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Sample records for age estimates based

  1. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population. PMID:27555738

  2. Human Age Estimation Based on Locality and Ordinal Information.

    PubMed

    Li, Changsheng; Liu, Qingshan; Dong, Weishan; Zhu, Xiaobin; Liu, Jing; Lu, Hanqing

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel feature selection-based method for facial age estimation. The face aging is a typical temporal process, and facial images should have certain ordinal patterns in the aging feature space. From the geometrical perspective, a facial image can be usually seen as sampled from a low-dimensional manifold embedded in the original high-dimensional feature space. Thus, we first measure the energy of each feature in preserving the underlying local structure information and the ordinal information of the facial images, respectively, and then we intend to learn a low-dimensional aging representation that can maximally preserve both kinds of information. To further improve the performance, we try to eliminate the redundant local information and ordinal information as much as possible by minimizing nonlinear correlation and rank correlation among features. Finally, we formulate all these issues into a unified optimization problem, which is similar to linear discriminant analysis in format. Since it is expensive to collect the labeled facial aging images in practice, we extend the proposed supervised method to a semi-supervised learning mode including the semi-supervised feature selection method and the semi-supervised age prediction algorithm. Extensive experiments are conducted on the FACES dataset, the Images of Groups dataset, and the FG-NET aging dataset to show the power of the proposed algorithms, compared to the state-of-the-arts. PMID:26470062

  3. Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.

    2012-12-01

    This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;

  4. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  5. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  6. Dental age estimation based on third molar eruption in First Nation people of Canada.

    PubMed

    Schmeling, A; Olze, A; Pynn, B R; Kraul, V; Schulz, R; Heinecke, A; Pfeiffer, H

    2010-12-01

    Forensic age estimation of living subjects has become an increasing focus of interest in modern society. One main criterion for dental age estimation in the relevant age group is the evaluation of third molar eruption. The importance of ethnic variation in dental development requires population specific data for dental age evaluation. In the present study, we determined the stages of third molar eruption in 347 female and 258 male First Nations people of Canada aged 11 to 29 years based on radiological evidence from 605 conventional orthopantomograms. The results presented here provide data on the age of alveolar, gingival, and complete eruption of the third molars in the occlusal plane that can be used for forensic estimation of the minimum and most probable ages of investigated individuals.

  7. Paleoglaciation of the Tibetan Plateau based on exposure ages and ELA depression estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyman, Jakob

    2014-05-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds a major part of all glaciers outside the polar regions and an ample record of past glaciations. The glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau has attracted significant interest, with a large body of research investigating the extent, timing, and climatic implications of past glaciations. Here I present an extensive compilation of exposure ages and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates from glacial deposits across the Tibetan Plateau to address the timing and degree of past glaciations. I compiled Be-10 exposure age data for a total of 1877 samples and recalculated exposure ages using an updated (lower) global Be-10 production rate. All samples were organized in groups of individual glacial deposits where each deposit represents one glacial event enabling evaluation of the exposure age clustering. For each glacial deposit I estimated the ELA depression based on a simple toe to headwall ratio approach using Google Earth. To discriminate good (well-clustered) from poor (scattered) exposure age groups the glacial deposits were divided into three groups based on exposure age clustering. A major part of the glacial deposits have scattered exposure ages affected by prior or incomplete exposure, complicating exposure age interpretations. The well-clustered exposure age groups are primarily from mountain ranges along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau with a main peak in age between 10 and 30 ka, indicating glacial advances during the global last glacial maximum (LGM). A large number of exposure ages older than 30 ka indicates maximum glaciation predating the LGM, but the exposure age scatter generally prohibits accurate definition of the glacial chronology. The ELA depression estimates scatter significantly, but a major part is remarkably low. Average ELA depressions of 333 ± 191 m for the LGM and 494 ± 280 m for the pre-LGM exposure indicate restricted glacier expansion and limited glacial cooling.

  8. A method for estimating gestational age of fetal remains based on long bone lengths.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Cristiana; Curate, Francisco; Cunha, Eugénia

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of gestational age (GA) in fetal human remains is important in forensic settings, particularly to assess fetal viability, in addition to often being the only biological profile parameter that can be assessed with some accuracy for non-adults. The length of long bone diaphysis is one of the most frequently used methods for fetal age estimation. The main objective of this study was to present a simple and objective method for estimating GA based on the measurements of the diaphysis of the femur, tibia, fibula, humerus, ulna, and radius. Conventional least squares regression equations (classical and inverse calibration approaches) and quick reference tables were generated. A supplementary objective was to compare the performance of the new formulae against previously published models. The sample comprised 257 fetuses (136 females and 121 males) with known GA (between 12 and 40 weeks) and was selected based on clinical and pathological information. All measurements were performed on radiographic images acquired in anonymous clinical autopsy records from spontaneous and therapeutic abortions in two Portuguese hospitals. The proposed technique is straightforward and reproducible. The models for the GA estimation are exceedingly accurate and unbiased. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show that both perform exceptionally well, with high accuracy and low bias. Also, the newly developed equations generally outperform earlier methods of GA estimation in forensic contexts. Quick reference tables for each long bone are now available. The obtained models for the estimation of gestational age are of great applicability in forensic contexts. PMID:27251047

  9. Estimating age from the pubic symphysis: A new component-based system.

    PubMed

    Dudzik, Beatrix; Langley, Natalie R

    2015-12-01

    The os pubis is one of the most widely used areas of the skeleton for age estimation. Current pubic symphyseal aging methods for adults combine the morphology associated with the developmental changes that occur into the mid-30s with the degenerative changes that span the latter portion of the age spectrum. The most popular methods are phase-based; however, the definitions currently used to estimate age intervals may not be adequately defined and/or accurately understood by burgeoning researchers and seasoned practitioners alike. This study identifies patterns of growth and maturation in the pubic symphysis to derive more precise age estimates for individuals under 40 years of age. Emphasis is placed on young adults to provide more informative descriptions of epiphyseal changes associated with the final phases of skeletal maturation before degeneration commences. This study investigated macroscopic changes in forensically relevant modern U.S. samples of known age, sex, and ancestry from the Maricopa County Forensic Science Center in Phoenix, Arizona as well as donated individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic and Donated Collections at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (n=237). Age-related traits at locations with ontogenetic and biomechanical relevance were broken into components and scored. The components included the pubic tubercle, the superior apex of the face, the ventral and dorsal demifaces, and the ventral and dorsal symphyseal margins. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate the transition ages between the morphological states of each component. The categorical scores and transition analysis ages were subjected to multinomial logistic regression and decision tree analysis to derive accurate age interval estimates. Results of these analyses were used to construct a decision tree-style flow chart for practitioner use. High inter-rater agreement of the individual component traits (linear weighted kappa values ≥0.665 for all traits in the

  10. Personalizing Age of Cancer Screening Cessation Based on Comorbidity: Model estimates of harms and benefits

    PubMed Central

    Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Gulati, Roman; Mariotto, Angela B; Schechter, Clyde B; de Carvalho, Tiago M; Knudsen, Amy B; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Heijnsdijk, Eveline AM; Pabiniak, Chester; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Rutter, Carolyn M; Kuntz, Karen M; Feuer, Eric J; Etzioni, Ruth; de Koning, Harry J; Zauber, Ann G; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S

    2014-01-01

    Background Harms and benefits of cancer screening depend on age and comorbidity, yet reliable estimates are lacking. Objective To estimate the harms and benefits of cancer screening by age and comorbidity to inform decisions about screening cessation. Design Collaborative modeling with seven well-established cancer simulation models and common data on average and comorbidity level-specific life expectancy from SEER-Medicare. Setting US population. Patients US cohorts aged 66–90 years in 2010 with average health or one of four comorbidity levels (linked to specific conditions): none, mild, moderate, or severe. Intervention Mammography, prostate-specific antigen testing, or fecal immunochemical testing. Measurements Lifetime cancer deaths prevented and life-years gained (benefits); false-positive tests and overdiagnosed cancers (harms). For each comorbidity level: the age at which harms and benefits of screening were similar to that for individuals with average health undergoing screening at age 74. Results Screening 1000 women with average life expectancy at age 74 for breast cancer resulted in 79–96 (range across models) false-positives, 0.5–0.8 overdiagnosed cancers, and 0.7–0.9 breast cancer deaths prevented. While absolute numbers of harms and benefits differed across cancer sites, the ages at which to cease screening were highly consistent across models and cancer sites when based on harm-benefit ratios comparable to screening average-health individuals at age 74. For individuals with no, mild, moderate, and severe comorbidities, screening until ages of 76, 74, 72, and 66, respectively, resulted in similar harms and benefits as for average-health individuals. Limitations Comorbidity only influenced life expectancy. Conclusion Comorbidity is an important determinant of harms and benefits of screening. Estimates of screening benefits and harms by comorbidity can inform discussions between providers and their older patients about personalizing decisions

  11. Early-age concrete strength estimation based on piezoelectric sensor using artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Junkyeong; Kim, Ju-Won; Park, Seunghee

    2014-04-01

    Recently, novel methods to estimate the strength of concrete have been reported based on numerous NDT methods. Especially, electro-mechanical impedance technique using piezoelectric sensors are studied to estimate the strength of concrete. However, the previous research works could not provide the general information about the early-age strength important to manage the quality of concrete and/or the construction process. In order to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, the electro-mechanical impedance method and the artificial neural network(ANN) is utilized in this study. The electro-mechanical impedance varies with the mechanical properties of host structures. Because the strength development is most influential factor among the change of mechanical properties at early-age of curing, it is possible to estimate the strength of concrete by analyzing the change of E/M impedance. The strength of concrete is a complex function of several factors like mix proportion, temperature, elasticity, etc. Because of this, it is hard to mathematically derive equations about strength of concrete. The ANN can provide the solution about early-age strength of concrete without mathematical equations. To verify the proposed approach, a series of experimental studies are conducted. The impedance signals are measured using embedded piezoelectric sensors during curing process and the resonant frequency of impedance is extracted as a strength feature. The strength of concrete is calculated by regression of strength development curve obtained by destructive test. Then ANN model is established by trained using experimental results. Finally the ANN model is verified using impedance data of other sensors.

  12. Estimating the value of volunteer-assisted community-based aging services: a case example.

    PubMed

    Scharlach, Andrew E

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of a social return on investment (SROI) approach in estimating the financial and social value created by volunteer-assisted community-based aging services. An expanded value added statement (EVAS) analysis found that the total value of outputs produced by the Concierge Club of San Diego substantially exceeded the cost of the program, after considering likely secondary and tertiary benefits for a range of affected stakeholders-including elderly service recipients, family members, volunteers, and societal institutions. Additional research is needed regarding the direct and indirect costs and benefits of volunteer support services for vulnerable older adults and their families.

  13. Estimating the value of volunteer-assisted community-based aging services: a case example.

    PubMed

    Scharlach, Andrew E

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of a social return on investment (SROI) approach in estimating the financial and social value created by volunteer-assisted community-based aging services. An expanded value added statement (EVAS) analysis found that the total value of outputs produced by the Concierge Club of San Diego substantially exceeded the cost of the program, after considering likely secondary and tertiary benefits for a range of affected stakeholders-including elderly service recipients, family members, volunteers, and societal institutions. Additional research is needed regarding the direct and indirect costs and benefits of volunteer support services for vulnerable older adults and their families. PMID:25551169

  14. Age estimation in forensic anthropology: quantification of observer error in phase versus component-based methods.

    PubMed

    Shirley, Natalie R; Ramirez Montes, Paula Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess observer error in phase versus component-based scoring systems used to develop age estimation methods in forensic anthropology. A method preferred by forensic anthropologists in the AAFS was selected for this evaluation (the Suchey-Brooks method for the pubic symphysis). The Suchey-Brooks descriptions were used to develop a corresponding component-based scoring system for comparison. Several commonly used reliability statistics (kappa, weighted kappa, and the intraclass correlation coefficient) were calculated to assess observer agreement between two observers and to evaluate the efficacy of each of these statistics for this study. The linear weighted kappa was determined to be the most suitable measure of observer agreement. The results show that a component-based system offers the possibility for more objective scoring than a phase system as long as the coding possibilities for each trait do not exceed three states of expression, each with as little overlap as possible.

  15. Age estimation for shovelnose sturgeon: A cautionary note based on annulus formation in pectoral fin rays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whiteman, K.W.; Travnichek, V.H.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.; Papoulias, D.; Tillett, D.

    2004-01-01

    Numerous studies have examined the age and growth of shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, but only one study attempted to validate age estimation techniques. Therefore, our objective was to use marginal increment analysis to validate annulus formation in pectoral fin rays of shovelnose sturgeon collected from the Missouri River. We also compared the precision of age estimates between two different readers. Marginal increment distance indicated that for most of the populations an opaque band was laid down in pectoral fin rays during the summer. However, opaque bands were formed throughout the year in some individuals, which could be problematic when using fin rays for age estimation. The agreement of age estimates by two readers for shovelnose sturgeon was only 18%, and differences in ages between the two readers increased for older fish. The presence of split annuli, false annuli, spawning bands, imbedded rays, and deteriorating sections made individual growth rings difficult to separate. Our findings verified that opaque bands are formed annually during the summer in the pectoral fin rays of most shovelnose sturgeon, but some individuals form opaque bands during other times. Pectoral fin rays will probably continue to be the most practical method of age estimation in shovelnose sturgeon, but ages estimated by this method should be used with caution.

  16. Radiological age estimation: based on third molar mineralization and eruption in Turkish children and young adults.

    PubMed

    Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi

    2012-11-01

    Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation.

  17. [Age estimation based on sternal rib ends changes in Bosnian male population].

    PubMed

    Sarajlić, Nermin

    2006-01-01

    One of the methods used for age estimation of exhumed remains of the missing persons from the recent war in Bosnia and Herzegovina is Iscan et al. rib phase analysis method, developed o n American population. Several researches have tested this method on other populations and proposed modifications for age estimation in a certain population. The purpose of this study is to test the applicability of the mentioned method for age assessment on Bosnian male population. The sample consistS of ribs from 410 identified deceased persons, from the recent war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Whenever possible, the 4th rib has been used. In other cases 3rd, 5th or 6th rib has been used. Adjusted age ranges for each phase were developed specifically for the Bosnian male population. Up to the phase 7 Bosnians reach and finish each phase a little later t han Americans. However phases 7 and 8 were achieved andended earlier in Bosnian population.

  18. Age estimation based on pelvic ossification using regression models from conventional radiography.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-Ai; Fan, Fei; Deng, Zhen-Hua

    2016-07-01

    To establish regression models for age estimation from the combination of the ossification of iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. One thousand three hundred and seventy-nine conventional pelvic radiographs at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to measure the value of estimation of 18 years of age with the classification scheme for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. Regression analysis was performed, and formulas for calculating approximate chronological age according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity were developed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were above 0.9 (p < 0.001), indicating a good prediction of the grading systems, and the cubic regression model was found to have the highest R-square value (R (2) = 0.744 for female and R (2) = 0.753 for male). The present classification scheme for apophyseal iliac crest ossification and the ischial tuberosity may be used for age estimation. And the present established cubic regression model according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity can be used for age estimation. PMID:27169673

  19. Estimation of age based on tooth cementum annulations: A comparative study using light, polarized, and phase contrast microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Kaur, Prabhpreet; Astekar, Madhusudan; Singh, Jappreet; Arora, Karandeep Singh; Bhalla, Gagandeep

    2015-01-01

    Context: The identification of living or deceased persons using unique traits and characteristics of the teeth and jaws is a cornerstone of forensic science. Teeth have been used to estimate age both in the young and old, as well as in the living and dead. Gradual structural changes in teeth throughout life are the basis for age estimation. Tooth cementum annulation (TCA) is a microscopic method for the determination of an individual's age based on the analysis of incremental lines of cementum. Aim: To compare ages estimated using incremental lines of cementum as visualized by bright field microscopy, polarized microscopy, and phase contrast microscopy with the actual age of subject and to determine accuracy and feasibility of the method used. Materials and Methods: Cementum annulations of 60 permanent teeth were analyzed after longitudinal ground sections were made in the mesiodistal plane. The incremental lines were counted manually using a light, polarized and phase contrast microscopy. Ages were estimated and then compared with the actual age of individual. Statistical Analysis: Analysis of variance (ANOVA), Student's t-test, the Pearson product-moment corre (PPMCC) and regression analysis were performed. Results: PPMCC value r = 0.347, 0.542 and 0.989 were obtained using light, polarized and phase contrast microscopy methods respectively. Conclusion: It was concluded that incremental lines of cementum were most clearly visible under a phase contrast microscope, followed by a polarized microscope, and then a light microscope when used for age estimation. PMID:26816462

  20. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    PubMed

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

  1. Skeletal age estimation based on medial clavicle--a test of the method reliability.

    PubMed

    Milenkovic, Petar; Djukic, Ksenija; Djonic, Danijela; Milovanovic, Petar; Djuric, Marija

    2013-05-01

    In order to establish a reliable age indicator in the period when all other epiphyseal age indicators have already been inactivated, medial clavicle as the bone with the longest period of growth became the object of various investigations. However, the lack of population-specific method often made it unreliable in some regions. The current study involved a Balkan population and it was designed in order to examine whether morphological, radiological, and histological analyses of medial clavicles could be applied with success in age assessment of individuals beyond their twenties in anthropological and forensic practice. The medial clavicular specimens were collected from contemporary Serbian population, autopsied in the period from 1998 to 2001, encompassing 67 individuals (42 males and 25 females) with the age range from 20 to 90 years. The conducted analyses of morphological features identified the epiphyseal union timing, signs of lipping in the region of the notch for the first rib as well as exostoses and bone overgrowths of the articular surface margin as age-dependent attributes. Trabecular bone volume fraction and minimum trabecular width were also highlighted as age-distinctive microscopic features. Sex difference was ascertainable in epiphyseal union timing, morphology of the notch for the first rib, margin of the articular surface, and basic morphology of articular surface as well as in two microscopic characteristics: trabecular bone volume fraction and minimum trabecular width. The study managed to identify several age- and sex-related features that could be applied as additional guidance for age estimation in Serbian population. PMID:23329360

  2. Dental age estimation in Malay children based on all permanent teeth types.

    PubMed

    Yusof, M Y P M; Thevissen, P W; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

    2014-03-01

    The applicability of the Willems et al. model was verified on a collected sample of Malay (Malaysian nationality) children. This sample was split in a reference sample to develop a Malay-specific prediction model based on the Willems et al. method and in a test sample to validate this new developed model. Next, the incorporation of third molars into this model was analyzed. Panoramic radiographs (n = 1,403) of Malay children aged between 4 and 14.99 years (n = 702) and subadults aged between 15 and 23.99 years (n = 701) were collected. The left mandibular seven permanent teeth of the children were scored based on the staging technique described by Demirjian and converted to age using the Willems et al. method. Third molar development of all individuals was staged based on the technique described by Gleiser and Hunt modified by Kohler. Differences between dental age and chronological age were calculated and expressed in mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The Willems et al. model verified on the collected Malay children overestimated chronological age with a ME around 0.45 year. Small differences in ME, MAE, and RMSE between the verified Malay-specific prediction model and the Willems et al. model were observed. An overall neglected decrease in RMSE was detected adding third molar stages to the developed permanent teeth model.

  3. Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

    2012-11-30

    Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

  4. Comparing different classifiers for automatic age estimation.

    PubMed

    Lanitis, Andreas; Draganova, Chrisina; Christodoulou, Chris

    2004-02-01

    We describe a quantitative evaluation of the performance of different classifiers in the task of automatic age estimation. In this context, we generate a statistical model of facial appearance, which is subsequently used as the basis for obtaining a compact parametric description of face images. The aim of our work is to design classifiers that accept the model-based representation of unseen images and produce an estimate of the age of the person in the corresponding face image. For this application, we have tested different classifiers: a classifier based on the use of quadratic functions for modeling the relationship between face model parameters and age, a shortest distance classifier, and artificial neural network based classifiers. We also describe variations to the basic method where we use age-specific and/or appearance specific age estimation methods. In this context, we use age estimation classifiers for each age group and/or classifiers for different clusters of subjects within our training set. In those cases, part of the classification procedure is devoted to choosing the most appropriate classifier for the subject/age range in question, so that more accurate age estimates can be obtained. We also present comparative results concerning the performance of humans and computers in the task of age estimation. Our results indicate that machines can estimate the age of a person almost as reliably as humans.

  5. Age Starting Sigmoidoscopy or Colonoscopy Exams Maps and Data of Model-Based Small Area Estimates - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    Age Starting Sigmoidoscopy or Colonoscopy Exams is defined as a person 18 years of age or older who must have reported that he/she thinks that at age 50 people supposed to start having sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy exams.

  6. Age estimation from canine volumes.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gaudio, Daniel; Guercini, Nicola; Cipriani, Filippo; Gibelli, Daniele; Caputi, Sergio; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    Techniques for estimation of biological age are constantly evolving and are finding daily application in the forensic radiology field in cases concerning the estimation of the chronological age of a corpse in order to reconstruct the biological profile, or of a living subject, for example in cases of immigration of people without identity papers from a civil registry. The deposition of teeth secondary dentine and consequent decrease of pulp chamber in size are well known as aging phenomena, and they have been applied to the forensic context by the development of age estimation procedures, such as Kvaal-Solheim and Cameriere methods. The present study takes into consideration canines pulp chamber volume related to the entire teeth volume, with the aim of proposing new regression formulae for age estimation using 91 cone beam computerized scans and a freeware open-source software, in order to permit affordable reproducibility of volumes calculation.

  7. A Comparison of the Accuracy of Four Age Estimation Methods Based on Panoramic Radiography of Developing Teeth

    PubMed Central

    Javadinejad, Shahrzad; Sekhavati, Hajar; Ghafari, Roshanak

    2015-01-01

    Background and aims. Tooth development is widely used in determining age and state of maturity. Dental age is of high importance in forensic and pediatric dentistry and also orthodontic treatment planning .The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of four radiographic age estimation methods. Materials and methods. Orthopantomographic images of 537 healthy children (age: 3.9-14.5 years old) were evaluated. Dental age of the subjects was determined through Demirjian’s, Willem’s, Cameriere’s, and Smith’s methods. Differences and correlations between chronological and dental ages were assessed by paired t-tests and Pearson’s correlation analysis, respectively. Results. The mean chronological age of the subjects was 8.93 ± 2.04 years. Overestimations of age were observed following the use of Demirjian’s method (0.87 ± 1.00 years), Willem’s method (0.36 ± 0.87 years), and Smith’s method (0.06 ± 0.63 years). However, Cameriere’s method underestimated age by 0.19 ± 0.86 years. While paired t-tests revealed significant differences between the mean chronological age and ages determined by Demirjian’s, Willem’s, and Cameriere’s methods (P < 0.001), such a significant difference was absent between chronological age and dental age based on Smith’s method (P = 0.079). Pearson’s correlation analysis suggested linear correlations between chronological age and dental age determined by all four methods. Conclusion. Our findings indicated Smith’s method to have the highest accuracy among the four assessed methods. How-ever, all four methods can be used with acceptable accuracy. PMID:26236431

  8. Estimating the color of maxillary central incisors based on age and gender

    PubMed Central

    Gozalo-Diaz, David; Johnston, William M.; Wee, Alvin G.

    2008-01-01

    Statement of problem There is no scientific information regarding the selection of the color of teeth for edentulous patients. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate linear regression models that may be used to predict color parameters for central incisors of edentulous patients based on some characteristics of dentate subjects. Material and methods A spectroradiometer and an external light source were set in a noncontacting 45/0 degree (45-degree illumination and 0-degree observer) optical configuration to measure the color of subjects’ vital craniofacial structures (maxillary central incisor, attached gingiva, and facial skin). The subjects (n=120) were stratified into 5 age groups with 4 racial groups and balanced for gender. Linear first-order regression was used to determine the significant factors (α=.05) in the prediction model for each color direction of the color of the maxillary central incisor. Age, gender, and color of the other craniofacial structures were studied as potential predictors. Final predictions in each color direction were based only on the statistically significant factors, and then the color differences between observed and predicted CIELAB values for the central incisors were calculated and summarized. Results The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 36% of the total variability in L*. The statistically significant predictor of age accounted for 16% of the total variability in a*. The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 21% of the variability in b*. The mean ΔE (SD) between predicted and observed CIELAB values for the central incisor was 5.8 (3.2). Conclusions Age and gender were found to be statistically significant determinants in predicting the natural color of central incisors. Although the precision of these predictions was less than the median color difference found for all pairs of teeth studied, and may be considered an acceptable precision, further

  9. Estimation of age at death based on quantitation of the 4977-bp deletion of human mitochondrial DNA in skeletal muscle.

    PubMed

    Meissner, C; von Wurmb, N; Schimansky, B; Oehmichen, M

    1999-11-01

    The 4977-bp deletion in human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is known to accumulate in various tissues with age. Since this deletion in mtDNA correlates closest with age in muscle tissue, iliopsoas muscle tissue was taken at autopsy from 50 persons aged 24-97 years to determine whether age at death can be estimated based on the amount of the 4977-bp deletion in skeletal muscle. Total DNA (nuclear and mtDNA) was extracted from 100 mg tissue and the 4977-bp deletion quantified using a kinetic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by visualization of the products on silver stained polyacrylamide gels. The amount of the 4977-bp deletion of mtDNA ranged from 0.00049% to 0.14% depending on age, with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.83 (P = 0.0001). In forensic practice this method can aid in the estimation of age at death with a relatively wide confidence interval, thus enabling a discrimination between young and elderly persons in the identification of human remains based solely on skeletal muscle.

  10. Grid-based estimates of stellar ages in binary systems. SCEPtER: Stellar CharactEristics Pisa Estimation gRid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

    2015-07-01

    Aims: We investigate the performance of grid-based techniques in estimating the age of stars in detached eclipsing binary systems. We evaluate the precision of the estimates due to the uncertainty in the observational constraints - masses, radii, effective temperatures, and [Fe/H] - and the systematic bias caused by the uncertainty in convective core overshooting, element diffusion, mixing-length value, and initial helium content. Methods: We adopted the SCEPtER grid, which includes stars with mass in the range [0.8; 1.6] M⊙ and evolutionary stages from the zero-age main sequence to the central hydrogen depletion. Age estimates have been obtained by a generalisation of the maximum likelihood technique described in our previous work. Results: We showed that the typical 1σ random error in age estimates - due only to the uncertainty affecting the observational constraints - is about ± 7%, which is nearly independent of the masses of the two stars. However, such an error strongly depends on the evolutionary phase and becomes larger and asymmetric for stars near the zero-age main sequence where it ranges from about + 90% to -25%. The systematic bias due to the including convective core overshooting - for mild and strong overshooting scenarios - is about 50% and 120% of the error due to observational uncertainties. A variation of ± 1 in the helium-to-metal enrichment ratio ΔY/ ΔZ accounts for about ± 150% of the random error. The neglect of microscopic diffusion accounts for a bias of about 60% of the error due to observational uncertainties. We also introduced a statistical test of the expected difference in the recovered age of two coeval stars in a binary system. We find that random fluctuations within the current observational uncertainties can lead genuine coeval binary components to appear to be non-coeval with a difference in age as high as 60%. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  11. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  12. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

  13. Uncertainties in asteroseismic grid-based estimates of stellar ages. SCEPtER: Stellar CharactEristics Pisa Estimation gRid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

    2015-03-01

    Context. Stellar age determination by means of grid-based techniques that adopt asteroseismic constraints is a well established method nowadays. However some theoretical aspects of the systematic and statistical errors affecting these age estimates still have to be investigated. Aims: We study the impact on stellar age determination of the uncertainty in the radiative opacity, in the initial helium abundance, in the mixing-length value, in the convective core overshooting, and in the microscopic diffusion efficiency adopted in stellar model computations. Methods: We extended our SCEPtER grid to include stars with mass in the range [0.8; 1.6] M⊙ and evolutionary stages from the zero-age main sequence to the central hydrogen depletion. For the age estimation we adopted the same maximum likelihood technique as described in our previous work. To quantify the systematic errors arising from the current uncertainty in model computations, many synthetic grids of stellar models with perturbed input were adopted. Results: We found that the current typical uncertainty in the observations accounts for 1σ statistical relative error in age determination, which on average ranges from about -35% to +42%, depending on the mass. However, owing to the strong dependence on the evolutionary phase, the age's relative error can be higher than 120% for stars near the zero-age main sequence, while it is typically of the order of 20% or lower in the advanced main-sequence phase. The systematic bias on age determination due to a variation of ±1 in the helium-to-metal enrichment ratio ΔY/ΔZ is about one-fourth of the statistical error in the first 30% of the evolution, while it is negligible for more evolved stages. The maximum bias due to the presence of the convective core overshooting is -7% and -13% for mild and strong overshooting scenarios. For all the examined models, the impact of a variation of ±5% in the radiative opacity was found to be negligible. The most important source

  14. Estimating age-based antiretroviral therapy costs for HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings based on World Health Organization weight-based dosing recommendations

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been shown to substantially reduce morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected infants and children. To accurately project program costs, analysts need accurate estimations of antiretroviral drug (ARV) costs for children. However, the costing of pediatric antiretroviral therapy is complicated by weight-based dosing recommendations which change as children grow. Methods We developed a step-by-step methodology for estimating the cost of pediatric ARV regimens for children ages 0–13 years old. The costing approach incorporates weight-based dosing recommendations to provide estimated ARV doses throughout childhood development. Published unit drug costs are then used to calculate average monthly drug costs. We compared our derived monthly ARV costs to published estimates to assess the accuracy of our methodology. Results The estimates of monthly ARV costs are provided for six commonly used first-line pediatric ARV regimens, considering three possible care scenarios. The costs derived in our analysis for children were fairly comparable to or slightly higher than available published ARV drug or regimen estimates. Conclusions The methodology described here can be used to provide an accurate estimation of pediatric ARV regimen costs for cost-effectiveness analysts to project the optimum packages of care for HIV-infected children, as well as for program administrators and budget analysts who wish to assess the feasibility of increasing pediatric ART availability in constrained budget environments. PMID:24885453

  15. Age group estimation in free-ranging African elephants based on acoustic cues of low-frequency rumbles

    PubMed Central

    Stoeger, Angela S.; Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Baotic, Anton

    2015-01-01

    Animal vocal signals are increasingly used to monitor wildlife populations and to obtain estimates of species occurrence and abundance. In the future, acoustic monitoring should function not only to detect animals, but also to extract detailed information about populations by discriminating sexes, age groups, social or kin groups, and potentially individuals. Here we show that it is possible to estimate age groups of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on acoustic parameters extracted from rumbles recorded under field conditions in a National Park in South Africa. Statistical models reached up to 70 % correct classification to four age groups (infants, calves, juveniles, adults) and 95 % correct classification when categorising into two groups (infants/calves lumped into one group versus adults). The models revealed that parameters representing absolute frequency values have the most discriminative power. Comparable classification results were obtained by fully automated classification of rumbles by high-dimensional features that represent the entire spectral envelope, such as MFCC (75 % correct classification) and GFCC (74 % correct classification). The reported results and methods provide the scientific foundation for a future system that could potentially automatically estimate the demography of an acoustically monitored elephant group or population. PMID:25821348

  16. A comparison of LMP-based and ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age using linked California livebirth and prenatal screening records.

    PubMed

    Dietz, Patricia M; England, Lucinda J; Callaghan, William M; Pearl, Michelle; Wier, Megan L; Kharrazi, Martin

    2007-09-01

    Although early ultrasound (<20 weeks' gestation) systematically underestimates the gestational age of smaller fetuses by approximately 1-2 days, this bias is relatively small compared with the large error introduced by last menstrual period (LMP) estimates of gestation, as evidenced by the number of implausible birthweight-for-gestational age. To characterise this misclassification, we compared gestational age estimates based on LMP from California birth certificates with those based on early ultrasound from a California linked Statewide Expanded Alpha-fetoprotein Screening Program (XAFP). The final sample comprised 165 908 women. Birthweight distributions were plotted by gestational age; sensitivity and positive predictive value for preterm rates according to LMP were calculated using ultrasound as the 'gold standard'. For gestational ages 20-27 and 28-31 weeks, the LMP-based birthweight distributions were bimodal, whereas the ultrasound-based distributions were unimodal, but had long right tails. At 32-36 weeks, the LMP distribution was wider, flatter, and shifted to the right, compared with the ultrasound distribution. LMP vs. ultrasound estimates were, respectively, 8.7% vs. 7.9% preterm (<37 weeks), 81.2% vs. 91.0% term (37-41 weeks), and 10.1% vs. 1.1% post-term (>or=42 weeks). The sensitivity of the LMP-based preterm birth estimate was 64.3%, and the positive predictive value was 58.7%. Overall, 17.2% of the records had estimates with an absolute difference of >14 days. The groups most likely to have inconsistent gestational age estimates included African American and Hispanic women, younger and less-educated women, and those who entered prenatal care after the second month of pregnancy. In conclusion, we found substantial misclassification of LMP-based gestational age. The 2003 revised US Standard Certificate of Live Birth includes a new gestational age item, the obstetric estimate. It will be important to assess whether this estimate addresses the problems

  17. Biometric and Eddy-Covariance Based Estimates of Ecosystem Carbon Exchange in an Age-Sequence of Temperate Pine Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peichl, M.; Arain, M. A.; Brodeur, J. J.; Khomik, M.

    2009-05-01

    We determined and compared annual carbon (C) exchanges from biometric and eddy-covariance (EC) measurements in an age-sequence (6-, 19-, 34-, 69-years old) of managed pine (Pinus strobus L.) forests in southern Ontario from 2005-2007. The biometric approach determined annual above- and belowground tree biomass production from site-specific allometric biomass equations depending on either tree diameter at breast height (DBH) only (method B1) or on DBH with tree height as additional variable (method B2). In addition, detritus production and heterotrophic soil respiration were determined. Data from continuous closed- path measurements at the oldest site and from a roving open-path system among the three younger sites provided EC-based estimates of C exchanges (method EC). The contribution of individual net primary productivity (NPP) components varied considerably with stand age, suggesting different dominant fluxes and uncertainty levels occurring at various forest development stages. All methods produced similar patterns for inter-annual variations with highest (lowest) C fluxes in 2006 (2005). While on an annual basis, differences between methods ranged from ± 4-67% for estimates of annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP), the differences were within ± 15% when averaged over three years, except for the 34-year old stand. Mean annual NEP was estimated by the biometric method B1 (B2) as 1 (N.A.), 394 (634), 134 (265), and 124 (272) g C m-2 y-1 compared to 47, 724, 408, and 119 g C m-2 y-1 by the EC method for the 6-, 19-, 34-, 69-years old stands, respectively. The biometric method B1 agreed best with the EC estimates in the youngest and the oldest stand, but estimated considerably lower productivity rates than the EC method in the two middle-age stands in which method B2 showed a better agreement with method EC by accounting for the vigorous height growth in these stands. Thus, our comparison study shows that the use of inadequate allometric equations may

  18. Chronological age estimation based on third molar development in a Portuguese population.

    PubMed

    Caldas, Inês Morais; Júlio, Paula; Simões, Ricardo Jorge; Matos, Eduarda; Afonso, Américo; Magalhães, Teresa

    2011-03-01

    Third molar development was assessed using a sample of 1,131 orthopantomograms from a Portuguese population. The methodology applied was the eight stages (A-H) method described by Demirjian et al. The final sample was made of 739 orthopantomograms, 387 (52.5%) of which belonging to females; age ranged between 6.1 and 22.5 years old (mean age = 14.49, S.D. = 4.37). For each developmental stage, mean age, standard deviation, and minimal and maximal age was assessed; evaluation of the rate formation of each tooth, according to sex, was calculated and data distribution expressed in percentiles for each stage; the probability of an individual being 16 was also evaluated. The relationship between tooth development and chronological age had a statistical significance for all teeth and both sexes (p < 0.0001). The data described may provide reference for forensic application and agree with the thesis that each population need specific data.

  19. Risk Factors for Learning-Related Behavior Problems at 24 Months of Age: Population-Based Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Paul

    2011-01-01

    We used a large sample of singleton children to estimate the effects of socioeconomic status (SES), race/ethnicity, gender, additional socio-demographics, gestational and birth factors, and parenting on children's risk for learning-related behavior problems at 24 months of age. We investigated to what extent these factors increased a child's risk of displaying inattention, a lack of task persistence, disinterest, non-cooperation, or frustration as he or she completed a series of cognitive and physical tasks with a non-caregiver. Results indicated that boys are about twice as likely as girls to display learning-related behavior problems. Children from lower SES households are about twice as likely as those from high SES households to display such behavior problems, which is largely attributable to the effects of having a mother with a low educational level. Statistically controlling for these factors, we found consistently significant patterns of elevated learning-related behavior problems for some Asian and Native American children. Results for African-American children were mixed. Hispanic children did not have elevated risks of problem behaviors. Only small portions of these effects are explained by variation in the children's gestational or birth characteristics. A significant portion, but still less than half of the socio-demographic effects are attributable to measured features of the children's parenting. This study helps provide population-based estimates of children's risk for learning-related behavior problems while at an age when early interventions are most effective. PMID:19057886

  20. Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Toshio; Koike, Hiroko; Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru

    2015-10-01

    In this study, 14C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-14C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for 14C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global 14C contents (F14C). The F14C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F14C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

  1. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    PubMed

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age.

  2. Age estimation of juvenile European hake Merluccius merluccius based on otolith microstructure analysis: a slow or fast growth pattern?

    PubMed

    Pattoura, P; Lefkaditou, E; Megalofonou, P

    2015-03-01

    The main goal of this study was to examine otolith microstructure and to estimate the age and growth of European hake Merluccius merluccius from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. One hundred and twenty-nine specimens ranging from 102 to 438 mm in total length (LT ) were used. Age estimations were based on the study of the otolith microstructure, which was revealed after grinding both frontal sides of otoliths. The enumerations of the daily growth increments (DGI) as well as their width (WDGI ) measurements were made on calibrated digital images. The number of DGI in otoliths ranged between 163 and 717. Four phases in the WDGI evolution were distinguished: (1) larval-juvenile pelagic phase, with an increasing trend in WDGI up to the 60th DGI, (2) settlement phase, with a short-term deceleration in WDGI between the 61st and 150th DGI, (3) juvenile demersal phase, characterized by a stabilization of WDGI from 151st to 400th DGI and (4) adult phase, with a decreasing trend in WDGI after the 400th DGI. Age, sex and month of formation were found to affect the WDGI in all phases, with the exception of age at the juvenile demersal phase. The power curve with intercept model described best the relationship of M. merluccius LT with age (TDGI ), according to Akaike criteria, revealing differences in growth between females [LT = 65 · 36(TDGI )(0 · 40) - 388 · 55] and males [LT = 69 · 32(TDGI )(0 · 37) - 352 · 88] for the sizes examined. The mean daily growth rates were 0·61 mm day(-1) for females and 0·52 mm day(-1) for males, resulting in an LT of 283 and 265 mm at the end of their first year of life. In comparison with previous studies on the Mediterranean Sea, the results of this study showed a greater growth rate, similar to results from tagging experiments and otolith microstructure analyses for M. merluccius in other geographic areas. PMID:25545134

  3. Age estimation of indian adults from orthopantomographs.

    PubMed

    Saxena, Sudhanshu

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a method for estimating the chronological age of Indian adults based on the relationship between age and various morphological variables of canine teeth, obtained using orthopantomographs. Orthopantomographs of 120 selected patients were digitized, and radiographic images of the right maxillary canine in each case were processed using a computer aided drafting program. Pulp/tooth area ratio, pulp/root length ratio, pulp/tooth length ratio, pulp/root width ratio at the cemento-enamel junction level, pulp/root width ratio at midroot level, and pulp/root width ratio at the midpoint between the cemento-enamel junction and the midroot of the canine were calculated by measuring various features on the images. Pearson's correlation, multiple linear regression, one way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Student's t-test were used for statistical analysis. Regression equations were developed to estimate age from morphological variables. The observed minus the estimated age in the total study sample ranged from -2.2 to +1.5 years, in males from -0.9 to +0.8 years, while in females it was from -1 to +0.8 years. Differences between observed and estimated ages of subjects were not statistically significant. In conclusion there is a linear relationship of pulp/root width ratio at mid-root level and pulp/tooth area ratio of the right maxillary canine with chronological age in the Indian population. Age of subjects can therefore be estimated with a good degree of accuracy using regression equations. PMID:21503416

  4. Age and sex suicide rates in the Eastern Mediterranean Region based on global burden of disease estimates for 2000.

    PubMed

    Rezaeian, M

    2007-01-01

    Suicide was estimated to be the 25th leading cause of death in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region in the year 2000. Using data from the WHO global burden of disease project, estimated rates of suicidal deaths were plotted for different sex and age groups. Overall rates of suicide were higher in females than males in age groups 5-14 and 15-29 years. The peak age for suicides among females was 15-29 years (8.6 per 100,000) and for males 60+ years (100,000). As a proportion of all deaths due to injury, suicides were substantially higher in females than males. Females in high-income countries had the lowest rates of suicide in all age groups and males in high-income countries had a lower rate than males in low- and middle-income countries.

  5. Age estimation in subadult Egyptian remains.

    PubMed

    Boccone, S; Micheletti Cremasco, M; Bortoluzzi, S; Moggi-Cecchi, J; Rabino Massa, E

    2010-10-01

    In anthropological analyses of past populations, it is very important to be able to accurately reconstruct the palaeodemographic profile in order to interpret infant mortality as an indicator of the environmental, social and cultural conditions. There are various methods to evaluate the age of immature individuals but some of these methods are strongly influenced by the different rates of skeletal development observed in populations from various geographical areas and/or from various time periods, as well as between the sexes. Clearly, there is a need for adopting a method of estimation of age at death, which will be the one most suitable for analysing the particular skeletal sample. In this study we investigated subadults from the Egyptian osteological collection housed in the Museum of Anthropology and Ethnography of the University of Turin. For each individual, the age at death was estimated based on the degree of eruption and mineralisation of the teeth. Then the estimated age at death was correlated with the measurements of the long bones and ilium. We showed that greater regularity and constancy of rates of skeletal growth could be assessed with measurements, alternative to using maximum length of diaphysis. Moreover, using alternative characters, it was possible to markedly increase the number of individuals whose age at death could be estimated. Our study also showed the need to use a reference sample consistent with the sample being analysed and, which was derived from similar biological-environmental context. Therefore, our proposed method can be used for the estimation of age at death in pre/protohistorical populations from the Mediterranean region.

  6. Risk Factors for Learning-Related Behavior Problems at 24 Months of Age: Population-Based Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morgan, Paul L.; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Maczuga, Steven

    2009-01-01

    We used a large sample of singleton children to estimate the effects of socioeconomic status (SES), race/ethnicity, gender, additional socio-demographics, gestational and birth factors, and parenting on children's risk for learning-related behavior problems at 24 months of age. We investigated to what extent these factors increased a child's risk…

  7. The Impact of Case Definition on ADHD Prevalence Estimates in Community-Based Samples of School-Aged Children

    PubMed Central

    McKeown, Robert E.; Holbrook, Joseph R.; Danielson, Melissa L.; Cuffe, Steven P.; Wolraich, Mark L.; Visser, Susanna N.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the impact of varying ADHD diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Method Parent and teacher reports identified ADHD high and low screen children from elementary schools in two states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children – IV (DISC-IV), and up to four additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. Results At baseline 1060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least one follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported six or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI: 18.1%–23.2%) and 29.8% (CI: 24.5%–35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age seven (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI: 14.7%–18.0%) and 17.5% (CI: 13.3%–22.8%); requiring at least four teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI: 7.4%–10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased this estimate to 11.3% (CI: 9.5%–13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age seven onset (CI: 5.9%–11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI: 7.6%–21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the estimate to 13.1% (CI: 7.7%–21.5%). Conclusion These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. PMID:25524790

  8. Using Dental Age to Estimate Chronological Age in Czech Children Aged 3-18 Years.

    PubMed

    Ginzelová, Kristina; Dostálová, Taťjana; Eliášová, Hana; Vinšů, Alex; Buček, Antonín; Bučková, Michaela

    2015-01-01

    The Demirjian methods to determine dental age are based on analysis of orthopantograms. The dental age estimation is based on establishing the tooth development stages. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of estimation of dental age by Demirjian in the use of all of his four methods. 505 Czech healthy boys and girls aged 3 to 18 years were examined radiographically at the Department of Stomatology, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University in Prague. It was mentioned the factors of underlying diseases influence the accuracy of the dental age estimation. For statistical evaluation, descriptive statistics was used to compare deviations of the mean values of chronological and dental age in each age group. The resulting difference between dental age and chronological age is not significant in both genders only when using both Demirjian 7-teeth methods of 1973 and 1976. Therefore these may be most appropriately used for forensic age estimation. There are shown standard deviation differences in different countries. Demirjian's original 7-teeth method from 1973 and Demirjian's revised 4-teeth method from 1976 appear to be the best methods for calculating the dental age of healthy Czech children of both genders. PMID:26093668

  9. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    PubMed Central

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  10. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  11. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  12. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  13. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    SciTech Connect

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-08-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of (4.4, 43.7) ka.

  14. A Prospective Hospital-based Surveillance to Estimate Rotavirus Disease Burden in Bhutanese Children under 5 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Wangchuk, Sonam; Dorji, Tshering; Tsheten; Tshering, Karchung; Zangmo, Sangay; Pem Tshering, Kunzang; Dorji, Tandin; Nishizono, Akira; Ahmed, Kamruddin

    2015-01-01

    As part of efforts to develop an informed policy for rotavirus vaccination, this prospective study was conducted to estimate the burden of rotavirus diarrhea among children less than 5 years old attended to the Department of Pediatrics, Jigme Dorji Wangchuk National Referral Hospital (JDWNRH), Thimphu, Bhutan. The duration of the study was three years, extending from February 2010 through December 2012. We estimated the frequency of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and dehydration treatment unit (DTU) for diarrhea and the number of events attributable to rotavirus infection among children under 5 years of age. During the study period, a total of 284 children (1 in 45) were hospitalized in the pediatric ward, and 2,220 (1 in 6) in the DTU with diarrhea among children residing in the Thimphu district. Group A rotavirus was detected in 32.5% and 18.8% of the stool samples from children hospitalized in the pediatric ward, respectively. Overall, 22.3% of the stool samples were rotavirus-positive, and the majority (90.8%) of them was detected in children under 2 years of age. From this study, we estimated that the annual incidence of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and DTU due to rotavirus diarrhea was 2.4/1000 (95% CI 1.7–3.4) and 10.8/1000 (95% CI 9.1–12.7) children, respectively. This study revealed that rotavirus is a major cause of diarrhea in Bhutanese children in Thimphu district and since no study has been performed previously, represents an important finding for policy discussions regarding the adoption of a rotavirus vaccine in Bhutan. PMID:25859154

  15. Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

  16. Combining facial dynamics with appearance for age estimation.

    PubMed

    Dibeklioglu, Hamdi; Alnajar, Fares; Ali Salah, Albert; Gevers, Theo

    2015-06-01

    Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We propose a method to extract and use dynamic features for age estimation, using a person's smile. Our approach is tested on a large, gender-balanced database with 400 subjects, with an age range between 8 and 76. In addition, we introduce a new database on posed disgust expressions with 324 subjects in the same age range, and evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach when used with another expression. State-of-the-art appearance-based age estimation methods from the literature are implemented as baseline. We demonstrate that for each of these methods, the addition of the proposed dynamic features results in statistically significant improvement. We further propose a novel hierarchical age estimation architecture based on adaptive age grouping. We test our approach extensively, including an exploration of spontaneous versus posed smile dynamics, and gender-specific age estimation. We show that using spontaneity information reduces the mean absolute error by up to 21%, advancing the state of the art for facial age estimation. PMID:25781877

  17. Estimation of the stand ages of tropical secondary forests after shifting cultivation based on the combination of WorldView-2 and time-series Landsat images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujiki, Shogoro; Okada, Kei-ichi; Nishio, Shogo; Kitayama, Kanehiro

    2016-09-01

    We developed a new method to estimate stand ages of secondary vegetation in the Bornean montane zone, where local people conduct traditional shifting cultivation and protected areas are surrounded by patches of recovering secondary vegetation of various ages. Identifying stand ages at the landscape level is critical to improve conservation policies. We combined a high-resolution satellite image (WorldView-2) with time-series Landsat images. We extracted stand ages (the time elapsed since the most recent slash and burn) from a change-detection analysis with Landsat time-series images and superimposed the derived stand ages on the segments classified by object-based image analysis using WorldView-2. We regarded stand ages as a response variable, and object-based metrics as independent variables, to develop regression models that explain stand ages. Subsequently, we classified the vegetation of the target area into six age units and one rubber plantation unit (1-3 yr, 3-5 yr, 5-7 yr, 7-30 yr, 30-50 yr, >50 yr and 'rubber plantation') using regression models and linear discriminant analyses. Validation demonstrated an accuracy of 84.3%. Our approach is particularly effective in classifying highly dynamic pioneer vegetation younger than 7 years into 2-yr intervals, suggesting that rapid changes in vegetation canopies can be detected with high accuracy. The combination of a spectral time-series analysis and object-based metrics based on high-resolution imagery enabled the classification of dynamic vegetation under intensive shifting cultivation and yielded an informative land cover map based on stand ages.

  18. Age at death estimation from bone histology in Malaysian males.

    PubMed

    Nor, Faridah Mohd; Pastor, Robert F; Schutkowski, Holger

    2014-10-01

    Estimation of age from microscopic examination of human bone utilizes bone remodeling. This allows 2 regression equation to be determined in a specific population based on the variation in osteon turnover in different populations. The aim of this study was to provide age estimation for Malaysian males. Ground undecalcified cross sections were prepared from long limb bones of 50 deceased males aged between 21 and 78 years. Ten microstructural parameters were measured and subjected to multivariate regression analysis. Results showed that osteon count had the highest correlation with age (R = 0.43), and age was estimated to be within 10.94 years of the true value in 98% of males. Cross validation of the equation on 50 individuals showed close correspondence of true ages with estimated ages. Further studies are needed to validate and expand these results.

  19. Quantifying Age-based Forest Carbon Dynamics to Estimate Effects of Wildfire on Carbon Balance: a Multi-scale Empirical Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raymond, C. L.; McKenzie, D.

    2009-12-01

    Disturbances affect biomass accumulation and net primary productivity (NPP) across large landscapes by altering the age-class distribution of the landscape. For fire disturbances specifically, a theoretical age-class distribution can be analytically derived from the mean fire return interval using a negative exponential model. However, to determine the consequences of these ecosystem-specific fire return intervals for biomass accumulation and NPP, it is necessary to quantify age-based carbon dynamics at a similar scale. We used chronosequences of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to fit empirical models of live biomass carbon accumulation and NPP as a function of stand age. Models were fit at both coarse (ecosections) and fine (potential vegetation types) scales for the forested region of Washington, USA. At the ecosection scale, the Western Cascades and the Coastal ecosection had the highest levels of live biomass C (26.8 and 22.0 kg C/m2 respectively). The fitted maximum live biomass C was lower in the Eastern Cascades (12.2 kg C/m2) and lowest in the Okanogan Highlands (7.56 kg C/m2). However, the order of the ecosections differed for the rate at which these maximums were reached. The Coast and Okanogan Highlands reached maximum live biomass more rapidly than the Eastern and Western Cascades. For the fitted NPP models, maximum NPP was highest in the Coastal ecosection (0.699 kg C/m^2/yr), lowest in the Eastern Cascades (0.196 kg C/m^2/yr) and Okanogan Highlands (0.195 kg C/m^2/yr), and intermediate in the Western Cascades (0.397 kg C/m^2/yr). Surprisingly, all ecosections reached maximum NPP at a similar stand age (approximately 80 years). We then developed similar models at the scale of potential vegetation types within ecosections. These age-based patterns of carbon dynamics, in combination with landscape age-class distributions, provide an empirical approach for estimating the impact of wildfire on biomass accumulation and NPP at the ecosystem scale

  20. Age Estimates for the Buckwheat Family Polygonaceae Based on Sequence Data Calibrated by Fossils and with a Focus on the Amphi-Pacific Muehlenbeckia

    PubMed Central

    Kron, Kathleen A.

    2013-01-01

    The buckwheat family Polygonaceae is a diverse group of plants and is a good model for investigating biogeography, breeding systems, coevolution with symbionts such as ants and fungi, functional trait evolution, hybridization, invasiveness, morphological plasticity, pollen morphology and wood anatomy. The main goal of this study was to obtain age estimates for Polygonaceae by calibrating a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, using a relaxed molecular clock with fossil data. Based on the age estimates, we also develop hypotheses about the historical biogeography of the Southern Hemisphere group Muehlenbeckia. We are interested in addressing whether vicariance or dispersal could account for the diversification of Muehlenbeckia, which has a “Gondwanan” distribution. Eighty-one species of Polygonaceae were analysed with MrBayes to infer species relationships. One nuclear (nrITS) and three chloroplast markers (the trnL-trnF spacer region, matK and ndhF genes) were used. The molecular data were also analysed with Beast to estimate divergence times. Seven calibration points including fossil pollen and a leaf fossil of Muehlenbeckia were used to infer node ages. Results of the Beast analyses indicate an age of 110.9 (exponential/lognormal priors)/118.7 (uniform priors) million years (Myr) with an uncertainty interval of (90.7–125.0) Myr for the stem age of Polygonaceae. This age is older than previously thought (Maastrichtian, approximately 65.5–70.6 Myr). The estimated divergence time for Muehlenbeckia is 41.0/41.6 (39.6–47.8) Myr and its crown clade is 20.5/22.3 (14.2–33.5) Myr old. Because the breakup of Gondwana occurred from 95–30 Myr ago, diversification of Muehlenbeckia is best explained by oceanic long-distance and maybe stepping-stone dispersal rather than vicariance. This study is the first to give age estimates for clades of Polygonaceae and functions as a jumping-off point for future studies on the historical biogeography of the family. PMID:23585884

  1. Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity. PMID:26079404

  2. Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity.

  3. Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

    2010-01-01

    We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in

  4. Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites-National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1992-2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hinkle, Stephen R.; Shapiro, Stephanie D.; Plummer, L. Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Widman, Peggy K.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Wayland, Julian E.

    2011-01-01

    This report documents selected age data interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers in groundwater from 1,399 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites across the United States. The tracers of interest were chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis primarily were from wells representing two types of NAWQA groundwater studies - Land-Use Studies (shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings) and Major-Aquifer Studies (wells, usually domestic supply wells, in principal aquifers and representing the shallow, used resource). Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) associated with Land-Use Studies also were included. Tracer samples were collected between 1992 and 2005, although two networks sampled from 2006 to 2007 were included because of network-specific needs. Tracer data from other NAWQA Program components (Flow System Studies, which are assessments of processes and trends along groundwater flow paths, and various topical studies) were not compiled herein. Tracer data from NAWQA Land-Use Studies and Major-Aquifer Studies that previously had been interpreted and published are compiled herein (as piston-flow ages), but have not been reinterpreted. Tracer data that previously had not been interpreted and published are evaluated using documented methods and compiled with aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF6), estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages, and selected ancillary data, such as redox indicators, well construction, and major dissolved gases (N2, O2, Ar, CH4, and CO2). Tracer-based piston-flow ages documented in this report are simplistic representations of the tracer data. Tracer-based piston-flow ages are a convenient means of conceptualizing groundwater age. However, the piston

  5. Precision of two methods for estimating age from burbot otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Edwards, W.H.; Stapanian, M.A.; Stoneman, A.T.

    2011-01-01

    Lower reproductive success and older age structure are associated with many burbot (Lota lota L.) populations that are declining or of conservation concern. Therefore, reliable methods for estimating the age of burbot are critical for effective assessment and management. In Lake Erie, burbot populations have declined in recent years due to the combined effects of an aging population (&xmacr; = 10 years in 2007) and extremely low recruitment since 2002. We examined otoliths from burbot (N = 91) collected in Lake Erie in 2007 and compared the estimates of burbot age by two agers, each using two established methods (cracked-and-burned and thin-section) of estimating ages from burbot otoliths. One ager was experienced at estimating age from otoliths, the other was a novice. Agreement (precision) between the two agers was higher for the thin-section method, particularly at ages 6–11 years, based on linear regression analyses and 95% confidence intervals. As expected, precision between the two methods was higher for the more experienced ager. Both agers reported that the thin sections offered clearer views of the annuli, particularly near the margins on otoliths from burbot ages ≥8. Slides for the thin sections required some costly equipment and more than 2 days to prepare. In contrast, preparing the cracked-and-burned samples was comparatively inexpensive and quick. We suggest use of the thin-section method for estimating the age structure of older burbot populations.

  6. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  7. Estimated age and gender profile of individuals missed by a home-based HIV testing and counselling campaign in a Botswana community

    PubMed Central

    Novitsky, Vlad; Bussmann, Hermann; Okui, Lillian; Logan, Andrew; Moyo, Sikhulile; van Widenfelt, Erik; Mmalane, Mompati; Lei, Quanhong; Holme, Molly P; Makhema, Joseph; Lockman, Shahin; Degruttola, Victor; Essex, M

    2015-01-01

    Introduction It would be useful to understand which populations are not reached by home-based HIV-1 testing and counselling (HTC) to improve strategies aimed at linking these individuals to care and reducing rates of onward HIV transmission. Methods We present the results of a baseline home-based HTC (HBHTC) campaign aimed at counselling and testing residents aged 16 to 64 for HIV in the north-eastern sector of Mochudi, a community in Botswana with about 44,000 inhabitants. Collected data were compared with population references for Botswana, the United Nations (UN) estimates based on the National Census data and the Botswana AIDS Impact Survey IV (BAIS-IV). Analyzed data and references were stratified by age and gender. Results A total of 6238 age-eligible residents were tested for HIV-1; 1247 (20.0%; 95% CI 19.0 to 21.0%) were found to be HIV positive (23.7% of women vs. 13.4% of men). HIV-1 prevalence peaked at 44% in 35- to 39-year-old women and 32% in 40- to 44-year-old men. A lower HIV prevalence rate, 10.9% (95% CI 9.5 to 12.5%), was found among individuals tested for the first time. A significant gender gap was evident in all analyzed subsets. The existing HIV transmission network was analyzed by combining phylogenetic mapping and household structure. Between 62.4 and 71.8% of all HIV-positive individuals had detectable virus. When compared with the UN and BAIS-IV estimates, the proportion of men missed by the testing campaign (48.5%; 95% CI 47.0 to 50.0%) was significantly higher than the proportion of missed women (14.2%; 95% CI 13.2 to 15.3%; p<0.0001). The estimated proportion of missed men peaked at about 60% in the age group 30 to 39 years old. The proportions of missed women were substantially smaller, at approximately 28% within the age groups 30 to 34 and 45 to 49 years old. Conclusions The HBHTC campaign seems to be an efficient tool for reaching individuals who have never been tested previously in southern African communities. However, about half

  8. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    PubMed

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

  9. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    PubMed

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions. PMID:20847387

  10. Estimation of the age and amount of brown rice plant hoppers based on bionic electronic nose use.

    PubMed

    Xu, Sai; Zhou, Zhiyan; Lu, Huazhong; Luo, Xiwen; Lan, Yubin; Zhang, Yang; Li, Yanfang

    2014-09-29

    The brown rice plant hopper (BRPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), is one of the most important insect pests affecting rice and causes serious damage to the yield and quality of rice plants in Asia. This study used bionic electronic nose technology to sample BRPH volatiles, which vary in age and amount. Principal component analysis (PCA), linear discrimination analysis (LDA), probabilistic neural network (PNN), BP neural network (BPNN) and loading analysis (Loadings) techniques were used to analyze the sampling data. The results indicate that the PCA and LDA classification ability is poor, but the LDA classification displays superior performance relative to PCA. When a PNN was used to evaluate the BRPH age and amount, the classification rates of the training set were 100% and 96.67%, respectively, and the classification rates of the test set were 90.67% and 64.67%, respectively. When BPNN was used for the evaluation of the BRPH age and amount, the classification accuracies of the training set were 100% and 48.93%, respectively, and the classification accuracies of the test set were 96.67% and 47.33%, respectively. Loadings for BRPH volatiles indicate that the main elements of BRPHs' volatiles are sulfur-containing organics, aromatics, sulfur-and chlorine-containing organics and nitrogen oxides, which provide a reference for sensors chosen when exploited in specialized BRPH identification devices. This research proves the feasibility and broad application prospects of bionic electronic noses for BRPH recognition.

  11. Longevity of Atlantic Sharpnose Sharks Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Blacknose Sharks Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean based on tag-recapture data and direct age estimates.

    PubMed

    Frazier, Bryan S; Driggers Iii, William B; Ulrich, Glenn F

    2014-01-01

    Longevity of Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean was examined using direct age estimates from vertebral sections and tag-recapture data. Time-at-liberty ranged from 7.7-14.0 years (mean =10.1) for R. terraenovae and 10.9-12.8 years (mean =11.9) for C. acronotus. Maximum estimated longevity was determined to be 19.8 years through tag-recapture data and 18.5 years from direct age estimates for R. terraenovae and 22.8 years through tag-recapture data and 20.5 years through direct age estimates for C. acronotus. These longevity estimates represent a large increase over previous estimates and may have significant effects on analyses that depend on longevity including lifetime fecundity, mortality rates, demographic analyses and stock assessments. PMID:25685321

  12. Longevity of Atlantic Sharpnose Sharks Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Blacknose Sharks Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean based on tag-recapture data and direct age estimates

    PubMed Central

    Frazier, Bryan S.; Driggers III, William B.; Ulrich, Glenn F.

    2015-01-01

    Longevity of Rhizoprionodon terraenovae and Carcharhinus acronotus in the western North Atlantic Ocean was examined using direct age estimates from vertebral sections and tag-recapture data. Time-at-liberty ranged from 7.7-14.0 years (mean =10.1) for R. terraenovae and 10.9-12.8 years (mean =11.9) for C. acronotus. Maximum estimated longevity was determined to be 19.8 years through tag-recapture data and 18.5 years from direct age estimates for R. terraenovae and 22.8 years through tag-recapture data and 20.5 years through direct age estimates for C. acronotus. These longevity estimates represent a large increase over previous estimates and may have significant effects on analyses that depend on longevity including lifetime fecundity, mortality rates, demographic analyses and stock assessments. PMID:25685321

  13. Comparative Analysis of Old-Age Mortality Estimations in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

    2011-01-01

    Background Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Methods Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals (5qx). We then compare our 5qx estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. Findings We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8–7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6–15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Interpretation Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become

  14. Age estimation using maxillary central incisors: A radiographic study

    PubMed Central

    Agarwal, Nitin; Ahuja, Parul; Sinha, Abhishek; Singh, Anil

    2012-01-01

    Background: In the field of forensic dentistry, secondary changes in teeth with advancing age have been used as reliable predictors of age in various studies. Aim: The purpose of the present study was to present a method for assessing the chronological age based on the relationship between age and morphological parameters of maxillary central incisors. Materials and Methods: Fifty subjects between 20-70 years of age were included in the study. Intraoral periapical radiographs were taken in relation to maxillary central incisors using paralleling technique. The following measurements were recorded: lengths of tooth, pulp, root and width of root and pulp at three different points. Regression formulas were used to calculate the dental age. Results: The mean estimated age showed no statistically significant difference from the actual mean age (P > 0.05). Also, maximum difference was seen for root length variable (-1.035 ± 1.86 years). PMID:23741151

  15. Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of methylmercury to estimate exposures in US women of childbearing age.

    PubMed

    Allen, Bruce C; Hack, C Eric; Clewell, Harvey J

    2007-08-01

    A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16-49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 microg/kg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 microg/kg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability

  16. [Using Lamendin and Meindl-Lovejoy methods for age at death estimation of the unknown person].

    PubMed

    Bednarek, Jarosław; Engelgardt, Piotr; Bloch-Bogusławska, Elzbieta; Sliwka, Karol

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents the precise description of two methods used for age estimation on the base of single rooted tooth and cranial suture obliteration. Using the methods mentioned above, the age at death of the unknown person was estimated. A comparison of the estimated age and chronological age derived after identification, showed high usefulness of the mentioned methods.

  17. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  18. Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanford, W. E.

    2015-12-01

    Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially

  19. Estimation of groundwater age in the central part of the Baltic Artesian Basin based on new isotope data from Latvia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babre, Alise; Kalvans, Andis; Popovs, Konrads; Retike, Inga; Delina, Aija

    2015-04-01

    Hydrogeological conditions of the Baltic Artesian basin (BAB) have changed rapidly during the Quaternary period. Therefore this work aims to give better overview of the complexity of the groundwater recharge and discharge dynamics beyond country borders, taking into account only shared geological framework, common climate conditions and geological development. To maintain better understanding of the processes that took part in the formation of groundwater that can be observed nowadays several methods were applied placing major emphasis on the new oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope ratio results. Earlier investigations in the northern part of the basin indicated glacial melt water intrusion in the Cambrian-Vendian. Several radiocarbon and stable isotope studies in groundwater have been done at the southern part of the basin as well reporting extensive groundwater recharge during the Late Pleistocene suggesting that recharge took place under different recharge mechanisms compared with the northern part. In 2010 to 2012 an extensive field campaign was undertaken, collecting more than 300 groundwater samples for deuterium and stable oxygen, 30 for stable carbon and 10 for radiocarbon analysis mostly from central part (Latvia) of the BAB covering all the major aquifer systems where previously collected data was sparse or absent. A specific motivation for the research was to identify relict glacial meltwater in the groundwater system. The broader aim was to estimate the baseline isotopic composition of groundwater in the region. Here a new data set is presented. Na-Ca-Cl brine found at the deepest - stagnation zone and is characterized by δ18O values above -5 o and δD values approaching -40 o in respect to VSMOW. The slow exchange zone is characterized by δ18O values around -11.7 o and δD values around -84.8 o . Mean δ18O and δD value of the groundwater in the active water exchange zone is -11.0 o and 79.2 o respectively. Characteristically the groundwater in the

  20. Age estimation based on bone length using 12 regression models of left hand X-ray images for Asian children below 19 years old.

    PubMed

    Darmawan, M F; Yusuf, Suhaila M; Abdul Kadir, M R; Haron, H

    2015-03-01

    Age estimation was used in forensic anthropology to help in the identification of individual remains and living person. However, the estimation methods tend to be unique and applicable only to a certain population. This paper analyzed age estimation using twelve regression models carried out on X-ray images of the left hand taken from an Asian data set for subjects under the age of 19. All the nineteen bones of the left hand were measured using free image software and the statistical analysis were performed using SPSS. There are two methods to determine age in this study which are single bone method and all bones method. For single bone method, S-curve regression model was found to have the highest R-square value using second metacarpal for males, and third proximal phalanx for females. For age estimation using single bone, fifth metacarpal from males and fifth proximal phalanx from females can be used due to the lowest mean square error (MSE) value. To conclude, multiple linear regressions is the best techniques for age estimation in cases where all bones are available, but if not, S-curve regression can be used using single bone method. PMID:25456051

  1. Objective measurement of shade color in age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Vaidya, Sharad; Ahuja, Nitin; Bajaj, Puneet; Kapoor, Charu; Sabarwal, Robin; Rajpal, Karan

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is an important subspecialty of forensic medicine. Dental hard tissues are highly resistant to degradation and putrefaction. Enamel is translucent and varies in color from light yellow to grey white. The color of the teeth has been reported to be affected by chronological age. Enamel color may also depend on environmental factors viz. diet, occupational habits, vitamin deficiencies, fluoride level in drinking water etc., It has been found that color changes in dentin vary from white to yellow. Studies have been done to measure the dentin color for age estimation. Aim: To find a correlation between the enamel color and chronological age and secondly to estimate the age of an individual from enamel color. Material and Methods: A total of 300 patients visiting the outpatient department of oral medicine and radiology were selected. Out of those, 150 were men and 150 women. The patients were divided into V groups based on the age. A thorough case history was taken for all the patients. Maxillary Central and Lateral incisor was used for the estimation of shade. The enamel color was evaluated using a VITA classical shade guide. Statistical Analysis: Data were exported to an Excel spread sheet and statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS. Linear regression analysis was used to find correlations between age and enamel shade. Results: In the group 1 and 2 i.e. from 15 to 36 years, the shades A 2 and B 2 (reddish hue) was found to be most common. While in the group 3 and 4, shades ranged from A 3 to B 3 (brownish to yellowish hue). In the patients above 59 years i.e. group 5 the enamel shade with greyish hue was found to be most common. Conclusion: Age determination using enamel color can be tried in forensic cases in the identification of individuals with no birth records. PMID:26816455

  2. Estimation of age from development and eruption of teeth

    PubMed Central

    Manjunatha, B. S.; Soni, Nishit K.

    2014-01-01

    The developing dentition is used to assess maturity and estimate the age in many disciplines including anthropology, archeology, forensic science, pediatric dentistry and orthodontics. There is evidence that dental development is less effected than skeletal development by malnutrition and hormonal disorders. There are two methods of dental age assessment, radiographically and by clinically visualization of eruption of teeth. The clinical method to assess dental age is based on the emergence of teeth in the mouth. This method is more suitable since it does not require any special equipment, expertise and is more economical. Tooth formation is the best choice for estimating the age as variations are less as compared to other development factors. Eruption of teeth is one of the changes observed easily among the various dynamic changes that occur from the formation of teeth to the final shedding of teeth. The times of eruption of teeth are fairly constant and this can be made use of in ascertaining the average age of eruption of the tooth. Assessment of age of an individual by examination of teeth is one of the accepted methods of age determination. PMID:25125911

  3. Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.

    1999-01-01

    The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

  4. Estimating alluvial fan surface ages using Landsat 8 multispectral imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.

    2015-04-01

    Accurate exposure age models are now essential for geomorphological and stratigraphic field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide or luminescence approaches. However, these techniques cannot be deployed in situ in the field, meaning other methods are needed to produce a preliminary age model, map depositional surfaces of different ages, and select sampling sites for the types of laboratory analyses outlined above. With the widespread availability of high-resolution multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely sensed data to discriminate depositional surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. These surfaces have been mapped in detail in the field, have similar granitic compositions, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka, measured using a high density of 10-Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. We identify a clear age signal recorded in the spectral properties of these surfaces. With increasing exposure age, there is a predictable redshift effect in the reflectance of the surfaces across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratio of red/blue wavelengths, produce sensitive power law relationships with exposure age for at least 125 ka, meaning Landsat 8 imagery can be used to estimate surface exposure age remotely, at least in this calibrated dryland location. The ability to remotely sense exposure age has useful implications for field mapping, selecting suitable sampling sites for laboratory-based exposure age techniques, and correlating existing age constraints to previously un-sampled surfaces. We present the uncertainties associated with this spectral approach to exposure dating, evaluate its likely physical origins, and discuss its applicability

  5. Digital approach for measuring dentin translucency in forensic age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Simranjit; Venkatapathy, Ramesh; Balamurali, PD; Charles, NSC; Suganya, R

    2013-01-01

    Background: Dentin translucency is best suited for age estimation not only in terms of accuracy but also in terms of simplicity. Conventionally, translucency has been measured using calipers. Computer-based methods have been proposed for the same, although these required the use of custom-built software programs. Objectives: The objectives of the study were to use a simple digital method to measure dentinal translucency on sectioned teeth and to compare digital measurements to conventionally obtained translucency measurements. Materials and Methods: Fifty extracted permanent teeth were collected and were sectioned to 250 μm. Translucency measurements were obtained using the digital method and compared with those obtained using a caliper. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both methods (P < 0.001), and marginally higher for the conventional approach (r = 0.4671). Application of derived linear regression equations on an independent sample (n = 10) revealed a similar ability of both the methods to assess age to within ±5 years of the actual age. Conclusion: The translucency measurements obtained by the two methods were very similar, with no clear superiority of one method over the other. Hence, further studies on a large scale are warranted to determine which method is more reliable to estimate the age. PMID:23960415

  6. Evolution on a volcanic conveyor belt: using phylogeographic reconstructions and K-Ar-based ages of the Hawaiian Islands to estimate molecular evolutionary rates.

    PubMed

    Fleischer, R C; McIntosh, C E; Tarr, C L

    1998-04-01

    The Hawaiian Islands form as the Pacific Plate moves over a 'hot spot' in the earth's mantle where magma extrudes through the crust to build huge shield volcanos. The islands subside and erode as the plate carries them to the north-west, eventually to become coral atolls and seamounts. Thus islands are ordered linearly by age, with the oldest islands in the north-west (e.g. Kauai at 5.1 Ma) and the youngest in the south-east (e.g. Hawaii at 0.43 Ma). K-Ar estimates of the date of an island's formation provide a maximum age for the taxa inhabiting the island. These ages can be used to calibrate rates of molecular change under the following assumptions: (i) K-Ar dates are accurate; (ii) tree topologies show that derivation of taxa parallels the timing of island formation; (iii) populations do not colonize long after island emergence; (iv) the coalescent point for sister taxa does not greatly predate the formation of the colonized younger island; (v) saturation effects and (vi) among-lineage rate variation are minimal or correctable; and (vii) unbiased standard errors of distances and regressions can be estimated from multiple pairwise comparisons. We use the approach to obtain overall corrected rate calibrations for: (i) part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in Hawaiian drepanidines (0.016 sequence divergence/Myr); (ii) the Yp1 gene in Hawaiian Drosophila (0.019/Myr Kambysellis et al. 1995); and (iii) parts of the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA and tRNAval in Laupala crickets (0.024-0.102/Myr, Shaw 1996). We discuss the reliability of the estimates given the assumptions (i-vii) above and contrast the results with previous calibrations of Adh in Hawaiian Drosophila and chloroplast DNA in lobeliods. PMID:9628004

  7. Evolution on a volcanic conveyor belt: using phylogeographic reconstructions and K-Ar-based ages of the Hawaiian Islands to estimate molecular evolutionary rates.

    PubMed

    Fleischer, R C; McIntosh, C E; Tarr, C L

    1998-04-01

    The Hawaiian Islands form as the Pacific Plate moves over a 'hot spot' in the earth's mantle where magma extrudes through the crust to build huge shield volcanos. The islands subside and erode as the plate carries them to the north-west, eventually to become coral atolls and seamounts. Thus islands are ordered linearly by age, with the oldest islands in the north-west (e.g. Kauai at 5.1 Ma) and the youngest in the south-east (e.g. Hawaii at 0.43 Ma). K-Ar estimates of the date of an island's formation provide a maximum age for the taxa inhabiting the island. These ages can be used to calibrate rates of molecular change under the following assumptions: (i) K-Ar dates are accurate; (ii) tree topologies show that derivation of taxa parallels the timing of island formation; (iii) populations do not colonize long after island emergence; (iv) the coalescent point for sister taxa does not greatly predate the formation of the colonized younger island; (v) saturation effects and (vi) among-lineage rate variation are minimal or correctable; and (vii) unbiased standard errors of distances and regressions can be estimated from multiple pairwise comparisons. We use the approach to obtain overall corrected rate calibrations for: (i) part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in Hawaiian drepanidines (0.016 sequence divergence/Myr); (ii) the Yp1 gene in Hawaiian Drosophila (0.019/Myr Kambysellis et al. 1995); and (iii) parts of the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA and tRNAval in Laupala crickets (0.024-0.102/Myr, Shaw 1996). We discuss the reliability of the estimates given the assumptions (i-vii) above and contrast the results with previous calibrations of Adh in Hawaiian Drosophila and chloroplast DNA in lobeliods.

  8. Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites: National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2006-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shapiro, Stephanie D.; Plummer, L. Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Widman, Peggy K.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Wayland, Julian E.; Runkle, Donna L.

    2012-01-01

    Piston-flow age dates were interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers from 812 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites from 27 Study Units across the United States. The tracers of interest include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis were collected from 2006 to 2010 from groundwater wells in NAWQA studies, including: * Land-Use Studies (LUS, shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, located in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings), * Major-Aquifer Studies (MAS, wells, usually domestic supply wells, located in principal aquifers and representing the shallow drinking water supply), * Flow System Studies (FSS, networks of clustered wells located along a flowpath extending from a recharge zone to a discharge zone, preferably a shallow stream) associated with Land-Use Studies, and * Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) also associated with Land-Use Studies. Tracer data were evaluated using documented methods and are presented as aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF6), and tracer-based piston-flow ages. Selected ancillary data, such as redox data, well-construction data, and major dissolved-gas (N2, O2, Ar, CH4, and CO2) data, also are presented. Recharge temperature was inferred using climate data (approximated by mean annual air temperature plus 1°C [MAAT +1°C]) as well as major dissolved-gas data (N2-Ar-based) where available. The N2-Ar-based temperatures showed significantly more variation than the climate-based data, as well as the effects of denitrification and degassing resulting from reducing conditions. The N2-Ar-based temperatures were colder than the climate-based temperatures in networks where recharge was limited to the winter months when evapotranspiration was reduced. The tracer-based piston-flow ages

  9. A New Approach to Estimate the Age of the Earth and the Age of the Universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben Salem, Kamel

    2011-01-01

    In a previous article, we proposed estimations for the age of the Universe and for the date of stabilization of its general structure on the basis of a given age of the Earth equal to 4.6 billion years. In the present article, we propose a new approach to estimate more accurately and at the same time, the age of the Earth and that of the Universe, starting from verse 4 of Sura 70 of the Qur'an. The procedure we followed and which is detailed in this article, should in our view, contribute to enlighten the debate on the question. We must add that our approach can in no case be considered as based on "concordism" or conjecture. Indeed, it rests on rigorous mathematical computations.

  10. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    PubMed

    Li, Guoqi; Zhao, Daxuan; Xu, Yi; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables. PMID:26382594

  11. Impairment of age estimation from faces in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Moyse, Evelyne; Bastin, Christine; Salmon, Eric; Brédart, Serge

    2015-01-01

    A prerequisite for any function in social cognition is the perception and processing of social cues. Age estimation is a skill that is used in everyday life and is fundamental in social interactions. This study evaluated whether facial age estimation is impaired in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). The current age of faces is known to have an impact on age estimation, and therefore stimuli belonging to different age groups (young, middle-aged, and older adults' faces) were used. As expected, an impairment of age estimation from faces was observed in mild to moderate AD patients. However, the profile of impairment depended on the age of faces and stage of the disease. Mild AD patients presented difficulties mainly in assessing the age of middle-aged adults. In moderate disease stage, these difficulties also affected the age estimation of young adult faces. Interestingly, AD patients remained relatively good at estimating the age of older adults' faces, compared to healthy controls. PMID:25589725

  12. Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

  13. Accelerated aging test on LEDs life estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Yi; Zhang, Shu-sheng; Du, Jiang-qi

    2011-11-01

    Light-emitting diodes(LEDs) have become very attractive in different application field such as Solid State Lighting, automotive and street lights, due to their long operative lifetime, lower energy consumption etc. This paper mainly introduces the accelerated aging test, we focus our attention on the study of a life model for LEDs by relating the time to failure with the supplying condition. The constant accelerated aging experiments were firstly performed on LED samples. Process the experiment data by exploiting the degradation of LED optical power formula and degradation coefficient. Finally, the average lifetime of the samples under normal conditions was calculated via using numerical analytical method. According to data, analysis the test result and the failure mechanism of LED, provide the technical basis to improve product design and quality assurance.

  14. Estimating daily salt intake based on 24 h urinary sodium excretion in adults aged 18–69 years in Shandong, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ji-yu; Yan, Liu-xia; Tang, Jun-li; Ma, Ji-xiang; Guo, Xiao-lei; Zhao, Wen-hua; Zhang, Xiao-fei; Li, Jian-hong; Chu, Jie; Bi, Zhen-qiang

    2014-01-01

    Objective 24 h urinary sodium extretion was used to estimate the daily salt intake of shandong residents aged from 18 to 69 years in China. Setting 20 selected counties/districts in Shandong stratified by geographic region (Eastern, Central Southern and North Western) and residence type (urban vs rural). Participants Among 2184 randomly selected adults, 2061 provided usable 24 h urine samples. Urine volume <500 mL or male creatinine <3.81 (female creatinine <4.57) are not included in the analysis. Results The mean sodium level excreted over 24 h was 237.61 mmol (95% CI 224.77 to 250.44) mmol. Overall, the estimated mean salt intake was 13.90 g/day (95% CI 13.15 to 14.65). The mean salt intake among rural residents was higher than that among urban residents (14.00 vs 13.68 g; p<0.01). Salt intake in men was higher than that in women (14.40 vs 13.37 g; p<0.01). Approximately 96% of the survey participants had a dietary salt intake of ≥6 g/day. Conclusions The salt intake in Shandong is alarmingly higher than the current recommended amount (6 g/day). Thus, effective interventions to reduce salt intake levels to combat the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases need to be developed and implemented. PMID:25037642

  15. Age estimations of wild pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus, Forbes & Richardson 1905) based on pectoral fin spines, otoliths and bomb radiocarbon: inferences on recruitment in the dam-fragmented Missouri River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Braaten, P. J.; Campana, S. E.; Fuller, D. B.; Lott, R. D.; Bruch, R. M.; Jordan, G. R.

    2015-01-01

    An extant stock of wild pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus persists in the fragmented upper Missouri River basin of Montana and North Dakota. Although successful spawning and hatch of embryos has been verified, long-term catch records suggest that recruitment has not occurred for several decades as the extant stock lacks juvenile size classes and is comprised exclusively of large, presumably old individuals. Ages of 11 deceased (death years 1997–2007) wild S. albus (136–166 cm fork length) were estimated based on pectoral fin spines, sagittal otoliths and bomb radiocarbon (14C) assays of otoliths to test the hypothesis that members of this stock are old and to provide inferences on recruitment years that produced the extant stock. Age estimations based on counts of presumed annuli were about 2 years greater for otoliths (mean = 51 years, range = 43–57 years) than spines (mean = 49 years, range = 37–59 years). Based on 14C assays, confirmed birth years for all individuals occurred prior to 1957, thus establishing known longevity of at least 50 years. Estimated age based on presumed otolith annuli for one S. albus was validated to at least age 49. Although 14C assays confirmed pre-1957 birth years for all S. albus, only 56% of estimated ages from spines and 91% of estimated ages from otoliths depicted pre-1957 birth years. Both ageing structures were subject to under-ageing error (up to 15 years). Lack of or severe curtailment of S. albus recruitment in the upper Missouri River basin since the mid-1950s closely parallels the 1953–1957 timeframe when a mainstem reservoir was constructed and started to fill. This reservoir may function as a system-wide stressor to diminish recruitment success of S. albus in the upper Missouri River basin.

  16. Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

    2012-03-01

    The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of

  17. Using the acetabulum to estimate age at death of adult males.

    PubMed

    Rissech, Carme; Estabrook, George F; Cunha, Eugenia; Malgosa, Assumpció

    2006-03-01

    The acetabular region is often present and adequately preserved in adult human skeletal remains. Close morphological examination of the 242 left male os coxae from the identified collection of Coimbra (Portugal) has enabled the recognition of seven variables that can be used to estimate age at death. This paper describes these variables and argues their appropriateness by analyzing the correlation between these criteria and the age, the intra- and interobserver consistence, and the accuracy in age prediction using Bayesian inference to estimate age of identified specimens. Results show significant close correlation between the acetabular criteria and age, nonsignificant differences in intra- and interobserver test, and 89% accuracy in Bayes prediction. Obtained estimated age of the specimens had similar accuracy in all ages. These results indicate that these seven variables, based on the acetabular area, are potentially useful to estimate age at death for adult specimens.

  18. The Technological Adolescent Age Transition: A Boundary to Estimate the Last Factor of the Drake Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemarchand, Guillermo A.

    2004-06-01

    Based on the study of several long-term societal indicators we estimate the phase transition between the ``Technological Adolescent Age'' (TAA) and the ``Technological Mature Age'' (TMA). Assuming the ``Principle of Mediocrity'' and using the Drake Equation we estimate a lower threshold for the number of technological civilizations in the galaxy.

  19. Pre- and postpandemic estimates of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) seroprotection to inform surveillance-based incidence, by age, during the 2013-2014 epidemic in Canada.

    PubMed

    Skowronski, Danuta M; Chambers, Catharine; Sabaiduc, Suzana; Janjua, Naveed Z; Li, Guiyun; Petric, Martin; Krajden, Mel; Purych, Dale; Li, Yan; De Serres, Gaston

    2015-01-01

    To understand the epidemic resurgence of influenza due to the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) strain (A[H1N1]pdm09) during the 2013-2014 influenza season, we compared age-related cross-sectional estimates of seroprotection before the pandemic (during 2009) and after the pandemic (during 2010 and 2013) to subsequent surveillance-based, laboratory-confirmed incidence of influenza due to A(H1N1)pdm09 in British Columbia, Canada. Prepandemic seroprotection was negligible except for very old adults (defined as adults aged ≥ 80 years), among whom 80% had seroprotection. Conversely, postpandemic seroprotection followed a U-shaped distribution, with detection in approximately 35%-45% of working-aged adults but in ≥ 70% of very old adults and young children, excluding children aged <5 years in 2013, among whom seroprotection again decreased to <20%. The incidence was 5-fold higher during 2013-2014, compared with 2010-2011, and was highest among children aged <5 years and working-aged adults, reflecting a mirror image of the age-based seroprotection data.

  20. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    PubMed

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  1. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    PubMed

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

  2. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas

    PubMed Central

    Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

  3. Dental age estimation in Egyptian children, comparison between two methods.

    PubMed

    El-Bakary, Amal A; Hammad, Shaza M; Mohammed, Fatma

    2010-10-01

    The need to estimate age of living individuals is becoming increasingly more important in both forensic science and clinical dentistry. The study of the morphological parameters of teeth on dental radiographs of adult humans is more reliable than most other methods for age estimation. Willems and Cameriere methods are newly presented methods. The aim of this work was to evaluate the applicability of using these methods for Egyptian children. Digitalized panoramas taken from 286 Egyptian children (134 boys, 152 girls) with age range from 5 to 16 years were analyzed. The seven left permanent mandibular teeth were evaluated using the two methods. The results of this research showed that dental age estimated by both methods was significantly correlated to real age. However, Willems method was slightly more accurate (98.62%) compared to Cameriere method (98.02%). Therefore, both methods can be recommended for practical application in clinical dentistry and forensic procedures on the Egyptian population.

  4. Age estimation by measurements of developing teeth: accuracy of Cameriere's method on a Brazilian sample.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Mário Marques; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; de Braganca, Daniel Pereira Parreiras; de Lima, Silas Henrique Rabelo; Francesquini Junior, Luiz; Daruge Junior, Eduardo

    2011-11-01

    Developing teeth are commonly the criteria used for age estimation in children and young adults. The method developed by Cameriere et al. (Int J Legal Med 2006;120:49-52) is based on measures of teeth with open apex, and application of a formula, to estimate chronological age of children. The present study evaluated a sample of panoramic radiographs from Brazilian children from 5 to 15 years of age, to evaluate the accuracy of the method proposed by Cameriere et al. The results has proven the system reliable for age estimation, with a median residual error of -0.014 years between chronological and estimated ages (p = 0.603). There was a slight tendency to overestimate the ages of 5-10 years and underestimate the ages of 11-15 years.

  5. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    SciTech Connect

    Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl; Barstow, Del R; Boehnen, Chris Bensing

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

  6. Heterogeneous Rates of Molecular Evolution and Diversification Could Explain the Triassic Age Estimate for Angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Crane, Peter; Donoghue, Michael J

    2015-09-01

    Dating analyses based on molecular data imply that crown angiosperms existed in the Triassic, long before their undisputed appearance in the fossil record in the Early Cretaceous. Following a re-analysis of the age of angiosperms using updated sequences and fossil calibrations, we use a series of simulations to explore the possibility that the older age estimates are a consequence of (i) major shifts in the rate of sequence evolution near the base of the angiosperms and/or (ii) the representative taxon sampling strategy employed in such studies. We show that both of these factors do tend to yield substantially older age estimates. These analyses do not prove that younger age estimates based on the fossil record are correct, but they do suggest caution in accepting the older age estimates obtained using current relaxed-clock methods. Although we have focused here on the angiosperms, we suspect that these results will shed light on dating discrepancies in other major clades.

  7. Ages estimated from a diffusion equation model for scarp degradation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Watson, K.E.N.

    1983-01-01

    The diffusion equation derived from the continuity equation for hillslopes is applied to scarp erosion in unconsolidated materials. Solutions to this equation allow direct calculation of the product of the rate coefficient and the age of the scarp from measurements of scarp morphology. Where the rate coefficient can be estimated or can be derived from scarps of known age, this method allows direct calculation of unknown ages of scarps.

  8. Estimation of gestational age from gall-bladder length.

    PubMed

    Udaykumar, K; Udaykumar, Padmaja; Nagesh, K R

    2016-01-01

    Establishing a precise duration of gestation is vital in situations such as infanticide and criminal abortions. The present study attempted to estimate the gestational age of the foetus from gall-bladder length. Foetuses of various gestational age groups were dissected, and the length of the gall bladder was measured. The results were analysed, and a substantial degree of correlation was statistically confirmed. This novel method is helpful when the foetus is fragmented, putrefied or eviscerated, where this method can be used as an additional parameter to improve the accuracy of foetal age estimation. PMID:25990829

  9. Thermoluminescence and new 14C age estimates for late quaternary loesses in southwestern Nebraska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Maat, P.B.; Johnson, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    Loess of late Quaternary age mantles most of Nebraska south of the Platte River Valley. At least five late Quaternary loesses are recognized: from oldest to youngest, one or more undifferentiated pre-lllinoian loesses, the Loveland Loess, the Gilman Canyon Loess, which exhibits a well developed soil and rests unconformably on the Sangamon soil, the Peoria Loess capped by the Brady soil, and the Bignell Loess, which is distributed discontinuously. Previous research shows that the Loveland Loess is Illinoian. the Gilman Canyon Loess and Peoria Loess are Wisconsin, and the Bignell Loess is Holocene. We present here the first thermoluminescence (TL) age estimates and new C ages for these late Quaternary loesses at two key sections in southwestern Nebraska, the Eustis ash pit and the Bignell Hill road cut. TL age estimates from all samples collected from Eustis ash pit and Bignell Hill were internally consistent. TL and C age estimates from these two sections generally agree and support previous age determinations. The TL age estimate on Loveland Loess indicates deposition at 163 ka. TL and radiocarbon age estimates indicate that Oilman Canyon Loess, believed to be deposited during the Farmdale interstade, first began to accumulate at about 40 ka: the lower part of the Gilman Canyon Loess is 36 ka at Eustis and the middle of the unit is 30 ka at Bignell Hill. The lower and upper parts of the Peoria Loess give age estimates of 24 ka and 17 ka, respectively. TL age estimates for deposition of the Bignell Loess are 9 ka near the base, in agreement with radiocarbon age estimates, and 6 ka immediately below the modern soil, substantiating its Holocene age. Comparisons of TL age estimates with ??18O and insolation curves which show loess deposition during interglacial and interstadial as well as glacial periods, indicate that loess deposition on the Great Plains can occur under a variety of climatic conditions.

  10. Accuracy of methods of age estimation in predicting dental age of preadolescents in South Indian children.

    PubMed

    Balla, Sudheer B; Venkat Baghirath, P; Hari Vinay, B; Vijay Kumar, J; Babu, D B Gandhi

    2016-10-01

    Age estimation in forensic context is of prime importance for criminal, civil and administrative laws. The objective of this study is to test the accuracy of 3 methods of age estimation in South Indian children (preadolescents) aged between 7 and 15 years. It is a retrospective study of orthopantamograms (OPGs) of 150 children among which 79 were boys and 71 were girls. Cameriere's, Willems and Acharya's age estimation methods were used to predict chronological age. Paired t-test was used to compare all data and relationships between continuous variables were examined using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The Cameriere's method Underestimated the real age by -0.62 years in boys and -0.54 years in girls. Both Willems and Acharya's methods overestimated age in both sexes by 0.41, 0.18 years and 0.41, 0.47 years respectively.

  11. Accuracy of methods of age estimation in predicting dental age of preadolescents in South Indian children.

    PubMed

    Balla, Sudheer B; Venkat Baghirath, P; Hari Vinay, B; Vijay Kumar, J; Babu, D B Gandhi

    2016-10-01

    Age estimation in forensic context is of prime importance for criminal, civil and administrative laws. The objective of this study is to test the accuracy of 3 methods of age estimation in South Indian children (preadolescents) aged between 7 and 15 years. It is a retrospective study of orthopantamograms (OPGs) of 150 children among which 79 were boys and 71 were girls. Cameriere's, Willems and Acharya's age estimation methods were used to predict chronological age. Paired t-test was used to compare all data and relationships between continuous variables were examined using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The Cameriere's method Underestimated the real age by -0.62 years in boys and -0.54 years in girls. Both Willems and Acharya's methods overestimated age in both sexes by 0.41, 0.18 years and 0.41, 0.47 years respectively. PMID:27428567

  12. Estimation of Age Using Alveolar Bone Loss: Forensic and Anthropological Applications.

    PubMed

    Ruquet, Michel; Saliba-Serre, Bérengère; Tardivo, Delphine; Foti, Bruno

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to utilize a new odontological methodological approach based on radiographic for age estimation. The study was comprised of 397 participants aged between 9 and 87 years. A clinical examination and a radiographic assessment of alveolar bone loss were performed. Direct measures of alveolar bone level were recorded using CT scans. A medical examination report was attached to the investigation file. Because of the link between alveolar bone loss and age, a model was proposed to enable simple, reliable, and quick age estimation. This work added new arguments for age estimation. This study aimed to develop a simple, standardized, and reproducible technique for age estimation of adults of actual populations in forensic medicine and ancient populations in funeral anthropology.

  13. Cognitive estimation in aged patients with major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Barabassy, Agota; Beinhoff, Ulrike; Riepe, Matthias W

    2010-03-30

    In everyday life, we often estimate rather than know. It was the goal of this study to assess the effect of depressed mood on cognitive estimation in old age. Cognitive estimation was performed in 44 subjects with major depressive disorder (MDD; DSM-IV) and 48 age-matched healthy subjects (HS). Severity of depressive symptoms was rated with the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS, mean=18.6+/-S.D. 4.85). Estimation tasks comprised the dimensions length (coin diameter), weight (pile of paper), quantity (number of marbles in a glass jar), and time (estimation of time it takes for a marble to roll down a marble track both before and after having observed it). Other than the procedure followed in previous tests on cognitive estimation, the tasks were performed by observing objects rather than pictures thereof. MDD patients overestimated time (before and after observation) and underestimated quantity. Cognitive estimation was not correlated to measures of frontal functioning or semantic knowledge. We conclude that MDD patients in old age are impaired to some extent in cognitive estimation and in the ability to correct themselves, deficits that are likely to affect the performance of everyday activities. PMID:20064666

  14. New Method of Age Estimation from Maxillary Sutures Closure in a Thai Population.

    PubMed

    Sinthubua, A; Theera-Umpon, N; Auephanwiriyakul, S; Ruengdit, S; Das, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation is one of the major components of forensic identification. Cranial suture closure has long been used as indicator for age estimation. Maxillary sutures have been less studied for estimation of age at death because they vary in their timing of closure with age. The purpose of this study was to estimate age by examining 190 Thai skulls with age ranging between 15-93 years from Forensic Osteology Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, and Chiang Mai University. Four parts of maxillary suture (incisive, anterior, transverse, and posterior sutures) were investigated the suture obliteration of each suture by computerizing from photograph. The suture were measured by pixel counting.The prediction model which based on the support vector machine (SVM) for regression or support vector regression (SVR) was utilized for data analysis. The results showed high correlation (R2 = 0.9086) between the predicted age and actual age. Plot between actual age group and predicted age in seven groups also revealed high correlation (R2 = 0.9434). These can be implied that we are able to use this SVR model to predict age at death using maxillary suture information.The interesting issue is to further apply this model in more cases to ensure the generalization of the finding. This study is the first attempt to estimate age at death using a new method based on novel analysis which considers a characteristic of relationship between maxillary suture closures with age that are not in linear form. The present study may contribute as a basis knowledge and method for further study of age estimation in archaeological and forensic anthropological contexts, especially when only skull or base of skull are found. PMID:27212570

  15. Estimation and evidence in forensic anthropology: age-at-death.

    PubMed

    Konigsberg, Lyle W; Herrmann, Nicholas P; Wescott, Daniel J; Kimmerle, Erin H

    2008-05-01

    A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage."Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.

  16. Serum 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin Levels and Their Association With Age, Body Mass Index, Smoking, Military Record-based Variables, and Estimated Exposure to Agent Orange in Korean Vietnam Veterans

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Sang-Wook; Ohrr, Heechoul; Won, Jong-Uk; Song, Jae-Seok

    2013-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the levels of serum 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and evaluate their association with age, body mass index, smoking, military record-based variables, and estimated exposure to Agent Orange in Korean Vietnam veterans. Methods Serum levels of TCDD were analyzed in 102 Vietnam veterans. Information on age, body mass index, and smoking status were obtained from a self-reported questionnaire. The perceived exposure was assessed by a 6-item questionnaire. Two proximity-based exposures were constructed by division/brigade level and battalion/company level unit information using the Stellman exposure opportunity index model. Results The mean and median of serum TCDD levels was 1.2 parts per trillion (ppt) and 0.9 ppt, respectively. Only 2 Vietnam veterans had elevated levels of TCDD (>10 ppt). The levels of TCDD did not tend to increase with the likelihood of exposure to Agent Orange, as estimated from either proximity-based exposure or perceived self-reported exposure. The serum TCDD levels were not significantly different according to military unit, year of first deployment, duration of deployment, military rank, age, body mass index, and smoking status. Conclusions The average serum TCDD levels in the Korean Vietnam veterans were lower than those reported for other occupationally or environmentally exposed groups and US Vietnam veterans, and their use as an objective marker of Agent Orange exposure may have some limitations. The unit of deployment, duration of deployment, year of first deployment, military rank, perceived self-reported exposure, and proximity-based exposure to Agent Orange were not associated with TCDD levels in Korean Vietnam veterans. Age, body mass index and smoking also were not associated with TCDD levels. PMID:24137525

  17. Aging, Transition, and Estimating the Global Burden of Disease

    PubMed Central

    Seligman, Benjamin J.; Cullen, Mark R.; Horwitz, Ralph I.

    2011-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reports are an important tool for global health policy makers, however the accuracy of estimates for countries undergoing an epidemiologic transition is unclear. We attempted to validate the life table model used to generate estimates for all-cause mortality in developing countries. Methods and Results Data were obtained for males and females from the Human Mortality Database for all countries with available data every ten years from 1900 to 2000. These provided inputs for the GBD life table model and served as comparison observed data. Above age sixty model estimates of survival for both sexes differed substantially from those observed. Prior to the year 1960 for males and 1930 for females, estimated survival tended to be greater than observed; following 1960 for both males and females estimated survival tended to be less than observed. Viewing observed and estimated survival separately, observed survival past sixty increased over the years considered. For males, the increase was from a mean (sd) probability of 0.22 (0.06) to 0.46 (0.1). For females, the increase was from 0.26 (0.06) to 0.65 (0.08). By contrast, estimated survival past sixty decreased over the same period. Among males, estimated survival probability declined from 0.54 (0.2) to 0.09 (0.06). Among females, the decline was from 0.36 (0.12) to 0.15 (0.08). Conclusions These results show that the GBD mortality model did not accurately estimate survival at older ages as developed countries transitioned in the twentieth century and may be similarly flawed in developing countries now undergoing transition. Estimates of the size of older-age populations and their attributable disease burden should be reconsidered. PMID:21629652

  18. Statistical estimation of mineral age by K-Ar method

    SciTech Connect

    Vistelius, A.B.; Drubetzkoy, E.R.; Faas, A.V. )

    1989-11-01

    Statistical estimation of age of {sup 40}Ar/{sup 40}K ratios may be considered a result of convolution of uniform and normal distributions with different weights for different minerals. Data from Gul'shad Massif (Nearbalkhash, Kazakhstan, USSR) indicate that {sup 40}Ar/{sup 40}K ratios reflecting the intensity of geochemical processes can be resolved using convolutions. Loss of {sup 40}Ar in biotites is shown whereas hornblende retained the original content of {sup 40}Ar throughout the geological history of the massif. Results demonstrate that different estimation methods must be used for different minerals and different rocks when radiometric ages are employed for dating.

  19. Age estimation charts for a modern Australian population.

    PubMed

    Blenkin, Matthew; Taylor, Jane

    2012-09-10

    Calculation of the biological age of an individual has application in many fields of dentistry. It can be used to determine the appropriate timing of interventionist treatment for example in orthodontics; to analyse the developmental stage of an individual relative to the general population in the management of genetic or congenital conditions which disturb growth; and to estimate the age of a living or deceased person for forensic purposes. Many of the techniques used to estimate age can be quite time consuming to complete. This time component is a major disadvantage in a forensic context when age estimations in mass disasters are required as part of the post-mortem examination process. Consequently, forensic practitioners have tended to use the simpler but less reliable atlas style techniques of Schour and Massler and Ubelaker in these situations. For mass disaster situations, such as the recent Victorian Bushfires, it would be advantageous to have access to Australian specific data in the convenient Schour and Massler format. This project reinterpreted the Australian data previously collected by Blenkin and other relevant studies and applied it to a schematic similar to that of Ubelaker to develop a reliable, convenient and contemporary reference for use in age estimation.

  20. A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.

    2015-08-01

    Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.

  1. Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

  2. A new method to estimate adult age-at-death using the acetabulum.

    PubMed

    Calce, Stephanie E

    2012-05-01

    Rissech et al. (J Forensic Sci 51 (2006) 213-229) described a method to estimate age-at-death of adult males using seven traits of the fused acetabulum. This study simplifies Rissech et al.'s technique and extends its application to adult females. Rissech et al.'s original scoring method was applied to a sample of 100 known-aged adults, three variables were selected based on stepwise multiple regression, and ages were collapsed into three broad ranges: young adult (17-39 years), middle adult (40-64 years), and old adult (65+ years). The revised method was applied to 249 new known-aged individuals from two other samples. To minimize observer bias, highlight the most critical traits, and encompass more age-related variation, unique digital renderings accompany morphological descriptions of age categories instead of photos. Three statistically significant characteristics highly correlated with age (P < 0.05) are capable of estimating age-at-death with 81% accuracy, both sexes combined. For misidentified individuals the tendency was to underestimate age. Results of both intraobserver error testing and inter-rater reliability demonstrated a moderate to substantial agreement in scoring between observers. When estimating the degree of development of features osteophyte development of the acetabular rim was the most inconsistent between observers. The revised acetabular method shows promise in estimating age for adults, particularly for those over the age of 65 years.

  3. Evaluation of age estimation technique: testing traits of the acetabulum to estimate age at death in adult males.

    PubMed

    Calce, Stephanie E; Rogers, Tracy L

    2011-03-01

    This study evaluates the accuracy and precision of a skeletal age estimation method, using the acetabulum of 100 male ossa coxae from the Grant Collection (GRO) at the University of Toronto, Canada. Age at death was obtained using Bayesian inference and a computational application (IDADE2) that requires a reference population, close in geographic and temporal distribution to the target case, to calibrate age ranges from scores generated by the technique. The inaccuracy of this method is 8 years. The direction of bias indicates the acetabulum technique tends to underestimate age. The categories 46-65 and 76-90 years exhibit the smallest inaccuracy (0.2), suggesting that this method may be appropriate for individuals over 40 years. Eighty-three percent of age estimates were ±12 years of known age; 79% were ±10 years of known age; and 62% were ±5 years of known age. Identifying a suitable reference population is the most significant limitation of this technique for forensic applications.

  4. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data.

    PubMed

    Udevitz, Mark S; Gogan, Peter J P

    2012-04-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  5. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  6. Cementum annulations, age estimation, and demographic dynamics in Mid-Holocene foragers of North India.

    PubMed

    Robbins Schug, G; Brandt, E T; Lukacs, J R

    2012-04-01

    One of the principal problems facing palaeodemography is age estimation in adult skeletons and the centrist tendency that affects many age estimation methods by artificially increasing the proportion of individuals in the 30-45-year age category. Several recent publications have indicated that cementum annulations are significantly correlated with known age of extraction or death. This study addresses the question of how demographic dynamics are altered for an archaeological sample when cementum-based age estimates are used as opposed to those obtained via conventional macroscopic methods. Age pyramids were constructed and demographic profiles were compared for the early Holocene skeletal population from Damdama (India). The results demonstrate that the use of cementum annulations for age estimation in only a subset of the skeletal sample has a significant impact on the demographic profile with regard to specific parameters such as mean age at death and life expectancy at birth. This confirms the importance of using cementum annulations to refine age estimates in archaeological samples, which, when combined with a fertility-centred approach to demography, can provide new insights into population dynamics in the past. PMID:22475664

  7. How old am I? Age estimation in living adults: a case report.

    PubMed

    Cattaneo, C; De Angelis, D; Ruspa, M; Gibelli, D; Cameriere, R; Grandi, M

    2008-12-01

    Age estimation is a common task in forensic medicine. Odontologists are frequently involved in the age assessment of human remains or living juveniles. The need to estimate the age of living individuals is becoming more frequent, because of the increasing number of immigrants (illegal or otherwise) without acceptable identification documents and with missing or uncertain birth dates. Whereas age estimation in subadults is usually performed by methods based on the physiological growth of bones and teeth, in the case of living adults age determination is more difficult, because body maturation has come to an end and the most commonly used procedures in forensics on human remains are too invasive for the living individual. The following case report aims at highlighting the difficulties of performing age estimation in the living adult and the importance of a multidisciplinary approach including forensic odontology: a middle-aged woman from Ethiopia who was supposed to be 62 years old (according to one set of documents), was removed from employment lists as she had reached the retirement age for Italy. However another set of documents indicated a younger age (46 years). Hormonal dosage of E2 (17-β estradiol) and FSH (Follicle Stimulating Hormone) showed an age close to the begininng of menopause. An experimental dental method, based on the decrease of canine pulp chamber with age, was performed in order to obtain more information: the result was an estimation of a 47-57 age range. Combined results suggested that it was more likely that the actual age of the woman was closer to 46 than to 62.

  8. Dental age estimation using Willems method: A digital orthopantomographic study

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Krishnamraju, P. V.; Prasanth, P. S.; Sanghvi, Praveen; Lata Reddy, M. Asha; Jyotsna, S.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, age estimation has become increasingly important in living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as a birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army, and retirement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of left seven mandibular teeth for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population using Willems method. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomogram of 332 subjects (166 males, 166 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular teeth (from central incisor to the second molar on left quadrant) development was undertaken and DA was assessed using Willems method. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males (r = 0.71 and females (r = 0.88). The overall mean difference between the estimated DA and CA for males was 0.69 ± 2.14 years (P < 0.001) while for females, it was 0.08 ± 1.34 years (P > 0.05). Willems method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.69 years and females by 0.08 years and showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. The mean difference between DA and CA according to Willems method was 0.39 years and is statistically significant (P < 0.05). Conclusion: This study showed significant relation between DA and CA. Thus, digital radiographic assessment of mandibular teeth development can be used to generate mean DA using Willems method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. PMID:25191076

  9. Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

  10. Age estimation in archaeological skeletal remains: evaluation of four non-destructive age calculation methods.

    PubMed

    Vodanović, M; Dumančić, J; Galić, I; Savić Pavičin, I; Petrovečki, M; Cameriere, R; Brkić, H

    2011-12-01

    Estimation of age at death is an essential part of reconstructing information from skeletal material. The aim of the investigation was to reconstruct the chronological age of an archaeological sample from Croatia using cranial skeletal remains as well as to make an evaluation of the methods used for age estimation. For this purpose, four age calculation methods were used: palatal suture closure, occlusal tooth wear, tooth root translucency and pulp/tooth area ratio. Cramer's V test was used to test the association between the age calculation methods. Cramer's V test showed high association (0.677) between age determination results using palatal suture closure and occlusal tooth wear, and low association (0.177) between age determination results using palatal suture closure and pulp/tooth area ratio. Simple methods like palatal suture closure can provide data about age at death for large number of individuals, but with less accuracy. More complex methods which require qualified and trained personnel can provide data about age for a smaller number of individuals, but with more accuracy. Using different (both simple and complex) age calculation methods in archaeological samples can raise the level of confidence and percentage of success in determining age.

  11. Porosity estimation of aged mortar using a micromechanical model.

    PubMed

    Hernández, M G; Anaya, J J; Sanchez, T; Segura, I

    2006-12-22

    Degradation of concrete structures located in high humidity atmospheres or under flowing water is a very important problem. In this study, a method for ultrasonic non-destructive characterization in aged mortar is presented. The proposed method makes a prediction of the behaviour of aged mortar accomplished with a three phase micromechanical model using ultrasonic measurements. Aging mortar was accelerated by immersing the probes in ammonium nitrate solution. Both destructive and non-destructive characterization of mortar was performed. Destructive tests of porosity were performed using a vacuum saturation method and non-destructive characterization was carried out using ultrasonic velocities. Aging experiments show that mortar degradation not only involves a porosity increase, but also microstructural changes in the cement matrix. Experimental results show that the estimated porosity using the proposed non-destructive methodology had a comparable performance to classical destructive techniques.

  12. Dental age estimation in Brazilian HIV children using Willems' method.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Rafael Boschetti; da Silva Assunção, Luciana Reichert; Franco, Ademir; Zaroni, Fábio Marzullo; Holderbaum, Rejane Maria; Fernandes, Ângela

    2015-12-01

    The notification of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in Brazilian children was first reported in 1984. Since that time more than 21 thousand children became infected. Approximately 99.6% of the children aged less than 13 years old are vertically infected. In this context, most of the children are abandoned after birth, or lose their relatives in a near future, growing with uncertain identification. The present study aims to estimate the dental age of Brazilian HIV patients in face of healthy patients paired by age and gender. The sample consisted of 160 panoramic radiographs of male (n: 80) and female (n: 80) patients aged between 4 and 15 years (mean age: 8.88 years), divided into HIV (n: 80) and control (n: 80) groups. The sample was analyzed by three trained examiners, using Willems' method, 2001. Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied to test intra- and inter-examiner agreement, and Student paired t-test was used to determine the age association between HIV and control groups. Intra-examiner (ICC: from 0.993 to 0.997) and inter-examiner (ICC: from 0.991 to 0.995) agreement tests indicated high reproducibility of the method between the examiners (P<0.01). Willems' method revealed discrete statistical overestimation in HIV (2.86 months; P=0.019) and control (1.90 months; P=0.039) groups. However, stratified analysis by gender indicate that overestimation were only concentrated in male HIV (3.85 months; P=0.001) and control (2.86 months; P=0.022) patients. The significant statistical differences are not clinically relevant once only few months of discrepancy are detected applying Willems' method in a Brazilian HIV sample, making this method highly recommended for dental age estimation of both HIV and healthy children with unknown age.

  13. Age estimation in children by measurement of open apices in teeth.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Cingolani, Mariano

    2006-01-01

    This paper concerns a method for estimating the age of children based on their teeth. The sample consisted of 455 Italian white children (213 boys, 242 girls) aged between 5 and 15 years. The purpose of the present investigation was to present a method for assessing chronological age based on the relationship between age and measurement of the open apices in teeth. Pearson's correlation coefficients between age and these variables showed that the correlations between age and the open apices in teeth were significant and negative. Furthermore, gender and the number of teeth with the apical end of the root canals completely closed (N(0)) showed a significant correlation with chronological age. With the aid of a stepwise multiple regression model, a linear relationship between open apices, N(0), and age was shown. Statistical analysis indicated that these morphological variables explain 83.6% of the variations in estimated chronological age. The median of residual errors between the actual and estimated ages was -0.035 years [interquartile range (IQR)=1.18 years].

  14. Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

    PubMed

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

    2015-12-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years.

  15. Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

    PubMed Central

    Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

  16. Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.

    PubMed

    Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika

    2013-12-10

    Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age. PMID:24314532

  17. Estimating the Age Distribution of Oceanic Dissolved Organic Carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Follett, C. L.; Forney, D. C.; Repeta, D.; Rothman, D.

    2010-12-01

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a large, ubiquitous component of open ocean water at all depths and impacts atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at both short and long timescales. It is currently believed that oceanic DOC contains a multi-thousand-year-old refractory deep-water component which is mixed with a young labile component in surface waters. Unfortunately, the only evidence for this comes from a few isolated depth profiles of both DOC concentration and bulk radiocarbon. Although the profile data is consistent with a two-component mixing model, directly separating the two components has proven to be a challenge. We explore the validity of the two component mixing model by directly estimating the age distribution of oceanic DOC. The two-component model suggests that the age distribution is composed of two distinct peaks. In order to obtain an estimate of the age distribution we first record changes in both concentration and percent radiocarbon as a sample is oxidized under ultra-violet radiation [1]. We formulate a mathematical model relating the age distribution to these changes, assuming that they result from components of different radiocarbon age and UV-reactivity. This allows us to numerically invert the data and estimate the age distribution. We apply our procedure to DOC samples collected from three distinct depths (50, 500, and 2000 meters) in the north-central Pacific Ocean. [1] S.R. Beaupre, E.R.M. Druffel, and S. Griffin. A low-blank photochemical extraction system for concentration and isotopic analyses of marine dissolved organic carbon. Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods, 5:174-184, 2007.

  18. Application OF LIBS To Estimate The Age Of Broiler Breeders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salam, Z. Abdel; Harith, M. A.

    2011-09-01

    Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is a well-known spectrochemical elemental analysis technique. In our investigations of the LIBS spectra it has been found that there is a remarkable correlation between the ionic to atomic spectral lines emission ratio and the surface hardness of eggshell for two Different Broiler Breeder at different age. The proposed technique has been applied successfully in poultry science to estimate the age of broiler breeders by measuring the surface hardness of their eggshell. The experiments have been performed on two different strains, Arbor Acres plus (AAP) and Hubard Classic (HC), and the results were satisfactory.

  19. ESTIMATED DAILY AVERAGE PER CAPITA WATER INGESTION BY CHILD AND ADULT AGE CATEGORIES BASED ON USDA'S 1994-96 AND 1998 CONTINUING SURVEY OF FOOD INTAKES BY INDIVIDUALS (JOURNAL ARTICLE)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The ...

  20. Sap flow based transpiration estimates in species-rich secondary forests of different ages in central Panama during a wet-season drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

    2015-12-01

    Many landscapes that were previously covered by mature tropical forests in central Panama today comprise of a mosaic of mature forest fragments, pastures and agricultural land, and regrowing secondary forests. An increasing demand for water due to urbanization and the expansion of the Panama Canal, along with a predicted transition into a dryer climatic period necessitate a better understanding regarding the effects of land use and land use history on hydrological processes. Such knowledge, including water storage, residence times, and fluxes is essential to develop effective land management strategies and propose incentives to alter land use practices to enhance hydrological services. To quantify transpiration rates at different stages of secondary forest succession, we measured sap flow in forests growing for 8, ~25, and 80+ years since last known land use in the 15 km2 "Agua Salud" study area, located in central Panama. In each forest, we selected a subset of at least 15 individuals, representing the local tree size distribution, and recorded data from heat-ratio sap flow sensors every 30 minutes starting in February 2015. All instrumented trees were identified to species and compared to local species distributions. Basal area in the three forest types was 9.1, 10.8, and 50.2 m2 ha-1 for 8, ~25, and 80+ year old forests, respectively. Average daily transpiration was highly correlated to forest age, with highest rates in the oldest forest (3.0 to 18.2 mm ha-1 day-1), followed by intermediate (1.2 to 6.7 mm ha-1 day-1) and youngest forests (0.2 to 2.7 mm ha-1 day-1), suggesting roughly a doubling in transpiration from 8 to ~25 year old forests, despite similar basal area, and again from ~25 to 80+ year old forests. Flow rates in individual trees generally reflected the dry-to-wet season transition but behaved differently in response to the unprecedentedly dry conditions during the first half of 2015 in central Panama.

  1. A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications

  2. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  3. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  4. A review of the most commonly used dental age estimation techniques.

    PubMed

    Willems, G

    2001-06-01

    This review of literature provides an overview of the most commonly used dental age estimation techniques and focuses on dental age estimation scoring systems in children and adults. In order to obtain a more reliable and reproducible age estimation the forensic odontologist should use several of these available methods whenever an age estimation in the living or dead is required. PMID:11494678

  5. Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2008-01-01

    Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

  6. Age estimation among Brazilians: Younger or older than 18?

    PubMed

    Deitos, Alexandre Raphael; Costa, Claudio; Michel-Crosato, Edgard; Galić, Ivan; Cameriere, Roberto; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye

    2015-07-01

    The age estimation of living or dead individuals is an important part of forensic science because it can be used in various situations, including mass disasters, or for civil or criminal reasons, such as adoption or asylum. Teeth play a major role in this context because they are more resistant than bones in extreme environmental conditions and their development is hardly affected by exogenous or endogenous factors. Because the third molars (3rdM) are still in development from the age of 14, they are useful for determining whether an individual has reached the legal age of 18 years. This study aims to verify the method of Cameriere et al. (2008) in Brazil to discriminate whether an individual is under or over 18 years from the maturity index of the 3rdM (I3m). The analysis of 444 panoramic radiographs resulted in a sensitivity of 78.3%, a specificity of 85.1% and a correct classification of 87%. Significant differences in sexual dimorphism in the early mineralization of males were found only for the average age with I3m ≥ 0.08, except for the range (0.7, 0.9). Due to the high miscegenation ratio of the Brazilian population the ancestry was not one of the studied variables. The method is suitable for estimating adulthood for forensic purposes in Brazil, although it must be applied carefully and judiciously. We recommend a combination of several methods that are available to increase accuracy as well as the establishment of different parameters that are likely to determine whether a person is more or less than 18 years of age, depending on the different legal requirements, whether civil or criminal.

  7. Estimating the age of alleles by use of intraallelic variability

    SciTech Connect

    Slatkin, M.; Rannala, B.

    1997-02-01

    A method is presented for estimating the age of an allele by use of its frequency and the extent of variation among different copies. The method uses the joint distribution of the number of copies in a population sample and the coalescence times of the intraallelic gene genealogy conditioned on the number of copies. The linear birth-death process is used to approximate the dynamics of a rare allele in a finite population. A maximum-likelihood estimate of the age of the allele is obtained by Monte Carlo integration over the coalescence times. The method is applied to two alleles at the cystic fibrosis (CFTR) locus, {Delta}F508 and G542X, for which intraallelic variability at three intronic microsatellite loci has been examined. Our results indicate that G542X is somewhat older than {Delta}F508. Although absolute estimates depend on the mutation rates at the microsatellite loci, our results support the hypothesis that {Delta}F508 arose <500 generations ({approx}10,000 years) ago. 32 refs., 4 figs.

  8. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana)

    PubMed Central

    Stansfield, Fiona J.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These ‘Age Reference Lines’ were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70–75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  9. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana).

    PubMed

    Stansfield, Fiona J

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified.

  10. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana).

    PubMed

    Stansfield, Fiona J

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  11. Human age estimation from blood using mRNA, DNA methylation, DNA rearrangement, and telomere length.

    PubMed

    Zubakov, Dmitry; Liu, Fan; Kokmeijer, Iris; Choi, Ying; van Meurs, Joyce B J; van IJcken, Wilfred F J; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Broer, Linda; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Lewin, Jörn; Kayser, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    Establishing the age of unknown persons, or persons with unknown age, can provide important leads in police investigations, disaster victim identification, fraud cases, and in other legal affairs. Previous methods mostly relied on morphological features available from teeth or skeletal parts. The development of molecular methods for age estimation allowing to use human specimens that possess no morphological age information, such as bloodstains, is extremely valuable as this type of samples is commonly found at crime scenes. Recently, we introduced a DNA-based approach for human age estimation from blood based on the quantification of T-cell specific DNA rearrangements (sjTRECs), which achieves accurate assignment of blood DNA samples to one of four 20-year-interval age categories. Aiming at improving the accuracy of molecular age estimation from blood, we investigated different types of biomarkers. We started out by systematic genome-wide surveys for new age-informative mRNA and DNA methylation markers in blood from the same young and old individuals using microarray technologies. The obtained candidate markers were validated in independent samples covering a wide age range using alternative technologies together with previously proposed DNA methylation, sjTREC, and telomere length markers. Cross-validated multiple regression analysis was applied for estimating and validating the age predictive power of various sets of biomarkers within and across different marker types. We found that DNA methylation markers outperformed mRNA, sjTREC, and telomere length in age predictive power. The best performing model included 8 DNA methylation markers derived from 3 CpG islands reaching a high level of accuracy (cross-validated R(2)=0.88, SE±6.97 years, mean absolute deviation 5.07 years). However, our data also suggest that mRNA markers can provide independent age information: a model using a combined set of 5 DNA methylation markers and one mRNA marker could provide

  12. Human age estimation from blood using mRNA, DNA methylation, DNA rearrangement, and telomere length.

    PubMed

    Zubakov, Dmitry; Liu, Fan; Kokmeijer, Iris; Choi, Ying; van Meurs, Joyce B J; van IJcken, Wilfred F J; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Broer, Linda; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Lewin, Jörn; Kayser, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    Establishing the age of unknown persons, or persons with unknown age, can provide important leads in police investigations, disaster victim identification, fraud cases, and in other legal affairs. Previous methods mostly relied on morphological features available from teeth or skeletal parts. The development of molecular methods for age estimation allowing to use human specimens that possess no morphological age information, such as bloodstains, is extremely valuable as this type of samples is commonly found at crime scenes. Recently, we introduced a DNA-based approach for human age estimation from blood based on the quantification of T-cell specific DNA rearrangements (sjTRECs), which achieves accurate assignment of blood DNA samples to one of four 20-year-interval age categories. Aiming at improving the accuracy of molecular age estimation from blood, we investigated different types of biomarkers. We started out by systematic genome-wide surveys for new age-informative mRNA and DNA methylation markers in blood from the same young and old individuals using microarray technologies. The obtained candidate markers were validated in independent samples covering a wide age range using alternative technologies together with previously proposed DNA methylation, sjTREC, and telomere length markers. Cross-validated multiple regression analysis was applied for estimating and validating the age predictive power of various sets of biomarkers within and across different marker types. We found that DNA methylation markers outperformed mRNA, sjTREC, and telomere length in age predictive power. The best performing model included 8 DNA methylation markers derived from 3 CpG islands reaching a high level of accuracy (cross-validated R(2)=0.88, SE±6.97 years, mean absolute deviation 5.07 years). However, our data also suggest that mRNA markers can provide independent age information: a model using a combined set of 5 DNA methylation markers and one mRNA marker could provide

  13. Estimation of fetal gestational age from ultrasound images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salari, Valiollah

    1992-06-01

    Estimation of fetal gestational age, weight, and determination of fetal growth from the measurements of certain parameters of fetal head, abdomen, and femur have been well established in prenatal sonography. The measurements are made from the two dimensional, B- mode, ultrasound images of the fetus. The most common parameters measured are, biparietal diameter, occipital frontal diameter, head circumference, femur diaphysis length, and abdominal circumference. Since the fetal head has an elliptical shape and the femur has a linear shape, fitting the ellipse on the image of the fetal head, a line on the image of the femur are the tasks of image processing which are discussed in this paper.

  14. Preliminary age, growth and maturity estimates of spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) in British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, J. R.; McPhie, R. P.

    2015-05-01

    The spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) is a chimaeroid ranging from southeast Alaska to Baja California and found at depths of up to 1029 m. Despite being widespread and ubiquitous, few biological parameter estimates exist for spotted ratfish due to a lack of suitable ageing structures to estimate age and growth. We present preliminary results of age, growth and maturity estimates based on a new method in which tritor ridges are counted on the vomerine tooth plate. We also provide a method for estimating the number of worn tritor ridges based on tooth plate diameter measurements for the spotted ratfish. The tritor ridges are distinct bumps that are easy to identify and precision estimates between readers suggests that this method is transferable. Tritor ridges are a potential structure for estimating age in H. colliei and we provide recommendations for future research to improve the method. We sampled 269 spotted ratfish captured in trawl surveys off the coast British Columbia ranging in size from 74 to 495 mm in precaudal length (PCL). The estimated ages ranged from 2 to 16 years for males and from 2 to 21 years for females. The von Bertalanffy, von Bertalanffy with known size at birth, Gompertz and logistic growth models were fitted to the data. Based on Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size and number of parameters estimated, the logistic growth curve was selected as most suitable. The logistic growth model yielded the following parameter estimates: Linf=407.22 mm (PCL), k=0.23 year-1, t0=-7.06 years for males; L∞=494.52 mm (PCL), k=0.26 year-1, t0=-8.35 years for females. Estimated ages at 50% maturity were 12 and 14 years for males and females, respectively. Correspondingly, the size at 50% maturity estimates was smaller for males (302 mm, PCL) than females (393 mm, PCL). Both estimates are larger than those made for spotted ratfish off of California indicating regional differences in life history traits for this species. Our preliminary

  15. Conventional versus digital approach for measuring dentin translucency in forensic age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Chopra, Varun; Thodasam, Gopal; Ahmad, Zeeshan Heera; Singh, Simranjit; Rajawat, Indresh; Gupta, Sonal

    2015-01-01

    Background: Root dentine translucency remains the method of choice providing the most accurate results for age estimation. Conventionally, translucency is measured using calipers. In recent times, computer-based methods are proposed, which require the use of custom-built software programs. Aims and Objectives: The aim was to use a digital method to measure dentinal translucency on sectioned teeth and to compare digital measurements to conventionally obtained translucency measurements. Materials and Methods: A total of 200 extracted permanent teeth were collected and were sectioned to a thickness of 250 μm. Translucency measurements were obtained using the digital method and compared with those obtained using a caliper. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both methods (P < 0.001), although marginally higher correlation was observed for the conventional method (r = 0.612). Application of derived linear regression equations on an independent sample (n = 25) suggested that conventional approach is marginally better in estimating age to within 5 years of the actual age, both the methods are similar in assessing age within 5-10 years of the actual age, and digital approach is marginally better in estimating age beyond 10 years of actual age. Conclusion: The translucency measurements obtained by the two methods were identical, with no clear superiority of one method over the other. PMID:25810651

  16. Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Amitha J.; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K. R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K. P; Manaktala, Nidhi

    2015-01-01

    Aim: The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Results: Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R2 varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. Conclusion: The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development. PMID:26005306

  17. Updating UK estimates of age, sex and period specific cumulative constant tar cigarette consumption per adult

    PubMed Central

    Forey, B.; Lee, P.; Fry, J.

    1998-01-01

    BACKGROUND—In 1993 we presented age and sex specific estimates of cumulative constant tar cigarette consumption (CCTCC) per adult for five year periods to 1986-90. These were derived from annual surveys conducted for the Tobacco Manufacturers' Association (TMA) since 1946, extrapolated back to 1891 for men and to 1921 for women and corrected for the decline in average (machine smoked) tar levels. We now provide estimates for 1991-5.
METHODS—TMA surveys having ceased, 1991-5 estimates of manufactured cigarette consumption per adult (MCA) were derived from the General Household Survey (GHS) and corrected for the continuing decline in tar. These estimates were divided by 0.75 (men) and 0.80 (women), based on a comparison of GHS and TMA data for 1971-90, to allow accumulation with the TMA derived estimates prior to 1991.
RESULTS—For both sexes the GHS/TMA ratio of MCA varied little by age or five year period, justifying the use of the correction factors when adjusting GHS estimates for 1991-95. TMA estimates were higher than GHS estimates as only TMA sales-corrected their data for understatement of smoking and the surveys differed in questions on handrolled cigarette smoking. The 1991-95 data confirm the continuing decline in CCTCC at all ages in men. Women show a less steep decline for ages 30-64 and an increase for ages 65-84.
CONCLUSION—The GHS data can validly be used to update the CCTCC estimates. Some reservations about the use of CCTCC are discussed.

 PMID:10193376

  18. Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area

    SciTech Connect

    Pittenger, D B

    1992-02-01

    The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.

  19. [Estimating the age of start of drug abuse in cross-sectional surveys exemplified by the Swiss Health Survey].

    PubMed

    Gmel, G; Rehm, J

    1996-01-01

    This paper is based on data from the first Swiss Health Survey, but deals with a more general problem; the estimation of age of onset in illegal substance consumption. First, it is shown that taking the arithmetic mean for different age-groups as estimator leads to an underestimation of age of onset in the younger groups. Consequently, an alternative method is proposed based on survival models with right censoring. The prediction of age of onset is modeled with nonlinear functions. Results show for cannabis consumption in Switzerland that age of onset did not decrease notably during the past decade.

  20. Aging Effects on Behavioural Estimates of Suppression with Short Suppressors.

    PubMed

    Hegland, Erica L; Strickland, Elizabeth A

    2016-01-01

    Auditory two-tone suppression is a nearly instantaneous reduction in the response of the basilar membrane to a tone or noise when a second tone or noise is presented simultaneously. Previous behavioural studies provide conflicting evidence on whether suppression changes with increasing age, and aging effects may depend on whether a suppressor above (high-side) or below (low-side) the signal frequency is used. Most previous studies have measured suppression using stimuli long enough to elicit the medial olivocochlear reflex (MOCR), a sound-elicited reflex that reduces cochlear amplification or gain. It has a "sluggish" onset of approximately 25 ms. There is physiological evidence that suppression may be reduced or altered by elicitation of the MOCR. In the present study, suppression was measured behaviourally in younger adults and older adults using a forward-masking paradigm with 20-ms and 70-ms maskers and suppressors. In experiment 1, gain was estimated by comparing on-frequency (2 kHz) and off-frequency (1.2 kHz) masker thresholds for a short, fixed-level 2-kHz signal. In experiment 2, the fixed-level signal was preceded by an off-frequency suppressor (1.2 or 2.4 kHz) presented simultaneously with the on-frequency masker. A suppressor level was chosen that did not produce any forward masking of the signal. Suppression was measured as the difference in on-frequency masker threshold with and without the suppressor present. The effects of age on gain and suppression estimates will be discussed.

  1. Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

    PubMed

    Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information. PMID:24261921

  2. Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

    PubMed

    Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information.

  3. Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

    PubMed

    Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

    2016-07-01

    Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. PMID:27079530

  4. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma.

    PubMed

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D; Wancata, Lauren M; Muenz, Daniel G; Haymart, Megan R; Wong, Sandra L

    2016-02-01

    Overall cancer incidence is decreasing, whereas melanoma cases are increasing. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients the farther they are from time of diagnosis. The effect of age and stage on a melanoma patient's conditional survival estimate is unknown. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were utilized to identify newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95 041), from 1998 to 2005, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression analysis and transformed to estimated conditional 5-year survival. Localized melanoma patients have an excellent 5-year survival at diagnosis and over subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70-79 years) with younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01-4.84] and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87-1.53). Over time, conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease, neither is the age gradient. Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanomas are initially impacted by older age, with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional 5-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision-making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  5. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D.; Wancata, Lauren M.; Muenz, Daniel G.; Haymart, Megan R.; Wong, Sandra L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Overall cancer incidence is decreasing while melanoma cases increase. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients as they survive past diagnosis. It is unknown the effect age and stage has on a melanoma patient’s conditional survival estimate. Methods Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) data was utilized, identifying new diagnosis cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95,041), from 1998–2005, with up to 12 year follow up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression and transformed to estimate conditional five-year survival. Results Localized melanoma patients have an excellent five-year survival at diagnosis and subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70–79 years) to younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01–4.84) and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93–2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87–1.53). Over time conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease nor is the age gradient. Conclusions Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanoma is initially impacted by older age with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional five-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  6. Estimating age from recapture data: Integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  7. Estimating age from recapture data: Integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eaton, M.J.; Link, W.A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture-recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to

  8. Using a Near-Infrared Spectrometer to Estimate the Age of Anopheles Mosquitoes Exposed to Pyrethroids

    PubMed Central

    Sikulu, Maggy T.; Majambere, Silas; Khatib, Bakar O.; Ali, Abdullah S.; Hugo, Leon E.; Dowell, Floyd E.

    2014-01-01

    We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as <7 or ≥7 d old with an overall accuracy of 79%. The age categories of Anopheles mosquitoes that were not exposed to the insecticide papers were predicted with 78% accuracy whereas the age categories of resistant, susceptible and mosquitoes exposed to control papers were predicted with 82%, 78% and 79% accuracy, respectively. The ages of 85% of the wild-collected mixed-age Anopheles were predicted by NIRS as ≤8 d for both susceptible and resistant groups. The age structure of wild-collected mosquitoes was not significantly different for the pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes (P = 0.210). Based on these findings, NIRS chronological age estimation technique for Anopheles mosquitoes may be independent of insecticide exposure and the environmental conditions to which the mosquitoes are exposed. PMID:24594705

  9. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in Iranian population.

    PubMed

    Rai, Balwant; Kaur, Jasdeep; Jafarzadeh, Hamid

    2010-08-01

    A sharp increase in forensic age estimation of living persons has been observed in recent years. However, ethnic populations residing in different countries have been insufficiently analyzed. The aim of this study was to achieve a referral database and regression equations for dental age estimation of unaccompanied minors of Iran nationality. A total of 1200 orthopantomograms were collected from original Iran and equally divided in age categories between 10 and 27 years. On the radiographs, the developmental stage of the third molars was scored applying a Demirjian et al. scoring technique. Inter- and intra-observer reliabilities were tested using kappa statistics. Correlation between the scores of all four wisdom maxillary and mandibular third molars teeth and left/right symmetry were evaluated with spearman correlation coefficient. Student's t-test on asymmetry was performed and regression formulas were calculated. The present database was the first to assemble third molar developmental scores on radiographs of Iran individuals and provided more appropriate dental age estimation of unaccompanied Iran minors. To enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molars mineralization, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

  10. Age estimation in Indian children and adolescents in the NCR region of Haryana: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Swati; Mehendiratta, Monica; Rehani, Shweta; Kumra, Madhumani; Nagpal, Ruchi; Gupta, Ramakant

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is a preliminary step in the identification of an individual. It is a crucial and often most critical step for forensic experts. The assessment has been standardized utilizing common dental diagnostic x-rays, but most such age-estimating systems are European population-based and their applicability has not been determined in the context of the Indian population. Aims and Objectives: To assess the applicability and to compare the methods of dental age estimation by Demirjian's method and the same method as modified by Willems (i.e. the Willems method) in Indian children of the National Capital Region (NCR). Also, to find a correlation among skeletal maturity using the Cervical vertebrae maturation index (CVMI), dental maturity, and chronological age in the same population. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using dental radiographs of 70 orthodontic patients (37 males, 33 females) in the age range 9-16 years selected by simple random sampling. pantomogram were used to estimate dental age by Demirjian's method and the Willems method using their scoring tables. Lateral cephalograms were used to estimate skeletal maturity using CVMI. The latter was compared with Demirjian's stage for mandibular left second molar. Results: Overestimation of age among males by 0.856 years and 0.496 years was found by Demirjian's and the Willems methods, respectively. Among females, both the methods underestimated the age by 0.31 years and 0.45 years, respectively. Demirjian's stage G corresponded to CVMI stage 3 in males and stage 2 in females. Conclusion: In our study, the Willems method has proved to be more accurate for age estimation among Indian males, and Demirjian's method for Indian females. A statistically significant association appeared between Demirjian's stages and CVMI among both males and females. Our study recommends the derivation of a regression formula by studying a larger section of the Indian population

  11. Estimating Black Carbon Aging Time-Scales with a Particle-Resolved Aerosol Model

    SciTech Connect

    Riemer, Nicole; West, Matt; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Easter, Richard C.

    2010-01-13

    Understanding the aging process of aerosol particles is important for assessing their chemical reactivity, cloud condensation nuclei activity, radiative properties and health impacts. In this study we investigate the aging of black carbon containing particles in an idealized urban plume using a new approach, the particleresolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. We present a method to estimate aging time-scales using an aging criterion based on cloud condensation nuclei activation. The results show a separation into a daytime regime where condensation dominates and a nighttime regime where coagulation dominates. For the chosen urban plume scenario, depending on the supersaturation threshold, the values for the aging timescales vary between 0.06 hours and 10 hours during the day, and between 6 hours and 20 hours during the night.

  12. Incompatible Ages for Clearwing Butterflies Based on Alternative Secondary Calibrations.

    PubMed

    Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Silva-Brandão, Karina L; Willmott, Keith R; Freitas, André V L; Brower, Andrew V Z

    2015-09-01

    The recent publication of a time-tree for the plant family Solanaceae (nightshades) provides the opportunity to use independent calibrations to test divergence times previously inferred for the diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini. Ithomiini includes clades that are obligate herbivores of Solanaceae, with some genera feeding on only one genus. We used 8 calibrations extracted from the plant tree in a new relaxed molecular-clock analysis to produce an alternative temporal framework for the diversification of ithomiines. We compared the resulting age estimates to: (i) a time-tree obtained using 7 secondary calibrations from the Nymphalidae tree of Wahlberg et al. (2009), and (ii) Wahlberg et al.'s (2009) original age estimates for the same clades. We found that Bayesian clock estimates were rather sensitive to a variety of analytical parameters, including taxon sampling. Regardless of this sensitivity however, ithomiine divergence times calibrated with the ages of nightshades were always on average half the age of previous estimates. Younger dates for ithomiine clades appear to fit better with factors long suggested to have promoted diversification of the group such as the uplifting of the Andes, in the case of montane genera. Alternatively, if ithomiines are as old as previous estimates suggest, the recent ages inferred for the diversification of Solanaceae seem likely to be seriously underestimated. Our study exemplifies the difficulty of testing hypotheses of divergence times and of choosing between alternative dating scenarios, and shows that age estimates based on seemingly plausible calibrations may be grossly incongruent. PMID:26012872

  13. Incompatible Ages for Clearwing Butterflies Based on Alternative Secondary Calibrations.

    PubMed

    Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Silva-Brandão, Karina L; Willmott, Keith R; Freitas, André V L; Brower, Andrew V Z

    2015-09-01

    The recent publication of a time-tree for the plant family Solanaceae (nightshades) provides the opportunity to use independent calibrations to test divergence times previously inferred for the diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini. Ithomiini includes clades that are obligate herbivores of Solanaceae, with some genera feeding on only one genus. We used 8 calibrations extracted from the plant tree in a new relaxed molecular-clock analysis to produce an alternative temporal framework for the diversification of ithomiines. We compared the resulting age estimates to: (i) a time-tree obtained using 7 secondary calibrations from the Nymphalidae tree of Wahlberg et al. (2009), and (ii) Wahlberg et al.'s (2009) original age estimates for the same clades. We found that Bayesian clock estimates were rather sensitive to a variety of analytical parameters, including taxon sampling. Regardless of this sensitivity however, ithomiine divergence times calibrated with the ages of nightshades were always on average half the age of previous estimates. Younger dates for ithomiine clades appear to fit better with factors long suggested to have promoted diversification of the group such as the uplifting of the Andes, in the case of montane genera. Alternatively, if ithomiines are as old as previous estimates suggest, the recent ages inferred for the diversification of Solanaceae seem likely to be seriously underestimated. Our study exemplifies the difficulty of testing hypotheses of divergence times and of choosing between alternative dating scenarios, and shows that age estimates based on seemingly plausible calibrations may be grossly incongruent.

  14. Dental age estimation utilizing third molar development: A review of principles, methods, and population studies used in the United States.

    PubMed

    Lewis, James M; Senn, David R

    2010-09-10

    When an individual reaches the age of legal majority, their treatment within the criminal and civil legal systems is changed dramatically in the United States. Forensic odontologists are often asked to assist government agencies in estimating the ages of persons who may or may not have reached that legally important age. The third molars are the only teeth useful as forensic estimators of chronological age in the target age group. This study reviews the principles, methodology, and population data of the most commonly used technique in the United States, the analysis of the third molar development based on modified Demirjian staging. The method analyzes the developing third molar to estimate mean age, age intervals and the empirical probability that an individual has reached the anniversary of her or his eighteenth birthday.

  15. Age estimation of immature human skeletal remains from the diaphyseal length of the long bones in the postnatal period.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V; Abrantes, Joana; Humphrey, Louise T

    2014-09-01

    Age at death in immature human skeletal remains has been estimated from the diaphyseal length of the long bones, but few studies have actually been designed specifically for the purpose of age estimation and those which have, show important caveats. This study uses regression and classical calibration to model the relationship between age and diaphyseal length of the six long bones, in a sample of 184 known sex and age individuals (72 females and 112 males), younger than 13 years of age, selected from Portuguese and English skeletal collections. Age estimation models based on classical calibration were obtained for each of the six long bones, and separately for each sex and for the sexes combined, and also for the entire sample and when it is subdivided into two subsamples at the age of 2 years. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show there is a systematic bias in age estimations obtained from inverse calibration. In the classical calibration models, the length of the femur provides the most accurate estimates of age. Age estimates are more accurate for the male subsample and for individuals under the age of 2 years. These results and a test of previously published methods caution against inverse calibration as a technique for developing age estimation methods even from the immature skeleton. Age estimation methods developed using cemetery collections of identified human skeletons should not be uncritically applied to present-day populations from the same region since many populations have experienced dramatic secular trends in growth and adult height over the last century.

  16. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

    PubMed Central

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

  17. Channel estimation in DCT-based OFDM.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yulin; Zhang, Gengxin; Xie, Zhidong; Hu, Jing

    2014-01-01

    This paper derives the channel estimation of a discrete cosine transform-(DCT-) based orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) system over a frequency-selective multipath fading channel. Channel estimation has been proved to improve system throughput and performance by allowing for coherent demodulation. Pilot-aided methods are traditionally used to learn the channel response. Least square (LS) and mean square error estimators (MMSE) are investigated. We also study a compressed sensing (CS) based channel estimation, which takes the sparse property of wireless channel into account. Simulation results have shown that the CS based channel estimation is expected to have better performance than LS. However MMSE can achieve optimal performance because of prior knowledge of the channel statistic.

  18. Age estimation of a large bighead carp from Grand Lake, Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, James M.; Nealis, Ashley

    2011-01-01

    On April 23, 2011, a 1356-mm total length (TL), 39.8 kg bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) was brought to the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. This specimen is the largest bighead carp recorded from Oklahoma, and it is near the maximum size reported from the United States. This specimen was estimated to be nine years old based on estimates from three different structures (pectoral fin ray, branchiostegal ray, and otolith). The age, together with past Oklahoma records of the species, indicates that there has been multiple introductions or undocumented reproduction of bighead carp in the Grand Lake basin.

  19. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-01-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

  20. Estimating Decision Indices Based on Composite Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knupp, Tawnya Lee

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an IRT model that would enable the estimation of decision indices based on composite scores. The composite scores, defined as a combination of unidimensional test scores, were either a total raw score or an average scale score. Additionally, estimation methods for the normal and compound multinomial models…

  1. Age estimation in northern Chinese children by measurement of open apices in tooth roots.

    PubMed

    Guo, Yu-Cheng; Yan, Chun-Xia; Lin, Xing-Wei; Zhou, Hong; Li, Ju-Ping; Pan, Feng; Zhang, Zhi-Yong; Wei, Lai; Tang, Zheng; Chen, Teng

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of Cameriere's methods on dental age estimation in the northern Chinese population. A sample of orthopantomographs of 785 healthy children (397 girls and 388 boys) aged between 5 and 15 years was collected. The seven left permanent mandibular teeth were evaluated with Cameriere's method. The sample was split into a training set to develop a Chinese-specific prediction formula and a test set to validate this novel developed formula. Following the training dataset study, the variables gender (g), x 3 (canine teeth), x 4 (first premolar), x 7 (second molar), N 0, and the first-order interaction between s and N 0 contributed significantly to the fit, yielding the following linear regression formula: Age = 10.202 + 0.826 g - 4.068x 3 - 1.536x 4 - 1.959x 7 + 0.536 N 0 - 0.219 s [Symbol: see text] N 0, where g is a variable, 1 for boys and 0 for girls. The equation explained 91.2 % (R (2) = 0.912) of the total deviance. By analyzing the test dataset, the accuracy of the European formula and Chinese formula was determined by the difference between the estimated dental age (DA) and chronological age (CA). The European formula verified on the collected Chinese children underestimated chronological age with a mean difference of around -0.23 year, while the Chinese formula underestimated the chronological age with a mean difference of -0.04 year. Significant differences in mean differences in years (DA - CA) and absolute difference (AD) between the Chinese-specific prediction formula and Cameriere's European formula were observed. In conclusion, a Chinese-specific prediction formula based on a large Chinese reference sample could ameliorate the age prediction accuracy in the age group of children.

  2. So You Think You Look Young? Matching Older Adults' Subjective Ages with Age Estimations Provided by Younger, Middle-Aged, and Older Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kotter-Gruhn, Dana; Hess, Thomas M.

    2012-01-01

    Perceived age plays an important role in the context of age identity and social interactions. To examine how accurate individuals are in estimating how old they look and how old others are, younger, middle-aged, and older adults rated photographs of older target persons (for whom we had information about objective and subjective age) in terms of…

  3. A Comparison of Different Age Estimation Methods of the Adult Pelvis.

    PubMed

    Miranker, Molly

    2016-09-01

    The adult human pelvis is useful to estimate age because it contains three age indicators-the pubic symphysis, auricular surface, and acetabulum. This study tested the accuracy, inaccuracy, and bias of age estimation from the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis, Osborne auricular surface, Rissech and Calce acetabulum aging methods, and a summary age of these indicators. The study sample consisted of 212 White individuals with known age and sex from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. The Rissech method performed the best, was the most accurate method with smallest inaccuracy and bias, followed by the Osborne, Suchey-Brooks, summary age, and then Calce methods. Though the Pearson correlation showed only the Suchey-Brooks method to correlate significantly with known age, it is likely the Suchey-Brooks study sample coincidentally reflected the age distribution of this test sample. Results suggested that Bayesian prediction may improve age estimation and should be applied to other age indicators.

  4. Global estimate of the incidence of clinical pneumonia among children under five years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Tomaskovic, Lana; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Campbell, Harry

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Clinical pneumonia (defined as respiratory infections associated with clinical signs of pneumonia, principally pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children under five years of age is still the leading cause of childhood mortality in the world. In this paper we aim to estimate the worldwide incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children. METHODS: Our estimate for the developing world is based on an analysis of published data on the incidence of clinical pneumonia from community based longitudinal studies. Among more than 2000 studies published since 1961, we identified 46 studies that reported the incidence of clinical pneumonia, and 28 of these met pre-defined quality criteria. FINDINGS: The estimate of the median incidence from those studies was 0.28 episodes per child-year (e/cy). The 25-75% interquartile range was 0.21-0.71. We assessed the plausibility of this estimate using estimates of global mortality from acute respiratory infections and reported case fatality rates for all episodes of clinical pneumonia reported in community-based studies or the case-fatality rate reported only for severe cases and estimates of the proportion of severe cases occurring in a defined population or community. CONCLUSION: The overlap between the ranges of the estimates implies that a plausible incidence estimate of clinical pneumonia for developing countries is 0.29 e/cy. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, 11-20 million (7-13%) of which are severe enough to require hospital admission. In the developed world no comparable data are available. However, large population-based studies report that the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children less than five years old is approximately 0.026 e/cy, suggesting that more than 95% of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries. PMID:15654403

  5. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2010, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  6. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2009, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  7. 78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-30

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ] ACTION: General notice announcing population estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  8. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-26

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2011, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  9. Estimated kidney function based on serum cystatin C and risk of subsequent coronary artery calcium in young and middle-aged adults with preserved kidney function: results from the CARDIA study.

    PubMed

    Bansal, Nisha; Vittinghoff, Eric; Peralta, Carmen A; Shlipak, Michael G; Grubbs, Vanessa; Jacobs, David R; Siscovick, David; Steffes, Michael; Carr, John Jeffrey; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten

    2013-08-01

    Whether kidney dysfunction is associated with coronary artery calcium (CAC) in young and middle-aged adults who have a cystatin C-derived estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys) greater than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) is unknown. In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) cohort (recruited in 1985 and 1986 in Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Oakland, California), we examined 1) the association of eGFRcys at years 10 and 15 and detectable CAC over the subsequent 5 years and 2) the association of change in eGFRcys and subsequent CAC, comparing those with stable eGFRcys to those whose eGFRcys increased (>3% annually over 5 years), declined moderately (3%-5%), or declined rapidly (>5%). Generalized estimating equation Poisson models were used, with adjustment for age, sex, race, educational level, income, family history of coronary artery disease, diabetes, body mass index, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and tobacco use. Among 3,070 participants (mean age 35.6 (standard deviation, 4.1) years and mean eGFRcys 106.7 (standard deviation, 18.5) mL/min/1.73 m(2)), 529 had detectable CAC. Baseline eGFRcys was not associated with CAC. Moderate eGFRcys decline was associated with a 33% greater relative risk of subsequent CAC (95% confidence interval: 5, 68; P = 0.02), whereas rapid decline was associated with a 51% higher relative risk (95% confidence interval: 10, 208; P = 0.01) in adjusted models. In conclusion, among young and middle-aged adults with eGFRcys greater than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), annual decline in eGFRcys is an independent risk factor for subsequent CAC.

  10. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    .33%); proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.36% (95% CI 97.40%, 97.46%); and Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.05 kg and (-2.15 kg; 2.24 kg). The height model fitted for MUAC classes was accurate and precise. For MUAC < 115 mm, the proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.15% (95% CI 96.90%, 97.42%) and the Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.08 kg and (-1.21 kg; 1.37 kg). For MUAC between 115 and 125 mm, the proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 98.93% (95% CI 98.82%, 99.03%) and Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.05 kg and (-1.15 kg; 1.24 kg). For MUAC > 125 mm, the proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 98.33% (95% CI 98.29%, 98.37%) and Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.05 kg and (-2.08 kg; 2.19 kg). Conclusions and Relevance Models estimating weight from height alone and height with MUAC class in children aged 6–59 months in a database from low-to-middle income countries were more accurate and precise than previous weight estimation tools. A height-based weight estimation tape stratified according to MUAC classes is proposed for children aged 6–59 months in limited-resource settings. PMID:27529816

  11. Human dental age estimation using third molar developmental stages: Accuracy of age predictions not using country specific information.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Alqerban, A; Asaumi, J; Kahveci, F; Kaur, J; Kim, Y K; Pittayapat, P; Van Vlierberghe, M; Zhang, Y; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

    2010-09-10

    Unquestionable forensic age investigations are based on statistical models constructed on a sample containing subjects of identical origin as the examined individual. In cases where corresponding models are unavailable, the established report has to describe the possible effects of this unrelated information on the predicted age outcome. The aim of this study is to collect country specific databases of third molar development and to verify how the related dental age estimations are influenced if we were to use dental developmental information only from Belgium or from all collected countries together. Data containing third molar developmental stages scored following Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Köhler) were collected from 9 country specific populations (Belgium, China, Japan, Korea, Poland, Thailand, Turkey, Saudi-Arabia and South-India). Age predictions were obtained from a training dataset and validated on a test dataset. Bayes rule using the repeated third molar scores is applied to get age predictions and prediction intervals. Three age predictions were compared for males and females separately. For the first prediction, the training dataset contains only Belgian subjects. For the second prediction, the training dataset for each country consists only of subjects of the country itself. For the final prediction, subjects from all countries are pooled into one common training dataset. Besides the (absolute) difference between the chronological age and the predicted age, specific interest lies in the juvenile-adult distinction. In the age range from 16 to 22 years 6982 subjects (3189 male and 3793 female) were analyzed. Using information on third molar development from Belgium compared to information from the country specific databases hardly increased the mean absolute differences (MAD) and mean squared errors (MSE): the MAD and MSE increased on average with 0.5 and 2.5 months with maximal increases of, respectively 1.6 and 7.3 months. Using information from all

  12. Human dental age estimation using third molar developmental stages: Accuracy of age predictions not using country specific information.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Alqerban, A; Asaumi, J; Kahveci, F; Kaur, J; Kim, Y K; Pittayapat, P; Van Vlierberghe, M; Zhang, Y; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

    2010-09-10

    Unquestionable forensic age investigations are based on statistical models constructed on a sample containing subjects of identical origin as the examined individual. In cases where corresponding models are unavailable, the established report has to describe the possible effects of this unrelated information on the predicted age outcome. The aim of this study is to collect country specific databases of third molar development and to verify how the related dental age estimations are influenced if we were to use dental developmental information only from Belgium or from all collected countries together. Data containing third molar developmental stages scored following Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Köhler) were collected from 9 country specific populations (Belgium, China, Japan, Korea, Poland, Thailand, Turkey, Saudi-Arabia and South-India). Age predictions were obtained from a training dataset and validated on a test dataset. Bayes rule using the repeated third molar scores is applied to get age predictions and prediction intervals. Three age predictions were compared for males and females separately. For the first prediction, the training dataset contains only Belgian subjects. For the second prediction, the training dataset for each country consists only of subjects of the country itself. For the final prediction, subjects from all countries are pooled into one common training dataset. Besides the (absolute) difference between the chronological age and the predicted age, specific interest lies in the juvenile-adult distinction. In the age range from 16 to 22 years 6982 subjects (3189 male and 3793 female) were analyzed. Using information on third molar development from Belgium compared to information from the country specific databases hardly increased the mean absolute differences (MAD) and mean squared errors (MSE): the MAD and MSE increased on average with 0.5 and 2.5 months with maximal increases of, respectively 1.6 and 7.3 months. Using information from all

  13. Dental age estimation and different predictive ability of various tooth types in the Czech population: data mining methods.

    PubMed

    Velemínská, Jana; Pilný, Ales; Cepek, Miroslav; Kot'ová, Magdaléna; Kubelková, Radka

    2013-01-01

    Dental development is frequently used to estimate age in many anthropological specializations. The aim of this study was to extract an accurate predictive age system for the Czech population and to discover any different predictive ability of various tooth types and their ontogenetic stability during infancy and adolescence. A cross-sectional panoramic X-ray study was based on developmental stages assessment of mandibular teeth (Moorrees et al. 1963) using 1393 individuals aged from 3 to 17 years. Data mining methods were used for dental age estimation. These are based on nonlinear relationships between the predicted age and data sets. Compared with other tested predictive models, the GAME method predicted age with the highest accuracy. Age-interval estimations between the 10th and 90th percentiles ranged from -1.06 to +1.01 years in girls and from -1.13 to +1.20 in boys. Accuracy was expressed by RMS error, which is the average deviation between estimated and chronological age. The predictive value of individual teeth changed during the investigated period from 3 to 17 years. When we evaluated the whole period, the second molars exhibited the best predictive ability. When evaluating partial age periods, we found that the accuracy of biological age prediction declines with increasing age (from 0.52 to 1.20 years in girls and from 0.62 to 1.22 years in boys) and that the predictive importance of tooth types changes, depending on variability and the number of developmental stages in the age interval. GAME is a promising tool for age-interval estimation studies as they can provide reliable predictive models. PMID:24466642

  14. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    PubMed

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between the average age and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location.

  15. View Estimation Based on Value System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yasutake; Shimada, Kouki; Asada, Minoru

    Estimation of a caregiver's view is one of the most important capabilities for a child to understand the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver, that is, to infer the intention of behavior and/or to learn the observed behavior efficiently. We hypothesize that the child develops this ability in the same way as behavior learning motivated by an intrinsic reward, that is, he/she updates the model of the estimated view of his/her own during the behavior imitated from the observation of the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver based on minimizing the estimation error of the reward during the behavior. From this view, this paper shows a method for acquiring such a capability based on a value system from which values can be obtained by reinforcement learning. The parameters of the view estimation are updated based on the temporal difference error (hereafter TD error: estimation error of the state value), analogous to the way such that the parameters of the state value of the behavior are updated based on the TD error. Experiments with simple humanoid robots show the validity of the method, and the developmental process parallel to young children's estimation of its own view during the imitation of the observed behavior of the caregiver is discussed.

  16. Estimating Tortuosity Coefficients Based on Hydraulic Conductivity.

    PubMed

    Carey, Grant R; McBean, Edward A; Feenstra, Stan

    2016-07-01

    While the tortuosity coefficient is commonly estimated using an expression based on total porosity, this relationship is demonstrated to not be applicable (and thus is often misapplied) over a broad range of soil textures. The fundamental basis for a correlation between the apparent diffusion tortuosity coefficient and hydraulic conductivity is demonstrated, although such a relationship is not typically considered. An empirical regression for estimating the tortuosity coefficient based on hydraulic conductivity for saturated, unconsolidated soil is derived based on results from 14 previously reported diffusion experiments performed with a broad range of soil textures. Analyses of these experimental results confirm that total porosity is a poor predictor for the tortuosity coefficient over a large range of soil textures. The apparent diffusion tortuosity coefficient is more reliably estimated based on hydraulic conductivity. PMID:27315019

  17. Estimation of individual age and season of death in woolly rhinoceros, Coelodonta antiquitatis (Blumenbach, 1799), from Sakha-Yakutia, Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirillova, Irina V.; Shidlovskiy, Fedor K.

    2010-11-01

    A unique find of a woolly rhinoceros skull bearing both nasal and frontal horns is described from a thermokarst lake of the Bol'shaya Chukoch'ya River basin in north-eastern Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia. Based on counts of cementum layers of the maxillary first molar and dark and transverse bands of the nasal and frontal horns a correlation of individual age records within these structures is established. Both estimations of individual age are agreed as well as three other age estimation criteria followed from cranial characteristics, general aspects of dentition and tooth wear pattern. Thus, the number of horn bands, which is equal to 30 or 31, does express the individual age at the moment when the woolly rhinoceros died. The tooth cementum and both horns are proved to be recording structures of woolly rhinoceroses which can be used as precise individual age estimation criteria. The season in which death occurred is also discussed.

  18. Mineral resources estimation based on block modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bargawa, Waterman Sulistyana; Amri, Nur Ali

    2016-02-01

    The estimation in this paper uses three kinds of block models of nearest neighbor polygon, inverse distance squared and ordinary kriging. The techniques are weighting scheme which is based on the principle that block content is a linear combination of the grade data or the sample around the block being estimated. The case study in Pongkor area, here is gold-silver resource modeling that allegedly shaped of quartz vein as a hydrothermal process of epithermal type. Resources modeling includes of data entry, statistical and variography analysis of topography and geological model, the block model construction, estimation parameter, presentation model and tabulation of mineral resources. Skewed distribution, here isolated by robust semivariogram. The mineral resources classification generated in this model based on an analysis of the kriging standard deviation and number of samples which are used in the estimation of each block. Research results are used to evaluate the performance of OK and IDS estimator. Based on the visual and statistical analysis, concluded that the model of OK gives the estimation closer to the data used for modeling.

  19. Age and growth of round gobies in Lake Michigan, with preliminary mortality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huo, Bin; Madenjian, Charles P.; Xie, Cong X.; Zhao, Yingming; O'Brien, Timothy P.; Czesny, Sergiusz J.

    2015-01-01

    The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is a prevalent invasive species throughout Lake Michigan, as well as other Laurentian Great Lakes, yet little information is available on spatial variation in round goby growth within one body of water. Age and growth of round goby at three areas of Lake Michigan were studied by otolith analysis from a sample of 659 specimens collected from 2008 to 2012. Total length (TL) ranged from 48 to 131 mm for Sturgeon Bay, from 50 to 125 mm for Waukegan, and from 54 to 129 mm for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Ages ranged from 2 to 7 years for Sturgeon Bay, from 2 to 5 years for Waukegan, and from 2 to 6 years for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Area-specific and sex-specific body–otolith relationships were used to back-calculate estimates of total length at age, which were fitted to von Bertalanffy models to estimate growth rates. For both sexes, round gobies at Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan grew significantly faster than those at Sturgeon Bay. However, round goby growth did not significantly differ between Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan for either sex. At all three areas of Lake Michigan, males grew significantly faster than females. Based on catch curve analysis, estimates of annual mortality rates ranged from 0.79 to 0.84. These relatively high mortality rates suggested that round gobies may be under predatory control in Lake Michigan.

  20. Estimation of forensic age using substages of ossification of the medial clavicle in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Inci, Ercan; Can, Ismail Ozgur; Aksoy, Sema; Sayin, Ibrahim

    2015-11-01

    Forensic age estimation based on staging of ossification of the medial clavicular bone is one of the methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics of the German Association of Forensic Medicine. In the present study, we analyzed the stages of ossification of the medial clavicular epiphyses on thin-sliced (1 mm) computed tomography (CT) images using the substages defined within stages 2 and 3. The retrospective CT analysis involved 193 subjects (129 males, 64 females) ranging in age from 13 to 28 years. Spearman's correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between age and ossification stage in both male and female subjects. Stage 3c was first observed at 19 years of age in both sexes and may thus serve as a valuable forensic marker for determining an age of 18 years. Although further research is needed on the ossification stages of the medial clavicular epiphyses, the present findings could contribute to existing reports on observers' experiences using CT analysis of ossification combined with analysis of substages.

  1. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged <50 years. Data were extracted from IMS' PharMetrics Plus claims database for patients with a diagnosis of pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged <1 year. Method 2 gave an average annual projected incidence of 21/100,000. Method 3 gave an overall regression-estimated weighted annual incidence of pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged <50 years and provide further evidence that the majority of cases go undetected, especially with increasing age, may aid in the development of public health programs to reduce pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  2. Striking effect of time variation in the estimation of groundwater age in the Wairarapa valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrus, Karine; Toews, Michael; Daughney, Christopher; Cornaton, Fabien

    2014-05-01

    The Wairarapa Valley exhibits complex interactions between its rivers and shallow aquifers. With agriculture being an essential part of the region the risk of contamination and depletion of groundwater exists. In order to assist with water resource management in the region, we can do predictions with the help of numerical models. Among these predictions, the evaluation of groundwater age is critical for decision making. This project builds on work done by Greater Wellington Regional Council and will focus on the Wairarapa Valley. The aim of this study is to evaluate the age of the groundwater in the Wairarapa region. Investigations have already been done thanks to hydrochemistry. However radiometric age can be misleading in the sense that it does not consider the mixing process in the motion of groundwater particules. Therefore another approach can be considered .This latter is physic based by considering the age as a property that we transport through two main processes: advection at a macroscopic scale and diffusion at a microscopic scale. The determination of the distribution age by this approach has already been done for the Lake Rotorua but in the steady state case (cf Daughney). The unique contribution of the present study is to estimate the changes in groundwater age distribution through time within the region. Indeed transient simulations are needed to explicitly account for seasonally variable rainfall and pumping wells. This affects the simulated flow solution and then the simulated age solution. In order to solve numerically the transport of age distribution we have chosen to use the Time Marching Laplace Transform Galerkin technique which has been developed in a research code by Fabien Cornaton. The obtained results depict that temporal variations in groundwater age are present and have important implication for resource management

  3. New age estimates for the Palaeolithic assemblages and Pleistocene succession of Casablanca, Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, E. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Raynal, J.-P.; Westaway, K. E.; Sbihi-Alaoui, F. Z.

    2006-10-01

    Marine and aeolian Quaternary sediments from Casablanca, Morocco were dated using the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal of quartz grains. These sediments form part of an extensive succession spanning the Pleistocene, and contain a rich faunal and archaeological record, including an Acheulian lithic assemblage from before the Brunhes-Matayama boundary, and a Homo erectus jaw from younger cave deposits. Sediment samples from the sites of Reddad Ben Ali, Oulad J'mel, Sidi Abderhamane and Thomas Quarries have been dated, in order to assess the upper limits of OSL. The revision of previously measured mammalian tooth enamel electron spin resonance (ESR) dates from the Grotte des Rhinocéros, Oulad Hamida Quarry 1, incorporating updated environmental dose rate measurements and attenuation calculations, also provide chronological constraint for the archaeological material preserved at Thomas Quarries. Several OSL age estimates extend back to around 500,000 years, with a single sample providing an OSL age close to 1 Ma in magnetically reversed sediments. These luminescence dates are some of the oldest determined, and their reliability is assessed using both internal criteria based on stratigraphic consistency, and external lithostratigraphic, morphostratigraphic and independent chronological constraints. For most samples, good internal agreement is observed using single aliquot regenerative-dose OSL measurements, while multiple aliquot additive-dose measurements generally have poorer resolution and consistency. Novel slow-component and component-resolved OSL approaches applied to four samples provide significantly enhanced dating precision, and an examination of the degree of signal zeroing at deposition. A comparison of the OSL age estimates with the updated ESR dates and one U-series date demonstrate that this method has great potential for providing reliable age estimates for sediments of this antiquity. We consider the cause of some slight age inversion

  4. Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus)

    PubMed Central

    Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J.

    2016-01-01

    African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6–24 months; 25–60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a

  5. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  6. Comparison of accuracy between dental and skeletal age in the estimation of chronological age of Down syndrome individuals.

    PubMed

    Hala, Leila Abou; Moraes, Mari Eli Leonelli de; Villaça-Carvalho, Maria Fernanda Lima; de Castro Lopes, Sérgio Lúcio Pereira; Gamba, Thiago de Oliveira

    2016-09-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of dental age (DA) and skeletal age (SA) methods in order to estimate chronological age (CA) in individuals with Down syndrome (DS), contributing to the Forensic Dentistry and making the identification of these individuals age possible. For this, 278 images of individuals were selected and divided in 2 groups: 216 non-DS patients and 62 with DS. At first, DA was evaluated by Nolla method, on panoramic radiographs, followed by SA, evaluated by Greulich and Pyle method. The linear correlation coefficient of Pearson was used for the analysis of concordance between the methods. Paired t-test with confidence interval was used to evaluate the accuracy and Bland and Altman method was applied to estimate limits of concordance. Complementary to this first analysis, descriptive statistics and ANOVA test were applied for comparison among chronological age (CA), dental age (DA) and skeletal age (SA), with a significance level of 95% (p≥0.05), ordering to observe the differences among them. DA, estimated by Nolla, is underestimated in both, DS and non-DS individuals, and it is more notable in DS individuals. SA estimated by Greulich and Pyle method is overestimated, except for non-DS males. The range of variance is greater in SA and DS than DA and non-DS individuals, respectively. A greater accordance was found for DA×CA if compared to SA×CA, indicating that DA, estimated by Nolla method, is more accurate than SA, evaluated by Greulich and Pyle method, for estimating CA of both, DS and non-DS individuals. However, neither method seems to be precise and more caution is required for age estimation in DS individuals. PMID:27426840

  7. Comparison of accuracy between dental and skeletal age in the estimation of chronological age of Down syndrome individuals.

    PubMed

    Hala, Leila Abou; Moraes, Mari Eli Leonelli de; Villaça-Carvalho, Maria Fernanda Lima; de Castro Lopes, Sérgio Lúcio Pereira; Gamba, Thiago de Oliveira

    2016-09-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of dental age (DA) and skeletal age (SA) methods in order to estimate chronological age (CA) in individuals with Down syndrome (DS), contributing to the Forensic Dentistry and making the identification of these individuals age possible. For this, 278 images of individuals were selected and divided in 2 groups: 216 non-DS patients and 62 with DS. At first, DA was evaluated by Nolla method, on panoramic radiographs, followed by SA, evaluated by Greulich and Pyle method. The linear correlation coefficient of Pearson was used for the analysis of concordance between the methods. Paired t-test with confidence interval was used to evaluate the accuracy and Bland and Altman method was applied to estimate limits of concordance. Complementary to this first analysis, descriptive statistics and ANOVA test were applied for comparison among chronological age (CA), dental age (DA) and skeletal age (SA), with a significance level of 95% (p≥0.05), ordering to observe the differences among them. DA, estimated by Nolla, is underestimated in both, DS and non-DS individuals, and it is more notable in DS individuals. SA estimated by Greulich and Pyle method is overestimated, except for non-DS males. The range of variance is greater in SA and DS than DA and non-DS individuals, respectively. A greater accordance was found for DA×CA if compared to SA×CA, indicating that DA, estimated by Nolla method, is more accurate than SA, evaluated by Greulich and Pyle method, for estimating CA of both, DS and non-DS individuals. However, neither method seems to be precise and more caution is required for age estimation in DS individuals.

  8. Impact of age, sleep pressure and circadian phase on time-of-day estimates.

    PubMed

    Späti, Jakub; Münch, Mirjam; Blatter, Katharina; Knoblauch, Vera; Jones, Luke A; Cajochen, Christian

    2009-07-19

    Orientation and self-location within the temporal fabric of the environment involves multiple organismic systems. While temporal self-location on the physiological level has been known for some time to be based on a 'biological clock' located within the hypothalamus, the mechanisms that participate in temporal position finding on the cognitive level are not yet fully understood. In order to probe the mechanisms that underlie this faculty, verbal estimates on time-of-day were collected at 3.75-h intervals from 16 young (7 males, 8 females; 20-31 years) and 16 older (8 males, 8 females; 57-74 years) subjects in a balanced crossover design during 40-h epochs of prolonged wakefulness and 40-h epochs of sleep satiation spent under constant routine conditions. An overestimation of clock time during prolonged wakefulness was found in both age-groups, with significantly larger errors for the older group (young: 0.5+/-0.2h; older: 1.5+/-0.2h, p<0.05). In both age-groups, estimation errors ran roughly parallel to the time course of core body temperature. However a significant interaction between time-of-day and age-group was observed (rANOVA, p<0.05): younger subjects exhibited similar estimation errors as the older subjects after 16 h of prior wakefulness, whereas the latter did not manifest decrements under high sleep pressure. Data collected under conditions of sleep satiation also displayed a diurnal oscillation in estimation errors and a general overestimation (young: 0.8+/-0.2h; older: 1.3+/-0.3h, p<0.05). Here however, the age-groups did not differ significantly nor was there an interactive effect between time-of-day and age-group. The effects of age, duration of wake time and circadian phase on temporal position finding are in line with predictions based on the idea that awareness about current position in time is derived from interval timing processes.

  9. Canine pulp ratios in estimating pensionable age in subjects with questionable documents of identification.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi

    2011-03-20

    One of the most interesting reasons for needing to estimate age in adult subjects is to ascertain the age of a person of questionable pensionable age. This problem is becoming increasingly important in Europe, owing to the high number of immigrants without valid birth certificates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the application of the apposition of secondary dentine of canines by the method of Cameriere et al. [10], in order to estimate the pensionable age of subjects without proper birth certificates. Periapical X-rays of 180 canines from 90 subjects aged between 50 and 79, 46 men and 44 women, were analysed. Estimated ages were used to test the medico-legal question as to whether an individual was older or younger than 65 years of age. In subjects under 65, age was correctly evaluated in 91% and 89% of individuals using maxillary and mandibular canines, respectively. In subjects over 65, of pensionable age, estimates were correct in 85% and 88% of cases, respectively. The proportion of individuals with correct classifications was 89% for both maxillary and mandibular canines taken together. In only four subjects, the results of maxillary and mandibular canines were discordant; in the other 86 subjects, the test of maxillary and mandibular canines yielded concordant results. Among the latter, the proportion of individuals who were really aged 65 years or older, and who were correctly estimated as such, was 94%, and the proportion of individuals younger than 65 years of age who were correctly estimated as such was 96%.

  10. Adult forensic age estimation using mandibular first molar radiographs: A novel technique

    PubMed Central

    Mathew, Deepu George; Rajesh, S; Koshi, Elizabeth; Priya, Lakshmi E; Nair, Amal S; Mohan, Aparna

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To develop an independent procedure for estimating age for Indian individuals using radiographs of multi-rooted posterior teeth with accuracy needed in forensic age prediction. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomography (OPG) was obtained for 88 subjects. The subjects were divided into two sub sets; study subset (n = 60) which were used to find regression formula to calculate the age from pulp chamber height and test subset (n = 28) which were used to test the accuracy of this formula. Results: There was a statistically significant strong correlation between chronological age and pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratio (r = −0.56; P = 0.000). The regression equation for estimating the age, derived from the study subset was estimated age = −100.920 (PCTHR) +55.415. (PCTHR is the pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratio). This equation was applied on the test subset and there was no significant difference between estimated ages and chronological ages (P = 0.639). The mean absolute error (MAE) was 6.96 years, which was within acceptable error limits for forensic age estimation (<±10 years). Conclusion: The procedure developed to estimate the age using height reduction in pulp chamber was found to be fairly accurate to perform forensic age prediction in Indian individuals. PMID:23960417

  11. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  12. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  13. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  14. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  15. Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

    2015-01-01

    Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

  16. The lateral clavicular epiphysis: fusion timing and age estimation.

    PubMed

    Langley, Natalie R

    2016-03-01

    This study utilizes a forensic autopsy sample of twentieth century American Whites (the McCormick Clavicle Collection) to describe the morphology, variation, and fusion timing of the lateral clavicle epiphysis. Clavicles from individuals between 11 and 25 years at the time of death were used to document fusion of the lateral epiphysis (n= 133, 38 females and 95 males). The lateral epiphysis was scored as unfused, fusing, or fused. A linear weighted kappa indicates that this scoring method is highly replicable with almost perfect inter-rater agreement (kappa = 0.849), according to a widely used standard for assessing kappa values. Transition analysis, or probit regression, was employed to quantify fusion timing of the lateral epiphysis. The transition from "unfused" to "fusing" is most likely to occur at 16.5 years in females and 17.5 years in males. The transition from "fusing" to "fused" occurs at age 21 in females and age 20 in males. The earliest age at which fusion began was 15 years (n = 1), but the majority began fusing between 17 and 20 years. Most individuals (98.5 % of the sample) aged >24 years had fused lateral epiphyses. The epiphysis assumes one of two forms: (1) a separate bony flake fusing to the diaphysis or (2) a mound of bone glazing/smoothing over the diaphyseal surface. As socioeconomic status has been cited as the most influential variable on skeletal maturation rates, the fusion ages offered here should not be applied to populations with a socioeconomic status different from the greater US population.

  17. Radiologic assessment of third molar tooth and spheno-occipital synchondrosis for age estimation: a multiple regression analysis study.

    PubMed

    Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan

    2016-05-01

    For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P < 0.001) and also between age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P < 0.001). Based on the results obtained, an age determination formula using these scores was established.

  18. A case of an adoptive girl with precocious puberty: the problem of age estimation.

    PubMed

    De Donno, Antonio; Roca, Roberta; Introna, Francesco; Santoro, Valeria

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is one of the main tasks of forensic anthropology and odontology, both on the dead and the living. In living subjects, age estimation may be used to establish an individual's status as a minor in cases involving adoption, criminal responsibility, child pornography, and those seeking asylum, especially where adequate identification documents are lacking. The authors report a case about age assessment of a girl born in Mbujimayi (Democratic Republic of Congo) and later adopted in Italy. The birth certificate issued after finding the child in a state of abandonment (in December 2007), bore date of 12.12.2004, but this was in contrast with the year of birth - 2003 - stated on the certification available to the center that had provided accommodation to the girl in Africa. Her adoptive parents reported that the child had been diagnosed with precocious puberty and was thus under treatment. She weighed 32.5 kg and was 132.5 cm tall. Body mass index (BMI) corresponded to the range between 9.5 and 14 years of age. The assessment of maturity indicators (sexual characteristics) placed the child at the lower limits of Stage II of Tanner's classification (sparse growth of long, slightly darkened, downy straight pubic hair; elevation of the breast and nipple as a small mound with increased diameter of the areolae). The skeletal age was determined by taking X-rays of the hand and wrist using Fels, TW2 and Greulich and Pyle methods. Dental growth was assessed through orthopantomogram using Demirjian's technique. The methods applied were adjusted considering the studies on African population found in the literature, and a skeletal and dental age of 10 years was established. Afterwards, the wrist X-rays performed at the Children's Hospital of Bari, 7 months before our investigation, revealed a skeletal age of 7 years. This evidence showed that, despite the treatment the child had promptly initiated, early puberty had influenced the skeletal growth with an acceleration

  19. A simple method for estimating informative node age priors for the fossil calibration of molecular divergence time analyses.

    PubMed

    Nowak, Michael D; Smith, Andrew B; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J

    2013-01-01

    Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates.

  20. Estimating Modifying Effect of Age on Genetic and Environmental Variance Components in Twin Models.

    PubMed

    He, Liang; Sillanpää, Mikko J; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko; Pitkäniemi, Janne

    2016-04-01

    Twin studies have been adopted for decades to disentangle the relative genetic and environmental contributions for a wide range of traits. However, heritability estimation based on the classical twin models does not take into account dynamic behavior of the variance components over age. Varying variance of the genetic component over age can imply the existence of gene-environment (G×E) interactions that general genome-wide association studies (GWAS) fail to capture, which may lead to the inconsistency of heritability estimates between twin design and GWAS. Existing parametricG×Einteraction models for twin studies are limited by assuming a linear or quadratic form of the variance curves with respect to a moderator that can, however, be overly restricted in reality. Here we propose spline-based approaches to explore the variance curves of the genetic and environmental components. We choose the additive genetic, common, and unique environmental variance components (ACE) model as the starting point. We treat the component variances as variance functions with respect to age modeled by B-splines or P-splines. We develop an empirical Bayes method to estimate the variance curves together with their confidence bands and provide an R package for public use. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately capture dynamic behavior of the component variances in terms of mean square errors with a data set of >10,000 twin pairs. Using the proposed methods as an alternative and major extension to the classical twin models, our analyses with a large-scale Finnish twin data set (19,510 MZ twins and 27,312 DZ same-sex twins) discover that the variances of the A, C, and E components for body mass index (BMI) change substantially across life span in different patterns and the heritability of BMI drops to ∼50% after middle age. The results further indicate that the decline of heritability is due to increasing unique environmental variance, which provides more

  1. Applicability of Greulich-Pyle and Tanner-Whitehouse grading methods to MRI when assessing hand bone age in forensic age estimation: A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Urschler, Martin; Krauskopf, Astrid; Widek, Thomas; Sorantin, Erich; Ehammer, Thomas; Borkenstein, Martin; Yen, Kathrin; Scheurer, Eva

    2016-09-01

    Determination of skeletal development is a key pillar in forensic age estimation of living persons. Radiological assessment of hand bone age is widely used until the age of about 17-18 years, applying visual grading techniques to hand radiographs. This study investigated whether Greulich-Pyle (GP) and Tanner-Whitehouse (TW2) grading can be equally used for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, which would offer the huge benefit of avoiding ionizing radiation. In 18 subjects aged between 7 and 17 years a radiograph and an MRI scan of the hand were performed. Epiphyseal ossification of hand bones was rated by two blinded radiologists with both GP and TW2. Correlation between hand MRIs and radiographs was analyzed by linear regression and inter-observer agreement was assessed. Correlation between age estimates from MRI and radiographs was high for both GP (r(2)=0.98) and TW2 (r(2)=0.93). MRI showed a tendency to estimate age slightly lower for 14-18 year-olds, which would be favorable regarding majority age determination in case this result could be reproduced using a currently not existing reference estimation method based on MRI data. Inter-observer agreement was similar for GP in radiographs and MRI, while for TW2, agreement in MRI was lower than in radiographs. In spite of limitations regarding sample size and recruited subjects, our results indicate that the use of GP and TW2 on MRI data offers the possibility of hand bone age estimation without the need for ionizing radiation. PMID:27344264

  2. Applicability of Greulich-Pyle and Tanner-Whitehouse grading methods to MRI when assessing hand bone age in forensic age estimation: A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Urschler, Martin; Krauskopf, Astrid; Widek, Thomas; Sorantin, Erich; Ehammer, Thomas; Borkenstein, Martin; Yen, Kathrin; Scheurer, Eva

    2016-09-01

    Determination of skeletal development is a key pillar in forensic age estimation of living persons. Radiological assessment of hand bone age is widely used until the age of about 17-18 years, applying visual grading techniques to hand radiographs. This study investigated whether Greulich-Pyle (GP) and Tanner-Whitehouse (TW2) grading can be equally used for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, which would offer the huge benefit of avoiding ionizing radiation. In 18 subjects aged between 7 and 17 years a radiograph and an MRI scan of the hand were performed. Epiphyseal ossification of hand bones was rated by two blinded radiologists with both GP and TW2. Correlation between hand MRIs and radiographs was analyzed by linear regression and inter-observer agreement was assessed. Correlation between age estimates from MRI and radiographs was high for both GP (r(2)=0.98) and TW2 (r(2)=0.93). MRI showed a tendency to estimate age slightly lower for 14-18 year-olds, which would be favorable regarding majority age determination in case this result could be reproduced using a currently not existing reference estimation method based on MRI data. Inter-observer agreement was similar for GP in radiographs and MRI, while for TW2, agreement in MRI was lower than in radiographs. In spite of limitations regarding sample size and recruited subjects, our results indicate that the use of GP and TW2 on MRI data offers the possibility of hand bone age estimation without the need for ionizing radiation.

  3. RESEARCH PAPER: Old stellar population synthesis: new age and mass estimates for Mayall II = G1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jun; de Grijs, Richard; Fan, Zhou; Rey, Soo-Chang; Wu, Zhen-Yu; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jiang-Hua; Jiang, Zhao-Ji; Chen, Jian-Sheng; Lee, Kyungsook; Sohn, Sangmo Tony

    2009-06-01

    Mayall II = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters (GCs) in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKS 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000 Å. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population (SSP) models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ~1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates (of order 107 Modot) indicate that G1 is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster's exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, (1.65±0.63) × 102 Lodot far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.

  4. Estimating the age of formation of lakes: An example from Lake Tanganyika, East African Rift system

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, A.; Soreghan, M.J.; Scholz, C.A.

    1993-06-01

    Age estimates for ancient lakes are important for determining their histories and their rates of biotic and tectonic evolution. In the absence of dated core material from the lake`s sedimentary basement, several techniques have been used to generate such age estimates. The most common of these, herein called the reflection seismic-radiocarbon method (RSRM), combines estimates of short-term sediment-accumulation rates derived from radiocarbon-dated cores and depth-to-basement estimates derived from reflection-seismic data at or near the same locality to estimate an age to basement. Age estimates form the RSRM suggest that the structural basins of central Lake Tanganyika began to form between 9 and 12 Ma. Estimates for the northern and southern basins are younger (7 to 8 Ma and 2 to 4 Ma, respectively). The diachroneity of estimates for different segments of the lake is equivocal, and may be due to erosional loss of record in the northern and southern structural basins or to progressive opening of the rift. The RSRM age estimates for Lake Tanganyika are considerably younger than most prior estimates and clarify the extensional history of the western branch of the East African Rift system. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  5. [Forensic age estimation in juveniles and young adults: Reducing the range of scatter in age diagnosis by combining different methods].

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Sven; Schramm, Danilo; Ribbecke, Sebastian; Schulz, Ronald; Wittschieber, Daniel; Olze, Andreas; Vieth, Volker; Ramsthaler, H Frank; Pfischel, Klaus; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice. PMID:26934764

  6. Postnatal growth and age estimation in Scotophilus kuhlii.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shiang-Fan; Huang, Shang-Shang; Lu, Dau-Jye; Shen, Tsung-Jen

    2016-01-01

    Adequate postnatal growth is important for young bats to develop skilled sensory and locomotor abilities, which are highly associated with their survival once independent. This study investigated the postnatal growth and development of Scotophilus kuhlii in captivity. An empirical growth curve was established, and the postnatal growth rate was quantified to derive an age-predictive equation. By further controlling the fostering conditions of twins, the differences in the development patterns between pups that received maternal care or were hand-reared were analyzed to determine whether the latter developed in the same manner as their maternally reared counterparts. Our results indicate that both forearm length and body mass increased rapidly and linearly during the first 4 weeks, after which the growth rate gradually decreased to reach a stable level. The first flight occurred at an average age of 39 days with a mean forearm length and body mass of 92.07% and 70.52% of maternal size, respectively. The developmental pattern of hand-reared pups, although similar to that of their maternally reared twin siblings, displayed a slightly faster growth rate in the 4th and 5th weeks. The heavier body mass of hand-reared pups during the pre-fledging period may cause higher wing loading, potentially influencing the flight performance and survival of the bats once independent. PMID:26600428

  7. Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

    PubMed

    Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

    2012-12-01

    The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone. PMID:23474507

  8. Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

    PubMed

    Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

    2012-12-01

    The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

  9. Knowledge Based Estimation of Material Release Transients

    1998-07-29

    KBERT is an easy to use desktop decision support tool for estimating public and in-facility worker doses and consequences of radioactive material releases in non-reactort nuclear facilities. It automatically calculates release and respirable fractions based on published handbook data, and calculates material transport concurrently with personnel evacuation simulations. Any facility layout can be modeled easily using the intuitive graphical user interface.

  10. The utility of near infrared spectroscopy for age estimation of deepwater sharks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigby, Cassandra L.; Wedding, Brett B.; Grauf, Steve; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable age information is vital for effective fisheries management, yet age determinations are absent for many deepwater sharks as they cannot be aged using traditional methods of growth bands counts. An alternative approach to ageing using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated using dorsal fin spines, vertebrae and fin clips of three species of deepwater sharks. Ages were successfully estimated for the two dogfish, Squalus megalops and Squalus montalbani, and NIRS spectra were correlated with body size in the catshark, Asymbolus pallidus. Correlations between estimated-ages of the dogfish dorsal fin spines and their NIRS spectra were good, with S. megalops R2=0.82 and S. montalbani R2=0.73. NIRS spectra from S. megalops vertebrae and fin clips that have no visible growth bands were correlated with estimated-ages, with R2=0.89 and 0.76, respectively. NIRS has the capacity to non-lethally estimate ages from fin spines and fin clips, and thus could significantly reduce the numbers of sharks that need to be lethally sampled for ageing studies. The detection of ageing materials by NIRS in poorly calcified deepwater shark vertebrae could potentially enable ageing of this group of sharks that are vulnerable to exploitation.

  11. Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

    PubMed

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2011-01-01

    Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies.

  12. Accuracy of Four Dental Age Estimation Methods in Southern Indian Children

    PubMed Central

    Sanghvi, Praveen; Perumalla, Kiran Kumar; Srinivasaraju, D.; Srinivas, Jami; Kalyan, U. Siva; Rasool, SK. Md. Iftekhar

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: For various forensic investigations of both living and dead individuals, the knowledge of the actual age or date of birth of the subject is of utmost importance. In recent years, age estimation has gained importance for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. Developing teeth are used to assess maturity and estimate age in number of disciplines; however the accuracy of different methods has not been assessed systematically. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of four dental age estimation methods. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomographs (OPGS) of South Indian children between the ages of 6 and 16 y who visited the department of Department of Oral medicine and Radiology of GITAM Dental College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India with similar ethnic origin were assessed. Dental age was calculated using Demirjian, Willems, Nolla, and adopted Haavikko methods and the difference between estimated dental age and chronological age were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: An overestimation of the dental age was observed by using Demirjian and Nolla methods (0.1±1.63, 0.47±0.83 years in total sample respectively) and an underestimation of dental age was observed by using Willems and Haavikko methods (-0.4±1.53, -2.9±1.41 years respectively in total sample). Conclusion: Nolla’s method was more accurate in estimating dental age compared to other methods. Moreover, all the four methods were found to be reliable in estimating age of individuals of unknown chronological age in South Indian children. PMID:25738008

  13. Modeling Bone Surface Morphology: A Fully Quantitative Method for Age-at-Death Estimation Using the Pubic Symphysis.

    PubMed

    Slice, Dennis E; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B

    2015-07-01

    The pubic symphysis is widely used in age estimation for the adult skeleton. Standard practice requires the visual comparison of surface morphology against criteria representing predefined phases and the estimation of case-specific age from an age range associated with the chosen phase. Known problems of method and observer error necessitate alternative tools to quantify age-related change in pubic morphology. This paper presents an objective, fully quantitative method for estimating age-at-death from the skeleton, which exploits a variance-based score of surface complexity computed from vertices obtained from a scanner sampling the pubic symphysis. For laser scans from 41 modern American male skeletons, this method produces results that are significantly associated with known age-at-death (RMSE = 17.15 years). Chronological age is predicted, therefore, equally well, if not, better, with this robust, objective, and fully quantitative method than with prevailing phase-aging systems. This method contributes to forensic casework by responding to medico-legal expectations for evidence standards.

  14. [Problems associated with chronological age estimation of children exploited in child pornography production].

    PubMed

    Bednarek, Jarosław

    2006-01-01

    Chronological age assessment of young persons featuring in pornographic pictures and videos is crucial to prove a violation of law. The paper discusses possibilities of and difficulties inherent in age estimation in cases of production and distribution of child pornography. The presented problems were divided into technical and individual development-associated issues. Technical difficulties included lack of a reference system for biological features reconstruction, poor quality and resolution of pictures or movies, pictures retouching and photomontage. The author stressed that biological hindrances in age assessment were the consequences of interpersonal variation of developmental patterns, namely overlapping of ranges typical for feature values at particular ages and biological variations between different human populations. The described problems can render age estimation impossible or far from precise. Developing more accurate methods of estimating age from pictures and videos requires the collaboration of specialists in the field of auxology, anthropology, pediatrics, as well as experts in photography and video techniques. PMID:17131758

  15. The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data.

    PubMed Central

    Grenfell, B. T.; Anderson, R. M.

    1985-01-01

    The paper describes a maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of age-related changes in the per capita rate of infection, from case notification records or serological data. The methods are applied to records of measles incidence in the UK and USA, for which the estimated rates of infection tend to rise to a maximum value at around 10 years of age and then to decline in the older age-classes. Longer-term and seasonal trends are analysed by reference to changes in the estimated average age at infection; a statistic derived from a knowledge of the age-specific rates of infection. Future data needs in the epidemiological study of directly transmitted viral and bacterial diseases are discussed with reference to the detection and interpretation of age-dependent rates of disease transmission. PMID:4067297

  16. [Problems associated with chronological age estimation of children exploited in child pornography production].

    PubMed

    Bednarek, Jarosław

    2006-01-01

    Chronological age assessment of young persons featuring in pornographic pictures and videos is crucial to prove a violation of law. The paper discusses possibilities of and difficulties inherent in age estimation in cases of production and distribution of child pornography. The presented problems were divided into technical and individual development-associated issues. Technical difficulties included lack of a reference system for biological features reconstruction, poor quality and resolution of pictures or movies, pictures retouching and photomontage. The author stressed that biological hindrances in age assessment were the consequences of interpersonal variation of developmental patterns, namely overlapping of ranges typical for feature values at particular ages and biological variations between different human populations. The described problems can render age estimation impossible or far from precise. Developing more accurate methods of estimating age from pictures and videos requires the collaboration of specialists in the field of auxology, anthropology, pediatrics, as well as experts in photography and video techniques.

  17. An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

    2011-01-01

    Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

  18. Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, J.L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

    1997-01-01

    We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

  19. Model-based estimation of knee stiffness.

    PubMed

    Pfeifer, Serge; Vallery, Heike; Hardegger, Michael; Riener, Robert; Perreault, Eric J

    2012-09-01

    During natural locomotion, the stiffness of the human knee is modulated continuously and subconsciously according to the demands of activity and terrain. Given modern actuator technology, powered transfemoral prostheses could theoretically provide a similar degree of sophistication and function. However, experimentally quantifying knee stiffness modulation during natural gait is challenging. Alternatively, joint stiffness could be estimated in a less disruptive manner using electromyography (EMG) combined with kinetic and kinematic measurements to estimate muscle force, together with models that relate muscle force to stiffness. Here we present the first step in that process, where we develop such an approach and evaluate it in isometric conditions, where experimental measurements are more feasible. Our EMG-guided modeling approach allows us to consider conditions with antagonistic muscle activation, a phenomenon commonly observed in physiological gait. Our validation shows that model-based estimates of knee joint stiffness coincide well with experimental data obtained using conventional perturbation techniques. We conclude that knee stiffness can be accurately estimated in isometric conditions without applying perturbations, which presents an important step toward our ultimate goal of quantifying knee stiffness during gait.

  20. Model-Based Estimation of Knee Stiffness

    PubMed Central

    Pfeifer, Serge; Vallery, Heike; Hardegger, Michael; Riener, Robert; Perreault, Eric J.

    2013-01-01

    During natural locomotion, the stiffness of the human knee is modulated continuously and subconsciously according to the demands of activity and terrain. Given modern actuator technology, powered transfemoral prostheses could theoretically provide a similar degree of sophistication and function. However, experimentally quantifying knee stiffness modulation during natural gait is challenging. Alternatively, joint stiffness could be estimated in a less disruptive manner using electromyography (EMG) combined with kinetic and kinematic measurements to estimate muscle force, together with models that relate muscle force to stiffness. Here we present the first step in that process, where we develop such an approach and evaluate it in isometric conditions, where experimental measurements are more feasible. Our EMG-guided modeling approach allows us to consider conditions with antagonistic muscle activation, a phenomenon commonly observed in physiological gait. Our validation shows that model-based estimates of knee joint stiffness coincide well with experimental data obtained using conventional perturbation techniques. We conclude that knee stiffness can be accurately estimated in isometric conditions without applying perturbations, which presents an important step towards our ultimate goal of quantifying knee stiffness during gait. PMID:22801482

  1. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691

  2. The accuracy of three methods of age estimation using radiographic measurements of developing teeth.

    PubMed

    Liversidge, H M; Lyons, F; Hector, M P

    2003-01-01

    The accuracy of age estimation using three quantitative methods of developing permanent teeth was investigated. These were Mörnstad et al. [Scand. J. Dent. Res. 102 (1994) 137], Liversidge and Molleson [J. For. Sci. 44 (1999) 917] and Carels et al. [J. Biol. Bucc. 19 (1991) 297]. The sample consisted of 145 white Caucasian children (75 girls, 70 boys) aged between 8 and 13 years. Tooth length and apex width of mandibular canine, premolars and first and second molars were measured from orthopantomographs using a digitiser. These data were substituted into equations from the three methods and estimated age was calculated and compared to chronological age. Age was under-estimated in boys and girls using all the three methods; the mean difference between chronological and estimated ages for method I was -0.83 (standard deviation +/-0.96) years for boys and -0.67 (+/-0.76) years for girls; method II -0.79 (+/-0.93) and -0.63 (+/-0.92); method III -1.03 (+/-1.48) and -1.35 (+/-1.11) for boys and girls, respectively. Further analysis of age cohorts, found the most accurate method to be method I for the age group 8.00-8.99 years where age could be predicted to 0.14+/-0.44 years (boys) and 0.10+/-0.32 years (girls). Accuracy was greater for younger children compared to older children and this decreased with age.

  3. Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

    PubMed

    López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

    2015-03-01

    Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

  4. Estimation of gestational age, using neonatal anthropometry: a cross-sectional study in India.

    PubMed

    Thawani, Rajat; Dewan, Pooja; Faridi, M M A; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

    2013-12-01

    Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R = 0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R = 0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks) = 5.437 x W-0.781 x W(2) + 2.815 x HC-0.041 x HC(2) + 0.285 x MUAC-22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R = 0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46

  5. Estimation of Gestational Age, Using Neonatal Anthropometry: A Cross-sectional Study in India

    PubMed Central

    Thawani, Rajat; Faridi, M.M.A.; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

    2013-01-01

    Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R=0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R=0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks)=5.437×W–0.781×W2+2.815×HC–0.041×HC2+0.285×MUAC–22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R=0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46% (±1 week), 75

  6. Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    SciTech Connect

    Pittenger, D.B.

    1992-02-01

    The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.

  7. Estimation of age-at-death for adult males using the acetabulum, applied to four Western European populations.

    PubMed

    Rissech, Carme; Estabrook, George F; Cunha, Eugenia; Malgosa, Assumpció

    2007-07-01

    Methods to estimate adult age from observations of skeletal elements are not very accurate and motivate the development of better methods. In this article, we test recently published method based on the acetabulum and Bayesian inference, developed using Coimbra collection (Portugal). In this study, to evaluate its utility in other populations, this methodology was applied to 394 specimens from four different documented Western European collections. Four strategies of analysis to estimate age were outlined: (a) each series separately; (b) on Lisbon collection, taken as a reference Coimbra collection; (c) on Barcelona collection, taken as a reference both Portuguese collections; and (d) on London collection taken as reference the three Iberian collections combined. Results indicate that estimates are accurate (83-100%). As might be expected, the least accurate estimates were obtained when the most distant collection was used as a reference. Observations of the fused acetabulum can be used to make accurate estimates of age for adults of any age, with less accurate estimates when a more distant reference collection is used.

  8. Rank-based camera spectral sensitivity estimation.

    PubMed

    Finlayson, Graham; Darrodi, Maryam Mohammadzadeh; Mackiewicz, Michal

    2016-04-01

    In order to accurately predict a digital camera response to spectral stimuli, the spectral sensitivity functions of its sensor need to be known. These functions can be determined by direct measurement in the lab-a difficult and lengthy procedure-or through simple statistical inference. Statistical inference methods are based on the observation that when a camera responds linearly to spectral stimuli, the device spectral sensitivities are linearly related to the camera rgb response values, and so can be found through regression. However, for rendered images, such as the JPEG images taken by a mobile phone, this assumption of linearity is violated. Even small departures from linearity can negatively impact the accuracy of the recovered spectral sensitivities, when a regression method is used. In our work, we develop a novel camera spectral sensitivity estimation technique that can recover the linear device spectral sensitivities from linear images and the effective linear sensitivities from rendered images. According to our method, the rank order of a pair of responses imposes a constraint on the shape of the underlying spectral sensitivity curve (of the sensor). Technically, each rank-pair splits the space where the underlying sensor might lie in two parts (a feasible region and an infeasible region). By intersecting the feasible regions from all the ranked-pairs, we can find a feasible region of sensor space. Experiments demonstrate that using rank orders delivers equal estimation to the prior art. However, the Rank-based method delivers a step-change in estimation performance when the data is not linear and, for the first time, allows for the estimation of the effective sensitivities of devices that may not even have "raw mode." Experiments validate our method. PMID:27140768

  9. Rank-based camera spectral sensitivity estimation.

    PubMed

    Finlayson, Graham; Darrodi, Maryam Mohammadzadeh; Mackiewicz, Michal

    2016-04-01

    In order to accurately predict a digital camera response to spectral stimuli, the spectral sensitivity functions of its sensor need to be known. These functions can be determined by direct measurement in the lab-a difficult and lengthy procedure-or through simple statistical inference. Statistical inference methods are based on the observation that when a camera responds linearly to spectral stimuli, the device spectral sensitivities are linearly related to the camera rgb response values, and so can be found through regression. However, for rendered images, such as the JPEG images taken by a mobile phone, this assumption of linearity is violated. Even small departures from linearity can negatively impact the accuracy of the recovered spectral sensitivities, when a regression method is used. In our work, we develop a novel camera spectral sensitivity estimation technique that can recover the linear device spectral sensitivities from linear images and the effective linear sensitivities from rendered images. According to our method, the rank order of a pair of responses imposes a constraint on the shape of the underlying spectral sensitivity curve (of the sensor). Technically, each rank-pair splits the space where the underlying sensor might lie in two parts (a feasible region and an infeasible region). By intersecting the feasible regions from all the ranked-pairs, we can find a feasible region of sensor space. Experiments demonstrate that using rank orders delivers equal estimation to the prior art. However, the Rank-based method delivers a step-change in estimation performance when the data is not linear and, for the first time, allows for the estimation of the effective sensitivities of devices that may not even have "raw mode." Experiments validate our method.

  10. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results.

  11. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results. PMID:26698389

  12. Skeletal age estimation in a contemporary Western Australian population using the Tanner-Whitehouse method.

    PubMed

    Maggio, Ariane; Flavel, Ambika; Hart, Rob; Franklin, Daniel

    2016-06-01

    Various age estimation techniques have been utilised in Australia to evaluate the age of individuals who do not have documentation to determine legal majority/culpability. These age estimation techniques rely on the assessment of skeletal development as visualised in radiographs, CT scans, MRI or ultrasound modalities, and subsequent comparison to reference standards. These standards are not always population specific and are thus known to be less accurate when applied outside of the original reference sample, leading to potential ethical implications. Therefore, the present study aims to: (i) explore the variation in developmental trajectories between the established Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) age estimation standards and a Western Australian population; and (ii) develop specific hand-wrist age estimation standards for the latter population. The present study examines digital anterior-posterior hand-wrist radiographs of 360 individuals 0 to 24.9 years of age, equally represented by sex. Each radiograph was assessed using the RUS, Carpal and 20-bone methods of Tanner et al. The standard error of the estimate (SEE) was calculated for each method (range: ♀ SEE ±0.4-11.5 years; ♂ SEE ±0.9-10.1 years). The most accurate method was TW3 RUS for females and the TW2 Carpal system for males. The 50th centile skeletal maturity scores for each year age group were plotted against average chronological age to produce polynomial regression standards with a demonstrated accuracy of (♀ SEE ±0.09-3.46 years; ♂ SEE ±0.02-3.42 years) for females and males, respectively. The standards presented here can be used in future forensic investigations that require age estimation of hand-wrist bones in a Western Australian population, however, they are not appropriate for establishing age of majority (18 years), as skeletal maturity was attained on average earlier than 15 years of age in both sexes for all three systems examined. PMID:27080619

  13. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in western Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Li, Guo; Ren, Jiayin; Zhao, Shuping; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Na; Wu, Wanhong; Yuan, Shanshan; Wang, Hu

    2012-06-10

    The purpose of this study is to provide reference data about estimating dental age from third molars of the western Chinese population for comparing with other populations and being applied to the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents. A total of 2078 digital panoramic radiographs of 989 male and 1089 female Chinese subjects aged between 5 and 23 years were examined. The mineralization status of the third molars was assessed using the formation stages described by Demirjian et al. with two modifications. The results showed that the development of third molars in the western Chinese population was likely to begin at age 5 in both males and females. The third molars 28 and 48 showed significantly higher frequency in females than in males. The third molars 18 in the stage 1, 38 in the stages 1, A and G, and 48 in the stage H showed significantly older average age in females than in males. The Demirjian's stages C and D could be used as a reference stage to determine dichotomously whether a western Chinese is more likely to be under or above age 14 or 16, respectively. This study provided reference data for the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents by the mineralization stages of the third molar. Apart from forensic age determination in living subjects, the presented reference data can also be used for age estimations of unidentified corpses and skeletons.

  14. Content-based image retrieval applied to bone age assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Benedikt; Brosig, André; Welter, Petra; Grouls, Christoph; Günther, Rolf W.; Deserno, Thomas M.

    2010-03-01

    Radiological bone age assessment is based on local image regions of interest (ROI), such as the epiphysis or the area of carpal bones. These are compared to a standardized reference and scores determining the skeletal maturity are calculated. For computer-aided diagnosis, automatic ROI extraction and analysis is done so far mainly by heuristic approaches. Due to high variations in the imaged biological material and differences in age, gender and ethnic origin, automatic analysis is difficult and frequently requires manual interactions. On the contrary, epiphyseal regions (eROIs) can be compared to previous cases with known age by content-based image retrieval (CBIR). This requires a sufficient number of cases with reliable positioning of the eROI centers. In this first approach to bone age assessment by CBIR, we conduct leaving-oneout experiments on 1,102 left hand radiographs and 15,428 metacarpal and phalangeal eROIs from the USC hand atlas. The similarity of the eROIs is assessed by cross-correlation of 16x16 scaled eROIs. The effects of the number of eROIs, two age computation methods as well as the number of considered CBIR references are analyzed. The best results yield an error rate of 1.16 years and a standard deviation of 0.85 years. As the appearance of the hand varies naturally by up to two years, these results clearly demonstrate the applicability of the CBIR approach for bone age estimation.

  15. Statistical methods to assess the reliability of measurements in the procedures for forensic age estimation.

    PubMed

    Ferrante, L; Cameriere, R

    2009-07-01

    In forensic science, anthropology, and archaeology, several techniques have been developed to estimate chronological age in both children and adults, using the relationship between age and morphological changes in the structure of teeth. Before implementing a statistical model to describe age as a function of the measured morphological variables, the reliability of the measurements of these variables must be evaluated using suitable statistical methods. This paper introduces some commonly used statistical methods for assessing the reliability of procedures for age estimation in the forensic field. The use of the concordance correlation coefficient and the intraclass correlation coefficient are explained. Finally, some pitfalls in the choice of the statistical methods to assess reliability of the measurements in age estimation are discussed.

  16. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).

  17. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw and Caswell, 1996).

  18. Dental Age Estimation: A Test of the Reliability of Correctly Identifying a Subject Over 18 Years of Age Using the Gold Standard of Chronological Age as the Comparator.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Victoria S; Andiappan, Manoharan; McDonald, Fraser; Roberts, Graham

    2016-09-01

    This study was designed to test the reliability of using the third molars to demarcate between child and adult status. A total of 2000 dental panoramic tomographs were used for assessment of the calculated age using the 8-stage system of tooth development and applied to all four third molars. The LL8 was also assessed using this 8-stage system. For each tooth development stage, the Normal distribution and percentile summary data were estimated. The calculated dental age compared with the chronological age was statistically significantly different (p < 0.001) for both females and males giving underestimates of the true age. Comparison of single tooth dental age and chronological age was only slightly different. The most important finding is that the assignment to above or below the 18-year threshold, in the age range 17 years to 19 years, could be wrong on up to 50% of occasions.

  19. Using a near-infrared spectrometer to estimate the age of Anopheles mosquitoes exposed to pyrethroids

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as ,7 or $7 d ol...

  20. Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population

    PubMed Central

    Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Study Design: Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. Results: The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. Conclusions: This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament. PMID:25674324

  1. Age determination by back length for African savanna elephants: extending age assessment techniques for aerial-based surveys.

    PubMed

    Trimble, Morgan J; van Aarde, Rudi J; Ferreira, Sam M; Nørgaard, Camilla F; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C; Moss, Cynthia J

    2011-01-01

    Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables.

  2. Age Determination by Back Length for African Savanna Elephants: Extending Age Assessment Techniques for Aerial-Based Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.; Ferreira, Sam M.; Nørgaard, Camilla F.; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C.; Moss, Cynthia J.

    2011-01-01

    Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables. PMID:22028925

  3. The Ages of A-Stars. I. Interferometric Observations and Age Estimates for Stars in the Ursa Major Moving Group

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Jeremy; White, R. J.; Boyajian, T.; Schaefer, G.; Baines, E.; Ireland, M.; Patience, J.; ten Brummelaar, T.; McAlister, H.; Ridgway, S. T.; Sturmann, J.; Sturmann, L.; Turner, N.; Farrington, C.; Goldfinger, P. J.

    2015-11-01

    We have observed and spatially resolved a set of seven A-type stars in the nearby Ursa Major moving group with the Classic, CLIMB, and PAVO beam combiners on the Center for High Angular Resolution Astronomy Array. At least four of these stars have large rotational velocities (v{sin}i ≳ 170 {km} {{{s}}}-1) and are expected to be oblate. These interferometric measurements, the stars’ observed photometric energy distributions, and v{sin}i values are used to computationally construct model oblate stars from which stellar properties (inclination, rotational velocity, and the radius and effective temperature as a function of latitude, etc.) are determined. The results are compared with MESA stellar evolution models to determine masses and ages. The value of this new technique is that it enables the estimation of the fundamental properties of rapidly rotating stars without the need to fully image the star. It can thus be applied to stars with sizes comparable to the interferometric resolution limit as opposed to those that are several times larger than the limit. Under the assumption of coevality, the spread in ages can be used as a test of both the prescription presented here and the MESA evolutionary code for rapidly rotating stars. With our validated technique, we combine these age estimates and determine the age of the moving group to be 414 ± 23 Myr, which is consistent with, but much more precise than previous estimates.

  4. Use of soil catena field data for estimating relative ages of moraines

    SciTech Connect

    Birkeland, P.W.; Berry, M.E. ); Swanson, D.K. )

    1991-03-01

    Soils at the crests of moraines are commonly used to estimate the relative ages of moraines. However, for various pedologic and geomorphic reasons, soil development at crest sites may not truly reflect the time since moraine formation; for example, some crest soils on moraines of greatly different age are similar in morphology and development. Soil catena data for soils at several sites aligned downslope from the crest can greatly improve on the usefulness of soil data for estimating moraine ages. For this purpose, the authors use the weighted mean catena profile development index, which condenses field data for all of the soils in each catena into a single value.

  5. ESTIMATES OF WATER INGESTION FOR WOMEN IN PREGNANT, LACTATING AND NON-PREGNANT AND NON-LACTATING CHILD BEARING AGE GROUPS BASED ON USDA'S 1994-96, 1998 CONTINUING SURVEY OF FOOD INTAKE BY INDIVIDUALS (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Women in the child bearing age of 15 to 44 years and, in particular, pregnant and lactating women in this age cohort are considered a sensitive subpopulation when assessing risk from ingestion of contaminated water because ingested contaminants may pose a risk not only to the mot...

  6. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Coleman, Phil R

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.

  7. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems-revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K

    1994-08-01

    This report presents a revision of the procedure and correlations presented earlier in NUREG/CR-4513, ANL-90/42 (June 1991) for predicting the change in mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water reactors at 280-330{degrees}C (535-625{degrees}F). The correlations presented in this report are based on an expanded data base and have been optimized with mechanical-property data on cast stainless steels aged up to {approx}58,000 h at 290-350{degrees}C (554-633{degrees}F). The fracture toughness J-R curve, tensile stress, and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known material information. Mechanical properties of a specific cast stainless steel are estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. Embrittlement of cast stainless steels is characterized in terms of room-temperature Charpy-impact energy. Charpy-impact energy as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which are also determined from the chemical composition. The initial impact energy of the unaged steel is required for these estimations. Initial tensile flow stress is needed for estimating the flow stress of the aged material. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained by correlating room-temperature Charpy-impact energy with fracture toughness parameters. The values of J{sub IC} are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. A common {open_quotes}predicted lower-bound{close_quotes} J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, range of ferrite content, and temperature. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented.

  8. Age estimation using lower permanent first molars on a panoramic radiograph: A digital image analysis

    PubMed Central

    Talabani, Ranjdar M.; Baban, Mohammed T.; Mahmood, Mohammed A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: A study was carried out to analyze the efficacy and practical application for age estimation using digital panoramic radiograph to exploit image analysis to obtain metric measurement of morphological parameters of permanent mandibular first molar on Sulaimani population. Materials and Methods: In the present study a population of known age and sex was studied and subjected to digital panoramic radiographic examination. The correlation between the reduction of coronal pulp cavity and chronological age was examined in a sample of 96 individuals distributed into four age groups: 20-29 years (29 cases), 30-39 years (29 cases), 40-49 years (26 cases) and 50-59 years (12 cases). The height (mm) of the crown (CH = coronal height) and the height (mm) of coronal pulp cavity (CPCH = coronal pulp cavity height) of 96 of first molars from all subjects was measured. The tooth–coronal index (TCI) after Ikeda et al. was computed for each tooth and regressed on real age. Results: ANOVA was used to show the strength of relation between the age and TCI (P = 0.0000). The correlation coefficient (r2) was 0.49, which mean there is strong negative linear regression between age and TCI with the r2, regarding predicting age using TCI value, after the following equation calculated, Predicted age = 3.78 – (0.064 TCI) showed that there is no significant difference between real age and estimated age. Conclusion: There is a strong negative liner relationship between TCIs of mandibular first molars with chronological age of Sulaimani population, and age of individuals can therefore be estimated with a good degree of accuracy using regression equations. PMID:26005307

  9. Estimating life expectancy using an age-cohort model in Taiwan.

    PubMed Central

    Lee, W C; Hsieh, R L

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Life expectation is a valuable summary index in public health and actuarial science. The life expectancies published in the vital statistics, however, are derived from the "current" rather than from the "cohort" life table. The former is based on a strong assumption of constant mortality in the population, whereas the latter calls for a recording of the mortality experience of a group of individuals, which is often an impossible task. Thus, a method of calculating cohort life expectancy without actual follow up is much needed. METHODS: Estimation of cohort life expectancy was based on an age-cohort model. Mortality data for the male population in Taiwan from 1951 to 1990 are used to illustrate the methodology. RESULTS: The increment of life expectancy over time in Taiwan is actually steeper than was previously thought using the current life table technique. CONCLUSIONS: The method is easy to implement and the data required are the usual age and period cross classified mortality data. It warrants further investigation. PMID:8762391

  10. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    PubMed

    Monson, Daniel H; Udevitz, Mark S; Jay, Chadwick V

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2) (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  11. Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  12. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    PubMed

    Monson, Daniel H; Udevitz, Mark S; Jay, Chadwick V

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2) (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  13. Estimating Age Ratios and Size of Pacific Walrus Herds on Coastal Haulouts using Video Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  14. Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in canines by peri-apical X-rays.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Belcastro, Maria Giovanna; Bonfiglioli, Benedetta; Rastelli, Elisa; Cingolani, Mariano

    2007-01-01

    Estimation of age in individuals has received considerable attention in forensic science, in which it is a widely used method for individual identification, together with paleo-demographic analyses to establish mortality patterns in past populations. The present investigation, which is a continuation of a previously published pilot study, was conducted to examine the possible application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical images as an indicator of age at death. A total of 200 peri-apical X-rays of upper and lower canines were assembled from 57 male and 43 female skeletons of Caucasian origin, aged between 20 and 79 years. They belong to the Frassetto osteological collection of Sassari (Sardinia) and are housed in the Museum of Anthropology, Department of Experimental and Evolutionistic Biology, University of Bologna. For each skeleton, dental maturity was evaluated by measuring the pulp/tooth area ratio on upper (x(1)) and lower (x(2)) canines. Very good agreement was found between intraobserver measurements. Statistical analysis was performed in order to obtain multiple regression formulae for dental age calculation, with chronological age as dependent variable, and gender, and upper and lower canines as independent variables. Stepwise regression analysis showed that gender did not contribute significantly to the fit (p=0.881) whereas variables x(1) and x(2) and the first-order interaction between them did. These two variables explained 92.5% of variations in estimated chronological age and the residual standard error was 4.06 years. Lastly, two simple linear regression equations were obtained for age estimation using canines from the maxilla and mandible separately. Both models explained 86% of variations in estimated chronological age and allowed an age-at-death estimate with a residual standard error of about 5.4 years.

  15. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction. PMID:26828757

  16. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction. PMID:26828757

  17. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction.

  18. Forensic age estimation through evaluation of the apophyseal ossification of the iliac crest in Western Chinese.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-ai; Chen, Xiao-gang; Li, Yuan; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2015-07-01

    The criminal age estimation procedures have gained greatest significance to date, a reliable age diagnostics may depend on data of skeletal maturation from different socioeconomic status. In order to establish the iliac crest apophysis as a possible criterion for forensic age estimation in a different socioeconomic status, and to examine the pace of ossification for the iliac crest apophysis in Western Chinese, one thousand seven hundreds and seventy-seven conventional pelvic radiographs relating to West China Han group routinely taken between January 2010 and June 2012 have been sighted. The data was analysed with separation of the sexes. The results indicated that stage 2a was last observed in females at the age of 17.00 and in males at the age of 18.01, stage 3a was first achieved in females at the age of 14.46 and in males at the age of 15.31, stage 4 was observed between 17.95 and 25.98 years for male and between 18.36 and 25.95 years for female. By comparison with previous studies, our research indicated that Western Chinese presents a delaying development for the iliac crest apophysis. Furthermore, the present study with eight stages of ossification for the iliac crest offers a valuable alternative method of estimation of 18 years of age for Western Chinese.

  19. Forensic dental age estimation by measuring root dentin translucency area using a new digital technique.

    PubMed

    Acharya, Ashith B

    2014-05-01

    Dentin translucency measurement is an easy yet relatively accurate approach to postmortem age estimation. Translucency area represents a two-dimensional change and may reflect age variations better than length. Manually measuring area is challenging and this paper proposes a new digital method using commercially available computer hardware and software. Area and length were measured on 100 tooth sections (age range, 19-82 years) of 250 μm thickness. Regression analysis revealed lower standard error of estimate and higher correlation with age for length than for area (R = 0.62 vs. 0.60). However, test of regression formulae on a control sample (n = 33, 21-85 years) showed smaller mean absolute difference (8.3 vs. 8.8 years) and greater frequency of smaller errors (73% vs. 67% age estimates ≤ ± 10 years) for area than for length. These suggest that digital area measurements of root translucency may be used as an alternative to length in forensic age estimation.

  20. Precision of hard structures used to estimate age of mountain Whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) is a widely distributed salmonid in western North America that has decreased in abundance over portions of its distribution due to anthropogenic disturbances. In this investigation, we examined precision of age estimates derived from scales, pectoral fin rays, and sagittal otoliths from 167 mountain whitefish. Otoliths and pectoral fin rays were mounted in epoxy and cross-sectioned before examination. Scales were pressed onto acetate slides and resulting impressions were examined. Between-reader precision (i.e., between 2 readers), between-reader variability, and reader confidence ratings were compared among hard structures. Coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and percentage of exact agreement (PA-0) was highest for scales (CV = 5.9; PA-0 = 70%) compared to pectoral fin rays (CV =11.0; PA-0 = 58%) and otoliths (CV = 12.3; PA-0 = 55%). Median confidence ratings were significantly different (P ≤ 0.05) among all structures, with scales having the highest median confidence. Reader confidence decreased with fish age for scales and pectoral fin rays, but reader confidence increased with fish age for otoliths. In general, age estimates were more precise and reader confidence was higher for scales compared to pectoral fin rays and otoliths. This research will help fisheries biologists in selecting the most appropriate hard structure to use for future age and growth studies on mountain whitefish. In turn, selection of the most precise hard structure will lead to better estimates of dynamic rate functions.

  1. Age estimation using carpals: study of a Slovenian sample to test Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Ermenc, Branko; Mirtella, Dora; Strus, Katja

    2008-01-30

    Carpals are often used as age indicators. In a recent study, Cameriere et al. studied the use of the ratio between the total area of carpal bones and epiphyses of the ulna and radius (Bo) and carpals (Ca) as age indicators. The present study, of a sample of 158 Slovenian children and adolescents aged between 6 and 16 years, focused on analysing the best regression for age estimation. The regression model yielded the following equation: age=-3.411+0.942 g+20.927(Bo/Ca), and explained 91.6% of total variance (R(2)=0.916). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.09 years, with a quartile deviation of 0.786 years, and a standard error of estimate of 0.658 years. Comparisons between the previous equation referring to Slovenian children and the equivalent linear equation proposed by Cameriere et al. did not reveal any significant differences between the intercepts and slopes of the two linear models. These results suggested a common regression model for both Italian and Slovenian samples. The common regression model, describing age as a linear function of gender and Bo/Ca ratio, yielded the following linear regression formula: age=-2.907+0.408 g+20.757(Bo/Ca). This model explained 86% of total variance (R(2)=0.86). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.02 years, with a quartile deviation of 1.02 years and a standard error of estimate of 0.96 years.

  2. Computed tomography evaluation of the iliac crest apophysis: age estimation in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Inci, Ercan; Erdil, Irem; Hocaoglu, Elif; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Kazimoglu, Cemal; Reisoglu, Ali; Can, Ismail Ozgur

    2016-07-01

    Determination of the ossification properties of the iliac apophysis is important not only in the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery but also in age estimation studies for forensic purposes. The literature includes both anthropological and radiological (conventional radiography, ultrasonography, and magnetic resonance imaging modalities) investigations of the different staging systems used for these purposes. In this study, we assessed the utility of computed tomography (CT) of the iliac crest apophysis in estimating forensic age. CT scans of the iliac crest apophysis of 380 patients (187 females, 193 males, and 10-29 years of age) were evaluated according to the four-stage system. Further subclassification did not give data properly due to the reference length measurement of the iliac wing with CT. Thus, in our series, stage 2 was first seen in 12 years of age and stage 3 in those 14 years of age in both sexes and on both sides of the pelvis. Stage 4 was first seen in 17 years of both sexes but only on the right side; on the left side, it appeared in females 18 years of age and in males 17 years of age. Present data was found consistent with previous pelvic radiographic findings. First seen ages for stage 2 and 3 are 12 and 14 years respectively which presented valuable information for legally important age thresholds. However, disadvantages of CT, including high-dose radiation exposure to gonads, the difficulty of evaluating the iliac crest, and the age boundary of 17 years, could make this method infeasible, as compared with hand wrist and pelvic radiographic methods. CT of the iliac crest has probably a greater utility where preexisting CT scans of the pelvic region are available, and it may be considered as a supportive method for age-estimation purposes. PMID:26914804

  3. Estimation of Heterogeneity in Diagnostic Parameters of Age-related Diseases.

    PubMed

    Blokh, David; Stambler, Ilia

    2014-08-01

    The heterogeneity of parameters is a ubiquitous biological phenomenon, with critical implications for biological systems functioning in normal and diseased states. We developed a method to estimate the level of objects set heterogeneity with reference to particular parameters and applied it to type II diabetes and heart disease, as examples of age-related systemic dysfunctions. The Friedman test was used to establish the existence of heterogeneity. The Newman-Keuls multiple comparison method was used to determine clusters. The normalized Shannon entropy was used to provide the quantitative evaluation of heterogeneity. There was obtained an estimate for the heterogeneity of the diagnostic parameters in healthy subjects, as well as in heart disease and type II diabetes patients, which was strongly related to their age. With aging, as with the diseases, the level of heterogeneity (entropy) was reduced, indicating a formal analogy between these phenomena. The similarity of the patterns in aging and disease suggested a kind of "early aging" of the diseased subjects, or alternatively a "disease-like" aging process, with reference to these particular parameters. The proposed method and its validation on the chronic age-related disease samples may support a way toward a formal mathematical relation between aging and chronic diseases and a formal definition of aging and disease, as determined by particular heterogeneity (entropy) changes. PMID:25110613

  4. Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

    1997-01-01

    Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

  5. Evaluation of age estimation in forensic medicine by examination of medial clavicular ossification from thin-slice computed tomography images.

    PubMed

    Gurses, Murat Serdar; Inanir, Nursel Turkmen; Gokalp, Gokhan; Fedakar, Recep; Tobcu, Eren; Ocakoglu, Gokhan

    2016-09-01

    Forensic age estimation, a recent topic of research in forensic medicine, is of primary importance to criminal and civil law. Previous studies indicate that the observation of medial clavicular ossification allows for age discrimination along the completed 18th and 21st years of life. Experts recommend that the Schmeling and Kellinghaus methods be used together. In this study, we used these staging methods to retrospectively analyze 725 case studies (385 males, 340 females) of thin-slice computed tomography (CT) images, ranging from 0.6 to 1 mm in thickness, from individuals aged 10 to 35 years. Stage 1 was found at 18 years of age maximum for males, whereas it was found at 17 years of age for females. Stage 2a was found at 18 years of age maximum for both genders. Stage 3c was initially observed at 18 years for both genders. Stage 4 was initially found at 21 years for males and 20 years for females. Stage 5 was initially observed at 25 years for both genders. Of note, stage 3c was found close to 19 years of age for both genders (18.92 years for male, 18.99 years for female), and it may be employed to differentiate along the age majority cutoff. The data obtained from our study were consistent with previous studies. We believe that such a comprehensive database will greatly contribute to future studies focusing on medial clavicular ossification based on thin-slice CT. Moreover, we also recommend that if medial clavicular ossification based on CT is to be examined for forensic age estimation, both methods should be employed together.

  6. Estimation of age-specific per capita home-produced food intake among populations that garden, farm, or raise animals.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Linda; Moya, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    Intake of home-produced foods may be a concern in areas where chemical contamination exists. Estimating exposure to contaminants in home-produced foods requires knowledge of the amount of these foods consumed. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Exposure Factors Handbook provides data on consumption of home-produced foods based on the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) 1987-1988 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey (NFCS), the most recent national food survey that contains the information necessary to estimate home-produced consumption. These data represent "consumer-only" intake rate distributions for various age and demographic categories. "Consumers-only" information is also provided for households who garden, farm, and raise animals for all age groups combined. However, these "consumer-only" values may not always be appropriate when assessing chronic exposures. Furthermore, data for all ages combined may not be useful for estimating exposure among age groups that may be of particular concern. This paper provides age-specific "per capita" intake rate distributions of home-produced foods specifically for the populations that garden, farm, and raise animals, using data from EPA's Exposure Factors Handbook. PMID:21522189

  7. Estimation of age-specific per capita home-produced food intake among populations that garden, farm, or raise animals.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Linda; Moya, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    Intake of home-produced foods may be a concern in areas where chemical contamination exists. Estimating exposure to contaminants in home-produced foods requires knowledge of the amount of these foods consumed. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Exposure Factors Handbook provides data on consumption of home-produced foods based on the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) 1987-1988 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey (NFCS), the most recent national food survey that contains the information necessary to estimate home-produced consumption. These data represent "consumer-only" intake rate distributions for various age and demographic categories. "Consumers-only" information is also provided for households who garden, farm, and raise animals for all age groups combined. However, these "consumer-only" values may not always be appropriate when assessing chronic exposures. Furthermore, data for all ages combined may not be useful for estimating exposure among age groups that may be of particular concern. This paper provides age-specific "per capita" intake rate distributions of home-produced foods specifically for the populations that garden, farm, and raise animals, using data from EPA's Exposure Factors Handbook.

  8. The analysis of temporal gene expression to estimate the age of forensically important blow fly pupae: results from three blind studies.

    PubMed

    Boehme, Petra; Spahn, Philipp; Amendt, Jens; Zehner, Richard

    2014-05-01

    The estimation of the minimum postmortem interval can be implemented by age estimation of corpse-associated primary colonizers such as the blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae). In cases where pupae represent the oldest stages found on a body, their age must be added to the duration of prepupal development to estimate the minimum postmortem interval. Although methods to age blow fly larvae have been well established using morphology, length or weight and age estimation of pupae has proved challenging. In a previous work, we quantified the changes in mRNA levels of four differentially expressed genes during the metamorphosis of Calliphora vicina pupae, hence representing molecular markers for pupal age (i.e., time elapsed since pupariation). Here, we demonstrate how these data can be used to estimate pupal age with inverse prediction. We present three blind studies conducted under various conditions and show that age of C. vicina pupae can be well estimated based on gene expression data. As these data are quantitative and can be processed automatically, gene expression has the potential to outperform morphological analysis in age estimation of forensically relevant blow fly pupae.

  9. Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

    PubMed

    Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

    2015-04-01

    Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures.

  10. Using groundwater age distributions to estimate the effective parameters of Fickian and non-Fickian models of solute transport

    PubMed Central

    Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater age distributions are used to estimate the parameters of Fickian, and non-Fickian, effective models of solute transport. Based on the similarities between the transport and age equations, we develop a deconvolution based approach that describes transport between two monitoring wells. We show that the proposed method gives exact estimates of the travel time distribution between two wells when the domain is stationary and that the method still provides useful information on transport when the domain is non-stationary. The method is demonstrated using idealized uniform and layered 2-D aquifers. Homogeneous transport is determined exactly and non-Fickian transport in a layered aquifer was also approximated very well, even though this example problem is shown to be scale-dependent. This work introduces a method that addresses a significant limitation of tracer tests and non-Fickian transport modeling which is the difficulty in determining the effective parameters of the transport model. PMID:25821342

  11. Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.

    1988-01-01

    It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

  12. Radar Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Zhang, J.; Chang, P.

    2012-12-01

    Accurate high-resolution radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) has shown increasing values in hydrological predictions in the last decade. Such QPEs are especially valuable in complex terrain where rain gauge network is sparse and hard to maintain while flash floods and mudslides are common hazards. Taiwan Central Weather Bureau has deployed four S-band radars to support their flood warning operations in recent years, and a real-time multi-radar QPE system was developed. Evaluations of the real-time system over one-year revealed some underestimation issues in the radar QPE. The current work investigates these issues and develops a series of refinements to the system. The refinements include replacing the general R-Z relationships used in the old system with the local ones, mitigating non-standard beam blockage artifacts based on long-term accumulations, and applying vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) corrections. The local R-Z relationships were derived from 2D video disdrometer observations of winter stratiform precipitation, meiyu fronts, local convective storms, and typhoons. The VPR correction was applied to reduce radar QPE errors in severely blocked area near the Central Mountain Range (CMR). The new radar QPE system was tested using different precipitation events and showed significant improvements over the old system especially along the CMR.

  13. Cost-Sensitive Local Binary Feature Learning for Facial Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jiwen; Liong, Venice Erin; Zhou, Jie

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary feature learning (CS-LBFL) method for facial age estimation. Unlike the conventional facial age estimation methods that employ hand-crafted descriptors or holistically learned descriptors for feature representation, our CS-LBFL method learns discriminative local features directly from raw pixels for face representation. Motivated by the fact that facial age estimation is a cost-sensitive computer vision problem and local binary features are more robust to illumination and expression variations than holistic features, we learn a series of hashing functions to project raw pixel values extracted from face patches into low-dimensional binary codes, where binary codes with similar chronological ages are projected as close as possible, and those with dissimilar chronological ages are projected as far as possible. Then, we pool and encode these local binary codes within each face image as a real-valued histogram feature for face representation. Moreover, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary multi-feature learning method to jointly learn multiple sets of hashing functions using face patches extracted from different scales to exploit complementary information. Our methods achieve competitive performance on four widely used face aging data sets. PMID:26415174

  14. Age-at-maturity estimates for Atlantic coast female striped bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berlinsky, David L.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; O'Brien, John F.; Specker, Jennifer L.

    1995-01-01

    This study was undertaken to estimate the percentage of mature female striped bass Morone saxatilis present in each age-class during annual coastal feeding migration. Migratory striped bass (N = 302) were sampled in coastal Rhode Island waters during spring (May-June) and fall (September-November) from 1985 to 1987. Stocks were identified by analysis of morphometric characters and isoelectric focusing of eye-lens proteins. Histological sections of ovarian tissue were used to categorize maturity state. Fish were considered mature if a class of oocytes measuring at least 150 μm and containing cytoplasmic inclusions was found in the ovarian sections. All females whose age at next potential spawning was 7 and older were mature. Our empirical observations indicated that 12% of fish in age-class 4, 34% of fish in age-class 5, and 77% of fish in age-class 6 were mature. The estimate of the proportion of mature fish in age-class 5 differs significantly from that of Merriman (1941), who also examined coastal migrants. No significant differences were found in maturity estimates of fish from stocks of different origin.

  15. Problems in estimating age-specific survival rates from recovery data of birds ringed as young

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.

    1985-01-01

    (1) The life table model is frequently employed in the analysis of ringer samples of young in bird populations. The basic model is biologically unrealistic and of little use in making inferences concerning age-specific survival probabilities. (2) This model rests on a number of restrictive assumptions, the failure of which causes serious biases. Several important assumptions are not met with real data and the estimators of age-specific survival are not robust enough to these failures. (3) Five major problems in the use of the life table method are reviewed. Examples are provided to illustrate several of the problems involved in using this method in making inferences about survival rates and its age-specific nature. (4) We conclude that this is an invalid procedure and it should not be used. Furthermore, ringing studies involving only young birds are pointless as regards survival estimation because no valid method exists for estimating age-specific or time-specific survival rates from such data. (5) In our view, inferences about age-specific survival rates are possible only if both young and adult (or young, subadult and adult) age classes are ringed each year for k years (k ≥ 2).

  16. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  17. Improving estimates of surface water radiocarbon reservoir ages in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenop, Rosanna; Burke, Andrea; Rae, James; Austin, William; Reimer, Paula; Blaauw, Maarten; Crocker, Anya; Chalk, Thomas; Barker, Stephen; Knutz, Paul; Hall, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Radiocarbon measurements from foraminifera in marine sediment cores are widely used to constrain age models and the timing of paleoceanographic events, as well as past changes in ocean circulation and carbon cycling. However, the use of radiocarbon for both dating and palaeoceanographic applications is limited in sediment cores by a lack of knowledge about the surface ocean radiocarbon reservoir age and how it varies in both space and time. Typically, to convert a planktic radiocarbon age into a calendar age, an assumed constant reservoir age is applied. However, there is mounting evidence to suggest that this assumption of constant reservoir age through time is an oversimplification, particularly for the high latitude oceans during the cold climates of the last glacial and deglacial periods. Here we present new high-resolution radiocarbon records together with tephra tie points and 230-thorium (230Th) constrained sedimentation rates to improve estimates of radiocarbon reservoir age in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. In addition we will explore the impact of the new reservoir ages for both the age models of the cores studied, as well as the palaeoceanographic implications of these reservoir age changes during intervals of rapid climate change over the past 40,000 years.

  18. Contour-based object orientation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpatov, Boris; Babayan, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    Real-time object orientation estimation is an actual problem of computer vision nowadays. In this paper we propose an approach to estimate an orientation of objects lacking axial symmetry. Proposed algorithm is intended to estimate orientation of a specific known 3D object, so 3D model is required for learning. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm consists of 2 stages: learning and estimation. Learning stage is devoted to the exploring of studied object. Using 3D model we can gather set of training images by capturing 3D model from viewpoints evenly distributed on a sphere. Sphere points distribution is made by the geosphere principle. It minimizes the training image set. Gathered training image set is used for calculating descriptors, which will be used in the estimation stage of the algorithm. The estimation stage is focusing on matching process between an observed image descriptor and the training image descriptors. The experimental research was performed using a set of images of Airbus A380. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm showed good accuracy (mean error value less than 6°) in all case studies. The real-time performance of the algorithm was also demonstrated.

  19. Age estimation in children by measurement of open apices in teeth with Bayesian calibration approach.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, R; Pacifici, A; Pacifici, L; Polimeni, A; Federici, F; Cingolani, M; Ferrante, L

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation from teeth by radiological analysis, in both children and adolescents, has wide applications in several scientific and forensic fields. In 2006, Cameriere et al. proposed a regression method to estimate chronological age in children, according to measurements of open apices of permanent teeth. Although several regression models are used to analyze the relationship between age and dental development, one serious limitation is the unavoidable bias in age estimation when regression models are used. The aim of this paper is to develop a full Bayesian calibration method for age estimation in children according to the sum of open apices, S, of the seven left permanent mandibular teeth. This cross-sectional study included 2630 orthopantomographs (OPGs) from healthy living Italian subjects, aged between 4 and 17 years and with no obvious developmental abnormalities. All radiographs were in digital format and were processed by the ImageJ computer-aided drawing program. The distance between the inner side of the open apex was measured for each tooth. Dental maturity was then evaluated according to the sum of normalized open apices (S). Intra- and inter-observer agreement was satisfactory, according to an intra-class correlation coefficient of S on 50 randomly selected OPGs. Mean absolute errors were 0.72 years (standard deviation 0.60) and 0.73 years (standard deviation 0.61) in boys and girls, respectively. The mean interquartile range (MIQR) of the calibrating distribution was 1.37 years (standard deviation 0.46) and 1.51 years (standard deviation 0.52) in boys and girls, respectively. Estimate bias was βERR=-0.005 and 0.003 for boys and girls, corresponding to a bias of a few days for all individuals in the sample. Neither of the βERR values was significantly different from 0 (p>0.682). In conclusion, the Bayesian calibration method overcomes problems of bias in age estimation when regression models are used, and appears to be suitable for assessing both

  20. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60–75: impact of age, education, employment, physical exercise, alcohol, and video gaming

    PubMed Central

    Wilms, Inge L.; Nielsen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Visual perception serves as the basis for much of the higher level cognitive processing as well as human activity in general. Here we present normative estimates for the following components of visual perception: the visual perceptual threshold, the visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity and the visual perceptual encoding/decoding speed (processing speed) of VSTM based on an assessment of 91 healthy subjects aged 60–75. The estimates were modeled from input from a whole-report assessment based on a theory of visual attention. In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data, and multiple regression analyses between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and lifestyle variables. The regression statistics suggest that education level, video gaming activity, and employment status may significantly impact the encoding/decoding speed of VTSM but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual perceptual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular. PMID:25339932

  1. Effects of age, weight, and fat slaughter end points on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects for carcass traits.

    PubMed

    Ríos-Utrera, A; Cundiff, L V; Gregory, K E; Koch, R M; Dikeman, M E; Koohmaraie, M; Van Vleck, L D

    2006-01-01

    The influence of different levels of adjusted fat thickness (AFT) and HCW slaughter end points (covariates) on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects was studied for 14 carcass traits from serially slaughtered purebred and composite steers from the US Meat Animal Research Center (MARC). Contrasts among breed solutions were estimated at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 cm of AFT, and at 295.1, 340.5, and 385.9 kg of HCW. For constant slaughter age, contrasts were adjusted to the overall mean (432.5 d). Breed effects for Red Poll, Hereford, Limousin, Braunvieh, Pinzgauer, Gelbvieh, Simmental, Charolais, MARC I, MARC II, and MARC III were estimated as deviations from Angus. In addition, purebreds were pooled into 3 groups based on lean-to-fat ratio, and then differences were estimated among groups. Retention of combined individual and maternal heterosis was estimated for each composite. Mean retained heterosis for the 3 composites also was estimated. Breed rankings and expression of heterosis varied within and among end points. For example, Charolais had greater (P < 0.05) dressing percentages than Angus at the 2 largest levels of AFT and smaller (P < 0.01) percentages at the 2 largest levels of HCW, whereas the 2 breeds did not differ (P > or = 0.05) at a constant age. The MARC III composite produced 9.7 kg more (P < 0.01) fat than Angus at AFT of 0.7 cm, but 7.9 kg less (P < 0.05) at AFT of 1.5 cm. For MARC III, the estimate of retained heterosis for HCW was significant (P < 0.05) at the lowest level of AFT, but at the intermediate and greatest levels estimates were nil. The pattern was the same for MARC I and MARC III for LM area. Adjustment for age resulted in near zero estimates of retained heterosis for AFT, and similarly, adjustment for HCW resulted in nil estimates of retained heterosis for LM area. For actual retail product as a percentage of HCW, the estimate of retained heterosis for MARC III was negative (-1.27%; P < 0.05) at 0.7 cm but was significantly

  2. Effects of age, weight, and fat slaughter end points on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects for carcass traits.

    PubMed

    Ríos-Utrera, A; Cundiff, L V; Gregory, K E; Koch, R M; Dikeman, M E; Koohmaraie, M; Van Vleck, L D

    2006-01-01

    The influence of different levels of adjusted fat thickness (AFT) and HCW slaughter end points (covariates) on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects was studied for 14 carcass traits from serially slaughtered purebred and composite steers from the US Meat Animal Research Center (MARC). Contrasts among breed solutions were estimated at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 cm of AFT, and at 295.1, 340.5, and 385.9 kg of HCW. For constant slaughter age, contrasts were adjusted to the overall mean (432.5 d). Breed effects for Red Poll, Hereford, Limousin, Braunvieh, Pinzgauer, Gelbvieh, Simmental, Charolais, MARC I, MARC II, and MARC III were estimated as deviations from Angus. In addition, purebreds were pooled into 3 groups based on lean-to-fat ratio, and then differences were estimated among groups. Retention of combined individual and maternal heterosis was estimated for each composite. Mean retained heterosis for the 3 composites also was estimated. Breed rankings and expression of heterosis varied within and among end points. For example, Charolais had greater (P < 0.05) dressing percentages than Angus at the 2 largest levels of AFT and smaller (P < 0.01) percentages at the 2 largest levels of HCW, whereas the 2 breeds did not differ (P > or = 0.05) at a constant age. The MARC III composite produced 9.7 kg more (P < 0.01) fat than Angus at AFT of 0.7 cm, but 7.9 kg less (P < 0.05) at AFT of 1.5 cm. For MARC III, the estimate of retained heterosis for HCW was significant (P < 0.05) at the lowest level of AFT, but at the intermediate and greatest levels estimates were nil. The pattern was the same for MARC I and MARC III for LM area. Adjustment for age resulted in near zero estimates of retained heterosis for AFT, and similarly, adjustment for HCW resulted in nil estimates of retained heterosis for LM area. For actual retail product as a percentage of HCW, the estimate of retained heterosis for MARC III was negative (-1.27%; P < 0.05) at 0.7 cm but was significantly

  3. Diagnostic and Prognostic Tools for Residual Life Estimation in Aging Nuclear Power Plant Components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramuhalli, P.; Bond, L. J.; Griffin, J.; Henager, C.; Dixit, M.

    2011-06-01

    A central issue in life extension for the current fleet of light water nuclear power reactors (LWR) is the early detection and monitoring of significant materials degradation. To meet this need, nondestructive methods that are suitable for continuous monitoring over extended time periods (months to years) are needed. A related issue is the ability to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of components and systems based on condition assessment or degradation information. Monitoring for early detection of materials degradation requires novel sensors and enhanced data integration techniques. A range of acoustic and electromagnetic measurement methods may be suitable, including acoustic microscopy, eddy current and magnetic Barkhausen emission. Prognostic methods that predict rate of degradation and remaining life based on phenomena that can be described by linear elastic fracture mechanics have been reported by several researchers. However, the challenge of predicting remaining life starting from earlier phases of degradation is largely unsolved. This paper discusses an assessment of selected diagnostic techniques, and the application of Bayesian prognostic algorithms to detection of early degradation and rate of degradation/life prediction. Such measurement and modeling methods are expected to form the basis for a new range of advanced diagnostic and prognostic approaches for assessing and monitoring life extension of ageing light water reactors.

  4. Diagnostic and Prognostic Tools for Residual Life Estimation in Aging Nuclear Power Plant Components

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Henager, Charles H.; Dixit, Mukul

    2011-06-23

    A central issue in life extension for the current fleet of light water nuclear power reactors (LWR) is the early detection and monitoring of significant materials degradation. To meet this need, nondestructive methods that are suitable for continuous monitoring over extended time periods (months to years) are needed. A related issue is the ability to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of components and systems based on condition assessment or degradation information. Monitoring for early detection of materials degradation requires novel sensors and enhanced data integration techniques. A range of acoustic and electromagnetic measurement methods may be suitable, including acoustic microscopy, eddy current and magnetic Barkhausen emission. Prognostic methods that predict rate of degradation and remaining life based on phenomena that can be described by linear elastic fracture mechanics have been reported by several researchers. However, the challenge of predicting remaining life starting from earlier phases of degradation is largely unsolved. This paper discusses an assessment of selected diagnostic techniques, and the application of Bayesian prognostic algorithms to detection of early degradation and rate of degradation/life prediction. Such measurement and modeling methods are expected to form the basis for a new range of advanced diagnostic and prognostic approaches for assessing and monitoring life extension of ageing light water reactors.

  5. Optical coherence tomography: age estimation of Calliphora vicina pupae in vivo?

    PubMed

    Brown, Katherine; Harvey, Michelle

    2014-09-01

    Necrophagous blowfly pupae are valuable contributors to the estimation of post-mortem interval, should an accurate age estimate be obtained. At present, this is reliant on a combination of rearing and destructive methods conducted on preserved samples, including morphological observation and gene expression analyses. This study demonstrates the use of optical coherence tomography (OCT) as a tool for in vivo morphological observation and pupal age estimation. Using a Michelson OCT microscope, alive and preserved four and ten-day old Calliphora vicina pupae were scanned in different orientations. Two and three-dimensional images were created. Morphological characteristics such as the brain, mouthparts and legs were identifiable in both living and preserved samples, with distinct differences noted between the two ages. Absorption of light by the puparium results in a vertical resolution of 1-2 mm, preventing observation of deeper tissues. The use of contrast agents or a longer wavelength laser would improve the images obtainable. At present, the data suggests OCT provides a primary view of external and internal morphology, which can be used to distinguish younger and older pupae for further analysis of age and PMI estimation.

  6. Age-Related Changes in Children's Executive Functions and Strategy Selection: A Study in Computational Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lemaire, Patrick; Lecacheur, Mireille

    2011-01-01

    Third, fifth, and seventh graders selected the best strategy (rounding up or rounding down) for estimating answers to two-digit addition problems. Executive function measures were collected for each individual. Data showed that (a) children's skill at both strategy selection and execution improved with age and (b) increased efficiency in executive…

  7. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2009-01-01

    Convolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium (3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  8. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, Larry D.

    2009-10-01

    SummaryConvolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium ( 3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  9. Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in lower premolars by orthopantomography.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; De Luca, Stefano; Alemán, Inmaculada; Ferrante, Luigi; Cingolani, Mariano

    2012-01-10

    Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Since 2004, in order to examine patterns of secondary dentine apposition, Cameriere et al. have been extensively studying the pulp/tooth area ratio of the canines by panoramic and peri-apical X-ray images. The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between age and age-related changes in the pulp/tooth area ratio in monoradicular teeth, with the exception of canines, by orthopantomography. A total of 606 orthopantomograms of Spanish white Caucasian patients (289 women and 317 men), aged between 18 and 75 years and coming from Bilbao and Granada (Spain), was analysed. Regression analysis of age of monoradicular teeth indicated that the lower premolars were the most closely correlated with age. An ANCOVA did not show significant differences between men and women. Multiple regression analysis, with age as dependent variable and pulp/tooth area ratio as predictor, yielded several formulae. R(2) ranged from 0.69 to 0.75 for a single lower premolar tooth and from 0.79 to 0.86 for multiple lower premolar teeth. Depending on the available number of premolar teeth, the mean of the absolute values of residual standard error, at 95% confidence interval, ranged between 4.34 and 6.02 years, showing that the pulp/tooth area ratio is a useful variable for assessing age with reasonable accuracy.

  10. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age.

    PubMed

    Royle, Natalie A; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E; Deary, Ian J; Wardlaw, Joanna M

    2013-12-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging.

  11. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X -Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  12. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods

    PubMed Central

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. Objectives: The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. Conclusion: The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation. PMID:25709325

  13. A Monte Carlo method for variance estimation for estimators based on induced smoothing

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Zhezhen; Shao, Yongzhao; Ying, Zhiliang

    2015-01-01

    An important issue in statistical inference for semiparametric models is how to provide reliable and consistent variance estimation. Brown and Wang (2005. Standard errors and covariance matrices for smoothed rank estimators. Biometrika 92, 732–746) proposed a variance estimation procedure based on an induced smoothing for non-smooth estimating functions. Herein a Monte Carlo version is developed that does not require any explicit form for the estimating function itself, as long as numerical evaluation can be carried out. A general convergence theory is established, showing that any one-step iteration leads to a consistent variance estimator and continuation of the iterations converges at an exponential rate. The method is demonstrated through the Buckley–James estimator and the weighted log-rank estimators for censored linear regression, and rank estimation for multiple event times data. PMID:24812418

  14. The use of computed tomography (CT) to estimate age in the 2009 Victorian Bushfire Victims: a case report.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Hill, Anthony J

    2011-02-25

    The development of new imaging technologies is beginning to have an impact upon medico-legal death investigation in an increasing number of jurisdictions. Computed tomography (CT) is an imaging modality which is able to provide information to investigators without the need for a physically invasive autopsy in certain circumstances. The use of post-mortem CT as an aid to the identification of the victims of the Black Saturday bushfires is discussed with particular reference to dental age estimation. A case report is presented which demonstrates the ability of this imaging modality to separate individuals based upon dental development. Whilst CT is not yet able to adequately discriminate between differing restoration types and shapes, and therefore cannot be used for dental identification in the classic sense, the ability of this imaging modality to assess dental and skeletal development for the purpose of age estimation is valid.

  15. Twins and the paradox of dental-age estimations: a caution for researchers and clinicians.

    PubMed

    Pechníková, M; De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Vecchio, V; Cameriere, R; Zeqiri, B; Cattaneo, C

    2014-08-01

    The biological age difference among twins is frequently an issue in studies of genetic influence on various dental features, particularly dental development. The timing of dental development is a crucial issue also for many clinicians and researchers. The aim of this study was therefore to verify within groups of twins how dental development differs, by applying Demirjian's method, Mincer's charts of development of third molars and two of Cameriere's methods for dental age estimation, which are among the most popular methods both in the clinical and the forensic scenario. The sample consisted of 64 twin pairs: 21 monozygotic, 30 dizygotic same-sex and 13 dizygotic opposite-sex with an age range between 5.8 and 22.6 years. Dental age was determined from radiographs using the mentioned methods. Results showed that dental age of monozygotic twins is not identical even if they share all their genes. The mean intra-pair difference of monozygotic pairs was low and similar to the difference in dizygotic same-sex twins; the maximum difference between monozygotic twins, however, was surprisingly large (nearly two years). This should lead to some circumspection in the interpretation of systematic estimations of dental age both in the clinical and forensic scenario. PMID:24951409

  16. Twins and the paradox of dental-age estimations: a caution for researchers and clinicians.

    PubMed

    Pechníková, M; De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Vecchio, V; Cameriere, R; Zeqiri, B; Cattaneo, C

    2014-08-01

    The biological age difference among twins is frequently an issue in studies of genetic influence on various dental features, particularly dental development. The timing of dental development is a crucial issue also for many clinicians and researchers. The aim of this study was therefore to verify within groups of twins how dental development differs, by applying Demirjian's method, Mincer's charts of development of third molars and two of Cameriere's methods for dental age estimation, which are among the most popular methods both in the clinical and the forensic scenario. The sample consisted of 64 twin pairs: 21 monozygotic, 30 dizygotic same-sex and 13 dizygotic opposite-sex with an age range between 5.8 and 22.6 years. Dental age was determined from radiographs using the mentioned methods. Results showed that dental age of monozygotic twins is not identical even if they share all their genes. The mean intra-pair difference of monozygotic pairs was low and similar to the difference in dizygotic same-sex twins; the maximum difference between monozygotic twins, however, was surprisingly large (nearly two years). This should lead to some circumspection in the interpretation of systematic estimations of dental age both in the clinical and forensic scenario.

  17. The EpiTect Methyl qPCR Assay as novel age estimation method in forensic biology.

    PubMed

    Mawlood, Shakhawan K; Dennany, Lynn; Watson, Nigel; Pickard, Benjamin S

    2016-07-01

    Human aging is associated with epigenetic modification of the genome. DNA methylation at cytosines appears currently as the best characterised modification that occurs during the mammalian lifetime. Such methylation changes at regulatory region can provide insights to track contributor age for criminal investigation. The EpiTect Methyl II PCR system (QIAGEN) was used to compare methylation levels of CpG islands in the promoter regions of a number of age related genes, of which four successfully showed changes across the lifespan (NPTX2, KCNQ1DN, GRIA2 and TRIM58). This technique is based on the detection of remaining input genome after digestion with a methylation-sensitive restriction enzyme. This study examined DNA specimens from 80 female subjects of various ages (18-91 years) obtained from blood, using primers designed to flank the studied gene loci. The data obtained from DNA methylation quantification showed successful discrimination among volunteered ages. Overall, the difference between predicted and real age was about 11 years and absolute mean differences (AMD) was only 7.2 years error. We suggest the EpiTect system can be used as fast and simple innovative tool in future forensic age estimation.

  18. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a. PMID:24328112

  19. [Radiologically determined DMF index variations for forensic age estimation of young adults].

    PubMed

    Andreas, Olze; Mahlow, Andrea; Schmidt, Sven; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas

    2004-01-01

    The eruption and mineralization of third molars are the main criteria for dental age estimation of living people involved in criminal proceedings. Since the development of third molars is usually completed by the age of 19 or 20 years, this feature cannot be used to ascertain whether a person has attained the forensically relevant age of 21 years. This study examined whether the DMFT index or the third molar DFT index could supply reliable information enabling conclusions to be drawn about whether a person has reached the age of 21. To this end, 650 conventional orthopantomograms of German subjects aged 18 to 30 years were evaluated. The DMF index variations considered were found to be unsuitable for determining whether a person is over 21 because they displayed a weak correlation with age and considerable individual scatter. A high indicative value can only be attributed to a third molar DFT index of 4, although this is rarely observed in the relevant age group. An X-ray examination of the medial clavicular epiphyseal cartilage is, therefore, strongly recommended when assessing whether a person has attained 21 years of age.

  20. The radiocarbon age of calcite dissolving at the sea floor: Estimates from pore water data

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, W.R.; McNichol, A.P.; McCorkle, D.C.

    2000-04-01

    The authors measured the radiocarbon content and stable isotopic composition of pore water and bottom water {Sigma}CO{sub 2}, sedimentary organic carbon, and CaCO{sub 3} at two sites on the Ceara Rise, one underlying bottom water that is supersaturated with respect to calcite (Site B), the other underlying under saturated bottom water (Site G). The results were combined with pore water O{sub 2}, {Sigma}CO{sub 2}, and Ca{sup 2+} profiles (Martin and Sayles, 1996) to estimate the radiocarbon content of the CaCO{sub 3} that is dissolving in the sediment mixed layer. At Site G, the CaCO{sub 3} that is dissolving in the upper 2 cm of the sediments is clearly younger (richer in {sup 14}C) than the bulk sedimentary CaCO{sub 3}, indicating that nonhomogeneous CaCO{sub 3} dissolution occurs there. The case for nonhomogeneous dissolution is much weaker at the site underlying supersaturated bottom water. The results indicate that nonhomogeneous dissolution occurs in sediments underlying under saturated bottom water, that the dissolution is rapid relative to the rate of homogenization of the CaCO{sub 3} in the mixed layer by bioturbation, and that the dissolution rate of CaCO{sub 3} decreases as it ages in the sediment mixed layer. The results support the hypothesis, based on solid phase analyses, that the preferential dissolution of young (i.e., radiocarbon-rich) CaCO{sub 3} leads to a pattern of increasing radiocarbon age of mixed-layer CaCO{sub 3} as the degree of under saturation of bottom water increases (Keir, 1984; Broecker et al., 1991).

  1. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. PMID:26165657

  2. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models.

  3. Femoral neck bone strength estimated by hip structural analysis (HSA) in Swedish Caucasians aged 6-90 years.

    PubMed

    Alwis, Gayani; Karlsson, Caroline; Stenevi-Lundgren, Susanna; Rosengren, Björn E; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2012-03-01

    Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry hip scans of 1,760 population-based Caucasians, 599 girls and 642 boys aged 6-19 years and 270 women and 249 men aged 20-90 years, were analyzed with the hip structural analysis (HSA) software to present age- and sex-specific normative HSA data of the femoral neck (FN). Measured traits included bone mineral density (BMD), cross-sectional area (CSA), section modulus (Z), periosteal diameter (PD), endosteal diameter (ED), cortical thickness (CT), and cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI). When plotting the measured traits versus age, the curves increased with higher ages until statistically significant break points were reached, for all traits at age 17 in girls and age 19 in boys. After the break points, PD and ED increased with higher ages but, as ED increased more than PD, BMD and CT decreased significantly with higher ages. The decline in BMD was counteracted by the increase in bone size so that there was only a nonstatistically significant decrease in bone strength, estimated as Z and CSMI, from break point to age 90. The partial preservation of bone strength was more obvious in men than in women as the decline in BMD was higher in women than in men, while the expansion in PD was larger in men than in women. The sex difference in the normative FN bone strength data seems to be related to sex discrepancies in the development of both bone mass and geometrical parameters during both growth and adulthood.

  4. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  5. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  6. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  7. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  8. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  9. Estimating age at death using the sternal end of the fourth ribs from Mexican males.

    PubMed

    Cerezo-Román, Jessica Inés; Hernández Espinoza, Patricia Olga

    2014-03-01

    The indicators proposed by İşcan et al. (1984) are said to reflect age changes that occur in the sternal end of the fourth rib. These indicators have been used to estimate age-at-death in adult skeletal samples. However, Isçan et al. developed their methods using a forensic sample from Florida (U.S.A.). In order to test the reproducibility of those methods we evaluate its accuracy for the fourth ribs by applying it to a sample of known age and sex but of different biological affinity: modern males from Mexico City. We found that the method developed by İşcan et al. underestimates age-at-death in the Mexican sample.

  10. Age estimates of globular clusters in the Milky Way: constraints on cosmology.

    PubMed

    Krauss, Lawrence M; Chaboyer, Brian

    2003-01-01

    Recent observations of stellar globular clusters in the Milky Way Galaxy, combined with revised ranges of parameters in stellar evolution codes and new estimates of the earliest epoch of globular cluster formation, result in a 95% confidence level lower limit on the age of the Universe of 11.2 billion years. This age is inconsistent with the expansion age for a flat Universe for the currently allowed range of the Hubble constant, unless the cosmic equation of state is dominated by a component that violates the strong energy condition. This means that the three fundamental observables in cosmology-the age of the Universe, the distance-redshift relation, and the geometry of the Universe-now independently support the case for a dark energy-dominated Universe.

  11. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  12. Estimating Allele Age and Selection Coefficient from Time-Serial Data

    PubMed Central

    Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Malaspinas, Orestis; Evans, Steven N.; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in sequencing technologies have made available an ever-increasing amount of ancient genomic data. In particular, it is now possible to target specific single nucleotide polymorphisms in several samples at different time points. Such time-series data are also available in the context of experimental or viral evolution. Time-series data should allow for a more precise inference of population genetic parameters and to test hypotheses about the recent action of natural selection. In this manuscript, we develop a likelihood method to jointly estimate the selection coefficient and the age of an allele from time-serial data. Our method can be used for allele frequencies sampled from a single diallelic locus. The transition probabilities are calculated by approximating the standard diffusion equation of the Wright–Fisher model with a one-step process. We show that our method produces unbiased estimates. The accuracy of the method is tested via simulations. Finally, the utility of the method is illustrated with an application to several loci encoding coat color in horses, a pattern that has previously been linked with domestication. Importantly, given our ability to estimate the age of the allele, it is possible to gain traction on the important problem of distinguishing selection on new mutations from selection on standing variation. In this coat color example for instance, we estimate the age of this allele, which is found to predate domestication. PMID:22851647

  13. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K. )

    1991-06-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting the change in fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water rectors (LWRs) at 280--330{degrees}C (535--625{degrees}F). The fracture toughness J-R curve and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known mineral in formation. Fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel is estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. The extent of thermal embrittlement is characterized by the room-temperature normalized'' Charpy-impact energy. A correlation for the extent of embrittlement at saturation,'' i.e., the minimum impact energy that would be achieved for the material after long-term aging, is given in terms of a material parameter, {Phi}, which is determined from the chemical composition. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained from correlations between room-temperature Charpy-impact energy and fracture toughness parameters. Fracture toughness as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which is determined from chemical composition. A common lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels with unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given material specification, ferrite content, and temperature. Examples for estimating impact strength and fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are describes. 24 refs., 39 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2013-01-01

    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  15. Histological estimation of age at death using microradiographs of humeral compact bone.

    PubMed

    Yoshino, M; Imaizumi, K; Miyasaka, S; Seta, S

    1994-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop an age estimating method for skeletal remains using microradiographs of compact bone. Compact bones of the humerus were collected from 40 Japanese males ranging from 23 to 80 years of age. Microradiographs taken from cross-sections were histomorphometrically examined by using an image analyzer. Histological parameters used in this study included 10 items, that is, osteon number, double-zoned osteon number, type II osteon number, low-density osteon number, osteon fragment number, resorption space number, total and average osteon area, and total and average Haversian canal area. The osteon fragment number showed the highest correlation coefficient with advancing age (r = 0.786). The measurement data obtained from 10 histological parameters were subjected to multiple regression analysis for producing multiple regression equations for age estimation. In practice, 8 histological parameters were selected for the equation and its multiple correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate were 0.903 and 6.1, respectively.

  16. Estimation of the reliability of heterolasers subjected to ageing under irradiation by a fast particle flux

    SciTech Connect

    Bogatov, Alexandr P; Kochetkov, A A; Konyaev, V P

    2011-02-28

    Relations for estimating the reliability of heterolasers operating under irradiation conditions are calculated based on the probabilistic analysis. The accumulation of defects in their active regions is considered to be the physical cause of their failure. (lasers)

  17. Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Web-ICE estimates acute toxicity (LC50/LD50) of a chemical to a species, genus, or family from the known toxicity of the chemical to a surrogate species. Web-ICE has modules to predict acute toxicity to aquatic (fish and invertebrates) and wildlife (birds and mammals) taxa for us...

  18. AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominant/co-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

  19. AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominantlco-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

  20. Estimation of lysine requirements of growing Japanese quail during the fourth and fifth weeks of age.

    PubMed

    Mehri, Mehran; Bagherzadeh Kasmani, Farzad; Asghari-Moghadam, Morteza

    2015-08-01

    A dose-response assay was conducted using broken-line regressions to estimate the lysine (Lys) requirements of quail chicks from 21 to 35 d of age. A basal diet was formulated to be adequate in all nutrients other than Lys. Incremental levels of L-Lys.HCl were added to the basal diet at the expense of a mix of cornstarch, NaHCO3, and NaCl to create 6 experimental diets containing 0.84 to 1.59% Lys. Feed intake (FI), weight gain (WG), and feed conversion ratio (FCR) responded quadratically to incremental levels of Lys (P < 0.0001). Using the linear broken-line (LBL) model, the estimated Lys requirements for WG during the fourth and fifth wk of age were 1.25 and 1.23% of diet, respectively. The corresponding values for FCR were estimated at 1.23 and 1.26% of diet, respectively. Fitting the quadratic broken-line (QBL) model, the estimated Lys requirements for WG during the fourth and fifth wk of age were 1.34 and 1.34% of diet, respectively. The corresponding values for FCR were estimated at 1.35 and 1.36% of diet, respectively. This study showed that using the QBL model as a promising way to estimate amino acids needed in the diet, the optimal Lys level to optimize performance of growing Japanese quail at the late stage of production might be 1.36% of diet, which is 105% of NRC recommendations. PMID:26069252

  1. Age estimation in children and young adolescents for forensic purposes using fourth cervical vertebra (C4).

    PubMed

    Cameriere, R; Giuliodori, A; Zampi, M; Galić, I; Cingolani, M; Pagliara, F; Ferrante, L

    2015-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of using the growth of the body of C4 vertebra for the estimation of age in children and young adolescents. We used the fact that the proportions between the radiologic projections of the posterior and anterior sides of the C4 vertebral body, which forms a trapezoidal shape, differ with age: in younger individuals, the posterior side is higher, whereas in older individuals, the projections of the sides of the vertebral body form a rectangular shape with the two sides equal or with the anterior side slightly higher. Cephalograms of 444 Italian subjects (214 female and 230 male individuals) aged between 5 and 15 years and with no obvious development abnormalities were analyzed. The projections of the anterior side (a) and of the posterior side (b) of each C4 body were measured, and their ratio (Vba), as a value of the C4 body development, was used for age estimation. Distribution of the Vba suggested that it does not change after 13 years in female and 14 years in male subjects. Consequently, we restricted our analysis of the Vba growing model until 14 years in both sexes. We used a Bayesian calibration method to estimate chronological age as function of Vba as a predicting variable. The intra- and inter-observer agreement was satisfactory, using intra-class correlation coefficient of Vba on 30 randomly selected cephalograms. The mean absolute errors were 1.34 years (standard deviation 0.95) and 1.01 years (standard deviation 0.71), and the mean inter-quartile ranges of the calibrating distribution were 2.32 years (standard deviation 0.25) in male and 1.72 years (standard deviation 0.39) in female individuals, respectively. The slopes of the regression of the estimated age error to chronological age were 0.02 in male and 0.06 in female individuals, where both values did not result significantly different from 0 (p > 0.12). In conclusion, although our Bayesian calibration method might not really

  2. The biochemical estimation of age in Euphausiids: Laboratory calibration and field comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, H. R.; Ju, Se-J.; Son, S.-K.; Feinberg, L. R.; Shaw, C. T.; Peterson, W. T.

    2010-04-01

    Euphausiids play a key role in many marine ecosystems as a link between primary producers and top predators. Understanding their demographic (i.e. age) structure is an essential tool to assess growth and recruitment as well as to determine how changes in environmental conditions might alter their condition and distribution. Age determination of crustaceans cannot be accomplished using traditional approaches, and here we evaluate the potential for biochemical products of tissue metabolism (termed lipofuscins) to determine the demographic structure of euphausiids in field collections . Lipofuscin was extracted from krill neural tissues (eye and eye-stalk), quantified using fluorescent intensity and normalized to tissue protein content to allow comparisons across animal sizes. Multiple fluorescent components from krill were observed, with the major product having a maximum fluorescence at excitation of 355 nm and emission of 510 nm. Needed age calibration of lipofuscin accumulation in Euphausia pacifica was accomplished using known-age individuals hatched and reared in the laboratory for over one year. Lipofuscin content extracted from neural tissues of laboratory-reared animals was highly correlated with the chronological age of animals ( r=0.87). Calibrated with laboratory lipofuscin accumulation rates, field-collected sub-adult and adult E. pacifica in the Northeast Pacific were estimated to be older than 100 days and younger than 1year. Comparative data for the Antarctic krill, E. superba showed much higher lipofuscin values suggesting a much longer lifespan than the more temperate species, E. pacifica. These regional comparisons suggest that biochemical indices allow a practical approach to estimate population age structure of diverse populations, and combined with other measurements can provide estimates of vital rates (i.e. longevity, mortality, growth) for krill populations in dynamic environments.

  3. Age estimation using pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary canines-A digital image analysis

    PubMed Central

    Juneja, Manjushree; Devi, Yashoda B. K.; Rakesh, N.; Juneja, Saurabh

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Determination of age of a subject is one of the most important aspects of medico-legal cases and anthropological research. Radiographs can be used to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition which is depicted by reduction in the pulp area. Materials and Methods: In this study, 200 patients of Karnataka aged between 18-72 years were selected for the study. Panoramic radiographs were made and indirectly digitized. Radiographic images of maxillary canines (RIC) were processed using a computer-aided drafting program (ImageJ). The variables pulp/root length (p), pulp/tooth length (r), pulp/root width at enamel-cementum junction (ECJ) level (a), pulp/root width at mid-root level (c), pulp/root width at midpoint level between ECJ level and mid-root level (b) and pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) were recorded. All the morphological variables including gender were statistically analyzed to derive regression equation for estimation of age. Results: It was observed that 2 variables ‘AR’ and ‘b’ contributed significantly to the fit and were included in the regression model, yielding the formula: Age = 87.305−480.455(AR)+48.108(b). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation with selected variables explained 96% of total variance with the median of the residuals of 0.1614 years and standard error of estimate of 3.0186 years. Conclusion: There is significant correlation between age and morphological variables ‘AR’ and ‘b’ and the derived population specific regression equation can be potentially used for estimation of chronological age of individuals of Karnataka origin. PMID:25177137

  4. Threshold groundwater ages and young water fractions estimated from 3H, 3He, and 14C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirchner, James; Jasechko, Scott

    2016-04-01

    It is widely recognized that a water sample taken from a running stream is not described by a single age, but rather by a distribution of ages. It is less widely recognized that the same principle holds true for groundwaters, as indicated by the commonly observed discordances between model ages obtained from different tracers (e.g., 3H vs 14C) in the same sample. Water age distributions are often characterized by their mean residence times (MRT's). However, MRT estimates are highly uncertain because they depend on the shape of the assumed residence time distribution (in particular on the thickness of the long-time tail), which is difficult or impossible to constrain with data. Furthermore, because MRT's are typically nonlinear functions of age tracer concentrations, they are subject to aggregation bias. That is, MRT estimates derived from a mixture of waters with different ages (and thus different tracer concentrations) will systematically underestimate the mixture's true mean age. Here, building on recent work with stable isotope tracers in surface waters [1-3], we present a new framework for using 3H, 3He and 14C to characterize groundwater age distributions. Rather than describing groundwater age distributions by their MRT, we characterize them by the fraction of the distribution that is younger or older than a threshold age. The threshold age that separates "young" from "old" water depends on the characteristics of the specific tracer, including its history of atmospheric inputs. Our approach depends only on whether a given slice of the age distribution is younger or older than the threshold age, but not on how much younger or older it is. Thus our approach is insensitive to the tails of the age distribution, and is therefore relatively unaffected by uncertainty in the distribution's shape. Here we show that concentrations of 3H, 3He, and 14C are almost linearly related to the fractions of water that are younger or older than specified threshold ages. These

  5. Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

    2007-01-01

    age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. The reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation for age estimation in children of South Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Kalyan, V. Siva; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Vegesna, Goutham Chakravarthy; Chirla, Anil; Varma, D. Maruthi

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Determining the age of a person in the absence of documentary evidence of birth is essential for legal and medico-legal purpose. Fishman method of skeletal maturation is widely used for this purpose; however, the reliability of this method for people with all geographic locations is not well-established. Aims and Objectives: In this study, we assessed various stages of carpal and metacarpal bone maturation and tested the reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation to estimate the age in South Indian population. We also evaluated the correlation between the chronological age (CA) and predicted age based on the Fishman method of skeletal maturation. Materials and Methods: Digital right hand-wrist radiographs of 330 individuals aged 9-20 years were obtained and the skeletal maturity stage for each subject was determined using Fishman method. The skeletal maturation indicator scores were obtained and analyzed with reference to CA and sex. Data was analyzed using the SPSS software package (version 12, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results: The study subjects had a tendency toward late maturation with the mean skeletal age (SA) estimated being significantly lowers (P < 0.05) than the mean CA at various skeletal maturity stages. Nevertheless, significant correlation was observed in this study between SA and CA for males (r = 0.82) and females (r = 0.85). Interestingly, female subjects were observed to be advanced in SA compared with males. Conclusion: Fishman method of skeletal maturation can be used as an alternative tool for the assessment of mean age of an individual of unknown CA in South Indian children. PMID:25097402

  7. The Solar Twin Planet Search. III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucci Maia, M.; Ramírez, I.; Meléndez, J.; Bedell, M.; Bean, J. L.; Asplund, M.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provides an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015, A&A, 579, A52) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the α-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. Aims: This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range (0.3-10.0 Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. Methods: We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. Results: The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041 ± 0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41σ. This is in excellent agreement with the relation first proposed by Nissen (2015). We found some outliers that turned out to be binaries where mass transfer may have enhanced the yttrium abundance. Given a precise measurement of [Y/Mg] with typical error of 0.02 dex in solar twins, our formula can be used to determine a stellar age with ~0.8 Gyr precision in the 0 to 10 Gyr range. Based on observations obtained at the Clay Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile and at the 3.6 m Telescope at the La Silla ESO Observatory, Chile (program ID 188.C-0265).

  8. The utility of ancient human DNA for improving allele age estimates, with implications for demographic models and tests of natural selection

    PubMed Central

    Sams, Aaron J.; Hawks, John; Keinan, Alon

    2015-01-01

    The age of polymorphic alleles in humans is often estimated from population genetic patterns in extant human populations, such as allele frequencies, linkage disequilibrium, and rate of mutations. Ancient DNA can improve the accuracy of such estimates, as well as facilitate testing the validity of demographic models underlying many population genetic methods. Specifically, the presence of an allele in a genome derived from an ancient sample testifies that the allele is at least as old as that sample. In this study, we consider a common method for estimating allele age based on allele frequency as applied to variants from the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Exome Sequencing Project. We view these estimates in the context of the presence or absence of each allele in the genomes of the 5300 year old Tyrolean Iceman, Ötzi, and of the 50,000 year old Altai Neandertal. Our results illuminate the accuracy of these estimates and their sensitivity to demographic events that were not included in the model underlying age estimation. Specifically, allele presence in the Iceman genome provides a good fit of allele age estimates to the expectation based on the age of that specimen. The equivalent based on the Neandertal genome leads to a poorer fit. This is likely due in part to the older age of the Neandertal and the older time of the split between modern humans and Neandertals, but also due to gene flow from Neandertals to modern humans not being considered in the underlying demographic model. Thus, the incorporation of ancient DNA can improve allele age estimation, demographic modeling, and tests of natural selection. Our results also point to the importance of considering a more diverse set of ancient samples for understanding the geographic and temporal range of individual alleles. PMID:25467111

  9. The utility of ancient human DNA for improving allele age estimates, with implications for demographic models and tests of natural selection.

    PubMed

    Sams, Aaron J; Hawks, John; Keinan, Alon

    2015-02-01

    The age of polymorphic alleles in humans is often estimated from population genetic patterns in extant human populations, such as allele frequencies, linkage disequilibrium, and rate of mutations. Ancient DNA can improve the accuracy of such estimates, as well as facilitate testing the validity of demographic models underlying many population genetic methods. Specifically, the presence of an allele in a genome derived from an ancient sample testifies that the allele is at least as old as that sample. In this study, we consider a common method for estimating allele age based on allele frequency as applied to variants from the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Exome Sequencing Project. We view these estimates in the context of the presence or absence of each allele in the genomes of the 5300 year old Tyrolean Iceman, Ötzi, and of the 50,000 year old Altai Neandertal. Our results illuminate the accuracy of these estimates and their sensitivity to demographic events that were not included in the model underlying age estimation. Specifically, allele presence in the Iceman genome provides a good fit of allele age estimates to the expectation based on the age of that specimen. The equivalent based on the Neandertal genome leads to a poorer fit. This is likely due in part to the older age of the Neandertal and the older time of the split between modern humans and Neandertals, but also due to gene flow from Neandertals to modern humans not being considered in the underlying demographic model. Thus, the incorporation of ancient DNA can improve allele age estimation, demographic modeling, and tests of natural selection. Our results also point to the importance of considering a more diverse set of ancient samples for understanding the geographic and temporal range of individual alleles.

  10. Parameter estimation using carbon-14 ages: Lessons from the Danube-Tisza interfluvial region of Hungary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.E.; Deak, J.; Revesz, K.

    2002-01-01

    Parameter estimation was conducted on a groundwater model of the Danube-Tisza interfluvial region of Hungary. The model was calibrated using 300 water levels and 48 14C ages. The model provided a test of regression methods for a system with a large number of observations. Up to 103 parameters representing horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities and boundary conductances were assigned using point values and bilinear interpolation between points. The lowest errors were obtained using an iterative approach with groups of parameters, rather than estimating all of the parameters simultaneously. The model with 48 parameters yielded the lowest standard error of regression.

  11. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  12. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  13. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  14. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  15. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  16. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

  17. Age estimation and the developing third molar tooth: an analysis of an Australian population using computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Briggs, C; Drummer, Olaf H

    2011-09-01

    The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for age estimation of unknown age individuals in the late adolescent years. Computed tomography (CT) images were assessed in an Australian population aged from 15 to 25 years for development trends, particularly concerning age estimation at the child/adult transition point of 18 years. The CT images were also compared to conventional radiographs to assess the developmental scoring agreement between the two and it was found that agreement of Demirjian scores between the two imaging modalities was excellent. The relatively wide age ranges (mean ± 2SD) indicate that the third molar is not a precise tool for age estimation (age ranges of 3-8 years) but is, however, a useful tool for discriminating the adult/child transition age of 18 years. In the current study 100% of females and 96% of males with completed roots were over 18 years of age.

  18. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Shankar, Anoop; Lee, Kristine E; Klein, Barbara EK; Muntner, Paul; Brazy, Peter C; Cruickshanks, Karen J; Nieto, F Javier; Danforth, Lorraine G; Schubert, Carla R; Tsai, Michael Y; Klein, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    Background: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample. Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women). We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG) equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L. Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1.73 m2 by the MDRD equation had cystatin C levels >1.23 mg/L; their mean cystatin C level was only 1 mg/L (interquartile range, 0.9–1.2 mg/L). This finding was similar for the CG equation. For the Mayo equation, 62.8% of those patients with GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1.73 m2 had cystatin C levels >1.23 mg/L; their mean cystatin C level was 1.3 mg/L (interquartile range, 1.2–1.5 mg/L). The MDRD and CG equations showed a false-positive rate of >10%. Discussion: We found that the MDRD and CG equations, the current standard to estimate GFR, appeared to overestimate the prevalence of CKD in a general population sample. PMID:20730018

  19. Estimating Age-Specific Immunity and Force of Infection of Varicella Zoster Virus in Norway Using Mixture Models

    PubMed Central

    Rimseliene, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero

    2016-01-01

    This study applies mixture modelling to examine age-specific immunity to varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection in Norway based on the first large-scale serological study in the general population. We estimated the seropositive proportions at different ages and calculated the underlying force of infection by using a sample of 2103 residual sera obtained from patients seeking primary and hospital care. A rapid increase in the VZV-associated immunity is observed in the first years of life with 63% of children being immune by age 5. The increase in the immunity levels slows down thereafter, with a large proportion of adults still susceptible by age 20 (around 14.5%), thus at risk of serious sequelae of varicella infection. The corresponding force of infection peaks during the preschool period, subsequently declines to a minimum between ages 10 and 20 years, and afterwards moderately increases to reach a plateau lasting throughout the childbearing period. In comparison with the traditional cut-off approach, mixture modelling used the whole data without producing any inconclusive cases, led to an unbiased classification of individuals between susceptible and immune, and provided a smoother immune profile by age. These findings represent an important step towards any decision about the introduction of varicella vaccination in Norway, as they are a primary input for mathematical transmission models aimed at evaluating potential vaccination scenarios. PMID:27689800

  20. The role of CT analyses of the sternal end of the clavicle and the first costal cartilage in age estimation.

    PubMed

    Milenkovic, Petar; Djuric, Marija; Milovanovic, Petar; Djukic, Ksenija; Zivkovic, Vladimir; Nikolic, Slobodan

    2014-09-01

    The ossification patterns of medial clavicle and the first costal cartilage represent interesting features of the same anatomical region which are accessible for conventional radiographic and computed tomography (CT) examinations in the same field of view. This study encompassed Serbian population and was carried out to examine whether CT analyses of medial clavicle and the first costal cartilage could be successfully applied, either individually or conjointly, in the age assessment. The study was based on CT examinations of thoracic region of 154 patients, aged between 15 and 35 years. Besides radiodensity and stages of epiphyseal cartilage ossification of medial clavicle, the study detected other features that expressed significant correlation with age, such as calculated anterior to posterior cortical thickness ratio, medullar canal diameter, and clavicular shaft diameter. However, although calculated ossified and calcified linear projections' (OCP) stages correlated to age, the distinction between stages was not satisfying. The interaction between the ossification status of medial clavicle and OCP was not significantly influenced by age. The results of our study outlined interesting new age predictors with mutual relationship: acquired radio density of the sternal epiphyseal-metaphyseal region and radio density of the first costal cartilage. Intersex variability was observed in several age-related features: calculated anterior to posterior cortical thickness ratio, diameter of medullar canal, and diameter of the clavicular shaft. Altogether, our study identified several radiological features of the first costal cartilage and medial clavicle that correlated with age and which could be applied as additional guidance for age estimation in each specific case. PMID:24957198

  1. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

  2. Dental maturity curves in Finnish children: Demirjian's method revisited and polynomial functions for age estimation.

    PubMed

    Chaillet, Nils; Nyström, Marjatta; Kataja, Matti; Demirjian, Arto

    2004-11-01

    Dental maturity was studied from 2213 dental panoramic radiographs of healthy ethnic Finns from southern Finland, aged between 2 and 19 years. The aim was to provide new Finnish maturity tables and curves and to compare the efficiency of Demirjian's method when differently weighted scores and polynomial regressions are used. The inter-ethnic variations lead us to calculate specific Finnish weighted scores. Demirjian's method gives maturity score as a function of age and seems better adapted for clinicians because, in their case, the maturity score is unknown. Polynomial functions give age as a function of maturity score and are statically adapted for age estimation studies. Finnish dental maturity tables and development curves are given for Demirjian's method and for polynomial functions. Sexual dimorphism is established for the same weighted score for girls and boys, and girls present a greater maturity than boys for all of age groups. Polynomial functions are highly reliable (0.19% of misclassifies) and the percentile method, using Finnish weighted scores, is very accurate (+/- 1.95 years on average, between 2 and 18 years of age). This suggests that polynomial functions are most useful in forensic sciences, while Demirjian's method is most useful for dental health clinicians.

  3. Exfoliative cytology: A possible tool in age estimation in forensic odontology

    PubMed Central

    Shetty, Devi Charan; Wadhwan, Vijay; Khanna, Kaveri Surya; Jain, Anshi; Gupta, Amit

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Objective: The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from their buccal smears by comparing the average cell size using image analysis morphometric software. Materials and Methods: Buccal smears were collected from 100 apparently healthy individuals. After fixation in 95% alcohol, the smears were stained using standard Papanicolaou laboratory procedure. The average cell size was measured using Dewinter's image analysis software version 4.3. Statistical analysis of the data was done using one-way ANOVA, Bonferroni procedures. Results: The results showed significant decrease in average cell size of individual with increase in age. The difference was highly significant in age group of above 60 years. Conclusion: Age-related alterations are observed in buccal smears. PMID:25709323

  4. Estimating dose rates to organs as a function of age following internal exposure to radionuclides

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Cristy, M.; Crawford-Brown, D.J.; Williams, L.R.

    1984-03-01

    The AGEDOS methodology allows estimates of dose rates, as a function of age, to radiosensitive organs and tissues in the human body at arbitrary times during or after internal exposure to radioactive material. Presently there are few, if any, radionuclides for which sufficient metabolic information is available to allow full use of all features of the methodology. The intention has been to construct the methodology so that optimal information can be gained from a mixture of the limited amount of age-dependent, nuclide-specific data and the generally plentiful age-dependent physiological data now available. Moreover, an effort has been made to design the methodology so that constantly accumulating metabolic information can be incorporated with minimal alterations in the AGEDOS computer code. Some preliminary analyses performed by the authors, using the AGEDOS code in conjunction with age-dependent risk factors developed from the A-bomb survivor data and other studies, has indicated that the doses and subsequent risks of eventually experiencing radiogenic cancers may vary substantially with age for some exposure scenarios and may be relatively invariant with age for other scenarios. We believe that the AGEDOS methodology provides a convenient and efficient means for performing the internal dosimetry.

  5. Estimates of nondisclosure of cigarette smoking among pregnant and nonpregnant women of reproductive age in the United States.

    PubMed

    Dietz, Patricia M; Homa, David; England, Lucinda J; Burley, Kim; Tong, Van T; Dube, Shanta R; Bernert, John T

    2011-02-01

    Although clinic-based studies have used biochemical validation to estimate the percentage of pregnant women who deny smoking but are actually smokers, a population-based estimate of nondisclosure of smoking status in US pregnant women has not been calculated. The authors analyzed data from the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and estimated the percentage of 994 pregnant and 3,203 nonpregnant women 20-44 years of age who did not report smoking but had serum cotinine levels that exceeded the defined cut point for active smoking (nondisclosure). Active smoking was defined as self-reporting smoking or having a serum cotinine concentration that exceeded the cut point for active smoking. Overall, 13.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.8, 17.1) of pregnant women and 29.7% (95% CI: 27.3, 32.1) of nonpregnant women were active smokers. Nondisclosure was higher among pregnant active smokers (22.9%, 95% CI: 11.8, 34.6) than among nonpregnant smokers (9.2%, 95% CI: 7.1, 11.2). Among pregnant active smokers, nondisclosure was associated with younger age (20-24 years). Among nonpregnant active smokers, nondisclosure was associated with Mexican-American and non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity. Studies and surveillance systems that rely on self-reported smoking status are subject to underestimation of smoking prevalence, especially among pregnant women, and underreporting may vary by demographic characteristics.

  6. Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

  7. Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age--Brazilian indices.

    PubMed

    de Oliveira, Fernando Toledo; Capelozza, Ana Lúcia Álvares; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; de Bullen, Izabel Regina Fischer Rubira

    2012-06-10

    Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively.

  8. Third molar development: evaluation of nine tooth development registration techniques for age estimations.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, Patrick W; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2013-03-01

    Multiple third molar development registration techniques exist. Therefore the aim of this study was to detect which third molar development registration technique was most promising to use as a tool for subadult age estimation. On a collection of 1199 panoramic radiographs the development of all present third molars was registered following nine different registration techniques [Gleiser, Hunt (GH); Haavikko (HV); Demirjian (DM); Raungpaka (RA); Gustafson, Koch (GK); Harris, Nortje (HN); Kullman (KU); Moorrees (MO); Cameriere (CA)]. Regression models with age as response and the third molar registration as predictor were developed for each registration technique separately. The MO technique disclosed highest R(2) (F 51%, M 45%) and lowest root mean squared error (F 3.42 years; M 3.67 years) values, but differences with other techniques were small in magnitude. The amount of stages utilized in the explored staging techniques slightly influenced the age predictions.

  9. Equations to estimate fetal age at the moment of death in the Mexican population.

    PubMed

    Chávez-Martínez, Perla; Ortega-Palma, Albertina; Castrejón-Caballero, José Luis; Arteaga-Martínez, Manuel

    2016-09-01

    Metric standards are presented for the estimation of fetal age at the time of death in the Mexican population. To obtain these standards, both metric and radiological studies were conducted on 97 fetuses and complete stillborn infants of both sexes, phenotypically normal between 10 and 38 weeks of morphological age. All the fetuses used were the product of spontaneous abortions in Mexico City between 1990 and 2000. Equations were obtained by calibrating quadratic linear regression models adjusted for the diaphyseal length of the humerus, radius, ulna, femur, tibia and fibula, characterized as the most adequate indicators to represent the growth of long bones in this age group, and verified by the evaluation of the model assumptions and the coefficient of determination (R(2)). To conclude, these models facilitate a more precise prediction in fetuses of the Mexican population, constituting the first metric standards of their type at a national level.

  10. The Impact of Starspots on Mass and Age Estimates for Pre-main Sequence Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somers, Garrett; Pinsonneault, Marc H.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact of starspots on the evolution of late-type stars during the pre-main sequence (pre-MS). We find that heavy spot coverage increases the radii of stars by 4-10%, consistent with inflation factors in eclipsing binary systems, and suppresses the rate of pre-MS lithium depletion, leading to a dispersion in zero-age MS Li abundance (comparable to observed spreads) if a range of spot properties exist within clusters from 3-10 Myr. This concordance with data implies that spots induce a range of radii at fixed mass during the pre-MS. These spots decrease the luminosity and T eff of stars, leading to a displacement on the HR diagram. This displacement causes isochrone derived masses and ages to be systematically under-estimated, and can lead to the spurious appearance of an age spread in a co-eval population.

  11. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  12. Online state of health estimation on NMC cells based on predictive analytics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berecibar, Maitane; Devriendt, Floris; Dubarry, Matthieu; Villarreal, Igor; Omar, Noshin; Verbeke, Wouter; Van Mierlo, Joeri

    2016-07-01

    Accurate on board state of health estimation is a key battery management system function to provide optimal management of the battery system under control. In this regard, this paper presents an extensive study and comparison of three of commonly used supervised learning methods for state of health estimation in Graphite/Nickel Manganese Cobalt oxide cells. The three methods were based from the study of both incremental capacity and differential voltage curves. According to the ageing evolution of both curves, features were extracted and used as inputs for the estimation techniques. Ordinary Least Squares, Multilayer Perceptron and Support Vector Machine were used as the estimation techniques and accurate results were obtained while requiring a low computational effort. Moreover, this work allows a deep comparison of the different estimation techniques in terms of accuracy, online estimation and BMS applicability. In addition, estimation can be developed by partial charging and/or partial discharging, reducing the required maintenance time.

  13. Telemetry-based mortality estimates of juvenile spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedl, Sarah E.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Scharf, Frederick S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

    2013-01-01

    We estimated natural mortality rates (M) of age-1 Spot Leiostomus xanthurus by using a sonic telemetry approach. Sonic transmitters were surgically implanted into a total of 123 age-1 Spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks during spring 2009 and 2010, and the fish were monitored by using a stationary acoustic receiver array and manual tracking. Fates of telemetered Spot were inferred based on telemetry information from estimated locations and swimming speeds. Potential competitors of age-1 Spot were assessed through simultaneous otter trawl sampling, while potential predators of Spot were collected using gill nets and trammel nets. The number of inferred natural mortalities was zero in 2009 (based on 29 telemetered Spot at risk) and four in 2010 (based on 52 fish at risk), with fish being at risk for up to about 70 d each year. Catches of potential competitors or predators did not differ between years, and age-1 Spot were not found in analyzed stomach contents of potential predators. Our estimated 30-d M of 0.03 (95% credible interval = 0.01–0.07) was lower than that predicted from weight-based (M = 0.07) and life-history-based (M = 0.06–0.36) estimates. Our field-based estimate of M for age-1 Spot in this estuarine system can assist in the assessment and management of Spot by allowing a direct comparison with M-values predicted from fish size or life history characteristics. The field telemetry and statistical analysis techniques developed here provide guidance for future telemetry studies of relatively small fish in open, dynamic habitat systems, as they highlight strengths and weaknesses of using a telemetry approach to estimate M.

  14. The Future of Age-Based Public Policy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hudson, Robert B.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    This issue deals with the future of an age-based public policy. Articles discuss the history of age-based public policy; the competing bases for benefits; population dynamics; Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare; employer policies; and local and state policies. Describes California's Linkages Program. (JOW)

  15. Graphical and Demographic Synopsis of the Captive Cohort Method for Estimating Population Age Structure in the Wild

    PubMed Central

    Carey, James R.; Müller, Hans-Georg; Wang, Jane-Ling; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Diamantidis, Alexis; Kouloussis, Nikos

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to complement the literature concerned with the captive cohort method for estimating age structure including (1) graphic techniques to visualize and thus better understand the underlying life table identity in which the age structure of a stationary population equals the time-to-death distribution of the individuals within it; (2) re-derive the basic model for estimating age structure in non-stationary population in demographic rather than statistical notation; and (3) describe a simplified method for estimating changes in the mean age of a wild population. PMID:22776134

  16. Using GC × GC-FID profiles to estimate the age of weathered gasoline samples.

    PubMed

    Zorzetti, Brianne M; Harynuk, James J

    2011-11-01

    Predicting the amount of time that a petroleum mixture has been exposed to weathering effects has applications in areas of environmental and other forensic investigations, such as aiding in determining the cause and intent of a fire. Historically, research on the evaporation rates of hydrocarbon mixtures has focused on forensic oil spill identification and predicting if a fresh sample could be weathered to give an observed composition in an aged sample. Relatively little attention has focused on approaching the problem from the other direction: estimating exposure time based on the observed composition of a weathered sample at a given time and assuming a prior composition. Here, we build upon our previous research into the weathering of model mixtures by extending our work to gasoline. Samples of gasoline with varying octane ratings and from several vendors were weathered under controlled conditions and their composition monitored over time by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC × GC). A variety of chemometric models were explored, including partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear PLS (PolyPLS) and locally weighted regression (LWR). A hierarchical application of multivariate techniques was able to predict the time for which a sample had been exposed to evaporative weathering. Partial least squares discriminant analysis could predict whether a sample was relatively fresh (<12 h exposure time) or highly weathered (>20 h exposure time). Subsequent regression models for these classes were evaluated for accuracy using the root mean square error of prediction. LWR was the most successful, whereby fresh and highly weathered samples were predicted to within 30 min and 5 h of exposure, respectively.

  17. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  18. A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the

  19. Age estimation by dental developmental stages in children and adolescents in Iceland.

    PubMed

    Vidisdottir, Sigridur Rosa; Richter, Svend

    2015-12-01

    Studies have shown that it is necessary to create a database for dental maturity for every population and compare it to others. The present study is the first one for dental development in the Icelandic population the age range being 4-24 years. It will help in forensic dental age estimation and will also help dentists, physicians, anthropologists, archaeologists and other professionals who rely on developmental age assessment in children and adolescents. In this present retrospective cross-sectional study, dental maturity was determined in 1100 Icelandic children and adolescents from orthopantomograms (OPGs). The first 100 were used for a pilot study and the remaining 1000 for the main study. A total of 23 subjects were excluded. The sample consisted of 508 girls and 469 boys from the age of 4-24 years and a dental developmental scoring system was used as a standard for determination of dental maturity stages. A total of 200 OPGs were studied both on the left and right side and the remaining on the right side. Dental maturity was established for all teeth and both genders, when the sample permitted, from the beginning of crown formation to the root apex closure. The Cronbach's Alpha reliability test showed high reliability, R=0.982. Girls in Iceland reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 17.81 years of age for the maxillary and at 18.47 years for the mandibular teeth. Boys reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 18.00 years of age in the maxilla and 17.63 in the mandible. There was no significant difference between left and right side (r=0.95-1.00) and there was no gender difference, except in root formation in maxillary and mandibular canines where girls reached root completed earlier than boys. A reliable database has been established in Iceland for tooth development in the age range of 4-24 years, which is compatible with international studies. These results will help forensic odontologists and other professionals to estimate with

  20. A Bayesian approach to estimate the prevalence of low height-for-age from the prevalence of low weight-for-age.

    PubMed

    Reichenheim, M E; Best, N G

    2000-01-01

    Victora et al. (1998) proposed the use of low weight-for-age prevalence to estimate the prevalence of height-for-age deficit in Brazilian children. This procedure was justified by the need to simplify methods used in the context of community health programs. From the same perspective, the present article broadens this proposal by using a Bayesian approach (based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods) to deal with the imprecision resulting from Victora et al.'s model. In order to avoid invalid estimated prevalence values which can occur with the original linear model, truncation or a logit transformation of the prevalences are suggested. The Bayesian approach is illustrated using a community study as an example. Imprecision arising from methodological complexities in the community study design, such as multi-stage sampling and clustering, is easily handled within the Bayesian framework by introducing a hierarchical or multilevel model structure. Since growth deficit was also evaluated in the community study, the article may also serve to validate the procedure proposed by Victora et al.

  1. Dental age estimation in a Brazilian adult population using Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    Azevedo, Alana de Cássia Silva; Alves, Nathalia Zanini; Michel-Crosato, Edgard; Rocha, Marcos; Cameriere, Roberto; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a specific formula to estimate age in a Brazilian adult population and to compare the original formula from Cameriere to this Brazilian formula. The sample comprised 1,772 periapical radiographs from 443 subjects (219 men, 224 women) that were organized into 12 groups according to sex (men or women) and age (20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 years and older). The films were analyzed using the criteria described by Cameriere et al. (2004) and Adobe Photoshop®. We obtained a mean error of 8.56 (SD = 5.80) years for tooth 13, 7.99 (SD = 5.78) years for tooth 23, 8.38 (SD = 6.26) years for tooth 33, and 8.20 (SD = 6.54) years for tooth 43. When teeth were combined in the analysis, we observed lower mean errors. The Brazilian formula developed from this sample group was more accurate than Cameriere's formula. However, other factors must be considered to improve age estimates in adults. PMID:25590504

  2. Dental age estimation in a Brazilian adult population using Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    Azevedo, Alana de Cássia Silva; Alves, Nathalia Zanini; Michel-Crosato, Edgard; Rocha, Marcos; Cameriere, Roberto; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a specific formula to estimate age in a Brazilian adult population and to compare the original formula from Cameriere to this Brazilian formula. The sample comprised 1,772 periapical radiographs from 443 subjects (219 men, 224 women) that were organized into 12 groups according to sex (men or women) and age (20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 years and older). The films were analyzed using the criteria described by Cameriere et al. (2004) and Adobe Photoshop®. We obtained a mean error of 8.56 (SD = 5.80) years for tooth 13, 7.99 (SD = 5.78) years for tooth 23, 8.38 (SD = 6.26) years for tooth 33, and 8.20 (SD = 6.54) years for tooth 43. When teeth were combined in the analysis, we observed lower mean errors. The Brazilian formula developed from this sample group was more accurate than Cameriere's formula. However, other factors must be considered to improve age estimates in adults.

  3. Estimating the age of fire in the Cape flora of South Africa from an orchid phylogeny

    PubMed Central

    Bytebier, Benny; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bellstedt, Dirk U.; Linder, H. Peter

    2011-01-01

    Fire may have been a crucial component in the evolution of the Cape flora of South Africa, a region characterized by outstanding levels of species richness and endemism. However, there is, to date, no critical assessment of the age of the modern fire regime in this biome. Here, we exploit the presence of two obligate post-fire flowering clades in the orchid genus Disa, in conjunction with a robust, well-sampled and dated molecular phylogeny, to estimate the age by which fire must have been present. Our results indicate that summer drought (winter rainfall), the fire regime and the fynbos vegetation are several million years older than currently suggested. Summer drought and the fynbos vegetation are estimated to date back to at least the Early Miocene (ca 19.5 Ma). The current fire regime may have been established during a period of global cooling that followed the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (ca 15 Ma), which led to the expansion of open habitats and increased aridification. The first appearance of Disa species in the grassland biome, as well as in the subalpine habitat, is in striking agreement with reliable geological and palaeontological evidence of the age of these ecosystems, thus corroborating the efficacy of our methods. These results change our understanding of the historical mechanisms underlying botanical evolution in southern Africa, and confirm the potential of using molecular phylogenies to date events for which other information is lacking or inconclusive. PMID:20685712

  4. The chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han population in southwestern China.

    PubMed

    Qing, Maofeng; Qiu, Lihua; Gao, Zhi; Bhandari, Kishor

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate the chronology of third molar mineralization in Han population of southwestern China and find its unique characteristics so that it would provide a reference in several legal cases like forensic age estimation. The study used Demirjian's staging method to study 2192 orthopantomograms of 984 male and 1208 female subjects aged between 8 and 25 years. The statistical data was analyzed by Student's t test and ANOVA. The conclusions of the study are: (1) The chronological mineralization age of third molars of Han population in Southwestern China is similar to the Turkish and the Japanese, was earlier than the Austrian and Han of South China, but later than the Spanish. (2) The mineralization timing of the third molars between two sides in maxilla or mandible has no significant differences in the same gender group. (3) There is no significant difference in mineralization of third molars between male and female, except for tooth 48 in Demirjian's stage E. (4) The mineralization of third molar in maxilla is earlier than mandible.

  5. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    DOE PAGES

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; Broers, Hans Peter

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is

  6. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    SciTech Connect

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; Broers, Hans Peter

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the

  7. Sample Based Unit Liter Dose Estimates

    SciTech Connect

    JENSEN, L.

    2000-04-13

    The Tank Waste Characterization Program has taken many core samples, grab samples, and auger samples from the single-shell and double-shell tanks during the past 10 years. Consequently, the amount of sample data available has increased, both in terms of quantity of sample results and the number of tanks characterized. More and better data is available than when the current radiological and toxicological source terms used in the Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) (FDH 1999a) and the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) (FDH 1999b) were developed. The Nuclear Safety and Licensing (NS and L) organization wants to use the new data to upgrade the radiological and toxicological source terms used in the BIO and FSAR. The NS and L organization requested assistance in producing a statistically based process for developing the source terms. This report describes the statistical techniques used and the assumptions made to support the development of a new radiological source term for liquid and solid wastes stored in single-shell and double-shell tanks. The results given in this report are a revision to similar results given in an earlier version of the document (Jensen and Wilmarth 1999). The main difference between the results in this document and the earlier version is that the dose conversion factors (DCF) for converting {mu}Ci/g or {mu}Ci/L to Sv/L (sieverts per liter) have changed. There are now two DCFs, one based on ICRP-68 and one based on ICW-71 (Brevick 2000).

  8. Age estimation using annulations in root cementum of human teeth: A comparison between longitudinal and cross sections

    PubMed Central

    Mallar, Kavya B; Girish, HC; Murgod, Sanjay; Kumar, BN Yathindra

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. Research indicates that cemental annulations may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of human skeleton for age estimation. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five teeth were sectioned longitudinally, and twenty-five teeth were cross-sectioned at the mid portion of the root. Sections were ground, mounted and viewed under a bright light microscope. The area selected for counting was photographed under ×10 objective, magnified 5 times; cemental lines were counted and added to the eruption age of that patient, to obtain the chronological age. The statistical software SAS 9.2, SPSS 15.0, Stata 10.1, MedCalc 9.0.1, Systat 12.0 and R environment ver.2.11.1 were used for the analysis of the data. Results: The P value comparing actual age and calculated age using longitudinal sections is moderately significant and the P value comparing actual age and calculated age in the age group of <30 years is significant. Interpretation and Conclusion: The middle third of tooth root was most suitable to count annulations. The cross sections are easier to count but longitudinal sections give more appropriate results on age estimation. Though the procedure predicts under assessment of age in the younger age group and over assessment of age in the older age group, it provides a close estimate of the actual age of an individual. It can be correlated with other age estimation methods for better reliability. PMID:26980973

  9. Validation of an Algorithm to Estimate Gestational Age in Electronic Health Plan Databases

    PubMed Central

    Li, Qian; Andrade, Susan E.; Cooper, William O.; Davis, Robert L.; Dublin, Sascha; Hammad, Tarek A.; Pawloski, Pamala A.; Pinheiro, Simone P.; Raebel, Marsha A.; Scott, Pamela E.; Smith, David H.; Dashevsky, Inna; Haffenreffer, Katie; Johnson, Karin E.; Toh, Sengwee

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To validate an algorithm that uses delivery date and diagnosis codes to define gestational age at birth in electronic health plan databases. Methods Using data from 225,384 live born deliveries among women aged 15–45 years in 2001–2007 within 8 of the 11 health plans participating in the Medication Exposure in Pregnancy Risk Evaluation Program, we compared 1) the algorithm-derived gestational age versus the “gold-standard” gestational age obtained from the infant birth certificate files; and 2) the prenatal exposure status of two antidepressants (fluoxetine and sertraline) and two antibiotics (amoxicillin and azithromycin) as determined by the algorithm-derived versus the gold-standard gestational age. Results The mean algorithm-derived gestational age at birth was lower than the mean obtained from the birth certificate files among singleton deliveries (267.9 versus 273.5 days) but not among multiple-gestation deliveries (253.9 versus 252.6 days). The algorithm-derived prenatal exposure to the antidepressants had a sensitivity and a positive predictive value (PPV) of ≥95%, and a specificity and a negative predictive value (NPV) of almost 100%. Sensitivity and PPV were both ≥90%, and specificity and NPV were both >99% for the antibiotics. Conclusions A gestational age algorithm based upon electronic health plan data correctly classified medication exposure status in most live born deliveries, but misclassification may be higher for drugs typically used for short durations. PMID:23335117

  10. Estimation of treatment effects based on possibly misspecified Cox regression.

    PubMed

    Hattori, Satoshi; Henmi, Masayuki

    2012-10-01

    In randomized clinical trials, a treatment effect on a time-to-event endpoint is often estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model. The maximum partial likelihood estimator does not make sense if the proportional hazard assumption is violated. Xu and O'Quigley (Biostatistics 1:423-439, 2000) proposed an estimating equation, which provides an interpretable estimator for the treatment effect under model misspecification. Namely it provides a consistent estimator for the log-hazard ratio among the treatment groups if the model is correctly specified, and it is interpreted as an average log-hazard ratio over time even if misspecified. However, the method requires the assumption that censoring is independent of treatment group, which is more restricted than that for the maximum partial likelihood estimator and is often violated in practice. In this paper, we propose an alternative estimating equation. Our method provides an estimator of the same property as that of Xu and O'Quigley under the usual assumption for the maximum partial likelihood estimation. We show that our estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, and derive a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. If the proportional hazards assumption holds, the efficiency of the estimator can be improved by applying the covariate adjustment method based on the semiparametric theory proposed by Lu and Tsiatis (Biometrika 95:679-694, 2008). PMID:22527680

  11. Snow Water Equivalent estimation based on satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macchiavello, G.; Pesce, F.; Boni, G.; Gabellani, S.

    2009-09-01

    The availability of remotely sensed images and them analysis is a powerful tool for monitoring the extension and typology of snow cover over territory where the in situ measurements are often difficult. Information on snow are fundamental for monitoring and forecasting the available water above all in regions at mid latitudes as Mediterranean where snowmelt may cause floods. The hydrological model requirements and the daily acquisitions of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), drove, in previous research activities, to the development of a method to automatically map the snow cover from multi-spectral images. But, the major hydrological parameter related to the snow pack is the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). This represents a direct measure of stored water in the basin. Because of it, the work was focused to the daily estimation of SWE from MODIS images. But, the complexity of this aim, based only on optical data, doesn’t find any information in literature. Since, from the spectral range of MODIS data it is not possible to extract a direct relation between spectral information and the SWE. Then a new method, respectful of the physic of the snow, was defined and developed. Reminding that the snow water equivalent is the product of the three factors as snow density, snow depth and the snow covered areas, the proposed approach works separately on each of these physical behaviors. Referring to the physical characteristic of snow, the snow density is function of the snow age, then it was studied a new method to evaluate this. Where, a module for snow age simulation from albedo information was developed. It activates an age counter updated by new snow information set to estimate snow age from zero accumulation status to the end of melting season. The height of the snow pack, can be retrieved by adopting relation between vegetation and snow depth distributions. This computes snow height distribution by the relation between snow cover fraction and the

  12. Evaluation of economic effects of population ageing--methodology of estimating indirect costs.

    PubMed

    Schubert, Agata; Czech, Marcin; Gębska-Kuczerowska, Anita

    2015-01-01

    Process of demographic ageing, especially in recent decades, is steadily growing in dynamics and importance due to increasing health-related needs and expectations with regard to a guarantee of social services. Elaboration of the most effective model of care, tailored to Polish conditions, requires an estimation of actual costs of this care, including indirect costs which are greatly related to informal care. The fact that the costs of informal care are omitted, results from a determined approach to analyses. It is discussed only from a perspective of budget for health and does not cover societal aspects. In such situation, however, the costs borne by a receiver of services are neglected. As a consequence, the costs of informal care are underestimated or often excluded from calculations, even if they include indirect costs. Comprehensive methodological approach for estimating the costs of informal care seems to be important for a properly conducted economic evaluation in health care sector.

  13. Demirjian's system for estimating the dental age of northeastern Brazilian children.

    PubMed

    Maia, Maria Cristina Germano; Martins, Maria da Gloria Almeida; Germano, Francisco Alcides; Brandão Neto, Jose; da Silva, Carlos Antonio Bruno

    2010-07-15

    Since Demirjian's system of estimating dental maturity was first described, many researchers from different countries have tested its accuracy among diverse populations. Some of these studies have pointed out a need to determine population-specific standards. In Brazil, the Northeast region is the one that most suffers the negative impact of exodus, specially related to the increase of abandoned children in the cities. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy of Demirjian's system for assessing the dental maturity of northeastern Brazilian children, so as to present a scale for maturity score conversion into dental age developed specifically for this population. This could be used for forensic, anthropological and legal matters, and also as a model for other countries attempting to formulate their own conversion scales. Panoramic radiographs of 1,491 children (821 females and 670 males), aged 7 to 13 years, from Ceará state, northeast Brazil, were assessed by a single observer to determine dental age (DA) according to Demirjian's system. The mean percentage of intra-observer agreement was 86.6%, with a mean Cohen's Kappa coefficient of 0.67 (substantial agreement). The DA was compared by paired t-test to subjects' chronological age (CA). The differences between CA and DA in all age groups were statistically significant (p<0.0001), demonstrating a great advancement in DA among Brazilians. Scatter plots were drawn for both genders, and the data were fitted to a growth curve, y=100/(1+e(-a(x)-(b))). Graphs corresponding to the 50(th) percentile curves were produced. A table with new values for the conversion of maturity score into dental age for northeastern Brazilian children is presented. The great advancement in DA, as obtained by Demirjian's system in this population, justified the determination of specific scores for dental maturity assessment.

  14. Estimation of mechanical properties of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-10-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy- impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ``saturation`` impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common ``lower-bound`` J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  15. Statistical amplitude scale estimation for quantization-based watermarking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shterev, Ivo D.; Lagendijk, Reginald L.; Heusdens, Richard

    2004-06-01

    Quantization-based watermarking schemes are vulnerable to amplitude scaling. Therefore the scaling factor has to be accounted for either at the encoder, or at the decoder, prior to watermark decoding. In this paper we derive the marginal probability density model for the watermarked and attacked data, when the attack channel consists of amplitude scaling followed by additive noise. The encoder is Quantization Index Modulation with Distortion Compensation. Based on this model we obtain two estimation procedures for the scale parameter. The first approach is based on Fourier Analysis of the probability density function. The estimation of the scaling parameter relies on the structure of the received data. The second approach that we obtain is the Maximum Likelihood estimator of the scaling factor. We study the performance of the estimation procedures theoretically and experimentally with real audio signals, and compare them to other well known approaches for amplitude scale estimation in the literature.

  16. Localized Dictionaries Based Orientation Field Estimation for Latent Fingerprints.

    PubMed

    Xiao Yang; Jianjiang Feng; Jie Zhou

    2014-05-01

    Dictionary based orientation field estimation approach has shown promising performance for latent fingerprints. In this paper, we seek to exploit stronger prior knowledge of fingerprints in order to further improve the performance. Realizing that ridge orientations at different locations of fingerprints have different characteristics, we propose a localized dictionaries-based orientation field estimation algorithm, in which noisy orientation patch at a location output by a local estimation approach is replaced by real orientation patch in the local dictionary at the same location. The precondition of applying localized dictionaries is that the pose of the latent fingerprint needs to be estimated. We propose a Hough transform-based fingerprint pose estimation algorithm, in which the predictions about fingerprint pose made by all orientation patches in the latent fingerprint are accumulated. Experimental results on challenging latent fingerprint datasets show the proposed method outperforms previous ones markedly.

  17. Vision-based range estimation using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Phillip N.; Sridhar, Banavar; Hussien, Bassam

    1992-01-01

    Pilot aiding during low-altitude flight depends on the ability to detect and locate obstacles near the helicopter's intended flightpath. Computer-vision-based methods provide one general approach for obstacle detection and range estimation. Several algorithms have been developed for this purpose, but have not been tested with actual flight data. This paper presents results obtained using helicopter flight data with a feature-based range estimation algorithm. A method for recursively estimating range using a Kalman filter with a monocular sequence of images and knowledge of the camera's motion is described. The helicopter flight experiment and four resulting datasets are discussed. Finally the performance of the range estimation algorithm is explored in detail based on comparison of the range estimates with true range measurements collected during the flight experiment.

  18. Vision-based range estimation using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Phillip N.; Sridhar, Banavar; Hussein, Bassam

    1992-01-01

    Pilot aiding during low-altitude flight depends on the ability to detect and locate obstacles near the helicopter's intended flightpath. Computer-vision-based methods provide one general approach for obstacle detection and range estimation. Several algorithms have been developed for this purpose, but have not been tested with actual flight data. This paper presents results obtained using helicopter flight data with a feature-based range estimation algorithm. A method for recursively estimating range using a Kalman filter with a monocular sequence of images and knowledge of the camera's motion is described. The helicopter flight experiment and one of four resulting datasets is briefly discussed. Finally the performance of the range estimation algorithm is explored based on comparison of the range estimates with true range measurements collected during the flight experiment.

  19. Estimation of the age at onset in spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 Cuban patients by survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Almaguer-Mederos, L E; Falcón, N S; Almira, Y R; Zaldivar, Y G; Almarales, D C; Góngora, E M; Herrera, M P; Batallán, K E; Armiñán, R R; Manresa, M V; Cruz, G S; Laffita-Mesa, J; Cyuz, T M; Chang, V; Auburger, G; Gispert, S; Pérez, L V

    2010-08-01

    Previous studies have investigated the close association that exists between CAG repeat number and the age at onset in SCA2 = spinocerebellar ataxia type 2. These studies have focused on affected individuals. To further characterize this association and estimate the risk of a carrier developing SCA2 at a particular age as a function of a specific CAG repeat size, we have analyzed a large group of 924 individuals, including 394 presymptomatic and 530 affected individuals with a CAG repeat length of 32-79 units. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we obtained cumulative probability curves for disease manifestation at a particular age for each CAG repeat length in the 34-45 range. These curves were significantly different (p < 0.001) and showed small overlap. All these information may be very valuable in predictive-testing programs, in the planning of studies for the identification of other genetic and environmental factors as modifiers of age at onset, and in the design of clinical trials for people at enlarged risk for SCA2. PMID:20095980

  20. Estimation of legal age using calcification stages of third molars in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Streckbein, Philipp; Reichert, Isabelle; Verhoff, Marcel A; Bödeker, Rolf-Hasso; Kähling, Christopher; Wilbrand, Jan-Falco; Schaaf, Heidrun; Howaldt, Hans-Peter; May, Andreas

    2014-12-01

    The increased number of adolescents and young adults with unknown or inaccurately given date of birth is a current issue in justice and legal medicine. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which third molar calcification stages assessed on panoramic X-rays could be useful as additional criteria for forensic age estimation in living individuals, focusing on the legally important ages 17 and 18. In a retrospective multi-center study, the developmental stage of each individual's third molar was analyzed using Demirjian's scale in 2360 cases. Additionally, sex, age and ancestry were assessed. Individuals with the lowest calcification stage of all present molars in stage H were ≥18 years with a likelihood of ≥99.05% in the female (n=388), and ≥99.24% in the male (n=482) population. The lowest calcification stage of all present third molars proved to be useful as an additional reliable criterion for the determination of an age ≥18 years.

  1. Age estimation in forensic sciences: Application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Alkass, K; Buchholz, B A; Ohtani, S; Yamamoto, T; Druid, H; Spalding, S L

    2009-11-02

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster, since the age at death, birth date and year of death, as well as gender, can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this paper we analyze teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that above-ground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) which have been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel and ten of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2=0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 0.6 {+-} 04 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 {+-} 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  2. Age estimation in forensic sciences: application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis.

    PubMed

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L

    2010-05-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ((14)C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R(2) = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 +/- 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 +/- 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  3. Hierarchical Bayesian approach for estimating physical properties in spiral galaxies: Age Maps for M74

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez Gil, M. Carmen; Berihuete, Angel; Alfaro, Emilio J.; Pérez, Enrique; Sarro, Luis M.

    2015-09-01

    One of the fundamental goals of modern Astronomy is to estimate the physical parameters of galaxies from images in different spectral bands. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model for obtaining age maps from images in the Ha line (taken with Taurus Tunable Filter (TTF)), ultraviolet band (far UV or FUV, from GALEX) and infrared bands (24, 70 and 160 microns (μm), from Spitzer). As shown in [1], we present the burst ages for young stellar populations in the nearby and nearly face on galaxy M74. As it is shown in the previous work, the Hα to FUV flux ratio gives a good relative indicator of very recent star formation history (SFH). As a nascent star-forming region evolves, the Ha line emission declines earlier than the UV continuum, leading to a decrease in the HαFUV ratio. Through a specific star-forming galaxy model (Starburst 99, SB99), we can obtain the corresponding theoretical ratio Hα / FUV to compare with our observed flux ratios, and thus to estimate the ages of the observed regions. Due to the nature of the problem, it is necessary to propose a model of high complexity to take into account the mean uncertainties, and the interrelationship between parameters when the Hα / FUV flux ratio mentioned above is obtained. To address the complexity of the model, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model, where a joint probability distribution is defined to determine the parameters (age, metallicity, IMF), from the observed data, in this case the observed flux ratios Hα / FUV. The joint distribution of the parameters is described through an i.i.d. (independent and identically distributed random variables), generated through MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) techniques.

  4. Age estimation in forensic sciences: application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis.

    PubMed

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L

    2010-05-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ((14)C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R(2) = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 +/- 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 +/- 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905

  5. Radii, masses, and ages of 18 bright stars using interferometry and new estimations of exoplanetary parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligi, R.; Creevey, O.; Mourard, D.; Crida, A.; Lagrange, A.-M.; Nardetto, N.; Perraut, K.; Schultheis, M.; Tallon-Bosc, I.; ten Brummelaar, T.

    2016-02-01

    Context. Accurate stellar parameters are needed in numerous domains of astrophysics. The position of stars on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram is an important indication of their structure and evolution, and it helps improve stellar models. Furthermore, the age and mass of stars hosting planets are required elements for studying exoplanetary systems. Aims: We aim at determining accurate parameters of a set of 18 bright exoplanet host and potential host stars from interferometric measurements, photometry, and stellar models. Methods: Using the VEGA/CHARA interferometer operating in the visible domain, we measured the angular diameters of 18 stars, ten of which host exoplanets. We combined them with their distances to estimate their radii. We used photometry to derive their bolometric flux and, then, their effective temperature and luminosity to place them on the H-R diagram. We then used the PARSEC models to derive their best fit ages and masses, with error bars derived from Monte Carlo calculations. Results: Our interferometric measurements lead to an average of 1.9% uncertainty on angular diameters and 3% on stellar radii. There is good agreement between measured and indirect estimations of angular diameters (either from SED fitting or from surface brightness relations) for main sequence (MS) stars, but not as good for more evolved stars. For each star, we provide a likelihood map in the mass-age plane; typically, two distinct sets of solutions appear (an old and a young age). The errors on the ages and masses that we provide account for the metallicity uncertainties, which are often neglected by other works. From measurements of its radius and density, we also provide the mass of 55 Cnc independently of models. From the stellar masses, we provide new estimates of semi-major axes and minimum masses of exoplanets with reliable uncertainties. We also derive the radius, density, and mass of 55 Cnc e, a super-Earth that transits its stellar host. Our exoplanetary

  6. Towards an evidence-based model of aging.

    PubMed

    Katcher, Harold L

    2015-01-01

    The modern synthesis or evolutionary theory of aging assumes that aging results from the accumulation of errors or damages at the cellular level through the inadequacies of an organism's repair and maintenance machinery. The demonstration of cellular and organic rejuvenation requires the hypothesis that aging is the result of irreparable damage to be rejected. I will propose basic principles of mammalian aging based only on experimental data, without imposing the constraints of evolutionary theory. Consideration of the results of experiment suggests that fundamental assumptions about cell and organ aging being autonomous process, and about the centrality of cellular aging in organismic aging are wrong. The derived principles indicate that exogenous control of age-phenotype at cellular and higher levels of biological organization is possible. PMID:26054348

  7. Improved Noise-Power Estimators Based On Order Statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zimmerman, George A.

    1995-01-01

    Technique based on order statistics enables design of improved noise-power estimators. In original intended application, noise-power estimators part of microwave-signal-processing system of Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence project. Involves limiting dynamic range of value to be estimated; making it possible to achieve performance of order-statistical estimator with simple algorithms and equipment and with only one pass over input data. Technique also applicable to other signal-detection systems and to image-detection systems required to exhibit constant false-alarm rates.

  8. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne Rose; Nessel, James A.; Miranda, Felix

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a QV-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  9. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.; Nessel, James A.

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a Q/V-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  10. Vision-based recursive estimation of rotorcraft obstacle locations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leblanc, D. J.; Mcclamroch, N. H.

    1992-01-01

    The authors address vision-based passive ranging during nap-of-the-earth (NOE) rotorcraft flight. They consider the problem of estimating the relative location of identifiable features on nearby obstacles, assuming a sequence of noisy camera images and imperfect measurements of the camera's translation and rotation. An iterated extended Kalman filter is used to provide recursive range estimation. The correspondence problem is simplified by predicting and tracking each feature's image within the Kalman filter framework. Simulation results are presented which show convergent estimates and generally successful feature point tracking. Estimation performance degrades for features near the optical axis and for accelerating motions. Image tracking is also sensitive to angular rate.

  11. Estimation of Radiation Dose in CT Based on Projection Data.

    PubMed

    Tian, Xiaoyu; Yin, Zhye; De Man, Bruno; Samei, Ehsan

    2016-10-01

    Managing and optimizing radiation dose has become a core problem for the CT community. As a fundamental step for dose optimization, accurate and computationally efficient dose estimates are crucial. The purpose of this study was to devise a computationally efficient projection-based dose metric. The absorbed energy and object mass were individually modeled using the projection data. The absorbed energy was estimated using the difference between intensity of the primary photon and the exit photon. The mass was estimated using the volume under the attenuation profile. The feasibility of the approach was evaluated across phantoms with a broad size range, various kVp settings, and two bowtie filters, using a simulation tool, the Computer Assisted Tomography SIMulator (CATSIM) software. The accuracy of projection-based dose estimation was validated against Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. The relationship between projection-based dose metric and MC dose estimate was evaluated using regression models. The projection-based dose metric showed a strong correlation with Monte Carlo dose estimates (R (2) > 0.94). The prediction errors for the projection-based dose metric were all below 15 %. This study demonstrated the feasibility of computationally efficient dose estimation requiring only the projection data.

  12. Age- and Gender-Based Populations

    MedlinePlus

    ... societal benefits of prevention, treatment, and recovery for mental and substance use disorders. Popular Programs, Campaigns, & Initiatives National Registry of Evidence-based Programs and Practices (NREPP) Medication-Assisted Treatment (MAT) Too Smart To ...

  13. Chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han in southern China.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Dong Lin; Wu, Zhi Ling; Cui, Min Yi

    2010-03-01

    In order to study the chronology of age of third molar mineralization of Han in southern China, Demirjian staging method was used to determine the stage of four third molars (18, 28, 38, 48) mineralization in 3,100 Han in southern China aged 4.1-26.9 years based on radiological evidence from digital orthopantomograms. The mean age of the 3,100 patients was 15.96 +/- 4.73 years, including 1,200 male (mean age, 15.32 +/- 4.62) and 1,900 female (mean age, 16.35 +/- 4.76). Results show that there was no significant difference in mineralization between 18 and 28 and 38 and 48 of male or female. However, significant difference was observed between 28 and 38 of female at stage C; 28 was 0.25 years earlier than 38. In male, at stage G, 38 was 0.61 years earlier than 28, and 48 was 0.62 years earlier than 18. At stages D, E, F, G, and H, male 48 was 0.34, 0.66, 0.72, 1.34, and 0.76 years earlier than that of female, respectively. At stages A, D, E, F, G, and H, male 38 was 0.73, 0.26, 0.56, 0.91, 1.29, and 0.70 years earlier than that of female, respectively. At stages B, E, F, G, and H, the mineralization mean age of male 18 was 0.54, 0.50, 0.76, 0.92, and 0.58 years earlier than that of female, respectively. At stages E, F, G, and H, the mineralization mean age of male 28 was 0.51, 0.76, 0.92, and 0.49 years earlier than that of female, respectively. After reviewing the literature, the chronological mineralization age of 48, at stages D to G, of Han in southern China was 1 to 4.6 years earlier than that of Japanese and 1 to 3 years earlier than that of German. The mean age at stage H of 48 of Han in southern China was similar to Turkish, Black African, Japanese, and German, but was later than Spanish. Finally, the conclusions are: (1) in the same gender group of Han in southern China, the mineralization ages between two sides in upper or lower jaw are very similar, and (2) the chronology mean age and complete time of third molar mineralization of male were earlier than

  14. Estimator Based Controller for High Speed Flywheel Magnetic Bearing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dever, Timothy P.; Brown, Gerald V.; Jansen, Ralph H.

    2002-01-01

    A flywheel system and its operator interface are described. Measurements of magnetic bearing negative stiffness are performed. Two digital magnetic bearing control algorithms (PD and estimator based) are defined and their implementations are described. Tuning of each controller is discussed. Comparison of the two controllers' stability, damping noise, and operating current are described. Results describing the superiority of the estimator-based controller are presented and discussed.

  15. A Laplacian-based MMSE estimator for speech enhancement

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bin; Loizou, Philipos C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper focuses on optimal estimators of the magnitude spectrum for speech enhancement. We present an analytical solution for estimating in the MMSE sense the magnitude spectrum when the clean speech DFT coefficients are modeled by a Laplacian distribution and the noise DFT coefficients are modeled by a Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we derive the MMSE estimator under speech presence uncertainty and a Laplacian statistical model. Results indicated that the Laplacian-based MMSE estimator yielded less residual noise in the enhanced speech than the traditional Gaussian-based MMSE estimator. Overall, the present study demonstrates that the assumed distribution of the DFT coefficients can have a significant effect on the quality of the enhanced speech. PMID:18037977

  16. Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

    SciTech Connect

    Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.; Fessler, J.A.; Hero, A.O. . Div. of Nuclear Medicine)

    1994-06-01

    In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed.

  17. A knowledge-based approach to arterial stiffness estimation using the digital volume pulse.

    PubMed

    Jang, Dae-Geun; Farooq, Umar; Park, Seung-Hun; Goh, Choong-Won; Hahn, Minsoo

    2012-08-01

    We have developed a knowledge based approach for arterial stiffness estimation. The proposed new approach reliably estimates arterial stiffness based on the analysis of age and heart rate normalized reflected wave arrival time. The proposed new approach reduces cost, space, technical expertise, specialized equipment, complexity, and increases the usability compared to recently researched noninvasive arterial stiffness estimators. The proposed method consists of two main stages: pulse feature extraction and linear regression analysis. The new approach extracts the pulse features and establishes a linear prediction equation. On evaluating proposed methodology with pulse wave velocity (PWV) based arterial stiffness estimators, the proposed methodology offered the error rate of 8.36% for men and 9.52% for women, respectively. With such low error rates and increased benefits, the proposed approach could be usefully applied as low cost and effective solution for ubiquitous and home healthcare environments.

  18. Simplified Assay for Epigenetic Age Estimation in Whole Blood of Adults

    PubMed Central

    Vidal-Bralo, Laura; Lopez-Golan, Yolanda; Gonzalez, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Biological age is not always concordant with chronological age and the departures are of interest for understanding how diseases and environmental insults affect tissue function, organismal health, and life expectancy. The best-known biological age biomarker is telomere length, but there are more accurate biomarkers as the recently developed based in epigenetic, transcriptomic, or biochemical changes. The most accurate are the epigenetic biomarkers based on specific changes in DNA methylation referred as DNA methylation age measures (DmAM). Here, we have developed and validated a new DmAM that addresses some limitations of the previously available. The new DmAM includes the study in whole blood (WB) of 8 CpG sites selected as the most informative on a training set of 390 healthy subjects. The 8 CpG DmAM showed better accuracy than other DmAM based in few CpG in an independent validation set of 335 subjects. Results were not significantly influenced by sex, smoking, or variation in blood cell subpopulations. In addition, the new 8 CpG DmAM was amenable to study in a single multiplex reaction done with methylation-sensitive single-nucleotide primer extension (MS-SNuPE), a methodology based on commercially available reagents and run in capillary electrophoresis sequencers. In this way, the high cost of DNA methylation microarrays or of a pyrosequencer, which are needed for alternative DmAM, was avoided. Performance of the DmAM with MS-SNuPE was assessed in a set of 557 donors, showing high call rate (>97%), low CV (<3.3%) and high accuracy (Mean Absolute Deviation = 6.07 years). Therefore, the 8 CpG DmAM is a feasible and accurate tool for assessing the epigenetic component of biological age in blood of adults. PMID:27471517

  19. Recursive least square vehicle mass estimation based on acceleration partition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Yuan; Xiong, Lu; Yu, Zhuoping; Qu, Tong

    2014-05-01

    Vehicle mass is an important parameter in vehicle dynamics control systems. Although many algorithms have been developed for the estimation of mass, none of them have yet taken into account the different types of resistance that occur under different conditions. This paper proposes a vehicle mass estimator. The estimator incorporates road gradient information in the longitudinal accelerometer signal, and it removes the road grade from the longitudinal dynamics of the vehicle. Then, two different recursive least square method (RLSM) schemes are proposed to estimate the driving resistance and the mass independently based on the acceleration partition under different conditions. A 6 DOF dynamic model of four In-wheel Motor Vehicle is built to assist in the design of the algorithm and in the setting of the parameters. The acceleration limits are determined to not only reduce the estimated error but also ensure enough data for the resistance estimation and mass estimation in some critical situations. The modification of the algorithm is also discussed to improve the result of the mass estimation. Experiment data on a sphalt road, plastic runway, and gravel road and on sloping roads are used to validate the estimation algorithm. The adaptability of the algorithm is improved by using data collected under several critical operating conditions. The experimental results show the error of the estimation process to be within 2.6%, which indicates that the algorithm can estimate mass with great accuracy regardless of the road surface and gradient changes and that it may be valuable in engineering applications. This paper proposes a recursive least square vehicle mass estimation method based on acceleration partition.

  20. The Hercules-Lyra association revisited. New age estimation and multiplicity study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisenbeiss, T.; Ammler-von Eiff, M.; Roell, T.; Mugrauer, M.; Adam, Ch.; Neuhäuser, R.; Schmidt, T. O. B.; Bedalov, A.

    2013-08-01

    Context. The Hercules-Lyra association, a purported nearby young moving group, contains a few tens of zero age main sequence stars of spectral types F to M. The existence and the properties of the Her-Lyr association are controversial and have been discussed in the literature. Aims: The present work reassesses the properties and the member list of the Her-Lyr association based on kinematics and age indicators. Many objects form multiple systems or have low-mass companions and so we need to properly account for multiplicity. Methods: We use our own new imaging observations and archival data to identify multiple systems. The colors and magnitudes of kinematic candidates are compared to isochrones. We derive further information on the age based on Li depletion, rotation, and coronal and chromospheric activity. A set of canonical members is identified to infer mean properties. Membership criteria are derived from the mean properties and used to discard non-members. Results: The candidates selected from the literature belong to 35 stellar systems, 42.9% of which are multiple. Four multiple systems (V538 Aur, DX Leo, V382 Ser, and HH Leo) are confirmed in this work by common proper motion. An orbital solution is presented for the binary system which forms a hierarchical triple with HH Leo. Indeed, a group of candidates displays signatures of youth. Seven canonical members are identified The distribution of Li equivalent widths of canonical Her-Lyr members is spread widely and is similar to that of the Pleiades and the UMa group. Gyrochronology gives an age of 257 ± 46 Myr which is roughly in between the ages of the Pleiades and the Ursa Major group. The measures of chromospheric and coronal activity support the young age. Four membership criteria are presented based on kinematics, lithium equivalent width, chromospheric activity, and gyrochronological age. In total, eleven stars are identified as certain members including co-moving objects plus additional 23 possible

  1. Systematically optimized coenzyme q10-loaded novel proniosomal formulation for treatment of photo-induced aging in mice: characterization, biocompatibility studies, biochemical estimations and anti-aging evaluation.

    PubMed

    Yadav, N K; Nanda, Sanju; Sharma, Gajanand; Katare, O P

    2016-01-01

    Environmental stress and advancing age is considered as the main cause of skin aging. However, environmental stress (especially UV radiations) accelerates the process of skin aging by manifolds. Coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10), an essential compound of cellular bioenergetics also acts as a strong antioxidant and protects the body against aging. High molecular weight and structure specific lipophilic nature of this molecule is a bottle neck in effective delivery through topical route. Preparation of a novel proniosomal (PN) gel formulation of CoQ10 employing systematic design of experiment (DoE) approach is a step ahead in transcending the constraints of the topical delivery. I-optimal mixture design was employed for systematic optimization of proniosomal formulation and evaluation of experimental data was performed for entrapment efficiency and in vitro release. Hydration of PN gel formulation with phosphate buffer (pH 7.5) results in submicron niosomes vesicles of spherical shape, which appeared dark against bright surroundings in TEM study. Animal skin was treated with UV radiations followed by treatment of PN gel CoQ10 and conventional CoQ10 present in a gel base. The effectiveness of the treatment was evaluated on the basis of biochemical estimation and histopathological studies. By using CoQ10 PN gel formulation, levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CA), glutathione (GSH) and total proteins were restored by 81.3%, 72.1%, 74.8 and 77.1%, respectively to that of control group. Histopathological studies revealed better protection of skin treated with CoQ10 PN gel compared to free CoQ10. Prepared PN gel was found undisturbing with the normal histology hence, tolerated by animal skin compare to conventional gel. PMID:26302815

  2. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  3. Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

    PubMed

    Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

    2013-09-01

    Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y).

  4. Estimation of median growth curves for children up two years old based on biresponse local linear estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamidah, Nur; Rifada, Marisa

    2016-03-01

    There is significant of the coeficient correlation between weight and height of the children. Therefore, the simultaneous model estimation is better than partial single response approach. In this study we investigate the pattern of sex difference in growth curve of children from birth up to two years of age in Surabaya, Indonesia based on biresponse model. The data was collected in a longitudinal representative sample of the Surabaya population of healthy children that consists of two response variables i.e. weight (kg) and height (cm). While a predictor variable is age (month). Based on generalized cross validation criterion, the modeling result based on biresponse model by using local linear estimator for boy and girl growth curve gives optimal bandwidth i.e 1.41 and 1.56 and the determination coefficient (R2) i.e. 99.99% and 99.98%,.respectively. Both boy and girl curves satisfy the goodness of fit criterion i.e..the determination coefficient tends to one. Also, there is difference pattern of growth curve between boy and girl. The boy median growth curves is higher than those of girl curve.

  5. Improving artificial forest biomass estimates using afforestation age information from time series Landsat stacks.

    PubMed

    Liu, Liangyun; Peng, Dailiang; Wang, Zhihui; Hu, Yong

    2014-11-01

    China maintains the largest artificial forest area in the world. Studying the dynamic variation of forest biomass and carbon stock is important to the sustainable use of forest resources and understanding of the artificial forest carbon budget in China. In this study, we investigated the potential of Landsat time series stacks for aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in Yulin District, a key region of the Three-North Shelter region of China. Firstly, the afforestation age was successfully retrieved from the Landsat time series stacks in the last 40 years (from 1974 to 2013) and shown to be consistent with the surveyed tree ages, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) value of 4.32 years and a determination coefficient (R (2)) of 0.824. Then, the AGB regression models were successfully developed by integrating vegetation indices and tree age. The simple ratio vegetation index (SR) is the best candidate of the commonly used vegetation indices for estimating forest AGB, and the forest AGB model was significantly improved using the combination of SR and tree age, with R (2) values from 0.50 to 0.727. Finally, the forest AGB images were mapped at eight epochs from 1985 to 2013 using SR and afforestation age. The total forest AGB in seven counties of Yulin District increased by 20.8 G kg, from 5.8 G kg in 1986 to 26.6 G kg in 2013, a total increase of 360 %. For the persistent forest area since 1974, the forest AGB density increased from 15.72 t/ha in 1986 to 44.53 t/ha in 2013, with an annual rate of about 0.98 t/ha. For the artificial forest planted after 1974, the AGB density increased about 1.03 t/ha a year from 1974 to 2013. The results present a noticeable carbon increment for the planted artificial forest in Yulin District over the last four decades.

  6. Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

    PubMed

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

    2015-05-18

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

  7. Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W.; Hanna, Elizabeth G.; Dear, Keith

    2015-01-01

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions. PMID:25993102

  8. Use of free amino acid composition of shell to estimate age since death of recent molluscs

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, A.M.; Powell, E.N.; Stanton, R.J. Jr.

    1985-01-01

    An understanding of death assemblage formation requires a measurement of time since death of constituent individuals. A new dating technique based on the measurement of the free amino acid content of mollusc shells has been developed which is inexpensive, rapid, and effective in dating time scales of a few decades to a few centuries. Since the breakdown of proteins of the matrix of mollusc shells begins soon after deposition, free amino acids gradually increase with shell age. The measurement of these can be used to determine the relative age among a group of shells. The future use of this technique depends on a clearer understanding of how free amino acid accumulation rate varies with age and species and developing effective calibration methods so that absolute rather than relative ages can be readily obtained. Three species were distributed widely enough for use - Rangia cuneata, Tagelus plebeius, and Phacoides pectinatus. A good relationship between free amino acids and relative age was present in all three species over the entire core; however some species and some amino acid were superior to others. Rangia cuneata produced the best correlation because it is epifaunal and thus died at the sediment surface rather than over an extended depth range and, also perhaps, because amino acid accumulation rates were more linear.

  9. Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

  10. [Estimation of the biological age in males of the taiga tick (Ixodes persulcatus: Ixodinae) by fat reserves in the midgut].

    PubMed

    Grigor'eva, L A

    2012-01-01

    Some criteria for the estimation of the biological and calendar age by the fat storage in midgut cells of Ixodes persulcatus males were established on the basis of examination of ticks from the laboratory culture.

  11. Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning.

    PubMed

    Mason, Thomas; Sutton, Matt; Whittaker, William; Birch, Stephen

    2015-05-01

    Health care decision makers are required to make planning decisions over a medium to long term planning horizon. Whilst population ageing is an important consideration for planners, age-stratified demographic models may produce misleading estimates of future resource requirements if the actual relationship between age and health is not fixed. We present a methodology which tests whether the assumption of a fixed age-health relationship is valid and estimate the magnitude of planning errors using a long time-series of measures of chronic health and service utilisation (N = 2419) taken from the Great British General Household Survey (1980-2008). We find that age-only models contain significant omitted variable bias, and that the relationship between age and health varies significantly across birth cohorts. Chronic sickness has fallen across birth cohorts born between 1890 and 2008, particularly before birth year 1930. Generational health improvements have mitigated the effects of population ageing, meaning that the population rate of sickness fell between 1980 and 2008. Planning based only on age leads to overestimation of the population level of health care need if successive cohorts are becoming healthier. Many alternative approaches exist which allow planners to relax the assumption of a fixed relationship between age and health. PMID:25780858

  12. Fast model-based estimation of ancestry in unrelated individuals.

    PubMed

    Alexander, David H; Novembre, John; Lange, Kenneth

    2009-09-01

    Population stratification has long been recognized as a confounding factor in genetic association studies. Estimated ancestries, derived from multi-locus genotype data, can be used to perform a statistical correction for population stratification. One popular technique for estimation of ancestry is the model-based approach embodied by the widely applied program structure. Another approach, implemented in the program EIGENSTRAT, relies on Principal Component Analysis rather than model-based estimation and does not directly deliver admixture fractions. EIGENSTRAT has gained in popularity in part owing to its remarkable speed in comparison to structure. We present a new algorithm and a program, ADMIXTURE, for model-based estimation of ancestry in unrelated individuals. ADMIXTURE adopts the likelihood model embedded in structure. However, ADMIXTURE runs considerably faster, solving problems in minutes that take structure hours. In many of our experiments, we have found that ADMIXTURE is almost as fast as EIGENSTRAT. The runtime improvements of ADMIXTURE rely on a fast block relaxation scheme using sequential quadratic programming for block updates, coupled with a novel quasi-Newton acceleration of convergence. Our algorithm also runs faster and with greater accuracy than the implementation of an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm incorporated in the program FRAPPE. Our simulations show that ADMIXTURE's maximum likelihood estimates of the underlying admixture coefficients and ancestral allele frequencies are as accurate as structure's Bayesian estimates. On real-world data sets, ADMIXTURE's estimates are directly comparable to those from structure and EIGENSTRAT. Taken together, our results show that ADMIXTURE's computational speed opens up the possibility of using a much larger set of markers in model-based ancestry estimation and that its estimates are suitable for use in correcting for population stratification in association studies.

  13. Accuracy of age estimation in children using radiograph of developing teeth.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, R; Ferrante, L; Liversidge, H M; Prieto, J L; Brkic, H

    2008-04-01

    The aims of this study were: first, to determine the accuracy of the Cameriere method for assessing chronological age in children based on the relationship between age and measurement of open apices in teeth and, second, to compare the accuracy of this method with the widely used Demirjian et al. method and with the method proposed by Willems et al. Orthopantomographs taken from white Italian, Spain and Croatian children (401 girls, 355 boys) aged between 5 and 15 years were analysed following the Cameriere, Demirjian and Willems methods. The difference between chronological and dental age was calculated for each individual and each method (residual). The accuracy of each method was assessed using the mean of the absolute values of the residuals (mean prediction error). Results showed that the Cameriere method slightly underestimated the real age of children. The median of the residuals was 0.081 years (interquartile range, IQR=0.668 years) for girls and 0.036 years for boys (interquartile range, IQR=0.732 years). The Willems method showed an overestimation of the real age of boys, with a median residual error of -0.247 years and an underestimation of the real age of girls (median residual error=0.073 years). Lastly, the Demirjian method overestimated the real age of both boys and girls, with a median residual error of -0.750 years for girls and -0.611 years for boys. The Cameriere method yielded a mean prediction error of 0.407 years for girls and 0.380 years for boys. Although the accuracy of this method was better for boys than for girls, the difference between the two mean prediction errors was not statistically significant (p=0.19). The Demirjian method was found to overestimate age for both boys and girls but the mean prediction error for girls was significantly greater than that for boys (p=0.024), and was significantly less accurate than the Cameriere method (p<0.001). The Willems method was better than that of Demirjian (p=0.0032), but was significantly

  14. Age estimation in children by measurement of open apices in tooth roots: Study of a Mexican sample.

    PubMed

    De Luca, Stefano; De Giorgio, Stefania; Butti, Andrea Carlo; Biagi, Roberto; Cingolani, Mariano; Cameriere, Roberto

    2012-09-10

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to test the accuracy of Cameriere's European formula for age assessment in a large sample of Mexican children. The accuracy of dental age estimation was defined as how closely real age, measured as the difference between chronological age (CA) and dental age (DA), could be predicted. Digitalized orthopantomographs of 502 Mexican children (254 girls and 248 boys), aged between 5 and 15 years, were analyzed. The seven left permanent mandibular teeth were evaluated using Cameriere's method. Intra- and inter-observer variability for this technique was tested on a small random sample. Dental age was estimated for each individual and compared with known chronological age. Accuracy was measured as the difference between known chronological age and dental age and tested for significance with the mean prediction error (ME). The standard deviation and 95% confidence interval of the mean difference were also calculated. ME was 0.63 years for girls and 0.52 years for boys. ME was found to be slightly overestimated by 0.10 years for girls, but was correctly estimated for boys with an accuracy of 0.00. In conclusion, this method is very useful and may be recommended for practical application both in clinical dentistry and forensic procedures on the Mexican population.

  15. Mapping of Planetary Surface Age Based on Crater Statistics Obtained by AN Automatic Detection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salih, A. L.; Mühlbauer, M.; Grumpe, A.; Pasckert, J. H.; Wöhler, C.; Hiesinger, H.

    2016-06-01

    The analysis of the impact crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) is a well-established approach to the determination of the age of planetary surfaces. Classically, estimation of the CSFD is achieved by manual crater counting and size determination in spacecraft images, which, however, becomes very time-consuming for large surface areas and/or high image resolution. With increasing availability of high-resolution (nearly) global image mosaics of planetary surfaces, a variety of automated methods for the detection of craters based on image data and/or topographic data have been developed. In this contribution a template-based crater detection algorithm is used which analyses image data acquired under known illumination conditions. Its results are used to establish the CSFD for the examined area, which is then used to estimate the absolute model age of the surface. The detection threshold of the automatic crater detection algorithm is calibrated based on a region with available manually determined CSFD such that the age inferred from the manual crater counts corresponds to the age inferred from the automatic crater detection results. With this detection threshold, the automatic crater detection algorithm can be applied to a much larger surface region around the calibration area. The proposed age estimation method is demonstrated for a Kaguya Terrain Camera image mosaic of 7.4 m per pixel resolution of the floor region of the lunar crater Tsiolkovsky, which consists of dark and flat mare basalt and has an area of nearly 10,000 km2. The region used for calibration, for which manual crater counts are available, has an area of 100 km2. In order to obtain a spatially resolved age map, CSFDs and surface ages are computed for overlapping quadratic regions of about 4.4 x 4.4 km2 size offset by a step width of 74 m. Our constructed surface age map of the floor of Tsiolkovsky shows age values of typically 3.2-3.3 Ga, while for small regions lower (down to 2.9 Ga) and higher

  16. Model-based approach for elevator performance estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban, E.; Salgado, O.; Iturrospe, A.; Isasa, I.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, a dynamic model for an elevator installation is presented in the state space domain. The model comprises both the mechanical and the electrical subsystems, including the electrical machine and a closed-loop field oriented control. The proposed model is employed for monitoring the condition of the elevator installation. The adopted model-based approach for monitoring employs the Kalman filter as an observer. A Kalman observer estimates the elevator car acceleration, which determines the elevator ride quality, based solely on the machine control signature and the encoder signal. Finally, five elevator key performance indicators are calculated based on the estimated car acceleration. The proposed procedure is experimentally evaluated, by comparing the key performance indicators calculated based on the estimated car acceleration and the values obtained from actual acceleration measurements in a test bench. Finally, the proposed procedure is compared with the sliding mode observer.

  17. Vehicle lateral state estimation based on measured tyre forces.

    PubMed

    Tuononen, Ari J

    2009-01-01

    Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

  18. Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces

    PubMed Central

    Tuononen, Ari J.

    2009-01-01

    Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

  19. Improving Quantum State Estimation with Mutually Unbiased Bases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adamson, R. B. A.; Steinberg, A. M.

    2010-07-01

    When used in quantum state estimation, projections onto mutually unbiased bases have the ability to maximize information extraction per measurement and to minimize redundancy. We present the first experimental demonstration of quantum state tomography of two-qubit polarization states to take advantage of mutually unbiased bases. We demonstrate improved state estimation as compared to standard measurement strategies and discuss how this can be understood from the structure of the measurements we use. We experimentally compared our method to the standard state estimation method for three different states and observe that the infidelity was up to 1.84±0.06 times lower by using our technique than it was by using standard state estimation methods.

  20. The Utility of the Proximal Epiphysis of the Fifth Metatarsal in Age Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Davies, Catriona M; Hackman, Lucina; Black, Sue

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Radiographs of 277 living individuals were assessed via a numerical scoring system to determine the timing of appearance and degree of fusion between the proximal epiphysis of the fifth metatarsal and its diaphysis. The epiphysis was observed to first appear in females at 8 years and 10 years in males and fuse by 14 years in females and 15 years in males. When assessing the level of agreement of category assignment, inter-observer agreement was 78% for females and 64% for males whereas intra-observer agreement was 77% for females and 86.1% for males. These results suggest that the maturation of the proximal epiphysis of the fifth metatarsal may be of value in age estimation in the child and that the scoring system is sufficiently robust to merit continued investigation. Previously this epiphysis has been considered an inconstant feature, but this research confirmed its presence in all individuals studied. PMID:23425260

  1. ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment): A Research Model to Improve the Governance of Prescribing Funds in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Favato, Giampiero; Mariani, Paolo; Mills, Roger W.; Capone, Alessandro; Pelagatti, Matteo; Pieri, Vasco; Marcobelli, Alberico; Trotta, Maria G.; Zucchi, Alberto; Catapano, Alberico L.

    2007-01-01

    Background The primary objective of this study was to make the first step in the modelling of pharmaceutical demand in Italy, by deriving a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices. The experimental model was called ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment). Methods and Major Findings Individual prescription costs and demographic data referred to 3,175,691 Italian subjects and were collected directly from three Regional Health Authorities over the 12-month period between October 2004 and September 2005. The mean annual prescription cost per individual was similar for males (196.13 euro) and females (195.12 euro). After 65 years of age, the mean prescribing costs for males were significantly higher than females. On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25–34 year-old subject if male, 8 times if female. Subjects over 65 years of age (22% of total population) accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs. The weightings explained approximately 90% of the evolution of total prescribing costs, in spite of the pricing and reimbursement turbulences affecting Italy in the 2000–2005 period. The ASSET weightings were able to explain only about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals. Conclusions If mainly idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners causes the unexplained variations, the introduction of capitation-based budgets would gradually move practices with high prescribing costs towards the national average. It is also possible, though, that the unexplained individual variation in prescribing costs is the result of differences in the clinical characteristics or socio-economic conditions of practice populations. If this is the case, capitation-based budgets may lead to unfair distribution of resources. The ASSET age/sex weightings should be used as a guide, not as the ultimate determinant, for an equitable allocation of prescribing resources to

  2. Virtual Estimator for Piecewise Linear Systems Based on Observability Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Morales-Morales, Cornelio; Adam-Medina, Manuel; Cervantes, Ilse; Vela-Valdés and, Luis G.; García Beltrán, Carlos Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes a virtual sensor for piecewise linear systems based on observability analysis that is in function of a commutation law related with the system's outpu. This virtual sensor is also known as a state estimator. Besides, it presents a detector of active mode when the commutation sequences of each linear subsystem are arbitrary and unknown. For the previous, this article proposes a set of virtual estimators that discern the commutation paths of the system and allow estimating their output. In this work a methodology in order to test the observability for piecewise linear systems with discrete time is proposed. An academic example is presented to show the obtained results. PMID:23447007

  3. Estimation of Ultrafilter Performance Based on Characterization Data

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Reid A.; Geeting, John GH; Daniel, Richard C.

    2007-08-02

    Due to limited availability of test data with actual waste samples, a method was developed to estimate expected filtration performance based on physical characterization data for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. A test with simulated waste was analyzed to demonstrate that filtration of this class of waste is consistent with a concentration polarization model. Subsequently, filtration data from actual waste samples were analyzed to demonstrate that centrifuged solids concentrations provide a reasonable estimate of the limiting concentration for filtration.

  4. Estimating the age of stone structures using OSL: the potential of entrapped sediment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baran, J.; Murray, A. S.; Häggström, L.

    2003-05-01

    We report on the potential of using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to determine the construction age of various stone structures at an archaeological site at Öggestorp, near Jönköping in southern Sweden. The sediment filling the interstices between stones in a wall and a clearance cairn is assumed to have been light exposed during or before construction, and we anticipated that these fill samples were likely to be incompletely bleached, so that the smallest doses would be the most relevant. However, any reworking of the structures, or even later aeolian events, could emplace a small fraction of younger materials, and so there were also likely to be some grains with substantially smaller doses. The dose distributions from such fill samples have been studied using both small aliquots and individual grains of quartz. We present preliminary construction ages for a stone wall and cairn based on these dose distributions, and compare these with independent age constraints derived from OSL ages of associated heated stones and aeolian sand, and from the other archaeological evidence.

  5. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles.

    PubMed

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de Los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR. PMID:27403044

  6. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles

    PubMed Central

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E.; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR. PMID:27403044

  7. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles.

    PubMed

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de Los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR.

  8. Lithium battery aging model based on Dakin's degradation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baghdadi, Issam; Briat, Olivier; Delétage, Jean-Yves; Gyan, Philippe; Vinassa, Jean-Michel

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes and validates a calendar and power cycling aging model for two different lithium battery technologies. The model development is based on previous SIMCAL and SIMSTOCK project data. In these previous projects, the effect of the battery state of charge, temperature and current magnitude on aging was studied on a large panel of different battery chemistries. In this work, data are analyzed using Dakin's degradation approach. In fact, the logarithms of battery capacity fade and the increase in resistance evolves linearly over aging. The slopes identified from straight lines correspond to battery aging rates. Thus, a battery aging rate expression function of aging factors was deduced and found to be governed by Eyring's law. The proposed model simulates the capacity fade and resistance increase as functions of the influencing aging factors. Its expansion using Taylor series was consistent with semi-empirical models based on the square root of time, which are widely studied in the literature. Finally, the influence of the current magnitude and temperature on aging was simulated. Interestingly, the aging rate highly increases with decreasing and increasing temperature for the ranges of -5 °C-25 °C and 25 °C-60 °C, respectively.

  9. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-01-01

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one's thermal environment. PMID:27023538

  10. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sang