BP and 5700 BP, in order of decreasing magnitude; a global minimum at 4500 BP and local minimum at 1800 BP roughly bracket a period of fluctuating but relatively low fire frequency during the period 5000-1500 BP. Although resolution in the late glacial to early Holocene is limited, the record shows a high relative fire frequency during the late glacial before dipping 10,000-9000 BP. The 7700 BP maximum and 1800 BP minimum are consistent with another fire history from lake sediments northeast of our sites in the Oregon Coast Range. Other features appear to contradict that record but to support of climate change inferences based on other climate proxies.
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Asquith, William H.
2014-01-01
The implementation characteristics of two method of L-moments (MLM) algorithms for parameter estimation of the 4-parameter Asymmetric Exponential Power (AEP4) distribution are studied using the R environment for statistical computing. The objective is to validate the algorithms for general application of the AEP4 using R. An algorithm was introduced in the original study of the L-moments for the AEP4. A second or alternative algorithm is shown to have a larger L-moment-parameter domain than the original. The alternative algorithm is shown to provide reliable parameter production and recovery of L-moments from fitted parameters. A proposal is made for AEP4 implementation in conjunction with the 4-parameter Kappa distribution to create a mixed-distribution framework encompassing the joint L-skew and L-kurtosis domains. The example application provides a demonstration of pertinent algorithms with L-moment statistics and two 4-parameter distributions (AEP4 and the Generalized Lambda) for MLM fitting to a modestly asymmetric and heavy-tailed dataset using R.
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Thomsen, J S; Jensen, M V; Niklassen, A S; Ebbesen, E N; Brüel, A
2015-01-01
Age-related changes of vertebra and iliac crest 3D microstructure were investigated, and we showed that they were in general similar. The 95th percentile of vertebral trabecular thickness distribution increased with age for women. Surprisingly, vertebral and iliac crest bone microstructure was only weakly correlated (r = 0.38 to 0.75), despite the overall similar age-related changes. The purposes of the study were to determine the age-related changes in iliac and vertebral bone microstructure for women and men over a large age range and to investigate the relationship between the bone microstructure at these skeletal sites. Matched sets of transiliac crest bone biopsies and lumbar vertebral body (L2) specimens from 41 women (19-96 years) and 39 men (23-95 years) were micro-computed tomography (μCT) scanned, and the 3D microstructure was quantified. For both women and men, bone volume per total volume (BV/TV), connectivity density (CD), and trabecular number (Tb.N) decreased significantly, while structure model index (SMI) and trabecular separation (Tb.Sp) increased significantly with age at either skeletal site. Vertebral trabecular thickness (Tb.Th) was independent of age for both women and men, while iliac Tb.Th decreased significantly with age for men, but not for women. In general, the vertebral and iliac age-related changes were similar. The 95th percentile of the Tb.Th distribution increased significantly with age for women but was independent of age for men at the vertebral body, while it was independent of age for either sex at the iliac crest. The Tb.Th probability density functions at the two skeletal sites became significantly more similar with age for women, but not for men. The microstructural parameters at the iliac crest and the vertebral bodies were only moderately correlated from r = 0.38 for SMI in women to r = 0.75 for Tb.Sp in men. Age-related changes in vertebral and iliac bone microstructure were in general similar. The iliac and vertebral Tb.Th distributions became more similar with age for women. Despite the overall similar age-related changes in trabecular bone microstructure, the vertebral and iliac bone microstructural measures were only weakly correlated (r = 0.38 to 0.75).
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Xu, Xueli; Jia, Yue
2011-01-01
Estimation of item response model parameters and ability distribution parameters has been, and will remain, an important topic in the educational testing field. Much research has been dedicated to addressing this task. Some studies have focused on item parameter estimation when the latent ability was assumed to follow a normal distribution,…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Małoszewski, P.; Zuber, A.
1982-06-01
Three new lumped-parameter models have been developed for the interpretation of environmental radioisotope data in groundwater systems. Two of these models combine other simpler models, i.e. the piston flow model is combined either with the exponential model (exponential distribution of transit times) or with the linear model (linear distribution of transit times). The third model is based on a new solution to the dispersion equation which more adequately represents the real systems than the conventional solution generally applied so far. The applicability of models was tested by the reinterpretation of several known case studies (Modry Dul, Cheju Island, Rasche Spring and Grafendorf). It has been shown that two of these models, i.e. the exponential-piston flow model and the dispersive model give better fitting than other simpler models. Thus, the obtained values of turnover times are more reliable, whereas the additional fitting parameter gives some information about the structure of the system. In the examples considered, in spite of a lower number of fitting parameters, the new models gave practically the same fitting as the multiparameter finite state mixing-cell models. It has been shown that in the case of a constant tracer input a prior physical knowledge of the groundwater system is indispensable for determining the turnover time. The piston flow model commonly used for age determinations by the 14C method is an approximation applicable only in the cases of low dispersion. In some cases the stable-isotope method aids in the interpretation of systems containing mixed waters of different ages. However, when 14C method is used for mixed-water systems a serious mistake may arise by neglecting the different bicarbonate contents in particular water components.
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The Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment. UBVI Photometry of Stars in Baade's Window
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Paczynski, B.; Udalski, A.; Szymanski, M.; Kubiak, M.; Pietrzynski, G.; Soszynski, I.; Wozniak, P.; Zebrun, K.
1999-09-01
We present UBVI photometry for 8530 stars in Baade's Window obtained during the OGLE-II microlensing survey. Among these are over one thousand red clump giants. 1391 of them have photometry with errors smaller than 0.04, 0.06, 0.12, and 0.20 mag in the I, V, B, and U-band, respectively. We constructed a map of interstellar reddening. The corrected colors of the red clump giants: (U-B)_0, (B-V)_0, and (V-I)_0 are very well correlated, indicating that a single parameter determines the observed spread of their values, reaching almost 2 mag in the (U-B)_0. It seems most likely that heavy element content is the dominant parameter, but it is possible that another parameter: the age (or mass) of a star moves it along the same trajectory in the color-color diagram as the metallicity. The current ambiguity can be resolved with spectral analysis, and our catalog may be useful as a finding list of red clump giants. We point out that these K giants are more suitable for a fair determination of the distribution of metallicity than brighter M giants. We also present a compilation of UBVI data for 308 red clump giants near the Sun, for which Hipparcos parallaxes are more accurate than 10%. Spectral analysis of their metallicity may provide information about the local metallicity distribution as well as the extent to which mass (age) of these stars affects their colors. It is remarkable that in spite of a number of problems, stellar models agree with observations at the 0.1-0.2 mag level, making red clump giants not only the best calibrated but also the best understood standard candle.
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Su, Chun; Zhou, Jianzhong; Meng, Xiankai; Huang, Shu
2016-09-26
As a new treatment process after welding, the process parameters of laser shock peening (LSP) in dynamic strain aging (DSA) temperature regimes can be precisely controlled, and the process is a non-contact one. The effects of LSP at elevated temperatures on the distribution of the surface residual stress of AA6061-T6 welded joints were investigated by using X-ray diffraction technology with the sin² ϕ method and Abaqus software. The fatigue life of the welded joints was estimated by performing tensile fatigue tests. The microstructural evolution in surface and fatigue fractures of the welded joints was presented by means of surface integrity and fracture surface testing. In the DSA temperature regime of AA6061-T6 welded joints, the residual compressive stress was distributed more stably than that of LSP at room temperature. The thermal corrosion resistance and fatigue properties of the welded joints were also improved. The experimental results and numerical analysis were in mutual agreement.
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Su, Chun; Zhou, Jianzhong; Meng, Xiankai; Huang, Shu
2016-01-01
As a new treatment process after welding, the process parameters of laser shock peening (LSP) in dynamic strain aging (DSA) temperature regimes can be precisely controlled, and the process is a non-contact one. The effects of LSP at elevated temperatures on the distribution of the surface residual stress of AA6061-T6 welded joints were investigated by using X-ray diffraction technology with the sin2ϕ method and Abaqus software. The fatigue life of the welded joints was estimated by performing tensile fatigue tests. The microstructural evolution in surface and fatigue fractures of the welded joints was presented by means of surface integrity and fracture surface testing. In the DSA temperature regime of AA6061-T6 welded joints, the residual compressive stress was distributed more stably than that of LSP at room temperature. The thermal corrosion resistance and fatigue properties of the welded joints were also improved. The experimental results and numerical analysis were in mutual agreement. PMID:28773920
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Size-related bioconcentration kinetics of hydrophobic chemicals in fish
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sijm, D.T.H.M.; Linde, A. van der
1994-12-31
Uptake and elimination of hydrophobic chemicals by fish can be regarded as passive diffusive transport processes. Diffusion coefficients, lipid/water partitioning, diffusion pathlenghts, concentration gradients and surface exchange areas are key parameters describing this bioconcentration distribution process. In the present study two of these parameters were studied: the influence of lipid/water partitioning was studied by using hydrophobic chemicals of different hydrophobicity, and the surface exchange area by using different sizes of fish. By using one species of fish it was assumed that all other parameters were kept constant. Seven age classes of fish were exposed to a series of hydrophobic, formore » five days, which was followed by a deputation phase lasting up to 6 months. Bioconcentration parameters, such as uptake and elimination rate constants, and bioconcentration factors were determined. Uptake of the hydrophobic compounds was compared to that of oxygen. Uptake and elimination rates were compared to weight and estimated (gill) exchange areas. The role of weight and its implications for extrapolations of bioconcentration parameters to other species and sizes will be discussed.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zuo, Weiguang; Liu, Ming; Fan, Tianhui; Wang, Pengtao
2018-06-01
This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Doelp, M.; Puleo, J. A.; Cowan, P.; Arford-Granholm, M.; Carey, W.
2016-12-01
Beebe Healthcare in Lewes, Delaware has collected surf zone injury (SZI) data for six summer seasons from 2010 through 2015. There were 1,791 injuries recorded within this time frame, consisting of 78 spinal injuries. In the summer of 2015, there were 276 injuries distributed amongst the five study beaches along the Delaware coast. However, beach associated hazards do not receive the same level of awareness that other surf related dangers primarily rip currents, receive. The demographics of the injured population indicated those between the ages of 11 and 15 years old suffered the greatest proportion of injuries at 18.8 %. The distribution of injury percentage among age groups in 2015 follows the trend observed over the previous five summers of data collection. Analysis of injury occurrence indicated that male water users were two times more likely to sustain injury than their female counterparts. Also, tourists were roughly six times more likely to sustain injury than locals. In 2015, 6 or more injuries occurred for 16 % of the days sampled, whereas more than 2 injuries occurred for 63 % of the sample days. The daily fluctuation of injury numbers motivated the collection of data relating to environmental parameters that may influence the likelihood of injury on a particular day. For example, elevation data were measured at each beach during the summers of 2014 and 2015 in order to quantify beach slope. Other environmental parameters that were monitored include, but are not limited to, grain size, wave height, wave period, wave direction, and wind speed. Prior work on the data set between the years 2010 and 2014 determined that no single parameter was highly correlated to injury rate. Due to the interrelated nature of the parameters, higher order statistics are necessary to effectively assess SZI cause and likelihood of occurrence on a particular day. The use of Bayes Theorem in the construction of a network using Netica software (Norsys) allows for the connection of these related parameters in assessing SZI. Data from the 2015 summer season and results from the probabilistic approach will be presented.
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Effects of aging and text-stimulus quality on the word-frequency effect during Chinese reading.
Wang, Jingxin; Li, Lin; Li, Sha; Xie, Fang; Liversedge, Simon P; Paterson, Kevin B
2018-06-01
Age-related reading difficulty is well established for alphabetic languages. Compared to young adults (18-30 years), older adults (65+ years) read more slowly, make more and longer fixations, make more regressions, and produce larger word-frequency effects. However, whether similar effects are observed for nonalphabetic languages like Chinese remains to be determined. In particular, recent research has suggested Chinese readers experience age-related reading difficulty but do not produce age differences in the word-frequency effect. This might represent an important qualitative difference in aging effects, so we investigated this further by presenting young and older adult Chinese readers with sentences that included high- or low-frequency target words. Additionally, to test theories that suggest reductions in text-stimulus quality differentially affect lexical processing by adult age groups, we presented either the target words (Experiment 1) or all characters in sentences (Experiment 2) normally or with stimulus quality reduced. Analyses based on mean eye-movement parameters and distributional analyses of fixation times for target words showed typical age-related reading difficulty. We also observed age differences in the word-frequency effect, predominantly in the tails of fixation-time distributions, consistent with an aging effect on the processing of high- and low-frequency words. Reducing stimulus quality disrupted eye movements more for the older readers, but the influence of stimulus quality on the word-frequency effect did not differ across age groups. This suggests Chinese older readers' lexical processing is resilient to reductions in stimulus quality, perhaps due to greater experience recognizing words from impoverished visual input. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
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Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate
Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less
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Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers
Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate; ...
2016-04-20
Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less
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Greenwood, J. Arthur; Landwehr, J. Maciunas; Matalas, N.C.; Wallis, J.R.
1979-01-01
Distributions whose inverse forms are explicitly defined, such as Tukey's lambda, may present problems in deriving their parameters by more conventional means. Probability weighted moments are introduced and shown to be potentially useful in expressing the parameters of these distributions.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Holland, Frederic A., Jr.
2004-01-01
Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).
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Distributed activation energy model parameters of some Turkish coals
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gunes, M.; Gunes, S.K.
2008-07-01
A multi-reaction model based on distributed activation energy has been applied to some Turkish coals. The kinetic parameters of distributed activation energy model were calculated via computer program developed for this purpose. It was observed that the values of mean of activation energy distribution vary between 218 and 248 kJ/mol, and the values of standard deviation of activation energy distribution vary between 32 and 70 kJ/mol. The correlations between kinetic parameters of the distributed activation energy model and certain properties of coal have been investigated.
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Information system of forest growth and productivity by site quality type and elements of forest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khlyustov, V.
2012-04-01
Information system of forest growth and productivity by site quality type and elements of forest V.K. Khlustov Head of the Forestry Department of Russian State Agrarian University named after K.A.Timiryazev doctor of agricultural sciences, professor The efficiency of forest management can be improved substantially by development and introduction of principally new models of forest growth and productivity dynamics based on regionalized site specific parameters. Therefore an innovative information system was developed. It describes the current state and gives a forecast for forest stand parameters: growth, structure, commercial and biological productivity depend on type of site quality. In contrast to existing yield tables, the new system has environmental basis: site quality type. The information system contains set of multivariate statistical models and can work at the level of individual trees or at the stand level. The system provides a graphical visualization, as well as export of the emulation results. The System is able to calculate detailed description of any forest stand based on five initial indicators: site quality type, site index, stocking, composition, and tree age by elements of the forest. The results of the model run are following parameters: average diameter and height, top height, number of trees, basal area, growing stock (total, commercial with distribution by size, firewood and residuals), live biomass (stem, bark, branches, foliage). The system also provides the distribution of mentioned above forest stand parameters by tree diameter classes. To predict the future forest stand dynamics the system require in addition the time slot only. Full set of forest parameters mention above will be provided by the System. The most conservative initial parameters (site quality type and site index) can be kept in the form of geo referenced polygons. In this case the system would need only 3 dynamic initial parameters (stocking, composition and age) to simulate forest parameters and their dynamics. The system can substitute traditional processing of forest inventory field data and provide users with detailed information on the current state of forest and give a prediction. Implementation of the proposed system in combination with high resolution remote sensing is able to increase significantly the quality of forest inventory and at the same time reduce the costs. The system is a contribution to site oriented forest management. The System is registered in the Russian State Register of Computer Programs 12.07.2011, No 2011615418.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi
2016-02-01
In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vidovič, Luka; Milanič, Matija; Majaron, Boris
2015-07-01
We combine pulsed photothermal radiometry (PPTR) depth profiling with diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) measurements for a comprehensive analysis of bruise evolution in vivo. While PPTR enables extraction of detailed depth distribution and concentration profiles of selected absorbers (e.g. melanin, hemoglobin), DRS provides information in a wide range of visible wavelengths and thus offers an additional insight into dynamics of the hemoglobin degradation products. Combining the two approaches enables us to quantitatively characterize bruise evolution dynamics. Our results indicate temporal variations of the bruise evolution parameters in the course of bruise self-healing process. The obtained parameter values and trends represent a basis for a future development of an objective technique for bruise age determination.
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A ternary age-mixing model to explain contaminant occurrence in a deep supply well
Jurgens, Bryant; Bexfield, Laura M.; Eberts, Sandra
2014-01-01
The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post- 1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of 14C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions.
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A Ternary Age-Mixing Model to Explain Contaminant Occurrence in a Deep Supply Well
Jurgens, Bryant C; Bexfield, Laura M; Eberts, Sandra M
2014-01-01
The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post-1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of 14C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions. PMID:24597520
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Modified stochastic fragmentation of an interval as an ageing process
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fortin, Jean-Yves
2018-02-01
We study a stochastic model based on modified fragmentation of a finite interval. The mechanism consists of cutting the interval at a random location and substituting a unique fragment on the right of the cut to regenerate and preserve the interval length. This leads to a set of segments of random sizes, with the accumulation of small fragments near the origin. This model is an example of record dynamics, with the presence of ‘quakes’ and slow dynamics. The fragment size distribution is a universal inverse power law with logarithmic corrections. The exact distribution for the fragment number as function of time is simply related to the unsigned Stirling numbers of the first kind. Two-time correlation functions are defined, and computed exactly. They satisfy scaling relations, and exhibit aging phenomena. In particular, the probability that the same number of fragments is found at two different times t>s is asymptotically equal to [4πlog(s)]-1/2 when s\\gg 1 and the ratio t/s is fixed, in agreement with the numerical simulations. The same process with a reset impedes the aging phenomenon-beyond a typical time scale defined by the reset parameter.
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Parameter Heterogeneity In Breast Cancer Cost Regressions – Evidence From Five European Countries
Banks, Helen; Campbell, Harry; Douglas, Anne; Fletcher, Eilidh; McCallum, Alison; Moger, Tron Anders; Peltola, Mikko; Sveréus, Sofia; Wild, Sarah; Williams, Linda J.; Forbes, John
2015-01-01
Abstract We investigate parameter heterogeneity in breast cancer 1‐year cumulative hospital costs across five European countries as part of the EuroHOPE project. The paper aims to explore whether conditional mean effects provide a suitable representation of the national variation in hospital costs. A cohort of patients with a primary diagnosis of invasive breast cancer (ICD‐9 codes 174 and ICD‐10 C50 codes) is derived using routinely collected individual breast cancer data from Finland, the metropolitan area of Turin (Italy), Norway, Scotland and Sweden. Conditional mean effects are estimated by ordinary least squares for each country, and quantile regressions are used to explore heterogeneity across the conditional quantile distribution. Point estimates based on conditional mean effects provide a good approximation of treatment response for some key demographic and diagnostic specific variables (e.g. age and ICD‐10 diagnosis) across the conditional quantile distribution. For many policy variables of interest, however, there is considerable evidence of parameter heterogeneity that is concealed if decisions are based solely on conditional mean results. The use of quantile regression methods reinforce the need to consider beyond an average effect given the greater recognition that breast cancer is a complex disease reflecting patient heterogeneity. © 2015 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26633866
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Bayesian Parameter Inference and Model Selection by Population Annealing in Systems Biology
Murakami, Yohei
2014-01-01
Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named “posterior parameter ensemble”. We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor. PMID:25089832
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L-moments and TL-moments of the generalized lambda distribution
Asquith, W.H.
2007-01-01
The 4-parameter generalized lambda distribution (GLD) is a flexible distribution capable of mimicking the shapes of many distributions and data samples including those with heavy tails. The method of L-moments and the recently developed method of trimmed L-moments (TL-moments) are attractive techniques for parameter estimation for heavy-tailed distributions for which the L- and TL-moments have been defined. Analytical solutions for the first five L- and TL-moments in terms of GLD parameters are derived. Unfortunately, numerical methods are needed to compute the parameters from the L- or TL-moments. Algorithms are suggested for parameter estimation. Application of the GLD using both L- and TL-moment parameter estimates from example data is demonstrated, and comparison of the L-moment fit of the 4-parameter kappa distribution is made. A small simulation study of the 98th percentile (far-right tail) is conducted for a heavy-tail GLD with high-outlier contamination. The simulations show, with respect to estimation of the 98th-percent quantile, that TL-moments are less biased (more robost) in the presence of high-outlier contamination. However, the robustness comes at the expense of considerably more sampling variability. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Photon statistics of a two-mode squeezed vacuum
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schrade, Guenter; Akulin, V. M.; Schleich, W. P.; Manko, Vladimir I.
1994-01-01
We investigate the general case of the photon distribution of a two-mode squeezed vacuum and show that the distribution of photons among the two modes depends on four parameters: two squeezing parameters, the relative phase between the two oscillators and their spatial orientation. The distribution of the total number of photons depends only on the two squeezing parameters. We derive analytical expressions and present pictures for both distributions.
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Palaeolake isolation and biogeographical process of freshwater fishes in the Yellow River.
Kang, Bin; Huang, Xiaoxia; Wu, Yunfei
2017-01-01
The Yellow River, one of the very few in the Earth, originated from many dispersive palaeolakes. Taking this unique advantage, we examined the roles of palaeolake isolation vs. geological processes vs. climate in determining current fish biogeographic pattern. We reviewed available data on fish species and their geographical distribution in the river, as well as palaeolake development, geological and climatic parameters. The 138 fish species recorded in the river could be divided into 8 biogeographic regions, corresponding to the distribution of palaeolakes and respective endemic species. Through variation partitioning analysis, palaeolake isolation was the most influential factor explaining 43.6% of the total variance on the current fish distribution. The Quaternary Ice Age produced a transitional distribution for fishes from the glacier to warm water, especially for the subfamily Schizothoracinae, which showed various degrees of specialisation along altitudes. We suggested that fish biogeography in the Yellow river was basically shaped by palaeolake isolation, and further carved under serials of geologic events and contemporary climate change.
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Palaeolake isolation and biogeographical process of freshwater fishes in the Yellow River
Wu, Yunfei
2017-01-01
The Yellow River, one of the very few in the Earth, originated from many dispersive palaeolakes. Taking this unique advantage, we examined the roles of palaeolake isolation vs. geological processes vs. climate in determining current fish biogeographic pattern. We reviewed available data on fish species and their geographical distribution in the river, as well as palaeolake development, geological and climatic parameters. The 138 fish species recorded in the river could be divided into 8 biogeographic regions, corresponding to the distribution of palaeolakes and respective endemic species. Through variation partitioning analysis, palaeolake isolation was the most influential factor explaining 43.6% of the total variance on the current fish distribution. The Quaternary Ice Age produced a transitional distribution for fishes from the glacier to warm water, especially for the subfamily Schizothoracinae, which showed various degrees of specialisation along altitudes. We suggested that fish biogeography in the Yellow river was basically shaped by palaeolake isolation, and further carved under serials of geologic events and contemporary climate change. PMID:28406965
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Quan; Zhong, Shan; Cui, Jie; Feng, Xia-Ting; Song, Leibo
2016-12-01
We investigated the statistical characteristics and probability distribution of the mechanical parameters of natural rock using triaxial compression tests. Twenty cores of Jinping marble were tested under each different levels of confining stress (i.e., 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 MPa). From these full stress-strain data, we summarized the numerical characteristics and determined the probability distribution form of several important mechanical parameters, including deformational parameters, characteristic strength, characteristic strains, and failure angle. The statistical proofs relating to the mechanical parameters of rock presented new information about the marble's probabilistic distribution characteristics. The normal and log-normal distributions were appropriate for describing random strengths of rock; the coefficients of variation of the peak strengths had no relationship to the confining stress; the only acceptable random distribution for both Young's elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio was the log-normal function; and the cohesive strength had a different probability distribution pattern than the frictional angle. The triaxial tests and statistical analysis also provided experimental evidence for deciding the minimum reliable number of experimental sample and for picking appropriate parameter distributions to use in reliability calculations for rock engineering.
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Aydin Sunbul, Esra; Sunbul, Murat; Gulec, Huseyin
Depression is an independent risk factor in cardiovascular diseases. Changes in the cardiac autonomic functions and pro-inflammatory processes are potential biological factors. Endothelial dysfunction plays an important role in the etiopathogenesis of atherosclerosis. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of major depression on heart rate variability and endothelial dysfunction in patients with stable CAD. The study group included 65 CAD patients with a diagnosis of major depression and 54 CAD patients without major depression. All study population underwent transthoracic echocardiography, measurement of flow mediated dilatation (FMD) and 24-h holter recording for heart rate variability (HRV). Blood samples were drawn to determine the inflammatory parameters. Severity of depressive episode was assessed by Montgomery-Asberg Depression Scale (MADRS). The distribution of age and sex was similar in the patient and control groups (P=0.715, 0.354, respectively). There was no significant difference in medications used between the groups. Echocardiographic parameters were similar between the groups. Inflammatory parameters were also similar between the groups. HRV parameters were significantly lower in the patient group than controls. The absolute FMD value and percentage FMD were significantly lower in the patient group than controls (P<0.001). The MADRS score correlated with pNN50 in both groups (P<0.05), and with FMD in the control group (P<0.001), even after adjusting for age and gender (P<0.001). MADRS score was an independent predictor of pNN50 level, percentage and absolute FMD values regardless of age and gender. Clinician should pay more attention for evaluation of depressive patients with CAD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Schäfer, Valentin Sebastian; Weiß, Katharina; Krause, Andreas; Schmidt, Wolfgang Andreas
2018-07-01
To examine disease activity parameters in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) experiencing flare, infection, both, or neither condition, focusing on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). This study is a retrospective analysis of 371 consecutive inpatient SLE cases from 2006 to 2015. Cases were classified as flare (n = 147), infection (n = 48), both (n = 23), or neither (n = 135). ESR levels were correlated to C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, anti-dsDNA antibodies, complement C3 reduction, serositis, and erythrocyturia with proteinuria (Pearson's correlation). ESR levels were related to an age- and gender-adapted cut-off value (ESRp). We analyzed mean values of age, ESR, ESRp, CRP, ferritin and distribution of anti-dsDNA antibodies, C3 reduction, serositis, and erythrocyturia with proteinuria. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated via receiver operating characteristic or two-by-two table. Association of parameters with disease activity and infection was tested via two-sided chi square test. ESR correlated moderately with CRP in cases with flare and/or infection (r = 0.505-0.586). While ESR and CRP were normal in remission, mean values overlapped in cases with flare, infection, or both. ESRp was higher in flare than in infection (p = 0.048). ESR lost association to activity in infected cases, CRP to infection in flaring cases. ESRp, serositis, and anti-dsDNA antibodies were related to disease activity regardless of infections. Anti-dsDNA antibodies were most sensitive for detecting flares (74%), while serositis, proteinuria with erythrocyturia, anti-dsDNA antibodies, C3 reduction, and ESRp values ≥ 2 were most specific. ESR levels were raised by flares, infections, and age; adapting them to age and gender increased their diagnostic value. Obtaining several parameters remains necessary to differentiate flare from infection.
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Kinetic and temporospatial gait parameters in a heterogeneous group of dogs.
Kano, Washington T; Rahal, Sheila C; Agostinho, Felipe S; Mesquita, Luciane R; Santos, Rogerio R; Monteiro, Frederico O B; Castilho, Maira S; Melchert, Alessandra
2016-01-04
A prime concern of the gait analysis in a heterogeneous group of dogs is the potential influence of factors such as individual body size, body mass, type of gait, and velocity. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate in a heterogeneous group of dogs a possible correlation of the stride frequency with kinetic and temporospatial variables, as well as the percentage of body weight distribution (%BWD), and compare symmetry index (SI) between trotting and walking dogs. Twenty-nine clinically healthy dogs moving in a controlled velocity were used. The dogs were organized into two groups based on duty factor. Group 1 comprised 15 walking dogs, aged from 9 months to 8 years and weighing about 22.3 kg. Group 2 had 14 trotting dogs, aged from 1 to 6 years and weighing about 6.5 kg. The kinetic data and temporospatial parameters were obtained using a pressure-sensing walkway. The velocity was 0.9-1.1 m/s. The peak vertical force (PVF), vertical impulse (VI), gait cycle time, stance time, swing time, stride length, and percentages of body weight distribution among the four limbs were determined. For each variable, the SIs were calculated. Pearson's coefficient was used to evaluate correlation between stride frequency and other variables, initially in each group and after including all animals. Except for the %BWD (approximately 60% for the forelimbs and 40% for the hind limbs), all other parameters differed between groups. Considering each Group individually a strong correlation was observed for most of the temporospatial parameters, but no significant correlation occurred between stride frequency and PVF, and stride frequency and %BWD. However, including all dogs a strong correlation was observed in all temporospatial parameters, and moderate correlation between stride frequency and VI, and weak correlation between stride frequency and PVF. There was no correlation between stride frequency and %BWD. Groups 1 and 2 did not differ statistically in SIs. In a heterogeneous group of dogs conducted at a controlled velocity, the %BWD and most of SIs presented low variability. However, %BWD seems to be the most accurate, since factors such as the magnitude of the variables may influence the SIs inducing wrong interpretation. Based on results obtained from correlations, the standardization of stride frequency could be an alternative to minimize the variability of temporospatial parameters.
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Numerical details and SAS programs for parameter recovery of the SB distribution
Bernard R. Parresol; Teresa Fidalgo Fonseca; Carlos Pacheco Marques
2010-01-01
The four-parameter SB distribution has seen widespread use in growth-and-yield modeling because it covers a broad spectrum of shapes, fitting both positively and negatively skewed data and bimodal configurations. Two recent parameter recovery schemes, an approach whereby characteristics of a statistical distribution are equated with attributes of...
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Merchan, L. Marcela; Hassan, Hazem E.; Terrin, Michael L.; Waites, Ken B.; Kaufman, David A.; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Donohue, Pamela; Dulkerian, Susan J.; Schelonka, Robert; Magder, Laurence S.; Shukla, Sagar; Eddington, Natalie D.
2014-01-01
The study objectives were to refine the population pharmacokinetics (PK) model, determine microbial clearance, and assess short-term pulmonary outcomes of multiple-dose azithromycin treatment in preterm infants at risk for Ureaplasma respiratory colonization. Fifteen subjects (7 of whom were Ureaplasma positive) received intravenous azithromycin at 20 mg/kg of body weight every 24 h for 3 doses. Azithromycin concentrations were determined in plasma samples obtained up to 168 h post-first dose by using a validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. Respiratory samples were obtained predose and at three time points post-last dose for Ureaplasma culture, PCR, antibiotic susceptibility testing, and cytokine concentration determinations. Pharmacokinetic data from these 15 subjects as well as 25 additional subjects (who received either a single 10-mg/kg dose [n = 12] or a single 20-mg/kg dose [n = 13]) were analyzed by using a nonlinear mixed-effect population modeling (NONMEM) approach. Pulmonary outcomes were assessed at 36 weeks post-menstrual age and 6 months adjusted age. A 2-compartment model with all PK parameters allometrically scaled on body weight best described the azithromycin pharmacokinetics in preterm neonates. The population pharmacokinetics parameter estimates for clearance, central volume of distribution, intercompartmental clearance, and peripheral volume of distribution were 0.15 liters/h · kg0.75, 1.88 liters · kg, 1.79 liters/h · kg0.75, and 13 liters · kg, respectively. The estimated area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h (AUC24)/MIC90 value was ∼4 h. All posttreatment cultures were negative, and there were no drug-related adverse events. One Ureaplasma-positive infant died at 4 months of age, but no survivors were hospitalized for respiratory etiologies during the first 6 months (adjusted age). Thus, a 3-day course of 20 mg/kg/day intravenous azithromycin shows preliminary efficacy in eradicating Ureaplasma spp. from the preterm respiratory tract. PMID:25385115
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sakamoto, Kimiko M.; Laing, James R.; Stevens, Robin G.; Jaffe, Daniel A.; Pierce, Jeffrey R.
2016-06-01
Biomass-burning aerosols have a significant effect on global and regional aerosol climate forcings. To model the magnitude of these effects accurately requires knowledge of the size distribution of the emitted and evolving aerosol particles. Current biomass-burning inventories do not include size distributions, and global and regional models generally assume a fixed size distribution from all biomass-burning emissions. However, biomass-burning size distributions evolve in the plume due to coagulation and net organic aerosol (OA) evaporation or formation, and the plume processes occur on spacial scales smaller than global/regional-model grid boxes. The extent of this size-distribution evolution is dependent on a variety of factors relating to the emission source and atmospheric conditions. Therefore, accurately accounting for biomass-burning aerosol size in global models requires an effective aerosol size distribution that accounts for this sub-grid evolution and can be derived from available emission-inventory and meteorological parameters. In this paper, we perform a detailed investigation of the effects of coagulation on the aerosol size distribution in biomass-burning plumes. We compare the effect of coagulation to that of OA evaporation and formation. We develop coagulation-only parameterizations for effective biomass-burning size distributions using the SAM-TOMAS large-eddy simulation plume model. For the most-sophisticated parameterization, we use the Gaussian Emulation Machine for Sensitivity Analysis (GEM-SA) to build a parameterization of the aged size distribution based on the SAM-TOMAS output and seven inputs: emission median dry diameter, emission distribution modal width, mass emissions flux, fire area, mean boundary-layer wind speed, plume mixing depth, and time/distance since emission. This parameterization was tested against an independent set of SAM-TOMAS simulations and yields R2 values of 0.83 and 0.89 for Dpm and modal width, respectively. The size distribution is particularly sensitive to the mass emissions flux, fire area, wind speed, and time, and we provide simplified fits of the aged size distribution to just these input variables. The simplified fits were tested against 11 aged biomass-burning size distributions observed at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory in August 2015. The simple fits captured over half of the variability in observed Dpm and modal width even though the freshly emitted Dpm and modal widths were unknown. These fits may be used in global and regional aerosol models. Finally, we show that coagulation generally leads to greater changes in the particle size distribution than OA evaporation/formation does, using estimates of OA production/loss from the literature.
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Frequency distributions and correlations of solar X-ray flare parameters
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Crosby, Norma B.; Aschwanden, Markus J.; Dennis, Brian R.
1993-01-01
Frequency distributions of flare parameters are determined from over 12,000 solar flares. The flare duration, the peak counting rate, the peak hard X-ray flux, the total energy in electrons, and the peak energy flux in electrons are among the parameters studied. Linear regression fits, as well as the slopes of the frequency distributions, are used to determine the correlations between these parameters. The relationship between the variations of the frequency distributions and the solar activity cycle is also investigated. Theoretical models for the frequency distribution of flare parameters are dependent on the probability of flaring and the temporal evolution of the flare energy build-up. The results of this study are consistent with stochastic flaring and exponential energy build-up. The average build-up time constant is found to be 0.5 times the mean time between flares.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Zhou, F.; Bohler, D.; Ding, Y.
2015-12-07
Photocathode RF gun has been widely used for generation of high-brightness electron beams for many different applications. We found that the drive laser distributions in such RF guns play important roles in minimizing the electron beam emittance. Characterizing the laser distributions with measurable parameters and optimizing beam emittance versus the laser distribution parameters in both spatial and temporal directions are highly desired for high-brightness electron beam operation. In this paper, we report systematic measurements and simulations of emittance dependence on the measurable parameters represented for spatial and temporal laser distributions at the photocathode RF gun systems of Linac Coherent Lightmore » Source. The tolerable parameter ranges for photocathode drive laser distributions in both directions are presented for ultra-low emittance beam operations.« less
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Lin, H-Y; Gau, S S-F; Huang-Gu, S L; Shang, C-Y; Wu, Y-H; Tseng, W-Y I
2014-06-01
Increased intra-individual variability (IIV) in reaction time (RT) across various tasks is one ubiquitous neuropsychological finding in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, neurobiological underpinnings of IIV in individuals with ADHD have not yet been fully delineated. The ex-Gaussian distribution has been proved to capture IIV in RT. The authors explored the three parameters [μ (mu), σ (sigma), τ (tau)] of an ex-Gaussian RT distribution derived from the Conners' continuous performance test (CCPT) and their correlations with the microstructural integrity of the frontostriatal-caudate tracts and the cingulum bundles. We assessed 28 youths with ADHD (8-17 years; 25 males) and 28 age-, sex-, IQ- and handedness-matched typically developing (TD) youths using the CCPT, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, 3rd edition and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Microstructural integrity, indexed by generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA), was measured by diffusion spectrum imaging tractrography on a 3-T MRI system. Youths with ADHD had larger σ (s.d. of Gaussian distribution) and τ (mean of exponential distribution) and reduced GFA in four bilateral frontostriatal tracts. With increased inter-stimulus intervals of CCPT, the magnitude of greater τ in ADHD than TD increased. In ADHD youths, the cingulum bundles and frontostriatal integrity were associated with three ex-Gaussian parameters and with μ (mean of Gaussian distribution) and τ, respectively; while only frontostriatal GFA was associated with μ and τ in TD youths. Our findings suggest the crucial role of the integrity of the cingulum bundles in accounting for IIV in ADHD. Involvement of different brain systems in mediating IIV may relate to a distinctive pathophysiological processing and/or adaptive compensatory mechanism.
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VizieR Online Data Catalog: 2nd and 3d parameters of HB of globular clusters (Gratton+, 2010)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gratton, R. G.; Carretta, E.; Bragaglia, A.; Lucatello, S.; S'orazii, V.
2010-05-01
The second parameter (the first being metallicity) defining the distribution of stars on the horizontal branch (HB) of globular clusters (GCs) has long been one of the major open issues in our understanding of the evolution of normal stars. Large photometric and spectroscopic databases are now available: they include large and homogeneous sets of colour-magnitude diagrams, cluster ages, and homogeneous data about chemical compositions from our FLAMES survey. We use these databases to re-examine this issue. Methods. We use the photometric data to derive median and extreme (i.e., the values including 90% of the distribution) colours and magnitudes of stars along the HB for about a hundred GCs. We transform these into median and extreme masses of stars on the HB, using the models developed by the Pisa group, and taking into account evolutionary effects. We compare these masses with those expected at the tip of the red giant branch (RGB) to derive the total mass lost by the stars. (11 data files).
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Serious games for elderly continuous monitoring.
Lemus-Zúñiga, Lenin-G; Navarro-Pardo, Esperanza; Moret-Tatay, Carmen; Pocinho, Ricardo
2015-01-01
Information technology (IT) and serious games allow older population to remain independent for longer. Hence, when designing technology for this population, developmental changes, such as attention and/or perception, should be considered. For instance, a crucial developmental change has been related to cognitive speed in terms of reaction time (RT). However, this variable presents a skewed distribution that difficult data analysis. An alternative strategy is to characterize the data to an ex-Gaussian function. Furthermore, this procedure provides different parameters that have been related to underlying cognitive processes in the literature. Another issue to be considered is the optimal data recording, storing and processing. For that purpose mobile devices (smart phones and tablets) are a good option for targeting serious games where valuable information can be stored (time spent in the application, reaction time, frequency of use, and a long etcetera). The data stored inside the smartphones and tablets can be sent to a central computer (cloud storage) in order to store the data collected to not only fill the distribution of reaction times to mathematical functions, but also to estimate parameters which may reflect cognitive processes underlying language, aging, and decisional process.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Nossent, Jiri; Ghysels, Gert; Huysmans, Marijke
2017-04-01
Transient numerical groundwater flow models have been used to understand and forecast groundwater flow systems under anthropogenic and climatic effects, but the reliability of the predictions is strongly influenced by different sources of uncertainty. Hence, researchers in hydrological sciences are developing and applying methods for uncertainty quantification. Nevertheless, spatially distributed flow models pose significant challenges for parameter and spatially distributed input estimation and uncertainty quantification. In this study, we present a general and flexible approach for input and parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of groundwater models. The proposed approach combines a fully distributed groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. To avoid over-parameterization, the uncertainty of the spatially distributed model input has been represented by multipliers. The posterior distributions of these multipliers and the regular model parameters were estimated using DREAM. The proposed methodology has been applied in an overexploited aquifer in Bangladesh where groundwater pumping and recharge data are highly uncertain. The results confirm that input uncertainty does have a considerable effect on the model predictions and parameter distributions. Additionally, our approach also provides a new way to optimize the spatially distributed recharge and pumping data along with the parameter values under uncertain input conditions. It can be concluded from our approach that considering model input uncertainty along with parameter uncertainty is important for obtaining realistic model predictions and a correct estimation of the uncertainty bounds.
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Oxide vapor distribution from a high-frequency sweep e-beam system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chow, R.; Tassano, P. L.; Tsujimoto, N.
1995-03-01
Oxide vapor distributions have been determined as a function of operating parameters of a high frequency sweep e-beam source combined with a programmable sweep controller. We will show which parameters are significant, the parameters that yield the broadest oxide deposition distribution, and the procedure used to arrive at these conclusions. A design-of-experimental strategy was used with five operating parameters: evaporation rate, sweep speed, sweep pattern (pre-programmed), phase speed (azimuthal rotation of the pattern), profile (dwell time as a function of radial position). A design was chosen that would show which of the parameters and parameter pairs have a statistically significant effect on the vapor distribution. Witness flats were placed symmetrically across a 25 inches diameter platen. The stationary platen was centered 24 inches above the e-gun crucible. An oxide material was evaporated under 27 different conditions. Thickness measurements were made with a stylus profilometer. The information will enable users of the high frequency e-gun systems to optimally locate the source in a vacuum system and understand which parameters have a major effect on the vapor distribution.
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A Comparative Study of Distribution System Parameter Estimation Methods
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sun, Yannan; Williams, Tess L.; Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup
2016-07-17
In this paper, we compare two parameter estimation methods for distribution systems: residual sensitivity analysis and state-vector augmentation with a Kalman filter. These two methods were originally proposed for transmission systems, and are still the most commonly used methods for parameter estimation. Distribution systems have much lower measurement redundancy than transmission systems. Therefore, estimating parameters is much more difficult. To increase the robustness of parameter estimation, the two methods are applied with combined measurement snapshots (measurement sets taken at different points in time), so that the redundancy for computing the parameter values is increased. The advantages and disadvantages of bothmore » methods are discussed. The results of this paper show that state-vector augmentation is a better approach for parameter estimation in distribution systems. Simulation studies are done on a modified version of IEEE 13-Node Test Feeder with varying levels of measurement noise and non-zero error in the other system model parameters.« less
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Küme, Tuncay; Acar, Sezer; Tuhan, Hale; Çatlı, Gönül; Anık, Ahmet; Gürsoy Çalan, Özlem; Böber, Ece; Abacı, Ayhan
2017-03-01
To investigate the relationship between zonulin levels and clinical and laboratory parameters of childhood obesity. The study included obese children with a body mass index (BMI) >95 th percentile and healthy children who were of similar age and gender distribution. Clinical (BMI, waist circumferences, mid-arm circumference, triceps skinfold, percentage of body fat, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure) and biochemical (glucose, insulin, lipid levels, thyroid function tests, cortisol, zonulin and leptin levels) parameters were measured. A total of 43 obese subjects (23 males, mean age: 11.1±3.1 years) and 37 healthy subjects (18 males, mean age: 11.5±3.5 years) were included in this study. Obese children had significantly higher insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, triglyceride, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), zonulin and leptin levels than healthy children (p<0.05), while glucose levels were not different (p>0.05). Comparison of the obese children with and without insulin resistance showed no statistically significant differences for zonulin levels (p>0.05). Zonulin levels were found to negatively correlate with HDL-C and positively correlate with leptin levels, after adjusting for age and BMI. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study investigating the relationship between circulating zonulin level (as a marker of intestinal permeability) and insulin resistance and leptin (as markers of metabolic disturbances associated with obesity) in childhood obesity. The results showed that zonulin was significantly higher in obese children when compared to healthy children, a finding indicating a potential role of zonulin in the etiopathogenesis of obesity and related disturbances.
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The Fundamental Stellar Parameters of FGK Stars in the SEEDS Survey Norman, OK 73071, USA
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rich, Evan A.; Wisniewski, John P.; McElwain, Michael W.; Hashimoto, Jun; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Okamoto, Yoshiko K.; Abe, Lyu; Akiyama, Eiji; Brandner, Wolfgang;
2017-01-01
Large exoplanet surveys have successfully detected thousands of exoplanets to-date. Utilizing these detections and non-detections to constrain our understanding of the formation and evolution of planetary systems also requires a detailed understanding of the basic properties of their host stars. We have determined the basic stellar properties of F, K and G stars in the Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru (SEEDS) survey from Echelle spectra taken at the Apache Point Observatory's 3.5m telescope. Using ROBOSPECT to extract line equivalent widths and Temperature Gravity microtrubulent Velocity ITerations to calculate the fundamental parameters, we have computed T(sub eff), log(g), v(sub t), [Fe/H], chromospheric activity and the age for our sample. Our methodology was calibrated against previously published results for a portion of our sample. The distribution of [Fe/H] in our sample is consistent with that typical of the Solar neighbourhood. Additionally, we find the ages of most of our sample are less than 500 Myr, but note that we cannot determine robust ages from significantly older stars via chromospheric activity age indicators. The future meta-analysis of the frequency of wide stellar and sub-stellar companions imaged via the SEEDS survey will utilize our results to constrain the occurrence of detected comoving companions with the properties of their host stars.
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Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia
2016-01-01
During peritoneal dialysis (PD), the peritoneal membrane undergoes ageing processes that affect its function. Here we analyzed associations of patient age and dialysis vintage with parameters of peritoneal transport of fluid and solutes, directly measured and estimated based on the pore model, for individual patients. Thirty-three patients (15 females; age 60 (21-87) years; median time on PD 19 (3-100) months) underwent sequential peritoneal equilibration test. Dialysis vintage and patient age did not correlate. Estimation of parameters of the two-pore model of peritoneal transport was performed. The estimated fluid transport parameters, including hydraulic permeability (LpS), fraction of ultrasmall pores (α u), osmotic conductance for glucose (OCG), and peritoneal absorption, were generally independent of solute transport parameters (diffusive mass transport parameters). Fluid transport parameters correlated whereas transport parameters for small solutes and proteins did not correlate with dialysis vintage and patient age. Although LpS and OCG were lower for older patients and those with long dialysis vintage, αu was higher. Thus, fluid transport parameters--rather than solute transport parameters--are linked to dialysis vintage and patient age and should therefore be included when monitoring processes linked to ageing of the peritoneal membrane.
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Ciecior, Willy; Röhlig, Klaus-Jürgen; Kirchner, Gerald
2018-10-01
In the present paper, deterministic as well as first- and second-order probabilistic biosphere modeling approaches are compared. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the influence of the probability distribution function shape (empirical distribution functions and fitted lognormal probability functions) representing the aleatory uncertainty (also called variability) of a radioecological model parameter as well as the role of interacting parameters are studied. Differences in the shape of the output distributions for the biosphere dose conversion factor from first-order Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis using empirical and fitted lognormal distribution functions for input parameters suggest that a lognormal approximation is possibly not always an adequate representation of the aleatory uncertainty of a radioecological parameter. Concerning the comparison of the impact of aleatory and epistemic parameter uncertainty on the biosphere dose conversion factor, the latter here is described using uncertain moments (mean, variance) while the distribution itself represents the aleatory uncertainty of the parameter. From the results obtained, the solution space of second-order Monte Carlo simulation is much larger than that from first-order Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, the influence of epistemic uncertainty of a radioecological parameter on the output result is much larger than that one caused by its aleatory uncertainty. Parameter interactions are only of significant influence in the upper percentiles of the distribution of results as well as only in the region of the upper percentiles of the model parameters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The evolution of Zipf's law indicative of city development
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Yanguang
2016-02-01
Zipf's law of city-size distributions can be expressed by three types of mathematical models: one-parameter form, two-parameter form, and three-parameter form. The one-parameter and one of the two-parameter models are familiar to urban scientists. However, the three-parameter model and another type of two-parameter model have not attracted attention. This paper is devoted to exploring the conditions and scopes of application of these Zipf models. By mathematical reasoning and empirical analysis, new discoveries are made as follows. First, if the size distribution of cities in a geographical region cannot be described with the one- or two-parameter model, maybe it can be characterized by the three-parameter model with a scaling factor and a scale-translational factor. Second, all these Zipf models can be unified by hierarchical scaling laws based on cascade structure. Third, the patterns of city-size distributions seem to evolve from three-parameter mode to two-parameter mode, and then to one-parameter mode. Four-year census data of Chinese cities are employed to verify the three-parameter Zipf's law and the corresponding hierarchical structure of rank-size distributions. This study is revealing for people to understand the scientific laws of social systems and the property of urban development.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Horack, John M.; Koshut, Thomas M.; Mallozzi, Robert S.; Emslie, A. Gordon; Meegan, Charles A.
1996-01-01
The distance scale to cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRB's) is still uncertain by many orders of magnitude; however, one viable scenario places GRB's at cosmological distances, thereby permitting them to be used as tracers of the cosmological expansion over a significant range of redshifts zeta. Also, several recent measurements of the Hubble constant H(sub 0) appearing in the referred literature report values of 70-80 km/s /Mpc. Although there is significant debate regarding these measurements, we proceed here under the assumption that they are evidence of a large value for H(sub 0). This is done in order to investigate the additional constraints on cosmological models that can be obtained under this hypothesis when combined with the age of the universe and the brightness distribution of cosmological gamma-ray bursts. We show that the range of cosmological models that can be consistent with the GRB brightness distribution, a Hubble constant of 70-80 km/s/Mpc, and a minimum age of the universe of 13-15 Gyr is constrained significantly, largely independent of a wide range of assumptions regarding the evolutionary nature of the burst population. Low-density, Lambda greater than 0 cosmological models with deceleration parameter in the range -1 less than q(sub 0) less than 0 and density parameter sigma(sub 0) in the range approximately equals 0.10-0.25(Omega(sub 0) approximately equals 0.2-0.5) are strongly favored.
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Langevin equation with fluctuating diffusivity: A two-state model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyaguchi, Tomoshige; Akimoto, Takuma; Yamamoto, Eiji
2016-07-01
Recently, anomalous subdiffusion, aging, and scatter of the diffusion coefficient have been reported in many single-particle-tracking experiments, though the origins of these behaviors are still elusive. Here, as a model to describe such phenomena, we investigate a Langevin equation with diffusivity fluctuating between a fast and a slow state. Namely, the diffusivity follows a dichotomous stochastic process. We assume that the sojourn time distributions of these two states are given by power laws. It is shown that, for a nonequilibrium ensemble, the ensemble-averaged mean-square displacement (MSD) shows transient subdiffusion. In contrast, the time-averaged MSD shows normal diffusion, but an effective diffusion coefficient transiently shows aging behavior. The propagator is non-Gaussian for short time and converges to a Gaussian distribution in a long-time limit; this convergence to Gaussian is extremely slow for some parameter values. For equilibrium ensembles, both ensemble-averaged and time-averaged MSDs show only normal diffusion and thus we cannot detect any traces of the fluctuating diffusivity with these MSDs. Therefore, as an alternative approach to characterizing the fluctuating diffusivity, the relative standard deviation (RSD) of the time-averaged MSD is utilized and it is shown that the RSD exhibits slow relaxation as a signature of the long-time correlation in the fluctuating diffusivity. Furthermore, it is shown that the RSD is related to a non-Gaussian parameter of the propagator. To obtain these theoretical results, we develop a two-state renewal theory as an analytical tool.
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Schaefer, Carina; Cawello, Willi; Waitzinger, Josef; Elshoff, Jan-Peer
2015-04-01
Age- and sex-related differences in body composition could affect the pharmacokinetic parameters of administered drugs. The purpose of this post hoc analysis was to investigate the influences of age and sex on the pharmacokinetics of lacosamide. This post hoc analysis used pharmacokinetic data taken at steady state from (i) two phase I studies of oral lacosamide in healthy adult subjects (n = 66), and (ii) a population pharmacokinetic analysis carried out using data from two phase III studies of adjunctive oral lacosamide in adults (n = 565) with focal epilepsy taking 1-3 concomitant anti-epileptic drugs. Phase I data were stratified by age and sex as 'younger female' (aged 18-40 years), 'younger male' (aged 18-45 years) or 'elderly male/female' (aged ≥65 years), then normalized by body weight (lean body weight or fat-free mass), height or volume of distribution, and analysed using non-compartmental analysis. Population pharmacokinetic data were stratified by sex and analysed using a one-compartment model. Minor numerical differences between lacosamide exposure [the area under the concentration-time curve at steady state over the dosage interval (AUCτ,ss)] and the maximum plasma concentration at steady state (C max,ss) in subjects of different ages or sexes were noted. The differences could be explained by a scaling factor between the drug applied and the plasma concentration. Following normalization by lean body weight or volume of distribution, an analysis of relative bioavailability resulted in 90 % confidence intervals of the ratios for AUCτ,ss and C max,ss for age (elderly to younger) or sex (male to female) falling within the range accepted for equivalence (80-125 %); without normalization, the 90 % confidence intervals were outside this range. Minor numerical differences in lacosamide plasma concentrations were noted in the comparison between male and female patients (aged 16-71 years) with focal epilepsy. Simulations using different body weights demonstrated a minimal effect of body weight on lacosamide plasma concentrations in adult patients with focal epilepsy. Age and sex had no relevant effects on the rates of absorption and elimination of lacosamide in this post hoc analysis, as the minor numerical differences could be explained by the main scaling factor for body weight or volume of distribution. The pharmacokinetic profile of lacosamide was unaffected by age or sex in adults with focal epilepsy.
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Probability distribution functions for unit hydrographs with optimization using genetic algorithm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Singh, Vijay P.; Sivakumar, Bellie; H. Kashani, Mahsa; Atre, Atul Arvind; Asadi, Hakimeh
2017-05-01
A unit hydrograph (UH) of a watershed may be viewed as the unit pulse response function of a linear system. In recent years, the use of probability distribution functions (pdfs) for determining a UH has received much attention. In this study, a nonlinear optimization model is developed to transmute a UH into a pdf. The potential of six popular pdfs, namely two-parameter gamma, two-parameter Gumbel, two-parameter log-normal, two-parameter normal, three-parameter Pearson distribution, and two-parameter Weibull is tested on data from the Lighvan catchment in Iran. The probability distribution parameters are determined using the nonlinear least squares optimization method in two ways: (1) optimization by programming in Mathematica; and (2) optimization by applying genetic algorithm. The results are compared with those obtained by the traditional linear least squares method. The results show comparable capability and performance of two nonlinear methods. The gamma and Pearson distributions are the most successful models in preserving the rising and recession limbs of the unit hydographs. The log-normal distribution has a high ability in predicting both the peak flow and time to peak of the unit hydrograph. The nonlinear optimization method does not outperform the linear least squares method in determining the UH (especially for excess rainfall of one pulse), but is comparable.
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A novel technique of semi-aerobic aged refuse biofilter for leachate treatment.
Han, Zhi-Yong; Liu, Dan; Li, Qi-Bin; Li, Gui-Zhi; Yin, Zhao-Yang; Chen, Xin; Chen, Jian-Nan
2011-08-01
We developed a semi-aerobic aged refuse biofilter (SAARB) for leachate treatment and examined its advantages and disadvantages compared to previous aged refuse biofilters (ARBs). To assess its treatment capability, decontamination mechanisms and optimal performance parameters, a single-period experiment and L(9)(3(4)) orthogonal array design experiments were conducted on artificial leachate. The SAARB markedly enhanced the treatment capability and removal efficiency of organic matter and nitrogen pollutants due to the alternating aerobic-anoxic-anaerobic zones in situ. The reduction in chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen (NH(4)(+)-N) and total nitrogen (TN) exceeded 98%, 94%, and 80%, respectively. After the leachate was distributed onto the SAARB surface, the effluent velocity decreased as a logarithmic function, and there was a concomitant reduction in leachate effluent volume. Based on the capacity for removal of COD, NH(4)(+)-N, and TN, the effective height of aged refuse in a SAARB was enough to be 900mm. An excellent treatment efficiency could be achieved at 20-35°C, with a leachate distribution time of 1h once every period of 2-3 days, hydraulic loading of 11-30L/(m(3)day), and COD loading of 550-1200g/(m(3)day). This new SAARB system demonstrates superior efficacy for biofilter compared to other ARB systems, especially for nitrogen removal from leachate. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Mohandoss, Anusa Arunachalam
2016-01-01
Background: Of the various causes of suicides in India, very less number commit it for an ideological cause or due to hero worship (IHW). The prevalence and changing trends in IHW suicides are not much discussed. An attempt is made to draw attention to this subset of suicides during 2001–2014. Materials and Methods: Accessible data from the National Crime Bureau Records in open domain was employed for this study. As only whole sum numbers associated with state, age groups, and genders and years were only available parameters, descriptive statistics of rate of suicides, linear trend with age groups, gender, and geographical divisions are presented. Results: In 14 years period, 1,721,946 suicides with an average of 122,996 suicides per year were observed. In total, a sum of 2395 IHW related suicides was noted accounting an average 171 suicides per year was observed. The difference among genders and age group with respect to various parts of India is presented. Southern India and in particular, Tamil Nadu consistently had the highest IHW related suicides. Discussion: The possible causes behind this unique phenomenon, cultural ethos, and implication are presented. In addition, the implication of changing trends in terms of geographical distribution, age group distribution, and gender dynamics are presented and discussed. PMID:28031592
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Wang, Zhen Xiang; Lloyd, Ashley A; Burket, Jayme C; Gourion-Arsiquaud, Samuel; Donnelly, Eve
2016-03-01
Heterogeneity of bone tissue properties is emerging as a potential indicator of altered bone quality in pathologic tissue. The objective of this study was to compare the distributions of tissue properties in women with and without histories of fragility fractures using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) imaging. We extended a prior study that examined the relationship of the mean FTIR properties to fracture risk by analyzing in detail the widths and the tails of the distributions of FTIR properties in biopsies from fracture and non-fracture cohorts. The mineral and matrix properties of cortical and trabecular iliac crest tissue were compared in biopsies from women with a history of fragility fracture (+Fx; n=21, age: mean 54±SD 15y) and with no history of fragility fracture (-Fx; n=12, age: 57±5y). A subset of the patients included in the -Fx group were taking estrogen-plus-progestin hormone replacement therapy (HRT) (-Fx+HRT n=8, age: 58±5y) and were analyzed separately from patients with no history of HRT (-Fx-HRT n=4, age: 56±7y). When the FTIR parameter mean values were examined by treatment group, the trabecular tissue of -Fx-HRT patients had a lower mineral:matrix ratio (M:M) and collagen maturity (XLR) than that of -Fx+HRT patients (-22% M:M, -18% XLR) and +Fx patients (-17% M:M, -18% XLR). Across multiple FTIR parameters, tissue from the -Fx-HRT group had smaller low-tail (5th percentile) values than that from the -Fx+HRT or +Fx groups. In trabecular collagen maturity and crystallinity (XST), the -Fx-HRT group had smaller low-tail values than those in the -Fx+HRT group (-16% XLR, -5% XST) and the +Fx group (-17% XLR, -7% XST). The relatively low values of trabecular mineral:matrix ratio and collagen maturity and smaller low-tail values of collagen maturity and crystallinity observed in the -Fx-HRT group are characteristic of younger tissue. Taken together, our data suggest that the presence of newly formed tissue that includes small/imperfect crystals and immature crosslinks, as well as moderately mature tissue, is an important characteristic of healthy, fracture-resistant bone. Finally, the larger mean and low-tail values of mineral:matrix ratio and collagen maturity noted in our -Fx+HRT vs. -Fx-HRT biopsies are consistent with greater tissue age and greater BMD arising from decreased osteoclastic resorption in HRT-treated patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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1981-12-01
CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY OF A SYSTEM MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS AFIT/GOR/MA/81D-8 Philippe A. Lussier 2nd Lt USAF... MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology...repetitions are used for these test procedures. vi Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter
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Comparison of z-known GRBs with the Main Groups of Bright BATSE Events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mitrofanov, Igor G.; Sanin, Anton B.; Anfimov, Dmitrij S.; Litvak, Maxim L.; Briggs, Michael S.; Paciesas, William S.; Pendleton, Geoffrey N.; Preece, Robert D.; Meegan, Charles A.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
The small reference sample of six BATSE gamma-ray bursts with known redshifts from optical afterglows is compared with a comparison group of the 218 brightest BATSE bursts. These two groups are shown to be consistent both with respect to the distributions of the spectral peak parameter in the observer's frame and also with respect to the distributions of the frame-independent cosmological invariant parameter (CIP). Using the known values of the redshifts z for the reference sample, the rest-frame distribution of spectral parameters is built. The de-redshifted distribution of the spectral parameters of the reference sample is compared with distribution of these parameters for the comparison group after de-redshifting by the factor 1/(1+z), with z a free parameter. Requiring consistency between these two distributions produces a collective estimation of the best fitting redshifts z for the comparison group, z=1.8--3.6. These values can be considered as the average cosmological redshift of the sources of the brightest BATSE bursts. The most probable value of the peak energy of the spectrum in the rest frame is 920 keV, close to the rest mass of an electron-positron pair.
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Developmental differences in intra-individual variability in children with ADHD and ASD.
van Belle, Janna; van Hulst, Branko M; Durston, Sarah
2015-12-01
Intra-individual variability reflects temporal variation within an individual's performance on a cognitive task. Children with developmental disorders, such as ADHD and ASD show increased levels of intra-individual variability. In typical development, intra-individual variability decreases sharply between the ages 6 and 20. The tight link between intra-individual variability and age has led to the suggestion that it may be marker of neural development. As there is accumulating evidence that ADHD and ASD are characterised by atypical neurodevelopmental trajectories, we set out to explore developmental changes in intra-individual variability in subjects with ADHD and ASD. We used propensity score matching to match a cross-sectional sample of children with ADHD, ASD and control subjects (N = 405, aged 6-19 years old) for age, IQ and gender. We used ex-Gaussian distribution parameters to characterise intra-individual variability on fast responses (sigma) and slow responses (tau). Results showed that there was a similar decrease in mean response times with age across groups, and an interaction between age and group for measures of variability, where there was a much lower rate of change in the variability parameters (sigma and tau) for subjects with ASD compared with the other two groups. Subjects with ADHD had higher intra-individual variability, reflected by both sigma and tau, but the rate of decrease in variability with age was similar to that of the controls. These results suggest that subjects with ADHD, ASD and controls differ in the rate at which intra-individual variability decreases during development, and support the idea that intra-individual variability may be a marker of neural development, mimicking the neurodevelopmental changes in these disorders. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.
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Impairment of nutritional regulation of adipose triglyceride lipase expression with age.
Caimari, A; Oliver, P; Palou, A
2008-08-01
Fasting-induced lipolysis becomes less effective with age. We have studied whether nutritional regulation of adipose triglyceride lipase (ATGL)--with an important role in lipolysis in low energy states--is affected by age. Wistar rats of different ages (from 1 to 13 months) were distributed in control and fasted groups (14 h-food deprivation). ATGL mRNA expression was measured in different adipose depots at different ages and in only one depot at 13 months by reverse transcription (RT)-PCR. ATGL protein levels were determined at 3 and 7 months (not at 13 months) by western blot. Nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA), insulin and leptin levels were assessed in serum by enzymatic assays. ATGL expression was dependent on regional fat distribution, with higher levels in brown than in white adipose tissue depots; and was affected by age: ATGL mRNA was increased with age in the brown adipose tissue and was decreased in two of the studied white depots, the inguinal and retroperitoneal, not being affected in the epididymal and mesenteric. Age also affected ATGL nutritional regulation: fasting increased ATGL gene expression and protein levels in the different white adipose depots of the youngest rats (up to the age of 5 months), whereas there was no change in the oldest rats studied (7 and 13-months old). This was in agreement with the pattern of NEFA levels, which did not increase in serum of fasted rats in the oldest animals, whereas other homeostatic parameters, such as insulin and leptin, responded to fasting independently of age. ATGL expressed by brown adipose tissue was not affected by feeding conditions at any age. Nutritional regulation of ATGL expression in white adipose tissue is impaired with age, which could contribute to the increased difficulty for mobilizing lipids when animals are exposed to nutritional stress such as fasting.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harman, C. J.
2014-12-01
Models that faithfully represent spatially-integrated hydrologic transport through the critical zone at sub-watershed scales are essential building blocks for large-scale models of land use and climate controls on non-point source contaminant delivery. A particular challenge facing these models is the need to represent the delay between inputs of soluble contaminants (such as nitrate) at the field scale, and the solute load that appears in streams. Recent advances in the theory of time-variable transit time distributions (e.g. Botter et al., GRL 38(L11403), 2011) have provided a rigorous framework for representing conservative solute transport and its coupling to hydrologic variability and partitioning. Here I will present a reformulation of this framework that offers several distinct advantages over existing formulations: 1) the derivation of the governing conservation equation is simple and intuitive, 2) the closure relations are expressed in a convenient and physically meaningful way as probability distributions Ω(ST)Omega(S_T) over the storage ranked by age STS_T, and 3) changes in transport behavior determined by storage-dependent dilution and flow-path dynamics (as distinct from those due only to changes in the rates and partitioning of water flux) are completely encapsulated by these probability distributions. The framework has been implemented to model to the rich dataset of long-term stream and precipitation chloride from the Plynlimon watershed in Wales, UK. With suitable choices for the functional form of the closure relationships, only a small number of free parameters are required to reproduce the observed chloride dynamics as well as previous models with many more parameters, including reproducing the observed fractal 1/f filtering of the streamflow chloride variability. The modeled transport dynamics are sensitive to the input precipitation variability and water balance partitioning to evapotranspiration. Apparent storage-dependent age-sampling suggests that the model can account for shifts in flow pathways across high and low flows. This approach suggests a path forward for catchment-scale coupled flow and transport modeling.
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Pérez-Guillé, María-Gabriela; Toledo-López, Alejandra; Rivera-Espinosa, Liliana; Alemon-Medina, Radames; Murata, Chiharu; Lares-Asseff, Ismael; Chávez-Pacheco, Juan Luis; Gómez-Garduño, Josefina; Zamora Gutiérrez, Ana-Lilia; Orozco-Galicia, Claudia; Ramírez-Morales, Karina; Lugo-Goytia, Gustavo
2018-05-17
Dexmedetomidine (DEX) is an α-2 adrenergic agonist with sedative and analgesic properties. Although not approved for pediatric use by the Food and Drug Administration, DEX is increasingly used in pediatric anesthesia and critical care. However, very limited information is available regarding the pharmacokinetics of DEX in children. The aim of this study was to investigate DEX pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PK-PD) in Mexican children 2-18 years of age who were undergoing outpatient surgical procedures. Thirty children 2-18 years of age with American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score of I/II were enrolled in this study. DEX (0.7 µg/kg) was administered as a single-dose intravenous infusion. Venous blood samples were collected, and plasma DEX concentrations were analyzed with a combination of high-performance liquid chromatography and electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry. Population PK-PD models were constructed using the Monolix program. A 2-compartment model adequately described the concentration-time relationship. The parameters were standardized for a body weight of 70 kg by using an allometric model. Population parameters estimates were as follows: mean (between-subject variability): clearance (Cl) (L/h × 70 kg) = 20.8 (27%); central volume of distribution (V1) (L × 70 kg) = 21.9 (20%); peripheral volume of distribution (V2) (L × 70 kg) = 81.2 (21%); and intercompartmental clearance (Q) (L/h × 70 kg) = 75.8 (25%). The PK-PD model predicted a maximum mean arterial blood pressure reduction of 45% with an IC50 of 0.501 ng/ml, and a maximum heart rate reduction of 28.9% with an IC50 of 0.552 ng/ml. Our results suggest that in Mexican children 2-18 years of age with American Society of Anesthesiologists score of I/II, the DEX dose should be adjusted in accordance with lower DEX clearance.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morgenstern, Uwe; Daughney, Christopher J.; Stewart, Michael K.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.
2013-04-01
The transit time distribution of streamflow is a fundamental descriptor of the flowpaths of water through a catchment and the storage of water within it, controlling its response to landuse change, pollution, ecological degradation, and climate change. Significant time lags (catchment memory) in the responses of streams to these stressors and their amelioration or restoration have been observed. Lag time can be quantified via water transit time of the catchment discharge. Mean transit times can be in the order of years and decades (Stewart et al 2012, Morgenstern et al., 2010). If the water passes through large groundwater reservoirs, it is difficult to quantify and predict the lag time. A pulse shaped tracer that moves with the water can allow quantification of the mean transit time. Environmental tritium is the ideal tracer of the water cycle. Tritium is part of the water molecule, is not affected by chemical reactions in the aquifer, and the bomb tritium from the atmospheric nuclear weapons testing represents a pulse shaped tracer input that allows for very accurate measurement of the age distribution parameters of the water in the catchment discharge. Tritium time series data from all catchment discharges (streams and springs) into Lake Rotorua, New Zealand, allow for accurate determination of the age distribution parameters. The Lake Rotorua catchment tritium data from streams and springs are unique, with high-quality tritium data available over more than four decades, encompassing the time when the bomb-tritium moved through the groundwater system, and from a very high number of streams and springs. Together with the well-defined tritium input into the Rotorua catchment, this data set allows for the best understanding of the water dynamics through a large scale catchment, including validation of complicated water mixing models. Mean transit times of the main streams into the lake range between 27 and 170 years. With such old water discharging into the lake, most of the water inflows into the lake are not yet fully representing the nitrate loading in their sub-catchments from current land use practises. These water inflows are still 'diluted' by pristine old water, but over time, the full amount of nitrate load will arrive at the lake. With the age distribution parameters, it is possible to predict the increase in nitrate load to the lake via the groundwater discharges. All sub-catchments have different mean transit times. The mean transit times are not necessarily correlated with observable hydrogeologic properties like hydraulic conductivity and catchment size. Without such age tracer data, it is therefore difficult to predict mean transit times (lag times, memory) of water transfer through catchments. References: Stewart, M.K., Morgenstern, U., McDonnell, J.J., Pfister, L. (2012). The 'hidden streamflow' challenge in catchment hydrology: A call to action for streamwater transit time analysis. Hydrol. Process. 26,2061-2066, Invited commentary. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9262 Morgenstern, U., Stewart, M.K., and Stenger, R. (2010) Dating of streamwater using tritium in a post nuclear bomb pulse world: continuous variation of mean transit time with streamflow, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 14, 2289-2301
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Bacterial Meningitis in the Infant
Ku, Lawrence C.; Boggess, Kim A.
2014-01-01
SYNOPSIS Neonatal bacterial meningitis is an uncommon but devastating infection. Although the incidence and mortality have declined over the last several decades, morbidity among survivors remains high. The types and distribution of causative pathogens are related to birth gestational age, postnatal age, and geographic region. Confirming the diagnosis of meningitis can be difficult. Clinical signs are often subtle, and the lumbar puncture is frequently deferred in clinically unstable infants. When obtained, confirmatory testing with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture is often compromised by antepartum or postnatal antibiotic exposure. While blood cultures and CSF parameters may be helpful in cases where the diagnosis is uncertain, bacterial meningitis occurs in infants without bacteremia and with normal CSF parameters. Newer tests such as the polymerase chain reaction are promising but require further study. Prompt treatment with appropriate antibiotics is essential to optimize outcomes. Successful efforts to prevent meningitis in infants have included the use of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis against Group B Streptococcus (GBS). Clinical trials investigating the use of a GBS vaccine for the prevention of neonatal GBS disease are ongoing. PMID:25677995
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Park, Yoon Soo; Lee, Young-Sun; Xing, Kuan
2016-01-01
This study investigates the impact of item parameter drift (IPD) on parameter and ability estimation when the underlying measurement model fits a mixture distribution, thereby violating the item invariance property of unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models. An empirical study was conducted to demonstrate the occurrence of both IPD and an underlying mixture distribution using real-world data. Twenty-one trended anchor items from the 1999, 2003, and 2007 administrations of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) were analyzed using unidimensional and mixture IRT models. TIMSS treats trended anchor items as invariant over testing administrations and uses pre-calibrated item parameters based on unidimensional IRT. However, empirical results showed evidence of two latent subgroups with IPD. Results also showed changes in the distribution of examinee ability between latent classes over the three administrations. A simulation study was conducted to examine the impact of IPD on the estimation of ability and item parameters, when data have underlying mixture distributions. Simulations used data generated from a mixture IRT model and estimated using unidimensional IRT. Results showed that data reflecting IPD using mixture IRT model led to IPD in the unidimensional IRT model. Changes in the distribution of examinee ability also affected item parameters. Moreover, drift with respect to item discrimination and distribution of examinee ability affected estimates of examinee ability. These findings demonstrate the need to caution and evaluate IPD using a mixture IRT framework to understand its effects on item parameters and examinee ability.
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Park, Yoon Soo; Lee, Young-Sun; Xing, Kuan
2016-01-01
This study investigates the impact of item parameter drift (IPD) on parameter and ability estimation when the underlying measurement model fits a mixture distribution, thereby violating the item invariance property of unidimensional item response theory (IRT) models. An empirical study was conducted to demonstrate the occurrence of both IPD and an underlying mixture distribution using real-world data. Twenty-one trended anchor items from the 1999, 2003, and 2007 administrations of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) were analyzed using unidimensional and mixture IRT models. TIMSS treats trended anchor items as invariant over testing administrations and uses pre-calibrated item parameters based on unidimensional IRT. However, empirical results showed evidence of two latent subgroups with IPD. Results also showed changes in the distribution of examinee ability between latent classes over the three administrations. A simulation study was conducted to examine the impact of IPD on the estimation of ability and item parameters, when data have underlying mixture distributions. Simulations used data generated from a mixture IRT model and estimated using unidimensional IRT. Results showed that data reflecting IPD using mixture IRT model led to IPD in the unidimensional IRT model. Changes in the distribution of examinee ability also affected item parameters. Moreover, drift with respect to item discrimination and distribution of examinee ability affected estimates of examinee ability. These findings demonstrate the need to caution and evaluate IPD using a mixture IRT framework to understand its effects on item parameters and examinee ability. PMID:26941699
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Mapping of Boulder Ejecta around Late Amazonian Impact Craters on Mars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hood, D.; Karunatillake, S.; Fassett, C.
2017-12-01
Detailed mapping of boulders in Martian crater ejecta is lacking due to the large burden of manual boulder counting. Using a newly-developed boulder recognition algorithm, we map the ejected blocks of four Late Amazonian craters. These four craters: Tomini B (125° E, 15° N), Zumba (227° E, -9° N), Gratteri (200° E, -18° N), and an unnamed crater at 230° E, -23° N, have crater ages spanning from as young as 200 ka to as old as 17 Ma [Hartmann et al., 2010; Schon and Head, 2012]. Both Zumba and the unnamed crater are in Daedalia Planum but have very distinct ages making these ideal targets to examine boulder distribution variability within the same target material. Gratteri and Tomini B, by contrast, are in less distinct geologic settings with the impacted material being of mixed fluvial-volcanic origin. For these craters we locate and measure all meter-scale boulders outside of the crater rim and up to 3 crater radii away. Following the method described by Krishna and Kumar [Krishna and Kumar, 2016], we divide the area outside the crater basin into 36 angular sectors, each being 10° wide, and 30 radial sectors 1/10 crater radii wide up to 3 crater radii from the rim. These divisions enable investigation into the distribution of ejected boulders as a function of both direction and distance. We compute the cumulative size-frequency distribution, normalized to the surface area of the observed region, using an exponential fit, as N(a) = Ce-ab, where C is a constant equaling the total number of distinct boulders, a is the average diameter of each boulder, N(a) is the number of boulders of size not less than a, and b is the fit parameter (e.g.[Golombek and Rapp, 1997]). In addition, we also compute the spatial distribution of boulder shapes quantified as elongation: 1-width/height. With the distributions well-described, we compare the spatial distribution of boulders around these four craters to understand how target lithology and age affect the observed distributions.
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Dynamics of a distributed drill string system: Characteristic parameters and stability maps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aarsnes, Ulf Jakob F.; van de Wouw, Nathan
2018-03-01
This paper involves the dynamic (stability) analysis of distributed drill-string systems. A minimal set of parameters characterizing the linearized, axial-torsional dynamics of a distributed drill string coupled through the bit-rock interaction is derived. This is found to correspond to five parameters for a simple drill string and eight parameters for a two-sectioned drill-string (e.g., corresponding to the pipe and collar sections of a drilling system). These dynamic characterizations are used to plot the inverse gain margin of the system, parametrized in the non-dimensional parameters, effectively creating a stability map covering the full range of realistic physical parameters. This analysis reveals a complex spectrum of dynamics not evident in stability analysis with lumped models, thus indicating the importance of analysis using distributed models. Moreover, it reveals trends concerning stability properties depending on key system parameters useful in the context of system and control design aiming at the mitigation of vibrations.
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Log-Normal Distribution of Cosmic Voids in Simulations and Mocks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Russell, E.; Pycke, J.-R.
2017-01-01
Following up on previous studies, we complete here a full analysis of the void size distributions of the Cosmic Void Catalog based on three different simulation and mock catalogs: dark matter (DM), haloes, and galaxies. Based on this analysis, we attempt to answer two questions: Is a three-parameter log-normal distribution a good candidate to satisfy the void size distributions obtained from different types of environments? Is there a direct relation between the shape parameters of the void size distribution and the environmental effects? In an attempt to answer these questions, we find here that all void size distributions of these data samples satisfy the three-parameter log-normal distribution whether the environment is dominated by DM, haloes, or galaxies. In addition, the shape parameters of the three-parameter log-normal void size distribution seem highly affected by environment, particularly existing substructures. Therefore, we show two quantitative relations given by linear equations between the skewness and the maximum tree depth, and between the variance of the void size distribution and the maximum tree depth, directly from the simulated data. In addition to this, we find that the percentage of voids with nonzero central density in the data sets has a critical importance. If the number of voids with nonzero central density reaches ≥3.84% in a simulation/mock sample, then a second population is observed in the void size distributions. This second population emerges as a second peak in the log-normal void size distribution at larger radius.
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Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei
2018-02-01
Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.
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Hartin, Samantha N; Hossain, Waheeda A; Manzardo, Ann M; Brown, Shaquanna; Fite, Paula J; Bortolato, Marco; Butler, Merlin G
2018-02-12
The first study of growth hormone receptor (GHR) genotypes in healthy young adults in the United States attending a Midwestern university and impact on selected growth parameters. To describe the frequency of GHR genotypes in a sample of healthy young adults from the United States attending a university in the Midwest and analyze the relationship between GHR genotypes and selected growth parameters. Saliva was collected from 459 healthy young adults (237 females, 222 males; age range = 18-25 y) and DNA isolated for genotyping of GHR alleles (fl/fl, fl/d3, or d3/d3). Selected growth parameters were collected and GHR genotype data examined for previously reported associations (e.g., height, weight or bone mass density) or novel findings (e.g., % body water and index finger length). We found 219 participants (48%) homozygous for fl/fl, 203 (44%), heterozygous fl/d3 and 37 (8%) homozygous d3/d3. The distribution of GHR genotypes in our participants was consistent with previous reports of non-US populations. Several anthropometric measures differed by sex. The distribution of GHR genotypes did not significantly differ by sex, weight, or other anthropometric measures. However, the fl/d3 genotype was more common among African-Americans. Our study of growth and anthropometric parameters in relationship to GHR genotypes found no association with height, weight, right index finger length, BMI, bone mass density, % body fat or % body water in healthy young adults. We did identify sex differences with increased body fat, decreased bone density, body water and index finger length in females. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Aydin, Z D; Barista, I; Canpinar, H; Sungur, A; Tekuzman, G
2000-07-01
In contrast to DNA ploidy, to the authors' knowledge the prognostic significance of S-phase fraction (SPF) in gastric lymphomas has not been determined. In the current study, the prognostic significance of various parameters including SPF and DNA aneuploidy were analyzed and some distinct epidemiologic and biologic features of gastric lymphomas in Turkey were found. A series of 78 gastric lymphoma patients followed at Hacettepe University is reported. DNA flow cytometry was performed for 34 patients. The influence of various parameters on survival was investigated with the log rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify independent prognostic factors. The median age of the patients was 50 years. There was no correlation between patient age and tumor grade. DNA content analysis revealed 4 of the 34 cases to be aneuploid with DNA index values < 1.0. The mean SPF was 33.5%. In the univariate analysis, surgical resection of the tumor, modified Ann Arbor stage, performance status, response to first-line chemotherapy, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, and SPF were important prognostic factors for disease free survival (DFS). The same parameters, excluding LDH level, were important for determining overall survival (OS). In the multivariate analysis, surgical resection of the tumor, disease stage, performance status, and age were found to be important prognostic factors for OS. To the authors' knowledge the current study is the first to demonstrate the prognostic significance of SPF in gastric lymphomas. The distinguishing features of Turkish gastric lymphoma patients are 1) DNA indices of aneuploid cases that all are < 1.0, which is a unique feature; 2) a lower percentage of aneuploid cases; 3) a higher SPF; 4) a younger age distribution; and 5) lack of an age-grade correlation. The authors conclude that gastric lymphomas in Turkey have distinct biologic and epidemiologic characteristics. Copyright 2000 American Cancer Society.
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Systems and methods for optimal power flow on a radial network
Low, Steven H.; Peng, Qiuyu
2018-04-24
Node controllers and power distribution networks in accordance with embodiments of the invention enable distributed power control. One embodiment includes a node controller including a distributed power control application; a plurality of node operating parameters describing the operating parameter of a node and a set of at least one node selected from the group consisting of an ancestor node and at least one child node; wherein send node operating parameters to nodes in the set of at least one node; receive operating parameters from the nodes in the set of at least one node; calculate a plurality of updated node operating parameters using an iterative process to determine the updated node operating parameters using the node operating parameters that describe the operating parameters of the node and the set of at least one node, where the iterative process involves evaluation of a closed form solution; and adjust node operating parameters.
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Rafal Podlaski; Francis A. Roesch
2013-01-01
Study assessed the usefulness of various methods for choosing the initial values for the numerical procedures for estimating the parameters of mixture distributions and analysed variety of mixture models to approximate empirical diameter at breast height (dbh) distributions. Two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution were...
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Monterial, Mateusz; Marleau, Peter; Paff, Marc; ...
2017-01-20
Here, we present the results from the first measurements of the Time-Correlated Pulse-Height (TCPH) distributions from 4.5 kg sphere of α-phase weapons-grade plutonium metal in five configurations: bare, reflected by 1.27 cm and 2.54 cm of tungsten, and 2.54 cm and 7.62 cm of polyethylene. A new method for characterizing source multiplication and shielding configuration is also demonstrated. The method relies on solving for the underlying fission chain timing distribution that drives the spreading of the measured TCPH distribution. We found that a gamma distribution fits the fission chain timing distribution well and that the fit parameters correlate with bothmore » multiplication (rate parameter) and shielding material types (shape parameter). The source-to-detector distance was another free parameter that we were able to optimize, and proved to be the most well constrained parameter. MCNPX-PoliMi simulations were used to complement the measurements and help illustrate trends in these parameters and their relation to multiplication and the amount and type of material coupled to the subcritical assembly.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Monterial, Mateusz; Marleau, Peter; Paff, Marc; Clarke, Shaun; Pozzi, Sara
2017-04-01
We present the results from the first measurements of the Time-Correlated Pulse-Height (TCPH) distributions from 4.5 kg sphere of α-phase weapons-grade plutonium metal in five configurations: bare, reflected by 1.27 cm and 2.54 cm of tungsten, and 2.54 cm and 7.62 cm of polyethylene. A new method for characterizing source multiplication and shielding configuration is also demonstrated. The method relies on solving for the underlying fission chain timing distribution that drives the spreading of the measured TCPH distribution. We found that a gamma distribution fits the fission chain timing distribution well and that the fit parameters correlate with both multiplication (rate parameter) and shielding material types (shape parameter). The source-to-detector distance was another free parameter that we were able to optimize, and proved to be the most well constrained parameter. MCNPX-PoliMi simulations were used to complement the measurements and help illustrate trends in these parameters and their relation to multiplication and the amount and type of material coupled to the subcritical assembly.
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Cooley, Richard L.
1993-01-01
Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.
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Measurement of Device Parameters Using Image Recovery Techniques in Large-Scale IC Devices
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Scheick, Leif; Edmonds, Larry
2004-01-01
Devices that respond to radiation on a cell level will produce histograms showing the relative frequency of cell damage as a function of damage. The measured distribution is the convolution of distributions from radiation responses, measurement noise, and manufacturing parameters. A method of extracting device characteristics and parameters from measured distributions via mathematical and image subtraction techniques is described.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shioiri, Tetsu; Asari, Naoki; Sato, Junichi; Sasage, Kosuke; Yokokura, Kunio; Homma, Mitsutaka; Suzuki, Katsumi
To investigate the reliability of equipment of vacuum insulation, a study was carried out to clarify breakdown probability distributions in vacuum gap. Further, a double-break vacuum circuit breaker was investigated for breakdown probability distribution. The test results show that the breakdown probability distribution of the vacuum gap can be represented by a Weibull distribution using a location parameter, which shows the voltage that permits a zero breakdown probability. The location parameter obtained from Weibull plot depends on electrode area. The shape parameter obtained from Weibull plot of vacuum gap was 10∼14, and is constant irrespective non-uniform field factor. The breakdown probability distribution after no-load switching can be represented by Weibull distribution using a location parameter. The shape parameter after no-load switching was 6∼8.5, and is constant, irrespective of gap length. This indicates that the scatter of breakdown voltage was increased by no-load switching. If the vacuum circuit breaker uses a double break, breakdown probability at low voltage becomes lower than single-break probability. Although potential distribution is a concern in the double-break vacuum cuicuit breaker, its insulation reliability is better than that of the single-break vacuum interrupter even if the bias of the vacuum interrupter's sharing voltage is taken into account.
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2013-01-01
Background Mass distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets (LLINs) has led to large increases in LLIN coverage in many African countries. As LLIN ownership levels increase, planners of future mass distributions face the challenge of deciding whether to ignore the nets already owned by households or to take these into account and attempt to target individuals or households without nets. Taking existing nets into account would reduce commodity costs but require more sophisticated, and potentially more costly, distribution procedures. The decision may also have implications for the average age of nets in use and therefore on the maintenance of universal LLIN coverage over time. Methods A stochastic simulation model based on the NetCALC algorithm was used to determine the scenarios under which it would be cost saving to take existing nets into account, and the potential effects of doing so on the age profile of LLINs owned. The model accounted for variability in timing of distributions, concomitant use of continuous distribution systems, population growth, sampling error in pre-campaign coverage surveys, variable net ‘decay’ parameters and other factors including the feasibility and accuracy of identifying existing nets in the field. Results Results indicate that (i) where pre-campaign coverage is around 40% (of households owning at least 1 LLIN), accounting for existing nets in the campaign will have little effect on the mean age of the net population and (ii) even at pre-campaign coverage levels above 40%, an approach that reduces LLIN distribution requirements by taking existing nets into account may have only a small chance of being cost-saving overall, depending largely on the feasibility of identifying nets in the field. Based on existing literature the epidemiological implications of such a strategy is likely to vary by transmission setting, and the risks of leaving older nets in the field when accounting for existing nets must be considered. Conclusions Where pre-campaign coverage levels established by a household survey are below 40% we recommend that planners do not take such LLINs into account and instead plan a blanket mass distribution. At pre-campaign coverage levels above 40%, campaign planners should make explicit consideration of the cost and feasibility of accounting for existing LLINs before planning blanket mass distributions. Planners should also consider restricting the coverage estimates used for this decision to only include nets under two years of age in order to ensure that old and damaged nets do not compose too large a fraction of existing net coverage. PMID:23763773
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Yukich, Joshua; Bennett, Adam; Keating, Joseph; Yukich, Rudy K; Lynch, Matt; Eisele, Thomas P; Kolaczinski, Kate
2013-06-14
Mass distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets (LLINs) has led to large increases in LLIN coverage in many African countries. As LLIN ownership levels increase, planners of future mass distributions face the challenge of deciding whether to ignore the nets already owned by households or to take these into account and attempt to target individuals or households without nets. Taking existing nets into account would reduce commodity costs but require more sophisticated, and potentially more costly, distribution procedures. The decision may also have implications for the average age of nets in use and therefore on the maintenance of universal LLIN coverage over time. A stochastic simulation model based on the NetCALC algorithm was used to determine the scenarios under which it would be cost saving to take existing nets into account, and the potential effects of doing so on the age profile of LLINs owned. The model accounted for variability in timing of distributions, concomitant use of continuous distribution systems, population growth, sampling error in pre-campaign coverage surveys, variable net 'decay' parameters and other factors including the feasibility and accuracy of identifying existing nets in the field. Results indicate that (i) where pre-campaign coverage is around 40% (of households owning at least 1 LLIN), accounting for existing nets in the campaign will have little effect on the mean age of the net population and (ii) even at pre-campaign coverage levels above 40%, an approach that reduces LLIN distribution requirements by taking existing nets into account may have only a small chance of being cost-saving overall, depending largely on the feasibility of identifying nets in the field. Based on existing literature the epidemiological implications of such a strategy is likely to vary by transmission setting, and the risks of leaving older nets in the field when accounting for existing nets must be considered. Where pre-campaign coverage levels established by a household survey are below 40% we recommend that planners do not take such LLINs into account and instead plan a blanket mass distribution. At pre-campaign coverage levels above 40%, campaign planners should make explicit consideration of the cost and feasibility of accounting for existing LLINs before planning blanket mass distributions. Planners should also consider restricting the coverage estimates used for this decision to only include nets under two years of age in order to ensure that old and damaged nets do not compose too large a fraction of existing net coverage.
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Distribution of water quality parameters in Dhemaji district, Assam (India).
Buragohain, Mridul; Bhuyan, Bhabajit; Sarma, H P
2010-07-01
The primary objective of this study is to present a statistically significant water quality database of Dhemaji district, Assam (India) with special reference to pH, fluoride, nitrate, arsenic, iron, sodium and potassium. 25 water samples collected from different locations of five development blocks in Dhemaji district have been studied separately. The implications presented are based on statistical analyses of the raw data. Normal distribution statistics and reliability analysis (correlation and covariance matrix) have been employed to find out the distribution pattern, localisation of data, and other related information. Statistical observations show that all the parameters under investigation exhibit non uniform distribution with a long asymmetric tail either on the right or left side of the median. The width of the third quartile was consistently found to be more than the second quartile for each parameter. Differences among mean, mode and median, significant skewness and kurtosis value indicate that the distribution of various water quality parameters in the study area is widely off normal. Thus, the intrinsic water quality is not encouraging due to unsymmetrical distribution of various water quality parameters in the study area.
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Capturing the dynamics of response variability in the brain in ADHD.
van Belle, Janna; van Raalten, Tamar; Bos, Dienke J; Zandbelt, Bram B; Oranje, Bob; Durston, Sarah
2015-01-01
ADHD is characterized by increased intra-individual variability in response times during the performance of cognitive tasks. However, little is known about developmental changes in intra-individual variability, and how these changes relate to cognitive performance. Twenty subjects with ADHD aged 7-24 years and 20 age-matched, typically developing controls participated in an fMRI-scan while they performed a go-no-go task. We fit an ex-Gaussian distribution on the response distribution to objectively separate extremely slow responses, related to lapses of attention, from variability on fast responses. We assessed developmental changes in these intra-individual variability measures, and investigated their relation to no-go performance. Results show that the ex-Gaussian measures were better predictors of no-go performance than traditional measures of reaction time. Furthermore, we found between-group differences in the change in ex-Gaussian parameters with age, and their relation to task performance: subjects with ADHD showed age-related decreases in their variability on fast responses (sigma), but not in lapses of attention (tau), whereas control subjects showed a decrease in both measures of variability. For control subjects, but not subjects with ADHD, this age-related reduction in variability was predictive of task performance. This group difference was reflected in neural activation: for typically developing subjects, the age-related decrease in intra-individual variability on fast responses (sigma) predicted activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus (dACG), whereas for subjects with ADHD, activity in this region was related to improved no-go performance with age, but not to intra-individual variability. These data show that using more sophisticated measures of intra-individual variability allows the capturing of the dynamics of task performance and associated neural changes not permitted by more traditional measures.
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Capturing the dynamics of response variability in the brain in ADHD
van Belle, Janna; van Raalten, Tamar; Bos, Dienke J.; Zandbelt, Bram B.; Oranje, Bob; Durston, Sarah
2014-01-01
ADHD is characterized by increased intra-individual variability in response times during the performance of cognitive tasks. However, little is known about developmental changes in intra-individual variability, and how these changes relate to cognitive performance. Twenty subjects with ADHD aged 7–24 years and 20 age-matched, typically developing controls participated in an fMRI-scan while they performed a go-no-go task. We fit an ex-Gaussian distribution on the response distribution to objectively separate extremely slow responses, related to lapses of attention, from variability on fast responses. We assessed developmental changes in these intra-individual variability measures, and investigated their relation to no-go performance. Results show that the ex-Gaussian measures were better predictors of no-go performance than traditional measures of reaction time. Furthermore, we found between-group differences in the change in ex-Gaussian parameters with age, and their relation to task performance: subjects with ADHD showed age-related decreases in their variability on fast responses (sigma), but not in lapses of attention (tau), whereas control subjects showed a decrease in both measures of variability. For control subjects, but not subjects with ADHD, this age-related reduction in variability was predictive of task performance. This group difference was reflected in neural activation: for typically developing subjects, the age-related decrease in intra-individual variability on fast responses (sigma) predicted activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus (dACG), whereas for subjects with ADHD, activity in this region was related to improved no-go performance with age, but not to intra-individual variability. These data show that using more sophisticated measures of intra-individual variability allows the capturing of the dynamics of task performance and associated neural changes not permitted by more traditional measures. PMID:25610775
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On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Olea, Ricardo A., E-mail: olea@usgs.gov
2011-12-15
The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. Themore » beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution.« less
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Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: consequence of branching process
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kagan, Yan Y.
2010-03-01
We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously, we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson, geometric, logarithmic and the negative binomial (NBD). The theoretical model is the `birth and immigration' population process. The first three distributions above can be considered special cases of the NBD. In particular, a point branching process along the magnitude (or log seismic moment) axis with independent events (immigrants) explains the magnitude/moment-frequency relation and the NBD of earthquake counts in large time/space windows, as well as the dependence of the NBD parameters on the magnitude threshold (magnitude of an earthquake catalogue completeness). We discuss applying these distributions, especially the NBD, to approximate event numbers in earthquake catalogues. There are many different representations of the NBD. Most can be traced either to the Pascal distribution or to the mixture of the Poisson distribution with the gamma law. We discuss advantages and drawbacks of both representations for statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues. We also consider applying the NBD to earthquake forecasts and describe the limits of the application for the given equations. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrence, the NBD has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize clustering or overdispersion of a process. We determine the parameter values and their uncertainties for several local and global catalogues, and their subdivisions in various time intervals, magnitude thresholds, spatial windows, and tectonic categories. The theoretical model of how the clustering parameter depends on the corner (maximum) magnitude can be used to predict future earthquake number distribution in regions where very large earthquakes have not yet occurred.
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Sebastià, Natividad; Hervás, David; Almonacid, Miguel; Villaescusa, Juan Ignacio; Soriano, José Miguel; Sahuquillo, Vicenta; Esteban, Valentín; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Verdú, Gumersindo; Cervera, José; Such, Esperanza; Montoro, Alegría
2014-04-01
According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, smoking tobacco is a major cause of cancer in humans. It causes about half of all male cancer deaths and an ever increasing number of cancer deaths in females. The aim of this study was to establish whether cigarette smoking increases sister chromatid exchanges (SCEs) in peripheral blood lymphocytes in two Spanish population groups; light and heavy smokers. The mean number of High-Frequency Cells (HFCs) was determined and, the SCE distribution pattern among the chromosomes was analysed represented by a ratio described below. A local sample of 101 adult smokers (n=48) and non-smokers (n=53), aged from 18 to 49 years, was studied using SCE levels in peripheral lymphocytes. Heavy smoking (≥ 10 cigarettes per day) increased significantly the SCE frequency and the HFC parameters. Neither age nor sex significantly influenced the frequencies in the groups studied. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Schubert, Gerrit Alexander; Czabanka, Marcus; Seiz, Marcel; Horn, Peter; Vajkoczy, Peter; Thomé, Claudius
2014-01-01
Moyamoya disease (MMD) is characterized by unique angiographic features of collateralization. However, a detailed quantification as well as comparative analysis with cerebrovascular atherosclerotic disease (CAD) and healthy controls have not been performed to date. We reviewed 67 patients with MMD undergoing Xenon-enhanced computed tomography, as well as 108 patients with CAD and 5 controls. In addition to cortical, central, and infratentorial regions of interest, particular emphasis was put on regions that are typically involved in MMD (pericallosal territory, basal ganglia). Cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebrovascular reserve capacity (CVRC), and hemodynamic stress distribution were calculated. MMD is characterized by a significant, ubiquitous decrease in CVRC and a cortical but not pericallosal decrease in CBF when compared with controls. Baseline perfusion is maintained within the basal ganglia, and hemodynamic stress distribution confirmed a relative preservation of central regions of interest in MMD, indicative for its characteristic proximal collateralization pattern. In MMD and CAD, cortical and central CBF decreased significantly with age, whereas CVRC and hemodynamic stress distribution are relatively unaffected by age. No difference in CVRC of comparable regions of interest was seen between MMD and CAD, but stress distribution was significantly higher in MMD, illustrating the functionality of the characteristic rete mirabilis. Our data provide quantitative support for a territory-specific perfusion pattern that is unique for MMD, including central preservation of CBF compared with controls and patients with CAD. This correlates well with its characteristic feature of proximal collateralization. CVRC and hemodynamic stress distribution seem to be more robust parameters than CBF alone for assessment of disease severity.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Demirel, M. C.; Mai, J.; Stisen, S.; Mendiguren González, G.; Koch, J.; Samaniego, L. E.
2016-12-01
Distributed hydrologic models are traditionally calibrated and evaluated against observations of streamflow. Spatially distributed remote sensing observations offer a great opportunity to enhance spatial model calibration schemes. For that it is important to identify the model parameters that can change spatial patterns before the satellite based hydrologic model calibration. Our study is based on two main pillars: first we use spatial sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters controlling the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET). Second, we investigate the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). This distributed model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the calibration of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) directly as input. In addition the simulated AET can be estimated at the spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed using MODIS data. We introduce a new dynamic scaling function employing remotely sensed vegetation to downscale coarse reference evapotranspiration. In total, 17 parameters of 47 mHM parameters are identified using both sequential screening and Latin hypercube one-at-a-time sampling methods. The spatial patterns are found to be sensitive to the vegetation parameters whereas streamflow dynamics are sensitive to the PTF parameters. The results of multi-objective model calibration show that calibration of mHM against observed streamflow does not reduce the spatial errors in AET while they improve only the streamflow simulations. We will further examine the results of model calibration using only multi spatial objective functions measuring the association between observed AET and simulated AET maps and another case including spatial and streamflow metrics together.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gou, Jun; Lee, Anson; Pyko, Jan
2014-10-01
The cranking and charging processes of a VRLA battery during stop-start cycling in micro-hybrid applications were simulated by one dimensional mathematical modeling, to study the formation and distribution of lead sulfate across the cell and analyze the resulting effect on battery aging. The battery focused on in this study represents a conventional VRLA battery without any carbon additives in the electrodes or carbon-based electrodes. The modeling results were validated against experimental data and used to analyze the "sulfation" of negative electrodes - the common failure mode of lead acid batteries under high-rate partial state of charge (HRPSoC) cycling. The analyses were based on two aging mechanisms proposed in previous studies and the predictions showed consistency with the previous teardown observations that the sulfate formed at the negative interface is more difficult to be converted back than anywhere else in the electrodes. The impact of cranking pulses during stop-start cycling on current density and the corresponding sulfate layer production was estimated. The effects of some critical design parameters on sulfate formation, distribution and aging over cycling were investigated, which provided guidelines for developing models and designing of VRLA batteries in micro-hybrid applications.
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Fetal nasal bone length during the second trimester of pregnancy in a Turkish population.
Goynumer, G; Arisoy, R; Yayla, M; Erdogdu, E; Ergin, N
2014-05-01
To determine the distribution of fetal nasal bone length (NBL) according to gestational age during the second trimester of pregnancy in a Turkish population. Fetal NBL and other routine biometric measurements were evaluated retrospectively in 2327 fetuses between 15 and 24 weeks of gestation. The measurements were obtained via transabdominal ultrasound. The distribution of fetal NBL between 15 and 24 weeks of gestation was established, and percentiles were calculated. Relationships between fetal NBL and other parameters were assessed using regression analysis. Mean (±standard deviation) fetal NBL ranged from 2.95±0.52 at 15 weeks of gestation to 6.26±0.77mm at 24 weeks of gestation. The fifth percentile for fetal NBL was 2.1mm at 15 weeks of gestation and 5.0mm at 24 weeks of gestation. A significant positive correlation was noted between fetal NBL and gestational age (NBL=gestational age×0.37-2.55; R(2)=0.59; p<0.01) and between fetal NBL and biparietal diameter (BPD) (NBL=BPD×0.11-0.33; R(2)=0.61; p<0.01). Fetal NBL is less in Turkish subjects compared with non-Turkish subjects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms.
Patel, Rajan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth
2005-05-21
In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.
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A Bayesian approach to parameter and reliability estimation in the Poisson distribution.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Canavos, G. C.
1972-01-01
For life testing procedures, a Bayesian analysis is developed with respect to a random intensity parameter in the Poisson distribution. Bayes estimators are derived for the Poisson parameter and the reliability function based on uniform and gamma prior distributions of that parameter. A Monte Carlo procedure is implemented to make possible an empirical mean-squared error comparison between Bayes and existing minimum variance unbiased, as well as maximum likelihood, estimators. As expected, the Bayes estimators have mean-squared errors that are appreciably smaller than those of the other two.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Hequn; Shyr, Thomas; Fevola, Michael J.; Cula, Gabriela Oana; Stamatas, Georgios N.
2018-03-01
Two-photon fluorescence (TPF) and second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy provide direct visualization of the skin dermal fibers in vivo. A typical method for analyzing TPF/SHG images involves averaging the image intensity and therefore disregarding the spatial distribution information. The goal of this study is to develop an algorithm to document age-related effects of the dermal matrix. TPF and SHG images were acquired from the upper inner arm, volar forearm, and cheek of female volunteers of two age groups: 20 to 30 and 60 to 80 years of age. The acquired images were analyzed for parameters relating to collagen and elastin fiber features, such as orientation and density. Both collagen and elastin fibers showed higher anisotropy in fiber orientation for the older group. The greatest difference in elastin fiber anisotropy between the two groups was found for the upper inner arm site. Elastin fiber density increased with age, whereas collagen fiber density decreased with age. The proposed analysis considers the spatial information inherent to the TPF and SHG images and provides additional insights into how the dermal fiber structure is affected by the aging process.
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Thompson, Gary A.; Solomon, Gail; Albrecht, Helmut H.; Reitberg, Donald P.
2016-01-01
Abstract This study characterized guaifenesin pharmacokinetics in children aged 2 to 17 years (n = 40) who received a single oral dose of guaifenesin (age‐based doses of 100‐400 mg) 2 hours after breakfast. Plasma samples were obtained before and for 8 hours after dosing and analyzed for guaifenesin using liquid chromatography‐tandem mass spectrometry. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using noncompartmental methods, relationships with age were assessed using linear regression, and dose proportionality was assessed on 95% confidence intervals. Based on the upper dose recommended in the monograph (for both children and adolescents), area under the curve from time zero to infinity and maximum plasma concentration both increased with age. However, when comparing the upper dose for children aged 2 to 11 years with the lower dose for adolescents aged 12 to 17 years, similar systemic exposure was observed. As expected due to increasing body size, oral clearance (CLo) and terminal volume of distribution (Vz/F) increased with age. Due to a larger increase in Vz/F than CLo, an increase in terminal exponential half‐life was also observed. Allometric scaling indicated no maturation‐related changes in CLo and Vz/F. PMID:26632082
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Optimal Bayesian Adaptive Design for Test-Item Calibration.
van der Linden, Wim J; Ren, Hao
2015-06-01
An optimal adaptive design for test-item calibration based on Bayesian optimality criteria is presented. The design adapts the choice of field-test items to the examinees taking an operational adaptive test using both the information in the posterior distributions of their ability parameters and the current posterior distributions of the field-test parameters. Different criteria of optimality based on the two types of posterior distributions are possible. The design can be implemented using an MCMC scheme with alternating stages of sampling from the posterior distributions of the test takers' ability parameters and the parameters of the field-test items while reusing samples from earlier posterior distributions of the other parameters. Results from a simulation study demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed MCMC implementation for operational item calibration. A comparison of performances for different optimality criteria showed faster calibration of substantial numbers of items for the criterion of D-optimality relative to A-optimality, a special case of c-optimality, and random assignment of items to the test takers.
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Double density dynamics: realizing a joint distribution of a physical system and a parameter system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fukuda, Ikuo; Moritsugu, Kei
2015-11-01
To perform a variety of types of molecular dynamics simulations, we created a deterministic method termed ‘double density dynamics’ (DDD), which realizes an arbitrary distribution for both physical variables and their associated parameters simultaneously. Specifically, we constructed an ordinary differential equation that has an invariant density relating to a joint distribution of the physical system and the parameter system. A generalized density function leads to a physical system that develops under nonequilibrium environment-describing superstatistics. The joint distribution density of the physical system and the parameter system appears as the Radon-Nikodym derivative of a distribution that is created by a scaled long-time average, generated from the flow of the differential equation under an ergodic assumption. The general mathematical framework is fully discussed to address the theoretical possibility of our method, and a numerical example representing a 1D harmonic oscillator is provided to validate the method being applied to the temperature parameters.
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A note about Gaussian statistics on a sphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chave, Alan D.
2015-11-01
The statistics of directional data on a sphere can be modelled either using the Fisher distribution that is conditioned on the magnitude being unity, in which case the sample space is confined to the unit sphere, or using the latitude-longitude marginal distribution derived from a trivariate Gaussian model that places no constraint on the magnitude. These two distributions are derived from first principles and compared. The Fisher distribution more closely approximates the uniform distribution on a sphere for a given small value of the concentration parameter, while the latitude-longitude marginal distribution is always slightly larger than the Fisher distribution at small off-axis angles for large values of the concentration parameter. Asymptotic analysis shows that the two distributions only become equivalent in the limit of large concentration parameter and very small off-axis angle.
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Surface and atmosphere parameter maps from earth-orbiting radiometers
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gloersen, P.
1976-01-01
Earlier studies have shown that an earth-orbiting electrically scanned microwave radiometer (ESMR) is capable of inferring the extent, concentration, and age of sea ice; the extent, concentration, and thickness of lake ice; rainfall rates over oceans; surface wind speeds over open water; particle size distribution in the deep snow cover of continental ice sheets; and soil moisture content in unvegetated fields. Most other features of the surface of the earth and its atmosphere require multispectral imaging techniques to unscramble the combined contributions of the atmosphere and the surface. Multispectral extraction of surface parameters is analyzed on the basis of a pertinent equation in terms of the observed brightness temperature, the emissivity of the surface which depends on wavelength and various parameters, the sensible temperature of the surface, and the total atmospheric opacity which is also wavelength dependent. Implementation of the multispectral technique is examined. Properties of the surface of the earth and its atmosphere to be determined from a scanning multichannel microwave radiometer are tabulated.
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Influence of emphysema distribution on pulmonary function parameters in COPD patients
Bastos, Helder Novais e; Neves, Inês; Redondo, Margarida; Cunha, Rui; Pereira, José Miguel; Magalhães, Adriana; Fernandes, Gabriela
2015-01-01
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact that the distribution of emphysema has on clinical and functional severity in patients with COPD. METHODS: The distribution of the emphysema was analyzed in COPD patients, who were classified according to a 5-point visual classification system of lung CT findings. We assessed the influence of emphysema distribution type on the clinical and functional presentation of COPD. We also evaluated hypoxemia after the six-minute walk test (6MWT) and determined the six-minute walk distance (6MWD). RESULTS: Eighty-six patients were included. The mean age was 65.2 ± 12.2 years, 91.9% were male, and all but one were smokers (mean smoking history, 62.7 ± 38.4 pack-years). The emphysema distribution was categorized as obviously upper lung-predominant (type 1), in 36.0% of the patients; slightly upper lung-predominant (type 2), in 25.6%; homogeneous between the upper and lower lung (type 3), in 16.3%; and slightly lower lung-predominant (type 4), in 22.1%. Type 2 emphysema distribution was associated with lower FEV1, FVC, FEV1/FVC ratio, and DLCO. In comparison with the type 1 patients, the type 4 patients were more likely to have an FEV1 < 65% of the predicted value (OR = 6.91, 95% CI: 1.43-33.45; p = 0.016), a 6MWD < 350 m (OR = 6.36, 95% CI: 1.26-32.18; p = 0.025), and post-6MWT hypoxemia (OR = 32.66, 95% CI: 3.26-326.84; p = 0.003). The type 3 patients had a higher RV/TLC ratio, although the difference was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: The severity of COPD appears to be greater in type 4 patients, and type 3 patients tend to have greater hyperinflation. The distribution of emphysema could have a major impact on functional parameters and should be considered in the evaluation of COPD patients. PMID:26785956
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1978-03-01
for the risk of rupture for a unidirectionally laminat - ed composite subjected to pure bending. (5D This equation can be simplified further by use of...C EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS. THESIS / AFIT/GAE...EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WE1BULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS THESIS Presented
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Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Duffy, Stephen F.; Powers, Lynn M.; Starlinger, Alois
1992-01-01
Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.
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Off-line tracking of series parameters in distribution systems using AMI data
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Williams, Tess L.; Sun, Yannan; Schneider, Kevin
2016-05-01
Electric distribution systems have historically lacked measurement points, and equipment is often operated to its failure point, resulting in customer outages. The widespread deployment of sensors at the distribution level is enabling observability. This paper presents an off-line parameter value tracking procedure that takes advantage of the increasing number of measurement devices being deployed at the distribution level to estimate changes in series impedance parameter values over time. The tracking of parameter values enables non-diurnal and non-seasonal change to be flagged for investigation. The presented method uses an unbalanced Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) and a measurement residual-based parameter estimationmore » procedure. Measurement residuals from multiple measurement snapshots are combined in order to increase the effective local redundancy and improve the robustness of the calculations in the presence of measurement noise. Data from devices on the primary distribution system and from customer meters, via an AMI system, form the input data set. Results of simulations on the IEEE 13-Node Test Feeder are presented to illustrate the proposed approach applied to changes in series impedance parameters. A 5% change in series resistance elements can be detected in the presence of 2% measurement error when combining less than 1 day of measurement snapshots into a single estimate.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Parks, N.J.
Data for the bone-by-bone redistribution of 90Sr in the beagle skeleton are reported for a period of 4000 d following a midgestation-to-540-d-exposure by ingestion. The partitioned clearance model (PCM) that was originally developed to describe bone-by-bone radionuclide redistribution of 226Ra after eight semimonthly injections at ages 435-535 d has been fitted to the 90Sr data. The parameter estimates for the PCM that describe the distribution and clearance of 226Ra after deposition on surfaces following injection and analogous parameter estimates for 90Sr after uniform deposition in the skeleton as a function of Ca mass are given. Fractional compact bone masses permore » bone group (mi,COM) are also predicted by the model and compared to measured values; a high degree of correlation (r = 0.84) is found. Bone groups for which the agreement between the model and experimental values of mi,COM was poor had tissue-to-calcium weight ratios about 1.5 times those for bones that agreed well. Metabolically defined surface in PCM is initial activity fraction per Ca fraction in a given skeletal component for intravenously injected alkaline earth (Sae) radionuclides; comparisons are made to similarly defined surface (Sact) values from 239Pu injection studies. The patterns of Sae and Sact distribution throughout the skeleton are similar.« less
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Lin, H-Y; Hwang-Gu, S-L; Gau, S S-F
2015-07-01
Intra-individual variability in reaction time (IIV-RT), defined by standard deviation of RT (RTSD), is considered as an endophenotype for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Ex-Gaussian distributions of RT, rather than RTSD, could better characterize moment-to-moment fluctuations in neuropsychological performance. However, data of response variability based on ex-Gaussian parameters as an endophenotypic candidate for ADHD are lacking. We assessed 411 adolescents with clinically diagnosed ADHD based on the DSM-IV-TR criteria as probands, 138 unaffected siblings, and 138 healthy controls. The output parameters, mu, sigma, and tau, of an ex-Gaussian RT distribution were derived from the Conners' continuous performance test. Multi-level models controlling for sex, age, comorbidity, and use of methylphenidate were applied. Compared with unaffected siblings and controls, ADHD probands had elevated sigma value, omissions, commissions, and mean RT. Unaffected siblings formed an intermediate group in-between probands and controls in terms of tau value and RTSD. There was no between-group difference in mu value. Conforming to a context-dependent nature, unaffected siblings still had an intermediate tau value in-between probands and controls across different interstimulus intervals. Our findings suggest IIV-RT represented by tau may be a potential endophenotype for inquiry into genetic underpinnings of ADHD in the context of heterogeneity. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Trypanosomes, fleas and field voles: ecological dynamics of a host-vector--parasite interaction.
Smith, A; Telfer, S; Burthe, S; Bennett, M; Begon, M
2005-09-01
To investigate the prevalence of a flea-borne protozoan (Trypanosoma (Herpetosoma) microti) in its field vole (Microtus agrestis) host, we monitored over a 2-year period a range of intrinsic and extrinsic parameters pertaining to host demographics, infection status and vector (flea) prevalence. Generalized Linear Mixed Modelling was used to analyse patterns of both flea and trypanosome occurrence. Overall, males of all sizes and ages were more likely to be infested with fleas than their female counterparts. Flea prevalence also showed direct density dependence during the winter, but patterns of density dependence varied amongst body mass (age) classes during the summer. Trypanosome prevalence did not vary between the sexes but was positively related to past flea prevalence with a lag of 3 months, with the highest levels occurring during the autumn season. A convex age-prevalence distribution was observed, suggesting that individuals develop a degree of immunity to trypanosome infection with age and exposure. An interaction between age and whether the individual was new or recaptured suggested that infected animals are less likely to become territory holders than their uninfected counterparts.
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Robert, Kylie A; Brunet-Rossinni, Anja; Bronikowski, Anne M
2007-06-01
We test the 'free radical theory of aging' using six species of colubrid snakes (numerous, widely distributed, non-venomous snakes of the family Colubridae) that exhibit long (> 15 years) or short (< 10 years) lifespans. Because the 'rate of living theory' predicts metabolic rates to be correlated with rates of aging and oxidative damage results from normal metabolic processes we sought to answer whether physiological parameters and locomotor performance (which is a good predictor of survival in juvenile snakes) mirrored the evolution of lifespans in these colubrid snakes. We measured whole animal metabolic rate (oxygen consumption Vo2), locomotor performance, cellular metabolic rate (mitochondrial oxygen consumption), and oxidative stress potential (hydrogen peroxide production by mitochondria). Longer-lived colubrid snakes have greater locomotor performance and reduced hydrogen peroxide production than short-lived species, while whole animal metabolic rates and mitochondrial efficiency did not differ with lifespan. We present the first measures testing the 'free radical theory of aging' using reptilian species as model organisms. Using reptiles with different lifespans as model organisms should provide greater insight into mechanisms of aging.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kelleher, Christa; McGlynn, Brian; Wagener, Thorsten
2017-07-01
Distributed catchment models are widely used tools for predicting hydrologic behavior. While distributed models require many parameters to describe a system, they are expected to simulate behavior that is more consistent with observed processes. However, obtaining a single set of acceptable parameters can be problematic, as parameter equifinality often results in several
behavioral
sets that fit observations (typically streamflow). In this study, we investigate the extent to which equifinality impacts a typical distributed modeling application. We outline a hierarchical approach to reduce the number of behavioral sets based on regional, observation-driven, and expert-knowledge-based constraints. For our application, we explore how each of these constraint classes reduced the number ofbehavioral
parameter sets and altered distributions of spatiotemporal simulations, simulating a well-studied headwater catchment, Stringer Creek, Montana, using the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM). As a demonstrative exercise, we investigated model performance across 10 000 parameter sets. Constraints on regional signatures, the hydrograph, and two internal measurements of snow water equivalent time series reduced the number of behavioral parameter sets but still left a small number with similar goodness of fit. This subset was ultimately further reduced by incorporating pattern expectations of groundwater table depth across the catchment. Our results suggest that utilizing a hierarchical approach based on regional datasets, observations, and expert knowledge to identify behavioral parameter sets can reduce equifinality and bolster more careful application and simulation of spatiotemporal processes via distributed modeling at the catchment scale. -
Chen, Ying; Lin, Li
2017-07-01
Preeclampsia is a relatively common complication of pregnancy and considered to be associated with different degrees of coagulation dysfunction. This study was developed to evaluate the potential value of coagulation parameters for suggesting preeclampsia during the third trimester of pregnancy. Data from 188 healthy pregnant women, 125 patients with preeclampsia in the third trimester and 120 age-matched nonpregnant women were analyzed. Prothrombin time, prothrombin activity, activated partial thromboplastin time, fibrinogen (Fg), antithrombin, platelet count, mean platelet volume, platelet distribution width and plateletcrit were tested. All parameters, excluding prothrombin time, platelet distribution width and plateletcrit, differed significantly between healthy pregnant women and those with preeclampsia. Platelet count, antithrombin and Fg were significantly lower and mean platelet volume and prothrombin activity were significantly higher in patients with preeclampsia (P < 0.001). Among these parameters, the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for preeclampsia was 0.872 for Fg with an optimal cutoff value of ≤2.87g/L (sensitivity = 0.68 and specificity = 0.98). For severe preeclampsia, the area under the curve for Fg reached up to 0.922 with the same optimal cutoff value (sensitivity = 0.84, specificity = 0.98, positive predictive value = 0.96 and negative predictive value = 0.93). Fg is a biomarker suggestive of preeclampsia in the third trimester of pregnancy, and our data provide a potential cutoff value of Fg ≤ 2.87g/L for screening preeclampsia, especially severe preeclampsia. Copyright © 2017 Southern Society for Clinical Investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Y.; Li, J.; Xu, H.
2015-10-01
Physically based distributed hydrological models discrete the terrain of the whole catchment into a number of grid cells at fine resolution, and assimilate different terrain data and precipitation to different cells, and are regarded to have the potential to improve the catchment hydrological processes simulation and prediction capability. In the early stage, physically based distributed hydrological models are assumed to derive model parameters from the terrain properties directly, so there is no need to calibrate model parameters, but unfortunately, the uncertanties associated with this model parameter deriving is very high, which impacted their application in flood forecasting, so parameter optimization may also be necessary. There are two main purposes for this study, the first is to propose a parameter optimization method for physically based distributed hydrological models in catchment flood forecasting by using PSO algorithm and to test its competence and to improve its performances, the second is to explore the possibility of improving physically based distributed hydrological models capability in cathcment flood forecasting by parameter optimization. In this paper, based on the scalar concept, a general framework for parameter optimization of the PBDHMs for catchment flood forecasting is first proposed that could be used for all PBDHMs. Then, with Liuxihe model as the study model, which is a physically based distributed hydrological model proposed for catchment flood forecasting, the improverd Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is developed for the parameter optimization of Liuxihe model in catchment flood forecasting, the improvements include to adopt the linear decreasing inertia weight strategy to change the inertia weight, and the arccosine function strategy to adjust the acceleration coefficients. This method has been tested in two catchments in southern China with different sizes, and the results show that the improved PSO algorithm could be used for Liuxihe model parameter optimization effectively, and could improve the model capability largely in catchment flood forecasting, thus proven that parameter optimization is necessary to improve the flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological model. It also has been found that the appropriate particle number and the maximum evolution number of PSO algorithm used for Liuxihe model catchment flood forcasting is 20 and 30, respectively.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr
In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less
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LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF COSMIC VOIDS IN SIMULATIONS AND MOCKS
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Russell, E.; Pycke, J.-R., E-mail: er111@nyu.edu, E-mail: jrp15@nyu.edu
2017-01-20
Following up on previous studies, we complete here a full analysis of the void size distributions of the Cosmic Void Catalog based on three different simulation and mock catalogs: dark matter (DM), haloes, and galaxies. Based on this analysis, we attempt to answer two questions: Is a three-parameter log-normal distribution a good candidate to satisfy the void size distributions obtained from different types of environments? Is there a direct relation between the shape parameters of the void size distribution and the environmental effects? In an attempt to answer these questions, we find here that all void size distributions of thesemore » data samples satisfy the three-parameter log-normal distribution whether the environment is dominated by DM, haloes, or galaxies. In addition, the shape parameters of the three-parameter log-normal void size distribution seem highly affected by environment, particularly existing substructures. Therefore, we show two quantitative relations given by linear equations between the skewness and the maximum tree depth, and between the variance of the void size distribution and the maximum tree depth, directly from the simulated data. In addition to this, we find that the percentage of voids with nonzero central density in the data sets has a critical importance. If the number of voids with nonzero central density reaches ≥3.84% in a simulation/mock sample, then a second population is observed in the void size distributions. This second population emerges as a second peak in the log-normal void size distribution at larger radius.« less
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Echocardiographic chamber quantification in a healthy Dutch population.
van Grootel, R W J; Menting, M E; McGhie, J; Roos-Hesselink, J W; van den Bosch, A E
2017-12-01
For accurate interpretation of echocardiographic measurements normative data are required, which are provided by guidelines. For this article, the hypothesis was that these cannot be extrapolated to the Dutch population, since in Dutch clinical practice often higher values are found, which may not be pathological but physiological. Therefore this study aimed to 1) obtain and propose normative values for cardiac chamber quantification in a healthy Dutch population and 2) determine influences of baseline characteristics on these measurements. Prospectively recruited healthy subjects, aged 20-72 years (at least 28 subjects per age decade, equally distributed for gender) underwent physical examination and 2D and 3D echocardiography. Both ventricles and atria were assessed and volumes were calculated. 147 subjects were included (age 44 ± 14 years, 50% female). Overall, feasibility was good for both linear and volumetric measurements. Linear and volumetric parameters were consistently higher than current guidelines recommend, while functional parameters were in line with the guidelines. This was more so in the older population. 3D volumes were higher than 2D volumes. Gender dependency was seen in all body surface area (BSA) corrected volumes and with increasing age, ejection fractions decreased. This study provides 2D and 3D echocardiographic reference ranges for both ventricles and atria derived from a healthy Dutch population. BSA indexed volumes are gender-dependent, age did not influence ventricular volumes and a rise in blood pressure was independently associated with increased right ventricular volumes. The higher volumes found may be indicative for the Dutch population being the tallest in the world.
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Yilmaz, Omer Hinc; Karakulak, Ugur Nadir; Tutkun, Engin; Bal, Ceylan; Gunduzoz, Meside; Ercan Onay, Emine; Ayturk, Mehmet; Tek Ozturk, Mujgan; Alaguney, Mehmet Erdem
The aim of this study was to assess exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) indices in mercury-exposed individuals when evaluating their cardiac autonomic function. Twenty-eight mercury-exposed individuals and 28 healthy controls were enrolled. All the subjects underwent exercise testing and transthoracic echocardiography. The HRR indices were calculated by subtracting the first- (HRR1), second- (HRR2) and third-minute (HRR3) heart rates from the maximal heart rate. The two groups were evaluated in terms of exercise test parameters, especially HRR, and a correlation analysis was performed between blood, 24-hour urine and hair mercury levels and the test parameters. The mercury-exposed and control groups were similar in age (37.2 ± 6.6 vs. 36.9 ± 9.0 years), had an identical gender distribution (16 females and 12 males) and similar left ventricular ejection fractions (65.5 ± 3.1 vs. 65.4 ± 3.1%). The mean HRR1 [25.6 ± 6.5 vs. 30.3 ± 8.2 beats per min (bpm); p = 0.009], HRR2 (43.5 ± 5.3 vs. 47.8 ± 5.5 bpm; p = 0.010) and HRR3 (56.8 ± 5.1 vs. 59.4 ± 6.3 bpm; p = 0.016) values were significantly lower in the mercury-exposed group than in the healthy controls. However, there were no significant correlations between blood, urine and hair mercury levels and exercise test parameters. Mercury-exposed individuals had lower HRR indices than normal subjects. In these individuals, mercury exposure measurements did not show correlations with the exercise test parameters, but age did show a negative correlation with these parameters. Therefore, cardiac autonomic functions might be involved in cases of mercury exposure. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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Distributed traffic signal control using fuzzy logic
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chiu, Stephen
1992-01-01
We present a distributed approach to traffic signal control, where the signal timing parameters at a given intersection are adjusted as functions of the local traffic condition and of the signal timing parameters at adjacent intersections. Thus, the signal timing parameters evolve dynamically using only local information to improve traffic flow. This distributed approach provides for a fault-tolerant, highly responsive traffic management system. The signal timing at an intersection is defined by three parameters: cycle time, phase split, and offset. We use fuzzy decision rules to adjust these three parameters based only on local information. The amount of change in the timing parameters during each cycle is limited to a small fraction of the current parameters to ensure smooth transition. We show the effectiveness of this method through simulation of the traffic flow in a network of controlled intersections.
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Geological Evidence for Recent Ice Ages on Mars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Head, J. W.; Mustard, J. F.; Kreslavsky, M. A.; Milliken, R. E.; Marchant, D. R.
2003-12-01
A primary cause of ice ages on Earth is orbital forcing from variations in orbital parameters of the planet. On Mars such variations are known to be much more extreme. Recent exploration of Mars has revealed abundant water ice in the near-surface at high latitudes in both hemispheres. We outline evidence that these near-surface, water-ice rich mantling deposits represent a mixture of ice and dust that is layered, meters thick, and latitude dependent. These units were formed during a geologically recent major martian ice age, and were emplaced in response to the changing stability of water ice and dust on the surface during variations in orbital parameters. Evidence for these units include a smoothing of topography at subkilometer baselines from about 30o north and south latitudes to the poles, a distinctive dissected texture in MOC images in the +/-30o-60o latitude band, latitude-dependent sets of topographic characteristics and morphologic features (e.g., polygons, 'basketball' terrain texture, gullies, viscous flow features), and hydrogen concentrations consistent with the presence of abundant ice at shallow depths above 60o latitude. The most equatorward extent of these ice-rich deposits was emplaced down to latitudes equivalent to Saudi Arabia and the southern United States on Earth during the last major martian ice age, probably about 0.4-2.1 million years ago. Mars is currently in an inter-ice age period and the ice-rich deposits are presently undergoing reworking, degradation and retreat in response to the current stability relations of near-surface ice. Unlike Earth, martian ice ages are characterized by warmer climates in the polar regions and the enhanced role of atmospheric water ice and dust transport and deposition to produce widespread and relatively evenly distributed smooth deposits at mid-latitudes during obliquity maxima.
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Fundamental Parameters Of The Lowest Mass Stars To The Highest Mass Planets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Filippazzo, Joseph C.
2016-09-01
The physical and atmospheric properties of ultracool dwarfs are deeply entangled due to the degenerate effects of mass, age, metallicity, clouds and dust, activity, rotation, and possibly even formation mechanism on observed spectra. Accurate determination of funda- mental parameters for a wide diversity of objects at the low end of the initial mass function (IMF) is thus crucial to testing stellar and planetary formation theories. To determine these quantities, we constructed and flux calibrated nearly-complete spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for 234 M, L, T, and Y dwarfs using published parallaxes and (0.3-40 \\mu m) spectra and photometry. From these homogeneous SEDs, we calculated bolometric luminosity ((L_\\text{bol})), effective temperature ((T_\\text{off})), mass, surface gravity, radius, spectral indexes, synthetic photometry, and bolometric corrections (BCs) for each object. We used these results to derive (L_\\text{bol}), (T_\\text{eff}), and BC polynomial relations across the entire very-low-mass star/brown dwarf/planetary mass regime. We use a subsample of objects with age constraints based on nearby young moving group membership, companionship with a young star, or spectral signatures of low surface gravity to define new age-sensitive diagnostics and characterize the reddening of young substellar atmospheres as a redistribution of flux from the near-infrared (NIR) into the mid-infrared (MIR). Consequently we find the SED flux pivots at K-band, making BCK as a function of spectral type a reliable, age-independent relationship. We find that young L dwarfs are systematically 300 K cooler than field age objects of the same spectral type and up to 600 K cooler than field age objects of the same absolute H magnitude. These findings are used to create prescriptions for the reliable and efficient characterization of new ultracool dwarfs using heterogeneous and limited spectral data.
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Measuring skin aging using optical coherence tomography in vivo: a validation study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trojahn, Carina; Dobos, Gabor; Richter, Claudia; Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan
2015-04-01
Dermal and epidermal structures in human skin change during intrinsic and extrinsic aging. Epidermal thickness is one of the most often reported parameters for the assessment of skin aging in cross-sectional images captured by optical coherence tomography (OCT). We aimed to identify further parameters for the noninvasive measurement of skin aging of sun-exposed and sun-protected areas utilizing OCT. Based on a literature review, seven parameters were inductively developed. Three independent raters assessed these parameters using four-point scales on images of female subjects of two age groups. All items could be detected and quantified in our sample. Interrater agreement ranged between 25.0% and 83.3%. The item scores "stratum corneum reflectivity," "upper dermal reflectivity," and "dermoepidermal contrast" showed significant differences between age groups on the volar and dorsal forearm indicating that they were best able to measure changes during skin aging. "Surface unevenness" was associated with the skin roughness parameters, Rz and Rmax, on the inner upper arm and volar forearm supporting the criterion validity of this parameter on sun-protected skin areas. Based on the interrater agreement and the ability to differentiate between age groups, these four parameters are being considered as the best candidates for measuring skin aging in OCT images.
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Measuring skin aging using optical coherence tomography in vivo: a validation study.
Trojahn, Carina; Dobos, Gabor; Richter, Claudia; Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan
2015-04-01
Dermal and epidermal structures in human skin change during intrinsic and extrinsic aging. Epidermal thickness is one of the most often reported parameters for the assessment of skin aging in cross-sectional images captured by optical coherence tomography (OCT). We aimed to identify further parameters for the noninvasive measurement of skin aging of sun-exposed and sun-protected areas utilizing OCT. Based on a literature review, seven parameters were inductively developed. Three independent raters assessed these parameters using four-point scales on images of female subjects of two age groups. All items could be detected and quantified in our sample. Interrater agreement ranged between 25.0% and 83.3%. The item scores “stratum corneum reflectivity,” “upper dermal reflectivity,” and “dermoepidermal contrast” showed significant differences between age groups on the volar and dorsal forearm indicating that they were best able to measure changes during skin aging. “Surface unevenness” was associated with the skin roughness parameters, Rz and Rmax, on the inner upper arm and volar forearm supporting the criterion validity of this parameter on sun-protected skin areas. Based on the interrater agreement and the ability to differentiate between age groups, these four parameters are being considered as the best candidates for measuring skin aging in OCT images.
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Advances in parameter estimation techniques applied to flexible structures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maben, Egbert; Zimmerman, David C.
1994-01-01
In this work, various parameter estimation techniques are investigated in the context of structural system identification utilizing distributed parameter models and 'measured' time-domain data. Distributed parameter models are formulated using the PDEMOD software developed by Taylor. Enhancements made to PDEMOD for this work include the following: (1) a Wittrick-Williams based root solving algorithm; (2) a time simulation capability; and (3) various parameter estimation algorithms. The parameter estimations schemes will be contrasted using the NASA Mini-Mast as the focus structure.
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Application of Statistically Derived CPAS Parachute Parameters
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Romero, Leah M.; Ray, Eric S.
2013-01-01
The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Analysis Team is responsible for determining parachute inflation parameters and dispersions that are ultimately used in verifying system requirements. A model memo is internally released semi-annually documenting parachute inflation and other key parameters reconstructed from flight test data. Dispersion probability distributions published in previous versions of the model memo were uniform because insufficient data were available for determination of statistical based distributions. Uniform distributions do not accurately represent the expected distributions since extreme parameter values are just as likely to occur as the nominal value. CPAS has taken incremental steps to move away from uniform distributions. Model Memo version 9 (MMv9) made the first use of non-uniform dispersions, but only for the reefing cutter timing, for which a large number of sample was available. In order to maximize the utility of the available flight test data, clusters of parachutes were reconstructed individually starting with Model Memo version 10. This allowed for statistical assessment for steady-state drag area (CDS) and parachute inflation parameters such as the canopy fill distance (n), profile shape exponent (expopen), over-inflation factor (C(sub k)), and ramp-down time (t(sub k)) distributions. Built-in MATLAB distributions were applied to the histograms, and parameters such as scale (sigma) and location (mu) were output. Engineering judgment was used to determine the "best fit" distribution based on the test data. Results include normal, log normal, and uniform (where available data remains insufficient) fits of nominal and failure (loss of parachute and skipped stage) cases for all CPAS parachutes. This paper discusses the uniform methodology that was previously used, the process and result of the statistical assessment, how the dispersions were incorporated into Monte Carlo analyses, and the application of the distributions in trajectory benchmark testing assessments with parachute inflation parameters, drag area, and reefing cutter timing used by CPAS.
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Gilliom, Robert J.; Helsel, Dennis R.
1986-01-01
A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.
1986-02-01
A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensoredmore » observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data det. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.« less
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Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace-level water-quality data
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.
1984-01-01
A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water-sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations,more » for determining the best-performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least-squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification. 6 figs., 6 tabs.« less
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On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments
Olea, R.A.
2011-01-01
The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. The beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geology (outside the USA).
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Determination of material distribution in heading process of small bimetallic bar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Presz, Wojciech; Cacko, Robert
2018-05-01
The electrical connectors mostly have silver contacts joined by riveting. In order to reduce costs, the core of the contact rivet can be replaced with cheaper material, e.g. copper. There is a wide range of commercially available bimetallic (silver-copper) rivets on the market for the production of contacts. Following that, new conditions in the riveting process are created because the bi-metal object is riveted. In the analyzed example, it is a small size object, which can be placed on the border of microforming. Based on the FEM modeling of the load process of bimetallic rivets with different material distributions, the desired distribution was chosen and the choice was justified. Possible material distributions were parameterized with two parameters referring to desirable distribution characteristics. The parameter: Coefficient of Mutual Interactions of Plastic Deformations and the method of its determination have been proposed. The parameter is determined based of two-parameter stress-strain curves and is a function of these parameters and the range of equivalent strains occurring in the analyzed process. The proposed method was used for the upsetting process of the bimetallic head of the electrical contact. A nomogram was established to predict the distribution of materials in the head of the rivet and the appropriate selection of a pair of materials to achieve the desired distribution.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.
2017-12-01
We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice sheet volume). Continual surrogate refinement guarantees asymptotic sampling from the predictive distribution. Directly characterizing the predictive distribution in this way allows us to assess the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate variability and change.
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Houghton, J.C.
1988-01-01
The truncated shifted Pareto (TSP) distribution, a variant of the two-parameter Pareto distribution, in which one parameter is added to shift the distribution right and left and the right-hand side is truncated, is used to model size distributions of oil and gas fields for resource assessment. Assumptions about limits to the left-hand and right-hand side reduce the number of parameters to two. The TSP distribution has advantages over the more customary lognormal distribution because it has a simple analytic expression, allowing exact computation of several statistics of interest, has a "J-shape," and has more flexibility in the thickness of the right-hand tail. Oil field sizes from the Minnelusa play in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming and Montana, are used as a case study. Probability plotting procedures allow easy visualization of the fit and help the assessment. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
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A Parameter Communication Optimization Strategy for Distributed Machine Learning in Sensors.
Zhang, Jilin; Tu, Hangdi; Ren, Yongjian; Wan, Jian; Zhou, Li; Li, Mingwei; Wang, Jue; Yu, Lifeng; Zhao, Chang; Zhang, Lei
2017-09-21
In order to utilize the distributed characteristic of sensors, distributed machine learning has become the mainstream approach, but the different computing capability of sensors and network delays greatly influence the accuracy and the convergence rate of the machine learning model. Our paper describes a reasonable parameter communication optimization strategy to balance the training overhead and the communication overhead. We extend the fault tolerance of iterative-convergent machine learning algorithms and propose the Dynamic Finite Fault Tolerance (DFFT). Based on the DFFT, we implement a parameter communication optimization strategy for distributed machine learning, named Dynamic Synchronous Parallel Strategy (DSP), which uses the performance monitoring model to dynamically adjust the parameter synchronization strategy between worker nodes and the Parameter Server (PS). This strategy makes full use of the computing power of each sensor, ensures the accuracy of the machine learning model, and avoids the situation that the model training is disturbed by any tasks unrelated to the sensors.
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Population pharmacokinetics of valnemulin in swine.
Zhao, D H; Zhang, Z; Zhang, C Y; Liu, Z C; Deng, H; Yu, J J; Guo, J P; Liu, Y H
2014-02-01
This study was carried out in 121 pigs to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model by oral (p.o.) administration of valnemulin at a single dose of 10 mg/kg. Serum biochemistry parameters of each pig were determined prior to drug administration. Three to five blood samples were collected at random time points, but uniformly distributed in the absorption, distribution, and elimination phases of drug disposition. Plasma concentrations of valnemulin were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). The concentration-time data were fitted to PPK models using nonlinear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM) with G77 FORTRAN compiler. NONMEM runs were executed using Wings for NONMEM. Fixed effects of weight, age, sex as well as biochemistry parameters, which may influence the PK of valnemulin, were investigated. The drug concentration-time data were adequately described by a one-compartmental model with first-order absorption. A random effect model of valnemulin revealed a pattern of log-normal distribution, and it satisfactorily characterized the observed interindividual variability. The distribution of random residual errors, however, suggested an additive model for the initial phase (<12 h) followed by a combined model that consists of both proportional and additive features (≥ 12 h), so that the intra-individual variability could be sufficiently characterized. Covariate analysis indicated that body weight had a conspicuous effect on valnemulin clearance (CL/F). The featured population PK values of Ka , V/F and CL/F were 0.292/h, 63.0 L and 41.3 L/h, respectively. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Poza-Lujan, Jose-Luis; Posadas-Yagüe, Juan-Luis; Simó-Ten, José-Enrique; Simarro, Raúl; Benet, Ginés
2015-02-25
This paper is part of a study of intelligent architectures for distributed control and communications systems. The study focuses on optimizing control systems by evaluating the performance of middleware through quality of service (QoS) parameters and the optimization of control using Quality of Control (QoC) parameters. The main aim of this work is to study, design, develop, and evaluate a distributed control architecture based on the Data-Distribution Service for Real-Time Systems (DDS) communication standard as proposed by the Object Management Group (OMG). As a result of the study, an architecture called Frame-Sensor-Adapter to Control (FSACtrl) has been developed. FSACtrl provides a model to implement an intelligent distributed Event-Based Control (EBC) system with support to measure QoS and QoC parameters. The novelty consists of using, simultaneously, the measured QoS and QoC parameters to make decisions about the control action with a new method called Event Based Quality Integral Cycle. To validate the architecture, the first five Braitenberg vehicles have been implemented using the FSACtrl architecture. The experimental outcomes, demonstrate the convenience of using jointly QoS and QoC parameters in distributed control systems.
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Poza-Lujan, Jose-Luis; Posadas-Yagüe, Juan-Luis; Simó-Ten, José-Enrique; Simarro, Raúl; Benet, Ginés
2015-01-01
This paper is part of a study of intelligent architectures for distributed control and communications systems. The study focuses on optimizing control systems by evaluating the performance of middleware through quality of service (QoS) parameters and the optimization of control using Quality of Control (QoC) parameters. The main aim of this work is to study, design, develop, and evaluate a distributed control architecture based on the Data-Distribution Service for Real-Time Systems (DDS) communication standard as proposed by the Object Management Group (OMG). As a result of the study, an architecture called Frame-Sensor-Adapter to Control (FSACtrl) has been developed. FSACtrl provides a model to implement an intelligent distributed Event-Based Control (EBC) system with support to measure QoS and QoC parameters. The novelty consists of using, simultaneously, the measured QoS and QoC parameters to make decisions about the control action with a new method called Event Based Quality Integral Cycle. To validate the architecture, the first five Braitenberg vehicles have been implemented using the FSACtrl architecture. The experimental outcomes, demonstrate the convenience of using jointly QoS and QoC parameters in distributed control systems. PMID:25723145
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Periyasamy, R; Mishra, A; Anand, Sneh; Ammini, A C
2011-09-01
Women and men are anatomically and physiologically different in a number of ways. They differ in both shape and size. These differences could potentially mean foot pressure distribution variation in men and women. The purpose of this study was to analyze standing foot pressure image to obtain the foot pressure distribution parameter - power ratio variation between men and women using image processing in frequency domain. We examined 28 healthy adult subjects (14 men and 14 women) aged between 20 and 45 years was recruited for our study. Foot pressure distribution patterns while standing are obtained by using a PedoPowerGraph plantar pressure measurement system for foot image formation, a digital camera for image capturing, a TV tuner PC-add on card, a WinDvr software for still capture and Matlab software with dedicated image processing algorithms have been developed. Various PedoPowerGraphic parameters such as percentage medial impulse (PMI), fore foot to hind foot pressure distribution ratio (F/H), big toe to fore foot pressure distribution ratio (B/F) and power ratio (PR) were evaluated. In men, contact area was significantly larger in all regions of the foot compared with women. There were significant differences in plantar pressure distribution but there was no significant difference in F/H and B/F ratio. Mean PR value was significantly greater in men than women under the hind foot and fore foot. PMI value was greater in women than men. As compared to men, women have maximum PR variations in the mid foot. Hence there is significant difference at level p<0.05 in medial mid foot and mid foot PR of women as compared to men. There was variation in plantar pressure distribution because the contact area of the men foot was larger than that of women foot. Hence knowledge of pressure distributions variation of both feet can provide suitable guidelines to biomedical engineers and doctor for designing orthotic devices for reliving the area of excessively high pressure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The Global Signature of Ocean Wave Spectra
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Portilla-Yandún, Jesús
2018-01-01
A global atlas of ocean wave spectra is developed and presented. The development is based on a new technique for deriving wave spectral statistics, which is applied to the extensive ERA-Interim database from European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Spectral statistics is based on the idea of long-term wave systems, which are unique and distinct at every geographical point. The identification of those wave systems allows their separation from the overall spectrum using the partition technique. Their further characterization is made using standard integrated parameters, which turn out much more meaningful when applied to the individual components than to the total spectrum. The parameters developed include the density distribution of spectral partitions, which is the main descriptor; the identified wave systems; the individual distribution of the characteristic frequencies, directions, wave height, wave age, seasonal variability of wind and waves; return periods derived from extreme value analysis; and crossing-sea probabilities. This information is made available in web format for public use at http://www.modemat.epn.edu.ec/#/nereo. It is found that wave spectral statistics offers the possibility to synthesize data while providing a direct and comprehensive view of the local and regional wave conditions.
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Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Krantz, Timothy L.
2005-01-01
A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.
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Rotational velocities of A-type stars. IV. Evolution of rotational velocities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zorec, J.; Royer, F.
2012-01-01
Context. In previous works of this series, we have shown that late B- and early A-type stars have genuine bimodal distributions of rotational velocities and that late A-type stars lack slow rotators. The distributions of the surface angular velocity ratio Ω/Ωcrit (Ωcrit is the critical angular velocity) have peculiar shapes according to spectral type groups, which can be caused by evolutionary properties. Aims: We aim to review the properties of these rotational velocity distributions in some detail as a function of stellar mass and age. Methods: We have gathered vsini for a sample of 2014 B6- to F2-type stars. We have determined the masses and ages for these objects with stellar evolution models. The (Teff,log L/L⊙)-parameters were determined from the uvby-β photometry and the HIPPARCOS parallaxes. Results: The velocity distributions show two regimes that depend on the stellar mass. Stars less massive than 2.5 M⊙ have a unimodal equatorial velocity distribution and show a monotonical acceleration with age on the main sequence (MS). Stars more massive have a bimodal equatorial velocity distribution. Contrarily to theoretical predictions, the equatorial velocities of stars from about 1.7 M⊙ to 3.2 M⊙ undergo a strong acceleration in the first third of the MS evolutionary phase, while in the last third of the MS they evolve roughly as if there were no angular momentum redistribution in the external stellar layers. The studied stars might start in the ZAMS not necessarily as rigid rotators, but with a total angular momentum lower than the critical one of rigid rotators. The stars seem to evolve as differential rotators all the way of their MS life span and the variation of the observed rotational velocities proceeds with characteristic time scales δt ≈ 0.2 tMS, where tMS is the time spent by a star in the MS. Full Table 1 is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/537/A120Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
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Young Blue Straggler Stars in the Galactic Field
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ekanayake, Gemunu; Wilhelm, Ronald
2018-06-01
In this study we present an analysis of a sample of field blue straggler (BS) stars that show high ultra violet emission in their spectral energy distributions (SED): indication of a hot white dwarf (WD) companion to BS. Using photometry available in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX ) surveys we identified 80 stars with UV excess. To determine the parameter distributions (mass, temperature and age) of the WD companions, we developed a fitting routine that could fit binary model SEDs to the observed SED. Results from this fit indicate the need for a hot WD companion to provide the excess UV flux. The WD mass distribution peaks at ˜0.4 M⊙, suggesting the primary formation channel of field BSs is case B mass transfer, i.e. when the donor star is in red giant phase of its evolution. Based on stellar evolutionary models, we estimate the lower limit of the binary mass transfer efficiency to be β ˜ 0.5.
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Diano, Danila; Ponti, Federico; Guerri, Sara; Mercatelli, Daniele; Amadori, Michele; Aparisi Gómez, Maria Pilar; Battista, Giuseppe; Guglielmi, Giuseppe; Bazzocchi, Alberto
2017-09-18
The detection of changes in lean mass (LM) distribution can help to prevent disability. This study assessed the degree of association between anthropometric measurements and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) body composition (BC) parameters of the upper and lower limbs in a healthy general population and collected DXA age- and sex-specific values of BC that can be useful to build a reference standard. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the reliability of some widely available anthropometric measurements in the assessment of body composition (BC) at the limbs, especially in terms of muscle mass, in a large sample of healthy subjects of different age bands and sex, using fat mass (FM) and lean mass (LM) parameters derived by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as the gold standard. The secondary aim was to collect DXA age- and sex-specific values of BC of left and right limbs (upper and lower) in a healthy Italian population to be used as reference standards. Two hundred fifty healthy volunteers were enrolled. Arm circumference (AC) and thigh circumference (ThC) were measured, and total and regional BC parameters were obtained by a whole-body DXA scan (Lunar iDXA, Madison, WI, USA; enCORE™ 2011 software version 13.6). FM/LM showed only fair correlation with AC and ThC in females (r = 0.649 and 0.532, respectively); in males and in the total population, the correlation was low (r = 0.360 or lower, and p non-statistically significant). AC and ThC were not well representative of arms LM in both genders (females r = 0.452, males r = 0.530) independently of age. In general, men of all age groups showed higher values of LM and lean mass index (LMI) in both total and segmental upper and lower limbs. In males, the maximum LM and LMI were achieved in the fifth decade in both upper and lower limbs and then started to decrease with aging. In females, no significant modification with aging was identified in LM and LMI. According to our results, anthropometry is not well representative of LM of arms in both genders, independently of age; therefore, a densitometric examination should be considered for a correct assessment of BC at limbs.
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Anorexia Nervosa: Analysis of Trabecular Texture with CT
Tabari, Azadeh; Torriani, Martin; Miller, Karen K.; Klibanski, Anne; Kalra, Mannudeep K.
2017-01-01
Purpose To determine indexes of skeletal integrity by using computed tomographic (CT) trabecular texture analysis of the lumbar spine in patients with anorexia nervosa and normal-weight control subjects and to determine body composition predictors of trabecular texture. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional study was approved by the institutional review board and compliant with HIPAA. Written informed consent was obtained. The study included 30 women with anorexia nervosa (mean age ± standard deviation, 26 years ± 6) and 30 normal-weight age-matched women (control group). All participants underwent low-dose single-section quantitative CT of the L4 vertebral body with use of a calibration phantom. Trabecular texture analysis was performed by using software. Skewness (asymmetry of gray-level pixel distribution), kurtosis (pointiness of pixel distribution), entropy (inhomogeneity of pixel distribution), and mean value of positive pixels (MPP) were assessed. Bone mineral density and abdominal fat and paraspinal muscle areas were quantified with quantitative CT. Women with anorexia nervosa and normal-weight control subjects were compared by using the Student t test. Linear regression analyses were performed to determine associations between trabecular texture and body composition. Results Women with anorexia nervosa had higher skewness and kurtosis, lower MPP (P < .001), and a trend toward lower entropy (P = .07) compared with control subjects. Bone mineral density, abdominal fat area, and paraspinal muscle area were inversely associated with skewness and kurtosis and positively associated with MPP and entropy. Texture parameters, but not bone mineral density, were associated with lowest lifetime weight and duration of amenorrhea in anorexia nervosa. Conclusion Patients with anorexia nervosa had increased skewness and kurtosis and decreased entropy and MPP compared with normal-weight control subjects. These parameters were associated with lowest lifetime weight and duration of amenorrhea, but there were no such associations with bone mineral density. These findings suggest that trabecular texture analysis might contribute information about bone health in anorexia nervosa that is independent of that provided with bone mineral density. © RSNA, 2016 PMID:27797678
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Anorexia Nervosa: Analysis of Trabecular Texture with CT.
Tabari, Azadeh; Torriani, Martin; Miller, Karen K; Klibanski, Anne; Kalra, Mannudeep K; Bredella, Miriam A
2017-04-01
Purpose To determine indexes of skeletal integrity by using computed tomographic (CT) trabecular texture analysis of the lumbar spine in patients with anorexia nervosa and normal-weight control subjects and to determine body composition predictors of trabecular texture. Materials and Methods This cross-sectional study was approved by the institutional review board and compliant with HIPAA. Written informed consent was obtained. The study included 30 women with anorexia nervosa (mean age ± standard deviation, 26 years ± 6) and 30 normal-weight age-matched women (control group). All participants underwent low-dose single-section quantitative CT of the L4 vertebral body with use of a calibration phantom. Trabecular texture analysis was performed by using software. Skewness (asymmetry of gray-level pixel distribution), kurtosis (pointiness of pixel distribution), entropy (inhomogeneity of pixel distribution), and mean value of positive pixels (MPP) were assessed. Bone mineral density and abdominal fat and paraspinal muscle areas were quantified with quantitative CT. Women with anorexia nervosa and normal-weight control subjects were compared by using the Student t test. Linear regression analyses were performed to determine associations between trabecular texture and body composition. Results Women with anorexia nervosa had higher skewness and kurtosis, lower MPP (P < .001), and a trend toward lower entropy (P = .07) compared with control subjects. Bone mineral density, abdominal fat area, and paraspinal muscle area were inversely associated with skewness and kurtosis and positively associated with MPP and entropy. Texture parameters, but not bone mineral density, were associated with lowest lifetime weight and duration of amenorrhea in anorexia nervosa. Conclusion Patients with anorexia nervosa had increased skewness and kurtosis and decreased entropy and MPP compared with normal-weight control subjects. These parameters were associated with lowest lifetime weight and duration of amenorrhea, but there were no such associations with bone mineral density. These findings suggest that trabecular texture analysis might contribute information about bone health in anorexia nervosa that is independent of that provided with bone mineral density. © RSNA, 2016.
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Age of onset of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis: a distribution analysis.
San Giorgi, M R M; van den Heuvel, E R; Tjon Pian Gi, R E A; Brunings, J W; Chirila, M; Friedrich, G; Golusinski, W; Graupp, M; Horcasitas Pous, R A; Ilmarinen, T; Jackowska, J; Koelmel, J C; Ferran Vilà, F; Weichbold, V; Wierzbicka, M; Dikkers, F G
2016-10-01
Distribution of age of onset of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) is generally described to be bimodal, with peaks at approximately 5 years and 30 years. This assumption has never been scientifically confirmed, and authors tend to refer to an article that does not describe distribution. Knowledge of the distribution of age of onset is important for virological and epidemiological comprehension. The objective of this study was to determine the distribution of age of onset of RRP in a large international sample. Cross-sectional distribution analysis. Laryngologists from 12 European hospitals provided information on date of birth and date of onset of all their RRP patients treated between 1998 and 2012. Centers that exclusively treated either patients with juvenile onset RRP or patients with adult onset RRP, or were less accessible for one of these groups, were excluded to prevent skewness. A mixture model was implemented to describe distribution of age of onset. The best fitting model was selected using the Bayesian information criterion. Six hundred and thirty-nine patients were included in the analysis. Age of onset was described by a three component mixture distribution with lognormally distributed components. Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis starts at three median ages 7, 35 and 64 years. Distribution of age of onset of RRP shows three peaks. In addition to the already adopted idea of age peaks at paediatric and adult age, there is an additional peak around the age of 64. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bennett, C.; Crawford, F.; Osborne, A.
1995-02-27
An association has been observed in several independent data sets between late onset Alzheimer`s Disease (AD) and the APOE locus on chromosome 19. We have examined the genotype in family history positive (FHP) and family history negative (FHN) cases and find a distortion of the APOE allele frequencies in accord with previous studies. However, when we examined the allele distribution of the at-risk siblings of the FHP group we found an excess of the {epsilon}4 allele which also differs significantly from historic controls but not from the affected siblings. The age distribution of the affected and unaffected siblings was similar,more » suggesting that the allelic frequency distortion in the unaffected siblings was not due to their being below the mean age of onset. Lod score linkage analysis, with age dependent onset and non-stringent specification of the genetic parameters, did not suggest linkage to the APOE locus. Furthermore, an analysis of variance of the age of disease free survival suggested that APOE genotype contributes a small fraction of the total variance indicating that the APOE locus is a poor predictor of disease free survival age within late onset families. One explanation for the age dependent association reported by other groups, and our results, is that the APOE locus enhances the rate of progression of the disease process in otherwise predisposed individuals and that variation at this locus is not able in and of itself to cause the disease. We suggest this hypothesis is compatible with the current literature regarding APOE and AD. 19 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.« less
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Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Szabo, Aniko
2014-01-01
Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. The study reexamined lower leg postmortem human subjects (PMHS) data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and noninjury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the covariable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike information criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. The mean age, stature, and weight were 58.2±15.1 years, 1.74±0.08 m, and 74.9±13.8 kg, respectively. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other 2 distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-olds at 5, 25, and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45, and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines.
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Mixture distributions of wind speed in the UAE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shin, J.; Ouarda, T.; Lee, T. S.
2013-12-01
Wind speed probability distribution is commonly used to estimate potential wind energy. The 2-parameter Weibull distribution has been most widely used to characterize the distribution of wind speed. However, it is unable to properly model wind speed regimes when wind speed distribution presents bimodal and kurtotic shapes. Several studies have concluded that the Weibull distribution should not be used for frequency analysis of wind speed without investigation of wind speed distribution. Due to these mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed data, the application of mixture distributions should be further investigated in the frequency analysis of wind speed. A number of studies have investigated the potential wind energy in different parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed were detected from some of these studies. Nevertheless, mixture distributions have not been employed for wind speed modeling in the Arabian Peninsula. In order to improve our understanding of wind energy potential in Arabian Peninsula, mixture distributions should be tested for the frequency analysis of wind speed. The aim of the current study is to assess the suitability of mixture distributions for the frequency analysis of wind speed in the UAE. Hourly mean wind speed data at 10-m height from 7 stations were used in the current study. The Weibull and Kappa distributions were employed as representatives of the conventional non-mixture distributions. 10 mixture distributions are used and constructed by mixing four probability distributions such as Normal, Gamma, Weibull and Extreme value type-one (EV-1) distributions. Three parameter estimation methods such as Expectation Maximization algorithm, Least Squares method and Meta-Heuristic Maximum Likelihood (MHML) method were employed to estimate the parameters of the mixture distributions. In order to compare the goodness-of-fit of tested distributions and parameter estimation methods for sample wind data, the adjusted coefficient of determination, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Chi-squared statistics were computed. Results indicate that MHML presents the best performance of parameter estimation for the used mixture distributions. In most of the employed 7 stations, mixture distributions give the best fit. When the wind speed regime shows mixture distributional characteristics, most of these regimes present the kurtotic statistical characteristic. Particularly, applications of mixture distributions for these stations show a significant improvement in explaining the whole wind speed regime. In addition, the Weibull-Weibull mixture distribution presents the best fit for the wind speed data in the UAE.
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Degeling, Koen; IJzerman, Maarten J; Koopman, Miriam; Koffijberg, Hendrik
2017-12-15
Parametric distributions based on individual patient data can be used to represent both stochastic and parameter uncertainty. Although general guidance is available on how parameter uncertainty should be accounted for in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there is no comprehensive guidance on reflecting parameter uncertainty in the (correlated) parameters of distributions used to represent stochastic uncertainty in patient-level models. This study aims to provide this guidance by proposing appropriate methods and illustrating the impact of this uncertainty on modeling outcomes. Two approaches, 1) using non-parametric bootstrapping and 2) using multivariate Normal distributions, were applied in a simulation and case study. The approaches were compared based on point-estimates and distributions of time-to-event and health economic outcomes. To assess sample size impact on the uncertainty in these outcomes, sample size was varied in the simulation study and subgroup analyses were performed for the case-study. Accounting for parameter uncertainty in distributions that reflect stochastic uncertainty substantially increased the uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes, illustrated by larger confidence ellipses surrounding the cost-effectiveness point-estimates and different cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Although both approaches performed similar for larger sample sizes (i.e. n = 500), the second approach was more sensitive to extreme values for small sample sizes (i.e. n = 25), yielding infeasible modeling outcomes. Modelers should be aware that parameter uncertainty in distributions used to describe stochastic uncertainty needs to be reflected in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, as it could substantially impact the total amount of uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes. If feasible, the bootstrap approach is recommended to account for this uncertainty.
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Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound for experimental design in parallel imaging.
Bouhrara, Mustapha; Spencer, Richard G
2018-06-01
The Cramér-Rao lower bound (CRLB) is widely used in the design of magnetic resonance (MR) experiments for parameter estimation. Previous work has considered only Gaussian or Rician noise distributions in this calculation. However, the noise distribution for multi-coil acquisitions, such as in parallel imaging, obeys the noncentral χ-distribution under many circumstances. The purpose of this paper is to present the CRLB calculation for parameter estimation from multi-coil acquisitions. We perform explicit calculations of Fisher matrix elements and the associated CRLB for noise distributions following the noncentral χ-distribution. The special case of diffusion kurtosis is examined as an important example. For comparison with analytic results, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were conducted to evaluate experimental minimum standard deviations (SDs) in the estimation of diffusion kurtosis model parameters. Results were obtained for a range of signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), and for both the conventional case of Gaussian noise distribution and noncentral χ-distribution with different numbers of coils, m. At low-to-moderate SNR, the noncentral χ-distribution deviates substantially from the Gaussian distribution. Our results indicate that this departure is more pronounced for larger values of m. As expected, the minimum SDs (i.e., CRLB) in derived diffusion kurtosis model parameters assuming a noncentral χ-distribution provided a closer match to the MC simulations as compared to the Gaussian results. Estimates of minimum variance for parameter estimation and experimental design provided by the CRLB must account for the noncentral χ-distribution of noise in multi-coil acquisitions, especially in the low-to-moderate SNR regime. Magn Reson Med 79:3249-3255, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.
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Periodontal disease in research beagle dogs--an epidemiological study.
Kortegaard, H E; Eriksen, T; Baelum, V
2008-12-01
To estimate the prevalence and describe the extent and severity of periodontal disease and associated periodontal parameters in beagle dogs. A full-mouth, site-specific examination was performed in 98 beagle dogs. Focus was placed on clinical attachment loss, pocket depth and bleeding on probing. The prevalence of clinical attachment loss greater than equal to 1 mm was 20 per cent in the one-year-old dogs, increasing to 84 per cent of the dogs aged more than three years. The number of sites affected with clinical attachment loss greater than equal to 1 mm showed a skewed distribution. The prevalence of clinical attachment loss greater than equal to 4 mm was only seven per cent. A probing pocket depth of 4+ mm was observed in 44 to 81 per cent of the dogs, depending on age. Also, the distribution of the number of deepened pockets/dog was skewed. The teeth most prone to clinical attachment loss greater than equal to 1 mm were the P2, the P3 and the P4 of the maxilla. The teeth most prone to pocket depth greater than equal to 4 mm were the maxillary canines. Periodontal disease in terms of clinical attachment loss greater than equal to 1 mm and pocket depth greater than equal to 4 mm is common in beagle dogs, but the major disease burden is carried by only a few dogs. The prevalence increases with increased age but is high already at the age of two years.
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Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates
Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.
2013-01-01
The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Crawford, F.; Bennett, C.; Osborne, A.
1994-09-01
An association has been observed in several independent data sets between late onset Alzheimer`s disease (AD) and the APOE locus on chromosomes 19. We have examined the genotype in family history positive (FHP) and family history negative (FHN) cases and find a distortion of the APOE allele frequencies in accord with previous studies. However, when we examined the allele distribution of the at-risk siblings of the FHP group we found an excess of the {epsilon}4 allele which also differs significantly from historic controls but not from the affected siblings. The age distribution of the affected and unaffected siblings was similar,more » suggesting that the allelic frequency distortion in the unaffected siblings was not due to their being below the mean age of onset. Lod score linkage analysis, with age dependent onset and nonstringent specification of the genetic parameters, did not suggest linkage to the APOE locus. Furthermore, an analysis of variance of the age of disease-free survival suggested that APOE genotype contributes a small fraction of the total variance, indicating that the APOE locus is a poor predictor of disease-free survival time within late onset families. We suggest that the APOE locus enhances the rate of progression of the disease in otherwise predisposed individuals and that variation at this locus is not able in and of itself to cause this disease.« less
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fymat, A. L.
1978-01-01
A unifying approach, based on a generalization of Pearson's differential equation of statistical theory, is proposed for both the representation of particulate size distribution and the interpretation of radiometric measurements in terms of this parameter. A single-parameter gamma-type distribution is introduced, and it is shown that inversion can only provide the dimensionless parameter, r/ab (where r = particle radius, a = effective radius, b = effective variance), at least when the distribution vanishes at both ends. The basic inversion problem in reconstructing the particle size distribution is analyzed, and the existing methods are reviewed (with emphasis on their capabilities) and classified. A two-step strategy is proposed for simultaneously determining the complex refractive index and reconstructing the size distribution of atmospheric particulates.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilks, Daniel S.
1993-10-01
Performance of 8 three-parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation data at stations in the northeastern and southeastern United States is investigated. Particular attention is paid to fidelity on the right tail, through use of a bootstrap procedure simulating extrapolation on the right tail beyond the data. It is found that the beta-κ distribution best describes the extreme right tail of annual extreme series, and the beta-P distribution is best for the partial duration data. The conventionally employed two-parameter Gumbel distribution is found to substantially underestimate probabilities associated with the larger precipitation amounts for both annual extreme and partial duration data. Fitting the distributions using left-censored data did not result in improved fits to the right tail.
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2013-01-01
Background The prevalence of obese and overweight patients has increased dramatically worldwide. Both are common risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) as indicated by a diminished estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or microalbuminuria. This study aimed to investigate whether anthropometric parameters [waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and body mass index (BMI)] are associated with renal function in a population-based study of Caucasian subjects. Methods Data from 3749 subjects (1825 women) aged 20 to 81 years from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) were analysed. Renal indices, including the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR), microalbuminuria, eGFR and CKD, were studied. Parameters of anthropometry (WC, WHtR and BMI) were categorised into sex-specific quintiles. Results Analysis of variance (ANOVA) models, adjusting for age, sex, type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension, revealed that a high and low WC or WHtR and low BMI were independently related to a higher uACR. Logistic regression models confirmed these results with respect to uACR and showed that subjects with a high or low WC or a high WHtR had increased odds of microalbuminuria. The ANOVA models revealed no relations of the investigated anthropometric parameters with eGFR. However, subjects with high values for these parameters had increased odds of CKD. Conclusions Our results demonstrate U-shaped associations between markers of central fat distribution and uACR or microalbuminuria in the general population, suggesting that both obese and very thin subjects have a higher risk of renal impairment. PMID:23594567
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Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia
2016-01-01
During peritoneal dialysis (PD), the peritoneal membrane undergoes ageing processes that affect its function. Here we analyzed associations of patient age and dialysis vintage with parameters of peritoneal transport of fluid and solutes, directly measured and estimated based on the pore model, for individual patients. Thirty-three patients (15 females; age 60 (21–87) years; median time on PD 19 (3–100) months) underwent sequential peritoneal equilibration test. Dialysis vintage and patient age did not correlate. Estimation of parameters of the two-pore model of peritoneal transport was performed. The estimated fluid transport parameters, including hydraulic permeability (LpS), fraction of ultrasmall pores (α u), osmotic conductance for glucose (OCG), and peritoneal absorption, were generally independent of solute transport parameters (diffusive mass transport parameters). Fluid transport parameters correlated whereas transport parameters for small solutes and proteins did not correlate with dialysis vintage and patient age. Although LpS and OCG were lower for older patients and those with long dialysis vintage, αu was higher. Thus, fluid transport parameters—rather than solute transport parameters—are linked to dialysis vintage and patient age and should therefore be included when monitoring processes linked to ageing of the peritoneal membrane. PMID:26989432
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Considering inventory distributions in a stochastic periodic inventory routing system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yadollahi, Ehsan; Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine
2017-07-01
Dealing with the stochasticity of parameters is one of the critical issues in business and industry nowadays. Supply chain planners have difficulties in forecasting stochastic parameters of a distribution system. Demand rates of customers during their lead time are one of these parameters. In addition, holding a huge level of inventory at the retailers is costly and inefficient. To cover the uncertainty of forecasting demand rates, researchers have proposed the usage of safety stock to avoid stock-out. However, finding the precise level of safety stock depends on forecasting the statistical distribution of demand rates and their variations in different settings among the planning horizon. In this paper the demand rate distributions and its parameters are taken into account for each time period in a stochastic periodic IRP. An analysis of the achieved statistical distribution of the inventory and safety stock level is provided to measure the effects of input parameters on the output indicators. Different values for coefficient of variation are applied to the customers' demand rate in the optimization model. The outcome of the deterministic equivalent model of SPIRP is simulated in form of an illustrative case.
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Differences of Tooth Colorimetric Parameters L*a*b* Depended on Age
Krasniqi, Teuta Pustina; Lila-Krasniqi, Zana; Ajeti, Nexhmije; Shala, Kujtim; Bicaj, Teuta; Dula, Linda
2017-01-01
AIM: The study aimed to analyse differences in colourimetric parameters L*a*b*, depended on age. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this study were included 255 subjects with age interval from 20 to 49 years. The subjects were divided into three groups, as follows: in the younger group were 20 to 29 years of age, those in the middle group 30 to 39 years and older group 40 to 49 years. The overall number of analysed teeth in the intercanine sector of the maxilla was 2295. The colour of the teeth was measured using the spectrophotometer VITA Easyshade. RESULTS: The results for differences in the colourimetric parameters in relation with age were tested with Pearson Chi-square (χ2). For χ2 = 572, 87 and df = 124 there was a statistical significant difference between the ages P < 0.001. CONCLUSION: In this study, it was concluded that the parameter L* - Lightness was decreasing when age increased. In the age group, 20 to 29 years L* was 83.2, whereas in the older group of this investigation; 40 to 49 years was 79.4. In the youngest group, the parameter a* was - 0.7, whereas with increasing of age this parameter was -0.5. The values for parameter b* from the youngest to the older group were from 21.7 to 23.9. PMID:29104689
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Evolutionary theory of ageing and the problem of correlated Gompertz parameters.
Burger, Oskar; Missov, Trifon I
2016-11-07
The Gompertz mortality model is often used to evaluate evolutionary theories of ageing, such as the Medawar-Williams' hypothesis that high extrinsic mortality leads to faster ageing. However, fits of the Gompertz mortality model to data often find the opposite result that mortality is negatively correlated with the rate of ageing. This negative correlation has been independently discovered in several taxa and is known in actuarial studies of ageing as the Strehler-Mildvan correlation. We examine the role of mortality selection in determining late-life variation in susceptibility to death, which has been suggested to be the cause of this negative correlation. We demonstrate that fixed-frailty models that account for heterogeneity in frailty do not remove the correlation and that the correlation is an inherent statistical property of the Gompertz distribution. Linking actuarial and biological rates of ageing will continue to be a pressing challenge, but the Strehler-Mildvan correlation itself should not be used to diagnose any biological, physiological, or evolutionary process. These findings resolve some key tensions between theory and data that affect evolutionary and biological studies of ageing and mortality. Tests of evolutionary theories of ageing should include direct measures of physiological performance or condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Thompson, Gary A; Solomon, Gail; Albrecht, Helmut H; Reitberg, Donald P; Guenin, Eric
2016-07-01
This study characterized guaifenesin pharmacokinetics in children aged 2 to 17 years (n = 40) who received a single oral dose of guaifenesin (age-based doses of 100-400 mg) 2 hours after breakfast. Plasma samples were obtained before and for 8 hours after dosing and analyzed for guaifenesin using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using noncompartmental methods, relationships with age were assessed using linear regression, and dose proportionality was assessed on 95% confidence intervals. Based on the upper dose recommended in the monograph (for both children and adolescents), area under the curve from time zero to infinity and maximum plasma concentration both increased with age. However, when comparing the upper dose for children aged 2 to 11 years with the lower dose for adolescents aged 12 to 17 years, similar systemic exposure was observed. As expected due to increasing body size, oral clearance (CLo ) and terminal volume of distribution (Vz /F) increased with age. Due to a larger increase in Vz /F than CLo , an increase in terminal exponential half-life was also observed. Allometric scaling indicated no maturation-related changes in CLo and Vz /F. © 2016, The Authors. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American College of Clinical Pharmacology.
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Wolvers, Danielle AW; van Herpen-Broekmans, Wendy MR; Logman, Margot HGM; van der Wielen, Reggy PJ; Albers, Ruud
2006-01-01
Background Supplementation of nutritional deficiencies helps to improve immune function and resistance to infections in malnourished subjects. However, the suggested benefits of dietary supplementation for immune function in healthy well nourished subjects is less clear. Among the food constituents frequently associated with beneficial effects on immune function are micronutrients such as vitamin C, vitamin E, β-carotene and zinc, and colostrum. This study was designed to investigate the effects these ingredients on immune function markers in healthy volunteers. Methods In a double-blind, randomized, parallel, 2*2, placebo-controlled intervention study one hundred thirty-eight healthy volunteers aged 40–80 y (average 57 ± 10 y) received one of the following treatments: (1) bovine colostrum concentrate 1.2 g/d (equivalent to ~500 mg/d immunoglobulins), (2) micronutrient mix of 288 mg vitamin E, 375 mg vitamin C, 12 mg β-carotene and 15 mg zinc/day, (3) combination of colostrum and micronutrient mix, or (4) placebo. Several immune function parameters were assessed after 6 and 10 weeks. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance. Groups were combined to test micronutrient treatment versus no micronutrient treatment, and colostrum treatment versus no colostrum treatment. Results Overall, consumption of the micronutrient mix significantly enhanced delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses (p < 0.05). Adjusted covariance analysis showed a positive association between DTH and age. Separate analysis of younger and older age groups indicated that it was the older population that benefited from micronutrient consumption. The other immune function parameters including responses to systemic tetanus and oral typhoid vaccination, phagocytosis, oxidative burst, lymphocyte proliferation and lymphocyte subset distribution were neither affected by the consumption of micronutrients nor by the consumption of bovine colostrum concentrate. Conclusion Consumption of bovine colostrum had no effect on any of the immune parameters assessed. The micronutrient mix enhanced cellular immunity as measured by DTH, with an increased effect by incremental age, but did not affect any of the other immune parameters measured. Although correlations between decreased DTH and enhanced risk of certain infection have been reported, it remains unclear whether and enhanced DTH response actually improves immune defense. The present data suggests that improvement of immune parameters in a population with a generally good immune and nutritional status is limited and that improvement of immune function in this population may be difficult. PMID:17118191
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Zimmerman, Donald W.
2011-01-01
This study investigated how population parameters representing heterogeneity of variance, skewness, kurtosis, bimodality, and outlier-proneness, drawn from normal and eleven non-normal distributions, also characterized the ranks corresponding to independent samples of scores. When the parameters of population distributions from which samples were…
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Bullock, Meggan; Márquez, Lourdes; Hernández, Patricia; Ruíz, Fernando
2013-09-01
Traditional methods of aging adult skeletons suffer from the problem of age mimicry of the reference collection, as described by Bocquet-Appel and Masset (1982). Transition analysis (Boldsen et al., 2002) is a method of aging adult skeletons that addresses the problem of age mimicry of the reference collection by allowing users to select an appropriate prior probability. In order to evaluate whether transition analysis results in significantly different age estimates for adults, the method was applied to skeletal collections from Postclassic Cholula and Contact-Period Xochimilco. The resulting age-at-death distributions were then compared with age-at-death distributions for the two populations constructed using traditional aging methods. Although the traditional aging methods result in age-at-death distributions with high young adult mortality and few individuals living past the age of 50, the age-at-death distributions constructed using transition analysis indicate that most individuals who lived into adulthood lived past the age of 50. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pogorzelski, Stanisław J.; Rochowski, Pawel; Szurkowski, Janusz
2014-02-01
An investigation of water contact angles (CAs), contact angle hysteresis (CAH) was carried out for 1-year to 4-year old needles (Pinus sylvestris) collected in urban (Gdansk) and rural (Karsin) locations using an original measuring technique based on the geometry of the drop on a vertical filament. Concentrations of air pollutants (SO2, NOx, C6H6, and suspended particular matter - SPM) currently considered to be most important in causing direct damage to vegetation were simultaneously monitored. A set of the surface wettability parameters: the apparent surface free energy γSV, adhesive film tension Π, work of adhesion WA, and spreading WS, were determined from CAH data using the approach developed by Chibowski (2003) to quantify the surface energetics of the needle substrata affected by aging and pollution impacts. This formalism relates the total apparent surface free energy of the solid γSV with only three measurable quantities: the surface tension of the probe liquid γLV and its advancing θA and receding θR contact angle hysteresis. Since CAH depends on the outermost wax layer surface roughness and spatial physicochemical heterogeneity of a solid surface, CA data were corrected using surface architecture profiles registered with confocal scanning laser microscopy. It was found that the roughness parameter r is significantly negatively correlated (R = -0.74) with the needle age (collected at Karsin). The needle surface aging process resulted in its surface hydrophilization (CA↓ and CAH↓ with γSV↑ and WA↑). A temporal evolution of the needles wettability was traced with the data point distribution in the 2D space of CAH plotted versus WS. The wettability parameters were closely correlated to pollutant concentrations as evidenced from Spearman's rank correlation procedure (R = 0.63-0.91; p < 0.05). The aim of the study was to validate the established CA methodology to create a new non-invasive, low-cost technique suitable for monitoring of structural changes at interfaces of biological systems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dubolazov, O. V.; Ushenko, V. O.; Trifoniuk, L.; Ushenko, Yu. O.; Zhytaryuk, V. G.; Prydiy, O. G.; Grytsyuk, M.; Kushnerik, L.; Meglinskiy, I.
2017-09-01
A new technique of Mueller-matrix mapping of polycrystalline structure of histological sections of biological tissues is suggested. The algorithms of reconstruction of distribution of parameters of linear and circular birefringence of prostate histological sections are found. The interconnections between such distributions and parameters of linear and circular birefringence of prostate tissue histological sections are defined. The comparative investigations of coordinate distributions of phase anisotropy parameters formed by fibrillar networks of prostate tissues of different pathological states (adenoma and carcinoma) are performed. The values and ranges of change of the statistical (moments of the 1st - 4th order) parameters of coordinate distributions of the value of linear and circular birefringence are defined. The objective criteria of cause of Benign and malignant conditions differentiation are determined.
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Tanaka, Shoji; Murakami, Yukio; Ogiwara, Takako; Shoji, Masao; Seto, Kazuhito; Nagasaki, Masahumi; Fujisawa, Seiichiro
2002-08-01
The present study was conducted to assess the association between selected clinical parameters and the distribution of Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg), Prevotella intermedia (Pi), Prevotella nigrescens (Pn), and Prevotella melaninogenica (Pm) in supra- and subgingival plaque samples measured by an immunoslot blot assay (IBA) using their monoclonal antibodies. Plaque samples from 299 patients aged 6 to 69 randomly chosen from a group of dental outpatients were examined. Plaque index, gingival index, and probing depths were evaluated according to the criteria of positive (cell number > or = 10(6)) or negative (<106) reactivity to the 4 different monoclonal antibodies. An increase in probing depth in subjects exhibiting either a positive or negative reaction for the 4 test bacteria was associated with increasing age. Comparing bacteria-positive subgingival plaque samples to their corresponding bacteria-negative counterparts, we found an increased plaque index in children positive for any of the 4 bacteria; in addition, that for Pg and Pi was increased in subjects 40 to 49 years old. The gingival index increased with increasing amount of Pi and Pn, but not with Pg and Pm in those 20 to 29 years of age. The frequency of Pg reactivity in subgingival plaque was markedly enhanced in subjects older than 30 to 39 years of age, and was significantly higher than that in supragingival plaque. The frequency of Pi and Pn reactivity was significantly increased in adults aged 20 to 29 and plateaued at older ages. The frequency of Pm reactivity was relatively low and independent of subject age. The increase in probing depth with increasing age was not affected by the occurrence of periodontopathic bacteria. The high rate of occurrence of Pg, together with Pi and Pn, in subgingival plaque of the adult age groups was suggested to be associated with the high frequency of periodontal disease in the older age groups (above 30 to 49 years of age). The IBA appears to be useful for the efficient and rapid detection of periodontopathic bacteria.
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Clues on the Milky Way disc formation from population synthesis simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robin, A. C.; Reylé, C.; Bienaymé, O.; Fernandez-Trincado, J. G.; Amôres, E. B.
2016-09-01
In recent years the stellar populations of the Milky Way have been investigated from large scale surveys in different ways, from pure star count analysis to detailed studies based on spectroscopic surveys. While in the former case the data can constrain the scale height and scale length thanks to completeness, they suffer from high correlation between these two values. On the other hand, spectroscopic surveys suffer from complex selection functions which hardly allow to derive accurate density distributions. The scale length in particular has been difficult to be constrained, resulting in discrepant values in the literature. Here, we investigate the thick disc characteristics by comparing model simulations with large scale data sets. The simulations are done from the population synthesis model of Besançon. We explore the parameters of the thick disc (shape, local density, age, metallicity) using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain method to constrain the model free parameters (Robin et al. 2014). Correlations between parameters are limited due to the vast spatial coverage of the used surveys (SDSS + 2MASS). We show that the thick disc was created during a long phase of formation, starting about 12 Gyr ago and finishing about 10 Gyr ago, during which gravitational contraction occurred, both vertically and radially. Moreover, in its early phase the thick disc was flaring in the outskirts. We conclude that the thick disc has been created prior to the thin disc during a gravitational collapse phase, slowed down by turbulence related to a high star formation rate, as explained for example in Bournaud et al. (2009) or Lehnert et al. (2009). Our result does not favor a formation from an initial thin disc thickened later by merger events or by secular evolution of the thin disc. We then study the in-plane distribution of stars in the thin disc from 2MASS and show that the thin disc scale length varies as a function of age, indicating an inside out formation. Moreover, we investigate the warp and flare and demonstrate that the warp amplitude is changing with time and the node angle is slightly precessing. Finally, we show comparisons between the new model and spectroscopic surveys. The new model allows to correctly simulate the kinematics, the metallicity, and α-abundance distributions in the solar neighbourhood as well as in the bulge region.
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Merchan, L Marcela; Hassan, Hazem E; Terrin, Michael L; Waites, Ken B; Kaufman, David A; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Donohue, Pamela; Dulkerian, Susan J; Schelonka, Robert; Magder, Laurence S; Shukla, Sagar; Eddington, Natalie D; Viscardi, Rose M
2015-01-01
The study objectives were to refine the population pharmacokinetics (PK) model, determine microbial clearance, and assess short-term pulmonary outcomes of multiple-dose azithromycin treatment in preterm infants at risk for Ureaplasma respiratory colonization. Fifteen subjects (7 of whom were Ureaplasma positive) received intravenous azithromycin at 20 mg/kg of body weight every 24 h for 3 doses. Azithromycin concentrations were determined in plasma samples obtained up to 168 h post-first dose by using a validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. Respiratory samples were obtained predose and at three time points post-last dose for Ureaplasma culture, PCR, antibiotic susceptibility testing, and cytokine concentration determinations. Pharmacokinetic data from these 15 subjects as well as 25 additional subjects (who received either a single 10-mg/kg dose [n = 12] or a single 20-mg/kg dose [n = 13]) were analyzed by using a nonlinear mixed-effect population modeling (NONMEM) approach. Pulmonary outcomes were assessed at 36 weeks post-menstrual age and 6 months adjusted age. A 2-compartment model with all PK parameters allometrically scaled on body weight best described the azithromycin pharmacokinetics in preterm neonates. The population pharmacokinetics parameter estimates for clearance, central volume of distribution, intercompartmental clearance, and peripheral volume of distribution were 0.15 liters/h · kg(0.75), 1.88 liters · kg, 1.79 liters/h · kg(0.75), and 13 liters · kg, respectively. The estimated area under the concentration-time curve over 24 h (AUC24)/MIC90 value was ∼ 4 h. All posttreatment cultures were negative, and there were no drug-related adverse events. One Ureaplasma-positive infant died at 4 months of age, but no survivors were hospitalized for respiratory etiologies during the first 6 months (adjusted age). Thus, a 3-day course of 20 mg/kg/day intravenous azithromycin shows preliminary efficacy in eradicating Ureaplasma spp. from the preterm respiratory tract. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.
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Stricker, P A; Gastonguay, M R; Singh, D; Fiadjoe, J E; Sussman, E M; Pruitt, E Y; Goebel, T K; Zuppa, A F
2015-04-01
Despite demonstrated efficacy of ϵ-aminocaproic acid (EACA) in reducing blood loss in adolescents undergoing spinal fusion, there are no population-specific pharmacokinetic data to guide dosing. The aim of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetics of EACA in adolescents undergoing spinal fusion surgery and make dosing recommendations. Twenty children ages 12-17 years were enrolled, with 10 children in each of two groups based on diagnosis (idiopathic scoliosis or non-idiopathic scoliosis). Previously reported data from infants undergoing craniofacial surgery were included in the model to enable dosing recommendations over a wide range of weights, ages, and diagnoses. A population non-linear mixed effects modelling approach was used to characterize EACA pharmacokinetics. Population pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using a two-compartment disposition model with allometrically scaled weight and an age effect on clearance. Pharmacokinetic parameters for the typical patient were a plasma clearance of 153 ml min(-1) 70 kg(-1) (6.32 ml min(-1) kg(-0.75)), intercompartmental clearance of 200 ml min(-1) 70 kg(-1) (8.26 ml min(-1) kg(-0.75)), central volume of distribution of 8.78 litre 70 kg(-1) (0.13 litre kg(-1)), and peripheral volume of distribution of 15.8 litre 70 kg(-1) (0.23 litre kg(-1)). Scoliosis aetiology did not have a clinically significant effect on drug pharmacokinetics. The following dosing schemes are recommended according to patient weight: weight <25 kg, 100 mg kg(-1) loading dose and 40 mg kg(-1) h(-1) infusion; weight ≤25 kg-<50 kg, 100 mg kg(-1) loading dose and 35 mg kg(-1) h(-1) infusion; and weight ≥50 kg, 100 mg kg(-1) loading dose and 30 mg kg(-1) h(-1) infusion. An efficacy trial employing this dosing strategy is warranted. NCT01408823. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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Stricker, P. A.; Gastonguay, M. R.; Singh, D.; Fiadjoe, J. E.; Sussman, E. M.; Pruitt, E. Y.; Goebel, T. K.; Zuppa, A. F.
2015-01-01
Background Despite demonstrated efficacy of ϵ-aminocaproic acid (EACA) in reducing blood loss in adolescents undergoing spinal fusion, there are no population-specific pharmacokinetic data to guide dosing. The aim of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetics of EACA in adolescents undergoing spinal fusion surgery and make dosing recommendations. Methods Twenty children ages 12–17 years were enrolled, with 10 children in each of two groups based on diagnosis (idiopathic scoliosis or non-idiopathic scoliosis). Previously reported data from infants undergoing craniofacial surgery were included in the model to enable dosing recommendations over a wide range of weights, ages, and diagnoses. A population non-linear mixed effects modelling approach was used to characterize EACA pharmacokinetics. Results Population pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using a two-compartment disposition model with allometrically scaled weight and an age effect on clearance. Pharmacokinetic parameters for the typical patient were a plasma clearance of 153 ml min−1 70 kg−1 (6.32 ml min−1 kg−0.75), intercompartmental clearance of 200 ml min−1 70 kg−1 (8.26 ml min−1 kg−0.75), central volume of distribution of 8.78 litre 70 kg−1 (0.13 litre kg−1), and peripheral volume of distribution of 15.8 litre 70 kg−1 (0.23 litre kg−1). Scoliosis aetiology did not have a clinically significant effect on drug pharmacokinetics. Conclusions The following dosing schemes are recommended according to patient weight: weight <25 kg, 100 mg kg−1 loading dose and 40 mg kg−1 h−1 infusion; weight ≤25 kg–<50 kg, 100 mg kg−1 loading dose and 35 mg kg−1 h−1 infusion; and weight ≥50 kg, 100 mg kg−1 loading dose and 30 mg kg−1 h−1 infusion. An efficacy trial employing this dosing strategy is warranted. Clinical trial registration NCT01408823. PMID:25586726
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Lahanas, M; Baltas, D; Giannouli, S; Milickovic, N; Zamboglou, N
2000-05-01
We have studied the accuracy of statistical parameters of dose distributions in brachytherapy using actual clinical implants. These include the mean, minimum and maximum dose values and the variance of the dose distribution inside the PTV (planning target volume), and on the surface of the PTV. These properties have been studied as a function of the number of uniformly distributed sampling points. These parameters, or the variants of these parameters, are used directly or indirectly in optimization procedures or for a description of the dose distribution. The accurate determination of these parameters depends on the sampling point distribution from which they have been obtained. Some optimization methods ignore catheters and critical structures surrounded by the PTV or alternatively consider as surface dose points only those on the contour lines of the PTV. D(min) and D(max) are extreme dose values which are either on the PTV surface or within the PTV. They must be avoided for specification and optimization purposes in brachytherapy. Using D(mean) and the variance of D which we have shown to be stable parameters, achieves a more reliable description of the dose distribution on the PTV surface and within the PTV volume than does D(min) and D(max). Generation of dose points on the real surface of the PTV is obligatory and the consideration of catheter volumes results in a realistic description of anatomical dose distributions.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Mestrovic, Ante; Clark, Brenda G.; Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia
2005-11-01
Purpose: To develop a method of predicting the values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques for treatment of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) based on internal geometric parameters. Methods and Materials: For each of 18 previously treated AVM patients, four treatment plans were created: circular collimator arcs, dynamic conformal arcs, fixed conformal fields, and intensity-modulated radiosurgery. An algorithm was developed to characterize the target and critical structure shape complexity and the position of the critical structures with respect to the target. Multiple regression was employed to establish the correlation between the internal geometric parameters and the dose distribution for differentmore » treatment techniques. The results from the model were applied to predict the dosimetric outcomes of different radiosurgery techniques and select the optimal radiosurgery technique for a number of AVM patients. Results: Several internal geometric parameters showing statistically significant correlation (p < 0.05) with the treatment planning results for each technique were identified. The target volume and the average minimum distance between the target and the critical structures were the most effective predictors for normal tissue dose distribution. The structure overlap volume with the target and the mean distance between the target and the critical structure were the most effective predictors for critical structure dose distribution. The predicted values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques were in close agreement with the original data. Conclusions: A statistical model has been described that successfully predicts the values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques and may be used to predetermine the optimal technique on a patient-to-patient basis.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Syam, Nur Syamsi; Maeng, Seongjin; Kim, Myo Gwang; Lim, Soo Yeon; Lee, Sang Hoon
2018-05-01
A large dead time of a Geiger Mueller (GM) detector may cause a large count loss in radiation measurements and consequently may cause distortion of the Poisson statistic of radiation events into a new distribution. The new distribution will have different statistical parameters compared to the original distribution. Therefore, the variance, skewness, and excess kurtosis in association with the observed count rate of the time interval distribution for well-known nonparalyzable, paralyzable, and nonparalyzable-paralyzable hybrid dead time models of a Geiger Mueller detector were studied using Monte Carlo simulation (GMSIM). These parameters were then compared with the statistical parameters of a perfect detector to observe the change in the distribution. The results show that the behaviors of the statistical parameters for the three dead time models were different. The values of the skewness and the excess kurtosis of the nonparalyzable model are equal or very close to those of the perfect detector, which are ≅2 for skewness, and ≅6 for excess kurtosis, while the statistical parameters in the paralyzable and hybrid model obtain minimum values that occur around the maximum observed count rates. The different trends of the three models resulting from the GMSIM simulation can be used to distinguish the dead time behavior of a GM counter; i.e. whether the GM counter can be described best by using the nonparalyzable, paralyzable, or hybrid model. In a future study, these statistical parameters need to be analyzed further to determine the possibility of using them to determine a dead time for each model, particularly for paralyzable and hybrid models.
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SU-E-T-113: Dose Distribution Using Respiratory Signals and Machine Parameters During Treatment
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Imae, T; Haga, A; Saotome, N
Purpose: Volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) is a rotational intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) technique capable of acquiring projection images during treatment. Treatment plans for lung tumors using stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) are calculated with planning computed tomography (CT) images only exhale phase. Purpose of this study is to evaluate dose distribution by reconstructing from only the data such as respiratory signals and machine parameters acquired during treatment. Methods: Phantom and three patients with lung tumor underwent CT scans for treatment planning. They were treated by VMAT while acquiring projection images to derive their respiratory signals and machine parameters including positions ofmore » multi leaf collimators, dose rates and integrated monitor units. The respiratory signals were divided into 4 and 10 phases and machine parameters were correlated with the divided respiratory signals based on the gantry angle. Dose distributions of each respiratory phase were calculated from plans which were reconstructed from the respiratory signals and the machine parameters during treatment. The doses at isocenter, maximum point and the centroid of target were evaluated. Results and Discussion: Dose distributions during treatment were calculated using the machine parameters and the respiratory signals detected from projection images. Maximum dose difference between plan and in treatment distribution was −1.8±0.4% at centroid of target and dose differences of evaluated points between 4 and 10 phases were no significant. Conclusion: The present method successfully evaluated dose distribution using respiratory signals and machine parameters during treatment. This method is feasible to verify the actual dose for moving target.« less
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Bastien, Olivier; Maréchal, Eric
2008-08-07
Confidence in pairwise alignments of biological sequences, obtained by various methods such as Blast or Smith-Waterman, is critical for automatic analyses of genomic data. Two statistical models have been proposed. In the asymptotic limit of long sequences, the Karlin-Altschul model is based on the computation of a P-value, assuming that the number of high scoring matching regions above a threshold is Poisson distributed. Alternatively, the Lipman-Pearson model is based on the computation of a Z-value from a random score distribution obtained by a Monte-Carlo simulation. Z-values allow the deduction of an upper bound of the P-value (1/Z-value2) following the TULIP theorem. Simulations of Z-value distribution is known to fit with a Gumbel law. This remarkable property was not demonstrated and had no obvious biological support. We built a model of evolution of sequences based on aging, as meant in Reliability Theory, using the fact that the amount of information shared between an initial sequence and the sequences in its lineage (i.e., mutual information in Information Theory) is a decreasing function of time. This quantity is simply measured by a sequence alignment score. In systems aging, the failure rate is related to the systems longevity. The system can be a machine with structured components, or a living entity or population. "Reliability" refers to the ability to operate properly according to a standard. Here, the "reliability" of a sequence refers to the ability to conserve a sufficient functional level at the folded and maturated protein level (positive selection pressure). Homologous sequences were considered as systems 1) having a high redundancy of information reflected by the magnitude of their alignment scores, 2) which components are the amino acids that can independently be damaged by random DNA mutations. From these assumptions, we deduced that information shared at each amino acid position evolved with a constant rate, corresponding to the information hazard rate, and that pairwise sequence alignment scores should follow a Gumbel distribution, which parameters could find some theoretical rationale. In particular, one parameter corresponds to the information hazard rate. Extreme value distribution of alignment scores, assessed from high scoring segments pairs following the Karlin-Altschul model, can also be deduced from the Reliability Theory applied to molecular sequences. It reflects the redundancy of information between homologous sequences, under functional conservative pressure. This model also provides a link between concepts of biological sequence analysis and of systems biology.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The use of distributed parameter models to address water resource management problems has increased in recent years. Calibration is necessary to reduce the uncertainties associated with model input parameters. Manual calibration of a distributed parameter model is a very time consuming effort. There...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sinharay, Sandip
2015-01-01
The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the ability parameter of an item response theory model with known item parameters was proved to be asymptotically normally distributed under a set of regularity conditions for tests involving dichotomous items and a unidimensional ability parameter (Klauer, 1990; Lord, 1983). This article first considers…
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The Impact of Uncertain Physical Parameters on HVAC Demand Response
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sun, Yannan; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Lu, Shuai
HVAC units are currently one of the major resources providing demand response (DR) in residential buildings. Models of HVAC with DR function can improve understanding of its impact on power system operations and facilitate the deployment of DR technologies. This paper investigates the importance of various physical parameters and their distributions to the HVAC response to DR signals, which is a key step to the construction of HVAC models for a population of units with insufficient data. These parameters include the size of floors, insulation efficiency, the amount of solid mass in the house, and efficiency of the HVAC units.more » These parameters are usually assumed to follow Gaussian or Uniform distributions. We study the effect of uncertainty in the chosen parameter distributions on the aggregate HVAC response to DR signals, during transient phase and in steady state. We use a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method with linear regression and Prony analysis to evaluate sensitivity of DR output to the uncertainty in the distribution parameters. The significance ranking on the uncertainty sources is given for future guidance in the modeling of HVAC demand response.« less
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Koyama, Kento; Hokunan, Hidekazu; Hasegawa, Mayumi; Kawamura, Shuso; Koseki, Shigenobu
2016-12-01
We investigated a bacterial sample preparation procedure for single-cell studies. In the present study, we examined whether single bacterial cells obtained via 10-fold dilution followed a theoretical Poisson distribution. Four serotypes of Salmonella enterica, three serotypes of enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli and one serotype of Listeria monocytogenes were used as sample bacteria. An inoculum of each serotype was prepared via a 10-fold dilution series to obtain bacterial cell counts with mean values of one or two. To determine whether the experimentally obtained bacterial cell counts follow a theoretical Poisson distribution, a likelihood ratio test between the experimentally obtained cell counts and Poisson distribution which parameter estimated by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was conducted. The bacterial cell counts of each serotype sufficiently followed a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, to examine the validity of the parameters of Poisson distribution from experimentally obtained bacterial cell counts, we compared these with the parameters of a Poisson distribution that were estimated using random number generation via computer simulation. The Poisson distribution parameters experimentally obtained from bacterial cell counts were within the range of the parameters estimated using a computer simulation. These results demonstrate that the bacterial cell counts of each serotype obtained via 10-fold dilution followed a Poisson distribution. The fact that the frequency of bacterial cell counts follows a Poisson distribution at low number would be applied to some single-cell studies with a few bacterial cells. In particular, the procedure presented in this study enables us to develop an inactivation model at the single-cell level that can estimate the variability of survival bacterial numbers during the bacterial death process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.
2015-01-01
Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.
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Kale, Sanjay S; Ghole, Vikram Shantaram; Pawar, N J; Jagtap, Deepak V
2014-01-01
Semi-arid Karha basin from Deccan Volcanic Province, India was investigated for inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic. The number of reported urolith patient, weather station data and groundwater quality results was used to assess impact of geoenvironment on urolithiasis. Data of 7081 urolith patient were processed for epidemiological study. Gender class, age group, year-wise cases and urolith type were studied in epidemiology. Rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation and sunshine hours were used to correlate urolithiasis. Further, average values of groundwater parameters were correlated with the number of urolith episodes. A total of 52 urolith samples were collected from hospitals and analysed using FTIR technique to identify dominant urolith type in study area. Result shows that male population is more prone, age group of 20-40 is more susceptible and calcium oxalate uroliths are dominant in study area. Year-wise distribution revealed that there is steady increase in urolithiasis with inflation in drought years. In climatic parameters, hot days are significantly correlated with urolithiasis. In groundwater quality, EC, Na and F are convincingly correlated with urolith patients, which concludes the strong relation between geo-environment and urolithiasis.
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The impact of Nordic walking training on the gait of the elderly.
Ben Mansour, Khaireddine; Gorce, Philippe; Rezzoug, Nasser
2018-03-27
The purpose of the current study was to define the impact of regular practice of Nordic walking on the gait of the elderly. Thereby, we aimed to determine whether the gait characteristics of active elderly persons practicing Nordic walking are more similar to healthy adults than that of the sedentary elderly. Comparison was made based on parameters computed from three inertial sensors during walking at a freely chosen velocity. Results showed differences in gait pattern in terms of the amplitude computed from acceleration and angular velocity at the lumbar region (root mean square), the distribution (Skewness) quantified from the vertical and Euclidean norm of the lumbar acceleration, the complexity (Sample Entropy) of the mediolateral component of lumbar angular velocity and the Euclidean norm of the shank acceleration and angular velocity, the regularity of the lower limbs, the spatiotemporal parameters and the variability (standard deviation) of stance and stride durations. These findings reveal that the pattern of active elderly differs significantly from sedentary elderly of the same age while similarity was observed between the active elderly and healthy adults. These results advance that regular physical activity such as Nordic walking may counteract the deterioration of gait quality that occurs with aging.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dubreuil, S.; Salaün, M.; Rodriguez, E.; Petitjean, F.
2018-01-01
This study investigates the construction and identification of the probability distribution of random modal parameters (natural frequencies and effective parameters) in structural dynamics. As these parameters present various types of dependence structures, the retained approach is based on pair copula construction (PCC). A literature review leads us to choose a D-Vine model for the construction of modal parameters probability distributions. Identification of this model is based on likelihood maximization which makes it sensitive to the dimension of the distribution, namely the number of considered modes in our context. To this respect, a mode selection preprocessing step is proposed. It allows the selection of the relevant random modes for a given transfer function. The second point, addressed in this study, concerns the choice of the D-Vine model. Indeed, D-Vine model is not uniquely defined. Two strategies are proposed and compared. The first one is based on the context of the study whereas the second one is purely based on statistical considerations. Finally, the proposed approaches are numerically studied and compared with respect to their capabilities, first in the identification of the probability distribution of random modal parameters and second in the estimation of the 99 % quantiles of some transfer functions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noh, S. J.; Lee, D. Y.
2017-12-01
In the classic theory of wave-particle resonant interaction, anisotropy parameter of proton distribution is considered as an important factor to determine an instability such as ion cyclotron instability. The particle distribution function is often assumed to be a bi-Maxwellian distribution, for which the anisotropy parameter can be simplified to temperature anisotropy (T⊥/T∥-1) independent of specific energy of particles. In this paper, we studied the proton anisotropy related to EMIC waves using the Van Allen Probes observations in the inner magnetosphere. First, we found that the real velocity distribution of protons is usually not expressed with a simple bi-Maxwellian distribution. Also, we calculated the anisotropy parameter using the exact formula defined by Kennel and Petschek [1966] and investigated the linear instability criterion of them. We found that, for majority of the EMIC wave events, the threshold anisotropy condition for proton cyclotron instability is satisfied in the expected range of resonant energy. We further determined the parallel plasma beta and its inverse relationship with the anisotropy parameter. The inverse relationship exists both during the EMIC wave times and non-EMIC wave times, but with different slopes. Based on this result, we demonstrate that the parallel plasma beta can be a critical factor that determines occurrence of EMIC waves.
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Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.
2006-01-01
Climate is the primary factor in controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges is only now beginning to be quantified. Preceding volumes of this atlas explored the continental-scale relations between climatic parameters and the distributions of woody plant species across all of the continent of North America. This volume presents similar information for important woody species, groups of species, and ecoregions in more detail for the State of Alaska. For these analyses, we constructed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America from instrumental weather records. We obtained a digital representation of the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion, either from a published source or by digitizing the published distributions ourselves. The presence or absence of each species or ecoregion was then determined for each point on the 25-kilometer grid, thus providing a basis for comparison of the climatic data with the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion. The relations between climate and these distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form.
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Probability density functions for use when calculating standardised drought indices
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie
2015-04-01
Time series of drought indices like the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and standardised flow index (SFI) require a statistical probability density function to be fitted to the observed (generally monthly) precipitation and river flow data. Once fitted, the quantiles are transformed to a Normal distribution with mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1. These transformed data are the SPI/SFI, which are widely used in drought studies, including for drought monitoring and early warning applications. Different distributions were fitted to rainfall and river flow data accumulated over 1, 3, 6 and 12 months for 121 catchments in the United Kingdom. These catchments represent a range of catchment characteristics in a mid-latitude climate. Both rainfall and river flow data have a lower bound at 0, as rains and flows cannot be negative. Their empirical distributions also tend to have positive skewness, and therefore the Gamma distribution has often been a natural and suitable choice for describing the data statistically. However, after transformation of the data to Normal distributions to obtain the SPIs and SFIs for the 121 catchments, the distributions are rejected in 11% and 19% of cases, respectively, by the Shapiro-Wilk test. Three-parameter distributions traditionally used in hydrological applications, such as the Pearson type 3 for rainfall and the Generalised Logistic and Generalised Extreme Value distributions for river flow, tend to make the transformed data fit better, with rejection rates of 5% or less. However, none of these three-parameter distributions have a lower bound at zero. This means that the lower tail of the fitted distribution may potentially go below zero, which would result in a lower limit to the calculated SPI and SFI values (as observations can never reach into this lower tail of the theoretical distribution). The Tweedie distribution can overcome the problems found when using either the Gamma or the above three-parameter distributions. The Tweedie is a three-parameter distribution which includes the Gamma distribution as a special case. It is bounded below at zero and has enough flexibility to fit most behaviours observed in the data. It does not always outperform the three-parameter distributions, but the rejection rates are similar. In addition, for certain parameter values the Tweedie distribution has a positive mass at zero, which means that ephemeral streams and months with zero rainfall can be modelled. It holds potential for wider application in drought studies in other climates and types of catchment.
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Yoneyama, T; Okamoto, H; Lindhe, J; Socransky, S S; Haffajee, A D
1988-10-01
The present investigation describes probing pocket depth, probing attachment level and recession data from 319 randomly selected subjects, aged 20-79 years, from Ushiku, Japan. The findings are reported as mean values, frequency distributions and percentile plots of the 3 parameters at buccal, interproximal and lingual surfaces of single rooted (incisors, canines, premolars) and molar teeth. Inter-as well as intra-examiner errors for probing pocket depth and probing attachment levels were assessed and found to be small. The data reported revealed that practically all subjects studied had one or more sites in the dentition affected by destructive periodontal disease and that the severity of disease increased with age. It was further observed that in each age group, molars had suffered more attachment loss than single rooted teeth and that the interproximal surfaces as a rule had lost more periodontal tissue support than corresponding buccal and lingual surfaces. The attachment loss difference observed between different surfaces of a given tooth or a group of teeth, however, was comparatively small. In the age groups between 20-59 years, advanced destructive periodontal disease was found in a small subgroup of the subject sample, while after the age of 60 years, widespread destructive periodontitis was common. An attempt was made to examine the progression of destructive disease with age by comparing the frequency distributions of sites with attachment loss of greater than or equal to 3 mm in subjects of different age groups. The data suggested that in younger subject groups, progression was confined to a subset of individuals, while in older age groups, more subjects and sites became involved. A major feature of destructive periodontal disease in older individuals was the accompaniment of attachment loss with recession at the gingival margin. Deep pockets were relatively infrequently detected, while advanced loss of attachment (with recession) occurred at many sites.
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Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation.
Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han
2016-06-28
Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages.
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Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation
Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han
2016-01-01
Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691
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Physician-applied contact pressure and table force response during unilateral thoracic manipulation.
Kirstukas, S J; Backman, J A
1999-06-01
To measure the applied loading to human subjects during the reinforced unilateral thoracic manipulation. Biomechanical descriptive study. The National College of Chiropractic Clinical Biomechanical Laboratory in Lombard, Illinois. Seven men, ages 24 to 47, with no positive responses regarding muscle relaxants or thoracic spinal fractures, surgeries, or pain. We measured the contact pressure distribution at the physician-subject contact region and extracted three biomechanical parameters. From the measured time-dependent support force magnitudes, we extracted five additional biomechanical parameters. In the application of the reinforced unilateral manipulative treatment, the physician establishes contact and applies a near-static preload force of 250 to 350 N. The dynamic portion of the typical thrust is preceded by a 22% decrease in force magnitude, and the peak thrust magnitude is linearly related to the preload force magnitude. We estimate that the peak contact pressure beneath the chiropractor's pisiform can exceed 1000 kPa, with the highest pressures transmitted over areas as small as 3.6 cm2, depending on manipulative style. This work represents the first attempt at performing simultaneous measurements of the physician-applied loading and table force response and measuring the contact pressure distribution at the physician-patient contact region during chiropractic manipulation. This type of work will lead to a better understanding of the relationship between the dynamic physician-applied normal forces and the resulting load response at the table and gives us additional outcome parameters to quantify manipulative technique.
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VOSA: SED building and analysis of thousands of stars in the framework of Gaia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodrigo, C.; Solano, E.; Bayo, A.
2014-07-01
VOSA (http://svo2.cab.inta-csic.es/theory/vosa/), is a web-based tool designed to combine private photometric measurements with data available in VO services distributed worldwide to build the observational spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of hundreds of objects. VOSA also accesses various collections of models to simulate the equivalent theoretical SEDs, allows the user to decide the range of physical parameters to explore, performs the SED comparison, provides the best fitting models to the user following two different approaches (chi square and Bayesian fitting), and, for stellar sources, compares these parameters with isochrones and evolutionary tracks to estimate masses and ages. In particular, VOSA offers the advantage of deriving physical parameters using all the available photometric information instead of a restricted subset of colors. VOSA was firstly released in 2008 and its functionalities are described in Bayo et al. (2008). At the time of writing there are more than 300 active users in VOSA who have published more than 60 refereed papers. In the framework of the GENIUS (https://gaia.am.ub.es/Twiki/bin/view/GENIUS) project we are upgrading VOSA to, on one hand, provide a seamless access to Gaia data and, on the other hand, handle thousands of objects at a time. In this poster, the main functionalities to be implemented in the Gaia context will be described. The poster can be found at: http://svo.cab.inta-csic.es/files/svo//Public/SVOPapers/posters/vosa-poster3.pdf.
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The use of information theory for the evaluation of biomarkers of aging and physiological age.
Blokh, David; Stambler, Ilia
2017-04-01
The present work explores the application of information theoretical measures, such as entropy and normalized mutual information, for research of biomarkers of aging. The use of information theory affords unique methodological advantages for the study of aging processes, as it allows evaluating non-linear relations between biological parameters, providing the precise quantitative strength of those relations, both for individual and multiple parameters, showing cumulative or synergistic effect. Here we illustrate those capabilities utilizing a dataset on heart disease, including diagnostic parameters routinely available to physicians. The use of information-theoretical methods, utilizing normalized mutual information, revealed the exact amount of information that various diagnostic parameters or their combinations contained about the persons' age. Based on those exact informative values for the correlation of measured parameters with age, we constructed a diagnostic rule (a decision tree) to evaluate physiological age, as compared to chronological age. The present data illustrated that younger subjects suffering from heart disease showed characteristics of people of higher age (higher physiological age). Utilizing information-theoretical measures, with additional data, it may be possible to create further clinically applicable information-theory-based markers and models for the evaluation of physiological age, its relation to age-related diseases and its potential modifications by therapeutic interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A hierarchical Bayesian GEV model for improving local and regional flood quantile estimates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu; Troy, Tara; Devineni, Naresh
2016-10-01
We estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters for flood frequency analysis in a multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian framework, to explicitly model and reduce uncertainties. As prior information for the model, we assume that the GEV location and scale parameters for each site come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter scales with the drainage area. From empirical and theoretical arguments, the shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83,000 km2 flood prone basin in Southeast Brazil. The results show a significant reduction of uncertainty estimates of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with shorter records. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles tend to be narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering parameter uncertainties and regional information. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for regional flood frequency analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling law coefficients are used to define the predictive distributions of the GEV location and scale parameters for the out-of-sample sites given only their drainage areas and the posterior distribution of the average shape parameter is taken as the regional predictive distribution for this parameter. While the index flood method does not provide a straightforward way to consider the uncertainties in the index flood and in the regional parameters, the results obtained here show that the proposed Bayesian method is able to produce adequate credible intervals for flood quantiles that are in accordance with empirical estimates.
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Estimation of modal parameters using bilinear joint time frequency distributions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roshan-Ghias, A.; Shamsollahi, M. B.; Mobed, M.; Behzad, M.
2007-07-01
In this paper, a new method is proposed for modal parameter estimation using time-frequency representations. Smoothed Pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution which is a member of the Cohen's class distributions is used to decouple vibration modes completely in order to study each mode separately. This distribution reduces cross-terms which are troublesome in Wigner-Ville distribution and retains the resolution as well. The method was applied to highly damped systems, and results were superior to those obtained via other conventional methods.
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Stochastic parameter estimation in nonlinear time-delayed vibratory systems with distributed delay
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Torkamani, Shahab; Butcher, Eric A.
2013-07-01
The stochastic estimation of parameters and states in linear and nonlinear time-delayed vibratory systems with distributed delay is explored. The approach consists of first employing a continuous time approximation to approximate the delayed integro-differential system with a large set of ordinary differential equations having stochastic excitations. Then the problem of state and parameter estimation in the resulting stochastic ordinary differential system is represented as an optimal filtering problem using a state augmentation technique. By adapting the extended Kalman-Bucy filter to the augmented filtering problem, the unknown parameters of the time-delayed system are estimated from noise-corrupted, possibly incomplete measurements of the states. Similarly, the upper bound of the distributed delay can also be estimated by the proposed technique. As an illustrative example to a practical problem in vibrations, the parameter, delay upper bound, and state estimation from noise-corrupted measurements in a distributed force model widely used for modeling machine tool vibrations in the turning operation is investigated.
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A Parameter Communication Optimization Strategy for Distributed Machine Learning in Sensors
Zhang, Jilin; Tu, Hangdi; Ren, Yongjian; Wan, Jian; Zhou, Li; Li, Mingwei; Wang, Jue; Yu, Lifeng; Zhao, Chang; Zhang, Lei
2017-01-01
In order to utilize the distributed characteristic of sensors, distributed machine learning has become the mainstream approach, but the different computing capability of sensors and network delays greatly influence the accuracy and the convergence rate of the machine learning model. Our paper describes a reasonable parameter communication optimization strategy to balance the training overhead and the communication overhead. We extend the fault tolerance of iterative-convergent machine learning algorithms and propose the Dynamic Finite Fault Tolerance (DFFT). Based on the DFFT, we implement a parameter communication optimization strategy for distributed machine learning, named Dynamic Synchronous Parallel Strategy (DSP), which uses the performance monitoring model to dynamically adjust the parameter synchronization strategy between worker nodes and the Parameter Server (PS). This strategy makes full use of the computing power of each sensor, ensures the accuracy of the machine learning model, and avoids the situation that the model training is disturbed by any tasks unrelated to the sensors. PMID:28934163
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Distribution system model calibration with big data from AMI and PV inverters
Peppanen, Jouni; Reno, Matthew J.; Broderick, Robert J.; ...
2016-03-03
Efficient management and coordination of distributed energy resources with advanced automation schemes requires accurate distribution system modeling and monitoring. Big data from smart meters and photovoltaic (PV) micro-inverters can be leveraged to calibrate existing utility models. This paper presents computationally efficient distribution system parameter estimation algorithms to improve the accuracy of existing utility feeder radial secondary circuit model parameters. The method is demonstrated using a real utility feeder model with advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and PV micro-inverters, along with alternative parameter estimation approaches that can be used to improve secondary circuit models when limited measurement data is available. Lastly, themore » parameter estimation accuracy is demonstrated for both a three-phase test circuit with typical secondary circuit topologies and single-phase secondary circuits in a real mixed-phase test system.« less
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Distribution system model calibration with big data from AMI and PV inverters
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Peppanen, Jouni; Reno, Matthew J.; Broderick, Robert J.
Efficient management and coordination of distributed energy resources with advanced automation schemes requires accurate distribution system modeling and monitoring. Big data from smart meters and photovoltaic (PV) micro-inverters can be leveraged to calibrate existing utility models. This paper presents computationally efficient distribution system parameter estimation algorithms to improve the accuracy of existing utility feeder radial secondary circuit model parameters. The method is demonstrated using a real utility feeder model with advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and PV micro-inverters, along with alternative parameter estimation approaches that can be used to improve secondary circuit models when limited measurement data is available. Lastly, themore » parameter estimation accuracy is demonstrated for both a three-phase test circuit with typical secondary circuit topologies and single-phase secondary circuits in a real mixed-phase test system.« less
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Star Count Density Profiles and Structural Parameters of 26 Galactic Globular Clusters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miocchi, P.; Lanzoni, B.; Ferraro, F. R.; Dalessandro, E.; Vesperini, E.; Pasquato, M.; Beccari, G.; Pallanca, C.; Sanna, N.
2013-09-01
We used an appropriate combination of high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope observations and wide-field, ground-based data to derive the radial stellar density profiles of 26 Galactic globular clusters from resolved star counts (which can be all freely downloaded on-line). With respect to surface brightness (SB) profiles (which can be biased by the presence of sparse, bright stars), star counts are considered to be the most robust and reliable tool to derive cluster structural parameters. For each system, a detailed comparison with both King and Wilson models has been performed and the most relevant best-fit parameters have been obtained. This collection of data represents the largest homogeneous catalog collected so far of star count profiles and structural parameters derived therefrom. The analysis of the data of our catalog has shown that (1) the presence of the central cusps previously detected in the SB profiles of NGC 1851, M13, and M62 is not confirmed; (2) the majority of clusters in our sample are fit equally well by the King and the Wilson models; (3) we confirm the known relationship between cluster size (as measured by the effective radius) and galactocentric distance; (4) the ratio between the core and the effective radii shows a bimodal distribution, with a peak at ~0.3 for about 80% of the clusters and a secondary peak at ~0.6 for the remaining 20%. Interestingly, the main peak turns out to be in agreement with that expected from simulations of cluster dynamical evolution and the ratio between these two radii correlates well with an empirical dynamical-age indicator recently defined from the observed shape of blue straggler star radial distribution, thus suggesting that no exotic mechanisms of energy generation are needed in the cores of the analyzed clusters.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Divine, D. V.; Godtliebsen, F.; Rue, H.
2012-01-01
The paper proposes an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models based on tie points of mixed origin.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Queiroz, A. B. A.; Anders, F.; Santiago, B. X.; Chiappini, C.; Steinmetz, M.; Dal Ponte, M.; Stassun, K. G.; da Costa, L. N.; Maia, M. A. G.; Crestani, J.; Beers, T. C.; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; García-Hernández, D. A.; Roman-Lopes, A.; Zamora, O.
2018-05-01
Understanding the formation and evolution of our Galaxy requires accurate distances, ages, and chemistry for large populations of field stars. Here, we present several updates to our spectrophotometric distance code, which can now also be used to estimate ages, masses, and extinctions for individual stars. Given a set of measured spectrophotometric parameters, we calculate the posterior probability distribution over a given grid of stellar evolutionary models, using flexible Galactic stellar-population priors. The code (called StarHorse) can accommodate different observational data sets, prior options, partially missing data, and the inclusion of parallax information into the estimated probabilities. We validate the code using a variety of simulated stars as well as real stars with parameters determined from asteroseismology, eclipsing binaries, and isochrone fits to star clusters. Our main goal in this validation process is to test the applicability of the code to field stars with known Gaia-like parallaxes. The typical internal precisions (obtained from realistic simulations of an APOGEE+Gaia-like sample) are {˜eq } 8 {per cent} in distance, {˜eq } 20 {per cent} in age, {˜eq } 6 {per cent} in mass, and ≃ 0.04 mag in AV. The median external precision (derived from comparisons with earlier work for real stars) varies with the sample used, but lies in the range of {˜eq } [0,2] {per cent} for distances, {˜eq } [12,31] {per cent} for ages, {˜eq } [4,12] {per cent} for masses, and ≃ 0.07 mag for AV. We provide StarHorse distances and extinctions for the APOGEE DR14, RAVE DR5, GES DR3, and GALAH DR1 catalogues.
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Rakocevic, Miroslava; Matsunaga, Fabio Takeshi
2018-04-05
Dynamics in branch and leaf growth parameters, such as the phyllochron, duration of leaf expansion, leaf life span and bud mortality, determine tree architecture and canopy foliage distribution. We aimed to estimate leaf growth parameters in adult Arabica coffee plants based on leaf supporter axis order and position along the vertical profile, considering their modifications related to seasonal growth, air [CO2] and water availability. Growth and mortality of leaves and terminal buds of adult Arabica coffee trees were followed in two independent field experiments in two sub-tropical climate regions of Brazil, Londrina-PR (Cfa) and Jaguariúna-SP (Cwa). In the Cwa climate, coffee trees were grown under a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility, where half of those had been irrigated. Plants were observed at a 15-30 d frequency for 1 year. Leaf growth parameters were estimated on five axes orders and expressed as functions of accumulated thermal time (°Cd per leaf). The phyllochron and duration of leaf expansion increased with axis order, from the seond to the fourth. The phyllochron and life span during the reduced vegetative seasonal growth were greater than during active growth. It took more thermal time for leaves from the first- to fourth-order axes to expand their blades under irrigation compared with rainfed conditions. The compensation effects of high [CO2] for low water availability were observed on leaf retention on the second and third axes orders, and duration of leaf expansion on the first- and fourth-order axes. The second-degree polynomials modelled leaf growth parameter distribution in the vertical tree profile, and linear regressions modelled the proportion of terminal bud mortality. Leaf growth parameters in coffee plants were determined by axis order. The duration of leaf expansion contributed to phyllochron determination. Leaf growth parameters varied according the position of the axis supporter along the vertical profile, suggesting an effect of axes age and micro-environmental light modulations.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Knudsen, J.K.; Smith, C.L.
The steps involved to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accident sequence precursor (ASP) models is covered in this paper. Three different uncertainty distributions (i.e., lognormal, beta, gamma) were evaluated to Determine the most appropriate distribution. From the evaluation, it was Determined that the lognormal distribution will be used for the ASP models uncertainty parameters. Selection of the uncertainty parameters for the basic events is also discussed. This paper covers the process of determining uncertainty parameters for the supercomponent basic events (i.e., basic events that are comprised of more than one component which can have more thanmore » one failure mode) that are utilized in the ASP models. Once this is completed, the ASP model is ready to be utilized to propagate parameter uncertainty for event assessments.« less
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo Used in Parameter Inference of Magnetic Resonance Spectra
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Hock, Kiel; Earle, Keith
2016-02-06
In this paper, we use Boltzmann statistics and the maximum likelihood distribution derived from Bayes’ Theorem to infer parameter values for a Pake Doublet Spectrum, a lineshape of historical significance and contemporary relevance for determining distances between interacting magnetic dipoles. A Metropolis Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented and designed to find the optimum parameter set and to estimate parameter uncertainties. In conclusion, the posterior distribution allows us to define a metric on parameter space that induces a geometry with negative curvature that affects the parameter uncertainty estimates, particularly for spectra with low signal to noise.
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Wang, Qianqian; Zhao, Jing; Gong, Yong; Hao, Qun; Peng, Zhong
2017-11-20
A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm inspired by the best-so-far solution and bacterial chemotaxis was introduced to optimize the parameters of the five-parameter bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model. To verify the performance of the hybrid ABC algorithm, we measured BRDF of three kinds of samples and simulated the undetermined parameters of the five-parameter BRDF model using the hybrid ABC algorithm and the genetic algorithm, respectively. The experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid ABC algorithm outperforms the genetic algorithm in convergence speed, accuracy, and time efficiency under the same conditions.
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Detection of the toughest: Pedestrian injury risk as a smooth function of age.
Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko
2017-07-04
Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents and incorporates age-in addition to collision speed and injury severity-as a plug-in parameter. Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression. The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians. The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found.
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Nicolaou, Mary; Kunst, Anton E; Busschers, Wim B; van Valkengoed, Irene G; Dijkshoorn, Henriette; Boateng, Linda; Brewster, Lizzy M; Snijder, Marieke B; Stronks, Karien; Agyemang, Charles
2013-01-01
Despite higher levels of obesity, West African migrant women appear to have lower rates of type 2 diabetes than their male counterparts. We investigated the role of body fat distribution in these differences. Cross-sectional study of Ghanaian migrants (97 men, 115 women) aged 18-60 years in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Weight, height, waist and hip circumferences were measured. Logistic regression was used to explore the association of BMI, waist and hip measurements with elevated fasting glucose (glucose≥5.6 mmol/L). Linear regression was used to study the association of the same parameters with fasting glucose. Mean BMI, waist and hip circumferences were higher in women than men while the prevalence of elevated fasting glucose was higher in men than in women, 33% versus 19%. With adjustment for age only, men were non-significantly more likely than women to have an elevated fasting glucose, odds ratio (OR) 1.81, 95% CI: 0.95, 3.46. With correction for BMI, the higher odds among men increased and were statistically significant (OR 2.84, 95% CI: 1.32, 6.10), but with consideration of body fat distribution (by adding both hip and waist in the analysis) differences were no longer significant (OR 1.56 95% CI: 0.66, 3.68). Analysis with fasting glucose as continuous outcome measure showed somewhat similar results. Compared to men, the lower rates of elevated fasting glucose observed among Ghanaian women may be partly due to a more favorable body fat distribution, characterized by both hip and waist measurements.
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Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.
2014-11-01
Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.
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Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.
Bjerner, J
2007-01-01
A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.
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The VLT-FLAMES survey of massive stars: mass loss and rotation of early-type stars in the SMC
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mokiem, M. R.; de Koter, A.; Evans, C. J.; Puls, J.; Smartt, S. J.; Crowther, P. A.; Herrero, A.; Langer, N.; Lennon, D. J.; Najarro, F.; Villamariz, M. R.; Yoon, S.-C.
2006-09-01
We have studied the optical spectra of a sample of 31 O-and early B-type stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud, 21 of which are associated with the young massive cluster NGC 346. Stellar parameters are determined using an automated fitting method (Mokiem et al. 2005, A&A, 441, 711), which combines the stellar atmosphere code FASTWIND (Puls et al. 2005, A&A, 435, 669) with the genetic algorithm based optimisation routine PIKAIA (Charbonneau 1995, ApJS, 101, 309). Comparison with predictions of stellar evolution that account for stellar rotation does not result in a unique age, though most stars are best represented by an age of 1-3 Myr. The automated method allows for a detailed determination of the projected rotational velocities. The present day v_r sin i distribution of the 21 dwarf stars in our sample is consistent with an underlying rotational velocity (v_r) distribution that can be characterised by a mean velocity of about 160 - 190 km s-1 and an effective half width of 100 - 150 km s-1. The vr distribution must include a small percentage of slowly rotating stars. If predictions of the time evolution of the equatorial velocity for massive stars within the environment of the SMC are correct (Maeder & Meynet 2001, A&A, 373, 555), the young age of the cluster implies that this underlying distribution is representative for the initial rotational velocity distribution. The location in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram of the stars showing helium enrichment is in qualitative agreement with evolutionary tracks accounting for rotation, but not for those ignoring v_r. The mass loss rates of the SMC objects having luminosities of log L*/L⊙ ≳ 5.4 are in excellent agreement with predictions by Vink et al. (2001, A&A, 369, 574). However, for lower luminosity stars the winds are too weak to determine dot{M} accurately from the optical spectrum. Three targets were classifiedas Vz stars, two of which are located close to the theoretical zero-age main sequence. Three lower luminosity targets that were not classified as Vz stars are also found to lie near the ZAMS. We argue that this is related to a temperature effect inhibiting cooler from displaying the spectral features required for the Vz luminosity class.
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Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.
2015-12-01
Renewal processes, point prccesses in which intervals between consecutive events are independently and identically distributed, are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism and forecast the next earthquakes. However, one of the difficulties in applying recurrent earthquake models is the scarcity of the historical data. Most studied fault segments have few, or only one observed earthquake that often have poorly constrained historic and/or radiocarbon ages. The maximum likelihood estimate from such a small data set can have a large bias and error, which tends to yield high probability for the next event in a very short time span when the recurrence intervals have similar lengths. On the other hand, recurrence intervals at a fault depend on the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion in average. In addition, recurrence times are also fluctuated by nearby earthquakes or fault activities which encourage or discourage surrounding seismicity. These factors have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus, this paper introduces a spatial structure on the key parameters of renewal processes for recurrent earthquakes and estimates it by using spatial statistics. Spatial variation of mean and variance parameters of recurrence times are estimated in Bayesian framework and the next earthquakes are forecasted by Bayesian predictive distributions. The proposal model is applied for recurrent earthquake catalog in Japan and its result is compared with the current forecast adopted by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.
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Is red cell distribution width a novel biomarker of breast cancer activity? Data from a pilot study.
Seretis, Charalampos; Seretis, Fotios; Lagoudianakis, Emmanouil; Gemenetzis, George; Salemis, Nikolaos S
2013-04-01
Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a parameter of the standard full blood count tests, measuring the size variability of erythrocytes. Recently, its elevation has been proven to reliably reflect the extent systematic inflammation, mainly in cardiometabolic diseases. Up to date, its association with solid malignancies has been scarcely investigated. We performed a retrospective study, in order to examine if RDW values comparing elevation is correlated with the histopathological parameters of breast cancer (tumor size, grade, lymphatic spread, overexpression of hormonal receptors and HER2 protein), as well as to assess the existence of any differences in RDW comparing two age-matched groups of patients with benign and malignant breast lesions respectively. RDW was significantly higher in patients with breast cancer, when compared to the enrolled patients with fibroadenomas. Moreover, in the breast cancer group, RDW elevation was significantly correlated with larger primary tumors, higher number of infiltrated axillary lymph nodes and HER2 overexpression, while it was inversely associated with the tumor grade. Our pilot study demonstrated tha Red cell distribution width may be a novel biomarker of the activity of breast cancer. Although our preliminary findings need to be evaluated by studies with larger samples of patients, based on commonly accepted pathophysiological principles, we presume that they will be applicable not only in breast cancer, but also in other types of solid cancers, providing a simple and cost-effective biomarker of cancer surveillance.
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Is Red Cell Distribution Width a Novel Biomarker of Breast Cancer Activity? Data From a Pilot Study
Seretis, Charalampos; Seretis, Fotios; Lagoudianakis, Emmanouil; Gemenetzis, George; Salemis, Nikolaos S.
2013-01-01
Background Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a parameter of the standard full blood count tests, measuring the size variability of erythrocytes. Recently, its elevation has been proven to reliably reflect the extent systematic inflammation, mainly in cardiometabolic diseases. Up to date, its association with solid malignancies has been scarcely investigated. Methods We performed a retrospective study, in order to examine if RDW values comparing elevation is correlated with the histopathological parameters of breast cancer (tumor size, grade, lymphatic spread, overexpression of hormonal receptors and HER2 protein), as well as to assess the existence of any differences in RDW comparing two age-matched groups of patients with benign and malignant breast lesions respectively. Results RDW was significantly higher in patients with breast cancer, when compared to the enrolled patients with fibroadenomas. Moreover, in the breast cancer group, RDW elevation was significantly correlated with larger primary tumors, higher number of infiltrated axillary lymph nodes and HER2 overexpression, while it was inversely associated with the tumor grade. Conclusions Our pilot study demonstrated tha Red cell distribution width may be a novel biomarker of the activity of breast cancer. Although our preliminary findings need to be evaluated by studies with larger samples of patients, based on commonly accepted pathophysiological principles, we presume that they will be applicable not only in breast cancer, but also in other types of solid cancers, providing a simple and cost-effective biomarker of cancer surveillance. PMID:23518817
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Qu, Haibo; Lu, Su; Zhang, Wenjing; Xiao, Yuan; Ning, Gang; Sun, Huaiqiang
2016-10-01
We applied resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging(rfMRI)combined with graph theory to analyze 90 regions of the infantile small world neural network of the whole brain.We tried to get the following two points clear:1 whether the parameters of the node property of the infantile small world neural network are correlated with the level of infantile intelligence development;2 whether the parameters of the infantile small world neural network are correlated with the children’s baseline parameters,i.e.,the demographic parameters such as gender,age,parents’ education level,etc.Twelve cases of healthy infants were included in the investigation(9males and 3females with the average age of 33.42±8.42 months.)We then evaluated the level of infantile intelligence of all the cases and graded by Gesell Development Scale Test.We used a Siemens 3.0T Trio imaging system to perform resting-state(rs)EPI scans,and collected the BOLD functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging(fMRI)data.We performed the data processing with Statistical Parametric Mapping 5(SPM5)based on Matlab environment.Furthermore,we got the attributes of the whole brain small world and node attributes of 90 encephalic regions of templates of Anatomatic Automatic Labeling(ALL).At last,we carried out correlation study between the above-mentioned attitudes,intelligence scale parameters and demographic data.The results showed that many node attributes of small world neural network were closely correlated with intelligence scale parameters.Betweeness was mainly centered in thalamus,superior frontal gyrus,and occipital lobe(negative correlation).The r value of superior occipital gyrus associated with the individual and social intelligent scale was-0.729(P=0.007);degree was mainly centered in amygdaloid nucleus,superior frontal gyrus,and inferior parietal gyrus(positive correlation).The r value of inferior parietal gyrus associated with the gross motor intelligent scale was 0.725(P=0.008);efficiency was mainly centered in inferior frontal gyrus,inferior parietal gyrus,and insular lobe(positive correlation).The r value of inferior parietal gyrus associated with the language intelligent scale was 0.738(P=0.006);Anoda cluster coefficient(anodalCp)was centered in frontal lobe,inferior parietal gyrus,and paracentral lobule(positive correlation);Node shortest path length(nlp)was centered in frontal lobe,inferior parietal gyrus,and insular lobe.The distribution of the encephalic regions in the left and right brain was different.However,no statistical significance was found between the correlation of monolithic attributes of small world and intelligence scale.The encephalic regions,in which node attributes of small world were related to other demographic indices,were mainly centered in temporal lobe,cuneus,cingulated gyrus,angular gyrus,and paracentral lobule areas.Most of them belong to the default mode network(DMN).The node attributes of small world neural network are widely related to infantile intelligence level,moreover the distribution is characteristic in different encephalic regions.The distribution of dominant encephalic is in accordance the related functions.The existing correlations reflect the ever changing small world nervous network during infantile development.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aróztegui, Juan J.; Urcola, José J.; Fuentes, Manuel
1989-09-01
Commercial electric arc melted low-carbon steels, provided as I beams, were characterized both microstructurally and mechanically in the as-rolled, copper precipitation, and plastically pre-deformed conditions. Inclusion size distribution, ferrite grain size, pearlite volume fraction, precipitated volume fraction of copper, and size distribution of these precipitates were deter-mined by conventional quantitative optical and electron metallographic techniques. From the tensile tests conducted at a strain rate of 10-3 s-1 and impact Charpy V-notched tests carried out, stress/strain curves, yield stress, and impact-transition temperature were obtained. The spe-cific fractographic features of the fracture surfaces also were quantitatively characterized. The increases in yield stress and transition temperature experienced upon either aging or work hard-ening were related through empirical relationships. These dependences were analyzed semi-quantitatively by combining microscopic and macroscopic fracture criteria based on measured fundamental properties (fracture stress and yield stress) and observed fractographic parameters (crack nucleation distance and nuclei size). The rationale developed from these fracture criteria allows the semiquantitative prediction of the temperature transition shifts produced upon aging and work hardening. The values obtained are of the right order of magnitude.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maldonado, Jessica; Povich, Matthew S.
2016-01-01
We present a novel method for constraining the duration of star formation in very young, massive star-forming regions. Constraints on stellar population ages are derived from probabilistic HR diagrams (pHRDs) generated by fitting stellar model spectra to the infrared (IR) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of Herbig Ae/Be stars and their less-evolved, pre-main sequence progenitors. Stellar samples for the pHRDs are selected based on the detection of X-ray emission associated with the IR source, and the lack of detectible IR excess emission at wavelengths ≤4.5 µm. The SED model fits were used to create two-dimensional probability distributions of the stellar parameters, specifically bolometric luminosity versus temperature and mass versus evolutionary age. We present first results from the pHRD analysis of the relatively evolved Carina Nebula and the unevolved M17 SWex infrared dark cloud, which reveal the expected, strikingly different star formation durations between these two regions. In the future, we will apply this method to analyze available X-ray and IR data from the MYStIX project on other Galactic massive star forming regions within 3 kpc of the Sun.
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The global age distribution of granitic pegmatites
McCauley, Andrew; Bradley, Dwight C.
2014-01-01
An updated global compilation of 377 new and previously published ages indicates that granitic pegmatites range in age from Mesoarchean to Neogene and have a semi-periodic age distribution. Undivided granitic pegmatites show twelve age maxima: 2913, 2687, 2501, 1853, 1379, 1174, 988, 525, 483, 391, 319, and 72 Ma. These peaks correspond broadly with various proxy records of supercontinent assembly, including the age distributions of granites, detrital zircon grains, and passive margins. Lithium-cesium-tantalum (LCT) pegmatites have a similar age distribution to the undivided granitic pegmatites, with maxima at 2638, 1800, 962, 529, 485, 371, 309, and 274 Ma. Lithium and Ta resources in LCT pegmatites are concentrated in the Archean and Phanerozoic. While there are some Li resources from the Proterozoic, the dominantly bimodal distribution of resources is particularly evident for Ta. This distribution is similar to that of orogenic gold deposits, and has been interpreted to reflect the preservation potential of the orogenic belts where these deposits are formed. Niobium-yttrium-fluorine (NYF) pegmatites show similar age distributions to LCT pegmatites, but with a strong maximum at ca. 1000 Ma.
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Escovar, Jesús; Bello, Felio J; Morales, Alberto; Moncada, Ligia; Cárdenas, Estrella
2004-10-01
Lutzomyia spinicrassa is a vector of Leishmania braziliensis in Colombia. This sand fly has a broad geographical distribution in Colombia and Venezuela and it is found mainly in coffee plantations. Baseline biological growth data of L. spinicrassa were obtained under experimental laboratory conditions. The development time from egg to adult ranged from 59 to 121 days, with 12.74 weeks in average. Based on cohorts of 100 females, horizontal life table was constructed. The following predictive parameters were obtained: net rate of reproduction (8.4 females per cohort female), generation time (12.74 weeks), intrinsic rate of population increase (0.17), and finite rate of population increment (1.18). The reproductive value for each class age of the cohort females was calculated. Vertical life tables were elaborated and mortality was described for the generation obtained of the field cohort. In addition, for two successive generations, additive variance and heritability for fecundity were estimated.
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Knebel, William; Palmen, Mary; Dowell, James A; Gastonguay, Marc
2008-07-01
This analysis quantifies the population pharmacokinetics of subcutaneous and intravenous epoetin delta, an epoetin produced in a human cell line, in pediatric patients with chronic kidney disease and estimates the effects of covariate factors on epoetin delta and epoetin alfa pharmacokinetic parameters. Erythropoietin serum concentration data, taken from a phase III study conducted in 60 patients aged 1 to 17 years, were best described by a 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination. The typical point estimates were clearance (0.268 L/h), central volume of distribution (1.03 L), absorption rate constant (0.0554 h(-1)), and bioavailability (0.708) for a 35-kg male < or = 10 years who was predialysis and on subcutaneous epoetin delta treatment. Erythropoietin pharmacokinetic parameters were similar in pediatric patients as compared with adults when scaled by weight. The subcutaneous administration of epoetin alfa exhibited lower systemic bioavailability than subcutaneous administration of epoetin delta.
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Precision Parameter Estimation and Machine Learning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wandelt, Benjamin D.
2008-12-01
I discuss the strategy of ``Acceleration by Parallel Precomputation and Learning'' (AP-PLe) that can vastly accelerate parameter estimation in high-dimensional parameter spaces and costly likelihood functions, using trivially parallel computing to speed up sequential exploration of parameter space. This strategy combines the power of distributed computing with machine learning and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo techniques efficiently to explore a likelihood function, posterior distribution or χ2-surface. This strategy is particularly successful in cases where computing the likelihood is costly and the number of parameters is moderate or large. We apply this technique to two central problems in cosmology: the solution of the cosmological parameter estimation problem with sufficient accuracy for the Planck data using PICo; and the detailed calculation of cosmological helium and hydrogen recombination with RICO. Since the APPLe approach is designed to be able to use massively parallel resources to speed up problems that are inherently serial, we can bring the power of distributed computing to bear on parameter estimation problems. We have demonstrated this with the CosmologyatHome project.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Alexander Y.; Morris, Alan P.; Mohanty, Sitakanta
2009-07-01
Estimated parameter distributions in groundwater models may contain significant uncertainties because of data insufficiency. Therefore, adaptive uncertainty reduction strategies are needed to continuously improve model accuracy by fusing new observations. In recent years, various ensemble Kalman filters have been introduced as viable tools for updating high-dimensional model parameters. However, their usefulness is largely limited by the inherent assumption of Gaussian error statistics. Hydraulic conductivity distributions in alluvial aquifers, for example, are usually non-Gaussian as a result of complex depositional and diagenetic processes. In this study, we combine an ensemble Kalman filter with grid-based localization and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering techniques for updating high-dimensional, multimodal parameter distributions via dynamic data assimilation. We introduce innovative strategies (e.g., block updating and dimension reduction) to effectively reduce the computational costs associated with these modified ensemble Kalman filter schemes. The developed data assimilation schemes are demonstrated numerically for identifying the multimodal heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distributions in a binary facies alluvial aquifer. Our results show that localization and GMM clustering are very promising techniques for assimilating high-dimensional, multimodal parameter distributions, and they outperform the corresponding global ensemble Kalman filter analysis scheme in all scenarios considered.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Y.; Li, J.; Xu, H.
2016-01-01
Physically based distributed hydrological models (hereafter referred to as PBDHMs) divide the terrain of the whole catchment into a number of grid cells at fine resolution and assimilate different terrain data and precipitation to different cells. They are regarded to have the potential to improve the catchment hydrological process simulation and prediction capability. In the early stage, physically based distributed hydrological models are assumed to derive model parameters from the terrain properties directly, so there is no need to calibrate model parameters. However, unfortunately the uncertainties associated with this model derivation are very high, which impacted their application in flood forecasting, so parameter optimization may also be necessary. There are two main purposes for this study: the first is to propose a parameter optimization method for physically based distributed hydrological models in catchment flood forecasting by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and to test its competence and to improve its performances; the second is to explore the possibility of improving physically based distributed hydrological model capability in catchment flood forecasting by parameter optimization. In this paper, based on the scalar concept, a general framework for parameter optimization of the PBDHMs for catchment flood forecasting is first proposed that could be used for all PBDHMs. Then, with the Liuxihe model as the study model, which is a physically based distributed hydrological model proposed for catchment flood forecasting, the improved PSO algorithm is developed for the parameter optimization of the Liuxihe model in catchment flood forecasting. The improvements include adoption of the linearly decreasing inertia weight strategy to change the inertia weight and the arccosine function strategy to adjust the acceleration coefficients. This method has been tested in two catchments in southern China with different sizes, and the results show that the improved PSO algorithm could be used for the Liuxihe model parameter optimization effectively and could improve the model capability largely in catchment flood forecasting, thus proving that parameter optimization is necessary to improve the flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological models. It also has been found that the appropriate particle number and the maximum evolution number of PSO algorithm used for the Liuxihe model catchment flood forecasting are 20 and 30 respectively.
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Modeled ground water age distributions
Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.
2009-01-01
The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.
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Universality in the tail of musical note rank distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beltrán del Río, M.; Cocho, G.; Naumis, G. G.
2008-09-01
Although power laws have been used to fit rank distributions in many different contexts, they usually fail at the tails. Languages as sequences of symbols have been a popular subject for ranking distributions, and for this purpose, music can be treated as such. Here we show that more than 1800 musical compositions are very well fitted by the first kind two parameter beta distribution, which arises in the ranking of multiplicative stochastic processes. The parameters a and b are obtained for classical, jazz and rock music, revealing interesting features. Specially, we have obtained a clear trend in the values of the parameters for major and minor tonal modes. Finally, we discuss the distribution of notes for each octave and its connection with the ranking of the notes.
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On the robustness of a Bayes estimate. [in reliability theory
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Canavos, G. C.
1974-01-01
This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lepper, Kenneth Errol
Scope and method of study. Part I: In its simplest expression a luminescence age is the natural absorbed radiation dose (De) divided by the in-situ dose rate. The experimental techniques of Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating have evolved to the point were hundreds of Des, and therefore depositional ages can be quickly and conveniently determined for a single sediment sample. The first major objective of this research was to develop an objective analysis method for analyzing dose distribution data and selecting an age-representative dose (Dp). The analytical method was developed based on dose data sets collected from 3 eolian and 3 fluvial sediment samples from Central Oklahoma. Findings and conclusions. Part I: An objective method of presenting the dose distribution data, and a mathematically rigorous means of determining the Dp, as well as a statistically meaningful definition of the uncertainty in Dp have been proposed. The concept of experimental error deconvolution was introduced. In addition a set of distribution shape parameters to facilitate comparison among samples have been defined. These analytical techniques hold the potential to greatly enhance the accuracy and utility of OSL dating for young fluvial sediments. Scope and method of study. Part II: The second major objective of this research was to propose the application of luminescence dating to sediments on Mars. A set of fundamental luminescence dating properties was evaluated for a martian surface materials analog and a polar deposit contextual analog. Findings and conclusions. Part II: The luminescence signals measured from the analogs were found to have a wide dynamic dose response range with no unusual or prohibitive short-term instabilities and were readily reset by exposure to sunlight. These properties form a stable base for continued investigations toward the development of luminescence dating instruments and procedures for Mars.
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Spatial analysis of cities using Renyi entropy and fractal parameters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Yanguang; Feng, Jian
2017-12-01
The spatial distributions of cities fall into two groups: one is the simple distribution with characteristic scale (e.g. exponential distribution), and the other is the complex distribution without characteristic scale (e.g. power-law distribution). The latter belongs to scale-free distributions, which can be modeled with fractal geometry. However, fractal dimension is not suitable for the former distribution. In contrast, spatial entropy can be used to measure any types of urban distributions. This paper is devoted to generalizing multifractal parameters by means of dual relation between Euclidean and fractal geometries. The main method is mathematical derivation and empirical analysis, and the theoretical foundation is the discovery that the normalized fractal dimension is equal to the normalized entropy. Based on this finding, a set of useful spatial indexes termed dummy multifractal parameters are defined for geographical analysis. These indexes can be employed to describe both the simple distributions and complex distributions. The dummy multifractal indexes are applied to the population density distribution of Hangzhou city, China. The calculation results reveal the feature of spatio-temporal evolution of Hangzhou's urban morphology. This study indicates that fractal dimension and spatial entropy can be combined to produce a new methodology for spatial analysis of city development.
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Fractography evolution in accelerated aging of UHMWPE after gamma irradiation in air.
Medel, F; Gómez-Barrena, E; García-Alvarez, F; Ríos, R; Gracia-Villa, L; Puértolas, J A
2004-01-01
We studied the fracture surface evolution of ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) specimens, manufactured from GUR 1050 compression moulded sheets, after gamma sterilisation in air followed by different aging times after thermal treatment at 120 degrees C. Degradation profiles were obtained by FTIR and DSC measurements after 0, 7, 14, 24 and 36h aging. We observed by SEM the morphology patterns at these aging times, in surface fractographies after uniaxial tensile test of standardised samples. The results pointed out clear differences between short and long aging times. At shorter times, 7h, the behaviour was similar to non-degraded UHMWPE, exhibiting ductile behaviour. At longer times, 24-36h, this thermal protocol provided a highly degraded zone in the subsurface, similar to the white band found after gamma irradiation in air followed by natural aging, although closer to the surface, at 150-200mum. The microstructure of this oxidation zone, similarly found in gamma irradiated samples shelf-aged for 6-7 years, although with different distribution of microvoids, was formed by fibrils, associated with embrittlement of the oxidised UHMWPE. In addition, the evolution of the oxidation index, the enthalpy content, the mechanical parameters, and the depth of the oxidation front deduced from the fractographies versus aging time showed that a changing behaviour in the degradation rate appeared at intermediate aging times.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Smith, O. E.; Adelfang, S. I.; Tubbs, J. D.
1982-01-01
A five-parameter gamma distribution (BGD) having two shape parameters, two location parameters, and a correlation parameter is investigated. This general BGD is expressed as a double series and as a single series of the modified Bessel function. It reduces to the known special case for equal shape parameters. Practical functions for computer evaluations for the general BGD and for special cases are presented. Applications to wind gust modeling for the ascent flight of the space shuttle are illustrated.
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Estimation of Item Parameters and the GEM Algorithm.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tsutakawa, Robert K.
The models and procedures discussed in this paper are related to those presented in Bock and Aitkin (1981), where they considered the 2-parameter probit model and approximated a normally distributed prior distribution of abilities by a finite and discrete distribution. One purpose of this paper is to clarify the nature of the general EM (GEM)…
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Uncertainty estimation of the self-thinning process by Maximum-Entropy Principle
Shoufan Fang; George Z. Gertner
2000-01-01
When available information is scarce, the Maximum-Entropy Principle can estimate the distributions of parameters. In our case study, we estimated the distributions of the parameters of the forest self-thinning process based on literature information, and we derived the conditional distribution functions and estimated the 95 percent confidence interval (CI) of the self-...
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Basketball Performance Is Related to Maturity and Relative Age in Elite Adolescent Players.
Torres-Unda, Jon; Zarrazquin, Idoia; Gravina, Leyre; Zubero, Jaime; Seco, Jesús; Gil, Susana M; Gil, Javier; Irazusta, Jon
2016-05-01
During a national championship, the anthropometric, physiological, and maturation characteristics of 13- to 14-year-old players of elite basketball teams and their association with sport performance were analyzed. Body parameters (weight, height, skinfold thicknesses, and lengths) were measured and physiological capacities assessed by sprint (20 m) and jump tests (i.e., countermovement jump with arm swing). Chronological age (CA) and maturity offset (years from age at peak height velocity; YAPHV) were calculated, and then predicted age at peak height velocity, as the difference between CA and YAPHV. Game performance was assessed with point averages and the performance index rating (PIR). The birth-date distribution of players was biased, those born early in the selection year outnumbering those born later. Anthropometric analysis indicated that players who performed better had longer body lengths. Physiological testing showed that semi-finalists had better sprint performance than quarter-finalists and those players with greater jump capacity scored more points. Early maturation and advanced maturity status were also associated with better PIR and scored points per game. Multiple blockwise regression analysis showed that, among the factors analyzed, YAPHV was the best predictor of basketball performance. In conclusion, around puberty, physical and physiological parameters associated with maturity and CA are important in determining the success of elite basketball players. Consequently, boys who are born in the second half of the year and/or late maturing tend to be marginalized or totally excluded, and not given the chance to play under equal conditions; their careers may then be held back by the relative disadvantage associated with inexperience.
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A close relationship between verbal memory and SN/VTA integrity in young and older adults.
Düzel, Sandra; Schütze, Hartmut; Stallforth, Sabine; Kaufmann, Jörn; Bodammer, Nils; Bunzeck, Nico; Münte, Thomas F; Lindenberger, Ulman; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Düzel, Emrah
2008-11-01
Age-related dysfunction in dopaminergic neuromodulation is assumed to contribute to age-associated memory impairment. However, to date there are no in vivo data on how structural parameters of the substantia nigra/ventral tegmental area (SN/VTA), the main origin of dopaminergic projections, relate to memory performance in healthy young and older adults. We investigated this relationship in a cross-sectional study including data from the hippocampus and frontal white matter (FWM) and also assessing working memory span and attention. In groups of young and older adults matched for the variance of their age distribution, gender and body mass index, we observed a robust positive correlation between Magnetization Transfer Ratio (MTR)--a measure of structural integrity--of the SN/VTA and FWM with verbal learning and memory performance among older adults, while there was a negative correlation in the young. Two additional imaging parameters, anisotropy of diffusion and diffusion coefficient, suggested that in older adults FWM changes reflected vascular pathology while SN/VTA changes pointed towards neuronal loss and loss of water content. The negative correlation in the young possibly reflected maturational changes. Multiple regression analyses indicated that in both young and older adults, SN/VTA MTR explained more variance of verbal learning and memory than FWM MTR or hippocampal MTR, and contributed less to explaining variance of working memory span. Together these findings indicate that structural integrity in the SN/VTA has a relatively selective impact on verbal learning and memory and undergoes specific changes from young adulthood to older age that qualitatively differ from changes in the FWM and hippocampus.
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Connections between Star Cluster Populations and Their Host Galaxy Nuclear Rings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, Chao; de Grijs, Richard; Ho, Luis C.
2018-04-01
Nuclear rings are excellent laboratories for probing diverse phenomena such as the formation and evolution of young massive star clusters and nuclear starbursts, as well as the secular evolution and dynamics of their host galaxies. We have compiled a sample of 17 galaxies with nuclear rings, which are well resolved by high-resolution Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope imaging. For each nuclear ring, we identified the ring star cluster population, along with their physical properties (ages, masses, and extinction values). We also determined the integrated ring properties, including the average age, total stellar mass, and current star formation rate (SFR). We find that Sb-type galaxies tend to have the highest ring stellar mass fraction with respect to the host galaxy, and this parameter is correlated with the ring’s SFR surface density. The ring SFRs are correlated with their stellar masses, which is reminiscent of the main sequence of star-forming galaxies. There are striking correlations between star-forming properties (i.e., SFR and SFR surface density) and nonaxisymmetric bar parameters, appearing to confirm previous inferences that strongly barred galaxies tend to have lower ring SFRs, although the ring star formation histories turn out to be significantly more complicated. Nuclear rings with higher stellar masses tend to be associated with lower cluster mass fractions, but there is no such relation for the ages of the rings. The two youngest nuclear rings in our sample, NGC 1512 and NGC 4314, which have the most extreme physical properties, represent the young extremity of the nuclear ring age distribution.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gamo, Masashi; Ono, Kyoko; Nakanishi, Junko
2006-05-15
A meta-analysis was conducted to derive age- and gender-specific dose-response relationships between urinary cadmium (Cd) concentration and {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulinuria ({beta}2MG-uria) under environmental exposure. {beta}2MG-uria was defined by a cutoff point of 1000 {mu}g {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulin/g creatinine. We proposed a model for describing the relationships among the interindividual variabilities in urinary Cd concentration, the ratio of Cd concentrations in the target organ and in urine, and the threshold Cd concentration in the target organ. The parameters in the model were determined so that good agreement might be achieved between the prevalence rates of {beta}2MG-uria reported in the literature andmore » those estimated by the model. In this analysis, only the data from the literature on populations environmentally exposed to Cd were used. Using the model and estimated parameters, the prevalence rate of {beta}2MG-uria can be estimated for an age- and gender-specific subpopulation for which the distribution of urinary Cd concentrations is known. The maximum permissible level of urinary Cd concentration was defined as the maximum geometric mean of the urinary Cd concentration in an age- and gender-specific subpopulation that would not result in a statistically significant increase in the prevalence rate of {beta}2MG-uria. This was estimated to be approximately 3 {mu}g/g creatinine for a population in a small geographical area and approximately 2 {mu}g/g creatinine for a nationwide population.« less
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IN-SYNC. IV. The Young Stellar Population in the Orion A Molecular Cloud
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Da Rio, Nicola; Tan, Jonathan C.; Covey, Kevin R.; Cottaar, Michiel; Foster, Jonathan B.; Cullen, Nicholas C.; Tobin, John J.; Kim, Jinyoung S.; Meyer, Michael R.; Nidever, David L.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Chojnowski, S. Drew; Flaherty, Kevin M.; Majewski, Steve; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Zasowski, Gail; Pan, Kaike
2016-02-01
We present the results of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey APOGEE INfrared Spectroscopy of Young Nebulous Clusters program (IN-SYNC) survey of the Orion A molecular cloud. This survey obtained high-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy of about 2700 young pre-main-sequence stars on a ˜ 6^\\circ field of view. We have measured accurate stellar parameters ({T}{{eff}}, {log}g, v{sin}I) and extinctions and placed the sources in the Hertzsprung-Russel diagram (HRD). We have also extracted radial velocities for the kinematic characterization of the population. We compare our measurements with literature results to assess the performance and accuracy of the survey. Source extinction shows evidence for dust grains that are larger than those in the diffuse interstellar medium: we estimate an average RV = 5.5 in the region. Importantly, we find a clear correlation between HRD inferred ages and spectroscopic surface-gravity-inferred ages and between extinction and disk presence; this strongly suggests a real spread of ages larger than a few Myr. Focusing on the young population around NGC 1980/ι Ori, which has previously been suggested to be a separate, foreground, older cluster, we confirm its older (˜5 Myr) age and low AV, but considering that its radial velocity distribution is indistinguishable from Orion A’s population, we suggest that NGC 1980 is part of Orion A’s star formation activity. Based on their stellar parameters and kinematic properties, we identify 383 new candidate members of Orion A, most of which are diskless sources in areas of the region poorly studied by previous works.
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Age-related differences in finger force control are characterized by reduced force production.
Vieluf, Solveig; Godde, Ben; Reuter, Eva-Maria; Voelcker-Rehage, Claudia
2013-01-01
It has been repeatedly shown that precise finger force control declines with age. The tasks and evaluation parameters used to reveal age-related differences vary between studies. In order to examine effects of task characteristics, young adults (18-25 years) and late middle-aged adults (55-65 years) performed precision grip tasks with varying speed and force requirements. Different outcome variables were used to evaluate age-related differences. Age-related differences were confirmed for performance accuracy (TWR) and variability (relative root mean square error, rRMSE). The task characteristics, however, influenced accuracy and variability in both age groups: Force modulation performance at higher speed was poorer than at lower speed and at fixed force levels than at force levels adjusted to the individual maximum forces. This effect tended to be stronger for older participants for the rRMSE. A curve fit confirmed the age-related differences for both spatial force tracking parameters (amplitude and intercept) and for one temporal parameter (phase shift), but not for the temporal parameter frequency. Additionally, matching the timing parameters of the sine wave seemed to be more important than matching the spatial parameters in both young adults and late middle-aged adults. However, the effect was stronger for the group of late middle-aged, even though maximum voluntary contraction was not significantly different between groups. Our data indicate that changes in the processing of fine motor control tasks with increasing age are caused by difficulties of late middle-aged adults to produce a predefined amount of force in a short time.
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Colin, Julie; Thomas, Mélanie H; Gregory-Pauron, Lynn; Pinçon, Anthony; Lanhers, Marie-Claire; Corbier, Catherine; Claudepierre, Thomas; Yen, Frances T; Oster, Thierry; Malaplate-Armand, Catherine
2017-06-01
Although a major risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD), the "aging" parameter is not systematically considered in preclinical validation of anti-AD drugs. To explore how aging affects neuronal reactivity to anti-AD agents, the ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF)-associated pathway was chosen as a model. Comparison of the neuroprotective properties of CNTF in 6- and 18-month old mice revealed that CNTF resistance in the older animals is associated with the exclusion of the CNTF-receptor subunits from rafts and their subsequent dispersion to non-raft cortical membrane domains. This age-dependent membrane remodeling prevented both the formation of active CNTF-receptor complexes and the activation of prosurvival STAT3 and ERK1/2 pathways, demonstrating that age-altered membranes impaired the reactivity of potential therapeutic targets. CNTF-receptor distribution and CNTF signaling responses were improved in older mice receiving dietary docosahexaenoic acid, with CNTF-receptor functionality being similar to those of younger mice, pointing toward dietary intervention as a promising adjuvant strategy to maintain functional neuronal membranes, thus allowing the associated receptors to respond appropriately to anti-AD agents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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A summary of selected early results from the ERTS-1 menhaden experiment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stevenson, W. H. (Principal Investigator); Kemmerer, A. J.; Benigno, J. A.; Reese, G. B.; Minkler, F. C.
1973-01-01
The author has identified the following significant results. Imagery from ERTS-1 satellite was used in conjunction with aerial photographically-sensed menhaden distribution information, sea truth oceanographic measurements, and commercial fishing information from a 8685 square kilometer study area in the north-central portion of the Gulf of Mexico to demonstrate relationships between selected oceanographic parameters and menhaden distribution, ERTS-1 imagery and menhaden distribution, and ERTS-1 imagery and oceanographic parameters. ERTS-1, MSS band 5 imagery density levels correlated with photographically detected menhaden distribution patterns and could be explained based on sea truth Secchi disc transparency and water depth measurements. These two parameters, together with surface salinity, Forel-Ule color, and chlorophyll-a also were found to correlate significantly with menhaden distribution. Eight empirical models were developed which provided menhaden distribution predictions for the study area on combinations of Secchi disc transparency, water depth, surface salinity, and Forel-Ule color measurements.
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Factorization and reduction methods for optimal control of distributed parameter systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Burns, J. A.; Powers, R. K.
1985-01-01
A Chandrasekhar-type factorization method is applied to the linear-quadratic optimal control problem for distributed parameter systems. An aeroelastic control problem is used as a model example to demonstrate that if computationally efficient algorithms, such as those of Chandrasekhar-type, are combined with the special structure often available to a particular problem, then an abstract approximation theory developed for distributed parameter control theory becomes a viable method of solution. A numerical scheme based on averaging approximations is applied to hereditary control problems. Numerical examples are given.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kolbe, T.; Abbott, B. W.; Marçais, J.; Thomas, Z.; Aquilina, L.; Labasque, T.; Pinay, G.; De Dreuzy, J. R.
2016-12-01
Groundwater transit time and flow path are key factors controlling nitrogen retention and removal capacity at the catchment scale (Abbott et al., 2016), but the relative importance of hydrogeological and topographical factors in determining these parameters remains uncertain (Kolbe et al., 2016). To address this unknown, we used numerical modelling techniques calibrated with CFC groundwater age data to quantify transit time and flow path in an unconfined aquifer in Brittany, France. We assessed the relative importance of parameters (aquifer depth, porosity, arrangement of geological layers, and permeability profile), hydrology (recharge rate), and topography in determining characteristic flow distances (Leray et al., 2016). We found that groundwater flow was highly local (mean travel distance of 350 m) but also relatively old (mean CFC age of 40 years). Sensitivity analysis revealed that groundwater travel distances were not sensitive to geological parameters within the constraints of the CFC age data. However, circulation was sensitive to topography in lowland areas where the groundwater table was close to the land surface, and to recharge rate in upland areas where water input modulated the free surface of the aquifer. We quantified these differences with a local groundwater ratio (rGW-LOCAL) defined as the mean groundwater travel distance divided by the equivalent surface distance water would have traveled along the land surface. Lowland rGW-LOCAL was near 1, indicating primarily topographic controls. Upland rGW-LOCALwas 1.6, meaning the groundwater recharge area was substantially larger than the topographically-defined catchment. This ratio was applied to other catchments in Brittany to test its relevance in comparing controls on groundwater circulation within and among catchments. REFERENCES Abbott et al., 2016, Using multi-tracer inference to move beyond single-catchment ecohydrology. Earth-Science Reviews. Kolbe et al., 2016, Coupling 3D groundwater modeling with CFC-based age dating to classify local groundwater circulation in an unconfined crystalline aquifer. J. Hydrol. Leray et al., 2016, Residence time distributions for hydrologic systems: Mechanistic foundations and steady-state analytical solutions. J. Hydrol.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pavuluri, Chandra Mouli; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Swaminathan, T.
2015-02-01
To better understand the photochemical production and diurnal distributions of organic and inorganic aerosols in the tropical coastal Indian atmosphere, the aerosol (TSP) samples were collected every 3 h during 30-31 January, 14-15 February and 28-29 May 2007 from Chennai and studied for total carbon (TC) and nitrogen (TN) and their stable isotope ratios (δ13CTC and δ15NTN), carbonaceous components, inorganic ions, diacids, ketoacids and α-dicarbonyls. Time-resolved distributions of bulk parameters, inorganic ions, and diacids and related compounds, except for few species, did not show any clear diurnal trend but showed peaks at 6-9 h during all the study periods, except for the peak at 15-18 h on 28 May. SO42-, C2 - C6 diacids, ketoacids and α-dicarbonyls in February and on 29 May showed a diurnal trend. δ13CTC and δ15NTN stayed relatively constant during the study periods but showed 13C depletion (in January) and 15 N enrichment when TC and TN peaked. Based on these results together with air mass trajectories, we found that the diurnal distributions of Chennai aerosols are mainly influenced by land/sea breeze and the aged (photochemically processed) air masses, although in situ photochemical production and nighttime chemistry of secondary aerosol species, particularly C2-C4 diacids and SO42-, are significant. The characteristics of seasonal variations of carbonaceous components, and diacids and related compounds and comparisons of δ13CTC and δ15NTN of Chennai aerosols with the isotopic signatures of the point sources inferred that biofuel/biomass burning in South and Southeast Asia are the major sources of aerosols (TSP).
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Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen; Muljadi, Eduard; ...
2016-01-01
This paper proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of themore » hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system. The performance of the proposed approach is compared to some classic methods in later sections of the paper.« less
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On the behavior of certain ink aging curves.
Cantú, Antonio A
2017-09-01
This work treats writing inks, particularly ballpoint pen inks. It reviews those ink aging methods that are based on the analysis (measurement) of ink solvents (e.g., 2-phenoxyethanol, which is the most common among ballpoint pen inks). Each method involves measurements that are components of an ink aging parameter associated with the method. Only mass independent parameters are considered. An ink solvent from an ink that is on an air-exposed substrate will evaporate at a decreasing rate and is never constant as the ink ages. An ink aging parameter should reflect this behavior. That is, the graph of a parameter's experimentally-determined values plotted against ink age (which yields the ink aging curve) should show this behavior. However, some experimentally-determined aging curves contain outlying points that are below or above where they should be or points corresponding to different ages that have the same ordinate (parameter value). Such curves, unfortunately, are useless since such curves show that an ink can appear older or younger than what it should be in one or more of its points or have the same age in two or more of its points. This work explains that one cause of this unexpected behavior is that the parameter values were improperly determined such as when a measurement is made of an ink solvent that is not completely extracted (removed) from an ink sample with a chosen extractor such as dry heat or a solvent. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Azimuthally invariant Mueller-matrix mapping of biological optically anisotropic network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ushenko, Yu. O.; Vanchuliak, O.; Bodnar, G. B.; Ushenko, V. O.; Grytsyuk, M.; Pavlyukovich, N.; Pavlyukovich, O. V.; Antonyuk, O.
2017-09-01
A new technique of Mueller-matrix mapping of polycrystalline structure of histological sections of biological tissues is suggested. The algorithms of reconstruction of distribution of parameters of linear and circular dichroism of histological sections liver tissue of mice with different degrees of severity of diabetes are found. The interconnections between such distributions and parameters of linear and circular dichroism of liver of mice tissue histological sections are defined. The comparative investigations of coordinate distributions of parameters of amplitude anisotropy formed by Liver tissue with varying severity of diabetes (10 days and 24 days) are performed. The values and ranges of change of the statistical (moments of the 1st - 4th order) parameters of coordinate distributions of the value of linear and circular dichroism are defined. The objective criteria of cause of the degree of severity of the diabetes differentiation are determined.
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Extended Czjzek model applied to NMR parameter distributions in sodium metaphosphate glass
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vasconcelos, Filipe; Cristol, Sylvain; Paul, Jean-François; Delevoye, Laurent; Mauri, Francesco; Charpentier, Thibault; Le Caër, Gérard
2013-06-01
The extended Czjzek model (ECM) is applied to the distribution of NMR parameters of a simple glass model (sodium metaphosphate, NaPO3) obtained by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Accurate NMR tensors, electric field gradient (EFG) and chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) are calculated from density functional theory (DFT) within the well-established PAW/GIPAW framework. The theoretical results are compared to experimental high-resolution solid-state NMR data and are used to validate the considered structural model. The distributions of the calculated coupling constant CQ ∝ |Vzz| and the asymmetry parameter ηQ that characterize the quadrupolar interaction are discussed in terms of structural considerations with the help of a simple point charge model. Finally, the ECM analysis is shown to be relevant for studying the distribution of CSA tensor parameters and gives new insight into the structural characterization of disordered systems by solid-state NMR.
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Extended Czjzek model applied to NMR parameter distributions in sodium metaphosphate glass.
Vasconcelos, Filipe; Cristol, Sylvain; Paul, Jean-François; Delevoye, Laurent; Mauri, Francesco; Charpentier, Thibault; Le Caër, Gérard
2013-06-26
The extended Czjzek model (ECM) is applied to the distribution of NMR parameters of a simple glass model (sodium metaphosphate, NaPO3) obtained by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Accurate NMR tensors, electric field gradient (EFG) and chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) are calculated from density functional theory (DFT) within the well-established PAW/GIPAW framework. The theoretical results are compared to experimental high-resolution solid-state NMR data and are used to validate the considered structural model. The distributions of the calculated coupling constant C(Q) is proportional to |V(zz)| and the asymmetry parameter η(Q) that characterize the quadrupolar interaction are discussed in terms of structural considerations with the help of a simple point charge model. Finally, the ECM analysis is shown to be relevant for studying the distribution of CSA tensor parameters and gives new insight into the structural characterization of disordered systems by solid-state NMR.
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Economic design of control charts considering process shift distributions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vommi, Vijayababu; Kasarapu, Rukmini V.
2014-09-01
Process shift is an important input parameter in the economic design of control charts. Earlier control chart designs considered constant shifts to occur in the mean of the process for a given assignable cause. This assumption has been criticized by many researchers since it may not be realistic to produce a constant shift whenever an assignable cause occurs. To overcome this difficulty, in the present work, a distribution for the shift parameter has been considered instead of a single value for a given assignable cause. Duncan's economic design model for chart has been extended to incorporate the distribution for the process shift parameter. It is proposed to minimize total expected loss-cost to obtain the control chart parameters. Further, three types of process shifts namely, positively skewed, uniform and negatively skewed distributions are considered and the situations where it is appropriate to use the suggested methodology are recommended.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.
1993-01-01
New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Knapp, Julia L. A.; Cirpka, Olaf A.
2017-06-01
The complexity of hyporheic flow paths requires reach-scale models of solute transport in streams that are flexible in their representation of the hyporheic passage. We use a model that couples advective-dispersive in-stream transport to hyporheic exchange with a shape-free distribution of hyporheic travel times. The model also accounts for two-site sorption and transformation of reactive solutes. The coefficients of the model are determined by fitting concurrent stream-tracer tests of conservative (fluorescein) and reactive (resazurin/resorufin) compounds. The flexibility of the shape-free models give rise to multiple local minima of the objective function in parameter estimation, thus requiring global-search algorithms, which is hindered by the large number of parameter values to be estimated. We present a local-in-global optimization approach, in which we use a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method as global-search method to estimate a set of in-stream and hyporheic parameters. Nested therein, we infer the shape-free distribution of hyporheic travel times by a local Gauss-Newton method. The overall approach is independent of the initial guess and provides the joint posterior distribution of all parameters. We apply the described local-in-global optimization method to recorded tracer breakthrough curves of three consecutive stream sections, and infer section-wise hydraulic parameter distributions to analyze how hyporheic exchange processes differ between the stream sections.
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External calibration of polarimetric radars using point and distributed targets
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yueh, S. H.; Kong, J. A.; Shin, R. T.
1991-01-01
Polarimetric calibration algorithms using combinations of point targets and reciprocal distributed targets are developed. From the reciprocity relations of distributed targets, and equivalent point target response is derived. Then the problem of polarimetric calibration using two point targets and one distributed target reduces to that using three point targets, which has been previously solved. For calibration using one point target and one reciprocal distributed target, two cases are analyzed with the point target being a trihedral reflector or a polarimetric active radar calibrator (PARC). For both cases, the general solutions of the system distortion matrices are written as a product of a particular solution and a matrix with one free parameter. For the trihedral-reflector case, this free parameter is determined by assuming azimuthal symmetry for the distributed target. For the PARC case, knowledge of one ratio of two covariance matrix elements of the distributed target is required to solve for the free parameter. Numerical results are simulated to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed algorithms.
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External calibration of polarimetric radars using point and distributed targets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yueh, S. H.; Kong, J. A.; Shin, R. T.
1991-08-01
Polarimetric calibration algorithms using combinations of point targets and reciprocal distributed targets are developed. From the reciprocity relations of distributed targets, and equivalent point target response is derived. Then the problem of polarimetric calibration using two point targets and one distributed target reduces to that using three point targets, which has been previously solved. For calibration using one point target and one reciprocal distributed target, two cases are analyzed with the point target being a trihedral reflector or a polarimetric active radar calibrator (PARC). For both cases, the general solutions of the system distortion matrices are written as a product of a particular solution and a matrix with one free parameter. For the trihedral-reflector case, this free parameter is determined by assuming azimuthal symmetry for the distributed target. For the PARC case, knowledge of one ratio of two covariance matrix elements of the distributed target is required to solve for the free parameter. Numerical results are simulated to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed algorithms.
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Gradually truncated log-normal in USA publicly traded firm size distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gupta, Hari M.; Campanha, José R.; de Aguiar, Daniela R.; Queiroz, Gabriel A.; Raheja, Charu G.
2007-03-01
We study the statistical distribution of firm size for USA and Brazilian publicly traded firms through the Zipf plot technique. Sale size is used to measure firm size. The Brazilian firm size distribution is given by a log-normal distribution without any adjustable parameter. However, we also need to consider different parameters of log-normal distribution for the largest firms in the distribution, which are mostly foreign firms. The log-normal distribution has to be gradually truncated after a certain critical value for USA firms. Therefore, the original hypothesis of proportional effect proposed by Gibrat is valid with some modification for very large firms. We also consider the possible mechanisms behind this distribution.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lungu, Mihai; Lungu, Antoanetta; Stefu, Nicoleta; Neculae, Adrian; Strambeanu, Nicolae
2017-01-01
Air pollution is known to have many adverse effects, among which those on human health are considered the most important. Healthy people of all ages can be adversely affected by high levels of air pollutants. Nanoparticles can be considered among the most harmful of all pollutants as they can penetrate straight into the lungs and blood stream. Their role in the aging process has also recently been revealed. In Romania, practically in all important urban areas (Bucureşti, Iaşi, Timişoara, Braşov, Baia Mare, etc.) the daily limit values for airborne particulate matter are exceeded, so more efforts in controlling air quality are required, along with more research and policies with positive impact on reducing the pollutants concentration in air. The approaches that have been developed to assess the air quality and health impacts of pollution sources are based on analytical methods such as source apportionment, factor analyses, and the measurement of source-relevant indicator compounds. The goal of the present study is to offer preliminary but relevant information on the particulate matter distribution in the city of Timisoara, Romania. Measurements of inhalable coarse and fine particles in two areas of the city, the most affected by industrial particulate emissions, were performed in days with various meteorological conditions. Meteorological parameters for the specific measurement days were recorded (wind speed and direction, humidity, temperature, pressure, etc.) and the influence of these parameters on the particulate matter dispersion was studied. The results show that the meteorological conditions cause differences between airborne particulate matter distributions in different days in the same zones. Measurements were made in northern and southern areas of the city of Timisoara because previous results have shown high levels of airborne particulate matter in these areas.
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Population Pharmacokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wu, L.; Chow, D. S. L.; Putcha, L.
2013-01-01
Introduction: An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS).The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) was evaluated using data collected in Phase II IND protocols. We reported earlier statistically significant gender differences in PK parameters of INSCOP at a dose level of 0.4 mg. To identify covariates that influence PK parameters of INSCOP, we examined population covariates of INSCOP PK model for 0.4 mg dose. Methods: Plasma scopolamine concentrations versus time data were collected from 20 normal healthy human subjects (11 male/9 female) after a 0.4 mg dose. Phoenix NLME was employed for PK analysis of these data using gender, body weight and age as covariates for model selection. Model selection was based on a likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (-2LL). Statistical significance for base model building and individual covariate analysis was set at P less than 0.05{delta(-2LL)=3.84}. Results: A one-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order elimination best described INSCOP concentration ]time profiles. Inclusion of gender, body weight and age as covariates individually significantly reduced -2LL by the cut-off value of 3.84(P less than 0.05) when tested against the base model. After the forward stepwise selection and backward elimination steps, gender was selected to add to the final model which had significant influence on absorption rate constant (ka) and the volume of distribution (V) of INSCOP. Conclusion: A population pharmacokinetic model for INSCOP has been identified and gender was a significant contributing covariate for the final model. The volume of distribution and Ka were significantly higher in males than in females which confirm gender-dependent pharmacokinetics of scopolamine after administration of a 0.4 mg dose.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernández-Santos, Belén; Martínez, Carolina; García, Jose A.; Puerto, Angel
2004-10-01
Postfire regeneration in Cytisus oromediterraneus, a Mediterranean-basin mountain matorral species, shows a wide range of possibilities and variations in sexual and asexual regeneration. Its interpretation requires basic information on the below-ground structure of parent plants as well as on the origin and development of seedlings and various ramet (sprout clump) types: rootstock, basal-branch, and lateral-root ramets. Morphology and emergence of such ramets in C. oromediterraneus is similar to that in related species but with some specific features described here in detail. In order to determine if characteristics of 1-year-old populations depended on the age of the burned parent plants, two populations were investigated: (A 7-year-old, and B 14-year-old). In the most frequent populations in our study area, i.e. those from parent populations of ca. 7 years (A): a—plant density and biomass were highly variable and positively correlated; b—frequency distribution differed significantly from normal distribution for plant weight, but not for other parameters such as diameters, perimeter, and height, in which it did, however, show asymmetry; c—perimeter was the best parameter for estimating individuals' weight; d—there was a higher number of seedlings than ramets but their biomass was smaller; e—the size of seedlings and ramets showed wide variation. In comparison with population A (7-year-old) population B (14-year-old) showed: significantly higher density, slightly lower biomass, higher number of small individuals, mainly seedlings, and less vigorous resprouting. In general, 1 year after fire, Cytisus oromeditarraneus population density mainly depends on the germination response, while the above-ground biomass mainly depends on the vegetative response and the intensity of both of them is conditioned by parent plant age.
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Modelling the balance between quiescence and cell death in normal and tumour cell populations.
Spinelli, Lorenzo; Torricelli, Alessandro; Ubezio, Paolo; Basse, Britta
2006-08-01
When considering either human adult tissues (in vivo) or cell cultures (in vitro), cell number is regulated by the relationship between quiescent cells, proliferating cells, cell death and other controls of cell cycle duration. By formulating a mathematical description we see that even small alterations of this relationship may cause a non-growing population to start growing with doubling times characteristic of human tumours. Our model consists of two age structured partial differential equations for the proliferating and quiescent cell compartments. Model parameters are death rates from and transition rates between these compartments. The partial differential equations can be solved for the steady-age distributions, giving the distribution of the cells through the cell cycle, dependent on specific model parameter values. Appropriate formulas can then be derived for various population characteristic quantities such as labelling index, proliferation fraction, doubling time and potential doubling time of the cell population. Such characteristic quantities can be estimated experimentally, although with decreasing precision from in vitro, to in vivo experimental systems and to the clinic. The model can be used to investigate the effects of a single alteration of either quiescence or cell death control on the growth of the whole population and the non-trivial dependence of the doubling time and other observable quantities on particular underlying cell cycle scenarios of death and quiescence. The model indicates that tumour evolution in vivo is a sequence of steady-states, each characterised by particular death and quiescence rate functions. We suggest that a key passage of carcinogenesis is a loss of the communication between quiescence, death and cell cycle machineries, causing a defect in their precise, cell cycle dependent relationship.
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Pharmacokinetics and clinical application of intravenous valproate in Thai epileptic children.
Visudtibhan, Anannit; Bhudhisawadi, Kasama; Vaewpanich, Jarin; Chulavatnatol, Suvatna; Kaojareon, Sming
2011-03-01
Roles of intravenous administration of valproate in status epilepticus and serial seizures are documented in adults and children. Pharmacokinetic parameters are necessary to predict the optimum therapeutic level after administration. A cross-sectional study to determine the pharmacokinetic parameters and safety of intravenous valproate for future application was conducted in Thai children from January to December 2008. There were eleven children, age-range 1-15 years (mean age 9.5 years) enrolled. Valproate of 15-20 mg/kg was administrated intravenously at the rate of 3 mg/kg/min, followed by 6 mg/kg every 6 h. Valproate level was determined prior to the initial dose and at ½, 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 h postdose. Complete blood count, serum ammonia, and liver function tests were collected prior to the initial dose and at 6 h. Median loading dose was 19 mg/kg (range 15-20.5 mg/kg). Median maximum concentration at 30 min after infusion was 98.8 mcg/mL (range 67-161 mcg/mL). Median volume of distribution was 0.20 L/kg (range 0.15-0.53 L/kg). Median half-life was 9.5 h (range 4.4-24.2 h). Median clearance was 0.02 L/h/kg (range 0.01-0.05 L/h/kg). Six hours after initial dose, eight children did not have recurrent seizure. One child had brief seizure at 20 min after initial dose. Seizure recurred in two children at 4th and 5th hour. Asymptomatic transient elevation of serum ammonia was observed in two children. Volume of distribution of 0.20 L/kg could be applied for initial intravenous administration with a favorable efficacy. Copyright © 2010 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Pharmacokinetics of temozolomide given three times a day in pediatric and adult patients.
Riccardi, Anna; Mazzarella, Giorgio; Cefalo, Graziella; Garrè, Maria Luisa; Massimino, Maura; Barone, Carlo; Sandri, Alessandro; Ridola, Vita; Ruggiero, Antonio; Mastrangelo, Stefano; Lazzareschi, Ilaria; Caldarelli, Massimo; Maira, Giulio; Madon, Enrico; Riccardi, Riccardo
2003-12-01
To characterize and compare pharmacokinetic parameters in children and adults treated with temozolomide (TMZ) administered for 5 days in three doses daily, and to evaluate the possible relationship between AUC values and hematologic toxicity. TMZ pharmacokinetic parameters were characterized in pediatric and adult patients with primary central nervous system tumors treated with doses ranging from 120 to 200 mg/m2 per day, divided into three doses daily for 5 days. Plasma levels were measured over 8 h following oral administration in a fasting state. A total of 40 courses were studied in 22 children (mean age 10 years, range 3-16 years) and in 8 adults (mean age 30 years, range 19-54 years). In all patients, a linear relationship was found between systemic exposure (AUC) and increasing doses of TMZ. Time to peak concentration, elimination half-life, apparent clearance and volume of distribution were not related to TMZ dose. No differences were seen among TMZ C(max), t(1/2), V(d) or CL/F in children compared with adults. Intra- and interpatient variability of systemic exposure were limited in both children and adults. No statistically significant differences were found between the AUCs of children who experienced grade 4 hematologic toxicity and children who did not. No difference appears to exist between pharmacokinetic parameters in adults and children when TMZ is administered in three doses daily. Hematologic toxicity was not related to TMZ AUC. AUC measurement does not appear to be of any use in optimizing TMZ treatment.
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Statokinesigram normalization method.
de Oliveira, José Magalhães
2017-02-01
Stabilometry is a technique that aims to study the body sway of human subjects, employing a force platform. The signal obtained from this technique refers to the position of the foot base ground-reaction vector, known as the center of pressure (CoP). The parameters calculated from the signal are used to quantify the displacement of the CoP over time; there is a large variability, both between and within subjects, which prevents the definition of normative values. The intersubject variability is related to differences between subjects in terms of their anthropometry, in conjunction with their muscle activation patterns (biomechanics); and the intrasubject variability can be caused by a learning effect or fatigue. Age and foot placement on the platform are also known to influence variability. Normalization is the main method used to decrease this variability and to bring distributions of adjusted values into alignment. In 1996, O'Malley proposed three normalization techniques to eliminate the effect of age and anthropometric factors from temporal-distance parameters of gait. These techniques were adopted to normalize the stabilometric signal by some authors. This paper proposes a new method of normalization of stabilometric signals to be applied in balance studies. The method was applied to a data set collected in a previous study, and the results of normalized and nonnormalized signals were compared. The results showed that the new method, if used in a well-designed experiment, can eliminate undesirable correlations between the analyzed parameters and the subjects' characteristics and show only the experimental conditions' effects.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grison, Hana; Petrovsky, Eduard; Stejskalova, Sarka; Kapicka, Ales
2015-05-01
Identification of Andosols is primarily based upon the content of their colloidal constituents—clay and metal-humus complexes—and on the determining of andic properties. This needs time and cost-consuming geochemical analyses. Our primary aim of this study is to describe the magnetic and geochemical properties of soils rich in iron oxides derived from strongly magnetic volcanic basement (in this case Andosols). Secondary aim is to explore links between magnetic and chemical parameters of andic soils with respect to genesis factors: parent material age, precipitation, and thickness of the soil profile. Six pedons of andic properties, developed on basaltic lavas, were analyzed down to parent rock by a set of magnetic and geochemical methods. Magnetic data of soil and rock samples reflect the type, concentration, and particle-size distribution of ferrimagnetic minerals. Geochemical data include soil reaction (pH in H2O), cation exchange capacity, organic carbon, and different forms of extractable iron and aluminum content. Our results suggest the following: (1) magnetic measurements of low-field mass-specific magnetic susceptibility can be a reliable indicator for estimating andic properties, and in combination with thermomagnetic curves may be suitable for discriminating between alu-andic and sil-andic subtypes. (2) In the studied Andosols, strong relationships were found between (a) magnetic grain-size parameters, precipitation, and exchangeable bases; (b) concentration of ferrimagnetic particles and degree of crystallization of free iron; and (c) parameters reflecting changes in magneto-mineralogy and soil genesis (parent material age + soil depth).
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Tool Helps Utilities Assess Readiness for Electric Vehicle Charging (Fact Sheet)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Not Available
NREL research helps answer a fundamental question regarding electric vehicles: Is the grid ready to handle them? Environmental, economic and security concerns regarding oil consumption make electrifying the transportation sector a high national priority. NREL's Center for Transportation Technologies & Systems (CTTS) has developed a framework for utilities to evaluate the plug-in vehicle (PEV) readiness of distribution transformers. Combining a wealth of vehicle performance statistics with load data from partner utilities including the Hawaiian Electric Company and Xcel Energy, NREL analyzed the thermal loading characteristics of distribution transformers due to vehicle charging. After running millions of simulations replicating varying climatesmore » and conditions, NREL is now able to predict aging rates for transformers when PEVs are added to existing building loads. With the NREL tool, users define simulation parameters by inputting vehicle trip and weather data; transformer load profiles and ratings; PEV penetration, charging rates and battery sizes; utility rates; the number of houses on each transformer; and public charging availability. Transformer load profiles, drive cycles, and ambient temperature data are then run through the thermal model to produce a one-year timeseries of the hotspot temperature. Annual temperature durations are calculated to help determine the annual aging rate. Annual aging rate results are grouped by independent variables. The most useful measure is transformer mileage, a measure of how many electrically-driven miles must be supplied by the transformer. Once the spectrum analysis has been conducted for an area or utility, the outputs can be used to help determine if more detailed evaluation is necessary, or if transformer replacement is required. In the majority of scenarios, transformers have enough excess capacity to charge PEVs. Only in extreme cases does vehicle charging have negative long-term impact on transformers. In those cases, upgrades to larger transformers would be recommended. NREL analysis also showed opportunity for newly-installed smart grids to offset distribution demands by time-shifting the charging loads. Most importantly, the model demonstrated synergies between PEVs and distributed renewables, not only providing clean renewable energy for vehicles, but also reducing demand on the entire distribution infrastructure by supplying loads at the point of consumption.« less
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The DART Imaging And CaT Survey of the Fornax Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Battaglia, Giuseppina; Tolstoy, E.; Helmi, A.
2006-08-28
As part of the DART project we have used the ESO/2.2m Wide Field Imager in conjunction with the VLT/FLAMES* GIRAFFE spectrograph to study the detailed properties of the resolved stellar population of the Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxy out to and beyond its tidal radius. Fornax dSph has had a complicated evolution and contains significant numbers of young, intermediate age and old stars. We investigate the relation between these different components by studying their photometric, kinematic and abundance distributions. We re-derived the structural parameters of the Fornax dwarf spheroidal using our wide field imaging covering the galaxy out to its tidalmore » radius, and analyzed the spatial distribution of the Fornax stars of different ages as selected from Colour-Magnitude Diagram analysis. We have obtained accurate velocities and metallicities from spectra in the Ca II triplet wavelength region for 562 Red Giant Branch stars which have velocities consistent with membership in Fornax dwarf spheroidal. We have found evidence for the presence of at least three distinct stellar components: a young population (few 100 Myr old) concentrated in the center of the galaxy, visible as a Main Sequence in the Colour-Magnitude Diagram; an intermediate age population (2-8 Gyr old); and an ancient population (> 10Gyr), which are distinguishable from each other kinematically, from the metallicity distribution and in the spatial distribution of stars found in the Colour-Magnitude Diagram. From our spectroscopic analysis we find that the ''metal rich'' stars ([Fe/H] > -1.3) show a less extended and more concentrated spatial distribution, and display a colder kinematics than the ''metal poor'' stars ([Fe/H] < -1.3). There is tentative evidence that the ancient stellar population in the center of Fornax does not exhibit equilibrium kinematics. This could be a sign of a relatively recent accretion of external material, such as the merger of another galaxy or other means of gas accretion at some point in the fairly recent past, consistent with other recent evidence of substructure (Coleman et al. 2004, 2005).« less
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Parameter estimation in nonlinear distributed systems - Approximation theory and convergence results
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Banks, H. T.; Reich, Simeon; Rosen, I. G.
1988-01-01
An abstract approximation framework and convergence theory is described for Galerkin approximations applied to inverse problems involving nonlinear distributed parameter systems. Parameter estimation problems are considered and formulated as the minimization of a least-squares-like performance index over a compact admissible parameter set subject to state constraints given by an inhomogeneous nonlinear distributed system. The theory applies to systems whose dynamics can be described by either time-independent or nonstationary strongly maximal monotonic operators defined on a reflexive Banach space which is densely and continuously embedded in a Hilbert space. It is demonstrated that if readily verifiable conditions on the system's dependence on the unknown parameters are satisfied, and the usual Galerkin approximation assumption holds, then solutions to the approximating problems exist and approximate a solution to the original infinite-dimensional identification problem.
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Modeling of debris disks in Single and Binary stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
García, L.; Gómez, M.
2016-10-01
Infrared space observatories such as Spitzer and Herschel have allowed the detection of likely analogs to the Kuiper Belt in single as well as binary systems. The aim of this work is to characterize debris disks in single and binary stars and to identify features shared by the disks in both types of systems, as well as possible differences. We compiled a sample of 25 single and 14 binary stars (ages > 100 Myr) with flux measurements at λ >100 μm and evidence of infrared excesses attributed to the presence of debris disks. Then, we constructed and modeled the observed spectral energy distributions (SEDs), and compared the parameters of the disks of both samples. Both types of disks are relatively free of dust in the inner region (< 3-5 AU) and extend beyond 100 AU. No significant differences in the mass and dust size distributions of both samples are found.
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Potential effects of regional pumpage on groundwater age distribution
Zinn, Brendan A.; Konikow, Leonard F.
2007-01-01
Groundwater ages estimated from environmental tracers can help calibrate groundwater flow models. Groundwater age represents a mixture of traveltimes, with the distribution of ages determined by the detailed structure of the flow field, which can be prone to significant transient variability. Effects of pumping on age distribution were assessed using direct age simulation in a hypothetical layered aquifer system. A steady state predevelopment age distribution was computed first. A well field was then introduced, and pumpage caused leakage into the confined aquifer of older water from an overlying confining unit. Large changes in simulated groundwater ages occurred in both the aquifer and the confining unit at high pumping rates, and the effects propagated a substantial distance downgradient from the wells. The range and variance of ages contributing to the well increased substantially during pumping. The results suggest that the groundwater age distribution in developed aquifers may be affected by transient leakage from low‐permeability material, such as confining units, under certain hydrogeologic conditions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanford, W. E.; Fleming, B.; Pope, J.
2013-12-01
Base flow to individual streams has discharging groundwater with ages that vary widely between values of days to centuries or more. This distribution of ages has important repercussions for the response time of a watershed between change in land-use practices and the discharge of contaminants, such as nitrogen, to streams or coastal waterways. Lumped parameter models are frequently used to predict such watershed responses in shallow aquifers, but these usually assume homogeneous hydraulic properties. In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, however, over half of the terrain is underlain by fractured-rock, where heterogeneous hydraulic properties do not fit standard lumped-parameter model assumptions. In order to better understand the response behavior of a regional fractured-rock terrain, we developed a seven-million node, three-dimensional groundwater model of the Upper Potomac River Basin (~24,000 sq. km) using MODFLOW that includes siliciclastic, carbonate, and metamorphic rocks. Inverse modeling was undertaken to estimate regional values of hydraulic conductivity (K) using 200 water-level measurements in wells, and effective porosity using >100 environmental tracer (CFC-113, SF6, 3H, 3He) measurements from wells, springs and the Potomac River at the basin outlet. Results indicate a very strong depth-dependence of K, with values declining by 4-6 orders of magnitude within 100 m of land surface, with the bulk of the transmissivity being focused in the upper 10 m. This depth-dependent behavior has major implications for the watershed response time, as the base flows have ages that range over four orders of magnitude, as opposed to a shallow homogenous aquifer that usually has an equivalent range of less than two orders of magnitude. A tritium record from 1961-1991 in the Potomac River at the basin outflow can be reproduced by the model using advective transport and a single regional porosity value of 2-3 percent. In addition, the fit to the data can be improved at early and late times by assuming fracture porosity (1-2%) dominates transport at shallow (<10 m depth) depths, and matrix porosity (5-20%) dominates at deeper (>10 m) depths. Histograms of base-flow ages for individual subwatersheds in the basin have mean values of decades, but median values on the order of one year. Base-flow age is also predicted to increase substantially in these subwatersheds in the downstream direction.
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Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions
Liu, C.; Charpentier, R.R.; Su, J.
2011-01-01
Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log-geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log-geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log-geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.
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Newton/Poisson-Distribution Program
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.
1990-01-01
NEWTPOIS, one of two computer programs making calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715) and CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) used independently of one another. NEWTPOIS determines Poisson parameter for given cumulative probability, from which one obtains percentiles for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and percentiles for X(sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Program written in C.
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Age determination of female redhead ducks
Dane, C.W.; Johnson, D.H.
1975-01-01
Eighty-seven fall-collected wings from female redhead ducks (Aythya americana) were assigned to the adult or juvenile group based on 'tertial' and 'tertial covert' shape and wear. To obtain spring age-related characters from these fall-collected groupings, we considered parameters of flight feathers retained until after the first breeding season. Parameters measured included: markings on and width of greater secondary coverts, and length, weight, and diameter of primary feathers. The best age categorization was obtained with discriminant analysis based on a combination of the most accurately measured parameters. This analysis, applied to 81 wings with complete measurements, resulted in only 1 being incorrectly aged and 3 placed in a questionable category. Discriminant functions used with covert markings and the three 5th primary parameters were applied to 30 known-age juvenile, hand-reared redhead females, 28 were correctly aged, none was incorrectly aged, and only 2 were placed in the questionable category.
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Identifying Young Kepler Planet Host Stars from Keck–HIRES Spectra of Lithium
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berger, Travis A.; Howard, Andrew W.; Boesgaard, Ann Merchant
2018-03-01
The lithium doublet at 6708 Å provides an age diagnostic for main sequence FGK dwarfs. We measured the abundance of lithium in 1305 stars with detected transiting planets from the Kepler mission using high-resolution spectroscopy. Our catalog of lithium measurements from this sample has a range of abundance from A(Li) = 3.11 ± 0.07 to an upper limit of ‑0.84 dex. For a magnitude-limited sample that comprises 960 of the 1305 stars, our Keck–HIRES spectra have a median signal-to-noise ratio of 45 per pixel at ∼6700 Å with spectral resolution \\tfrac{λ }{{{Δ }}λ } = R = 55,000. We identify 80 young stars that have A(Li) values greater than the Hyades at their respective effective temperatures; these stars are younger than ∼650 Myr, the approximate age of the Hyades. We then compare the distribution of A(Li) with planet size, multiplicity, orbital period, and insolation flux. We find larger planets preferentially in younger systems, with an A–D two-sided test p-value = 0.002, a > 3σ confidence that the older and younger planet samples do not come from the same parent distribution. This is consistent with planet inflation/photoevaporation at early ages. The other planet parameters (Kepler planet multiplicity, orbital period, and insolation flux) are uncorrelated with age. Based on observations obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated jointly by the University of California and the California Institute of Technology. Keck time has been granted by the University of Hawaii, the University of California, and Caltech.
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Collisional evolution - an analytical study for the non steady-state mass distribution.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vieira Martins, R.
1999-05-01
To study the collisional evolution of asteroidal groups one can use an analytical solution for the self-similar collision cascades. This solution is suitable to study the steady-state mass distribution of the collisional fragmentation. However, out of the steady-state conditions, this solution is not satisfactory for some values of the collisional parameters. In fact, for some values for the exponent of the mass distribution power law of an asteroidal group and its relation to the exponent of the function which describes "how rocks break" the author arrives at singular points for the equation which describes the collisional evolution. These singularities appear since some approximations are usually made in the laborious evaluation of many integrals that appear in the analytical calculations. They concern the cutoff for the smallest and the largest bodies. These singularities set some restrictions to the study of the analytical solution for the collisional equation. To overcome these singularities the author performed an algebraic computation considering the smallest and the largest bodies and he obtained the analytical expressions for the integrals that describe the collisional evolution without restriction on the parameters. However, the new distribution is more sensitive to the values of the collisional parameters. In particular the steady-state solution for the differential mass distribution has exponents slightly different from 11/6 for the usual parameters in the asteroid belt. The sensitivity of this distribution with respect to the parameters is analyzed for the usual values in the asteroidal groups. With an expression for the mass distribution without singularities, one can evaluate also its time evolution. The author arrives at an analytical expression given by a power series of terms constituted by a small parameter multiplied by the mass to an exponent, which depends on the initial power law distribution. This expression is a formal solution for the equation which describes the collisional evolution.
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Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty
2006-01-01
Diameter distributions in a forest stand have been successfully characterized by use of the Weibull function. Of special interest are cases where parameters of a Weibull distribution that models a future stand are predicted, either directly or indirectly, from current stand density and dominant height. This study evaluated four methods of predicting the Weibull...
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Papanastasiou, Giorgos; Williams, Michelle C; Kershaw, Lucy E; Dweck, Marc R; Alam, Shirjel; Mirsadraee, Saeed; Connell, Martin; Gray, Calum; MacGillivray, Tom; Newby, David E; Semple, Scott Ik
2015-02-17
Mathematical modeling of cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion data allows absolute quantification of myocardial blood flow. Saturation of left ventricle signal during standard contrast administration can compromise the input function used when applying these models. This saturation effect is evident during application of standard Fermi models in single bolus perfusion data. Dual bolus injection protocols have been suggested to eliminate saturation but are much less practical in the clinical setting. The distributed parameter model can also be used for absolute quantification but has not been applied in patients with coronary artery disease. We assessed whether distributed parameter modeling might be less dependent on arterial input function saturation than Fermi modeling in healthy volunteers. We validated the accuracy of each model in detecting reduced myocardial blood flow in stenotic vessels versus gold-standard invasive methods. Eight healthy subjects were scanned using a dual bolus cardiac perfusion protocol at 3T. We performed both single and dual bolus analysis of these data using the distributed parameter and Fermi models. For the dual bolus analysis, a scaled pre-bolus arterial input function was used. In single bolus analysis, the arterial input function was extracted from the main bolus. We also performed analysis using both models of single bolus data obtained from five patients with coronary artery disease and findings were compared against independent invasive coronary angiography and fractional flow reserve. Statistical significance was defined as two-sided P value < 0.05. Fermi models overestimated myocardial blood flow in healthy volunteers due to arterial input function saturation in single bolus analysis compared to dual bolus analysis (P < 0.05). No difference was observed in these volunteers when applying distributed parameter-myocardial blood flow between single and dual bolus analysis. In patients, distributed parameter modeling was able to detect reduced myocardial blood flow at stress (<2.5 mL/min/mL of tissue) in all 12 stenotic vessels compared to only 9 for Fermi modeling. Comparison of single bolus versus dual bolus values suggests that distributed parameter modeling is less dependent on arterial input function saturation than Fermi modeling. Distributed parameter modeling showed excellent accuracy in detecting reduced myocardial blood flow in all stenotic vessels.
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Yoo, M A; Seo, Y K; Shin, M K; Koh, J S
2016-02-01
Skin aging has been focused the wrinkle on the face than on the body, so most studies have been studied the change in Crow's feet for ages. Only little is known about the age-dependent changes of wrinkles on body sites. The aim of this study was to establish new grading criteria for severity of wrinkles on knees and to investigate the relationship of wrinkle severity with age- and site-dependent. The skin on the knee of 38 healthy Korean female volunteers, divided into two groups young and old, were photographed. Standard photograph for body wrinkle was established (grade 0~7), and then visual assessment, skin wrinkle, and skin elasticity were evaluated on Crow's feet and the knee. We examined for any significant differences and the correlation of skin aging parameters with age and two different sites. Skin wrinkle severity with standard photograph and wrinkle parameters (Ra, Rmax, Rz, and Rv) had a significantly positive correlation with age-dependent on the knee (P < 0.001). Also, skin elastic parameters (R2, R5, R6, R7, and Q1) showed a significant negative correlation with age on the knee (P < 0.001). Skin wrinkle severity with standard photograph was highly correlated with all skin wrinkle parameters and skin elastic parameters (R2, R5, R7, and Q1) on the knee (P < 0.001). In addition, all the skin aging parameters on the knee were significantly correlated with Crow's feet (P < 0.01). Skin aging on the knee had the same tendency as the Crow's feet. This study has shown the new grading criteria of wrinkles on the knee. Skin wrinkle and elasticity on the knee are age-dependent related and aging on the knee is highly related to Crow's feet. Those parameters are using a quantitative method to evaluate body aging. Also, the knee is considered that it could be a suitable site to evaluate body aging. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Optical and Near-Infrared Structural Properties of Cluster Galaxies at z ~ 0.3
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
La Barbera, F.; Busarello, G.; Merluzzi, P.; Massarotti, M.; Capaccioli, M.
2002-06-01
Structural parameters (half-light radius re, mean effective surface brightness <μ>e, and Sersic index n, parameterizing the light profile shape) are derived for a sample of galaxies in the rich cluster AC 118 at z=0.31, so far the largest (N=93) sample of galaxies at intermediate redshift with structural parameters measured in the near-infrared. The parameters are obtained in two optical wavebands (V and R) and in the K band, corresponding approximately to the B, V, and H rest frame. The distributions of re at z=0.31 match those for the Coma Cluster (i.e., for the local universe) both in the optical and in the NIR. The K-band distribution is of particular interest, since the NIR light mimics the mass distribution of galaxies. The similarity of the distributions for the two clusters (AC 118 and Coma) proves that the galaxies at the bright end of the luminosity function did not significantly change their sizes since z~0.3 to the present epoch. The ratio of the optical to the NIR half-light radius shows a marked trend with the shape of the light profile (Sersic index n). In galaxies with n>~4 (typical bright ellipticals) re,NIR~0.6re,opt, while the average ratio is 0.8 for galaxies with lower n (typical disk systems). Moreover, the NIR Sersic index is systematically larger than in the optical for n<~4. These results, translated into optical and optical-NIR color gradients, imply that the optical color gradients at z~0.3 are similar to those of nearby galaxies. The optical-NIR color gradients are in the average larger, ranging from -0.73 mag dex-1 for n<~4 to -0.35 mag dex-1 for n>~4. Models with ``pure age'' or ``pure metallicity'' gradients are unable to reconcile our color gradients estimates with observations at z~0, but we argue that the combined effects of age and metallicity might explain consistently the observed data: passive evolution (plus the possible effect of dust absorption) may account for the differences between the optical and NIR structural properties. The lack of any major change in re,NIR since z~0.3 suggests that merging involving bright galaxies did not play a significant role in the last ~4.4 Gyr (ΩM=0.3, ΩΛ=0, H0=50 km s-1 Mpc-1). The results of the present paper will be applied to the study of the scaling laws in subsequent works. Based on observations collected at European Southern Observatory (ESO 62.O-0369, 63.O-0257, 64.O-0236) and on data from the STScI Science Archive.
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The concept of temperature in space plasmas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Livadiotis, G.
2017-12-01
Independently of the initial distribution function, once the system is thermalized, its particles are stabilized into a specific distribution function parametrized by a temperature. Classical particle systems in thermal equilibrium have their phase-space distribution stabilized into a Maxwell-Boltzmann function. In contrast, space plasmas are particle systems frequently described by stationary states out of thermal equilibrium, namely, their distribution is stabilized into a function that is typically described by kappa distributions. The temperature is well-defined for systems at thermal equilibrium or stationary states described by kappa distributions. This is based on the equivalence of the two fundamental definitions of temperature, that is (i) the kinetic definition of Maxwell (1866) and (ii) the thermodynamic definition of Clausius (1862). This equivalence holds either for Maxwellians or kappa distributions, leading also to the equipartition theorem. The temperature and kappa index (together with density) are globally independent parameters characterizing the kappa distribution. While there is no equation of state or any universal relation connecting these parameters, various local relations may exist along the streamlines of space plasmas. Observations revealed several types of such local relations among plasma thermal parameters.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pasari, S.; Kundu, D.; Dikshit, O.
2012-12-01
Earthquake recurrence interval is one of the important ingredients towards probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for any location. Exponential, gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions are quite established probability models in this recurrence interval estimation. However, they have certain shortcomings too. Thus, it is imperative to search for some alternative sophisticated distributions. In this paper, we introduce a three-parameter (location, scale and shape) exponentiated exponential distribution and investigate the scope of this distribution as an alternative of the afore-mentioned distributions in earthquake recurrence studies. This distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution. Despite of its complicated form, it is widely accepted in medical and biological applications. Furthermore, it shares many physical properties with gamma and Weibull family. Unlike gamma distribution, the hazard function of generalized exponential distribution can be easily computed even if the shape parameter is not an integer. To contemplate the plausibility of this model, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0) spanning for the period 1846 to 1995 from North-East Himalayan region (20-32 deg N and 87-100 deg E) has been used. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of moment estimator (MOME). No geological or geophysical evidences have been considered in this calculation. The estimated conditional probability reaches quite high after about a decade for an elapsed time of 17 years (i.e. 2012). Moreover, this study shows that the generalized exponential distribution fits the above data events more closely compared to the conventional models and hence it is tentatively concluded that generalized exponential distribution can be effectively considered in earthquake recurrence studies.
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Diffraction of cosine-Gaussian-correlated Schell-model beams.
Pan, Liuzhan; Ding, Chaoliang; Wang, Haixia
2014-05-19
The expression of spectral density of cosine-Gaussian-correlated Schell-model (CGSM) beams diffracted by an aperture is derived, and used to study the changes in the spectral density distribution of CGSM beams upon propagation, where the effect of aperture diffraction is emphasized. It is shown that, comparing with that of GSM beams, the spectral density distribution of CGSM beams diffracted by an aperture has dip and shows dark hollow intensity distribution when the order-parameter n is big enough. The central intensity increases with increasing truncation parameter of aperture. The comparative study of spectral density distributions of CGSM beams with aperture and that of without aperture is performed. Furthermore, the effect of order-parameter n and spatial coherence of CGSM beams on the spectral density distribution is discussed in detail. The results obtained may be useful in optical particulate manipulation.
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The Lives of Stars: Insights from the TGAS–RAVE–LAMOST Data Set
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vickers, John J.; Smith, Martin C.
2018-06-01
In this paper, we investigate how the chemical and kinematic properties of stars vary as a function of age. Using data from a variety of photometric, astrometric, and spectroscopic surveys, we calculate the ages, phase space information, and orbits for ∼125,000 stars covering a wide range of stellar parameters. We find indications that the inner regions of the disk reached high levels of enrichment early, while the outer regions were more substantially enriched in intermediate and recent epochs. We consider these enrichment histories through comparison of the ages of stars, their metallicities, and kinematic properties, such as their angular momentum in the solar neighborhood (which is a proxy for orbital radius). We calculate rates at which the velocity dispersions evolve, investigate the Oort constants for populations of different ages (finding a slightly negative ∂V C/∂R and ∂V R /∂R for all ages, which is most negative for the oldest stars), as well as examine the behavior of the deviation angle of the velocity vertex as a function of age (which we find to fall from ∼15° for the 2 Gyr old population to ∼6° at around 6.5 Gyr of age, after which it remains unchanged). We find evidence for stellar churning, and find that the churned stars have a slightly younger age distribution than the rest of the data.
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Earthquake number forecasts testing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kagan, Yan Y.
2017-10-01
We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness and kurtosis both tend to zero for large earthquake rates: for the Gaussian law, these values are identically zero. A calculation of the NBD skewness and kurtosis levels based on the values of the first two statistical moments of the distribution, shows rapid increase of these upper moments levels. However, the observed catalogue values of skewness and kurtosis are rising even faster. This means that for small time intervals, the earthquake number distribution is even more heavy-tailed than the NBD predicts. Therefore for small time intervals, we propose using empirical number distributions appropriately smoothed for testing forecasted earthquake numbers.
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Cohen-Wolkowiez, Michael; Sampson, Mario; Bloom, Barry T; Arrieta, Antonio; Wynn, James L; Martz, Karen; Harper, Barrie; Kearns, Gregory L; Capparelli, Edmund V; Siegel, David; Benjamin, Daniel K; Smith, P Brian
2013-09-01
Limited pharmacokinetic (PK) data of metronidazole in premature infants have led to various dosing recommendations. Surrogate efficacy targets for metronidazole are ill-defined and therefore aimed to exceed minimum inhibitory concentration of organisms responsible for intra-abdominal infections. We evaluated the PK of metronidazole using plasma and dried blood spot samples from infants ≤32 weeks gestational age in an open-label, PK, multicenter (N = 3) study using population PK modeling (NONMEM). Monte Carlo simulations (N = 1000 virtual subjects) were used to evaluate the surrogate efficacy target. Metabolic ratios of parent and metabolite were calculated. Twenty-four premature infants (111 plasma and 51 dried blood spot samples) were enrolled: median (range) gestational age at birth 25 (23-31) weeks, postnatal age 27 (1-82) days, postmenstrual age 31 (24-39) weeks and weight 740 (431-1466) g. Population clearance (L/h/kg) was 0.038 × (postmenstrual age/30) and volume of distribution (L/kg) of 0.93. PK parameter estimates and precision were similar between plasma and dried blood spot samples. Metabolic ratios correlated with clearance. Simulations suggested the majority of infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (>80%) would meet the surrogate efficacy target using postmenstrual age-based dosing.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, S.; McFarquhar, G. M.; Leroy, D.; Korolev, A.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Wu, W.; Strapp, J. W.
2016-12-01
Aviation records since the 1990s indicate that aircraft engines are facing a threat of occasional power loss due to ice ingestion over tropical oceanic convective clouds. The typical absence of radar echoes greater than 30 dBZ during such incidents suggests the existence of large amounts of small ice particles. The industrial aviation safety concerns inspired the High Altitude Ice Crystals / High Ice Water Content (HAIC/HIWC) campaign, whose Phase I was conducted between January and March 2014. A 2-D Stereo (2DS) probe, Precipitation Imaging Probe (PIP) and Isokinetic Evaporator Probe were installed on the French Falcon 20 making in-situ observations off the coast of Darwin, Australia. Composite particle size distributions (PSDs) using 2DS and PIP data were derived for each 5 second period in cloud. Using an automated technique to identify multiple modes in PSDs and an Incomplete Gamma Fit technique, the intercept (N0), slope (λ) and shape parameter (μ) of each mode of a gamma distribution were determined. The variation of PSDs and fit parameters for Ice Water Contents (IWCs) > 1.5 g m-3 with cloud and environmental parameters and their differences from PSDs measured outside of high IWC conditions are summarized here. Two types of HIWC conditions were observed, according to whether the median mass diameters (MMD) were positively or negatively correlated with IWC. The principal findings about high IWC regions are as follows: 1) larger μ and N0 are found in high IWC regions while λ tends to remain unchanged; 2) PSDs are more likely to be bimodal at lower temperatures. 3) Positive MMD-IWC correlations are associated with larger μ and smaller N0; 4) Bimodal distributions are more frequent for positive MMD-IWC correlations; and 5) Positive MMD-IWC correlations are usually associated with longer-aged clouds, but there are exceptions, showing other factors affect the occurrence of frequent small particles in high IWC regions. Implications for modeling of high IWC events are discussed.
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Comparison of sampling techniques for Bayesian parameter estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allison, Rupert; Dunkley, Joanna
2014-02-01
The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the posterior probability distribution we have to decide how to explore parameter space. Here we compare three prescriptions for how parameter space is navigated, discussing their relative merits. We consider Metropolis-Hasting sampling, nested sampling and affine-invariant ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We focus on their performance on toy-model Gaussian likelihoods and on a real-world cosmological data set. We outline the sampling algorithms themselves and elaborate on performance diagnostics such as convergence time, scope for parallelization, dimensional scaling, requisite tunings and suitability for non-Gaussian distributions. We find that nested sampling delivers high-fidelity estimates for posterior statistics at low computational cost, and should be adopted in favour of Metropolis-Hastings in many cases. Affine-invariant MCMC is competitive when computing clusters can be utilized for massive parallelization. Affine-invariant MCMC and existing extensions to nested sampling naturally probe multimodal and curving distributions.
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Selecting Summary Statistics in Approximate Bayesian Computation for Calibrating Stochastic Models
Burr, Tom
2013-01-01
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the “go-to” option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example. PMID:24288668
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Selecting summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation for calibrating stochastic models.
Burr, Tom; Skurikhin, Alexei
2013-01-01
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the "go-to" option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Yonggen; Schaap, Marcel G.
2017-04-01
Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been widely used to predict soil hydraulic parameters in favor of expensive laboratory or field measurements. Rosetta (Schaap et al., 2001, denoted as Rosetta1) is one of many PTFs and is based on artificial neural network (ANN) analysis coupled with the bootstrap re-sampling method which allows the estimation of van Genuchten water retention parameters (van Genuchten, 1980, abbreviated here as VG), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), and their uncertainties. In this study, we present an improved set of hierarchical pedotransfer functions (Rosetta3) that unify the water retention and Ks submodels into one. Parameter uncertainty of the fit of the VG curve to the original retention data is used in the ANN calibration procedure to reduce bias of parameters predicted by the new PTF. One thousand bootstrap replicas were used to calibrate the new models compared to 60 or 100 in Rosetta1, thus allowing the uni-variate and bi-variate probability distributions of predicted parameters to be quantified in greater detail. We determined the optimal weights for VG parameters and Ks, the optimal number of hidden nodes in ANN, and the number of bootstrap replicas required for statistically stable estimates. Results show that matric potential-dependent bias was reduced significantly while root mean square error (RMSE) for water content were reduced modestly; RMSE for Ks was increased by 0.9% (H3w) to 3.3% (H5w) in the new models on log scale of Ks compared with the Rosetta1 model. It was found that estimated distributions of parameters were mildly non-Gaussian and could instead be described rather well with heavy-tailed α-stable distributions. On the other hand, arithmetic means had only a small estimation bias for most textures when compared with the mean-like "shift" parameter of the α-stable distributions. Arithmetic means and (co-)variances are therefore still recommended as summary statistics of the estimated distributions. However, it may be necessary to parameterize the distributions in different ways if the new estimates are used in stochastic analyses of vadose zone flow and transport. Rosetta1 and Posetta3 were implemented in the python programming language, and the source code as well as additional documentation is available at: http://www.cals.arizona.edu/research/rosettav3.html.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ryzhkov, V.; Morozov, I.
2018-01-01
The paper presents the calculating results of the combustion products parameters in the tract of the low thrust rocket engine with thrust P ∼ 100 N. The article contains the following data: streamlines, distribution of total temperature parameter in the longitudinal section of the engine chamber, static temperature distribution in the cross section of the engine chamber, velocity distribution of the combustion products in the outlet section of the engine nozzle, static temperature near the inner wall of the engine. The presented parameters allow to estimate the efficiency of the mixture formation processes, flow of combustion products in the engine chamber and to estimate the thermal state of the structure.
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Nonequilibrium approach regarding metals from a linearised kappa distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Domenech-Garret, J. L.
2017-10-01
The widely used kappa distribution functions develop high-energy tails through an adjustable kappa parameter. The aim of this work is to show that such a parameter can itself be regarded as a function, which entangles information about the sources of disequilibrium. We first derive and analyse an expanded Fermi-Dirac kappa distribution. Later, we use this expanded form to obtain an explicit analytical expression for the kappa parameter of a heated metal on which an external electric field is applied. We show that such a kappa index causes departures from equilibrium depending on the physical magnitudes. Finally, we study the role of temperature and electric field on such a parameter, which characterises the electron population of a metal out of equilibrium.
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Study of the zinc-silver oxide battery system
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nanis, L.
1973-01-01
Theoretical and experimental models for the evaluation of current distribution in flooded, porous electrodes are discussed. An approximation for the local current distribution function was derived for conditions of a linear overpotential, a uniform concentration, and a very conductive matrix. By considering the porous electrode to be an analog of chemical catalyst structures, a dimensionless performance parameter was derived from the approximated current distribution function. In this manner the electrode behavior was characterized in terms of an electrochemical Thiele parameter and an effectiveness factor. It was shown that the electrochemical engineering approach makes possible the organizations of theoretical descriptions and of practical experience in the form of dimensionless parameters, such as the electrochemical Thiele parameters, and hence provides useful information for the design of new electrochemical systems.
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Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W.J.; Pintar, Frank A.; Szabo, Aniko
2015-01-01
Objective Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. Methods The study re-examined lower leg PMHS data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and non-injury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the co-variable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. Results The mean age, stature and weight: 58.2 ± 15.1 years, 1.74 ± 0.08 m and 74.9 ± 13.8 kg. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other two distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-old at five, 25 and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45 and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. Conclusions This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines. PMID:25307381
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Incorporating Nonstationarity into IDF Curves across CONUS from Station Records and Implications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.
2017-12-01
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are widely used for engineering design of storm-affected structures. Current practice is that IDF-curves are based on observed precipitation extremes fit to a stationary probability distribution (e.g., the extreme value family). However, there is increasing evidence of nonstationarity in station records. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend test to over 1000 stations across the CONUS at a 0.05 significance level, and find that about 30% of stations test have significant nonstationarity for at least one duration (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, and 48-hours). We fit the stations to a GEV distribution with time-varying location and scale parameters using a Bayesian- methodology and compare the fit of stationary versus nonstationary GEV distributions to observed precipitation extremes. Within our fitted nonstationary GEV distributions, we compare distributions with a time-varying location parameter versus distributions with both time-varying location and scale parameters. For distributions with two time-varying parameters, we pay particular attention to instances where location and scale trends have opposing directions. Finally, we use the mathematical framework based on work of Koutsoyiannis to generate IDF curves based on the fitted GEV distributions and discuss the implications that using time-varying parameters may have on simple scaling relationships. We apply the above methods to evaluate how frequency statistics based on a stationary assumption compare to those that incorporate nonstationarity for both short and long term projects. Overall, we find that neglecting nonstationarity can lead to under- or over-estimates (depending on the trend for the given duration and region) of important statistics such as the design storm.
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Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards
Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.
2014-01-01
The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.
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Evolutionary Calculations of Phase Separation in Crystallizing White Dwarf Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Montgomery, M. H.; Klumpe, E. W.; Winget, D. E.; Wood, M. A.
1999-11-01
We present an exploration of the significance of carbon/oxygen phase separation in white dwarf stars in the context of self-consistent evolutionary calculations. Because phase separation can potentially increase the calculated ages of the oldest white dwarfs, it can affect the age of the Galactic disk as derived from the downturn in the white dwarf luminosity function. We find that the largest possible increase in ages due to phase separation is ~1.5 Gyr, with a most likely value of approximately 0.6 Gyr, depending on the parameters of our white dwarf models. The most important factors influencing the size of this delay are the total stellar mass, the initial composition profile, and the phase diagram assumed for crystallization. We find a maximum age delay in models with masses of ~0.6 Msolar, which is near the peak in the observed white dwarf mass distribution. In addition, we note that the prescription that we have adopted for the mixing during crystallization provides an upper bound for the efficiency of this process, and hence a maximum for the age delays. More realistic treatments of the mixing process may reduce the size of this effect. We find that varying the opacities (via the metallicity) has little effect on the calculated age delays. In the context of Galactic evolution, age estimates for the oldest Galactic globular clusters range from 11.5 to 16 Gyr and depend on a variety of parameters. In addition, a 4-6 Gyr delay is expected between the formation of the globular clusters and the formation of the Galactic thin disk, while the observed white dwarf luminosity function gives an age estimate for the thin disk of 9.5+1.1-0.8 Gyr, without including the effect of phase separation. Using the above numbers, we see that phase separation could add between 0 and 3 Gyr to the white dwarf ages and still be consistent with the overall picture of Galaxy formation. Our calculated maximum value of <~1.5 Gyr fits within these bounds, as does our best-guess value of ~0.6 Gyr.
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Electron acoustic nonlinear structures in planetary magnetospheres
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shah, K. H.; Qureshi, M. N. S.; Masood, W.; Shah, H. A.
2018-04-01
In this paper, we have studied linear and nonlinear propagation of electron acoustic waves (EAWs) comprising cold and hot populations in which the ions form the neutralizing background. The hot electrons have been assumed to follow the generalized ( r , q ) distribution which has the advantage that it mimics most of the distribution functions observed in space plasmas. Interestingly, it has been found that unlike Maxwellian and kappa distributions, the electron acoustic waves admit not only rarefactive structures but also allow the formation of compressive solitary structures for generalized ( r , q ) distribution. It has been found that the flatness parameter r , tail parameter q , and the nonlinear propagation velocity u affect the propagation characteristics of nonlinear EAWs. Using the plasmas parameters, typically found in Saturn's magnetosphere and the Earth's auroral region, where two populations of electrons and electron acoustic solitary waves (EASWs) have been observed, we have given an estimate of the scale lengths over which these nonlinear waves are expected to form and how the size of these structures would vary with the change in the shape of the distribution function and with the change of the plasma parameters.
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Quinn, Terrance; Sinkala, Zachariah
2014-01-01
We develop a general method for computing extreme value distribution (Gumbel, 1958) parameters for gapped alignments. Our approach uses mixture distribution theory to obtain associated BLOSUM matrices for gapped alignments, which in turn are used for determining significance of gapped alignment scores for pairs of biological sequences. We compare our results with parameters already obtained in the literature.
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Control of Distributed Parameter Systems
1990-08-01
vari- ant of the general Lotka - Volterra model for interspecific competition. The variant described the emergence of one subpopulation from another as a...distribut ion unlimited. I&. ARSTRACT (MAUMUnw2O1 A unified arioroximation framework for Parameter estimation In general linear POE models has been completed...unified approximation framework for parameter estimation in general linear PDE models. This framework has provided the theoretical basis for a number of