Science.gov

Sample records for age estimation procedures

  1. A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications

  2. Age estimation from canine volumes.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gaudio, Daniel; Guercini, Nicola; Cipriani, Filippo; Gibelli, Daniele; Caputi, Sergio; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    Techniques for estimation of biological age are constantly evolving and are finding daily application in the forensic radiology field in cases concerning the estimation of the chronological age of a corpse in order to reconstruct the biological profile, or of a living subject, for example in cases of immigration of people without identity papers from a civil registry. The deposition of teeth secondary dentine and consequent decrease of pulp chamber in size are well known as aging phenomena, and they have been applied to the forensic context by the development of age estimation procedures, such as Kvaal-Solheim and Cameriere methods. The present study takes into consideration canines pulp chamber volume related to the entire teeth volume, with the aim of proposing new regression formulae for age estimation using 91 cone beam computerized scans and a freeware open-source software, in order to permit affordable reproducibility of volumes calculation.

  3. PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING PERMANENT TOTAL ENCLOSURE COSTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper discusses a procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure (PTE) costs. (NOTE: Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use PTEs, enclosures that mee...

  4. Age Estimation in Forensic Sciences

    PubMed Central

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L.

    2010-01-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955–1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 (14C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2 = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 ± 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 ± 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905

  5. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  6. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-01

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  7. 40 CFR 98.385 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... Procedures for estimating missing data. You must follow the procedures for estimating missing data in § 98... estimating missing data for petroleum products in § 98.395 also applies to coal-to-liquid products....

  8. A simple procedure for estimating soil porosity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmet-Booth, Jeremy; Forristal, Dermot; Fenton, Owen; Holden, Nick

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation from mismanagement is of international concern. Simple, accessible tools for rapidly assessing impacts of soil management are required. Soil structure is a key component of soil quality and porosity is a useful indicator of structure. We outline a version of a procedure described by Piwowarczyk et al. (2011) used to estimate porosity of samples taken during a soil quality survey of 38 sites across Ireland as part of the Government funded SQUARE (Soil Quality Assessment Research) project. This required intact core (r = 2.5 cm, H = 5cm) samples taken at 5-10 cm and 10-20 cm depth, to be covered with muslin cloth at one end and secured with a jubilee clip. Samples were saturated in sealable water tanks for ≈ 64 hours, then allowed to drain by gravity for 24 hours, at which point Field Capacity (F.C.) was assumed to have been reached, followed by oven drying with weight determined at each stage. This allowed the calculation of bulk density and the estimation of water content at saturation and following gravitational drainage, thus total and functional porosity. The assumption that F.C. was reached following 24 hours of gravitational drainage was based on the Soil Moisture Deficit model used in Ireland to predict when soils are potentially vulnerable to structural damage and used nationally as a management tool. Preliminary results indicate moderately strong, negative correlations between estimated total porosity at 5-10 cm and 10-20 cm depth (rs = -0.7, P < 0.01 in both cases) and soil quality scores of the Visual Evaluation of Soil Structure (VESS) method which was conducted at each survey site. Estimated functional porosity at 5-10 cm depth was found to moderately, negatively correlate with VESS scores (rs = - 0.5, P < 0.05). This simple procedure requires inexpensive equipment and appears useful in indicating porosity of a large quantity of samples taken at numerous sites or if done periodically, temporal changes in porosity at a field scale

  9. Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

    2012-11-30

    Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

  10. Juvenile age estimation from facial images.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Eilidh; Wilkinson, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Age determination from images can be of vital importance, particularly in cases involving suspected child sexual abuse (CSA). It is imperative to determine if an individual depicted in such an image is indeed a child, with a more concise age often sought, as this may affect the severity of offender sentencing. The aims of this study were to establish the accuracy of visual age estimation of the juvenile face in children aged between 0 and 16years and to determine if varying levels of exposure to children affected an individual's ability to assess age from the face. An online questionnaire consisting of 30 juvenile face images was created using SurveyMonkey®. The overall results suggested poor accuracy for visual age estimation of juvenile faces. The age, sex, occupation and number of children of the participants did not affect the ability to estimate age from facial images. Similarly, the sex and age of the juvenile faces did not appear to affect the accuracy of age estimation. When specific age groups are considered, sex may have an influence on age estimation, with female faces being aged more accurately in the younger age groups and male faces more accurate after the age of 11years, however this is based on a small sample. This study suggests that the accuracy of juvenile age estimation from the face alone is poor using simple visual assessment of images. Further research is required to determine exactly how age is assessed from a facial image, if there are indicators, or features in particular that lead to over- or under-estimation of juvenile age.

  11. [Biological age estimation by means of electroencephalography].

    PubMed

    Belozerova, L M

    2013-01-01

    The indices of computer electroencephalography have been estimated in 183 persons at the age of 20-89. Test-programs and the method of biological age determination by computer electroencephalography have been elaborated. We have found three subpopulations in each age group--people with slowing-down, mean and accelerated age changes rate. The proposed method of biological age determination includes standard generally established indices of computer electroencephalography.

  12. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    SciTech Connect

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-08-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of (4.4, 43.7) ka.

  13. Estimating survival rates with age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, M.S.; Ballachey, B.E.

    1998-01-01

    We developed a general statistical model that provides a comprehensive framework for inference about survival rates based on standing age-structure and ages-at-death data. Previously available estimators are maximum likelihood under the general model, but they use only 1 type of data and require the assumption of a stable age structure and a known population growth rate. We used the general model to derive new survival rate estimators that use both types of data and require only the assumption of a stable age structure or a known population growth rate. Our likelihood-based approach allows use of standard model-selection procedures to test hypotheses about age-structure stability, population growth rates, and age-related patterns in survival. We used this approach to estimate survival rates for female sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

  14. Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

    PubMed

    Roy, S G

    1989-06-01

    "Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function."

  15. Aging persons' estimates of vehicular motion.

    PubMed

    Schiff, W; Oldak, R; Shah, V

    1992-12-01

    Estimated arrival times of moving autos were examined in relation to viewer age, gender, motion trajectory, and velocity. Direct push-button judgments were compared with verbal estimates derived from velocity and distance, which were based on assumptions that perceivers compute arrival time from perceived distance and velocity. Experiment 1 showed that direct estimates of younger Ss were most accurate. Older women made the shortest (highly cautious) estimates of when cars would arrive. Verbal estimates were much lower than direct estimates, with little correlation between them. Experiment 2 extended target distances and velocities of targets, with the results replicating the main findings of Experiment 1. Judgment accuracy increased with target velocity, and verbal estimates were again poorer estimates of arrival time than direct ones, with different patterns of findings. Using verbal estimates to approximate judgments in traffic situations appears questionable.

  16. A Bootstrap Procedure of Propensity Score Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bai, Haiyan

    2013-01-01

    Propensity score estimation plays a fundamental role in propensity score matching for reducing group selection bias in observational data. To increase the accuracy of propensity score estimation, the author developed a bootstrap propensity score. The commonly used propensity score matching methods: nearest neighbor matching, caliper matching, and…

  17. Precision of age estimates from different ageing structures in selected freshwater teleosts.

    PubMed

    Khan, Shahista; Khan, M Afzal; Miyan, Kaish; Lone, Faisal Ahmad

    2015-03-01

    The present study was undertaken with a view to compare the precision of age readings obtained from different ageing structures of some important freshwater teleosts viz., Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, Mastacembelus armatus and Ompok pabda. Standard procedures were followed to study the ageing structures. Based on the highest percent agreement and lowest average percentage of error and coefficient of variation values, precise age estimates were exhibited by opercular bones in H. molitrix and vertebrae in the remaining two fish, M. armatus and O. pabda. When precise age estimates were compared among the age estimates of other ageing structures, highest percent agreement and lowest average percent error and coefficient of variation values were exhibited by vertebrae (versus opercular bones) in H. molitrix and opercular bones (versus vertebrae) in both M. armatus and O. pabda. When mean age estimates from different ageing structures were compared, vertebrae and opercular bones exhibited comparable values in H. molitrix. In M. armatus, mean values of precise age estimates from vertebrae were significantly different from the values of other ageing structures. However, in O. pabda, vertebrae as well as opercular bones showed insignificantly different age readings.

  18. Estimation of age by epidermal image processing.

    PubMed

    Tatsumi, S; Noda, H; Sugiyama, S

    1999-12-01

    Small pieces of human precordial skin were obtained from 266 individuals during autopsy performed in Osaka Prefecture. The area from the stratum corneum to the stratum basale in a unit area of the epidermal cross-section was extracted as a segmented area of white image by image processing. The number of pixels surrounding this area was measured in individuals of various ages, and the age-associated changes were evaluated. The number of pixels around this binary image in the epidermal cross-section showed a strong correlation with age. The number tended to decrease with an increase in age in individuals aged 20 years and above, which could be closely approximated by an exponential function. A formula for estimating age was obtained as an inverse function of the number of pixels and age, and the accuracy of estimation using this formula was examined by comparing the estimated age with the actual age. Such age-associated changes in the epidermis were considered to be closely related with increased roughening of the stratum basale, flattening of dermal papillae, and a decreased percentage of the stratum granulosum per unit area of epidermis observed by light microscopy or scanning electron microscopy.

  19. 40 CFR 98.245 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... estimating missing data. For missing feedstock flow rates, product flow rates, and carbon contents, use the same procedures as for missing flow rates and carbon contents for fuels as specified in § 98.35....

  20. Age estimation for forensic purposes in Italy: ethical issues.

    PubMed

    Focardi, Martina; Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

    2014-05-01

    Age assessment in children and young adults is a relevant medicolegal issue due to the gradual increase of persons devoid of proper identification documents in European countries. Because of the illegal immigration and growing crime rates among children and adolescents, age estimation for forensic purposes is often required. The scientific research and the extensive experience of forensic experts in the last decades focused on the use of radiographic methods addressed to evaluate the degree of skeletal or dental development as the most accurate parameters to estimate the chronological age of children and adolescents. This paper analyzes the ethical issues related to age estimation procedures based on radiographic methods, showing how the ethical principles of beneficence, nonmalevolence, justice, and autonomy may be guaranteed during the execution of the age assessment in forensic practice. The procedure might be conducted in accordance with international guidelines and protocols, though they need a higher homogenization and standardization. A strong collaboration between various scientific societies of professionals (forensic odontologists, forensic pathologists, forensic anthropologist, radiologists, pediatricians, and psychologists), who have been involved in age estimation for years, is needed to reach this goal.

  1. Spectral procedures for estimating crop biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Wanjura, D.F.; Hatfield, J.L.

    1985-05-01

    Spectral reflectance was measured semi-weekly and used to estimate leaf area and plant dry weight accumulation in cotton, soybeans, and sunflower. Integration of spectral crop growth cycle curves explained up to 95 and 91%, respectively, of the variation in cotton lint yield and dry weight. A theoretical relationship for dry weight accumulation, in which only intercepted radiation or intercepted radiation and solar energy to biomass conversion efficiency were spectrally estimated, explained 99 and 96%, respectively, of the observed plant dry weight variation of the three crops. These results demonstrate the feasibility of predicting crop biomass from spectral measurements collected frequently during the growing season. 15 references.

  2. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    PubMed

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age.

  3. School age test or procedure preparation

    MedlinePlus

    ... someone else who is helping with the procedure. Physical contact can help reduce pain and anxiety. Distract your child with books, bubbles, games, hand-held video games, or other activities. PLAY PREPARATION Children often ...

  4. A Numerical Empirical Bayes Procedure for Finding an Interval Estimate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lord, Frederic M.

    A numerical procedure is outlined for obtaining an interval estimate of a parameter in an empirical Bayes estimation problem. The case where each observed value x has a binomial distribution, conditional on a parameter zeta, is the only case considered. For each x, the parameter estimated is the expected value of zeta given x. The main purpose is…

  5. Cost estimating procedure for unmanned satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greer, H.; Campbell, H. G.

    1980-11-01

    Historical costs from 11 unmanned satellite programs were analyzed. From these data, total satellite cost estimating relationships (CERs) were developed for use during preliminary design studies. A time-related factor, which it is believed accounts for differences in technology, was observed in the data. Stratification of the data by type of payload was also found to be necessary. Cost differences that stem from production quantity variations were accounted for by adjustment factors developed from standard learning curve theory. An example to illustrate use of the CERs is provided.

  6. 40 CFR 98.145 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Glass Production § 98.145 Procedures for estimating... carbonate-based raw materials charged to any continuous glass melting furnace use the best...

  7. 40 CFR 98.145 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Glass Production § 98.145 Procedures for estimating... carbonate-based raw materials charged to any continuous glass melting furnace use the best...

  8. 40 CFR 98.145 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Glass Production § 98.145 Procedures for estimating... carbonate-based raw materials charged to any continuous glass melting furnace use the best...

  9. 40 CFR 98.145 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Glass Production § 98.145 Procedures for estimating... carbonate-based raw materials charged to any continuous glass melting furnace use the best...

  10. 40 CFR 98.85 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Cement Production § 98.85 Procedures for estimating... apply. (b) For CO2 process emissions from cement manufacturing facilities calculated according to §...

  11. 40 CFR 98.85 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Cement Production § 98.85 Procedures for estimating... apply. (b) For CO2 process emissions from cement manufacturing facilities calculated according to §...

  12. 40 CFR 98.85 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Cement Production § 98.85 Procedures for estimating... apply. (b) For CO2 process emissions from cement manufacturing facilities calculated according to §...

  13. 40 CFR 98.85 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Cement Production § 98.85 Procedures for estimating... apply. (b) For CO2 process emissions from cement manufacturing facilities calculated according to §...

  14. 40 CFR 98.175 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ....255(b) of subpart Y (Petroleum Refineries) of this part for flares burning coke oven gas or blast furnace gas. You must document and keep records of the procedures used for all such estimates. (a)...

  15. 40 CFR 98.245 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... estimating missing data. For missing feedstock flow rates, product flow rates, and carbon contents, use the same procedures as for missing flow rates and carbon contents for fuels as specified in § 98.35....

  16. 40 CFR 98.315 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.315 Section 98.315 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Titanium Dioxide Production § 98.315 Procedures...

  17. 40 CFR 98.285 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.285 Section 98.285 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Silicon Carbide Production § 98.285 Procedures...

  18. 40 CFR 98.285 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.285 Section 98.285 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Silicon Carbide Production § 98.285 Procedures...

  19. 40 CFR 98.285 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.285 Section 98.285 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Silicon Carbide Production § 98.285 Procedures...

  20. 40 CFR 98.285 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.285 Section 98.285 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Silicon Carbide Production § 98.285 Procedures...

  1. 40 CFR 98.285 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.285 Section 98.285 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Silicon Carbide Production § 98.285 Procedures...

  2. 40 CFR 98.335 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.335 Section 98.335 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Zinc Production § 98.335 Procedures for...

  3. 40 CFR 98.335 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.335 Section 98.335 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Zinc Production § 98.335 Procedures for...

  4. 40 CFR 98.335 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.335 Section 98.335 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Zinc Production § 98.335 Procedures for...

  5. 40 CFR 98.335 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.335 Section 98.335 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Zinc Production § 98.335 Procedures for...

  6. 40 CFR 98.335 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.335 Section 98.335 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Zinc Production § 98.335 Procedures for...

  7. 40 CFR 98.175 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.175 Section 98.175 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Iron and Steel Production § 98.175 Procedures...

  8. 40 CFR 98.315 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.315 Section 98.315 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Titanium Dioxide Production § 98.315 Procedures...

  9. 40 CFR 98.425 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.425 Section 98.425 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Suppliers of Carbon Dioxide § 98.425 Procedures...

  10. 40 CFR 98.55 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.55 Section 98.55 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Adipic Acid Production § 98.55 Procedures...

  11. 40 CFR 98.115 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.115 Section 98.115 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Ferroalloy Production § 98.115 Procedures...

  12. 40 CFR 98.145 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.145 Section 98.145 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Glass Production § 98.145 Procedures for...

  13. 40 CFR 98.85 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.85 Section 98.85 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Cement Production § 98.85 Procedures for...

  14. 40 CFR 98.55 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.55 Section 98.55 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Adipic Acid Production § 98.55 Procedures...

  15. 40 CFR 98.55 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.55 Section 98.55 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Adipic Acid Production § 98.55 Procedures...

  16. 40 CFR 98.125 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.125 Section 98.125 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Fluorinated Gas Production § 98.125 Procedures...

  17. 40 CFR 98.125 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.125 Section 98.125 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Fluorinated Gas Production § 98.125 Procedures...

  18. 40 CFR 98.125 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.125 Section 98.125 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Fluorinated Gas Production § 98.125 Procedures...

  19. 40 CFR 98.265 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.265 Section 98.265 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Phosphoric Acid Production § 98.265 Procedures...

  20. 40 CFR 98.315 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.315 Section 98.315 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Titanium Dioxide Production § 98.315 Procedures...

  1. 40 CFR 98.315 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.315 Section 98.315 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Titanium Dioxide Production § 98.315 Procedures...

  2. 40 CFR 98.315 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.315 Section 98.315 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Titanium Dioxide Production § 98.315 Procedures...

  3. 40 CFR 98.45 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.45 Section 98.45 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electricity Generation § 98.45 Procedures...

  4. 40 CFR 98.45 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.45 Section 98.45 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electricity Generation § 98.45 Procedures...

  5. 40 CFR 98.45 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.45 Section 98.45 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electricity Generation § 98.45 Procedures...

  6. 40 CFR 98.45 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.45 Section 98.45 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electricity Generation § 98.45 Procedures...

  7. 40 CFR 98.45 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.45 Section 98.45 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electricity Generation § 98.45 Procedures...

  8. 40 CFR 98.175 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.175 Section 98.175 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Iron and Steel Production § 98.175 Procedures...

  9. 40 CFR 98.75 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.75 Section 98.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Ammonia Manufacturing § 98.75 Procedures...

  10. 40 CFR 98.75 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.75 Section 98.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Ammonia Manufacturing § 98.75 Procedures...

  11. 40 CFR 98.75 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.75 Section 98.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Ammonia Manufacturing § 98.75 Procedures...

  12. 40 CFR 98.75 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.75 Section 98.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Ammonia Manufacturing § 98.75 Procedures...

  13. 40 CFR 98.75 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.75 Section 98.75 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Ammonia Manufacturing § 98.75 Procedures...

  14. 40 CFR 98.95 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.95 Section 98.95 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electronics Manufacturing § 98.95 Procedures...

  15. 40 CFR 98.95 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.95 Section 98.95 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electronics Manufacturing § 98.95 Procedures...

  16. 40 CFR 98.95 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.95 Section 98.95 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electronics Manufacturing § 98.95 Procedures...

  17. 40 CFR 98.95 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.95 Section 98.95 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Electronics Manufacturing § 98.95 Procedures...

  18. Estimated Autism Risk and Older Reproductive Age

    PubMed Central

    King, Marissa D.; Fountain, Christine; Dakhlallah, Diana

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We sought to estimate the risk for autism associated with maternal and paternal age across successive birth cohorts. Methods. We linked birth records and autism diagnostic records from the California Department of Developmental Services for children born in California between 1992 and 2000 to calculate the risk associated with maternal and paternal age for each birth cohort as well as for the pooled data. Results. The categorical risks associated with maternal age over 40 years ranged from a high of 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 2.47) to a low of 1.27 (95% CI = 0.95, 1.69). The risk associated with paternal age ranged from 1.29 (95% CI = 1.03, 1.6) to 1.71 (95% CI = 1.41, 2.08). Conclusions. Pooling data across multiple birth cohorts inflates the risk associated with paternal age. Analyses that do not suffer from problems produced by pooling across birth cohorts demonstrated that advanced maternal age, rather than paternal age, may pose greater risk. Future research examining parental age as a risk factor must be careful to avoid the paradoxes that can arise from pooling data, particularly during periods of social demographic change. PMID:19608957

  19. Sensitivity of health risk estimates to air quality adjustment procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.

    1997-06-30

    This letter is a summary of risk results associated with exposure estimates using two-parameter Weibull and quadratic air quality adjustment procedures (AQAPs). New exposure estimates were developed for children and child-occurrences, six urban areas, and five alternative air quality scenarios. In all cases, the Weibull and quadratic results are compared to previous results, which are based on a proportional AQAP.

  20. 40 CFR 98.345 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... for estimating missing data. A complete record of all measured parameters used in the GHG emissions... substitute data value for the missing parameter shall be used in the calculations, according to...

  1. 40 CFR 98.365 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... estimating missing data. (a) A complete record of all measured parameters used in the GHG emissions... substitute data value for the missing parameter shall be used in the calculations, according to...

  2. 40 CFR 98.225 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... estimating missing data. A complete record of all measured parameters used in the GHG emissions calculations... substitute data value for the missing parameter shall be used in the calculations as specified in...

  3. 40 CFR 98.215 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... for estimating missing data. (a) A complete record of all measured parameters used in the GHG... unavailable, a substitute data value for the missing parameter shall be used in the calculations as...

  4. Unbiased Estimates of Variance Components with Bootstrap Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brennan, Robert L.

    2007-01-01

    This article provides general procedures for obtaining unbiased estimates of variance components for any random-model balanced design under any bootstrap sampling plan, with the focus on designs of the type typically used in generalizability theory. The results reported here are particularly helpful when the bootstrap is used to estimate standard…

  5. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    PubMed Central

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  6. Estimating the Age of the Hawaiian Hotspot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, D. W.; Rea, D. K.

    2002-12-01

    INTRODUCTION: West of the Hawaii hotspot (HHS), an age-progressing chain of seamounts extends northwestwardly ~3600 km to the Hawaii-Emperor bend, beyond which the chain continues for ~2200 km as the north-northwestwardly trending Emperor Ridge. The ridge terminates at the ~82-Myr-old Meiji Seamount, which is perched atop the outer slope of the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench. West of Meiji, at Cape Kronotsky, the ridge orthogonally disappears into the Kamchatka subduction zone. If the length of the subducted sector of the Emperor Ridge could be estimated, then the age when volcanism began above the HHS could be estimated. MEIJI DRIFT: Deposition of the Meiji drift deposits along the northern side of the far northern or Meiji-Detroit sector of the Emperor Ridge provides a way to estimate the minimum age of the HHS. The drift deposit (as thick as 1800 m) began to accumulate about 33.5 Ma (earliest Oligocene) during the Earth's climatic transition to the ice house world. South-bound abyssal currents exiting the Bering Sea Basin, possibly generated there by thermohaline circulation, deposited the drift along the ridge sector. At this time, the sector receiving drift deposits was positioned at least 2200 km SE of its present Kamchatka trench location. Also at this time, the Aleutian Ridge (arc) cordoning the Bering Sea from the north Pacific was at least 1000 km shorter than its present length, which has been greatly lengthened during the past 50 Myr by plate boundary, transform faulting. Thus, in the early Oligocene, a wide western seaway connected abyssal circulation between the Bering Sea and north Pacific Basins. MINIMUM AGE ESTIMATING: Initiation of drift deposition requires that a former continuation of the Meiji-Detroit seamount sector, referred to here as the Obruchev continuation, crossed the north Pacific and forced abyssal currents arriving from the Bering Sea to flow eastward along the continuation's northern flank. To deflect south-bound abyssal currents, the

  7. A procedure to estimate proximate analysis of mixed organic wastes.

    PubMed

    Zaher, U; Buffiere, P; Steyer, J P; Chen, S

    2009-04-01

    In waste materials, proximate analysis measuring the total concentration of carbohydrate, protein, and lipid contents from solid wastes is challenging, as a result of the heterogeneous and solid nature of wastes. This paper presents a new procedure that was developed to estimate such complex chemical composition of the waste using conventional practical measurements, such as chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total organic carbon. The procedure is based on mass balance of macronutrient elements (carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, and phosphorus [CHNOP]) (i.e., elemental continuity), in addition to the balance of COD and charge intensity that are applied in mathematical modeling of biological processes. Knowing the composition of such a complex substrate is crucial to study solid waste anaerobic degradation. The procedure was formulated to generate the detailed input required for the International Water Association (London, United Kingdom) Anaerobic Digestion Model number 1 (IWA-ADM1). The complex particulate composition estimated by the procedure was validated with several types of food wastes and animal manures. To make proximate analysis feasible for validation, the wastes were classified into 19 types to allow accurate extraction and proximate analysis. The estimated carbohydrates, proteins, lipids, and inerts concentrations were highly correlated to the proximate analysis; correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.88, 0.99, and 0.96, respectively. For most of the wastes, carbohydrate was the highest fraction and was estimated accurately by the procedure over an extended range with high linearity. For wastes that are rich in protein and fiber, the procedure was even more consistent compared with the proximate analysis. The new procedure can be used for waste characterization in solid waste treatment design and optimization.

  8. MARK-AGE standard operating procedures (SOPs): A successful effort.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Villanueva, María; Capri, Miriam; Breusing, Nicolle; Siepelmeyer, Anne; Sevini, Federica; Ghezzo, Alessandro; de Craen, Anton J M; Hervonen, Antti; Hurme, Mikko; Schön, Christiane; Grune, Tilman; Franceschi, Claudio; Bürkle, Alexander

    2015-11-01

    Within the MARK-AGE project, a population study (3337 subjects) was conducted to identify a set of biomarkers of ageing which, as a combination of parameters with appropriate weighting, would measure biological age better than any single marker. The MARK-AGE project involves 14 European countries and a total of 26 research centres. In such a study, standard operating procedures (SOPs) are an essential task, which are binding for all MARK-AGE Beneficiaries. The SOPs cover all aspects of subject's recruitment, collection, shipment and distribution of biological samples (blood and its components, buccal mucosa cells or BMC and urine) as well as the anthropometric measurements and questionnaires.

  9. 40 CFR 98.435 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Gases Contained in Pre-Charged Equipment or Closed-Cell Foams § 98.435 Procedures for estimating missing... fluorinated GHGs contained in pre-charged equipment or closed-cell foams. A complete record of all measured parameters used in tracking fluorinated GHGs contained in pre-charged equipment or closed-cell foams...

  10. 40 CFR 98.435 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Gases Contained in Pre-Charged Equipment or Closed-Cell Foams § 98.435 Procedures for estimating missing... fluorinated GHGs contained in pre-charged equipment or closed-cell foams. A complete record of all measured parameters used in tracking fluorinated GHGs contained in pre-charged equipment or closed-cell foams...

  11. Evaluation of classification procedures for estimating wheat acreage in Kansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flores, L. M.; Register, D. T.

    1976-01-01

    This report presents the results of experiments which were performed to evaluate procedures for estimating wheat acreage in intensive test sites (ITS's) in Kansas. An analyst/interpreter (AI) selected and labeled fields from Landsat-1 satellite imagery. Statistics were generated for each selected ITS, and the imagery was classified using a maximum likelihood classifier. Various components of the classification process were tested.

  12. 40 CFR 98.415 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.415 Section 98.415 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Suppliers of Industrial Greenhouse Gases §...

  13. 40 CFR 98.435 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.435 Section 98.435 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Importers and Exporters of Fluorinated...

  14. 40 CFR 98.435 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.435 Section 98.435 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Importers and Exporters of Fluorinated...

  15. 40 CFR 98.415 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.415 Section 98.415 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Suppliers of Industrial Greenhouse Gases §...

  16. 40 CFR 98.415 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.415 Section 98.415 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Suppliers of Industrial Greenhouse Gases §...

  17. 40 CFR 98.185 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... missing data. A complete record of all measured parameters used in the GHG emissions calculations in § 98... substitute data value for the missing parameter shall be used in the calculations as specified in...

  18. 40 CFR 98.445 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...) A quarterly CO2 concentration of a CO2 stream received that is missing must be estimated as follows... following missing data procedures: (a) A quarterly flow rate of CO2 received that is missing must be... method listed in § 98.444(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is missing must...

  19. 40 CFR 98.445 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...) A quarterly CO2 concentration of a CO2 stream received that is missing must be estimated as follows... following missing data procedures: (a) A quarterly flow rate of CO2 received that is missing must be... method listed in § 98.444(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is missing must...

  20. 40 CFR 98.445 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...) A quarterly CO2 concentration of a CO2 stream received that is missing must be estimated as follows... following missing data procedures: (a) A quarterly flow rate of CO2 received that is missing must be... method listed in § 98.444(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is missing must...

  1. 40 CFR 98.445 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...) A quarterly CO2 concentration of a CO2 stream received that is missing must be estimated as follows... following missing data procedures: (a) A quarterly flow rate of CO2 received that is missing must be... method listed in § 98.444(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is missing must...

  2. 40 CFR 98.345 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.345 Section 98.345 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Municipal Solid Waste Landfills § 98.345...

  3. 40 CFR 98.345 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.345 Section 98.345 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Municipal Solid Waste Landfills § 98.345...

  4. 40 CFR 98.345 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.345 Section 98.345 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Municipal Solid Waste Landfills § 98.345...

  5. 40 CFR 98.345 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.345 Section 98.345 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Municipal Solid Waste Landfills § 98.345...

  6. Estimating Costs for Development of Candidate Performance Evaluation Procedures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Payne, David A.

    This paper contains cost unit tables and instructions for their use in estimating the total cost of evaluating a given instructional objective or group of objectives. Included is a list of analytical procedures to be followed in the development of any device to evaluate student performance, (e.g., a unit exam in child development or an attitude…

  7. 40 CFR 98.165 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... procedures used for all such estimates. (b) For each missing value of the carbon content or molecular weight...-assured values of carbon contents or molecular weight of the fuel and feedstock immediately preceding and immediately following the missing data incident. If no quality-assured data on carbon contents or...

  8. 40 CFR 98.295 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... procedures used for all such missing value estimates. (a) For each missing value of the weekly composite of... or data used for accounting purposes. (c) For each missing value collected during the performance... following the calculation and monitoring and QA/QC requirements under §§ 98.293(b)(3) and 98.294(c). (d)...

  9. 40 CFR 98.275 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.275 Section 98.275 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Pulp and Paper Manufacturing § 98.275...

  10. 40 CFR 98.275 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data. 98.275 Section 98.275 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Pulp and Paper Manufacturing § 98.275...

  11. Improved False Discovery Rate Estimation Procedure for Shotgun Proteomics

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Interpreting the potentially vast number of hypotheses generated by a shotgun proteomics experiment requires a valid and accurate procedure for assigning statistical confidence estimates to identified tandem mass spectra. Despite the crucial role such procedures play in most high-throughput proteomics experiments, the scientific literature has not reached a consensus about the best confidence estimation methodology. In this work, we evaluate, using theoretical and empirical analysis, four previously proposed protocols for estimating the false discovery rate (FDR) associated with a set of identified tandem mass spectra: two variants of the target-decoy competition protocol (TDC) of Elias and Gygi and two variants of the separate target-decoy search protocol of Käll et al. Our analysis reveals significant biases in the two separate target-decoy search protocols. Moreover, the one TDC protocol that provides an unbiased FDR estimate among the target PSMs does so at the cost of forfeiting a random subset of high-scoring spectrum identifications. We therefore propose the mix-max procedure to provide unbiased, accurate FDR estimates in the presence of well-calibrated scores. The method avoids biases associated with the two separate target-decoy search protocols and also avoids the propensity for target-decoy competition to discard a random subset of high-scoring target identifications. PMID:26152888

  12. Demirjian approach of dental age estimation: Abridged for operator ease

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Vanshika; Kapoor, Priyanka; Miglani, Ragini

    2016-01-01

    Background: Present times have seen an alarming increase in incidence of crimes by juveniles and of mass destruction that Highlight the preponderance of individual age estimation. Of the numerous techniques employed for age assessment, dental age estimation (DAE) and its correlation with chronological age (CA) have been of great significance in the recent past. Demirjian system, considered as gold standard in DAE is a simple and convenient method for DAE, though,, although, referring to multiple tables make it cumbersome and less eco friendly due to excessive paper load. Aim: The present study was aimed to develop a comprehensive chart (DAEcc) inclusive of all Demirjian tables and developmental stages of teeth and also to as well as to test the operator ease of 50 undergraduate dental students in performing DAE using this chart. Materials and Methods: The study was performed in two stages, wherein the first stage was aimed at formulation of the comprehensive chart (DAECC) which included pictorial representation of calcification stages, the Federation Dentaire Internationale notation of the teeth, and the corresponding scores for each stage with a concluding column at the end to enter the total score. The second stage assessed the applicability of the ease of DAE by DAECC, whereby fifty 2nd year BDS students were asked to trace the calcification stages of the seven permanent left mandibular teeth on a panorex, identify the correct stage, assign the corresponding score, and to calculate the total score for subsequent dental age assessment. Results and Conclusions: showed that average time taken by the students for tracing seven mandibular teeth was 5 min and for assessment of dental age was 7 min. The total time taken for DAE was approximately 12 min, thus making the procedure less time consuming. Hence, this study proposes the use of DAEcc for age estimation due to ease in comprehension and execution of Demirjian system. PMID:28123280

  13. Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

    2015-11-01

    In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation.

  14. Procedural Complexity of the Age Discrimination in Employment Act: An Age-Old Problem.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sheeder, Robert E.

    1980-01-01

    The procedural prerequisites to an Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA) action are examined. The 1978 amendments to the Act as well as the leading decisions involving procedural matters are discussed. Available from The Duquesne Law Review, 901 Rockwell Hall, 600 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15219. (Author/MLF)

  15. Space Heating Load Estimation Procedure for CHP Systems sizing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vocale, P.; Pagliarini, G.; Rainieri, S.

    2015-11-01

    Due to its environmental and energy benefits, the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) represents certainly an important measure to improve energy efficiency of buildings. Since the energy performance of the CHP systems strongly depends on the fraction of the useful cogenerated heat (i.e. the cogenerated heat that is actually used to meet building thermal demand), in building applications of CHP, it is necessary to know the space heating and cooling loads profile to optimise the system efficiency. When the heating load profile is unknown or difficult to calculate with a sufficient accuracy, as may occur for existing buildings, it can be estimated from the cumulated energy uses by adopting the loads estimation procedure (h-LEP). With the aim to evaluate the useful fraction of the cogenerated heat for different operating conditions in terms of buildings characteristics, weather data and system capacity, the h-LEP is here implemented with a single climate variable: the hourly average dry- bulb temperature. The proposed procedure have been validated resorting to the TRNSYS simulation tool. The results, obtained by considering a building for hospital use, reveal that the useful fraction of the cogenerated heat can be estimated with an average accuracy of ± 3%, within the range of operative conditions considered in the present study.

  16. Calibration procedure of measuring system for vehicle wheel load estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kluziewicz, M.; Maniowski, M.

    2016-09-01

    The calibration procedure of wheel load measuring system is presented. Designed method allows estimation of selected wheel load components while the vehicle is in motion. Mentioned system is developed to determine friction forces between tire and road surface, basing on measured internal reaction forces in wheel suspension mechanism. Three strain gauge bridges and three-component piezoelectric load cell are responsible for internal force measurement in suspension components, two wire sensors are measuring displacements. External load is calculated via kinematic model of suspension mechanism implemented in Matlab environment. In the described calibration procedure, internal reactions are measured on a test stand while the system is loaded by a force of known direction and value.

  17. Age-related differences in perceptuomotor procedural learning in children.

    PubMed

    Lejeune, Caroline; Catale, Corinne; Schmitz, Xavier; Quertemont, Etienne; Meulemans, Thierry

    2013-10-01

    Procedural learning is generally considered to proceed in a series of phases, with cognitive resources playing an important role during the initial step. From a developmental perspective, little is known about the development of procedural learning or the role played by explicit cognitive processes during learning. The main objectives of this study were (a) to determine whether procedural learning performance improves with age by comparing groups of 7-year-old children, 10-year-old children, and adults and (b) to investigate the role played by executive functions during the acquisition in these three age groups. The 76 participants were assessed on a computerized adaptation of the mirror tracing paradigm. Results revealed that the youngest children had more difficulty in adapting to the task (they were slower and committed more errors at the beginning of the learning process) than 10-year-olds, but despite this age effect observed at the outset, all children improved performance across trials and transferred their skill to a different figure as well as adults. Correlational analyses showed that inhibition abilities play a key role in the performance of 10-year-olds and adults at the beginning of the learning but not in that of 7-year-olds. Overall, our results suggest that the age-related differences observed in our procedural learning task are at least partly due to the differential involvement of inhibition abilities, which may facilitate learning (so long as they are sufficiently developed) during the initial steps of the learning process; however, they would not be a necessary condition for skill learning to occur.

  18. Quantitative linkage: a statistical procedure for its detection and estimation.

    PubMed

    Hill, A P

    1975-05-01

    A new approach for detecting and estimating quantitative linkage which uses sibship data is presented. Using a nested analysis of variance design (with marker genotype nested within sibship), it is shown that under the null hypothesis of no linkage, the expected between marker genotype within sibship mean square (EMSbeta) is equal to the expected within marker genotype within sibship mean square (EMSe), while under the alternative hypothesis of linkage, the first is greater than the second. Thus the regular F-ratio, MSbeta/MSe, can be used to test for quantitative linkage. This is true for both backcross and intercross matings and whether or not there is dominance at the marker locus. A second test involving the comparison of the within marker genotype within sibship variances is available for intercross matings. A maximum likelihood procedure for the estimation for the recombination frequency is also presented.

  19. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  20. Dental cementum in age estimation: a polarized light and stereomicroscopic study.

    PubMed

    Kasetty, Sowmya; Rammanohar, M; Raju Ragavendra, T

    2010-05-01

    Dental hard tissues are good candidates for age estimation as they are less destructive and procedures to determine age can be easily performed. Although cementum annulations and cementum thickness are important parameters in this regard, they are seldom used. This study was undertaken to review the methods, difficulties in execution of techniques, and accuracy of cementum thickness and annulations in estimating the age. Unstained and stained ground sections of tooth were used to measure cemental thickness and count cemental annulations based on which age was estimated and was compared with known age. Although there was positive relation between cemental thickness and annulations with age, only in 1-1.5% of cases, age could be predicted with accuracy.

  1. Age at death estimation from bone histology in Malaysian males.

    PubMed

    Nor, Faridah Mohd; Pastor, Robert F; Schutkowski, Holger

    2014-10-01

    Estimation of age from microscopic examination of human bone utilizes bone remodeling. This allows 2 regression equation to be determined in a specific population based on the variation in osteon turnover in different populations. The aim of this study was to provide age estimation for Malaysian males. Ground undecalcified cross sections were prepared from long limb bones of 50 deceased males aged between 21 and 78 years. Ten microstructural parameters were measured and subjected to multivariate regression analysis. Results showed that osteon count had the highest correlation with age (R = 0.43), and age was estimated to be within 10.94 years of the true value in 98% of males. Cross validation of the equation on 50 individuals showed close correspondence of true ages with estimated ages. Further studies are needed to validate and expand these results.

  2. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population. PMID:27555738

  3. Monitoring low birth weight: an evaluation of international estimates and an updated estimation procedure.

    PubMed Central

    Blanc, Ann K.; Wardlaw, Tessa

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To critically examine the data used to produce estimates of the proportion of infants with low birth weight in developing countries and to describe biases in these data. To assess the effect of adjustment procedures on the estimates and propose a modified estimation procedure for international reporting purposes. METHODS: Mothers' reports about their recent births in 62 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 1990 and 2000 were analysed. The proportion of infants weighed at birth, characteristics of those weighed, extent of misreporting, and mothers' subjective assessments of their children's size at birth were examined. FINDINGS: In many developing countries the majority of infants were not weighed at birth. Those who were weighed were more likely to have mothers who live in urban areas and are educated, and to be born in a medical facility with assistance from medically trained personnel. Birth weights reported by mothers are "heaped" on multiples of 500 grams. CONCLUSION: Current survey-based estimates of the prevalence of low birth weight are biased substantially downwards. Two adjustments to reported data are recommended: a weighting procedure that combines reported birth weights with mothers' assessment of the child's size at birth, and categorization of one-quarter of the infants reported to have a birth weight of exactly 2500 grams as having low birth weight. Averaged over all surveys, these procedures increased the proportion classified as having low birth weight by 25%. We also recommend that the proportion of infants not weighed at birth be routinely reported. Efforts are needed to increase the weighing of newborns and the recording of their weights. PMID:15798841

  4. A parametric estimation procedure for relapse time distributions.

    PubMed

    Ahlström, L; Olsson, M; Nerman, O

    1999-06-01

    In a relapse clinical trial patients who have recovered from some recurrent disease (e.g., ulcer or cancer) are examined at a number of predetermined times. A relapse can be detected either at one of these planned inspections or at a spontaneous visit initiated by the patient because of symptoms. In the first case the observations of the time to relapse, X, is interval-censored by two predetermined time-points. In the second case the upper endpoint of the interval is an observation of the time to symptoms, Y. To model the progression of the disease we use a partially observable Markov process. This approach results in a bivariate phase-type distribution for the joint distribution of (X, Y). It is a flexible model which contains several natural distributions for X, and allows the conditional distributions of the marginals to smoothly depend on each other. To estimate the distributions involved we develop an EM-algorithm. The estimation procedure is evaluated and compared with a non-parametric method in a couple of example based on simulated data.

  5. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

    PubMed

    Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

  6. Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity.

  7. Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

    2010-01-01

    We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in

  8. Estimating cellular parameters through optimization procedures: elementary principles and applications

    PubMed Central

    Kimura, Akatsuki; Celani, Antonio; Nagao, Hiromichi; Stasevich, Timothy; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Construction of quantitative models is a primary goal of quantitative biology, which aims to understand cellular and organismal phenomena in a quantitative manner. In this article, we introduce optimization procedures to search for parameters in a quantitative model that can reproduce experimental data. The aim of optimization is to minimize the sum of squared errors (SSE) in a prediction or to maximize likelihood. A (local) maximum of likelihood or (local) minimum of the SSE can efficiently be identified using gradient approaches. Addition of a stochastic process enables us to identify the global maximum/minimum without becoming trapped in local maxima/minima. Sampling approaches take advantage of increasing computational power to test numerous sets of parameters in order to determine the optimum set. By combining Bayesian inference with gradient or sampling approaches, we can estimate both the optimum parameters and the form of the likelihood function related to the parameters. Finally, we introduce four examples of research that utilize parameter optimization to obtain biological insights from quantified data: transcriptional regulation, bacterial chemotaxis, morphogenesis, and cell cycle regulation. With practical knowledge of parameter optimization, cell and developmental biologists can develop realistic models that reproduce their observations and thus, obtain mechanistic insights into phenomena of interest. PMID:25784880

  9. Estimating cellular parameters through optimization procedures: elementary principles and applications.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Akatsuki; Celani, Antonio; Nagao, Hiromichi; Stasevich, Timothy; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Construction of quantitative models is a primary goal of quantitative biology, which aims to understand cellular and organismal phenomena in a quantitative manner. In this article, we introduce optimization procedures to search for parameters in a quantitative model that can reproduce experimental data. The aim of optimization is to minimize the sum of squared errors (SSE) in a prediction or to maximize likelihood. A (local) maximum of likelihood or (local) minimum of the SSE can efficiently be identified using gradient approaches. Addition of a stochastic process enables us to identify the global maximum/minimum without becoming trapped in local maxima/minima. Sampling approaches take advantage of increasing computational power to test numerous sets of parameters in order to determine the optimum set. By combining Bayesian inference with gradient or sampling approaches, we can estimate both the optimum parameters and the form of the likelihood function related to the parameters. Finally, we introduce four examples of research that utilize parameter optimization to obtain biological insights from quantified data: transcriptional regulation, bacterial chemotaxis, morphogenesis, and cell cycle regulation. With practical knowledge of parameter optimization, cell and developmental biologists can develop realistic models that reproduce their observations and thus, obtain mechanistic insights into phenomena of interest.

  10. Precision of two methods for estimating age from burbot otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Edwards, W.H.; Stapanian, M.A.; Stoneman, A.T.

    2011-01-01

    Lower reproductive success and older age structure are associated with many burbot (Lota lota L.) populations that are declining or of conservation concern. Therefore, reliable methods for estimating the age of burbot are critical for effective assessment and management. In Lake Erie, burbot populations have declined in recent years due to the combined effects of an aging population (&xmacr; = 10 years in 2007) and extremely low recruitment since 2002. We examined otoliths from burbot (N = 91) collected in Lake Erie in 2007 and compared the estimates of burbot age by two agers, each using two established methods (cracked-and-burned and thin-section) of estimating ages from burbot otoliths. One ager was experienced at estimating age from otoliths, the other was a novice. Agreement (precision) between the two agers was higher for the thin-section method, particularly at ages 6–11 years, based on linear regression analyses and 95% confidence intervals. As expected, precision between the two methods was higher for the more experienced ager. Both agers reported that the thin sections offered clearer views of the annuli, particularly near the margins on otoliths from burbot ages ≥8. Slides for the thin sections required some costly equipment and more than 2 days to prepare. In contrast, preparing the cracked-and-burned samples was comparatively inexpensive and quick. We suggest use of the thin-section method for estimating the age structure of older burbot populations.

  11. Virtual estimates of fastening strength for pedicle screw implantation procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linte, Cristian A.; Camp, Jon J.; Augustine, Kurt E.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Robb, Richard A.; Holmes, David R.

    2014-03-01

    Traditional 2D images provide limited use for accurate planning of spine interventions, mainly due to the complex 3D anatomy of the spine and close proximity of nerve bundles and vascular structures that must be avoided during the procedure. Our previously developed clinician-friendly platform for spine surgery planning takes advantage of 3D pre-operative images, to enable oblique reformatting and 3D rendering of individual or multiple vertebrae, interactive templating, and placement of virtual pedicle implants. Here we extend the capabilities of the planning platform and demonstrate how the virtual templating approach not only assists with the selection of the optimal implant size and trajectory, but can also be augmented to provide surrogate estimates of the fastening strength of the implanted pedicle screws based on implant dimension and bone mineral density of the displaced bone substrate. According to the failure theories, each screw withstands a maximum holding power that is directly proportional to the screw diameter (D), the length of the in-bone segm,ent of the screw (L), and the density (i.e., bone mineral density) of the pedicle body. In this application, voxel intensity is used as a surrogate measure of the bone mineral density (BMD) of the pedicle body segment displaced by the screw. We conducted an initial assessment of the developed platform using retrospective pre- and post-operative clinical 3D CT data from four patients who underwent spine surgery, consisting of a total of 26 pedicle screws implanted in the lumbar spine. The Fastening Strength of the planned implants was directly assessed by estimating the intensity - area product across the pedicle volume displaced by the virtually implanted screw. For post-operative assessment, each vertebra was registered to its homologous counterpart in the pre-operative image using an intensity-based rigid registration followed by manual adjustment. Following registration, the Fastening Strength was computed

  12. 40 CFR 98.475 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... procedures cannot be followed to measure CO2 concentration, the following missing data procedures must be...) Whenever the monitoring procedures of this subpart cannot be followed to measure quarterly quantity of CO2... another method listed in § 98.474(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is...

  13. 40 CFR 98.475 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... procedures cannot be followed to measure CO2 concentration, the following missing data procedures must be...) Whenever the monitoring procedures of this subpart cannot be followed to measure quarterly quantity of CO2... another method listed in § 98.474(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is...

  14. 40 CFR 98.475 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... procedures cannot be followed to measure CO2 concentration, the following missing data procedures must be...) Whenever the monitoring procedures of this subpart cannot be followed to measure quarterly quantity of CO2... another method listed in § 98.474(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is...

  15. 40 CFR 98.475 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... procedures cannot be followed to measure CO2 concentration, the following missing data procedures must be...) Whenever the monitoring procedures of this subpart cannot be followed to measure quarterly quantity of CO2... another method listed in § 98.474(a)(3) cannot be used, a quarterly concentration value that is...

  16. Estimating age: college males versus convicted male child sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Robert; Romero, Sergio; Patrick, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Two samples, male college students and convicted male child sex offenders, are compared on their abilities to accurately estimate the age group of a series of photographs of a sole female ranging in age from 11 to 29. Both samples tend to overestimate the age group of the subject photos, and no significant difference was found between college students and convicted child sex offenders in their ability to estimate the age of females. Both groups are compared demographically, and only limited differences were found. The implications are discussed in regard to theory and prevention of child sexual abuse.

  17. Validation of Random Sampling as an Estimation Procedure for Lyme Disease Surveillance in Massachusetts and Minnesota.

    PubMed

    Bjork, J; Brown, C; Friedlander, H; Schiffman, E; Neitzel, D

    2016-08-03

    Many disease surveillance programs, including the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Minnesota Department of Health, are challenged by marked increases in Lyme disease (LD) reports. The purpose of this study was to retrospectively analyse LD reports from 2005 through 2012 to determine whether key epidemiologic characteristics were statistically indistinguishable when an estimation procedure based on sampling was utilized. Estimates of the number of LD cases were produced by taking random 20% and 50% samples of laboratory-only reports, multiplying by 5 or 2, respectively, and adding the number of provider-reported confirmed cases. Estimated LD case counts were compared to observed, confirmed cases each year. In addition, the proportions of cases that were male, were ≤12 years of age, had erythema migrans (EM), had any late manifestation of LD, had a specific late manifestation of LD (arthritis, cranial neuritis or carditis) or lived in a specific region were compared to the proportions of cases identified using standard surveillance to determine whether estimated proportions were representative of observed proportions. Results indicate that the estimated counts of confirmed LD cases were consistently similar to observed, confirmed LD cases and accurately conveyed temporal trends. Most of the key demographic and disease manifestation characteristics were not significantly different (P < 0.05), although estimates for the 20% random sample demonstrated greater deviation than the 50% random sample. Applying this estimation procedure in endemic states could conserve limited resources by reducing follow-up effort while maintaining the ability to track disease trends.

  18. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    SciTech Connect

    Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl; Barstow, Del R; Boehnen, Chris Bensing

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

  19. 40 CFR 98.355 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Industrial Wastewater Treatment § 98.355 Procedures... wastewater flow entering an anaerobic wastewater treatment process, the substitute data value must be...

  20. 40 CFR 98.355 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Industrial Wastewater Treatment § 98.355 Procedures... wastewater flow entering an anaerobic wastewater treatment process, the substitute data value must be...

  1. 40 CFR 98.355 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Industrial Wastewater Treatment § 98.355 Procedures... wastewater flow entering an anaerobic wastewater treatment process, the substitute data value must be...

  2. 40 CFR 98.355 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Industrial Wastewater Treatment § 98.355 Procedures... wastewater flow entering an anaerobic wastewater treatment process, the substitute data value must be...

  3. 40 CFR 98.165 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Hydrogen Production § 98.165 Procedures for...., hydrogen production, electrical load, and operating hours). You must document and keep records of...

  4. 40 CFR 98.165 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Hydrogen Production § 98.165 Procedures for...., hydrogen production, electrical load, and operating hours). You must document and keep records of...

  5. 40 CFR 98.165 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Hydrogen Production § 98.165 Procedures for...., hydrogen production, electrical load, and operating hours). You must document and keep records of...

  6. 40 CFR 98.165 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Hydrogen Production § 98.165 Procedures for...., hydrogen production, electrical load, and operating hours). You must document and keep records of...

  7. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  8. Estimates of a hedonic ageing equation for partner search.

    PubMed

    Cameron, S; Collins, A

    1997-01-01

    "This paper presents the first attempts by economists to estimate an equation of the demand curve for sexual relationship partner attributes. The focus is on the age of partner sought as the item demanded. A sample of newspaper ¿personal ads' is used to construct the demand curve. The estimates show clear evidence of age trade offs in partner search which vary by gender. There is evidence that financially constrained men will trade down in terms of market desirability, i.e., up in partner age, but also that women will offer to buy younger partners with financial signalling." (EXCERPT)

  9. 40 CFR 98.235 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    .... 98.235 Section 98.235 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... emissions estimation or measurements, you must repeat the estimation or measurement activity for those... for the previous year, at least 30 days must separate emissions estimation or measurements for...

  10. 40 CFR 98.235 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    .... 98.235 Section 98.235 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... emissions estimation or measurements, you must repeat the estimation or measurement activity for those... for the previous year, at least 30 days must separate emissions estimation or measurements for...

  11. How old am I? Age estimation in living adults: a case report.

    PubMed

    Cattaneo, C; De Angelis, D; Ruspa, M; Gibelli, D; Cameriere, R; Grandi, M

    2008-12-01

    Age estimation is a common task in forensic medicine. Odontologists are frequently involved in the age assessment of human remains or living juveniles. The need to estimate the age of living individuals is becoming more frequent, because of the increasing number of immigrants (illegal or otherwise) without acceptable identification documents and with missing or uncertain birth dates. Whereas age estimation in subadults is usually performed by methods based on the physiological growth of bones and teeth, in the case of living adults age determination is more difficult, because body maturation has come to an end and the most commonly used procedures in forensics on human remains are too invasive for the living individual. The following case report aims at highlighting the difficulties of performing age estimation in the living adult and the importance of a multidisciplinary approach including forensic odontology: a middle-aged woman from Ethiopia who was supposed to be 62 years old (according to one set of documents), was removed from employment lists as she had reached the retirement age for Italy. However another set of documents indicated a younger age (46 years). Hormonal dosage of E2 (17-β estradiol) and FSH (Follicle Stimulating Hormone) showed an age close to the begininng of menopause. An experimental dental method, based on the decrease of canine pulp chamber with age, was performed in order to obtain more information: the result was an estimation of a 47-57 age range. Combined results suggested that it was more likely that the actual age of the woman was closer to 46 than to 62.

  12. Estimation of Stratospheric Age Spectrum from Chemical Tracers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Polansky, Brian

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a technique to diagnose the stratospheric age spectrum and estimate the mean age of air using the distributions of at least four constituents with different photochemical lifetimes. We demonstrate that the technique works using a 3D CTM and then apply the technique to UMS CLAES January 1993 observations of CFC11, CFC12, CH4 and N2O. Our results are generally in agreement with mean age of air estimates from the chemical model and from observations of SF6 and CO2; however, the mean age estimates show an intrusion of very young tropical air into the mid-latitude stratosphere. This feature is consistent with mixing of high N20 air out of the tropics during the westerly phase of the QBO.

  13. 40 CFR 98.175 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Iron and Steel Production § 98.175 Procedures for... the site-specific emission factor if data on the CO2 emission rate, process production rate or...

  14. 40 CFR 98.175 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Iron and Steel Production § 98.175 Procedures for... factor if data on the CO2 emission rate, process production rate or process feed rate are missing....

  15. 40 CFR 98.55 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Adipic Acid Production § 98.55 Procedures for... (a) and (b) of this section. (a) For each missing value of monthly adipic acid production,...

  16. 40 CFR 98.55 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Adipic Acid Production § 98.55 Procedures for... (a) and (b) of this section. (a) For each missing value of monthly adipic acid production,...

  17. 40 CFR 98.465 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Industrial Waste Landfills § 98.465 Procedures for... paragraph (b) of this section. (b) For industrial waste landfills with gas collection systems, follow...

  18. 40 CFR 98.465 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Industrial Waste Landfills § 98.465 Procedures for... paragraph (b) of this section. (b) For industrial waste landfills with gas collection systems, follow...

  19. Forensic age estimation of living individuals: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Valeria; De Donno, Antonio; Marrone, Maricla; Campobasso, Carlo Pietro; Introna, Francesco

    2009-12-15

    In recent years, skeletal age determination has become increasingly important in criminal investigations for determining the age of living individuals. To increase diagnostic accuracy, a physical examination, an X-ray examination of the left hand, as well as a dental examination including the determination of the dental status and an X-ray of the dentition should always be performed. In this work, the authors analyze a sample of 52 illegal immigrants who came under their observation in the period from May 1989 to September 2007. A statistical analysis of the results of dental and skeletal age estimations was performed as well as an analysis between the reported and assessed ages. The results showed a significant difference between reported age and assessed biological age (p<0.001); however, no statistical difference was shown between skeletal and assessed dental age (p=0.431).

  20. Estimation and evidence in forensic anthropology: age-at-death.

    PubMed

    Konigsberg, Lyle W; Herrmann, Nicholas P; Wescott, Daniel J; Kimmerle, Erin H

    2008-05-01

    A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage."Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.

  1. Reliability estimation procedures and CARE: The Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, F. P.

    1971-01-01

    Ultrareliable fault-tolerant onboard digital systems for spacecraft intended for long mission life exploration of the outer planets are under development. The design of systems involving self-repair and fault-tolerance leads to the companion problem of quantifying and evaluating the survival probability of the system for the mission under consideration and the constraints imposed upon the system. Methods have been developed to (1) model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations; (2) compute survival probability, mean life, and many other reliability predictive functions with respect to various systems and mission parameters; (3) perform sensitivity analysis of the system with respect to mission parameters; and (4) quantitatively compare competitive fault-tolerant systems. Various measures of comparison are offered. To automate the procedures of reliability mathematical modeling and evaluation, the CARE (computer-aided reliability estimation) program was developed. CARE is an interactive program residing on the UNIVAC 1108 system, which makes the above calculations and facilitates report preparation by providing output in tabular form, graphical 2-dimensional plots, and 3-dimensional projections. The reliability estimation of fault-tolerant organization by means of the CARE program is described.

  2. Age estimation of unidentified corpses by measurement of root translucency.

    PubMed

    Olze, A; Geserick, G; Schmeling, A

    2004-12-01

    To evaluate the root dentine translucency technique for age analysis, age estimates carried out at the Institute of Legal Medicine at the Charité University Hospital in Berlin between 1998 and 2002 of unidentified corpses were subjected to retrospective review. Teeth suitable for evaluation were obtained from 33 corpses of undisputed identity. Root translucency was measured at intervals of half a millimetre. Appropriate reference studies were used to translate the measurements obtained into estimated age. In 18 cases these estimates proved correct. In 14 cases the deviation lay within +/-10 years. In one case of known drug abuse combined with diabetic metabolism, two factors which promote the advance of root translucency, the deviation was 12 years. It was concluded that the described technique, which requires little time and money and is easy to apply, can produce sound results in the middle age group (30-60). To avoid seriously inaccurate estimates in individual cases, the result should always be verified critically against an assessment of the overall stomatognathic system and other post-mortem findings of relevance to age.

  3. Age estimation charts for a modern Australian population.

    PubMed

    Blenkin, Matthew; Taylor, Jane

    2012-09-10

    Calculation of the biological age of an individual has application in many fields of dentistry. It can be used to determine the appropriate timing of interventionist treatment for example in orthodontics; to analyse the developmental stage of an individual relative to the general population in the management of genetic or congenital conditions which disturb growth; and to estimate the age of a living or deceased person for forensic purposes. Many of the techniques used to estimate age can be quite time consuming to complete. This time component is a major disadvantage in a forensic context when age estimations in mass disasters are required as part of the post-mortem examination process. Consequently, forensic practitioners have tended to use the simpler but less reliable atlas style techniques of Schour and Massler and Ubelaker in these situations. For mass disaster situations, such as the recent Victorian Bushfires, it would be advantageous to have access to Australian specific data in the convenient Schour and Massler format. This project reinterpreted the Australian data previously collected by Blenkin and other relevant studies and applied it to a schematic similar to that of Ubelaker to develop a reliable, convenient and contemporary reference for use in age estimation.

  4. A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.

    2015-08-01

    Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.

  5. Objective measurement of shade color in age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Vaidya, Sharad; Ahuja, Nitin; Bajaj, Puneet; Kapoor, Charu; Sabarwal, Robin; Rajpal, Karan

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is an important subspecialty of forensic medicine. Dental hard tissues are highly resistant to degradation and putrefaction. Enamel is translucent and varies in color from light yellow to grey white. The color of the teeth has been reported to be affected by chronological age. Enamel color may also depend on environmental factors viz. diet, occupational habits, vitamin deficiencies, fluoride level in drinking water etc., It has been found that color changes in dentin vary from white to yellow. Studies have been done to measure the dentin color for age estimation. Aim: To find a correlation between the enamel color and chronological age and secondly to estimate the age of an individual from enamel color. Material and Methods: A total of 300 patients visiting the outpatient department of oral medicine and radiology were selected. Out of those, 150 were men and 150 women. The patients were divided into V groups based on the age. A thorough case history was taken for all the patients. Maxillary Central and Lateral incisor was used for the estimation of shade. The enamel color was evaluated using a VITA classical shade guide. Statistical Analysis: Data were exported to an Excel spread sheet and statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS. Linear regression analysis was used to find correlations between age and enamel shade. Results: In the group 1 and 2 i.e. from 15 to 36 years, the shades A 2 and B 2 (reddish hue) was found to be most common. While in the group 3 and 4, shades ranged from A 3 to B 3 (brownish to yellowish hue). In the patients above 59 years i.e. group 5 the enamel shade with greyish hue was found to be most common. Conclusion: Age determination using enamel color can be tried in forensic cases in the identification of individuals with no birth records. PMID:26816455

  6. 40 CFR 98.125 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... incident. (c) For each missing value of the mass produced, fed into the production process, fed into the transformation process, or fed into destruction devices, the substitute value of that parameter must be a... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Fluorinated Gas Production § 98.125 Procedures...

  7. 40 CFR 98.195 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Lime Manufacturing § 98.195 Procedures for... used in the GHG emissions calculations is required (e.g., oxide content, quantity of lime products, etc... each missing value of the quantity of lime produced (by lime type), and quantity of...

  8. 40 CFR 98.295 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Soda Ash Manufacturing § 98.295 Procedures for... inorganic carbon content of either soda ash or trona, the substitute data value shall be the arithmetic... missing value of either the monthly soda ash production or the trona consumption, the substitute...

  9. 40 CFR 98.295 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Soda Ash Manufacturing § 98.295 Procedures for... inorganic carbon content of either soda ash or trona, the substitute data value shall be the arithmetic... missing value of either the monthly soda ash production or the trona consumption, the substitute...

  10. 40 CFR 98.295 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Soda Ash Manufacturing § 98.295 Procedures for... inorganic carbon content of either soda ash or trona, the substitute data value shall be the arithmetic... missing value of either the monthly soda ash production or the trona consumption, the substitute...

  11. 40 CFR 98.295 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Soda Ash Manufacturing § 98.295 Procedures for... inorganic carbon content of either soda ash or trona, the substitute data value shall be the arithmetic... missing value of either the monthly soda ash production or the trona consumption, the substitute...

  12. 40 CFR 98.425 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... cannot be followed to measure quarterly mass flow or volumetric flow of CO2, the most appropriate of the following missing data procedures shall be followed: (1) A quarterly CO2 mass flow or volumetric flow value... current reporting year. (2) A quarterly CO2 mass flow or volumetric flow value that is missing may...

  13. 40 CFR 98.425 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... cannot be followed to measure quarterly mass flow or volumetric flow of CO2, the most appropriate of the following missing data procedures shall be followed: (1) A quarterly CO2 mass flow or volumetric flow value... current reporting year. (2) A quarterly CO2 mass flow or volumetric flow value that is missing may...

  14. 40 CFR 98.205 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Magnesium Production § 98.205 Procedures for... magnesium production during the missing data period by the average cover or carrier gas usage rate from the... over the period of comparable operation (kg). Mg = The magnesium produced or fed into the process...

  15. 40 CFR 98.205 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Magnesium Production § 98.205 Procedures for... magnesium production during the missing data period by the average cover or carrier gas usage rate from the... over the period of comparable operation (kg). Mg = The magnesium produced or fed into the process...

  16. 40 CFR 98.205 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Magnesium Production § 98.205 Procedures for... magnesium production during the missing data period by the average cover or carrier gas usage rate from the... over the period of comparable operation (kg). Mg = The magnesium produced or fed into the process...

  17. 40 CFR 98.205 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Magnesium Production § 98.205 Procedures for... magnesium production during the missing data period by the average cover or carrier gas usage rate from the... over the period of comparable operation (kg). Mg = The magnesium produced or fed into the process...

  18. 40 CFR 98.65 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Aluminum Production § 98.65 Procedures for... aluminum production using Tier 1 method per Equation F-8 of this section. ER30OC09.033 Where: ECO2 = CO2... factor (1.6 metric tons CO2/metric ton aluminum produced). MPp = Metal production from prebake...

  19. 40 CFR 98.65 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Aluminum Production § 98.65 Procedures for... aluminum production per Equation F-8 of this section. ER30OC09.033 Where: ECO2 = CO2 emissions from anode... metric tons CO2/metric ton aluminum produced). MPp = Metal production from prebake process (metric...

  20. 40 CFR 98.65 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Aluminum Production § 98.65 Procedures for... aluminum production per Equation F-8 of this section. ER30OC09.033 Where: ECO2 = CO2 emissions from anode... metric tons CO2/metric ton aluminum produced). MPp = Metal production from prebake process (metric...

  1. 40 CFR 98.65 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Aluminum Production § 98.65 Procedures for... aluminum production per Equation F-8 of this section. ER30OC09.033 Where: ECO2 = CO2 emissions from anode... metric tons CO2/metric ton aluminum produced). MPp = Metal production from prebake process (metric...

  2. 40 CFR 98.65 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Aluminum Production § 98.65 Procedures for... aluminum production per Equation F-8 of this section. ER30OC09.033 Where: ECO2 = CO2 emissions from anode... metric tons CO2/metric ton aluminum produced). MPp = Metal production from prebake process (metric...

  3. 40 CFR 98.395 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING Suppliers of Petroleum Products § 98.395 Procedures... in § 98.394(a) cannot be followed to measure the quantity of one or more petroleum products, natural gas liquids, types of biomass, feedstocks, or crude oil batches during any period (e.g., if a...

  4. 40 CFR 98.425 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    .... 98.425 Section 98.425 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... be followed to measure quarterly mass flow or volumetric flow of CO2, the most appropriate of the following missing data procedures shall be followed: (1) A quarterly CO2 mass flow or volumetric flow...

  5. 40 CFR 98.255 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... is required (e.g., concentrations, flow rates, fuel heating values, carbon content values). Therefore... procedures in subpart C of this part. (b) For each missing value of the heat content, carbon content, or molecular weight of the fuel, substitute the arithmetic average of the quality-assured values of...

  6. Age estimation from dental cementum incremental lines and periodontal disease.

    PubMed

    Dias, P E M; Beaini, T L; Melani, R F H

    2010-12-01

    Age estimation by counting incremental lines in cementum added to the average age of tooth eruption is considered an accurate method by some authors, while others reject it stating weak correlation between estimated and actual age. The aim of this study was to evaluate this technique and check the influence of periodontal disease on age estimates by analyzing both the number of cementum lines and the correlation between cementum thickness and actual age on freshly extracted teeth. Thirty one undecalcified ground cross sections of approximately 30 µm, from 25 teeth were prepared, observed, photographed and measured. Images were enhanced by software and counts were made by one observer, and the results compared with two control-observers. There was moderate correlation ((r)=0.58) for the entire sample, with mean error of 9.7 years. For teeth with periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.03 with a mean error of 22.6 years. For teeth without periodontal pathologies, correlation was 0.74 with mean error of 1.6 years. There was correlation of 0.69 between cementum thickness and known age for the entire sample, 0.25 for teeth with periodontal problems and 0.75 for teeth without periodontal pathologies. The technique was reliable for periodontally sound teeth, but not for periodontally diseased teeth.

  7. Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

    PubMed

    Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

    2015-04-01

    Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures.

  8. Data-Dependent Label Distribution Learning for Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    He, Zhouzhou; Li, Xi; Zhang, Zhongfei; Wu, Fei; Geng, Xin; Zhang, Yaqing; Yang, Ming-Hsuan; Zhuang, Yueting

    2017-01-18

    As an important and challenging problem in computer vision, face age estimation is typically cast as a classification or regression problem over a set of face samples with respect to several ordinal age labels, which have intrinsically cross-age correlations across adjacent age dimensions. As a result, such correlations usually lead to the age label ambiguities of the face samples. Namely, each face sample is associated with a latent label distribution that encodes the cross-age correlation information on label ambiguities. Motivated by this observation, we propose a totally data-driven label distribution learning approach to adaptively learn the latent label distributions. The proposed approach is capable of effectively discovering the intrinsic age distribution patterns for cross-age correlation analysis on the basis of the local context structures of face samples. Without any prior assumptions on the forms of label distribution learning, our approach is able to flexibly model the sample-specific context aware label distribution properties by solving a multi-task problem, which jointly optimizes the tasks of age-label distribution learning and age prediction for individuals. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  9. Forensic age estimation through evaluation of the apophyseal ossification of the iliac crest in Western Chinese.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-ai; Chen, Xiao-gang; Li, Yuan; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2015-07-01

    The criminal age estimation procedures have gained greatest significance to date, a reliable age diagnostics may depend on data of skeletal maturation from different socioeconomic status. In order to establish the iliac crest apophysis as a possible criterion for forensic age estimation in a different socioeconomic status, and to examine the pace of ossification for the iliac crest apophysis in Western Chinese, one thousand seven hundreds and seventy-seven conventional pelvic radiographs relating to West China Han group routinely taken between January 2010 and June 2012 have been sighted. The data was analysed with separation of the sexes. The results indicated that stage 2a was last observed in females at the age of 17.00 and in males at the age of 18.01, stage 3a was first achieved in females at the age of 14.46 and in males at the age of 15.31, stage 4 was observed between 17.95 and 25.98 years for male and between 18.36 and 25.95 years for female. By comparison with previous studies, our research indicated that Western Chinese presents a delaying development for the iliac crest apophysis. Furthermore, the present study with eight stages of ossification for the iliac crest offers a valuable alternative method of estimation of 18 years of age for Western Chinese.

  10. Comparing adaptive procedures for estimating the psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task.

    PubMed

    Shen, Yi

    2013-05-01

    A subject's sensitivity to a stimulus variation can be studied by estimating the psychometric function. Generally speaking, three parameters of the psychometric function are of interest: the performance threshold, the slope of the function, and the rate at which attention lapses occur. In the present study, three psychophysical procedures were used to estimate the three-parameter psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task. These were an up-down staircase (up-down) procedure, an entropy-based Bayesian (entropy) procedure, and an updated maximum-likelihood (UML) procedure. Data collected from four young, normal-hearing listeners showed that while all three procedures provided similar estimates of the threshold parameter, the up-down procedure performed slightly better in estimating the slope and lapse rate for 200 trials of data collection. When the lapse rate was increased by mixing in random responses for the three adaptive procedures, the larger lapse rate was especially detrimental to the efficiency of the up-down procedure, and the UML procedure provided better estimates of the threshold and slope than did the other two procedures.

  11. Estimating goodwill: an application of Pine's procedures for hospices.

    PubMed

    Doka, Kenneth J; Pine, Vanderlynn

    2004-01-01

    Hospice care is a philosophy as well as a business. As a business, especially in the current healthcare environment, it is subject to many of the same forces that affect other businesses, such as acquisitions, sales, and mergers. Yet, estimating the value of a hospice is problematic, since its most valued asset (the reputation and goodwill that it has generated within the communities it serves) is intangible. This article explores the problem of assessing the value of a hospice, applying Pine's model for estimating goodwill in funeral service as a useful approach for hospices. The article offers assumptions for assessment and examples of suggested approaches.

  12. Accuracy of the estimation of dental age in comparison with chronological age in a Spanish sample of 2641 living subjects using the Demirjian and Nolla methods.

    PubMed

    Melo, María; Ata-Ali, Javier

    2017-01-01

    Age estimation is an important procedure in forensic medicine and is carried out for a number of reasons. For living persons, age estimation is performed in order to assess whether a child has attained the age of criminal responsibility, in scenarios involving rape, kidnapping or marriage, in premature births, adoption procedures, illegal immigration, pediatric endocrine diseases and orthodontic malocclusion, as well as in circumstances in which the birth certificate is not available or the records are suspect. According to data from the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), the number of people seeking refugee status continued to increase in the last years, driven by the wars in Syria and Iraq, as well as by conflict and instability in Afghanistan, Eritrea and elsewhere. The objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of estimating dental age versus chronological age using the Nolla and Demirjian methods in a Spanish population. A final sample of 2641 panoramic X-rays corresponding to Spanish patients (1322 males and 1319 females) between 7-21 years of age was analyzed. Dental age was assessed using the Nolla and Demirjian methods, establishing comparisons with mean chronological age based on the Student t-test for paired samples, followed by the generation of a linear regression model. Both methods showed slight discrepancy between dental and chronological age. On examining the reproducibility of the Nolla and Demirjian methods, technical errors of 0.84% and 0.62%, respectively, were observed. On average, the Nolla method was found to estimate an age 0.213years younger than the chronological age, while the Demirjian method estimated an age 0.853years older than the chronological age. Linear combination of the mean Nolla and Demirjian estimates increased the predictive capacity to 99.2%. In conclusion the Nolla and Demirjian methods were found to be accurate in estimating chronological age from dental age in a Spanish population. The error

  13. Age estimation using level of eyebrow and eyelash whitening

    PubMed Central

    Kantarcı, Feride Aylin; Kantarcı, Muhammed Nabi; Bilgi, Sefer

    2014-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to determine whether eyebrow and eyelash whitening is an effective parameter in age estimation. Material/Methods We evaluated 1545 patients. Age groups were 1–10, 11–20, 21–30, 31–40, 41–50, 51–60, 61–70, 71–80, and 81–90 years. Level of whitening was categorized as level 0: no whitening, level 1: 1–3 strands, level 2: 3–10 strands, level 3: 10 strands–2/3 whitening, level 4: >3/4 whitening. Results Mean age was 42.39±20.01. While there was no eyebrow whitening in 87% of the subjects, level 4 whitening of eyebrows was observed in 0,8% of the subjects. There was no eyelash whitening in 97,7% of the subjects and no level 4 eyelash whitening was detected in any subject. Men had significantly more level 1, 2, 3, and 4 eyebrow whitening compared with women. There was no gender difference in terms of eyelash whitening level. There was no eyebrow and eyelash whitening in subjects age 1–40 years; whitening began in the 41–50 years age group and increased with age in other groups. Mean age was 39.59±19.63 years in subjects with no eyebrow whitening; 59 years in level 1, 61 years in level 2, 63 years in level 3, and 69 years in level 4 eyebrow whitening. Mean age was 41.85±19.87 in subjects with no eyelash whitening; and 63.57±10.75 in those with whitening. Conclusions Particularly after 41–50 years of age, level of eyebrow and eyelash whitening may be among a useful age estimation parameter. PMID:24448310

  14. Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.

    1999-01-01

    The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

  15. The role of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry in estimating the chronological age of living individuals in Hamburg, Germany.

    PubMed

    Mansour, Hussam; Fuhrmann, Andreas; Paradowski, Ioana; van Well, Eilin Jopp; Püschel, Klaus

    2017-03-01

    Age estimation represents one of the primary responsibilities of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry. It is an integral procedure aiming to estimate the chronological age of an individual, whose age is either unknown or doubtful, by means of assessing the stage of dental, skeletal, and physical development. The present publication reviews the methods and procedures used in estimating the age of young living individuals as well as the experiences of the Institute of Legal Medicine in Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany, during the last 25 years. From 1990 to 2015, 4223 age estimations were carried out in Hamburg. During this time, forensic age estimation was requested by different concerned authorities including courts, the foreigners' registration office (Zentrale Ausländerbehörde), and the state office of education and consultation (Landesbetrieb Erziehung und Beratung). In the context of judicial proceedings, orthopantomograms, as well as X-ray examinations of both the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses were carried out in accordance with AGFAD recommendations. For investigations not associated with judicial proceedings, orthopantomogram examinations play a key role in the process of age estimation, due to their high diagnostic value and low radiation exposure. Since 2009, mainly unaccompanied young refugees were examined for age estimation. Orthopantomograms and clinical-physical examinations have been used as essential steps in this context to determine whether an individual is 18 years or less. Additional X-ray examinations of the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses have been used less frequently.

  16. 40 CFR 98.265 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... for all such estimates. (a) For each missing value of the inorganic carbon content of phosphate rock...-assured values of inorganic carbon contents of phosphate rock of origin i (see Equation Z-1 of this... quality-assured data on inorganic carbon contents of phosphate rock of origin i are available prior to...

  17. Radiometer calibration procedure and beacon attenuation estimation reference level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crane, Robert K.

    1994-01-01

    The primary objectives are to compare radiometer attenuation with beacon attenuation and to compare sky temperature estimates with calculations using simultaneous meteorological data. Secondary objectives are: (1) noise diode and reference load measurements and (2) to adjust for outside temperature and component temperature changes.

  18. 40 CFR 98.265 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... estimating missing data. (a) For each missing value of the inorganic carbon content of phosphate rock or... of the quality-assured values of inorganic carbon contents of phosphate rock of origin i from samples... content of phosphate rock (by origin), you must use the appropriate default factor provided in Table...

  19. 40 CFR 98.265 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... estimating missing data. (a) For each missing value of the inorganic carbon content of phosphate rock or... of the quality-assured values of inorganic carbon contents of phosphate rock of origin i from samples... content of phosphate rock (by origin), you must use the appropriate default factor provided in Table...

  20. Non-parametric estimation of age-related centiles over wide age ranges.

    PubMed

    Pan, H Q; Goldstein, H; Yang, Q

    1990-01-01

    A new method for estimating age-related centile curves has been developed, which is suitable for measurement covering a wide age range. The method was used to calculate weight centile curves of 8995 children from birth to 6 years obtained by the Collaborating Centre for Physical Growth and Psychosocial Development of Children in Shanghai, China.

  1. Dental age estimation using Willems method: A digital orthopantomographic study

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Krishnamraju, P. V.; Prasanth, P. S.; Sanghvi, Praveen; Lata Reddy, M. Asha; Jyotsna, S.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, age estimation has become increasingly important in living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as a birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army, and retirement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of left seven mandibular teeth for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population using Willems method. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomogram of 332 subjects (166 males, 166 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular teeth (from central incisor to the second molar on left quadrant) development was undertaken and DA was assessed using Willems method. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males (r = 0.71 and females (r = 0.88). The overall mean difference between the estimated DA and CA for males was 0.69 ± 2.14 years (P < 0.001) while for females, it was 0.08 ± 1.34 years (P > 0.05). Willems method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.69 years and females by 0.08 years and showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. The mean difference between DA and CA according to Willems method was 0.39 years and is statistically significant (P < 0.05). Conclusion: This study showed significant relation between DA and CA. Thus, digital radiographic assessment of mandibular teeth development can be used to generate mean DA using Willems method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. PMID:25191076

  2. Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.

    2014-05-14

    Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.

  3. Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.

    2012-12-01

    This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;

  4. Dental age estimation in Brazilian HIV children using Willems' method.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Rafael Boschetti; da Silva Assunção, Luciana Reichert; Franco, Ademir; Zaroni, Fábio Marzullo; Holderbaum, Rejane Maria; Fernandes, Ângela

    2015-12-01

    The notification of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in Brazilian children was first reported in 1984. Since that time more than 21 thousand children became infected. Approximately 99.6% of the children aged less than 13 years old are vertically infected. In this context, most of the children are abandoned after birth, or lose their relatives in a near future, growing with uncertain identification. The present study aims to estimate the dental age of Brazilian HIV patients in face of healthy patients paired by age and gender. The sample consisted of 160 panoramic radiographs of male (n: 80) and female (n: 80) patients aged between 4 and 15 years (mean age: 8.88 years), divided into HIV (n: 80) and control (n: 80) groups. The sample was analyzed by three trained examiners, using Willems' method, 2001. Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied to test intra- and inter-examiner agreement, and Student paired t-test was used to determine the age association between HIV and control groups. Intra-examiner (ICC: from 0.993 to 0.997) and inter-examiner (ICC: from 0.991 to 0.995) agreement tests indicated high reproducibility of the method between the examiners (P<0.01). Willems' method revealed discrete statistical overestimation in HIV (2.86 months; P=0.019) and control (1.90 months; P=0.039) groups. However, stratified analysis by gender indicate that overestimation were only concentrated in male HIV (3.85 months; P=0.001) and control (2.86 months; P=0.022) patients. The significant statistical differences are not clinically relevant once only few months of discrepancy are detected applying Willems' method in a Brazilian HIV sample, making this method highly recommended for dental age estimation of both HIV and healthy children with unknown age.

  5. Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.

    PubMed

    Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika

    2013-12-10

    Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age.

  6. Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu

    2005-10-01

    We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.

  7. Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects.

    PubMed

    Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu

    2005-10-01

    We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.

  8. Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  9. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2013-09-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  10. Incorporating partially identified sample segments into acreage estimation procedures: Estimates using only observations from the current year

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sielken, R. L., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    Several methods of estimating individual crop acreages using a mixture of completely identified and partially identified (generic) segments from a single growing year are derived and discussed. A small Monte Carlo study of eight estimators is presented. The relative empirical behavior of these estimators is discussed as are the effects of segment sample size and amount of partial identification. The principle recommendations are (1) to not exclude, but rather incorporate partially identified sample segments into the estimation procedure, (2) try to avoid having a large percentage (say 80%) of only partially identified segments, in the sample, and (3) use the maximum likelihood estimator although the weighted least squares estimator and least squares ratio estimator both perform almost as well. Sets of spring small grains (North Dakota) data were used.

  11. Estimation procedures to measure and monitor failure rates of components during thermal-vacuum testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, R. E.; Kruger, R.

    1980-01-01

    Estimation procedures are described for measuring component failure rates, for comparing the failure rates of two different groups of components, and for formulating confidence intervals for testing hypotheses (based on failure rates) that the two groups perform similarly or differently. Appendix A contains an example of an analysis in which these methods are applied to investigate the characteristics of two groups of spacecraft components. The estimation procedures are adaptable to system level testing and to monitoring failure characteristics in orbit.

  12. The multicategory case of the sequential Bayesian pixel selection and estimation procedure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pore, M. D.; Dennis, T. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1980-01-01

    A Bayesian technique for stratified proportion estimation and a sampling based on minimizing the mean squared error of this estimator were developed and tested on LANDSAT multispectral scanner data using the beta density function to model the prior distribution in the two-class case. An extention of this procedure to the k-class case is considered. A generalization of the beta function is shown to be a density function for the general case which allows the procedure to be extended.

  13. Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

  14. Fatigue life estimation procedure for a turbine blade under transient loads

    SciTech Connect

    Vyas, N.S.; Rao, J.S. Indian Inst. of Technology, New Delhi )

    1992-01-01

    A technique for fatigue damage assessment during variable speed operations is presented. Transient resonant stresses for a blade with nonlinear damping have been determined using a numerical procedure. A fatigue damage assessment procedure is described. The fatigue failure surface is generated on the S-N-mean stress axes, and Miner's rule is employed to estimate the cumulation of fatigue. 16 refs.

  15. AGEING PROCEDURES ON LITHIUM BATTERIES IN AN INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION CONTEXT

    SciTech Connect

    Jeffrey R. Belt; Ira Bloom; Mario Conte; Fiorentino Valerio Conte; Kenji Morita; Tomohiko Ikeya; Jens Groot

    2010-11-01

    The widespread introduction of electrically-propelled vehicles is currently part of many political strategies and introduction plans. These new vehicles, ranging from limited (mild) hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully-battery powered, will rely on a new class of advanced storage batteries, such as those based on lithium, to meet different technical and economical targets. The testing of these batteries to determine the performance and life in the various applications is a time-consuming and costly process that is not yet well developed. There are many examples of parallel testing activities that are poorly coordinated, for example, those in Europe, Japan and the US. These costs and efforts may be better leveraged through international collaboration, such as that possible within the framework of the International Energy Agency. Here, a new effort is under development that will establish standardized, accelerated testing procedures and will allow battery testing organizations to cooperate in the analysis of the resulting data. This paper reviews the present state-of-the-art in accelerated life testing in Europe, Japan and the US. The existing test procedures will be collected, compared and analyzed with the goal of international collaboration.

  16. A procedure for the automatic estimation of mixed layer height.

    SciTech Connect

    Coulter, R. L.

    1998-04-15

    . In some instances, the term ''well mixed'' should not be applied to the lower atmosphere at all; during and after precipitation, for instance, the changes in surface and lower atmospheric conditions cause large ambiguities. This paper describes an automatic estimation method using radar profiler data and discusses a one-year climatology of z{sub i} over the SGP CART site.

  17. CPITN: time and cost estimates for periodontal prevention and treatment procedures.

    PubMed

    Dini, E L; Castellanos, R A

    1995-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the necessary time and cost for periodontal prevention and treatment in a working population from sugar and alcohol refineries in Araraquara, SP, Brazil. A stratified sample of 528 employees aged 18-64 from administrative, industrial and agricultural staffs was examined by one examiner, previously trained, according to the community periodontal index of treatment needs (CPITN). The time required for procedures and the cost was extrapolated to the total worker population. The results showed that the estimated time required for periodontal prevention/treatment was 4527 hours. Of this time, 1783 hours were required for oral hygiene instruction, 2531 for scaling, 151 for surgery and 62 for maintenance. The cost would be US $17,655 for hiring a dentist for 8 hours/day to provide oral hygiene instruction, scaling, surgery and maintenance. However, the cost would be US $9,028 for hiring a dentist for 4 hours/day to provide surgery and maintenance and a dental hygienist for 8 hours/day to provide scaling and oral hygiene instruction. Taking into account epidemiologic, technical and economic aspects, the decision relating to manpower should be this second option.

  18. Estimating the age of alleles by use of intraallelic variability

    SciTech Connect

    Slatkin, M.; Rannala, B.

    1997-02-01

    A method is presented for estimating the age of an allele by use of its frequency and the extent of variation among different copies. The method uses the joint distribution of the number of copies in a population sample and the coalescence times of the intraallelic gene genealogy conditioned on the number of copies. The linear birth-death process is used to approximate the dynamics of a rare allele in a finite population. A maximum-likelihood estimate of the age of the allele is obtained by Monte Carlo integration over the coalescence times. The method is applied to two alleles at the cystic fibrosis (CFTR) locus, {Delta}F508 and G542X, for which intraallelic variability at three intronic microsatellite loci has been examined. Our results indicate that G542X is somewhat older than {Delta}F508. Although absolute estimates depend on the mutation rates at the microsatellite loci, our results support the hypothesis that {Delta}F508 arose <500 generations ({approx}10,000 years) ago. 32 refs., 4 figs.

  19. [Observation of cervical vertebrae and estimation of their bone age].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Y; Wang, B

    1997-05-01

    There are two objectives in this study: the first is to estimate skeletal age by lateral cephalomatric roentgengram of cervical vertebrae instead of X-ray of handwrist, the second is to study the rules of cervical vertebrae's growth and development of children from Beijing. The Auto CAD 12.0 computer software was used in measuring lateral cephalomatric roentgengrams of cervical vertebrae of 280 children from Beijing aged 9-15. The shape of cervical vertebrae of children with that of adults on X-ray films was compared, and the growth and development of cervical vertebrae of 9-15 years old children from Beijing was observed. We found out that the rapid growth period of cervical vertebrae was 12-14 years old for girls and 14-15 years old for boys. During puberty, the change of vertebrae's shape has no difference between male and female. 42 female and 28 male teenagers from the 280 aged 9-13 years old were taken X-ray films of left handwrist. The comparison between the films and roentgengrams shows that the appearance of sesamoid of hand and the concavity of the second vertebrae body is at the same time, which means that the beginning of rapid growth period can be estimated by the lateral cephalometric roentgengrams of cervical vertebrae.

  20. A Parametric Procedure for Ultrametric Tree Estimation from Conditional Rank Order Proximity Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, Martin R.; DeSarbo, Wayne S.

    1995-01-01

    A new parametric maximum likelihood procedure is proposed for estimating ultrametric trees for the analysis of conditional rank order proximity data. Technical aspects of the model and the estimation algorithm are discussed, and Monte Carlo results illustrate its application. A consumer psychology application is also examined. (SLD)

  1. Procedures for estimating the frequency of commercial airline flights encountering high cabin ozone levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holdeman, J. D.

    1979-01-01

    Three analytical problems in estimating the frequency at which commercial airline flights will encounter high cabin ozone levels are formulated and solved: namely, estimating flight-segment mean levels, estimating maximum-per-flight levels, and estimating the maximum average level over a specified flight interval. For each problem, solution procedures are given for different levels of input information - from complete cabin ozone data, which provides a direct solution, to limited ozone information, such as ambient ozone means and standard deviations, with which several assumptions are necessary to obtain the required estimates. Each procedure is illustrated by an example case calculation that uses simultaneous cabin and ambient ozone data obtained by the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program. Critical assumptions are discussed and evaluated, and the several solutions for each problem are compared. Example calculations are also performed to illustrate how variations in lattitude, altitude, season, retention ratio, flight duration, and cabin ozone limits affect the estimated probabilities.

  2. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    PubMed

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

  3. Age estimation using annulations in root cementum of human teeth: A comparison between longitudinal and cross sections

    PubMed Central

    Mallar, Kavya B; Girish, HC; Murgod, Sanjay; Kumar, BN Yathindra

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. Research indicates that cemental annulations may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of human skeleton for age estimation. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five teeth were sectioned longitudinally, and twenty-five teeth were cross-sectioned at the mid portion of the root. Sections were ground, mounted and viewed under a bright light microscope. The area selected for counting was photographed under ×10 objective, magnified 5 times; cemental lines were counted and added to the eruption age of that patient, to obtain the chronological age. The statistical software SAS 9.2, SPSS 15.0, Stata 10.1, MedCalc 9.0.1, Systat 12.0 and R environment ver.2.11.1 were used for the analysis of the data. Results: The P value comparing actual age and calculated age using longitudinal sections is moderately significant and the P value comparing actual age and calculated age in the age group of <30 years is significant. Interpretation and Conclusion: The middle third of tooth root was most suitable to count annulations. The cross sections are easier to count but longitudinal sections give more appropriate results on age estimation. Though the procedure predicts under assessment of age in the younger age group and over assessment of age in the older age group, it provides a close estimate of the actual age of an individual. It can be correlated with other age estimation methods for better reliability. PMID:26980973

  4. Non-parametric estimation and model checking procedures for marginal gap time distributions for recurrent events.

    PubMed

    Kvist, Kajsa; Gerster, Mette; Andersen, Per Kragh; Kessing, Lars Vedel

    2007-12-30

    For recurrent events there is evidence that misspecification of the frailty distribution can cause severe bias in estimated regression coefficients (Am. J. Epidemiol 1998; 149:404-411; Statist. Med. 2006; 25:1672-1684). In this paper we adapt a procedure originally suggested in (Biometrika 1999; 86:381-393) for parallel data for checking the gamma frailty to recurrent events. To apply the model checking procedure, a consistent non-parametric estimator for the marginal gap time distributions is needed. This is in general not possible due to induced dependent censoring in the recurrent events setting, however, in (Biometrika 1999; 86:59-70) a non-parametric estimator for the joint gap time distributions based on the principle of inverse probability of censoring weights is suggested. Here, we attempt to apply this estimator in the model checking procedure and the performance of the method is investigated with simulations and applied to Danish registry data. The method is further investigated using the usual Kaplan-Meier estimator and a marginalized estimator for the marginal gap time distributions. We conclude that the procedure only works when the recurrent event is common and when the intra-individual association between gap times is weak.

  5. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  6. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-05-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln y versus t when y is an exponential function of t. This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was wrong not because he did not account for radioactivity, as is commonly believed,4 but because he used the wrong model for Earth's heat loss. We feel this idea is worth spreading. To this end (following England et al.), we examine two questions, the first about the radioactivity part and the second about Perry's alternate model for Earth's heat loss.

  7. VERIFICATION OF SIMPLIFIED PROCEDURES FOR SITE- SPECIFIC SO2 AND NOX CONTROL COST ESTIMATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report documents results of an evaluation to verify the accuracy of simplified procedures for estimating sulfur dioxide (S02) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) retrofit control costs and performance for 200 502-emitting coal-fired power plants in the 31-state eastern region. nitially...

  8. Iterative Procedures for Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the First-Order Gaussian Moving Average Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-11-01

    findings contained in this report are thosE Df the author(s) and should not he construed as an official Department Df the Army position, policy , or...Marquardt methods" to perform linear and nonlinear estimations. One idea in this area by Box and Jenkins (1976) was the " backcasting " procedure to evaluate

  9. A solar energy estimation procedure using remote sensing techniques. [watershed hydrologic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khorram, S.

    1977-01-01

    The objective of this investigation is to design a remote sensing-aided procedure for daily location-specific estimation of solar radiation components over the watershed(s) of interest. This technique has been tested on the Spanish Creek Watershed, Northern California, with successful results.

  10. 33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... PROVISION § 241.5 Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share. (a) Step one, the benefits test... factor determined in § 241.5(a)(1), when expressed as a percentage, is greater than the standard level of cost-sharing, the standard level will apply. (3) If the factor determined in § 241.5(a)(1),...

  11. 33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... PROVISION § 241.5 Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share. (a) Step one, the benefits test...) Calculate the ratio of flood control benefits (developed using the Water Resources Council's Principles and... costs. Divide the result by four. For example, if the project's (or separable element's)...

  12. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... age population estimates as of July 1, 2009, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are..., United States Code, Section 441a(e), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age...

  13. 78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-30

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are..., United States Code, Section 441a(e), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age...

  14. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... age population estimates as of July 1, 2010, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are...), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age population for July 1, 2010, for...

  15. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-26

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary... age population estimates as of July 1, 2011, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are..., United States Code, Section 441a(e), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age...

  16. Facial rejuvenation for middle-aged women: a combined approach with minimally invasive procedures

    PubMed Central

    Goldman, Alberto; Wollina, Uwe

    2010-01-01

    Facial rejuvenation is a significant process involved in restoring youthfulness. The introduction of less invasive procedures has increased acceptance of such procedures. Often a combination of different techniques allows individualized treatment with optimal outcomes. Furthermore, this leads to a natural look without a significant downtime. We report herein the use of such a combined approach in middle-aged women with particular emphasis on botulinum toxin type A, dermal fillers, and chemical peels. PMID:20924438

  17. A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, Leonard W.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index a(f(sub i)) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GQ proton flux at energies below 1013 eV. Two procedures for estimating a(f(sub i)), referred as (1) the method of moments, and (2) maximum likelihood, are developed and their statistical performance compared. I concluded that the maximum likelihood procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistic estimation procedure for estimating a1. The maximum likelihood procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic ray detector because they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose practical limits to the design envelope.

  18. Estimation of the collective dose in the Portuguese population due to medical procedures in 2010.

    PubMed

    Teles, Pedro; Carmen de Sousa, M; Paulo, Graciano; Santos, Joana; Pascoal, Ana; Cardoso, Gabriela; Lança, Isabel; Matela, Nuno; Janeiro, Luís; Sousa, Patrick; Carvoeiras, Pedro; Parafita, Rui; Santos, Ana Isabel; Simãozinho, Paula; Vaz, Pedro

    2013-05-01

    In a wide range of medical fields, technological advancements have led to an increase in the average collective dose in national populations worldwide. Periodic estimations of the average collective population dose due to medical exposure is, therefore of utmost importance, and is now mandatory in countries within the European Union (article 12 of EURATOM directive 97/43). Presented in this work is a report on the estimation of the collective dose in the Portuguese population due to nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures and the Top 20 diagnostic radiology examinations, which represent the 20 exams that contribute the most to the total collective dose in diagnostic radiology and interventional procedures in Europe. This work involved the collaboration of a multidisciplinary taskforce comprising representatives of all major Portuguese stakeholders (universities, research institutions, public and private healthcare providers, administrative services of the National Healthcare System, scientific and professional associations and private service providers). This allowed us to gather a comprehensive amount of data necessary for a robust estimation of the collective effective dose to the Portuguese population. The methodology used for data collection and dose estimation was based on European Commission recommendations, as this work was performed in the framework of the European wide Dose Datamed II project. This is the first study estimating the collective dose for the population in Portugal, considering such a wide national coverage and range of procedures and consisting of important baseline reference data. The taskforce intends to continue developing periodic collective dose estimations in the future. The estimated annual average effective dose for the Portuguese population was of 0.080±0.017 mSv caput(-1) for nuclear medicine exams and of 0.96±0.68 mSv caput(-1) for the Top 20 diagnostic radiology exams.

  19. Procedure to estimate thermophysical and geometrical parameters of embedded cancerous lesions using thermography.

    PubMed

    Manuel Luna, Jose; Romero-Mendez, Ricardo; Hernandez-Guerrero, Abel; Elizalde-Blancas, Francisco

    2012-03-01

    Based on the fact that malignant cancerous lesions (neoplasms) develop high metabolism and use more blood supply than normal tissue, infrared thermography (IR) has become a reliable clinical technique used to indicate noninvasively the presence of cancerous diseases, e.g., skin and breast cancer. However, to diagnose cancerous diseases by IR, the technique requires procedures that explore the relationship between the neoplasm characteristics (size, blood perfusion rate and heat generated) and the resulting temperature distribution on the skin surface. In this research work the dual reciprocity boundary element method (DRBEM) has been coupled with the simulated annealing technique (SA) in a new inverse procedure, which coupled to the IR technique, is capable of estimating simultaneously geometrical and thermophysical parameters of the neoplasm. The method is of an evolutionary type, requiring random initial values for the unknown parameters and no calculations of sensitivities or search directions. In addition, the DRBEM does not require any re-meshing at each proposed solution to solve the bioheat model. The inverse procedure has been tested considering input data for simulated neoplasms of different sizes and positions in relation to the skin surface. The successful estimation of unknown neoplasm parameters validates the idea of using the SA technique and the DRBEM in the estimation of parameters. Other estimation techniques, based on genetic algorithms or sensitivity coefficients, have not been capable of obtaining a solution because the skin surface temperature difference is very small.

  20. Empirical Bayes procedure for estimating genetic distance between populations and effective population size.

    PubMed Central

    Kitada, S; Hayashi, T; Kishino, H

    2000-01-01

    We developed an empirical Bayes procedure to estimate genetic distances between populations using allele frequencies. This procedure makes it possible to describe the skewness of the genetic distance while taking full account of the uncertainty of the sample allele frequencies. Dirichlet priors of the allele frequencies are specified, and the posterior distributions of the various composite parameters are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. To avoid overdependence on subjective priors, we adopt a hierarchical model and estimate hyperparameters by maximizing the joint marginal-likelihood function. Taking advantage of the empirical Bayesian procedure, we extend the method to estimate the effective population size using temporal changes in allele frequencies. The method is applied to data sets on red sea bream, herring, northern pike, and ayu broodstock. It is shown that overdispersion overestimates the genetic distance and underestimates the effective population size, if it is not taken into account during the analysis. The joint marginal-likelihood function also estimates the rate of gene flow into island populations. PMID:11102396

  1. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age.

    PubMed

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker's age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by "naïve" listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers' natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60-65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20-25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40-45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed.

  2. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

    PubMed Central

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

  3. An inverse procedure for estimating the unsaturated hydraulic conductivities of volcanic tuffs

    SciTech Connect

    Zimmerman, R.W.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Flint, A.L.; Flint, L.E.

    1993-01-01

    A procedure is developed for estimating the hydraulic conductivity function of unsaturated volcanic tuff, using measurements of the sorptivity and capillary pressure functions. The method assumes that the sorptivity is a linear function of the initial saturation, as is suggested by experimental data. The procedure is tested on a vitrified tuff from the Calico Hills unit at Yucca Mountain, and the predicted conductivities are in reasonable agreement with measured values. Further tests of this method are needed to establish whether or not it can be routinely used for conductivity predictions.

  4. Development of a procedure to estimate runoff and sediment transport in ephemeral streams

    SciTech Connect

    Lane, L.J.

    1982-01-01

    A distributed hydrologic model for application on small, semiarid watersheds is developed. The distributed model incorporates simplified routing schemes to include the influence of transmission losses on runoff. A sediment transport model, by sediment size fractions, is developed to compute transport capacity and sediment yield in noncohesive, alluvial channels. Based on available information published in soils and topographic maps and on channel and bed sediment characteristics, the procedure is used to estimate runoff rates and amounts together with sediment yields from semiarid watersheds. Example applications include flood frequency analysis and sediment yield. The procedure requires a minimum of observed data for calibration and is designed for practical applications.

  5. Different Estimation Procedures for the Parameters of the Extended Exponential Geometric Distribution for Medical Data

    PubMed Central

    Ramos, Pedro L.; Perdoná, Gleici S. C.

    2016-01-01

    We have considered different estimation procedures for the unknown parameters of the extended exponential geometric distribution. We introduce different types of estimators such as the maximum likelihood, method of moments, modified moments, L-moments, ordinary and weighted least squares, percentile, maximum product of spacings, and minimum distance estimators. The different estimators are compared by using extensive numerical simulations. We discovered that the maximum product of spacings estimator has the smallest mean square errors and mean relative estimates, nearest to one, for both parameters, proving to be the most efficient method compared to other methods. Combining these results with the good properties of the method such as consistency, asymptotic efficiency, normality, and invariance we conclude that the maximum product of spacings estimator is the best one for estimating the parameters of the extended exponential geometric distribution in comparison with its competitors. For the sake of illustration, we apply our proposed methodology in two important data sets, demonstrating that the EEG distribution is a simple alternative to be used for lifetime data. PMID:27579052

  6. Estimation of mechanical properties of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-10-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ``saturation`` impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common predicted lower-bound J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  7. Thermal aging of cast stainless steels in LWR systems: Estimation of mechanical properties

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-11-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ``saturation`` impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common ``lower-bound`` J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  8. Thermal aging of cast stainless steels in LWR systems: Estimation of mechanical properties

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-11-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy-impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The saturation'' impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  9. A Procedure for Structural Weight Estimation of Single Stage to Orbit Launch Vehicles (Interim User's Manual)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martinovic, Zoran N.; Cerro, Jeffrey A.

    2002-01-01

    This is an interim user's manual for current procedures used in the Vehicle Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, for launch vehicle structural subsystem weight estimation based on finite element modeling and structural analysis. The process is intended to complement traditional methods of conceptual and early preliminary structural design such as the application of empirical weight estimation or application of classical engineering design equations and criteria on one dimensional "line" models. Functions of two commercially available software codes are coupled together. Vehicle modeling and analysis are done using SDRC/I-DEAS, and structural sizing is performed with the Collier Research Corp. HyperSizer program.

  10. A New Stratified Sampling Procedure which Decreases Error Estimation of Varroa Mite Number on Sticky Boards.

    PubMed

    Kretzschmar, A; Durand, E; Maisonnasse, A; Vallon, J; Le Conte, Y

    2015-06-01

    A new procedure of stratified sampling is proposed in order to establish an accurate estimation of Varroa destructor populations on sticky bottom boards of the hive. It is based on the spatial sampling theory that recommends using regular grid stratification in the case of spatially structured process. The distribution of varroa mites on sticky board being observed as spatially structured, we designed a sampling scheme based on a regular grid with circles centered on each grid element. This new procedure is then compared with a former method using partially random sampling. Relative error improvements are exposed on the basis of a large sample of simulated sticky boards (n=20,000) which provides a complete range of spatial structures, from a random structure to a highly frame driven structure. The improvement of varroa mite number estimation is then measured by the percentage of counts with an error greater than a given level.

  11. Effects of Estimation Bias on Multiple-Category Classification with an IRT-Based Adaptive Classification Procedure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Xiangdong; Poggio, John C.; Glasnapp, Douglas R.

    2006-01-01

    The effects of five ability estimators, that is, maximum likelihood estimator, weighted likelihood estimator, maximum a posteriori, expected a posteriori, and Owen's sequential estimator, on the performances of the item response theory-based adaptive classification procedure on multiple categories were studied via simulations. The following…

  12. Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value-Added Procedure. Algorithm Operational Details and Explanations

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Y.; Long, C. N.

    2002-10-01

    This document describes some specifics of the algorithm for best estimate evaluation of radiation fluxes at Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF). It uses the data available from the three co-located surface radiometer platforms at the SGP CF to automatically determine the best estimate of the irradiance measurements available. The Best Estimate Flux (BEFlux) value-added procedure (VAP) was previously named Best Estimate ShortWave (BESW) VAP, which included all of the broadband and spectral shortwave (SW) measurements for the SGP CF. In BESW, multiple measurements of the same quantities were handled simply by designating one as the primary measurement and using all others to merely fill in any gaps. Thus, this “BESW” is better termed “most continuous,” since no additional quality assessment was applied. We modified the algorithm in BESW to use the average of the closest two measurements as the best estimate when possible, if these measurements pass all quality assessment criteria. Furthermore, we included longwave (LW) fields in the best estimate evaluation to include all major components of the surface radiative energy budget, and renamed the VAP to Best Estimate Flux (BEFLUX1LONG).

  13. Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value-Added Procedure: Algorithm Operational Details and Explanations

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Y; Long, CN

    2002-10-01

    This document describes some specifics of the algorithm for best estimate evaluation of radiation fluxes at Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF). It uses the data available from the three co-located surface radiometer platforms at the SGP CF to automatically determine the best estimate of the irradiance measurements available. The Best Estimate Flux (BEFlux) value-added procedure (VAP) was previously named Best Estimate ShortWave (BESW) VAP, which included all of the broadband and spectral shortwave (SW) measurements for the SGP CF. In BESW, multiple measurements of the same quantities were handled simply by designating one as the primary measurement and using all others to merely fill in any gaps. Thus, this “BESW” is better termed “most continuous,” since no additional quality assessment was applied. We modified the algorithm in BESW to use the average of the closest two measurements as the best estimate when possible, if these measurements pass all quality assessment criteria. Furthermore, we included longwave (LW) fields in the best estimate evaluation to include all major components of the surface radiative energy budget, and renamed the VAP to Best Estimate Flux (BEFLUX1LONG).

  14. Age difference in dual-task interference effects on procedural learning in children.

    PubMed

    Lejeune, Caroline; Desmottes, Lise; Catale, Corinne; Meulemans, Thierry

    2015-01-01

    The current study aimed to investigate the role played by explicit mechanisms during procedural learning in two age groups of children (7 and 10 years) using a dual-task paradigm. To do this, we explored the effect of an interference task during the early and late phases of a mirror tracing learning task. The results showed a differential impact of the secondary task on the two age groups, but only during the first learning phase; the performance of 10-year-olds was affected by the second task, whereas in 7-year-olds no performance difference was found between the single- and dual-task conditions. Overall, our study suggests that there are differences in the amount of effortful processing in which 7- and 10-year-olds engage at the beginning of the learning process; procedural learning in young children is mainly implicit, as attested by its lesser sensitivity to an interference task, whereas high-level explicit mechanisms seem to contribute to the procedural performance of 10-year-olds. However, these explicit mechanisms, even if they have an effect on performance, might not have an impact on the learning curve given that no difference in rate of acquisition was found between age groups. These findings are discussed in the light of classical conceptions of procedural learning.

  15. A digital procedure for ground water recharge and discharge pattern recognition and rate estimation.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yu-Feng; Anderson, Mary P

    2003-01-01

    A digital procedure to estimate recharge/discharge rates that requires relatively short preparation time and uses readily available data was applied to a setting in central Wisconsin. The method requires only measurements of the water table, fluxes such as stream baseflows, bottom of the system, and hydraulic conductivity to delineate approximate recharge/discharge zones and to estimate rates. The method uses interpolation of the water table surface, recharge/discharge mapping, pattern recognition, and a parameter estimation model. The surface interpolator used is based on the theory of radial basis functions with thin-plate splines. The recharge/discharge mapping is based on a mass-balance calculation performed using MODFLOW. The results of the recharge/discharge mapping are critically dependent on the accuracy of the water table interpolation and the accuracy and number of water table measurements. The recharge pattern recognition is performed with the help of a graphical user interface (GUI) program based on several algorithms used in image processing. Pattern recognition is needed to identify the recharge/discharge zonations and zone the results of the mapping method. The parameter estimation program UCODE calculates the parameter values that provide a best fit between simulated heads and flows and calibration head-and-flow targets. A model of the Buena Vista Ground Water Basin in the Central Sand Plains of Wisconsin is used to demonstrate the procedure.

  16. Chemical shoreline cleaning agents: Evaluation of two laboratory procedures for estimating performance

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, J.B.; Tsang, S.F.; Frank, V.; Marsden, P.; Chau, N.

    1993-07-01

    The report presents data from studies designed to evaluate characteristics of selected bench-scale test methods for estimating cleaning performance of chemical agents for removal of oil from substrate surfaces. Such agents have the potential to be used to remove oil that might strand on shorelines and cause adverse effects to impacted ecosystems. In order to mitigate the effect of stranded oil with chemical cleaning agents, however, an on-scene coordinator must have information and an understanding of performance characteristics for available cleaning agents. Performance of candidate cleaning agents can be estimated on the basis of laboratory testing procedures that are designed to evaluate performance of different agents. Data presented in the report are intended to assist the U.S. EPA in evaluation of candidate test methods for estimating performance of cleaning agents. Two test methods were selected for evaluating performance: Environment Canada's Inclined Trough test and a Swirling Coupon test developed in the program.

  17. Procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations. [PWR; BWR

    SciTech Connect

    Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

    1983-03-01

    This report describes and evaluates several procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. These HEPs are currently needed for several purposes, particularly for probabilistic risk assessments. Data do not exist for estimating these HEPs, so expert judgment can provide these estimates in a timely manner. Five judgmental procedures are described here: paired comparisons, ranking and rating, direct numerical estimation, indirect numerical estimation and multiattribute utility measurement. These procedures are evaluated in terms of several criteria: quality of judgments, difficulty of data collection, empirical support, acceptability, theoretical justification, and data processing. Situational constraints such as the number of experts available, the number of HEPs to be estimated, the time available, the location of the experts, and the resources available are discussed in regard to their implications for selecting a procedure for use.

  18. Estimation of staff lens doses during interventional procedures. Comparing cardiology, neuroradiology and interventional radiology.

    PubMed

    Vano, E; Sanchez, R M; Fernandez, J M

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate lens doses using over apron active personal dosemeters in interventional catheterisation laboratories (cardiology IC, neuroradiology IN and radiology IR) and to investigate correlations between occupational lens doses and patient doses. Active electronic personal dosemeters placed over the lead apron were used on a sample of 204 IC procedures, 274 IN and 220 IR (all performed at the same university hospital). Patient dose values (kerma area product) were also recorded to evaluate correlations with occupational doses. Operators used the ceiling-suspended screen in most cases. The median and third quartile values of equivalent dose Hp(10) per procedure measured over the apron for IC, IN and IR resulted, respectively, in 21/67, 19/44 and 24/54 µSv. Patient dose values (median/third quartile) were 75/128, 83/176 and 61/159 Gy cm(2), respectively. The median ratios for dosemeters worn over the apron by operators (protected by the ceiling-suspended screen) and patient doses were 0.36; 0.21 and 0.46 µSv Gy(-1) cm(-2), respectively. With the conservative approach used (lens doses estimated from the over apron chest dosemeter) we came to the conclusion that more than 800 procedures y(-1) and per operator were necessary to reach the new lens dose limit for the three interventional specialties.

  19. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    SciTech Connect

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to /sup 131/I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum 24 hours after administration (the /sup 131/I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K(exp(-..mu../sub 1/t) - exp(-..mu../sub 2/t)) (..mu..Ci), where ..mu../sub 1/ = lambda/sub r/ + lambda/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), lambda/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and lambda/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of lambda/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptake at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/..mu..Ci-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. The model could prove useful in the dosimetry of very short-lived radioiodines. Tables of age- and sex-dependent coefficients are provided to enable readers to make their own calculations. 12 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  20. Accuracy of the European solar water heater test procedure. Part 1: Measurement errors and parameter estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Rabl, A.; Leide, B. ); Carvalho, M.J.; Collares-Pereira, M. ); Bourges, B.

    1991-01-01

    The Collector and System Testing Group (CSTG) of the European Community has developed a procedure for testing the performance of solar water heaters. This procedure treats a solar water heater as a black box with input-output parameters that are determined by all-day tests. In the present study the authors carry out a systematic analysis of the accuracy of this procedure, in order to answer the question: what tolerances should one impose for the measurements and how many days of testing should one demand under what meteorological conditions, in order to be able to quarantee a specified maximum error for the long term performance The methodology is applicable to other test procedures as well. The present paper (Part 1) examines the measurement tolerances of the current version of the procedure and derives a priori estimates of the errors of the parameters; these errors are then compared with the regression results of the Round Robin test series. The companion paper (Part 2) evaluates the consequences for the accuracy of the long term performance prediction. The authors conclude that the CSTG test procedure makes it possible to predict the long term performance with standard errors around 5% for sunny climates (10% for cloudy climates). The apparent precision of individual test sequences is deceptive because of large systematic discrepancies between different sequences. Better results could be obtained by imposing tighter control on the constancy of the cold water supply temperature and on the environment of the test, the latter by enforcing the recommendation for the ventilation of the collector.

  1. [The application of telomere DNA in age estimation of forensic medicine].

    PubMed

    Sun, Hong-wei; Gao, Cai-rong

    2005-05-01

    Estimating tooth age and skeletal age are the two primary methods in age estimation of forensic medicine. But they are often impacted with geographical environment, nutrition, habitation and ethenologic differences, so the accuracy will be reduced, especially to the adult. With the study of telomere, it is certain that the length of the telomere DNA can reflect the cell division and represent the cell lifespan, and it has some pertinence to the age of the donor, so to measure the length of telomere DNA is a new and valuable method for age estimation in the forensic medicine.

  2. Evaluation of procedures for estimating ruminal particle turnover and diet digestibility in ruminant animals

    SciTech Connect

    Cochran, R.C.

    1985-01-01

    Procedures used in estimating ruminal particle turnover and diet digestibility were evaluated in a series of independent experiments. Experiment 1 and 2 evaluated the influence of sampling site, mathematical model and intraruminal mixing on estimates of ruminal particle turnover in beef steers grazing crested wheatgrass or offered ad libitum levels of prairie hay once daily, respectively. Particle turnover rate constants were estimated by intraruminal administration (via rumen cannula) of ytterbium (Yb)-labeled forage, followed by serial collection of rumen digesta or fecal samples. Rumen Yb concentrations were transformed to natural logarithms and regressed on time. Influence of sampling site (rectum versus rumen) on turnover estimates was modified by the model used to fit fecal marker excretion curves in the grazing study. In contrast, estimated turnover rate constants from rumen sampling were smaller (P < 0.05) than rectally derived rate constants, regardless of fecal model used, when steers were fed once daily. In Experiment 3, in vitro residues subjected to acid or neutral detergent fiber extraction (IVADF and IVNDF), acid detergent fiber incubated in cellulase (ADFIC) and acid detergent lignin (ADL) were evaluated as internal markers for predicting diet digestibility. Both IVADF and IVNDF displayed variable accuracy for prediction of in vivo digestibility whereas ADL and ADFIC inaccurately predicted digestibility of all diets.

  3. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    PubMed

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  4. Fatigue life estimation procedure for a turbine blade under transient loads

    SciTech Connect

    Vyas, N.S. . Dept. of Mechanical Engineering); Rao, J.S. . Dept. of Mechanical Engineering)

    1994-01-01

    Fatigue analysis and consequent life prediction of turbomachine blading requires the stress load history of the blade. A blade designed for safe operation at particular constant rotor speeds may, however, incur damaging stresses during start-up and shut-down operations. During such operations the blade experiences momentary resonant stresses while passing through the criticals, which may lie in the speed range through which the rotor is accelerated. Fatigue due to these transient influences may accumulate to lead to failure. In this paper a technique for fatigue damage assessment during variable-speed operations is presented. Transient resonant stresses for a blade with nonlinear damping have been determined using a numerical procedure. A fatigue damage assessment procedure is described. The fatigue failure surface is generated on the S-N-mean stress axes and Miner's Rule is employed to estimate the accumulation of fatigue.

  5. Estimation of neutron spectrum in the low-level gamma spectroscopy system using unfolding procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knežević, D.; Jovančević, N.; Krmar, M.

    2016-03-01

    The radiation resulting from neutron interactions with Ge nuclei in active volume of HPGe detectors is one of the main concerns in low-level gamma spectroscopy measurements [1,2]. It is usually not possible to measure directly spectrum of neutrons which strike detector. This paper explore the possibility of estimation of neutron spectrum using measured activities of certain Ge(n,γ) and Ge(n,n') reactions (obtained from low-level gamma measurements), available ENDF cross section data and unfolding procedures. In this work HPGe detector with passive shield made from commercial low background lead was used for the measurement. The most important objective of this study was to reconstruct muon induced neutron spectrum created in the shield of the HPGe detector. MAXED [3] and GRAVEL [4] algorithms for neutron spectra unfolding were used. The results of those two algorithms were compared and we analyzed the sensitivity of the unfolding procedure to the various input parameters.

  6. Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

    PubMed

    Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

    2013-09-01

    Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y).

  7. Age and gender disparities in the risk of carotid revascularization procedures.

    PubMed

    Giannopoulos, Sotirios; Katsanos, Aristeidis H; Vasdekis, Spyros N; Boviatsis, Efstathios; Voumvourakis, Konstantinos Iota; Tsivgoulis, Georgios

    2013-10-01

    The potential effect of age and gender stratification in the outcome of patients with carotid artery stenosis undergoing carotid revascularization procedures (CRP) may have important implications in clinical practice. Both European Stroke Organization and American Heart Association guidelines suggest that age and sex should be taken into account when selecting a CRP for an individual patient. We reviewed available literature data through Medline and Embase. Our search was based on the combination of terms: age, gender, sex, carotid artery stenosis, carotid artery stenting (CAS) and carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Postoperative stroke and mortality rates increased with age after any CRP (CEA or CAS), especially in patients aged over 75 years. Older patients with carotid artery stenosis undergoing CAS were found to have a nearly double risk of stroke or death compared with CEA, while CEA was found to benefit more patients aged over 70 years with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Male patients with symptomatic or asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis had lower stroke/mortality rates and benefited more from CEA compared with females. For the periprocedural risk of stroke or death in patients with carotid artery stenosis after CAS no sex differences were found. Therefore, CEA appears to have lower perioperative risks than CAS in patients aged over 70 years, and thus should be the treatment of choice if not contraindicated. The periprocedural risk of CEA is lower in men than in women, while there was no effect of gender on the periprocedural risk of CAS.

  8. Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters.

    PubMed

    Tinker, M Tim; Doak, Daniel F; Estes, James A; Hatfield, Brian B; Staedler, Michelle M; Bodkin, James L

    2006-12-01

    Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks.

  9. Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Bodkin, James L

    2006-01-01

    Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. The effects of racemization rate for age estimation of pink teeth.

    PubMed

    Sakuma, Ayaka; Saitoh, Hisako; Ishii, Namiko; Iwase, Hirotaro

    2015-03-01

    Pink teeth is thought to result from the seepage of hemoglobin caused by dental pulp decomposition. We investigated whether racemization can be applied for age estimation in cases of pink teeth where the whole tooth is used. The pink teeth used were three cases and the normal teeth for control were five mandibular canines of known age. Age of the pink teeth was calculated on the basis of regression formula obtained from the five control teeth. Only a slight error was noted between the actual and estimated ages of the pink teeth (R(2) = 0.980, r = 0.990): Cases 1-3 actually aged 23, 53, and 59 years were estimated to be 26, 52, and 60 years. Based on our results of testing pink teeth of known age, we suggest that racemization techniques allow for the age estimation of pink teeth using the same methods for normally colored teeth.

  11. Semi-parametric estimation in magnetic resonance spectroscopy: automation of the disentanglement procedure.

    PubMed

    Rabeson, H; Ratiney, H; van Ormondt, D; Graveron-Demilly, D

    2007-01-01

    Semi-parametric disentanglement of parametric parts from non-parametric parts of a signal is a universal problem. This study concerns estimation of metabolite concentrations from in vivo Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) signals. Due to in vivo conditions, so-called macro-molecules contribute non-parametric components to the signals. Disentanglement is achieved by exploiting prior knowledge about the parametric and non-parametric parts directly in the measurement domain. Moreover, Cramér-Rao bounds on the non-parametric part are derived. These expressions are used to automate the disentanglement procedure.

  12. Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus)

    PubMed Central

    Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J.

    2016-01-01

    African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6–24 months; 25–60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a

  13. Age-related changes in the cerebral substrates of cognitive procedural learning.

    PubMed

    Hubert, Valérie; Beaunieux, Hélène; Chételat, Gaël; Platel, Hervé; Landeau, Brigitte; Viader, Fausto; Desgranges, Béatrice; Eustache, Francis

    2009-04-01

    Cognitive procedural learning occurs in three qualitatively different phases (cognitive, associative, and autonomous). At the beginning of this process, numerous cognitive functions are involved, subtended by distinct brain structures such as the prefrontal and parietal cortex and the cerebellum. As the learning progresses, these cognitive components are gradually replaced by psychomotor abilities, reflected by the increasing involvement of the cerebellum, thalamus, and occipital regions. In elderly subjects, although cognitive studies have revealed a learning effect, performance levels differ during the acquisition of a procedure. The effects of age on the learning of a cognitive procedure have not yet been examined using functional imaging. The aim of this study was therefore to characterize the cerebral substrates involved in the learning of a cognitive procedure, comparing a group of older subjects with young controls. For this purpose, we performed a positron emission tomography activation study using the Tower of Toronto task. A direct comparison of the two groups revealed the involvement of a similar network of brain regions at the beginning of learning (cognitive phase). However, the engagement of frontal and cingulate regions persisted in the older group as learning continued, whereas it ceased in the younger controls. We assume that this additional activation in the older group during the associative and autonomous phases reflected compensatory processes and the fact that some older subjects failed to fully automate the procedure.

  14. Thermoluminescence and new 14C age estimates for late quaternary loesses in southwestern Nebraska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Maat, P.B.; Johnson, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    Loess of late Quaternary age mantles most of Nebraska south of the Platte River Valley. At least five late Quaternary loesses are recognized: from oldest to youngest, one or more undifferentiated pre-lllinoian loesses, the Loveland Loess, the Gilman Canyon Loess, which exhibits a well developed soil and rests unconformably on the Sangamon soil, the Peoria Loess capped by the Brady soil, and the Bignell Loess, which is distributed discontinuously. Previous research shows that the Loveland Loess is Illinoian. the Gilman Canyon Loess and Peoria Loess are Wisconsin, and the Bignell Loess is Holocene. We present here the first thermoluminescence (TL) age estimates and new C ages for these late Quaternary loesses at two key sections in southwestern Nebraska, the Eustis ash pit and the Bignell Hill road cut. TL age estimates from all samples collected from Eustis ash pit and Bignell Hill were internally consistent. TL and C age estimates from these two sections generally agree and support previous age determinations. The TL age estimate on Loveland Loess indicates deposition at 163 ka. TL and radiocarbon age estimates indicate that Oilman Canyon Loess, believed to be deposited during the Farmdale interstade, first began to accumulate at about 40 ka: the lower part of the Gilman Canyon Loess is 36 ka at Eustis and the middle of the unit is 30 ka at Bignell Hill. The lower and upper parts of the Peoria Loess give age estimates of 24 ka and 17 ka, respectively. TL age estimates for deposition of the Bignell Loess are 9 ka near the base, in agreement with radiocarbon age estimates, and 6 ka immediately below the modern soil, substantiating its Holocene age. Comparisons of TL age estimates with ??18O and insolation curves which show loess deposition during interglacial and interstadial as well as glacial periods, indicate that loess deposition on the Great Plains can occur under a variety of climatic conditions.

  15. Canine pulp ratios in estimating pensionable age in subjects with questionable documents of identification.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi

    2011-03-20

    One of the most interesting reasons for needing to estimate age in adult subjects is to ascertain the age of a person of questionable pensionable age. This problem is becoming increasingly important in Europe, owing to the high number of immigrants without valid birth certificates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the application of the apposition of secondary dentine of canines by the method of Cameriere et al. [10], in order to estimate the pensionable age of subjects without proper birth certificates. Periapical X-rays of 180 canines from 90 subjects aged between 50 and 79, 46 men and 44 women, were analysed. Estimated ages were used to test the medico-legal question as to whether an individual was older or younger than 65 years of age. In subjects under 65, age was correctly evaluated in 91% and 89% of individuals using maxillary and mandibular canines, respectively. In subjects over 65, of pensionable age, estimates were correct in 85% and 88% of cases, respectively. The proportion of individuals with correct classifications was 89% for both maxillary and mandibular canines taken together. In only four subjects, the results of maxillary and mandibular canines were discordant; in the other 86 subjects, the test of maxillary and mandibular canines yielded concordant results. Among the latter, the proportion of individuals who were really aged 65 years or older, and who were correctly estimated as such, was 94%, and the proportion of individuals younger than 65 years of age who were correctly estimated as such was 96%.

  16. Artificial Intelligence Procedures for Tree Taper Estimation within a Complex Vegetation Mosaic in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Nunes, Matheus Henrique; Görgens, Eric Bastos

    2016-01-01

    Tree stem form in native tropical forests is very irregular, posing a challenge to establishing taper equations that can accurately predict the diameter at any height along the stem and subsequently merchantable volume. Artificial intelligence approaches can be useful techniques in minimizing estimation errors within complex variations of vegetation. We evaluated the performance of Random Forest® regression tree and Artificial Neural Network procedures in modelling stem taper. Diameters and volume outside bark were compared to a traditional taper-based equation across a tropical Brazilian savanna, a seasonal semi-deciduous forest and a rainforest. Neural network models were found to be more accurate than the traditional taper equation. Random forest showed trends in the residuals from the diameter prediction and provided the least precise and accurate estimations for all forest types. This study provides insights into the superiority of a neural network, which provided advantages regarding the handling of local effects.

  17. Artificial Intelligence Procedures for Tree Taper Estimation within a Complex Vegetation Mosaic in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Nunes, Matheus Henrique

    2016-01-01

    Tree stem form in native tropical forests is very irregular, posing a challenge to establishing taper equations that can accurately predict the diameter at any height along the stem and subsequently merchantable volume. Artificial intelligence approaches can be useful techniques in minimizing estimation errors within complex variations of vegetation. We evaluated the performance of Random Forest® regression tree and Artificial Neural Network procedures in modelling stem taper. Diameters and volume outside bark were compared to a traditional taper-based equation across a tropical Brazilian savanna, a seasonal semi-deciduous forest and a rainforest. Neural network models were found to be more accurate than the traditional taper equation. Random forest showed trends in the residuals from the diameter prediction and provided the least precise and accurate estimations for all forest types. This study provides insights into the superiority of a neural network, which provided advantages regarding the handling of local effects. PMID:27187074

  18. Experimental and theoretical analysis on the procedure for estimating geo-stresses by the Kaiser effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yuan-Hui; Yang, Yu-Jiang; Liu, Jian-Po; Zhao, Xing-Dong

    2010-10-01

    Acoustic emission tests of the core specimens retrieved from boreholes at the depth over 1000 m in Hongtoushan Copper Mine were carried out under uniaxial compressive loading, and the numerical test was also done by using the rock failure process analysis (RFPA2D) code, based on the procedure for estimating geo-stresses by the Kaiser effect under uniaxial compression. According to the statistical damage mechanics theory, the Kaiser effect mechanism was analyzed. Based on these analyses, it is indicted that the traditional method of estimating geo-stresses by the Kaiser effect is not appropriate, and the result is usually smaller than the real one. Furthermore, the greater confining compression in the rock mass may result in a larger difference between the Kaiser effect stresses acquired from uniaxial loading in laboratory and the real in-situ stresses.

  19. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  20. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  1. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  2. Sensitivity of fish density estimates to standard analytical procedures applied to Great Lakes hydroacoustic data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Rudstam, Lars G.; Yule, Daniel L.; Warner, David M.; Schaner, Ted; Pientka, Bernie; Deller, John W.; Waterfield, Holly A.; Witzel, Larry D.; Sullivan, Patrick J.

    2013-01-01

    Standardized methods of data collection and analysis ensure quality and facilitate comparisons among systems. We evaluated the importance of three recommendations from the Standard Operating Procedure for hydroacoustics in the Laurentian Great Lakes (GLSOP) on density estimates of target species: noise subtraction; setting volume backscattering strength (Sv) thresholds from user-defined minimum target strength (TS) of interest (TS-based Sv threshold); and calculations of an index for multiple targets (Nv index) to identify and remove biased TS values. Eliminating noise had the predictable effect of decreasing density estimates in most lakes. Using the TS-based Sv threshold decreased fish densities in the middle and lower layers in the deepest lakes with abundant invertebrates (e.g., Mysis diluviana). Correcting for biased in situ TS increased measured density up to 86% in the shallower lakes, which had the highest fish densities. The current recommendations by the GLSOP significantly influence acoustic density estimates, but the degree of importance is lake dependent. Applying GLSOP recommendations, whether in the Laurentian Great Lakes or elsewhere, will improve our ability to compare results among lakes. We recommend further development of standards, including minimum TS and analytical cell size, for reducing the effect of biased in situ TS on density estimates.

  3. Estimating 14C groundwater ages in a methanogenic aquifer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aravena, Ramon; Wassenaar, Leonard I; Plummer, L. Niel

    1995-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of 14C age dating of groundwaters in a confined regional aquifer affected by methanogenesis. Increasing CH4 concentrations along the groundwater flow system and 13C and 14C isotopic data for dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, and CH4 clearly show the effect of methanogenesis on groundwater chemistry. Inverse reaction path modeling using NETPATH indicates the predominant geochemical reactions controlling the chemical evolution of groundwater in the aquifer are incongruent dissolution of dolomite, ion exchange, methanogenesis, and oxidation of sedimentary organic matter. Modeling of groundwater 14C ages using NETPATH indicates that a significant part of groundwater in the Alliston aquifer is less than 13,000 years old; however, older groundwater in the range of 15,000–23,000 years is also present in the aquifer. This paper demonstrates that 14C ages calculated using NETPATH, incorporating the effects of methanogenesis on the carbon pools, provide reasonable groundwater ages that were not possible by other isotopic methods.

  4. Are the new automated methods for bone age estimation advantageous over the manual approaches?

    PubMed

    De Sanctis, Vincenzo; Soliman, Ashraf T; Di Maio, Salvatore; Bedair, Said

    2014-12-01

    Bone Age Assessment (BAA) is performed worldwide for the evaluation of endocrine, genetic and chronic diseases, to monitor response to medical therapy and to determine the growth potential of children and adolescents. It is also used for consultation in planning orthopedic procedures, for determination of chronological age for adopted children, youth sports participation and in forensic settings. The main clinical methods for skeletal bone age estimation are the Greulich and Pyle (GP) and the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW) methods. Seventy six per cent (76%) of radiologists or pediatricians usually use the method of GP, 20% that of TW and 4% other methods. The advantages of using the TW method, as opposed to the GP method, are that it overcomes the subjectivity problem and results are more reproducible. However, it is complex and time consuming; for this reason its usage is just about 20% on a world-wide scale. Moreover, there are some evidences that bone age assignments by different physicians can differ significantly. Computerized and Quantitative Ultrasound Technologies (QUS) for assessing skeletal maturity have been developed with the aim of reducing many of the inconsistencies associated with radiographic investigations. In spite of the fact that the volume of automated methods for BAA has increased, the majotity of them are still in an early phase of development. QUS is comparable to the GP based method, but there is not enough established data yet for the healthy population. The Authors wish to stimulate the attention on the accuracy, reliability and consistency of BAA and to initiate a debate on manual versus automated approaches to enhance our assessment for skeletal matutation in children and adolescents.

  5. A rational procedure for estimation of greenhouse-gas emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants.

    PubMed

    Monteith, Hugh D; Sahely, Halla R; MacLean, Heather L; Bagley, David M

    2005-01-01

    Municipal wastewater treatment may lead to the emission of greenhouse gases. The current Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland) approach attributes only methane emissions to wastewater treatment, but this approach may overestimate greenhouse gas emissions from the highly aerobic processes primarily used in North America. To better estimate greenhouse gas emissions, a procedure is developed that can be used either with plant-specific data or more general regional data. The procedure was evaluated using full-scale data from 16 Canadian wastewater treatment facilities and then applied to all 10 Canadian provinces. The principal greenhouse gas emitted from municipal wastewater treatment plants was estimated to be carbon dioxide (CO2), with very little methane expected. The emission rates ranged from 0.005 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 treated for primary treatment facilities to 0.26 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 for conventional activated sludge, with anaerobic sludge digestion to over 0.8 kg CO2-equivalent/m3 for extended aeration with aerobic digestion. Increasing the effectiveness of biogas generation and use will decrease the greenhouse gas emissions that may be assigned to the wastewater treatment plant.

  6. Validation of transition analysis as a method of adult age estimation in a modern South African sample.

    PubMed

    Jooste, N; L'Abbé, E N; Pretorius, S; Steyn, M

    2016-09-01

    The use of advanced statistical methods, such as transition analysis, has transformed adult age estimation into a systematically and statistically appropriate practice. The method developed by Boldsen and colleagues (2002) uses 36 features from the cranial sutures, pubic symphysis and auricular surface to calculate maximum likelihood point estimates and 95% confidence intervals, using the ADBOU computer software. However, when using the method in a geographically and contextually distinct sample, such as South Africa, accuracy and precision is of concern. This study aimed to test the repeatability, accuracy and precision of the transition analysis method, using the ADBOU computer software, on a South African sample. Age estimations were generated, for 149 black individuals from the Pretoria Bone Collection, using three individual components as well as different combinations of components and prior distributions (uniform and informative). The informative prior distributions represented both an archaeological and a forensic context. Cohen's kappa statistic uncovered some failings in the scoring procedure. While the accuracy compared favourably with existing methods, the method lacked satisfactory precision. Although combining the components improved accuracy and precision, removing the cranium from the combination was beneficial in some instances. The influence of population variation was observed in the scoring procedure, reference sample and the prior distributions. Validity may be improved for a South African sample by adding age-related components that have been developed on a relevant population. A prior distribution based on South African mortality rates might also be beneficial.

  7. Ages and Accumulation Rates of the Martian Polar Layered Deposits Estimated from Orbital Tuning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sori, M.; Bailey, E. A.; Perron, J.; Huybers, P. J.; Aharonson, O.; Limaye, A.

    2013-12-01

    Layers of dusty water ice in the polar caps of Mars have been hypothesized to record climate changes driven by variation of the planet's orbit and spin axis, but the time interval over which the polar layered deposits (PLDs) formed is unknown, and an orbital influence has not been conclusively demonstrated. We performed orbital tuning of reconstructed PLD stratigraphic sequences in an attempt to constrain the accumulation interval and test for the presence of an orbital signal. Our procedure uses dynamic time warping (DTW) to search for a match between two time series - the polar insolation history and brightness or topographic information in the PLDs - and then assesses the significance of potential matches using a Monte Carlo procedure. We selected 30 images of the northern PLDs from the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and used Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter profiles to transform each image into a record of image brightness as a function of vertical depth. To constrain the PLD age and accumulation rate, we tuned each image record to Martian insolation records for varying time intervals. If a particular insolation interval produced the strongest match to an image, and if the match became weaker as the image was tuned to progressively longer or shorter intervals, we chose the best-fitting interval as an estimated accumulation time for that PLD sequence, and used the depth range to estimate a corresponding PLD accumulation rate. We also tuned the insolation records to synthetic records containing no orbital influence to test whether the image matches were spurious. Of the 30 MOC images analyzed, 16 produce insolation intervals that we consider strong matches. These images yield an average deposition rate of 0.5 × 0.2 mm/yr for the northern PLDs. The images represent only a fraction of the entire stratigraphy; extrapolating that deposition rate farther back in time yields an age of ~4 Ma for the entire PLD sequence present in the

  8. Estimation of Age Using Alveolar Bone Loss: Forensic and Anthropological Applications.

    PubMed

    Ruquet, Michel; Saliba-Serre, Bérengère; Tardivo, Delphine; Foti, Bruno

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to utilize a new odontological methodological approach based on radiographic for age estimation. The study was comprised of 397 participants aged between 9 and 87 years. A clinical examination and a radiographic assessment of alveolar bone loss were performed. Direct measures of alveolar bone level were recorded using CT scans. A medical examination report was attached to the investigation file. Because of the link between alveolar bone loss and age, a model was proposed to enable simple, reliable, and quick age estimation. This work added new arguments for age estimation. This study aimed to develop a simple, standardized, and reproducible technique for age estimation of adults of actual populations in forensic medicine and ancient populations in funeral anthropology.

  9. Accuracy of age estimation methods from orthopantomograph in forensic odontology: a comparative study.

    PubMed

    Khorate, Manisha M; Dinkar, A D; Ahmed, Junaid

    2014-01-01

    Changes related to chronological age are seen in both hard and soft tissue. A number of methods for age estimation have been proposed which can be classified in four categories, namely, clinical, radiological, histological and chemical analysis. In forensic odontology, age estimation based on tooth development is universally accepted method. The panoramic radiographs of 500 healthy Goan, Indian children (250 boys and 250 girls) aged between 4 and 22.1 years were selected. Modified Demirjian's method (1973/2004), Acharya AB formula (2011), Dr Ajit D. Dinkar (1984) regression equation, Foti and coworkers (2003) formula (clinical and radiological) were applied for estimation of age. The result of our study has shown that Dr Ajit D. Dinkar method is more accurate followed by Acharya Indian-specific formula. Furthermore, in this study by applying all these methods to one regional population, we have attempted to present dental age estimation methodology best suited for the Goan Indian population.

  10. Procedure for estimating salinity distribution based on resistivity data for a rock mass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizuno, T.; Iwatsuki, T.; Matsuzaki, T.

    2012-12-01

    Site characterization work will be conducted to understand the geological environment around any site of possible interest for geological disposal of HLW. An approach to reduce uncertainty in the understanding of a geological environment is to increase the investigation density. However, it can be costly and time consuming. Therefore, any increase in investigation density should be done as effectively as possible. Hydrochemical properties, essential characteristics of any geological environment, are developed using hydrochemical data. The data are generally obtained by chemical analyses of groundwater samples from boreholes. However, hydrochemical samples, though taken selectively are not continuous and thus hydrochemical data are point data. On the other hand, the resistivity data, determined using continuous borehole geophysical logging, can be used to estimate the hydrochemical (salinity) distribution. Therefore, if salinity distributions can be estimated from resistivity data, investigation density would be effectively higher. This study has aimed to develop the methodology for estimation of salinity distribution by resistivity data of the boreholes drilled around the Horonobe URL in Hokkaido, northern Japan. JAEA has established the URL as a part of the national R&D program for geological disposal of HLW. In addition, the technical knowledge and know-how learnt through this study are summarized as a "case-base (data base of investigation examples)" to incorporate into the Information Synthesis and Interpretation System (ISIS) that has been developed by JAEA for the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, as a part of its supporting program in 2007. The procedure for estimation of salinity is as follows; (1) Confirmation the applicability of the data of resistivity logging, (2) Conversion of resistivity data to salinity, (3) Comparison of the results of chemical analyses and the calculated results in (2). This study shows that calculated salinity agree well

  11. Motor Skills Enhance Procedural Memory Formation and Protect against Age-Related Decline

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Nils C. J.; Genzel, Lisa; Konrad, Boris N.; Pawlowski, Marcel; Neville, David; Fernández, Guillén; Steiger, Axel

    2016-01-01

    The ability to consolidate procedural memories declines with increasing age. Prior knowledge enhances learning and memory consolidation of novel but related information in various domains. Here, we present evidence that prior motor experience–in our case piano skills–increases procedural learning and has a protective effect against age-related decline for the consolidation of novel but related manual movements. In our main experiment, we tested 128 participants with a sequential finger-tapping motor task during two sessions 24 hours apart. We observed enhanced online learning speed and offline memory consolidation for piano players. Enhanced memory consolidation was driven by a strong effect in older participants, whereas younger participants did not benefit significantly from prior piano experience. In a follow up independent control experiment, this compensatory effect of piano experience was not visible after a brief offline period of 30 minutes, hence requiring an extended consolidation window potentially involving sleep. Through a further control experiment, we rejected the possibility that the decreased effect in younger participants was caused by training saturation. We discuss our results in the context of the neurobiological schema approach and suggest that prior experience has the potential to rescue memory consolidation from age-related cognitive decline. PMID:27333186

  12. Age estimation in Portuguese population: The application of the London atlas of tooth development and eruption.

    PubMed

    Pavlović, Strahinja; Palmela Pereira, Cristiana; Vargas de Sousa Santos, Rui Filipe

    2017-03-01

    Chronological age estimation from the dental parameters is becoming increasingly important. The London atlas of tooth development is the most recent developed method and represents a modification of the previous older methods. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the London atlas for the dental age estimation in the Portuguese population. The study sample included 736 radiographic images (498 females and 238 males) of Portuguese origin, patients of Dental Clinic of Superior Institute of Health Sciences Egas Moniz and Dental Medicine Faculty, University of Lisbon. The age range of the individuals was between 3 and 24 years. Estimated age was compared with the chronological age using the paired t-test. The results showed that there was no statistically significant difference between left and right side of the jaw (p>0.05). Both sides showed an average overestimation of age by one month approximately. Moreover, the significant difference between chronological and estimated age was not observed in the females. However, the significant difference was observed in a sample coming from males (right: p=0.008; left: p=0.003). Our results showed that the London atlas can be potentially used as a tool for age estimation. However, the difference between sexes clearly suggests that separate charts should be made for each sex. Further studies, which will have as a final goal the development of a new method for age estimation using dental parameters, are needed.

  13. [Some notes on methods of age estimation: an attempt in a Sundanese village, West Java].

    PubMed

    Igarashi, T

    1982-09-01

    This study is concerned with the problem of age misstatement in Indonesia. The author first presents an analysis of age data that were collected directly from the population of a Sundanese village in West Java and that indicate the extent of the problem. Various approaches used to estimate age and the problems associated with their use are then described. (summary in ENG)

  14. Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

  15. Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

    PubMed

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2011-01-01

    Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies.

  16. The utility of near infrared spectroscopy for age estimation of deepwater sharks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigby, Cassandra L.; Wedding, Brett B.; Grauf, Steve; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable age information is vital for effective fisheries management, yet age determinations are absent for many deepwater sharks as they cannot be aged using traditional methods of growth bands counts. An alternative approach to ageing using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated using dorsal fin spines, vertebrae and fin clips of three species of deepwater sharks. Ages were successfully estimated for the two dogfish, Squalus megalops and Squalus montalbani, and NIRS spectra were correlated with body size in the catshark, Asymbolus pallidus. Correlations between estimated-ages of the dogfish dorsal fin spines and their NIRS spectra were good, with S. megalops R2=0.82 and S. montalbani R2=0.73. NIRS spectra from S. megalops vertebrae and fin clips that have no visible growth bands were correlated with estimated-ages, with R2=0.89 and 0.76, respectively. NIRS has the capacity to non-lethally estimate ages from fin spines and fin clips, and thus could significantly reduce the numbers of sharks that need to be lethally sampled for ageing studies. The detection of ageing materials by NIRS in poorly calcified deepwater shark vertebrae could potentially enable ageing of this group of sharks that are vulnerable to exploitation.

  17. Heterogeneous Rates of Molecular Evolution and Diversification Could Explain the Triassic Age Estimate for Angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C; Crane, Peter; Donoghue, Michael J

    2015-09-01

    Dating analyses based on molecular data imply that crown angiosperms existed in the Triassic, long before their undisputed appearance in the fossil record in the Early Cretaceous. Following a re-analysis of the age of angiosperms using updated sequences and fossil calibrations, we use a series of simulations to explore the possibility that the older age estimates are a consequence of (i) major shifts in the rate of sequence evolution near the base of the angiosperms and/or (ii) the representative taxon sampling strategy employed in such studies. We show that both of these factors do tend to yield substantially older age estimates. These analyses do not prove that younger age estimates based on the fossil record are correct, but they do suggest caution in accepting the older age estimates obtained using current relaxed-clock methods. Although we have focused here on the angiosperms, we suspect that these results will shed light on dating discrepancies in other major clades.

  18. Accuracy of Four Dental Age Estimation Methods in Southern Indian Children

    PubMed Central

    Sanghvi, Praveen; Perumalla, Kiran Kumar; Srinivasaraju, D.; Srinivas, Jami; Kalyan, U. Siva; Rasool, SK. Md. Iftekhar

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: For various forensic investigations of both living and dead individuals, the knowledge of the actual age or date of birth of the subject is of utmost importance. In recent years, age estimation has gained importance for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. Developing teeth are used to assess maturity and estimate age in number of disciplines; however the accuracy of different methods has not been assessed systematically. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of four dental age estimation methods. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomographs (OPGS) of South Indian children between the ages of 6 and 16 y who visited the department of Department of Oral medicine and Radiology of GITAM Dental College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India with similar ethnic origin were assessed. Dental age was calculated using Demirjian, Willems, Nolla, and adopted Haavikko methods and the difference between estimated dental age and chronological age were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: An overestimation of the dental age was observed by using Demirjian and Nolla methods (0.1±1.63, 0.47±0.83 years in total sample respectively) and an underestimation of dental age was observed by using Willems and Haavikko methods (-0.4±1.53, -2.9±1.41 years respectively in total sample). Conclusion: Nolla’s method was more accurate in estimating dental age compared to other methods. Moreover, all the four methods were found to be reliable in estimating age of individuals of unknown chronological age in South Indian children. PMID:25738008

  19. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  20. Age estimation for shovelnose sturgeon: A cautionary note based on annulus formation in pectoral fin rays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whiteman, K.W.; Travnichek, V.H.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.; Papoulias, D.; Tillett, D.

    2004-01-01

    Numerous studies have examined the age and growth of shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, but only one study attempted to validate age estimation techniques. Therefore, our objective was to use marginal increment analysis to validate annulus formation in pectoral fin rays of shovelnose sturgeon collected from the Missouri River. We also compared the precision of age estimates between two different readers. Marginal increment distance indicated that for most of the populations an opaque band was laid down in pectoral fin rays during the summer. However, opaque bands were formed throughout the year in some individuals, which could be problematic when using fin rays for age estimation. The agreement of age estimates by two readers for shovelnose sturgeon was only 18%, and differences in ages between the two readers increased for older fish. The presence of split annuli, false annuli, spawning bands, imbedded rays, and deteriorating sections made individual growth rings difficult to separate. Our findings verified that opaque bands are formed annually during the summer in the pectoral fin rays of most shovelnose sturgeon, but some individuals form opaque bands during other times. Pectoral fin rays will probably continue to be the most practical method of age estimation in shovelnose sturgeon, but ages estimated by this method should be used with caution.

  1. Improved age modelling and high-precision age estimates of late Quaternary tephras, for accurate palaeoclimate reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon P. E.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Pyle, D. M.

    2008-10-01

    The role of tephrochronology, as a dating and stratigraphic tool, in precise palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction, has expanded significantly in recent years. The power of tephrochronology rests on the fact that a tephra layer can stratigraphically link records at the resolution of as little as a few years, and that the most precise age for a particular tephra can be imported into any site where it is found. In order to maximise the potential of tephras for this purpose it is necessary to have the most precise and robustly tested age estimate possible available for key tephras. Given the varying number and quality of dates associated with different tephras it is important to be able to build age models to test competing tephra dates. Recent advances in Bayesian age modelling of dates in sequence have radically extended our ability to build such stratigraphic age models. As an example of the potential here we use Bayesian methods, now widely applied, to examine the dating of some key Late Quaternary tephras from Italy. These are: the Agnano Monte Spina Tephra (AMST), the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) and the Agnano Pomici Principali (APP), and all of them have multiple estimates of their true age. Further, we use the Bayesian approaches to generate a revised mixed radiocarbon/varve chronology for the important Lateglacial section of the Lago Grande Monticchio record, as a further illustration of what can be achieved by a Bayesian approach. With all three tephras we were able to produce viable model ages for the tephra, validate the proposed 40Ar/ 39Ar age ranges for these tephras, and provide relatively high precision age models. The results of the Bayesian integration of dating and stratigraphic information, suggest that the current best 95% confidence calendar age estimates for the AMST are 4690-4300 cal BP, the NYT 14320-13900 cal BP, and the APP 12380-12140 cal BP.

  2. Estimation of inbreeding from ecclesiastical dispensations: application of three procedures to a Spanish case.

    PubMed

    Fuster, Vicente; Colantonio, Sonia

    2002-07-01

    The inbreeding coefficient of a population, estimated from ecclesiastical Roman Catholic dispensations, results from the relative contribution of different degrees of relationships (uncle-niece, first cousin, etc.). The interpopulation comparisons of consanguinity patterns may be obscured by the fact that in 1918 the Roman Catholic Church norm regulating the closest marriageable kinship was modified, limiting the application for an ecclesiastical dispensation to relatives of third degree (second cousins) or closer. Depending on the length of the period before or after the change of regulation, coefficients and rates may differ. Deviation of frequencies for multiple marriages may also occur. The aim of the present paper is to determine how the chosen procedure based on ecclesiastical dispensations may affect results, regarding the inbreeding coefficient, the consanguinity rate, the structure of consanguinity and the close/remote kinship ratio. As a sample case, information from the Gredos mountain range (central Spain) has been used.

  3. Learning algorithm in restricted Boltzmann machines using Kullback-Leibler importance estimation procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yasuda, Muneki; Sakurai, Tetsuharu; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

    Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are bipartite structured statistical neural networks and consist of two layers. One of them is a layer of visible units and the other one is a layer of hidden units. In each layer, any units do not connect to each other. RBMs have high flexibility and rich structure and have been expected to applied to various applications, for example, image and pattern recognitions, face detections and so on. However, most of computational models in RBMs are intractable and often belong to the class of NP-hard problem. In this paper, in order to construct a practical learning algorithm for them, we employ the Kullback-Leibler Importance Estimation Procedure (KLIEP) to RBMs, and give a new scheme of practical approximate learning algorithm for RBMs based on the KLIEP.

  4. [Problems associated with chronological age estimation of children exploited in child pornography production].

    PubMed

    Bednarek, Jarosław

    2006-01-01

    Chronological age assessment of young persons featuring in pornographic pictures and videos is crucial to prove a violation of law. The paper discusses possibilities of and difficulties inherent in age estimation in cases of production and distribution of child pornography. The presented problems were divided into technical and individual development-associated issues. Technical difficulties included lack of a reference system for biological features reconstruction, poor quality and resolution of pictures or movies, pictures retouching and photomontage. The author stressed that biological hindrances in age assessment were the consequences of interpersonal variation of developmental patterns, namely overlapping of ranges typical for feature values at particular ages and biological variations between different human populations. The described problems can render age estimation impossible or far from precise. Developing more accurate methods of estimating age from pictures and videos requires the collaboration of specialists in the field of auxology, anthropology, pediatrics, as well as experts in photography and video techniques.

  5. Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, J.L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

    1997-01-01

    We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

  6. An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

    2011-01-01

    Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

  7. A simplified procedure for mass and stiffness estimation of existing structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nigro, Antonella; Ditommaso, Rocco; Carlo Ponzo, Felice; Salvatore Nigro, Domenico

    2016-04-01

    This work focuses the attention on a parametric method for mass and stiffness identification of framed structures, based on frequencies evaluation. The assessment of real structures is greatly affected by the consistency of information retrieved on materials and on the influence of both non-structural components and soil. One of the most important matter is the correct definition of the distribution, both in plan and in elevation, of mass and stiffness: depending on concentrated and distributed loads, the presence of infill panels and the distribution of structural elements. In this study modal identification is performed under several mass-modified conditions and structural parameters consistent with the identified modal parameters are determined. Modal parameter identification of a structure before and after the introduction of additional masses is conducted. By considering the relationship between the additional masses and modal properties before and after the mass modification, structural parameters of a damped system, i.e. mass, stiffness and damping coefficient are inversely estimated from these modal parameters variations. The accuracy of the method can be improved by using various mass-modified conditions. The proposed simplified procedure has been tested on both numerical and experimental models by means linear numerical analyses and shaking table tests performed on scaled structures at the Seismic Laboratory of the University of Basilicata (SISLAB). Results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed procedure to estimate masses and stiffness of existing real structures with a maximum error equal to 10%, under the worst conditions. Acknowledgements This study was partially funded by the Italian Civil Protection Department within the project DPC-RELUIS 2015 - RS4 ''Seismic observatory of structures and health monitoring''.

  8. Hydrology of the lower Little Red River, Arkansas, and a procedure for estimating available streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grosz, G.D.; Terry, J.E.; Hall, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, conducted a hydrologic investigation of the lower Little Red River from near Searcy, Arkansas (mi 31.7), to the river 's mouth at its confluence with the White River. During 1983 and 1984, data were collected on streamflow, stream altitude, groundwater altitude and diversion pumping from the Little Red River. Flow in the Little Red River near Searcy is computed by using a modified stage/fall/discharge relation and stage data collected at Searcy and at Judsonia 6.5 mi downstream. This procedure uses a family of 12 rating curves that can be selected by stage records at Searcy and fall records between Searcy and Judsonia. A comparison of water levels in the river to water levels in selected alluvial wells near the river indicates that the Little Red is a gaining stream during summer and fall low periods and is a losing stream during periods of high flow. Flows in the lower Little Red River are also significantly affected by releases from Greers Ferry Reservoir at mi 78.8 and by varying backwater conditions resulting from high stages on the White River. To meet the expressed needs of the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, a mass balance procedure was developed to be used for estimating the amount of streamflow available along a reach of stream, given a minimum instream flow requirement set by the regulating authority. This procedure was coded into a computer program that can be invoked interactively as an aid in making streamflow allocation decisions and in maintaining related data bases. (USGS)

  9. Accuracy of dental age estimation in Venezuelan children: comparison of Demirjian and Willems methods.

    PubMed

    Medina, Aída C; Blanco, Lucila

    2014-01-01

    Dental age is a somatic maturity indicator with importance in clinical and forensic dentistry. The purpose of this study is to compare the applicability of the Demirjian and Willems methods for dental age estimation in a group of Venezuelan children. Panoramic radiographs of 238 Venezuelan children aged 5-13 years were used to assess dental age using the methods described by Demirjian and Willems. Children with unclear panoramic radiographs, dental agenesis, and premature loss of primary teeth were excluded. Mean differences between dental age and chronological age by gender and age groups were estimated (ANOVA, Student tests p = 0.05). For the Demirjian method, the mean difference between dental age and chronological age was 0.62 +/- 0.93 years, statistically significant. The mean overestimation was lower for females than for males (females 0.56 +/- 0.96 years, males 0.67 +/- 0.93 years). For the Willems method, the mean difference between dental age and chronological age was 0.15 +/- 0.97 years, not statistically significant. Accuracy was significantly different between genders, performing best for females (females 0.01 +/- 0.96 years, males 0.29 +/- 0.96 years). The Willems method for age estimation was found to be more accurate than the Demirjian method in this sample of Venezuelan children.

  10. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691

  11. Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

  12. Recollection, not familiarity, decreases in healthy aging: Converging evidence from four estimation methods

    PubMed Central

    Koen, Joshua D.; Yonelinas, Andrew P.

    2014-01-01

    Although it is generally accepted that aging is associated with recollection impairments, there is considerable disagreement surrounding how healthy aging influences familiarity-based recognition. One factor that might contribute to the mixed findings regarding age differences in familiarity is the estimation method used to quantify the two mnemonic processes. Here, this issue is examined by having a group of older adults (N = 39) between 40 and 81 years of age complete Remember/Know (RK), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and process dissociation (PD) recognition tests. Estimates of recollection, but not familiarity, showed a significant negative correlation with chronological age. Inconsistent with previous findings, the estimation method did not moderate the relationship between age and estimations of recollection and familiarity. In a final analysis, recollection and familiarity were estimated as latent factors in a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) that modeled the covariance between measures of free recall and recognition, and the results converged with the results from the RK, PD, and ROC tasks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that episodic memory declines in older adults are primary driven by recollection deficits, and also suggest that the estimation method plays little to no role in age-related decreases in familiarity. PMID:25485974

  13. Manure sampling procedures and nutrient estimation by the hydrometer method for gestation pigs.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Jun; Ndegwa, Pius M; Zhang, Zhijian

    2004-05-01

    Three manure agitation procedures were examined in this study (vertical mixing, horizontal mixing, and no mixing) to determine the efficacy of producing a representative manure sample. The total solids content for manure from gestation pigs was found to be well correlated with the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the manure, with highly significant correlation coefficients of 0.988 and 0.994, respectively. Linear correlations were observed between the TN and TP contents and the manure specific gravity (correlation coefficients: 0.991 and 0.987, respectively). Therefore, it may be inferred that the nutrients in pig manure can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by measuring the liquid manure specific gravity. A rapid testing method for manure nutrient contents (TN and TP) using a soil hydrometer was also evaluated. The results showed that the estimating error increased from +/-10% to +/-30% with the decrease in TN (from 1000 to 100 ppm) and TP (from 700 to 50 ppm) concentrations in the manure. Data also showed that the hydrometer readings had to be taken within 10 s after mixing to avoid reading drift in specific gravity due to the settling of manure solids.

  14. Applying a correction procedure to the prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity in the German part of the HBSC study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Prevalence rates for overweight and obesity based on self-reported height and weight are underestimated, whereas the prevalence rate for underweight is slightly overestimated. Therefore a correction is needed. Aim of this study is to apply correction procedures to the prevalence rates developed on basis of (self-reported and measured) data from the representative German National Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS) to (self-reported) data from the German Health Behaviour in School Aged Children (HBSC) study to determine whether correction leads to higher prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity as well as lower prevalence rates for underweight. Methods BMI classifications based on self-reported and measured height and weight from a subsample of the KiGGS study (2,565 adolescents aged 11–15) were used to estimate two different correction formulas. The first and the second correction function are described. Furthermore, the both formulas were applied to the prevalence rates from the HBSC study (7,274 adolescents aged 11–15) which are based on self-reports collected via self-administered questionnaires. Results After applying the first correction function to self-reported data of the HBSC study, the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity increased from 5.5% to 7.8% (compared to 10.4% in the KiGGS study) and 2.7% to 3.8% (compared to 7.8% in the KiGGS study), respectively, whereas the corrected prevalence rates of underweight and severe underweight decreased from 8.0% to 6.7% (compared to 5.7% in the KiGGS study) and from 5.5% to 3.3% (compared to 2.4% in the KiGGS study), respectively. Application of the second correction function, which additionally considers body image, led to further slight corrections with an increase of the prevalence rates for overweight to 7.9% and for obese to 3.9%. Conclusion Subjective BMI can be used to determine the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and

  15. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  16. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results.

  17. A hybrid downscaling procedure for estimating the vertical distribution of ambient temperature in local scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiannikopoulou, I.; Philippopoulos, K.; Deligiorgi, D.

    2012-04-01

    The vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere is defined by a combination of dynamic and radiation transfer processes and plays an important role in describing the meteorological conditions at local scales. The scope of this work is to develop and quantify the predictive ability of a hybrid dynamic-statistical downscaling procedure to estimate the vertical profile of ambient temperature at finer spatial scales. The study focuses on the warm period of the year (June - August) and the method is applied to an urban coastal site (Hellinikon), located in eastern Mediterranean. The two-step methodology initially involves the dynamic downscaling of coarse resolution climate data via the RegCM4.0 regional climate model and subsequently the statistical downscaling of the modeled outputs by developing and training site-specific artificial neural networks (ANN). The 2.5ox2.5o gridded NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 dataset is used as initial and boundary conditions for the dynamic downscaling element of the methodology, which enhances the regional representivity of the dataset to 20km and provides modeled fields in 18 vertical levels. The regional climate modeling results are compared versus the upper-air Hellinikon radiosonde observations and the mean absolute error (MAE) is calculated between the four grid point values nearest to the station and the ambient temperature at the standard and significant pressure levels. The statistical downscaling element of the methodology consists of an ensemble of ANN models, one for each pressure level, which are trained separately and employ the regional scale RegCM4.0 output. The ANN models are theoretically capable of estimating any measurable input-output function to any desired degree of accuracy. In this study they are used as non-linear function approximators for identifying the relationship between a number of predictor variables and the ambient temperature at the various vertical levels. An insight of the statistically derived input

  18. Egg flotation estimates nest age for Pacific and Red-throated Loons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rizzolo, Daniel; Schmutz, Joel A.

    2007-01-01

    We used Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica) and Red-throated Loon (G. stellata) nests with known ages to gauge the efficacy of egg flotation for determining nest age in coastal Alaska. Egg flotation accurately estimated nest age for both species; the mean ± 1SD difference between known age and age determined with egg flotation was - 0.05 ± 2.00 d and -0.02 ± 1.63 d for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, respectively. Day of nest initiation did not influence the relationship between known nest age and nest age estimated with egg flotation, indicating incubation period was not shortened in nests initiated later in the season. Additionally, we found no difference in the ability of egg flotation to estimate nest age between two widely dispersed study sites for Pacific Loons, and only a small difference between two of three widely dispersed study sites for Red-throated Loons. Thus, our described relationships between egg flotation categories and nest age should be broadly applicable for these holarctic species. We conclude that for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, egg flotation is a useful technique for determining nest age in the field to better monitor nest fate, and to quantify nest age effects on nest daily survival rate.

  19. Procedural and mathematical considerations in urea dilution estimation of body composition in lambs.

    PubMed

    Bartle, S J; Turgeon, O A; Preston, R L; Brink, D R

    1988-08-01

    Two experiments (n = 46 and 56, respectively) were conducted to evaluate urea dilution as an estimator of body composition in lambs and to address certain procedural and mathematical considerations in this technique. In Exp. 1, 14 blood samples were taken over 240 min after urea infusion. The equation describing the urea clearance curve was: delta PUN = 9.7e-.1727(min) + 10.4e-.0021(min), pools 1 and 2, respectively (r2 = .99, P less than .001; individual lamb effects removed). In the combined experiments, urea space (US) was related to percentage of empty body water (PEBH2O) by the equation 31.7 + .471 US (empty body weight basis; r2 = .56, P less than .001). The regression equation indicates that the US-PEBH2O relationship in lambs is different from that reported in cattle, even though urea clearance kinetics are similar. Although the prediction equations appeared to be biologically valid, considerable error was associated with the composition estimates. The PEBH2O was predicted as well by live weight (r2 = .69; SEy.x = 3.0) as by US in these experiments. The two-sample method (T12 minus T0) to determine the change in marker concentration was shown to be related more closely (r2 = .56) to PEBH2O than the standard multisample extrapolation to T0 method (r2 = .0 and .38 for pools 1 and 2, respectively). An equilibration time of 9 to 12 min provided the best estimate of body composition in lambs.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  20. First rib metamorphosis: its possible utility for human age-at-death estimation.

    PubMed

    Kunos, C A; Simpson, S W; Russell, K F; Hershkovitz, I

    1999-11-01

    Human first ribs demonstrate predictable, sequential changes in shape, size, and texture with increasing age, and thus, can be used as an indicator of age at death. Metamorphosis of the first rib's head, tubercle, and costal face was documented in a cross-sectional sample of preadult and adult first ribs of known age at death from the Hamann-Todd skeletal collection (Cleveland Museum of Natural History, Cleveland, Ohio). Blind tests of the usefulness of the first rib as an age indicator were conducted, including tabulation of intraobserver and interobserver inaccuracies and biases. First rib age estimates show inaccuracies and biases by decade comparable to those generated by other aging techniques. Indeed, the first rib method is useful as an isolated age indicator. When used in conjunction with other age indicators, the first rib improves the quality of summary age assessments.

  1. Forensic age estimation in human skeletal remains: current concepts and future directions.

    PubMed

    Franklin, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    Skeletal identification has a long tradition in both physical and forensic anthropology. The process generally begins with formulation of a biological profile (osteobiography); specifically, estimation of sex, age, ethnicity and stature. The present paper briefly reviews a selection of the principal methods used for one aspect of the identification process; the estimation of personal age. It is well-documented that variability in the morphological features used to assess age in the human skeleton progressively increases from birth to old age. Thus choice of method is inherently related to whether unidentified remains are those of a juvenile or an adult. This review, therefore, considers methods appropriate for age estimation in both juvenile and adult remains; the former being primarily based on developmental, and the latter degenerative, morphological features. Such a review is timely as new methods are constantly being developed, concurrent with refinements to those already well established in mainstream anthropology.

  2. The incidence of asymmetrical left/right skeletal and dental development in an Australian population and the effect of this on forensic age estimations.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Briggs, Christopher; Drummer, Olaf H

    2012-03-01

    The prevalence of developmental asymmetry between left and right sides of the body in the third molar tooth and medial clavicular epiphysis is examined in a contemporary Australian population (92% Caucasian). The contention that differences between left and right side developmental timing is statistically insignificant, and can therefore be ignored in forensic age estimation procedures, is questioned. It was found that of a population sample of 604 individuals, 177 displayed asymmetrical timing in development between antimeres of the third molar, the medial clavicle or both. There was no correlation found between the third molar tooth and medial clavicular epiphysis in terms of left/right synchronicity. For those individuals differing in development by two or more developmental stages in either age marker or one stage in both age markers, the effect upon the accuracy of forensic age estimations can be significant. Differences in age estimates for each side were as much as 3.1 years. Age estimations based on one side only may not provide the best estimate for an individual, and more accurate results can be achieved if both sides are taken into consideration. A protocol for dealing with asymmetrical development is discussed with reference to the multifactorial age estimation method proposed by the same authors in previous research.

  3. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  4. A tilting algorithm for the estimation of fractional age survival probabilities.

    PubMed

    Barz, Christiane; Müller, Alfred

    2012-04-01

    Life tables used in life insurance determine the age of death distribution only at integer ages. Therefore, actuaries make fractional age assumptions to interpolate between integer age values when they have to value payments that are not restricted to integer ages. Traditional fractional age assumptions as well as the fractional independence assumption are easy to apply but result in a non-intuitive overall shape of the force of mortality. Other approaches proposed either require expensive optimization procedures or produce many discontinuities. We suggest a new, computationally inexpensive algorithm to select the parameters within the LFM-family introduced by Jones and Mereu (Insur Math Econ 27:261-276, 2000). In contrast to previously suggested methods, our algorithm enforces a monotone force of mortality between integer ages if the mortality rates are monotone and keeps the number of discontinuities small.

  5. Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2008-01-01

    Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

  6. Development of a biometric method to estimate age on hand radiographs.

    PubMed

    Remy, Floriane; Hossu, Gabriela; Cendre, Romain; Micard, Emilien; Mainard-Simard, Laurence; Felblinger, Jacques; Martrille, Laurent; Lalys, Loïc

    2017-02-01

    Age estimation of living individuals aged less than 13, 18 or 21 years, which are some relevant legal ages in most European countries, is currently problematic in the forensic context. Thus, numerous methods are available for legal authorities, although their efficiency can be discussed. For those reasons, we aimed to propose a new method, based on the biometric analysis of hand bones. 451 hand radiographs of French individuals under the age of 21 were retrospectively analyzed. This total sample was divided into three subgroups bounded by the relevant legal ages previously mentioned: 0-13, 13-18 and 18-21 years. On these radiographs, we numerically applied the osteometric board method used in anthropology, by including each metacarpal and proximal phalange of the five hand rays in the smallest rectangle possible. In that we can access their length and width information thanks to a measurement protocol developed precisely for our treatment with the ORS Visual(®) software. Then, a statistical analysis was performed from these biometric data: a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) evaluated the probability for an individual to belong to one of the age group (0-13, 13-18 or 18-21); and several multivariate regression models were tested for the establishment of age estimation formulas for each of these age groups. The mean Correlation Coefficient between chronological age and both lengths and widths of hand bones is equal to 0.90 for the total sample. Repeatability and reproducibility were assessed. The LDA could more easily predict the belonging to the 0-13 age group. Age can be estimated with a mean standard error which never exceeds 1 year for the 95% confidence interval. Finally, compared to the literature, we can conclude that estimating an age from the biometric information of metacarpals and proximal phalanges is promising.

  7. Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  8. The Successful Aging after Elective Surgery (SAGES) Study: Cohort Description and Data Quality Procedures

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Richard N.; Alsop, David C.; Fong, Tamara G.; Metzger, Eran; Cooper, Zara

    2015-01-01

    Background/Objectives Delirium is the most common complication of major elective surgery in older patients. The Successful Aging after Elective Surgery (SAGES) study was designed to examine novel risk factors and long-term outcomes associated with delirium. This report describes the cohort, quality assurance procedures, and results. Design Long-term prospective cohort study. Setting Three academic medical centers. Participants A total of 566 patients age 70 and older without recognized dementia scheduled for elective major surgery. Measurements Participants were assessed preoperatively, daily during hospitalization, and at variable monthly intervals for up to 36 months post-discharge. Delirium was assessed in hospital by trained study staff. Study outcomes included cognitive and physical function. Novel risk factors for delirium were assessed including genetic and plasma biomarkers, neuroimaging markers, and cognitive reserve markers. Interrater reliability (kappa and weighted kappa) was assessed for key variables in 119 of the patient interviews. Results Participants were an average of 77 years old and 58% were female. The majority of patients (81%) were undergoing orthopedic surgery and 24% developed delirium post-operatively. Over 95% of eligible patients were followed for 18 months. There was >99% capture of key study outcomes (cognitive and functional status) at every study interview and interrater reliability was high (weighted kappas for delirium = 0.92 and for overall cognitive and functional outcomes = 0.94 -1.0). Completion rates for plasma biomarkers (4 timepoints) were 95%-99% and for neuroimaging (one year follow-up) was 86%. Conclusion The SAGES study will contribute to the understanding of novel risk factors, pathophysiology and long-term outcomes of delirium. This manuscript describes the cohort and data quality procedures, and will serve as a reference source for future studies based on SAGES. PMID:26662213

  9. Use of soil catena field data for estimating relative ages of moraines

    SciTech Connect

    Birkeland, P.W.; Berry, M.E. ); Swanson, D.K. )

    1991-03-01

    Soils at the crests of moraines are commonly used to estimate the relative ages of moraines. However, for various pedologic and geomorphic reasons, soil development at crest sites may not truly reflect the time since moraine formation; for example, some crest soils on moraines of greatly different age are similar in morphology and development. Soil catena data for soils at several sites aligned downslope from the crest can greatly improve on the usefulness of soil data for estimating moraine ages. For this purpose, the authors use the weighted mean catena profile development index, which condenses field data for all of the soils in each catena into a single value.

  10. Investigating the Structure of the WJ-III Cognitive in Early School Age through Two Exploratory Bifactor Analysis Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dombrowski, Stefan C.

    2014-01-01

    Two exploratory bifactor methods (e.g., Schmid-Leiman [SL] and exploratory bifactor analysis [EBFA]) were used to investigate the structure of the Woodcock-Johnson III (WJ-III) Cognitive in early school age (age 6-8). The SL procedure is recognized by factor analysts as a preferred method for EBFA. Jennrich and Bentler recently developed an…

  11. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Coleman, Phil R

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.

  12. Service Lifetime Estimation of EPDM Rubber Based on Accelerated Aging Tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jie; Li, Xiangbo; Xu, Likun; He, Tao

    2017-02-01

    Service lifetime of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber at room temperature (25 °C) was estimated based on accelerated aging tests. The study followed sealing stress loss on compressed cylinder samples by compression stress relaxation methods. The results showed that the cylinder samples of EPDM can quickly reach the physical relaxation equilibrium by using the over-compression method. The non-Arrhenius behavior occurred at the lowest aging temperature. A significant linear relationship was observed between compression set values and normalized stress decay results, and the relationship was not related to the ambient temperature of aging. It was estimated that the sealing stress loss in view of practical application would occur after around 86.8 years at 25 °C. The estimations at 25 °C based on the non-Arrhenius behavior were in agreement with compression set data from storage aging tests in natural environment.

  13. A new remote sensing procedure for the estimation of crop water requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiliotopoulos, M.; Loukas, A.; Mylopoulos, N.

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this work is the development of a new approach for the estimation of water requirements for the most important crops located at Karla Watershed, central Greece. Satellite-based energy balance for mapping evapotranspiration with internalized calibration (METRIC) was used as a basis for the derivation of actual evapotranspiration (ET) and crop coefficient (ETrF) values from Landsat ETM+ imagery. MODIS imagery has been also used, and a spatial downscaling procedure is followed between the two sensors for the derivation of a new NDVI product with a spatial resolution of 30 m x 30 m. GER 1500 spectro-radiometric measurements are additionally conducted during 2012 growing season. Cotton, alfalfa, corn and sugar beets fields are utilized, based on land use maps derived from previous Landsat 7 ETM+ images. A filtering process is then applied to derive NDVI values after acquiring Landsat ETM+ based reflectance values from the GER 1500 device. ETrF vs NDVI relationships are produced and then applied to the previous satellite based downscaled product in order to finally derive a 30 m x 30 m daily ETrF map for the study area. CropWat model (FAO) is then applied, taking as an input the new crop coefficient values with a spatial resolution of 30 m x 30 m available for every crop. CropWat finally returns daily crop water requirements (mm) for every crop and the results are analyzed and discussed.

  14. Age Estimation in Living Egyptians Using Signal Joint T-cell Receptor Excision Circle Rearrangement.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Samah F; Gaballah, Iman F; Rashed, Laila A

    2016-07-01

    Age estimation is one of the challenges in forensic sciences. There are many techniques to estimate the age. Molecular biology approach is one of these techniques. Signal joint T-cell receptor excision circles gene (sjTRECs), is one of this approach. We aimed to use sjTRECs as a suitable marker for age estimation among Egyptian population. TaqMan qPCR approach was used to quantify sjTREC levels in blood samples obtained from 153 healthy Egyptian individuals ranging from a few weeks to 70 years. Our results showed a significant negative correlation between sjTREC levels and age with p ≤ 0.05. Moreover, the individual's age can be determined through this formula Age = -30.671+ (-5.998Y) (Y is dCtTBP - sjTREC) with standard error ±7.35 years. Within the forensic context, sjTREC' levels can be used to estimate the Egyptian individual's age accurately.

  15. Clonal diversity and estimation of relative clone age: application to agrobiodiversity of yam (Dioscorea rotundata)

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Clonal propagation is a particular reproductive system found in both the plant and animal kingdoms, from human parasites to clonally propagated crops. Clonal diversity provides information about plant and animal evolutionary history, i.e. how clones spread, or the age of a particular clone. In plants, this could provide valuable information about agrobiodiversity dynamics and more broadly about the evolutionary history of a particular crop. We studied the evolutionary history of yam, Dioscorea rotundata. In Africa, Yam is cultivated by tuber clonal propagation. Results We used 12 microsatellite markers to identify intra-clonal diversity in yam varieties. We then used this diversity to assess the relative ages of clones. Using simulations, we assessed how Approximate Bayesian Computation could use clonal diversity to estimate the age of a clone depending on the size of the sample, the number of independent samples and the number of markers. We then applied this approach to our particular dataset and showed that the relative ages of varieties could be estimated, and that each variety could be ranked by age. Conclusions We give a first estimation of clone age in an approximate Bayesian framework. However the precise estimation of clone age depends on the precision of the mutation rate. We provide useful information on agrobiodiversity dynamics and suggest recurrent creation of varietal diversity in a clonally propagated crop. PMID:24219837

  16. The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Merritt, Catherine E

    2015-01-01

    Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The İşcan et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey-Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann-Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log-age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides.

  17. Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2017-03-30

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

  18. Shape variability of the adult human acetabulum and acetabular fossa related to sex and age by geometric morphometrics. Implications for adult age estimation.

    PubMed

    San-Millán, Marta; Rissech, Carme; Turbón, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    This study aims to explore shape variability of the acetabulum during the human adult life span, in relation to sex and age. The human acetabular shape was analysed in 682 os coxae from three different documented skeletal collections from the Iberian Peninsula. Two landmarks and thirty-two sliding semi-landmarks were used for the geometric morphometric procedures and a clock-wise standard was used for orientation. The 180° meridian (6:00) line was positioned over the midpoint of the acetabular notch and 36 reference points in 10° increments along the rim were marked. Data showed that size, sex and age significantly influence acetabular shape variation. Sex differences were significant in individuals younger than 65 years old and were characterised by males exhibiting relatively extended acetabular rim profiles from 10:00 to 1:00, narrower acetabular notches, and reduced acetabular fossae. In addition, three main age-related changes occurred to the acetabular shape in both sexes: outer acetabular profile modification, with extension from 10:00 to 1:00 and reduction from 7:00 to 9:00, acetabular notch narrowing, and acetabular fossa reduction. The age-related changes that were observed are shared by both sexes and seem to be related to bone production associated with age. Specifically, age appears to affect the entire border of the lunate surface: the acetabular rim, both acetabular horns, and the outer edge of the acetabular fossa. Furthermore, shape data confirmed the clover-leaf shape of the acetabular fossa in both males and females. These results improve our understanding of acetabular shape, and assist in refining age-estimation methods and enhancing hip surgery and rehabilitation.

  19. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana).

    PubMed

    Stansfield, Fiona J

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified.

  20. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana)

    PubMed Central

    Stansfield, Fiona J.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These ‘Age Reference Lines’ were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70–75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  1. Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area

    SciTech Connect

    Pittenger, D B

    1992-02-01

    The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.

  2. Accurate estimates of age at maturity from the growth trajectories of fishes and other ectotherms.

    PubMed

    Honsey, Andrew E; Staples, David F; Venturelli, Paul A

    2017-01-01

    Age at maturity (AAM) is a key life history trait that provides insight into ecology, evolution, and population dynamics. However, maturity data can be costly to collect or may not be available. Life history theory suggests that growth is biphasic for many organisms, with a change-point in growth occurring at maturity. If so, then it should be possible to use a biphasic growth model to estimate AAM from growth data. To test this prediction, we used the Lester biphasic growth model in a likelihood profiling framework to estimate AAM from length at age data. We fit our model to simulated growth trajectories to determine minimum data requirements (in terms of sample size, precision in length at age, and the cost to somatic growth of maturity) for accurate AAM estimates. We then applied our method to a large walleye Sander vitreus data set and show that our AAM estimates are in close agreement with conventional estimates when our model fits well. Finally, we highlight the potential of our method by applying it to length at age data for a variety of ectotherms. Our method shows promise as a tool for estimating AAM and other life history traits from contemporary and historical samples.

  3. Preliminary age, growth and maturity estimates of spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) in British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, J. R.; McPhie, R. P.

    2015-05-01

    The spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) is a chimaeroid ranging from southeast Alaska to Baja California and found at depths of up to 1029 m. Despite being widespread and ubiquitous, few biological parameter estimates exist for spotted ratfish due to a lack of suitable ageing structures to estimate age and growth. We present preliminary results of age, growth and maturity estimates based on a new method in which tritor ridges are counted on the vomerine tooth plate. We also provide a method for estimating the number of worn tritor ridges based on tooth plate diameter measurements for the spotted ratfish. The tritor ridges are distinct bumps that are easy to identify and precision estimates between readers suggests that this method is transferable. Tritor ridges are a potential structure for estimating age in H. colliei and we provide recommendations for future research to improve the method. We sampled 269 spotted ratfish captured in trawl surveys off the coast British Columbia ranging in size from 74 to 495 mm in precaudal length (PCL). The estimated ages ranged from 2 to 16 years for males and from 2 to 21 years for females. The von Bertalanffy, von Bertalanffy with known size at birth, Gompertz and logistic growth models were fitted to the data. Based on Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size and number of parameters estimated, the logistic growth curve was selected as most suitable. The logistic growth model yielded the following parameter estimates: Linf=407.22 mm (PCL), k=0.23 year-1, t0=-7.06 years for males; L∞=494.52 mm (PCL), k=0.26 year-1, t0=-8.35 years for females. Estimated ages at 50% maturity were 12 and 14 years for males and females, respectively. Correspondingly, the size at 50% maturity estimates was smaller for males (302 mm, PCL) than females (393 mm, PCL). Both estimates are larger than those made for spotted ratfish off of California indicating regional differences in life history traits for this species. Our preliminary

  4. Precision of hard structures used to estimate age of mountain Whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) is a widely distributed salmonid in western North America that has decreased in abundance over portions of its distribution due to anthropogenic disturbances. In this investigation, we examined precision of age estimates derived from scales, pectoral fin rays, and sagittal otoliths from 167 mountain whitefish. Otoliths and pectoral fin rays were mounted in epoxy and cross-sectioned before examination. Scales were pressed onto acetate slides and resulting impressions were examined. Between-reader precision (i.e., between 2 readers), between-reader variability, and reader confidence ratings were compared among hard structures. Coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and percentage of exact agreement (PA-0) was highest for scales (CV = 5.9; PA-0 = 70%) compared to pectoral fin rays (CV =11.0; PA-0 = 58%) and otoliths (CV = 12.3; PA-0 = 55%). Median confidence ratings were significantly different (P ≤ 0.05) among all structures, with scales having the highest median confidence. Reader confidence decreased with fish age for scales and pectoral fin rays, but reader confidence increased with fish age for otoliths. In general, age estimates were more precise and reader confidence was higher for scales compared to pectoral fin rays and otoliths. This research will help fisheries biologists in selecting the most appropriate hard structure to use for future age and growth studies on mountain whitefish. In turn, selection of the most precise hard structure will lead to better estimates of dynamic rate functions.

  5. Forensic dental age estimation by measuring root dentin translucency area using a new digital technique.

    PubMed

    Acharya, Ashith B

    2014-05-01

    Dentin translucency measurement is an easy yet relatively accurate approach to postmortem age estimation. Translucency area represents a two-dimensional change and may reflect age variations better than length. Manually measuring area is challenging and this paper proposes a new digital method using commercially available computer hardware and software. Area and length were measured on 100 tooth sections (age range, 19-82 years) of 250 μm thickness. Regression analysis revealed lower standard error of estimate and higher correlation with age for length than for area (R = 0.62 vs. 0.60). However, test of regression formulae on a control sample (n = 33, 21-85 years) showed smaller mean absolute difference (8.3 vs. 8.8 years) and greater frequency of smaller errors (73% vs. 67% age estimates ≤ ± 10 years) for area than for length. These suggest that digital area measurements of root translucency may be used as an alternative to length in forensic age estimation.

  6. Age- and sex-specific estimation of dose to a normal thyroid from clinical administration of iodine-131

    SciTech Connect

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-09-01

    This report describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to /sup 131/I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In most cases, the data available consisted of the patient's age at the time of administration, the patient's sex, the quantity of activity administered, the clinically determined uptake of radioiodine by the thyroid, and the time after administration at which the uptake was determined. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum at 24 hours after administration (the /sup 131/I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K x (exp(-..mu../sub 1/t) - exp(-..mu../sub 2/t)) ..mu..Ci where ..mu../sub i/ = lambda/sub r/ + lambda/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), lambda/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and the lambda/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal-rate coefficients. The values of lambda/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). An addendum (Appendix C) extends the method to other radioiodines and gives age- and sex-dependent dose conversion factors for most isotopes.

  7. Computed tomography evaluation of the iliac crest apophysis: age estimation in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Inci, Ercan; Erdil, Irem; Hocaoglu, Elif; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Kazimoglu, Cemal; Reisoglu, Ali; Can, Ismail Ozgur

    2016-07-01

    Determination of the ossification properties of the iliac apophysis is important not only in the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery but also in age estimation studies for forensic purposes. The literature includes both anthropological and radiological (conventional radiography, ultrasonography, and magnetic resonance imaging modalities) investigations of the different staging systems used for these purposes. In this study, we assessed the utility of computed tomography (CT) of the iliac crest apophysis in estimating forensic age. CT scans of the iliac crest apophysis of 380 patients (187 females, 193 males, and 10-29 years of age) were evaluated according to the four-stage system. Further subclassification did not give data properly due to the reference length measurement of the iliac wing with CT. Thus, in our series, stage 2 was first seen in 12 years of age and stage 3 in those 14 years of age in both sexes and on both sides of the pelvis. Stage 4 was first seen in 17 years of both sexes but only on the right side; on the left side, it appeared in females 18 years of age and in males 17 years of age. Present data was found consistent with previous pelvic radiographic findings. First seen ages for stage 2 and 3 are 12 and 14 years respectively which presented valuable information for legally important age thresholds. However, disadvantages of CT, including high-dose radiation exposure to gonads, the difficulty of evaluating the iliac crest, and the age boundary of 17 years, could make this method infeasible, as compared with hand wrist and pelvic radiographic methods. CT of the iliac crest has probably a greater utility where preexisting CT scans of the pelvic region are available, and it may be considered as a supportive method for age-estimation purposes.

  8. Near infrared spectroscopy for estimating the age of malaria transmiting mosquitoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milali, Masabho Peter

    We explore the use of near infrared spectrometry to classifying the age of a wild malaria transmitting mosquito. In Chapter Two, using a different set of lab-reared mosquitoes, we replicate the Mayagaya et al. study of the accuracy of near-infrared spectrometry (NIRS) to estimate the age of lab-reared mosquitoes, reproducing the published accuracy. Our results strengthen the Mayagaya et. al study and increase confidence in using NIRS to estimate age classes of mosquitoes. In the field, we wish to classify the ages of wild, not lab-reared mosquitoes, but the necessary training data from wild mosquitoes is difficult to find. Applying a model trained on spectra from lab-reared mosquitoes to estimate the age of wild mosquitoes is appropriate only if spectra collected from lab-reared mosquitoes are equivalent to those collected from wild mosquitoes. In Chapter Three, we apply k-means cluster analysis to a mixture of spectra collected from lab-reared and wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes to determine if there is significant difference between these spectra. We find no significant difference (P = 0.245) in distributions between the wild and lab-reared mosquitoes in the two formed clusters. The two formed clusters have average silhouette coefficient values (cluster quality measure) of 0.51 and 0.77, respectively, which shows that the clusters were reasonable and strong, respectively. Basing on results from Chapter Three, we estimate the age class of wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes using a classification model trained on lab-reared Anopheles arabiensis. We validate the accuracy of the model by comparing its estimates with ovary dissection estimates. While our model estimated 86% and 14% of wild Anopheles arabiensis to be < 7 and ≥ 7 days old, respectively, ovary dissection estimated 72% as young and 28% as old. Studies show that wild mosquito populations generally consist of more young than old mosquitoes. Therefore, our model estimates age of wild mosquitoes in

  9. Estimating age from the pubic symphysis: A new component-based system.

    PubMed

    Dudzik, Beatrix; Langley, Natalie R

    2015-12-01

    The os pubis is one of the most widely used areas of the skeleton for age estimation. Current pubic symphyseal aging methods for adults combine the morphology associated with the developmental changes that occur into the mid-30s with the degenerative changes that span the latter portion of the age spectrum. The most popular methods are phase-based; however, the definitions currently used to estimate age intervals may not be adequately defined and/or accurately understood by burgeoning researchers and seasoned practitioners alike. This study identifies patterns of growth and maturation in the pubic symphysis to derive more precise age estimates for individuals under 40 years of age. Emphasis is placed on young adults to provide more informative descriptions of epiphyseal changes associated with the final phases of skeletal maturation before degeneration commences. This study investigated macroscopic changes in forensically relevant modern U.S. samples of known age, sex, and ancestry from the Maricopa County Forensic Science Center in Phoenix, Arizona as well as donated individuals from the William M. Bass Forensic and Donated Collections at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (n=237). Age-related traits at locations with ontogenetic and biomechanical relevance were broken into components and scored. The components included the pubic tubercle, the superior apex of the face, the ventral and dorsal demifaces, and the ventral and dorsal symphyseal margins. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate the transition ages between the morphological states of each component. The categorical scores and transition analysis ages were subjected to multinomial logistic regression and decision tree analysis to derive accurate age interval estimates. Results of these analyses were used to construct a decision tree-style flow chart for practitioner use. High inter-rater agreement of the individual component traits (linear weighted kappa values ≥0.665 for all traits in the

  10. An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

    1976-01-01

    The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

  11. Age estimation in Indian children and adolescents in the NCR region of Haryana: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Swati; Mehendiratta, Monica; Rehani, Shweta; Kumra, Madhumani; Nagpal, Ruchi; Gupta, Ramakant

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is a preliminary step in the identification of an individual. It is a crucial and often most critical step for forensic experts. The assessment has been standardized utilizing common dental diagnostic x-rays, but most such age-estimating systems are European population-based and their applicability has not been determined in the context of the Indian population. Aims and Objectives: To assess the applicability and to compare the methods of dental age estimation by Demirjian's method and the same method as modified by Willems (i.e. the Willems method) in Indian children of the National Capital Region (NCR). Also, to find a correlation among skeletal maturity using the Cervical vertebrae maturation index (CVMI), dental maturity, and chronological age in the same population. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using dental radiographs of 70 orthodontic patients (37 males, 33 females) in the age range 9-16 years selected by simple random sampling. pantomogram were used to estimate dental age by Demirjian's method and the Willems method using their scoring tables. Lateral cephalograms were used to estimate skeletal maturity using CVMI. The latter was compared with Demirjian's stage for mandibular left second molar. Results: Overestimation of age among males by 0.856 years and 0.496 years was found by Demirjian's and the Willems methods, respectively. Among females, both the methods underestimated the age by 0.31 years and 0.45 years, respectively. Demirjian's stage G corresponded to CVMI stage 3 in males and stage 2 in females. Conclusion: In our study, the Willems method has proved to be more accurate for age estimation among Indian males, and Demirjian's method for Indian females. A statistically significant association appeared between Demirjian's stages and CVMI among both males and females. Our study recommends the derivation of a regression formula by studying a larger section of the Indian population

  12. Estimation of fetal age from dimensions of atlas and axis ossification centers.

    PubMed

    Castellana, C; Kósa, F

    2001-03-01

    The atlas and axis ossification centers of 106 human fetal and neonate skeletons were measured. The skeletons belong to the collection in the Department of Forensic Medicine of the Albert Szent-Györgyi Medical University, Szeged, Hungary. The age of the skeletons ranged from 4 to 10 lunar months. Nine linear measurements on the atlas, seven on the axis neural arches ossification centers and three on each one of the axis centra ossification centers were taken. We did simple and multiple linear regression analysis to estimate the age of fetuses. The results show that it is possible to use regression equations to estimate the fetal body length and age from atlas and axis ossification centers measurements during the whole period of development studied. The study of size and shape of the ossification centers using factorial analysis (principal component analysis) shows that the shape of the dens of the axis might be useful to estimate fetal viability.

  13. Semi-parametric estimation of age-time specific infection incidence from serial prevalence data.

    PubMed

    Nagelkerke, N; Heisterkamp, S; Borgdorff, M; Broekmans, J; Van Houwelingen, H

    1999-02-15

    Many infections cause lasting detectable immune responses, whose prevalence can be estimated from cross-sectional surveys. However, such surveys do not provide direct information on the incidence of infection. We address the issue of estimating age and time specific incidence from a series of prevalence surveys under the assumption that incidence changes exponentially with time, but make no assumption about the age specific incidence. We show that these assumptions lead to a proportional hazards model and estimate its parameters using semi-parametric maximum likelihood methods. The method is applied to tuberculin surveys in The Netherlands to explore age dependence of the risk of tuberculous infection in the presence of a strong secular decline in this risk.

  14. A Comparison of Item Parameter Standard Error Estimation Procedures for Unidimensional and Multidimensional Item Response Theory Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paek, Insu; Cai, Li

    2014-01-01

    The present study was motivated by the recognition that standard errors (SEs) of item response theory (IRT) model parameters are often of immediate interest to practitioners and that there is currently a lack of comparative research on different SE (or error variance-covariance matrix) estimation procedures. The present study investigated item…

  15. Improved Estimation Procedures for Item Response Functions. Final Report on Project NR150-464. Research Report 84-2.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsutakawa, Robert K.

    This report describes new statistical procedures for item response analysis using estimation of item response curves used in mental testing with ability parameters treated as a random sample. Modern computer technology and the EM algorithm make this solution possible. The research focused on the theoretical formulation and solution of maximum…

  16. Reliability of age estimation from iliac auricular surface in a subactual Chilean sample.

    PubMed

    Herrera, María José; Retamal, Rodrigo

    2017-02-14

    The aim of this study was to test the reliability of Osborne et al. (2004) [8] age estimation based on the iliac auricular surface of the ilium. We selected 172 skeletons with documented sex and age-at-death and established six uniformly distributed age intervals for analysis. ANOVA was employed to assess the association of the documented age with sex and the auricular surface classification. We employed Bonferroni post-hoc tests to find any statistical differences across documented ages within each phase of Osborne's criteria. While the ANOVA showed a significant association between the documented age and the auricular surface classification, post-hoc tests found that phases 2 and 3 were the only consecutive phases with significant differences. We argue that a lack of statistical significance between consecutive phases undermines the reliability of this method for forensic purposes especially in middle adults. It may be possible that the collapse of intermediate phases would increase the accuracy of this method.

  17. Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

    2003-01-01

    Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

  18. The circles of life: age at death estimation in burnt teeth through tooth cementum annulations.

    PubMed

    Oliveira-Santos, Inês; Gouveia, Márcia; Cunha, Eugénia; Gonçalves, David

    2017-03-01

    Age at death estimation in burnt human remains is problematic due to the severe heat-induced modifications that may affect the skeleton after a burning event. The objective of this paper was to assess if cementochronology, which focuses on the cementum incremental lines, is a reliable method of age estimation in burnt remains. Besides the classical approach based on the counting of incremental lines, another approach based on the extrapolation of incremental lines taking into account the cement layer thickness and the incremental line thickness was investigated. A comparison of the performance of the two techniques was carried out on a sample of 60 identified monoradicular teeth that were recently extracted at dentist offices and then experimentally burnt at two maximum temperatures (400 and 900 °C). Micrographs of cross-sections of the roots were taken via an optical microscope with magnification of ×100, ×200 and ×400. Incremental line counting and measurements were carried out with the ImageJ software. Age estimation based on incremental line counting in burnt teeth had no significant correlation with chronological age (p = 0.244 to 0.914) and led to large absolute mean errors (19 to 21 years). In contrast, age estimation based on the extrapolation approach showed a significant correlation with known age (p = 0.449 to 0.484). In addition, the mean absolute error of the latter was much smaller (10 to 14 years). The reason behind this discrepancy is the heat-induced dimensional changes of incremental lines that affect their visibility and individualization thus complicating line counting. Our results indicated that incremental lines extrapolation is successful at solving this problem and that the resulting age estimation is much more reliable.

  19. Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.

    1988-01-01

    It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

  20. A proposed method to estimate premorbid full scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) for the Canadian Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) using demographic and combined estimation procedures.

    PubMed

    Schoenberg, Mike R; Lange, Rael T; Saklofske, Donald H

    2007-11-01

    Establishing a comparison standard in neuropsychological assessment is crucial to determining change in function. There is no available method to estimate premorbid intellectual functioning for the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV). The WISC-IV provided normative data for both American and Canadian children aged 6 to 16 years old. This study developed regression algorithms as a proposed method to estimate full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) for the Canadian WISC-IV. Participants were the Canadian WISC-IV standardization sample (n = 1,100). The sample was randomly divided into two groups (development and validation groups). The development group was used to generate regression algorithms; 1 algorithm only included demographics, and 11 combined demographic variables with WISC-IV subtest raw scores. The algorithms accounted for 18% to 70% of the variance in FSIQ (standard error of estimate, SEE = 8.6 to 14.2). Estimated FSIQ significantly correlated with actual FSIQ (r = .30 to .80), and the majority of individual FSIQ estimates were within +/-10 points of actual FSIQ. The demographic-only algorithm was less accurate than algorithms combining demographic variables with subtest raw scores. The current algorithms yielded accurate estimates of current FSIQ for Canadian individuals aged 6-16 years old. The potential application of the algorithms to estimate premorbid FSIQ is reviewed. While promising, clinical validation of the algorithms in a sample of children and/or adolescents with known neurological dysfunction is needed to establish these algorithms as a premorbid estimation procedure.

  1. A procedure for the estimation of the numerical uncertainty of CFD calculations based on grid refinement studies

    SciTech Connect

    Eça, L.; Hoekstra, M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper offers a procedure for the estimation of the numerical uncertainty of any integral or local flow quantity as a result of a fluid flow computation; the procedure requires solutions on systematically refined grids. The error is estimated with power series expansions as a function of the typical cell size. These expansions, of which four types are used, are fitted to the data in the least-squares sense. The selection of the best error estimate is based on the standard deviation of the fits. The error estimate is converted into an uncertainty with a safety factor that depends on the observed order of grid convergence and on the standard deviation of the fit. For well-behaved data sets, i.e. monotonic convergence with the expected observed order of grid convergence and no scatter in the data, the method reduces to the well known Grid Convergence Index. Examples of application of the procedure are included. - Highlights: • Estimation of the numerical uncertainty of any integral or local flow quantity. • Least squares fits to power series expansions to handle noisy data. • Excellent results obtained for manufactured solutions. • Consistent results obtained for practical CFD calculations. • Reduces to the well known Grid Convergence Index for well-behaved data sets.

  2. The study on telomere length for age estimation in a Thai population.

    PubMed

    Srettabunjong, Supawon; Satitsri, Saravut; Thongnoppakhun, Wanna; Tirawanchai, Nednapis

    2014-06-01

    Age is one of the key parameters in establishing a physical characteristic profile of an individual. For biological evidence left in crime scenes such as blood, saliva, hair, etc, the evidence owner's age can be determined only by DNA extracted from these materials. Previous researches have found that there are certain DNA regions with specialized characteristic and function called telomere being able to predict age. The present study was to determine the correlation between telomere length and age as well as the effect of sex on the correlation and to create linear regression equation for age estimation in Thai population for forensic purposes. Blood samples obtained from unrelated healthy Thai fresh cadavers without anatomical organ abnormalities were used in this study. All cadaver subjects underwent the postmortem examination in jurisdiction of the Department of Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, and Institute of Forensic Medicine, Police General Hospital. Fifty blood samples from both sexes of all ages divided into 6 groups for equal age distribution (0-11, 12-23, 24-35, 36-47, 48-59, and 60 years old and older) were collected for a total of 100 samples. The extracted genomic DNA samples were then subjected to telomere length estimation by terminal restriction fragment (TRF) assay. The results showed that the mean TRF length was inversely correlated with age (r = -0.625), and sex did not have a statistically significant influence on the association between age and mean TRF length (P > 0.05). The obtained linear regression equation was y = 113.538 ± 9.604 - 0.012 × (R = 0.391; P < 0.001). However, the correlation was too low to be used for age estimation with high certainty and a possible reason for this in part would be the postmortem DNA degradation at some level, even using fresh cadaver blood, and other biological factors such as ethnicity and DNA sources. Roughly, those individuals who had a mean TRF length

  3. Technical note: The two step procedure (TSP) for the determination of age at death of adult human remains in forensic cases.

    PubMed

    Baccino, Eric; Sinfield, Laura; Colomb, Sophie; Baum, Thierry Pascal; Martrille, Laurent

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents the principles and results of TSP (the two step procedure), a comprehensive (combined) method of age estimation in mature human skeletal remains. The first step consists of the examination of the pubic symphysis using the Suchey-Brooks system for a "pre-choice". Then for SBS phases I, II, III, (young adults up to about 40) the age estimate is given using the chronological interval corresponding to each phase. For SBS phase is IV, V or VI (mature adults, about 40 to 60), then (second step) the dental method of Lamendin (using single rooted tooth) will be applied alone. Both methods are fast, easy to learn and to use (requiring no preparation except cleaning soft tissues from the pubic bone) and are not expensive, making TSP usable by all pathologists or anthropologists in any Forensic unit. It is also of great practical use in mass disaster and mass grave situation. After 15 years of use, a literature review and four evaluation studies we confirm that TSP is more accurate than any single method for aging adults and at least as good as more complicated combined methods. Despite its advantages TSP is, like all other aging methods, not efficient in adults over 65 years of age.

  4. Histological estimation of age at death from the compact bone of burned and unburned human ribs.

    PubMed

    Absolonova, Karolina; Veleminsky, Petr; Dobisikova, Miluse; Beran, Michal; Zocova, Jarmila

    2013-01-01

    This study describes the estimation of age at death from the compact bone of burned and unburned human ribs. Bone samples came from individuals of known age, sex, and cause of death. Each bone was divided into four sections; three sections were burned at 700, 800, and 1000°C. Undecalcified, unstained ground cross sections were photographed, and 28 variables were analyzed in the bones using SigmaScan Pro 5. Age-related as well as heat-induced microstructural changes were found. These changes were often very similar and made estimating the age at death difficult in the burned bones. Differences between the sexes were found in some variables, caused by both aging and also by the different behavior of some variables during burning. Regression equations were developed to estimate age at death for unburned bones (r² = 0.579 and 0.707), bones burned at 700°C (r² = 0.453 and 0.501), and 800°C (r² = 0.334 and 0.340).

  5. Age-at-maturity estimates for Atlantic coast female striped bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berlinsky, David L.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; O'Brien, John F.; Specker, Jennifer L.

    1995-01-01

    This study was undertaken to estimate the percentage of mature female striped bass Morone saxatilis present in each age-class during annual coastal feeding migration. Migratory striped bass (N = 302) were sampled in coastal Rhode Island waters during spring (May-June) and fall (September-November) from 1985 to 1987. Stocks were identified by analysis of morphometric characters and isoelectric focusing of eye-lens proteins. Histological sections of ovarian tissue were used to categorize maturity state. Fish were considered mature if a class of oocytes measuring at least 150 μm and containing cytoplasmic inclusions was found in the ovarian sections. All females whose age at next potential spawning was 7 and older were mature. Our empirical observations indicated that 12% of fish in age-class 4, 34% of fish in age-class 5, and 77% of fish in age-class 6 were mature. The estimate of the proportion of mature fish in age-class 5 differs significantly from that of Merriman (1941), who also examined coastal migrants. No significant differences were found in maturity estimates of fish from stocks of different origin.

  6. Very Simple Structure: An Alternative Procedure for Estimating the Optimal Number of Interpretable Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Revelle, William; Rocklin, Thomas

    1979-01-01

    A new procedure for determining the optimal number of interpretable factors to extract from a correlation matrix is introduced and compared to more conventional procedures. The new method evaluates the magnitude of the very simple structure index of goodness of fit for factor solutions of increasing rank. (Author/CTM)

  7. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  8. Improving estimates of surface water radiocarbon reservoir ages in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenop, Rosanna; Burke, Andrea; Rae, James; Austin, William; Reimer, Paula; Blaauw, Maarten; Crocker, Anya; Chalk, Thomas; Barker, Stephen; Knutz, Paul; Hall, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Radiocarbon measurements from foraminifera in marine sediment cores are widely used to constrain age models and the timing of paleoceanographic events, as well as past changes in ocean circulation and carbon cycling. However, the use of radiocarbon for both dating and palaeoceanographic applications is limited in sediment cores by a lack of knowledge about the surface ocean radiocarbon reservoir age and how it varies in both space and time. Typically, to convert a planktic radiocarbon age into a calendar age, an assumed constant reservoir age is applied. However, there is mounting evidence to suggest that this assumption of constant reservoir age through time is an oversimplification, particularly for the high latitude oceans during the cold climates of the last glacial and deglacial periods. Here we present new high-resolution radiocarbon records together with tephra tie points and 230-thorium (230Th) constrained sedimentation rates to improve estimates of radiocarbon reservoir age in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. In addition we will explore the impact of the new reservoir ages for both the age models of the cores studied, as well as the palaeoceanographic implications of these reservoir age changes during intervals of rapid climate change over the past 40,000 years.

  9. A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the

  10. A New Approach For Reducing The Uncertainty In Radar Rainfall Estimation Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chumchean, S.; Sharma, A.

    The weather radar provides a convenient means for measuring rainfall in space and time. However, its use as a rainfall measuring device is limited due to the poor accu- racy of algorithms used to convert the measured reflectivity to ground rainfall. While this accuracy can be acceptable in situations where the catchment is large and ground measurements few, the use of radar based rainfall observations can lead to signifi- cant errors in small catchments located far from the radar site. This study aims to identify some of the reasons behind the limited accuracy of radar rainfall estimation algorithms, and proposes a method that addresses some of the factors responsible. The accuracy of weather radars is effected by a number of factors, not all of which are considered in the algorithms used. Some of these are: (a) mis-specification of the relationship between reflectivity and rainfall through the use of an improperly speci- fied equation, (b) nonstationarity in measured reflectivity values due to changes in the rainfall drop size distribution, (c) an inability to convert the reflectivity measured at an elevation above ground to the rainfall at ground level, and, (d) a reduction in the reli- ability associated with measured reflectivity with increase in distance from the radar, a result of the radar emitted power being shared over an increasing volume of air. The above factors can be addressed by either formulating a relationship that is stable and consistent, or using a quantile matching approach called the Probability Matching Method (PMM) which is helpful when the relationship is difficult to specify. How- ever, for either method to be useful, the measured reflectivity must be stationary, or, must bear the same relation with rainfall irrespective of factors such as changes in storm type or distance from the radar. Another cause of nonstationarity in the mea- sured reflectivity values is use of measurements that vary in accuracy depending on their distance from the

  11. A Test of the Passalacqua Age at Death Estimation Method Using the Sacrum.

    PubMed

    Colarusso, Tara

    2016-01-01

    A test of the accuracy of the Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) sacrum method in a forensic context was performed on a sample of 153 individuals from the J.C.B. Grant Skeletal Collection. The Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) method assesses seven traits of the sacrum using a 7-digit coding system. An accuracy of 97.3% was achieved using the Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) method to estimate adult skeletal age. On average each age estimate differed by 12.87 years from the known age. The method underestimated the age of individuals by an average of 4.3 years. An intra-observer error of 6.6% suggests that the method can be performed with precision. Correlation and regression analysis found that the sacral traits used in the Passalacqua (J Forensic Sci, 5, 2009, 255) method did not have a strong relationship with age or an ability to strongly predict age. Overall, the method was not practical for use in a forensic context due to the broad age ranges, despite the high accuracy and low intra-observer error.

  12. Effect of a water-maze procedure on the redox mechanisms in brain parts of aged rats

    PubMed Central

    Krivova, Natalia A.; Zaeva, Olga B.; Grigorieva, Valery A.

    2015-01-01

    The Morris water maze (MWM) is a tool for assessment of age-related modulations spatial learning and memory in laboratory rats. In our work was investigated the age-related decline of MWM performance in 11-month-old rats and the effect exerted by training in the MWM on the redox mechanisms in rat brain parts. Young adult (3-month-old) and aged (11-month-old) male rats were trained in the MWM. Intact animals of the corresponding age were used as the reference groups. The level of pro- and antioxidant capacity in brain tissue homogenates was assessed using the chemiluminescence method. A reduced performance in the MWM test was found in 11-month-old rats: at the first day of training they showed only 30% of successful MWM trials. However, at the last training day the percentage of successful trials was equal for young adult and aged animals. This indicates that the aged 11-month-old rats can successfully learn in MWM. Therewith, the MWM spatial learning procedure itself produces changes in different processes of redox homeostasis in 11-month-old and 3-month-old rats as compared to intact animals. Young adult rats showed a decrease in prooxidant capacity in all brain parts, while 11-month-old rats demonstrated an increase in antioxidant capacity in the olfactory bulb, pons + medulla oblongata and frontal lobe cortex. Hence, the MWM procedure activates the mechanisms that restrict the oxidative stress in brain parts. The obtained results may be an argument for further development of the animal training procedures aimed to activate the mechanisms that can prevent the age-related deterioration of performance in the learning test. This may be useful not only for the development of training procedures applicable to human patients with age-related cognitive impairments, but also for their rehabilitation. PMID:25814952

  13. Estimating Black Carbon Aging Time-Scales with a Particle-Resolved Aerosol Model

    SciTech Connect

    Riemer, Nicole; West, Matt; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Easter, Richard C.

    2010-01-13

    Understanding the aging process of aerosol particles is important for assessing their chemical reactivity, cloud condensation nuclei activity, radiative properties and health impacts. In this study we investigate the aging of black carbon containing particles in an idealized urban plume using a new approach, the particleresolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. We present a method to estimate aging time-scales using an aging criterion based on cloud condensation nuclei activation. The results show a separation into a daytime regime where condensation dominates and a nighttime regime where coagulation dominates. For the chosen urban plume scenario, depending on the supersaturation threshold, the values for the aging timescales vary between 0.06 hours and 10 hours during the day, and between 6 hours and 20 hours during the night.

  14. Age-Related Changes in Children's Executive Functions and Strategy Selection: A Study in Computational Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lemaire, Patrick; Lecacheur, Mireille

    2011-01-01

    Third, fifth, and seventh graders selected the best strategy (rounding up or rounding down) for estimating answers to two-digit addition problems. Executive function measures were collected for each individual. Data showed that (a) children's skill at both strategy selection and execution improved with age and (b) increased efficiency in executive…

  15. Age at Marriage as a Mobility Contingency: Estimates for the Nye-Berardo Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Call, Vaughn R. A.; Otto, Luther B.

    1977-01-01

    This study provides estimates for the Nye and Berardo model of the effect of age at marriage on socioeconomic attainments. The major findings are that marital timing has neither a total effect on educational and occupational attainments, nor does it mediate the total effects of family socioeconomic statuses. (Author)

  16. Statistical Design and Estimation for the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project

    PubMed Central

    Eckman, Stephanie; Smith, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Objectives The paper discusses the sample design of the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP) and how the design affects how estimates should be calculated from the survey data. The NSHAP study allows researchers to study the links between sexuality and health in older adults. The goal of the design was to represent adults aged 57–85 years in six demographic domains. Methods The sample design begins with a national area probability sample of households, carried out jointly with the 2004 round of the Health and Retirement Study. Selection of respondents for NSHAP balanced age and gender subgroups and oversampled African Americans and Latinos. Data collection was carried out from July 2005 to March 2006. Results The survey obtained an overall response rate of 75.5%. Discussion The complex sample design requires that the selection probabilities and the field implementation be accounted for in estimating population parameters. The data set contains weights to compensate for differential probabilities of selection and response rates among demographic groups. Analysts should use weights in constructing estimates from the survey and account for the complex sample design in estimating standard errors for survey estimates. PMID:19567827

  17. A MATLAB toolbox for the efficient estimation of the psychometric function using the updated maximum-likelihood adaptive procedure.

    PubMed

    Shen, Yi; Dai, Wei; Richards, Virginia M

    2015-03-01

    A MATLAB toolbox for the efficient estimation of the threshold, slope, and lapse rate of the psychometric function is described. The toolbox enables the efficient implementation of the updated maximum-likelihood (UML) procedure. The toolbox uses an object-oriented architecture for organizing the experimental variables and computational algorithms, which provides experimenters with flexibility in experimental design and data management. Descriptions of the UML procedure and the UML Toolbox are provided, followed by toolbox use examples. Finally, guidelines and recommendations of parameter configurations are given.

  18. Variation in osteon histomorphometrics and their impact on age-at-death estimation in older individuals.

    PubMed

    Goliath, Jesse R; Stewart, Marissa C; Stout, Sam D

    2016-05-01

    Histomorphometric studies have reported relations between osteon size and age; however, data focused on the shape of osteons is sparse. The purpose of this study was to determine how osteon circularity (On.Cr) varies with age in different skeletal elements. Regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between age and osteon shape and size. We hypothesized that age would be negatively related to osteon size (area, On.Ar) and positively related to osteon shape (On.Cr). On.Cr and On.Ar were determined for the ribs and femora of 27 cadaveric specimens with known age-at-death. As predicted, age was significantly related to osteon size and shape for both the femur and rib. With age, there was a decrease in size and an increase in circularity. No relationship between sex and On.Cr was detected. An age predicting model, including On.Cr, On.Ar and OPD, is proposed to improve our ability to estimate age-at-death, especially for older individuals.

  19. 40 CFR Appendix Ix to Part 86 - Experimentally Determining the R-Factor for Bench Aging Durability Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... the R-Factor for Bench Aging Durability Procedures The R-Factor is the catalyst thermal reactivity... several catalysts (minimum of 3 of the same catalyst design) at different control temperatures between the normal operating temperature and the damage limit temperature. Measure emissions (or...

  20. 40 CFR Appendix Ix to Part 86 - Experimentally Determining the R-Factor for Bench Aging Durability Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... the R-Factor for Bench Aging Durability Procedures The R-Factor is the catalyst thermal reactivity... several catalysts (minimum of 3 of the same catalyst design) at different control temperatures between the normal operating temperature and the damage limit temperature. Measure emissions (or...

  1. 40 CFR Appendix Ix to Part 86 - Experimentally Determining the R-Factor for Bench Aging Durability Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...-Factor for Bench Aging Durability Procedures The R-Factor is the catalyst thermal reactivity coefficient... several catalysts (minimum of 3 of the same catalyst design) at different control temperatures between the normal operating temperature and the damage limit temperature. Measure emissions (or...

  2. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Importance A simple, reliable anthropometric tool for rapid estimation of weight in children would be useful in limited-resource settings where current weight estimation tools are not uniformly reliable, nearly all global under-five mortality occurs, severe acute malnutrition is a significant contributor in approximately one-third of under-five mortality, and a weight scale may not be immediately available in emergencies to first-response providers. Objective To determine the accuracy and precision of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and height as weight estimation tools in children under five years of age in low-to-middle income countries. Design This was a retrospective observational study. Data were collected in 560 nutritional surveys during 1992–2006 using a modified Expanded Program of Immunization two-stage cluster sample design. Setting Locations with high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition. Participants A total of 453,990 children met inclusion criteria (age 6–59 months; weight ≤ 25 kg; MUAC 80–200 mm) and exclusion criteria (bilateral pitting edema; biologically implausible weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) values). Exposures Weight was estimated using Broselow Tape, Hong Kong formula, and database MUAC alone, height alone, and height and MUAC combined. Main Outcomes and Measures Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight, proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% and ± 10% of true weight, weighted Kappa statistic, and Bland-Altman bias were reported as measures of tool accuracy. Standard deviation of mean percentage difference and Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement were reported as measures of tool precision. Results Database height was a more accurate and precise predictor of weight compared to Broselow Tape 2007 [B], Broselow Tape 2011 [A], and MUAC. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight was +0.49% (SD = 10

  3. Twins and the paradox of dental-age estimations: a caution for researchers and clinicians.

    PubMed

    Pechníková, M; De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Vecchio, V; Cameriere, R; Zeqiri, B; Cattaneo, C

    2014-08-01

    The biological age difference among twins is frequently an issue in studies of genetic influence on various dental features, particularly dental development. The timing of dental development is a crucial issue also for many clinicians and researchers. The aim of this study was therefore to verify within groups of twins how dental development differs, by applying Demirjian's method, Mincer's charts of development of third molars and two of Cameriere's methods for dental age estimation, which are among the most popular methods both in the clinical and the forensic scenario. The sample consisted of 64 twin pairs: 21 monozygotic, 30 dizygotic same-sex and 13 dizygotic opposite-sex with an age range between 5.8 and 22.6 years. Dental age was determined from radiographs using the mentioned methods. Results showed that dental age of monozygotic twins is not identical even if they share all their genes. The mean intra-pair difference of monozygotic pairs was low and similar to the difference in dizygotic same-sex twins; the maximum difference between monozygotic twins, however, was surprisingly large (nearly two years). This should lead to some circumspection in the interpretation of systematic estimations of dental age both in the clinical and forensic scenario.

  4. Age estimation from stages of epiphyseal union in the presacral vertebrae.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V; Ríos, Luis

    2011-02-01

    The presacral vertebrae have various secondary centers of ossification, whose timing of fusion can be used for age estimation of human skeletal remains up to the middle to the latter third decade. However, detailed information about the age at which these secondary centers of ossification fuse has been lacking. In this study, the timing of epiphyseal union in presacral vertebrae was studied in a sample of modern Portuguese skeletons (57 females and 47 males) between the ages of 9 and 30, taken from the Lisbon documented skeletal collection. A detailed photographic record of these epiphyses and the age ranges for the different stages of epiphyseal union are provided. Partial union of epiphyses was observed from 11 to 27 years of age. In general, centers of ossification begin to fuse first in the cervical and lumbar vertebrae, followed by centers of ossification in the thoracic region. The first center of ossification to complete fusion is usually that of the mammillary process in lumbar vertebrae. This is usually followed by that of the transverse process, spinous transverse process, and annular ring, regardless of vertebra type. There were no statistically significant sex differences in timing of fusion, but there was a trend toward early maturation in females for some vertebra or epiphyses. Bilateral epiphyses did not show statistically significant differences in timing of fusion. This study offers information on timing of fusion of diverse epiphyseal locations useful for age estimation of complete or fragmented human skeletal remains.

  5. Improved 3D Look-Locker Acquisition Scheme and Angle Map Filtering Procedure for T1 Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Hui, CheukKai; Esparza-Coss, Emilio; Narayana, Ponnada A

    2013-01-01

    The 3D Look-Locker (LL) acquisition is a widely used fast and efficient T1 mapping method. However, the multi-shot approach of 3D LL acquisition can introduce reconstruction artifacts that result in intensity distortions. Traditional 3D LL acquisition generally utilizes centric encoding scheme that is limited to a single phase encoding direction in the k-space. To optimize the k-space segmentation, an elliptical scheme with two phase encoding directions is implemented for the LL acquisition. This elliptical segmentation can reduce the intensity errors in the reconstructed images and improve the final T1 estimation. One of the major sources of error in LL based T1 estimation is lack of accurate knowledge of the actual flip angle. Multi-parameter curve fitting procedure can account for some of the variability in the flip angle. However, curve fitting can also introduce errors in the estimated flip angle that can result in incorrect T1 values. A filtering procedure based on goodness of fit (GOF) is proposed to reduce the effect of false flip angle estimates. Filtering based on the GOF weighting can remove likely incorrect angles that result in bad curve fit. Simulation, phantom, and in-vivo studies have demonstrated that these techniques can improve the accuracy of 3D LL T1 estimation. PMID:23784967

  6. Assessment of a calibration procedure to estimate soil water content with Sentek Diviner 2000 capacitance probe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rallo, G.; Giordano, G.; Provenzano, G.

    2012-04-01

    In irrigated systems, soil water content is a major factor determining plant growth. Irrigation scheduling criteria are often related to measurements of soil water content or matric potential. Strategies to manage irrigation can be used to optimize irrigation water use or to maximize crop yield and/or quality, in order to increase the net return for the farmer. Of course, whatever criterion is adopted to schedule irrigation and in particular when crop water stress conditions are considered, the accurate monitoring of the water content in the soil profile, could allow to verify the exact irrigation timing, defined according to the crop response to water stress. Currently many methods are available for determining soil water content on a volume basis (m3m-3) or a tension basis (MPa), as described by Robinson (2008). Recently, distributed fiber optic temperature measurement, has been assessed as a new technique for indirect and precise estimation of soil water contents. Over the past decade Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) probes, allowing to measure the apparent dielectric constant of the soil (K), indirectly related to the volumetric water content (θv), have been improved, due to the good potentiality of capacitance based sensors to in situ measurements of soil water content. However, due to the high variability of K with soil minerals and dry plants tissues, it necessary to proceed to a specific calibration of the sensor for each soil (Baumhardt et al., 2000), even to take into account the effect of soil temperature, bulk density and water salinity (Al Ain et al., 2009). . According to Paltineanu and Starr (1997), the precision of the calibration equation, obtained with in situ measurements, mainly depends on the errors related to the sampling of the soil volume investigated by the sensor, that must be done accurately. For swelling/shrinking soils, the changes of soil bulk volume with water content cause modifications in the geometry of some if not all the

  7. Estimation of uncertainties in geological 3D raster layer models as integral part of modelling procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maljers, Denise; den Dulk, Maryke; ten Veen, Johan; Hummelman, Jan; Gunnink, Jan; van Gessel, Serge

    2016-04-01

    The Geological Survey of the Netherlands (GSN) develops and maintains subsurface models with regional to national coverage. These models are paramount for petroleum exploration in conventional reservoirs, for understanding the distribution of unconventional reservoirs, for mapping geothermal aquifers, for the potential to store carbon, or for groundwater- or aggregate resources. Depending on the application domain these models differ in depth range, scale, data used, modelling software and modelling technique. Depth uncertainty information is available for the Geological Survey's 3D raster layer models DGM Deep and DGM Shallow. These models cover different depth intervals and are constructed using different data types and different modelling software. Quantifying the uncertainty of geological models that are constructed using multiple data types as well as geological expert-knowledge is not straightforward. Examples of geological expert-knowledge are trend surfaces displaying the regional thickness trends of basin fills or steering points that are used to guide the pinching out of geological formations or the modelling of the complex stratal geometries associated with saltdomes and saltridges. This added a-priori knowledge, combined with the assumptions underlying kriging (normality and second-order stationarity), makes the kriging standard error an incorrect measure of uncertainty for our geological models. Therefore the methods described below were developed. For the DGM Deep model a workflow has been developed to assess uncertainty by combining precision (giving information on the reproducibility of the model results) and accuracy (reflecting the proximity of estimates to the true value). This was achieved by centering the resulting standard deviations around well-tied depths surfaces. The standard deviations are subsequently modified by three other possible error sources: data error, structural complexity and velocity model error. The uncertainty workflow

  8. A Joint Maximum Likelihood Estimation Procedure for the Hyperbolic Cosine Model for Single-Stimulus Responses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luo, Guanzhong

    2000-01-01

    Extends joint maximum likelihood estimation for the hyperbolic cosine model to the situation in which the units of items are allowed to vary. Describes the four estimation cycles designed to address four important issues of model development and presents results from two sets of simulation studies that show reasonably accurate parameter recovery…

  9. Effects of Training on Rating Reliability, as Estimated by ANOVA Procedures, for Fluency Tests of Creativity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Cynthia L.

    Each test in the Divergent Production battery requires the examinee to produce a response. Since these responses must be evaluated, the factor of rater judgment influences the reliability of scores. The problem of scoring reliability is one which pervades the literature on creativity research, where either low estimates or no estimates have been…

  10. Applicability of Willems model for dental age estimations in Brazilian children.

    PubMed

    Franco, Ademir; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Souza, Paulo Henrique Couto; Willems, Guy

    2013-09-10

    Several studies described tooth development as a reliable pathway for age estimations. Depending on the considered life span, the dental age indicators vary. In children, combinations of developing teeth provide the best information about age. In sub adults third molar mineralization is almost exclusively considered. The aim of this study was, firstly, to verify the Willems model in a Brazilian sample. Secondly, to observe differences between the Willems model and a new developed Brazilian model. Thirdly, the information of permanent teeth (PM) and third molar (TM), development was combined for age estimation in children. A sample of 1357 panoramic radiographs of Brazilian males (M) and females (F), with age between 5 and 23 years was collected. The technique of Gleiser and Hunt modified by Kohler (1955) [34] was applied for third molar staging in the entire sample. The Demirjian staging technique was used on the mandibular left permanent teeth (except third molars) of all individuals from 5 to 15 years. Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics were performed to verify inter- and intra-observer reliabilities. Based on the obtained Demirjian scores the Willems model was verified. Next the data were split to develop a new Brazilian model based on the Willems method and to verify the established model. The accuracy in age prediction between the Willems model and the new Brazilian model was compared. Additionally, regression models including PM, TM and PM plus TM information were compared. The Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics revealed high agreement between observers (0.88 Kappa; 0.93 weighted Kappa). The differences between predicted and chronological age for the verified Willems model were expressed in mean errors of -0.17 and -0.38 year for F and M respectively. The differences in mean error between the new developed Brazilian model and the Willems model were 0.02 (F) and 0.20 (M) year. The regression models combining PT and TM information provided only in the age

  11. Chest-wall thickness and percent thoracic fat estimation by B-mode ultrasound: system and procedure review

    SciTech Connect

    Berger, C.D.; Lane, B.H.; Dunsmore, M.R.

    1983-02-01

    Accurate measurement of chest wall thickness is necessary for estimation of lung burden of transuranic elements in humans. To achieve tis capability, the ORNL Whole Body Counter has acquired a B-mode ultrasonic imaging system for defining the structure within the thorax of the body. This report contains a review of the ultrasound system in use at the ORNL Whole Body Counter, including its theory of operation, and te procedure for use of the system. Future developmental plans are also presented.

  12. Age estimation methods using anthropological parameters on human teeth-(A0736).

    PubMed

    Brkic, H; Milicevic, M; Petrovecki, M

    2006-10-16

    The research was conducted on the 160 intact extracted human teeth with one and two roots of the known age and sex. The teeth were disinfected, dried and X-rayed. After that the section of the longitudinal cut through the teeth was performed in order to facilitate monitoring of all tissues and morphological characteristics of the teeth. The age was determined in three ways: Method 1 [G.Bang, E. Ramm, Determination of age in humans from root dentin transparency, Acta Odontol. Scand. 28 (1970) 3-35]--analysis of the translucency of the root dentine, Method 2 [S. Kvaal, T. Solheim, A non-destructive dental method for age estimation, J. Forensic Odonto-stomatol. 12 (1994) 6-11]--analysis of the root and the root canal from the X-ray, Method 3 [G. Johanson, Age determination from human teeth, Odontol. Revy. 22 (1971) 1-126]--analysis of six parameters on each teeth. All data were subject to the correlation and regression analysis which showed the following: all of the three applied methods were in the significant correlation with the real age, and the best of them proved to be Method 3 where the coefficient of correlation was 0.85, p<0.001. The teeth of the maxilla are more convenient for the age determination than the teeth of mandible. They are in the significant strong correlation with the known real age, and in Method 3, the coefficient of correlation is 0.78, p<0.001. Age determination of the teeth with two roots is in significant correlation with the known real age p<0.001 in relation to the determined age on the teeth with one root. The results show that sex too, is in significant correlation with the real age, p<0.001. In practice, the methods used and the results achieved in this research have been enabling the dental age estimation of human remains from mass graves after the 1991 war in Croatia.

  13. Estimating Allele Age and Selection Coefficient from Time-Serial Data

    PubMed Central

    Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Malaspinas, Orestis; Evans, Steven N.; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in sequencing technologies have made available an ever-increasing amount of ancient genomic data. In particular, it is now possible to target specific single nucleotide polymorphisms in several samples at different time points. Such time-series data are also available in the context of experimental or viral evolution. Time-series data should allow for a more precise inference of population genetic parameters and to test hypotheses about the recent action of natural selection. In this manuscript, we develop a likelihood method to jointly estimate the selection coefficient and the age of an allele from time-serial data. Our method can be used for allele frequencies sampled from a single diallelic locus. The transition probabilities are calculated by approximating the standard diffusion equation of the Wright–Fisher model with a one-step process. We show that our method produces unbiased estimates. The accuracy of the method is tested via simulations. Finally, the utility of the method is illustrated with an application to several loci encoding coat color in horses, a pattern that has previously been linked with domestication. Importantly, given our ability to estimate the age of the allele, it is possible to gain traction on the important problem of distinguishing selection on new mutations from selection on standing variation. In this coat color example for instance, we estimate the age of this allele, which is found to predate domestication. PMID:22851647

  14. Estimating allele age and selection coefficient from time-serial data.

    PubMed

    Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Malaspinas, Orestis; Evans, Steven N; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2012-10-01

    Recent advances in sequencing technologies have made available an ever-increasing amount of ancient genomic data. In particular, it is now possible to target specific single nucleotide polymorphisms in several samples at different time points. Such time-series data are also available in the context of experimental or viral evolution. Time-series data should allow for a more precise inference of population genetic parameters and to test hypotheses about the recent action of natural selection. In this manuscript, we develop a likelihood method to jointly estimate the selection coefficient and the age of an allele from time-serial data. Our method can be used for allele frequencies sampled from a single diallelic locus. The transition probabilities are calculated by approximating the standard diffusion equation of the Wright-Fisher model with a one-step process. We show that our method produces unbiased estimates. The accuracy of the method is tested via simulations. Finally, the utility of the method is illustrated with an application to several loci encoding coat color in horses, a pattern that has previously been linked with domestication. Importantly, given our ability to estimate the age of the allele, it is possible to gain traction on the important problem of distinguishing selection on new mutations from selection on standing variation. In this coat color example for instance, we estimate the age of this allele, which is found to predate domestication.

  15. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2013-01-01

    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  16. Estimating age at death using the sternal end of the fourth ribs from Mexican males.

    PubMed

    Cerezo-Román, Jessica Inés; Hernández Espinoza, Patricia Olga

    2014-03-01

    The indicators proposed by İşcan et al. (1984) are said to reflect age changes that occur in the sternal end of the fourth rib. These indicators have been used to estimate age-at-death in adult skeletal samples. However, Isçan et al. developed their methods using a forensic sample from Florida (U.S.A.). In order to test the reproducibility of those methods we evaluate its accuracy for the fourth ribs by applying it to a sample of known age and sex but of different biological affinity: modern males from Mexico City. We found that the method developed by İşcan et al. underestimates age-at-death in the Mexican sample.

  17. Age estimates of globular clusters in the Milky Way: constraints on cosmology.

    PubMed

    Krauss, Lawrence M; Chaboyer, Brian

    2003-01-03

    Recent observations of stellar globular clusters in the Milky Way Galaxy, combined with revised ranges of parameters in stellar evolution codes and new estimates of the earliest epoch of globular cluster formation, result in a 95% confidence level lower limit on the age of the Universe of 11.2 billion years. This age is inconsistent with the expansion age for a flat Universe for the currently allowed range of the Hubble constant, unless the cosmic equation of state is dominated by a component that violates the strong energy condition. This means that the three fundamental observables in cosmology-the age of the Universe, the distance-redshift relation, and the geometry of the Universe-now independently support the case for a dark energy-dominated Universe.

  18. Utility of the frontonasal suture for estimating age at death in human skeletal remains.

    PubMed

    Alesbury, Helen S; Ubelaker, Douglas H; Bernstein, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This project evaluated the utility of the frontonasal suture for estimating age at death. Utilizing human remains of known age at death with varying degrees of fusion, curated at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City and the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, DC, data were collected from the ectocranial surface of 522 crania; 68 of these were sagittally sectioned, allowing collection of internal data and observation of suture closure through the bone. Degree of ectocranial suture closure does not significantly predict age, even when sex and ancestry are accounted for. Suture closure progression data were converted into a Hershkovitz ratio (sum of the measurement of open portion divided by the total suture length), and regression models demonstrate that the effect of age accounts for only 13% of variation in suture closure.

  19. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  20. A procedure to estimate the electric field induced in human body exposed to unknown magnetic sources.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wencui; Bottauscio, Oriano; Chiampi, Mario; Giordano, Domenico; Zilberti, Luca

    2013-04-01

    The paper proposes and discusses a boundary element procedure able to predict the distribution of the electric field induced in a human body exposed to a low-frequency magnetic field produced by unknown sources. As a first step, the magnetic field on the body surface is reconstructed starting from the magnetic field values detected on a closed surface enclosing the sources. Then, the solution of a boundary value problem provides the electric field distribution inside the human model. The procedure is tested and validated by considering different non-uniform magnetic field distributions generated by a Helmholtz coil system as well as different locations of the human model.

  1. Age and sex differences in estimated tibia strength: influence of measurement site.

    PubMed

    Sherk, Vanessa D; Bemben, Debra A

    2013-01-01

    Variability in peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) measurement sites and outcome variables limit direct comparisons of results between studies. Furthermore, it is unclear what estimates of bone strength are most indicative of changes due to aging, disease, or interventions. The purpose of this study was to examine age and sex differences in estimates of tibia strength. An additional purpose of this study was to determine which tibia site or sites are most sensitive for detecting age and sex differences in tibia strength. Self-identifying Caucasian men (n=55) and women (n=59) aged 20-59yr had their tibias measured with pQCT from 5% to 85% of limb length in 10% increments distal to proximal. Bone strength index, strength strain index (SSI), moments of inertia (Ip, Imax, and Imin), and strength-to-mass ratios (polar moment of inertia to total bone mineral content [BMC] ratio [Ip:Tot.BMC] and strength strain index to total BMC ratio [SSI:Tot.BMC]) were quantified. There were significant (p<0.01) site effects for all strength variables and strength-to-mass ratios. Site×sex interaction effects were significant (p<0.05) for all strength variables. Men had greater (p<0.01) values than women for all strength variables. Sex differences in Ip, Imax, Ip:Tot.BMC, SSI, and SSI:Tot.BMC ratios were the smallest at the 15% site and peaked at various sites, depending on variable. Site×age interactions existed for Imax, Ip:Tot.BMC, and SSI:Tot.BMC. There were significant age effects, Imax, Ip:Tot.BMC, and SSI:Tot.BMC, as values were the lowest in the 20-29 age group. Age and sex differences varied by measurement site and variable, and larger sex differences existed for moments of inertia than SSI. Strength-to-mass ratios may reflect efficiency of the whole bone architecture.

  2. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    PubMed

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

  3. The biochemical estimation of age in Euphausiids: Laboratory calibration and field comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, H. R.; Ju, Se-J.; Son, S.-K.; Feinberg, L. R.; Shaw, C. T.; Peterson, W. T.

    2010-04-01

    Euphausiids play a key role in many marine ecosystems as a link between primary producers and top predators. Understanding their demographic (i.e. age) structure is an essential tool to assess growth and recruitment as well as to determine how changes in environmental conditions might alter their condition and distribution. Age determination of crustaceans cannot be accomplished using traditional approaches, and here we evaluate the potential for biochemical products of tissue metabolism (termed lipofuscins) to determine the demographic structure of euphausiids in field collections . Lipofuscin was extracted from krill neural tissues (eye and eye-stalk), quantified using fluorescent intensity and normalized to tissue protein content to allow comparisons across animal sizes. Multiple fluorescent components from krill were observed, with the major product having a maximum fluorescence at excitation of 355 nm and emission of 510 nm. Needed age calibration of lipofuscin accumulation in Euphausia pacifica was accomplished using known-age individuals hatched and reared in the laboratory for over one year. Lipofuscin content extracted from neural tissues of laboratory-reared animals was highly correlated with the chronological age of animals ( r=0.87). Calibrated with laboratory lipofuscin accumulation rates, field-collected sub-adult and adult E. pacifica in the Northeast Pacific were estimated to be older than 100 days and younger than 1year. Comparative data for the Antarctic krill, E. superba showed much higher lipofuscin values suggesting a much longer lifespan than the more temperate species, E. pacifica. These regional comparisons suggest that biochemical indices allow a practical approach to estimate population age structure of diverse populations, and combined with other measurements can provide estimates of vital rates (i.e. longevity, mortality, growth) for krill populations in dynamic environments.

  4. Forensic age estimation by the Schmeling method: computed tomography analysis of the medial clavicular epiphysis.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Inci, Ercan; Sayin, Ibrahim; Solmaz, Dilek; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Can, Ismail Ozgur

    2015-01-01

    The variability of anthropometric measures, such as the degree of ossification, among societies should be taken into account when estimating age. The degree of ossification of the medial clavicle can be determined with thin-section computed tomography (CT), which is one of the methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics of the German Association of Forensic Medicine. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the applicability of thin-section CT analysis of the degree of ossification of the medial clavicle in a Turkish population. We evaluated the CT images (1-mm slice thickness) of 503 patients (362 male, 141 female; age, 10-35 years) using the Schmeling five-stage method. The Spearman's correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between age and ossification stage in both male and female patients (total group: rho = 0.838, p < 0.001; male: rho = 0.831, p < 0.001; female: rho = 0.856, p < 0.001). The linear regression analysis results indicated that the ossification stage of the medial clavicle is a good predictor when estimating age (r (2) = 0.735 for all patients, 0.734 for male patients, 0.741 for female patients). Sex differences in ossification stages were observed only for stage 1 and 4 ossification. We believe that future research could expand the database on this topic and contribute to improvements in this measurement method.

  5. Parameter estimation using carbon-14 ages: Lessons from the Danube-Tisza interfluvial region of Hungary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.E.; Deak, J.; Revesz, K.

    2002-01-01

    Parameter estimation was conducted on a groundwater model of the Danube-Tisza interfluvial region of Hungary. The model was calibrated using 300 water levels and 48 14C ages. The model provided a test of regression methods for a system with a large number of observations. Up to 103 parameters representing horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities and boundary conductances were assigned using point values and bilinear interpolation between points. The lowest errors were obtained using an iterative approach with groups of parameters, rather than estimating all of the parameters simultaneously. The model with 48 parameters yielded the lowest standard error of regression.

  6. Estimating Standard Errors of Cut Scores for Item Rating and Mapmark Procedures: A Generalizability Theory Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yin, Ping; Sconing, James

    2008-01-01

    Standard-setting methods are widely used to determine cut scores on a test that examinees must meet for a certain performance standard. Because standard setting is a measurement procedure, it is important to evaluate variability of cut scores resulting from the standard-setting process. Generalizability theory is used in this study to estimate…

  7. Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

    2007-01-01

    age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. AN ALGORITHM FOR THE ESTIMATION OF GESTATIONAL AGE AT THE TIME OF FETAL DEATH

    PubMed Central

    Conway, Deborah L.; Hansen, Nellie I.; Dudley, Donald J.; Parker, Corette B.; Reddy, Uma M.; Silver, Robert M.; Bukowski, Radek; Pinar, Halit; Stoll, Barbara J.; Varner, Michael W.; Saade, George R.; Hogue, Carol; Willinger, Marian; Coustan, Donald; Koch, Matthew A.; Goldenberg, Robert L.

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurate assignment of gestational age at time of fetal death is important for research and clinical practice. An algorithm to estimate gestational age (GA) at fetal death was developed and evaluated. Methods The algorithm developed by the Stillbirth Collaborative Research Network (SCRN) incorporated clinical and postmortem data. The SCRN conducted a population-based case-control study of women with stillbirths and live births from 2006 to 2008 in five geographic catchment areas. Rules were developed to estimate a due date, identify an interval during which death likely occurred, and estimate GA at the time of fetal death. Reliability of using fetal foot length to estimate GA at death was assessed. Results The due date estimated for 620 singleton stillbirths studied was considered clinically reliable for 87%. Only 25.2% of stillbirths were documented alive within two days before diagnosis and 47.6% within one week of diagnosis. The algorithm-derived estimate of GA at time of fetal death was 1 or more weeks earlier than the GA at delivery for 43.5% of stillbirths. GA estimated from fetal foot length agreed with GA by algorithm within two weeks for 75% within a subset of well-dated stillbirths. Conclusions Precise assignment of GA at death, defined as reliable dating criteria and a short interval (≤1 week) during which fetal death was known to have occurred, was possible in 46.6% of cases. Fetal foot length is a relatively accurate measure of GA at death and should be collected in all stillbirth cases. PMID:23374059

  9. Age estimation and the developing third molar tooth: an analysis of an Australian population using computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Bassed, Richard B; Briggs, C; Drummer, Olaf H

    2011-09-01

    The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for age estimation of unknown age individuals in the late adolescent years. Computed tomography (CT) images were assessed in an Australian population aged from 15 to 25 years for development trends, particularly concerning age estimation at the child/adult transition point of 18 years. The CT images were also compared to conventional radiographs to assess the developmental scoring agreement between the two and it was found that agreement of Demirjian scores between the two imaging modalities was excellent. The relatively wide age ranges (mean ± 2SD) indicate that the third molar is not a precise tool for age estimation (age ranges of 3-8 years) but is, however, a useful tool for discriminating the adult/child transition age of 18 years. In the current study 100% of females and 96% of males with completed roots were over 18 years of age.

  10. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-01-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

  11. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged <50 years. Data were extracted from IMS' PharMetrics Plus claims database for patients with a diagnosis of pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged <1 year. Method 2 gave an average annual projected incidence of 21/100,000. Method 3 gave an overall regression-estimated weighted annual incidence of pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged <50 years and provide further evidence that the majority of cases go undetected, especially with increasing age, may aid in the development of public health programs to reduce pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  12. The Cu, Mn and Zn concentration of sheep wool: influence of washing procedures, age and colour of matrix.

    PubMed

    Hawkins, D P; Ragnarsdóttir, K V

    2009-06-15

    No standard or wholly proven method to determine the trace metal status of human or animal 'hair' yet exists. It is well known that hair-metal concentrations are highly influenced by washing procedures applied before analysis. A novel method to determine the efficiency of washing procedures at removing exogenous contaminants was devised. It was shown that suitability of washing procedures was element-specific and increased sonication time during washing progressively removed more Mn and Zn from sheep wool. The efficiency of exogenous contaminant removal by including sonication during washing was also dependent on the efficiency of procedures under study. The Cu, Mn and Zn concentration, and thus exogenous contaminant level, of sheep wool increased in tandem with its age. Additionally, Cu and Zn concentrations of black wool were significantly higher than white wool: a relationship ascribed to melanins. This investigation shows the necessity to standardise procedures used during analysis of 'hair' fibres, and to assess each washing procedure for each element before performing routine analysis.

  13. Estimation of nitrogen maintenance requirements and potential for nitrogen deposition in fast-growing chickens depending on age and sex.

    PubMed

    Samadi, F; Liebert, F

    2006-08-01

    Experiments were conducted to estimate daily N maintenance requirements (NMR) and the genetic potential for daily N deposition (ND(max)T) in fast-growing chickens depending on age and sex. In N-balance studies, 144 male and 144 female chickens (Cobb 500) were utilized in 4 consecutive age periods (I: 10 to 25 d; II: 30 to 45 d; III: 50 to 65 d; and IV: 70 to 85 d). The experimental diets contained high-protein soybean meal and crystalline amino acids as protein sources and 6 graded levels of protein supply (N1 = 6.6%; N2 = 13.0%; N3 = 19.6%; N4 = 25.1%; N5 = 31.8%; and N6 = 37.6% CP in DM). The connection between N intake and total N excretion was fitted for NMR determination by an exponential function. The average NMR value (252 mg of N/BW(kg)0.67 per d) was applied for further calculation of ND(max)T as the threshold value of the function between N intake and daily N balance. For estimating the threshold value, the principle of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm within the SPSS program (Version 11.5) was applied. As a theoretical maximum for ND(max)T, 3,592, 2,723, 1,702, and 1,386 mg of N/BW(kg)0.67 per d for male and 3,452, 2,604, 1,501, and 1,286 mg of N/BW(kg)0.67 per d for female fast-growing chickens (corresponding to age periods I to IV) were obtained. The determined model parameters were the precondition for modeling of the amino acid requirement based on an exponential N-utilization model and depended on performance and dietary amino acid efficiency. This procedure will be further developed and applied in the subsequent paper.

  14. Striking effect of time variation in the estimation of groundwater age in the Wairarapa valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrus, Karine; Toews, Michael; Daughney, Christopher; Cornaton, Fabien

    2014-05-01

    The Wairarapa Valley exhibits complex interactions between its rivers and shallow aquifers. With agriculture being an essential part of the region the risk of contamination and depletion of groundwater exists. In order to assist with water resource management in the region, we can do predictions with the help of numerical models. Among these predictions, the evaluation of groundwater age is critical for decision making. This project builds on work done by Greater Wellington Regional Council and will focus on the Wairarapa Valley. The aim of this study is to evaluate the age of the groundwater in the Wairarapa region. Investigations have already been done thanks to hydrochemistry. However radiometric age can be misleading in the sense that it does not consider the mixing process in the motion of groundwater particules. Therefore another approach can be considered .This latter is physic based by considering the age as a property that we transport through two main processes: advection at a macroscopic scale and diffusion at a microscopic scale. The determination of the distribution age by this approach has already been done for the Lake Rotorua but in the steady state case (cf Daughney). The unique contribution of the present study is to estimate the changes in groundwater age distribution through time within the region. Indeed transient simulations are needed to explicitly account for seasonally variable rainfall and pumping wells. This affects the simulated flow solution and then the simulated age solution. In order to solve numerically the transport of age distribution we have chosen to use the Time Marching Laplace Transform Galerkin technique which has been developed in a research code by Fabien Cornaton. The obtained results depict that temporal variations in groundwater age are present and have important implication for resource management

  15. Age and growth of round gobies in Lake Michigan, with preliminary mortality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huo, Bin; Madenjian, Charles P.; Xie, Cong X.; Zhao, Yingming; O'Brien, Timothy P.; Czesny, Sergiusz J.

    2015-01-01

    The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is a prevalent invasive species throughout Lake Michigan, as well as other Laurentian Great Lakes, yet little information is available on spatial variation in round goby growth within one body of water. Age and growth of round goby at three areas of Lake Michigan were studied by otolith analysis from a sample of 659 specimens collected from 2008 to 2012. Total length (TL) ranged from 48 to 131 mm for Sturgeon Bay, from 50 to 125 mm for Waukegan, and from 54 to 129 mm for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Ages ranged from 2 to 7 years for Sturgeon Bay, from 2 to 5 years for Waukegan, and from 2 to 6 years for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Area-specific and sex-specific body–otolith relationships were used to back-calculate estimates of total length at age, which were fitted to von Bertalanffy models to estimate growth rates. For both sexes, round gobies at Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan grew significantly faster than those at Sturgeon Bay. However, round goby growth did not significantly differ between Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan for either sex. At all three areas of Lake Michigan, males grew significantly faster than females. Based on catch curve analysis, estimates of annual mortality rates ranged from 0.79 to 0.84. These relatively high mortality rates suggested that round gobies may be under predatory control in Lake Michigan.

  16. Application of a modified regularization procedure for estimating oxygen tension in large retinal blood vessels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yildirim, Isa; Ansari, Rashid; Samil Yetik, I.; Shahidi, Mahnaz

    2010-03-01

    Phosphorescence lifetime measurement based on a frequency domain approach is used to estimate oxygen tension in large retinal blood vessels. The classical least squares (LS) estimation was initially used to determine oxygen tension indirectly from intermediate variables. A spatial regularized least squares (RLS) method was later proposed to reduce the high variance of oxygen tension estimated by LS method. In this paper, we provide a solution using a modified RLS (MRLS) approach that utilizes prior knowledge about retinal vessels oxygenation based on expected oxygen tension values in retinal arteries and veins. The performance of MRLS method was evaluated in simulated and experimental data by determining the bias, variance, and mean absolute error (MAE) of oxygen tension measurements and comparing these parameters with those derived with the use of LS and RLS methods.

  17. Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

    2015-01-01

    Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

  18. Estimation of forensic age using substages of ossification of the medial clavicle in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Inci, Ercan; Can, Ismail Ozgur; Aksoy, Sema; Sayin, Ibrahim

    2015-11-01

    Forensic age estimation based on staging of ossification of the medial clavicular bone is one of the methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics of the German Association of Forensic Medicine. In the present study, we analyzed the stages of ossification of the medial clavicular epiphyses on thin-sliced (1 mm) computed tomography (CT) images using the substages defined within stages 2 and 3. The retrospective CT analysis involved 193 subjects (129 males, 64 females) ranging in age from 13 to 28 years. Spearman's correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between age and ossification stage in both male and female subjects. Stage 3c was first observed at 19 years of age in both sexes and may thus serve as a valuable forensic marker for determining an age of 18 years. Although further research is needed on the ossification stages of the medial clavicular epiphyses, the present findings could contribute to existing reports on observers' experiences using CT analysis of ossification combined with analysis of substages.

  19. Estimating dose rates to organs as a function of age following internal exposure to radionuclides

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Cristy, M.; Crawford-Brown, D.J.; Williams, L.R.

    1984-03-01

    The AGEDOS methodology allows estimates of dose rates, as a function of age, to radiosensitive organs and tissues in the human body at arbitrary times during or after internal exposure to radioactive material. Presently there are few, if any, radionuclides for which sufficient metabolic information is available to allow full use of all features of the methodology. The intention has been to construct the methodology so that optimal information can be gained from a mixture of the limited amount of age-dependent, nuclide-specific data and the generally plentiful age-dependent physiological data now available. Moreover, an effort has been made to design the methodology so that constantly accumulating metabolic information can be incorporated with minimal alterations in the AGEDOS computer code. Some preliminary analyses performed by the authors, using the AGEDOS code in conjunction with age-dependent risk factors developed from the A-bomb survivor data and other studies, has indicated that the doses and subsequent risks of eventually experiencing radiogenic cancers may vary substantially with age for some exposure scenarios and may be relatively invariant with age for other scenarios. We believe that the AGEDOS methodology provides a convenient and efficient means for performing the internal dosimetry.

  20. Accuracy of developing tooth length as an estimate of age in human skeletal remains: the deciduous dentition.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V

    2007-10-02

    Dental age assessments are widely used to estimate age of immature skeletal remains. Most methods have relied on fractional stages of tooth emergence and formation, particularly of the permanent dentition, for predicting the age of infants and very young children. In this study, the accuracy of regression equations of developing deciduous tooth length for age estimation (Liversidge et al.) is tested on a sample of 30 Portuguese subadult skeletons of known age at death. Overall the method shows high accuracy and the average difference between estimated and chronological age is between 0.20 and -0.14 years when using single teeth, and 0.06 years, when using all available teeth. However, there is a tendency for the deciduous molars to provide overestimates of chronological age. Results show that age estimates can be obtained within +/-0.10 years with a 95% confidence interval when several teeth are used. Overall between-tooth agreement in age estimates decreases with increasing age but there is less variability of estimates with more teeth contributing to overall mean age. One seemingly limitation of this method may be the fact that it was developed by combining the maxillary and mandibular teeth. The other is related to the accuracy with which radiographic tooth length can be used as a valid surrogate for actual tooth length. Nevertheless, the advantages of this metric method surpass the limitations of chronologies based on stages of dental development.

  1. Handbook of estimating data, factors, and procedures. [for manufacturing cost studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freeman, L. M.

    1977-01-01

    Elements to be considered in estimating production costs are discussed in this manual. Guidelines, objectives, and methods for analyzing requirements and work structure are given. Time standards for specific specfic operations are listed for machining, sheet metal working, electroplating and metal treating; painting; silk screening, etching and encapsulating; coil winding; wire preparation and wiring; soldering; and the fabrication of etched circuits and terminal boards. The relation of the various elements of cost to the total cost as proposed for various programs by various contractors is compared with government estimates.

  2. Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

  3. Estimating the age of healthy infants from quantitative myelin water fraction maps.

    PubMed

    Dean, Douglas C; O'Muircheartaigh, Jonathan; Dirks, Holly; Waskiewicz, Nicole; Lehman, Katie; Walker, Lindsay; Piryatinsky, Irene; Deoni, Sean C L

    2015-04-01

    The trajectory of the developing brain is characterized by a sequence of complex, nonlinear patterns that occur at systematic stages of maturation. Although significant prior neuroimaging research has shed light on these patterns, the challenge of accurately characterizing brain maturation, and identifying areas of accelerated or delayed development, remains. Altered brain development, particularly during the earliest stages of life, is believed to be associated with many neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders. In this work, we develop a framework to construct voxel-wise estimates of brain age based on magnetic resonance imaging measures sensitive to myelin content. 198 myelin water fraction (VF(M) ) maps were acquired from healthy male and female infants and toddlers, 3 to 48 months of age, and used to train a sigmoidal-based maturational model. The validity of the approach was then established by testing the model on 129 different VF(M) datasets. Results revealed the approach to have high accuracy, with a mean absolute percent error of 13% in males and 14% in females, and high predictive ability, with correlation coefficients between estimated and true ages of 0.945 in males and 0.94 in females. This work represents a new approach toward mapping brain maturity, and may provide a more faithful staging of brain maturation in infants beyond chronological or gestation-corrected age, allowing earlier identification of atypical regional brain development.

  4. The Impact of Starspots on Mass and Age Estimates for Pre-main Sequence Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somers, Garrett; Pinsonneault, Marc H.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact of starspots on the evolution of late-type stars during the pre-main sequence (pre-MS). We find that heavy spot coverage increases the radii of stars by 4-10%, consistent with inflation factors in eclipsing binary systems, and suppresses the rate of pre-MS lithium depletion, leading to a dispersion in zero-age MS Li abundance (comparable to observed spreads) if a range of spot properties exist within clusters from 3-10 Myr. This concordance with data implies that spots induce a range of radii at fixed mass during the pre-MS. These spots decrease the luminosity and T eff of stars, leading to a displacement on the HR diagram. This displacement causes isochrone derived masses and ages to be systematically under-estimated, and can lead to the spurious appearance of an age spread in a co-eval population.

  5. Equations to estimate fetal age at the moment of death in the Mexican population.

    PubMed

    Chávez-Martínez, Perla; Ortega-Palma, Albertina; Castrejón-Caballero, José Luis; Arteaga-Martínez, Manuel

    2016-09-01

    Metric standards are presented for the estimation of fetal age at the time of death in the Mexican population. To obtain these standards, both metric and radiological studies were conducted on 97 fetuses and complete stillborn infants of both sexes, phenotypically normal between 10 and 38 weeks of morphological age. All the fetuses used were the product of spontaneous abortions in Mexico City between 1990 and 2000. Equations were obtained by calibrating quadratic linear regression models adjusted for the diaphyseal length of the humerus, radius, ulna, femur, tibia and fibula, characterized as the most adequate indicators to represent the growth of long bones in this age group, and verified by the evaluation of the model assumptions and the coefficient of determination (R(2)). To conclude, these models facilitate a more precise prediction in fetuses of the Mexican population, constituting the first metric standards of their type at a national level.

  6. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  7. Estimation of demographic measures for India, 1881-1961, based on census age distributions.

    PubMed

    Das Gupta, P

    1971-11-01

    Abstract India is one of the very few developing countries which have a relatively long history of population censuses. The first census was taken in 1872, the second in 1881 and since then there has been a census every ten years, the latest in 1971. Yet the registration of births and deaths in India, even at the present time, is too inadequate to be of much help in estimating fertility and mortality conditions in the country. From time to time Indian census actuaries have indirectly constructed life tables by comparing one census age distribution with the preceding one. Official life tables are available for all the decades from 1872-1881 to 1951-1961, except for 1911-1921 and 1931-1941. Kingsley Davis(1) filled in the gap by constructing life tables for the latter two decades. He also estimated the birth and death rates ofIndia for the decades from 1881-1891 to 1931-1941. Estimates of these rates for the following two decades, 1941-1951 and 1951-1961, were made by Indian census actuaries. The birth rates of Davis and the Indian actuaries were obtained basically by the reverse survival method from the age distribution and the computed life table of the population. Coale and Hoover(2), however, estimated the birth and death rates and the life table of the Indian population in 1951 by applying stable population theory. The most recent estimates of the birth rate and death rate for 1963-1964 are based on the results of the National Sample Survey. All these estimates are presented in summary form in Table 1.

  8. Reliability of 1-Repetition Maximum Estimation for Upper and Lower Body Muscular Strength Measurement in Untrained Middle Aged Type 2 Diabetic Patients

    PubMed Central

    Abdul-Hameed, Unaise; Rangra, Prateek; Shareef, Mohd. Yakub; Hussain, Mohd. Ejaz

    2012-01-01

    Purpose The 1-repetition maximum (1-RM) test is the gold standard test for evaluating maximal dynamic strength of groups of muscles. However, safety of actual 1-RM testing is questionable in clinical situations such as type 2 diabetes (T2D), where an estimated 1-RM test is preferred. It is unclear if acceptable test retest reliability exists for the estimated 1-RM test in middle aged T2D patients. This study examined the reliability of the estimated 1-RM strength test in untrained middle aged T2D subjects. Methods Twenty five untrained diabetic males (n=19) and females (n=6) aged 40.7+0.4 years participated in the study. Participants undertook the first estimated 1-RM test for five exercises namely supine bench press, leg press, lateral pull, leg extension and seated biceps curls. A familiarisation session was provided three to five days before the first test. 1-RM was estimated for all participants by Brzycki 1-RM prediction equation. Another identical 1-RM estimation procedure occurred one week after first test. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), paired t-test, standard error of measurement (SEM), Bland-Altman plots, and estimation of 95% CI were used to assess reliability. Results Test-retest reliability was excellent (ICC2,1=0.98-0.99) for all measurements with the highest for leg extension (ICC2,1=0.99). The SEM was lowest for lateral pull and leg extension exercises. Paired t-tests showed non-significant differences between the means of 2 sessions across three of five exercises. Conclusions The study findings suggest that estimation of 1-RM is reliable for upper and lower body muscular strength measurement in untrained middle aged T2D patients. PMID:23342225

  9. Global estimate of the incidence of clinical pneumonia among children under five years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Tomaskovic, Lana; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Campbell, Harry

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Clinical pneumonia (defined as respiratory infections associated with clinical signs of pneumonia, principally pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children under five years of age is still the leading cause of childhood mortality in the world. In this paper we aim to estimate the worldwide incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children. METHODS: Our estimate for the developing world is based on an analysis of published data on the incidence of clinical pneumonia from community based longitudinal studies. Among more than 2000 studies published since 1961, we identified 46 studies that reported the incidence of clinical pneumonia, and 28 of these met pre-defined quality criteria. FINDINGS: The estimate of the median incidence from those studies was 0.28 episodes per child-year (e/cy). The 25-75% interquartile range was 0.21-0.71. We assessed the plausibility of this estimate using estimates of global mortality from acute respiratory infections and reported case fatality rates for all episodes of clinical pneumonia reported in community-based studies or the case-fatality rate reported only for severe cases and estimates of the proportion of severe cases occurring in a defined population or community. CONCLUSION: The overlap between the ranges of the estimates implies that a plausible incidence estimate of clinical pneumonia for developing countries is 0.29 e/cy. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, 11-20 million (7-13%) of which are severe enough to require hospital admission. In the developed world no comparable data are available. However, large population-based studies report that the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children less than five years old is approximately 0.026 e/cy, suggesting that more than 95% of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries. PMID:15654403

  10. Magnetic resonance imaging of distal tibia and calcaneus for forensic age estimation in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Can, Ismail Ozgur; Inci, Ercan; Aksoy, Sema; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan

    2015-07-01

    In recent years, methods by which to decrease radiation exposure during age estimation have gained importance and become a main research area in the forensic sciences. Imaging tools such as X-ray and computed tomography (CT) are accepted as the main diagnostic methods for evaluation of the epiphysis in living individuals; however, radiation exposure and superimposition are the main disadvantages of these techniques. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging provides an advantage in terms of preventing radiation exposure. In this study, we performed an MR analysis of the degree of fusion of the distal tibia and calcaneal epiphysis and investigated the utility of this technique in the Turkish population. Using the three-stage method described by Saint-Martin et al., we retrospectively evaluated 167 MR images (97 males, 70 females; mean age, 17.7 ± 4.8 years for males and 17.6 ± 4.9 years for females; age range of all subjects, 8-25 years). Intraobserver and interobserver evaluation showed good repeatability and consistency of this method. Stages 2 and 3 ossification of the distal tibial epiphysis first occurred at age 14 and 15 years in males and 12 and 14 years in females, respectively. Stages 2 and 3 ossification of the calcaneal epiphysis first occurred at age 14 and 16 years in males and 10 and 12 years in females, respectively. When performed alone, MR analysis of the distal tibial and calcaneal epiphysis offers limited information for forensic age estimation. However, we suggest that MR analysis can be used as a supportive method when it is necessary to avoid repeated radiation exposure.

  11. Effects of aging procedures on the molecular, biochemical, morphological, and mechanical properties of vacuum-formed retainers.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Hyo-Won; Ha, Hye-Ryun; Lim, Ho-Nam; Choi, Samjin

    2015-11-01

    The influence of intraoral exposure procedures on the physical characteristics of thermoplastic vacuum-formed retainers (VFRs) is still unclear. The effects of thermoforming and intraoral use on the molecular, chemical, morphological, and mechanical properties of thermoplastic VFRs were investigated. VFRs with a 0.8-mm-thick thermoplastic PETG sheet acquired from 48 patients were investigated with two aging procedures, including vacuum forming and intraoral exposure, for 2-week and 6-month. Eight evaluating sites for thermoplastic VFRs were assessed with seven analytical techniques. LM, SEM, and AFM microscopic findings showed that the surface characteristics increased with increasing in vivo exposure time (a four-fold increase) and varied depending on the sites evaluated (an occlusal surface). Raman and EDX spectroscopic findings showed that aging procedures led to a significant change in the molecular composition of VFRs, leading to a decrease in the composition rate of carbon (C) and the presence of silicon (Si), phosphorus (P), and calcium (Ca). Compressive strength and tensile tests showed that aging procedures led to a significant increase (P<0.01) in ultimate tensile strength, elastic modulus, the stored energy at a 6-mm deflection (u6 mm), and the compressed load at a 3-mm deflection (σ3 mm). Thermoforming led to a smoother surface and no crystallization of PETG sheets. Intraoral exposure accelerated changes in surface morphology, tensile strength, and elastic modulus of VFRs. This change was site-specific and enhanced with an increase in intraoral exposure time. Therefore, thermoforming and in vivo oral exposure procedures led to the molecular, morphological, and mechanical properties of thermoplastic VFRs.

  12. A Procedure for Estimating Enrollment and Cost Factors at Potential AFROTC Host-Sites.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alley, William E.; Berberich, George L.

    The development of effectiveness criteria for AFROTC detachments, and relationships between the criteria and various environmental and program characteristics are described. The objective of the study is the development of a method for estimating student enrollments and total operating costs at perspective host-site institutions by using…

  13. A Forward Search Procedure for Identifying Influential Observations in the Estimation of a Covariance Matrix

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poon, Wai-Yin; Wong, Yuen-Kwan

    2004-01-01

    This study uses a Cook's distance type diagnostic statistic to identify unusual observations in a data set that unduly influence the estimation of a covariance matrix. Similar to many other deletion-type diagnostic statistics, this proposed measure is susceptible to masking or swamping effect in the presence of several unusual observations. In…

  14. 40 CFR Appendix C to Part 75 - Missing Data Estimation Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... NOX control removal efficiency, (e.g., reagent feedrate in gal/mi). 1.3Correlation of Emissions With... operating loads. Equations 1-7 in § 75.15 may be used to estimate the percent removal efficiency of the...

  15. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  16. A Bayesian Approach to Age-at-Death Estimation from Osteoarthritis of the Shoulder in Modern North Americans.

    PubMed

    Brennaman, Ashley L; Love, Kim R; Bethard, Jonathan D; Pokines, James T

    2016-12-08

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a marker of degeneration within the skeleton, frequently associated with age. This study quantifies the correlation between OA and age-at-death and investigates the utility of shoulder OA as a forensic age indicator using a modern North American sample of 206 individuals. Lipping, surface porosity, osteophyte formation, eburnation, and percentage of joint surface affected were recorded on an ordinal scale and summed to create composite scores that were assigned a specific phase. Spearman's correlation indicated a positive relationship between each composite score and age (right shoulder = 0.752; left shoulder = 0.734). Transition analysis revealed a tendency toward earlier degeneration of the right shoulder. Bayesian statistics generated phase-related age estimates based on highest posterior density regions. Best age estimates were into the seventh decade at the 90th and 50th percentile. The proposed method supplements traditional techniques by providing age estimates beyond a homogenous 50+ age cohort.

  17. Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) pupae: a timeline of external morphological development and a new age and PMI estimation tool.

    PubMed

    Brown, Katherine; Thorne, Alan; Harvey, Michelle

    2015-07-01

    The minimum postmortem interval (PMI(min)) is commonly estimated using calliphorid larvae, for which there are established age estimation methods based on morphological and development data. Despite the increased duration and sedentary nature of the pupal stage of the blowfly, morphological age estimation methods are poorly documented and infrequently used for PMI determination. The aim of this study was to develop a timeline of metamorphosis, focusing on the development of external morphology (within the puparium), to provide a means of age and PMI estimation for Calliphora vicina (Rob-Desvoidy) pupae. Under controlled conditions, 1,494 pupae were reared and sampled at regular time intervals. After puparium removal, observations of 23 external metamorphic developments were correlated to age in accumulated degree hours (ADH). Two age estimation methods were developed based on (1) the combination of possible age ranges observed for each characteristic and (2) regression analyses to generate age estimation equations employing all 23 characteristics observed and a subset of ten characteristics most significantly correlated with age. Blind sample analysis indicated that, using the combination of both methods, pupal age could be estimated to within ±500 ADH with 95% reliability.

  18. Age estimation of immature human skeletal remains from the diaphyseal length of the long bones in the postnatal period.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V; Abrantes, Joana; Humphrey, Louise T

    2014-09-01

    Age at death in immature human skeletal remains has been estimated from the diaphyseal length of the long bones, but few studies have actually been designed specifically for the purpose of age estimation and those which have, show important caveats. This study uses regression and classical calibration to model the relationship between age and diaphyseal length of the six long bones, in a sample of 184 known sex and age individuals (72 females and 112 males), younger than 13 years of age, selected from Portuguese and English skeletal collections. Age estimation models based on classical calibration were obtained for each of the six long bones, and separately for each sex and for the sexes combined, and also for the entire sample and when it is subdivided into two subsamples at the age of 2 years. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show there is a systematic bias in age estimations obtained from inverse calibration. In the classical calibration models, the length of the femur provides the most accurate estimates of age. Age estimates are more accurate for the male subsample and for individuals under the age of 2 years. These results and a test of previously published methods caution against inverse calibration as a technique for developing age estimation methods even from the immature skeleton. Age estimation methods developed using cemetery collections of identified human skeletons should not be uncritically applied to present-day populations from the same region since many populations have experienced dramatic secular trends in growth and adult height over the last century.

  19. A case of an adoptive girl with precocious puberty: the problem of age estimation.

    PubMed

    De Donno, Antonio; Roca, Roberta; Introna, Francesco; Santoro, Valeria

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is one of the main tasks of forensic anthropology and odontology, both on the dead and the living. In living subjects, age estimation may be used to establish an individual's status as a minor in cases involving adoption, criminal responsibility, child pornography, and those seeking asylum, especially where adequate identification documents are lacking. The authors report a case about age assessment of a girl born in Mbujimayi (Democratic Republic of Congo) and later adopted in Italy. The birth certificate issued after finding the child in a state of abandonment (in December 2007), bore date of 12.12.2004, but this was in contrast with the year of birth - 2003 - stated on the certification available to the center that had provided accommodation to the girl in Africa. Her adoptive parents reported that the child had been diagnosed with precocious puberty and was thus under treatment. She weighed 32.5 kg and was 132.5 cm tall. Body mass index (BMI) corresponded to the range between 9.5 and 14 years of age. The assessment of maturity indicators (sexual characteristics) placed the child at the lower limits of Stage II of Tanner's classification (sparse growth of long, slightly darkened, downy straight pubic hair; elevation of the breast and nipple as a small mound with increased diameter of the areolae). The skeletal age was determined by taking X-rays of the hand and wrist using Fels, TW2 and Greulich and Pyle methods. Dental growth was assessed through orthopantomogram using Demirjian's technique. The methods applied were adjusted considering the studies on African population found in the literature, and a skeletal and dental age of 10 years was established. Afterwards, the wrist X-rays performed at the Children's Hospital of Bari, 7 months before our investigation, revealed a skeletal age of 7 years. This evidence showed that, despite the treatment the child had promptly initiated, early puberty had influenced the skeletal growth with an acceleration

  20. Graphical and Demographic Synopsis of the Captive Cohort Method for Estimating Population Age Structure in the Wild

    PubMed Central

    Carey, James R.; Müller, Hans-Georg; Wang, Jane-Ling; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Diamantidis, Alexis; Kouloussis, Nikos

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to complement the literature concerned with the captive cohort method for estimating age structure including (1) graphic techniques to visualize and thus better understand the underlying life table identity in which the age structure of a stationary population equals the time-to-death distribution of the individuals within it; (2) re-derive the basic model for estimating age structure in non-stationary population in demographic rather than statistical notation; and (3) describe a simplified method for estimating changes in the mean age of a wild population. PMID:22776134

  1. Implementation of Subjective Probability Estimates in Army Intelligence Procedures: A Critical Review of Research Findings

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    H. Phelps, Stanley M. Halpin, Edgar M. Johnson, and Franklin L. Moses HUMAN FACTORS TECHNICAL AREA U. S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral...Army Technical Director Commander NOTICES DISTRIBUTION: Primatry distribution of this rewot ha been mode by ARI. PIS.. addrescorrespondence 0O~rniflll...explored by relating the psychological research on the use of subjective probability estimates with the need of Army intelli- gence analysts to

  2. Probe-Specific Procedure to Estimate Sensitivity and Detection Limits for 19F Magnetic Resonance Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Alexander J.; Granwehr, Josef; Lesbats, Clémentine; Krupa, James L.; Six, Joseph S.; Pavlovskaya, Galina E.; Thomas, Neil R.; Auer, Dorothee P.; Meersmann, Thomas; Faas, Henryk M.

    2016-01-01

    Due to low fluorine background signal in vivo, 19F is a good marker to study the fate of exogenous molecules by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using equilibrium nuclear spin polarization schemes. Since 19F MRI applications require high sensitivity, it can be important to assess experimental feasibility during the design stage already by estimating the minimum detectable fluorine concentration. Here we propose a simple method for the calibration of MRI hardware, providing sensitivity estimates for a given scanner and coil configuration. An experimental “calibration factor” to account for variations in coil configuration and hardware set-up is specified. Once it has been determined in a calibration experiment, the sensitivity of an experiment or, alternatively, the minimum number of required spins or the minimum marker concentration can be estimated without the need for a pilot experiment. The definition of this calibration factor is derived based on standard equations for the sensitivity in magnetic resonance, yet the method is not restricted by the limited validity of these equations, since additional instrument-dependent factors are implicitly included during calibration. The method is demonstrated using MR spectroscopy and imaging experiments with different 19F samples, both paramagnetically and susceptibility broadened, to approximate a range of realistic environments. PMID:27727294

  3. Use of maxillary tooth development to estimate age in a group of Hereford cross Friesian steers.

    PubMed

    Andrews, A H

    1981-11-01

    Visual and radiographic examination of maxillary tooth development was undertaken in a group of 76 Hereford cross Friesian steers, all but one slaughtered at the same weight (464 kg). Differences were found in the stages of second molar intraoral development between the various age groups. Radiographic inspection showed that stages of resorption of the temporary premolar roots and crown and root formation of the permanent cheek teeth varied with age. The maximum age range before animals could be differentiated into age groups using radiographic examination of maxillary tooth development was three months (one year from one year three months, one year three months from one year six months, one year four months from one year seven months, one year five months from one year eight months). In the carcase, radiography of the maxillary teeth provided a useful estimate of age. The first two maxillary molars were more advanced in crown and root formation than the permanent premolars. Except for the second permanent premolar all maxillary teeth were less advanced in development than their mandibular counterparts.

  4. Background Interference Procedure: A Means of Assessing Neurologic Dysfunction in School-Age Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kenny, Thomas J.

    1971-01-01

    The Bender Gestalt test incorporating the Background Interference Procedure was administered to three groups of children. The BIP yielded significantly higher scores for the brain damaged group, while the scores of the controls and emotionally disturbed children did not differ. (Author)

  5. Hearing Screening Procedures for Infants and Toddlers, Early Childhood & School Age Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Minnesota State Dept. of Health, St. Paul.

    This manual describes the screening procedures used to identify infants and children in need of further diagnosis and treatment for hearing loss in Minnesota. It is intended for use by Community Health Service agencies, school health programs, Head Start agencies, and voluntary agencies, and should be used as a post-training reference. Newborn…

  6. Composite estimates of physiological stress, age, and diabetes in American Samoans.

    PubMed

    Crews, Douglas E

    2007-07-01

    Composite estimates of physiological stress such as allostatic load (AL) were developed to help assess cumulative impacts of psychosocial and physical stressors on the body. Physiological responses to stress generally accelerate somatic wear-and-tear and chronic degenerative conditions (CDCs). Following McEwen (Neuropsychopharmacology 22 (1999) 108-124) and others, primary physiological mediators of somatic stress responses include glucocorticoids (cortisol), catecholamines (adrenaline and noradrenaline), and serum dihydroepiandosterone-sulfate (DHEA-S). Conversely, blood pressure (BP), serum HDL and total cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and waist/hip (w/h) ratio are modulated by such hormones, thereby acting as secondary mediators of stress response. When these risk factors are aggregated into a composite score, higher stress loads are associated with increased risks for days of school/work missed, functional losses, morbidity, and mortality in US samples. To examine stress loads in American Samoans, data on all 6 secondary mediators along with estimates of body habitus (i.e. height, weight, circumferences, skinfolds) and physiology (i.e. fasting insulin, LDLc, triglycerides, fasting glucose) were measured on 273 individuals residing on Tutuila Island in 1992. Four combinations of these physiological factors were used to determine composite estimates of stress. These were then assessed by sex for associations with age and the presence of diabetes. Composite estimates of stress load were higher in Samoan women than men. Associations with age tended to be low and negative in men, but positive in women, appearing to reflect cultural circumstances and population history. Stress load scores also were higher among those with diabetes than those without among both men and women. These results suggest that composite estimates of stress may be useful for assessing future risks of CDC's and the senescent processes that may underlie them in cross-cultural research.

  7. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy for lithium-ion cells: Test equipment and procedures for aging and fast characterization in time and frequency domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Nils; Weßkamp, Patrick; Haußmann, Peter; Melbert, Joachim; Musch, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    New test equipment and characterization methods for aging investigations on lithium-ion cells for automotive applications are presented in this work. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is a well-established method for cell characterization and analyzing electrochemical processes. In order to integrate this method into long-term aging studies with real driving currents, new test equipment is mandatory. The presented test equipment meets the demands for high current, wide bandwidth and precise measurement. This allows the cells to be cycled and characterized without interruption for changing the test device. The characterization procedures must be of short duration and have a minimum charge-throughput for negligible influence on the aging effect. This work presents new methods in the time and the frequency domain for obtaining the impedance spectrum which allow a flexible trade-off between measurement performance, time consumption and charge-throughput. In addition to sinusoidal waveforms, rectangular, Gaussian and sin(x)/x pulses are applied for EIS. The performance of the different methods is discussed. Finally, the time domain analysis is applied with real driving currents which provides impedance spectra for state of charge estimation considering aging effects in the car.

  8. The Risser sign for forensic age estimation in living individuals: a study of 643 pelvic radiographs.

    PubMed

    Wittschieber, Daniel; Schmeling, Andreas; Schmidt, Sven; Heindel, Walter; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Vieth, Volker

    2013-03-01

    Due to increasing international migratory movements, forensic age estimations of living individuals in criminal proceedings are gaining increasing significance for forensic physicians and radiologists involved in delivering expert opinions. The present study examines the suitability of the radiologically well-known Risser sign grading as a possible new criterion in forensic age diagnostics. For this purpose, anteroposterior pelvic radiographs of 643 patients aged between 10 and 30 years were retrospectively evaluated by means of two different Risser sign grading systems (US and French), each with 5 stages. The left and right sides of the pelvis were assessed separately. The data was analyzed with separation of the sexes. Reliable Risser sign determination was possible in 566 cases. In both sexes, stage 4 of both the US and the French grading systems was predominantly first noted at age 14 years. In the US grading system, stage 5 was also first achieved at age 14 years in the majority of both sexes. In the French grading system, females manifested stage 5 at a minimum of 16 years, whereas in males it was first observed at 17 years. As to the nature of iliac crest maturation, interesting deviations were observed at stages 1 and 5, raising doubts about Risser's ossification process. To conclude, both Risser sign grading systems are suitable for forensic age diagnostics, especially to determine whether the 14th year of life has been completed or not. The French Risser sign system additionally allows for statements as to the completion of the 16th year of age.

  9. Age estimation by dental developmental stages in children and adolescents in Iceland.

    PubMed

    Vidisdottir, Sigridur Rosa; Richter, Svend

    2015-12-01

    Studies have shown that it is necessary to create a database for dental maturity for every population and compare it to others. The present study is the first one for dental development in the Icelandic population the age range being 4-24 years. It will help in forensic dental age estimation and will also help dentists, physicians, anthropologists, archaeologists and other professionals who rely on developmental age assessment in children and adolescents. In this present retrospective cross-sectional study, dental maturity was determined in 1100 Icelandic children and adolescents from orthopantomograms (OPGs). The first 100 were used for a pilot study and the remaining 1000 for the main study. A total of 23 subjects were excluded. The sample consisted of 508 girls and 469 boys from the age of 4-24 years and a dental developmental scoring system was used as a standard for determination of dental maturity stages. A total of 200 OPGs were studied both on the left and right side and the remaining on the right side. Dental maturity was established for all teeth and both genders, when the sample permitted, from the beginning of crown formation to the root apex closure. The Cronbach's Alpha reliability test showed high reliability, R=0.982. Girls in Iceland reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 17.81 years of age for the maxillary and at 18.47 years for the mandibular teeth. Boys reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 18.00 years of age in the maxilla and 17.63 in the mandible. There was no significant difference between left and right side (r=0.95-1.00) and there was no gender difference, except in root formation in maxillary and mandibular canines where girls reached root completed earlier than boys. A reliable database has been established in Iceland for tooth development in the age range of 4-24 years, which is compatible with international studies. These results will help forensic odontologists and other professionals to estimate with

  10. Women Under-estimate the Age of their Partners during Survey Interviews: Implications for HIV Risk associated with Age Mixing in Northern Malawi

    PubMed Central

    Kohler, Hans-Peter; Mkandawire, James

    2011-01-01

    Background Age mixing may explain differences in HIV prevalence across populations in sub-Saharan countries, but the validity of survey data on age mixing is unknown. Methods Age differences between partners are frequently estimated indirectly, by asking respondents to report their partner’s age. Partner age can also be assessed directly, by tracing partners and asking them to report their own age. We use data from 519 relationships, collected in Likoma (Malawi), in which both partners were interviewed and tested for HIV. In these relationships age differences were assessed both indirectly and directly, and estimates could thus be compared. We calculate the specificity and sensitivity of the indirect method in identifying age-homogenous/age-disparate relationships in which the male partner is less/more than 5 or 10 years older than the respondent. Results Women were accurate in identifying age-homogenous relationships, but not in identifying age-disparate relationships (specificity ≈ 90%, sensitivity = 24.3%). The sensitivity of the indirect method was even lower in detecting partners older than the respondent by 10 + years (9.6%). Among 43 relationships with an HIV-infected partner included in this study, there were close to 3 times more age-disparate relationships according to direct measures of partner age than according to women’s reports of their partner’s age (17% vs. 46%). Conclusions Survey reports of partner age significantly under-estimate the extent of and the HIV risk associated with age mixing in this population. Future studies of the impact of sexual mixing pattern son HIV risk in sub-Saharan countries should take reporting biases into account. PMID:21992979

  11. Effect of thermal and irradiation aging simulation procedures on polymer properties

    SciTech Connect

    Bustard, L.D.; Minor, E.; Chenion, J.; Carlin, F.; Alba, C.; Gaussens, G.; LeMeur, M.

    1984-04-01

    Prior to initiating a qualification test on safety-related equipment, the testing sequence for thermal and irradiation aging exposures must be chosen. Likewise, the temperature during irradiation must be selected. Typically, U.S. qualification efforts employ ambient temperature irradiation, while French qualification efforts employ 70/sup 0/C irradiations. For several polymer materials, the influence of the thermal and irradiation aging sequence, as well as the irradiation temperature (ambient versus 70/sup 0/C), has been investigated in preparation for Loss-of-Coolant Accident simulated tests. Ultimate tensile properties at completion of aging are presented for three XLPO and XLPE, five EPR and EPDM, two CSPE (HYPALON), one CPE, one VAMAC, one polydiallylphtalate, and one PPS material. Bend test results at completion of aging are presented for two TEFZEL materials. Permanent set after compression results are presented for three EPR, one VAMAC, one BUNA N, one Silicone, and one Viton material.

  12. Estimating the Ages of Selection Signals from Different Epochs in Human History

    PubMed Central

    Nakagome, Shigeki; Alkorta-Aranburu, Gorka; Amato, Roberto; Howie, Bryan; Peter, Benjamin M.; Hudson, Richard R.; Di Rienzo, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Genetic variation harbors signatures of natural selection driven by selective pressures that are often unknown. Estimating the ages of selection signals may allow reconstructing the history of environmental changes that shaped human phenotypes and diseases. We have developed an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to estimate allele ages under a model of selection on new mutations and under demographic models appropriate for human populations. We have applied it to two resequencing data sets: An ultra-high depth data set from a relatively small sample of unrelated individuals and a lower depth data set in a larger sample with transmission information. In addition to evaluating the accuracy of our method based on simulations, for each SNP, we assessed the consistency between the posterior probabilities estimated by the ABC approach and the ancient DNA record, finding good agreement between the two types of data and methods. Applying this ABC approach to data for eight single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we were able to rule out an onset of selection prior to the dispersal out-of-Africa for three of them and more recent than the spread of agriculture for an additional three SNPs. PMID:26545921

  13. Estimating the age of fire in the Cape flora of South Africa from an orchid phylogeny

    PubMed Central

    Bytebier, Benny; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bellstedt, Dirk U.; Linder, H. Peter

    2011-01-01

    Fire may have been a crucial component in the evolution of the Cape flora of South Africa, a region characterized by outstanding levels of species richness and endemism. However, there is, to date, no critical assessment of the age of the modern fire regime in this biome. Here, we exploit the presence of two obligate post-fire flowering clades in the orchid genus Disa, in conjunction with a robust, well-sampled and dated molecular phylogeny, to estimate the age by which fire must have been present. Our results indicate that summer drought (winter rainfall), the fire regime and the fynbos vegetation are several million years older than currently suggested. Summer drought and the fynbos vegetation are estimated to date back to at least the Early Miocene (ca 19.5 Ma). The current fire regime may have been established during a period of global cooling that followed the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (ca 15 Ma), which led to the expansion of open habitats and increased aridification. The first appearance of Disa species in the grassland biome, as well as in the subalpine habitat, is in striking agreement with reliable geological and palaeontological evidence of the age of these ecosystems, thus corroborating the efficacy of our methods. These results change our understanding of the historical mechanisms underlying botanical evolution in southern Africa, and confirm the potential of using molecular phylogenies to date events for which other information is lacking or inconclusive. PMID:20685712

  14. RESEARCH PAPER: Old stellar population synthesis: new age and mass estimates for Mayall II = G1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jun; de Grijs, Richard; Fan, Zhou; Rey, Soo-Chang; Wu, Zhen-Yu; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jiang-Hua; Jiang, Zhao-Ji; Chen, Jian-Sheng; Lee, Kyungsook; Sohn, Sangmo Tony

    2009-06-01

    Mayall II = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters (GCs) in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKS 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000 Å. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population (SSP) models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ~1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates (of order 107 Modot) indicate that G1 is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster's exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, (1.65±0.63) × 102 Lodot far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.

  15. Estimation of paleotemperature from racemization of aspartic acid in combination with radiocarbon age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minami, Masayo; Takeyama, Masami; Mimura, Koichi; Nakamura, Toshio

    2007-06-01

    We tried to estimate paleotemperatures from two chosen fossils by measuring D/L aspartic acid ratios and radiocarbon ages of the XAD-2-treated hydrolysate fractions in the fossils. The D/L aspartic acid ratio was measured with a gas chromatograph and radiocarbon dating was performed using a Tandetron AMS system at Nagoya University. The radiocarbon age of a fossil mammoth molar collected from Bykovsky Peninsula, eastern Siberia, was found to be 35,170 ± 300 BP as an average value for the XAD-treated hydrolysate fractions. The aspartic acid in the mammoth molar showed a little evidence of racemization, which might be due to in vivo racemization during the lifetime and then suggests negligible or no postmortem racemization during burial in permafrost. From four animal bone fossils collected from a shell mound excavated at the Awazu submarine archeological site in Lake Biwa, Shiga, Japan, the racemization-based effective mean temperature was calculated to be 15-16 °C using the D/L aspartic acid ratio of about 0.11 and the 14C age of 4500 BP for the XAD-2-treated hydrolysate fractions in the fossils. The average annual temperature was estimated to be 11-12 °C, which approximates to the temperature that the fossils experienced during burial at the site. Although the application of racemization ratios in fossils as paleotemperature indicators is surrounded with many difficulties, the results obtained in this study suggest its feasibility.

  16. Estimating the age of fire in the Cape flora of South Africa from an orchid phylogeny.

    PubMed

    Bytebier, Benny; Antonelli, Alexandre; Bellstedt, Dirk U; Linder, H Peter

    2011-01-22

    Fire may have been a crucial component in the evolution of the Cape flora of South Africa, a region characterized by outstanding levels of species richness and endemism. However, there is, to date, no critical assessment of the age of the modern fire regime in this biome. Here, we exploit the presence of two obligate post-fire flowering clades in the orchid genus Disa, in conjunction with a robust, well-sampled and dated molecular phylogeny, to estimate the age by which fire must have been present. Our results indicate that summer drought (winter rainfall), the fire regime and the fynbos vegetation are several million years older than currently suggested. Summer drought and the fynbos vegetation are estimated to date back to at least the Early Miocene (ca 19.5 Ma). The current fire regime may have been established during a period of global cooling that followed the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (ca 15 Ma), which led to the expansion of open habitats and increased aridification. The first appearance of Disa species in the grassland biome, as well as in the subalpine habitat, is in striking agreement with reliable geological and palaeontological evidence of the age of these ecosystems, thus corroborating the efficacy of our methods. These results change our understanding of the historical mechanisms underlying botanical evolution in southern Africa, and confirm the potential of using molecular phylogenies to date events for which other information is lacking or inconclusive.

  17. Estimating Modifying Effect of Age on Genetic and Environmental Variance Components in Twin Models

    PubMed Central

    He, Liang; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko; Pitkäniemi, Janne

    2016-01-01

    Twin studies have been adopted for decades to disentangle the relative genetic and environmental contributions for a wide range of traits. However, heritability estimation based on the classical twin models does not take into account dynamic behavior of the variance components over age. Varying variance of the genetic component over age can imply the existence of gene–environment (G × E) interactions that general genome-wide association studies (GWAS) fail to capture, which may lead to the inconsistency of heritability estimates between twin design and GWAS. Existing parametric G × E interaction models for twin studies are limited by assuming a linear or quadratic form of the variance curves with respect to a moderator that can, however, be overly restricted in reality. Here we propose spline-based approaches to explore the variance curves of the genetic and environmental components. We choose the additive genetic, common, and unique environmental variance components (ACE) model as the starting point. We treat the component variances as variance functions with respect to age modeled by B-splines or P-splines. We develop an empirical Bayes method to estimate the variance curves together with their confidence bands and provide an R package for public use. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately capture dynamic behavior of the component variances in terms of mean square errors with a data set of >10,000 twin pairs. Using the proposed methods as an alternative and major extension to the classical twin models, our analyses with a large-scale Finnish twin data set (19,510 MZ twins and 27,312 DZ same-sex twins) discover that the variances of the A, C, and E components for body mass index (BMI) change substantially across life span in different patterns and the heritability of BMI drops to ∼50% after middle age. The results further indicate that the decline of heritability is due to increasing unique environmental variance, which provides

  18. Estimation of the stapes-bone thickness in the stapedotomy surgical procedure using a machine-learning technique.

    PubMed

    Kaburlasos, V G; Petridis, V; Brett, P N; Baker, D A

    1999-12-01

    Stapedotomy is a surgical procedure aimed at the treatment of hearing impairment due to otosclerosis. The treatment consists of drilling a hole through the stapes bone in the inner ear in order to insert a prosthesis. Safety precautions require knowledge of the nonmeasurable stapes thickness. The technical goal herein has been the design of high-level controls for an intelligent mechatronics drilling tool in order to enable the estimation of stapes thickness from measurable drilling data. The goal has been met by learning a map between drilling features, hence no model of the physical system has been necessary. Learning has been achieved as explained in this paper by a scheme, namely the d-sigma Fuzzy Lattice Neurocomputing (d sigma-FLN) scheme for classification, within the framework of fuzzy lattices. The successful application of the d sigma-FLN scheme is demonstrated in estimating the thickness of a stapes bone "on-line" using drilling data obtained experimentally in the laboratory.

  19. A simple procedure for estimating pseudo risk ratios from exposure to non-carcinogenic chemical mixtures.

    PubMed

    Scinicariello, Franco; Portier, Christopher

    2016-03-01

    Non-cancer risk assessment traditionally assumes a threshold of effect, below which there is a negligible risk of an adverse effect. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry derives health-based guidance values known as Minimal Risk Levels (MRLs) as estimates of the toxicity threshold for non-carcinogens. Although the definition of an MRL, as well as EPA reference dose values (RfD and RfC), is a level that corresponds to "negligible risk," they represent daily exposure doses or concentrations, not risks. We present a new approach to calculate the risk at exposure to specific doses for chemical mixtures, the assumption in this approach is to assign de minimis risk at the MRL. The assigned risk enables the estimation of parameters in an exponential model, providing a complete dose-response curve for each compound from the chosen point of departure to zero. We estimated parameters for 27 chemicals. The value of k, which determines the shape of the dose-response curve, was moderately insensitive to the choice of the risk at the MRL. The approach presented here allows for the calculation of a risk from a single substance or the combined risk from multiple chemical exposures in a community. The methodology is applicable from point of departure data derived from quantal data, such as data from benchmark dose analyses or from data that can be transformed into probabilities, such as lowest-observed-adverse-effect level. The individual risks are used to calculate risk ratios that can facilitate comparison and cost-benefit analyses of environmental contamination control strategies.

  20. Technical note: A procedure to estimate glucose requirements of an activated immune system in steers.

    PubMed

    Kvidera, S K; Horst, E A; Abuajamieh, M; Mayorga, E J; Sanz Fernandez, M V; Baumgard, L H

    2016-11-01

    Infection and inflammation impede efficient animal productivity. The activated immune system ostensibly requires large amounts of energy and nutrients otherwise destined for synthesis of agriculturally relevant products. Accurately determining the immune system's in vivo energy needs is difficult, but a better understanding may facilitate developing nutritional strategies to maximize productivity. The study objective was to estimate immune system glucose requirements following an i.v. lipopolysaccharide (LPS) challenge. Holstein steers (148 ± 9 kg; = 15) were jugular catheterized bilaterally and assigned to 1 of 3 i.v.

  1. Contrast medium administration in the elderly patient: is advancing age an independent risk factor for contrast nephropathy after angiographic procedures?

    PubMed

    Detrenis, Simona; Meschi, Michele; Bertolini, Laura; Savazzi, Giorgio

    2007-02-01

    Contrast medium-induced nephropathy (CMIN) is the third leading cause of hospital-acquired acute renal dysfunction. Even if the number of patients over 75 years of age undergoing diagnostic and/or interventional procedures and requiring administration of contrast medium (CM) is growing constantly, at present there is no definitive consensus regarding the role of advancing age and related morphologic or functional renal changes as an independent risk factor for CMIN. The authors review the evidence from recent medical literature on the definition, pathophysiology, and clinical presentation of CMIN as well as therapeutic approaches to its prophylaxis. Attention is focused on advancing age as a preexisting physiologic condition that is, per se, able to predispose the patient to CM-induced renal impairment, assuming that every elderly patient is potentially at risk for CMIN.

  2. Analysis of Inverse Modelling Procedures For The Estimation of Parameters Controlling Macropore Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roulier, S.; Jarvis, N.

    Because they are objective, reproducible, and unambiguous, inverse modelling pro- cedures are increasingly used to identify water flow and solute transport parameters. This study focused on the development and testing of inverse methods to estimate transfer parameters in simulation models which account for rapid non-equilibrium flow in soil macropores. The dual-porosity/dual-permeability model of water flow and solute transport MACRO was linked with the inverse modelling package SUFI. The Bayesian approach followed by SUFI is stable, converging, and is not affected by the usual issues of initial values and local minima. A theoretical study was carried out using the combined tool SUFI/MACRO to assess data requirements for robust param- eter estimation in macropore flow models. Generated "dummy" data were used for this purpose, representing transient state leaching experiments for tracers and pesticides in small soil columns (20 cm height). General issues related to inverse modelling, such as internal correlation and sensitivity, were investigated. Attention was also focused on the significance of experimental and model errors, the degree of macropore flow in the system, and the availability of resident and flux concentrations. The study showed reliable results, especially in the case of strong macropore flow, but both resident and flux concentrations were needed. Errors (up to 30% for the pesticide concentrations) did not affect the robustness of the tool. SUFI linked to MACRO appeared thus to be well suited for global optimisation of the system parameters in soils affected by macropore flow.

  3. Ra isotopes in trees: Their application to the estimation of heartwood growth rates and tree ages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, Gary J.; Murray, Andrew S.; Brunskill, Gregg J.; Argent, Robert M.

    2006-12-01

    The difficulty in estimating growth rates and ages of tropical and warm-temperate tree species is well known. However, this information has many important environmental applications, including the proper management of native forests and calculating uptake and release of atmospheric carbon. We report the activities of Ra isotopes in the heartwood, sapwood and leaves of six tree species, and use the radial distribution of the 228Ra/226Ra activity ratio in the stem of the tree to estimate the rate of accretion of heartwood. A model is presented in which dissolved Ra in groundwater is taken up by tree roots, translocated to sapwood in a chemically mobile (ion-exchangeable) form, and rendered immobile as it is transferred to heartwood. Uptake of 232Th and 230Th (the parents of 228Ra and 226Ra) is negligible. The rate of heartwood accretion is determined from the radioactive decay of 228Ra (half-life 5.8 years) relative to long-lived 226Ra (half-life 1600 years), and is relevant to growth periods of up to 50 years. By extrapolating the heartwood accretion rate to the entire tree ring record the method also appears to provide realistic estimates of tree age. Eight trees were studied (three of known age, 72, 66 and 35 years), including three Australian hardwood eucalypt species, two mangrove species, and a softwood pine (P. radiata). The method indicates that the rate of growth ring formation is species and climate dependent, varying from 0.7 rings yr-1 for a river red gum (E. camaldulensis) to around 3 rings yr-1 for a tropical mangrove (X. mekongensis).

  4. Estimation of gestational age, using neonatal anthropometry: a cross-sectional study in India.

    PubMed

    Thawani, Rajat; Dewan, Pooja; Faridi, M M A; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

    2013-12-01

    Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R = 0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R = 0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks) = 5.437 x W-0.781 x W(2) + 2.815 x HC-0.041 x HC(2) + 0.285 x MUAC-22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R = 0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46

  5. Estimating conception statistics using gestational age information from NHS Numbers for Babies data.

    PubMed

    Chow, Yuan Huang; Dattani, Nirupa

    2009-01-01

    Conception statistics routinely published for England and Wales include pregnancies that result in one or more live- or stillbirths (a maternity) or an abortion. All live births are assumed to be 38 weeks gestation as information on gestation is not collected at birth registration. For the first time, gestational age information from the National Health Service (NHS) Numbers for Babies (NN4B) data has been used to re-estimate conception statistics for 2005. This shows that 72 per cent of conceptions leading to a maternity in fact have a gestati on period that differs from 38 weeks and most of these fall at either 37 or 39 weeks. The age-specific conception rates using this revised method are not significantly different to those produced using the current method.

  6. The research on aging failure rate and optimization estimation of protective relay under haze conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying-kang; Zhou, Meng-ran; Yang, Jie; Zhou, Pei-qiang; Xie, Ying

    2017-01-01

    In the fog and haze, the air contains large amounts of H2S, SO2, SO3 and other acids, air conductivity is greatly improved, the relative humidity is also greatly increased, Power transmission lines and electrical equipment in such an environment will increase in the long-running failure ratedecrease the sensitivity of the detection equipment, impact protection device reliability. Weibull distribution is widely used in component failure distribution fitting. It proposes a protection device aging failure rate estimation method based on the least squares method and the iterative method,.Combined with a regional power grid statistics, computing protective equipment failure rate function. Binding characteristics of electrical equipment operation status under haze conditions, optimization methods, get more in line with aging protection equipment failure under conditions of haze characteristics.

  7. Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity Calculated from Age and Mean Arterial Blood Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Greve, Sara V.; Laurent, Stephan; Olsen, Michael H.

    2017-01-01

    In a recently published paper, Greve et al [J Hypertens 2016;34:1279-1289] investigate whether the estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (ePWV), calculated using an equation derived from the relationship between carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), age, and blood pressure, predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) as good as the measured cfPWV. Because ePWV predicts CVD as good as cfPWV, some might wonder whether ePWV could be replaced by cfPWV, which is a time-consuming measurement requiring an expensive apparatus. This question is addressed in this mini-review. PMID:28229052

  8. Estimation of the age at onset in spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 Cuban patients by survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Almaguer-Mederos, L E; Falcón, N S; Almira, Y R; Zaldivar, Y G; Almarales, D C; Góngora, E M; Herrera, M P; Batallán, K E; Armiñán, R R; Manresa, M V; Cruz, G S; Laffita-Mesa, J; Cyuz, T M; Chang, V; Auburger, G; Gispert, S; Pérez, L V

    2010-08-01

    Previous studies have investigated the close association that exists between CAG repeat number and the age at onset in SCA2 = spinocerebellar ataxia type 2. These studies have focused on affected individuals. To further characterize this association and estimate the risk of a carrier developing SCA2 at a particular age as a function of a specific CAG repeat size, we have analyzed a large group of 924 individuals, including 394 presymptomatic and 530 affected individuals with a CAG repeat length of 32-79 units. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we obtained cumulative probability curves for disease manifestation at a particular age for each CAG repeat length in the 34-45 range. These curves were significantly different (p < 0.001) and showed small overlap. All these information may be very valuable in predictive-testing programs, in the planning of studies for the identification of other genetic and environmental factors as modifiers of age at onset, and in the design of clinical trials for people at enlarged risk for SCA2.

  9. How old are you? Genet age estimates in a clonal animal.

    PubMed

    Devlin-Durante, M K; Miller, M W; Precht, W F; Baums, I B

    2016-11-01

    Foundation species such as redwoods, seagrasses and corals are often long-lived and clonal. Genets may consist of hundreds of members (ramets) and originated hundreds to thousands of years ago. As climate change and other stressors exert selection pressure on species, the demography of populations changes. Yet, because size does not indicate age in clonal organisms, demographic models are missing data necessary to predict the resilience of many foundation species. Here, we correlate somatic mutations with genet age of corals and provide the first, preliminary estimates of genet age in a colonial animal. We observed somatic mutations at five microsatellite loci in rangewide samples of the endangered coral, Acropora palmata (n = 3352). Colonies harboured 342 unique mutations in 147 genets. Genet age ranged from 30 to 838 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.195(-04) per locus per year based on colony growth rates and 236 to 6500 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.542(-05) per locus per year based on sea level changes to habitat availability. Long-lived A. palmata genets imply a large capacity to tolerate past environmental change, and yet recent mass mortality events in A. palmata suggest that capacity is now being frequently exceeded.

  10. Age estimation in forensic sciences: Application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Alkass, K; Buchholz, B A; Ohtani, S; Yamamoto, T; Druid, H; Spalding, S L

    2009-11-02

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster, since the age at death, birth date and year of death, as well as gender, can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this paper we analyze teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that above-ground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) which have been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel and ten of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2=0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 0.6 {+-} 04 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 {+-} 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  11. Age estimation in forensic sciences: application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis.

    PubMed

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L

    2010-05-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ((14)C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R(2) = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 +/- 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 +/- 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  12. Data Processing Procedures and Methodology for Estimating Trip Distances for the 1995 American Travel Survey (ATS)

    SciTech Connect

    Hwang, H.-L.; Rollow, J.

    2000-05-01

    The 1995 American Travel Survey (ATS) collected information from approximately 80,000 U.S. households about their long distance travel (one-way trips of 100 miles or more) during the year of 1995. It is the most comprehensive survey of where, why, and how U.S. residents travel since 1977. ATS is a joint effort by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Census (Census); BTS provided the funding and supervision of the project, and Census selected the samples, conducted interviews, and processed the data. This report documents the technical support for the ATS provided by the Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), which included the estimation of trip distances as well as data quality editing and checking of variables required for the distance calculations.

  13. Estimating the Deformability and Strength of Rock Masses - In-Situ Tests, and Related Procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Heuze, F E

    2003-06-01

    This report was prepared for presentation at the STRATCOM Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) meeting held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, May 21, 2003. It discusses the methods that can be used to estimate the mechanical properties of rock masses, such as deformability and strength. Special emphasis is put on the fact that rock mass properties are subject to an effect of scale, i.e. the properties measured on laboratory-scale samples are not representative of in-situ properties because of the presence of geologic discontinuities. This information is relevant to the planning of new field tests to assess the effects of explosions in the ground that are part of the on-going ACTD.

  14. Rapid, cost-effective estimation of groundwater age based on hydrochemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beyer, M.; Morgenstern, U.; Jackson, B. M.; Daughney, C.

    2013-12-01

    aquifer. This relation can then be used in the same or similar aquifer to infer groundwater age from given hydrochemistry. Secondly specific reaction rates of underlying reactions, such as quartz dissolution, can be determined and used to determine specific and ';generic' reaction rates for field environments. We postulate this may in future lead to groundwater dating directly from specific hydrochemistry data in any given aquifer by using ';generic' kinetics. To illustrate these two approaches, regularly measured hydrochemistry data and estimates of groundwater age inferred from tritium, SF6 and CFC-12 within the Lower Hutt Groundwater Zone, a gravel aquifer in Wellington, New Zealand, are used. Correlations of hydrochemistry parameters and groundwater age are presented. Hierarchical Cluster and Factor Analysis are used to investigate major processes which caused the given hydrochemistry. Inverse modelling is used to identify specific underlying reactions, such as weathering of quartz. Reaction kinetics are investigated and results presented.

  15. It takes nine days to iron a shirt: the development of cognitive estimation skills in school age children.

    PubMed

    Harel, Brian T; Cillessen, Antonius H N; Fein, Deborah A; Bullard, Sarah E; Aviv, Alyson

    2007-07-01

    Data are presented for 315 elementary school-aged children (K-11) who took the Biber Cognitive Estimation Test, a 20-item test with five estimation questions in each of four domains: quantity, time/duration, weight, and distance/length. Performance showed significant development yearly until around the age of nine years, with much slower development subsequently. No gender effects were found. Age and fund of knowledge correlated with overall test performance. Fund of information accounted for a large proportion of the variance in estimation skills for children 8 years and under, but not for children 9 years and older. Since estimation skills require retrieval and manipulation of relevant knowledge and inhibition of impulsive responding and are necessary in many everyday tasks, it was anticipated that this test may provide a useful measure of judgment and estimations and may correlate with other executive skills in school-aged children.

  16. Radii, masses, and ages of 18 bright stars using interferometry and new estimations of exoplanetary parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligi, R.; Creevey, O.; Mourard, D.; Crida, A.; Lagrange, A.-M.; Nardetto, N.; Perraut, K.; Schultheis, M.; Tallon-Bosc, I.; ten Brummelaar, T.

    2016-02-01

    Context. Accurate stellar parameters are needed in numerous domains of astrophysics. The position of stars on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram is an important indication of their structure and evolution, and it helps improve stellar models. Furthermore, the age and mass of stars hosting planets are required elements for studying exoplanetary systems. Aims: We aim at determining accurate parameters of a set of 18 bright exoplanet host and potential host stars from interferometric measurements, photometry, and stellar models. Methods: Using the VEGA/CHARA interferometer operating in the visible domain, we measured the angular diameters of 18 stars, ten of which host exoplanets. We combined them with their distances to estimate their radii. We used photometry to derive their bolometric flux and, then, their effective temperature and luminosity to place them on the H-R diagram. We then used the PARSEC models to derive their best fit ages and masses, with error bars derived from Monte Carlo calculations. Results: Our interferometric measurements lead to an average of 1.9% uncertainty on angular diameters and 3% on stellar radii. There is good agreement between measured and indirect estimations of angular diameters (either from SED fitting or from surface brightness relations) for main sequence (MS) stars, but not as good for more evolved stars. For each star, we provide a likelihood map in the mass-age plane; typically, two distinct sets of solutions appear (an old and a young age). The errors on the ages and masses that we provide account for the metallicity uncertainties, which are often neglected by other works. From measurements of its radius and density, we also provide the mass of 55 Cnc independently of models. From the stellar masses, we provide new estimates of semi-major axes and minimum masses of exoplanets with reliable uncertainties. We also derive the radius, density, and mass of 55 Cnc e, a super-Earth that transits its stellar host. Our exoplanetary

  17. Simulator Sickness During Emergency Procedures Training in a Helicopter Simulator: Age, Flight Experience, and Amount Learned

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-09-01

    drivers are more susceptible than male drivers" (Hein, p. 610). Age. Walt Disney World’s "Mission: Space" thrill ride left some older riders gulping...since those with more flight hrs naturally tend to fall into older age groups. (McGuinness et al., 1981, p. 25) 3. The SS symptoms reported by the...symptomatology and are useful for determining the pattern of discomfort produced by a given simulator. All scores have as their lowest level a natural zero (no

  18. Estimation of land surface evapotranspiration with A satellite remote sensing procedure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irmak, A.; Ratcliffe, I.; Ranade, P.; Hubbard, K.G.; Singh, R.K.; Kamble, B.; Kjaersgaard, J.

    2011-01-01

    There are various methods available for estimating magnitude and trends of evapotranspiration. Bowen ratio energy balance system and eddy correlation techniques offer powerful alternatives for measuring land surface evapotranspiration. In spite of the elegance, high accuracy, and theoretical attractions of these techniques for measuring evapotranspiration, their practical use over large areas can be limited due to the number of sites needed and the related expense. Application of evapotranspiration mapping from satellite measurements can overcome the limitations. The objective of this study was to utilize the METRICTM (Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution using Internalized Calibration) model in Great Plains environmental settings to understand water use in managed ecosystems on a regional scale. We investigated spatiotemporal distribution of a fraction of reference evapotranspiration (ETrF) using eight Landsat 5 images during the 2005 and 2006 growing season for path 29, row 32. The ETrF maps generated by METRICTM allowed us to follow the magnitude and trend in ETrF for major land-use classes during the growing season. The ETrF was lower early in the growing season for agricultural crops and gradually increased as the normalized difference vegetation index of crops increased, thus presenting more surface area over which water could transpire toward the midseason. Comparison of predictions with Bowen ratio energy balance system measurements at Clay Center, NE, showed that METRICTM performed well at the field scale for predicting evapotranspiration from a cornfield. If calibrated properly, the model could be a viable tool to estimate water use in managed ecosystems in subhumid climates at a large scale.

  19. Analysis of age-at-death estimation using data from a new, modern autopsy sample--part I: pubic bone.

    PubMed

    Hartnett, Kristen M

    2010-09-01

    This research tests the accuracy of age estimation from the pubic bone. Specimens were collected from decedents of known age, sex, and race at the Forensic Science Center (FSC) in Phoenix, Arizona. The collection consists of pubic bones and fourth rib ends from 419 males and 211 females, ranging in age from 18 to 99. Age-at-death was estimated by three observers using the Suchey-Brooks method. The correlation results indicate that there are significant differences in the observed versus actual ages (r = 0.68169, p < 0.001) and that there are significant interobserver differences. No significant differences were found in the intra-observer tests. The FSC pubic bones were sorted based on morphology without knowing age. New descriptions and age ranges were created. A phase seven was described and is comprised of males and females over 70 years of age-at-death.

  20. 40 CFR Appendix Viii to Part 86 - Aging Bench Equipment and Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... injection at the inlet face of the catalyst. a. The EPA standard aging bench consists of an engine, engine... dynamometer, or a burner that provides the correct exhaust conditions), as long as the catalyst inlet... appendix. If the bench has more than one exhaust stream, multiple catalyst systems may be...

  1. 40 CFR Appendix Viii to Part 86 - Aging Bench Equipment and Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... injection at the inlet face of the catalyst. a. The EPA standard aging bench consists of an engine, engine... dynamometer, or a burner that provides the correct exhaust conditions), as long as the catalyst inlet... appendix. If the bench has more than one exhaust stream, multiple catalyst systems may be...

  2. 40 CFR Appendix Viii to Part 86 - Aging Bench Equipment and Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... injection at the inlet face of the catalyst. a. The EPA standard aging bench consists of an engine, engine... dynamometer, or a burner that provides the correct exhaust conditions), as long as the catalyst inlet... appendix. If the bench has more than one exhaust stream, multiple catalyst systems may be...

  3. 40 CFR Appendix Viii to Part 86 - Aging Bench Equipment and Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... injection at the inlet face of the catalyst. a. The EPA standard aging bench consists of an engine, engine... dynamometer, or a burner that provides the correct exhaust conditions), as long as the catalyst inlet... appendix. If the bench has more than one exhaust stream, multiple catalyst systems may be...

  4. 40 CFR Appendix Viii to Part 86 - Aging Bench Equipment and Procedures

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... injection at the inlet face of the catalyst. a. The EPA standard aging bench consists of an engine, engine... dynamometer, or a burner that provides the correct exhaust conditions), as long as the catalyst inlet... appendix. If the bench has more than one exhaust stream, multiple catalyst systems may be...

  5. Society for Vascular Surgery (SVS) Vascular Registry evaluation of comparative effectiveness of carotid revascularization procedures stratified by Medicare age

    PubMed Central

    Jim, Jeffrey; Rubin, Brian G.; Ricotta, Joseph J.; Kenwood, Christopher T.; Siami, Flora S.; Sicard, Gregorio A.

    2017-01-01

    Objective Recent randomized controlled trials have shown that age significantly affects the outcome of carotid revascularization procedures. This study used data from the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Registry (VR) to report the influence of age on the comparative effectiveness of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS). Methods VR collects provider-reported data on patients using a Web-based database. Patients were stratified by age and symptoms. The primary end point was the composite outcome of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction (MI) at 30 days. Results As of December 7, 2010, there were 1347 CEA and 861 CAS patients aged <65 years and 4169 CEA and 2536 CAS patients aged ≥65 years. CAS patients in both age groups were more likely to have a disease etiology of radiation or restenosis, be symptomatic, and have more cardiac comorbidities. In patients aged <65 years, the primary end point (5.23% CAS vs 3.56% CEA; P = .065) did not reach statistical significance. Subgroup analyses showed that CAS had a higher combined death/stroke/MI rate (4.44% vs 2.10%; P < .031) in asymptomatic patients but there was no difference in the symptomatic (6.00% vs 5.47%; P = .79) group. In patients aged ≥65 years, CEA had lower rates of death (0.91% vs 1.97%; P < .01), stroke (2.52% vs 4.89%; P < .01), and composite death/stroke/MI (4.27% vs 7.14%; P < .01). CEA in patients aged ≥65 years was associated with lower rates of the primary end point in symptomatic (5.27% vs 9.52%; P < .01) and asymptomatic (3.31% vs 5.27%; P < .01) subgroups. After risk adjustment, CAS patients aged ≥65 years were more likely to reach the primary end point. Conclusions Compared with CEA, CAS resulted in inferior 30-day outcomes in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients aged ≥65 years. These findings do not support the widespread use of CAS in patients aged ≥65 years. PMID:22459755

  6. Mesothelioma in a wine cellar man: detailed description of working procedures and past asbestos exposure estimation.

    PubMed

    Nemo, Alessandro; Silvestri, Stefano

    2014-11-01

    A pleural mesothelioma arose in an employee of a wine farm whose work history shows an unusual occupational exposure to asbestos. The information, gathered directly from the case and from a work colleague, clarifies some aspects of the use of asbestos in the process of winemaking which has not been previously reported in such details. The man had worked as a winemaker from 1960 to 1988 in a farm, which in those years produced around 2500 hectoliters of wine per year, mostly white. The wine was filtered to remove impurities; the filter was created by dispersing in the wine asbestos fibers followed by diatomite while the wine was circulating several times and clogging a prefilter made of a dense stainless steel net. Chrysotile asbestos was the sole asbestos mineralogical variety used in these filters and exposure could occur during the phase of mixing dry fibers in the wine and during the filter replacement. A daily and annual time weighted average level of exposure and cumulative dose have been estimated in the absence of airborne asbestos fiber monitoring performed in that workplace. Since 1993, the Italian National Mesothelioma Register, an epidemiological surveillance system, has recorded eight cases with at least one work period spent as winemaker. Four of them never used asbestos filters and presented exposures during other work periods, the other four used asbestos filters but had also other exposures in other industrial divisions. For the information hitherto available, this is the first mesothelioma case with exclusive exposure in the job of winemaking.

  7. Constraints on LISA Pathfinder’s self-gravity: design requirements, estimates and testing procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armano, M.; Audley, H.; Auger, G.; Baird, J.; Binetruy, P.; Born, M.; Bortoluzzi, D.; Brandt, N.; Bursi, A.; Caleno, M.; Cavalleri, A.; Cesarini, A.; Cruise, M.; Danzmann, K.; de Deus Silva, M.; Desiderio, D.; Piersanti, E.; Diepholz, I.; Dolesi, R.; Dunbar, N.; Ferraioli, L.; Ferroni, V.; Fitzsimons, E.; Flatscher, R.; Freschi, M.; Gallegos, J.; García Marirrodriga, C.; Gerndt, R.; Gesa, L.; Gibert, F.; Giardini, D.; Giusteri, R.; Grimani, C.; Grzymisch, J.; Harrison, I.; Heinzel, G.; Hewitson, M.; Hollington, D.; Hueller, M.; Huesler, J.; Inchauspé, H.; Jennrich, O.; Jetzer, P.; Johlander, B.; Karnesis, N.; Kaune, B.; Korsakova, N.; Killow, C.; Lloro, I.; Liu, L.; López-Zaragoza, J. P.; Maarschalkerweerd, R.; Madden, S.; Mance, D.; Martín, V.; Martin-Polo, L.; Martino, J.; Martin-Porqueras, F.; Mateos, I.; McNamara, P. W.; Mendes, J.; Mendes, L.; Moroni, A.; Nofrarias, M.; Paczkowski, S.; Perreur-Lloyd, M.; Petiteau, A.; Pivato, P.; Plagnol, E.; Prat, P.; Ragnit, U.; Ramos-Castro, J.; Reiche, J.; Romera Perez, J. A.; Robertson, D.; Rozemeijer, H.; Rivas, F.; Russano, G.; Sarra, P.; Schleicher, A.; Slutsky, J.; Sopuerta, C. F.; Sumner, T.; Texier, D.; Thorpe, J. I.; Tomlinson, R.; Trenkel, C.; Vetrugno, D.; Vitale, S.; Wanner, G.; Ward, H.; Warren, C.; Wass, P. J.; Wealthy, D.; Weber, W. J.; Wittchen, A.; Zanoni, C.; Ziegler, T.; Zweifel, P.

    2016-12-01

    LISA Pathfinder satellite was launched on 3 December 2015 toward the Sun-Earth first Lagrangian point (L1) where the LISA Technology Package (LTP), which is the main science payload, will be tested. LTP achieves measurements of differential acceleration of free-falling test masses (TMs) with sensitivity below 3× {10}-14 {{m}} {{{s}}}-2 {{Hz}}-1/2 within the 1-30 mHz frequency band in one-dimension. The spacecraft itself is responsible for the dominant differential gravitational field acting on the two TMs. Such a force interaction could contribute a significant amount of noise and thus threaten the achievement of the targeted free-fall level. We prevented this by balancing the gravitational forces to the sub nm s-2 level, guided by a protocol based on measurements of the position and the mass of all parts that constitute the satellite, via finite element calculation tool estimates. In this paper, we will introduce the gravitational balance requirements and design, and then discuss our predictions for the balance that will be achieved in flight.

  8. SPSS and SAS procedures for estimating indirect effects in simple mediation models.

    PubMed

    Preacher, Kristopher J; Hayes, Andrew F

    2004-11-01

    Researchers often conduct mediation analysis in order to indirectly assess the effect of a proposed cause on some outcome through a proposed mediator. The utility of mediation analysis stems from its ability to go beyond the merely descriptive to a more functional understanding of the relationships among variables. A necessary component of mediation is a statistically and practically significant indirect effect. Although mediation hypotheses are frequently explored in psychological research, formal significance tests of indirect effects are rarely conducted. After a brief overview of mediation, we argue the importance of directly testing the significance of indirect effects and provide SPSS and SAS macros that facilitate estimation of the indirect effect with a normal theory approach and a bootstrap approach to obtaining confidence intervals, as well as the traditional approach advocated by Baron and Kenny (1986). We hope that this discussion and the macros will enhance the frequency of formal mediation tests in the psychology literature. Electronic copies of these macros may be downloaded from the Psychonomic Society's Web archive at www.psychonomic.org/archive/.

  9. Evaluation of an immunoextraction procedure for the estimation of free thyroxine concentration

    SciTech Connect

    Witherspoon, L.R.; Shuler, S.E.; Gilbert, S.S.

    1984-02-01

    The authors have examined the performance of a commercial free-thyroxine assay in which a radiolabeled T/sub 4/ derivative permits the competitive quantitation of extracted T/sub 4/ in the presence of serum proteins. After the total T/sub 4/ pool had been radiolabeled with either I-125 T/sub 4/ or I-131 T/sub 4/, the solid-phase antibody was found to be associated with 4-8% of the total T/sub 4/ present in the assay tube. Of this, 15-60% was displaceable (antibody-bound). The assay estimated free T/sub 4/ to be 0.6-1.8 ng/dl in euthyroid patients, and distinguished them from hyperthyroid (sensitivity 91%) and hypothyroid patients (sensitivity 91%) without apparent TBG dependence. In patients with severe nonthyroidal illnesses, the assay correctly quantitated a reduced extracted mass in some. In other patients, however, the assay results were inappropriately lower than the actual extracted mass, in agreement with the FTI but not with the measurements of free T/sub 4/ by dialysis. This assay appears to produce clinically appropriate results in most patients. In some nonthyroidally ill patients however, the indicated free T/sub 4/ is spuriously low.

  10. Dental age estimation in the living after completion of third molar mineralization: new data for Gustafson's criteria.

    PubMed

    Timme, M; Timme, W H; Olze, A; Ottow, C; Ribbecke, S; Pfeiffer, H; Dettmeyer, R; Schmeling, A

    2017-03-01

    There is a need for dental age estimation methods after completion of the third molar mineralization. Degenerative dental characteristics appear to be suitable for forensic age diagnostics beyond the 18th year of life. In 2012, Olze et al. investigated the criteria studied by Gustafson using orthopantomograms. The objective of this study was to prove the applicability and reliability of this method with a large cohort and a wide age range, including older individuals. For this purpose, 2346 orthopantomograms of 1167 female and 1179 male Germans aged 15 to 70 years were reviewed. The characteristics of secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition were evaluated in all the mandibular premolars. The correlation of the individual characteristics with the chronological age was examined by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, in which the chronological age formed the dependent variable. Following those results, R (2) values amounted to 0.73 to 0.8; the standard error of estimate was 6.8 to 8.2 years. Fundamentally, the recommendation for conducting age estimations in the living by these methods can be shared. The values for the quality of the regression are, however, not precise enough for a reliable age estimation around regular retirement date ages. More precise regression formulae for the age group of 15 to 40 years of life are separately presented in this study. Further research should investigate the influence of ethnicity, dietary habits and modern health care on the degenerative characteristics in question.

  11. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study

    PubMed Central

    Priyadharshini, K. Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B.; Mohanbabu, V.; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A–H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. Materials and Methods: A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P < 0.05 was considered as the level of significance. Results: The results showed that the mean age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P < 0.05). Conclusion: There are differences indicating that maxillary and mandibular third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization. PMID:25984465

  12. Evidence for a little ice age and recent warming from a borehole temperature data inversion procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Fivez, J.; Thoen, J.

    2004-11-15

    In this article, we apply our analytical theory, published earlier in this journal, to obtain information on the earth surface temperature history from some borehole temperature data. Compared to the results of the five different methods applied to the same temperature data, our method seems to be easier, assumption-free, and yields internally consistent results. The results suggest a cooling a few centuries ago, followed by a continuing warming up to these days, in agreement with a little ice age scenario.

  13. Age estimation of archaeological remains using amino acid racemization in dental enamel: a comparison of morphological, biochemical, and known ages-at-death.

    PubMed

    Griffin, R C; Chamberlain, A T; Hotz, G; Penkman, K E H; Collins, M J

    2009-10-01

    The poor accuracy of most current methods for estimating age-at-death in adult human skeletal remains is among the key problems facing palaeodemography. In forensic science, this problem has been solved for unburnt remains by the development of a chemical method for age estimation, using amino acid racemization in collagen extracted from dentine. Previous application of racemization methods to archaeological material has proven problematic. This study presents the application to archaeological human remains of a new age estimation method utilizing amino acid racemization in a potentially closed system-the dental enamel. The amino acid composition and extent of racemization in enamel from two Medieval cemeteries (Newcastle Blackgate and Grantham, England) and from a documented age-at-death sample from a 19th century cemetery (Spitalfriedhof St Johann, Switzerland) were determined. Alterations in the amino acid composition were detected in all populations, indicating that diagenetic change had taken place. However, in the Medieval populations, these changes did not appear to have substantially affected the relationship between racemization and age-at-death, with a strong relationship being retained between aspartic acid racemization and the morphological age estimates. In contrast, there was a poor relationship between racemization and age in the post-medieval documented age-at-death population from Switzerland. This appears to be due to leaching of amino acids post-mortem, indicating that enamel is not functioning as a perfectly closed system. Isolation of amino acids from a fraction of enamel which is less susceptible to leaching may improve the success of amino acid racemization for archaeological age estimation.

  14. Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

    PubMed

    López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

    2015-03-01

    Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

  15. Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

    PubMed

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

    2015-05-18

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

  16. Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  17. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    PubMed

    Monson, Daniel H; Udevitz, Mark S; Jay, Chadwick V

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2) (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  18. Estimating Age Ratios and Size of Pacific Walrus Herds on Coastal Haulouts using Video Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  19. Play and video effects on mood and procedure behaviors in school-aged children visiting the pediatrician.

    PubMed

    Burns-Nader, Sherwood; Hernandez-Reif, Maria; Thoma, Stephen J

    2013-10-01

    This study examines how different types of activities, including medical play, typical play, and videos, affect the mood and behaviors of children visiting a pediatric office. Seventy-two school-aged children visiting a pediatrician's office were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 groups: medical play, medical information video, typical play, and nonmedical information video control. Children completed a mood self-report measure and their behaviors were recorded during triage by nurses. The medical information video improved the school-aged children's mood. Children in the medical information video displayed less difficult behaviors during procedures than the medical play group. The findings suggest that providing information about medical equipment through a video of a child engaging in medical play may benefit children visiting the pediatrician.

  20. [Estimation of the biological age in males of the taiga tick (Ixodes persulcatus: Ixodinae) by fat reserves in the midgut].

    PubMed

    Grigor'eva, L A

    2012-01-01

    Some criteria for the estimation of the biological and calendar age by the fat storage in midgut cells of Ixodes persulcatus males were established on the basis of examination of ticks from the laboratory culture.