Sample records for age estimation based

  1. Facial Asymmetry-Based Age Group Estimation: Role in Recognizing Age-Separated Face Images.

    PubMed

    Sajid, Muhammad; Taj, Imtiaz Ahmad; Bajwa, Usama Ijaz; Ratyal, Naeem Iqbal

    2018-04-23

    Face recognition aims to establish the identity of a person based on facial characteristics. On the other hand, age group estimation is the automatic calculation of an individual's age range based on facial features. Recognizing age-separated face images is still a challenging research problem due to complex aging processes involving different types of facial tissues, skin, fat, muscles, and bones. Certain holistic and local facial features are used to recognize age-separated face images. However, most of the existing methods recognize face images without incorporating the knowledge learned from age group estimation. In this paper, we propose an age-assisted face recognition approach to handle aging variations. Inspired by the observation that facial asymmetry is an age-dependent intrinsic facial feature, we first use asymmetric facial dimensions to estimate the age group of a given face image. Deeply learned asymmetric facial features are then extracted for face recognition using a deep convolutional neural network (dCNN). Finally, we integrate the knowledge learned from the age group estimation into the face recognition algorithm using the same dCNN. This integration results in a significant improvement in the overall performance compared to using the face recognition algorithm alone. The experimental results on two large facial aging datasets, the MORPH and FERET sets, show that the proposed age group estimation based on the face recognition approach yields superior performance compared to some existing state-of-the-art methods. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  2. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  3. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

    PubMed

    Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

  4. Applications of physiological bases of ageing to forensic sciences. Estimation of age-at-death.

    PubMed

    C Zapico, Sara; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2013-03-01

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main challenges in forensic sciences since it contributes to the identification of individuals. There are many anthropological techniques to estimate the age at death in children and adults. However, in adults this methodology is less accurate and requires population specific references. For that reason, new methodologies have been developed. Biochemical methods are based on the natural process of ageing, which induces different biochemical changes that lead to alterations in cells and tissues. In this review, we describe different attempts to estimate the age in adults based on these changes. Chemical approaches imply modifications in molecules or accumulation of some products. Molecular biology approaches analyze the modifications in DNA and chromosomes. Although the most accurate technique appears to be aspartic acid racemization, it is important to take into account the other techniques because the forensic context and the human remains available will determine the possibility to apply one or another methodology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Service Lifetime Estimation of EPDM Rubber Based on Accelerated Aging Tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jie; Li, Xiangbo; Xu, Likun; He, Tao

    2017-04-01

    Service lifetime of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber at room temperature (25 °C) was estimated based on accelerated aging tests. The study followed sealing stress loss on compressed cylinder samples by compression stress relaxation methods. The results showed that the cylinder samples of EPDM can quickly reach the physical relaxation equilibrium by using the over-compression method. The non-Arrhenius behavior occurred at the lowest aging temperature. A significant linear relationship was observed between compression set values and normalized stress decay results, and the relationship was not related to the ambient temperature of aging. It was estimated that the sealing stress loss in view of practical application would occur after around 86.8 years at 25 °C. The estimations at 25 °C based on the non-Arrhenius behavior were in agreement with compression set data from storage aging tests in natural environment.

  6. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  7. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  8. A new age-based formula for estimating weight of Korean children.

    PubMed

    Park, Jungho; Kwak, Young Ho; Kim, Do Kyun; Jung, Jae Yun; Lee, Jin Hee; Jang, Hye Young; Kim, Hahn Bom; Hong, Ki Jeong

    2012-09-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new age-based formula for estimating body weights of Korean children. We obtained body weight and age data from a survey conducted in 2005 by the Korean Pediatric Society that was performed to establish normative values for Korean children. Children aged 0-14 were enrolled, and they were divided into three groups according to age: infants (<12 months), preschool-aged (1-4 years) and school-aged children (5-14 years). Seventy-five percent of all subjects were randomly selected to make a derivation set. Regression analysis was performed in order to produce equations that predict the weight from the age for each group. The linear equations derived from this analysis were simplified to create a weight estimating formula for Korean children. This formula was then validated using the remaining 25% of the study subjects with mean percentage error and absolute error. To determine whether a new formula accurately predicts actual weights of Korean children, we also compared this new formula to other weight estimation methods (APLS, Shann formula, Leffler formula, Nelson formula and Broselow tape). A total of 124,095 children's data were enrolled, and 19,854 (16.0%), 40,612 (32.7%) and 63,629 (51.3%) were classified as infants, preschool-aged and school-aged groups, respectively. Three equations, (age in months+9)/2, 2×(age in years)+9 and 4×(age in years)-1 were derived for infants, pre-school and school-aged groups, respectively. When these equations were applied to the validation set, the actual average weight of those children was 0.4kg heavier than our estimated weight (95% CI=0.37-0.43, p<0.001). The mean percentage error of our model (+0.9%) was lower than APLS (-11.5%), Shann formula (-8.6%), Leffler formula (-1.7%), Nelson formula (-10.0%), Best Guess formula (+5.0%) and Broselow tape (-4.8%) for all age groups. We developed and validated a simple formula to estimate body weight from the age of Korean

  9. A comparison of LMP-based and ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age using linked California livebirth and prenatal screening records.

    PubMed

    Dietz, Patricia M; England, Lucinda J; Callaghan, William M; Pearl, Michelle; Wier, Megan L; Kharrazi, Martin

    2007-09-01

    Although early ultrasound (<20 weeks' gestation) systematically underestimates the gestational age of smaller fetuses by approximately 1-2 days, this bias is relatively small compared with the large error introduced by last menstrual period (LMP) estimates of gestation, as evidenced by the number of implausible birthweight-for-gestational age. To characterise this misclassification, we compared gestational age estimates based on LMP from California birth certificates with those based on early ultrasound from a California linked Statewide Expanded Alpha-fetoprotein Screening Program (XAFP). The final sample comprised 165 908 women. Birthweight distributions were plotted by gestational age; sensitivity and positive predictive value for preterm rates according to LMP were calculated using ultrasound as the 'gold standard'. For gestational ages 20-27 and 28-31 weeks, the LMP-based birthweight distributions were bimodal, whereas the ultrasound-based distributions were unimodal, but had long right tails. At 32-36 weeks, the LMP distribution was wider, flatter, and shifted to the right, compared with the ultrasound distribution. LMP vs. ultrasound estimates were, respectively, 8.7% vs. 7.9% preterm (<37 weeks), 81.2% vs. 91.0% term (37-41 weeks), and 10.1% vs. 1.1% post-term (>or=42 weeks). The sensitivity of the LMP-based preterm birth estimate was 64.3%, and the positive predictive value was 58.7%. Overall, 17.2% of the records had estimates with an absolute difference of >14 days. The groups most likely to have inconsistent gestational age estimates included African American and Hispanic women, younger and less-educated women, and those who entered prenatal care after the second month of pregnancy. In conclusion, we found substantial misclassification of LMP-based gestational age. The 2003 revised US Standard Certificate of Live Birth includes a new gestational age item, the obstetric estimate. It will be important to assess whether this estimate addresses the problems

  10. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in elastin from the yellow ligaments.

    PubMed

    Ritz-Timme, S; Laumeier, I; Collins, M

    2003-04-01

    The yellow ligaments of the spine are characterized by an exceptionally high content of elastin, a protein with a proved longevity in several human tissues. This unique biochemical composition suggested a suitability of yellow ligaments for age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization (AAR), which was tested by determination of AAR in total tissue specimens and in purified elastin from yellow ligaments of individuals of known age. AAR was found to increase with age in both sample sets. The purified elastin samples exhibited a much faster kinetics than the total tissue, with ca. 3.7-4.6-fold higher apparent rates. The relationship between AAR and age was much closer in the purified elastin samples ( r=0.96-0.99) and it can therefore be used as a basis for biochemical age estimation. The analysis of total tissue samples cannot be recommended since the AAR values can be strongly influenced even by slight, histologically non-detectable variations in the collagen content. Age estimation based on AAR in purified elastin from yellow ligaments may be a valuable additional tool in the identification of unidentified cadavers, especially in cases where other methods cannot be applied (e.g. no available teeth, body parts).

  11. Estimating age from the pubic symphysis: A new component-based system.

    PubMed

    Dudzik, Beatrix; Langley, Natalie R

    2015-12-01

    The os pubis is one of the most widely used areas of the skeleton for age estimation. Current pubic symphyseal aging methods for adults combine the morphology associated with the developmental changes that occur into the mid-30s with the degenerative changes that span the latter portion of the age spectrum. The most popular methods are phase-based; however, the definitions currently used to estimate age intervals may not be adequately defined and/or accurately understood by burgeoning researchers and seasoned practitioners alike. This study identifies patterns of growth and maturation in the pubic symphysis to derive more precise age estimates for individuals under 40 years of age. Emphasis is placed on young adults to provide more informative descriptions of epiphyseal changes associated with the final phases of skeletal maturation before degeneration commences. This study investigated macroscopic changes in forensically relevant modern U.S. samples of known age, sex, and ancestry from the Maricopa County Forensic Science Center in Phoenix, Arizona as well as donated individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic and Donated Collections at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (n=237). Age-related traits at locations with ontogenetic and biomechanical relevance were broken into components and scored. The components included the pubic tubercle, the superior apex of the face, the ventral and dorsal demifaces, and the ventral and dorsal symphyseal margins. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate the transition ages between the morphological states of each component. The categorical scores and transition analysis ages were subjected to multinomial logistic regression and decision tree analysis to derive accurate age interval estimates. Results of these analyses were used to construct a decision tree-style flow chart for practitioner use. High inter-rater agreement of the individual component traits (linear weighted kappa values ≥0.665 for all traits in the

  12. Combining wrist age and third molars in forensic age estimation: how to calculate the joint age estimate and its error rate in age diagnostics.

    PubMed

    Gelbrich, Bianca; Frerking, Carolin; Weiss, Sandra; Schwerdt, Sebastian; Stellzig-Eisenhauer, Angelika; Tausche, Eve; Gelbrich, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Forensic age estimation in living adolescents is based on several methods, e.g. the assessment of skeletal and dental maturation. Combination of several methods is mandatory, since age estimates from a single method are too imprecise due to biological variability. The correlation of the errors of the methods being combined must be known to calculate the precision of combined age estimates. To examine the correlation of the errors of the hand and the third molar method and to demonstrate how to calculate the combined age estimate. Clinical routine radiographs of the hand and dental panoramic images of 383 patients (aged 7.8-19.1 years, 56% female) were assessed. Lack of correlation (r = -0.024, 95% CI = -0.124 to + 0.076, p = 0.64) allows calculating the combined age estimate as the weighted average of the estimates from hand bones and third molars. Combination improved the standard deviations of errors (hand = 0.97, teeth = 1.35 years) to 0.79 years. Uncorrelated errors of the age estimates obtained from both methods allow straightforward determination of the common estimate and its variance. This is also possible when reference data for the hand and the third molar method are established independently from each other, using different samples.

  13. Paleoglaciation of the Tibetan Plateau based on exposure ages and ELA depression estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyman, Jakob

    2014-05-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds a major part of all glaciers outside the polar regions and an ample record of past glaciations. The glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau has attracted significant interest, with a large body of research investigating the extent, timing, and climatic implications of past glaciations. Here I present an extensive compilation of exposure ages and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates from glacial deposits across the Tibetan Plateau to address the timing and degree of past glaciations. I compiled Be-10 exposure age data for a total of 1877 samples and recalculated exposure ages using an updated (lower) global Be-10 production rate. All samples were organized in groups of individual glacial deposits where each deposit represents one glacial event enabling evaluation of the exposure age clustering. For each glacial deposit I estimated the ELA depression based on a simple toe to headwall ratio approach using Google Earth. To discriminate good (well-clustered) from poor (scattered) exposure age groups the glacial deposits were divided into three groups based on exposure age clustering. A major part of the glacial deposits have scattered exposure ages affected by prior or incomplete exposure, complicating exposure age interpretations. The well-clustered exposure age groups are primarily from mountain ranges along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau with a main peak in age between 10 and 30 ka, indicating glacial advances during the global last glacial maximum (LGM). A large number of exposure ages older than 30 ka indicates maximum glaciation predating the LGM, but the exposure age scatter generally prohibits accurate definition of the glacial chronology. The ELA depression estimates scatter significantly, but a major part is remarkably low. Average ELA depressions of 333 ± 191 m for the LGM and 494 ± 280 m for the pre-LGM exposure indicate restricted glacier expansion and limited glacial cooling.

  14. A learning framework for age rank estimation based on face images with scattering transform.

    PubMed

    Chang, Kuang-Yu; Chen, Chu-Song

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a cost-sensitive ordinal hyperplanes ranking algorithm for human age estimation based on face images. The proposed approach exploits relative-order information among the age labels for rank prediction. In our approach, the age rank is obtained by aggregating a series of binary classification results, where cost sensitivities among the labels are introduced to improve the aggregating performance. In addition, we give a theoretical analysis on designing the cost of individual binary classifier so that the misranking cost can be bounded by the total misclassification costs. An efficient descriptor, scattering transform, which scatters the Gabor coefficients and pooled with Gaussian smoothing in multiple layers, is evaluated for facial feature extraction. We show that this descriptor is a generalization of conventional bioinspired features and is more effective for face-based age inference. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art age estimation approaches.

  15. Combining facial dynamics with appearance for age estimation.

    PubMed

    Dibeklioglu, Hamdi; Alnajar, Fares; Ali Salah, Albert; Gevers, Theo

    2015-06-01

    Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We propose a method to extract and use dynamic features for age estimation, using a person's smile. Our approach is tested on a large, gender-balanced database with 400 subjects, with an age range between 8 and 76. In addition, we introduce a new database on posed disgust expressions with 324 subjects in the same age range, and evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach when used with another expression. State-of-the-art appearance-based age estimation methods from the literature are implemented as baseline. We demonstrate that for each of these methods, the addition of the proposed dynamic features results in statistically significant improvement. We further propose a novel hierarchical age estimation architecture based on adaptive age grouping. We test our approach extensively, including an exploration of spontaneous versus posed smile dynamics, and gender-specific age estimation. We show that using spontaneity information reduces the mean absolute error by up to 21%, advancing the state of the art for facial age estimation.

  16. Age estimation of living Indian individuals based on aspartic acid racemization from tooth biopsy specimen

    PubMed Central

    Rastogi, Manu; Logani, Ajay; Shah, Naseem; Kumar, Abhishek; Arora, Saurabh

    2017-01-01

    Background: Age estimation in living individuals is imperative to amicably settle civil and criminal disputes. A biochemical method based on amino acid racemization was evaluated for age estimation of living Indian individuals. Design: Caries-free maxillary/mandibular premolar teeth (n = 90) were collected from participants with age proof documents and divided into predefined nine age groups. Materials and Methods: Dentine biopsy from the labial aspect of the tooth crown was taken with an indigenously developed microtrephine. The samples were processed and subjected to gas chromatography. Dextrorotatory:levorotatory ratios were calculated, and a regression equation was formulated. Results: Across all age groups, an error of 0 ± 4 years between protein racemization age and chronological age was observed. Conclusion: Aspartic acid racemization from dentine biopsy samples could be a viable and accurate technique for age estimation of living individuals who have attained a state of skeletal maturity. PMID:29263613

  17. Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

    2012-11-30

    Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

  18. Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G.

    2017-01-01

    Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire. PMID:28696282

  19. Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies.

    PubMed

    Diekmann, Yoan; Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Page, Abigail E; Chaudhary, Nikhil; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G

    2017-08-01

    Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire.

  20. Forensic age estimation based on development of third molars: a staging technique for magnetic resonance imaging.

    PubMed

    De Tobel, J; Phlypo, I; Fieuws, S; Politis, C; Verstraete, K L; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    discern minors from adults was better for males than for females, with specificities of 96% and 73% respectively. Age estimations based on the proposed staging method for third molars on MRI showed comparable reproducibility and performance as the established methods based on radiographs.

  1. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    PubMed

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

  2. Validity and reliability of dental age estimation of teeth root translucency based on digital luminance determination.

    PubMed

    Ramsthaler, Frank; Kettner, Mattias; Verhoff, Marcel A

    2014-01-01

    In forensic anthropological casework, estimating age-at-death is key to profiling unknown skeletal remains. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability of a new, simple, fast, and inexpensive digital odontological method for age-at-death estimation. The method is based on the original Lamendin method, which is a widely used technique in the repertoire of odontological aging methods in forensic anthropology. We examined 129 single root teeth employing a digital camera and imaging software for the measurement of the luminance of the teeth's translucent root zone. Variability in luminance detection was evaluated using statistical technical error of measurement analysis. The method revealed stable values largely unrelated to observer experience, whereas requisite formulas proved to be camera-specific and should therefore be generated for an individual recording setting based on samples of known chronological age. Multiple regression analysis showed a highly significant influence of the coefficients of the variables "arithmetic mean" and "standard deviation" of luminance for the regression formula. For the use of this primer multivariate equation for age-at-death estimation in casework, a standard error of the estimate of 6.51 years was calculated. Step-by-step reduction of the number of embedded variables to linear regression analysis employing the best contributor "arithmetic mean" of luminance yielded a regression equation with a standard error of 6.72 years (p < 0.001). The results of this study not only support the premise of root translucency as an age-related phenomenon, but also demonstrate that translucency reflects a number of other influencing factors in addition to age. This new digital measuring technique of the zone of dental root luminance can broaden the array of methods available for estimating chronological age, and furthermore facilitate measurement and age classification due to its low dependence on observer experience.

  3. Age Estimation Based on Appearance of Gray Hair in Different Body Sites of Sri Lankan Autopsy Cases.

    PubMed

    Senanayake, Harshana Mahendra Kumara; Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana

    2017-07-01

    Owing to the scanty evidence on usefulness of information of appearance of gray hair for age estimation, this study was conducted to estimate age based on the appearance of gray hair on different body sites in a sample of autopsy cases in Sri Lanka. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Teaching Hospital-Kurunegala during 2011 to 2013. Based on the pattern of the presence of gray hair in different body sites, six stages of gray hair were computed. The analysis 1155 autopsy cases revealed strong, positive correlations between age and appearance of gray hair in head, mustache, beard, and pubic area among males and strong, positive correlations between age and the appearance of gray hair in head and pubic area among females (p < 0.01). Our findings demonstrate the value of information of appearance of gray hair for age estimation in the field of forensic science. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  4. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  5. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    PubMed

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Age estimation by using dental radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Limdiwala, Piyush G.; Shah, J. S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Estimation of age is important in forensic sciences as a way to establish the identity of human remains. Of the various parts of the body used in age estimation, teeth are the least affected by the taphonomic process. Their durability means that they are sometimes the only body part available for study. Several methods of age estimation have been studied using bone and teeth, and among them, tooth wear and apposition of secondary dentine are the currently available non-destructive methods. Objectives: The purpose of the study was to determine the age of adults by using Kvaal's method as well as to establish the relationship of chronological age and dental age with its reliability and limitations on digital panoramic radiographs. Materials and Methods: The present study was based on panoramic radiographs that consisted of two groups. One hundred orthopantomographs with Kvaal's criteria (Group A) and 50 orthopantomographs without Kvaal's criteria (Group B) were included. Various parameters were measured and the result was analyzed by means of SPSS-12.0 program statistical data. Result and Conclusion: On the basis of Kvaal's criteria, the difference between chronological age and real age was 8.3 years. This suggests that the accuracy of this method depends on the precision of measurements and quality and number of the orthopantomographs. PMID:24255560

  7. Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

    2010-01-01

    We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in

  8. Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity.

  9. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  10. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  11. Aging persons' estimates of vehicular motion.

    PubMed

    Schiff, W; Oldak, R; Shah, V

    1992-12-01

    Estimated arrival times of moving autos were examined in relation to viewer age, gender, motion trajectory, and velocity. Direct push-button judgments were compared with verbal estimates derived from velocity and distance, which were based on assumptions that perceivers compute arrival time from perceived distance and velocity. Experiment 1 showed that direct estimates of younger Ss were most accurate. Older women made the shortest (highly cautious) estimates of when cars would arrive. Verbal estimates were much lower than direct estimates, with little correlation between them. Experiment 2 extended target distances and velocities of targets, with the results replicating the main findings of Experiment 1. Judgment accuracy increased with target velocity, and verbal estimates were again poorer estimates of arrival time than direct ones, with different patterns of findings. Using verbal estimates to approximate judgments in traffic situations appears questionable.

  12. Fully automatic bone age estimation from left hand MR images.

    PubMed

    Stern, Darko; Ebner, Thomas; Bischof, Horst; Grassegger, Sabine; Ehammer, Thomas; Urschler, Martin

    2014-01-01

    There has recently been an increased demand in bone age estimation (BAE) of living individuals and human remains in legal medicine applications. A severe drawback of established BAE techniques based on X-ray images is radiation exposure, since many countries prohibit scanning involving ionizing radiation without diagnostic reasons. We propose a completely automated method for BAE based on volumetric hand MRI images. On our database of 56 male caucasian subjects between 13 and 19 years, we are able to estimate the subjects age with a mean difference of 0.85 ± 0.58 years compared to the chronological age, which is in line with radiologist results using established radiographic methods. We see this work as a promising first step towards a novel MRI based bone age estimation system, with the key benefits of lacking exposure to ionizing radiation and higher accuracy due to exploitation of volumetric data.

  13. Computerized Bone Age Estimation Using Deep Learning Based Program: Evaluation of the Accuracy and Efficiency.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jeong Rye; Shim, Woo Hyun; Yoon, Hee Mang; Hong, Sang Hyup; Lee, Jin Seong; Cho, Young Ah; Kim, Sangki

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of a new automatic software system for bone age assessment and to validate its feasibility in clinical practice. A Greulich-Pyle method-based deep-learning technique was used to develop the automatic software system for bone age determination. Using this software, bone age was estimated from left-hand radiographs of 200 patients (3-17 years old) using first-rank bone age (software only), computer-assisted bone age (two radiologists with software assistance), and Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age (two radiologists with Greulich-Pyle atlas assistance only). The reference bone age was determined by the consensus of two experienced radiologists. First-rank bone ages determined by the automatic software system showed a 69.5% concordance rate and significant correlations with the reference bone age (r = 0.992; p < 0.001). Concordance rates increased with the use of the automatic software system for both reviewer 1 (63.0% for Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age vs 72.5% for computer-assisted bone age) and reviewer 2 (49.5% for Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age vs 57.5% for computer-assisted bone age). Reading times were reduced by 18.0% and 40.0% for reviewers 1 and 2, respectively. Automatic software system showed reliably accurate bone age estimations and appeared to enhance efficiency by reducing reading times without compromising the diagnostic accuracy.

  14. Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

    PubMed

    Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

    2011-01-01

    Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5)q(x)). We then compare our (5)q(x) estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with future

  15. Age estimation from canine volumes.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gaudio, Daniel; Guercini, Nicola; Cipriani, Filippo; Gibelli, Daniele; Caputi, Sergio; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    Techniques for estimation of biological age are constantly evolving and are finding daily application in the forensic radiology field in cases concerning the estimation of the chronological age of a corpse in order to reconstruct the biological profile, or of a living subject, for example in cases of immigration of people without identity papers from a civil registry. The deposition of teeth secondary dentine and consequent decrease of pulp chamber in size are well known as aging phenomena, and they have been applied to the forensic context by the development of age estimation procedures, such as Kvaal-Solheim and Cameriere methods. The present study takes into consideration canines pulp chamber volume related to the entire teeth volume, with the aim of proposing new regression formulae for age estimation using 91 cone beam computerized scans and a freeware open-source software, in order to permit affordable reproducibility of volumes calculation.

  16. The Estimation of Gestational Age at Birth in Database Studies.

    PubMed

    Eberg, Maria; Platt, Robert W; Filion, Kristian B

    2017-11-01

    Studies on the safety of prenatal medication use require valid estimation of the pregnancy duration. However, gestational age is often incompletely recorded in administrative and clinical databases. Our objective was to compare different approaches to estimating the pregnancy duration. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics, we examined the following four approaches to estimating missing gestational age: (1) generalized estimating equations for longitudinal data; (2) multiple imputation; (3) estimation based on fetal birth weight and sex; and (4) conventional approaches that assigned a fixed value (39 weeks for all or 39 weeks for full term and 35 weeks for preterm). The gestational age recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics was considered the gold standard. We conducted a simulation study comparing the described approaches in terms of estimated bias and mean square error. A total of 25,929 infants from 22,774 mothers were included in our "gold standard" cohort. The smallest average absolute bias was observed for the generalized estimating equation that included birth weight, while the largest absolute bias occurred when assigning 39-week gestation to all those with missing values. The smallest mean square errors were detected with generalized estimating equations while multiple imputation had the highest mean square errors. The use of generalized estimating equations resulted in the most accurate estimation of missing gestational age when birth weight information was available. In the absence of birth weight, assignment of fixed gestational age based on term/preterm status may be the optimal approach.

  17. Age estimation using tooth cementum annulation.

    PubMed

    Wittwer-Backofen, Ursula

    2012-01-01

    In Forensic Anthropology age diagnosis of unidentified bodies significantly helps in the identification process. Among the set of established aging methods in anthropology tooth cementum annulation (TCA) is increasingly used due to its narrow error range which can reach 5 years of age in adult individuals at best. The rhythm of cementum appositions of seasonally different density provides a principal mechanism on which TCA is based. Using histological preparation techniques for hard tissues, transversal tooth root sections are produced which can be analyzed in transmitted light microscopy. Even though no standard TCA preparation protocol exists, several methodological validation studies recommend specific treatments depending on individual conditions of the teeth. Individual age is estimated by adding mean tooth eruption age to the number of microscopically detected dark layers which are separated by bright layers and stand for 1 year of age each. To assure a high reliability of the method, TCA age diagnosis has to be based on several teeth of one individual if possible and needs to be supported by different techniques in forensic cases.

  18. Aspartic acid racemisation in purified elastin from arteries as basis for age estimation.

    PubMed

    Dobberstein, R C; Tung, S-M; Ritz-Timme, S

    2010-07-01

    Aspartic acid racemisation (AAR) results in an age-dependent accumulation of D: -aspartic acid in durable human proteins and can be used as a basis for age estimation. Routinely, age estimation based on AAR is performed by analysis of dentine. However, in forensic practise, teeth are not always available. Non-dental tissues for age estimation may be suitable for age estimation based on AAR if they contain durable proteins that can be purified and analysed. Elastin is such a durable protein. To clarify if purified elastin from arteries is a suitable sample for biochemical age estimation, AAR was determined in purified elastin from arteries from individuals of known age (n = 68 individuals, including n = 15 putrefied corpses), considering the influence of different stages of atherosclerosis and putrefaction on the AAR values. AAR was found to increase with age. The relationship between AAR and age was good enough to serve as basis for age estimation, but worse than known from dentinal proteins. Intravital and post-mortem degradation of elastin may have a moderate effect on the AAR values. Age estimation based on AAR in purified elastin from arteries may be a valuable additional tool in the identification of unidentified cadavers, especially in cases where other methods cannot be applied (e.g., no available teeth and body parts).

  19. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

  20. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  1. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    PubMed Central

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  2. Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

  3. Molecular pathology and age estimation.

    PubMed

    Meissner, Christoph; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2010-12-15

    Over the course of our lifetime a stochastic process leads to gradual alterations of biomolecules on the molecular level, a process that is called ageing. Important changes are observed on the DNA-level as well as on the protein level and are the cause and/or consequence of our 'molecular clock', influenced by genetic as well as environmental parameters. These alterations on the molecular level may aid in forensic medicine to estimate the age of a living person, a dead body or even skeletal remains for identification purposes. Four such important alterations have become the focus of molecular age estimation in the forensic community over the last two decades. The age-dependent accumulation of the 4977bp deletion of mitochondrial DNA and the attrition of telomeres along with ageing are two important processes at the DNA-level. Among a variety of protein alterations, the racemisation of aspartic acid and advanced glycation endproducs have already been tested for forensic applications. At the moment the racemisation of aspartic acid represents the pinnacle of molecular age estimation for three reasons: an excellent standardization of sampling and methods, an evaluation of different variables in many published studies and highest accuracy of results. The three other mentioned alterations often lack standardized procedures, published data are sparse and often have the character of pilot studies. Nevertheless it is important to evaluate molecular methods for their suitability in forensic age estimation, because supplementary methods will help to extend and refine accuracy and reliability of such estimates. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Dental cementum in age estimation: a polarized light and stereomicroscopic study.

    PubMed

    Kasetty, Sowmya; Rammanohar, M; Raju Ragavendra, T

    2010-05-01

    Dental hard tissues are good candidates for age estimation as they are less destructive and procedures to determine age can be easily performed. Although cementum annulations and cementum thickness are important parameters in this regard, they are seldom used. This study was undertaken to review the methods, difficulties in execution of techniques, and accuracy of cementum thickness and annulations in estimating the age. Unstained and stained ground sections of tooth were used to measure cemental thickness and count cemental annulations based on which age was estimated and was compared with known age. Although there was positive relation between cemental thickness and annulations with age, only in 1-1.5% of cases, age could be predicted with accuracy.

  5. Age and gender estimation using Region-SIFT and multi-layered SVM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hyunduk; Lee, Sang-Heon; Sohn, Myoung-Kyu; Hwang, Byunghun

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose an age and gender estimation framework using the region-SIFT feature and multi-layered SVM classifier. The suggested framework entails three processes. The first step is landmark based face alignment. The second step is the feature extraction step. In this step, we introduce the region-SIFT feature extraction method based on facial landmarks. First, we define sub-regions of the face. We then extract SIFT features from each sub-region. In order to reduce the dimensions of features we employ a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Finally, we classify age and gender using a multi-layered Support Vector Machines (SVM) for efficient classification. Rather than performing gender estimation and age estimation independently, the use of the multi-layered SVM can improve the classification rate by constructing a classifier that estimate the age according to gender. Moreover, we collect a dataset of face images, called by DGIST_C, from the internet. A performance evaluation of proposed method was performed with the FERET database, CACD database, and DGIST_C database. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach classifies age and performs gender estimation very efficiently and accurately.

  6. A fully nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data

    PubMed Central

    Gorfine, Malka; Bordo, Nadia; Hsu, Li

    2017-01-01

    Summary Consider a popular case–control family study where individuals with a disease under study (case probands) and individuals who do not have the disease (control probands) are randomly sampled from a well-defined population. Possibly right-censored age at onset and disease status are observed for both probands and their relatives. For example, case probands are men diagnosed with prostate cancer, control probands are men free of prostate cancer, and the prostate cancer history of the fathers of the probands is also collected. Inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior lead to correlation among the outcomes within a family. In this article, a novel nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function is provided. The estimator is defined in the presence of intra-cluster dependence, and is based on consistent smoothed kernel estimators of conditional survival functions. By simulation, it is shown that the proposed estimator performs very well in terms of bias. The utility of the estimator is illustrated by the analysis of case–control family data of early onset prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first article that provides a fully nonparametric marginal survival estimator based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data. PMID:27436674

  7. Age group estimation in free-ranging African elephants based on acoustic cues of low-frequency rumbles

    PubMed Central

    Stoeger, Angela S.; Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Baotic, Anton

    2015-01-01

    Animal vocal signals are increasingly used to monitor wildlife populations and to obtain estimates of species occurrence and abundance. In the future, acoustic monitoring should function not only to detect animals, but also to extract detailed information about populations by discriminating sexes, age groups, social or kin groups, and potentially individuals. Here we show that it is possible to estimate age groups of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on acoustic parameters extracted from rumbles recorded under field conditions in a National Park in South Africa. Statistical models reached up to 70 % correct classification to four age groups (infants, calves, juveniles, adults) and 95 % correct classification when categorising into two groups (infants/calves lumped into one group versus adults). The models revealed that parameters representing absolute frequency values have the most discriminative power. Comparable classification results were obtained by fully automated classification of rumbles by high-dimensional features that represent the entire spectral envelope, such as MFCC (75 % correct classification) and GFCC (74 % correct classification). The reported results and methods provide the scientific foundation for a future system that could potentially automatically estimate the demography of an acoustically monitored elephant group or population. PMID:25821348

  8. Usefulness of telomere length in DNA from human teeth for age estimation.

    PubMed

    Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; González-Herrera, Lucas; Valenzuela, Aurora

    2018-03-01

    Age estimation is widely used to identify individuals in forensic medicine. However, the accuracy of the most commonly used procedures is markedly reduced in adulthood, and these methods cannot be applied in practice when morphological information is limited. Molecular methods for age estimation have been extensively developed in the last few years. The fact that telomeres shorten at each round of cell division has led to the hypothesis that telomere length can be used as a tool to predict age. The present study thus aimed to assess the correlation between telomere length measured in dental DNA and age, and the effect of sex and tooth type on telomere length; a further aim was to propose a statistical regression model to estimate the biological age based on telomere length. DNA was extracted from 91 tooth samples belonging to 77 individuals of both sexes and 15 to 85 years old and was used to determine telomere length by quantitative real-time PCR. Our results suggested that telomere length was not affected by sex and was greater in molar teeth. We found a significant correlation between age and telomere length measured in DNA from teeth. However, the equation proposed to predict age was not accurate enough for forensic age estimation on its own. Age estimation based on telomere length in DNA from tooth samples may be useful as a complementary method which provides an approximate estimate of age, especially when human skeletal remains are the only forensic sample available.

  9. Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

  10. A method to estimate stellar ages from kinematical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almeida-Fernandes, F.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.

    2018-05-01

    We present a method to build a probability density function (PDF) for the age of a star based on its peculiar velocities U, V, and W and its orbital eccentricity. The sample used in this work comes from the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) that contains the spatial velocities, orbital eccentricities, and isochronal ages for about 14 000 stars. Using the GCS stars, we fitted the parameters that describe the relations between the distributions of kinematical properties and age. This parametrization allows us to obtain an age probability from the kinematical data. From this age PDF, we estimate an individual average age for the star using the most likely age and the expected age. We have obtained the stellar age PDF for the age of 9102 stars from the GCS and have shown that the distribution of individual ages derived from our method is in good agreement with the distribution of isochronal ages. We also observe a decline in the mean metallicity with our ages for stars younger than 7 Gyr, similar to the one observed for isochronal ages. This method can be useful for the estimation of rough stellar ages for those stars that fall in areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where isochrones are tightly crowded. As an example of this method, we estimate the age of Trappist-1, which is a M8V star, obtaining the age of t(UVW) = 12.50(+0.29 - 6.23) Gyr.

  11. Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

  12. Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

    PubMed

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

    2015-12-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015

  13. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  14. Value of parents' estimates of children's developmental ages.

    PubMed

    Glascoe, F P; Sandler, H

    1995-11-01

    To determine whether parents' estimates of children's developmental ages can function as a prescreening technique. Parents of 234 children from birth to 77 months of age seeking well-child care in pediatric offices were queried in two separate studies. In the first study, parents were asked to give an estimate of their child's overall developmental age and, in the second study, to estimate ages in each of six developmental domains. Children were administered a range of screening measures of intelligence, speech-language, and adoptive behavior. The overall age-estimate, if less than chronologic age, was 75% sensitive to likely developmental problems and, if equal to or greater than chronologic age, was 90% specific in identifying children likely to have typical development. Age estimates for each developmental domain were 81% sensitive to likely developmental problems if less than chronologic age in the domains of fine motor, language, grass motor, or behavior, and 62% specific if equal to or greater than chronologic age. Estimates at or below chronologic age in receptive language or personal-social domains were 90% sensitive and 43% specific in identifying likely behavior problems. There were no differences in the accuracy of parents estimates on the basis of children's age, gender, race, parents' level of education, or parenting experience. Parents' overall age-estimates provided a sensitive and specific indicator of global developmental status, but insufficient information about strengths and weaknesses to enable focused referrals for services. In contrast, discrete patterns of age estimates in each developmental domain sensitively discriminated children with developmental versus behavioral problems, although specificity was limited. Age estimates appear to be a potentially helpful method for identifying a subset of children in need of thorough screening, although further research is needed on a larger sample given diagnostic rather than screening tests.

  15. Estimating the value of volunteer-assisted community-based aging services: a case example.

    PubMed

    Scharlach, Andrew E

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of a social return on investment (SROI) approach in estimating the financial and social value created by volunteer-assisted community-based aging services. An expanded value added statement (EVAS) analysis found that the total value of outputs produced by the Concierge Club of San Diego substantially exceeded the cost of the program, after considering likely secondary and tertiary benefits for a range of affected stakeholders-including elderly service recipients, family members, volunteers, and societal institutions. Additional research is needed regarding the direct and indirect costs and benefits of volunteer support services for vulnerable older adults and their families.

  16. Gestational age estimation on United States livebirth certificates: a historical overview.

    PubMed

    Wier, Megan L; Pearl, Michelle; Kharrazi, Martin

    2007-09-01

    Gestational age on the birth certificate is the most common source of population-based gestational age data that informs public health policy and practice in the US. Last menstrual period is one of the oldest methods of gestational age estimation and has been on the US Standard Certificate of Live Birth since 1968. The 'clinical estimate of gestation', added to the standard certificate in 1989 to address missing or erroneous last menstrual period data, was replaced by the 'obstetric estimate of gestation' on the 2003 revision, which specifically precludes neonatal assessments. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these measures, potential research implications and challenges accompanying the transition to the obstetric estimate.

  17. Proof of age required--estimating age in adults without birth records.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Christine; Narayanasamy, Shanti

    2010-07-01

    Many adults from refugee source countries do not have documents of birth, either because they have been lost in flight, or because the civil infrastructure is too fragile to support routine recording of birth. In Western countries, date of birth is used as a basic identifier, and access to services and support tends to be age regulated. Doctors are not infrequently asked to write formal reports estimating the true age of adult refugees; however, there are no existing guidelines to assist in this task. To provide an overview of methods to estimate age in living adults, and outline recommendations for best practice. Age should be estimated through physical examination; life history, matching local or national events with personal milestones; and existing nonformal documents. Accuracy of age estimation should be subject to three tests: biological plausibility, historical plausibility, and corroboration from reputable sources.

  18. Theoretical investigation on the mass loss impact on asteroseismic grid-based estimates of mass, radius, and age for RGB stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

    2018-01-01

    Aims: We aim to perform a theoretical evaluation of the impact of the mass loss indetermination on asteroseismic grid based estimates of masses, radii, and ages of stars in the red giant branch (RGB) phase. Methods: We adopted the SCEPtER pipeline on a grid spanning the mass range [0.8; 1.8] M⊙. As observational constraints, we adopted the star effective temperatures, the metallicity [Fe/H], the average large frequency spacing Δν, and the frequency of maximum oscillation power νmax. The mass loss was modelled following a Reimers parametrization with the two different efficiencies η = 0.4 and η = 0.8. Results: In the RGB phase, the average random relative error (owing only to observational uncertainty) on mass and age estimates is about 8% and 30% respectively. The bias in mass and age estimates caused by the adoption of a wrong mass loss parameter in the recovery is minor for the vast majority of the RGB evolution. The biases get larger only after the RGB bump. In the last 2.5% of the RGB lifetime the error on the mass determination reaches 6.5% becoming larger than the random error component in this evolutionary phase. The error on the age estimate amounts to 9%, that is, equal to the random error uncertainty. These results are independent of the stellar metallicity [Fe/H] in the explored range. Conclusions: Asteroseismic-based estimates of stellar mass, radius, and age in the RGB phase can be considered mass loss independent within the range (η ∈ [0.0,0.8]) as long as the target is in an evolutionary phase preceding the RGB bump.

  19. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    PubMed

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  20. Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

    PubMed

    Roy, S G

    1989-06-01

    "Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

  1. Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales.

    PubMed

    Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

    2014-09-01

    Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R(2) of 0.787 (P = 3.04e-16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent-offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. © 2014 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales

    PubMed Central

    Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

    2014-01-01

    Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R2 of 0.787 (P = 3.04e−16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent–offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. PMID:24606053

  3. Age estimation based on pulp chamber volume of first molars from cone-beam computed tomography images.

    PubMed

    Ge, Zhi-pu; Ma, Ruo-han; Li, Gang; Zhang, Ji-zong; Ma, Xu-chen

    2015-08-01

    To establish a method that can be used for human age estimation on the basis of pulp chamber volume of first molars and to identify whether the method is good enough for age estimation in real human cases. CBCT images of 373 maxillary first molars and 372 mandibular first molars were collected to establish the mathematical model from 190 female and 213 male patients whose age between 12 and 69 years old. The inclusion criteria of the first molars were: no caries, no excessive tooth wear, no dental restorations, no artifacts due to metal restorative materials present in adjacent teeth, and no pulpal calcification. All the CBCT images were acquired with a CBCT unit NewTom VG (Quantitative Radiology, Verona, Italy) and reconstructed with a voxel-size of 0.15mm. The images were subsequently exported as DICOM data sets and imported into an open source 3D image semi-automatic segmenting and voxel-counting software ITK-SNAP 2.4 for the calculation of pulp chamber volumes. A logarithmic regression analysis was conducted with age as dependent variable and pulp chamber volume as independent variables to establish a mathematical model for the human age estimation. To identify the precision and accuracy of the model for human age estimation, another 104 maxillary first molars and 103 mandibular first molars from 55 female and 57 male patients whose age between 12 and 67 years old were collected, too. Mean absolute error and root mean square error between the actual age and estimated age were used to determine the precision and accuracy of the mathematical model. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. A mathematical model was suggested for: AGE=117.691-26.442×ln (pulp chamber volume). The regression was statistically significant (p=0.000<0.01). The coefficient of determination (R(2)) was 0.564. There is a mean absolute error of 8.122 and root mean square error of 5.603 between the actual age and

  4. Estimating age-based antiretroviral therapy costs for HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings based on World Health Organization weight-based dosing recommendations.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Kathleen; Essajee, Shaffiq; Penazzato, Martina; Holmes, Charles; Resch, Stephen; Ciaranello, Andrea

    2014-05-02

    Pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been shown to substantially reduce morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected infants and children. To accurately project program costs, analysts need accurate estimations of antiretroviral drug (ARV) costs for children. However, the costing of pediatric antiretroviral therapy is complicated by weight-based dosing recommendations which change as children grow. We developed a step-by-step methodology for estimating the cost of pediatric ARV regimens for children ages 0-13 years old. The costing approach incorporates weight-based dosing recommendations to provide estimated ARV doses throughout childhood development. Published unit drug costs are then used to calculate average monthly drug costs. We compared our derived monthly ARV costs to published estimates to assess the accuracy of our methodology. The estimates of monthly ARV costs are provided for six commonly used first-line pediatric ARV regimens, considering three possible care scenarios. The costs derived in our analysis for children were fairly comparable to or slightly higher than available published ARV drug or regimen estimates. The methodology described here can be used to provide an accurate estimation of pediatric ARV regimen costs for cost-effectiveness analysts to project the optimum packages of care for HIV-infected children, as well as for program administrators and budget analysts who wish to assess the feasibility of increasing pediatric ART availability in constrained budget environments.

  5. Estimating age-based antiretroviral therapy costs for HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings based on World Health Organization weight-based dosing recommendations

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been shown to substantially reduce morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected infants and children. To accurately project program costs, analysts need accurate estimations of antiretroviral drug (ARV) costs for children. However, the costing of pediatric antiretroviral therapy is complicated by weight-based dosing recommendations which change as children grow. Methods We developed a step-by-step methodology for estimating the cost of pediatric ARV regimens for children ages 0–13 years old. The costing approach incorporates weight-based dosing recommendations to provide estimated ARV doses throughout childhood development. Published unit drug costs are then used to calculate average monthly drug costs. We compared our derived monthly ARV costs to published estimates to assess the accuracy of our methodology. Results The estimates of monthly ARV costs are provided for six commonly used first-line pediatric ARV regimens, considering three possible care scenarios. The costs derived in our analysis for children were fairly comparable to or slightly higher than available published ARV drug or regimen estimates. Conclusions The methodology described here can be used to provide an accurate estimation of pediatric ARV regimen costs for cost-effectiveness analysts to project the optimum packages of care for HIV-infected children, as well as for program administrators and budget analysts who wish to assess the feasibility of increasing pediatric ART availability in constrained budget environments. PMID:24885453

  6. Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

    PubMed

    Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

    1998-01-01

    Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

  7. Modeling mangrove biomass using remote sensing based age and growth estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Feliciano, E. A.; Lee, S. K.; Trettin, C.; Mangora, M.; Rahman, M.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves are highly regarded coastal forests because of their ecosystem services and high carbon storage potential. In addition, these forests can develop rapidly in locations where congenial environmental conditions and sediment supply are available. Monitoring the growth and age of developing mangrove forests is crucial for sustainable management and estimating carbon stocks. Combining imagery from radar and optical satellites (e.g., TanDEM-X and Landsat), we can estimate young mangrove growth and age at regional and continental scales. We used TanDEM-X radar interferometry for modeling canopy height in 2013 and Landsat to measure land cover change from 1990 to 2013. Annual NDVI composites were determined for each calendar year between 1990 and 2013. New land areas gained from the transition of water to vegetation were determined by the differences in annual NDVI composites and the reference year 2013. The year of the greatest NDVI difference that met the threshold criteria was used as the initial tree height (0 m). Annual canopy height growth rates were estimated by the duration between land generation times and 2013 canopy height models derived from TanDEM-X and very-high resolution optical data. In this presentation, we compare growth rates and biomass accumulation in mangrove forests at four river deltas; the Zambezi (Mozambique), Rufiji (Tanzania), Ganges (Bangladesh), and Mekong (Vietnam). The spatial patterns of growth rates coincided with characteristic successional paradigms and stream morphology, where the maximum growth rates typically occurred along prograding creek banks. Initial comparisons between height-only and growth-age biomass indicate that the latter tend to overestimate biomass for younger forest stands of similar height. Both the vertical (e.g., canopy height) and horizontal (e.g., expansion) growth rates measured from remote sensing can garner important information regarding mangrove succession and primary productivity. Continued research

  8. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas

    PubMed Central

    Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

  9. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  10. Estimating age at a specified length from the von Bertalanffy growth function

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ogle, Derek H.; Isermann, Daniel A.

    2017-01-01

    Estimating the time required (i.e., age) for fish in a population to reach a specific length (e.g., legal harvest length) is useful for understanding population dynamics and simulating the potential effects of length-based harvest regulations. The age at which a population reaches a specific mean length is typically estimated by fitting a von Bertalanffy growth function to length-at-age data and then rearranging the best-fit equation to solve for age at the specified length. This process precludes the use of standard frequentist methods to compute confidence intervals and compare estimates of age at the specified length among populations. We provide a parameterization of the von Bertalanffy growth function that has age at a specified length as a parameter. With this parameterization, age at a specified length is directly estimated, and standard methods can be used to construct confidence intervals and make among-group comparisons for this parameter. We demonstrate use of the new parameterization with two data sets.

  11. Estimating the formation age distribution of continental crust by unmixing zircon ages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korenaga, Jun

    2018-01-01

    Continental crust provides first-order control on Earth's surface environment, enabling the presence of stable dry landmasses surrounded by deep oceans. The evolution of continental crust is important for atmospheric evolution, because continental crust is an essential component of deep carbon cycle and is likely to have played a critical role in the oxygenation of the atmosphere. Geochemical information stored in the mineral zircon, known for its resilience to diagenesis and metamorphism, has been central to ongoing debates on the genesis and evolution of continental crust. However, correction for crustal reworking, which is the most critical step when estimating original formation ages, has been incorrectly formulated, undermining the significance of previous estimates. Here I suggest a simple yet promising approach for reworking correction using the global compilation of zircon data. The present-day distribution of crustal formation age estimated by the new "unmixing" method serves as the lower bound to the true crustal growth, and large deviations from growth models based on mantle depletion imply the important role of crustal recycling through the Earth history.

  12. Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Toshio; Koike, Hiroko; Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru

    2015-10-01

    In this study, 14C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-14C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for 14C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global 14C contents (F14C). The F14C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F14C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

  13. Radiological age estimation: based on third molar mineralization and eruption in Turkish children and young adults.

    PubMed

    Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi

    2012-11-01

    Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation.

  14. Determinants and consequences of discrepancies in menstrual and ultrasonographic gestational age estimates.

    PubMed

    Morin, Isabelle; Morin, Lucie; Zhang, Xun; Platt, Robert W; Blondel, Béatrice; Bréart, Gérard; Usher, Robert; Kramer, Michael S

    2005-02-01

    To assess the association between maternal and fetal characteristics and discrepancy between last normal menstrual period and early (<20 weeks) ultrasound-based gestational age and the association between discrepancies and pregnancy outcomes. Hospital-based cohort study. Montreal, Canada. A total of 46,514 women with both menstrual- and early ultrasound-based gestational age estimates. Positive (last normal menstrual period > early ultrasound, i.e. menstrual-based gestational age is higher than early ultrasound-based gestational age, so that the expected date of delivery is earlier with the menstrual-based gestational age) discrepancies > or =+7 days, mean birthweight, low birthweight, stillbirth and in-hospital neonatal death. Multiparous mothers and those with diabetes, small stature or high pre-pregnancy body mass index were more likely to have positive discrepancies. The proportion of women with discrepancies > or =+7 days was significantly higher among chromosomally malformed and female fetuses. The mean birthweight declined with increasingly positive differences. The risk of low birthweight was significantly higher for positive differences. Associations with fetal growth measures were more plausible with early ultrasound estimates. Although most discrepancies between last normal menstrual period- and early ultrasound-based gestational age are attributable to errors in menstrual dating, our results suggest that some positive differences reflect early growth restriction.

  15. What automated age estimation of hand and wrist MRI data tells us about skeletal maturation in male adolescents.

    PubMed

    Urschler, Martin; Grassegger, Sabine; Štern, Darko

    2015-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is important in human biology and has various medical and forensic applications. Recent interest in MR-based methods aims to investigate alternatives for established methods involving ionising radiation. Automatic, software-based methods additionally promise improved estimation objectivity. To investigate how informative automatically selected image features are regarding their ability to discriminate age, by exploring a recently proposed software-based age estimation method for MR images of the left hand and wrist. One hundred and two MR datasets of left hand images are used to evaluate age estimation performance, consisting of bone and epiphyseal gap volume localisation, computation of one age regression model per bone mapping image features to age and fusion of individual bone age predictions to a final age estimate. Quantitative results of the software-based method show an age estimation performance with a mean absolute difference of 0.85 years (SD = 0.58 years) to chronological age, as determined by a cross-validation experiment. Qualitatively, it is demonstrated how feature selection works and which image features of skeletal maturation are automatically chosen to model the non-linear regression function. Feasibility of automatic age estimation based on MRI data is shown and selected image features are found to be informative for describing anatomical changes during physical maturation in male adolescents.

  16. A critique of age estimation using attrition as the sole indicator.

    PubMed

    Ball, J

    2002-12-01

    The age determination of skeletal remains has been carried out using anthropological examination of the remaining bones and dentition. The aging of the dentition is based on attrition which, if physiological will correlate with age. Occasionally the only material available is a single tooth or a few teeth, or in the case of a living person, teeth in situ. In certain cases microscopic examination of the teeth may not be possible and the age estimation is then often determined by the degree of attrition associated with the tooth. In more recent times the causes of attrition have involved other factors such as bruxism, diet, environment and medication. The weaknesses and limitations of age estimation by examination of dental attrition as the sole indicator of age are highlighted.

  17. Estimating stand age for Douglas-fir.

    Treesearch

    Floyd A. Johnson

    1954-01-01

    Stand age for Douglas-fir has been defined as the average age of dominant and codominant trees. It is commonly estimated by measuring the age of several dominants and codominants and computing their arithmetic average.

  18. Comparison of gyrochronological and isochronal age estimates for transiting exoplanet host stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxted, P. F. L.; Serenelli, A. M.; Southworth, J.

    2015-05-01

    Context. Tidal interactions between planets and their host stars are not well understood, but may be an important factor in their formation, structure, and evolution. Previous studies suggest that these tidal interactions may be responsible for discrepancies between the ages of exoplanet host stars estimated using stellar models (isochronal age estimates) and age estimates based on the stars' rotation periods (gyrochronological age estimates). Recent improvements in our understanding of the rotational evolution of single stars and a substantial increase in the number of exoplanet host stars with accurate rotation period measurements make it worthwhile to revisit this question. Aims: Our aim is to determine whether the gyrochronological age estimates for transiting exoplanet host stars with accurate rotation period measurements are consistent with their isochronal age estimates, and whether this is indicative of tidal interaction between the planets and their host stars. Methods: We have compiled a sample of 28 transiting exoplanet host stars with measured rotation periods, including two stars (HAT-P-21 and WASP-5) for which the rotation period based on the light curve modulation is reported here for the first time. We use our recently developed Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the joint posterior distribution for the mass and age of each star in the sample. We extend our Bayesian method to include a calculation of the posterior distribution of the gyrochronological age estimate that accounts for the uncertainties in the mass and age, the strong correlation between these values, and the uncertainties in the mass-rotation-age calibration. Results: The gyrochronological age estimate (τgyro) is significantly lower than the isochronal age estimate for about half of the stars in our sample. Tidal interactions between the star and planet are a reasonable explanation for this discrepancy in some cases, but not all. The distribution of τgyro values is

  19. Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms--prevalence estimates in different age groups: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V; Søndergaard, Jens; Jarbøl, Dorte E

    2015-02-01

    To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. Web-based cross-sectional survey study. Nationwide in Denmark. A random sample of 51,090 women aged 20 years or above from the general population. An internet-based questionnaire study regarding the prevalence estimates of symptom experiences. A total of 18 symptoms of cervical, endometrial and ovarian cancer were selected through an extensive literature search, which included national and international guidelines. Prevalence estimates of self-reported experience of gynecological alarm symptoms within the preceding 4 weeks. A total of 26,466 women (54.5%) participated in the study. Some 80.3% had experienced at least one of the alarm symptoms within the preceding 4 weeks, and the median number of experienced symptoms was 2 (interquartile range 1-4). The most common symptoms were tiredness (53.0%) and abdominal bloating (36.7%); postmenopausal bleeding (2.3%) and involuntary weight loss (2.8%) were least frequent. Most of the symptoms were more prevalent among younger women, whereas only dyspnea and increased urgency of urination were more frequent among older women. Among younger women, multiple abdominal symptoms often occurred simultaneously and frequently in combination with pelvic pain, whereas older women were more likely to report single symptoms. Gynecological alarm symptoms are frequent in the general population, mostly among younger women. Older women reported fewer symptoms, and these often appeared as single symptoms. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  20. Variation between last-menstrual-period and clinical estimates of gestational age in vital records.

    PubMed

    Qin, Cheng; Hsia, Jason; Berg, Cynthia J

    2008-03-15

    An accurate assessment of gestational age is vital to population-based research and surveillance in maternal and infant health. However, the quality of gestational age measurements derived from birth certificates has been in question. Using the 2002 US public-use natality file, the authors examined the agreement between estimates of gestational age based on the last menstrual period (LMP) and clinical estimates in vital records across durations of gestation and US states and explored reasons for disagreement. Agreement between the LMP and the clinical estimate of gestational age varied substantially across gestations and among states. Preterm births were more likely than term births to have disagreement between the two estimates. Maternal age, maternal education, initiation of prenatal care, order of livebirth, and use of ultrasound had significant independent effects on the disagreement between the two measures, regardless of gestational age, but these factors made little difference in the magnitude of gestational age group differences. Information available on birth certificates was not sufficient to understand this disparity. The lowest agreement between the LMP and the clinical estimate was observed among preterm infants born at 28-36 weeks' gestation, who accounted for more than 90% of total preterm births. This finding deserves particular attention and further investigation.

  1. Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2008-01-01

    Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

  2. Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Amitha J.; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K. R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K. P; Manaktala, Nidhi

    2015-01-01

    Aim: The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Results: Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R2 varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. Conclusion: The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development. PMID:26005306

  3. Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Amitha J; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K P; Manaktala, Nidhi

    2015-01-01

    The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R (2) varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development.

  4. A New Approach to Estimate the Age of the Earth and the Age of the Universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben Salem, Kamel

    2011-01-01

    In a previous article, we proposed estimations for the age of the Universe and for the date of stabilization of its general structure on the basis of a given age of the Earth equal to 4.6 billion years. In the present article, we propose a new approach to estimate more accurately and at the same time, the age of the Earth and that of the Universe, starting from verse 4 of Sura 70 of the Qur'an. The procedure we followed and which is detailed in this article, should in our view, contribute to enlighten the debate on the question. We must add that our approach can in no case be considered as based on "concordism" or conjecture. Indeed, it rests on rigorous mathematical computations.

  5. Bias correction of nutritional status estimates when reported age is used for calculating WHO indicators in children under five years of age.

    PubMed

    Quezada, Amado D; García-Guerra, Armando; Escobar, Leticia

    2016-06-01

    To assess the performance of a simple correction method for nutritional status estimates in children under five years of age when exact age is not available from the data. The proposed method was based on the assumption of symmetry of age distributions within a given month of age and validated in a large population-based survey sample of Mexican preschool children. The main distributional assumption was consistent with the data. All prevalence estimates derived from the correction method showed no statistically significant bias. In contrast, failing to correct attained age resulted in an underestimation of stunting in general and an overestimation of overweight or obesity among the youngest. The proposed method performed remarkably well in terms of bias correction of estimates and could be easily applied in situations in which either birth or interview dates are not available from the data.

  6. Forensic age estimation by morphometric analysis of the manubrium from 3D MR images.

    PubMed

    Martínez Vera, Naira P; Höller, Johannes; Widek, Thomas; Neumayer, Bernhard; Ehammer, Thomas; Urschler, Martin

    2017-08-01

    Forensic age estimation research based on skeletal structures focuses on patterns of growth and development using different bones. In this work, our aim was to study growth-related evolution of the manubrium in living adolescents and young adults using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which is an image acquisition modality that does not involve ionizing radiation. In a first step, individual manubrium and subject features were correlated with age, which confirmed a statistically significant change of manubrium volume (M vol :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.50) and surface area (M sur :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.53) for the studied age range. Additionally, shapes of the manubria were for the first time investigated using principal component analysis. The decomposition of the data in principal components allowed to analyse the contribution of each component to total shape variation. With 13 principal components, ∼96% of shape variation could be described (M shp :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.60). Multiple linear regression analysis modelled the relationship between the statistically best correlated variables and age. Models including manubrium shape, volume or surface area divided by the height of the subject (Y∼M shp M sur /S h :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.71; Y∼M shp M vol /S h :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.72) presented a standard error of estimate of two years. In order to estimate the accuracy of these two manubrium-based age estimation models, cross validation experiments predicting age on held-out test sets were performed. Median absolute difference of predicted and known chronological age was 1.18 years for the best performing model (Y∼M shp M sur /S h :p<0.01, R p 2 =0.67). In conclusion, despite limitations in determining legal majority age, manubrium morphometry analysis presented statistically significant results for skeletal age estimation, which indicates that this bone structure may be considered as a new candidate in multi-factorial MRI-based age estimation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  7. Recollection, not familiarity, decreases in healthy aging: Converging evidence from four estimation methods

    PubMed Central

    Koen, Joshua D.; Yonelinas, Andrew P.

    2014-01-01

    Although it is generally accepted that aging is associated with recollection impairments, there is considerable disagreement surrounding how healthy aging influences familiarity-based recognition. One factor that might contribute to the mixed findings regarding age differences in familiarity is the estimation method used to quantify the two mnemonic processes. Here, this issue is examined by having a group of older adults (N = 39) between 40 and 81 years of age complete Remember/Know (RK), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and process dissociation (PD) recognition tests. Estimates of recollection, but not familiarity, showed a significant negative correlation with chronological age. Inconsistent with previous findings, the estimation method did not moderate the relationship between age and estimations of recollection and familiarity. In a final analysis, recollection and familiarity were estimated as latent factors in a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) that modeled the covariance between measures of free recall and recognition, and the results converged with the results from the RK, PD, and ROC tasks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that episodic memory declines in older adults are primary driven by recollection deficits, and also suggest that the estimation method plays little to no role in age-related decreases in familiarity. PMID:25485974

  8. Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2018-03-01

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

  9. A holistic approach to age estimation in refugee children.

    PubMed

    Sypek, Scott A; Benson, Jill; Spanner, Kate A; Williams, Jan L

    2016-06-01

    Many refugee children arriving in Australia have an inaccurately documented date of birth (DOB). A medical assessment of a child's age is often requested when there is a concern that their documented DOB is incorrect. This study's aim was to assess the accuracy a holistic age assessment tool (AAT) in estimating the age of refugee children newly settled in Australia. A holistic AAT that combines medical and non-medical approaches was used to estimate the ages of 60 refugee children with a known DOB. The tool used four components to assess age: an oral narrative, developmental assessment, anthropometric measures and pubertal assessment. Assessors were blinded to the true age of the child. Correlation coefficients for the actual and estimated age were calculated for the tool overall and individual components. The correlation coefficient between the actual and estimated age from the AAT was very strong at 0.9802 (boys 0.9748, girls 0.9876). The oral narrative component of the tool performed best (R = 0.9603). Overall, 86.7% of age estimates were within 1 year of the true age. The range of differences was -1.43 to 3.92 years with a standard deviation of 0.77 years (9.24 months). The AAT is a holistic, simple and safe instrument that can be used to estimate age in refugee children with results comparable with radiological methods currently used. © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  10. Heterogeneous Rates of Molecular Evolution and Diversification Could Explain the Triassic Age Estimate for Angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Crane, Peter; Donoghue, Michael J

    2015-09-01

    Dating analyses based on molecular data imply that crown angiosperms existed in the Triassic, long before their undisputed appearance in the fossil record in the Early Cretaceous. Following a re-analysis of the age of angiosperms using updated sequences and fossil calibrations, we use a series of simulations to explore the possibility that the older age estimates are a consequence of (i) major shifts in the rate of sequence evolution near the base of the angiosperms and/or (ii) the representative taxon sampling strategy employed in such studies. We show that both of these factors do tend to yield substantially older age estimates. These analyses do not prove that younger age estimates based on the fossil record are correct, but they do suggest caution in accepting the older age estimates obtained using current relaxed-clock methods. Although we have focused here on the angiosperms, we suspect that these results will shed light on dating discrepancies in other major clades. ©The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Applying Deep Learning in Medical Images: The Case of Bone Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jang Hyung; Kim, Kwang Gi

    2018-01-01

    A diagnostic need often arises to estimate bone age from X-ray images of the hand of a subject during the growth period. Together with measured physical height, such information may be used as indicators for the height growth prognosis of the subject. We present a way to apply the deep learning technique to medical image analysis using hand bone age estimation as an example. Age estimation was formulated as a regression problem with hand X-ray images as input and estimated age as output. A set of hand X-ray images was used to form a training set with which a regression model was trained. An image preprocessing procedure is described which reduces image variations across data instances that are unrelated to age-wise variation. The use of Caffe, a deep learning tool is demonstrated. A rather simple deep learning network was adopted and trained for tutorial purpose. A test set distinct from the training set was formed to assess the validity of the approach. The measured mean absolute difference value was 18.9 months, and the concordance correlation coefficient was 0.78. It is shown that the proposed deep learning-based neural network can be used to estimate a subject's age from hand X-ray images, which eliminates the need for tedious atlas look-ups in clinical environments and should improve the time and cost efficiency of the estimation process.

  12. Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

    2015-11-01

    In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  13. Systematic feature selection improves accuracy of methylation-based forensic age estimation in Han Chinese males.

    PubMed

    Feng, Lei; Peng, Fuduan; Li, Shanfei; Jiang, Li; Sun, Hui; Ji, Anquan; Zeng, Changqing; Li, Caixia; Liu, Fan

    2018-03-23

    Estimating individual age from biomarkers may provide key information facilitating forensic investigations. Recent progress has shown DNA methylation at age-associated CpG sites as the most informative biomarkers for estimating the individual age of an unknown donor. Optimal feature selection plays a critical role in determining the performance of the final prediction model. In this study we investigate methylation levels at 153 age-associated CpG sites from 21 previously reported genomic regions using the EpiTYPER system for their predictive power on individual age in 390 Han Chinese males ranging from 15 to 75 years of age. We conducted a systematic feature selection using a stepwise backward multiple linear regression analysis as well as an exhaustive searching algorithm. Both approaches identified the same subset of 9 CpG sites, which in linear combination provided the optimal model fitting with mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 2.89 years of age and explainable variance (R 2 ) of 0.92. The final model was validated in two independent Han Chinese male samples (validation set 1, N = 65, MAD = 2.49, R 2  = 0.95, and validation set 2, N = 62, MAD = 3.36, R 2  = 0.89). Other competing models such as support vector machine and artificial neural network did not outperform the linear model to any noticeable degree. The validation set 1 was additionally analyzed using Pyrosequencing technology for cross-platform validation and was termed as validation set 3. Directly applying our model, in which the methylation levels were detected by the EpiTYPER system, to the data from pyrosequencing technology showed, however, less accurate results in terms of MAD (validation set 3, N = 65 Han Chinese males, MAD = 4.20, R 2  = 0.93), suggesting the presence of a batch effect between different data generation platforms. This batch effect could be partially overcome by a z-score transformation (MAD = 2.76, R 2  = 0.93). Overall, our

  14. Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

    PubMed

    Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

    2009-07-01

    Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

  15. Development of a biometric method to estimate age on hand radiographs.

    PubMed

    Remy, Floriane; Hossu, Gabriela; Cendre, Romain; Micard, Emilien; Mainard-Simard, Laurence; Felblinger, Jacques; Martrille, Laurent; Lalys, Loïc

    2017-02-01

    Age estimation of living individuals aged less than 13, 18 or 21 years, which are some relevant legal ages in most European countries, is currently problematic in the forensic context. Thus, numerous methods are available for legal authorities, although their efficiency can be discussed. For those reasons, we aimed to propose a new method, based on the biometric analysis of hand bones. 451 hand radiographs of French individuals under the age of 21 were retrospectively analyzed. This total sample was divided into three subgroups bounded by the relevant legal ages previously mentioned: 0-13, 13-18 and 18-21 years. On these radiographs, we numerically applied the osteometric board method used in anthropology, by including each metacarpal and proximal phalange of the five hand rays in the smallest rectangle possible. In that we can access their length and width information thanks to a measurement protocol developed precisely for our treatment with the ORS Visual ® software. Then, a statistical analysis was performed from these biometric data: a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) evaluated the probability for an individual to belong to one of the age group (0-13, 13-18 or 18-21); and several multivariate regression models were tested for the establishment of age estimation formulas for each of these age groups. The mean Correlation Coefficient between chronological age and both lengths and widths of hand bones is equal to 0.90 for the total sample. Repeatability and reproducibility were assessed. The LDA could more easily predict the belonging to the 0-13 age group. Age can be estimated with a mean standard error which never exceeds 1 year for the 95% confidence interval. Finally, compared to the literature, we can conclude that estimating an age from the biometric information of metacarpals and proximal phalanges is promising. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-classmore » SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.« less

  17. Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

  18. Estimating Gestational Age From Ultrasound Fetal Biometrics.

    PubMed

    Skupski, Daniel W; Owen, John; Kim, Sungduk; Fuchs, Karin M; Albert, Paul S; Grantz, Katherine L

    2017-08-01

    To compare the accuracy of a new formula with one developed in 1984 (and still in common use) and to develop and compare racial and ethnic-specific and racial and ethnic-neutral formulas. The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons was a prospective cohort study that recruited women in four self-reported racial-ethnic groups-non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and Asian-with singleton gestations from 12 U.S. centers (2009-2013). Women with a certain last menstrual period confirmed by first-trimester ultrasonogram had longitudinal fetal measurements by credentialed study ultrasonographers blinded to the gestational age at their five follow-up visits. Regression analyses were performed with linear mixed models to develop gestational age estimating formulas. Repeated cross-validation was used for validation. The estimation error was defined as the mean squared difference between the estimated and observed gestational age and was used to compare the formulas' accuracy. The new formula estimated the gestational age (±2 SD) within ±7 days from 14 to 20 weeks of gestation, ±10 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation, and ±17 days from 28 to 40 weeks of gestation. The new formula performed significantly better than a formula developed in 1984 with an estimation error of 10.4 compared with 11.2 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation and 17.0 compared with 19.8 days at 28-40 weeks of gestation, respectively. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas did not outperform the racial and ethnic-neutral formula. The NICHD gestational age estimation formula is associated with smaller errors than a well-established historical formula. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas are not superior to a racial-ethnic-neutral one.

  19. Age estimation by amino acid racemization in human teeth.

    PubMed

    Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu

    2010-11-01

    When an unidentified body is found, it is essential to establish the personal identity of the body in addition to investigating the cause of death. Identification is one of the most important functions of forensic dentistry. Fingerprint, dental, and DNA analysis can be used to accurately identify a body. However, if no information is available for identification, age estimation can contribute to the resolution of a case. The authors have been using aspartic acid racemization rates in dentin (D-aspartic acid/L-aspartic acid: D/L Asp) as an index for age estimation and have obtained satisfactory results. We report five cases of age estimation using the racemization method. In all five cases, estimated ages were accurate within a range ±3 years. We conclude that the racemization method is a reliable and practical method for estimating age. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  20. Handwritten document age classification based on handwriting styles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramaiah, Chetan; Kumar, Gaurav; Govindaraju, Venu

    2012-01-01

    Handwriting styles are constantly changing over time. We approach the novel problem of estimating the approximate age of Historical Handwritten Documents using Handwriting styles. This system will have many applications in handwritten document processing engines where specialized processing techniques can be applied based on the estimated age of the document. We propose to learn a distribution over styles across centuries using Topic Models and to apply a classifier over weights learned in order to estimate the approximate age of the documents. We present a comparison of different distance metrics such as Euclidean Distance and Hellinger Distance within this application.

  1. Dental age estimation: the role of probability estimates at the 10 year threshold.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Victoria S; McDonald, Fraser; Neil, Monica; Roberts, Graham

    2014-08-01

    The use of probability at the 18 year threshold has simplified the reporting of dental age estimates for emerging adults. The availability of simple to use widely available software has enabled the development of the probability threshold for individual teeth in growing children. Tooth development stage data from a previous study at the 10 year threshold were reused to estimate the probability of developing teeth being above or below the 10 year thresh-hold using the NORMDIST Function in Microsoft Excel. The probabilities within an individual subject are averaged to give a single probability that a subject is above or below 10 years old. To test the validity of this approach dental panoramic radiographs of 50 female and 50 male children within 2 years of the chronological age were assessed with the chronological age masked. Once the whole validation set of 100 radiographs had been assessed the masking was removed and the chronological age and dental age compared. The dental age was compared with chronological age to determine whether the dental age correctly or incorrectly identified a validation subject as above or below the 10 year threshold. The probability estimates correctly identified children as above or below on 94% of occasions. Only 2% of the validation group with a chronological age of less than 10 years were assigned to the over 10 year group. This study indicates the very high accuracy of assignment at the 10 year threshold. Further work at other legally important age thresholds is needed to explore the value of this approach to the technique of age estimation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Age estimation using cortical surface pattern combining thickness with curvatures

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jieqiong; Li, Wenjing; Miao, Wen; Dai, Dai; Hua, Jing; He, Huiguang

    2014-01-01

    Brain development and healthy aging have been proved to follow a specific pattern, which, in turn, can be applied to help doctors diagnose mental diseases. In this paper, we design a cortical surface pattern (CSP) combining the cortical thickness with curvatures, which constructs an accurate human age estimation model with relevance vector regression. We test our model with two public databases. One is the IXI database (360 healthy subjects aging from 20 to 82 years old were selected), and the other is the INDI database (303 subjects aging from 7 to 22 years old were selected). The results show that our model can achieve as small as 4.57 years deviation in the IXI database and 1.38 years deviation in the INDI database. Furthermore, we employ this surface pattern to age groups classification, and get a remarkably high accuracy (97.77%) and a significantly high sensitivity/specificity (97.30%/98.10%). These results suggest that our designed CSP combining thickness with curvatures is stable and sensitive to brain development, and it is much more powerful than voxel-based morphometry used in previous methods for age estimation. PMID:24395657

  3. The applicability of dental wear in age estimation for a modern American population.

    PubMed

    Faillace, Katie E; Bethard, Jonathan D; Marks, Murray K

    2017-12-01

    Though applied in bioarchaeology, dental wear is an underexplored age indicator in the biological anthropology of contemporary populations, although research has been conducted on dental attrition in forensic contexts (Kim et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 45, 303; Prince et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 53, 588; Yun et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 52, 678). The purpose of this study is to apply and adapt existing techniques for age estimation based on dental wear to a modern American population, with the aim of producing accurate age range estimates for individuals from an industrialized context. Methodologies following Yun and Prince were applied to a random sample from the University of New Mexico (n = 583) and Universidade de Coimbra (n = 50) cast and skeletal collections. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between tooth wear scores and age. Application of both Yun et al. () and Prince et al. () methodologies resulted in inaccurate age estimates. Recalibrated sectioning points correctly classified individuals as over or under 50 years for 88% of the sample. Linear regression demonstrated 60% of age estimates fell within ±10 years of the actual age, and accuracy improved for individuals under 45 years, with 74% of predictions within ±10 years. This study demonstrates age estimation from dental wear is possible for modern populations, with comparable age intervals to other established methods. It provides a quantifiable method of seriation into "older" and "younger" adult categories, and provides more reliable age interval estimates than cranial sutures in instances where only the skull is available. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Forensic individual age estimation with DNA: From initial approaches to methylation tests.

    PubMed

    Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Lareu, M V

    2017-07-01

    Individual age estimation is a key factor in forensic science analysis that can provide very useful information applicable to criminal, legal, and anthropological investigations. Forensic age inference was initially based on morphological inspection or radiography and only later began to adopt molecular approaches. However, a lack of accuracy or technical problems hampered the introduction of these DNA-based methodologies in casework analysis. A turning point occurred when the epigenetic signature of DNA methylation was observed to gradually change during an individual´s lifespan. In the last four years, the number of publications reporting DNA methylation age-correlated changes has gradually risen and the forensic community now has a range of age methylation tests applicable to forensic casework. Most forensic age predictor models have been developed based on blood DNA samples, but additional tissues are now also being explored. This review assesses the most widely adopted genes harboring methylation sites, detection technologies, statistical age-predictive analyses, and potential causes of variation in age estimates. Despite the need for further work to improve predictive accuracy and establishing a broader range of tissues for which tests can analyze the most appropriate methylation sites, several forensic age predictors have now been reported that provide consistency in their prediction accuracies (predictive error of ±4 years); this makes them compelling tools with the potential to contribute key information to help guide criminal investigations. Copyright © 2017 Central Police University.

  5. Dental radiographic indicators, a key to age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Panchbhai, AS

    2011-01-01

    Objective The present review article is aimed at describing the radiological methods utilized for human age identification. Methods The application and importance of radiological methods in human age assessment was discussed through the literature survey. Results Following a literature search, 46 articles were included in the study and the relevant information is depicted in the article. Dental tissue is often preserved indefinitely after death. Implementation of radiography is based on the assessment of the extent of calcification of teeth and in turn the degree of formation of crown and root structures, along with the sequence and the stages of eruption. Several radiological techniques can be used to assist in both individual and general identification, including determination of gender, ethnic group and age. The radiographic method is a simpler and cheaper method of age identification compared with histological and biochemical methods. Radiographic and tomographic images have become an essential aid for human identification in forensic dentistry, particularly with the refinement of techniques and the incorporation of information technology resources. Conclusion Based on an appropriate knowledge of the available methods, forensic dentists can choose the most appropriate since the validity of age estimation crucially depends on the method used and its proper application. The multifactorial approach will lead to optimum age assessment. The legal requirements also have to be considered. PMID:21493876

  6. Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development.

    PubMed

    Alshihri, Amin M; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P < 0.05) from the mean chronological age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage "H" most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results.

  7. Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development

    PubMed Central

    Alshihri, Amin M.; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. Materials and Methods: The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Results: Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P < 0.05) from the mean chronological age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage “H” most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Conclusion: Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results. PMID:25202206

  8. Estimation of Stratospheric Age Spectrum from Chemical Tracers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Polansky, Brian

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a technique to diagnose the stratospheric age spectrum and estimate the mean age of air using the distributions of at least four constituents with different photochemical lifetimes. We demonstrate that the technique works using a 3D CTM and then apply the technique to UMS CLAES January 1993 observations of CFC11, CFC12, CH4 and N2O. Our results are generally in agreement with mean age of air estimates from the chemical model and from observations of SF6 and CO2; however, the mean age estimates show an intrusion of very young tropical air into the mid-latitude stratosphere. This feature is consistent with mixing of high N20 air out of the tropics during the westerly phase of the QBO.

  9. Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

    PubMed

    Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

    2016-07-01

    Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. [Age and time estimation during different types of activity].

    PubMed

    Gareev, E M; Osipova, L G

    1980-01-01

    The study was concerned with the age characteristics of verbal and operative estimation of time intervals filled with different types of mental and physical activity as well as those free of it. The experiment was conducted on 85 subjects, 7--24 years of age. In all age groups and in both forms of time estimation (except verbal estimation in 10--12 years old children) there was a significant connection between the interval estimation and the type of activity. In adults and in 7--8 years old children, the connection was significantly tighter in operative estimations than in verbal ones. Unlike senior school children and adults, in 7--12 years old children there were sharp differences in precision between operative and verbal estimations and a discordance of their changes under the influence of activity. Precision and variability were rather similar in all age groups. It is suggested that the obtained data show heterochronity and a different rate of development of the higher nervous activity mechanisms providing for reflection of time in the form of verbal and voluntary motor reactions to the given interval.

  11. Walleye age estimation using otoliths and dorsal spines: Preparation techniques and sampling guidelines based on sex and total length

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Isermann, Daniel A.; Koenigs, Ryan P.

    2017-01-01

    We used dorsal spines and otoliths from 735 Walleye Sander vitreus collected from 35 Wisconsin water bodies to evaluate whether 1) otolith and dorsal spine cross sections provided age estimates similar to simpler methods of preparation (e.g., whole otoliths and dorsal spines, cracked otoliths); and 2) between-reader precision and differences between spine and otolith ages varied in relation to total length (TL), sex, and growth rate. Ages estimated from structures prepared using simpler techniques were generally similar to ages estimated using thin sections of dorsal spines and otoliths, suggesting that, in some instances, much of the additional processing time and specialized equipment associated with thin sectioning could be avoided. Overall, between-reader precision was higher for sectioned otoliths (mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 3.28%; standard error [SE] = 0.33%) than for sectioned dorsal spines (mean CV = 9.20%; SE = 0.56%). When using sectioned otoliths for age assignment, between-reader precision did not vary between sexes or growth categories (i.e., fast, moderate, slow), but between-reader precision was higher for females than males when using sectioned dorsal spines. Dorsal spines were generally effective at replicating otolith ages for male Walleye <450 mm TL and female Walleye <600 mm TL, suggesting that dorsal spines can be used to estimate ages for male Walleye <450 mm TL and female Walleye <600 mm TL. If sex is unknown, we suggest dorsal spines be used to estimate ages for Walleye <450 mm TL, but that otoliths be used for fish >450 mm TL. Our results provide useful guidance on structure and preparation technique selection for Walleye age estimation, thereby allowing biologists to develop sampling guidelines that could be implemented using information that is always (TL) or often (sex) available at the time of fish collection.

  12. Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.

    1999-01-01

    The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

  13. Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

    2012-03-01

    The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of

  14. 78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-30

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012... estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each... notice that the estimates of the voting age population for July 1, 2012, for each state and the District...

  15. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

    PubMed Central

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

  16. Menstrual versus clinical estimate of gestational age dating in the United States: temporal trends and variability in indices of perinatal outcomes.

    PubMed

    Ananth, Cande V

    2007-09-01

    Accurate estimation of gestational age early in pregnancy is paramount for obstetric care decisions and for determining fetal growth and other conditions that may necessitate timing the iatrogenic intervention or delivery. We sought to examine temporal changes in the distributions of two measures of gestational age, namely, those based on menstrual dating and a clinical estimate. We further sought to evaluate relative comparisons and variability in indices of perinatal outcomes. We utilised the Natality data files in the US, 1990-2002 comprising women that delivered a singleton livebirth between 22 and 44 weeks gestation (n = 42 689 603). Changes were shown in the distributions of gestational age based on menstrual vs. clinical estimate between 1990 and 2002, as well as changes in the proportions of preterm (<37, <32 and <28 weeks) and post-term (>or=42 weeks) birth, and small- (SGA; <10th percentile) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA; birthweight >90th percentile) births. While the absolute rates of preterm birth <37 weeks, SGA and LGA births were lower based on the clinical estimate of gestational age relative to that based on menstrual dating, the increases in preterm birth rate between 1990 and 2002 were fairly similar between the two measures of gestational dating. However, the decline in post-term births was larger, based on the clinical estimate (-73.8%), than on the menstrual estimate (-36.6%) between 1990 and 2002. While the clinical estimate of gestational age appears to provide a reasonably good approximation to the menstrual estimate, disregarding the clinical estimate of gestational age may ignore the advantages of gestational age assessment in modern obstetrics.

  17. Using age on clothes size label to estimate weight in emergency paediatric patients.

    PubMed

    Elgie, Laura D; Williams, Andrew R

    2012-10-01

    To study formulae that estimate children's weight using their actual age. To determine whether using the age on their clothes size label in these formulae can estimate weight when their actual age is unknown. The actual age and age on the clothes labels of 188 children were inserted into formulae that estimate children's weight. These estimates were compared with their actual weight. Bland-Altman plots calculated the precision and accuracy of each of these estimates. In all formulae, using age on the clothes sizes label provided a more precise estimate than the child's actual age. In emergencies where a child's age is unknown, use of the age on their clothes label in weight-estimating formulae yields acceptable weight estimates. Even in situations where a child's age is known, the age on their clothes label may provide a more accurate and precise weight estimate than the actual age.

  18. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    PubMed

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

  19. Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

    PubMed Central

    Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

  20. A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.

    2015-08-01

    Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.

  1. Estimation of Gestational Age: Implications for Developmental Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiPietro, Janet A.; Allen, Marilee C.

    1991-01-01

    Reviews prenatal and postnatal methods of gestational age estimation and evaluates implementation of this information in research. Recommendations concerning the assignment of gestational age in the perinatal period and the use of age correction for preterm infants are offered. (Author/BC)

  2. Performance of Willem's dental age estimation method in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Wan Mokhtar, Ilham; Rajasekharan, Sivaprakash; Overholser, Rosanna; Martens, Luc

    2017-11-01

    Through numerous validation and method comparison studies on different populations, the Willems method exhibited a superior accuracy. This article aims to systematically examine how accurate the application of Willems dental age method on children of different age groups and its performance based on various populations and regions. A strategic literature search of PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE and hand searching were used to identify the studies published up to September 2014 that estimated the dental age using the Willems method (modified Demirjian), with a populations, intervention, comparisons and outcomes (PICO) search strategy using MeSH keywords, focusing on the question: How much Willems method deviates from the chronological age in estimating age in children? Standardized mean differences were calculated for difference of dental age to chronological age by using random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate potential heterogeneity. Of 116 titles retrieved based on the standardized search strategy, only 19 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis. The pooled estimates were separately kept as underestimation (n=7) and overestimation (n=12) of chronological age groups for both genders according to primary studies. On absolute values, females (underestimated by 0.13; 95% CI: 0.09-0.18 and overestimated by 0.27; 95% CI: 0.17-0.36) exhibited better accuracy than males (underestimated by 0.28; 95% CI: 0.14-0.42 and overestimated by 0.33; 95% CI: 0.22-0.44). For comparison purposes, the overall pooled estimate overestimated the age by 0.10 (95% CI: -0.06 to 0.26) and 0.09 (95% CI: -0.09 to 0.19) for males and females, respectively. There was no significant difference between the young and older child in subgroup analysis using omnibus test. The mean age between different regions exhibited no statistically significant. The use of Willems method is appropriate to estimate age in children considering its

  3. An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan, Honduras.

    PubMed

    Storey, Rebecca

    2007-01-01

    Comparison of different adult age estimation methods on the same skeletal sample with unknown ages could forward paleodemographic inference, while researchers sort out various controversies. The original aging method for the auricular surface (Lovejoy et al., 1985a) assigned an age estimation based on several separate characteristics. Researchers have found this original method hard to apply. It is usually forgotten that before assigning an age, there was a seriation, an ordering of all available individuals from youngest to oldest. Thus, age estimation reflected the place of an individual within its sample. A recent article (Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002) proposed a revised method that scores theses various characteristics into age stages, which can then be used with a Bayesian method to estimate an adult age distribution for the sample. Both methods were applied to the adult auricular surfaces of a Pre-Columbian Maya skeletal population from Copan, Honduras and resulted in age distributions with significant numbers of older adults. However, contrary to the usual paleodemographic distribution, one Bayesian estimation based on uniform prior probabilities yielded a population with 57% of the ages at death over 65, while another based on a high mortality life table still had 12% of the individuals aged over 75 years. The seriation method yielded an age distribution more similar to that known from preindustrial historical situations, without excessive longevity of adults. Paleodemography must still wrestle with its elusive goal of accurate adult age estimation from skeletons, a necessary base for demographic study of past populations. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc

  4. Precision of four otolith techniques for estimating age of white perch from a thermally altered reservoir

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Snow, Richard A.; Porta, Michael J.; Long, James M.

    2018-01-01

    The White Perch Morone americana is an invasive species in many Midwestern states and is widely distributed in reservoir systems, yet little is known about the species' age structure and population dynamics. White Perch were first observed in Sooner Reservoir, a thermally altered cooling reservoir in Oklahoma, by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation in 2006. It is unknown how thermally altered systems like Sooner Reservoir may affect the precision of White Perch age estimates. Previous studies have found that age structures from Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and Bluegills Lepomis macrochirus from thermally altered reservoirs had false annuli, which increased error when estimating ages. Our objective was to quantify the precision of White Perch age estimates using four sagittal otolith preparation techniques (whole, broken, browned, and stained). Because Sooner Reservoir is thermally altered, we also wanted to identify the best month to collect a White Perch age sample based on aging precision. Ages of 569 White Perch (20–308 mm TL) were estimated using the four techniques. Age estimates from broken, stained, and browned otoliths ranged from 0 to 8 years; whole‐view otolith age estimates ranged from 0 to 7 years. The lowest mean coefficient of variation (CV) was obtained using broken otoliths, whereas the highest CV was observed using browned otoliths. July was the most precise month (lowest mean CV) for estimating age of White Perch, whereas April was the least precise month (highest mean CV). These results underscore the importance of knowing the best method to prepare otoliths for achieving the most precise age estimates and the best time of year to obtain those samples, as these factors may affect other estimates of population dynamics.

  5. Age estimations of wild pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus, Forbes & Richardson 1905) based on pectoral fin spines, otoliths and bomb radiocarbon: inferences on recruitment in the dam-fragmented Missouri River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Braaten, P. J.; Campana, S. E.; Fuller, D. B.; Lott, R. D.; Bruch, R. M.; Jordan, G. R.

    2015-01-01

    An extant stock of wild pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus persists in the fragmented upper Missouri River basin of Montana and North Dakota. Although successful spawning and hatch of embryos has been verified, long-term catch records suggest that recruitment has not occurred for several decades as the extant stock lacks juvenile size classes and is comprised exclusively of large, presumably old individuals. Ages of 11 deceased (death years 1997–2007) wild S. albus (136–166 cm fork length) were estimated based on pectoral fin spines, sagittal otoliths and bomb radiocarbon (14C) assays of otoliths to test the hypothesis that members of this stock are old and to provide inferences on recruitment years that produced the extant stock. Age estimations based on counts of presumed annuli were about 2 years greater for otoliths (mean = 51 years, range = 43–57 years) than spines (mean = 49 years, range = 37–59 years). Based on 14C assays, confirmed birth years for all individuals occurred prior to 1957, thus establishing known longevity of at least 50 years. Estimated age based on presumed otolith annuli for one S. albus was validated to at least age 49. Although 14C assays confirmed pre-1957 birth years for all S. albus, only 56% of estimated ages from spines and 91% of estimated ages from otoliths depicted pre-1957 birth years. Both ageing structures were subject to under-ageing error (up to 15 years). Lack of or severe curtailment of S. albus recruitment in the upper Missouri River basin since the mid-1950s closely parallels the 1953–1957 timeframe when a mainstem reservoir was constructed and started to fill. This reservoir may function as a system-wide stressor to diminish recruitment success of S. albus in the upper Missouri River basin.

  6. Age estimation using exfoliative cytology and radiovisiography: A comparative study.

    PubMed

    Nallamala, Shilpa; Guttikonda, Venkateswara Rao; Manchikatla, Praveen Kumar; Taneeru, Sravya

    2017-01-01

    Age estimation is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of an individual. Among various methods, exfoliative cytology (EC) is a unique, noninvasive technique, involving simple, and pain-free collection of intact cells from the oral cavity for microscopic examination. The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from the average cell size of their buccal smears calculated using image analysis morphometric software and the pulp-tooth area ratio in mandibular canine of the same individual using radiovisiography (RVG). Buccal smears were collected from 100 apparently healthy individuals. After fixation in 95% alcohol, the smears were stained using Papanicolaou stain. The average cell size was measured using image analysis software (Image-Pro Insight 8.0). The RVG images of mandibular canines were obtained, pulp and tooth areas were traced using AutoCAD 2010 software, and area ratio was calculated. The estimated age was then calculated using regression analysis. The paired t -test between chronological age and estimated age by cell size and pulp-tooth area ratio was statistically nonsignificant ( P > 0.05). In the present study, age estimated by pulp-tooth area ratio and EC yielded good results.

  7. Forensic age estimation based on magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: converting 2D staging into 3D staging.

    PubMed

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established methods to stage development of third molars for forensic age estimation are based on the evaluation of radiographs, which show a 2D projection. It has not been investigated whether these methods require any adjustments in order to apply them to stage third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which shows 3D information. To prospectively study root stage assessment of third molars in age estimation using 3 Tesla MRI and to compare this with panoramic radiographs, in order to provide considerations for converting 2D staging into 3D staging and to determine the decisive root. All third molars were evaluated in 52 healthy participants aged 14-26 years using MRI in three planes. Three staging methods were investigated by two observers. In sixteen of the participants, MRI findings were compared with findings on panoramic radiographs. Decisive roots were palatal in upper third molars and distal in lower third molars. Fifty-seven per cent of upper third molars were not assessable on the radiograph, while 96.9% were on MRI. Upper third molars were more difficult to evaluate on radiographs than on MRI (p < .001). Lower third molars were equally assessable on both imaging techniques (93.8% MRI, 98.4% radiograph), with no difference in level of difficulty (p = .375). Inter- and intra-observer agreement for evaluation was higher in MRI than in radiographs. In both imaging techniques lower third molars showed greater inter- and intra-observer agreement compared to upper third molars. MR images in the sagittal plane proved to be essential for staging. In age estimation, 3T MRI of third molars could be valuable. Some considerations are, however, necessary to transfer known staging methods to this 3D technique.

  8. Size at emergence improves accuracy of age estimates in forensically-useful beetle Creophilus maxillosus L. (Staphylinidae).

    PubMed

    Matuszewski, Szymon; Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna

    2018-02-05

    Insects colonizing human or animal cadavers may be used to estimate post-mortem interval (PMI) usually by aging larvae or pupae sampled on a crime scene. The accuracy of insect age estimates in a forensic context is reduced by large intraspecific variation in insect development time. Here we test the concept that insect size at emergence may be used to predict insect physiological age and accordingly to improve the accuracy of age estimates in forensic entomology. Using results of laboratory study on development of forensically-useful beetle Creophilus maxillosus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Staphylinidae) we demonstrate that its physiological age at emergence [i.e. thermal summation value (K) needed for emergence] fall with an increase of beetle size. In the validation study it was found that K estimated based on the adult insect size was significantly closer to the true K as compared to K from the general thermal summation model. Using beetle length at emergence as a predictor variable and male or female specific model regressing K against beetle length gave the most accurate predictions of age. These results demonstrate that size of C. maxillosus at emergence improves accuracy of age estimates in a forensic context.

  9. Probability of reduced renal function after contrast-enhanced CT: a model based on serum creatinine level, patient age, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

    PubMed

    Herts, Brian R; Schneider, Erika; Obuchowski, Nancy; Poggio, Emilio; Jain, Anil; Baker, Mark E

    2009-08-01

    The objectives of our study were to develop a model to predict the probability of reduced renal function after outpatient contrast-enhanced CT (CECT)--based on patient age, sex, and race and on serum creatinine level before CT or directly based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) before CT--and to determine the relationship between patients with changes in creatinine level that characterize contrast-induced nephropathy and patients with reduced GFR after CECT. Of 5,187 outpatients who underwent CECT, 963 (18.6%) had serum creatinine levels obtained within 6 months before and 4 days after CECT. The estimated GFR was calculated before and after CT using the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation. Pre-CT serum creatinine level, age, race, sex, and pre-CT estimated GFR were tested using multiple-variable logistic regression models to determine the probability of having an estimated GFR of < 60 and < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) after CECT. Two thirds of the patients were used to create and one third to test the models. We also determined discordance between patients who met standard definitions of contrast-induced nephropathy and those with a reduced estimated GFR after CECT. Significant (p < 0.002) predictors for a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were age, race, sex, pre-CT serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR. Sex, serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR were significant factors (p < 0.001) for predicting a post-CT estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). The probability is [exp(y) / (1 + exp(y))], where y = 6.21 - (0.10 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and y = 3.66 - (0.087 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A discrepancy between those who met contrast-induced nephropathy criteria by creatinine changes and those with a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was detected in 208 of the 963 patients (21.6%). The

  10. Absolute and estimated values of macular pigment optical density in young and aged Asian participants with or without age-related macular degeneration.

    PubMed

    Ozawa, Yoko; Shigeno, Yuta; Nagai, Norihiro; Suzuki, Misa; Kurihara, Toshihide; Minami, Sakiko; Hirano, Eri; Shinoda, Hajime; Kobayashi, Saori; Tsubota, Kazuo

    2017-08-29

    Lutein and zeaxanthin are suggested micronutrient supplements to prevent the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness worldwide. To monitor the levels of lutein/zeaxanthin in the macula, macular pigment optical density (MPOD) is measured. A commercially available device (MPSII®, Elektron Technology, Switzerland), using technology based on heterochromatic flicker photometry, can measure both absolute and estimated values of MPOD. However, whether the estimated value is applicable to Asian individuals and/or AMD patients remains to be determined. The absolute and estimated values of MPOD were measured using the MPSII® device in 77 participants with a best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) > 0.099 (logMAR score). The studied eyes included 17 young (20-29 years) healthy, 26 aged (>50 years) healthy, 18 aged and AMD-fellow, and 16 aged AMD eyes. The mean BCVA among the groups were not significantly different. Both absolute and estimated values were measurable in all eyes of young healthy group. However, absolute values were measurable in only 57.7%, 66.7%, and 43.8%, of the aged healthy, AMD-fellow, and AMD groups, respectively, and 56.7% of the eyes included in the 3 aged groups. In contrast, the estimated value was measurable in 84.6%, 88.9% and 93.8% of the groups, respectively, and 88.3% of eyes in the pooled aged group. The estimated value was correlated with absolute value in individuals from all groups by Spearman's correlation coefficient analyses (young healthy: R 2  = 0.885, P = 0.0001; aged healthy: R 2  = 0.765, P = 0.001; AMD-fellow: R 2  = 0.851, P = 0.0001; and AMD: R 2  = 0.860, P = 0.013). Using the estimated value, significantly lower MPOD values were found in aged AMD-related eyes, which included both AMD-fellow and AMD eyes, compared with aged healthy eyes by Student's t-test (P = 0.02). Absolute, in contrast to estimated, value was measurable in a limited number of aged participants

  11. Age estimation of burbot using pectoral fin rays, brachiostegal rays, and otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    Throughout much of its native distribution, burbot (Lota lota) is a species of conservation concern. Understanding dynamic rate functions is critical for the effective management of sensitive burbot populations, which necessitates accurate and precise age estimates. Managing sensitive burbot populations requires an accurate and precise non-lethal alternative. In an effort to identify a non-lethal ageing structure, we compared the precision of age estimates obtained from otoliths, pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays from 208 burbot collected from the Green River drainage, Wyoming. Additionally, we compared the accuracy of age estimates from pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays to those of otoliths. Dorsal fin rays were immediately deemed a poor ageing structure and removed from further analysis. Age-bias plots of consensus ages derived from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were appreciably different from those obtained from otoliths. Exact agreement between readers and reader confidence was highest for otoliths and lowest for branchiostegal rays. Age-bias plots indicated that age estimates obtained from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were substantially different from age estimates obtained from otoliths. Our results indicate that otoliths provide the most precise age estimates for burbot.

  12. Age estimation using exfoliative cytology and radiovisiography: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Nallamala, Shilpa; Guttikonda, Venkateswara Rao; Manchikatla, Praveen Kumar; Taneeru, Sravya

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of an individual. Among various methods, exfoliative cytology (EC) is a unique, noninvasive technique, involving simple, and pain-free collection of intact cells from the oral cavity for microscopic examination. Objective: The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from the average cell size of their buccal smears calculated using image analysis morphometric software and the pulp–tooth area ratio in mandibular canine of the same individual using radiovisiography (RVG). Materials and Methods: Buccal smears were collected from 100 apparently healthy individuals. After fixation in 95% alcohol, the smears were stained using Papanicolaou stain. The average cell size was measured using image analysis software (Image-Pro Insight 8.0). The RVG images of mandibular canines were obtained, pulp and tooth areas were traced using AutoCAD 2010 software, and area ratio was calculated. The estimated age was then calculated using regression analysis. Results: The paired t-test between chronological age and estimated age by cell size and pulp–tooth area ratio was statistically nonsignificant (P > 0.05). Conclusion: In the present study, age estimated by pulp–tooth area ratio and EC yielded good results. PMID:29657491

  13. Age estimation standards for a Western Australian population using the coronal pulp cavity index.

    PubMed

    Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is a vital aspect in creating a biological profile and aids investigators by narrowing down potentially matching identities from the available pool. In addition to routine casework, in the present global political scenario, age estimation in living individuals is required in cases of refugees, asylum seekers, human trafficking and to ascertain age of criminal responsibility. Thus robust methods that are simple, non-invasive and ethically viable are required. The aim of the present study is, therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the coronal pulp cavity index method, for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 450 orthopantomograms (220 females and 230 males) of Australian individuals were analyzed. Crown and coronal pulp chamber heights were measured in the mandibular left and right premolars, and the first and second molars. These measurements were then used to calculate the tooth coronal index. Data was analyzed using paired sample t-tests to assess bilateral asymmetry followed by simple linear and multiple regressions to develop age estimation models. The most accurate age estimation based on simple linear regression model was with mandibular right first molar (SEE ±8.271 years). Multiple regression models improved age prediction accuracy considerably and the most accurate model was with bilateral first and second molars (SEE ±6.692 years). This study represents the first investigation of this method in a Western Australian population and our results indicate that the method is suitable for forensic application. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  15. Estimating the age-specific duration of herpes zoster vaccine protection: a matter of model choice?

    PubMed

    Bilcke, Joke; Ogunjimi, Benson; Hulstaert, Frank; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel; Beutels, Philippe

    2012-04-05

    The estimation of herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is crucial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HZ vaccination. Published estimates for the duration of protection from the vaccine diverge substantially, although based on data from the same trial for a follow-up period of 5 years. Different models were used to obtain these estimates, but it is unclear which of these models is most appropriate (if any). Only one study estimated vaccine efficacy by age at vaccination and time since vaccination combined. Recently, data became available from the same trial for a follow-up period of 7 years. We aim to elaborate on estimating HZ vaccine efficacy (1) by estimating it as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination, (2) by comparing the fits of a range of models, and (3) by fitting these models on data for a follow-up period of 5 and 7 years. Although the models' fit to data are very comparable, they differ substantially in how they estimate vaccine efficacy to change as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination. An accurate estimation of HZ vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is hampered by the lack of insight in the biological processes underlying HZ vaccine protection, and by the fact that such data are currently not available in sufficient detail. Uncertainty about the choice of model to estimate this important parameter should be acknowledged in cost-effectiveness analyses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The effect of age and body composition on body mass estimation of males using the stature/bi-iliac method.

    PubMed

    Junno, Juho-Antti; Niskanen, Markku; Maijanen, Heli; Holt, Brigitte; Sladek, Vladimir; Niinimäki, Sirpa; Berner, Margit

    2018-02-01

    The stature/bi-iliac breadth method provides reasonably precise, skeletal frame size (SFS) based body mass (BM) estimations across adults as a whole. In this study, we examine the potential effects of age changes in anthropometric dimensions on the estimation accuracy of SFS-based body mass estimation. We use anthropometric data from the literature and our own skeletal data from two osteological collections to study effects of age on stature, bi-iliac breadth, body mass, and body composition, as they are major components behind body size and body size estimations. We focus on males, as relevant longitudinal data are based on male study samples. As a general rule, lean body mass (LBM) increases through adolescence and early adulthood until people are aged in their 30s or 40s, and starts to decline in the late 40s or early 50s. Fat mass (FM) tends to increase until the mid-50s and declines thereafter, but in more mobile traditional societies it may decline throughout adult life. Because BM is the sum of LBM and FM, it exhibits a curvilinear age-related pattern in all societies. Skeletal frame size is based on stature and bi-iliac breadth, and both of those dimensions are affected by age. Skeletal frame size based body mass estimation tends to increase throughout adult life in both skeletal and anthropometric samples because an age-related increase in bi-iliac breadth more than compensates for an age-related stature decline commencing in the 30s or 40s. Combined with the above-mentioned curvilinear BM change, this results in curvilinear estimation bias. However, for simulations involving low to moderate percent body fat, the stature/bi-iliac method works well in predicting body mass in younger and middle-aged adults. Such conditions are likely to have applied to most human paleontological and archaeological samples. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimated age and gender profile of individuals missed by a home-based HIV testing and counselling campaign in a Botswana community.

    PubMed

    Novitsky, Vlad; Bussmann, Hermann; Okui, Lillian; Logan, Andrew; Moyo, Sikhulile; van Widenfelt, Erik; Mmalane, Mompati; Lei, Quanhong; Holme, Molly P; Makhema, Joseph; Lockman, Shahin; Degruttola, Victor; Essex, M

    2015-01-01

    It would be useful to understand which populations are not reached by home-based HIV-1 testing and counselling (HTC) to improve strategies aimed at linking these individuals to care and reducing rates of onward HIV transmission. We present the results of a baseline home-based HTC (HBHTC) campaign aimed at counselling and testing residents aged 16 to 64 for HIV in the north-eastern sector of Mochudi, a community in Botswana with about 44,000 inhabitants. Collected data were compared with population references for Botswana, the United Nations (UN) estimates based on the National Census data and the Botswana AIDS Impact Survey IV (BAIS-IV). Analyzed data and references were stratified by age and gender. A total of 6238 age-eligible residents were tested for HIV-1; 1247 (20.0%; 95% CI 19.0 to 21.0%) were found to be HIV positive (23.7% of women vs. 13.4% of men). HIV-1 prevalence peaked at 44% in 35- to 39-year-old women and 32% in 40- to 44-year-old men. A lower HIV prevalence rate, 10.9% (95% CI 9.5 to 12.5%), was found among individuals tested for the first time. A significant gender gap was evident in all analyzed subsets. The existing HIV transmission network was analyzed by combining phylogenetic mapping and household structure. Between 62.4 and 71.8% of all HIV-positive individuals had detectable virus. When compared with the UN and BAIS-IV estimates, the proportion of men missed by the testing campaign (48.5%; 95% CI 47.0 to 50.0%) was significantly higher than the proportion of missed women (14.2%; 95% CI 13.2 to 15.3%; p<0.0001). The estimated proportion of missed men peaked at about 60% in the age group 30 to 39 years old. The proportions of missed women were substantially smaller, at approximately 28% within the age groups 30 to 34 and 45 to 49 years old. The HBHTC campaign seems to be an efficient tool for reaching individuals who have never been tested previously in southern African communities. However, about half of men from 16 to 64 years old were not

  18. Age Estimation in Forensic Sciences

    PubMed Central

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L.

    2010-01-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955–1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 (14C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2 = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 ± 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 ± 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905

  19. Estimating Building Age with 3d GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biljecki, F.; Sindram, M.

    2017-10-01

    Building datasets (e.g. footprints in OpenStreetMap and 3D city models) are becoming increasingly available worldwide. However, the thematic (attribute) aspect is not always given attention, as many of such datasets are lacking in completeness of attributes. A prominent attribute of buildings is the year of construction, which is useful for some applications, but its availability may be scarce. This paper explores the potential of estimating the year of construction (or age) of buildings from other attributes using random forest regression. The developed method has a two-fold benefit: enriching datasets and quality control (verification of existing attributes). Experiments are carried out on a semantically rich LOD1 dataset of Rotterdam in the Netherlands using 9 attributes. The results are mixed: the accuracy in the estimation of building age depends on the available information used in the regression model. In the best scenario we have achieved predictions with an RMSE of 11 years, but in more realistic situations with limited knowledge about buildings the error is much larger (RMSE = 26 years). Hence the main conclusion of the paper is that inferring building age with 3D city models is possible to a certain extent because it reveals the approximate period of construction, but precise estimations remain a difficult task.

  20. A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications

  1. Telemetry-based mortality estimates of juvenile spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedl, Sarah E.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Scharf, Frederick S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

    2013-01-01

    We estimated natural mortality rates (M) of age-1 Spot Leiostomus xanthurus by using a sonic telemetry approach. Sonic transmitters were surgically implanted into a total of 123 age-1 Spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks during spring 2009 and 2010, and the fish were monitored by using a stationary acoustic receiver array and manual tracking. Fates of telemetered Spot were inferred based on telemetry information from estimated locations and swimming speeds. Potential competitors of age-1 Spot were assessed through simultaneous otter trawl sampling, while potential predators of Spot were collected using gill nets and trammel nets. The number of inferred natural mortalities was zero in 2009 (based on 29 telemetered Spot at risk) and four in 2010 (based on 52 fish at risk), with fish being at risk for up to about 70 d each year. Catches of potential competitors or predators did not differ between years, and age-1 Spot were not found in analyzed stomach contents of potential predators. Our estimated 30-d M of 0.03 (95% credible interval = 0.01–0.07) was lower than that predicted from weight-based (M = 0.07) and life-history-based (M = 0.06–0.36) estimates. Our field-based estimate of M for age-1 Spot in this estuarine system can assist in the assessment and management of Spot by allowing a direct comparison with M-values predicted from fish size or life history characteristics. The field telemetry and statistical analysis techniques developed here provide guidance for future telemetry studies of relatively small fish in open, dynamic habitat systems, as they highlight strengths and weaknesses of using a telemetry approach to estimate M.

  2. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  3. Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  4. DNA methylation markers in combination with skeletal and dental ages to improve age estimation in children.

    PubMed

    Shi, Lei; Jiang, Fan; Ouyang, Fengxiu; Zhang, Jun; Wang, Zhimin; Shen, Xiaoming

    2018-03-01

    Age estimation is critical in forensic science, in competitive sports and games and in other age-related fields, but the current methods are suboptimal. The combination of age-associated DNA methylation markers with skeletal age (SA) and dental age (DA) may improve the accuracy and precision of age estimation, but no study has examined this topic. In the current study, we measured SA (GP, TW3-RUS, and TW3-Carpal methods) and DA (Demirjian and Willems methods) by X-ray examination in 124 Chinese children (78 boys and 46 girls) aged 6-15 years. To identify age-associated CpG sites, we analyzed methylome-wide DNA methylation profiling by using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip system in 48 randomly selected children. Five CpG sites were identified as associated with chronologic age (CA), with an absolute value of Pearson's correlation coefficient (r)>0.5 (p<0.01) and a false discovery rate<0.01. The validation of age-associated CpG sites was performed using droplet digital PCR techniques in all 124 children. After validation, four CpG sites for boys and five CpG sites for girls were further adopted to build the age estimation model with SA and DA using multivariate linear stepwise regressions. These CpG sites were located at 4 known genes: DDO, PRPH2, DHX8, and ITGA2B and at one unknown gene with the Illumina ID number of 22398226. The accuracy of age estimation methods was compared according to the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The best single measure for SA was the TW3-RUS method (MAE=0.69years, RMSE=0.95years) in boys, and the GP method (MAE=0.74years, RMSE=0.94years) in girls. For DA, the Willems method was the best single measure for both boys (MAE=0.63years, RMSE=0.78years) and girls (MAE=0.54years, RMSE=0.68years). The models that incorporated SA and DA with the methylation levels of age-associated CpG sites provided the highest accuracy of age estimation in both boys (MAE=0.47years, R 2 =0.886) and girls (MAE=0.33years, R

  5. The French-Canadian data set of Demirjian for dental age estimation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

    2013-07-01

    Estimation of age of an individual can be performed by evaluating the pattern of dental development. A dataset for age estimation based on the dental maturity of a French-Canadian population was published over 35 years ago and has become the most widely accepted dataset. The applicability of this dataset has been tested on different population groups. To estimate the observed differences between Chronological age (CA) and Dental age (DA) when the French Canadian dataset was used to estimate the age of different population groups. A systematic search of literature for papers utilizing the French Canadian dataset for age estimation was performed. All language articles from PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were electronically searched for terms 'Demirjian' and 'Dental age' published between January 1973 and December 2011. A hand search of articles was also conducted. A total of 274 studies were identified from which 34 studies were included for qualitative analysis and 12 studies were included for quantitative assessment and meta-analysis. When synthesizing the estimation results from different population groups, on average, the Demirjian dataset overestimated the age of females by 0.65 years (-0.10 years to +2.82 years) and males by 0.60 years (-0.23 years to +3.04 years). The French Canadian dataset overestimates the age of the subjects by more than six months and hence this dataset should be used only with considerable caution when estimating age of group of subjects of any global population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  6. The impact of case definition on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prevalence estimates in community-based samples of school-aged children.

    PubMed

    McKeown, Robert E; Holbrook, Joseph R; Danielson, Melissa L; Cuffe, Steven P; Wolraich, Mark L; Visser, Susanna N

    2015-01-01

    To determine the impact of varying attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Parent and teacher reports identified high- and low-screen children with ADHD from elementary schools in 2 states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV), and up to 4 additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. At baseline 1,060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least 1 follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported 6 or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI = 18.1%-23.2%) and 29.8% (CI = 24.5%-35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age 7 years (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI = 14.7%-18.0%) and 17.5% (CI = 13.3%-22.8%); requiring at least 4 teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI = 7.4%-10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased the 8.9% estimate to 11.3% (CI = 9.5%-13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age 7 onset (CI = 5.9%-11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI = 7.6%-21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the overall estimate to 13.1% (CI = 7.7%-21.5%). These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Radiologic assessment of third molar tooth and spheno-occipital synchondrosis for age estimation: a multiple regression analysis study.

    PubMed

    Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan

    2016-05-01

    For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P < 0.001) and also between age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P < 0.001). Based on the results obtained, an age determination formula using these scores was established.

  8. The MiAge Calculator: a DNA methylation-based mitotic age calculator of human tissue types.

    PubMed

    Youn, Ahrim; Wang, Shuang

    2018-01-01

    Cell division is important in human aging and cancer. The estimation of the number of cell divisions (mitotic age) of a given tissue type in individuals is of great interest as it allows not only the study of biological aging (using a new molecular aging target) but also the stratification of prospective cancer risk. Here, we introduce the MiAge Calculator, a mitotic age calculator based on a novel statistical framework, the MiAge model. MiAge is designed to quantitatively estimate mitotic age (total number of lifetime cell divisions) of a tissue using the stochastic replication errors accumulated in the epigenetic inheritance process during cell divisions. With the MiAge model, the MiAge Calculator was built using the training data of DNA methylation measures of 4,020 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples from eight TCGA cancer types and was tested using the testing data of DNA methylation measures of 2,221 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples of five other TCGA cancer types. We showed that within each of the thirteen cancer types studied, the estimated mitotic age is universally accelerated in tumor tissues compared to adjacent normal tissues. Across the thirteen cancer types, we showed that worse cancer survivals are associated with more accelerated mitotic age in tumor tissues. Importantly, we demonstrated the utility of mitotic age by showing that the integration of mitotic age and clinical information leads to improved survival prediction in six out of the thirteen cancer types studied. The MiAge Calculator is available at http://www.columbia.edu/∼sw2206/softwares.htm .

  9. Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

    1997-01-01

    Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

  10. Risk Factors for Learning-Related Behavior Problems at 24 Months of Age: Population-Based Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morgan, Paul L.; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Maczuga, Steven

    2009-01-01

    We used a large sample of singleton children to estimate the effects of socioeconomic status (SES), race/ethnicity, gender, additional socio-demographics, gestational and birth factors, and parenting on children's risk for learning-related behavior problems at 24 months of age. We investigated to what extent these factors increased a child's risk…

  11. A review on lithium-ion battery ageing mechanisms and estimations for automotive applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barré, Anthony; Deguilhem, Benjamin; Grolleau, Sébastien; Gérard, Mathias; Suard, Frédéric; Riu, Delphine

    2013-11-01

    Lithium-ion batteries have become the focus of research interest, thanks to their numerous benefits for vehicle applications. One main limitation of these technologies resides in the battery ageing. The effects of battery ageing limit its performance and occur throughout their whole life, whether the battery is used or not, which is a major drawback on real usage. Furthermore, degradations take place in every condition, but in different proportions as usage and external conditions interact to provoke degradations. The ageing phenomena are highly complicated to characterize due to the factors cross-dependence. This paper reviews various aspects of recent research and developments, from different fields, on lithium-ion battery ageing mechanisms and estimations. In this paper is presented a summary of techniques, models and algorithms used for battery ageing estimation (SOH, RUL), going from a detailed electrochemical approach to statistical methods based on data. In order to present the accuracy of currently used methods, their respective characteristics are discussed. Remaining challenges are deeply detailed, along with a discussion about the ideal method resulting from existing methods.

  12. Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites-National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1992-2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hinkle, Stephen R.; Shapiro, Stephanie D.; Plummer, Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Widman, Peggy K.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Wayland, Julian E.

    2011-01-01

    This report documents selected age data interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers in groundwater from 1,399 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites across the United States. The tracers of interest were chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis primarily were from wells representing two types of NAWQA groundwater studies - Land-Use Studies (shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings) and Major-Aquifer Studies (wells, usually domestic supply wells, in principal aquifers and representing the shallow, used resource). Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) associated with Land-Use Studies also were included. Tracer samples were collected between 1992 and 2005, although two networks sampled from 2006 to 2007 were included because of network-specific needs. Tracer data from other NAWQA Program components (Flow System Studies, which are assessments of processes and trends along groundwater flow paths, and various topical studies) were not compiled herein. Tracer data from NAWQA Land-Use Studies and Major-Aquifer Studies that previously had been interpreted and published are compiled herein (as piston-flow ages), but have not been reinterpreted. Tracer data that previously had not been interpreted and published are evaluated using documented methods and compiled with aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF6), estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages, and selected ancillary data, such as redox indicators, well construction, and major dissolved gases (N2, O2, Ar, CH4, and CO2). Tracer-based piston-flow ages documented in this report are simplistic representations of the tracer data. Tracer-based piston-flow ages are a convenient means of conceptualizing groundwater age. However, the piston

  13. Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, James L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

    1997-01-01

    We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

  14. Age Spreads and the Temperature Dependence of Age Estimates in Upper Sco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Qiliang; Herczeg, Gregory J.; Rizzuto, Aaron

    2017-06-01

    Past estimates for the age of the Upper Sco Association are typically 11–13 Myr for intermediate-mass stars and 4–5 Myr for low-mass stars. In this study, we simulate populations of young stars to investigate whether this apparent dependence of estimated age on spectral type may be explained by the star formation history of the association. Solar and intermediate mass stars begin their pre-main sequence evolution on the Hayashi track, with fully convective interiors and cool photospheres. Intermediate-mass stars quickly heat up and transition onto the radiative Henyey track. As a consequence, for clusters in which star formation occurs on a timescale similar to that of the transition from a convective to a radiative interior, discrepancies in ages will arise when ages are calculated as a function of temperature instead of mass. Simple simulations of a cluster with constant star formation over several Myr may explain about half of the difference in inferred ages versus photospheric temperature; speculative constructions that consist of a constant star formation followed by a large supernova-driven burst could fully explain the differences, including those between F and G stars where evolutionary tracks may be more accurate. The age spreads of low-mass stars predicted from these prescriptions for star formation are consistent with the observed luminosity spread of Upper Sco. The conclusion that a lengthy star formation history will yield a temperature dependence in ages is expected from the basic physics of pre-main sequence evolution, and is qualitatively robust to the large uncertainties in pre-main sequence evolutionary models.

  15. Estimating the color of maxillary central incisors based on age and gender

    PubMed Central

    Gozalo-Diaz, David; Johnston, William M.; Wee, Alvin G.

    2008-01-01

    Statement of problem There is no scientific information regarding the selection of the color of teeth for edentulous patients. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate linear regression models that may be used to predict color parameters for central incisors of edentulous patients based on some characteristics of dentate subjects. Material and methods A spectroradiometer and an external light source were set in a noncontacting 45/0 degree (45-degree illumination and 0-degree observer) optical configuration to measure the color of subjects’ vital craniofacial structures (maxillary central incisor, attached gingiva, and facial skin). The subjects (n=120) were stratified into 5 age groups with 4 racial groups and balanced for gender. Linear first-order regression was used to determine the significant factors (α=.05) in the prediction model for each color direction of the color of the maxillary central incisor. Age, gender, and color of the other craniofacial structures were studied as potential predictors. Final predictions in each color direction were based only on the statistically significant factors, and then the color differences between observed and predicted CIELAB values for the central incisors were calculated and summarized. Results The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 36% of the total variability in L*. The statistically significant predictor of age accounted for 16% of the total variability in a*. The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 21% of the variability in b*. The mean ΔE (SD) between predicted and observed CIELAB values for the central incisor was 5.8 (3.2). Conclusions Age and gender were found to be statistically significant determinants in predicting the natural color of central incisors. Although the precision of these predictions was less than the median color difference found for all pairs of teeth studied, and may be considered an acceptable precision, further

  16. A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

    PubMed Central

    Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

    2013-01-01

    Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

  17. [Problems associated with age estimation of underage persons who appear in child pornography materials].

    PubMed

    Łabecka, Marzena; Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska, Dorota; Jarzabek-Bielecka, Grazyna

    2011-01-01

    Among opinions issued by the Forensic Medicine Department, Medical Science University in Poznan, in the last six years, there are opinions concerning age estimation in child pornography materials. The issue subject to research is indicating persons under the age of 15 years in pornographic materials, since possession of pornographic materials featuring underage persons is considered a crime and is subject to article 202 of the Penal Code. The estimation of the age of teenagers based on secondary and tertiary sexual characteristics is increasingly more difficult and the available data in professional literature regarding the standard time of development differ among various authors of such studies. In the report, an attempt has been made at determining the agreement regarding different characteristics in the data included in the Tanner's scale, which has been modified to accommodate the research done on persons registered by electronic means. The modified scale, which up to now has been used in research of registered subjects in classified public prosecutors' materials, has been employed in children seen in a pediatric outpatient department. The goal has been a comparison of the outcome of the research to prove its usefulness so that in the future, the modified scale could be used as a research tool in estimation of age of persons appearing in pornography materials. medical forms of 205 children seen in a pediatric outpatient department, based on the scale created by the present authors us and later processed using Excel.

  18. Age estimation based on pulp/tooth volume ratio measured on cone-beam CT images.

    PubMed

    Gulsahi, Ayse; Kulah, Cemal Kivanc; Bakirarar, Batuhan; Gulen, Orhan; Kamburoglu, Kivanc

    2018-01-01

    After tooth eruption, the size of the pulp cavity decreases with age owing to deposition of secondary dentine. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between the chronological age and the ratio of pulp volume (PV) to tooth volume (TV) measurements using CBCT images of single rooted teeth. Maxillary anterior, canine and mandibular canine/premolar CBCT scans of patients older than 15 years of age were collected from the archives between 2013 and 2015 years. Patients with CBCT scans of teeth were seen in detail and patients with known chronological age were included. Teeth with caries, filling or crown restorations, periapical pathologies or pulps that could not be identified were excluded. Consequently, 204 patients with 655 teeth were evaluated. The PV and the TV of each tooth was measured and then the PV/TV ratio was calculated. Simple linear regression analysis was performed in order to predict age estimation by using PV/TV. The PV/TV of all teeth ranged between 0.01 and 0.08. A negative correlation was found between the PV/TV ratio and age (p < 0.05). The regression analysis showed the highest Pearson correlation (0.532) for the maxillary central incisor tooth. Considering measurements of the PV/TV of all assessed teeth, there was no significant difference in the intercept between both gender (p > 0.05). This study revealed that PV/TV ratio was not gender dependent and the strongest correlation was found between the age and PV/TV ratio measured on maxillary central incisors than other teeth.

  19. Cost-Sensitive Local Binary Feature Learning for Facial Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jiwen; Liong, Venice Erin; Zhou, Jie

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary feature learning (CS-LBFL) method for facial age estimation. Unlike the conventional facial age estimation methods that employ hand-crafted descriptors or holistically learned descriptors for feature representation, our CS-LBFL method learns discriminative local features directly from raw pixels for face representation. Motivated by the fact that facial age estimation is a cost-sensitive computer vision problem and local binary features are more robust to illumination and expression variations than holistic features, we learn a series of hashing functions to project raw pixel values extracted from face patches into low-dimensional binary codes, where binary codes with similar chronological ages are projected as close as possible, and those with dissimilar chronological ages are projected as far as possible. Then, we pool and encode these local binary codes within each face image as a real-valued histogram feature for face representation. Moreover, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary multi-feature learning method to jointly learn multiple sets of hashing functions using face patches extracted from different scales to exploit complementary information. Our methods achieve competitive performance on four widely used face aging data sets.

  20. Estimating age-specific reproductive numbers-A comparison of methods.

    PubMed

    Moser, Carlee B; White, Laura F

    2016-01-01

    Large outbreaks, such as those caused by influenza, put a strain on resources necessary for their control. In particular, children have been shown to play a key role in influenza transmission during recent outbreaks, and targeted interventions, such as school closures, could positively impact the course of emerging epidemics. As an outbreak is unfolding, it is important to be able to estimate reproductive numbers that incorporate this heterogeneity and to use surveillance data that is routinely collected to more effectively target interventions and obtain an accurate understanding of transmission dynamics. There are a growing number of methods that estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers with limited data that build on methods assuming a homogenously mixing population. In this article, we introduce a new approach that is flexible and improves on many aspects of existing methods. We apply this method to influenza data from two outbreaks, the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in South Africa and Japan, to estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers and compare it to three other methods that also use existing data from social mixing surveys to quantify contact rates among different age groups. In this exercise, all estimates of the reproductive numbers for children exceeded the critical threshold of one and in most cases exceeded those of adults. We introduce a flexible new method to estimate reproductive numbers that describe heterogeneity in the population.

  1. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  2. Third molar mineralization in relation to chronologic age estimation of the Han in central southern China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Ying; Geng, Kun; Chu, Yanhao; Xu, Mindi; Zha, Lagabaiyila

    2018-03-03

    The purpose of this study is to provide a forensic reference data about estimating chronologic age by evaluating the third molar mineralization of Han in central southern China. The mineralization degree of third molars was assessed by Demirjian's classification with modification for 2519 digital orthopantomograms (1190 males, 1329 females; age 8-23 years). The mean ages of the initial mineralization and the crown completion of third molars were around 9.66 and 13.88 years old in males and 9.52 and 14.09 years old in females. The minimum ages of apical closure were around 16 years in both sexes. Twenty-eight at stage C and stage G and 38 and 48 at stage F occurred earlier in males than in females. There was no significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth in males and females except that stage C in males. Two formulas were devised to estimate age based on mineralization stages and sexes. In Hunan Province, the person will probably be over age 14, when a third molar reaches the stage G. The results of the study could provide reference for age estimation in forensic cases and clinical dentistry.

  3. AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominant/co-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

  4. AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominantlco-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

  5. Egg flotation estimates nest age for Pacific and Red-throated Loons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rizzolo, Daniel; Schmutz, Joel A.

    2007-01-01

    We used Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica) and Red-throated Loon (G. stellata) nests with known ages to gauge the efficacy of egg flotation for determining nest age in coastal Alaska. Egg flotation accurately estimated nest age for both species; the mean ± 1SD difference between known age and age determined with egg flotation was - 0.05 ± 2.00 d and -0.02 ± 1.63 d for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, respectively. Day of nest initiation did not influence the relationship between known nest age and nest age estimated with egg flotation, indicating incubation period was not shortened in nests initiated later in the season. Additionally, we found no difference in the ability of egg flotation to estimate nest age between two widely dispersed study sites for Pacific Loons, and only a small difference between two of three widely dispersed study sites for Red-throated Loons. Thus, our described relationships between egg flotation categories and nest age should be broadly applicable for these holarctic species. We conclude that for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, egg flotation is a useful technique for determining nest age in the field to better monitor nest fate, and to quantify nest age effects on nest daily survival rate.

  6. Age Estimation of Infants Through Metric Analysis of Developing Anterior Deciduous Teeth.

    PubMed

    Viciano, Joan; De Luca, Stefano; Irurita, Javier; Alemán, Inmaculada

    2018-01-01

    This study provides regression equations for estimation of age of infants from the dimensions of their developing deciduous teeth. The sample comprises 97 individuals of known sex and age (62 boys, 35 girls), aged between 2 days and 1,081 days. The age-estimation equations were obtained for the sexes combined, as well as for each sex separately, thus including "sex" as an independent variable. The values of the correlations and determination coefficients obtained for each regression equation indicate good fits for most of the equations obtained. The "sex" factor was statistically significant when included as an independent variable in seven of the regression equations. However, the "sex" factor provided an advantage for age estimation in only three of the equations, compared to those that did not include "sex" as a factor. These data suggest that the ages of infants can be accurately estimated from measurements of their developing deciduous teeth. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  7. Effects of a growth check on daily age estimates of age-0 alligator gar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Snow, Richard A.; Long, James M.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate age and growth information is essential for a complete knowledge of life history, growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and average life span in fishes. Alligator gar are becoming increasingly managed throughout their range and because this species spawns in backwater flooded areas, their offspring are prone to stranding in areas with limited prey, potentially affecting their growth. Because fish growth is tightly linked with otolith growth and annulus formation, the ability to discern marks not indicative of annuli (age checks) in alligator gar would give managers some insight when estimating ages. Previous studies have suggested that checks are often present prior to the first annulus in otoliths of alligator gar, affecting age estimates. We investigated check formation in otoliths of alligator gar in relation to growth and food availability. Sixteen age-0 alligator gar were marked with oxytetracycline (OTC) to give a reference point and divided equitably into two groups: a control group with abundant prey and an experimental group with limited prey. The experimental group was given 2 g of food per week for 20 days and then given the same prey availability as the control group for the next 20 days. After 40 days, the gar were measured, sacrificed, and their sagittae removed to determine if checks were present. Checks were visible on 14 of the 16 otoliths in the experimental group, associated with low growth during the first 20 days when prey was limited and accelerated growth after prey availability was increased. No checks were observed on otoliths of the control group, where growth and prey availability were consistent. Age estimates of fish in the control group were more accurate than those in the experimental group, showing that fish growth as a function of prey availability likely induced the checks by compressing daily ring formation.

  8. Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis.

    PubMed

    Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Sixty subjects aged 20-85 years were included in the study. For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections-cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root-were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation ( r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level.

  9. Age estimation from dental cementum incremental lines and periodontal disease.

    PubMed

    Dias, P E M; Beaini, T L; Melani, R F H

    2010-12-01

    Age estimation by counting incremental lines in cementum added to the average age of tooth eruption is considered an accurate method by some authors, while others reject it stating weak correlation between estimated and actual age. The aim of this study was to evaluate this technique and check the influence of periodontal disease on age estimates by analyzing both the number of cementum lines and the correlation between cementum thickness and actual age on freshly extracted teeth. Thirty one undecalcified ground cross sections of approximately 30 µm, from 25 teeth were prepared, observed, photographed and measured. Images were enhanced by software and counts were made by one observer, and the results compared with two control-observers. There was moderate correlation ((r)=0.58) for the entire sample, with mean error of 9.7 years. For teeth with periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.03 with a mean error of 22.6 years. For teeth without periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.74 with mean error of 1.6 years. There was correlation of 0.69 between cementum thickness and known age for the entire sample, 0.25 for teeth with periodontal problems and 0.75 for teeth without periodontal pathologies. The technique was reliable for periodontally sound teeth, but not for periodontally diseased teeth.

  10. Estimation of the stand ages of tropical secondary forests after shifting cultivation based on the combination of WorldView-2 and time-series Landsat images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujiki, Shogoro; Okada, Kei-ichi; Nishio, Shogo; Kitayama, Kanehiro

    2016-09-01

    We developed a new method to estimate stand ages of secondary vegetation in the Bornean montane zone, where local people conduct traditional shifting cultivation and protected areas are surrounded by patches of recovering secondary vegetation of various ages. Identifying stand ages at the landscape level is critical to improve conservation policies. We combined a high-resolution satellite image (WorldView-2) with time-series Landsat images. We extracted stand ages (the time elapsed since the most recent slash and burn) from a change-detection analysis with Landsat time-series images and superimposed the derived stand ages on the segments classified by object-based image analysis using WorldView-2. We regarded stand ages as a response variable, and object-based metrics as independent variables, to develop regression models that explain stand ages. Subsequently, we classified the vegetation of the target area into six age units and one rubber plantation unit (1-3 yr, 3-5 yr, 5-7 yr, 7-30 yr, 30-50 yr, >50 yr and 'rubber plantation') using regression models and linear discriminant analyses. Validation demonstrated an accuracy of 84.3%. Our approach is particularly effective in classifying highly dynamic pioneer vegetation younger than 7 years into 2-yr intervals, suggesting that rapid changes in vegetation canopies can be detected with high accuracy. The combination of a spectral time-series analysis and object-based metrics based on high-resolution imagery enabled the classification of dynamic vegetation under intensive shifting cultivation and yielded an informative land cover map based on stand ages.

  11. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

    PubMed

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

  12. Accuracy of MRI skeletal age estimation for subjects 12-19. Potential use for subjects of unknown age.

    PubMed

    Serinelli, Serenella; Panebianco, Valeria; Martino, Milvia; Battisti, Sofia; Rodacki, Karina; Marinelli, Enrico; Zaccagna, Fulvio; Semelka, Richard C; Tomei, Ernesto

    2015-05-01

    In forensic practice, there is a growing need for accurate methods of age estimation, especially in the cases of young individuals of unknown age. Age can be estimated through somatic features that are universally considered associated with chronological age. Unfortunately, these features do not always coincide with the real chronological age: for these reasons that age determination is often very difficult. Our aim is to evaluate accuracy of skeletal age estimation using Tomei's MRI method in subjects between 12 and 19 years old for forensic purposes. Two investigators analyzed MRI images of the left hand and wrist of 77 male and 74 female caucasian subjects, without chronic diseases or developmental disorders, whose age ranged from 12 to 19 years. Skeletal maturation was determined by two operators, who analyzed all MRI images separately, in blinded fashion to the chronological age. Inter-rater agreement was measured with Pearson (R (2)) coefficient. One of the examiners repeated the evaluation after 6 months, and intraobserver variation was analyzed. Bland-Altman plots were used to determine mean differences between skeletal and chronological age. Inter-rater agreement Pearson coefficient showed a good linear correlation, respectively, 0.98 and 0.97 in males and females. Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that the differences between chronological and skeletal age are not significant. Spearman's correlation coefficient showed good correlation between skeletal and chronological age both in females (R (2) = 0.96) and in males (R (2) = 0.94). Our results show that MRI skeletal age is a reproducible method and has good correlation with chronological age.

  13. Age Determination by Back Length for African Savanna Elephants: Extending Age Assessment Techniques for Aerial-Based Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.; Ferreira, Sam M.; Nørgaard, Camilla F.; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C.; Moss, Cynthia J.

    2011-01-01

    Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables. PMID:22028925

  14. Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  15. Estimating a child's age from an image using whole body proportions.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Teghan; Henneberg, Maciej

    2017-09-01

    The use and distribution of child pornography is an increasing problem. Forensic anthropologists are often asked to estimate a child's age from a photograph. Previous studies have attempted to estimate the age of children from photographs using ratios of the face. Here, we propose to include body measurement ratios into age estimates. A total of 1603 boys and 1833 girls aged 5-16 years were measured over a 10-year period. They are 'Cape Coloured' children from South Africa. Their age was regressed on ratios derived from anthropometric measurements of the head as well as the body. Multiple regression equations including four ratios for each sex (head height to shoulder and hip width, knee width, leg length and trunk length) have a standard error of 1.6-1.7 years. The error is of the same order as variation of differences between biological and chronological ages of the children. Thus, the error cannot be minimised any further as it is a direct reflection of a naturally occurring phenomenon.

  16. An overview of age estimation in forensic anthropology: perspectives and practical considerations.

    PubMed

    Márquez-Grant, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Information on methods of age estimation in physical anthropology, in particular with regard to age-at-death from human skeletal remains, is widely available in the literature. However, the practicalities and real challenges faced in forensic casework are not always highlighted. To provide a practitioner's perspective, regarding age estimation in forensic anthropology (both in the living as well as the dead), with an emphasis on the types of cases, the value of such work and its challenges and limitations. The paper reviews the current literature on age estimation with a focus on forensic anthropology, but it also brings the author's personal perspective derived from a number of forensic cases. Although much is known about what methods to use, but not always how to apply them, little attention has been given in the literature to the real practicalities faced by forensic anthropologists, for example: the challenges in different types of scenarios; how to report age estimations; responsibilities; and ethical concerns. This paper gathers some of these aspects into one overview which includes the value of such work and the practical challenges, not necessarily with the methods themselves, but also with regard to how these are applied in the different cases where age estimation is required.

  17. Estimating the age of oil palm trees using remote sensing technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitrianto, A. C.; Darmawan, A.; Tokimatsu, K.; Sufwandika, M.

    2018-04-01

    One of renewable energy that can be converted into electricity is biomass. Biomass energy or bio energy is the largest source of domestic renewable energy in Indonesia. Since palm oil development is rapidly increasing, Empty Fruit Bunch (EFB) and Mesocarp Fiber (MF) are becoming the highest contributor of oil palm waste. Understanding biomass waste potential is very important for further utilization. Remote sensing technique can be used to detect oil palm trees age based on the canopy density and to estimate the amount of EFB in further analysis. In this research, the percentage of canopy density of oil palm trees/stands depends on their ages and the age is divided into four classes; seeds (<3 years old; <10%), young (3-8 years old; 10-40 %), teenage (9-14 years old; 41-80 %), and mature (15-25 years old; >80 %).

  18. Estimating ages of Utah chubs by use of pectoral fin rays, otoliths, and scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffin, Kayla M; Beard, Zachary S.; Flinders, John M.; Quist, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Utah chub Gila atraria is native to the Upper Snake River system in Wyoming and Idaho and to the Lake Bonneville Basin in Utah and southeastern Idaho. However, the Utah chub has been introduced into many other waterbodies in the western United States, where it competes with ecologically and economically important species. The objectives of this study were to evaluate between-reader precision and reader confidence in age estimates obtained from pectoral fin rays, lapilli (otoliths), asterisci (otoliths), and scales for Utah chubs collected from Henrys Lake, Idaho. Lapilli have been previously shown to provide accurate age estimates for Utah chubs; therefore, we sought to compare age estimates from fin rays, asterisci, and scales to those from lapilli. The between-reader coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and the percent of exact reader agreement (PA-0) was highest for pectoral fin rays (CV = 4.7, PA-0 = 74%), followed by scales (CV = 10.3, PA-0 = 52.3%), lapilli (CV = 11.6, PA-0 = 48.2%), and asterisci (CV = 13.0, PA-0 = 41.7%). Consensus age estimates from pectoral fin rays showed high concordance with consensus age estimates from lapilli. Our results indicate that pectoral fin rays provide the most precise age estimates for Utah chub. Pectoral fin rays are easily collected and processed and also provide age estimates without requiring fish sacrifice.

  19. Age- and Tumor Subtype–Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers

    PubMed Central

    Hogervorst, Frans; van Hien, Richard; Cornelissen, Sten; Broeks, Annegien; Adank, Muriel A.; Meijers, Hanne; Waisfisz, Quinten; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Schutte, Mieke; van den Ouweland, Ans; Hooning, Maartje; Andrulis, Irene L.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Arndt, Volker; Bermisheva, Marina; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brenner, Hermann; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Couch, Fergus J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Czene, Kamila; Dunning, Alison M.; Fasching, Peter A.; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Galle, Eva; García-Closas, Montserrat; Giles, Graham G.; Haeberle, Lothar; Hall, Per; Hillemanns, Peter; Hopper, John L.; Jakubowska, Anna; John, Esther M.; Jones, Michael; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Knight, Julia A.; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela; Lee, Andrew; Lindblom, Annika; Lubinski, Jan; Mannermaa, Arto; Margolin, Sara; Meindl, Alfons; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Newcomb, Polly A.; Offit, Kenneth; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Peto, Julian; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Robson, Mark; Rudolph, Anja; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Soens, Julie; Southey, Melissa C.; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tollenaar, Rob A.E.M.; Tomlinson, Ian; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Vachon, Celine; Wang, Qin; Whittemore, Alice S.; Ziogas, Argyrios; van der Kolk, Lizet; Nevanlinna, Heli; Dörk, Thilo; Bojesen, Stig; Easton, Douglas F.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. Patients and Methods CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay. Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies. Results Proportions of heterozygous CHEK2*1100delC carriers in controls, in patients with breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies, and in patients with breast cancer from familial- and clinical genetics center–based studies were 0.5%, 1.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The estimated OR for invasive breast cancer was 2.26 (95%CI, 1.90 to 2.69; P = 2.3 × 10−20). The OR was higher for estrogen receptor (ER)–positive disease (2.55 [95%CI, 2.10 to 3.10; P = 4.9 × 10−21]) than it was for ER-negative disease (1.32 [95%CI, 0.93 to 1.88; P = .12]; P interaction = 9.9 × 10−4). The OR significantly declined with attained age for breast cancer overall (P = .001) and for ER-positive tumors (P = .001). Estimated cumulative risks for development of ER-positive and ER-negative tumors by age 80 in CHEK2*1100delC carriers were 20% and 3%, respectively, compared with 9% and 2%, respectively, in the general population of the United Kingdom. Conclusion These CHEK2*1100delC breast cancer risk estimates provide a basis for incorporating CHEK2*1100delC into breast cancer risk prediction models and into

  20. Age- and Tumor Subtype-Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Marjanka K; Hogervorst, Frans; van Hien, Richard; Cornelissen, Sten; Broeks, Annegien; Adank, Muriel A; Meijers, Hanne; Waisfisz, Quinten; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Schutte, Mieke; van den Ouweland, Ans; Hooning, Maartje; Andrulis, Irene L; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Antoniou, Antonis C; Arndt, Volker; Bermisheva, Marina; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Bolla, Manjeet K; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brenner, Hermann; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Couch, Fergus J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Czene, Kamila; Dunning, Alison M; Fasching, Peter A; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Galle, Eva; García-Closas, Montserrat; Giles, Graham G; Haeberle, Lothar; Hall, Per; Hillemanns, Peter; Hopper, John L; Jakubowska, Anna; John, Esther M; Jones, Michael; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Knight, Julia A; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela; Lee, Andrew; Lindblom, Annika; Lubinski, Jan; Mannermaa, Arto; Margolin, Sara; Meindl, Alfons; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Newcomb, Polly A; Offit, Kenneth; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Peto, Julian; Pharoah, Paul D P; Robson, Mark; Rudolph, Anja; Sawyer, Elinor J; Schmutzler, Rita K; Seynaeve, Caroline; Soens, Julie; Southey, Melissa C; Spurdle, Amanda B; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Tomlinson, Ian; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Vachon, Celine; Wang, Qin; Whittemore, Alice S; Ziogas, Argyrios; van der Kolk, Lizet; Nevanlinna, Heli; Dörk, Thilo; Bojesen, Stig; Easton, Douglas F

    2016-08-10

    CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay. Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies. Proportions of heterozygous CHEK2*1100delC carriers in controls, in patients with breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies, and in patients with breast cancer from familial- and clinical genetics center-based studies were 0.5%, 1.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The estimated OR for invasive breast cancer was 2.26 (95%CI, 1.90 to 2.69; P = 2.3 × 10(-20)). The OR was higher for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (2.55 [95%CI, 2.10 to 3.10; P = 4.9 × 10(-21)]) than it was for ER-negative disease (1.32 [95%CI, 0.93 to 1.88; P = .12]; P interaction = 9.9 × 10(-4)). The OR significantly declined with attained age for breast cancer overall (P = .001) and for ER-positive tumors (P = .001). Estimated cumulative risks for development of ER-positive and ER-negative tumors by age 80 in CHEK2*1100delC carriers were 20% and 3%, respectively, compared with 9% and 2%, respectively, in the general population of the United Kingdom. These CHEK2*1100delC breast cancer risk estimates provide a basis for incorporating CHEK2*1100delC into breast cancer risk prediction models and into guidelines for intensified screening and follow-up. © 2016

  1. Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis

    PubMed Central

    Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B.; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. Aims: The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Settings and Design: Sixty subjects aged 20–85 years were included in the study. Materials and Methods: For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections—cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root—were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. Statistical Analysis Used: All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Results and Conclusions: Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation (r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level. PMID:28123269

  2. An empirical comparative study on biological age estimation algorithms with an application of Work Ability Index (WAI).

    PubMed

    Cho, Il Haeng; Park, Kyung S; Lim, Chang Joo

    2010-02-01

    In this study, we described the characteristics of five different biological age (BA) estimation algorithms, including (i) multiple linear regression, (ii) principal component analysis, and somewhat unique methods developed by (iii) Hochschild, (iv) Klemera and Doubal, and (v) a variant of Klemera and Doubal's method. The objective of this study is to find the most appropriate method of BA estimation by examining the association between Work Ability Index (WAI) and the differences of each algorithm's estimates from chronological age (CA). The WAI was found to be a measure that reflects an individual's current health status rather than the deterioration caused by a serious dependency with the age. Experiments were conducted on 200 Korean male participants using a BA estimation system developed principally under the concept of non-invasive, simple to operate and human function-based. Using the empirical data, BA estimation as well as various analyses including correlation analysis and discriminant function analysis was performed. As a result, it had been confirmed by the empirical data that Klemera and Doubal's method with uncorrelated variables from principal component analysis produces relatively reliable and acceptable BA estimates. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Aim: Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Materials and Methods: Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. Results: There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Conclusion: Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis. PMID:26005298

  4. Accounting for estimated IQ in neuropsychological test performance with regression-based techniques.

    PubMed

    Testa, S Marc; Winicki, Jessica M; Pearlson, Godfrey D; Gordon, Barry; Schretlen, David J

    2009-11-01

    Regression-based normative techniques account for variability in test performance associated with multiple predictor variables and generate expected scores based on algebraic equations. Using this approach, we show that estimated IQ, based on oral word reading, accounts for 1-9% of the variability beyond that explained by individual differences in age, sex, race, and years of education for most cognitive measures. These results confirm that adding estimated "premorbid" IQ to demographic predictors in multiple regression models can incrementally improve the accuracy with which regression-based norms (RBNs) benchmark expected neuropsychological test performance in healthy adults. It remains to be seen whether the incremental variance in test performance explained by estimated "premorbid" IQ translates to improved diagnostic accuracy in patient samples. We describe these methods, and illustrate the step-by-step application of RBNs with two cases. We also discuss the rationale, assumptions, and caveats of this approach. More broadly, we note that adjusting test scores for age and other characteristics might actually decrease the accuracy with which test performance predicts absolute criteria, such as the ability to drive or live independently.

  5. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  6. Revised age estimates of the Euphrosyne family

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carruba, Valerio; Masiero, Joseph R.; Cibulková, Helena; Aljbaae, Safwan; Espinoza Huaman, Mariela

    2015-08-01

    The Euphrosyne family, a high inclination asteroid family in the outer main belt, is considered one of the most peculiar groups of asteroids. It is characterized by the steepest size frequency distribution (SFD) among families in the main belt, and it is the only family crossed near its center by the ν6 secular resonance. Previous studies have shown that the steep size frequency distribution may be the result of the dynamical evolution of the family.In this work we further explore the unique dynamical configuration of the Euphrosyne family by refining the previous age values, considering the effects of changes in shapes of the asteroids during YORP cycle (``stochastic YORP''), the long-term effect of close encounters of family members with (31) Euphrosyne itself, and the effect that changing key parameters of the Yarkovsky force (such as density and thermal conductivity) has on the estimate of the family age obtained using Monte Carlo methods. Numerical simulations accounting for the interaction with the local web of secular and mean-motion resonances allow us to refine previous estimates of the family age. The cratering event that formed the Euphrosyne family most likely occurred between 560 and 1160 Myr ago, and no earlier than 1400 Myr ago when we allow for larger uncertainties in the key parameters of the Yarkovsky force.

  7. Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus).

    PubMed

    Mbizah, Moreangels M; Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J

    2016-01-01

    African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6-24 months; 25-60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden's Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a moderately

  8. Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus)

    PubMed Central

    Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J.

    2016-01-01

    African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6–24 months; 25–60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a

  9. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-01-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

  10. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    PubMed

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between the average age and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimation of median growth curves for children up two years old based on biresponse local linear estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamidah, Nur; Rifada, Marisa

    2016-03-01

    There is significant of the coeficient correlation between weight and height of the children. Therefore, the simultaneous model estimation is better than partial single response approach. In this study we investigate the pattern of sex difference in growth curve of children from birth up to two years of age in Surabaya, Indonesia based on biresponse model. The data was collected in a longitudinal representative sample of the Surabaya population of healthy children that consists of two response variables i.e. weight (kg) and height (cm). While a predictor variable is age (month). Based on generalized cross validation criterion, the modeling result based on biresponse model by using local linear estimator for boy and girl growth curve gives optimal bandwidth i.e 1.41 and 1.56 and the determination coefficient (R2) i.e. 99.99% and 99.98%,.respectively. Both boy and girl curves satisfy the goodness of fit criterion i.e..the determination coefficient tends to one. Also, there is difference pattern of growth curve between boy and girl. The boy median growth curves is higher than those of girl curve.

  12. Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu

    2005-10-01

    We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.

  13. Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of methylmercury to estimate exposures in US women of childbearing age.

    PubMed

    Allen, Bruce C; Hack, C Eric; Clewell, Harvey J

    2007-08-01

    A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16-49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 microg/kg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 microg/kg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability

  14. Canine pulp ratios in estimating pensionable age in subjects with questionable documents of identification.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi

    2011-03-20

    One of the most interesting reasons for needing to estimate age in adult subjects is to ascertain the age of a person of questionable pensionable age. This problem is becoming increasingly important in Europe, owing to the high number of immigrants without valid birth certificates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the application of the apposition of secondary dentine of canines by the method of Cameriere et al. [10], in order to estimate the pensionable age of subjects without proper birth certificates. Periapical X-rays of 180 canines from 90 subjects aged between 50 and 79, 46 men and 44 women, were analysed. Estimated ages were used to test the medico-legal question as to whether an individual was older or younger than 65 years of age. In subjects under 65, age was correctly evaluated in 91% and 89% of individuals using maxillary and mandibular canines, respectively. In subjects over 65, of pensionable age, estimates were correct in 85% and 88% of cases, respectively. The proportion of individuals with correct classifications was 89% for both maxillary and mandibular canines taken together. In only four subjects, the results of maxillary and mandibular canines were discordant; in the other 86 subjects, the test of maxillary and mandibular canines yielded concordant results. Among the latter, the proportion of individuals who were really aged 65 years or older, and who were correctly estimated as such, was 94%, and the proportion of individuals younger than 65 years of age who were correctly estimated as such was 96%. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. New thermoluminescence age estimates for the Nyos maar eruption (Cameroon Volcanic Line)

    PubMed Central

    Tchouankoue, Jean Pierre; Nkouamen Nemzoue, Peguy Noel; Ayaba, Félicité; Nformidah-Ndah, Siggy Signe; Nformi Chifu, Emmanuel

    2017-01-01

    Nyos maar is located in the Cameroon Volcanic Line and generates a multitude of primary and secondary hazards to the local population. For risk assessment and hazard mitigation, the age of the Nyos maar eruption provides some vital information. Since previous dating efforts using a range of techniques resulted in vastly varying eruption ages, we applied thermoluminescence (TL) methods to obtain independent and direct chronological constraints for the time of maar formation. Target minerals were granitic quartz clasts contained in pyroclastic surge deposits. Thermoluminescence plateau results prove that heat and/or pressure during the phreatomagmatic eruption was sufficient to reset the inherited luminescence signal of granitic bedrock quartz. Parallel application of three TL measurement protocols to one of the two samples gave consistent equivalent doses for the quartz ultra-violet emission. Despite the robustness of our dose estimates, the assessment of the dose rate was accompanied by methodological challenges, such as estimation of the original size distribution of quartz grains in the pyroclastic deposits. Considering results from additional laboratory analyses to constrain these uncertainties, we calculate an average maximum TL age of 12.3 ± 1.5 ka for the Nyos maar eruption. Based on these new data, a more solid risk assessment can be envisaged. PMID:28558057

  16. New thermoluminescence age estimates for the Nyos maar eruption (Cameroon Volcanic Line).

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Christoph; Tchouankoue, Jean Pierre; Nkouamen Nemzoue, Peguy Noel; Ayaba, Félicité; Nformidah-Ndah, Siggy Signe; Nformi Chifu, Emmanuel

    2017-01-01

    Nyos maar is located in the Cameroon Volcanic Line and generates a multitude of primary and secondary hazards to the local population. For risk assessment and hazard mitigation, the age of the Nyos maar eruption provides some vital information. Since previous dating efforts using a range of techniques resulted in vastly varying eruption ages, we applied thermoluminescence (TL) methods to obtain independent and direct chronological constraints for the time of maar formation. Target minerals were granitic quartz clasts contained in pyroclastic surge deposits. Thermoluminescence plateau results prove that heat and/or pressure during the phreatomagmatic eruption was sufficient to reset the inherited luminescence signal of granitic bedrock quartz. Parallel application of three TL measurement protocols to one of the two samples gave consistent equivalent doses for the quartz ultra-violet emission. Despite the robustness of our dose estimates, the assessment of the dose rate was accompanied by methodological challenges, such as estimation of the original size distribution of quartz grains in the pyroclastic deposits. Considering results from additional laboratory analyses to constrain these uncertainties, we calculate an average maximum TL age of 12.3 ± 1.5 ka for the Nyos maar eruption. Based on these new data, a more solid risk assessment can be envisaged.

  17. Some analytical models to estimate maternal age at birth using age-specific fertility rates.

    PubMed

    Pandey, A; Suchindran, C M

    1995-01-01

    "A class of analytical models to study the distribution of maternal age at different births from the data on age-specific fertility rates has been presented. Deriving the distributions and means of maternal age at birth of any specific order, final parity and at next-to-last birth, we have extended the approach to estimate parity progression ratios and the ultimate parity distribution of women in the population.... We illustrate computations of various components of the model expressions with the current fertility experiences of the United States for 1970." excerpt

  18. Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

    PubMed

    López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

    2015-03-01

    Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

  19. Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

  20. Estimation of gestational age in early pregnancy from crown-rump length when gestational age range is truncated: the case study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Fetal ultrasound scanning is considered vital for routine antenatal care with first trimester scans recommended for accurate estimation of gestational age (GA). A reliable estimate of gestational age is key information underpinning clinical care and allows estimation of expected date of delivery. Fetal crown-rump length (CRL) is recommended over last menstrual period for estimating GA when measured in early pregnancy i.e. 9+0-13+6 weeks. Methods The INTERGROWTH-21st Project is the largest prospective study to collect data on CRL in geographically diverse populations and with a high level of quality control measures in place. We aim to develop a new gestational age estimation equation based on the crown-rump length (CRL) from women recruited between 9+0-13+6 weeks. The main statistical challenge is modelling data when the outcome variable (GA) is truncated at both ends, i.e. at 9 and 14 weeks. We explored three alternative statistical approaches to overcome the truncation of GA. To evaluate these strategies we generated a data set with no truncation of GA that was similar to the INTERGROWTH-21st Project CRL data, which we used to explore the performance of different methods of analysis of these data when we imposed truncation at 9 and 14 weeks of gestation. These 3 methods were first tested in a simulation based study using a previously published dating equation by Verburg et al. and evaluated how well each of them performed in relation to the model from which the data were generated. After evaluating the 3 approaches using simulated data based on the Verburg equations, the best approach will be applied to the INTERGROWTH-21st Project data to estimate GA from CRL. Results Results of these rather “ad hoc” statistical methods correspond very closely to the “real data” for Verburg, a data set that is similar to the INTERGROWTH-21st project CRL data set. Conclusions We are confident that we can use these approaches to get reliable estimates based

  1. DNA-based approach to aging martens (Martes americana and M. caurina)

    Treesearch

    Jonathan N. Pauli; John P. Whiteman; Bruce G. Marcot; Terry M. McClean; Merav Ben-David

    2011-01-01

    Demographic structure is central to understanding the dynamics of animal populations. However, determining the age of free-ranging mammals is difficult, and currently impossible when sampling with noninvasive, genetic-based approaches. We present a method to estimate age class by combining measures of telomere lengths with other biologically meaningful covariates in a...

  2. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-06-28

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages.

  3. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691

  4. Age estimation using level of eyebrow and eyelash whitening

    PubMed Central

    Kantarcı, Feride Aylin; Kantarcı, Muhammed Nabi; Bilgi, Sefer

    2014-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to determine whether eyebrow and eyelash whitening is an effective parameter in age estimation. Material/Methods We evaluated 1545 patients. Age groups were 1–10, 11–20, 21–30, 31–40, 41–50, 51–60, 61–70, 71–80, and 81–90 years. Level of whitening was categorized as level 0: no whitening, level 1: 1–3 strands, level 2: 3–10 strands, level 3: 10 strands–2/3 whitening, level 4: >3/4 whitening. Results Mean age was 42.39±20.01. While there was no eyebrow whitening in 87% of the subjects, level 4 whitening of eyebrows was observed in 0,8% of the subjects. There was no eyelash whitening in 97,7% of the subjects and no level 4 eyelash whitening was detected in any subject. Men had significantly more level 1, 2, 3, and 4 eyebrow whitening compared with women. There was no gender difference in terms of eyelash whitening level. There was no eyebrow and eyelash whitening in subjects age 1–40 years; whitening began in the 41–50 years age group and increased with age in other groups. Mean age was 39.59±19.63 years in subjects with no eyebrow whitening; 59 years in level 1, 61 years in level 2, 63 years in level 3, and 69 years in level 4 eyebrow whitening. Mean age was 41.85±19.87 in subjects with no eyelash whitening; and 63.57±10.75 in those with whitening. Conclusions Particularly after 41–50 years of age, level of eyebrow and eyelash whitening may be among a useful age estimation parameter. PMID:24448310

  5. So You Think You Look Young? Matching Older Adults' Subjective Ages with Age Estimations Provided by Younger, Middle-Aged, and Older Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kotter-Gruhn, Dana; Hess, Thomas M.

    2012-01-01

    Perceived age plays an important role in the context of age identity and social interactions. To examine how accurate individuals are in estimating how old they look and how old others are, younger, middle-aged, and older adults rated photographs of older target persons (for whom we had information about objective and subjective age) in terms of…

  6. Comparison of parental estimate of developmental age with measured IQ in children with neurodevelopmental disorders.

    PubMed

    Chandler, S; Howlin, P; Simonoff, E; Kennedy, J; Baird, G

    2016-07-01

    Formal IQ tests are an important part of the diagnostic and needs-based assessment process for children with neurodevelopmental disorders. However, resources for such assessments are not always available. It has been suggested that parental estimates of their child's developmental age could serve as a proxy IQ when formal measures are unavailable. Parental estimates of their child's developmental age were converted to a developmental quotient (DQ) in 197 children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) aged 4-9 years, and 108 children with ADHD and intellectual disability (ADHD + ID) aged 7-15 years. Formal IQ assessments were then conducted. Parents completed the Social Communication Questionnaire ((SCQ), a measure of autism symptomatology) and a demographic questionnaire. In the ASD sample, 58% of parent estimates were within 15 points (i.e. one standard deviation) of the child's measured IQ score. Lower measured IQ and lower SCQ total score predicted higher parental accuracy. In the ADHD + ID sample, 74% of parental estimates were within 15 points of measured IQ. In this group, higher child IQ predicted greater parental accuracy. Parents in the ADHD + ID group were more likely to overestimate children's ability level than parents in the ASD group. In this study, the majority of parents of children with ADHD and ID were able to estimate their child's intellectual ability level with some accuracy. Parents of children with ASD were less accurate, but this may be because these parents were focussing more on children's level of adaptive functioning, which is known to be typically lower than cognitive ability in ASD. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. A radiographic study estimating age of mandibular third molars by periodontal ligament visibility.

    PubMed

    Chaudhary, M A; Liversidge, H M

    2017-12-01

    Visibility of the periodontal ligament of mandibular third molars (M3) has been suggested as a method to estimate age. To assess the accuracy of this method and compare the visibility of the periodontal ligament in the left M3 with the right M3. The sample was archived panoramic dental radiographs of 163 individuals (75 males, 88 females, age 16-53 years) with mature M3's. Reliability was assessed using Kappa. Accuracy was assessed by subtracting chronological age from estimated age for males and females. Stages were cross-tabulated against age stages younger than and at least 18 and 21 years of age. Stages were compared in the left M3 and right M3. Analysis showed excellent intra-observer reliability. Mean difference between estimated and chronological ages was 7.21 years (SD 5.16) for left M3 and 7.69 (SD 6.08) for right M3 in males and 6.87 (SD 5.83) for left M3 and 8.61 (SD 6.58) for right M3 in females. Minimum ages of stages 0 to 2 were younger than previously reported, despite a small sample of individuals younger than 18. The left and right M3 stage differed in 46% of the 85 individuals with readings from both side and estimated age differed from -10.5 to 12.2 years between left and right. Accuracy of this method was between 6 and 8 years with an error of 5 to 6 years. The number of individuals with mature M3 apices younger than 18 years was small. The stage of visibility of the periodontal ligament differed between left and right in almost half of our sample with both teeth present. Our findings question the use of this method to estimate age or to discriminate between age younger and at least 18 years.

  8. Population-based age group specific annual incidence rates of symptomatic age-related macular degeneration.

    PubMed

    Saari, Jukka M

    2014-01-01

    To study the population-based annual incidence rates of exudative, dry and all cases of symptomatic age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in different age and sex groups. This is a one year, prospective, population-based study on all consecutive new patients with AMD in the hospital district of Central Finland. The diagnosis was confirmed in all patients with slit lamp biomicroscopy, optical coherence tomography (OCT) using a Spectralis HRA + OCT device, and the Heidelberg Eye Explorer 1.6.2.0 program. Fluorescein angiograms were taken when needed. The population-based annual incidence rates of all cases of symptomatic AMD increased from 0.03% (95% CI, 0.01-0.05%) in the age group 50-59 years to 0.82% (95% CI, 0.55-1.09%) in the age group 85-89 years and were 0.2% (95% CI, 0.17-0.24%) in exudative, 0.11% (95% CI, 0.09-0.14%) in dry, and 0.32% (95% CI, 0.28-0.36%) in all cases of AMD in the age group 60 years and older. During the next 20 years in Central Finland the population-based annual incidence rates can be estimated to increase to 0.27% (95% CI, 0.24-0.30%) in exudative, to 0.13% (95% CI, 0.11-0.15%) in dry, and to 0.41% (95% CI, 0.37-0.45%) in all cases of AMD in the age group 60 years and older. The population-based annual incidence of AMD did not show statistically significant differences between males and females (p>0.1). The population-based age-group specific annual incidence rates of symptomatic AMD of this study may help to plan health care provision for patients of AMD.

  9. Demirjian approach of dental age estimation: Abridged for operator ease.

    PubMed

    Jain, Vanshika; Kapoor, Priyanka; Miglani, Ragini

    2016-01-01

    Present times have seen an alarming increase in incidence of crimes by juveniles and of mass destruction that Highlight the preponderance of individual age estimation. Of the numerous techniques employed for age assessment, dental age estimation (DAE) and its correlation with chronological age (CA) have been of great significance in the recent past. Demirjian system, considered as gold standard in DAE is a simple and convenient method for DAE, though,, although, referring to multiple tables make it cumbersome and less eco friendly due to excessive paper load. The present study was aimed to develop a comprehensive chart (DAEcc) inclusive of all Demirjian tables and developmental stages of teeth and also to as well as to test the operator ease of 50 undergraduate dental students in performing DAE using this chart. The study was performed in two stages, wherein the first stage was aimed at formulation of the comprehensive chart (DAE CC ) which included pictorial representation of calcification stages, the Federation Dentaire Internationale notation of the teeth, and the corresponding scores for each stage with a concluding column at the end to enter the total score. The second stage assessed the applicability of the ease of DAE by DAE CC , whereby fifty 2 nd year BDS students were asked to trace the calcification stages of the seven permanent left mandibular teeth on a panorex, identify the correct stage, assign the corresponding score, and to calculate the total score for subsequent dental age assessment. showed that average time taken by the students for tracing seven mandibular teeth was 5 min and for assessment of dental age was 7 min. The total time taken for DAE was approximately 12 min, thus making the procedure less time consuming. Hence, this study proposes the use of DAEcc for age estimation due to ease in comprehension and execution of Demirjian system.

  10. Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.

    2004-01-01

    Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

  11. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  12. Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

    PubMed

    Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

    2018-04-01

    Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  13. Gestational age estimates from singleton births conceived using assisted reproductive technology.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, William M; Schieve, Laura A; Dietz, Patricia M

    2007-09-01

    Information on gestational age for public health research and surveillance in the US is usually obtained from vital records and is primarily based on the first day of the woman's last menstrual period (LMP). However, using LMP as a marker of conception is subject to a variety of errors and results in misclassification of gestational age. Pregnancies conceived through assisted reproductive technology (ART) are unique in that the estimates of gestational age are not based on the LMP, but on the date when fertilisation actually occurred, and thus most gestational age errors are likely to be due to errors introduced in recording and data entry. The purpose of this paper was to examine the birthweight distribution by gestational age for ART singleton livebirths reported to a national ART surveillance system. Gestational age was categorised as 20-27, 28-31, 32-36 and 37-44 weeks; birthweight distributions were plotted for each category. The distributions of very-low-birthweight (VLBW; <1500 g), moderately low-birthweight (1500-2499 g) and normal-birthweight infants for each gestational week were examined. At both 20-27 and 28-31 weeks, there was an extended right tail to the distribution and a small second mode. At 32-36 weeks, there were long tails in either direction and at 37-44 weeks, an extended tail to the left. There was a high proportion of VLBW infants at low gestational ages and a decreasing proportion of VLBW infants with increasing gestational age. However, there was also a fairly constant proportion of normal-birthweight infants at every gestational age below 34 weeks, which suggested misclassification of gestational age. Approximately 12% of ART births classified as 28-31 weeks' gestation had a birthweight in the second mode of the birthweight distribution compared with approximately 29% in national vital statistics data. Even when the birthweight and dates of conception and birth are known, questions remain regarding the residual amount of

  14. Age and growth of round gobies in Lake Michigan, with preliminary mortality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huo, Bin; Madenjian, Charles P.; Xie, Cong X.; Zhao, Yingming; O'Brien, Timothy P.; Czesny, Sergiusz J.

    2015-01-01

    The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is a prevalent invasive species throughout Lake Michigan, as well as other Laurentian Great Lakes, yet little information is available on spatial variation in round goby growth within one body of water. Age and growth of round goby at three areas of Lake Michigan were studied by otolith analysis from a sample of 659 specimens collected from 2008 to 2012. Total length (TL) ranged from 48 to 131 mm for Sturgeon Bay, from 50 to 125 mm for Waukegan, and from 54 to 129 mm for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Ages ranged from 2 to 7 years for Sturgeon Bay, from 2 to 5 years for Waukegan, and from 2 to 6 years for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Area-specific and sex-specific body–otolith relationships were used to back-calculate estimates of total length at age, which were fitted to von Bertalanffy models to estimate growth rates. For both sexes, round gobies at Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan grew significantly faster than those at Sturgeon Bay. However, round goby growth did not significantly differ between Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan for either sex. At all three areas of Lake Michigan, males grew significantly faster than females. Based on catch curve analysis, estimates of annual mortality rates ranged from 0.79 to 0.84. These relatively high mortality rates suggested that round gobies may be under predatory control in Lake Michigan.

  15. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  16. Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

    PubMed

    Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

    2017-11-14

    The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

  17. Improvement of age estimation using amino acid racemization in a case of pink teeth.

    PubMed

    Ohtani, S; Yamada, Y; Yamamoto, I

    1998-03-01

    Age was estimated from pink teeth using racemization of dentinal aspartic acid. Materials for identification were two lower second premolars. The body was determined to be that of a 40-year-old man; however, the age of the decedent had been estimated to be 29 and 30 years by the conventional method and 30 years from findings in the oral cavity. To clarify the cause of this difference, the powdered teeth were further washed in 0.01 mol/L hydrochloric acid. The racemization ratio (D/L ratio) of ordinary white teeth from persons of known age was slightly lower than that before washing, whereas that of the teeth used for identification was higher than before washing. The calculated age of the decedent using the racemization ratio of his teeth was between 36 and 37 years. These results suggest that age estimated from pink teeth is probably underestimated, but a more accurate age estimate can be obtained after adequate washing.

  18. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged <50 years. Data were extracted from IMS' PharMetrics Plus claims database for patients with a diagnosis of pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged <1 year. Method 2 gave an average annual projected incidence of 21/100,000. Method 3 gave an overall regression-estimated weighted annual incidence of pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged <50 years and provide further evidence that the majority of cases go undetected, especially with increasing age, may aid in the development of public health programs to reduce pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  19. Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.

    PubMed

    Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika

    2013-12-10

    Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age. Copyright © 2013

  20. Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

    PubMed

    Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

    2015-04-01

    Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures.

  1. Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

    2003-01-01

    Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

  2. NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

    PubMed

    Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

    2018-01-01

    The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

  3. Defining and Estimating Healthy Aging in Spain: A Cross-sectional Study.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez-Laso, Angel; McLaughlin, Sara J; Urdaneta, Elena; Yanguas, Javier

    2018-03-19

    Using an operational continuum of healthy aging developed by U.S. researchers, we sought to estimate the prevalence of healthy aging among older Spaniards, inform the development of a definition of healthy aging in Spain, and foster cross-national research on healthy aging. The ELES pilot study is a nationwide, cross-sectional survey of community-dwelling Spaniards 50 years and older. The prevalence of healthy aging was calculated for the 65 and over population using varying definitions. To evaluate their validity, we examined the association of healthy aging with the 8 foot up & go test, quality of life scores and self-perceived health using multiple linear and logistic regression. The estimated prevalence of healthy aging varied across the operational continuum, from 4.5% to 49.2%. Prevalence figures were greater for men and those aged 65 to 79 years and were higher than in the United States. Predicted mean physical performance scores were similar for 3 of the 4 definitions, suggesting that stringent definitions of healthy aging offer little advantage over a more moderate one. Similar to U.S. researchers, we recommend a definition of healthy aging that incorporates measures of functional health and limiting disease as opposed to definitions requiring the absence of all disease in studies designed to assess the effect of policy initiatives on healthy aging.

  4. Comparison between Greulich-Pyle and Girdany-Golden methods for estimating skeletal age of children in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Awais, Muhammad; Nadeem, Naila; Husen, Yousuf; Rehman, Abdul; Beg, Madiha; Khattak, Yasir Jamil

    2014-12-01

    To compare Greulich-Pyle (GP) and Girdany-Golden (GG) methods for estimation of Skeletal Age (SA) in children referred to a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. Cross-sectional study. Department of Radiology, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, from July 2010 to June 2012. Children up to the age of 18 years, who had undergone X-ray for the evaluation of trauma were included. Each X-ray was interpreted using both methods by two consultant paediatric radiologists having at least 10 years experience, who were blinded to the actual Chronologic Age (CA) of children. A total of 283 children were included. No significant difference was noted in mean SA estimated by GP method and mean CA for female children (p=0.695). However, a significant difference was noted between mean CA and mean SA by GG method for females (p=0.011). For males, there was a significant difference between mean CA and mean SA estimated by both GP and GG methods. A stronger correlation was found between CA and SA estimated by GP method (r=0.943 for girls, r=0.915 for boys) as compared to GG method (r=0.909 for girls, r=0.865 for boys) respectively. Bland- Altman analysis also revealed that the two methods cannot be used interchangeably. Excellent correlation was seen between the two readers for both GP and GG methods. There was no additional benefit of using GP and GG methods simultaneously over using GP method alone. Moreover, although GP was reliable in estimating SA in girls, it was unable to accurately assess SA in boys. Therefore, it would be ideal to develop indigenous standards of bone age estimation based on a representative sample of healthy native children.

  5. Assessment of Demirjian's 8-teeth technique of age estimation and Indian-specific formulas in an East Indian population: A cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Rath, Hemamalini; Rath, Rachna; Mahapatra, Sandeep; Debta, Tribikram

    2017-01-01

    The age of an individual can be assessed by a plethora of widely available tooth-based techniques, among which radiological methods prevail. The Demirjian's technique of age assessment based on tooth development stages has been extensively investigated in different populations of the world. The present study is to assess the applicability of Demirjian's modified 8-teeth technique in age estimation of population of East India (Odisha), utilizing Acharya's Indian-specific cubic functions. One hundred and six pretreatment orthodontic radiographs of patients in an age group of 7-23 years with representation from both genders were assessed for eight left mandibular teeth and scored as per the Demirjian's 9-stage criteria for teeth development stages. Age was calculated on the basis of Acharya's Indian formula. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the estimated and actual age. All data were analyzed using SPSS 20.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA) and MS Excel Package. The results revealed that the mean absolute error (MAE) in age estimation of the entire sample was 1.3 years with 50% of the cases having an error rate within ± 1 year. The MAE in males and females (7-16 years) was 1.8 and 1.5, respectively. Likewise, the MAE in males and females (16.1-23 years) was 1.1 and 1.3, respectively. The low error rate in estimating age justifies the application of this modified technique and Acharya's Indian formulas in the present East Indian population.

  6. Age diagnosis based on incremental lines in dental cementum: a critical reflection.

    PubMed

    Grosskopf, Birgit; McGlynn, George

    2011-01-01

    Age estimation based on the counting of incremental lines in dental cementum is a method frequently used for the estimation of the age at death for humans in bioarchaeology, and increasingly, forensic anthropology. Assessment of applicability, precision, and method reproducibility continue to be the focus of research in this area, and are occasionally accompanied by significant controversy. Differences in methodological techniques for data collection (e.g. number of sections, factor of magnification for counting or interpreting "outliers") are presented. Potential influences on method reliability are discussed, especially for their applicability in forensic contexts.

  7. [Forensic age estimation in juveniles and young adults: Reducing the range of scatter in age diagnosis by combining different methods].

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Sven; Schramm, Danilo; Ribbecke, Sebastian; Schulz, Ronald; Wittschieber, Daniel; Olze, Andreas; Vieth, Volker; Ramsthaler, H Frank; Pfischel, Klaus; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice.

  8. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

    PubMed Central

    Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

    2013-01-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

  9. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age.

    PubMed

    Royle, Natalie A; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E; Deary, Ian J; Wardlaw, Joanna M

    2013-12-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    PubMed Central

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. PMID:27051633

  11. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

    PubMed

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-03-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  12. Validity of gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and neonatal examination compared to ultrasound in Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Deputy, Nicholas P; Nguyen, Phuong H; Pham, Hoa; Nguyen, Son; Neufeld, Lynnette; Martorell, Reynaldo; Ramakrishnan, Usha

    2017-01-11

    Accurate estimation of gestational age is important for both clinical and public health purposes. Estimates of gestational age using fetal ultrasound measurements are considered most accurate but are frequently unavailable in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of last menstrual period and Farr neonatal examination estimates of gestational age, compared to ultrasound estimates, in a large cohort of women in Vietnam. Data for this analysis come from a randomized, placebo-controlled micronutrient supplementation trial in Vietnam. We analyzed 912 women with ultrasound and prospectively-collected last menstrual period estimates of gestational age and 685 women with ultrasound and Farr estimates of gestational age. We used the Wilcoxon signed rank sum test to assess differences in gestational age estimated by last menstrual period or Farr examination compared to ultrasound and computed the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to quantify agreement between methods. We computed the Kappa coefficient (κ) to quantify agreement in preterm, term and post-term classification. The median gestational age estimated by ultrasound was 273.9 days. Gestational age was slightly overestimated by last menstrual period (median 276.0 days, P < 0.001) and more greatly overestimated by Farr examination (median 286.7 days, P < 0.001). Gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and ultrasound were moderately correlated (ICC = 0.78) and concordant (CCC = 0.63), whereas gestational age estimates by Farr examination and ultrasound were weakly correlated (ICC = 0.26) and concordant (CCC = 0.05). Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age were within ± 14 days for 88.4% of women; Farr and ultrasound estimates were within ± 14 days for 55.8% of women. Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age had higher

  13. Age estimation of archaeological remains using amino acid racemization in dental enamel: a comparison of morphological, biochemical, and known ages-at-death.

    PubMed

    Griffin, R C; Chamberlain, A T; Hotz, G; Penkman, K E H; Collins, M J

    2009-10-01

    The poor accuracy of most current methods for estimating age-at-death in adult human skeletal remains is among the key problems facing palaeodemography. In forensic science, this problem has been solved for unburnt remains by the development of a chemical method for age estimation, using amino acid racemization in collagen extracted from dentine. Previous application of racemization methods to archaeological material has proven problematic. This study presents the application to archaeological human remains of a new age estimation method utilizing amino acid racemization in a potentially closed system-the dental enamel. The amino acid composition and extent of racemization in enamel from two Medieval cemeteries (Newcastle Blackgate and Grantham, England) and from a documented age-at-death sample from a 19th century cemetery (Spitalfriedhof St Johann, Switzerland) were determined. Alterations in the amino acid composition were detected in all populations, indicating that diagenetic change had taken place. However, in the Medieval populations, these changes did not appear to have substantially affected the relationship between racemization and age-at-death, with a strong relationship being retained between aspartic acid racemization and the morphological age estimates. In contrast, there was a poor relationship between racemization and age in the post-medieval documented age-at-death population from Switzerland. This appears to be due to leaching of amino acids post-mortem, indicating that enamel is not functioning as a perfectly closed system. Isolation of amino acids from a fraction of enamel which is less susceptible to leaching may improve the success of amino acid racemization for archaeological age estimation.

  14. Global estimate of the incidence of clinical pneumonia among children under five years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Tomaskovic, Lana; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Campbell, Harry

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Clinical pneumonia (defined as respiratory infections associated with clinical signs of pneumonia, principally pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children under five years of age is still the leading cause of childhood mortality in the world. In this paper we aim to estimate the worldwide incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children. METHODS: Our estimate for the developing world is based on an analysis of published data on the incidence of clinical pneumonia from community based longitudinal studies. Among more than 2000 studies published since 1961, we identified 46 studies that reported the incidence of clinical pneumonia, and 28 of these met pre-defined quality criteria. FINDINGS: The estimate of the median incidence from those studies was 0.28 episodes per child-year (e/cy). The 25-75% interquartile range was 0.21-0.71. We assessed the plausibility of this estimate using estimates of global mortality from acute respiratory infections and reported case fatality rates for all episodes of clinical pneumonia reported in community-based studies or the case-fatality rate reported only for severe cases and estimates of the proportion of severe cases occurring in a defined population or community. CONCLUSION: The overlap between the ranges of the estimates implies that a plausible incidence estimate of clinical pneumonia for developing countries is 0.29 e/cy. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, 11-20 million (7-13%) of which are severe enough to require hospital admission. In the developed world no comparable data are available. However, large population-based studies report that the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children less than five years old is approximately 0.026 e/cy, suggesting that more than 95% of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries. PMID:15654403

  15. Estimation of Correlation between Chronological Age, Skeletal Age and Dental Age in Children- A Cross-sectional Study

    PubMed Central

    Macha, Madhulika; Lamba, Bharti; Muthineni, Sridhar; Margana, Pratap Gowd Jai Shankar; Chitoori, Prasad

    2017-01-01

    Introduction In the modern era, identification and determination of age is imperative for diversity of reasons that include disputed birth records, premature delivery, legal issues and for validation of birth certificate for school admissions, adoption, marriage, job and immigration. Several growth assessment parameters like bone age, dental age and the combination of both have been applied for different population with variable outcomes. It has been well documented that the chronological age does not necessarily correlate with the maturational status of a child. Hence, efforts were made to determine a child’s developmental age by using dental age (calcification of teeth) and skeletal age (skeletal maturation). Aim The present study was aimed to correlate the chronological age, dental age and skeletal age in children from Southeastern region of Andhra Pradesh, India. Materials and Methods Out of the total 900 screened children, only 100 subjects between age groups of 6-14 years with a mean age of 11.3±2.63 for males and 10.77±2.24 for females were selected for the study. Dental age was calculated by Demirjian method and skeletal age by modified Middle Phalanx of left hand third finger (MP3) method. Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlation tests were done to estimate the correlation between chronological, dental and skeletal ages among study population. Results There was a significant positive correlation between chronological age, dental age and all stages of MP3 among males. Similar results were observed in females, except for a non-significant moderate correlation between chronological age and dental age in the H stage of the MP3 region. Conclusion The results of the present study revealed correlation with statistical significance (p<0.05) between chronological, dental and skeletal ages among all the subjects (48 males and 52 females) and females attained maturity earlier than males in the present study population. PMID:29207822

  16. Estimation of Correlation between Chronological Age, Skeletal Age and Dental Age in Children- A Cross-sectional Study.

    PubMed

    Macha, Madhulika; Lamba, Bharti; Avula, Jogendra Sai Sankar; Muthineni, Sridhar; Margana, Pratap Gowd Jai Shankar; Chitoori, Prasad

    2017-09-01

    In the modern era, identification and determination of age is imperative for diversity of reasons that include disputed birth records, premature delivery, legal issues and for validation of birth certificate for school admissions, adoption, marriage, job and immigration. Several growth assessment parameters like bone age, dental age and the combination of both have been applied for different population with variable outcomes. It has been well documented that the chronological age does not necessarily correlate with the maturational status of a child. Hence, efforts were made to determine a child's developmental age by using dental age (calcification of teeth) and skeletal age (skeletal maturation). The present study was aimed to correlate the chronological age, dental age and skeletal age in children from Southeastern region of Andhra Pradesh, India. Out of the total 900 screened children, only 100 subjects between age groups of 6-14 years with a mean age of 11.3±2.63 for males and 10.77±2.24 for females were selected for the study. Dental age was calculated by Demirjian method and skeletal age by modified Middle Phalanx of left hand third finger (MP3) method. Pearson's and Spearman's correlation tests were done to estimate the correlation between chronological, dental and skeletal ages among study population. There was a significant positive correlation between chronological age, dental age and all stages of MP3 among males. Similar results were observed in females, except for a non-significant moderate correlation between chronological age and dental age in the H stage of the MP3 region. The results of the present study revealed correlation with statistical significance (p<0.05) between chronological, dental and skeletal ages among all the subjects (48 males and 52 females) and females attained maturity earlier than males in the present study population.

  17. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

    PubMed

    Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

    2016-09-28

    Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10 -9 ) , independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10 -4 ) , and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10 -43 ). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

  18. An enhanced computational method for age-at-death estimation based on the pubic symphysis using 3D laser scans and thin plate splines.

    PubMed

    Stoyanova, Detelina; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B; Slice, Dennis E

    2015-11-01

    The pubic symphysis is frequently used to estimate age-at-death from the adult skeleton. Assessment methods require the visual comparison of the bone morphology against age-informative characteristics that represent a series of phases. Age-at-death is then estimated from the age-range previously associated with the chosen phase. While easily executed, the "morphoscopic" process of feature-scoring and bone-to-phase-matching is known to be subjective. Studies of method and practitioner error demonstrate a need for alternative tools to quantify age-progressive change in the pubic symphysis. This article proposes a more objective, quantitative method that analyzes three-dimensional (3D) surface scans of the pubic symphysis using a thin plate spline algorithm (TPS). This algorithm models the bending of a flat plane to approximately match the surface of the bone and minimizes the bending energy required for this transformation. Known age-at-death and bending energy were used to construct a linear model to predict age from observed bending energy. This approach is tested with scans from 44 documented white male skeletons and 12 casts. The results of the surface analysis show a significant association (regression p-value = 0.0002 and coefficient of determination = 0.2270) between the minimum bending energy and age-at-death, with a root mean square error of ≈19 years. This TPS method yields estimates comparable to established methods but offers a fully integrated, objective and quantitative framework of analysis and has potential for use in archaeological and forensic casework. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Age estimation in northern Chinese children by measurement of open apices in tooth roots.

    PubMed

    Guo, Yu-Cheng; Yan, Chun-Xia; Lin, Xing-Wei; Zhou, Hong; Li, Ju-Ping; Pan, Feng; Zhang, Zhi-Yong; Wei, Lai; Tang, Zheng; Chen, Teng

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of Cameriere's methods on dental age estimation in the northern Chinese population. A sample of orthopantomographs of 785 healthy children (397 girls and 388 boys) aged between 5 and 15 years was collected. The seven left permanent mandibular teeth were evaluated with Cameriere's method. The sample was split into a training set to develop a Chinese-specific prediction formula and a test set to validate this novel developed formula. Following the training dataset study, the variables gender (g), x 3 (canine teeth), x 4 (first premolar), x 7 (second molar), N 0, and the first-order interaction between s and N 0 contributed significantly to the fit, yielding the following linear regression formula: Age = 10.202 + 0.826 g - 4.068x 3 - 1.536x 4 - 1.959x 7 + 0.536 N 0 - 0.219 s [Symbol: see text] N 0, where g is a variable, 1 for boys and 0 for girls. The equation explained 91.2 % (R (2) = 0.912) of the total deviance. By analyzing the test dataset, the accuracy of the European formula and Chinese formula was determined by the difference between the estimated dental age (DA) and chronological age (CA). The European formula verified on the collected Chinese children underestimated chronological age with a mean difference of around -0.23 year, while the Chinese formula underestimated the chronological age with a mean difference of -0.04 year. Significant differences in mean differences in years (DA - CA) and absolute difference (AD) between the Chinese-specific prediction formula and Cameriere's European formula were observed. In conclusion, a Chinese-specific prediction formula based on a large Chinese reference sample could ameliorate the age prediction accuracy in the age group of children.

  20. Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

    PubMed

    Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

    2012-12-01

    The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

  1. Test-based age-of-acquisition norms for 44 thousand English word meanings.

    PubMed

    Brysbaert, Marc; Biemiller, Andrew

    2017-08-01

    Age of acquisition (AoA) is an important variable in word recognition research. Up to now, nearly all psychology researchers examining the AoA effect have used ratings obtained from adult participants. An alternative basis for determining AoA is directly testing children's knowledge of word meanings at various ages. In educational research, scholars and teachers have tried to establish the grade at which particular words should be taught by examining the ages at which children know various word meanings. Such a list is available from Dale and O'Rourke's (1981) Living Word Vocabulary for nearly 44 thousand meanings coming from over 31 thousand unique word forms and multiword expressions. The present article relates these test-based AoA estimates to lexical decision times as well as to AoA adult ratings, and reports strong correlations between all of the measures. Therefore, test-based estimates of AoA can be used as an alternative measure.

  2. Forensic dental age estimation by measuring root dentin translucency area using a new digital technique.

    PubMed

    Acharya, Ashith B

    2014-05-01

    Dentin translucency measurement is an easy yet relatively accurate approach to postmortem age estimation. Translucency area represents a two-dimensional change and may reflect age variations better than length. Manually measuring area is challenging and this paper proposes a new digital method using commercially available computer hardware and software. Area and length were measured on 100 tooth sections (age range, 19-82 years) of 250 μm thickness. Regression analysis revealed lower standard error of estimate and higher correlation with age for length than for area (R = 0.62 vs. 0.60). However, test of regression formulae on a control sample (n = 33, 21-85 years) showed smaller mean absolute difference (8.3 vs. 8.8 years) and greater frequency of smaller errors (73% vs. 67% age estimates ≤ ± 10 years) for area than for length. These suggest that digital area measurements of root translucency may be used as an alternative to length in forensic age estimation. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  3. Age estimation by dentin translucency measurement using digital method: An institutional study

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Shalini; Chandra, Akhilesh; Agnihotri, Archana; Gupta, Om Prakash; Maurya, Niharika

    2017-01-01

    Aims: The aims of the present study were to measure translucency on sectioned teeth using available computer hardware and software, to correlate dimensions of root dentin translucency with age, and to assess whether translucency is reliable for age estimation. Materials and Methods: A pilot study was done on 62 freshly extracted single-rooted permanent teeth from 62 different individuals (35 males and 27 females) and their 250 μm thick sections were prepared by micromotor, carborundum disks, and Arkansas stone. Each tooth section was scanned and the images were opened in the Adobe Photoshop software. Measurement of root dentin translucency (TD length) was done on the scanned image by placing two guides (A and B) along the x-axis of ABFO NO. 2 scale. Unpaired t-test, regression analysis, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used as statistical tools. Results: A linear relationship was observed between TD length and age in the regression analysis. The Pearson correlation analysis showed that there was positive correlation (r = 0.52, P = 0.0001) between TD length and age. However, no significant (P > 0.05) difference was observed in the TD length between male (8.44 ± 2.92 mm) and female (7.80 ± 2.79 mm) samples. Conclusion: Translucency of the root dentin increases with age and it can be used as a reliable parameter for the age estimation. The method used here to digitally select and measure translucent root dentin is more refined, better correlated to age, and produce superior age estimation. PMID:28584476

  4. Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.

    1988-01-01

    It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

  5. Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

    PubMed

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2011-01-01

    Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  6. Precision of hard structures used to estimate age of mountain Whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    The mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) is a widely distributed salmonid in western North America that has decreased in abundance over portions of its distribution due to anthropogenic disturbances. In this investigation, we examined precision of age estimates derived from scales, pectoral fin rays, and sagittal otoliths from 167 mountain whitefish. Otoliths and pectoral fin rays were mounted in epoxy and cross-sectioned before examination. Scales were pressed onto acetate slides and resulting impressions were examined. Between-reader precision (i.e., between 2 readers), between-reader variability, and reader confidence ratings were compared among hard structures. Coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and percentage of exact agreement (PA-0) was highest for scales (CV = 5.9; PA-0 = 70%) compared to pectoral fin rays (CV =11.0; PA-0 = 58%) and otoliths (CV = 12.3; PA-0 = 55%). Median confidence ratings were significantly different (P ≤ 0.05) among all structures, with scales having the highest median confidence. Reader confidence decreased with fish age for scales and pectoral fin rays, but reader confidence increased with fish age for otoliths. In general, age estimates were more precise and reader confidence was higher for scales compared to pectoral fin rays and otoliths. This research will help fisheries biologists in selecting the most appropriate hard structure to use for future age and growth studies on mountain whitefish. In turn, selection of the most precise hard structure will lead to better estimates of dynamic rate functions.

  7. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T.; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J.; Pankow, James S.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as “epigenetic age”, “DNAm age”, have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2×10−9), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4×10−4), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5×10−43). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality. PMID:27690265

  8. A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the

  9. Incidence of breast cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis after the initiation of a population-based mammography screening program.

    PubMed

    Coldman, Andrew; Phillips, Norm

    2013-07-09

    There has been growing interest in the overdiagnosis of breast cancer as a result of mammography screening. We report incidence rates in British Columbia before and after the initiation of population screening and provide estimates of overdiagnosis. We obtained the numbers of breast cancer diagnoses from the BC Cancer Registry and screening histories from the Screening Mammography Program of BC for women aged 30-89 years between 1970 and 2009. We calculated age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ. We compared these rates by age, calendar period and screening participation. We obtained 2 estimates of overdiagnosis from cumulative cancer rates among women between the ages of 40 and 89 years: the first estimate compared participants with nonparticipants; the second estimate compared observed and predicted population rates. We calculated participation-based estimates of overdiagnosis to be 5.4% for invasive disease alone and 17.3% when ductal carcinoma in situ was included. The corresponding population-based estimates were -0.7% and 6.7%. Participants had higher rates of invasive cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ than nonparticipants but lower rates after screening stopped. Population incidence rates for invasive cancer increased after 1980; by 2009, they had returned to levels similar to those of the 1970s among women under 60 years of age but remained elevated among women 60-79 years old. Rates of ductal carcinoma in situ increased in all age groups. The extent of overdiagnosis of invasive cancer in our study population was modest and primarily occurred among women over the age of 60 years. However, overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ was elevated for all age groups. The estimation of overdiagnosis from observational data is complex and subject to many influences. The use of mammography screening in older women has an increased risk of overdiagnosis, which should be considered in screening decisions.

  10. Age estimates for the late quaternary high sea-stands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smart, Peter L.; Richards, David A.

    A database of more than 300 published alpha-counted uranium-series ages has been compiled for coral reef terraces formed by Late Pleistocene high sea-stands. The database was screened to eliminate unreliable age estimates ( {230Th }/{232Th } < 20, calcite > 5%) and those without quoted without quoted errors, and a distributed error frequency curve was produced. This curve can be considered as a finite mixture model comprising k component normal distributions each with a weighting α. By using an expectation maximising algorithm, the mean and standard deviation of the component distributions, each corresponding to a high sea level event, were estimated. Eight high sea-stands with mean and standard deviations of 129.0 ± 33.0, 123.0 ± 13.0, 102.5 ± 2.0, 81.5 ± 5.0, 61.5 ± 6.0, 50.0 ± 1.0, 40.5 ± 5.0 and 33.0 ± 2.5 ka were resolved. The standard deviations are generally larger than the values quoted for individual age estimates. Whilst this may be due to diagenetic effects, especially for the older corals, it is argued that in many cases geological evidence clearly indicates that the high stands are multiple events, often not resolvable at sites with low rates of uplift. The uranium-series dated coral-reef terrace chronology shows good agreement with independent chronologies derived for Antarctic ice cores, although the resolution for the latter is better. Agreement with orbitally-tuned deep-sea core records is also good, but it is argued that Isotope Stage 5e is not a single event, as recorded in the cores, but a multiple event spanning some 12 ka. The much earlier age for Isotope Stage 5e given by Winograd et al. (1988) is not supported by the coral reef data, but further mass-spectrometric uranium-series dating is needed to permit better chronological resolution.

  11. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  12. Porosity estimation of aged mortar using a micromechanical model.

    PubMed

    Hernández, M G; Anaya, J J; Sanchez, T; Segura, I

    2006-12-22

    Degradation of concrete structures located in high humidity atmospheres or under flowing water is a very important problem. In this study, a method for ultrasonic non-destructive characterization in aged mortar is presented. The proposed method makes a prediction of the behaviour of aged mortar accomplished with a three phase micromechanical model using ultrasonic measurements. Aging mortar was accelerated by immersing the probes in ammonium nitrate solution. Both destructive and non-destructive characterization of mortar was performed. Destructive tests of porosity were performed using a vacuum saturation method and non-destructive characterization was carried out using ultrasonic velocities. Aging experiments show that mortar degradation not only involves a porosity increase, but also microstructural changes in the cement matrix. Experimental results show that the estimated porosity using the proposed non-destructive methodology had a comparable performance to classical destructive techniques.

  13. A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McMahon, P.B.; Plummer, Niel; Böhlke, J.K.; Shapiro, S.D.; Hinkle, S.R.

    2011-01-01

    An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

  14. Plasma creatinine levels, estimated glomerular filtration rate and carotid intima media thickness in middle-aged women: a population based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Gentile, M; Panico, S; Mattiello, A; de Michele, M; Iannuzzi, A; Jossa, F; Marotta, G; Rubba, P

    2014-06-01

    The relationships between high Creatinine (Cr) levels or low estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) and common carotid Intima Media thickness (IMT) have been evaluated in a population-based cohort study in women, aged 30-69 (Progetto ATENA). Serum Cr and eGFR were measured in 310 women, as a part of 5.062. In this group carotid ultrasound examination (B-Mode imaging) was performed and mean max IMT was calculated. Women were classified by Cr levels >1 mg/dL or eGFR < 56 ml/min. Women with Cr > 1 mg/dL (90th percentile of creatinine distribution) or eGFR less than 56 ml/min (5th percentile of eGFR distribution) had relatively more carotid plaques as compared to the rest of the cohort. Multivariate logistic analysis, after adjustment for age, demonstrated a significant association between Cr (>1 mg/dL) and IMT (≥1.2 mm): OR 4.12 (C.I 1.22-13.86), p = 0.022; or eGFR (<56 ml/min) and IMT (≥1.2 mm): OR 4.31 (C.I 1.27-14.66), p = 0.019. These findings on an independent relationship between Cr and common carotid plaques in this population of middle aged women, independently of age, suggest the value of screening for early carotid disease in asymptomatic middle aged-women with mild renal insufficiency, in order to predict those at relatively higher risk for future cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, andmore » a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.« less

  16. Age estimation by canines' pulp/tooth ratio in an Iranian population using digital panoramic radiography.

    PubMed

    Dehghani, Mahdieh; Shadkam, Elaheh; Ahrari, Farzaneh; Dehghani, Mahboobe

    2018-04-01

    Age estimation in adults is an important issue in forensic science. This study aimed to estimate the chronological age of Iranians by means of pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of canines in digital panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of panoramic radiographs of 271 male and female subjects aged 16-64 years. The pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of upper and lower canines was calculated by AutoCAD software. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis. There was a significant and inverse correlation between age and pulp/tooth area ratio of upper and lower canines (r=-0.794 for upper canine and r=-0.282 for lower canine; p-value<0.001). Linear regression equations were derived separately for upper, lower and both canines. The mean difference between actual and estimated age using upper canine was 6.07±1.7. The results showed that the pulp/tooth area ratios of canines are a reliable method for age estimation in Iranians. The pulp/tooth area ratio of upper canine was better correlated with chronological age than that of lower canine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Communication-based assessment of developmental age for young children with developmental disabilities.

    PubMed

    DeVeney, Shari L; Hoffman, Lesa; Cress, Cynthia J

    2012-06-01

    In this study, the authors compared a multiple-domain strategy for assessing developmental age of young children with developmental disabilities who were at risk for long-term reliance on augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) with a communication-based strategy composed of receptive language and communication indices that may be less affected by physically challenging tasks than traditional developmental age scores. Participants were 42 children (age 9-27 months) with developmental disabilities and who were at risk for long-term reliance on AAC. Children were assessed longitudinally in their homes at 3 occasions over 18 months using multiple-domain and communication-based measures. Confirmatory factor analysis examined dimensionality across the measures, and age-equivalence scores under each strategy were compared, where possible. The communication-based latent factor of developmental age demonstrated good reliability and was almost perfectly correlated with the multiple-domain latent factor. However, the mean age-equivalence score of the communication-based assessment significantly exceeded that of the multiple-domain assessment by 5.3 months across ages. Clinicians working with young children with developmental disabilities should consider a communication-based approach as an alternative developmental age assessment strategy for characterizing children's capabilities, identifying challenges, and developing interventions. A communication-based developmental age estimation is sufficiently reliable and may result in more valid inferences about developmental age for children whose developmental or cognitive age scores may otherwise be limited by their physical capabilities.

  18. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana)

    PubMed Central

    Stansfield, Fiona J.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These ‘Age Reference Lines’ were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70–75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  19. Estimation of the age of bruising.

    PubMed Central

    Stephenson, T; Bialas, Y

    1996-01-01

    Paediatricians are often requested to give an opinion on the age of a non-accidental bruise. In forensic textbooks, the colour changes which a bruise undergoes with time are not based on research in children. The purpose of this study was to document the sequence of colour changes in photographs taken following accidental bruising in children. Fifty accidental bruises of known age in 23 children were photographed by a medical photographer using the same equipment throughout. The photographs were reviewed by a single observer, blind to the true age of the injury, who described the colours present in the bruise. Red colouration was seen in 15 out of 37 bruises which were less than one week old. Yellow colouration was seen in 10 out of 42 bruises over one day old. Aging of bruises from photographs was much less precise than textbooks imply. PMID:8660049

  20. Development of a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation (DAE) and testing of this with a separate Validation Set (VS) in a southern Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

    2016-10-01

    Many countries have recently experienced a rapid increase in the demand for forensic age estimates of unaccompanied minors. Hong Kong is a major tourist and business center where there has been an increase in the number of people intercepted with false travel documents. An accurate estimation of age is only possible when a dataset for age estimation that has been derived from the corresponding ethnic population. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop and validate a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation for southern Chinese. A total of 2306 subjects were selected from the patient archives of a large dental hospital and the chronological age for each subject was recorded. This age was assigned to each specific stage of dental development for each tooth to create a RDS. To validate this RDS, a further 484 subjects were randomly chosen from the patient archives and their dental age was assessed based on the scores from the RDS. Dental age was estimated using meta-analysis command corresponding to random effects statistical model. Chronological age (CA) and Dental Age (DA) were compared using the paired t-test. The overall difference between the chronological and dental age (CA-DA) was 0.05 years (2.6 weeks) for males and 0.03 years (1.6 weeks) for females. The paired t-test indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the chronological and dental age (p > 0.05). The validated southern Chinese reference dataset based on dental maturation accurately estimated the chronological age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  1. MRI Estimates of Brain Iron Concentration in Normal Aging Using Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping

    PubMed Central

    Bilgic, Berkin; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Rohlfing, Torsten; Sullivan, Edith V.; Adalsteinsson, Elfar

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying tissue iron concentration in vivo is instrumental for understanding the role of iron in physiology and in neurological diseases associated with abnormal iron distribution. Herein, we use recently-developed Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping (QSM) methodology to estimate the tissue magnetic susceptibility based on MRI signal phase. To investigate the effect of different regularization choices, we implement and compare ℓ1 and ℓ2 norm regularized QSM algorithms. These regularized approaches solve for the underlying magnetic susceptibility distribution, a sensitive measure of the tissue iron concentration, that gives rise to the observed signal phase. Regularized QSM methodology also involves a pre-processing step that removes, by dipole fitting, unwanted background phase effects due to bulk susceptibility variations between air and tissue and requires data acquisition only at a single field strength. For validation, performances of the two QSM methods were measured against published estimates of regional brain iron from postmortem and in vivo data. The in vivo comparison was based on data previously acquired using Field-Dependent Relaxation Rate Increase (FDRI), an estimate of MRI relaxivity enhancement due to increased main magnetic field strength, requiring data acquired at two different field strengths. The QSM analysis was based on susceptibility-weighted images acquired at 1.5T, whereas FDRI analysis used Multi-Shot Echo-Planar Spin Echo images collected at 1.5T and 3.0T. Both datasets were collected in the same healthy young and elderly adults. The in vivo estimates of regional iron concentration comported well with published postmortem measurements; both QSM approaches yielded the same rank ordering of iron concentration by brain structure, with the lowest in white matter and the highest in globus pallidus. Further validation was provided by comparison of the in vivo measurements, ℓ1-regularized QSM versus FDRI and ℓ2-regularized QSM versus

  2. A Prospective Hospital-based Surveillance to Estimate Rotavirus Disease Burden in Bhutanese Children under 5 Years of Age.

    PubMed

    Wangchuk, Sonam; Dorji, Tshering; Tsheten; Tshering, Karchung; Zangmo, Sangay; Pem Tshering, Kunzang; Dorji, Tandin; Nishizono, Akira; Ahmed, Kamruddin

    2015-03-01

    As part of efforts to develop an informed policy for rotavirus vaccination, this prospective study was conducted to estimate the burden of rotavirus diarrhea among children less than 5 years old attended to the Department of Pediatrics, Jigme Dorji Wangchuk National Referral Hospital (JDWNRH), Thimphu, Bhutan. The duration of the study was three years, extending from February 2010 through December 2012. We estimated the frequency of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and dehydration treatment unit (DTU) for diarrhea and the number of events attributable to rotavirus infection among children under 5 years of age. During the study period, a total of 284 children (1 in 45) were hospitalized in the pediatric ward, and 2,220 (1 in 6) in the DTU with diarrhea among children residing in the Thimphu district. Group A rotavirus was detected in 32.5% and 18.8% of the stool samples from children hospitalized in the pediatric ward, respectively. Overall, 22.3% of the stool samples were rotavirus-positive, and the majority (90.8%) of them was detected in children under 2 years of age. From this study, we estimated that the annual incidence of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and DTU due to rotavirus diarrhea was 2.4/1000 (95% CI 1.7-3.4) and 10.8/1000 (95% CI 9.1-12.7) children, respectively. This study revealed that rotavirus is a major cause of diarrhea in Bhutanese children in Thimphu district and since no study has been performed previously, represents an important finding for policy discussions regarding the adoption of a rotavirus vaccine in Bhutan.

  3. A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

    PubMed

    Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

    2017-01-01

    Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  4. Estimation of Gestational Age, Using Neonatal Anthropometry: A Cross-sectional Study in India

    PubMed Central

    Thawani, Rajat; Faridi, M.M.A.; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

    2013-01-01

    Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R=0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R=0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks)=5.437×W–0.781×W2+2.815×HC–0.041×HC2+0.285×MUAC–22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R=0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46% (±1 week), 75

  5. Precision and accuracy of commonly used dental age estimation charts for the New Zealand population.

    PubMed

    Baylis, Stephanie; Bassed, Richard

    2017-08-01

    Little research has been undertaken for the New Zealand population in the field of dental age estimation. This research to date indicates there are differences in dental developmental rates between the New Zealand population and other global population groups, and within the New Zealand population itself. Dental age estimation methods range from dental development charts to complex biometric analysis. Dental development charts are not the most accurate method of dental age estimation, but are time saving in their use. They are an excellent screening tool, particularly for post-mortem identification purposes, and for assessing variation from population norms in living individuals. The aim of this study was to test the precision and accuracy of three dental development charts (Schour and Massler, Blenkin and Taylor, and the London Atlas), used to estimate dental age of a sample of New Zealand juveniles between the ages of 5 and 18 years old (n=875). Percentage 'best fit' to correct age category and to expected chart stage were calculated to determine which chart was the most precise for the sample. Chronological ages were compared to estimated dental ages using a two-tailed paired t-test (P<0.05) for each of the three methods. The mean differences between CA and DA were calculated to determine bias and the absolute mean differences were calculated to indicate accuracy. The results of this study show that while accuracy and precision were low for all charts tested against the New Zealand population sample, the Blenkin and Taylor Australian charts performed best overall. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Comparative precision of age estimates from two southern reservoir populations of paddlefish [Polyodon spathula (Walbaum, 1792)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, James M.; Nealis, Ashley

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine whether location and sex affected the age precision estimates between two southern, reservoir populations of paddlefish [Polyodon spathula (Walbaum, 1792)]. From 589 paddlefish collected in Grand Lake and Keystone Lake, Oklahoma in 2011, ages from dentaries were estimated using three independent readers and precision was compared with coefficient of variation between locations and sexes. Ages were more precisely estimated from Grand Lake and from females.

  7. Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure.

    PubMed

    Martins, Rui; Oliveira, Paulo Eduardo; Schmitt, Aurore

    2012-06-10

    We discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, Great-Britain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Comparison of the precision of age estimates generated from fin rays, scales, and otoliths of Blue Sucker

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Acre, Matthew R.; Alejandrez, Celeste; East, Jessica; Massure, Wade A.; Miyazono, S.; Pease, Jessica E.; Roesler, Elizabeth L.; Williams, H.M.; Grabowski, Timothy B.

    2017-01-01

    Evaluating the precision of age estimates generated by different readers and different calcified structures is an important part of generating reliable estimations of growth, recruitment, and mortality for fish populations. Understanding the potential loss of precision associated with using structures harvested without sacrificing individuals, such as scales or fin rays, is particularly important when working with imperiled species, such as Cycleptus elongatus (Blue Sucker). We collected otoliths (lapilli), scales, and the first fin rays of the dorsal, anal, pelvic, and pectoral fins of 9 Blue Suckers. We generated age estimates from each structure by both experienced (n = 5) and novice (n = 4) readers. We found that, independent of the structure used to generate the age estimates, the mean coefficient of variation (CV) of experienced readers was approximately 29% lower than that of novice readers. Further, the mean CV of age estimates generated from pectoral-fin rays, pelvic-fin rays, and scales were statistically indistinguishable and less than those of dorsal-fin rays, anal-fin rays, and otoliths. Anal-, dorsal-, and pelvic-fin rays and scales underestimated age compared to otoliths, but age estimates from pectoral-fin rays were comparable to those from otoliths. Skill level, structure, and fish total-length influenced reader precision between subsequent reads of the same aging structure from a particular fish. Using structures that can be harvested non-lethally to estimate the age of Blue Sucker can provide reliable and reproducible results, similar to those that would be expected from using otoliths. Therefore, we recommend the use of pectoral-fin rays as a non-lethal method to obtain age estimates for Blue Suckers.

  9. Estimation of age in the living: in matters civil and criminal.

    PubMed

    Aggrawal, Anil

    2009-05-11

    Estimation of age is one of the main tasks of a forensic practitioner, especially in third world countries, where many births take place in rural settings without the benefit of the expert supervision of a trained obstetrician. Such births are poorly recorded or more often not recorded at all in terms of exact dates. In many other cases, records are fraudulently falsified for some gain, e.g. to get government jobs or pensions. Developed countries, where ordinarily the birth records are meticulously maintained, are not immune to this problem either. Estimation of the age of living individuals may be needed here for refugees or other persons who arrive without acceptable identification papers. A wide variety of methods are used by the forensic clinician to assess the age of the individual in such cases. This paper discusses and evaluates the most common methods used in India, although the methods can be effectively utilized by medico-legal professionals anywhere in the world.

  10. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods.

    PubMed

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation.

  11. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in western Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Li, Guo; Ren, Jiayin; Zhao, Shuping; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Na; Wu, Wanhong; Yuan, Shanshan; Wang, Hu

    2012-06-10

    The purpose of this study is to provide reference data about estimating dental age from third molars of the western Chinese population for comparing with other populations and being applied to the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents. A total of 2078 digital panoramic radiographs of 989 male and 1089 female Chinese subjects aged between 5 and 23 years were examined. The mineralization status of the third molars was assessed using the formation stages described by Demirjian et al. with two modifications. The results showed that the development of third molars in the western Chinese population was likely to begin at age 5 in both males and females. The third molars 28 and 48 showed significantly higher frequency in females than in males. The third molars 18 in the stage 1, 38 in the stages 1, A and G, and 48 in the stage H showed significantly older average age in females than in males. The Demirjian's stages C and D could be used as a reference stage to determine dichotomously whether a western Chinese is more likely to be under or above age 14 or 16, respectively. This study provided reference data for the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents by the mineralization stages of the third molar. Apart from forensic age determination in living subjects, the presented reference data can also be used for age estimations of unidentified corpses and skeletons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Evidence-based design recommendations for prevalence studies on multimorbidity: improving comparability of estimates.

    PubMed

    Holzer, Barbara M; Siebenhuener, Klarissa; Bopp, Matthias; Minder, Christoph E

    2017-03-07

    In aging populations, multimorbidity causes a disease burden of growing importance and cost. However, estimates of the prevalence of multimorbidity (prevMM) vary widely across studies, impeding valid comparisons and interpretation of differences. With this study we pursued two research objectives: (1) to identify a set of study design and demographic factors related to prevMM, and (2) based on (1), to formulate design recommendations for future studies with improved comparability of prevalence estimates. Study data were obtained through systematic review of the literature. UsingPubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Google Scholar, we looked for articles with the terms "multimorbidity," "comorbidity," "polymorbidity," and variations of these published in English or German in the years 1990 to 2011. We selected quantitative studies of the prevalence of multimorbidity (two or more chronic medical conditions) with a minimum sample size of 50 and a study population with a majority of Caucasians. Our database consisted of prevalence estimates in 108 age groups taken from 45 studies. To assess the effects of study design variables, we used meta regression models. In 58% of the studies, there was only one age group, i.e., no stratification by age. The number of persons per age group ranged from 136 to 5.6 million. Our analyses identified the following variables as highly significant: "mean age," "number of age groups", and "data reporting quality" (all p < 0.0001). "Setting," "disease classification," and "number of diseases in the classification" were significant (0.01 < p ≤ 0.03), and "data collection period" and "data source" were non-significant. A separate analysis showed that prevMM was significantly higher in women than men (sign test, p = 0.0015). Comparable prevalence estimates are urgently needed for realistic description of the magnitude of the problem of multimorbidity. Based on the results of our analyses of variables

  13. An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

    2011-01-01

    Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

  14. Assessment of the dorsal fin spine for chimaeroid (Holocephali: Chimaeriformes) age estimation.

    PubMed

    Barnett, L A K; Ebert, D A; Cailliet, G M

    2009-10-01

    Previous attempts to age chimaeroids have not rigorously tested assumptions of dorsal fin spine growth dynamics. Here, novel imaging and data-analysis techniques revealed that the dorsal fin spine of the spotted ratfish Hydrolagus colliei is an unreliable structure for age estimation. Variation among individuals in the relationship between spine width and distance from the spine tip indicated that the technique of transverse sectioning may impart imprecision and bias to age estimates. The number of growth-band pairs observed by light microscopy in the inner dentine layer was not a good predictor of body size. Mineral density gradients, indicative of growth zones, were absent in the dorsal fin spine of H. colliei, decreasing the likelihood that the bands observed by light microscopy represent a record of growth with consistent periodicity. These results indicate that the hypothesis of aseasonal growth remains plausible and it should not be assumed that chimaeroid age is quantifiable by standard techniques.

  15. Estimation of the aging grade of T91 steel by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy coupled with support vector machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Shengzi; Dong, Meirong; Huang, Jianwei; Li, Wenbing; Lu, Jidong; Li, Jun

    2018-02-01

    T91 steel is a representative martensitic heat-resistant steel widely used in high temperature compression components of industrial equipment. During the service period, the operation safety and the service life of the equipment will be affected by the change of structure and mechanical properties of the steel components, which is called material aging. In order to develop a rapid in-situ aging estimation technology of high temperature compression components surface, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) coupled with support vector machine (SVM) was employed in this paper. The spectral characteristics of 10 T91 steel specimens with different aging grades were analyzed. Line intensities and the line intensity ratios (ionic/atomic and alloying element/matrix element) that indicate the change of metallographic structure were used to establish SVM models, and the results using different variable sets were compared. The model was optimized by comparing different pulse number for practical effectiveness, and the robustness of the model was investigated in dealing with the inhomogeneity of steel composition. The study results show that the estimation model obtained the best performance using line intensities and line intensity ratios averaged from 31st-60th laser pulses as input variables. The estimation accuracy of validation set was greatly improved from 75.8% to 95.3%. In addition, the model showed the outstanding capacity for handling the fluctuations of spectral signals between measuring-points (spots), which indicated that the aging estimation based on a few measuring-points is feasible. The studies presented here demonstrate that the LIBS coupled with SVM is a new useful technique for the aging estimation of steel, and would be well-suited for fast safety assessment in industrial field.

  16. A Novel Method for Age Estimation in Solar-Type Stars Through GALEX FUV Magnitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Kelly; Subramonian, Arjun; Smith, Graeme; Shouru Shieh

    2018-01-01

    Utilizing an inverse association known to exist between Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes and the chromospheric activity of F, G, and K dwarfs, we explored a method of age estimation in solar-type stars through GALEX FUV magnitudes. Sample solar-type star data were collected from refereed publications and filtered by B-V and absolute visual magnitude to ensure similarities in temperature and luminosity to the Sun. We determined FUV-B and calculated a residual index Q for all the stars, using the temperature-induced upper bound on FUV-B as the fiducial. Plotting current age estimates for the stars against Q, we discovered a strong and significant association between the variables. By applying a log-linear transformation to the data to produce a strong correlation between Q and loge Age, we confirmed the association between Q and age to be exponential. Thus, least-squares regression was used to generate an exponential model relating Q to age in solar-type stars, which can be used by astronomers. The Q-method of stellar age estimation is simple and more efficient than existing spectroscopic methods and has applications to galactic archaeology and stellar chemical composition analysis.

  17. Observations-based GPP estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joiner, J.; Yoshida, Y.; Jung, M.; Tucker, C. J.; Pinzon, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    We have developed global estimates of gross primary production based on a relatively simple satellite observations-based approach using reflectance data from the MODIS instruments in the form of vegetation indices that provide information about photosynthetic capacity at both high temporal and spatial resolution and combined with information from chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 instrument that is noisier and available only at lower temporal and spatial scales. We compare our gross primary production estimates with those from eddy covariance flux towers and show that they are competitive with more complicated extrapolated machine learning gross primary production products. Our results provide insight into the amount of variance in gross primary production that can be explained with satellite observations data and also show how processing of the satellite reflectance data is key to using it for accurate GPP estimates.

  18. A physics-based fractional order model and state of energy estimation for lithium ion batteries. Part II: Parameter identification and state of energy estimation for LiFePO4 battery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiaoyu; Pan, Ke; Fan, Guodong; Lu, Rengui; Zhu, Chunbo; Rizzoni, Giorgio; Canova, Marcello

    2017-11-01

    State of energy (SOE) is an important index for the electrochemical energy storage system in electric vehicles. In this paper, a robust state of energy estimation method in combination with a physical model parameter identification method is proposed to achieve accurate battery state estimation at different operating conditions and different aging stages. A physics-based fractional order model with variable solid-state diffusivity (FOM-VSSD) is used to characterize the dynamic performance of a LiFePO4/graphite battery. In order to update the model parameter automatically at different aging stages, a multi-step model parameter identification method based on the lexicographic optimization is especially designed for the electric vehicle operating conditions. As the battery available energy changes with different applied load current profiles, the relationship between the remaining energy loss and the state of charge, the average current as well as the average squared current is modeled. The SOE with different operating conditions and different aging stages are estimated based on an adaptive fractional order extended Kalman filter (AFEKF). Validation results show that the overall SOE estimation error is within ±5%. The proposed method is suitable for the electric vehicle online applications.

  19. Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    PubMed

    Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

    2018-06-01

    Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used: evaluation of an ad-hoc procedure.

    PubMed

    Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen-Tangmose, Sara; Lynnerup, Niels; Boldsen, Jesper; Thevissen, Patrick

    2016-03-01

    When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple indicators is not the calculation of a combined point estimate for age but the construction of an appropriate prediction interval. Ignoring the correlation between the age indicators results in intervals being too small. Boldsen et al. (2002) presented an ad-hoc procedure to construct an approximate confidence interval without the need to model the multivariate correlation structure between the indicators. The aim of the present paper is to bring under attention this pragmatic approach and to evaluate its performance in a practical setting. This is all the more needed since recent publications ignore the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.

  1. Measured maximal heart rates compared to commonly used age-based prediction equations in the Heritage Family Study.

    PubMed

    Sarzynski, M A; Rankinen, T; Earnest, C P; Leon, A S; Rao, D C; Skinner, J S; Bouchard, C

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine how well two commonly used age-based prediction equations for maximal heart rate (HRmax ) estimate the actual HRmax measured in Black and White adults from the HERITAGE Family Study. A total of 762 sedentary subjects (39% Black, 57% Females) from HERITAGE were included. HRmax was measured during maximal exercise tests using cycle ergometers. Age-based HRmax was predicted using the Fox (220-age) and Tanaka (208 - 0.7 × age) formulas. The standard error of estimate (SEE) of predicted HRmax was 12.4 and 11.4 bpm for the Fox and Tanaka formulas, respectively, indicating a wide-spread of measured-HRmax values are compared to their age-predicted values. The SEE (shown as Fox/Tanaka) was higher in Blacks (14.4/13.1 bpm) and Males (12.6/11.7 bpm) compared to Whites (11.0/10.2 bpm) and Females (12.3/11.2 bpm) for both formulas. The SEE was higher in subjects above the BMI median (12.8/11.9 bpm) and below the fitness median (13.4/12.4 bpm) when compared to those below the BMI median (12.2/11.0 bpm) and above the fitness median (11.4/10.3) for both formulas. Our findings show that based on the SEE, the prevailing age-based estimated HRmax equations do not precisely predict an individual's measured-HRmax . Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parmenter, R.R.; Yates, Terry L.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Dunnum, J.L.; Franklin, A.B.; Friggens, M.T.; Lubow, B.C.; Miller, M.; Olson, G.S.; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Pollard, J.; Rexstad, E.; Shenk, T.M.; Stanley, T.R.; White, Gary C.

    2003-01-01

    blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models Mb and Mbh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research

  3. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods

    PubMed Central

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. Objectives: The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. Conclusion: The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation. PMID:25709325

  4. Age-Based Methods to Explore Time-Related Variables in Occupational Epidemiology Studies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Janice P. Watkins, Edward L. Frome, Donna L. Cragle

    2005-08-31

    Although age is recognized as the strongest predictor of mortality in chronic disease epidemiology, a calendar-based approach is often employed when evaluating time-related variables. An age-based analysis file, created by determining the value of each time-dependent variable for each age that a cohort member is followed, provides a clear definition of age at exposure and allows development of diverse analytic models. To demonstrate methods, the relationship between cancer mortality and external radiation was analyzed with Poisson regression for 14,095 Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. Based on previous analysis of this cohort, a model with ten-year lagged cumulative radiation doses partitionedmore » by receipt before (dose-young) or after (dose-old) age 45 was examined. Dose-response estimates were similar to calendar-year-based results with elevated risk for dose-old, but not when film badge readings were weekly before 1957. Complementary results showed increasing risk with older hire ages and earlier birth cohorts, since workers hired after age 45 were born before 1915, and dose-young and dose-old were distributed differently by birth cohorts. Risks were generally higher for smokingrelated than non-smoking-related cancers. It was difficult to single out specific variables associated with elevated cancer mortality because of: (1) birth cohort differences in hire age and mortality experience completeness, and (2) time-period differences in working conditions, dose potential, and exposure assessment. This research demonstrated the utility and versatility of the age-based approach.« less

  5. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    DOE PAGES

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh; ...

    2013-10-15

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is

  6. A Bayesian Modeling Approach for Estimation of a Shape-Free Groundwater Age Distribution using Multiple Tracers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Massoudieh, Arash; Visser, Ate; Sharifi, Soroosh

    The mixing of groundwaters with different ages in aquifers, groundwater age is more appropriately represented by a distribution rather than a scalar number. To infer a groundwater age distribution from environmental tracers, a mathematical form is often assumed for the shape of the distribution and the parameters of the mathematical distribution are estimated using deterministic or stochastic inverse methods. We found that the prescription of the mathematical form limits the exploration of the age distribution to the shapes that can be described by the selected distribution. In this paper, the use of freeform histograms as groundwater age distributions is evaluated.more » A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the fraction of groundwater in each histogram bin. This method was able to capture the shape of a hypothetical gamma distribution from the concentrations of four age tracers. The number of bins that can be considered in this approach is limited based on the number of tracers available. The histogram method was also tested on tracer data sets from Holten (The Netherlands; 3H, 3He, 85Kr, 39Ar) and the La Selva Biological Station (Costa-Rica; SF 6, CFCs, 3H, 4He and 14C), and compared to a number of mathematical forms. According to standard Bayesian measures of model goodness, the best mathematical distribution performs better than the histogram distributions in terms of the ability to capture the observed tracer data relative to their complexity. Among the histogram distributions, the four bin histogram performs better in most of the cases. The Monte Carlo simulations showed strong correlations in the posterior estimates of bin contributions, indicating that these bins cannot be well constrained using the available age tracers. The fact that mathematical forms overall perform better than the freeform histogram does not undermine the benefit of the freeform approach, especially for the cases where a larger amount of observed data is

  7. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gardner, W. P.

    2017-12-01

    A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

  8. Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

    2015-01-01

    Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

  9. Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population.

    PubMed

    Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Caldas, Inês-Morais; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

    2014-12-01

    The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament.

  10. Age estimation in 25-45 yrs. old females by physical and radiological methods

    PubMed Central

    Kasat, Vikrant; Karjodkar, FR; Vaz, Walter

    2010-01-01

    Aim: The purpose of this study was to estimate the age in living females in the later years (25 to 45 years) from general physical features and radiographic changes in the sternum and the mandible. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 64 females (32 subjects in each study and control group). All the subjects were physically examined for graying of scalp, body, pubic hair, and for wrinkling of skin of the forehead, temporal region, and below the eyes. A right lateral view of the chest was taken to determine fusion of the components of the sternum. Combined Hair Score, Combined Skin Score, and Combined Bone Fusion Score were calculated. An orthopantomogram of each patient was traced for lower jaw, mandibular canal and teeth, and D1, D2, A values were calculated. SPSS Software Version 10.1 was used for the execution of the regression command on the 32 cases of the control group, whose ages were known. Results: Combined skin score, mandible right D2, mandible right angle, and mandible left angle turned out significant in the prediction of age. Using the regression equation obtained, the age of the 32 subjects in the study group was estimated. In 9.3% of cases, the predicted ages exactly matched the actual ages. A variation of 1–4 years was seen in 75% of the cases. A variation of 6–7 years was seen in 15.6% of the cases. Conclusion: This study succeeded in most instances in predicting the ages of the study group and in arriving at a formula for age estimation between the ages of 25 and 45 years without using any invasive, costly, time - consuming, or troublesome method. PMID:21731347

  11. Strategies for estimating the water budget at different scales using the JGrass-NewAGE system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bancheri, M.; Rigon, R.; Serafin, F.; Abera, W.; Bottazzi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recently we presented two papers one dedicated to the estimation of the water budget components in a small, basin, the Posina catchment [Abera et al., 2017], and the other in a large basin, the Blue Nile [Abera et al., 2017b]. At the smallest scale the ground measurements available do not guarantee the closure of the budget without making additional hypothesis. The large scale case, instead, was largely supported by remote sensing data either for calibration and/or validation. This contribution explains how we actually did it, clarifies some aspects of the informatics and openly discusses the issues risen in our work. We also consider varying configuration of the water budget schemes at the subbasin level, and how this affects the estimates.Finally we analyse the problem of travel times [Rigon et al., 2016a, Rigon et al, 2016b] as it comes out from considering the multiple fluxes and storages. All considerations and simulations are based on the JGrass-NewAGE system [Formetta et al., 2014] and its evolution (Bancheri [2017]).ReferencesAbera, W., Formetta, G., Borga, M., & Rigon, R. (2017a). Estimating the water budget components and their variability in a pre-alpine basin with JGrass-NewAGE. Advances in Water Resources, http://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.03.010Abera, W., Formetta, G., Brocca, L., & Rigon, R. (2017b). Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. http://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017Bancheri, M., A travel time model for water budget of complex catchments, ph.D Thesis, 2017Formetta, G., Antonello, A., Franceschi, S., David, O., & Rigon, R. (2014). Hydrological modelling with components: A GIS-based open-source framework. Environmental Modelling and Software,. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.019Rigon, R., Bancheri, M., Formetta, G., & de Lavenne, A. (2016). The geomorphological unit hydrograph from a historical-critical perspective

  12. Comparison of two viewing methods for estimating largemouth bass and walleye ages from sectioned otoliths and dorsal spines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wegleitner, Eric J.; Isermann, Daniel A.

    2017-01-01

    Many biologists use digital images for estimating ages of fish, but the use of images could lead to differences in age estimates and precision because image capture can produce changes in light and clarity compared to directly viewing structures through a microscope. We used sectioned sagittal otoliths from 132 Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and sectioned dorsal spines and otoliths from 157 Walleyes Sander vitreus to determine whether age estimates and among‐reader precision were similar when annuli were enumerated directly through a microscope or from digital images. Agreement of ages between viewing methods for three readers were highest for Largemouth Bass otoliths (75–89% among readers), followed by Walleye otoliths (63–70%) and Walleye dorsal spines (47–64%). Most discrepancies (72–96%) were ±1 year, and differences were more prevalent for age‐5 and older fish. With few exceptions, mean ages estimated from digital images were similar to ages estimated via directly viewing the structures through the microscope, and among‐reader precision did not vary between viewing methods for each structure. However, the number of disagreements we observed suggests that biologists should assess potential differences in age structure that could arise if images of calcified structures are used in the age estimation process.

  13. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  14. View Estimation Based on Value System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yasutake; Shimada, Kouki; Asada, Minoru

    Estimation of a caregiver's view is one of the most important capabilities for a child to understand the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver, that is, to infer the intention of behavior and/or to learn the observed behavior efficiently. We hypothesize that the child develops this ability in the same way as behavior learning motivated by an intrinsic reward, that is, he/she updates the model of the estimated view of his/her own during the behavior imitated from the observation of the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver based on minimizing the estimation error of the reward during the behavior. From this view, this paper shows a method for acquiring such a capability based on a value system from which values can be obtained by reinforcement learning. The parameters of the view estimation are updated based on the temporal difference error (hereafter TD error: estimation error of the state value), analogous to the way such that the parameters of the state value of the behavior are updated based on the TD error. Experiments with simple humanoid robots show the validity of the method, and the developmental process parallel to young children's estimation of its own view during the imitation of the observed behavior of the caregiver is discussed.

  15. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  16. Radiocarbon Dating of an Olive Tree Cross-Section: New Insights on Growth Patterns and Implications for Age Estimation of Olive Trees.

    PubMed

    Ehrlich, Yael; Regev, Lior; Kerem, Zohar; Boaretto, Elisabetta

    2017-01-01

    The age of living massive olive trees is often assumed to be between hundreds and even thousands of years. These estimations are usually based on the girth of the trunk and an extrapolation based on a theoretical annual growth rate. It is difficult to objectively verify these claims, as a monumental tree may not be cut down for analysis of its cross-section. In addition, the inner and oldest part of the trunk in olive trees usually rots, precluding the possibility of carting out radiocarbon analysis of material from the first years of life of the tree. In this work we present a cross-section of an olive tree, previously estimated to be hundreds of years old, which was cut down post-mortem in 2013. The cross-section was radiocarbon dated at numerous points following the natural growth pattern, which was made possible to observe by viewing the entire cross-section. Annual growth rate values were calculated and compared between different radii. The cross-section also revealed a nearly independent segment of growth, which would clearly offset any estimations based solely on girth calculations. Multiple piths were identified, indicating the beginning of branching within the trunk. Different radii were found to have comparable growth rates, resulting in similar estimates dating the piths to the 19th century. The estimated age of the piths represent a terminus ante quem for the age of the tree, as these are piths of separate branches. However, the tree is likely not many years older than the dated piths, and certainly not centuries older. The oldest radiocarbon-datable material in this cross-section was less than 200 years old, which is in agreement with most other radiocarbon dates of internal wood from living olive trees, rarely older than 300 years.

  17. New, national bottom-up estimate for tree-based biological ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient in many ecosystems, but is also a chief pollutant from human activity. Quantifying human impacts on the nitrogen cycle and investigating natural ecosystem nitrogen cycling both require an understanding of the magnitude of nitrogen inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). A bottom-up approach to estimating BNF—scaling rates up from measurements to broader scales—is attractive because it is rooted in actual BNF measurements. However, bottom-up approaches have been hindered by scaling difficulties, and a recent top-down approach suggested that the previous bottom-up estimate was much too large. Here, we used a bottom-up approach for tree-based BNF, overcoming scaling difficulties with the systematic, immense (>70,000 N-fixing trees) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. We employed two approaches to estimate species-specific BNF rates: published ecosystem-scale rates (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and published estimates of the percent of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) combined with FIA-derived growth rates. Species-specific rates can vary for a variety of reasons, so for each approach we examined how different assumptions influenced our results. Specifically, we allowed BNF rates to vary with stand age, N-fixer density, and canopy position (since N-fixation is known to require substantial light).Our estimates from this bottom-up technique are several orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates indicating

  18. A multicenter prospective hospital-based surveillance to estimate the burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children less than five years of age in India.

    PubMed

    Saluja, T; Sharma, S D; Gupta, M; Kundu, R; Kar, S; Dutta, A; Silveira, M; Singh, J V; Kamath, V G; Chaudhary, A; Rao, J V; Ravi, M D; Murthy, S R K; Babji, S; Prasad, R; Gujjula, R; Rao, R; Dhingra, M S

    2014-08-11

    Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe, dehydrating diarrhea in children aged <5 years globally, with an estimated 25 million outpatient visits and 2 million hospitalizations attributable to rotavirus infections each year. The aim of this hospital-based surveillance was to summarize the local epidemiological and virological features of rotavirus and to estimate the disease burden in the population under surveillance in India. During the 16 months surveillance period from April 2011 through July 2012, a total of 4711 children under the age of 5 years were admitted with acute diarrhea at 12 medical centers attached to medical schools throughout India. Stool samples were randomly collected from 2051 (43.5%) subjects and were analyzed for rotavirus positivity using commercial enzyme immunoassay kit (Premier Rotaclone Qualitative Elisa) at the respective study centers. Rotavirus positive samples were genotyped for VP7 and VP4 by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) at a central laboratory. During the study period, maximum number of rotavirus related hospitalizations were reported from December 2011 through February 2012. Out of the 2051 stool samples tested for rotavirus, overall 541 (26.4%) samples were positive for rotavirus VP6 antigen in stool. The highest positivity was observed in the month of December, 2011 (52.5%) and lowest in the month of May, 2011 (10.3%). We found that majority of the rotavirus positive cases (69.7%) were in children <24 months of age. The most common genotypes reported were G1 (38%), G2 (18%), G9 (18%), G12 (9%) and mixed strains (17%). The results of this study confirm the significant burden of acute rotavirus gastroenteritis as a cause of hospitalizations in under five children in India. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X -Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  20. Serum 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin levels and their association with age, body mass index, smoking, military record-based variables, and estimated exposure to Agent Orange in Korean Vietnam veterans.

    PubMed

    Yi, Sang-Wook; Ohrr, Heechoul; Won, Jong-Uk; Song, Jae-Seok; Hong, Jae-Seok

    2013-09-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the levels of serum 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and evaluate their association with age, body mass index, smoking, military record-based variables, and estimated exposure to Agent Orange in Korean Vietnam veterans. Serum levels of TCDD were analyzed in 102 Vietnam veterans. Information on age, body mass index, and smoking status were obtained from a self-reported questionnaire. The perceived exposure was assessed by a 6-item questionnaire. Two proximity-based exposures were constructed by division/brigade level and battalion/company level unit information using the Stellman exposure opportunity index model. The mean and median of serum TCDD levels was 1.2 parts per trillion (ppt) and 0.9 ppt, respectively. Only 2 Vietnam veterans had elevated levels of TCDD (>10 ppt). The levels of TCDD did not tend to increase with the likelihood of exposure to Agent Orange, as estimated from either proximity-based exposure or perceived self-reported exposure. The serum TCDD levels were not significantly different according to military unit, year of first deployment, duration of deployment, military rank, age, body mass index, and smoking status. The average serum TCDD levels in the Korean Vietnam veterans were lower than those reported for other occupationally or environmentally exposed groups and US Vietnam veterans, and their use as an objective marker of Agent Orange exposure may have some limitations. The unit of deployment, duration of deployment, year of first deployment, military rank, perceived self-reported exposure, and proximity-based exposure to Agent Orange were not associated with TCDD levels in Korean Vietnam veterans. Age, body mass index and smoking also were not associated with TCDD levels.

  1. Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanford, W. E.

    2015-12-01

    Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially

  2. Content-based image retrieval applied to bone age assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Benedikt; Brosig, André; Welter, Petra; Grouls, Christoph; Günther, Rolf W.; Deserno, Thomas M.

    2010-03-01

    Radiological bone age assessment is based on local image regions of interest (ROI), such as the epiphysis or the area of carpal bones. These are compared to a standardized reference and scores determining the skeletal maturity are calculated. For computer-aided diagnosis, automatic ROI extraction and analysis is done so far mainly by heuristic approaches. Due to high variations in the imaged biological material and differences in age, gender and ethnic origin, automatic analysis is difficult and frequently requires manual interactions. On the contrary, epiphyseal regions (eROIs) can be compared to previous cases with known age by content-based image retrieval (CBIR). This requires a sufficient number of cases with reliable positioning of the eROI centers. In this first approach to bone age assessment by CBIR, we conduct leaving-oneout experiments on 1,102 left hand radiographs and 15,428 metacarpal and phalangeal eROIs from the USC hand atlas. The similarity of the eROIs is assessed by cross-correlation of 16x16 scaled eROIs. The effects of the number of eROIs, two age computation methods as well as the number of considered CBIR references are analyzed. The best results yield an error rate of 1.16 years and a standard deviation of 0.85 years. As the appearance of the hand varies naturally by up to two years, these results clearly demonstrate the applicability of the CBIR approach for bone age estimation.

  3. Modeling Fetal Weight for Gestational Age: A Comparison of a Flexible Multi-level Spline-based Model with Other Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Villandré, Luc; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Perez Trejo, Maria Esther; Abenhaim, Haim; Jacobsen, Geir; Platt, Robert W

    2011-01-01

    We present a model for longitudinal measures of fetal weight as a function of gestational age. We use a linear mixed model, with a Box-Cox transformation of fetal weight values, and restricted cubic splines, in order to flexibly but parsimoniously model median fetal weight. We systematically compare our model to other proposed approaches. All proposed methods are shown to yield similar median estimates, as evidenced by overlapping pointwise confidence bands, except after 40 completed weeks, where our method seems to produce estimates more consistent with observed data. Sex-based stratification affects the estimates of the random effects variance-covariance structure, without significantly changing sex-specific fitted median values. We illustrate the benefits of including sex-gestational age interaction terms in the model over stratification. The comparison leads to the conclusion that the selection of a model for fetal weight for gestational age can be based on the specific goals and configuration of a given study without affecting the precision or value of median estimates for most gestational ages of interest. PMID:21931571

  4. The Ages of A-Stars. I. Interferometric Observations and Age Estimates for Stars in the Ursa Major Moving Group

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Jeremy; White, R. J.; Boyajian, T.; Schaefer, G.; Baines, E.; Ireland, M.; Patience, J.; ten Brummelaar, T.; McAlister, H.; Ridgway, S. T.; Sturmann, J.; Sturmann, L.; Turner, N.; Farrington, C.; Goldfinger, P. J.

    2015-11-01

    We have observed and spatially resolved a set of seven A-type stars in the nearby Ursa Major moving group with the Classic, CLIMB, and PAVO beam combiners on the Center for High Angular Resolution Astronomy Array. At least four of these stars have large rotational velocities (v{sin}i ≳ 170 {km} {{{s}}}-1) and are expected to be oblate. These interferometric measurements, the stars’ observed photometric energy distributions, and v{sin}i values are used to computationally construct model oblate stars from which stellar properties (inclination, rotational velocity, and the radius and effective temperature as a function of latitude, etc.) are determined. The results are compared with MESA stellar evolution models to determine masses and ages. The value of this new technique is that it enables the estimation of the fundamental properties of rapidly rotating stars without the need to fully image the star. It can thus be applied to stars with sizes comparable to the interferometric resolution limit as opposed to those that are several times larger than the limit. Under the assumption of coevality, the spread in ages can be used as a test of both the prescription presented here and the MESA evolutionary code for rapidly rotating stars. With our validated technique, we combine these age estimates and determine the age of the moving group to be 414 ± 23 Myr, which is consistent with, but much more precise than previous estimates.

  5. In vivo estimation of normal amygdala volume from structural MRI scans with anatomical-based segmentation.

    PubMed

    Siozopoulos, Achilleas; Thomaidis, Vasilios; Prassopoulos, Panos; Fiska, Aliki

    2018-02-01

    Literature includes a number of studies using structural MRI (sMRI) to determine the volume of the amygdala, which is modified in various pathologic conditions. The reported values vary widely mainly because of different anatomical approaches to the complex. This study aims at estimating of the normal amygdala volume from sMRI scans using a recent anatomical definition described in a study based on post-mortem material. The amygdala volume has been calculated in 106 healthy subjects, using sMRI and anatomical-based segmentation. The resulting volumes have been analyzed for differences related to hemisphere, sex, and age. The mean amygdalar volume was estimated at 1.42 cm 3 . The mean right amygdala volume has been found larger than the left, but the difference for the raw values was within the limits of the method error. No intersexual differences or age-related alterations have been observed. The study provides a method for determining the boundaries of the amygdala in sMRI scans based on recent anatomical considerations and an estimation of the mean normal amygdala volume from a quite large number of scans for future use in comparative studies.

  6. Determining 'age at death' for forensic purposes using human bone by a laboratory-based biomechanical analytical method.

    PubMed

    Zioupos, P; Williams, A; Christodoulou, G; Giles, R

    2014-05-01

    Determination of age-at-death (AAD) is an important and frequent requirement in contemporary forensic science and in the reconstruction of past populations and societies from their remains. Its estimation is relatively straightforward and accurate (±3yr) for immature skeletons by using morphological features and reference tables within the context of forensic anthropology. However, after skeletal maturity (>35yr) estimates become inaccurate, particularly in the legal context. In line with the general migration of all the forensic sciences from reliance upon empirical criteria to those which are more evidence-based, AAD determination should rely more-and-more upon more quantitative methods. We explore here whether well-known changes in the biomechanical properties of bone and the properties of bone matrix, which have been seen to change with age even after skeletal maturity in a traceable manner, can be used to provide a reliable estimate of AAD. This method charts a combination of physical characteristics some of which are measured at a macroscopic level (wet & dry apparent density, porosity, organic/mineral/water fractions, collagen thermal degradation properties, ash content) and others at the microscopic level (Ca/P ratios, osteonal and matrix microhardness, image analysis of sections). This method produced successful age estimates on a cohort of 12 donors of age 53-85yr (7 male, 5 female), where the age of the individual could be approximated within less than ±1yr. This represents a vastly improved level of accuracy than currently extant age estimation techniques. It also presents: (1) a greater level of reliability and objectivity as the results are not dependent on the experience and expertise of the observer, as is so often the case in forensic skeletal age estimation methods; (2) it is purely laboratory-based analytical technique which can be carried out by someone with technical skills and not the specialised forensic anthropology experience; (3) it can

  7. Age ratios as estimators of productivity: testing assumptions on a threatened seabird, the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus)

    Treesearch

    M. Zachariah Peery; Benjamin H. Becker; Steven R. Beissinger

    2007-01-01

    The ratio of hatch-year (HY) to after-hatch-year (AHY) individuals (HY:AHY ratio) can be a valuable metric for estimating avian productivity because it does not require monitoring individual breeding sites and can often be estimated across large geographic and temporal scales. However, rigorous estimation of age ratios requires that both young and adult age classes are...

  8. Racemization of aspartic acid in root dentin as a tool for age estimation in a Kuwaiti population.

    PubMed

    Elfawal, Mohamed Amin; Alqattan, Sahib Issa; Ghallab, Noha Ayman

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of age is one of the most significant tasks in forensic practice. Amino acid racemization is considered one of the most reliable and accurate methods of age estimation and aspartic acid shows a high racemization reaction rate. The present study has investigated the application of aspartic acid racemization in age estimation in a Kuwaiti population using root dentin from a total of 89 upper first premolar teeth. The D/L ratio of aspartic acid was obtained by HPLC technique in a test group of 50 subjects and a linear regression line was established between aspartic acid racemization and age. The correlation coefficient (r) was 0.97, and the standard error of estimation was ±1.26 years. The racemization age "t" of each subject was calculated by applying the following formula: ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] = 0.003181 t + (-0.01591). When the proposed formula "estimated age t = ln [(1 + D/L)/(1 - D/L)] + 0.01591/0.003181" was applied to a validation group of 39 subjects, the range of error was less than one year in 82.1% of the cases and the standard error of estimation was ±1.12. The current work has established a reasonably significant correlation of the D-/L-aspartic acid ratio with age, and proposed an apparently reliable formula for calculating the age in Kuwaiti populations through aspartic acid racemization. Further research is required to find out whether similar findings are applicable to other ethnic populations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  9. Estimates of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to population-based mammography screening in South Australia after adjustment for lead time effects.

    PubMed

    Beckmann, Kerri; Duffy, Stephen W; Lynch, John; Hiller, Janet; Farshid, Gelareh; Roder, David

    2015-09-01

    To estimate over-diagnosis due to population-based mammography screening using a lead time adjustment approach, with lead time measures based on symptomatic cancers only. Women aged 40-84 in 1989-2009 in South Australia eligible for mammography screening. Numbers of observed and expected breast cancer cases were compared, after adjustment for lead time. Lead time effects were modelled using age-specific estimates of lead time (derived from interval cancer rates and predicted background incidence, using maximum likelihood methods) and screening sensitivity, projected background breast cancer incidence rates (in the absence of screening), and proportions screened, by age and calendar year. Lead time estimates were 12, 26, 43 and 53 months, for women aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 respectively. Background incidence rates were estimated to have increased by 0.9% and 1.2% per year for invasive and all breast cancer. Over-diagnosis among women aged 40-84 was estimated at 7.9% (0.1-12.0%) for invasive cases and 12.0% (5.7-15.4%) when including ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS). We estimated 8% over-diagnosis for invasive breast cancer and 12% inclusive of DCIS cancers due to mammography screening among women aged 40-84. These estimates may overstate the extent of over-diagnosis if the increasing prevalence of breast cancer risk factors has led to higher background incidence than projected. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Estimated prevalence of dementia based on analysis of drug databases in the Region of Madrid (Spain).

    PubMed

    de Hoyos-Alonso, M C; Bonis, J; Tapias-Merino, E; Castell, M V; Otero, A

    2016-01-01

    The progressive rise in dementia prevalence increases the need for rapid methods that complement population-based prevalence studies. To estimate the prevalence of dementia in the population aged 65 and older based on use of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine. Descriptive study of use and prescription of cholinesterase inhibitors and/or memantine in 2011 according to 2 databases: Farm@drid (pharmacy billing records for the Region of Madrid) and BIFAP (database for pharmacoepidemiology research in primary care, with diagnosis and prescription records). We tested the comparability of drug use results from each database using the chi-square test and prevalence ratios. The prevalence of dementia in Madrid was estimated based on the dose per 100 inhabitants/day, adjusting the result for data obtained from BIFAP on combination treatment in the general population (0.37%) and the percentage of dementia patients undergoing treatment (41.13%). Cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine were taken by 2.08% and 0.72% of Madrid residents aged 65 and older was respectively. Both databases displayed similar results for use of these drugs. The estimated prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 and older is 5.91% (95% CI%, 5.85-5.95) (52 287 people), and it is higher in women (7.16%) than in men (4.00%). The estimated prevalence of dementia is similar to that found in population-based studies. Analysing consumption of specific dementia drugs can be a reliable and inexpensive means of updating prevalence data periodically and helping rationalise healthcare resources. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age--Brazilian indices.

    PubMed

    de Oliveira, Fernando Toledo; Capelozza, Ana Lúcia Álvares; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; de Bullen, Izabel Regina Fischer Rubira

    2012-06-10

    Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation for age estimation in children of South Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Kalyan, V. Siva; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Vegesna, Goutham Chakravarthy; Chirla, Anil; Varma, D. Maruthi

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Determining the age of a person in the absence of documentary evidence of birth is essential for legal and medico-legal purpose. Fishman method of skeletal maturation is widely used for this purpose; however, the reliability of this method for people with all geographic locations is not well-established. Aims and Objectives: In this study, we assessed various stages of carpal and metacarpal bone maturation and tested the reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation to estimate the age in South Indian population. We also evaluated the correlation between the chronological age (CA) and predicted age based on the Fishman method of skeletal maturation. Materials and Methods: Digital right hand-wrist radiographs of 330 individuals aged 9-20 years were obtained and the skeletal maturity stage for each subject was determined using Fishman method. The skeletal maturation indicator scores were obtained and analyzed with reference to CA and sex. Data was analyzed using the SPSS software package (version 12, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results: The study subjects had a tendency toward late maturation with the mean skeletal age (SA) estimated being significantly lowers (P < 0.05) than the mean CA at various skeletal maturity stages. Nevertheless, significant correlation was observed in this study between SA and CA for males (r = 0.82) and females (r = 0.85). Interestingly, female subjects were observed to be advanced in SA compared with males. Conclusion: Fishman method of skeletal maturation can be used as an alternative tool for the assessment of mean age of an individual of unknown CA in South Indian children. PMID:25097402

  13. The reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation for age estimation in children of South Indian population.

    PubMed

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Kalyan, V Siva; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Vegesna, Goutham Chakravarthy; Chirla, Anil; Varma, D Maruthi

    2014-07-01

    Determining the age of a person in the absence of documentary evidence of birth is essential for legal and medico-legal purpose. Fishman method of skeletal maturation is widely used for this purpose; however, the reliability of this method for people with all geographic locations is not well-established. In this study, we assessed various stages of carpal and metacarpal bone maturation and tested the reliability of Fishman method of skeletal maturation to estimate the age in South Indian population. We also evaluated the correlation between the chronological age (CA) and predicted age based on the Fishman method of skeletal maturation. Digital right hand-wrist radiographs of 330 individuals aged 9-20 years were obtained and the skeletal maturity stage for each subject was determined using Fishman method. The skeletal maturation indicator scores were obtained and analyzed with reference to CA and sex. Data was analyzed using the SPSS software package (version 12, SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The study subjects had a tendency toward late maturation with the mean skeletal age (SA) estimated being significantly lowers (P < 0.05) than the mean CA at various skeletal maturity stages. Nevertheless, significant correlation was observed in this study between SA and CA for males (r = 0.82) and females (r = 0.85). Interestingly, female subjects were observed to be advanced in SA compared with males. Fishman method of skeletal maturation can be used as an alternative tool for the assessment of mean age of an individual of unknown CA in South Indian children.

  14. Digitized morphometric analysis of dental pulp of permanent mandibular second molar for age estimation of Davangere population.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Nerella Narendra; Panchaksharappa, Mamatha Gowda; Annigeri, Rajeshwari G

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the present study is to estimate the age of Davangere population by evaluating the pulp to tooth area ratio (PTR) by using digitized intraoral periapical radiographs of permanent mandibular second molar. 400 intraoral periapical radiograph (IOPA) of permanent mandibular 2nd molar of both the sexes aged 14-60 years were used. Digital camera was used to image the radiographs. Images were computed and PTR was calculated by AUTOCAD software. Intra and Inter observer variability was also assessed. Regression analysis was used to estimate the age of an individual by taking PTR as dependent variable. The mean PTR of males and females was 0.10 ± 0.02 and 0.09 ± 0.02 respectively. Negative correlation was observed, when age was compared with PTR {r = -0.441, -0.406 & -0.419 among males, females and total subjects (p < 0.001)}. Regression analysis showed a Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) of 12 years. The Kappa coefficient value for the intra and inter examiner variability was 0.85 & 0.83 respectively. Our results showed that permanent mandibular 2(nd) molar can be taken as an index tooth for estimating the age of the adults using digitized periapical radiograph and AUTOCAD software. Also high differences were observed between estimated and chronological age of 12 years which is not in the acceptable range. But it provides a new window for research in the forensic sciences in estimating the adult age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  15. Correcting anthropogenic ocean heat uptake estimates for the Little Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebbie, Geoffrey

    2017-04-01

    Estimates of anthropogenic ocean heat uptake typically assume that the ocean was in equilibrium during the pre-industrial era. Recent reconstructions of the Common Era, however, show a multi-century surface cooling trend before the Industrial Revolution. Using a time-evolving state estimation method, we find that the 1750 C.E. ocean must have been out of equilibrium in order to fit the H.M.S. Challenger, WOCE, and Argo hydrographic data. When the disequilibrated ocean conditions are taken into account, the inferred ocean heat uptake from 1750-2014 C.E. is revised due to the deep ocean memory of Little Ice Age surface forcing. These effects of ocean disequilibrium should also be considered when interpreting climate sensitivity estimates.

  16. Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method.

    PubMed

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

    2014-09-01

    In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

  17. Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites: National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2006-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shapiro, Stephanie D.; Plummer, Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Widman, Peggy K.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Wayland, Julian E.; Runkle, Donna L.

    2012-01-01

    Piston-flow age dates were interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers from 812 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites from 27 Study Units across the United States. The tracers of interest include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis were collected from 2006 to 2010 from groundwater wells in NAWQA studies, including: * Land-Use Studies (LUS, shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, located in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings), * Major-Aquifer Studies (MAS, wells, usually domestic supply wells, located in principal aquifers and representing the shallow drinking water supply), * Flow System Studies (FSS, networks of clustered wells located along a flowpath extending from a recharge zone to a discharge zone, preferably a shallow stream) associated with Land-Use Studies, and * Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) also associated with Land-Use Studies. Tracer data were evaluated using documented methods and are presented as aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF6), and tracer-based piston-flow ages. Selected ancillary data, such as redox data, well-construction data, and major dissolved-gas (N2, O2, Ar, CH4, and CO2) data, also are presented. Recharge temperature was inferred using climate data (approximated by mean annual air temperature plus 1°C [MAAT +1°C]) as well as major dissolved-gas data (N2-Ar-based) where available. The N2-Ar-based temperatures showed significantly more variation than the climate-based data, as well as the effects of denitrification and degassing resulting from reducing conditions. The N2-Ar-based temperatures were colder than the climate-based temperatures in networks where recharge was limited to the winter months when evapotranspiration was reduced. The tracer-based piston-flow ages

  18. Optimising product advice based on age when design criteria are based on weight: child restraints in vehicles.

    PubMed

    Anderson, R W G; Hutchinson, T P

    2009-03-01

    The motivation for this paper is the high rate of inappropriate child restraint selection in cars that is apparent in published surveys of child restraint use and how the public health messages promoting child restraints might respond. Advice has increasingly been given solely according to the child's weight, while many parents do not know the weight of their children. A common objection to promoting restraint use based on the age of the child is the imprecision of such advice, given the variation in the size of children, but the magnitude of the misclassification such advice would produce has never been estimated. This paper presents a method for estimating the misclassification of children by weight, when advice is posed in terms of age, and applies it to detailed child growth data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Australia, guidelines instructing all parents to promote their children from an infant restraint to a forward-facing child seat at 6 months, and then to a belt-positioning booster at 4 years, would mean that 5% of all children under the age of 6 years would be using a restraint not suited to their weight. Coordination of aged-based advice and the weight ranges chosen for the Australian Standard on child restraints could reduce this level of misclassification to less than 1%. The general method developed may also be applied to other aspects of restraint design that are more directly relevant to good restraint fit.

  19. Measuring Housework Participation: The Gap between "Stylised" Questionnaire Estimates and Diary-Based Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kan, Man Yee

    2008-01-01

    This article compares stylised (questionnaire-based) estimates and diary-based estimates of housework time collected from the same respondents. Data come from the Home On-line Study (1999-2001), a British national household survey that contains both types of estimates (sample size = 632 men and 666 women). It shows that the gap between the two…

  20. Physiological frailty index (PFI): quantitative in-life estimate of individual biological age in mice.

    PubMed

    Antoch, Marina P; Wrobel, Michelle; Kuropatwinski, Karen K; Gitlin, Ilya; Leonova, Katerina I; Toshkov, Ilia; Gleiberman, Anatoli S; Hutson, Alan D; Chernova, Olga B; Gudkov, Andrei V

    2017-03-19

    The development of healthspan-extending pharmaceuticals requires quantitative estimation of age-related progressive physiological decline. In humans, individual health status can be quantitatively assessed by means of a frailty index (FI), a parameter which reflects the scale of accumulation of age-related deficits. However, adaptation of this methodology to animal models is a challenging task since it includes multiple subjective parameters. Here we report a development of a quantitative non-invasive procedure to estimate biological age of an individual animal by creating physiological frailty index (PFI). We demonstrated the dynamics of PFI increase during chronological aging of male and female NIH Swiss mice. We also demonstrated acceleration of growth of PFI in animals placed on a high fat diet, reflecting aging acceleration by obesity and provide a tool for its quantitative assessment. Additionally, we showed that PFI could reveal anti-aging effect of mTOR inhibitor rapatar (bioavailable formulation of rapamycin) prior to registration of its effects on longevity. PFI revealed substantial sex-related differences in normal chronological aging and in the efficacy of detrimental (high fat diet) or beneficial (rapatar) aging modulatory factors. Together, these data introduce PFI as a reliable, non-invasive, quantitative tool suitable for testing potential anti-aging pharmaceuticals in pre-clinical studies.

  1. Age, year‐class strength variability, and partial age validation of Kiyis from Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lepak, Taylor A.; Ogle, Derek H.; Vinson, Mark

    2017-01-01

    ge estimates of Lake Superior Kiyis Coregonus kiyi from scales and otoliths were compared and 12 years (2003–2014) of length frequency data were examined to assess year‐class strength and validate age estimates. Ages estimated from otoliths were precise and were consistently older than ages estimated from scales. Maximum otolith‐derived ages were 20 years for females and 12 years for males. Age estimates showed high numbers of fish of ages 5, 6, and 11 in 2014, corresponding to the 2009, 2008, and 2003 year‐classes, respectively. Strong 2003 and 2009 year‐classes, along with the 2005 year‐class, were also evident based on distinct modes of age‐1 fish (<110 mm) in the length frequency distributions from 2004, 2010, and 2006, respectively. Modes from these year‐classes were present as progressively larger fish in subsequent years. Few to no age‐1 fish (<110 mm) were present in all other years. Ages estimated from otoliths were generally within 1 year of the ages corresponding to strong year‐classes, at least for age‐5 and older fish, suggesting that Kiyi age may be reliably estimated to within 1 year by careful examination of thin‐sectioned otoliths.

  2. Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

    PubMed

    Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-05-08

    We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

  3. The role of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry in estimating the chronological age of living individuals in Hamburg, Germany.

    PubMed

    Mansour, Hussam; Fuhrmann, Andreas; Paradowski, Ioana; van Well, Eilin Jopp; Püschel, Klaus

    2017-03-01

    Age estimation represents one of the primary responsibilities of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry. It is an integral procedure aiming to estimate the chronological age of an individual, whose age is either unknown or doubtful, by means of assessing the stage of dental, skeletal, and physical development. The present publication reviews the methods and procedures used in estimating the age of young living individuals as well as the experiences of the Institute of Legal Medicine in Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany, during the last 25 years. From 1990 to 2015, 4223 age estimations were carried out in Hamburg. During this time, forensic age estimation was requested by different concerned authorities including courts, the foreigners' registration office (Zentrale Ausländerbehörde), and the state office of education and consultation (Landesbetrieb Erziehung und Beratung). In the context of judicial proceedings, orthopantomograms, as well as X-ray examinations of both the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses were carried out in accordance with AGFAD recommendations. For investigations not associated with judicial proceedings, orthopantomogram examinations play a key role in the process of age estimation, due to their high diagnostic value and low radiation exposure. Since 2009, mainly unaccompanied young refugees were examined for age estimation. Orthopantomograms and clinical-physical examinations have been used as essential steps in this context to determine whether an individual is 18 years or less. Additional X-ray examinations of the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses have been used less frequently.

  4. Entropy-based adaptive attitude estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiani, Maryam; Barzegar, Aylin; Pourtakdoust, Seid H.

    2018-03-01

    Gaussian approximation filters have increasingly been developed to enhance the accuracy of attitude estimation in space missions. The effective employment of these algorithms demands accurate knowledge of system dynamics and measurement models, as well as their noise characteristics, which are usually unavailable or unreliable. An innovation-based adaptive filtering approach has been adopted as a solution to this problem; however, it exhibits two major challenges, namely appropriate window size selection and guaranteed assurance of positive definiteness for the estimated noise covariance matrices. The current work presents two novel techniques based on relative entropy and confidence level concepts in order to address the abovementioned drawbacks. The proposed adaptation techniques are applied to two nonlinear state estimation algorithms of the extended Kalman filter and cubature Kalman filter for attitude estimation of a low earth orbit satellite equipped with three-axis magnetometers and Sun sensors. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptation scheme is demonstrated by means of comprehensive sensitivity analysis on the system and environmental parameters by using extensive independent Monte Carlo simulations.

  5. An automated technique to stage lower third molar development on panoramic radiographs for age estimation: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    De Tobel, J; Radesh, P; Vandermeulen, D; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    Automated methods to evaluate growth of hand and wrist bones on radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging have been developed. They can be applied to estimate age in children and subadults. Automated methods require the software to (1) recognise the region of interest in the image(s), (2) evaluate the degree of development and (3) correlate this to the age of the subject based on a reference population. For age estimation based on third molars an automated method for step (1) has been presented for 3D magnetic resonance imaging and is currently being optimised (Unterpirker et al. 2015). To develop an automated method for step (2) based on lower third molars on panoramic radiographs. A modified Demirjian staging technique including ten developmental stages was developed. Twenty panoramic radiographs per stage per gender were retrospectively selected for FDI element 38. Two observers decided in consensus about the stages. When necessary, a third observer acted as a referee to establish the reference stage for the considered third molar. This set of radiographs was used as training data for machine learning algorithms for automated staging. First, image contrast settings were optimised to evaluate the third molar of interest and a rectangular bounding box was placed around it in a standardised way using Adobe Photoshop CC 2017 software. This bounding box indicated the region of interest for the next step. Second, several machine learning algorithms available in MATLAB R2017a software were applied for automated stage recognition. Third, the classification performance was evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation scenario, using different validation metrics (accuracy, Rank-N recognition rate, mean absolute difference, linear kappa coefficient). Transfer Learning as a type of Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Network approach outperformed all other tested approaches. Mean accuracy equalled 0.51, mean absolute difference was 0.6 stages and mean linearly weighted kappa was

  6. Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V.; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Conclusion: Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended. PMID:25177143

  7. Dental age estimation in the living after completion of third molar mineralization: new data for Gustafson's criteria.

    PubMed

    Timme, M; Timme, W H; Olze, A; Ottow, C; Ribbecke, S; Pfeiffer, H; Dettmeyer, R; Schmeling, A

    2017-03-01

    There is a need for dental age estimation methods after completion of the third molar mineralization. Degenerative dental characteristics appear to be suitable for forensic age diagnostics beyond the 18th year of life. In 2012, Olze et al. investigated the criteria studied by Gustafson using orthopantomograms. The objective of this study was to prove the applicability and reliability of this method with a large cohort and a wide age range, including older individuals. For this purpose, 2346 orthopantomograms of 1167 female and 1179 male Germans aged 15 to 70 years were reviewed. The characteristics of secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition were evaluated in all the mandibular premolars. The correlation of the individual characteristics with the chronological age was examined by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, in which the chronological age formed the dependent variable. Following those results, R 2 values amounted to 0.73 to 0.8; the standard error of estimate was 6.8 to 8.2 years. Fundamentally, the recommendation for conducting age estimations in the living by these methods can be shared. The values for the quality of the regression are, however, not precise enough for a reliable age estimation around regular retirement date ages. More precise regression formulae for the age group of 15 to 40 years of life are separately presented in this study. Further research should investigate the influence of ethnicity, dietary habits and modern health care on the degenerative characteristics in question.

  8. Age estimation using pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary canines-A digital image analysis.

    PubMed

    Juneja, Manjushree; Devi, Yashoda B K; Rakesh, N; Juneja, Saurabh

    2014-09-01

    Determination of age of a subject is one of the most important aspects of medico-legal cases and anthropological research. Radiographs can be used to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition which is depicted by reduction in the pulp area. In this study, 200 patients of Karnataka aged between 18-72 years were selected for the study. Panoramic radiographs were made and indirectly digitized. Radiographic images of maxillary canines (RIC) were processed using a computer-aided drafting program (ImageJ). The variables pulp/root length (p), pulp/tooth length (r), pulp/root width at enamel-cementum junction (ECJ) level (a), pulp/root width at mid-root level (c), pulp/root width at midpoint level between ECJ level and mid-root level (b) and pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) were recorded. All the morphological variables including gender were statistically analyzed to derive regression equation for estimation of age. It was observed that 2 variables 'AR' and 'b' contributed significantly to the fit and were included in the regression model, yielding the formula: Age = 87.305-480.455(AR)+48.108(b). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation with selected variables explained 96% of total variance with the median of the residuals of 0.1614 years and standard error of estimate of 3.0186 years. There is significant correlation between age and morphological variables 'AR' and 'b' and the derived population specific regression equation can be potentially used for estimation of chronological age of individuals of Karnataka origin.

  9. Estimating liver cancer deaths in Thailand based on verbal autopsy study.

    PubMed

    Waeto, Salwa; Pipatjaturon, Nattakit; Tongkumchum, Phattrawan; Choonpradub, Chamnein; Saelim, Rattikan; Makaje, Nifatamah

    2014-01-01

    Liver cancer mortality is high in Thailand but utility of related vital statistics is limited due to national vital registration (VR) data being under reported for specific causes of deaths. Accurate methodologies and reliable supplementary data are needed to provide worthy national vital statistics. This study aimed to model liver cancer deaths based on verbal autopsy (VA) study in 2005 to provide more accurate estimates of liver cancer deaths than those reported. The results were used to estimate number of liver cancer deaths during 2000-2009. A verbal autopsy (VA) was carried out in 2005 based on a sample of 9,644 deaths from nine provinces and it provided reliable information on causes of deaths by gender, age group, location of deaths in or outside hospital, and causes of deaths of the VR database. Logistic regression was used to model liver cancer deaths and other variables. The estimated probabilities from the model were applied to liver cancer deaths in the VR database, 2000-2009. Thus, the more accurately VA-estimated numbers of liver cancer deaths were obtained. The model fits the data quite well with sensitivity 0.64. The confidence intervals from statistical model provide the estimates and their precisions. The VA-estimated numbers of liver cancer deaths were higher than the corresponding VR database with inflation factors 1.56 for males and 1.64 for females. The statistical methods used in this study can be applied to available mortality data in developing countries where their national vital registration data are of low quality and supplementary reliable data are available.

  10. Axial cervical vertebrae-based multivariate regression model for the estimation of skeletal-maturation status.

    PubMed

    Yang, Y-M; Lee, J; Kim, Y-I; Cho, B-H; Park, S-B

    2014-08-01

    This study aimed to determine the viability of using axial cervical vertebrae (ACV) as biological indicators of skeletal maturation and to build models that estimate ossification level with improved explanatory power over models based only on chronological age. The study population comprised 74 female and 47 male patients with available hand-wrist radiographs and cone-beam computed tomography images. Generalized Procrustes analysis was used to analyze the shape, size, and form of the ACV regions of interest. The variabilities of these factors were analyzed by principal component analysis. Skeletal maturation was then estimated using a multiple regression model. Separate models were developed for male and female participants. For the female estimation model, the adjusted R(2) explained 84.8% of the variability of the Sempé maturation level (SML), representing a 7.9% increase in SML explanatory power over that using chronological age alone (76.9%). For the male estimation model, the adjusted R(2) was over 90%, representing a 1.7% increase relative to the reference model. The simplest possible ACV morphometric information provided a statistically significant explanation of the portion of skeletal-maturation variability not dependent on chronological age. These results verify that ACV is a strong biological indicator of ossification status. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. On the confounds among retest gains and age-cohort differences in the estimation of within-person change in longitudinal studies: a simulation study.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Lesa; Hofer, Scott M; Sliwinski, Martin J

    2011-12-01

    Although longitudinal designs are the only way in which age changes can be directly observed, a recurrent criticism involves to what extent retest effects may downwardly bias estimates of true age-related cognitive change. Considerable attention has been given to the problem of retest effects within mixed effects models that include separate parameters for longitudinal change over time (usually specified as a function of age) and for the impact of retest (specified as a function of number of exposures). Because time (i.e., intervals between assessment) and number of exposures are highly correlated (and are perfectly correlated in equal interval designs) in most longitudinal studies, the separation of effects of within-person change from effects of retest gains is only possible given certain assumptions (e.g., age convergence). To the extent that cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of age differ, obtained estimates of aging and retest may not be informative. The current simulation study investigated the recovery of within-person change (i.e., aging) and retest effects from repeated cognitive testing as a function of number of waves, age range at baseline, and size and direction of age-cohort differences on the intercept and age slope in age-based models of change. Significant bias and Type I error rates in the estimated effects of retest were observed when these convergence assumptions were not met. These simulation results suggest that retest effects may not be distinguishable from effects of aging-related change and age-cohort differences in typical long-term traditional longitudinal designs.

  12. Precision and accuracy of age estimates obtained from anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines, and sagittal otoliths for known-age largemouth bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klein, Zachary B.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bowen, Bryant R.; Quist, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Sagittal otoliths are the preferred aging structure for Micropterus spp. (black basses) in North America because of the accurate and precise results produced. Typically, fisheries managers are hesitant to use lethal aging techniques (e.g., otoliths) to age rare species, trophy-size fish, or when sampling in small impoundments where populations are small. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the precision and accuracy of 2 non-lethal aging structures (i.e., anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines) in comparison to that of sagittal otoliths from known-age Micropterus salmoides (Largemouth Bass; n = 87) collected from the Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, GA. Sagittal otoliths exhibited the highest concordance with true ages of all structures evaluated (coefficient of variation = 1.2; percent agreement = 91.9). Similarly, the low coefficient of variation (0.0) and high between-reader agreement (100%) indicate that age estimates obtained from sagittal otoliths were the most precise. Relatively high agreement between readers for anal fin spines (84%) and dorsal fin spines (81%) suggested the structures were relatively precise. However, age estimates from anal fin spines and dorsal fin spines exhibited low concordance with true ages. Although use of sagittal otoliths is a lethal technique, this method will likely remain the standard for aging Largemouth Bass and other similar black bass species.

  13. The Demirjian versus the Willems method for dental age estimation in different populations: A meta-analysis of published studies

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Background The accuracy of radiographic methods for dental age estimation is important for biological growth research and forensic applications. Accuracy of the two most commonly used systems (Demirjian and Willems) has been evaluated with conflicting results. This study investigates the accuracies of these methods for dental age estimation in different populations. Methods A search of PubMed, Scopus, Ovid, Database of Open Access Journals and Google Scholar was undertaken. Eligible studies published before December 28, 2016 were reviewed and analyzed. Meta-analysis was performed on 28 published articles using the Demirjian and/or Willems methods to estimate chronological age in 14,109 children (6,581 males, 7,528 females) age 3–18 years in studies using Demirjian’s method and 10,832 children (5,176 males, 5,656 females) age 4–18 years in studies using Willems’ method. The weighted mean difference at 95% confidence interval was used to assess accuracies of the two methods in predicting the chronological age. Results The Demirjian method significantly overestimated chronological age (p<0.05) in males age 3–15 and females age 4–16 when studies were pooled by age cohorts and sex. The majority of studies using Willems’ method did not report significant overestimation of ages in either sex. Overall, Demirjian’s method significantly overestimated chronological age compared to the Willems method (p<0.05). The weighted mean difference for the Demirjian method was 0.62 for males and 0.72 for females, while that of the Willems method was 0.26 for males and 0.29 for females. Conclusion The Willems method provides more accurate estimation of chronological age in different populations, while Demirjian’s method has a broad application in terms of determining maturity scores. However, accuracy of Demirjian age estimations is confounded by population variation when converting maturity scores to dental ages. For highest accuracy of age estimation, population

  14. Predictive Demi-Span Equations for Estimation of Stature in Aged Mexican Americans.

    PubMed

    Siordia, C; Panas, L J; Markides, K

    2012-01-01

    To develop demi-span height predictive equations for older Mexican Americans. Cross-sectional study. Data files housed by the Sociomedical Division in the department of Community Health and Preventive Medicine at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, Texas. 1,078 (700 females, 378 males) Southwest U.S.A. community-dwelling older Mexican Americans, aged 80-102 years. Demi-span, height, weight, BMI, demi-span equivalent height (DSEH), DSEH derived BMI (DS-BMI). Bland and Altman agreement analysis on: height and DSEH; BMI and DS-BMI. Paired t-test comparing derived and actual measures by single-age units and sex. DSEH with Bassey equations (DSEHBassey) are significantly different than actual measures. DSEHBassey derived BMIs (DSBasseyBMIs) are significantly different than BMIs computed from actual measures. DSEH with Mexican equations (DSEHMexican) are not significantly different than real measures. DSEHMexican derived BMIs (DSMexicanBMIs) are not significantly different than real measures. These findings provide evidence that both DSEHBassey and DSBasseyBMIs estimates are significantly different from measured height and BMI. Both DSEHMexican and DSMexicanBMIs estimates are shown to produce similar height and BMI estimates to those obtained from real measures. .

  15. Comparison of gestational age classifications: date of last menstrual period vs. clinical estimate.

    PubMed

    Wingate, Martha S; Alexander, Greg R; Buekens, Pierre; Vahratian, Anjel

    2007-06-01

    The purpose was to compare the two different measures of gestational age currently used on birth certificates (the duration of pregnancy based on the date of last menstrual period [LMP] and the clinical estimate [CE] as related to health status indicators. We contrasted these measures by race/ethnicity. NCHS natality files for 2000-2002 were used, selecting cases of single live birth to U.S. resident mothers with both LMP and CE gestational age information. Approximately 75% of the records had valid LMP and CE values and for approximately one-half of these, the LMP and CE values did not exactly agree. Overall and for each race and ethnic group, the LMP measures resulted in higher proportions of very preterm, preterm, postterm and SGA births. CE value provided preterm rates of 7.9% and for LMP, 9.9%. The odds ratio of preterm birth for African-Americans using the CE measure was 1.78 [95% Cl 1.77-1.79]. The odds ratio using LMP was 1.93 [95% Cl 1.92-1.94]. Whites were the referent population. Different measures of gestational age result in different overall and race-specific rates of very preterm, preterm, postterm, and SGA births. These findings indicate that substituting or combining these measures may have consequences.

  16. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

    PubMed Central

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education. PMID:26624280

  17. Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

    2017-05-01

    Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

  18. Stratigraphy, correlation, and age estimates for fossils from Area 123, Koobi Fora.

    PubMed

    Feibel, Craig S; Lepre, Christopher J; Quinn, Rhonda L

    2009-08-01

    Geological data from the Bura Hasuma region at Koobi Fora provide important constraints for estimating the ages of hominin fossils recovered there, including the cranium KNM-ER 1813. Strata of the upper Burgi, KBS, and Okote members in this part of Koobi Fora reflect three depositional regimes driven by changing paleogeography through time. The upper Burgi and lowermost KBS sequence in the southern Bura Hasuma region accumulated in a lacustrine to delta front setting, with highly localized depositional patterns, limiting the lateral extent of lithostratigraphic markers. Farther north, uppermost upper Burgi through KBS member strata document a fluctuating lake margin, with complex facies patterns. This interval is marked by laterally extensive lithostratigraphic markers, including molluscan packstones, beach sandstones, and stromatolite beds. The uppermost KBS and Okote members show a transition to dominantly fluvial character, with localized and discontinuous accumulation. An age model for the richly fossiliferous Area 123 sequence demonstrates the complexity of terrestrial accumulation patterns. Early lacustrine and delta front accumulation is marked by fairly continuous sedimentation, and high accumulation rates (up to ca. 91 cm/k.yr.). The fluctuating lake margin interval reflects lower sedimentation rates coupled with intervals of exposure, decreasing accumulation significantly (to ca. 13 cm/k.yr.). The capping fluvial interval is marked by significant erosion surfaces, breaks which may drop the overall accumulation rate even lower (ca. 0.3 cm/k.yr.). The data provided here establish a geological framework at odds with a recent proposal of ages considerably younger (by ca. 250 k.yr.) for many of the fossils from Area 123 and elsewhere. Tests of age models demonstrate that the younger ages are not possible. While minor refinements to age estimates for fossils are indicated by improved chronostratigraphic control, in the case of KNM-ER 1813, an age of younger

  19. Estimating onset time from longitudinal and cross-sectional data with an application to estimating gestational age from longitudinal maternal anthropometry during pregnancy and neonatal anthropometry at birth.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Villa, Ana Maria; Grantz, Katherine L; Albert, Paul S

    2018-06-01

    Determining the date of conception is important for estimating gestational age and monitoring whether the fetus and mother are on track in their development and pregnancy. Various methods based on ultrasound have been proposed for dating a pregnancy in high resource countries. However, such techniques may not be available in under-resourced countries. We develop a shared random parameter model for estimating the date of conception using longitudinal assessment of multiple maternal anthropometry and cross-sectional neonatal anthropometry. The methodology is evaluated with a training-test set paradigm as well as with simulations to examine the robustness of the method to model misspecification. We illustrate this new methodology with data from the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies.

  20. Convolution-based estimation of organ dose in tube current modulated CT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xiaoyu; Segars, W. Paul; Dixon, Robert L.; Samei, Ehsan

    2016-05-01

    Estimating organ dose for clinical patients requires accurate modeling of the patient anatomy and the dose field of the CT exam. The modeling of patient anatomy can be achieved using a library of representative computational phantoms (Samei et al 2014 Pediatr. Radiol. 44 460-7). The modeling of the dose field can be challenging for CT exams performed with a tube current modulation (TCM) technique. The purpose of this work was to effectively model the dose field for TCM exams using a convolution-based method. A framework was further proposed for prospective and retrospective organ dose estimation in clinical practice. The study included 60 adult patients (age range: 18-70 years, weight range: 60-180 kg). Patient-specific computational phantoms were generated based on patient CT image datasets. A previously validated Monte Carlo simulation program was used to model a clinical CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). A practical strategy was developed to achieve real-time organ dose estimation for a given clinical patient. CTDIvol-normalized organ dose coefficients ({{h}\\text{Organ}} ) under constant tube current were estimated and modeled as a function of patient size. Each clinical patient in the library was optimally matched to another computational phantom to obtain a representation of organ location/distribution. The patient organ distribution was convolved with a dose distribution profile to generate {{≤ft(\\text{CTD}{{\\text{I}}\\text{vol}}\\right)}\\text{organ, \\text{convolution}}} values that quantified the regional dose field for each organ. The organ dose was estimated by multiplying {{≤ft(\\text{CTD}{{\\text{I}}\\text{vol}}\\right)}\\text{organ, \\text{convolution}}} with the organ dose coefficients ({{h}\\text{Organ}} ). To validate the accuracy of this dose estimation technique, the organ dose of the original clinical patient was estimated using Monte Carlo program with TCM profiles explicitly modeled. The

  1. Two new oro-cervical radiographic indexes for chronological age estimation: a pilot study on an Italian population.

    PubMed

    Lajolo, Carlo; Giuliani, Michele; Cordaro, Massimo; Marigo, Luca; Marcelli, Antonio; Fiorillo, Fabio; Pascali, Vincenzo L; Oliva, Antonio

    2013-10-01

    Chronological age (CA) plays a fundamental role in forensic dentistry (i.e. personal identification and evaluation of imputability). Even though several studies outlined the association between biological and chronological age, there is still great variability in the estimates. The aim of this study was to determine the possible correlation between biological and CA age through the use of two new radiographic indexes (Oro-Cervical Radiographic Simplified Score - OCRSS and Oro-Cervical Radiographic Simplified Score Without Wisdom Teeth - OCRSSWWT) that are based on the oro-cervical area. Sixty Italian Caucasian individuals were divided into 3 groups according to their CA: Group 1: CAG 1 = 8-14 yr; Group 2: CAG 2 = 14-18 yr; Group 3: CAG 3 = 18-25 yr; panorexes and standardised cephalograms were evaluated according Demirjian's Method for dental age calculation (DM), Cervical Vertebral Maturation method for skeletal age calculation (CVMS) and Third Molar Development for age estimation (TMD). The stages of each method were simplified in order to generate OCRSS, which summarized the simplified scores of the three methods, and OCRSSWWT, which summarized the simplified DM and CVMS scores. There was a significant correlation between OCRSS and CAGs (Slope = 0.954, p < 0.001, R-squared = 0.79) and between OCRSSWWT and CAGs (Slope = 0.863, p < 0.001, R-squared = 0.776). Even though the indexes, especially OCRSS, appear to be highly reliable, growth variability among individuals can deeply influence the anatomical changes from childhood to adulthood. A multi-disciplinary approach that considers many different biomarkers could help make radiological age determination more reliable when it is used to predict CA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  2. The Solar Twin Planet Search. III. The [Y/Mg] clock: estimating stellar ages of solar-type stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucci Maia, M.; Ramírez, I.; Meléndez, J.; Bedell, M.; Bean, J. L.; Asplund, M.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Solar twins are stars with similar stellar (surface) parameters to the Sun that can have a wide range of ages. This provides an opportunity to analyze the variation of their chemical abundances with age. Nissen (2015, A&A, 579, A52) recently suggested that the abundances of the s-process element Y and the α-element Mg could be used to estimate stellar ages. Aims: This paper aims to determine with high precision the Y, Mg, and Fe abundances for a sample of 88 solar twins that span a broad age range (0.3-10.0 Gyr) and investigate their use for estimating ages. Methods: We obtained high-quality Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectra and determined Y and Mg abundances using equivalent widths and a line-by-line differential method within a 1D LTE framework. Stellar parameters and iron abundances were measured in Paper I of this series for all stars, but a few (three) required a small revision. Results: The [Y/Mg] ratio shows a strong correlation with age. It has a slope of -0.041 ± 0.001 dex/Gyr and a significance of 41σ. This is in excellent agreement with the relation first proposed by Nissen (2015). We found some outliers that turned out to be binaries where mass transfer may have enhanced the yttrium abundance. Given a precise measurement of [Y/Mg] with typical error of 0.02 dex in solar twins, our formula can be used to determine a stellar age with ~0.8 Gyr precision in the 0 to 10 Gyr range. Based on observations obtained at the Clay Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile and at the 3.6 m Telescope at the La Silla ESO Observatory, Chile (program ID 188.C-0265).

  3. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  4. Correlation of cystatin C and creatinine based estimates of renal function in children with hydronephrosis.

    PubMed

    Momtaz, Hossein-Emad; Dehghan, Arash; Karimian, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The use of a simple and accurate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating method aiming minute assessment of renal function can be of great clinical importance. This study aimed to determine the association of a GFR estimating by equation that includes only cystatin C (Gentian equation) to equation that include only creatinine (Schwartz equation) among children. A total of 31 children aged from 1 day to 5 years with the final diagnosis of unilateral or bilateral hydronephrosis referred to Besat hospital in Hamadan, between March 2010 and February 2011 were consecutively enrolled. Schwartz and Gentian equations were employed to determine GFR based on plasma creatinine and cystatin C levels, respectively. The proportion of GFR based on Schwartz equation was 70.19± 24.86 ml/min/1.73 m(2), while the level of this parameter based on Gentian method and using cystatin C was 86.97 ± 21.57 ml/min/1.73 m(2). The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis showed a strong direct association between the two levels of GFR measured by Schwartz equation based on serum creatinine level and Gentian method and using cystatin C (r = 0.594, P < 0.001). The linear association between GFR values measured with the two methods included cystatin C based GFR = 50.8+ 0.515 × Schwartz GFR. The correlation between GFR values measured by using serum creatinine and serum cystatin C measurements remained meaningful even after adjustment for patients' gender and age (r = 0.724, P < 0.001). The equation developed based on cystatin C level is comparable with another equation, based on serum creatinine (Schwartz formula) to estimate GFR in children.

  5. Some preliminary estimates of energy utilization in even-aged northern hardwoods

    Treesearch

    William B. Leak

    1970-01-01

    Estimates of energy utilization from various sources indicate that even-aged northern hardwood stands utilize less than 1/2 percent of net solar radiation for wood, leaf, and seed production, and only about 1/10 percent for production of merchantable wood. Forest managers should seek to understand and manipulate the remaining 99+ percent of solar energy, for improving...

  6. A case of an adoptive girl with precocious puberty: the problem of age estimation.

    PubMed

    De Donno, Antonio; Roca, Roberta; Introna, Francesco; Santoro, Valeria

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is one of the main tasks of forensic anthropology and odontology, both on the dead and the living. In living subjects, age estimation may be used to establish an individual's status as a minor in cases involving adoption, criminal responsibility, child pornography, and those seeking asylum, especially where adequate identification documents are lacking. The authors report a case about age assessment of a girl born in Mbujimayi (Democratic Republic of Congo) and later adopted in Italy. The birth certificate issued after finding the child in a state of abandonment (in December 2007), bore date of 12.12.2004, but this was in contrast with the year of birth - 2003 - stated on the certification available to the center that had provided accommodation to the girl in Africa. Her adoptive parents reported that the child had been diagnosed with precocious puberty and was thus under treatment. She weighed 32.5 kg and was 132.5 cm tall. Body mass index (BMI) corresponded to the range between 9.5 and 14 years of age. The assessment of maturity indicators (sexual characteristics) placed the child at the lower limits of Stage II of Tanner's classification (sparse growth of long, slightly darkened, downy straight pubic hair; elevation of the breast and nipple as a small mound with increased diameter of the areolae). The skeletal age was determined by taking X-rays of the hand and wrist using Fels, TW2 and Greulich and Pyle methods. Dental growth was assessed through orthopantomogram using Demirjian's technique. The methods applied were adjusted considering the studies on African population found in the literature, and a skeletal and dental age of 10 years was established. Afterwards, the wrist X-rays performed at the Children's Hospital of Bari, 7 months before our investigation, revealed a skeletal age of 7 years. This evidence showed that, despite the treatment the child had promptly initiated, early puberty had influenced the skeletal growth with an acceleration

  7. A home calendar and recall method of last menstrual period for estimating gestational age in rural Bangladesh: a validation study.

    PubMed

    Gernand, Alison D; Paul, Rina Rani; Ullah, Barkat; Taher, Muhammad A; Witter, Frank R; Wu, Lee; Labrique, Alain B; West, Keith P; Christian, Parul

    2016-10-21

    The best method of gestational age assessment is by ultrasound in the first trimester; however, this method is impractical in large field trials in rural areas. Our objective was to assess the validity of gestational age estimated from prospectively collected date of last menstrual period (LMP) using crown-rump length (CRL) measured in early pregnancy by ultrasound. As part of a large, cluster-randomized, controlled trial in rural Bangladesh, we collected dates of LMP by recall and as marked on a calendar every 5 weeks in women likely to become pregnant. Among those with a urine-test confirmed pregnancy, a subset with gestational age of <15 weeks (n = 353) were enrolled for ultrasound follow-up to measure CRL. We compared interview-assessed LMP with CRL gestational age estimates and classification of preterm, term, and post-term births. LMP-based gestational age was higher than CRL by a mean (SD) of 2.8 (10.7) days; differences varied by maternal education and preterm birth (P < 0.05). Lin's concordance correlation coefficient was good at ultrasound [0.63 (95 % CI 0.56, 0.69)] and at birth [0.77 (95 % CI 0.73, 0.81)]. Validity of classifying preterm birth was high but post-term was lower, with specificity of 96 and 89 % and sensitivity of 86 and 67 %, respectively. Results were similar by parity. Prospectively collected LMP provided a valid estimate of gestational age and preterm birth in a rural, low-income setting and may be a suitable alternative to ultrasound in programmatic settings and large field trials. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00860470.

  8. Twins and the paradox of dental-age estimations: a caution for researchers and clinicians.

    PubMed

    Pechníková, M; De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Vecchio, V; Cameriere, R; Zeqiri, B; Cattaneo, C

    2014-08-01

    The biological age difference among twins is frequently an issue in studies of genetic influence on various dental features, particularly dental development. The timing of dental development is a crucial issue also for many clinicians and researchers. The aim of this study was therefore to verify within groups of twins how dental development differs, by applying Demirjian's method, Mincer's charts of development of third molars and two of Cameriere's methods for dental age estimation, which are among the most popular methods both in the clinical and the forensic scenario. The sample consisted of 64 twin pairs: 21 monozygotic, 30 dizygotic same-sex and 13 dizygotic opposite-sex with an age range between 5.8 and 22.6 years. Dental age was determined from radiographs using the mentioned methods. Results showed that dental age of monozygotic twins is not identical even if they share all their genes. The mean intra-pair difference of monozygotic pairs was low and similar to the difference in dizygotic same-sex twins; the maximum difference between monozygotic twins, however, was surprisingly large (nearly two years). This should lead to some circumspection in the interpretation of systematic estimations of dental age both in the clinical and forensic scenario. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  9. Population-based incidence of exudative age-related macular degeneration and ranibizumab treatment load.

    PubMed

    Geirsdottir, Asbjorg; Jonsson, Oskar; Thorisdottir, Sigridur; Helgadottir, Gudleif; Jonasson, Fridbert; Stefansson, Einar; Sigurdsson, Haraldur

    2012-03-01

    The use of intravitreal vascular endothelial growth factor antibodies for exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) has stressed ophthalmology services and drug budgets throughout the world. The authors study the population-based incidence of exudative AMD in Iceland and the use of intravitreal ranibizumab in a defined population. This is a prospective study of 439 consecutive patients aged 60 years and older with exudative AMD starting intravitreal ranibizumab for exudative AMD in Iceland from March 2007 to December 2009. All patients initially received three consecutive ranibizumab injections, with regular follow-up visits and re-treatment as needed. In total, 517 eyes from 439 patients received treatment for exudative AMD (mean age 79 years). The annual incidence of exudative AMD in the population 60 years and older is 0.29%. The incidence increased with advancing age, double for patients 85 years and older compared with those 75-79 years. Approximately 2400 ranibizumab injections per 100,000 persons aged 60 years and older were given each year for exudative AMD. These data allow an estimation of the incidence of exudative AMD in a Caucasian population and the treatment load with ranibizumab, which may help plan anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment programmes and estimate costs.

  10. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; hide

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  11. An atlas-based organ dose estimator for tomosynthesis and radiography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoye, Jocelyn; Zhang, Yakun; Agasthya, Greeshma; Sturgeon, Greg; Kapadia, Anuj; Segars, W. Paul; Samei, Ehsan

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide patient-specific organ dose estimation based on an atlas of human models for twenty tomosynthesis and radiography protocols. The study utilized a library of 54 adult computational phantoms (age: 18-78 years, weight 52-117 kg) and a validated Monte-Carlo simulation (PENELOPE) of a tomosynthesis and radiography system to estimate organ dose. Positioning of patient anatomy was based on radiographic positioning handbooks. The field of view for each exam was calculated to include relevant organs per protocol. Through simulations, the energy deposited in each organ was binned to estimate normalized organ doses into a reference database. The database can be used as the basis to devise a dose calculator to predict patient-specific organ dose values based on kVp, mAs, exposure in air, and patient habitus for a given protocol. As an example of the utility of this tool, dose to an organ was studied as a function of average patient thickness in the field of view for a given exam and as a function of Body Mass Index (BMI). For tomosynthesis, organ doses can also be studied as a function of x-ray tube position. This work developed comprehensive information for organ dose dependencies across tomosynthesis and radiography. There was a general exponential decrease dependency with increasing patient size that is highly protocol dependent. There was a wide range of variability in organ dose across the patient population, which needs to be incorporated in the metrology of organ dose.

  12. Balancing Score Adjusted Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lendle, Samuel David; Fireman, Bruce; van der Laan, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Adjusting for a balancing score is sufficient for bias reduction when estimating causal effects including the average treatment effect and effect among the treated. Estimators that adjust for the propensity score in a nonparametric way, such as matching on an estimate of the propensity score, can be consistent when the estimated propensity score is not consistent for the true propensity score but converges to some other balancing score. We call this property the balancing score property, and discuss a class of estimators that have this property. We introduce a targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) for a treatment-specific mean with the balancing score property that is additionally locally efficient and doubly robust. We investigate the new estimator’s performance relative to other estimators, including another TMLE, a propensity score matching estimator, an inverse probability of treatment weighted estimator, and a regression-based estimator in simulation studies. PMID:26561539

  13. A person trade-off study to estimate age-related weights for health gains in economic evaluation.

    PubMed

    Petrou, Stavros; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Robinson, Angela; Baker, Rachel

    2013-10-01

    An increasing body of literature is exploring whether the age of the recipient of health care should be a criterion in how health care resources are allocated. The existing literature is constrained both by the relatively small number of age comparison groups within preference-elicitation studies, and by a paucity of methodological robustness tests for order and framing effects and the reliability and transitivity of preferences that would strengthen confidence in the results. This paper reports the results of a study aimed at estimating granulated age-related weights for health gains across the age spectrum that can potentially inform health care decision-making. A sample of 2,500 participants recruited from the health care consumer panels of a social research company completed a person trade-off (or 'matching') study designed to estimate age-related weights for 5- and 10-year life extensions. The results are presented in terms of matrices for alternative age comparisons across the age spectrum. The results revealed a general, although not invariable, tendency to give more weight to health gains, expressed in terms of life extensions, in younger age groups. In over 85% of age comparisons, the person trade-off exercises revealed a preference for life extensions by the younger of the two age groups that were compared. This pattern held regardless of the method of aggregating responses across study participants. Moreover, the relative weight placed on life extensions by the younger of the two age groups was generally, although not invariably, found to increase as the age difference between the comparator age groups increased. Further analyses revealed that the highest mean relative weight placed on life extensions was estimated for 30-year-olds when the ratio of means method was used to aggregate person trade-off responses across study participants. The highest mean relative weight placed on life extensions was estimated for 10-year-olds for 5-year life extensions

  14. Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stukes, Sherry A.; Spagnuolo, John N. Jr.

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

  15. Extreme longevity in freshwater mussels revisited: sources of bias in age estimates derived from mark-recapture experiments

    Treesearch

    Wendell R. Haag

    2009-01-01

    There may be bias associated with mark–recapture experiments used to estimate age and growth of freshwater mussels. Using subsets of a mark–recapture dataset for Quadrula pustulosa, I examined how age and growth parameter estimates are affected by (i) the range and skew of the data and (ii) growth reduction due to handling. I compared predictions...

  16. Age group classification and gender detection based on forced expiratory spirometry.

    PubMed

    Cosgun, Sema; Ozbek, I Yucel

    2015-08-01

    This paper investigates the utility of forced expiratory spirometry (FES) test with efficient machine learning algorithms for the purpose of gender detection and age group classification. The proposed method has three main stages: feature extraction, training of the models and detection. In the first stage, some features are extracted from volume-time curve and expiratory flow-volume loop obtained from FES test. In the second stage, the probabilistic models for each gender and age group are constructed by training Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) and Support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. In the final stage, the gender (or age group) of test subject is estimated by using the trained GMM (or SVM) model. Experiments have been evaluated on a large database from 4571 subjects. The experimental results show that average correct classification rate performance of both GMM and SVM methods based on the FES test is more than 99.3 % and 96.8 % for gender and age group classification, respectively.

  17. Comparison of age estimation between 15-25 years using a modified form of Demirjian’s ten stage method and two teeth regression formula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amiroh; Priaminiarti, M.; Syahraini, S. I.

    2017-08-01

    Age estimation of individuals, both dead and living, is important for victim identification and legal certainty. The Demirjian method uses the third molar for age estimation of individuals above 15 years old. The aim is to compare age estimation between 15-25 years using two Demirjian methods. Development stage of third molars in panoramic radiographs of 50 male and female samples were assessed by two observers using Demirjian’s ten stages and two teeth regression formula. Reliability was calculated using Cohen’s kappa coefficient and the significance of the observations was obtained from Wilcoxon tests. Deviations of age estimation were calculated using various methods. The deviation of age estimation with the two teeth regression formula was ±1.090 years; with ten stages, it was ±1.191 years. The deviation of age estimation using the two teeth regression formula was less than with the ten stages method. The age estimations using the two teeth regression formula or the ten stages method are significantly different until the age of 25, but they can be applied up to the age of 22.

  18. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2013-01-01

    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  19. Forensic age estimation on digital X-ray images: Medial epiphyses of the clavicle and first rib ossification in relation to chronological age.

    PubMed

    Garamendi, Pedro M; Landa, Maria I; Botella, Miguel C; Alemán, Inmaculada

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in forensic sciences about forensic age estimation in living subjects by means of radiological methods. This research was conducted on digital thorax X-rays to test the usefulness of some radiological changes in the clavicle and first rib. The sample consisted in a total of 123 subjects of Spanish origin (61 men and 62 women; age range: 5-75 years). From all subjects, a thorax posterior-anterior radiograph was obtained in digital format. Scoring for fusion of medial epiphyses of the clavicle was carried out by Schmeling's system and ossification of the costal cartilage of the first rib by Michelson's system. Degree of ossification and epiphyseal fusion were analyzed in relation with known age and sex of these subjects. The results give a minimum age of >20 years for full fusion of the medial epiphysis of the clavicle (Stages 4 and 5). Concerning the first rib, all subjects with the final Stage 3 of ossification were above 25 years of age. These results suggest that the first rib ossification might become an additional method to the ones so far recommended for forensic age estimation in subjects around 21. New research would be desirable to confirm this suggestion. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  20. 11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 11 Federal Elections 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

  1. 11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 11 Federal Elections 1 2013-01-01 2012-01-01 true Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

  2. 11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 11 Federal Elections 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

  3. 11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 11 Federal Elections 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

  4. Application of statistical shape analysis for the estimation of bone and forensic age using the shapes of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th cervical vertebrae in a young Japanese population.

    PubMed

    Rhee, Chang-Hoon; Shin, Sang Min; Choi, Yong-Seok; Yamaguchi, Tetsutaro; Maki, Koutaro; Kim, Yong-Il; Kim, Seong-Sik; Park, Soo-Byung; Son, Woo-Sung

    2015-12-01

    From computed tomographic images, the dentocentral synchondrosis can be identified in the second cervical vertebra. This can demarcate the border between the odontoid process and the body of the 2nd cervical vertebra and serve as a good model for the prediction of bone and forensic age. Nevertheless, until now, there has been no application of the 2nd cervical vertebra based on the dentocentral synchondrosis. In this study, statistical shape analysis was used to build bone and forensic age estimation regression models. Following the principles of statistical shape analysis and principal components analysis, we used cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to evaluate a Japanese population (35 males and 45 females, from 5 to 19 years old). The narrowest prediction intervals among the multivariate regression models were 19.63 for bone age and 2.99 for forensic age. There was no significant difference between form space and shape space in the bone and forensic age estimation models. However, for gender comparison, the bone and forensic age estimation models for males had the higher explanatory power. This study derived an improved objective and quantitative method for bone and forensic age estimation based on only the 2nd, 3rd and 4th cervical vertebral shapes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Costs of illness of multiple sclerosis in Sweden: a population-based register study of people of working age.

    PubMed

    Gyllensten, Hanna; Wiberg, Michael; Alexanderson, Kristina; Norlund, Anders; Friberg, Emilie; Hillert, Jan; Ernstsson, Olivia; Tinghög, Petter

    2018-04-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) causes work disability and healthcare resource use, but little is known about the distribution of the associated costs to society. We estimated the cost of illness (COI) of working-aged individuals with MS, from the societal perspective, overall and in different groups. A population-based study was conducted, using data linked from several nationwide registers, on 14,077 individuals with MS, aged 20-64 years and living in Sweden. Prevalence-based direct and indirect costs in 2010 were calculated, including costs for prescription drug use, specialized healthcare, sick leave, and disability pension. The estimated COI of all the MS patients were SEK 3950 million, of which 75% were indirect costs. MS was the main diagnosis for resource use, causing 38% of healthcare costs and 67% of indirect costs. The distribution of costs was skewed, in which less than 25% of the patients accounted for half the total COI. Indirect costs contributed to approximately 75% of the estimated overall COI of MS patients of working age in Sweden. MS was the main diagnosis for more than half of the estimated COI in this patient group. Further studies are needed to gain knowledge on development of costs over time during the MS disease course.

  6. Non-working nurses in Japan: estimated size and its age-cohort characteristics.

    PubMed

    Nakata, Yoshifumi; Miyazaki, Satoru

    2008-12-01

    This paper aims to forecast the total number of non-working nursing staff in Japan both overall and in terms of separate age groups for assistant nurses and fully qualified nurses. This also examines policy implications of those forecasts. Although the existence of around 550,000 of non-working nursing staff has been announced, the actual number of non-working nurses is not so clear that we might make errors in making policy to meet nurse workforce demand and supply in Japan. Estimations by integrating various data on the quantitative characteristics of non-working nursing staff were carried out. Considering the length and the type of education or training in referred four nursing positions; registered nurses, assistant nurses, public health nurses and midwives, we first estimated the number of students who completed a full course. And then multiplying by the ratio for gender and age classifications at the time of entry into courses, the number of those who obtained licenses was estimated. The number of non-working nurses was estimated at 100,000 higher than those in 2005 by government. Looking at age group, it is also possible to see a strong reflection of an employment pattern that follows the life cycle of female workers. Further analysis of life cycle effects and cohort effects proved the effect of life cycles even when subtracting the differences between the working behaviours of different generations. Our findings strongly suggest the need to provide an urgent policy that workplace conditions can be created in which a balance between work and family is achievable. Moreover, to empower clinical activity, we also believe there is an urgent need to reexamine the overall career vision for assistant nurses including in terms of compensation. Relevance to clinical practice. Our findings strongly suggests that consideration for work-life balance of nursing staff; particularly, female staff is all the more important to provide a stable quality care.

  7. The usefulness of Belgian formulae in third molar-based age assessment of Indians.

    PubMed

    Bhowmik, Biyas; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

    2013-03-10

    The third molars are one of few useful predictors for assessing the degree of maturity in adolescence and young adulthood. It has application in age estimation in the age group of 14-23 years, in general, and in juvenile/adult status prediction, in particular. Using a 10-stage grading of third molars, Gunst et al. developed regression formulae on a large sample of Belgians (n=2513) for estimating age. Their research has been recommended as a 'reference study' in age estimation guidelines. The present study has ventured to determine if estimating age in Indians using the Belgian formulae produced results comparable to those reported in the Belgian study; in addition, this study attempts to determine if the same formulae predicted juvenile/adult status (age aged between 14 and 23 years. The OPGs included a mix of one, two, three and four third molars. In total, 916 teeth were assessed using the same 10-stage grading. Age in each OPG was estimated by applying the relevant Belgian regression formulae (regression formulae are available for one, two, three and four third molars). To determine if the formulae produced age estimates comparable to those in the Belgian study, the percentage of Indian subjects whose actual age fell within the 68% confidence interval (CI) (calculated from the ± 1 S.D. value available for each Belgian formula) was ascertained. If ≥ 68% of Indian subjects' age fell inside this interval, it indicates that the Belgian formulae are applicable in Indians. To assess the suitability of the Belgian formulae in predicting juvenile/adult status in Indians, the accuracy of the age estimation per se was not considered, rather, the number of correct age predictions only was noted. Overall, ≈ 74% of Indian subjects' actual age fell within the 68% CI; with regards to the Belgian formulae being able to correctly predict juvenile/adult status

  8. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schiff, C.J.; Kaufman, D.S.; Wallace, K.L.; Werner, A.; Ku, T.-L.; Brown, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS 14C ages, along with the 137Cs and 210Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of the core, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The selected age model is based on a mixed-effect regression that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages ??105 yr (95% confidence intervals). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7/500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of one every 130 yr. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

    PubMed

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

    2017-09-01

    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  10. An examination of healthy aging across a conceptual continuum: prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Sara J; Jette, Alan M; Connell, Cathleen M

    2012-06-01

    Although the notion of healthy aging has gained wide acceptance in gerontology, measuring the phenomenon is challenging. Guided by a prominent conceptualization of healthy aging, we examined how shifting from a more to less stringent definition of healthy aging influences prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity. Data are from adults aged 65 years and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We examined four operational definitions of healthy aging. For each, we calculated prevalence estimates and examined the odds of healthy aging by age, education, gender, and race-ethnicity in 2006. We also examined the association between healthy aging and both self-rated health and death. Across definitions, the prevalence of healthy aging ranged from 3.3% to 35.5%. For all definitions, those classified as experiencing healthy aging had lower odds of fair or poor self-rated health and death over an 8-year period. The odds of being classified as "healthy" were lower among those of advanced age, those with less education, and women than for their corresponding counterparts across all definitions. Moving across the conceptual continuum--from a more to less rigid definition of healthy aging--markedly increases the measured prevalence of healthy aging. Importantly, results suggest that all examined definitions identified a subgroup of older adults who had substantially lower odds of reporting fair or poor health and dying over an 8-year period, providing evidence of the validity of our definitions. Conceptualizations that emphasize symptomatic disease and functional health may be particularly useful for public health purposes.

  11. Model Based Optimal Control, Estimation, and Validation of Lithium-Ion Batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, Hector Eduardo

    notion of interval observers to PDE models using a sensitivity-based approach. Practically, this chapter quantifies the sensitivity of battery state estimates to parameter variations, enabling robust battery management schemes. The effectiveness of the proposed sensitivity-based interval observers is verified via a numerical study for the range of uncertain parameters. Chapter 4: This chapter seeks to derive insight on battery charging control using electrochemistry models. Directly using full order complex multi-partial differential equation (PDE) electrochemical battery models is difficult and sometimes impossible to implement. This chapter develops an approach for obtaining optimal charge control schemes, while ensuring safety through constraint satisfaction. An optimal charge control problem is mathematically formulated via a coupled reduced order electrochemical-thermal model which conserves key electrochemical and thermal state information. The Legendre-Gauss-Radau (LGR) pseudo-spectral method with adaptive multi-mesh-interval collocation is employed to solve the resulting nonlinear multi-state optimal control problem. Minimum time charge protocols are analyzed in detail subject to solid and electrolyte phase concentration constraints, as well as temperature constraints. The optimization scheme is examined using different input current bounds, and an insight on battery design for fast charging is provided. Experimental results are provided to compare the tradeoffs between an electrochemical-thermal model based optimal charge protocol and a traditional charge protocol. Chapter 5: Fast and safe charging protocols are crucial for enhancing the practicality of batteries, especially for mobile applications such as smartphones and electric vehicles. This chapter proposes an innovative approach to devising optimally health-conscious fast-safe charge protocols. A multi-objective optimal control problem is mathematically formulated via a coupled electro-thermal-aging

  12. Official statistics and claims data records indicate non-response and recall bias within survey-based estimates of health care utilization in the older population

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The validity of survey-based health care utilization estimates in the older population has been poorly researched. Owing to data protection legislation and a great number of different health care insurance providers, the assessment of recall and non-response bias is challenging to impossible in many countries. The objective of our study was to compare estimates from a population-based study in older German adults with external secondary data. Methods We used data from the German KORA-Age study, which included 4,127 people aged 65–94 years. Self-report questions covered the utilization of long-term care services, inpatient services, outpatient services, and pharmaceuticals. We calculated age- and sex-standardized mean utilization rates in each domain and compared them with the corresponding estimates derived from official statistics and independent statutory health insurance data. Results The KORA-Age study underestimated the use of long-term care services (−52%), in-hospital days (−21%) and physician visits (−70%). In contrast, the assessment of drug consumption by postal self-report questionnaires yielded similar estimates to the analysis of insurance claims data (−9%). Conclusion Survey estimates based on self-report tend to underestimate true health care utilization in the older population. Direct validation studies are needed to disentangle the impact of recall and non-response bias. PMID:23286781

  13. Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

    PubMed

    Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  14. Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

    1995-01-01

    The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

  15. Validation of one-mile walk equations for the estimation of aerobic fitness in British military personnel under the age of 40 years.

    PubMed

    Lunt, Heather; Roiz De Sa, Daniel; Roiz De Sa, Julia; Allsopp, Adrian

    2013-07-01

    To provide an accurate estimate of peak oxygen uptake (VO2 peak) for British Royal Navy Personnel aged between 18 and 39, comparing a gold standard treadmill based maximal exercise test with a submaximal one-mile walk test. Two hundred military personnel consented to perform a treadmill-based VO2 peak test and two one-mile walk tests round an athletics track. The estimated VO2 peak values from three different one-mile walk equations were compared to directly measured VO2 peak values from the treadmill-based test. One hundred participants formed a validation group from which a new equation was derived and the other 100 participants formed the cross-validation group. Existing equations underestimated the VO2 peak values of the fittest personnel and overestimated the VO2 peak of the least aerobically fit by between 2% and 18%. The new equation derived from the validation group has less bias, the highest correlation with the measured values (r = 0.83), and classified the most people correctly according to the Royal Navy's Fitness Test standards, producing the fewest false positives and false negatives combined (9%). The new equation will provide a more accurate estimate of VO2 peak for a British military population aged 18 to 39. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  16. Towards an Age-Phenome Knowledge-base

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Currently, data about age-phenotype associations are not systematically organized and cannot be studied methodically. Searching for scientific articles describing phenotypic changes reported as occurring at a given age is not possible for most ages. Results Here we present the Age-Phenome Knowledge-base (APK), in which knowledge about age-related phenotypic patterns and events can be modeled and stored for retrieval. The APK contains evidence connecting specific ages or age groups with phenotypes, such as disease and clinical traits. Using a simple text mining tool developed for this purpose, we extracted instances of age-phenotype associations from journal abstracts related to non-insulin-dependent Diabetes Mellitus. In addition, links between age and phenotype were extracted from clinical data obtained from the NHANES III survey. The knowledge stored in the APK is made available for the relevant research community in the form of 'Age-Cards', each card holds the collection of all the information stored in the APK about a particular age. These Age-Cards are presented in a wiki, allowing community review, amendment and contribution of additional information. In addition to the wiki interaction, complex searches can also be conducted which require the user to have some knowledge of database query construction. Conclusions The combination of a knowledge model based repository with community participation in the evolution and refinement of the knowledge-base makes the APK a useful and valuable environment for collecting and curating existing knowledge of the connections between age and phenotypes. PMID:21651792

  17. Costs of cervical cancer treatment: population-based estimates from Ontario

    PubMed Central

    Pendrith, C.; Thind, A.; Zaric, G.S.; Sarma, S.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The objectives of the present study were to estimate the overall and specific medical care costs associated with cervical cancer in the first 5 years after diagnosis in Ontario. Methods Incident cases of invasive cervical cancer during 2007–2010 were identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry and linked to administrative databases held at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. Mean costs in 2010 Canadian dollars were estimated using the arithmetic mean and estimators that adjust for censored data. Results Mean age of the patients in the study cohort (779 cases) was 49.3 years. The mean overall medical care cost was $39,187 [standard error (se): $1,327] in the 1st year after diagnosis. Costs in year 1 ranged from $34,648 (se: $1,275) for those who survived at least 1 year to $69,142 (se: $4,818) for those who died from cervical cancer within 1 year. At 5 years after diagnosis, the mean overall unadjusted cost was $63,131 (se: $3,131), and the cost adjusted for censoring was $68,745 (se: $2,963). Inpatient hospitalizations and cancer-related care were the two largest components of cancer treatment costs. Conclusions We found that the estimated mean costs that did not account for censoring were consistently undervalued, highlighting the importance of estimates based on censoring-adjusted costs in cervical cancer. Our results are reliable for estimating the economic burden of cervical cancer and the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention strategies. PMID:27122978

  18. Simplified estimation of age-specific reference intervals for skewed data.

    PubMed

    Wright, E M; Royston, P

    1997-12-30

    Age-specific reference intervals are commonly used in medical screening and clinical practice, where interest lies in the detection of extreme values. Many different statistical approaches have been published on this topic. The advantages of a parametric method are that they necessarily produce smooth centile curves, the entire density is estimated and an explicit formula is available for the centiles. The method proposed here is a simplified version of a recent approach proposed by Royston and Wright. Basic transformations of the data and multiple regression techniques are combined to model the mean, standard deviation and skewness. Using these simple tools, which are implemented in almost all statistical computer packages, age-specific reference intervals may be obtained. The scope of the method is illustrated by fitting models to several real data sets and assessing each model using goodness-of-fit techniques.

  19. Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in lower premolars by orthopantomography.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; De Luca, Stefano; Alemán, Inmaculada; Ferrante, Luigi; Cingolani, Mariano

    2012-01-10

    Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Since 2004, in order to examine patterns of secondary dentine apposition, Cameriere et al. have been extensively studying the pulp/tooth area ratio of the canines by panoramic and peri-apical X-ray images. The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between age and age-related changes in the pulp/tooth area ratio in monoradicular teeth, with the exception of canines, by orthopantomography. A total of 606 orthopantomograms of Spanish white Caucasian patients (289 women and 317 men), aged between 18 and 75 years and coming from Bilbao and Granada (Spain), was analysed. Regression analysis of age of monoradicular teeth indicated that the lower premolars were the most closely correlated with age. An ANCOVA did not show significant differences between men and women. Multiple regression analysis, with age as dependent variable and pulp/tooth area ratio as predictor, yielded several formulae. R(2) ranged from 0.69 to 0.75 for a single lower premolar tooth and from 0.79 to 0.86 for multiple lower premolar teeth. Depending on the available number of premolar teeth, the mean of the absolute values of residual standard error, at 95% confidence interval, ranged between 4.34 and 6.02 years, showing that the pulp/tooth area ratio is a useful variable for assessing age with reasonable accuracy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Adaptive Window Zero-Crossing-Based Instantaneous Frequency Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekhar, S. Chandra; Sreenivas, TV

    2004-12-01

    We address the problem of estimating instantaneous frequency (IF) of a real-valued constant amplitude time-varying sinusoid. Estimation of polynomial IF is formulated using the zero-crossings of the signal. We propose an algorithm to estimate nonpolynomial IF by local approximation using a low-order polynomial, over a short segment of the signal. This involves the choice of window length to minimize the mean square error (MSE). The optimal window length found by directly minimizing the MSE is a function of the higher-order derivatives of the IF which are not available a priori. However, an optimum solution is formulated using an adaptive window technique based on the concept of intersection of confidence intervals. The adaptive algorithm enables minimum MSE-IF (MMSE-IF) estimation without requiring a priori information about the IF. Simulation results show that the adaptive window zero-crossing-based IF estimation method is superior to fixed window methods and is also better than adaptive spectrogram and adaptive Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD)-based IF estimators for different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

  1. Geomorphologic Features and Age Estimation of Submarine Landslides in the Southwestern Colombian Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Idarraga Garcia, J.; Vargas-Jimenez, C. A.

    2013-05-01

    We analyzed ~17000 km2 of high-resolution-bathymetric data in the southwestern Caribbean Sea of Colombia between the La Aguja Submarine Canyon (LASC) and the Gulf of Urabá. The data allowed us to identify and describe submarine landslides and to calculate their ages based on scarp dating by using numerical solutions of the diffusion equation. The ages are presented in terms of the constant k of diffusivity due to the absence of well constrained values for submarine environments. In the northeastern sector of the study area we differentiated 31 submarine failures associated with the LASC flanks, between 1200 and 3285 m depth, with escarpments slopes ranging between 6.1° and 36.8°; estimated ages suggest ranges between ~407 and ~103.5 k (m2). Triggering mechanisms of these landslides are close related to the occurrence of earthquakes originated in the convergence zone of the Santa Marta and Oca fault systems, and to the flanks instabilities product of the mud diapirism phenomena that is present in the area. In the central sector of the study zone, the continental margin is dominated by the presence of the Magdalena Submarine Fan (MSF). Here, most of the submarine failures are disintegrative (i.e. with no obvious deposit near or at the base of the scar) and all are related to a system of canyons belonging to the Magdalena turbidite system and to an abrupt slope break at the border of the continental shelf. Scarp dating suggests a wide range of ages fluctuating between ~207.1 and ~146427.8 k (m2). Landslides at southernmost sector of the study zone are mainly associated to anticline-related ridges of the Sinú Accretionary Prism. These ridges are structural highs cut by channels and canyons, and are associated with slopes of 10°-25°. In many cases, the failures are disintegrative and it is probable that the associated landslide deposits are buried by subsequent sediments related to broad fans forming in the mouth of channels and canyons. Additionally, some

  2. Evolution on a volcanic conveyor belt: using phylogeographic reconstructions and K-Ar-based ages of the Hawaiian Islands to estimate molecular evolutionary rates.

    PubMed

    Fleischer, R C; McIntosh, C E; Tarr, C L

    1998-04-01

    The Hawaiian Islands form as the Pacific Plate moves over a 'hot spot' in the earth's mantle where magma extrudes through the crust to build huge shield volcanos. The islands subside and erode as the plate carries them to the north-west, eventually to become coral atolls and seamounts. Thus islands are ordered linearly by age, with the oldest islands in the north-west (e.g. Kauai at 5.1 Ma) and the youngest in the south-east (e.g. Hawaii at 0.43 Ma). K-Ar estimates of the date of an island's formation provide a maximum age for the taxa inhabiting the island. These ages can be used to calibrate rates of molecular change under the following assumptions: (i) K-Ar dates are accurate; (ii) tree topologies show that derivation of taxa parallels the timing of island formation; (iii) populations do not colonize long after island emergence; (iv) the coalescent point for sister taxa does not greatly predate the formation of the colonized younger island; (v) saturation effects and (vi) among-lineage rate variation are minimal or correctable; and (vii) unbiased standard errors of distances and regressions can be estimated from multiple pairwise comparisons. We use the approach to obtain overall corrected rate calibrations for: (i) part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in Hawaiian drepanidines (0.016 sequence divergence/Myr); (ii) the Yp1 gene in Hawaiian Drosophila (0.019/Myr Kambysellis et al. 1995); and (iii) parts of the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA and tRNAval in Laupala crickets (0.024-0.102/Myr, Shaw 1996). We discuss the reliability of the estimates given the assumptions (i-vii) above and contrast the results with previous calibrations of Adh in Hawaiian Drosophila and chloroplast DNA in lobeliods.

  3. Application of skeletal age based on x-ray in selecting sports talents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Zongzhen; Xu, Guodong; Song, Tao

    2012-01-01

    Skeletal age has been studied and proved that for most elite athletes, it was coincident with the chronological ages when they were young. In order to explore the application of skeletal age in selecting sports talent, 32 athletes (female, chronological age 5-12 y) were chosen from the Gymnastics Training Base in this study. Their left hand-wrists were photographed with X-rays, and then the skeletal ages were estimated by Chinese version of the Tanner-Whitehouse Skeletal Maturity Assessment System. At the same time, their body shapes, functions, and sports ability were also measured. Results showed that 71.88% of the skeletal age was proportional to their chronological age (+/- 1 y); while 18.75% of the skeletal maturity was retarded by 1- 2 year, 9.37% of those was advanced more than 1 year. On the other hand, the body shape, functions and sports ability of the athletes were positively related with their skeletal maturity. This study proved that the determination of skeletal maturity is a reliable evaluation for selecting sports talent. A further study on the influence of gymnastics on the skeletal age is of great significance.

  4. Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites(.).

    PubMed

    Lottering, Nicolene; MacGregor, Donna M; Alston, Clair L; Watson, Debbie; Gregory, Laura S

    2016-01-01

    Contemporary, population-specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two- to four-tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum-likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  5. Estimating the effect of gestational age on test performance of combined first-trimester screening for Down syndrome: a preliminary study.

    PubMed

    van Heesch, Peter N; Struijk, Pieter C; Laudy, Jaqueline A M; Steegers, Eric A P; Wildschut, Hajo I J

    2010-05-01

    To establish how different methods of estimating gestational age (GA) affect reliability of first-trimester screening for Down syndrome. Retrospective single-center study of 100 women with a viable singleton pregnancy, who had first-trimester screening. We calculated multiples of the median (MoM) for maternal-serum free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (free beta-hCG) and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), derived from either last menstrual period (LMP) or ultrasound-dating scans. In women with a regular cycle, LMP-derived estimates of GA were two days longer (range -11 to 18), than crown-rump length (CRL)-derived estimates of GA whereas this discrepancy was more pronounced in women who reported to have an irregular cycle, i.e., six days (range -7 to 32). Except for PAPP-A in the regular-cycle group, all differences were significant. Consequently, risk estimates are affected by the mode of estimating GA. In fact, LMP-based estimates revealed ten "screen-positive" cases compared to five "screen-positive" cases where GA was derived from dating-scans. Provided fixed values for nuchal translucency are applied, dating-scans reduce the number of screen-positive findings on the basis of biochemical screening. We recommend implementation of guidelines for Down syndrome screening based on CRL-dependent rather than LMP-dependent parameters of GA.

  6. Forensic age estimation using computed tomography of the medial clavicular epiphysis: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Hermetet, Coralie; Saint-Martin, Pauline; Gambier, Arsène; Ribier, Léo; Sautenet, Bénédicte; Rérolle, Camille

    2018-04-30

    Medicolegal physicians are increasingly called upon to aid in determining the administrative age group affiliation of refugees with questionable unaccompanied minor claims. According to guidelines for forensic age assessment, age differentiation along the 18-year-old cut-off relies on clavicular ossification. The thin-slice computed tomography scan (TSCTs) of the medial clavicular epiphysis (MCE) is one of the methods contributing to this assessment, though it is not yet universally accepted. The aim of this systematic review was to identify scientific papers where age was assessed using TSCTs of the MCE and to observe whether this examination was reproducible and reliable in estimating a person's age relative to the 18-year-old threshold. A search algorithm was applied to several databases to identify articles in accordance with the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic-Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. One boxplot per article was constructed, separating by stage of maturation and sex. The 13 articles selected represented a sample of 5605 individuals (3396 males, 2209 females) aged 10 to 35 years. All individuals classified as stages 4 and 5 were aged 18 years or older. The same result was obtained concerning stage 3c, except in one article. The results thus appear reliable and reproducible, in particular, with respect to the 18-year-old threshold; medicolegal physicians should be able to estimate that all individuals in stages 4 and 5 are at least 18 years old. Additional studies applied to several other populations in the world should complement the selected studies.

  7. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Butland, Barbara K.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank; Lai, Christopher; Lamsal, Lok N.; Martin, Randall V.; One, ISAAC Phase

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1° × 1° to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001–2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was –0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): –0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: –0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was –0.116 (95% CI: –0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was –0.139 (95% CI: –0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was –0.171 (95% CI: –0.275, –0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution

  8. Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

    2011-05-01

    Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi

  9. Dietary health does affect histological age assessment: an evaluation of the Stout and Paine (1992) age estimation equation using secondary osteons from the rib.

    PubMed

    Paine, Robert R; Brenton, Barrett P

    2006-05-01

    An age at death estimation equation that uses rib histological variables presented by Stout and Paine was used to evaluate a skeletal population of individuals with a known age at death and cause of death from either malnutrition or the niacin deficiency disease pellagra. The sample was comprised of 26 autopsied black South Africans. Histological analysis of mounted thin sections involved the microscopic measurement of cortical area and a count of the number of intact and fragmentary secondary osteons for the entire cross-section of the rib. Rib osteon population density values were then calculated for each case. It was found that this equation under-aged individuals on average by 29.2 years. Overall, secondary osteon size and Haversian canals tended to be larger than expected, while cortical bone area was less when compared with a control population. The implications of these findings are critical given that many of the skeletal remains examined by forensic anthropologists come from marginalized backgrounds, including malnutrition. This research suggests that measurements based on healthy cases may not be useful in an analysis of individuals with poor diet and health. It is argued that new standards for histological age assessment methods need to be created that account for variation in the health status of individuals examined by forensic anthropologists.

  10. Injuries in Aleppo, Syria; first population-based estimates and characterization of predominant types

    PubMed Central

    Maziak, Wasim; Ward, Kenneth D; Rastam, Samer

    2006-01-01

    Background Despite the growing burden of injuries worldwide, Syria and many other Arab countries still lack population-based estimates of different types of injuries. This study aims toprovide first population-based estimates of major injuries in Syria and characterize groups at increased risk. Methods An interviewer-administered population-based survey of adults 18–65 years residing in Aleppo, Syria was conducted in 2004. The study sample involved 2038 household representatives in Aleppo (45.2% men, mean age 35.3 ± 12.1, response rate 86%). We inquired about participants self-reported injuries in the past year that required medical attention as well as injuries among their household members. When reported, injuries were further assessed according to type, place, and outcome. Results Overall, there was 153 self-reported injuries in the past year (77.3 per 1000 adult respondents, 93.1 per 1000 in men and 64.4 per 1000 in women, p = 0.02). Other than gender, injuries differed by age (the older age group being least affected), and place of occurrence, as men were more likely to sustain traffic injuries and be injured outside the home. Injuries were reported among 236 household members (21.0 per 1000), and were slightly more frequent in children than adults (22.0 per 1000 for children, and 19.7 per 1000 for adults, p = 0.2). Traffic injuries, falls, and poisoning (food) were by far the most common types of injury experienced by participants as well as their household members. Falls and traffic injuries seem to have caused most morbidity for the injured, while burns, although not frequently reported, were associated with an unfavorable outcome in the majority of cases. Conclusion This information provides baseline information about the burden of different injuries in Syria, and the sociodemographic factors related to them. PMID:16533384

  11. Prediction of gestational age based on genome-wide differentially methylated regions.

    PubMed

    Bohlin, J; Håberg, S E; Magnus, P; Reese, S E; Gjessing, H K; Magnus, M C; Parr, C L; Page, C M; London, S J; Nystad, W

    2016-10-07

    We explored the association between gestational age and cord blood DNA methylation at birth and whether DNA methylation could be effective in predicting gestational age due to limitations with the presently used methods. We used data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Birth Cohort study (MoBa) with Illumina HumanMethylation450 data measured for 1753 newborns in two batches: MoBa 1, n = 1068; and MoBa 2, n = 685. Gestational age was computed using both ultrasound and the last menstrual period. We evaluated associations between DNA methylation and gestational age and developed a statistical model for predicting gestational age using MoBa 1 for training and MoBa 2 for predictions. The prediction model was additionally used to compare ultrasound and last menstrual period-based gestational age predictions. Furthermore, both CpGs and associated genes detected in the training models were compared to those detected in a published prediction model for chronological age. There were 5474 CpGs associated with ultrasound gestational age after adjustment for a set of covariates, including estimated cell type proportions, and Bonferroni-correction for multiple testing. Our model predicted ultrasound gestational age more accurately than it predicted last menstrual period gestational age. DNA methylation at birth appears to be a good predictor of gestational age. Ultrasound gestational age is more strongly associated with methylation than last menstrual period gestational age. The CpGs linked with our gestational age prediction model, and their associated genes, differed substantially from the corresponding CpGs and genes associated with a chronological age prediction model.

  12. Anthropometrically estimated total body water volumes are larger than modeled urea volume in chronic hemodialysis patients: effects of age, race, and gender.

    PubMed

    Daugirdas, John T; Greene, Tom; Depner, Thomas A; Chumlea, Cameron; Rocco, Michael J; Chertow, Glenn M

    2003-09-01

    The modeled volume of urea distribution (Vm) in intermittently hemodialyzed patients is often compared with total body water (TBW) volume predicted from population studies of patient anthropometrics (Vant). Using data from the HEMO Study, we compared Vm determined by both blood-side and dialysate-side urea kinetic models with Vant as calculated by the Watson, Hume-Weyers, and Chertow anthropometric equations. Median levels of dialysate-based Vm and blood-based Vm agreed (43% and 44% of body weight, respectively). These volumes were lower than anthropometric estimates of TBW, which had median values of 52% to 55% of body weight for the three formulas evaluated. The difference between the Watson equation for TBW and modeled urea volume was greater in Caucasians (19%) than in African Americans (13%). Correlations between Vm and Vant determined by each of the three anthropometric estimation equations were similar; but Vant derived from the Watson formula had a slightly higher correlation with Vm. The difference between Vm and the anthropometric formulas was greatest with the Chertow equation, less with the Hume-Weyers formula, and least with the Watson estimate. The age term in the Watson equation for men that adjusts Vant downward with increasing age reduced an age effect on the difference between Vant and Vm in men. The findings show that kinetically derived values for V from blood-side and dialysate-side modeling are similar, and that these modeled urea volumes are lower by a substantial amount than anthropometric estimates of TBW. The higher values for anthropometry-derived TBW in hemodialyzed patients could be due to measurement errors. However, the possibility exists that TBW space is contracted in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or that the TBW space and the urea distribution space are not identical.

  13. A holistic aging model for Li(NiMnCo)O2 based 18650 lithium-ion batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmalstieg, Johannes; Käbitz, Stefan; Ecker, Madeleine; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2014-07-01

    Knowledge on lithium-ion battery aging and lifetime estimation is a fundamental aspect for successful market introduction in high-priced goods like electric mobility. This paper illustrates the parameterization of a holistic aging model from accelerated aging tests. More than 60 cells of the same type are tested to analyze different impact factors. In calendar aging tests three temperatures and various SOC are applied to the batteries. For cycle aging tests especially different cycle depths and mean SOC are taken into account. Capacity loss and resistance increase are monitored as functions of time and charge throughput during the tests. From these data physical based functions are obtained, giving a mathematical description of aging. To calculate the stress factors like temperature or voltage, an impedance based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model. The model accepts power and current profiles as input, furthermore an ambient air temperature profile can be applied. Various drive cycles and battery management strategies can be tested and optimized using the lifetime prognosis of this tool. With the validation based on different realistic driving profiles and temperatures, a robust foundation is provided.

  14. Estimation of age of Dali-Ganis rifting and associated volcanic activity, Venus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilevsky, A. T.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of age for the Dali and Ganis Chasma rift zones and their associated volcanism based on photogeologic analysis of stratigraphic relations of rift-associated features with impact craters which have associated features indicative of their age. The features are radar-dark and parabolic, and they are believed to be mantles of debris derived from fallout of the craters' ejecta. They are thought to be among the youngest features on the Venusian surface, so their 'parent' craters must also be very young, evidently among the youngest 10 percent of Venus' crater population. Dali Chasma and Ganis Chasma are a part of a system of rift zones contained within eastern Aphrodite and Atla Regio which is a significant component of Venus tectonics. The rifts of this system are fracture belts which dissect typical Venusian plains with rare islands of tessera terrain. The rift zone system consists of several segments following each other (Diane, Dali, Ganis) and forming the major rift zone line, about 10,000 km long, which has junctions with several other rift zones, including Parga Chasma Rift. The junctions are usually locations of rift-associated volcanism in the form of volcanic edifices (Maat and Ozza Montes) or plain-forming flows flooding some areas within the rift zones and the adjacent plains.

  15. The juvenile face as a suitable age indicator in child pornography cases: a pilot study on the reliability of automated and visual estimation approaches.

    PubMed

    Ratnayake, M; Obertová, Z; Dose, M; Gabriel, P; Bröker, H M; Brauckmann, M; Barkus, A; Rizgeliene, R; Tutkuviene, J; Ritz-Timme, S; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    In cases of suspected child pornography, the age of the victim represents a crucial factor for legal prosecution. The conventional methods for age estimation provide unreliable age estimates, particularly if teenage victims are concerned. In this pilot study, the potential of age estimation for screening purposes is explored for juvenile faces. In addition to a visual approach, an automated procedure is introduced, which has the ability to rapidly scan through large numbers of suspicious image data in order to trace juvenile faces. Age estimations were performed by experts, non-experts and the Demonstrator of a developed software on frontal facial images of 50 females aged 10-19 years from Germany, Italy, and Lithuania. To test the accuracy, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the estimates and the real ages was calculated for each examiner and the Demonstrator. The Demonstrator achieved the lowest MAE (1.47 years) for the 50 test images. Decreased image quality had no significant impact on the performance and classification results. The experts delivered slightly less accurate MAE (1.63 years). Throughout the tested age range, both the manual and the automated approach led to reliable age estimates within the limits of natural biological variability. The visual analysis of the face produces reasonably accurate age estimates up to the age of 18 years, which is the legally relevant age threshold for victims in cases of pedo-pornography. This approach can be applied in conjunction with the conventional methods for a preliminary age estimation of juveniles depicted on images.

  16. Age- and sex-specific reference limits for creatinine, cystatin C and the estimated glomerular filtration rate.

    PubMed

    Hannemann, Anke; Friedrich, Nele; Dittmann, Kathleen; Spielhagen, Christin; Wallaschofski, Henri; Völzke, Henry; Rettig, Rainer; Endlich, Karlhans; Lendeckel, Uwe; Stracke, Sylvia; Nauck, Matthias

    2011-11-14

    Early detection of patients with chronic kidney disease is of great importance. This study developed reference limits for serum creatinine and serum cystatin C concentrations and for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in healthy subjects from the general population aged 25-65 years. This study defined a reference population including 985 subjects from the first follow-up of the Study of Health in Pomerania. Serum creatinine was measured with a modified kinetic Jaffé method. Serum cystatin C was measured with a nephelometric assay. The eGFR was calculated from serum creatinine according to the Cockcroft-Gault (eGFR(CG)) and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (eGFR(MDRD)) equation, respectively, as well as from serum cystatin C according to the formula by Larsson (eGFR(Larsson)). Non-parametric quantile regression was used to estimate the reference limits. For serum creatinine and serum cystatin C the 95th percentile and for eGFR(CG), eGFR(MDRD) and eGFR(Larsson) the 5th percentile were selected as reference limits. All data was weighted to reflect the age- and sex-structure of the German population in 2008. The reference limits for serum creatinine (men: 1.11-1.23 mg/dL; women: 0.93-1.00 mg/dL) and serum cystatin C levels (men: 0.92-1.04 mg/L; women: 0.84-1.02 mg/L) increased with advancing age. The reference limits for eGFR decreased with increasing age (eGFR(CG) men: 106.0-64.7 mL/min, women 84.4-57.9 mL/min; eGFR(MDRD) men: 82.5-62.2 mL/min/1.73 m², women 75.0-58.2 mL/min/1.73 m²; eGFR(Larsson) men: 85.5-72.9 mL/min, women 94.5-75.7 mL/min). This study presents age- and sex-specific reference limits for five measures of renal function based on quantile regression models.

  17. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L

    2007-02-25

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated agemore » uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.« less

  18. Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

    PubMed

    Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

  19. Is Greulich and Pyle standards of skeletal maturation applicable for age estimation in South Indian Andhra children?

    PubMed

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Rao, Dola Srinivasa; Goud, Alampur Srinivas; Sailaja, S; Thetay, Anshuj Ajay Rao; Gopalakrishnan, Meera

    2015-01-01

    Now-a-day age determination has gained importance for various forensic and legal reasons. Skeletal age (SA) of a test population can be estimated by comparing with established standards of Greulich and Pyle (G-P). As this atlas has been prepared using data from upper-class children born between 1917 and 1942 in the USA and the applicability of these standards to contemporary populations has yet to be tested on Andhra children living in India. Hence, this study was aimed to assess the reliability of bone age calculated by G-P atlas in estimation of age in selected population. A total of 660 children (330 girls, 330 boys) between ages 9 and 20 years were randomly selected from outpatient Department of Oral Medicine in GITAM Dental College, Andhra Pradesh. Digital hand-wrist radiographs were obtained and assessed for SA using G-P atlas and the difference between estimated SA and chronological age (CA) were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. G-P method underestimated the SA by 0.23 ± 1.53 years for boys and overestimated SA by 0.02 ± 2 years in girls and mild underestimation was noted in the total sample of about 0.1 ± 1.78 years. Spearman rank test showed significant correlation between SA and CA (r = 0.86; P < 0.001). This study concluded that G-P standards were reliable in assessing age in South Indian Andhra children of age 9-20 years with unknown CA.

  20. Subjective age-of-acquisition norms for 600 Turkish words from four age groups.

    PubMed

    Göz, İlyas; Tekcan, Ali I; Erciyes, Aslı Aktan

    2017-10-01

    The main purpose of this study was to report age-based subjective age-of-acquisition (AoA) norms for 600 Turkish words. A total of 115 children, 100 young adults, 115 middle-aged adults, and 127 older adults provided AoA estimates for 600 words on a 7-point scale. The intraclass correlations suggested high reliability, and the AoA estimates were highly correlated across the four age groups. Children gave earlier AoA estimates than the three adult groups; this was true for high-frequency as well as low-frequency words. In addition to the means and standard deviations of the AoA estimates, we report word frequency, concreteness, and imageability ratings, as well as word length measures (numbers of syllables and letters), for the 600 words as supplemental materials. The present ratings represent a potentially useful database for researchers working on lexical processing as well as other aspects of cognitive processing, such as autobiographical memory.

  1. Pilot-based parametric channel estimation algorithm for DCO-OFDM-based visual light communications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Xuewen; Deng, Honggui; He, Hailang

    2017-10-01

    Due to wide modulation bandwidth in optical communication, multipath channels may be non-sparse and deteriorate communication performance heavily. Traditional compressive sensing-based channel estimation algorithm cannot be employed in this kind of situation. In this paper, we propose a practical parametric channel estimation algorithm for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM)-based visual light communication (VLC) systems based on modified zero correlation code (ZCC) pair that has the impulse-like correlation property. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm achieves better performances than existing least squares (LS)-based algorithm in both bit error ratio (BER) and frequency response estimation.

  2. Sex-specific developmental models for Creophilus maxillosus (L.) (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae): searching for larger accuracy of insect age estimates.

    PubMed

    Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna; Matuszewski, Szymon

    2018-05-01

    Differences in size between males and females, called the sexual size dimorphism, are common in insects. These differences may be followed by differences in the duration of development. Accordingly, it is believed that insect sex may be used to increase the accuracy of insect age estimates in forensic entomology. Here, the sex-specific differences in the development of Creophilus maxillosus were studied at seven constant temperatures. We have also created separate developmental models for males and females of C. maxillosus and tested them in a validation study to answer a question whether sex-specific developmental models improve the accuracy of insect age estimates. Results demonstrate that males of C. maxillosus developed significantly longer than females. The sex-specific and general models for the total immature development had the same optimal temperature range and similar developmental threshold but different thermal constant K, which was the largest in the case of the male-specific model and the smallest in the case of the female-specific model. Despite these differences, validation study revealed just minimal and statistically insignificant differences in the accuracy of age estimates using sex-specific and general thermal summation models. This finding indicates that in spite of statistically significant differences in the duration of immature development between females and males of C. maxillosus, there is no increase in the accuracy of insect age estimates while using the sex-specific thermal summation models compared to the general model. Accordingly, this study does not support the use of sex-specific developmental data for the estimation of insect age in forensic entomology.

  3. Magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: developing a protocol suitable for forensic age estimation.

    PubMed

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Bogaert, Stephanie; Deblaere, Karel; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established dental age estimation methods in sub-adults study the development of third molar root apices on radiographs. In living individuals, however, avoiding ionising radiation is expedient. Studying dental development with magnetic resonance imaging complies with this requirement, adding the advantage of imaging in three dimensions. To elaborate the development of an MRI protocol to visualise all third molars for forensic age estimation, with particular attention to the development of the root apex. Ex vivo scans of porcine jaws and in vivo scans of 10 volunteers aged 17-25 years were performed to select adequate sequences. Studied parameters were T1 vs T2 weighting, ultrashort echo time (UTE), fat suppression, in plane resolution, slice thickness, 3D imaging, signal-to-noise ratio, and acquisition time. A bilateral four-channel flexible surface coil was used. Two observers evaluated the suitability of the images. T2-weighted images were preferred to T1-weighted images. To clearly distinguish root apices in (almost) fully developed third molars an in plane resolution of 0.33 × 0.33 mm 2 was deemed necessary. Taking acquisition time limits into account, only a T2 FSE sequence with slice thickness of 2 mm generated images with sufficient resolution and contrast. UTE, thinner slice T2 FSE and T2 3D FSE sequences could not generate the desired resolution within 6.5 minutes. Three Tesla MRI of the third molars is a feasible technique for forensic age estimation, in which a T2 FSE sequence can provide the desired in plane resolution within a clinically acceptable acquisition time.

  4. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible to...

  5. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible to...

  6. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible to...

  7. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible to...

  8. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible to...

  9. Estimating Age of Mature Adults from the Degeneration of the Sternal End of the Clavicle

    PubMed Central

    Falys, Ceri G; Prangle, Dennis

    2015-01-01

    The sternal end of the clavicle has been illustrated to be useful in aging young adults, however, no studies have investigated what age-related changes occur to the sternal end post epiphyseal fusion. In this study, three morphological features (i.e., surface topography, porosity, and osteophyte formation) were examined and scored using 564 clavicles of individuals of European ancestry (n = 318 males; n = 246 females), with known ages of 40+ years, from four documented skeletal collections: Hamann-Todd, Pretoria, St. Bride's, and Coimbra. An ordinal scoring method was developed for each of the three traits. Surface topography showed the strongest correlation with age, and composite scores (formed by summing the three separate trait scores) indicated progressive degeneration of the surface with increasing chronological age. Linear regression analyses were performed on the trait scores to produce pooled-sample age estimation equations. Blind tests of the composite score method and regression formulae on 56 individuals, aged 40+ years, from Christ Church Spitalfields, suggest accuracies of 96.4% for both methods. These preliminary results display the first evidence of the utility of the sternal end of the clavicle in aging older adult individuals. However, in the current format, these criteria should only be applied to individuals already identified as over 40 years in order to refine the age ranges used for advanced age. These findings do suggest the sternal end of the clavicle has potential to aid age estimates beyond the traditional “mature adult” age category (i.e., 46+ years), and provides several suggestions for future research. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:203–214, 2015. © 2014 The Authors American Journal of Physical Anthropology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25327699

  10. An epigenetic aging clock for dogs and wolves.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Michael J; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Horvath, Steve; Pellegrini, Matteo

    2017-03-28

    Several articles describe highly accurate age estimation methods based on human DNA-methylation data. It is not yet known whether similar epigenetic aging clocks can be developed based on blood methylation data from canids. Using Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing, we assessed blood DNA-methylation data from 46 domesticated dogs ( Canis familiaris ) and 62 wild gray wolves ( C. lupus ). By regressing chronological dog age on the resulting CpGs, we defined highly accurate multivariate age estimators for dogs (based on 41 CpGs), wolves (67 CpGs), and both combined (115 CpGs). Age related DNA methylation changes in canids implicate similar gene ontology categories as those observed in humans suggesting an evolutionarily conserved mechanism underlying age-related DNA methylation in mammals.

  11. An epigenetic aging clock for dogs and wolves

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Michael J.; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Horvath, Steve; Pellegrini, Matteo

    2017-01-01

    Several articles describe highly accurate age estimation methods based on human DNA-methylation data. It is not yet known whether similar epigenetic aging clocks can be developed based on blood methylation data from canids. Using Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing, we assessed blood DNA-methylation data from 46 domesticated dogs (Canis familiaris) and 62 wild gray wolves (C. lupus). By regressing chronological dog age on the resulting CpGs, we defined highly accurate multivariate age estimators for dogs (based on 41 CpGs), wolves (67 CpGs), and both combined (115 CpGs). Age related DNA methylation changes in canids implicate similar gene ontology categories as those observed in humans suggesting an evolutionarily conserved mechanism underlying age-related DNA methylation in mammals. PMID:28373601

  12. Estimated Daily Average Per Capita Water Ingestion by Child and Adult Age Categories Based on USDA's 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The a...

  13. A new method for ageing Marbled Murrelets and the effect on productivity estimates

    Treesearch

    L.L. Long; C.J. Ralph; S. Miller

    2001-01-01

    Accurate knowledge of the number of newly-fledged juveniles offshore is critical to estimates of productivity of the threatened Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus). We describe a method for collecting productivity data which allows researchers to objectively evaluate age determinations and their effect on juvenile percentages. This has the...

  14. Random regression models on Legendre polynomials to estimate genetic parameters for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

    PubMed

    Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G; Alencar, M M

    2010-08-01

    The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions for direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects, and subsequently, to derive relevant genetic parameters for growth traits in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 weight records on 2435 females from birth to adult age. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups (year and month of birth and at weighing) and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were allowed to vary and were modelled by a step function with 1, 4 or 11 classes based on animal's age. The model fitting four classes of residual variances was the best. A total of 12 random regression models from second to seventh order were used to model direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The model with direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects fitted by quadric, cubic, quintic and linear Legendre polynomials, respectively, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Estimates of direct and maternal heritability obtained by multi-trait (seven traits) and random regression models were very similar. Selection for higher weight at any age, especially after weaning, will produce an increase in mature cow weight. The possibility to modify the growth curve in Canchim cattle to obtain animals with rapid growth at early ages and moderate to low mature cow weight is limited.

  15. Postnatal gestational age estimation using newborn screening blood spots: a proposed validation protocol

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, Malia S Q; Hawken, Steven; Atkinson, Katherine M; Milburn, Jennifer; Pervin, Jesmin; Gravett, Courtney; Stringer, Jeffrey S A; Rahman, Anisur; Lackritz, Eve; Chakraborty, Pranesh; Wilson, Kumanan

    2017-01-01

    Background Knowledge of gestational age (GA) is critical for guiding neonatal care and quantifying regional burdens of preterm birth. In settings where access to ultrasound dating is limited, postnatal estimates are frequently used despite the issues of accuracy associated with postnatal approaches. Newborn metabolic profiles are known to vary by severity of preterm birth. Recent work by our group and others has highlighted the accuracy of postnatal GA estimation algorithms derived from routinely collected newborn screening profiles. This protocol outlines the validation of a GA model originally developed in a North American cohort among international newborn cohorts. Methods Our primary objective is to use blood spot samples collected from infants born in Zambia and Bangladesh to evaluate our algorithm’s capacity to correctly classify GA within 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks. Secondary objectives are to 1) determine the algorithm's accuracy in small-for-gestational-age and large-for-gestational-age infants, 2) determine its ability to correctly discriminate GA of newborns across dichotomous thresholds of preterm birth (≤34 weeks, <37 weeks GA) and 3) compare the relative performance of algorithms derived from newborn screening panels including all available analytes and those restricted to analyte subsets. The study population will consist of infants born to mothers already enrolled in one of two preterm birth cohorts in Lusaka, Zambia, and Matlab, Bangladesh. Dried blood spot samples will be collected and sent for analysis in Ontario, Canada, for model validation. Discussion This study will determine the validity of a GA estimation algorithm across ethnically diverse infant populations and assess population specific variations in newborn metabolic profiles. PMID:29104765

  16. Snow Water Equivalent estimation based on satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macchiavello, G.; Pesce, F.; Boni, G.; Gabellani, S.

    2009-09-01

    The availability of remotely sensed images and them analysis is a powerful tool for monitoring the extension and typology of snow cover over territory where the in situ measurements are often difficult. Information on snow are fundamental for monitoring and forecasting the available water above all in regions at mid latitudes as Mediterranean where snowmelt may cause floods. The hydrological model requirements and the daily acquisitions of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), drove, in previous research activities, to the development of a method to automatically map the snow cover from multi-spectral images. But, the major hydrological parameter related to the snow pack is the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). This represents a direct measure of stored water in the basin. Because of it, the work was focused to the daily estimation of SWE from MODIS images. But, the complexity of this aim, based only on optical data, doesn’t find any information in literature. Since, from the spectral range of MODIS data it is not possible to extract a direct relation between spectral information and the SWE. Then a new method, respectful of the physic of the snow, was defined and developed. Reminding that the snow water equivalent is the product of the three factors as snow density, snow depth and the snow covered areas, the proposed approach works separately on each of these physical behaviors. Referring to the physical characteristic of snow, the snow density is function of the snow age, then it was studied a new method to evaluate this. Where, a module for snow age simulation from albedo information was developed. It activates an age counter updated by new snow information set to estimate snow age from zero accumulation status to the end of melting season. The height of the snow pack, can be retrieved by adopting relation between vegetation and snow depth distributions. This computes snow height distribution by the relation between snow cover fraction and the

  17. Aortic pulse wave velocity and reflecting distance estimation from peripheral waveforms in humans: detection of age- and exercise training-related differences.

    PubMed

    Pierce, Gary L; Casey, Darren P; Fiedorowicz, Jess G; Seals, Douglas R; Curry, Timothy B; Barnes, Jill N; Wilson, DeMaris R; Stauss, Harald M

    2013-07-01

    We hypothesized that demographic/anthropometric parameters can be used to estimate effective reflecting distance (EfRD), required to derive aortic pulse wave velocity (APWV), a prognostic marker of cardiovascular risk, from peripheral waveforms and that such estimates can discriminate differences in APWV and EfRD with aging and habitual endurance exercise in healthy adults. Ascending aortic pressure waveforms were derived from peripheral waveforms (brachial artery pressure, n = 25; and finger volume pulse, n = 15) via a transfer function and then used to determine the time delay between forward- and backward-traveling waves (Δtf-b). True EfRDs were computed as directly measured carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CFPWV) × 1/2Δtf-b and then used in regression analysis to establish an equation for EfRD based on demographic/anthropometric data (EfRD = 0.173·age + 0.661·BMI + 34.548 cm, where BMI is body mass index). We found good agreement between true and estimated APWV (Pearson's R² = 0.43; intraclass correlation = 0.64; both P < 0.05) and EfRD (R² = 0.24; intraclass correlation = 0.40; both P < 0.05). In young sedentary (22 ± 2 years, n = 6), older sedentary (62 ± 1 years, n = 24), and older endurance-trained (61 ± 2 years, n = 14) subjects, EfRD (from demographic/anthropometric parameters), APWV, and 1/2Δtf-b (from brachial artery pressure waveforms) were 52.0 ± 0.5, 61.8 ± 0.4, and 60.6 ± 0.5 cm; 6.4 ± 0.3, 9.6 ± 0.2, and 8.1 ± 0.2 m/s; and 82 ± 3, 65 ± 1 and 76 ± 2 ms (all P < 0.05), respectively. Our results demonstrate that APWV derived from peripheral waveforms using age and BMI to estimate EfRD correlates with CFPWV in healthy adults. This method can reliably detect the distal shift of the reflecting site with age and the increase in APWV with sedentary aging that is attenuated with habitual endurance exercise.

  18. New Estimates of Intergenerational Time Intervals for the Calculation of Age and Origins of Mutations

    PubMed Central

    Tremblay, Marc; Vézina, Hélène

    2000-01-01

    Summary Intergenerational time intervals are frequently used in human population-genetics studies concerned with the ages and origins of mutations. In most cases, mean intervals of 20 or 25 years are used, regardless of the demographic characteristics of the population under study. Although these characteristics may vary from prehistoric to historical times, we suggest that this value is probably too low, and that the ages of some mutations may have been underestimated. Analyses were performed by using the BALSAC Population Register (Quebec, Canada), from which several intergenerational comparisons can be made. Family reconstitutions were used to measure interval lengths and variations in descending lineages. Various parameters were considered, such as spouse age at marriage, parental age, and reproduction levels. Mother-child and father-child intervals were compared. Intergenerational male and female intervals were also analyzed in 100 extended ascending genealogies. Results showed that a mean value of 30 years is a better estimate of intergenerational intervals than 20 or 25 years. As marked differences between male and female interval length were observed, specific values are proposed for mtDNA, autosomal, X-chromosomal, and Y-chromosomal loci. The applicability of these results for age estimates of mutations is discussed. PMID:10677323

  19. Pulp/tooth ratio of mandibular first and second molars on panoramic radiographs: An aid for forensic age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Palak H.; Venkatesh, Rashmi

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine and compare the accuracy of pulp/tooth ratio method in mandibular first and second molar teeth in forensic age estimation. Materials and Methods: A total 300 panoramic radiographs of the Gujarati population (187 males and 113 females) were studied. The measurements of Pulp Chamber Height (PCH) and Crown Root Trunk Height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth. The acquired data was subjected to correlation and regression. Results: The pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of both the first (r = −0.609) and second molars (r = −0.422) were significantly correlated with the age of the individual. Individual regression formulae were derived for both the teeth which were then used separately to calculate the age. The standard errors estimate (SEE) for the first and second molars were 8.84 years and 10.11 years, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between chronological and calculated age by both the teeth (P = 1.000). Conclusion: The mandibular first and second molar is a potential tool for age estimation in forensic dentistry. The pulp/tooth ratio of both the teeth is a useful method for forensic age prediction with reasonable accuracy in the Gujarati population. PMID:27555734

  20. Immunity to polio, measles and rubella in women of child-bearing age and estimated congenital rubella syndrome incidence, Cambodia, 2012.

    PubMed

    Mao, B; Chheng, K; Wannemuehler, K; Vynnycky, E; Buth, S; Soeung, S C; Reef, S; Weldon, W; Quick, L; Gregory, C J

    2015-07-01

    Significant gaps in immunity to polio, measles, and rubella may exist in adults in Cambodia and threaten vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) elimination and control goals, despite high childhood vaccination coverage. We conducted a nationwide serological survey during November-December 2012 of 2154 women aged 15-39 years to assess immunity to polio, measles, and rubella and to estimate congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence. Measles and rubella antibodies were detected by IgG ELISA and polio antibodies by microneutralization testing. Age-structured catalytic models were fitted to rubella serological data to predict CRS cases. Overall, 29.8% of women lacked immunity to at least one poliovirus (PV); seroprevalence to PV1, PV2 and PV3 was 85.9%, 93.4% and 83.3%, respectively. Rubella and measles antibody seroprevalence was 73.3% and 95.9%, respectively. In the 15-19 years age group, 48.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 42.4-54.1] were susceptible to either PV1 or PV3, and 40.3% (95% CI 33.0-47.5) to rubella virus. Based on rubella antibody seroprevalence, we estimate that >600 infants are born with CRS in Cambodia annually. Significant numbers of Cambodian women are still susceptible to polio and rubella, especially those aged 15-19 years, emphasizing the need to include adults in VPD surveillance and a potential role for vaccination strategies targeted at adults.

  1. Accuracy of gestational age estimated by menstrual dating in women seeking abortion beyond nine weeks.

    PubMed

    Norman, Wendy V; Bergunder, Jeannette; Eccles, Lisa

    2011-03-01

    We sought to quantify the accuracy of estimating gestational age by reported last menstrual period among women seeking surgical abortion. We observed that women seeking surgical abortion underestimated their gestational age when making the appointment, leading to poor allocation of resources. This tendency to underestimate has not previously been reported and differs from the accurate dating reported among women choosing either medical abortion or continuation of the pregnancy. We performed a retrospective review of randomly selected medical records for women with abortions scheduled at 9 to 20 weeks' gestation (n = 415) at two clinics in Vancouver between 2002 and 2008. The mean gestational age calculated by menstrual dates (14.3, SD 3.9) was 1.2 (95% CI 0.9 to 1.4) weeks less than that calculated by ultrasound (15.5, SD 3.4) (P < 0.001). Greater gestational age was associated with a larger discrepancy (r = 0.192, P < 0.001). Variables other than gestational age (maternal age, parity, previous abortions, illicit drug use, and contraceptive method at conception) were not significant predictors of inaccurate menstrual dating. Women seeking surgical abortion for pregnancies of 9 to 20 weeks underreport gestational age by an average of 1.2 weeks using menstrual dating. We found that women who intended to continue with their pregnancy overestimated their gestational age, those seeking very early abortion estimated most accurately, and those seeking surgical abortion at more than nine weeks had a clinically significant underestimation of their gestational age. Clinicians referring and counselling women who are considering surgical abortion must facilitate timely access to clinical or ultrasound dating of their pregnancy.

  2. Localized Dictionaries Based Orientation Field Estimation for Latent Fingerprints.

    PubMed

    Xiao Yang; Jianjiang Feng; Jie Zhou

    2014-05-01

    Dictionary based orientation field estimation approach has shown promising performance for latent fingerprints. In this paper, we seek to exploit stronger prior knowledge of fingerprints in order to further improve the performance. Realizing that ridge orientations at different locations of fingerprints have different characteristics, we propose a localized dictionaries-based orientation field estimation algorithm, in which noisy orientation patch at a location output by a local estimation approach is replaced by real orientation patch in the local dictionary at the same location. The precondition of applying localized dictionaries is that the pose of the latent fingerprint needs to be estimated. We propose a Hough transform-based fingerprint pose estimation algorithm, in which the predictions about fingerprint pose made by all orientation patches in the latent fingerprint are accumulated. Experimental results on challenging latent fingerprint datasets show the proposed method outperforms previous ones markedly.

  3. Aging adult skull remains through radiological density estimates: A comparison of different computed tomography systems and the use of computer simulations to judge the accuracy of results.

    PubMed

    Obert, Martin; Kubelt, Carolin; Schaaf, Thomas; Dassinger, Benjamin; Grams, Astrid; Gizewski, Elke R; Krombach, Gabriele A; Verhoff, Marcel A

    2013-05-10

    The objective of this article was to explore age-at-death estimates in forensic medicine, which were methodically based on age-dependent, radiologically defined bone-density (HC) decay and which were investigated with a standard clinical computed tomography (CT) system. Such density decay was formerly discovered with a high-resolution flat-panel CT in the skulls of adult females. The development of a standard CT methodology for age estimations--with thousands of installations--would have the advantage of being applicable everywhere, whereas only few flat-panel prototype CT systems are in use worldwide. A Multi-Slice CT scanner (MSCT) was used to obtain 22,773 images from 173 European human skulls (89 male, 84 female), taken from a population of patients from the Department of Neuroradiology at the University Hospital Giessen and Marburg during 2010 and 2011. An automated image analysis was carried out to evaluate HC of all images. The age dependence of HC was studied by correlation analysis. The prediction accuracy of age-at-death estimates was calculated. Computer simulations were carried out to explore the influence of noise on the accuracy of age predictions. Human skull HC values strongly scatter as a function of age for both sexes. Adult male skull bone-density remains constant during lifetime. Adult female HC decays during lifetime, as indicated by a correlation coefficient (CC) of -0.53. Prediction errors for age-at-death estimates for both of the used scanners are in the range of ±18 years at a 75% confidence interval (CI). Computer simulations indicate that this is the best that can be expected for such noisy data. Our results indicate that HC-decay is indeed present in adult females and that it can be demonstrated both by standard and by high-resolution CT methods, applied to different subject groups of an identical population. The weak correlation between HC and age found by both CT methods only enables a method to estimate age-at-death with limited

  4. Comparison of gestational age at birth based on last menstrual period and ultrasound during the first trimester.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Caroline S; Messer, Lynne C; Mendola, Pauline; Savitz, David A; Herring, Amy H; Hartmann, Katherine E

    2008-11-01

    Reported last menstrual period (LMP) is commonly used to estimate gestational age (GA) but may be unreliable. Ultrasound in the first trimester is generally considered a highly accurate method of pregnancy dating. The authors compared first trimester report of LMP and first trimester ultrasound for estimating GA at birth and examined whether disagreement between estimates varied by maternal and infant characteristics. Analyses included 1867 singleton livebirths to women enrolled in a prospective pregnancy cohort. The authors computed the difference between LMP and ultrasound GA estimates (GA difference) and examined the proportion of births within categories of GA difference stratified by maternal and infant characteristics. The proportion of births classified as preterm, term and post-term by pregnancy dating methods was also examined. LMP-based estimates were 0.8 days (standard deviation = 8.0, median = 0) longer on average than ultrasound estimates. LMP classified more births as post-term than ultrasound (4.0% vs. 0.7%). GA difference was greater among young women, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic women, women of non-optimal body weight and mothers of low-birthweight infants. Results indicate first trimester report of LMP reasonably approximates gestational age obtained from first trimester ultrasound, but the degree of discrepancy between estimates varies by important maternal characteristics.

  5. Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

  6. Applicability of Cameriere's and Drusini's age estimation methods to a sample of Turkish adults.

    PubMed

    Hatice, Boyacioglu Dogru; Nihal, Avcu; Nursel, Akkaya; Humeyra Ozge, Yilanci; Goksuluk, Dincer

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the applicability of Drusini's and Cameriere's methods to a sample of Turkish people. Panoramic images of 200 individuals were allocated into two groups as study and test groups and examined by two observers. Tooth coronal indexes (TCI), which is the ratio between coronal pulp cavity height and crown height, were calculated in the mandibular first and second premolars and molars. Pulp/tooth area ratios (ARs) were calculated in the maxillary and mandibular canine teeth. Study group measurements were used to derive a regression model. Test group measurements were used to evaluate the accuracy of the regression model. Pearson's correlation coefficients and regression analysis were used. The correlations between TCIs and age were -0.230, -0.301, -0.344 and -0.257 for mandibular first premolar, second premolar, first molar and second molar, respectively. Those for the maxillary canine (MX) and mandibular canine (MN) ARs were -0.716 and -0.514, respectively. The MX ARs were used to build the linear regression model that explained 51.2% of the total variation, with a standard error of 9.23 years. The mean error of the estimates in test group was 8 years and age of 64% of the individuals were estimated with an error of <±10 years which is acceptable in forensic age prediction. The low correlation coefficients between age and TCI indicate that Drusini's method was not applicable to the estimation of age in a Turkish population. Using Cameriere's method, we derived a regression model.

  7. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

  8. The chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han population in southwestern China.

    PubMed

    Qing, Maofeng; Qiu, Lihua; Gao, Zhi; Bhandari, Kishor

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate the chronology of third molar mineralization in Han population of southwestern China and find its unique characteristics so that it would provide a reference in several legal cases like forensic age estimation. The study used Demirjian's staging method to study 2192 orthopantomograms of 984 male and 1208 female subjects aged between 8 and 25 years. The statistical data was analyzed by Student's t test and ANOVA. The conclusions of the study are: (1) The chronological mineralization age of third molars of Han population in Southwestern China is similar to the Turkish and the Japanese, was earlier than the Austrian and Han of South China, but later than the Spanish. (2) The mineralization timing of the third molars between two sides in maxilla or mandible has no significant differences in the same gender group. (3) There is no significant difference in mineralization of third molars between male and female, except for tooth 48 in Demirjian's stage E. (4) The mineralization of third molar in maxilla is earlier than mandible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  9. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study.

    PubMed

    Priyadharshini, K Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B; Mohanbabu, V; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-05-01

    To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A-H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P < 0.05 was considered as the level of significance. The results showed that the mean age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P < 0.05). There are differences indicating that maxillary and mandibular third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization.

  10. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study

    PubMed Central

    Priyadharshini, K. Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B.; Mohanbabu, V.; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A–H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. Materials and Methods: A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P < 0.05 was considered as the level of significance. Results: The results showed that the mean age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P < 0.05). Conclusion: There are differences indicating that maxillary and mandibular third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization. PMID:25984465

  11. A novel SURE-based criterion for parametric PSF estimation.

    PubMed

    Xue, Feng; Blu, Thierry

    2015-02-01

    We propose an unbiased estimate of a filtered version of the mean squared error--the blur-SURE (Stein's unbiased risk estimate)--as a novel criterion for estimating an unknown point spread function (PSF) from the degraded image only. The PSF is obtained by minimizing this new objective functional over a family of Wiener processings. Based on this estimated blur kernel, we then perform nonblind deconvolution using our recently developed algorithm. The SURE-based framework is exemplified with a number of parametric PSF, involving a scaling factor that controls the blur size. A typical example of such parametrization is the Gaussian kernel. The experimental results demonstrate that minimizing the blur-SURE yields highly accurate estimates of the PSF parameters, which also result in a restoration quality that is very similar to the one obtained with the exact PSF, when plugged into our recent multi-Wiener SURE-LET deconvolution algorithm. The highly competitive results obtained outline the great potential of developing more powerful blind deconvolution algorithms based on SURE-like estimates.

  12. A Systematic Approach for Model-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

    2010-01-01

    A requirement for effective aircraft engine performance estimation is the ability to account for engine degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. This paper presents a linear point design methodology for minimizing the degradation-induced error in model-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications. The technique specifically focuses on the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown health parameters than available sensor measurements. A condition for Kalman filter-based estimation is that the number of health parameters estimated cannot exceed the number of sensed measurements. In this paper, the estimated health parameter vector will be replaced by a reduced order tuner vector whose dimension is equivalent to the sensed measurement vector. The reduced order tuner vector is systematically selected to minimize the theoretical mean squared estimation error of a maximum a posteriori estimator formulation. This paper derives theoretical estimation errors at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the estimation accuracy achieved through conventional maximum a posteriori and Kalman filter estimation approaches. Maximum a posteriori estimation results demonstrate that reduced order tuning parameter vectors can be found that approximate the accuracy of estimating all health parameters directly. Kalman filter estimation results based on the same reduced order tuning parameter vectors demonstrate that significantly improved estimation accuracy can be achieved over the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuner vector. However, additional development is necessary to fully extend the methodology to Kalman filter-based

  13. Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, Niel; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

    1998-01-01

    discharging from 30 of the 46 springs sampled were less than 20 years, including 5 that were 'modern' (0-4 years). Four samples had apparent ages of 22 to 34 years, and two others from thermal springs were 40 years or greater. The remaining ten samples were contaminated with local sources of CFC and could not be dated. Nitrate concentrations and nitrate delta 15 nitrogen (15N) values in water from many springs are similar to those in shallow ground water beneath fertilized fields, and some values are high enough to indicate a probable source from animal-waste components. The nitrogen data reported here highlight the significance of the springs sampled during this study as pathways for nutrient transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Ground-water samples were collected from springs during an unusually high flow period and thus may not be representative of low base-flow conditions. Residence times estimated from plausible ranges of aquifer properties and results of previous age-dating analyses generally corroborate the apparent-age analysis made in the current study and suggests that some residence times could be much longer. The shortest residence times tend to be in the Blue Ridge and northern carbonate areas; however, the data are preliminary and not appropriate for statistical tests of significance or variance. Because the age distributions in the aquifer discharging to the springs are not known, and because the apparent ages of water from the springs are based on various com-binations of CFC criteria, the apparent ages and calculated residence times are compared for illustrative purposes but are considered preliminary until further work is accomplished.

  14. Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT.

    PubMed

    Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Clinthorne, N H; Fessler, J A; Hero, A O

    1994-01-01

    The authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. They also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, the authors discuss model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy.

  15. Age estimation by modified Demirjian's method (2004) and its applicability in Tibetan young adults: A digital panoramic study.

    PubMed

    Bijjaragi, Shobha C; Sangle, Varsha A; Saraswathi, F K; Patil, Veerendra S; Ashwini Rani, S R; Bapure, Sunil K

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of the age is a procedure adopted by anthropologists, archeologists and forensic scientists. Different methods have been undertaken. However none of them meet the standards as Demirjian's method since 1973. Various researchers have applied this method, in both original and modified form (Chaillet and Demirjian in 2004) in different ethnic groups and the results obtained were not satisfactory. To determine the applicability and accuracy of modified Demirjian's method of dental age estimation (AE) in 8-18 year old Tibetan young adults to evaluate the interrelationship between dental and chronological age and the reliability between intra- and inter observer relationship. Clinical setting and computerized design. A total of 300 Tibetan young adults with an age range from 8 to 18 years were recruited in the study. Digital panoramic radiographs (DPRs) were evaluated as per the modified Demirjian's method (2004). Pearson correlation, paired t-test, linear regression analysis. Inter -and intraobserver reliability revealed a strong agreement. A positive and strong association was found between chronological age and estimated dental age (r = 0.839) with P < 0.01. Modified Demirjian method (2004) overestimated the age by 0.04 years (2.04 months)in Tibetan young adults. Results suggest that, the modified Demirjian method of AE is not suitable for Tibetan young adults. Further studies: With larger sample size and comparision with different methods of AE in a given population would be an interesting area for future research.

  16. Age-related differences in time-based prospective memory: The role of time estimation in the clock monitoring strategy.

    PubMed

    Vanneste, Sandrine; Baudouin, Alexia; Bouazzaoui, Badiâa; Taconnat, Laurence

    2016-07-01

    Time-based prospective memory (TBPM) is required when it is necessary to remember to perform an action at a specific future point in time. This type of memory has been found to be particularly sensitive to ageing, probably because it requires a self-initiated response at a specific time. In this study, we sought to examine the involvement of temporal processes in the time monitoring strategy, which has been demonstrated to be a decisive factor in TBPM efficiency. We compared the performance of young and older adults in a TBPM task in which they had to press a response button every minute while categorising words. The design allowed participants to monitor time by checking a clock whenever they decided. Participants also completed a classic time-production task and several executive tasks assessing inhibition, updating and shifting processes. Our results confirm an age-related lack of accuracy in prospective memory performance, which seems to be related to a deficient strategic use of time monitoring. This could in turn be partially explained by age-related temporal deficits, as evidenced in the duration production task. These findings suggest that studies designed to investigate the age effect in TBPM tasks should consider the contribution of temporal mechanisms.

  17. Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poussart, P. M.; Myneni, S. C. B.; Lanzirotti, A.

    2006-09-01

    Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years [Chambers et al., 1998]. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings (Whitmore, 1990). Alternative methods exist (dendrometry (DaSilva et al., 2002), radio- and stable isotopes (Evans and Schrag, 2004; Poussart et al., 2004; Poussart and Schrag, 2005), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within <=2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible.

  18. Evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater recharged by cyclones and groundwater age estimations using the 14C statistical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, K. T.; Han, L. F.; Cendón, D. I.; Crawford, J.; Hankin, S.; Peterson, M.; Hollins, S. E.

    2018-01-01

    The Canning Basin is the largest sedimentary basin in Western Australia and is located in one of the most cyclone prone regions of Australia. Despite its importance as a future resource, limited groundwater data is available for the Basin. The main aims of this paper are to provide a detailed understanding of the source of groundwater recharge, the chemical evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and provide groundwater age estimations using radiocarbon (14CDIC). To do this we combine hydrochemical and isotopic techniques to investigate the type of precipitation that recharge the aquifer and identify the carbon processes influencing 14CDIC, δ13CDIC, and [DIC]. This enables us to select an appropriate model for calculating radiocarbon ages in groundwater. The aquifer was found to be recharged by precipitation originating from tropical cyclones imparting lower average δ2H and δ18O values in groundwater (-56.9‰ and -7.87‰, respectively). Water recharges the soil zone rapidly after these events and the groundwater undergoes silicate mineral weathering and clay mineral transformation processes. It was also found that partial carbonate dissolution processes occur within the saturated zone under closed system conditions. Additionally, the processes could be lumped into a pseudo-first-order process and the age could be estimated using the 14C statistical approach. In the single-sample-based 14C models, 14C0 is the initial 14CDIC value used in the decay equation that considers only 14C decay rate. A major advantage of using the statistical approach is that both 14C decay and geochemical processes that cause the decrease in 14CDIC are accounted for in the calculation. The 14CDIC values of groundwater were found to increase from 89 pmc in the south east to around 16 pmc along the groundwater flow path towards the coast indicating ages ranging from modern to 5.3 ka. A test of the sensitivity of this method showed that a ∼15% error could be found for the oldest

  19. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in young Australian women is higher than previously estimated: independent estimates from a nationally representative mobile phone survey.

    PubMed

    Brotherton, Julia M L; Liu, Bette; Donovan, Basil; Kaldor, John M; Saville, Marion

    2014-01-23

    Accurate estimates of coverage are essential for estimating the population effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Australia has a purpose built National HPV Vaccination Program Register for monitoring coverage, however notification of doses administered to young women in the community during the national catch-up program (2007-2009) was not compulsory. In 2011, we undertook a population-based mobile phone survey of young women to independently estimate HPV vaccination coverage. Randomly generated mobile phone numbers were dialed to recruit women aged 22-30 (age eligible for HPV vaccination) to complete a computer assisted telephone interview. Consent was sought to validate self reported HPV vaccination status against the national register. Coverage rates were calculated based on self report and weighted to the age and state of residence structure of the Australian female population. These were compared with coverage estimates from the register using Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated resident populations as the denominator. Among the 1379 participants, the national estimate for self reported HPV vaccination coverage for doses 1/2/3, respectively, weighted for age and state of residence, was 64/59/53%. This compares with coverage of 55/45/32% and 49/40/28% based on register records, using 2007 and 2011 population data as the denominators respectively. Some significant differences in coverage between the states were identified. 20% (223) of women returned a consent form allowing validation of doses against the register and provider records: among these women 85.6% (538) of self reported doses were confirmed. We confirmed that coverage rates for young women vaccinated in the community (at age 18-26 years) are underestimated by the national register and that under-notification is greater for second and third doses. Using 2011 population estimates, rather than estimates contemporaneous with the program rollout, reduces register-based coverage

  20. Muscle parameters estimation based on biplanar radiography.

    PubMed

    Dubois, G; Rouch, P; Bonneau, D; Gennisson, J L; Skalli, W

    2016-11-01

    The evaluation of muscle and joint forces in vivo is still a challenge. Musculo-Skeletal (musculo-skeletal) models are used to compute forces based on movement analysis. Most of them are built from a scaled-generic model based on cadaver measurements, which provides a low level of personalization, or from Magnetic Resonance Images, which provide a personalized model in lying position. This study proposed an original two steps method to access a subject-specific musculo-skeletal model in 30 min, which is based solely on biplanar X-Rays. First, the subject-specific 3D geometry of bones and skin envelopes were reconstructed from biplanar X-Rays radiography. Then, 2200 corresponding control points were identified between a reference model and the subject-specific X-Rays model. Finally, the shape of 21 lower limb muscles was estimated using a non-linear transformation between the control points in order to fit the muscle shape of the reference model to the X-Rays model. Twelfth musculo-skeletal models were reconstructed and compared to their reference. The muscle volume was not accurately estimated with a standard deviation (SD) ranging from 10 to 68%. However, this method provided an accurate estimation the muscle line of action with a SD of the length difference lower than 2% and a positioning error lower than 20 mm. The moment arm was also well estimated with SD lower than 15% for most muscle, which was significantly better than scaled-generic model for most muscle. This method open the way to a quick modeling method for gait analysis based on biplanar radiography.

  1. Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

    2003-12-01

    The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

  2. Population-based estimates of survival and cost for metastatic melanoma.

    PubMed

    McCarron, C E; Ernst, S; Cao, J Q; Zaric, G S

    2015-10-01

    Fewer than half of all patients with metastatic melanoma survive more than 1 year. Standard treatments have had little success, but recent therapeutic advances offer the potential for an improved prognosis. In the present study, we used population-based administrative data to establish real-world baseline estimates of survival outcomes and costs against which new treatments can be compared. Data from administrative databases and patient registries were used to find a cohort of patients with metastatic melanoma in Ontario. To identify individuals most likely to receive new treatments, we focused on patients eligible for second-line treatment. The identified cohort had two characteristics: no surgical resection beyond primary skin excision, and receipt of first-line systemic therapy. Patient characteristics, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and mean costs are reported. Of the 33,585 patients diagnosed with melanoma in Ontario from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2010, 278 met the study inclusion criteria. Average age was 63 years, and 62% of the patients were men. Overall survival was estimated to be 19%, 12%, and 6% at 12, 24, and 60 months respectively. Mean survival time was 11.5 months, and mean cost was $30,685. Our baseline estimates indicate that survival outcomes are poor and costs are high for patients receiving standard treatment. Understanding the relative improvement accruing from any new treatment requires a comparison with the existing standard of care.

  3. Estimating monthly temperature using point based interpolation techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saaban, Azizan; Mah Hashim, Noridayu; Murat, Rusdi Indra Zuhdi

    2013-04-01

    This paper discusses the use of point based interpolation to estimate the value of temperature at an unallocated meteorology stations in Peninsular Malaysia using data of year 2010 collected from the Malaysian Meteorology Department. Two point based interpolation methods which are Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) are considered. The accuracy of the methods is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that RBF with thin plate spline model is suitable to be used as temperature estimator for the months of January and December, while RBF with multiquadric model is suitable to estimate the temperature for the rest of the months.

  4. Three-dimensional analysis of third molar development to estimate age of majority.

    PubMed

    Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; Treviño-Tijerina, María Concepción; González-Herrera, Lucas; Sánchez, Belén; González-Ramírez, Amanda Rocío; Valenzuela, Aurora

    2017-09-01

    Third molars are one of the few biological markers available for age estimation in undocumented juveniles close the legal age of majority, assuming an age of 18years as the most frequent legal demarcation between child and adult status. To obtain more accurate visualization and evaluation of third molar mineralization patterns from computed tomography images, a new software application, DentaVol©, was developed. Third molar mineralization according to qualitative (Demirjian's maturational stage) and quantitative parameters (third molar volume) of dental development was assessed in multi-slice helical computed tomography images of both maxillary arches displayed by DentaVol© from 135 individuals (62 females and 73 males) aged between 14 and 23years. Intra- and inter-observer agreement values were remarkably high for both evaluation procedures and for all third molars. A linear correlation between third molar mineralization and chronological age was found, with third molar maturity occurring earlier in males than in females. Assessment of dental development with both procedures, by using DentaVol© software, can be considered a good indicator of age of majority (18years or older) in all third molars. Our results indicated that virtual computed tomography imaging can be considered a valid alternative to orthopantomography for evaluations of third molar mineralization, and therefore a complementary tool for determining the age of majority. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Physical Activity Is not Associated with Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate among Young and Middle-Aged Adults: Results from the Population-Based Longitudinal Doetinchem Study

    PubMed Central

    Herber-Gast, Gerrie-Cor M.; Hulsegge, Gerben; Hartman, Linda; Verschuren, W. M. Monique; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W.

    2015-01-01

    There is debate as to whether physical inactivity is associated with reduced kidney function. We studied the prospective association of (changes in) physical activity with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in adult men and women. We included 3,935 participants aged 26 to 65 years from the Doetinchem Cohort study, examined every 5 years for 15 years. Physical activity was assessed at each round using the Cambridge Physical Activity Index. Using the CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) equation, GFR was estimated from routinely measured cystatin C concentrations, examining all available samples per participant in one assay run. We determined the association between 1) physical activity and eGFR and 2) 5-year changes in physical activity (becoming inactive, staying inactive, staying active, becoming active) and eGFR, using time-lagged generalized estimating equation analyses. At baseline, 3.6% of the participants were inactive, 18.5% moderately inactive, 26.0% moderately active, and 51.9% active. The mean (± SD) eGFR was 107.9 (± 14.5) mL/min per 1.73 m2. Neither physical activity nor 5-year changes in physical activity were associated with eGFR at the subsequent round. The multivariate adjusted βeGFR was 0.57 mL/min per 1.73 m2 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) -1.70, 0.56) for inactive compared to active participants. Studying changes in physical activity between rounds, the adjusted βeGFR was -1.10 mL/min per 1.73 m2 (95% CI -4.50, 2.30) for those who stayed inactive compared with participants who became active. Physical activity was not associated with eGFR in this population-based study of adults. PMID:26465150

  6. Consequences of Secondary Calibrations on Divergence Time Estimates.

    PubMed

    Schenk, John J

    2016-01-01

    Secondary calibrations (calibrations based on the results of previous molecular dating studies) are commonly applied in divergence time analyses in groups that lack fossil data; however, the consequences of applying secondary calibrations in a relaxed-clock approach are not fully understood. I tested whether applying the posterior estimate from a primary study as a prior distribution in a secondary study results in consistent age and uncertainty estimates. I compared age estimates from simulations with 100 randomly replicated secondary trees. On average, the 95% credible intervals of node ages for secondary estimates were significantly younger and narrower than primary estimates. The primary and secondary age estimates were significantly different in 97% of the replicates after Bonferroni corrections. Greater error in magnitude was associated with deeper than shallower nodes, but the opposite was found when standardized by median node age, and a significant positive relationship was determined between the number of tips/age of secondary trees and the total amount of error. When two secondary calibrated nodes were analyzed, estimates remained significantly different, and although the minimum and median estimates were associated with less error, maximum age estimates and credible interval widths had greater error. The shape of the prior also influenced error, in which applying a normal, rather than uniform, prior distribution resulted in greater error. Secondary calibrations, in summary, lead to a false impression of precision and the distribution of age estimates shift away from those that would be inferred by the primary analysis. These results suggest that secondary calibrations should not be applied as the only source of calibration in divergence time analyses that test time-dependent hypotheses until the additional error associated with secondary calibrations is more properly modeled to take into account increased uncertainty in age estimates.

  7. Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.

    1994-06-01

    In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performancemore » to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed.« less

  8. Sex- and Age-Adjusted Population Analysis of Prevalence Estimates for Hidradenitis Suppurativa in the United States.

    PubMed

    Garg, Amit; Kirby, Joslyn S; Lavian, Jonathan; Lin, Gloria; Strunk, Andrew

    2017-08-01

    The true prevalence of hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is unknown. To establish standardized overall and group-specific prevalence estimates for HS in the United States. This retrospective analysis included a demographically heterogeneous population-based sample of more than 48 million unique patients across all US census regions. As of October 27, 2016, a total of 47 690 patients with HS were identified using electronic health record data. Standardized overall point prevalence for HS and sex-, age-, and race-specific prevalence estimates of HS in the general US population. Of the 47 690 patients with HS (26.2% men and 73.8% women), the overall HS prevalence in the US population sample was 0.10%, or 98 per 100 000 persons (95% CI, 97-99 per 100 000 persons). The adjusted prevalence in women was 137 per 100 000 (95% CI, 136-139 per 100 000), more than twice that of men (58 per 100 000; 95% CI, 57-59 per 100 000; P < .001). The prevalence of HS was highest among patients aged 30 to 39 years (172 per 100 000; 95% CI, 169-275 per 100 000) compared with all other age groups (range, 15-150 per 100 000; P < .001). Adjusted HS prevalences among African American (296 per 100 000; 95% CI, 291-300 per 100 000) and biracial (218 per 100 000; 95% CI, 202-235 per 100 000) patients were more than 3-fold and 2-fold greater, respectively, than that among white patients (95 per 100 000; 95% CI, 94-96 per 100 000; P < .001). Hidradenitis suppurativa is an uncommon, but not rare, disease in the United States that disproportionately affects female patients, young adults, and African American and biracial patients.

  9. Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

  10. Toward a Self-Updating Platform for Estimating Rates of Speciation and Migration, Ages, and Relationships of Taxa

    PubMed Central

    Hettling, Hannes; Condamine, Fabien L.; Vos, Karin; Nilsson, R. Henrik; Sanderson, Michael J.; Sauquet, Hervé; Scharn, Ruud; Silvestro, Daniele; Töpel, Mats; Bacon, Christine D.; Oxelman, Bengt; Vos, Rutger A.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Rapidly growing biological data—including molecular sequences and fossils—hold an unprecedented potential to reveal how evolutionary processes generate and maintain biodiversity. However, researchers often have to develop their own idiosyncratic workflows to integrate and analyze these data for reconstructing time-calibrated phylogenies. In addition, divergence times estimated under different methods and assumptions, and based on data of various quality and reliability, should not be combined without proper correction. Here we introduce a modular framework termed SUPERSMART (Self-Updating Platform for Estimating Rates of Speciation and Migration, Ages, and Relationships of Taxa), and provide a proof of concept for dealing with the moving targets of evolutionary and biogeographical research. This framework assembles comprehensive data sets of molecular and fossil data for any taxa and infers dated phylogenies using robust species tree methods, also allowing for the inclusion of genomic data produced through next-generation sequencing techniques. We exemplify the application of our method by presenting phylogenetic and dating analyses for the mammal order Primates and for the plant family Arecaceae (palms). We believe that this framework will provide a valuable tool for a wide range of hypothesis-driven research questions in systematics, biogeography, and evolution. SUPERSMART will also accelerate the inference of a “Dated Tree of Life” where all node ages are directly comparable. PMID:27616324

  11. Preterm or not--an evaluation of estimates of gestational age in a cohort of women from Rural Papua New Guinea.

    PubMed

    Karl, Stephan; Li Wai Suen, Connie S N; Unger, Holger W; Ome-Kaius, Maria; Mola, Glen; White, Lisa; Wangnapi, Regina A; Rogerson, Stephen J; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of accurate gestational age is required for comprehensive pregnancy care and is an essential component of research evaluating causes of preterm birth. In industrialised countries gestational age is determined with the help of fetal biometry in early pregnancy. Lack of ultrasound and late presentation to antenatal clinic limits this practice in low-resource settings. Instead, clinical estimators of gestational age are used, but their accuracy remains a matter of debate. In a cohort of 688 singleton pregnancies from rural Papua New Guinea, delivery gestational age was calculated from Ballard score, last menstrual period, symphysis-pubis fundal height at first visit and quickening as well as mid- and late pregnancy fetal biometry. Published models using sequential fundal height measurements and corrected last menstrual period to estimate gestational age were also tested. Novel linear models that combined clinical measurements for gestational age estimation were developed. Predictions were compared with the reference early pregnancy ultrasound (<25 gestational weeks) using correlation, regression and Bland-Altman analyses and ranked for their capability to predict preterm birth using the harmonic mean of recall and precision (F-measure). Average bias between reference ultrasound and clinical methods ranged from 0-11 days (95% confidence levels: 14-42 days). Preterm birth was best predicted by mid-pregnancy ultrasound (F-measure: 0.72), and neuromuscular Ballard score provided the least reliable preterm birth prediction (F-measure: 0.17). The best clinical methods to predict gestational age and preterm birth were last menstrual period and fundal height (F-measures 0.35). A linear model combining both measures improved prediction of preterm birth (F-measure: 0.58). Estimation of gestational age without ultrasound is prone to significant error. In the absence of ultrasound facilities, last menstrual period and fundal height are among the more reliable clinical

  12. Age determination of raccoons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grau, G.A.; Sanderson, G.C.; Rogers, J.P.

    1970-01-01

    Age criteria, based on 61 skulls and eye lenses from 103 known-age captives, are described for separating raccoons (Procyon lotor) into eight age-classes as follows: young-of-the-year, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6-7, > 7 years. Criteria studied were eye lens nitrogen, cranial suture closure, tooth wear and incisor cementum layers. Lens nitrogen increased rapidly up to 12 months of age, but at much reduced rate thereafter. Total lens nitrogen was useful only in separating young-of-the-year from adults. The closure sequence for five cranial sutures accurately divided the total known-age sample of males into seven groups, and the adults into five groups. The tooth wear criteria divided the known-age sample into five relative age groups, but aging of individuals by this method was inaccurate. Histological sectioning of known-age teeth was the best method of observing layering in the cementum tissue. The technique of basing estimation of age on cementum ring counts, although subjective, was accurate for aging individuals through their fourth year but tended to underestimate the age of animals over 4 years old. However, suture closure or tooth wear can be used to identify males over 4 years old. In field studies, technical difficulties limit the utility of age estimation by cementum layers. Maximum root thickness of the lower canine was accurate in determining the sex of individuals from 5 months to ,at least 48 months of age.

  13. Skeletal age estimation for forensic purposes: A comparison of GP, TW2 and TW3 methods on an Italian sample.

    PubMed

    Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Ricciardi, Federico; Focardi, Martina; Piredda, Valentina; Mazzeo, Elena; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

    2014-05-01

    Paediatricians, radiologists, anthropologists and medico-legal specialists are often called as experts in order to provide age estimation (AE) for forensic purposes. The literature recommends performing the X-rays of the left hand and wrist (HW-XR) for skeletal age estimation. The method most frequently employed is the Greulich and Pyle (GP) method. In addition, the so-called bone-specific techniques are also applied including the method of Tanner Whitehouse (TW) in the latest versions TW2 and TW3. To compare skeletal age and chronological age in a large sample of children and adolescents using GP, TW2 and TW3 methods in order to establish which of these is the most reliable for forensic purposes. The sample consisted of 307 HW-XRs of Italian children or adolescents, 145 females and 162 males aged between 6 and 20 years. The radiographies were scored according to the GP, TW2RUS and TW3RUS methods by one investigator. The results' reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient. Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Student t-test were performed to search for significant differences between skeletal and chronological ages. The distributions of the differences between estimated and chronological age, by means of boxplots, show how median differences for TW3 and GP methods are generally very close to 0. Hypothesis tests' results were obtained, with respect to the sex, both for the entire group of individuals and people grouped by age. Results show no significant differences among estimated and chronological age for TW3 and, to a lesser extent, GP. The TW2 proved to be the worst of the three methods. Our results support the conclusion that the TW2 method is not reliable for AE for forensic purpose. The GP and TW3 methods have proved to be reliable in males. For females, the best method was found to be TW3. When performing forensic age estimation in subjects around 14 years of age, it could be advisable to use and associate the TW3 and GP methods. Copyright

  14. Oxidative DNA damage background estimated by a system model of base excision repair

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sokhansanj, B A; Wilson, III, D M

    Human DNA can be damaged by natural metabolism through free radical production. It has been suggested that the equilibrium between innate damage and cellular DNA repair results in an oxidative DNA damage background that potentially contributes to disease and aging. Efforts to quantitatively characterize the human oxidative DNA damage background level based on measuring 8-oxoguanine lesions as a biomarker have led to estimates varying over 3-4 orders of magnitude, depending on the method of measurement. We applied a previously developed and validated quantitative pathway model of human DNA base excision repair, integrating experimentally determined endogenous damage rates and model parametersmore » from multiple sources. Our estimates of at most 100 8-oxoguanine lesions per cell are consistent with the low end of data from biochemical and cell biology experiments, a result robust to model limitations and parameter variation. Our results show the power of quantitative system modeling to interpret composite experimental data and make biologically and physiologically relevant predictions for complex human DNA repair pathway mechanisms and capacity.« less

  15. Models of Quantitative Estimations: Rule-Based and Exemplar-Based Processes Compared

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Helversen, Bettina; Rieskamp, Jorg

    2009-01-01

    The cognitive processes underlying quantitative estimations vary. Past research has identified task-contingent changes between rule-based and exemplar-based processes (P. Juslin, L. Karlsson, & H. Olsson, 2008). B. von Helversen and J. Rieskamp (2008), however, proposed a simple rule-based model--the mapping model--that outperformed the…

  16. Development of the Quality of Australian Nursing Documentation in Aged Care (QANDAC) instrument to assess paper-based and electronic resident records.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ning; Björvell, Catrin; Hailey, David; Yu, Ping

    2014-12-01

    To develop an Australian nursing documentation in aged care (Quality of Australian Nursing Documentation in Aged Care (QANDAC)) instrument to measure the quality of paper-based and electronic resident records. The instrument was based on the nursing process model and on three attributes of documentation quality identified in a systematic review. The development process involved five phases following approaches to designing criterion-referenced measures. The face and content validities and the inter-rater reliability of the instrument were estimated using a focus group approach and consensus model. The instrument contains 34 questions in three sections: completion of nursing history and assessment, description of care process and meeting the requirements of data entry. Estimates of the validity and inter-rater reliability of the instrument gave satisfactory results. The QANDAC instrument may be a useful audit tool for quality improvement and research in aged care documentation. © 2013 ACOTA.

  17. The age estimation practice related to illegal unaccompanied minors immigration in Italy.

    PubMed

    Pradella, F; Pinchi, V; Focardi, M; Grifoni, R; Palandri, M; Norelli, G A

    2017-12-01

    The migrants arrived to the Italian coasts in 2016 were 181.436, 18% more than the previous year and 6% more than the highest number ever since. An "unaccompanied minor" (UAM) is a third-country national or a stateless person under eighteen years of age, who arrives on the territory of the Member State unaccompanied by an adult responsible for him/her whether by law or by the practice of the Member State concerned, and for as long as he or she is not effectively taken into the care of such a person; it includes a minor who is left unaccompanied after he/she entered the territory of the Member States. As many as 95.985 UAMs applied for international protection in an EU member country just in 2015, almost four times the number registered in the previous year. The UAMs arrived in Italy were 28.283 in 2016; 94% of them were males, 92% unaccompanied, 8% of them under 15; the 53,6% is 17; the individuals between 16 and 17 are instead the 82%. Many of them (50%), 6561 in 2016, escaped from the sanctuaries, thus avoiding to be formally identified and registered in Italy in the attempt to reach more easily northern Europe countries, since The Dublin Regulations (2003) state that the asylum application should be held in the EU country of entrance or where parents reside. The age assessment procedures can therefore be considered as a relevant task that weighs in on the shoulders of the forensic experts with all the related issues and the coming of age is the important threshold. In the EU laws on asylum, the minors are considered as one of the groups of vulnerable persons towards whom Member States have specific obligations. A proper EU common formal regulation in the matter of age estimation procedures still lacks. According to the Italian legal framework in the matter, a medical examination should have been always performed but a new law completely changed the approach to the procedures of age estimation of the migrant (excluding the criminal cases) with a better adherence

  18. Sociological effects on vocal aging: Age related F0 effects in two languages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagao, Kyoko

    2005-04-01

    Listeners can estimate the age of a speaker fairly accurately from their speech (Ptacek and Sander, 1966). It is generally considered that this perception is based on physiologically determined aspects of the speech. However, the degree to which it is due to conventional sociolinguistic aspects of speech is unknown. The current study examines the degree to which fundamental frequency (F0) changes due to advanced aging across two language groups of speakers. It also examines the degree to which the speakers associate these changes with aging in a voice disguising task. Thirty native speakers each of English and Japanese, taken from three age groups, read a target phrase embedded in a carrier sentence in their native language. Each speaker also read the sentence pretending to be 20-years younger or 20-years older than their own age. Preliminary analysis of eighteen Japanese speakers indicates that the mean and maximum F0 values increase when the speakers pretended to be younger than when they pretended to be older. Some previous studies on age perception, however, suggested that F0 has minor effects on listeners' age estimation. The acoustic results will also be discussed in conjunction with the results of the listeners' age estimation of the speakers.

  19. Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013.

    PubMed

    Tate, Jacqueline E; Burton, Anthony H; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Parashar, Umesh D

    2016-05-01

    Rotavirus vaccine is recommended for routine use in all countries globally. To facilitate decision making on rotavirus vaccine adoption by countries, help donors prioritize investments in health interventions, and monitor vaccine impact, we estimated rotavirus mortality for children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013. We searched PubMed using the keyword "rotavirus" to identify studies that met each of the following criteria: data collection midpoint in year 1998 or later, study period of a 12-month increment, and detection of rotavirus infection by enzyme immunoassay in at least 100 children <5 years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea and systematically enrolled through active surveillance. We also included data from countries that participated in the World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated rotavirus surveillance network between 2008 and 2013 that met these criteria. To predict the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus, we constructed a multiple linear regression model. To determine the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013, we multiplied annual, country-specific estimates of the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus from the regression model by the annual number of WHO-estimated child deaths caused by diarrhea in each country. Globally, we estimated that the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age declined from 528 000 (range, 465 000-591 000) in 2000 to 215 000 (range, 197 000-233 000) in 2013. The predicted annual rotavirus detection rate from these studies declined slightly over time from 42.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.4%-47.5%) in 2000 to 37.3% (95% CI, 34.2%-40.5%) in 2013 globally. In 2013, an estimated 47 100 rotavirus deaths occurred in India, 22% of all rotavirus deaths that occurred globally. Four countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Democratic Republic of Congo) accounted for approximately half (49%) of all estimated rotavirus deaths in 2013. While rotavirus vaccine had been

  20. A Channelization-Based DOA Estimation Method for Wideband Signals

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Rui; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method for wideband signals with sensor arrays. The proposed method splits the wideband array output into multiple frequency sub-channels and estimates the signal parameters using a digital channelization receiver. Based on the output sub-channels, a channelization-based incoherent signal subspace method (Channelization-ISM) and a channelization-based test of orthogonality of projected subspaces method (Channelization-TOPS) are proposed. Channelization-ISM applies narrowband signal subspace methods on each sub-channel independently. Then the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of the estimated DOAs from each sub-channel gives the final result. Channelization-TOPS measures the orthogonality between the signal and the noise subspaces of the output sub-channels to estimate DOAs. The proposed channelization-based method isolates signals in different bandwidths reasonably and improves the output SNR. It outperforms the conventional ISM and TOPS methods on estimation accuracy and dynamic range, especially in real environments. Besides, the parallel processing architecture makes it easy to implement on hardware. A wideband digital array radar (DAR) using direct wideband radio frequency (RF) digitization is presented. Experiments carried out in a microwave anechoic chamber with the wideband DAR are presented to demonstrate the performance. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:27384566

  1. The Hercules-Lyra association revisited. New age estimation and multiplicity study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisenbeiss, T.; Ammler-von Eiff, M.; Roell, T.; Mugrauer, M.; Adam, Ch.; Neuhäuser, R.; Schmidt, T. O. B.; Bedalov, A.

    2013-08-01

    Context. The Hercules-Lyra association, a purported nearby young moving group, contains a few tens of zero age main sequence stars of spectral types F to M. The existence and the properties of the Her-Lyr association are controversial and have been discussed in the literature. Aims: The present work reassesses the properties and the member list of the Her-Lyr association based on kinematics and age indicators. Many objects form multiple systems or have low-mass companions and so we need to properly account for multiplicity. Methods: We use our own new imaging observations and archival data to identify multiple systems. The colors and magnitudes of kinematic candidates are compared to isochrones. We derive further information on the age based on Li depletion, rotation, and coronal and chromospheric activity. A set of canonical members is identified to infer mean properties. Membership criteria are derived from the mean properties and used to discard non-members. Results: The candidates selected from the literature belong to 35 stellar systems, 42.9% of which are multiple. Four multiple systems (V538 Aur, DX Leo, V382 Ser, and HH Leo) are confirmed in this work by common proper motion. An orbital solution is presented for the binary system which forms a hierarchical triple with HH Leo. Indeed, a group of candidates displays signatures of youth. Seven canonical members are identified The distribution of Li equivalent widths of canonical Her-Lyr members is spread widely and is similar to that of the Pleiades and the UMa group. Gyrochronology gives an age of 257 ± 46 Myr which is roughly in between the ages of the Pleiades and the Ursa Major group. The measures of chromospheric and coronal activity support the young age. Four membership criteria are presented based on kinematics, lithium equivalent width, chromospheric activity, and gyrochronological age. In total, eleven stars are identified as certain members including co-moving objects plus additional 23 possible

  2. Photoanthropometric face iridial proportions for age estimation: An investigation using features selected via a joint mutual information criterion.

    PubMed

    Borges, Díbio L; Vidal, Flávio B; Flores, Marta R P; Melani, Rodolfo F H; Guimarães, Marco A; Machado, Carlos E P

    2018-03-01

    Age assessment from images is of high interest in the forensic community because of the necessity to establish formal protocols to identify child pornography, child missing and abuses where visual evidences are the mostly admissible. Recently, photoanthropometric methods have been found useful for age estimation correlating facial proportions in image databases with samples of some age groups. Notwithstanding the advances, newer facial features and further analysis are needed to improve accuracy and establish larger applicability. In this investigation, frontal images of 1000 individuals (500 females, 500 males), equally distributed in five age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, 22 years old) were used in a 10 fold cross-validated experiment for three age thresholds classifications (<10, <14, <18 years old). A set of novel 40 features, based on a relation between landmark distances and the iris diameter, is proposed and joint mutual information is used to select the most relevant and complementary features for the classification task. In a civil image identification database with diverse ancestry, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to verify accuracy, and the resultant AUCs achieved 0.971, 0.969, and 0.903 for the age classifications (<10, <14, <18 years old), respectively. These results add support to continuing research in age assessment from images using the metric approach. Still, larger samples are necessary to evaluate reliability in extensive conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Accurate aging of juvenile salmonids using fork lengths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sethi, Suresh; Gerken, Jonathon; Ashline, Joshua

    2017-01-01

    Juvenile salmon life history strategies, survival, and habitat interactions may vary by age cohort. However, aging individual juvenile fish using scale reading is time consuming and can be error prone. Fork length data are routinely measured while sampling juvenile salmonids. We explore the performance of aging juvenile fish based solely on fork length data, using finite Gaussian mixture models to describe multimodal size distributions and estimate optimal age-discriminating length thresholds. Fork length-based ages are compared against a validation set of juvenile coho salmon, Oncorynchus kisutch, aged by scales. Results for juvenile coho salmon indicate greater than 95% accuracy can be achieved by aging fish using length thresholds estimated from mixture models. Highest accuracy is achieved when aged fish are compared to length thresholds generated from samples from the same drainage, time of year, and habitat type (lentic versus lotic), although relatively high aging accuracy can still be achieved when thresholds are extrapolated to fish from populations in different years or drainages. Fork length-based aging thresholds are applicable for taxa for which multiple age cohorts coexist sympatrically. Where applicable, the method of aging individual fish is relatively quick to implement and can avoid ager interpretation bias common in scale-based aging.

  4. Estimating power capability of aged lithium-ion batteries in presence of communication delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fridholm, Björn; Wik, Torsten; Kuusisto, Hannes; Klintberg, Anton

    2018-04-01

    Efficient control of electrified powertrains requires accurate estimation of the power capability of the battery for the next few seconds into the future. When implemented in a vehicle, the power estimation is part of a control loop that may contain several networked controllers which introduces time delays that may jeopardize stability. In this article, we present and evaluate an adaptive power estimation method that robustly can handle uncertain health status and time delays. A theoretical analysis shows that stability of the closed loop system can be lost if the resistance of the model is under-estimated. Stability can, however, be restored by filtering the estimated power at the expense of slightly reduced bandwidth of the signal. The adaptive algorithm is experimentally validated in lab tests using an aged lithium-ion cell subject to a high power load profile in temperatures from -20 to +25 °C. The upper voltage limit was set to 4.15 V and the lower voltage limit to 2.6 V, where significant non-linearities are occurring and the validity of the model is limited. After an initial transient when the model parameters are adapted, the prediction accuracy is within ± 2 % of the actually available power.

  5. Female genital mutilation/cutting in Italy: an enhanced estimation for first generation migrant women based on 2016 survey data.

    PubMed

    Ortensi, Livia Elisa; Farina, Patrizia; Leye, Els

    2018-01-12

    Migration flows of women from Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting practicing countries have generated a need for data on women potentially affected by Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting. This paper presents enhanced estimates for foreign-born women and asylum seekers in Italy in 2016, with the aim of supporting resource planning and policy making, and advancing the methodological debate on estimation methods. The estimates build on the most recent methodological development in Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting direct and indirect estimation for Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting non-practicing countries. Direct estimation of prevalence was performed for 9 communities using the results of the survey FGM-Prev, held in Italy in 2016. Prevalence for communities not involved in the FGM-Prev survey was estimated using to the 'extrapolation-of-FGM/C countries prevalence data method' with corrections according to the selection hypothesis. It is estimated that 60 to 80 thousand foreign-born women aged 15 and over with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting are present in Italy in 2016. We also estimated the presence of around 11 to 13 thousand cut women aged 15 and over among asylum seekers to Italy in 2014-2016. Due to the long established presence of female migrants from some practicing communities Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is emerging as an issue also among women aged 60 and over from selected communities. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is an additional source of concern for slightly more than 60% of women seeking asylum. Reliable estimates on Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting at country level are important for evidence-based policy making and service planning. This study suggests that indirect estimations cannot fully replace direct estimations, even if corrections for migrant socioeconomic selection can be implemented to reduce the bias.

  6. Fine-tuning satellite-based rainfall estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harsa, Hastuadi; Buono, Agus; Hidayat, Rahmat; Achyar, Jaumil; Noviati, Sri; Kurniawan, Roni; Praja, Alfan S.

    2018-05-01

    Rainfall datasets are available from various sources, including satellite estimates and ground observation. The locations of ground observation scatter sparsely. Therefore, the use of satellite estimates is advantageous, because satellite estimates can provide data on places where the ground observations do not present. However, in general, the satellite estimates data contain bias, since they are product of algorithms that transform the sensors response into rainfall values. Another cause may come from the number of ground observations used by the algorithms as the reference in determining the rainfall values. This paper describe the application of bias correction method to modify the satellite-based dataset by adding a number of ground observation locations that have not been used before by the algorithm. The bias correction was performed by utilizing Quantile Mapping procedure between ground observation data and satellite estimates data. Since Quantile Mapping required mean and standard deviation of both the reference and the being-corrected data, thus the Inverse Distance Weighting scheme was applied beforehand to the mean and standard deviation of the observation data in order to provide a spatial composition of them, which were originally scattered. Therefore, it was possible to provide a reference data point at the same location with that of the satellite estimates. The results show that the new dataset have statistically better representation of the rainfall values recorded by the ground observation than the previous dataset.

  7. Childhood Estimates of Glomerular Filtration Rate Based on Creatinine and Cystatin C: Importance of Body Composition.

    PubMed

    Miliku, Kozeta; Bakker, Hanneke; Dorresteijn, Eiske M; Cransberg, Karlien; Franco, Oscar H; Felix, Janine F; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

    2017-01-01

    Creatinine and cystatin C concentrations are commonly used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in clinical practice and epidemiological studies. To estimate the influence of different body composition measures on eGFR from creatinine and cystatin C blood concentrations, we compared the associations of different anthropometric and body composition measures with eGFR derived from creatinine (eGFRcreat) and cystatin C (eGFRcystC) blood concentrations. In a population-based cohort study among 4,305 children aged 6.0 years (95% range 5.7-8.0), we measured weight and height and calculated body mass index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA), and lean and fat mass using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. At the same age, we measured creatinine and cystatin C blood concentrations and estimated the GFR. Correlation between eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C concentrations was r = 0.40 (p value <0.01). Higher BMI was associated with lower eGFRcystC but not with eGFRcreat. Higher BSA was associated with higher eGFRcreat and lower eGFRcystC (p value <0.05). Lean and fat mass percentages were associated with eGFRcreat but not with eGFRcystC. Our findings suggest that both eGFRcreat and eGFRcystC are influenced by BMI and BSA. eGFRcreat is more strongly influenced by body composition than eGFRcystC. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. A geographic information system-based method for estimating cancer rates in non-census defined geographical areas.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Vincent L; Boylan, Emma E; Pugach, Oksana; Mclafferty, Sara L; Tossas-Milligan, Katherine Y; Watson, Karriem S; Winn, Robert A

    2017-10-01

    To address locally relevant cancer-related health issues, health departments frequently need data beyond that contained in standard census area-based statistics. We describe a geographic information system-based method for calculating age-standardized cancer incidence rates in non-census defined geographical areas using publically available data. Aggregated records of cancer cases diagnosed from 2009 through 2013 in each of Chicago's 77 census-defined community areas were obtained from the Illinois State Cancer Registry. Areal interpolation through dasymetric mapping of census blocks was used to redistribute populations and case counts from community areas to Chicago's 50 politically defined aldermanic wards, and ward-level age-standardized 5-year cumulative incidence rates were calculated. Potential errors in redistributing populations between geographies were limited to <1.5% of the total population, and agreement between our ward population estimates and those from a frequently cited reference set of estimates was high (Pearson correlation r = 0.99, mean difference = -4 persons). A map overlay of safety-net primary care clinic locations and ward-level incidence rates for advanced-staged cancers revealed potential pathways for prevention. Areal interpolation through dasymetric mapping can estimate cancer rates in non-census defined geographies. This can address gaps in local cancer-related health data, inform health resource advocacy, and guide community-centered cancer prevention and control.

  9. Accurate position estimation methods based on electrical impedance tomography measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Samuel; Sbarbaro, Daniel; Johansen, T. A.

    2017-08-01

    Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a technology that estimates the electrical properties of a body or a cross section. Its main advantages are its non-invasiveness, low cost and operation free of radiation. The estimation of the conductivity field leads to low resolution images compared with other technologies, and high computational cost. However, in many applications the target information lies in a low intrinsic dimensionality of the conductivity field. The estimation of this low-dimensional information is addressed in this work. It proposes optimization-based and data-driven approaches for estimating this low-dimensional information. The accuracy of the results obtained with these approaches depends on modelling and experimental conditions. Optimization approaches are sensitive to model discretization, type of cost function and searching algorithms. Data-driven methods are sensitive to the assumed model structure and the data set used for parameter estimation. The system configuration and experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), also have an impact on the results. In order to illustrate the effects of all these factors, the position estimation of a circular anomaly is addressed. Optimization methods based on weighted error cost functions and derivate-free optimization algorithms provided the best results. Data-driven approaches based on linear models provided, in this case, good estimates, but the use of nonlinear models enhanced the estimation accuracy. The results obtained by optimization-based algorithms were less sensitive to experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and SNR, than data-driven approaches. Position estimation mean squared errors for simulation and experimental conditions were more than twice for the optimization-based approaches compared with the data-driven ones. The experimental position estimation mean squared error of the data-driven models using a 16-electrode setup was less

  10. Improving cluster-based missing value estimation of DNA microarray data.

    PubMed

    Brás, Lígia P; Menezes, José C

    2007-06-01

    We present a modification of the weighted K-nearest neighbours imputation method (KNNimpute) for missing values (MVs) estimation in microarray data based on the reuse of estimated data. The method was called iterative KNN imputation (IKNNimpute) as the estimation is performed iteratively using the recently estimated values. The estimation efficiency of IKNNimpute was assessed under different conditions (data type, fraction and structure of missing data) by the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and the correlation coefficients between estimated and true values, and compared with that of other cluster-based estimation methods (KNNimpute and sequential KNN). We further investigated the influence of imputation on the detection of differentially expressed genes using SAM by examining the differentially expressed genes that are lost after MV estimation. The performance measures give consistent results, indicating that the iterative procedure of IKNNimpute can enhance the prediction ability of cluster-based methods in the presence of high missing rates, in non-time series experiments and in data sets comprising both time series and non-time series data, because the information of the genes having MVs is used more efficiently and the iterative procedure allows refining the MV estimates. More importantly, IKNN has a smaller detrimental effect on the detection of differentially expressed genes.

  11. Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Methods Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. Results We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Conclusions Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. PMID:21696598

  12. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-03-23

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one's thermal environment.

  13. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-01-01

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one’s thermal environment. PMID:27023538

  14. Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Xing, Yan; Chang, George J; Hu, Chung-Yuan; Askew, Robert L; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Lee, Jeffrey E; Mansfield, Paul F; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N

    2010-05-01

    Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision making. Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (1988-2000). By using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific, 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year after diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology. Five-year CS estimates for patients with stage I disease remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III, and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender, and race decreased over time. Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and nontreatment related life decisions. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

  15. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    PubMed

    Monson, Daniel H; Udevitz, Mark S; Jay, Chadwick V

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2) (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  16. Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  17. Estimating Age Ratios and Size of Pacific Walrus Herds on Coastal Haulouts using Video Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  18. Brief communication: the relation between standard error of the estimate and sample size of histomorphometric aging methods.

    PubMed

    Hennig, Cheryl; Cooper, David

    2011-08-01

    Histomorphometric aging methods report varying degrees of precision, measured through Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE). These techniques have been developed from variable samples sizes (n) and the impact of n on reported aging precision has not been rigorously examined in the anthropological literature. This brief communication explores the relation between n and SEE through a review of the literature (abstracts, articles, book chapters, theses, and dissertations), predictions based upon sampling theory and a simulation. Published SEE values for age prediction, derived from 40 studies, range from 1.51 to 16.48 years (mean 8.63; sd: 3.81 years). In general, these values are widely distributed for smaller samples and the distribution narrows as n increases--a pattern expected from sampling theory. For the two studies that have samples in excess of 200 individuals, the SEE values are very similar (10.08 and 11.10 years) with a mean of 10.59 years. Assuming this mean value is a 'true' characterization of the error at the population level, the 95% confidence intervals for SEE values from samples of 10, 50, and 150 individuals are on the order of ± 4.2, 1.7, and 1.0 years, respectively. While numerous sources of variation potentially affect the precision of different methods, the impact of sample size cannot be overlooked. The uncertainty associated with SEE values derived from smaller samples complicates the comparison of approaches based upon different methodology and/or skeletal elements. Meaningful comparisons require larger samples than have frequently been used and should ideally be based upon standardized samples. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  19. Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

  20. Dosimetric implications of age related glandular changes in screening mammography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckett, J. R.; Kotre, C. J.

    2000-03-01

    The UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme is currently organized to routinely screen women between the ages of 50 and 64, with screening for older women available on request. The lower end of this age range closely matches the median age for the menopause (51 years), during which significant changes in the composition of the breast are known to occur. In order to quantify the dosimetric effect of these changes, radiographic factors and compressed breast thickness data for a cohort of 1258 women aged between 35 and 79 undergoing breast screening mammography have been used to derive estimates of breast glandularity and mean glandular dose (MGD), and examine their variation with age. The variation of mean radiographic exposure factors with age is also investigated. The presence of a significant number of age trial women within the cohort allowed an extended age range to be studied. Estimates of MGD including corrections for breast glandularity based on compressed breast thickness only, compressed breast thickness and age and for each individual woman are compared with the MGD based on the conventional assumption of a 50:50 adipose/glandular composition. It has been found that the use of the conventional 50:50 assumption leads to overestimates of MGD of up to 13% over the age range considered. By using compressed breast thickness to estimate breast glandularity, this error range can be reduced to 8%, whilst age and compressed breast thickness based glandularity estimates result in an error range of 1%.

  1. Estimating Driving Performance Based on EEG Spectrum Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Ruei-Cheng; Jung, Tzyy-Ping; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Huang, Teng-Yi

    2005-12-01

    The growing number of traffic accidents in recent years has become a serious concern to society. Accidents caused by driver's drowsiness behind the steering wheel have a high fatality rate because of the marked decline in the driver's abilities of perception, recognition, and vehicle control abilities while sleepy. Preventing such accidents caused by drowsiness is highly desirable but requires techniques for continuously detecting, estimating, and predicting the level of alertness of drivers and delivering effective feedbacks to maintain their maximum performance. This paper proposes an EEG-based drowsiness estimation system that combines electroencephalogram (EEG) log subband power spectrum, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and linear regression models to indirectly estimate driver's drowsiness level in a virtual-reality-based driving simulator. Our results demonstrated that it is feasible to accurately estimate quantitatively driving performance, expressed as deviation between the center of the vehicle and the center of the cruising lane, in a realistic driving simulator.

  2. Estimation of legal age using calcification stages of third molars in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Streckbein, Philipp; Reichert, Isabelle; Verhoff, Marcel A; Bödeker, Rolf-Hasso; Kähling, Christopher; Wilbrand, Jan-Falco; Schaaf, Heidrun; Howaldt, Hans-Peter; May, Andreas

    2014-12-01

    The increased number of adolescents and young adults with unknown or inaccurately given date of birth is a current issue in justice and legal medicine. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which third molar calcification stages assessed on panoramic X-rays could be useful as additional criteria for forensic age estimation in living individuals, focusing on the legally important ages 17 and 18. In a retrospective multi-center study, the developmental stage of each individual's third molar was analyzed using Demirjian's scale in 2360 cases. Additionally, sex, age and ancestry were assessed. Individuals with the lowest calcification stage of all present molars in stage H were ≥18 years with a likelihood of ≥99.05% in the female (n=388), and ≥99.24% in the male (n=482) population. The lowest calcification stage of all present third molars proved to be useful as an additional reliable criterion for the determination of an age ≥18 years. Copyright © 2014 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces

    PubMed Central

    Tuononen, Ari J.

    2009-01-01

    Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

  4. Estimation of Compaction Parameters Based on Soil Classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubis, A. S.; Muis, Z. A.; Hastuty, I. P.; Siregar, I. M.

    2018-02-01

    Factors that must be considered in compaction of the soil works were the type of soil material, field control, maintenance and availability of funds. Those problems then raised the idea of how to estimate the density of the soil with a proper implementation system, fast, and economical. This study aims to estimate the compaction parameter i.e. the maximum dry unit weight (γ dmax) and optimum water content (Wopt) based on soil classification. Each of 30 samples were being tested for its properties index and compaction test. All of the data’s from the laboratory test results, were used to estimate the compaction parameter values by using linear regression and Goswami Model. From the research result, the soil types were A4, A-6, and A-7 according to AASHTO and SC, SC-SM, and CL based on USCS. By linear regression, the equation for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *)=1,862-0,005*FINES- 0,003*LL and estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *)=- 0,607+0,362*FINES+0,161*LL. By Goswami Model (with equation Y=mLogG+k), for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *) with m=-0,376 and k=2,482, for estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *) with m=21,265 and k=-32,421. For both of these equations a 95% confidence interval was obtained.

  5. Age-related differences in regional brain volumes: A comparison of optimized voxel-based morphometry to manual volumetry

    PubMed Central

    Kennedy, Kristen M.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Rodrigue, Karen M.; Voss, Michelle W.; Colcombe, Stan J.; Kramer, Arthur F.; Acker, James D.; Raz, Naftali

    2009-01-01

    Regional manual volumetry is the gold standard of in vivo neuroanatomy, but is labor-intensive, can be imperfectly reliable, and allows for measuring limited number of regions. Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) has perfect repeatability and assesses local structure across the whole brain. However, its anatomic validity is unclear, and with its increasing popularity, a systematic comparison of VBM to manual volumetry is necessary. The few existing comparison studies are limited by small samples, qualitative comparisons, and limited selection and modest reliability of manual measures. Our goal was to overcome those limitations by quantitatively comparing optimized VBM findings with highly reliable multiple regional measures in a large sample (N = 200) across a wide agespan (18–81). We report a complex pattern of similarities and differences. Peak values of VBM volume estimates (modulated density) produced stronger age differences and a different spatial distribution from manual measures. However, when we aggregated VBM-derived information across voxels contained in specific anatomically defined regions (masks), the patterns of age differences became more similar, although important discrepancies emerged. Notably, VBM revealed stronger age differences in the regions bordering CSF and white matter areas prone to leukoaraiosis, and VBM was more likely to report nonlinearities in age-volume relationships. In the white matter regions, manual measures showed stronger negative associations with age than the corresponding VBM-based masks. We conclude that VBM provides realistic estimates of age differences in the regional gray matter only when applied to anatomically defined regions, but overestimates effects when individual peaks are interpreted. It may be beneficial to use VBM as a first-pass strategy, followed by manual measurement of anatomically-defined regions. PMID:18276037

  6. Validation of thigh-based accelerometer estimates of postural allocation in 5-12 year-olds.

    PubMed

    van Loo, Christiana M T; Okely, Anthony D; Batterham, Marijka J; Hinkley, Trina; Ekelund, Ulf; Brage, Søren; Reilly, John J; Jones, Rachel A; Janssen, Xanne; Cliff, Dylan P

    2017-03-01

    To validate activPAL3™ (AP3) for classifying postural allocation, estimating time spent in postures and examining the number of breaks in sedentary behaviour (SB) in 5-12 year-olds. Laboratory-based validation study. Fifty-seven children completed 15 sedentary, light- and moderate-to-vigorous intensity activities. Direct observation (DO) was used as the criterion measure. The accuracy of AP3 was examined using a confusion matrix, equivalence testing, Bland-Altman procedures and a paired t-test for 5-8y and 9-12y. Sensitivity of AP3 was 86.8%, 82.5% and 85.3% for sitting/lying, standing, and stepping, respectively, in 5-8y and 95.3%, 81.5% and 85.1%, respectively, in 9-12y. Time estimates of AP3 were equivalent to DO for sitting/lying in 9-12y and stepping in all ages, but not for sitting/lying in 5-12y and standing in all ages. Underestimation of sitting/lying time was smaller in 9-12y (1.4%, limits of agreement [LoA]: -13.8 to 11.1%) compared to 5-8y (12.6%, LoA: -39.8 to 14.7%). Underestimation for stepping time was small (5-8y: 6.5%, LoA: -18.3 to 5.3%; 9-12y: 7.6%, LoA: -16.8 to 1.6%). Considerable overestimation was found for standing (5-8y: 36.8%, LoA: -16.3 to 89.8%; 9-12y: 19.3%, LoA: -1.6 to 36.9%). SB breaks were significantly overestimated (5-8y: 53.2%, 9-12y: 28.3%, p<0.001). AP3 showed acceptable accuracy for classifying postures, however estimates of time spent standing were consistently overestimated and individual error was considerable. Estimates of sitting/lying were more accurate for 9-12y. Stepping time was accurately estimated for all ages. SB breaks were significantly overestimated, although the absolute difference was larger in 5-8y. Surveillance applications of AP3 would be acceptable, however, individual level applications might be less accurate. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Gang; Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

    2016-01-01

    We use optimal design theory and construct locally optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator (MqLE), which is derived under less stringent conditions than those required for the MLE method. We show that the proposed locally optimal designs are asymptotically as efficient as those based on the MLE when the error distribution is from an exponential family, and they perform just as well or better than optimal designs based on any other asymptotically linear unbiased estimators such as the least square estimator (LSE). In addition, we show current algorithms for finding optimal designs can be directly used to find optimal designs based on the MqLE. As an illustrative application, we construct a variety of locally optimal designs based on the MqLE for the 4-parameter logistic (4PL) model and study their robustness properties to misspecifications in the model using asymptotic relative efficiency. The results suggest that optimal designs based on the MqLE can be easily generated and they are quite robust to mis-specification in the probability distribution of the responses. PMID:28163359

  8. Objective estimation of patient age through a new composite scale for facial aging assessment: The face - Objective assessment scale.

    PubMed

    La Padula, Simone; Hersant, Barbara; SidAhmed, Mounia; Niddam, Jeremy; Meningaud, Jean Paul

    2016-07-01

    Most patients requesting aesthetic rejuvenation treatment expect to look healthier and younger. Some scales for ageing assessment have been proposed, but none is focused on patient age prediction. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new facial rating scale assessing facial ageing sign severity. One thousand Caucasian patients were included and assessed. The Rasch model was used as part of the validation process. A score was attributed to each patient, based on the scales we developed. The correlation between the real age and scores obtained, the inter-rater reliability and test-retest reliability were analysed. The objective was to develop a tool enabling the assigning of a patient to a specific age range based on the calculated score. All scales exceeded criteria for acceptability, reliability and validity. The real age strongly correlated with the total facial score in both sex groups. The test-retest reliability confirmed this strong correlation. We developed a facial ageing scale which could be a useful tool to assess patients before and after rejuvenation treatment and an important new metrics to be used in facial rejuvenation and regenerative clinical research. Copyright © 2016 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A Microphysics-Based Black Carbon Aging Scheme in a Global Chemical Transport Model: Constraints from HIPPO Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, C.; Li, Q.; Liou, K. N.; Qi, L.; Tao, S.; Schwarz, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon (BC) aging significantly affects its distributions and radiative properties, which is an important uncertainty source in estimating BC climatic effects. Global models often use a fixed aging timescale for the hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic BC conversion or a simple parameterization. We have developed and implemented a microphysics-based BC aging scheme that accounts for condensation and coagulation processes into a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Model results are systematically evaluated by comparing with the HIPPO observations across the Pacific (67°S-85°N) during 2009-2011. We find that the microphysics-based scheme substantially increases the BC aging rate over source regions as compared with the fixed aging timescale (1.2 days), due to the condensation of sulfate and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and coagulation with pre-existing hydrophilic aerosols. However, the microphysics-based scheme slows down BC aging over Polar regions where condensation and coagulation are rather weak. We find that BC aging is primarily dominated by condensation process that accounts for ~75% of global BC aging, while the coagulation process is important over source regions where a large amount of pre-existing aerosols are available. Model results show that the fixed aging scheme tends to overestimate BC concentrations over the Pacific throughout the troposphere by a factor of 2-5 at different latitudes, while the microphysics-based scheme reduces the discrepancies by up to a factor of 2, particularly in the middle troposphere. The microphysics-based scheme developed in this work decreases BC column total concentrations at all latitudes and seasons, especially over tropical regions, leading to large improvement in model simulations. We are presently analyzing the impact of this scheme on global BC budget and lifetime, quantifying its uncertainty associated with key parameters, and investigating the effects of heterogeneous chemical oxidation on BC aging.

  10. Effect of age and gender on the number of motor units in healthy subjects estimated by the multipoint incremental MUNE method.

    PubMed

    Gawel, Malgorzata; Kostera-Pruszczyk, Anna

    2014-06-01

    Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a tool for estimating the number of motor units. The aim was to evaluate the multipoint incremental MUNE method in a healthy population, to analyze whether aging, gender, and the dominant hand side influence the motor unit number, and to assess reproducibility of MUNE with the Shefner modification. We studied 60 volunteers (mean age, 47 ± 17.7 years) in four groups aged 18 to 30, 31 to 45, 46 to 60, and above 60 years. Motor unit number estimation was calculated in the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and the abductor digiti minimi (ADM) by dividing the single motor unit action potential amplitude into the maximal compound motor action potential amplitude. Test-retest variability was 7%. The mean value of MUNE for APB was 133.2 ± 43 and for ADM was 157.1 ± 39.4. Significant differences in MUNE results were found between groups aged 18 to 30 and 60 years or older and between groups aged 31 to 45 and 60 years or older. Motor unit number estimation results correlated negatively with the age of subjects for both APB and ADM. Single motor unit action potential, reflecting the size of motor unit, increased with the age of subjects only in APB. Compound motor action potential amplitude correlated negatively with the age of subjects in APB and ADM. Significant correlations were seen between MUNE in APB or ADM and compound motor action potential amplitude in these muscles and the age of female subjects. A similar relationship was not found in males. Multipoint incremental MUNE method with the Shefner modification is a noninvasive, easy to perform method with high reproducibility. The loss of motor neurons because of aging could be confirmed by our MUNE study and seems to be more pronounced in females.

  11. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Finkelstein, Julia L; Schleinitz, Mark D; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T

    2008-03-05

    Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and > or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (> or =15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

  12. Decision-Model Estimation of the Age-Specific Disability Weight for Schistosomiasis Japonica: A Systematic Review of the Literature

    PubMed Central

    Finkelstein, Julia L.; Schleinitz, Mark D.; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T.

    2008-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and ≥15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (≥15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control. PMID:18320018

  13. Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

  14. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  15. Threshold groundwater ages and young water fractions estimated from 3H, 3He, and 14C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirchner, James; Jasechko, Scott

    2016-04-01

    It is widely recognized that a water sample taken from a running stream is not described by a single age, but rather by a distribution of ages. It is less widely recognized that the same principle holds true for groundwaters, as indicated by the commonly observed discordances between model ages obtained from different tracers (e.g., 3H vs 14C) in the same sample. Water age distributions are often characterized by their mean residence times (MRT's). However, MRT estimates are highly uncertain because they depend on the shape of the assumed residence time distribution (in particular on the thickness of the long-time tail), which is difficult or impossible to constrain with data. Furthermore, because MRT's are typically nonlinear functions of age tracer concentrations, they are subject to aggregation bias. That is, MRT estimates derived from a mixture of waters with different ages (and thus different tracer concentrations) will systematically underestimate the mixture's true mean age. Here, building on recent work with stable isotope tracers in surface waters [1-3], we present a new framework for using 3H, 3He and 14C to characterize groundwater age distributions. Rather than describing groundwater age distributions by their MRT, we characterize them by the fraction of the distribution that is younger or older than a threshold age. The threshold age that separates "young" from "old" water depends on the characteristics of the specific tracer, including its history of atmospheric inputs. Our approach depends only on whether a given slice of the age distribution is younger or older than the threshold age, but not on how much younger or older it is. Thus our approach is insensitive to the tails of the age distribution, and is therefore relatively unaffected by uncertainty in the distribution's shape. Here we show that concentrations of 3H, 3He, and 14C are almost linearly related to the fractions of water that are younger or older than specified threshold ages. These

  16. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees ofmore » freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.« less

  17. Time-based and event-based prospective memory in autism spectrum disorder: the roles of executive function and theory of mind, and time-estimation.

    PubMed

    Williams, David; Boucher, Jill; Lind, Sophie; Jarrold, Christopher

    2013-07-01

    Prospective memory (remembering to carry out an action in the future) has been studied relatively little in ASD. We explored time-based (carry out an action at a pre-specified time) and event-based (carry out an action upon the occurrence of a pre-specified event) prospective memory, as well as possible cognitive correlates, among 21 intellectually high-functioning children with ASD, and 21 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison children. We found impaired time-based, but undiminished event-based, prospective memory among children with ASD. In the ASD group, time-based prospective memory performance was associated significantly with diminished theory of mind, but not with diminished cognitive flexibility. There was no evidence that time-estimation ability contributed to time-based prospective memory impairment in ASD.

  18. Age distribution and age-related outcomes of olfactory neuroblastoma: a population-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Yin, Zhenzhen; Wang, Youyou; Wu, Yuemei; Zhang, Ximei; Wang, Fengming; Wang, Peiguo; Tao, Zhen; Yuan, Zhiyong

    2018-01-01

    The objective of the study was to describe the age distribution and to evaluate the role of prognostic value of age on survival in patients diagnosed with olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB). A population-based retrospective analysis was conducted. The population-based study of patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) tumor registry, who were diagnosed with ONB from 1973 to 2014, were retrospectively analyzed. The cohort included 876 patients with a median age of 54 years. There was a unimodal distribution of age and ONBs most frequently occurred in the fifth to sixth decades of life. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates of 69% and 78% at 5 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that age, SEER stage, and surgery were independent prognostic factors for CSS. The risk of overall death and cancer-specific death increased 3.1% and 1.6% per year, respectively. Patients aged >60 years presented significantly poor OS and CSS compared with patients aged ≤60 years, even in patients with loco-regional disease or in those treated with surgery. This study highlights the growing evidence that there is a unimodal age distribution of ONB and that age is an important adverse prognostic factor.

  19. Comparative Analysis of Various Single-tone Frequency Estimation Techniques in High-order Instantaneous Moments Based Phase Estimation Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajshekhar, G.; Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

    2010-04-01

    For phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM) based method was recently developed which relies on piecewise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients using the HIM operator. A crucial step in the method is mapping the polynomial coefficient estimation to single-tone frequency determination for which various techniques exist. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of the HIM operator based method in using different single-tone frequency estimation techniques for phase estimation. The analysis is supplemented by simulation results.

  20. Variable disparity-motion estimation based fast three-view video coding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bae, Kyung-Hoon; Kim, Seung-Cheol; Hwang, Yong Seok; Kim, Eun-Soo

    2009-02-01

    In this paper, variable disparity-motion estimation (VDME) based 3-view video coding is proposed. In the encoding, key-frame coding (KFC) based motion estimation and variable disparity estimation (VDE) for effectively fast three-view video encoding are processed. These proposed algorithms enhance the performance of 3-D video encoding/decoding system in terms of accuracy of disparity estimation and computational overhead. From some experiments, stereo sequences of 'Pot Plant' and 'IVO', it is shown that the proposed algorithm's PSNRs is 37.66 and 40.55 dB, and the processing time is 0.139 and 0.124 sec/frame, respectively.