The juvenile face as a suitable age indicator in child pornography cases: a pilot study on the reliability of automated and visual estimation approaches.

PubMed

Ratnayake, M; Obertová, Z; Dose, M; Gabriel, P; Bröker, H M; Brauckmann, M; Barkus, A; Rizgeliene, R; Tutkuviene, J; Ritz-Timme, S; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cattaneo, C

2014-09-01

In cases of suspected child pornography, the age of the victim represents a crucial factor for legal prosecution. The conventional methods for age estimation provide unreliable age estimates, particularly if teenage victims are concerned. In this pilot study, the potential of age estimation for screening purposes is explored for juvenile faces. In addition to a visual approach, an automated procedure is introduced, which has the ability to rapidly scan through large numbers of suspicious image data in order to trace juvenile faces. Age estimations were performed by experts, non-experts and the Demonstrator of a developed software on frontal facial images of 50 females aged 10-19 years from Germany, Italy, and Lithuania. To test the accuracy, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the estimates and the real ages was calculated for each examiner and the Demonstrator. The Demonstrator achieved the lowest MAE (1.47 years) for the 50 test images. Decreased image quality had no significant impact on the performance and classification results. The experts delivered slightly less accurate MAE (1.63 years). Throughout the tested age range, both the manual and the automated approach led to reliable age estimates within the limits of natural biological variability. The visual analysis of the face produces reasonably accurate age estimates up to the age of 18 years, which is the legally relevant age threshold for victims in cases of pedo-pornography. This approach can be applied in conjunction with the conventional methods for a preliminary age estimation of juveniles depicted on images.

Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

2012-11-30

Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

Combining facial dynamics with appearance for age estimation.

PubMed

Dibeklioglu, Hamdi; Alnajar, Fares; Ali Salah, Albert; Gevers, Theo

2015-06-01

Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We propose a method to extract and use dynamic features for age estimation, using a person's smile. Our approach is tested on a large, gender-balanced database with 400 subjects, with an age range between 8 and 76. In addition, we introduce a new database on posed disgust expressions with 324 subjects in the same age range, and evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach when used with another expression. State-of-the-art appearance-based age estimation methods from the literature are implemented as baseline. We demonstrate that for each of these methods, the addition of the proposed dynamic features results in statistically significant improvement. We further propose a novel hierarchical age estimation architecture based on adaptive age grouping. We test our approach extensively, including an exploration of spontaneous versus posed smile dynamics, and gender-specific age estimation. We show that using spontaneity information reduces the mean absolute error by up to 21%, advancing the state of the art for facial age estimation.

Recognizing Age-Separated Face Images: Humans and Machines

PubMed Central

Yadav, Daksha; Singh, Richa; Vatsa, Mayank; Noore, Afzel

2014-01-01

Humans utilize facial appearance, gender, expression, aging pattern, and other ancillary information to recognize individuals. It is interesting to observe how humans perceive facial age. Analyzing these properties can help in understanding the phenomenon of facial aging and incorporating the findings can help in designing effective algorithms. Such a study has two components - facial age estimation and age-separated face recognition. Age estimation involves predicting the age of an individual given his/her facial image. On the other hand, age-separated face recognition consists of recognizing an individual given his/her age-separated images. In this research, we investigate which facial cues are utilized by humans for estimating the age of people belonging to various age groups along with analyzing the effect of one's gender, age, and ethnicity on age estimation skills. We also analyze how various facial regions such as binocular and mouth regions influence age estimation and recognition capabilities. Finally, we propose an age-invariant face recognition algorithm that incorporates the knowledge learned from these observations. Key observations of our research are: (1) the age group of newborns and toddlers is easiest to estimate, (2) gender and ethnicity do not affect the judgment of age group estimation, (3) face as a global feature, is essential to achieve good performance in age-separated face recognition, and (4) the proposed algorithm yields improved recognition performance compared to existing algorithms and also outperforms a commercial system in the young image as probe scenario. PMID:25474200

Recognizing age-separated face images: humans and machines.

PubMed

Yadav, Daksha; Singh, Richa; Vatsa, Mayank; Noore, Afzel

2014-01-01

Humans utilize facial appearance, gender, expression, aging pattern, and other ancillary information to recognize individuals. It is interesting to observe how humans perceive facial age. Analyzing these properties can help in understanding the phenomenon of facial aging and incorporating the findings can help in designing effective algorithms. Such a study has two components--facial age estimation and age-separated face recognition. Age estimation involves predicting the age of an individual given his/her facial image. On the other hand, age-separated face recognition consists of recognizing an individual given his/her age-separated images. In this research, we investigate which facial cues are utilized by humans for estimating the age of people belonging to various age groups along with analyzing the effect of one's gender, age, and ethnicity on age estimation skills. We also analyze how various facial regions such as binocular and mouth regions influence age estimation and recognition capabilities. Finally, we propose an age-invariant face recognition algorithm that incorporates the knowledge learned from these observations. Key observations of our research are: (1) the age group of newborns and toddlers is easiest to estimate, (2) gender and ethnicity do not affect the judgment of age group estimation, (3) face as a global feature, is essential to achieve good performance in age-separated face recognition, and (4) the proposed algorithm yields improved recognition performance compared to existing algorithms and also outperforms a commercial system in the young image as probe scenario.

Validity of gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and neonatal examination compared to ultrasound in Vietnam.

PubMed

Deputy, Nicholas P; Nguyen, Phuong H; Pham, Hoa; Nguyen, Son; Neufeld, Lynnette; Martorell, Reynaldo; Ramakrishnan, Usha

2017-01-11

Accurate estimation of gestational age is important for both clinical and public health purposes. Estimates of gestational age using fetal ultrasound measurements are considered most accurate but are frequently unavailable in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of last menstrual period and Farr neonatal examination estimates of gestational age, compared to ultrasound estimates, in a large cohort of women in Vietnam. Data for this analysis come from a randomized, placebo-controlled micronutrient supplementation trial in Vietnam. We analyzed 912 women with ultrasound and prospectively-collected last menstrual period estimates of gestational age and 685 women with ultrasound and Farr estimates of gestational age. We used the Wilcoxon signed rank sum test to assess differences in gestational age estimated by last menstrual period or Farr examination compared to ultrasound and computed the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to quantify agreement between methods. We computed the Kappa coefficient (κ) to quantify agreement in preterm, term and post-term classification. The median gestational age estimated by ultrasound was 273.9 days. Gestational age was slightly overestimated by last menstrual period (median 276.0 days, P < 0.001) and more greatly overestimated by Farr examination (median 286.7 days, P < 0.001). Gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and ultrasound were moderately correlated (ICC = 0.78) and concordant (CCC = 0.63), whereas gestational age estimates by Farr examination and ultrasound were weakly correlated (ICC = 0.26) and concordant (CCC = 0.05). Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age were within ± 14 days for 88.4% of women; Farr and ultrasound estimates were within ± 14 days for 55.8% of women. Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age had higher agreement in term classification (κ = 0.41) than Farr and ultrasound (κ = 0.05). In this study of women in Vietnam, we found last menstrual period provided a more accurate estimate of gestational age than the Farr examination when compared to ultrasound. These findings provide useful information about the utility and accuracy of different methods to estimate gestational age and suggest last menstrual period may be preferred over Farr examination in settings where ultrasound is unavailable. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.Gov as NCT01665378 on August 13, 2012.

Precision of four otolith techniques for estimating age of white perch from a thermally altered reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snow, Richard A.; Porta, Michael J.; Long, James M.

2018-01-01

The White Perch Morone americana is an invasive species in many Midwestern states and is widely distributed in reservoir systems, yet little is known about the species' age structure and population dynamics. White Perch were first observed in Sooner Reservoir, a thermally altered cooling reservoir in Oklahoma, by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation in 2006. It is unknown how thermally altered systems like Sooner Reservoir may affect the precision of White Perch age estimates. Previous studies have found that age structures from Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and Bluegills Lepomis macrochirus from thermally altered reservoirs had false annuli, which increased error when estimating ages. Our objective was to quantify the precision of White Perch age estimates using four sagittal otolith preparation techniques (whole, broken, browned, and stained). Because Sooner Reservoir is thermally altered, we also wanted to identify the best month to collect a White Perch age sample based on aging precision. Ages of 569 White Perch (20–308 mm TL) were estimated using the four techniques. Age estimates from broken, stained, and browned otoliths ranged from 0 to 8 years; whole‐view otolith age estimates ranged from 0 to 7 years. The lowest mean coefficient of variation (CV) was obtained using broken otoliths, whereas the highest CV was observed using browned otoliths. July was the most precise month (lowest mean CV) for estimating age of White Perch, whereas April was the least precise month (highest mean CV). These results underscore the importance of knowing the best method to prepare otoliths for achieving the most precise age estimates and the best time of year to obtain those samples, as these factors may affect other estimates of population dynamics.

Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

PubMed Central

Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

2015-01-01

Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

What automated age estimation of hand and wrist MRI data tells us about skeletal maturation in male adolescents.

PubMed

Urschler, Martin; Grassegger, Sabine; Štern, Darko

2015-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is important in human biology and has various medical and forensic applications. Recent interest in MR-based methods aims to investigate alternatives for established methods involving ionising radiation. Automatic, software-based methods additionally promise improved estimation objectivity. To investigate how informative automatically selected image features are regarding their ability to discriminate age, by exploring a recently proposed software-based age estimation method for MR images of the left hand and wrist. One hundred and two MR datasets of left hand images are used to evaluate age estimation performance, consisting of bone and epiphyseal gap volume localisation, computation of one age regression model per bone mapping image features to age and fusion of individual bone age predictions to a final age estimate. Quantitative results of the software-based method show an age estimation performance with a mean absolute difference of 0.85 years (SD = 0.58 years) to chronological age, as determined by a cross-validation experiment. Qualitatively, it is demonstrated how feature selection works and which image features of skeletal maturation are automatically chosen to model the non-linear regression function. Feasibility of automatic age estimation based on MRI data is shown and selected image features are found to be informative for describing anatomical changes during physical maturation in male adolescents.

Age, year‐class strength variability, and partial age validation of Kiyis from Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepak, Taylor A.; Ogle, Derek H.; Vinson, Mark

2017-01-01

ge estimates of Lake Superior Kiyis Coregonus kiyi from scales and otoliths were compared and 12 years (2003–2014) of length frequency data were examined to assess year‐class strength and validate age estimates. Ages estimated from otoliths were precise and were consistently older than ages estimated from scales. Maximum otolith‐derived ages were 20 years for females and 12 years for males. Age estimates showed high numbers of fish of ages 5, 6, and 11 in 2014, corresponding to the 2009, 2008, and 2003 year‐classes, respectively. Strong 2003 and 2009 year‐classes, along with the 2005 year‐class, were also evident based on distinct modes of age‐1 fish (<110 mm) in the length frequency distributions from 2004, 2010, and 2006, respectively. Modes from these year‐classes were present as progressively larger fish in subsequent years. Few to no age‐1 fish (<110 mm) were present in all other years. Ages estimated from otoliths were generally within 1 year of the ages corresponding to strong year‐classes, at least for age‐5 and older fish, suggesting that Kiyi age may be reliably estimated to within 1 year by careful examination of thin‐sectioned otoliths.

Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

PubMed

Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

2015-12-01

A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

PubMed

Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-05-08

We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

[Forensic age determination in living individuals at the Institute of Legal Medicine in Berlin (Charité): analysis of the expert reports from 2001 to 2007].

PubMed

Schmidt, Sven; Knüfermann, Raidun; Tsokos, Michael; Schmeling, Andreas

2009-01-01

The analysis included the age reports provided by the Institute of Legal Medicine in Berlin (Charité) in the period from 2001 to 2007. A total of 416 age estimations were carried out, 289 in criminal and 127 in civil proceedings. 357 of the examined individuals were male, 59 were female. The vast majority of the individuals came from Vietnam. In 112 cases, there were no deviations between the indicated age and the estimated minimum age, while the actual age of the individuals was partly clearly above the estimated age. In 300 cases, there were discrepancies of up to 11 years between the indicated age and the estimated age. The study demonstrates that forensic age estimation in living individuals can make an important contribution to legal certainty.

Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

PubMed

Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

2016-01-01

Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

Estimating ages of Utah chubs by use of pectoral fin rays, otoliths, and scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Kayla M; Beard, Zachary S.; Flinders, John M.; Quist, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Utah chub Gila atraria is native to the Upper Snake River system in Wyoming and Idaho and to the Lake Bonneville Basin in Utah and southeastern Idaho. However, the Utah chub has been introduced into many other waterbodies in the western United States, where it competes with ecologically and economically important species. The objectives of this study were to evaluate between-reader precision and reader confidence in age estimates obtained from pectoral fin rays, lapilli (otoliths), asterisci (otoliths), and scales for Utah chubs collected from Henrys Lake, Idaho. Lapilli have been previously shown to provide accurate age estimates for Utah chubs; therefore, we sought to compare age estimates from fin rays, asterisci, and scales to those from lapilli. The between-reader coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and the percent of exact reader agreement (PA-0) was highest for pectoral fin rays (CV = 4.7, PA-0 = 74%), followed by scales (CV = 10.3, PA-0 = 52.3%), lapilli (CV = 11.6, PA-0 = 48.2%), and asterisci (CV = 13.0, PA-0 = 41.7%). Consensus age estimates from pectoral fin rays showed high concordance with consensus age estimates from lapilli. Our results indicate that pectoral fin rays provide the most precise age estimates for Utah chub. Pectoral fin rays are easily collected and processed and also provide age estimates without requiring fish sacrifice.

Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

Consequences of Secondary Calibrations on Divergence Time Estimates.

PubMed

Schenk, John J

2016-01-01

Secondary calibrations (calibrations based on the results of previous molecular dating studies) are commonly applied in divergence time analyses in groups that lack fossil data; however, the consequences of applying secondary calibrations in a relaxed-clock approach are not fully understood. I tested whether applying the posterior estimate from a primary study as a prior distribution in a secondary study results in consistent age and uncertainty estimates. I compared age estimates from simulations with 100 randomly replicated secondary trees. On average, the 95% credible intervals of node ages for secondary estimates were significantly younger and narrower than primary estimates. The primary and secondary age estimates were significantly different in 97% of the replicates after Bonferroni corrections. Greater error in magnitude was associated with deeper than shallower nodes, but the opposite was found when standardized by median node age, and a significant positive relationship was determined between the number of tips/age of secondary trees and the total amount of error. When two secondary calibrated nodes were analyzed, estimates remained significantly different, and although the minimum and median estimates were associated with less error, maximum age estimates and credible interval widths had greater error. The shape of the prior also influenced error, in which applying a normal, rather than uniform, prior distribution resulted in greater error. Secondary calibrations, in summary, lead to a false impression of precision and the distribution of age estimates shift away from those that would be inferred by the primary analysis. These results suggest that secondary calibrations should not be applied as the only source of calibration in divergence time analyses that test time-dependent hypotheses until the additional error associated with secondary calibrations is more properly modeled to take into account increased uncertainty in age estimates.

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

PubMed Central

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-01-01

Purpose This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. PMID:27051633

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

PubMed

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-03-01

This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl

2014-01-01

We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-classmore » SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.« less

Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

2015-01-01

Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

2009-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

PubMed

Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

2016-07-01

Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

PubMed

De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

2015-09-01

Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity.

An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan, Honduras.

PubMed

Storey, Rebecca

2007-01-01

Comparison of different adult age estimation methods on the same skeletal sample with unknown ages could forward paleodemographic inference, while researchers sort out various controversies. The original aging method for the auricular surface (Lovejoy et al., 1985a) assigned an age estimation based on several separate characteristics. Researchers have found this original method hard to apply. It is usually forgotten that before assigning an age, there was a seriation, an ordering of all available individuals from youngest to oldest. Thus, age estimation reflected the place of an individual within its sample. A recent article (Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002) proposed a revised method that scores theses various characteristics into age stages, which can then be used with a Bayesian method to estimate an adult age distribution for the sample. Both methods were applied to the adult auricular surfaces of a Pre-Columbian Maya skeletal population from Copan, Honduras and resulted in age distributions with significant numbers of older adults. However, contrary to the usual paleodemographic distribution, one Bayesian estimation based on uniform prior probabilities yielded a population with 57% of the ages at death over 65, while another based on a high mortality life table still had 12% of the individuals aged over 75 years. The seriation method yielded an age distribution more similar to that known from preindustrial historical situations, without excessive longevity of adults. Paleodemography must still wrestle with its elusive goal of accurate adult age estimation from skeletons, a necessary base for demographic study of past populations. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc

A holistic approach to age estimation in refugee children.

PubMed

Sypek, Scott A; Benson, Jill; Spanner, Kate A; Williams, Jan L

2016-06-01

Many refugee children arriving in Australia have an inaccurately documented date of birth (DOB). A medical assessment of a child's age is often requested when there is a concern that their documented DOB is incorrect. This study's aim was to assess the accuracy a holistic age assessment tool (AAT) in estimating the age of refugee children newly settled in Australia. A holistic AAT that combines medical and non-medical approaches was used to estimate the ages of 60 refugee children with a known DOB. The tool used four components to assess age: an oral narrative, developmental assessment, anthropometric measures and pubertal assessment. Assessors were blinded to the true age of the child. Correlation coefficients for the actual and estimated age were calculated for the tool overall and individual components. The correlation coefficient between the actual and estimated age from the AAT was very strong at 0.9802 (boys 0.9748, girls 0.9876). The oral narrative component of the tool performed best (R = 0.9603). Overall, 86.7% of age estimates were within 1 year of the true age. The range of differences was -1.43 to 3.92 years with a standard deviation of 0.77 years (9.24 months). The AAT is a holistic, simple and safe instrument that can be used to estimate age in refugee children with results comparable with radiological methods currently used. © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Recollection, not familiarity, decreases in healthy aging: Converging evidence from four estimation methods

PubMed Central

Koen, Joshua D.; Yonelinas, Andrew P.

2014-01-01

Although it is generally accepted that aging is associated with recollection impairments, there is considerable disagreement surrounding how healthy aging influences familiarity-based recognition. One factor that might contribute to the mixed findings regarding age differences in familiarity is the estimation method used to quantify the two mnemonic processes. Here, this issue is examined by having a group of older adults (N = 39) between 40 and 81 years of age complete Remember/Know (RK), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and process dissociation (PD) recognition tests. Estimates of recollection, but not familiarity, showed a significant negative correlation with chronological age. Inconsistent with previous findings, the estimation method did not moderate the relationship between age and estimations of recollection and familiarity. In a final analysis, recollection and familiarity were estimated as latent factors in a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) that modeled the covariance between measures of free recall and recognition, and the results converged with the results from the RK, PD, and ROC tasks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that episodic memory declines in older adults are primary driven by recollection deficits, and also suggest that the estimation method plays little to no role in age-related decreases in familiarity. PMID:25485974

A comparison of average wages with age-specific wages for assessing indirect productivity losses: analytic simplicity versus analytic precision.

PubMed

Connolly, Mark P; Tashjian, Cole; Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Bhatt, Aomesh; Postma, Maarten J

2017-07-01

Numerous approaches are used to estimate indirect productivity losses using various wage estimates applied to poor health in working aged adults. Considering the different wage estimation approaches observed in the published literature, we sought to assess variation in productivity loss estimates when using average wages compared with age-specific wages. Published estimates for average and age-specific wages for combined male/female wages were obtained from the UK Office of National Statistics. A polynomial interpolation was used to convert 5-year age-banded wage data into annual age-specific wages estimates. To compare indirect cost estimates, average wages and age-specific wages were used to project productivity losses at various stages of life based on the human capital approach. Discount rates of 0, 3, and 6 % were applied to projected age-specific and average wage losses. Using average wages was found to overestimate lifetime wages in conditions afflicting those aged 1-27 and 57-67, while underestimating lifetime wages in those aged 27-57. The difference was most significant for children where average wage overestimated wages by 15 % and for 40-year-olds where it underestimated wages by 14 %. Large differences in projecting productivity losses exist when using the average wage applied over a lifetime. Specifically, use of average wages overestimates productivity losses between 8 and 15 % for childhood illnesses. Furthermore, during prime working years, use of average wages will underestimate productivity losses by 14 %. We suggest that to achieve more precise estimates of productivity losses, age-specific wages should become the standard analytic approach.

The French-Canadian data set of Demirjian for dental age estimation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

2013-07-01

Estimation of age of an individual can be performed by evaluating the pattern of dental development. A dataset for age estimation based on the dental maturity of a French-Canadian population was published over 35 years ago and has become the most widely accepted dataset. The applicability of this dataset has been tested on different population groups. To estimate the observed differences between Chronological age (CA) and Dental age (DA) when the French Canadian dataset was used to estimate the age of different population groups. A systematic search of literature for papers utilizing the French Canadian dataset for age estimation was performed. All language articles from PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were electronically searched for terms 'Demirjian' and 'Dental age' published between January 1973 and December 2011. A hand search of articles was also conducted. A total of 274 studies were identified from which 34 studies were included for qualitative analysis and 12 studies were included for quantitative assessment and meta-analysis. When synthesizing the estimation results from different population groups, on average, the Demirjian dataset overestimated the age of females by 0.65 years (-0.10 years to +2.82 years) and males by 0.60 years (-0.23 years to +3.04 years). The French Canadian dataset overestimates the age of the subjects by more than six months and hence this dataset should be used only with considerable caution when estimating age of group of subjects of any global population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Comparison of two viewing methods for estimating largemouth bass and walleye ages from sectioned otoliths and dorsal spines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wegleitner, Eric J.; Isermann, Daniel A.

2017-01-01

Many biologists use digital images for estimating ages of fish, but the use of images could lead to differences in age estimates and precision because image capture can produce changes in light and clarity compared to directly viewing structures through a microscope. We used sectioned sagittal otoliths from 132 Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and sectioned dorsal spines and otoliths from 157 Walleyes Sander vitreus to determine whether age estimates and among‐reader precision were similar when annuli were enumerated directly through a microscope or from digital images. Agreement of ages between viewing methods for three readers were highest for Largemouth Bass otoliths (75–89% among readers), followed by Walleye otoliths (63–70%) and Walleye dorsal spines (47–64%). Most discrepancies (72–96%) were ±1 year, and differences were more prevalent for age‐5 and older fish. With few exceptions, mean ages estimated from digital images were similar to ages estimated via directly viewing the structures through the microscope, and among‐reader precision did not vary between viewing methods for each structure. However, the number of disagreements we observed suggests that biologists should assess potential differences in age structure that could arise if images of calcified structures are used in the age estimation process.

Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

1997-01-01

We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

Age estimation by amino acid racemization in human teeth.

PubMed

Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu

2010-11-01

When an unidentified body is found, it is essential to establish the personal identity of the body in addition to investigating the cause of death. Identification is one of the most important functions of forensic dentistry. Fingerprint, dental, and DNA analysis can be used to accurately identify a body. However, if no information is available for identification, age estimation can contribute to the resolution of a case. The authors have been using aspartic acid racemization rates in dentin (D-aspartic acid/L-aspartic acid: D/L Asp) as an index for age estimation and have obtained satisfactory results. We report five cases of age estimation using the racemization method. In all five cases, estimated ages were accurate within a range ±3 years. We conclude that the racemization method is a reliable and practical method for estimating age. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Dental cementum in age estimation: a polarized light and stereomicroscopic study.

PubMed

Kasetty, Sowmya; Rammanohar, M; Raju Ragavendra, T

2010-05-01

Dental hard tissues are good candidates for age estimation as they are less destructive and procedures to determine age can be easily performed. Although cementum annulations and cementum thickness are important parameters in this regard, they are seldom used. This study was undertaken to review the methods, difficulties in execution of techniques, and accuracy of cementum thickness and annulations in estimating the age. Unstained and stained ground sections of tooth were used to measure cemental thickness and count cemental annulations based on which age was estimated and was compared with known age. Although there was positive relation between cemental thickness and annulations with age, only in 1-1.5% of cases, age could be predicted with accuracy.

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas

PubMed Central

Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

PubMed

White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

Facial Asymmetry-Based Age Group Estimation: Role in Recognizing Age-Separated Face Images.

PubMed

Sajid, Muhammad; Taj, Imtiaz Ahmad; Bajwa, Usama Ijaz; Ratyal, Naeem Iqbal

2018-04-23

Face recognition aims to establish the identity of a person based on facial characteristics. On the other hand, age group estimation is the automatic calculation of an individual's age range based on facial features. Recognizing age-separated face images is still a challenging research problem due to complex aging processes involving different types of facial tissues, skin, fat, muscles, and bones. Certain holistic and local facial features are used to recognize age-separated face images. However, most of the existing methods recognize face images without incorporating the knowledge learned from age group estimation. In this paper, we propose an age-assisted face recognition approach to handle aging variations. Inspired by the observation that facial asymmetry is an age-dependent intrinsic facial feature, we first use asymmetric facial dimensions to estimate the age group of a given face image. Deeply learned asymmetric facial features are then extracted for face recognition using a deep convolutional neural network (dCNN). Finally, we integrate the knowledge learned from the age group estimation into the face recognition algorithm using the same dCNN. This integration results in a significant improvement in the overall performance compared to using the face recognition algorithm alone. The experimental results on two large facial aging datasets, the MORPH and FERET sets, show that the proposed age group estimation based on the face recognition approach yields superior performance compared to some existing state-of-the-art methods. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Menstrual versus clinical estimate of gestational age dating in the United States: temporal trends and variability in indices of perinatal outcomes.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V

2007-09-01

Accurate estimation of gestational age early in pregnancy is paramount for obstetric care decisions and for determining fetal growth and other conditions that may necessitate timing the iatrogenic intervention or delivery. We sought to examine temporal changes in the distributions of two measures of gestational age, namely, those based on menstrual dating and a clinical estimate. We further sought to evaluate relative comparisons and variability in indices of perinatal outcomes. We utilised the Natality data files in the US, 1990-2002 comprising women that delivered a singleton livebirth between 22 and 44 weeks gestation (n = 42 689 603). Changes were shown in the distributions of gestational age based on menstrual vs. clinical estimate between 1990 and 2002, as well as changes in the proportions of preterm (<37, <32 and <28 weeks) and post-term (>or=42 weeks) birth, and small- (SGA; <10th percentile) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA; birthweight >90th percentile) births. While the absolute rates of preterm birth <37 weeks, SGA and LGA births were lower based on the clinical estimate of gestational age relative to that based on menstrual dating, the increases in preterm birth rate between 1990 and 2002 were fairly similar between the two measures of gestational dating. However, the decline in post-term births was larger, based on the clinical estimate (-73.8%), than on the menstrual estimate (-36.6%) between 1990 and 2002. While the clinical estimate of gestational age appears to provide a reasonably good approximation to the menstrual estimate, disregarding the clinical estimate of gestational age may ignore the advantages of gestational age assessment in modern obstetrics.

Comparison of the precision of age estimates generated from fin rays, scales, and otoliths of Blue Sucker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Acre, Matthew R.; Alejandrez, Celeste; East, Jessica; Massure, Wade A.; Miyazono, S.; Pease, Jessica E.; Roesler, Elizabeth L.; Williams, H.M.; Grabowski, Timothy B.

2017-01-01

Evaluating the precision of age estimates generated by different readers and different calcified structures is an important part of generating reliable estimations of growth, recruitment, and mortality for fish populations. Understanding the potential loss of precision associated with using structures harvested without sacrificing individuals, such as scales or fin rays, is particularly important when working with imperiled species, such as Cycleptus elongatus (Blue Sucker). We collected otoliths (lapilli), scales, and the first fin rays of the dorsal, anal, pelvic, and pectoral fins of 9 Blue Suckers. We generated age estimates from each structure by both experienced (n = 5) and novice (n = 4) readers. We found that, independent of the structure used to generate the age estimates, the mean coefficient of variation (CV) of experienced readers was approximately 29% lower than that of novice readers. Further, the mean CV of age estimates generated from pectoral-fin rays, pelvic-fin rays, and scales were statistically indistinguishable and less than those of dorsal-fin rays, anal-fin rays, and otoliths. Anal-, dorsal-, and pelvic-fin rays and scales underestimated age compared to otoliths, but age estimates from pectoral-fin rays were comparable to those from otoliths. Skill level, structure, and fish total-length influenced reader precision between subsequent reads of the same aging structure from a particular fish. Using structures that can be harvested non-lethally to estimate the age of Blue Sucker can provide reliable and reproducible results, similar to those that would be expected from using otoliths. Therefore, we recommend the use of pectoral-fin rays as a non-lethal method to obtain age estimates for Blue Suckers.

Comparison of gyrochronological and isochronal age estimates for transiting exoplanet host stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxted, P. F. L.; Serenelli, A. M.; Southworth, J.

2015-05-01

Context. Tidal interactions between planets and their host stars are not well understood, but may be an important factor in their formation, structure, and evolution. Previous studies suggest that these tidal interactions may be responsible for discrepancies between the ages of exoplanet host stars estimated using stellar models (isochronal age estimates) and age estimates based on the stars' rotation periods (gyrochronological age estimates). Recent improvements in our understanding of the rotational evolution of single stars and a substantial increase in the number of exoplanet host stars with accurate rotation period measurements make it worthwhile to revisit this question. Aims: Our aim is to determine whether the gyrochronological age estimates for transiting exoplanet host stars with accurate rotation period measurements are consistent with their isochronal age estimates, and whether this is indicative of tidal interaction between the planets and their host stars. Methods: We have compiled a sample of 28 transiting exoplanet host stars with measured rotation periods, including two stars (HAT-P-21 and WASP-5) for which the rotation period based on the light curve modulation is reported here for the first time. We use our recently developed Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the joint posterior distribution for the mass and age of each star in the sample. We extend our Bayesian method to include a calculation of the posterior distribution of the gyrochronological age estimate that accounts for the uncertainties in the mass and age, the strong correlation between these values, and the uncertainties in the mass-rotation-age calibration. Results: The gyrochronological age estimate (τgyro) is significantly lower than the isochronal age estimate for about half of the stars in our sample. Tidal interactions between the star and planet are a reasonable explanation for this discrepancy in some cases, but not all. The distribution of τgyro values is evenly spread from very young ages up to a maximum value of a few Gyr, i.e. there is no obvious pile-up of stars at very low or very high values of τgyro as might be expected if some evolutionary or selection effect were biasing the age distribution of the stars in this sample. There is no clear correlation between τgyro and the strength of the tidal force on the star due to the innermost planet. There is clear evidence that the isochronal age estimates for some K-type stars are too high, and this may also be the case for some G-type stars. This may be the result of magnetic inhibition of convection. The densities of HAT-P-11 and WASP-84 are too high to be reproduced by any stellar models within the observed constraints on effective temperature and metallicity. These stars may have strongly enhanced helium abundances. There is currently no satisfactory explanation for the discrepancy between the young age for CoRoT-2 estimated from either gyrochronology or its high lithium abundance, and the extremely old age for its K-type stellar companion inferred from its very low X-ray flux. Conclusions: There is now strong evidence that the gyrochronological age estimates for some transiting exoplanet host stars are significantly lower than the isochronal age estimates, but it is not always clear that this is good evidence for tidal interactions between the star and the planet.

Usefulness of telomere length in DNA from human teeth for age estimation.

PubMed

Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; González-Herrera, Lucas; Valenzuela, Aurora

2018-03-01

Age estimation is widely used to identify individuals in forensic medicine. However, the accuracy of the most commonly used procedures is markedly reduced in adulthood, and these methods cannot be applied in practice when morphological information is limited. Molecular methods for age estimation have been extensively developed in the last few years. The fact that telomeres shorten at each round of cell division has led to the hypothesis that telomere length can be used as a tool to predict age. The present study thus aimed to assess the correlation between telomere length measured in dental DNA and age, and the effect of sex and tooth type on telomere length; a further aim was to propose a statistical regression model to estimate the biological age based on telomere length. DNA was extracted from 91 tooth samples belonging to 77 individuals of both sexes and 15 to 85 years old and was used to determine telomere length by quantitative real-time PCR. Our results suggested that telomere length was not affected by sex and was greater in molar teeth. We found a significant correlation between age and telomere length measured in DNA from teeth. However, the equation proposed to predict age was not accurate enough for forensic age estimation on its own. Age estimation based on telomere length in DNA from tooth samples may be useful as a complementary method which provides an approximate estimate of age, especially when human skeletal remains are the only forensic sample available.

Development of a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation (DAE) and testing of this with a separate Validation Set (VS) in a southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

2016-10-01

Many countries have recently experienced a rapid increase in the demand for forensic age estimates of unaccompanied minors. Hong Kong is a major tourist and business center where there has been an increase in the number of people intercepted with false travel documents. An accurate estimation of age is only possible when a dataset for age estimation that has been derived from the corresponding ethnic population. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop and validate a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation for southern Chinese. A total of 2306 subjects were selected from the patient archives of a large dental hospital and the chronological age for each subject was recorded. This age was assigned to each specific stage of dental development for each tooth to create a RDS. To validate this RDS, a further 484 subjects were randomly chosen from the patient archives and their dental age was assessed based on the scores from the RDS. Dental age was estimated using meta-analysis command corresponding to random effects statistical model. Chronological age (CA) and Dental Age (DA) were compared using the paired t-test. The overall difference between the chronological and dental age (CA-DA) was 0.05 years (2.6 weeks) for males and 0.03 years (1.6 weeks) for females. The paired t-test indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the chronological and dental age (p > 0.05). The validated southern Chinese reference dataset based on dental maturation accurately estimated the chronological age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Proof of age required--estimating age in adults without birth records.

PubMed

Phillips, Christine; Narayanasamy, Shanti

2010-07-01

Many adults from refugee source countries do not have documents of birth, either because they have been lost in flight, or because the civil infrastructure is too fragile to support routine recording of birth. In Western countries, date of birth is used as a basic identifier, and access to services and support tends to be age regulated. Doctors are not infrequently asked to write formal reports estimating the true age of adult refugees; however, there are no existing guidelines to assist in this task. To provide an overview of methods to estimate age in living adults, and outline recommendations for best practice. Age should be estimated through physical examination; life history, matching local or national events with personal milestones; and existing nonformal documents. Accuracy of age estimation should be subject to three tests: biological plausibility, historical plausibility, and corroboration from reputable sources.

Canine pulp ratios in estimating pensionable age in subjects with questionable documents of identification.

PubMed

Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi

2011-03-20

One of the most interesting reasons for needing to estimate age in adult subjects is to ascertain the age of a person of questionable pensionable age. This problem is becoming increasingly important in Europe, owing to the high number of immigrants without valid birth certificates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the application of the apposition of secondary dentine of canines by the method of Cameriere et al. [10], in order to estimate the pensionable age of subjects without proper birth certificates. Periapical X-rays of 180 canines from 90 subjects aged between 50 and 79, 46 men and 44 women, were analysed. Estimated ages were used to test the medico-legal question as to whether an individual was older or younger than 65 years of age. In subjects under 65, age was correctly evaluated in 91% and 89% of individuals using maxillary and mandibular canines, respectively. In subjects over 65, of pensionable age, estimates were correct in 85% and 88% of cases, respectively. The proportion of individuals with correct classifications was 89% for both maxillary and mandibular canines taken together. In only four subjects, the results of maxillary and mandibular canines were discordant; in the other 86 subjects, the test of maxillary and mandibular canines yielded concordant results. Among the latter, the proportion of individuals who were really aged 65 years or older, and who were correctly estimated as such, was 94%, and the proportion of individuals younger than 65 years of age who were correctly estimated as such was 96%. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development.

PubMed

Alshihri, Amin M; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P < 0.05) from the mean chronological age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage "H" most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results.

Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used: evaluation of an ad-hoc procedure.

PubMed

Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen-Tangmose, Sara; Lynnerup, Niels; Boldsen, Jesper; Thevissen, Patrick

2016-03-01

When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple indicators is not the calculation of a combined point estimate for age but the construction of an appropriate prediction interval. Ignoring the correlation between the age indicators results in intervals being too small. Boldsen et al. (2002) presented an ad-hoc procedure to construct an approximate confidence interval without the need to model the multivariate correlation structure between the indicators. The aim of the present paper is to bring under attention this pragmatic approach and to evaluate its performance in a practical setting. This is all the more needed since recent publications ignore the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.

Estimating age at a specified length from the von Bertalanffy growth function

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ogle, Derek H.; Isermann, Daniel A.

2017-01-01

Estimating the time required (i.e., age) for fish in a population to reach a specific length (e.g., legal harvest length) is useful for understanding population dynamics and simulating the potential effects of length-based harvest regulations. The age at which a population reaches a specific mean length is typically estimated by fitting a von Bertalanffy growth function to length-at-age data and then rearranging the best-fit equation to solve for age at the specified length. This process precludes the use of standard frequentist methods to compute confidence intervals and compare estimates of age at the specified length among populations. We provide a parameterization of the von Bertalanffy growth function that has age at a specified length as a parameter. With this parameterization, age at a specified length is directly estimated, and standard methods can be used to construct confidence intervals and make among-group comparisons for this parameter. We demonstrate use of the new parameterization with two data sets.

Comparative precision of age estimates from two southern reservoir populations of paddlefish [Polyodon spathula (Walbaum, 1792)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Nealis, Ashley

2017-01-01

The aim of the study was to determine whether location and sex affected the age precision estimates between two southern, reservoir populations of paddlefish [Polyodon spathula (Walbaum, 1792)]. From 589 paddlefish collected in Grand Lake and Keystone Lake, Oklahoma in 2011, ages from dentaries were estimated using three independent readers and precision was compared with coefficient of variation between locations and sexes. Ages were more precisely estimated from Grand Lake and from females.

Size at emergence improves accuracy of age estimates in forensically-useful beetle Creophilus maxillosus L. (Staphylinidae).

PubMed

Matuszewski, Szymon; Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna

2018-02-05

Insects colonizing human or animal cadavers may be used to estimate post-mortem interval (PMI) usually by aging larvae or pupae sampled on a crime scene. The accuracy of insect age estimates in a forensic context is reduced by large intraspecific variation in insect development time. Here we test the concept that insect size at emergence may be used to predict insect physiological age and accordingly to improve the accuracy of age estimates in forensic entomology. Using results of laboratory study on development of forensically-useful beetle Creophilus maxillosus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Staphylinidae) we demonstrate that its physiological age at emergence [i.e. thermal summation value (K) needed for emergence] fall with an increase of beetle size. In the validation study it was found that K estimated based on the adult insect size was significantly closer to the true K as compared to K from the general thermal summation model. Using beetle length at emergence as a predictor variable and male or female specific model regressing K against beetle length gave the most accurate predictions of age. These results demonstrate that size of C. maxillosus at emergence improves accuracy of age estimates in a forensic context.

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites(.).

PubMed

Lottering, Nicolene; MacGregor, Donna M; Alston, Clair L; Watson, Debbie; Gregory, Laura S

2016-01-01

Contemporary, population-specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two- to four-tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum-likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

The role of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry in estimating the chronological age of living individuals in Hamburg, Germany.

PubMed

Mansour, Hussam; Fuhrmann, Andreas; Paradowski, Ioana; van Well, Eilin Jopp; Püschel, Klaus

2017-03-01

Age estimation represents one of the primary responsibilities of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry. It is an integral procedure aiming to estimate the chronological age of an individual, whose age is either unknown or doubtful, by means of assessing the stage of dental, skeletal, and physical development. The present publication reviews the methods and procedures used in estimating the age of young living individuals as well as the experiences of the Institute of Legal Medicine in Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany, during the last 25 years. From 1990 to 2015, 4223 age estimations were carried out in Hamburg. During this time, forensic age estimation was requested by different concerned authorities including courts, the foreigners' registration office (Zentrale Ausländerbehörde), and the state office of education and consultation (Landesbetrieb Erziehung und Beratung). In the context of judicial proceedings, orthopantomograms, as well as X-ray examinations of both the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses were carried out in accordance with AGFAD recommendations. For investigations not associated with judicial proceedings, orthopantomogram examinations play a key role in the process of age estimation, due to their high diagnostic value and low radiation exposure. Since 2009, mainly unaccompanied young refugees were examined for age estimation. Orthopantomograms and clinical-physical examinations have been used as essential steps in this context to determine whether an individual is 18 years or less. Additional X-ray examinations of the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses have been used less frequently.

Age estimation of living Indian individuals based on aspartic acid racemization from tooth biopsy specimen

PubMed Central

Rastogi, Manu; Logani, Ajay; Shah, Naseem; Kumar, Abhishek; Arora, Saurabh

2017-01-01

Background: Age estimation in living individuals is imperative to amicably settle civil and criminal disputes. A biochemical method based on amino acid racemization was evaluated for age estimation of living Indian individuals. Design: Caries-free maxillary/mandibular premolar teeth (n = 90) were collected from participants with age proof documents and divided into predefined nine age groups. Materials and Methods: Dentine biopsy from the labial aspect of the tooth crown was taken with an indigenously developed microtrephine. The samples were processed and subjected to gas chromatography. Dextrorotatory:levorotatory ratios were calculated, and a regression equation was formulated. Results: Across all age groups, an error of 0 ± 4 years between protein racemization age and chronological age was observed. Conclusion: Aspartic acid racemization from dentine biopsy samples could be a viable and accurate technique for age estimation of living individuals who have attained a state of skeletal maturity. PMID:29263613

Estimating stand age for Douglas-fir.

Treesearch

Floyd A. Johnson

1954-01-01

Stand age for Douglas-fir has been defined as the average age of dominant and codominant trees. It is commonly estimated by measuring the age of several dominants and codominants and computing their arithmetic average.

Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

PubMed Central

Ting, Hua-Nong

2014-01-01

Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

The Estimation of Gestational Age at Birth in Database Studies.

PubMed

Eberg, Maria; Platt, Robert W; Filion, Kristian B

2017-11-01

Studies on the safety of prenatal medication use require valid estimation of the pregnancy duration. However, gestational age is often incompletely recorded in administrative and clinical databases. Our objective was to compare different approaches to estimating the pregnancy duration. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics, we examined the following four approaches to estimating missing gestational age: (1) generalized estimating equations for longitudinal data; (2) multiple imputation; (3) estimation based on fetal birth weight and sex; and (4) conventional approaches that assigned a fixed value (39 weeks for all or 39 weeks for full term and 35 weeks for preterm). The gestational age recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics was considered the gold standard. We conducted a simulation study comparing the described approaches in terms of estimated bias and mean square error. A total of 25,929 infants from 22,774 mothers were included in our "gold standard" cohort. The smallest average absolute bias was observed for the generalized estimating equation that included birth weight, while the largest absolute bias occurred when assigning 39-week gestation to all those with missing values. The smallest mean square errors were detected with generalized estimating equations while multiple imputation had the highest mean square errors. The use of generalized estimating equations resulted in the most accurate estimation of missing gestational age when birth weight information was available. In the absence of birth weight, assignment of fixed gestational age based on term/preterm status may be the optimal approach.

Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2011-01-01

Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies

PubMed Central

Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G.

2017-01-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire. PMID:28696282

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies.

PubMed

Diekmann, Yoan; Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Page, Abigail E; Chaudhary, Nikhil; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G

2017-08-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire.

Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development

PubMed Central

Alshihri, Amin M.; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

2014-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. Materials and Methods: The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Results: Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P < 0.05) from the mean chronological age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage “H” most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Conclusion: Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results. PMID:25202206

Age estimation from canine volumes.

PubMed

De Angelis, Danilo; Gaudio, Daniel; Guercini, Nicola; Cipriani, Filippo; Gibelli, Daniele; Caputi, Sergio; Cattaneo, Cristina

2015-08-01

Techniques for estimation of biological age are constantly evolving and are finding daily application in the forensic radiology field in cases concerning the estimation of the chronological age of a corpse in order to reconstruct the biological profile, or of a living subject, for example in cases of immigration of people without identity papers from a civil registry. The deposition of teeth secondary dentine and consequent decrease of pulp chamber in size are well known as aging phenomena, and they have been applied to the forensic context by the development of age estimation procedures, such as Kvaal-Solheim and Cameriere methods. The present study takes into consideration canines pulp chamber volume related to the entire teeth volume, with the aim of proposing new regression formulae for age estimation using 91 cone beam computerized scans and a freeware open-source software, in order to permit affordable reproducibility of volumes calculation.

Reliability study on high power 638-nm triple emitter broad area laser diode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yagi, T.; Kuramoto, K.; Kadoiwa, K.; Wakamatsu, R.; Miyashita, M.

2016-03-01

Reliabilities of the 638-nm triple emitter broad area laser diode (BA-LD) with the window-mirror structure were studied. Methodology to estimate mean time to failure (MTTF) due to catastrophic optical mirror degradation (COMD) in reasonable aging duration was newly proposed. Power at which the LD failed due to COMD (PCOMD) was measured for the aged LDs under the several aging conditions. It was revealed that the PCOMD was proportional to logarithm of aging duration, and MTTF due to COMD (MTTF(COMD)) could be estimated by using this relation. MTTF(COMD) estimated by the methodology with the aging duration of approximately 2,000 hours was consistent with that estimated by the long term aging. By using this methodology, the MTTF of the BA-LD was estimated exceeding 100,000 hours under the output of 2.5 W, duty cycles of 30% .

A comparison of LMP-based and ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age using linked California livebirth and prenatal screening records.

PubMed

Dietz, Patricia M; England, Lucinda J; Callaghan, William M; Pearl, Michelle; Wier, Megan L; Kharrazi, Martin

2007-09-01

Although early ultrasound (<20 weeks' gestation) systematically underestimates the gestational age of smaller fetuses by approximately 1-2 days, this bias is relatively small compared with the large error introduced by last menstrual period (LMP) estimates of gestation, as evidenced by the number of implausible birthweight-for-gestational age. To characterise this misclassification, we compared gestational age estimates based on LMP from California birth certificates with those based on early ultrasound from a California linked Statewide Expanded Alpha-fetoprotein Screening Program (XAFP). The final sample comprised 165 908 women. Birthweight distributions were plotted by gestational age; sensitivity and positive predictive value for preterm rates according to LMP were calculated using ultrasound as the 'gold standard'. For gestational ages 20-27 and 28-31 weeks, the LMP-based birthweight distributions were bimodal, whereas the ultrasound-based distributions were unimodal, but had long right tails. At 32-36 weeks, the LMP distribution was wider, flatter, and shifted to the right, compared with the ultrasound distribution. LMP vs. ultrasound estimates were, respectively, 8.7% vs. 7.9% preterm (<37 weeks), 81.2% vs. 91.0% term (37-41 weeks), and 10.1% vs. 1.1% post-term (>or=42 weeks). The sensitivity of the LMP-based preterm birth estimate was 64.3%, and the positive predictive value was 58.7%. Overall, 17.2% of the records had estimates with an absolute difference of >14 days. The groups most likely to have inconsistent gestational age estimates included African American and Hispanic women, younger and less-educated women, and those who entered prenatal care after the second month of pregnancy. In conclusion, we found substantial misclassification of LMP-based gestational age. The 2003 revised US Standard Certificate of Live Birth includes a new gestational age item, the obstetric estimate. It will be important to assess whether this estimate addresses the problems presented by LMP-based gestational age.

Lung function decline over 25 years of follow-up among black and white adults in the ARIC study cohort.

PubMed

Mirabelli, Maria C; Preisser, John S; Loehr, Laura R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Barr, R Graham; Couper, David J; Hankinson, John L; Hyun, Noorie; Folsom, Aaron R; London, Stephanie J

2016-04-01

Interpretation of longitudinal information about lung function decline from middle to older age has been limited by loss to follow-up that may be correlated with baseline lung function or the rate of decline. We conducted these analyses to estimate age-related decline in lung function across groups of race, sex, and smoking status while accounting for dropout from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We analyzed data from 13,896 black and white participants, aged 45-64 years at the 1987-1989 baseline clinical examination. Using spirometry data collected at baseline and two follow-up visits, we estimated annual population-averaged mean changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by race, sex, and smoking status using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning-on-being-alive. Estimated rates of FEV1 decline estimated using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning on being alive were higher among white than black participants at age 45 years (e.g., male never smokers: black: -29.5 ml/year; white: -51.9 ml/year), but higher among black than white participants by age 75 (black: -51.2 ml/year; white: -26). Observed differences by race were more pronounced among men than among women. By smoking status, FEV1 declines were larger among current than former or never smokers at age 45 across all categories of race and sex. By age 60, FEV1 decline was larger among former and never than current smokers. Estimated annual declines generated using unweighted generalized estimating equations were smaller for current smokers at younger ages in all four groups of race and sex compared with results from weighted analyses that accounted for attrition. Using methods accounting for dropout from an approximately 25-year health study, estimated rates of lung function decline varied by age, race, sex, and smoking status, with largest declines observed among current smokers at younger ages. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Forensic dental age estimation by measuring root dentin translucency area using a new digital technique.

PubMed

Acharya, Ashith B

2014-05-01

Dentin translucency measurement is an easy yet relatively accurate approach to postmortem age estimation. Translucency area represents a two-dimensional change and may reflect age variations better than length. Manually measuring area is challenging and this paper proposes a new digital method using commercially available computer hardware and software. Area and length were measured on 100 tooth sections (age range, 19-82 years) of 250 μm thickness. Regression analysis revealed lower standard error of estimate and higher correlation with age for length than for area (R = 0.62 vs. 0.60). However, test of regression formulae on a control sample (n = 33, 21-85 years) showed smaller mean absolute difference (8.3 vs. 8.8 years) and greater frequency of smaller errors (73% vs. 67% age estimates ≤ ± 10 years) for area than for length. These suggest that digital area measurements of root translucency may be used as an alternative to length in forensic age estimation. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Improvement of age estimation using amino acid racemization in a case of pink teeth.

PubMed

Ohtani, S; Yamada, Y; Yamamoto, I

1998-03-01

Age was estimated from pink teeth using racemization of dentinal aspartic acid. Materials for identification were two lower second premolars. The body was determined to be that of a 40-year-old man; however, the age of the decedent had been estimated to be 29 and 30 years by the conventional method and 30 years from findings in the oral cavity. To clarify the cause of this difference, the powdered teeth were further washed in 0.01 mol/L hydrochloric acid. The racemization ratio (D/L ratio) of ordinary white teeth from persons of known age was slightly lower than that before washing, whereas that of the teeth used for identification was higher than before washing. The calculated age of the decedent using the racemization ratio of his teeth was between 36 and 37 years. These results suggest that age estimated from pink teeth is probably underestimated, but a more accurate age estimate can be obtained after adequate washing.

Age Estimation of Infants Through Metric Analysis of Developing Anterior Deciduous Teeth.

PubMed

Viciano, Joan; De Luca, Stefano; Irurita, Javier; Alemán, Inmaculada

2018-01-01

This study provides regression equations for estimation of age of infants from the dimensions of their developing deciduous teeth. The sample comprises 97 individuals of known sex and age (62 boys, 35 girls), aged between 2 days and 1,081 days. The age-estimation equations were obtained for the sexes combined, as well as for each sex separately, thus including "sex" as an independent variable. The values of the correlations and determination coefficients obtained for each regression equation indicate good fits for most of the equations obtained. The "sex" factor was statistically significant when included as an independent variable in seven of the regression equations. However, the "sex" factor provided an advantage for age estimation in only three of the equations, compared to those that did not include "sex" as a factor. These data suggest that the ages of infants can be accurately estimated from measurements of their developing deciduous teeth. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus).

PubMed

Mbizah, Moreangels M; Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J

2016-01-01

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6-24 months; 25-60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden's Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a moderately reliable method for estimating both chronological age and age class. This method gives a balance between accuracy, cost and practicability, therefore it is recommended when precise age estimations are not paramount.

Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus)

PubMed Central

Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J.

2016-01-01

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6–24 months; 25–60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a moderately reliable method for estimating both chronological age and age class. This method gives a balance between accuracy, cost and practicability, therefore it is recommended when precise age estimations are not paramount. PMID:27732663

Accuracy of aging ducks in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Waterfowl Parts Collection Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Aaron T.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Richkus, Kenneth D.; Rohwer, Frank C.; Cox, Robert R.; Padding, Paul I.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conducts an annual Waterfowl Parts Collection Survey to estimate composition of harvested waterfowl by species, sex, and age (i.e., juv or ad). The survey relies on interpretation of duck wings by a group of experienced biologists at annual meetings (hereafter, flyway wingbees). Our objectives were to estimate accuracy of age assignment at flyway wingbees and to explore how accuracy rates may influence bias of age composition estimates. We used banded mallards (Anas platyrhynchos; n = 791), wood ducks (Aix sponsa; n = 242), and blue-winged teal (Anas discors; n = 39) harvested and donated by hunters as our source of birds used in accuracy assessments. We sent wings of donated birds to wingbees after the 2002–2003 and 2003–2004 hunting seasons and compared species, sex, and age determinations made at wingbees with our assessments based on internal and external examination of birds and corresponding banding records. Determinations of species and sex of mallards, wood ducks, and blue-winged teal were accurate (>99%). Accuracy of aging adult mallards increased with harvest date, whereas accuracy of aging juvenile male wood ducks and juvenile blue-winged teal decreased with harvest date. Accuracy rates were highest (96% and 95%) for adult and juvenile mallards, moderate for adult and juvenile wood ducks (92% and 92%), and lowest for adult and juvenile blue-winged teal (84% and 82%). We used these estimates to calculate bias for all possible age compositions (0–100% proportion juv) and determined the range of age compositions estimated with acceptable levels of bias. Comparing these ranges with age compositions estimated from Parts Collection Surveys conducted from 1961 to 2008 revealed that mallard and wood duck age compositions were estimated with insignificant levels of bias in all national surveys. However, 69% of age compositions for blue-winged teal were estimated with an unacceptable level of bias. The low preliminary accuracy rates of aging blue-winged teal based on our limited sample suggest a more extensive accuracy assessment study may be considered for interpreting age compositions of this species.

The applicability of dental wear in age estimation for a modern American population.

PubMed

Faillace, Katie E; Bethard, Jonathan D; Marks, Murray K

2017-12-01

Though applied in bioarchaeology, dental wear is an underexplored age indicator in the biological anthropology of contemporary populations, although research has been conducted on dental attrition in forensic contexts (Kim et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 45, 303; Prince et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 53, 588; Yun et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 52, 678). The purpose of this study is to apply and adapt existing techniques for age estimation based on dental wear to a modern American population, with the aim of producing accurate age range estimates for individuals from an industrialized context. Methodologies following Yun and Prince were applied to a random sample from the University of New Mexico (n = 583) and Universidade de Coimbra (n = 50) cast and skeletal collections. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between tooth wear scores and age. Application of both Yun et al. () and Prince et al. () methodologies resulted in inaccurate age estimates. Recalibrated sectioning points correctly classified individuals as over or under 50 years for 88% of the sample. Linear regression demonstrated 60% of age estimates fell within ±10 years of the actual age, and accuracy improved for individuals under 45 years, with 74% of predictions within ±10 years. This study demonstrates age estimation from dental wear is possible for modern populations, with comparable age intervals to other established methods. It provides a quantifiable method of seriation into "older" and "younger" adult categories, and provides more reliable age interval estimates than cranial sutures in instances where only the skull is available. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Age ratios as estimators of productivity: testing assumptions on a threatened seabird, the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus)

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; Benjamin H. Becker; Steven R. Beissinger

2007-01-01

The ratio of hatch-year (HY) to after-hatch-year (AHY) individuals (HY:AHY ratio) can be a valuable metric for estimating avian productivity because it does not require monitoring individual breeding sites and can often be estimated across large geographic and temporal scales. However, rigorous estimation of age ratios requires that both young and adult age classes are...

Forensic age estimation based on development of third molars: a staging technique for magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

De Tobel, J; Phlypo, I; Fieuws, S; Politis, C; Verstraete, K L; Thevissen, P W

2017-12-01

The development of third molars can be evaluated with medical imaging to estimate age in subadults. The appearance of third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) differs greatly from that on radiographs. Therefore a specific staging technique is necessary to classify third molar development on MRI and to apply it for age estimation. To develop a specific staging technique to register third molar development on MRI and to evaluate its performance for age estimation in subadults. Using 3T MRI in three planes, all third molars were evaluated in 309 healthy Caucasian participants from 14 to 26 years old. According to the appearance of the developing third molars on MRI, descriptive criteria and schematic representations were established to define a specific staging technique. Two observers, with different levels of experience, staged all third molars independently with the developed technique. Intra- and inter-observer agreement were calculated. The data were imported in a Bayesian model for age estimation as described by Fieuws et al. (2016). This approach adequately handles correlation between age indicators and missing age indicators. It was used to calculate a point estimate and a prediction interval of the estimated age. Observed age minus predicted age was calculated, reflecting the error of the estimate. One-hundred and sixty-six third molars were agenetic. Five percent (51/1096) of upper third molars and 7% (70/1044) of lower third molars were not assessable. Kappa for inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.76 to 0.80. For intra-observer agreement kappa ranged from 0.80 to 0.89. However, two stage differences between observers or between staging sessions occurred in up to 2.2% (20/899) of assessments, probably due to a learning effect. Using the Bayesian model for age estimation, a mean absolute error of 2.0 years in females and 1.7 years in males was obtained. Root mean squared error equalled 2.38 years and 2.06 years respectively. The performance to discern minors from adults was better for males than for females, with specificities of 96% and 73% respectively. Age estimations based on the proposed staging method for third molars on MRI showed comparable reproducibility and performance as the established methods based on radiographs.

Absolute and estimated values of macular pigment optical density in young and aged Asian participants with or without age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Ozawa, Yoko; Shigeno, Yuta; Nagai, Norihiro; Suzuki, Misa; Kurihara, Toshihide; Minami, Sakiko; Hirano, Eri; Shinoda, Hajime; Kobayashi, Saori; Tsubota, Kazuo

2017-08-29

Lutein and zeaxanthin are suggested micronutrient supplements to prevent the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness worldwide. To monitor the levels of lutein/zeaxanthin in the macula, macular pigment optical density (MPOD) is measured. A commercially available device (MPSII®, Elektron Technology, Switzerland), using technology based on heterochromatic flicker photometry, can measure both absolute and estimated values of MPOD. However, whether the estimated value is applicable to Asian individuals and/or AMD patients remains to be determined. The absolute and estimated values of MPOD were measured using the MPSII® device in 77 participants with a best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) > 0.099 (logMAR score). The studied eyes included 17 young (20-29 years) healthy, 26 aged (>50 years) healthy, 18 aged and AMD-fellow, and 16 aged AMD eyes. The mean BCVA among the groups were not significantly different. Both absolute and estimated values were measurable in all eyes of young healthy group. However, absolute values were measurable in only 57.7%, 66.7%, and 43.8%, of the aged healthy, AMD-fellow, and AMD groups, respectively, and 56.7% of the eyes included in the 3 aged groups. In contrast, the estimated value was measurable in 84.6%, 88.9% and 93.8% of the groups, respectively, and 88.3% of eyes in the pooled aged group. The estimated value was correlated with absolute value in individuals from all groups by Spearman's correlation coefficient analyses (young healthy: R 2  = 0.885, P = 0.0001; aged healthy: R 2  = 0.765, P = 0.001; AMD-fellow: R 2  = 0.851, P = 0.0001; and AMD: R 2  = 0.860, P = 0.013). Using the estimated value, significantly lower MPOD values were found in aged AMD-related eyes, which included both AMD-fellow and AMD eyes, compared with aged healthy eyes by Student's t-test (P = 0.02). Absolute, in contrast to estimated, value was measurable in a limited number of aged participants; however, it was correlated with estimated value both in young and aged Asian populations with or without AMD. These results may inform future clinical studies investigating the measurement of MPOD in understanding the role of macular pigments in the pathogenesis of AMD.

Age, growth, and size of Lake Superior Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Taylor; Derek Ogle,; Gorman, Owen T.; Vinson, Mark

2016-01-01

Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii) are a small, glacial relict species with a disjunct distribution in North America and Siberia. In 2013 we collected Pygmy Whitefish at 28 stations from throughout Lake Superior. Total length was recorded for all fish and weight and sex were recorded and scales and otoliths were collected from a subsample. We compared the precision of estimated ages between readers and between scales and otoliths, estimated von Bertalanffy growth parameters for male and female Pygmy Whitefish, and reported the first weight-length relationship for Pygmy Whitefish. Age estimates between scales and otoliths differed significantly with otolith ages significantly greater for most ages after age-3. Maximum otolith age was nine for females and seven for males, which is older than previously reported for Pygmy Whitefish from Lake Superior. Growth was initially fast but slowed considerably after age-3 for males and age-4 for females, falling to 3–4 mm per year at maximum estimated ages. Females were longer than males after age-3. Our results suggest the size, age, and growth of Pygmy Whitefish in Lake Superior have not changed appreciably since 1953.

The Demirjian versus the Willems method for dental age estimation in different populations: A meta-analysis of published studies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background The accuracy of radiographic methods for dental age estimation is important for biological growth research and forensic applications. Accuracy of the two most commonly used systems (Demirjian and Willems) has been evaluated with conflicting results. This study investigates the accuracies of these methods for dental age estimation in different populations. Methods A search of PubMed, Scopus, Ovid, Database of Open Access Journals and Google Scholar was undertaken. Eligible studies published before December 28, 2016 were reviewed and analyzed. Meta-analysis was performed on 28 published articles using the Demirjian and/or Willems methods to estimate chronological age in 14,109 children (6,581 males, 7,528 females) age 3–18 years in studies using Demirjian’s method and 10,832 children (5,176 males, 5,656 females) age 4–18 years in studies using Willems’ method. The weighted mean difference at 95% confidence interval was used to assess accuracies of the two methods in predicting the chronological age. Results The Demirjian method significantly overestimated chronological age (p<0.05) in males age 3–15 and females age 4–16 when studies were pooled by age cohorts and sex. The majority of studies using Willems’ method did not report significant overestimation of ages in either sex. Overall, Demirjian’s method significantly overestimated chronological age compared to the Willems method (p<0.05). The weighted mean difference for the Demirjian method was 0.62 for males and 0.72 for females, while that of the Willems method was 0.26 for males and 0.29 for females. Conclusion The Willems method provides more accurate estimation of chronological age in different populations, while Demirjian’s method has a broad application in terms of determining maturity scores. However, accuracy of Demirjian age estimations is confounded by population variation when converting maturity scores to dental ages. For highest accuracy of age estimation, population-specific standards, rather than a universal standard or methods developed on other populations, need to be employed. PMID:29117240

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. However, estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: (1) The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality (heterogeneity effect); (2) standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages and (3) ages of very old people may be exaggerated. One way of obtaining estimates of mortality at extreme ages is to pool together international records of persons surviving to extreme ages with subsequent efforts of strict age validation. This approach helps researchers to resolve the third of the above-mentioned problems but does not resolve the first two problems because of inevitable data heterogeneity when data for people belonging to different birth cohorts and countries are pooled together. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow (monthly) age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation are elaborated. This approach is based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File (DMF). Some birth cohorts covered by DMF could be studied by the method of extinct generations. Availability of month of birth and month of death information provides a unique opportunity to obtain hazard rate estimates for every month of age. Study of several single-year extinct birth cohorts shows that mortality trajectory at advanced ages follows the Gompertz law up to the ages 102–105 years without a noticeable deceleration. Earlier reports of mortality deceleration (deviation of mortality from the Gompertz law) at ages below 100 appear to be artifacts of mixing together several birth cohorts with different mortality levels and using cross-sectional instead of cohort data. Age exaggeration and crude assumptions applied to mortality estimates at advanced ages may also contribute to mortality underestimation at very advanced ages. PMID:22308064

Age estimation using exfoliative cytology and radiovisiography: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Nallamala, Shilpa; Guttikonda, Venkateswara Rao; Manchikatla, Praveen Kumar; Taneeru, Sravya

2017-01-01

Introduction: Age estimation is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of an individual. Among various methods, exfoliative cytology (EC) is a unique, noninvasive technique, involving simple, and pain-free collection of intact cells from the oral cavity for microscopic examination. Objective: The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from the average cell size of their buccal smears calculated using image analysis morphometric software and the pulp–tooth area ratio in mandibular canine of the same individual using radiovisiography (RVG). Materials and Methods: Buccal smears were collected from 100 apparently healthy individuals. After fixation in 95% alcohol, the smears were stained using Papanicolaou stain. The average cell size was measured using image analysis software (Image-Pro Insight 8.0). The RVG images of mandibular canines were obtained, pulp and tooth areas were traced using AutoCAD 2010 software, and area ratio was calculated. The estimated age was then calculated using regression analysis. Results: The paired t-test between chronological age and estimated age by cell size and pulp–tooth area ratio was statistically nonsignificant (P > 0.05). Conclusion: In the present study, age estimated by pulp–tooth area ratio and EC yielded good results. PMID:29657491

Age estimation using exfoliative cytology and radiovisiography: A comparative study.

PubMed

Nallamala, Shilpa; Guttikonda, Venkateswara Rao; Manchikatla, Praveen Kumar; Taneeru, Sravya

2017-01-01

Age estimation is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of an individual. Among various methods, exfoliative cytology (EC) is a unique, noninvasive technique, involving simple, and pain-free collection of intact cells from the oral cavity for microscopic examination. The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from the average cell size of their buccal smears calculated using image analysis morphometric software and the pulp-tooth area ratio in mandibular canine of the same individual using radiovisiography (RVG). Buccal smears were collected from 100 apparently healthy individuals. After fixation in 95% alcohol, the smears were stained using Papanicolaou stain. The average cell size was measured using image analysis software (Image-Pro Insight 8.0). The RVG images of mandibular canines were obtained, pulp and tooth areas were traced using AutoCAD 2010 software, and area ratio was calculated. The estimated age was then calculated using regression analysis. The paired t -test between chronological age and estimated age by cell size and pulp-tooth area ratio was statistically nonsignificant ( P > 0.05). In the present study, age estimated by pulp-tooth area ratio and EC yielded good results.

Variation between last-menstrual-period and clinical estimates of gestational age in vital records.

PubMed

Qin, Cheng; Hsia, Jason; Berg, Cynthia J

2008-03-15

An accurate assessment of gestational age is vital to population-based research and surveillance in maternal and infant health. However, the quality of gestational age measurements derived from birth certificates has been in question. Using the 2002 US public-use natality file, the authors examined the agreement between estimates of gestational age based on the last menstrual period (LMP) and clinical estimates in vital records across durations of gestation and US states and explored reasons for disagreement. Agreement between the LMP and the clinical estimate of gestational age varied substantially across gestations and among states. Preterm births were more likely than term births to have disagreement between the two estimates. Maternal age, maternal education, initiation of prenatal care, order of livebirth, and use of ultrasound had significant independent effects on the disagreement between the two measures, regardless of gestational age, but these factors made little difference in the magnitude of gestational age group differences. Information available on birth certificates was not sufficient to understand this disparity. The lowest agreement between the LMP and the clinical estimate was observed among preterm infants born at 28-36 weeks' gestation, who accounted for more than 90% of total preterm births. This finding deserves particular attention and further investigation.

A comparison of skeletal maturity assessed by radiological and ultrasonic methods.

PubMed

Utczas, Katinka; Muzsnai, Agota; Cameron, Noel; Zsakai, Annamaria; Bodzsar, Eva B

2017-07-08

The estimation of skeletal maturity is a useful tool in pediatric practice to determine the degree of delay or advancement in growth disorders and the effectiveness of treatment in conditions that influence linear growth. Skeletal maturity of children is commonly assessed using either Greulich-Pyle (GP) or Tanner-Whitehouse methods (TW2 and TW3). However, a less invasive ultrasonic method, that does not use ionizing radiation, has been suggested for use in epidemiological studies of skeletal maturity. The main purpose of the present study was to determine the accuracy of an ultrasonic method based on the GP maturity indicators compared to the standard GP radiographic method. Skeletal maturity of 1502 healthy children, aged from 6 to 18 years, was estimated by quantitative ultrasound and compared to GP bone ages estimated from left hand and wrist radiographs of a subsample of 47 randomly selected participants. The ultrasonic bone age estimation demonstrated very strong correlations with all the radiological age estimations. The correlation coefficients ranged between 0.895 and 0.958, and the strongest correlation of ultrasonic skeletal maturity estimation was found with the Tanner-Whitehouse RUS method. The ultrasonic bone age estimation is suggested for use between the chronological ages of 8.5-16.0 years in boys and 7.5-15.0 years in girls. The ultrasonic bone age estimation is suggested for use in epidemiological surveys since the sensitivity for screening for not normal bone development is appropriate, at least within the 8-15 years age interval. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Gestational age estimation on United States livebirth certificates: a historical overview.

PubMed

Wier, Megan L; Pearl, Michelle; Kharrazi, Martin

2007-09-01

Gestational age on the birth certificate is the most common source of population-based gestational age data that informs public health policy and practice in the US. Last menstrual period is one of the oldest methods of gestational age estimation and has been on the US Standard Certificate of Live Birth since 1968. The 'clinical estimate of gestation', added to the standard certificate in 1989 to address missing or erroneous last menstrual period data, was replaced by the 'obstetric estimate of gestation' on the 2003 revision, which specifically precludes neonatal assessments. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these measures, potential research implications and challenges accompanying the transition to the obstetric estimate.

A new age-based formula for estimating weight of Korean children.

PubMed

Park, Jungho; Kwak, Young Ho; Kim, Do Kyun; Jung, Jae Yun; Lee, Jin Hee; Jang, Hye Young; Kim, Hahn Bom; Hong, Ki Jeong

2012-09-01

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new age-based formula for estimating body weights of Korean children. We obtained body weight and age data from a survey conducted in 2005 by the Korean Pediatric Society that was performed to establish normative values for Korean children. Children aged 0-14 were enrolled, and they were divided into three groups according to age: infants (<12 months), preschool-aged (1-4 years) and school-aged children (5-14 years). Seventy-five percent of all subjects were randomly selected to make a derivation set. Regression analysis was performed in order to produce equations that predict the weight from the age for each group. The linear equations derived from this analysis were simplified to create a weight estimating formula for Korean children. This formula was then validated using the remaining 25% of the study subjects with mean percentage error and absolute error. To determine whether a new formula accurately predicts actual weights of Korean children, we also compared this new formula to other weight estimation methods (APLS, Shann formula, Leffler formula, Nelson formula and Broselow tape). A total of 124,095 children's data were enrolled, and 19,854 (16.0%), 40,612 (32.7%) and 63,629 (51.3%) were classified as infants, preschool-aged and school-aged groups, respectively. Three equations, (age in months+9)/2, 2×(age in years)+9 and 4×(age in years)-1 were derived for infants, pre-school and school-aged groups, respectively. When these equations were applied to the validation set, the actual average weight of those children was 0.4kg heavier than our estimated weight (95% CI=0.37-0.43, p<0.001). The mean percentage error of our model (+0.9%) was lower than APLS (-11.5%), Shann formula (-8.6%), Leffler formula (-1.7%), Nelson formula (-10.0%), Best Guess formula (+5.0%) and Broselow tape (-4.8%) for all age groups. We developed and validated a simple formula to estimate body weight from the age of Korean children and found that this new formula was more accurate than other weight estimating methods. However, care should be taken when applying this formula to older children because of a large standard deviation of estimated weight. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

PubMed Central

Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

2015-01-01

Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

Errors in Site Index Determination Caused by Tree Age Variation in Even-Aged Oak Stands

Treesearch

Robert A. McQuilkin

1975-01-01

Age deviations of individual trees in even-aged oak stands in Missouri caused variations in the height growth patterns and site index estimates of these younger or older trees. A correction factor for site index estimates on these age-deviant trees is given.

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2017-01-01

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Assessing the application of tooth cementum annulation relative to macroscopic aging techniques in an archeological sample.

PubMed

Gauthier, J; Schutkowski, H

2013-02-01

The analysis of human skeletal remains is frequently impeded by the lack of adequately preserved morphological markers on which to base age estimation, particularly in archeological contexts. Therefore, histological methods such as tooth cementum annulation analysis can be useful for extracting reliable age estimates from poorly preserved skeletons, if they produce results corresponding to morphologically based, multifactorial assessments. In order to test this presumption, this study compares tooth cementum annulation (TCA) with macroscopic age estimation results incorporating the Brooks-Suchey pubic symphysis and the Buckberry-Chamberlain revised auricular surface methods, as well as Brothwell's guidelines for analyzing dental attrition. Undecalcified, polished, and unstained transverse thin sections viewed using standard light microscopy, with decentered phase contrast microscopy in cases of poorly delineated cementum annulations, were used for TCA counts. Age estimates were applied independently on the late medieval archeological Box Lane cemetery assemblage from Pontefract, England, to analyze their measure of correspondence and to assess whether data produced by a single histological technique are comparable to information pooled from multiple morphological age markers. Spearman's rank correlation tests resulted in a significant association between TCA and morphological age estimates. Further studies using larger samples of known age material would help to improve our understanding of TCA age estimation performance relative to macroscopic age assessment as well as continued refinement and standardization of cementum sectioning, which is suggested to impact annulation visibility. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The IDF Diabetes Atlas methodology for estimating global prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy.

PubMed

Linnenkamp, U; Guariguata, L; Beagley, J; Whiting, D R; Cho, N H

2014-02-01

Hyperglycaemia is one of the most prevalent metabolic disorders occurring during pregnancy. Limited data are available on the global prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has developed a methodology for generating estimates of the prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy, including hyperglycaemia first detected in pregnancy and live births to women with known diabetes, among women of childbearing age (20-49 years). A systematic review of the literature for studies reporting the prevalence of gestational diabetes was conducted. Studies were evaluated and scored to favour those that were representative of a large population, conducted recently, reported age-specific estimates, and case identification was based on blood test. Age-specific prevalence data from studies were entered to produce estimates for five-year age groups using logistic regression to smooth curves, with age as the independent variable. The derived age-specific prevalence was adjusted for differences in diagnostic criteria in the underlying data. Cases of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy were derived from age-specific estimates of fertility and age-specific population estimates. Country-specific estimates were generated for countries with available data. Regional and global estimates were generated based on aggregation and extrapolation for 219 countries and territories. Available fertility rates and diabetes prevalence estimates were used to estimate the proportion of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy that may be due to total diabetes in pregnancy - pregnancy in women with known diabetes and diabetes first detected in pregnancy. The literature review identified 199 studies that were eligible for characterisation and selection. After scoring and exclusion requirements, 46 studies were selected representing 34 countries. More than 50% of selected studies came from Europe and North America and Caribbean. The smallest number of identified studies came from sub-Saharan Africa. The majority of studies were for high-income countries, although low- and middle-income countries were also represented. Prevalence estimates of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy are sensitive to the data from which they are derived. The IDF methodology is a transparent, reproducible, and modifiable method for estimating the burden of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. More data are needed, in particular from developing countries, to strengthen the methodology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Gestational Age: Implications for Developmental Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiPietro, Janet A.; Allen, Marilee C.

1991-01-01

Reviews prenatal and postnatal methods of gestational age estimation and evaluates implementation of this information in research. Recommendations concerning the assignment of gestational age in the perinatal period and the use of age correction for preterm infants are offered. (Author/BC)

[Age and time estimation during different types of activity].

PubMed

Gareev, E M; Osipova, L G

1980-01-01

The study was concerned with the age characteristics of verbal and operative estimation of time intervals filled with different types of mental and physical activity as well as those free of it. The experiment was conducted on 85 subjects, 7--24 years of age. In all age groups and in both forms of time estimation (except verbal estimation in 10--12 years old children) there was a significant connection between the interval estimation and the type of activity. In adults and in 7--8 years old children, the connection was significantly tighter in operative estimations than in verbal ones. Unlike senior school children and adults, in 7--12 years old children there were sharp differences in precision between operative and verbal estimations and a discordance of their changes under the influence of activity. Precision and variability were rather similar in all age groups. It is suggested that the obtained data show heterochronity and a different rate of development of the higher nervous activity mechanisms providing for reflection of time in the form of verbal and voluntary motor reactions to the given interval.

Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation.

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

2016-06-28

Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages.

Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

2016-01-01

Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691

Applying Deep Learning in Medical Images: The Case of Bone Age Estimation.

PubMed

Lee, Jang Hyung; Kim, Kwang Gi

2018-01-01

A diagnostic need often arises to estimate bone age from X-ray images of the hand of a subject during the growth period. Together with measured physical height, such information may be used as indicators for the height growth prognosis of the subject. We present a way to apply the deep learning technique to medical image analysis using hand bone age estimation as an example. Age estimation was formulated as a regression problem with hand X-ray images as input and estimated age as output. A set of hand X-ray images was used to form a training set with which a regression model was trained. An image preprocessing procedure is described which reduces image variations across data instances that are unrelated to age-wise variation. The use of Caffe, a deep learning tool is demonstrated. A rather simple deep learning network was adopted and trained for tutorial purpose. A test set distinct from the training set was formed to assess the validity of the approach. The measured mean absolute difference value was 18.9 months, and the concordance correlation coefficient was 0.78. It is shown that the proposed deep learning-based neural network can be used to estimate a subject's age from hand X-ray images, which eliminates the need for tedious atlas look-ups in clinical environments and should improve the time and cost efficiency of the estimation process.

Bias correction of nutritional status estimates when reported age is used for calculating WHO indicators in children under five years of age.

PubMed

Quezada, Amado D; García-Guerra, Armando; Escobar, Leticia

2016-06-01

To assess the performance of a simple correction method for nutritional status estimates in children under five years of age when exact age is not available from the data. The proposed method was based on the assumption of symmetry of age distributions within a given month of age and validated in a large population-based survey sample of Mexican preschool children. The main distributional assumption was consistent with the data. All prevalence estimates derived from the correction method showed no statistically significant bias. In contrast, failing to correct attained age resulted in an underestimation of stunting in general and an overestimation of overweight or obesity among the youngest. The proposed method performed remarkably well in terms of bias correction of estimates and could be easily applied in situations in which either birth or interview dates are not available from the data.

Estimating the age-specific duration of herpes zoster vaccine protection: a matter of model choice?

PubMed

Bilcke, Joke; Ogunjimi, Benson; Hulstaert, Frank; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel; Beutels, Philippe

2012-04-05

The estimation of herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is crucial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HZ vaccination. Published estimates for the duration of protection from the vaccine diverge substantially, although based on data from the same trial for a follow-up period of 5 years. Different models were used to obtain these estimates, but it is unclear which of these models is most appropriate (if any). Only one study estimated vaccine efficacy by age at vaccination and time since vaccination combined. Recently, data became available from the same trial for a follow-up period of 7 years. We aim to elaborate on estimating HZ vaccine efficacy (1) by estimating it as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination, (2) by comparing the fits of a range of models, and (3) by fitting these models on data for a follow-up period of 5 and 7 years. Although the models' fit to data are very comparable, they differ substantially in how they estimate vaccine efficacy to change as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination. An accurate estimation of HZ vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is hampered by the lack of insight in the biological processes underlying HZ vaccine protection, and by the fact that such data are currently not available in sufficient detail. Uncertainty about the choice of model to estimate this important parameter should be acknowledged in cost-effectiveness analyses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dental age estimation: the role of probability estimates at the 10 year threshold.

PubMed

Lucas, Victoria S; McDonald, Fraser; Neil, Monica; Roberts, Graham

2014-08-01

The use of probability at the 18 year threshold has simplified the reporting of dental age estimates for emerging adults. The availability of simple to use widely available software has enabled the development of the probability threshold for individual teeth in growing children. Tooth development stage data from a previous study at the 10 year threshold were reused to estimate the probability of developing teeth being above or below the 10 year thresh-hold using the NORMDIST Function in Microsoft Excel. The probabilities within an individual subject are averaged to give a single probability that a subject is above or below 10 years old. To test the validity of this approach dental panoramic radiographs of 50 female and 50 male children within 2 years of the chronological age were assessed with the chronological age masked. Once the whole validation set of 100 radiographs had been assessed the masking was removed and the chronological age and dental age compared. The dental age was compared with chronological age to determine whether the dental age correctly or incorrectly identified a validation subject as above or below the 10 year threshold. The probability estimates correctly identified children as above or below on 94% of occasions. Only 2% of the validation group with a chronological age of less than 10 years were assigned to the over 10 year group. This study indicates the very high accuracy of assignment at the 10 year threshold. Further work at other legally important age thresholds is needed to explore the value of this approach to the technique of age estimation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2013-01-01 2012-01-01 true Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

PubMed

Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

2018-03-01

Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

Age estimation by canines' pulp/tooth ratio in an Iranian population using digital panoramic radiography.

PubMed

Dehghani, Mahdieh; Shadkam, Elaheh; Ahrari, Farzaneh; Dehghani, Mahboobe

2018-04-01

Age estimation in adults is an important issue in forensic science. This study aimed to estimate the chronological age of Iranians by means of pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of canines in digital panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of panoramic radiographs of 271 male and female subjects aged 16-64 years. The pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of upper and lower canines was calculated by AutoCAD software. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis. There was a significant and inverse correlation between age and pulp/tooth area ratio of upper and lower canines (r=-0.794 for upper canine and r=-0.282 for lower canine; p-value<0.001). Linear regression equations were derived separately for upper, lower and both canines. The mean difference between actual and estimated age using upper canine was 6.07±1.7. The results showed that the pulp/tooth area ratios of canines are a reliable method for age estimation in Iranians. The pulp/tooth area ratio of upper canine was better correlated with chronological age than that of lower canine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, andmore » a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.« less

Age estimation based on pulp chamber volume of first molars from cone-beam computed tomography images.

PubMed

Ge, Zhi-pu; Ma, Ruo-han; Li, Gang; Zhang, Ji-zong; Ma, Xu-chen

2015-08-01

To establish a method that can be used for human age estimation on the basis of pulp chamber volume of first molars and to identify whether the method is good enough for age estimation in real human cases. CBCT images of 373 maxillary first molars and 372 mandibular first molars were collected to establish the mathematical model from 190 female and 213 male patients whose age between 12 and 69 years old. The inclusion criteria of the first molars were: no caries, no excessive tooth wear, no dental restorations, no artifacts due to metal restorative materials present in adjacent teeth, and no pulpal calcification. All the CBCT images were acquired with a CBCT unit NewTom VG (Quantitative Radiology, Verona, Italy) and reconstructed with a voxel-size of 0.15mm. The images were subsequently exported as DICOM data sets and imported into an open source 3D image semi-automatic segmenting and voxel-counting software ITK-SNAP 2.4 for the calculation of pulp chamber volumes. A logarithmic regression analysis was conducted with age as dependent variable and pulp chamber volume as independent variables to establish a mathematical model for the human age estimation. To identify the precision and accuracy of the model for human age estimation, another 104 maxillary first molars and 103 mandibular first molars from 55 female and 57 male patients whose age between 12 and 67 years old were collected, too. Mean absolute error and root mean square error between the actual age and estimated age were used to determine the precision and accuracy of the mathematical model. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. A mathematical model was suggested for: AGE=117.691-26.442×ln (pulp chamber volume). The regression was statistically significant (p=0.000<0.01). The coefficient of determination (R(2)) was 0.564. There is a mean absolute error of 8.122 and root mean square error of 5.603 between the actual age and estimated age for all the tested teeth. The pulp chamber volume of first molar is a useful index for the estimation of human age with reasonable precision and accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of groundwater age as a calibration target

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.; Hornberger, G.Z.; Putnam, L.D.; Shapiro, A.M.; Zinn, B.A.

2008-01-01

Groundwater age (or residence time), as estimated on the basis of concentrations of one or more environmental tracers, can provide a useful and independent calibration target for groundwater models. However, concentrations of environmental tracers are affected by the complexities and mixing inherent in groundwater flow through heterogeneous media, especially in the presence of pumping wells. An analysis of flow and age distribution in the Madison aquifer in South Dakota, USA, illustrates the additional benefits and difficulties of using age as a calibration target. Alternative numerical approaches to estimating travel time and age with backward particle tracking are assessed, and the resulting estimates are used to refine estimates of effective porosity and to help assess the adequacy and credibility of the flow model.

An overview of age estimation in forensic anthropology: perspectives and practical considerations.

PubMed

Márquez-Grant, Nicholas

2015-01-01

Information on methods of age estimation in physical anthropology, in particular with regard to age-at-death from human skeletal remains, is widely available in the literature. However, the practicalities and real challenges faced in forensic casework are not always highlighted. To provide a practitioner's perspective, regarding age estimation in forensic anthropology (both in the living as well as the dead), with an emphasis on the types of cases, the value of such work and its challenges and limitations. The paper reviews the current literature on age estimation with a focus on forensic anthropology, but it also brings the author's personal perspective derived from a number of forensic cases. Although much is known about what methods to use, but not always how to apply them, little attention has been given in the literature to the real practicalities faced by forensic anthropologists, for example: the challenges in different types of scenarios; how to report age estimations; responsibilities; and ethical concerns. This paper gathers some of these aspects into one overview which includes the value of such work and the practical challenges, not necessarily with the methods themselves, but also with regard to how these are applied in the different cases where age estimation is required.

So You Think You Look Young? Matching Older Adults' Subjective Ages with Age Estimations Provided by Younger, Middle-Aged, and Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kotter-Gruhn, Dana; Hess, Thomas M.

2012-01-01

Perceived age plays an important role in the context of age identity and social interactions. To examine how accurate individuals are in estimating how old they look and how old others are, younger, middle-aged, and older adults rated photographs of older target persons (for whom we had information about objective and subjective age) in terms of…

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

PubMed Central

Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

2013-01-01

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

Racemization of aspartic acid in root dentin as a tool for age estimation in a Kuwaiti population.

PubMed

Elfawal, Mohamed Amin; Alqattan, Sahib Issa; Ghallab, Noha Ayman

2015-01-01

Estimation of age is one of the most significant tasks in forensic practice. Amino acid racemization is considered one of the most reliable and accurate methods of age estimation and aspartic acid shows a high racemization reaction rate. The present study has investigated the application of aspartic acid racemization in age estimation in a Kuwaiti population using root dentin from a total of 89 upper first premolar teeth. The D/L ratio of aspartic acid was obtained by HPLC technique in a test group of 50 subjects and a linear regression line was established between aspartic acid racemization and age. The correlation coefficient (r) was 0.97, and the standard error of estimation was ±1.26 years. The racemization age "t" of each subject was calculated by applying the following formula: ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] = 0.003181 t + (-0.01591). When the proposed formula "estimated age t = ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] + 0.01591/0.003181" was applied to a validation group of 39 subjects, the range of error was less than one year in 82.1% of the cases and the standard error of estimation was ±1.12. The current work has established a reasonably significant correlation of the D-/L-aspartic acid ratio with age, and proposed an apparently reliable formula for calculating the age in Kuwaiti populations through aspartic acid racemization. Further research is required to find out whether similar findings are applicable to other ethnic populations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Age and gender estimation using Region-SIFT and multi-layered SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyunduk; Lee, Sang-Heon; Sohn, Myoung-Kyu; Hwang, Byunghun

2018-04-01

In this paper, we propose an age and gender estimation framework using the region-SIFT feature and multi-layered SVM classifier. The suggested framework entails three processes. The first step is landmark based face alignment. The second step is the feature extraction step. In this step, we introduce the region-SIFT feature extraction method based on facial landmarks. First, we define sub-regions of the face. We then extract SIFT features from each sub-region. In order to reduce the dimensions of features we employ a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Finally, we classify age and gender using a multi-layered Support Vector Machines (SVM) for efficient classification. Rather than performing gender estimation and age estimation independently, the use of the multi-layered SVM can improve the classification rate by constructing a classifier that estimate the age according to gender. Moreover, we collect a dataset of face images, called by DGIST_C, from the internet. A performance evaluation of proposed method was performed with the FERET database, CACD database, and DGIST_C database. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach classifies age and performs gender estimation very efficiently and accurately.

Digitized morphometric analysis of dental pulp of permanent mandibular second molar for age estimation of Davangere population.

PubMed

Kumar, Nerella Narendra; Panchaksharappa, Mamatha Gowda; Annigeri, Rajeshwari G

2016-04-01

The aim of the present study is to estimate the age of Davangere population by evaluating the pulp to tooth area ratio (PTR) by using digitized intraoral periapical radiographs of permanent mandibular second molar. 400 intraoral periapical radiograph (IOPA) of permanent mandibular 2nd molar of both the sexes aged 14-60 years were used. Digital camera was used to image the radiographs. Images were computed and PTR was calculated by AUTOCAD software. Intra and Inter observer variability was also assessed. Regression analysis was used to estimate the age of an individual by taking PTR as dependent variable. The mean PTR of males and females was 0.10 ± 0.02 and 0.09 ± 0.02 respectively. Negative correlation was observed, when age was compared with PTR {r = -0.441, -0.406 & -0.419 among males, females and total subjects (p < 0.001)}. Regression analysis showed a Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) of 12 years. The Kappa coefficient value for the intra and inter examiner variability was 0.85 & 0.83 respectively. Our results showed that permanent mandibular 2(nd) molar can be taken as an index tooth for estimating the age of the adults using digitized periapical radiograph and AUTOCAD software. Also high differences were observed between estimated and chronological age of 12 years which is not in the acceptable range. But it provides a new window for research in the forensic sciences in estimating the adult age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjørnerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

2009-01-01

Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

1988-01-01

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the most probable age. The statistical variability of the ML-estimated calibration curve is assessed by a Monte Carlo method in which simulated data sets repeatedly are drawn from the distributional specification; calibration parameters are reestimated for each such simulation in order to assess their statistical variability. Several examples are used for illustration. The age of undated soils in a related setting may be estimated from the soil data using the fitted calibration curve. A second simulation to assess age estimate variability is described and applied to the examples. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Radiological age estimation: based on third molar mineralization and eruption in Turkish children and young adults.

PubMed

Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi

2012-11-01

Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation.

Age estimation of archaeological remains using amino acid racemization in dental enamel: a comparison of morphological, biochemical, and known ages-at-death.

PubMed

Griffin, R C; Chamberlain, A T; Hotz, G; Penkman, K E H; Collins, M J

2009-10-01

The poor accuracy of most current methods for estimating age-at-death in adult human skeletal remains is among the key problems facing palaeodemography. In forensic science, this problem has been solved for unburnt remains by the development of a chemical method for age estimation, using amino acid racemization in collagen extracted from dentine. Previous application of racemization methods to archaeological material has proven problematic. This study presents the application to archaeological human remains of a new age estimation method utilizing amino acid racemization in a potentially closed system-the dental enamel. The amino acid composition and extent of racemization in enamel from two Medieval cemeteries (Newcastle Blackgate and Grantham, England) and from a documented age-at-death sample from a 19th century cemetery (Spitalfriedhof St Johann, Switzerland) were determined. Alterations in the amino acid composition were detected in all populations, indicating that diagenetic change had taken place. However, in the Medieval populations, these changes did not appear to have substantially affected the relationship between racemization and age-at-death, with a strong relationship being retained between aspartic acid racemization and the morphological age estimates. In contrast, there was a poor relationship between racemization and age in the post-medieval documented age-at-death population from Switzerland. This appears to be due to leaching of amino acids post-mortem, indicating that enamel is not functioning as a perfectly closed system. Isolation of amino acids from a fraction of enamel which is less susceptible to leaching may improve the success of amino acid racemization for archaeological age estimation.

An evaluation of the precision of fin ray, otolith, and scale age determinations for brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stolarski, J.T.; Hartman, K.J.

2008-01-01

The ages of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are typically estimated using scales despite a lack of research documenting the effectiveness of this technique. The use of scales is often preferred because it is nonlethal and is believed to require less effort than alternative methods. To evaluate the relative effectiveness of different age estimation methodologies for brook trout, we measured the precision and processing times of scale, sagittal otolith, and pectoral fin ray age estimation techniques. Three independent readers, age bias plots, coefficients of variation (CV = 100 x SD/mean), and percent agreement (PA) were used to measure within-reader, among-structure bias and within-structure, among-reader precision. Bias was generally minimal; however, the age estimates derived from scales tended to be lower than those derived from otoliths within older (age > 2) cohorts. Otolith, fin ray, and scale age estimates were within 1 year of each other for 95% of the comparisons. The measures of precision for scales (CV = 6.59; PA = 82.30) and otoliths (CV = 7.45; PA = 81.48) suggest higher agreement between these structures than with fin rays (CV = 11.30; PA = 65.84). The mean per-sample processing times were lower for scale (13.88 min) and otolith techniques (12.23 min) than for fin ray techniques (22.68 min). The comparable processing times of scales and otoliths contradict popular belief and are probably a result of the high proportion of regenerated scales within samples and the ability to infer age from whole (as opposed to sectioned) otoliths. This research suggests that while scales produce age estimates rivaling those of otoliths for younger (age > 3) cohorts, they may be biased within older cohorts and therefore should be used with caution. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Tree age, disturbance history, and carbon stocks and fluxes in subalpine Rocky Mountain forests

Treesearch

J.B. Bradford; R.A. Birdsey; L.A. Joyce; M.G. Ryan

2008-01-01

Forest carbon stocks and fluxes vary with forest age, and relationships with forest age are often used to estimate fluxes for regional or national carbon inventories. Two methods are commonly used to estimate forest age: observed tree age or time since a known disturbance. To clarify the relationships between tree age, time since disturbance and forest carbon storage...

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Use of claims data to estimate annual cervical cancer screening percentages in Portland metropolitan area, Oregon.

PubMed

Abdullah, Nasreen; Laing, Robert S; Hariri, Susan; Young, Collette M; Schafer, Sean

2016-04-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine should reduce cervical dysplasia before cervical cancer. However, dysplasia diagnosis is screening-dependent. Accurate screening estimates are needed. To estimate the percentage of women in a geographic population that has had cervical cancer screening. We analyzed claims data for (Papanicolau) Pap tests from 2008-2012 to estimate the percentage of insured women aged 18-39 years screened. We estimated screening in uninsured women by dividing the percentage of insured Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey respondents reporting previous-year testing by the percentage of uninsured respondents reporting previous-year testing, and multiplying this ratio by claims-based estimates of insured women with previous-year screening. We calculated a simple weighted average of the two estimates to estimate overall screening percentage. We estimated credible intervals using Monte-Carlo simulations. During 2008-2012, an annual average of 29.6% of women aged 18-39 years were screened. Screening increased from 2008 to 2009 in all age groups. During 2009-2012, the screening percentages decreased for all groups, but declined most in women aged 18-20 years, from 21.5% to 5.4%. Within age groups, compared to 2009, credible intervals did not overlap during 2011 (except age group 21-29 years) and 2012, and credible intervals in the 18-20 year group did not overlap with older groups in any year. This introduces a novel method to estimate population-level cervical cancer screening. Overall, percentage of women screened in Portland, Oregon fell following changes in screening recommendations released in 2009 and later modified in 2012. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observational and ecological studies of dietary advanced glycation end products in national diets and Alzheimer's disease incidence and prevalence.

PubMed

Perrone, Lorena; Grant, William B

2015-01-01

Considerable evidence indicates that diet is an important risk-modifying factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Evidence is also mounting that dietary advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are important risk factors for AD. This study strives to determine whether estimated dietary AGEs estimated from national diets and epidemiological studies are associated with increased AD incidence. We estimated values of dietary AGEs using values in a published paper. We estimated intake of dietary AGEs from the Washington Heights-Inwood Community Aging Project (WHICAP) 1992 and 1999 cohort studies, which investigated how the Mediterranean diet (MeDi) affected AD incidence. Further, AD prevalence data came from three ecological studies and included data from 11 countries for 1977-1993, seven developing countries for 1995-2005, and Japan for 1985-2008. The analysis used dietary AGE values from 20 years before the AD prevalence data. Meat was always the food with the largest amount of AGEs. Other foods with significant AGEs included fish, cheese, vegetables, and vegetable oil. High MeDi adherence results in lower meat and dairy intake, which possess high AGE content. By using two different models to extrapolate dietary AGE intake in the WHICAP 1992 and 1999 cohort studies, we showed that reduced dietary AGE significantly correlates with reduced AD incidence. For the ecological studies, estimates of dietary AGEs in the national diets corresponded well with AD prevalence data even though the cooking methods were not well known. Dietary AGEs appear to be important risk factors for AD.

Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

2009-07-01

Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

Estimates of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to population-based mammography screening in South Australia after adjustment for lead time effects.

PubMed

Beckmann, Kerri; Duffy, Stephen W; Lynch, John; Hiller, Janet; Farshid, Gelareh; Roder, David

2015-09-01

To estimate over-diagnosis due to population-based mammography screening using a lead time adjustment approach, with lead time measures based on symptomatic cancers only. Women aged 40-84 in 1989-2009 in South Australia eligible for mammography screening. Numbers of observed and expected breast cancer cases were compared, after adjustment for lead time. Lead time effects were modelled using age-specific estimates of lead time (derived from interval cancer rates and predicted background incidence, using maximum likelihood methods) and screening sensitivity, projected background breast cancer incidence rates (in the absence of screening), and proportions screened, by age and calendar year. Lead time estimates were 12, 26, 43 and 53 months, for women aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 respectively. Background incidence rates were estimated to have increased by 0.9% and 1.2% per year for invasive and all breast cancer. Over-diagnosis among women aged 40-84 was estimated at 7.9% (0.1-12.0%) for invasive cases and 12.0% (5.7-15.4%) when including ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS). We estimated 8% over-diagnosis for invasive breast cancer and 12% inclusive of DCIS cancers due to mammography screening among women aged 40-84. These estimates may overstate the extent of over-diagnosis if the increasing prevalence of breast cancer risk factors has led to higher background incidence than projected. © The Author(s) 2015.

Estimation of Stratospheric Age Spectrum from Chemical Tracers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Polansky, Brian

2005-01-01

We have developed a technique to diagnose the stratospheric age spectrum and estimate the mean age of air using the distributions of at least four constituents with different photochemical lifetimes. We demonstrate that the technique works using a 3D CTM and then apply the technique to UMS CLAES January 1993 observations of CFC11, CFC12, CH4 and N2O. Our results are generally in agreement with mean age of air estimates from the chemical model and from observations of SF6 and CO2; however, the mean age estimates show an intrusion of very young tropical air into the mid-latitude stratosphere. This feature is consistent with mixing of high N20 air out of the tropics during the westerly phase of the QBO.

Estimated Participation and Hours in Early Care and Education by Type of Arrangement and Income at Ages 2 to 4 in 2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnett, Steve; Nores, Milagros

2012-01-01

This working paper estimates participation in early childhood education (ECE) programs by child's age, program setting, family income level, and child's household language. To produce the best possible estimates of participation, the authors combined information from multiple data sets. In 2010, approximately 6.6 million between the ages of 2 and…

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating a child's age from an image using whole body proportions.

PubMed

Lucas, Teghan; Henneberg, Maciej

2017-09-01

The use and distribution of child pornography is an increasing problem. Forensic anthropologists are often asked to estimate a child's age from a photograph. Previous studies have attempted to estimate the age of children from photographs using ratios of the face. Here, we propose to include body measurement ratios into age estimates. A total of 1603 boys and 1833 girls aged 5-16 years were measured over a 10-year period. They are 'Cape Coloured' children from South Africa. Their age was regressed on ratios derived from anthropometric measurements of the head as well as the body. Multiple regression equations including four ratios for each sex (head height to shoulder and hip width, knee width, leg length and trunk length) have a standard error of 1.6-1.7 years. The error is of the same order as variation of differences between biological and chronological ages of the children. Thus, the error cannot be minimised any further as it is a direct reflection of a naturally occurring phenomenon.

Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.

1988-01-01

It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

A method to estimate stellar ages from kinematical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida-Fernandes, F.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.

2018-05-01

We present a method to build a probability density function (PDF) for the age of a star based on its peculiar velocities U, V, and W and its orbital eccentricity. The sample used in this work comes from the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) that contains the spatial velocities, orbital eccentricities, and isochronal ages for about 14 000 stars. Using the GCS stars, we fitted the parameters that describe the relations between the distributions of kinematical properties and age. This parametrization allows us to obtain an age probability from the kinematical data. From this age PDF, we estimate an individual average age for the star using the most likely age and the expected age. We have obtained the stellar age PDF for the age of 9102 stars from the GCS and have shown that the distribution of individual ages derived from our method is in good agreement with the distribution of isochronal ages. We also observe a decline in the mean metallicity with our ages for stars younger than 7 Gyr, similar to the one observed for isochronal ages. This method can be useful for the estimation of rough stellar ages for those stars that fall in areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where isochrones are tightly crowded. As an example of this method, we estimate the age of Trappist-1, which is a M8V star, obtaining the age of t(UVW) = 12.50(+0.29 - 6.23) Gyr.

Molecular pathology and age estimation.

PubMed

Meissner, Christoph; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

2010-12-15

Over the course of our lifetime a stochastic process leads to gradual alterations of biomolecules on the molecular level, a process that is called ageing. Important changes are observed on the DNA-level as well as on the protein level and are the cause and/or consequence of our 'molecular clock', influenced by genetic as well as environmental parameters. These alterations on the molecular level may aid in forensic medicine to estimate the age of a living person, a dead body or even skeletal remains for identification purposes. Four such important alterations have become the focus of molecular age estimation in the forensic community over the last two decades. The age-dependent accumulation of the 4977bp deletion of mitochondrial DNA and the attrition of telomeres along with ageing are two important processes at the DNA-level. Among a variety of protein alterations, the racemisation of aspartic acid and advanced glycation endproducs have already been tested for forensic applications. At the moment the racemisation of aspartic acid represents the pinnacle of molecular age estimation for three reasons: an excellent standardization of sampling and methods, an evaluation of different variables in many published studies and highest accuracy of results. The three other mentioned alterations often lack standardized procedures, published data are sparse and often have the character of pilot studies. Nevertheless it is important to evaluate molecular methods for their suitability in forensic age estimation, because supplementary methods will help to extend and refine accuracy and reliability of such estimates. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

PubMed

Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

2010-11-01

Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

Age trends in rates of substance use disorders across ages 18-90: Differences by gender and race/ethnicity.

PubMed

Vasilenko, Sara A; Evans-Polce, Rebecca J; Lanza, Stephanie T

2017-11-01

Although research has documented age differences in substance use, less is known about how prevalence of substance use disorders (SUDs) vary across age and differ by gender and race/ethnicity. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs) were estimated on data from the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (NESARC III; N=36,309), a nationally representative survey of the adult population. The sample was 44% male; 53% White, 21% Black, 19% Hispanic/Latino, 6% other race/ethnicity. Prevalence of four SUDs (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and opioid use disorders) were flexibly estimated across ages 18-90 by gender and race/ethnicity. Estimated SUD prevalences were generally higher for men compared to women at most ages until the 70s. However, disparities by race/ethnicity varied with age, such that for most SUDs, estimated prevalences were higher for White participants at younger ages and Black participants at older ages. Results suggest relatively constant disparities by gender across age, and a crossover effect for Black and White participants. Findings demonstrate that Black individuals in midlife may be an important target of intervention programs for some substances. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precision and accuracy of commonly used dental age estimation charts for the New Zealand population.

PubMed

Baylis, Stephanie; Bassed, Richard

2017-08-01

Little research has been undertaken for the New Zealand population in the field of dental age estimation. This research to date indicates there are differences in dental developmental rates between the New Zealand population and other global population groups, and within the New Zealand population itself. Dental age estimation methods range from dental development charts to complex biometric analysis. Dental development charts are not the most accurate method of dental age estimation, but are time saving in their use. They are an excellent screening tool, particularly for post-mortem identification purposes, and for assessing variation from population norms in living individuals. The aim of this study was to test the precision and accuracy of three dental development charts (Schour and Massler, Blenkin and Taylor, and the London Atlas), used to estimate dental age of a sample of New Zealand juveniles between the ages of 5 and 18 years old (n=875). Percentage 'best fit' to correct age category and to expected chart stage were calculated to determine which chart was the most precise for the sample. Chronological ages were compared to estimated dental ages using a two-tailed paired t-test (P<0.05) for each of the three methods. The mean differences between CA and DA were calculated to determine bias and the absolute mean differences were calculated to indicate accuracy. The results of this study show that while accuracy and precision were low for all charts tested against the New Zealand population sample, the Blenkin and Taylor Australian charts performed best overall. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

PubMed

García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

2016-02-01

Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Egg flotation estimates nest age for Pacific and Red-throated Loons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizzolo, Daniel; Schmutz, Joel A.

2007-01-01

We used Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica) and Red-throated Loon (G. stellata) nests with known ages to gauge the efficacy of egg flotation for determining nest age in coastal Alaska. Egg flotation accurately estimated nest age for both species; the mean ± 1SD difference between known age and age determined with egg flotation was - 0.05 ± 2.00 d and -0.02 ± 1.63 d for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, respectively. Day of nest initiation did not influence the relationship between known nest age and nest age estimated with egg flotation, indicating incubation period was not shortened in nests initiated later in the season. Additionally, we found no difference in the ability of egg flotation to estimate nest age between two widely dispersed study sites for Pacific Loons, and only a small difference between two of three widely dispersed study sites for Red-throated Loons. Thus, our described relationships between egg flotation categories and nest age should be broadly applicable for these holarctic species. We conclude that for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, egg flotation is a useful technique for determining nest age in the field to better monitor nest fate, and to quantify nest age effects on nest daily survival rate.

Walleye age estimation using otoliths and dorsal spines: Preparation techniques and sampling guidelines based on sex and total length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Isermann, Daniel A.; Koenigs, Ryan P.

2017-01-01

We used dorsal spines and otoliths from 735 Walleye Sander vitreus collected from 35 Wisconsin water bodies to evaluate whether 1) otolith and dorsal spine cross sections provided age estimates similar to simpler methods of preparation (e.g., whole otoliths and dorsal spines, cracked otoliths); and 2) between-reader precision and differences between spine and otolith ages varied in relation to total length (TL), sex, and growth rate. Ages estimated from structures prepared using simpler techniques were generally similar to ages estimated using thin sections of dorsal spines and otoliths, suggesting that, in some instances, much of the additional processing time and specialized equipment associated with thin sectioning could be avoided. Overall, between-reader precision was higher for sectioned otoliths (mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 3.28%; standard error [SE] = 0.33%) than for sectioned dorsal spines (mean CV = 9.20%; SE = 0.56%). When using sectioned otoliths for age assignment, between-reader precision did not vary between sexes or growth categories (i.e., fast, moderate, slow), but between-reader precision was higher for females than males when using sectioned dorsal spines. Dorsal spines were generally effective at replicating otolith ages for male Walleye <450 mm TL and female Walleye <600 mm TL, suggesting that dorsal spines can be used to estimate ages for male Walleye <450 mm TL and female Walleye <600 mm TL. If sex is unknown, we suggest dorsal spines be used to estimate ages for Walleye <450 mm TL, but that otoliths be used for fish >450 mm TL. Our results provide useful guidance on structure and preparation technique selection for Walleye age estimation, thereby allowing biologists to develop sampling guidelines that could be implemented using information that is always (TL) or often (sex) available at the time of fish collection.

Applicability of Greulich and Pyle method for age assessment in forensic practice on an Italian sample.

PubMed

Tisè, Marco; Mazzarini, Laura; Fabrizzi, Giancarlo; Ferrante, Luigi; Giorgetti, Raffaele; Tagliabracci, Adriano

2011-05-01

The main importance in age estimation lies in the assessment of criminal liability and protection of unaccompanied minor immigrants, when their age is unknown. Under Italian law, persons are not criminally responsible before they reach the age of 14. The age of 18 is important when deciding whether juvenile or adult law must be applied. In the case of unaccompanied minors, it is important to assess age in order to establish special protective measures, and correct age estimation may prevent a person over 18 from benefiting from measures reserved for minors. Since the Greulich and Pyle method is one of the most frequently used in age estimation, the aim of this study was to assess the reproducibility and accuracy of the method on a large Italian sample of teenagers, to ascertain the applicability of the Atlas at the critical age thresholds of 14 and 18 years. This retrospective study examined posteroanterior X-ray projections of hand and wrist from 484 Italian-Caucasian young people (125 females, 359 males) between 11 and 19 years old. All radiographic images were taken from trauma patients hospitalized in the Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Ospedali Riuniti of Ancona (Italy) between 2006 and 2007. Two physicians analyzed all radiographic images separately. The blind method was used. In the case of an estimated age of 14 years old, the true age ranged from 12.2 to 15.9 years (median, 14.3 years, interquartile range, 1.0 years) for males, and 12.6 to 15.7 years (median, 14.2 years, interquartile range, 1.7 years) for females. In the case of an estimated age of 18 years, the true age ranged from 15.6 to 19.7 years (median, 17.7 years, interquartile range, 1.4 years) for males, and from 16.2 to 20.0 years (median, 18.7 years, interquartile range, 1.8 years) for females. Our study shows that although the GPM is a reproducible and repeatable method, there is a wide margin of error in the estimation of chronological age, mainly in the critical estimated ages of 14 and 18 years old in both males and females.

Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

2008-01-01

Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

Anchoring the Population II Distance Scale: Accurate Ages for Globular Clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaboyer, Brian C.; Chaboyer, Brian C.; Carney, Bruce W.; Latham, David W.; Dunca, Douglas; Grand, Terry; Layden, Andy; Sarajedini, Ataollah; McWilliam, Andrew; Shao, Michael

2004-01-01

The metal-poor stars in the halo of the Milky Way galaxy were among the first objects formed in our Galaxy. These Population II stars are the oldest objects in the universe whose ages can be accurately determined. Age determinations for these stars allow us to set a firm lower limit, to the age of the universe and to probe the early formation history of the Milky Way. The age of the universe determined from studies of Population II stars may be compared to the expansion age of the universe and used to constrain cosmological models. The largest uncertainty in estimates for the ages of stars in our halo is due to the uncertainty in the distance scale to Population II objects. We propose to obtain accurate parallaxes to a number of Population II objects (globular clusters and field stars in the halo) resulting in a significant improvement in the Population II distance scale and greatly reducing the uncertainty in the estimated ages of the oldest stars in our galaxy. At the present time, the oldest stars are estimated to be 12.8 Gyr old, with an uncertainty of approx. 15%. The SIM observations obtained by this key project, combined with the supporting theoretical research and ground based observations outlined in this proposal will reduce the estimated uncertainty in the age estimates to 5%).

The usefulness of Belgian formulae in third molar-based age assessment of Indians.

PubMed

Bhowmik, Biyas; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

2013-03-10

The third molars are one of few useful predictors for assessing the degree of maturity in adolescence and young adulthood. It has application in age estimation in the age group of 14-23 years, in general, and in juvenile/adult status prediction, in particular. Using a 10-stage grading of third molars, Gunst et al. developed regression formulae on a large sample of Belgians (n=2513) for estimating age. Their research has been recommended as a 'reference study' in age estimation guidelines. The present study has ventured to determine if estimating age in Indians using the Belgian formulae produced results comparable to those reported in the Belgian study; in addition, this study attempts to determine if the same formulae predicted juvenile/adult status (age

What is the number of child prostitutes in Thailand?

PubMed

Archavanitkul, K

1999-01-01

This study estimates the number of child prostitutes (CPs) in Thailand. It is estimated by Mahidol University that CPs amounted to about 36,000 children out of 150,000-200,000 prostitutes. The Center for the Protection of Children's Rights estimates that Thai and foreign child prostitutes aged under 11 years, in 1996, amounted to about 800,000 out of a total 2 million prostitutes. An estimated 20,000 establishments employed about 700,000 sex workers. About 30,000 underground sex establishments registered about 1.3 million sex workers. The Ministry of Public Health estimates that CPs amounted to about 16,276 in 1995. The 3 different estimates vary widely. This study estimates the number of CPs aged under 18 years of age, differentiates between Thai and foreign prostitutes, and accounts for those who entered prostitution prior to the age of 18 years. 16% of the total number of prostitutes may be Thai CPs; 50% may have begun their work under the age of 18. About 30% of total foreign prostitutes may be children; 75% may have entered prostitution as minors. A 1997 census of establishments indicates 7816 sex establishments. Based on field research on underestimation, it is estimated that 18,248 were foreign sex workers in Thailand in 1997, or 20% of the total of 90,915 sex workers. 90% of the foreign sex workers were estimated to be from the Mekong subregion of Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, and Viet Nam. An estimated 4927 (30%) were CPs. During 1990-97, an estimated minimum 80,000 children and women from the Mekong subregion entered the sex trade. An estimated 18,000 were Thai CPs.

Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in western Chinese population.

PubMed

Li, Guo; Ren, Jiayin; Zhao, Shuping; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Na; Wu, Wanhong; Yuan, Shanshan; Wang, Hu

2012-06-10

The purpose of this study is to provide reference data about estimating dental age from third molars of the western Chinese population for comparing with other populations and being applied to the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents. A total of 2078 digital panoramic radiographs of 989 male and 1089 female Chinese subjects aged between 5 and 23 years were examined. The mineralization status of the third molars was assessed using the formation stages described by Demirjian et al. with two modifications. The results showed that the development of third molars in the western Chinese population was likely to begin at age 5 in both males and females. The third molars 28 and 48 showed significantly higher frequency in females than in males. The third molars 18 in the stage 1, 38 in the stages 1, A and G, and 48 in the stage H showed significantly older average age in females than in males. The Demirjian's stages C and D could be used as a reference stage to determine dichotomously whether a western Chinese is more likely to be under or above age 14 or 16, respectively. This study provided reference data for the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents by the mineralization stages of the third molar. Apart from forensic age determination in living subjects, the presented reference data can also be used for age estimations of unidentified corpses and skeletons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mixture modeling of multi-component data sets with application to ion-probe zircon ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sambridge, M. S.; Compston, W.

1994-12-01

A method is presented for detecting multiple components in a population of analytical observations for zircon and other ages. The procedure uses an approach known as mixture modeling, in order to estimate the most likely ages, proportions and number of distinct components in a given data set. Particular attention is paid to estimating errors in the estimated ages and proportions. At each stage of the procedure several alternative numerical approaches are suggested, each having their own advantages in terms of efficency and accuracy. The methodology is tested on synthetic data sets simulating two or more mixed populations of zircon ages. In this case true ages and proportions of each population are known and compare well with the results of the new procedure. Two examples are presented of its use with sets of SHRIMP U-238 - Pb-206 zircon ages from Palaeozoic rocks. A published data set for altered zircons from bentonite at Meishucun, South China, previously treated as a single-component population after screening for gross alteration effects, can be resolved into two components by the new procedure and their ages, proportions and standard errors estimated. The older component, at 530 +/- 5 Ma (2 sigma), is our best current estimate for the age of the bentonite. Mixture modeling of a data set for unaltered zircons from a tonalite elsewhere defines the magmatic U-238 - Pb-206 age at high precision (2 sigma +/- 1.5 Ma), but one-quarter of the 41 analyses detect hidden and significantly older cores.

A radiographic study estimating age of mandibular third molars by periodontal ligament visibility.

PubMed

Chaudhary, M A; Liversidge, H M

2017-12-01

Visibility of the periodontal ligament of mandibular third molars (M3) has been suggested as a method to estimate age. To assess the accuracy of this method and compare the visibility of the periodontal ligament in the left M3 with the right M3. The sample was archived panoramic dental radiographs of 163 individuals (75 males, 88 females, age 16-53 years) with mature M3's. Reliability was assessed using Kappa. Accuracy was assessed by subtracting chronological age from estimated age for males and females. Stages were cross-tabulated against age stages younger than and at least 18 and 21 years of age. Stages were compared in the left M3 and right M3. Analysis showed excellent intra-observer reliability. Mean difference between estimated and chronological ages was 7.21 years (SD 5.16) for left M3 and 7.69 (SD 6.08) for right M3 in males and 6.87 (SD 5.83) for left M3 and 8.61 (SD 6.58) for right M3 in females. Minimum ages of stages 0 to 2 were younger than previously reported, despite a small sample of individuals younger than 18. The left and right M3 stage differed in 46% of the 85 individuals with readings from both side and estimated age differed from -10.5 to 12.2 years between left and right. Accuracy of this method was between 6 and 8 years with an error of 5 to 6 years. The number of individuals with mature M3 apices younger than 18 years was small. The stage of visibility of the periodontal ligament differed between left and right in almost half of our sample with both teeth present. Our findings question the use of this method to estimate age or to discriminate between age younger and at least 18 years.

Variability in early height growth rate of forest trees: implications for retrospective studies of stand dynamics

Treesearch

Brain J. Palik; Kurt S. Pregitzer

1995-01-01

Retrospective studies of forest stand dynamics may rely on estimates of tree ages. In some of these studies, trees are aged near the stem base, while in other studies trees may be aged at breast height. An age correction may be added to breast-height ages in an attempt to account for average time to reach breast height and thus provide better estimates of total ages....

Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere's Stratagem.

PubMed

Attiguppe, Prabhakar Ramasetty; Yavagal, Chandrashekar; Maganti, Rekhamani; Mythri, P

2016-01-01

Age is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of a person, especially in children. Age estimation plays an important part in treatment planning, forensic dentistry, legal issues, and paleodemographic research. The present study was an attempt to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population by using Cameriere's India specific formula. This was a retrospective observational study to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population. A total of 150 panoramic radiographs of patients aged between 6 and 15 years, including both sexes, were selected. Age was calculated by measuring open apices of seven right or left mandibular teeth using Adobe Photoshop software. Statistical analysis was performed to derive a regression equation for estimation of age, which showed that, of the variables X 1 , X 2 , X 3 , X 4 , X 5 , X 6 , X 7 , s, N 0 , the variables N 0 and X 4 were statistically noteworthy. Hence, these two variables were used to derive the linear regression formula: Age = 10.522 + 0.712(N 0 ) - 5.040(X 4 ). The model was found to be statistically significant, F(2, 147) = 207.96, p < 0.001, and accounted for approximately 74% of the variance of age (R 2 = 0.739, adjusted R 2 = 0.735). Cameriere's method can be used for age assessment in children for forensic as well as legal contexts and based on these variables a reliable age estimation equation could be proposed specifically for Davangere population. Attiguppe PR, Yavagal C, Maganti R, Mythri P. Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere's Stratagem. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2016;9(4):330-334.

Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere’s Stratagem

PubMed Central

Attiguppe, Prabhakar Ramasetty; Yavagal, Chandrashekar; Mythri, P

2016-01-01

Aim Age is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of a person, especially in children. Age estimation plays an important part in treatment planning, forensic dentistry, legal issues, and paleodemographic research. The present study was an attempt to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population by using Cameriere’s India specific formula. Materials and methods This was a retrospective observational study to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population. A total of 150 panoramic radiographs of patients aged between 6 and 15 years, including both sexes, were selected. Age was calculated by measuring open apices of seven right or left mandibular teeth using Adobe Photoshop software. Results Statistical analysis was performed to derive a regression equation for estimation of age, which showed that, of the variables X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6, X7, s, N0, the variables N0 and X4 were statistically noteworthy. Hence, these two variables were used to derive the linear regression formula: Age = 10.522 + 0.712(N0) - 5.040(X4). The model was found to be statistically significant, F(2, 147) = 207.96, p < 0.001, and accounted for approximately 74% of the variance of age (R2 = 0.739, adjusted R2 = 0.735). Conclusion Cameriere’s method can be used for age assessment in children for forensic as well as legal contexts and based on these variables a reliable age estimation equation could be proposed specifically for Davangere population. How to cite this article Attiguppe PR, Yavagal C, Maganti R, Mythri P. Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere’s Stratagem. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2016;9(4):330-334. PMID:28127165

Incidence of breast cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis after the initiation of a population-based mammography screening program.

PubMed

Coldman, Andrew; Phillips, Norm

2013-07-09

There has been growing interest in the overdiagnosis of breast cancer as a result of mammography screening. We report incidence rates in British Columbia before and after the initiation of population screening and provide estimates of overdiagnosis. We obtained the numbers of breast cancer diagnoses from the BC Cancer Registry and screening histories from the Screening Mammography Program of BC for women aged 30-89 years between 1970 and 2009. We calculated age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ. We compared these rates by age, calendar period and screening participation. We obtained 2 estimates of overdiagnosis from cumulative cancer rates among women between the ages of 40 and 89 years: the first estimate compared participants with nonparticipants; the second estimate compared observed and predicted population rates. We calculated participation-based estimates of overdiagnosis to be 5.4% for invasive disease alone and 17.3% when ductal carcinoma in situ was included. The corresponding population-based estimates were -0.7% and 6.7%. Participants had higher rates of invasive cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ than nonparticipants but lower rates after screening stopped. Population incidence rates for invasive cancer increased after 1980; by 2009, they had returned to levels similar to those of the 1970s among women under 60 years of age but remained elevated among women 60-79 years old. Rates of ductal carcinoma in situ increased in all age groups. The extent of overdiagnosis of invasive cancer in our study population was modest and primarily occurred among women over the age of 60 years. However, overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ was elevated for all age groups. The estimation of overdiagnosis from observational data is complex and subject to many influences. The use of mammography screening in older women has an increased risk of overdiagnosis, which should be considered in screening decisions.

A critique of age estimation using attrition as the sole indicator.

PubMed

Ball, J

2002-12-01

The age determination of skeletal remains has been carried out using anthropological examination of the remaining bones and dentition. The aging of the dentition is based on attrition which, if physiological will correlate with age. Occasionally the only material available is a single tooth or a few teeth, or in the case of a living person, teeth in situ. In certain cases microscopic examination of the teeth may not be possible and the age estimation is then often determined by the degree of attrition associated with the tooth. In more recent times the causes of attrition have involved other factors such as bruxism, diet, environment and medication. The weaknesses and limitations of age estimation by examination of dental attrition as the sole indicator of age are highlighted.

Assessing age in the desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii: Testing skeletochronology with individuals of known age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, A.J.; Zug, G.R.; Medica, P.A.; Spotila, J.R.

2008-01-01

Eight desert tortoises Gopherus agassizii from a long-term mark-recapture study in the Mojave Desert, Nevada, USA, afforded an opportunity to examine the accuracy of skeletochronological age estimation on tortoises from a seasonal, yet environmentally erratic environment. These 8 tortoises were marked as hatchlings or within the first 2 yr of life, and their carcasses were salvaged from predator kills. Using d blind protocol, 2 skeletochronological protocols (correction-factor and ranking) provided age estimates for a set of 4 bony elements (humerus, scapula, femur, ilium) from these tortoises of known age. The age at death of the tortoises ranged from 15 to 50 yr. The most accurate protocol - ranking using the growth layers within each of the 4 elements - provided estimates from 21 to 47 yr, with the highest accuracy from the ilia. The results indicate that skeletochronological age estimation provides a reasonably accurate method for assessing the age at death of desert tortoises and, if used with a large sample of individuals, will provide a valuable tool for examining age-related mortality parameters in desert tortoise and likely in other gopher tortoises (Gopherus). ?? Inter-Research 2008.

Radiologic assessment of third molar tooth and spheno-occipital synchondrosis for age estimation: a multiple regression analysis study.

PubMed

Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan

2016-05-01

For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P < 0.001) and also between age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P < 0.001). Based on the results obtained, an age determination formula using these scores was established.

[Forensic age estimation in juveniles and young adults: Reducing the range of scatter in age diagnosis by combining different methods].

PubMed

Schmidt, Sven; Schramm, Danilo; Ribbecke, Sebastian; Schulz, Ronald; Wittschieber, Daniel; Olze, Andreas; Vieth, Volker; Ramsthaler, H Frank; Pfischel, Klaus; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas

2016-01-01

The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice.

A New Formulation of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, P. A.; Daniel, J. S.; Waugh, D. W.; Nash, E. R.

2007-01-01

Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show and discuss a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. Using this EESC formulation, we estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties in the estimated time of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air, and the assumption that the mean age-of-air and fractional release values are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be accelerated from 2041 to 2031.

Dental age estimation in the living after completion of third molar mineralization: new data for Gustafson's criteria.

PubMed

Timme, M; Timme, W H; Olze, A; Ottow, C; Ribbecke, S; Pfeiffer, H; Dettmeyer, R; Schmeling, A

2017-03-01

There is a need for dental age estimation methods after completion of the third molar mineralization. Degenerative dental characteristics appear to be suitable for forensic age diagnostics beyond the 18th year of life. In 2012, Olze et al. investigated the criteria studied by Gustafson using orthopantomograms. The objective of this study was to prove the applicability and reliability of this method with a large cohort and a wide age range, including older individuals. For this purpose, 2346 orthopantomograms of 1167 female and 1179 male Germans aged 15 to 70 years were reviewed. The characteristics of secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition were evaluated in all the mandibular premolars. The correlation of the individual characteristics with the chronological age was examined by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, in which the chronological age formed the dependent variable. Following those results, R 2 values amounted to 0.73 to 0.8; the standard error of estimate was 6.8 to 8.2 years. Fundamentally, the recommendation for conducting age estimations in the living by these methods can be shared. The values for the quality of the regression are, however, not precise enough for a reliable age estimation around regular retirement date ages. More precise regression formulae for the age group of 15 to 40 years of life are separately presented in this study. Further research should investigate the influence of ethnicity, dietary habits and modern health care on the degenerative characteristics in question.

Accuracy of egg flotation throughout incubation to determine embryo age and incubation day in waterbird nests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.

2010-01-01

Floating bird eggs to estimate their age is a widely used technique, but few studies have examined its accuracy throughout incubation. We assessed egg flotation for estimating hatch date, day of incubation, and the embryo's developmental age in eggs of the American Avocet (Recurvirostra americana), Black-necked Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus), and Forster's Tern (Sterna forsteri). Predicted hatch dates based on egg flotation during our first visit to a nest were highly correlated with actual hatch dates (r = 0.99) and accurate within 2.3 ± 1.7 (SD) days. Age estimates based on flotation were correlated with both day of incubation (r = 0.96) and the embryo's developmental age (r = 0.86) and accurate within 1.3 ± 1.6 days and 1.9 ± 1.6 days, respectively. However, the technique's accuracy varied substantially throughout incubation. Flotation overestimated the embryo's developmental age between 3 and 9 days, underestimated age between 12 and 21 days, and was most accurate between 0 and 3 days and 9 and 12 days. Age estimates based on egg flotation were generally accurate within 3 days until day 15 but later in incubation were biased progressively lower. Egg flotation was inaccurate and overestimated embryo age in abandoned nests (mean error: 7.5 ± 6.0 days). The embryo's developmental age and day of incubation were highly correlated (r = 0.94), differed by 2.1 ± 1.6 days, and resulted in similar assessments of the egg-flotation technique. Floating every egg in the clutch and refloating eggs at subsequent visits to a nest can refine age estimates.

Accuracy of egg flotation throughout incubation to determine embryo age and incubation day in water bird nests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.

2010-01-01

Floating bird eggs to estimate their age is a widely used technique, but few studies have examined its accuracy throughout incubation. We assessed egg flotation for estimating hatch date, day of incubation, and the embryo's developmental age in eggs of the American Avocet (Recurvirostra americana), Black-necked Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus), and Forster's Tern (Sterna forsteri). Predicted hatch dates based on egg flotation during our first visit to a nest were highly correlated with actual hatch dates (r = 0.99) and accurate within 2.3 ?? 1.7 (SD) days. Age estimates based on flotation were correlated with both day of incubation (r = 0.96) and the embryo's developmental age (r = 0.86) and accurate within 1.3 ?? 1.6 days and 1.9 ?? 1.6 days, respectively. However, the technique's accuracy varied substantially throughout incubation. Flotation overestimated the embryo's developmental age between 3 and 9 days, underestimated age between 12 and 21 days, and was most accurate between 0 and 3 days and 9 and 12 days. Age estimates based on egg flotation were generally accurate within 3 days until day 15 but later in incubation were biased progressively lower. Egg flotation was inaccurate and overestimated embryo age in abandoned nests (mean error: 7.5 ?? 6.0 days). The embryo's developmental age and day of incubation were highly correlated (r = 0.94), differed by 2.1 ?? 1.6 days, and resulted in similar assessments of the egg-flotation technique. Floating every egg in the clutch and refloating eggs at subsequent visits to a nest can refine age estimates. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2010.

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Block Constraints in Age-Period-Cohort Models with Unequal-Width Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Liying; Hodges, James S.

2016-01-01

Age-period-cohort (APC) models are designed to estimate the independent effects of age, time periods, and cohort membership. However, APC models suffer from an identification problem: There are no unique estimates of the independent effects that fit the data best because of the exact linear dependency among age, period, and cohort. Among methods…

Optimum Selection Age for Wood Density in Loblolly Pine

Treesearch

D.P. Gwaze; K.J. Harding; R.C. Purnell; Floyd E. Brigwater

2002-01-01

Genetic and phenotypic parameters for core wood density of Pinus taeda L. were estimated for ages ranging from 5 to 25 years at two sites in southern United States. Heritability estimates on an individual-tree basis for core density were lower than expected (0.20-0.31). Age-age genetic correlations were higher than phenotypic correlations,...

Forensic age estimation by morphometric analysis of the manubrium from 3D MR images.

PubMed

Martínez Vera, Naira P; Höller, Johannes; Widek, Thomas; Neumayer, Bernhard; Ehammer, Thomas; Urschler, Martin

2017-08-01

Forensic age estimation research based on skeletal structures focuses on patterns of growth and development using different bones. In this work, our aim was to study growth-related evolution of the manubrium in living adolescents and young adults using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which is an image acquisition modality that does not involve ionizing radiation. In a first step, individual manubrium and subject features were correlated with age, which confirmed a statistically significant change of manubrium volume (M vol :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.50) and surface area (M sur :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.53) for the studied age range. Additionally, shapes of the manubria were for the first time investigated using principal component analysis. The decomposition of the data in principal components allowed to analyse the contribution of each component to total shape variation. With 13 principal components, ∼96% of shape variation could be described (M shp :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.60). Multiple linear regression analysis modelled the relationship between the statistically best correlated variables and age. Models including manubrium shape, volume or surface area divided by the height of the subject (Y∼M shp M sur /S h :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.71; Y∼M shp M vol /S h :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.72) presented a standard error of estimate of two years. In order to estimate the accuracy of these two manubrium-based age estimation models, cross validation experiments predicting age on held-out test sets were performed. Median absolute difference of predicted and known chronological age was 1.18 years for the best performing model (Y∼M shp M sur /S h :p<0.01, R p 2 =0.67). In conclusion, despite limitations in determining legal majority age, manubrium morphometry analysis presented statistically significant results for skeletal age estimation, which indicates that this bone structure may be considered as a new candidate in multi-factorial MRI-based age estimation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimates of Forest Biomass Carbon Storage in Liaoning Province of Northeast China: A Review and Assessment

PubMed Central

Yu, Dapao; Wang, Xiaoyu; Yin, You; Zhan, Jinyu; Lewis, Bernard J.; Tian, Jie; Bao, Ye; Zhou, Wangming; Zhou, Li; Dai, Limin

2014-01-01

Accurate estimates of forest carbon storage and changes in storage capacity are critical for scientific assessment of the effects of forest management on the role of forests as carbon sinks. Up to now, several studies reported forest biomass carbon (FBC) in Liaoning Province based on data from China's Continuous Forest Inventory, however, their accuracy were still not known. This study compared estimates of FBC in Liaoning Province derived from different methods. We found substantial variation in estimates of FBC storage for young and middle-age forests. For provincial forests with high proportions in these age classes, the continuous biomass expansion factor method (CBM) by forest type with age class is more accurate and therefore more appropriate for estimating forest biomass. Based on the above approach designed for this study, forests in Liaoning Province were found to be a carbon sink, with carbon stocks increasing from 63.0 TgC in 1980 to 120.9 TgC in 2010, reflecting an annual increase of 1.9 TgC. The average carbon density of forest biomass in the province has increased from 26.2 Mg ha−1 in 1980 to 31.0 Mg ha−1 in 2010. While the largest FBC occurred in middle-age forests, the average carbon density decreased in this age class during these three decades. The increase in forest carbon density resulted primarily from the increased area and carbon storage of mature forests. The relatively long age interval in each age class for slow-growing forest types increased the uncertainty of FBC estimates by CBM-forest type with age class, and further studies should devote more attention to the time span of age classes in establishing biomass expansion factors for use in CBM calculations. PMID:24586881

Estimates of forest biomass carbon storage inLiaoning Province of Northeast China: a review and assessment.

PubMed

Yu, Dapao; Wang, Xiaoyu; Yin, You; Zhan, Jinyu; Lewis, Bernard J; Tian, Jie; Bao, Ye; Zhou, Wangming; Zhou, Li; Dai, Limin

2014-01-01

Accurate estimates of forest carbon storage and changes in storage capacity are critical for scientific assessment of the effects of forest management on the role of forests as carbon sinks. Up to now, several studies reported forest biomass carbon (FBC) in Liaoning Province based on data from China's Continuous Forest Inventory, however, their accuracy were still not known. This study compared estimates of FBC in Liaoning Province derived from different methods. We found substantial variation in estimates of FBC storage for young and middle-age forests. For provincial forests with high proportions in these age classes, the continuous biomass expansion factor method (CBM) by forest type with age class is more accurate and therefore more appropriate for estimating forest biomass. Based on the above approach designed for this study, forests in Liaoning Province were found to be a carbon sink, with carbon stocks increasing from 63.0 TgC in 1980 to 120.9 TgC in 2010, reflecting an annual increase of 1.9 TgC. The average carbon density of forest biomass in the province has increased from 26.2 Mg ha(-1) in 1980 to 31.0 Mg ha(-1) in 2010. While the largest FBC occurred in middle-age forests, the average carbon density decreased in this age class during these three decades. The increase in forest carbon density resulted primarily from the increased area and carbon storage of mature forests. The relatively long age interval in each age class for slow-growing forest types increased the uncertainty of FBC estimates by CBM-forest type with age class, and further studies should devote more attention to the time span of age classes in establishing biomass expansion factors for use in CBM calculations.

The effect of age and body composition on body mass estimation of males using the stature/bi-iliac method.

PubMed

Junno, Juho-Antti; Niskanen, Markku; Maijanen, Heli; Holt, Brigitte; Sladek, Vladimir; Niinimäki, Sirpa; Berner, Margit

2018-02-01

The stature/bi-iliac breadth method provides reasonably precise, skeletal frame size (SFS) based body mass (BM) estimations across adults as a whole. In this study, we examine the potential effects of age changes in anthropometric dimensions on the estimation accuracy of SFS-based body mass estimation. We use anthropometric data from the literature and our own skeletal data from two osteological collections to study effects of age on stature, bi-iliac breadth, body mass, and body composition, as they are major components behind body size and body size estimations. We focus on males, as relevant longitudinal data are based on male study samples. As a general rule, lean body mass (LBM) increases through adolescence and early adulthood until people are aged in their 30s or 40s, and starts to decline in the late 40s or early 50s. Fat mass (FM) tends to increase until the mid-50s and declines thereafter, but in more mobile traditional societies it may decline throughout adult life. Because BM is the sum of LBM and FM, it exhibits a curvilinear age-related pattern in all societies. Skeletal frame size is based on stature and bi-iliac breadth, and both of those dimensions are affected by age. Skeletal frame size based body mass estimation tends to increase throughout adult life in both skeletal and anthropometric samples because an age-related increase in bi-iliac breadth more than compensates for an age-related stature decline commencing in the 30s or 40s. Combined with the above-mentioned curvilinear BM change, this results in curvilinear estimation bias. However, for simulations involving low to moderate percent body fat, the stature/bi-iliac method works well in predicting body mass in younger and middle-aged adults. Such conditions are likely to have applied to most human paleontological and archaeological samples. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme longevity in freshwater mussels revisited: sources of bias in age estimates derived from mark-recapture experiments

Treesearch

Wendell R. Haag

2009-01-01

There may be bias associated with mark–recapture experiments used to estimate age and growth of freshwater mussels. Using subsets of a mark–recapture dataset for Quadrula pustulosa, I examined how age and growth parameter estimates are affected by (i) the range and skew of the data and (ii) growth reduction due to handling. I compared predictions...

Age estimation standards for a Western Australian population using the coronal pulp cavity index.

PubMed

Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel

2013-09-10

Age estimation is a vital aspect in creating a biological profile and aids investigators by narrowing down potentially matching identities from the available pool. In addition to routine casework, in the present global political scenario, age estimation in living individuals is required in cases of refugees, asylum seekers, human trafficking and to ascertain age of criminal responsibility. Thus robust methods that are simple, non-invasive and ethically viable are required. The aim of the present study is, therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the coronal pulp cavity index method, for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 450 orthopantomograms (220 females and 230 males) of Australian individuals were analyzed. Crown and coronal pulp chamber heights were measured in the mandibular left and right premolars, and the first and second molars. These measurements were then used to calculate the tooth coronal index. Data was analyzed using paired sample t-tests to assess bilateral asymmetry followed by simple linear and multiple regressions to develop age estimation models. The most accurate age estimation based on simple linear regression model was with mandibular right first molar (SEE ±8.271 years). Multiple regression models improved age prediction accuracy considerably and the most accurate model was with bilateral first and second molars (SEE ±6.692 years). This study represents the first investigation of this method in a Western Australian population and our results indicate that the method is suitable for forensic application. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of statistical shape analysis for the estimation of bone and forensic age using the shapes of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th cervical vertebrae in a young Japanese population.

PubMed

Rhee, Chang-Hoon; Shin, Sang Min; Choi, Yong-Seok; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Kim, Yong-Il; Kim, Seong-Sik; Park, Soo-Byung; Son, Woo-Sung

2015-12-01

From computed tomographic images, the dentocentral synchondrosis can be identified in the second cervical vertebra. This can demarcate the border between the odontoid process and the body of the 2nd cervical vertebra and serve as a good model for the prediction of bone and forensic age. Nevertheless, until now, there has been no application of the 2nd cervical vertebra based on the dentocentral synchondrosis. In this study, statistical shape analysis was used to build bone and forensic age estimation regression models. Following the principles of statistical shape analysis and principal components analysis, we used cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to evaluate a Japanese population (35 males and 45 females, from 5 to 19 years old). The narrowest prediction intervals among the multivariate regression models were 19.63 for bone age and 2.99 for forensic age. There was no significant difference between form space and shape space in the bone and forensic age estimation models. However, for gender comparison, the bone and forensic age estimation models for males had the higher explanatory power. This study derived an improved objective and quantitative method for bone and forensic age estimation based on only the 2nd, 3rd and 4th cervical vertebral shapes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of Smallmouth Bass predation on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in South Dakota glacial lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Willis, D.W.; Blackwell, B. G.; Chipps, Steven R.; Bacula, T. D.; Wuellner, M.R.

2015-01-01

We estimated the influence of predation by Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch Perca flavescens in two northeastern South Dakota glacial lakes. We estimated a likely range in consumption of age-0 Yellow Perch using Smallmouth Bass diet information from two time periods when age-0 Yellow Perch constituted high (2008) and low (2012 and 2013) proportions of Smallmouth Bass diets, and bass population size estimates as inputs in a bioenergetics model. The proportion of age-0 Yellow Perch consumed by the Smallmouth Bass populations was determined by comparing estimates of consumption with estimates of age-0 perch production. During 2008, age-0 Yellow Perch constituted between 0% and 42% of Smallmouth Bass diets by weight, whereas during 2012 and 2013, age-0 perch constituted between 0% and 20% of bass diets by weight. Across both lakes and time periods, production of age-0 Yellow Perch ranged from 0.32 to 1.78 kg·ha−1·week−1. Estimates of Smallmouth Bass consumption measured during the same intervals ranged from 0.06 to 0.33 kg·ha−1·week−1, equating to consumption of between 1% and 34% of the available Yellow Perch biomass. Given current conditions relative to Smallmouth Bass abundance and consumption dynamics and production of age-0 Yellow Perch, it does not appear that Smallmouth Bass predation acts as a singular factor limiting recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in our study lakes. However, future research and management initiatives should recognize that the long-term impact of Smallmouth Bass predation is not static and will likely fluctuate depending on environmental (e.g., temperature) and biotic (e.g., trends in macrophyte abundance, predator and prey population structure and abundance, and predatory fish assemblage dynamics) characteristics.

Injuries at Work in the US Adult Population: Contributions to the Total Injury Burden

PubMed Central

Smith, Gordon S.; Wellman, Helen M.; Sorock, Gary S.; Warner, Margaret; Courtney, Theodore K.; Pransky, Glenn S.; Fingerhut, Lois A.

2005-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the contribution of nonfatal work-related injuries on the injury burden among working-age adults (aged 18–64 years) in the United States. Methods. We used the 1997–1999 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate injury rates and proportions of work-related vs non–work-related injuries. Results. An estimated 19.4 million medically treated injuries occurred annually to working-age adults (11.7 episodes per 100 persons; 95% confidence interval [CI]=11.3, 12.1); 29%, or 5.5 million (4.5 per 100 persons; 95% CI=4.2, 4.7), occurred at work and varied by gender, age, and race/ethnicity. Among employed persons, 38% of injuries occurred at work, and among employed men aged 55–64 years, 49% of injuries occurred at work. Conclusions. Injuries at work comprise a substantial part of the injury burden, accounting for nearly half of all injuries in some age groups. The NHIS provides an important source of population-based data with which to determine the work relatedness of injuries. Study estimates of days away from work after injury were 1.8 times higher than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) workplace-based estimates and 1.4 times as high as BLS estimates for private industry. The prominence of occupational injuries among injuries to working-age adults reinforces the need to examine workplace conditions in efforts to reduce the societal impact of injuries. PMID:15983273

DNA methylation markers in combination with skeletal and dental ages to improve age estimation in children.

PubMed

Shi, Lei; Jiang, Fan; Ouyang, Fengxiu; Zhang, Jun; Wang, Zhimin; Shen, Xiaoming

2018-03-01

Age estimation is critical in forensic science, in competitive sports and games and in other age-related fields, but the current methods are suboptimal. The combination of age-associated DNA methylation markers with skeletal age (SA) and dental age (DA) may improve the accuracy and precision of age estimation, but no study has examined this topic. In the current study, we measured SA (GP, TW3-RUS, and TW3-Carpal methods) and DA (Demirjian and Willems methods) by X-ray examination in 124 Chinese children (78 boys and 46 girls) aged 6-15 years. To identify age-associated CpG sites, we analyzed methylome-wide DNA methylation profiling by using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip system in 48 randomly selected children. Five CpG sites were identified as associated with chronologic age (CA), with an absolute value of Pearson's correlation coefficient (r)>0.5 (p<0.01) and a false discovery rate<0.01. The validation of age-associated CpG sites was performed using droplet digital PCR techniques in all 124 children. After validation, four CpG sites for boys and five CpG sites for girls were further adopted to build the age estimation model with SA and DA using multivariate linear stepwise regressions. These CpG sites were located at 4 known genes: DDO, PRPH2, DHX8, and ITGA2B and at one unknown gene with the Illumina ID number of 22398226. The accuracy of age estimation methods was compared according to the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The best single measure for SA was the TW3-RUS method (MAE=0.69years, RMSE=0.95years) in boys, and the GP method (MAE=0.74years, RMSE=0.94years) in girls. For DA, the Willems method was the best single measure for both boys (MAE=0.63years, RMSE=0.78years) and girls (MAE=0.54years, RMSE=0.68years). The models that incorporated SA and DA with the methylation levels of age-associated CpG sites provided the highest accuracy of age estimation in both boys (MAE=0.47years, R 2 =0.886) and girls (MAE=0.33years, R 2 =0.941). Cross validation of the results confirmed the reliability and validity of the models. In conclusion, age-associated DNA methylation markers in combination with SA and DA greatly improve the accuracy of age estimation in Chinese children. This method may be applied in forensic science, in competitive sports and games and in other age-related fields. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Subjective age-of-acquisition norms for 600 Turkish words from four age groups.

PubMed

Göz, İlyas; Tekcan, Ali I; Erciyes, Aslı Aktan

2017-10-01

The main purpose of this study was to report age-based subjective age-of-acquisition (AoA) norms for 600 Turkish words. A total of 115 children, 100 young adults, 115 middle-aged adults, and 127 older adults provided AoA estimates for 600 words on a 7-point scale. The intraclass correlations suggested high reliability, and the AoA estimates were highly correlated across the four age groups. Children gave earlier AoA estimates than the three adult groups; this was true for high-frequency as well as low-frequency words. In addition to the means and standard deviations of the AoA estimates, we report word frequency, concreteness, and imageability ratings, as well as word length measures (numbers of syllables and letters), for the 600 words as supplemental materials. The present ratings represent a potentially useful database for researchers working on lexical processing as well as other aspects of cognitive processing, such as autobiographical memory.

Age Estimation Based on Appearance of Gray Hair in Different Body Sites of Sri Lankan Autopsy Cases.

PubMed

Senanayake, Harshana Mahendra Kumara; Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana

2017-07-01

Owing to the scanty evidence on usefulness of information of appearance of gray hair for age estimation, this study was conducted to estimate age based on the appearance of gray hair on different body sites in a sample of autopsy cases in Sri Lanka. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Teaching Hospital-Kurunegala during 2011 to 2013. Based on the pattern of the presence of gray hair in different body sites, six stages of gray hair were computed. The analysis 1155 autopsy cases revealed strong, positive correlations between age and appearance of gray hair in head, mustache, beard, and pubic area among males and strong, positive correlations between age and the appearance of gray hair in head and pubic area among females (p < 0.01). Our findings demonstrate the value of information of appearance of gray hair for age estimation in the field of forensic science. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Applications of physiological bases of ageing to forensic sciences. Estimation of age-at-death.

PubMed

C Zapico, Sara; Ubelaker, Douglas H

2013-03-01

Age-at-death estimation is one of the main challenges in forensic sciences since it contributes to the identification of individuals. There are many anthropological techniques to estimate the age at death in children and adults. However, in adults this methodology is less accurate and requires population specific references. For that reason, new methodologies have been developed. Biochemical methods are based on the natural process of ageing, which induces different biochemical changes that lead to alterations in cells and tissues. In this review, we describe different attempts to estimate the age in adults based on these changes. Chemical approaches imply modifications in molecules or accumulation of some products. Molecular biology approaches analyze the modifications in DNA and chromosomes. Although the most accurate technique appears to be aspartic acid racemization, it is important to take into account the other techniques because the forensic context and the human remains available will determine the possibility to apply one or another methodology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

PubMed

Roy, S G

1989-06-01

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

Heterogeneous Rates of Molecular Evolution and Diversification Could Explain the Triassic Age Estimate for Angiosperms.

PubMed

Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Crane, Peter; Donoghue, Michael J

2015-09-01

Dating analyses based on molecular data imply that crown angiosperms existed in the Triassic, long before their undisputed appearance in the fossil record in the Early Cretaceous. Following a re-analysis of the age of angiosperms using updated sequences and fossil calibrations, we use a series of simulations to explore the possibility that the older age estimates are a consequence of (i) major shifts in the rate of sequence evolution near the base of the angiosperms and/or (ii) the representative taxon sampling strategy employed in such studies. We show that both of these factors do tend to yield substantially older age estimates. These analyses do not prove that younger age estimates based on the fossil record are correct, but they do suggest caution in accepting the older age estimates obtained using current relaxed-clock methods. Although we have focused here on the angiosperms, we suspect that these results will shed light on dating discrepancies in other major clades. ©The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting age at menopause from serum antimüllerian hormone concentration.

PubMed

Tehrani, Fahimeh Ramezani; Shakeri, Nezhat; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Azizi, Fereidoun

2011-07-01

We aimed to estimate age at menopause using serum antimüllerian hormone (AMH) concentration. We randomly selected 266 study participants from a pool of 1,265 eligible women in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study cohort. We measured AMH levels three times at about 3-year intervals. There were 63 occurrences of menopause in our participants over an average of 6-year follow-up. We built an accelerated failure time model using serum AMH level at the start of follow-up to estimate age at menopause. The goodness of fit for the model was tested using Cox-Snell residuals and the Bland-Altman plot. We estimated ages at menopause for different levels of serum AMH concentration among women aged 20 to 49 years. For those who reached menopause, serum AMH concentrations about 6 years before the event provided fairly accurate estimates of the age at menopause. The Bland-Altman plot showed an acceptable agreement between predicted and observed values. Serum AMH concentrations can reasonably forecast the age at menopause for individual women.

Service Lifetime Estimation of EPDM Rubber Based on Accelerated Aging Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jie; Li, Xiangbo; Xu, Likun; He, Tao

2017-04-01

Service lifetime of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber at room temperature (25 °C) was estimated based on accelerated aging tests. The study followed sealing stress loss on compressed cylinder samples by compression stress relaxation methods. The results showed that the cylinder samples of EPDM can quickly reach the physical relaxation equilibrium by using the over-compression method. The non-Arrhenius behavior occurred at the lowest aging temperature. A significant linear relationship was observed between compression set values and normalized stress decay results, and the relationship was not related to the ambient temperature of aging. It was estimated that the sealing stress loss in view of practical application would occur after around 86.8 years at 25 °C. The estimations at 25 °C based on the non-Arrhenius behavior were in agreement with compression set data from storage aging tests in natural environment.

Fully automatic bone age estimation from left hand MR images.

PubMed

Stern, Darko; Ebner, Thomas; Bischof, Horst; Grassegger, Sabine; Ehammer, Thomas; Urschler, Martin

2014-01-01

There has recently been an increased demand in bone age estimation (BAE) of living individuals and human remains in legal medicine applications. A severe drawback of established BAE techniques based on X-ray images is radiation exposure, since many countries prohibit scanning involving ionizing radiation without diagnostic reasons. We propose a completely automated method for BAE based on volumetric hand MRI images. On our database of 56 male caucasian subjects between 13 and 19 years, we are able to estimate the subjects age with a mean difference of 0.85 ± 0.58 years compared to the chronological age, which is in line with radiologist results using established radiographic methods. We see this work as a promising first step towards a novel MRI based bone age estimation system, with the key benefits of lacking exposure to ionizing radiation and higher accuracy due to exploitation of volumetric data.

A Protocol for Aging Anurans Using Skeletochronology

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCreary, Brome; Pearl, Christopher A.; Adams, Michael J.

2008-01-01

Age distribution information can be an important part of understanding the biology of any population. Age estimates collected from the annual growth rings found in tooth and bone cross sections, often referred to as Lines of Arrested Growth (LAGs), have been used in the study of various animals. In this manual, we describe in detail all necessary steps required to obtain estimates of age from anuran bone cross sections via skeletochronological assessment. We include comprehensive descriptions of how to fix and decalcify toe specimens (phalanges), process a phalange prior to embedding, embed the phalange in paraffin, section the phalange using a microtome, stain and mount the cross sections of the phalange and read the LAGs to obtain age estimates.

Handwritten document age classification based on handwriting styles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaiah, Chetan; Kumar, Gaurav; Govindaraju, Venu

2012-01-01

Handwriting styles are constantly changing over time. We approach the novel problem of estimating the approximate age of Historical Handwritten Documents using Handwriting styles. This system will have many applications in handwritten document processing engines where specialized processing techniques can be applied based on the estimated age of the document. We propose to learn a distribution over styles across centuries using Topic Models and to apply a classifier over weights learned in order to estimate the approximate age of the documents. We present a comparison of different distance metrics such as Euclidean Distance and Hellinger Distance within this application.

Eastern Baltic region vs. Western Europe: modelling age related changes in the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface.

PubMed

Jatautis, Šarūnas; Jankauskas, Rimantas

2018-02-01

Objectives. The present study addresses the following two main questions: a) Is the pattern of skeletal ageing observed in well-known western European reference collections applicable to modern eastern Baltic populations, or are population-specific standards needed? b) What are the consequences for estimating the age-at-death distribution in the target population when differences in the estimates from reference data are not taken into account? Materials and methods. The dataset consists of a modern Lithuanian osteological reference collection, which is the only collection of this type in the eastern Baltic countries (n = 381); and two major western European reference collections, Coimbra (n = 264) and Spitalfields (n = 239). The age-related changes were evaluated using the scoring systems of Suchey-Brooks (Brooks & Suchey 1990) and Lovejoy et al. (1985), and were modelled via regression models for multinomial responses. A controlled experiment based on simulations and the Rostock Manifesto estimation protocol (Wood et al. 2002) was then carried out to assess the effect of using estimates from different reference samples and different regression models on estimates of the age-at-death distribution in the hypothetical target population. Results. The following key results were obtained in this study. a) The morphological alterations in the pubic symphysis were much faster among women than among men at comparable ages in all three reference samples. In contrast, we found no strong evidence in any of the reference samples that sex is an important factor to explain rate of changes in the auricular surface. b) The rate of ageing in the pubic symphysis seems to be similar across the three reference samples, but there is little evidence of a similar pattern in the auricular surface. That is, the estimated rate of age-related changes in the auricular surface was much faster in the LORC and the Coimbra samples than in the Spitalfields sample. c) The results of simulations showed that the differences in the estimates from the reference data result in noticeably different age-at-death distributions in the target population. Thus, a degree bias may be expected if estimates from the western European reference data are used to collect information on ages at death in the eastern Baltic region based on the changes in the auricular surface. d) Moreover, the bias is expected to be more pronounced if the fitted regression model improperly describes the reference data. Conclusions. Differences in the timing of age-related changes in skeletal traits are to be expected among European reference samples, and cannot be ignored when seeking to reliably estimate an age-at-death distribution in the target population. This form of bias should be taken into consideration in further studies of skeletal samples from the eastern Baltic region.

Accuracy of MRI skeletal age estimation for subjects 12-19. Potential use for subjects of unknown age.

PubMed

Serinelli, Serenella; Panebianco, Valeria; Martino, Milvia; Battisti, Sofia; Rodacki, Karina; Marinelli, Enrico; Zaccagna, Fulvio; Semelka, Richard C; Tomei, Ernesto

2015-05-01

In forensic practice, there is a growing need for accurate methods of age estimation, especially in the cases of young individuals of unknown age. Age can be estimated through somatic features that are universally considered associated with chronological age. Unfortunately, these features do not always coincide with the real chronological age: for these reasons that age determination is often very difficult. Our aim is to evaluate accuracy of skeletal age estimation using Tomei's MRI method in subjects between 12 and 19 years old for forensic purposes. Two investigators analyzed MRI images of the left hand and wrist of 77 male and 74 female caucasian subjects, without chronic diseases or developmental disorders, whose age ranged from 12 to 19 years. Skeletal maturation was determined by two operators, who analyzed all MRI images separately, in blinded fashion to the chronological age. Inter-rater agreement was measured with Pearson (R (2)) coefficient. One of the examiners repeated the evaluation after 6 months, and intraobserver variation was analyzed. Bland-Altman plots were used to determine mean differences between skeletal and chronological age. Inter-rater agreement Pearson coefficient showed a good linear correlation, respectively, 0.98 and 0.97 in males and females. Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that the differences between chronological and skeletal age are not significant. Spearman's correlation coefficient showed good correlation between skeletal and chronological age both in females (R (2) = 0.96) and in males (R (2) = 0.94). Our results show that MRI skeletal age is a reproducible method and has good correlation with chronological age.

Third molar mineralization in relation to chronologic age estimation of the Han in central southern China.

PubMed

Liu, Ying; Geng, Kun; Chu, Yanhao; Xu, Mindi; Zha, Lagabaiyila

2018-03-03

The purpose of this study is to provide a forensic reference data about estimating chronologic age by evaluating the third molar mineralization of Han in central southern China. The mineralization degree of third molars was assessed by Demirjian's classification with modification for 2519 digital orthopantomograms (1190 males, 1329 females; age 8-23 years). The mean ages of the initial mineralization and the crown completion of third molars were around 9.66 and 13.88 years old in males and 9.52 and 14.09 years old in females. The minimum ages of apical closure were around 16 years in both sexes. Twenty-eight at stage C and stage G and 38 and 48 at stage F occurred earlier in males than in females. There was no significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth in males and females except that stage C in males. Two formulas were devised to estimate age based on mineralization stages and sexes. In Hunan Province, the person will probably be over age 14, when a third molar reaches the stage G. The results of the study could provide reference for age estimation in forensic cases and clinical dentistry.

Aging adult skull remains through radiological density estimates: A comparison of different computed tomography systems and the use of computer simulations to judge the accuracy of results.

PubMed

Obert, Martin; Kubelt, Carolin; Schaaf, Thomas; Dassinger, Benjamin; Grams, Astrid; Gizewski, Elke R; Krombach, Gabriele A; Verhoff, Marcel A

2013-05-10

The objective of this article was to explore age-at-death estimates in forensic medicine, which were methodically based on age-dependent, radiologically defined bone-density (HC) decay and which were investigated with a standard clinical computed tomography (CT) system. Such density decay was formerly discovered with a high-resolution flat-panel CT in the skulls of adult females. The development of a standard CT methodology for age estimations--with thousands of installations--would have the advantage of being applicable everywhere, whereas only few flat-panel prototype CT systems are in use worldwide. A Multi-Slice CT scanner (MSCT) was used to obtain 22,773 images from 173 European human skulls (89 male, 84 female), taken from a population of patients from the Department of Neuroradiology at the University Hospital Giessen and Marburg during 2010 and 2011. An automated image analysis was carried out to evaluate HC of all images. The age dependence of HC was studied by correlation analysis. The prediction accuracy of age-at-death estimates was calculated. Computer simulations were carried out to explore the influence of noise on the accuracy of age predictions. Human skull HC values strongly scatter as a function of age for both sexes. Adult male skull bone-density remains constant during lifetime. Adult female HC decays during lifetime, as indicated by a correlation coefficient (CC) of -0.53. Prediction errors for age-at-death estimates for both of the used scanners are in the range of ±18 years at a 75% confidence interval (CI). Computer simulations indicate that this is the best that can be expected for such noisy data. Our results indicate that HC-decay is indeed present in adult females and that it can be demonstrated both by standard and by high-resolution CT methods, applied to different subject groups of an identical population. The weak correlation between HC and age found by both CT methods only enables a method to estimate age-at-death with limited practical relevance since the errors of the estimates are large. Computer simulations clearly indicate that data with less noise and CCs in the order of -0.97 or less would be necessary to enable age-at-death estimates with an accuracy of ±5 years at a 75% CI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of Willem's dental age estimation method in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Wan Mokhtar, Ilham; Rajasekharan, Sivaprakash; Overholser, Rosanna; Martens, Luc

2017-11-01

Through numerous validation and method comparison studies on different populations, the Willems method exhibited a superior accuracy. This article aims to systematically examine how accurate the application of Willems dental age method on children of different age groups and its performance based on various populations and regions. A strategic literature search of PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE and hand searching were used to identify the studies published up to September 2014 that estimated the dental age using the Willems method (modified Demirjian), with a populations, intervention, comparisons and outcomes (PICO) search strategy using MeSH keywords, focusing on the question: How much Willems method deviates from the chronological age in estimating age in children? Standardized mean differences were calculated for difference of dental age to chronological age by using random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate potential heterogeneity. Of 116 titles retrieved based on the standardized search strategy, only 19 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis. The pooled estimates were separately kept as underestimation (n=7) and overestimation (n=12) of chronological age groups for both genders according to primary studies. On absolute values, females (underestimated by 0.13; 95% CI: 0.09-0.18 and overestimated by 0.27; 95% CI: 0.17-0.36) exhibited better accuracy than males (underestimated by 0.28; 95% CI: 0.14-0.42 and overestimated by 0.33; 95% CI: 0.22-0.44). For comparison purposes, the overall pooled estimate overestimated the age by 0.10 (95% CI: -0.06 to 0.26) and 0.09 (95% CI: -0.09 to 0.19) for males and females, respectively. There was no significant difference between the young and older child in subgroup analysis using omnibus test. The mean age between different regions exhibited no statistically significant. The use of Willems method is appropriate to estimate age in children considering its accuracy among different populations, investigators and age groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

2011-01-01

Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

[Establish Assessment Model of 18 Years of Age in Chinese Han Population by Mandibular Third Molar].

PubMed

Fan, Fei; Dai, Xin-hua; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuan; Zhang, Kui; Deng, Zhen-hua

2016-02-01

To explore the value of estimating chronologic age based on the grades of mandibular third molar development. To evaluate whether mandibular third molar could be used as an indicator for estimating the age under or over 18 years. The mineralization status of mandibular third molar of 1 845 individuals aged 10 - 30 was graded and marked based on Demirjian's classification of grades reformed by Orhan. Gender difference was examined by t-test. A cubic regression model was established to analyze the correlation between third molar and chronologic age. Each grade of age cumulative distribution diagram and ROC curve was respectively performed to evaluate the relationship between third molar and the age of 18. Using Bayes discriminant analysis, an equation was established for estimating the age of 18. The inner-rater reliability was 0.903. Statistical analysis showed a moderate correlation between age and grade. Significant differences of both genders were found only in grade D and H (P < 0.05). Males at the grades from 1 to D and females at the grades from 1 to C were under 18 years old, and both males and females at grade H were over 18 years old. The area under the ROC curve was 0.797 (P < 0.05). Third molar development shows a high correlation with age, and combined with other indicators, it can be used to estimate the age of 18.

Herpes zoster vaccine (HZV): utilization and coverage 2009 - 2013, Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Liu, Xianfang C; Simmonds, Kimberley A; Russell, Margaret L; Svenson, Lawrence W

2014-10-23

Herpes zoster vaccine (HZV) is not publicly funded in the province of Alberta, Canada. We estimated vaccine coverage among those aged 60 years or older for 2013, as well as vaccine utilization rates per hundred thousand population over the period 2009 - 2013. We explored for factors associated with HZV dispensing rates. We used administrative data from the Alberta Pharmaceutical Information Network (PIN) database to identify unique persons for whom HZV had been dispensed from community pharmacies over 2009 - 2013. PIN data were also used to estimate the pharmacy/population ratios for rural and urban Alberta over the period. Denominators for rates were estimated using mid-year population estimates from the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan Registry. Income quintile data were estimated from the 2006 Census of Canada. Crude, age, sex, geographic (rural vs. urban), income-quintile and year specific rates of HZV vaccine dispensing were estimated per 100,000 population. Rates were adjusted for pharmacy/population ratio. Vaccine coverage for persons aged 60 years or older was estimated using counts of all unique persons for whom the vaccine was dispensed over the period in the numerator and a 2013 mid- year population denominator. HZV dispensing rates rose annually from 2009 - 2013. Vaccine coverage was estimated to be 8.4% among persons aged 60 years or older. Rates of dispensing were highest for persons aged 60-69 years and were higher for females than males and for persons from higher compared to lower income quintiles. Dispensing rates were lower for rural than for urban residents. About 2% of vaccine was dispensed for persons aged less than 50 years. Rates of HZV dispensing are increasing rapidly in Alberta despite a lack of public funding. A small proportion of the vaccine may be dispensed off-label.

An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

2009-01-01

The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

Comparison of the diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of four odontological methods for age evaluation in Italian children at the age threshold of 14 years using ROC curves.

PubMed

Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Vitale, Giulia; Rugo, Dario; Nieri, Michele; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

2016-01-01

The age threshold of 14 years is relevant in Italy as the minimum age for criminal responsibility. It is of utmost importance to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of every odontological method for age evaluation considering the sensitivity, or the ability to estimate the true positive cases, and the specificity, or the ability to estimate the true negative cases. The research aims to compare the specificity and sensitivity of four commonly adopted methods of dental age estimation - Demirjian, Haavikko, Willems and Cameriere - in a sample of Italian children aged between 11 and 16 years, with an age threshold of 14 years, using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC). In addition, new decision criteria are developed to increase the accuracy of the methods. Among the four odontological methods for age estimation adopted in the research, the Cameriere method showed the highest AUC in both female and male cohorts. The Cameriere method shows a high degree of accuracy at the age threshold of 14 years. To adopt the Cameriere method to estimate the 14-year age threshold more accurately, however, it is suggested - according to the Youden index - that the decision criterion be set at the lower value of 12.928 for females and 13.258 years for males, obtaining a sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 88% in females, and a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 92% in males. If a specificity level >90% is needed, the cut-off point should be set at 12.959 years (82% sensitivity) for females. © The Author(s) 2015.

Accelerated DNA Methylation Age: Associations with PTSD and Neural Integrity

PubMed Central

Wolf, Erika J.; Logue, Mark W.; Hayes, Jasmeet P.; Sadeh, Naomi; Schichman, Steven A.; Stone, Annjanette; Salat, David H.; Milberg, William; McGlinchey, Regina; Miller, Mark W.

2015-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence suggests that post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may accelerate cellular aging and lead to premature morbidity and neurocognitive decline. Methods This study evaluated associations between PTSD and DNA methylation (DNAm) age using recently developed algorithms of cellular age by Horvath (2013) and Hannum et al. (2013). These estimates reflect accelerated aging when they exceed chronological age. We also examined if accelerated cellular age manifested in degraded neural integrity, indexed via diffusion tensor imaging. Results Among 281 male and female veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, DNAm age was strongly related to chronological age (rs ~.88). Lifetime PTSD severity was associated with Hannum DNAm age estimates residualized for chronological age (β = .13, p= .032). Advanced DNAm age was associated with reduced integrity in the genu of the corpus callosum (β = −.17, p= .009) and indirectly linked to poorer working memory performance via this region (indirect β = − .05, p= .029). Horvath DNAm age estimates were not associated with PTSD or neural integrity. Conclusions Results provide novel support for PTSD-related accelerated aging in DNAm and extend the evidence base of known DNAm age correlates to the domains of neural integrity and cognition. PMID:26447678

Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger

2010-01-01

The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

PubMed

Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

2015-05-10

Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

PubMed Central

Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

2013-01-01

Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

Age estimation by using dental radiographs

PubMed Central

Limdiwala, Piyush G.; Shah, J. S.

2013-01-01

Background: Estimation of age is important in forensic sciences as a way to establish the identity of human remains. Of the various parts of the body used in age estimation, teeth are the least affected by the taphonomic process. Their durability means that they are sometimes the only body part available for study. Several methods of age estimation have been studied using bone and teeth, and among them, tooth wear and apposition of secondary dentine are the currently available non-destructive methods. Objectives: The purpose of the study was to determine the age of adults by using Kvaal's method as well as to establish the relationship of chronological age and dental age with its reliability and limitations on digital panoramic radiographs. Materials and Methods: The present study was based on panoramic radiographs that consisted of two groups. One hundred orthopantomographs with Kvaal's criteria (Group A) and 50 orthopantomographs without Kvaal's criteria (Group B) were included. Various parameters were measured and the result was analyzed by means of SPSS-12.0 program statistical data. Result and Conclusion: On the basis of Kvaal's criteria, the difference between chronological age and real age was 8.3 years. This suggests that the accuracy of this method depends on the precision of measurements and quality and number of the orthopantomographs. PMID:24255560

Preterm or not--an evaluation of estimates of gestational age in a cohort of women from Rural Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Karl, Stephan; Li Wai Suen, Connie S N; Unger, Holger W; Ome-Kaius, Maria; Mola, Glen; White, Lisa; Wangnapi, Regina A; Rogerson, Stephen J; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Knowledge of accurate gestational age is required for comprehensive pregnancy care and is an essential component of research evaluating causes of preterm birth. In industrialised countries gestational age is determined with the help of fetal biometry in early pregnancy. Lack of ultrasound and late presentation to antenatal clinic limits this practice in low-resource settings. Instead, clinical estimators of gestational age are used, but their accuracy remains a matter of debate. In a cohort of 688 singleton pregnancies from rural Papua New Guinea, delivery gestational age was calculated from Ballard score, last menstrual period, symphysis-pubis fundal height at first visit and quickening as well as mid- and late pregnancy fetal biometry. Published models using sequential fundal height measurements and corrected last menstrual period to estimate gestational age were also tested. Novel linear models that combined clinical measurements for gestational age estimation were developed. Predictions were compared with the reference early pregnancy ultrasound (<25 gestational weeks) using correlation, regression and Bland-Altman analyses and ranked for their capability to predict preterm birth using the harmonic mean of recall and precision (F-measure). Average bias between reference ultrasound and clinical methods ranged from 0-11 days (95% confidence levels: 14-42 days). Preterm birth was best predicted by mid-pregnancy ultrasound (F-measure: 0.72), and neuromuscular Ballard score provided the least reliable preterm birth prediction (F-measure: 0.17). The best clinical methods to predict gestational age and preterm birth were last menstrual period and fundal height (F-measures 0.35). A linear model combining both measures improved prediction of preterm birth (F-measure: 0.58). Estimation of gestational age without ultrasound is prone to significant error. In the absence of ultrasound facilities, last menstrual period and fundal height are among the more reliable clinical measures. This study underlines the importance of strengthening ultrasound facilities and developing novel ways to estimate gestational age.

Validity and reliability of dental age estimation of teeth root translucency based on digital luminance determination.

PubMed

Ramsthaler, Frank; Kettner, Mattias; Verhoff, Marcel A

2014-01-01

In forensic anthropological casework, estimating age-at-death is key to profiling unknown skeletal remains. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability of a new, simple, fast, and inexpensive digital odontological method for age-at-death estimation. The method is based on the original Lamendin method, which is a widely used technique in the repertoire of odontological aging methods in forensic anthropology. We examined 129 single root teeth employing a digital camera and imaging software for the measurement of the luminance of the teeth's translucent root zone. Variability in luminance detection was evaluated using statistical technical error of measurement analysis. The method revealed stable values largely unrelated to observer experience, whereas requisite formulas proved to be camera-specific and should therefore be generated for an individual recording setting based on samples of known chronological age. Multiple regression analysis showed a highly significant influence of the coefficients of the variables "arithmetic mean" and "standard deviation" of luminance for the regression formula. For the use of this primer multivariate equation for age-at-death estimation in casework, a standard error of the estimate of 6.51 years was calculated. Step-by-step reduction of the number of embedded variables to linear regression analysis employing the best contributor "arithmetic mean" of luminance yielded a regression equation with a standard error of 6.72 years (p < 0.001). The results of this study not only support the premise of root translucency as an age-related phenomenon, but also demonstrate that translucency reflects a number of other influencing factors in addition to age. This new digital measuring technique of the zone of dental root luminance can broaden the array of methods available for estimating chronological age, and furthermore facilitate measurement and age classification due to its low dependence on observer experience.

Estimated number of adults with prediabetes in the US in 2000: opportunities for prevention.

PubMed

Benjamin, Stephanie M; Valdez, Rodolfo; Geiss, Linda S; Rolka, Deborah B; Narayan, K M Venkat

2003-03-01

To estimate the percent and number of overweight adults in the U.S. with prediabetes who would be potential candidates for diabetes prevention as per the American Diabetes Association Position Statement (12). We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III; 1988-1994) and projected our estimates to the year 2000. We defined impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; 2-h glucose 140-199 mg/dl), impaired fasting glucose (IFG; fasting glucose 110-125 mg/dl), and prediabetes (IGT or IFG) per American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria. The ADA recently recommended that all overweight people (BMI >or=25 kg/m(2)) who are >or=45 years of age with prediabetes could be potential candidates for diabetes prevention, as could prediabetic people aged >25 years with risk factors. In NHANES III, 2-h postload glucose concentrations were done only among subjects aged 40-74 years. Because we were interested in overweight people who had both the 2-h glucose and fasting glucose tests, we limited our estimates of IGT, IFG, and prediabetes to those aged 45-74 years. RESULTS-Overall, 17.1% of overweight adults aged 45-74 years had IGT, 11.9% had IFG, 22.6% had prediabetes, and 5.6% had both IGT and IFG. Based on those data, we estimated that in the year 2000, 9.1 million overweight adults aged 45-74 had IGT, 5.8 million had IFG, 11.9 million had prediabetes, and 3.0 million had IGT and IFG. Almost 12 million overweight individuals aged 45-74 years in the U.S. may benefit from diabetes prevention interventions. The number will be substantially higher if estimation is extended to individuals aged >75 and 25-44 years.

An empirical comparative study on biological age estimation algorithms with an application of Work Ability Index (WAI).

PubMed

Cho, Il Haeng; Park, Kyung S; Lim, Chang Joo

2010-02-01

In this study, we described the characteristics of five different biological age (BA) estimation algorithms, including (i) multiple linear regression, (ii) principal component analysis, and somewhat unique methods developed by (iii) Hochschild, (iv) Klemera and Doubal, and (v) a variant of Klemera and Doubal's method. The objective of this study is to find the most appropriate method of BA estimation by examining the association between Work Ability Index (WAI) and the differences of each algorithm's estimates from chronological age (CA). The WAI was found to be a measure that reflects an individual's current health status rather than the deterioration caused by a serious dependency with the age. Experiments were conducted on 200 Korean male participants using a BA estimation system developed principally under the concept of non-invasive, simple to operate and human function-based. Using the empirical data, BA estimation as well as various analyses including correlation analysis and discriminant function analysis was performed. As a result, it had been confirmed by the empirical data that Klemera and Doubal's method with uncorrelated variables from principal component analysis produces relatively reliable and acceptable BA estimates. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of cesarean delivery when second-trimester ultrasound dating disagrees with definite last menstrual period.

PubMed

Grewal, Jagteshwar; Zhang, Jun; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T; Ford, Jessie

2010-08-01

Estimates of gestational age based on early second-trimester ultrasound often differ from that based on the last menstrual period (LMP) even when a woman is certain about her LMP. Discrepancies in these gestational age estimates may be associated with an increased risk of cesarean section and low birth weight. We analyzed 7228 singleton, low-risk, white women from The Routine Antenatal Diagnostic Imaging with Ultrasound trial. The women were recruited at less than 14 weeks of gestation and received ultrasound exams between 15 and 22 weeks. Our results indicate that among nulliparous women, the risk of cesarean section increased from 10% when the ultrasound-based gestational age exceeded the LMP-based estimate by 4 days to 60% when the discrepancy increased to 21 days. Moreover, for each additional day the ultrasound-based estimate exceeded the LMP-based estimate, birth weight was higher by 9.6 g. Our findings indicate that a positive discrepancy (i.e., ultrasound-based estimate exceeds LMP-based estimate) in gestational age is associated with an increased risk of cesarean section. A negative discrepancy, by contrast, may reflect early intrauterine growth restriction and an increased risk of low birth weight. Copyright Thieme Medical Publishers.

Dosimetric implications of age related glandular changes in screening mammography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckett, J. R.; Kotre, C. J.

2000-03-01

The UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme is currently organized to routinely screen women between the ages of 50 and 64, with screening for older women available on request. The lower end of this age range closely matches the median age for the menopause (51 years), during which significant changes in the composition of the breast are known to occur. In order to quantify the dosimetric effect of these changes, radiographic factors and compressed breast thickness data for a cohort of 1258 women aged between 35 and 79 undergoing breast screening mammography have been used to derive estimates of breast glandularity and mean glandular dose (MGD), and examine their variation with age. The variation of mean radiographic exposure factors with age is also investigated. The presence of a significant number of age trial women within the cohort allowed an extended age range to be studied. Estimates of MGD including corrections for breast glandularity based on compressed breast thickness only, compressed breast thickness and age and for each individual woman are compared with the MGD based on the conventional assumption of a 50:50 adipose/glandular composition. It has been found that the use of the conventional 50:50 assumption leads to overestimates of MGD of up to 13% over the age range considered. By using compressed breast thickness to estimate breast glandularity, this error range can be reduced to 8%, whilst age and compressed breast thickness based glandularity estimates result in an error range of 1%.

Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

1996-01-01

We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

How systematic age underestimation can impede understanding of fish population dynamics: Lessons learned from a Lake Superior cisco stock

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Black, J.A.; Cullis, K.I.; Cholwek, G.A.; Myers, J.T.

2008-01-01

Systematic underestimation of fish age can impede understanding of recruitment variability and adaptive strategies (like longevity) and can bias estimates of survivorship. We suspected that previous estimates of annual survival (S; range = 0.20-0.44) for Lake Superior ciscoes Coregonus artedi developed from scale ages were biased low. To test this hypothesis, we estimated the total instantaneous mortality rate of adult ciscoes from the Thunder Bay, Ontario, stock by use of cohort-based catch curves developed from commercial gill-net catches and otolith-aged fish. Mean S based on otolith ages was greater for adult females (0.80) than for adult males (0.75), but these differences were not significant. Applying the results of a study of agreement between scale and otolith ages, we modeled a scale age for each otolith-aged fish to reconstruct catch curves. Using modeled scale ages, estimates of S (0.42 for females, 0.36 for males) were comparable with those reported in past studies. We conducted a November 2005 acoustic and midwater trawl survey to estimate the abundance of ciscoes when the fish were being harvested for roe. Estimated exploitation rates were 0.085 for females and 0.025 for males, and the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality were 0.089 for females and 0.025 for males. The instantaneous rates of natural mortality were 0.131 and 0.265 for females and males, respectively. Using otolith ages, we found that strong year-classes at large during November 2005 were caught in high numbers as age-1 fish in previous annual bottom trawl surveys, whereas weak or absent year-classes were not. For decades, large-scale fisheries on the Great Lakes were allowed to operate because ciscoes were assumed to be short lived and to have regular recruitment. We postulate that the collapse of these fisheries was linked in part to a misunderstanding of cisco biology driven by scale-ageing error. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Skeletal age estimation for forensic purposes: A comparison of GP, TW2 and TW3 methods on an Italian sample.

PubMed

Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Ricciardi, Federico; Focardi, Martina; Piredda, Valentina; Mazzeo, Elena; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

2014-05-01

Paediatricians, radiologists, anthropologists and medico-legal specialists are often called as experts in order to provide age estimation (AE) for forensic purposes. The literature recommends performing the X-rays of the left hand and wrist (HW-XR) for skeletal age estimation. The method most frequently employed is the Greulich and Pyle (GP) method. In addition, the so-called bone-specific techniques are also applied including the method of Tanner Whitehouse (TW) in the latest versions TW2 and TW3. To compare skeletal age and chronological age in a large sample of children and adolescents using GP, TW2 and TW3 methods in order to establish which of these is the most reliable for forensic purposes. The sample consisted of 307 HW-XRs of Italian children or adolescents, 145 females and 162 males aged between 6 and 20 years. The radiographies were scored according to the GP, TW2RUS and TW3RUS methods by one investigator. The results' reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient. Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Student t-test were performed to search for significant differences between skeletal and chronological ages. The distributions of the differences between estimated and chronological age, by means of boxplots, show how median differences for TW3 and GP methods are generally very close to 0. Hypothesis tests' results were obtained, with respect to the sex, both for the entire group of individuals and people grouped by age. Results show no significant differences among estimated and chronological age for TW3 and, to a lesser extent, GP. The TW2 proved to be the worst of the three methods. Our results support the conclusion that the TW2 method is not reliable for AE for forensic purpose. The GP and TW3 methods have proved to be reliable in males. For females, the best method was found to be TW3. When performing forensic age estimation in subjects around 14 years of age, it could be advisable to use and associate the TW3 and GP methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geomagnetic polarity epochs: Nunivak Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, A.; Dalrymple, G.B.

1967-01-01

New paleomagnetic and potassium-argon dating measurements have been made of basalt flows from Nunivak Island, Alaska, with the following results. (1) The best estimate of the age of the Brunhes/Matuyama polarity epoch boundary is found to be 0.694 m.y. (2) The best estimate of the age of the Gauss/Gilbert boundary is 3.32 m.y. (3) Three normally magnetized flows with ages from 0.93 to 0.88 m.y. are in accord with previous estimates of the age and duration of the Jaramillo normal event. (4) One normally magnetized flow with an age of 1.65 ?? 0.09 m.y. supplies additional evidence for the Gilsa?? normal event. (5) Two new normal events are identified within the Gilbert reversed epoch, the "Cochiti normal event" with an age of 3.7 m.y. and the "Nunivak normal event" with an age of 4.1 m.y. ?? 1967.

Evaluating the potential risks and benefits of infant rotavirus vaccination in England.

PubMed

Clark, Andy; Jit, Mark; Andrews, Nick; Atchison, Christina; Edmunds, W John; Sanderson, Colin

2014-06-17

Rotarix(®), a vaccine for the prevention of gastroenteritis in young children, was introduced in England in July 2013. At around this time, an elevated risk of intussusception (a cause of bowel obstruction) was reported among infants vaccinated in Australia and the USA. A risk-benefit analysis compared potential vaccine-related risks (additional intussusception admissions and deaths) with estimated vaccine benefits (prevented rotavirus general practitioner visits, emergency visits, admissions and deaths) in the 2012 birth cohort. Detailed data from England included the incidence of intussusception events aged <2 years by week of age, the coverage of vaccination aged <2 years by week of age, and the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) events aged <5 years by week of age. Recent estimates of vaccine-related risk from Australia were applied during the 1-21 day period after the first and second dose of vaccination. Rotarix(®) is estimated to cause one additional intussusception admission in every 18,551 vaccinated English infants (5th and 95th percentiles, 6728-93,952), equivalent to 35 (7-98) additional intussusception admissions each year. The vaccine is estimated to prevent three rotavirus deaths, 13,000 rotavirus admissions, 27,000 rotavirus emergency visits and 74,000 rotavirus GP consultations in children aged <5 years, and lead to annual savings of over £11 million, each year. We estimate 375 (136-1900) fewer RVGE admissions for every additional intussusception admission, and 88 (18-852) fewer RVGE deaths for every additional intussusception death. The estimated benefits of Rotarix(®) vaccination would greatly exceed the potential risk in England. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reassessment of spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias age and growth using vertebrae and dorsal-fin spines.

PubMed

Bubley, W J; Kneebone, J; Sulikowski, J A; Tsang, P C W

2012-04-01

Male and female spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias were collected in the western North Atlantic Ocean in the Gulf of Maine between July 2006 and June 2009. Squalus acanthias ranged from 25 to 102 cm stretch total length and were caught during all months of the year except January. Age estimates derived from banding patterns visible in both the vertebrae and second dorsal-fin spines were compared. Vertebral growth increments were visualized using a modified histological staining technique, which was verified as appropriate for obtaining age estimates. Marginal increment analysis of vertebrae verified the increment periodicity, suggesting annual band deposition. Based on increased precision and accuracy of age estimates, as well as more biologically realistic parameters generated in growth models, the current study found that vertebrae provided a more reliable and accurate means of estimating age in S. acanthias than the second dorsal-fin spine. Age estimates obtained from vertebrae ranged from <1 year-old to 17 years for male and 24 years for female S. acanthias. The two-parameter von Bertalanffy growth model fit to vertebrae-derived age estimates produced parameters of L∞ = 94·23 cm and k = 0·11 for males and L∞ = 100·76 cm and k = 0·12 for females. While these growth parameters differed from those previously reported for S. acanthias in the western North Atlantic Ocean, the causes of such differences were beyond the scope of the current study and remain to be determined. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

On the confounds among retest gains and age-cohort differences in the estimation of within-person change in longitudinal studies: a simulation study.

PubMed

Hoffman, Lesa; Hofer, Scott M; Sliwinski, Martin J

2011-12-01

Although longitudinal designs are the only way in which age changes can be directly observed, a recurrent criticism involves to what extent retest effects may downwardly bias estimates of true age-related cognitive change. Considerable attention has been given to the problem of retest effects within mixed effects models that include separate parameters for longitudinal change over time (usually specified as a function of age) and for the impact of retest (specified as a function of number of exposures). Because time (i.e., intervals between assessment) and number of exposures are highly correlated (and are perfectly correlated in equal interval designs) in most longitudinal studies, the separation of effects of within-person change from effects of retest gains is only possible given certain assumptions (e.g., age convergence). To the extent that cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of age differ, obtained estimates of aging and retest may not be informative. The current simulation study investigated the recovery of within-person change (i.e., aging) and retest effects from repeated cognitive testing as a function of number of waves, age range at baseline, and size and direction of age-cohort differences on the intercept and age slope in age-based models of change. Significant bias and Type I error rates in the estimated effects of retest were observed when these convergence assumptions were not met. These simulation results suggest that retest effects may not be distinguishable from effects of aging-related change and age-cohort differences in typical long-term traditional longitudinal designs.

Assessment of Demirjian's 8-teeth technique of age estimation and Indian-specific formulas in an East Indian population: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Rath, Hemamalini; Rath, Rachna; Mahapatra, Sandeep; Debta, Tribikram

2017-01-01

The age of an individual can be assessed by a plethora of widely available tooth-based techniques, among which radiological methods prevail. The Demirjian's technique of age assessment based on tooth development stages has been extensively investigated in different populations of the world. The present study is to assess the applicability of Demirjian's modified 8-teeth technique in age estimation of population of East India (Odisha), utilizing Acharya's Indian-specific cubic functions. One hundred and six pretreatment orthodontic radiographs of patients in an age group of 7-23 years with representation from both genders were assessed for eight left mandibular teeth and scored as per the Demirjian's 9-stage criteria for teeth development stages. Age was calculated on the basis of Acharya's Indian formula. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the estimated and actual age. All data were analyzed using SPSS 20.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA) and MS Excel Package. The results revealed that the mean absolute error (MAE) in age estimation of the entire sample was 1.3 years with 50% of the cases having an error rate within ± 1 year. The MAE in males and females (7-16 years) was 1.8 and 1.5, respectively. Likewise, the MAE in males and females (16.1-23 years) was 1.1 and 1.3, respectively. The low error rate in estimating age justifies the application of this modified technique and Acharya's Indian formulas in the present East Indian population.

The 'robust' capture-recapture design allows components of recruitment to be estimated

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Lebreton, J.-D.; North, P.M.

1993-01-01

The 'robust' capture-recapture design (Pollock 1982) allows analyses which combine features of closed population model analyses (Otis et aI., 1978, White et aI., 1982) and open population model analyses (Pollock et aI., 1990). Estimators obtained under these analyses are more robust to unequal catch ability than traditional Jolly-Seber estimators (Pollock, 1982; Pollock et al., 1990; Kendall, 1992). The robust design also allows estimation of parameters for population size, survival rate and recruitment numbers for all periods of the study unlike under Jolly-Seber type models. The major advantage of this design that we emphasize in this short review paper is that it allows separate estimation of immigration and in situ recruitment numbers for a two or more age class model (Nichols and Pollock, 1990). This is contrasted with the age-dependent Jolly-Seber model (Pollock, 1981; Stokes, 1984; Pollock et L, 1990) which provides separate estimates for immigration and in situ recruitment for all but the first two age classes where there is at least a three age class model. The ability to achieve this separation of recruitment components can be very important to population modelers and wildlife managers as many species can only be separated into two easily identified age classes in the field.

Determination of timescales of nitrate contamination by groundwater age models in a complex aquifer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, E. H.; Lee, E.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.; Green, C. T.

2017-12-01

Timing and magnitudes of nitrate contamination are determined by various factors like contaminant loading, recharge characteristics and geologic system. Information of an elapsed time since recharged water traveling to a certain outlet location, which is defined as groundwater age, can provide indirect interpretation related to the hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system. There are three major methods (apparent ages, lumped parameter model, and numerical model) to date groundwater ages, which differently characterize groundwater mixing resulted by various groundwater flow pathways in a heterogeneous aquifer system. Therefore, in this study, we compared the three age models in a complex aquifer system by using observed age tracer data and reconstructed history of nitrate contamination by long-term source loading. The 3H-3He and CFC-12 apparent ages, which did not consider the groundwater mixing, estimated the most delayed response time and a highest period of the nitrate loading had not reached yet. However, the lumped parameter model could generate more recent loading response than the apparent ages and the peak loading period influenced the water quality. The numerical model could delineate various groundwater mixing components and its different impacts on nitrate dynamics in the complex aquifer system. The different age estimation methods lead to variations in the estimated contaminant loading history, in which the discrepancy in the age estimation was dominantly observed in the complex aquifer system.

The expected benefit of preventive mastectomy on breast cancer incidence and mortality in BRCA mutation carriers, by age at mastectomy.

PubMed

Giannakeas, Vasily; Narod, Steven A

2018-01-01

Preventive breast surgery is offered to unaffected BRCA mutation carriers to prevent breast cancer incidence and mortality. The clinical benefit of preventive mastectomy can be measured in several ways, including extension of life expectancy (mean years of life gained) and by estimating the probability of surviving until age 80. We sought to estimate the expected benefit of a preventive mastectomy at various ages, using these indices of mortality, by simulating hypothetical cohorts of women. The age-specific annual risks of developing breast cancer were used to estimate the actuarial risk of developing breast cancer by age 80 for women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. The probability of developing breast cancer before age 80 was then modified to include competing causes of death, including from ovarian cancer. The mortality rate from breast cancer after a diagnosis of breast cancer was set at 2% annually for the first 10 years and then 1% annually for years ten to twenty. The incidence rate and mortality rate from ovarian cancer were based on published literature. We assumed that preventive mastectomy was associated with complete protection against subsequent breast cancer. A series of simulations was conducted to evaluate the reduction in the probability of death (from all causes) until age 80, according to the age at mastectomy. The actuarial risk of developing breast cancer until age 80 was estimated to be 70.8%. The actual risk (incorporating competing risks) was 64.0%. The probability of being alive at age 80 by having a mastectomy at age 25 increased by 8.7% (from 42.7 to 51.3%). The estimated benefit declined with age at mastectomy; for surgery done at age 50 the improvement in survival to age 80 was much more modest (2.8% at age 80, from 42.7 to 45.5%). Among BRCA mutation carriers, the mortality benefit of preventive mastectomy at age 25 is substantial, but the expected benefit declines rapidly with increasing age at surgery.

Development of a biometric method to estimate age on hand radiographs.

PubMed

Remy, Floriane; Hossu, Gabriela; Cendre, Romain; Micard, Emilien; Mainard-Simard, Laurence; Felblinger, Jacques; Martrille, Laurent; Lalys, Loïc

2017-02-01

Age estimation of living individuals aged less than 13, 18 or 21 years, which are some relevant legal ages in most European countries, is currently problematic in the forensic context. Thus, numerous methods are available for legal authorities, although their efficiency can be discussed. For those reasons, we aimed to propose a new method, based on the biometric analysis of hand bones. 451 hand radiographs of French individuals under the age of 21 were retrospectively analyzed. This total sample was divided into three subgroups bounded by the relevant legal ages previously mentioned: 0-13, 13-18 and 18-21 years. On these radiographs, we numerically applied the osteometric board method used in anthropology, by including each metacarpal and proximal phalange of the five hand rays in the smallest rectangle possible. In that we can access their length and width information thanks to a measurement protocol developed precisely for our treatment with the ORS Visual ® software. Then, a statistical analysis was performed from these biometric data: a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) evaluated the probability for an individual to belong to one of the age group (0-13, 13-18 or 18-21); and several multivariate regression models were tested for the establishment of age estimation formulas for each of these age groups. The mean Correlation Coefficient between chronological age and both lengths and widths of hand bones is equal to 0.90 for the total sample. Repeatability and reproducibility were assessed. The LDA could more easily predict the belonging to the 0-13 age group. Age can be estimated with a mean standard error which never exceeds 1 year for the 95% confidence interval. Finally, compared to the literature, we can conclude that estimating an age from the biometric information of metacarpals and proximal phalanges is promising. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Hip dysplasia in labrador retrievers: the effects of age at scoring.

PubMed

Wood, J L N; Lakhani, K H

2003-01-11

Selective breeding policies for preventing or controlling hip dysplasia require accurate estimates of parameters in offspring/parental relationships and estimates of heritability. Recent literature includes some major studies of pedigree breeds of dog, using data derived from the hip dysplasia screening scheme set up by the British Veterinary Association. These publications have not taken into account the age of the animals when they were screened. This study analyses the data from 29,213 labrador retrievers whose ages were known when they screened. The mean hip score of the dogs was positively and significantly correlated with their age. If this relationship with age is ignored, various offspring/parental relationships and the estimates of heritability are likely to be distorted.

Age at exposure to ionising radiation and cancer mortality among Hanford workers: follow up through 1994

PubMed Central

Wing, S; Richardson, D

2005-01-01

Background: Studies of workers at the plutonium production factory in Hanford, WA have led to conflicting conclusions about the role of age at exposure as a modifier of associations between ionising radiation and cancer. Aims: To evaluate the influence of age at exposure on radiation risk estimates in an updated follow up of Hanford workers. Methods: A cohort of 26 389 workers hired between 1944 and 1978 was followed through 1994 to ascertain vital status and causes of death. External radiation dose estimates were derived from personal dosimeters. Poisson regression was used to estimate associations between mortality and cumulative external radiation dose at all ages, and in specific age ranges. Results: A total of 8153 deaths were identified, 2265 of which included cancer as an underlying or contributory cause. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Sievert (ERR/Sv) for cumulative radiation doses at all ages combined were negative for all cause and leukaemia and positive for all cancer and lung cancer. Cumulative doses accrued at ages below 35, 35–44, and 45–54 showed little association with mortality. For cumulative dose accrued at ages 55 and above (10 year lag), the estimated ERR/Sv for all cancers was 3.24 (90% CI: 0.80 to 6.17), primarily due to an association with lung cancer (ERR/Sv: 9.05, 90% CI: 2.96 to 17.92). Conclusions: Associations between radiation and cancer mortality in this cohort are primarily a function of doses at older ages and deaths from lung cancer. The association of older age radiation exposures and cancer mortality is similar to observations from several other occupational studies. PMID:15961623

Sex differences in the association between countries' smoking prevalence and happiness ratings.

PubMed

Drehmer, J E

2018-05-02

To examine the cross-sectional relationship between measures of countries' happiness and countries' prevalence of tobacco smoking. Since smoking prevalence differs widely based on sex in some countries and is similar in other countries, it was examined if there was a sex difference in the relationship between smoking prevalence and country-specific happiness ratings. Ecological study design. Countries' age-standardized prevalence estimates of smoking any tobacco product among persons aged 15 years and older (%) for 2015 were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Observatory. Country-specific scores from the World Happiness Report 2016 Update Ranking of Happiness (2013-15) and the 2015 Gallup Positive Experience Index were matched and correlated to 2015 WHO estimates of tobacco smoking prevalence for males and females. The difference between male and female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates in each country was calculated by subtracting female prevalence from male prevalence and was then correlated to countries' World Happiness Report scores. The analyses did not control for potential confounders. The association between male age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores was inversely correlated [r(104) = -0.22, P = 0.03], whereas the association between female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores was positively correlated [r(104) = 0.48, P = 0.00]. An inverse correlation was found between the difference in male and female smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores [r(104) = -0.50, P = 0.00]. The association between countries' male age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and the Positive Experience Index scores was inversely correlated [r(99) = -0.37, P = 0.00], whereas the female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates in countries were not significantly associated with Positive Experience Index scores [r(99) = -0.03, P = 0.75]. There are distinct sex differences between the amounts of happiness measured in countries and male and female smoking rates. Greater inequality in age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates between males and females is associated with lower amounts of happiness as measured by the World Happiness Report. These findings can be applied to population-based strategies aimed at reducing national smoking rates in men and women. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis.

PubMed

Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

2016-01-01

Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Sixty subjects aged 20-85 years were included in the study. For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections-cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root-were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation ( r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level.

Childbearing in adolescents aged 12-15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries.

PubMed

Neal, Sarah; Matthews, Zoë; Frost, Melanie; Fogstad, Helga; Camacho, Alma V; Laski, Laura

2012-09-01

There is strong evidence that the health risks associated with adolescent pregnancy are concentrated among the youngest girls (e.g. those under 16 years). Fertility rates in this age group have not previously been comprehensively estimated and published. By drawing data from 42 large, nationally representative household surveys in low resource countries carried out since 2003 this article presents estimates of age-specific birth rates for girls aged 12-15, and the percentage of girls who give birth at age 15 or younger. From these we estimate that approximately 2.5 million births occur to girls aged under 16 in low resource countries each year. The highest rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Sierra Leone more than 10% of girls become mothers before they are 16. Strategies to reduce these high levels are vital if we are to alleviate poor reproductive health. © 2012 The Authors  Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2012 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

PubMed

Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

2010-10-01

Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

PubMed Central

Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

2013-01-01

Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars.

PubMed

Lewis, Amitha J; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K P; Manaktala, Nidhi

2015-01-01

The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R (2) varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development.

Cost-Sensitive Local Binary Feature Learning for Facial Age Estimation.

PubMed

Lu, Jiwen; Liong, Venice Erin; Zhou, Jie

2015-12-01

In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary feature learning (CS-LBFL) method for facial age estimation. Unlike the conventional facial age estimation methods that employ hand-crafted descriptors or holistically learned descriptors for feature representation, our CS-LBFL method learns discriminative local features directly from raw pixels for face representation. Motivated by the fact that facial age estimation is a cost-sensitive computer vision problem and local binary features are more robust to illumination and expression variations than holistic features, we learn a series of hashing functions to project raw pixel values extracted from face patches into low-dimensional binary codes, where binary codes with similar chronological ages are projected as close as possible, and those with dissimilar chronological ages are projected as far as possible. Then, we pool and encode these local binary codes within each face image as a real-valued histogram feature for face representation. Moreover, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary multi-feature learning method to jointly learn multiple sets of hashing functions using face patches extracted from different scales to exploit complementary information. Our methods achieve competitive performance on four widely used face aging data sets.

Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in elastin from the yellow ligaments.

PubMed

Ritz-Timme, S; Laumeier, I; Collins, M

2003-04-01

The yellow ligaments of the spine are characterized by an exceptionally high content of elastin, a protein with a proved longevity in several human tissues. This unique biochemical composition suggested a suitability of yellow ligaments for age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization (AAR), which was tested by determination of AAR in total tissue specimens and in purified elastin from yellow ligaments of individuals of known age. AAR was found to increase with age in both sample sets. The purified elastin samples exhibited a much faster kinetics than the total tissue, with ca. 3.7-4.6-fold higher apparent rates. The relationship between AAR and age was much closer in the purified elastin samples ( r=0.96-0.99) and it can therefore be used as a basis for biochemical age estimation. The analysis of total tissue samples cannot be recommended since the AAR values can be strongly influenced even by slight, histologically non-detectable variations in the collagen content. Age estimation based on AAR in purified elastin from yellow ligaments may be a valuable additional tool in the identification of unidentified cadavers, especially in cases where other methods cannot be applied (e.g. no available teeth, body parts).

A Novel Method for Age Estimation in Solar-Type Stars Through GALEX FUV Magnitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Kelly; Subramonian, Arjun; Smith, Graeme; Shouru Shieh

2018-01-01

Utilizing an inverse association known to exist between Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes and the chromospheric activity of F, G, and K dwarfs, we explored a method of age estimation in solar-type stars through GALEX FUV magnitudes. Sample solar-type star data were collected from refereed publications and filtered by B-V and absolute visual magnitude to ensure similarities in temperature and luminosity to the Sun. We determined FUV-B and calculated a residual index Q for all the stars, using the temperature-induced upper bound on FUV-B as the fiducial. Plotting current age estimates for the stars against Q, we discovered a strong and significant association between the variables. By applying a log-linear transformation to the data to produce a strong correlation between Q and loge Age, we confirmed the association between Q and age to be exponential. Thus, least-squares regression was used to generate an exponential model relating Q to age in solar-type stars, which can be used by astronomers. The Q-method of stellar age estimation is simple and more efficient than existing spectroscopic methods and has applications to galactic archaeology and stellar chemical composition analysis.

Telomeres shorten more slowly in slow-aging wild animals than in fast-aging ones.

PubMed

Dantzer, Ben; Fletcher, Quinn E

2015-11-01

Research on the physiological causes of senescence aim to identify common physiological mechanisms that explain age-related declines in fitness across taxonomic groups. Telomeres are repetitive nucleotide sequences found on the ends of eukaryotic chromosomes. Past research indicates that telomere attrition is strongly correlated with inter-specific rates of aging, though these studies cannot distinguish whether telomere attrition is a cause or consequence of the aging process. We extend previous research on this topic by incorporating recent studies to test the hypothesis that telomeres shorten more slowly with age in slow-aging animals than in fast-aging ones. We assembled all studies that have quantified cross-sectional (i.e. between-individual) telomere rates of change (TROC) over the lifespans of wild animals. This included 22 estimates reflecting absolute TROC (TROCabs, bp/yr, primarily measured using the terminal restriction fragment length method), and 10 estimates reflecting relative TROC (TROCrel, relative telomere length/yr, measured using qPCR), from five classes (Aves, Mammalia, Bivalvia, Reptilia, and Actinopterygii). In 14 bird species, we correlated between-individual (i.e. cross-sectional) TROCabs estimates with both maximum lifespan and a phylogenetically-corrected principle component axis (pcPC1) that reflected the slow-fast axis of life-history variation. Bird species characterized by faster life-histories and shorter maximum lifespans had faster TROCabs. In nine studies, both between-individual and within-individual TROC estimates were available (n=8 for TROCabs, n=1 for TROCrel). Within-individual TROC estimates were generally greater than between-individual TROC estimates, which is indicative of selective disappearance of individuals with shorter telomeres. However, the difference between within- and between-individual TROC estimates was only significant in two out of nine studies. The relationship between within-individual TROCabs and maximum lifespan did not differ from the relationship of between-individual TROCabs and maximum lifespan. Overall, our results provide additional support for the hypothesis that TROC is correlated with inter-specific rates of aging and complement the intra-specific research that also find relationships between telomere attrition and components of fitness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining 'age at death' for forensic purposes using human bone by a laboratory-based biomechanical analytical method.

PubMed

Zioupos, P; Williams, A; Christodoulou, G; Giles, R

2014-05-01

Determination of age-at-death (AAD) is an important and frequent requirement in contemporary forensic science and in the reconstruction of past populations and societies from their remains. Its estimation is relatively straightforward and accurate (±3yr) for immature skeletons by using morphological features and reference tables within the context of forensic anthropology. However, after skeletal maturity (>35yr) estimates become inaccurate, particularly in the legal context. In line with the general migration of all the forensic sciences from reliance upon empirical criteria to those which are more evidence-based, AAD determination should rely more-and-more upon more quantitative methods. We explore here whether well-known changes in the biomechanical properties of bone and the properties of bone matrix, which have been seen to change with age even after skeletal maturity in a traceable manner, can be used to provide a reliable estimate of AAD. This method charts a combination of physical characteristics some of which are measured at a macroscopic level (wet & dry apparent density, porosity, organic/mineral/water fractions, collagen thermal degradation properties, ash content) and others at the microscopic level (Ca/P ratios, osteonal and matrix microhardness, image analysis of sections). This method produced successful age estimates on a cohort of 12 donors of age 53-85yr (7 male, 5 female), where the age of the individual could be approximated within less than ±1yr. This represents a vastly improved level of accuracy than currently extant age estimation techniques. It also presents: (1) a greater level of reliability and objectivity as the results are not dependent on the experience and expertise of the observer, as is so often the case in forensic skeletal age estimation methods; (2) it is purely laboratory-based analytical technique which can be carried out by someone with technical skills and not the specialised forensic anthropology experience; (3) it can be applied worldwide following stringent laboratory protocols. As such, this technique contributes significantly to improving age estimation and therefore identification methods for forensic and other purposes. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of self-reported age at nonsurgical menopause on time to first fracture and bone mineral density in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

PubMed

Sullivan, Shannon D; Lehman, Amy; Thomas, Fridtjof; Johnson, Karen C; Jackson, Rebecca; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Ko, Marcia; Chen, Zhao; Curb, J David; Howard, Barbara V

2015-10-01

Menopause is a risk factor for fracture; thus, menopause age may affect bone mass and fracture rates. We compared bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture rates among healthy postmenopausal women with varying ages at self-reported nonsurgical menopause. We compared hazard ratios for fractures and differences in BMD among 21,711 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study cohort who had no prior hysterectomy, oophorectomy, or hormone therapy and had varying self-reported ages at menopause (<40, 40-49, or ≥50 y). Before multivariable adjustments, we found no differences in absolute fracture risk among menopause age groups. After multivariable adjustments for known risk factors for fracture, women who underwent menopause before age 40 years had a higher fracture risk at any site compared with women who underwent menopause at age 50 years or older (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.44; P = 0.03). In a subset with BMD measurements (n = 1,351), whole-body BMD was lower in women who reported menopause before age 40 years than in women who reported menopause at ages 40 to 49 years (estimated difference, -0.034 g/cm; 95% CI, -0.07 to -0.004; P = 0.03) and women who reported menopause at age 50 years or older (estimated difference, -0.05 g/cm; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.02; P < 0.01). Left hip BMD was lower in women who underwent menopause before age 40 years than in women who underwent menopause at age 50 years or older (estimated difference, -0.05 g/cm; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.01; P = 0.01), and total spine BMD was lower in women who underwent menopause before age 40 years than in women who underwent menopause at age 50 years or older (estimated difference, -0.11 g/cm; 95% CI, -0.16 to -0.06; P < 0.01) and women who underwent menopause at ages 40 to 49 years (estimated difference, -0.09 g/cm; 95% CI, -0.15 to -0.04; P < 0.01). In the absence of hormone therapy, younger age at menopause may be a risk factor contributing to decreased BMD and increased fracture risk in healthy postmenopausal women. Our data suggest that menopause age should be taken into consideration, along with other osteoporotic risk factors, when estimating fracture risk in postmenopausal women.

Cervical cancer screening of underserved women in the United States: results from the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program, 1997-2012.

PubMed

Tangka, Florence K L; Howard, David H; Royalty, Janet; Dalzell, Lucinda P; Miller, Jacqueline; O'Hara, Brett J; Sabatino, Susan A; Joseph, Kristy; Kenney, Kristy; Guy, Gery P; Hall, Ingrid J

2015-05-01

The National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) provides breast and cervical cancer screens to low-income, uninsured, and underinsured women. We describe the number and proportion of women eligible for cervical cancer screening services and the proportion of eligible women screened over the period 1997-2012. Low-income, uninsured, and underinsured women aged 18-64 years who have not had a hysterectomy are eligible for cervical cancer screening through the NBCCEDP. We estimated the number of low-income, uninsured women using data from the US Census Bureau. We adjusted our estimates for hysterectomy status using the National Health Interview Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We used data from the NBCCEDP to describe the number of women receiving NBCCEDP-funded screening and calculated the proportion of eligible women who received screening through the NBCCEDP at the national level (by age group, race/ethnicity) and at the state level by age group. We used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to estimate the proportion of NBCCEDP-eligible women who were screened outside the NBCCEDP and the proportion that are not screened. We estimate that in 2010-2012, 705,970 women aged 18-64 years, 6.5 % (705,970 of 9.8 million) of the eligible population, received NBCCEDP-funded Pap tests. We estimate that 60.2 % of eligible women aged 18-64 years were screened outside the NBCCEDP and 33.3 % were not screened. The NBCCEDP provided 623,603 screens to women aged 40-64 years, an estimated 16.5 % of the eligible population, and 83,660 screens to women aged 18-39 years, representing an estimated 1.2 % of the eligible population. The estimated proportions of eligible women screened in each state ranged from 1.5 to 32.7 % and 5 % to 73.2 % among the 18-64 and 40-64 years age groups, respectively. Changes in the proportion of eligible women screened over the study period were nonsignificant. Although the program provided cervical screening to over 700,000 women between 2010 and 2012, it served a small percent of those eligible. The proportion of women screened varied substantially across age groups, racial/ethnic groups, and states. Many low-income, uninsured women are not being screened.

Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

PubMed

Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

1998-01-01

Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in young Australian women is higher than previously estimated: independent estimates from a nationally representative mobile phone survey.

PubMed

Brotherton, Julia M L; Liu, Bette; Donovan, Basil; Kaldor, John M; Saville, Marion

2014-01-23

Accurate estimates of coverage are essential for estimating the population effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Australia has a purpose built National HPV Vaccination Program Register for monitoring coverage, however notification of doses administered to young women in the community during the national catch-up program (2007-2009) was not compulsory. In 2011, we undertook a population-based mobile phone survey of young women to independently estimate HPV vaccination coverage. Randomly generated mobile phone numbers were dialed to recruit women aged 22-30 (age eligible for HPV vaccination) to complete a computer assisted telephone interview. Consent was sought to validate self reported HPV vaccination status against the national register. Coverage rates were calculated based on self report and weighted to the age and state of residence structure of the Australian female population. These were compared with coverage estimates from the register using Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated resident populations as the denominator. Among the 1379 participants, the national estimate for self reported HPV vaccination coverage for doses 1/2/3, respectively, weighted for age and state of residence, was 64/59/53%. This compares with coverage of 55/45/32% and 49/40/28% based on register records, using 2007 and 2011 population data as the denominators respectively. Some significant differences in coverage between the states were identified. 20% (223) of women returned a consent form allowing validation of doses against the register and provider records: among these women 85.6% (538) of self reported doses were confirmed. We confirmed that coverage rates for young women vaccinated in the community (at age 18-26 years) are underestimated by the national register and that under-notification is greater for second and third doses. Using 2011 population estimates, rather than estimates contemporaneous with the program rollout, reduces register-based coverage estimates further because of large population increases due to immigration since the program. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating Growth Variability of the Ilium, Fifth Lumbar Vertebra, and Clavicle with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Models for Subadult Age Estimation.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Telmon, Norbert; Chaumoitre, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2018-05-31

Subadult age estimation should rely on sampling and statistical protocols capturing development variability for more accurate age estimates. In this perspective, measurements were taken on the fifth lumbar vertebrae and/or clavicles of 534 French males and females aged 0-19 years and the ilia of 244 males and females aged 0-12 years. These variables were fitted in nonparametric multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models with 95% prediction intervals (PIs) of age. The models were tested on two independent samples from Marseille and the Luis Lopes reference collection from Lisbon. Models using ilium width and module, maximum clavicle length, and lateral vertebral body heights were more than 92% accurate. Precision was lower for postpubertal individuals. Integrating punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and the variables and dynamic prediction intervals incorporated the normal increase in interindividual growth variability (heteroscedasticity of variance) with age for more biologically accurate predictions. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Who perpetrates violence against children? A systematic analysis of age-specific and sex-specific data.

PubMed

Devries, Karen; Knight, Louise; Petzold, Max; Merrill, Katherine G; Maxwell, Lauren; Williams, Abigail; Cappa, Claudia; Chan, Ko Ling; Garcia-Moreno, Claudia; Hollis, NaTasha; Kress, Howard; Peterman, Amber; Walsh, Sophie D; Kishor, Sunita; Guedes, Alessandra; Bott, Sarah; Butron Riveros, Betzabe C; Watts, Charlotte; Abrahams, Naeemah

2018-01-01

The epidemiology of violence against children is likely to differ substantially by sex and age of the victim and the perpetrator. Thus far, investment in effective prevention strategies has been hindered by lack of clarity in the burden of childhood violence across these dimensions. We produced the first age-specific and sex-specific prevalence estimates by perpetrator type for physical, sexual and emotional violence against children globally. We used random effects meta-regression to estimate prevalence. Estimates were adjusted for relevant quality covariates, variation in definitions of violence and weighted by region-specific, age-specific and sex-specific population data to ensure estimates reflect country population structures. Secondary data from 600 population or school-based representative datasets and 43 publications obtained via systematic literature review, representing 13 830 estimates from 171 countries. Estimates for recent violence against children aged 0-19 were included. The most common perpetrators of physical and emotional violence for both boys and girls across a range of ages are household members, with prevalence often surpassing 50%, followed by student peers. Children reported experiencing more emotional than physical violence from both household members and students. The most common perpetrators of sexual violence against girls aged 15-19 years are intimate partners; however, few data on other perpetrators of sexual violence against children are systematically collected internationally. Few age-specific and sex-specific data are available on violence perpetration by schoolteachers; however, existing data indicate high prevalence of physical violence from teachers towards students. Data from other authority figures, strangers, siblings and other adults are limited, as are data on neglect of children. Without further investment in data generation on violence exposure from multiple perpetrators for boys and girls of all ages, progress towards Sustainable Development Goals 4, 5 and 16 may be slow. Despite data gaps, evidence shows violence from household members, peers in school and for girls, from intimate partners, should be prioritised for prevention. PROSPERO 2015: CRD42015024315.

Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, W. P.

2017-12-01

A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

The sensitivity of length of pregnancy using clinical estimate of gestation versus last menstrual period: an example with particulate matter and preterm birth

EPA Science Inventory

Estimating gestational age is usually based on last menstrual period date (LMP) or clinical estimation (CGA); both approaches introduce error and potential bias. Differences in the two methods of gestational age assignment may lead to misclassification and differences in risk est...

Virtual anthropology: useful radiological tools for age assessment in clinical forensic medicine and thanatology.

PubMed

Dedouit, Fabrice; Saint-Martin, Pauline; Mokrane, Fatima-Zohra; Savall, Frédéric; Rousseau, Hervé; Crubézy, Eric; Rougé, Daniel; Telmon, Norbert

2015-09-01

Virtual anthropology consists of the introduction of modern slice imaging to biological and forensic anthropology. Thanks to this non-invasive scientific revolution, some classifications and staging systems, first based on dry bone analysis, can be applied to cadavers with no need for specific preparation, as well as to living persons. Estimation of bone and dental age is one of the possibilities offered by radiology. Biological age can be estimated in clinical forensic medicine as well as in living persons. Virtual anthropology may also help the forensic pathologist to estimate a deceased person's age at death, which together with sex, geographical origin and stature, is one of the important features determining a biological profile used in reconstructive identification. For this forensic purpose, the radiological tools used are multislice computed tomography and, more recently, X-ray free imaging techniques such as magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound investigations. We present and discuss the value of these investigations for age estimation in anthropology.

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

PubMed

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Estimating the prevalence of female genital mutilation in Portugal.

PubMed

Teixeira, A L; Lisboa, M

2016-10-01

Due to globalized migratory processes, female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) has spread to other countries, including countries in Europe, where, with a few exceptions, it remains a concealed problem. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first national extensive study to estimate the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal. Prevalence estimation. Using extrapolation of country-of-origin prevalence data and the 2011 Census data, this study estimated: the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and among all women aged ≥15 years; and the number of girls aged <15 years living in Portugal who have undergone or will probably undergo FGM/C. It is estimated that 6576 women aged ≥15 years living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, with cases distributed unevenly throughout the national territory. In addition, it is estimated that 1830 girls aged <15 years living in Portugal have undergone or are likely to undergo FGM/C. This study estimated that more than 6000 women living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, and many girls remain at risk. These two groups need different types of interventions. Awareness of the number and geographical dispersion of cases of FGM/C will enable more informed and targeted definition of public health policies for protection of females who have undergone or are at risk of undergoing FGM/C. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Gestational Age From Ultrasound Fetal Biometrics.

PubMed

Skupski, Daniel W; Owen, John; Kim, Sungduk; Fuchs, Karin M; Albert, Paul S; Grantz, Katherine L

2017-08-01

To compare the accuracy of a new formula with one developed in 1984 (and still in common use) and to develop and compare racial and ethnic-specific and racial and ethnic-neutral formulas. The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons was a prospective cohort study that recruited women in four self-reported racial-ethnic groups-non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and Asian-with singleton gestations from 12 U.S. centers (2009-2013). Women with a certain last menstrual period confirmed by first-trimester ultrasonogram had longitudinal fetal measurements by credentialed study ultrasonographers blinded to the gestational age at their five follow-up visits. Regression analyses were performed with linear mixed models to develop gestational age estimating formulas. Repeated cross-validation was used for validation. The estimation error was defined as the mean squared difference between the estimated and observed gestational age and was used to compare the formulas' accuracy. The new formula estimated the gestational age (±2 SD) within ±7 days from 14 to 20 weeks of gestation, ±10 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation, and ±17 days from 28 to 40 weeks of gestation. The new formula performed significantly better than a formula developed in 1984 with an estimation error of 10.4 compared with 11.2 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation and 17.0 compared with 19.8 days at 28-40 weeks of gestation, respectively. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas did not outperform the racial and ethnic-neutral formula. The NICHD gestational age estimation formula is associated with smaller errors than a well-established historical formula. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas are not superior to a racial-ethnic-neutral one.

Anticipating rotavirus vaccines--a pre-vaccine assessment of incidence and economic burden of rotavirus hospitalizations among children < 5 year of age in Libya, 2012-13.

PubMed

Alkoshi, Salem; Leshem, Eyal; Parashar, Umesh D; Dahlui, Maznah

2015-01-24

Libya introduced rotavirus vaccine in October 2013. We examined pre-vaccine incidence of rotavirus hospitalizations and associated economic burden among children < 5 years in Libya to provide baseline data for future vaccine impact evaluations. Prospective, hospital-based active surveillance for rotavirus was conducted at three public hospitals in two cities during August 2012 - April 2013. Clinical, demographic and estimated cost data were collected from children <5 hospitalized for diarrhea; stool specimens were tested for rotavirus with a commercial enzyme immunoassay. Annual rotavirus hospitalization incidence rate estimates included a conservative estimate based on the number of cases recorded during the nine months and an extrapolation to estimate 12 months incidence rate. National rotavirus disease and economic burden were estimated by extrapolating incidence and cost data to the national population of children aged < 5 years. A total of 410 children < 5 years of age with diarrhea were enrolled, of whom 239 (58%) tested positive rotavirus, yielding an incidence range of 418-557 rotavirus hospitalizations per 100,000 children < 5 years of age. Most (86%) rotavirus cases were below two years of age with a distinct seasonal peak in winter (December-March) months. The total cost of treatment for each rotavirus patient was estimated at US$ 679 (range: 200-5,423). By extrapolation, we estimated 2,948 rotavirus hospitalizations occur each year in Libyan children < 5 years of age, incurring total costs of US$ 2,001,662 (range: 1,931,726-2,094,005). Rotavirus incurs substantial morbidity and economic burden in Libya, highlighting the potential value of vaccination of Libyan children against rotavirus.

A New Approach to Estimate the Age of the Earth and the Age of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Salem, Kamel

2011-01-01

In a previous article, we proposed estimations for the age of the Universe and for the date of stabilization of its general structure on the basis of a given age of the Earth equal to 4.6 billion years. In the present article, we propose a new approach to estimate more accurately and at the same time, the age of the Earth and that of the Universe, starting from verse 4 of Sura 70 of the Qur'an. The procedure we followed and which is detailed in this article, should in our view, contribute to enlighten the debate on the question. We must add that our approach can in no case be considered as based on "concordism" or conjecture. Indeed, it rests on rigorous mathematical computations.

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Forni, S; Lôbo, R B; Albuquerque, L G

2010-03-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models on Legendre polynomials for the analysis of repeated measures of BW from birth to adult age. A total of 82,064 records from 8,145 females were analyzed. Different models were compared. The models included additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random terms. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of animal age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariables. Eight models with polynomials of third to sixth order were used to describe additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. Residual effects were modeled using 1 (i.e., assuming homogeneity of variances across all ages) or 5 age classes. The model with 5 classes was the best to describe the trajectory of residuals along the growth curve. The model including fourth- and sixth-order polynomials for additive direct and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were the best. Estimates of (co)variance obtained with the multi-trait and random regression models were similar. Direct heritability estimates obtained with the random regression models followed a trend similar to that obtained with the multi-trait model. The largest estimates of maternal heritability were those of BW taken close to 240 d of age. In general, estimates of correlation between BW from birth to 8 yr of age decreased with increasing distance between ages.

Differences between biological and chronological age-at-death in human skeletal remains: A change of perspective.

PubMed

Couoh, Lourdes R

2017-08-01

This analysis seeks to determine whether differences between real and estimated chronological age (CA) with biological age (BA) in skeletal individuals reflect variability in aging. A total of 87 individuals of two samples, ranging from 20 to 94 years old, were analyzed. One, partially documented, belongs to a Mexican skeletal collection dating to the 20th century; the other is an assemblage of prehispanic individuals from different archaeological sites. In all specimens, the tooth annulation method (TCA) was applied to estimate CA, while-excluding individuals older than 80 years-auricular surface (AS) and pubic symphysis (PS) methods were used to estimate BA. Statistical analyses were conducted to identify correlations and significance of the differences between CA vs. TCA, CA vs. AS/PS, TCA vs. AS/PS. Sex of individuals was assessed for its influence in aging. The use of TCA to estimate CA was successful for most individuals. A strong correlation was found between CA vs. TCA, CA vs. AS/PS, TCA vs. AS/PS and their differences were significant but variation in these were found when assessed by separate age groups. Sex did not influence such differences. TCA can be used to estimate CA and its differences with BA, being less than 10 years, are similar to those found in living populations. Differences between CA and BA are due to intra-population variability, which could be the consequence of individual differences in aging. More research is needed to have confidence that under- and overestimations of BA are indicators of aging variability at the level of the individual. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection and associated pelvic inflammatory disease in reproductive-aged women.

PubMed

Blandford, John M; Gift, Thomas L

2006-10-01

The productivity losses attributable to disease-related morbidity and mortality impose a burden on society in general and on employers in particular. A reliable assessment of the productivity losses associated with untreated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) would complement earlier work on direct medical costs and contribute to an estimate of the full cost of chlamydial disease. The goal of this study was to estimate the discounted lifetime productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection in reproductive-aged women. We developed a cost model using Monte Carlo methods to estimate the lifetime discounted productivity losses attributable to untreated lower genital tract Ct infection among reproductive-aged women. The model considered the impact of disability resulting from acute pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) associated with untreated Ct infection and from the sequelae of acute PID, including chronic pelvic pain, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility. To accommodate disparate Ct infection rates and labor market characteristics across age groups, we matched age-based risk factors for Ct infection with labor market patterns. Data sources included the 2001 National Chlamydia Surveillance Data, the 2001 Current Population Survey, and published literature. Estimates indicate that the mean weighted productivity losses per untreated Ct infection were approximately US dollars 130 (in year 2001 dollars). Mean weighted productivity losses per case of acute PID were estimated at US dollars 649. Estimated productivity losses were highly correlated with age, reflecting age-dependent differences in labor market characteristics. The productivity losses attributable to untreated infection with Ct and to sequelae of this infection form a substantial portion of the total economic burden of disease. Effective programs to prevent chlamydial infection and effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment of Ct-infected women may reduce productivity losses and substantially lessen the economic burden of disease to employers.

Development of new demi-span equations from a nationally representative sample of adults to estimate maximal adult height.

PubMed

Hirani, Vasant; Tabassum, Faiza; Aresu, Maria; Mindell, Jennifer

2010-08-01

Various measures have been used to estimate height when assessing nutritional status. Current equations to obtain demi-span equivalent height (DEH(Bassey)) are based on a small sample from a single study. The objectives of this study were to develop more robust DEH equations from a large number of men (n = 591) and women (n = 830) aged 25-45 y from a nationally representative cross-sectional sample (Health Survey for England 2007). Sex-specific regression equations were produced from young adults' (aged 25-45 y) measured height and demi-span to estimate new DEH equations (DEH(new)). DEH in people aged >or= 65 y was calculated using DEH(new). DEH(new) estimated current height in people aged 25-45 y with a mean difference of 0.04 in men (P = 0.80) and -0.29 in women (P = 0.05). Height, demi-span, DEH(new), and DEH(Bassey) declined by age group in both sexes aged >or=65 y (P < 0.05); DEH were larger than the measured height for all age groups (mean difference between DEH(new) and current height was -2.64 in men and -3.16 in women; both P < 0.001). Comparisons of DEH estimates showed good agreement, but DEH(new) was significantly higher than DEH(Bassey) in each age and sex group in older people. The new equations that are based on a large, randomly selected, nationally representative sample of young adults are more robust for predicting current height in young adults when height measurements are unavailable and can be used in the future to predict maximal adult height more accurately in currently young adults as they age.

Comparing Four Age Model Techniques using Nine Sediment Cores from the Iberian Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisiecki, L. E.; Jones, A. M.; Lawrence, C.

2017-12-01

Interpretations of paleoclimate records from ocean sediment cores rely on age models, which provide estimates of age as a function of core depth. Here we compare four methods used to generate age models for sediment cores for the past 140 kyr. The first method is based on radiocarbon dating using the Bayesian statistical software, Bacon [Blaauw and Christen, 2011]. The second method aligns benthic δ18O to a target core using the probabilistic alignment algorithm, HMM-Match, which also generates age uncertainty estimates [Lin et al., 2014]. The third and fourth methods are planktonic δ18O and sea surface temperature (SST) alignments to the same target core, using the alignment algorithm Match [Lisiecki and Lisiecki, 2002]. Unlike HMM-Match, Match requires parameter tuning and does not produce uncertainty estimates. The results of these four age model techniques are compared for nine high-resolution cores from the Iberian margin. The root mean square error between the individual age model results and each core's average estimated age is 1.4 kyr. Additionally, HMM-Match and Bacon age estimates agree to within uncertainty and have similar 95% confidence widths of 1-2 kyr for the highest resolution records. In one core, the planktonic and SST alignments did not fall within the 95% confidence intervals from HMM-Match. For this core, the surface proxy alignments likely produce more reliable results due to millennial-scale SST variability and the presence of several gaps in the benthic δ18O data. Similar studies of other oceanographic regions are needed to determine the spatial extents over which these climate proxies may be stratigraphically correlated.

The rate of preterm birth in the United States is affected by the method of gestational age assignment.

PubMed

Duryea, Elaine L; McIntire, Donald D; Leveno, Kenneth J

2015-08-01

The objective of the study was to examine the rate of preterm birth in the United States using 2 different methods of gestational age assignment and determine which method more closely correlates with the known morbidities associated with preterm birth. Using National Center for Health Statistics data from 2012 United States birth certificates, we computed the rate of preterm birth defined as a birth at 36 or fewer completed weeks with gestational age assigned using the obstetric estimate as specified in the revised birth certificate. This rate was then compared with the rate when gestational age is calculated using the last menstrual period alone. The rates of neonatal morbidities associated with preterm birth were examined for each method of assigning gestational age. The rate of preterm birth was 9.7% when the obstetric estimate is used to calculate gestational age, which is significantly different from the rate of 11.5% when gestational age is calculated using the last menstrual period alone. In addition, the neonates identified as preterm by obstetric estimate were more likely to qualify as low birthweight (54% vs 42%; P < .001) and suffer morbidities such as need for assisted ventilation and surfactant use than those identified with the last menstrual period alone. That is to say obstetric estimate is more sensitive and specific for preterm birth by all available markers of prematurity. The preterm birth rate is 9.7% vs 11.5% and more closely correlates with adverse neonatal outcomes associated with preterm birth when gestational age is assigned using the obstetric estimate. This method of gestational age assignment is currently used by most industrialized nations and should be considered for future reporting of US outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.

2015-08-01

Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.

Mortality attributable to diabetes: estimates for the year 2010.

PubMed

Roglic, Gojka; Unwin, Nigel

2010-01-01

Country and global health statistics underestimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. The aim of the study was to provide a more accurate estimate of the number of deaths attributable to diabetes for the year 2010. A computerized disease model was used to obtain the estimates. The baseline input data included the population structure, estimates of diabetes prevalence, estimates of underlying mortality and estimates of the relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. The total number of excess deaths attributable to diabetes worldwide was estimated to be 3.96 million in the age group 20-79 years, 6.8% of global (all ages) mortality. Diabetes accounted for 6% of deaths in adults in the African Region, to 15.7% in the North American Region. Beyond 49 years of age diabetes constituted a higher proportion of deaths in females than in males in all regions, reaching over 25% in some regions and age groups. Thus, diabetes is a considerable cause of premature mortality, a situation that is likely to worsen, particularly in low and middle income countries as diabetes prevalence increases. Investments in primary and secondary prevention are urgently required to reduce this burden. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

PubMed

Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-09-28

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10 -9 ) , independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10 -4 ) , and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10 -43 ). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

Precision of hard structures used to estimate age of mountain Whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael C.

2015-01-01

The mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) is a widely distributed salmonid in western North America that has decreased in abundance over portions of its distribution due to anthropogenic disturbances. In this investigation, we examined precision of age estimates derived from scales, pectoral fin rays, and sagittal otoliths from 167 mountain whitefish. Otoliths and pectoral fin rays were mounted in epoxy and cross-sectioned before examination. Scales were pressed onto acetate slides and resulting impressions were examined. Between-reader precision (i.e., between 2 readers), between-reader variability, and reader confidence ratings were compared among hard structures. Coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and percentage of exact agreement (PA-0) was highest for scales (CV = 5.9; PA-0 = 70%) compared to pectoral fin rays (CV =11.0; PA-0 = 58%) and otoliths (CV = 12.3; PA-0 = 55%). Median confidence ratings were significantly different (P ≤ 0.05) among all structures, with scales having the highest median confidence. Reader confidence decreased with fish age for scales and pectoral fin rays, but reader confidence increased with fish age for otoliths. In general, age estimates were more precise and reader confidence was higher for scales compared to pectoral fin rays and otoliths. This research will help fisheries biologists in selecting the most appropriate hard structure to use for future age and growth studies on mountain whitefish. In turn, selection of the most precise hard structure will lead to better estimates of dynamic rate functions.

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

PubMed

Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

2006-08-01

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

A learning framework for age rank estimation based on face images with scattering transform.

PubMed

Chang, Kuang-Yu; Chen, Chu-Song

2015-03-01

This paper presents a cost-sensitive ordinal hyperplanes ranking algorithm for human age estimation based on face images. The proposed approach exploits relative-order information among the age labels for rank prediction. In our approach, the age rank is obtained by aggregating a series of binary classification results, where cost sensitivities among the labels are introduced to improve the aggregating performance. In addition, we give a theoretical analysis on designing the cost of individual binary classifier so that the misranking cost can be bounded by the total misclassification costs. An efficient descriptor, scattering transform, which scatters the Gabor coefficients and pooled with Gaussian smoothing in multiple layers, is evaluated for facial feature extraction. We show that this descriptor is a generalization of conventional bioinspired features and is more effective for face-based age inference. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art age estimation approaches.

Testing inter-observer reliability of the Transition Analysis aging method on the William M. Bass forensic skeletal collection.

PubMed

Fojas, Christina L; Kim, Jieun; Minsky-Rowland, Jocelyn D; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B

2018-01-01

Skeletal age estimation is an integral part of the biological profile. Recent work shows how multiple-trait approaches better capture senescence as it occurs at different rates among individuals. Furthermore, a Bayesian statistical framework of analysis provides more useful age estimates. The component-scoring method of Transition Analysis (TA) may resolve many of the functional and statistical limitations of traditional phase-aging methods and is applicable to both paleodemography and forensic casework. The present study contributes to TA-research by validating TA for multiple, differently experienced observers using a collection of modern forensic skeletal cases. Five researchers independently applied TA to a random sample of 58 documented individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic Skeletal Collection, for whom knowledge of chronological age was withheld. Resulting scores were input into the ADBOU software and maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were produced using the forensic prior. Krippendorff's alpha was used to evaluate interrater reliability and agreement. Inaccuracy and bias were measured to gauge the magnitude and direction of difference between estimated ages and chronological ages among the five observers. The majority of traits had moderate to excellent agreement among observers (≥0.6). The superior surface morphology had the least congruence (0.4), while the ventral symphyseal margin had the most (0.9) among scores. Inaccuracy was the lowest for individuals younger than 30 and the greatest for individuals over 60. Consistent over-estimation of individuals younger than 30 and under-estimation of individuals over 40 years old occurred. Individuals in their 30s showed a mixed pattern of under- and over-estimation among observers. These results support the use of the TA method by researchers of varying experience levels. Further, they validate its use on forensic cases, given the low error overall. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Stratigraphy of Oceanus Procellarum basalts - Sources and styles of emplacement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitford-Stark, J. L.; Head, J. W., III

1980-01-01

The basaltic fill of Oceanus Procellarum has been formally subdivided into four lithostratigraphic formations: The Repsold Formation, the Telemann Formation, the Hermann Formation, and the Sharp Formation. The Repsold Formation is composed of high-Ti basalts and pyroclastic deposits with an estimated age of 3.75 + or - 0.05 b.y. and an estimated volume of about 2.1 x 10 to the 5th cu km. This is overlain by the Telemann Formation composed of very low-Ti basalts and pyroclastic deposits with an estimated age of 3.6 + or - 0.2 b.y. and a volume of 4.2 x 10 to the 5th cu km. The Hermann Formation, composed of intermediate basalts with an estimated age of 3.3 + or - 0.3 b.y., represents the next youngest unit with an estimated volume of 2.2 x 10 to the 5th cu km. The youngest materials in Procellarum are the medium-to-high-Ti basalts comprising the Sharp Formation with an estimated age of 2.7 + or - 0.7 b.y. and a volume of 1.8 x 10 to the 4th cu km.

Aging persons' estimates of vehicular motion.

PubMed

Schiff, W; Oldak, R; Shah, V

1992-12-01

Estimated arrival times of moving autos were examined in relation to viewer age, gender, motion trajectory, and velocity. Direct push-button judgments were compared with verbal estimates derived from velocity and distance, which were based on assumptions that perceivers compute arrival time from perceived distance and velocity. Experiment 1 showed that direct estimates of younger Ss were most accurate. Older women made the shortest (highly cautious) estimates of when cars would arrive. Verbal estimates were much lower than direct estimates, with little correlation between them. Experiment 2 extended target distances and velocities of targets, with the results replicating the main findings of Experiment 1. Judgment accuracy increased with target velocity, and verbal estimates were again poorer estimates of arrival time than direct ones, with different patterns of findings. Using verbal estimates to approximate judgments in traffic situations appears questionable.

Effect of age and gender on the number of motor units in healthy subjects estimated by the multipoint incremental MUNE method.

PubMed

Gawel, Malgorzata; Kostera-Pruszczyk, Anna

2014-06-01

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a tool for estimating the number of motor units. The aim was to evaluate the multipoint incremental MUNE method in a healthy population, to analyze whether aging, gender, and the dominant hand side influence the motor unit number, and to assess reproducibility of MUNE with the Shefner modification. We studied 60 volunteers (mean age, 47 ± 17.7 years) in four groups aged 18 to 30, 31 to 45, 46 to 60, and above 60 years. Motor unit number estimation was calculated in the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and the abductor digiti minimi (ADM) by dividing the single motor unit action potential amplitude into the maximal compound motor action potential amplitude. Test-retest variability was 7%. The mean value of MUNE for APB was 133.2 ± 43 and for ADM was 157.1 ± 39.4. Significant differences in MUNE results were found between groups aged 18 to 30 and 60 years or older and between groups aged 31 to 45 and 60 years or older. Motor unit number estimation results correlated negatively with the age of subjects for both APB and ADM. Single motor unit action potential, reflecting the size of motor unit, increased with the age of subjects only in APB. Compound motor action potential amplitude correlated negatively with the age of subjects in APB and ADM. Significant correlations were seen between MUNE in APB or ADM and compound motor action potential amplitude in these muscles and the age of female subjects. A similar relationship was not found in males. Multipoint incremental MUNE method with the Shefner modification is a noninvasive, easy to perform method with high reproducibility. The loss of motor neurons because of aging could be confirmed by our MUNE study and seems to be more pronounced in females.

Effects of intrinsic aging and photodamage on skin dyspigmentation: an explorative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobos, Gabor; Trojahn, Carina; D'Alessandro, Brian; Patwardhan, Sachin; Canfield, Douglas; Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan

2016-06-01

Photoaging is associated with increasing pigmentary heterogeneity and darkening of skin color. However, little is known about age-related changes in skin pigmentation on sun-protected areas. The aim of this explorative study was to measure skin color and dyspigmentation using image processing and to evaluate the reliability of these parameters. Twenty-four volunteers of three age-groups were included in this explorative study. Measurements were conducted at sun-exposed and sun-protected areas. Overall skin-color estimates were similar among age groups. The hyper- and hypopigmentation indices differed significantly by age groups and their correlations with age ranged between 0.61 and 0.74. Dorsal forearm skin differed from the other investigational areas (p<0.001). We observed an increase in dyspigmentation at all skin areas, including sun-protected skin areas, already in young adulthood. Associations between age and dyspigmentation estimates were higher compared to color parameters. All color and dyspigmentation estimates showed high reliability. Dyspigmentation parameters seem to be better biomarkers for UV damage than the overall color measurements.

Stature estimation from the lengths of the growing foot-a study on North Indian adolescents.

PubMed

Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Passi, Neelam; DiMaggio, John A

2012-12-01

Stature estimation is considered as one of the basic parameters of the investigation process in unknown and commingled human remains in medico-legal case work. Race, age and sex are the other parameters which help in this process. Stature estimation is of the utmost importance as it completes the biological profile of a person along with the other three parameters of identification. The present research is intended to formulate standards for stature estimation from foot dimensions in adolescent males from North India and study the pattern of foot growth during the growing years. 154 male adolescents from the Northern part of India were included in the study. Besides stature, five anthropometric measurements that included the length of the foot from each toe (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 respectively) to pternion were measured on each foot. The data was analyzed statistically using Student's t-test, Pearson's correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis for estimation of stature and growth of foot during ages 13-18 years. Correlation coefficients between stature and all the foot measurements were found to be highly significant and positively correlated. Linear regression models and multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) were derived for estimation of stature from the different measurements of the foot. Multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) estimate stature with greater accuracy than the regression models for 13-18 years age group. The study shows the growth pattern of feet in North Indian adolescents and indicates that anthropometric measurements of the foot and its segments are valuable in estimation of stature in growing individuals of that population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost of care of patients with cystic fibrosis in The Netherlands in 1990-1.

PubMed Central

Wildhagen, M. F.; Verheij, J. B.; Verzijl, J. G.; Hilderink, H. B.; Kooij, L.; Tijmstra, T.; ten Kate, L. P.; Gerritsen, J.; Bakker, W.; Habbema, J. D.; Habbema, F.

1996-01-01

BACKGROUND: Research on the cost of care of patients with cystic fibrosis is scarce. The aim of this study was to estimate the costs using age-specific medical consumption from real patient data. METHODS: The age-specific medical consumption of patients with cystic fibrosis in The Netherlands in 1991 was estimated from a survey of medical records and a patient questionnaire. A distinction was made between costs of hospital care, hospital and non-hospital medication, and home care. Costs per year were obtained by multiplying the yearly amount of care and the costs per unit. RESULTS: On average the annual cost of a patient with cystic fibrosis in 1991 was 10,908 pounds (hospital care 42%, medication 37%, home care 20%). The cost of care of cystic fibrosis in The Netherlands, with approximately 1000 patients, is estimated at 10.9 million pounds per year, which is 0.07% of the total health care budget. The cost of care of a patient up to the age of 35 is estimated at 614,587 pounds. When year-to-year survival is taken into account and future costs are discounted to the year of birth with a yearly discount rate of 5%, the cost of care of a patient with cystic fibrosis is estimated at 164,365 pounds for 1991. This estimate will be used in a prospective evaluation of screening for cystic fibrosis carriers. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of care of patients with cystic fibrosis estimated by age-specific medical consumption of real patients is higher than that estimated by non-age-specific medical consumption and/or expert opinions. PMID:8779135

'Micro-hole' optical dating of quartz from HOTRAX-05 Arctic Ocean cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, G. W.; Polyak, L. V.

2011-12-01

For Quaternary Arctic Ocean cores, numeric dating methods are needed spanning and exceeding the age range of the widely used radiocarbon (C-14) method. Previously, luminescence sediment dating of 4-11 μm diameter quartz and feldspar grains from core tops has often produced large burial-age overestimates (e.g., by >7 kyr) due to failure to resolve mixed-age histories. However, application of micro-focused-laser ('micro-hole') photon-stimulated-luminescence (PSL) applied to quartz grains of 11-90 μm diameters from the tops (upper 2 cm) of high-sedimentation- rate HOTRAX-05 multi-cores at the Alaska margin provides expected near zero ages (0-200 a), thus overcoming the earlier problem of large PSL age over-estimation. This micro-hole PSL dating approach has also been applied to >11 μm quartz grains from multi-cores at two sites on the central Lomonosov Ridge. For a core top within a perched basin, a burial-age estimate of ~2 ka for 11-62 μm quartz was obtained, in accord with published C-14 age estimates from foraminifera, demonstrating the efficacy of the micro-hole approach to this ridge area. At a nearby 'erosive' ridge-top site, the micro-hole PSL approach paradoxically produces two different burial-age estimates from the same core-top horizon. The >90 μm quartz grains yield a burial age of ~25 ka, in accord with a C-14 age estimate of ~26 ka from >250 μm foraminifers from the same horizon. However, the 11-90 μm quartz produces a burial-age estimate of ~9 ka, indicating a differently preserved burial history for the medium silt grains than for the sand grains within a single horizon. This unexpected result provides a unique insight into past, complicated, depositional processes on this ridge top over a time range spanning the LGM. These results from the micro-hole PSL approach thus indicate a clear potential for dating times of detrital quartz deposition at other ridge tops in the Arctic Ocean, and for providing perhaps new insights into local preservation of burial ages. These PSL procedures are being applied also to sediment above and below a diamicton in a HOTRAX-05 core from the Northwind Ridge, with the aim of dating indirectly the diamicton. Preliminary results from this core will be presented.

Sex-specific developmental models for Creophilus maxillosus (L.) (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae): searching for larger accuracy of insect age estimates.

PubMed

Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna; Matuszewski, Szymon

2018-05-01

Differences in size between males and females, called the sexual size dimorphism, are common in insects. These differences may be followed by differences in the duration of development. Accordingly, it is believed that insect sex may be used to increase the accuracy of insect age estimates in forensic entomology. Here, the sex-specific differences in the development of Creophilus maxillosus were studied at seven constant temperatures. We have also created separate developmental models for males and females of C. maxillosus and tested them in a validation study to answer a question whether sex-specific developmental models improve the accuracy of insect age estimates. Results demonstrate that males of C. maxillosus developed significantly longer than females. The sex-specific and general models for the total immature development had the same optimal temperature range and similar developmental threshold but different thermal constant K, which was the largest in the case of the male-specific model and the smallest in the case of the female-specific model. Despite these differences, validation study revealed just minimal and statistically insignificant differences in the accuracy of age estimates using sex-specific and general thermal summation models. This finding indicates that in spite of statistically significant differences in the duration of immature development between females and males of C. maxillosus, there is no increase in the accuracy of insect age estimates while using the sex-specific thermal summation models compared to the general model. Accordingly, this study does not support the use of sex-specific developmental data for the estimation of insect age in forensic entomology.

Influence of fruit age of the Brazilian Green Dwarf coconut on the relationship between Aceria guerreronis population density and percentage of fruit damage.

PubMed

Sousa, André Silva Guimarães; Argolo, Poliane Sá; Gondim, Manoel Guedes Correa; de Moraes, Gilberto José; Oliveira, Anibal Ramadan

2017-08-01

The coconut mite, Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae), is one of the main coconut pests in the American, African and parts of the Asian continents, reaching densities of several thousand mites per fruit. Diagrammatic scales have been developed to standardize the estimation of the population densities of A. guerreronis according to the estimated percentage of damage, but these have not taken into account the possible effect of fruit age, although previous studies have already reported the variation in mite numbers with fruit age. The objective of this study was to re-construct the relation between damage and mite density at different fruit ages collected in an urban coconut plantation containing the green dwarf variety ranging from the beginning to nearly the end of the infestation, as regularly seen under field conditions in northeast Brazil, in order to improve future estimates with diagrammatic scales. The percentage of damage was estimated with two diagrammatic scales on a total of 470 fruits from 1 to 5 months old, from a field at Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil, determining the respective number of mites on each fruit. The results suggested that in estimates with diagrammatic scales: (1) fruit age has a major effect on the estimation of A. guerreronis densities, (2) fruits of different ages should be analyzed separately, and (3) regular evaluation of infestation levels should be done preferably on fruits of about 3-4 months old, which show the highest densities.

The impact of case definition on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prevalence estimates in community-based samples of school-aged children.

PubMed

McKeown, Robert E; Holbrook, Joseph R; Danielson, Melissa L; Cuffe, Steven P; Wolraich, Mark L; Visser, Susanna N

2015-01-01

To determine the impact of varying attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Parent and teacher reports identified high- and low-screen children with ADHD from elementary schools in 2 states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV), and up to 4 additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. At baseline 1,060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least 1 follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported 6 or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI = 18.1%-23.2%) and 29.8% (CI = 24.5%-35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age 7 years (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI = 14.7%-18.0%) and 17.5% (CI = 13.3%-22.8%); requiring at least 4 teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI = 7.4%-10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased the 8.9% estimate to 11.3% (CI = 9.5%-13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age 7 onset (CI = 5.9%-11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI = 7.6%-21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the overall estimate to 13.1% (CI = 7.7%-21.5%). These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars

PubMed Central

Lewis, Amitha J.; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K. R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K. P; Manaktala, Nidhi

2015-01-01

Aim: The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Results: Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R2 varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. Conclusion: The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development. PMID:26005306

Pulp/tooth ratio of mandibular first and second molars on panoramic radiographs: An aid for forensic age estimation

PubMed Central

Shah, Palak H.; Venkatesh, Rashmi

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine and compare the accuracy of pulp/tooth ratio method in mandibular first and second molar teeth in forensic age estimation. Materials and Methods: A total 300 panoramic radiographs of the Gujarati population (187 males and 113 females) were studied. The measurements of Pulp Chamber Height (PCH) and Crown Root Trunk Height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth. The acquired data was subjected to correlation and regression. Results: The pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of both the first (r = −0.609) and second molars (r = −0.422) were significantly correlated with the age of the individual. Individual regression formulae were derived for both the teeth which were then used separately to calculate the age. The standard errors estimate (SEE) for the first and second molars were 8.84 years and 10.11 years, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between chronological and calculated age by both the teeth (P = 1.000). Conclusion: The mandibular first and second molar is a potential tool for age estimation in forensic dentistry. The pulp/tooth ratio of both the teeth is a useful method for forensic age prediction with reasonable accuracy in the Gujarati population. PMID:27555734

Age estimation from dental cementum incremental lines and periodontal disease.

PubMed

Dias, P E M; Beaini, T L; Melani, R F H

2010-12-01

Age estimation by counting incremental lines in cementum added to the average age of tooth eruption is considered an accurate method by some authors, while others reject it stating weak correlation between estimated and actual age. The aim of this study was to evaluate this technique and check the influence of periodontal disease on age estimates by analyzing both the number of cementum lines and the correlation between cementum thickness and actual age on freshly extracted teeth. Thirty one undecalcified ground cross sections of approximately 30 µm, from 25 teeth were prepared, observed, photographed and measured. Images were enhanced by software and counts were made by one observer, and the results compared with two control-observers. There was moderate correlation ((r)=0.58) for the entire sample, with mean error of 9.7 years. For teeth with periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.03 with a mean error of 22.6 years. For teeth without periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.74 with mean error of 1.6 years. There was correlation of 0.69 between cementum thickness and known age for the entire sample, 0.25 for teeth with periodontal problems and 0.75 for teeth without periodontal pathologies. The technique was reliable for periodontally sound teeth, but not for periodontally diseased teeth.

Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death.

PubMed

Merrill, R M; Kessler, L G; Udler, J M; Rasband, G C; Feuer, E J

1999-02-01

Lifetime risk estimates of disease are limited by long-term data extrapolations and are less relevant to individuals who have already lived a period of time without the disease, but are approaching the age at which the disease risk becomes common. In contrast, short-term age-conditional risk estimates, such as the risk of developing a disease in the next 10 years among those alive and free of the disease at a given age, are less restricted by long-term extrapolation of current rates and can present patients with risk information tailored to their age. This study focuses on short-term age-conditional risk estimates for a broad set of important chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death among white and black men and women. The Feuer et al. (1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute) [15] method was applied to data from a variety of sources to obtain risk estimates for select cancers, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and death from motor vehicle accidents, homicide or legal intervention, and suicide. Acute deaths from suicide, homicide or legal intervention, and fatal motor vehicle accidents dominate the risk picture for persons in their 20s, with only diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease therapy (for blacks only) having similar levels of risk in this age range. Late in life, cancer, acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer's, and stroke become most common. The chronic diseases affecting the population later in life present the most likely diseases someone will face. Several interesting differences in disease and death risks were derived and reported among age-specific race and gender subgroups of the population. Presentation of risk estimates for a broad set of chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death within short-term age ranges among population subgroups provides tailored information that may lead to better educated prevention, screening, and control behaviors and more efficient allocation of health resources.

Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis

PubMed Central

Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B.; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G.

2016-01-01

Background: Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. Aims: The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Settings and Design: Sixty subjects aged 20–85 years were included in the study. Materials and Methods: For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections—cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root—were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. Statistical Analysis Used: All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Results and Conclusions: Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation (r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level. PMID:28123269

Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age.

PubMed

Royle, Natalie A; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E; Deary, Ian J; Wardlaw, Joanna M

2013-12-01

Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Photos provide information on age, but not kinship, of Andean bear

PubMed Central

Zug, Becky; Appleton, Robyn D.; Velez-Liendo, Ximena; Paisley, Susanna; LaCombe, Corrin

2015-01-01

Using photos of captive Andean bears of known age and pedigree, and photos of wild Andean bear cubs <6 months old, we evaluated the degree to which visual information may be used to estimate bears’ ages and assess their kinship. We demonstrate that the ages of Andean bear cubs ≤6 months old may be estimated from their size relative to their mothers with an average error of <0.01 ± 13.2 days (SD; n = 14), and that ages of adults ≥10 years old may be estimated from the proportion of their nose that is pink with an average error of <0.01 ± 3.5 years (n = 41). We also show that similarity among the bears’ natural markings, as perceived by humans, is not associated with pedigree kinship among the bears (R2 < 0.001, N = 1,043, p = 0.499). Thus, researchers may use photos of wild Andean bears to estimate the ages of young cubs and older adults, but not to infer their kinship. Given that camera trap photos are one of the most readily available sources of information on large cryptic mammals, we suggest that similar methods be tested for use in other poorly understood species. PMID:26213647

Night sampling improves indices used for management of yellow perch in Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kocovsky, P.M.; Stapanian, M.A.; Knight, C.T.

2010-01-01

Catch rate (catch per hour) was examined for age-0 and age-1 yellow perch, Perca flavescens (Mitchill), captured in bottom trawls from 1991 to 2005 in western Lake Erie: (1) to examine variation of catch rate among years, seasons, diel periods and their interactions; and (2) to determine whether sampling during particular diel periods improved the management value of CPH data used in models to project abundance of age-2 yellow perch. Catch rate varied with year, season and the diel period during which sampling was conducted as well as by the interaction between year and season. Indices of abundance of age-0 and age-1 yellow perch estimated from night samples typically produced better fitting models and lower estimates of age-2 abundance than those using morning or afternoon samples, whereas indices using afternoon samples typically produced less precise and higher estimates of abundance. The diel period during which sampling is conducted will not affect observed population trends but may affect estimates of abundance of age-0 and age-1 yellow perch, which in turn affect recommended allowable harvest. A field experiment throughout western Lake Erie is recommended to examine potential benefits of night sampling to management of yellow perch. Published 2010. The article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chhiber, R; Usmanov, AV; Matthaeus, WH

Simple estimates of the number of Coulomb collisions experienced by the interplanetary plasma to the point of observation, i.e., the “collisional age”, can be usefully employed in the study of non-thermal features of the solar wind. Usually these estimates are based on local plasma properties at the point of observation. Here we improve the method of estimation of the collisional age by employing solutions obtained from global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulations. This enables evaluation of the complete analytical expression for the collisional age without using approximations. The improved estimation of the collisional timescale is compared with turbulence and expansion timescales tomore » assess the relative importance of collisions. The collisional age computed using the approximate formula employed in previous work is compared with the improved simulation-based calculations to examine the validity of the simplified formula. We also develop an analytical expression for the evaluation of the collisional age and we find good agreement between the numerical and analytical results. Finally, we briefly discuss the implications for an improved estimation of collisionality along spacecraft trajectories, including Solar Probe Plus.« less

Effect of technology on aging perception.

PubMed

Juárez, Ma Rodrigo; González, Víctor M; Favela, Jesús

2018-06-01

Technology can assist older adults to maintain an active lifestyle. To better understand the effect that technology has on aging perception, we conducted two studies. In the first study, through supraliminal priming, we analyzed the effects of aging- and technology-related stimuli on age estimation. In the second study, we conducted a technological intervention with a group of elders who used four interactive devices and analyzed effects on perceived aging. Results showed that technology-related stimuli did not affect estimated age. From the second study, we generated a sociotechnical model that explains the processes connecting technology use with successful aging. We concluded that the use of technology affects aging perception, although it depends on whether the elder people have a proactive attitude toward their aging process a priori.

Correlation between chronological age and third molar developmental stages in an Iranian population (Demirjian method)

PubMed Central

Khosronejad, Aria; Navabi, Manijeh; Sakhdari, Shirin; Rakhshan, Vahid

2017-01-01

Background: Third molar development is the only available tool for estimating the age of individuals after puberty. Since this tooth has very high interethnic variability, formulas calculated to estimate the age from its development stages cannot be generalized to other populations and should be adjusted for each region. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate this method in a sample of Tehran individuals for the first time, and also to compare the development of third molars across sexes and arches, and to estimate cutoff developmental stages for legal minor/major identification. Materials and Methods: A total of 150 dental patients aged between 15 and 25 years old were prospectively enrolled, and their Demirjian stages were recorded. The associations between chronological age and Demirjian stages were evaluated. Dental formation was compared between sexes and jaws. Cutoff stages were determined to identify legal minor/major cases (above or below 18 years old). Age estimation formula was found for this population. Results: Of the 150 included patients, 56 were males. The difference between the ages of males and females at each given developmental stage was nonsignificant (P > 0.05), except for the H stage. Age difference between same stage teeth of the maxilla and mandible was nonsignificant. Each of the G and H stages was significantly above 18 years old (P < 0.001). Furthermore, E and F stages were below 18 years old (P < 0.001). All the correlations between Demirjian stages and age were above 90% (all P < 0.001). Third molar development was positively affected by the chronological age (P = 0.000) and being maxillary (P = 0.000) but not sex (P = 0.113). Regression formula for age estimation was: age = 6.52+ (0.64 × sex) + (0.32 × arch) + (1.86 × Demirjian stage). Conclusion: Development of third molar might complete after the age 22. Iranian individuals with third molars at the G and H stages are likely above 18 while those at E and F are likely below 18. Pace of molar development differs for jaws, but intergender differences are open to further investigations. PMID:28584539

Correlation between chronological age and third molar developmental stages in an Iranian population (Demirjian method).

PubMed

Khosronejad, Aria; Navabi, Manijeh; Sakhdari, Shirin; Rakhshan, Vahid

2017-01-01

Third molar development is the only available tool for estimating the age of individuals after puberty. Since this tooth has very high interethnic variability, formulas calculated to estimate the age from its development stages cannot be generalized to other populations and should be adjusted for each region. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate this method in a sample of Tehran individuals for the first time, and also to compare the development of third molars across sexes and arches, and to estimate cutoff developmental stages for legal minor/major identification. A total of 150 dental patients aged between 15 and 25 years old were prospectively enrolled, and their Demirjian stages were recorded. The associations between chronological age and Demirjian stages were evaluated. Dental formation was compared between sexes and jaws. Cutoff stages were determined to identify legal minor/major cases (above or below 18 years old). Age estimation formula was found for this population. Of the 150 included patients, 56 were males. The difference between the ages of males and females at each given developmental stage was nonsignificant ( P > 0.05), except for the H stage. Age difference between same stage teeth of the maxilla and mandible was nonsignificant. Each of the G and H stages was significantly above 18 years old ( P < 0.001). Furthermore, E and F stages were below 18 years old ( P < 0.001). All the correlations between Demirjian stages and age were above 90% (all P < 0.001). Third molar development was positively affected by the chronological age ( P = 0.000) and being maxillary ( P = 0.000) but not sex ( P = 0.113). Regression formula for age estimation was: age = 6.52+ (0.64 × sex) + (0.32 × arch) + (1.86 × Demirjian stage). Development of third molar might complete after the age 22. Iranian individuals with third molars at the G and H stages are likely above 18 while those at E and F are likely below 18. Pace of molar development differs for jaws, but intergender differences are open to further investigations.

Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

PubMed

Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

2015-04-01

Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures.

Estimating age from the pubic symphysis: A new component-based system.

PubMed

Dudzik, Beatrix; Langley, Natalie R

2015-12-01

The os pubis is one of the most widely used areas of the skeleton for age estimation. Current pubic symphyseal aging methods for adults combine the morphology associated with the developmental changes that occur into the mid-30s with the degenerative changes that span the latter portion of the age spectrum. The most popular methods are phase-based; however, the definitions currently used to estimate age intervals may not be adequately defined and/or accurately understood by burgeoning researchers and seasoned practitioners alike. This study identifies patterns of growth and maturation in the pubic symphysis to derive more precise age estimates for individuals under 40 years of age. Emphasis is placed on young adults to provide more informative descriptions of epiphyseal changes associated with the final phases of skeletal maturation before degeneration commences. This study investigated macroscopic changes in forensically relevant modern U.S. samples of known age, sex, and ancestry from the Maricopa County Forensic Science Center in Phoenix, Arizona as well as donated individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic and Donated Collections at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (n=237). Age-related traits at locations with ontogenetic and biomechanical relevance were broken into components and scored. The components included the pubic tubercle, the superior apex of the face, the ventral and dorsal demifaces, and the ventral and dorsal symphyseal margins. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate the transition ages between the morphological states of each component. The categorical scores and transition analysis ages were subjected to multinomial logistic regression and decision tree analysis to derive accurate age interval estimates. Results of these analyses were used to construct a decision tree-style flow chart for practitioner use. High inter-rater agreement of the individual component traits (linear weighted kappa values ≥0.665 for all traits in the decision tree) indicates that the method offers unambiguous scoring for age-related changes of the pubic symphysis. Validation of the flow chart on a sample of 47 individuals provided by the Montana State Crime Lab yielded 94% accuracy overall, indicating that the method has the potential to deliver precise and accurate age estimates of individuals prior to the onset of advanced degenerative changes. A pubic symphysis that exhibits epiphyseal changes and/or billowing is suitable for this method; a pubic symphysis that exhibits degenerative changes (i.e. porosity and/or rim erosion) is not suitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Defining and Estimating Healthy Aging in Spain: A Cross-sectional Study.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Laso, Angel; McLaughlin, Sara J; Urdaneta, Elena; Yanguas, Javier

2018-03-19

Using an operational continuum of healthy aging developed by U.S. researchers, we sought to estimate the prevalence of healthy aging among older Spaniards, inform the development of a definition of healthy aging in Spain, and foster cross-national research on healthy aging. The ELES pilot study is a nationwide, cross-sectional survey of community-dwelling Spaniards 50 years and older. The prevalence of healthy aging was calculated for the 65 and over population using varying definitions. To evaluate their validity, we examined the association of healthy aging with the 8 foot up & go test, quality of life scores and self-perceived health using multiple linear and logistic regression. The estimated prevalence of healthy aging varied across the operational continuum, from 4.5% to 49.2%. Prevalence figures were greater for men and those aged 65 to 79 years and were higher than in the United States. Predicted mean physical performance scores were similar for 3 of the 4 definitions, suggesting that stringent definitions of healthy aging offer little advantage over a more moderate one. Similar to U.S. researchers, we recommend a definition of healthy aging that incorporates measures of functional health and limiting disease as opposed to definitions requiring the absence of all disease in studies designed to assess the effect of policy initiatives on healthy aging.

Estimated Daily Average Per Capita Water Ingestion by Child and Adult Age Categories Based on USDA's 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The a...

The digital atlas of skeletal maturity by Gilsanz and Ratib: a suitable alternative for age estimation of living individuals in criminal proceedings?

PubMed

Schmidt, Sven; Nitz, Inna; Schulz, Ronald; Tsokos, Michael; Schmeling, Andreas

2009-11-01

As a collection of radiographic standards of the normal hand development with a homogenous degree of maturity of all skeletal elements, the digital atlas of skeletal maturity by Gilsanz and Ratib combines the possibilities of digital imaging with the principle of a conventional atlas method. The present paper analyses the forensic applicability of skeletal age assessment according to Gilsanz and Ratib to age estimation in criminal proceedings. For this, the hand X-rays of 180 children and adolescents aged 10-18 years old were examined retrospectively. For the entire age range, the minima and maxima, the mean values and standard deviations as well as the medians with upper and lower quartiles are specified by sex. For the legally relevant age groups from 14 to 18 years, there is a risk of overestimation of the chronological age of up to 7.2 months in females. The method of Gilsanz and Ratib is therefore only suitable to forensic age estimation in criminal proceedings to a limited extent.

Evaluation of the accuracy of Demirjian method for estimation of dental age among 6-12 years of children in Navi Mumbai: A radiographic study.

PubMed

Hegde, Rahul J; Khare, Sumedh Suhas; Saraf, Tanvi A; Trivedi, Sonal; Naidu, Sonal

2015-01-01

Dental formation is superior to eruption as a method of dental age (DA) assessment. Eruption is only a brief occurrence, whereas formation may be related at different chronologic age levels, thereby providing a precise index for determining DA. The study was designed to determine the nature of inter-relationship between chronologic and DA. Age estimation depending upon tooth formation was done by Demirjian method and accuracy of Demirjian method was also evaluated. The sample for the study consisted of 197 children of Navi Mumbai. Significant positive correlation was found between chronologic age and DA that is, (r = 0.995), (P < 0.0001) for boys and (r = 0.995), (P < 0.0001) for girls. When age estimation was done by Demirjian method, mean the difference between true age (chronologic age) and assessed (DA) was 2 days for boys and 37 days for girls. Demirjian method showed high accuracy when applied to Navi Mumbai (Maharashtra - India) population. Demirjian method showed high accuracy when applied to Navi Mumbai (Maharashtra - India) population.

Estimating the burden of rubella virus infection and congenital rubella syndrome through a rubella immunity assessment among pregnant women in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Potential impact on vaccination policy.

PubMed

Alleman, Mary M; Wannemuehler, Kathleen A; Hao, Lijuan; Perelygina, Ludmila; Icenogle, Joseph P; Vynnycky, Emilia; Fwamba, Franck; Edidi, Samuel; Mulumba, Audry; Sidibe, Kassim; Reef, Susan E

2016-12-12

Rubella-containing vaccines (RCV) are not yet part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) vaccination program; however RCV introduction is planned before 2020. Because documentation of DRC's historical burden of rubella virus infection and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) has been minimal, estimates of the burden of rubella virus infection and of CRS would help inform the country's strategy for RCV introduction. A rubella antibody seroprevalence assessment was conducted using serum collected during 2008-2009 from 1605 pregnant women aged 15-46years attending 7 antenatal care sites in 3 of DRC's provinces. Estimates of age- and site-specific rubella antibody seroprevalence, population, and fertility rates were used in catalytic models to estimate the incidence of CRS per 100,000 live births and the number of CRS cases born in 2013 in DRC. Overall 84% (95% CI 82, 86) of the women tested were estimated to be rubella antibody seropositive. The association between age and estimated antibody seroprevalence, adjusting for study site, was not significant (p=0.10). Differences in overall estimated seroprevalence by study site were observed indicating variation by geographical area (p⩽0.03 for all). Estimated seroprevalence was similar for women declaring residence in urban (84%) versus rural (83%) settings (p=0.67). In 2013 for DRC nationally, the estimated incidence of CRS was 69/100,000 live births (95% CI 0, 186), corresponding to 2886 infants (95% CI 342, 6395) born with CRS. In the 3 provinces, rubella virus transmission is endemic, and most viral exposure and seroconversion occurs before age 15years. However, approximately 10-20% of the women were susceptible to rubella virus infection and thus at risk for having an infant with CRS. This analysis can guide plans for introduction of RCV in DRC. Per World Health Organization recommendations, introduction of RCV should be accompanied by a campaign targeting all children 9months to 14years of age as well as vaccination of women of child bearing age through routine services. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Recent trends in television tip over-related injuries among children aged 0-9 years.

PubMed

Murray, K J; Griffin, R; Rue, L W; McGwin, G

2009-08-01

To describe recent trends in television tip over-related injuries among children aged 0-9 years, and to compare injury rates with sales of newer digital televisions. Digital television sales data were obtained from marketing data provided by the Television Bureau of Advertising. Data regarding television tip over-related injuries among children aged 0-9 years were obtained from the 1998-2007 National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. A Wald chi(2) test, estimated from logistic analysis, was used to determine whether the distribution of injury types differed by age group. Pearson's correlation was used to estimate the association between digital television sales and television tip over-related injuries. An estimated 42 122 (95% CI 35 199 to 49 122) injuries from television tip-overs were treated in US emergency departments from 1998 to 2007. The injury rate was highest for children aged 1-4 years (18.6/100 000). A majority of injuries (63.9%) involved the head and neck for children under 1 year of age, while a higher proportion of injuries among children aged 1-4 involved the hip and lower extremity (42.9% and 31.0%, respectively), and shoulder and upper extremity (16.8%) for children aged 5-9. A strong, positive correlation was observed between television sales and annual injury rates (r = 0.89, p<0.001). Estimates of injury rates were similar to previously reported estimates, particularly for the increased proportion of head and neck injuries among very young children. While digital television sales were strongly correlated with increased injury rates, the lack of information regarding the type of television involved prevents inference regarding causation.

Modeling Fetal Weight for Gestational Age: A Comparison of a Flexible Multi-level Spline-based Model with Other Approaches

PubMed Central

Villandré, Luc; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Perez Trejo, Maria Esther; Abenhaim, Haim; Jacobsen, Geir; Platt, Robert W

2011-01-01

We present a model for longitudinal measures of fetal weight as a function of gestational age. We use a linear mixed model, with a Box-Cox transformation of fetal weight values, and restricted cubic splines, in order to flexibly but parsimoniously model median fetal weight. We systematically compare our model to other proposed approaches. All proposed methods are shown to yield similar median estimates, as evidenced by overlapping pointwise confidence bands, except after 40 completed weeks, where our method seems to produce estimates more consistent with observed data. Sex-based stratification affects the estimates of the random effects variance-covariance structure, without significantly changing sex-specific fitted median values. We illustrate the benefits of including sex-gestational age interaction terms in the model over stratification. The comparison leads to the conclusion that the selection of a model for fetal weight for gestational age can be based on the specific goals and configuration of a given study without affecting the precision or value of median estimates for most gestational ages of interest. PMID:21931571

Telomere length of the colonial coral Galaxea fascicularis at different developmental stages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuta, H.; Hidaka, M.

2013-06-01

The ability to estimate coral age using soft tissue would be useful for population biology or aging studies on corals. In this study, we investigated whether telomere length can be used to estimate coral age. We applied single telomere length analysis to a colonial coral, Galaxea fascicularis, and estimated telomere lengths of specific coral chromosomes at different developmental stages. If the telomere shortened at each cell division, the telomere length of the coral would be longest in sperm and shortest in adult colonies. However, the mean telomere length of sperm, planula larvae, and polyps was approximately 4 kb, with no significant differences among the developmental stages. The telomerase restriction fragment (TRF) analysis also showed no significant difference in the mean TRF length among the developmental stages. Our results suggested that telomere length is maintained during developmental stages and that estimating the age of colonial coral based on telomere length may not be possible. However, our findings can be used to examine avoidance of aging and rejuvenation during regeneration and asexual reproduction in colonial corals.

The Effectiveness of Child Restraint Systems for Children Aged 3 Years or Younger During Motor Vehicle Collisions: 1996 to 2005

PubMed Central

Anderson, Craig L.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the effectiveness of child restraints in preventing death during motor vehicle collisions among children 3 years or younger. Methods. We conducted a matched cohort study using Fatality Analysis Reporting System data from 1996 to 2005. We estimated death risk ratios using conditional Poisson regression, bootstrapping, multiple imputation, and a sensitivity analysis of misclassification bias. We examined possible effect modification by selected factors. Results. The estimated death risk ratios comparing child safety seats with no restraint were 0.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.21, 0.34) for infants, 0.24 (95% CI = 0.19, 0.30) for children aged 1 year, 0.40 (95% CI = 0.32, 0.51) for those aged 2 years, and 0.41 (95% CI = 0.33, 0.52) for those aged 3 years. Estimated safety seat effectiveness was greater during rollover collisions, in rural environments, and in light trucks. We estimated seat belts to be as effective as safety seats in preventing death for children aged 2 and 3 years. Conclusions. Child safety seats are highly effective in reducing the risk of death during severe traffic collisions and generally outperform seat belts. Parents should be encouraged to use child safety seats in favor of seat belts. PMID:19059860

Inference on energetics of deep-sea fish that cannot be aged: The case of the hagfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Meer, Jaap; Kooijman, Sebastiaan (Bas) A. L. M.

2014-11-01

Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is used to estimate maximum growth rates and age at maturity for two hagfish species, the Atlantic hagfish Myxine glutinosa and the Pacific hagfish Eptatretus stoutii. Neither direct measurements on growth nor aging methods are available for these species. Only limited information on, for example, length and mass at birth and at puberty, and on oxygen consumption versus mass is available. For the Atlantic hagfish, but not for the Pacific hagfish, estimated growth rates are much higher and estimated age at maturity is much lower than previously thought, which may have implications for fisheries management. Yet, whether or not these results are due to erroneous oxygen consumption measurements remains to be seen.

Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders?

PubMed

Hanson, R K

2006-10-01

Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) is the most commonly used actuarial risk tool for estimating sexual offender recidivism risk. Recent research has suggested that its methods of accounting for the offenders' ages may be insufficient to capture declines in recidivism risk associated with advanced age. Using data from 8 samples (combined size of 3,425 sexual offenders), the present study found that older offenders had lower Static-99 scores than younger offenders and that Static-99 was moderately accurate in estimating relative recidivism risk in all age groups. Older offenders, however, had lower sexual recidivism rates than would be expected based on their Static-99 risk categories. Consequently, evaluators using Static-99 should considered advanced age in their overall estimate of risk.

Comparison of three methods for measuring height in rehabilitation inpatients and the impact on body mass index classification: An open prospective study.

PubMed

McDougall, Karen E; Stewart, Alison J; Argiriou, Alison M; Huggins, Catherine E; New, Peter W

2018-02-01

To compare standing height, estimated current height and demi-span estimated height and examine their impact on body mass index (BMI) classification. Cross-sectional data was collected on 104 patients admitted to an adult rehabilitation ward and seen by the dietitian. Patient's standing, estimated current height and demi-span estimated height were collected and grouped by age: 19-64 and ≥65 years. The limits of agreement (95% confidence interval) for estimated current height compared with standing height were +9.9 cm and -7.9 cm, in contrast to +8.7 cm and -14.3 cm for demi-span estimated height. Demi-span underestimated height when compared with standing height in both age groups, 19-64 years: (mean ± SD) 3.0 ± 6.5 cm (P = 0.001, n = 68) and ≥ 65 year age group 4.0 ± 6.0 cm (P < 0.001, n = 36), resulting in a significantly greater mean BMI (analysis of variance P < 0.001, P = 0.02). In the 19-64 and ≥65 year age groups, 3% (2/68) and 10% (4/36) of patients, respectively, had a different BMI classification using demi-span estimated height compared with standing height. Estimated current height is a simple and practical alternative if standing height is unable to be obtained when performing a nutrition assessment. Demi-span estimated height should be used with caution when calculating BMI to assess nutritional status, particularly in the elderly. © 2017 Dietitians Association of Australia.

Global and regional cause-of-death patterns in 1990.

PubMed Central

Murray, C. J.; Lopez, A. D.

1994-01-01

Demographic estimation techniques suggest that worldwide about 50 million deaths occur each year, of which about 39 million are in the developing countries. In countries with adequate registration of vital statistics, the age at death and the cause can be reliably determined. Only about 30-35% of all deaths are captured by vital registration (excluding sample registration schemes); for the remainder, cause-of-death estimation procedures are required. Indirect methods which model the cause-of-death structure as a function of the level of mortality can provide reasonable estimates for broad cause-of-death groups. Such methods are generally unreliable for more specific causes. In this case, estimates can be constructed from community-level mortality surveillance systems or from epidemiological evidence on specific diseases. Some check on the plausibility of the estimates is possible in view of the hierarchical structure of cause-of-death lists and the well-known age-specific patterns of diseases and injuries. The results of applying these methods to estimate the cause of death for over 120 diseases or injuries, by age, sex and region, are described. The estimates have been derived in order to calculate the years of life lost due to premature death, one of the two components of overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) calculated for the 1993 World development report. Previous attempts at cause-of-death estimation have been limited to a few diseases only, with little age-specific detail. The estimates reported in detail here should serve as a useful reference for further public health research to support the determination of health sector priorities. PMID:8062402

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Calibrating Estimates of Species Divergence Times

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.

2012-01-01

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account. PMID:22334343

Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

Prevalence, Duration and Severity of Parkinson's Disease in Germany: A Combined Meta-Analysis from Literature Data and Outpatient Samples.

PubMed

Enders, Dirk; Balzer-Geldsetzer, Monika; Riedel, Oliver; Dodel, Richard; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Sensken, Sven-Christian; Wolff, Björn; Reese, Jens-Peter

2017-01-01

Epidemiological data on the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) in Germany are limited. The aims of this study were to estimate the age- and gender-specific prevalence of PD in Germany as well as the severity and illness duration. A systematic literature search was performed in 5 different databases. European studies were included if they reported age- and gender-specific numbers of prevalence rates of PD. Meta-analytic approaches were applied to derive age- and gender-specific pooled prevalence estimates. Data of 4 German outpatient samples were incorporated to calculate the proportion of patients with PD in Germany grouped by Hoehn and Yahr (HY) stages and disease duration. In the German population, 178,169 cases of PD were estimated (prevalence: 217.22/100,000). The estimated relative illness duration was 40% with less than 5 years, 31% with 5-9 years, and 29% with more than 9 years. The proportions for different HY stages were estimated at 13% (I), 30% (II), 35% (III), 17% (IV), and 4% (V), respectively. Key Message: We provide an up-to-date estimation of age- and gender-specific as well as severity-based prevalence figures for PD in Germany. Further community studies are needed to estimate population-based severity distributions and distributions of non-motor symptoms in PD. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Association of Face-lift Surgery With Social Perception, Age, Attractiveness, Health, and Success.

PubMed

Nellis, Jason C; Ishii, Masaru; Papel, Ira D; Kontis, Theda C; Byrne, Patrick J; Boahene, Kofi D O; Bater, Kristin L; Ishii, Lisa E

2017-07-01

Evidence quantifying the influence of face-lift surgery on societal perceptions is lacking. To measure the association of face-lift surgery with observer-graded perceived age, attractiveness, success, and overall health. In a web-based survey, 526 casual observers naive to the purpose of the study viewed independent images of 13 unique female patient faces before or after face-lift surgery from January 1, 2016, through June 30, 2016. The Delphi method was used to select standardized patient images confirming appropriate patient candidacy and overall surgical effect. Observers estimated age and rated the attractiveness, perceived success, and perceived overall health for each patient image. Facial perception questions were answered on a visual analog scale from 0 to 100, with higher scores corresponding to more positive responses. To evaluate the accuracy of observer age estimation, the patients' preoperative estimated mean age was compared with the patients' actual mean age. A multivariate mixed-effects regression model was used to determine the effect of face-lift surgery. To further characterize the effect of face-lift surgery, estimated ordinal-rank change was calculated for each domain. Blinded casual observer ratings of patients estimated age, attractiveness, perceived success, and perceived overall health. A total of 483 observers (mean [SD] age, 29 [8.6] years; 382 women [79.4%]) successfully completed the survey. Comparing patients' preoperative estimated mean (SD) age (59.6 [9.0] years) and patients' actual mean (SD) age (58.4 [6.9] years) revealed no significant difference (t2662 = -0.47; 95% CI, -6.07 to 3.72; P = .64). On multivariate regression, patients after face-lift surgery were rated as significantly younger (coefficient, -3.69; 95% CI -4.15 to -3.23; P < .001), more attractive (coefficient, 8.21; 95% CI, 7.41-9.02; P < .001), more successful (coefficient, 5.82; 95% CI, 5.05 to 6.59; P < .001), and overall healthier (coefficient, 8.72; 95% CI, 7.88-9.56; P < .001). The ordinal rank changes for an average individual were -21 for perceived age, 21 for attractiveness, 16 for success, and 21 for overall health. In this study, observer perceptions of face-lift surgery were associated with views that patients appeared younger, more attractive, healthier, and more successful. These findings highlight observer perceptions of face-lift surgery that could positively influence social interactions. NA.

Who perpetrates violence against children? A systematic analysis of age-specific and sex-specific data

PubMed Central

Devries, Karen; Knight, Louise; Petzold, Max; Merrill, Katherine G; Maxwell, Lauren; Williams, Abigail; Cappa, Claudia; Chan, Ko Ling; Garcia-Moreno, Claudia; Hollis, NaTasha; Kress, Howard; Peterman, Amber; Walsh, Sophie D; Kishor, Sunita; Guedes, Alessandra; Bott, Sarah; Butron Riveros, Betzabe C; Watts, Charlotte; Abrahams, Naeemah

2018-01-01

Objective The epidemiology of violence against children is likely to differ substantially by sex and age of the victim and the perpetrator. Thus far, investment in effective prevention strategies has been hindered by lack of clarity in the burden of childhood violence across these dimensions. We produced the first age-specific and sex-specific prevalence estimates by perpetrator type for physical, sexual and emotional violence against children globally. Design We used random effects meta-regression to estimate prevalence. Estimates were adjusted for relevant quality covariates, variation in definitions of violence and weighted by region-specific, age-specific and sex-specific population data to ensure estimates reflect country population structures. Data sources Secondary data from 600 population or school-based representative datasets and 43 publications obtained via systematic literature review, representing 13 830 estimates from 171 countries. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Estimates for recent violence against children aged 0–19 were included. Results The most common perpetrators of physical and emotional violence for both boys and girls across a range of ages are household members, with prevalence often surpassing 50%, followed by student peers. Children reported experiencing more emotional than physical violence from both household members and students. The most common perpetrators of sexual violence against girls aged 15–19 years are intimate partners; however, few data on other perpetrators of sexual violence against children are systematically collected internationally. Few age-specific and sex-specific data are available on violence perpetration by schoolteachers; however, existing data indicate high prevalence of physical violence from teachers towards students. Data from other authority figures, strangers, siblings and other adults are limited, as are data on neglect of children. Conclusions Without further investment in data generation on violence exposure from multiple perpetrators for boys and girls of all ages, progress towards Sustainable Development Goals 4, 5 and 16 may be slow. Despite data gaps, evidence shows violence from household members, peers in school and for girls, from intimate partners, should be prioritised for prevention. Trial registration number PROSPERO 2015: CRD42015024315. PMID:29637183

Calibration of amino acid racemization (AAR) kinetics in United States mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain Quaternary mollusks using 87Sr/ 86Sr analyses: Evaluation of kinetic models and estimation of regional Late Pleistocene temperature history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wehmiller, J.F.; Harris, W.B.; Boutin, B.S.; Farrell, K.M.

2012-01-01

The use of amino acid racemization (AAR) for estimating ages of Quaternary fossils usually requires a combination of kinetic and effective temperature modeling or independent age calibration of analyzed samples. Because of limited availability of calibration samples, age estimates are often based on model extrapolations from single calibration points over wide ranges of D/L values. Here we present paired AAR and 87Sr/ 86Sr results for Pleistocene mollusks from the North Carolina Coastal Plain, USA. 87Sr/ 86Sr age estimates, derived from the lookup table of McArthur et al. [McArthur, J.M., Howarth, R.J., Bailey, T.R., 2001. Strontium isotopic stratigraphy: LOWESS version 3: best fit to the marine Sr-isotopic curve for 0-509 Ma and accompanying Look-up table for deriving numerical age. Journal of Geology 109, 155-169], provide independent age calibration over the full range of amino acid D/L values, thereby allowing comparisons of alternative kinetic models for seven amino acids. The often-used parabolic kinetic model is found to be insufficient to explain the pattern of racemization, although the kinetic pathways for valine racemization and isoleucine epimerization can be closely approximated with this function. Logarithmic and power law regressions more accurately represent the racemization pathways for all amino acids. The reliability of a non-linear model for leucine racemization, developed and refined over the past 20 years, is confirmed by the 87Sr/ 86Sr age results. This age model indicates that the subsurface record (up to 80m thick) of the North Carolina Coastal Plain spans the entire Quaternary, back to ???2.5Ma. The calibrated kinetics derived from this age model yield an estimate of the effective temperature for the study region of 11??2??C., from which we estimate full glacial (Last Glacial Maximum - LGM) temperatures for the region on the order of 7-10??C cooler than present. These temperatures compare favorably with independent paleoclimate information for the region. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Age estimations of wild pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus, Forbes & Richardson 1905) based on pectoral fin spines, otoliths and bomb radiocarbon: inferences on recruitment in the dam-fragmented Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Braaten, P. J.; Campana, S. E.; Fuller, D. B.; Lott, R. D.; Bruch, R. M.; Jordan, G. R.

2015-01-01

An extant stock of wild pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus persists in the fragmented upper Missouri River basin of Montana and North Dakota. Although successful spawning and hatch of embryos has been verified, long-term catch records suggest that recruitment has not occurred for several decades as the extant stock lacks juvenile size classes and is comprised exclusively of large, presumably old individuals. Ages of 11 deceased (death years 1997–2007) wild S. albus (136–166 cm fork length) were estimated based on pectoral fin spines, sagittal otoliths and bomb radiocarbon (14C) assays of otoliths to test the hypothesis that members of this stock are old and to provide inferences on recruitment years that produced the extant stock. Age estimations based on counts of presumed annuli were about 2 years greater for otoliths (mean = 51 years, range = 43–57 years) than spines (mean = 49 years, range = 37–59 years). Based on 14C assays, confirmed birth years for all individuals occurred prior to 1957, thus establishing known longevity of at least 50 years. Estimated age based on presumed otolith annuli for one S. albus was validated to at least age 49. Although 14C assays confirmed pre-1957 birth years for all S. albus, only 56% of estimated ages from spines and 91% of estimated ages from otoliths depicted pre-1957 birth years. Both ageing structures were subject to under-ageing error (up to 15 years). Lack of or severe curtailment of S. albus recruitment in the upper Missouri River basin since the mid-1950s closely parallels the 1953–1957 timeframe when a mainstem reservoir was constructed and started to fill. This reservoir may function as a system-wide stressor to diminish recruitment success of S. albus in the upper Missouri River basin.

Quantifying pteridines in the heads of blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): Application for forensic entomology.

PubMed

Cammack, J A; Reiskind, M H; Guisewite, L M; Denning, S S; Watson, D W

2017-11-01

In forensic cases involving entomological evidence, establishing the postcolonization interval (post-CI) is a critical component of the investigation. Traditional methods of estimating the post-CI rely on estimating the age of immature blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) collected from remains. However, in cases of delayed discovery (e.g., when remains are located indoors), these insects may have completed their development and be present in the environment as adults. Adult fly collections are often ignored in cases of advanced decomposition because of a presumed little relevance to the investigation; herein we present information on how these insects can be of value. In this study we applied an age-grading technique to estimate the age of adults of Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius), Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius), and Phormia regina (Meigen), based on the temperature-dependent accumulation of pteridines in the compound eyes, when reared at temperatures ranging from 5 to 35°C. Age could be estimated for all species*sex*rearing temperature combinations (mean r 2 ±SE: 0.90±0.01) for all but P. regina reared at 5.4°C. These models can be used to increase the precision of post-CI estimates for remains found indoors, and the high r 2 values of 22 of the 24 regression equations indicates that this is a valid method for estimating the age of adult blow flies at temperatures ≥15°C. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of age-related changes with cross-sectional CT imaging of teeth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukui, Tatsumasa; Kita, Kanade; Kamemoto, Hiromasa; Nishiyama, Wataru; Yoshida, Hiroyasu; Iida, Yukihiro; Katsumata, Akitoshi; Muramatsu, Chisako; Fujita, Hiroshi

2017-03-01

Tooth pulp atrophy occurs with increasing age. An age estimation procedure using dental cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) imaging was developed. Clinical dental CBCT images of 60 patients (aged from 20 to 80 years) were evaluated. The ratio of the cross-sectional area of the pulp cavity to the cross-sectional area of the tooth (pulp cavity ratio) was calculated. The pulp cavity ratio in the labio-lingual plane of the mandibular anterior teeth and the mesio-distal plane of the maxillary anterior teeth was strongly correlated with the patients' age. The pulp cavity ratio of anterior teeth may be a useful parameter for estimating age.

A person trade-off study to estimate age-related weights for health gains in economic evaluation.

PubMed

Petrou, Stavros; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Robinson, Angela; Baker, Rachel

2013-10-01

An increasing body of literature is exploring whether the age of the recipient of health care should be a criterion in how health care resources are allocated. The existing literature is constrained both by the relatively small number of age comparison groups within preference-elicitation studies, and by a paucity of methodological robustness tests for order and framing effects and the reliability and transitivity of preferences that would strengthen confidence in the results. This paper reports the results of a study aimed at estimating granulated age-related weights for health gains across the age spectrum that can potentially inform health care decision-making. A sample of 2,500 participants recruited from the health care consumer panels of a social research company completed a person trade-off (or 'matching') study designed to estimate age-related weights for 5- and 10-year life extensions. The results are presented in terms of matrices for alternative age comparisons across the age spectrum. The results revealed a general, although not invariable, tendency to give more weight to health gains, expressed in terms of life extensions, in younger age groups. In over 85% of age comparisons, the person trade-off exercises revealed a preference for life extensions by the younger of the two age groups that were compared. This pattern held regardless of the method of aggregating responses across study participants. Moreover, the relative weight placed on life extensions by the younger of the two age groups was generally, although not invariably, found to increase as the age difference between the comparator age groups increased. Further analyses revealed that the highest mean relative weight placed on life extensions was estimated for 30-year-olds when the ratio of means method was used to aggregate person trade-off responses across study participants. The highest mean relative weight placed on life extensions was estimated for 10-year-olds for 5-year life extensions and for 30-year-olds for 10-year life extensions, when the median of individual ratios method was used to aggregate person trade-off responses across study participants. Methodological tests framed around alternative referents in the person trade-off questions and the stability of preferences had no discernible effects on the study results. This study has produced new evidence on age-related weights for health gains that can potentially inform health care decision-making.

Lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive men and women in the United States.

PubMed

Basu, Rituparna; Krueger, Patrick M; Lairson, David R; Franzini, Luisa

2011-01-01

Our objective was to estimate lifetime medical expenditures that can be attributed to hypertension, by gender, in the United States, given important gender differences in both survival and medical expenditures. We estimated lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive and nonhypertensive men and women aged 20 and older. Expenditures were estimated from the 2001 to 2004 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and life expectancies were estimated from the 1986 to 2002 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files. Assuming that medical technology, the cost of health care services, the incidence of disease, and survival were fixed, the cross-sectional age-specific expenditures and the survival profiles were used to estimate the lifetime expenditures from ages 20 to older than 85. The estimated lifetime expenditure for an average life table individual at age 20 was $188,300 for hypertensive men and $254,910 for hypertensive women; however, a greater share of lifetime expenditures can be attributed to hypertension among men ($88,033) than among women ($40,960). Although hypertensive women had greater lifetime expenditures than hypertensive men, hypertension was associated with a greater increase in lifetime expenditures for men than for women. Gender differences in both survival and health care utilization have important implications for gender differences in lifetime medical expenditures. Copyright © 2011 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. All rights reserved.

The effect of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity, hospitalization and medical expenditure in Turkey, 1999-2010.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Frank R; Tatar, Mehtap; Çalışkan, Zafer

2014-09-01

We investigate the impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity, hospitalization and medical expenditure in Turkey during the period 1999-2010 using longitudinal, disease-level data. From 1999 to 2008, mean age at death increased by 3.6 years, from 63.0 to 66.6 years. We estimate that in the absence of any pharmaceutical innovation, mean age at death would have increased by only 0.6 years. Hence, pharmaceutical innovation is estimated to have increased mean age at death in Turkey by 3.0 years during the period 1999-2008. We also examine the effect of pharmaceutical innovation on hospital utilization. We estimate that pharmaceutical innovation has reduced the number of hospital days by approximately 1% per year. We use our estimates of the effect of pharmaceutical innovation on age at death, hospital utilization and pharmaceutical expenditure to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical innovation, i.e., the cost per life-year gained from the introduction of new drugs. The baseline estimate of the cost per life-year gained from pharmaceutical innovation is $2776. Even the latter figure is a very small fraction of leading economists' estimates of the value of (or consumers' willingness to pay for) a one-year increase in life expectancy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical investigation on the mass loss impact on asteroseismic grid-based estimates of mass, radius, and age for RGB stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

2018-01-01

Aims: We aim to perform a theoretical evaluation of the impact of the mass loss indetermination on asteroseismic grid based estimates of masses, radii, and ages of stars in the red giant branch (RGB) phase. Methods: We adopted the SCEPtER pipeline on a grid spanning the mass range [0.8; 1.8] M⊙. As observational constraints, we adopted the star effective temperatures, the metallicity [Fe/H], the average large frequency spacing Δν, and the frequency of maximum oscillation power νmax. The mass loss was modelled following a Reimers parametrization with the two different efficiencies η = 0.4 and η = 0.8. Results: In the RGB phase, the average random relative error (owing only to observational uncertainty) on mass and age estimates is about 8% and 30% respectively. The bias in mass and age estimates caused by the adoption of a wrong mass loss parameter in the recovery is minor for the vast majority of the RGB evolution. The biases get larger only after the RGB bump. In the last 2.5% of the RGB lifetime the error on the mass determination reaches 6.5% becoming larger than the random error component in this evolutionary phase. The error on the age estimate amounts to 9%, that is, equal to the random error uncertainty. These results are independent of the stellar metallicity [Fe/H] in the explored range. Conclusions: Asteroseismic-based estimates of stellar mass, radius, and age in the RGB phase can be considered mass loss independent within the range (η ∈ [0.0,0.8]) as long as the target is in an evolutionary phase preceding the RGB bump.

Estimation of the aging grade of T91 steel by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy coupled with support vector machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Shengzi; Dong, Meirong; Huang, Jianwei; Li, Wenbing; Lu, Jidong; Li, Jun

2018-02-01

T91 steel is a representative martensitic heat-resistant steel widely used in high temperature compression components of industrial equipment. During the service period, the operation safety and the service life of the equipment will be affected by the change of structure and mechanical properties of the steel components, which is called material aging. In order to develop a rapid in-situ aging estimation technology of high temperature compression components surface, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) coupled with support vector machine (SVM) was employed in this paper. The spectral characteristics of 10 T91 steel specimens with different aging grades were analyzed. Line intensities and the line intensity ratios (ionic/atomic and alloying element/matrix element) that indicate the change of metallographic structure were used to establish SVM models, and the results using different variable sets were compared. The model was optimized by comparing different pulse number for practical effectiveness, and the robustness of the model was investigated in dealing with the inhomogeneity of steel composition. The study results show that the estimation model obtained the best performance using line intensities and line intensity ratios averaged from 31st-60th laser pulses as input variables. The estimation accuracy of validation set was greatly improved from 75.8% to 95.3%. In addition, the model showed the outstanding capacity for handling the fluctuations of spectral signals between measuring-points (spots), which indicated that the aging estimation based on a few measuring-points is feasible. The studies presented here demonstrate that the LIBS coupled with SVM is a new useful technique for the aging estimation of steel, and would be well-suited for fast safety assessment in industrial field.

Into the Past: A Step Towards a Robust Kimberley Rock Art Chronology

PubMed Central

Hayward, John

2016-01-01

The recent establishment of a minimum age estimate of 39.9 ka for the origin of rock art in Sulawesi has challenged claims that Western Europe was the locus for the production of the world’s earliest art assemblages. Tantalising excavated evidence found across northern Australian suggests that Australia too contains a wealth of ancient art. However, the dating of rock art itself remains the greatest obstacle to be addressed if the significance of Australian assemblages are to be recognised on the world stage. A recent archaeological project in the northwest Kimberley trialled three dating techniques in order to establish chronological markers for the proposed, regional, relative stylistic sequence. Applications using optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) provided nine minimum age estimates for fossilised mudwasp nests overlying a range of rock art styles, while Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon (AMS 14C) results provided an additional four. Results confirm that at least one phase of the northwest Kimberley rock art assemblage is Pleistocene in origin. A complete motif located on the ceiling of a rockshelter returned a minimum age estimate of 16 ± 1 ka. Further, our results demonstrate the inherent problems in relying solely on stylistic classifications to order rock art assemblages into temporal sequences. An earlier than expected minimum age estimate for one style and a maximum age estimate for another together illustrate that the Holocene Kimberley rock art sequence is likely to be far more complex than generally accepted with different styles produced contemporaneously well into the last few millennia. It is evident that reliance on techniques that produce minimum age estimates means that many more dating programs will need to be undertaken before the stylistic sequence can be securely dated. PMID:27579865

The association between booster seat use and risk of death among motor vehicle occupants aged 4-8: a matched cohort study.

PubMed

Rice, T M; Anderson, C L; Lee, A S

2009-12-01

To estimate the effectiveness of booster seats and of seatbelts in reducing the risk of child death during traffic collisions and to examine possible effect modification by various collision and vehicle characteristics. A matched cohort study was conducted using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. Death risk ratios were estimated with conditional Poisson regression, bootstrapped coefficient standard errors, and multiply imputed missing values using chained equations. Estimated death risk ratios for booster seats used with seatbelts were 0.33 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.40) for children age 4-5 years and 0.45 (0.31 to 0.63) for children aged 6-8 years (Wald test of homogeneity p<0.005). The estimated risk ratios for seatbelt used alone were similar for the two age groups, 0.37 (0.32 to 0.43) and 0.39 (0.34 to 0.44) for ages 4-5 and 6-8, respectively (Wald p = 0.61). Estimated booster seat effectiveness was significantly greater for inbound seating positions (Wald p = 0.05) and during rollovers collisions (Wald p = 0.01). Significant variability in risk ratio estimates was not observed across levels of calendar year, vehicle model year, vehicle type, or land use. Seatbelts, used with or without booster seats, are highly effective in preventing death among motor vehicle occupants aged 4-8 years. Booster seats do not appear to improve the performance of seatbelts with respect to preventing death (risk ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.08, comparing seatbelts with boosters to seatbelts alone), but because several studies have found that booster seats reduce non-fatal injury severity, clinicians and injury prevention specialists should continue to recommend the use of boosters to parents of young children.

Into the Past: A Step Towards a Robust Kimberley Rock Art Chronology.

PubMed

Ross, June; Westaway, Kira; Travers, Meg; Morwood, Michael J; Hayward, John

2016-01-01

The recent establishment of a minimum age estimate of 39.9 ka for the origin of rock art in Sulawesi has challenged claims that Western Europe was the locus for the production of the world's earliest art assemblages. Tantalising excavated evidence found across northern Australian suggests that Australia too contains a wealth of ancient art. However, the dating of rock art itself remains the greatest obstacle to be addressed if the significance of Australian assemblages are to be recognised on the world stage. A recent archaeological project in the northwest Kimberley trialled three dating techniques in order to establish chronological markers for the proposed, regional, relative stylistic sequence. Applications using optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) provided nine minimum age estimates for fossilised mudwasp nests overlying a range of rock art styles, while Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon (AMS 14C) results provided an additional four. Results confirm that at least one phase of the northwest Kimberley rock art assemblage is Pleistocene in origin. A complete motif located on the ceiling of a rockshelter returned a minimum age estimate of 16 ± 1 ka. Further, our results demonstrate the inherent problems in relying solely on stylistic classifications to order rock art assemblages into temporal sequences. An earlier than expected minimum age estimate for one style and a maximum age estimate for another together illustrate that the Holocene Kimberley rock art sequence is likely to be far more complex than generally accepted with different styles produced contemporaneously well into the last few millennia. It is evident that reliance on techniques that produce minimum age estimates means that many more dating programs will need to be undertaken before the stylistic sequence can be securely dated.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Assessment of the dorsal fin spine for chimaeroid (Holocephali: Chimaeriformes) age estimation.

PubMed

Barnett, L A K; Ebert, D A; Cailliet, G M

2009-10-01

Previous attempts to age chimaeroids have not rigorously tested assumptions of dorsal fin spine growth dynamics. Here, novel imaging and data-analysis techniques revealed that the dorsal fin spine of the spotted ratfish Hydrolagus colliei is an unreliable structure for age estimation. Variation among individuals in the relationship between spine width and distance from the spine tip indicated that the technique of transverse sectioning may impart imprecision and bias to age estimates. The number of growth-band pairs observed by light microscopy in the inner dentine layer was not a good predictor of body size. Mineral density gradients, indicative of growth zones, were absent in the dorsal fin spine of H. colliei, decreasing the likelihood that the bands observed by light microscopy represent a record of growth with consistent periodicity. These results indicate that the hypothesis of aseasonal growth remains plausible and it should not be assumed that chimaeroid age is quantifiable by standard techniques.

Age-class structure and variability of two populations of the bluemask darter etheostoma (Doration) sp.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simmons, J.W.; Layzer, J.B.; Smith, D.D.

2008-01-01

The bluemask darter Etheostoma (Doration) sp. is an endangered fish endemic to the upper Caney Fork system in the Cumberland River drainage in central Tennessee. Darters (Etheostoma spp.) are typically short-lived and exhibit rapid growth that quickly decreases with age. Consequently, estimating age of darters from length-frequency distributions can be difficult and subjective. We used a nonparametric kernel density estimator to reduce subjectivity in estimating ages of bluemask darters. Data were collected from a total of 2926 bluemask darters from the Collins River throughout three growing seasons. Additionally, data were collected from 842 bluemask darters from the Rocky River during one growing season. Analysis of length-frequencies indicated the presence of four age classes in both rivers. In each river, the majority of the population was comprised of fish 0.05). In both rivers, females were more abundant than males.

Non-invasive prediction of bloodstain age using the principal component and a back propagation artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Huimin; Meng, Yaoyong; Zhang, Pingli; Li, Yajing; Li, Nan; Li, Caiyun; Guo, Zhiyou

2017-09-01

The age determination of bloodstains is an important and immediate challenge for forensic science. No reliable methods are currently available for estimating the age of bloodstains. Here we report a method for determining the age of bloodstains at different storage temperatures. Bloodstains were stored at 37 °C, 25 °C, 4 °C, and  -20 °C for 80 d. Bloodstains were measured using Raman spectroscopy at various time points. The principal component and a back propagation artificial neural network model were then established for estimating the age of the bloodstains. The results were ideal; the square of correlation coefficient was up to 0.99 (R 2  >  0.99) and the root mean square error of the prediction at lowest reached 55.9829 h. This method is real-time, non-invasive, non-destructive and highly efficiency. It may well prove that Raman spectroscopy is a promising tool for the estimation of the age of bloodstains.

White dwarf stars and the age of the Galactic disk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, M. A.

1990-01-01

The history of the Galaxy is written in its oldest stars, the white dwarf (WD) stars. Significant limits can be placed on both the Galactic age and star formation history. A wide range of input WD model sequences is used to derive the current limits to the age estimates suggested by fitting to the observed falloff in the WD luminosity function. The results suggest that the star formation rate over the history of the Galaxy has been relatively constant, and that the disk age lies in the range 6-12 billion years, depending upon the assumed structure of WD stars, and in particular on the core composition and surface helium layer mass. Using plausible mixed C/O core input models, the estimates for the disk age range from 8-10.5 Gyr, i.e.,sustantially younger than most age estimates for the halo globular clusters. After speculating on the significance of the results, expected observational and theoretical refinements which will further enhance the reliability of the method are discussed.

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Prioritising sewerage maintenance using inferred sewer age: a case study for Edinburgh.

PubMed

Arthur, S; Burkhard, R

2010-01-01

The reported research project focuses on using a database which contains details of customer contacts and CCTV data for a key Scottish catchment to construct a GIS based sewer condition model. Given the nature of the asset registry, a key research challenge was estimating the age of individual lengths of pipe. Within this context, asset age was inferred using the estimated age of surface developments-this involved overlaying the network in a GIS with historical digital maps. The paper illustrates that inferred asset age can reliably be used to highlight assets which are more likely to fail.

Large and Small Magellanic Clouds age-metallicity relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perren, G. I.; Piatti, A. E.; Vázquez, R. A.

2017-10-01

We present a new determination of the age-metallicity relation for both Magellanic Clouds, estimated through the homogeneous analysis of 239 observed star clusters. All clusters in our set were observed with the filters of the Washington photometric system. The Automated Stellar cluster Analysis package (ASteCA) was employed to derive the cluster's fundamental parameters, in particular their ages and metallicities, through an unassisted process. We find that our age-metallicity relations (AMRs) can not be fully matched to any of the estimations found in twelve previous works, and are better explained by a combination of several of them in different age intervals.

Some analytical models to estimate maternal age at birth using age-specific fertility rates.

PubMed

Pandey, A; Suchindran, C M

1995-01-01

"A class of analytical models to study the distribution of maternal age at different births from the data on age-specific fertility rates has been presented. Deriving the distributions and means of maternal age at birth of any specific order, final parity and at next-to-last birth, we have extended the approach to estimate parity progression ratios and the ultimate parity distribution of women in the population.... We illustrate computations of various components of the model expressions with the current fertility experiences of the United States for 1970." excerpt

CORKSCREW 2013 CORK study of children's realistic estimation of weight.

PubMed

Skrobo, Darko; Kelleher, Gemma

2015-01-01

In a resuscitation situation involving a child (age 1-15 years) it is crucial to obtain a weight as most interventions and management depend on it. The APLS formula, '2×(age+4)', is taught via the APLS course and is widely used in Irish hospitals. As the prevalence of obesity is increasing the accuracy of the formula has been questioned and a newer formula has been suggested, the Luscombe and Owens (LO) formula, '(3×age)+7'. To gather data on the weights and ages of the Cork paediatric population (ages 1-15 years) attending services at the Cork University Hospital (CUH), and to identify which of the two age-based weight estimation formulae has best diagnostic accuracy. CUH, Ireland's only level one trauma centre. Retrospective data collection from charts in the Emergency Department, Paediatric Assessment Unit and the Paediatric wards of CUH. 3155 children aged 1-15 years were included in the study. There were 1344 girls and 1811 boys. The formula weight='2×(age+4)' underestimated children's weights by a mean of 20.3% (95% CI 19.7% to 20.9%) for the ages of 1-15 years. The LO formula weight='(3×age)+7' showed a mean underestimation of 4.0% (95% CI 3.3% to 4.6%) for the same age range. The LO formula has been validated in several studies and proven to be a superior age-based weight estimation formula in many western emergency departments. This study shows that the LO formula leads to less underestimation of weights in Irish children than the APLS formula. It is a simple, safe and more accurate age-based estimation formula that can be used over a large age range (1-15 years). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

[Estimated mammogram coverage in Goiás State, Brazil].

PubMed

Corrêa, Rosangela da Silveira; Freitas-Júnior, Ruffo; Peixoto, João Emílio; Rodrigues, Danielle Cristina Netto; Lemos, Maria Eugênia da Fonseca; Marins, Lucy Aparecida Parreira; Silveira, Erika Aparecida da

2011-09-01

This cross-sectional study aimed to estimate mammogram coverage in the State of Goiás, Brazil, describing the supply, demand, and variations in different age groups, evaluating 98 mammography services as observational units. We estimated the mammogram rates by age group and type of health service, as well as the number of tests required to cover 70% and 100% of the target population. We assessed the association between mammograms, geographical distribution of mammography machines, type of service, and age group. Full coverage estimates, considering 100% of women in the 40-69 and 50-69-year age brackets, were 61% and 66%, of which the Brazilian Unified National Health System provided 13% and 14%, respectively. To achieve 70% coverage, 43,424 additional mammograms would be needed. All the associations showed statistically significant differences (p < 0.001). We conclude that mammogram coverage is unevenly distributed in the State of Goiás and that fewer tests are performed than required.

Age estimation by modified Demirjian's method (2004) and its applicability in Tibetan young adults: A digital panoramic study.

PubMed

Bijjaragi, Shobha C; Sangle, Varsha A; Saraswathi, F K; Patil, Veerendra S; Ashwini Rani, S R; Bapure, Sunil K

2015-01-01

Estimation of the age is a procedure adopted by anthropologists, archeologists and forensic scientists. Different methods have been undertaken. However none of them meet the standards as Demirjian's method since 1973. Various researchers have applied this method, in both original and modified form (Chaillet and Demirjian in 2004) in different ethnic groups and the results obtained were not satisfactory. To determine the applicability and accuracy of modified Demirjian's method of dental age estimation (AE) in 8-18 year old Tibetan young adults to evaluate the interrelationship between dental and chronological age and the reliability between intra- and inter observer relationship. Clinical setting and computerized design. A total of 300 Tibetan young adults with an age range from 8 to 18 years were recruited in the study. Digital panoramic radiographs (DPRs) were evaluated as per the modified Demirjian's method (2004). Pearson correlation, paired t-test, linear regression analysis. Inter -and intraobserver reliability revealed a strong agreement. A positive and strong association was found between chronological age and estimated dental age (r = 0.839) with P < 0.01. Modified Demirjian method (2004) overestimated the age by 0.04 years (2.04 months)in Tibetan young adults. Results suggest that, the modified Demirjian method of AE is not suitable for Tibetan young adults. Further studies: With larger sample size and comparision with different methods of AE in a given population would be an interesting area for future research.

The Economic Impact of Blindness in Europe.

PubMed

Chakravarthy, Usha; Biundo, Eliana; Saka, Rasit Omer; Fasser, Christina; Bourne, Rupert; Little, Julie-Anne

2017-08-01

To estimate the annual loss of productivity from blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) in the population aged >50 years in the European Union (EU). We estimated the cost of lost productivity using three simple models reported in the literature based on (1) minimum wage (MW), (2) gross national income (GNI), and (3) purchasing power parity-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP-PPP) losses. In the first two models, assumptions included that all individuals worked until 65 years of age, and that half of all visual impairment cases in the >50-year age group would be in those aged between 50 and 65 years. Loss of productivity was estimated to be 100% for blind individuals and 30% for those with MSVI. None of these models included direct medical costs related to visual impairment. The estimated number of blind people in the EU population aged >50 years is ~1.28 million, with a further 9.99 million living with MSVI. Based on the three models, the estimated cost of blindness is €7.81 billion, €6.29 billion and €17.29 billion and that of MSVI €18.02 billion, €24.80 billion and €39.23 billion, with their combined costs €25.83 billion, €31.09 billion and €56.52 billion, respectively. The estimates from the MW and adjusted GDP-PPP models were generally comparable, whereas the GNI model estimates were higher, probably reflecting the lack of adjustment for unemployment. The cost of blindness and MSVI in the EU is substantial. Wider use of available cost-effective treatment and prevention strategies may reduce the burden significantly.

Comparison between Greulich-Pyle and Girdany-Golden methods for estimating skeletal age of children in Pakistan.

PubMed

Awais, Muhammad; Nadeem, Naila; Husen, Yousuf; Rehman, Abdul; Beg, Madiha; Khattak, Yasir Jamil

2014-12-01

To compare Greulich-Pyle (GP) and Girdany-Golden (GG) methods for estimation of Skeletal Age (SA) in children referred to a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. Cross-sectional study. Department of Radiology, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, from July 2010 to June 2012. Children up to the age of 18 years, who had undergone X-ray for the evaluation of trauma were included. Each X-ray was interpreted using both methods by two consultant paediatric radiologists having at least 10 years experience, who were blinded to the actual Chronologic Age (CA) of children. A total of 283 children were included. No significant difference was noted in mean SA estimated by GP method and mean CA for female children (p=0.695). However, a significant difference was noted between mean CA and mean SA by GG method for females (p=0.011). For males, there was a significant difference between mean CA and mean SA estimated by both GP and GG methods. A stronger correlation was found between CA and SA estimated by GP method (r=0.943 for girls, r=0.915 for boys) as compared to GG method (r=0.909 for girls, r=0.865 for boys) respectively. Bland- Altman analysis also revealed that the two methods cannot be used interchangeably. Excellent correlation was seen between the two readers for both GP and GG methods. There was no additional benefit of using GP and GG methods simultaneously over using GP method alone. Moreover, although GP was reliable in estimating SA in girls, it was unable to accurately assess SA in boys. Therefore, it would be ideal to develop indigenous standards of bone age estimation based on a representative sample of healthy native children.

Telemetry-based mortality estimates of juvenile spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedl, Sarah E.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Scharf, Frederick S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

2013-01-01

We estimated natural mortality rates (M) of age-1 Spot Leiostomus xanthurus by using a sonic telemetry approach. Sonic transmitters were surgically implanted into a total of 123 age-1 Spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks during spring 2009 and 2010, and the fish were monitored by using a stationary acoustic receiver array and manual tracking. Fates of telemetered Spot were inferred based on telemetry information from estimated locations and swimming speeds. Potential competitors of age-1 Spot were assessed through simultaneous otter trawl sampling, while potential predators of Spot were collected using gill nets and trammel nets. The number of inferred natural mortalities was zero in 2009 (based on 29 telemetered Spot at risk) and four in 2010 (based on 52 fish at risk), with fish being at risk for up to about 70 d each year. Catches of potential competitors or predators did not differ between years, and age-1 Spot were not found in analyzed stomach contents of potential predators. Our estimated 30-d M of 0.03 (95% credible interval = 0.01–0.07) was lower than that predicted from weight-based (M = 0.07) and life-history-based (M = 0.06–0.36) estimates. Our field-based estimate of M for age-1 Spot in this estuarine system can assist in the assessment and management of Spot by allowing a direct comparison with M-values predicted from fish size or life history characteristics. The field telemetry and statistical analysis techniques developed here provide guidance for future telemetry studies of relatively small fish in open, dynamic habitat systems, as they highlight strengths and weaknesses of using a telemetry approach to estimate M.

Estimation of height and body mass index from demi-span in elderly individuals.

PubMed

Weinbrenner, Tanja; Vioque, Jesús; Barber, Xavier; Asensio, Laura

2006-01-01

Obtaining accurate height and, consequently, body mass index (BMI) measurements in elderly subjects can be difficult due to changes in posture and loss of height during ageing. Measurements of other body segments can be used as an alternative to estimate standing height, but population- and age-specific equations are necessary. Our objectives were to validate existing equations, to develop new simple equations to predict height in an elderly Spanish population and to assess the accuracy of the BMI calculated by estimated height from the new equations. We measured height and demi-span in a representative sample of 592 individuals, 271 men and 321 women, 65 years and older (mean +/- SD, 73.8 +/- 6.3 years). We suggested equations to predict height from demi-span by multiple regression analyses and performed an agreement analysis between measured and estimated indices. Height estimated from demi-span correlated significantly (p < 0.001) with measured height (men: r = 0.708, women: r = 0.625). The best prediction equations were as follows: men, height (in cm) = 77.821 + (1.132 x demi-span in cm) + (-0.215 x 5-year age category); women: height (in cm) = 88.854 + (0.899 x demi-span in cm) + (-0.692 x 5-year age category). No significant differences between the mean values of estimated and measured heights were found for men (-0.03 +/- 4.6 cm) or women (-0.02 +/- 4.1 cm). The BMI derived from measured height did not differ significantly from the BMI derived from estimated height either. Predicted height values from equations based on demi-span and age may be acceptable surrogates to derive accurate nutritional indices such as the BMI, particularly in elderly populations, where height may be difficult to measure accurately.

Projected number of children with isolated spina bifida or down syndrome in England and Wales by 2020.

PubMed

Best, Kate E; Glinianaia, Svetlana V; Lingam, Raghu; Morris, Joan K; Rankin, Judith

2018-05-19

Children with major congenital anomalies often require lifelong access to health and social care services. Estimating future numbers of affected individuals can aid health and social care planning. This study aimed to estimate the number of children aged 0-15 years living with spina bifida or Down syndrome in England and Wales by 2020. Cases of spina bifida and Down syndrome born during 1998-2013 were identified from the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey and the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register, respectively. The number of infants born with spina bifida during 1998-2019 were estimated by applying the average prevalence rate in the North of England to actual and projected births in England and Wales. Poisson regression was performed to estimate the number of infants born with Down syndrome in England and Wales during 1998-2013 and 2004-2019. The numbers of children aged 0-15 living with spina bifida or Down syndrome in 2014 and in 2020 were then estimated by multiplying year- and age-specific survival estimates by the number of affected births. An estimated 956 children with isolated spina bifida, 623 children with spina bifida and hydrocephalus and 11,592 children with Down syndrome aged 0-15 years will be living in England and Wales by 2020, increases of 7.2%, 12.0% and 12.7% since 2014, respectively. Due to improvements in survival, an increase in population size and changes in maternal age distribution at delivery, we anticipate further increases in the number of children living with spina bifida or Down syndrome by 2020. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

How many individuals will need to be screened to increase colorectal cancer screening prevalence to 80% by 2018?

PubMed

Fedewa, Stacey A; Ma, Jiemin; Sauer, Ann Goding; Siegel, Rebecca L; Smith, Robert A; Wender, Richard C; Doroshenk, Mary K; Brawley, Otis W; Ward, Elizabeth M; Jemal, Ahmedin

2015-12-01

A recent study estimates that 277,000 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and 203,000 CRC deaths will be averted between 2013 and 2030 if the National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable goal of increasing CRC screening prevalence to 80% by 2018 is reached. However, the number of individuals who need to be screened (NNS) to achieve this goal is unknown. In this communication, the authors estimate the NNS to achieve 80% by 2018 nationwide and by state. The authors estimated the NNS by subtracting adults aged 50 to 75 years who would need to be screened to achieve an 80% CRC screening prevalence from the number who are currently guideline-compliant from population estimates for this age group. The 2013 National Health Interview Survey and the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to estimate CRC screening prevalence and data from the US Census Bureau were used to estimate population projections. The NNS were age-standardized and sex-standardized. Nationwide, 24.39 million individuals (95% confidence interval, 24.37-24.41 million) aged 50 to 75 years will need to be screened to achieve 80% by 2018. By state, the NNS ranged from 45,400 in Vermont to 2.72 million in California. The majority of individuals who need to be screened are aged 50 to 64 years and the largest subgroup is privately insured. The authors estimated that at least 24.4 million additional individuals in the United States will need to be screened to achieve the National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable goal of increasing CRC screening prevalence to 80% by 2018. To reach this goal, improving facilitators of CRC screening, including physician recommendation and patient awareness, is needed. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Relaxed clocks and inferences of heterogeneous patterns of nucleotide substitution and divergence time estimates across whales and dolphins (Mammalia: Cetacea).

PubMed

Dornburg, Alex; Brandley, Matthew C; McGowen, Michael R; Near, Thomas J

2012-02-01

Various nucleotide substitution models have been developed to accommodate among lineage rate heterogeneity, thereby relaxing the assumptions of the strict molecular clock. Recently developed "uncorrelated relaxed clock" and "random local clock" (RLC) models allow decoupling of nucleotide substitution rates between descendant lineages and are thus predicted to perform better in the presence of lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. However, it is uncertain how these models perform in the presence of punctuated shifts in substitution rate, especially between closely related clades. Using cetaceans (whales and dolphins) as a case study, we test the performance of these two substitution models in estimating both molecular rates and divergence times in the presence of substantial lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. Our RLC analyses of whole mitochondrial genome alignments find evidence for up to ten clade-specific nucleotide substitution rate shifts in cetaceans. We provide evidence that in the uncorrelated relaxed clock framework, a punctuated shift in the rate of molecular evolution within a subclade results in posterior rate estimates that are either misled or intermediate between the disparate rate classes present in baleen and toothed whales. Using simulations, we demonstrate abrupt changes in rate isolated to one or a few lineages in the phylogeny can mislead rate and age estimation, even when the node of interest is calibrated. We further demonstrate how increasing prior age uncertainty can bias rate and age estimates, even while the 95% highest posterior density around age estimates decreases; in other words, increased precision for an inaccurate estimate. We interpret the use of external calibrations in divergence time studies in light of these results, suggesting that rate shifts at deep time scales may mislead inferences of absolute molecular rates and ages.

Computerized Bone Age Estimation Using Deep Learning Based Program: Evaluation of the Accuracy and Efficiency.

PubMed

Kim, Jeong Rye; Shim, Woo Hyun; Yoon, Hee Mang; Hong, Sang Hyup; Lee, Jin Seong; Cho, Young Ah; Kim, Sangki

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of a new automatic software system for bone age assessment and to validate its feasibility in clinical practice. A Greulich-Pyle method-based deep-learning technique was used to develop the automatic software system for bone age determination. Using this software, bone age was estimated from left-hand radiographs of 200 patients (3-17 years old) using first-rank bone age (software only), computer-assisted bone age (two radiologists with software assistance), and Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age (two radiologists with Greulich-Pyle atlas assistance only). The reference bone age was determined by the consensus of two experienced radiologists. First-rank bone ages determined by the automatic software system showed a 69.5% concordance rate and significant correlations with the reference bone age (r = 0.992; p < 0.001). Concordance rates increased with the use of the automatic software system for both reviewer 1 (63.0% for Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age vs 72.5% for computer-assisted bone age) and reviewer 2 (49.5% for Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age vs 57.5% for computer-assisted bone age). Reading times were reduced by 18.0% and 40.0% for reviewers 1 and 2, respectively. Automatic software system showed reliably accurate bone age estimations and appeared to enhance efficiency by reducing reading times without compromising the diagnostic accuracy.

Age estimation using cortical surface pattern combining thickness with curvatures

PubMed Central

Wang, Jieqiong; Li, Wenjing; Miao, Wen; Dai, Dai; Hua, Jing; He, Huiguang

2014-01-01

Brain development and healthy aging have been proved to follow a specific pattern, which, in turn, can be applied to help doctors diagnose mental diseases. In this paper, we design a cortical surface pattern (CSP) combining the cortical thickness with curvatures, which constructs an accurate human age estimation model with relevance vector regression. We test our model with two public databases. One is the IXI database (360 healthy subjects aging from 20 to 82 years old were selected), and the other is the INDI database (303 subjects aging from 7 to 22 years old were selected). The results show that our model can achieve as small as 4.57 years deviation in the IXI database and 1.38 years deviation in the INDI database. Furthermore, we employ this surface pattern to age groups classification, and get a remarkably high accuracy (97.77%) and a significantly high sensitivity/specificity (97.30%/98.10%). These results suggest that our designed CSP combining thickness with curvatures is stable and sensitive to brain development, and it is much more powerful than voxel-based morphometry used in previous methods for age estimation. PMID:24395657

Physiological frailty index (PFI): quantitative in-life estimate of individual biological age in mice.

PubMed

Antoch, Marina P; Wrobel, Michelle; Kuropatwinski, Karen K; Gitlin, Ilya; Leonova, Katerina I; Toshkov, Ilia; Gleiberman, Anatoli S; Hutson, Alan D; Chernova, Olga B; Gudkov, Andrei V

2017-03-19

The development of healthspan-extending pharmaceuticals requires quantitative estimation of age-related progressive physiological decline. In humans, individual health status can be quantitatively assessed by means of a frailty index (FI), a parameter which reflects the scale of accumulation of age-related deficits. However, adaptation of this methodology to animal models is a challenging task since it includes multiple subjective parameters. Here we report a development of a quantitative non-invasive procedure to estimate biological age of an individual animal by creating physiological frailty index (PFI). We demonstrated the dynamics of PFI increase during chronological aging of male and female NIH Swiss mice. We also demonstrated acceleration of growth of PFI in animals placed on a high fat diet, reflecting aging acceleration by obesity and provide a tool for its quantitative assessment. Additionally, we showed that PFI could reveal anti-aging effect of mTOR inhibitor rapatar (bioavailable formulation of rapamycin) prior to registration of its effects on longevity. PFI revealed substantial sex-related differences in normal chronological aging and in the efficacy of detrimental (high fat diet) or beneficial (rapatar) aging modulatory factors. Together, these data introduce PFI as a reliable, non-invasive, quantitative tool suitable for testing potential anti-aging pharmaceuticals in pre-clinical studies.

A lower limit on the age of the universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaboyer, B.; Demarque, P.; Kernan, P.J.

1996-02-16

A detailed numerical study was designed and conducted to estimate the absolute age and the uncertainty in age (with confidence limits) of the oldest globular clusters in our galaxy, and hence to put a robust lower bound on the age of the universe. Estimates of the uncertainty range and distribution in the input parameters of stellar evolution codes were used to produce 1000 Monte Carlo realizations of stellar isochrones, which were then used to derive ages for the 17 oldest globular clusters. A probability distribution for the mean age of these systems was derived by incorporating the observational uncertainties inmore » chrones. The dominant contribution to the width of the distribution (approximately {sup +}{sub -}5) magnitudes. Subdominant contributions came from the choice of the color table used to translate theoretical luminosities and temperatures to observed magnitudes and colors, as well as from theoretical uncertainties in heavy element abundances and mixing length. The one-sided 95 percent confidence limit lower bound for this distribution occurs at an age of 12.07 X 10{sup 9} years, and the median age for the distribution is 14.56 X 10{sup 9} years. These age limits, when compared with the Hubble age estimate, put powerful constraints on cosmology. 41 refs., 2 figs.« less

Sociological effects on vocal aging: Age related F0 effects in two languages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagao, Kyoko

2005-04-01

Listeners can estimate the age of a speaker fairly accurately from their speech (Ptacek and Sander, 1966). It is generally considered that this perception is based on physiologically determined aspects of the speech. However, the degree to which it is due to conventional sociolinguistic aspects of speech is unknown. The current study examines the degree to which fundamental frequency (F0) changes due to advanced aging across two language groups of speakers. It also examines the degree to which the speakers associate these changes with aging in a voice disguising task. Thirty native speakers each of English and Japanese, taken from three age groups, read a target phrase embedded in a carrier sentence in their native language. Each speaker also read the sentence pretending to be 20-years younger or 20-years older than their own age. Preliminary analysis of eighteen Japanese speakers indicates that the mean and maximum F0 values increase when the speakers pretended to be younger than when they pretended to be older. Some previous studies on age perception, however, suggested that F0 has minor effects on listeners' age estimation. The acoustic results will also be discussed in conjunction with the results of the listeners' age estimation of the speakers.

How 15 Hundred Is like 15 Cherries: Effect of Progressive Alignment on Representational Changes in Numerical Cognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Clarissa A.; Opfer, John E.

2010-01-01

How does understanding the decimal system change with age and experience? Second, third, sixth graders, and adults (Experiment 1: N = 96, mean ages = 7.9, 9.23, 12.06, and 19.96 years, respectively) made number line estimates across 3 scales (0-1,000, 0-10,000, and 0-100,000). Generation of linear estimates increased with age but decreased with…

AMS 14C analysis of teeth from archaeological sites showing anomalous esr dating results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grün, Rainer; Abeyratne, Mohan; Head, John; Tuniz, Claudio; Hedges, Robert E. M.

We have carried out AMS radiocarbon analysis on two groups of samples: the first one gave reasonable ESR age estimates and the second one yielded serious age underestinations. All samples were supposedly older than 35 ka, the oldest being around 160 ka. Two pretreatment techniques were used for radiocarbon dating: acid evolution and thermal release. Heating to 600, 750 and 900°C combined with total de-gassing at these temperatures was chosen to obtain age estimates on the organic fraction, secondary carbonates and original carbonate present in the hydroxyapatite mineral phase, respectively. All radiocarbon results present serious age underestimations. The secondary carbonate fraction gives almost modern results indicating an extremely rapid exchange of this component. Owing to this very rapid carbonate exchange it is not likely that the ESR signals used for dating are associated with the secondary carbonates. One tooth from Tabun with independent age estimates of >150 ka was further investigated by the Oxford AMS laboratory, yielding an age estimate of 1930±100 BP on the residual collagen from dentine and 18,000±160 BP on the carbonate component of the enamel bioapatite. We did not, however, find an explanation of why some samples give serious ESR underestimatioils whilst many others provide reasonable results.

Validation of daily increments periodicity in otoliths of spotted gar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snow, Richard A.; Long, James M.; Frenette, Bryan D.

2017-01-01

Accurate age and growth information is essential in successful management of fish populations and for understanding early life history. We validated daily increment deposition, including the timing of first ring formation, for spotted gar (Lepisosteus oculatus) through 127 days post hatch. Fry were produced from hatchery-spawned specimens, and up to 10 individuals per week were sacrificed and their otoliths (sagitta, lapillus, and asteriscus) removed for daily age estimation. Daily age estimates for all three otolith pairs were significantly related to known age. The strongest relationships existed for measurements from the sagitta (r2 = 0.98) and the lapillus (r2 = 0.99) with asteriscus (r2 = 0.95) the lowest. All age prediction models resulted in a slope near unity, indicating that ring deposition occurred approximately daily. Initiation of ring formation varied among otolith types, with deposition beginning 3, 7, and 9 days for the sagitta, lapillus, and asteriscus, respectively. Results of this study suggested that otoliths are useful to estimate daily age of spotted gar juveniles; these data may be used to back calculate hatch dates, estimate early growth rates, and correlate with environmental factor that influence spawning in wild populations. is early life history information will be valuable in better understanding the ecology of this species. 

Age estimation by dentin translucency measurement using digital method: An institutional study

PubMed Central

Gupta, Shalini; Chandra, Akhilesh; Agnihotri, Archana; Gupta, Om Prakash; Maurya, Niharika

2017-01-01

Aims: The aims of the present study were to measure translucency on sectioned teeth using available computer hardware and software, to correlate dimensions of root dentin translucency with age, and to assess whether translucency is reliable for age estimation. Materials and Methods: A pilot study was done on 62 freshly extracted single-rooted permanent teeth from 62 different individuals (35 males and 27 females) and their 250 μm thick sections were prepared by micromotor, carborundum disks, and Arkansas stone. Each tooth section was scanned and the images were opened in the Adobe Photoshop software. Measurement of root dentin translucency (TD length) was done on the scanned image by placing two guides (A and B) along the x-axis of ABFO NO. 2 scale. Unpaired t-test, regression analysis, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used as statistical tools. Results: A linear relationship was observed between TD length and age in the regression analysis. The Pearson correlation analysis showed that there was positive correlation (r = 0.52, P = 0.0001) between TD length and age. However, no significant (P > 0.05) difference was observed in the TD length between male (8.44 ± 2.92 mm) and female (7.80 ± 2.79 mm) samples. Conclusion: Translucency of the root dentin increases with age and it can be used as a reliable parameter for the age estimation. The method used here to digitally select and measure translucent root dentin is more refined, better correlated to age, and produce superior age estimation. PMID:28584476

Is Greulich and Pyle standards of skeletal maturation applicable for age estimation in South Indian Andhra children?

PubMed

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Rao, Dola Srinivasa; Goud, Alampur Srinivas; Sailaja, S; Thetay, Anshuj Ajay Rao; Gopalakrishnan, Meera

2015-01-01

Now-a-day age determination has gained importance for various forensic and legal reasons. Skeletal age (SA) of a test population can be estimated by comparing with established standards of Greulich and Pyle (G-P). As this atlas has been prepared using data from upper-class children born between 1917 and 1942 in the USA and the applicability of these standards to contemporary populations has yet to be tested on Andhra children living in India. Hence, this study was aimed to assess the reliability of bone age calculated by G-P atlas in estimation of age in selected population. A total of 660 children (330 girls, 330 boys) between ages 9 and 20 years were randomly selected from outpatient Department of Oral Medicine in GITAM Dental College, Andhra Pradesh. Digital hand-wrist radiographs were obtained and assessed for SA using G-P atlas and the difference between estimated SA and chronological age (CA) were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. G-P method underestimated the SA by 0.23 ± 1.53 years for boys and overestimated SA by 0.02 ± 2 years in girls and mild underestimation was noted in the total sample of about 0.1 ± 1.78 years. Spearman rank test showed significant correlation between SA and CA (r = 0.86; P < 0.001). This study concluded that G-P standards were reliable in assessing age in South Indian Andhra children of age 9-20 years with unknown CA.

Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2016-06-01

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Precision and accuracy of age estimates obtained from anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines, and sagittal otoliths for known-age largemouth bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bowen, Bryant R.; Quist, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Sagittal otoliths are the preferred aging structure for Micropterus spp. (black basses) in North America because of the accurate and precise results produced. Typically, fisheries managers are hesitant to use lethal aging techniques (e.g., otoliths) to age rare species, trophy-size fish, or when sampling in small impoundments where populations are small. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the precision and accuracy of 2 non-lethal aging structures (i.e., anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines) in comparison to that of sagittal otoliths from known-age Micropterus salmoides (Largemouth Bass; n = 87) collected from the Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, GA. Sagittal otoliths exhibited the highest concordance with true ages of all structures evaluated (coefficient of variation = 1.2; percent agreement = 91.9). Similarly, the low coefficient of variation (0.0) and high between-reader agreement (100%) indicate that age estimates obtained from sagittal otoliths were the most precise. Relatively high agreement between readers for anal fin spines (84%) and dorsal fin spines (81%) suggested the structures were relatively precise. However, age estimates from anal fin spines and dorsal fin spines exhibited low concordance with true ages. Although use of sagittal otoliths is a lethal technique, this method will likely remain the standard for aging Largemouth Bass and other similar black bass species.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-01-01

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

Age-related changes in long-term average spectra of children's voices.

PubMed

Sergeant, Desmond; Welch, Graham Frederick

2008-11-01

This paper forms part of a larger study into the nature of singing development in children. The focus here is on an investigation of age-related changes in long-term average spectra (LTAS). Three hundred and twenty children in age groups 4-11 years learned a song. Each child was then digitally recorded singing alone. LTAS curves were calculated from the recordings of each voice and perceived age was estimated by a panel of independent judges. Progressive statistically significant changes were observed in the LTAS as a function of increasing age of the children. These took the form of increases in spectral energy in all frequencies below 5.75 kHz, with concomitant reductions of energy in frequency regions above this point. Increases with age were also found in overall intensity levels of the vocal products. Four experienced listeners audited the voice samples and made estimates of the children's ages. The level of accuracy of age-estimates was remarkably high for children in the youngest age groups, but was reduced with voice samples from older children. Maturation and developing competence of the vocal system, both in growth of lung capacity and at a laryngeal level, are implicated in the generation of age-related spectral changes. Perceived child singer age appears to be less closely related to spectral characteristics (as defined within LTAS) with increasing age of children.

The MiAge Calculator: a DNA methylation-based mitotic age calculator of human tissue types.

PubMed

Youn, Ahrim; Wang, Shuang

2018-01-01

Cell division is important in human aging and cancer. The estimation of the number of cell divisions (mitotic age) of a given tissue type in individuals is of great interest as it allows not only the study of biological aging (using a new molecular aging target) but also the stratification of prospective cancer risk. Here, we introduce the MiAge Calculator, a mitotic age calculator based on a novel statistical framework, the MiAge model. MiAge is designed to quantitatively estimate mitotic age (total number of lifetime cell divisions) of a tissue using the stochastic replication errors accumulated in the epigenetic inheritance process during cell divisions. With the MiAge model, the MiAge Calculator was built using the training data of DNA methylation measures of 4,020 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples from eight TCGA cancer types and was tested using the testing data of DNA methylation measures of 2,221 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples of five other TCGA cancer types. We showed that within each of the thirteen cancer types studied, the estimated mitotic age is universally accelerated in tumor tissues compared to adjacent normal tissues. Across the thirteen cancer types, we showed that worse cancer survivals are associated with more accelerated mitotic age in tumor tissues. Importantly, we demonstrated the utility of mitotic age by showing that the integration of mitotic age and clinical information leads to improved survival prediction in six out of the thirteen cancer types studied. The MiAge Calculator is available at http://www.columbia.edu/∼sw2206/softwares.htm .

Association between leukocyte telomere length and bone mineral density in women 25-93 years of age.

PubMed

Nielsen, Barbara Rubek; Linneberg, Allan; Bendix, Laila; Harboe, Maria; Christensen, Kaare; Schwarz, Peter

2015-06-01

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and bone mineral density (BMD) are associated with health and mortality. Because osteoporosis is an age-related condition and LTL is considered to be a biomarker of aging, we hypothesized that shorter LTL could predict lower BMD. The aim of our study was to assess whether there is an association of LTL with BMD and to determine whether this possible association is independent of age. The BMDs of the lumbar spine (LS), femoral neck (FN) and total hip (TH) were evaluated in 460 women using DXA. LTL was analyzed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The women completed a health and lifestyle questionnaire. The associations were estimated by regression models that considered age, body mass index (BMI), menopause, physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking habits. We found a statistically significant unadjusted association between LTL and age (estimate and 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.003 (-0.005; -0.002)); and between BMI adjusted age and logarithmic transformed BMD. Estimates and 95% CI were as follows: LS: -0.13 (-0.26; -0.01); right TH: -0.44 (-0.53; -0.34); left TH: -0.38 (-0.48; -0.28); right FN: -0.57 (-0.67; -0.46) and left FN: -0.51 (-0.62; -0.40). There were no statistically significant associations between BMD and LTL (both logarithmically transformed) with or without age adjustments. The age-adjusted estimates and CI were as follows: LS: -0.10 (-0.71; 0.52); right TH: -0.13 (-0.66; 0.41); left TH: -0.13 (-0.67; 0.42); right FN: -0.03 (-0.58; 0.52) and left FN: 0.09 (-0.47; 0.66). In conclusion, we found no statistically significant associations between BMD and LTL, although the estimates of the crude associations were all positive, indicating hypothesis consistency; that shorter LTL predict lower BMD values. This positive association was no longer apparent after adjusting for age. As expected, age was statistically significantly associated with both telomere length and BMI adjusted BMD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of three paediatric weight estimation methods in Singapore.

PubMed

Loo, Pei Ying; Chong, Shu-Ling; Lek, Ngee; Bautista, Dianne; Ng, Kee Chong

2013-04-01

Rapid paediatric weight estimation methods in the emergency setting have not been evaluated for South East Asian children. This study aims to assess the accuracy and precision of three such methods in Singapore children: Broselow-Luten (BL) tape, Advanced Paediatric Life Support (APLS) (estimated weight (kg) = 2 (age + 4)) and Luscombe (estimated weight (kg) = 3 (age) + 7) formulae. We recruited 875 patients aged 1-10 years in a Paediatric Emergency Department in Singapore over a 2-month period. For each patient, true weight and height were determined. True height was cross-referenced to the BL tape markings and used to derive estimated weight (virtual BL tape method), while patient's round-down age (in years) was used to derive estimated weights using APLS and Luscombe formulae, respectively. The percentage difference between the true and estimated weights was calculated. For each method, the bias and extent of agreement were quantified using Bland-Altman method (mean percentage difference (MPD) and 95% limits of agreement (LOA)). The proportion of weight estimates within 10% of true weight (p₁₀) was determined. The BL tape method marginally underestimated weights (MPD +0.6%; 95% LOA -26.8% to +28.1%; p₁₀ 58.9%). The APLS formula underestimated weights (MPD +7.6%; 95% LOA -26.5% to +41.7%; p₁₀ 45.7%). The Luscombe formula overestimated weights (MPD -7.4%; 95% LOA -51.0% to +36.2%; p₁₀ 37.7%). Of the three methods we evaluated, the BL tape method provided the most accurate and precise weight estimation for Singapore children. The APLS and Luscombe formulae underestimated and overestimated the children's weights, respectively, and were considerably less precise. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure.

PubMed

Martins, Rui; Oliveira, Paulo Eduardo; Schmitt, Aurore

2012-06-10

We discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, Great-Britain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recognition memory across the lifespan: the impact of word frequency and study-test interval on estimates of familiarity and recollection

PubMed Central

Meier, Beat; Rey-Mermet, Alodie; Rothen, Nicolas; Graf, Peter

2013-01-01

The goal of this study was to investigate recognition memory performance across the lifespan and to determine how estimates of recollection and familiarity contribute to performance. In each of three experiments, participants from five groups from 14 up to 85 years of age (children, young adults, middle-aged adults, young-old adults, and old-old adults) were presented with high- and low-frequency words in a study phase and were tested immediately afterwards and/or after a one day retention interval. The results showed that word frequency and retention interval affected recognition memory performance as well as estimates of recollection and familiarity. Across the lifespan, the trajectory of recognition memory followed an inverse u-shape function that was neither affected by word frequency nor by retention interval. The trajectory of estimates of recollection also followed an inverse u-shape function, and was especially pronounced for low-frequency words. In contrast, estimates of familiarity did not differ across the lifespan. The results indicate that age differences in recognition memory are mainly due to differences in processes related to recollection while the contribution of familiarity-based processes seems to be age-invariant. PMID:24198796

Measuring Animal Age with DNA Methylation: From Humans to Wild Animals.

PubMed

De Paoli-Iseppi, Ricardo; Deagle, Bruce E; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A; Dickinson, Joanne L; Jarman, Simon N

2017-01-01

DNA methylation (DNAm) is a key mechanism for regulating gene expression in animals and levels are known to change with age. Recent studies have used DNAm changes as a biomarker to estimate chronological age in humans and these techniques are now also being applied to domestic and wild animals. Animal age is widely used to track ongoing changes in ecosystems, however chronological age information is often unavailable for wild animals. An ability to estimate age would lead to improved monitoring of (i) population trends and status and (ii) demographic properties such as age structure and reproductive performance. Recent studies have revealed new examples of DNAm age association in several new species increasing the potential for developing DNAm age biomarkers for a broad range of wild animals. Emerging technologies for measuring DNAm will also enhance our ability to study age-related DNAm changes and to develop new molecular age biomarkers.

Estimating HIV Incidence Using a Cross-Sectional Survey: Comparison of Three Approaches in a Hyperendemic Setting, Ndhiwa Subcounty, Kenya, 2012.

PubMed

Blaizot, Stéphanie; Kim, Andrea A; Zeh, Clement; Riche, Benjamin; Maman, David; De Cock, Kevin M; Etard, Jean-François; Ecochard, René

2017-05-01

Estimating HIV incidence is critical for identifying groups at risk for HIV infection, planning and targeting interventions, and evaluating these interventions over time. The use of reliable estimation methods for HIV incidence is thus of high importance. The aim of this study was to compare methods for estimating HIV incidence in a population-based cross-sectional survey. The incidence estimation methods evaluated included assay-derived methods, a testing history-derived method, and a probability-based method applied to data from the Ndhiwa HIV Impact in Population Survey (NHIPS). Incidence rates by sex and age and cumulative incidence as a function of age were presented. HIV incidence ranged from 1.38 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-2.09] to 3.30 [95% CI 2.78-3.82] per 100 person-years overall; 0.59 [95% CI 0.00-1.34] to 2.89 [95% CI 0.86-6.45] in men; and 1.62 [95% CI 0.16-6.04] to 4.03 [95% CI 3.30-4.77] per 100 person-years in women. Women had higher incidence rates than men for all methods. Incidence rates were highest among women aged 15-24 and 25-34 years and highest among men aged 25-34 years. Comparison of different methods showed variations in incidence estimates, but they were in agreement to identify most-at-risk groups. The use and comparison of several distinct approaches for estimating incidence are important to provide the best-supported estimate of HIV incidence in the population.

[Estimation of the biological age in males of the taiga tick (Ixodes persulcatus: Ixodinae) by fat reserves in the midgut].

PubMed

Grigor'eva, L A

2012-01-01

Some criteria for the estimation of the biological and calendar age by the fat storage in midgut cells of Ixodes persulcatus males were established on the basis of examination of ticks from the laboratory culture.

Age estimation in 25-45 yrs. old females by physical and radiological methods

PubMed Central

Kasat, Vikrant; Karjodkar, FR; Vaz, Walter

2010-01-01

Aim: The purpose of this study was to estimate the age in living females in the later years (25 to 45 years) from general physical features and radiographic changes in the sternum and the mandible. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 64 females (32 subjects in each study and control group). All the subjects were physically examined for graying of scalp, body, pubic hair, and for wrinkling of skin of the forehead, temporal region, and below the eyes. A right lateral view of the chest was taken to determine fusion of the components of the sternum. Combined Hair Score, Combined Skin Score, and Combined Bone Fusion Score were calculated. An orthopantomogram of each patient was traced for lower jaw, mandibular canal and teeth, and D1, D2, A values were calculated. SPSS Software Version 10.1 was used for the execution of the regression command on the 32 cases of the control group, whose ages were known. Results: Combined skin score, mandible right D2, mandible right angle, and mandible left angle turned out significant in the prediction of age. Using the regression equation obtained, the age of the 32 subjects in the study group was estimated. In 9.3% of cases, the predicted ages exactly matched the actual ages. A variation of 1–4 years was seen in 75% of the cases. A variation of 6–7 years was seen in 15.6% of the cases. Conclusion: This study succeeded in most instances in predicting the ages of the study group and in arriving at a formula for age estimation between the ages of 25 and 45 years without using any invasive, costly, time - consuming, or troublesome method. PMID:21731347

Peritoneal Fluid Transport rather than Peritoneal Solute Transport Associates with Dialysis Vintage and Age of Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

PubMed

Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia

2016-01-01

During peritoneal dialysis (PD), the peritoneal membrane undergoes ageing processes that affect its function. Here we analyzed associations of patient age and dialysis vintage with parameters of peritoneal transport of fluid and solutes, directly measured and estimated based on the pore model, for individual patients. Thirty-three patients (15 females; age 60 (21-87) years; median time on PD 19 (3-100) months) underwent sequential peritoneal equilibration test. Dialysis vintage and patient age did not correlate. Estimation of parameters of the two-pore model of peritoneal transport was performed. The estimated fluid transport parameters, including hydraulic permeability (LpS), fraction of ultrasmall pores (α u), osmotic conductance for glucose (OCG), and peritoneal absorption, were generally independent of solute transport parameters (diffusive mass transport parameters). Fluid transport parameters correlated whereas transport parameters for small solutes and proteins did not correlate with dialysis vintage and patient age. Although LpS and OCG were lower for older patients and those with long dialysis vintage, αu was higher. Thus, fluid transport parameters--rather than solute transport parameters--are linked to dialysis vintage and patient age and should therefore be included when monitoring processes linked to ageing of the peritoneal membrane.

Assessing long-term QALYs gain from averting and reversing overweight and obesity in childhood.

PubMed

Techakehakij, Win

2016-10-01

Interventions to tackle childhood obesity have been devised in response to the rising prevalence of childhood obesity. However, efficiency of these interventions remains a concern. Cost-utility analysis, representing health benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), is a type of economic evaluation that has widely been recommended in assessing efficiency of health interventions. However, certain limitations in using QALYs remain specifically difficult in QALYs estimation. This study estimates the long-term QALYs gain from reversing childhood obesity in Thailand. An economic model was developed to estimate long-term QALYs of the youth aged 3-18 for the BMI status in childhood, which were categorized into three groups: normal weight, overweight, and obese. Long-term QALYs were estimated between ages 35 and 100, according to children's age, sex, and BMI status. Differences in QALYs between BMI status groups were calculated to represent the QALYs gain for youth from reversing obesity and overweight. The future outcomes were discounted at 3 % per annum in the base-case analysis; the discount rates of 0, 1.5, 3.5, and 5 % were also applied in the sensitivity analyses. QALYs gained from reversing childhood obesity increase with age, starting from 0.040 and 0.083 QALYs at age 3 to 0.590 and 0.553 QALYs at age 18 in boys and girls, respectively. Reversing overweight and obesity in girls produces more QALYs than in boys between ages 3 and 17. Efficiency is an important issue in allocating public healthcare resources to maximize social benefits. The results of this study facilitate long-term QALYs estimation with respect to BMI status in childhood, which could encourage more routine economic evaluation of child obesity interventions and maximize their health benefits.

Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods.

PubMed

Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

2015-01-01

Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation.

Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods

PubMed Central

Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

2015-01-01

Introduction: Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. Objectives: The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. Conclusion: The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation. PMID:25709325

An epigenetic aging clock for dogs and wolves.

PubMed

Thompson, Michael J; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Horvath, Steve; Pellegrini, Matteo

2017-03-28

Several articles describe highly accurate age estimation methods based on human DNA-methylation data. It is not yet known whether similar epigenetic aging clocks can be developed based on blood methylation data from canids. Using Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing, we assessed blood DNA-methylation data from 46 domesticated dogs ( Canis familiaris ) and 62 wild gray wolves ( C. lupus ). By regressing chronological dog age on the resulting CpGs, we defined highly accurate multivariate age estimators for dogs (based on 41 CpGs), wolves (67 CpGs), and both combined (115 CpGs). Age related DNA methylation changes in canids implicate similar gene ontology categories as those observed in humans suggesting an evolutionarily conserved mechanism underlying age-related DNA methylation in mammals.

An epigenetic aging clock for dogs and wolves

PubMed Central

Thompson, Michael J.; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Horvath, Steve; Pellegrini, Matteo

2017-01-01

Several articles describe highly accurate age estimation methods based on human DNA-methylation data. It is not yet known whether similar epigenetic aging clocks can be developed based on blood methylation data from canids. Using Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing, we assessed blood DNA-methylation data from 46 domesticated dogs (Canis familiaris) and 62 wild gray wolves (C. lupus). By regressing chronological dog age on the resulting CpGs, we defined highly accurate multivariate age estimators for dogs (based on 41 CpGs), wolves (67 CpGs), and both combined (115 CpGs). Age related DNA methylation changes in canids implicate similar gene ontology categories as those observed in humans suggesting an evolutionarily conserved mechanism underlying age-related DNA methylation in mammals. PMID:28373601

Complete workplace indoor smoking ban and smoking behavior among male workers and female nonsmoking workers' husbands: a pseudo cohort study of Japanese public workers.

PubMed

Tabuchi, Takahiro; Hoshino, Takahiro; Hama, Hitomi; Nakata-Yamada, Kayo; Ito, Yuri; Ioka, Akiko; Nakayama, Tomio; Miyashiro, Isao; Tsukuma, Hideaki

2014-01-01

A pseudo cohort study using national cross-sections (2001, 2004, 2007, and 2010) was conducted to examine differences in smoking prevalence under different smoking ban policies such as a complete workplace indoor smoking ban (early or recent implementation) and a partial smoking ban among male public workers and husbands of female nonsmoking public workers. The effectiveness of smoking bans was estimated by difference-in-differences (DID) with age group stratification. The results varied considerably by age and implementation period. Although DID estimates (positive value of DID estimate represents smoking cessation percentage) for both smoking bans on total male smoking were not significant, the over-40 age group indicated a significant DID estimate of 5.0 (95% CI: 0.2, 9.8) for the recent smoking ban. For female workers' husbands' smoking, the over-40 age group indicated positive, but not significant, DID estimates for the early and recent smoking bans of 7.2 (-4.7, 19.2) and 8.4 (-2.0, 18.7), respectively. A complete indoor workplace smoking ban, particularly one recently implemented among public office workers aged over 40, may reduce male workers' smoking and female workers' husbands' smoking compared with a partial smoking ban, but the conclusion remains tentative because of methodological weaknesses in the study.

Complete Workplace Indoor Smoking Ban and Smoking Behavior among Male Workers and Female Nonsmoking Workers' Husbands: A Pseudo Cohort Study of Japanese Public Workers

PubMed Central

Hoshino, Takahiro; Hama, Hitomi; Nakata-Yamada, Kayo; Ito, Yuri; Ioka, Akiko; Nakayama, Tomio; Miyashiro, Isao; Tsukuma, Hideaki

2014-01-01

A pseudo cohort study using national cross-sections (2001, 2004, 2007, and 2010) was conducted to examine differences in smoking prevalence under different smoking ban policies such as a complete workplace indoor smoking ban (early or recent implementation) and a partial smoking ban among male public workers and husbands of female nonsmoking public workers. The effectiveness of smoking bans was estimated by difference-in-differences (DID) with age group stratification. The results varied considerably by age and implementation period. Although DID estimates (positive value of DID estimate represents smoking cessation percentage) for both smoking bans on total male smoking were not significant, the over-40 age group indicated a significant DID estimate of 5.0 (95% CI: 0.2, 9.8) for the recent smoking ban. For female workers' husbands' smoking, the over-40 age group indicated positive, but not significant, DID estimates for the early and recent smoking bans of 7.2 (−4.7, 19.2) and 8.4 (−2.0, 18.7), respectively. A complete indoor workplace smoking ban, particularly one recently implemented among public office workers aged over 40, may reduce male workers' smoking and female workers' husbands' smoking compared with a partial smoking ban, but the conclusion remains tentative because of methodological weaknesses in the study. PMID:24783199

Joint-specific risk of impaired function in fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP).

PubMed

Pignolo, Robert J; Durbin-Johnson, Blythe P; Rocke, David M; Kaplan, Frederick S

2018-04-01

Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) causes progressive disability due to heterotopic ossification from episodic flare-ups. Using data from 500 FOP patients (representing 63% of all known patients world-wide), age- and joint-specific risks of new joint involvement were estimated using parametric and nonparametric statistical methods. Compared to data from a 1994 survey of 44 individuals with FOP, our current estimates of age- and joint-specific risks of new joint involvement are more accurate (narrower confidence limits), based on a wider range of ages, and have less bias due to its greater comprehensiveness (captures over three-fifths of the known FOP patients worldwide). For the neck, chest, abdomen, and upper back, the estimated hazard decreases over time. For the jaw, lower back, shoulder, elbow, wrist, fingers, hip, knee, ankle, and foot, the estimated hazard increases initially then either plateaus or decreases. At any given time and for any anatomic site, the data indicate which joints are at risk. This study of approximately 63% of the world's known population of FOP patients provides a refined estimate of risk for new involvement at any joint at any age, as well as the proportion of patients with uninvolved joints at any age. Importantly, these joint-specific survival curves can be used to facilitate clinical trial design and to determine if potential treatments can modify the predicted trajectory of progressive joint dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paleoglaciation of the Tibetan Plateau based on exposure ages and ELA depression estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyman, Jakob

2014-05-01

The Tibetan Plateau holds a major part of all glaciers outside the polar regions and an ample record of past glaciations. The glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau has attracted significant interest, with a large body of research investigating the extent, timing, and climatic implications of past glaciations. Here I present an extensive compilation of exposure ages and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates from glacial deposits across the Tibetan Plateau to address the timing and degree of past glaciations. I compiled Be-10 exposure age data for a total of 1877 samples and recalculated exposure ages using an updated (lower) global Be-10 production rate. All samples were organized in groups of individual glacial deposits where each deposit represents one glacial event enabling evaluation of the exposure age clustering. For each glacial deposit I estimated the ELA depression based on a simple toe to headwall ratio approach using Google Earth. To discriminate good (well-clustered) from poor (scattered) exposure age groups the glacial deposits were divided into three groups based on exposure age clustering. A major part of the glacial deposits have scattered exposure ages affected by prior or incomplete exposure, complicating exposure age interpretations. The well-clustered exposure age groups are primarily from mountain ranges along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau with a main peak in age between 10 and 30 ka, indicating glacial advances during the global last glacial maximum (LGM). A large number of exposure ages older than 30 ka indicates maximum glaciation predating the LGM, but the exposure age scatter generally prohibits accurate definition of the glacial chronology. The ELA depression estimates scatter significantly, but a major part is remarkably low. Average ELA depressions of 333 ± 191 m for the LGM and 494 ± 280 m for the pre-LGM exposure indicate restricted glacier expansion and limited glacial cooling.

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Faustini, Annunziata; Cascini, Silvia; Arcà, Massimo; Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Canova, Cristina; Galassi, Claudia; Migliore, Enrica; Minerba, Sante; Protti, Maria Angela; Romanelli, Anna; Tessari, Roberta; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

to estimate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by integrating various administrative health information systems. prevalent COPD cases were defined as those reported in the hospital discharge registry (HDR) and cause of mortality registry (CMR) with codes 490*, 491*, 492*, 494* and 496* of the International diseases classification 9th revision. Annual prevalence was estimated in 35+ year-old residents in six Italian areas ofb different sizes, in the period 2002-2004. We included cases observed in the previous four years who were alive at the beginning of each year. in 2003, age-standardized prevalence rates varied from 1.6% in Venice to 5% in Taranto. Prevalence was higher in males and increased with age. The highest rates were observed in central (Rome) and southern (Taranto) cities, especially in the 35-64 age group. HDR contributed 91% of cases. Health-tax exemption registry would increase the prevalence estimate by 0.2% if used as a third data source. with respect to the National Health Status survey, COPD prevalence is underestimated by 1%-3%; this can partly be due to the selection of severe and exacerbated COPD by the algorithm used. However, age, gender and geographical characteristics of prevalent cases were comparable to national estimates. Including cases observed in previous years (longitudinal estimates) increased the point estimate (yearly) of prevalence two or three times in each area.

Tritium as an indicator of ground-water age in Central Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradbury, Kenneth R.

1991-01-01

In regions where ground water is generally younger than about 30 years, developing the tritium input history of an area for comparison with the current tritium content of ground water allows quantitative estimates of minimum ground-water age. The tritium input history for central Wisconsin has been constructed using precipitation tritium measured at Madison, Wisconsin and elsewhere. Weighted tritium inputs to ground water reached a peak of over 2,000 TU in 1964, and have declined since that time to about 20-30 TU at present. In the Buena Vista basin in central Wisconsin, most ground-water samples contained elevated levels of tritium, and estimated minimum ground-water ages in the basin ranged from less than one year to over 33 years. Ground water in mapped recharge areas was generally younger than ground water in discharge areas, and estimated ground-water ages were consistent with flow system interpretations based on other data. Estimated minimum ground-water ages increased with depth in areas of downward ground-water movement. However, water recharging through thick moraine sediments was older than water in other recharge areas, reflecting slower infiltration through the sandy till of the moraine.

Evaluation of bursal depth as an indicator of age class of harlequin ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mather, D.D.; Esler, Daniel N.

1999-01-01

We contrasted the estimated age class of recaptured Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) (n = 255) based on bursal depth with expected age class based on bursal depth at first capture and time since first capture. Although neither estimated nor expected ages can be assumed to be correct, rates of discrepancies between the two for within-year recaptures indicate sampling error, while between-year recaptures test assumptions about rates of bursal involution. Within-year, between-year, and overall discrepancy rates were 10%, 24%, and 18%, respectively. Most (86%) between-year discrepancies occurred for birds expected to be after-third-year (ATY) but estimated to be third-year (TY). Of these ATY-TY discrepancies, 22 of 25 (88%) birds had bursal depths of 2 or 3 mm. Further, five of six between-year recaptures that were known to be ATY but estimated to be TY had 2 mm bursas. Reclassifying birds with 2 or 3 mm bursas as ATY resulted in reduction in between-year (24% to 10%) and overall (18% to 11%) discrepancy rates. We conclude that age determination of Harlequin Ducks based on bursal depth, particularly using our modified criteria, is a relatively consistent and reliable technique.

Dietary Protein Intake in Young Children in Selected Low-Income Countries Is Generally Adequate in Relation to Estimated Requirements for Healthy Children, Except When Complementary Food Intake Is Low.

PubMed

Arsenault, Joanne E; Brown, Kenneth H

2017-05-01

Background: Previous research indicates that young children in low-income countries (LICs) generally consume greater amounts of protein than published estimates of protein requirements, but this research did not account for protein quality based on the mix of amino acids and the digestibility of ingested protein. Objective: Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake by young children in LICs, accounting for protein quality. Methods: Seven data sets with information on dietary intake for children (6-35 mo of age) from 6 LICs (Peru, Guatemala, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Uganda, and Zambia) were reanalyzed to estimate protein and amino acid intake and assess adequacy. The protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score of each child's diet was calculated and multiplied by the original (crude) protein intake to obtain an estimate of available protein intake. Distributions of usual intake were obtained to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake for each cohort according to Estimated Average Requirements. Results: The prevalence of inadequate protein intake was highest in breastfeeding children aged 6-8 mo: 24% of Bangladeshi and 16% of Peruvian children. With the exception of Bangladesh, the prevalence of inadequate available protein intake decreased by age 9-12 mo and was very low in all sites (0-2%) after 12 mo of age. Inadequate protein intake in children <12 mo of age was due primarily to low energy intake from complementary foods, not inadequate protein density. Conclusions: Overall, most children consumed protein amounts greater than requirements, except for the younger breastfeeding children, who were consuming low amounts of complementary foods. These findings reinforce previous evidence that dietary protein is not generally limiting for children in LICs compared with estimated requirements for healthy children, even after accounting for protein quality. However, unmeasured effects of infection and intestinal dysfunction on the children's protein requirements could modify this conclusion.

Variance estimation for the Federal Waterfowl Harvest Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geissler, P.H.

1988-01-01

The Federal Waterfowl Harvest Surveys provide estimates of waterfowl harvest by species for flyways and states, harvests of most other migratory game bird species (by waterfowl hunters), crippling losses for ducks, geese, and coots, days hunted, and bag per hunter. The Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey separately estimates the harvest of ducks and geese using cluster samples of hunters who buy duck stamps at sample post offices. The Waterfowl Parts Collection estimates species, age, and sex ratios from parts solicited from successful hunters who responded to the Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey in previous years. These ratios are used to partition the duck and goose harvest into species, age, and sex specific harvest estimates. Annual estimates are correlated because successful hunters who respond to the Questionnaire Survey in one year may be asked to contribute to the Parts Collection for the next three years. Bootstrap variance estimates are used because covariances among years are difficult to estimate.

Estimation of premorbid general fluid intelligence using traditional Chinese reading performance in Taiwanese samples.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Jen; Ho, Meng-Yang; Chen, Kwan-Ju; Hsu, Chia-Fen; Ryu, Shan-Jin

2009-08-01

The aims of the present study were to (i) investigate if traditional Chinese word reading ability can be used for estimating premorbid general intelligence; and (ii) to provide multiple regression equations for estimating premorbid performance on Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices (RSPM), using age, years of education and Chinese Graded Word Reading Test (CGWRT) scores as predictor variables. Four hundred and twenty-six healthy volunteers (201 male, 225 female), aged 16-93 years (mean +/- SD, 41.92 +/- 18.19 years) undertook the tests individually under supervised conditions. Seventy percent of subjects were randomly allocated to the derivation group (n = 296), and the rest to the validation group (n = 130). RSPM score was positively correlated with CGWRT score and years of education. RSPM and CGWRT scores and years of education were also inversely correlated with age, but the declining trend for RSPM performance against age was steeper than that for CGWRT performance. Separate multiple regression equations were derived for estimating RSPM scores using different combinations of age, years of education, and CGWRT score for both groups. The multiple regression coefficient of each equation ranged from 0.71 to 0.80 with the standard error of estimate between 7 and 8 RSPM points. When fitting the data of one group to the equations derived from its counterpart group, the cross-validation multiple regression coefficients ranged from 0.71 to 0.79. There were no significant differences in the 'predicted-obtained' RSPM discrepancies between any equations. The regression equations derived in the present study may provide a basis for estimating premorbid RSPM performance.

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2010-01-07

In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.

The fish community of a small impoundment in upstate New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCoy, C. Mead; Madenjian, Charles P.; Adams, Jean V.; Harman, Willard N.

2001-01-01

Moe Pond is a dimictic impoundment with surface area of 15.6 ha, a mean depth of 1.8 m, and an unexploited fish community of only two species: brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus) and golden shiner (Notemigonus crysoleucas). The age-1 and older brown bullhead population was estimated to be 4,057 individuals, based on the Schnabel capture-recapture method of population estimation. Density and biomass were respectively estimated at 260 individuals/ha and 13 kg/ha. Annual survival rate of age-2 through age-5 brown bullheads was estimated at 48%. The golden shiner length-frequency distribution was unimodal with modal length of 80 mm and maximum total length of 115 m. The golden shiner population estimate was 7,154 individuals, based on seven beach seine haul replicate samples; the density and biomass were 686 shiners/ha and 5 kg/ha, respectively. This study provides an information baseline that may be useful in understanding food web interactions and whole-pond nutrient flux.

Age-dependence of the average and equivalent refractive indices of the crystalline lens

PubMed Central

Charman, W. Neil; Atchison, David A.

2013-01-01

Lens average and equivalent refractive indices are required for purposes such as lens thickness estimation and optical modeling. We modeled the refractive index gradient as a power function of the normalized distance from lens center. Average index along the lens axis was estimated by integration. Equivalent index was estimated by raytracing through a model eye to establish ocular refraction, and then backward raytracing to determine the constant refractive index yielding the same refraction. Assuming center and edge indices remained constant with age, at 1.415 and 1.37 respectively, average axial refractive index increased (1.408 to 1.411) and equivalent index decreased (1.425 to 1.420) with age increase from 20 to 70 years. These values agree well with experimental estimates based on different techniques, although the latter show considerable scatter. The simple model of index gradient gives reasonable estimates of average and equivalent lens indices, although refinements in modeling and measurements are required. PMID:24466474

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

PubMed

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

The impact of eliminating age inequalities in stage at diagnosis on breast cancer survival for older women.

PubMed

Rutherford, M J; Abel, G A; Greenberg, D C; Lambert, P C; Lyratzopoulos, G

2015-03-31

Older women with breast cancer have poorer relative survival outcomes, but whether achieving earlier stage at diagnosis would translate to substantial reductions in mortality is uncertain. We analysed data on East of England women with breast cancer (2006-2010) aged 70+ years. We estimated survival for different stage-deprivation-age group strata using both the observed and a hypothetical stage distribution (assuming that all women aged 75+ years acquired the stage distribution of those aged 70-74 years). We subsequently estimated deaths that could be postponed beyond 5 years from diagnosis if women aged 75+ years had the hypothetical stage distribution. We projected findings to the English population using appropriate age and socioeconomic group weights. For a typically sized annual cohort in the East of England, 27 deaths in women with breast cancer aged 75+ years can be postponed within 5 years from diagnosis if their stage distribution matched that of the women aged 70-74 years (4.8% of all 566 deaths within 5 years post diagnosis in this population). Under assumptions, we estimate that the respective number for England would be 280 deaths (5.0% of all deaths within 5 years post diagnosis in this population). The findings support ongoing development of targeted campaigns aimed at encouraging prompt presentation in older women.

Quantitative evidence of an intrinsic luminosity spread in the Orion nebula cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reggiani, M.; Robberto, M.; Da Rio, N.; Meyer, M. R.; Soderblom, D. R.; Ricci, L.

2011-10-01

Aims: We study the distribution of stellar ages in the Orion nebula cluster (ONC) using accurate HST photometry taken from HST Treasury Program observations of the ONC utilizing the cluster distance estimated by Menten and collaborators. We investigate whether there is an intrinsic age spread in the region and whether the age depends on the spatial distribution. Methods: We estimate the extinction and accretion luminosity towards each source by performing synthetic photometry on an empirical calibration of atmospheric models using the package Chorizos of Maiz-Apellaniz. The position of the sources in the HR-diagram is compared with different theoretical isochrones to estimate the mean cluster age and age dispersion. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, we quantify the amount of intrinsic age spread in the region, taking into account uncertainties in the distance, spectral type, extinction, unresolved binaries, accretion, and photometric variability. Results: According to the evolutionary models of Siess and collaborators, the mean age of the Cluster is 2.2 Myr with a scatter of few Myr. With Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the observed age spread is inconsistent with that of a coeval stellar population, but in agreement with a star formation activity between 1.5 and 3.5 Myr. We also observe some evidence that ages depends on the spatial distribution.

Evaluation of the robustness of estimating five components from a skin spectral image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaho, Rina; Hirose, Misa; Tsumura, Norimichi

2018-04-01

We evaluated the robustness of a method used to estimate five components (i.e., melanin, oxy-hemoglobin, deoxy-hemoglobin, shading, and surface reflectance) from the spectral reflectance of skin at five wavelengths against noise and a change in epidermis thickness. We also estimated the five components from recorded images of age spots and circles under the eyes using the method. We found that noise in the image must be no more 0.1% to accurately estimate the five components and that the thickness of the epidermis affects the estimation. We acquired the distribution of major causes for age spots and circles under the eyes by applying the method to recorded spectral images.

Development of modern human subadult age and sex estimation standards using multi-slice computed tomography images from medical examiner's offices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, Michala K.; Stull, Kyra E.; Garvin, Heather M.; Klales, Alexandra R.

2016-10-01

Forensic anthropologists are routinely asked to estimate a biological profile (i.e., age, sex, ancestry and stature) from a set of unidentified remains. In contrast to the abundance of collections and techniques associated with adult skeletons, there is a paucity of modern, documented subadult skeletal material, which limits the creation and validation of appropriate forensic standards. Many are forced to use antiquated methods derived from small sample sizes, which given documented secular changes in the growth and development of children, are not appropriate for application in the medico-legal setting. Therefore, the aim of this project is to use multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) data from a large, diverse sample of modern subadults to develop new methods to estimate subadult age and sex for practical forensic applications. The research sample will consist of over 1,500 full-body MSCT scans of modern subadult individuals (aged birth to 20 years) obtained from two U.S. medical examiner's offices. Statistical analysis of epiphyseal union scores, long bone osteometrics, and os coxae landmark data will be used to develop modern subadult age and sex estimation standards. This project will result in a database of information gathered from the MSCT scans, as well as the creation of modern, statistically rigorous standards for skeletal age and sex estimation in subadults. Furthermore, the research and methods developed in this project will be applicable to dry bone specimens, MSCT scans, and radiographic images, thus providing both tools and continued access to data for forensic practitioners in a variety of settings.

Alterations of functional connectivities from early to middle adulthood: Clues from multivariate pattern analysis of resting-state fMRI data.

PubMed

Tian, Lixia; Ma, Lin; Wang, Linlin

2016-04-01

In contrast to extended research interests in the maturation and aging of human brain, alterations of brain structure and function from early to middle adulthood have been much less studied. The aim of the present study was to investigate the extent and pattern of the alterations of functional interactions between brain regions from early to middle adulthood. We carried out the study by multivariate pattern analysis of resting-state fMRI (RS-fMRI) data of 63 adults aged 18 to 45 years. Specifically, using elastic net, we performed brain age estimation and age-group classification (young adults aged 18-28 years vs. middle-aged adults aged 35-45 years) based on the resting-state functional connectivities (RSFCs) between 160 regions of interest (ROIs) evaluated on the RS-fMRI data of each subject. The results indicate that the estimated brain ages were significantly correlated with the chronological age (R=0.78, MAE=4.81), and a classification rate of 94.44% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.99 were obtained when classifying the young and middle-aged adults. These results provide strong evidence that functional interactions between brain regions undergo notable alterations from early to middle adulthood. By analyzing the RSFCs that contribute to brain age estimation/age-group classification, we found that a majority of the RSFCs were inter-network, and we speculate that inter-network RSFCs might mature late but age early as compared to intra-network ones. In addition, the strengthening/weakening of the RSFCs associated with the left/right hemispheric ROIs, the weakening of cortico-cerebellar RSFCs and the strengthening of the RSFCs between the default mode network and other networks contributed much to both brain age estimation and age-group classification. All these alterations might reflect that aging of brain function is already in progress in middle adulthood. Overall, the present study indicated that the RSFCs undergo notable alterations from early to middle adulthood and highlighted the necessity of careful considerations of possible influences of these alterations in related studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Official statistics and claims data records indicate non-response and recall bias within survey-based estimates of health care utilization in the older population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The validity of survey-based health care utilization estimates in the older population has been poorly researched. Owing to data protection legislation and a great number of different health care insurance providers, the assessment of recall and non-response bias is challenging to impossible in many countries. The objective of our study was to compare estimates from a population-based study in older German adults with external secondary data. Methods We used data from the German KORA-Age study, which included 4,127 people aged 65–94 years. Self-report questions covered the utilization of long-term care services, inpatient services, outpatient services, and pharmaceuticals. We calculated age- and sex-standardized mean utilization rates in each domain and compared them with the corresponding estimates derived from official statistics and independent statutory health insurance data. Results The KORA-Age study underestimated the use of long-term care services (−52%), in-hospital days (−21%) and physician visits (−70%). In contrast, the assessment of drug consumption by postal self-report questionnaires yielded similar estimates to the analysis of insurance claims data (−9%). Conclusion Survey estimates based on self-report tend to underestimate true health care utilization in the older population. Direct validation studies are needed to disentangle the impact of recall and non-response bias. PMID:23286781

Estimating age-specific reproductive numbers-A comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moser, Carlee B; White, Laura F

2016-01-01

Large outbreaks, such as those caused by influenza, put a strain on resources necessary for their control. In particular, children have been shown to play a key role in influenza transmission during recent outbreaks, and targeted interventions, such as school closures, could positively impact the course of emerging epidemics. As an outbreak is unfolding, it is important to be able to estimate reproductive numbers that incorporate this heterogeneity and to use surveillance data that is routinely collected to more effectively target interventions and obtain an accurate understanding of transmission dynamics. There are a growing number of methods that estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers with limited data that build on methods assuming a homogenously mixing population. In this article, we introduce a new approach that is flexible and improves on many aspects of existing methods. We apply this method to influenza data from two outbreaks, the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in South Africa and Japan, to estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers and compare it to three other methods that also use existing data from social mixing surveys to quantify contact rates among different age groups. In this exercise, all estimates of the reproductive numbers for children exceeded the critical threshold of one and in most cases exceeded those of adults. We introduce a flexible new method to estimate reproductive numbers that describe heterogeneity in the population.

Sudden cardiac death rates in an Australian population: a data linkage study.

PubMed

Feng, Jia-Li; Hickling, Siobhan; Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Semsarian, Christopher; Ingles, Jodie; Briffa, Tom G

2015-11-01

The aim of the present study was to develop criteria to identify sudden cardiac death (SCD) and estimate population rates of SCD using administrative mortality and hospital morbidity records in Western Australia. Four criteria were developed using place, death within 24 h, principal and secondary diagnoses, underlying and associated cause of death, and/or occurrence of a post mortem to identify SCD. Average crude, age-standardised and age-specific rates of SCD were estimated using population person-linked administrative data. In all, 9567 probable SCDs were identified between 1997 and 2010, with one-third aged ≥ 35 years having no prior admission for cardiovascular disease. SCD was more frequent in men (62.1%). The estimated average annual crude SCD rate for the period was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years with an average annual age-standardised rate of 37.8 per 100 000 person-years. Age-specific standardised rates were 1.1 per 100 000 person-years and 70.7 per 100 000 person-years in people aged 1-34 and ≥ 35 years, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was recorded as the underlying cause of death in approximately 80% of patients aged ≥ 35 years, followed by valvular heart disease and heart failure. IHD was the most common cause of death in those aged 1-34 years, followed by unspecified cardiomyopathy and dysrhythmias. Administrative morbidity and mortality data can be used to estimate rates of SCD and therefore provide a suitable methodology for monitoring SCD over time. The findings highlight the magnitude of SCD and its potential for public health prevention.

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers

PubMed Central

Ryckman, Kelli K.; Berberich, Stanton L.; Dagle, John M.

2016-01-01

Background Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. Objective We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. Study Design This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R2) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. Results The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895−0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of infants born small-for-gestational age, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the newborn metabolic model and the recorded gestational age was 1.5 weeks. In contrast, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the model including only newborn weight and the recorded gestational age was 1.9 weeks. The estimated prevalence of preterm birth <37 weeks’ gestation in the subset of infants that were small for gestational age was 18.79% when the model including only newborn weight was used, over twice that of the actual prevalence of 9.20%. The newborn metabolic model underestimated the preterm birth prevalence at 6.94% but was closer to the prevalence based on the recorded gestational age than the model including only newborn weight. Conclusions The newborn metabolic profile, as derived from routine newborn screening markers, is an accurate method for estimating gestational age. In small-for-gestational age neonates, the newborn metabolic model predicts gestational age to a better degree than newborn weight alone. Newborn metabolic screening is a potentially effective method for population surveillance of preterm birth in the absence of prenatal ultrasound measurements or newborn weight. PMID:26645954

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers.

PubMed

Ryckman, Kelli K; Berberich, Stanton L; Dagle, John M

2016-04-01

Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895-0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of infants born small-for-gestational age, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the newborn metabolic model and the recorded gestational age was 1.5 weeks. In contrast, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the model including only newborn weight and the recorded gestational age was 1.9 weeks. The estimated prevalence of preterm birth <37 weeks' gestation in the subset of infants that were small for gestational age was 18.79% when the model including only newborn weight was used, over twice that of the actual prevalence of 9.20%. The newborn metabolic model underestimated the preterm birth prevalence at 6.94% but was closer to the prevalence based on the recorded gestational age than the model including only newborn weight. The newborn metabolic profile, as derived from routine newborn screening markers, is an accurate method for estimating gestational age. In small-for-gestational age neonates, the newborn metabolic model predicts gestational age to a better degree than newborn weight alone. Newborn metabolic screening is a potentially effective method for population surveillance of preterm birth in the absence of prenatal ultrasound measurements or newborn weight. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Age of the Surface of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, K. J.; McKinnon, William B.; Young, Richard E. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Impact craters on Venus appear to be uniformly and randomly scattered over a once, but no longer, geologically active planet. To first approximation, the planet shows a single surface of a single age. Here we use Monte Carlo cratering simulations to estimate the age of the surface of Venus. The simulations are based on the present populations of Earth-approaching asteroids, Jupiter-family, Halley-family, and long period comets; they use standard Schmidt-Housen crater scalings in the gravity regime; and they describe interaction with the atmosphere using a semi-analytic 'pancake' model that is calibrated to detailed numerical simulations of impactors striking Venus. The lunar and terrestrial cratering records are also simulated. Both of these records suffer from poor statistics. The Moon has few young large craters and fewer still whose ages are known, and the record is biased because small craters tend to look old and large craters tend to look young. The craters of the Earth provide the only reliable ages, but these craters are few, eroded, of uncertain diameter, and statistically incomplete. Together the three cratering records can be inverted to constrain the flux of impacting bodies, crater diameters given impact parameters, and the calibration of atmospheric interactions. The surface age of Venus that results is relatively young. Alternatively, we can use our best estimates for these three input parameters to derive a best estimate for the age of the surface of Venus. Our tentative conclusions are that comets are unimportant, that the lunar and terrestrial crater records are both subject to strong biases, that there is no strong evidence for an increasing cratering flux in recent years, and that that the nominal age of the surface of Venus is about 600 Ma, although the uncertainty is about a factor of two. The chief difference between our estimate and earlier, somewhat younger estimates is that we find that the venusian atmosphere is less permeable to impacting bodies than supposed by earlier studies. An older surface increases the likelihood that Venus is dead.

Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

2018-05-01

Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060

PubMed Central

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H.

2013-01-01

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates. PMID:23851976

Scoping the impact of changes in population age-structure on the future burden of foodborne disease in the Netherlands, 2020-2060.

PubMed

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H

2013-07-11

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.

Age estimation using pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary canines-A digital image analysis.

PubMed

Juneja, Manjushree; Devi, Yashoda B K; Rakesh, N; Juneja, Saurabh

2014-09-01

Determination of age of a subject is one of the most important aspects of medico-legal cases and anthropological research. Radiographs can be used to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition which is depicted by reduction in the pulp area. In this study, 200 patients of Karnataka aged between 18-72 years were selected for the study. Panoramic radiographs were made and indirectly digitized. Radiographic images of maxillary canines (RIC) were processed using a computer-aided drafting program (ImageJ). The variables pulp/root length (p), pulp/tooth length (r), pulp/root width at enamel-cementum junction (ECJ) level (a), pulp/root width at mid-root level (c), pulp/root width at midpoint level between ECJ level and mid-root level (b) and pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) were recorded. All the morphological variables including gender were statistically analyzed to derive regression equation for estimation of age. It was observed that 2 variables 'AR' and 'b' contributed significantly to the fit and were included in the regression model, yielding the formula: Age = 87.305-480.455(AR)+48.108(b). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation with selected variables explained 96% of total variance with the median of the residuals of 0.1614 years and standard error of estimate of 3.0186 years. There is significant correlation between age and morphological variables 'AR' and 'b' and the derived population specific regression equation can be potentially used for estimation of chronological age of individuals of Karnataka origin.

Modulating peripersonal and extrapersonal reach space via tool use: a comparison between 6- to 12-year-olds and young adults.

PubMed

Caçola, Priscila; Gabbard, Carl

2012-04-01

This study examined age-related characteristics associated with tool use in the perception and modulation of peripersonal and extrapersonal space. Seventy-six (76) children representing age groups 7-, 9-, 11 years and 36 adults were presented with two experiments using an estimation of reach paradigm involving arm and tool conditions and a switch-block of the opposite condition. Experiment 1 tested Arm and Tool (20 cm length) estimation and found a significant effect for Age, Space, and an Age × Space interaction (ps < 0.05). Both children and adults were less accurate in extrapersonal space, indicating an overestimation bias. Interestingly, the adjustment period during the switch-block condition was immediate and similar across age. Experiment 2 was similar to Experiment 1 with the exception of using a 40-cm-length tool. Results also revealed an age effect and a difference in Space (ps < 0.05), however, participants underestimated. Speculatively, participants were less confident when presented with a longer tool, even though the adjustment period with both tool lengths was similar. Considered together, these results hint that: (1) children as young as 6 years of age are capable of being as accurate when estimating reach with a tool as they are with their arm, (2) the adjustment period associated with extending and retracting spaces is immediate rather than gradual, and (3) tool length influences estimations of reach.

Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.

1999-01-01

The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

Growth characteristics and Otolith analysis on Age-0 American Shad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauter, Sally T.; Wetzel, Lisa A.

2011-01-01

Otolith microstructure analysis provides useful information on the growth history of fish (Campana and Jones 1992, Bang and Gronkjaer 2005). Microstructure analysis can be used to construct the size-at-age growth trajectory of fish, determine daily growth rates, and estimate hatch date and other ecologically important life history events (Campana and Jones 1992, Tonkin et al. 2008). This kind of information can be incorporated into bioenergetics modeling, providing necessary data for estimating prey consumption, and guiding the development of empirically-based modeling scenarios for hypothesis testing. For example, age-0 American shad co-occur with emigrating juvenile fall Chinook salmon originating from Hanford Reach and the Snake River in the lower Columbia River reservoirs during the summer and early fall. The diet of age-0 American shad appears to overlap with that of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Chapter 1, this report), but juvenile fall Chinook salmon are also known to feed on age-0 American shad in the reservoirs (USGS unpublished data). Abundant, energy-dense age-0 American shad may provide juvenile fall Chinook salmon opportunities for rapid growth during the time period when large numbers of age-0 American shad are available. Otolith analysis of hatch dates and the growth curve of age-0 American shad could be used to identify when eggs, larvae, and juveniles of specific size classes are temporally available as food for fall Chinook salmon in the lower Columbia River reservoirs. This kind of temporally and spatially explicit life history information is important to include in bioenergetics modeling scenarios. Quantitative estimates of prey consumption could be used with spatially-explicit estimates of prey abundance to construct a quantitative assessment of the age-0 American shad impact on a reservoir food web.

An enhanced computational method for age-at-death estimation based on the pubic symphysis using 3D laser scans and thin plate splines.

PubMed

Stoyanova, Detelina; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B; Slice, Dennis E

2015-11-01

The pubic symphysis is frequently used to estimate age-at-death from the adult skeleton. Assessment methods require the visual comparison of the bone morphology against age-informative characteristics that represent a series of phases. Age-at-death is then estimated from the age-range previously associated with the chosen phase. While easily executed, the "morphoscopic" process of feature-scoring and bone-to-phase-matching is known to be subjective. Studies of method and practitioner error demonstrate a need for alternative tools to quantify age-progressive change in the pubic symphysis. This article proposes a more objective, quantitative method that analyzes three-dimensional (3D) surface scans of the pubic symphysis using a thin plate spline algorithm (TPS). This algorithm models the bending of a flat plane to approximately match the surface of the bone and minimizes the bending energy required for this transformation. Known age-at-death and bending energy were used to construct a linear model to predict age from observed bending energy. This approach is tested with scans from 44 documented white male skeletons and 12 casts. The results of the surface analysis show a significant association (regression p-value = 0.0002 and coefficient of determination = 0.2270) between the minimum bending energy and age-at-death, with a root mean square error of ≈19 years. This TPS method yields estimates comparable to established methods but offers a fully integrated, objective and quantitative framework of analysis and has potential for use in archaeological and forensic casework. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

PubMed

Livingstone, Shona J; Levin, Daniel; Looker, Helen C; Lindsay, Robert S; Wild, Sarah H; Joss, Nicola; Leese, Graham; Leslie, Peter; McCrimmon, Rory J; Metcalfe, Wendy; McKnight, John A; Morris, Andrew D; Pearson, Donald W M; Petrie, John R; Philip, Sam; Sattar, Naveed A; Traynor, Jamie P; Colhoun, Helen M

2015-01-06

Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths). Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women). Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on data from 2008 through 2010 indicated an estimated loss of life expectancy at age 20 years of approximately 11 years for men and 13 years for women compared with the general population without type 1 diabetes.

Estimated Life Expectancy in a Scottish Cohort With Type 1 Diabetes, 2008-2010

PubMed Central

Livingstone, Shona J.; Levin, Daniel; Looker, Helen C.; Lindsay, Robert S.; Wild, Sarah H.; Joss, Nicola; Leese, Graham; Leslie, Peter; McCrimmon, Rory J.; Metcalfe, Wendy; McKnight, John A.; Morris, Andrew D.; Pearson, Donald W. M.; Petrie, John R.; Philip, Sam; Sattar, Naveed A.; Traynor, Jamie P.; Colhoun, Helen M.

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. OBJECTIVE To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24 691 contributing 67 712 person-years and 1043 deaths). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. RESULTS Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on data from 2008 through 2010 indicated an estimated loss of life expectancy at age 20 years of approximately 11 years for men and 13 years for women compared with the general population without type 1 diabetes. PMID:25562264

[Estimation of the biological age in taiga tick females (Ixodes persulcatus:Ixodidae) by the fat reserves in organism].

PubMed

Balashov, Iu S; Grigor'eva, L A

2010-01-01

The method of estimation of the biological age in non-feeding tick females by the level of adipose inclusions in the cells of the midgut and fat body is developed. In order to estimate the fat reserves in non-feeding females, alive ticks were dissected and fragments of their internal were vitally stained with the pregnant solution of sudan III in 70 % ethanol. Three age-specific groups were established: I, young females whose intestines and fat body were filled with fat inclusions; II, mature females whose fat reserves were partially expended; III, old females having isolated fat inclusions in their midgut and fat body.

Nuclear constraints on the age of the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schramm, D. N.

1982-01-01

A review is made of how one can use nuclear physics to put rather stringent limits on the age of the universe and thus the cosmic distance scale. The age can be estimated to a fair degree of accuracy. No single measurement of the time since the Big Bang gives a specific, unambiguous age. There are several methods that together fix the age with surprising precision. In particular, there are three totally independent techniques for estimating an age and a fourth technique which involves finding consistency of the other three in the framework of the standard Big Bang cosmological model. The three independent methods are: cosmological dynamics, the age of the oldest stars, and radioactive dating. This paper concentrates on the third of the three methods, and the consistency technique.

Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia.

PubMed

Lydeamore, M J; Campbell, P T; Cuningham, W; Andrews, R M; Kearns, T; Clucas, D; Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay, R; Carapetis, J; Tong, S Y C; McCaw, J M; McVernon, J

2018-05-08

Prevalence of skin sores and scabies in remote Australian Aboriginal communities remains unacceptably high, with Group A Streptococcus (GAS) the dominant pathogen. We aim to better understand the drivers of GAS transmission using mathematical models. To estimate the force of infection, we quantified the age of first skin sores and scabies infection by pooling historical data from three studies conducted across five remote Aboriginal communities for children born between 2001 and 2005. We estimated the age of the first infection using the Kaplan-Meier estimator; parametric exponential mixture model; and Cox proportional hazards. For skin sores, the mean age of the first infection was approximately 10 months and the median was 7 months, with some heterogeneity in median observed by the community. For scabies, the mean age of the first infection was approximately 9 months and the median was 8 months, with significant heterogeneity by the community and an enhanced risk for children born between October and December. The young age of the first infection with skin sores and scabies reflects the high disease burden in these communities.

Improving Accuracy of Influenza-Associated Hospitalization Rate Estimates

PubMed Central

Reed, Carrie; Kirley, Pam Daily; Aragon, Deborah; Meek, James; Farley, Monica M.; Ryan, Patricia; Collins, Jim; Lynfield, Ruth; Baumbach, Joan; Zansky, Shelley; Bennett, Nancy M.; Fowler, Brian; Thomas, Ann; Lindegren, Mary L.; Atkinson, Annette; Finelli, Lyn; Chaves, Sandra S.

2015-01-01

Diagnostic test sensitivity affects rate estimates for laboratory-confirmed influenza–associated hospitalizations. We used data from FluSurv-NET, a national population-based surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, to capture diagnostic test type by patient age and influenza season. We calculated observed rates by age group and adjusted rates by test sensitivity. Test sensitivity was lowest in adults >65 years of age. For all ages, reverse transcription PCR was the most sensitive test, and use increased from <10% during 2003–2008 to ≈70% during 2009–2013. Observed hospitalization rates per 100,000 persons varied by season: 7.3–50.5 for children <18 years of age, 3.0–30.3 for adults 18–64 years, and 13.6–181.8 for adults >65 years. After 2009, hospitalization rates adjusted by test sensitivity were ≈15% higher for children <18 years, ≈20% higher for adults 18–64 years, and ≈55% for adults >65 years of age. Test sensitivity adjustments improve the accuracy of hospitalization rate estimates. PMID:26292017

A review on lithium-ion battery ageing mechanisms and estimations for automotive applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barré, Anthony; Deguilhem, Benjamin; Grolleau, Sébastien; Gérard, Mathias; Suard, Frédéric; Riu, Delphine

2013-11-01

Lithium-ion batteries have become the focus of research interest, thanks to their numerous benefits for vehicle applications. One main limitation of these technologies resides in the battery ageing. The effects of battery ageing limit its performance and occur throughout their whole life, whether the battery is used or not, which is a major drawback on real usage. Furthermore, degradations take place in every condition, but in different proportions as usage and external conditions interact to provoke degradations. The ageing phenomena are highly complicated to characterize due to the factors cross-dependence. This paper reviews various aspects of recent research and developments, from different fields, on lithium-ion battery ageing mechanisms and estimations. In this paper is presented a summary of techniques, models and algorithms used for battery ageing estimation (SOH, RUL), going from a detailed electrochemical approach to statistical methods based on data. In order to present the accuracy of currently used methods, their respective characteristics are discussed. Remaining challenges are deeply detailed, along with a discussion about the ideal method resulting from existing methods.

Quantitative analysis of production traits in saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus): II. age at slaughter.

PubMed

Isberg, S R; Thomson, P C; Nicholas, F W; Barker, S G; Moran, C

2005-12-01

Crocodile morphometric (head, snout-vent and total length) measurements were recorded at three stages during the production chain: hatching, inventory [average age (+/-SE) is 265.1 +/- 0.4 days] and slaughter (average age is 1037.8 +/- 0.4 days). Crocodile skins are used for the manufacture of exclusive leather products, with the most common-sized skin sold having 35-45 cm in belly width. One of the breeding objectives for inclusion into a multitrait genetic improvement programme for saltwater crocodiles is the time taken for a juvenile to reach this size or age at slaughter. A multivariate restricted maximum likelihood analysis provided (co)variance components for estimating the first published genetic parameter estimates for these traits. Heritability (+/-SE) estimates for the traits hatchling snout-vent length, inventory head length and age at slaughter were 0.60 (0.15), 0.59 (0.12) and 0.40 (0.10) respectively. There were strong negative genetic (-0.81 +/- 0.08) and phenotypic (-0.82 +/- 0.02) correlations between age at slaughter and inventory head length.

An evidence synthesis approach to estimating the incidence of seasonal influenza in the Netherlands.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; Presanis, Anne M; De Angelis, Daniela; van der Hoek, Wim; Hooiveld, Mariette; Donker, Gé; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E

2014-01-01

To estimate, using Bayesian evidence synthesis, the age-group-specific annual incidence of symptomatic infection with seasonal influenza in the Netherlands over the period 2005-2007. The Netherlands population and age group distribution for 2006 defined the base population. The number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases was estimated from sentinel surveillance data and adjusted for underascertainment using the estimated proportion of ILI cases that do not consult a general practitioner. The estimated number of symptomatic influenza (SI) cases was based on indirect evidence from the surveillance of ILI cases and the proportions of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the 2004/5, 2005/6 and 2006/7 respiratory years. In scenario analysis, the number of SI cases prevented by increasing vaccination uptake within the 65 +  age group was estimated. The overall symptomatic infection attack rate (SIAR) over the period 2005-2007 was estimated at 2·5% (95% credible interval [CI]: 2·1-3·2%); 410 200 SI cases (95% CI: 338 500-518 600) were estimated to occur annually. Age-group-specific SIARs were estimated for <5 years at 4·9% (2·1-13·7%), for 5-14 years at 3·0% (2·0-4·7%), for 15-44 years at 2·6% (2·1-3·2%), for 45-64 years at 1·9% (1·4-2·5%) and for 65 +  years at 1·7% (1·0-3·0%). Under assumed vaccination uptake increases of 5% and 15%, 1970 and 5310 SI cases would be averted. By synthesising the available information on seasonal influenza and ILI from diverse sources, the annual extent of symptomatic infection can be derived. These estimates are useful for assessing the burden of seasonal influenza and for guiding vaccination policy. © 2013 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biomass accumulation rates of Amazonian secondary forest and biomass of old-growth forests from Landsat time series and the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System

Treesearch

E. H. Helmer; M. A. Lefsky; D. A. Roberts

2009-01-01

We estimate the age of humid lowland tropical forests in Rondônia, Brazil, from a somewhat densely spaced time series of Landsat images (1975–2003) with an automated procedure, the Threshold Age Mapping Algorithm (TAMA), first described here. We then estimate a landscape-level rate of aboveground woody biomass accumulation of secondary forest by combining forest age...

[Prevalence of malnutrition in Spanish schoolchildren].

PubMed

Pérez-Ríos, Mónica; Santiago-Pérez, María I; Leis, Rosaura; Malvar, Alberto; Suanzes, Jorge; Hervada, Xurxo

2017-11-01

The term malnutrition includes malnutrition due to excess or obesity, underweight as well as stunted growth. Its prevalence in a population can be estimated using anthropometric variables. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of malnutrition in Galician schoolchildren aged 6 to 15years in the school year 2013-2014. A cross-sectional study was conducted on a representative sample by gender and age of the Galician population of 6 to 15years old. The prevalence of obesity, underweight, and short stature was estimated by age and gender using the reference standards proposed by the World Health Organisation. Of the total of 7,438 schoolchildren weighed and measured, 16.4% had malnutrition. The prevalence of obesity was 14.8%, underweight was 0.7%, and short stature for age was estimated at 1%. Obesity was more prevalent among boys. As regards underweight and short stature, when there were differences, prevalence was higher among girls. In Galicia, 16 out of every 100 schoolchildren aged 6 to 15years had malnutrition, with that due to excess or obesity being the most frequent. Prevalence of underweight and short stature did not exceed 1%. This data shows that primary prevention measures should be promoted at an early age to reduce malnutrition due to excess or adiposity, in particular. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Estimating the Risk of Parvovirus B19 Infection in Blood Donors and Pregnant Women in Japan

PubMed Central

Nabae, Koji; Satoh, Hiroshi; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Tanaka-Taya, Keiko; Okabe, Nobuhiko; Oishi, Kazunori; Matsumoto, Kunichika; Hasegawa, Tomonori

2014-01-01

Background Seroepidemiological study of parvovirus B19 has not taken place for some 20 years in Japan. To estimate the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in Japan among blood donors and pregnant women in this century, a seroepidemiological survey and statistical modeling of the force of infection were conducted. Methodology/Principal Findings The time- and age-specific seroprevalence data were suggestive of strong age-dependency in the risk of infection. Employing a piecewise constant model, the highest forces of infection of 0.05 and 0.12 per year were observed among those aged 0–4 and 5–9 years, respectively, while estimates among older individuals were less than 0.01 per year. Analyzing the antigen detection data among blood donors, the age-specific proportion positive was highest among those aged 30–39 years, agreeing with the presence of dip in seroprevalence in this age-group. Among pregnant women, up to 107 fetal deaths and 21 hydrops fetalis were estimated to have occurred annually across Japan. Conclusions Seroepidemiological profiles of PVB19 infection in Japan was characterized with particular emphasis on the risk of infection in blood donors and the burden of infection among pregnant women. When a vaccine becomes available in the future, a similar seroepidemiological study is expected to play a key role in planning the appropriate immunization policy. PMID:24658180

Fitness adjusted racial disparities in central adiposity among women in the USA using quantile regression.

PubMed

McDonald, S; Ortaglia, A; Supino, C; Kacka, M; Clenin, M; Bottai, M

2017-06-01

This study comprehensively explores racial/ethnic disparities in waist circumference (WC) after adjusting for cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), among both adult and adolescent women, across WC percentiles. Analysis was conducted using data from the 1999 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Female participants ( n  = 3,977) aged 12-49 years with complete data on CRF, height, weight and WC were included. Quantile regression models, stratified by age groups (12-15, 16-19 and 20-49 years), were used to assess the association between WC and race/ethnicity adjusting for CRF, height and age across WC percentiles (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th and 95th). For non-Hispanic (NH) Black, in both the 16-19 and 20-49 years age groups, estimated WC was significantly greater than for NH White across percentiles above the median with estimates ranging from 5.2 to 11.5 cm. For Mexican Americans, in all age groups, estimated WC tended to be significantly greater than for NH White particularly for middle percentiles (50th and 75th) with point estimates ranging from 1.9 to 8.4 cm. Significant disparities in WC between NH Black and Mexican women, as compared to NH White, remain even after adjustment for CRF. The magnitude of the disparities associated with race/ethnicity differs across WC percentiles and age groups.

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations.

PubMed

Mazur, D P

1976-02-01

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.

Updating the planetary time scale: focus on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Quantin-Nataf, Cathy

2013-01-01

Formal stratigraphic systems have been developed for the surface materials of the Moon, Mars, Mercury, and the Galilean satellite Ganymede. These systems are based on geologic mapping, which establishes relative ages of surfaces delineated by superposition, morphology, impact crater densities, and other relations and features. Referent units selected from the mapping determine time-stratigraphic bases and/or representative materials characteristic of events and periods for definition of chronologic units. Absolute ages of these units in some cases can be estimated using crater size-frequency data. For the Moon, the chronologic units and cratering record are calibrated by radiometric ages measured from samples collected from the lunar surface. Model ages for other cratered planetary surfaces are constructed primarily by estimating cratering rates relative to that of the Moon. Other cratered bodies with estimated surface ages include Venus and the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. New global geologic mapping and crater dating studies of Mars are resulting in more accurate and detailed reconstructions of its geologic history.

Executive functioning and processing speed in age-related differences in time estimation: a comparison of young, old, and very old adults.

PubMed

Baudouin, Alexia; Isingrini, Michel; Vanneste, Sandrine

2018-01-25

Age-related differences in time estimation were examined by comparing the temporal performance of young, young-old, and old-old adults, in relation to two major theories of cognitive aging: executive decline and cognitive slowing. We tested the hypothesis that processing speed and executive function are differentially involved in timing depending on the temporal task used. We also tested the assumption of greater age-related effects in time estimation in old-old participants. Participants performed two standard temporal tasks: duration production and duration reproduction. They also completed tests measuring executive function and processing speed. Findings supported the view that executive function is the best mediator of reproduction performance and inversely that processing speed is the best mediator of production performance. They also showed that young-old participants provide relatively accurate temporal judgments compared to old-old participants. These findings are discussed in terms of compensation mechanisms in aging.

Conditional survival of all primary brain tumor patients by age, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Berbaum, Michael L; Davis, Faith G

2011-01-01

Survival statistics commonly reflect survival from the time of diagnosis but do not take into account survival already achieved after a diagnosis. The objective of this study was to provide conditional survival estimates for brain tumor patients as a more accurate measure of survival for those who have already survived for a specified amount of time after diagnosis. Data on primary malignant and nonmalignant brain tumor cases diagnosed from 1985-2005 from selected SEER state cancer registries were obtained. Relative survival up to 15 years postdiagnosis and varying relative conditional survival rates were computed using the life-table method. The overall 1-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis was 67.8% compared to the 6-month relative conditional survival rate of 85.7% for 6-month survivors (the probability of surviving to 1 year given survival to 6 months). The 10-year overall relative survival rate was 49.5% from time of diagnosis compared to the 8-year relative conditional survival rate of 79.2% for 2-year survivors. Conditional survival estimates and standard survival estimates varied by histology, behavior, and age at diagnosis. The 5-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis for glioblastoma was 3.6% compared to the 3-year relative conditional survival rate of 36.4% for 2-year survivors. For most nonmalignant tumors, the difference between relative survival and the corresponding conditional survival estimates were minimal. Older age groups had greater numeric gains in survival but lower conditional survival estimates than other age groups. Similar findings were seen for other conditional survival intervals. Conditional survival is a useful disease surveillance measure for clinicians and brain tumor survivors to provide them with better 'real-time' estimates and hope. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

2009-01-01

Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copeland, Timothy; Putnam, Scott

The goal of Idaho Steelhead Monitoring and Evaluation Studies is to collect monitoring data to evaluate wild and natural steelhead populations in the Clearwater and Salmon river drainages. During 2007, intensive population data were collected in Fish Creek (Lochsa River tributary) and Rapid River (Little Salmon River tributary); extensive data were collected in other selected spawning tributaries. Weirs were operated in Fish Creek and Rapid River to estimate adult escapement and to collect samples for age determination and genetic analysis. Snorkel surveys were conducted in Fish Creek, Rapid River, and Boulder Creek (Little Salmon River tributary) to estimate parr density.more » Screw traps were operated in Fish Creek, Rapid River, Secesh River, and Big Creek to estimate juvenile emigrant abundance, to tag fish for survival estimation, and to collect samples for age determination and genetic analysis. The estimated wild adult steelhead escapement in Fish Creek was 81 fish and in Rapid River was 32 fish. We estimate that juvenile emigration was 24,127 fish from Fish Creek; 5,632 fish from Rapid River; and 43,674 fish from Big Creek. The Secesh trap was pulled for an extended period due to wildfires, so we did not estimate emigrant abundance for that location. In cooperation with Idaho Supplementation Studies, trap tenders PIT tagged 25,618 steelhead juveniles at 18 screw trap sites in the Clearwater and Salmon river drainages. To estimate age composition, 143 adult steelhead and 5,082 juvenile steelhead scale samples were collected. At the time of this report, 114 adult and 1,642 juvenile samples have been aged. Project personnel collected genetic samples from 122 adults and 839 juveniles. We sent 678 genetic samples to the IDFG Eagle Fish Genetics Laboratory for analysis. Water temperature was recorded at 37 locations in the Clearwater and Salmon river drainages.« less

Increased brain-predicted aging in treated HIV disease

PubMed Central

Underwood, Jonathan; Caan, Matthan W.A.; De Francesco, Davide; van Zoest, Rosan A.; Leech, Robert; Wit, Ferdinand W.N.M.; Portegies, Peter; Geurtsen, Gert J.; Schmand, Ben A.; Schim van der Loeff, Maarten F.; Franceschi, Claudio; Sabin, Caroline A.; Majoie, Charles B.L.M.; Winston, Alan; Reiss, Peter; Sharp, David J.

2017-01-01

Objective: To establish whether HIV disease is associated with abnormal levels of age-related brain atrophy, by estimating apparent brain age using neuroimaging and exploring whether these estimates related to HIV status, age, cognitive performance, and HIV-related clinical parameters. Methods: A large sample of virologically suppressed HIV-positive adults (n = 162, age 45–82 years) and highly comparable HIV-negative controls (n = 105) were recruited as part of the Comorbidity in Relation to AIDS (COBRA) collaboration. Using T1-weighted MRI scans, a machine-learning model of healthy brain aging was defined in an independent cohort (n = 2,001, aged 18–90 years). Neuroimaging data from HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals were then used to estimate brain-predicted age; then brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD = brain-predicted brain age − chronological age) scores were calculated. Neuropsychological and clinical assessments were also carried out. Results: HIV-positive individuals had greater brain-PAD score (mean ± SD 2.15 ± 7.79 years) compared to HIV-negative individuals (−0.87 ± 8.40 years; b = 3.48, p < 0.01). Increased brain-PAD score was associated with decreased performance in multiple cognitive domains (information processing speed, executive function, memory) and general cognitive performance across all participants. Brain-PAD score was not associated with age, duration of HIV infection, or other HIV-related measures. Conclusion: Increased apparent brain aging, predicted using neuroimaging, was observed in HIV-positive adults, despite effective viral suppression. Furthermore, the magnitude of increased apparent brain aging related to cognitive deficits. However, predicted brain age difference did not correlate with chronological age or duration of HIV infection, suggesting that HIV disease may accentuate rather than accelerate brain aging. PMID:28258081

Increased brain-predicted aging in treated HIV disease.

PubMed

Cole, James H; Underwood, Jonathan; Caan, Matthan W A; De Francesco, Davide; van Zoest, Rosan A; Leech, Robert; Wit, Ferdinand W N M; Portegies, Peter; Geurtsen, Gert J; Schmand, Ben A; Schim van der Loeff, Maarten F; Franceschi, Claudio; Sabin, Caroline A; Majoie, Charles B L M; Winston, Alan; Reiss, Peter; Sharp, David J

2017-04-04

To establish whether HIV disease is associated with abnormal levels of age-related brain atrophy, by estimating apparent brain age using neuroimaging and exploring whether these estimates related to HIV status, age, cognitive performance, and HIV-related clinical parameters. A large sample of virologically suppressed HIV-positive adults (n = 162, age 45-82 years) and highly comparable HIV-negative controls (n = 105) were recruited as part of the Comorbidity in Relation to AIDS (COBRA) collaboration. Using T1-weighted MRI scans, a machine-learning model of healthy brain aging was defined in an independent cohort (n = 2,001, aged 18-90 years). Neuroimaging data from HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals were then used to estimate brain-predicted age; then brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD = brain-predicted brain age - chronological age) scores were calculated. Neuropsychological and clinical assessments were also carried out. HIV-positive individuals had greater brain-PAD score (mean ± SD 2.15 ± 7.79 years) compared to HIV-negative individuals (-0.87 ± 8.40 years; b = 3.48, p < 0.01). Increased brain-PAD score was associated with decreased performance in multiple cognitive domains (information processing speed, executive function, memory) and general cognitive performance across all participants. Brain-PAD score was not associated with age, duration of HIV infection, or other HIV-related measures. Increased apparent brain aging, predicted using neuroimaging, was observed in HIV-positive adults, despite effective viral suppression. Furthermore, the magnitude of increased apparent brain aging related to cognitive deficits. However, predicted brain age difference did not correlate with chronological age or duration of HIV infection, suggesting that HIV disease may accentuate rather than accelerate brain aging. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

An examination of healthy aging across a conceptual continuum: prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Sara J; Jette, Alan M; Connell, Cathleen M

2012-06-01

Although the notion of healthy aging has gained wide acceptance in gerontology, measuring the phenomenon is challenging. Guided by a prominent conceptualization of healthy aging, we examined how shifting from a more to less stringent definition of healthy aging influences prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity. Data are from adults aged 65 years and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We examined four operational definitions of healthy aging. For each, we calculated prevalence estimates and examined the odds of healthy aging by age, education, gender, and race-ethnicity in 2006. We also examined the association between healthy aging and both self-rated health and death. Across definitions, the prevalence of healthy aging ranged from 3.3% to 35.5%. For all definitions, those classified as experiencing healthy aging had lower odds of fair or poor self-rated health and death over an 8-year period. The odds of being classified as "healthy" were lower among those of advanced age, those with less education, and women than for their corresponding counterparts across all definitions. Moving across the conceptual continuum--from a more to less rigid definition of healthy aging--markedly increases the measured prevalence of healthy aging. Importantly, results suggest that all examined definitions identified a subgroup of older adults who had substantially lower odds of reporting fair or poor health and dying over an 8-year period, providing evidence of the validity of our definitions. Conceptualizations that emphasize symptomatic disease and functional health may be particularly useful for public health purposes.

Otoliths reveal a diverse age structure for humper lake trout in Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham-Curtis, Mary K.; Bronte, Charles R.

1996-01-01

Humpers are one of at least three morphological variants of wild lake trout Salvelinus namaycush that maintain self-sustaining populations in Lake Superior. In an early study, bumpers from Isle Royale were shown to have a sharply truncated age distribution that was attributed to high mortality after age 11, but we suspected that these fish were underaged. In August of 1989 and 1992 we collected spawning humper lake trout from the same area and estimated their ages using both scales and sagittal otoliths. Humpers in our sample ranged from 5 to 13 years, based on scale annuli, but counts of sagitta annuli revealed ages of 8 to 28 years. Individual discrepancies between ages from scales and sagittae varied from –2 to 20 years, but differences between scale and otolith ages did not increase with individual age. We applied the von Bertalanffy growth model to the humper length-at-age data to indirectly assess the accuracy of aging estimates. The model significantly overestimated mean asymptotic length when scale ages were used, but the mean asymptotic length estimate was more similar to observed lengths when sagitta ages were used. Our results corroborate evidence that bumpers in Lake Superior grow more slowly and mature at a smaller size than lean lake trout; however, the age composition of bumpers is more diverse than previously thought. This particular population experiences little or no exploitation; the presence of older fish provides one standard by which the success of lake trout rehabilitation programs can be evaluated and emphasizes the need for accurate aging techniques.

Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales

PubMed Central

Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

2014-01-01

Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R2 of 0.787 (P = 3.04e−16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent–offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. PMID:24606053

CREATING A DECISION CONTEXT FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND CONSISTENT APPLICATION OF INHALATION DOSIMETRY MODELS IN CHILDREN'S RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of risks to children from exposure to airborne pollutants is often complicated by the lack of reliable epidemiological data specific to this age group. As a result, risks are generally estimated from extrapolations based on data obtained in other human age groups (e.g....

A new method for ageing Marbled Murrelets and the effect on productivity estimates

Treesearch

L.L. Long; C.J. Ralph; S. Miller

2001-01-01

Accurate knowledge of the number of newly-fledged juveniles offshore is critical to estimates of productivity of the threatened Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus). We describe a method for collecting productivity data which allows researchers to objectively evaluate age determinations and their effect on juvenile percentages. This has the...

Intellectual Development within Transracial Adoptive Families: Retesting the Confluence Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berbaum, Michael L.; Moreland, Richard L.

1985-01-01

Estimates confluence model of intellectual development for a within-family sample of 321 children from 101 transracial adoptive families. Mental ages of children and their parents and birth or adoption intervals were used in a nonlinear least-squares estimation procedure to obtain children's predicted mental ages. Results suggest efficiency of the…

Estimating the formation age distribution of continental crust by unmixing zircon ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korenaga, Jun

2018-01-01

Continental crust provides first-order control on Earth's surface environment, enabling the presence of stable dry landmasses surrounded by deep oceans. The evolution of continental crust is important for atmospheric evolution, because continental crust is an essential component of deep carbon cycle and is likely to have played a critical role in the oxygenation of the atmosphere. Geochemical information stored in the mineral zircon, known for its resilience to diagenesis and metamorphism, has been central to ongoing debates on the genesis and evolution of continental crust. However, correction for crustal reworking, which is the most critical step when estimating original formation ages, has been incorrectly formulated, undermining the significance of previous estimates. Here I suggest a simple yet promising approach for reworking correction using the global compilation of zircon data. The present-day distribution of crustal formation age estimated by the new "unmixing" method serves as the lower bound to the true crustal growth, and large deviations from growth models based on mantle depletion imply the important role of crustal recycling through the Earth history.

An overall decline both in recollection and familiarity in healthy aging.

PubMed

Pitarque, Alfonso; Sales, Alicia; Meléndez, Juan C; Mayordomo, Teresa; Satorres, Encar

2015-01-01

In the area of recognition memory, the experimental data have been inconsistent about whether or not familiarity declines in healthy aging. A recent meta-analysis concluded that familiarity is impaired when estimated with the remember-know procedure, but not with the process-dissociation procedure. We present an associative recognition experiment with remember-know judgments that allow us to estimate both recollection and familiarity using both procedures in the same task and with the same participants (a sample of healthy older people and another sample of young people). Moreover, we performed a within-subjects manipulation of the type of materials (pairs of words or pairs of pictures), and the repetition or not of the pairs during the study phase. The results show that familiarity, estimated using both estimation procedures, declines significantly with age, although the effect size obtained with the process-dissociation procedure is significantly smaller than the one obtained with the remember-know procedure. Our results show that aging is associated with significant decreases both in recollection and, to a lesser extent, familiarity.

Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children.

PubMed

Lee, Eunsol; Goo, Hyun Woo; Lee, Jae-Yeong

2015-08-01

It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children.

Estimation of daily age and timing of hatching of exotic Asian swamp eels Monopterus albus (Zuiew, 1793) in a backwater marsh of the Chattahoochee River, Georgia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Lafleur, C.

2011-01-01

Otoliths were used to estimate daily age, growth, and hatching date of the exotic Asian swamp eel (Monopterus albus) captured from a backwater marsh of the Chattahoochee River, Georgia, USA. The eels were sampled using leaf litter traps (N = 140) from 17 July to 28 August 2008. The captured (N = 15) Asian swamp eels ranged in total length from 4.9 cm to 12.2 cm, and were estimated to be from 21 to 51 days old (N = 13), and hatched from 13 June to 7 August 2008. Assuming linear growth, these individuals grew an average rate of 0.2 cm per day. To the authors' knowledge, this was the first time otoliths were used to estimate daily age, growth, and hatching date for M. albus, which can be useful for understanding the ecology of this species in the wild.

Application of prescribing recommendations in older people with reduced kidney function: a cross-sectional study in general practice.

PubMed

Wood, Su; Petty, Duncan; Glidewell, Liz; Raynor, Dk Theo

2018-05-01

Kidney function reduces with age, increasing the risk of harm from increased blood levels of many medicines. Although estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is reported for prescribing decisions in those aged ≥65 years, creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) gives a more accurate estimate of kidney function. To explore the extent of prescribing outside recommendations for people aged ≥65 years with reduced kidney function in primary care and to assess the impact of using eGFR instead of creatinine clearance to calculate kidney function. A cross-sectional survey of anonymised prescribing data in people aged ≥65 years from all 80 general practices (70 900 patients) in a north of England former primary care trust. The prevalence of prescribing outside recommendations was analysed for eight exemplar drugs. Data were collected for age, sex, actual weight, serum creatinine, and eGFR. Kidney function as creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) was calculated using actual body weight and estimated ideal body weight. Kidney function was too low for recommended prescribing in 4-40% of people aged ≥65 years, and in 24-80% of people aged ≥85 years despite more than 90% of patients having recent recorded kidney function results. Using eGFR overestimated kidney function for 3-28% of those aged ≥65 years, and for 13-58% of those aged ≥85 years. Increased age predicted higher odds of having a kidney function estimate too low for recommended prescribing of the study drugs. Prescribing recommendations when kidney function is reduced are not applied for many people aged ≥65 years in primary care. Using eGFR considerably overestimates kidney function for prescribing and, therefore, creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) should be assessed when prescribing for these people. Interventions are needed to aid prescribers when kidney function is reduced. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

A radiographic study of the mandibular third molar root development in different ethnic groups.

PubMed

Liversidge, H M; Peariasamy, K; Folayan, M O; Adeniyi, A O; Ngom, P I; Mikami, Y; Shimada, Y; Kuroe, K; Tvete, I F; Kvaal, S I

2017-12-01

The nature of differences in the timing of tooth formation between ethnic groups is important when estimating age. To calculate age of transition of the mandibular third (M3) molar tooth stages from archived dental radiographs from sub-Saharan Africa, Malaysia, Japan and two groups from London UK (Whites and Bangladeshi). The number of radiographs was 4555 (2028 males, 2527 females) with an age range 10-25 years. The left M3 was staged into Moorrees stages. A probit model was fitted to calculate mean ages for transitions between stages for males and females and each ethnic group separately. The estimated age distributions given each M3 stage was calculated. To assess differences in timing of M3 between ethnic groups, three models were proposed: a separate model for each ethnic group, a joint model and a third model combining some aspects across groups. The best model fit was tested using Bayesian and Akaikes information criteria (BIC and AIC) and log likelihood ratio test. Differences in mean ages of M3 root stages were found between ethnic groups, however all groups showed large standard deviation values. The AIC and log likelihood ratio test indicated that a separate model for each ethnic group was best. Small differences were also noted between timing of M3 between males and females, with the exception of the Malaysian group. These findings suggests that features of a reference data set (wide age range and uniform age distribution) and a Bayesian statistical approach are more important than population specific convenience samples to estimate age of an individual using M3. Some group differences were evident in M3 timing, however, this has some impact on the confidence interval of estimated age in females and little impact in males because of the large variation in age.

Efficacy of otoliths and first dorsal spines for preliminary age and growth determination in Atlantic Tripletails

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parr, Russell T.; Bringolf, Robert B.; Jennings, Cecil A.

2018-01-01

The Atlantic Tripletail Lobotes surinamensis is a popular sport fish for which age and growth data are scarce in general and nonexistent for Georgia (GA), USA, waters. These data are necessary to ensure that management regulations are adequate to protect this species, especially given its popularity as a sport fish. We evaluated whether otoliths and spines were suitable for determining the estimated age (hereafter, “age”) and growth rates of Atlantic Tripletails, and we ascertained whether one method was more accurate than the other. Atlantic Tripletails were sampled by angling and trawling during March 30–August 10, 2009, and March 14–August 6, 2010, in nearshore GA waters of the Atlantic Ocean. During the study, 243 Atlantic Tripletails were captured and sampled for aging structures. Sagittal otoliths and the first dorsal spine were removed from each fish and used to estimate the age and growth rate. Mean differences in TL at age for spine and otolith data were evaluated with ANOVA. Estimated ages for males and females ranged from 1 to 5 years based on otoliths and spines. Both otolith and spine mean TLs at ages 1 and 2 were significantly different from each other as well as all other age‐classes, whereas mean TLs for ages 3–5 were not significantly different. Differences in Atlantic Tripletail TL among the otolith‐ and spine‐derived age‐classes were not significant. Each method used to age Atlantic Tripletails had advantages and disadvantages. Otoliths had higher initial reader agreement than spines, although agreement between the structures was 84.1%. However, otoliths require sacrifice of the fish, whereas a spine can be taken without sacrificing the fish. The lack of concrete life history data and population estimates suggests that when feasible, nonlethal aging methods would be preferred over lethal methods to ensure the survival of Atlantic Tripletail populations.

Dental age assessment of southern Chinese using the United Kingdom Caucasian reference dataset.

PubMed

Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Roberts, Graham J; King, Nigel M; Wong, Hai Ming

2012-03-10

Dental age assessment is one the most accurate methods for estimating the age of an unknown person. Demirjian's dataset on a French-Canadian population has been widely tested for its applicability on various ethnic groups including southern Chinese. Following inaccurate results from these studies, investigators are now confronted with using alternate datasets for comparison. Testing the applicability of other reliable datasets which result in accurate findings might limit the need to develop population specific standards. Recently, a Reference Data Set (RDS) similar to the Demirjian was prepared in the United Kingdom (UK) and has been subsequently validated. The advantages of the UK Caucasian RDS includes versatility from including both the maxillary and mandibular dentitions, involvement of a wide age group of subjects for evaluation and the possibility of precise age estimation with the mathematical technique of meta-analysis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of the United Kingdom Caucasian RDS on southern Chinese subjects. Dental panoramic tomographs (DPT) of 266 subjects (133 males and 133 females) aged 2-21 years that were previously taken for clinical diagnostic purposes were selected and scored by a single calibrated examiner based on Demirjian's classification of tooth developmental stages (A-H). The ages corresponding to each stage of tooth developmental stage were obtained from the UK dataset. Intra-examiner reproducibility was tested and the Cohen kappa (0.88) showed that the level of agreement was 'almost perfect'. The estimated dental age was then compared with the chronological age using a paired t-test, with statistical significance set at p<0.01. The results showed that the UK dataset, underestimated the age of southern Chinese subjects by 0.24 years but the results were not statistically significant. In conclusion, the UK Caucasian RDS may not be suitable for estimating the age of southern Chinese subjects and there is a need for an ethnic specific reference dataset for southern Chinese. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Prediction of adult height by Tanner-Whitehouse method in young Caucasian male athletes.

PubMed

Ostojic, S M

2013-04-01

Although the accuracy of final height prediction using skeletal age development has been confirmed in many studies for children treated for congenital primary hypothyroidism, short normal children, constitutionally tall children, no studies compared the predicted adult height at young age with final stature in athletic population. In this study, the intention was to investigate to what extent the Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) method is adequate for prediction of final stature in young Caucasian male athletes. Prospective observational study. Plain radiographs of the left hand and wrist were obtained from 477 athletic children (ranging in age from 8.0 to 17.9 years) who came to the outpatient clinic between 2000 and 2011 for adult height estimation, with no orthopedic trauma suspected. Adult height was estimated using bone age rates according to TW method. Height was measured both at baseline and follow-up (at the age of 19 years). No significant difference was found between the estimated adult height (184.9 ± 9.7 cm) and final stature (185.6 ± 9.6 cm) [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-3.01, P = 0.55]. The relationship between estimated and final adult height was high (r = 0.96). Bland-Altman analysis confirmed that the 95% of differences between estimated adult height and final stature lie between limits of agreement (mean ± 2 SD) (-5.84 and 4.52 cm). TW method is an accurate method of predicting adult height in male normal-growing athletic boys.

Interannual and Spatial Variability in Maturity of Walleye Pollock Gadus chalcogrammus and Implications for Spawning Stock Biomass Estimates in the Gulf of Alaska

PubMed Central

Kruse, Gordon H.; Dorn, Martin W.

2016-01-01

Catch quotas for walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus, the dominant species in the groundfish fishery off Alaska, are set by applying harvest control rules to annual estimates of spawning stock biomass (SSB) from age-structured stock assessments. Adult walleye pollock abundance and maturity status have been monitored in early spring in Shelikof Strait in the Gulf of Alaska for almost three decades. The sampling strategy for maturity status is largely characterized as targeted, albeit opportunistic, sampling of trawl tows made during hydroacoustic surveys. Trawl sampling during pre-spawning biomass surveys, which do not adequately account for spatial patterns in the distribution of immature and mature fish, can bias estimated maturity ogives from which SSB is calculated. Utilizing these maturity data, we developed mixed-effects generalized additive models to examine spatial and temporal patterns in walleye pollock maturity and the influence of these patterns on estimates of SSB. Current stock assessment practice is to estimate SSB as the product of annual estimates of numbers at age, weight at age, and mean maturity at age for 1983-present. In practice, we found this strategy to be conservative for a time period from 2003–2013 as, on average, it underestimates SSB by a 4.7 to 11.9% difference when compared to our estimates of SSB that account for spatial structure or both temporal and spatial structure. Inclusion of spatially explicit information for walleye pollock maturity has implications for understanding stock reproductive biology and thus the setting of sustainable harvest rates used to manage this valuable fishery. PMID:27736982

Comparison on three classification techniques for sex estimation from the bone length of Asian children below 19 years old: an analysis using different group of ages.

PubMed

Darmawan, M F; Yusuf, Suhaila M; Kadir, M R Abdul; Haron, H

2015-02-01

Sex estimation is used in forensic anthropology to assist the identification of individual remains. However, the estimation techniques tend to be unique and applicable only to a certain population. This paper analyzed sex estimation on living individual child below 19 years old using the length of 19 bones of left hand applied for three classification techniques, which were Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) multilayer perceptron. These techniques were carried out on X-ray images of the left hand taken from an Asian population data set. All the 19 bones of the left hand were measured using Free Image software, and all the techniques were performed using MATLAB. The group of age "16-19" years old and "7-9" years old were the groups that could be used for sex estimation with as their average of accuracy percentage was above 80%. ANN model was the best classification technique with the highest average of accuracy percentage in the two groups of age compared to other classification techniques. The results show that each classification technique has the best accuracy percentage on each different group of age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

PubMed

Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

2017-09-06

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

Gap Detection and Temporal Modulation Transfer Function as Behavioral Estimates of Auditory Temporal Acuity Using Band-Limited Stimuli in Young and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Shen, Yi

2015-01-01

Purpose Gap detection and the temporal modulation transfer function (TMTF) are 2 common methods to obtain behavioral estimates of auditory temporal acuity. However, the agreement between the 2 measures is not clear. This study compares results from these 2 methods and their dependencies on listener age and hearing status. Method Gap detection thresholds and the parameters that describe the TMTF (sensitivity and cutoff frequency) were estimated for young and older listeners who were naive to the experimental tasks. Stimuli were 800-Hz-wide noises with upper frequency limits of 2400 Hz, presented at 85 dB SPL. A 2-track procedure (Shen & Richards, 2013) was used for the efficient estimation of the TMTF. Results No significant correlation was found between gap detection threshold and the sensitivity or the cutoff frequency of the TMTF. No significant effect of age and hearing loss on either the gap detection threshold or the TMTF cutoff frequency was found, while the TMTF sensitivity improved with increasing hearing threshold and worsened with increasing age. Conclusion Estimates of temporal acuity using gap detection and TMTF paradigms do not seem to provide a consistent description of the effects of listener age and hearing status on temporal envelope processing. PMID:25087722

Peritoneal Fluid Transport rather than Peritoneal Solute Transport Associates with Dialysis Vintage and Age of Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia

2016-01-01

During peritoneal dialysis (PD), the peritoneal membrane undergoes ageing processes that affect its function. Here we analyzed associations of patient age and dialysis vintage with parameters of peritoneal transport of fluid and solutes, directly measured and estimated based on the pore model, for individual patients. Thirty-three patients (15 females; age 60 (21–87) years; median time on PD 19 (3–100) months) underwent sequential peritoneal equilibration test. Dialysis vintage and patient age did not correlate. Estimation of parameters of the two-pore model of peritoneal transport was performed. The estimated fluid transport parameters, including hydraulic permeability (LpS), fraction of ultrasmall pores (α u), osmotic conductance for glucose (OCG), and peritoneal absorption, were generally independent of solute transport parameters (diffusive mass transport parameters). Fluid transport parameters correlated whereas transport parameters for small solutes and proteins did not correlate with dialysis vintage and patient age. Although LpS and OCG were lower for older patients and those with long dialysis vintage, αu was higher. Thus, fluid transport parameters—rather than solute transport parameters—are linked to dialysis vintage and patient age and should therefore be included when monitoring processes linked to ageing of the peritoneal membrane. PMID:26989432

[Age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items: mega-data from a Japanese Health Service Association].

PubMed

Suka, Machi; Yoshida, Katsumi; Kawai, Tadashi; Aoki, Yoshikazu; Yamane, Noriyuki; Yamauchi, Kuniaki

2005-07-01

To determine age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items in Japanese adults. Health examination data were accumulated from 24 different prefectural health service associations affiliated with the Japan Association of Health Service. Those who were non-smokers, drank less than 7 days/week, and had a body mass index of 18.5-24.9kg/m2 were sampled as a reference population (n = 737,538; 224,947 men and 512,591 women). After classified by age and sex, reference intervals for 10 health examination items (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, uric acid, AST, ALT, gamma-GT, and hemoglobin) were estimated using the parametric and nonparametric methods. In every item except for hemoglobin, men had higher reference intervals than women. Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and glucose showed an upward trend in values with increasing age. Hemoglobin showed a downward trend in values with increasing age. Triglyceride, ALT, and gamma-GT reached a peak in middle age. Overall, parametric estimates showed narrower reference intervals than non-parametric estimates. Reference intervals vary with age and sex. Age- and sex-specific reference intervals may contribute to better assessment of health examination data.

Acceleration of leukocytes' epigenetic age as an early tumor and sex-specific marker of breast and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Durso, Danielle Fernandes; Bacalini, Maria Giulia; Sala, Claudia; Pirazzini, Chiara; Marasco, Elena; Bonafé, Massimiliano; do Valle, Ítalo Faria; Gentilini, Davide; Castellani, Gastone; Faria, Ana Maria Caetano; Franceschi, Claudio; Garagnani, Paolo; Nardini, Christine

2017-04-04

Changes in blood epigenetic age have been associated with several pathological conditions and have recently been described to anticipate cancer development. In this work, we analyze a publicly available leukocytes methylation dataset to evaluate the relation between DNA methylation age and the prospective development of specific types of cancer. We calculated DNA methylation age acceleration using five state-of-the-art estimators (three multi-site: Horvath, Hannum, Weidner; and two CpG specific: ELOV2 and FHL2) in a cohort including 845 subjects from the EPIC-Italy project and we compared 424 samples that remained cancer-free over the approximately ten years of follow-up with 235 and 166 subjects who developed breast and colorectal cancer, respectively. We show that the epigenetic age estimated from blood DNA methylation data is statistically significantly associated to future breast and male colorectal cancer development. These results are corroborated by survival analysis that shows significant association between age acceleration and cancer incidence suggesting that the chance of developing age-related diseases may be predicted by circulating epigenetic markers, with a dependence upon tumor type, sex and age estimator. These are encouraging results towards the non-invasive and perspective usage of epigenetic biomarkers.

Age accuracy and resolution of Quaternary corals used as proxies for sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edinger, E. N.; Burr, G. S.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Ortiz, J. C.

2007-01-01

The accuracy of global eustatic sea level curves measured from raised Quaternary reefs, using radiometric ages of corals at known heights, may be limited by time-averaging, which affects the variation in coral age at a given height. Time-averaging was assessed in uplifted Holocene reef sequences from the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, using radiocarbon dating of coral skeletons in both horizontal transects and vertical sequences. Calibrated 2σ age ranges varied from 800 to 1060 years along horizontal transects, but weighted mean ages calculated from 15-18 dates per horizon were accurate to a resolution within 154-214 yr. Approximately 40% of the variability in age estimate resulted from internal variability inherent to 14C estimates, and 60% was due to time-averaging. The accuracy of age estimates of sea level change in studies using single dated corals as proxies for sea level is probably within 1000 yr of actual age, but can be resolved to ≤ 250 yr if supported by dates from analysis of a statistical population of corals at each stratigraphic interval. The range of time-averaging among reef corals was much less than that for shelly benthos. Ecological time-averaging dominated over sedimentological time averaging for reef corals, opposite to patterns reported from shelly benthos in siliciclastic environments.

Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

Quantifying Calcium Intake in School Age Children: Development and Validation of the Calcium Counts!© Food Frequency Questionnaire

PubMed Central

ZEMEL, BABETTE S.; CAREY, LISA B.; PAULHAMUS, DONNA R.; STALLINGS, VIRGINIA A.; ITTENBACH, RICHARD F.

2014-01-01

Quantifying dietary behavior is difficult and can be intrusive. Calcium, an essential mineral for skeletal development during childhood, is difficult to assess. Few studies have examined the use of food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) for assessing calcium intake in school-age children. This study evaluated the validity and reliability of the Calcium Counts!© FFQ (CCFFQ) for estimating calcium intake in school children in the US. Healthy children, aged 7–10 years (n = 139) completed the CCFFQ and 7-day weighed food records. A subset of subjects completed a second CCFFQ within 3.6 months. Concurrent validity was determined using Pearson correlations between the CCFFQ and food record estimates of calcium intake, and the relationship between quintiles for the two measures. Predictive validity was determined using generalized linear regression models to explore the effects of age, race, and gender. Inter- and intra-individual variability in calcium intake was high (>300 mg/day). Calcium intake was ~300 mg/day higher by CCFFQ compared to food records. Concurrent validity was moderate (r = 0.61) for the entire cohort and higher for selected subgroups. Predictive validity estimates yielded significant relationships between CCFFQ and food record estimates of calcium intake alone and in the presence of such potential effect modifiers as age group, race, and gender. Test–retest reliability was high (r = 0.74). Although calcium intake estimated by the CCFFQ was greater than that measured by food records, the CCFFQ provides valid and reliable estimates of calcium intake in children. The CCFFQ is especially well-suited as a tool to identify children with low calcium intakes. PMID:19621431

Prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in persons 60 years of age and older in the United States: effect of different methods of case classification.

PubMed

Rasch, Elizabeth K; Hirsch, Rosemarie; Paulose-Ram, Ryne; Hochberg, Marc C

2003-04-01

To determine prevalence estimates for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in noninstitutionalized older adults in the US. Prevalence estimates were compared using 3 different classification methods based on current classification criteria for RA. Data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-III) were used to generate prevalence estimates by 3 classification methods in persons 60 years of age and older (n = 5,302). Method 1 applied the "n of k" rule, such that subjects who met 3 of 6 of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1987 criteria were classified as having RA (data from hand radiographs were not available). In method 2, the ACR classification tree algorithm was applied. For method 3, medication data were used to augment case identification via method 2. Population prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were determined using the 3 methods on data stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and education. Overall prevalence estimates using the 3 classification methods were 2.03% (95% CI 1.30-2.76), 2.15% (95% CI 1.43-2.87), and 2.34% (95% CI 1.66-3.02), respectively. The prevalence of RA was generally greater in the following groups: women, Mexican Americans, respondents with less education, and respondents who were 70 years of age and older. The prevalence of RA in persons 60 years of age and older is approximately 2%, representing the proportion of the US elderly population who will most likely require medical intervention because of disease activity. Different classification methods yielded similar prevalence estimates, although detection of RA was enhanced by incorporation of data on use of prescription medications, an important consideration in large population surveys.

Comparison of parental estimate of developmental age with measured IQ in children with neurodevelopmental disorders.

PubMed

Chandler, S; Howlin, P; Simonoff, E; Kennedy, J; Baird, G

2016-07-01

Formal IQ tests are an important part of the diagnostic and needs-based assessment process for children with neurodevelopmental disorders. However, resources for such assessments are not always available. It has been suggested that parental estimates of their child's developmental age could serve as a proxy IQ when formal measures are unavailable. Parental estimates of their child's developmental age were converted to a developmental quotient (DQ) in 197 children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) aged 4-9 years, and 108 children with ADHD and intellectual disability (ADHD + ID) aged 7-15 years. Formal IQ assessments were then conducted. Parents completed the Social Communication Questionnaire ((SCQ), a measure of autism symptomatology) and a demographic questionnaire. In the ASD sample, 58% of parent estimates were within 15 points (i.e. one standard deviation) of the child's measured IQ score. Lower measured IQ and lower SCQ total score predicted higher parental accuracy. In the ADHD + ID sample, 74% of parental estimates were within 15 points of measured IQ. In this group, higher child IQ predicted greater parental accuracy. Parents in the ADHD + ID group were more likely to overestimate children's ability level than parents in the ASD group. In this study, the majority of parents of children with ADHD and ID were able to estimate their child's intellectual ability level with some accuracy. Parents of children with ASD were less accurate, but this may be because these parents were focussing more on children's level of adaptive functioning, which is known to be typically lower than cognitive ability in ASD. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimated numbers of men and women infected with HIV/AIDS in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Brouwer, Kimberly C; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Bravo-García, Enrique; Gayet, Cecilia; Patterson, Thomas L; Bertozzi, Stefano M; Hogg, Robert S

2006-03-01

Tijuana, Mexico, just south of San Diego, California, is located by the busiest land border crossing in the world. Although UNAIDS considers Mexico to be a country of "low prevalence, high risk," recent surveillance data among sentinel populations in Tijuana suggests HIV prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of men and women aged 15 to 49 years infected with HIV in Tijuana. Gender and age-specific estimates of the Tijuana population were obtained from the 2000 Mexican census. Population and HIV prevalence estimates for at-risk groups were obtained from published reports, community based studies, and data from the Centro Nacional para la Prevención y Control del VIH/SIDA (CENSIDA). Age-specific fertility rates for Mexico were used to derive the number of low and high-risk pregnant women. Numbers of HIV-positive men and women were estimated for each at-risk group and then aggregated. A high growth scenario based on current HIV prevalence and a conservative, low growth estimate were determined. A total of 686,600 men and women in Tijuana were aged 15 to 49 years at the time of the 2000 census. Considering both scenarios, the number of infected persons ranged from 1,803 to 5,472 (HIV prevalence: 0.26 to 0.80%). The majority of these persons were men (>70%). The largest number of infected persons were MSM (N = 1,146 to 3,300) and IDUs (N = 147 to 650). Our data suggest that up to one in every 125 persons aged 15-49 years in Tijuana is HIV-infected. Interventions to reduce ongoing spread of HIV are urgently needed.

The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background For accurate estimation of the future burden of communicable diseases, the dynamics of the population at risk – namely population growth and population ageing – need to be taken into account. Accurate burden estimates are necessary for informing policy-makers regarding the planning of vaccination and other control, intervention, and prevention measures. Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000–2030. Methods Population-level disease burden was quantified using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure applied to all health outcomes following acute infection. We used national notification data, pre-defined disease progression models, and a simple model of demographic dynamics to investigate the impact of population ageing on the burden of seasonal influenza and HBV. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore the potential impact of intervention-associated changes in incidence rates. Results Including population dynamics resulted in increasing burden over the study period for influenza, whereas a relatively stable future burden was predicted for HBV. For influenza, the increase in DALYs was localised within YLL for the oldest age-groups (55 and older), and for HBV the effect of longer life expectancy in the future was offset by a reduction in incidence in the age-groups most at risk of infection. For both infections, the predicted disease burden was greater than if a static demography was assumed: 1.0 (in 2000) to 2.3-fold (in 2030) higher DALYs for influenza; 1.3 (in 2000) to 1.5-fold (in 2030) higher for HBV. Conclusions There are clear, but diverging effects of an ageing population on the estimated disease burden of influenza and HBV in the Netherlands. Replacing static assumptions with a dynamic demographic approach appears essential for deriving realistic burden estimates for informing health policy. PMID:23217094

Prevalence of chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system.

PubMed

Harzke, Amy J; Baillargeon, Jacques G; Pruitt, Sandi L; Pulvino, John S; Paar, David P; Kelley, Michael F

2010-05-01

Given the rapid growth and aging of the US prison population in recent years, the disease profile and health care needs of inmates portend to have far-reaching public health implications. Although numerous studies have examined infectious disease prevalence and treatment in incarcerated populations, little is known about the prevalence of non-infectious chronic medical conditions in US prison populations. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of selected non-infectious chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system. The study population consisted of the total census of inmates who were incarcerated in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice for any duration from September 1, 2006 through August 31, 2007 (N=234,031). Information on medical diagnoses was obtained from a system-wide electronic medical record system. Overall crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were as follows: hypertension, 18.8%; asthma, 5.4%; diabetes, 4.2%; ischemic heart disease, 1.7%; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 0.96%; and cerebrovascular disease, 0.23%. Nearly one quarter (24.5%) of the study population had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for asthma, crude prevalence estimates of the selected conditions increased monotonically with age. Nearly two thirds (64.6%) of inmates who were >or=55 years of age had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for diabetes, crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were lower among Hispanic inmates than among non-Hispanic White inmates and African American inmates. Although age-standardized prevalence estimates for the selected conditions did not appear to exceed age-standardized estimates from the US general population, a large number of inmates were affected by one or more of these conditions. As the prison population continues to grow and to age, the burden of these conditions on correctional and community health care systems can be expected to increase.

Current Term Enrollment Estimates: Spring 2014

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Student Clearinghouse, 2014

2014-01-01

Current Term Enrollment Estimates, published every December and May by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, include national enrollment estimates by institutional sector, state, enrollment intensity, age group, and gender. Enrollment estimates are adjusted for Clearinghouse data coverage rates by institutional sector, state, and…

Current Term Enrollment Estimates: Fall 2014

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Student Clearinghouse, 2014

2014-01-01

Current Term Enrollment Estimates, published every December and May by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC), include national enrollment estimates by institutional sector, state, enrollment intensity, age group, and gender. Enrollment estimates are adjusted for Clearinghouse data coverage rates by institutional sector, state,…

Estimating Children's Soil/Dust Ingestion Rates through ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background: Soil/dust ingestion rates are important variables in assessing children’s health risks in contaminated environments. Current estimates are based largely on soil tracer methodology, which is limited by analytical uncertainty, small sample size, and short study duration. Objectives: The objective was to estimate site-specific soil/dust ingestion rates through reevaluation of the lead absorption dose–response relationship using new bioavailability data from the Bunker Hill Mining and Metallurgical Complex Superfund Site (BHSS) in Idaho, USA. Methods: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in vitro bioavailability methodology was applied to archived BHSS soil and dust samples. Using age-specific biokinetic slope factors, we related bioavailable lead from these sources to children’s blood lead levels (BLLs) monitored during cleanup from 1988 through 2002. Quantitative regression analyses and exposure assessment guidance were used to develop candidate soil/dust source partition scenarios estimating lead intake, allowing estimation of age-specific soil/dust ingestion rates. These ingestion rate and bioavailability estimates were simultaneously applied to the U.S. EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children to determine those combinations best approximating observed BLLs. Results: Absolute soil and house dust bioavailability averaged 33% (SD ± 4%) and 28% (SD ± 6%), respectively. Estimated BHSS age-specific soil/du

Comparison of gestational age at birth based on last menstrual period and ultrasound during the first trimester.

PubMed

Hoffman, Caroline S; Messer, Lynne C; Mendola, Pauline; Savitz, David A; Herring, Amy H; Hartmann, Katherine E

2008-11-01

Reported last menstrual period (LMP) is commonly used to estimate gestational age (GA) but may be unreliable. Ultrasound in the first trimester is generally considered a highly accurate method of pregnancy dating. The authors compared first trimester report of LMP and first trimester ultrasound for estimating GA at birth and examined whether disagreement between estimates varied by maternal and infant characteristics. Analyses included 1867 singleton livebirths to women enrolled in a prospective pregnancy cohort. The authors computed the difference between LMP and ultrasound GA estimates (GA difference) and examined the proportion of births within categories of GA difference stratified by maternal and infant characteristics. The proportion of births classified as preterm, term and post-term by pregnancy dating methods was also examined. LMP-based estimates were 0.8 days (standard deviation = 8.0, median = 0) longer on average than ultrasound estimates. LMP classified more births as post-term than ultrasound (4.0% vs. 0.7%). GA difference was greater among young women, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic women, women of non-optimal body weight and mothers of low-birthweight infants. Results indicate first trimester report of LMP reasonably approximates gestational age obtained from first trimester ultrasound, but the degree of discrepancy between estimates varies by important maternal characteristics.

A fully nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data

PubMed Central

Gorfine, Malka; Bordo, Nadia; Hsu, Li

2017-01-01

Summary Consider a popular case–control family study where individuals with a disease under study (case probands) and individuals who do not have the disease (control probands) are randomly sampled from a well-defined population. Possibly right-censored age at onset and disease status are observed for both probands and their relatives. For example, case probands are men diagnosed with prostate cancer, control probands are men free of prostate cancer, and the prostate cancer history of the fathers of the probands is also collected. Inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior lead to correlation among the outcomes within a family. In this article, a novel nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function is provided. The estimator is defined in the presence of intra-cluster dependence, and is based on consistent smoothed kernel estimators of conditional survival functions. By simulation, it is shown that the proposed estimator performs very well in terms of bias. The utility of the estimator is illustrated by the analysis of case–control family data of early onset prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first article that provides a fully nonparametric marginal survival estimator based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data. PMID:27436674

On the ages of resonant, eroded and fossil asteroid families

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Andrea; Knežević, Zoran; Spoto, Federica; Cellino, Alberto; Novaković, Bojan; Tsirvoulis, Georgios

2017-05-01

In this work we have estimated 10 collisional ages of 9 families for which for different reasons our previous attempts failed. In general, these are difficult cases that required dedicated effort, such as a new family classifications for asteroids in mean motion resonances, in particular the 1/1 and 2/1 with Jupiter, as well as a revision of the classification inside the 3/2 resonance. Of the families locked in mean motion resonances, by employing a numerical calibration to estimate the Yarkovsky effect in proper eccentricity, we succeeded in determining ages of the families of (1911) Schubart and of the "super-Hilda" family, assuming this is actually a severely eroded original family of (153) Hilda. In the Trojan region we found families with almost no Yarkovsky evolution, for which we could compute only physically implausible ages. Hence, we interpreted their modest dispersions of proper elements as implying that the Trojan asteroid families are fossil families, frozen at their proper elements determined by the original ejection velocity field. We have found a new family, among the Griquas locked in the 2/1 resonance with Jupiter, the family of (11097) 1994 UD1. We have estimated the ages of 6 families affected by secular resonances: families of (5) Astraea, (25) Phocaea, (283) Emma, (363) Padua, (686) Gersuind, and (945) Barcelona. By using in all these cases a numerical calibration method, we have shown that the secular resonances do not affect significantly the secular change of proper a. We have confirmed the existence of the family resulting from cratering on (5) Astraea by computing a new set of resonant proper elements adapted to the resonance g +g5 - 2g6 : this new family has a much larger membership and has a shape compatible with simple collisional models. For the family of (145) Adeona we could estimate the age only after removal of a number of assumed interlopers. With the present paper we have concluded the series dedicated to the determination of asteroid ages with a uniform method. Overall we computed 53 ages for a total of 49 families. For the future work there remain families too small at present to provide reliable estimates, as well as some complex families (221, 135, 298) which may have more ages than we could currently estimate. Future improvement of some already determined family ages is also possible by increasing family membership, revising the calibrations, and using more reliable physical data.

The fossilized birth–death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.; Huelsenbeck, John P.; Stadler, Tanja

2014-01-01

Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data—most commonly, fossil age estimates—are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the “fossilized birth–death” (FBD) process—a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene. PMID:25009181

[Present possibilities of age determination in forensic medicine with emphasis on the importance of measurement of D- and L- forms of aspartic acid. I. An overview].

PubMed

Pilin, A; Pudil, F; Gross, R; Herrmannová, M

1997-02-01

Evaluation of age of unknown deceased persons belongs to the most important ways to identification. For the time being, morphological methods are used, namely evaluation of age according to Gustafson's method from tooth grindings or by macroscopical estimation of abrasion, transparency of root dentine, alveolar atrophy and number of missing teeth. Evaluation of the data can be influenced by an individual failure and experience showed an age related decrease of precision. Recently, some papers occurred estimating a relation of D, L-forms of aspartic acid which depends on the age with a significant precision.

The association between major depression prevalence and sex becomes weaker with age.

PubMed

Patten, Scott B; Williams, Jeanne V A; Lavorato, Dina H; Wang, Jian Li; Bulloch, Andrew G M; Sajobi, Tolulope

2016-02-01

Women have a higher prevalence of major depressive episodes (MDE) than men, and the annual prevalence of MDE declines with age. Age by sex interactions may occur (a weakening of the sex effect with age), but are easily overlooked since individual studies lack statistical power to detect interactions. The objective of this study was to evaluate age by sex interactions in MDE prevalence. In Canada, a series of 10 national surveys conducted between 1996 and 2013 assessed MDE prevalence in respondents over the age of 14. Treating age as a continuous variable, binomial and linear regression was used to model age by sex interactions in each survey. To increase power, the survey-specific interaction coefficients were then pooled using meta-analytic methods. The estimated interaction terms were homogeneous. In the binomial regression model I (2) was 31.2 % and was not statistically significant (Q statistic = 13.1, df = 9, p = 0.159). The pooled estimate (-0.004) was significant (z = 3.13, p = 0.002), indicating that the effect of sex became weaker with increasing age. This resulted in near disappearance of the sex difference in the 75+ age group. This finding was also supported by an examination of age- and sex-specific estimates pooled across the surveys. The association of MDE prevalence with sex becomes weaker with age. The interaction may reflect biological effect modification. Investigators should test for, and consider inclusion of age by sex interactions in epidemiological analyses of MDE prevalence.

Female genital mutilation/cutting in Italy: an enhanced estimation for first generation migrant women based on 2016 survey data.

PubMed

Ortensi, Livia Elisa; Farina, Patrizia; Leye, Els

2018-01-12

Migration flows of women from Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting practicing countries have generated a need for data on women potentially affected by Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting. This paper presents enhanced estimates for foreign-born women and asylum seekers in Italy in 2016, with the aim of supporting resource planning and policy making, and advancing the methodological debate on estimation methods. The estimates build on the most recent methodological development in Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting direct and indirect estimation for Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting non-practicing countries. Direct estimation of prevalence was performed for 9 communities using the results of the survey FGM-Prev, held in Italy in 2016. Prevalence for communities not involved in the FGM-Prev survey was estimated using to the 'extrapolation-of-FGM/C countries prevalence data method' with corrections according to the selection hypothesis. It is estimated that 60 to 80 thousand foreign-born women aged 15 and over with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting are present in Italy in 2016. We also estimated the presence of around 11 to 13 thousand cut women aged 15 and over among asylum seekers to Italy in 2014-2016. Due to the long established presence of female migrants from some practicing communities Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is emerging as an issue also among women aged 60 and over from selected communities. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is an additional source of concern for slightly more than 60% of women seeking asylum. Reliable estimates on Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting at country level are important for evidence-based policy making and service planning. This study suggests that indirect estimations cannot fully replace direct estimations, even if corrections for migrant socioeconomic selection can be implemented to reduce the bias.

The Model Human Processor and the older adult: parameter estimation and validation within a mobile phone task.

PubMed

Jastrzembski, Tiffany S; Charness, Neil

2007-12-01

The authors estimate weighted mean values for nine information processing parameters for older adults using the Card, Moran, and Newell (1983) Model Human Processor model. The authors validate a subset of these parameters by modeling two mobile phone tasks using two different phones and comparing model predictions to a sample of younger (N = 20; M-sub(age) = 20) and older (N = 20; M-sub(age) = 69) adults. Older adult models fit keystroke-level performance at the aggregate grain of analysis extremely well (R = 0.99) and produced equivalent fits to previously validated younger adult models. Critical path analyses highlighted points of poor design as a function of cognitive workload, hardware/software design, and user characteristics. The findings demonstrate that estimated older adult information processing parameters are valid for modeling purposes, can help designers understand age-related performance using existing interfaces, and may support the development of age-sensitive technologies.

Study of cyclic thermal aging of tube type receivers as a function of the duration of the cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setien, Eneko; Fernández-Reche, Jesús; Ariza, María Jesús; Álvarez-de-Lara, Mónica

2017-06-01

The tube type receivers are exposed to variable duration cyclic operating conditions, which can jeopardize its reliability, and make it hard to estimate its long term performance. The designers have to deal with this problem and estimate the receiver long term performance based on the poor available litterature and the data sheets of the material. In order to help the designer better estimate the performance of the receivers, in this paper the cyclic thermal aging is analyzed as a function of the cycle duration. For this purpose, coated and uncoated Inconel alloy 625 tubular samples, similar to those used in the commercial receivers, are cyclically aged with different thermal cycle duration. The aging of these samples has been analyzed by means of oxidation kinetics, microstructure examination and mechanical and optical properties. The effect of the thermal cycle duration is studied and discussed by comparison of the results.

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

1997-01-01

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic: Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Joseph T.; Ho, Andrew; Ma, Edward S. K.; Lee, Cheuk Kwong; Chu, Daniel K. W.; Ho, Po-Lai; Hung, Ivan F. N.; Ho, Lai Ming; Lin, Che Kit; Tsang, Thomas; Lo, Su-Vui; Lau, Yu-Lung; Leung, Gabriel M.

2011-01-01

Background In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity. Methods and Findings We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1–2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–29 y, and 30–59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–19 y, and 20–29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30–59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%–10%. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21990967

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013

PubMed Central

Cassini, Alessandro; Colzani, Edoardo; Pini, Alessandro; Mangen, Marie-Josee J; Plass, Dietrich; McDonald, Scott A; Maringhini, Guido; van Lier, Alies; Haagsma, Juanita A; Havelaar, Arie H; Kramarz, Piotr; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E

2018-01-01

Background and aims The Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25–1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control. PMID:29692315

Investigations of (Delta)14C, (delta)13C, and (delta)15N in vertebrae of white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) from the eastern North Pacific Ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, L A; Andrews, A H; Cailliet, G M

The white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) has a complex life history that is characterized by large scale movements and a highly variable diet. Estimates of age and growth for the white shark from the eastern North Pacific Ocean indicate they have a slow growth rate and a relatively high longevity. Age, growth, and longevity estimates useful for stock assessment and fishery models, however, require some form of validation. By counting vertebral growth band pairs, ages can be estimated, but because not all sharks deposit annual growth bands and many are not easily discernable, it is necessary to validate growth band periodicitymore » with an independent method. Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) age validation uses the discrete {sup 14}C signal produced from thermonuclear testing in the 1950s and 1960s that is retained in skeletal structures as a time-specific marker. Growth band pairs in vertebrae, estimated as annual and spanning the 1930s to 1990s, were analyzed for {Delta}{sup 14}C and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes ({delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N). The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of {sup 14}C age validation for a wide-ranging species with a complex life history and to use stable isotope measurements in vertebrae as a means of resolving complexity introduced into the {sup 14}C chronology by ontogenetic shifts in diet and habitat. Stable isotopes provided useful trophic position information; however, validation of age estimates was confounded by what may have been some combination of the dietary source of carbon to the vertebrae, large-scale movement patterns, and steep {sup 14}C gradients with depth in the eastern North Pacific Ocean.« less

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013.

PubMed

Cassini, Alessandro; Colzani, Edoardo; Pini, Alessandro; Mangen, Marie-Josee J; Plass, Dietrich; McDonald, Scott A; Maringhini, Guido; van Lier, Alies; Haagsma, Juanita A; Havelaar, Arie H; Kramarz, Piotr; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; On Behalf Of The BCoDE Consortium

2018-04-01

Background and aimsThe Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25-1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control.

The role of exposure on differences in driver death rates by gender and age: Results of a quasi-induced method on crash data in Spain.

PubMed

Pulido, José; Barrio, Gregorio; Hoyos, Juan; Jiménez-Mejías, Eladio; Martín-Rodríguez, María Del Mar; Houwing, Sjoerd; Lardelli-Claret, Pablo

2016-09-01

Part of the differences by age and gender in driver death rates from traffic injuries depends on the amount of exposure (km/year travelled). Unfortunately, direct indicators of exposure are not available in many countries. Our aim was to compare the age and gender differences in death rates with and without adjustment by exposure using a quasi-induced exposure approach in Spain, during 2004-2012. Crude and adjusted death rate ratios (CDRR and ADRR, respectively) were calculated for each age and gender group. To obtain the latter estimates, in accordance with quasi-exposure reasoning, the number of registered drivers was replaced by the number of non-infractor drivers, passively involved in collisions with another vehicle whose driver committed an infraction. 18-29 years and female drivers were chosen as the reference categories for age and gender. Striking differences were found between CDRR and ADRR estimates. When CDRR were estimated, we found the highest traffic mortality among the youngest drivers, except for females in non-urban roads. ADRR however showed the highest mortality among the oldest groups, especially in females, peaking among drivers >74 years in all types of roads. Regarding differences by gender, both estimates revealed higher traffic mortality in males, although the differences were much smaller when using ADRR. CDRR and ADRR for males tended to converge as age increased. Death risk from traffic injuries among drivers is clearly influenced by the amount of exposure. These findings further emphasize the need to obtain direct traffic exposure estimates by subgroups of drivers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The etiologic role of genetic and environmental factors in criminal behavior as determined from full- and half-sibling pairs: an evaluation of the validity of the twin method.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Lönn, S L; Maes, H H; Sundquist, J; Sundquist, K

2015-07-01

Twin studies have shown that criminal behavior (CB) is influenced by both genetic and shared environmental factors. Could these results be replicated using full-siblings and half-siblings? In 911 009 full-siblings reared together (FSRT), 41 872 half-siblings reared together (HSRT) and 52 590 half-siblings reared apart (HSRA), CB was assessed from the Swedish Crime Register. Modeling, including testing for age differences and rearing status, was performed using the OpenMx package. Five sibling models were fitted examining FSRT and HSRT 0-2 years different in age, and both FSRT and HSRT, and FSRT, HSRT and HSRA 0-10 years different in age with and without a specified shared environment indexing age differences. Heritability estimates for CB ranged from 33 to 55% in females and 39 to 56% in males, similar to those found in our prior twin study on the same population. Estimates for the shared environment varied from 1 to 14% in females and 10 to 23% in males, lower than those estimated in the twin study. The specified shared environment indexed by sibling age differences was significant in all models tested. Heritability estimates for CB from full- and half-siblings closely approximated those found from twins in the same population, validating the twin method. Shared environmental estimates were lower, suggesting the presence of shared environmental factors for CB specific to twins. When rearing status can be assessed, full- and half-siblings offer an additional method for assessing the role of genetic and environmental factors in complex disorders. However, age differences in siblings may need to be included in the models.

Demographic characteristics and health care use and expenditures by the aged in the United States: 1977-1984

PubMed Central

Waldo, Daniel R.; Lazenby, Helen C.

1984-01-01

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to the use and financing of health care for the aged. The authors of this article summarize much of the data related to that use, and present original estimates of health spending in 1984 on behalf of the aged. The estimates are designed to indicate trends in health expenditures and are tied to aggregate personal health care expenditures from the National Health Accounts. PMID:10310847

The Decreasing Prevalence of Nonrefractive Visual Impairment in Older Europeans: A Meta-analysis of Published and Unpublished Data.

PubMed

Delcourt, Cécile; Le Goff, Mélanie; von Hanno, Therese; Mirshahi, Alireza; Khawaja, Anthony P; Verhoeven, Virginie J M; Hogg, Ruth E; Anastosopoulos, Eleftherios; Cachulo, Maria Luz; Höhn, René; Wolfram, Christian; Bron, Alain; Miotto, Stefania; Carrière, Isabelle; Colijn, Johanna M; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H S; Evans, Jennifer; Nitsch, Dorothea; Founti, Panayiota; Yip, Jennifer L Y; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Creuzot-Garcher, Catherine; Silva, Rufino; Piermarocchi, Stefano; Topouzis, Fotis; Bertelsen, Geir; Foster, Paul J; Fletcher, Astrid; Klaver, Caroline C W; Korobelnik, Jean-François

2018-03-13

To estimate the prevalence of nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness in European persons 55 years of age and older. Few visual impairment and blindness prevalence estimates are available for the European population. In addition, many of the data collected in European population-based studies currently are unpublished and have not been included in previous estimates. Fourteen European population-based studies participating in the European Eye Epidemiology Consortium (n = 70 723) were included. Each study provided nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness prevalence estimates stratified by age (10-year strata) and gender. Nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness were defined as best-corrected visual acuity worse than 20/60 and 20/400 in the better eye, respectively. Using random effects meta-analysis, prevalence rates were estimated according to age, gender, geographical area, and period (1991-2006 and 2007-2012). Because no data were available for Central and Eastern Europe, population projections for numbers of affected people were estimated using Eurostat population estimates for European high-income countries in 2000 and 2010. The age-standardized prevalence of nonrefractive visual impairment in people 55 years of age or older decreased from 2.22% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-3.10) from 1991 through 2006 to 0.92% (95% CI, 0.42-1.42) from 2007 through 2012. It strongly increased with age in both periods (up to 15.69% and 4.39% in participants 85 years of age or older from 1991 through 2006 and from 2007 through 2012, respectively). Age-standardized prevalence of visual impairment tended to be higher in women than men from 1991 through 2006 (2.67% vs. 1.88%), but not from 2007 through 2012 (0.87% vs. 0.88%). No differences were observed between northern, western, and southern regions of Europe. The projected numbers of affected older inhabitants in European high-income countries decreased from 2.5 million affected individuals in 2000 to 1.2 million in 2010. Of those, 584 000 were blind in 2000, in comparison with 170 000 who were blind in 2010. Despite the increase in the European older population, our study indicated that the number of visually impaired people has decreased in European high-income countries in the last 20 years. This may be the result of major improvements in eye care and prevention, the decreasing prevalence of eye diseases, or both. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Ophthalmology. All rights reserved.

Brain properties predict proximity to symptom onset in sporadic Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Vogel, Jacob W; Vachon-Presseau, Etienne; Pichet Binette, Alexa; Tam, Angela; Orban, Pierre; La Joie, Renaud; Savard, Mélissa; Picard, Cynthia; Poirier, Judes; Bellec, Pierre; Breitner, John C S; Villeneuve, Sylvia

2018-06-01

See Tijms and Visser (doi:10.1093/brain/awy113) for a scientific commentary on this article.Alzheimer's disease is preceded by a lengthy 'preclinical' stage spanning many years, during which subtle brain changes occur in the absence of overt cognitive symptoms. Predicting when the onset of disease symptoms will occur is an unsolved challenge in individuals with sporadic Alzheimer's disease. In individuals with autosomal dominant genetic Alzheimer's disease, the age of symptom onset is similar across generations, allowing the prediction of individual onset times with some accuracy. We extend this concept to persons with a parental history of sporadic Alzheimer's disease to test whether an individual's symptom onset age can be informed by the onset age of their affected parent, and whether this estimated onset age can be predicted using only MRI. Structural and functional MRIs were acquired from 255 ageing cognitively healthy subjects with a parental history of sporadic Alzheimer's disease from the PREVENT-AD cohort. Years to estimated symptom onset was calculated as participant age minus age of parental symptom onset. Grey matter volume was extracted from T1-weighted images and whole-brain resting state functional connectivity was evaluated using degree count. Both modalities were summarized using a 444-region cortical-subcortical atlas. The entire sample was divided into training (n = 138) and testing (n = 68) sets. Within the training set, individuals closer to or beyond their parent's symptom onset demonstrated reduced grey matter volume and altered functional connectivity, specifically in regions known to be vulnerable in Alzheimer's disease. Machine learning was used to identify a weighted set of imaging features trained to predict years to estimated symptom onset. This feature set alone significantly predicted years to estimated symptom onset in the unseen testing data. This model, using only neuroimaging features, significantly outperformed a similar model instead trained with cognitive, genetic, imaging and demographic features used in a traditional clinical setting. We next tested if these brain properties could be generalized to predict time to clinical progression in a subgroup of 26 individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, who eventually converted either to mild cognitive impairment or to Alzheimer's dementia. The feature set trained on years to estimated symptom onset in the PREVENT-AD predicted variance in time to clinical conversion in this separate longitudinal dataset. Adjusting for participant age did not impact any of the results. These findings demonstrate that years to estimated symptom onset or similar measures can be predicted from brain features and may help estimate presymptomatic disease progression in at-risk individuals.

Estimating GFR using Serum Cystatin C Alone and in Combination with Serum Creatinine: A Pooled Analysis of 3418 Individuals with CKD

PubMed Central

Stevens, Lesley A; Coresh, Josef; Schmid, Christopher H; Feldman, Harold I.; Froissart, Marc; Kusek, John; Rossert, Jerome; Van Lente, Frederick; Bruce, Robert D.; Zhang, Yaping (Lucy); Greene, Tom; Levey, Andrew S

2008-01-01

Background Serum cystatin C (Scys) has been proposed as a potential replacement for serum creatinine (Scr) in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation. We report development and evaluation of GFR estimating equations using Scys alone and Scys, Scr or both with demographic variables. Study Design Test of diagnostic accuracy. Setting and Participants Participants screened for three chronic kidney disease (CKD) studies in the US (n=2980) and a clinical population in Paris, France (n=438) Reference Test Measured GFR (mGFR). Index Test Estimated GFR using the four new equations based on Scys alone, Scys, Scr or both with age, sex and race. New equations were developed using regression with log GFR as the outcome in 2/3 data from US studies. Internal validation was performed in remaining 1/3 of data from US CKD studies; external validation was performed in the Paris study. Measurements GFR was measured using urinary clearance of 125I-iothalamate in the US studies and chromium-ethylenediaminetetraacetate (51Cr-EDTA) in the Paris study. Scys was measured by Dade Behring assay, standardized Scr. Results Mean mGFR, Scr and Scys were 48 (5th–95th percentile 15–95) ml/min/1.73m2 2.1 mg/dL and 1.8 mg/L respectively. For the new equations, the coefficients for age, sex and race were significant in the equation with Scys but 2 to 4 fold smaller than in the equation with Scr. Measures of performance among new equations were consistent across development, internal and external validation datasets. Percent of eGFR within 30% of mGFR for equations based on Scys alone, Scys, Scr or both with age, sex and race were 81, 83, 85, and 89%, respectively. The equation using Scys alone yields estimates with small biases in age, sex and race subgroups, which are improved in equations including these variables. Limitations Study population composed mainly of patients with CKD. Conclusions Scys alone provides GFR estimates that are nearly as accurate as Scr adjusted for age, sex and race thus providing an alternative GFR estimate that is not linked to muscle mass. An equation including Scys in combination with Scr, age, sex and race provide most accurate estimates. PMID:18295055

Estimating the under-reporting of norovirus illness in Germany utilizing enhanced awareness of diarrhoea during a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O104:H4 in 2011--a time series analysis.

PubMed

Bernard, Helen; Werber, Dirk; Höhle, Michael

2014-03-01

Laboratory-confirmed norovirus illness is reportable in Germany since 2001. Reported case numbers are known to be undercounts, and a valid estimate of the actual incidence in Germany does not exist. An increase of reported norovirus illness was observed simultaneously to a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O104:H4 in Germany in 2011--likely due to enhanced (but not complete) awareness of diarrhoea at that time. We aimed at estimating age- and sex-specific factors of that excess, which should be interpretable as (minimal) under-reporting factors of norovirus illness in Germany. We used national reporting data on laboratory-confirmed norovirus illness in Germany from calendar week 31 in 2003 through calendar week 30 in 2012. A negative binomial time series regression model was used to describe the weekly counts in 8∙2 age-sex strata while adjusting for secular trend and seasonality. Overall as well as age- and sex-specific factors for the excess were estimated by including additional terms (either an O104:H4 outbreak period indicator or a triple interaction term between outbreak period, age and sex) in the model. We estimated the overall under-reporting factor to be 1.76 (95% CI 1.28-2.41) for the first three weeks of the outbreak before the outbreak vehicle was publicly communicated. Highest under-reporting factors were here estimated for 20-29 year-old males (2.88, 95% CI 2.01-4.11) and females (2.67, 95% CI 1.87-3.79). Under-reporting was substantially lower in persons aged <10 years and 70 years or older. These are the first estimates of (minimal) under-reporting factors for norovirus illness in Germany. They provide a starting point for a more detailed investigation of the relationship between actual incidence and reporting incidence of norovirus illness in Germany.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Background: Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Aim: Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Materials and Methods: Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. Results: There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Conclusion: Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis. PMID:26005298

Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population.

PubMed

Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Caldas, Inês-Morais; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

2014-12-01

The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament.

Forensic individual age estimation with DNA: From initial approaches to methylation tests.

PubMed

Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Lareu, M V

2017-07-01

Individual age estimation is a key factor in forensic science analysis that can provide very useful information applicable to criminal, legal, and anthropological investigations. Forensic age inference was initially based on morphological inspection or radiography and only later began to adopt molecular approaches. However, a lack of accuracy or technical problems hampered the introduction of these DNA-based methodologies in casework analysis. A turning point occurred when the epigenetic signature of DNA methylation was observed to gradually change during an individual´s lifespan. In the last four years, the number of publications reporting DNA methylation age-correlated changes has gradually risen and the forensic community now has a range of age methylation tests applicable to forensic casework. Most forensic age predictor models have been developed based on blood DNA samples, but additional tissues are now also being explored. This review assesses the most widely adopted genes harboring methylation sites, detection technologies, statistical age-predictive analyses, and potential causes of variation in age estimates. Despite the need for further work to improve predictive accuracy and establishing a broader range of tissues for which tests can analyze the most appropriate methylation sites, several forensic age predictors have now been reported that provide consistency in their prediction accuracies (predictive error of ±4 years); this makes them compelling tools with the potential to contribute key information to help guide criminal investigations. Copyright © 2017 Central Police University.

A Kinematic Description of the Temporal Characteristics of Jaw Motion for Early Chewing: Preliminary Findings

PubMed Central

Wilson, Erin M.; Green, Jordan R.; Weismer, Gary

2013-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to describe age- and consistency-related changes in the temporal characteristics of chewing in typically-developing children between 4 – 35 months of age and adults using high-resolution optically-based motion capture technology. Method Data were collected from a total of 60 participants (48 children, 12 adults) across five age ranges (beginners, 7-months, 12-months, 35-months, and adults); each age group included 12 participants. Three different food consistencies were trialed as appropriate. The data were analyzed to assess changes in chewing rate, chewing sequence duration, and a measure of the estimated number of chewing cycles. Results The results revealed both age- and consistency-related changes in chewing rate, sequence duration, and the estimated number of chewing cycles with consistency differences affecting masticatory timing in children as young as 7-months of age. Chewing rate varied as a function of age and consistency and chewing sequence duration was shorter for adults than children regardless of consistency type. Additionally, the results from the estimated number of chewing cycles measure suggests that chewing effectiveness increased with age; this measure was also dependent on consistency type. Conclusions The findings suggest that the different temporal chewing variables follow distinct developmental trajectories and are consistency-dependent in children as young as 7-months of age. Clinical implications are detailed. PMID:22223889

Manipulating the reported age in earliest memories.

PubMed

Wessel, Ineke; Schweig, Theresa; Huntjens, Rafaële J C

2017-11-02

Previous work suggests that the estimated age in adults' earliest autobiographical memories depends on age information implied by the experimental context [e.g., Kingo, O. S., Bohn, A., & Krøjgaard, P. (2013). Warm-up questions on early childhood memories affect the reported age of earliest memories in late adolescence. Memory, 21(2), 280-284. doi: 10.1080/09658211.2012.729598 ] and that the age in decontextualised snippets of memory is younger than in more complete accounts (i.e., event memories [Bruce, D., Wilcox-O'Hearn, L. A., Robinson, J. A., Phillips-Grant, K., Francis, L., & Smith, M. C. (2005). Fragment memories mark the end of childhood amnesia. Memory & Cognition, 33(4), 567-576. doi: 10.3758/BF03195324 ]). We examined the malleability of the estimated age in undergraduates' earliest memories and its relation with memory quality. In Study 1 (n = 141), vignettes referring to events happening at age 2 rendered earlier reported ages than examples referring to age 6. Exploratory analyses suggested that event memories were more sensitive to the age manipulation than memories representing a single, isolated scene (i.e., snapshots). In Study 2 (n = 162), asking self-relevant and public-event knowledge questions about participants' preschool years prior to retrieval yielded comparable average estimated ages. Both types of semantic knowledge questions rendered earlier memories than a no-age control task. Overall, the reported age in snapshots was younger than in event memories. However, age-differences between memory types across conditions were not statistically significant. Together, the results add to the growing literature indicating that the average age in earliest memories is not as fixed as previously thought.

A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana)

PubMed Central

Stansfield, Fiona J.

2015-01-01

The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These ‘Age Reference Lines’ were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70–75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

Systematic Review of Prevalence of Young Child Overweight and Obesity in the United States-Affiliated Pacific Region Compared With the 48 Contiguous States: The Children's Healthy Living Program.

PubMed

Novotny, Rachel; Fialkowski, Marie Kainoa; Li, Fenfang; Paulino, Yvette; Vargo, Donald; Jim, Rally; Coleman, Patricia; Bersamin, Andrea; Nigg, Claudio R; Leon Guerrero, Rachael T; Deenik, Jonathan; Kim, Jang Ho; Wilkens, Lynne R

2015-01-01

We estimated overweight and obesity (OWOB) prevalence of children in US-Affiliated Pacific jurisdictions (USAP) of the Children's Healthy Living Program compared with the contiguous United States. We searched peer-reviewed literature and government reports (January 2001-April 2014) for OWOB prevalence of children aged 2 to 8 years in the USAP and found 24 sources. We used 3 articles from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys for comparison. Mixed models regressed OWOB prevalence on an age polynomial to compare trends (n = 246 data points). In the USAP, OWOB prevalence estimates increased with age, from 21% at age 2 years to 39% at age 8 years, increasing markedly at age 5 years; the proportion obese increased from 10% at age 2 years to 23% at age 8 years. The highest prevalence was in American Samoa and Guam.

Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, Niel; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

1998-01-01

Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improve-ments in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR?s) for the study area. The HGMR?s are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC?s) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additi-onal data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water discharging from 30 of the 46 springs sampled were less than 20 years, including 5 that were 'modern' (0-4 years). Four samples had apparent ages of 22 to 34 years, and two others from thermal springs were 40 years or greater. The remaining ten samples were contaminated with local sources of CFC and could not be dated. Nitrate concentrations and nitrate delta 15 nitrogen (15N) values in water from many springs are similar to those in shallow ground water beneath fertilized fields, and some values are high enough to indicate a probable source from animal-waste components. The nitrogen data reported here highlight the significance of the springs sampled during this study as pathways for nutrient transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Ground-water samples were collected from springs during an unusually high flow period and thus may not be representative of low base-flow conditions. Residence times estimated from plausible ranges of aquifer properties and results of previous age-dating analyses generally corroborate the apparent-age analysis made in the current study and suggests that some residence times could be much longer. The shortest residence times tend to be in the Blue Ridge and northern carbonate areas; however, the data are preliminary and not appropriate for statistical tests of significance or variance. Because the age distributions in the aquifer discharging to the springs are not known, and because the apparent ages of water from the springs are based on various com-binations of CFC criteria, the apparent ages and calculated residence times are compared for illustrative purposes but are considered preliminary until further work is accomplished.

Nuclear constraints on the age of the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schramm, D. N.

1983-01-01

A review is made of how one can use nuclear physics to put rather stringent limits on the age of the universe and thus the cosmic distance scale. The age can be estimated to a fair degree of accuracy. No single measurement of the time since the Big Bang gives a specific, unambiguous age. There are several methods that together fix the age with surprising precision. In particular, there are three totally independent techniques for estimating an age and a fourth technique which involves finding consistency of the other three in the framework of the standard Big Bang cosmological model. The three independent methods are: cosmological dynamics, the age of the oldest stars, and radioactive dating. This paper concentrates on the third of the three methods, and the consistency technique. Previously announced in STAR as N83-34868

Age determination by spheno-occipital synchondrosis fusion in Central Indian population.

PubMed

Pate, Rajeshwar Sambhaji; Tingne, Chaitanya Vidyadhar; Dixit, Pradeep Gangadhar

2018-02-01

The spheno occipital suture synchondrosis is a vital contributor to adolescent and adult age estimation in that it can provide an upper or lower age bound depending on its state of fusion. The present study evaluates the utility of the spheno-occipital suture fusion in age estimation of the Central Indian population. The sample includes 198 (117 males and 81 females) cadavers aged between 8 to 26 years. Grading was done using Mitra-Akhlaghi Scale as - Open, Semi closed and Closed. Our study demonstrates that a significant linear correlation exists between the age of an individual and spheno-occipital suture closure for both the sexes and observation of the degree of fusion of this single suture allows the prediction of age in mature individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Screening for prostate cancer: estimating the magnitude of overdetection

PubMed Central

McGregor, M; Hanley, J A; Boivin, J F; McLean, R G

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: No randomized controlled trial of prostate cancer screening has been reported and none is likely to be completed in the near future. In the absence of direct evidence, the decision to screen must therefore be based on estimates of benefits and risks. The main risk of screening is overdetection--the detection of cancer that, if left untreated, would not cause death. In this study the authors estimate the level of overdetection that might result from annual screening of men aged 50-70. METHODS: The annual rate of lethal screen-detectable cancer (detectable cancer that would prove fatal before age 85 if left untreated) was calculated from the observed prostate cancer mortality rate in Quebec; the annual rate of all cases of screen-detectable prostate cancer was calculated from 2 recent screening studies. RESULTS: The annual rate of lethal screen-detectable prostate cancer was estimated to be 1.3 per 1000 men. The annual rate of all cases of screen-detectable prostate cancer was estimated to be 8.0 per 1000 men. The estimated case-fatality rate among men up to 85 years of age was 16% (1.3/8.0) (sensitivity analysis 13% to 22%). INTERPRETATION: Of every 100 men with screen-detected prostate cancer, only 16 on average (13 to 22) could have their lives extended by surgery, since the prostate cancer would not cause death before age 85 in the remaining 84 (78 to 87). PMID:9861205

Challenges in the Estimation of the Annual Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Children Aged Less Than 5 Years.

PubMed

Khan, P Y; Glynn, Judith R; Mzembe, T; Mulawa, D; Chiumya, R; Crampin, Amelia C; Kranzer, Katharina; Fielding, Katherine L

2017-10-15

Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012-2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%-11.5% at ages <2 years and 0.8%-3.3% at ages 2-4 years. The Rust and Thomas method was the only method to give a lower estimate in the younger age group (0.7% vs 0.8%), suggesting that it was the only method that adjusted appropriately for the marked effect of BCG-attributable induration in the very young. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Time-to-contact estimation errors among older drivers with useful field of view impairments.

PubMed

Rusch, Michelle L; Schall, Mark C; Lee, John D; Dawson, Jeffrey D; Edwards, Samantha V; Rizzo, Matthew

2016-10-01

Previous research indicates that useful field of view (UFOV) decline affects older driver performance. In particular, elderly drivers have difficulty estimating oncoming vehicle time-to-contact (TTC). The objective of this study was to evaluate how UFOV impairments affect TTC estimates in elderly drivers deciding when to make a left turn across oncoming traffic. TTC estimates were obtained from 64 middle-aged (n=17, age=46±6years) and older (n=37, age=75±6years) licensed drivers with a range of UFOV abilities using interactive scenarios in a fixed-base driving simulator. Each driver was situated in an intersection to turn left across oncoming traffic approaching and disappearing at differing distances (1.5, 3, or 5s) and speeds (45, 55, or 65mph). Drivers judged when each oncoming vehicle would collide with them if they were to turn left. Findings showed that TTC estimates across all drivers, on average, were most accurate for oncoming vehicles travelling at the highest velocities and least accurate for those travelling at the slowest velocities. Drivers with the worst UFOV scores had the least accurate TTC estimates, especially for slower oncoming vehicles. Results suggest age-related UFOV decline impairs older driver judgment of TTC with oncoming vehicles in safety-critical left-turn situations. Our results are compatible with national statistics on older driver crash proclivity at intersections. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V.; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

2014-01-01

In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Conclusion: Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended. PMID:25177143

Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method.

PubMed

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

2014-09-01

In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

Evaluation of tropically-adapted straightbred and crossbred beef cattle: Heifer age and size at first conception and characteristics of their first calves

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objectives of this work were to estimate genetic effects for age and size at estimated time of first conception, and temperament in straightbred and crossbred heifers (n = 554) produced from Romosinuano, Brahman, and Angus cattle, and to evaluate first parturition performance of heifers, includi...

Determining site index accurately in even-aged stands

Treesearch

Gayne G. Erdmann; Ralph M., Jr. Peterson

1992-01-01

Good site index estimates are necessary for intensive forest management. To get tree age used in determining site index, increment cores are commonly used. The diffuse-porous rings of northern hardwoods, though, are difficult to count in cores, so many site index estimates are imprecise. Also, measuring the height of standing trees is more difficult and less accurate...

Age-Related Changes in Children's Executive Functions and Strategy Selection: A Study in Computational Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemaire, Patrick; Lecacheur, Mireille

2011-01-01

Third, fifth, and seventh graders selected the best strategy (rounding up or rounding down) for estimating answers to two-digit addition problems. Executive function measures were collected for each individual. Data showed that (a) children's skill at both strategy selection and execution improved with age and (b) increased efficiency in executive…

Childhood Secondhand Smoke Exposure and ADHD-Attributable Costs to the Health and Education System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Max, Wendy; Sung, Hai-Yen; Shi, Yanling

2014-01-01

Background: Children exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) have higher rates of behavioral and cognitive effects, including attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but the costs to the health care and education systems have not been estimated. We estimate these costs for school-aged children aged 5-15. Methods: The relative risk (RR) of ADHD…

Risk Factors for Learning-Related Behavior Problems at 24 Months of Age: Population-Based Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Paul L.; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Maczuga, Steven

2009-01-01

We used a large sample of singleton children to estimate the effects of socioeconomic status (SES), race/ethnicity, gender, additional socio-demographics, gestational and birth factors, and parenting on children's risk for learning-related behavior problems at 24 months of age. We investigated to what extent these factors increased a child's risk…