Age, year‐class strength variability, and partial age validation of Kiyis from Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepak, Taylor A.; Ogle, Derek H.; Vinson, Mark

2017-01-01

ge estimates of Lake Superior Kiyis Coregonus kiyi from scales and otoliths were compared and 12 years (2003–2014) of length frequency data were examined to assess year‐class strength and validate age estimates. Ages estimated from otoliths were precise and were consistently older than ages estimated from scales. Maximum otolith‐derived ages were 20 years for females and 12 years for males. Age estimates showed high numbers of fish of ages 5, 6, and 11 in 2014, corresponding to the 2009, 2008, and 2003 year‐classes, respectively. Strong 2003 and 2009 year‐classes, along with the 2005 year‐class, were also evident based on distinct modes of age‐1 fish (<110 mm) in the length frequency distributions from 2004, 2010, and 2006, respectively. Modes from these year‐classes were present as progressively larger fish in subsequent years. Few to no age‐1 fish (<110 mm) were present in all other years. Ages estimated from otoliths were generally within 1 year of the ages corresponding to strong year‐classes, at least for age‐5 and older fish, suggesting that Kiyi age may be reliably estimated to within 1 year by careful examination of thin‐sectioned otoliths.

Estimating primary productivity of tropical oil palm in Malaysia using remote sensing technique and ancillary data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanniah, K. D.; Tan, K. P.; Cracknell, A. P.

2014-10-01

The amount of carbon sequestration by vegetation can be estimated using vegetation productivity. At present, there is a knowledge gap in oil palm net primary productivity (NPP) at a regional scale. Therefore, in this study NPP of oil palm trees in Peninsular Malaysia was estimated using remote sensing based light use efficiency (LUE) model with inputs from local meteorological data, upscaled leaf area index/fractional photosynthetically active radiation (LAI/fPAR) derived using UK-DMC 2 satellite data and a constant maximum LUE value from the literature. NPP values estimated from the model was then compared and validated with NPP estimated using allometric equations developed by Corley and Tinker (2003), Henson (2003) and Syahrinudin (2005) with diameter at breast height, age and the height of the oil palm trees collected from three estates in Peninsular Malaysia. Results of this study show that oil palm NPP derived using a light use efficiency model increases with respect to the age of oil palm trees, and it stabilises after ten years old. The mean value of oil palm NPP at 118 plots as derived using the LUE model is 968.72 g C m-2 year-1 and this is 188% - 273% higher than the NPP derived from the allometric equations. The estimated oil palm NPP of young oil palm trees is lower compared to mature oil palm trees (<10 years old), as young oil palm trees contribute to lower oil palm LAI and therefore fPAR, which is an important variable in the LUE model. In contrast, it is noted that oil palm NPP decreases with respect to the age of oil palm trees as estimated using the allomeric equations. It was found in this study that LUE models could not capture NPP variation of oil palm trees if LAI/fPAR is used. On the other hand, tree height and DBH are found to be important variables that can capture changes in oil palm NPP as a function of age.

AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

EPA Science Inventory

Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominantlco-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

EPA Science Inventory

Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominant/co-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

Bias correction of nutritional status estimates when reported age is used for calculating WHO indicators in children under five years of age.

PubMed

Quezada, Amado D; García-Guerra, Armando; Escobar, Leticia

2016-06-01

To assess the performance of a simple correction method for nutritional status estimates in children under five years of age when exact age is not available from the data. The proposed method was based on the assumption of symmetry of age distributions within a given month of age and validated in a large population-based survey sample of Mexican preschool children. The main distributional assumption was consistent with the data. All prevalence estimates derived from the correction method showed no statistically significant bias. In contrast, failing to correct attained age resulted in an underestimation of stunting in general and an overestimation of overweight or obesity among the youngest. The proposed method performed remarkably well in terms of bias correction of estimates and could be easily applied in situations in which either birth or interview dates are not available from the data.

Self-rated health: small area large area comparisons amongst older adults at the state, district and sub-district level in India.

PubMed

Hirve, Siddhivinayak; Vounatsou, Penelope; Juvekar, Sanjay; Blomstedt, Yulia; Wall, Stig; Chatterji, Somnath; Ng, Nawi

2014-03-01

We compared prevalence estimates of self-rated health (SRH) derived indirectly using four different small area estimation methods for the Vadu (small) area from the national Study on Global AGEing (SAGE) survey with estimates derived directly from the Vadu SAGE survey. The indirect synthetic estimate for Vadu was 24% whereas the model based estimates were 45.6% and 45.7% with smaller prediction errors and comparable to the direct survey estimate of 50%. The model based techniques were better suited to estimate the prevalence of SRH than the indirect synthetic method. We conclude that a simplified mixed effects regression model can produce valid small area estimates of SRH. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning

Treesearch

J.E. Baumgras; C.B. LeDoux

1991-01-01

Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue--reported stumpage prices - and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices...

Age estimation using pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary canines-A digital image analysis.

PubMed

Juneja, Manjushree; Devi, Yashoda B K; Rakesh, N; Juneja, Saurabh

2014-09-01

Determination of age of a subject is one of the most important aspects of medico-legal cases and anthropological research. Radiographs can be used to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition which is depicted by reduction in the pulp area. In this study, 200 patients of Karnataka aged between 18-72 years were selected for the study. Panoramic radiographs were made and indirectly digitized. Radiographic images of maxillary canines (RIC) were processed using a computer-aided drafting program (ImageJ). The variables pulp/root length (p), pulp/tooth length (r), pulp/root width at enamel-cementum junction (ECJ) level (a), pulp/root width at mid-root level (c), pulp/root width at midpoint level between ECJ level and mid-root level (b) and pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) were recorded. All the morphological variables including gender were statistically analyzed to derive regression equation for estimation of age. It was observed that 2 variables 'AR' and 'b' contributed significantly to the fit and were included in the regression model, yielding the formula: Age = 87.305-480.455(AR)+48.108(b). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation with selected variables explained 96% of total variance with the median of the residuals of 0.1614 years and standard error of estimate of 3.0186 years. There is significant correlation between age and morphological variables 'AR' and 'b' and the derived population specific regression equation can be potentially used for estimation of chronological age of individuals of Karnataka origin.

Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

PubMed

Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

1998-01-01

Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

Hip dysplasia in labrador retrievers: the effects of age at scoring.

PubMed

Wood, J L N; Lakhani, K H

2003-01-11

Selective breeding policies for preventing or controlling hip dysplasia require accurate estimates of parameters in offspring/parental relationships and estimates of heritability. Recent literature includes some major studies of pedigree breeds of dog, using data derived from the hip dysplasia screening scheme set up by the British Veterinary Association. These publications have not taken into account the age of the animals when they were screened. This study analyses the data from 29,213 labrador retrievers whose ages were known when they screened. The mean hip score of the dogs was positively and significantly correlated with their age. If this relationship with age is ignored, various offspring/parental relationships and the estimates of heritability are likely to be distorted.

Large and Small Magellanic Clouds age-metallicity relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perren, G. I.; Piatti, A. E.; Vázquez, R. A.

2017-10-01

We present a new determination of the age-metallicity relation for both Magellanic Clouds, estimated through the homogeneous analysis of 239 observed star clusters. All clusters in our set were observed with the filters of the Washington photometric system. The Automated Stellar cluster Analysis package (ASteCA) was employed to derive the cluster's fundamental parameters, in particular their ages and metallicities, through an unassisted process. We find that our age-metallicity relations (AMRs) can not be fully matched to any of the estimations found in twelve previous works, and are better explained by a combination of several of them in different age intervals.

Some analytical models to estimate maternal age at birth using age-specific fertility rates.

PubMed

Pandey, A; Suchindran, C M

1995-01-01

"A class of analytical models to study the distribution of maternal age at different births from the data on age-specific fertility rates has been presented. Deriving the distributions and means of maternal age at birth of any specific order, final parity and at next-to-last birth, we have extended the approach to estimate parity progression ratios and the ultimate parity distribution of women in the population.... We illustrate computations of various components of the model expressions with the current fertility experiences of the United States for 1970." excerpt

Estimating HIV Incidence Using a Cross-Sectional Survey: Comparison of Three Approaches in a Hyperendemic Setting, Ndhiwa Subcounty, Kenya, 2012.

PubMed

Blaizot, Stéphanie; Kim, Andrea A; Zeh, Clement; Riche, Benjamin; Maman, David; De Cock, Kevin M; Etard, Jean-François; Ecochard, René

2017-05-01

Estimating HIV incidence is critical for identifying groups at risk for HIV infection, planning and targeting interventions, and evaluating these interventions over time. The use of reliable estimation methods for HIV incidence is thus of high importance. The aim of this study was to compare methods for estimating HIV incidence in a population-based cross-sectional survey. The incidence estimation methods evaluated included assay-derived methods, a testing history-derived method, and a probability-based method applied to data from the Ndhiwa HIV Impact in Population Survey (NHIPS). Incidence rates by sex and age and cumulative incidence as a function of age were presented. HIV incidence ranged from 1.38 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-2.09] to 3.30 [95% CI 2.78-3.82] per 100 person-years overall; 0.59 [95% CI 0.00-1.34] to 2.89 [95% CI 0.86-6.45] in men; and 1.62 [95% CI 0.16-6.04] to 4.03 [95% CI 3.30-4.77] per 100 person-years in women. Women had higher incidence rates than men for all methods. Incidence rates were highest among women aged 15-24 and 25-34 years and highest among men aged 25-34 years. Comparison of different methods showed variations in incidence estimates, but they were in agreement to identify most-at-risk groups. The use and comparison of several distinct approaches for estimating incidence are important to provide the best-supported estimate of HIV incidence in the population.

Estimating the Home Schooled Population. Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lines, Patricia M.

Curriculum suppliers, state departments of education, and home school leaders, are the sources used to estimate that between 248,500 and 353,500 school-aged children (K-12) were educated at home in the 1990-91 school year. This paper explains how this estimate was derived. It provides information on process, possible bias, alternate survey…

Evaluation of three paediatric weight estimation methods in Singapore.

PubMed

Loo, Pei Ying; Chong, Shu-Ling; Lek, Ngee; Bautista, Dianne; Ng, Kee Chong

2013-04-01

Rapid paediatric weight estimation methods in the emergency setting have not been evaluated for South East Asian children. This study aims to assess the accuracy and precision of three such methods in Singapore children: Broselow-Luten (BL) tape, Advanced Paediatric Life Support (APLS) (estimated weight (kg) = 2 (age + 4)) and Luscombe (estimated weight (kg) = 3 (age) + 7) formulae. We recruited 875 patients aged 1-10 years in a Paediatric Emergency Department in Singapore over a 2-month period. For each patient, true weight and height were determined. True height was cross-referenced to the BL tape markings and used to derive estimated weight (virtual BL tape method), while patient's round-down age (in years) was used to derive estimated weights using APLS and Luscombe formulae, respectively. The percentage difference between the true and estimated weights was calculated. For each method, the bias and extent of agreement were quantified using Bland-Altman method (mean percentage difference (MPD) and 95% limits of agreement (LOA)). The proportion of weight estimates within 10% of true weight (p₁₀) was determined. The BL tape method marginally underestimated weights (MPD +0.6%; 95% LOA -26.8% to +28.1%; p₁₀ 58.9%). The APLS formula underestimated weights (MPD +7.6%; 95% LOA -26.5% to +41.7%; p₁₀ 45.7%). The Luscombe formula overestimated weights (MPD -7.4%; 95% LOA -51.0% to +36.2%; p₁₀ 37.7%). Of the three methods we evaluated, the BL tape method provided the most accurate and precise weight estimation for Singapore children. The APLS and Luscombe formulae underestimated and overestimated the children's weights, respectively, and were considerably less precise. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods.

PubMed

Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

2015-01-01

Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation.

Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods

PubMed Central

Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

2015-01-01

Introduction: Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. Objectives: The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. Conclusion: The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation. PMID:25709325

Estimating a child's age from an image using whole body proportions.

PubMed

Lucas, Teghan; Henneberg, Maciej

2017-09-01

The use and distribution of child pornography is an increasing problem. Forensic anthropologists are often asked to estimate a child's age from a photograph. Previous studies have attempted to estimate the age of children from photographs using ratios of the face. Here, we propose to include body measurement ratios into age estimates. A total of 1603 boys and 1833 girls aged 5-16 years were measured over a 10-year period. They are 'Cape Coloured' children from South Africa. Their age was regressed on ratios derived from anthropometric measurements of the head as well as the body. Multiple regression equations including four ratios for each sex (head height to shoulder and hip width, knee width, leg length and trunk length) have a standard error of 1.6-1.7 years. The error is of the same order as variation of differences between biological and chronological ages of the children. Thus, the error cannot be minimised any further as it is a direct reflection of a naturally occurring phenomenon.

Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

Health literacy and 30-day hospital readmission after acute myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Bailey, Stacy Cooper; Fang, Gang; Annis, Izabela E; O'Conor, Rachel; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K; Wolf, Michael S

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the validity of a predictive model of health literacy, and to examine the relationship between derived health literacy estimates and 30-day hospital readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting and participants A National Institute of Aging (NIA) study cohort of 696 adult, English-speaking primary care patients, aged 55–74 years, was used to assess the validity of derived health literacy estimates. Claims from 7733 Medicare beneficiaries hospitalised for AMI in 2008 in North Carolina and Illinois were used to investigate the association between health literacy estimates and 30-day hospital readmissions. Measures The NIA cohort was administered 3 common health literacy assessments (Newest Vital Sign, Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults, and Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine). Health literacy estimates at the census block group level were derived via a predictive model. 30-day readmissions were measured from Medicare claims data using a validated algorithm. Results Fair agreement was found between derived estimates and in-person literacy assessments (Pearson Correlation coefficients: 0.38–0.51; κ scores: 0.38–0.40). Medicare enrollees with above basic literacy according to derived health literacy estimates had an 18% lower risk of a 30-day readmission (RR=0.82, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.92) and 21% lower incidence rate of 30-day readmission (IRR=0.79, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.87) than patients with basic or below basic literacy. After adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, the risk of 30-day readmission was 12% lower (p=0.03), and the incidence rate 16% lower (p<0.01) for patients with above basic literacy. Conclusions Health literacy, as measured by a predictive model, was found to be a significant, independent predictor of 30-day readmissions. As a modifiable risk factor with evidence-based solutions, health literacy should be considered in readmission reduction efforts. PMID:26068508

10Be concentrations of Red soils in Southwest Japan and its possibility of dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maejima, Y.; Matsuzaki, H.; Nakano, C.

2004-08-01

10Be concentrations of six Red soils distributed in Southwest Japan ranged from 0.8 × 108 to 2.7 × 109 atoms g-1, and minimum absolute ages were estimated by inventory of meteoric 10Be. The results are follows: Red soils on Toyota derived from granite (⩽25 ka), Kashii derived from Tertiary shale (⩽24 ka), Akiyoshidai derived from limestone (⩽110 ka), Okinawa Island derived from Kunigami gravel bed (⩽9 ka) and Ogasawara Island derived from agglomerate and Boninite (⩽22 and ⩽7 ka) were obtained, respectively. Soil age except with Akiyoshidai indicated younger age. It suggested that the loss of 10Be from the soil was caused by leaching of 10Be or by soil erosion, and 10Be is susceptible to leaching out from these Red soils under the humid climate condition such as Southwest Japan.

Population ecology of the mallard: VII. Distribution and derivation of the harvest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munro, Robert E.; Kimball, Charles F.

1982-01-01

This is the seventh in a series of comprehensive reports on population ecology of the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) in North America. Banding records for 1961-1975 were used, together with information from previous reports in this series, to estimate annual and average preseason age and sex structure of the mallard population and patterns of harvest distribution and derivation. Age ratios in the pre-season population averaged 0.98 immatures per adult and ranged from 0.75 to 1.44. The adult male per female ration averaged 1.42. The young male per female ratio average 1.01. Geographic and annual differences in recovery distributions were associated with age, sex, and years after banding. Such variation might indicate that survival or band recovery rates, or both, change as a function of number of years after banding, and that estimates of these rates might thus be affected. Distribution of the mallard harvest from 16 major breeding ground reference areas to States, Provinces, and flyways is tabulated and illustrated. Seasonal (weekly) breeding ground derivation of the harvest within States and Provinces from the 16 reference areas also is tabulated. Harvest distributions, derivation, and similarity of derivation between harvest areas are summarily illustrated with maps. Derivation of harvest appears to be consistent throughout the hunting season in the middle and south central United States, encompassing States in both the Central and Mississippi flyways. However, weekly derivation patterns for most northern States suggest that early dates of hunting result in relatively greater harvest of locally derived mallard, in contrast to birds from more northern breeding areas.

Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, G.S.; Link, W.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Richkus, K.D.; Boomer, G. Scott

2010-01-01

Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.

Conditional survival of all primary brain tumor patients by age, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Berbaum, Michael L; Davis, Faith G

2011-01-01

Survival statistics commonly reflect survival from the time of diagnosis but do not take into account survival already achieved after a diagnosis. The objective of this study was to provide conditional survival estimates for brain tumor patients as a more accurate measure of survival for those who have already survived for a specified amount of time after diagnosis. Data on primary malignant and nonmalignant brain tumor cases diagnosed from 1985-2005 from selected SEER state cancer registries were obtained. Relative survival up to 15 years postdiagnosis and varying relative conditional survival rates were computed using the life-table method. The overall 1-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis was 67.8% compared to the 6-month relative conditional survival rate of 85.7% for 6-month survivors (the probability of surviving to 1 year given survival to 6 months). The 10-year overall relative survival rate was 49.5% from time of diagnosis compared to the 8-year relative conditional survival rate of 79.2% for 2-year survivors. Conditional survival estimates and standard survival estimates varied by histology, behavior, and age at diagnosis. The 5-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis for glioblastoma was 3.6% compared to the 3-year relative conditional survival rate of 36.4% for 2-year survivors. For most nonmalignant tumors, the difference between relative survival and the corresponding conditional survival estimates were minimal. Older age groups had greater numeric gains in survival but lower conditional survival estimates than other age groups. Similar findings were seen for other conditional survival intervals. Conditional survival is a useful disease surveillance measure for clinicians and brain tumor survivors to provide them with better 'real-time' estimates and hope. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Evaluation of stratospheric age of air from CF4, C2F6, C3F8, CHF3, HFC-125, HFC-227ea and SF6; implications for the calculations of halocarbon lifetimes, fractional release factors and ozone depletion potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leedham Elvidge, Emma; Bönisch, Harald; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Engel, Andreas; Fraser, Paul J.; Gallacher, Eileen; Langenfelds, Ray; Mühle, Jens; Oram, David E.; Ray, Eric A.; Ridley, Anna R.; Röckmann, Thomas; Sturges, William T.; Weiss, Ray F.; Laube, Johannes C.

2018-03-01

In a changing climate, potential stratospheric circulation changes require long-term monitoring. Stratospheric trace gas measurements are often used as a proxy for stratospheric circulation changes via the mean age of air values derived from them. In this study, we investigated five potential age of air tracers - the perfluorocarbons CF4, C2F6 and C3F8 and the hydrofluorocarbons CHF3 (HFC-23) and HFC-125 - and compare them to the traditional tracer SF6 and a (relatively) shorter-lived species, HFC-227ea. A detailed uncertainty analysis was performed on mean ages derived from these new tracers to allow us to confidently compare their efficacy as age tracers to the existing tracer, SF6. Our results showed that uncertainties associated with the mean age derived from these new age tracers are similar to those derived from SF6, suggesting that these alternative compounds are suitable in this respect for use as age tracers. Independent verification of the suitability of these age tracers is provided by a comparison between samples analysed at the University of East Anglia and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. All five tracers give younger mean ages than SF6, a discrepancy that increases with increasing mean age. Our findings qualitatively support recent work that suggests that the stratospheric lifetime of SF6 is significantly less than the previous estimate of 3200 years. The impact of these younger mean ages on three policy-relevant parameters - stratospheric lifetimes, fractional release factors (FRFs) and ozone depletion potentials - is investigated in combination with a recently improved methodology to calculate FRFs. Updates to previous estimations for these parameters are provided.

Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

2010-01-01

We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in formulating harvest management strategies.

Aortic pulse wave velocity and reflecting distance estimation from peripheral waveforms in humans: detection of age- and exercise training-related differences.

PubMed

Pierce, Gary L; Casey, Darren P; Fiedorowicz, Jess G; Seals, Douglas R; Curry, Timothy B; Barnes, Jill N; Wilson, DeMaris R; Stauss, Harald M

2013-07-01

We hypothesized that demographic/anthropometric parameters can be used to estimate effective reflecting distance (EfRD), required to derive aortic pulse wave velocity (APWV), a prognostic marker of cardiovascular risk, from peripheral waveforms and that such estimates can discriminate differences in APWV and EfRD with aging and habitual endurance exercise in healthy adults. Ascending aortic pressure waveforms were derived from peripheral waveforms (brachial artery pressure, n = 25; and finger volume pulse, n = 15) via a transfer function and then used to determine the time delay between forward- and backward-traveling waves (Δtf-b). True EfRDs were computed as directly measured carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CFPWV) × 1/2Δtf-b and then used in regression analysis to establish an equation for EfRD based on demographic/anthropometric data (EfRD = 0.173·age + 0.661·BMI + 34.548 cm, where BMI is body mass index). We found good agreement between true and estimated APWV (Pearson's R² = 0.43; intraclass correlation = 0.64; both P < 0.05) and EfRD (R² = 0.24; intraclass correlation = 0.40; both P < 0.05). In young sedentary (22 ± 2 years, n = 6), older sedentary (62 ± 1 years, n = 24), and older endurance-trained (61 ± 2 years, n = 14) subjects, EfRD (from demographic/anthropometric parameters), APWV, and 1/2Δtf-b (from brachial artery pressure waveforms) were 52.0 ± 0.5, 61.8 ± 0.4, and 60.6 ± 0.5 cm; 6.4 ± 0.3, 9.6 ± 0.2, and 8.1 ± 0.2 m/s; and 82 ± 3, 65 ± 1 and 76 ± 2 ms (all P < 0.05), respectively. Our results demonstrate that APWV derived from peripheral waveforms using age and BMI to estimate EfRD correlates with CFPWV in healthy adults. This method can reliably detect the distal shift of the reflecting site with age and the increase in APWV with sedentary aging that is attenuated with habitual endurance exercise.

Age estimation by canines' pulp/tooth ratio in an Iranian population using digital panoramic radiography.

PubMed

Dehghani, Mahdieh; Shadkam, Elaheh; Ahrari, Farzaneh; Dehghani, Mahboobe

2018-04-01

Age estimation in adults is an important issue in forensic science. This study aimed to estimate the chronological age of Iranians by means of pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of canines in digital panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of panoramic radiographs of 271 male and female subjects aged 16-64 years. The pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of upper and lower canines was calculated by AutoCAD software. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis. There was a significant and inverse correlation between age and pulp/tooth area ratio of upper and lower canines (r=-0.794 for upper canine and r=-0.282 for lower canine; p-value<0.001). Linear regression equations were derived separately for upper, lower and both canines. The mean difference between actual and estimated age using upper canine was 6.07±1.7. The results showed that the pulp/tooth area ratios of canines are a reliable method for age estimation in Iranians. The pulp/tooth area ratio of upper canine was better correlated with chronological age than that of lower canine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aging persons' estimates of vehicular motion.

PubMed

Schiff, W; Oldak, R; Shah, V

1992-12-01

Estimated arrival times of moving autos were examined in relation to viewer age, gender, motion trajectory, and velocity. Direct push-button judgments were compared with verbal estimates derived from velocity and distance, which were based on assumptions that perceivers compute arrival time from perceived distance and velocity. Experiment 1 showed that direct estimates of younger Ss were most accurate. Older women made the shortest (highly cautious) estimates of when cars would arrive. Verbal estimates were much lower than direct estimates, with little correlation between them. Experiment 2 extended target distances and velocities of targets, with the results replicating the main findings of Experiment 1. Judgment accuracy increased with target velocity, and verbal estimates were again poorer estimates of arrival time than direct ones, with different patterns of findings. Using verbal estimates to approximate judgments in traffic situations appears questionable.

Variation between last-menstrual-period and clinical estimates of gestational age in vital records.

PubMed

Qin, Cheng; Hsia, Jason; Berg, Cynthia J

2008-03-15

An accurate assessment of gestational age is vital to population-based research and surveillance in maternal and infant health. However, the quality of gestational age measurements derived from birth certificates has been in question. Using the 2002 US public-use natality file, the authors examined the agreement between estimates of gestational age based on the last menstrual period (LMP) and clinical estimates in vital records across durations of gestation and US states and explored reasons for disagreement. Agreement between the LMP and the clinical estimate of gestational age varied substantially across gestations and among states. Preterm births were more likely than term births to have disagreement between the two estimates. Maternal age, maternal education, initiation of prenatal care, order of livebirth, and use of ultrasound had significant independent effects on the disagreement between the two measures, regardless of gestational age, but these factors made little difference in the magnitude of gestational age group differences. Information available on birth certificates was not sufficient to understand this disparity. The lowest agreement between the LMP and the clinical estimate was observed among preterm infants born at 28-36 weeks' gestation, who accounted for more than 90% of total preterm births. This finding deserves particular attention and further investigation.

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Applicability of Cameriere's and Drusini's age estimation methods to a sample of Turkish adults.

PubMed

Hatice, Boyacioglu Dogru; Nihal, Avcu; Nursel, Akkaya; Humeyra Ozge, Yilanci; Goksuluk, Dincer

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the applicability of Drusini's and Cameriere's methods to a sample of Turkish people. Panoramic images of 200 individuals were allocated into two groups as study and test groups and examined by two observers. Tooth coronal indexes (TCI), which is the ratio between coronal pulp cavity height and crown height, were calculated in the mandibular first and second premolars and molars. Pulp/tooth area ratios (ARs) were calculated in the maxillary and mandibular canine teeth. Study group measurements were used to derive a regression model. Test group measurements were used to evaluate the accuracy of the regression model. Pearson's correlation coefficients and regression analysis were used. The correlations between TCIs and age were -0.230, -0.301, -0.344 and -0.257 for mandibular first premolar, second premolar, first molar and second molar, respectively. Those for the maxillary canine (MX) and mandibular canine (MN) ARs were -0.716 and -0.514, respectively. The MX ARs were used to build the linear regression model that explained 51.2% of the total variation, with a standard error of 9.23 years. The mean error of the estimates in test group was 8 years and age of 64% of the individuals were estimated with an error of <±10 years which is acceptable in forensic age prediction. The low correlation coefficients between age and TCI indicate that Drusini's method was not applicable to the estimation of age in a Turkish population. Using Cameriere's method, we derived a regression model.

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

PubMed Central

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-01-01

Purpose This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. PMID:27051633

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

PubMed

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-03-01

This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

Anthropometrically estimated total body water volumes are larger than modeled urea volume in chronic hemodialysis patients: effects of age, race, and gender.

PubMed

Daugirdas, John T; Greene, Tom; Depner, Thomas A; Chumlea, Cameron; Rocco, Michael J; Chertow, Glenn M

2003-09-01

The modeled volume of urea distribution (Vm) in intermittently hemodialyzed patients is often compared with total body water (TBW) volume predicted from population studies of patient anthropometrics (Vant). Using data from the HEMO Study, we compared Vm determined by both blood-side and dialysate-side urea kinetic models with Vant as calculated by the Watson, Hume-Weyers, and Chertow anthropometric equations. Median levels of dialysate-based Vm and blood-based Vm agreed (43% and 44% of body weight, respectively). These volumes were lower than anthropometric estimates of TBW, which had median values of 52% to 55% of body weight for the three formulas evaluated. The difference between the Watson equation for TBW and modeled urea volume was greater in Caucasians (19%) than in African Americans (13%). Correlations between Vm and Vant determined by each of the three anthropometric estimation equations were similar; but Vant derived from the Watson formula had a slightly higher correlation with Vm. The difference between Vm and the anthropometric formulas was greatest with the Chertow equation, less with the Hume-Weyers formula, and least with the Watson estimate. The age term in the Watson equation for men that adjusts Vant downward with increasing age reduced an age effect on the difference between Vant and Vm in men. The findings show that kinetically derived values for V from blood-side and dialysate-side modeling are similar, and that these modeled urea volumes are lower by a substantial amount than anthropometric estimates of TBW. The higher values for anthropometry-derived TBW in hemodialyzed patients could be due to measurement errors. However, the possibility exists that TBW space is contracted in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or that the TBW space and the urea distribution space are not identical.

Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

PubMed

Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

2010-11-01

Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

Mass and age of red giant branch stars observed with LAMOST and Kepler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yaqian; Xiang, Maosheng; Bi, Shaolan; Liu, Xiaowei; Yu, Jie; Hon, Marc; Sharma, Sanjib; Li, Tanda; Huang, Yang; Liu, Kang; Zhang, Xianfei; Li, Yaguang; Ge, Zhishuai; Tian, Zhijia; Zhang, Jinghua; Zhang, Jianwei

2018-04-01

Obtaining accurate and precise masses and ages for large numbers of giant stars is of great importance for unraveling the assemblage history of the Galaxy. In this paper, we estimate masses and ages of 6940 red giant branch (RGB) stars with asteroseismic parameters deduced from Kepler photometry and stellar atmospheric parameters derived from LAMOST spectra. The typical uncertainties of mass is a few per cent, and that of age is ˜20 per cent. The sample stars reveal two separate sequences in the age-[α/Fe] relation - a high-α sequence with stars older than ˜8 Gyr and a low-α sequence composed of stars with ages ranging from younger than 1 Gyr to older than 11 Gyr. We further investigate the feasibility of deducing ages and masses directly from LAMOST spectra with a machine learning method based on kernel based principal component analysis, taking a sub-sample of these RGB stars as a training data set. We demonstrate that ages thus derived achieve an accuracy of ˜24 per cent. We also explored the feasibility of estimating ages and masses based on the spectroscopically measured carbon and nitrogen abundances. The results are quite satisfactory and significantly improved compared to the previous studies.

An overview of age estimation in forensic anthropology: perspectives and practical considerations.

PubMed

Márquez-Grant, Nicholas

2015-01-01

Information on methods of age estimation in physical anthropology, in particular with regard to age-at-death from human skeletal remains, is widely available in the literature. However, the practicalities and real challenges faced in forensic casework are not always highlighted. To provide a practitioner's perspective, regarding age estimation in forensic anthropology (both in the living as well as the dead), with an emphasis on the types of cases, the value of such work and its challenges and limitations. The paper reviews the current literature on age estimation with a focus on forensic anthropology, but it also brings the author's personal perspective derived from a number of forensic cases. Although much is known about what methods to use, but not always how to apply them, little attention has been given in the literature to the real practicalities faced by forensic anthropologists, for example: the challenges in different types of scenarios; how to report age estimations; responsibilities; and ethical concerns. This paper gathers some of these aspects into one overview which includes the value of such work and the practical challenges, not necessarily with the methods themselves, but also with regard to how these are applied in the different cases where age estimation is required.

Reducing uncertainty and increasing consistency: technical improvements to forest carbon pool estimation using the national forest inventory of the US

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; G.M. Domke; J. Coulston; M.B. Russell; J.A. Smith; C.H. Perry; S.M. Ogle; S. Healey; A. Gray

2015-01-01

The FIA program does not directly measure forest C stocks. Instead, a combination of empirically derived C estimates (e.g., standing live and dead trees) and models (e.g., understory C stocks related to stand age and forest type) are used to estimate forest C stocks. A series of recent refinements in FIA estimation procedures have sought to reduce the uncertainty...

Three ages of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Charles A.; Coombs, Cassandra R.

1989-01-01

A central question for any planet is the age of its surface. Based on comparative planetological arguments, Venus should be as young and active as the Earth (Wood and Francis). The detection of probable impact craters in the Venera radar images provides a tool for estimating the age of the surface of Venus. Assuming somewhat different crater production rates, Bazilevskiy et al. derived an age of 1 + or - 0.5 billion years, and Schaber et al. and Wood and Francis estimated an age of 200 to 400 million years. The known impact craters are not randomly distributed, however, thus some area must be older and others younger than this average age. Ages were derived for major geologic units on Venus using the Soviet catalog of impact craters (Bazilevskiy et al.), and the most accessible geologic unit map (Bazilevskiy). The crater counts are presented for (diameters greater than 20 km), areas, and crater densities for the 7 terrain units and coronae. The procedure for examining the distribution of craters is superior to the purely statistical approaches of Bazilevskiy et al. and Plaut and Arvidson because the bins are larger (average size 16 x 10(6) sq km) and geologically significant. Crater densities define three distinct groups: relatively heavily cratered (Lakshmi, mountain belts), moderately cratered (smooth and rolling plains, ridge belts, and tesserae), and essentially uncratered (coronae and domed uplands). Following Schaber et al., Grieve's terrestrial cratering rate of 5.4 + or - 2.7 craters greater than 20 km/10(9) yrs/10(6) sq km was used to calculate ages for the geologic units on Venus. To improve statistics, the data was aggregated into the three crater density groups, deriving the ages. For convenience, the three similar age groups are given informal time stratigraphic unit names, from youngest to oldest: Ulfrunian, Sednaian, Lakshmian.

Three ages of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Charles A.; Coombs, Cassandra R.

A central question for any planet is the age of its surface. Based on comparative planetological arguments, Venus should be as young and active as the Earth (Wood and Francis). The detection of probable impact craters in the Venera radar images provides a tool for estimating the age of the surface of Venus. Assuming somewhat different crater production rates, Bazilevskiy et al. derived an age of 1 + or - 0.5 billion years, and Schaber et al. and Wood and Francis estimated an age of 200 to 400 million years. The known impact craters are not randomly distributed, however, thus some area must be older and others younger than this average age. Ages were derived for major geologic units on Venus using the Soviet catalog of impact craters (Bazilevskiy et al.), and the most accessible geologic unit map (Bazilevskiy). The crater counts are presented for (diameters greater than 20 km), areas, and crater densities for the 7 terrain units and coronae. The procedure for examining the distribution of craters is superior to the purely statistical approaches of Bazilevskiy et al. and Plaut and Arvidson because the bins are larger (average size 16 x 10(6) sq km) and geologically significant. Crater densities define three distinct groups: relatively heavily cratered (Lakshmi, mountain belts), moderately cratered (smooth and rolling plains, ridge belts, and tesserae), and essentially uncratered (coronae and domed uplands). Following Schaber et al., Grieve's terrestrial cratering rate of 5.4 + or - 2.7 craters greater than 20 km/10(9) yrs/10(6) sq km was used to calculate ages for the geologic units on Venus. To improve statistics, the data was aggregated into the three crater density groups, deriving the ages. For convenience, the three similar age groups are given informal time stratigraphic unit names, from youngest to oldest: Ulfrunian, Sednaian, Lakshmian.

A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, P.B.; Plummer, Niel; Böhlke, J.K.; Shapiro, S.D.; Hinkle, S.R.

2011-01-01

An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

Health literacy and 30-day hospital readmission after acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Bailey, Stacy Cooper; Fang, Gang; Annis, Izabela E; O'Conor, Rachel; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K; Wolf, Michael S

2015-06-11

To assess the validity of a predictive model of health literacy, and to examine the relationship between derived health literacy estimates and 30-day hospital readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Retrospective cohort study. A National Institute of Aging (NIA) study cohort of 696 adult, English-speaking primary care patients, aged 55-74 years, was used to assess the validity of derived health literacy estimates. Claims from 7733 Medicare beneficiaries hospitalised for AMI in 2008 in North Carolina and Illinois were used to investigate the association between health literacy estimates and 30-day hospital readmissions. The NIA cohort was administered 3 common health literacy assessments (Newest Vital Sign, Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults, and Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine). Health literacy estimates at the census block group level were derived via a predictive model. 30-day readmissions were measured from Medicare claims data using a validated algorithm. Fair agreement was found between derived estimates and in-person literacy assessments (Pearson Correlation coefficients: 0.38-0.51; κ scores: 0.38-0.40). Medicare enrollees with above basic literacy according to derived health literacy estimates had an 18% lower risk of a 30-day readmission (RR=0.82, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.92) and 21% lower incidence rate of 30-day readmission (IRR=0.79, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.87) than patients with basic or below basic literacy. After adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, the risk of 30-day readmission was 12% lower (p=0.03), and the incidence rate 16% lower (p<0.01) for patients with above basic literacy. Health literacy, as measured by a predictive model, was found to be a significant, independent predictor of 30-day readmissions. As a modifiable risk factor with evidence-based solutions, health literacy should be considered in readmission reduction efforts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Development of a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation (DAE) and testing of this with a separate Validation Set (VS) in a southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

2016-10-01

Many countries have recently experienced a rapid increase in the demand for forensic age estimates of unaccompanied minors. Hong Kong is a major tourist and business center where there has been an increase in the number of people intercepted with false travel documents. An accurate estimation of age is only possible when a dataset for age estimation that has been derived from the corresponding ethnic population. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop and validate a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation for southern Chinese. A total of 2306 subjects were selected from the patient archives of a large dental hospital and the chronological age for each subject was recorded. This age was assigned to each specific stage of dental development for each tooth to create a RDS. To validate this RDS, a further 484 subjects were randomly chosen from the patient archives and their dental age was assessed based on the scores from the RDS. Dental age was estimated using meta-analysis command corresponding to random effects statistical model. Chronological age (CA) and Dental Age (DA) were compared using the paired t-test. The overall difference between the chronological and dental age (CA-DA) was 0.05 years (2.6 weeks) for males and 0.03 years (1.6 weeks) for females. The paired t-test indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the chronological and dental age (p > 0.05). The validated southern Chinese reference dataset based on dental maturation accurately estimated the chronological age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Measuring forest structure along productivity gradients in the Canadian boreal with small-footprint Lidar.

PubMed

Bolton, Douglas K; Coops, Nicholas C; Wulder, Michael A

2013-08-01

The structure and productivity of boreal forests are key components of the global carbon cycle and impact the resources and habitats available for species. With this research, we characterized the relationship between measurements of forest structure and satellite-derived estimates of gross primary production (GPP) over the Canadian boreal. We acquired stand level indicators of canopy cover, canopy height, and structural complexity from nearly 25,000 km of small-footprint discrete return Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) data and compared these attributes to GPP estimates derived from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). While limited in our capacity to control for stand age, we removed recently disturbed and managed forests using information on fire history, roads, and anthropogenic change. We found that MODIS GPP was strongly linked to Lidar-derived canopy cover (r = 0.74, p < 0.01), however was only weakly related to Lidar-derived canopy height and structural complexity as these attributes are largely a function of stand age. A relationship was apparent between MODIS GPP and the maximum sampled heights derived from Lidar as growth rates and resource availability likely limit tree height in the prolonged absence of disturbance. The most structurally complex stands, as measured by the coefficient of variation of Lidar return heights, occurred where MODIS GPP was highest as productive boreal stands are expected to contain a wider range of tree heights and transition to uneven-aged structures faster than less productive stands. While MODIS GPP related near-linearly to Lidar-derived canopy cover, the weaker relationships to Lidar-derived canopy height and structural complexity highlight the importance of stand age in determining the structure of boreal forests. We conclude that an improved quantification of how both productivity and disturbance shape stand structure is needed to better understand the current state of boreal forests in Canada and how these forests are changing in response to changing climate and disturbance regimes.

BANYAN. IV. Fundamental parameters of low-mass star candidates in nearby young stellar kinematic groups—isochronal age determination using magnetic evolutionary models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malo, Lison; Doyon, René; Albert, Loïc

2014-09-01

Based on high-resolution optical spectra obtained with ESPaDOnS at Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, we determine fundamental parameters (T {sub eff}, R, L {sub bol}, log g, and metallicity) for 59 candidate members of nearby young kinematic groups. The candidates were identified through the BANYAN Bayesian inference method of Malo et al., which takes into account the position, proper motion, magnitude, color, radial velocity, and parallax (when available) to establish a membership probability. The derived parameters are compared to Dartmouth magnetic evolutionary models and field stars with the goal of constraining the age of our candidates. We find that, in general, low-mass starsmore » in our sample are more luminous and have inflated radii compared to older stars, a trend expected for pre-main-sequence stars. The Dartmouth magnetic evolutionary models show a good fit to observations of field K and M stars, assuming a magnetic field strength of a few kG, as typically observed for cool stars. Using the low-mass members of the β Pictoris moving group, we have re-examined the age inconsistency problem between lithium depletion age and isochronal age (Hertzspring-Russell diagram). We find that the inclusion of the magnetic field in evolutionary models increases the isochronal age estimates for the K5V-M5V stars. Using these models and field strengths, we derive an average isochronal age between 15 and 28 Myr and we confirm a clear lithium depletion boundary from which an age of 26 ± 3 Myr is derived, consistent with previous age estimates based on this method.« less

Quiescent luminous red galaxies as cosmic chronometers: on the significance of mass and environmental dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, G. C.; Lu, Y. J.; Xie, L. Z.; Chen, X. L.; Zhao, Y. H.

2016-01-01

Context. Massive luminous red galaxies (LRGs) are believed to be evolving passively and can be used as cosmic chronometers to estimate the Hubble constant (the differential age method). However, different LRGs may be located in different environments. The environmental effects, if any, on the mean ages of LRGs, and the ages of the oldest LRGs at different redshift, may limit the use of the LRGs as cosmic chronometers. Aims: We aim to investigate the environmental and mass dependence of the formation of "quiescent" LRGs, selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data release 8, and to pave the way for using LRGs as cosmic chronometers. Methods: Using the population synthesis software STARLIGHT, we derive the stellar populations in each LRG through the full spectrum fitting and obtain the mean age distribution and the mean star formation history (SFH) of those LRGs. Results: We find that there is no apparent dependence of the mean age and the SFH of quiescent LRGs on their environment, while the ages of those quiescent LRGs depend weakly on their mass. We compare the SFHs of the SDSS LRGs with those obtained from a semi-analytical galaxy formation model and find that they are roughly consistent with each other if we consider the errors in the STARLIGHT-derived ages. We find that a small fraction of later star formation in LRGs leads to a systematical overestimation (~28%) of the Hubble constant by the differential age method, and the systematical errors in the STARLIGHT-derived ages may lead to an underestimation (~ 16%) of the Hubble constant. However, these errors can be corrected by a detailed study of the mean SFH of those LRGs and by calibrating the STARLIGHT-derived ages with those obtained independently by other methods. Conclusions: The environmental effects do not play a significant role in the age estimates of quiescent LRGs; and the quiescent LRGs as a population can be used securely as cosmic chronometers, and the Hubble constant can be measured with high precision by using the differential age method.

Estimating age-based antiretroviral therapy costs for HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings based on World Health Organization weight-based dosing recommendations.

PubMed

Doherty, Kathleen; Essajee, Shaffiq; Penazzato, Martina; Holmes, Charles; Resch, Stephen; Ciaranello, Andrea

2014-05-02

Pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been shown to substantially reduce morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected infants and children. To accurately project program costs, analysts need accurate estimations of antiretroviral drug (ARV) costs for children. However, the costing of pediatric antiretroviral therapy is complicated by weight-based dosing recommendations which change as children grow. We developed a step-by-step methodology for estimating the cost of pediatric ARV regimens for children ages 0-13 years old. The costing approach incorporates weight-based dosing recommendations to provide estimated ARV doses throughout childhood development. Published unit drug costs are then used to calculate average monthly drug costs. We compared our derived monthly ARV costs to published estimates to assess the accuracy of our methodology. The estimates of monthly ARV costs are provided for six commonly used first-line pediatric ARV regimens, considering three possible care scenarios. The costs derived in our analysis for children were fairly comparable to or slightly higher than available published ARV drug or regimen estimates. The methodology described here can be used to provide an accurate estimation of pediatric ARV regimen costs for cost-effectiveness analysts to project the optimum packages of care for HIV-infected children, as well as for program administrators and budget analysts who wish to assess the feasibility of increasing pediatric ART availability in constrained budget environments.

Revised reference values for selenium intake.

PubMed

Kipp, A P; Strohm, D; Brigelius-Flohé, R; Schomburg, L; Bechthold, A; Leschik-Bonnet, E; Heseker, H

2015-10-01

The German, Austrian and Swiss nutrition societies are the joint editors of the 'reference values for nutrient intake'. They have revised the reference values for the intake of selenium and published them in February 2015. The saturation of selenoprotein P (SePP) in plasma is used as a criterion for the derivation of reference values for selenium intake in adults. For persons from selenium-deficient regions (China) SePP saturation was achieved with a daily intake of 49μg of selenium. When using the reference body weights the D-A-CH reference values are based upon, the resulting estimated value for selenium intake is 70μg/day for men and 60μg/day for women. The estimated value for selenium intake for children and adolescents is extrapolated using the estimated value for adults in relation to body weight. For infants aged 0 to under 4 months the estimated value of 10μg/day was derived from the basis of selenium intake via breast milk. For infants aged 4 to under 12 months this estimated value was used and taking into account the differences regarding body weight an estimated value of 15μg/day was derived. For lactating women compared to non-lactating women a higher reference value of 75μg/day is indicated due to the release of selenium with breast milk. The additional selenium requirement for pregnant women is negligible, so that no increased reference value is indicated. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Incidence of colorectal adenomas: birth cohort analysis among 4.3 million participants of screening colonoscopy.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Altenhofen, Lutz; Stock, Christian; Hoffmeister, Michael

2014-09-01

Most colorectal cancers develop from adenomas. We aimed to estimate sex- and age-specific incidence rates of colorectal adenomas and to assess their potential implications for colorectal cancer screening strategies. Sex- and age-specific incidence rates of colorectal adenomas were derived by a birth cohort analysis using data from 4,322,085 screening colonoscopies conducted in Germany and recorded in a national database in 2003-2012. In addition, cumulative risks of colorectal cancer among colonoscopically neoplasm-free men and women were estimated by combining adenoma incidence rates with previously derived adenoma-colorectal cancer transition rates. Estimated annual incidence in percentage (95% confidence interval) in age groups 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, and 75-79 was 2.4 (2.2-2.6), 2.3 (2.1-2.6), 2.4 (2.1-2.6), 2.2 (1.8-2.5), and 1.8 (1.2-2.3) among men, and 1.4 (1.3-1.5), 1.5 (1.4-1.7), 1.6 (1.4-1.8), 1.6 (1.3-1.8), and 1.2 (0.8-1.6) among women. Estimated 10- and 15-year risks of clinically manifest colorectal cancer were 0.1% and 0.5% or lower, respectively, in all groups assessed. Annual incidence rates of colorectal adenomas are below 2.5% and 2% among men and women, respectively, and show little variation by age. Risk of clinically manifest colorectal cancer is expected to be very small within 10 years and beyond after negative colonoscopy for men and women at all ages. The use of rescreening after a negative screening colonoscopy above 60 years of age may be very limited. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Carbon Consequences of Forest Disturbance and Recovery Across the Conterminous United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Christopher A.; Collatz, G. James; Masek, Jeffrey; Goward, Samuel N.

2012-01-01

Forests of North America are thought to constitute a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has developed a large data base of stock changes derived from consecutive estimates of growing stock volume in the US. These data reveal a large and relatively stable increase in forest carbon stocks over the last two decades or more. The mechanisms underlying this national increase in forest stocks may include recovery of forests from past disturbances, net increases in forest area, and growth enhancement driven by climate or fertilization by CO2 and Nitrogen. Here we estimate the forest recovery component of the observed stock changes using FIA data on the age structure of US forests and carbon stocks as a function of age. The latter are used to parameterize forest disturbance and recovery processes in a carbon cycle model. We then apply resulting disturbance/recovery dynamics to landscapes and regions based on the forest age distributions. The analysis centers on 28 representative climate settings spread about forested regions of the conterminous US. We estimate carbon fluxes for each region and propagate uncertainties in calibration data through to the predicted fluxes. The largest recovery-driven carbon sinks are found in the South central, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions, with spatially averaged net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 100 g C / square m / a driven by forest age structure. Carbon sinks from recovery in the Northeast and Northern Lake States remain moderate to large owing to the legacy of historical clearing and relatively low modern disturbance rates from harvest and fire. At the continental scale, we find a conterminous U.S. forest NEP of only 0.16 Pg C/a from age structure in 2005, or only 0.047 Pg C/a of forest stock change after accounting for fire emissions and harvest transfers. Recent estimates of NEP derived from inventory stock change, harvest, and fire data show twice the NEP sink we derive from forest age distributions. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies including modeling errors and the possibility of climate and/or fertilization (CO2 or N) growth enhancements.

Estimating age from the pubic symphysis: A new component-based system.

PubMed

Dudzik, Beatrix; Langley, Natalie R

2015-12-01

The os pubis is one of the most widely used areas of the skeleton for age estimation. Current pubic symphyseal aging methods for adults combine the morphology associated with the developmental changes that occur into the mid-30s with the degenerative changes that span the latter portion of the age spectrum. The most popular methods are phase-based; however, the definitions currently used to estimate age intervals may not be adequately defined and/or accurately understood by burgeoning researchers and seasoned practitioners alike. This study identifies patterns of growth and maturation in the pubic symphysis to derive more precise age estimates for individuals under 40 years of age. Emphasis is placed on young adults to provide more informative descriptions of epiphyseal changes associated with the final phases of skeletal maturation before degeneration commences. This study investigated macroscopic changes in forensically relevant modern U.S. samples of known age, sex, and ancestry from the Maricopa County Forensic Science Center in Phoenix, Arizona as well as donated individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic and Donated Collections at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (n=237). Age-related traits at locations with ontogenetic and biomechanical relevance were broken into components and scored. The components included the pubic tubercle, the superior apex of the face, the ventral and dorsal demifaces, and the ventral and dorsal symphyseal margins. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate the transition ages between the morphological states of each component. The categorical scores and transition analysis ages were subjected to multinomial logistic regression and decision tree analysis to derive accurate age interval estimates. Results of these analyses were used to construct a decision tree-style flow chart for practitioner use. High inter-rater agreement of the individual component traits (linear weighted kappa values ≥0.665 for all traits in the decision tree) indicates that the method offers unambiguous scoring for age-related changes of the pubic symphysis. Validation of the flow chart on a sample of 47 individuals provided by the Montana State Crime Lab yielded 94% accuracy overall, indicating that the method has the potential to deliver precise and accurate age estimates of individuals prior to the onset of advanced degenerative changes. A pubic symphysis that exhibits epiphyseal changes and/or billowing is suitable for this method; a pubic symphysis that exhibits degenerative changes (i.e. porosity and/or rim erosion) is not suitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Gas and Gas Hydrate Accumulation in Marine Sediments Using a K-Nearest Neighbor Machine-Learning Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, W. T.; Runyan, T. E.; Palmsten, M.; Dale, J.; Crawford, C.

2016-12-01

Natural Gas (primarily methane) and gas hydrate accumulations require certain bio-geochemical, as well as physical conditions, some of which are poorly sampled and/or poorly understood. We exploit recent advances in the prediction of seafloor porosity and heat flux via machine learning techniques (e.g. Random forests and Bayesian networks) to predict the occurrence of gas and subsequently gas hydrate in marine sediments. The prediction (actually guided interpolation) of key parameters we use in this study is a K-nearest neighbor technique. KNN requires only minimal pre-processing of the data and predictors, and requires minimal run-time input so the results are almost entirely data-driven. Specifically we use new estimates of sedimentation rate and sediment type, along with recently derived compaction modeling to estimate profiles of porosity and age. We combined the compaction with seafloor heat flux to estimate temperature with depth and geologic age, which, with estimates of organic carbon, and models of methanogenesis yield limits on the production of methane. Results include geospatial predictions of gas (and gas hydrate) accumulations, with quantitative estimates of uncertainty. The Generic Earth Modeling System (GEMS) we have developed to derive the machine learning estimates is modular and easily updated with new algorithms or data.

Quantification of long-term erosion rates from root exposure/tree age relationships in an alpine meadow catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scuderi, Louis A.

2017-04-01

Erosion rates derived using dendrogeomorphology have been used to quantify slope degradation in many localities globally. However, with the exception of the western United States, most of these estimates are derived from short-lived trees whose lifetimes may not adequately reflect the complete range of slope processes which can include erosion, deposition, impacts of extreme events and even long-term hiatuses. Erosion rate estimates at a given site using standard techniques therefore reflect censored local point erosion estimates rather than long-term rates. We applied a modified dendrogeomorphic approach to rapidly estimate erosion rates from dbh/age relationships to assess the difference between short and long-term rates and found that the mean short-term rate was 0.13 cm/yr with high variability, while the uncensored long-term rate was 0.06 cm/yr. The results indicate that rates calculated from short-lived trees, while possibly appropriate for local short-term point estimates of erosion, are highly variable and may overestimate regional long-term rates by > 50%. While these findings do not invalidate the use of dendrogeomorphology to estimate erosion rates they do suggest that care must be taken to select older trees that incorporate a range of slope histories in order to best approximate regional long-term rates.

Comparison of Remote Sensing and Fixed-Site Monitoring Approaches for Examining Air Pollution and Health in a National Study Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prud'homme, Genevieve; Dobbin, Nina A.; Sun, Liu; Burnet, Richard T.; Martin, Randall V.; Davidson, Andrew; Cakmak, Sabit; Villeneuve, Paul J.; Lamsal, Lok N.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron;

Improving tree age estimates derived from increment cores: a case study of red pine

Treesearch

Shawn Fraver; John B. Bradford; Brian J. Palik

2011-01-01

Accurate tree ages are critical to a range of forestry and ecological studies. However, ring counts from increment cores, if not corrected for the years between the root collar and coring height, can produce sizeable age errors. The magnitude of errors is influenced by both the height at which the core is extracted and the growth rate. We destructively sampled saplings...

White dwarf stars and the age of the Galactic disk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, M. A.

1990-01-01

The history of the Galaxy is written in its oldest stars, the white dwarf (WD) stars. Significant limits can be placed on both the Galactic age and star formation history. A wide range of input WD model sequences is used to derive the current limits to the age estimates suggested by fitting to the observed falloff in the WD luminosity function. The results suggest that the star formation rate over the history of the Galaxy has been relatively constant, and that the disk age lies in the range 6-12 billion years, depending upon the assumed structure of WD stars, and in particular on the core composition and surface helium layer mass. Using plausible mixed C/O core input models, the estimates for the disk age range from 8-10.5 Gyr, i.e.,sustantially younger than most age estimates for the halo globular clusters. After speculating on the significance of the results, expected observational and theoretical refinements which will further enhance the reliability of the method are discussed.

Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars.

PubMed

Lewis, Amitha J; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K P; Manaktala, Nidhi

2015-01-01

The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R (2) varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development.

The Ages of the Thin Disk, Thick Disk, and the Halo from Nearby White Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilic, Mukremin; Munn, Jeffrey A.; Harris, Hugh C.; von Hippel, Ted; Liebert, James W.; Williams, Kurtis A.; Jeffery, Elizabeth; DeGennaro, Steven

2017-03-01

We present a detailed analysis of the white dwarf luminosity functions derived from the local 40 pc sample and the deep proper motion catalog of Munn et al. Many previous studies have ignored the contribution of thick disk white dwarfs to the Galactic disk luminosity function, which results in an erroneous age measurement. We demonstrate that the ratio of thick/thin disk white dwarfs is roughly 20% in the local sample. Simultaneously fitting for both disk components, we derive ages of 6.8-7.0 Gyr for the thin disk and 8.7 ± 0.1 Gyr for the thick disk from the local 40 pc sample. Similarly, we derive ages of 7.4-8.2 Gyr for the thin disk and 9.5-9.9 Gyr for the thick disk from the deep proper motion catalog, which shows no evidence of a deviation from a constant star formation rate in the past 2.5 Gyr. We constrain the time difference between the onset of star formation in the thin disk and the thick disk to be {1.6}-0.4+0.3 Gyr. The faint end of the luminosity function for the halo white dwarfs is less constrained, resulting in an age estimate of {12.5}-3.4+1.4 Gyr for the Galactic inner halo. This is the first time that ages for all three major components of the Galaxy have been obtained from a sample of field white dwarfs that is large enough to contain significant numbers of disk and halo objects. The resultant ages agree reasonably well with the age estimates for the oldest open and globular clusters.

Estimates of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to population-based mammography screening in South Australia after adjustment for lead time effects.

PubMed

Beckmann, Kerri; Duffy, Stephen W; Lynch, John; Hiller, Janet; Farshid, Gelareh; Roder, David

2015-09-01

To estimate over-diagnosis due to population-based mammography screening using a lead time adjustment approach, with lead time measures based on symptomatic cancers only. Women aged 40-84 in 1989-2009 in South Australia eligible for mammography screening. Numbers of observed and expected breast cancer cases were compared, after adjustment for lead time. Lead time effects were modelled using age-specific estimates of lead time (derived from interval cancer rates and predicted background incidence, using maximum likelihood methods) and screening sensitivity, projected background breast cancer incidence rates (in the absence of screening), and proportions screened, by age and calendar year. Lead time estimates were 12, 26, 43 and 53 months, for women aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 respectively. Background incidence rates were estimated to have increased by 0.9% and 1.2% per year for invasive and all breast cancer. Over-diagnosis among women aged 40-84 was estimated at 7.9% (0.1-12.0%) for invasive cases and 12.0% (5.7-15.4%) when including ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS). We estimated 8% over-diagnosis for invasive breast cancer and 12% inclusive of DCIS cancers due to mammography screening among women aged 40-84. These estimates may overstate the extent of over-diagnosis if the increasing prevalence of breast cancer risk factors has led to higher background incidence than projected. © The Author(s) 2015.

Deriving Biomass Estimation Equations for Seven Plantation Hardwood Species

Treesearch

Bryce E. Schlaegel; Harvey E. Kennedy

1986-01-01

Trees of seven species sampled from a plantation over 7 years were used to derive weight equations to predict primary tree components. The seven species required the use of five different model forms to insure the greatest precision. Regardless of model form, all equations include variables for tree diameter, tree height, age, and number of trees planted. The most...

Improving Assessment of Lifetime Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure in Epidemiologic Studies: Comparison of Ultraviolet Exposure Assessment Methods in a Nationwide United States Occupational Cohort.

PubMed

Little, Mark P; Tatalovich, Zaria; Linet, Martha S; Fang, Michelle; Kendall, Gerald M; Kimlin, Michael G

2018-06-13

Solar ultraviolet radiation is the primary risk factor for skin cancers and sun-related eye disorders. Estimates of individual ambient ultraviolet irradiance derived from ground-based solar measurements and from satellite measurements have rarely been compared. Using self-reported residential history from 67,189 persons in a nationwide occupational US radiologic technologists cohort, we estimated ambient solar irradiance using data from ground-based meters and noontime satellite measurements. The mean distance-moved from city of longest residence in childhood increased from 137.6 km at ages 13-19 to 870.3 km at ages ≥65, with corresponding increases in absolute latitude-difference moved. At ages 20/40/60/80, the Pearson/Spearman correlation coefficients of ground-based and satellite-derived solar potential ultraviolet exposure, using irradiance and cumulative radiant-exposure metrics, were high (=0.87-0.92). There was also moderate correlation (Pearson/Spearman correlation coefficients=0.51-0.60) between irradiance at birth and at last-known address, for ground-based and satellite data. Satellite-based lifetime estimates of ultraviolet radiation were generally 14-15% lower than ground-based estimates, albeit with substantial uncertainties, possibly because ground-based estimates incorporate fluctuations in cloud and ozone, which are incompletely incorporated in the single noontime satellite-overpass ultraviolet value. If confirmed elsewhere, the findings suggest that ground-based estimates may improve exposure-assessment accuracy and potentially provide new insights into ultraviolet-radiation-disease relationships in epidemiologic studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A method to estimate stellar ages from kinematical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida-Fernandes, F.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.

2018-05-01

We present a method to build a probability density function (PDF) for the age of a star based on its peculiar velocities U, V, and W and its orbital eccentricity. The sample used in this work comes from the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) that contains the spatial velocities, orbital eccentricities, and isochronal ages for about 14 000 stars. Using the GCS stars, we fitted the parameters that describe the relations between the distributions of kinematical properties and age. This parametrization allows us to obtain an age probability from the kinematical data. From this age PDF, we estimate an individual average age for the star using the most likely age and the expected age. We have obtained the stellar age PDF for the age of 9102 stars from the GCS and have shown that the distribution of individual ages derived from our method is in good agreement with the distribution of isochronal ages. We also observe a decline in the mean metallicity with our ages for stars younger than 7 Gyr, similar to the one observed for isochronal ages. This method can be useful for the estimation of rough stellar ages for those stars that fall in areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where isochrones are tightly crowded. As an example of this method, we estimate the age of Trappist-1, which is a M8V star, obtaining the age of t(UVW) = 12.50(+0.29 - 6.23) Gyr.

Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790-1900.

PubMed

Hacker, J David

2010-04-01

This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900-02 rural and 1900-02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends.

Measuring sleep habits without using a diary: the sleep timing questionnaire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monk, Timothy H.; Buysse, Daniel J.; Kennedy, Kathy S.; Pods, Jaime M.; DeGrazia, Jean M.; Miewald, Jean M.

2003-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To develop a single-administration instrument yielding equivalent measures of sleep to those obtained from a formal (2-week) sleep diary. DESIGN & SETTING: A single-administration Sleep riming Questionnaire (STQ) is described (and reproduced in the Appendix). Test-retest reliability was examined in 40 subjects who were given the STQ on two occasions separated by less than 1 year. Convergent validity was measured both by comparing STO-derived measures with objective measures derived from wrist actigraphy (n=23) and by comparing STQ-derived measures with other subjective measures derived from a detailed 2-week sleep diary in two nonoverlapping samples (n=101, 93). Correlations of STQ measures with age and momingness-eveningness (chronotype) were also examined. SUBJECTS: The analyses used sample sizes of 40, 23, 101, and 93 (both genders, overall age range 20y-89y). Most subjects were healthy volunteers; some Study 4 subjects were patients (enrolled in research protocols). RESULTS: Test-retest reliability for the STQ was demonstrated for estimates of bedtime (r = 0.705, p < 0.001) and waketime (r = 0.826, p < 0.001). Convergent validity using wrist actigraphy was demonstrated by correlations of 0.592 (p < 0.005) for bedtime, and of 0.769 (p < 0.001) for waketime. Diary studies indicated STQ bedtime and waketime data to be highly correlated (at about 0.8) with those obtained from a formal 2-week sleep diary. The STQ also provided data on estimated sleep latency and wake after sleep onset (WASO), which correlated reliably (at about 0.7) with average nightly ratings of these variables from a 2-week sleep diary. Mean estimated values of sleep latency and WASO from the two instruments were within 1 minute of each other. ST-derived bedtimes and waketimes correlated with both age and chronotype in the expected direction (older subjects earlier, morning types earlier). CONCLUSION: The STQ may be a reliable valid measure of sleep timing that could provide a time-efficient alternative to traditional sleep diaries.

Application of statistical shape analysis for the estimation of bone and forensic age using the shapes of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th cervical vertebrae in a young Japanese population.

PubMed

Rhee, Chang-Hoon; Shin, Sang Min; Choi, Yong-Seok; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Kim, Yong-Il; Kim, Seong-Sik; Park, Soo-Byung; Son, Woo-Sung

2015-12-01

From computed tomographic images, the dentocentral synchondrosis can be identified in the second cervical vertebra. This can demarcate the border between the odontoid process and the body of the 2nd cervical vertebra and serve as a good model for the prediction of bone and forensic age. Nevertheless, until now, there has been no application of the 2nd cervical vertebra based on the dentocentral synchondrosis. In this study, statistical shape analysis was used to build bone and forensic age estimation regression models. Following the principles of statistical shape analysis and principal components analysis, we used cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to evaluate a Japanese population (35 males and 45 females, from 5 to 19 years old). The narrowest prediction intervals among the multivariate regression models were 19.63 for bone age and 2.99 for forensic age. There was no significant difference between form space and shape space in the bone and forensic age estimation models. However, for gender comparison, the bone and forensic age estimation models for males had the higher explanatory power. This study derived an improved objective and quantitative method for bone and forensic age estimation based on only the 2nd, 3rd and 4th cervical vertebral shapes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of one-mile walk equations for the estimation of aerobic fitness in British military personnel under the age of 40 years.

PubMed

Lunt, Heather; Roiz De Sa, Daniel; Roiz De Sa, Julia; Allsopp, Adrian

2013-07-01

To provide an accurate estimate of peak oxygen uptake (VO2 peak) for British Royal Navy Personnel aged between 18 and 39, comparing a gold standard treadmill based maximal exercise test with a submaximal one-mile walk test. Two hundred military personnel consented to perform a treadmill-based VO2 peak test and two one-mile walk tests round an athletics track. The estimated VO2 peak values from three different one-mile walk equations were compared to directly measured VO2 peak values from the treadmill-based test. One hundred participants formed a validation group from which a new equation was derived and the other 100 participants formed the cross-validation group. Existing equations underestimated the VO2 peak values of the fittest personnel and overestimated the VO2 peak of the least aerobically fit by between 2% and 18%. The new equation derived from the validation group has less bias, the highest correlation with the measured values (r = 0.83), and classified the most people correctly according to the Royal Navy's Fitness Test standards, producing the fewest false positives and false negatives combined (9%). The new equation will provide a more accurate estimate of VO2 peak for a British military population aged 18 to 39. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Complexity of Advanced Glycation End Products in Foods: Where Are We Now?

PubMed

Zhu, Yingdong; Snooks, Hunter; Sang, Shengmin

2018-02-14

Recent clinical trials indicate that consumption of dietary advanced glycation end products (AGEs) may promote the development of major chronic diseases. However, the outcomes of human studies have proven inconclusive as a result of estimates of the total AGE intake being taken with a single AGE in most of the studies. In this perspective, we summarized the major types of AGEs derived from proteins, nucleic acids, and phospholipids during food processing and suggested a panel of AGEs as markers to better measure the intake of total dietary AGEs in human studies.

Estimating age-based antiretroviral therapy costs for HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings based on World Health Organization weight-based dosing recommendations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been shown to substantially reduce morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected infants and children. To accurately project program costs, analysts need accurate estimations of antiretroviral drug (ARV) costs for children. However, the costing of pediatric antiretroviral therapy is complicated by weight-based dosing recommendations which change as children grow. Methods We developed a step-by-step methodology for estimating the cost of pediatric ARV regimens for children ages 0–13 years old. The costing approach incorporates weight-based dosing recommendations to provide estimated ARV doses throughout childhood development. Published unit drug costs are then used to calculate average monthly drug costs. We compared our derived monthly ARV costs to published estimates to assess the accuracy of our methodology. Results The estimates of monthly ARV costs are provided for six commonly used first-line pediatric ARV regimens, considering three possible care scenarios. The costs derived in our analysis for children were fairly comparable to or slightly higher than available published ARV drug or regimen estimates. Conclusions The methodology described here can be used to provide an accurate estimation of pediatric ARV regimen costs for cost-effectiveness analysts to project the optimum packages of care for HIV-infected children, as well as for program administrators and budget analysts who wish to assess the feasibility of increasing pediatric ART availability in constrained budget environments. PMID:24885453

Indigenous Mobility and School Attendance in Remote Australia: Cause or Effect?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, John

2012-01-01

Despite claims of a negative impact on Indigenous school attendance due to mobility no attempt has been made to estimate the number of school-age Indigenous children away from a home base at any one time. This paper uses census data to derive such estimates for the first time. It finds that Indigenous children are mostly sedentary within their…

Fiscal consequences of changes in morbidity and mortality attributed to rotavirus immunisation.

PubMed

Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Connolly, Mark P; Postma, Maarten J; Hutubessy, Raymond C W

2013-11-04

Changes in population health status are known to influence government fiscal transfers both in terms of lost tax revenue and increased expenditure for health and social services. To estimate the fiscal impact of changes in morbidity and mortality attributed to rotavirus immunisation, we developed a government perspective model to estimate discounted net tax revenue for Ghana and Vietnam. The model derived the impact of rotavirus morbidity and mortality on lifetime productive capacity and related tax transfers, and demand for government transfers in relation to education and healthcare in immunised and non-immunised cohorts. The discounted age-specific net tax revenue was derived by deducting transfers from gross taxes and discounting for time preference. In Ghana, taking into account immunisation costs, tax and transfers, the estimated net discounted tax for the immunised cohort was estimated to generate $2.6 billion in net taxes up to age 65. In Vietnam, the net revenue attributed to the immunised cohort reached $55.17 billion suggesting an incremental benefit of approximately $29 million. We posit that the government perspective fiscal framework described here is a valid approach for estimating how governments benefit from investments in immunisation that can be considered supplementary to conventional cost-effectiveness approaches for defining value. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fundamental Properties of Co-moving Stars Observed by Gaia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bochanski, John J.; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Gagné, Jonathan; Nelson, Olivia; Coker, Kristina; Smithka, Iliya; Desir, Deion; Vasquez, Chelsea

2018-04-01

We have estimated fundamental parameters for a sample of co-moving stars observed by Gaia and identified by Oh et al. We matched the Gaia observations to the 2MASS and Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer catalogs and fit MIST isochrones to the data, deriving estimates of the mass, radius, [Fe/H], age, distance, and extinction to 9754 stars in the original sample of 10606 stars. We verify these estimates by comparing our new results to previous analyses of nearby stars, examining fiducial cluster properties, and estimating the power-law slope of the local present-day mass function. A comparison to previous studies suggests that our mass estimates are robust, while metallicity and age estimates are increasingly uncertain. We use our calculated masses to examine the properties of binaries in the sample and show that separation of the pairs dominates the observed binding energies and expected lifetimes.

Meta-analysis for deriving age- and gender-specific dose-response relationships between urinary cadmium concentration and {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulinuria under environmental exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamo, Masashi; Ono, Kyoko; Nakanishi, Junko

2006-05-15

A meta-analysis was conducted to derive age- and gender-specific dose-response relationships between urinary cadmium (Cd) concentration and {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulinuria ({beta}2MG-uria) under environmental exposure. {beta}2MG-uria was defined by a cutoff point of 1000 {mu}g {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulin/g creatinine. We proposed a model for describing the relationships among the interindividual variabilities in urinary Cd concentration, the ratio of Cd concentrations in the target organ and in urine, and the threshold Cd concentration in the target organ. The parameters in the model were determined so that good agreement might be achieved between the prevalence rates of {beta}2MG-uria reported in the literature andmore » those estimated by the model. In this analysis, only the data from the literature on populations environmentally exposed to Cd were used. Using the model and estimated parameters, the prevalence rate of {beta}2MG-uria can be estimated for an age- and gender-specific subpopulation for which the distribution of urinary Cd concentrations is known. The maximum permissible level of urinary Cd concentration was defined as the maximum geometric mean of the urinary Cd concentration in an age- and gender-specific subpopulation that would not result in a statistically significant increase in the prevalence rate of {beta}2MG-uria. This was estimated to be approximately 3 {mu}g/g creatinine for a population in a small geographical area and approximately 2 {mu}g/g creatinine for a nationwide population.« less

Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars

PubMed Central

Lewis, Amitha J.; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K. R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K. P; Manaktala, Nidhi

2015-01-01

Aim: The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Results: Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R2 varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. Conclusion: The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development. PMID:26005306

Pulp/tooth ratio of mandibular first and second molars on panoramic radiographs: An aid for forensic age estimation

PubMed Central

Shah, Palak H.; Venkatesh, Rashmi

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine and compare the accuracy of pulp/tooth ratio method in mandibular first and second molar teeth in forensic age estimation. Materials and Methods: A total 300 panoramic radiographs of the Gujarati population (187 males and 113 females) were studied. The measurements of Pulp Chamber Height (PCH) and Crown Root Trunk Height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth. The acquired data was subjected to correlation and regression. Results: The pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of both the first (r = −0.609) and second molars (r = −0.422) were significantly correlated with the age of the individual. Individual regression formulae were derived for both the teeth which were then used separately to calculate the age. The standard errors estimate (SEE) for the first and second molars were 8.84 years and 10.11 years, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between chronological and calculated age by both the teeth (P = 1.000). Conclusion: The mandibular first and second molar is a potential tool for age estimation in forensic dentistry. The pulp/tooth ratio of both the teeth is a useful method for forensic age prediction with reasonable accuracy in the Gujarati population. PMID:27555734

Origin and evolution of the Nakhla meteorite inferred from the Sm-Nd and U-Pb systematics and REE, Ba, Sr, Rb and K abundances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nakamura, N.; Unruh, D. M.; Tatsumoto, M.; Hutchison, R.

1982-01-01

Analyses of whole rock and mineral separates from the Nakhla meteorite are carried out by means of Sm-Nd and U-Tn-Pb systematics and by determining their REE, Ba, Sr, Rb, and K concentrations. Results show that the Sm-Nd age of the meteorite is 1.26 + or - 0.7 b.y., while the high initial epsilon(Nd) value of +16 suggests that Nakhla was derived from a light REE-depleted, old planetary mantle source. A three-stage Sm-Nd evolution model is developed and used in combination with LIL element data and estimated partition coefficients in order to test partial melting and fractional crystallization models and to estimate LIL abundances in a possible Nakhla source. The calculations indicate that partial melting of the source followed by extensive fractional crystallization of the partial melt could account for the REE abundances in the Nakhla constituent minerals. It is concluded that the significantly younger age of Nakhla than the youngest lunar rock, the young differentiation age inferred from U-Th-Pb data, and the estimated LIL abundances suggest that this meteorite may have been derived from a relatively large, well-differentiated planetary body such as Mars.

LiDAR-derived site index in the U.S. Pacihic Northwest--challenges and opportunities

Treesearch

Demetrios Gatziolis

2007-01-01

Site Index (SI), a key inventory parameter, is traditionally estimated by using costly and laborious field assessments of tree height and age. The increasing availability of reliable information on stand initiation timing and extent of planted, even-aged stands maintained in digital databases suggests that information on the height of dominant trees suffices for...

Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

PubMed

Sullivan, R E; Weng, P S

1987-08-01

Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

Geodynamic evolution of the lithosphere of the Sea of Okhotsk region from geophysical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzhbitsky, E. V.; Kononov, M. V.

2006-06-01

The tectonic structure and anomalous distributions of geophysical fields of the Sea of Okhotsk region are considered; the lack of reliable data on the age of the lithosphere beneath basins of various origins in the Sea of Okhotsk is noted. Model calculations based on geological and geophysical data yielded an age of 65 Ma (the Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary) for the Central Okhotsk rise underlain by the continental lithosphere. This estimate agrees with the age (the end of the Cretaceous) derived from seismostratigraphic data. A comparative analysis of theoretical and measured heat fluxes in the Akademii Nauk Rise, underlain by a thinned continental crust, is performed. The analysis points to a higher (by 20%) value of the measured thermal background of the rise, which is consistent with a high negative gradient of gravity anomalies in this area. Calculations yielded an age of 36 Ma (the Early Oligocene) and a lithosphere thickness of 50 km for the South Okhotsk depression, whose seafloor was formed by processes of backarc spreading. The estimated age of the depression is supported by kinematic data on the region; the calculated thickness of the lithosphere coincides with the value estimated from data of magnetotelluric sounding here. This indicates that the formation time (36 Ma) of the South Okhotsk depression was estimated correctly. Numerical modeling performed for the determination of the basement age of rifting basins in the Sea of Okhotsk gave the following estimates: 18 Ma (the Early Miocene) for the Deryugin basin, 12 Ma (the Middle Miocene) for the TINRO basin, and 23 Ma (the Late Oligocene) for the West Kamchatka trough. These estimates agree with the formation time (Oligocene-Quaternary) of the sedimentary cover in rifting basins of the Sea of Okhotsk derived from geological and geophysical data. Model temperature estimates are obtained for lithologic and stratigraphic boundaries of the sedimentary cover in the Deryugin and TINRO basins and the West Kamchatka trough; the temperature analysis indicates that the latter two structures are promising for oil and hydrocarbon gas generation; the West Kamchatka trough possesses better reservoir properties compared to the TINRO and Deryugin basins. The latter is promising for the generation of hydrocarbon gas. Paleogeodynamic reconstructions of the Sea of Okhotsk region evolution are obtained for times of 90, 66, and 36 Ma on the basis of kinematic, geomagnetic, structural, tectonic, geothermal, and other geological and geophysical data.

Dosimetric implications of age related glandular changes in screening mammography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckett, J. R.; Kotre, C. J.

2000-03-01

The UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme is currently organized to routinely screen women between the ages of 50 and 64, with screening for older women available on request. The lower end of this age range closely matches the median age for the menopause (51 years), during which significant changes in the composition of the breast are known to occur. In order to quantify the dosimetric effect of these changes, radiographic factors and compressed breast thickness data for a cohort of 1258 women aged between 35 and 79 undergoing breast screening mammography have been used to derive estimates of breast glandularity and mean glandular dose (MGD), and examine their variation with age. The variation of mean radiographic exposure factors with age is also investigated. The presence of a significant number of age trial women within the cohort allowed an extended age range to be studied. Estimates of MGD including corrections for breast glandularity based on compressed breast thickness only, compressed breast thickness and age and for each individual woman are compared with the MGD based on the conventional assumption of a 50:50 adipose/glandular composition. It has been found that the use of the conventional 50:50 assumption leads to overestimates of MGD of up to 13% over the age range considered. By using compressed breast thickness to estimate breast glandularity, this error range can be reduced to 8%, whilst age and compressed breast thickness based glandularity estimates result in an error range of 1%.

Short Forms of the Wechsler Memory Scale--Revised: Cross- Validation and Derivation of a Two-Subtest Form.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van den Broek, Anneke; Golden, Charles J.; Loonstra, Ann; Ghinglia, Katheryne; Goldstein, Diane

1998-01-01

Indicated excellent cross-validations with correlation of 0.99 for past formulas (J. L. Woodard and B. N. Axelrod, 1995; B. N. Axelrod et al, 1996) for estimating the Wechsler Memory Scale- Revised General Memory and Delayed Recall Indexes. Over 85% of the estimated scores were within 10 points of actual scores. Age, education, diagnosis, and IQ…

Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790–19001

PubMed Central

Hacker, J. David

2010-01-01

This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900–02 rural and 1900–02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends. PMID:20563225

An analysis of population and social change in London wards in the 1980s.

PubMed

Congdon, P

1989-01-01

"This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year periods. The availability of age disaggregated population estimates permits derivation of small area social indicators for intercensal years, for example, of unemployment and mortality. Trends in spatial inequality of such indicators during the 1980s are analysed and point to continuing wide differentials. A typology of population and social indicators gives an indication of the small area distribution of the recent population turnaround in inner London, and of its association with other social processes such as gentrification and ethnic concentration." excerpt

Automated Assessment of Child Vocalization Development Using LENA.

PubMed

Richards, Jeffrey A; Xu, Dongxin; Gilkerson, Jill; Yapanel, Umit; Gray, Sharmistha; Paul, Terrance

2017-07-12

To produce a novel, efficient measure of children's expressive vocal development on the basis of automatic vocalization assessment (AVA), child vocalizations were automatically identified and extracted from audio recordings using Language Environment Analysis (LENA) System technology. Assessment was based on full-day audio recordings collected in a child's unrestricted, natural language environment. AVA estimates were derived using automatic speech recognition modeling techniques to categorize and quantify the sounds in child vocalizations (e.g., protophones and phonemes). These were expressed as phone and biphone frequencies, reduced to principal components, and inputted to age-based multiple linear regression models to predict independently collected criterion-expressive language scores. From these models, we generated vocal development AVA estimates as age-standardized scores and development age estimates. AVA estimates demonstrated strong statistical reliability and validity when compared with standard criterion expressive language assessments. Automated analysis of child vocalizations extracted from full-day recordings in natural settings offers a novel and efficient means to assess children's expressive vocal development. More research remains to identify specific mechanisms of operation.

'Between one and three million': towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970-79).

PubMed

Heuveline, P

1998-03-01

Estimates of mortality in Camabodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source - the 1992 electoral lists registered by the United Nations - to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of "excess" mortality in the 1970s. These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of "excess" mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past. In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of "excess" mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognized.

Estimates of Forest Biomass Carbon Storage in Liaoning Province of Northeast China: A Review and Assessment

PubMed Central

Yu, Dapao; Wang, Xiaoyu; Yin, You; Zhan, Jinyu; Lewis, Bernard J.; Tian, Jie; Bao, Ye; Zhou, Wangming; Zhou, Li; Dai, Limin

2014-01-01

Accurate estimates of forest carbon storage and changes in storage capacity are critical for scientific assessment of the effects of forest management on the role of forests as carbon sinks. Up to now, several studies reported forest biomass carbon (FBC) in Liaoning Province based on data from China's Continuous Forest Inventory, however, their accuracy were still not known. This study compared estimates of FBC in Liaoning Province derived from different methods. We found substantial variation in estimates of FBC storage for young and middle-age forests. For provincial forests with high proportions in these age classes, the continuous biomass expansion factor method (CBM) by forest type with age class is more accurate and therefore more appropriate for estimating forest biomass. Based on the above approach designed for this study, forests in Liaoning Province were found to be a carbon sink, with carbon stocks increasing from 63.0 TgC in 1980 to 120.9 TgC in 2010, reflecting an annual increase of 1.9 TgC. The average carbon density of forest biomass in the province has increased from 26.2 Mg ha−1 in 1980 to 31.0 Mg ha−1 in 2010. While the largest FBC occurred in middle-age forests, the average carbon density decreased in this age class during these three decades. The increase in forest carbon density resulted primarily from the increased area and carbon storage of mature forests. The relatively long age interval in each age class for slow-growing forest types increased the uncertainty of FBC estimates by CBM-forest type with age class, and further studies should devote more attention to the time span of age classes in establishing biomass expansion factors for use in CBM calculations. PMID:24586881

Estimates of forest biomass carbon storage inLiaoning Province of Northeast China: a review and assessment.

PubMed

Yu, Dapao; Wang, Xiaoyu; Yin, You; Zhan, Jinyu; Lewis, Bernard J; Tian, Jie; Bao, Ye; Zhou, Wangming; Zhou, Li; Dai, Limin

2014-01-01

Accurate estimates of forest carbon storage and changes in storage capacity are critical for scientific assessment of the effects of forest management on the role of forests as carbon sinks. Up to now, several studies reported forest biomass carbon (FBC) in Liaoning Province based on data from China's Continuous Forest Inventory, however, their accuracy were still not known. This study compared estimates of FBC in Liaoning Province derived from different methods. We found substantial variation in estimates of FBC storage for young and middle-age forests. For provincial forests with high proportions in these age classes, the continuous biomass expansion factor method (CBM) by forest type with age class is more accurate and therefore more appropriate for estimating forest biomass. Based on the above approach designed for this study, forests in Liaoning Province were found to be a carbon sink, with carbon stocks increasing from 63.0 TgC in 1980 to 120.9 TgC in 2010, reflecting an annual increase of 1.9 TgC. The average carbon density of forest biomass in the province has increased from 26.2 Mg ha(-1) in 1980 to 31.0 Mg ha(-1) in 2010. While the largest FBC occurred in middle-age forests, the average carbon density decreased in this age class during these three decades. The increase in forest carbon density resulted primarily from the increased area and carbon storage of mature forests. The relatively long age interval in each age class for slow-growing forest types increased the uncertainty of FBC estimates by CBM-forest type with age class, and further studies should devote more attention to the time span of age classes in establishing biomass expansion factors for use in CBM calculations.

Compatibility of household budget and individual nutrition surveys: results of the preliminary analysis.

PubMed

Naska, A; Trichopoulou, A

2001-08-01

The EU-supported project entitled: "Compatibility of household budget and individual nutrition surveys and disparities in food habits" aimed at comparing individualised household budget survey (HBS) data with food consumption values derived from individual nutrition surveys (INS). The present paper provides a brief description of the methodology applied for rendering the datasets at a comparable level. Results of the preliminary evaluation of their compatibility are also presented. A non parametric modelling approach was used for the individualisation (age and gender-specific) of the food data collected at household level, in the context of the national HBSs and the bootstrap technique was used for the derivation of 95% confidence intervals. For each food group, INS and HBS-derived mean values were calculated for twenty-four research units, jointly defined by country (four countries involved), gender (male, female) and age (younger, middle-aged and older). Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated. The results of this preliminary analysis show that there is considerable scope in the nutritional information derived from HBSs. Additional and more sophisticated work is however required, putting particular emphasis on addressing limitations present in both surveys and on deriving reliable individual consumption point and interval estimates, on the basis of HBS data.

Stellar population in star formation regions of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Alexander S.; Shimanovskaya, Elena V.; Shatsky, Nikolai I.; Sakhibov, Firouz; Piskunov, Anatoly E.; Kharchenko, Nina V.

2018-05-01

We developed techniques for searching young unresolved star groupings (clusters, associations, and their complexes) and of estimating their physical parameters. Our study is based on spectroscopic, spectrophotometric, and UBVRI photometric observations of 19 spiral galaxies. In the studied galaxies, we found 1510 objects younger than 10 Myr and present their catalogue. Having combined photometric and spectroscopic data, we derived extinctions, chemical abundances, sizes, ages, and masses of these groupings. We discuss separately the specific cases, when the gas extinction does not agree with the interstellar one. We assume that this is due to spatial offset of Hii clouds with respect to the related stellar population.We developed a method to estimate age of stellar population of the studied complexes using their morphology and the relation with associated H emission region. In result we obtained the estimates of chemical abundances for 80, masses for 63, and ages for 57 young objects observed in seven galaxies.

Precision of hard structures used to estimate age of mountain Whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael C.

2015-01-01

The mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) is a widely distributed salmonid in western North America that has decreased in abundance over portions of its distribution due to anthropogenic disturbances. In this investigation, we examined precision of age estimates derived from scales, pectoral fin rays, and sagittal otoliths from 167 mountain whitefish. Otoliths and pectoral fin rays were mounted in epoxy and cross-sectioned before examination. Scales were pressed onto acetate slides and resulting impressions were examined. Between-reader precision (i.e., between 2 readers), between-reader variability, and reader confidence ratings were compared among hard structures. Coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and percentage of exact agreement (PA-0) was highest for scales (CV = 5.9; PA-0 = 70%) compared to pectoral fin rays (CV =11.0; PA-0 = 58%) and otoliths (CV = 12.3; PA-0 = 55%). Median confidence ratings were significantly different (P ≤ 0.05) among all structures, with scales having the highest median confidence. Reader confidence decreased with fish age for scales and pectoral fin rays, but reader confidence increased with fish age for otoliths. In general, age estimates were more precise and reader confidence was higher for scales compared to pectoral fin rays and otoliths. This research will help fisheries biologists in selecting the most appropriate hard structure to use for future age and growth studies on mountain whitefish. In turn, selection of the most precise hard structure will lead to better estimates of dynamic rate functions.

Postnatal gestational age estimation using newborn screening blood spots: a proposed validation protocol

PubMed Central

Murphy, Malia S Q; Hawken, Steven; Atkinson, Katherine M; Milburn, Jennifer; Pervin, Jesmin; Gravett, Courtney; Stringer, Jeffrey S A; Rahman, Anisur; Lackritz, Eve; Chakraborty, Pranesh; Wilson, Kumanan

2017-01-01

Background Knowledge of gestational age (GA) is critical for guiding neonatal care and quantifying regional burdens of preterm birth. In settings where access to ultrasound dating is limited, postnatal estimates are frequently used despite the issues of accuracy associated with postnatal approaches. Newborn metabolic profiles are known to vary by severity of preterm birth. Recent work by our group and others has highlighted the accuracy of postnatal GA estimation algorithms derived from routinely collected newborn screening profiles. This protocol outlines the validation of a GA model originally developed in a North American cohort among international newborn cohorts. Methods Our primary objective is to use blood spot samples collected from infants born in Zambia and Bangladesh to evaluate our algorithm’s capacity to correctly classify GA within 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks. Secondary objectives are to 1) determine the algorithm's accuracy in small-for-gestational-age and large-for-gestational-age infants, 2) determine its ability to correctly discriminate GA of newborns across dichotomous thresholds of preterm birth (≤34 weeks, <37 weeks GA) and 3) compare the relative performance of algorithms derived from newborn screening panels including all available analytes and those restricted to analyte subsets. The study population will consist of infants born to mothers already enrolled in one of two preterm birth cohorts in Lusaka, Zambia, and Matlab, Bangladesh. Dried blood spot samples will be collected and sent for analysis in Ontario, Canada, for model validation. Discussion This study will determine the validity of a GA estimation algorithm across ethnically diverse infant populations and assess population specific variations in newborn metabolic profiles. PMID:29104765

Prevalence, Duration and Severity of Parkinson's Disease in Germany: A Combined Meta-Analysis from Literature Data and Outpatient Samples.

PubMed

Enders, Dirk; Balzer-Geldsetzer, Monika; Riedel, Oliver; Dodel, Richard; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Sensken, Sven-Christian; Wolff, Björn; Reese, Jens-Peter

2017-01-01

Epidemiological data on the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) in Germany are limited. The aims of this study were to estimate the age- and gender-specific prevalence of PD in Germany as well as the severity and illness duration. A systematic literature search was performed in 5 different databases. European studies were included if they reported age- and gender-specific numbers of prevalence rates of PD. Meta-analytic approaches were applied to derive age- and gender-specific pooled prevalence estimates. Data of 4 German outpatient samples were incorporated to calculate the proportion of patients with PD in Germany grouped by Hoehn and Yahr (HY) stages and disease duration. In the German population, 178,169 cases of PD were estimated (prevalence: 217.22/100,000). The estimated relative illness duration was 40% with less than 5 years, 31% with 5-9 years, and 29% with more than 9 years. The proportions for different HY stages were estimated at 13% (I), 30% (II), 35% (III), 17% (IV), and 4% (V), respectively. Key Message: We provide an up-to-date estimation of age- and gender-specific as well as severity-based prevalence figures for PD in Germany. Further community studies are needed to estimate population-based severity distributions and distributions of non-motor symptoms in PD. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

MASSCLEANage—Stellar Cluster Ages from Integrated Colors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, Bogdan; Hanson, M. M.

2010-11-01

We present the recently updated and expanded MASSCLEANcolors, a database of 70 million Monte Carlo models selected to match the properties (metallicity, ages, and masses) of stellar clusters found in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). This database shows the rather extreme and non-Gaussian distribution of integrated colors and magnitudes expected with different cluster age and mass and the enormous age degeneracy of integrated colors when mass is unknown. This degeneracy could lead to catastrophic failures in estimating age with standard simple stellar population models, particularly if most of the clusters are of intermediate or low mass, like in the LMC. Utilizing the MASSCLEANcolors database, we have developed MASSCLEANage, a statistical inference package which assigns the most likely age and mass (solved simultaneously) to a cluster based only on its integrated broadband photometric properties. Finally, we use MASSCLEANage to derive the age and mass of LMC clusters based on integrated photometry alone. First, we compare our cluster ages against those obtained for the same seven clusters using more accurate integrated spectroscopy. We find improved agreement with the integrated spectroscopy ages over the original photometric ages. A close examination of our results demonstrates the necessity of solving simultaneously for mass and age to reduce degeneracies in the cluster ages derived via integrated colors. We then selected an additional subset of 30 photometric clusters with previously well-constrained ages and independently derive their age using the MASSCLEANage with the same photometry with very good agreement. The MASSCLEANage program is freely available under GNU General Public License.

Unresolved versus resolved: testing the validity of young simple stellar population models with VLT/MUSE observations of NGC 3603

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuncarayakti, H.; Galbany, L.; Anderson, J. P.; Krühler, T.; Hamuy, M.

2016-09-01

Context. Stellar populations are the building blocks of galaxies, including the Milky Way. The majority, if not all, extragalactic studies are entangled with the use of stellar population models given the unresolved nature of their observation. Extragalactic systems contain multiple stellar populations with complex star formation histories. However, studies of these systems are mainly based upon the principles of simple stellar populations (SSP). Hence, it is critical to examine the validity of SSP models. Aims: This work aims to empirically test the validity of SSP models. This is done by comparing SSP models against observations of spatially resolved young stellar population in the determination of its physical properties, that is, age and metallicity. Methods: Integral field spectroscopy of a young stellar cluster in the Milky Way, NGC 3603, was used to study the properties of the cluster as both a resolved and unresolved stellar population. The unresolved stellar population was analysed using the Hα equivalent width as an age indicator and the ratio of strong emission lines to infer metallicity. In addition, spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting using STARLIGHT was used to infer these properties from the integrated spectrum. Independently, the resolved stellar population was analysed using the colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) to determine age and metallicity. As the SSP model represents the unresolved stellar population, the derived age and metallicity were tested to determine whether they agree with those derived from resolved stars. Results: The age and metallicity estimate of NGC 3603 derived from integrated spectroscopy are confirmed to be within the range of those derived from the CMD of the resolved stellar population, including other estimates found in the literature. The result from this pilot study supports the reliability of SSP models for studying unresolved young stellar populations. Based on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere under ESO programme 60.A-9344.

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

1997-01-01

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

PubMed

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Gupta, M. L.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Fleming, E. L.

2008-01-01

Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

Life history theory and dental development in four species of catarrhine primates.

PubMed

Dirks, Wendy; Bowman, Jacqui E

2007-09-01

Dental development was reconstructed in several individuals representing four species of catarrhine primates--Symphalangus syndactylus, Hylobates lar, Semnopithecus entellus priam, and Papio hamadryas--using the techniques of dental histology. Bar charts assumed to represent species-typical dental development were constructed from these data and estimated ages at first and third molar emergence were plotted on them along with ages at weaning, menarche, and first reproduction from the literature. The estimated age at first molar emergence appears to occur at weaning in the siamang, lar gibbon, and langur, and just after weaning in the baboon. Age at menarche and first reproduction occur earlier relative to dental development in both cercopithecoids than in the hylobatids, suggesting that early reproduction may be a derived trait in cercopithecoids. The results are examined in the context of life history theory.

Volume of Impact Melt Generated by the Formation of the South Pole-Aitken Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petro, Noah E.

2011-01-01

The South Pole-Aitken Basin (SPA) is the largest, deepest, and oldest identified basin on the Moon and as such contains surfaces that are unique due to their age, composition, and depth of origin in the lunar crust [1-5] (Figure 1). SPA has been a target of intense interest as an area for robotic sample return in order to determine the age of the basin and the composition and origin of its interior [6-8]. In response to this interest there have been several efforts to estimate the likely provenance of regolith material within central SPA [9-12]. These model estimates suggest that, despite the formation of basins and craters following SPA, the regolith within SPA is dominated by locally derived material. An assumption of these models has been that the locally derived material is primarily SPA impact-melt as opposed to local basement material (e.g. unmelted lower crust). However, the definitive identification of SPA derived impact melt on the basin floor, either by remote sensing [5, 13] or via photogeology [2, 14] is extremely difficult due to the number of subsequent impacts and volcanic activity [4].

Age at exposure to ionising radiation and cancer mortality among Hanford workers: follow up through 1994

PubMed Central

Wing, S; Richardson, D

2005-01-01

Background: Studies of workers at the plutonium production factory in Hanford, WA have led to conflicting conclusions about the role of age at exposure as a modifier of associations between ionising radiation and cancer. Aims: To evaluate the influence of age at exposure on radiation risk estimates in an updated follow up of Hanford workers. Methods: A cohort of 26 389 workers hired between 1944 and 1978 was followed through 1994 to ascertain vital status and causes of death. External radiation dose estimates were derived from personal dosimeters. Poisson regression was used to estimate associations between mortality and cumulative external radiation dose at all ages, and in specific age ranges. Results: A total of 8153 deaths were identified, 2265 of which included cancer as an underlying or contributory cause. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Sievert (ERR/Sv) for cumulative radiation doses at all ages combined were negative for all cause and leukaemia and positive for all cancer and lung cancer. Cumulative doses accrued at ages below 35, 35–44, and 45–54 showed little association with mortality. For cumulative dose accrued at ages 55 and above (10 year lag), the estimated ERR/Sv for all cancers was 3.24 (90% CI: 0.80 to 6.17), primarily due to an association with lung cancer (ERR/Sv: 9.05, 90% CI: 2.96 to 17.92). Conclusions: Associations between radiation and cancer mortality in this cohort are primarily a function of doses at older ages and deaths from lung cancer. The association of older age radiation exposures and cancer mortality is similar to observations from several other occupational studies. PMID:15961623

Digital Biomass Accumulation Using High-Throughput Plant Phenotype Data Analysis.

PubMed

Rahaman, Md Matiur; Ahsan, Md Asif; Gillani, Zeeshan; Chen, Ming

2017-09-01

Biomass is an important phenotypic trait in functional ecology and growth analysis. The typical methods for measuring biomass are destructive, and they require numerous individuals to be cultivated for repeated measurements. With the advent of image-based high-throughput plant phenotyping facilities, non-destructive biomass measuring methods have attempted to overcome this problem. Thus, the estimation of plant biomass of individual plants from their digital images is becoming more important. In this paper, we propose an approach to biomass estimation based on image derived phenotypic traits. Several image-based biomass studies state that the estimation of plant biomass is only a linear function of the projected plant area in images. However, we modeled the plant volume as a function of plant area, plant compactness, and plant age to generalize the linear biomass model. The obtained results confirm the proposed model and can explain most of the observed variance during image-derived biomass estimation. Moreover, a small difference was observed between actual and estimated digital biomass, which indicates that our proposed approach can be used to estimate digital biomass accurately.

Benchmark dose for cadmium exposure and elevated N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, CuiXia; Li, YuBiao; Zhu, ChunShui; Dong, ZhaoMin; Zhang, Kun; Zhao, YanBin; Xu, YiLu

2016-10-01

Cadmium (Cd) is a well-known nephrotoxic contaminant, and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) is considered to be an early and sensitive marker of tubular dysfunction. The link between Cd exposure and NAG level enables us to derive the benchmark dose (BMD) of Cd. Although several reports have already documented urinary Cd (UCd)-NAG relationships and BMD estimations, high heterogeneities arise due to the sub-populations (age, gender, and ethnicity) and BMD methodologies being employed. To clarify the influences that these variables exert, firstly, a random effect meta-analysis was performed in this study to correlate the UCd and NAG based on 92 datasets collected from 30 publications. Later, this established correlation (Ln(NAG) = 0.51 × Ln(UCd) + 0.83) was applied to derive the UCd BMD 5 of 1.76 μg/g creatinine and 95 % lower confidence limit of BMD 5 (BMDL 5 ) of 1.67 μg/g creatinine. While the regressions for different age groups and genders differed slightly, it is age and not gender that significantly affects BMD estimations. Ethnic differences may require further investigation given that limited data is currently available. Based on a comprehensive and systematic literature review, this study is a new attempt to quantify the UCd-NAG link and estimate BMD.

Prevalence and correlates of elder mistreatment in South Carolina: the South Carolina elder mistreatment study.

PubMed

Amstadter, Ananda B; Zajac, Kristyn; Strachan, Martha; Hernandez, Melba A; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Acierno, Ron

2011-10-01

The purposes of this study were to (a) derive prevalence estimates for elder mistreatment (emotional, physical, sexual, neglectful, and financial mistreatment of older adults [age 60 +]) in a randomly selected sample of South Carolinians; (b) examine correlates (i.e., potential risk factors) of mistreatment; and (c) examine incident characteristics of mistreatment events. Random Digit Dialing (RDD) was used to derive a representative sample in terms of age and gender; computer-assisted telephone interviewing was used to standardize collection of demographic, correlate, and mistreatment data. Prevalence estimates and mistreatment correlates were obtained and subjected to logistic regression. A total of 902 participants provided data. Prevalence for mistreatment types (since age 60) were 12.9% emotional, 2.1% physical, 0.3% sexual, 5.4% potential neglect, and 6.6% financial exploitation by family member. The most consistent correlates of mistreatment across abuse types were low social support and needing assistance with daily living activities. One in 10 participants reported either emotional, physical, sexual, or neglectful mistreatment within the past year, and 2 in 10 reported mistreatment since age 60. Across categories, the most consistent correlate of mistreatment was low social support, representing an area toward which preventive intervention may be directed with significant public health implications.

The TW Hydrae association: trigonometric parallaxes and kinematic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ducourant, C.; Teixeira, R.; Galli, P. A. B.; Le Campion, J. F.; Krone-Martins, A.; Zuckerman, B.; Chauvin, G.; Song, I.

2014-03-01

Context. The nearby TW Hydrae association (TWA) is currently a benchmark for the study of the formation and evolution of young low-mass stars, circumstellar disks, and the imaging detection of planetary companions. For these studies, it is crucial to evaluate the distance to group members in order to access their physical properties. Membership of several stars is strongly debated and age estimates vary from one author to another with doubts about coevality. Aims: We revisit the kinematic properties of the TWA in light of new trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions to derive the dynamical age of the association and physical parameters of kinematic members. Methods: Using observations performed with the New Technology Telescope (NTT) from ESO we measured trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions for 13 stars in TWA. Results: With the convergent point method we identify a co-moving group with 31 TWA stars. We deduce kinematic distances for seven members of the moving group that lack trigonometric parallaxes. A traceback strategy is applied to the stellar space motions of a selection of 16 of the co-moving objects with accurate and reliable data yielding a dynamical age for the association of t ≃ 7.5 ± 0.7 Myr. Using our new parallaxes and photometry available in the literature we derive stellar ages and masses from theoretical evolutionary models. Conclusions: With new parallax and proper motion measurements from this work and current astrometric catalogs we provide an improved and accurate database for TWA stars to be used in kinematical analysis. We conclude that the dynamical age obtained via traceback strategy is consistent with previous age estimates for the TWA, and is also compatible with the average ages derived in the present paper from evolutionary models for pre-main-sequence stars. Based on observations performed at the European Southern Observatory, Chile (79.C-0229, 81.C-0143, 82.C-0103, 83.C-0102, 84.C-0014).

A new mechanical stellar wind feedback model for the Rosette Nebula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wareing, C. J.; Pittard, J. M.; Wright, N. J.; Falle, S. A. E. G.

2018-04-01

The famous Rosette Nebula has an evacuated central cavity formed from the stellar winds ejected from the 2-6 Myr old codistant and comoving central star cluster NGC 2244. However, with upper age estimates of less than 110 000 yr, the central cavity is too young compared to NGC 2244 and existing models do not reproduce its properties. A new proper motion study herein using Gaia data reveals the ejection of the most massive star in the Rosette, HD 46223, from NGC 2244 occurred 1.73 (+0.34, -0.25) Myr (1σ uncertainty) in the past. Assuming this ejection was at the birth of the most massive stars in NGC 2244, including the dominant centrally positioned HD 46150, the age is set for the famous ionized region at more than 10 times that derived for the cavity. Here, we are able to reproduce the structure of the Rosette Nebula, through simulation of mechanical stellar feedback from a 40 M⊙ star in a thin sheet-like molecular cloud. We form the 135 000 M⊙ cloud from thermally unstable diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) under the influence of a realistic background magnetic field with thermal/magnetic pressure equilibrium. Properties derived from a snapshot of the simulation at 1.5 Myr, including cavity size, stellar age, magnetic field, and resulting inclination to the line of sight, match those derived from observations. An elegant explanation is thus provided for the stark contrast in age estimates based on realistic diffuse ISM properties, molecular cloud formation and stellar wind feedback.

Official statistics and claims data records indicate non-response and recall bias within survey-based estimates of health care utilization in the older population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The validity of survey-based health care utilization estimates in the older population has been poorly researched. Owing to data protection legislation and a great number of different health care insurance providers, the assessment of recall and non-response bias is challenging to impossible in many countries. The objective of our study was to compare estimates from a population-based study in older German adults with external secondary data. Methods We used data from the German KORA-Age study, which included 4,127 people aged 65–94 years. Self-report questions covered the utilization of long-term care services, inpatient services, outpatient services, and pharmaceuticals. We calculated age- and sex-standardized mean utilization rates in each domain and compared them with the corresponding estimates derived from official statistics and independent statutory health insurance data. Results The KORA-Age study underestimated the use of long-term care services (−52%), in-hospital days (−21%) and physician visits (−70%). In contrast, the assessment of drug consumption by postal self-report questionnaires yielded similar estimates to the analysis of insurance claims data (−9%). Conclusion Survey estimates based on self-report tend to underestimate true health care utilization in the older population. Direct validation studies are needed to disentangle the impact of recall and non-response bias. PMID:23286781

A potential dating technique using 228Th/228Ra ratio for tracing the chronosequence of elemental concentrations in plants.

PubMed

Chao, J H; Niu, H; Chiu, C Y; Lin, C

2007-06-01

We propose a radiometric method based on measurement of the radioactivity of the naturally occurring radionuclides (228)Ra and 228)Th and the derived (228)Th/(228)Ra ratios in plant samples to estimate plant age and the corresponding nutritional conditions in a field-growing fern, Dicranopteris linearis. Plant age (tissue age) was associated with the (228)Th/(228)Ra ratio in fronds, which implies the accumulation time of immobile elements in the plant tissue or the life span of the fronds. Results indicated that the accumulation of alkaline earth elements in D. linearis is relatively constant with increased age, while the K concentration is reversed with age because of translocation among plant tissues. Estimation of dating uncertainty based on measurement conditions revealed that the radiometric technique can be applied to trace chronosequential changes of elemental concentrations and environmental pollutants in plants with ages of less than 10-15 years.

Global and regional cause-of-death patterns in 1990.

PubMed Central

Murray, C. J.; Lopez, A. D.

1994-01-01

Demographic estimation techniques suggest that worldwide about 50 million deaths occur each year, of which about 39 million are in the developing countries. In countries with adequate registration of vital statistics, the age at death and the cause can be reliably determined. Only about 30-35% of all deaths are captured by vital registration (excluding sample registration schemes); for the remainder, cause-of-death estimation procedures are required. Indirect methods which model the cause-of-death structure as a function of the level of mortality can provide reasonable estimates for broad cause-of-death groups. Such methods are generally unreliable for more specific causes. In this case, estimates can be constructed from community-level mortality surveillance systems or from epidemiological evidence on specific diseases. Some check on the plausibility of the estimates is possible in view of the hierarchical structure of cause-of-death lists and the well-known age-specific patterns of diseases and injuries. The results of applying these methods to estimate the cause of death for over 120 diseases or injuries, by age, sex and region, are described. The estimates have been derived in order to calculate the years of life lost due to premature death, one of the two components of overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) calculated for the 1993 World development report. Previous attempts at cause-of-death estimation have been limited to a few diseases only, with little age-specific detail. The estimates reported in detail here should serve as a useful reference for further public health research to support the determination of health sector priorities. PMID:8062402

Estimating Gestational Age With Sonography: Regression-Derived Formula Versus the Fetal Biometric Average.

PubMed

Cawyer, Chase R; Anderson, Sarah B; Szychowski, Jeff M; Neely, Cherry; Owen, John

2018-03-01

To compare the accuracy of a new regression-derived formula developed from the National Fetal Growth Studies data to the common alternative method that uses the average of the gestational ages (GAs) calculated for each fetal biometric measurement (biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length). This retrospective cross-sectional study identified nonanomalous singleton pregnancies that had a crown-rump length plus at least 1 additional sonographic examination with complete fetal biometric measurements. With the use of the crown-rump length to establish the referent estimated date of delivery, each method's (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression versus Hadlock average [Radiology 1984; 152:497-501]), error at every examination was computed. Error, defined as the difference between the crown-rump length-derived GA and each method's predicted GA (weeks), was compared in 3 GA intervals: 1 (14 weeks-20 weeks 6 days), 2 (21 weeks-28 weeks 6 days), and 3 (≥29 weeks). In addition, the proportion of each method's examinations that had errors outside prespecified (±) day ranges was computed by using odds ratios. A total of 16,904 sonograms were identified. The overall and prespecified GA range subset mean errors were significantly smaller for the regression compared to the average (P < .01), and the regression had significantly lower odds of observing examinations outside the specified range of error in GA intervals 2 (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.31) and 3 (odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.32) than the average method. In a contemporary unselected population of women dated by a crown-rump length-derived GA, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression formula produced fewer estimates outside a prespecified margin of error than the commonly used Hadlock average; the differences were most pronounced for GA estimates at 29 weeks and later. © 2017 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

Star clusters: age, metallicity and extinction from integrated spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González Delgado, Rosa M.; Cid Fernandes, Roberto

2010-01-01

Integrated optical spectra of star clusters in the Magellanic Clouds and a few Galactic globular clusters are fitted using high-resolution spectral models for single stellar populations. The goal is to estimate the age, metallicity and extinction of the clusters, and evaluate the degeneracies among these parameters. Several sets of evolutionary models that were computed with recent high-spectral-resolution stellar libraries (MILES, GRANADA, STELIB), are used as inputs to the starlight code to perform the fits. The comparison of the results derived from this method and previous estimates available in the literature allow us to evaluate the pros and cons of each set of models to determine star cluster properties. In addition, we quantify the uncertainties associated with the age, metallicity and extinction determinations resulting from variance in the ingredients for the analysis.

MASSCLEANage-STELLAR CLUSTER AGES FROM INTEGRATED COLORS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Popescu, Bogdan; Hanson, M. M., E-mail: popescb@mail.uc.ed, E-mail: margaret.hanson@uc.ed

2010-11-20

We present the recently updated and expanded MASSCLEANcolors, a database of 70 million Monte Carlo models selected to match the properties (metallicity, ages, and masses) of stellar clusters found in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). This database shows the rather extreme and non-Gaussian distribution of integrated colors and magnitudes expected with different cluster age and mass and the enormous age degeneracy of integrated colors when mass is unknown. This degeneracy could lead to catastrophic failures in estimating age with standard simple stellar population models, particularly if most of the clusters are of intermediate or low mass, like in the LMC.more » Utilizing the MASSCLEANcolors database, we have developed MASSCLEANage, a statistical inference package which assigns the most likely age and mass (solved simultaneously) to a cluster based only on its integrated broadband photometric properties. Finally, we use MASSCLEANage to derive the age and mass of LMC clusters based on integrated photometry alone. First, we compare our cluster ages against those obtained for the same seven clusters using more accurate integrated spectroscopy. We find improved agreement with the integrated spectroscopy ages over the original photometric ages. A close examination of our results demonstrates the necessity of solving simultaneously for mass and age to reduce degeneracies in the cluster ages derived via integrated colors. We then selected an additional subset of 30 photometric clusters with previously well-constrained ages and independently derive their age using the MASSCLEANage with the same photometry with very good agreement. The MASSCLEANage program is freely available under GNU General Public License.« less

Stature estimation from the lengths of the growing foot-a study on North Indian adolescents.

PubMed

Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Passi, Neelam; DiMaggio, John A

2012-12-01

Stature estimation is considered as one of the basic parameters of the investigation process in unknown and commingled human remains in medico-legal case work. Race, age and sex are the other parameters which help in this process. Stature estimation is of the utmost importance as it completes the biological profile of a person along with the other three parameters of identification. The present research is intended to formulate standards for stature estimation from foot dimensions in adolescent males from North India and study the pattern of foot growth during the growing years. 154 male adolescents from the Northern part of India were included in the study. Besides stature, five anthropometric measurements that included the length of the foot from each toe (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 respectively) to pternion were measured on each foot. The data was analyzed statistically using Student's t-test, Pearson's correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis for estimation of stature and growth of foot during ages 13-18 years. Correlation coefficients between stature and all the foot measurements were found to be highly significant and positively correlated. Linear regression models and multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) were derived for estimation of stature from the different measurements of the foot. Multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) estimate stature with greater accuracy than the regression models for 13-18 years age group. The study shows the growth pattern of feet in North Indian adolescents and indicates that anthropometric measurements of the foot and its segments are valuable in estimation of stature in growing individuals of that population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A practical formula for determining growth.

PubMed

Türkoz, Çağrı; Kaygısız, Emine; Ulusoy, Çağrı; Ateş, Can

2017-01-01

We aimed to establish a practical method to evaluate skeletal age using cervical vertebrae. The study consisted of hand-wrist and cephalometric radiographs of 324 subjects (167 girls, 157 boys; age range, 7.3-17.2 years). Skeletal ages of the subjects were calculated from hand-wrist radiographs, and cervical vertebral bodies were measured using cephalometric radiographs. A single formula based on C3 and C4 vertebral body heights with different coefficients for each gender was derived using ridge regression analysis. The correlation coefficients for vertebral and hand-wrist bone age were 0.825 and 0.856 for girls and boys, respectively. The correlations among vertebral bone age and C3 and C4 vertebral body heights were also found to be significant. The intraclass correlation (ICC) score was found to be 0.914, which shows high consistency between the two measurements of the same investigator for each C3 and C4 vertebral body height result. The formula derived for evaluating skeletal age in cephalometric radiographs is reliable and can be applied to both girl and boy subjects for legal requirements or therapeutic needs of age estimation.

Quantile rank maps: a new tool for understanding individual brain development.

PubMed

Chen, Huaihou; Kelly, Clare; Castellanos, F Xavier; He, Ye; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Reiss, Philip T

2015-05-01

We propose a novel method for neurodevelopmental brain mapping that displays how an individual's values for a quantity of interest compare with age-specific norms. By estimating smoothly age-varying distributions at a set of brain regions of interest, we derive age-dependent region-wise quantile ranks for a given individual, which can be presented in the form of a brain map. Such quantile rank maps could potentially be used for clinical screening. Bootstrap-based confidence intervals are proposed for the quantile rank estimates. We also propose a recalibrated Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting group differences in the age-varying distribution. This test is shown to be more robust to model misspecification than a linear regression-based test. The proposed methods are applied to brain imaging data from the Nathan Kline Institute Rockland Sample and from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) sample. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of whole body fat from appendicular soft tissue from peripheral quantitative computed tomography in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Lee, Vinson R.; Blew, Rob M.; Farr, Josh N.; Tomas, Rita; Lohman, Timothy G.; Going, Scott B.

2013-01-01

Objective Assess the utility of peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) for estimating whole body fat in adolescent girls. Research Methods and Procedures Our sample included 458 girls (aged 10.7 ± 1.1y, mean BMI = 18.5 ± 3.3 kg/m2) who had DXA scans for whole body percent fat (DXA %Fat). Soft tissue analysis of pQCT scans provided thigh and calf subcutaneous percent fat and thigh and calf muscle density (muscle fat content surrogates). Anthropometric variables included weight, height and BMI. Indices of maturity included age and maturity offset. The total sample was split into validation (VS; n = 304) and cross-validation (CS; n = 154) samples. Linear regression was used to develop prediction equations for estimating DXA %Fat from anthropometric variables and pQCT-derived soft tissue components in VS and the best prediction equation was applied to CS. Results Thigh and calf SFA %Fat were positively correlated with DXA %Fat (r = 0.84 to 0.85; p <0.001) and thigh and calf muscle densities were inversely related to DXA %Fat (r = −0.30 to −0.44; p < 0.001). The best equation for estimating %Fat included thigh and calf SFA %Fat and thigh and calf muscle density (adj. R2 = 0.90; SEE = 2.7%). Bland-Altman analysis in CS showed accurate estimates of percent fat (adj. R2 = 0.89; SEE = 2.7%) with no bias. Discussion Peripheral QCT derived indices of adiposity can be used to accurately estimate whole body percent fat in adolescent girls. PMID:25147482

Magnetic resonance elastography of the pancreas: Measurement reproducibility and relationship with age.

PubMed

Kolipaka, Arunark; Schroeder, Samuel; Mo, Xiaokui; Shah, Zarine; Hart, Phil A; Conwell, Darwin L

2017-10-01

To determine magnetic resonance elastography (MRE)-derived stiffness of pancreas in healthy volunteers with emphasis on: 1) short term and midterm repeatability; and 2) variance as a function of age. Pancreatic MRE was performed on 22 healthy volunteers (age range:20-64years) in a 3T-scanner. For evaluation of reproducibility of stiffness estimates, the scans were repeated per volunteer on the same day (short term) and one month apart (midterm). MRE wave images were analyzed using 3D inversion to estimate the stiffness of overall pancreas and different anatomic regions (i.e., head, neck, body, and tail). Concordance and Spearman correlation tests were performed to determine reproducibility of stiffness measurements and relationship to age. A strong concordance correlation (ρ c =0.99; p-value<0.001) was found between short term and midterm repeatability pancreatic stiffness measurements. Additionally, the pancreatic stiffness significantly increased with age with good Spearman correlation coefficient (all ρ>0.81; p<0.001). The older age group (>45yrs) had significantly higher stiffness compared to the younger group (≤45yrs) (p<0.001). No significant difference (p>0.05) in stiffness measurements was observed between different anatomical regions of pancreas, except neck stiffness was slightly lower (p<0.012) compared to head and overall pancreas at month 1. MRE-derived pancreatic stiffness measurements are highly reproducible in the short and midterm and increase linearly with age in healthy volunteers. Further studies are needed to examine these effects in patients with various pancreatic diseases to understand potential clinical applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiplication factor versus regression analysis in stature estimation from hand and foot dimensions.

PubMed

Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Sharma, Abhilasha

2012-05-01

Estimation of stature is an important parameter in identification of human remains in forensic examinations. The present study is aimed to compare the reliability and accuracy of stature estimation and to demonstrate the variability in estimated stature and actual stature using multiplication factor and regression analysis methods. The study is based on a sample of 246 subjects (123 males and 123 females) from North India aged between 17 and 20 years. Four anthropometric measurements; hand length, hand breadth, foot length and foot breadth taken on the left side in each subject were included in the study. Stature was measured using standard anthropometric techniques. Multiplication factors were calculated and linear regression models were derived for estimation of stature from hand and foot dimensions. Derived multiplication factors and regression formula were applied to the hand and foot measurements in the study sample. The estimated stature from the multiplication factors and regression analysis was compared with the actual stature to find the error in estimated stature. The results indicate that the range of error in estimation of stature from regression analysis method is less than that of multiplication factor method thus, confirming that the regression analysis method is better than multiplication factor analysis in stature estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Background: Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Aim: Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Materials and Methods: Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. Results: There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Conclusion: Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis. PMID:26005298

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients.

PubMed

Bratzler, Dale W; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2011-04-12

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998-2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998-2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25(th), 50(th), and 75(th) percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.

An Administrative Claims Model for Profiling Hospital 30-Day Mortality Rates for Pneumonia Patients

PubMed Central

Bratzler, Dale W.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J.; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F.; Rapp, Michael T.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2011-01-01

Background Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Methodology/Principal Findings Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). Conclusions/Significance An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model. PMID:21532758

Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

2018-05-01

Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

Heart Rate and Blood Pressure Centile Curves and Distributions by Age of Hospitalized Critically Ill Children.

PubMed

Eytan, Danny; Goodwin, Andrew J; Greer, Robert; Guerguerian, Anne-Marie; Laussen, Peter C

2017-01-01

Heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP) form the basis for monitoring the physiological state of patients. Although norms have been published for healthy and hospitalized children, little is known about their distributions in critically ill children. The objective of this study was to report the distributions of these basic physiological variables in hospitalized critically ill children. Continuous data from bedside monitors were collected and stored at 5-s intervals from 3,677 subjects aged 0-18 years admitted over a period of 30 months to the pediatric and cardiac intensive care units at a large quaternary children's hospital. Approximately 1.13 billion values served to estimate age-specific distributions for these two basic physiological variables: HR and intra-arterial BP. Centile curves were derived from the sample distributions and compared to common reference ranges. Properties such as kurtosis and skewness of these distributions are described. In comparison to previously published reference ranges, we show that children in these settings exhibit markedly higher HRs than their healthy counterparts or children hospitalized on in-patient wards. We also compared commonly used published estimates of hypotension in children (e.g., the PALS guidelines) to the values we derived from critically ill children. This is a first study reporting the distributions of basic physiological variables in children in the pediatric intensive care settings, and the percentiles derived may serve as useful references for bedside clinicians and clinical trials.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia. PMID:19331670

Alcohol industry and government revenue derived from underage drinking by Australian adolescents 2005.

PubMed

Doran, Christopher M; Shakeshaft, Anthony P; Hall, Wayne; Petrie, Dennis

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the revenue gained from consumption of alcohol by adolescents for each beverage type for the year 2005. Secondary analysis of self-reported alcohol use in the 2005 Australian Secondary School Surveys Alcohol and Drug Use. Australia. Over 506,000 adolescents aged between 12 and 17 years (29% of all Australian adolescents) consumed approximately 175.69 million standard drinks in 2005. The total revenue generated by the consumption of these beverages was estimated to be $218 million, of which the government received approximately $107 million or 49% in taxation revenue. Total revenue per underage drinker is estimated at $430.84 with revenue increasing with age. Males tend to spend more on spirits and beer while females spend more on pre-mixed spirits. Females aged 12-15 years spend around $121 per year (or 50% of total expenditure) on pre-mixed spirits compared to females aged 16-17 years old that spend around $257 per year (or 62% of total expenditure) on pre-mixed spirits. The Australian government and the alcohol industry receive substantial financial benefit from the sale of alcoholic beverages to under age drinkers.

Longitudinal Stability in Genetic Effects on Children's Conversational Language Productivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeThorne, Laura Segebart; Harlaar, Nicole; Petrill, Stephen A.; Deater-Deckard, Kirby

2012-01-01

Purpose: The authors examined the longitudinal stability of genetic and environmental influences on children's productive language sample measures during the early school-age years. Method: Twin study methodology with structural equation modeling was used to derive univariate estimates of additive genetic (A), shared environmental (C), and…

Sources and ages of fine-grained sediment to streams using fallout radionuclides in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gellis, Allen; Fuller, Christopher C.; Van Metre, Peter C.

2017-01-01

Fallout radionuclides, 7Be and 210Pbex, sampled in bed sediment for 99 watersheds in the Midwestern region of the United States and in 15 samples of suspended sediment from 3 of these watersheds were used to partition upland from channel sources and to estimate the age or the time since the surface-derived portion of sediment was on the land surface (0–∼1 year). Channel sources dominate: 78 of the 99 bed material sites (79%) have >50% channel-derived sediment, and 9 of the 15 suspended-sediment samples (60%) have >50% channel-derived sediment. 7Be was detected in 82 bed sediment samples and all 15 suspended-sediment samples. The surface-derived portion of 54 of the 80 (68%) streams with detectable 7Be and 210Pbex were ≤ 100 days old and the surface-derived portion of all suspended-sediment samples were ≤ 100 days old, indicating that surface-derived fine-grained sediment moves rapidly though these systems. The concentrations of two hydrophobic pesticides–DDE and bifenthrin–are correlated with the proportion of surface-derived sediment, indicating a link between geomorphic processes and particle-associated contaminants in streams. Urban areas had the highest pesticide concentrations and the largest percentage of surface-derived sediment. Although the percentage of surface-derived sediment is less than channel sources at most of the study sites, the relatively young age of the surface-derived sediment might indicate that management actions to reduce sediment contamination where the land surface is an important source could have noticeable effects.

TU-H-CAMPUS-IeP1-03: Comparison of Monte Carlo Simulation and Conversion Factor Based Method On Estimation of Effective Dose in Pediatric Patients Undergoing Interventional Cardiac Procedures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, K; Wong, M; Ng, Y

Purpose: Interventional cardiac procedures utilize frequent fluoroscopy and cineangiography, which impose considerable radiation risk to patients, especially pediatric patients. Accurate calculation of effective dose is important in order to estimate cancer risk over the rest of their lifetime. This study evaluates the difference in effective dose calculated by Monte Carlo simulation with those estimated by locally-derived conversion factors (CF-local) and by commonly quoted conversion factors from Karambatsakidou et al (CF-K). Methods: Effective dose (E),of 12 pediatric patients, age between 2.5–19 years old, who had undergone interventional cardiac procedures, were calculated using PCXMC-2.0 software. Tube spectrum, irradiation geometry, exposure parameters andmore » dose-area product (DAP) of each projection were included in the software calculation. Effective doses for each patient were also estimated by two Methods: 1) CF-local: conversion factor derived locally by generalizing results of 12 patients, multiplied by DAP of each patient gives E-local. 2) CF-K: selected factor from above-mentioned literature, multiplied by DAP of each patient gives E-K. Results: Mean of E, E-local and E-K were 16.01 mSv, 16.80 mSv and 22.25 mSv respectively. A deviation of −29.35% to +34.85% between E and E-local, while a greater deviation of −28.96% to +60.86% between E and EK were observed. E-K overestimated the effective dose for patients at age 7.5–19. Conclusion: Effective dose obtained by conversion factors is simple and quick to estimate radiation risk of pediatric patients. This study showed that estimation by CF-local may bear an error of 35% when compared with Monte Carlo calculation. If using conversion factors derived by other studies may result in an even greater error, of up to 60%, due to factors that are not catered for in the estimation, including patient size, projection angles, exposure parameters, tube filtration, etc. Users must be aware of these potential inaccuracies when simple conversion method is employed.« less

Skeletal Maturation and Aerobic Performance in Young Soccer Players from Professional Academies.

PubMed

Teixeira, A S; Valente-dos-Santos, J; Coelho-E-Silva, M J; Malina, R M; Fernandes-da-Silva, J; Cesar do Nascimento Salvador, P; De Lucas, R D; Wayhs, M C; Guglielmo, L G A

2015-11-01

The contribution of chronological age, skeletal age (Fels method) and body size to variance in peak velocity derived from the Carminatti Test was examined in 3 competitive age groups of Brazilian male soccer players: 10-11 years (U-12, n=15), 12-13 years (U-14, n=54) and 14-15 years (U-16, n=23). Body size and soccer-specific aerobic fitness were measured. Body composition was predicted from skinfolds. Analysis of variance and covariance (controlling for chronological age) were used to compare soccer players by age group and by skeletal maturity status within of each age group, respectively. Relative skeletal age (skeletal age minus chronological age), body size, estimated fat-free mass and performance on the Carminatti Test increased significantly with age. Carminatti Test performance did not differ among players of contrasting skeletal maturity status in the 3 age groups. Results of multiple linear regressions indicated fat mass (negative) and chronological age (positive) were significant predictors of peak velocity derived from the Carminatti Test, whereas skeletal age was not a significant predictor. In conclusion, the Carminatti Test appears to be a potentially interesting field protocol to assess intermittent endurance running capacity in youth soccer programs since it is independent of biological maturity status. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Derivation of a Provisional, Age-dependent, AIS2+ Thoracic Risk Curve for the THOR50 Test Dummy via Integration of NASS Cases, PMHS Tests, and Simulation Data.

PubMed

Laituri, Tony R; Henry, Scott; El-Jawahri, Raed; Muralidharan, Nirmal; Li, Guosong; Nutt, Marvin

2015-11-01

A provisional, age-dependent thoracic risk equation (or, "risk curve") was derived to estimate moderate-to-fatal injury potential (AIS2+), pertaining to men with responses gaged by the advanced mid-sized male test dummy (THOR50). The derivation involved two distinct data sources: cases from real-world crashes (e.g., the National Automotive Sampling System, NASS) and cases involving post-mortem human subjects (PMHS). The derivation was therefore more comprehensive, as NASS datasets generally skew towards younger occupants, and PMHS datasets generally skew towards older occupants. However, known deficiencies had to be addressed (e.g., the NASS cases had unknown stimuli, and the PMHS tests required transformation of known stimuli into THOR50 stimuli). For the NASS portion of the analysis, chest-injury outcomes for adult male drivers about the size of the THOR50 were collected from real-world, 11-1 o'clock, full-engagement frontal crashes (NASS, 1995-2012 calendar years, 1985-2012 model-year light passenger vehicles). The screening for THOR50-sized men involved application of a set of newly-derived "correction" equations for self-reported height and weight data in NASS. Finally, THOR50 stimuli were estimated via field simulations involving attendant representative restraint systems, and those stimuli were then assigned to corresponding NASS cases (n=508). For the PMHS portion of the analysis, simulation-based closure equations were developed to convert PMHS stimuli into THOR50 stimuli. Specifically, closure equations were derived for the four measurement locations on the THOR50 chest by cross-correlating the results of matched-loading simulations between the test dummy and the age-dependent, Ford Human Body Model. The resulting closure equations demonstrated acceptable fidelity (n=75 matched simulations, R2≥0.99). These equations were applied to the THOR50-sized men in the PMHS dataset (n=20). The NASS and PMHS datasets were combined and subjected to survival analysis with event-frequency weighting and arbitrary censoring. The resulting risk curve--a function of peak THOR50 chest compression and age--demonstrated acceptable fidelity for recovering the AIS2+ chest injury rate of the combined dataset (i.e., IR_dataset=1.97% vs. curve-based IR_dataset=1.98%). Additional sensitivity analyses showed that (a) binary logistic regression yielded a risk curve with nearly-identical fidelity, (b) there was only a slight advantage of combining the small-sample PMHS dataset with the large-sample NASS dataset, (c) use of the PMHS-based risk curve for risk estimation of the combined dataset yielded relatively poor performance (194% difference), and (d) when controlling for the type of contact (lab-consistent or not), the resulting risk curves were similar.

GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

2012-01-01

GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Development of modern human subadult age and sex estimation standards using multi-slice computed tomography images from medical examiner's offices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, Michala K.; Stull, Kyra E.; Garvin, Heather M.; Klales, Alexandra R.

2016-10-01

Forensic anthropologists are routinely asked to estimate a biological profile (i.e., age, sex, ancestry and stature) from a set of unidentified remains. In contrast to the abundance of collections and techniques associated with adult skeletons, there is a paucity of modern, documented subadult skeletal material, which limits the creation and validation of appropriate forensic standards. Many are forced to use antiquated methods derived from small sample sizes, which given documented secular changes in the growth and development of children, are not appropriate for application in the medico-legal setting. Therefore, the aim of this project is to use multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) data from a large, diverse sample of modern subadults to develop new methods to estimate subadult age and sex for practical forensic applications. The research sample will consist of over 1,500 full-body MSCT scans of modern subadult individuals (aged birth to 20 years) obtained from two U.S. medical examiner's offices. Statistical analysis of epiphyseal union scores, long bone osteometrics, and os coxae landmark data will be used to develop modern subadult age and sex estimation standards. This project will result in a database of information gathered from the MSCT scans, as well as the creation of modern, statistically rigorous standards for skeletal age and sex estimation in subadults. Furthermore, the research and methods developed in this project will be applicable to dry bone specimens, MSCT scans, and radiographic images, thus providing both tools and continued access to data for forensic practitioners in a variety of settings.

Support for viral persistence in bats from age-specific serology and models of maternal immunity.

PubMed

Peel, Alison J; Baker, Kate S; Hayman, David T S; Broder, Christopher C; Cunningham, Andrew A; Fooks, Anthony R; Garnier, Romain; Wood, James L N; Restif, Olivier

2018-03-01

Spatiotemporally-localised prediction of virus emergence from wildlife requires focused studies on the ecology and immunology of reservoir hosts in their native habitat. Reliable predictions from mathematical models remain difficult in most systems due to a dearth of appropriate empirical data. Our goal was to study the circulation and immune dynamics of zoonotic viruses in bat populations and investigate the effects of maternally-derived and acquired immunity on viral persistence. Using rare age-specific serological data from wild-caught Eidolon helvum fruit bats as a case study, we estimated viral transmission parameters for a stochastic infection model. We estimated mean durations of around 6 months for maternally-derived immunity to Lagos bat virus and African henipavirus, whereas acquired immunity was long-lasting (Lagos bat virus: mean 12 years, henipavirus: mean 4 years). In the presence of a seasonal birth pulse, the effect of maternally-derived immunity on virus persistence within modelled bat populations was highly dependent on transmission characteristics. To explain previous reports of viral persistence within small natural and captive E. helvum populations, we hypothesise that some bats must experience prolonged infectious periods or within-host latency. By further elucidating plausible mechanisms of virus persistence in bat populations, we contribute to guidance of future field studies.

Star-formation rate in compact star-forming galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izotova, I. Y.; Izotov, Y. I.

2018-03-01

We use the data for the Hβ emission-line, far-ultraviolet (FUV) and mid-infrared 22 μm continuum luminosities to estimate star formation rates < SFR > averaged over the galaxy lifetime for a sample of about 14000 bursting compact star-forming galaxies (CSFGs) selected from the Data Release 12 (DR12) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The average coefficient linking < SFR > and the star formation rate SFR0 derived from the Hβ luminosity at zero starburst age is found to be 0.04. We compare < SFR > s with some commonly used SFRs which are derived adopting a continuous star formation during a period of {˜} 100 Myr, and find that the latter ones are 2-3 times higher. It is shown that the relations between SFRs derived using a geometric mean of two star-formation indicators in the UV and IR ranges and reduced to zero starburst age have considerably lower dispersion compared to those with single star-formation indicators. We suggest that our relations for < SFR > determination are more appropriate for CSFGs because they take into account a proper temporal evolution of their luminosities. On the other hand, we show that commonly used SFR relations can be applied for approximate estimation within a factor of {˜} 2 of the < SFR > averaged over the lifetime of the bursting compact galaxy.

Precision of measurement and body size in whole-body air-displacement plethysmography.

PubMed

Wells, J C; Fuller, N J

2001-08-01

To investigate methodological and biological precision for air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) across a wide range of body size. Repeated measurements of body volume (BV) and body weight (WT), and derived estimates of density (BD) and indices of fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM). Sixteen men, aged 22--48 y; 12 women, aged 24--42 y; 13 boys, aged 5--14 y; 17 girls, aged 5--16 y. BV and WT were measured using the Bodpod ADP system from which estimates of BD, FM and FFM were derived. FM and FFM were further adjusted for height to give fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI). ADP is very precise for measuring both BV and BD (between 0.16 and 0.44% of the mean). After removing two outliers from the database, and converting BD to body composition, precision of FMI was <6% in adults and within 8% in children, while precision of FFMI was within 1.5% for both age groups. ADP shows good precision for BV and BD across a wide range of body size, subject to biological artefacts. If aberrant values can be identified and rejected, precision of body composition is also good. Aberrant values can be identified by using pairs of ADP procedures, allowing the rejection of data where successive BD values differed by >0.007 kg/l. Precision of FMI obtained using pairs of procedures improves to <4.5% in adults and <5.5% in children.

Assessment of cortical bone fracture resistance curves by fusing artificial neural networks and linear regression.

PubMed

Vukicevic, Arso M; Jovicic, Gordana R; Jovicic, Milos N; Milicevic, Vladimir L; Filipovic, Nenad D

2018-02-01

Bone injures (BI) represents one of the major health problems, together with cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Assessment of the risks associated with BI is nontrivial since fragility of human cortical bone is varying with age. Due to restrictions for performing experiments on humans, only a limited number of fracture resistance curves (R-curves) for particular ages have been reported in the literature. This study proposes a novel decision support system for the assessment of bone fracture resistance by fusing various artificial intelligence algorithms. The aim was to estimate the R-curve slope, toughness threshold and stress intensity factor using the two input parameters commonly available during a routine clinical examination: patients age and crack length. Using the data from the literature, the evolutionary assembled Artificial Neural Network was developed and used for the derivation of Linear regression (LR) models of R-curves for arbitrary age. Finally, by using the patient (age)-specific LR models and diagnosed crack size one could estimate the risk of bone fracture under given physiological conditions. Compared to the literature, we demonstrated improved performances for estimating nonlinear changes of R-curve slope (R 2 = 0.82 vs. R 2 = 0.76) and Toughness threshold with ageing (R 2 = 0.73 vs. R 2 = 0.66).

Challenges in the Estimation of the Annual Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Children Aged Less Than 5 Years.

PubMed

Khan, P Y; Glynn, Judith R; Mzembe, T; Mulawa, D; Chiumya, R; Crampin, Amelia C; Kranzer, Katharina; Fielding, Katherine L

2017-10-15

Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012-2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%-11.5% at ages <2 years and 0.8%-3.3% at ages 2-4 years. The Rust and Thomas method was the only method to give a lower estimate in the younger age group (0.7% vs 0.8%), suggesting that it was the only method that adjusted appropriately for the marked effect of BCG-attributable induration in the very young. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death.

PubMed

Merrill, R M; Kessler, L G; Udler, J M; Rasband, G C; Feuer, E J

1999-02-01

Lifetime risk estimates of disease are limited by long-term data extrapolations and are less relevant to individuals who have already lived a period of time without the disease, but are approaching the age at which the disease risk becomes common. In contrast, short-term age-conditional risk estimates, such as the risk of developing a disease in the next 10 years among those alive and free of the disease at a given age, are less restricted by long-term extrapolation of current rates and can present patients with risk information tailored to their age. This study focuses on short-term age-conditional risk estimates for a broad set of important chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death among white and black men and women. The Feuer et al. (1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute) [15] method was applied to data from a variety of sources to obtain risk estimates for select cancers, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and death from motor vehicle accidents, homicide or legal intervention, and suicide. Acute deaths from suicide, homicide or legal intervention, and fatal motor vehicle accidents dominate the risk picture for persons in their 20s, with only diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease therapy (for blacks only) having similar levels of risk in this age range. Late in life, cancer, acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer's, and stroke become most common. The chronic diseases affecting the population later in life present the most likely diseases someone will face. Several interesting differences in disease and death risks were derived and reported among age-specific race and gender subgroups of the population. Presentation of risk estimates for a broad set of chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death within short-term age ranges among population subgroups provides tailored information that may lead to better educated prevention, screening, and control behaviors and more efficient allocation of health resources.

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of remote sensing and fixed-site monitoring approaches for examining air pollution and health in a national study population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prud'homme, Genevieve; Dobbin, Nina A.; Sun, Liu; Burnett, Richard T.; Martin, Randall V.; Davidson, Andrew; Cakmak, Sabit; Villeneuve, Paul J.; Lamsal, Lok N.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Peters, Paul A.; Johnson, Markey

2013-12-01

Satellite remote sensing (RS) has emerged as a cutting edge approach for estimating ground level ambient air pollution. Previous studies have reported a high correlation between ground level PM2.5 and NO2 estimated by RS and measurements collected at regulatory monitoring sites. The current study examined associations between air pollution and adverse respiratory and allergic health outcomes using multi-year averages of NO2 and PM2.5 from RS and from regulatory monitoring. RS estimates were derived using satellite measurements from OMI, MODIS, and MISR instruments. Regulatory monitoring data were obtained from Canada's National Air Pollution Surveillance Network. Self-reported prevalence of doctor-diagnosed asthma, current asthma, allergies, and chronic bronchitis were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey (a national sample of individuals 12 years of age and older). Multi-year ambient pollutant averages were assigned to each study participant based on their six digit postal code at the time of health survey, and were used as a marker for long-term exposure to air pollution. RS derived estimates of NO2 and PM2.5 were associated with 6-10% increases in respiratory and allergic health outcomes per interquartile range (3.97 μg m-3 for PM2.5 and 1.03 ppb for NO2) among adults (aged 20-64) in the national study population. Risk estimates for air pollution and respiratory/allergic health outcomes based on RS were similar to risk estimates based on regulatory monitoring for areas where regulatory monitoring data were available (within 40 km of a regulatory monitoring station). RS derived estimates of air pollution were also associated with adverse health outcomes among participants residing outside the catchment area of the regulatory monitoring network (p < 0.05). The consistency between risk estimates based on RS and regulatory monitoring as well as the associations between air pollution and health among participants living outside the catchment area for regulatory monitoring suggest that RS can provide useful estimates of long-term ambient air pollution in epidemiologic studies. This is particularly important in rural communities and other areas where monitoring and modeled air pollution data are limited or unavailable.

The potential of using thermoluminescence to date buried soils developed on colluvial and fluvial sediments from Utah and Colorado, U.S.A.: Preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forman, S. L.; Jackson, M. E.; McCalpin, J.; Maat, P.

The natural TL intensity for surface and buried Holocene and Pleistocene A horizons developed on flood-plain silts, near Denver, Colorado exponentially decreases with time. This signal is approaching saturation by ca. 130 ka. The A horizon of the modern flood-plain soil is not fully light bleached. The TL properties and age estimates are presented for radiocarbon dated, eolian-enriched buried-A horizons developed on fault-derived colluvium from the American Fork segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah. Dating of these buried soils provide a close age estimate on paleoearthquake events. Mean TL age estimates by regeneration and total bleach techniques for buried A horizons are 0.5 ± 0.1 ka and 2.7 ± 0.4 ka which are in agreement with corresponding radiocarbon dates of 980 ± 70 years BP and 2620 ± 70 years BP. A surface sag pond mud formed within an antithetic grabben is well light bleached and yielded a TL age estimate by the total bleach method of 240 ± 60 years BP, in agreement with its known age of <300 years BP. This study indicates that relatively brief periods of pedogenesis are not sufficient to light-bleach sediment and that eolian additions enhance the reduction of TL in soils.

Extraction, detection, and quantification of flavano-ellagitannins and ethylvescalagin in a Bordeaux red wine aged in oak barrels.

PubMed

Saucier, Cedric; Jourdes, Michael; Glories, Yves; Quideau, Stephane

2006-09-20

An extraction procedure and an analytical method have been developed to detect and quantify for the first time a series of ellagitannin derivatives formed in wine during aging in oak barrels. The method involves a preliminary purification step on XAD7 HP resin followed by a second purification step on TSK 40 HW gel. The resulting extract is analyzed for compound identification and quantitative determination by high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry in single ion recording mode. Reference compounds, which are accessible through hemisynthesis from the oak C-glycosidic ellagitannin vescalagin, were used to build calibration curves, and chlorogenic acid was selected as an internal standard. This method enabled us to estimate the content of four flavano-ellagitannins and that of another newly identified wine polyphenol, beta-1-O-ethylvescalagin, in a Bordeaux red wine aged for 18 months in oak barrels. All five ellagitannin derivatives are derived from the nucleophilic substitution reaction of vescalagin with the grape flavan-3-ols catechin and epicatechin or ethanol.

Use of reflectance spectrophotometry and colorimetry in a general linear model for the determination of the age of bruises.

PubMed

Hughes, Vanessa K; Langlois, Neil E I

2010-12-01

Bruises can have medicolegal significance such that the age of a bruise may be an important issue. This study sought to determine if colorimetry or reflectance spectrophotometry could be employed to objectively estimate the age of bruises. Based on a previously described method, reflectance spectrophotometric scans were obtained from bruises using a Cary 100 Bio spectrophotometer fitted with a fibre-optic reflectance probe. Measurements were taken from the bruise and a control area. Software was used to calculate the first derivative at 490 and 480 nm; the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin was calculated using an isobestic point method and a software application converted the scan data into colorimetry data. In addition, data on factors that might be associated with the determination of the age of a bruise: subject age, subject sex, degree of trauma, bruise size, skin color, body build, and depth of bruise were recorded. From 147 subjects, 233 reflectance spectrophotometry scans were obtained for analysis. The age of the bruises ranged from 0.5 to 231.5 h. A General Linear Model analysis method was used. This revealed that colorimetric measurement of the yellowness of a bruise accounted for 13% of the bruise age. By incorporation of the other recorded data (as above), yellowness could predict up to 32% of the age of a bruise-implying that 68% of the variation was dependent on other factors. However, critical appraisal of the model revealed that the colorimetry method of determining the age of a bruise was affected by skin tone and required a measure of the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin, which is obtained by spectrophotometric methods. Using spectrophotometry, the first derivative at 490 nm alone accounted for 18% of the bruise age estimate. When additional factors (subject sex, bruise depth and oxygenation of hemoglobin) were included in the General Linear Model this increased to 31%-implying that 69% of the variation was dependent on other factors. This indicates that spectrophotometry would be of more use that colorimetry for assessing the age of bruises, but the spectrophotometric method used needs to be refined to provide useful data regarding the estimated age of a bruise. Such refinements might include the use of multiple readings or utilizing a comprehensive mathematical model of the optics of skin.

Prevalence and Correlates of Elder Mistreatment in South Carolina: The South Carolina Elder Mistreatment Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amstadter, Ananda B.; Zajac, Kristyn; Strachan, Martha; Hernandez, Melba A.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Acierno, Ron

2011-01-01

The purposes of this study were to (a) derive prevalence estimates for elder mistreatment (emotional, physical, sexual, neglectful, and financial mistreatment of older adults [age 60 +]) in a randomly selected sample of South Carolinians; (b) examine correlates (i.e., potential risk factors) of mistreatment; and (c) examine incident…

Respiratory syncytial virus--the unrecognised cause of health and economic burden among young children in Australia.

PubMed

Ranmuthugala, Geetha; Brown, Laurie; Lidbury, Brett A

2011-06-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents very similar to influenza and is the principle cause of bronchiolitis in infants and young children worldwide. Yet, there is no systematic monitoring of RSV activity in Australia. This study uses existing published data sources to estimate incidence, hospitalisation rates, and associated costs of RSV among young children in Australia. Published reports from the Laboratory Virology and Serology Reporting Scheme, a passive voluntary surveillance system, and the National Hospital Morbidity Dataset were used to estimate RSV-related age-specific hospitalisation rates in New South Wales and Australia. These estimates and national USA estimates of RSV-related hospitalisation rates were applied to Australian population data to estimate RSV incidence in Australia. Direct economic burden was estimated by applying cost estimates used to derive economic cost associated with the influenza virus. The estimated RSV-related hospitalisation rates ranged from 2.2-4.5 per 1,000 among children less than 5 years of age to 8.7-17.4 per 1,000 among infants. Incidence ranged from 110.0-226.5 per 1,000 among the under five age group to 435.0-869.0 per 1,000 among infants. The total annual direct healthcare cost was estimated to be between $24 million and $50 million. Comparison with the health burdens attributed to the influenza virus and rotavirus suggests that the disease burden caused by RSV is potentially much higher. The limitations associated with using a passive surveillance system to estimate disease burden, and the need to explore further assessments and to monitor RSV activity are discussed.

Derivation and validation of simple anthropometric equations to predict adipose tissue mass and total fat mass with MRI as the reference method

PubMed Central

Al-Gindan, Yasmin Y.; Hankey, Catherine R.; Govan, Lindsay; Gallagher, Dympna; Heymsfield, Steven B.; Lean, Michael E. J.

2017-01-01

The reference organ-level body composition measurement method is MRI. Practical estimations of total adipose tissue mass (TATM), total adipose tissue fat mass (TATFM) and total body fat are valuable for epidemiology, but validated prediction equations based on MRI are not currently available. We aimed to derive and validate new anthropometric equations to estimate MRI-measured TATM/TATFM/total body fat and compare them with existing prediction equations using older methods. The derivation sample included 416 participants (222 women), aged between 18 and 88 years with BMI between 15·9 and 40·8 (kg/m2). The validation sample included 204 participants (110 women), aged between 18 and 86 years with BMI between 15·7 and 36·4 (kg/m2). Both samples included mixed ethnic/racial groups. All the participants underwent whole-body MRI to quantify TATM (dependent variable) and anthropometry (independent variables). Prediction equations developed using stepwise multiple regression were further investigated for agreement and bias before validation in separate data sets. Simplest equations with optimal R2 and Bland–Altman plots demonstrated good agreement without bias in the validation analyses: men: TATM (kg) = 0·198 weight (kg) + 0·478 waist (cm) − 0·147 height (cm) − 12·8 (validation: R2 0·79, CV = 20 %, standard error of the estimate (SEE)=3·8 kg) and women: TATM (kg)=0·789 weight (kg) + 0·0786 age (years) − 0·342 height (cm) + 24·5 (validation: R2 0·84, CV = 13 %, SEE = 3·0 kg). Published anthropometric prediction equations, based on MRI and computed tomographic scans, correlated strongly with MRI-measured TATM: (R2 0·70 – 0·82). Estimated TATFM correlated well with published prediction equations for total body fat based on underwater weighing (R2 0·70–0·80), with mean bias of 2·5–4·9 kg, correctable with log-transformation in most equations. In conclusion, new equations, using simple anthropometric measurements, estimated MRI-measured TATM with correlations and agreements suitable for use in groups and populations across a wide range of fatness. PMID:26435103

Estimating structural attributes of Douglas-fir/western hemlock forest stands from Landsat and SPOT imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Warren B.; Spies, Thomas A.

1992-01-01

Relationships between spectral and texture variables derived from SPOT HRV 10 m panchromatic and Landsat TM 30 m multispectral data and 16 forest stand structural attributes is evaluated to determine the utility of satellite data for analysis of hemlock forests west of the Cascade Mountains crest in Oregon and Washington, USA. Texture of the HRV data was found to be strongly related to many of the stand attributes evaluated, whereas TM texture was weakly related to all attributes. Data analysis based on regression models indicates that both TM and HRV imagery should yield equally accurate estimates of forest age class and stand structure. It is concluded that the satellite data are a valuable source for estimation of the standard deviation of tree sizes, mean size and density of trees in the upper canopy layers, a structural complexity index, and stand age.

The stratigraphy of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanaka, Kenneth L.

1986-01-01

A global stratigraphy of Mars was developed from a global geologic map series derived from Viking images; the stratigraphy is composed of three maps. A new chronostratigraphic classification system which consists of lower, middle, and upper Noachian, Hesperian, and Amazonian systems is described. The crater-density boundaries of the chronostratigraphic units and the absolute ages of the Martian epochs aer estimated. The relative ages of major geologic units and featues are calculated and analyzed. The geologic history of Mars is summarized on the maps in terms of epochs.

The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

PubMed

L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

2000-03-15

The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio (<5.5, 5.5 to <6.5, 6.5 to <7.5, > or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure (<90, > or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

SPIDER. V. MEASURING SYSTEMATIC EFFECTS IN EARLY-TYPE GALAXY STELLAR MASSES FROM PHOTOMETRIC SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION FITTING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swindle, R.; Gal, R. R.; La Barbera, F.

2011-10-15

We present robust statistical estimates of the accuracy of early-type galaxy stellar masses derived from spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting as functions of various empirical and theoretical assumptions. Using large samples consisting of {approx}40,000 galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS; ugriz), of which {approx}5000 are also in the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (YJHK), with spectroscopic redshifts in the range 0.05 {<=} z {<=} 0.095, we test the reliability of some commonly used stellar population models and extinction laws for computing stellar masses. Spectroscopic ages (t), metallicities (Z), and extinctions (A{sub V} ) are also computed from fitsmore » to SDSS spectra using various population models. These external constraints are used in additional tests to estimate the systematic errors in the stellar masses derived from SED fitting, where t, Z, and A{sub V} are typically left as free parameters. We find reasonable agreement in mass estimates among stellar population models, with variation of the initial mass function and extinction law yielding systematic biases on the mass of nearly a factor of two, in agreement with other studies. Removing the near-infrared bands changes the statistical bias in mass by only {approx}0.06 dex, adding uncertainties of {approx}0.1 dex at the 95% CL. In contrast, we find that removing an ultraviolet band is more critical, introducing 2{sigma} uncertainties of {approx}0.15 dex. Finally, we find that the stellar masses are less affected by the absence of metallicity and/or dust extinction knowledge. However, there is a definite systematic offset in the mass estimate when the stellar population age is unknown, up to a factor of 2.5 for very old (12 Gyr) stellar populations. We present the stellar masses for our sample, corrected for the measured systematic biases due to photometrically determined ages, finding that age errors produce lower stellar masses by {approx}0.15 dex, with errors of {approx}0.02 dex at the 95% CL for the median stellar age subsample.« less

Do We Really Have an Age/H_0 Conflict?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, W. A.

1997-12-01

Two independent methods for estimating the age of the universe can both be linked to the absolute magnitudes of the RR Lyrae stars, one based on stellar evolution in globular clusters and the other based on the Hubble Constant derived from globular clusters as distance indicators. The latter has recently been extracted from HST-WFPC2 data for globular clusters in the Coma Cluster galaxy IC 4051 (Baum et al. 1997, AJ, 113, 1483). If RR Lyrae stars are brighter than we have previously thought, the stellar-evolution age estimate is shortened whereas the Hubble age is increased, so we can ask a very simple question: For what RR Lyrae magnitude zero point would the stellar-evolution age coincide with the Hubble age, and is it a reasonable value? Allowing 1 Gyr for globular clusters to have formed, and assuming a classical Einstein-deSitter universe with Lambda = 0, I find the two ages to coincide if M_V(RR) ~ 0.16[Fe/H] + 0.46, which (among other things) puts the Large Magellanic Cloud at (m-M) = 18.78 +/- 0.17 mag. The implied age of the universe is 11.0 +/- 1.4 Gyr, and the corresponding H_0 = 59 +/- 8 km/s per Mpc.

Estimated numbers of men and women infected with HIV/AIDS in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Brouwer, Kimberly C; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Bravo-García, Enrique; Gayet, Cecilia; Patterson, Thomas L; Bertozzi, Stefano M; Hogg, Robert S

2006-03-01

Tijuana, Mexico, just south of San Diego, California, is located by the busiest land border crossing in the world. Although UNAIDS considers Mexico to be a country of "low prevalence, high risk," recent surveillance data among sentinel populations in Tijuana suggests HIV prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of men and women aged 15 to 49 years infected with HIV in Tijuana. Gender and age-specific estimates of the Tijuana population were obtained from the 2000 Mexican census. Population and HIV prevalence estimates for at-risk groups were obtained from published reports, community based studies, and data from the Centro Nacional para la Prevención y Control del VIH/SIDA (CENSIDA). Age-specific fertility rates for Mexico were used to derive the number of low and high-risk pregnant women. Numbers of HIV-positive men and women were estimated for each at-risk group and then aggregated. A high growth scenario based on current HIV prevalence and a conservative, low growth estimate were determined. A total of 686,600 men and women in Tijuana were aged 15 to 49 years at the time of the 2000 census. Considering both scenarios, the number of infected persons ranged from 1,803 to 5,472 (HIV prevalence: 0.26 to 0.80%). The majority of these persons were men (>70%). The largest number of infected persons were MSM (N = 1,146 to 3,300) and IDUs (N = 147 to 650). Our data suggest that up to one in every 125 persons aged 15-49 years in Tijuana is HIV-infected. Interventions to reduce ongoing spread of HIV are urgently needed.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications.

PubMed

Alegana, V A; Atkinson, P M; Pezzulo, C; Sorichetta, A; Weiss, D; Bird, T; Erbach-Schoenberg, E; Tatem, A J

2015-04-06

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings.

The composite dynamic method as evidence for age-specific waterfowl mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, Kenneth P.; Anderson, David R.

1979-01-01

For the past 25 years estimation of mortality rates for waterfowl has been based almost entirely on the composite dynamic life table. We examined the specific assumptions for this method and derived a valid goodness of fit test. We performed this test on 45 data sets representing a cross section of banded sampled for various waterfowl species, geographic areas, banding periods, and age/sex classes. We found that: (1) the composite dynamic method was rejected (P <0.001) in 37 of the 45 data sets (in fact, 29 were rejected at P <0.00001) and (2) recovery and harvest rates are year-specific (a critical violation of the necessary assumptions). We conclude that the restrictive assumptions required for the composite dynamic method to produce valid estimates of mortality rates are not met in waterfowl data. Also we demonstrate that even when the required assumptions are met, the method produces very biased estimates of age-specific mortality rates. We believe the composite dynamic method should not be used in the analysis of waterfowl banding data. Furthermore, the composite dynamic method does not provide valid evidence for age-specific mortality rates in waterfowl.

Prediction of fat-free body mass from bioelectrical impedance and anthropometry among 3-year-old children using DXA

PubMed Central

Ejlerskov, Katrine T.; Jensen, Signe M.; Christensen, Line B.; Ritz, Christian; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Mølgaard, Christian

2014-01-01

For 3-year-old children suitable methods to estimate body composition are sparse. We aimed to develop predictive equations for estimating fat-free mass (FFM) from bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and anthropometry using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as reference method using data from 99 healthy 3-year-old Danish children. Predictive equations were derived from two multiple linear regression models, a comprehensive model (height2/resistance (RI), six anthropometric measurements) and a simple model (RI, height, weight). Their uncertainty was quantified by means of 10-fold cross-validation approach. Prediction error of FFM was 3.0% for both equations (root mean square error: 360 and 356 g, respectively). The derived equations produced BIA-based prediction of FFM and FM near DXA scan results. We suggest that the predictive equations can be applied in similar population samples aged 2–4 years. The derived equations may prove useful for studies linking body composition to early risk factors and early onset of obesity. PMID:24463487

Prediction of fat-free body mass from bioelectrical impedance and anthropometry among 3-year-old children using DXA.

PubMed

Ejlerskov, Katrine T; Jensen, Signe M; Christensen, Line B; Ritz, Christian; Michaelsen, Kim F; Mølgaard, Christian

2014-01-27

For 3-year-old children suitable methods to estimate body composition are sparse. We aimed to develop predictive equations for estimating fat-free mass (FFM) from bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and anthropometry using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as reference method using data from 99 healthy 3-year-old Danish children. Predictive equations were derived from two multiple linear regression models, a comprehensive model (height(2)/resistance (RI), six anthropometric measurements) and a simple model (RI, height, weight). Their uncertainty was quantified by means of 10-fold cross-validation approach. Prediction error of FFM was 3.0% for both equations (root mean square error: 360 and 356 g, respectively). The derived equations produced BIA-based prediction of FFM and FM near DXA scan results. We suggest that the predictive equations can be applied in similar population samples aged 2-4 years. The derived equations may prove useful for studies linking body composition to early risk factors and early onset of obesity.

Methane hydrate-bearing seeps as a source of aged dissolved organic carbon to the oceans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pohlman, J.W.; Bauer, J.E.; Waite, W.F.; Osburn, C.L.; Chapman, N.R.

2011-01-01

Marine sediments contain about 500-10,000 Gt of methane carbon, primarily in gas hydrate. This reservoir is comparable in size to the amount of organic carbon in land biota, terrestrial soils, the atmosphere and sea water combined, but it releases relatively little methane to the ocean and atmosphere. Sedimentary microbes convert most of the dissolved methane to carbon dioxide. Here we show that a significant additional product associated with microbial methane consumption is methane-derived dissolved organic carbon. We use ??14 C and ??13 C measurements and isotopic mass-balance calculations to evaluate the contribution of methane-derived carbon to seawater dissolved organic carbon overlying gas hydrate-bearing seeps in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We show that carbon derived from fossil methane accounts for up to 28% of the dissolved organic carbon. This methane-derived material is much older, and more depleted in 13 C, than background dissolved organic carbon. We suggest that fossil methane-derived carbon may contribute significantly to the estimated 4,000-6,000 year age of dissolved organic carbon in the deep ocean, and provide reduced organic matter and energy to deep-ocean microbial communities. ?? 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Transpiration in an oil palm landscape: effects of palm age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röll, A.; Niu, F.; Meijide, A.; Hardanto, A.; Hendrayanto; Knohl, A.; Hölscher, D.

2015-06-01

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) plantations cover large and continuously increasing areas of humid tropical lowlands. Landscapes dominated by oil palms usually consist of a mosaic of mono-cultural, homogeneous stands of varying age, which may be heterogeneous in their water use characteristics. However, studies on the water use characteristics of oil palms are still at an early stage and there is a lack of knowledge on how oil palm expansion will affect the major components of the hydrological cycle. To provide first insights into hydrological landscape-level consequences of oil palm cultivation, we derived transpiration rates of oil palms in stands of varying age, estimated the contribution of palm transpiration to evapotranspiration, and analyzed the influence of fluctuations in environmental variables on oil palm water use. We studied 15 two- to 25 year old stands in the lowlands of Jambi, Indonesia. A sap flux technique with an oil palm specific calibration and sampling scheme was used to derive leaf-, palm- and stand-level water use rates in all stands under comparable environmental conditions. Additionally, in a two- and a 12 year old stand, eddy covariance measurements were conducted to derive evapotranspiration rates. Water use rates per leaf and palm increased 5-fold from an age of two years to a stand age of approx. 10 years and then remained relatively constant. A similar trend was visible, but less pronounced, for estimated stand transpiration rates of oil palms; they varied 12-fold, from 0.2 mm day-1 in a 2 year old to 2.5 mm day-1 in a 12 year old stand, showing particularly high variability in transpiration rates among medium-aged stands. Confronting sap flux and eddy-covariance derived water fluxes suggests that transpiration contributed 8 % to evapotranspiration in the 2 year old stand and 53 % in the 12 year old stand, indicating variable and substantial additional sources of evaporation, e.g. from the soil, the ground vegetation and from trunk epiphytes. Diurnally, oil palm transpiration rates were characterized by an early peak between 10 and 11 a.m.; there was a pronounced hysteresis in the leaf water use response to changes in vapor pressure deficit for all palms of advanced age. On the day-to-day basis this resulted in a relatively low variability of oil palm water use regardless of fluctuations in vapor pressure deficit and radiation. We conclude, that oil palm dominated landscapes show some spatial variations in (evapo)transpiration rates, e.g. due to varying age-structures, but that the temporal variability of oil palm transpiration is rather low. Stand transpiration rates of some studied oil palm stands compared to or even exceed values reported for different tropical forests, indicating a high water use of oil palms under certain site or management conditions. Our study provides first insights into the eco-hydrological characteristics of oil palms as well as a first estimate of oil palm water use across a gradient of plantation age. It sheds first light on some of the hydrological consequences of the continuing expansion of oil palm plantations.

Transpiration in an oil palm landscape: effects of palm age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röll, A.; Niu, F.; Meijide, A.; Hardanto, A.; Hendrayanto; Knohl, A.; Hölscher, D.

2015-10-01

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) plantations cover large and continuously increasing areas of humid tropical lowlands. Landscapes dominated by oil palms usually consist of a mosaic of mono-cultural, homogeneous stands of varying age, which may be heterogeneous in their water use characteristics. However, studies on the water use characteristics of oil palms are still at an early stage and there is a lack of knowledge on how oil palm expansion will affect the major components of the hydrological cycle. To provide first insights into hydrological landscape-level consequences of oil palm cultivation, we derived transpiration rates of oil palms in stands of varying age, estimated the contribution of palm transpiration to evapotranspiration, and analyzed the influence of fluctuations in environmental variables on oil palm water use. We studied 15 two- to 25-year old stands in the lowlands of Jambi, Indonesia. A sap flux technique with an oil palm specific calibration and sampling scheme was used to derive leaf-, palm- and stand-level water use rates in all stands under comparable environmental conditions. Additionally, in a two- and a 12-year old stand, eddy covariance measurements were conducted to derive evapotranspiration rates. Water use rates per leaf and palm increased 5-fold from an age of 2 years to a stand age of approx. 10 years and then remained relatively constant. A similar trend was visible, but less pronounced, for estimated stand transpiration rates of oil palms; they varied 12-fold, from 0.2 mm day-1 in a 2-year old to 2.5 mm day-1 in a 12-year old stand, showing particularly high variability in transpiration rates among medium-aged stands. Comparing sap flux and eddy-covariance derived water fluxes suggests that transpiration contributed 8 % to evapotranspiration in the 2-year old stand and 53 % in the 12-year old stand, indicating variable and substantial additional sources of evaporation, e.g., from the soil, the ground vegetation and from trunk epiphytes. Diurnally, oil palm transpiration rates were characterized by an early peak between 10 and 11 a.m.; there was a pronounced hysteresis in the leaf water use response to changes in vapor pressure deficit for all palms of advanced age. On the day-to-day basis this resulted in a relatively low variability of oil palm water use regardless of fluctuations in vapor pressure deficit and radiation. We conclude that oil palm dominated landscapes show some spatial variations in (evapo)transpiration rates, e.g., due to varying age-structures, but that the temporal variability of oil palm transpiration is rather low. The stand transpiration of some of the studied oil palm stands was as high or even higher than values reported for different tropical forests, indicating a high water use of oil palms under yet to be explained site or management conditions. Our study provides first insights into the eco-hydrological characteristics of oil palms as well as a first estimate of oil palm water use across a gradient of plantation age. It sheds first light on some of the hydrological consequences of the continuing expansion of oil palm plantations.

Using Naturally Occurring Radionuclides To Determine Drinking Water Age in a Community Water System.

PubMed

Waples, James T; Bordewyk, Jason K; Knesting, Kristina M; Orlandini, Kent A

2015-08-18

Drinking water quality in a community water system is closely linked to the age of water from initial treatment to time of delivery. However, water age is difficult to measure with conventional chemical tracers; particularly in stagnant water, where the relationship between disinfectant decay, microbial growth, and water age is poorly understood. Using radionuclides that were naturally present in source water, we found that measured activity ratios of (90)Y/(90)Sr and (234)Th/(238)U in discrete drinking water samples of known age accurately estimated water age up to 9 days old (σest: ± 3.8 h, P < 0.0001, r(2) = 0.998, n = 11) and 25 days old (σest: ± 13.3 h, P < 0.0001, r(2) = 0.996, n = 12), respectively. Moreover, (90)Y-derived water ages in a community water system (6.8 × 10(4) m(3) d(-1) capacity) were generally consistent with water ages derived from an extended period simulation model. Radionuclides differ from conventional chemical tracers in that they are ubiquitous in distribution mains and connected premise plumbing. The ability to measure both water age and an analyte (e.g., chemical or microbe) in any water sample at any time allows for new insight into factors that control drinking water quality.

The 'Own Children' fertility estimation procedure: a reappraisal.

PubMed

Avery, Christopher; St Clair, Travis; Levin, Michael; Hill, Kenneth

2013-07-01

The Full Birth History has become the dominant source of estimates of fertility levels and trends for countries lacking complete birth registration. An alternative, the 'Own Children' method, derives fertility estimates from household age distributions, but is now rarely used, partly because of concerns about its accuracy. We compared the estimates from these two procedures by applying them to 56 recent Demographic and Health Surveys. On average, 'Own Children' estimates of recent total fertility rates are 3 per cent lower than birth-history estimates. Much of this difference stems from selection bias in the collection of birth histories: women with more children are more likely to be interviewed. We conclude that full birth histories overestimate total fertility, and that the 'Own Children' method gives estimates of total fertility that may better reflect overall national fertility. We recommend the routine application of the 'Own Children' method to census and household survey data to estimate fertility levels and trends.

Prediction of brain maturity based on cortical thickness at different spatial resolutions.

PubMed

Khundrakpam, Budhachandra S; Tohka, Jussi; Evans, Alan C

2015-05-01

Several studies using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans have shown developmental trajectories of cortical thickness. Cognitive milestones happen concurrently with these structural changes, and a delay in such changes has been implicated in developmental disorders such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Accurate estimation of individuals' brain maturity, therefore, is critical in establishing a baseline for normal brain development against which neurodevelopmental disorders can be assessed. In this study, cortical thickness derived from structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of a large longitudinal dataset of normally growing children and adolescents (n=308), were used to build a highly accurate predictive model for estimating chronological age (cross-validated correlation up to R=0.84). Unlike previous studies which used kernelized approach in building prediction models, we used an elastic net penalized linear regression model capable of producing a spatially sparse, yet accurate predictive model of chronological age. Upon investigating different scales of cortical parcellation from 78 to 10,240 brain parcels, we observed that the accuracy in estimated age improved with increased spatial scale of brain parcellation, with the best estimations obtained for spatial resolutions consisting of 2560 and 10,240 brain parcels. The top predictors of brain maturity were found in highly localized sensorimotor and association areas. The results of our study demonstrate that cortical thickness can be used to estimate individuals' brain maturity with high accuracy, and the estimated ages relate to functional and behavioural measures, underscoring the relevance and scope of the study in the understanding of biological maturity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

PubMed Central

Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2013-01-01

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

Epidemiology of violent deaths in the world

PubMed Central

Reza, A; Mercy, J; Krug, E

2001-01-01

Objective—This study describes epidemiologic patterns of mortality due to suicide, homicide, and war for the world in order to serve as a benchmark against which to measure future progress and to raise awareness about violence as a global public health problem. Setting—The world and its eight major regions. Method—Data were derived from The Global Burden of Disease series and the US National Center for Health Statistics to estimate crude rates, age adjusted rates, sex rate ratios, and the health burden for suicide, homicide, and war related deaths for the world and its eight major regions in 1990. Results—In 1990, an estimated 1 851 000 people died from violence (35.3 per 100 000) in the world. There were an estimated 786 000 suicides. Overall suicide rates ranged from 3.4 per 100 000 in Sub-Saharan Africa to 30.4 per 100 000 in China. There were an estimated 563 000 homicides. Overall homicide rates ranged from 1.0 per 100 000 in established market economies to 44.8 per 100 000 in Sub-Saharan Africa with peaks among males aged 15–24 years old, and among females aged 0–4 years old. There were an estimated 502 000 war related deaths with peaks in rates for both sexes among people aged 0–4, 15–29, and 60–69 years old. Conclusion—The number of violence related deaths in the world is unacceptably high. Coordinated prevention and control efforts are urgently needed. PMID:11428556

Fast food intake in Canada: Differences among Canadians with diverse demographic, socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics.

PubMed

Black, Jennifer L; Billette, Jean-Michel

2015-02-03

To estimate the contribution of fast food to daily energy intake, and compare intake among Canadians with varied demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle characteristics. Using the National Cancer Institute method, nationally representative estimates of mean usual daily caloric intake from fast food were derived from 24-hour dietary recall data from the Canadian Community Health Survey Cycle 2.2 (n = 17,509) among participants age ≥ 2 years. Mean daily intake and relative proportion of calories derived from fast food were compared among respondents with diverse demographic (age, sex, provincial and rural/urban residence), socio-economic (income, education, food security status) and health and lifestyle characteristics (physical activity, fruit/vegetable intake, vitamin/ mineral supplement use, smoking, binge drinking, body mass index (BMI), self-rated health and dietary quality). On average, Canadians reported consuming 146 kcal/day from fast food, contributing to 6.3% of usual energy intake. Intake was highest among male teenagers (248 kcal) and lowest among women ≥ 70 years of age (32 kcal). Fast food consumption was significantly higher among respondents who reported lower fruit and vegetable intake, poorer dietary quality, binge drinking, not taking vitamin/mineral supplements (adults only), and persons with higher BMI. Socio-economic status, physical activity, smoking and self-rated health were not significantly associated with fast food intake. While average Canadian fast food consumption is lower than national US estimates, intake was associated with lower dietary quality and higher BMI. Findings suggest that research and intervention strategies should focus on dietary practices of children and adolescents, whose fast food intakes are among the highest in Canada.

Identification, amounts, and kinetics of extraction of C-glucosidic ellagitannins during wine aging in oak barrels or in stainless steel tanks with oak chips.

PubMed

Jourdes, Michaël; Michel, Julien; Saucier, Cédric; Quideau, Stéphane; Teissedre, Pierre-Louis

2011-09-01

The C-glucosidic ellagitannins are found in wine as a result of its aging in oak barrels or in stainless steel tanks with oak chips. Once dissolved in this slightly acidic solution, the C-glucosidic ellagitannins vescalagin can react with nucleophilic entities present in red wine, such as ethanol, catechin, and epicatechin, to generate condensed hybrid products such as the β-1-O-ethylvescalagin and the flavano-ellagitannins (acutissimin A/B and epiacutissimin A/B), respectively. During this study, we first monitored the extraction kinetic and the evolution of the eight major oak-derived C-glucosidic ellagitannins in red wines aged in oak barrels or in stainless steel tank with oak chips. Their extraction rates appeared to be faster during red wine aging in stainless steel tanks with oak chips. However, their overall concentrations in wines were found higher in the wine aged in barrels. The formation rates of the vescalagin-coupled derivatives were also estimated for the first time under both red wine aging conditions (i.e., oak barrels or stainless steel tanks with oak chips). As observed for the oak-native C-glucosidic ellagitannins, the concentrations of these vescalagin derivatives were higher in the red wine aged in oak barrels than in stainless steel tanks with oak chips. Despite these differences, their relative composition was similar under both red wine aging conditions. Finally, the impact of the oak chips size and toasting level on the C-glucosidic ellagitannins concentration in wine was also investigated.

An integrated environmental tracer approach to characterizing groundwater circulation in a mountain block

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manning, Andrew H.; Solomon, D. Kip

2005-01-01

The subsurface transfer of water from a mountain block to an adjacent basin (mountain block recharge (MBR)) is a commonly invoked mechanism of recharge to intermountain basins. However, MBR estimates are highly uncertain. We present an approach to characterize bulk fluid circulation in a mountain block and thus MBR that utilizes environmental tracers from the basin aquifer. Noble gas recharge temperatures, groundwater ages, and temperature data combined with heat and fluid flow modeling are used to identify clearly improbable flow regimes in the southeastern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and adjacent Wasatch Mountains. The range of possible MBR rates is reduced by 70%. Derived MBR rates (5.5–12.6 × 104 m3 d−1) are on the same order of magnitude as previous large estimates, indicating that significant MBR to intermountain basins is plausible. However, derived rates are 50–100% of the lowest previous estimate, meaning total recharge is probably less than previously thought.

BrainAGE score indicates accelerated brain aging in schizophrenia, but not bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Nenadić, Igor; Dietzek, Maren; Langbein, Kerstin; Sauer, Heinrich; Gaser, Christian

2017-08-30

BrainAGE (brain age gap estimation) is a novel morphometric parameter providing a univariate score derived from multivariate voxel-wise analyses. It uses a machine learning approach and can be used to analyse deviation from physiological developmental or aging-related trajectories. Using structural MRI data and BrainAGE quantification of acceleration or deceleration of in individual aging, we analysed data from 45 schizophrenia patients, 22 bipolar I disorder patients (mostly with previous psychotic symptoms / episodes), and 70 healthy controls. We found significantly higher BrainAGE scores in schizophrenia, but not bipolar disorder patients. Our findings indicate significantly accelerated brain structural aging in schizophrenia. This suggests, that despite the conceptualisation of schizophrenia as a neurodevelopmental disorder, there might be an additional progressive pathogenic component. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Age of the Surface of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, K. J.; McKinnon, William B.; Young, Richard E. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Impact craters on Venus appear to be uniformly and randomly scattered over a once, but no longer, geologically active planet. To first approximation, the planet shows a single surface of a single age. Here we use Monte Carlo cratering simulations to estimate the age of the surface of Venus. The simulations are based on the present populations of Earth-approaching asteroids, Jupiter-family, Halley-family, and long period comets; they use standard Schmidt-Housen crater scalings in the gravity regime; and they describe interaction with the atmosphere using a semi-analytic 'pancake' model that is calibrated to detailed numerical simulations of impactors striking Venus. The lunar and terrestrial cratering records are also simulated. Both of these records suffer from poor statistics. The Moon has few young large craters and fewer still whose ages are known, and the record is biased because small craters tend to look old and large craters tend to look young. The craters of the Earth provide the only reliable ages, but these craters are few, eroded, of uncertain diameter, and statistically incomplete. Together the three cratering records can be inverted to constrain the flux of impacting bodies, crater diameters given impact parameters, and the calibration of atmospheric interactions. The surface age of Venus that results is relatively young. Alternatively, we can use our best estimates for these three input parameters to derive a best estimate for the age of the surface of Venus. Our tentative conclusions are that comets are unimportant, that the lunar and terrestrial crater records are both subject to strong biases, that there is no strong evidence for an increasing cratering flux in recent years, and that that the nominal age of the surface of Venus is about 600 Ma, although the uncertainty is about a factor of two. The chief difference between our estimate and earlier, somewhat younger estimates is that we find that the venusian atmosphere is less permeable to impacting bodies than supposed by earlier studies. An older surface increases the likelihood that Venus is dead.

Validation of maturity offset in a longitudinal sample of Polish boys.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Kozieł, Sławomir M

2014-01-01

Abstract This study attempted to validate an anthropometric equation for predicting age at peak height velocity (APHV) in 193 Polish boys followed longitudinally 8-18 years (1961-1972). Actual APHV was derived with Preece-Baines Model 1. Predicted APHV was estimated at each observation using chronological age (CA), stature, mass, sitting height and estimated leg length. Mean predicted APHV increased from 8 to 18 years. Actual APHV was underestimated at younger ages and overestimated at older ages. Mean differences between predicted and actual APHV were reasonably stable between 13 and 15 years. Predicted APHV underestimated actual APHV 3 years before, was almost identical with actual age 2 years before, and then overestimated actual age through 3 years after PHV. Predicted APHV did not differ among boys of contrasting maturity status 8-11 years, but diverged among groups 12-15 years. In conclusion, predicted APHV is influenced by CA and by early and late timing of actual PHV. Predicted APHV has applicability among average maturing boys 12-16 years in contrast to late and early maturing boys. Dependence upon age and individual differences in actual APHV limits utility of predicted APHV in research with male youth athletes and in talent programmes.

An evidence synthesis approach to estimating the incidence of seasonal influenza in the Netherlands.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; Presanis, Anne M; De Angelis, Daniela; van der Hoek, Wim; Hooiveld, Mariette; Donker, Gé; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E

2014-01-01

To estimate, using Bayesian evidence synthesis, the age-group-specific annual incidence of symptomatic infection with seasonal influenza in the Netherlands over the period 2005-2007. The Netherlands population and age group distribution for 2006 defined the base population. The number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases was estimated from sentinel surveillance data and adjusted for underascertainment using the estimated proportion of ILI cases that do not consult a general practitioner. The estimated number of symptomatic influenza (SI) cases was based on indirect evidence from the surveillance of ILI cases and the proportions of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the 2004/5, 2005/6 and 2006/7 respiratory years. In scenario analysis, the number of SI cases prevented by increasing vaccination uptake within the 65 +  age group was estimated. The overall symptomatic infection attack rate (SIAR) over the period 2005-2007 was estimated at 2·5% (95% credible interval [CI]: 2·1-3·2%); 410 200 SI cases (95% CI: 338 500-518 600) were estimated to occur annually. Age-group-specific SIARs were estimated for <5 years at 4·9% (2·1-13·7%), for 5-14 years at 3·0% (2·0-4·7%), for 15-44 years at 2·6% (2·1-3·2%), for 45-64 years at 1·9% (1·4-2·5%) and for 65 +  years at 1·7% (1·0-3·0%). Under assumed vaccination uptake increases of 5% and 15%, 1970 and 5310 SI cases would be averted. By synthesising the available information on seasonal influenza and ILI from diverse sources, the annual extent of symptomatic infection can be derived. These estimates are useful for assessing the burden of seasonal influenza and for guiding vaccination policy. © 2013 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of food photographs for use with children aged 18 months to 16 years: Comparison against weighed food diaries - The Young Person's Food Atlas (UK).

PubMed

Foster, Emma; Hawkins, Adrian; Barton, Karen L; Stamp, Elaine; Matthews, John N S; Adamson, Ashley J

2017-01-01

Traditional dietary assessment methods, used in the UK, such as weighed food diaries impose a large participant burden, often resulting in difficulty recruiting representative samples and underreporting of energy intakes. One approach to reducing the burden placed on the participant is to use portion size assessment tools to obtain an estimate of the amount of food consumed, removing the need to weigh all foods. An age range specific food atlas was developed for use in assessing children's dietary intakes. The foods selected and portion sizes depicted were derived from intakes recorded during the UK National Diet and Nutrition Surveys of children aged 1.5 to 16 years. Estimates of food portion sizes using the food atlas were compared against 4-day weighed intakes along with in-school / nursery observations, by the research team. Interviews were conducted with parents the day after completion of the diary, and for children aged 4 to 16 years, also with the child. Mean estimates of portion size consumed were within 7% of the weight of food recorded in the weighed food diary. The limits of agreement were wide indicating high variability of estimates at the individual level but the precision increased with increasing age. For children 11 years and over, agreement with weighed food diaries, was as good as that of their parents in terms of total weight of food consumed and of intake of energy and key nutrients. The age appropriate food photographs offer an alternative to weighed intakes for dietary assessment with children.

Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

PubMed

Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

2016-06-01

The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

Number of 24-Hour Diet Recalls Needed to Estimate Energy Intake

PubMed Central

MA, Yunsheng; Olendzki, Barbara C.; Pagoto, Sherry L.; Hurley, Thomas G.; Magner, Robert P.; Ockene, Ira S.; Schneider, Kristin L.; Merriam, Philip A.; Hébert, James R.

2009-01-01

Purpose Twenty-four-hour diet recall interviews (24HRs) are used to assess diet and to validate other diet assessment instruments. Therefore it is important to know how many 24HRs are required to describe an individual's intake. Method Seventy-nine middle-aged white women completed seven 24HRs over a 14-day period, during which energy expenditure (EE) was determined by the doubly labeled water method (DLW). Mean daily intakes were compared to DLW-derived EE using paired t tests. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effect of call sequence and day of the week on 24HR-derived energy intake while adjusting for education, relative body weight, social desirability, and an interaction between call sequence and social desirability. Results Mean EE from DLW was 2115 kcal/day. Adjusted 24HR-derived energy intake was lowest at call 1 (1501 kcal/day); significantly higher energy intake was observed at calls 2 and 3 (2246 and 2315 kcal/day, respectively). Energy intake on Friday was significantly lower than on Sunday. Averaging energy intake from the first two calls better approximated true energy expenditure than did the first call, and averaging the first three calls further improved the estimate (p = 0.02 for both comparisons). Additional calls did not improve estimation. Conclusions Energy intake is underreported on the first 24HR. Three 24HRs appear optimal for estimating energy intake. PMID:19576535

Number of 24-hour diet recalls needed to estimate energy intake.

PubMed

Ma, Yunsheng; Olendzki, Barbara C; Pagoto, Sherry L; Hurley, Thomas G; Magner, Robert P; Ockene, Ira S; Schneider, Kristin L; Merriam, Philip A; Hébert, James R

2009-08-01

Twenty-four-hour diet recall interviews (24HRs) are used to assess diet and to validate other diet assessment instruments. Therefore it is important to know how many 24HRs are required to describe an individual's intake. Seventy-nine middle-aged white women completed seven 24HRs over a 14-day period, during which energy expenditure (EE) was determined by the doubly labeled water method (DLW). Mean daily intakes were compared to DLW-derived EE using paired t tests. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effect of call sequence and day of the week on 24HR-derived energy intake while adjusting for education, relative body weight, social desirability, and an interaction between call sequence and social desirability. Mean EE from DLW was 2115 kcal/day. Adjusted 24HR-derived energy intake was lowest at call 1 (1501 kcal/day); significantly higher energy intake was observed at calls 2 and 3 (2246 and 2315 kcal/day, respectively). Energy intake on Friday was significantly lower than on Sunday. Averaging energy intake from the first two calls better approximated true energy expenditure than did the first call, and averaging the first three calls further improved the estimate (p=0.02 for both comparisons). Additional calls did not improve estimation. Energy intake is underreported on the first 24HR. Three 24HRs appear optimal for estimating energy intake.

A history of presatellite investigations of the earth's radiation budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, G. E.; Kandel, R.; Mecherikunnel, A. T.

1986-01-01

The history of radiation budget studies from the early twentieth century to the advent of the space age is reviewed. By the beginning of the 1960's, accurate radiative models had been developed capable of estimating the global and zonally averaged components of the radiation budget, though great uncertainty in the derived parameters existed due to inaccuracy of the data describing the physical parameters used in the model, associated with clouds, the solar radiation, and the gaseous atmospheric absorbers. Over the century, the planetary albedo estimates had reduced from 89 to 30 percent.

Efficacy of otoliths and first dorsal spines for preliminary age and growth determination in Atlantic Tripletails

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parr, Russell T.; Bringolf, Robert B.; Jennings, Cecil A.

2018-01-01

The Atlantic Tripletail Lobotes surinamensis is a popular sport fish for which age and growth data are scarce in general and nonexistent for Georgia (GA), USA, waters. These data are necessary to ensure that management regulations are adequate to protect this species, especially given its popularity as a sport fish. We evaluated whether otoliths and spines were suitable for determining the estimated age (hereafter, “age”) and growth rates of Atlantic Tripletails, and we ascertained whether one method was more accurate than the other. Atlantic Tripletails were sampled by angling and trawling during March 30–August 10, 2009, and March 14–August 6, 2010, in nearshore GA waters of the Atlantic Ocean. During the study, 243 Atlantic Tripletails were captured and sampled for aging structures. Sagittal otoliths and the first dorsal spine were removed from each fish and used to estimate the age and growth rate. Mean differences in TL at age for spine and otolith data were evaluated with ANOVA. Estimated ages for males and females ranged from 1 to 5 years based on otoliths and spines. Both otolith and spine mean TLs at ages 1 and 2 were significantly different from each other as well as all other age‐classes, whereas mean TLs for ages 3–5 were not significantly different. Differences in Atlantic Tripletail TL among the otolith‐ and spine‐derived age‐classes were not significant. Each method used to age Atlantic Tripletails had advantages and disadvantages. Otoliths had higher initial reader agreement than spines, although agreement between the structures was 84.1%. However, otoliths require sacrifice of the fish, whereas a spine can be taken without sacrificing the fish. The lack of concrete life history data and population estimates suggests that when feasible, nonlethal aging methods would be preferred over lethal methods to ensure the survival of Atlantic Tripletail populations.

The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background For accurate estimation of the future burden of communicable diseases, the dynamics of the population at risk – namely population growth and population ageing – need to be taken into account. Accurate burden estimates are necessary for informing policy-makers regarding the planning of vaccination and other control, intervention, and prevention measures. Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000–2030. Methods Population-level disease burden was quantified using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure applied to all health outcomes following acute infection. We used national notification data, pre-defined disease progression models, and a simple model of demographic dynamics to investigate the impact of population ageing on the burden of seasonal influenza and HBV. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore the potential impact of intervention-associated changes in incidence rates. Results Including population dynamics resulted in increasing burden over the study period for influenza, whereas a relatively stable future burden was predicted for HBV. For influenza, the increase in DALYs was localised within YLL for the oldest age-groups (55 and older), and for HBV the effect of longer life expectancy in the future was offset by a reduction in incidence in the age-groups most at risk of infection. For both infections, the predicted disease burden was greater than if a static demography was assumed: 1.0 (in 2000) to 2.3-fold (in 2030) higher DALYs for influenza; 1.3 (in 2000) to 1.5-fold (in 2030) higher for HBV. Conclusions There are clear, but diverging effects of an ageing population on the estimated disease burden of influenza and HBV in the Netherlands. Replacing static assumptions with a dynamic demographic approach appears essential for deriving realistic burden estimates for informing health policy. PMID:23217094

Regional Evaluation of Groundwater Age Distributions Using Lumped Parameter Models with Large, Sparse Datasets: Example from the Central Valley, California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgens, B. C.; Bohlke, J. K.; Voss, S.; Fram, M. S.; Esser, B.

2015-12-01

Tracer-based, lumped parameter models (LPMs) are an appealing way to estimate the distribution of age for groundwater because the cost of sampling wells is often less than building numerical groundwater flow models sufficiently complex to provide groundwater age distributions. In practice, however, tracer datasets are often incomplete because of anthropogenic or terrigenic contamination of tracers, or analytical limitations. While age interpretations using such datsets can have large uncertainties, it may still be possible to identify key parts of the age distribution if LPMs are carefully chosen to match hydrogeologic conceptualization and the degree of age mixing is reasonably estimated. We developed a systematic approach for evaluating groundwater age distributions using LPMs with a large but incomplete set of tracer data (3H, 3Hetrit, 14C, and CFCs) from 535 wells, mostly used for public supply, in the Central Valley, California, USA that were sampled by the USGS for the California State Water Resources Control Board Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment or the USGS National Water Quality Assessment Programs. In addition to mean ages, LPMs gave estimates of unsaturated zone travel times, recharge rates for pre- and post-development groundwater, the degree of age mixing in wells, proportion of young water (<60 yrs), and the depth of the boundary between post-development and predevelopment groundwater throughout the Central Valley. Age interpretations were evaluated by comparing past nitrate trends with LPM predicted trends, and whether the presence or absence of anthropogenic organic compounds was consistent with model results. This study illustrates a practical approach for assessing groundwater age information at a large scale to reveal important characteristics about the age structure of a major aquifer, and of the water supplies being derived from it.

YSOVAR: The Age of the Cepheus C Star Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Jessica; Covey, K.; YSOVAR

2014-01-01

We constructed a spectroscopic Hertzsprung-Russell diagram for the Cepheus C (Ceph C) sub-cluster, which we use to generate the first quantitative measurement of this young cluster’s age. Using two TripleSpec spectrographs, on the 3.5m telescope at Apache Point Ob- servatory and the 200” telescope at Palomar Observatory, we obtained near infrared (NIR) spectra for 31 candidate Ceph C members. By comparing our target spectra to a large library of dwarf, sub-giant, and giant star templates, we measured spectral types for candidate Ceph C members ranging from F2 to M2.5. We converted each YSO’s ST into a Teff estimate using the ST to Teff relation recently published by Pecaut et al. (2013). Using our spectroscopically derived extinction estimates to deredden spectral energy distributions constructed from 2MASS and Spitzer photometry, we measured each YSO’s bolometric luminosity. Placing each candidate Ceph C member on an HR Dia- gram, we used Dartmouth pre-main sequence evolutionary tracks to estimate the mass and age of each YSO. We measure a median stellar age for the Ceph C cluster of ˜10 Myrs or less. We also detect a large systematic effect in our ages, however, such that cooler, low mass mem- bers have substantially smaller inferred ages than their higher mass counterparts. We are working to understand the root cause of this systematic effect, but this first estimate of Ceph C’s age will advance our understanding of the cluster’s relationship to other sub clusters in Cepheus, and place the Ceph C cluster in context among other local star forming regions. This research was funded by the NSF through grant number AST-1004107.

Child mortality after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Kanter, Robert K

2010-03-01

Age-specific pediatric health consequences of community disruption after Hurricane Katrina have not been analyzed. Post-Katrina vital statistics are unavailable. The objectives of this study were to validate an alternative method to estimate child mortality rates in the greater New Orleans area and compare pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates. Pre-Katrina 2004 child mortality was estimated from death reports in the local daily newspaper and validated by comparison with pre-Katrina data from the Louisiana Department of Health. Post-Katrina child mortality rates were analyzed as a measure of health consequences. Newspaper-derived estimates of mortality rates appear to be valid except for possible underreporting of neonatal rates. Pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates were similar for all age groups except infants. Post-Katrina, a 92% decline in mortality rate occurred for neonates (<28 days), and a 57% decline in mortality rate occurred for postneonatal infants (28 days-1 year). The post-Katrina decline in infant mortality rate exceeds the pre-Katrina discrepancy between newspaper-derived and Department of Health-reported rates. A declining infant mortality rate raises questions about persistent displacement of high-risk infants out of the region. Otherwise, there is no evidence of long-lasting post-Katrina excess child mortality. Further investigation of demographic changes would be of interest to local decision makers and planners for recovery after public health emergencies in other regions.

Threshold regression to accommodate a censored covariate.

PubMed

Qian, Jing; Chiou, Sy Han; Maye, Jacqueline E; Atem, Folefac; Johnson, Keith A; Betensky, Rebecca A

2018-06-22

In several common study designs, regression modeling is complicated by the presence of censored covariates. Examples of such covariates include maternal age of onset of dementia that may be right censored in an Alzheimer's amyloid imaging study of healthy subjects, metabolite measurements that are subject to limit of detection censoring in a case-control study of cardiovascular disease, and progressive biomarkers whose baseline values are of interest, but are measured post-baseline in longitudinal neuropsychological studies of Alzheimer's disease. We propose threshold regression approaches for linear regression models with a covariate that is subject to random censoring. Threshold regression methods allow for immediate testing of the significance of the effect of a censored covariate. In addition, they provide for unbiased estimation of the regression coefficient of the censored covariate. We derive the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators under mild regularity conditions. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed estimators have good finite-sample performance, and often offer improved efficiency over existing methods. We also derive a principled method for selection of the threshold. We illustrate the approach in application to an Alzheimer's disease study that investigated brain amyloid levels in older individuals, as measured through positron emission tomography scans, as a function of maternal age of dementia onset, with adjustment for other covariates. We have developed an R package, censCov, for implementation of our method, available at CRAN. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Salmonella burden in Lebanon.

PubMed

Malaeb, M; Bizri, A R; Ghosn, N; Berry, A; Musharrafieh, U

2016-06-01

Salmonellosis is a disease that represents a major public health concern in both developing and developed countries. The aim of this article is to evaluate the public health burden of Salmonella illness in Lebanon. The current scope of the Salmonella infection problem was assessed in relation to disease incidence and distribution with respect to age, gender and district. Factors that provide a better understanding of the magnitude of the problem were explored and highlighted. Data reported to the Epidemiologic Surveillance Department at the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health between 2001 and 2013 was reviewed. Information obtained was compared to information reported regionally and globally. The estimated true incidence was derived using multipliers from the CDC and Jordan. A literature review of all published data from Lebanon about Salmonella susceptibility/resistance patterns and its serious clinical complications was conducted. The estimated incidence was 13·34 cases/100 000 individuals, most cases occurred in the 20-39 years age group with no significant gender variation. Poor and less developed districts of Lebanon had the highest number of cases and the peak incidence was in summer. Reflecting on the projected incidence derived from the use of multipliers indicates a major discrepancy between what is reported and what is estimated. We conclude that data about Salmonella infection in Lebanon and many Middle Eastern and developing countries lack crucial information and are not necessarily representative of the true incidence, prevalence and burden of illness.

Formation of South Pole-Aitken Basin as the Result of an Oblique Impact: Implications for Melt Volume and Source of Exposed Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petro, N. E.

2012-01-01

The South Pole-Aitken Basin (SPA) is the largest, deepest, and oldest identified basin on the Moon and contains surfaces that are unique due to their age, composition, and depth of origin in the lunar crust [1-3] (Figure 1). SPA has been a target of interest as an area for robotic sample return in order to determine the age of the basin and the composition and origin of its interior [3-6]. As part of the investigation into the origin of SPA materials there have been several efforts to estimate the likely provenance of regolith material in central SPA [5, 6]. These model estimates suggest that, despite the formation of basins and craters following SPA, the regolith within SPA is dominated by locally derived material. An assumption inherent in these models has been that the locally derived material is primarily SPA impact-melt as opposed to local basement material (e.g. unmelted lower crust). However, the definitive identification of SPA derived impact melt on the basin floor, either by remote sensing [2, 7] or via photogeology [8] is extremely difficult due to the number of subsequent impacts and volcanic activity [3, 4]. In order to identify where SPA produced impact melt may be located, it is important to constrain both how much melt would have been produced in a basin forming impact and the likely source of such melted material. Models of crater and basin formation [9, 10] present clear rationale for estimating the possible volumes and sources of impact melt produced during SPA formation. However, if SPA formed as the result of an oblique impact [11, 12], the volume and depth of origin of melted material could be distinct from similar material in a vertical impact [13].

Central blood pressure in children and adolescents: non-invasive development and testing of novel transfer functions.

PubMed

Cai, T Y; Qasem, A; Ayer, J G; Butlin, M; O'Meagher, S; Melki, C; Marks, G B; Avolio, A; Celermajer, D S; Skilton, M R

2017-12-01

Central blood pressure can be estimated from peripheral pulses in adults using generalised transfer functions (TF). We sought to create and test age-specific non-invasively developed TFs in children, with comparison to a pre-existing adult TF. We studied healthy children from two sites at two time points, 8 and 14 years of age, split by site into development and validation groups. Radial and carotid pressure waveforms were obtained by applanation tonometry. Central systolic pressure was derived from carotid waveforms calibrated to brachial mean and diastolic pressures. Age-specific TFs created in the development groups (n=50) were tested in the validation groups aged 8 (n=137) and 14 years (n=85). At 8 years of age, the age-specific TF estimated 82, 99 and 100% of central systolic pressure values within 5, 10 and 15 mm Hg of their measured values, respectively. This TF overestimated central systolic pressure by 2.2 (s.d. 3.7) mm Hg, compared to being underestimated by 5.6 (s.d. 3.9) mm Hg with the adult TF. At 14 years of age, the age-specific TF estimated 60, 87 and 95% of values within 5, 10 and 15 mm Hg of their measured values, respectively. This TF underestimated central systolic pressure by 0.5 (s.d. 6.7) mm Hg, while the adult TF underestimated it by 6.8 (s.d. 6.0) mm Hg. In conclusion, age-specific TFs more accurately predict central systolic pressure measured at the carotid artery in children than an existing adult TF.

New, national bottom-up estimate for tree-based biological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient in many ecosystems, but is also a chief pollutant from human activity. Quantifying human impacts on the nitrogen cycle and investigating natural ecosystem nitrogen cycling both require an understanding of the magnitude of nitrogen inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). A bottom-up approach to estimating BNF—scaling rates up from measurements to broader scales—is attractive because it is rooted in actual BNF measurements. However, bottom-up approaches have been hindered by scaling difficulties, and a recent top-down approach suggested that the previous bottom-up estimate was much too large. Here, we used a bottom-up approach for tree-based BNF, overcoming scaling difficulties with the systematic, immense (>70,000 N-fixing trees) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. We employed two approaches to estimate species-specific BNF rates: published ecosystem-scale rates (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and published estimates of the percent of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) combined with FIA-derived growth rates. Species-specific rates can vary for a variety of reasons, so for each approach we examined how different assumptions influenced our results. Specifically, we allowed BNF rates to vary with stand age, N-fixer density, and canopy position (since N-fixation is known to require substantial light).Our estimates from this bottom-up technique are several orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates indicating

Quantifying annual internal effective 137Cesium dose utilizing direct body-burden measurement and ecological dose modeling.

PubMed

Jelin, Benjamin A; Sun, Wenjie; Kravets, Alexandra; Naboka, Maryna; Stepanova, Eugenia I; Vdovenko, Vitaliy Y; Karmaus, Wilfried J; Lichosherstov, Alex; Svendsen, Erik R

2016-11-01

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) accident represents one of the most significant civilian releases of 137 Cesium ( 137 Cs, radiocesium) in human history. In the Chernobyl-affected region, radiocesium is considered to be the greatest on-going environmental hazard to human health by radiobiologists and public health scientists. The goal of this study was to characterize dosimetric patterns and predictive factors for whole-body count (WBC)-derived radiocesium internal dose estimations in a CNPP-affected children's cohort, and cross-validate these estimations with a soil-based ecological dose estimation model. WBC data were used to estimate the internal effective dose using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 67 dose conversion coefficient for 137 Cs and MONDAL Version 3.01 software. Geometric mean dose estimates from each model were compared utilizing paired t-tests and intra-class correlation coefficients. Additionally, we developed predictive models for WBC-derived dose estimation in order to determine the appropriateness of EMARC to estimate dose for this population. The two WBC-derived dose predictive models identified 137 Cs soil concentration (P<0.0001) as the strongest predictor of annual internal effective dose from radiocesium validating the use of the soil-based EMARC model. The geometric mean internal effective dose estimate of the EMARC model (0.183 mSv/y) was the highest followed by the ICRP 67 dose estimates (0.165 mSv/y) and the MONDAL model estimates (0.149 mSv/y). All three models yielded significantly different geometric mean dose (P<0.05) estimates for this cohort when stratified by sex, age at time of exam and season of exam, except for the mean MONDAL and EMARC estimates for 15- and 16-year olds and mean ICRP and MONDAL estimates for children examined in Winter. Further prospective and retrospective radio-epidemiological studies utilizing refined WBC measurements and ecological model dose estimations, in conjunction with findings from animal toxicological studies, should help elucidate possible deterministic radiogenic health effects associated with chronic low-dose internal exposure to 137 Cs.

Selection of comparison crash types for quasi-induced exposure risk estimation.

PubMed

Keall, Michael; Newstead, Stuart

2009-03-01

The objective of this study was to find a comparison crash type that best represented exposure on the road and to identify situations where the induced exposure risk estimates were likely to be biased. Counts of crash involvements were compared with distance driven estimates derived from a register of licensed motor vehicles to identify the most appropriate comparison crash type for induced exposure estimation, which is the crash type whose counts are best correlated with vehicle distance driven. The best sets of comparison crashes for disaggregations by driver age and gender and vehicle type were found to be multi-vehicle crashes in which the vehicle was damaged in the rear or multi-vehicle crashes in which the driver was adjudged to be not at fault. Likely bias of induced exposure risk estimates was identified, even for these best sets of comparison crashes, according to vehicle size (with large vehicles underrepresented) and owner age and gender (with young owners and female owners overrepresented). This research identified some important features of crash occurrence useful for making choices of comparison crash types when controlling for exposure. None of the crash types considered as comparison crashes performed perfectly. Even the crash types that seemed to best reflect exposure on the road still appeared to over- or underestimate distance driven according to owner age group, gender, and vehicle size.

CCD uvbyβ photometry of faint stars. III. Metallicities and ages of F-stars in the Galactic disk.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonch-Sorensen, H.

1995-06-01

Stars as faint as V=~22^m^ have been observed in six selected directions of the Galaxy, the limiting magnitude of the sample of stars having the full uvbyβ information is approximately 18.5mag . Intrinsic colours and distances have been derived for 435 F-stars by Jonch-Sorensen (1994b) (Paper II) and in this paper metallicities and effective temperatures are estimated for these stars. Asample of these (318 stars) are found with δ m_0_ and δ c_0_ indices that permit ages to be estimated using theoretical isochrones. The majority of the stars have galactocentric distances, R, from approximately 2kpc to 12kpc and heights above the plane, z, below 2kpc. For the total sample no significant radial variation of metallicity is found for R from 5 to 11kpc, independently of z. A steepening of the radial gradient is indicated for R>9kpc, most prominent for the oldest age groups. The derived vertical metallicity gradient is =~-0.2dex for 3001kpc, or Stroemgren's definition of ipII or the age-z diagram a lower age limit of 5-6Gyr seems inevitable. Such a low age has been indicated before, but it is in conflict with most models of the formation of the disks of the Galaxy. Comparing the (b-y)-V diagrams for the different fields indicates the presence of a cut-off of the (thick) disk occurring at R>15. The results obtained in the present paper support a formation scenario in which the disk forms from `inside out' and a thick disk formation that probably is a combination of `top down' and `bottom up'.

Uranium series dating of human skeletal remains from the Del Mar and Sunnyvale sites, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bischoff, J.L.; Rosenbauer, R.J.

1981-01-01

Uranium series analyses of human bone samples from the Del Mar and Sunnyvale sites indicate ages of 11,000 and 8,300 years, respectively. The dates are supported by internal concordancy between thorium-230 and protactinium-231 decay systems. These ages are significantly younger than the estimates of 48,000 and 70,000 years based on amino acid racemization, and indicate that the individuals could derive from the population waves that came across the Bering Strait during the last sea-level low. Copyright ?? 1981 AAAS.

Labor force participation among persons with musculoskeletal conditions, 1970-1987. National estimates derived from a series of cross-sections.

PubMed

Yelin, E H; Katz, P P

1991-11-01

In the present study, we estimated the labor force participation rate among persons with musculoskeletal conditions in 1987, compared this rate with that experienced by persons with other chronic conditions or with none, and estimated the change in labor force participation rates among persons with musculoskeletal conditions for the period 1970-1987. Rates were estimated from 18 years of National Health Interview Survey data, and the sampling weights from this survey were used to obtain population estimates. To ensure statistically stable estimates, we averaged the rates over 6 years of data. In 1987, 42.9% of all working-age persons with musculoskeletal conditions were out of the labor force, this study's definition of work disability. Overall labor force participation rates among persons with musculoskeletal conditions declined from 71% to 56% between 1976-1981 and 1982-1987, 22% in relative terms. Much of this decline was concentrated among men, especially men 55-64 years of age. However, women 55-64 years of age with musculoskeletal conditions also experienced declining labor force participation rates. Labor force participation patterns among persons with musculoskeletal conditions fit more general labor market trends, with gains among younger women more than offset by declines among older men and women. However, these trends appear to be more accentuated among persons with musculoskeletal conditions, suggesting that enforcement of the employment provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 place special emphasis on labor force participation among such persons.

Effects of Temperature and Adult Diet on Development of Hypertrophied Fat Body in Prediapausing Boll Weevil (Coleoptera Curculionidae)

Treesearch

Terence L. Wagner; Eric J. Villavaso

1999-01-01

This study examines the effects of temperature and adult diet on the development of hypertrophied fat bodies in prediapausing adult boll weevils, Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman. Simulation models derived from this work are used to estimate the minimal ages at which male and female boll weevils exhibit diapause morphology, based on conditions...

The Burden of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in the United States

PubMed Central

Strollo, Sara E.; Adjemian, Jennifer; Adjemian, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: State-specific case numbers and costs are critical for quantifying the burden of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease in the United States. Objectives: To estimate and project national and state annual cases of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease and associated direct medical costs. Methods: Available direct cost estimates of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease medical encounters were applied to nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence estimates derived from Medicare beneficiary data (2003–2007). Prevalence was adjusted for International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, undercoding and the inclusion of persons younger than 65 years of age. U.S. Census Bureau data identified 2010 and 2014 population counts and 2012 primary insurance-type distribution. Medical costs were reported in constant 2014 dollars. Projected 2014 estimates were adjusted for population growth and assumed a previously published 8% annual growth rate of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence. Measurements and Main Results: In 2010, we estimated 86,244 national cases, totaling to $815 million, of which 87% were inpatient related ($709 million) and 13% were outpatient related ($106 million). Annual state estimates varied from 48 to 12,544 cases ($503,000–$111 million), with a median of 1,208 cases ($11.5 million). Oceanic coastline states and Gulf States comprised 70% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease cases but 60% of the U.S. population. Medical encounters among individuals aged 65 years and older ($562 million) were twofold higher than those younger than 65 years of age ($253 million). Of all costs incurred, medications comprised 76% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease expenditures. Projected 2014 estimates resulted in 181,037 national annual cases ($1.7 billion). Conclusions: For a relatively rare disease, the financial cost of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is substantial, particularly among older adults. Better data on disease dynamics and more recent prevalence estimates will generate more robust estimates. PMID:26214350

Open clusters in the Kepler field. II. NGC 6866

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janes, Kenneth; Hoq, Sadia; Barnes, Sydney A.

We have developed a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit theoretical isochrones to the observed cluster color-magnitude diagrams of NGC 6866, an open cluster in the Kepler spacecraft field of view. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm permits exploration of the entire parameter space of a set of isochrones to find both the best solution and the statistical uncertainties. For clusters in the age range of NGC 6866 with few, if any, red giant members, a purely photometric determination of the cluster properties is not well-constrained. Nevertheless, based on our UBVRI photometry alone, we have derived the distance, reddening, age, and metallicitymore » of the cluster and established estimates for the binary nature and membership probability of individual stars. We derive the following values for the cluster properties: (m – M) {sub V} = 10.98 ± 0.24, E(B – V) = 0.16 ± 0.04 (so the distance = 1250 pc), age =705 ± 170 Myr, and Z = 0.014 ± 0.005.« less

Comparison of particle-tracking and lumped-parameter age-distribution models for evaluating vulnerability of production wells to contamination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberts, S.M.; Böhlke, J.K.; Kauffman, L.J.; Jurgens, B.C.

2012-01-01

Environmental age tracers have been used in various ways to help assess vulnerability of drinking-water production wells to contamination. The most appropriate approach will depend on the information that is available and that which is desired. To understand how the well will respond to changing nonpoint-source contaminant inputs at the water table, some representation of the distribution of groundwater ages in the well is needed. Such information for production wells is sparse and difficult to obtain, especially in areas lacking detailed field studies. In this study, age distributions derived from detailed groundwater-flow models with advective particle tracking were compared with those generated from lumped-parameter models to examine conditions in which estimates from simpler, less resource-intensive lumped-parameter models could be used in place of estimates from particle-tracking models. In each of four contrasting hydrogeologic settings in the USA, particle-tracking and lumped-parameter models yielded roughly similar age distributions and largely indistinguishable contaminant trends when based on similar conceptual models and calibrated to similar tracer data. Although model calibrations and predictions were variably affected by tracer limitations and conceptual ambiguities, results illustrated the importance of full age distributions, rather than apparent tracer ages or model mean ages, for trend analysis and forecasting.

Estimated Levels of Gluten Incidentally Present in a Canadian Gluten-Free Diet

PubMed Central

Vieille, Sébastien La; Dubois, Sheila; Hayward, Stephen; Koerner, Terence B.

2014-01-01

Avoiding exposure to gluten is currently the only effective treatment for celiac disease. However, the evidence suggests that for most affected individuals, exposure to less than 10 mg/day is unlikely to cause histological changes to the intestinal mucosa. The daily diet of people with celiac disease does not rely solely on gluten-free pre-packaged foods, but also on naturally gluten-free grains (e.g., rice, buckwheat, ...) and foods with grain-derived ingredients (i.e., flour and starches) used for cooking and baking at home. The objective of this study was to estimate the level of incidental gluten potentially present in gluten-free diets from a Canadian perspective. We have conducted gluten exposure estimations from grain-containing foods and foods with grain-derived ingredients, taking into consideration the various rates of food consumption by different sex and age groups. These estimates have concluded that if gluten was present at levels not exceeding 20 ppm, exposure to gluten would remain below 10 mg per day for all age groups studied. However, in reality the level of gluten found in naturally gluten-free ingredients is not static and there may be some concerns related to the flours made from naturally gluten-free cereal grains. It was found that those containing a higher level of fiber and that are frequently used to prepare daily foods by individuals with celiac disease could be a concern. For this category of products, only the flours and starches labelled “gluten-free” should be used for home-made preparations. PMID:24566442

Estimated levels of gluten incidentally present in a Canadian gluten-free diet.

PubMed

La Vieille, Sébastien; Dubois, Sheila; Hayward, Stephen; Koerner, Terence B

2014-02-21

Avoiding exposure to gluten is currently the only effective treatment for celiac disease. However, the evidence suggests that for most affected individuals, exposure to less than 10 mg/day is unlikely to cause histological changes to the intestinal mucosa. The daily diet of people with celiac disease does not rely solely on gluten-free pre-packaged foods, but also on naturally gluten-free grains (e.g., rice, buckwheat, ...) and foods with grain-derived ingredients (i.e., flour and starches) used for cooking and baking at home. The objective of this study was to estimate the level of incidental gluten potentially present in gluten-free diets from a Canadian perspective. We have conducted gluten exposure estimations from grain-containing foods and foods with grain-derived ingredients, taking into consideration the various rates of food consumption by different sex and age groups. These estimates have concluded that if gluten was present at levels not exceeding 20 ppm, exposure to gluten would remain below 10 mg per day for all age groups studied. However, in reality the level of gluten found in naturally gluten-free ingredients is not static and there may be some concerns related to the flours made from naturally gluten-free cereal grains. It was found that those containing a higher level of fiber and that are frequently used to prepare daily foods by individuals with celiac disease could be a concern. For this category of products, only the flours and starches labelled "gluten-free" should be used for home-made preparations.

Size Estimation of Groups at High Risk of HIV/AIDS using Network Scale Up in Kerman, Iran

PubMed Central

Shokoohi, Mostafa; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali-Akbar

2012-01-01

Objective: To estimate the size of groups at high risk of HIV, Network Scale UP (NSU), an indirect method, was used. Methods: 500 Kermanian male aged 18 to 45 were recruited. 8 groups at high risk of HIV were defined: Users of opium, unknown drug, ecstasy, and alcohol; intra-venous drug users (IDUs; males who have extra-marital sex with females (MSF); male who have sex with female sex workers (MFSW); and male who have sex with other male (MSMs). We asked respondents whether they know anybody (probability method), and if yes, how many people (frequency method) in our target groups. Results: Estimates derived in the probability method were higher than the frequency method. Based on the probability method, 13.7% (95% CI: 11.3%, 16.1%) of males used alcohol at least once in last year; the corresponding percent for opium was 13.1% (95% CI: 10.9%, 15.3%). In addition, 12% has extra-marital sex in last year (95% CI: 10%, 14%); while 7% (95% CI: 5.8%, 8.2%) had sex with a female sex worker. Conclusion: We showed that drug use is more common among young and mid-age males; although their sexual contacts were also considerable. These percentages show that special preventive program is needed to control an HIV transmission. Estimates derived from probability method were comparable with data from external sources. The underestimation in frequency method might be due to the fact that respondents are not aware of sensitive characteristics of all those in their network and underreporting is likely to occur. PMID:22891148

Direct costs of unintended pregnancy in the Russian federation.

PubMed

Lowin, Julia; Jarrett, James; Dimova, Maria; Ignateva, Victoria; Omelyanovsky, Vitaly; Filonenko, Anna

2015-02-01

In 2010, almost every third pregnancy in Russia was terminated, indicating that unintended pregnancy (UP) is a public health problem. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct cost of UP to the healthcare system in Russia and the proportion attributable to using unreliable contraception. A cost model was built, adopting a generic payer perspective with a 1-year time horizon. The analysis cohort was defined as women of childbearing age between 18 and 44 years actively seeking to avoid pregnancy. Model inputs were derived from published sources or government statistics with a 2012 cost base. To estimate the number of UPs attributable to unreliable methods, the model combined annual typical use failure rates and age-adjusted utilization for each contraceptive method. Published survey data was used to adjust the total cost of UP by the number of UPs that were mistimed rather than unwanted. Scenario analysis considered alternate allocation of methods to the reliable and unreliable categories and estimate of the burden of UP in the target sub-group of women aged 18-29 years. The model estimated 1,646,799 UPs in the analysis cohort (women aged 18-44 years) with an associated annual cost of US$783 million. The model estimated 1,019,371 UPs in the target group of 18-29 years, of which 88 % were attributable to unreliable contraception. The total cost of UPs in the target group was estimated at approximately US$498 million, of which US$441 million could be considered attributable to the use of unreliable methods. The cost of UP attributable to use of unreliable contraception in Russia is substantial. Policies encouraging use of reliable contraceptive methods could reduce the burden of UP.

Using naturally occurring radionuclides to determine drinking water age in a community water system

DOE PAGES

Waples, James T.; Bordewyk, Jason K.; Knesting, Kristina M.; ...

2015-07-22

Drinking water quality in a community water system is closely linked to the age of water from initial treatment to time of delivery. However, water age is difficult to measure with conventional chemical tracers; particularly in stagnant water, where the relationship between disinfectant decay, microbial growth, and water age is poorly understood. Using radionuclides that were naturally present in source water, we found that measured activity ratios of 90Y/ 90Sr and 234Th/ 238U in discrete drinking water samples of known age accurately estimated water age up to 9 days old (σ est: ± 3.8 h, P < 0.0001, r 2more » = 0.998, n = 11) and 25 days old (σ est: ± 13.3 h, P < 0.0001, r 2 = 0.996, n = 12), respectively. Moreover, 90Y-derived water ages in a community water system (6.8 × 10 4 m 3 d –1 capacity) were generally consistent with water ages derived from an extended period simulation model. Radionuclides differ from conventional chemical tracers in that they are ubiquitous in distribution mains and connected premise plumbing. The ability to measure both water age and an analyte (e.g., chemical or microbe) in any water sample at any time allows for new insight into factors that control drinking water quality.« less

Using naturally occurring radionuclides to determine drinking water age in a community water system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waples, James T.; Bordewyk, Jason K.; Knesting, Kristina M.

Drinking water quality in a community water system is closely linked to the age of water from initial treatment to time of delivery. However, water age is difficult to measure with conventional chemical tracers; particularly in stagnant water, where the relationship between disinfectant decay, microbial growth, and water age is poorly understood. Using radionuclides that were naturally present in source water, we found that measured activity ratios of 90Y/ 90Sr and 234Th/ 238U in discrete drinking water samples of known age accurately estimated water age up to 9 days old (σ est: ± 3.8 h, P < 0.0001, r 2more » = 0.998, n = 11) and 25 days old (σ est: ± 13.3 h, P < 0.0001, r 2 = 0.996, n = 12), respectively. Moreover, 90Y-derived water ages in a community water system (6.8 × 10 4 m 3 d –1 capacity) were generally consistent with water ages derived from an extended period simulation model. Radionuclides differ from conventional chemical tracers in that they are ubiquitous in distribution mains and connected premise plumbing. The ability to measure both water age and an analyte (e.g., chemical or microbe) in any water sample at any time allows for new insight into factors that control drinking water quality.« less

A comparison of measured height and demi-span equivalent height in the assessment of body mass index among people aged 65 years and over in England.

PubMed

Hirani, Vasant; Mindell, Jennifer

2008-05-01

to examine differences between measured height and demi-span equivalent height (DEH) among people aged >or=65 and investigate the impact on body mass index (BMI) of using DEH. nationally representative cross-sectional sample of adults living in England. 3,346 non-institutionalised adults aged >or=65, taking part in the Health Survey for England (HSE) 2001. height, weight and demi-span measurements were taken according to standardised HSE protocols. DEH was calculated using Bassey's equation. the height measurement was lower than the DEH from age group 70-74 years onwards in men and in each age group in women. No significant differences in mean DEH and measured height were found for men (-0.46) or women (-2.64). BMI derived from measured height did not differ significantly from BMI derived from DEH. The prevalence of underweight was lower when using measured height than when using DEH in women aged >or=65, particularly in those aged 80 years and over. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was higher using measured height than DEH in women aged >or=65. we confirmed in a large nationally representative sample that demi-span measurement may be a useful estimate of stature in people (particularly women) aged >or=65 for BMI calculations.

Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poussart, P. M.; Myneni, S. C. B.; Lanzirotti, A.

2006-09-01

Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years [Chambers et al., 1998]. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings (Whitmore, 1990). Alternative methods exist (dendrometry (DaSilva et al., 2002), radio- and stable isotopes (Evans and Schrag, 2004; Poussart et al., 2004; Poussart and Schrag, 2005), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within <=2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications

PubMed Central

Alegana, V. A.; Atkinson, P. M.; Pezzulo, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Weiss, D.; Bird, T.; Erbach-Schoenberg, E.; Tatem, A. J.

2015-01-01

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings. PMID:25788540

Water age and stream solute dynamics at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (US)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, Gianluca; Benettin, Paolo; McGuire, Kevin; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-04-01

The contribution discusses experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (New Hampshire, USA) to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is used to model both conservative and weathering-derived solutes. Based on the available information about the hydrology of the site, an integrated transport model was developed and used to estimate the relevant hydrochemical fluxes. The model was designed to reproduce the deuterium content of streamflow and allowed for the estimate of catchment water storage and dynamic travel time distributions (TTDs). Within this framework, dissolved silicon and sodium concentration in streamflow were simulated by implementing first-order chemical kinetics based explicitly on dynamic TTD, thus upscaling local geochemical processes to catchment scale. Our results highlight the key role of water stored within the subsoil glacial material in both the short-term and long-term solute circulation at Hubbard Brook. The analysis of the results provided by the calibrated model allowed a robust estimate of the emerging concentration-discharge relationship, streamflow age distributions (including the fraction of event water) and storage size, and their evolution in time due to hydrologic variability.

High risk of tuberculous infection in North Sulawesi Province of Indonesia.

PubMed

Bachtiar, A; Miko, T Y; Machmud, R; Mehta, F; Chadha, V K; Yudarini, P; Loprang, F; Fahmi, S; Jitendra, R

2009-12-01

Of all the provinces in Indonesia, the highest tuberculosis (TB) case notification rates are reported from North Sulawesi Province. To estimate the annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) among schoolchildren in the 6-9 year age group. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 99 schools selected by a two-stage sampling process. Children attending grades 1-4 in the selected schools were administered intradermally with 2 tuberculin units (TUs) of purified protein derivative RT23 with Tween 80, and the maximum transverse diameter of induration was measured about 72 h later. A total of 6557 children in the 6-9 year age group were satisfactorily test-read, irrespective of their bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination status. Based on the frequency distribution of reaction sizes obtained among satisfactorily test-read children (without and with BCG scar), the estimated ARTI rates when estimated by different methods (anti-mode, mirror-image and mixture model) varied between 1.9% and 2.5%. BCG-induced tuberculin sensitivity was not found to influence the ARTI estimates, as the differences in estimates between children without and with BCG scar were not statistically significant. TB control efforts should be further intensified to reduce the risk of tuberculous infection.

Methane hydrate-bearing seeps as a source of aged dissolved organic carbon to the oceans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pohlman, John; Waite, William F.; Bauer, James E.; Osburn, Christopher L.; Chapman, N. Ross

2011-01-01

Marine sediments contain about 500–10,000 Gt of methane carbon1, 2, 3, primarily in gas hydrate. This reservoir is comparable in size to the amount of organic carbon in land biota, terrestrial soils, the atmosphere and sea water combined1, 4, but it releases relatively little methane to the ocean and atmosphere5. Sedimentary microbes convert most of the dissolved methane to carbon dioxide6, 7. Here we show that a significant additional product associated with microbial methane consumption is methane-derived dissolved organic carbon. We use Δ14C and δ13C measurements and isotopic mass-balance calculations to evaluate the contribution of methane-derived carbon to seawater dissolved organic carbon overlying gas hydrate-bearing seeps in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We show that carbon derived from fossil methane accounts for up to 28% of the dissolved organic carbon. This methane-derived material is much older, and more depleted in 13C, than background dissolved organic carbon. We suggest that fossil methane-derived carbon may contribute significantly to the estimated 4,000–6,000 year age of dissolved organic carbon in the deep ocean8, and provide reduced organic matter and energy to deep-ocean microbial communities.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to diabetes in South Africa in 2000.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Debbie; Norman, Rosana; Pieterse, Desiréé; Levitt, Naomi S

2007-08-01

To estimate the burden of disease attributable to diabetes by sex and age group in South Africa in 2000. The framework adopted for the most recent World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies used to derive the prevalence of diabetes by population group were weighted proportionately for a national estimate. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. South Africa. Adults 30 years and older. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and renal failure. Of South Africans aged >or= 30 years, 5.5% had diabetes which increased with age. Overall, about 14% of IHD, 10% of stroke, 12% of hypertensive disease and 12% of renal disease burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to diabetes. Diabetes was estimated to have caused 22,412 (95% uncertainty interval 20,755 - 24,872) or 4.3% (95% uncertainty interval 4.0 - 4.8%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most of these occurred in middle or old age, the loss of healthy life years comprises a smaller proportion of the total 258,028 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 236,856 - 290,849) in South Africa in 2000, accounting for 1.6% (95% uncertainty interval 1.5 - 1.8%) of the total burden. Diabetes is an important direct and indirect cause of burden in South Africa. Primary prevention of the disease through multi-level interventions and improved management at primary health care level are needed.

A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City.

PubMed

Tan, Sarah; Makela, Susanna; Heller, Daliah; Konty, Kevin; Balter, Sharon; Zheng, Tian; Stark, James H

2018-06-01

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2010-01-01

Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

Distribution of volumes of individual glomeruli in kidneys at autopsy: association with age, nephron number, birth weight and body mass index.

PubMed

Hoy, W E; Hughson, M D; Zimanyi, M; Samuel, T; Douglas-Denton, R; Holden, L; Mott, S; Bertram, J F

2010-11-01

Glomerular hypertrophy occurs in a number of normal and pathological states. Glomerular volume in kidneys at autopsy is usually indirectly derived from estimates of total glomerular mass and nephron number, and provides only a single value per kidney, with no indication of the range of volumes of glomeruli within the kidney of any given subject. We review findings of the distribution of volumes of different glomeruli within subjects without kidney disease, and their correlations with age, nephron number, birth weight and body mass index (BMI). The study describes findings from autopsy kidneys of selected adult white males from the Southeast USA who had unexpected deaths, and who did not have renal scarring or renal disease. Total glomerular (nephron) number and total glomerular volume were estimated using the disector/fractionator combination, and mean glomerular volume (Vglom) was derived. The volumes of 30 individual glomeruli (IGV) in each subject were determined using the disector/Cavalieri method. IGV values were compared by categories of age, nephron number, birth weight and BMI. There was substantial variation in IGV within subjects. Older age, lower nephron number, lower birth weight and gross obesity were associated with higher mean IGV and with greater IGV heterogeneity. High Vglom and high IGVs were associated with more glomerulosclerosis. However, amongst the generally modest numbers of sclerosed glomeruli, the pattern was uniformly of ischemic collapse of the glomerular tuft. There was no detectable focal segmental glomerular tuft injury. In this series of people without overt renal disease, greater age, nephron deficit, lower birth weight and obesity were marked by glomerular enlargement and greater glomerular volume heterogeneity within individuals.

Development of food photographs for use with children aged 18 months to 16 years: Comparison against weighed food diaries – The Young Person’s Food Atlas (UK)

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Adrian; Barton, Karen L.; Stamp, Elaine; Matthews, John N. S.; Adamson, Ashley J.

2017-01-01

Traditional dietary assessment methods, used in the UK, such as weighed food diaries impose a large participant burden, often resulting in difficulty recruiting representative samples and underreporting of energy intakes. One approach to reducing the burden placed on the participant is to use portion size assessment tools to obtain an estimate of the amount of food consumed, removing the need to weigh all foods. An age range specific food atlas was developed for use in assessing children’s dietary intakes. The foods selected and portion sizes depicted were derived from intakes recorded during the UK National Diet and Nutrition Surveys of children aged 1.5 to 16 years. Estimates of food portion sizes using the food atlas were compared against 4-day weighed intakes along with in-school / nursery observations, by the research team. Interviews were conducted with parents the day after completion of the diary, and for children aged 4 to 16 years, also with the child. Mean estimates of portion size consumed were within 7% of the weight of food recorded in the weighed food diary. The limits of agreement were wide indicating high variability of estimates at the individual level but the precision increased with increasing age. For children 11 years and over, agreement with weighed food diaries, was as good as that of their parents in terms of total weight of food consumed and of intake of energy and key nutrients. The age appropriate food photographs offer an alternative to weighed intakes for dietary assessment with children. PMID:28199319

The effect of rate denominator source on US fatal occupational injury rate estimates.

PubMed

Richardson, David; Loomis, Dana; Bailer, A John; Bena, James

2004-09-01

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is often used as a source of denominator information for analyses of US fatal occupational injury rates. However, given the relatively small sample size of the CPS, analyses that examine the cross-classification of occupation or industry with demographic or geographic characteristics will often produce highly imprecise rate estimates. The Decennial Census of Population provides an alternative source for rate denominator information. We investigate the comparability of fatal injury rates derived using these two sources of rate denominator information. Information on fatal occupational injuries that occurred between January 1, 1983 and December 31, 1994 was obtained from the National Traumatic Occupational Fatality surveillance system. Annual estimates of employment by occupation, industry, age, and sex were derived from the CPS, and by linear interpolation and extrapolation from the 1980 and 1990 Census of Population. Fatal injury rates derived using these denominator data were compared. Fatal injury rates calculated using Census-based denominator data were within 10% of rates calculated using CPS data for all major occupation groups except farming/forestry/fishing, for which the fatal injury rate calculated using Census-based denominator data was 24.69/100,000 worker-years and the rate calculated using CPS data was 19.97/100,000 worker-years. The choice of denominator data source had minimal influence on estimates of trends over calendar time in the fatal injury rates for most major occupation and industry groups. The Census offers a reasonable source for deriving fatal injury rate denominator data in situations where the CPS does not provide sufficiently precise data, although the Census may underestimate the population-at-risk in some industries as a consequence of seasonal variation in employment.

OPEN CLUSTERS AS PROBES OF THE GALACTIC MAGNETIC FIELD. I. CLUSTER PROPERTIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoq, Sadia; Clemens, D. P., E-mail: shoq@bu.edu, E-mail: clemens@bu.edu

2015-10-15

Stars in open clusters are powerful probes of the intervening Galactic magnetic field via background starlight polarimetry because they provide constraints on the magnetic field distances. We use 2MASS photometric data for a sample of 31 clusters in the outer Galaxy for which near-IR polarimetric data were obtained to determine the cluster distances, ages, and reddenings via fitting theoretical isochrones to cluster color–magnitude diagrams. The fitting approach uses an objective χ{sup 2} minimization technique to derive the cluster properties and their uncertainties. We found the ages, distances, and reddenings for 24 of the clusters, and the distances and reddenings formore » 6 additional clusters that were either sparse or faint in the near-IR. The derived ranges of log(age), distance, and E(B−V) were 7.25–9.63, ∼670–6160 pc, and 0.02–1.46 mag, respectively. The distance uncertainties ranged from ∼8% to 20%. The derived parameters were compared to previous studies, and most cluster parameters agree within our uncertainties. To test the accuracy of the fitting technique, synthetic clusters with 50, 100, or 200 cluster members and a wide range of ages were fit. These tests recovered the input parameters within their uncertainties for more than 90% of the individual synthetic cluster parameters. These results indicate that the fitting technique likely provides reliable estimates of cluster properties. The distances derived will be used in an upcoming study of the Galactic magnetic field in the outer Galaxy.« less

Updated Absolute Age Estimates for the Tolstoj and Caloris Basins, Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernst, C. M.; Denevi, B. W.; Ostrach, L. R.

2016-12-01

Time-stratigraphic systems are developed to provide a framework to derive the relative ages of terrains across a given planet, estimate their absolute ages, and aid cross-planet comparisons. Mercury's time-stratigraphic system was modeled after that of the Moon, with five systems defined on the basis of geologic mapping using Mariner 10 images. From oldest to youngest, Mercury's time-stratigraphic system contains the pre-Tolstojan, Tolstojan, Calorian, Mansurian, and Kuiperian systems. The formations of the Tolstoj and Caloris basins mark the start of the Tolstojan and Calorian systems, respectively. The Mansurian and Kuiperian systems are defined by the type craters for which they are named. The completion of MESSENGER's global image dataset marks an appropriate time to re-assess the time-stratigraphic system of the innermost planet. Recent work suggests the Mansurian and Kuiperian systems may have begun as recently as 1.7 Ga and 280 Ma, respectively (Banks et al., 2016). We used MESSENGER data to re-evaluate the relative and absolute ages of the Tolstoj and Caloris basins in to complete the reassessment of Mercury's time-stratigraphic system. We redefine basin rim units for Tolstoj and Caloris determine the crater size-frequency distribution for craters larger than 10 km in diameter. Two models for crater production are used to derive absolute ages from the crater counts: Marchi et al., 2009 (M) using a main belt asteroid-like impactor size-frequency distribution, hard rock crater scaling relations, target strength of 2e7 dyne/cm2, and target and projectile densities of 3.4 g/cm3 and 2.6 g/cm3; and Le Feuvre and Wieczorek 2011 (L&W) using non-porous scaling relations. We find N(20) values (the number of craters ≥ 20 km in diameter per million square km) for the Caloris rim of 37 ± 7 and for the Tolstoj rim of 93 ± 15. We derived model ages of 3.9 Ga (M) and 3.7 Ga (L&W) for Tolstoj and 3.7 Ga (M) and 3.1 Ga (L&W) for Caloris. Analysis to refine the ages using new techniques (e.g., Michael et al., 2016) and explore a wider set of model parameters is ongoing.

Delayed deglaciation or extreme Arctic conditions 21-16 cal. kyr at southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet margin?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peteet, D. M.; Beh, M.; Orr, C.

The conventionally accepted ages of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) are 26–21 cal. kyr (derived from bulk-sediment radiocarbon ages) and 28–23 cal. kyr (varve estimates). By utilizing accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of earliest macrofossils in 13 lake/bog inorganic clays, we find that vegetation first appeared on the landscape at 16–15 cal. kyr, suggesting ice had not retreated until that time. The gap between previous age estimates and ours is significant and has large implications for our understanding of ocean-atmosphere linkages. Older ages imply extreme Arctic conditions for 9–5 cal kyr;more » a landscape with no ice, yet no deposition in lakes. Also, our new AMS chronology of LIS retreat is consistent with marine evidence of deglaciation from the N. Atlantic, showing significant freshwater input and sea level rise only after 19 cal kyr with a cold meltwater lid, perhaps delaying ice melt.« less

Blood-Based Oxidative Stress Markers and Cognitive Performance in Early Old Age: The HAPIEE Study

PubMed Central

Horvat, Pia; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Schöttker, Ben; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Kozela, Magdalena; Jansen, Eugene; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Bobak, Martin

2016-01-01

Background/Aims Oxidative stress is involved in Alzheimer disease pathology, but its impact on cognitive function in community-dwelling older adults remains unknown. We estimated associations between serum oxidative stress markers and cognitive function in early old age. Methods Subjects aged 45-69 years recruited in urban centers in Central and Eastern Europe had memory, verbal fluency, and processing speed assessed at baseline (2002-2005) and 3 years later. Derivatives of reactive oxygen metabolites (d-ROMs), biological antioxidant potential (BAP), and total thiol levels (TTLs) were measured at baseline in a subsample. Linear regression was used to estimate associations of biomarkers with cognitive test scores cross-sectionally (n = 4,304) and prospectively (n = 2,882). Results Increased d-ROM levels were inversely associated with global cognition and verbal fluency cross-sectionally and in prospective analysis; observed effects corresponded to 3-4 years' higher age. TTL was inconsistently associated with memory. BAP was not related to cognitive function. Conclusion This study found modest evidence for a relationship between serum d-ROMs and cognitive function in a population sample of older adults. PMID:27802435

Delayed deglaciation or extreme Arctic conditions 21-16 cal. kyr at southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet margin?

DOE PAGES

Peteet, D. M.; Beh, M.; Orr, C.; ...

2012-06-15

The conventionally accepted ages of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) are 26–21 cal. kyr (derived from bulk-sediment radiocarbon ages) and 28–23 cal. kyr (varve estimates). By utilizing accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of earliest macrofossils in 13 lake/bog inorganic clays, we find that vegetation first appeared on the landscape at 16–15 cal. kyr, suggesting ice had not retreated until that time. The gap between previous age estimates and ours is significant and has large implications for our understanding of ocean-atmosphere linkages. Older ages imply extreme Arctic conditions for 9–5 cal kyr;more » a landscape with no ice, yet no deposition in lakes. Also, our new AMS chronology of LIS retreat is consistent with marine evidence of deglaciation from the N. Atlantic, showing significant freshwater input and sea level rise only after 19 cal kyr with a cold meltwater lid, perhaps delaying ice melt.« less

Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

2016-02-01

Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Challenges of Estimating the Annual Caseload of Severe Acute Malnutrition: The Case of Niger

PubMed Central

Hallarou, Mahaman; Gérard, Jean-Christophe; Donnen, Philippe; Macq, Jean

2016-01-01

Introduction Reliable prospective estimates of annual severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads for treatment are needed for policy decisions and planning of quality services in the context of competing public health priorities and limited resources. This paper compares the reliability of SAM caseloads of children 6–59 months of age in Niger estimated from prevalence at the start of the year and counted from incidence at the end of the year. Methods Secondary data from two health districts for 2012 and the country overall for 2013 were used to calculate annual caseload of SAM. Prevalence and coverage were extracted from survey reports, and incidence from weekly surveillance systems. Results The prospective caseload estimate derived from prevalence and duration of illness underestimated the true burden. Similar incidence was derived from two weekly surveillance systems, but differed from that obtained from the monthly system. Incidence conversion factors were two to five times higher than recommended. Discussion Obtaining reliable prospective caseloads was challenging because prevalence is unsuitable for estimating incidence of SAM. Different SAM indicators identified different SAM populations, and duration of illness, expected contact coverage and population figures were inaccurate. The quality of primary data measurement, recording and reporting affected incidence numbers from surveillance. Coverage estimated in population surveys was rarely available, and coverage obtained by comparing admissions with prospective caseload estimates was unrealistic or impractical. Conclusions Caseload estimates derived from prevalence are unreliable and should be used with caution. Policy and service decisions that depend on these numbers may weaken performance of service delivery. Niger may improve SAM surveillance by simplifying and improving primary data collection and methods using innovative information technologies for single data entry at the first contact with the health system. Lessons may be relevant for countries with a high burden of SAM, including for targeted emergency responses. PMID:27606677

Patient- and cohort-specific dose and risk estimation for abdominopelvic CT: a study based on 100 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Samei, Ehsan

2012-03-01

The purpose of this work was twofold: (a) to estimate patient- and cohort-specific radiation dose and cancer risk index for abdominopelvic computer tomography (CT) scans; (b) to evaluate the effects of patient anatomical characteristics (size, age, and gender) and CT scanner model on dose and risk conversion coefficients. The study included 100 patient models (42 pediatric models, 58 adult models) and multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare). A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which DLP-normalized-effective dose (k factor) and DLP-normalized-risk index values (q factor) were derived. The k factor showed exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For a given gender, q factor showed exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The discrepancies in k and q factors across scanners were on average 8% and 15%, respectively. This study demonstrates the feasibility of estimating patient-specific organ dose and cohort-specific effective dose and risk index in abdominopelvic CT requiring only the knowledge of patient size, gender, and age.

Breast cancer risk from different mammography screening practices.

PubMed

Bijwaard, Harmen; Brenner, Alina; Dekkers, Fieke; van Dillen, Teun; Land, Charles E; Boice, John D

2010-09-01

Mammography screening is an accepted procedure for early detection of breast tumors among asymptomatic women. Since this procedure involves the use of X rays, it is itself potentially carcinogenic. Although there is general consensus about the benefit of screening for older women, screening practices differ between countries. In this paper radiation risks for these different practices are estimated using a new approach. We model breast cancer induction by ionizing radiation in a cohort of patients exposed to frequent X-ray examinations. The biologically based, mechanistic model provides a better foundation for the extrapolation of risks to different mammography screening practices than empirical models do. The model predicts that the excess relative risk (ERR) doubles when screening starts at age 40 instead of 50 and that a continuation of screening at ages 75 and higher carries little extra risk. The number of induced fatal breast cancers is estimated to be considerably lower than derived from epidemiological studies and from internationally accepted radiation protection risks. The present findings, if used in a risk-benefit analysis for mammography screening, would be more favorable to screening than estimates currently recommended for radiation protection. This has implications for the screening ages that are currently being reconsidered in several countries.

Late Quaternary offset of alluvial fan surfaces along the Central Sierra Madre Fault, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burgette, Reed J.; Hanson, Austin; Scharer, Katherine M.; Midttun, Nikolas

2016-01-01

The Sierra Madre Fault is a reverse fault system along the southern flank of the San Gabriel Mountains near Los Angeles, California. This study focuses on the Central Sierra Madre Fault (CSMF) in an effort to provide numeric dating on surfaces with ages previously estimated from soil development alone. We have refined previous geomorphic mapping conducted in the western portion of the CSMF near Pasadena, CA, with the aid of new lidar data. This progress report focuses on our geochronology strategy employed in collecting samples and interpreting data to determine a robust suite of terrace surface ages. Sample sites for terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and luminescence dating techniques were selected to be redundant and to be validated through relative geomorphic relationships between inset terrace levels. Additional sample sites were selected to evaluate the post-abandonment histories of terrace surfaces. We will combine lidar-derived displacement data with surface ages to estimate slip rates for the CSMF.

Strain-specific estimation of epidemic success provides insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Rasigade, Jean-Philippe; Barbier, Maxime; Dumitrescu, Oana; Pichat, Catherine; Carret, Gérard; Ronnaux-Baron, Anne-Sophie; Blasquez, Ghislaine; Godin-Benhaim, Christine; Boisset, Sandrine; Carricajo, Anne; Jacomo, Véronique; Fredenucci, Isabelle; Pérouse de Montclos, Michèle; Flandrois, Jean-Pierre; Ader, Florence; Supply, Philip; Lina, Gérard; Wirth, Thierry

2017-01-01

The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis involves complex interactions of socio-economic and, possibly, microbiological factors. We describe an analytical framework to infer factors of epidemic success based on the joint analysis of epidemiological, clinical and pathogen genetic data. We derive isolate-specific, genetic distance-based estimates of epidemic success, and we represent success-related time-dependent concepts, namely epidemicity and endemicity, by restricting analysis to specific time scales. The method is applied to analyze a surveillance-based cohort of 1,641 tuberculosis patients with minisatellite-based isolate genotypes. Known predictors of isolate endemicity (older age, native status) and epidemicity (younger age, sputum smear positivity) were identified with high confidence (P < 0.001). Long-term epidemic success also correlated with the ability of Euro-American and Beijing MTBC lineages to cause active pulmonary infection, independent of patient age and country of origin. Our results demonstrate how important insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis can be gained from active surveillance data. PMID:28349973

Using more than the oldest fossils: dating osmundaceae with three Bayesian clock approaches.

PubMed

Grimm, Guido W; Kapli, Paschalia; Bomfleur, Benjamin; McLoughlin, Stephen; Renner, Susanne S

2015-05-01

A major concern in molecular clock dating is how to use information from the fossil record to calibrate genetic distances from DNA sequences. Here we apply three Bayesian dating methods that differ in how calibration is achieved-"node dating" (ND) in BEAST, "total evidence" (TE) dating in MrBayes, and the "fossilized birth-death" (FBD) in FDPPDiv-to infer divergence times in the royal ferns. Osmundaceae have 16-17 species in four genera, two mainly in the Northern Hemisphere and two in South Africa and Australasia; they are the sister clade to the remaining leptosporangiate ferns. Their fossil record consists of at least 150 species in ∼17 genera. For ND, we used the five oldest fossils, whereas for TE and FBD dating, which do not require forcing fossils to nodes and thus can use more fossils, we included up to 36 rhizomes and frond compression/impression fossils, which for TE dating were scored for 33 morphological characters. We also subsampled 10%, 25%, and 50% of the 36 fossils to assess model sensitivity. FBD-derived divergence ages were generally greater than those inferred from ND; two of seven TE-derived ages agreed with FBD-obtained ages, the others were much younger or much older than ND or FBD ages. We prefer the FBD-derived ages because they best fit the Osmundales fossil record (including Triassic fossils not used in our study). Under the preferred model, the clade encompassing extant Osmundaceae (and many fossils) dates to the latest Paleozoic to Early Triassic; divergences of the extant species occurred during the Neogene. Under the assumption of constant speciation and extinction rates, the FBD approach yielded speciation and extinction rates that overlapped those obtained from just neontological data. However, FBD estimates of speciation and extinction are sensitive to violations in the assumption of continuous fossil sampling; therefore, these estimates should be treated with caution. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Age determination of soft tissue hematomas.

PubMed

Neumayer, Bernhard; Hassler, Eva; Petrovic, Andreas; Widek, Thomas; Ogris, Kathrin; Scheurer, Eva

2014-11-01

In clinical forensic medicine, the estimation of the age of injuries such as externally visible subcutaneous hematomas is important for the reconstruction of violent events, particularly to include or exclude potential suspects. Since the estimation of the time of origin based on external inspection is unreliable, the aim of this study was to use contrast in MRI to develop an easy-to-use model for hematoma age estimation. In a longitudinal study, artificially created subcutaneous hematomas were repetitively imaged using MRI over a period of two weeks. The hemorrhages were created by injecting autologous blood into the subcutaneous tissue of the thigh in 20 healthy volunteers. For MRI, standard commercially available sequences, namely proton-density-weighted, T2 -weighted and inversion recovery sequences, were used. The hematomas' MRI data were analyzed regarding their contrast behavior using the most suitable sequences to derive a model allowing an objective estimation of the age of soft tissue hematomas. The Michelson contrast between hematoma and muscle in the proton-density-weighted sequence showed an exponentially decreasing behavior with a dynamic range of 0.6 and a maximum standard deviation of 0.1. The contrast of the inversion recovery sequences showed increasing characteristics and was hypointense for TI = 200ms and hyperintense for TI =1000ms. These sequences were used to create a contrast model. The cross-validation of the model finally yielded limits of agreement for hematoma age determination (corresponding to ±1.96 SD) of ±38.7h during the first three days and ±54 h for the entire investigation period. The developed model provides lookup tables which allow for the estimation of a hematoma's age given a single contrast measurement applicable by a radiologist or a forensic physician. This is a first step towards an accurate and objective dating method for subcutaneous hematomas, which will be particularly useful in child abuse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Random regression models on Legendre polynomials to estimate genetic parameters for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G; Alencar, M M

2010-08-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions for direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects, and subsequently, to derive relevant genetic parameters for growth traits in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 weight records on 2435 females from birth to adult age. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups (year and month of birth and at weighing) and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were allowed to vary and were modelled by a step function with 1, 4 or 11 classes based on animal's age. The model fitting four classes of residual variances was the best. A total of 12 random regression models from second to seventh order were used to model direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The model with direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects fitted by quadric, cubic, quintic and linear Legendre polynomials, respectively, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Estimates of direct and maternal heritability obtained by multi-trait (seven traits) and random regression models were very similar. Selection for higher weight at any age, especially after weaning, will produce an increase in mature cow weight. The possibility to modify the growth curve in Canchim cattle to obtain animals with rapid growth at early ages and moderate to low mature cow weight is limited.

Body mass index bias in defining obesity of diverse young adults: The Training Intervention and Genetics of Exercise Response (TIGER) Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The BMI cut-score used to define overweight and obesity was derived primarily using data from Caucasian men and women. The present study evaluated the racial/ethnic bias of BMI to estimate the adiposity of young men and women (aged 17–35 years) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) determinat...

Heritability of Autism Spectrum Disorder in a UK Population-Based Twin Sample

PubMed Central

Colvert, Emma; Tick, Beata; McEwen, Fiona; Stewart, Catherine; Curran, Sarah R.; Woodhouse, Emma; Gillan, Nicola; Hallett, Victoria; Lietz, Stephanie; Garnett, Tracy; Ronald, Angelica; Plomin, Robert; Rijsdijk, Frühling; Happé, Francesca; Bolton, Patrick

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Most evidence to date highlights the importance of genetic influences on the liability to autism and related traits. However, most of these findings are derived from clinically ascertained samples, possibly missing individuals with subtler manifestations, and obtained estimates may not be representative of the population. OBJECTIVES To establish the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in liability to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and a broader autism phenotype in a large population-based twin sample and to ascertain the genetic/environmental relationship between dimensional trait measures and categorical diagnostic constructs of ASD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We used data from the population-based cohort Twins Early Development Study, which included all twin pairs born in England and Wales from January 1, 1994, through December 31, 1996. We performed joint continuous-ordinal liability threshold model fitting using the full information maximum likelihood method to estimate genetic and environmental parameters of covariance. Twin pairs underwent the following assessments: the Childhood Autism Spectrum Test (CAST) (6423 pairs; mean age, 7.9 years), the Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA) (359 pairs; mean age, 10.3 years), the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) (203 pairs; mean age, 13.2 years), the Autism Diagnostic Interview–Revised (ADI-R) (205 pairs; mean age, 13.2 years), and a best-estimate diagnosis (207 pairs). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Participants underwent screening using a population-based measure of autistic traits (CAST assessment), structured diagnostic assessments (DAWBA, ADI-R, and ADOS), and a best-estimate diagnosis. RESULTS On all ASD measures, correlations among monozygotic twins (range, 0.77-0.99) were significantly higher than those for dizygotic twins (range, 0.22-0.65), giving heritability estimates of 56% to 95%. The covariance of CAST and ASD diagnostic status (DAWBA, ADOS and best-estimate diagnosis) was largely explained by additive genetic factors (76%-95%). For the ADI-R only, shared environmental influences were significant (30% [95% CI, 8%-47%]) but smaller than genetic influences (56% [95% CI, 37%-82%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The liability to ASD and a more broadly defined high-level autism trait phenotype in this large population-based twin sample derives primarily from additive genetic and, to a lesser extent, nonshared environmental effects. The largely consistent results across different diagnostic tools suggest that the results are generalizable across multiple measures and assessment methods. Genetic factors underpinning individual differences in autismlike traits show considerable overlap with genetic influences on diagnosed ASD. PMID:25738232

Aged boreal biomass-burning aerosol size distributions from BORTAS 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, K. M.; Allan, J. D.; Coe, H.; Taylor, J. W.; Duck, T. J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-02-01

Biomass-burning aerosols contribute to aerosol radiative forcing on the climate system. The magnitude of this effect is partially determined by aerosol size distributions, which are functions of source fire characteristics (e.g. fuel type, MCE) and in-plume microphysical processing. The uncertainties in biomass-burning emission number-size distributions in climate model inventories lead to uncertainties in the CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentrations and forcing estimates derived from these models. The BORTAS-B (Quantifying the impact of BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellite) measurement campaign was designed to sample boreal biomass-burning outflow over eastern Canada in the summer of 2011. Using these BORTAS-B data, we implement plume criteria to isolate the characteristic size distribution of aged biomass-burning emissions (aged ~ 1-2 days) from boreal wildfires in northwestern Ontario. The composite median size distribution yields a single dominant accumulation mode with Dpm = 230 nm (number-median diameter) and σ = 1.5, which are comparable to literature values of other aged plumes of a similar type. The organic aerosol enhancement ratios (ΔOA / ΔCO) along the path of Flight b622 show values of 0.09-0.17 μg m-3 ppbv-1 (parts per billion by volume) with no significant trend with distance from the source. This lack of enhancement ratio increase/decrease with distance suggests no detectable net OA (organic aerosol) production/evaporation within the aged plume over the sampling period (plume age: 1-2 days), though it does not preclude OA production/loss at earlier stages. A Lagrangian microphysical model was used to determine an estimate of the freshly emitted size distribution corresponding to the BORTAS-B aged size distributions. The model was restricted to coagulation and dilution processes based on the insignificant net OA production/evaporation derived from the ΔOA / ΔCO enhancement ratios. We estimate that the young-plume median diameter was in the range of 59-94 nm with modal widths in the range of 1.7-2.8 (the ranges are due to uncertainty in the entrainment rate). Thus, the size of the freshly emitted particles is relatively unconstrained due to the uncertainties in the plume dilution rates.

Quantifying Slope Effects and Variations in Crater Density across a Single Geologic Unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Heather; Mahanti, Prasun; Robinson, Mark; Povilaitis, Reinhold

2016-10-01

Steep underlying slopes (>~5°) significantly increase the rate of degradation of craters [1-3]. As a result, the density of craters is less on steeper slopes for terrains of the same age [2, 4]. Thus, when age-dating a planetary surface, an area encompassing one geologic unit of constant low slope is chosen. However, many key geologic units, such as ejecta blankets, lack sufficient area of constant slope to derive robust age estimates. Therefore, accurate age-dating of such units requires an accurate understanding of the effects of slope on age estimates. This work seeks to determine if the observed trend of decreasing crater density with increasing slopes [2] holds for craters >1 km and to quantify the effect of slope for craters of this size, focusing on the effect of slopes over the kilometer scale. Our study focuses on the continuous ejecta of Orientale basin, where we measure craters >1 km excluding secondaries that occur as chains or clusters. Age-dating via crater density measurements relies on uniform cratering across a single geologic unit. In the case of ejecta blankets and other impact related surfaces, this assumption may not hold due to the formation of auto- secondary craters. As such, we use LRO WAC mosaics [5], crater size-frequency distributions, absolute age estimates, a 3 km slope map derived from the WAC GLD100 [6], and density maps for various crater size ranges to look for evidence of non-uniform cratering across the continuous ejecta of Orientale and to determine the effect of slope on crater density. Preliminary results suggest that crater density does decrease with increasing slope for craters >1 km in diameter though at a slower rate than for smaller craters.References: [1] Trask N. J. and Rowan L. C. (1967) Science 158, 1529-1535. [2] Basilevsky (1976) Proc. Lunar Sci. Conf. 7th, p. 1005-1020. [3] Pohn and Offield (1970) USGS Prof. Pap., 153-162. [4] Xiao et al. (2013) Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 376, pgs. 1-11. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2013.06.015. [5] Robinson M. S. et al. (2010) Space Sci. Rev. 150, 81 -124. [6] Scholten F. et al. (2011), JGR, 117, doi:10.1029/2011JE003926

Chernobyl accident: reconstruction of thyroid dose for inhabitants of the Republic of Belarus.

PubMed

Gavrilin, Y I; Khrouch, V T; Shinkarev, S M; Krysenko, N A; Skryabin, A M; Bouville, A; Anspaugh, L R

1999-02-01

The Chernobyl accident in April 1986 resulted in widespread contamination of the environment with radioactive materials, including (131)I and other radioiodines. This environmental contamination led to substantial radiation doses in the thyroids of many inhabitants of the Republic of Belarus. The reconstruction of thyroid doses received by Belarussians is based primarily on exposure rates measured against the neck of more than 200,000 people in the more contaminated territories; these measurements were carried out within a few weeks after the accident and before the decay of (131)I to negligible levels. Preliminary estimates of thyroid dose have been divided into 3 classes: Class 1 ("measured" doses), Class 2 (doses "derived by affinity"), and Class 3 ("empirically-derived" doses). Class 1 doses are estimated directly from the measured thyroidal (131)I content of the person considered, plus information on lifestyle and dietary habits. Such estimates are available for about 130,000 individuals from the contaminated areas of the Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts and from the city of Minsk. Maximum individual doses are estimated to range up to about 60 Gy. For every village with a sufficient number of residents with Class 1 doses, individual thyroid dose distributions are determined for several age groups and levels of milk consumption. These data are used to derive Class 2 thyroid dose estimates for unmeasured inhabitants of these villages. For any village where the number of residents with Class 1 thyroid doses is small or equal to zero, individual thyroid doses of Class 3 are derived from the relationship obtained between the mean adult thyroid dose and the deposition density of (131)I or 137Cs in villages with Class 2 thyroid doses presenting characteristics similar to those of the village considered. In order to improve the reliability of the Class 3 thyroid doses, an extensive program of measurement of (129)I in soils is envisaged.

A prediction model for cognitive performance in health ageing using diffusion tensor imaging with graph theory.

PubMed

Yun, Ruijuan; Lin, Chung-Chih; Wu, Shuicai; Huang, Chu-Chung; Lin, Ching-Po; Chao, Yi-Ping

2013-01-01

In this study, we employed diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to construct brain structural network and then derive the connection matrices from 96 healthy elderly subjects. The correlation analysis between these topological properties of network based on graph theory and the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI) index were processed to extract the significant network characteristics. These characteristics were then integrated to estimate the models by various machine-learning algorithms to predict user's cognitive performance. From the results, linear regression model and Gaussian processes model showed presented better abilities with lower mean absolute errors of 5.8120 and 6.25 to predict the cognitive performance respectively. Moreover, these extracted topological properties of brain structural network derived from DTI also could be regarded as the bio-signatures for further evaluation of brain degeneration in healthy aged and early diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

A method comparison of a food frequency questionnaire to measure folate, choline, betaine, vitamin C and carotenoids with 24-h dietary recalls in women of reproductive age.

PubMed

Coathup, V; Wheeler, S; Smith, L

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to conduct a method comparison of a modified food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), designed to estimate usual dietary intake of selected micronutrients and antioxidants including folate, choline, betaine, vitamin C and carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein, lycopene and β-cryptoxanthin) with 24-h dietary recalls (24-HR) in women of reproductive age. Sixty-four British women of reproductive age (18-40 years) were recruited in Oxford, UK and provided complete dietary data for analysis. We compared micronutrient estimates from the FFQ against estimates derived from three multiple-pass, 24-HR interviews, by evaluating Pearson's correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots. Median intakes of most nutrients were higher when measured by FFQ compared with 24-HR. Strong correlation coefficients were observed for folate (r=0.80) and choline (r=0.68), whereas moderate correlation coefficients were observed for vitamin C (0.50) and lycopene (0.43). Weak correlation coefficients were observed for betaine (0.39) and other carotenoids (r=0.26-0.38). Bland-Altman plots indicated that there was a large amount of variability in the FFQ estimates of nutrient intakes compared to those using 24-HR, particularly for carotenoids. The findings indicate that this FFQ estimated higher mean intakes for most nutrients. Pearson's correlation coefficients were comparable with previous research; however, the Bland-Altman plots suggest a high variability in mean nutrient estimates between the FFQ and 24-h. We recommend further investigation of the validity of this FFQ before use.

Estimating the geographical distribution of the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in young Mexicans.

PubMed

Murguía-Romero, Miguel; Jiménez-Flores, Rafael; Villalobos-Molina, Rafael; Méndez-Cruz, Adolfo René

2012-09-01

The geographical distribution of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalence in young Mexicans (aged 17-24 years) was estimated stepwise starting from its prevalence based on the body mass index (BMI) in a study of 3,176 undergraduate students of this age group from Mexico City. To estimate the number of people with MetS by state, we multiplied its prevalence derived from the BMI range found in the Mexico City sample by the BMI proportions (range and state) obtained from the Mexico 2006 national survey on health and nutrition. Finally, to estimate the total number of young people with MetS in Mexico, its prevalence by state was multiplied by the share of young population in each state according to the National Population and Housing Census 2010. Based on these figures, we estimated the national prevalence of MetS at 15.8%, the average BMI at 24.1 (standard deviation = 4.2), and the prevalence of overweight people (BMI ≥25) of that age group at 39.0%. These results imply that 2,588,414 young Mexicans suffered from MetS in 2010. The Yucatan peninsula in the south and the Sonora state in the north showed the highest rates of MetS prevalence. The calculation of the MetS prevalence by BMI range in a sample of the population, and extrapolating it using the BMI proportions by range of the total population, was found to be a useful approach. We conclude that the BMI is a valuable public health tool to estimate MetS prevalence in the whole country, including its geographical distribution.

White Dwarfs in Wide Binaries and the Age of the Galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, John Allyn

A comprehensive study of common proper binary systems suspected of containing white dwarf stars is being conducted by Oswalt and collaborators (Oswalt et al. 1988). These systems usually contain a white dwarf and a main sequence star. In the present study, we use the white dwarf luminosity function to determine the age of the local Galactic disk as well as the local space density of white dwarfs. We obtained BVRI photometry of approximately 475 systems (of 512) which were found to contain about 325 white dwarfs. Of these white dwarfs, 152 met the selection criteria for our study and were used in the final analysis. Using this largest sample of cool white dwarfs in binary systems observed to date, we have determined an age for the Galactic disk of 9.7-0.8+0.9 Gyr which yields a lower limit age for the Universe of about 11.7 Gyr. Recent globular cluster studies agree to within ±1σ for the Galaxy age derived from our Disk age. The latest cosmologically derived age for the Universe, modified for the recently released Hipparcos data, is now in accordance with our age estimates for the Universe, for H o (69 km s-1 Mpc-1) and an inflationary cosmology. Further, our age is in accord with the ages derived for the Galaxy from nucleocomsochronology and meteoritic sample analyses. As a part of this work, we have determined the white dwarf space density to be 4.5 ± 1.0 10-3 pc-3, in accord with the results previously reported by Liebert, Dahn & Monet (1987). This space density corresponds to a white dwarf birthrate of 4.65 × 10-13 yr-1 pc-3. This research also details a unique approach to calculating and correcting for the incompleteness of a proper motion and magnitude selected stellar sample.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Spectroscopic analysis of 348 red giants (Zielinski+, 2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielinski, P.; Niedzielski, A.; Wolszczan, A.; Adamow, M.; Nowak, G.

2012-10-01

The atmospheric parameters were derived using a strictly spectroscopic method based on the LTE analysis of equivalent widths of FeI and FeII lines. With existing photometric data and the Hipparcos parallaxes, we estimated stellar masses and ages via evolutionary tracks fitting. The stellar radii were calculated from either estimated masses and the spectroscopic logg or from the spectroscopic Teff and estimated luminosities. The absolute radial velocities were obtained by cross-correlating spectra with a numerical template. Our high-quality, high-resolution optical spectra have been collected since 2004 with the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET), located in the McDonald Observatory. The telescope was equipped with the High Resolution Spectrograph (HRS; R~60000 resolution). (2 data files).

A Critical Assessment of Ages Derived Using Pre-Main-Sequence Isochrones in Colour-Magnitude Diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Cameron P. M.

2012-11-01

In this thesis a critical assessment of the ages derived using theoretical pre-main-sequence (pre-MS) stellar evolutionary models is presented by comparing the predictions to the low-mass pre-MS population of 14 young star-forming regions (SFRs) in colour-magnitude diagrams (CMDs). Deriving pre-MS ages requires precise distances and estimates of the reddening. Therefore, the main-sequence (MS) members of the SFRs have been used to derive a self-consistent set of statistically robust ages, distances and reddenings with associated uncertainties using a maximum-likelihood fitting statistic and MS evolutionary models. A photometric method for de-reddening individual stars - known as the Q-method - in regions where the extinction is spatially variable has been updated and is presented. The effects of both the model dependency and the SFR composition on these derived parameters are also discussed. The problem of calibrating photometric observations of red pre-MS stars is examined and it is shown that using observations of MS stars to transform the data into a standard photometric system can introduce significant errors in the position of the pre-MS locus in CMD space. Hence, it is crucial that precise photometric studies - especially of pre-MS objects - be carried out in the natural photometric system of the observations. This therefore requires a robust model of the system responses for the instrument used, and thus the calculated responses for the Wide-Field Camera on the Isaac Newton Telescope are presented. These system responses have been tested using standard star observations and have been shown to be a good representation of the photometric system. A benchmark test for the pre-MS evolutionary models is performed by comparing them to a set of well-calibrated CMDs of the Pleiades in the wavelength regime 0.4-2.5 μm. The masses predicted by these models are also tested against dynamical masses using a sample of MS binaries by calculating the system magnitude in a given photometric bandpass. This analysis shows that for Teff ≤ 4000 K the models systematically overestimate the flux by a factor of 2 at 0.5 μm, though this decreases with wavelength, becoming negligible at 2.2 μm. Thus before the pre-MS models are used to derive ages, a recalibration of the models is performed by incorporating an empirical colour-Teff relation and bolometric corrections based on the Ks-band luminosity of Pleiades members, with theoretical corrections for the dependence on the surface gravity (log g). The recalibrated pre-MS model isochrones are used to derive ages from the pre-MS populations of the SFRs. These ages are then compared with the MS derivations, thus providing a powerful diagnostic tool with which to discriminate between the different pre-MS age scales that arise from a much stronger model dependency in the pre-MS regime. The revised ages assigned to each of the 14 SFRs are up to a factor two older than previous derivations, a result with wide-ranging implications, including that circumstellar discs survive longer and that the average Class II lifetime is greater than currently believed.

Towards a novel look on low-frequency climate reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamenik, Christian; Goslar, Tomasz; Hicks, Sheila; Barnekow, Lena; Huusko, Antti

2010-05-01

Information on low-frequency (millennial to sub-centennial) climate change is often derived from sedimentary archives, such as peat profiles or lake sediments. Usually, these archives have non-annual and varying time resolution. Their dating is mainly based on radionuclides, which provide probabilistic age-depth relationships with complex error structures. Dating uncertainties impede the interpretation of sediment-based climate reconstructions. They complicate the calculation of time-dependent rates. In most cases, they make any calibration in time impossible. Sediment-based climate proxies are therefore often presented as a single, best-guess time series without proper calibration and error estimation. Errors along time and dating errors that propagate into the calculation of time-dependent rates are neglected. Our objective is to overcome the aforementioned limitations by using a 'swarm' or 'ensemble' of reconstructions instead of a single best-guess. The novelty of our approach is to take into account age-depth uncertainties by permuting through a large number of potential age-depth relationships of the archive of interest. For each individual permutation we can then calculate rates, calibrate proxies in time, and reconstruct the climate-state variable of interest. From the resulting swarm of reconstructions, we can derive realistic estimates of even complex error structures. The likelihood of reconstructions is visualized by a grid of two-dimensional kernels that take into account probabilities along time and the climate-state variable of interest simultaneously. For comparison and regional synthesis, likelihoods can be scored against other independent climate time series.

Challenges of accelerated aging techniques for elastomer lifetime predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Bernstein, R.; Celina, M.

Elastomers are often degraded when exposed to air or high humidity for extended times (years to decades). Lifetime estimates normally involve extrapolating accelerated aging results made at higher than ambient environments. Several potential problems associated with such studies are reviewed, and experimental and theoretical methods to address them are provided. The importance of verifying time–temperature superposition of degradation data is emphasized as evidence that the overall nature of the degradation process remains unchanged versus acceleration temperature. The confounding effects that occur when diffusion-limited oxidation (DLO) contributes under accelerated conditions are described, and it is shown that the DLO magnitude canmore » be modeled by measurements or estimates of the oxygen permeability coefficient (P Ox) and oxygen consumption rate (Φ). P Ox and Φ measurements can be influenced by DLO, and it is demonstrated how confident values can be derived. In addition, several experimental profiling techniques that screen for DLO effects are discussed. Values of Φ taken from high temperature to temperatures approaching ambient can be used to more confidently extrapolate accelerated aging results for air-aged materials, and many studies now show that Arrhenius extrapolations bend to lower activation energies as aging temperatures are lowered. Furthermore, best approaches for accelerated aging extrapolations of humidity-exposed materials are also offered.« less

Challenges of accelerated aging techniques for elastomer lifetime predictions

DOE PAGES

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Bernstein, R.; Celina, M.

2015-03-01

Elastomers are often degraded when exposed to air or high humidity for extended times (years to decades). Lifetime estimates normally involve extrapolating accelerated aging results made at higher than ambient environments. Several potential problems associated with such studies are reviewed, and experimental and theoretical methods to address them are provided. The importance of verifying time–temperature superposition of degradation data is emphasized as evidence that the overall nature of the degradation process remains unchanged versus acceleration temperature. The confounding effects that occur when diffusion-limited oxidation (DLO) contributes under accelerated conditions are described, and it is shown that the DLO magnitude canmore » be modeled by measurements or estimates of the oxygen permeability coefficient (P Ox) and oxygen consumption rate (Φ). P Ox and Φ measurements can be influenced by DLO, and it is demonstrated how confident values can be derived. In addition, several experimental profiling techniques that screen for DLO effects are discussed. Values of Φ taken from high temperature to temperatures approaching ambient can be used to more confidently extrapolate accelerated aging results for air-aged materials, and many studies now show that Arrhenius extrapolations bend to lower activation energies as aging temperatures are lowered. Furthermore, best approaches for accelerated aging extrapolations of humidity-exposed materials are also offered.« less

Determinants of consumption-day amounts applicable for the estimation of usual dietary intake with a short 24-h food list.

PubMed

Freese, Johanna; Pricop-Jeckstadt, Mihaela; Heuer, Thorsten; Clemens, Matthias; Boeing, Heiner; Knüppel, Sven; Nöthlings, Ute

2016-01-01

Next to the information on frequency of food consumption, information on consumption-day amounts is important to estimate usual dietary intake in epidemiological studies. Our objective was to identify determinants of consumption-day amounts to derive person-specific standard consumption-day amounts applicable for the estimation of usual dietary intake using separate sources to assesss information on consumption probability and amount consumed. 24-h Dietary recall data from the German National Nutrition Survey II ( n  = 8522; aged 20-80 years) conducted between 2005 and 2007 were analysed for determinants of consumption-day amounts of thirty-eight food and beverage groups using LASSO variable selection for linear mixed-effects models. Determinants included sex, age, BMI, smoking status, years of education, household net income, living status and employment status. Most often, sex, age and smoking status were selected as predictors for consumption-day amounts across thirty-eight food groups. In contrast, living with a partner, employment status and household net income were less frequently chosen. Overall, different determinants were of relevance for different food groups. The number of selected determinants ranged from eight for coffee and juice to zero for cabbage, tea, root vegetables, leafy vegetables, fruit vegetables, legumes, offal, vegetable oils, and other fats. For the estimation of usual dietary intake in a combined approach with a 24-h food list, person-specific standard consumption-day amounts could be used. Sex, age and smoking status were shown to be the most relevant predictors in our analysis. Their impact on the estimation of usual dietary intake needs to be evaluated in future studies.

Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions from 2010 to 2050. This growth is caused by increases in heating energy because the elderly generally spend more time at home, and cooling energy owing to rising temperatures. This study will be useful in the preparation of energy demand management policies and the establishment and attainability of GHG emissions reduction goals.

Mapping of the DLQI scores to EQ-5D utility values using ordinal logistic regression.

PubMed

Ali, Faraz Mahmood; Kay, Richard; Finlay, Andrew Y; Piguet, Vincent; Kupfer, Joerg; Dalgard, Florence; Salek, M Sam

2017-11-01

The Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) and the European Quality of Life-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) are separate measures that may be used to gather health-related quality of life (HRQoL) information from patients. The EQ-5D is a generic measure from which health utility estimates can be derived, whereas the DLQI is a specialty-specific measure to assess HRQoL. To reduce the burden of multiple measures being administered and to enable a more disease-specific calculation of health utility estimates, we explored an established mathematical technique known as ordinal logistic regression (OLR) to develop an appropriate model to map DLQI data to EQ-5D-based health utility estimates. Retrospective data from 4010 patients were randomly divided five times into two groups for the derivation and testing of the mapping model. Split-half cross-validation was utilized resulting in a total of ten ordinal logistic regression models for each of the five EQ-5D dimensions against age, sex, and all ten items of the DLQI. Using Monte Carlo simulation, predicted health utility estimates were derived and compared against those observed. This method was repeated for both OLR and a previously tested mapping methodology based on linear regression. The model was shown to be highly predictive and its repeated fitting demonstrated a stable model using OLR as well as linear regression. The mean differences between OLR-predicted health utility estimates and observed health utility estimates ranged from 0.0024 to 0.0239 across the ten modeling exercises, with an average overall difference of 0.0120 (a 1.6% underestimate, not of clinical importance). This modeling framework developed in this study will enable researchers to calculate EQ-5D health utility estimates from a specialty-specific study population, reducing patient and economic burden.

Estimating Dynamical Systems: Derivative Estimation Hints From Sir Ronald A. Fisher.

PubMed

Deboeck, Pascal R

2010-08-06

The fitting of dynamical systems to psychological data offers the promise of addressing new and innovative questions about how people change over time. One method of fitting dynamical systems is to estimate the derivatives of a time series and then examine the relationships between derivatives using a differential equation model. One common approach for estimating derivatives, Local Linear Approximation (LLA), produces estimates with correlated errors. Depending on the specific differential equation model used, such correlated errors can lead to severely biased estimates of differential equation model parameters. This article shows that the fitting of dynamical systems can be improved by estimating derivatives in a manner similar to that used to fit orthogonal polynomials. Two applications using simulated data compare the proposed method and a generalized form of LLA when used to estimate derivatives and when used to estimate differential equation model parameters. A third application estimates the frequency of oscillation in observations of the monthly deaths from bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma in the United Kingdom. These data are publicly available in the statistical program R, and functions in R for the method presented are provided.

Resolution of ray-finned fish phylogeny and timing of diversification.

PubMed

Near, Thomas J; Eytan, Ron I; Dornburg, Alex; Kuhn, Kristen L; Moore, Jon A; Davis, Matthew P; Wainwright, Peter C; Friedman, Matt; Smith, W Leo

2012-08-21

Ray-finned fishes make up half of all living vertebrate species. Nearly all ray-finned fishes are teleosts, which include most commercially important fish species, several model organisms for genomics and developmental biology, and the dominant component of marine and freshwater vertebrate faunas. Despite the economic and scientific importance of ray-finned fishes, the lack of a single comprehensive phylogeny with corresponding divergence-time estimates has limited our understanding of the evolution and diversification of this radiation. Our analyses, which use multiple nuclear gene sequences in conjunction with 36 fossil age constraints, result in a well-supported phylogeny of all major ray-finned fish lineages and molecular age estimates that are generally consistent with the fossil record. This phylogeny informs three long-standing problems: specifically identifying elopomorphs (eels and tarpons) as the sister lineage of all other teleosts, providing a unique hypothesis on the radiation of early euteleosts, and offering a promising strategy for resolution of the "bush at the top of the tree" that includes percomorphs and other spiny-finned teleosts. Contrasting our divergence time estimates with studies using a single nuclear gene or whole mitochondrial genomes, we find that the former underestimates ages of the oldest ray-finned fish divergences, but the latter dramatically overestimates ages for derived teleost lineages. Our time-calibrated phylogeny reveals that much of the diversification leading to extant groups of teleosts occurred between the late Mesozoic and early Cenozoic, identifying this period as the "Second Age of Fishes."

Burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan, 2010-2030.

PubMed

Saito, Eiko; Charvat, Hadrien; Goto, Atsushi; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami

2016-04-01

Diabetes mellitus constitutes a major disease burden globally, and the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase worldwide. We aimed to estimate the burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan between 2010 and 2030. In this study, we estimated the population attributable fraction of cancer risk associated with type 2 diabetes in 2010 and 2030 using the prevalence estimates of type 2 diabetes in Japan from 1990 to 2030, summary hazard ratios of diabetes and cancer risk from a pooled analysis of eight large-scale Japanese cohort studies, observed incidence/mortality of cancer in 2010 and predicted incidence/mortality for 2030 derived from the age-period-cohort model. Our results showed that between 2010 and 2030, the total numbers of cancer incidence and mortality were predicted to increase by 38.9% and 10.5% in adults aged above 20 years, respectively. In the number of excess incident cancer cases associated with type 2 diabetes, an increase of 26.5% in men and 53.2% in women is expected between 2010 and 2030. The age-specific analysis showed that the population attributable fraction of cancer will increase in adults aged >60 years over time, but will not change in adults aged 20-59 years. In conclusion, this study suggests a modest but steady increase in cancers associated with type 2 diabetes. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Resolution of ray-finned fish phylogeny and timing of diversification

PubMed Central

Near, Thomas J.; Eytan, Ron I.; Dornburg, Alex; Kuhn, Kristen L.; Moore, Jon A.; Davis, Matthew P.; Wainwright, Peter C.; Friedman, Matt; Smith, W. Leo

2012-01-01

Ray-finned fishes make up half of all living vertebrate species. Nearly all ray-finned fishes are teleosts, which include most commercially important fish species, several model organisms for genomics and developmental biology, and the dominant component of marine and freshwater vertebrate faunas. Despite the economic and scientific importance of ray-finned fishes, the lack of a single comprehensive phylogeny with corresponding divergence-time estimates has limited our understanding of the evolution and diversification of this radiation. Our analyses, which use multiple nuclear gene sequences in conjunction with 36 fossil age constraints, result in a well-supported phylogeny of all major ray-finned fish lineages and molecular age estimates that are generally consistent with the fossil record. This phylogeny informs three long-standing problems: specifically identifying elopomorphs (eels and tarpons) as the sister lineage of all other teleosts, providing a unique hypothesis on the radiation of early euteleosts, and offering a promising strategy for resolution of the “bush at the top of the tree” that includes percomorphs and other spiny-finned teleosts. Contrasting our divergence time estimates with studies using a single nuclear gene or whole mitochondrial genomes, we find that the former underestimates ages of the oldest ray-finned fish divergences, but the latter dramatically overestimates ages for derived teleost lineages. Our time-calibrated phylogeny reveals that much of the diversification leading to extant groups of teleosts occurred between the late Mesozoic and early Cenozoic, identifying this period as the “Second Age of Fishes.” PMID:22869754

Development rates of Late Quaternary soils, Silver Lake Playa, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, M.C.; Harden, J.W.; McFadden, L.D.; Shroba, R.R.

1989-01-01

Soils formed on alluvial fan deposits that range in age from about 35 000 to 200 yr BP near Silver Lake playa in the Mojave Desert permit study of the rates of soil development in an arid, hyperthermic climate. Field-described properties of soils were quantified and analyzed using a soil development index that combines properties and horizon thicknesses. Pedogenic CaCO3 (as indicated by color), pH increase, and dry consistence appear to change with age at linear rates, whereas rubification appears to change at a logarithmic rate. The linear rates are best attributed to the progressive accumulation of CaCO3- and salt-rich eolian dust derived from the playa and other mnore distant sources. The total-texture values of soils on fans older than 10 000 yr BP are similar, which suggests that playas in this area may have been wet enough to restrict the availability of fines from these sources for many thousands of years prior to 10 000 yr BP. Equations derived from regressions of soil age and properties can be used to estimate ages of undated, lithologically similar deposits in similar climates and geomorphic settings. -from Authors

Simple anthropometrics are more correlated with health variables than are estimates of body composition in Yup'ik people.

PubMed

Bray, Maria; Pomeroy, Jeremy; Knowler, William C; Bersamin, Andrea; Hopkins, Scarlett; Brage, Søren; Stanhope, Kimber; Havel, Peter J; Boyer, Bert B

2013-09-01

To (1) evaluate the relationships between several indices of obesity with obesity-related risk factors; (2) compare the accuracy of body composition estimates derived from anthropometry and bioimpedance analysis (BIA) to estimates of body composition assessed by doubly-labeled water (DLW); and (3) establish equations for estimating fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), and percent body fat (PBF) in Yup'ik people. Participants included 1,056 adult Yup'ik people from 11 communities in Southwestern Alaska. In a sub-study of 30 participants, we developed population-specific linear regression models for estimating FM, FFM, and PBF from anthropometrics, age, sex, and BIA against criterion measures derived from total body water assessed with DLW. These models were then used with the population cohort and we analyzed the relationships between obesity indices and several health-related and disease status variables: (1) fasting plasma lipids, (2) glucose, (3) HbA1c, (4) adiponectin, (5) blood pressure, (6) diabetes (DM), and (7) cerebrocoronary vascular disease (CCVD) which includes stroke and heart disease. The best model for estimating FM in the sub-study used only three variables-sex, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference and had multiple R(2) = 0.9730. FFM and PBF were calculated from FM and body weight. WC and other anthropometrics were more highly correlated with a number of obesity-related risk factors than were direct estimates of body composition. Body composition in Yup'ik people can be accurately estimated from simple anthropometrics. Copyright © 2012 The Obesity Society.

Simple Anthropometrics Are More Correlated with Health Variables than Are Estimates of Body Composition in Yup’ik People

PubMed Central

Bray, Maria; Pomeroy, Jeremy; Knowler, William C.; Bersamin, Andrea; Hopkins, Scarlett; Brage, Søren; Stanhope, Kimber; Havel, Peter J.; Boyer, Bert B.

2012-01-01

We aimed to: 1) evaluate the relationships between several indices of obesity with obesity-related risk factors; 2) compare the accuracy of body composition estimates derived from anthropometry and bioimpedance analysis (BIA) to estimates of body composition assessed by doubly-labeled water (DLW); and 3) establish equations for estimating fat mass (FM), fat-free mass (FFM), and percent body fat (PBF) in Yup’ik Eskimo people. Participants included 1056 adult Yup’ik People from 11 communities in Southwestern Alaska. In a substudy of 30 participants, we developed population-specific linear regression models for estimating FM, FFM, and PBF from anthropometrics, age, sex, and BIA against criterion measures derived from total body water assessed with DLW. These models were then used with the population cohort and we analyzed the relationships between obesity indices and several health-related and disease status variables: 1. fasting plasma lipids, 2. glucose, 3. HbA1c, 4. adiponectin, 5. blood pressure, 6) diabetes (DM), and 7) cerebrocoronary vascular disease (CCVD) which includes stroke and heart disease. The best model for estimating FM in the substudy used only three variables – sex, waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference and had multiple R2=0.9730. FFM and PBF were calculated from FM and body weight. WC and other anthropometrics were more highly correlated with a number of obesity-related risk factors than were direct estimates of body composition. We conclude that body composition in Yup’ik People can be accurately estimated from simple anthropometrics. PMID:23666898

Rheumatic Heart Disease-Attributable Mortality at Ages 5-69 Years in Fiji: A Five-Year, National, Population-Based Record-Linkage Cohort Study.

PubMed

Parks, Tom; Kado, Joseph; Miller, Anne E; Ward, Brenton; Heenan, Rachel; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Bärnighausen, Till W; Mirabel, Mariana; Bloom, David E; Bailey, Robin L; Tukana, Isimeli N; Steer, Andrew C

2015-01-01

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is considered a major public health problem in developing countries, although scarce data are available to substantiate this. Here we quantify mortality from RHD in Fiji during 2008-2012 in people aged 5-69 years. Using 1,773,999 records derived from multiple sources of routine clinical and administrative data, we used probabilistic record-linkage to define a cohort of 2,619 persons diagnosed with RHD, observed for all-cause mortality over 11,538 person-years. Using relative survival methods, we estimated there were 378 RHD-attributable deaths, almost half of which occurred before age 40 years. Using census data as the denominator, we calculated there were 9.9 deaths (95% CI 9.8-10.0) and 331 years of life-lost (YLL, 95% CI 330.4-331.5) due to RHD per 100,000 person-years, standardised to the portion of the WHO World Standard Population aged 0-69 years. Valuing life using Fiji's per-capita gross domestic product, we estimated these deaths cost United States Dollar $6,077,431 annually. Compared to vital registration data for 2011-2012, we calculated there were 1.6-times more RHD-attributable deaths than the number reported, and found our estimate of RHD mortality exceeded all but the five leading reported causes of premature death, based on collapsed underlying cause-of-death diagnoses. Rheumatic heart disease is a leading cause of premature death as well as an important economic burden in this setting. Age-standardised death rates are more than twice those reported in current global estimates. Linkage of routine data provides an efficient tool to better define the epidemiology of neglected diseases.

The critical proportion of immune individuals needed to control hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ospina, Juan; Hincapié-Palacio, Doracelly

2016-05-01

We estimate the critical proportion of immunity (Pc) to control hepatitis B in Medellin - Colombia, based on a random population survey of 2077 individuals of 6-64 years of age. The force of infection (Fi) was estimated according to empirical data of susceptibility by age S(a), assuming a quadratic expression. Parameters were estimated by adjusting data to a nonlinear regression. Fi was defined by -(ds(a)/da)/s(a) and according to the form of the empirical curve S(a) we assume a quadratic expression given by S(a)= Ea2+Ba+C. Then we have the explicit expression for the accumulated Fi by age given by F(a) = -a(Ea+B)/c. The expression of average infection age A is obtained as A = L + EL3/(3C)+BL2/(2C) and the basic reproductive number R0 is obtained as R0 = 1 + 6C/(6C+2EL2+3BL). From the las result we obtain the Pc given by Pc= 6C/(12C+2EL2+3BL). Numerical simulations were performed with the age-susceptibility proportion and initial values (a=0.02, b=20, c=100), obtaining an adjusted coefficient of multiple determination of 64.83%. According to the best estimate, the algebraic expressions for S(a) and the Fi were derived. Using the result of Fi, we obtain A = 30, L =85; R0 CI 95%: 1.42 - 1.64 and Pc: 0-0.29. These results indicate that at the worst case, to maintain control of the disease should be immunes at least 30% of susceptible individuals. Similar results were obtained by sex and residential area.

Sample size estimation for alternating logistic regressions analysis of multilevel randomized community trials of under-age drinking.

PubMed

Reboussin, Beth A; Preisser, John S; Song, Eun-Young; Wolfson, Mark

2012-07-01

Under-age drinking is an enormous public health issue in the USA. Evidence that community level structures may impact on under-age drinking has led to a proliferation of efforts to change the environment surrounding the use of alcohol. Although the focus of these efforts is to reduce drinking by individual youths, environmental interventions are typically implemented at the community level with entire communities randomized to the same intervention condition. A distinct feature of these trials is the tendency of the behaviours of individuals residing in the same community to be more alike than that of others residing in different communities, which is herein called 'clustering'. Statistical analyses and sample size calculations must account for this clustering to avoid type I errors and to ensure an appropriately powered trial. Clustering itself may also be of scientific interest. We consider the alternating logistic regressions procedure within the population-averaged modelling framework to estimate the effect of a law enforcement intervention on the prevalence of under-age drinking behaviours while modelling the clustering at multiple levels, e.g. within communities and within neighbourhoods nested within communities, by using pairwise odds ratios. We then derive sample size formulae for estimating intervention effects when planning a post-test-only or repeated cross-sectional community-randomized trial using the alternating logistic regressions procedure.

Cancer and non-cancer health effects from food contaminant exposures for children and adults in California: a risk assessment

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In the absence of current cumulative dietary exposure assessments, this analysis was conducted to estimate exposure to multiple dietary contaminants for children, who are more vulnerable to toxic exposure than adults. Methods We estimated exposure to multiple food contaminants based on dietary data from preschool-age children (2–4 years, n=207), school-age children (5–7 years, n=157), parents of young children (n=446), and older adults (n=149). We compared exposure estimates for eleven toxic compounds (acrylamide, arsenic, lead, mercury, chlorpyrifos, permethrin, endosulfan, dieldrin, chlordane, DDE, and dioxin) based on self-reported food frequency data by age group. To determine if cancer and non-cancer benchmark levels were exceeded, chemical levels in food were derived from publicly available databases including the Total Diet Study. Results Cancer benchmark levels were exceeded by all children (100%) for arsenic, dieldrin, DDE, and dioxins. Non-cancer benchmarks were exceeded by >95% of preschool-age children for acrylamide and by 10% of preschool-age children for mercury. Preschool-age children had significantly higher estimated intakes of 6 of 11 compounds compared to school-age children (p<0.0001 to p=0.02). Based on self-reported dietary data, the greatest exposure to pesticides from foods included in this analysis were tomatoes, peaches, apples, peppers, grapes, lettuce, broccoli, strawberries, spinach, dairy, pears, green beans, and celery. Conclusions Dietary strategies to reduce exposure to toxic compounds for which cancer and non-cancer benchmarks are exceeded by children vary by compound. These strategies include consuming organically produced dairy and selected fruits and vegetables to reduce pesticide intake, consuming less animal foods (meat, dairy, and fish) to reduce intake of persistent organic pollutants and metals, and consuming lower quantities of chips, cereal, crackers, and other processed carbohydrate foods to reduce acrylamide intake. PMID:23140444

Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke.

PubMed

Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle K; Mensah, George A; Feigin, Valery L; Sposato, Luciano A; Naghavi, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Stroke mortality estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study are based on routine mortality statistics and redistribution of ill-defined codes that cannot be a cause of death, the so-called 'garbage codes' (GCs). This study describes the contribution of these codes to stroke mortality estimates. All available mortality data were compiled and non-specific cause codes were redistributed based on literature review and statistical methods. Ill-defined codes were redistributed to their specific cause of disease by age, sex, country and year. The reassignment was done based on the International Classification of Diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. Unspecified stroke and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing 'GCs' to stroke mortality estimates for hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS). There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to IS and HS for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. A large proportion of stroke fatalities are derived from the redistribution of 'unspecified stroke' and 'hypertension' with marked regional differences. Future advancements in stroke certification, data collections and statistical analyses may improve the estimation of the global stroke burden. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke

PubMed Central

Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle; Mensah, George A.; Feigin, Valery; Sposato, Luciano; Naghavi, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Background Stroke mortality estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study are based on routine mortality statistics and redistribution of ill-defined codes that cannot be a cause of death, the so-called “garbage codes”. This study describes the contribution of these codes to stroke mortality estimates. Methods All available mortality data were compiled and non-specific cause codes were redistributed based on literature review and statistical methods. Ill-defined codes were redistributed to their specific cause of disease by age, sex, country, and year. The reassignment was done based on the international classification of diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. Results Unspecified stroke, and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing “garbage codes” to stroke mortality estimates for intracranial hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke. There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. Conclusions A large proportion of stroke fatalities is derived from the redistribution of “unspecified stroke” and “hypertension” with marked regional differences. Future advancements in stroke certification, data collections, and statistical analyses may improve the estimation of the global stroke burden. PMID:26505189

Geographic Model and Biomarker-Derived Measures of Pesticide Exposure and Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

RITZ, BEATE; COSTELLO, SADIE

2013-01-01

For more than two decades, reports have suggested that pesticides and herbicides may be an etiologic factor in idiopathic Parkinson’s disease (PD). To date, no clear associations with any specific pesticide have been demonstrated from epidemiological studies perhaps, in part, because methods of reliably estimating exposures are lacking. We tested the validity of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based exposure assessment model that estimates potential environmental exposures at residences from pesticide applications to agricultural crops based on California Pesticide Use Reports (PUR). Using lipid-adjusted dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) serum levels as the “gold standard” for pesticide exposure, we conducted a validation study in a sample taken from an ongoing, population-based case–control study of PD in Central California. Residential, occupational, and other risk factor data were collected for 22 cases and 24 controls from Kern county, California. Environmental GIS–PUR-based organochlorine (OC) estimates were derived for each subject and compared to lipid-adjusted DDE serum levels. Relying on a linear regression model, we predicted log-transformed lipid-adjusted DDE serum levels. GIS–PUR-derived OC measure, body mass index, age, gender, mixing and loading pesticides by hand, and using pesticides in the home, together explained 47% of the DDE serum level variance (adjusted r2 = 0.47). The specificity of using our environmental GIS–PUR-derived OC measures to identify those with high-serum DDE levels was reasonably good (87%). Our environmental GIS–PUR-based approach appears to provide a valid model for assessing residential exposures to agricultural pesticides. PMID:17119217

Inferring Groundwater Age in an Alluvial Aquifer from Tracer Concentrations in the Stream - Little Wind River, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goble, D.; Gardner, W. P.; Naftz, D. L.; Solder, J. E.

2017-12-01

We use environmental tracers: CFC's, SF6, and 222Rn measured in stream water to determine volume and mean age of groundwater discharging to the Little Wind River, near Riverton, Wyoming. Samples of 222Rn were collected every 200 m along a 2 km reach, surrounding a known groundwater discharge zone. Nearby groundwater wells, in-stream piezometers and seepage meters were sampled for 222Rn, CFC's and SF6. Tracer concentrations measured in groundwater and in-stream piezometers were used to estimate the mean age of the subsurface system. High resolution 222Rn samples were used to determine the location and volume of groundwater inflow using a model of instream transport that includes radioactive decay and gas exchange with the atmosphere. The age of groundwater entering the stream was then estimated from in-stream measured CFC and SF6 concentrations using a new coupled stream transport and lumped-parameter groundwater age model. Ages derived from in-stream measurements were then compared to the age of subsurface water measured in piezometers, seepage meters, and groundwater wells. We then asses the ability of groundwater age inferred from in-stream samples to provide constraint on the age of the subsurface discharge to the stream. The ability to asses groundwater age from in-stream samples can provide a convenient method to constrain the regional distribution of groundwater circulation rates when groundwater sampling is challenging or wells are not in place.

Probabilistic Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level and its Underlying Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2015-12-01

Local sea level can vary significantly from the global mean value due to a suite of processes that includes ongoing sea-level changes due to the last ice age, land water storage, ocean circulation changes, and non-uniform sea-level changes that arise when modern-day land ice rapidly melts. Understanding these sources of spatial and temporal variability is critical to estimating past and present sea-level change and projecting future sea-level rise. Using two probabilistic techniques, a multi-model Kalman smoother and Gaussian process regression, we have reanalyzed 20th century tide gauge observations to produce a new estimate of global mean sea level (GMSL). Our methods allow us to extract global information from the sparse tide gauge field by taking advantage of the physics-based and model-derived geometry of the contributing processes. Both methods provide constraints on the sea-level contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The Kalman smoother tests multiple discrete models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), probabilistically computing the most likely GIA model given the observations, while the Gaussian process regression characterizes the prior covariance structure of a suite of GIA models and then uses this structure to estimate the posterior distribution of local rates of GIA-induced sea-level change. We present the two methodologies, the model-derived geometries of the underlying processes, and our new probabilistic estimates of GMSL and GIA.

How Many Words Do We Know? Practical Estimates of Vocabulary Size Dependent on Word Definition, the Degree of Language Input and the Participant’s Age

PubMed Central

Brysbaert, Marc; Stevens, Michaël; Mandera, Paweł; Keuleers, Emmanuel

2016-01-01

Based on an analysis of the literature and a large scale crowdsourcing experiment, we estimate that an average 20-year-old native speaker of American English knows 42,000 lemmas and 4,200 non-transparent multiword expressions, derived from 11,100 word families. The numbers range from 27,000 lemmas for the lowest 5% to 52,000 for the highest 5%. Between the ages of 20 and 60, the average person learns 6,000 extra lemmas or about one new lemma every 2 days. The knowledge of the words can be as shallow as knowing that the word exists. In addition, people learn tens of thousands of inflected forms and proper nouns (names), which account for the substantially high numbers of ‘words known’ mentioned in other publications. PMID:27524974

Does Maternal Body Mass Index Have an Effect on the Accuracy of Ultrasound-Derived Estimated Birth Weight?: A Retrospective Study.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Maritza G; Reed, Kathryn L; Center, Katherine E; Hill, Meghan G

2017-05-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the maternal body mass index (BMI) and the accuracy of ultrasound-derived birth weight. A retrospective chart review was performed on women who had an ultrasound examination between 36 and 43 weeks' gestation and had complete delivery data available through electronic medical records. The ultrasound-derived fetal weight was adjusted by 30 g per day of gestation that elapsed between the ultrasound examination and delivery to arrive at the predicted birth weight. A total of 403 pregnant women met inclusion criteria. Age ranged from 13-44 years (mean ± SD, 28.38 ± 5.97 years). The mean BMI was 32.62 ± 8.59 kg/m 2 . Most of the women did not have diabetes (n = 300 [74.0%]). The sample was primarily white (n = 165 [40.9%]) and Hispanic (n = 147 [36.5%]). The predicted weight of neonates at delivery (3677.07 ± 540.51 g) was higher than the actual birth weight (3335.92 ± 585.46 g). Based on regression analyses, as the BMI increased, so did the predicted weight (P < .01) and weight at delivery (P < .01). The accuracy of the estimated ultrasound-derived birth weight was not predicted by the maternal BMI (P = .22). Maternal race and diabetes status were not associated with the accuracy of ultrasound in predicting birth weight. Both predicted and actual birth weight increased as the BMI increased. However, the BMI did not affect the accuracy of the estimated ultrasound-derived birth weight. Maternal race and diabetes status did not influence the accuracy of the ultrasound-derived predicted birth weight. © 2017 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

On the relative ages of galactic globular clusters. A new observable, a semi-empirical calibration and problems with the theoretical isochrones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buonanno, R.; Corsi, C. E.; Pulone, L.; Fusi Pecci, F.; Bellazzini, M.

1998-05-01

A new procedure is described to derive homogeneous relative ages from the Color-Magnitude Diagrams (CMDs) of Galactic globular clusters (GGCs). It is based on the use of a new observable, Delta V(0.05) , namely the difference in magnitude between an arbitrary point on the upper main sequence (V_{+0.05} -the V magnitude of the MS-ridge, 0.05 mag redder than the Main Sequence (MS) Turn-off, (TO)) and the horizontal branch (HB). The observational error associated to Delta V(0.05) is substantially smaller than that of previous age-indicators, keeping the property of being strictly independent of distance and reddening and of being based on theoretical luminosities rather than on still uncertain theoretical temperatures. As an additional bonus, the theoretical models show that Delta V(0.05) has a low dependence on metallicity. Moreover, the estimates of the relative age so obtained are also sufficiently invariant (to within ~ +/- 1 Gyr) with varying adopted models and transformations. Since the difference in the color difference Delta (B-V)_{TO,RGB} (VandenBerg, Bolte and Stetson 1990 -VBS, Sarajedini and Demarque 1990 -SD) remains the most reliable technique to estimate relative cluster ages for clusters where the horizontal part of the HB is not adequately populated, we have used the differential ages obtained via the "vertical" Delta V(0.05) parameter for a selected sample of clusters (with high quality CMDs, well populated HBs, trustworthy calibrations) to perform an empirical calibration of the "horizontal" observable in terms of [Fe/H] and age. A direct comparison with the corresponding calibration derived from the theoretical models reveals the existence of clear-cut discrepancies, which call into question the model scaling with metallicity in the observational planes. Starting from the global sample of considered clusters, we have thus evaluated, within a homogeneous procedure, relative ages for 33 GGCs having different metallicity, HB-morphologies, and galactocentric distances. These new estimates have also been compared with previous latest determinations (Chaboyer, Demarque and Sarajedini 1996, and Richer {et al. } 1996). The distribution of the cluster ages with varying metallicity and galactocentric distance are briefly discussed: (a) there is no direct indication for any evident age-metallicity relationship; (b) there is some spread in age (still partially compatible with the errors), and the largest dispersion is found for intermediate metal-poor clusters; (c) older clusters populate both the inner and the outer regions of the Milky Way, while the younger globulars are present only in the outer regions, but the sample is far too poor to yield conclusive evidences.

Brief communication: the relation between standard error of the estimate and sample size of histomorphometric aging methods.

PubMed

Hennig, Cheryl; Cooper, David

2011-08-01

Histomorphometric aging methods report varying degrees of precision, measured through Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE). These techniques have been developed from variable samples sizes (n) and the impact of n on reported aging precision has not been rigorously examined in the anthropological literature. This brief communication explores the relation between n and SEE through a review of the literature (abstracts, articles, book chapters, theses, and dissertations), predictions based upon sampling theory and a simulation. Published SEE values for age prediction, derived from 40 studies, range from 1.51 to 16.48 years (mean 8.63; sd: 3.81 years). In general, these values are widely distributed for smaller samples and the distribution narrows as n increases--a pattern expected from sampling theory. For the two studies that have samples in excess of 200 individuals, the SEE values are very similar (10.08 and 11.10 years) with a mean of 10.59 years. Assuming this mean value is a 'true' characterization of the error at the population level, the 95% confidence intervals for SEE values from samples of 10, 50, and 150 individuals are on the order of ± 4.2, 1.7, and 1.0 years, respectively. While numerous sources of variation potentially affect the precision of different methods, the impact of sample size cannot be overlooked. The uncertainty associated with SEE values derived from smaller samples complicates the comparison of approaches based upon different methodology and/or skeletal elements. Meaningful comparisons require larger samples than have frequently been used and should ideally be based upon standardized samples. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Nutritional status and morbidity on an irrigation project in Turkana District, Kenya.

PubMed

Brainard, Jean

1990-01-01

The research reported on here was undertaken to identify the most important contributors to continuing high mortality on a small-scale irrigation project at Nakwamoru in Turkana District, Kenya. The health status of project settlers had not been assessed prior to the present study, which was undertaken in 1978-79, a decade after the project was started. The purpose of the study was to estimate the nutritional status of project children and the major causes of morbidity in the Nakwamoru area. Nutritional status was derived from cross-sectional anthropometric measurements, including weights, heights, triceps skinfolds, and upper arm circumferences, taken on approximately 60% of project children (n = 236) aged 1-10 years. The major causes of morbidity in project settlers of all ages for the period 1973-78 were estimated from outpatient records from the local primary care facility. Age/sex patterns of clinic use were obtained through interviews. Stunting was found to be prevalent, especially in children aged 1-4, while wasting was only observed in a small proportion of the sample, indicating a seasonal pattern of malnutrition. Derived cross-sectional areas of upper arm muscle and fat were found to be low by comparison with U.S. standards, suggesting both energy and protein deficits in project children. Malaria and acute respiratory infections were found to be the major causes of illness in the local population, and both are likely to have contributed to the generally poor nutritional status of project children. Despite free biomedical care, 15% of the local population in general and 23% of adult females had never used clinic services. Copyright © 1990 Wiley-Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company.

Continuity and Admixture in the Last Five Millennia of Levantine History from Ancient Canaanite and Present-Day Lebanese Genome Sequences.

PubMed

Haber, Marc; Doumet-Serhal, Claude; Scheib, Christiana; Xue, Yali; Danecek, Petr; Mezzavilla, Massimo; Youhanna, Sonia; Martiniano, Rui; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Szpak, Michał; Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth; Schutkowski, Holger; Mikulski, Richard; Zalloua, Pierre; Kivisild, Toomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris

2017-08-03

The Canaanites inhabited the Levant region during the Bronze Age and established a culture that became influential in the Near East and beyond. However, the Canaanites, unlike most other ancient Near Easterners of this period, left few surviving textual records and thus their origin and relationship to ancient and present-day populations remain unclear. In this study, we sequenced five whole genomes from ∼3,700-year-old individuals from the city of Sidon, a major Canaanite city-state on the Eastern Mediterranean coast. We also sequenced the genomes of 99 individuals from present-day Lebanon to catalog modern Levantine genetic diversity. We find that a Bronze Age Canaanite-related ancestry was widespread in the region, shared among urban populations inhabiting the coast (Sidon) and inland populations (Jordan) who likely lived in farming societies or were pastoral nomads. This Canaanite-related ancestry derived from mixture between local Neolithic populations and eastern migrants genetically related to Chalcolithic Iranians. We estimate, using linkage-disequilibrium decay patterns, that admixture occurred 6,600-3,550 years ago, coinciding with recorded massive population movements in Mesopotamia during the mid-Holocene. We show that present-day Lebanese derive most of their ancestry from a Canaanite-related population, which therefore implies substantial genetic continuity in the Levant since at least the Bronze Age. In addition, we find Eurasian ancestry in the Lebanese not present in Bronze Age or earlier Levantines. We estimate that this Eurasian ancestry arrived in the Levant around 3,750-2,170 years ago during a period of successive conquests by distant populations. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of stature from the foot and its segments in a sub-adult female population of North India

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Establishing personal identity is one of the main concerns in forensic investigations. Estimation of stature forms a basic domain of the investigation process in unknown and co-mingled human remains in forensic anthropology case work. The objective of the present study was to set up standards for estimation of stature from the foot and its segments in a sub-adult female population. Methods The sample for the study constituted 149 young females from the Northern part of India. The participants were aged between 13 and 18 years. Besides stature, seven anthropometric measurements that included length of the foot from each toe (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 respectively), foot breadth at ball (BBAL) and foot breadth at heel (BHEL) were measured on both feet in each participant using standard methods and techniques. Results The results indicated that statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between left and right feet occur in both the foot breadth measurements (BBAL and BHEL). Foot length measurements (T1 to T5 lengths) did not show any statistically significant bilateral asymmetry. The correlation between stature and all the foot measurements was found to be positive and statistically significant (p-value < 0.001). Linear regression models and multiple regression models were derived for estimation of stature from the measurements of the foot. The present study indicates that anthropometric measurements of foot and its segments are valuable in the estimation of stature. Foot length measurements estimate stature with greater accuracy when compared to foot breadth measurements. Conclusions The present study concluded that foot measurements have a strong relationship with stature in the sub-adult female population of North India. Hence, the stature of an individual can be successfully estimated from the foot and its segments using different regression models derived in the study. The regression models derived in the study may be applied successfully for the estimation of stature in sub-adult females, whenever foot remains are brought for forensic examination. Stepwise multiple regression models tend to estimate stature more accurately than linear regression models in female sub-adults. PMID:22104433

Estimation of stature from the foot and its segments in a sub-adult female population of North India.

PubMed

Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Passi, Neelam

2011-11-21

Establishing personal identity is one of the main concerns in forensic investigations. Estimation of stature forms a basic domain of the investigation process in unknown and co-mingled human remains in forensic anthropology case work. The objective of the present study was to set up standards for estimation of stature from the foot and its segments in a sub-adult female population. The sample for the study constituted 149 young females from the Northern part of India. The participants were aged between 13 and 18 years. Besides stature, seven anthropometric measurements that included length of the foot from each toe (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 respectively), foot breadth at ball (BBAL) and foot breadth at heel (BHEL) were measured on both feet in each participant using standard methods and techniques. The results indicated that statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between left and right feet occur in both the foot breadth measurements (BBAL and BHEL). Foot length measurements (T1 to T5 lengths) did not show any statistically significant bilateral asymmetry. The correlation between stature and all the foot measurements was found to be positive and statistically significant (p-value < 0.001). Linear regression models and multiple regression models were derived for estimation of stature from the measurements of the foot. The present study indicates that anthropometric measurements of foot and its segments are valuable in the estimation of stature. Foot length measurements estimate stature with greater accuracy when compared to foot breadth measurements. The present study concluded that foot measurements have a strong relationship with stature in the sub-adult female population of North India. Hence, the stature of an individual can be successfully estimated from the foot and its segments using different regression models derived in the study. The regression models derived in the study may be applied successfully for the estimation of stature in sub-adult females, whenever foot remains are brought for forensic examination. Stepwise multiple regression models tend to estimate stature more accurately than linear regression models in female sub-adults.

Age and Mass for 920 Large Magellanic Cloud Clusters Derived from 100 Million Monte Carlo Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, Bogdan; Hanson, M. M.; Elmegreen, Bruce G.

2012-06-01

We present new age and mass estimates for 920 stellar clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) based on previously published broadband photometry and the stellar cluster analysis package, MASSCLEANage. Expressed in the generic fitting formula, d 2 N/dMdtvpropM α t β, the distribution of observed clusters is described by α = -1.5 to -1.6 and β = -2.1 to -2.2. For 288 of these clusters, ages have recently been determined based on stellar photometric color-magnitude diagrams, allowing us to gauge the confidence of our ages. The results look very promising, opening up the possibility that this sample of 920 clusters, with reliable and consistent age, mass, and photometric measures, might be used to constrain important characteristics about the stellar cluster population in the LMC. We also investigate a traditional age determination method that uses a χ2 minimization routine to fit observed cluster colors to standard infinite-mass limit simple stellar population models. This reveals serious defects in the derived cluster age distribution using this method. The traditional χ2 minimization method, due to the variation of U, B, V, R colors, will always produce an overdensity of younger and older clusters, with an underdensity of clusters in the log (age/yr) = [7.0, 7.5] range. Finally, we present a unique simulation aimed at illustrating and constraining the fading limit in observed cluster distributions that includes the complex effects of stochastic variations in the observed properties of stellar clusters.

Harris-Benedict equation estimations of energy needs as compared to measured 24-h energy expenditure by indirect calorimetry in people with early to mid-stage Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Gaba, Ann; Zhang, Kuan; Moskowitz, Carol B; Boozer, Carol N; Marder, Karen

2008-10-01

Weight loss and energy metabolism are important clinical research areas in understanding the disease mechanisms in Huntington's disease. Having an accurate method to estimate expected total energy expenditure would likely facilitate the development of studies about these features of the disease. The Harris-Benedict equation is a formula commonly used to estimate basal energy expenditure of individuals, adjusted for height, weight, age and gender. This estimate is then multiplied by a physical activity factor to estimate total daily energy needs to maintain the given weight. Data from 24-h indirect calorimetry was utilized to derive an adjustment formula for the physical activity factor of the Harris-Benedict equation for 13 early to mid-stage Huntington's disease patients. The adjusted activity factor provided the most accurate estimate of energy needs. This adjusted formula can be used in clinical assessments of Huntington's disease patients, as well as in research studies when indirect calorimetry has not been performed.

Botanical Evidence of the Modern History of Nisqually Glacier, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sigafoos, Robert S.; Hendricks, E.L.

1961-01-01

A knowledge of the areas once occupied by mountain glaciers reveals at least part of the past behavior of these glaciers. From this behavior, inferences of past climate can be drawn. The maximum advance of Nisqually Glacier in the last thousand years was located, and retreat from this point is believed to have started about 1840. The maximum downvalley position of the glacier is marked by either a prominent moraine or by a line of difference between stands of trees of strikingly different size and significantly different age. The thousand-year age of the forest beyond the moraine or line between abutting stands represents the minimum time since the surface was glaciated. This age is based on the age of the oldest trees, plus an estimated interval required for the formation of humus, plus evidence of an ancient fire, plus an interval of deposition of pyroclastics. The estimate of the date when Nisqually Glacier began to retreat from its maximum advance is based upon the ages of the oldest trees plus an interval of 5 years estimated as the time required for the establishment of trees on stable moraines. This interval was derived from a study of the ages of trees growing at locations of known past positions of the glacier. Reconnaissance studies were made on moraines formed by Emmons and Tahoma Glaciers. Preliminary analyses of these data suggest that Emmons Glacier started to recede from its maximum advance in about 1745. Two other upvalley moraines mark positions from which recession started about 1849 and 1896. Ages of trees near Tahoma Glacier indicate that it started to recede from its position of maximum advance in about 1635. About 1835 Tahoma Glacier started to recede again from another moraine formed by a readvance that ter minated near the 1635 position.

Construction of a North American Cancer Survival Index to Measure Progress of Cancer Control Efforts

PubMed Central

Weir, Hannah K; Mariotto, Angela; Wilson, Reda; Nishri, Diane

2017-01-01

Introduction Population-based cancer survival data provide insight into the effectiveness of health care delivery. Comparing survival for all cancer sites combined is challenging, because the primary cancer site and age distribution of patients may differ among areas or change over time. Cancer survival indices (CSIs) are summary measures of survival for cancers of all sites combined and are used in England and Europe to monitor temporal trends and examine geographic differences in survival. We describe the construction of the North American Cancer Survival Index and demonstrate how it can be used to compare survival by geographic area and by race. Methods We used data from 36 US cancer registries to estimate relative survival ratios for people diagnosed with cancer from 2006 through 2012 to create the CSI: the weighted sum of age-standardized, site-specific, relative survival ratios, with weights derived from the distribution of incident cases by sex and primary site from 2006 through 2008. The CSI was calculated for 32 registries for all races, 31 registries for whites, and 12 registries for blacks. Results The survival estimates standardized by age only versus age-, sex-, and site-standardized (CSI) were 64.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 64.1%–64.2%) and 63.9% (95% CI, 63.8%–63.9%), respectively, for the United States for all races combined. The inter-registry ranges in unstandardized and CSI estimates decreased from 12.3% to 5.0% for whites, and from 5.4% to 3.9% for blacks. We found less inter-registry variation in CSI estimates than in unstandardized all-sites survival estimates, but disparities by race persisted. Conclusions CSIs calculated for different jurisdictions or periods are directly comparable, because they are standardized by age, sex, and primary site. A national CSI could be used to measure temporal progress in meeting public health objectives, such as Healthy People 2030. PMID:28910593

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent influenza vaccination in at-risk adults and the elderly: an updated analysis in the U.K.

PubMed

Meier, G; Gregg, M; Poulsen Nautrup, B

2015-01-01

To update an earlier evaluation estimating the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccination (QIV) compared with trivalent influenza vaccination (TIV) in the adult population currently recommended for influenza vaccination in the UK (all people aged ≥65 years and people aged 18-64 years with clinical risk conditions). This analysis takes into account updated vaccine prices, reference costs, influenza strain circulation, and burden of illness data. A lifetime, multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with seven age groups. The model was run in 1-year cycles for a lifetime, i.e., until the youngest patients at entry reached the age of 100 years. The base-case analysis was from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, with a secondary analysis from the societal perspective. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. Herd effects were not included. Inputs were derived from systematic reviews, peer-reviewed articles, and government publications and databases. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base-case, QIV would be expected to avoid 1,413,392 influenza cases, 41,780 hospitalizations, and 19,906 deaths over the lifetime horizon, compared with TIV. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £14,645 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. From the societal perspective, the estimated ICER was £13,497/QALY. A strategy of vaccinating only people aged ≥65 years had an estimated ICER of £11,998/QALY. Sensitivity analysis indicated that only two parameters, seasonal variation in influenza B matching and influenza A circulation, had a substantial effect on the ICER. QIV would be likely to be cost-effective compared with TIV in 68% of simulations with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£20,000/QALY and 87% with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£30,000/QALY. In this updated analysis, QIV was estimated to be cost-effective compared with TIV in the U.K.

Health and healthcare costs and benefits of exercise.

PubMed

Nicholl, J P; Coleman, P; Brazier, J E

1994-02-01

To assess the value of promoting health through exercise, we review what is known about the medical and medical care resource costs and benefits of exercise. Literature searches were undertaken to derive estimates of the relative risk, in individuals who exercise regularly compared with those who do not, of each of the major disease groups for which there is good evidence that the disease can be ameliorated by exercise (coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, hip fracture, and mental illness). These relative risks were used to estimate the incidence of hospital admissions and mortality, and associated healthcare costs, which could be prevented if the whole population exercised. Literature on the incidence and costs of exercise-related morbidity and mortality was also reviewed to derive estimates of both the costs to health and also the healthcare resource implications of exercise in total population. Indirect costs and benefits, and also quality-of-life effects associated with exercise were not included in this assessment. The results show that in younger adults (ages 15 to 44 years) the average annual medical care costs per person that might be incurred as a result of full participation in sport and exercise (approximately 30 pounds British sterling) exceed the costs that might be avoided by the disease-prevention effects of exercise ( less than 5 pounds British sterling per person). However, in older adults ( greater than or equal to 45) the estimated costs avoided ( greater than 30 pounds British sterling per person) greatly outweigh the costs that would be incurred ( less than 10 pounds British sterling). There was little evidence that exercise leads to deferred health or health service resource benefits. We conclude that with regard to health and medical care costs, there are strong economic arguments in favour of exercise in adults aged greater than or equal to 45 but not in younger adults. Estimates derived from the international scientific literature and routine UK data sources may have limited direct application in the healthcare systems of other countries. Nevertheless, the result that exercise costs exceed the benefits in younger adults but vice versa in older people is likely to be generally true. Indeed, a similar result has been found in a study of a Dutch population.

Analytical study to define a helicopter stability derivative extraction method, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molusis, J. A.

1973-01-01

A method is developed for extracting six degree-of-freedom stability and control derivatives from helicopter flight data. Different combinations of filtering and derivative estimate are investigated and used with a Bayesian approach for derivative identification. The combination of filtering and estimate found to yield the most accurate time response match to flight test data is determined and applied to CH-53A and CH-54B flight data. The method found to be most accurate consists of (1) filtering flight test data with a digital filter, followed by an extended Kalman filter (2) identifying a derivative estimate with a least square estimator, and (3) obtaining derivatives with the Bayesian derivative extraction method.

A comparison of food habits and prey preference of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) at three sites in the Russian Far East.

PubMed

Kerley, Linda L; Mukhacheva, Anna S; Matyukhina, Dina S; Salmanova, Elena; Salkina, Galina P; Miquelle, Dale G

2015-07-01

Prey availability is one of the principal drivers of tiger distribution and abundance. Therefore, formulating effective conservation strategies requires a clear understanding of tiger diet. We used scat analysis in combination with data on the abundance of several prey species to estimate Amur tiger diet and preference at 3 sites in the Russian Far East. We also examined the effect of pseudoreplication on estimates of tiger diet. We collected 770 scats across the 3 sites. Similar to previous studies, we found that tigers primarily preyed on medium to large ungulates, with wild boar, roe, sika and red deer collectively comprising 86.7% of total biomass consumed on average. According to Jacobs' index, tigers preferred wild boar, and avoided sika deer. Variation in preference indices derived from these scat analyses compared to indices derived from kill data appear to be due to adjustments in biomass intake when sex-age of a killed individual is known: a component missing from scat data. Pseudoreplication (multiple samples collected from a single kill site) also skewed results derived from scat analyses. Scat analysis still appears useful in providing insight into the diets of carnivores when the full spectrum of prey species needs to be identified, or when sample sizes from kill data are not sufficient. When sample sizes of kill data are large (as is now possible with GPS-collared animals), kill data adjusted by sex-age categories probably provides the most accurate estimates of prey biomass composition. Our results provide further confirmation of the centrality of medium ungulates, in particular wild boar, to Amur tiger diet, and suggest that the protection of this group of species is critical to Amur tiger conservation. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

The impact of green roof ageing on substrate characteristics and hydrological performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De-Ville, Simon; Menon, Manoj; Jia, Xiaodong; Reed, George; Stovin, Virginia

2017-04-01

Green roofs contribute to stormwater management through the retention of rainfall and the detention of runoff. However, there is very limited knowledge concerning the evolution of green roof hydrological performance with system age. This study presents a non-invasive technique which allows for repeatable determination of key substrate characteristics over time, and evaluates the impact of observed substrate changes on hydrological performance. The physical properties of 12 green roof substrate cores have been evaluated using non-invasive X-ray microtomography (XMT) imaging. The cores comprised three replicates of two contrasting substrate types at two different ages: unused virgin samples; and 5-year-old samples from existing green roof test beds. Whilst significant structural differences (density, pore and particle sizes, tortuosity) between virgin and aged samples of a crushed brick substrate were observed, these differences did not significantly affect hydrological characteristics (maximum water holding capacity and saturated hydraulic conductivity). A contrasting substrate based upon a light expanded clay aggregate experienced increases in the number of fine particles and pores over time, which led to increases in maximum water holding capacity of 7%. In both substrates, the saturated hydraulic conductivity estimated from the XMT images was lower in aged compared with virgin samples. Comparisons between physically-derived and XMT-derived substrate hydrological properties showed that similar values and trends in the data were identified, confirming the suitability of the non-invasive XMT technique for monitoring changes in engineered substrates over time. The observed effects of ageing on hydrological performance were modelled as two distinct hydrological processes, retention and detention. Retention performance was determined via a moisture-flux model using physically-derived values of virgin and aged maximum water holding capacity. Increased water holding capacity with age increases the potential for retention performance. However, seasonal variations in retention performance greatly exceed those associated with the observed age-related increases in water holding capacity (+72% vs +7% respectively). Detention performance was determined via an unsaturated-flow finite element model, using van Genuchten parameters and XMT-derived values of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Reduced saturated hydraulic conductivity increases detention performance. For a 1-hour 30-year design storm, the peak runoff was found to be 33% lower for the aged brick-based substrate compared with its virgin counterpart.

Growth rates of young-of-year shovelnose sturgeon in the Upper Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Braaten, P. J.; Fuller, D.B.

2007-01-01

Information on growth during the larval and young-of-year life stages in natural river environments is generally lacking for most sturgeon species. In this study, methods for estimating ages and quantifying growth were developed for field-sampled larval and young-of-year shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus in the upper Missouri River. First, growth was assessed by partitioning samples of young-of-year shovelnose sturgeon into cohorts, and regressing weekly increases in cohort mean length on sampling date. This method quantified relative growth because ages of the cohorts were unknown. Cohort increases in mean length among sampling dates were positively related (P < 0.05, r2 > 0.59 for all cohorts) to sampling date, and yielded growth rate estimates of 0.80–2.95 mm day−1 (2003) and 0.44–2.28 mm day−1 (2004). Highest growth rates occurred in the largest (and earliest spawned) cohorts. Second, a method was developed to estimate cohort hatch dates, thus age on date of sampling could be determined. This method included quantification of post-hatch length increases as a function of water temperature (growth capacity; mm per thermal unit, mm TU−1), and summation of mean daily water temperatures to achieve the required number of thermal units that corresponded to post-hatch lengths of shovelnose sturgeon on sampling dates. For six of seven cohorts of shovelnose sturgeon analyzed, linear growth models (r2 ≥ 0.65, P < 0.0001) or Gompertz growth models (r2 ≥ 0.83, P < 0.0001) quantified length-at-age from hatch through 55 days post-hatch (98–100 mm). Comparisons of length-at-age derived from the growth models indicated that length-at-age was greater for the earlier-hatched cohorts than later-hatched cohorts. Estimated hatch dates for different cohorts were corroborated based on the dates that newly-hatched larval shovelnose sturgeon were sampled in the drift. These results provide the first quantification of growth dynamics for field-sampled age-0 shovelnose sturgeon in a natural river environment, and provide an accurate method for estimating age of wild-caught individuals. Methods of age determination used in this study have applications to sturgeons in other regions, but require additional testing and validation.

Relative crater production rates on planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, W. K.

1977-01-01

The relative numbers of impacts on different planets, estimated from the dynamical histories of planetesimals in specified orbits (Wetherill, 1975), are converted by a described procedure to crater production rates. Conversions are dependent on impact velocity and surface gravity. Crater retention ages can then be derived from the ratio of the crater density to the crater production rate. The data indicate that the terrestrial planets have crater production rates within a factor ten of each other. As an example, for the case of Mars, least-squares fits to crater-count data suggest an average age of 0.3 to 3 billion years for two types of channels. The age of Olympus Mons is discussed, and the effect of Tharsis volcanism on channel formation is considered.

Estimating human exposure to perfluoroalkyl acids via solid food and drinks: Implementation and comparison of different dietary assessment methods.

PubMed

Papadopoulou, Eleni; Poothong, Somrutai; Koekkoek, Jacco; Lucattini, Luisa; Padilla-Sánchez, Juan Antonio; Haugen, Margaretha; Herzke, Dorte; Valdersnes, Stig; Maage, Amund; Cousins, Ian T; Leonards, Pim E G; Småstuen Haug, Line

2017-10-01

Diet is a major source of human exposure to hazardous environmental chemicals, including many perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs). Several assessment methods of dietary exposure to PFAAs have been used previously, but there is a lack of comparisons between methods. To assess human exposure to PFAAs through diet by different methods and compare the results. We studied the dietary exposure to PFAAs in 61 Norwegian adults (74% women, average age: 42 years) using three methods: i) by measuring daily PFAA intakes through a 1-day duplicate diet study (separately in solid and liquid foods), ii) by estimating intake after combining food contamination with food consumption data, as assessed by 2-day weighted food diaries and iii) by a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). We used existing food contamination data mainly from samples purchased in Norway and if not available, data from food purchased in other European countries were used. Duplicate diet samples (n=122) were analysed by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to quantify 15 PFAAs (11 perfluoroalkyl carboxylates and 4 perfluoroalkyl sulfonates). Differences and correlations between measured and estimated intakes were assessed. The most abundant PFAAs in the duplicate diet samples were PFOA, PFOS and PFHxS and the median total intakes were 5.6ng/day, 11ng/day and 0.78ng/day, respectively. PFOS and PFOA concentrations were higher in solid than liquid samples. PFOS was the main contributor to the contamination in the solid samples (median concentration 14pg/g food), while it was PFOA in the liquid samples (median concentrations: 0.72pg/g food). High intakes of fats, oils, and eggs were statistically significantly related to high intakes of PFOS and PFOA from solid foods. High intake of milk and consumption of alcoholic beverages, as well as food in paper container were related to high PFOA intakes from liquid foods. PFOA intakes derived from food diary and FFQ were significantly higher than those derived from duplicate diet, but intakes of PFOS derived from food diary and FFQ were significantly lower than those derived from duplicate diet. We found a positive and statistically significant correlation between the PFOS intakes derived from duplicate diet with those using the food diary (rho=0.26, p-value=0.041), but not with the FFQ. Additionally, PFOA intakes derived by duplicate diet were significantly correlated with estimated intakes from liquid food derived from the food diary (rho=0.34, p=0.008) and estimated intakes from the FFQ (rho=0.25, p-value=0.055). We provide evidence that a food diary or a FFQ-based method can provide comparable intake estimates to PFOS and PFOA intakes derived from a duplicate diet study. These less burdensome methods are valuable and reliable tools to assess dietary exposure to PFASs in human studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of new demi-span equations from a nationally representative sample of older people to estimate adult height.

PubMed

Hirani, Vasant; Aresu, Maria

2012-03-01

To develop new equations for the calculation of body mass index (BMI) of adults aged 65 and older for when an actual height measurement may not be possible or reflect attained height because of loss of height with aging or conditions such as kyphosis or osteoporosis. Cross-sectional, nationally representative samples; data from 1994, 2000 2005, and 2007. Adults aged 65 and older living in England. Two thousand four hundred fifty-four noninstitutitionalized adults aged 65 and older taking part in the Health Survey for England (HSE). Height and demi-span measurements (defined as the distance between the mid-point of the sternal notch and the finger roots with the arm outstretched laterally) were taken according to standard procedures. Sex- and age-specific regression equations were produced from measured height and demi-span (DEH) using HSE 2005 data to develop new DEH equations (DEH(age)) from people aged 65 and older. The derived DEH(age) equation was applied to the HSE data for 1994, 2000, and 2007 to attempt to test its reliability. Analysis showed that DEH(age) predicts current height better than when using the Bassey equation (DEH(B) (assey)). DEH(age) can be used instead of a height measurement to derive other anthropometric indices such as body mass index (BMI) in older people. The new equations developed for predicting current height in older people can be used to calculate BMI more accurately in older people. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Core-halo age gradients and star formation in the Orion Nebula and NGS 2024 young stellar clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Getman, Konstantin V.; Feigelson, Eric D.; Kuhn, Michael A.

2014-06-01

We analyze age distributions of two nearby rich stellar clusters, the NGC 2024 (Flame Nebula) and Orion Nebula cluster (ONC) in the Orion molecular cloud complex. Our analysis is based on samples from the MYStIX survey and a new estimator of pre-main sequence (PMS) stellar ages, Age{sub JX} , derived from X-ray and near-infrared photometric data. To overcome the problem of uncertain individual ages and large spreads of age distributions for entire clusters, we compute median ages and their confidence intervals of stellar samples within annular subregions of the clusters. We find core-halo age gradients in both the NGC 2024more » cluster and ONC: PMS stars in cluster cores appear younger and thus were formed later than PMS stars in cluster peripheries. These findings are further supported by the spatial gradients in the disk fraction and K-band excess frequency. Our age analysis is based on Age{sub JX} estimates for PMS stars and is independent of any consideration of OB stars. The result has important implications for the formation of young stellar clusters. One basic implication is that clusters form slowly and the apparent age spreads in young stellar clusters, which are often controversial, are (at least in part) real. The result further implies that simple models where clusters form inside-out are incorrect and more complex models are needed. We provide several star formation scenarios that alone or in combination may lead to the observed core-halo age gradients.« less

Total Body Capacitance for Estimating Human Basal Metabolic Rate in an Egyptian Population

PubMed Central

M. Abdel-Mageed, Samir; I. Mohamed, Ehab

2016-01-01

Determining basal metabolic rate (BMR) is important for estimating total energy needs in the human being yet, concerns have been raised regarding the suitability of sex-specific equations based on age and weight for its calculation on an individual or population basis. It has been shown that body cell mass (BCM) is the body compartment responsible for BMR. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between total body capacitance (TBC), which is considered as an expression for BCM, and BMR and to develop a formula for calculating BMR in comparison with widely used equations. Fifty healthy nonsmoking male volunteers [mean age (± SD): 24.93 ± 4.15 year and body mass index (BMI): 25.63 ± 3.59 kg/m2] and an equal number of healthy nonsmoking females matched for age and BMI were recruited for the study. TBC and BMR were measured for all participants using octopolar bioelectric impedance analysis and indirect calorimetry techniques, respectively. A significant regressing equation based on the covariates: sex, weight, and TBC for estimating BMR was derived (R=0.96, SEE=48.59 kcal, and P<0.0001), which will be useful for nutritional and health status assessment for both individuals and populations. PMID:27127453

A comparison of the validity of the Demirjian, Willems, Nolla and Häävikko methods in determination of chronological age of 5-15 year-old Indian children.

PubMed

Hegde, Sapna; Patodia, Akash; Dixit, Uma

2017-08-01

Demirjian's method has been the most popular and extensively tested radiographic method of age estimation. More recently, Willems' method has been reported to be a better predictor of age. Nolla's and Häävikko's methods have been used to a lesser extent. Very few studies have compared all four methods in non-Indian and Indian populations. Most Indian research is limited by inadequate sample sizes, age structures and grouping and different approaches to statistical analysis. The present study aimed to evaluate and compare the validity of the Demirjian, Willems, Nolla and Häävikko methods in determination of chronological age of 5 to 15 year-old Indian children. In this cross-sectional observational study, four methods were compared for validity in estimating the age of 1200 Indian children aged 5-15 years. Demirjian's method overestimated age by +0.24 ± 0.80, +0.11 ± 0.81 and +0.19 ± 0.80 years in boys, girls and the total sample, respectively. With Willems' method, overestimations of +0.09 ± 0.80, +0.08 ± 0.80 and +0.09 ± 0.80 years were obtained in boys, girls and the total sample, respectively. Nolla's method underestimated age by -0.13 ± 0.80, -0.30 ± 0.82 and -0.20 ± 0.81 years in boys, girls and the total sample, respectively. Häävikko's method underestimated age by -0.17 ± 0.80, -0.29 ± 0.83 and -0.22 ± 0.82 years in boys, girls and the total sample, respectively. Statistically significant differences were observed between dental and chronological ages with all methods (p < 0.001). Significant gender-based differences were observed with all methods except Willems' (p < 0.05). Gender-specific regression formulae were derived for all methods. Willems' method most accurately estimated age, followed by Demirjian's, Nolla's and Häävikko's methods. All four methods could be applicable for estimating age in the present population, mean prediction errors being lower than 0.30 years (3.6 months). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Integrating travel behavior with land use regression to estimate dynamic air pollution exposure in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Tang, Robert; Tian, Linwei; Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Tsui, Tsz Him; Brauer, Michael; Lee, Martha; Allen, Ryan; Yuchi, Weiran; Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Paulina; Barratt, Benjamin

2018-04-01

Epidemiological studies typically use subjects' residential address to estimate individuals' air pollution exposure. However, in reality this exposure is rarely static as people move from home to work/study locations and commute during the day. Integrating mobility and time-activity data may reduce errors and biases, thereby improving estimates of health risks. To incorporate land use regression with movement and building infiltration data to estimate time-weighted air pollution exposures stratified by age, sex, and employment status for population subgroups in Hong Kong. A large population-representative survey (N = 89,385) was used to characterize travel behavior, and derive time-activity pattern for each subject. Infiltration factors calculated from indoor/outdoor monitoring campaigns were used to estimate micro-environmental concentrations. We evaluated dynamic and static (residential location-only) exposures in a staged modeling approach to quantify effects of each component. Higher levels of exposures were found for working adults and students due to increased mobility. Compared to subjects aged 65 or older, exposures to PM 2.5 , BC, and NO 2 were 13%, 39% and 14% higher, respectively for subjects aged below 18, and 3%, 18% and 11% higher, respectively for working adults. Exposures of females were approximately 4% lower than those of males. Dynamic exposures were around 20% lower than ambient exposures at residential addresses. The incorporation of infiltration and mobility increased heterogeneity in population exposure and allowed identification of highly exposed groups. The use of ambient concentrations may lead to exposure misclassification which introduces bias, resulting in lower effect estimates than 'true' exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating health service utilization for treatment of pneumococcal disease: the case of Brazil.

PubMed

Sartori, A M C; Novaes, C G; de Soárez, P C; Toscano, C M; Novaes, H M D

2013-07-02

Health service utilization (HSU) is an essential component of economic evaluations of health initiatives. Defining HSU for cases of pneumococcal disease (PD) is particularly complex considering the varying clinical manifestations and diverse severity. We describe the process of developing estimates of HSU for PD as part of an economic evaluation of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Brazil. Nationwide inpatient and outpatient HSU by children under-5 years with meningitis (PM), sepsis (PS), non-meningitis non-sepsis invasive PD (NMNS), pneumonia, and acute otitis media (AOM) was estimated. We assumed that all cases of invasive PD (PM, PS, and NMNS) required hospitalization. The study perspective was the health system, including both the public and private sectors. Data sources were obtained from national health information systems, including the Hospital Information System (SIH/SUS) and the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN); surveys; and community-based and health care facility-based studies. We estimated hospitalization rates of 7.69 per 100,000 children under-5 years for PM (21.4 for children <1 years of age and 4.3 for children aged 1-4 years), 5.89 for PS (20.94 and 2.17), and 4.01 for NMNS (5.5 and 3.64) in 2004, with an overall hospitalization rate of 17.59 for all invasive PD (47.27 and 10.11). The estimated incidence rate of all-cause pneumonia was 93.4 per 1000 children under-5 (142.8 for children <1 years of age and 81.2 for children aged 1-4 years), considering both hospital and outpatient care. Secondary data derived from health information systems and the available literature enabled the development of national HSU estimates for PD in Brazil. Estimating HSU for noninvasive disease was challenging, particularly in the case of outpatient care, for which secondary data are scarce. Information for the private sector is lacking in Brazil, but estimates were possible with data from the public sector and national population surveys. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A land-use regression model for estimating microenvironmental diesel exposure given multiple addresses from birth through childhood.

PubMed

Ryan, Patrick H; Lemasters, Grace K; Levin, Linda; Burkle, Jeff; Biswas, Pratim; Hu, Shaohua; Grinshpun, Sergey; Reponen, Tiina

2008-10-01

The Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study (CCAAPS) is a prospective birth cohort whose purpose is to determine if exposure to high levels of diesel exhaust particles (DEP) during early childhood increases the risk for developing allergic diseases. In order to estimate exposure to DEP, a land-use regression (LUR) model was developed using geographic data as independent variables and sampled levels of a marker of DEP as the dependent variable. A continuous wind direction variable was also created. The LUR model predicted 74% of the variability in sampled values with four variables: wind direction, length of bus routes within 300 m of the sample site, a measure of truck intensity within 300 m of the sampling site, and elevation. The LUR model was subsequently applied to all locations where the child had spent more than eight hours per week from through age three. A time-weighted average (TWA) microenvironmental exposure estimate was derived for four time periods: 0-6 months, 7-12 months, 13-24 months, 25-36 months. By age two, one third of the children were spending significant time at locations other than home and by 36 months, 39% of the children had changed their residential addresses. The mean cumulative DEP exposure estimate increased from age 6 to 36 months from 70 to 414 microg/m3-days. Findings indicate that using birth addresses to estimate a child's exposure may result in exposure misclassification for some children who spend a significant amount of time at a location with high exposure to DEP.

Exposure reconstruction for the TCDD-exposed NIOSH cohort using a concentration- and age-dependent model of elimination.

PubMed

Aylward, Lesa L; Brunet, Robert C; Starr, Thomas B; Carrier, Gaétan; Delzell, Elizabeth; Cheng, Hong; Beall, Colleen

2005-08-01

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.

Human biomonitoring reference values for metals and trace elements in blood and urine derived from the Canadian Health Measures Survey 2007-2013.

PubMed

Saravanabhavan, Gurusankar; Werry, Kate; Walker, Mike; Haines, Douglas; Malowany, Morie; Khoury, Cheryl

2017-03-01

Human biomonitoring reference values are statistical estimates that indicate the upper margin of background exposure to a given chemical at a given time. Nationally representative human biomonitoring data on 176 chemicals, including several metals and trace elements, are available in Canada from 2007 to 2013 through the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS). In this work, we used a systematic approach based on the reference interval concept proposed by the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine and the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry to derive reference values (RV 95 s) for metals and trace elements. These RV 95 s were derived for blood and urine matrices in the general Canadian population based on the latest biomonitoring data from the CHMS. Biomarkers were chosen based on specific selection criteria, including widespread detection in Canadians (≥66% detection rate). Reference populations were created for each biomarker by applying appropriate exclusion criteria. Age and sex were evaluated as possible partitioning criteria and separate RV 95 s were derived for the sub-populations in cases where partitioning was deemed necessary. The RV 95 s for metals and trace elements in blood ranged from 0.18μg/L for cadmium in young children aged 3-5 years to 7900μg/L for zinc in males aged 20-79 years. In the case of urinary biomarkers, the RV 95 s ranged from 0.17μg/L for antimony in the total population aged 3-79 years to 1400mg/L for fluoride in adults aged 20-79 years. These RV 95 s represent the first set of reference values for metals and trace elements in the general Canadian population. We compare the RV 95 s from other countries where available and discuss factors that could influence such comparisons. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Measuring disease prevalence: a comparison of musculoskeletal disease using four general practice consultation databases

PubMed Central

Jordan, Kelvin; Clarke, Alexandra M; Symmons, Deborah PM; Fleming, Douglas; Porcheret, Mark; Kadam, Umesh T; Croft, Peter

2007-01-01

Background Primary care consultation data are an important source of information on morbidity prevalence. It is not known how reliable such figures are. Aim To compare annual consultation prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal conditions derived from four general practice consultation databases. Design of study Retrospective study of general practice consultation records. Setting Three national general practice consultation databases: i) Fourth Morbidity Statistics from General Practice (MSGP4, 1991/92), ii) Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service (RCGP WRS, 2001), and iii) General Practice Research Database (GPRD, 1991 and 2001); and one regional database (Consultations in Primary Care Archive, 2001). Method Age-sex standardised persons consulting annual prevalence rates for musculoskeletal conditions overall, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and arthralgia were derived for patients aged 15 years and over. Results GPRD prevalence of any musculoskeletal condition, rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis was lower than that of the other databases. This is likely to be due to GPs not needing to record every consultation made for a chronic condition. MSGP4 gave the highest prevalence for osteoarthritis but low prevalence of arthralgia which reflects encouragement for GPs to use diagnostic rather than symptom codes. Conclusion Considerable variation exists in consultation prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal conditions. Researchers and health service planners should be aware that estimates of disease occurrence based on consultation will be influenced by choice of database. This is likely to be true for other chronic diseases and where alternative symptom labels exist for a disease. RCGP WRS may give the most reliable prevalence figures for musculoskeletal and other chronic diseases. PMID:17244418

Prediction of 30-year risk for cardiovascular mortality by fitness and risk factor levels: the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Wickramasinghe, Chanaka D; Ayers, Colby R; Das, Sandeep; de Lemos, James A; Willis, Benjamin L; Berry, Jarett D

2014-07-01

Fitness and traditional risk factors have well-known associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD) death in both short-term (10 years) and across the remaining lifespan. However, currently available short-term and long-term risk prediction tools do not incorporate measured fitness. We included 16 533 participants from the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study (CCLS) without prior CVD. Fitness was measured using the Balke protocol. Sex-specific fitness levels were derived from the Balke treadmill times and categorized into low, intermediate, and high fit according to age- and sex-specific treadmill times. Sex-specific 30-year risk estimates for CVD death adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death were estimated using the cause-specific hazards model and included age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fitness, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, and smoking. During a median follow-up period of 28 years, there were 1123 CVD deaths. The 30-year risk estimates for CVD mortality derived from the cause-specific hazards model demonstrated overall good calibration (Nam-D'Agostino χ(2) [men, P=0.286; women, P=0.664] and discrimination (c statistic; men, 0.81 [0.80-0.82] and women, 0.86 [0.82-0.91]). Across all risk factor strata, the presence of low fitness was associated with a greater 30-year risk for CVD death. Fitness represents an important additional covariate in 30-year risk prediction functions that may serve as a useful tool in clinical practice. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Racial/ethnic disparities in provision of dental procedures to children enrolled in Delta Dental insurance in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Bhagavatula, Pradeep; Xiang, Qun; Eichmiller, Fredrick; Szabo, Aniko; Okunseri, Christopher

2014-01-01

Most studies on the provision of dental procedures have focused on Medicaid enrollees known to have inadequate access to dental care. Little information on private insurance enrollees exists. This study documents the rates of preventive, restorative, endodontic, and surgical dental procedures provided to children enrolled in Delta Dental of Wisconsin (DDWI) in Milwaukee. We analyzed DDWI claims data for Milwaukee children aged 0-18 years between 2002 and 2008. We linked the ZIP codes of enrollees to the 2000 U.S. Census information to derive racial/ethnic estimates in the different ZIP codes. We estimated the rates of preventive, restorative, endodontic, and surgical procedures provided to children in different racial/ethnic groups based on the population estimates derived from the U.S. Census data. Descriptive and multivariable analysis was done using Poisson regression modeling on dental procedures per year. In 7 years, a total of 266,380 enrollees were covered in 46 ZIP codes in the database. Approximately, 64 percent, 44 percent, and 49 percent of White, African American, and Hispanic children had at least one dental visit during the study period, respectively. The rates of preventive procedures increased up to the age of 9 years and decreased thereafter among children in all three racial groups included in the analysis. African American and Hispanic children received half as many preventive procedures as White children. Our study shows that substantial racial disparities may exist in the types of dental procedures that were received by children. © 2012 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient’s clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller patients. However, the overall risk of cancer incidence attributable to the CT examination was much higher for the newborn (2.4 in 1000) than for the teenager (0.7 in 1000). For the two pediatric-aged patients in our study, CTDIvol underestimated dose to large organs in the scan coverage by 30%–48%. The effective dose derived from DLP using published conversion coefficients differed from that calculated using patient-specific organ dose values by −57% to 13%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 60 were used, and by −63% to 28%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 103 were used. Conclusions: It is possible to estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations by combining a validated Monte Carlo program with patient-specific anatomical models that are derived from the patients’ clinical CT data and supplemented by transformed models of reference adults. With the construction of a large library of patient-specific computer models encompassing patients of all ages and weight percentiles, dose and risk can be estimated for any patient prior to or after a CT examination. Such information may aid in decisions for image utilization and can further guide the design and optimization of CT technologies and scan protocols. PMID:21361209

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul

2011-01-15

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GEmore » Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller patients. However, the overall risk of cancer incidence attributable to the CT examination was much higher for the newborn (2.4 in 1000) than for the teenager (0.7 in 1000). For the two pediatric-aged patients in our study, CTDI{sub vol} underestimated dose to large organs in the scan coverage by 30%-48%. The effective dose derived from DLP using published conversion coefficients differed from that calculated using patient-specific organ dose values by -57% to 13%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 60 were used, and by -63% to 28%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 103 were used. Conclusions: It is possible to estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations by combining a validated Monte Carlo program with patient-specific anatomical models that are derived from the patients' clinical CT data and supplemented by transformed models of reference adults. With the construction of a large library of patient-specific computer models encompassing patients of all ages and weight percentiles, dose and risk can be estimated for any patient prior to or after a CT examination. Such information may aid in decisions for image utilization and can further guide the design and optimization of CT technologies and scan protocols.« less

Objective estimation of tropical cyclone innercore surface wind structure using infrared satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Changjiang; Dai, Lijie; Ma, Leiming; Qian, Jinfang; Yang, Bo

2017-10-01

An objective technique is presented for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) innercore two-dimensional (2-D) surface wind field structure using infrared satellite imagery and machine learning. For a TC with eye, the eye contour is first segmented by a geodesic active contour model, based on which the eye circumference is obtained as the TC eye size. A mathematical model is then established between the eye size and the radius of maximum wind obtained from the past official TC report to derive the 2-D surface wind field within the TC eye. Meanwhile, the composite information about the latitude of TC center, surface maximum wind speed, TC age, and critical wind radii of 34- and 50-kt winds can be combined to build another mathematical model for deriving the innercore wind structure. After that, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and linear regression are introduced, respectively, in the two mathematical models, which are then tested with sensitivity experiments on real TC cases. Verification shows that the innercore 2-D surface wind field structure estimated by LSSVM is better than that of RBFNN and linear regression.

The Baade-Wesselink method applied to field RR Lyrae stars. III - YZ Capricorni, RV Phoenicis, and V440 Sagittarii

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cacciari, C.; Clementini, G.; Buser, R.

1989-01-01

Application of the Baade-Wesselink method to three field RR Lyrae variables reveals evidence of shock waves in the atmospheres of RV Phe and V440 Sgr (but not YZ Cap) during maximum light. The results yield distance moduli of 24.21 + or - 0.20 for M31, 18.26 + or - 0.20 for the LMC, and 18.85 + or - 0.20 for the SMC. Using the Sandage (1982) age/turn-off luminosity relationship of VandenBerg and Bell (1985), estimated ages of 18.8 Gyr for M92 and of 15.7 Gyr for 47 Tuc are derived.

Use of transesophageal Doppler ultrasonography in ventilated pediatric patients: derivation of cardiac output.

PubMed

Tibby, S M; Hatherill, M; Murdoch, I A

2000-06-01

To ascertain if cardiac output (CO) could be derived from blood flow velocity measured in the descending aorta of ventilated children by transesophageal Doppler ultrasonography (TED) without the need for direct aortic cross sectional area measurement, and to evaluate the ability of TED to follow changes in CO when compared with femoral artery thermodilution. Prospective, comparison study. A 16-bed pediatric intensive care unit of a university hospital. A total of 100 ventilated infants and children aged 4 days to 18 yrs (median age, 27 months). Diagnoses included postcardiac surgery (n = 58), sepsis/multiple organ failure (n = 32), respiratory disease (n = 5), and other (n = 5). A total of 55 patients were receiving inotropes or vasodilators. When patients were hemodynamically stable, a TED probe was placed into the distal esophagus to obtain optimal signal, and minute distance (MD) was recorded. Five consecutive MD measurements were made concurrently with five femoral artery thermodilution measurements, and the concurrent measurements were averaged. CO was then manipulated by fluid administration or inotrope adjustment, and the readings were repeated. Femoral artery thermodilution CO ranged from 0.32 to 9.19 L/min, (median, 2.46 L/min), and encompassed a wide range of high and low flow states. Theoretical consideration revealed the optimal TED estimate for CO to be (MD x patient height2 x 10(-7)). Linear regression analysis yielded a power function model such that: estimated CO = 1.158 x (MD x height2 x 10(-7))(0.785), r2 = 0.879, standard error of the estimate = 0.266. Inclusion of a correction factor for potential changes in aortic cross-sectional area with hypo- and hypertension did not appreciably improve the predictive value of the model. MD was able to follow percentage changes in CO, giving a mean bias of 0.87% (95% confidence interval -0.85% to 2.59%), and limits of agreement of +/- 16.82%. The median coefficient of variation for MD was 3.3%. TED provides a clinically accurate estimate of CO across the entire pediatric age range and is able to follow changes in CO.

PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. XII. MAPPING STELLAR METALLICITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN M31

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregersen, Dylan; Seth, Anil C.; Williams, Benjamin F.

We present a study of spatial variations in the metallicity of old red giant branch stars in the Andromeda galaxy. Photometric metallicity estimates are derived by interpolating isochrones for over seven million stars in the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey. This is the first systematic study of stellar metallicities over the inner 20 kpc of Andromeda’s galactic disk. We see a clear metallicity gradient of −0.020 ± 0.004 dex kpc{sup −1} from ∼4–20 kpc assuming a constant red giant branch age. This metallicity gradient is derived after correcting for the effects of photometric bias and completeness and dust extinction, and ismore » quite insensitive to these effects. The unknown age gradient in M31's disk creates the dominant systematic uncertainty in our derived metallicity gradient. However, spectroscopic analyses of galaxies similar to M31 show that they typically have small age gradients that make this systematic error comparable to the 1σ error on our metallicity gradient measurement. In addition to the metallicity gradient, we observe an asymmetric local enhancement in metallicity at radii of 3–6 kpc that appears to be associated with Andromeda’s elongated bar. This same region also appears to have an enhanced stellar density and velocity dispersion.« less

Modeling of live-birth rates and cost-effectiveness of oocyte cryopreservation for cancer patients prior to high- and low-risk gonadotoxic chemotherapy.

PubMed

Lyttle Schumacher, B; Grover, N; Mesen, T; Steiner, A; Mersereau, J

2017-10-01

What is the live-birth rate (LBR) and cost-effectiveness of fertility preservation with oocyte cryopreservation (FP-OC) compared to expectant management in cancer patients age 25-40 based on estimated gonadotoxicity of treatments 5 years after cancer diagnosis? Oocyte cryopreservation prior to cancer treatment is more costly, yet more effective (producing more live births), than not undergoing oocyte cryopreservation but it is most beneficial for patients undergoing high-risk chemotherapy (HRC). The decision to undergo FP prior to treatment is multifactorial and can be costly and delay treatment. Not all treatments carry the same gonadotoxicity and patients may choose to undergo FP-OC based on the probability of premature ovarian insufficiency, predicted outcomes and cost. A comprehensive model that incorporates age at diagnosis and toxicity of treatment to help guide patients in the decision to undergo FP-OC does not yet exist. This study used a Decision Analysis Model to estimate effectiveness and cost of FP for cancer patients. Age-based estimates of LBR and cost per live birth were calculated for ages 25-40 years based on gonadotoxicity of treatment. A decision analysis model was constructed using Treeage Pro 2015 with case base probabilities derived from national registries, practice guidelines and medical records from a national network of infertility practices (IntegraMed). Compared to no FP-OC, FP-OC improved LBRs for women of all ages undergoing either low-risk chemotherapy (LRC) or HRC; however, it was most cost effective for women undergoing LRC at older ages or HRC at younger ages. Although FP-OC results in higher LBRs, it was always more costly. Using donor oocyte IVF can be a successful alternative to autologous FP-OC. Decision tree results reflect probabilities of certain events and are compiled from multiple reputable sources but are not directly derived from a recruited cohort of patients. Outcomes are based on United States estimates and should be interpreted in the broader context of individual patient diagnoses, treatment care plans and country of origin. The development of this analytic model will help guide practitioners in their counseling of women from age 25 to 40 years, who are considering FP-OC at the time of cancer diagnosis. It provides a realistic pathway from diagnosis to LB and accounts for the majority of costs and outcome possibilities. This study was partially funded by a grant from National Institute of Health (NIH)/National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) (R01 HD67683) to A.Z.S. There are no conflicts of interest to declare. N/A. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

New pharmacist supply projections: lower separation rates and increased graduates boost supply estimates.

PubMed

Knapp, Katherine K; Cultice, James M

2007-01-01

To revise the 2000 Bureau of Health Professions Pharmacist Supply Model based on new data. Stock-flow model. United States. A 2004 estimate of active pharmacists reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was used to derive the base count for the 2007 supply model. Starting with a 2004 base of active pharmacists, new graduates are added to the supply annually and losses resulting from death and retirement are subtracted. Age- and gender-based pharmacist supply estimates, 2004-2020. Increased U.S. pharmacist supply estimates (236,227 in 2007 to 304,986 in 2020) indicate that pharmacists will remain the third largest professional health group behind nurses and physicians. Increases were driven by longer persistence in the workforce (59%), increased numbers of U.S. graduates (35%), and increases from international pharmacy graduates (IPGs) achieving U.S. licensure (6%). Since more pharmacists are expected to be working part time the full-time equivalent (FTE) supply will be reduced by about 15%. The mean age of pharmacists was projected to decline from 47 to 43 by 2020. Because of unequal distribution across age groups, large pharmacist cohorts approaching retirement age will result in fewer pharmacists available to replace them. The ratio of pharmacists to the over-65 population is expected to decrease after 2011 and continue to fall beyond 2020; this is likely a reflection of baby boomers passing through older age cohorts. The revised estimated active U.S. pharmacist head count in 2006 is 232,597, with equivalent FTEs totaling approximately 198,000. The substantial increase over the 2000 pharmacist supply model estimates is primarily attributable to pharmacists remaining in the workforce longer and educational expansion. U.S. licensed IPGs account for less than 6% of overall increases. The pharmacist work-force is projected to become younger on average by about 4 years by 2020. Coincident demands for more physicians and nurses over the same period and shortages in all three professions stipulate that active steps be taken, including continued monitoring of work trends among pharmacists and other health professionals.

Relationships between age and dental attrition in Australian aboriginals.

PubMed

Richards, L C; Miller, S L

1991-02-01

Tooth wear scores (ratios of exposed dentin to total crown area) were calculated from dental casts of Australian Aboriginal subjects of known age from three populations. Linear regression equations relating attrition scores to age were derived. The slope of the regression line reflects the rate of tooth wear, and the intercept is related to the timing of first exposure of dentin. Differences in morphology between anterior and posterior teeth are reflected in a linear relationship between attrition scores and age for anterior teeth but a logarithmic relationship for posterior teeth. Correlations between age and attrition range from less than 0.40 for third molars (where differences in the eruption and occlusion of the teeth resulted in different patterns of wear) to greater than 0.80 for the premolars and first molars. Because of the generally high correlations between age and attrition, it is possible to estimate age from the extent of tooth wear with confidence limits of the order of +/- 10 years.

Spot urine and 24-h diet recall estimates of dietary sodium intake from the 2008/09 New Zealand Adult Nutrition Survey: a comparison.

PubMed

McLean, Rachael M; Williams, Sheila M; Te Morenga, Lisa A; Mann, Jim I

2018-05-22

We aimed to test the difference between estimates of dietary sodium intake using 24-h diet recall and spot urine collection in a large sample of New Zealand adults. We analysed spot urine results, 24-h diet recall, dietary habits questionnaire and anthropometry from a representative sample of 3312 adults aged 15 years and older who participated in the 2008/09 New Zealand Adult Nutrition Survey. Estimates of adult population sodium intake were derived from 24-h diet recall and spot urine sodium using a formula derived from analysis of INTERSALT data. Correlations, limits of agreement and mean difference were calculated for the total sample, and for population subgroups. Estimated total population 24-h urinary sodium excretion (mean (95% CI)) from spot urine samples was 3035 mg (2990, 3079); 3612 mg (3549, 3674) for men and 2507 mg (2466, 2548) for women. Estimated mean usual daily sodium intake from 24-h diet recall data (excluding salt added at the table) was 2564 mg (2519, 2608); 2849 mg (2779, 2920) for men and 2304 mg (2258, 2350) for women. Correlations between estimates were poor, especially for men, and limits of agreement using Bland-Altman mean difference analysis were wide. There is a poor agreement between estimates of individual sodium intake from spot urine collection and those from 24-hour diet recall. Although, both 24-hour dietary recall and estimated urinary excretion based on spot urine indicate mean population sodium intake is greater than 2 g, significant differences in mean intake by method deserve further investigation in relation to the gold standard, 24-hour urinary sodium excretion.

A Global Assessment of Oceanic Heat Loss: Conductive Cooling and Hydrothermal Redistribution of Heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasterok, D. P.; Chapman, D. S.; Davis, E. E.

2011-12-01

A new dataset of ~15000 oceanic heat flow measurements is analyzed to determine the conductive heat loss through the seafloor. Many heat flow values in seafloor younger than 60 Ma are lower than predicted by models of conductively cooled lithosphere. This heat flow deficit is caused by ventilated hydrothermal circulation discharging at crustal outcrops or through thin sedimentary cover. Globally filtering of heat flow data to retain sites with sediment cover >400 m thick and located >60 km from the nearest seamount minimizes the effect of hydrothermal ventilation. Filtered heat flow exhibit a much higher correlation coefficient with seafloor age (up to 0.95 for filtered data in contrast to 0.5 for unfiltered data) and lower variability (reduction by 30%) within an age bin. A small heat flow deficit still persists at ages <25 Ma, possibly as a result of global filtering limitations and incomplete thermal rebound following sediment burial. Detailed heat flow surveys co-located with seismic data can identify environments favoring conductive heat flow; heat flow collected in these environments is higher than that determined by the global dataset, and is more consistent with conductive cooling of the lithosphere. The new filtered data analysis and a growing number of site specific surveys both support estimates of global heat loss in the range 40-47 TW. The estimated hydrothermal deficit is consistent with estimates from geochemical studies ~7 TW, but is a few TW lower than previous estimates derived from heat flow determinations.

Geochemical and VOC-constraints on landfill gas age and attenuation characteristics: A case study from a waste disposal facility in Southern California.

PubMed

Hagedorn, Benjamin; Kerfoot, Henry B; Verwiel, Mark; Matlock, Bruce

2016-07-01

In this study, a multi-tracer approach was applied to a complex, methane-impacted site in Southern California to (1) distinguish between natural gas and landfill gas (LFG)-derived methane impacts at site perimeter gas probes, (2) estimate the relative age of the LFG at these probes, and (3) document natural attenuation trends during a 3-year monitoring period. Relationships between methane and ethane values suggest that at the majority of probes, methane is from LFG and not from natural gas and that the relative contribution of LFG methane at these probes has increased over the monitoring period. To evaluate whether LFG is attenuating in the subsurface, the relative age of LFG was estimated by comparing readily degraded VOCs that are major constituents in LFG (toluene in this case) with those resistant to degradation (Freons). Time-series data trends are consistent with several probes being impacted by fresh LFG from recent releases that occurred after the update of the local LFG collection and control system (LFGCCS). Data further indicate some probes to be only affected by legacy LFG from a past release that occurred prior to the LFGCCS update and that, because of a lack of oxygen in the subsurface, had not been fully degraded. The outlined attenuation evaluation methodology is potentially applicable to other sites or even groundwater contaminants; however, the assessment is limited by the degree of homogeneity of the LFG source composition and non-LFG-derived toluene inputs to the analyzed samples. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Wind-Driven Erosion and Exposure Potential at Mars 2020 Rover Candidate-Landing Sites.

PubMed

Chojnacki, Matthew; Banks, Maria; Urso, Anna

2018-02-01

Aeolian processes have likely been the predominant geomorphic agent for most of Mars' history and have the potential to produce relatively young exposure ages for geologic units. Thus, identifying local evidence for aeolian erosion is highly relevant to the selection of landing sites for future missions, such as the Mars 2020 Rover mission that aims to explore astrobiologically relevant ancient environments. Here we investigate wind-driven activity at eight Mars 2020 candidate-landing sites to constrain erosion potential at these locations. To demonstrate our methods, we found that contemporary dune-derived abrasion rates were in agreement with rover-derived exhumation rates at Gale crater and could be employed elsewhere. The Holden crater candidate site was interpreted to have low contemporary erosion rates, based on the presence of a thick sand coverage of static ripples. Active ripples at the Eberswalde and southwest Melas sites may account for local erosion and the dearth of small craters. Moderate-flux regional dunes near Mawrth Vallis were deemed unrepresentative of the candidate site, which is interpreted to currently be experiencing low levels of erosion. The Nili Fossae site displayed the most unambiguous evidence for local sand transport and erosion, likely yielding relatively young exposure ages. The downselected Jezero crater and northeast Syrtis sites had high-flux neighboring dunes and exhibited substantial evidence for sediment pathways across their ellipses. Both sites had relatively high estimated abrasion rates, which would yield young exposure ages. The downselected Columbia Hills site lacked evidence for sand movement, and contemporary local erosion rates are estimated to be relatively low.

Wind-Driven Erosion and Exposure Potential at Mars 2020 Rover Candidate-Landing Sites

PubMed Central

Chojnacki, Matthew; Banks, Maria; Urso, Anna

2018-01-01

Aeolian processes have likely been the predominant geomorphic agent for most of Mars’ history and have the potential to produce relatively young exposure ages for geologic units. Thus, identifying local evidence for aeolian erosion is highly relevant to the selection of landing sites for future missions, such as the Mars 2020 Rover mission that aims to explore astrobiologically relevant ancient environments. Here we investigate wind-driven activity at eight Mars 2020 candidate-landing sites to constrain erosion potential at these locations. To demonstrate our methods, we found that contemporary dune-derived abrasion rates were in agreement with rover-derived exhumation rates at Gale crater and could be employed elsewhere. The Holden crater candidate site was interpreted to have low contemporary erosion rates, based on the presence of a thick sand coverage of static ripples. Active ripples at the Eberswalde and southwest Melas sites may account for local erosion and the dearth of small craters. Moderate-flux regional dunes near Mawrth Vallis were deemed unrepresentative of the candidate site, which is interpreted to currently be experiencing low levels of erosion. The Nili Fossae site displayed the most unambiguous evidence for local sand transport and erosion, likely yielding relatively young exposure ages. The downselected Jezero crater and northeast Syrtis sites had high-flux neighboring dunes and exhibited substantial evidence for sediment pathways across their ellipses. Both sites had relatively high estimated abrasion rates, which would yield young exposure ages. The downselected Columbia Hills site lacked evidence for sand movement, and contemporary local erosion rates are estimated to be relatively low. PMID:29568719

Wind-Driven Erosion and Exposure Potential at Mars 2020 Rover Candidate-Landing Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chojnacki, Matthew; Banks, Maria; Urso, Anna

2018-02-01

Aeolian processes have likely been the predominant geomorphic agent for most of Mars' history and have the potential to produce relatively young exposure ages for geologic units. Thus, identifying local evidence for aeolian erosion is highly relevant to the selection of landing sites for future missions, such as the Mars 2020 Rover mission that aims to explore astrobiologically relevant ancient environments. Here we investigate wind-driven activity at eight Mars 2020 candidate-landing sites to constrain erosion potential at these locations. To demonstrate our methods, we found that contemporary dune-derived abrasion rates were in agreement with rover-derived exhumation rates at Gale crater and could be employed elsewhere. The Holden crater candidate site was interpreted to have low contemporary erosion rates, based on the presence of a thick sand coverage of static ripples. Active ripples at the Eberswalde and southwest Melas sites may account for local erosion and the dearth of small craters. Moderate-flux regional dunes near Mawrth Vallis were deemed unrepresentative of the candidate site, which is interpreted to currently be experiencing low levels of erosion. The Nili Fossae site displayed the most unambiguous evidence for local sand transport and erosion, likely yielding relatively young exposure ages. The downselected Jezero crater and northeast Syrtis sites had high-flux neighboring dunes and exhibited substantial evidence for sediment pathways across their ellipses. Both sites had relatively high estimated abrasion rates, which would yield young exposure ages. The downselected Columbia Hills site lacked evidence for sand movement, and contemporary local erosion rates are estimated to be relatively low.

[Carbon storage of forest stands in Shandong Province estimated by forestry inventory data].

PubMed

Li, Shi-Mei; Yang, Chuan-Qiang; Wang, Hong-Nian; Ge, Li-Qiang

2014-08-01

Based on the 7th forestry inventory data of Shandong Province, this paper estimated the carbon storage and carbon density of forest stands, and analyzed their distribution characteristics according to dominant tree species, age groups and forest category using the volume-derived biomass method and average-biomass method. In 2007, the total carbon storage of the forest stands was 25. 27 Tg, of which the coniferous forests, mixed conifer broad-leaved forests, and broad-leaved forests accounted for 8.6%, 2.0% and 89.4%, respectively. The carbon storage of forest age groups followed the sequence of young forests > middle-aged forests > mature forests > near-mature forests > over-mature forests. The carbon storage of young forests and middle-aged forests accounted for 69.3% of the total carbon storage. Timber forest, non-timber product forest and protection forests accounted for 37.1%, 36.3% and 24.8% of the total carbon storage, respectively. The average carbon density of forest stands in Shandong Province was 10.59 t x hm(-2), which was lower than the national average level. This phenomenon was attributed to the imperfect structure of forest types and age groups, i. e., the notably higher percentage of timber forests and non-timber product forest and the excessively higher percentage of young forests and middle-aged forest than mature forests.

Age gradients in the stellar populations of massive star forming regions based on a new stellar chronometer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Getman, Konstantin V.; Feigelson, Eric D.; Kuhn, Michael A.

2014-06-01

A major impediment to understanding star formation in massive star-forming regions (MSFRs) is the absence of a reliable stellar chronometer to unravel their complex star formation histories. We present a new estimation of stellar ages using a new method that employs near-infrared (NIR) and X-ray photometry, Age {sub JX} . Stellar masses are derived from X-ray luminosities using the L{sub X} -M relation from the Taurus cloud. J-band luminosities are compared to mass-dependent pre-main-sequence (PMS) evolutionary models to estimate ages. Age {sub JX} is sensitive to a wide range of evolutionary stages, from disk-bearing stars embedded in a cloud tomore » widely dispersed older PMS stars. The Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray (MYStIX) project characterizes 20 OB-dominated MSFRs using X-ray, mid-infrared, and NIR catalogs. The Age {sub JX} method has been applied to 5525 out of 31,784 MYStIX Probable Complex Members. We provide a homogeneous set of median ages for over 100 subclusters in 15 MSFRs; median subcluster ages range between 0.5 Myr and 5 Myr. The important science result is the discovery of age gradients across MYStIX regions. The wide MSFR age distribution appears as spatially segregated structures with different ages. The Age {sub JX} ages are youngest in obscured locations in molecular clouds, intermediate in revealed stellar clusters, and oldest in distributed populations. The NIR color index J – H, a surrogate measure of extinction, can serve as an approximate age predictor for young embedded clusters.« less

Flight data identification of six degree-of-freedom stability and control derivatives of a large crane type helicopter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tomaine, R. L.

1976-01-01

Flight test data from a large 'crane' type helicopter were collected and processed for the purpose of identifying vehicle rigid body stability and control derivatives. The process consisted of using digital and Kalman filtering techniques for state estimation and Extended Kalman filtering for parameter identification, utilizing a least squares algorithm for initial derivative and variance estimates. Data were processed for indicated airspeeds from 0 m/sec to 152 m/sec. Pulse, doublet and step control inputs were investigated. Digital filter frequency did not have a major effect on the identification process, while the initial derivative estimates and the estimated variances had an appreciable effect on many derivative estimates. The major derivatives identified agreed fairly well with analytical predictions and engineering experience. Doublet control inputs provided better results than pulse or step inputs.

Using performance indicators to monitor attendance at the Broken Hill blood lead screening clinic.

PubMed

Boreland, Frances; Lyle, David

2009-04-01

Although the average blood lead level of 1-4-year-old children in Broken Hill has halved since 1991, about 1 in 5 still have blood lead levels higher than the national target (<10 microg/dL). The estimated proportion of children attending the Lead Clinic has declined, to approximately 42% in 2006, raising concern that some children with elevated blood lead levels may not be presenting, thus missing out on appropriate treatment and advice. The aim of this study was to describe patterns of attendance at the clinic as a first step to understanding what factors contribute to clinic attendance and non-attendance. Routinely collected data from the Lead Clinic database were used to describe the impact of factors such as child age, the lead-risk area in which they live, seasonal influences and specific promotional activities on clinic attendance rates from 1999 to June 2007. Estimates of the number of children living in each of the five lead-risk areas were derived from 2001 and 2006 census data and estimates of the number of children born to mothers resident in Broken Hill were derived from the Midwives Data Collection. Attendance rates declined by approximately one-third during the study period. Younger children, and those living closer to the central mining area, were more likely to attend for blood lead screening. Cohort analysis indicated cumulative attendance has declined, with children born in 2005 having a cumulative incidence at 18 months of age 5-10% lower than that for previous birth cohorts. The majority (54%) of children who developed a notifiable blood lead level (15 microg/dL) were first detected at 2 years of age or older, a number of whom (40%) had no recorded tests before the age of 2 years. The analysis has demonstrated the benefits of using an expanded set of performance indicators to monitor the blood lead screening programme. It provides valuable additional information about the reach of the programme. Next steps include seeking additional feedback from carers and the broader community, developing a strategy to increase screening and monitoring the effectiveness of efforts to reinvigorate the lead management programme.

Revised stratigraphy of Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, and new age estimates of its fossil mammals, including hominins.

PubMed

Gathogo, Patrick N; Brown, Francis H

2006-11-01

Recent geologic study shows that all hominins and nearly all other published mammalian fossils from Paleontological Collection Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, derive from levels between the KBS Tuff (1.87+/-0.02 Ma) and the Lower Ileret Tuff (1.53+/-0.01 Ma). More specifically, the fossils derive from 53 m of section below the Lower Ileret Tuff, an interval in which beds vary markedly laterally, especially those units containing molluscs and algal stromatolites. The upper Burgi Member (approximately 2.00-1.87 Ma) crops out only in the southwestern part of Area 123. Adjacent Area 110 contains larger exposures of the member, and there the KBS Tuff is preserved as an airfall ash in lacustrine deposits and also as a fluvially redeposited ash. We observed no mammalian fossils in situ in this member in Area 123, but surface specimens have been documented in some monographic treatments. Fossil hominins from Area 123 were attributed to strata above the KBS Tuff in the 1970s, but later they were assigned to strata below the KBS Tuff (now called the upper Burgi Member). This study definitively places the Area 123 hominins in the KBS Member. Most of these hominins are between 1.60 and 1.65 myr in age, but the youngest may date to only 1.53 Ma, and the oldest, to 1.75 Ma. All are 0.15-0.30 myr younger than previously estimated. The new age estimates, in conjunction with published taxonomic attributions of fossils, suggest that at least two species of Homo coexisted in the region along with A. boisei until at least 1.65 Ma. Comparison of crania KNM-ER 1813 and KNM-ER 1470, which were believed to be of comparable age, is at the focus of the debate over whether Homo habilis sensu lato is in fact composed of two species: Homo habilis and Homo rudolfensis. These two crania are separated in time by approximately 0.25 myr, and therefore, arguments for their conspecificity no longer need to confront the issue of unusually high contemporaneous variation within a single species.

A Unified tool to estimate Distances, Ages, and Masses (UniDAM) from spectrophotometric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mints, Alexey; Hekker, Saskia

2017-08-01

Context. Galactic archaeology, the study of the formation and evolution of the Milky Way by reconstructing its past from its current constituents, requires precise and accurate knowledge of stellar parameters for as many stars as possible. To achieve this, a number of large spectroscopic surveys have been undertaken and are still ongoing. Aims: So far consortia carrying out the different spectroscopic surveys have used different tools to determine stellar parameters of stars from their derived effective temperatures (Teff), surface gravities (log g), and metallicities ([Fe/H]); the parameters can be combined with photometric, astrometric, interferometric, or asteroseismic information. Here we aim to homogenise the stellar characterisation by applying a unified tool to a large set of publicly available spectrophotometric data. Methods: We used spectroscopic data from a variety of large surveys combined with infrared photometry from 2MASS and AllWISE and compared these in a Bayesian manner with PARSEC isochrones to derive probability density functions (PDFs) for stellar masses, ages, and distances. We treated PDFs of pre-helium-core burning, helium-core burning, and post helium-core burning solutions as well as different peaks in multimodal PDFs (I.e. each unimodal sub-PDF) of the different evolutionary phases separately. Results: For over 2.5 million stars we report mass, age, and distance estimates for each evolutionary phase and unimodal sub-PDF. We report Gaussian, skewed, Gaussian, truncated Gaussian, modified truncated exponential distribution or truncated Student's t-distribution functions to represent each sub-PDF, allowing us to reconstruct detailed PDFs. Comparisons with stellar parameter estimates from the literature show good agreement within uncertainties. Conclusions: We present UniDAM, the unified tool applicable to spectrophotometric data of different surveys, to obtain a homogenised set of stellar parameters. The unified tool and the tables with results are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/604/A108

The panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury. VI. The reliability of far-ultraviolet flux as a star formation tracer on subkiloparsec scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simones, Jacob E.; Skillman, Evan D.; Weisz, Daniel R.

We have used optical observations of resolved stars from the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury to measure the recent (<500 Myr) star formation histories (SFHs) of 33 far-UV (FUV)-bright regions in M31. The region areas ranged from ∼10{sup 4} to 10{sup 6} pc{sup 2}, which allowed us to test the reliability of FUV flux as a tracer of recent star formation on subkiloparsec scales. The star formation rates (SFRs) derived from the extinction-corrected observed FUV fluxes were, on average, consistent with the 100 Myr mean SFRs of the SFHs to within the 1σ scatter. Overall, the scatter was larger than themore » uncertainties in the SFRs and particularly evident among the smallest regions. The scatter was consistent with an even combination of discrete sampling of the initial mass function and high variability in the SFHs. This result demonstrates the importance of satisfying both the full-IMF and the constant-SFR assumptions for obtaining precise SFR estimates from FUV flux. Assuming a robust FUV extinction correction, we estimate that a factor of 2.5 uncertainty can be expected in FUV-based SFRs for regions smaller than 10{sup 5} pc{sup 2} or a few hundred parsecs. We also examined ages and masses derived from UV flux under the common assumption that the regions are simple stellar populations (SSPs). The SFHs showed that most of the regions are not SSPs, and the age and mass estimates were correspondingly discrepant from the SFHs. For those regions with SSP-like SFHs, we found mean discrepancies of 10 Myr in age and a factor of 3-4 in mass. It was not possible to distinguish the SSP-like regions from the others based on integrated FUV flux.« less

Demand for Colonoscopy in Colorectal Cancer Screening Using a Quantitative Fecal Immunochemical Test and Age/Sex-Specific Thresholds for Test Positivity.

PubMed

Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Hsu, Chen-Yang; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Young, Graeme P; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Lee, Yi-Chia; Chiu, Han-Mo; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2018-06-01

Background: Despite age and sex differences in fecal hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentrations, most fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programs use population-average cut-points for test positivity. The impact of age/sex-specific threshold on FIT accuracy and colonoscopy demand for colorectal cancer screening are unknown. Methods: Using data from 723,113 participants enrolled in a Taiwanese population-based colorectal cancer screening with single FIT between 2004 and 2009, sensitivity and specificity were estimated for various f-Hb thresholds for test positivity. This included estimates based on a "universal" threshold, receiver-operating-characteristic curve-derived threshold, targeted sensitivity, targeted false-positive rate, and a colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted method integrating colonoscopy workload with and without age/sex adjustments. Results: Optimal age/sex-specific thresholds were found to be equal to or lower than the universal 20 μg Hb/g threshold. For older males, a higher threshold (24 μg Hb/g) was identified using a 5% false-positive rate. Importantly, a nonlinear relationship was observed between sensitivity and colonoscopy workload with workload rising disproportionately to sensitivity at 16 μg Hb/g. At this "colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted" threshold, the test positivity (colonoscopy workload) was 4.67% and sensitivity was 79.5%, compared with a lower 4.0% workload and a lower 78.7% sensitivity using 20 μg Hb/g. When constrained on capacity, age/sex-adjusted estimates were generally lower. However, optimizing age/-sex-adjusted thresholds increased colonoscopy demand across models by 17% or greater compared with a universal threshold. Conclusions: Age/sex-specific thresholds improve FIT accuracy with modest increases in colonoscopy demand. Impact: Colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted and age/sex-specific f-Hb thresholds may be useful in optimizing individual screening programs based on detection accuracy, population characteristics, and clinical capacity. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(6); 704-9. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Cognitive function and dementia in six areas of England and Wales: the distribution of MMSE and prevalence of GMS organicity level in the MRC CFA Study. The Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS).

PubMed

1998-03-01

This two-stage prevalence survey involved geographically delimited areas, four urban (Liverpool, Newcastle, Nottingham and Oxford) and two rural (Cambridgeshire and Gwynedd), including institutions. Stratified random population samples of people in their 65th year and above, from Family Health Service Authorities were studied. The sample was stratified (65-74 years and > or = 75) to provide equal numbers. In Liverpool equal numbers in 5 year age groups were taken. After an initial screening interview, approximately 20% were selected on the basis of age, AGECAT organicity confidence level and MMSE score to proceed to a detailed assessment interview from which the full AGECAT organicity confidence level could be derived. Major influences on MMSE were confirmed as age, sex, social class and educational level. Estimates of prevalence of AGECAT O3 and above for each centre and the entire sample according to age are given, based on 1991 Census population structure, and suggest that around half a million (543,400) people in England and Wales would be defined as case level by this method. The five centres employing the same methodology showed no heterogeneity in prevalence. Prevalence of cognitive impairment and dementia appear not to vary widely across the centres examined in this study, which provides stable estimates by age and sex for AGECAT O3 and above, and norms for MMSE. Using these estimates as an indication of the size of the population affected, around 550,000 individuals in England and Wales would be expected to be suffering from dementia of mild or greater severity.

Presentation and outcome amongst older Singaporeans living with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS): does age alone drive excess mortality?

PubMed

Huggan, Paul J; Foo, Rui Min; Olszyna, Dariusz; Chew, Nicholas S; Smitasen, Nares; Mukhopadhyay, Amartya; Archuleta, Sophia

2012-12-01

There is little detailed information on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) amongst older adults in Singapore. A retrospective study of 121 consecutive referrals of patients presenting for HIV care was conducted. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were collected. A prognostic model derived from the North American Veterans' Affairs Cohort Study (VACS) was used to estimate prognosis. The median age at presentation was 43 (range, 18 to 76). Thirty-eight patients (31%) were aged 50 or older and 106 patients (88%) were male. Older patients were more likely to be of Chinese ethnicity (P = 0.035), married (P = 0.0001), unemployed or retired (P = 0.0001), and to have acquired their infection heterosexually (P = 0.0002). The majority of patients in both groups were symptomatic at presentation. Eighty-one (67%) had CD4 counts less than 200 at baseline with no observable differences in HIV ribonucleic acid (RNA) or clinical stage based on age. Non-Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) morbidity was observed more frequently amongst older patients. The estimated prognosis of patients differed significantly based on age. Using the VACS Index and comparing younger patients with those aged 50 and above, mean 5 year mortality estimates were 25% and 50% respectively (P <0.001). A trend towards earlier antiretroviral therapy was noted amongst older patients (P = 0.067) driven mainly by fewer financial difficulties reported as barriers to treatment. Older patients form a high proportion of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases and present with more non-AIDS morbidity. This confers a poor prognosis despite comparable findings with younger patients in terms of clinical stage, AIDS-defining illness, CD4 count and HIV viral load.

Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

PubMed

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

Estimation of the stand ages of tropical secondary forests after shifting cultivation based on the combination of WorldView-2 and time-series Landsat images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiki, Shogoro; Okada, Kei-ichi; Nishio, Shogo; Kitayama, Kanehiro

2016-09-01

We developed a new method to estimate stand ages of secondary vegetation in the Bornean montane zone, where local people conduct traditional shifting cultivation and protected areas are surrounded by patches of recovering secondary vegetation of various ages. Identifying stand ages at the landscape level is critical to improve conservation policies. We combined a high-resolution satellite image (WorldView-2) with time-series Landsat images. We extracted stand ages (the time elapsed since the most recent slash and burn) from a change-detection analysis with Landsat time-series images and superimposed the derived stand ages on the segments classified by object-based image analysis using WorldView-2. We regarded stand ages as a response variable, and object-based metrics as independent variables, to develop regression models that explain stand ages. Subsequently, we classified the vegetation of the target area into six age units and one rubber plantation unit (1-3 yr, 3-5 yr, 5-7 yr, 7-30 yr, 30-50 yr, >50 yr and 'rubber plantation') using regression models and linear discriminant analyses. Validation demonstrated an accuracy of 84.3%. Our approach is particularly effective in classifying highly dynamic pioneer vegetation younger than 7 years into 2-yr intervals, suggesting that rapid changes in vegetation canopies can be detected with high accuracy. The combination of a spectral time-series analysis and object-based metrics based on high-resolution imagery enabled the classification of dynamic vegetation under intensive shifting cultivation and yielded an informative land cover map based on stand ages.

Estimating distributions with increasing failure rate in an imperfect repair model.

PubMed

Kvam, Paul H; Singh, Harshinder; Whitaker, Lyn R

2002-03-01

A failed system is repaired minimally if after failure, it is restored to the working condition of an identical system of the same age. We extend the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a system's lifetime distribution function to test units that are known to have an increasing failure rate. Such items comprise a significant portion of working components in industry. The order-restricted MLE is shown to be consistent. Similar results hold for the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model, which dictates that a failed component is repaired perfectly with some unknown probability, and is otherwise repaired minimally. The estimators derived are motivated and illustrated by failure data in the nuclear industry. Failure times for groups of emergency diesel generators and motor-driven pumps are analyzed using the order-restricted methods. The order-restricted estimators are consistent and show distinct differences from the ordinary MLEs. Simulation results suggest significant improvement in reliability estimation is available in many cases when component failure data exhibit the IFR property.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nisbet, A.F.; Woodman, R.F.M.

A database of soil-to-plant transfer factors for radiocesium and radiostrontium has been compiled for arable crops from published and unpublished sources. The database is more extensive than previous compilations of data published by the International Union of Radioecologists, containing new information for Scandinavia and Greece in particular. It also contains ancillary data on important soil characteristics. The database is sub-divided into 28 soil-crop combinations, covering four soil types and seven crop groups. Statistical analyses showed that transfer factors for radiocesium could not generally be predicted as a function of climatic region, type of experiment, age of contamination, or silt characteristics.more » However, significant relationships accounting for more than 30% of the variability in transfer factor were identified between transfer factors for radiostrontium and soil pH/organic matter status for a few soil-crop combinations. Best estimate transfer factors for radiocesium and radiostrontium were calculated for 28 soil-crop combinations, based on their geometric means: only the edible parts were considered. To predict the likely value of future individual transfer factors, 95% confidence intervals were also derived. A comparison of best estimate transfer factors derived in this study with recommended values published by the International Union of Radioecologists in 1989 and 1992 was made for comparable soil-crop groupings. While there were no significant differences between the best estimate values derived in this study and the 1992 data, radiological assessments that still use 1989 data may be unnecessarily cautious.« less

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers

PubMed Central

Ryckman, Kelli K.; Berberich, Stanton L.; Dagle, John M.

2016-01-01

Background Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. Objective We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. Study Design This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R2) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. Results The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895−0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of infants born small-for-gestational age, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the newborn metabolic model and the recorded gestational age was 1.5 weeks. In contrast, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the model including only newborn weight and the recorded gestational age was 1.9 weeks. The estimated prevalence of preterm birth <37 weeks’ gestation in the subset of infants that were small for gestational age was 18.79% when the model including only newborn weight was used, over twice that of the actual prevalence of 9.20%. The newborn metabolic model underestimated the preterm birth prevalence at 6.94% but was closer to the prevalence based on the recorded gestational age than the model including only newborn weight. Conclusions The newborn metabolic profile, as derived from routine newborn screening markers, is an accurate method for estimating gestational age. In small-for-gestational age neonates, the newborn metabolic model predicts gestational age to a better degree than newborn weight alone. Newborn metabolic screening is a potentially effective method for population surveillance of preterm birth in the absence of prenatal ultrasound measurements or newborn weight. PMID:26645954

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers.

PubMed

Ryckman, Kelli K; Berberich, Stanton L; Dagle, John M

2016-04-01

Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895-0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of infants born small-for-gestational age, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the newborn metabolic model and the recorded gestational age was 1.5 weeks. In contrast, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the model including only newborn weight and the recorded gestational age was 1.9 weeks. The estimated prevalence of preterm birth <37 weeks' gestation in the subset of infants that were small for gestational age was 18.79% when the model including only newborn weight was used, over twice that of the actual prevalence of 9.20%. The newborn metabolic model underestimated the preterm birth prevalence at 6.94% but was closer to the prevalence based on the recorded gestational age than the model including only newborn weight. The newborn metabolic profile, as derived from routine newborn screening markers, is an accurate method for estimating gestational age. In small-for-gestational age neonates, the newborn metabolic model predicts gestational age to a better degree than newborn weight alone. Newborn metabolic screening is a potentially effective method for population surveillance of preterm birth in the absence of prenatal ultrasound measurements or newborn weight. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

HUBBLE TARANTULA TREASURY PROJECT. V. THE STAR CLUSTER HODGE 301: THE OLD FACE OF 30 DORADUS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cignoni, M.; Sabbi, E.; Marel, R. P. van der

Based on color–magnitude diagrams (CMDs) from the Hubble Space Telescope  Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project (HTTP) survey, we present the star formation history of Hodge 301, the oldest star cluster in the Tarantula Nebula. The HTTP photometry extends faint enough to reach, for the first time, the cluster pre-main sequence (PMS) turn-on, where the PMS joins the main sequence. Using the location of this feature, along with synthetic CMDs generated with the latest PARSEC models, we find that Hodge 301 is older than previously thought, with an age between 26.5 and 31.5 Myr. From this age, we also estimate that between 38 andmore » 61 Type II supernovae exploded in the region. The same age is derived from the main sequence turn-off, whereas the age derived from the post-main sequence stars is younger and between 20 and 25 Myr. Other relevant parameters are a total stellar mass of ≈8800 ± 800  M {sub ⊙} and average reddening E ( B − V ) ≈ 0.22–0.24 mag, with a differential reddening δE ( B − V ) ≈ 0.04 mag.« less

Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project V. The Star Cluster Hodge 301: The Old Face of 30 Doradus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cignoni, M.; Sabbi, E.; van der Marel, R. P.; Lennon, D. J.; Tosi, M.; Grebel, E. K.; Gallagher, J. S., III; Aloisi, A.; de Marchi, G.; Gouliermis, D. A.; Larsen, S.; Panagia, N.; Smith, L. J.

2016-12-01

Based on color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) from the Hubble Space Telescope Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project (HTTP) survey, we present the star formation history of Hodge 301, the oldest star cluster in the Tarantula Nebula. The HTTP photometry extends faint enough to reach, for the first time, the cluster pre-main sequence (PMS) turn-on, where the PMS joins the main sequence. Using the location of this feature, along with synthetic CMDs generated with the latest PARSEC models, we find that Hodge 301 is older than previously thought, with an age between 26.5 and 31.5 Myr. From this age, we also estimate that between 38 and 61 Type II supernovae exploded in the region. The same age is derived from the main sequence turn-off, whereas the age derived from the post-main sequence stars is younger and between 20 and 25 Myr. Other relevant parameters are a total stellar mass of ≈8800 ± 800 M ⊙ and average reddening E(B - V) ≈ 0.22-0.24 mag, with a differential reddening δE(B - V) ≈ 0.04 mag. Based on observations with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained at the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by AURA Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against herpes zoster in England and Wales.

PubMed

van Hoek, A J; Gay, N; Melegaro, A; Opstelten, W; Edmunds, W J

2009-02-25

A live-attenuated vaccine against herpes zoster (HZ) has been approved for use, on the basis of a large-scale clinical trial that suggests that the vaccine is safe and efficacious. This study uses a Markov cohort model to estimate whether routine vaccination of the elderly (60+) would be cost-effective, when compared with other uses of health care resources. Vaccine efficacy parameters are estimated by fitting a model to clinical trial data. Estimates of QALY losses due to acute HZ and post-herpetic neuralgia were derived by fitting models to data on the duration of pain by severity and the QoL detriment associated with different severity categories, as reported in a number of different studies. Other parameters (such as cost and incidence estimates) were based on the literature, or UK data sources. The results suggest that vaccination of 65 year olds is likely to be cost-effective (base-case ICER=pound20,400 per QALY gained). If the vaccine does offer additional protection against either the severity of disease or the likelihood of developing PHN (as suggested by the clinical trial), then vaccination of all elderly age groups is highly likely to be deemed cost-effective. Vaccination at either 65 or 70 years (depending on assumptions of the vaccine action) is most cost-effective. Including a booster dose at a later age is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Improved Dietary Guidelines for Vitamin D: Application of Individual Participant Data (IPD)-Level Meta-Regression Analyses

PubMed Central

Cashman, Kevin D.; Ritz, Christian; Kiely, Mairead

2017-01-01

Dietary Reference Values (DRVs) for vitamin D have a key role in the prevention of vitamin D deficiency. However, despite adopting similar risk assessment protocols, estimates from authoritative agencies over the last 6 years have been diverse. This may have arisen from diverse approaches to data analysis. Modelling strategies for pooling of individual subject data from cognate vitamin D randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are likely to provide the most appropriate DRV estimates. Thus, the objective of the present work was to undertake the first-ever individual participant data (IPD)-level meta-regression, which is increasingly recognized as best practice, from seven winter-based RCTs (with 882 participants ranging in age from 4 to 90 years) of the vitamin D intake–serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) dose-response. Our IPD-derived estimates of vitamin D intakes required to maintain 97.5% of 25(OH)D concentrations >25, 30, and 50 nmol/L across the population are 10, 13, and 26 µg/day, respectively. In contrast, standard meta-regression analyses with aggregate data (as used by several agencies in recent years) from the same RCTs estimated that a vitamin D intake requirement of 14 µg/day would maintain 97.5% of 25(OH)D >50 nmol/L. These first IPD-derived estimates offer improved dietary recommendations for vitamin D because the underpinning modeling captures the between-person variability in response of serum 25(OH)D to vitamin D intake. PMID:28481259

Effects of time-shifted data on flight determined stability and control derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steers, S. T.; Iliff, K. W.

1975-01-01

Flight data were shifted in time by various increments to assess the effects of time shifts on estimates of stability and control derivatives produced by a maximum likelihood estimation method. Derivatives could be extracted from flight data with the maximum likelihood estimation method even if there was a considerable time shift in the data. Time shifts degraded the estimates of the derivatives, but the degradation was in a consistent rather than a random pattern. Time shifts in the control variables caused the most degradation, and the lateral-directional rotary derivatives were affected the most by time shifts in any variable.

High-resolution abundance analysis of the metallic-line star HR 7250

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmaslı, Aslı; Ünal, Kübraözge; Çalışkan, Şeyma

2018-07-01

We estimated the stellar parameters and chemical abundances of the highly neglected A-type star HR 7250. The star's high resolution spectrum, spanning a wavelength range from 3900 to 7900 Å, was obtained at the TÜBİTAK National Observatory. We derived the abundances of 14 elements (O, Na, Mg, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Sr, Y, and Ba) for HR 7250 from the unblended lines of the star's spectrum. Our analysis shows that HR 7250 is a chemically peculiar Am star. We also estimated its age and mass as 400 ± 70 Myr and 3.25 ± 0.17 M⊙ from evolutionary tracks and isochrones.

Lactate threshold by muscle electrical impedance in professional rowers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jotta, B.; Coutinho, A. B. B.; Pino, A. V.; Souza, M. N.

2017-04-01

Lactate threshold (LT) is one of the physiological parameters usually used in rowing sport training prescription because it indicates the transitions from aerobic to anaerobic metabolism. Assessment of LT is classically based on a series of values of blood lactate concentrations obtained during progressive exercise tests and thus has an invasive aspect. The feasibility of noninvasive LT estimative through bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS) data collected in thigh muscles during rowing ergometer exercise tests was investigated. Nineteen professional rowers, age 19 (mean) ± 4.8 (standard deviation) yr, height 187.3 ± 6.6 cm, body mass 83 ± 7.7 kg, and training experience of 7 ± 4 yr, were evaluated in a rowing ergometer progressive test with paired measures of blood lactate concentration and BIS in thigh muscles. Bioelectrical impedance data were obtained by using a bipolar method of spectroscopy based on the current response to a voltage step. An electrical model was used to interpret BIS data and to derive parameters that were investigated to estimate LT noninvasively. From the serial blood lactate measurements, LT was also determined through Dmax method (LTDmax). The zero crossing of the second derivative of kinetic of the capacitance electrode (Ce), one of the BIS parameters, was used to estimate LT. The agreement between the LT estimates through BIS (LTBIS) and through Dmax method (LTDmax) was evaluated using Bland-Altman plots, leading to a mean difference between the estimates of just 0.07 W and a Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.85. This result supports the utilization of the proposed method based on BIS parameters for estimating noninvasively the lactate threshold in rowing.

Improved distances and ages for stars common to TGAS and RAVE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, Paul J.; Kordopatis, Georges; Kunder, Andrea; Binney, James; Wojno, Jennifer; Zwitter, Tomaž; Steinmetz, Matthias; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Gibson, Brad K.; Gilmore, Gerard; Grebel, Eva K.; Helmi, Amina; Munari, Ulisse; Navarro, Julio F.; Parker, Quentin A.; Seabroke, George; Watson, Fred; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.

2018-04-01

We combine parallaxes from the first Gaia data release with the spectrophotometric distance estimation framework for stars in the fifth RAVE survey data release. The combined distance estimates are more accurate than either determination in isolation - uncertainties are on average two times smaller than for RAVE-only distances (three times smaller for dwarfs), and 1.4 times smaller than TGAS parallax uncertainties (two times smaller for giants). We are also able to compare the estimates from spectrophotometry to those from Gaia, and use this to assess the reliability of both catalogues and improve our distance estimates. We find that the distances to the lowest log g stars are, on average, overestimated and caution that they may not be reliable. We also find that it is likely that the Gaia random uncertainties are smaller than the reported values. As a byproduct we derive ages for the RAVE stars, many with relative uncertainties less than 20 percent. These results for 219 566 RAVE sources have been made publicly available, and we encourage their use for studies that combine the radial velocities provided by RAVE with the proper motions provided by Gaia. A sample that we believe to be reliable can be found by taking only the stars with the flag notification `flag_any=0'.

Natural mortality estimation and rational exploitation of purpleback flying squid Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis in the southern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xuehui; Qiu, Yongsong; Zhang, Peng; Du, Feiyan

2017-07-01

Based on the biological data of purpleback flying squid ( Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) collected by light falling-net in the southern South China Sea (SCS) during September to October 2012 and March to April 2013, growth and mortality of `Medium' and `Dwarf' forms of squid are derived using the Powell-Wetherall, ELEFAN methods and length-converted catch curves (FiSAT package). Given a lack of commercial exploitation, we assume total mortality to be due entirely to natural mortality. We estimate these squid have fast growth, with growth coefficients ( k) ranging from 1.42 to 2.39, and high natural mortality ( M), with estimates ranging from 1.61 to 2.92. To sustainably exploit these squid stocks, yield per recruitment based on growth and natural mortality was determined using the Beverton-Holt dynamic pool model. We demonstrate squid stocks could sustain high fishing mortality and low ages at first capture, with an optimal fishing mortality >3.0, with the optimal age at first capture increased to 0.4-0.6 years when fishing mortality approached optimal levels. On the basis of our analyses and estimates of stock biomass, we believe considerable potential exists to expand the squid fishery into the open SCS, relieving fishing pressure on coastal waters.

Improved distances and ages for stars common to TGAS and RAVE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, Paul J.; Kordopatis, Georges; Kunder, Andrea; Binney, James; Wojno, Jennifer; Zwitter, Tomaž; Steinmetz, Matthias; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Gibson, Brad K.; Gilmore, Gerard; Grebel, Eva K.; Helmi, Amina; Munari, Ulisse; Navarro, Julio F.; Parker, Quentin A.; Seabroke, George; Watson, Fred; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.

2018-07-01

We combine parallaxes from the first Gaia data release with the spectrophotometric distance estimation framework for stars in the fifth RAVE survey data release. The combined distance estimates are more accurate than either determination in isolation - uncertainties are on average two times smaller than for RAVE-only distances (three times smaller for dwarfs), and 1.4 times smaller than TGAS parallax uncertainties (two times smaller for giants). We are also able to compare the estimates from spectrophotometry to those from Gaia, and use this to assess the reliability of both catalogues and improve our distance estimates. We find that the distances to the lowest log g stars are, on average, overestimated and caution that they may not be reliable. We also find that it is likely that the Gaia random uncertainties are smaller than the reported values. As a by-product we derive ages for the RAVE stars, many with relative uncertainties less than 20 per cent. These results for 219 566 RAVE sources have been made publicly available, and we encourage their use for studies that combine the radial velocities provided by RAVE with the proper motions provided by Gaia. A sample that we believe to be reliable can be found by taking only the stars with the flag notification `flag_any=0'.

Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

PubMed Central

Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2011-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We present the first empirical estimates for S. mansoni and S. haematobium prevalence at high spatial resolution throughout West Africa. Our prediction maps allow prioritizing of interventions in a spatially explicit manner, and will be useful for monitoring and evaluation of schistosomiasis control programs. PMID:21695107

Assessing Screening Policies for Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Wein, Lawrence M.; Yang, Yan; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.

2014-01-01

To address growing concerns over childhood obesity, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently recommended that children undergo obesity screening beginning at age 6 [1]. An Expert Committee recommends starting at age 2 [2]. Analysis is needed to assess these recommendations and investigate whether there are better alternatives. We model the age- and sex-specific population-wide distribution of body mass index (BMI) through age 18 using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data [3]. The impact of treatment on BMI is estimated using the targeted systematic review performed to aid the USPSTF [4]. The prevalence of hypertension and diabetes at age 40 are estimated from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics [5]. We fix the screening interval at 2 years, and derive the age- and sex-dependent BMI thresholds that minimize adult disease prevalence, subject to referring a specified percentage of children for treatment yearly. We compare this optimal biennial policy to biennial versions of the USPSTF and Expert Committee recommendations. Compared to the USPSTF recommendation, the optimal policy reduces adult disease prevalence by 3% in relative terms (the absolute reductions are < 1%) at the same treatment referral rate, or achieves the same disease prevalence at a 28% reduction in treatment referral rate. If compared to the Expert Committee recommendation, the reductions change to 6% and 40%, respectively. The optimal policy treats mostly 16 year olds and few children under age 14. Our results suggest that adult disease is minimized by focusing childhood obesity screening and treatment on older adolescents. PMID:22240724

A comparison of estimates of statewide pleasure trip volume and expenditures derived from telephone versus mail surveys

Treesearch

Dae-Kwan Kim; Daniel M. Spotts; Donald F. Holecek

1998-01-01

This paper compares estimates of pleasure trip volume and expenditures derived from a regional telephone survey to those derived from the TravelScope mail panel survey. Significantly different estimates emerged, suggesting that survey-based estimates of pleasure trip volume and expenditures, at least in the case of the two surveys examined, appear to be affected by...

Ability of self-reported estimates of dietary sodium, potassium and protein to detect an association with general and abdominal obesity: comparison with the estimates derived from 24 h urinary excretion.

PubMed

Murakami, Kentaro; Livingstone, M Barbara E; Sasaki, Satoshi; Uenishi, Kazuhiro

2015-04-28

As under-reporting of dietary intake, particularly by overweight and obese subjects, is common in dietary surveys, biases inherent in the use of self-reported dietary information may distort true diet-obesity relationships or even create spurious ones. However, empirical evidence of this possibility is limited. The present cross-sectional study compared the relationships of 24 h urine-derived and self-reported intakes of Na, K and protein with obesity. A total of 1043 Japanese women aged 18-22 years completed a 24 h urine collection and a self-administered diet history questionnaire. After adjustment for potential confounders, 24 h urine-derived Na intake was associated with a higher risk of general obesity (BMI≥25 kg/m2) and abdominal obesity (waist circumference≥80 cm; both P for trend=0·04). For 24 h urine-derived protein intake, positive associations with general and abdominal obesity were observed (P for trend=0·02 and 0·053, respectively). For 24 h urine-derived K intake, there was an inverse association with abdominal obesity (P for trend=0·01). Conversely, when self-reported dietary information was used, only inverse associations between K intake and general and abdominal obesity were observed (P for trend=0·04 and 0·02, respectively), with no associations of Na or protein intake. In conclusion, we found positive associations of Na and protein intakes and inverse associations of K intake with obesity when using 24 h urinary excretion for estimating dietary intakes. However, no association was observed based on using self-reported dietary intakes, except for inverse association of K intake, suggesting that the ability of self-reported dietary information using the diet history questionnaire for investigating diet-obesity relationships is limited.

Predictive values derived from lower wisdom teeth developmental stages on orthopantomograms to calculate the chronological age in adolescence and young adults as a prerequisite to obtain age-adjusted informed patient consent prior to elective surgical procedures in young patients with incomplete or mismatched personal data.

PubMed

Friedrich, Reinhard E; Schmidt, Kirsten; Treszl, András; Kersten, Jan F

2016-01-01

Introduction: Surgical procedures require informed patient consent, which is mandatory prior to any procedure. These requirements apply in particular to elective surgical procedures. The communication with the patient about the procedure has to be comprehensive and based on mutual understanding. Furthermore, the informed consent has to take into account whether a patient is of legal age. As a result of large-scale migration, there are eventually patients planned for medical procedures, whose chronological age can't be assessed reliably by physical inspection alone. Age determination based on assessing wisdom tooth development stages can be used to help determining whether individuals involved in medical procedures are of legal age, i.e., responsible and accountable. At present, the assessment of wisdom tooth developmental stages barely allows a crude estimate of an individual's age. This study explores possibilities for more precise predictions of the age of individuals with emphasis on the legal age threshold of 18 years. Material and Methods: 1,900 dental orthopantomograms (female 938, male 962, age: 15-24 years), taken between the years 2000 and 2013 for diagnosis and treatment of diseases of the jaws, were evaluated. 1,895 orthopantomograms (female 935, male 960) of 1,804 patients (female 872, male 932) met the inclusion criteria. The archives of the Department of Diagnostic Radiology in Dentistry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, and of an oral and maxillofacial office in Rostock, Germany, were used to collect a sufficient number of radiographs. An effort was made to achieve almost equal distribution of age categories in this study group; 'age' was given on a particular day. The radiological criteria of lower third molar investigation were: presence and extension of periodontal space, alveolar bone loss, emergence of tooth, and stage of tooth mineralization (according to Demirjian). Univariate and multivariate general linear models were calculated. Using hierarchical multivariate analyses a formula was derived quantifying the development of the four parameters of wisdom tooth over time. This model took repeated measurements of the same persons into account and is only applicable when a person is assessed a second time. The second approach investigates a linear regression model in order to predict the age. In a third approach, a classification and regression tree (CART) was developed to derive cut-off values for the four parameters, resulting in a classification with estimates for sensitivity and specificity. Results: No statistically significant differences were found between parameters related to wisdom tooth localization (right or left side). In univariate analyses being of legal age was associated with consecutive stages of wisdom tooth development, the obliteration of the periodontal space, and tooth emergence, as well with alveolar bone loss; no association was found with tooth mineralization. Multivariate models without repeated measurements revealed imprecise estimates because of the unknown individual-related variability. The precision of these models is thus not very good, although it improves with advancing age. When calculating a CART-analysis and a receiver operating characteristics - area under the curve of 78% was achieved; when maximizing both specificity and sensitivity, a Youden's index of 47% was achieved (with 73% specificity and 74% sensitivity). Discussion: This study provides a basis to help determine whether a person is 18 years or older in individuals who are assumed to be between 15 and 24 years old. From repeated measurements, we found a linear effect of age on the four parameters in the individuals. However, this information can't be used for prognosis, because of the large intra-individual variability. Thus, although the development of the four parameters can be estimated over time, a direct conclusion with regard to age can't be drawn from the parameters without previous biographic information about a person. While a single parameter is of limited value for calculating the target age of 18 years, combining several findings, that can be determined on a standard radiography, may potentially be a more reliable diagnostic tool for estimating the target age in both sexes. However, a high degree of precision can't be achieved. The reason for persistent uncertainty lies in the wide chronological range of wisdom tooth development, which stretches from well below to above the 18 th life year. The regression approach thus seems not optimal. Although sensitivity and specificity of the CART-model are moderately high, this model is still not reliable as a diagnostic tool. Our findings could have impact, e.g. on elective surgeries for young individuals with unknown biography. However, these results cannot replace social engagement, in particular thorough physical examination of patients and careful registration of their histories. Further studies on the use of this calculation method in different ethnic groups would be desirable.

Establishing normal values for pediatric nighttime sleep measured by actigraphy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Galland, Barbara C; Short, Michelle A; Terrill, Philip; Rigney, Gabrielle; Haszard, Jillian J; Coussens, Scott; Foster-Owens, Mistral; Biggs, Sarah N

2018-04-01

Despite the widespread use of actigraphy in pediatric sleep studies, there are currently no age-related normative data. To systematically review the literature, calculate pooled mean estimates of actigraphy-derived pediatric nighttime sleep variables and to examine the magnitude of change with age. A systematic search was performed across eight databases of studies that included at least one actigraphy sleep variable from healthy children aged 0-18 years. Data suitable for meta-analysis were confined to ages 3-18 years with seven actigraphy variables analyzed using random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression performed using age as a covariate. In total, 1334 articles did not meet inclusion criteria; 87 had data suitable for review and 79 were suitable for meta-analysis. Pooled mean estimates for overnight sleep duration declined from 9.68 hours (3-5 years age band) to 8.98, 8.85, 8.05, and 7.4 for age bands 6-8, 9-11, 12-14, and 15-18 years, respectively. For continuous data, the best-fit (R2 = 0.74) equation for hours over the 0-18 years age range was 9.02 - 1.04 × [(age/10)^2 - 0.83]. There was a significant curvilinear association between both sleep onset and offset with age (p < .001). Sleep latency was stable at 19.4 min per night. There were significant differences among the older age groups between weekday and weekend/nonschool days (18 studies). Total sleep time in 15-18 years old was 56 min longer, and sleep onset and offset almost 1 and 2 hours later, respectively, on weekend or nonschool days. These normative values have potential application to assist the interpretation of actigraphy measures from nighttime recordings across the pediatric age range, and aid future research.

Environmental drivers of sapwood and heartwood proportions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian

2017-04-01

Recent advances combining information on stem volume from remote sensing with allometric relationships derived from forest inventory databases have led to spatially continuous estimates of stem, branch, root and foliage biomass in northern boreal and temperate forests. However, a separation of stem biomass into sapwood and heartwood mass has remained unsolved, despite their important differences in biogeochemical function, for instance concerning their contribution to tree respiratory costs. Although relationships between sapwood cross-sectional area and supported leaf area are well established, less is known about relations between sapwood or heartwood mass and other traits (e.g. stem mass), since these biomass compartments are more difficult to measure in practice. Here we investigate the variability in sapwood and heartwood proportions and determining environmental factors. For this task we explore an available biomass and allometry database (BAAD) and study relative sapwood and heartwood area, volume, mass and density in dependence of tree species, age and climate. First, a theoretical framework on how to estimate sap- and heartwood mass from stem mass is developed. Subsequently, the underlying assumptions and relationships are explored with the help of the BAAD. The established relationships can be used to derive spatially continuous sapwood and heartwood mass estimates by applying them to remote sensing based stem volume products. This would be a fundamental step forward to a data-driven estimate of autotrophic respiration.

A TECHNIQUE FOR ASSESSING THE ACCURACY OF SUB-PIXEL IMPERVIOUS SURFACE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM LANDSAT TM IMAGERY

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a technique for assessing the accuracy of sub-pixel derived estimates of impervious surface extracted from LANDSAT TM imagery. We utilized spatially coincident
sub-pixel derived impervious surface estimates, high-resolution planimetric GIS data, vector--to-
r...

Miocene marine incursions and marine/freshwater transitions: Evidence from Neotropical fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, Nathan R.; Albert, James S.; Crampton, William G. R.

2006-03-01

Amazonian rivers contain a remarkable fauna of endemic species derived from taxa that generally occur in oceans and seas. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origin of marine-derived lineages, including opportunistic invasions via estuaries, vicariance related to uplift of the Andes, and vicariance related to Miocene marine incursions and connections. Here, we examine available data for marine-derived lineages of four groups: stingrays (Myliobatiformes), drums (Sciaenidae), anchovies (Engraulididae), and needlefish (Belonidae). Geographic distributions, age estimates (determined using fossils, biogeography, and molecular data sets), and phylogenies for these taxa are most compatible with origination during the Miocene from marine sister groups distributed along the northern coast of South America. We speculate that unique ecological and biogeographic aspects of the Miocene upper Amazonian wetland system, most notably long-term connections with marine systems, facilitated the evolutionary transition from marine to freshwater habitats.

Differences of bone mineral mass, volumetric bone mineral density, geometrical and structural parameters and derived strength of the tibia between premenopausal and postmenopausal women of different age groups: a peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography (pQCT) study

PubMed Central

Stathopoulos, K.D.; Zoubos, A.B.; Papaioannou, N.A.; Mastrokalos, D.; Galanos, A.; Papagelopoulos, P.J.; Skarantavos, G.

2016-01-01

Menopause constitutes a significant cause of bone loss, and it is currently debated whether bone mass is preserved or begins to decline substantially before that time in women. We used pQCT of the tibia to estimate differences of bone mineral mass, bone geometry and derived strength between premenopausal and postmenopausal Caucasian women of different age-groups per decade of age (20-79y). For each individual, we assessed total, trabecular and cortical bone mineral content (BMC, mg) and volumetric bone mineral density (BMD, mg/cm3); total and cortical cross-sectional areas (CSA, mm2); periosteal circumference (PERI_C, mm); endosteal circumference (ENDO_C, mm); mean cortical thickness (CRT_THK, mm); and Stress-Strain Index (SSI). Comparisons were made both between premenopausal (N=84) and postmenopausal (N=231) women as distinct groups, and among women of the different age-groups. Our results indicated that premenopausal women had significantly higher trabecular and cortical BMC and vBMD, with higher cortical CSA, CRT_THK and SSI than postmenopausal women. Moreover, significant differences of trabecular but not cortical BMC, vBMD or SSI were found between women of the younger (<48y) age-groups. PERI_C, ENDO_C displayed lower values in the 20-29y group and higher values in the 70-79y group, denoting significant differences of bone geometry with aging. PMID:27282455

Mechanistic Modeling of Hemoglobin Glycation and Red Blood Cell Kinetics Enables Personalized Diabetes Monitoring

PubMed Central

Malka, Roy; Nathan, David M.; Higgins, John M.

2017-01-01

The glycated hemoglobin assay (HbA1c) is essential for the diagnosis and management of diabetes because it provides the best estimate of a patient’s average blood glucose (AG) over the preceding 2–3 months and is the best predictor of disease complications. However, there is substantial unexplained glucose-independent variation in HbA1c that makes AG estimation inaccurate and limits the precision of medical care for diabetics. The true AG of a non-diabetic and a poorly-controlled diabetic may differ by less than 15 mg/dL, but patients with identical HbA1c and thus identical HbA1c-based estimates of AG may have true AG that differs by more than 60 mg/dl. We combine a mechanistic mathematical model of hemoglobin glycation and red blood cell flux with large sets of intra-patient glucose measurements to derive patient-specific estimates of non-glycemic determinants of HbA1c including mean red blood cell age (MRBC). We find that interpatient variation in derived MRBC explains all glucose-independent variation in HbA1c. We then use our model to personalize prospective estimates of AG and reduce errors by more than 50% in four independent sets of more than 200 patients. The current standard of care provided AG estimates with errors > 15 mg/dL for 1 in 3 patients. Our patient-specific method reduced this error rate to 1 in 10. This personalized approach to estimating AG from HbA1c should improve medical care for diabetes using existing clinical measurements. PMID:27708063

Age-related differences in volumetric bone mineral density, microarchitecture, and bone strength of distal radius and tibia in Chinese women: a high-resolution pQCT reference database study.

PubMed

Hung, V W Y; Zhu, T Y; Cheung, W-H; Fong, T-N; Yu, F W P; Hung, L-K; Leung, K-S; Cheng, J C Y; Lam, T-P; Qin, L

2015-06-01

In a cohort of 393 Chinese women, by using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT), we found that significant cortical bone loss occurred after midlife. Prominent increase in cortical porosity began at the fifth decade but reached a plateau before the sixth decade. Trabecular bone loss was already evident in young adulthood and continued throughout life. This study aimed to investigate age-related differences in volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD), microarchitecture, and estimated bone strength at peripheral skeleton in Chinese female population. In a cross-sectional cohort of 393 Chinese women aged 20-90 years, we obtained vBMD, microarchtecture, and micro-finite element-derived bone strength at distal radius and tibia using HR-pQCT. The largest predictive age-related difference was found for cortical porosity (Ct.Po) which showed over four-fold and two-fold differences at distal radius and tibia, respectively, over the adulthood. At both sites, cortical bone area, vBMD, and thickness showed significant quadratic association with age with significant decrease beginning after midlife. Change of Ct.Po became more prominent between age of 50 and 57 (0.26 %/year at distal radius, 0.54 %/year at distal tibia, both p ≤ 0.001) but thereafter, reached a plateau (0.015 and 0.028 %/year, both p > 0.05). In contrast, trabecular vBMD and microarchitecture showed linear association with age with significant deterioration observed throughout adulthood. Estimated age of peak was around age of 20 for trabecular vBMD and microarchitecture and Ct.Po and age of 40 for cortical vBMD and microarchitecture. Estimated stiffness and failure load peaked at mid-30s at the distal radius and at age 20 at distal tibia. Age-related differences in vBMD and microarchitecture in Chinese women differed by bone compartments. Significant cortical bone loss occurred after midlife. Prominent increase in Ct.Po began at the fifth decade but appeared to be arrested before the sixth decade. Loss of trabecular bone was already evident in young adulthood and continued throughout life.

Modeling Hydrologic Transport through the Critical Zone: Lessons from Catchment-Scale and Lysimeter Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benettin, P.; Queloz, P.; Bailey, S. W.; McGuire, K. J.; Rinaldo, A.; Botter, G.

2015-12-01

Water age distributions can be used to address a number of environmental challenges, such as modeling the dynamics of river water quality, quantifying the interactions between shallow and deep flow systems and understanding nutrient loading persistence. Moreover, as the travel time of a water particle is the time available for biogeochemical reactions, it can be explicitly used to predict the concentration of non-conservative solutes, as e.g. those derived by mineral weathering. In recent years, many studies acknowledged the dynamic nature of streamflow age and linked it to observed variations in stream water quality. In this new framework, water stored within a catchment can be seen as a pool that is selectively "sampled" by streams and vegetation, determining the chemical composition of discharge and evapotranspiration. We present results from a controlled lysimeter experiment and real-world catchments, where the theoretical framework has been used to reproduce water quality datasets including conservative tracers (e.g. chloride and water stable isotopes) and weathering-derived solutes (like silicon and sodium). The approach proves useful to estimate the catchment water storage involved in solute mixing and sheds light on how solutes and water of different ages are selectively removed by vegetation and soil drainage.

Estimating the extent of impervious surfaces and turf grass across large regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Irani, Frederick M.; Thompson, Renee L.

2013-01-01

The ability of researchers to accurately assess the extent of impervious and pervious developed surfaces, e.g., turf grass, using land-cover data derived from Landsat satellite imagery in the Chesapeake Bay watershed is limited due to the resolution of the data and systematic discrepancies between developed land-cover classes, surface mines, forests, and farmlands. Estimates of impervious surface and turf grass area in the Mid-Atlantic, United States that were based on 2006 Landsat-derived land-cover data were substantially lower than estimates based on more authoritative and independent sources. New estimates of impervious surfaces and turf grass area derived using land-cover data combined with ancillary information on roads, housing units, surface mines, and sampled estimates of road width and residential impervious area were up to 57 and 45% higher than estimates based strictly on land-cover data. These new estimates closely approximate estimates derived from authoritative and independent sources in developed counties.

Statistics of Sxy estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freilich, M. H.; Pawka, S. S.

1987-01-01

The statistics of Sxy estimates derived from orthogonal-component measurements are examined. Based on results of Goodman (1957), the probability density function (pdf) for Sxy(f) estimates is derived, and a closed-form solution for arbitrary moments of the distribution is obtained. Characteristic functions are used to derive the exact pdf of Sxy(tot). In practice, a simple Gaussian approximation is found to be highly accurate even for relatively few degrees of freedom. Implications for experiment design are discussed, and a maximum-likelihood estimator for a posterior estimation is outlined.

Changing Attitudes Toward Euthanasia and Suicide for Terminally Ill Persons, 1977 to 2016: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

PubMed

Attell, Brandon K

2017-01-01

Several longitudinal studies show that over time the American public has become more approving of euthanasia and suicide for terminally ill persons. Yet, these previous findings are limited because they derive from biased estimates of disaggregated hierarchical data. Using insights from life course sociological theory and cross-classified logistic regression models, I better account for this liberalization process by disentangling the age, period, and cohort effects that contribute to longitudinal changes in these attitudes. The results of the analysis point toward a continued liberalization of both attitudes over time, although the magnitude of change was greater for suicide compared with euthanasia. More fluctuation in the probability of supporting both measures was exhibited for the age and period effects over the cohort effects. In addition, age-based differences in supporting both measures were found between men and women and various religious affiliations.

Predictive values derived from lower wisdom teeth developmental stages on orthopantomograms to calculate the chronological age in adolescence and young adults as a prerequisite to obtain age-adjusted informed patient consent prior to elective surgical procedures in young patients with incomplete or mismatched personal data

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Reinhard E.; Schmidt, Kirsten; Treszl, András; Kersten, Jan F.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Surgical procedures require informed patient consent, which is mandatory prior to any procedure. These requirements apply in particular to elective surgical procedures. The communication with the patient about the procedure has to be comprehensive and based on mutual understanding. Furthermore, the informed consent has to take into account whether a patient is of legal age. As a result of large-scale migration, there are eventually patients planned for medical procedures, whose chronological age can’t be assessed reliably by physical inspection alone. Age determination based on assessing wisdom tooth development stages can be used to help determining whether individuals involved in medical procedures are of legal age, i.e., responsible and accountable. At present, the assessment of wisdom tooth developmental stages barely allows a crude estimate of an individual’s age. This study explores possibilities for more precise predictions of the age of individuals with emphasis on the legal age threshold of 18 years. Material and Methods: 1,900 dental orthopantomograms (female 938, male 962, age: 15–24 years), taken between the years 2000 and 2013 for diagnosis and treatment of diseases of the jaws, were evaluated. 1,895 orthopantomograms (female 935, male 960) of 1,804 patients (female 872, male 932) met the inclusion criteria. The archives of the Department of Diagnostic Radiology in Dentistry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, and of an oral and maxillofacial office in Rostock, Germany, were used to collect a sufficient number of radiographs. An effort was made to achieve almost equal distribution of age categories in this study group; ‘age’ was given on a particular day. The radiological criteria of lower third molar investigation were: presence and extension of periodontal space, alveolar bone loss, emergence of tooth, and stage of tooth mineralization (according to Demirjian). Univariate and multivariate general linear models were calculated. Using hierarchical multivariate analyses a formula was derived quantifying the development of the four parameters of wisdom tooth over time. This model took repeated measurements of the same persons into account and is only applicable when a person is assessed a second time. The second approach investigates a linear regression model in order to predict the age. In a third approach, a classification and regression tree (CART) was developed to derive cut-off values for the four parameters, resulting in a classification with estimates for sensitivity and specificity. Results: No statistically significant differences were found between parameters related to wisdom tooth localization (right or left side). In univariate analyses being of legal age was associated with consecutive stages of wisdom tooth development, the obliteration of the periodontal space, and tooth emergence, as well with alveolar bone loss; no association was found with tooth mineralization. Multivariate models without repeated measurements revealed imprecise estimates because of the unknown individual-related variability. The precision of these models is thus not very good, although it improves with advancing age. When calculating a CART-analysis and a receiver operating characteristics – area under the curve of 78% was achieved; when maximizing both specificity and sensitivity, a Youden’s index of 47% was achieved (with 73% specificity and 74% sensitivity). Discussion: This study provides a basis to help determine whether a person is 18 years or older in individuals who are assumed to be between 15 and 24 years old. From repeated measurements, we found a linear effect of age on the four parameters in the individuals. However, this information can't be used for prognosis, because of the large intra-individual variability. Thus, although the development of the four parameters can be estimated over time, a direct conclusion with regard to age can’t be drawn from the parameters without previous biographic information about a person. While a single parameter is of limited value for calculating the target age of 18 years, combining several findings, that can be determined on a standard radiography, may potentially be a more reliable diagnostic tool for estimating the target age in both sexes. However, a high degree of precision can’t be achieved. The reason for persistent uncertainty lies in the wide chronological range of wisdom tooth development, which stretches from well below to above the 18th life year. The regression approach thus seems not optimal. Although sensitivity and specificity of the CART-model are moderately high, this model is still not reliable as a diagnostic tool. Our findings could have impact, e.g. on elective surgeries for young individuals with unknown biography. However, these results cannot replace social engagement, in particular thorough physical examination of patients and careful registration of their histories. Further studies on the use of this calculation method in different ethnic groups would be desirable. PMID:27975042

Validation of maturity offset in a longitudinal sample of Polish girls.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Kozieł, Sławomir M

2014-01-01

This study attempted to validate an anthropometric equation for predicting age at peak height velocity (PHV) in 198 Polish girls followed longitudinally from 8 to 18 years. Maturity offset (years before or after PHV) was predicted from chronological age, mass, stature, sitting height and estimated leg length at each observation; predicted age at PHV was the difference between age and maturity offset. Actual age at PHV for each girl was derived with Preece-Baines Model 1. Predicted ages at PHV increased from 8 to16 years and varied relative to time before and after actual age at PHV. Predicted and actual ages at PHV did not differ at 9 years, but predicted overestimated actual age at PHV from 10 to 16 years. Girls of contrasting maturity status differed in predicted age at PHV from 8 to 14 years. In conclusion, predicted age at PHV is dependent upon age at prediction and individual differences in actual age at PHV, which limits its utility as an indicator of maturity timing in general and in sport talent programmes. It may have limited applicability as a categorical variable (pre-, post-PHV) among average maturing girls during the interval of the growth spurt, ~11.0-13.0 years.

A New Geological Slip Rate Estimate for the Calico Fault, Eastern California: Implications for Geodetic Versus Geologic Rate Estimates in the Eastern California Shear Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetmore, P. H.; Xie, S.; Gallant, E.; Owen, L. A.; Dixon, T. H.

2017-12-01

Fault slip rate is fundamental to accurate seismic hazard assessment. In the Mojave Desert section of the Eastern California Shear Zone previous studies have suggested a discrepancy between short-term geodetic and long-term geologic slip rate estimates. Understanding the origin of this discrepancy could lead to better understanding of stress evolution, and improve earthquake hazard estimates in general. We measured offsets in alluvial fans along the Calico fault near Newberry Springs, California, and used exposure age dating based on the cosmogenic nuclide 10Be to date the offset landforms. We derive a mean slip rate of 3.6 mm/yr, representing an average over the last few hundred thousand years, significantly faster than previous estimates. Considering numerous faults in the Mojave Desert and limited geologic slip rate estimates, it is premature to claim a geologic versus geodetic "discrepancy" for the ECSZ. More slip rate data, from all faults with the ECSZ, are needed to provide a statistically meaningful assessment of the geologic rates for each of the faults comprising the ECSZ.

Systemic autoimmune rheumatic disease prevalence in Canada: updated analyses across 7 provinces.

PubMed

Broten, Laurel; Aviña-Zubieta, J Antonio; Lacaille, Diane; Joseph, Lawrence; Hanly, John G; Lix, Lisa; O'Donnell, Siobhan; Barnabe, Cheryl; Fortin, Paul R; Hudson, Marie; Jean, Sonia; Peschken, Christine; Edworthy, Steven M; Svenson, Larry; Pineau, Christian A; Clarke, Ann E; Smith, Mark; Bélisle, Patrick; Badley, Elizabeth M; Bergeron, Louise; Bernatsky, Sasha

2014-04-01

To estimate systemic autoimmune rheumatic disease (SARD) prevalence across 7 Canadian provinces using population-based administrative data evaluating both regional variations and the effects of age and sex. Using provincial physician billing and hospitalization data, cases of SARD (systemic lupus erythematosus, scleroderma, primary Sjögren syndrome, polymyositis/dermatomyositis) were ascertained. Three case definitions (rheumatology billing, 2-code physician billing, and hospital diagnosis) were combined to derive a SARD prevalence estimate for each province, categorized by age, sex, and rural/urban status. A hierarchical Bayesian latent class regression model was fit to account for the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of each case definition. The model also provided sensitivity estimates of different case definition approaches. Prevalence estimates for overall SARD ranged between 2 and 5 cases per 1000 residents across provinces. Similar demographic trends were evident across provinces, with greater prevalence in women and in persons over 45 years old. SARD prevalence in women over 45 was close to 1%. Overall sensitivity was poor, but estimates for each of the 3 case definitions improved within older populations and were slightly higher for men compared to women. Our results are consistent with previous estimates and other North American findings, and provide results from coast to coast, as well as useful information about the degree of regional and demographic variations that can be seen within a single country. Our work demonstrates the usefulness of using multiple data sources, adjusting for the error in each, and providing estimates of the sensitivity of different case definition approaches.

Uncertainty of GHz-band Whole-body Average SARs in Infants based on their Kaup Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miwa, Hironobu; Hirata, Akimasa; Fujiwara, Osamu; Nagaoka, Tomoaki; Watanabe, Soichi

We previously showed that a strong correlation exists between the absorption cross section and the body surface area of a human for 0.3-2GHz far field exposure, and proposed a formula for estimating whole-body-average specific absorption rates (WBA-SARs) in terms of height and weight. In this study, to evaluate variability in the WBA-SARs in infants based on their physique, we derived a new formula including Kaup indices of infants, which are being used to check their growth, and thereby estimated the WBA-SARs in infants with respect to their age from 0 month to three years. As a result, we found that under the same height/weight, the smaller the Kaup indices are, the larger the WBA-SARs become, and that the variability in the WBA-SARs is around 15% at the same age. To validate these findings, using the FDTD method, we simulated the GHz-band WBA-SARs in numerical human models corresponding to infants with age of 0, 1, 3, 6 and 9 months, which were obtained by scaling down the anatomically based Japanese three-year child model developed by NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology). Results show that the FDTD-simulated WBA-SARs are smaller by 20% compared to those estimated for infants having the median height and the Kaup index of 0.5 percentiles, which provide conservative WBA-SARs.

[The prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome in adults aged over 20 years in Changchun city].

PubMed

Li, Ming-xian; Wang, Ying; Hua, Shu-cheng; Li, Chun-mei; Wang, Mu-peng; Liu, Yang; Li, Zhong-min; Wang, Chun-yong; Fan, Jin-rong; Wang, Jing-Hua; Kong, Fan-yu; Wang, Min

2005-12-01

To investigate the prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS) in adults aged over 20 years in Changchun city, providing epidemiological data for treatment and prevention of the disease. 3,960 subjects were derived from a stratified cluster and random sampling of the population in two districts of Changchun city. They were asked to answer the questions from a questionnaire in their houses. According to the degree of snoring, 200 subjects with a snoring score >or= 2 degree were selected to undergo polysomnography for a whole night and the prevalence of the disease was estimated. A total of 3,648 (97.64%) validated questionnaires was collected. Of them 31.00% had a snoring score >or= 2 degree, the prevalence was higher in males (40.07%) than in females (21.76%). The prevalence of snoring was higher in drivers (42.47%) than in other occupations. The estimated prevalence of OSAHS defined by apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) >or= 5, Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS) >or= 9 and arterial oxygen saturation (SaO(2)) < 90% was 4.81%. The estimated prevalence of OSAHS in adults aged over 20 years in Changchun city was 4.81%. Doctors should pay more attention to the disease and the ordinary people should be informed of the health impact of snoring and OSAHS.

Accounting for multimorbidity can affect the estimation of the Burden of Disease: a comparison of approaches.

PubMed

Hilderink, Henk B M; Plasmans, Marjanne H D; Snijders, Bianca E P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Poos, M J J C René; van Gool, Coen H

2016-01-01

Various Burden of Disease (BoD) studies do not account for multimorbidity in their BoD estimates. Ignoring multimorbidity can lead to inaccuracies in BoD estimations, particularly in ageing populations that include large proportions of persons with two or more health conditions. The objective of this study is to improve BoD estimates for the Netherlands by accounting for multimorbidity. For this purpose, we analyzed different methods for 1) estimating the prevalence of multimorbidity and 2) deriving Disability Weights (DWs) for multimorbidity by using existing data on single health conditions. We included 25 health conditions from the Dutch Burden of Disease study that have a high rate of prevalence and that make a large contribution to the total number of Years Lived with a Disability (YLD). First, we analyzed four methods for estimating the prevalence of multimorbid conditions (i.e. independent, independent age- and sex-specific, dependent, and dependent sex- and age-specific). Secondly, we analyzed three methods for calculating the Combined Disability Weights (CDWs) associated with multimorbid conditions (i.e. additive, multiplicative and maximum limit). A combination of these two approaches was used to recalculate the number of YLDs, which is a component of the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). This study shows that the YLD estimates for 25 health conditions calculated using the multiplicative method for Combined Disability Weights are 5 % lower, and 14 % lower when using the maximum limit method, than when calculated using the additive method. Adjusting for sex- and age-specific dependent co-occurrence of health conditions reduces the number of YLDs by 10 % for the multiplicative method and by 26 % for the maximum limit method. The adjustment is higher for health conditions with a higher prevalence in old age, like heart failure (up to 43 %) and coronary heart diseases (up to 33 %). Health conditions with a high prevalence in middle age, such as anxiety disorders, have a moderate adjustment (up to 13 %). We conclude that BoD calculations that do not account for multimorbidity can result in an overestimation of the actual BoD. This may affect public health policy strategies that focus on single health conditions if the underlying cost-effectiveness analysis overestimates the intended effects. The methodology used in this study could be further refined to provide greater insight into co-occurrence and the possible consequences of multimorbid conditions in terms of disability for particular combinations of health conditions.

Estimating Dynamical Systems: Derivative Estimation Hints from Sir Ronald A. Fisher

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deboeck, Pascal R.

2010-01-01

The fitting of dynamical systems to psychological data offers the promise of addressing new and innovative questions about how people change over time. One method of fitting dynamical systems is to estimate the derivatives of a time series and then examine the relationships between derivatives using a differential equation model. One common…

Hydrochemical and 14C constraints on groundwater recharge and interbasin flow in an arid watershed: Tule Desert, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagedorn, Benjamin

2015-04-01

Geochemical data deduced from groundwater and vein calcite were used to quantify groundwater recharge and interbasin flow rates in the Tule Desert (southeastern Nevada). 14C age gradients below the water table suggest recharge rates of 1-2 mm/yr which correspond to a sustainable yield of 5 × 10-4 km3/yr to 1 × 10-3 km3/yr. Uncertainties in the applied effective porosity value and increasing horizontal interbasin flow components at greater depths may bias these estimates low compared to those previously reported using the water budget method. The deviation of the groundwater δ18O time-series pattern for the Pleistocene-Holocene transition from that of the Devils Hole vein calcite (which is considered a proxy for local climate change) allows interbasin flow rates of northerly derived groundwater to be estimated. The constrained rates (75.0-120 m/yr) are slightly higher than those previously calculated using Darcy's Law, but translate into hydraulic conductivity values strikingly similar to those obtained from pump tests. Data further indicate that production wells located closer to the western mountainous margin will be producing mainly from locally derived mountain-system recharge whereas wells located closer to the eastern margin are more influenced by older, regionally derived carbonate groundwater.

Modeling mangrove biomass using remote sensing based age and growth estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Feliciano, E. A.; Lee, S. K.; Trettin, C.; Mangora, M.; Rahman, M.

2016-12-01

Mangroves are highly regarded coastal forests because of their ecosystem services and high carbon storage potential. In addition, these forests can develop rapidly in locations where congenial environmental conditions and sediment supply are available. Monitoring the growth and age of developing mangrove forests is crucial for sustainable management and estimating carbon stocks. Combining imagery from radar and optical satellites (e.g., TanDEM-X and Landsat), we can estimate young mangrove growth and age at regional and continental scales. We used TanDEM-X radar interferometry for modeling canopy height in 2013 and Landsat to measure land cover change from 1990 to 2013. Annual NDVI composites were determined for each calendar year between 1990 and 2013. New land areas gained from the transition of water to vegetation were determined by the differences in annual NDVI composites and the reference year 2013. The year of the greatest NDVI difference that met the threshold criteria was used as the initial tree height (0 m). Annual canopy height growth rates were estimated by the duration between land generation times and 2013 canopy height models derived from TanDEM-X and very-high resolution optical data. In this presentation, we compare growth rates and biomass accumulation in mangrove forests at four river deltas; the Zambezi (Mozambique), Rufiji (Tanzania), Ganges (Bangladesh), and Mekong (Vietnam). The spatial patterns of growth rates coincided with characteristic successional paradigms and stream morphology, where the maximum growth rates typically occurred along prograding creek banks. Initial comparisons between height-only and growth-age biomass indicate that the latter tend to overestimate biomass for younger forest stands of similar height. Both the vertical (e.g., canopy height) and horizontal (e.g., expansion) growth rates measured from remote sensing can garner important information regarding mangrove succession and primary productivity. Continued research will combine mangrove growth-age and biomass modeling in other mangrove ecosystems order to resolve the development patterns between different geomorphologies.

Age estimates for the late quaternary high sea-stands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smart, Peter L.; Richards, David A.

A database of more than 300 published alpha-counted uranium-series ages has been compiled for coral reef terraces formed by Late Pleistocene high sea-stands. The database was screened to eliminate unreliable age estimates ( {230Th }/{232Th } < 20, calcite > 5%) and those without quoted without quoted errors, and a distributed error frequency curve was produced. This curve can be considered as a finite mixture model comprising k component normal distributions each with a weighting α. By using an expectation maximising algorithm, the mean and standard deviation of the component distributions, each corresponding to a high sea level event, were estimated. Eight high sea-stands with mean and standard deviations of 129.0 ± 33.0, 123.0 ± 13.0, 102.5 ± 2.0, 81.5 ± 5.0, 61.5 ± 6.0, 50.0 ± 1.0, 40.5 ± 5.0 and 33.0 ± 2.5 ka were resolved. The standard deviations are generally larger than the values quoted for individual age estimates. Whilst this may be due to diagenetic effects, especially for the older corals, it is argued that in many cases geological evidence clearly indicates that the high stands are multiple events, often not resolvable at sites with low rates of uplift. The uranium-series dated coral-reef terrace chronology shows good agreement with independent chronologies derived for Antarctic ice cores, although the resolution for the latter is better. Agreement with orbitally-tuned deep-sea core records is also good, but it is argued that Isotope Stage 5e is not a single event, as recorded in the cores, but a multiple event spanning some 12 ka. The much earlier age for Isotope Stage 5e given by Winograd et al. (1988) is not supported by the coral reef data, but further mass-spectrometric uranium-series dating is needed to permit better chronological resolution.

Rheumatic Heart Disease-Attributable Mortality at Ages 5–69 Years in Fiji: A Five-Year, National, Population-Based Record-Linkage Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Parks, Tom; Kado, Joseph; Miller, Anne E.; Ward, Brenton; Heenan, Rachel; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Bärnighausen, Till W.; Mirabel, Mariana; Bloom, David E.; Bailey, Robin L.; Tukana, Isimeli N.; Steer, Andrew C.

2015-01-01

Background Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is considered a major public health problem in developing countries, although scarce data are available to substantiate this. Here we quantify mortality from RHD in Fiji during 2008–2012 in people aged 5–69 years. Methods and Findings Using 1,773,999 records derived from multiple sources of routine clinical and administrative data, we used probabilistic record-linkage to define a cohort of 2,619 persons diagnosed with RHD, observed for all-cause mortality over 11,538 person-years. Using relative survival methods, we estimated there were 378 RHD-attributable deaths, almost half of which occurred before age 40 years. Using census data as the denominator, we calculated there were 9.9 deaths (95% CI 9.8–10.0) and 331 years of life-lost (YLL, 95% CI 330.4–331.5) due to RHD per 100,000 person-years, standardised to the portion of the WHO World Standard Population aged 0–69 years. Valuing life using Fiji’s per-capita gross domestic product, we estimated these deaths cost United States Dollar $6,077,431 annually. Compared to vital registration data for 2011–2012, we calculated there were 1.6-times more RHD-attributable deaths than the number reported, and found our estimate of RHD mortality exceeded all but the five leading reported causes of premature death, based on collapsed underlying cause-of-death diagnoses. Conclusions Rheumatic heart disease is a leading cause of premature death as well as an important economic burden in this setting. Age-standardised death rates are more than twice those reported in current global estimates. Linkage of routine data provides an efficient tool to better define the epidemiology of neglected diseases. PMID:26371755

Assessing Energy Requirements in Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: A Comparison Against Doubly Labeled Water.

PubMed

Broskey, Nicholas T; Klempel, Monica C; Gilmore, L Anne; Sutton, Elizabeth F; Altazan, Abby D; Burton, Jeffrey H; Ravussin, Eric; Redman, Leanne M

2017-06-01

Weight loss is prescribed to offset the deleterious consequences of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), but a successful intervention requires an accurate assessment of energy requirements. Describe energy requirements in women with PCOS and evaluate common prediction equations compared with doubly labeled water (DLW). Cross-sectional study. Academic research center. Twenty-eight weight-stable women with PCOS completed a 14-day DLW study along with measures of body composition and resting metabolic rate and assessment of physical activity by accelerometry. Total daily energy expenditure (TDEE) determined by DLW. TDEE was 2661 ± 373 kcal/d. TDEE estimated from four commonly used equations was within 4% to 6% of the TDEE measured by DLW. Hyperinsulinemia (fasting insulin and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance) was associated with TDEE estimates from all prediction equations (both r = 0.45; P = 0.02) but was not a significant covariate in a model that predicts TDEE. Similarly, hyperandrogenemia (total testosterone, free androgen index, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate) was not associated with TDEE. In weight-stable women with PCOS, the following equation derived from DLW can be used to determine energy requirements: TDEE (kcal/d) = 438 - [1.6 * Fat Mass (kg)] + [35.1 * Fat-Free Mass (kg)] + [16.2 * Age (y)]; R2 = 0.41; P = 0.005. Established equations using weight, height, and age performed well for predicting energy requirements in weight-stable women with PCOS, but more precise estimates require an accurate assessment of physical activity. Our equation derived from DLW data, which incorporates habitual physical activity, can also be used in women with PCOS; however, additional studies are needed for model validation. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Cost-effectiveness of renin-guided treatment of hypertension.

PubMed

Smith, Steven M; Campbell, Jonathan D

2013-11-01

A plasma renin activity (PRA)-guided strategy is more effective than standard care in treating hypertension (HTN). However, its clinical implementation has been slow, presumably due in part to economic concerns. We estimated the cost effectiveness of a PRA-guided treatment strategy compared with standard care in a treated but uncontrolled HTN population. We estimated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of PRA-guided therapy compared to standard care using a state-transition simulation model with alternate patient characteristic scenarios and sensitivity analyses. Patient-specific inputs for the base case scenario, males average age 63 years, reflected best available data from a recent clinical trial of PRA-guided therapy. Transition probabilities were estimated using Framingham risk equations or derived from the literature; costs and utilities were derived from the literature. In the base case scenario for males, the lifetime discounted costs and QALYs were $23,648 and 12.727 for PRA-guided therapy and $22,077 and 12.618 for standard care, respectively. The base case ICER was $14,497/QALY gained. In alternative scenario analyses varying patient input parameters, the results were sensitive to age, gender, baseline systolic blood pressure, and the addition of cardiovascular risk factors. Univariate sensitivity analyses demonstrated that results were most sensitive to varying the treatment effect of PRA-guided therapy and the cost of the PRA test. Our results suggest that PRA-guided therapy compared with standard care increases QALYs and medical costs in most scenarios. PRA-guided therapy appears to be most cost effective in younger persons and those with more cardiovascular risk factors. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2013. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimation of daily energy expenditure in pregnant and non-pregnant women using a wrist-worn tri-axial accelerometer.

PubMed

van Hees, Vincent T; Renström, Frida; Wright, Antony; Gradmark, Anna; Catt, Michael; Chen, Kong Y; Löf, Marie; Bluck, Les; Pomeroy, Jeremy; Wareham, Nicholas J; Ekelund, Ulf; Brage, Søren; Franks, Paul W

2011-01-01

Few studies have compared the validity of objective measures of physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in pregnant and non-pregnant women. PAEE is commonly estimated with accelerometers attached to the hip or waist, but little is known about the validity and participant acceptability of wrist attachment. The objectives of the current study were to assess the validity of a simple summary measure derived from a wrist-worn accelerometer (GENEA, Unilever Discover, UK) to estimate PAEE in pregnant and non-pregnant women, and to evaluate participant acceptability. Non-pregnant (N = 73) and pregnant (N = 35) Swedish women (aged 20-35 yrs) wore the accelerometer on their wrist for 10 days during which total energy expenditure (TEE) was assessed using doubly-labelled water. PAEE was calculated as 0.9×TEE-REE. British participants (N = 99; aged 22-65 yrs) wore accelerometers on their non-dominant wrist and hip for seven days and were asked to score the acceptability of monitor placement (scored 1 [least] through 10 [most] acceptable). There was no significant correlation between body weight and PAEE. In non-pregnant women, acceleration explained 24% of the variation in PAEE, which decreased to 19% in leave-one-out cross-validation. In pregnant women, acceleration explained 11% of the variation in PAEE, which was not significant in leave-one-out cross-validation. Median (IQR) acceptability of wrist and hip placement was 9(8-10) and 9(7-10), respectively; there was a within-individual difference of 0.47 (p<.001). A simple summary measure derived from a wrist-worn tri-axial accelerometer adds significantly to the prediction of energy expenditure in non-pregnant women and is scored acceptable by participants.

Determination of SB2 masses and age: introduction of the mass ratio in the Bayesian analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giarrusso, M.; Leone, F.; Tognelli, E.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; Prada Moroni, P. G.

2018-04-01

Stellar age assignment still represents a difficult task in Astrophysics. This unobservable fundamental parameter can be estimated only through indirect methods, as well as generally the mass. Bayesian analysis is a statistical approach largely used to derive stellar properties by taking into account the available information about the quantities we are looking for. In this paper we propose to apply the method to the double-lined spectroscopic binaries (SB2), for which the only available information about masses is the observed mass ratio of the two components. We validated the method on a synthetic sample of Pre-Main Sequence (PMS) SB2 systems showing the capability of the technique to recover the simulated age and masses. Then, we applied our procedure to the PMS eclipsing binaries Parenago 1802 and RX J0529.4+0041 A, whose masses of both components are known, by treating them as SB2 systems. The estimated masses are in agreement with those dynamically measured. We conclude that the method, if based on high resolution and high signal-to-noise spectroscopy, represents a robust way to infer the masses of the very numerous SB2 systems together with their age, allowing to date the hosting astrophysical environments.

Determination of SB2 masses and age: introduction of the mass ratio in the Bayesian analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giarrusso, M.; Leone, F.; Tognelli, E.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; Prada Moroni, P. G.

2018-07-01

Stellar age assignment still represents a difficult task in Astrophysics. This unobservable fundamental parameter can be estimated only through indirect methods, as well as generally the mass. Bayesian analysis is a statistical approach largely used to derive stellar properties by taking into account the available information about the quantities we are looking for. In this paper, we propose to apply the method to the double-lined spectroscopic binaries (SB2), for which the only available information about masses is the observed mass ratio of the two components. We validated the method on a synthetic sample of pre-main-sequence (PMS) SB2 systems showing the capability of the technique to recover the simulated age and masses. Then, we applied our procedure to the PMS eclipsing binaries Parenago 1802 and RX J0529.4+0041 A, whose masses of both components are known, by treating them as SB2 systems. The estimated masses are in agreement with those dynamically measured. We conclude that the method, if based on high resolution and high signal-to-noise spectroscopy, represents a robust way to infer the masses of the very numerous SB2 systems together with their age, allowing to date the hosting astrophysical environments.

Precision Orbit Derived Atmospheric Density: Development and Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, C.; Hiatt, A.; Lechtenberg, T.; Fattig, E.; Mehta, P.

2012-09-01

Precision orbit ephemerides (POE) are used to estimate atmospheric density along the orbits of CHAMP (Challenging Minisatellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). The densities are calibrated against accelerometer derived densities and considering ballistic coefficient estimation results. The 14-hour density solutions are stitched together using a linear weighted blending technique to obtain continuous solutions over the entire mission life of CHAMP and through 2011 for GRACE. POE derived densities outperform the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM), Jacchia 71 model, and NRLMSISE-2000 model densities when comparing cross correlation and RMS with accelerometer derived densities. Drag is the largest error source for estimating and predicting orbits for low Earth orbit satellites. This is one of the major areas that should be addressed to improve overall space surveillance capabilities; in particular, catalog maintenance. Generally, density is the largest error source in satellite drag calculations and current empirical density models such as Jacchia 71 and NRLMSISE-2000 have significant errors. Dynamic calibration of the atmosphere (DCA) has provided measurable improvements to the empirical density models and accelerometer derived densities of extremely high precision are available for a few satellites. However, DCA generally relies on observations of limited accuracy and accelerometer derived densities are extremely limited in terms of measurement coverage at any given time. The goal of this research is to provide an additional data source using satellites that have precision orbits available using Global Positioning System measurements and/or satellite laser ranging. These measurements strike a balance between the global coverage provided by DCA and the precise measurements of accelerometers. The temporal resolution of the POE derived density estimates is around 20-30 minutes, which is significantly worse than that of accelerometer derived density estimates. However, major variations in density are observed in the POE derived densities. These POE derived densities in combination with other data sources can be assimilated into physics based general circulation models of the thermosphere and ionosphere with the possibility of providing improved density forecasts for satellite drag analysis. POE derived density estimates were initially developed using CHAMP and GRACE data so comparisons could be made with accelerometer derived density estimates. This paper presents the results of the most extensive calibration of POE derived densities compared to accelerometer derived densities and provides the reasoning for selecting certain parameters in the estimation process. The factors taken into account for these selections are the cross correlation and RMS performance compared to the accelerometer derived densities and the output of the ballistic coefficient estimation that occurs simultaneously with the density estimation. This paper also presents the complete data set of CHAMP and GRACE results and shows that the POE derived densities match the accelerometer densities better than empirical models or DCA. This paves the way to expand the POE derived densities to include other satellites with quality GPS and/or satellite laser ranging observations.

Validation of a novel protocol for calculating estimated energy requirements and average daily physical activity ratio for the US population: 2005-2006.

PubMed

Archer, Edward; Hand, Gregory A; Hébert, James R; Lau, Erica Y; Wang, Xuewen; Shook, Robin P; Fayad, Raja; Lavie, Carl J; Blair, Steven N

2013-12-01

To validate the PAR protocol, a novel method for calculating population-level estimated energy requirements (EERs) and average physical activity ratio (APAR), in a nationally representative sample of US adults. Estimates of EER and APAR values were calculated via a factorial equation from a nationally representative sample of 2597 adults aged 20 and 74 years (US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; data collected between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2006). Validation of the PAR protocol-derived EER (EER(PAR)) values was performed via comparison with values from the Institute of Medicine EER equations (EER(IOM)). The correlation between EER(PAR) and EER(IOM) was high (0.98; P<.001). The difference between EER(PAR) and EER(IOM) values ranged from 40 kcal/d (1.2% higher than EER(IOM)) in obese (body mass index [BMI] ≥30) men to 148 kcal/d (5.7% higher) in obese women. The 2005-2006 EERs for the US population were 2940 kcal/d for men and 2275 kcal/d for women and ranged from 3230 kcal/d in obese (BMI ≥30) men to 2026 kcal/d in normal weight (BMI <25) women. There were significant inverse relationships between APAR and both obesity and age. For men and women, the APAR values were 1.53 and 1.52, respectively. Obese men and women had lower APAR values than normal weight individuals (P¼.023 and P¼.015, respectively) [corrected], and younger individuals had higher APAR values than older individuals (P<.001). The PAR protocol is an accurate method for deriving nationally representative estimates of EER and APAR values. These descriptive data provide novel quantitative baseline values for future investigations into associations of physical activity and health. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nose profile morphology and accuracy study of nose profile estimation method in Scottish subadult and Indonesian adult populations.

PubMed

Sarilita, Erli; Rynn, Christopher; Mossey, Peter A; Black, Sue; Oscandar, Fahmi

2018-05-01

This study investigated nose profile morphology and its relationship to the skull in Scottish subadult and Indonesian adult populations, with the aim of improving the accuracy of forensic craniofacial reconstruction. Samples of 86 lateral head cephalograms from Dundee Dental School (mean age, 11.8 years) and 335 lateral head cephalograms from the Universitas Padjadjaran Dental Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia (mean age 24.2 years), were measured. The method of nose profile estimation based on skull morphology previously proposed by Rynn and colleagues in 2010 (FSMP 6:20-34) was tested in this study. Following this method, three nasal aperture-related craniometrics and six nose profile dimensions were measured from the cephalograms. To assess the accuracy of the method, six nose profile dimensions were estimated from the three craniometric parameters using the published method and then compared to the actual nose profile dimensions.In the Scottish subadult population, no sexual dimorphism was evident in the measured dimensions. In contrast, sexual dimorphism of the Indonesian adult population was evident in all craniometric and nose profile dimensions; notably, males exhibited statistically significant larger values than females. The published method by Rynn and colleagues (FSMP 6:20-34, 2010) performed better in the Scottish subadult population (mean difference of maximum, 2.35 mm) compared to the Indonesian adult population (mean difference of maximum, 5.42 mm in males and 4.89 mm in females).In addition, regression formulae were derived to estimate nose profile dimensions based on the craniometric measurements for the Indonesian adult population. The published method is not sufficiently accurate for use on the Indonesian population, so the derived method should be used. The accuracy of the published method by Rynn and colleagues (FSMP 6:20-34, 2010) was sufficiently reliable to be applied in Scottish subadult population.

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models.

PubMed

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W Paul; Frush, Donald P; Paulson, Erik K; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-21

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Paulson, Erik K.; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-01

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Using cumulative diet data and stable isotope analysis to determine trophic position of walleye Sander vitreus in a large, complex system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fincel, Mark J.; James, Daniel A.; Chipps, Steven R.; Davis, Blake A.

2014-01-01

Diet studies have traditionally been used to determine prey use and food web dynamics, while stable isotope analysis provides for a time-integrated approach to evaluate food web dynamics and characterize energy flow in aquatic systems. Direct comparison of the two techniques is rare and difficult to conduct in large, species rich systems. We compared changes in walleye Sander vitreus trophic position (TP) derived from paired diet content and stable isotope analysis. Individual diet-derived TP estimates were dissimilar to stable isotope-derived TP estimates. However, cumulative diet-derived TP estimates integrated from May 2001 to May 2002 corresponded to May 2002 isotope-derived estimates of TP. Average walleye TP estimates from the spring season appear representative of feeding throughout the entire previous year.

Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. Methods We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). Conclusions The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and lung cancer type in the epidemiological database, changes over time in diagnosis of lung cancer types, lack of national representativeness of some studies, and regional variation in smoking misclassification. However, the results seem consistent with the literature, and provide additional information on variability by time and region, including evidence of a rise in never smoker adenocarcinoma rates relative to squamous cell carcinoma rates. PMID:23570286

Determination of longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives using flight data from an icing research aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranaudo, R. J.; Batterson, J. G.; Reehorst, A. L.; Bond, T. H.; Omara, T. M.

1989-01-01

A flight test was performed with the NASA Lewis Research Center's DH-6 icing research aircraft. The purpose was to employ a flight test procedure and data analysis method, to determine the accuracy with which the effects of ice on aircraft stability and control could be measured. For simplicity, flight testing was restricted to the short period longitudinal mode. Two flights were flown in a clean (baseline) configuration, and two flights were flown with simulated horizontal tail ice. Forty-five repeat doublet maneuvers were performed in each of four test configurations, at a given trim speed, to determine the ensemble variation of the estimated stability and control derivatives. Additional maneuvers were also performed in each configuration, to determine the variation in the longitudinal derivative estimates over a wide range of trim speeds. Stability and control derivatives were estimated by a Modified Stepwise Regression (MSR) technique. A measure of the confidence in the derivative estimates was obtained by comparing the standard error for the ensemble of repeat maneuvers, to the average of the estimated standard errors predicted by the MSR program. A multiplicative relationship was determined between the ensemble standard error, and the averaged program standard errors. In addition, a 95 percent confidence interval analysis was performed for the elevator effectiveness estimates, C sub m sub delta e. This analysis identified the speed range where changes in C sub m sub delta e could be attributed to icing effects. The magnitude of icing effects on the derivative estimates were strongly dependent on flight speed and aircraft wing flap configuration. With wing flaps up, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at lower speeds corresponding to that configuration. With wing flaps extended to 10 degrees, the estimated derivatives were degraded most at the higher corresponding speeds. The effects of icing on the changes in longitudinal stability and control derivatives were adequately determined by the flight test procedure and the MSR analysis method discussed herein.

Heterogeneous terrain: a challenge to derive evapotranspiration with remote sensing and scintillometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiem, Christina; Sun, Liya; Müller, Benjamin; Bernhardt, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten

2014-05-01

Despite the importance of evapotranspiration for Meteorology, Hydrology and Agronomy, obtaining area-averaged evapotranspiration estimates is cost as well as maintenance intensive: usually area-averaged evapotranspiration estimates are obtained by distributed sensor networks or remotely sensed with a scintillometer. A low cost alternative for evapotranspiration estimates are satellite images, as many of them are freely available. This approach has been proven to be worthwhile above homogeneous terrain, and typically evapotranspiration data obtained with scintillometry are applied for validation. We will extend this approach to heterogeneous terrain: evapotranspiration estimates from ASTER 2013 images will be compared to scintillometer derived evapotranspiration estimates. The goodness of the correlation will be presented as well as an uncertainty estimation for both the ASTER derived and the scintillometer derived evapotranspiration.

Comparison of several methods for estimating low speed stability derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fletcher, H. S.

1971-01-01

Methods presented in five different publications have been used to estimate the low-speed stability derivatives of two unpowered airplane configurations. One configuration had unswept lifting surfaces, the other configuration was the D-558-II swept-wing research airplane. The results of the computations were compared with each other, with existing wind-tunnel data, and with flight-test data for the D-558-II configuration to assess the relative merits of the methods for estimating derivatives. The results of the study indicated that, in general, for low subsonic speeds, no one text appeared consistently better for estimating all derivatives.

The mouse age phenome knowledgebase and disease-specific inter-species age mapping.

PubMed

Geifman, Nophar; Rubin, Eitan

2013-01-01

Similarities between mice and humans lead to generation of many mouse models of human disease. However, differences between the species often result in mice being unreliable as preclinical models for human disease. One difference that might play a role in lowering the predictivity of mice models to human diseases is age. Despite the important role age plays in medicine, it is too often considered only casually when considering mouse models. We developed the mouse-Age Phenotype Knowledgebase, which holds knowledge about age-related phenotypic patterns in mice. The knowledgebase was extensively populated with literature-derived data using text mining techniques. We then mapped between ages in humans and mice by comparing the age distribution pattern for 887 diseases in both species. The knowledgebase was populated with over 9800 instances generated by a text-mining pipeline. The quality of the data was manually evaluated, and was found to be of high accuracy (estimated precision >86%). Furthermore, grouping together diseases that share similar age patterns in mice resulted in clusters that mirror actual biomedical knowledge. Using these data, we matched age distribution patterns in mice and in humans, allowing for age differences by shifting either of the patterns. High correlation (r(2)>0.5) was found for 223 diseases. The results clearly indicate a difference in the age mapping between different diseases: age 30 years in human is mapped to 120 days in mice for Leukemia, but to 295 days for Anemia. Based on these results we generated a mice-to-human age map which is publicly available. We present here the development of the mouse-APK, its population with literature-derived data and its use to map ages in mice and human for 223 diseases. These results present a further step made to bridging the gap between humans and mice in biomedical research.

Development of demi-span equations for predicting height among the Malaysian elderly.

PubMed

Ngoh, H J; Sakinah, H; Harsa Amylia, M S

2012-08-01

This study aimed to develop demi-span equations for predicting height in the Malaysian elderly and to explore the applicability of previous published demi-span equations derived from adult populations to the elderly. A cross-sectional study was conducted on Malaysian elderly aged 60 years and older. Subjects were residents of eight shelter homes in Peninsular Malaysia; 204 men and 124 women of Malay, Chinese and Indian ethnicity were included. Measurements of weight, height and demi-span were obtained using standard procedures. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 18.0. The demi-span equations obtained were as follows: Men: Height (cm) = 67.51 + (1.29 x demi-span) - (0.12 x age) + 4.13; Women: Height (cm) = 67.51 + (1.29 x demi-span) - (0.12 x age). Height predicted from these new equations demonstrated good agreement with measured height and no significant differences were found between the mean values of predicted and measured heights in either gender (p>0.05). However, the heights predicted from previous published adult-derived demi-span equations failed to yield good agreement with the measured height of the elderly; significant over-estimation and underestimation of heights tended to occur (p>0.05). The new demi-span equations allow prediction of height with sufficient accuracy in the Malaysian elderly. However, further validation on other elderly samples is needed. Also, we recommend caution when using adult-derived demi-span equations to predict height in elderly people.

Mapping for maternal and newborn health: the distributions of women of childbearing age, pregnancies and births.

PubMed

Tatem, Andrew J; Campbell, James; Guerra-Arias, Maria; de Bernis, Luc; Moran, Allisyn; Matthews, Zoë

2014-01-04

The health and survival of women and their new-born babies in low income countries has been a key priority in public health since the 1990s. However, basic planning data, such as numbers of pregnancies and births, remain difficult to obtain and information is also lacking on geographic access to key services, such as facilities with skilled health workers. For maternal and newborn health and survival, planning for safer births and healthier newborns could be improved by more accurate estimations of the distributions of women of childbearing age. Moreover, subnational estimates of projected future numbers of pregnancies are needed for more effective strategies on human resources and infrastructure, while there is a need to link information on pregnancies to better information on health facilities in districts and regions so that coverage of services can be assessed. This paper outlines demographic mapping methods based on freely available data for the production of high resolution datasets depicting estimates of numbers of people, women of childbearing age, live births and pregnancies, and distribution of comprehensive EmONC facilities in four large high burden countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Satellite derived maps of settlements and land cover were constructed and used to redistribute areal census counts to produce detailed maps of the distributions of women of childbearing age. Household survey data, UN statistics and other sources on growth rates, age specific fertility rates, live births, stillbirths and abortions were then integrated to convert the population distribution datasets to gridded estimates of births and pregnancies. These estimates, which can be produced for current, past or future years based on standard demographic projections, can provide the basis for strategic intelligence, planning services, and provide denominators for subnational indicators to track progress. The datasets produced are part of national midwifery workforce assessments conducted in collaboration with the respective Ministries of Health and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) to identify disparities between population needs, health infrastructure and workforce supply. The datasets are available to the respective Ministries as part of the UNFPA programme to inform midwifery workforce planning and also publicly available through the WorldPop population mapping project.

Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, Niel; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

1998-01-01

Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improve-ments in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR?s) for the study area. The HGMR?s are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC?s) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additi-onal data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water discharging from 30 of the 46 springs sampled were less than 20 years, including 5 that were 'modern' (0-4 years). Four samples had apparent ages of 22 to 34 years, and two others from thermal springs were 40 years or greater. The remaining ten samples were contaminated with local sources of CFC and could not be dated. Nitrate concentrations and nitrate delta 15 nitrogen (15N) values in water from many springs are similar to those in shallow ground water beneath fertilized fields, and some values are high enough to indicate a probable source from animal-waste components. The nitrogen data reported here highlight the significance of the springs sampled during this study as pathways for nutrient transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Ground-water samples were collected from springs during an unusually high flow period and thus may not be representative of low base-flow conditions. Residence times estimated from plausible ranges of aquifer properties and results of previous age-dating analyses generally corroborate the apparent-age analysis made in the current study and suggests that some residence times could be much longer. The shortest residence times tend to be in the Blue Ridge and northern carbonate areas; however, the data are preliminary and not appropriate for statistical tests of significance or variance. Because the age distributions in the aquifer discharging to the springs are not known, and because the apparent ages of water from the springs are based on various com-binations of CFC criteria, the apparent ages and calculated residence times are compared for illustrative purposes but are considered preliminary until further work is accomplished.

A novel case-control design to estimate the extent of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to organised population-based mammography screening.

PubMed

Beckmann, Kerri R; Lynch, John W; Hiller, Janet E; Farshid, Gelareh; Houssami, Nehmat; Duffy, Stephen W; Roder, David M

2015-03-15

Debate about the extent of breast cancer over-diagnosis due to mammography screening has continued for over a decade, without consensus. Estimates range from 0 to 54%, but many studies have been criticized for having flawed methodology. In this study we used a novel study design to estimate over-diagnosis due to organised mammography screening in South Australia (SA). To estimate breast cancer incidence at and following screening we used a population-based, age-matched case-control design involving 4,931 breast cancer cases and 22,914 controls to obtain OR for yearly time intervals since women's last screening mammogram. The level of over-diagnosis was estimated by comparing the cumulative breast cancer incidence with and without screening. The former was derived by applying ORs for each time window to incidence rates in the absence of screening, and the latter, by projecting pre-screening incidence rates. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess potential biases. Over-diagnosis was estimated to be 8% (95%CI 2-14%) and 14% (95%CI 8-19%) among SA women aged 45 to 85 years from 2006-2010, for invasive breast cancer and all breast cancer respectively. These estimates were robust when applying various sensitivity analyses, except for adjustment for potential confounding assuming higher risk among screened than non-screened women, which reduced levels of over-diagnosis to 1% (95%CI 5-7%) and 8% (95%CI 2-14%) respectively when incidence rates for screening participants were adjusted by 10%. Our results indicate that the level of over-diagnosis due to mammography screening is modest and considerably lower than many previous estimates, including others for Australia. © 2014 UICC.

Stroke mortality variations in South-East Asia: empirical evidence from the field.

PubMed

Hoy, Damian G; Rao, Chalapati; Hoa, Nguyen Phuong; Suhardi, S; Lwin, Aye Moe Moe

2013-10-01

Stroke is a leading cause of death in Asia; however, many estimates of stroke mortality are based on epidemiological models rather than empirical data. Since 2005, initiatives have been undertaken in a number of Asian countries to strengthen and analyse vital registration data. This has increased the availability of empirical data on stroke mortality. The aim of this paper is to present estimates of stroke mortality for Indonesia, Myanmar, Viet Nam, Thailand, and Malaysia, which have been derived using these empirical data. Age-specific stroke mortality rates were calculated in each of the five countries, and adjusted for data completeness or misclassification where feasible. All data were age-standardized and the resulting rates were compared with World Health Organization estimates, which are largely based on epidemiological models. Using empirical data, stroke ranked as the leading cause of death in all countries except Malaysia, where it ranked as the second leading cause. Age-standardized rates for males ranged from 94 per 100,000 in Thailand, to over 300 per 100,000 in Indonesia. In all countries, rates were higher for males than for females, and those compiled from empirical data were generally higher than modelled estimates published by World Health Organization. This study highlights the extent of stroke mortality in selected Asian countries, and provides important baseline information to investigate the aetiology of stroke in Asia and design appropriate public health strategies to address the rapidly growing burden from stroke. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

Practical aspects of modeling aircraft dynamics from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

1984-01-01

The purpose of parameter estimation, a subset of system identification, is to estimate the coefficients (such as stability and control derivatives) of the aircraft differential equations of motion from sampled measured dynamic responses. In the past, the primary reason for estimating stability and control derivatives from flight tests was to make comparisons with wind tunnel estimates. As aircraft became more complex, and as flight envelopes were expanded to include flight regimes that were not well understood, new requirements for the derivative estimates evolved. For many years, the flight determined derivatives were used in simulations to aid in flight planning and in pilot training. The simulations were particularly important in research flight test programs in which an envelope expansion into new flight regimes was required. Parameter estimation techniques for estimating stability and control derivatives from flight data became more sophisticated to support the flight test programs. As knowledge of these new flight regimes increased, more complex aircraft were flown. Much of this increased complexity was in sophisticated flight control systems. The design and refinement of the control system required higher fidelity simulations than were previously required.

The global status of freshwater fish age validation studies and a prioritization framework for future research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Kevin L.; Hamel, Martin J.; Pegg, Mark A.; Spurgeon, Jonathan J.

2016-01-01

Age information derived from calcified structures is commonly used to estimate recruitment, growth, and mortality for fish populations. Validation of daily or annual marks on age structures is often assumed, presumably due to a lack of general knowledge concerning the status of age validation studies. Therefore, the current status of freshwater fish age validation studies was summarized to show where additional effort is needed, and increase the accessibility of validation studies to researchers. In total, 1351 original peer-reviewed articles were reviewed from freshwater systems that studied age in fish. Periodicity and age validation studies were found for 88 freshwater species comprising 21 fish families. The number of age validation studies has increased over the last 30 years following previous calls for more research; however, few species have validated structures spanning all life stages. In addition, few fishes of conservation concern have validated ageing structures. A prioritization framework, using a combination of eight characteristics, is offered to direct future age validation studies and close the validation information gap. Additional study, using the offered prioritization framework, and increased availability of published studies that incorporate uncertainty when presenting research results dealing with age information are needed.

Analysis of impact crater populations and the geochronology of planetary surfaces in the inner solar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fassett, Caleb I.

2016-10-01

Analyzing the density of impact craters on planetary surfaces is the only known technique for learning their ages remotely. As a result, crater statistics have been widely analyzed on the terrestrial planets, since the timing and rates of activity are critical to understanding geologic process and history. On the Moon, the samples obtained by the Apollo and Luna missions provide critical calibration points for cratering chronology. On Mercury, Venus, and Mars, there are no similarly firm anchors for cratering rates, but chronology models have been established by extrapolating from the lunar record or by estimating their impactor fluxes in other ways. This review provides a current perspective on crater population measurements and their chronological interpretation. Emphasis is placed on how ages derived from crater statistics may be contingent on assumptions that need to be considered critically. In addition, ages estimated from crater populations are somewhat different than ages from more familiar geochronology tools (e.g., radiometric dating). Resurfacing processes that remove craters from the observed population are particularly challenging to account for, since they can introduce geologic uncertainty into results or destroy information about the formation age of a surface. Regardless of these challenges, crater statistics measurements have resulted in successful predictions later verified by other techniques, including the age of the lunar maria, the existence of a period of heavy bombardment in the Moon's first billion years, and young volcanism on Mars.

Growth curves of preschool children in the northeast of iran: a population based study using quantile regression approach.

PubMed

Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

2013-01-14

Growth charts are widely used to assess children's growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children's weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn't require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values.

Hatching and fledging times from grassland passerine nests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pietz, Pamela J.; Granfors, Diane A.; Grant, Todd A.; Ribic, Christine A.; Thompson, Frank R.; Pietz, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

1 day and was positively correlated with clutch size. Length of the fledging period for a brood was usually Accurate estimates of fledging age are needed in field studies to avoid inducing premature fledging or missing the fledging event. Both may lead to misinterpretation of nest fate. Correctly assessing nest fate and length of the nestling period can be critical for accurate calculation of nest survival rates. For researchers who mark nestlings, knowing the age at which their activities may cause young to leave nests prematurely could prevent introducing bias to their studies. We obtained estimates of fledging age using data from grassland bird nests monitored from hatching through fledging with video-surveillance systems in North Dakota and Minnesota during 1996–2001. We compared these values to those obtained from traditional nest visits and from available literature. Mean and modal fledging ages for video-monitored nests were generally similar to those for visited nests, although Clay-colored Sparrows (Spizella pallida) typically fledged 1 day earlier from visited nests. Average fledging ages from both video and nest visits occurred within ranges reported in the literature, but expanded by 1–2 days the upper age limit for Clay-colored Sparrows and the lower age limit for Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). Video showed that eggs hatched throughout the day whereas most young fledged in the morning (06:30–12:30 CDT). Length of the hatching period for a clutch was usually >1 day and was positively correlated with clutch size. Length of the fledging period for a brood was usually <1 day, and in nearly half the nests, fledging was completed within <2 hr. Video surveillance has proven to be a useful tool for providing new information and for corroborating published statements related to hatching and fledging chronology. Comparison of data collected from video and nest visits showed that carefully conducted nest visits generally can provide reliable data for deriving estimates of survival.

Growth Curves of Preschool Children in the Northeast of Iran: A Population Based Study Using Quantile Regression Approach

PubMed Central

Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

2013-01-01

Introduction: Growth charts are widely used to assess children’s growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. Methods: A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. Results: The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children’s weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. Conclusion: The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn’t require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values. PMID:23618470

Comparison of two high-dose cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone derived regimens in patients aged under 60 years with low-intermediate risk aggressive lymphoma: a final analysis of the multicenter LNH93-2 protocol.

PubMed

Morel, Pierre; Munck, Jean-Nicolas; Coiffier, Bertrand; Gisselbrecht, Christian; Ranta, Dana; Bosly, Andre; Tilly, Hervé; Quesnel, Bruno; Thyss, Antoine; Mounier, Nicolas; Brière, Josette; Molina, Thierry; Reyes, Felix

2010-09-01

One-third of patients aged

Global data on visual impairment in the year 2002.

PubMed Central

Resnikoff, Serge; Pascolini, Donatella; Etya'ale, Daniel; Kocur, Ivo; Pararajasegaram, Ramachandra; Pokharel, Gopal P.; Mariotti, Silvio P.

2004-01-01

This paper presents estimates of the prevalence of visual impairment and its causes in 2002, based on the best available evidence derived from recent studies. Estimates were determined from data on low vision and blindness as defined in the International statistical classification of diseases, injuries and causes of death, 10th revision. The number of people with visual impairment worldwide in 2002 was in excess of 161 million, of whom about 37 million were blind. The burden of visual impairment is not distributed uniformly throughout the world: the least developed regions carry the largest share. Visual impairment is also unequally distributed across age groups, being largely confined to adults 50 years of age and older. A distribution imbalance is also found with regard to gender throughout the world: females have a significantly higher risk of having visual impairment than males. Notwithstanding the progress in surgical intervention that has been made in many countries over the last few decades, cataract remains the leading cause of visual impairment in all regions of the world, except in the most developed countries. Other major causes of visual impairment are, in order of importance, glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy and trachoma. PMID:15640920

Global data on visual impairment in the year 2002.

PubMed

Resnikoff, Serge; Pascolini, Donatella; Etya'ale, Daniel; Kocur, Ivo; Pararajasegaram, Ramachandra; Pokharel, Gopal P; Mariotti, Silvio P

2004-11-01

This paper presents estimates of the prevalence of visual impairment and its causes in 2002, based on the best available evidence derived from recent studies. Estimates were determined from data on low vision and blindness as defined in the International statistical classification of diseases, injuries and causes of death, 10th revision. The number of people with visual impairment worldwide in 2002 was in excess of 161 million, of whom about 37 million were blind. The burden of visual impairment is not distributed uniformly throughout the world: the least developed regions carry the largest share. Visual impairment is also unequally distributed across age groups, being largely confined to adults 50 years of age and older. A distribution imbalance is also found with regard to gender throughout the world: females have a significantly higher risk of having visual impairment than males. Notwithstanding the progress in surgical intervention that has been made in many countries over the last few decades, cataract remains the leading cause of visual impairment in all regions of the world, except in the most developed countries. Other major causes of visual impairment are, in order of importance, glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy and trachoma.

Moho map of South America from receiver functions and surface waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloyd, Simon; van der Lee, Suzan; FrançA, George Sand; AssumpçãO, Marcelo; Feng, Mei

2010-11-01

We estimate crustal structure and thickness of South America north of roughly 40°S. To this end, we analyzed receiver functions from 20 relatively new temporary broadband seismic stations deployed across eastern Brazil. In the analysis we include teleseismic and some regional events, particularly for stations that recorded few suitable earthquakes. We first estimate crustal thickness and average Poisson's ratio using two different stacking methods. We then combine the new crustal constraints with results from previous receiver function studies. To interpolate the crustal thickness between the station locations, we jointly invert these Moho point constraints, Rayleigh wave group velocities, and regional S and Rayleigh waveforms for a continuous map of Moho depth. The new tomographic Moho map suggests that Moho depth and Moho relief vary slightly with age within the Precambrian crust. Whether or not a positive correlation between crustal thickness and geologic age is derived from the pre-interpolation point constraints depends strongly on the selected subset of receiver functions. This implies that using only pre-interpolation point constraints (receiver functions) inadequately samples the spatial variation in geologic age. The new Moho map also reveals an anomalously deep Moho beneath the oldest core of the Amazonian Craton.

Apollo 14 regolith breccias - Different glass populations and their potential for charting space time variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delano, John W.

1988-01-01

Apollo 14 regolith breccias (14313, 14307, 14301, 14049, 14047) have been found to have different populations of nonagglutinitic, mare-derived glasses. These variations appear to not only reflect different source regoliths but also different closure ages for these breccias. Based upon these different glass populations, 14301 is inferred to have a closure age sometime during the epoch of mare volcanism. All of the other four breccias were formed after the termination of mare volcanism with a possible age sequence from old to young of the following: 14307, 14313, 14049, 14047. Due to the relative simplicity of acquiring high-quality chemical data on large numbers of glasses by electron microprobe, mare glass populations allow: (1) classification of regolith breccias with respect to provenance and (2) estimation of their relative and absolute closure ages. The determination of (Ar-40)-(Ar-39) ages on individual glass spherules within breccias using the laser probe should in the future prove to be a promising extension of the present study.

Epidemiology of hepatitis B infection in Liberian infants.

PubMed

Prince, A M; White, T; Pollock, N; Riddle, J; Brotman, B; Richardson, L

1981-05-01

To provide background for a hepatitis B vaccine efficacy trial, sera were collected from 0- to 4-year-old Liberian infants and their mothers, on two occasions an average of 14.75 months apart, and tested for serological markers of hepatitis B virus infection. The prevalence of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was 2.9% in the 0- to 6-month age group and 23% in infants 3 to 4 years of age. HBsAg persisted for the 14.75-month average follow-up period in 80.8% of the infants tested. The annual incidence of development of HBsAg was 18.9% for infants less than 1 year of age and 13.6% in infants 3 to 4 years of age. Infants born to HBsAg carrier mothers had significantly higher age-specific prevalence and incidence of hepatitis B virus infection. However, it was estimated that only a minor proportion of hepatitis B infections in Liberia are derived by vertical transmission from carrier mothers.

Epidemiology of hepatitis B infection in Liberian infants.

PubMed Central

Prince, A M; White, T; Pollock, N; Riddle, J; Brotman, B; Richardson, L

1981-01-01

To provide background for a hepatitis B vaccine efficacy trial, sera were collected from 0- to 4-year-old Liberian infants and their mothers, on two occasions an average of 14.75 months apart, and tested for serological markers of hepatitis B virus infection. The prevalence of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was 2.9% in the 0- to 6-month age group and 23% in infants 3 to 4 years of age. HBsAg persisted for the 14.75-month average follow-up period in 80.8% of the infants tested. The annual incidence of development of HBsAg was 18.9% for infants less than 1 year of age and 13.6% in infants 3 to 4 years of age. Infants born to HBsAg carrier mothers had significantly higher age-specific prevalence and incidence of hepatitis B virus infection. However, it was estimated that only a minor proportion of hepatitis B infections in Liberia are derived by vertical transmission from carrier mothers. PMID:7251143

Comparison of flavonoid intake assessment methods.

PubMed

Ivey, Kerry L; Croft, Kevin; Prince, Richard L; Hodgson, Jonathan M

2016-09-14

Flavonoids are a diverse group of polyphenolic compounds found in high concentrations in many plant foods and beverages. High flavonoid intake has been associated with reduced risk of chronic disease. To date, population based studies have used the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) food content database to determine habitual flavonoid intake. More recently, a new flavonoid food content database, Phenol-Explorer (PE), has been developed. However, the level of agreement between the two databases is yet to be explored. To compare the methods used to create each database, and to explore the level of agreement between the flavonoid intake estimates derived from USDA and PE data. The study population included 1063 randomly selected women aged over 75 years. Two separate intake estimates were determined using food composition data from the USDA and the PE databases. There were many similarities in methods used to create each database; however, there are several methodological differences that manifest themselves in differences in flavonoid intake estimates between the 2 databases. Despite differences in net estimates, there was a strong level of agreement between total-flavonoid, flavanol, flavanone and anthocyanidin intake estimates derived from each database. Intake estimates for flavanol monomers showed greater agreement than flavanol polymers. The level of agreement between the two databases was the weakest for the flavonol and flavone intake estimates. In this population, the application of USDA and PE source data yielded highly correlated intake estimates for total-flavonoids, flavanols, flavanones and anthocyanidins. For these sub-classes, the USDA and PE databases may be used interchangeably in epidemiological investigations. There was poorer correlation between intake estimates for flavonols and flavones due to differences in USDA and PE methodologies. Individual flavonoid compound groups that comprise flavonoid sub-classes had varying levels of agreement. As such, when determining the appropriate database to calculate flavonoid intake variables, it is important to consider methodologies underpinning database creation and which foods are important contributors to dietary intake in the population of interest.

Estimating Divergence Dates and Substitution Rates in the Drosophila Phylogeny

PubMed Central

Obbard, Darren J.; Maclennan, John; Kim, Kang-Wook; Rambaut, Andrew; O’Grady, Patrick M.; Jiggins, Francis M.

2012-01-01

An absolute timescale for evolution is essential if we are to associate evolutionary phenomena, such as adaptation or speciation, with potential causes, such as geological activity or climatic change. Timescales in most phylogenetic studies use geologically dated fossils or phylogeographic events as calibration points, but more recently, it has also become possible to use experimentally derived estimates of the mutation rate as a proxy for substitution rates. The large radiation of drosophilid taxa endemic to the Hawaiian islands has provided multiple calibration points for the Drosophila phylogeny, thanks to the "conveyor belt" process by which this archipelago forms and is colonized by species. However, published date estimates for key nodes in the Drosophila phylogeny vary widely, and many are based on simplistic models of colonization and coalescence or on estimates of island age that are not current. In this study, we use new sequence data from seven species of Hawaiian Drosophila to examine a range of explicit coalescent models and estimate substitution rates. We use these rates, along with a published experimentally determined mutation rate, to date key events in drosophilid evolution. Surprisingly, our estimate for the date for the most recent common ancestor of the genus Drosophila based on mutation rate (25–40 Ma) is closer to being compatible with independent fossil-derived dates (20–50 Ma) than are most of the Hawaiian-calibration models and also has smaller uncertainty. We find that Hawaiian-calibrated dates are extremely sensitive to model choice and give rise to point estimates that range between 26 and 192 Ma, depending on the details of the model. Potential problems with the Hawaiian calibration may arise from systematic variation in the molecular clock due to the long generation time of Hawaiian Drosophila compared with other Drosophila and/or uncertainty in linking island formation dates with colonization dates. As either source of error will bias estimates of divergence time, we suggest mutation rate estimates be used until better models are available. PMID:22683811

Optically-derived estimates of phytoplankton size class and taxonomic group biomass in the Eastern Subarctic Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Chen; Rosengard, Sarah Z.; Burt, William; Peña, M. Angelica; Nemcek, Nina; Zeng, Tao; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Tortell, Philippe D.

2018-06-01

We evaluate several algorithms for the estimation of phytoplankton size class (PSC) and functional type (PFT) biomass from ship-based optical measurements in the Subarctic Northeast Pacific Ocean. Using underway measurements of particulate absorption and backscatter in surface waters, we derived estimates of PSC/PFT based on chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl-a), particulate absorption spectra and the wavelength dependence of particulate backscatter. Optically-derived [Chl-a] and phytoplankton absorption measurements were validated against discrete calibration samples, while the derived PSC/PFT estimates were validated using size-fractionated Chl-a measurements and HPLC analysis of diagnostic photosynthetic pigments (DPA). Our results showflo that PSC/PFT algorithms based on [Chl-a] and particulate absorption spectra performed significantly better than the backscatter slope approach. These two more successful algorithms yielded estimates of phytoplankton size classes that agreed well with HPLC-derived DPA estimates (RMSE = 12.9%, and 16.6%, respectively) across a range of hydrographic and productivity regimes. Moreover, the [Chl-a] algorithm produced PSC estimates that agreed well with size-fractionated [Chl-a] measurements, and estimates of the biomass of specific phytoplankton groups that were consistent with values derived from HPLC. Based on these results, we suggest that simple [Chl-a] measurements should be more fully exploited to improve the classification of phytoplankton assemblages in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.

Estimation of stature from radiologic anthropometry of the lumbar vertebral dimensions in Chinese.

PubMed

Zhang, Kui; Chang, Yun-feng; Fan, Fei; Deng, Zhen-hua

2015-11-01

The recent study was to assess the relationship between the radiologic anthropometry of the lumbar vertebral dimensions and stature in Chinese and to develop regression formulae to estimate stature from these dimensions. A total of 412 normal, healthy volunteers, comprising 206 males and 206 females, were recruited. The linear regression analysis were performed to assess the correlation between the stature and lengths of various segments of the lumbar vertebral column. Among the regression equations created for single variable, the predictive value was greatest for the reconstruction of stature from the lumbar segment in both sexes and subgroup analysis. When individual vertebral body was used, the heights of posterior vertebral body of L3 gave the most accurate results for male group, the heights of central vertebral body of L1 provided the most accurate results for female group and female group with age above 45 years, the heights of central vertebral body of L3 gave the most accurate results for the groups with age from 20-45 years for both sexes and the male group with age above 45 years. The heights of anterior vertebral body of L5 gave the less accurate results except for the heights of anterior vertebral body of L4 provided the less accurate result for the male group with age above 45 years. As expected, multiple regression equations were more successful than equations derived from a single variable. The research observations suggest lumbar vertebral dimensions to be useful in stature estimation among Chinese population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kriging and local polynomial methods for blending satellite-derived and gauge precipitation estimates to support hydrologic early warning systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William

2016-01-01

Robust estimates of precipitation in space and time are important for efficient natural resource management and for mitigating natural hazards. This is particularly true in regions with developing infrastructure and regions that are frequently exposed to extreme events. Gauge observations of rainfall are sparse but capture the precipitation process with high fidelity. Due to its high resolution and complete spatial coverage, satellite-derived rainfall data are an attractive alternative in data-sparse regions and are often used to support hydrometeorological early warning systems. Satellite-derived precipitation data, however, tend to underrepresent extreme precipitation events. Thus, it is often desirable to blend spatially extensive satellite-derived rainfall estimates with high-fidelity rain gauge observations to obtain more accurate precipitation estimates. In this research, we use two different methods, namely, ordinary kriging and κ-nearest neighbor local polynomials, to blend rain gauge observations with the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates in data-sparse Central America and Colombia. The utility of these methods in producing blended precipitation estimates at pentadal (five-day) and monthly time scales is demonstrated. We find that these blending methods significantly improve the satellite-derived estimates and are competitive in their ability to capture extreme precipitation.

Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.

2001-01-01

Knowledge of population size and trend is necessary to manage anthropogenic risks to polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Despite capturing over 1,025 females between 1967 and 1998, previously calculated estimates of the size of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) population have been unreliable. We improved estimates of numbers of polar bears by modeling heterogeneity in capture probability with covariates. Important covariates referred to the year of the study, age of the bear, capture effort, and geographic location. Our choice of best approximating model was based on the inverse relationship between variance in parameter estimates and likelihood of the fit and suggested a growth from ≈ 500 to over 1,000 females during this study. The mean coefficient of variation on estimates for the last decade of the study was 0.16—the smallest yet derived. A similar model selection approach is recommended for other projects where a best model is not identified by likelihood criteria alone.

Longitudinal changes of telomere length and epigenetic age related to traumatic stress and post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Boks, Marco P; van Mierlo, Hans C; Rutten, Bart P F; Radstake, Timothy R D J; De Witte, Lot; Geuze, Elbert; Horvath, Steve; Schalkwyk, Leonard C; Vinkers, Christiaan H; Broen, Jasper C A; Vermetten, Eric

2015-01-01

Several studies have reported an association between traumatic stress and telomere length suggesting that traumatic stress has an impact on ageing at the cellular level. A newly derived tool provides an additional means to investigate cellular ageing by estimating epigenetic age based on DNA methylation profiles. We therefore hypothesise that in a longitudinal study of traumatic stress both indicators of cellular ageing will show increased ageing. We expect that particularly in individuals that developed symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) increases in these ageing parameters would stand out. From an existing longitudinal cohort study, ninety-six male soldiers were selected based on trauma exposure and the presence of symptoms of PTSD. All military personnel were deployed in a combat zone in Afghanistan and assessed before and 6 months after deployment. The Self-Rating Inventory for PTSD was used to measure the presence of PTSD symptoms, while exposure to combat trauma during deployment was measured with a 19-item deployment experiences checklist. These groups did not differ for age, gender, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, military rank, length, weight, or medication use. In DNA from whole blood telomere length was measured and DNA methylation levels were assessed using the Illumina 450K DNA methylation arrays. Epigenetic ageing was estimated using the DNAm age estimator procedure. The association of trauma with telomere length was in the expected direction but not significant (B=-10.2, p=0.52). However, contrary to our expectations, development of PTSD symptoms was associated with the reverse process, telomere lengthening (B=1.91, p=0.018). In concordance, trauma significantly accelerated epigenetic ageing (B=1.97, p=0.032) and similar to the findings in telomeres, development of PTSD symptoms was inversely associated with epigenetic ageing (B=-0.10, p=0.044). Blood cell count, medication and premorbid early life trauma exposure did not confound the results. Overall, in this longitudinal study of military personnel deployed to Afghanistan we show an acceleration of ageing by trauma. However, development of PTSD symptoms was associated with telomere lengthening and reversed epigenetic ageing. These findings warrant further study of a perhaps dysfunctional compensatory cellular ageing reversal in PTSD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

40Ar/39Ar Dating of the Brunhes-Matuyama Geomagnetic Field Reversal.

PubMed

Baksi, A K; Hsu, V; McWilliams, M O; Farrar, E

1992-04-17

Magnetostratigraphic studies are widely used in conjunction with the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) to date events in the range 0 to 5 million years ago. A critical tie point on the GPTS is the potassium-argon age of the most recent (Brunhes-Matuyama) geomagnetic field reversal. Astronomical values for the forcing frequencies observed in the oxygen isotope record in Ocean Drilling Project site 677 suggest that the age of this last reversal is 780 ka (thousand years ago), whereas the potassium-argon-based estimate is 730 ka. Results from 4039; Ar incremental heating studies on a series of lavas from Maui that straddle the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal give an age of 783 + 11 ka, in agreement with the astronomically derived value. The astronomically based technique appears to be a viable tool for dating young sedimentary sequences.

Isotopic age of the Black Forest Bed, Petrified Forest Member, Chinle Formation, Arizona: An example of dating a continental sandstone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riggs, N.R.; Ash, S.R.; Barth, A.P.; Gehrels, G.E.; Wooden, J.L.

2003-01-01

Zircons from the Black Forest Bed, Petrified Forest Member, Chinle Formation, in Petrified Forest National Park, yield ages that range from Late Triassic to Late Archean. Grains were analyzed by multigrain TIMS (thermal-ionization mass spectrometry), single-crystal TIMS, and SHRIMP (sensitive, high-resolution ion-microprobe). Multiple-grain analysis yielded a discordia trajectory with a lower intercept of 207 ?? 2 Ma, which because of the nature of multiple-grain sampling of a detrital bed, is not considered conclusive. Analysis of 29 detrital-zircon grains by TIMS yielded U-PB ages of 2706 ?? 6 Ma to 206 ?? 6 Ma. Eleven of these ages lie between 211 and 216 ?? 6.8 Ma. Our statistical analysis of these grains indicates that the mean of the ages, 213 ?? 1.7 Ma, reflects more analytical error than geologic variability in sources of the grains. Grains with ages of ca. 1400 Ma were derived from the widespread plutons of that age exposed throughout the southwestern Cordillera and central United States. Twelve grains analyzed by SHRIMP provide 206Pb*/238U ages from 214 ?? 2 Ma to 200 ?? 4 Ma. We use these data to infer that cores of inherited material were present in many zircons and that single-crystal analysis provides an accurate estimation of the age of the bed. We further propose that, even if some degree of reworking has occurred, the very strong concentration of ages at ca. 213 Ma provides a maximum age for the Black Forest Bed of 213 ?? 1.7 Ma. The actual age of the bed may be closer to 209 Ma. Dating continental successions is very difficult when distinct ash beds are not clearly identified, as is the case in the Chinle Formation. Detrital zircons in the Black Forest Bed, however, are dominated by an acicular morphology with preserved delicate terminations. The shape of these crystals and their inferred environment of deposition in slow-water settings suggest that the crystals were not far removed from their site of deposition in space and likely not far in time. Plinian ash clouds derived from explosive eruptions along the early Mesozoic Cordilleran margin provided the crystals to the Chinle basin, where local conditions insured their preservation. In the case of the Black Forest Bed, the products of one major eruption may dominate the volcanic contribution to the unit. Volcanic detritus in the Chinle Formation was derived from multiple, distinct sources. Coarse pebble- to cobble-size material may have originated in eastern California and/or western Arizona, where Triassic plutons are exposed. Fine-grained detritus, in contrast, was carried in ash clouds that derived from caldera eruptions in east-central California or western Nevada.

The Sedentary Time and Activity Reporting Questionnaire (STAR-Q): Reliability and Validity Against Doubly Labeled Water and 7-Day Activity Diaries

PubMed Central

Csizmadi, Ilona; Neilson, Heather K.; Kopciuk, Karen A.; Khandwala, Farah; Liu, Andrew; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Yasui, Yutaka; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Bryant, Heather E.; Lau, David C. W.; Robson, Paula J.

2014-01-01

We determined measurement properties of the Sedentary Time and Activity Reporting Questionnaire (STAR-Q), which was designed to estimate past-month activity energy expenditure (AEE). STAR-Q validity and reliability were assessed in 102 adults in Alberta, Canada (2009–2011), who completed 14-day doubly labeled water (DLW) protocols, 7-day activity diaries on day 15, and the STAR-Q on day 14 and again at 3 and 6 months. Three-month reliability was substantial for total energy expenditure (TEE) and AEE (intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.84 and 0.73, respectively), while 6-month reliability was moderate. STAR-Q-derived TEE and AEE were moderately correlated with DLW estimates (Spearman's ρs of 0.53 and 0.40, respectively; P < 0.001), and on average, the STAR-Q overestimated TEE and AEE (median differences were 367 kcal/day and 293 kcal/day, respectively). Body mass index-, age-, sex-, and season-adjusted concordance correlation coefficients (CCCs) were 0.24 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.07, 0.36) and 0.21 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.32) for STAR-Q-derived versus DLW-derived TEE and AEE, respectively. Agreement between the diaries and STAR-Q (metabolic equivalent-hours/day) was strongest for occupational sedentary time (adjusted CCC = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.85) and overall strenuous activity (adjusted CCC = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.76). The STAR-Q demonstrated substantial validity for estimating occupational sedentary time and strenuous activity and fair validity for ranking individuals by AEE. PMID:25038920

Using age on clothes size label to estimate weight in emergency paediatric patients.

PubMed

Elgie, Laura D; Williams, Andrew R

2012-10-01

To study formulae that estimate children's weight using their actual age. To determine whether using the age on their clothes size label in these formulae can estimate weight when their actual age is unknown. The actual age and age on the clothes labels of 188 children were inserted into formulae that estimate children's weight. These estimates were compared with their actual weight. Bland-Altman plots calculated the precision and accuracy of each of these estimates. In all formulae, using age on the clothes sizes label provided a more precise estimate than the child's actual age. In emergencies where a child's age is unknown, use of the age on their clothes label in weight-estimating formulae yields acceptable weight estimates. Even in situations where a child's age is known, the age on their clothes label may provide a more accurate and precise weight estimate than the actual age.

Reference Equations for Static Lung Volumes and TLCO from a Population Sample in Northern Greece.

PubMed

Michailopoulos, Pavlos; Kontakiotis, Theodoros; Spyratos, Dionisios; Argyropoulou-Pataka, Paraskevi; Sichletidis, Lazaros

2015-02-14

Background: The most commonly used reference equations for the measurement of static lung volumes/capacities and transfer factor of the lung for CO (TL CO ) are based on studies around 30-40 years old with significant limitations. Objectives: Our aim was to (1) develop reference equations for static lung volumes and TL CO using the current American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society guidelines, and (2) compare the equations derived with those most commonly used. Methods: Healthy Caucasian subjects (234 males and 233 females) aged 18-91 years were recruited. All of them were healthy never smokers with a normal chest X-ray. Static lung volumes and TL CO were measured with a single-breath technique according to the latest guidelines. Results: Curvilinear regression prediction equations derived from the present study were compared with those that are most commonly used. Our reference equations in accordance with the latest studies show lower values for all static lung volume parameters and TL CO as well as a different way of deviation of those parameters (i.e. declining with age total lung capacity, TL CO age decline in both sex and functional residual capacity age rise in males). Conclusions: We suggest that old reference values of static lung volumes and TL CO should be updated, and our perception of deviation of some spirometric parameters should be revised. Our new reference curvilinear equations derived according to the latest guidelines could contribute to the updating by respiratory societies of old existing reference values and result in a better estimation of the lung function of contemporary populations with similar Caucasian characteristics. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Trajectories of eGFR decline over a four year period in an Indigenous Australian population at high risk of CKD-the eGFR follow up study.

PubMed

Barzi, Federica; Jones, Graham R D; Hughes, Jaquelyne T; Lawton, Paul D; Hoy, Wendy; O'Dea, Kerin; Jerums, George; MacIsaac, Richard J; Cass, Alan; Maple-Brown, Louise J

2018-03-01

Being able to estimate kidney decline accurately is particularly important in Indigenous Australians, a population at increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease and end stage kidney disease. The aim of this analysis was to explore the trend of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over a four year period using multiple local creatinine measures, compared with estimates derived using centrally-measured enzymatic creatinine and with estimates derived using only two local measures. The eGFR study comprised a cohort of over 600 Aboriginal Australian participants recruited from over twenty sites in urban, regional and remote Australia across five strata of health, diabetes and kidney function. Trajectories of eGFR were explored on 385 participants with at least three local creatinine records using graphical methods that compared the linear trends fitted using linear mixed models with non-linear trends fitted using fractional polynomial equations. Temporal changes of local creatinine were also characterized using group-based modelling. Analyses were stratified by eGFR (<60; 60-89; 90-119 and ≥120ml/min/1.73m 2 ) and albuminuria categories (<3mg/mmol; 3-30mg/mmol; >30mg/mmol). Mean age of the participants was 48years, 64% were female and the median follow-up was 3years. Decline of eGFR was accurately estimated using simple linear regression models and locally measured creatinine was as good as centrally measured creatinine at predicting kidney decline in people with an eGFR<60 and an eGFR 60-90ml/min/1.73m 2 with albuminuria. Analyses showed that one baseline and one follow-up locally measured creatinine may be sufficient to estimate short term (up to four years) kidney function decline. The greatest yearly decline was estimated in those with eGFR 60-90 and macro-albuminuria: -6.21 (-8.20, -4.23) ml/min/1.73m 2 . Short term estimates of kidney function decline can be reliably derived using an easy to implement and simple to interpret linear mixed effect model. Locally measured creatinine did not differ to centrally measured creatinine, thus is an accurate cost-efficient and timely means to monitoring kidney function progression. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties.

PubMed

Puncher, M; Zhang, W; Harrison, J D; Wakeford, R

2017-06-26

Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internal exposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of the appropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dose coefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposure pathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important for informing judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is an estimate of the 95% probable geometric difference between the best risk estimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment. This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis to quantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine by members of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from the population of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidence risk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of 129 I and 131 I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer risk model parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalent ICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion or inhalation of 131 I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and 9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values. Broadly similar results were obtained for 129 I. The uncertainties on risk estimates are largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters rather than uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of the sensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculations show variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around 2-3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer risk and dose observed at low to moderate acute doses and incorporated in the risk models also applies to very small doses received at very low dose rates; the uncertainty in this assumption is considerable, but largely unquantifiable. The UF values illustrate the need for an informed approach to the use of ICRP dose and risk coefficients.

Developing a method to derive alcohol-attributable fractions for HIV/AIDS mortality based on alcohol's impact on adherence to antiretroviral medication

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Alcohol consumption is causally linked to nonadherence to antiretroviral treatment that in turn causes an increase in HIV/AIDS mortality. This article presents a method to calculate the percentage of HIV/AIDS deaths attributable to alcohol consumption and the associated uncertainty. Methods By combining information on risk relations from a number of published sources, we estimated alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) of HIV/AIDS in a stepwise procedure. First, we estimated the effect of alcohol consumption on adherence to antiretroviral treatment, and then we combined this estimate with the impact of nonadherence on death. The 95% uncertainty intervals were computed by estimating the variance of the AAFs using Taylor series expansions of one and multiple variables. AAFs were determined for each of the five Global Burden of Disease regions of Africa, based on country-specific treatment and alcohol consumption data from 2005. Results The effects of alcohol on HIV/AIDS in the African Global Burden of Disease regions range from 0.03% to 0.34% for men and from 0% to 0.17% for women, depending on region and age category. The detrimental effect of alcohol consumption was statistically significant in every region and age category except for the North Africa/Middle East region. Conclusions Although the method has its limitations, it was shown to be feasible and provided estimates of the impact of alcohol use on the mortality outcome of HIV/AIDS. PMID:21320310

Estimation of dynamic stability parameters from drop model flight tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambers, J. R.; Iliff, K. W.

1981-01-01

A recent NASA application of a remotely-piloted drop model to studies of the high angle-of-attack and spinning characteristics of a fighter configuration has provided an opportunity to evaluate and develop parameter estimation methods for the complex aerodynamic environment associated with high angles of attack. The paper discusses the overall drop model operation including descriptions of the model, instrumentation, launch and recovery operations, piloting concept, and parameter identification methods used. Static and dynamic stability derivatives were obtained for an angle-of-attack range from -20 deg to 53 deg. The results of the study indicated that the variations of the estimates with angle of attack were consistent for most of the static derivatives, and the effects of configuration modifications to the model (such as nose strakes) were apparent in the static derivative estimates. The dynamic derivatives exhibited greater uncertainty levels than the static derivatives, possibly due to nonlinear aerodynamics, model response characteristics, or additional derivatives.

Prevalence, Trend and Determining Factors of Gestational Diabetes in Germany.

PubMed

Huy, C; Loerbroks, A; Hornemann, A; Röhrig, S; Schneider, S

2012-04-01

Purpose: The true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany is unknown. Thus, the study's purposes were to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes as well as to describe the temporal prevalence trend and to identify determinants. Material and Methods: We calculated prevalence estimates based on two datasets: the register-based German perinatal statistic (n = 650 232) and the maternal self-reports from the German children and youth health survey (KiGGS; n = 15 429). Differences between prevalence estimates were analysed using χ 2 and trend tests, and determinants were identified using logistic regression. Results: According to the perinatal statistic, gestational diabetes was present in 3.7 % of pregnant women in Germany in 2010. The prevalence across the years 2001 to 2006 was estimated at 1.9 % which differed significantly from the prevalence estimate derived from the KiGGS dataset for the same period of time (5.3 %; 95 % confidence interval: 4.6-6.1 %). Both datasets show an increasing trend of gestational diabetes (p < 0.001). The risk for gestational diabetes was mainly associated with age, BMI and social class of pregnant women as well as with multiple pregnancies. Conclusion: The lack of significant screening studies among representative samples hampers a sound estimation of the true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany. The increasing trend in gestational diabetes might continue due to the projected increase of important risk factors (e.g., maternal age, obesity). Our analyses support the current consensus recommendations regarding standardised gestational diabetes screening.

Taking the First Full Drink: Epidemiological Evidence on Male-Female Differences in the United States.

PubMed

Cheng, Hui G; Cantave, Marven D; Anthony, James C

2016-04-01

This research extends prior epidemiological estimates for the United States and re-examines a previously described male excess in alcohol drinking. Its aim was to estimate fine-grained age-specific incidence of becoming a drinker among 12- to 24-year-old U.S. males and females, and to compare incidence estimates with prevalence proportions. The study population is 12- to 24-year-old noninstitutionalized U.S. civilian residents. Estimates are from 12 successive U.S. National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), with nationally representative samples drawn each year from 2002 to 2013 and assessed via computer-assisted self-interviews (n ~ 390,000). Analysis-weighted incidence and prevalence estimates are generated using the NSDUH Restricted Data Analysis System for 6 year-pairs. Meta-analysis-derived summary estimates are provided, treating each year-pair as a replication. In this 21st century evidence, there no longer is male excess of incidence with respect to underage drinking. Indeed, in mid-adolescence, there is a clear female excess for the risk of becoming an underage drinker. Meta-analytic summaries disclosed no other male-female differences in incidence. Nevertheless, a male excess in the prevalence of recently active drinking can be seen after the age of 19 years. This new evidence from the United States shows that the so-called "gender gap" in risk of becoming a drinker has narrowed to the point of there being no gap at all. Indeed, in mid-adolescence, risk of starting to drink is greater for females than for males. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Estimation of snow in extratropical cyclones from multiple frequency airborne radar observations. An Expectation-Maximization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecu, M.; Tian, L.; Heymsfield, G. M.

2017-12-01

A major challenge in deriving accurate estimates of physical properties of falling snow particles from single frequency space- or airborne radar observations is that snow particles exhibit a large variety of shapes and their electromagnetic scattering characteristics are highly dependent on these shapes. Triple frequency (Ku-Ka-W) radar observations are expected to facilitate the derivation of more accurate snow estimates because specific snow particle shapes tend to have specific signatures in the associated two-dimensional dual-reflectivity-ratio (DFR) space. However, the derivation of accurate snow estimates from triple frequency radar observations is by no means a trivial task. This is because the radar observations can be subject to non-negligible attenuation (especially at W-band when super-cooled water is present), which may significantly impact the interpretation of the information in the DFR space. Moreover, the electromagnetic scattering properties of snow particles are computationally expensive to derive, which makes the derivation of reliable parameterizations usable in estimation methodologies challenging. In this study, we formulate an two-step Expectation Maximization (EM) methodology to derive accurate snow estimates in Extratropical Cyclones (ECTs) from triple frequency airborne radar observations. The Expectation (E) step consists of a least-squares triple frequency estimation procedure applied with given assumptions regarding the relationships between the density of snow particles and their sizes, while the Maximization (M) step consists of the optimization of the assumptions used in step E. The electromagnetic scattering properties of snow particles are derived using the Rayleigh-Gans approximation. The methodology is applied to triple frequency radar observations collected during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). Results show that snowfall estimates above the freezing level in ETCs consistent with the triple frequency radar observations as well as with independent rainfall estimates below the freezing level may be derived using the EM methodology formulated in the study.

Association between late-life social activity and motor decline in older adults.

PubMed

Buchman, Aron S; Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Fleischman, Debra A; Leurgans, Sue; Bennett, David A

2009-06-22

Loss of motor function is a common consequence of aging, but little is known about the factors that predict idiopathic motor decline. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that late-life social activity is related to the rate of change in motor function in old age. Longitudinal cohort study with a mean follow-up of 4.9 years with 906 persons without stroke, Parkinson disease, or dementia participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project. At baseline, participants rated the frequency of their current participation in common social activities from which a summary measure of social activity was derived. The main outcome measure was annual change in a composite measure of global motor function, based on 9 measures of muscle strength and 9 motor performances. Mean (SD) social activity score at baseline was 2.6 (0.58), with higher scores indicating more frequent participation in social activities. In a generalized estimating equation model, controlling for age, sex, and education, global motor function declined by approximately 0.05 U/y (estimate, 0.016; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.057 to 0.041 [P = .02]). Each 1-point decrease in social activity was associated with approximately a 33% more rapid rate of decline in motor function (estimate, 0.016; 95% CI, 0.003 to 0.029 [P = .02]). The effect of each 1-point decrease in the social activity score at baseline on the rate of change in global motor function was the same as being approximately 5 years older at baseline (age estimate, -0.003; 95% CI, -0.004 to -0.002 [P<.001]). Furthermore, this amount of motor decline per year was associated with a more than 40% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.30 to 1.60) and a 65% increased risk of incident Katz disability (hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.48 to 1.83). The association of social activity with the rate of global motor decline did not vary along demographic lines and was unchanged (estimate, 0.025; 95% CI, 0.005 to 0.045 [P = .01]) after controlling for potential confounders including late-life physical and cognitive activity, disability, global cognition depressive symptoms, body composition, and chronic medical conditions. Less frequent participation in social activities is associated with a more rapid rate of motor function decline in old age.

Modelling the time at which overcrowding and feed interruption emerge on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever outbreak.

PubMed

Weng, H Y; Yadav, S; Olynk Widmar, N J; Croney, C; Ash, M; Cooper, M

2017-03-01

A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the time elapsed before overcrowding (TOC) or feed interruption (TFI) emerged on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Indiana, USA. Nursery (19 to 65 days of age) and grow-to-finish (40 to 165 days of age) pork production operations were modelled separately. Overcrowding was defined as the total weight of pigs on premises exceeding 100% to 115% of the maximum capacity of the premises, which was computed as the total weight of the pigs at harvest/transition age. Algorithms were developed to estimate age-specific weight of the pigs on premises and to compare the daily total weight of the pigs with the threshold weight defining overcrowding to flag the time when the total weight exceeded the threshold (i.e. when overcrowding occurred). To estimate TFI, an algorithm was constructed to model a swine producer's decision to discontinue feed supply by incorporating the assumptions that a longer estimated epidemic duration, a longer time interval between the age of pigs at the onset of the outbreak and the harvest/transition age, or a longer progression of an ongoing outbreak would increase the probability of a producer's decision to discontinue the feed supply. Adverse animal welfare conditions were modelled to emerge shortly after an interruption of feed supply. Simulations were run with 100 000 iterations each for a 365-day period. Overcrowding occurred in all simulated iterations, and feed interruption occurred in 30% of the iterations. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) TOC was 24 days (10, 43) in nursery operations and 78 days (26, 134) in grow-to-finish operations. Most feed interruptions, if they emerged, occurred within 15 days of an outbreak. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) time at which either overcrowding or feed interruption emerged was 19 days (4, 42) in nursery and 57 days (4, 130) in grow-to-finish operations. The study findings suggest that overcrowding and feed interruption could emerge early during a CSF outbreak among swine premises under movement restrictions. The outputs derived from the risk model could be used to estimate and evaluate associated mitigation strategies for alleviating adverse animal welfare conditions resulting from movement restrictions.

Refining fault slip rates using multiple displaced terrace risers-An example from the Honey Lake fault, NE California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Ryan D.; Briggs, Richard W.; Crone, Anthony J.; DuRoss, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

Faulted terrace risers are semi-planar features commonly used to constrain Quaternary slip rates along strike-slip faults. These landforms are difficult to date directly and therefore their ages are commonly bracketed by age estimates of the adjacent upper and lower terrace surfaces. However, substantial differences in the ages of the upper and lower terrace surfaces (a factor of 2.4 difference observed globally) produce large uncertainties in the slip-rate estimate. In this investigation, we explore how the full range of displacements and bounding ages from multiple faulted terrace risers can be combined to yield a more accurate fault slip rate. We use 0.25-m cell size digital terrain models derived from airborne lidar data to analyze three sites where terrace risers are offset right-laterally by the Honey Lake fault in NE California, USA. We use ages for locally extensive subhorizontal surfaces to bracket the time of riser formation: an upper surface is the bed of abandoned Lake Lahontan having an age of 15.8 ± 0.6 ka and a lower surface is a fluvial terrace abandoned at 4.7 ± 0.1 ka. We estimate lateral offsets of the risers ranging between 6.6 and 28.3 m (median values), a greater than fourfold difference in values. The amount of offset corresponds to the riser's position relative to modern stream meanders: the smallest offset is in a meander cutbank position, whereas the larger offsets are in straight channel or meander point-bar positions. Taken in isolation, the individual terrace-riser offsets yield slip rates ranging from 0.3 to 7.1 mm/a. However, when the offset values are collectively assessed in a probabilistic framework, we find that a uniform (linear) slip rate of 1.6 mm/a (1.4-1.9 mm/a at 95% confidence) can satisfy the data, within their respective uncertainties. This investigation demonstrates that integrating observations of multiple offset elements (crest, midpoint, and base) from numerous faulted and dated terrace risers at closely spaced sites can refine slip-rate estimates on strike-slip faults.

Refining fault slip rates using multiple displaced terrace risers—An example from the Honey Lake fault, NE California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gold, Ryan D.; Briggs, Richard; Crone, Anthony J.; Duross, Christopher

2017-01-01

Faulted terrace risers are semi-planar features commonly used to constrain Quaternary slip rates along strike-slip faults. These landforms are difficult to date directly and therefore their ages are commonly bracketed by age estimates of the adjacent upper and lower terrace surfaces. However, substantial differences in the ages of the upper and lower terrace surfaces (a factor of 2.4 difference observed globally) produce large uncertainties in the slip-rate estimate. In this investigation, we explore how the full range of displacements and bounding ages from multiple faulted terrace risers can be combined to yield a more accurate fault slip rate. We use 0.25-m cell size digital terrain models derived from airborne lidar data to analyze three sites where terrace risers are offset right-laterally by the Honey Lake fault in NE California, USA. We use ages for locally extensive subhorizontal surfaces to bracket the time of riser formation: an upper surface is the bed of abandoned Lake Lahontan having an age of 15.8 ± 0.6 ka and a lower surface is a fluvial terrace abandoned at 4.7 ± 0.1 ka. We estimate lateral offsets of the risers ranging between 6.6 and 28.3 m (median values), a greater than fourfold difference in values. The amount of offset corresponds to the riser's position relative to modern stream meanders: the smallest offset is in a meander cutbank position, whereas the larger offsets are in straight channel or meander point-bar positions. Taken in isolation, the individual terrace-riser offsets yield slip rates ranging from 0.3 to 7.1 mm/a. However, when the offset values are collectively assessed in a probabilistic framework, we find that a uniform (linear) slip rate of 1.6 mm/a (1.4–1.9 mm/a at 95% confidence) can satisfy the data, within their respective uncertainties. This investigation demonstrates that integrating observations of multiple offset elements (crest, midpoint, and base) from numerous faulted and dated terrace risers at closely spaced sites can refine slip-rate estimates on strike-slip faults.

Age-related effects on leaf area/sapwood area relationships, canopy transpiration and carbon gain of Norway spruce stands (Picea abies) in the Fichtelgebirge, Germany.

PubMed

Köstner, B; Falge, E; Tenhunen, J D

2002-06-01

Stand age is an important structural determinant of canopy transpiration (E(c)) and carbon gain. Another more functional parameter of forest structure is the leaf area/sapwood area relationship, A(L)/A(S), which changes with site conditions and has been used to estimate leaf area index of forest canopies. The interpretation of age-related changes in A(L)/A(S) and the question of how A(L)/A(S) is related to forest functions are of current interest because they may help to explain forest canopy fluxes and growth. We conducted studies in mature stands of Picea abies (L.) Karst. varying in age from 40 to 140 years, in tree density from 1680 to 320 trees ha(-1), and in tree height from 15 to 30 m. Structural parameters were measured by biomass harvests of individual trees and stand biometry. We estimated E(c) from scaled-up xylem sap flux of trees, and canopy-level fluxes were predicted by a three-dimensional microclimate and gas exchange model (STANDFLUX). In contrast to pine species, A(L)/A(S) of P. abies increased with stand age from 0.26 to 0.48 m(2) cm(-2). Agreement between E(c) derived from scaled-up sap flux and modeled canopy transpiration was obtained with the same parameterization of needle physiology independent of stand age. Reduced light interception per leaf area and, as a consequence, reductions in net canopy photosynthesis (A(c)), canopy conductance (g(c)) and E(c) were predicted by the model in the older stands. Seasonal water-use efficiency (WUE = A(c)/E(c)), derived from scaled-up sap flux and stem growth as well as from model simulation, declined with increasing A(L)/A(S) and stand age. Based on the different behavior of age-related A(L)/A(S) in Norway spruce stands compared with other tree species, we conclude that WUE rather than A(L)/A(S) could represent a common age-related property of all species. We also conclude that, in addition to hydraulic limitations reducing carbon gain in old stands, a functional change in A(L)/A(S) that is related to reduced light interception per leaf area provides another potential explanation for reduced carbon gain in old stands of P. abies, even when hydraulic constraints increase in response to changes in canopy architecture and aging.

Iodine Intakes of Victorian Schoolchildren Measured Using 24-h Urinary Iodine Excretion

PubMed Central

Beckford, Kelsey; Margerison, Claire; Skeaff, Sheila A.

2017-01-01

Mandatory fortification of bread with iodized salt was introduced in Australia in 2009, and studies using spot urine collections conducted post fortification indicate that Australian schoolchildren are now replete. However an accurate estimate of daily iodine intake utilizing 24-h urinary iodine excretion (UIE μg/day) has not been reported and compared to the estimated average requirement (EAR). This study aimed to assess daily total iodine intake and status of a sample of primary schoolchildren using 24-h urine samples. Victorian primary school children provided 24-h urine samples between 2011 and 2013, from which urinary iodine concentration (UIC, μg/L) and total iodine excretion (UIE, μg/day) as an estimate of intake was determined. Valid 24-h urine samples were provided by 650 children, mean (SD) age 9.3 (1.8) years (n = 359 boys). The mean UIE of 4–8 and 9–13 year olds was 94 (48) and 111 (57) μg/24-h, respectively, with 29% and 26% having a UIE below the age-specific EAR. The median (IQR) UIC was 124 (83,172) μg/L, with 36% of participants having a UIC < 100 μg/L. This convenience sample of Victorian schoolchildren were found to be iodine replete, based on UIC and estimated iodine intakes derived from 24-h urine collections, confirming the findings of the Australian Health Survey. PMID:28867787

Dating the Vostok ice core record by importing the Devils Hole chronology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landwehr, J.M.; Winograd, I.J.

2001-01-01

The development of an accurate chronology for the Vostok record continues to be an open research question because these invaluable ice cores cannot be dated directly. Depth-to-age relationships have been developed using many different approaches, but published age estimates are inconsistent, even for major paleoclimatic events. We have developed a chronology for the Vostok deuterium paleotemperature record using a simple and objective algorithm to transfer ages of major paleoclimatic events from the radiometrically dated 500,000-year ??18O-paleotemperature record from Devils Hole, Nevada. The method is based only on a strong inference that major shifts in paleotemperature recorded at both locations occurred synchronously, consistent with an atmospheric teleconnection. The derived depth-to-age relationship conforms with the physics of ice compaction, and internally produces ages for climatic events 5.4 and 11.24 which are consistent with the externally assigned ages that the Vostok team needed to assume in order to derive their most recent chronology, GT4. Indeed, the resulting V-DH chronology is highly correlated with GT4 because of the unexpected correspondence even in the timing of second-order climatic events that were not constrained by the algorithm. Furthermore, the algorithm developed herein is not specific to this problem; rather, the procedure can be used whenever two paleoclimate records are proxies for the same physical phenomenon, and paleoclimatic conditions forcing the two records can be considered to have occurred contemporaneously. The ability of the algorithm to date the East Antarctic Dome Fuji core is also demonstrated.

Is the shape of the decline in risk following quitting smoking similar for squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the lung? A quantitative review using the negative exponential model.

PubMed

Fry, John S; Lee, Peter N; Forey, Barbara A; Coombs, Katharine J

2015-06-01

One possible contributor to the reported rise in the ratio of adenocarcinoma to squamous cell carcinoma of the lung may be differences in the pattern of decline in risk following quitting for the two lung cancer types. Earlier, using data from 85 studies comparing overall lung cancer risks in current smokers, quitters (by time quit) and never smokers, we fitted the negative exponential model, deriving an estimate of 9.93years for the half-life - the time when the excess risk for quitters compared to never smokers becomes half that for continuing smokers. Here we applied the same techniques to data from 16 studies providing RRs specific for lung cancer type. From the 13 studies where the half-life was estimable for each type, we derived estimates of 11.68 (95% CI 10.22-13.34) for squamous cell carcinoma and 14.45 (11.92-17.52) for adenocarcinoma. The ratio of the half-lives was estimated as 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.46, p<0.001). The slower decline in quitters for adenocarcinoma, evident in subgroups by sex, age and other factors, may be one of the factors contributing to the reported rise in the ratio of adenocarcinoma to squamous cell carcinoma. Others include changes in the diagnosis and classification of lung cancer. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Algebraic Derivative Estimations Using a Novel Low-Cost Architecture Based on Reconfigurable Logic

PubMed Central

Morales, Rafael; Rincón, Fernando; Gazzano, Julio Dondo; López, Juan Carlos

2014-01-01

Time derivative estimation of signals plays a very important role in several fields, such as signal processing and control engineering, just to name a few of them. For that purpose, a non-asymptotic algebraic procedure for the approximate estimation of the system states is used in this work. The method is based on results from differential algebra and furnishes some general formulae for the time derivatives of a measurable signal in which two algebraic derivative estimators run simultaneously, but in an overlapping fashion. The algebraic derivative algorithm presented in this paper is computed online and in real-time, offering high robustness properties with regard to corrupting noises, versatility and ease of implementation. Besides, in this work, we introduce a novel architecture to accelerate this algebraic derivative estimator using reconfigurable logic. The core of the algorithm is implemented in an FPGA, improving the speed of the system and achieving real-time performance. Finally, this work proposes a low-cost platform for the integration of hardware in the loop in MATLAB. PMID:24859033

The effect of participant nonresponse on HIV prevalence estimates in a population-based survey in two informal settlements in Nairobi city

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Participant nonresponse in an HIV serosurvey can affect estimates of HIV prevalence. Nonresponse can arise from a participant's refusal to provide a blood sample or the failure to trace a sampled individual. In a serosurvey conducted by the African Population and Health Research Center and Kenya Medical Research Centre in the slums of Nairobi, 43% of sampled individuals did not provide a blood sample. This paper describes selective participation in the serosurvey and estimates bias in HIV prevalence figures. Methods The paper uses data derived from an HIV serosurvey nested in an on-going demographic surveillance system. Nonresponse was assessed using logistic regression and multiple imputation methods to impute missing data for HIV status using a set of common variables available for all sampled participants. Results Age, residence, high mobility, wealth, and ethnicity were independent predictors of a sampled individual not being contacted. Individuals aged 30-34 years, females, individuals from the Kikuyu and Kamba ethnicity, married participants, and residents of Viwandani were all less likely to accept HIV testing when contacted. Although men were less likely to be contacted, those found were more willing to be tested compared to females. The overall observed HIV prevalence was overestimated by 2%. The observed prevalence for male participants was underestimated by about 1% and that for females was overestimated by 3%. These differences were small and did not affect the overall estimate substantially as the observed estimates fell within the confidence limits of the corrected prevalence estimate. Conclusions Nonresponse in the HIV serosurvey in the two informal settlements was high, however, the effect on overall prevalence estimate was minimal. PMID:20649957

Anti-aging effects of vitamin C on human pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes.

PubMed

Kim, Yoon Young; Ku, Seung-Yup; Huh, Yul; Liu, Hung-Ching; Kim, Seok Hyun; Choi, Young Min; Moon, Shin Yong

2013-10-01

Human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) have arisen as a source of cells for biomedical research due to their developmental potential. Stem cells possess the promise of providing clinicians with novel treatments for disease as well as allowing researchers to generate human-specific cellular metabolism models. Aging is a natural process of living organisms, yet aging in human heart cells is difficult to study due to the ethical considerations regarding human experimentation as well as a current lack of alternative experimental models. hPSC-derived cardiomyocytes (CMs) bear a resemblance to human cardiac cells and thus hPSC-derived CMs are considered to be a viable alternative model to study human heart cell aging. In this study, we used hPSC-derived CMs as an in vitro aging model. We generated cardiomyocytes from hPSCs and demonstrated the process of aging in both human embryonic stem cell (hESC)- and induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC)-derived CMs. Aging in hESC-derived CMs correlated with reduced membrane potential in mitochondria, the accumulation of lipofuscin, a slower beating pattern, and the downregulation of human telomerase RNA (hTR) and cell cycle regulating genes. Interestingly, the expression of hTR in hiPSC-derived CMs was not significantly downregulated, unlike in hESC-derived CMs. In order to delay aging, vitamin C was added to the cultured CMs. When cells were treated with 100 μM of vitamin C for 48 h, anti-aging effects, specifically on the expression of telomere-related genes and their functionality in aging cells, were observed. Taken together, these results suggest that hPSC-derived CMs can be used as a unique human cardiomyocyte aging model in vitro and that vitamin C shows anti-aging effects in this model.

Improved quantitative analysis of spectra using a new method of obtaining derivative spectra based on a singular perturbation technique.

PubMed

Li, Zhigang; Wang, Qiaoyun; Lv, Jiangtao; Ma, Zhenhe; Yang, Linjuan

2015-06-01

Spectroscopy is often applied when a rapid quantitative analysis is required, but one challenge is the translation of raw spectra into a final analysis. Derivative spectra are often used as a preliminary preprocessing step to resolve overlapping signals, enhance signal properties, and suppress unwanted spectral features that arise due to non-ideal instrument and sample properties. In this study, to improve quantitative analysis of near-infrared spectra, derivatives of noisy raw spectral data need to be estimated with high accuracy. A new spectral estimator based on singular perturbation technique, called the singular perturbation spectra estimator (SPSE), is presented, and the stability analysis of the estimator is given. Theoretical analysis and simulation experimental results confirm that the derivatives can be estimated with high accuracy using this estimator. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the estimator for processing noisy infrared spectra is evaluated using the analysis of beer spectra. The derivative spectra of the beer and the marzipan are used to build the calibration model using partial least squares (PLS) modeling. The results show that the PLS based on the new estimator can achieve better performance compared with the Savitzky-Golay algorithm and can serve as an alternative choice for quantitative analytical applications.

New formulas for calculating the lung-to-head ratio in healthy fetuses between 20 and 40 weeks' gestation.

PubMed

Kehl, Sven; Eckert, Sven; Berlit, Sebastian; Tuschy, Benjamin; Sütterlin, Marc; Siemer, Jörn

2013-11-01

The purpose of this study was to develop new formulas for the expected fetal lung area-to-head circumference ratio in normal singleton pregnancies between 20 and 40 weeks' gestation. The lung-to-head ratio and complete fetal biometric parameters of 126 fetuses between 20 and 40 weeks' gestation were prospectively measured. The lung-to-head ratio was measured by 3 different methods (longest diameter, anteroposterior diameter, and tracing). Formulas for predicting right and left lung-to-head ratios with regard to gestational age and biometric parameters were derived by stepwise regression analysis. New formulas for calculating right and left lung-to-head ratios by each measurement method were derived. The formulas included gestational age only and no biometric parameters. The new formulas for estimating the expected lung-to-head ratio by the 3 different methods in normal singleton pregnancies up to 40 weeks' gestation may help improve the prognostic power of observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio assessment in fetuses with congenital diaphragmatic hernias.

Limits on estimating the width of thin tubular structures in 3D images.

PubMed

Wörz, Stefan; Rohr, Karl

2006-01-01

This work studies limits on estimating the width of thin tubular structures in 3D images. Based on nonlinear estimation theory we analyze the minimal stochastic error of estimating the width. Given a 3D analytic model of the image intensities of tubular structures, we derive a closed-form expression for the Cramér-Rao bound of the width estimate under image noise. We use the derived lower bound as a benchmark and compare it with three previously proposed accuracy limits for vessel width estimation. Moreover, by experimental investigations we demonstrate that the derived lower bound can be achieved by fitting a 3D parametric intensity model directly to the image data.

Effect of sampling rate and record length on the determination of stability and control derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, M. J.; Iliff, K. W.; Whitman, R. K.

1978-01-01

Flight data from five aircraft were used to assess the effects of sampling rate and record length reductions on estimates of stability and control derivatives produced by a maximum likelihood estimation method. Derivatives could be extracted from flight data with the maximum likelihood estimation method even if there were considerable reductions in sampling rate and/or record length. Small amplitude pulse maneuvers showed greater degradation of the derivative maneuvers than large amplitude pulse maneuvers when these reductions were made. Reducing the sampling rate was found to be more desirable than reducing the record length as a method of lessening the total computation time required without greatly degrading the quantity of the estimates.

Indirect Estimation of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Hydroxyl Radical Concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Williams, J.

2017-12-01

Hydroxyl radical (OH) react with many gasous compounds in the atmosphere and is regarded as the cleanser of our atmosphere and affect human health, air quality and climate. Mean age of air, which means the average transit time since an air parcel is emitted from earth surface until sampled, is derived from SF6 based on aircraft observations in mid-latitude UTLS region. The domain loss of methyl chloride and methane is the removal by OH, thus using pseudo first order reaction the OH concentration is calculated against mean age. A tropospheric mean OH concentration is calculated in the range of (4 8)*10^5 molecules cm-3 and a stratospheric mean OH concentration is around (3 5)*10^5 molecules cm-3.

Error models for official mortality forecasts.

PubMed

Alho, J M; Spencer, B D

1990-09-01

"The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models. We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals. We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future. Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year. For other ages the chances are much less than 95%." excerpt

Age and skeletal type-related changes of some cephalometric parameters in Finnish girls.

PubMed

Haavikko, K; Rahkamo, A

1989-08-01

The aim of the present study was to define some cephalometric standards in a group of 217 Finnish girls from 7.0 to 18.0 years of age and furthermore to estimate the influence of the skeletal classes on these standards. Age-related changes were seen between the standards of the youngest (7.0-9.5 years) and the oldest (14.5-18.0 years) group where 9 out of 15 of the inspected angles increased with age, three of them ANPr***, SNPg** and SNB* significantly, and 6 decreased, four of them significantly: ANPg***, ANB**, NL/ML* and RL/ML*. The cranial base angles did not show any significant age-related or skeletal type-related variations. Between the skeletal groups I and II significant differences were seen in 11 variables. Between skeletal I and III groups, 7 angles were significantly different. The results demonstrate that when cephalometric standards are used, they should be derived from that population, they should be age related, and the skeletal pattern should be taken into account.

Radiation Dose to the Lens of the Eye from Computed Tomography Scans of the Head

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Januzis, Natalie Ann

While it is well known that exposure to radiation can result in cataract formation, questions still remain about the presence of a dose threshold in radiation cataractogenesis. Since the exposure history from diagnostic CT exams is well documented in a patient's medical record, the population of patients chronically exposed to radiation from head CT exams may be an interesting area to explore for further research in this area. However, there are some challenges in estimating lens dose from head CT exams. An accurate lens dosimetry model would have to account for differences in imaging protocols, differences in head size, and the use of any dose reduction methods. The overall objective of this dissertation was to develop a comprehensive method to estimate radiation dose to the lens of the eye for patients receiving CT scans of the head. This research is comprised of a physics component, in which a lens dosimetry model was derived for head CT, and a clinical component, which involved the application of that dosimetry model to patient data. The physics component includes experiments related to the physical measurement of the radiation dose to the lens by various types of dosimeters placed within anthropomorphic phantoms. These dosimeters include high-sensitivity MOSFETs, TLDs, and radiochromic film. The six anthropomorphic phantoms used in these experiments range in age from newborn to adult. First, the lens dose from five clinically relevant head CT protocols was measured in the anthropomorphic phantoms with MOSFET dosimeters on two state-of-the-art CT scanners. The volume CT dose index (CTDIvol), which is a standard CT output index, was compared to the measured lens doses. Phantom age-specific CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factors were derived using linear regression analysis. Since head size can vary among individuals of the same age, a method was derived to estimate the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor using the effective head diameter. These conversion factors were derived for each scanner individually, but also were derived with the combined data from the two scanners as a means to investigate the feasibility of a scanner-independent method. Using the scanner-independent method to derive the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor from the effective head diameter, most of the fitted lens dose values fell within 10-15% of the measured values from the phantom study, suggesting that this is a fairly accurate method of estimating lens dose from the CTDIvol with knowledge of the patient's head size. Second, the dose reduction potential of organ-based tube current modulation (OB-TCM) and its effect on the CTDIvol-to-lens dose estimation method was investigated. The lens dose was measured with MOSFET dosimeters placed within the same six anthropomorphic phantoms. The phantoms were scanned with the five clinical head CT protocols with OB-TCM enabled on the one scanner model at our institution equipped with this software. The average decrease in lens dose with OB-TCM ranged from 13.5 to 26.0%. Using the size-specific method to derive the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor from the effective head diameter for protocols with OB-TCM, the majority of the fitted lens dose values fell within 15-18% of the measured values from the phantom study. Third, the effect of gantry angulation on lens dose was investigated by measuring the lens dose with TLDs placed within the six anthropomorphic phantoms. The 2-dimensional spatial distribution of dose within the areas of the phantoms containing the orbit was measured with radiochromic film. A method was derived to determine the CTDIvol-to-lens dose conversion factor based upon distance from the primary beam scan range to the lens. The average dose to the lens region decreased substantially for almost all the phantoms (ranging from 67 to 92%) when the orbit was exposed to scattered radiation compared to the primary beam. The effectiveness of this method to reduce lens dose is highly dependent upon the shape and size of the head, which influences whether or not the angled scan range coverage can include the entire brain volume and still avoid the orbit. The clinical component of this dissertation involved performing retrospective patient studies in the pediatric and adult populations, and reconstructing the lens doses from head CT examinations with the methods derived in the physics component. The cumulative lens doses in the patients selected for the retrospective study ranged from 40 to 1020 mGy in the pediatric group, and 53 to 2900 mGy in the adult group. This dissertation represents a comprehensive approach to lens of the eye dosimetry in CT imaging of the head. The collected data and derived formulas can be used in future studies on radiation-induced cataracts from repeated CT imaging of the head. Additionally, it can be used in the areas of personalized patient dose management, and protocol optimization and clinician training.

Retinal Parameters as Compared with Head Circumference, Height, Weight, and Body Mass Index in Children in Kenya and Bhutan.

PubMed

Grundy, Sara J; Tshering, Lhab; Wanjala, Stanley W; Diamond, Megan B; Audi, Martin S; Prasad, Sashank; Shinohara, Russell T; Rogo, Debora; Wangmo, Dechen; Wangdi, Ugyen; Aarayang, Abi; Tshering, Thukten; Burke, Thomas F; Mateen, Farrah J

2018-06-11

The retina shares embryological derivation with the brain and may provide a new measurement of overall growth status, especially useful in resource-limited settings. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) provides detailed quantification of retinal structures. We enrolled community-dwelling children ages 3-11 years old in Siaya, Kenya and Thimphu, Bhutan in 2016. We measured head circumference (age < 5 years only), height, and weight, and standardized these by age and gender. Research staff performed OCT ( iScan ; Optovue, Inc., Fremont, CA), measuring the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and macular ganglion cell complex (GCC) thicknesses. A neuro-ophthalmologist performed quality control for centration, motion artifact, and algorithm-derived quality scores. Generalized estimating equations were used to determine the relationship between anthropometric and retinal measurements. Two hundred and fifty-eight children (139 females, average age 6.4 years) successfully completed at least one retinal scan, totaling 1,048 scans. Nine hundred and twenty-two scans (88.0%) were deemed usable. Fifty-three of the 258 children (20.5%) were able to complete all six scans. Kenyan children had a thinner average GCC ( P < 0.001) than Bhutanese children after adjustment for age and gender, but not RNFL ( P = 0.70). In models adjusting for age, gender, and study location, none of standardized height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) were statistically significantly associated with RNFL or GCC. We determined that OCT is feasible in some children in resource-limited settings, particularly those > 4 years old, using the iScan device. We found no evidence for GCC or RNFL as a proxy for height-, weight-, or BMI-for-age. The variation in mean GCC thickness in Asian versus African children warrants further investigation.

Prevalence of toddler, child and adolescent overweight and obesity derived from primary care electronic medical records: an observational study

PubMed Central

Biro, Suzanne; Barber, Dave; Williamson, Tyler; Morkem, Rachael; Khan, Shahriar; Janssen, Ian

2016-01-01

Background: Population monitoring and surveillance of objectively measured child weight data in Canada is limited to national surveys with poor regional applicability, and no healthy weight data are available for children less than 2 years of age. We aimed to determine the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity using objective measures derived from primary care electronic medical records. Methods: Observational data included all height and weight records for children less than 20 years of age, between 2004 and 2013, from 3 Ontario primary care research networks. We calculated body mass index (BMI)-for-age and weight-for-length using the World Health Organization Growth Standards and Reference to assign growth status indicator categories by age group. Descriptive data and prevalence estimates were generated for 2013. We also compared weight-for-length for children less than 2 years of age with a corresponding billing code for known well-child visits. Results: Our study included 8261 children with a corresponding growth status indicator, a sample close to 4 times larger than the national survey sample. In 2013, 28.4% of children aged 5-19 years, and 6% of children aged 0-5 years, were categorized as overweight or obese. Between 2008 and 2013, the total number of 18-month well baby visit billing codes was 1152; 6.9% of this group were categorized as overweight or obese; 19.2% were categorized as having risk of overweight. Interpretation: Primary care electronic medical records show good potential for ongoing population monitoring of overweight and obesity, particularly for very young children for whom early intervention is likely to show the greatest positive health impact. PMID:27730118

Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

2008-01-01

Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

A Comparison of Growth Percentile and Value-Added Models of Teacher Performance. Working Paper #39

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guarino, Cassandra M.; Reckase, Mark D.; Stacy, Brian W.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.

2014-01-01

School districts and state departments of education frequently must choose between a variety of methods to estimating teacher quality. This paper examines under what circumstances the decision between estimators of teacher quality is important. We examine estimates derived from student growth percentile measures and estimates derived from commonly…

Prevalence of Mammographically Dense Breasts in the United States

PubMed Central

Gangnon, Ronald E.; Burt, Veronica; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Hampton, John M.; Wellman, Robert D.; Kerlikowske, Karla; Miglioretti, Diana L.

2014-01-01

Background National legislation is under consideration that would require women with mammographically dense breasts to be informed of their breast density and encouraged to discuss supplemental breast cancer screening with their health care providers. The number of US women potentially affected by this legislation is unknown. Methods We determined the mammographic breast density distribution by age and body mass index (BMI) using data from 1518 599 mammograms conducted from 2007 through 2010 at mammography facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC). We applied these breast density distributions to age- and BMI-specific counts of the US female population derived from the 2010 US Census and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to estimate the number of US women with dense breasts. Results Overall, 43.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 43.1% to 43.4%) of women 40 to 74 years of age had heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts, and this proportion was inversely associated with age and BMI. Based on the age and BMI distribution of US women, we estimated that 27.6 million women (95% CI = 27.5 to 27.7 million) aged 40 to 74 years in the United States have heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts. Women aged 40 to 49 years (N = 12.3 million) accounted for 44.3% of this group. Conclusion The prevalence of dense breasts among US women of common breast cancer screening ages exceeds 25 million. Policymakers and healthcare providers should consider this large prevalence when debating breast density notification legislation and designing strategies to ensure that women who are notified have opportunities to evaluate breast cancer risk and discuss and pursue supplemental screening options if deemed appropriate. PMID:25217577

Characterization of the benchmark binary NLTT 33370 {sup ,}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlieder, Joshua E.; Bonnefoy, Mickaël; Herbst, T. M.

2014-03-01

We confirm the binary nature of the nearby, very low mass (VLM) system NLTT 33370 with adaptive optics imaging and present resolved near-infrared photometry and integrated light optical and near-infrared spectroscopy to characterize the system. VLT-NaCo and LBTI-LMIRCam images show significant orbital motion between 2013 February and 2013 April. Optical spectra reveal weak, gravity-sensitive alkali lines and strong lithium 6708 Å absorption that indicate the system is younger than field age. VLT-SINFONI near-IR spectra also show weak, gravity-sensitive features and spectral morphology that is consistent with other young VLM dwarfs. We combine the constraints from all age diagnostics to estimatemore » a system age of ∼30-200 Myr. The 1.2-4.7 μm spectral energy distribution of the components point toward T {sub eff} = 3200 ± 500 K and T {sub eff} = 3100 ± 500 K for NLTT 33370 A and B, respectively. The observed spectra, derived temperatures, and estimated age combine to constrain the component spectral types to the range M6-M8. Evolutionary models predict masses of 97{sub −48}{sup +41} M{sub Jup} and 91{sub −44}{sup +41} M{sub Jup} from the estimated luminosities of the components. KPNO-Phoenix spectra allow us to estimate the systemic radial velocity of the binary. The Galactic kinematics of NLTT 33370AB are broadly consistent with other young stars in the solar neighborhood. However, definitive membership in a young, kinematic group cannot be assigned at this time and further follow-up observations are necessary to fully constrain the system's kinematics. The proximity, age, and late-spectral type of this binary make it very novel and an ideal target for rapid, complete orbit determination. The system is one of only a few model calibration benchmarks at young ages and VLMs.« less

On the impact of different approaches to classify age-related macular degeneration: Results from the German AugUR study.

PubMed

Brandl, Caroline; Zimmermann, Martina E; Günther, Felix; Barth, Teresa; Olden, Matthias; Schelter, Sabine C; Kronenberg, Florian; Loss, Julika; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Helbig, Horst; Weber, Bernhard H F; Stark, Klaus J; Heid, Iris M

2018-06-06

While age-related macular degeneration (AMD) poses an important personal and public health burden, comparing epidemiological studies on AMD is hampered by differing approaches to classify AMD. In our AugUR study survey, recruiting residents from in/around Regensburg, Germany, aged 70+, we analyzed the AMD status derived from color fundus images applying two different classification systems. Based on 1,040 participants with gradable fundus images for at least one eye, we show that including individuals with only one gradable eye (n = 155) underestimates AMD prevalence and we provide a correction procedure. Bias-corrected and standardized to the Bavarian population, late AMD prevalence is 7.3% (95% confidence interval = [5.4; 9.4]). We find substantially different prevalence estimates for "early/intermediate AMD" depending on the classification system: 45.3% (95%-CI = [41.8; 48.7]) applying the Clinical Classification (early/intermediate AMD) or 17.1% (95%-CI = [14.6; 19.7]) applying the Three Continent AMD Consortium Severity Scale (mild/moderate/severe early AMD). We thus provide a first effort to grade AMD in a complete study with different classification systems, a first approach for bias-correction from individuals with only one gradable eye, and the first AMD prevalence estimates from a German elderly population. Our results underscore substantial differences for early/intermediate AMD prevalence estimates between classification systems and an urgent need for harmonization.

Health risk assessment of ochratoxin A for all age-sex strata in a market economy.

PubMed

Kuiper-Goodman, T; Hilts, C; Billiard, S M; Kiparissis, Y; Richard, I D K; Hayward, S

2010-02-01

In order to manage risk of ochratoxin A (OTA) in foods, we re-evaluated the tolerable daily intake (TDI), derived the negligible cancer risk intake (NCRI), and conducted a probabilistic risk assessment. A new approach was developed to derive 'usual' probabilistic exposure in the presence of highly variable occurrence data, such as encountered with low levels of OTA. Canadian occurrence data were used for various raw food commodities or finished foods and were combined with US Department of Agriculture (USDA) food consumption data, which included data on infants and young children. Both variability and uncertainty in input data were considered in the resulting exposure estimates for various age/sex strata. Most people were exposed to OTA on a daily basis. Mean adjusted exposures for all age-sex groups were generally below the NCRI of 4 ng OTA kg bw(-1), except for 1-4-year-olds as a result of their lower body weight. For children, the major contributors of OTA were wheat-based foods followed by oats, rice, and raisins. Beer, coffee, and wine also contributed to total OTA exposure in older individuals. Predicted exposure to OTA decreased when European Commission maximum limits were applied to the occurrence data. The impact on risk for regular eaters of specific commodities was also examined.

The curved 14C vs. δ13C relationship in dissolved inorganic carbon: A useful tool for groundwater age- and geochemical interpretations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Han, Liang-Feng; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, Pradeep

2014-01-01

Determination of the 14C content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is useful for dating of groundwater. However, in addition to radioactive decay, the 14C content in DIC (14CDIC) can be affected by many geochemical and physical processes and numerous models have been proposed to refine radiocarbon ages of DIC in groundwater systems. Changes in the δ13C content of DIC (δ13CDIC) often can be used to deduce the processes that affect the carbon isotopic composition of DIC and the 14C value during the chemical evolution of groundwater. This paper shows that a curved relationship of 14CDIC vs. δ13CDIC will be observed for groundwater systems if (1) the change in δ13C value in DIC is caused by a first-order or pseudo-first-order process, e.g. isotopic exchange between DIC and solid carbonate, (2) the reaction/process progresses with the ageing of the groundwater, i.e. with decay of 14C in DIC, and (3) the magnitude of the rate of change in δ13C of DIC is comparable with that of 14C decay. In this paper, we use a lumped parameter method to derive a model based on the curved relationship between 14CDICand δ13CDIC. The derived model, if used for isotopic exchange between DIC and solid carbonate, is identical to that derived by Gonfiantini and Zuppi (2003). The curved relationship of 14CDIC vs. δ13CDIC can be applied to interpret the age of the DIC in groundwater. Results of age calculations using the method discussed in this paper are compared with those obtained by using other methods that calculate the age of DIC based on adjusted initial radiocarbon values for individual samples. This paper shows that in addition to groundwater age interpretation, the lumped parameter method presented here also provides a useful tool for geochemical interpretations, e.g. estimation of apparent rates of geochemical reactions and revealing the complexity of the geochemical environment.

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

An 800-Year Record of Sediment-Derived, Instrumentally-Calibrated Foraminiferal Mg/Ca SST Estimates From the Tropical North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, D. E.; Abahazi, M. A.; Thunell, R. C.; Tappa, E. J.

2005-12-01

Most geochemical paleoclimate proxies are calibrated to different climate variables using laboratory culture, surface sediment, or sediment trap experiments. The varved, high-deposition rate sediments of the Cariaco Basin (Venezuela) provide the nearly unique opportunity to compare and calibrate paleoceanographic proxy data directly against true oceanic historical instrumental climate records. Here we present one of the first sediment-derived foraminiferal-Mg/Ca to SST calibrations spanning A. D. 1870-1990. The record of Mg/Ca-estimated tropical North Atlantic SSTs is then extended back to approximately A. D. 1200. Box core PL07-73 BC, recovered from the northeastern slope of Cariaco Basin, was sampled at consecutive 1 mm increments and processed for foraminiferal population, stable isotope, and Mg/Ca (by ICP-AES) analyses. The age model for this core was established by correlating faunal population records from PL07-73 to a nearby very well-dated Cariaco Basin box core, PL07-71 BC. The resulting age model yields consecutive sample intervals of one to two years. Mg/Ca ratios measured on Globigerina bulloides in samples deposited between A. D. 1870 and 1990 were calibrated to monthly SSTs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's SST data set for the Cariaco Basin grid square. Annual correlations between G. bulloides Mg/Ca and instrumental SST were highest (r=0.6, p<.0001, n=120) for the months of March, April, and May, the time when sediment trap studies indicate G. bulloides is most abundant in the basin. The full-length Mg/Ca-estimated SST record is characterized by decadal- and centennial-scale variability. The tropical western North Atlantic does not appear to have experienced a pronounced Medieval Warm Period relative to the complete record. However, strong Little Ice Age cooling of as much as 3 ° C occurred between A. D. 1525 and 1625. Spring SSTs gradually rose between A. D. 1650 and 1900 followed by a 2.5 ° C warming over the 20th century.

Paleoclimate Reconstrcution on the Lower Bengal Fan for the last 200 ka - Implications for Monsoonal Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M. E.; Lantzsch, H.; Reilly, B. T.; Dekens, P.; Das, S. K.; Martos, Y. M.; Williams, T.

2017-12-01

IODP Expedition 354 drilled seven sites along an east west oriented core transect of 320 km length at 8°N in the lower Bengal Fan (France-Lanord et al., 2015). The sites were recovered to reconstruct the Himalayan uplift, the monsoonal development, and the turbiditic depositional mechanisms. Here, we concentrate on the hemipelagic sequences that represent a several meter thick top layer of Late Quaternary age. We studied a number of physical, optical, geochemical, stable isotopic, and grain-size properties of the top layer in order to estimate sedimentary properties, and to assess the climate and monsoonal development of the region during the last glacial cycle. The Toba Ash 1 (74 ka) is a distinct time marker in most physical property data sets. We first derived age models from records of wet-bulk density as well as color reflectance b*. Both show dominant precession cyclicity, which is in good agreement with ^18O records derived from Chinese caves. We then derived age models from the strong correlation of color reflectance L* to the ^18O record of Antarctic ice core EDML. Independent age models originate from ^18O measurements of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer and from records of relative paleointensity. We will compare the various age models obtained from tuning experiments and discuss their chronologic and paleoclimatic implications for the last 200 ka (MIS1-7). Preliminary results further indicate that grain sizes vary in-phase with monsoonal strength, showing coarser grains for insolation minima. Elemental geochemical ratios indicate higher relative terrigenous input on obliquity time scales, primarily during stadials, whereas total organic carbon and total nitrogen vary stronger on glacial-to-interglacial time scales with lower contents usually for interglacials. We will discuss these preliminary results in the context of the regional monsoon development.

Chronologic implications for slow cooling of troctolite 76535 and temporal relationships between the Mg-suite and the ferroan anorthosite suite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borg, Lars E.; Connelly, James N.; Cassata, William S.; Gaffney, Amy M.; Bizzarro, Martin

2017-03-01

Ages have been obtained using the 87Rb-87Sr, 147Sm-143Nd, and 146Sm-142Nd isotopic systems for one of the most slowly cooled lunar rocks, Apollo 17 Mg-suite troctolite 76535. The 147Sm-143Nd, 146Sm-142Nd, and Rb-Sr ages derived from plagioclase, olivine, and pyroxene mineral isochrons yield concordant ages of 4307 ± 11 Ma, 4299+29/-35 Ma, and 4279 ± 52 Ma, respectively. These ages are slightly younger than the age determined on ferroan anorthosite suite (FAS) rock 60025 and are therefore consistent with the traditional magma ocean model of lunar differentiation in which the Mg-suite is intruded into the anorthositic crust. However, the Sm-Nd ages record when the rock passed below the closing temperature of the Sm-Nd system in this rock at ∼825 °C, whereas the Rb-Sr age likely records the closure temperature of ∼650 °C. A cooling rate of 3.9 °C/Ma is determined using the ages reported here and in the literature and calculated closure temperatures for the Ar-Ar, Pb-Pb, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd systems. This cooling rate is in good agreement with cooling rates estimated from petrographic observations. Slow cooling can lower apparent Sm-Nd crystallization ages by up to ∼80 Ma in the slowest cooled rocks like 76535, and likely accounts for some of the variation of ages reported for lunar crustal rocks. Nevertheless, slow cooling cannot account for the overlap in FAS and Mg-suite rock ages. Instead, this overlap appears to reflect the concordance of Mg-suite and FAS magmatism in the lunar crust as indicated by ages calculated for the solidus temperature of 76535 and 60025 of 4384 ± 24 Ma and 4383 ± 17, respectively. Not only are the solidus ages of 76535 and 60025 nearly concordant, but the Sm-Nd isotopic systematics suggest they are derived from reservoirs that were minimally differentiated prior to ∼4.38 Ga. Although the Sr isotopic composition of 60025 indicates its source was minimally differentiated, the Sr isotopic composition of 76535 indicates it underwent fractionation just prior to solidification of the 76535. These observations are consistent with both a magma ocean or a serial magmatism model of lunar differentiation. In either model, differentiation of lunar source regions must occur near the solidification age of thee samples. Perhaps the best estimate for the formation age of lunar source regions is the Rb-Sr model age of the 76535 source region age of 4401 ± 32 Ma. This is in good agreement with Sm-Nd model ages for the formation of ur-KREEP and suggests that differentiation of a least part of the Moon could not have occurred prior to ∼4.43 Ga.

Seasonal comparisons of sea ice concentration estimates derived from SSM/I, OKEAN, and RADARSAT data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belchansky, Gennady I.; Douglas, David C.

2002-01-01

The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) microwave satellite radiometer and its predecessor SMMR are primary sources of information for global sea ice and climate studies. However, comparisons of SSM/I, Landsat, AVHRR, and ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) have shown substantial seasonal and regional differences in their estimates of sea ice concentration. To evaluate these differences, we compared SSM/I estimates of sea ice coverage derived with the NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms to estimates made using RADARSAT, and OKEAN-01 satellite sensor data. The study area included the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, and adjacent parts of the Arctic Ocean, during October 1995 through October 1999. Ice concentration estimates from spatially and temporally near-coincident imagery were calculated using independent algorithms for each sensor type. The OKEAN algorithm implemented the satellite's two-channel active (radar) and passive microwave data in a linear mixture model based on the measured values of brightness temperature and radar backscatter. The RADARSAT algorithm utilized a segmentation approach of the measured radar backscatter, and the SSM/I ice concentrations were derived at National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) using the NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms. Seasonal and monthly differences between SSM/I, OKEAN, and RADARSAT ice concentrations were calculated and compared. Overall, total sea ice concentration estimates derived independently from near-coincident RADARSAT, OKEAN-01, and SSM/I satellite imagery demonstrated mean differences of less than 5.5% (S.D.<9.5%) during the winter period. Differences between the SSM/I NASA Team and the SSM/I Bootstrap concentrations were no more than 3.1% (S.D.<5.4%) during this period. RADARSAT and OKEAN-01 data both yielded higher total ice concentrations than the NASA Team and the Bootstrap algorithms. The Bootstrap algorithm yielded higher total ice concentrations than the NASA Team algorithm. Total ice concentrations derived from OKEAN-01 and SSM/I satellite imagery were highly correlated during winter, spring, and fall, with mean differences of less than 8.1% (S.D.<15%) for the NASA Team algorithm, and less than 2.8% (S.D.<13.8%) for the Bootstrap algorithm. Respective differences between SSM/I NASA Team and SSM/I Bootstrap total concentrations were less than 5.3% (S.D.<6.9%). Monthly mean differences between SSM/I and OKEAN differed annually by less than 6%, with smaller differences primarily in winter. The NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms underestimated the total sea ice concentrations relative to the RADARSAT ScanSAR no more than 3.0% (S.D.<9%) and 1.2% (S.D.<7.5%) during cold months, and no more than 12% and 7% during summer, respectively. ScanSAR tended to estimate higher ice concentrations for ice concentrations greater than 50%, when compared to SSM/I during all months. ScanSAR underestimated total sea ice concentration by 2% compared to the OKEAN-01 algorithm during cold months, and gave an overestimation by 2% during spring and summer months. Total NASA Team and Bootstrap sea ice concentration estimates derived from coincident SSM/I and OKEAN-01 data demonstrated mean differences of no more than 5.3% (S.D.<7%), 3.1% (S.D.<5.5%), 2.0% (S.D.<5.5%), and 7.3% (S.D.<10%) for fall, winter, spring, and summer periods, respectively. Large disagreements were observed between the OKEAN and NASA Team results in spring and summer for estimates of the first-year (FY) and multiyear (MY) age classes. The OKEAN-01 algorithm and data tended to estimate, on average, lower concentrations of young or FY ice and higher concentrations of total and MY ice for all months and seasons. Our results contribute to the growing body of documentation about the levels of disparity obtained when seasonal sea ice concentrations are estimated using various types of satellite data and algorithms.

Growth, functional capacities and motivation for achievement and competitiveness in youth basketball: an interdisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Carvalho, Humberto Moreira; Gonçalves, Carlos E; Collins, Dave; Paes, Roberto R

2018-04-01

The interaction of multiple influences on the path to sport success is not yet fully understood by sport scientists. In this study, we examined variation in body size, functional capacities and motivation for achievement, competitiveness and deliberate practice of youth basketball players associated with differences in biological maturity status, chronological age and years of training experience. Reflecting the importance of interactive effects, we examined the relationships between the psychological variables and functional capacities. Fifty-eight male basketball players aged 9.5 to 15.5 years were considered. Variables included chronological age, estimated age at peak height velocity, stature, body mass and sitting height by anthropometry; the Work and Family Orientation and Deliberate Practice Motivation Questionnaires were also used. Finally, the Line Drill test and Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery level 1 (Yo-Yo IR1) tests were used as functional capacities indicators for basketball. Variance components models derived from series of multilevel linear regression models revealed a substantial variation by maturity status for body size, functional capacities indicators, mastery and will to excel. The influence of estimated maturity status on mastery and will to excel was independent of age and years of experience. In contrast, no relationships were observed between psychological variables and functional capacities indicators. We conclude that growth-related changes are relevant to understanding players´ motivations for achievement, competitiveness and deliberate practice. This should be of interest to those involved in the selection and development of youth basketball players.

'In general, how do you feel today?'--self-rated health in the context of aging in India.

PubMed

Hirve, Siddhivinayak

2014-01-01

This thesis is centered on self-rated health (SRH) as an outcome measure, as a predictor, and as a marker. The thesis uses primary data from the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) implemented in India in 2007. The structural equation modeling approach is employed to understand the pathways through which the social environment, disability, disease, and sociodemographic characteristics influence SRH among older adults aged 50 years and above. Cox proportional hazard model is used to explore the role of SRH as a predictor for mortality and the role of disability in modifying this effect. The hierarchical ordered probit modeling approach, which combines information from anchoring vignettes with SRH, was used to address the long overlooked methodological concern of interpersonal incomparability. Finally, multilevel model-based small area estimation techniques were used to demonstrate the use of large national surveys and census information to derive precise SRH prevalence estimates at the district and sub-district level. The thesis advocates the use of such a simple measure to identify vulnerable communities for targeted health interventions, to plan and prioritize resource allocation, and to evaluate health interventions in resource-scarce settings. The thesis provides the basis and impetus to generate and integrate similar and harmonized adult health and aging data platforms within demographic surveillance systems in different regions of India and elsewhere.

Comparison of age distributions estimated from environmental tracers by using binary-dilution and numerical models of fractured and folded karst: Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Plummer, Niel; Kauffman, Leon J.; Doctor, Daniel H.; Nelms, David L.; Schlosser, Peter

2013-01-01

Measured concentrations of environmental tracers in spring discharge from a karst aquifer in the Shenandoah Valley, USA, were used to refine a numerical groundwater flow model. The karst aquifer is folded and faulted carbonate bedrock dominated by diffuse flow along fractures. The numerical model represented bedrock structure and discrete features (fault zones and springs). Concentrations of 3H, 3He, 4He, and CFC-113 in spring discharge were interpreted as binary dilutions of young (0–8 years) water and old (tracer-free) water. Simulated mixtures of groundwater are derived from young water flowing along shallow paths, with the addition of old water flowing along deeper paths through the model domain that discharge to springs along fault zones. The simulated median age of young water discharged from springs (5.7 years) is slightly older than the median age estimated from 3H/3He data (4.4 years). The numerical model predicted a fraction of old water in spring discharge (0.07) that was half that determined by the binary-dilution model using the 3H/3He apparent age and 3H and CFC-113 data (0.14). This difference suggests that faults and lineaments are more numerous or extensive than those mapped and included in the numerical model.

Incidence and Short-term Mortality From Perforated Peptic Ulcer in Korea: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Bae, SeungJin; Shim, Ki-Nam; Kim, Nayoung; Kang, Jung Mook; Kim, Dong-Sook; Kim, Kyoung-Min; Cho, Yu Kyung; Jung, Sung Woo

2012-01-01

Background Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with serious health and economic outcomes. However, few studies have estimated the incidence and health outcomes of PPU using a nationally representative sample in Asia. We estimated age- and sex-specific incidence and short-term mortality from PPU among Koreans and investigated the risk factors for mortality associated with PPU development. Methods A retrospective population-based study was conducted from 2006 through 2007 using the Korean National Health Insurance claims database. A diagnostic algorithm was derived and validated to identify PPU patients, and PPU incidence rates and 30-day mortality rates were determined. Results From 2006 through 2007, the PPU incidence rate per 100 000 population was 4.4; incidence among men (7.53) was approximately 6 times that among women (1.24). Incidence significantly increased with advanced age, especially among women older than 50 years. Among 4258 PPU patients, 135 (3.15%) died within 30 days of the PPU event. The 30-day mortality rate increased with advanced age and reached almost 20% for patients older than 80 years. The 30-day mortality rate was 10% for women and 2% for men. Older age, being female, and higher comorbidity were independently associated with 30-day mortality rate among PPU patients in Korea. Conclusions Special attention should be paid to elderly women with high comorbidity who develop PPU. PMID:22955110

Cryoconites from Alpine glaciers: Radionuclide accumulation and age estimation with Pu and Cs isotopes and 210Pb.

PubMed

Wilflinger, T; Lettner, H; Hubmer, A; Bossew, P; Sattler, B; Slupetzky, H

2018-06-01

Cryoconites ("cold dust", derived from the Greek) are aeolian sediments accumulated on glacier surfaces. In cryoconites from the surface of the Stubacher Sonnblickkees, a temperate Austrian glacier, extremely high activity concentrations of artificial and natural radionuclides were found. Artificial radionuclides stem from two clearly distinguishable sources, global fallout from the nuclear weapons testing era deposited over a period of years until roughly 1966 and the fallout from Chernobyl in 1986, which was essentially deposited as a single input during one week. Anthropogenic radionuclides identified were 137 Cs, 134 Cs, 238 Pu, 239+240 Pu, 90 Sr, 241 Am, 60 Co, 125 Sb, 154 Eu, and 207 Bi. The naturally occurring radionuclides detected were the long-lived radon decay product 210 Pb, the primordial radionuclide 4  K and the cosmogenic 7 Be. Isotopic ratios of 134 Cs/ 137 Cs and 239+240 Pu/ 238 Pu were used to separate the nuclide inventory into the contributions of the two aforementioned sources, which show varying degrees of mixing and provide information on the mixing age of the cryoconites. Since isotopic ratios of Pu often have high uncertainties due to low absolute concentrations, age estimation based on this method can be quite inaccurate. Additional information about the age of cryoconites was obtained through analysis of 210 Pb, which is constantly deposited over time. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Body Fat and Breast Cancer Risk in Postmenopausal Women: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Rohan, Thomas E.; Heo, Moonseong; Choi, Lydia; Freudenheim, Jo L.; Kamensky, Victor; Ochs-Balcom, Heather M.; Thomson, Cynthia A.; Vitolins, Mara Z.; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Kabat, Geoffrey C.

2013-01-01

Associations between anthropometric indices of obesity and breast cancer risk may fail to capture the true relationship between excess body fat and risk. We used dual-energy-X-ray-absorptiometry- (DXA-) derived measures of body fat obtained in the Women's Health Initiative to examine the association between body fat and breast cancer risk; we compared these risk estimates with those for conventional anthropometric measurements. The study included 10,960 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 years at recruitment, with baseline DXA measurements and no history of breast cancer. During followup (median: 12.9 years), 503 incident breast cancer cases were diagnosed. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. All baseline DXA-derived body fat measures showed strong positive associations with breast cancer risk. The multivariable-adjusted HR for the uppermost quintile level (versus lowest) ranged from 1.53 (95% CI 1.14–2.07) for fat mass of the right leg to 2.05 (1.50–2.79) for fat mass of the trunk. Anthropometric indices (categorized by quintiles) of obesity (BMI (1.97, 1.45–2.68), waist circumference (1.97, 1.46–2.65), and waist : hip ratio (1.91, 1.41–2.58)) were all strongly, positively associated with risk and did not differ from DXA-derived measures in prediction of risk. PMID:23690776

Validation of Maturity Offset in the Fels Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Choh, Audrey C; Czerwinski, Stefan A; Chumlea, Wm Cameron

2016-08-01

Sex-specific equations for predicting maturity offset, time before or after peak height velocity (PHV), were evaluated in 63 girls and 74 boys from the Fels Longitudinal Study. Serially measured heights (0.1 cm), sitting heights (0.1 cm), weights (0.1 kg), and estimated leg lengths (0.1 cm) from 8 to 18 years were used. Predicted age at PHV (years) was calculated as the difference between chronological age (CA) and maturity offset. Actual age at PHV for each child was derived with a triple logistic model (Bock-Thissen-du Toit). Mean predicted maturity offset was negative and lowest at 8 years and increased linearly with increasing CA. Predicted ages at PHV increased linearly with CA from 8 to 18 years in girls and from 8 to 13 years in boys; predictions varied within relatively narrow limits from 12 to 15 years and then increased to 18 years in boys. Differences between predicted and actual ages at PHV among youth of contrasting maturity status were significant across the age range in both sexes. Dependence of predicted age at PHV upon CA at prediction and on actual age at PHV limits its utility as an indicator of maturity timing and in sport talent programs.

Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

PubMed

Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

2013-09-01

Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

PubMed

Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Uv Spectral Dating of Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heap, Sara

1997-07-01

With the advent of very large telescopes like Keck, it has become possible to observe high-z galaxies in the restframe UV and derive ages from line features in their spectra. In the first such study, Dunlop et al. {1996, Nature 381, 481} came to an astonishing conclusion: the restframe UV spectrum of the z=1.55 radio galaxy, 53W091, suggests a population of stars at least 3.5 Gyr old. If their age estimate is correct, the authors say they can rule out an Einstein-de Sitter cosmology with Ho>50. This ERO program seeks to make the method of UV spectral dating more robust by using STIS spectra to refine and verify the model stellar atmospheres, which form the basis of the technique. Specifically, STIS will be used to obtain a high-quality medium-resolution {E230M} spectrum of a star near the main sequence turnoff {such stars contribute the bulk of the mid-UV flux}. Since non-LTE effects have been detected in these stars, we will use the non-LTE modelling program, TLUSTY, developed by Ivan Hubeny {STIS research associate} to analyze the spectrum. We will derive the basic surface properties of the star, Teff, log g, and the abundance ratios, [Fe/H], [Mg/H]. The effective temperature is a critical parameter, since an error in Teff of only 100 degrees translates to a 1 Gyr error in the derived age of a galaxy. We will compare our results with those from optical studies by Edvardsson et al. {1993 A&A 274, 101}.

Iron Age and Anglo-Saxon genomes from East England reveal British migration history.

PubMed

Schiffels, Stephan; Haak, Wolfgang; Paajanen, Pirita; Llamas, Bastien; Popescu, Elizabeth; Loe, Louise; Clarke, Rachel; Lyons, Alice; Mortimer, Richard; Sayer, Duncan; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Cooper, Alan; Durbin, Richard

2016-01-19

British population history has been shaped by a series of immigrations, including the early Anglo-Saxon migrations after 400 CE. It remains an open question how these events affected the genetic composition of the current British population. Here, we present whole-genome sequences from 10 individuals excavated close to Cambridge in the East of England, ranging from the late Iron Age to the middle Anglo-Saxon period. By analysing shared rare variants with hundreds of modern samples from Britain and Europe, we estimate that on average the contemporary East English population derives 38% of its ancestry from Anglo-Saxon migrations. We gain further insight with a new method, rarecoal, which infers population history and identifies fine-scale genetic ancestry from rare variants. Using rarecoal we find that the Anglo-Saxon samples are closely related to modern Dutch and Danish populations, while the Iron Age samples share ancestors with multiple Northern European populations including Britain.

Kinematic Age Estimates for Four Compact Symmetric Objects from the Pearson-Readhead Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, G. B.; Marr, J. M.; Pearson, T. J.; Readhead, A. C. S.

2000-09-01

Based on multiepoch observations at 15 and 43 GHz with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), we detect significant angular expansions between the two hot spots of four compact symmetric objects (CSOs). From these relative motions we derive kinematic ages of between 300 and 1200 yr for the radio emission. These ages lend support to the idea that CSOs are produced in a recent phase of activity. These observations also allow us to study the evolution of the hot spots dynamically in individual sources. In all four sources the hot spots are separating along the source axis, but in 1031+567 the tip of the hot spot appears to be moving almost orthogonally to the source axis. Jet components, seen in three of the four sources observed, are found to be moving relativistically outward from the central engines toward the more slowly moving hot spots.

A graphical method to evaluate predominant geochemical processes occurring in groundwater systems for radiocarbon dating

USGS Publications Warehouse

Han, Liang-Feng; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, Pradeep

2012-01-01

A graphical method is described for identifying geochemical reactions needed in the interpretation of radiocarbon age in groundwater systems. Graphs are constructed by plotting the measured 14C, δ13C, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and are interpreted according to specific criteria to recognize water samples that are consistent with a wide range of processes, including geochemical reactions, carbon isotopic exchange, 14C decay, and mixing of waters. The graphs are used to provide a qualitative estimate of radiocarbon age, to deduce the hydrochemical complexity of a groundwater system, and to compare samples from different groundwater systems. Graphs of chemical and isotopic data from a series of previously-published groundwater studies are used to demonstrate the utility of the approach. Ultimately, the information derived from the graphs is used to improve geochemical models for adjustment of radiocarbon ages in groundwater systems.

Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Fiji.

PubMed

Morrell, Stephen; Lin, Sophia; Tukana, Isimeli; Linhart, Christine; Taylor, Richard; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2016-11-25

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence is traditionally derived from cohort studies that are not always feasible, representative, or available. The present study estimates T2DM incidence in Fijian adults from T2DM prevalence estimates assembled from surveys of 25-64 year old adults conducted over 30 years (n = 14,288). T2DM prevalence by five-year age group from five population-based risk factor surveys conducted over 1980-2011 were variously adjusted for urban-rural residency, ethnicity, and sex to previous censuses (1976, 1986, 1996, 2009) to improve representativeness. Prevalence estimates were then used to calculate T2DM incidence based on birth cohorts from the age-period (Lexis) matrix following the Styblo technique, first used to estimate annual risk of tuberculosis infection (incidence) from sequential Mantoux population surveys. Poisson regression of year, age, sex, and ethnicity strata (n = 160) was used to develop projections of T2DM prevalence and incidence to 2020 based on various scenarios of population weight measured by body mass index (BMI) change. T2DM prevalence and annual incidence increased in Fiji over 1980-2011. Prevalence was higher in Indians and men than i-Taukei and women. Incidence was higher in Indians and women. From regression analyses, absolute reductions of 2.6 to 5.1% in T2DM prevalence (13-26% lower), and 0.5-0.9 per 1000 person-years in incidence (8-14% lower), could be expected in 2020 in adults if mean population weight could be reduced by 1-4 kg, compared to the current period trend in weight gain. This is the first application of the Styblo technique to calculate T2DM incidence from population-based prevalence surveys over time. Reductions in population BMI are predicted to reduce T2DM incidence and prevalence in Fiji among adults aged 25-64 years.

Evolution on a volcanic conveyor belt: using phylogeographic reconstructions and K-Ar-based ages of the Hawaiian Islands to estimate molecular evolutionary rates.

PubMed

Fleischer, R C; McIntosh, C E; Tarr, C L

1998-04-01

The Hawaiian Islands form as the Pacific Plate moves over a 'hot spot' in the earth's mantle where magma extrudes through the crust to build huge shield volcanos. The islands subside and erode as the plate carries them to the north-west, eventually to become coral atolls and seamounts. Thus islands are ordered linearly by age, with the oldest islands in the north-west (e.g. Kauai at 5.1 Ma) and the youngest in the south-east (e.g. Hawaii at 0.43 Ma). K-Ar estimates of the date of an island's formation provide a maximum age for the taxa inhabiting the island. These ages can be used to calibrate rates of molecular change under the following assumptions: (i) K-Ar dates are accurate; (ii) tree topologies show that derivation of taxa parallels the timing of island formation; (iii) populations do not colonize long after island emergence; (iv) the coalescent point for sister taxa does not greatly predate the formation of the colonized younger island; (v) saturation effects and (vi) among-lineage rate variation are minimal or correctable; and (vii) unbiased standard errors of distances and regressions can be estimated from multiple pairwise comparisons. We use the approach to obtain overall corrected rate calibrations for: (i) part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in Hawaiian drepanidines (0.016 sequence divergence/Myr); (ii) the Yp1 gene in Hawaiian Drosophila (0.019/Myr Kambysellis et al. 1995); and (iii) parts of the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA and tRNAval in Laupala crickets (0.024-0.102/Myr, Shaw 1996). We discuss the reliability of the estimates given the assumptions (i-vii) above and contrast the results with previous calibrations of Adh in Hawaiian Drosophila and chloroplast DNA in lobeliods.

Estimation of Gestational Age, Using Neonatal Anthropometry: A Cross-sectional Study in India

PubMed Central

Thawani, Rajat; Faridi, M.M.A.; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

2013-01-01

Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R=0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R=0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks)=5.437×W–0.781×W2+2.815×HC–0.041×HC2+0.285×MUAC–22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R=0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46% (±1 week), 75.5% (+2 weeks), and 91.5% (+3 weeks). This mathematical model may be used in identifying preterm neonates. PMID:24592594

Prediction of Waitlist Mortality in Adult Heart Transplant Candidates: The Candidate Risk Score.

PubMed

Jasseron, Carine; Legeai, Camille; Jacquelinet, Christian; Leprince, Pascal; Cantrelle, Christelle; Audry, Benoît; Porcher, Raphael; Bastien, Olivier; Dorent, Richard

2017-09-01

The cardiac allocation system in France is currently based on urgency and geography. Medical urgency is defined by therapies without considering objective patient mortality risk factors. This study aimed to develop a waitlist mortality risk score from commonly available candidate variables. The study included all patients, aged 16 years or older, registered on the national registry CRISTAL for first single-organ heart transplantation between January 2010 and December 2014. This population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into derivation and validation cohorts. The association of variables at listing with 1-year waitlist death or delisting for worsening medical condition was assessed within the derivation cohort. The predictors were used to generate a candidate risk score (CRS). Validation of the CRS was performed in the validation cohort. Concordance probability estimation (CPE) was used to evaluate the discriminative capacity of the models. During the study period, 2333 patients were newly listed. The derivation (n =1 555) and the validation cohorts (n = 778) were similar. Short-term mechanical circulatory support, natriuretic peptide decile, glomerular filtration rate, and total bilirubin level were included in a simplified model and incorporated into the score. The Concordance probability estimation of the CRS was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. The correlation between observed and expected 1-year waitlist mortality in the validation cohort was 0.87. The candidate risk score provides an accurate objective prediction of waitlist mortality. It is currently being used to develop a modified cardiac allocation system in France.

Estimating Time to the Common Ancestor for a Beneficial Allele

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel; Coop, Graham; Stephens, Matthew; Novembre, John

2018-01-01

Abstract The haplotypes of a beneficial allele carry information about its history that can shed light on its age and the putative cause for its increase in frequency. Specifically, the signature of an allele’s age is contained in the pattern of variation that mutation and recombination impose on its haplotypic background. We provide a method to exploit this pattern and infer the time to the common ancestor of a positively selected allele following a rapid increase in frequency. We do so using a hidden Markov model which leverages the length distribution of the shared ancestral haplotype, the accumulation of derived mutations on the ancestral background, and the surrounding background haplotype diversity. Using simulations, we demonstrate how the inclusion of information from both mutation and recombination events increases accuracy relative to approaches that only consider a single type of event. We also show the behavior of the estimator in cases where data do not conform to model assumptions, and provide some diagnostics for assessing and improving inference. Using the method, we analyze population-specific patterns in the 1000 Genomes Project data to estimate the timing of adaptation for several variants which show evidence of recent selection and functional relevance to diet, skin pigmentation, and morphology in humans. PMID:29361025

The prioritisation of paediatrics and palliative care in cancer control plans in Africa.

PubMed

Weaver, M S; Yao, A J J; Renner, L A; Harif, M; Lam, C G

2015-06-09

Given the burden of childhood cancer and palliative care need in Africa, this paper investigated the paediatric and palliative care elements in cancer control plans. We conducted a comparative content analysis of accessible national cancer control plans in Africa, using a health systems perspective attentive to context, development, scope, and monitoring/evaluation. Burden estimates were derived from World Bank, World Health Organisation, and Worldwide Palliative Care Alliance. Eighteen national plans and one Africa-wide plan (10 English, 9 French) were accessible, representing 9 low-, 4 lower-middle-, and 5 upper-middle-income settings. Ten plans discussed cancer control in the context of noncommunicable diseases. Paediatric cancer was mentioned in 7 national plans, representing 5127 children, or 13% of the estimated continental burden for children aged 0-14 years. Palliative care needs were recognised in 11 national plans, representing 157 490 children, or 24% of the estimated Africa-wide burden for children aged 0-14 years; four plans specified paediatric palliative needs. Palliative care was itemised in four budgets. Sample indicators and equity measures were identified, including those highlighting contextual needs for treatment access and completion. Recognising explicit strategies and funding for paediatric and palliative services may guide prioritised cancer control efforts in resource-limited settings.

Cryptosporidiosis susceptibility and risk: a case study.

PubMed

Makri, Anna; Modarres, Reza; Parkin, Rebecca

2004-02-01

Regional estimates of cryptosporidiosis risks from drinking water exposure were developed and validated, accounting for AIDS status and age. We constructed a model with probability distributions and point estimates representing Cryptosporidium in tap water, tap water consumed per day (exposure characterization); dose response, illness given infection, prolonged illness given illness; and three conditional probabilities describing the likelihood of case detection by active surveillance (health effects characterization). The model predictions were combined with population data to derive expected case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population, by age and AIDS status, borough specific and for New York City overall in 2000 (risk characterization). They were compared with same-year surveillance data to evaluate predictive ability, assumed to represent true incidence of waterborne cryptosporidiosis. The predicted mean risks, similar to previously published estimates for this region, overpredicted observed incidence-most extensively when accounting for AIDS status. The results suggest that overprediction may be due to conservative parameters applied to both non-AIDS and AIDS populations, and that biological differences for children need to be incorporated. Interpretations are limited by the unknown accuracy of available surveillance data, in addition to variability and uncertainty of model predictions. The model appears sensitive to geographical differences in AIDS prevalence. The use of surveillance data for validation and model parameters pertinent to susceptibility are discussed.

Association between blood lead and blood pressure: Results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007 to 2011).

PubMed

Bushnik, Tracey; Levallois, Patrick; D'Amour, Monique; Anderson, Todd J; McAlister, Finlay A

2014-07-01

Hypertension is the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but its cause is not always known. Interest is increasing in the potential role of environmental chemicals, including lead. Data are from the first two cycles of the Canadian Health Measures Survey. Lead in whole blood (PbB), and systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were measured and hypertension status was derived for 4,550 respondents aged 40 to 79. Linear regression estimated associations between PbB and SBP and DBP. Logistic regression estimated associations between PbB and hypertension. Adjusted least squares geometric means of PbB were estimated for hypertensive versus non-hypertensive individuals. Compared with non-hypertensive individuals, those with hypertension had higher average PbB levels, were older, more likely to be male, and more likely to have other hypertension risk factors (diabetes, family history of high blood pressure). In adjusted regression models, a modest association emerged between PbB levels and SBP among 40- to 54-year-olds, and between PbB levels and DBP for the overall population. No association emerged between PbB levels and hypertension prevalence. A modest association was observed between blood lead levels and blood pressure, but not with hypertension, in Canadian adults aged 40 to 79.

Estimated Daily Intake and Seasonal Food Sources of Quercetin in Japan

PubMed Central

Nishimuro, Haruno; Ohnishi, Hirofumi; Sato, Midori; Ohnishi-Kameyama, Mayumi; Matsunaga, Izumi; Naito, Shigehiro; Ippoushi, Katsunari; Oike, Hideaki; Nagata, Tadahiro; Akasaka, Hiroshi; Saitoh, Shigeyuki; Shimamoto, Kazuaki; Kobori, Masuko

2015-01-01

Quercetin is a promising food component, which can prevent lifestyle related diseases. To understand the dietary intake of quercetin in the subjects of a population-based cohort study and in the Japanese population, we first determined the quercetin content in foods available in the market during June and July in or near a town in Hokkaido, Japan. Red leaf lettuce, asparagus, and onions contained high amounts of quercetin derivatives. We then estimated the daily quercetin intake by 570 residents aged 20–92 years old in the town using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). The average and median quercetin intakes were 16.2 and 15.5 mg day−1, respectively. The quercetin intakes by men were lower than those by women; the quercetin intakes showed a low correlation with age in both men and women. The estimated quercetin intake was similar during summer and winter. Quercetin was mainly ingested from onions and green tea, both in summer and in winter. Vegetables, such as asparagus, green pepper, tomatoes, and red leaf lettuce, were good sources of quercetin in summer. Our results will help to elucidate the association between quercetin intake and risks of lifestyle-related diseases by further prospective cohort study and establish healthy dietary requirements with the consumption of more physiologically useful components from foods. PMID:25849945

Fitness components and ecological risk of transgenic release: a model using Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes).

PubMed

Muir, W M; Howard, R D

2001-07-01

Any release of transgenic organisms into nature is a concern because ecological relationships between genetically engineered organisms and other organisms (including their wild-type conspecifics) are unknown. To address this concern, we developed a method to evaluate risk in which we input estimates of fitness parameters from a founder population into a recurrence model to predict changes in transgene frequency after a simulated transgenic release. With this method, we grouped various aspects of an organism's life cycle into six net fitness components: juvenile viability, adult viability, age at sexual maturity, female fecundity, male fertility, and mating advantage. We estimated these components for wild-type and transgenic individuals using the fish, Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes). We generalized our model's predictions using various combinations of fitness component values in addition to our experimentally derived estimates. Our model predicted that, for a wide range of parameter values, transgenes could spread in populations despite high juvenile viability costs if transgenes also have sufficiently high positive effects on other fitness components. Sensitivity analyses indicated that transgene effects on age at sexual maturity should have the greatest impact on transgene frequency, followed by juvenile viability, mating advantage, female fecundity, and male fertility, with changes in adult viability, resulting in the least impact.

Derivation and Validation of a Renal Risk Score for People With Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Elley, C. Raina; Robinson, Tom; Moyes, Simon A.; Kenealy, Tim; Collins, John; Robinson, Elizabeth; Orr-Walker, Brandon; Drury, Paul L.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE Diabetes has become the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Renal risk stratification could assist in earlier identification and targeted prevention. This study aimed to derive risk models to predict ESRD events in type 2 diabetes in primary care. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The nationwide derivation cohort included adults with type 2 diabetes from the New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study initially assessed during 2000–2006 and followed until December 2010, excluding those with pre-existing ESRD. The outcome was fatal or nonfatal ESRD event (peritoneal dialysis or hemodialysis for ESRD, renal transplantation, or death from ESRD). Risk models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models, and their performance was assessed in a separate validation cohort. RESULTS The derivation cohort included 25,736 individuals followed for up to 11 years (180,497 person-years; 86% followed for ≥5 years). At baseline, mean age was 62 years, median diabetes duration 5 years, and median HbA1c 7.2% (55 mmol/mol); 37% had albuminuria; and median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 77 mL/min/1.73 m2. There were 637 ESRD events (2.5%) during follow-up. Models that included sex, ethnicity, age, diabetes duration, albuminuria, serum creatinine, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c, smoking status, and previous cardiovascular disease status performed well with good discrimination and calibration in the derivation cohort and the validation cohort (n = 5,877) (C-statistics 0.89–0.92), improving predictive performance compared with previous models. CONCLUSIONS These 5-year renal risk models performed very well in two large primary care populations with type 2 diabetes. More accurate risk stratification could facilitate earlier intervention than using eGFR and/or albuminuria alone. PMID:23801726

Estimation of phase derivatives using discrete chirp-Fourier-transform-based method.

PubMed

Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

2009-08-15

Estimation of phase derivatives is an important task in many interferometric measurements in optical metrology. This Letter introduces a method based on discrete chirp-Fourier transform for accurate and direct estimation of phase derivatives, even in the presence of noise. The method is introduced in the context of the analysis of reconstructed interference fields in digital holographic interferometry. We present simulation and experimental results demonstrating the utility of the proposed method.

Comparison of U.S. Forest Land AreaEstimates From Forest Inventory and Analysis, National Resources Inventory, and Four Satellite Image-Derived Land Cover Data Sets

Treesearch

Mark D. Nelson; Ronald E. McRoberts; Veronica C. Lessard

2005-01-01

Our objective was to test one application of remote sensing technology for complementing forest resource assessments by comparing a variety of existing satellite image-derived land cover maps with national inventory-derived estimates of United States forest land area. National Resources Inventory (NRI) 1997 estimates of non-Federal forest land area differed by 7.5...

Radiocarbon content of lignin-enriched fraction in core sediment from Lake Biwa, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitagawa, Hiroyuki; Lim, Jaesoo; Takemura, Keiji; Hayashida, Akira; Haraguchi, Tsuyoshi

2010-04-01

The transport and deposition of terrestrially derived organic matter (TOM) into lake and ocean is a key but poorly constrained aspect of the modern global carbon cycle. An attempt has been done for estimating a transport time of TOM from the drainage basin of Lake Biwa, the largest lake in Japan. We have determined the 14C contents of the lignin-enriched fraction of the core sediment from the central part of Lake Biwa. The age of lignin-enriched fraction at the deposition time was estimated to be 7.5 × 10 3 years for the last glacial interval. Even in Lake Biwa with more than 100 rivers from the relatively small drainage basin (3850 km 2), TOM was transported at very long time (>10 3 years).

Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine.

PubMed

Povoroznyuk, V V; Grygorieva, N V; Kanis, J A; Ev, McCloskey; Johansson, H; Harvey, N C; Korzh, M O; Strafun, S S; Vaida, V M; Klymovytsky, F V; Vlasenko, R O; Forosenko, V S

2017-12-01

A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk. FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine. The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512). The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture. The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.

Influence of Pattern of Missing Data on Performance of Imputation Methods: An Example Using National Data on Drug Injection in Prisons

PubMed Central

Haji-Maghsoudi, Saiedeh; Haghdoost, Ali-akbar; Rastegari, Azam; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza

2013-01-01

Background: Policy makers need models to be able to detect groups at high risk of HIV infection. Incomplete records and dirty data are frequently seen in national data sets. Presence of missing data challenges the practice of model development. Several studies suggested that performance of imputation methods is acceptable when missing rate is moderate. One of the issues which was of less concern, to be addressed here, is the role of the pattern of missing data. Methods: We used information of 2720 prisoners. Results derived from fitting regression model to whole data were served as gold standard. Missing data were then generated so that 10%, 20% and 50% of data were lost. In scenario 1, we generated missing values, at above rates, in one variable which was significant in gold model (age). In scenario 2, a small proportion of each of independent variable was dropped out. Four imputation methods, under different Event Per Variable (EPV) values, were compared in terms of selection of important variables and parameter estimation. Results: In scenario 2, bias in estimates was low and performances of all methods for handing missing data were similar. All methods at all missing rates were able to detect significance of age. In scenario 1, biases in estimations were increased, in particular at 50% missing rate. Here at EPVs of 10 and 5, imputation methods failed to capture effect of age. Conclusion: In scenario 2, all imputation methods at all missing rates, were able to detect age as being significant. This was not the case in scenario 1. Our results showed that performance of imputation methods depends on the pattern of missing data. PMID:24596839

Normative morphometric data for cerebral cortical areas over the lifetime of the adult human brain.

PubMed

Potvin, Olivier; Dieumegarde, Louis; Duchesne, Simon

2017-08-01

Proper normative data of anatomical measurements of cortical regions, allowing to quantify brain abnormalities, are lacking. We developed norms for regional cortical surface areas, thicknesses, and volumes based on cross-sectional MRI scans from 2713 healthy individuals aged 18 to 94 years using 23 samples provided by 21 independent research groups. The segmentation was conducted using FreeSurfer, a widely used and freely available automated segmentation software. Models predicting regional cortical estimates of each hemisphere were produced using age, sex, estimated total intracranial volume (eTIV), scanner manufacturer, magnetic field strength, and interactions as predictors. The explained variance for the left/right cortex was 76%/76% for surface area, 43%/42% for thickness, and 80%/80% for volume. The mean explained variance for all regions was 41% for surface areas, 27% for thicknesses, and 46% for volumes. Age, sex and eTIV predicted most of the explained variance for surface areas and volumes while age was the main predictors for thicknesses. Scanner characteristics generally predicted a limited amount of variance, but this effect was stronger for thicknesses than surface areas and volumes. For new individuals, estimates of their expected surface area, thickness and volume based on their characteristics and the scanner characteristics can be obtained using the derived formulas, as well as Z score effect sizes denoting the extent of the deviation from the normative sample. Models predicting normative values were validated in independent samples of healthy adults, showing satisfactory validation R 2 . Deviations from the normative sample were measured in individuals with mild Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia and expected patterns of deviations were observed. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Molecular Clock Infers Heterogeneous Tissue Age Among Patients with Barrett’s Esophagus

PubMed Central

Wong, Chao-Jen; Hazelton, William D.; Kaz, Andrew M.; Willis, Joseph E.; Grady, William M.; Luebeck, E. Georg

2016-01-01

Biomarkers that drift differentially with age between normal and premalignant tissues, such as Barrett’s esophagus (BE), have the potential to improve the assessment of a patient’s cancer risk by providing quantitative information about how long a patient has lived with the precursor (i.e., dwell time). In the case of BE, which is a metaplastic precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), such biomarkers would be particularly useful because EAC risk may change with BE dwell time and it is generally not known how long a patient has lived with BE when a patient is first diagnosed with this condition. In this study we first describe a statistical analysis of DNA methylation data (both cross-sectional and longitudinal) derived from tissue samples from 50 BE patients to identify and validate a set of 67 CpG dinucleotides in 51 CpG islands that undergo age-related methylomic drift. Next, we describe how this information can be used to estimate a patient’s BE dwell time. We introduce a Bayesian model that incorporates longitudinal methylomic drift rates, patient age, and methylation data from individually paired BE and normal squamous tissue samples to estimate patient-specific BE onset times. Our application of the model to 30 sporadic BE patients’ methylomic profiles first exposes a wide heterogeneity in patient-specific BE onset times. Furthermore, independent application of this method to a cohort of 22 familial BE (FBE) patients reveals significantly earlier mean BE onset times. Our analysis supports the conjecture that differential methylomic drift occurs in BE (relative to normal squamous tissue) and hence allows quantitative estimation of the time that a BE patient has lived with BE. PMID:27168458

Cross-sectional study of ethnic differences in physical fitness among children of South Asian, black African–Caribbean and white European origin: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

PubMed Central

Nightingale, C M; Donin, A S; Kerry, S R; Owen, C G; Rudnicka, A R; Brage, S; Westgate, K L; Ekelund, U; Cook, D G; Whincup, P H

2016-01-01

Objective Little is known about levels of physical fitness in children from different ethnic groups in the UK. We therefore studied physical fitness in UK children (aged 9–10 years) of South Asian, black African–Caribbean and white European origin. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Primary schools in the UK. Participants 1625 children (aged 9–10 years) of South Asian, black African–Caribbean and white European origin in the UK studied between 2006 and 2007. Outcome measures A step test assessed submaximal physical fitness from which estimated VO2 max was derived. Ethnic differences in estimated VO2 max were estimated using multilevel linear regression allowing for clustering at school level and adjusting for age, sex and month as fixed effects. Results The study response rate was 63%. In adjusted analyses, boys had higher levels of estimated VO2 max than girls (mean difference 3.06 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.47, p<0.0001). Levels of estimated VO2 max were lower in South Asians than those in white Europeans (mean difference −0.79 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI −1.41 to −0.18, p=0.01); levels of estimated VO2 max in black African–Caribbeans were higher than those in white Europeans (mean difference 0.60 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 0.02 to 1.17, p=0.04); these patterns were similar in boys and girls. The lower estimated VO2 max in South Asians, compared to white Europeans, was consistent among Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi children and was attenuated by 78% after adjustment for objectively measured physical activity (average daily steps). Conclusions South Asian children have lower levels of physical fitness than white Europeans and black African–Caribbeans in the UK. This ethnic difference in physical fitness is at least partly explained by ethnic differences in physical activity. PMID:27324713

Cross-sectional study of ethnic differences in physical fitness among children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

PubMed

Nightingale, C M; Donin, A S; Kerry, S R; Owen, C G; Rudnicka, A R; Brage, S; Westgate, K L; Ekelund, U; Cook, D G; Whincup, P H

2016-06-20

Little is known about levels of physical fitness in children from different ethnic groups in the UK. We therefore studied physical fitness in UK children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. Cross-sectional study. Primary schools in the UK. 1625 children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin in the UK studied between 2006 and 2007. A step test assessed submaximal physical fitness from which estimated VO2 max was derived. Ethnic differences in estimated VO2 max were estimated using multilevel linear regression allowing for clustering at school level and adjusting for age, sex and month as fixed effects. The study response rate was 63%. In adjusted analyses, boys had higher levels of estimated VO2 max than girls (mean difference 3.06 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.47, p<0.0001). Levels of estimated VO2 max were lower in South Asians than those in white Europeans (mean difference -0.79 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI -1.41 to -0.18, p=0.01); levels of estimated VO2 max in black African-Caribbeans were higher than those in white Europeans (mean difference 0.60 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 0.02 to 1.17, p=0.04); these patterns were similar in boys and girls. The lower estimated VO2 max in South Asians, compared to white Europeans, was consistent among Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi children and was attenuated by 78% after adjustment for objectively measured physical activity (average daily steps). South Asian children have lower levels of physical fitness than white Europeans and black African-Caribbeans in the UK. This ethnic difference in physical fitness is at least partly explained by ethnic differences in physical activity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/