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Sample records for age estimates based

  1. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population. PMID:27555738

  2. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

    PubMed

    Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

  3. Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.

    2012-12-01

    This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;

  4. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  5. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  6. Service Lifetime Estimation of EPDM Rubber Based on Accelerated Aging Tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jie; Li, Xiangbo; Xu, Likun; He, Tao

    2017-02-01

    Service lifetime of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber at room temperature (25 °C) was estimated based on accelerated aging tests. The study followed sealing stress loss on compressed cylinder samples by compression stress relaxation methods. The results showed that the cylinder samples of EPDM can quickly reach the physical relaxation equilibrium by using the over-compression method. The non-Arrhenius behavior occurred at the lowest aging temperature. A significant linear relationship was observed between compression set values and normalized stress decay results, and the relationship was not related to the ambient temperature of aging. It was estimated that the sealing stress loss in view of practical application would occur after around 86.8 years at 25 °C. The estimations at 25 °C based on the non-Arrhenius behavior were in agreement with compression set data from storage aging tests in natural environment.

  7. Estimating age from the pubic symphysis: A new component-based system.

    PubMed

    Dudzik, Beatrix; Langley, Natalie R

    2015-12-01

    The os pubis is one of the most widely used areas of the skeleton for age estimation. Current pubic symphyseal aging methods for adults combine the morphology associated with the developmental changes that occur into the mid-30s with the degenerative changes that span the latter portion of the age spectrum. The most popular methods are phase-based; however, the definitions currently used to estimate age intervals may not be adequately defined and/or accurately understood by burgeoning researchers and seasoned practitioners alike. This study identifies patterns of growth and maturation in the pubic symphysis to derive more precise age estimates for individuals under 40 years of age. Emphasis is placed on young adults to provide more informative descriptions of epiphyseal changes associated with the final phases of skeletal maturation before degeneration commences. This study investigated macroscopic changes in forensically relevant modern U.S. samples of known age, sex, and ancestry from the Maricopa County Forensic Science Center in Phoenix, Arizona as well as donated individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic and Donated Collections at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (n=237). Age-related traits at locations with ontogenetic and biomechanical relevance were broken into components and scored. The components included the pubic tubercle, the superior apex of the face, the ventral and dorsal demifaces, and the ventral and dorsal symphyseal margins. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate the transition ages between the morphological states of each component. The categorical scores and transition analysis ages were subjected to multinomial logistic regression and decision tree analysis to derive accurate age interval estimates. Results of these analyses were used to construct a decision tree-style flow chart for practitioner use. High inter-rater agreement of the individual component traits (linear weighted kappa values ≥0.665 for all traits in the

  8. Estimation of demographic measures for India, 1881-1961, based on census age distributions.

    PubMed

    Das Gupta, P

    1971-11-01

    Abstract India is one of the very few developing countries which have a relatively long history of population censuses. The first census was taken in 1872, the second in 1881 and since then there has been a census every ten years, the latest in 1971. Yet the registration of births and deaths in India, even at the present time, is too inadequate to be of much help in estimating fertility and mortality conditions in the country. From time to time Indian census actuaries have indirectly constructed life tables by comparing one census age distribution with the preceding one. Official life tables are available for all the decades from 1872-1881 to 1951-1961, except for 1911-1921 and 1931-1941. Kingsley Davis(1) filled in the gap by constructing life tables for the latter two decades. He also estimated the birth and death rates ofIndia for the decades from 1881-1891 to 1931-1941. Estimates of these rates for the following two decades, 1941-1951 and 1951-1961, were made by Indian census actuaries. The birth rates of Davis and the Indian actuaries were obtained basically by the reverse survival method from the age distribution and the computed life table of the population. Coale and Hoover(2), however, estimated the birth and death rates and the life table of the Indian population in 1951 by applying stable population theory. The most recent estimates of the birth rate and death rate for 1963-1964 are based on the results of the National Sample Survey. All these estimates are presented in summary form in Table 1.

  9. Age estimation in forensic anthropology: quantification of observer error in phase versus component-based methods.

    PubMed

    Shirley, Natalie R; Ramirez Montes, Paula Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess observer error in phase versus component-based scoring systems used to develop age estimation methods in forensic anthropology. A method preferred by forensic anthropologists in the AAFS was selected for this evaluation (the Suchey-Brooks method for the pubic symphysis). The Suchey-Brooks descriptions were used to develop a corresponding component-based scoring system for comparison. Several commonly used reliability statistics (kappa, weighted kappa, and the intraclass correlation coefficient) were calculated to assess observer agreement between two observers and to evaluate the efficacy of each of these statistics for this study. The linear weighted kappa was determined to be the most suitable measure of observer agreement. The results show that a component-based system offers the possibility for more objective scoring than a phase system as long as the coding possibilities for each trait do not exceed three states of expression, each with as little overlap as possible.

  10. Age estimation for shovelnose sturgeon: A cautionary note based on annulus formation in pectoral fin rays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whiteman, K.W.; Travnichek, V.H.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.; Papoulias, D.; Tillett, D.

    2004-01-01

    Numerous studies have examined the age and growth of shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, but only one study attempted to validate age estimation techniques. Therefore, our objective was to use marginal increment analysis to validate annulus formation in pectoral fin rays of shovelnose sturgeon collected from the Missouri River. We also compared the precision of age estimates between two different readers. Marginal increment distance indicated that for most of the populations an opaque band was laid down in pectoral fin rays during the summer. However, opaque bands were formed throughout the year in some individuals, which could be problematic when using fin rays for age estimation. The agreement of age estimates by two readers for shovelnose sturgeon was only 18%, and differences in ages between the two readers increased for older fish. The presence of split annuli, false annuli, spawning bands, imbedded rays, and deteriorating sections made individual growth rings difficult to separate. Our findings verified that opaque bands are formed annually during the summer in the pectoral fin rays of most shovelnose sturgeon, but some individuals form opaque bands during other times. Pectoral fin rays will probably continue to be the most practical method of age estimation in shovelnose sturgeon, but ages estimated by this method should be used with caution.

  11. New approach to age estimation of male and female adult skeletons based on the morphological characteristics of the acetabulum.

    PubMed

    San-Millán, Marta; Rissech, Carme; Turbón, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    Age estimation is essential to the human identification process, both in forensic and archeological contexts. Based on the previous male-specific method of Rissech et al. (J Forensic Sci, 2006, 51:213-229), a new approach to age estimation based on the acetabulum has been described and evaluated in 611 individuals from the Lisbon Collection (Lisbon, Portugal). This paper has two main goals: (1) to revise and better define the variables of Rissech's method related to the acetabular fossa, namely, variables 5, 6, and 7, and (2) to extend the applicability of this new approach to both sexes while analyzing age-related sex differences in the acetabular aging process. The results demonstrate the suitability of combining acetabulum traits and a Bayesian approach to estimating age in adults of both sexes. This study has confirmed the usefulness of the redefined variables of the acetabular fossa when age-related changes are considered. Furthermore, the newly defined variables have good to excellent values of repeatability. The study has also extended the method's applicability to females. The revised method has absolute error averages of 7.28 years for males and 7.09 years for females, based on a sex-specific reference sample. In addition, approximately 74 % of the individuals estimated had an absolute error less than 10 years. Interestingly, the acetabular aging process follows similar trends in both sexes, but the aging rate seems to be different between males and females, especially in middle-aged individuals. Despite the fact that the age estimates, on average, did not improve significantly with the use of a sex-specific reference sample, it is recommended that the sexes be analyzed separately due to the differences in aging rates and inaccuracy values.

  12. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    PubMed

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

  13. Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

    2012-11-30

    Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

  14. Age-at-death estimation based on radiological and image analysis methods in clavicle in a current Spanish population.

    PubMed

    Benito, María; Sánchez, José Antonio; Codinha, Sónia

    2014-05-01

    Age-at-death estimation in adult individuals is one of the most challenging issues in forensic anthropology, namely, due to the large age intervals provided by the current methods, which demand the development of more reliable investigations. The clavicle has been studied as an age-at-death indicator in many researches for its accessibility, low biomechanical implication in locomotion and accuracy to predict age at death when other age indicators are not available. The present study was developed on a sample of 332 clavicles from adult individuals of known sex and age from the current Spanish population. They were x-rayed and digitalized, in a standardized way, using a Sedecal X-ray generator, model SHF 415. Three indices were calculated at the mid-diaphysis point (anterior index, posterior index, and total index) which relate the cortical thickness and the total clavicle thickness to age at death. The average grey level was also calculated in a 0.5-cm(2) area of the sternal and acromial ends (sternal grey average, acromial grey average), using Image J software. The data were subjected to a statistical analysis, using SPSS, version 15.0. The results show that average grey level has a weaker correlation with age than the variables which are based on the cortical thickness. On the other hand, the regression equations, which were calculated combining all the variables, provided smaller age-at-death intervals, demonstrating the usefulness of this method for adult age-at-death estimation in forensic anthropology.

  15. Rapid, cost-effective estimation of groundwater age based on hydrochemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beyer, M.; Morgenstern, U.; Jackson, B. M.; Daughney, C.

    2013-12-01

    aquifer. This relation can then be used in the same or similar aquifer to infer groundwater age from given hydrochemistry. Secondly specific reaction rates of underlying reactions, such as quartz dissolution, can be determined and used to determine specific and ';generic' reaction rates for field environments. We postulate this may in future lead to groundwater dating directly from specific hydrochemistry data in any given aquifer by using ';generic' kinetics. To illustrate these two approaches, regularly measured hydrochemistry data and estimates of groundwater age inferred from tritium, SF6 and CFC-12 within the Lower Hutt Groundwater Zone, a gravel aquifer in Wellington, New Zealand, are used. Correlations of hydrochemistry parameters and groundwater age are presented. Hierarchical Cluster and Factor Analysis are used to investigate major processes which caused the given hydrochemistry. Inverse modelling is used to identify specific underlying reactions, such as weathering of quartz. Reaction kinetics are investigated and results presented.

  16. Age estimation from canine volumes.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gaudio, Daniel; Guercini, Nicola; Cipriani, Filippo; Gibelli, Daniele; Caputi, Sergio; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    Techniques for estimation of biological age are constantly evolving and are finding daily application in the forensic radiology field in cases concerning the estimation of the chronological age of a corpse in order to reconstruct the biological profile, or of a living subject, for example in cases of immigration of people without identity papers from a civil registry. The deposition of teeth secondary dentine and consequent decrease of pulp chamber in size are well known as aging phenomena, and they have been applied to the forensic context by the development of age estimation procedures, such as Kvaal-Solheim and Cameriere methods. The present study takes into consideration canines pulp chamber volume related to the entire teeth volume, with the aim of proposing new regression formulae for age estimation using 91 cone beam computerized scans and a freeware open-source software, in order to permit affordable reproducibility of volumes calculation.

  17. Estimating legal age based on fusion of The proximal humeral epiphysis.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, María Benito; Codinha, Sónia; García, Alexandra Muñoz; Sánchez, José Antonio Sánchez

    2016-12-06

    The increasing demand which requires ascertaining the legal age of undocumented individuals who reach the various countries of the European Community means that new lines of research must be developed which help respond to questions posed by the Justice Administration. For this reason, this study has been designed on the basis of fusion times of the proximal humeral epiphysis. Moreover, the ultrasound scan has been used as the diagnostic method. It is a non-invasive technique, unlike the radiograph, which is used under current standards for the forensic diagnosis of age. Used as a study sample were the ultrasound images of the proximal humeral epiphysis among 221 individuals belonging to the Spanish population, of both genders, of ages ranging from 5 to 30 years. All of the images were classified into 6 stages of fusion based on the morphology of each. The results display differences among the six age groups proposed for each of the stages of fusion and are of great interest from the perspective of enforcing the Spanish Criminal Law Act on Minors, because Stage 4 would mean that the person being studied is under the age of 16 years in the case of males and 15 years in the case of females. These results, coupled with the use of ultrasound as a non-invasive diagnostic technique, make this study a very useful method when the use of radiographs is not possible.

  18. Juvenile age estimation from facial images.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Eilidh; Wilkinson, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Age determination from images can be of vital importance, particularly in cases involving suspected child sexual abuse (CSA). It is imperative to determine if an individual depicted in such an image is indeed a child, with a more concise age often sought, as this may affect the severity of offender sentencing. The aims of this study were to establish the accuracy of visual age estimation of the juvenile face in children aged between 0 and 16years and to determine if varying levels of exposure to children affected an individual's ability to assess age from the face. An online questionnaire consisting of 30 juvenile face images was created using SurveyMonkey®. The overall results suggested poor accuracy for visual age estimation of juvenile faces. The age, sex, occupation and number of children of the participants did not affect the ability to estimate age from facial images. Similarly, the sex and age of the juvenile faces did not appear to affect the accuracy of age estimation. When specific age groups are considered, sex may have an influence on age estimation, with female faces being aged more accurately in the younger age groups and male faces more accurate after the age of 11years, however this is based on a small sample. This study suggests that the accuracy of juvenile age estimation from the face alone is poor using simple visual assessment of images. Further research is required to determine exactly how age is assessed from a facial image, if there are indicators, or features in particular that lead to over- or under-estimation of juvenile age.

  19. Estimating the color of maxillary central incisors based on age and gender

    PubMed Central

    Gozalo-Diaz, David; Johnston, William M.; Wee, Alvin G.

    2008-01-01

    Statement of problem There is no scientific information regarding the selection of the color of teeth for edentulous patients. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate linear regression models that may be used to predict color parameters for central incisors of edentulous patients based on some characteristics of dentate subjects. Material and methods A spectroradiometer and an external light source were set in a noncontacting 45/0 degree (45-degree illumination and 0-degree observer) optical configuration to measure the color of subjects’ vital craniofacial structures (maxillary central incisor, attached gingiva, and facial skin). The subjects (n=120) were stratified into 5 age groups with 4 racial groups and balanced for gender. Linear first-order regression was used to determine the significant factors (α=.05) in the prediction model for each color direction of the color of the maxillary central incisor. Age, gender, and color of the other craniofacial structures were studied as potential predictors. Final predictions in each color direction were based only on the statistically significant factors, and then the color differences between observed and predicted CIELAB values for the central incisors were calculated and summarized. Results The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 36% of the total variability in L*. The statistically significant predictor of age accounted for 16% of the total variability in a*. The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 21% of the variability in b*. The mean ΔE (SD) between predicted and observed CIELAB values for the central incisor was 5.8 (3.2). Conclusions Age and gender were found to be statistically significant determinants in predicting the natural color of central incisors. Although the precision of these predictions was less than the median color difference found for all pairs of teeth studied, and may be considered an acceptable precision, further

  20. A fully nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function based on case-control clustered age-at-onset data.

    PubMed

    Gorfine, Malka; Bordo, Nadia; Hsu, Li

    2017-01-01

    SummaryConsider a popular case-control family study where individuals with a disease under study (case probands) and individuals who do not have the disease (control probands) are randomly sampled from a well-defined population. Possibly right-censored age at onset and disease status are observed for both probands and their relatives. For example, case probands are men diagnosed with prostate cancer, control probands are men free of prostate cancer, and the prostate cancer history of the fathers of the probands is also collected. Inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior lead to correlation among the outcomes within a family. In this article, a novel nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function is provided. The estimator is defined in the presence of intra-cluster dependence, and is based on consistent smoothed kernel estimators of conditional survival functions. By simulation, it is shown that the proposed estimator performs very well in terms of bias. The utility of the estimator is illustrated by the analysis of case-control family data of early onset prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first article that provides a fully nonparametric marginal survival estimator based on case-control clustered age-at-onset data.

  1. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  2. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

  3. Aging persons' estimates of vehicular motion.

    PubMed

    Schiff, W; Oldak, R; Shah, V

    1992-12-01

    Estimated arrival times of moving autos were examined in relation to viewer age, gender, motion trajectory, and velocity. Direct push-button judgments were compared with verbal estimates derived from velocity and distance, which were based on assumptions that perceivers compute arrival time from perceived distance and velocity. Experiment 1 showed that direct estimates of younger Ss were most accurate. Older women made the shortest (highly cautious) estimates of when cars would arrive. Verbal estimates were much lower than direct estimates, with little correlation between them. Experiment 2 extended target distances and velocities of targets, with the results replicating the main findings of Experiment 1. Judgment accuracy increased with target velocity, and verbal estimates were again poorer estimates of arrival time than direct ones, with different patterns of findings. Using verbal estimates to approximate judgments in traffic situations appears questionable.

  4. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  5. Age Estimation in Forensic Sciences

    PubMed Central

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L.

    2010-01-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955–1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 (14C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2 = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 ± 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 ± 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905

  6. MRI-derived body segment parameters of children differ from age-based estimates derived using photogrammetry.

    PubMed

    Bauer, Jeremy J; Pavol, Michael J; Snow, Christine M; Hayes, Wilson C

    2007-01-01

    Body segment parameters are required when researching joint kinetics using inverse dynamics models. However, the only regression equations for estimating pediatric body segment parameters across a wide age range were developed, using photogrammetry, based on 12 boys and have not been validated to date (Jensen, R.K., 1986. Body segment mass, radius and radius of gyration proportions of children. Journal of Biomechanics 19, 359-368). To assess whether these equations could validly be applied to girls, we asked whether body segment parameters estimated by the equations differ from parameters measured using a validated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) method. If so, do the differences cause significant differences in joint kinetics during normal gait? Body segment parameters were estimated from axial MRIs of the left thigh and shank of 10 healthy girls (9.6 +/- 0.9 years) and compared to those from Jensen's equations. Kinematics and kinetics were collected for 10 walking trials. Extrema in hip and knee moments and powers were compared between the two sets of body segment parameters. With the exception of the shank mass center and radius of gyration, body segment parameters measured using MRI were significantly different from those estimated using regression equations. These systematic differences in body segment parameters resulted in significant differences in sagittal-plane joint moments and powers during gait. Nevertheless, it is doubtful that even the greatest differences in kinetics are practically meaningful (0.3% BW x HT and 0.7% BW x HT/s for moments and power at the hip, respectively). Therefore, body segment parameters estimated using Jensen's regression equations are a suitable substitute for more detailed anatomical imaging of 8-10-year-old girls when quantifying joint kinetics during gait.

  7. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    PubMed

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age.

  8. Estimated daily average per capita water ingestion by child and adult age categories based on USDA's 1994-1996 and 1998 continuing survey of food intakes by individuals.

    PubMed

    Kahn, Henry D; Stralka, Kathleen

    2009-05-01

    Water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for a number of age range groups. The age ranges, based on guidance from the US EPA's Risk Assessment Forum, are narrow for younger ages when development is rapid and wider for older ages when the rate of development decreases. Estimates are based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) 1994-1996 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII). Water ingestion estimates include water ingested directly as a beverage and water added to foods and beverages during preparation at home or in local establishments. Water occurring naturally in foods or added by manufacturers to commercial products (beverage or food) is not included. Estimates are reported in milliliters (ml/person/day) and milliliters per kilogram of body weight (ml/kg/day). As a by-product of constructing estimates in terms of body weight of respondents, distributions of self-reported body weights based on the CSFII were estimated and are also reported here.

  9. [Estimation of age-related features of acoustic density and biometric relations of lens based on combined ultrasound scanning].

    PubMed

    Avetisov, K S; Markosian, A G

    2013-01-01

    Results of combined ultrasound scanning for estimation of acoustic lens density and biometric relations of lens and other eye structures are presented. A group of 124 patients (189 eyes) was studied; they were subdivided depending on age and length of anteroposterior axis of the eye. Examination algorithm was developed that allows selective estimation of acoustic density of different lens zones and biometric measurements including volumetric. Age-related increase of acoustic density of different lens zones was revealed that indirectly shows method efficiency. Biometric studies showed almost concurring volumetric lens measurements in "normal" and "short" eyes in spite of significantly thicker central zone of the latter. Significantly lower correlation between anterior chamber volume and width of its angle was revealed in "short" eyes and "normal" and "long" eyes (correlation coefficients 0.37, 0.68 and 0.63 respectively).

  10. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    PubMed Central

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  11. A test of the differential accuracy of the maxillary versus the mandibular dentition in age estimations of immature skeletal remains based on developing tooth length.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V

    2007-03-01

    Liversidge and colleagues developed a method for predicting the age of immature skeletal remains based on the length of developing teeth. This quantitative method combines dental data from both jaws, except for the permanent lateral incisor, and because there are reasons to suspect that these two types of data are not identical and should not be combined, it raises concerns regarding the accuracy of the technique when applied differently to each jaw. In this study, the differential accuracy of the method was test when applied to the maxillary and mandibular dentition. The test sample is comprised of 57 Portuguese subadult skeletons of known age at death. Results suggest an overall high consistency between estimates obtained from both jaws, but for the permanent dentition only. In the deciduous dentition the age estimates obtained from the maxillary teeth tend to be greater than the age estimates obtained from the mandibular pair, and the differences are significant for the incisors and canine. Additionally, ages obtained from the maxillary deciduous canine also differ significantly from true chronological age. In the permanent dentition there were no differences between the ages provided by both jaws but both the maxillary and mandibular second molars show a significant tendency to underestimate true chronological age. Although this study cannot validate completely the method presented by Liversidge and colleagues, it does provide an important test to its accuracy and calls for further research into its overall performance, particularly with respect to the results obtained from both jaws.

  12. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  13. [Biological age estimation by means of electroencephalography].

    PubMed

    Belozerova, L M

    2013-01-01

    The indices of computer electroencephalography have been estimated in 183 persons at the age of 20-89. Test-programs and the method of biological age determination by computer electroencephalography have been elaborated. We have found three subpopulations in each age group--people with slowing-down, mean and accelerated age changes rate. The proposed method of biological age determination includes standard generally established indices of computer electroencephalography.

  14. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    SciTech Connect

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-08-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of (4.4, 43.7) ka.

  15. Age estimates for the buckwheat family Polygonaceae based on sequence data calibrated by fossils and with a focus on the amphi-Pacific Muehlenbeckia.

    PubMed

    Schuster, Tanja M; Setaro, Sabrina D; Kron, Kathleen A

    2013-01-01

    The buckwheat family Polygonaceae is a diverse group of plants and is a good model for investigating biogeography, breeding systems, coevolution with symbionts such as ants and fungi, functional trait evolution, hybridization, invasiveness, morphological plasticity, pollen morphology and wood anatomy. The main goal of this study was to obtain age estimates for Polygonaceae by calibrating a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, using a relaxed molecular clock with fossil data. Based on the age estimates, we also develop hypotheses about the historical biogeography of the Southern Hemisphere group Muehlenbeckia. We are interested in addressing whether vicariance or dispersal could account for the diversification of Muehlenbeckia, which has a "Gondwanan" distribution. Eighty-one species of Polygonaceae were analysed with MrBayes to infer species relationships. One nuclear (nrITS) and three chloroplast markers (the trnL-trnF spacer region, matK and ndhF genes) were used. The molecular data were also analysed with Beast to estimate divergence times. Seven calibration points including fossil pollen and a leaf fossil of Muehlenbeckia were used to infer node ages. Results of the Beast analyses indicate an age of 110.9 (exponential/lognormal priors)/118.7 (uniform priors) million years (Myr) with an uncertainty interval of (90.7-125.0) Myr for the stem age of Polygonaceae. This age is older than previously thought (Maastrichtian, approximately 65.5-70.6 Myr). The estimated divergence time for Muehlenbeckia is 41.0/41.6 (39.6-47.8) Myr and its crown clade is 20.5/22.3 (14.2-33.5) Myr old. Because the breakup of Gondwana occurred from 95-30 Myr ago, diversification of Muehlenbeckia is best explained by oceanic long-distance and maybe stepping-stone dispersal rather than vicariance. This study is the first to give age estimates for clades of Polygonaceae and functions as a jumping-off point for future studies on the historical biogeography of the family.

  16. Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

  17. Age at death estimation from bone histology in Malaysian males.

    PubMed

    Nor, Faridah Mohd; Pastor, Robert F; Schutkowski, Holger

    2014-10-01

    Estimation of age from microscopic examination of human bone utilizes bone remodeling. This allows 2 regression equation to be determined in a specific population based on the variation in osteon turnover in different populations. The aim of this study was to provide age estimation for Malaysian males. Ground undecalcified cross sections were prepared from long limb bones of 50 deceased males aged between 21 and 78 years. Ten microstructural parameters were measured and subjected to multivariate regression analysis. Results showed that osteon count had the highest correlation with age (R = 0.43), and age was estimated to be within 10.94 years of the true value in 98% of males. Cross validation of the equation on 50 individuals showed close correspondence of true ages with estimated ages. Further studies are needed to validate and expand these results.

  18. Estimation of the stand ages of tropical secondary forests after shifting cultivation based on the combination of WorldView-2 and time-series Landsat images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujiki, Shogoro; Okada, Kei-ichi; Nishio, Shogo; Kitayama, Kanehiro

    2016-09-01

    We developed a new method to estimate stand ages of secondary vegetation in the Bornean montane zone, where local people conduct traditional shifting cultivation and protected areas are surrounded by patches of recovering secondary vegetation of various ages. Identifying stand ages at the landscape level is critical to improve conservation policies. We combined a high-resolution satellite image (WorldView-2) with time-series Landsat images. We extracted stand ages (the time elapsed since the most recent slash and burn) from a change-detection analysis with Landsat time-series images and superimposed the derived stand ages on the segments classified by object-based image analysis using WorldView-2. We regarded stand ages as a response variable, and object-based metrics as independent variables, to develop regression models that explain stand ages. Subsequently, we classified the vegetation of the target area into six age units and one rubber plantation unit (1-3 yr, 3-5 yr, 5-7 yr, 7-30 yr, 30-50 yr, >50 yr and 'rubber plantation') using regression models and linear discriminant analyses. Validation demonstrated an accuracy of 84.3%. Our approach is particularly effective in classifying highly dynamic pioneer vegetation younger than 7 years into 2-yr intervals, suggesting that rapid changes in vegetation canopies can be detected with high accuracy. The combination of a spectral time-series analysis and object-based metrics based on high-resolution imagery enabled the classification of dynamic vegetation under intensive shifting cultivation and yielded an informative land cover map based on stand ages.

  19. Estimation of age by epidermal image processing.

    PubMed

    Tatsumi, S; Noda, H; Sugiyama, S

    1999-12-01

    Small pieces of human precordial skin were obtained from 266 individuals during autopsy performed in Osaka Prefecture. The area from the stratum corneum to the stratum basale in a unit area of the epidermal cross-section was extracted as a segmented area of white image by image processing. The number of pixels surrounding this area was measured in individuals of various ages, and the age-associated changes were evaluated. The number of pixels around this binary image in the epidermal cross-section showed a strong correlation with age. The number tended to decrease with an increase in age in individuals aged 20 years and above, which could be closely approximated by an exponential function. A formula for estimating age was obtained as an inverse function of the number of pixels and age, and the accuracy of estimation using this formula was examined by comparing the estimated age with the actual age. Such age-associated changes in the epidermis were considered to be closely related with increased roughening of the stratum basale, flattening of dermal papillae, and a decreased percentage of the stratum granulosum per unit area of epidermis observed by light microscopy or scanning electron microscopy.

  20. Estimating survival rates with age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, M.S.; Ballachey, B.E.

    1998-01-01

    We developed a general statistical model that provides a comprehensive framework for inference about survival rates based on standing age-structure and ages-at-death data. Previously available estimators are maximum likelihood under the general model, but they use only 1 type of data and require the assumption of a stable age structure and a known population growth rate. We used the general model to derive new survival rate estimators that use both types of data and require only the assumption of a stable age structure or a known population growth rate. Our likelihood-based approach allows use of standard model-selection procedures to test hypotheses about age-structure stability, population growth rates, and age-related patterns in survival. We used this approach to estimate survival rates for female sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

  1. Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity.

  2. Age Estimates for the Buckwheat Family Polygonaceae Based on Sequence Data Calibrated by Fossils and with a Focus on the Amphi-Pacific Muehlenbeckia

    PubMed Central

    Kron, Kathleen A.

    2013-01-01

    The buckwheat family Polygonaceae is a diverse group of plants and is a good model for investigating biogeography, breeding systems, coevolution with symbionts such as ants and fungi, functional trait evolution, hybridization, invasiveness, morphological plasticity, pollen morphology and wood anatomy. The main goal of this study was to obtain age estimates for Polygonaceae by calibrating a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis, using a relaxed molecular clock with fossil data. Based on the age estimates, we also develop hypotheses about the historical biogeography of the Southern Hemisphere group Muehlenbeckia. We are interested in addressing whether vicariance or dispersal could account for the diversification of Muehlenbeckia, which has a “Gondwanan” distribution. Eighty-one species of Polygonaceae were analysed with MrBayes to infer species relationships. One nuclear (nrITS) and three chloroplast markers (the trnL-trnF spacer region, matK and ndhF genes) were used. The molecular data were also analysed with Beast to estimate divergence times. Seven calibration points including fossil pollen and a leaf fossil of Muehlenbeckia were used to infer node ages. Results of the Beast analyses indicate an age of 110.9 (exponential/lognormal priors)/118.7 (uniform priors) million years (Myr) with an uncertainty interval of (90.7–125.0) Myr for the stem age of Polygonaceae. This age is older than previously thought (Maastrichtian, approximately 65.5–70.6 Myr). The estimated divergence time for Muehlenbeckia is 41.0/41.6 (39.6–47.8) Myr and its crown clade is 20.5/22.3 (14.2–33.5) Myr old. Because the breakup of Gondwana occurred from 95–30 Myr ago, diversification of Muehlenbeckia is best explained by oceanic long-distance and maybe stepping-stone dispersal rather than vicariance. This study is the first to give age estimates for clades of Polygonaceae and functions as a jumping-off point for future studies on the historical biogeography of the family. PMID:23585884

  3. Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

    2010-01-01

    We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in

  4. Precision of two methods for estimating age from burbot otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Edwards, W.H.; Stapanian, M.A.; Stoneman, A.T.

    2011-01-01

    Lower reproductive success and older age structure are associated with many burbot (Lota lota L.) populations that are declining or of conservation concern. Therefore, reliable methods for estimating the age of burbot are critical for effective assessment and management. In Lake Erie, burbot populations have declined in recent years due to the combined effects of an aging population (&xmacr; = 10 years in 2007) and extremely low recruitment since 2002. We examined otoliths from burbot (N = 91) collected in Lake Erie in 2007 and compared the estimates of burbot age by two agers, each using two established methods (cracked-and-burned and thin-section) of estimating ages from burbot otoliths. One ager was experienced at estimating age from otoliths, the other was a novice. Agreement (precision) between the two agers was higher for the thin-section method, particularly at ages 6–11 years, based on linear regression analyses and 95% confidence intervals. As expected, precision between the two methods was higher for the more experienced ager. Both agers reported that the thin sections offered clearer views of the annuli, particularly near the margins on otoliths from burbot ages ≥8. Slides for the thin sections required some costly equipment and more than 2 days to prepare. In contrast, preparing the cracked-and-burned samples was comparatively inexpensive and quick. We suggest use of the thin-section method for estimating the age structure of older burbot populations.

  5. Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites-National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1992-2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hinkle, Stephen R.; Shapiro, Stephanie D.; Plummer, L. Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Widman, Peggy K.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Wayland, Julian E.

    2011-01-01

    This report documents selected age data interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers in groundwater from 1,399 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites across the United States. The tracers of interest were chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis primarily were from wells representing two types of NAWQA groundwater studies - Land-Use Studies (shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings) and Major-Aquifer Studies (wells, usually domestic supply wells, in principal aquifers and representing the shallow, used resource). Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) associated with Land-Use Studies also were included. Tracer samples were collected between 1992 and 2005, although two networks sampled from 2006 to 2007 were included because of network-specific needs. Tracer data from other NAWQA Program components (Flow System Studies, which are assessments of processes and trends along groundwater flow paths, and various topical studies) were not compiled herein. Tracer data from NAWQA Land-Use Studies and Major-Aquifer Studies that previously had been interpreted and published are compiled herein (as piston-flow ages), but have not been reinterpreted. Tracer data that previously had not been interpreted and published are evaluated using documented methods and compiled with aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF6), estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages, and selected ancillary data, such as redox indicators, well construction, and major dissolved gases (N2, O2, Ar, CH4, and CO2). Tracer-based piston-flow ages documented in this report are simplistic representations of the tracer data. Tracer-based piston-flow ages are a convenient means of conceptualizing groundwater age. However, the piston

  6. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  7. Estimated Autism Risk and Older Reproductive Age

    PubMed Central

    King, Marissa D.; Fountain, Christine; Dakhlallah, Diana

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We sought to estimate the risk for autism associated with maternal and paternal age across successive birth cohorts. Methods. We linked birth records and autism diagnostic records from the California Department of Developmental Services for children born in California between 1992 and 2000 to calculate the risk associated with maternal and paternal age for each birth cohort as well as for the pooled data. Results. The categorical risks associated with maternal age over 40 years ranged from a high of 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 2.47) to a low of 1.27 (95% CI = 0.95, 1.69). The risk associated with paternal age ranged from 1.29 (95% CI = 1.03, 1.6) to 1.71 (95% CI = 1.41, 2.08). Conclusions. Pooling data across multiple birth cohorts inflates the risk associated with paternal age. Analyses that do not suffer from problems produced by pooling across birth cohorts demonstrated that advanced maternal age, rather than paternal age, may pose greater risk. Future research examining parental age as a risk factor must be careful to avoid the paradoxes that can arise from pooling data, particularly during periods of social demographic change. PMID:19608957

  8. Precision of age estimates from different ageing structures in selected freshwater teleosts.

    PubMed

    Khan, Shahista; Khan, M Afzal; Miyan, Kaish; Lone, Faisal Ahmad

    2015-03-01

    The present study was undertaken with a view to compare the precision of age readings obtained from different ageing structures of some important freshwater teleosts viz., Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, Mastacembelus armatus and Ompok pabda. Standard procedures were followed to study the ageing structures. Based on the highest percent agreement and lowest average percentage of error and coefficient of variation values, precise age estimates were exhibited by opercular bones in H. molitrix and vertebrae in the remaining two fish, M. armatus and O. pabda. When precise age estimates were compared among the age estimates of other ageing structures, highest percent agreement and lowest average percent error and coefficient of variation values were exhibited by vertebrae (versus opercular bones) in H. molitrix and opercular bones (versus vertebrae) in both M. armatus and O. pabda. When mean age estimates from different ageing structures were compared, vertebrae and opercular bones exhibited comparable values in H. molitrix. In M. armatus, mean values of precise age estimates from vertebrae were significantly different from the values of other ageing structures. However, in O. pabda, vertebrae as well as opercular bones showed insignificantly different age readings.

  9. Estimating the Age of the Hawaiian Hotspot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, D. W.; Rea, D. K.

    2002-12-01

    INTRODUCTION: West of the Hawaii hotspot (HHS), an age-progressing chain of seamounts extends northwestwardly ~3600 km to the Hawaii-Emperor bend, beyond which the chain continues for ~2200 km as the north-northwestwardly trending Emperor Ridge. The ridge terminates at the ~82-Myr-old Meiji Seamount, which is perched atop the outer slope of the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench. West of Meiji, at Cape Kronotsky, the ridge orthogonally disappears into the Kamchatka subduction zone. If the length of the subducted sector of the Emperor Ridge could be estimated, then the age when volcanism began above the HHS could be estimated. MEIJI DRIFT: Deposition of the Meiji drift deposits along the northern side of the far northern or Meiji-Detroit sector of the Emperor Ridge provides a way to estimate the minimum age of the HHS. The drift deposit (as thick as 1800 m) began to accumulate about 33.5 Ma (earliest Oligocene) during the Earth's climatic transition to the ice house world. South-bound abyssal currents exiting the Bering Sea Basin, possibly generated there by thermohaline circulation, deposited the drift along the ridge sector. At this time, the sector receiving drift deposits was positioned at least 2200 km SE of its present Kamchatka trench location. Also at this time, the Aleutian Ridge (arc) cordoning the Bering Sea from the north Pacific was at least 1000 km shorter than its present length, which has been greatly lengthened during the past 50 Myr by plate boundary, transform faulting. Thus, in the early Oligocene, a wide western seaway connected abyssal circulation between the Bering Sea and north Pacific Basins. MINIMUM AGE ESTIMATING: Initiation of drift deposition requires that a former continuation of the Meiji-Detroit seamount sector, referred to here as the Obruchev continuation, crossed the north Pacific and forced abyssal currents arriving from the Bering Sea to flow eastward along the continuation's northern flank. To deflect south-bound abyssal currents, the

  10. Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

    PubMed

    Roy, S G

    1989-06-01

    "Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function."

  11. Estimation of the age and amount of brown rice plant hoppers based on bionic electronic nose use.

    PubMed

    Xu, Sai; Zhou, Zhiyan; Lu, Huazhong; Luo, Xiwen; Lan, Yubin; Zhang, Yang; Li, Yanfang

    2014-09-29

    The brown rice plant hopper (BRPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), is one of the most important insect pests affecting rice and causes serious damage to the yield and quality of rice plants in Asia. This study used bionic electronic nose technology to sample BRPH volatiles, which vary in age and amount. Principal component analysis (PCA), linear discrimination analysis (LDA), probabilistic neural network (PNN), BP neural network (BPNN) and loading analysis (Loadings) techniques were used to analyze the sampling data. The results indicate that the PCA and LDA classification ability is poor, but the LDA classification displays superior performance relative to PCA. When a PNN was used to evaluate the BRPH age and amount, the classification rates of the training set were 100% and 96.67%, respectively, and the classification rates of the test set were 90.67% and 64.67%, respectively. When BPNN was used for the evaluation of the BRPH age and amount, the classification accuracies of the training set were 100% and 48.93%, respectively, and the classification accuracies of the test set were 96.67% and 47.33%, respectively. Loadings for BRPH volatiles indicate that the main elements of BRPHs' volatiles are sulfur-containing organics, aromatics, sulfur-and chlorine-containing organics and nitrogen oxides, which provide a reference for sensors chosen when exploited in specialized BRPH identification devices. This research proves the feasibility and broad application prospects of bionic electronic noses for BRPH recognition.

  12. Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of methylmercury to estimate exposures in US women of childbearing age.

    PubMed

    Allen, Bruce C; Hack, C Eric; Clewell, Harvey J

    2007-08-01

    A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16-49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 microg/kg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 microg/kg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability

  13. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  14. Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanford, W. E.

    2015-12-01

    Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially

  15. Estimation of groundwater age in the central part of the Baltic Artesian Basin based on new isotope data from Latvia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babre, Alise; Kalvans, Andis; Popovs, Konrads; Retike, Inga; Delina, Aija

    2015-04-01

    Hydrogeological conditions of the Baltic Artesian basin (BAB) have changed rapidly during the Quaternary period. Therefore this work aims to give better overview of the complexity of the groundwater recharge and discharge dynamics beyond country borders, taking into account only shared geological framework, common climate conditions and geological development. To maintain better understanding of the processes that took part in the formation of groundwater that can be observed nowadays several methods were applied placing major emphasis on the new oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope ratio results. Earlier investigations in the northern part of the basin indicated glacial melt water intrusion in the Cambrian-Vendian. Several radiocarbon and stable isotope studies in groundwater have been done at the southern part of the basin as well reporting extensive groundwater recharge during the Late Pleistocene suggesting that recharge took place under different recharge mechanisms compared with the northern part. In 2010 to 2012 an extensive field campaign was undertaken, collecting more than 300 groundwater samples for deuterium and stable oxygen, 30 for stable carbon and 10 for radiocarbon analysis mostly from central part (Latvia) of the BAB covering all the major aquifer systems where previously collected data was sparse or absent. A specific motivation for the research was to identify relict glacial meltwater in the groundwater system. The broader aim was to estimate the baseline isotopic composition of groundwater in the region. Here a new data set is presented. Na-Ca-Cl brine found at the deepest - stagnation zone and is characterized by δ18O values above -5 o and δD values approaching -40 o in respect to VSMOW. The slow exchange zone is characterized by δ18O values around -11.7 o and δD values around -84.8 o . Mean δ18O and δD value of the groundwater in the active water exchange zone is -11.0 o and 79.2 o respectively. Characteristically the groundwater in the

  16. Age estimation for forensic purposes in Italy: ethical issues.

    PubMed

    Focardi, Martina; Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

    2014-05-01

    Age assessment in children and young adults is a relevant medicolegal issue due to the gradual increase of persons devoid of proper identification documents in European countries. Because of the illegal immigration and growing crime rates among children and adolescents, age estimation for forensic purposes is often required. The scientific research and the extensive experience of forensic experts in the last decades focused on the use of radiographic methods addressed to evaluate the degree of skeletal or dental development as the most accurate parameters to estimate the chronological age of children and adolescents. This paper analyzes the ethical issues related to age estimation procedures based on radiographic methods, showing how the ethical principles of beneficence, nonmalevolence, justice, and autonomy may be guaranteed during the execution of the age assessment in forensic practice. The procedure might be conducted in accordance with international guidelines and protocols, though they need a higher homogenization and standardization. A strong collaboration between various scientific societies of professionals (forensic odontologists, forensic pathologists, forensic anthropologist, radiologists, pediatricians, and psychologists), who have been involved in age estimation for years, is needed to reach this goal.

  17. Objective measurement of shade color in age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Vaidya, Sharad; Ahuja, Nitin; Bajaj, Puneet; Kapoor, Charu; Sabarwal, Robin; Rajpal, Karan

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is an important subspecialty of forensic medicine. Dental hard tissues are highly resistant to degradation and putrefaction. Enamel is translucent and varies in color from light yellow to grey white. The color of the teeth has been reported to be affected by chronological age. Enamel color may also depend on environmental factors viz. diet, occupational habits, vitamin deficiencies, fluoride level in drinking water etc., It has been found that color changes in dentin vary from white to yellow. Studies have been done to measure the dentin color for age estimation. Aim: To find a correlation between the enamel color and chronological age and secondly to estimate the age of an individual from enamel color. Material and Methods: A total of 300 patients visiting the outpatient department of oral medicine and radiology were selected. Out of those, 150 were men and 150 women. The patients were divided into V groups based on the age. A thorough case history was taken for all the patients. Maxillary Central and Lateral incisor was used for the estimation of shade. The enamel color was evaluated using a VITA classical shade guide. Statistical Analysis: Data were exported to an Excel spread sheet and statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS. Linear regression analysis was used to find correlations between age and enamel shade. Results: In the group 1 and 2 i.e. from 15 to 36 years, the shades A 2 and B 2 (reddish hue) was found to be most common. While in the group 3 and 4, shades ranged from A 3 to B 3 (brownish to yellowish hue). In the patients above 59 years i.e. group 5 the enamel shade with greyish hue was found to be most common. Conclusion: Age determination using enamel color can be tried in forensic cases in the identification of individuals with no birth records. PMID:26816455

  18. H3N2v and other influenza epidemic risk based on age-specific estimates of sero-protection and contact network interactions.

    PubMed

    Skowronski, Danuta M; Moser, Flavia S; Janjua, Naveed Z; Davoudi, Bahman; English, Krista M; Purych, Dale; Petric, Martin; Pourbohloul, Babak

    2013-01-01

    Cases of a novel swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) have recently been identified in the US, primarily among children. We estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on age-specific estimates of sero-susceptibility and social interactions. A contact network model previously established for the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Canada was used to estimate average epidemic (infection) ARs for the emerging H3N2v and comparator viruses (H1N1pdm09 and an extinguished H3N2 seasonal strain) based on typical influenza characteristics, basic reproduction number (R(0)), and effective contacts taking into account age-specific sero-protection rates (SPRs). SPRs were assessed in sera collected from the GVA in 2009 or earlier (pre-H1N1pdm09) and fall 2010 (post-H1N1pdm09, seasonal A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2), and H3N2v) by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. SPR was assigned per convention based on proportion with HI antibody titre ≥40 (SPR40). Recognizing that the HI titre ≥40 was established as the 50%sero-protective threshold we also explored for ½SPR40, SPR80 and a blended gradient defined as: ¼SPR20, ½SPR40, ¾SPR80, SPR160. Base case analysis assumed R(0) = 1.40, but we also explored R(0) as high as 1.80. With R(0) = 1.40 and SPR40, simulated ARs were well aligned with field observations for H1N1pdm09 incidence (AR: 32%), sporadic detections without a third epidemic wave post-H1N1pdm09 (negligible AR<0.1%) as well as A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2) seasonal strain extinction and antigenic drift replacement (negligible AR<0.1%). Simulated AR for the novel swine-origin H3N2v was 6%, highest in children 6-11years (16%). However, with modification to SPR thresholds per above, H3N2v AR ≥20% became possible. At SPR40, H3N2v AR ≥10%, ≥15% or ≥30%, occur if R(0)≥1.48, ≥1.56 or ≥1.86, respectively. Based on conventional assumptions, the novel swine-origin H3N2v does not currently pose a substantial pandemic threat. If H3N2v epidemics do

  19. Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

    2015-11-01

    In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation.

  20. Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.

    1999-01-01

    The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

  1. Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  2. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2013-09-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  3. Differences in geriatric anthropometric data between DXA-based subject-specific estimates and non-age-specific traditional regression models.

    PubMed

    Chambers, April J; Sukits, Alison L; McCrory, Jean L; Cham, Rakie

    2011-08-01

    Age, obesity, and gender can have a significant impact on the anthropometrics of adults aged 65 and older. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in body segment parameters derived using two methods: (1) a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) subject-specific method (Chambers et al., 2010) and (2) traditional regression models (de Leva, 1996). The impact of aging, gender, and obesity on the potential differences between these methods was examined. Eighty-three healthy older adults were recruited for participation. Participants underwent a whole-body DXA scan (Hologic QDR 1000/W). Mass, length, center of mass, and radius of gyration were determined for each segment. In addition, traditional regressions were used to estimate these parameters (de Leva, 1996). A mixed linear regression model was performed (α = 0.05). Method type was significant in every variable of interest except forearm segment mass. The obesity and gender differences that we observed translate into differences associated with using traditional regressions to predict anthropometric variables in an aging population. Our data point to a need to consider age, obesity, and gender when utilizing anthropometric data sets and to develop regression models that accurately predict body segment parameters in the geriatric population, considering gender and obesity.

  4. Evolution on a volcanic conveyor belt: using phylogeographic reconstructions and K-Ar-based ages of the Hawaiian Islands to estimate molecular evolutionary rates.

    PubMed

    Fleischer, R C; McIntosh, C E; Tarr, C L

    1998-04-01

    The Hawaiian Islands form as the Pacific Plate moves over a 'hot spot' in the earth's mantle where magma extrudes through the crust to build huge shield volcanos. The islands subside and erode as the plate carries them to the north-west, eventually to become coral atolls and seamounts. Thus islands are ordered linearly by age, with the oldest islands in the north-west (e.g. Kauai at 5.1 Ma) and the youngest in the south-east (e.g. Hawaii at 0.43 Ma). K-Ar estimates of the date of an island's formation provide a maximum age for the taxa inhabiting the island. These ages can be used to calibrate rates of molecular change under the following assumptions: (i) K-Ar dates are accurate; (ii) tree topologies show that derivation of taxa parallels the timing of island formation; (iii) populations do not colonize long after island emergence; (iv) the coalescent point for sister taxa does not greatly predate the formation of the colonized younger island; (v) saturation effects and (vi) among-lineage rate variation are minimal or correctable; and (vii) unbiased standard errors of distances and regressions can be estimated from multiple pairwise comparisons. We use the approach to obtain overall corrected rate calibrations for: (i) part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in Hawaiian drepanidines (0.016 sequence divergence/Myr); (ii) the Yp1 gene in Hawaiian Drosophila (0.019/Myr Kambysellis et al. 1995); and (iii) parts of the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA and tRNAval in Laupala crickets (0.024-0.102/Myr, Shaw 1996). We discuss the reliability of the estimates given the assumptions (i-vii) above and contrast the results with previous calibrations of Adh in Hawaiian Drosophila and chloroplast DNA in lobeliods.

  5. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    PubMed

    Li, Guoqi; Zhao, Daxuan; Xu, Yi; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  6. Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites: National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2006-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shapiro, Stephanie D.; Plummer, L. Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Widman, Peggy K.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Wayland, Julian E.; Runkle, Donna L.

    2012-01-01

    Piston-flow age dates were interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers from 812 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites from 27 Study Units across the United States. The tracers of interest include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis were collected from 2006 to 2010 from groundwater wells in NAWQA studies, including: * Land-Use Studies (LUS, shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, located in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings), * Major-Aquifer Studies (MAS, wells, usually domestic supply wells, located in principal aquifers and representing the shallow drinking water supply), * Flow System Studies (FSS, networks of clustered wells located along a flowpath extending from a recharge zone to a discharge zone, preferably a shallow stream) associated with Land-Use Studies, and * Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) also associated with Land-Use Studies. Tracer data were evaluated using documented methods and are presented as aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF6), and tracer-based piston-flow ages. Selected ancillary data, such as redox data, well-construction data, and major dissolved-gas (N2, O2, Ar, CH4, and CO2) data, also are presented. Recharge temperature was inferred using climate data (approximated by mean annual air temperature plus 1°C [MAAT +1°C]) as well as major dissolved-gas data (N2-Ar-based) where available. The N2-Ar-based temperatures showed significantly more variation than the climate-based data, as well as the effects of denitrification and degassing resulting from reducing conditions. The N2-Ar-based temperatures were colder than the climate-based temperatures in networks where recharge was limited to the winter months when evapotranspiration was reduced. The tracer-based piston-flow ages

  7. Age estimations of wild pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus, Forbes & Richardson 1905) based on pectoral fin spines, otoliths and bomb radiocarbon: inferences on recruitment in the dam-fragmented Missouri River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Braaten, P. J.; Campana, S. E.; Fuller, D. B.; Lott, R. D.; Bruch, R. M.; Jordan, G. R.

    2015-01-01

    An extant stock of wild pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus persists in the fragmented upper Missouri River basin of Montana and North Dakota. Although successful spawning and hatch of embryos has been verified, long-term catch records suggest that recruitment has not occurred for several decades as the extant stock lacks juvenile size classes and is comprised exclusively of large, presumably old individuals. Ages of 11 deceased (death years 1997–2007) wild S. albus (136–166 cm fork length) were estimated based on pectoral fin spines, sagittal otoliths and bomb radiocarbon (14C) assays of otoliths to test the hypothesis that members of this stock are old and to provide inferences on recruitment years that produced the extant stock. Age estimations based on counts of presumed annuli were about 2 years greater for otoliths (mean = 51 years, range = 43–57 years) than spines (mean = 49 years, range = 37–59 years). Based on 14C assays, confirmed birth years for all individuals occurred prior to 1957, thus establishing known longevity of at least 50 years. Estimated age based on presumed otolith annuli for one S. albus was validated to at least age 49. Although 14C assays confirmed pre-1957 birth years for all S. albus, only 56% of estimated ages from spines and 91% of estimated ages from otoliths depicted pre-1957 birth years. Both ageing structures were subject to under-ageing error (up to 15 years). Lack of or severe curtailment of S. albus recruitment in the upper Missouri River basin since the mid-1950s closely parallels the 1953–1957 timeframe when a mainstem reservoir was constructed and started to fill. This reservoir may function as a system-wide stressor to diminish recruitment success of S. albus in the upper Missouri River basin.

  8. Estimating the weight of ethnically diverse children attending an Australian emergency department: a prospective, blinded, comparison of age-based and length-based tools including Mercy, PAWPER and Broselow

    PubMed Central

    John-Denny, Blessy; McGarvey, Kathryn; Hann, Alexandra; Pegiazoglou, Ioannis; Peat, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Objective To prospectively compare the actual weights of Australian children in an ethnically diverse metropolitan setting with the predicted weights using the Paediatric Advanced Weight Prediction in the Emergency Room (PAWPER) tape, Broselow tape, Mercy system and calculated weights using the updated Advanced Paediatric Life Support (APLS), Luscombe and Owens and Best Guess formulae. Methods A prospective, cross-sectional, observational, blinded, convenience study conducted at the Children's Hospital at Westmead Paediatric Emergency Department in Sydney, Australia. Comparisons were made using Bland-Altman plots, mean difference, limits of agreement and estimated weight within 10% and 20% of actual weight. Results 199 patients were enrolled in the study with a mean actual weight of 27.2 kg (SD 17.2). Length-based tools, with or without body habitus adjustment, performed better than age-based formulae. When measuring estimated weight within 10% of actual weight, PAWPER performed best with 73%, followed by Mercy (69%), PAWPER with no adjustment (62%), Broselow (60%), Best Guess (47%), Luscombe and Owens (41%) and revised APLS (40%). Mean difference was similar across all methods ranging from 0.4 kg (0.0, 0.9) for Mercy to −2.2 kg (−3.5, −0.9) for revised APLS. Limits of agreement were narrower for the length-based tools (−5.9, 6.8 Mercy; −8.3, 5.6 Broselow; −9.0, 7.1 PAWPER adjusted; −12.1, 9.2 PAWPER unadjusted) than the age-based formulae (−18.6, 17.4 Best Guess; −19.4, 15.1 revised APLS, −21.8, 17.7 Luscombe and Owens). Conclusion In an ethnically diverse population, length-based methods with or without body habitus modification are superior to age-based methods for predicting actual body weight. Body habitus modifications increase the accuracy and precision slightly. PMID:27799153

  9. Estimating age: college males versus convicted male child sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Robert; Romero, Sergio; Patrick, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Two samples, male college students and convicted male child sex offenders, are compared on their abilities to accurately estimate the age group of a series of photographs of a sole female ranging in age from 11 to 29. Both samples tend to overestimate the age group of the subject photos, and no significant difference was found between college students and convicted child sex offenders in their ability to estimate the age of females. Both groups are compared demographically, and only limited differences were found. The implications are discussed in regard to theory and prevention of child sexual abuse.

  10. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    PubMed

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  11. Pre- and postpandemic estimates of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) seroprotection to inform surveillance-based incidence, by age, during the 2013-2014 epidemic in Canada.

    PubMed

    Skowronski, Danuta M; Chambers, Catharine; Sabaiduc, Suzana; Janjua, Naveed Z; Li, Guiyun; Petric, Martin; Krajden, Mel; Purych, Dale; Li, Yan; De Serres, Gaston

    2015-01-01

    To understand the epidemic resurgence of influenza due to the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) strain (A[H1N1]pdm09) during the 2013-2014 influenza season, we compared age-related cross-sectional estimates of seroprotection before the pandemic (during 2009) and after the pandemic (during 2010 and 2013) to subsequent surveillance-based, laboratory-confirmed incidence of influenza due to A(H1N1)pdm09 in British Columbia, Canada. Prepandemic seroprotection was negligible except for very old adults (defined as adults aged ≥ 80 years), among whom 80% had seroprotection. Conversely, postpandemic seroprotection followed a U-shaped distribution, with detection in approximately 35%-45% of working-aged adults but in ≥ 70% of very old adults and young children, excluding children aged <5 years in 2013, among whom seroprotection again decreased to <20%. The incidence was 5-fold higher during 2013-2014, compared with 2010-2011, and was highest among children aged <5 years and working-aged adults, reflecting a mirror image of the age-based seroprotection data.

  12. The effects of racemization rate for age estimation of pink teeth.

    PubMed

    Sakuma, Ayaka; Saitoh, Hisako; Ishii, Namiko; Iwase, Hirotaro

    2015-03-01

    Pink teeth is thought to result from the seepage of hemoglobin caused by dental pulp decomposition. We investigated whether racemization can be applied for age estimation in cases of pink teeth where the whole tooth is used. The pink teeth used were three cases and the normal teeth for control were five mandibular canines of known age. Age of the pink teeth was calculated on the basis of regression formula obtained from the five control teeth. Only a slight error was noted between the actual and estimated ages of the pink teeth (R(2) = 0.980, r = 0.990): Cases 1-3 actually aged 23, 53, and 59 years were estimated to be 26, 52, and 60 years. Based on our results of testing pink teeth of known age, we suggest that racemization techniques allow for the age estimation of pink teeth using the same methods for normally colored teeth.

  13. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    SciTech Connect

    Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl; Barstow, Del R; Boehnen, Chris Bensing

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

  14. Heterogeneous Rates of Molecular Evolution and Diversification Could Explain the Triassic Age Estimate for Angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Crane, Peter; Donoghue, Michael J

    2015-09-01

    Dating analyses based on molecular data imply that crown angiosperms existed in the Triassic, long before their undisputed appearance in the fossil record in the Early Cretaceous. Following a re-analysis of the age of angiosperms using updated sequences and fossil calibrations, we use a series of simulations to explore the possibility that the older age estimates are a consequence of (i) major shifts in the rate of sequence evolution near the base of the angiosperms and/or (ii) the representative taxon sampling strategy employed in such studies. We show that both of these factors do tend to yield substantially older age estimates. These analyses do not prove that younger age estimates based on the fossil record are correct, but they do suggest caution in accepting the older age estimates obtained using current relaxed-clock methods. Although we have focused here on the angiosperms, we suspect that these results will shed light on dating discrepancies in other major clades.

  15. New age estimations for the western outer city wall of ancient Tayma (NW Saudi Arabia) based on OSL and radiocarbon data and geomorphologic evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, M.; Klasen, N.; Brückner, H.; Eichmann, R.; Hausleiter, A.; Al-Najem, M. H.; Al-Said, S. F.; Schneider, P. I.

    2009-04-01

    Since 2004 tremendous progress has been achieved in deciphering the cultural genesis of the Tayma oasis (NW Saudi Arabia), due to the joint investigations of the German Archaeological Institute Berlin (DAI), the General Commission for Tourism and Antiquities, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Department of Archaeology and Epigraphy, King Saud University Riyadh. Nevertheless, archaeological research is still suffering from a lacking locally-based absolute chronology of buildings. The pattern of ancient constructions at Tayma is dominated by a prominent city wall system surrounding the ancient town center (Qraya) and stretching 15 km around the oasis. Its internal structure indicates several building periods, i.e. phases of wall modification or extension of the entire system. So far, according to silex and carnelian fragments included in the mud bricks and a previous 14C age of charcoal remains from the central excavation district (wall section at Area A), an initial construction date of the wall between the late 3rd and the early 2nd millennium BC seemed likely. At the excavated western outer city wall a new systematic dating approach - combining the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and 14C methods - has been applied to generate a reliable age for the oldest branch of the wall system which nowadays is covered by aeolian sand. The dune deposit is genetically related to the existence of the wall and, therefore, dating its accumulation provides termini ante quem for the construction of the wall. Five OSL dates were generated from the dune deposit providing ages between 4,900 and 3,500 yrs. Two radiocarbon ages support the dating sequence and also contribute to its consistency. By combining the results with geomorphologic evidence we draw the following conclusions: Initial settlement activities at Qraya were accompanied by a regulation of wadi dynamics and the construction of the outer city wall, indicated by the abrupt boundary between the pre-settlement alluvial

  16. Estimates of a hedonic ageing equation for partner search.

    PubMed

    Cameron, S; Collins, A

    1997-01-01

    "This paper presents the first attempts by economists to estimate an equation of the demand curve for sexual relationship partner attributes. The focus is on the age of partner sought as the item demanded. A sample of newspaper ¿personal ads' is used to construct the demand curve. The estimates show clear evidence of age trade offs in partner search which vary by gender. There is evidence that financially constrained men will trade down in terms of market desirability, i.e., up in partner age, but also that women will offer to buy younger partners with financial signalling." (EXCERPT)

  17. Estimation of Stratospheric Age Spectrum from Chemical Tracers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Polansky, Brian

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a technique to diagnose the stratospheric age spectrum and estimate the mean age of air using the distributions of at least four constituents with different photochemical lifetimes. We demonstrate that the technique works using a 3D CTM and then apply the technique to UMS CLAES January 1993 observations of CFC11, CFC12, CH4 and N2O. Our results are generally in agreement with mean age of air estimates from the chemical model and from observations of SF6 and CO2; however, the mean age estimates show an intrusion of very young tropical air into the mid-latitude stratosphere. This feature is consistent with mixing of high N20 air out of the tropics during the westerly phase of the QBO.

  18. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-05-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln y versus t when y is an exponential function of t. This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was wrong not because he did not account for radioactivity, as is commonly believed,4 but because he used the wrong model for Earth's heat loss. We feel this idea is worth spreading. To this end (following England et al.), we examine two questions, the first about the radioactivity part and the second about Perry's alternate model for Earth's heat loss.

  19. Thermoluminescence and new 14C age estimates for late quaternary loesses in southwestern Nebraska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Maat, P.B.; Johnson, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    Loess of late Quaternary age mantles most of Nebraska south of the Platte River Valley. At least five late Quaternary loesses are recognized: from oldest to youngest, one or more undifferentiated pre-lllinoian loesses, the Loveland Loess, the Gilman Canyon Loess, which exhibits a well developed soil and rests unconformably on the Sangamon soil, the Peoria Loess capped by the Brady soil, and the Bignell Loess, which is distributed discontinuously. Previous research shows that the Loveland Loess is Illinoian. the Gilman Canyon Loess and Peoria Loess are Wisconsin, and the Bignell Loess is Holocene. We present here the first thermoluminescence (TL) age estimates and new C ages for these late Quaternary loesses at two key sections in southwestern Nebraska, the Eustis ash pit and the Bignell Hill road cut. TL age estimates from all samples collected from Eustis ash pit and Bignell Hill were internally consistent. TL and C age estimates from these two sections generally agree and support previous age determinations. The TL age estimate on Loveland Loess indicates deposition at 163 ka. TL and radiocarbon age estimates indicate that Oilman Canyon Loess, believed to be deposited during the Farmdale interstade, first began to accumulate at about 40 ka: the lower part of the Gilman Canyon Loess is 36 ka at Eustis and the middle of the unit is 30 ka at Bignell Hill. The lower and upper parts of the Peoria Loess give age estimates of 24 ka and 17 ka, respectively. TL age estimates for deposition of the Bignell Loess are 9 ka near the base, in agreement with radiocarbon age estimates, and 6 ka immediately below the modern soil, substantiating its Holocene age. Comparisons of TL age estimates with ??18O and insolation curves which show loess deposition during interglacial and interstadial as well as glacial periods, indicate that loess deposition on the Great Plains can occur under a variety of climatic conditions.

  20. Estimation of Age Using Alveolar Bone Loss: Forensic and Anthropological Applications.

    PubMed

    Ruquet, Michel; Saliba-Serre, Bérengère; Tardivo, Delphine; Foti, Bruno

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to utilize a new odontological methodological approach based on radiographic for age estimation. The study was comprised of 397 participants aged between 9 and 87 years. A clinical examination and a radiographic assessment of alveolar bone loss were performed. Direct measures of alveolar bone level were recorded using CT scans. A medical examination report was attached to the investigation file. Because of the link between alveolar bone loss and age, a model was proposed to enable simple, reliable, and quick age estimation. This work added new arguments for age estimation. This study aimed to develop a simple, standardized, and reproducible technique for age estimation of adults of actual populations in forensic medicine and ancient populations in funeral anthropology.

  1. Accuracy of age estimation methods from orthopantomograph in forensic odontology: a comparative study.

    PubMed

    Khorate, Manisha M; Dinkar, A D; Ahmed, Junaid

    2014-01-01

    Changes related to chronological age are seen in both hard and soft tissue. A number of methods for age estimation have been proposed which can be classified in four categories, namely, clinical, radiological, histological and chemical analysis. In forensic odontology, age estimation based on tooth development is universally accepted method. The panoramic radiographs of 500 healthy Goan, Indian children (250 boys and 250 girls) aged between 4 and 22.1 years were selected. Modified Demirjian's method (1973/2004), Acharya AB formula (2011), Dr Ajit D. Dinkar (1984) regression equation, Foti and coworkers (2003) formula (clinical and radiological) were applied for estimation of age. The result of our study has shown that Dr Ajit D. Dinkar method is more accurate followed by Acharya Indian-specific formula. Furthermore, in this study by applying all these methods to one regional population, we have attempted to present dental age estimation methodology best suited for the Goan Indian population.

  2. Forensic age estimation of living individuals: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Valeria; De Donno, Antonio; Marrone, Maricla; Campobasso, Carlo Pietro; Introna, Francesco

    2009-12-15

    In recent years, skeletal age determination has become increasingly important in criminal investigations for determining the age of living individuals. To increase diagnostic accuracy, a physical examination, an X-ray examination of the left hand, as well as a dental examination including the determination of the dental status and an X-ray of the dentition should always be performed. In this work, the authors analyze a sample of 52 illegal immigrants who came under their observation in the period from May 1989 to September 2007. A statistical analysis of the results of dental and skeletal age estimations was performed as well as an analysis between the reported and assessed ages. The results showed a significant difference between reported age and assessed biological age (p<0.001); however, no statistical difference was shown between skeletal and assessed dental age (p=0.431).

  3. Estimation and evidence in forensic anthropology: age-at-death.

    PubMed

    Konigsberg, Lyle W; Herrmann, Nicholas P; Wescott, Daniel J; Kimmerle, Erin H

    2008-05-01

    A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage."Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.

  4. Dental cementum in age estimation: a polarized light and stereomicroscopic study.

    PubMed

    Kasetty, Sowmya; Rammanohar, M; Raju Ragavendra, T

    2010-05-01

    Dental hard tissues are good candidates for age estimation as they are less destructive and procedures to determine age can be easily performed. Although cementum annulations and cementum thickness are important parameters in this regard, they are seldom used. This study was undertaken to review the methods, difficulties in execution of techniques, and accuracy of cementum thickness and annulations in estimating the age. Unstained and stained ground sections of tooth were used to measure cemental thickness and count cemental annulations based on which age was estimated and was compared with known age. Although there was positive relation between cemental thickness and annulations with age, only in 1-1.5% of cases, age could be predicted with accuracy.

  5. Serum 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin Levels and Their Association With Age, Body Mass Index, Smoking, Military Record-based Variables, and Estimated Exposure to Agent Orange in Korean Vietnam Veterans

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Sang-Wook; Ohrr, Heechoul; Won, Jong-Uk; Song, Jae-Seok

    2013-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the levels of serum 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and evaluate their association with age, body mass index, smoking, military record-based variables, and estimated exposure to Agent Orange in Korean Vietnam veterans. Methods Serum levels of TCDD were analyzed in 102 Vietnam veterans. Information on age, body mass index, and smoking status were obtained from a self-reported questionnaire. The perceived exposure was assessed by a 6-item questionnaire. Two proximity-based exposures were constructed by division/brigade level and battalion/company level unit information using the Stellman exposure opportunity index model. Results The mean and median of serum TCDD levels was 1.2 parts per trillion (ppt) and 0.9 ppt, respectively. Only 2 Vietnam veterans had elevated levels of TCDD (>10 ppt). The levels of TCDD did not tend to increase with the likelihood of exposure to Agent Orange, as estimated from either proximity-based exposure or perceived self-reported exposure. The serum TCDD levels were not significantly different according to military unit, year of first deployment, duration of deployment, military rank, age, body mass index, and smoking status. Conclusions The average serum TCDD levels in the Korean Vietnam veterans were lower than those reported for other occupationally or environmentally exposed groups and US Vietnam veterans, and their use as an objective marker of Agent Orange exposure may have some limitations. The unit of deployment, duration of deployment, year of first deployment, military rank, perceived self-reported exposure, and proximity-based exposure to Agent Orange were not associated with TCDD levels in Korean Vietnam veterans. Age, body mass index and smoking also were not associated with TCDD levels. PMID:24137525

  6. Age estimation of unidentified corpses by measurement of root translucency.

    PubMed

    Olze, A; Geserick, G; Schmeling, A

    2004-12-01

    To evaluate the root dentine translucency technique for age analysis, age estimates carried out at the Institute of Legal Medicine at the Charité University Hospital in Berlin between 1998 and 2002 of unidentified corpses were subjected to retrospective review. Teeth suitable for evaluation were obtained from 33 corpses of undisputed identity. Root translucency was measured at intervals of half a millimetre. Appropriate reference studies were used to translate the measurements obtained into estimated age. In 18 cases these estimates proved correct. In 14 cases the deviation lay within +/-10 years. In one case of known drug abuse combined with diabetic metabolism, two factors which promote the advance of root translucency, the deviation was 12 years. It was concluded that the described technique, which requires little time and money and is easy to apply, can produce sound results in the middle age group (30-60). To avoid seriously inaccurate estimates in individual cases, the result should always be verified critically against an assessment of the overall stomatognathic system and other post-mortem findings of relevance to age.

  7. Age estimation charts for a modern Australian population.

    PubMed

    Blenkin, Matthew; Taylor, Jane

    2012-09-10

    Calculation of the biological age of an individual has application in many fields of dentistry. It can be used to determine the appropriate timing of interventionist treatment for example in orthodontics; to analyse the developmental stage of an individual relative to the general population in the management of genetic or congenital conditions which disturb growth; and to estimate the age of a living or deceased person for forensic purposes. Many of the techniques used to estimate age can be quite time consuming to complete. This time component is a major disadvantage in a forensic context when age estimations in mass disasters are required as part of the post-mortem examination process. Consequently, forensic practitioners have tended to use the simpler but less reliable atlas style techniques of Schour and Massler and Ubelaker in these situations. For mass disaster situations, such as the recent Victorian Bushfires, it would be advantageous to have access to Australian specific data in the convenient Schour and Massler format. This project reinterpreted the Australian data previously collected by Blenkin and other relevant studies and applied it to a schematic similar to that of Ubelaker to develop a reliable, convenient and contemporary reference for use in age estimation.

  8. A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.

    2015-08-01

    Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.

  9. Age estimation from dental cementum incremental lines and periodontal disease.

    PubMed

    Dias, P E M; Beaini, T L; Melani, R F H

    2010-12-01

    Age estimation by counting incremental lines in cementum added to the average age of tooth eruption is considered an accurate method by some authors, while others reject it stating weak correlation between estimated and actual age. The aim of this study was to evaluate this technique and check the influence of periodontal disease on age estimates by analyzing both the number of cementum lines and the correlation between cementum thickness and actual age on freshly extracted teeth. Thirty one undecalcified ground cross sections of approximately 30 µm, from 25 teeth were prepared, observed, photographed and measured. Images were enhanced by software and counts were made by one observer, and the results compared with two control-observers. There was moderate correlation ((r)=0.58) for the entire sample, with mean error of 9.7 years. For teeth with periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.03 with a mean error of 22.6 years. For teeth without periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.74 with mean error of 1.6 years. There was correlation of 0.69 between cementum thickness and known age for the entire sample, 0.25 for teeth with periodontal problems and 0.75 for teeth without periodontal pathologies. The technique was reliable for periodontally sound teeth, but not for periodontally diseased teeth.

  10. Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

  11. Data-Dependent Label Distribution Learning for Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    He, Zhouzhou; Li, Xi; Zhang, Zhongfei; Wu, Fei; Geng, Xin; Zhang, Yaqing; Yang, Ming-Hsuan; Zhuang, Yueting

    2017-01-18

    As an important and challenging problem in computer vision, face age estimation is typically cast as a classification or regression problem over a set of face samples with respect to several ordinal age labels, which have intrinsically cross-age correlations across adjacent age dimensions. As a result, such correlations usually lead to the age label ambiguities of the face samples. Namely, each face sample is associated with a latent label distribution that encodes the cross-age correlation information on label ambiguities. Motivated by this observation, we propose a totally data-driven label distribution learning approach to adaptively learn the latent label distributions. The proposed approach is capable of effectively discovering the intrinsic age distribution patterns for cross-age correlation analysis on the basis of the local context structures of face samples. Without any prior assumptions on the forms of label distribution learning, our approach is able to flexibly model the sample-specific context aware label distribution properties by solving a multi-task problem, which jointly optimizes the tasks of age-label distribution learning and age prediction for individuals. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  12. Age estimation using level of eyebrow and eyelash whitening

    PubMed Central

    Kantarcı, Feride Aylin; Kantarcı, Muhammed Nabi; Bilgi, Sefer

    2014-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to determine whether eyebrow and eyelash whitening is an effective parameter in age estimation. Material/Methods We evaluated 1545 patients. Age groups were 1–10, 11–20, 21–30, 31–40, 41–50, 51–60, 61–70, 71–80, and 81–90 years. Level of whitening was categorized as level 0: no whitening, level 1: 1–3 strands, level 2: 3–10 strands, level 3: 10 strands–2/3 whitening, level 4: >3/4 whitening. Results Mean age was 42.39±20.01. While there was no eyebrow whitening in 87% of the subjects, level 4 whitening of eyebrows was observed in 0,8% of the subjects. There was no eyelash whitening in 97,7% of the subjects and no level 4 eyelash whitening was detected in any subject. Men had significantly more level 1, 2, 3, and 4 eyebrow whitening compared with women. There was no gender difference in terms of eyelash whitening level. There was no eyebrow and eyelash whitening in subjects age 1–40 years; whitening began in the 41–50 years age group and increased with age in other groups. Mean age was 39.59±19.63 years in subjects with no eyebrow whitening; 59 years in level 1, 61 years in level 2, 63 years in level 3, and 69 years in level 4 eyebrow whitening. Mean age was 41.85±19.87 in subjects with no eyelash whitening; and 63.57±10.75 in those with whitening. Conclusions Particularly after 41–50 years of age, level of eyebrow and eyelash whitening may be among a useful age estimation parameter. PMID:24448310

  13. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  14. Non-parametric estimation of age-related centiles over wide age ranges.

    PubMed

    Pan, H Q; Goldstein, H; Yang, Q

    1990-01-01

    A new method for estimating age-related centile curves has been developed, which is suitable for measurement covering a wide age range. The method was used to calculate weight centile curves of 8995 children from birth to 6 years obtained by the Collaborating Centre for Physical Growth and Psychosocial Development of Children in Shanghai, China.

  15. Dental age estimation using Willems method: A digital orthopantomographic study

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Krishnamraju, P. V.; Prasanth, P. S.; Sanghvi, Praveen; Lata Reddy, M. Asha; Jyotsna, S.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, age estimation has become increasingly important in living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as a birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army, and retirement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of left seven mandibular teeth for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population using Willems method. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomogram of 332 subjects (166 males, 166 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular teeth (from central incisor to the second molar on left quadrant) development was undertaken and DA was assessed using Willems method. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males (r = 0.71 and females (r = 0.88). The overall mean difference between the estimated DA and CA for males was 0.69 ± 2.14 years (P < 0.001) while for females, it was 0.08 ± 1.34 years (P > 0.05). Willems method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.69 years and females by 0.08 years and showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. The mean difference between DA and CA according to Willems method was 0.39 years and is statistically significant (P < 0.05). Conclusion: This study showed significant relation between DA and CA. Thus, digital radiographic assessment of mandibular teeth development can be used to generate mean DA using Willems method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. PMID:25191076

  16. Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

  17. How old am I? Age estimation in living adults: a case report.

    PubMed

    Cattaneo, C; De Angelis, D; Ruspa, M; Gibelli, D; Cameriere, R; Grandi, M

    2008-12-01

    Age estimation is a common task in forensic medicine. Odontologists are frequently involved in the age assessment of human remains or living juveniles. The need to estimate the age of living individuals is becoming more frequent, because of the increasing number of immigrants (illegal or otherwise) without acceptable identification documents and with missing or uncertain birth dates. Whereas age estimation in subadults is usually performed by methods based on the physiological growth of bones and teeth, in the case of living adults age determination is more difficult, because body maturation has come to an end and the most commonly used procedures in forensics on human remains are too invasive for the living individual. The following case report aims at highlighting the difficulties of performing age estimation in the living adult and the importance of a multidisciplinary approach including forensic odontology: a middle-aged woman from Ethiopia who was supposed to be 62 years old (according to one set of documents), was removed from employment lists as she had reached the retirement age for Italy. However another set of documents indicated a younger age (46 years). Hormonal dosage of E2 (17-β estradiol) and FSH (Follicle Stimulating Hormone) showed an age close to the begininng of menopause. An experimental dental method, based on the decrease of canine pulp chamber with age, was performed in order to obtain more information: the result was an estimation of a 47-57 age range. Combined results suggested that it was more likely that the actual age of the woman was closer to 46 than to 62.

  18. Demirjian approach of dental age estimation: Abridged for operator ease

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Vanshika; Kapoor, Priyanka; Miglani, Ragini

    2016-01-01

    Background: Present times have seen an alarming increase in incidence of crimes by juveniles and of mass destruction that Highlight the preponderance of individual age estimation. Of the numerous techniques employed for age assessment, dental age estimation (DAE) and its correlation with chronological age (CA) have been of great significance in the recent past. Demirjian system, considered as gold standard in DAE is a simple and convenient method for DAE, though,, although, referring to multiple tables make it cumbersome and less eco friendly due to excessive paper load. Aim: The present study was aimed to develop a comprehensive chart (DAEcc) inclusive of all Demirjian tables and developmental stages of teeth and also to as well as to test the operator ease of 50 undergraduate dental students in performing DAE using this chart. Materials and Methods: The study was performed in two stages, wherein the first stage was aimed at formulation of the comprehensive chart (DAECC) which included pictorial representation of calcification stages, the Federation Dentaire Internationale notation of the teeth, and the corresponding scores for each stage with a concluding column at the end to enter the total score. The second stage assessed the applicability of the ease of DAE by DAECC, whereby fifty 2nd year BDS students were asked to trace the calcification stages of the seven permanent left mandibular teeth on a panorex, identify the correct stage, assign the corresponding score, and to calculate the total score for subsequent dental age assessment. Results and Conclusions: showed that average time taken by the students for tracing seven mandibular teeth was 5 min and for assessment of dental age was 7 min. The total time taken for DAE was approximately 12 min, thus making the procedure less time consuming. Hence, this study proposes the use of DAEcc for age estimation due to ease in comprehension and execution of Demirjian system. PMID:28123280

  19. Recollection, not familiarity, decreases in healthy aging: Converging evidence from four estimation methods

    PubMed Central

    Koen, Joshua D.; Yonelinas, Andrew P.

    2014-01-01

    Although it is generally accepted that aging is associated with recollection impairments, there is considerable disagreement surrounding how healthy aging influences familiarity-based recognition. One factor that might contribute to the mixed findings regarding age differences in familiarity is the estimation method used to quantify the two mnemonic processes. Here, this issue is examined by having a group of older adults (N = 39) between 40 and 81 years of age complete Remember/Know (RK), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and process dissociation (PD) recognition tests. Estimates of recollection, but not familiarity, showed a significant negative correlation with chronological age. Inconsistent with previous findings, the estimation method did not moderate the relationship between age and estimations of recollection and familiarity. In a final analysis, recollection and familiarity were estimated as latent factors in a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) that modeled the covariance between measures of free recall and recognition, and the results converged with the results from the RK, PD, and ROC tasks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that episodic memory declines in older adults are primary driven by recollection deficits, and also suggest that the estimation method plays little to no role in age-related decreases in familiarity. PMID:25485974

  20. Dental age estimation in Brazilian HIV children using Willems' method.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Rafael Boschetti; da Silva Assunção, Luciana Reichert; Franco, Ademir; Zaroni, Fábio Marzullo; Holderbaum, Rejane Maria; Fernandes, Ângela

    2015-12-01

    The notification of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in Brazilian children was first reported in 1984. Since that time more than 21 thousand children became infected. Approximately 99.6% of the children aged less than 13 years old are vertically infected. In this context, most of the children are abandoned after birth, or lose their relatives in a near future, growing with uncertain identification. The present study aims to estimate the dental age of Brazilian HIV patients in face of healthy patients paired by age and gender. The sample consisted of 160 panoramic radiographs of male (n: 80) and female (n: 80) patients aged between 4 and 15 years (mean age: 8.88 years), divided into HIV (n: 80) and control (n: 80) groups. The sample was analyzed by three trained examiners, using Willems' method, 2001. Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied to test intra- and inter-examiner agreement, and Student paired t-test was used to determine the age association between HIV and control groups. Intra-examiner (ICC: from 0.993 to 0.997) and inter-examiner (ICC: from 0.991 to 0.995) agreement tests indicated high reproducibility of the method between the examiners (P<0.01). Willems' method revealed discrete statistical overestimation in HIV (2.86 months; P=0.019) and control (1.90 months; P=0.039) groups. However, stratified analysis by gender indicate that overestimation were only concentrated in male HIV (3.85 months; P=0.001) and control (2.86 months; P=0.022) patients. The significant statistical differences are not clinically relevant once only few months of discrepancy are detected applying Willems' method in a Brazilian HIV sample, making this method highly recommended for dental age estimation of both HIV and healthy children with unknown age.

  1. Forensic age estimation in human skeletal remains: current concepts and future directions.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    Skeletal identification has a long tradition in both physical and forensic anthropology. The process generally begins with formulation of a biological profile (osteobiography); specifically, estimation of sex, age, ethnicity and stature. The present paper briefly reviews a selection of the principal methods used for one aspect of the identification process; the estimation of personal age. It is well-documented that variability in the morphological features used to assess age in the human skeleton progressively increases from birth to old age. Thus choice of method is inherently related to whether unidentified remains are those of a juvenile or an adult. This review, therefore, considers methods appropriate for age estimation in both juvenile and adult remains; the former being primarily based on developmental, and the latter degenerative, morphological features. Such a review is timely as new methods are constantly being developed, concurrent with refinements to those already well established in mainstream anthropology.

  2. Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.

    PubMed

    Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika

    2013-12-10

    Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age.

  3. Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu

    2005-10-01

    We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.

  4. Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects.

    PubMed

    Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu

    2005-10-01

    We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.

  5. An improved sample preparation for an LC method used in the age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization from human dentin.

    PubMed

    Yekkala, Raja; Meers, Carine; Hoogmartens, Jos; Lambrichts, Ivo; Willems, Guy; Van Schepdael, Ann

    2007-01-01

    The determination of age on the basis of aspartic acid (Asp) racemization in teeth is one of the most reliable and accurate methods to date. In this paper, the usefulness of HPLC coupled with fluorescence detection for determination of Asp racemization was evaluated. A modified sample preparation is proposed for better stability of o-phthaldialdehyde-N-acetyl-L-cysteine derivatives of D/L-Asp (due to the instability below pH 7). To ensure the accuracy of the method, the validation parameters' specificity, precision, linearity, and LOD were determined. Three dentin samples of premolar teeth, extracted from living individuals (bucco-lingual longitudinal sections of 1 mm thickness), were analyzed and quantitative results are discussed.

  6. ESTIMATED DAILY AVERAGE PER CAPITA WATER INGESTION BY CHILD AND ADULT AGE CATEGORIES BASED ON USDA'S 1994-96 AND 1998 CONTINUING SURVEY OF FOOD INTAKES BY INDIVIDUALS (JOURNAL ARTICLE)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The ...

  7. A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications

  8. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  9. Sap flow based transpiration estimates in species-rich secondary forests of different ages in central Panama during a wet-season drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

    2015-12-01

    Many landscapes that were previously covered by mature tropical forests in central Panama today comprise of a mosaic of mature forest fragments, pastures and agricultural land, and regrowing secondary forests. An increasing demand for water due to urbanization and the expansion of the Panama Canal, along with a predicted transition into a dryer climatic period necessitate a better understanding regarding the effects of land use and land use history on hydrological processes. Such knowledge, including water storage, residence times, and fluxes is essential to develop effective land management strategies and propose incentives to alter land use practices to enhance hydrological services. To quantify transpiration rates at different stages of secondary forest succession, we measured sap flow in forests growing for 8, ~25, and 80+ years since last known land use in the 15 km2 "Agua Salud" study area, located in central Panama. In each forest, we selected a subset of at least 15 individuals, representing the local tree size distribution, and recorded data from heat-ratio sap flow sensors every 30 minutes starting in February 2015. All instrumented trees were identified to species and compared to local species distributions. Basal area in the three forest types was 9.1, 10.8, and 50.2 m2 ha-1 for 8, ~25, and 80+ year old forests, respectively. Average daily transpiration was highly correlated to forest age, with highest rates in the oldest forest (3.0 to 18.2 mm ha-1 day-1), followed by intermediate (1.2 to 6.7 mm ha-1 day-1) and youngest forests (0.2 to 2.7 mm ha-1 day-1), suggesting roughly a doubling in transpiration from 8 to ~25 year old forests, despite similar basal area, and again from ~25 to 80+ year old forests. Flow rates in individual trees generally reflected the dry-to-wet season transition but behaved differently in response to the unprecedentedly dry conditions during the first half of 2015 in central Panama.

  10. Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2008-01-01

    Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

  11. Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2017-03-30

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

  12. Estimating the age of alleles by use of intraallelic variability

    SciTech Connect

    Slatkin, M.; Rannala, B.

    1997-02-01

    A method is presented for estimating the age of an allele by use of its frequency and the extent of variation among different copies. The method uses the joint distribution of the number of copies in a population sample and the coalescence times of the intraallelic gene genealogy conditioned on the number of copies. The linear birth-death process is used to approximate the dynamics of a rare allele in a finite population. A maximum-likelihood estimate of the age of the allele is obtained by Monte Carlo integration over the coalescence times. The method is applied to two alleles at the cystic fibrosis (CFTR) locus, {Delta}F508 and G542X, for which intraallelic variability at three intronic microsatellite loci has been examined. Our results indicate that G542X is somewhat older than {Delta}F508. Although absolute estimates depend on the mutation rates at the microsatellite loci, our results support the hypothesis that {Delta}F508 arose <500 generations ({approx}10,000 years) ago. 32 refs., 4 figs.

  13. [Observation of cervical vertebrae and estimation of their bone age].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Y; Wang, B

    1997-05-01

    There are two objectives in this study: the first is to estimate skeletal age by lateral cephalomatric roentgengram of cervical vertebrae instead of X-ray of handwrist, the second is to study the rules of cervical vertebrae's growth and development of children from Beijing. The Auto CAD 12.0 computer software was used in measuring lateral cephalomatric roentgengrams of cervical vertebrae of 280 children from Beijing aged 9-15. The shape of cervical vertebrae of children with that of adults on X-ray films was compared, and the growth and development of cervical vertebrae of 9-15 years old children from Beijing was observed. We found out that the rapid growth period of cervical vertebrae was 12-14 years old for girls and 14-15 years old for boys. During puberty, the change of vertebrae's shape has no difference between male and female. 42 female and 28 male teenagers from the 280 aged 9-13 years old were taken X-ray films of left handwrist. The comparison between the films and roentgengrams shows that the appearance of sesamoid of hand and the concavity of the second vertebrae body is at the same time, which means that the beginning of rapid growth period can be estimated by the lateral cephalometric roentgengrams of cervical vertebrae.

  14. Development of a biometric method to estimate age on hand radiographs.

    PubMed

    Remy, Floriane; Hossu, Gabriela; Cendre, Romain; Micard, Emilien; Mainard-Simard, Laurence; Felblinger, Jacques; Martrille, Laurent; Lalys, Loïc

    2017-02-01

    Age estimation of living individuals aged less than 13, 18 or 21 years, which are some relevant legal ages in most European countries, is currently problematic in the forensic context. Thus, numerous methods are available for legal authorities, although their efficiency can be discussed. For those reasons, we aimed to propose a new method, based on the biometric analysis of hand bones. 451 hand radiographs of French individuals under the age of 21 were retrospectively analyzed. This total sample was divided into three subgroups bounded by the relevant legal ages previously mentioned: 0-13, 13-18 and 18-21 years. On these radiographs, we numerically applied the osteometric board method used in anthropology, by including each metacarpal and proximal phalange of the five hand rays in the smallest rectangle possible. In that we can access their length and width information thanks to a measurement protocol developed precisely for our treatment with the ORS Visual(®) software. Then, a statistical analysis was performed from these biometric data: a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) evaluated the probability for an individual to belong to one of the age group (0-13, 13-18 or 18-21); and several multivariate regression models were tested for the establishment of age estimation formulas for each of these age groups. The mean Correlation Coefficient between chronological age and both lengths and widths of hand bones is equal to 0.90 for the total sample. Repeatability and reproducibility were assessed. The LDA could more easily predict the belonging to the 0-13 age group. Age can be estimated with a mean standard error which never exceeds 1 year for the 95% confidence interval. Finally, compared to the literature, we can conclude that estimating an age from the biometric information of metacarpals and proximal phalanges is promising.

  15. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana).

    PubMed

    Stansfield, Fiona J

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified.

  16. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana)

    PubMed Central

    Stansfield, Fiona J.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These ‘Age Reference Lines’ were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70–75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  17. The circles of life: age at death estimation in burnt teeth through tooth cementum annulations.

    PubMed

    Oliveira-Santos, Inês; Gouveia, Márcia; Cunha, Eugénia; Gonçalves, David

    2017-03-01

    Age at death estimation in burnt human remains is problematic due to the severe heat-induced modifications that may affect the skeleton after a burning event. The objective of this paper was to assess if cementochronology, which focuses on the cementum incremental lines, is a reliable method of age estimation in burnt remains. Besides the classical approach based on the counting of incremental lines, another approach based on the extrapolation of incremental lines taking into account the cement layer thickness and the incremental line thickness was investigated. A comparison of the performance of the two techniques was carried out on a sample of 60 identified monoradicular teeth that were recently extracted at dentist offices and then experimentally burnt at two maximum temperatures (400 and 900 °C). Micrographs of cross-sections of the roots were taken via an optical microscope with magnification of ×100, ×200 and ×400. Incremental line counting and measurements were carried out with the ImageJ software. Age estimation based on incremental line counting in burnt teeth had no significant correlation with chronological age (p = 0.244 to 0.914) and led to large absolute mean errors (19 to 21 years). In contrast, age estimation based on the extrapolation approach showed a significant correlation with known age (p = 0.449 to 0.484). In addition, the mean absolute error of the latter was much smaller (10 to 14 years). The reason behind this discrepancy is the heat-induced dimensional changes of incremental lines that affect their visibility and individualization thus complicating line counting. Our results indicated that incremental lines extrapolation is successful at solving this problem and that the resulting age estimation is much more reliable.

  18. Preliminary age, growth and maturity estimates of spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) in British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, J. R.; McPhie, R. P.

    2015-05-01

    The spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) is a chimaeroid ranging from southeast Alaska to Baja California and found at depths of up to 1029 m. Despite being widespread and ubiquitous, few biological parameter estimates exist for spotted ratfish due to a lack of suitable ageing structures to estimate age and growth. We present preliminary results of age, growth and maturity estimates based on a new method in which tritor ridges are counted on the vomerine tooth plate. We also provide a method for estimating the number of worn tritor ridges based on tooth plate diameter measurements for the spotted ratfish. The tritor ridges are distinct bumps that are easy to identify and precision estimates between readers suggests that this method is transferable. Tritor ridges are a potential structure for estimating age in H. colliei and we provide recommendations for future research to improve the method. We sampled 269 spotted ratfish captured in trawl surveys off the coast British Columbia ranging in size from 74 to 495 mm in precaudal length (PCL). The estimated ages ranged from 2 to 16 years for males and from 2 to 21 years for females. The von Bertalanffy, von Bertalanffy with known size at birth, Gompertz and logistic growth models were fitted to the data. Based on Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size and number of parameters estimated, the logistic growth curve was selected as most suitable. The logistic growth model yielded the following parameter estimates: Linf=407.22 mm (PCL), k=0.23 year-1, t0=-7.06 years for males; L∞=494.52 mm (PCL), k=0.26 year-1, t0=-8.35 years for females. Estimated ages at 50% maturity were 12 and 14 years for males and females, respectively. Correspondingly, the size at 50% maturity estimates was smaller for males (302 mm, PCL) than females (393 mm, PCL). Both estimates are larger than those made for spotted ratfish off of California indicating regional differences in life history traits for this species. Our preliminary

  19. Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area

    SciTech Connect

    Pittenger, D B

    1992-02-01

    The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.

  20. Reliability of age estimation from iliac auricular surface in a subactual Chilean sample.

    PubMed

    Herrera, María José; Retamal, Rodrigo

    2017-02-14

    The aim of this study was to test the reliability of Osborne et al. (2004) [8] age estimation based on the iliac auricular surface of the ilium. We selected 172 skeletons with documented sex and age-at-death and established six uniformly distributed age intervals for analysis. ANOVA was employed to assess the association of the documented age with sex and the auricular surface classification. We employed Bonferroni post-hoc tests to find any statistical differences across documented ages within each phase of Osborne's criteria. While the ANOVA showed a significant association between the documented age and the auricular surface classification, post-hoc tests found that phases 2 and 3 were the only consecutive phases with significant differences. We argue that a lack of statistical significance between consecutive phases undermines the reliability of this method for forensic purposes especially in middle adults. It may be possible that the collapse of intermediate phases would increase the accuracy of this method.

  1. Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  2. Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) pupae: a timeline of external morphological development and a new age and PMI estimation tool.

    PubMed

    Brown, Katherine; Thorne, Alan; Harvey, Michelle

    2015-07-01

    The minimum postmortem interval (PMI(min)) is commonly estimated using calliphorid larvae, for which there are established age estimation methods based on morphological and development data. Despite the increased duration and sedentary nature of the pupal stage of the blowfly, morphological age estimation methods are poorly documented and infrequently used for PMI determination. The aim of this study was to develop a timeline of metamorphosis, focusing on the development of external morphology (within the puparium), to provide a means of age and PMI estimation for Calliphora vicina (Rob-Desvoidy) pupae. Under controlled conditions, 1,494 pupae were reared and sampled at regular time intervals. After puparium removal, observations of 23 external metamorphic developments were correlated to age in accumulated degree hours (ADH). Two age estimation methods were developed based on (1) the combination of possible age ranges observed for each characteristic and (2) regression analyses to generate age estimation equations employing all 23 characteristics observed and a subset of ten characteristics most significantly correlated with age. Blind sample analysis indicated that, using the combination of both methods, pupal age could be estimated to within ±500 ADH with 95% reliability.

  3. Accuracy of the estimation of dental age in comparison with chronological age in a Spanish sample of 2641 living subjects using the Demirjian and Nolla methods.

    PubMed

    Melo, María; Ata-Ali, Javier

    2017-01-01

    Age estimation is an important procedure in forensic medicine and is carried out for a number of reasons. For living persons, age estimation is performed in order to assess whether a child has attained the age of criminal responsibility, in scenarios involving rape, kidnapping or marriage, in premature births, adoption procedures, illegal immigration, pediatric endocrine diseases and orthodontic malocclusion, as well as in circumstances in which the birth certificate is not available or the records are suspect. According to data from the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), the number of people seeking refugee status continued to increase in the last years, driven by the wars in Syria and Iraq, as well as by conflict and instability in Afghanistan, Eritrea and elsewhere. The objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of estimating dental age versus chronological age using the Nolla and Demirjian methods in a Spanish population. A final sample of 2641 panoramic X-rays corresponding to Spanish patients (1322 males and 1319 females) between 7-21 years of age was analyzed. Dental age was assessed using the Nolla and Demirjian methods, establishing comparisons with mean chronological age based on the Student t-test for paired samples, followed by the generation of a linear regression model. Both methods showed slight discrepancy between dental and chronological age. On examining the reproducibility of the Nolla and Demirjian methods, technical errors of 0.84% and 0.62%, respectively, were observed. On average, the Nolla method was found to estimate an age 0.213years younger than the chronological age, while the Demirjian method estimated an age 0.853years older than the chronological age. Linear combination of the mean Nolla and Demirjian estimates increased the predictive capacity to 99.2%. In conclusion the Nolla and Demirjian methods were found to be accurate in estimating chronological age from dental age in a Spanish population. The error

  4. Near infrared spectroscopy for estimating the age of malaria transmiting mosquitoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milali, Masabho Peter

    We explore the use of near infrared spectrometry to classifying the age of a wild malaria transmitting mosquito. In Chapter Two, using a different set of lab-reared mosquitoes, we replicate the Mayagaya et al. study of the accuracy of near-infrared spectrometry (NIRS) to estimate the age of lab-reared mosquitoes, reproducing the published accuracy. Our results strengthen the Mayagaya et. al study and increase confidence in using NIRS to estimate age classes of mosquitoes. In the field, we wish to classify the ages of wild, not lab-reared mosquitoes, but the necessary training data from wild mosquitoes is difficult to find. Applying a model trained on spectra from lab-reared mosquitoes to estimate the age of wild mosquitoes is appropriate only if spectra collected from lab-reared mosquitoes are equivalent to those collected from wild mosquitoes. In Chapter Three, we apply k-means cluster analysis to a mixture of spectra collected from lab-reared and wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes to determine if there is significant difference between these spectra. We find no significant difference (P = 0.245) in distributions between the wild and lab-reared mosquitoes in the two formed clusters. The two formed clusters have average silhouette coefficient values (cluster quality measure) of 0.51 and 0.77, respectively, which shows that the clusters were reasonable and strong, respectively. Basing on results from Chapter Three, we estimate the age class of wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes using a classification model trained on lab-reared Anopheles arabiensis. We validate the accuracy of the model by comparing its estimates with ovary dissection estimates. While our model estimated 86% and 14% of wild Anopheles arabiensis to be < 7 and ≥ 7 days old, respectively, ovary dissection estimated 72% as young and 28% as old. Studies show that wild mosquito populations generally consist of more young than old mosquitoes. Therefore, our model estimates age of wild mosquitoes in

  5. A Bayesian Approach to Age-at-Death Estimation from Osteoarthritis of the Shoulder in Modern North Americans.

    PubMed

    Brennaman, Ashley L; Love, Kim R; Bethard, Jonathan D; Pokines, James T

    2016-12-08

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a marker of degeneration within the skeleton, frequently associated with age. This study quantifies the correlation between OA and age-at-death and investigates the utility of shoulder OA as a forensic age indicator using a modern North American sample of 206 individuals. Lipping, surface porosity, osteophyte formation, eburnation, and percentage of joint surface affected were recorded on an ordinal scale and summed to create composite scores that were assigned a specific phase. Spearman's correlation indicated a positive relationship between each composite score and age (right shoulder = 0.752; left shoulder = 0.734). Transition analysis revealed a tendency toward earlier degeneration of the right shoulder. Bayesian statistics generated phase-related age estimates based on highest posterior density regions. Best age estimates were into the seventh decade at the 90th and 50th percentile. The proposed method supplements traditional techniques by providing age estimates beyond a homogenous 50+ age cohort.

  6. Age estimation in Indian children and adolescents in the NCR region of Haryana: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Swati; Mehendiratta, Monica; Rehani, Shweta; Kumra, Madhumani; Nagpal, Ruchi; Gupta, Ramakant

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is a preliminary step in the identification of an individual. It is a crucial and often most critical step for forensic experts. The assessment has been standardized utilizing common dental diagnostic x-rays, but most such age-estimating systems are European population-based and their applicability has not been determined in the context of the Indian population. Aims and Objectives: To assess the applicability and to compare the methods of dental age estimation by Demirjian's method and the same method as modified by Willems (i.e. the Willems method) in Indian children of the National Capital Region (NCR). Also, to find a correlation among skeletal maturity using the Cervical vertebrae maturation index (CVMI), dental maturity, and chronological age in the same population. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using dental radiographs of 70 orthodontic patients (37 males, 33 females) in the age range 9-16 years selected by simple random sampling. pantomogram were used to estimate dental age by Demirjian's method and the Willems method using their scoring tables. Lateral cephalograms were used to estimate skeletal maturity using CVMI. The latter was compared with Demirjian's stage for mandibular left second molar. Results: Overestimation of age among males by 0.856 years and 0.496 years was found by Demirjian's and the Willems methods, respectively. Among females, both the methods underestimated the age by 0.31 years and 0.45 years, respectively. Demirjian's stage G corresponded to CVMI stage 3 in males and stage 2 in females. Conclusion: In our study, the Willems method has proved to be more accurate for age estimation among Indian males, and Demirjian's method for Indian females. A statistically significant association appeared between Demirjian's stages and CVMI among both males and females. Our study recommends the derivation of a regression formula by studying a larger section of the Indian population

  7. Accuracy of developing tooth length as an estimate of age in human skeletal remains: the deciduous dentition.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V

    2007-10-02

    Dental age assessments are widely used to estimate age of immature skeletal remains. Most methods have relied on fractional stages of tooth emergence and formation, particularly of the permanent dentition, for predicting the age of infants and very young children. In this study, the accuracy of regression equations of developing deciduous tooth length for age estimation (Liversidge et al.) is tested on a sample of 30 Portuguese subadult skeletons of known age at death. Overall the method shows high accuracy and the average difference between estimated and chronological age is between 0.20 and -0.14 years when using single teeth, and 0.06 years, when using all available teeth. However, there is a tendency for the deciduous molars to provide overestimates of chronological age. Results show that age estimates can be obtained within +/-0.10 years with a 95% confidence interval when several teeth are used. Overall between-tooth agreement in age estimates decreases with increasing age but there is less variability of estimates with more teeth contributing to overall mean age. One seemingly limitation of this method may be the fact that it was developed by combining the maxillary and mandibular teeth. The other is related to the accuracy with which radiographic tooth length can be used as a valid surrogate for actual tooth length. Nevertheless, the advantages of this metric method surpass the limitations of chronologies based on stages of dental development.

  8. Estimating Black Carbon Aging Time-Scales with a Particle-Resolved Aerosol Model

    SciTech Connect

    Riemer, Nicole; West, Matt; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Easter, Richard C.

    2010-01-13

    Understanding the aging process of aerosol particles is important for assessing their chemical reactivity, cloud condensation nuclei activity, radiative properties and health impacts. In this study we investigate the aging of black carbon containing particles in an idealized urban plume using a new approach, the particleresolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. We present a method to estimate aging time-scales using an aging criterion based on cloud condensation nuclei activation. The results show a separation into a daytime regime where condensation dominates and a nighttime regime where coagulation dominates. For the chosen urban plume scenario, depending on the supersaturation threshold, the values for the aging timescales vary between 0.06 hours and 10 hours during the day, and between 6 hours and 20 hours during the night.

  9. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... age population estimates as of July 1, 2009, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are..., United States Code, Section 441a(e), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age...

  10. 78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-30

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are..., United States Code, Section 441a(e), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age...

  11. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... age population estimates as of July 1, 2010, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are...), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age population for July 1, 2010, for...

  12. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-26

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... age population estimates as of July 1, 2011, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are..., United States Code, Section 441a(e), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age...

  13. Age estimation of immature human skeletal remains from the diaphyseal length of the long bones in the postnatal period.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V; Abrantes, Joana; Humphrey, Louise T

    2014-09-01

    Age at death in immature human skeletal remains has been estimated from the diaphyseal length of the long bones, but few studies have actually been designed specifically for the purpose of age estimation and those which have, show important caveats. This study uses regression and classical calibration to model the relationship between age and diaphyseal length of the six long bones, in a sample of 184 known sex and age individuals (72 females and 112 males), younger than 13 years of age, selected from Portuguese and English skeletal collections. Age estimation models based on classical calibration were obtained for each of the six long bones, and separately for each sex and for the sexes combined, and also for the entire sample and when it is subdivided into two subsamples at the age of 2 years. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show there is a systematic bias in age estimations obtained from inverse calibration. In the classical calibration models, the length of the femur provides the most accurate estimates of age. Age estimates are more accurate for the male subsample and for individuals under the age of 2 years. These results and a test of previously published methods caution against inverse calibration as a technique for developing age estimation methods even from the immature skeleton. Age estimation methods developed using cemetery collections of identified human skeletons should not be uncritically applied to present-day populations from the same region since many populations have experienced dramatic secular trends in growth and adult height over the last century.

  14. Incompatible Ages for Clearwing Butterflies Based on Alternative Secondary Calibrations.

    PubMed

    Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Silva-Brandão, Karina L; Willmott, Keith R; Freitas, André V L; Brower, Andrew V Z

    2015-09-01

    The recent publication of a time-tree for the plant family Solanaceae (nightshades) provides the opportunity to use independent calibrations to test divergence times previously inferred for the diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini. Ithomiini includes clades that are obligate herbivores of Solanaceae, with some genera feeding on only one genus. We used 8 calibrations extracted from the plant tree in a new relaxed molecular-clock analysis to produce an alternative temporal framework for the diversification of ithomiines. We compared the resulting age estimates to: (i) a time-tree obtained using 7 secondary calibrations from the Nymphalidae tree of Wahlberg et al. (2009), and (ii) Wahlberg et al.'s (2009) original age estimates for the same clades. We found that Bayesian clock estimates were rather sensitive to a variety of analytical parameters, including taxon sampling. Regardless of this sensitivity however, ithomiine divergence times calibrated with the ages of nightshades were always on average half the age of previous estimates. Younger dates for ithomiine clades appear to fit better with factors long suggested to have promoted diversification of the group such as the uplifting of the Andes, in the case of montane genera. Alternatively, if ithomiines are as old as previous estimates suggest, the recent ages inferred for the diversification of Solanaceae seem likely to be seriously underestimated. Our study exemplifies the difficulty of testing hypotheses of divergence times and of choosing between alternative dating scenarios, and shows that age estimates based on seemingly plausible calibrations may be grossly incongruent.

  15. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age.

    PubMed

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker's age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by "naïve" listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers' natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60-65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20-25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40-45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed.

  16. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

    PubMed Central

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

  17. Channel Estimation in DCT-Based OFDM

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yulin; Zhang, Gengxin; Xie, Zhidong; Hu, Jing

    2014-01-01

    This paper derives the channel estimation of a discrete cosine transform- (DCT-) based orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) system over a frequency-selective multipath fading channel. Channel estimation has been proved to improve system throughput and performance by allowing for coherent demodulation. Pilot-aided methods are traditionally used to learn the channel response. Least square (LS) and mean square error estimators (MMSE) are investigated. We also study a compressed sensing (CS) based channel estimation, which takes the sparse property of wireless channel into account. Simulation results have shown that the CS based channel estimation is expected to have better performance than LS. However MMSE can achieve optimal performance because of prior knowledge of the channel statistic. PMID:24757439

  18. Estimating Decision Indices Based on Composite Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knupp, Tawnya Lee

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an IRT model that would enable the estimation of decision indices based on composite scores. The composite scores, defined as a combination of unidimensional test scores, were either a total raw score or an average scale score. Additionally, estimation methods for the normal and compound multinomial models…

  19. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-01-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

  20. Analysis of age-at-death estimation using data from a new, modern autopsy sample--part I: pubic bone.

    PubMed

    Hartnett, Kristen M

    2010-09-01

    This research tests the accuracy of age estimation from the pubic bone. Specimens were collected from decedents of known age, sex, and race at the Forensic Science Center (FSC) in Phoenix, Arizona. The collection consists of pubic bones and fourth rib ends from 419 males and 211 females, ranging in age from 18 to 99. Age-at-death was estimated by three observers using the Suchey-Brooks method. The correlation results indicate that there are significant differences in the observed versus actual ages (r = 0.68169, p < 0.001) and that there are significant interobserver differences. No significant differences were found in the intra-observer tests. The FSC pubic bones were sorted based on morphology without knowing age. New descriptions and age ranges were created. A phase seven was described and is comprised of males and females over 70 years of age-at-death.

  1. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    PubMed

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

  2. Applicability of Willems model for dental age estimations in Brazilian children.

    PubMed

    Franco, Ademir; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Souza, Paulo Henrique Couto; Willems, Guy

    2013-09-10

    Several studies described tooth development as a reliable pathway for age estimations. Depending on the considered life span, the dental age indicators vary. In children, combinations of developing teeth provide the best information about age. In sub adults third molar mineralization is almost exclusively considered. The aim of this study was, firstly, to verify the Willems model in a Brazilian sample. Secondly, to observe differences between the Willems model and a new developed Brazilian model. Thirdly, the information of permanent teeth (PM) and third molar (TM), development was combined for age estimation in children. A sample of 1357 panoramic radiographs of Brazilian males (M) and females (F), with age between 5 and 23 years was collected. The technique of Gleiser and Hunt modified by Kohler (1955) [34] was applied for third molar staging in the entire sample. The Demirjian staging technique was used on the mandibular left permanent teeth (except third molars) of all individuals from 5 to 15 years. Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics were performed to verify inter- and intra-observer reliabilities. Based on the obtained Demirjian scores the Willems model was verified. Next the data were split to develop a new Brazilian model based on the Willems method and to verify the established model. The accuracy in age prediction between the Willems model and the new Brazilian model was compared. Additionally, regression models including PM, TM and PM plus TM information were compared. The Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics revealed high agreement between observers (0.88 Kappa; 0.93 weighted Kappa). The differences between predicted and chronological age for the verified Willems model were expressed in mean errors of -0.17 and -0.38 year for F and M respectively. The differences in mean error between the new developed Brazilian model and the Willems model were 0.02 (F) and 0.20 (M) year. The regression models combining PT and TM information provided only in the age

  3. Global estimate of the incidence of clinical pneumonia among children under five years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Tomaskovic, Lana; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Campbell, Harry

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Clinical pneumonia (defined as respiratory infections associated with clinical signs of pneumonia, principally pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children under five years of age is still the leading cause of childhood mortality in the world. In this paper we aim to estimate the worldwide incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children. METHODS: Our estimate for the developing world is based on an analysis of published data on the incidence of clinical pneumonia from community based longitudinal studies. Among more than 2000 studies published since 1961, we identified 46 studies that reported the incidence of clinical pneumonia, and 28 of these met pre-defined quality criteria. FINDINGS: The estimate of the median incidence from those studies was 0.28 episodes per child-year (e/cy). The 25-75% interquartile range was 0.21-0.71. We assessed the plausibility of this estimate using estimates of global mortality from acute respiratory infections and reported case fatality rates for all episodes of clinical pneumonia reported in community-based studies or the case-fatality rate reported only for severe cases and estimates of the proportion of severe cases occurring in a defined population or community. CONCLUSION: The overlap between the ranges of the estimates implies that a plausible incidence estimate of clinical pneumonia for developing countries is 0.29 e/cy. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, 11-20 million (7-13%) of which are severe enough to require hospital admission. In the developed world no comparable data are available. However, large population-based studies report that the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children less than five years old is approximately 0.026 e/cy, suggesting that more than 95% of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries. PMID:15654403

  4. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    .33%); proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.36% (95% CI 97.40%, 97.46%); and Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.05 kg and (-2.15 kg; 2.24 kg). The height model fitted for MUAC classes was accurate and precise. For MUAC < 115 mm, the proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.15% (95% CI 96.90%, 97.42%) and the Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.08 kg and (-1.21 kg; 1.37 kg). For MUAC between 115 and 125 mm, the proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 98.93% (95% CI 98.82%, 99.03%) and Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.05 kg and (-1.15 kg; 1.24 kg). For MUAC > 125 mm, the proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 98.33% (95% CI 98.29%, 98.37%) and Bland-Altman bias and 95% limits of agreement were 0.05 kg and (-2.08 kg; 2.19 kg). Conclusions and Relevance Models estimating weight from height alone and height with MUAC class in children aged 6–59 months in a database from low-to-middle income countries were more accurate and precise than previous weight estimation tools. A height-based weight estimation tape stratified according to MUAC classes is proposed for children aged 6–59 months in limited-resource settings. PMID:27529816

  5. Age- and time-dependent prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus infection in drug users in France, 2004-2011: model-based estimation from two national cross-sectional serosurveys.

    PubMed

    Leon, L; Kasereka, S; Barin, F; Larsen, C; Weill-Barillet, L; Pascal, X; Chevaliez, S; Pillonel, J; Jauffret-Roustide, M; LE Strat, Y

    2017-04-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a public health issue worldwide. Injecting drug use remains the major mode of transmission in developed countries. Monitoring the HCV transmission dynamic over time is crucial, especially to assess the effect of harm reduction measures in drug users (DU). Our objective was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HCV infection in DU in France using data from a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted in 2004 and 2011. Age- and time-dependent HCV prevalence was estimated through logistic regression models adjusted for HIV serostatus or injecting practices. HCV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model linking prevalence and incidence. HCV prevalence decreased from 58·2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 49·7-66·8] in 2004 to 43·2% (95% CI 38·8-47·7) in 2011. HCV incidence decreased from 7·9/100 person-years (95% CI 6·4-9·4) in 2004 to 4·4/100 person-years (95% CI 3·3-5·9) in 2011. HCV prevalence and incidence were significantly associated with age, calendar time, HIV serostatus and injecting practices. In 2011, the highest estimated incidence was in active injecting DU (11·2/100 person-years). Given the forthcoming objective of generalizing access to new direct antiviral agents for HCV infection, our results contribute to decision-making and policy development regarding treatment scale-up and disease prevention in the DU population.

  6. Estimating the age of healthy infants from quantitative myelin water fraction maps.

    PubMed

    Dean, Douglas C; O'Muircheartaigh, Jonathan; Dirks, Holly; Waskiewicz, Nicole; Lehman, Katie; Walker, Lindsay; Piryatinsky, Irene; Deoni, Sean C L

    2015-04-01

    The trajectory of the developing brain is characterized by a sequence of complex, nonlinear patterns that occur at systematic stages of maturation. Although significant prior neuroimaging research has shed light on these patterns, the challenge of accurately characterizing brain maturation, and identifying areas of accelerated or delayed development, remains. Altered brain development, particularly during the earliest stages of life, is believed to be associated with many neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders. In this work, we develop a framework to construct voxel-wise estimates of brain age based on magnetic resonance imaging measures sensitive to myelin content. 198 myelin water fraction (VF(M) ) maps were acquired from healthy male and female infants and toddlers, 3 to 48 months of age, and used to train a sigmoidal-based maturational model. The validity of the approach was then established by testing the model on 129 different VF(M) datasets. Results revealed the approach to have high accuracy, with a mean absolute percent error of 13% in males and 14% in females, and high predictive ability, with correlation coefficients between estimated and true ages of 0.945 in males and 0.94 in females. This work represents a new approach toward mapping brain maturity, and may provide a more faithful staging of brain maturation in infants beyond chronological or gestation-corrected age, allowing earlier identification of atypical regional brain development.

  7. Mineral resources estimation based on block modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bargawa, Waterman Sulistyana; Amri, Nur Ali

    2016-02-01

    The estimation in this paper uses three kinds of block models of nearest neighbor polygon, inverse distance squared and ordinary kriging. The techniques are weighting scheme which is based on the principle that block content is a linear combination of the grade data or the sample around the block being estimated. The case study in Pongkor area, here is gold-silver resource modeling that allegedly shaped of quartz vein as a hydrothermal process of epithermal type. Resources modeling includes of data entry, statistical and variography analysis of topography and geological model, the block model construction, estimation parameter, presentation model and tabulation of mineral resources. Skewed distribution, here isolated by robust semivariogram. The mineral resources classification generated in this model based on an analysis of the kriging standard deviation and number of samples which are used in the estimation of each block. Research results are used to evaluate the performance of OK and IDS estimator. Based on the visual and statistical analysis, concluded that the model of OK gives the estimation closer to the data used for modeling.

  8. Estimation of individual age and season of death in woolly rhinoceros, Coelodonta antiquitatis (Blumenbach, 1799), from Sakha-Yakutia, Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirillova, Irina V.; Shidlovskiy, Fedor K.

    2010-11-01

    A unique find of a woolly rhinoceros skull bearing both nasal and frontal horns is described from a thermokarst lake of the Bol'shaya Chukoch'ya River basin in north-eastern Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia. Based on counts of cementum layers of the maxillary first molar and dark and transverse bands of the nasal and frontal horns a correlation of individual age records within these structures is established. Both estimations of individual age are agreed as well as three other age estimation criteria followed from cranial characteristics, general aspects of dentition and tooth wear pattern. Thus, the number of horn bands, which is equal to 30 or 31, does express the individual age at the moment when the woolly rhinoceros died. The tooth cementum and both horns are proved to be recording structures of woolly rhinoceroses which can be used as precise individual age estimation criteria. The season in which death occurred is also discussed.

  9. AN ALGORITHM FOR THE ESTIMATION OF GESTATIONAL AGE AT THE TIME OF FETAL DEATH

    PubMed Central

    Conway, Deborah L.; Hansen, Nellie I.; Dudley, Donald J.; Parker, Corette B.; Reddy, Uma M.; Silver, Robert M.; Bukowski, Radek; Pinar, Halit; Stoll, Barbara J.; Varner, Michael W.; Saade, George R.; Hogue, Carol; Willinger, Marian; Coustan, Donald; Koch, Matthew A.; Goldenberg, Robert L.

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurate assignment of gestational age at time of fetal death is important for research and clinical practice. An algorithm to estimate gestational age (GA) at fetal death was developed and evaluated. Methods The algorithm developed by the Stillbirth Collaborative Research Network (SCRN) incorporated clinical and postmortem data. The SCRN conducted a population-based case-control study of women with stillbirths and live births from 2006 to 2008 in five geographic catchment areas. Rules were developed to estimate a due date, identify an interval during which death likely occurred, and estimate GA at the time of fetal death. Reliability of using fetal foot length to estimate GA at death was assessed. Results The due date estimated for 620 singleton stillbirths studied was considered clinically reliable for 87%. Only 25.2% of stillbirths were documented alive within two days before diagnosis and 47.6% within one week of diagnosis. The algorithm-derived estimate of GA at time of fetal death was 1 or more weeks earlier than the GA at delivery for 43.5% of stillbirths. GA estimated from fetal foot length agreed with GA by algorithm within two weeks for 75% within a subset of well-dated stillbirths. Conclusions Precise assignment of GA at death, defined as reliable dating criteria and a short interval (≤1 week) during which fetal death was known to have occurred, was possible in 46.6% of cases. Fetal foot length is a relatively accurate measure of GA at death and should be collected in all stillbirth cases. PMID:23374059

  10. [The application of telomere DNA in age estimation of forensic medicine].

    PubMed

    Sun, Hong-wei; Gao, Cai-rong

    2005-05-01

    Estimating tooth age and skeletal age are the two primary methods in age estimation of forensic medicine. But they are often impacted with geographical environment, nutrition, habitation and ethenologic differences, so the accuracy will be reduced, especially to the adult. With the study of telomere, it is certain that the length of the telomere DNA can reflect the cell division and represent the cell lifespan, and it has some pertinence to the age of the donor, so to measure the length of telomere DNA is a new and valuable method for age estimation in the forensic medicine.

  11. Age and growth of round gobies in Lake Michigan, with preliminary mortality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huo, Bin; Madenjian, Charles P.; Xie, Cong X.; Zhao, Yingming; O'Brien, Timothy P.; Czesny, Sergiusz J.

    2015-01-01

    The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is a prevalent invasive species throughout Lake Michigan, as well as other Laurentian Great Lakes, yet little information is available on spatial variation in round goby growth within one body of water. Age and growth of round goby at three areas of Lake Michigan were studied by otolith analysis from a sample of 659 specimens collected from 2008 to 2012. Total length (TL) ranged from 48 to 131 mm for Sturgeon Bay, from 50 to 125 mm for Waukegan, and from 54 to 129 mm for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Ages ranged from 2 to 7 years for Sturgeon Bay, from 2 to 5 years for Waukegan, and from 2 to 6 years for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Area-specific and sex-specific body–otolith relationships were used to back-calculate estimates of total length at age, which were fitted to von Bertalanffy models to estimate growth rates. For both sexes, round gobies at Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan grew significantly faster than those at Sturgeon Bay. However, round goby growth did not significantly differ between Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan for either sex. At all three areas of Lake Michigan, males grew significantly faster than females. Based on catch curve analysis, estimates of annual mortality rates ranged from 0.79 to 0.84. These relatively high mortality rates suggested that round gobies may be under predatory control in Lake Michigan.

  12. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged <50 years. Data were extracted from IMS' PharMetrics Plus claims database for patients with a diagnosis of pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged <1 year. Method 2 gave an average annual projected incidence of 21/100,000. Method 3 gave an overall regression-estimated weighted annual incidence of pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged <50 years and provide further evidence that the majority of cases go undetected, especially with increasing age, may aid in the development of public health programs to reduce pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  13. Estimation of forensic age using substages of ossification of the medial clavicle in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Inci, Ercan; Can, Ismail Ozgur; Aksoy, Sema; Sayin, Ibrahim

    2015-11-01

    Forensic age estimation based on staging of ossification of the medial clavicular bone is one of the methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics of the German Association of Forensic Medicine. In the present study, we analyzed the stages of ossification of the medial clavicular epiphyses on thin-sliced (1 mm) computed tomography (CT) images using the substages defined within stages 2 and 3. The retrospective CT analysis involved 193 subjects (129 males, 64 females) ranging in age from 13 to 28 years. Spearman's correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between age and ossification stage in both male and female subjects. Stage 3c was first observed at 19 years of age in both sexes and may thus serve as a valuable forensic marker for determining an age of 18 years. Although further research is needed on the ossification stages of the medial clavicular epiphyses, the present findings could contribute to existing reports on observers' experiences using CT analysis of ossification combined with analysis of substages.

  14. Striking effect of time variation in the estimation of groundwater age in the Wairarapa valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrus, Karine; Toews, Michael; Daughney, Christopher; Cornaton, Fabien

    2014-05-01

    The Wairarapa Valley exhibits complex interactions between its rivers and shallow aquifers. With agriculture being an essential part of the region the risk of contamination and depletion of groundwater exists. In order to assist with water resource management in the region, we can do predictions with the help of numerical models. Among these predictions, the evaluation of groundwater age is critical for decision making. This project builds on work done by Greater Wellington Regional Council and will focus on the Wairarapa Valley. The aim of this study is to evaluate the age of the groundwater in the Wairarapa region. Investigations have already been done thanks to hydrochemistry. However radiometric age can be misleading in the sense that it does not consider the mixing process in the motion of groundwater particules. Therefore another approach can be considered .This latter is physic based by considering the age as a property that we transport through two main processes: advection at a macroscopic scale and diffusion at a microscopic scale. The determination of the distribution age by this approach has already been done for the Lake Rotorua but in the steady state case (cf Daughney). The unique contribution of the present study is to estimate the changes in groundwater age distribution through time within the region. Indeed transient simulations are needed to explicitly account for seasonally variable rainfall and pumping wells. This affects the simulated flow solution and then the simulated age solution. In order to solve numerically the transport of age distribution we have chosen to use the Time Marching Laplace Transform Galerkin technique which has been developed in a research code by Fabien Cornaton. The obtained results depict that temporal variations in groundwater age are present and have important implication for resource management

  15. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  16. Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus)

    PubMed Central

    Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J.

    2016-01-01

    African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6–24 months; 25–60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a

  17. Canine pulp ratios in estimating pensionable age in subjects with questionable documents of identification.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi

    2011-03-20

    One of the most interesting reasons for needing to estimate age in adult subjects is to ascertain the age of a person of questionable pensionable age. This problem is becoming increasingly important in Europe, owing to the high number of immigrants without valid birth certificates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the application of the apposition of secondary dentine of canines by the method of Cameriere et al. [10], in order to estimate the pensionable age of subjects without proper birth certificates. Periapical X-rays of 180 canines from 90 subjects aged between 50 and 79, 46 men and 44 women, were analysed. Estimated ages were used to test the medico-legal question as to whether an individual was older or younger than 65 years of age. In subjects under 65, age was correctly evaluated in 91% and 89% of individuals using maxillary and mandibular canines, respectively. In subjects over 65, of pensionable age, estimates were correct in 85% and 88% of cases, respectively. The proportion of individuals with correct classifications was 89% for both maxillary and mandibular canines taken together. In only four subjects, the results of maxillary and mandibular canines were discordant; in the other 86 subjects, the test of maxillary and mandibular canines yielded concordant results. Among the latter, the proportion of individuals who were really aged 65 years or older, and who were correctly estimated as such, was 94%, and the proportion of individuals younger than 65 years of age who were correctly estimated as such was 96%.

  18. New method for estimation of adult skeletal age at death from the morphology of the auricular surface of the ilium.

    PubMed

    Igarashi, Yuriko; Uesu, Kagumi; Wakebe, Tetsuaki; Kanazawa, Eisaku

    2005-10-01

    A new method for estimating skeletal age at death from the morphology of the auricular surface of the ilium is presented. It uses a multiple regression analysis with dummy variables, and is based on the examination of 700 modern Japanese skeletal remains with age records. The observer using this method needs only to check for the presence or absence of nine (for a male) or seven (for a female) features on the auricular surface and to select the parameter estimates of each feature, calculated by multiple regression analysis with dummy variables. The observer can obtain an estimated age from the sum of parameter estimates. It is shown that a fine granular texture of the auricular surface is typical of younger individuals, whereas a heavily porous texture is characteristic of older individuals, and that both of these features are very useful for estimating age. Our method is shown here to be more accurate than other methods, especially in the older age ranges. Since the auricular surface allows more expedient observations than other parts of the skeleton, this new method can be expected to improve the overall accuracy of estimating skeletal age at death.

  19. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  20. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  1. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  2. Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

    2015-01-01

    Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

  3. Estimating 14C groundwater ages in a methanogenic aquifer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aravena, Ramon; Wassenaar, Leonard I; Plummer, L. Niel

    1995-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of 14C age dating of groundwaters in a confined regional aquifer affected by methanogenesis. Increasing CH4 concentrations along the groundwater flow system and 13C and 14C isotopic data for dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, and CH4 clearly show the effect of methanogenesis on groundwater chemistry. Inverse reaction path modeling using NETPATH indicates the predominant geochemical reactions controlling the chemical evolution of groundwater in the aquifer are incongruent dissolution of dolomite, ion exchange, methanogenesis, and oxidation of sedimentary organic matter. Modeling of groundwater 14C ages using NETPATH indicates that a significant part of groundwater in the Alliston aquifer is less than 13,000 years old; however, older groundwater in the range of 15,000–23,000 years is also present in the aquifer. This paper demonstrates that 14C ages calculated using NETPATH, incorporating the effects of methanogenesis on the carbon pools, provide reasonable groundwater ages that were not possible by other isotopic methods.

  4. Radiologic assessment of third molar tooth and spheno-occipital synchondrosis for age estimation: a multiple regression analysis study.

    PubMed

    Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan

    2016-05-01

    For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P < 0.001) and also between age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P < 0.001). Based on the results obtained, an age determination formula using these scores was established.

  5. How old are you? Genet age estimates in a clonal animal.

    PubMed

    Devlin-Durante, M K; Miller, M W; Precht, W F; Baums, I B

    2016-11-01

    Foundation species such as redwoods, seagrasses and corals are often long-lived and clonal. Genets may consist of hundreds of members (ramets) and originated hundreds to thousands of years ago. As climate change and other stressors exert selection pressure on species, the demography of populations changes. Yet, because size does not indicate age in clonal organisms, demographic models are missing data necessary to predict the resilience of many foundation species. Here, we correlate somatic mutations with genet age of corals and provide the first, preliminary estimates of genet age in a colonial animal. We observed somatic mutations at five microsatellite loci in rangewide samples of the endangered coral, Acropora palmata (n = 3352). Colonies harboured 342 unique mutations in 147 genets. Genet age ranged from 30 to 838 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.195(-04) per locus per year based on colony growth rates and 236 to 6500 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.542(-05) per locus per year based on sea level changes to habitat availability. Long-lived A. palmata genets imply a large capacity to tolerate past environmental change, and yet recent mass mortality events in A. palmata suggest that capacity is now being frequently exceeded.

  6. A simple method for estimating informative node age priors for the fossil calibration of molecular divergence time analyses.

    PubMed

    Nowak, Michael D; Smith, Andrew B; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J

    2013-01-01

    Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates.

  7. A case of an adoptive girl with precocious puberty: the problem of age estimation.

    PubMed

    De Donno, Antonio; Roca, Roberta; Introna, Francesco; Santoro, Valeria

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is one of the main tasks of forensic anthropology and odontology, both on the dead and the living. In living subjects, age estimation may be used to establish an individual's status as a minor in cases involving adoption, criminal responsibility, child pornography, and those seeking asylum, especially where adequate identification documents are lacking. The authors report a case about age assessment of a girl born in Mbujimayi (Democratic Republic of Congo) and later adopted in Italy. The birth certificate issued after finding the child in a state of abandonment (in December 2007), bore date of 12.12.2004, but this was in contrast with the year of birth - 2003 - stated on the certification available to the center that had provided accommodation to the girl in Africa. Her adoptive parents reported that the child had been diagnosed with precocious puberty and was thus under treatment. She weighed 32.5 kg and was 132.5 cm tall. Body mass index (BMI) corresponded to the range between 9.5 and 14 years of age. The assessment of maturity indicators (sexual characteristics) placed the child at the lower limits of Stage II of Tanner's classification (sparse growth of long, slightly darkened, downy straight pubic hair; elevation of the breast and nipple as a small mound with increased diameter of the areolae). The skeletal age was determined by taking X-rays of the hand and wrist using Fels, TW2 and Greulich and Pyle methods. Dental growth was assessed through orthopantomogram using Demirjian's technique. The methods applied were adjusted considering the studies on African population found in the literature, and a skeletal and dental age of 10 years was established. Afterwards, the wrist X-rays performed at the Children's Hospital of Bari, 7 months before our investigation, revealed a skeletal age of 7 years. This evidence showed that, despite the treatment the child had promptly initiated, early puberty had influenced the skeletal growth with an acceleration

  8. Estimating Modifying Effect of Age on Genetic and Environmental Variance Components in Twin Models

    PubMed Central

    He, Liang; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko; Pitkäniemi, Janne

    2016-01-01

    Twin studies have been adopted for decades to disentangle the relative genetic and environmental contributions for a wide range of traits. However, heritability estimation based on the classical twin models does not take into account dynamic behavior of the variance components over age. Varying variance of the genetic component over age can imply the existence of gene–environment (G × E) interactions that general genome-wide association studies (GWAS) fail to capture, which may lead to the inconsistency of heritability estimates between twin design and GWAS. Existing parametric G × E interaction models for twin studies are limited by assuming a linear or quadratic form of the variance curves with respect to a moderator that can, however, be overly restricted in reality. Here we propose spline-based approaches to explore the variance curves of the genetic and environmental components. We choose the additive genetic, common, and unique environmental variance components (ACE) model as the starting point. We treat the component variances as variance functions with respect to age modeled by B-splines or P-splines. We develop an empirical Bayes method to estimate the variance curves together with their confidence bands and provide an R package for public use. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately capture dynamic behavior of the component variances in terms of mean square errors with a data set of >10,000 twin pairs. Using the proposed methods as an alternative and major extension to the classical twin models, our analyses with a large-scale Finnish twin data set (19,510 MZ twins and 27,312 DZ same-sex twins) discover that the variances of the A, C, and E components for body mass index (BMI) change substantially across life span in different patterns and the heritability of BMI drops to ∼50% after middle age. The results further indicate that the decline of heritability is due to increasing unique environmental variance, which provides

  9. Estimating the Ages of Selection Signals from Different Epochs in Human History

    PubMed Central

    Nakagome, Shigeki; Alkorta-Aranburu, Gorka; Amato, Roberto; Howie, Bryan; Peter, Benjamin M.; Hudson, Richard R.; Di Rienzo, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Genetic variation harbors signatures of natural selection driven by selective pressures that are often unknown. Estimating the ages of selection signals may allow reconstructing the history of environmental changes that shaped human phenotypes and diseases. We have developed an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to estimate allele ages under a model of selection on new mutations and under demographic models appropriate for human populations. We have applied it to two resequencing data sets: An ultra-high depth data set from a relatively small sample of unrelated individuals and a lower depth data set in a larger sample with transmission information. In addition to evaluating the accuracy of our method based on simulations, for each SNP, we assessed the consistency between the posterior probabilities estimated by the ABC approach and the ancient DNA record, finding good agreement between the two types of data and methods. Applying this ABC approach to data for eight single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we were able to rule out an onset of selection prior to the dispersal out-of-Africa for three of them and more recent than the spread of agriculture for an additional three SNPs. PMID:26545921

  10. Age estimation in Portuguese population: The application of the London atlas of tooth development and eruption.

    PubMed

    Pavlović, Strahinja; Palmela Pereira, Cristiana; Vargas de Sousa Santos, Rui Filipe

    2017-03-01

    Chronological age estimation from the dental parameters is becoming increasingly important. The London atlas of tooth development is the most recent developed method and represents a modification of the previous older methods. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the London atlas for the dental age estimation in the Portuguese population. The study sample included 736 radiographic images (498 females and 238 males) of Portuguese origin, patients of Dental Clinic of Superior Institute of Health Sciences Egas Moniz and Dental Medicine Faculty, University of Lisbon. The age range of the individuals was between 3 and 24 years. Estimated age was compared with the chronological age using the paired t-test. The results showed that there was no statistically significant difference between left and right side of the jaw (p>0.05). Both sides showed an average overestimation of age by one month approximately. Moreover, the significant difference between chronological and estimated age was not observed in the females. However, the significant difference was observed in a sample coming from males (right: p=0.008; left: p=0.003). Our results showed that the London atlas can be potentially used as a tool for age estimation. However, the difference between sexes clearly suggests that separate charts should be made for each sex. Further studies, which will have as a final goal the development of a new method for age estimation using dental parameters, are needed.

  11. [Some notes on methods of age estimation: an attempt in a Sundanese village, West Java].

    PubMed

    Igarashi, T

    1982-09-01

    This study is concerned with the problem of age misstatement in Indonesia. The author first presents an analysis of age data that were collected directly from the population of a Sundanese village in West Java and that indicate the extent of the problem. Various approaches used to estimate age and the problems associated with their use are then described. (summary in ENG)

  12. RESEARCH PAPER: Old stellar population synthesis: new age and mass estimates for Mayall II = G1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jun; de Grijs, Richard; Fan, Zhou; Rey, Soo-Chang; Wu, Zhen-Yu; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jiang-Hua; Jiang, Zhao-Ji; Chen, Jian-Sheng; Lee, Kyungsook; Sohn, Sangmo Tony

    2009-06-01

    Mayall II = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters (GCs) in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKS 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000 Å. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population (SSP) models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ~1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates (of order 107 Modot) indicate that G1 is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster's exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, (1.65±0.63) × 102 Lodot far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.

  13. Estimation of paleotemperature from racemization of aspartic acid in combination with radiocarbon age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minami, Masayo; Takeyama, Masami; Mimura, Koichi; Nakamura, Toshio

    2007-06-01

    We tried to estimate paleotemperatures from two chosen fossils by measuring D/L aspartic acid ratios and radiocarbon ages of the XAD-2-treated hydrolysate fractions in the fossils. The D/L aspartic acid ratio was measured with a gas chromatograph and radiocarbon dating was performed using a Tandetron AMS system at Nagoya University. The radiocarbon age of a fossil mammoth molar collected from Bykovsky Peninsula, eastern Siberia, was found to be 35,170 ± 300 BP as an average value for the XAD-treated hydrolysate fractions. The aspartic acid in the mammoth molar showed a little evidence of racemization, which might be due to in vivo racemization during the lifetime and then suggests negligible or no postmortem racemization during burial in permafrost. From four animal bone fossils collected from a shell mound excavated at the Awazu submarine archeological site in Lake Biwa, Shiga, Japan, the racemization-based effective mean temperature was calculated to be 15-16 °C using the D/L aspartic acid ratio of about 0.11 and the 14C age of 4500 BP for the XAD-2-treated hydrolysate fractions in the fossils. The average annual temperature was estimated to be 11-12 °C, which approximates to the temperature that the fossils experienced during burial at the site. Although the application of racemization ratios in fossils as paleotemperature indicators is surrounded with many difficulties, the results obtained in this study suggest its feasibility.

  14. The research on aging failure rate and optimization estimation of protective relay under haze conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying-kang; Zhou, Meng-ran; Yang, Jie; Zhou, Pei-qiang; Xie, Ying

    2017-01-01

    In the fog and haze, the air contains large amounts of H2S, SO2, SO3 and other acids, air conductivity is greatly improved, the relative humidity is also greatly increased, Power transmission lines and electrical equipment in such an environment will increase in the long-running failure ratedecrease the sensitivity of the detection equipment, impact protection device reliability. Weibull distribution is widely used in component failure distribution fitting. It proposes a protection device aging failure rate estimation method based on the least squares method and the iterative method,.Combined with a regional power grid statistics, computing protective equipment failure rate function. Binding characteristics of electrical equipment operation status under haze conditions, optimization methods, get more in line with aging protection equipment failure under conditions of haze characteristics.

  15. Age-based factors in femicide.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Ann Wolbert; Burgess, Allen G; Koehler, Steven A; Dominick, Joseph; Wecht, Cyril H

    2005-01-01

    Homicide is a topic of interest not only because of its severity but because it is a fairly reliable barometer of all violent crime, especially as it affects women. This exploratory study compared a group of murdered women over age 60 with a group of murdered women 30-59 and included age-based factors for both groups. Discussion focuses on forensics as insight to crime scene dynamics and homicidal behavior.

  16. Muscle parameters estimation based on biplanar radiography.

    PubMed

    Dubois, G; Rouch, P; Bonneau, D; Gennisson, J L; Skalli, W

    2016-11-01

    The evaluation of muscle and joint forces in vivo is still a challenge. Musculo-Skeletal (musculo-skeletal) models are used to compute forces based on movement analysis. Most of them are built from a scaled-generic model based on cadaver measurements, which provides a low level of personalization, or from Magnetic Resonance Images, which provide a personalized model in lying position. This study proposed an original two steps method to access a subject-specific musculo-skeletal model in 30 min, which is based solely on biplanar X-Rays. First, the subject-specific 3D geometry of bones and skin envelopes were reconstructed from biplanar X-Rays radiography. Then, 2200 corresponding control points were identified between a reference model and the subject-specific X-Rays model. Finally, the shape of 21 lower limb muscles was estimated using a non-linear transformation between the control points in order to fit the muscle shape of the reference model to the X-Rays model. Twelfth musculo-skeletal models were reconstructed and compared to their reference. The muscle volume was not accurately estimated with a standard deviation (SD) ranging from 10 to 68%. However, this method provided an accurate estimation the muscle line of action with a SD of the length difference lower than 2% and a positioning error lower than 20 mm. The moment arm was also well estimated with SD lower than 15% for most muscle, which was significantly better than scaled-generic model for most muscle. This method open the way to a quick modeling method for gait analysis based on biplanar radiography.

  17. Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

    PubMed

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2011-01-01

    Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies.

  18. The utility of near infrared spectroscopy for age estimation of deepwater sharks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigby, Cassandra L.; Wedding, Brett B.; Grauf, Steve; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable age information is vital for effective fisheries management, yet age determinations are absent for many deepwater sharks as they cannot be aged using traditional methods of growth bands counts. An alternative approach to ageing using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated using dorsal fin spines, vertebrae and fin clips of three species of deepwater sharks. Ages were successfully estimated for the two dogfish, Squalus megalops and Squalus montalbani, and NIRS spectra were correlated with body size in the catshark, Asymbolus pallidus. Correlations between estimated-ages of the dogfish dorsal fin spines and their NIRS spectra were good, with S. megalops R2=0.82 and S. montalbani R2=0.73. NIRS spectra from S. megalops vertebrae and fin clips that have no visible growth bands were correlated with estimated-ages, with R2=0.89 and 0.76, respectively. NIRS has the capacity to non-lethally estimate ages from fin spines and fin clips, and thus could significantly reduce the numbers of sharks that need to be lethally sampled for ageing studies. The detection of ageing materials by NIRS in poorly calcified deepwater shark vertebrae could potentially enable ageing of this group of sharks that are vulnerable to exploitation.

  19. Accuracy of Four Dental Age Estimation Methods in Southern Indian Children

    PubMed Central

    Sanghvi, Praveen; Perumalla, Kiran Kumar; Srinivasaraju, D.; Srinivas, Jami; Kalyan, U. Siva; Rasool, SK. Md. Iftekhar

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: For various forensic investigations of both living and dead individuals, the knowledge of the actual age or date of birth of the subject is of utmost importance. In recent years, age estimation has gained importance for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. Developing teeth are used to assess maturity and estimate age in number of disciplines; however the accuracy of different methods has not been assessed systematically. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of four dental age estimation methods. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomographs (OPGS) of South Indian children between the ages of 6 and 16 y who visited the department of Department of Oral medicine and Radiology of GITAM Dental College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India with similar ethnic origin were assessed. Dental age was calculated using Demirjian, Willems, Nolla, and adopted Haavikko methods and the difference between estimated dental age and chronological age were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: An overestimation of the dental age was observed by using Demirjian and Nolla methods (0.1±1.63, 0.47±0.83 years in total sample respectively) and an underestimation of dental age was observed by using Willems and Haavikko methods (-0.4±1.53, -2.9±1.41 years respectively in total sample). Conclusion: Nolla’s method was more accurate in estimating dental age compared to other methods. Moreover, all the four methods were found to be reliable in estimating age of individuals of unknown chronological age in South Indian children. PMID:25738008

  20. Improved age modelling and high-precision age estimates of late Quaternary tephras, for accurate palaeoclimate reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon P. E.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Pyle, D. M.

    2008-10-01

    The role of tephrochronology, as a dating and stratigraphic tool, in precise palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction, has expanded significantly in recent years. The power of tephrochronology rests on the fact that a tephra layer can stratigraphically link records at the resolution of as little as a few years, and that the most precise age for a particular tephra can be imported into any site where it is found. In order to maximise the potential of tephras for this purpose it is necessary to have the most precise and robustly tested age estimate possible available for key tephras. Given the varying number and quality of dates associated with different tephras it is important to be able to build age models to test competing tephra dates. Recent advances in Bayesian age modelling of dates in sequence have radically extended our ability to build such stratigraphic age models. As an example of the potential here we use Bayesian methods, now widely applied, to examine the dating of some key Late Quaternary tephras from Italy. These are: the Agnano Monte Spina Tephra (AMST), the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) and the Agnano Pomici Principali (APP), and all of them have multiple estimates of their true age. Further, we use the Bayesian approaches to generate a revised mixed radiocarbon/varve chronology for the important Lateglacial section of the Lago Grande Monticchio record, as a further illustration of what can be achieved by a Bayesian approach. With all three tephras we were able to produce viable model ages for the tephra, validate the proposed 40Ar/ 39Ar age ranges for these tephras, and provide relatively high precision age models. The results of the Bayesian integration of dating and stratigraphic information, suggest that the current best 95% confidence calendar age estimates for the AMST are 4690-4300 cal BP, the NYT 14320-13900 cal BP, and the APP 12380-12140 cal BP.

  1. [Problems associated with chronological age estimation of children exploited in child pornography production].

    PubMed

    Bednarek, Jarosław

    2006-01-01

    Chronological age assessment of young persons featuring in pornographic pictures and videos is crucial to prove a violation of law. The paper discusses possibilities of and difficulties inherent in age estimation in cases of production and distribution of child pornography. The presented problems were divided into technical and individual development-associated issues. Technical difficulties included lack of a reference system for biological features reconstruction, poor quality and resolution of pictures or movies, pictures retouching and photomontage. The author stressed that biological hindrances in age assessment were the consequences of interpersonal variation of developmental patterns, namely overlapping of ranges typical for feature values at particular ages and biological variations between different human populations. The described problems can render age estimation impossible or far from precise. Developing more accurate methods of estimating age from pictures and videos requires the collaboration of specialists in the field of auxology, anthropology, pediatrics, as well as experts in photography and video techniques.

  2. Modeling Bone Surface Morphology: A Fully Quantitative Method for Age-at-Death Estimation Using the Pubic Symphysis.

    PubMed

    Slice, Dennis E; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B

    2015-07-01

    The pubic symphysis is widely used in age estimation for the adult skeleton. Standard practice requires the visual comparison of surface morphology against criteria representing predefined phases and the estimation of case-specific age from an age range associated with the chosen phase. Known problems of method and observer error necessitate alternative tools to quantify age-related change in pubic morphology. This paper presents an objective, fully quantitative method for estimating age-at-death from the skeleton, which exploits a variance-based score of surface complexity computed from vertices obtained from a scanner sampling the pubic symphysis. For laser scans from 41 modern American male skeletons, this method produces results that are significantly associated with known age-at-death (RMSE = 17.15 years). Chronological age is predicted, therefore, equally well, if not, better, with this robust, objective, and fully quantitative method than with prevailing phase-aging systems. This method contributes to forensic casework by responding to medico-legal expectations for evidence standards.

  3. Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, J.L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

    1997-01-01

    We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

  4. Model-Based Estimation of Knee Stiffness

    PubMed Central

    Pfeifer, Serge; Vallery, Heike; Hardegger, Michael; Riener, Robert; Perreault, Eric J.

    2013-01-01

    During natural locomotion, the stiffness of the human knee is modulated continuously and subconsciously according to the demands of activity and terrain. Given modern actuator technology, powered transfemoral prostheses could theoretically provide a similar degree of sophistication and function. However, experimentally quantifying knee stiffness modulation during natural gait is challenging. Alternatively, joint stiffness could be estimated in a less disruptive manner using electromyography (EMG) combined with kinetic and kinematic measurements to estimate muscle force, together with models that relate muscle force to stiffness. Here we present the first step in that process, where we develop such an approach and evaluate it in isometric conditions, where experimental measurements are more feasible. Our EMG-guided modeling approach allows us to consider conditions with antagonistic muscle activation, a phenomenon commonly observed in physiological gait. Our validation shows that model-based estimates of knee joint stiffness coincide well with experimental data obtained using conventional perturbation techniques. We conclude that knee stiffness can be accurately estimated in isometric conditions without applying perturbations, which presents an important step towards our ultimate goal of quantifying knee stiffness during gait. PMID:22801482

  5. An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

    2011-01-01

    Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

  6. Accuracy of dental age estimation in Venezuelan children: comparison of Demirjian and Willems methods.

    PubMed

    Medina, Aída C; Blanco, Lucila

    2014-01-01

    Dental age is a somatic maturity indicator with importance in clinical and forensic dentistry. The purpose of this study is to compare the applicability of the Demirjian and Willems methods for dental age estimation in a group of Venezuelan children. Panoramic radiographs of 238 Venezuelan children aged 5-13 years were used to assess dental age using the methods described by Demirjian and Willems. Children with unclear panoramic radiographs, dental agenesis, and premature loss of primary teeth were excluded. Mean differences between dental age and chronological age by gender and age groups were estimated (ANOVA, Student tests p = 0.05). For the Demirjian method, the mean difference between dental age and chronological age was 0.62 +/- 0.93 years, statistically significant. The mean overestimation was lower for females than for males (females 0.56 +/- 0.96 years, males 0.67 +/- 0.93 years). For the Willems method, the mean difference between dental age and chronological age was 0.15 +/- 0.97 years, not statistically significant. Accuracy was significantly different between genders, performing best for females (females 0.01 +/- 0.96 years, males 0.29 +/- 0.96 years). The Willems method for age estimation was found to be more accurate than the Demirjian method in this sample of Venezuelan children.

  7. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691

  8. Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    SciTech Connect

    Pittenger, D.B.

    1992-02-01

    The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.

  9. Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

    PubMed

    López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

    2015-03-01

    Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

  10. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    SciTech Connect

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to /sup 131/I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum 24 hours after administration (the /sup 131/I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K(exp(-..mu../sub 1/t) - exp(-..mu../sub 2/t)) (..mu..Ci), where ..mu../sub 1/ = lambda/sub r/ + lambda/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), lambda/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and lambda/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of lambda/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptake at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/..mu..Ci-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. The model could prove useful in the dosimetry of very short-lived radioiodines. Tables of age- and sex-dependent coefficients are provided to enable readers to make their own calculations. 12 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  11. Estimation of gestational age, using neonatal anthropometry: a cross-sectional study in India.

    PubMed

    Thawani, Rajat; Dewan, Pooja; Faridi, M M A; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

    2013-12-01

    Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R = 0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R = 0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks) = 5.437 x W-0.781 x W(2) + 2.815 x HC-0.041 x HC(2) + 0.285 x MUAC-22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R = 0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46

  12. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results.

  13. Egg flotation estimates nest age for Pacific and Red-throated Loons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rizzolo, Daniel; Schmutz, Joel A.

    2007-01-01

    We used Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica) and Red-throated Loon (G. stellata) nests with known ages to gauge the efficacy of egg flotation for determining nest age in coastal Alaska. Egg flotation accurately estimated nest age for both species; the mean ± 1SD difference between known age and age determined with egg flotation was - 0.05 ± 2.00 d and -0.02 ± 1.63 d for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, respectively. Day of nest initiation did not influence the relationship between known nest age and nest age estimated with egg flotation, indicating incubation period was not shortened in nests initiated later in the season. Additionally, we found no difference in the ability of egg flotation to estimate nest age between two widely dispersed study sites for Pacific Loons, and only a small difference between two of three widely dispersed study sites for Red-throated Loons. Thus, our described relationships between egg flotation categories and nest age should be broadly applicable for these holarctic species. We conclude that for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, egg flotation is a useful technique for determining nest age in the field to better monitor nest fate, and to quantify nest age effects on nest daily survival rate.

  14. Vortex-Based Aero- and Hydrodynamic Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemati, Maziar Sam

    Flow control strategies often require knowledge of unmeasurable quantities, thus presenting a need to reconstruct flow states from measurable ones. In this thesis, the modeling, simulation, and estimator design aspects of flow reconstruction are considered. First, a vortex-based aero- and hydrodynamic estimation paradigm is developed to design a wake sensing algorithm for aircraft formation flight missions. The method assimilates wing distributed pressure measurements with a vortex-based wake model to better predict the state of the flow. The study compares Kalman-type algorithms with particle filtering algorithms, demonstrating that the vortex nonlinearities require particle filters to yield adequate performance. Furthermore, the observability structure of the wake is shown to have a negative impact on filter performance regardless of the algorithm applied. It is demonstrated that relative motions can alleviate the filter divergence issues associated with this observability structure. In addition to estimator development, the dissertation addresses the need for an efficient unsteady multi-body aerodynamics testbed for estimator and controller validation studies. A pure vortex particle implementation of a vortex panel-particle method is developed to satisfy this need. The numerical method is demonstrated on the impulsive startup of a flat plate as well as the impulsive startup of a multi-wing formation. It is clear, from these validation studies, that the method is able to accommodate the unsteady wake effects that arise in formation flight missions. Lastly, successful vortex-based estimation is highly dependent on the reliability of the low-order vortex model used in representing the flow of interest. The present treatise establishes a systematic framework for vortex model improvement, grounded in optimal control theory and the calculus of variations. By minimizing model predicted errors with respect to empirical data, the shortcomings of the baseline vortex model

  15. First rib metamorphosis: its possible utility for human age-at-death estimation.

    PubMed

    Kunos, C A; Simpson, S W; Russell, K F; Hershkovitz, I

    1999-11-01

    Human first ribs demonstrate predictable, sequential changes in shape, size, and texture with increasing age, and thus, can be used as an indicator of age at death. Metamorphosis of the first rib's head, tubercle, and costal face was documented in a cross-sectional sample of preadult and adult first ribs of known age at death from the Hamann-Todd skeletal collection (Cleveland Museum of Natural History, Cleveland, Ohio). Blind tests of the usefulness of the first rib as an age indicator were conducted, including tabulation of intraobserver and interobserver inaccuracies and biases. First rib age estimates show inaccuracies and biases by decade comparable to those generated by other aging techniques. Indeed, the first rib method is useful as an isolated age indicator. When used in conjunction with other age indicators, the first rib improves the quality of summary age assessments.

  16. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw and Caswell, 1996).

  17. Model-based estimation of individual fitness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

    2002-01-01

    Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).

  18. Statistical methods to adjust for date and age misreporting to improve estimates of vital rates in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Pullum, T W

    1991-02-01

    Misreporting of dates and ages poses serious difficulties for the estimation of the age distribution and birth and death rates in many developing countries. The pervasiveness of these problems is illustrated with data from a well-designed on-going survey in Pakistan, the Pakistan Demographic Survey. Methods for reconciling discrepancies, based on the assumptions of constant misreporting and survivorship patterns, are presented. The reasoning behind these methods could be applied much more generally. Research into the cultural interpretations of age and dates, and the nature of possible biases, is called for.

  19. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study

    PubMed Central

    Priyadharshini, K. Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B.; Mohanbabu, V.; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A–H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. Materials and Methods: A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P < 0.05 was considered as the level of significance. Results: The results showed that the mean age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P < 0.05). Conclusion: There are differences indicating that maxillary and mandibular third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization. PMID:25984465

  20. Use of soil catena field data for estimating relative ages of moraines

    SciTech Connect

    Birkeland, P.W.; Berry, M.E. ); Swanson, D.K. )

    1991-03-01

    Soils at the crests of moraines are commonly used to estimate the relative ages of moraines. However, for various pedologic and geomorphic reasons, soil development at crest sites may not truly reflect the time since moraine formation; for example, some crest soils on moraines of greatly different age are similar in morphology and development. Soil catena data for soils at several sites aligned downslope from the crest can greatly improve on the usefulness of soil data for estimating moraine ages. For this purpose, the authors use the weighted mean catena profile development index, which condenses field data for all of the soils in each catena into a single value.

  1. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Coleman, Phil R

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.

  2. Age Estimation in Living Egyptians Using Signal Joint T-cell Receptor Excision Circle Rearrangement.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Samah F; Gaballah, Iman F; Rashed, Laila A

    2016-07-01

    Age estimation is one of the challenges in forensic sciences. There are many techniques to estimate the age. Molecular biology approach is one of these techniques. Signal joint T-cell receptor excision circles gene (sjTRECs), is one of this approach. We aimed to use sjTRECs as a suitable marker for age estimation among Egyptian population. TaqMan qPCR approach was used to quantify sjTREC levels in blood samples obtained from 153 healthy Egyptian individuals ranging from a few weeks to 70 years. Our results showed a significant negative correlation between sjTREC levels and age with p ≤ 0.05. Moreover, the individual's age can be determined through this formula Age = -30.671+ (-5.998Y) (Y is dCtTBP - sjTREC) with standard error ±7.35 years. Within the forensic context, sjTREC' levels can be used to estimate the Egyptian individual's age accurately.

  3. Clonal diversity and estimation of relative clone age: application to agrobiodiversity of yam (Dioscorea rotundata)

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Clonal propagation is a particular reproductive system found in both the plant and animal kingdoms, from human parasites to clonally propagated crops. Clonal diversity provides information about plant and animal evolutionary history, i.e. how clones spread, or the age of a particular clone. In plants, this could provide valuable information about agrobiodiversity dynamics and more broadly about the evolutionary history of a particular crop. We studied the evolutionary history of yam, Dioscorea rotundata. In Africa, Yam is cultivated by tuber clonal propagation. Results We used 12 microsatellite markers to identify intra-clonal diversity in yam varieties. We then used this diversity to assess the relative ages of clones. Using simulations, we assessed how Approximate Bayesian Computation could use clonal diversity to estimate the age of a clone depending on the size of the sample, the number of independent samples and the number of markers. We then applied this approach to our particular dataset and showed that the relative ages of varieties could be estimated, and that each variety could be ranked by age. Conclusions We give a first estimation of clone age in an approximate Bayesian framework. However the precise estimation of clone age depends on the precision of the mutation rate. We provide useful information on agrobiodiversity dynamics and suggest recurrent creation of varietal diversity in a clonally propagated crop. PMID:24219837

  4. The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Merritt, Catherine E

    2015-01-01

    Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The İşcan et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey-Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann-Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log-age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides.

  5. ESTIMATES OF WATER INGESTION FOR WOMEN IN PREGNANT, LACTATING AND NON-PREGNANT AND NON-LACTATING CHILD BEARING AGE GROUPS BASED ON USDA'S 1994-96, 1998 CONTINUING SURVEY OF FOOD INTAKE BY INDIVIDUALS (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Women in the child bearing age of 15 to 44 years and, in particular, pregnant and lactating women in this age cohort are considered a sensitive subpopulation when assessing risk from ingestion of contaminated water because ingested contaminants may pose a risk not only to the mot...

  6. Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  7. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    PubMed

    Monson, Daniel H; Udevitz, Mark S; Jay, Chadwick V

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2) (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  8. Estimating Age Ratios and Size of Pacific Walrus Herds on Coastal Haulouts using Video Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  9. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction. PMID:26828757

  10. Particle Pollution Estimation Based on Image Analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chenbin; Tsow, Francis; Zou, Yi; Tao, Nongjian

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to fine particles can cause various diseases, and an easily accessible method to monitor the particles can help raise public awareness and reduce harmful exposures. Here we report a method to estimate PM air pollution based on analysis of a large number of outdoor images available for Beijing, Shanghai (China) and Phoenix (US). Six image features were extracted from the images, which were used, together with other relevant data, such as the position of the sun, date, time, geographic information and weather conditions, to predict PM2.5 index. The results demonstrate that the image analysis method provides good prediction of PM2.5 indexes, and different features have different significance levels in the prediction.

  11. Are the new automated methods for bone age estimation advantageous over the manual approaches?

    PubMed

    De Sanctis, Vincenzo; Soliman, Ashraf T; Di Maio, Salvatore; Bedair, Said

    2014-12-01

    Bone Age Assessment (BAA) is performed worldwide for the evaluation of endocrine, genetic and chronic diseases, to monitor response to medical therapy and to determine the growth potential of children and adolescents. It is also used for consultation in planning orthopedic procedures, for determination of chronological age for adopted children, youth sports participation and in forensic settings. The main clinical methods for skeletal bone age estimation are the Greulich and Pyle (GP) and the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW) methods. Seventy six per cent (76%) of radiologists or pediatricians usually use the method of GP, 20% that of TW and 4% other methods. The advantages of using the TW method, as opposed to the GP method, are that it overcomes the subjectivity problem and results are more reproducible. However, it is complex and time consuming; for this reason its usage is just about 20% on a world-wide scale. Moreover, there are some evidences that bone age assignments by different physicians can differ significantly. Computerized and Quantitative Ultrasound Technologies (QUS) for assessing skeletal maturity have been developed with the aim of reducing many of the inconsistencies associated with radiographic investigations. In spite of the fact that the volume of automated methods for BAA has increased, the majotity of them are still in an early phase of development. QUS is comparable to the GP based method, but there is not enough established data yet for the healthy population. The Authors wish to stimulate the attention on the accuracy, reliability and consistency of BAA and to initiate a debate on manual versus automated approaches to enhance our assessment for skeletal matutation in children and adolescents.

  12. Forensic age estimation through evaluation of the apophyseal ossification of the iliac crest in Western Chinese.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-ai; Chen, Xiao-gang; Li, Yuan; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2015-07-01

    The criminal age estimation procedures have gained greatest significance to date, a reliable age diagnostics may depend on data of skeletal maturation from different socioeconomic status. In order to establish the iliac crest apophysis as a possible criterion for forensic age estimation in a different socioeconomic status, and to examine the pace of ossification for the iliac crest apophysis in Western Chinese, one thousand seven hundreds and seventy-seven conventional pelvic radiographs relating to West China Han group routinely taken between January 2010 and June 2012 have been sighted. The data was analysed with separation of the sexes. The results indicated that stage 2a was last observed in females at the age of 17.00 and in males at the age of 18.01, stage 3a was first achieved in females at the age of 14.46 and in males at the age of 15.31, stage 4 was observed between 17.95 and 25.98 years for male and between 18.36 and 25.95 years for female. By comparison with previous studies, our research indicated that Western Chinese presents a delaying development for the iliac crest apophysis. Furthermore, the present study with eight stages of ossification for the iliac crest offers a valuable alternative method of estimation of 18 years of age for Western Chinese.

  13. Accurate estimates of age at maturity from the growth trajectories of fishes and other ectotherms.

    PubMed

    Honsey, Andrew E; Staples, David F; Venturelli, Paul A

    2017-01-01

    Age at maturity (AAM) is a key life history trait that provides insight into ecology, evolution, and population dynamics. However, maturity data can be costly to collect or may not be available. Life history theory suggests that growth is biphasic for many organisms, with a change-point in growth occurring at maturity. If so, then it should be possible to use a biphasic growth model to estimate AAM from growth data. To test this prediction, we used the Lester biphasic growth model in a likelihood profiling framework to estimate AAM from length at age data. We fit our model to simulated growth trajectories to determine minimum data requirements (in terms of sample size, precision in length at age, and the cost to somatic growth of maturity) for accurate AAM estimates. We then applied our method to a large walleye Sander vitreus data set and show that our AAM estimates are in close agreement with conventional estimates when our model fits well. Finally, we highlight the potential of our method by applying it to length at age data for a variety of ectotherms. Our method shows promise as a tool for estimating AAM and other life history traits from contemporary and historical samples.

  14. Precision of hard structures used to estimate age of mountain Whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) is a widely distributed salmonid in western North America that has decreased in abundance over portions of its distribution due to anthropogenic disturbances. In this investigation, we examined precision of age estimates derived from scales, pectoral fin rays, and sagittal otoliths from 167 mountain whitefish. Otoliths and pectoral fin rays were mounted in epoxy and cross-sectioned before examination. Scales were pressed onto acetate slides and resulting impressions were examined. Between-reader precision (i.e., between 2 readers), between-reader variability, and reader confidence ratings were compared among hard structures. Coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and percentage of exact agreement (PA-0) was highest for scales (CV = 5.9; PA-0 = 70%) compared to pectoral fin rays (CV =11.0; PA-0 = 58%) and otoliths (CV = 12.3; PA-0 = 55%). Median confidence ratings were significantly different (P ≤ 0.05) among all structures, with scales having the highest median confidence. Reader confidence decreased with fish age for scales and pectoral fin rays, but reader confidence increased with fish age for otoliths. In general, age estimates were more precise and reader confidence was higher for scales compared to pectoral fin rays and otoliths. This research will help fisheries biologists in selecting the most appropriate hard structure to use for future age and growth studies on mountain whitefish. In turn, selection of the most precise hard structure will lead to better estimates of dynamic rate functions.

  15. Forensic dental age estimation by measuring root dentin translucency area using a new digital technique.

    PubMed

    Acharya, Ashith B

    2014-05-01

    Dentin translucency measurement is an easy yet relatively accurate approach to postmortem age estimation. Translucency area represents a two-dimensional change and may reflect age variations better than length. Manually measuring area is challenging and this paper proposes a new digital method using commercially available computer hardware and software. Area and length were measured on 100 tooth sections (age range, 19-82 years) of 250 μm thickness. Regression analysis revealed lower standard error of estimate and higher correlation with age for length than for area (R = 0.62 vs. 0.60). However, test of regression formulae on a control sample (n = 33, 21-85 years) showed smaller mean absolute difference (8.3 vs. 8.8 years) and greater frequency of smaller errors (73% vs. 67% age estimates ≤ ± 10 years) for area than for length. These suggest that digital area measurements of root translucency may be used as an alternative to length in forensic age estimation.

  16. Computed tomography evaluation of the iliac crest apophysis: age estimation in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Inci, Ercan; Erdil, Irem; Hocaoglu, Elif; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Kazimoglu, Cemal; Reisoglu, Ali; Can, Ismail Ozgur

    2016-07-01

    Determination of the ossification properties of the iliac apophysis is important not only in the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery but also in age estimation studies for forensic purposes. The literature includes both anthropological and radiological (conventional radiography, ultrasonography, and magnetic resonance imaging modalities) investigations of the different staging systems used for these purposes. In this study, we assessed the utility of computed tomography (CT) of the iliac crest apophysis in estimating forensic age. CT scans of the iliac crest apophysis of 380 patients (187 females, 193 males, and 10-29 years of age) were evaluated according to the four-stage system. Further subclassification did not give data properly due to the reference length measurement of the iliac wing with CT. Thus, in our series, stage 2 was first seen in 12 years of age and stage 3 in those 14 years of age in both sexes and on both sides of the pelvis. Stage 4 was first seen in 17 years of both sexes but only on the right side; on the left side, it appeared in females 18 years of age and in males 17 years of age. Present data was found consistent with previous pelvic radiographic findings. First seen ages for stage 2 and 3 are 12 and 14 years respectively which presented valuable information for legally important age thresholds. However, disadvantages of CT, including high-dose radiation exposure to gonads, the difficulty of evaluating the iliac crest, and the age boundary of 17 years, could make this method infeasible, as compared with hand wrist and pelvic radiographic methods. CT of the iliac crest has probably a greater utility where preexisting CT scans of the pelvic region are available, and it may be considered as a supportive method for age-estimation purposes.

  17. Estimation of genetic parameters for longevity considering the cow's age at last calving.

    PubMed

    Caetano, Sabrina L; Rosa, Guilherme J M; Savegnago, Rodrigo P; Ramos, Salvador B; Bernardes, Priscila A; Bezerra, Luiz A F; Lôbo, Raysildo B; de Paz, Claudia C P; Munari, Danísio Prado

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate heritability and predict breeding values for longevity among cows in herds of Nellore breed, considering the trait cow's age at last calving (ALC), by means of survival analysis methodology. The records of 11,791 animals from 22 farms were used. The variable ALC has been used by a criterion that made it possible to include cows not only at their first calving but also at their ninth calving. The criterion used was the difference between the date of each cow's last calving and the date of the last calving on each farm. If this difference was greater than 36 months, the cow was considered to have failed and uncensored. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The survival model used for the analyses was the proportional hazards model, and the base risk was given by a Weibull distribution. The heritability estimate obtained was equal to 0.25. It was found that the ALC variable had the capacity to respond to selection for the purpose of increasing the longevity of the cows in the herds.

  18. Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis

    PubMed Central

    Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B.; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. Aims: The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Settings and Design: Sixty subjects aged 20–85 years were included in the study. Materials and Methods: For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections—cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root—were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. Statistical Analysis Used: All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Results and Conclusions: Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation (r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level. PMID:28123269

  19. Estimation of age of Dali-Ganis rifting and associated volcanic activity, Venus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilevsky, A. T.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of age for the Dali and Ganis Chasma rift zones and their associated volcanism based on photogeologic analysis of stratigraphic relations of rift-associated features with impact craters which have associated features indicative of their age. The features are radar-dark and parabolic, and they are believed to be mantles of debris derived from fallout of the craters' ejecta. They are thought to be among the youngest features on the Venusian surface, so their 'parent' craters must also be very young, evidently among the youngest 10 percent of Venus' crater population. Dali Chasma and Ganis Chasma are a part of a system of rift zones contained within eastern Aphrodite and Atla Regio which is a significant component of Venus tectonics. The rifts of this system are fracture belts which dissect typical Venusian plains with rare islands of tessera terrain. The rift zone system consists of several segments following each other (Diane, Dali, Ganis) and forming the major rift zone line, about 10,000 km long, which has junctions with several other rift zones, including Parga Chasma Rift. The junctions are usually locations of rift-associated volcanism in the form of volcanic edifices (Maat and Ozza Montes) or plain-forming flows flooding some areas within the rift zones and the adjacent plains.

  20. Estimation of fetal age from dimensions of atlas and axis ossification centers.

    PubMed

    Castellana, C; Kósa, F

    2001-03-01

    The atlas and axis ossification centers of 106 human fetal and neonate skeletons were measured. The skeletons belong to the collection in the Department of Forensic Medicine of the Albert Szent-Györgyi Medical University, Szeged, Hungary. The age of the skeletons ranged from 4 to 10 lunar months. Nine linear measurements on the atlas, seven on the axis neural arches ossification centers and three on each one of the axis centra ossification centers were taken. We did simple and multiple linear regression analysis to estimate the age of fetuses. The results show that it is possible to use regression equations to estimate the fetal body length and age from atlas and axis ossification centers measurements during the whole period of development studied. The study of size and shape of the ossification centers using factorial analysis (principal component analysis) shows that the shape of the dens of the axis might be useful to estimate fetal viability.

  1. Semi-parametric estimation of age-time specific infection incidence from serial prevalence data.

    PubMed

    Nagelkerke, N; Heisterkamp, S; Borgdorff, M; Broekmans, J; Van Houwelingen, H

    1999-02-15

    Many infections cause lasting detectable immune responses, whose prevalence can be estimated from cross-sectional surveys. However, such surveys do not provide direct information on the incidence of infection. We address the issue of estimating age and time specific incidence from a series of prevalence surveys under the assumption that incidence changes exponentially with time, but make no assumption about the age specific incidence. We show that these assumptions lead to a proportional hazards model and estimate its parameters using semi-parametric maximum likelihood methods. The method is applied to tuberculin surveys in The Netherlands to explore age dependence of the risk of tuberculous infection in the presence of a strong secular decline in this risk.

  2. Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) Estimation Using Wavelet Based Denoising

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-03-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS TIME DIFFERENCE OF ARRIVAL (TDOA) ESTIMATION USING WAVELET BASED DENOISING by Unal Aktas...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE TIME DIFFERENCE OF ARRIVAL (TDOA) ESTIMATION USING WAVELET BASED DENOISING 6. AUTHOR(S) Unal Aktas 7...difference of arrival (TDOA) method. The wavelet transform is used to increase the accuracy of TDOA estimation. Several denoising techniques based on

  3. Strategy for the estimation of chronological age using the aspartic acid racemization method with special reference to coefficient of correlation between D/L ratios and ages.

    PubMed

    Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu

    2005-09-01

    The estimation of chronological age has been performed by various methods in forensic science. Among these, racemization methods, which are based on the age-dependent non-enzymatic changes of L-form amino acids to D-form mainly using aspartic acid, are one of the most reliable and accurate methods to date. Separation of enantiomers is generally performed by gas chromatography or high performance liquid chromatography. Various tissues with low metabolic rates have been applied for this purpose. In addition, single proteins purified from these target tissues are also applicable. In this brief review we describe this method in detail, noting points of caution, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the different target tissues. In addition, special attention is given to the correlation rates obtained between chronological age and enantiomer ratios. Currently, based on accuracy of estimated age, simplicity of the method, time required, and reproducibility, tooth dentin is considered one of the best target tissues. Alternatively, analysis of osteocalcin and elastin have also provided accurate and reproducible results.

  4. Select aging biomarkers based on telomere length and chronological age to build a biological age equation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei-Guang; Zhu, Shu-Ying; Bai, Xiao-Juan; Zhao, De-Long; Jian, Shi-Min; Li, Juan; Li, Zuo-Xiang; Fu, Bo; Cai, Guang-Yan; Sun, Xue-Feng; Chen, Xiang-Mei

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to build a biological age (BA) equation combining telomere length with chronological age (CA) and associated aging biomarkers. In total, 139 healthy volunteers were recruited from a Chinese Han cohort in Beijing. A genetic index, renal function indices, cardiovascular function indices, brain function indices, and oxidative stress and inflammation indices (C-reactive protein [CRP]) were measured and analyzed. A BA equation was proposed based on selected parameters, with terminal telomere restriction fragment (TRF) and CA as the two principal components. The selected aging markers included mitral annulus peak E anterior wall (MVEA), intima-media thickness (IMT), cystatin C (CYSC), D-dimer (DD), and digital symbol test (DST). The BA equation was: BA = −2.281TRF + 26.321CYSC + 0.025DD − 104.419MVEA + 34.863IMT − 0.265DST + 0.305CA + 26.346. To conclude, telomere length and CA as double benchmarks may be a new method to build a BA.

  5. Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

    2003-01-01

    Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

  6. Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

    PubMed

    Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

    2015-04-01

    Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures.

  7. Using groundwater age distributions to estimate the effective parameters of Fickian and non-Fickian models of solute transport

    PubMed Central

    Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater age distributions are used to estimate the parameters of Fickian, and non-Fickian, effective models of solute transport. Based on the similarities between the transport and age equations, we develop a deconvolution based approach that describes transport between two monitoring wells. We show that the proposed method gives exact estimates of the travel time distribution between two wells when the domain is stationary and that the method still provides useful information on transport when the domain is non-stationary. The method is demonstrated using idealized uniform and layered 2-D aquifers. Homogeneous transport is determined exactly and non-Fickian transport in a layered aquifer was also approximated very well, even though this example problem is shown to be scale-dependent. This work introduces a method that addresses a significant limitation of tracer tests and non-Fickian transport modeling which is the difficulty in determining the effective parameters of the transport model. PMID:25821342

  8. Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.

    1988-01-01

    It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

  9. Testing marker-based estimates of heritability in the wild.

    PubMed

    Coltman, David W

    2005-07-01

    Marker-based estimates of heritability are an attractive alternative to pedigree-based methods for estimating quantitative genetic parameters in field studies where it is difficult or impossible to determine relationships and pedigrees. Here I test the ability of the marker-based method to estimate heritability of a suite of traits in a wild population of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using marker data from 32 microsatellite loci. I compared marker-based estimates with estimates obtained using a pedigree and the animal model. Marker-based estimates of heritability were imprecise and downwardly biased. The high degree of uncertainty in marker-based estimates suggests that the method may be sufficient to detect the presence of genetic variance for highly heritable traits, but not sufficiently reliable to estimate genetic parameters.

  10. The study on telomere length for age estimation in a Thai population.

    PubMed

    Srettabunjong, Supawon; Satitsri, Saravut; Thongnoppakhun, Wanna; Tirawanchai, Nednapis

    2014-06-01

    Age is one of the key parameters in establishing a physical characteristic profile of an individual. For biological evidence left in crime scenes such as blood, saliva, hair, etc, the evidence owner's age can be determined only by DNA extracted from these materials. Previous researches have found that there are certain DNA regions with specialized characteristic and function called telomere being able to predict age. The present study was to determine the correlation between telomere length and age as well as the effect of sex on the correlation and to create linear regression equation for age estimation in Thai population for forensic purposes. Blood samples obtained from unrelated healthy Thai fresh cadavers without anatomical organ abnormalities were used in this study. All cadaver subjects underwent the postmortem examination in jurisdiction of the Department of Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, and Institute of Forensic Medicine, Police General Hospital. Fifty blood samples from both sexes of all ages divided into 6 groups for equal age distribution (0-11, 12-23, 24-35, 36-47, 48-59, and 60 years old and older) were collected for a total of 100 samples. The extracted genomic DNA samples were then subjected to telomere length estimation by terminal restriction fragment (TRF) assay. The results showed that the mean TRF length was inversely correlated with age (r = -0.625), and sex did not have a statistically significant influence on the association between age and mean TRF length (P > 0.05). The obtained linear regression equation was y = 113.538 ± 9.604 - 0.012 × (R = 0.391; P < 0.001). However, the correlation was too low to be used for age estimation with high certainty and a possible reason for this in part would be the postmortem DNA degradation at some level, even using fresh cadaver blood, and other biological factors such as ethnicity and DNA sources. Roughly, those individuals who had a mean TRF length

  11. Histological estimation of age at death from the compact bone of burned and unburned human ribs.

    PubMed

    Absolonova, Karolina; Veleminsky, Petr; Dobisikova, Miluse; Beran, Michal; Zocova, Jarmila

    2013-01-01

    This study describes the estimation of age at death from the compact bone of burned and unburned human ribs. Bone samples came from individuals of known age, sex, and cause of death. Each bone was divided into four sections; three sections were burned at 700, 800, and 1000°C. Undecalcified, unstained ground cross sections were photographed, and 28 variables were analyzed in the bones using SigmaScan Pro 5. Age-related as well as heat-induced microstructural changes were found. These changes were often very similar and made estimating the age at death difficult in the burned bones. Differences between the sexes were found in some variables, caused by both aging and also by the different behavior of some variables during burning. Regression equations were developed to estimate age at death for unburned bones (r² = 0.579 and 0.707), bones burned at 700°C (r² = 0.453 and 0.501), and 800°C (r² = 0.334 and 0.340).

  12. Age-at-maturity estimates for Atlantic coast female striped bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berlinsky, David L.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; O'Brien, John F.; Specker, Jennifer L.

    1995-01-01

    This study was undertaken to estimate the percentage of mature female striped bass Morone saxatilis present in each age-class during annual coastal feeding migration. Migratory striped bass (N = 302) were sampled in coastal Rhode Island waters during spring (May-June) and fall (September-November) from 1985 to 1987. Stocks were identified by analysis of morphometric characters and isoelectric focusing of eye-lens proteins. Histological sections of ovarian tissue were used to categorize maturity state. Fish were considered mature if a class of oocytes measuring at least 150 μm and containing cytoplasmic inclusions was found in the ovarian sections. All females whose age at next potential spawning was 7 and older were mature. Our empirical observations indicated that 12% of fish in age-class 4, 34% of fish in age-class 5, and 77% of fish in age-class 6 were mature. The estimate of the proportion of mature fish in age-class 5 differs significantly from that of Merriman (1941), who also examined coastal migrants. No significant differences were found in maturity estimates of fish from stocks of different origin.

  13. Age-surface temperature estimation model: When will oil palm plantation reach the same surface temperature as natural forest?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rushayati, S. B.; Hermawan, R.; Meilani, R.

    2017-01-01

    Oil palm plantation has often been accused as the cause of global warming. However, along with its growth, it would be able to decrease surface temperature. The question is ‘when will the plantation be able to reach the same surface temperature as natural forest’. This research aimed to estimate the age of oil palm plantation that create similar surface temperature to those in natural forest (land cover before the opening and planting of oil palm). The method used in this research was spatial analysis of land cover and surface temperature distribution. Based on the spatial analysis of surface temperature, five points was randomly taken from each planting age (age 1 15 years). Linear regression was then employed in the analysis. The linear regression formula between surface temperature and age of oil palm plantation was Y = 26.002 – 0.1237X. Surface temperature will decrease as much as 0.1237 ° C with one year age growth oil palm. Surface temperature that was similar to the initial temperature, when the land cover was natural forest (23.04 °C), was estimated to occur when the oil palm plantation reach the age 24 year.

  14. Random regression models on Legendre polynomials to estimate genetic parameters for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

    PubMed

    Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G; Alencar, M M

    2010-08-01

    The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions for direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects, and subsequently, to derive relevant genetic parameters for growth traits in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 weight records on 2435 females from birth to adult age. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups (year and month of birth and at weighing) and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were allowed to vary and were modelled by a step function with 1, 4 or 11 classes based on animal's age. The model fitting four classes of residual variances was the best. A total of 12 random regression models from second to seventh order were used to model direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The model with direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects fitted by quadric, cubic, quintic and linear Legendre polynomials, respectively, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Estimates of direct and maternal heritability obtained by multi-trait (seven traits) and random regression models were very similar. Selection for higher weight at any age, especially after weaning, will produce an increase in mature cow weight. The possibility to modify the growth curve in Canchim cattle to obtain animals with rapid growth at early ages and moderate to low mature cow weight is limited.

  15. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  16. Improving estimates of surface water radiocarbon reservoir ages in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenop, Rosanna; Burke, Andrea; Rae, James; Austin, William; Reimer, Paula; Blaauw, Maarten; Crocker, Anya; Chalk, Thomas; Barker, Stephen; Knutz, Paul; Hall, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Radiocarbon measurements from foraminifera in marine sediment cores are widely used to constrain age models and the timing of paleoceanographic events, as well as past changes in ocean circulation and carbon cycling. However, the use of radiocarbon for both dating and palaeoceanographic applications is limited in sediment cores by a lack of knowledge about the surface ocean radiocarbon reservoir age and how it varies in both space and time. Typically, to convert a planktic radiocarbon age into a calendar age, an assumed constant reservoir age is applied. However, there is mounting evidence to suggest that this assumption of constant reservoir age through time is an oversimplification, particularly for the high latitude oceans during the cold climates of the last glacial and deglacial periods. Here we present new high-resolution radiocarbon records together with tephra tie points and 230-thorium (230Th) constrained sedimentation rates to improve estimates of radiocarbon reservoir age in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. In addition we will explore the impact of the new reservoir ages for both the age models of the cores studied, as well as the palaeoceanographic implications of these reservoir age changes during intervals of rapid climate change over the past 40,000 years.

  17. Contour-based object orientation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpatov, Boris; Babayan, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    Real-time object orientation estimation is an actual problem of computer vision nowadays. In this paper we propose an approach to estimate an orientation of objects lacking axial symmetry. Proposed algorithm is intended to estimate orientation of a specific known 3D object, so 3D model is required for learning. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm consists of 2 stages: learning and estimation. Learning stage is devoted to the exploring of studied object. Using 3D model we can gather set of training images by capturing 3D model from viewpoints evenly distributed on a sphere. Sphere points distribution is made by the geosphere principle. It minimizes the training image set. Gathered training image set is used for calculating descriptors, which will be used in the estimation stage of the algorithm. The estimation stage is focusing on matching process between an observed image descriptor and the training image descriptors. The experimental research was performed using a set of images of Airbus A380. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm showed good accuracy (mean error value less than 6°) in all case studies. The real-time performance of the algorithm was also demonstrated.

  18. MINACE-filter-based facial pose estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casasent, David P.; Patnaik, Rohit

    2005-03-01

    A facial pose estimation system is presented that functions with illumination variations present. Pose estimation is a useful first stage in a face recognition system. A separate minimum noise and correlation energy (MINACE) filter is synthesized for each pose. To select the MINACE parameter c for the filter for a pose, a training set of illumination differences of several faces at that pose, and a validation set of other poses (illumination differences of several faces at a few other poses) is used in the automated filter-synthesis step. However, the filter for each pose is a combination of faces at only that pose. The pose estimation system is evaluated using images from the CMU Pose, Illumination and Expression (PIE) database. The classification performance (PC) scores are presented for several pose estimation tests. The pose estimate will be used for a subsequent image transformation of a test face to a reference pose for face identification.

  19. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60-75: impact of age, education, employment, physical exercise, alcohol, and video gaming.

    PubMed

    Wilms, Inge L; Nielsen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Visual perception serves as the basis for much of the higher level cognitive processing as well as human activity in general. Here we present normative estimates for the following components of visual perception: the visual perceptual threshold, the visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity and the visual perceptual encoding/decoding speed (processing speed) of VSTM based on an assessment of 91 healthy subjects aged 60-75. The estimates were modeled from input from a whole-report assessment based on a theory of visual attention. In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data, and multiple regression analyses between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and lifestyle variables. The regression statistics suggest that education level, video gaming activity, and employment status may significantly impact the encoding/decoding speed of VTSM but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual perceptual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular.

  20. A Test of the Passalacqua Age at Death Estimation Method Using the Sacrum.

    PubMed

    Colarusso, Tara

    2016-01-01

    A test of the accuracy of the Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) sacrum method in a forensic context was performed on a sample of 153 individuals from the J.C.B. Grant Skeletal Collection. The Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) method assesses seven traits of the sacrum using a 7-digit coding system. An accuracy of 97.3% was achieved using the Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) method to estimate adult skeletal age. On average each age estimate differed by 12.87 years from the known age. The method underestimated the age of individuals by an average of 4.3 years. An intra-observer error of 6.6% suggests that the method can be performed with precision. Correlation and regression analysis found that the sacral traits used in the Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) method did not have a strong relationship with age or an ability to strongly predict age. Overall, the method was not practical for use in a forensic context due to the broad age ranges, despite the high accuracy and low intra-observer error.

  1. Diagnostic and Prognostic Tools for Residual Life Estimation in Aging Nuclear Power Plant Components

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Henager, Charles H.; Dixit, Mukul

    2011-06-23

    A central issue in life extension for the current fleet of light water nuclear power reactors (LWR) is the early detection and monitoring of significant materials degradation. To meet this need, nondestructive methods that are suitable for continuous monitoring over extended time periods (months to years) are needed. A related issue is the ability to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of components and systems based on condition assessment or degradation information. Monitoring for early detection of materials degradation requires novel sensors and enhanced data integration techniques. A range of acoustic and electromagnetic measurement methods may be suitable, including acoustic microscopy, eddy current and magnetic Barkhausen emission. Prognostic methods that predict rate of degradation and remaining life based on phenomena that can be described by linear elastic fracture mechanics have been reported by several researchers. However, the challenge of predicting remaining life starting from earlier phases of degradation is largely unsolved. This paper discusses an assessment of selected diagnostic techniques, and the application of Bayesian prognostic algorithms to detection of early degradation and rate of degradation/life prediction. Such measurement and modeling methods are expected to form the basis for a new range of advanced diagnostic and prognostic approaches for assessing and monitoring life extension of ageing light water reactors.

  2. Diagnostic and Prognostic Tools for Residual Life Estimation in Aging Nuclear Power Plant Components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramuhalli, P.; Bond, L. J.; Griffin, J.; Henager, C.; Dixit, M.

    2011-06-01

    A central issue in life extension for the current fleet of light water nuclear power reactors (LWR) is the early detection and monitoring of significant materials degradation. To meet this need, nondestructive methods that are suitable for continuous monitoring over extended time periods (months to years) are needed. A related issue is the ability to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of components and systems based on condition assessment or degradation information. Monitoring for early detection of materials degradation requires novel sensors and enhanced data integration techniques. A range of acoustic and electromagnetic measurement methods may be suitable, including acoustic microscopy, eddy current and magnetic Barkhausen emission. Prognostic methods that predict rate of degradation and remaining life based on phenomena that can be described by linear elastic fracture mechanics have been reported by several researchers. However, the challenge of predicting remaining life starting from earlier phases of degradation is largely unsolved. This paper discusses an assessment of selected diagnostic techniques, and the application of Bayesian prognostic algorithms to detection of early degradation and rate of degradation/life prediction. Such measurement and modeling methods are expected to form the basis for a new range of advanced diagnostic and prognostic approaches for assessing and monitoring life extension of ageing light water reactors.

  3. Age-Related Changes in Children's Executive Functions and Strategy Selection: A Study in Computational Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lemaire, Patrick; Lecacheur, Mireille

    2011-01-01

    Third, fifth, and seventh graders selected the best strategy (rounding up or rounding down) for estimating answers to two-digit addition problems. Executive function measures were collected for each individual. Data showed that (a) children's skill at both strategy selection and execution improved with age and (b) increased efficiency in executive…

  4. Age at Marriage as a Mobility Contingency: Estimates for the Nye-Berardo Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Call, Vaughn R. A.; Otto, Luther B.

    1977-01-01

    This study provides estimates for the Nye and Berardo model of the effect of age at marriage on socioeconomic attainments. The major findings are that marital timing has neither a total effect on educational and occupational attainments, nor does it mediate the total effects of family socioeconomic statuses. (Author)

  5. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, Larry D.

    2009-10-01

    SummaryConvolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium ( 3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  6. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2009-01-01

    Convolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium (3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  7. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent.

    PubMed

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X-Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  8. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X -Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  9. Statistical Design and Estimation for the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project

    PubMed Central

    Eckman, Stephanie; Smith, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Objectives The paper discusses the sample design of the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP) and how the design affects how estimates should be calculated from the survey data. The NSHAP study allows researchers to study the links between sexuality and health in older adults. The goal of the design was to represent adults aged 57–85 years in six demographic domains. Methods The sample design begins with a national area probability sample of households, carried out jointly with the 2004 round of the Health and Retirement Study. Selection of respondents for NSHAP balanced age and gender subgroups and oversampled African Americans and Latinos. Data collection was carried out from July 2005 to March 2006. Results The survey obtained an overall response rate of 75.5%. Discussion The complex sample design requires that the selection probabilities and the field implementation be accounted for in estimating population parameters. The data set contains weights to compensate for differential probabilities of selection and response rates among demographic groups. Analysts should use weights in constructing estimates from the survey and account for the complex sample design in estimating standard errors for survey estimates. PMID:19567827

  10. Variation in osteon histomorphometrics and their impact on age-at-death estimation in older individuals.

    PubMed

    Goliath, Jesse R; Stewart, Marissa C; Stout, Sam D

    2016-05-01

    Histomorphometric studies have reported relations between osteon size and age; however, data focused on the shape of osteons is sparse. The purpose of this study was to determine how osteon circularity (On.Cr) varies with age in different skeletal elements. Regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between age and osteon shape and size. We hypothesized that age would be negatively related to osteon size (area, On.Ar) and positively related to osteon shape (On.Cr). On.Cr and On.Ar were determined for the ribs and femora of 27 cadaveric specimens with known age-at-death. As predicted, age was significantly related to osteon size and shape for both the femur and rib. With age, there was a decrease in size and an increase in circularity. No relationship between sex and On.Cr was detected. An age predicting model, including On.Cr, On.Ar and OPD, is proposed to improve our ability to estimate age-at-death, especially for older individuals.

  11. Computer-Based Cognitive Training in Aging

    PubMed Central

    Klimova, Blanka

    2016-01-01

    At present there is a rapid growth of aging population groups worldwide, which brings about serious economic and social problems. Thus, there is considerable effort to prolong the active life of these older people and keep them independent. The purpose of this mini review is to explore available clinical studies implementing computer-based cognitive training programs as intervention tools in the prevention and delay of cognitive decline in aging, with a special focus on their effectiveness. This was done by conducting a literature search in the databases Web of Science, Scopus, MEDLINE and Springer, and consequently by evaluating the findings of the relevant studies. The findings show that computerized cognitive training can lead to the improvement of cognitive functions such as working memory and reasoning skills in particular. However, this training should be performed over a longer time span since a short-term cognitive training mainly has an impact on short-term memory with temporary effects. In addition, the training must be intense to become effective. Furthermore, the results indicate that it is important to pay close attention to the methodological standards in future clinical studies. PMID:28066236

  12. Nutrient based estimation of acid-base balance in vegetarians and non-vegetarians.

    PubMed

    Deriemaeker, Peter; Aerenhouts, Dirk; Hebbelinck, Marcel; Clarys, Peter

    2010-03-01

    A first objective of the present study was to estimate the acid-base balance of the food intake in vegetarians and non-vegetarians. A second objective was to evaluate if additional input of specific food items on the existing potential renal acid load (PRAL) list was necessary for the comparison of the two dietary patterns. Thirty vegetarians between the age of 18 and 30 years were matched for sex, age and BMI with 30 non-vegetarians. Based on the 3-days food diaries the acid-base status of the food intake was estimated using the PRAL method. Mean PRAL values as estimated with the standard table yielded an alkaline load of -5.4 +/- 14.4 mEq/d in the vegetarians compared to an acid load of 10.3 +/- 14.4 mEq/d in the nonvegetarians (p<0.001). Mean PRAL values as estimated with the extended table yielded an alkaline load of -10.9 +/-19.7 mEq/d in the vegetarians compared to an acid load of 13.8 +/- 17.1 mEq/d for the non-vegetarians (p<0.001). The findings of this study indicate that vegetarian food intake produces more alkaline outcomes compared to non-vegetarian diets. The use of the standard PRAL table was sufficient for discrimination between the two diets.

  13. The use of computed tomography (CT) to estimate age in the 2009 Victorian Bushfire Victims: a case report.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Hill, Anthony J

    2011-02-25

    The development of new imaging technologies is beginning to have an impact upon medico-legal death investigation in an increasing number of jurisdictions. Computed tomography (CT) is an imaging modality which is able to provide information to investigators without the need for a physically invasive autopsy in certain circumstances. The use of post-mortem CT as an aid to the identification of the victims of the Black Saturday bushfires is discussed with particular reference to dental age estimation. A case report is presented which demonstrates the ability of this imaging modality to separate individuals based upon dental development. Whilst CT is not yet able to adequately discriminate between differing restoration types and shapes, and therefore cannot be used for dental identification in the classic sense, the ability of this imaging modality to assess dental and skeletal development for the purpose of age estimation is valid.

  14. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  15. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

    PubMed

    Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

    2016-09-28

    Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10(-9)), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10(-4)), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10(-43)). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

  16. Twins and the paradox of dental-age estimations: a caution for researchers and clinicians.

    PubMed

    Pechníková, M; De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Vecchio, V; Cameriere, R; Zeqiri, B; Cattaneo, C

    2014-08-01

    The biological age difference among twins is frequently an issue in studies of genetic influence on various dental features, particularly dental development. The timing of dental development is a crucial issue also for many clinicians and researchers. The aim of this study was therefore to verify within groups of twins how dental development differs, by applying Demirjian's method, Mincer's charts of development of third molars and two of Cameriere's methods for dental age estimation, which are among the most popular methods both in the clinical and the forensic scenario. The sample consisted of 64 twin pairs: 21 monozygotic, 30 dizygotic same-sex and 13 dizygotic opposite-sex with an age range between 5.8 and 22.6 years. Dental age was determined from radiographs using the mentioned methods. Results showed that dental age of monozygotic twins is not identical even if they share all their genes. The mean intra-pair difference of monozygotic pairs was low and similar to the difference in dizygotic same-sex twins; the maximum difference between monozygotic twins, however, was surprisingly large (nearly two years). This should lead to some circumspection in the interpretation of systematic estimations of dental age both in the clinical and forensic scenario.

  17. Age estimation from stages of epiphyseal union in the presacral vertebrae.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V; Ríos, Luis

    2011-02-01

    The presacral vertebrae have various secondary centers of ossification, whose timing of fusion can be used for age estimation of human skeletal remains up to the middle to the latter third decade. However, detailed information about the age at which these secondary centers of ossification fuse has been lacking. In this study, the timing of epiphyseal union in presacral vertebrae was studied in a sample of modern Portuguese skeletons (57 females and 47 males) between the ages of 9 and 30, taken from the Lisbon documented skeletal collection. A detailed photographic record of these epiphyses and the age ranges for the different stages of epiphyseal union are provided. Partial union of epiphyses was observed from 11 to 27 years of age. In general, centers of ossification begin to fuse first in the cervical and lumbar vertebrae, followed by centers of ossification in the thoracic region. The first center of ossification to complete fusion is usually that of the mammillary process in lumbar vertebrae. This is usually followed by that of the transverse process, spinous transverse process, and annular ring, regardless of vertebra type. There were no statistically significant sex differences in timing of fusion, but there was a trend toward early maturation in females for some vertebra or epiphyses. Bilateral epiphyses did not show statistically significant differences in timing of fusion. This study offers information on timing of fusion of diverse epiphyseal locations useful for age estimation of complete or fragmented human skeletal remains.

  18. The radiocarbon age of calcite dissolving at the sea floor: Estimates from pore water data

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, W.R.; McNichol, A.P.; McCorkle, D.C.

    2000-04-01

    The authors measured the radiocarbon content and stable isotopic composition of pore water and bottom water {Sigma}CO{sub 2}, sedimentary organic carbon, and CaCO{sub 3} at two sites on the Ceara Rise, one underlying bottom water that is supersaturated with respect to calcite (Site B), the other underlying under saturated bottom water (Site G). The results were combined with pore water O{sub 2}, {Sigma}CO{sub 2}, and Ca{sup 2+} profiles (Martin and Sayles, 1996) to estimate the radiocarbon content of the CaCO{sub 3} that is dissolving in the sediment mixed layer. At Site G, the CaCO{sub 3} that is dissolving in the upper 2 cm of the sediments is clearly younger (richer in {sup 14}C) than the bulk sedimentary CaCO{sub 3}, indicating that nonhomogeneous CaCO{sub 3} dissolution occurs there. The case for nonhomogeneous dissolution is much weaker at the site underlying supersaturated bottom water. The results indicate that nonhomogeneous dissolution occurs in sediments underlying under saturated bottom water, that the dissolution is rapid relative to the rate of homogenization of the CaCO{sub 3} in the mixed layer by bioturbation, and that the dissolution rate of CaCO{sub 3} decreases as it ages in the sediment mixed layer. The results support the hypothesis, based on solid phase analyses, that the preferential dissolution of young (i.e., radiocarbon-rich) CaCO{sub 3} leads to a pattern of increasing radiocarbon age of mixed-layer CaCO{sub 3} as the degree of under saturation of bottom water increases (Keir, 1984; Broecker et al., 1991).

  19. Age estimation using CT imaging of the third molar tooth, the medial clavicular epiphysis, and the spheno-occipital synchondrosis: a multifactorial approach.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Briggs, Christopher; Drummer, Olaf H

    2011-10-10

    A multi-factorial method for estimating age was devised based on the development of the 3rd molar tooth, the medial clavicular epiphysis, and the spheno-occipital synchondrosis, using multiple regression as the means to construct age estimation formulae and CT scanning as the imaging modality. The sample consisted of approximately 600 individuals from a contemporary Australian population, between the ages of 15 and 25 years, who were admitted to the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine, Melbourne, Australia, for the purposes of medico-legal death investigation. Results show that the spheno-occipital synchondrosis does not contribute to the age estimation model for this age cohort. The regression computation for the 3rd molar tooth and medial clavicle, when combined into a single multiple regression calculation, provides a robust model with tighter age ranges at the 95% confidence interval (CI) than when each age marker is used individually. This research provides a method to estimate age for unknown age Australian individuals in the problematic age group of 15-25 years with greater precision than previously possible.

  20. Age estimation methods using anthropological parameters on human teeth-(A0736).

    PubMed

    Brkic, H; Milicevic, M; Petrovecki, M

    2006-10-16

    The research was conducted on the 160 intact extracted human teeth with one and two roots of the known age and sex. The teeth were disinfected, dried and X-rayed. After that the section of the longitudinal cut through the teeth was performed in order to facilitate monitoring of all tissues and morphological characteristics of the teeth. The age was determined in three ways: Method 1 [G.Bang, E. Ramm, Determination of age in humans from root dentin transparency, Acta Odontol. Scand. 28 (1970) 3-35]--analysis of the translucency of the root dentine, Method 2 [S. Kvaal, T. Solheim, A non-destructive dental method for age estimation, J. Forensic Odonto-stomatol. 12 (1994) 6-11]--analysis of the root and the root canal from the X-ray, Method 3 [G. Johanson, Age determination from human teeth, Odontol. Revy. 22 (1971) 1-126]--analysis of six parameters on each teeth. All data were subject to the correlation and regression analysis which showed the following: all of the three applied methods were in the significant correlation with the real age, and the best of them proved to be Method 3 where the coefficient of correlation was 0.85, p<0.001. The teeth of the maxilla are more convenient for the age determination than the teeth of mandible. They are in the significant strong correlation with the known real age, and in Method 3, the coefficient of correlation is 0.78, p<0.001. Age determination of the teeth with two roots is in significant correlation with the known real age p<0.001 in relation to the determined age on the teeth with one root. The results show that sex too, is in significant correlation with the real age, p<0.001. In practice, the methods used and the results achieved in this research have been enabling the dental age estimation of human remains from mass graves after the 1991 war in Croatia.

  1. Estimating Allele Age and Selection Coefficient from Time-Serial Data

    PubMed Central

    Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Malaspinas, Orestis; Evans, Steven N.; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in sequencing technologies have made available an ever-increasing amount of ancient genomic data. In particular, it is now possible to target specific single nucleotide polymorphisms in several samples at different time points. Such time-series data are also available in the context of experimental or viral evolution. Time-series data should allow for a more precise inference of population genetic parameters and to test hypotheses about the recent action of natural selection. In this manuscript, we develop a likelihood method to jointly estimate the selection coefficient and the age of an allele from time-serial data. Our method can be used for allele frequencies sampled from a single diallelic locus. The transition probabilities are calculated by approximating the standard diffusion equation of the Wright–Fisher model with a one-step process. We show that our method produces unbiased estimates. The accuracy of the method is tested via simulations. Finally, the utility of the method is illustrated with an application to several loci encoding coat color in horses, a pattern that has previously been linked with domestication. Importantly, given our ability to estimate the age of the allele, it is possible to gain traction on the important problem of distinguishing selection on new mutations from selection on standing variation. In this coat color example for instance, we estimate the age of this allele, which is found to predate domestication. PMID:22851647

  2. Estimating allele age and selection coefficient from time-serial data.

    PubMed

    Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Malaspinas, Orestis; Evans, Steven N; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2012-10-01

    Recent advances in sequencing technologies have made available an ever-increasing amount of ancient genomic data. In particular, it is now possible to target specific single nucleotide polymorphisms in several samples at different time points. Such time-series data are also available in the context of experimental or viral evolution. Time-series data should allow for a more precise inference of population genetic parameters and to test hypotheses about the recent action of natural selection. In this manuscript, we develop a likelihood method to jointly estimate the selection coefficient and the age of an allele from time-serial data. Our method can be used for allele frequencies sampled from a single diallelic locus. The transition probabilities are calculated by approximating the standard diffusion equation of the Wright-Fisher model with a one-step process. We show that our method produces unbiased estimates. The accuracy of the method is tested via simulations. Finally, the utility of the method is illustrated with an application to several loci encoding coat color in horses, a pattern that has previously been linked with domestication. Importantly, given our ability to estimate the age of the allele, it is possible to gain traction on the important problem of distinguishing selection on new mutations from selection on standing variation. In this coat color example for instance, we estimate the age of this allele, which is found to predate domestication.

  3. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2013-01-01

    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  4. Estimating age at death using the sternal end of the fourth ribs from Mexican males.

    PubMed

    Cerezo-Román, Jessica Inés; Hernández Espinoza, Patricia Olga

    2014-03-01

    The indicators proposed by İşcan et al. (1984) are said to reflect age changes that occur in the sternal end of the fourth rib. These indicators have been used to estimate age-at-death in adult skeletal samples. However, Isçan et al. developed their methods using a forensic sample from Florida (U.S.A.). In order to test the reproducibility of those methods we evaluate its accuracy for the fourth ribs by applying it to a sample of known age and sex but of different biological affinity: modern males from Mexico City. We found that the method developed by İşcan et al. underestimates age-at-death in the Mexican sample.

  5. Age estimates of globular clusters in the Milky Way: constraints on cosmology.

    PubMed

    Krauss, Lawrence M; Chaboyer, Brian

    2003-01-03

    Recent observations of stellar globular clusters in the Milky Way Galaxy, combined with revised ranges of parameters in stellar evolution codes and new estimates of the earliest epoch of globular cluster formation, result in a 95% confidence level lower limit on the age of the Universe of 11.2 billion years. This age is inconsistent with the expansion age for a flat Universe for the currently allowed range of the Hubble constant, unless the cosmic equation of state is dominated by a component that violates the strong energy condition. This means that the three fundamental observables in cosmology-the age of the Universe, the distance-redshift relation, and the geometry of the Universe-now independently support the case for a dark energy-dominated Universe.

  6. Utility of the frontonasal suture for estimating age at death in human skeletal remains.

    PubMed

    Alesbury, Helen S; Ubelaker, Douglas H; Bernstein, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This project evaluated the utility of the frontonasal suture for estimating age at death. Utilizing human remains of known age at death with varying degrees of fusion, curated at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City and the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, DC, data were collected from the ectocranial surface of 522 crania; 68 of these were sagittally sectioned, allowing collection of internal data and observation of suture closure through the bone. Degree of ectocranial suture closure does not significantly predict age, even when sex and ancestry are accounted for. Suture closure progression data were converted into a Hershkovitz ratio (sum of the measurement of open portion divided by the total suture length), and regression models demonstrate that the effect of age accounts for only 13% of variation in suture closure.

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  8. The incidence of asymmetrical left/right skeletal and dental development in an Australian population and the effect of this on forensic age estimations.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Briggs, Christopher; Drummer, Olaf H

    2012-03-01

    The prevalence of developmental asymmetry between left and right sides of the body in the third molar tooth and medial clavicular epiphysis is examined in a contemporary Australian population (92% Caucasian). The contention that differences between left and right side developmental timing is statistically insignificant, and can therefore be ignored in forensic age estimation procedures, is questioned. It was found that of a population sample of 604 individuals, 177 displayed asymmetrical timing in development between antimeres of the third molar, the medial clavicle or both. There was no correlation found between the third molar tooth and medial clavicular epiphysis in terms of left/right synchronicity. For those individuals differing in development by two or more developmental stages in either age marker or one stage in both age markers, the effect upon the accuracy of forensic age estimations can be significant. Differences in age estimates for each side were as much as 3.1 years. Age estimations based on one side only may not provide the best estimate for an individual, and more accurate results can be achieved if both sides are taken into consideration. A protocol for dealing with asymmetrical development is discussed with reference to the multifactorial age estimation method proposed by the same authors in previous research.

  9. Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Web-ICE estimates acute toxicity (LC50/LD50) of a chemical to a species, genus, or family from the known toxicity of the chemical to a surrogate species. Web-ICE has modules to predict acute toxicity to aquatic (fish and invertebrates) and wildlife (birds and mammals) taxa for us...

  10. AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominant/co-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

  11. Age and sex differences in estimated tibia strength: influence of measurement site.

    PubMed

    Sherk, Vanessa D; Bemben, Debra A

    2013-01-01

    Variability in peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) measurement sites and outcome variables limit direct comparisons of results between studies. Furthermore, it is unclear what estimates of bone strength are most indicative of changes due to aging, disease, or interventions. The purpose of this study was to examine age and sex differences in estimates of tibia strength. An additional purpose of this study was to determine which tibia site or sites are most sensitive for detecting age and sex differences in tibia strength. Self-identifying Caucasian men (n=55) and women (n=59) aged 20-59yr had their tibias measured with pQCT from 5% to 85% of limb length in 10% increments distal to proximal. Bone strength index, strength strain index (SSI), moments of inertia (Ip, Imax, and Imin), and strength-to-mass ratios (polar moment of inertia to total bone mineral content [BMC] ratio [Ip:Tot.BMC] and strength strain index to total BMC ratio [SSI:Tot.BMC]) were quantified. There were significant (p<0.01) site effects for all strength variables and strength-to-mass ratios. Site×sex interaction effects were significant (p<0.05) for all strength variables. Men had greater (p<0.01) values than women for all strength variables. Sex differences in Ip, Imax, Ip:Tot.BMC, SSI, and SSI:Tot.BMC ratios were the smallest at the 15% site and peaked at various sites, depending on variable. Site×age interactions existed for Imax, Ip:Tot.BMC, and SSI:Tot.BMC. There were significant age effects, Imax, Ip:Tot.BMC, and SSI:Tot.BMC, as values were the lowest in the 20-29 age group. Age and sex differences varied by measurement site and variable, and larger sex differences existed for moments of inertia than SSI. Strength-to-mass ratios may reflect efficiency of the whole bone architecture.

  12. A Geology-Based Estimate of Connate Water Salinity Distribution

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    ERDC/CHL CHETN-XI-3 September 2014 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Geology -Based Estimate of Connate Water Salinity...of this Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) is to document a geology -based interpolation method developed to estimate the...TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Geology -Based Estimate of Connate Water Salinity Distribution 5a. CONTRACT

  13. The biochemical estimation of age in Euphausiids: Laboratory calibration and field comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, H. R.; Ju, Se-J.; Son, S.-K.; Feinberg, L. R.; Shaw, C. T.; Peterson, W. T.

    2010-04-01

    Euphausiids play a key role in many marine ecosystems as a link between primary producers and top predators. Understanding their demographic (i.e. age) structure is an essential tool to assess growth and recruitment as well as to determine how changes in environmental conditions might alter their condition and distribution. Age determination of crustaceans cannot be accomplished using traditional approaches, and here we evaluate the potential for biochemical products of tissue metabolism (termed lipofuscins) to determine the demographic structure of euphausiids in field collections . Lipofuscin was extracted from krill neural tissues (eye and eye-stalk), quantified using fluorescent intensity and normalized to tissue protein content to allow comparisons across animal sizes. Multiple fluorescent components from krill were observed, with the major product having a maximum fluorescence at excitation of 355 nm and emission of 510 nm. Needed age calibration of lipofuscin accumulation in Euphausia pacifica was accomplished using known-age individuals hatched and reared in the laboratory for over one year. Lipofuscin content extracted from neural tissues of laboratory-reared animals was highly correlated with the chronological age of animals ( r=0.87). Calibrated with laboratory lipofuscin accumulation rates, field-collected sub-adult and adult E. pacifica in the Northeast Pacific were estimated to be older than 100 days and younger than 1year. Comparative data for the Antarctic krill, E. superba showed much higher lipofuscin values suggesting a much longer lifespan than the more temperate species, E. pacifica. These regional comparisons suggest that biochemical indices allow a practical approach to estimate population age structure of diverse populations, and combined with other measurements can provide estimates of vital rates (i.e. longevity, mortality, growth) for krill populations in dynamic environments.

  14. Forensic age estimation by the Schmeling method: computed tomography analysis of the medial clavicular epiphysis.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Inci, Ercan; Sayin, Ibrahim; Solmaz, Dilek; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Can, Ismail Ozgur

    2015-01-01

    The variability of anthropometric measures, such as the degree of ossification, among societies should be taken into account when estimating age. The degree of ossification of the medial clavicle can be determined with thin-section computed tomography (CT), which is one of the methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics of the German Association of Forensic Medicine. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the applicability of thin-section CT analysis of the degree of ossification of the medial clavicle in a Turkish population. We evaluated the CT images (1-mm slice thickness) of 503 patients (362 male, 141 female; age, 10-35 years) using the Schmeling five-stage method. The Spearman's correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between age and ossification stage in both male and female patients (total group: rho = 0.838, p < 0.001; male: rho = 0.831, p < 0.001; female: rho = 0.856, p < 0.001). The linear regression analysis results indicated that the ossification stage of the medial clavicle is a good predictor when estimating age (r (2) = 0.735 for all patients, 0.734 for male patients, 0.741 for female patients). Sex differences in ossification stages were observed only for stage 1 and 4 ossification. We believe that future research could expand the database on this topic and contribute to improvements in this measurement method.

  15. Parameter estimation using carbon-14 ages: Lessons from the Danube-Tisza interfluvial region of Hungary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.E.; Deak, J.; Revesz, K.

    2002-01-01

    Parameter estimation was conducted on a groundwater model of the Danube-Tisza interfluvial region of Hungary. The model was calibrated using 300 water levels and 48 14C ages. The model provided a test of regression methods for a system with a large number of observations. Up to 103 parameters representing horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities and boundary conductances were assigned using point values and bilinear interpolation between points. The lowest errors were obtained using an iterative approach with groups of parameters, rather than estimating all of the parameters simultaneously. The model with 48 parameters yielded the lowest standard error of regression.

  16. The utility of ancient human DNA for improving allele age estimates, with implications for demographic models and tests of natural selection

    PubMed Central

    Sams, Aaron J.; Hawks, John; Keinan, Alon

    2015-01-01

    The age of polymorphic alleles in humans is often estimated from population genetic patterns in extant human populations, such as allele frequencies, linkage disequilibrium, and rate of mutations. Ancient DNA can improve the accuracy of such estimates, as well as facilitate testing the validity of demographic models underlying many population genetic methods. Specifically, the presence of an allele in a genome derived from an ancient sample testifies that the allele is at least as old as that sample. In this study, we consider a common method for estimating allele age based on allele frequency as applied to variants from the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Exome Sequencing Project. We view these estimates in the context of the presence or absence of each allele in the genomes of the 5300 year old Tyrolean Iceman, Ötzi, and of the 50,000 year old Altai Neandertal. Our results illuminate the accuracy of these estimates and their sensitivity to demographic events that were not included in the model underlying age estimation. Specifically, allele presence in the Iceman genome provides a good fit of allele age estimates to the expectation based on the age of that specimen. The equivalent based on the Neandertal genome leads to a poorer fit. This is likely due in part to the older age of the Neandertal and the older time of the split between modern humans and Neandertals, but also due to gene flow from Neandertals to modern humans not being considered in the underlying demographic model. Thus, the incorporation of ancient DNA can improve allele age estimation, demographic modeling, and tests of natural selection. Our results also point to the importance of considering a more diverse set of ancient samples for understanding the geographic and temporal range of individual alleles. PMID:25467111

  17. Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

    2007-01-01

    age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The Genus Cecropia: A Biological Clock to Estimate the Age of Recently Disturbed Areas in the Neotropics

    PubMed Central

    Zalamea, Paul-Camilo; Heuret, Patrick; Sarmiento, Carolina; Rodríguez, Manuel; Berthouly, Anne; Guitet, Stéphane; Nicolini, Eric; Delnatte, César; Barthélémy, Daniel; Stevenson, Pablo R.

    2012-01-01

    Forest successional processes following disturbance take decades to play out, even in tropical forests. Nonetheless, records of vegetation change in this ecosystem are scarce, increasing the importance of the chronosequence approach to study forest recovery. However, this approach requires accurate dating of secondary forests, which until now was a difficult and/or expensive task. Cecropia is a widespread and abundant pioneer tree genus of the Neotropics. Here we propose and validate a rapid and straightforward method to estimate the age of secondary forest patches based on morphological observations of Cecropia trees. We found that Cecropia-inferred ages were highly correlated with known ages of the forest. We also demonstrate that Cecropia can be used to accurately date disturbances and propose twenty-one species distributed all over the geographical range of the genus as potential secondary forest chronometer species. Our method is limited in applicability by the maximal longevity of Cecropia individuals. Although the oldest chronosequence used in this study was 20 years old, we argue that at least for the first four decades after disturbance, the method described in this study provides very accurate estimations of secondary forest ages. The age of pioneer trees provides not only information needed to calculate the recovery of carbon stocks that would help to improve forest management, but also provides information needed to characterize the initial floristic composition and the rates of species remigration into secondary forest. Our contribution shows how successional studies can be reliably and inexpensively extended without the need to obtain forest ages based on expensive or potentially inaccurate data across the Neotropics. PMID:22916144

  19. Two new oro-cervical radiographic indexes for chronological age estimation: a pilot study on an Italian population.

    PubMed

    Lajolo, Carlo; Giuliani, Michele; Cordaro, Massimo; Marigo, Luca; Marcelli, Antonio; Fiorillo, Fabio; Pascali, Vincenzo L; Oliva, Antonio

    2013-10-01

    Chronological age (CA) plays a fundamental role in forensic dentistry (i.e. personal identification and evaluation of imputability). Even though several studies outlined the association between biological and chronological age, there is still great variability in the estimates. The aim of this study was to determine the possible correlation between biological and CA age through the use of two new radiographic indexes (Oro-Cervical Radiographic Simplified Score - OCRSS and Oro-Cervical Radiographic Simplified Score Without Wisdom Teeth - OCRSSWWT) that are based on the oro-cervical area. Sixty Italian Caucasian individuals were divided into 3 groups according to their CA: Group 1: CAG 1 = 8-14 yr; Group 2: CAG 2 = 14-18 yr; Group 3: CAG 3 = 18-25 yr; panorexes and standardised cephalograms were evaluated according Demirjian's Method for dental age calculation (DM), Cervical Vertebral Maturation method for skeletal age calculation (CVMS) and Third Molar Development for age estimation (TMD). The stages of each method were simplified in order to generate OCRSS, which summarized the simplified scores of the three methods, and OCRSSWWT, which summarized the simplified DM and CVMS scores. There was a significant correlation between OCRSS and CAGs (Slope = 0.954, p < 0.001, R-squared = 0.79) and between OCRSSWWT and CAGs (Slope = 0.863, p < 0.001, R-squared = 0.776). Even though the indexes, especially OCRSS, appear to be highly reliable, growth variability among individuals can deeply influence the anatomical changes from childhood to adulthood. A multi-disciplinary approach that considers many different biomarkers could help make radiological age determination more reliable when it is used to predict CA.

  20. The Solar Twin Planet Search. III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucci Maia, M.; Ramírez, I.; Meléndez, J.; Bedell, M.; Bean, J. L.; Asplund, M.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provides an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015, A&A, 579, A52) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the α-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. Aims: This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range (0.3-10.0 Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. Methods: We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. Results: The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041 ± 0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41σ. This is in excellent agreement with the relation first proposed by Nissen (2015). We found some outliers that turned out to be binaries where mass transfer may have enhanced the yttrium abundance. Given a precise measurement of [Y/Mg] with typical error of 0.02 dex in solar twins, our formula can be used to determine a stellar age with ~0.8 Gyr precision in the 0 to 10 Gyr range. Based on observations obtained at the Clay Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile and at the 3.6 m Telescope at the La Silla ESO Observatory, Chile (program ID 188.C-0265).

  1. Validation of transition analysis as a method of adult age estimation in a modern South African sample.

    PubMed

    Jooste, N; L'Abbé, E N; Pretorius, S; Steyn, M

    2016-09-01

    The use of advanced statistical methods, such as transition analysis, has transformed adult age estimation into a systematically and statistically appropriate practice. The method developed by Boldsen and colleagues (2002) uses 36 features from the cranial sutures, pubic symphysis and auricular surface to calculate maximum likelihood point estimates and 95% confidence intervals, using the ADBOU computer software. However, when using the method in a geographically and contextually distinct sample, such as South Africa, accuracy and precision is of concern. This study aimed to test the repeatability, accuracy and precision of the transition analysis method, using the ADBOU computer software, on a South African sample. Age estimations were generated, for 149 black individuals from the Pretoria Bone Collection, using three individual components as well as different combinations of components and prior distributions (uniform and informative). The informative prior distributions represented both an archaeological and a forensic context. Cohen's kappa statistic uncovered some failings in the scoring procedure. While the accuracy compared favourably with existing methods, the method lacked satisfactory precision. Although combining the components improved accuracy and precision, removing the cranium from the combination was beneficial in some instances. The influence of population variation was observed in the scoring procedure, reference sample and the prior distributions. Validity may be improved for a South African sample by adding age-related components that have been developed on a relevant population. A prior distribution based on South African mortality rates might also be beneficial.

  2. Age estimation and the developing third molar tooth: an analysis of an Australian population using computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Briggs, C; Drummer, Olaf H

    2011-09-01

    The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for age estimation of unknown age individuals in the late adolescent years. Computed tomography (CT) images were assessed in an Australian population aged from 15 to 25 years for development trends, particularly concerning age estimation at the child/adult transition point of 18 years. The CT images were also compared to conventional radiographs to assess the developmental scoring agreement between the two and it was found that agreement of Demirjian scores between the two imaging modalities was excellent. The relatively wide age ranges (mean ± 2SD) indicate that the third molar is not a precise tool for age estimation (age ranges of 3-8 years) but is, however, a useful tool for discriminating the adult/child transition age of 18 years. In the current study 100% of females and 96% of males with completed roots were over 18 years of age.

  3. Uncertainty relation based on unbiased parameter estimations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Liang-Liang; Song, Yong-Shun; Qiao, Cong-Feng; Yu, Sixia; Chen, Zeng-Bing

    2017-02-01

    Heisenberg's uncertainty relation has been extensively studied in spirit of its well-known original form, in which the inaccuracy measures used exhibit some controversial properties and don't conform with quantum metrology, where the measurement precision is well defined in terms of estimation theory. In this paper, we treat the joint measurement of incompatible observables as a parameter estimation problem, i.e., estimating the parameters characterizing the statistics of the incompatible observables. Our crucial observation is that, in a sequential measurement scenario, the bias induced by the first unbiased measurement in the subsequent measurement can be eradicated by the information acquired, allowing one to extract unbiased information of the second measurement of an incompatible observable. In terms of Fisher information we propose a kind of information comparison measure and explore various types of trade-offs between the information gains and measurement precisions, which interpret the uncertainty relation as surplus variance trade-off over individual perfect measurements instead of a constraint on extracting complete information of incompatible observables.

  4. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Shankar, Anoop; Lee, Kristine E; Klein, Barbara EK; Muntner, Paul; Brazy, Peter C; Cruickshanks, Karen J; Nieto, F Javier; Danforth, Lorraine G; Schubert, Carla R; Tsai, Michael Y; Klein, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    Background: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample. Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women). We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG) equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L. Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1.73 m2 by the MDRD equation had cystatin C levels >1.23 mg/L; their mean cystatin C level was only 1 mg/L (interquartile range, 0.9–1.2 mg/L). This finding was similar for the CG equation. For the Mayo equation, 62.8% of those patients with GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1.73 m2 had cystatin C levels >1.23 mg/L; their mean cystatin C level was 1.3 mg/L (interquartile range, 1.2–1.5 mg/L). The MDRD and CG equations showed a false-positive rate of >10%. Discussion: We found that the MDRD and CG equations, the current standard to estimate GFR, appeared to overestimate the prevalence of CKD in a general population sample. PMID:20730018

  5. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

  6. Estimating Age-Specific Immunity and Force of Infection of Varicella Zoster Virus in Norway Using Mixture Models

    PubMed Central

    Rimseliene, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero

    2016-01-01

    This study applies mixture modelling to examine age-specific immunity to varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection in Norway based on the first large-scale serological study in the general population. We estimated the seropositive proportions at different ages and calculated the underlying force of infection by using a sample of 2103 residual sera obtained from patients seeking primary and hospital care. A rapid increase in the VZV-associated immunity is observed in the first years of life with 63% of children being immune by age 5. The increase in the immunity levels slows down thereafter, with a large proportion of adults still susceptible by age 20 (around 14.5%), thus at risk of serious sequelae of varicella infection. The corresponding force of infection peaks during the preschool period, subsequently declines to a minimum between ages 10 and 20 years, and afterwards moderately increases to reach a plateau lasting throughout the childbearing period. In comparison with the traditional cut-off approach, mixture modelling used the whole data without producing any inconclusive cases, led to an unbiased classification of individuals between susceptible and immune, and provided a smoother immune profile by age. These findings represent an important step towards any decision about the introduction of varicella vaccination in Norway, as they are a primary input for mathematical transmission models aimed at evaluating potential vaccination scenarios. PMID:27689800

  7. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  8. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  9. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  10. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  11. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  12. Estimating dose rates to organs as a function of age following internal exposure to radionuclides

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Cristy, M.; Crawford-Brown, D.J.; Williams, L.R.

    1984-03-01

    The AGEDOS methodology allows estimates of dose rates, as a function of age, to radiosensitive organs and tissues in the human body at arbitrary times during or after internal exposure to radioactive material. Presently there are few, if any, radionuclides for which sufficient metabolic information is available to allow full use of all features of the methodology. The intention has been to construct the methodology so that optimal information can be gained from a mixture of the limited amount of age-dependent, nuclide-specific data and the generally plentiful age-dependent physiological data now available. Moreover, an effort has been made to design the methodology so that constantly accumulating metabolic information can be incorporated with minimal alterations in the AGEDOS computer code. Some preliminary analyses performed by the authors, using the AGEDOS code in conjunction with age-dependent risk factors developed from the A-bomb survivor data and other studies, has indicated that the doses and subsequent risks of eventually experiencing radiogenic cancers may vary substantially with age for some exposure scenarios and may be relatively invariant with age for other scenarios. We believe that the AGEDOS methodology provides a convenient and efficient means for performing the internal dosimetry.

  13. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

  14. Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

  15. The Impact of Starspots on Mass and Age Estimates for Pre-main Sequence Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somers, Garrett; Pinsonneault, Marc H.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact of starspots on the evolution of late-type stars during the pre-main sequence (pre-MS). We find that heavy spot coverage increases the radii of stars by 4-10%, consistent with inflation factors in eclipsing binary systems, and suppresses the rate of pre-MS lithium depletion, leading to a dispersion in zero-age MS Li abundance (comparable to observed spreads) if a range of spot properties exist within clusters from 3-10 Myr. This concordance with data implies that spots induce a range of radii at fixed mass during the pre-MS. These spots decrease the luminosity and T eff of stars, leading to a displacement on the HR diagram. This displacement causes isochrone derived masses and ages to be systematically under-estimated, and can lead to the spurious appearance of an age spread in a co-eval population.

  16. Equations to estimate fetal age at the moment of death in the Mexican population.

    PubMed

    Chávez-Martínez, Perla; Ortega-Palma, Albertina; Castrejón-Caballero, José Luis; Arteaga-Martínez, Manuel

    2016-09-01

    Metric standards are presented for the estimation of fetal age at the time of death in the Mexican population. To obtain these standards, both metric and radiological studies were conducted on 97 fetuses and complete stillborn infants of both sexes, phenotypically normal between 10 and 38 weeks of morphological age. All the fetuses used were the product of spontaneous abortions in Mexico City between 1990 and 2000. Equations were obtained by calibrating quadratic linear regression models adjusted for the diaphyseal length of the humerus, radius, ulna, femur, tibia and fibula, characterized as the most adequate indicators to represent the growth of long bones in this age group, and verified by the evaluation of the model assumptions and the coefficient of determination (R(2)). To conclude, these models facilitate a more precise prediction in fetuses of the Mexican population, constituting the first metric standards of their type at a national level.

  17. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  18. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  19. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  20. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  1. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  2. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  3. Online state of health estimation on NMC cells based on predictive analytics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berecibar, Maitane; Devriendt, Floris; Dubarry, Matthieu; Villarreal, Igor; Omar, Noshin; Verbeke, Wouter; Van Mierlo, Joeri

    2016-07-01

    Accurate on board state of health estimation is a key battery management system function to provide optimal management of the battery system under control. In this regard, this paper presents an extensive study and comparison of three of commonly used supervised learning methods for state of health estimation in Graphite/Nickel Manganese Cobalt oxide cells. The three methods were based from the study of both incremental capacity and differential voltage curves. According to the ageing evolution of both curves, features were extracted and used as inputs for the estimation techniques. Ordinary Least Squares, Multilayer Perceptron and Support Vector Machine were used as the estimation techniques and accurate results were obtained while requiring a low computational effort. Moreover, this work allows a deep comparison of the different estimation techniques in terms of accuracy, online estimation and BMS applicability. In addition, estimation can be developed by partial charging and/or partial discharging, reducing the required maintenance time.

  4. Magnetic resonance imaging of distal tibia and calcaneus for forensic age estimation in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Can, Ismail Ozgur; Inci, Ercan; Aksoy, Sema; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan

    2015-07-01

    In recent years, methods by which to decrease radiation exposure during age estimation have gained importance and become a main research area in the forensic sciences. Imaging tools such as X-ray and computed tomography (CT) are accepted as the main diagnostic methods for evaluation of the epiphysis in living individuals; however, radiation exposure and superimposition are the main disadvantages of these techniques. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging provides an advantage in terms of preventing radiation exposure. In this study, we performed an MR analysis of the degree of fusion of the distal tibia and calcaneal epiphysis and investigated the utility of this technique in the Turkish population. Using the three-stage method described by Saint-Martin et al., we retrospectively evaluated 167 MR images (97 males, 70 females; mean age, 17.7 ± 4.8 years for males and 17.6 ± 4.9 years for females; age range of all subjects, 8-25 years). Intraobserver and interobserver evaluation showed good repeatability and consistency of this method. Stages 2 and 3 ossification of the distal tibial epiphysis first occurred at age 14 and 15 years in males and 12 and 14 years in females, respectively. Stages 2 and 3 ossification of the calcaneal epiphysis first occurred at age 14 and 16 years in males and 10 and 12 years in females, respectively. When performed alone, MR analysis of the distal tibial and calcaneal epiphysis offers limited information for forensic age estimation. However, we suggest that MR analysis can be used as a supportive method when it is necessary to avoid repeated radiation exposure.

  5. Telemetry-based mortality estimates of juvenile spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedl, Sarah E.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Scharf, Frederick S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

    2013-01-01

    We estimated natural mortality rates (M) of age-1 Spot Leiostomus xanthurus by using a sonic telemetry approach. Sonic transmitters were surgically implanted into a total of 123 age-1 Spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks during spring 2009 and 2010, and the fish were monitored by using a stationary acoustic receiver array and manual tracking. Fates of telemetered Spot were inferred based on telemetry information from estimated locations and swimming speeds. Potential competitors of age-1 Spot were assessed through simultaneous otter trawl sampling, while potential predators of Spot were collected using gill nets and trammel nets. The number of inferred natural mortalities was zero in 2009 (based on 29 telemetered Spot at risk) and four in 2010 (based on 52 fish at risk), with fish being at risk for up to about 70 d each year. Catches of potential competitors or predators did not differ between years, and age-1 Spot were not found in analyzed stomach contents of potential predators. Our estimated 30-d M of 0.03 (95% credible interval = 0.01–0.07) was lower than that predicted from weight-based (M = 0.07) and life-history-based (M = 0.06–0.36) estimates. Our field-based estimate of M for age-1 Spot in this estuarine system can assist in the assessment and management of Spot by allowing a direct comparison with M-values predicted from fish size or life history characteristics. The field telemetry and statistical analysis techniques developed here provide guidance for future telemetry studies of relatively small fish in open, dynamic habitat systems, as they highlight strengths and weaknesses of using a telemetry approach to estimate M.

  6. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  7. Graphical and Demographic Synopsis of the Captive Cohort Method for Estimating Population Age Structure in the Wild

    PubMed Central

    Carey, James R.; Müller, Hans-Georg; Wang, Jane-Ling; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Diamantidis, Alexis; Kouloussis, Nikos

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to complement the literature concerned with the captive cohort method for estimating age structure including (1) graphic techniques to visualize and thus better understand the underlying life table identity in which the age structure of a stationary population equals the time-to-death distribution of the individuals within it; (2) re-derive the basic model for estimating age structure in non-stationary population in demographic rather than statistical notation; and (3) describe a simplified method for estimating changes in the mean age of a wild population. PMID:22776134

  8. Wind field model-based estimation of Seasat scatterometer winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Long, David G.

    1993-01-01

    A model-based approach to estimating near-surface wind fields over the ocean from Seasat scatterometer (SASS) measurements is presented. The approach is a direct assimilation technique in which wind field model parameters are estimated directly from the scatterometer measurements of the radar backscatter of the ocean's surface using maximum likelihood principles. The wind field estimate is then computed from the estimated model parameters. The wind field model used in this approach is based on geostrophic approximation and on simplistic assumptions about the wind field vorticity and divergence but includes ageostrophic winds. Nine days of SASS data were processed to obtain unique wind estimates. Comparisons in performance to the traditional two-step (point-wise wind retrieval followed by ambiguity removal) wind estimate method and the model-based method are provided using both simulated radar backscatter measurements and actual SASS measurements. In the latter case the results are compared to wind fields determined using subjective ambiguity removal. While the traditional approach results in missing measurements and reduced effective swath width due to fore/aft beam cell coregistration problems, the model-based approach uses all available measurements to increase the effective swath width and to reduce data gaps. The results reveal that the model-based wind estimates have accuracy comparable to traditionally estimated winds with less 'noise' in the directional estimates, particularly at low wind speeds.

  9. Using GC × GC-FID profiles to estimate the age of weathered gasoline samples.

    PubMed

    Zorzetti, Brianne M; Harynuk, James J

    2011-11-01

    Predicting the amount of time that a petroleum mixture has been exposed to weathering effects has applications in areas of environmental and other forensic investigations, such as aiding in determining the cause and intent of a fire. Historically, research on the evaporation rates of hydrocarbon mixtures has focused on forensic oil spill identification and predicting if a fresh sample could be weathered to give an observed composition in an aged sample. Relatively little attention has focused on approaching the problem from the other direction: estimating exposure time based on the observed composition of a weathered sample at a given time and assuming a prior composition. Here, we build upon our previous research into the weathering of model mixtures by extending our work to gasoline. Samples of gasoline with varying octane ratings and from several vendors were weathered under controlled conditions and their composition monitored over time by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC × GC). A variety of chemometric models were explored, including partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear PLS (PolyPLS) and locally weighted regression (LWR). A hierarchical application of multivariate techniques was able to predict the time for which a sample had been exposed to evaporative weathering. Partial least squares discriminant analysis could predict whether a sample was relatively fresh (<12 h exposure time) or highly weathered (>20 h exposure time). Subsequent regression models for these classes were evaluated for accuracy using the root mean square error of prediction. LWR was the most successful, whereby fresh and highly weathered samples were predicted to within 30 min and 5 h of exposure, respectively.

  10. Drinking water contribution to aggregate perchlorate intake of reproductive-age women in the United States estimated by dietary intake simulation and analysis of urinary excretion data.

    PubMed

    Mendez, William; Dederick, Elizabeth; Cohen, Jonathan

    2010-05-01

    Estimates of perchlorate intake by the US population can be derived from either urinary excretion data or through simulation of dietary intake. Estimates from surveys of urinary excretion (NHANES) are subject to substantial uncertainty owing to the small numbers of subjects for which data are currently available. In addition, current excretion estimates are derived from "spot" urine samples and include a component of short-term (intra-day) variability that may give biased estimates of the variability in average daily intakes. Previous dietary estimates have generally not included any contribution from drinking water, owing to a lack of data related to perchlorate concentrations in water supplies. In this paper, we derive simulation (Monte Carlo) estimates of dietary perchlorate intake distributions for reproductive-age women, which include explicit contributions from drinking water, and compare them to estimates based on urinary excretion. Perchlorate concentrations in water were estimated based on measurements from the US Environmental Protection Agency's UCMR1 database, and from other regional studies of perchlorate contamination. We find that including the drinking water contributions in the dietary simulations yields increases in the population's geometric mean perchlorate intake of 3-8 percent, with a conservative maximum of about 24 percent, compared to intakes estimated based on food intake alone. The intake distributions estimated from dietary and water consumption were found to be very similar to estimates based on creatinine-adjusted perchlorate excretion data from the NHANES, except for having lower population variability. When the dietary simulation data were adjusted to include a contribution from short-term variability similar to that in the "spot" urine samples, the variability in the NHANES and diet-derived estimates were found to be very similar. Our analyses indicate that a reasonable upper-bound estimate for the 95th percentile perchlorate intake

  11. Use of maxillary tooth development to estimate age in a group of Hereford cross Friesian steers.

    PubMed

    Andrews, A H

    1981-11-01

    Visual and radiographic examination of maxillary tooth development was undertaken in a group of 76 Hereford cross Friesian steers, all but one slaughtered at the same weight (464 kg). Differences were found in the stages of second molar intraoral development between the various age groups. Radiographic inspection showed that stages of resorption of the temporary premolar roots and crown and root formation of the permanent cheek teeth varied with age. The maximum age range before animals could be differentiated into age groups using radiographic examination of maxillary tooth development was three months (one year from one year three months, one year three months from one year six months, one year four months from one year seven months, one year five months from one year eight months). In the carcase, radiography of the maxillary teeth provided a useful estimate of age. The first two maxillary molars were more advanced in crown and root formation than the permanent premolars. Except for the second permanent premolar all maxillary teeth were less advanced in development than their mandibular counterparts.

  12. Composite estimates of physiological stress, age, and diabetes in American Samoans.

    PubMed

    Crews, Douglas E

    2007-07-01

    Composite estimates of physiological stress such as allostatic load (AL) were developed to help assess cumulative impacts of psychosocial and physical stressors on the body. Physiological responses to stress generally accelerate somatic wear-and-tear and chronic degenerative conditions (CDCs). Following McEwen (Neuropsychopharmacology 22 (1999) 108-124) and others, primary physiological mediators of somatic stress responses include glucocorticoids (cortisol), catecholamines (adrenaline and noradrenaline), and serum dihydroepiandosterone-sulfate (DHEA-S). Conversely, blood pressure (BP), serum HDL and total cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and waist/hip (w/h) ratio are modulated by such hormones, thereby acting as secondary mediators of stress response. When these risk factors are aggregated into a composite score, higher stress loads are associated with increased risks for days of school/work missed, functional losses, morbidity, and mortality in US samples. To examine stress loads in American Samoans, data on all 6 secondary mediators along with estimates of body habitus (i.e. height, weight, circumferences, skinfolds) and physiology (i.e. fasting insulin, LDLc, triglycerides, fasting glucose) were measured on 273 individuals residing on Tutuila Island in 1992. Four combinations of these physiological factors were used to determine composite estimates of stress. These were then assessed by sex for associations with age and the presence of diabetes. Composite estimates of stress load were higher in Samoan women than men. Associations with age tended to be low and negative in men, but positive in women, appearing to reflect cultural circumstances and population history. Stress load scores also were higher among those with diabetes than those without among both men and women. These results suggest that composite estimates of stress may be useful for assessing future risks of CDC's and the senescent processes that may underlie them in cross-cultural research.

  13. A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the

  14. The Risser sign for forensic age estimation in living individuals: a study of 643 pelvic radiographs.

    PubMed

    Wittschieber, Daniel; Schmeling, Andreas; Schmidt, Sven; Heindel, Walter; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Vieth, Volker

    2013-03-01

    Due to increasing international migratory movements, forensic age estimations of living individuals in criminal proceedings are gaining increasing significance for forensic physicians and radiologists involved in delivering expert opinions. The present study examines the suitability of the radiologically well-known Risser sign grading as a possible new criterion in forensic age diagnostics. For this purpose, anteroposterior pelvic radiographs of 643 patients aged between 10 and 30 years were retrospectively evaluated by means of two different Risser sign grading systems (US and French), each with 5 stages. The left and right sides of the pelvis were assessed separately. The data was analyzed with separation of the sexes. Reliable Risser sign determination was possible in 566 cases. In both sexes, stage 4 of both the US and the French grading systems was predominantly first noted at age 14 years. In the US grading system, stage 5 was also first achieved at age 14 years in the majority of both sexes. In the French grading system, females manifested stage 5 at a minimum of 16 years, whereas in males it was first observed at 17 years. As to the nature of iliac crest maturation, interesting deviations were observed at stages 1 and 5, raising doubts about Risser's ossification process. To conclude, both Risser sign grading systems are suitable for forensic age diagnostics, especially to determine whether the 14th year of life has been completed or not. The French Risser sign system additionally allows for statements as to the completion of the 16th year of age.

  15. Age estimation by dental developmental stages in children and adolescents in Iceland.

    PubMed

    Vidisdottir, Sigridur Rosa; Richter, Svend

    2015-12-01

    Studies have shown that it is necessary to create a database for dental maturity for every population and compare it to others. The present study is the first one for dental development in the Icelandic population the age range being 4-24 years. It will help in forensic dental age estimation and will also help dentists, physicians, anthropologists, archaeologists and other professionals who rely on developmental age assessment in children and adolescents. In this present retrospective cross-sectional study, dental maturity was determined in 1100 Icelandic children and adolescents from orthopantomograms (OPGs). The first 100 were used for a pilot study and the remaining 1000 for the main study. A total of 23 subjects were excluded. The sample consisted of 508 girls and 469 boys from the age of 4-24 years and a dental developmental scoring system was used as a standard for determination of dental maturity stages. A total of 200 OPGs were studied both on the left and right side and the remaining on the right side. Dental maturity was established for all teeth and both genders, when the sample permitted, from the beginning of crown formation to the root apex closure. The Cronbach's Alpha reliability test showed high reliability, R=0.982. Girls in Iceland reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 17.81 years of age for the maxillary and at 18.47 years for the mandibular teeth. Boys reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 18.00 years of age in the maxilla and 17.63 in the mandible. There was no significant difference between left and right side (r=0.95-1.00) and there was no gender difference, except in root formation in maxillary and mandibular canines where girls reached root completed earlier than boys. A reliable database has been established in Iceland for tooth development in the age range of 4-24 years, which is compatible with international studies. These results will help forensic odontologists and other professionals to estimate with

  16. Women Under-estimate the Age of their Partners during Survey Interviews: Implications for HIV Risk associated with Age Mixing in Northern Malawi

    PubMed Central

    Kohler, Hans-Peter; Mkandawire, James

    2011-01-01

    Background Age mixing may explain differences in HIV prevalence across populations in sub-Saharan countries, but the validity of survey data on age mixing is unknown. Methods Age differences between partners are frequently estimated indirectly, by asking respondents to report their partner’s age. Partner age can also be assessed directly, by tracing partners and asking them to report their own age. We use data from 519 relationships, collected in Likoma (Malawi), in which both partners were interviewed and tested for HIV. In these relationships age differences were assessed both indirectly and directly, and estimates could thus be compared. We calculate the specificity and sensitivity of the indirect method in identifying age-homogenous/age-disparate relationships in which the male partner is less/more than 5 or 10 years older than the respondent. Results Women were accurate in identifying age-homogenous relationships, but not in identifying age-disparate relationships (specificity ≈ 90%, sensitivity = 24.3%). The sensitivity of the indirect method was even lower in detecting partners older than the respondent by 10 + years (9.6%). Among 43 relationships with an HIV-infected partner included in this study, there were close to 3 times more age-disparate relationships according to direct measures of partner age than according to women’s reports of their partner’s age (17% vs. 46%). Conclusions Survey reports of partner age significantly under-estimate the extent of and the HIV risk associated with age mixing in this population. Future studies of the impact of sexual mixing pattern son HIV risk in sub-Saharan countries should take reporting biases into account. PMID:21992979

  17. The role of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry in estimating the chronological age of living individuals in Hamburg, Germany.

    PubMed

    Mansour, Hussam; Fuhrmann, Andreas; Paradowski, Ioana; van Well, Eilin Jopp; Püschel, Klaus

    2017-03-01

    Age estimation represents one of the primary responsibilities of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry. It is an integral procedure aiming to estimate the chronological age of an individual, whose age is either unknown or doubtful, by means of assessing the stage of dental, skeletal, and physical development. The present publication reviews the methods and procedures used in estimating the age of young living individuals as well as the experiences of the Institute of Legal Medicine in Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany, during the last 25 years. From 1990 to 2015, 4223 age estimations were carried out in Hamburg. During this time, forensic age estimation was requested by different concerned authorities including courts, the foreigners' registration office (Zentrale Ausländerbehörde), and the state office of education and consultation (Landesbetrieb Erziehung und Beratung). In the context of judicial proceedings, orthopantomograms, as well as X-ray examinations of both the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses were carried out in accordance with AGFAD recommendations. For investigations not associated with judicial proceedings, orthopantomogram examinations play a key role in the process of age estimation, due to their high diagnostic value and low radiation exposure. Since 2009, mainly unaccompanied young refugees were examined for age estimation. Orthopantomograms and clinical-physical examinations have been used as essential steps in this context to determine whether an individual is 18 years or less. Additional X-ray examinations of the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses have been used less frequently.

  18. Estimating the surface age of arid-zone alluvial fans using spaceborne radar data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hetz, Guy; Mushkin, Amit; Blumberg, Dan G.; Baer, Gidi

    2013-10-01

    Alluvial fans constitute important recorders of tectonic and climatic signals. Thus, determining the age of alluvial deposits is a common and pivotal component in many quantitative studies of recent tectonic activity, past climatic variations and landscape evolution processes. In this study we build on the established relation between surface age and surface roughness and examine the use of radar backscatter data as a calibrated proxy for constraining the age of alluvial surfaces in such environments. This study was conducted in the hyper-arid environment of the southern Arava rift valley north of the Gulf of Aqaba. ALOS-PALSAR L-Band dual-polarized (i.e., HH, HV) data with different incidence angles (24°, 38°) and resolutions (6.25m, 12.5m) were examined for 11 alluvial surfaces, for which surface ages ranging from 5-160 ka were previously determined. As expected, radar backscatter in such low-relief hyper-arid desert environments responded primarily to SR at pixel-scales and below. Nonetheless, measured backscatter values for single pixels were found to be unsuitable proxies for surface age because of the natural variability in SR across alluvial units of a given age. Instead, we found the statistical properties of radar pixel populations within a given unit to be the most effective proxies for surface age. Our results show that the mean backscatter value within representativeROI's (region of interest) provided the best predictor for surface age: Lower mean backscatter values correlated well with older and smoother alluvial surfaces. The HHpolarized image with ~38° incidence angle and 6.25 m/pixel resolution allowed the best separation of surface ages. This radar-based approach allows us to quantitatively constrain the age of alluvial surfaces in the studied region at comparable uncertainty to that of "conventional" surface dating techniques commonly used.

  19. Estimating the age of fire in the Cape flora of South Africa from an orchid phylogeny

    PubMed Central

    Bytebier, Benny; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bellstedt, Dirk U.; Linder, H. Peter

    2011-01-01

    Fire may have been a crucial component in the evolution of the Cape flora of South Africa, a region characterized by outstanding levels of species richness and endemism. However, there is, to date, no critical assessment of the age of the modern fire regime in this biome. Here, we exploit the presence of two obligate post-fire flowering clades in the orchid genus Disa, in conjunction with a robust, well-sampled and dated molecular phylogeny, to estimate the age by which fire must have been present. Our results indicate that summer drought (winter rainfall), the fire regime and the fynbos vegetation are several million years older than currently suggested. Summer drought and the fynbos vegetation are estimated to date back to at least the Early Miocene (ca 19.5 Ma). The current fire regime may have been established during a period of global cooling that followed the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (ca 15 Ma), which led to the expansion of open habitats and increased aridification. The first appearance of Disa species in the grassland biome, as well as in the subalpine habitat, is in striking agreement with reliable geological and palaeontological evidence of the age of these ecosystems, thus corroborating the efficacy of our methods. These results change our understanding of the historical mechanisms underlying botanical evolution in southern Africa, and confirm the potential of using molecular phylogenies to date events for which other information is lacking or inconclusive. PMID:20685712

  20. Estimating the age of fire in the Cape flora of South Africa from an orchid phylogeny.

    PubMed

    Bytebier, Benny; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bellstedt, Dirk U; Linder, H Peter

    2011-01-22

    Fire may have been a crucial component in the evolution of the Cape flora of South Africa, a region characterized by outstanding levels of species richness and endemism. However, there is, to date, no critical assessment of the age of the modern fire regime in this biome. Here, we exploit the presence of two obligate post-fire flowering clades in the orchid genus Disa, in conjunction with a robust, well-sampled and dated molecular phylogeny, to estimate the age by which fire must have been present. Our results indicate that summer drought (winter rainfall), the fire regime and the fynbos vegetation are several million years older than currently suggested. Summer drought and the fynbos vegetation are estimated to date back to at least the Early Miocene (ca 19.5 Ma). The current fire regime may have been established during a period of global cooling that followed the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (ca 15 Ma), which led to the expansion of open habitats and increased aridification. The first appearance of Disa species in the grassland biome, as well as in the subalpine habitat, is in striking agreement with reliable geological and palaeontological evidence of the age of these ecosystems, thus corroborating the efficacy of our methods. These results change our understanding of the historical mechanisms underlying botanical evolution in southern Africa, and confirm the potential of using molecular phylogenies to date events for which other information is lacking or inconclusive.

  1. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    SciTech Connect

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; Broers, Hans Peter

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the

  2. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    DOE PAGES

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; ...

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is

  3. Age estimation using annulations in root cementum of human teeth: A comparison between longitudinal and cross sections

    PubMed Central

    Mallar, Kavya B; Girish, HC; Murgod, Sanjay; Kumar, BN Yathindra

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. Research indicates that cemental annulations may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of human skeleton for age estimation. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five teeth were sectioned longitudinally, and twenty-five teeth were cross-sectioned at the mid portion of the root. Sections were ground, mounted and viewed under a bright light microscope. The area selected for counting was photographed under ×10 objective, magnified 5 times; cemental lines were counted and added to the eruption age of that patient, to obtain the chronological age. The statistical software SAS 9.2, SPSS 15.0, Stata 10.1, MedCalc 9.0.1, Systat 12.0 and R environment ver.2.11.1 were used for the analysis of the data. Results: The P value comparing actual age and calculated age using longitudinal sections is moderately significant and the P value comparing actual age and calculated age in the age group of <30 years is significant. Interpretation and Conclusion: The middle third of tooth root was most suitable to count annulations. The cross sections are easier to count but longitudinal sections give more appropriate results on age estimation. Though the procedure predicts under assessment of age in the younger age group and over assessment of age in the older age group, it provides a close estimate of the actual age of an individual. It can be correlated with other age estimation methods for better reliability. PMID:26980973

  4. Estimating Computer-Based Training Development Times

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-10-14

    training facility. Participants were selected based on their willingness to participate without compensation , and the availability of historical data on...willingness to participate without monetary compensation . Selected projects had to have been completed within the last two years. The authors promised to...guidelines unknown Question 20: Is the development effor t being managed by an individual wi th past experience managi ng CBT project s? X RESPONSE 1

  5. Sample Based Unit Liter Dose Estimates

    SciTech Connect

    JENSEN, L.

    2000-04-13

    The Tank Waste Characterization Program has taken many core samples, grab samples, and auger samples from the single-shell and double-shell tanks during the past 10 years. Consequently, the amount of sample data available has increased, both in terms of quantity of sample results and the number of tanks characterized. More and better data is available than when the current radiological and toxicological source terms used in the Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) (FDH 1999a) and the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) (FDH 1999b) were developed. The Nuclear Safety and Licensing (NS and L) organization wants to use the new data to upgrade the radiological and toxicological source terms used in the BIO and FSAR. The NS and L organization requested assistance in producing a statistically based process for developing the source terms. This report describes the statistical techniques used and the assumptions made to support the development of a new radiological source term for liquid and solid wastes stored in single-shell and double-shell tanks. The results given in this report are a revision to similar results given in an earlier version of the document (Jensen and Wilmarth 1999). The main difference between the results in this document and the earlier version is that the dose conversion factors (DCF) for converting {mu}Ci/g or {mu}Ci/L to Sv/L (sieverts per liter) have changed. There are now two DCFs, one based on ICRP-68 and one based on ICW-71 (Brevick 2000).

  6. Snow Water Equivalent estimation based on satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macchiavello, G.; Pesce, F.; Boni, G.; Gabellani, S.

    2009-09-01

    The availability of remotely sensed images and them analysis is a powerful tool for monitoring the extension and typology of snow cover over territory where the in situ measurements are often difficult. Information on snow are fundamental for monitoring and forecasting the available water above all in regions at mid latitudes as Mediterranean where snowmelt may cause floods. The hydrological model requirements and the daily acquisitions of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), drove, in previous research activities, to the development of a method to automatically map the snow cover from multi-spectral images. But, the major hydrological parameter related to the snow pack is the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). This represents a direct measure of stored water in the basin. Because of it, the work was focused to the daily estimation of SWE from MODIS images. But, the complexity of this aim, based only on optical data, doesn’t find any information in literature. Since, from the spectral range of MODIS data it is not possible to extract a direct relation between spectral information and the SWE. Then a new method, respectful of the physic of the snow, was defined and developed. Reminding that the snow water equivalent is the product of the three factors as snow density, snow depth and the snow covered areas, the proposed approach works separately on each of these physical behaviors. Referring to the physical characteristic of snow, the snow density is function of the snow age, then it was studied a new method to evaluate this. Where, a module for snow age simulation from albedo information was developed. It activates an age counter updated by new snow information set to estimate snow age from zero accumulation status to the end of melting season. The height of the snow pack, can be retrieved by adopting relation between vegetation and snow depth distributions. This computes snow height distribution by the relation between snow cover fraction and the

  7. Ra isotopes in trees: Their application to the estimation of heartwood growth rates and tree ages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, Gary J.; Murray, Andrew S.; Brunskill, Gregg J.; Argent, Robert M.

    2006-12-01

    The difficulty in estimating growth rates and ages of tropical and warm-temperate tree species is well known. However, this information has many important environmental applications, including the proper management of native forests and calculating uptake and release of atmospheric carbon. We report the activities of Ra isotopes in the heartwood, sapwood and leaves of six tree species, and use the radial distribution of the 228Ra/226Ra activity ratio in the stem of the tree to estimate the rate of accretion of heartwood. A model is presented in which dissolved Ra in groundwater is taken up by tree roots, translocated to sapwood in a chemically mobile (ion-exchangeable) form, and rendered immobile as it is transferred to heartwood. Uptake of 232Th and 230Th (the parents of 228Ra and 226Ra) is negligible. The rate of heartwood accretion is determined from the radioactive decay of 228Ra (half-life 5.8 years) relative to long-lived 226Ra (half-life 1600 years), and is relevant to growth periods of up to 50 years. By extrapolating the heartwood accretion rate to the entire tree ring record the method also appears to provide realistic estimates of tree age. Eight trees were studied (three of known age, 72, 66 and 35 years), including three Australian hardwood eucalypt species, two mangrove species, and a softwood pine (P. radiata). The method indicates that the rate of growth ring formation is species and climate dependent, varying from 0.7 rings yr-1 for a river red gum (E. camaldulensis) to around 3 rings yr-1 for a tropical mangrove (X. mekongensis).

  8. Estimation of mechanical properties of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-10-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ``saturation`` impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common predicted lower-bound J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  9. Thermal aging of cast stainless steels in LWR systems: Estimation of mechanical properties

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-11-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ``saturation`` impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common ``lower-bound`` J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  10. Thermal aging of cast stainless steels in LWR systems: Estimation of mechanical properties

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-11-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The saturation'' impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  11. Vision-based range estimation using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Phillip N.; Sridhar, Banavar; Hussien, Bassam

    1992-01-01

    Pilot aiding during low-altitude flight depends on the ability to detect and locate obstacles near the helicopter's intended flightpath. Computer-vision-based methods provide one general approach for obstacle detection and range estimation. Several algorithms have been developed for this purpose, but have not been tested with actual flight data. This paper presents results obtained using helicopter flight data with a feature-based range estimation algorithm. A method for recursively estimating range using a Kalman filter with a monocular sequence of images and knowledge of the camera's motion is described. The helicopter flight experiment and four resulting datasets are discussed. Finally the performance of the range estimation algorithm is explored in detail based on comparison of the range estimates with true range measurements collected during the flight experiment.

  12. Vision-based range estimation using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Phillip N.; Sridhar, Banavar; Hussein, Bassam

    1992-01-01

    Pilot aiding during low-altitude flight depends on the ability to detect and locate obstacles near the helicopter's intended flightpath. Computer-vision-based methods provide one general approach for obstacle detection and range estimation. Several algorithms have been developed for this purpose, but have not been tested with actual flight data. This paper presents results obtained using helicopter flight data with a feature-based range estimation algorithm. A method for recursively estimating range using a Kalman filter with a monocular sequence of images and knowledge of the camera's motion is described. The helicopter flight experiment and one of four resulting datasets is briefly discussed. Finally the performance of the range estimation algorithm is explored based on comparison of the range estimates with true range measurements collected during the flight experiment.

  13. Localized Dictionaries Based Orientation Field Estimation for Latent Fingerprints.

    PubMed

    Xiao Yang; Jianjiang Feng; Jie Zhou

    2014-05-01

    Dictionary based orientation field estimation approach has shown promising performance for latent fingerprints. In this paper, we seek to exploit stronger prior knowledge of fingerprints in order to further improve the performance. Realizing that ridge orientations at different locations of fingerprints have different characteristics, we propose a localized dictionaries-based orientation field estimation algorithm, in which noisy orientation patch at a location output by a local estimation approach is replaced by real orientation patch in the local dictionary at the same location. The precondition of applying localized dictionaries is that the pose of the latent fingerprint needs to be estimated. We propose a Hough transform-based fingerprint pose estimation algorithm, in which the predictions about fingerprint pose made by all orientation patches in the latent fingerprint are accumulated. Experimental results on challenging latent fingerprint datasets show the proposed method outperforms previous ones markedly.

  14. Estimating conception statistics using gestational age information from NHS Numbers for Babies data.

    PubMed

    Chow, Yuan Huang; Dattani, Nirupa

    2009-01-01

    Conception statistics routinely published for England and Wales include pregnancies that result in one or more live- or stillbirths (a maternity) or an abortion. All live births are assumed to be 38 weeks gestation as information on gestation is not collected at birth registration. For the first time, gestational age information from the National Health Service (NHS) Numbers for Babies (NN4B) data has been used to re-estimate conception statistics for 2005. This shows that 72 per cent of conceptions leading to a maternity in fact have a gestati on period that differs from 38 weeks and most of these fall at either 37 or 39 weeks. The age-specific conception rates using this revised method are not significantly different to those produced using the current method.

  15. Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity Calculated from Age and Mean Arterial Blood Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Greve, Sara V.; Laurent, Stephan; Olsen, Michael H.

    2017-01-01

    In a recently published paper, Greve et al [J Hypertens 2016;34:1279-1289] investigate whether the estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (ePWV), calculated using an equation derived from the relationship between carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), age, and blood pressure, predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) as good as the measured cfPWV. Because ePWV predicts CVD as good as cfPWV, some might wonder whether ePWV could be replaced by cfPWV, which is a time-consuming measurement requiring an expensive apparatus. This question is addressed in this mini-review. PMID:28229052

  16. Estimation of the age at onset in spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 Cuban patients by survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Almaguer-Mederos, L E; Falcón, N S; Almira, Y R; Zaldivar, Y G; Almarales, D C; Góngora, E M; Herrera, M P; Batallán, K E; Armiñán, R R; Manresa, M V; Cruz, G S; Laffita-Mesa, J; Cyuz, T M; Chang, V; Auburger, G; Gispert, S; Pérez, L V

    2010-08-01

    Previous studies have investigated the close association that exists between CAG repeat number and the age at onset in SCA2 = spinocerebellar ataxia type 2. These studies have focused on affected individuals. To further characterize this association and estimate the risk of a carrier developing SCA2 at a particular age as a function of a specific CAG repeat size, we have analyzed a large group of 924 individuals, including 394 presymptomatic and 530 affected individuals with a CAG repeat length of 32-79 units. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we obtained cumulative probability curves for disease manifestation at a particular age for each CAG repeat length in the 34-45 range. These curves were significantly different (p < 0.001) and showed small overlap. All these information may be very valuable in predictive-testing programs, in the planning of studies for the identification of other genetic and environmental factors as modifiers of age at onset, and in the design of clinical trials for people at enlarged risk for SCA2.

  17. Age estimation in forensic sciences: Application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Alkass, K; Buchholz, B A; Ohtani, S; Yamamoto, T; Druid, H; Spalding, S L

    2009-11-02

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster, since the age at death, birth date and year of death, as well as gender, can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this paper we analyze teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that above-ground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) which have been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel and ten of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2=0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 0.6 {+-} 04 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 {+-} 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  18. Age estimation in forensic sciences: application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis.

    PubMed

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L

    2010-05-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ((14)C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R(2) = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 +/- 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 +/- 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  19. It takes nine days to iron a shirt: the development of cognitive estimation skills in school age children.

    PubMed

    Harel, Brian T; Cillessen, Antonius H N; Fein, Deborah A; Bullard, Sarah E; Aviv, Alyson

    2007-07-01

    Data are presented for 315 elementary school-aged children (K-11) who took the Biber Cognitive Estimation Test, a 20-item test with five estimation questions in each of four domains: quantity, time/duration, weight, and distance/length. Performance showed significant development yearly until around the age of nine years, with much slower development subsequently. No gender effects were found. Age and fund of knowledge correlated with overall test performance. Fund of information accounted for a large proportion of the variance in estimation skills for children 8 years and under, but not for children 9 years and older. Since estimation skills require retrieval and manipulation of relevant knowledge and inhibition of impulsive responding and are necessary in many everyday tasks, it was anticipated that this test may provide a useful measure of judgment and estimations and may correlate with other executive skills in school-aged children.

  20. Radii, masses, and ages of 18 bright stars using interferometry and new estimations of exoplanetary parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligi, R.; Creevey, O.; Mourard, D.; Crida, A.; Lagrange, A.-M.; Nardetto, N.; Perraut, K.; Schultheis, M.; Tallon-Bosc, I.; ten Brummelaar, T.

    2016-02-01

    Context. Accurate stellar parameters are needed in numerous domains of astrophysics. The position of stars on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram is an important indication of their structure and evolution, and it helps improve stellar models. Furthermore, the age and mass of stars hosting planets are required elements for studying exoplanetary systems. Aims: We aim at determining accurate parameters of a set of 18 bright exoplanet host and potential host stars from interferometric measurements, photometry, and stellar models. Methods: Using the VEGA/CHARA interferometer operating in the visible domain, we measured the angular diameters of 18 stars, ten of which host exoplanets. We combined them with their distances to estimate their radii. We used photometry to derive their bolometric flux and, then, their effective temperature and luminosity to place them on the H-R diagram. We then used the PARSEC models to derive their best fit ages and masses, with error bars derived from Monte Carlo calculations. Results: Our interferometric measurements lead to an average of 1.9% uncertainty on angular diameters and 3% on stellar radii. There is good agreement between measured and indirect estimations of angular diameters (either from SED fitting or from surface brightness relations) for main sequence (MS) stars, but not as good for more evolved stars. For each star, we provide a likelihood map in the mass-age plane; typically, two distinct sets of solutions appear (an old and a young age). The errors on the ages and masses that we provide account for the metallicity uncertainties, which are often neglected by other works. From measurements of its radius and density, we also provide the mass of 55 Cnc independently of models. From the stellar masses, we provide new estimates of semi-major axes and minimum masses of exoplanets with reliable uncertainties. We also derive the radius, density, and mass of 55 Cnc e, a super-Earth that transits its stellar host. Our exoplanetary

  1. SFM signal parameter estimation based on an enhanced DSFMT algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Lei; Li, Xingguang; Chen, Dianren

    2017-01-01

    It is proposed a SFM signal parameter estimation method based on the Enhanced DSFMT(EDSFMT) algorithm and provided the derivation of transformation formulas in this paper .Analysis and simulations were performed, which proved its capability of arbitrary multi-component SFM signal parameter estimation.

  2. Aging

    PubMed Central

    Park, Dong Choon

    2013-01-01

    Aging is initiated based on genetic and environmental factors that operate from the time of birth of organisms. Aging induces physiological phenomena such as reduction of cell counts, deterioration of tissue proteins, tissue atrophy, a decrease of the metabolic rate, reduction of body fluids, and calcium metabolism abnormalities, with final progression onto pathological aging. Despite the efforts from many researchers, the progression and the mechanisms of aging are not clearly understood yet. Therefore, the authors would like to introduce several theories which have gained attentions among the published theories up to date; genetic program theory, wear-and-tear theory, telomere theory, endocrine theory, DNA damage hypothesis, error catastrophe theory, the rate of living theory, mitochondrial theory, and free radical theory. Although there have been many studies that have tried to prevent aging and prolong life, here we introduce a couple of theories which have been proven more or less; food, exercise, and diet restriction. PMID:24653904

  3. Foot gait time series estimation based on support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Pant, Jeevan K; Krishnan, Sridhar

    2014-01-01

    A new algorithm for the estimation of stride interval time series from foot gait signals is proposed. The algorithm is based on the detection of beginning of heel strikes in the signal by using the support vector machine. Morphological operations are used to enhance the accuracy of detection. By taking backward differences of the detected beginning of heel strikes, stride interval time series is estimated. Simulation results are presented which shows that the proposed algorithm yields fairly accurate estimation of stride interval time series where estimation error for mean and standard deviation of the time series is of the order of 10(-4).

  4. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.; Nessel, James A.

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a Q/V-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  5. Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne Rose; Nessel, James A.; Miranda, Felix

    2014-01-01

    As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a QV-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

  6. Vision-based recursive estimation of rotorcraft obstacle locations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leblanc, D. J.; Mcclamroch, N. H.

    1992-01-01

    The authors address vision-based passive ranging during nap-of-the-earth (NOE) rotorcraft flight. They consider the problem of estimating the relative location of identifiable features on nearby obstacles, assuming a sequence of noisy camera images and imperfect measurements of the camera's translation and rotation. An iterated extended Kalman filter is used to provide recursive range estimation. The correspondence problem is simplified by predicting and tracking each feature's image within the Kalman filter framework. Simulation results are presented which show convergent estimates and generally successful feature point tracking. Estimation performance degrades for features near the optical axis and for accelerating motions. Image tracking is also sensitive to angular rate.

  7. Optical Flow-Based State Estimation for Guided Projectiles

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-06-01

    ARL-TR-7321 ● JUNE 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Optical Flow-Based State Estimation for Guided Projectiles by Moshe... Guided Projectiles by Moshe Hamaoui Weapons and Materials Research Directorate, ARL Approved for public release...

  8. Estimator Based Controller for High Speed Flywheel Magnetic Bearing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dever, Timothy P.; Brown, Gerald V.; Jansen, Ralph H.

    2002-01-01

    A flywheel system and its operator interface are described. Measurements of magnetic bearing negative stiffness are performed. Two digital magnetic bearing control algorithms (PD and estimator based) are defined and their implementations are described. Tuning of each controller is discussed. Comparison of the two controllers' stability, damping noise, and operating current are described. Results describing the superiority of the estimator-based controller are presented and discussed.

  9. Estimation of the entropy based on its polynomial representation.

    PubMed

    Vinck, Martin; Battaglia, Francesco P; Balakirsky, Vladimir B; Vinck, A J Han; Pennartz, Cyriel M A

    2012-05-01

    Estimating entropy from empirical samples of finite size is of central importance for information theory as well as the analysis of complex statistical systems. Yet, this delicate task is marred by intrinsic statistical bias. Here we decompose the entropy function into a polynomial approximation function and a remainder function. The approximation function is based on a Taylor expansion of the logarithm. Given n observations, we give an unbiased, linear estimate of the first n power series terms based on counting sets of k coincidences. For the remainder function we use nonlinear Bayesian estimation with a nearly flat prior distribution on the entropy that was developed by Nemenman, Shafee, and Bialek. Our simulations show that the combined entropy estimator has reduced bias in comparison to other available estimators.

  10. Estimation of the entropy based on its polynomial representation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinck, Martin; Battaglia, Francesco P.; Balakirsky, Vladimir B.; Vinck, A. J. Han; Pennartz, Cyriel M. A.

    2012-05-01

    Estimating entropy from empirical samples of finite size is of central importance for information theory as well as the analysis of complex statistical systems. Yet, this delicate task is marred by intrinsic statistical bias. Here we decompose the entropy function into a polynomial approximation function and a remainder function. The approximation function is based on a Taylor expansion of the logarithm. Given n observations, we give an unbiased, linear estimate of the first n power series terms based on counting sets of k coincidences. For the remainder function we use nonlinear Bayesian estimation with a nearly flat prior distribution on the entropy that was developed by Nemenman, Shafee, and Bialek. Our simulations show that the combined entropy estimator has reduced bias in comparison to other available estimators.

  11. A Laplacian-based MMSE estimator for speech enhancement

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bin; Loizou, Philipos C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper focuses on optimal estimators of the magnitude spectrum for speech enhancement. We present an analytical solution for estimating in the MMSE sense the magnitude spectrum when the clean speech DFT coefficients are modeled by a Laplacian distribution and the noise DFT coefficients are modeled by a Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we derive the MMSE estimator under speech presence uncertainty and a Laplacian statistical model. Results indicated that the Laplacian-based MMSE estimator yielded less residual noise in the enhanced speech than the traditional Gaussian-based MMSE estimator. Overall, the present study demonstrates that the assumed distribution of the DFT coefficients can have a significant effect on the quality of the enhanced speech. PMID:18037977

  12. Dental age estimation in the living after completion of third molar mineralization: new data for Gustafson's criteria.

    PubMed

    Timme, M; Timme, W H; Olze, A; Ottow, C; Ribbecke, S; Pfeiffer, H; Dettmeyer, R; Schmeling, A

    2017-03-01

    There is a need for dental age estimation methods after completion of the third molar mineralization. Degenerative dental characteristics appear to be suitable for forensic age diagnostics beyond the 18th year of life. In 2012, Olze et al. investigated the criteria studied by Gustafson using orthopantomograms. The objective of this study was to prove the applicability and reliability of this method with a large cohort and a wide age range, including older individuals. For this purpose, 2346 orthopantomograms of 1167 female and 1179 male Germans aged 15 to 70 years were reviewed. The characteristics of secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition were evaluated in all the mandibular premolars. The correlation of the individual characteristics with the chronological age was examined by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, in which the chronological age formed the dependent variable. Following those results, R (2) values amounted to 0.73 to 0.8; the standard error of estimate was 6.8 to 8.2 years. Fundamentally, the recommendation for conducting age estimations in the living by these methods can be shared. The values for the quality of the regression are, however, not precise enough for a reliable age estimation around regular retirement date ages. More precise regression formulae for the age group of 15 to 40 years of life are separately presented in this study. Further research should investigate the influence of ethnicity, dietary habits and modern health care on the degenerative characteristics in question.

  13. A knowledge-based approach to arterial stiffness estimation using the digital volume pulse.

    PubMed

    Jang, Dae-Geun; Farooq, Umar; Park, Seung-Hun; Goh, Choong-Won; Hahn, Minsoo

    2012-08-01

    We have developed a knowledge based approach for arterial stiffness estimation. The proposed new approach reliably estimates arterial stiffness based on the analysis of age and heart rate normalized reflected wave arrival time. The proposed new approach reduces cost, space, technical expertise, specialized equipment, complexity, and increases the usability compared to recently researched noninvasive arterial stiffness estimators. The proposed method consists of two main stages: pulse feature extraction and linear regression analysis. The new approach extracts the pulse features and establishes a linear prediction equation. On evaluating proposed methodology with pulse wave velocity (PWV) based arterial stiffness estimators, the proposed methodology offered the error rate of 8.36% for men and 9.52% for women, respectively. With such low error rates and increased benefits, the proposed approach could be usefully applied as low cost and effective solution for ubiquitous and home healthcare environments.

  14. Simplified Assay for Epigenetic Age Estimation in Whole Blood of Adults

    PubMed Central

    Vidal-Bralo, Laura; Lopez-Golan, Yolanda; Gonzalez, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Biological age is not always concordant with chronological age and the departures are of interest for understanding how diseases and environmental insults affect tissue function, organismal health, and life expectancy. The best-known biological age biomarker is telomere length, but there are more accurate biomarkers as the recently developed based in epigenetic, transcriptomic, or biochemical changes. The most accurate are the epigenetic biomarkers based on specific changes in DNA methylation referred as DNA methylation age measures (DmAM). Here, we have developed and validated a new DmAM that addresses some limitations of the previously available. The new DmAM includes the study in whole blood (WB) of 8 CpG sites selected as the most informative on a training set of 390 healthy subjects. The 8 CpG DmAM showed better accuracy than other DmAM based in few CpG in an independent validation set of 335 subjects. Results were not significantly influenced by sex, smoking, or variation in blood cell subpopulations. In addition, the new 8 CpG DmAM was amenable to study in a single multiplex reaction done with methylation-sensitive single-nucleotide primer extension (MS-SNuPE), a methodology based on commercially available reagents and run in capillary electrophoresis sequencers. In this way, the high cost of DNA methylation microarrays or of a pyrosequencer, which are needed for alternative DmAM, was avoided. Performance of the DmAM with MS-SNuPE was assessed in a set of 557 donors, showing high call rate (>97%), low CV (<3.3%) and high accuracy (Mean Absolute Deviation = 6.07 years). Therefore, the 8 CpG DmAM is a feasible and accurate tool for assessing the epigenetic component of biological age in blood of adults. PMID:27471517

  15. Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

  16. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  17. Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

    PubMed

    Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

    2013-09-01

    Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y).

  18. Estimation of median growth curves for children up two years old based on biresponse local linear estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamidah, Nur; Rifada, Marisa

    2016-03-01

    There is significant of the coeficient correlation between weight and height of the children. Therefore, the simultaneous model estimation is better than partial single response approach. In this study we investigate the pattern of sex difference in growth curve of children from birth up to two years of age in Surabaya, Indonesia based on biresponse model. The data was collected in a longitudinal representative sample of the Surabaya population of healthy children that consists of two response variables i.e. weight (kg) and height (cm). While a predictor variable is age (month). Based on generalized cross validation criterion, the modeling result based on biresponse model by using local linear estimator for boy and girl growth curve gives optimal bandwidth i.e 1.41 and 1.56 and the determination coefficient (R2) i.e. 99.99% and 99.98%,.respectively. Both boy and girl curves satisfy the goodness of fit criterion i.e..the determination coefficient tends to one. Also, there is difference pattern of growth curve between boy and girl. The boy median growth curves is higher than those of girl curve.

  19. Age estimation of archaeological remains using amino acid racemization in dental enamel: a comparison of morphological, biochemical, and known ages-at-death.

    PubMed

    Griffin, R C; Chamberlain, A T; Hotz, G; Penkman, K E H; Collins, M J

    2009-10-01

    The poor accuracy of most current methods for estimating age-at-death in adult human skeletal remains is among the key problems facing palaeodemography. In forensic science, this problem has been solved for unburnt remains by the development of a chemical method for age estimation, using amino acid racemization in collagen extracted from dentine. Previous application of racemization methods to archaeological material has proven problematic. This study presents the application to archaeological human remains of a new age estimation method utilizing amino acid racemization in a potentially closed system-the dental enamel. The amino acid composition and extent of racemization in enamel from two Medieval cemeteries (Newcastle Blackgate and Grantham, England) and from a documented age-at-death sample from a 19th century cemetery (Spitalfriedhof St Johann, Switzerland) were determined. Alterations in the amino acid composition were detected in all populations, indicating that diagenetic change had taken place. However, in the Medieval populations, these changes did not appear to have substantially affected the relationship between racemization and age-at-death, with a strong relationship being retained between aspartic acid racemization and the morphological age estimates. In contrast, there was a poor relationship between racemization and age in the post-medieval documented age-at-death population from Switzerland. This appears to be due to leaching of amino acids post-mortem, indicating that enamel is not functioning as a perfectly closed system. Isolation of amino acids from a fraction of enamel which is less susceptible to leaching may improve the success of amino acid racemization for archaeological age estimation.

  20. Systematically optimized coenzyme q10-loaded novel proniosomal formulation for treatment of photo-induced aging in mice: characterization, biocompatibility studies, biochemical estimations and anti-aging evaluation.

    PubMed

    Yadav, N K; Nanda, Sanju; Sharma, Gajanand; Katare, O P

    2016-01-01

    Environmental stress and advancing age is considered as the main cause of skin aging. However, environmental stress (especially UV radiations) accelerates the process of skin aging by manifolds. Coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10), an essential compound of cellular bioenergetics also acts as a strong antioxidant and protects the body against aging. High molecular weight and structure specific lipophilic nature of this molecule is a bottle neck in effective delivery through topical route. Preparation of a novel proniosomal (PN) gel formulation of CoQ10 employing systematic design of experiment (DoE) approach is a step ahead in transcending the constraints of the topical delivery. I-optimal mixture design was employed for systematic optimization of proniosomal formulation and evaluation of experimental data was performed for entrapment efficiency and in vitro release. Hydration of PN gel formulation with phosphate buffer (pH 7.5) results in submicron niosomes vesicles of spherical shape, which appeared dark against bright surroundings in TEM study. Animal skin was treated with UV radiations followed by treatment of PN gel CoQ10 and conventional CoQ10 present in a gel base. The effectiveness of the treatment was evaluated on the basis of biochemical estimation and histopathological studies. By using CoQ10 PN gel formulation, levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CA), glutathione (GSH) and total proteins were restored by 81.3%, 72.1%, 74.8 and 77.1%, respectively to that of control group. Histopathological studies revealed better protection of skin treated with CoQ10 PN gel compared to free CoQ10. Prepared PN gel was found undisturbing with the normal histology hence, tolerated by animal skin compare to conventional gel.

  1. Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

    PubMed

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

    2015-05-18

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

  2. Use of free amino acid composition of shell to estimate age since death of recent molluscs

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, A.M.; Powell, E.N.; Stanton, R.J. Jr.

    1985-01-01

    An understanding of death assemblage formation requires a measurement of time since death of constituent individuals. A new dating technique based on the measurement of the free amino acid content of mollusc shells has been developed which is inexpensive, rapid, and effective in dating time scales of a few decades to a few centuries. Since the breakdown of proteins of the matrix of mollusc shells begins soon after deposition, free amino acids gradually increase with shell age. The measurement of these can be used to determine the relative age among a group of shells. The future use of this technique depends on a clearer understanding of how free amino acid accumulation rate varies with age and species and developing effective calibration methods so that absolute rather than relative ages can be readily obtained. Three species were distributed widely enough for use - Rangia cuneata, Tagelus plebeius, and Phacoides pectinatus. A good relationship between free amino acids and relative age was present in all three species over the entire core; however some species and some amino acid were superior to others. Rangia cuneata produced the best correlation because it is epifaunal and thus died at the sediment surface rather than over an extended depth range and, also perhaps, because amino acid accumulation rates were more linear.

  3. [Estimation of the biological age in males of the taiga tick (Ixodes persulcatus: Ixodinae) by fat reserves in the midgut].

    PubMed

    Grigor'eva, L A

    2012-01-01

    Some criteria for the estimation of the biological and calendar age by the fat storage in midgut cells of Ixodes persulcatus males were established on the basis of examination of ticks from the laboratory culture.

  4. [Soil moisture estimation model based on multiple vegetation index].

    PubMed

    Wu, Hai-long; Yu, Xin-xiao; Zhang, Zhen-ming; Zhang, Yan

    2014-06-01

    Estimating soil moisture conveniently and exactly is a hot issues in water resource monitoring among agriculture and forestry. Estimating soil moisture based on vegetation index has been recognized and applied widely. 8 vegetation indexes were figured out based on the hyper-spectral data measured by portable spectrometer. The higher correlation indexes among 8 vegetation indexes and surface vegetation temperature were selected by Gray Relative Analysis method (GRA). Then, these selected indexes were analyzed using Multiple Linear Regression to establish soil moisture estimation model based on multiple vegetation indexes, and the model accuracy was evaluated. The accuracy evaluation indicated that the fitting was satisfied and the significance was 0.000 (P < 0.001). High correlation was turned out between estimated and measured soil moisture with R2 reached 0.636 1 and RMSE 2.149 9. This method introduced multiple vegetation indexes into soil water content estimating over micro scale by non-contact measuring method using portable spectrometer. The exact estimation could be an appropriate replacement for remote sensing inversion and direct measurement. The model could estimate soil moisture quickly and accurately, and provide theory and technology reference for water resource management in agriculture and forestry.

  5. Age diagnosis based on incremental lines in dental cementum: a critical reflection.

    PubMed

    Grosskopf, Birgit; McGlynn, George

    2011-01-01

    Age estimation based on the counting of incremental lines in dental cementum is a method frequently used for the estimation of the age at death for humans in bioarchaeology, and increasingly, forensic anthropology. Assessment of applicability, precision, and method reproducibility continue to be the focus of research in this area, and are occasionally accompanied by significant controversy. Differences in methodological techniques for data collection (e.g. number of sections, factor of magnification for counting or interpreting "outliers") are presented. Potential influences on method reliability are discussed, especially for their applicability in forensic contexts.

  6. Compressive Estimation and Imaging Based on Autoregressive Models.

    PubMed

    Testa, Matteo; Magli, Enrico

    2016-11-01

    Compressed sensing (CS) is a fast and efficient way to obtain compact signal representations. Oftentimes, one wishes to extract some information from the available compressed signal. Since CS signal recovery is typically expensive from a computational point of view, it is inconvenient to first recover the signal and then extract the information. A much more effective approach consists in estimating the information directly from the signal's linear measurements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for compressive estimation of autoregressive (AR) process parameters based on ad hoc sensing matrix construction. More in detail, we introduce a compressive least square estimator for AR(p) parameters and a specific AR(1) compressive Bayesian estimator. We exploit the proposed techniques to address two important practical problems. The first is compressive covariance estimation for Toeplitz structured covariance matrices where we tackle the problem with a novel parametric approach based on the estimated AR parameters. The second is a block-based compressive imaging system, where we introduce an algorithm that adaptively calculates the number of measurements to be acquired for each block from a set of initial measurements based on its degree of compressibility. We show that the proposed techniques outperform the state-of-the-art methods for these two problems.

  7. Accurate genome relative abundance estimation based on shotgun metagenomic reads.

    PubMed

    Xia, Li C; Cram, Jacob A; Chen, Ting; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimation of microbial community composition based on metagenomic sequencing data is fundamental for subsequent metagenomics analysis. Prevalent estimation methods are mainly based on directly summarizing alignment results or its variants; often result in biased and/or unstable estimates. We have developed a unified probabilistic framework (named GRAMMy) by explicitly modeling read assignment ambiguities, genome size biases and read distributions along the genomes. Maximum likelihood method is employed to compute Genome Relative Abundance of microbial communities using the Mixture Model theory (GRAMMy). GRAMMy has been demonstrated to give estimates that are accurate and robust across both simulated and real read benchmark datasets. We applied GRAMMy to a collection of 34 metagenomic read sets from four metagenomics projects and identified 99 frequent species (minimally 0.5% abundant in at least 50% of the data-sets) in the human gut samples. Our results show substantial improvements over previous studies, such as adjusting the over-estimated abundance for Bacteroides species for human gut samples, by providing a new reference-based strategy for metagenomic sample comparisons. GRAMMy can be used flexibly with many read assignment tools (mapping, alignment or composition-based) even with low-sensitivity mapping results from huge short-read datasets. It will be increasingly useful as an accurate and robust tool for abundance estimation with the growing size of read sets and the expanding database of reference genomes.

  8. Gene Expression-Based Biomarkers for Anopheles gambiae Age Grading

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Mei-Hui; Marinotti, Osvaldo; Zhong, Daibin; James, Anthony A.; Walker, Edward; Guda, Tom; Kweka, Eliningaya J.; Githure, John; Yan, Guiyun

    2013-01-01

    Information on population age structure of mosquitoes under natural conditions is fundamental to the understanding of vectorial capacity and crucial for assessing the impact of vector control measures on malaria transmission. Transcriptional profiling has been proposed as a method for predicting mosquito age for Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes, however, whether this new method is adequate for natural conditions is unknown. This study tests the applicability of transcriptional profiling for age-grading of Anopheles gambiae, the most important malaria vector in Africa. The transcript abundance of two An. gambiae genes, AGAP009551 and AGAP011615, was measured during aging under laboratory and field conditions in three mosquito strains. Age-dependent monotonic changes in transcript levels were observed in all strains evaluated. These genes were validated as age-grading biomarkers using the mark, release and recapture (MRR) method. The MRR method determined a good correspondence between actual and predicted age, and thus demonstrated the value of age classifications derived from the transcriptional profiling of these two genes. The technique was used to establish the age structure of mosquito populations from two malaria-endemic areas in western Kenya. The population age structure determined by the transcriptional profiling method was consistent with that based on mosquito parity. This study demonstrates that the transcription profiling method based on two genes is valuable for age determination of natural mosquitoes, providing a new approach for determining a key life history trait of malaria vectors. PMID:23936017

  9. Model-based approach for elevator performance estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban, E.; Salgado, O.; Iturrospe, A.; Isasa, I.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, a dynamic model for an elevator installation is presented in the state space domain. The model comprises both the mechanical and the electrical subsystems, including the electrical machine and a closed-loop field oriented control. The proposed model is employed for monitoring the condition of the elevator installation. The adopted model-based approach for monitoring employs the Kalman filter as an observer. A Kalman observer estimates the elevator car acceleration, which determines the elevator ride quality, based solely on the machine control signature and the encoder signal. Finally, five elevator key performance indicators are calculated based on the estimated car acceleration. The proposed procedure is experimentally evaluated, by comparing the key performance indicators calculated based on the estimated car acceleration and the values obtained from actual acceleration measurements in a test bench. Finally, the proposed procedure is compared with the sliding mode observer.

  10. Improving quantum state estimation with mutually unbiased bases.

    PubMed

    Adamson, R B A; Steinberg, A M

    2010-07-16

    When used in quantum state estimation, projections onto mutually unbiased bases have the ability to maximize information extraction per measurement and to minimize redundancy. We present the first experimental demonstration of quantum state tomography of two-qubit polarization states to take advantage of mutually unbiased bases. We demonstrate improved state estimation as compared to standard measurement strategies and discuss how this can be understood from the structure of the measurements we use. We experimentally compared our method to the standard state estimation method for three different states and observe that the infidelity was up to 1.84 ± 0.06 times lower by using our technique than it was by using standard state estimation methods.

  11. Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces

    PubMed Central

    Tuononen, Ari J.

    2009-01-01

    Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

  12. An MME-based attitude estimator using vector observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis

    1995-05-01

    In this paper, an optimal batch estimator and filter based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) approach is developed for three-axis stabilized spacecraft. Three different MME algorithms are developed. The first algorithm estimates the attitude of a spacecraft using rate measurements. The second algorithm estimates the attitude without using rate measurements. The absence of rate data may be a result of intentional design or from unexpected failure of existing gyros. The third algorithm determines input-torque modeling error trajectories. All of the algorithms developed in this paper use attitude sensors (e.g., three-axis magnetometers, sun sensors, star trackers, etc.). Results using these new algorithms indicate that an MME-based approach accurately estimates the attitude, rate, and input torque trajectories of an actual spacecraft.

  13. MME-based attitude dynamics identification and estimation for SAMPEX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Depena, Juan; Crassidis, John L.; Mcpartland, Michael D.; Meyer, Thomas J.; Mook, D. Joseph

    1994-01-01

    A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. Problems arise since typical attitude estimation is accomplished by filtering measurements of both attitude and attitude rates. Rates are nearly always sampled much more densely than are attitudes. Thus, the absence/loss of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The proposed approach is based on the minimum model error (MME) optimal estimation strategy, which has been successfully applied to estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems which are relatively sparsely and/or noisily measured. The MME estimates may be used to construct accurate models of the system dynamics (i.e. perform system model identification). Thus, an MME-based approach directly addresses the problems created by absence of attitude rate measurements.

  14. Cycle life estimation of lithium secondary battery by extrapolation method and accelerated aging test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takei, K.; Kumai, K.; Kobayashi, Y.; Miyashiro, H.; Terada, N.; Iwahori, T.; Tanaka, T.

    The testing methods to estimate the life cycles of lithium ion batteries for a short period, have been developed using a commercialized cell with LiCoO 2/hard carbon cell system. The degradation reactions with increasing cycles were suggested to occur predominantly above 4 V from the results of operating voltage range divided tests. In the case of the extrapolation method using limited cycle data, the straight line approximation was useful as the cycle performance has the linearity, but the error is at most 40% in using the initial short cycle data. In the case of the accelerated aging tests using the following stress factors, the charge and/or discharge rate, large accelerated coefficients were obtained in the high charge rate and the high temperature thermal stress.

  15. Integrated Diagnostic and Prognostic Tools for Residual Life Estimation in Aging Nuclear Power Plant Components

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Meyer, Ryan M.; Bond, Leonard J.; Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Henager, Charles H.

    2011-06-01

    Recent events in Japan have focused renewed attention on the safe operation of light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs). A central issue in safe, long-term operations of existing and planned NPPs is the early detection and monitoring of significant materials degradation. Materials aging and degradation in passive components is expected to be the key factor in determining the operational life of an NPP and may limit long-term operations in the current LWR fleet. Methods for detecting and assessing the degradation state in NPP structural materials, followed by approaches to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of the component, are therefore necessary for safe, long-term operations. This paper explores advanced diagnostic and prognostic approaches to detecting material degradation, and then determining RUL given the current material state.

  16. Virtual Estimator for Piecewise Linear Systems Based on Observability Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Morales-Morales, Cornelio; Adam-Medina, Manuel; Cervantes, Ilse; Vela-Valdés and, Luis G.; García Beltrán, Carlos Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes a virtual sensor for piecewise linear systems based on observability analysis that is in function of a commutation law related with the system's outpu. This virtual sensor is also known as a state estimator. Besides, it presents a detector of active mode when the commutation sequences of each linear subsystem are arbitrary and unknown. For the previous, this article proposes a set of virtual estimators that discern the commutation paths of the system and allow estimating their output. In this work a methodology in order to test the observability for piecewise linear systems with discrete time is proposed. An academic example is presented to show the obtained results. PMID:23447007

  17. Estimation of Ultrafilter Performance Based on Characterization Data

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Reid A.; Geeting, John GH; Daniel, Richard C.

    2007-08-02

    Due to limited availability of test data with actual waste samples, a method was developed to estimate expected filtration performance based on physical characterization data for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. A test with simulated waste was analyzed to demonstrate that filtration of this class of waste is consistent with a concentration polarization model. Subsequently, filtration data from actual waste samples were analyzed to demonstrate that centrifuged solids concentrations provide a reasonable estimate of the limiting concentration for filtration.

  18. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles.

    PubMed

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de Los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR.

  19. Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles

    PubMed Central

    Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E.; Flórez, Julián

    2016-01-01

    In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR. PMID:27403044

  20. ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment): A Research Model to Improve the Governance of Prescribing Funds in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Favato, Giampiero; Mariani, Paolo; Mills, Roger W.; Capone, Alessandro; Pelagatti, Matteo; Pieri, Vasco; Marcobelli, Alberico; Trotta, Maria G.; Zucchi, Alberto; Catapano, Alberico L.

    2007-01-01

    Background The primary objective of this study was to make the first step in the modelling of pharmaceutical demand in Italy, by deriving a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices. The experimental model was called ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment). Methods and Major Findings Individual prescription costs and demographic data referred to 3,175,691 Italian subjects and were collected directly from three Regional Health Authorities over the 12-month period between October 2004 and September 2005. The mean annual prescription cost per individual was similar for males (196.13 euro) and females (195.12 euro). After 65 years of age, the mean prescribing costs for males were significantly higher than females. On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25–34 year-old subject if male, 8 times if female. Subjects over 65 years of age (22% of total population) accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs. The weightings explained approximately 90% of the evolution of total prescribing costs, in spite of the pricing and reimbursement turbulences affecting Italy in the 2000–2005 period. The ASSET weightings were able to explain only about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals. Conclusions If mainly idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners causes the unexplained variations, the introduction of capitation-based budgets would gradually move practices with high prescribing costs towards the national average. It is also possible, though, that the unexplained individual variation in prescribing costs is the result of differences in the clinical characteristics or socio-economic conditions of practice populations. If this is the case, capitation-based budgets may lead to unfair distribution of resources. The ASSET age/sex weightings should be used as a guide, not as the ultimate determinant, for an equitable allocation of prescribing resources to

  1. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan; Zeng, Lingzao; Wu, Laosheng

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

  2. A novel SURE-based criterion for parametric PSF estimation.

    PubMed

    Xue, Feng; Blu, Thierry

    2015-02-01

    We propose an unbiased estimate of a filtered version of the mean squared error--the blur-SURE (Stein's unbiased risk estimate)--as a novel criterion for estimating an unknown point spread function (PSF) from the degraded image only. The PSF is obtained by minimizing this new objective functional over a family of Wiener processings. Based on this estimated blur kernel, we then perform nonblind deconvolution using our recently developed algorithm. The SURE-based framework is exemplified with a number of parametric PSF, involving a scaling factor that controls the blur size. A typical example of such parametrization is the Gaussian kernel. The experimental results demonstrate that minimizing the blur-SURE yields highly accurate estimates of the PSF parameters, which also result in a restoration quality that is very similar to the one obtained with the exact PSF, when plugged into our recent multi-Wiener SURE-LET deconvolution algorithm. The highly competitive results obtained outline the great potential of developing more powerful blind deconvolution algorithms based on SURE-like estimates.

  3. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-01-01

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one’s thermal environment. PMID:27023538

  4. Estimation of Cometary Rotation Parameters Based on Camera Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spindler, Karlheinz

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.

  5. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-03-23

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one's thermal environment.

  6. Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

  7. Estimating the Burden of Leptospirosis among Febrile Subjects Aged below 20 Years in Kampong Cham Communities, Cambodia, 2007-2009

    PubMed Central

    Hem, Sopheak; Ly, Sowath; Votsi, Irene; Vogt, Florian; Asgari, Nima; Buchy, Philippe; Heng, Seiha; Picardeau, Mathieu; Sok, Touch; Ly, Sovann; Huy, Rekol; Guillard, Bertrand; Cauchemez, Simon; Tarantola, Arnaud

    2016-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis is an emerging but neglected public health challenge in the Asia/Pacific Region with an annual incidence estimated at 10–100 per 100,000 population. No accurate data, however, are available for at-risk rural Cambodian communities. Method We conducted anonymous, unlinked testing for IgM antibodies to Leptospira spp. on paired sera of Cambodian patients <20 years of age between 2007–2009 collected through active, community-based surveillance for febrile illnesses in a convenience sample of 27 rural and semi-rural villages in four districts of Kampong Cham province, Cambodia. Leptospirosis testing was done on paired serological samples negative for Dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Chikungunya viruses after random selection. Convalescent samples found positive while initial samples were negative were considered as proof of acute infection. We then applied a mathematical model to estimate the risk of fever caused by leptospirosis, dengue or other causes in rural Cambodia. Results A total of 630 samples are coming from a randomly selected subset of 2358 samples. IgM positive were found on the convalescent serum sample, among which 100 (15.8%) samples were IgM negative on an earlier sample. Seventeen of these 100 seroconversions were confirmed using a Microagglutination Test. We estimated the probability of having a fever due to leptospirosis at 1. 03% (95% Credible Interval CI: 0. 95%–1. 22%) per semester. In comparison, this probability was 2. 61% (95% CI: 2. 55%, 2. 83%) for dengue and 17. 65% (95% CI: 17. 49%, 18. 08%) for other causes. Conclusion Our data from febrile cases aged below 20 years suggest that the burden of leptospirosis is high in rural Cambodian communities. This is especially true during the rainy season, even in the absence of identified epidemics. PMID:27043016

  8. Estimation of nitrogen maintenance requirements and potential for nitrogen deposition in fast-growing chickens depending on age and sex.

    PubMed

    Samadi, F; Liebert, F

    2006-08-01

    Experiments were conducted to estimate daily N maintenance requirements (NMR) and the genetic potential for daily N deposition (ND(max)T) in fast-growing chickens depending on age and sex. In N-balance studies, 144 male and 144 female chickens (Cobb 500) were utilized in 4 consecutive age periods (I: 10 to 25 d; II: 30 to 45 d; III: 50 to 65 d; and IV: 70 to 85 d). The experimental diets contained high-protein soybean meal and crystalline amino acids as protein sources and 6 graded levels of protein supply (N1 = 6.6%; N2 = 13.0%; N3 = 19.6%; N4 = 25.1%; N5 = 31.8%; and N6 = 37.6% CP in DM). The connection between N intake and total N excretion was fitted for NMR determination by an exponential function. The average NMR value (252 mg of N/BW(kg)0.67 per d) was applied for further calculation of ND(max)T as the threshold value of the function between N intake and daily N balance. For estimating the threshold value, the principle of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm within the SPSS program (Version 11.5) was applied. As a theoretical maximum for ND(max)T, 3,592, 2,723, 1,702, and 1,386 mg of N/BW(kg)0.67 per d for male and 3,452, 2,604, 1,501, and 1,286 mg of N/BW(kg)0.67 per d for female fast-growing chickens (corresponding to age periods I to IV) were obtained. The determined model parameters were the precondition for modeling of the amino acid requirement based on an exponential N-utilization model and depended on performance and dietary amino acid efficiency. This procedure will be further developed and applied in the subsequent paper.

  9. Improved age estimates for key Late Quaternary European tephra horizons in the RESET lattice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Albert, Paul G.; Blockley, Simon P. E.; Hardiman, Mark; Housley, Rupert A.; Lane, Christine S.; Lee, Sharen; Matthews, Ian P.; Smith, Victoria C.; Lowe, John J.

    2015-06-01

    The research project 'Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions' (RESET) used tephra layers to tie together and synchronise the chronologies of stratigraphic records at archaeological and environmental sites. With the increasing importance of tephra as chronological markers in sedimentary sequences, both in this project and more generally, comes a requirement to have good estimates for the absolute age of these volcanic horizons. This paper summarises the chronology of the key tephra in the RESET tephra lattice in the time range 10-60 ka BP, from the existing literature, from papers produced as part of the RESET project, and reanalysis conducted for this paper. The paper outlines the chronological approach taken to the dating of tephra within the RESET project, and the basis for further work, as part of the INTIMATE (INTegrating Ice core MArine and TErrestrial records) initiative. For each of the tephra layers in the lattice, the existing literature is discussed and, where relevant date estimates updated using the latest radiocarbon calibration curves (IntCal13 and Marine13) and methods. Maps show the approximate extent of tephra finds, giving a visual indication of the coverage of the lattice in different time-periods.

  10. Revised age estimates of Brunhes palaeomagnetic events - Support for a link between geomagnetism and eccentricity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.

    1981-01-01

    Revisions in the dates of reported geomagnetic excursions during the Brunhes Epoch are proposed in light of possible correlations between a section at Gioia Tauro, Italy, deep-sea cores, a core from Lake Biwa, Japan, and some lava flows. The anomalously long, double Blake Event reported at Gioia Tauro is here correlated with the Blake Event (approximately 110 kyr) and the Biwa 1 event (180 plus or minus 5 kyr); an hiatus may be present in the section between these two events. The alpha event at Gioia Tauro is correlated with the Biwa 2 event at about 295 kyr; the beta event with the 'Biwa 3' event at about 400 kyr; the gamma event with the Snake River event at 480 plus or minus 50; and the delta event, not recorded elsewhere, is estimated to have occurred at approximately 620 kyr. These proposed refinements in the age estimates of the excursions suggest an approximately 100 kyr cyclicity. If the events are real and the revised dating is correct, the timing of the geomagnetic events seems to coincide with times of peak eccentricity of the earth's orbit, suggesting a causal connection.

  11. HydrogeoEstimatorXL: an Excel-based tool for estimating hydraulic gradient magnitude and direction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devlin, J. F.; Schillig, P. C.

    2017-01-01

    HydrogeoEstimatorXL is a free software tool for the interpretation of flow systems based on spatial hydrogeological field data from multi-well networks. It runs on the familiar Excel spreadsheet platform. The program accepts well location coordinates and hydraulic head data, and returns an analysis of the area flow system in two dimensions based on (1) a single best fit plane of the potentiometric surface and (2) three-point estimators, i.e., well triplets assumed to bound planar sections of the potentiometric surface. The software produces graphical outputs including histograms of hydraulic gradient magnitude and direction, groundwater velocity (based on a site average hydraulic properties), as well as mapped renditions of the estimator triangles and the velocity vectors associated with them. Within the software, a transect can be defined and the mass discharge of a groundwater contaminant crossing the transect can be estimated. This kind of analysis is helpful in gaining an overview of a site's hydrogeology, for problem definition, and as a review tool to check the reasonableness of other independent calculations.

  12. Age estimation of immature human skeletal remains using the post-natal development of the occipital bone.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, H F V; Gomes, J; Campanacho, V; Marinho, L

    2013-09-01

    Whenever age cannot be estimated from dental formation in immature human skeletal remains, other methods are required. In the post-natal period, development of the skeleton provides alternative age indicators, namely, those associated with skeletal maturity of the cranium. This study wishes to document the age at which the various ossification centres in the occipital bone fuse and provide readily available developmental probabilistic information for use in age estimation. A sample of 64 identified immature skeletons between birth and 8 years of age from the Lisbon collection was used (females = 29, males = 35). Results show that fusion occurs first in the posterior intra-occipital synchondrosis and between the jugular and condylar limbs of the lateral occipital to form the hypoglossal canal (1-4 years), followed by the anterior intra-occipital (3-7 years). Fusion of the post-natal occipital does not show differences in timing between males and females. Relative to other published sources, this study documents first and last ages of fusion of several ossification centres and the posterior probabilities of age given a certain stage of fusion. Given the least amount of overlap in stages of fusion, the closure of the hypoglossal canal provides the narrowest estimated age with the highest probability of age.

  13. Estimated acceptance of HPV vaccination among Italian women aged 18-26 years.

    PubMed

    Giambi, Cristina; Donati, Serena; Declich, Silvia; Salmaso, Stefania; Ciofi Degli Atti, Marta Luisa; Alibrandi, Maria Pia; Brezzi, Silvia; Carozzi, Francesca; Collina, Natalina; Franchi, Daniela; Lattanzi, Amedeo; Meda, Margherita; Minna, Maria Carmela; Nannini, Roberto; Scherillo, Isabella; Bella, Antonino

    2011-10-26

    In Italy vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) was introduced in the national immunization programme in 2007; the primary target for this vaccination is 11-year-old females, whereas vaccination for older age groups is still a matter of debate. This project was carried out in the period 2007-2009 to estimate the acceptance rate among 18-26-year-old, to whom free-of-charge vaccination was actively offered. Socio-demographic factors associated with acceptance were also investigated. A sample of 1159 women was randomly selected from resident population lists of 10 Local Health Units in 6 of Italy's 21 Regions; 1032 women were deemed eligible for the study. Of the eligible women, 580 received at least one vaccine dose for an acceptance rate of 56.2% and 542 received all three vaccine doses (52.6%). The acceptance rate was significantly higher for: residents of northern and central Italy (OR(adj)=2.22, 95%CI 1.64-3.01 and OR(adj)=1.77, 95%CI, 1.20-2.61 respectively), compared to southern Italy; women with a high educational level (OR(adj)=1.41; 95%CI: 1.02-1.93); and students (OR(adj)=1.64; 95%CI: 1.13-2.37). The low immunization rate highlights the difficulties of reaching young adult women, although the current coverage rates observed in the primary target population of HPV vaccination campaign (64%) emphasize that achieving high coverage rates is challenging also in younger age groups. Our results suggest that it would be premature to extend the active free-of-charge offer of HPV vaccination to older women and that efforts should be focused on the priority target, considering that the objective of 95% coverage established for this age group is still far from being attained.

  14. Fuzzy case based reasoning in sports facilities unit cost estimating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zima, Krzysztof

    2016-06-01

    This article presents an example of estimating costs in the early phase of the project using fuzzy case-based reasoning. The fragment of database containing descriptions and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The formulas used in Case Based Reasoning method were presented, too. The article presents similarity measurement using a few formulas, including fuzzy similarity. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a fuzzy number of unit cost of construction work.

  15. Mapping of Planetary Surface Age Based on Crater Statistics Obtained by AN Automatic Detection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salih, A. L.; Mühlbauer, M.; Grumpe, A.; Pasckert, J. H.; Wöhler, C.; Hiesinger, H.

    2016-06-01

    The analysis of the impact crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) is a well-established approach to the determination of the age of planetary surfaces. Classically, estimation of the CSFD is achieved by manual crater counting and size determination in spacecraft images, which, however, becomes very time-consuming for large surface areas and/or high image resolution. With increasing availability of high-resolution (nearly) global image mosaics of planetary surfaces, a variety of automated methods for the detection of craters based on image data and/or topographic data have been developed. In this contribution a template-based crater detection algorithm is used which analyses image data acquired under known illumination conditions. Its results are used to establish the CSFD for the examined area, which is then used to estimate the absolute model age of the surface. The detection threshold of the automatic crater detection algorithm is calibrated based on a region with available manually determined CSFD such that the age inferred from the manual crater counts corresponds to the age inferred from the automatic crater detection results. With this detection threshold, the automatic crater detection algorithm can be applied to a much larger surface region around the calibration area. The proposed age estimation method is demonstrated for a Kaguya Terrain Camera image mosaic of 7.4 m per pixel resolution of the floor region of the lunar crater Tsiolkovsky, which consists of dark and flat mare basalt and has an area of nearly 10,000 km2. The region used for calibration, for which manual crater counts are available, has an area of 100 km2. In order to obtain a spatially resolved age map, CSFDs and surface ages are computed for overlapping quadratic regions of about 4.4 x 4.4 km2 size offset by a step width of 74 m. Our constructed surface age map of the floor of Tsiolkovsky shows age values of typically 3.2-3.3 Ga, while for small regions lower (down to 2.9 Ga) and higher

  16. A Channelization-Based DOA Estimation Method for Wideband Signals

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Rui; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method for wideband signals with sensor arrays. The proposed method splits the wideband array output into multiple frequency sub-channels and estimates the signal parameters using a digital channelization receiver. Based on the output sub-channels, a channelization-based incoherent signal subspace method (Channelization-ISM) and a channelization-based test of orthogonality of projected subspaces method (Channelization-TOPS) are proposed. Channelization-ISM applies narrowband signal subspace methods on each sub-channel independently. Then the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of the estimated DOAs from each sub-channel gives the final result. Channelization-TOPS measures the orthogonality between the signal and the noise subspaces of the output sub-channels to estimate DOAs. The proposed channelization-based method isolates signals in different bandwidths reasonably and improves the output SNR. It outperforms the conventional ISM and TOPS methods on estimation accuracy and dynamic range, especially in real environments. Besides, the parallel processing architecture makes it easy to implement on hardware. A wideband digital array radar (DAR) using direct wideband radio frequency (RF) digitization is presented. Experiments carried out in a microwave anechoic chamber with the wideband DAR are presented to demonstrate the performance. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:27384566

  17. CALIBRATING C-IV-BASED BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATORS

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Shin, Jaejin; Denney, Kelly D. E-mail: woo@astro.snu.ac.kr E-mail: kelly@dark-cosmology.dk

    2013-06-20

    We present the single-epoch black hole mass estimators based on the C IV {lambda}1549 broad emission line, using the updated sample of the reverberation-mapped active galactic nuclei and high-quality UV spectra. By performing multi-component spectral fitting analysis, we measure the C IV line widths (FWHM{sub C{sub IV}} and line dispersion, {sigma}{sub C{sub IV}}) and the continuum luminosity at 1350 A (L{sub 1350}) to calibrate the C-IV-based mass estimators. By comparing with the H{beta} reverberation-based masses, we provide new mass estimators with the best-fit relationships, i.e., M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.50{+-}0.07}{sigma}{sub C{sub IV}{sup 2}} and M{sub BH}{proportional_to}L{sub 1350}{sup 0.52{+-}0.09} FWHM{sub C{sub IV}{sup 0.56{+-}0.48}}. The new C-IV-based mass estimators show significant mass-dependent systematic difference compared to the estimators commonly used in the literature. Using the published Sloan Digital Sky Survey QSO catalog, we show that the black hole mass of high-redshift QSOs decreases on average by {approx}0.25 dex if our recipe is adopted.

  18. Calibrating C-IV-based Black Hole Mass Estimators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Daeseong; Woo, Jong-Hak; Denney, Kelly D.; Shin, Jaejin

    2013-06-01

    We present the single-epoch black hole mass estimators based on the C IV λ1549 broad emission line, using the updated sample of the reverberation-mapped active galactic nuclei and high-quality UV spectra. By performing multi-component spectral fitting analysis, we measure the C IV line widths (FWHMC IV and line dispersion, σC IV ) and the continuum luminosity at 1350 Å (L 1350) to calibrate the C-IV-based mass estimators. By comparing with the Hβ reverberation-based masses, we provide new mass estimators with the best-fit relationships, i.e., M_BH \\propto L_{1350}^{0.50+/- 0.07} \\sigma _{C\\,\\scriptsize{IV}}^{2} and M_BH \\propto L_{1350}^{0.52+/- 0.09}\\,FWHM_{C\\,\\scriptsize{IV}}^{0.56+/- 0.48}. The new C-IV-based mass estimators show significant mass-dependent systematic difference compared to the estimators commonly used in the literature. Using the published Sloan Digital Sky Survey QSO catalog, we show that the black hole mass of high-redshift QSOs decreases on average by ~0.25 dex if our recipe is adopted.

  19. Ages and Accumulation Rates of the Martian Polar Layered Deposits Estimated from Orbital Tuning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sori, M.; Bailey, E. A.; Perron, J.; Huybers, P. J.; Aharonson, O.; Limaye, A.

    2013-12-01

    Layers of dusty water ice in the polar caps of Mars have been hypothesized to record climate changes driven by variation of the planet's orbit and spin axis, but the time interval over which the polar layered deposits (PLDs) formed is unknown, and an orbital influence has not been conclusively demonstrated. We performed orbital tuning of reconstructed PLD stratigraphic sequences in an attempt to constrain the accumulation interval and test for the presence of an orbital signal. Our procedure uses dynamic time warping (DTW) to search for a match between two time series - the polar insolation history and brightness or topographic information in the PLDs - and then assesses the significance of potential matches using a Monte Carlo procedure. We selected 30 images of the northern PLDs from the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and used Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter profiles to transform each image into a record of image brightness as a function of vertical depth. To constrain the PLD age and accumulation rate, we tuned each image record to Martian insolation records for varying time intervals. If a particular insolation interval produced the strongest match to an image, and if the match became weaker as the image was tuned to progressively longer or shorter intervals, we chose the best-fitting interval as an estimated accumulation time for that PLD sequence, and used the depth range to estimate a corresponding PLD accumulation rate. We also tuned the insolation records to synthetic records containing no orbital influence to test whether the image matches were spurious. Of the 30 MOC images analyzed, 16 produce insolation intervals that we consider strong matches. These images yield an average deposition rate of 0.5 × 0.2 mm/yr for the northern PLDs. The images represent only a fraction of the entire stratigraphy; extrapolating that deposition rate farther back in time yields an age of ~4 Ma for the entire PLD sequence present in the

  20. Multivariate methods for the analysis of complex and big data in forensic sciences. Application to age estimation in living persons.

    PubMed

    Lefèvre, Thomas; Chariot, Patrick; Chauvin, Pierre

    2016-09-01

    Researchers handle increasingly higher dimensional datasets, with many variables to explore. Such datasets pose several problems, since they are difficult to handle and present unexpected features. As dimensionality increases, classical statistical analysis becomes inoperative. Variables can present redundancy, and the reduction of dataset dimensionality to its lowest possible value is often needed. Principal components analysis (PCA) has proven useful to reduce dimensionality but present several shortcomings. As others, forensic sciences will face the issues specific related to an evergrowing quantity of data to be integrated. Age estimation in living persons, an unsolved problem so far, could benefit from the integration of various sources of data, e.g., clinical, dental and radiological data. We present here novel multivariate techniques (nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, NLDR), applied to a theoretical example. Results were compared to those of PCA. NLDR techniques were then applied to clinical, dental and radiological data (13 variables) used for age estimation. The correlation dimension of these data was estimated. NLDR techniques outperformed PCA results. They showed that two living persons sharing similar characteristics may present rather different estimated ages. Moreover, data presented a very high informational redundancy, i.e., a correlation dimension of 2. NLDR techniques should be used with or preferred to PCA techniques to analyze complex and big data. Data routinely used for age estimation may not be considered suitable for this purpose. How integrating other data or approaches could improve age estimation in living persons is still uncertain.

  1. Single-View Food Portion Estimation Based on Geometric Models

    PubMed Central

    Fang, Shaobo; Liu, Chang; Zhu, Fengqing; Delp, Edward J.; Boushey, Carol J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a food portion estimation technique based on a single-view food image used for the estimation of the amount of energy (in kilocalories) consumed at a meal. Unlike previous methods we have developed, the new technique is capable of estimating food portion without manual tuning of parameters. Although single-view 3D scene reconstruction is in general an ill-posed problem, the use of geometric models such as the shape of a container can help to partially recover 3D parameters of food items in the scene. Based on the estimated 3D parameters of each food item and a reference object in the scene, the volume of each food item in the image can be determined. The weight of each food can then be estimated using the density of the food item. We were able to achieve an error of less than 6% for energy estimation of an image of a meal assuming accurate segmentation and food classification. PMID:27672682

  2. Accuracy of Cameriere, Haavikko, and Willems radiographic methods on age estimation on Bosnian-Herzegovian children age groups 6-13.

    PubMed

    Galić, Ivan; Vodanović, Marin; Cameriere, Roberto; Nakaš, Enita; Galić, Elizabeta; Selimović, Edin; Brkić, Hrvoje

    2011-03-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to compare the accuracy of the Cameriere European formula (Cameriere), adopted Haavikko method from 1974 (Haavikko), and revisited Demirjian method by Willems (Willems) for age estimation on orthopantomograms (OPGs) of Bosnian-Herzegovian (BH) children age groups 6-13 years. The accuracy was determined as difference between estimated dental age (DA) and chronological age (CA) and the absolute accuracy (absolute difference) was assessed by analyzing OPGs of 591 girls and 498 boys. The Cameriere method overestimated the mean age by 0.09 year for girls and underestimated by -0.02 year for boys. The Haavikko method underestimated the mean age by -0.29 year for girls and -0.09 year for boys. The Willems method overestimated the mean age by 0.24 year in girls and by 0.42 year in boys. The absolute accuracies were 0.53 year for girls and 0.55 year for boys for Cameriere method; for Haavikko method, 0.59 year for girls and 0.62 year for boys; and for Willems method 0.69 year for girls and 0.67 year for boys. In conclusion, Cameriere method is the most accurate for estimating the age of BH children age groups 6-13 years using OPGs, following adopted Haavikko method and Willems method.

  3. Human dental age estimation by calculation of pulp-tooth volume ratios yielded on clinically acquired cone beam computed tomography images of monoradicular teeth.

    PubMed

    Star, Hazha; Thevissen, Patrick; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Fieuws, Steffen; Solheim, Tore; Willems, Guy

    2011-01-01

    Secondary dentine is responsible for a decrease in the volume of the dental pulp cavity with aging. The aim of this study is to evaluate a human dental age estimation method based on the ratio between the volume of the pulp and the volume of its corresponding tooth, calculated on clinically taken cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images from monoradicular teeth. On the 3D images of 111 clinically obtained CBCT images (Scanora(®) 3D dental cone beam unit) of 57 female and 54 male patients ranging in age between 10 and 65 years, the pulp-tooth volume ratio of 64 incisors, 32 canines, and 15 premolars was calculated with Simplant(®) Pro software. A linear regression model was fit with age as dependent variable and ratio as predictor, allowing for interactions of specific gender or tooth type. The obtained pulp-tooth volume ratios were the strongest related to age on incisors.

  4. Adaptive Estimation of Intravascular Shear Rate Based on Parameter Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Naotaka; Takeda, Naoto

    2008-05-01

    The relationships between the intravascular wall shear stress, controlled by flow dynamics, and the progress of arteriosclerosis plaque have been clarified by various studies. Since the shear stress is determined by the viscosity coefficient and shear rate, both factors must be estimated accurately. In this paper, an adaptive method for improving the accuracy of quantitative shear rate estimation was investigated. First, the parameter dependence of the estimated shear rate was investigated in terms of the differential window width and the number of averaged velocity profiles based on simulation and experimental data, and then the shear rate calculation was optimized. The optimized result revealed that the proposed adaptive method of shear rate estimation was effective for improving the accuracy of shear rate calculation.

  5. Lithium battery aging model based on Dakin's degradation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baghdadi, Issam; Briat, Olivier; Delétage, Jean-Yves; Gyan, Philippe; Vinassa, Jean-Michel

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes and validates a calendar and power cycling aging model for two different lithium battery technologies. The model development is based on previous SIMCAL and SIMSTOCK project data. In these previous projects, the effect of the battery state of charge, temperature and current magnitude on aging was studied on a large panel of different battery chemistries. In this work, data are analyzed using Dakin's degradation approach. In fact, the logarithms of battery capacity fade and the increase in resistance evolves linearly over aging. The slopes identified from straight lines correspond to battery aging rates. Thus, a battery aging rate expression function of aging factors was deduced and found to be governed by Eyring's law. The proposed model simulates the capacity fade and resistance increase as functions of the influencing aging factors. Its expansion using Taylor series was consistent with semi-empirical models based on the square root of time, which are widely studied in the literature. Finally, the influence of the current magnitude and temperature on aging was simulated. Interestingly, the aging rate highly increases with decreasing and increasing temperature for the ranges of -5 °C-25 °C and 25 °C-60 °C, respectively.

  6. Accelerometry-based berg balance scale score estimation.

    PubMed

    Simila, Heidi; Mantyjarvi, Jani; Merilahti, Juho; Lindholm, Mikko; Ermes, Miikka

    2014-07-01

    The objective of the study was to investigate the validity of 3-D-accelerometry-based Berg balance scale (BBS) score estimation. In particular, acceleration patterns of BBS tasks and gait were the targets of analysis. Accelerations of the lower back were measured during execution of the BBS test and corridor walking for 54 subjects, consisting of neurological patients, older adults, and healthy young persons. The BBS score was estimated from one to three BBS tasks and from gait-related data, separately, through assessment of the similarity of acceleration patterns between subjects. The work also validated both approaches' ability to classify subjects into high- and low-fall-risk groups. The gait-based method yielded the best BBS score estimates and the most accurate BBS-task-based estimates were produced with the stand to sit, reaching, and picking object tasks. The proposed gait-based method can identify subjects with high or low risk of falling with an accuracy of 77.8% and 96.6%, respectively, and the BBS-task based method with corresponding accuracy of 89.5% and 62.1%.

  7. Applicability of Demirjian's four methods and Willems method for age estimation in a sample of Turkish children.

    PubMed

    Akkaya, Nursel; Yilanci, Hümeyra Özge; Göksülük, Dinçer

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate applicability of five dental methods including Demirjian's original, revised, four teeth, and alternate four teeth methods and Willems method for age estimation in a sample of Turkish children. Panoramic radiographs of 799 children (412 females, 387 males) aged between 2.20 and 15.99years were examined by two observers. A repeated measures ANOVA was performed to compare dental methods among gender and age groups. All of the five methods overestimated the chronological age on the average. Among these, Willems method was found to be the most accurate method, which showed 0.07 and 0.15years overestimation for males and females, respectively. It was followed by Demirjian's four teeth methods, revised and original methods. According to the results, Willems method can be recommended for dental age estimation of Turkish children in forensic applications.

  8. The analysis of aging skin based on multiphoton microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shulian; Li, Hui; Zhang, Xiaoman; Li, Zhifang; Xu, Shufei

    2010-11-01

    Aging is a very important issue not only in dermatology, but also in cosmetic science. Cutaneous aging involves both chronological and photoaging aging process. The chronological aging is induced with the passage of time. And the photoaging skin is the extrinsic aging caused by sun exposure. The aim of this study is to use multiphoton microscopy (MPM) in vivo to assess intrinsic-age-related and photo-age-related difference. The changes of dermal collagen are measured in quantitively. The algorithm that we used automatically produced the transversal dermal map from MPM. Others, the texture of dermis are analyzed by Fourier transform and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix. And the object extraction in textured images is proposed based on the method in object edge extraction, and the aim of it is to detect the object hidden in the skin texture in difference aging skin. The result demonstrates that the approach is effective in detecting the object in epidermis and dermis textured image in different aging skin. It could help to further understand the aging mechanism.

  9. Family Sponsorship and Late-Age Immigration in Aging America: Revised and Expanded Estimates of Chained Migration

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Stacie; Tienda, Marta

    2013-01-01

    We use the Immigrants Admitted to the United States (micro-data) supplemented with special tabulations from the Department of Homeland Security to examine how family reunification impacts the age composition of new immigrant cohorts since 1980. We develop a family migration multiplier measure for the period 1981 to 2009 that improves on prior studies by including immigrants granted legal status under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and relaxing unrealistic assumptions required by synthetic cohort measures. Results show that every 100 initiating immigrants admitted between 1981–85 sponsored an average of 260 family members; the comparable figure for initiating immigrants for the 1996–2000 cohort is 345 family members. Furthermore, the number of family migrants ages 50 and over rose from 44 to 74 per 100 initiating migrants. The discussion considers the health and welfare implications of late-age immigration in a climate of growing fiscal restraint and an aging native population. PMID:24415816

  10. Family Sponsorship and Late-Age Immigration in Aging America: Revised and Expanded Estimates of Chained Migration.

    PubMed

    Carr, Stacie; Tienda, Marta

    2013-12-01

    We use the Immigrants Admitted to the United States (micro-data) supplemented with special tabulations from the Department of Homeland Security to examine how family reunification impacts the age composition of new immigrant cohorts since 1980. We develop a family migration multiplier measure for the period 1981 to 2009 that improves on prior studies by including immigrants granted legal status under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and relaxing unrealistic assumptions required by synthetic cohort measures. Results show that every 100 initiating immigrants admitted between 1981-85 sponsored an average of 260 family members; the comparable figure for initiating immigrants for the 1996-2000 cohort is 345 family members. Furthermore, the number of family migrants ages 50 and over rose from 44 to 74 per 100 initiating migrants. The discussion considers the health and welfare implications of late-age immigration in a climate of growing fiscal restraint and an aging native population.

  11. Magnetotelluric Response Function Estimation Based on Hilbert-Huang Transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jian-hua

    2013-11-01

    Magnetotelluric (MT) data series are non-stationary random signals that do not meet the basic requirements of conventional methods based on the Fourier transform. To minimize the estimation bias errors brought about by the non-stationary characteristics of MT data, a new method, based on the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), is proposed for the first time for estimating the MT response functions from a time series of electromagnetic field variations. With the HHT method, the amplitude of data series are expressed as a function of frequency and time and then response functions are estimated statistically from the time-frequency spectrum. Mathematical model and calculation processes are introduced and some simulated data are analyzed to verify the correctness of the method. Finally, the measured MT data is facilitated by applying the HHT to assess the ability of HHT method to quantify meaningful geologic information.

  12. Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parmenter, R.R.; Yates, Terry L.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Dunnum, J.L.; Franklin, A.B.; Friggens, M.T.; Lubow, B.C.; Miller, M.; Olson, G.S.; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Pollard, J.; Rexstad, E.; Shenk, T.M.; Stanley, T.R.; White, Gary C.

    2003-01-01

    blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models Mb and Mbh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research

  13. Raman spectroscopy for highly accurate estimation of the age of refrigerated porcine muscle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timinis, Constantinos; Pitris, Costas

    2016-03-01

    The high water content of meat, combined with all the nutrients it contains, make it vulnerable to spoilage at all stages of production and storage even when refrigerated at 5 °C. A non-destructive and in situ tool for meat sample testing, which could provide an accurate indication of the storage time of meat, would be very useful for the control of meat quality as well as for consumer safety. The proposed solution is based on Raman spectroscopy which is non-invasive and can be applied in situ. For the purposes of this project, 42 meat samples from 14 animals were obtained and three Raman spectra per sample were collected every two days for two weeks. The spectra were subsequently processed and the sample age was calculated using a set of linear differential equations. In addition, the samples were classified in categories corresponding to the age in 2-day steps (i.e., 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 or 14 days old), using linear discriminant analysis and cross-validation. Contrary to other studies, where the samples were simply grouped into two categories (higher or lower quality, suitable or unsuitable for human consumption, etc.), in this study, the age was predicted with a mean error of ~ 1 day (20%) or classified, in 2-day steps, with 100% accuracy. Although Raman spectroscopy has been used in the past for the analysis of meat samples, the proposed methodology has resulted in a prediction of the sample age far more accurately than any report in the literature.

  14. Stochastic Complexity Based Estimation of Missing Elements in Questionnaire Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tirri, Henry; Silander, Tomi

    A new information-theoretically justified approach to missing data estimation for multivariate categorical data was studied. The approach is a model-based imputation procedure relative to a model class (i.e., a functional form for the probability distribution of the complete data matrix), which in this case is the set of multinomial models with…

  15. A comparison of ages estimated by the polarized light method with ages estimated by vertebrae in females of Coryphaenoides acrolepis (Pisces: Macrouridae)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Raymond R.

    1982-11-01

    Rings of scales seen by the use of polarized light are compared to those of vertebral centra of the Pacific grenadier Coryphaenoides acrolepis (Bean). Although the number of rings in the two structures from the same individual show significant statistical agreement, strict numerical agreement occurred in only 22 out of 100 comparisons. Ageing by either technique produced comparable logistic growth curves.

  16. Forensic age estimation in anti-piracy trials in Seychelles: Experiences and challenges faced.

    PubMed

    Gunawardena, S A; Liyanage, U A; Weeratna, J B; Mendis, N D N A; Perera, H J M; Jayasekara, R W; Fernando, R

    2017-01-01

    Forensic age estimation (FAE) was conducted using a multifactorial method on thirteen Somali detainees claiming juvenile status during the anti-piracy trials of the Seychelles Supreme Court in 2014/2015. A multidisciplinary team, comprising of four of the authors covering specialties in forensic medicine, forensic odontology and radiology, conducted the FAE using a five-stage protocol. Each detainee was interviewed with an interpreter and examined for disorders affecting dental/skeletal development and for assessment of genital development through Tanner staging. Dental maturity was assessed clinically and radiologically. Eruption stage was assessed using Olze et al. and mandibular third-molar maturity was assessed using Demirjian's classification. Skeletal maturity was assessed from hand-wrist X-rays according to Greulich & Pyle and from CT-clavicle according to Kellinghaus et al. and Schultz et al. Interpretation of findings was done using reference population data from similar ethnic and social backgrounds wherever possible. Final age-ranges were calculated by combining dental and clavicle maturity stages using the regression formula developed by Bassed et al. followed by a 10% correction factor. The team later testified on their findings under cross-examination. The protocol adopted by the authors increased the scientific validity of the findings and was useful in addressing cross-examination queries on exclusion of developmental disorders, ethnic/socioeconomic variability and maintaining chain of custody. Unforeseen jurisdictional and practical limitations were experienced but did not affect the outcome. Combining dental and clavicle developmental data provided the court with a much clearer picture on the likelihood of the detainees' juvenile status which emphasizes the importance of conducting more population studies using combinations of different developmental sites. The authors note that available reference data is mostly from affluent populations whereas

  17. A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age-depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, Shin'ya; Suzuki, Kazue; Kawamura, Kenji; Parrenin, Frédéric; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

    2016-02-01

    A technique for estimating the age-depth relationship in an ice core and evaluating its uncertainty is presented. The age-depth relationship is determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process as a result of the deformation of ice layers. However, since neither the accumulation rate nor the thinning process is fully known, it is essential to incorporate observational information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated by making use of age markers and δ18O data. The age markers provide reliable age information at several depths. The data of δ18O are used as a proxy of the temperature for estimating the accumulation rate. The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method, which is a combination of the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters in the models for the accumulation and thinning process are computed using the Metropolis method, in which the likelihood is obtained with the SMC method, and the posterior distribution for the age as a function of depth is obtained by collecting the samples generated by the SMC method with Metropolis iterations. The use of this PMCMC method enables us to estimate the age-depth relationship without assuming either linearity or Gaussianity. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica.

  18. Age dependency of base modification in rabbit liver DNA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yamamoto, O.; Fuji, I.; Yoshida, T.; Cox, A. B.; Lett, J. T.

    1988-01-01

    Age-related modifications of DNA bases have been observed in the liver of the New Zealand white (NZW) rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), a lagomorph with a median life span in captivity of 5-7 yr. The ages of the animals studied ranged from 6 wk to 9 yr. After the DNA had been extracted from the liver cell nuclei and hydrolyzed with acid, the bases were analyzed by column chromatography with Cellulofine gels (GC-15-m). Two peaks in the chromatogram, which eluted before the four DNA bases, contained modified bases. Those materials, which were obtained in relatively large amounts from old animals, were highly fluorescent, and were shown to be crosslinked base products by mass spectrometry. The yield of crosslinked products versus rabbit age (greater than 0.5 yr) can be fitted by an exponential function (correlation coefficient: 0.76 +/- 0.09).

  19. Applicability of Age-Based Hunting Regulations for African Leopards

    PubMed Central

    Balme, Guy Andrew; Hunter, Luke; Braczkowski, Alex Richard

    2012-01-01

    In species in which juvenile survival depends strongly on male tenure, excessive trophy hunting can artificially elevate male turnover and increase infanticide, potentially to unsustainable levels. Simulation models show that the likelihood of safe harvests can be improved by restricting offtakes to males old enough to have reared their first cohort of offspring to independence; in the case of African leopards, males were ≥7 years old. Here, we explore the applicability of an age-based approach for regulating trophy hunting of leopards. We conducted a structured survey comprising photographs of known-age leopards to assess the ability of wildlife practitioners to sex and age leopards. We also evaluated the utility of four phenotypic traits for use by trophy hunters to age male leopards in the field. Our logistic regression models showed that male leopard age affected the likelihood of survey respondents identifying the correct sex; notably, males <2 years were typically misidentified as females, while mature males (≥4 years) were sexed correctly. Mature male leopards were also more likely to be aged correctly, as were portrait photographs. Aging proficiency was also influenced by the profession of respondents, with hunters recording the lowest scores. A discriminant model including dewlap size, the condition of the ears, and the extent of facial scarring accurately discriminated among male leopard age classes. Model classification rates were considerably higher than the respective scores attained by survey respondents, implying that the aging ability of hunters could theoretically improve with appropriate training. Dewlap size was a particularly reliable indicator of males ≥7 years and a review of online trophy galleries suggested its wider utility as an aging criterion. Our study demonstrated that an age-based hunting approach is practically applicable for leopards. However, implementation would require major reform within the regulatory framework and the

  20. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  1. Estimating evaporative vapor generation from automobiles based on parking activities.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xinyi; Tschantz, Michael; Fu, Joshua S

    2015-07-01

    A new approach is proposed to quantify the evaporative vapor generation based on real parking activity data. As compared to the existing methods, two improvements are applied in this new approach to reduce the uncertainties: First, evaporative vapor generation from diurnal parking events is usually calculated based on estimated average parking duration for the whole fleet, while in this study, vapor generation rate is calculated based on parking activities distribution. Second, rather than using the daily temperature gradient, this study uses hourly temperature observations to derive the hourly incremental vapor generation rates. The parking distribution and hourly incremental vapor generation rates are then adopted with Wade-Reddy's equation to estimate the weighted average evaporative generation. We find that hourly incremental rates can better describe the temporal variations of vapor generation, and the weighted vapor generation rate is 5-8% less than calculation without considering parking activity.

  2. Classifier-based latency estimation: a novel way to estimate and predict BCI accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, David E.; Warschausky, Seth; Huggins, Jane E.

    2013-02-01

    Objective. Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) that detect event-related potentials (ERPs) rely on classification schemes that are vulnerable to latency jitter, a phenomenon known to occur with ERPs such as the P300 response. The objective of this work was to investigate the role that latency jitter plays in BCI classification. Approach. We developed a novel method, classifier-based latency estimation (CBLE), based on a generalization of Woody filtering. The technique works by presenting the time-shifted data to the classifier, and using the time shift that corresponds to the maximal classifier score. Main results. The variance of CBLE estimates correlates significantly (p < 10-42) with BCI accuracy in the Farwell-Donchin BCI paradigm. Additionally, CBLE predicts same-day accuracy, even from small datasets or datasets that have already been used for classifier training, better than the accuracy on the small dataset (p < 0.05). The technique should be relatively classifier-independent, and the results were confirmed on two linear classifiers. Significance. The results suggest that latency jitter may be an important cause of poor BCI performance, and methods that correct for latency jitter may improve that performance. CBLE can also be used to decrease the amount of data needed for accuracy estimation, allowing research on effects with shorter timescales.

  3. Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  4. Translating CFC-based piston ages into probability density functions of ground-water age in karst

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2006-01-01

    Temporal age distributions are equivalent to probability density functions (PDFs) of transit time. The type and shape of a PDF provides important information related to ground-water mixing at the well or spring and the complex nature of flow networks in karst aquifers. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentrations measured for samples from 12 locations in the karstic Madison aquifer were used to evaluate the suitability of various PDF types for this aquifer. Parameters of PDFs could not be estimated within acceptable confidence intervals for any of the individual sites. Therefore, metrics derived from CFC-based apparent ages were used to evaluate results of PDF modeling in a more general approach. The ranges of these metrics were established as criteria against which families of PDFs could be evaluated for their applicability to different parts of the aquifer. Seven PDF types, including five unimodal and two bimodal models, were evaluated. Model results indicate that unimodal models may be applicable to areas close to conduits that have younger piston (i.e., apparent) ages and that bimodal models probably are applicable to areas farther from conduits that have older piston ages. The two components of a bimodal PDF are interpreted as representing conduit and diffuse flow, and transit times of as much as two decades may separate these PDF components. Areas near conduits may be dominated by conduit flow, whereas areas farther from conduits having bimodal distributions probably have good hydraulic connection to both diffuse and conduit flow. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. [Estimating cardiovascular age of civil flying personnel by means of heart rate and blood pressure variability analysis].

    PubMed

    Niu, Y G; Zhang, L F; Zhang, Y H; Wang, S Y; Xu, X Y; Su, J X; Yan, Y B

    2001-06-01

    Objective. To estimate the cardiovascular age of civil flying personnel by means of heart rate and blood pressure variability analysis and to evaluate its significance in aviation medicine. Method. First, heart rate variability (HRV), blood pressure variability (BPV) and spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) were analyzed among 89 healthy civil flying personnel by using conventional AR spectral analysis and sequence method respectively. Then, principal component analysis was conducted over original and derived variables of HRV and BPV spectral and BRS data. Finally, by the use of multiple regression in which the chronological age acted as the dependent variable and the components significantly related to age were used as the regressors, the equation for estimating the cardiovascular age was established. Result. Only seven principal components can exactly reflect the same information of autonomic regulatory function which was embodied in the 17 variables of HRV and BPV spectral and BRS parameters. Among the seven principal components, the PC2orig, PC4orig and PC2deri were negatively correlated with chronological age (P<0.05), whereas the PC3orig was positively correlated with the chronological age (P<0.01). The cardiovascular age derived from the equation was significantly correlated with the chronological age of the civil flying personnel (r= 0.73, P<0.01). Conclusion. The cardiovascular age estimated by means of a multi-variate analysis of HRV, BPV and BRS can be treated as a comprehensive indicator reflecting the age dependency of autonomic regulatory function of cardiovascular system in healthy civil flying personnel, and its interpretation and significance in application are surely worthy of further and fully dedicated efforts.

  6. Image-based spectral transmission estimation using "sensitivity comparison".

    PubMed

    Nahavandi, Alireza Mahmoudi; Tehran, Mohammad Amani

    2017-01-20

    Although digital cameras have been used for spectral reflectance estimation, transmission measurement has rarely been considered in studies. This study presents a method named sensitivity comparison (SC) for spectral transmission estimation. The method needs neither a priori knowledge from the samples nor statistical information of a given reflectance dataset. As with spectrophotometers, the SC method needs one shot for calibration and another shot for measurement. The method exploits the sensitivity of the camera in the absence and presence of transparent colored objects for transmission estimation. 138 Kodak Wratten Gelatin filter transmissions were used for controlling the proposed method. Using modeling of the imaging system in different levels of noise, the performance of the proposed method was compared with a training-based Matrix R method. For checking the performance of the SC method in practice, 33 manmade colored transparent films were used in a conventional three-channel camera. The method generated promising results using different error metrics.

  7. Estimation of Characteristic Period for Energy Based Seismic Design

    SciTech Connect

    Hancloglu, Baykal; Polat, Zekeriya; Kircil, Murat Serdar

    2008-07-08

    Estimation of input energy using approximate methods has been always a considerable research topic of energy based seismic design. Therefore several approaches have been proposed by many researchers to estimate the energy input to SDOF systems in the last decades. The characteristic period is the key parameter of most of these approaches and it is defined as the period at which the peak value of the input energy occurs. In this study an equation is proposed for estimating the characteristic period considering an extensive earthquake ground motion database which includes a total of 268 far-field records, two horizontal components from 134 recording stations located on both soft and firm soil sites. For this purpose statistical regression analyses are performed to develop an equation in terms of a number of structural parameters, and it is found that the developed equation yields satisfactory results comparing the characteristic periods calculated from time history analyses of SDOF systems.

  8. Population-Calibrated Gene Characterization: Estimating Age at Onset Distributions Associated With Cancer Genes

    PubMed Central

    Iversen, Edwin S.; Chen, Sining

    2008-01-01

    Phenotypic characterization of rare disease genes poses a significant statistical challenge, but the need to do so is clear. Clinical management of patients carrying a disease gene depends crucially on an accurate characterization of the genetically predisposed disease, including its likelihood of occurrence among mutation carriers, natural history, and response to treatment. We propose a formal yet practical method for controlling for bias due to ignoring ascertainment, defined as the sampling mechanism, when quantifying the association between genotype and disease using data on high-risk families. The approach is more statistically efficient than conditioning on the variables used in sampling. In it, the likelihood is adjusted by a factor that is a function of sampling weights in strata defined by those variables. It requires that these variables and the sampling probabilities in the strata they define either are known or can be estimated. The latter requires a second, population-based dataset. As an example, we derive ascertainment-corrected estimates of penetrance for the breast cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. The Bayesian analysis that we use incorporates a modified segregation model and prior data on penetrance derived from the literature. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for inference. PMID:18418465

  9. [Estimation of the biological age in taiga tick females (Ixodes persulcatus:Ixodidae) by the fat reserves in organism].

    PubMed

    Balashov, Iu S; Grigor'eva, L A

    2010-01-01

    The method of estimation of the biological age in non-feeding tick females by the level of adipose inclusions in the cells of the midgut and fat body is developed. In order to estimate the fat reserves in non-feeding females, alive ticks were dissected and fragments of their internal were vitally stained with the pregnant solution of sudan III in 70 % ethanol. Three age-specific groups were established: I, young females whose intestines and fat body were filled with fat inclusions; II, mature females whose fat reserves were partially expended; III, old females having isolated fat inclusions in their midgut and fat body.

  10. Do Individual Differences and Aging Effects in the Estimation of Geographical Slant Reflect Cognitive or Perceptual Effects?

    PubMed Central

    Dean, Abigail M.; Oh, Jaehyun; Thomson, Christopher J.; Norris, Catherine J.

    2016-01-01

    Several individual differences including age have been suggested to affect the perception of slant. A cross-sectional study of outdoor hill estimation (N = 106) was analyzed using individual difference measures of age, experiential knowledge, fitness, personality traits, and sex. Of particular note, it was found that for participants who reported any experiential knowledge about slant, estimates decreased (i.e., became more accurate) as conscientiousness increased, suggesting that more conscientious individuals were more deliberate about taking their experiential knowledge (rather than perception) into account. Effects of fitness were limited to those without experiential knowledge, suggesting that they, too, may be cognitive rather than perceptual. The observed effects of age, which tended to produce lower, more accurate estimates of hill slant, provide more evidence that older adults do not see hills as steeper. The main effect of age was to lower slant estimates; such effects may be due to implicit experiential knowledge acquired over a lifetime. The results indicate the impact of cognitive, rather than perceptual factors on individual differences in slant estimation. PMID:27698978

  11. Optical flow based velocity estimation for mobile robots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiuzhi; Zhao, Guanrong; Jia, Songmin; Qin, Baoling; Yang, Ailin

    2015-02-01

    This paper presents an optical flow based novel technique to perceive the instant motion velocity of mobile robots. The primary focus of this study is to determine the robot's ego-motion using displacement field in temporally consecutive image pairs. In contrast to most previous approaches for estimating velocity, we employ a polynomial expansion based dense optical flow approach and propose a quadratic model based RANSAC refinement of flow fields to render our method more robust with respect to noise and outliers. Accordingly, techniques for geometrical transformation and interpretation of the inter-frame motion are presented. Advantages of our proposal are validated by real experimental results conducted on Pioneer robot.

  12. MRI-based intelligence quotient (IQ) estimation with sparse learning.

    PubMed

    Wang, Liye; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Suk, Heung-Il; Tang, Xiaoying; Shen, Dinggang

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel framework for IQ estimation using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. In particular, we devise a new feature selection method based on an extended dirty model for jointly considering both element-wise sparsity and group-wise sparsity. Meanwhile, due to the absence of large dataset with consistent scanning protocols for the IQ estimation, we integrate multiple datasets scanned from different sites with different scanning parameters and protocols. In this way, there is large variability in these different datasets. To address this issue, we design a two-step procedure for 1) first identifying the possible scanning site for each testing subject and 2) then estimating the testing subject's IQ by using a specific estimator designed for that scanning site. We perform two experiments to test the performance of our method by using the MRI data collected from 164 typically developing children between 6 and 15 years old. In the first experiment, we use a multi-kernel Support Vector Regression (SVR) for estimating IQ values, and obtain an average correlation coefficient of 0.718 and also an average root mean square error of 8.695 between the true IQs and the estimated ones. In the second experiment, we use a single-kernel SVR for IQ estimation, and achieve an average correlation coefficient of 0.684 and an average root mean square error of 9.166. All these results show the effectiveness of using imaging data for IQ prediction, which is rarely done in the field according to our knowledge.

  13. On Estimating Force-freeness Based on Observed Magnetograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X. M.; Zhang, M.; Su, J. T.

    2017-01-01

    It is a common practice in the solar physics community to test whether or not measured photospheric or chromospheric vector magnetograms are force-free, using the Maxwell stress as a measure. Some previous studies have suggested that magnetic fields of active regions in the solar chromosphere are close to being force-free whereas there is no consistency among previous studies on whether magnetic fields of active regions in the solar photosphere are force-free or not. Here we use three kinds of representative magnetic fields (analytical force-free solutions, modeled solar-like force-free fields, and observed non-force-free fields) to discuss how measurement issues such as limited field of view (FOV), instrument sensitivity, and measurement error could affect the estimation of force-freeness based on observed magnetograms. Unlike previous studies that focus on discussing the effect of limited FOV or instrument sensitivity, our calculation shows that just measurement error alone can significantly influence the results of estimates of force-freeness, due to the fact that measurement errors in horizontal magnetic fields are usually ten times larger than those in vertical fields. This property of measurement errors, interacting with the particular form of a formula for estimating force-freeness, would result in wrong judgments of the force-freeness: a truly force-free field may be mistakenly estimated as being non-force-free and a truly non-force-free field may be estimated as being force-free. Our analysis calls for caution when interpreting estimates of force-freeness based on measured magnetograms, and also suggests that the true photospheric magnetic field may be further away from being force-free than it currently appears to be.

  14. Age estimation from pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary incisors among Egyptians using dental radiographic images.

    PubMed

    Zaher, Jaklin Fekri; Fawzy, Irene Atef; Habib, Sahar Refaat; Ali, Magdy Mohamed

    2011-02-01

    Age estimation from dental radiographs is a non-destructive, simple method to obtain information. The aim of this study was to determine the reliability of age estimation from Egyptians' incisors radiographs. 144 periapical radiographs of maxillary (central & lateral) incisors (both sexes) aged 12-60 were used. Digital camera was used to image the radiographs. Images were computed and pulp/tooth area ratios were determined by AutoCAD Program. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis which showed statistically significant correlation (r = 0.23 &P = 0.006 for maxillary central incisors and r = -0.2 &P = 0.05 for maxillary lateral incisors) between age and pulp tooth area ratio. Linear regression equations were determined separately for both central and lateral incisors along with the corresponding Standard Error of Estimate, which ranged from 1.2 to 5.08 years. Consequently, it was concluded that pulp/tooth area ratios of incisors are reliable for estimation of age among Egyptians in forensic work.

  15. [Morphofunctional and molecular bases of pineal gland aging].

    PubMed

    Khavinson, V Kh; Lin'kova, N S

    2012-01-01

    The review analyzed morphology, molecular and functional aspects of pineal gland aging and methods of it correction. The pineal gland is central organ, which regulates activity of neuroimmunoendocrine, antioxidant and other organisms systems. Functional activity of pineal gland is discreased at aging, which is the reason of melatonin level changing. The molecular and morphology research demonstrated, that pineal gland hadn't strongly pronounced atrophy at aging. Long-term experience showed, that peptides extract of pineal gland epithalamin and synthetic tetrapeptide on it base epithalon restored melatonin secretion in pineal gland and had strong regulatory activity at neuroimmunoendocrine and antioxidant organism systems.

  16. Tyre pressure monitoring using a dynamical model-based estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reina, Giulio; Gentile, Angelo; Messina, Arcangelo

    2015-04-01

    In the last few years, various control systems have been investigated in the automotive field with the aim of increasing the level of safety and stability, avoid roll-over, and customise handling characteristics. One critical issue connected with their integration is the lack of state and parameter information. As an example, vehicle handling depends to a large extent on tyre inflation pressure. When inflation pressure drops, handling and comfort performance generally deteriorate. In addition, it results in an increase in fuel consumption and in a decrease in lifetime. Therefore, it is important to keep tyres within the normal inflation pressure range. This paper introduces a model-based approach to estimate online tyre inflation pressure. First, basic vertical dynamic modelling of the vehicle is discussed. Then, a parameter estimation framework for dynamic analysis is presented. Several important vehicle parameters including tyre inflation pressure can be estimated using the estimated states. This method aims to work during normal driving using information from standard sensors only. On the one hand, the driver is informed about the inflation pressure and he is warned for sudden changes. On the other hand, accurate estimation of the vehicle states is available as possible input to onboard control systems.

  17. Spectrum-based kernel length estimation for Gaussian process classification.

    PubMed

    Wang, Liang; Li, Chuan

    2014-06-01

    Recent studies have shown that Gaussian process (GP) classification, a discriminative supervised learning approach, has achieved competitive performance in real applications compared with most state-of-the-art supervised learning methods. However, the problem of automatic model selection in GP classification, involving the kernel function form and the corresponding parameter values (which are unknown in advance), remains a challenge. To make GP classification a more practical tool, this paper presents a novel spectrum analysis-based approach for model selection by refining the GP kernel function to match the given input data. Specifically, we target the problem of GP kernel length scale estimation. Spectrums are first calculated analytically from the kernel function itself using the autocorrelation theorem as well as being estimated numerically from the training data themselves. Then, the kernel length scale is automatically estimated by equating the two spectrum values, i.e., the kernel function spectrum equals to the estimated training data spectrum. Compared with the classical Bayesian method for kernel length scale estimation via maximizing the marginal likelihood (which is time consuming and could suffer from multiple local optima), extensive experimental results on various data sets show that our proposed method is both efficient and accurate.

  18. Uav-Based Automatic Tree Growth Measurement for Biomass Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karpina, M.; Jarząbek-Rychard, M.; Tymków, P.; Borkowski, A.

    2016-06-01

    Manual in-situ measurements of geometric tree parameters for the biomass volume estimation are time-consuming and economically non-effective. Photogrammetric techniques can be deployed in order to automate the measurement procedure. The purpose of the presented work is an automatic tree growth estimation based on Unmanned Aircraft Vehicle (UAV) imagery. The experiment was conducted in an agriculture test field with scots pine canopies. The data was collected using a Leica Aibotix X6V2 platform equipped with a Nikon D800 camera. Reference geometric parameters of selected sample plants were measured manually each week. In situ measurements were correlated with the UAV data acquisition. The correlation aimed at the investigation of optimal conditions for a flight and parameter settings for image acquisition. The collected images are processed in a state of the art tool resulting in a generation of dense 3D point clouds. The algorithm is developed in order to estimate geometric tree parameters from 3D points. Stem positions and tree tops are identified automatically in a cross section, followed by the calculation of tree heights. The automatically derived height values are compared to the reference measurements performed manually. The comparison allows for the evaluation of automatic growth estimation process. The accuracy achieved using UAV photogrammetry for tree heights estimation is about 5cm.

  19. Neuromorphic Event-Based 3D Pose Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Reverter Valeiras, David; Orchard, Garrick; Ieng, Sio-Hoi; Benosman, Ryad B.

    2016-01-01

    Pose estimation is a fundamental step in many artificial vision tasks. It consists of estimating the 3D pose of an object with respect to a camera from the object's 2D projection. Current state of the art implementations operate on images. These implementations are computationally expensive, especially for real-time applications. Scenes with fast dynamics exceeding 30–60 Hz can rarely be processed in real-time using conventional hardware. This paper presents a new method for event-based 3D object pose estimation, making full use of the high temporal resolution (1 μs) of asynchronous visual events output from a single neuromorphic camera. Given an initial estimate of the pose, each incoming event is used to update the pose by combining both 3D and 2D criteria. We show that the asynchronous high temporal resolution of the neuromorphic camera allows us to solve the problem in an incremental manner, achieving real-time performance at an update rate of several hundreds kHz on a conventional laptop. We show that the high temporal resolution of neuromorphic cameras is a key feature for performing accurate pose estimation. Experiments are provided showing the performance of the algorithm on real data, including fast moving objects, occlusions, and cases where the neuromorphic camera and the object are both in motion. PMID:26834547

  20. Validation of accelerated ageing of Thales rotary Stirling cryocoolers for the estimation of MTTF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seguineau, C.,; Cauquil, J.-M.; Martin, J.-Y.; Benschop, T.

    2016-05-01

    The cooled IR detectors are used in a wide range of applications. Most of the time, the cryocoolers are one of the components dimensioning the lifetime of the system. The current market needs tend to reliability figures higher than 15,000hrs in "standard conditions". Field returns are hardly useable mostly because of the uncertain environmental conditions of use, or the differences in user profiles. A previous paper explains how Thales Cryogenics has developed an approach based on accelerated ageing and statistical analysis [1]. The aim of the current paper is to compare results obtained on accelerated ageing on one side, and on the other side, specific field returns where the conditions of use are well known. The comparison between prediction and effective failure rate is discussed. Moreover, a specific focus is done on how some new applications of cryocoolers (continuous operation at a specific temperature) can increase the MTTF. Some assumptions are also exposed on how the failure modes, effects and criticality analysis evolves for continuous operation at a specific temperature and compared to experimental data.

  1. Comparisons of satellite-based models for estimating evapotranspiration fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Consoli, S.; Vanella, D.

    2014-05-01

    Two different types of remote sensing-based techniques were applied to assess the mass and energy exchange process within the continuum soil-plant-atmosphere of a typical Mediterranean crop. The first approach computes a surface energy balance using the radiometric surface temperature (Ts) for estimating the sensible heat flux (H), and obtaining the evapotranspiration fluxes (ET) as a residual of the energy balance. In the paper, the performance of two different surface energy balance approaches (i.e. one-source and two-source (soil + vegetation)) was compared. The second approach uses vegetation indices (VIs), derived from the canopy reflectance, within the FAO-based soil water balance approach to estimate basal crop coefficients to adjust reference ET0 and compute crop ET. Outputs from these models were compared to fluxes of sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat directly measured by the Eddy Covariance method, through a long micrometeorological monitoring campaign carried out in the area of interest. The two-source (2S) model gave the best performance in terms of surface energy fluxes and ET rate estimation, although the overall performance of the three approaches was appreciable. The reflectance-based crop coefficient model has the advantages to do not require any upscaling of the instantaneous ET fluxes from the energy balance models to daily integrated ET. However, its results may be less sensitive to detect crop water stress conditions respect to approaches based on the radiometric surface temperature detection.

  2. Statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Epitropakis, A.; Papadakis, I. E.

    2016-06-01

    Context. The study of X-ray time-lag spectra in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is currently an active research area, since it has the potential to illuminate the physics and geometry of the innermost region (i.e. close to the putative super-massive black hole) in these objects. To obtain reliable information from these studies, the statistical properties of time-lags estimated from data must be known as accurately as possible. Aims: We investigated the statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates (i.e. based on the cross-periodogram), using evenly sampled time series with no missing points. Our aim is to provide practical "guidelines" on estimating time-lags that are minimally biased (i.e. whose mean is close to their intrinsic value) and have known errors. Methods: Our investigation is based on both analytical work and extensive numerical simulations. The latter consisted of generating artificial time series with various signal-to-noise ratios and sampling patterns/durations similar to those offered by AGN observations with present and past X-ray satellites. We also considered a range of different model time-lag spectra commonly assumed in X-ray analyses of compact accreting systems. Results: Discrete sampling, binning and finite light curve duration cause the mean of the time-lag estimates to have a smaller magnitude than their intrinsic values. Smoothing (i.e. binning over consecutive frequencies) of the cross-periodogram can add extra bias at low frequencies. The use of light curves with low signal-to-noise ratio reduces the intrinsic coherence, and can introduce a bias to the sample coherence, time-lag estimates, and their predicted error. Conclusions: Our results have direct implications for X-ray time-lag studies in AGN, but can also be applied to similar studies in other research fields. We find that: a) time-lags should be estimated at frequencies lower than ≈ 1/2 the Nyquist frequency to minimise the effects of discrete binning of the

  3. MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China.

    PubMed

    Yin, Guodong; Zhang, Yuan; Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha-1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y-1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y-1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y-1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests.

  4. MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha−1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y−1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y−1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y−1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests. PMID:26115195

  5. Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model

    PubMed Central

    Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

    2016-01-01

    A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system. PMID:27366146

  6. Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model.

    PubMed

    Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

    2016-01-01

    A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system.

  7. Maintenance of age in human neurons generated by microRNA-based neuronal conversion of fibroblasts

    PubMed Central

    Huh, Christine J; Zhang, Bo; Victor, Matheus B; Dahiya, Sonika; Batista, Luis FZ; Horvath, Steve; Yoo, Andrew S

    2016-01-01

    Aging is a major risk factor in many forms of late-onset neurodegenerative disorders. The ability to recapitulate age-related characteristics of human neurons in culture will offer unprecedented opportunities to study the biological processes underlying neuronal aging. Here, we show that using a recently demonstrated microRNA-based cellular reprogramming approach, human fibroblasts from postnatal to near centenarian donors can be efficiently converted into neurons that maintain multiple age-associated signatures. Application of an epigenetic biomarker of aging (referred to as epigenetic clock) to DNA methylation data revealed that the epigenetic ages of fibroblasts were highly correlated with corresponding