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Sample records for age model based

  1. Lithium battery aging model based on Dakin's degradation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baghdadi, Issam; Briat, Olivier; Delétage, Jean-Yves; Gyan, Philippe; Vinassa, Jean-Michel

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes and validates a calendar and power cycling aging model for two different lithium battery technologies. The model development is based on previous SIMCAL and SIMSTOCK project data. In these previous projects, the effect of the battery state of charge, temperature and current magnitude on aging was studied on a large panel of different battery chemistries. In this work, data are analyzed using Dakin's degradation approach. In fact, the logarithms of battery capacity fade and the increase in resistance evolves linearly over aging. The slopes identified from straight lines correspond to battery aging rates. Thus, a battery aging rate expression function of aging factors was deduced and found to be governed by Eyring's law. The proposed model simulates the capacity fade and resistance increase as functions of the influencing aging factors. Its expansion using Taylor series was consistent with semi-empirical models based on the square root of time, which are widely studied in the literature. Finally, the influence of the current magnitude and temperature on aging was simulated. Interestingly, the aging rate highly increases with decreasing and increasing temperature for the ranges of -5 °C-25 °C and 25 °C-60 °C, respectively.

  2. Optimization of arterial age prediction models based in pulse wave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scandurra, A. G.; Meschino, G. J.; Passoni, L. I.; Pra, A. L. Dai; Introzzi, A. R.; Clara, F. M.

    2007-11-01

    We propose the detection of early arterial ageing through a prediction model of arterial age based in the coherence assumption between the pulse wave morphology and the patient's chronological age. Whereas we evaluate several methods, a Sugeno fuzzy inference system is selected. Models optimization is approached using hybrid methods: parameter adaptation with Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Features selection was performed according with their projection on main factors of the Principal Components Analysis. The model performance was tested using the bootstrap error type .632E. The model presented an error smaller than 8.5%. This result encourages including this process as a diagnosis module into the device for pulse analysis that has been developed by the Bioengineering Laboratory staff.

  3. Towards an evidence-based model of aging.

    PubMed

    Katcher, Harold L

    2015-01-01

    The modern synthesis or evolutionary theory of aging assumes that aging results from the accumulation of errors or damages at the cellular level through the inadequacies of an organism's repair and maintenance machinery. The demonstration of cellular and organic rejuvenation requires the hypothesis that aging is the result of irreparable damage to be rejected. I will propose basic principles of mammalian aging based only on experimental data, without imposing the constraints of evolutionary theory. Consideration of the results of experiment suggests that fundamental assumptions about cell and organ aging being autonomous process, and about the centrality of cellular aging in organismic aging are wrong. The derived principles indicate that exogenous control of age-phenotype at cellular and higher levels of biological organization is possible. PMID:26054348

  4. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  5. Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deller, Sean; Rabadi, Ghaith A.; Bell, Michael I.; Bowling, Shannon R.; Tolk, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

  6. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose; Kulkarni, Chetan; Biswas, Gautam; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

  7. Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning.

    PubMed

    Mason, Thomas; Sutton, Matt; Whittaker, William; Birch, Stephen

    2015-05-01

    Health care decision makers are required to make planning decisions over a medium to long term planning horizon. Whilst population ageing is an important consideration for planners, age-stratified demographic models may produce misleading estimates of future resource requirements if the actual relationship between age and health is not fixed. We present a methodology which tests whether the assumption of a fixed age-health relationship is valid and estimate the magnitude of planning errors using a long time-series of measures of chronic health and service utilisation (N = 2419) taken from the Great British General Household Survey (1980-2008). We find that age-only models contain significant omitted variable bias, and that the relationship between age and health varies significantly across birth cohorts. Chronic sickness has fallen across birth cohorts born between 1890 and 2008, particularly before birth year 1930. Generational health improvements have mitigated the effects of population ageing, meaning that the population rate of sickness fell between 1980 and 2008. Planning based only on age leads to overestimation of the population level of health care need if successive cohorts are becoming healthier. Many alternative approaches exist which allow planners to relax the assumption of a fixed relationship between age and health. PMID:25780858

  8. Human iPSC-based Modeling of Late-Onset Disease via Progerin-induced Aging

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Justine D.; Ganat, Yosif M.; Kishinevsky, Sarah; Bowman, Robert L.; Liu, Becky; Tu, Edmund Y.; Mandal, Pankaj; Vera, Elsa; Shim, Jae-won; Kriks, Sonja; Taldone, Tony; Fusaki, Noemi; Tomishima, Mark J.; Krainc, Dimitri; Milner, Teresa A.; Rossi, Derrick J.; Studer, Lorenz

    2014-01-01

    Summary Reprogramming somatic cells to induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), resets their identity back to an embryonic age, and thus presents a significant hurdle for modeling late-onset disorders. In this study, we describe a strategy for inducing aging-related features in human iPSC-derived lineages and apply it to the modeling of Parkinson’s disease (PD). Our approach involves expression of progerin, a truncated form of lamin A associated with premature aging. We found that expression of progerin in iPSC-derived fibroblasts and neurons induces multiple aging-related markers and characteristics, including dopamine-specific phenotypes such as neuromelanin accumulation. Induced aging in PD-iPSC-derived dopamine neurons revealed disease phenotypes that require both aging and genetic susceptibility, such as pronounced dendrite degeneration, progressive loss of tyrosine-hydroxylase (TH) expression and enlarged mitochondria or Lewy body-precursor inclusions. Thus, our study suggests that progerin-induced aging can be used to reveal late-onset age-related disease features in hiPSC-based disease models. PMID:24315443

  9. COMPONENT DEGRADATION SUSCEPTIBILITIES AS THE BASES FOR MODELING REACTOR AGING RISK

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Toyooka, Michael Y.

    2010-07-18

    The extension of nuclear power plant operating licenses beyond 60 years in the United States will be necessary if we are to meet national energy needs while addressing the issues of carbon and climate. Characterizing the operating risks associated with aging reactors is problematic because the principal tool for risk-informed decision-making, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is not ideally-suited to addressing aging systems. The components most likely to drive risk in an aging reactor - the passives - receive limited treatment in PRA, and furthermore, standard PRA methods are based on the assumption of stationary failure rates: a condition unlikely to be met in an aging system. A critical barrier to modeling passives aging on the wide scale required for a PRA is that there is seldom sufficient field data to populate parametric failure models, and nor is there the availability of practical physics models to predict out-year component reliability. The methodology described here circumvents some of these data and modeling needs by using materials degradation metrics, integrated with conventional PRA models, to produce risk importance measures for specific aging mechanisms and component types. We suggest that these measures have multiple applications, from the risk-screening of components to the prioritization of materials research.

  10. Personalizing Age of Cancer Screening Cessation Based on Comorbidity: Model estimates of harms and benefits

    PubMed Central

    Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Gulati, Roman; Mariotto, Angela B; Schechter, Clyde B; de Carvalho, Tiago M; Knudsen, Amy B; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Heijnsdijk, Eveline AM; Pabiniak, Chester; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Rutter, Carolyn M; Kuntz, Karen M; Feuer, Eric J; Etzioni, Ruth; de Koning, Harry J; Zauber, Ann G; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S

    2014-01-01

    Background Harms and benefits of cancer screening depend on age and comorbidity, yet reliable estimates are lacking. Objective To estimate the harms and benefits of cancer screening by age and comorbidity to inform decisions about screening cessation. Design Collaborative modeling with seven well-established cancer simulation models and common data on average and comorbidity level-specific life expectancy from SEER-Medicare. Setting US population. Patients US cohorts aged 66–90 years in 2010 with average health or one of four comorbidity levels (linked to specific conditions): none, mild, moderate, or severe. Intervention Mammography, prostate-specific antigen testing, or fecal immunochemical testing. Measurements Lifetime cancer deaths prevented and life-years gained (benefits); false-positive tests and overdiagnosed cancers (harms). For each comorbidity level: the age at which harms and benefits of screening were similar to that for individuals with average health undergoing screening at age 74. Results Screening 1000 women with average life expectancy at age 74 for breast cancer resulted in 79–96 (range across models) false-positives, 0.5–0.8 overdiagnosed cancers, and 0.7–0.9 breast cancer deaths prevented. While absolute numbers of harms and benefits differed across cancer sites, the ages at which to cease screening were highly consistent across models and cancer sites when based on harm-benefit ratios comparable to screening average-health individuals at age 74. For individuals with no, mild, moderate, and severe comorbidities, screening until ages of 76, 74, 72, and 66, respectively, resulted in similar harms and benefits as for average-health individuals. Limitations Comorbidity only influenced life expectancy. Conclusion Comorbidity is an important determinant of harms and benefits of screening. Estimates of screening benefits and harms by comorbidity can inform discussions between providers and their older patients about personalizing decisions

  11. Lens opacity based modelling of the age-related straylight increase.

    PubMed

    Rozema, Jos J; Sanchez, Victoria; Artal, Natalia; Gramajo, Ana L; Torres, Eduardo; Luna, Jose D; Iribarren, Rafael; Tassignon, Marie-José; Juarez, Claudio P

    2015-12-01

    This work studies ethnic and geographical differences in the age-related straylight increase by means of a stochastic model and unpublished lens opacity data of 559 residents of Villa Maria (Argentina), as well as data of 912 Indonesian subjects published previously by Husain et al. For both cohorts the prevalence of each type and grade of lens opacity was determined as a function of age, from which a stochastic model was derived capable of simulating the lens opacity prevalence for both populations. These simulated lens opacity data were then converted to estimated straylight by means of an equation derived from previously recorded data of 107 eyes with varying degrees of cataract. Based on these opacity templates 2500 random sets of subject age and lens opacity data were generated by the stochastic model for each dataset, from which estimated straylight could be calculated. For the Argentinian data the estimated straylight was found to closely resemble the published models for age-related straylight increase. For younger eyes the straylight variation of the model was the same as what was previously published (in both cases ±0.200logunits), which doubled in size for older eyes. For the Indonesian data, however, this age-related straylight increase was found to be fundamentally different from the published age model. This suggests that current normative curves for age-related straylight increase may not always be appropriate for non-European populations, and that the inter-individual straylight variations in young, healthy eyes may possibly be due to variations in lens opacities.

  12. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schiff, C.J.; Kaufman, D.S.; Wallace, K.L.; Werner, A.; Ku, T.-L.; Brown, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS 14C ages, along with the 137Cs and 210Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of the core, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The selected age model is based on a mixed-effect regression that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages ??105 yr (95% confidence intervals). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7/500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of one every 130 yr. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L; Werner, A; Ku, T L; Brown, T A

    2007-02-25

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.

  14. Rule-Based Cell Systems Model of Aging using Feedback Loop Motifs Mediated by Stress Responses

    PubMed Central

    Kriete, Andres; Bosl, William J.; Booker, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    Investigating the complex systems dynamics of the aging process requires integration of a broad range of cellular processes describing damage and functional decline co-existing with adaptive and protective regulatory mechanisms. We evolve an integrated generic cell network to represent the connectivity of key cellular mechanisms structured into positive and negative feedback loop motifs centrally important for aging. The conceptual network is casted into a fuzzy-logic, hybrid-intelligent framework based on interaction rules assembled from a priori knowledge. Based upon a classical homeostatic representation of cellular energy metabolism, we first demonstrate how positive-feedback loops accelerate damage and decline consistent with a vicious cycle. This model is iteratively extended towards an adaptive response model by incorporating protective negative-feedback loop circuits. Time-lapse simulations of the adaptive response model uncover how transcriptional and translational changes, mediated by stress sensors NF-κB and mTOR, counteract accumulating damage and dysfunction by modulating mitochondrial respiration, metabolic fluxes, biosynthesis, and autophagy, crucial for cellular survival. The model allows consideration of lifespan optimization scenarios with respect to fitness criteria using a sensitivity analysis. Our work establishes a novel extendable and scalable computational approach capable to connect tractable molecular mechanisms with cellular network dynamics underlying the emerging aging phenotype. PMID:20585546

  15. Aging Face Recognition: A Hierarchical Learning Model Based on Local Patterns Selection.

    PubMed

    Li, Zhifeng; Gong, Dihong; Li, Xuelong; Tao, Dacheng

    2016-05-01

    Aging face recognition refers to matching the same person's faces across different ages, e.g., matching a person's older face to his (or her) younger one, which has many important practical applications, such as finding missing children. The major challenge of this task is that facial appearance is subject to significant change during the aging process. In this paper, we propose to solve the problem with a hierarchical model based on two-level learning. At the first level, effective features are learned from low-level microstructures, based on our new feature descriptor called local pattern selection (LPS). The proposed LPS descriptor greedily selects low-level discriminant patterns in a way, such that intra-user dissimilarity is minimized. At the second level, higher level visual information is further refined based on the output from the first level. To evaluate the performance of our new method, we conduct extensive experiments on the MORPH data set (the largest face aging data set available in the public domain), which show a significant improvement in accuracy over the state-of-the-art methods. PMID:26930681

  16. Cobalt-based age models of pelagic clay in the South Pacific Gyre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunlea, Ann G.; Murray, Richard W.; Sauvage, Justine; Pockalny, Robert A.; Spivack, Arthur J.; Harris, Robert N.; D'Hondt, Steven

    2015-09-01

    Dating pelagic clay can be a challenge due to its slow sedimentation rate, post-depositional alteration, and lack of biogenic deposition. Co-based dating techniques have the potential to create age models in pelagic clay under the assumption that the flux of non-detrital Co to the seafloor is spatially and temporally constant, resulting in the non-detrital Co concentrations being inversely proportional to sedimentation rate. We apply a Co-based method to the pelagic clay sequences from Sites U1365, U1366, U1369, and U1370 drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 329 in the South Pacific Gyre. We distinguished non-detrital Co from detrital Co using multivariate statistical partitioning techniques. We found that the non-detrital flux of Co at Site U1370 is approximately twice as high as that at the other sites, implying that the non-detrital Co flux is not regionally constant. This regional variation reflects the heterogeneous distribution of Co in the water column, as is observed in the present day. We present an improved approach to Co-based age modeling throughout the South Pacific Gyre and determine that the Co-based method can effectively date oxygenated pelagic clay deposited in the distal open ocean, but is less reliable for deposition closer to continents. When extending the method to geologically old sediment, it is important to consider the paleolocation of a given site to ensure these conditions are met.

  17. Development of a lifetime prediction model for lithium-ion batteries based on extended accelerated aging test data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ecker, Madeleine; Gerschler, Jochen B.; Vogel, Jan; Käbitz, Stefan; Hust, Friedrich; Dechent, Philipp; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2012-10-01

    Battery lifetime prognosis is a key requirement for successful market introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles. This work aims at the development of a lifetime prediction approach based on an aging model for lithium-ion batteries. A multivariable analysis of a detailed series of accelerated lifetime experiments representing typical operating conditions in hybrid electric vehicle is presented. The impact of temperature and state of charge on impedance rise and capacity loss is quantified. The investigations are based on a high-power NMC/graphite lithium-ion battery with good cycle lifetime. The resulting mathematical functions are physically motivated by the occurring aging effects and are used for the parameterization of a semi-empirical aging model. An impedance-based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model to simulate the dynamic interaction between aging of the battery and the thermal as well as electric behavior. Based on these models different drive cycles and management strategies can be analyzed with regard to their impact on lifetime. It is an important tool for vehicle designers and for the implementation of business models. A key contribution of the paper is the parameterization of the aging model by experimental data, while aging simulation in the literature usually lacks a robust empirical foundation.

  18. A Microphysics-Based Black Carbon Aging Scheme in a Global Chemical Transport Model: Constraints from HIPPO Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, C.; Li, Q.; Liou, K. N.; Qi, L.; Tao, S.; Schwarz, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon (BC) aging significantly affects its distributions and radiative properties, which is an important uncertainty source in estimating BC climatic effects. Global models often use a fixed aging timescale for the hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic BC conversion or a simple parameterization. We have developed and implemented a microphysics-based BC aging scheme that accounts for condensation and coagulation processes into a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Model results are systematically evaluated by comparing with the HIPPO observations across the Pacific (67°S-85°N) during 2009-2011. We find that the microphysics-based scheme substantially increases the BC aging rate over source regions as compared with the fixed aging timescale (1.2 days), due to the condensation of sulfate and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and coagulation with pre-existing hydrophilic aerosols. However, the microphysics-based scheme slows down BC aging over Polar regions where condensation and coagulation are rather weak. We find that BC aging is primarily dominated by condensation process that accounts for ~75% of global BC aging, while the coagulation process is important over source regions where a large amount of pre-existing aerosols are available. Model results show that the fixed aging scheme tends to overestimate BC concentrations over the Pacific throughout the troposphere by a factor of 2-5 at different latitudes, while the microphysics-based scheme reduces the discrepancies by up to a factor of 2, particularly in the middle troposphere. The microphysics-based scheme developed in this work decreases BC column total concentrations at all latitudes and seasons, especially over tropical regions, leading to large improvement in model simulations. We are presently analyzing the impact of this scheme on global BC budget and lifetime, quantifying its uncertainty associated with key parameters, and investigating the effects of heterogeneous chemical oxidation on BC aging.

  19. Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

  20. A holistic aging model for Li(NiMnCo)O2 based 18650 lithium-ion batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmalstieg, Johannes; Käbitz, Stefan; Ecker, Madeleine; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2014-07-01

    Knowledge on lithium-ion battery aging and lifetime estimation is a fundamental aspect for successful market introduction in high-priced goods like electric mobility. This paper illustrates the parameterization of a holistic aging model from accelerated aging tests. More than 60 cells of the same type are tested to analyze different impact factors. In calendar aging tests three temperatures and various SOC are applied to the batteries. For cycle aging tests especially different cycle depths and mean SOC are taken into account. Capacity loss and resistance increase are monitored as functions of time and charge throughput during the tests. From these data physical based functions are obtained, giving a mathematical description of aging. To calculate the stress factors like temperature or voltage, an impedance based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model. The model accepts power and current profiles as input, furthermore an ambient air temperature profile can be applied. Various drive cycles and battery management strategies can be tested and optimized using the lifetime prognosis of this tool. With the validation based on different realistic driving profiles and temperatures, a robust foundation is provided.

  1. Age estimation based on pelvic ossification using regression models from conventional radiography.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-Ai; Fan, Fei; Deng, Zhen-Hua

    2016-07-01

    To establish regression models for age estimation from the combination of the ossification of iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. One thousand three hundred and seventy-nine conventional pelvic radiographs at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to measure the value of estimation of 18 years of age with the classification scheme for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. Regression analysis was performed, and formulas for calculating approximate chronological age according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity were developed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were above 0.9 (p < 0.001), indicating a good prediction of the grading systems, and the cubic regression model was found to have the highest R-square value (R (2) = 0.744 for female and R (2) = 0.753 for male). The present classification scheme for apophyseal iliac crest ossification and the ischial tuberosity may be used for age estimation. And the present established cubic regression model according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity can be used for age estimation. PMID:27169673

  2. Modeling dengue fever risk based on socioeconomic parameters, nationality and age groups: GIS and remote sensing based case study.

    PubMed

    Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

    2011-10-15

    Dengue fever (DF) and its impacts are growing environmental, economic, and health concerns in Saudi Arabia. In this study, we have attempted to model areas with humans at risk of dengue fever prevalence, depending on the spatial relationship between dengue fever cases and different socioeconomic parameters. We have developed new methods to verify the quality of neighborhoods from high resolution satellite images based on several factors such as density of houses in each neighborhood in each district, width of streets, and roof area of houses. In the absence of detailed neighborhood quality information being available for each district, we felt this factor would best approximate the reality on the ground at local scales. Socioeconomic parameters, such as population numbers, population density, and neighborhood quality were analyzed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to create a prediction model identifying levels of risk of dengue and to describe the association between DF cases and the related socio-economic factors. Descriptive analysis was used to characterize dengue fever victims among Saudis and non-Saudis in various age groups. The results show that there was a strong positive association between dengue fever cases and socioeconomic factors (R²=0.80). The prevalence among Saudis was higher compared to non-Saudis in 2006 and 2007, while the prevalence among non-Saudis was higher in 2008, 2009 and 2010. For age groups, DF was more prevalent in adults between the ages of 16 and 60, accounting for approximately 74% of all reported cases in 2006, 67% in 2007, 81% in 2008, 87% in 2009, and 81% in 2010.

  3. Assessment of a ground water flow model of the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, using carbon-14-based ages and paleohydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.E.; Buapeng, S.

    1996-01-01

    A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age is corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the

  4. Age models and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marwan, N.; Rehfeld, K.; Goswami, B.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    The usefulness of a proxy record is largely dictated by accuracy and precision of its age model, i.e., its depth-age relationship. Only if age model uncertainties are minimized correlations or lead-lag relations can be reliably studied. Moreover, due to different dating strategies (14C, U-series, OSL dating, or counting of varves), dating errors or diverging age models lead to difficulties in comparing different palaeo proxy records. Uncertainties in the age model are even more important if an exact dating is necessary in order to calculate, e.g., data series of flux or rates (like dust flux records, pollen deposition rates). Several statistical approaches exist to handle the dating uncertainties themselves and to estimate the age-depth relationship. Nevertheless, linear interpolation is still the most commonly used method for age modeling. The uncertainties of a certain event at a given time due to the dating errors are often even completely neglected. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering dating errors and implications for the interpretation of variations in palaeo-climate proxy records from stalagmites (U-series dated). We present a simple approach for estimating age models and their confidence levels based on Monte Carlo methods and non-linear interpolation. This novel algorithm also allows for removing age reversals. Our approach delivers a time series of a proxy record with a value range for each age depth also, if desired, on an equidistant time axis. The algorithm is implemented in interactive scripts for use with MATLAB®, Octave, and FreeMat.

  5. Stratigraphy and wiggle-matching-based age-depth model of late Holocene marine sediments in Beppu Bay, southwest Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Sagawa, Takuya; Sakamoto, Tatsuhiko; Ikehara, Minoru; Takeoka, Hidetaka

    2013-06-01

    We analyzed the lithology, magnetic susceptibility, bulk density, and X-ray radiographs of 14 sediment cores (1-9 m long) from Beppu Bay in the western Seto Inland Sea, Japan, to establish the late Holocene stratigraphy in the deepest part of the bay and to develop an age-depth model for the sediments there. The cores contained 18 thick (major event) high-density layers (16 turbidites and two volcanic ash; >1 cm thick), and both lithological observations and density variations in the hemipelagic mud that is dominant in the cores revealed a further 55 thin (minor event) high-density layers (<1 cm thick). Analyses of color properties and opal and sand contents of the hemipelagic mud defined nine lithological units. After stratigraphic correlation of the event layers among cores, we projected 14C dates onto a single composite core. Forty-two AMS 14C dates from bivalve mollusk shells were used to construct a wiggle-matching-based age-depth model for the late Holocene sequence and to determine the local reservoir effect (ΔR). The age-depth model showed a sedimentation rate of 0.23-0.30 cm/yr for a 7.8 m-long composite core and an age of ˜2800 cal yr BP at the base. Wiggle-matching provided ΔR values of 115-155 yr for late Holocene bivalve samples from Beppu Bay, which is consistent with previous estimates reported from coastal areas near the Kuroshio Front. Comparison of wiggle-matching-derived ages of thick turbidites with the ages of historical earthquakes showed differences within ±25 yr. Our study demonstrated that wiggle matching with optimal fitting based on either the weighted least-squares or maximum likelihood method can minimize the effect of scatter of age data due to reworking and burrowing of bivalves and thus improve the accuracy of age-depth models.

  6. Linking a modified EPIC-based growth model (UPGM) with a component-based watershed model (AGES-W)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural models and decision support systems (DSS) for assessing water use and management are increasingly being applied to diverse geographic regions at different scales. This requires models that can simulate different crops, however, very few plant growth models are available that “easily” ...

  7. Mitochondrial base excision repair in mouse synaptosomes during normal aging and in a model of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Gredilla, Ricardo; Weissman, Lior; Yang, Jenq-Lin; Bohr, Vilhelm A; Stevnsner, Tinna

    2012-04-01

    Brain aging is associated with synaptic decline and synaptic function is highly dependent on mitochondria. Increased levels of oxidative DNA base damage and accumulation of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations or deletions lead to mitochondrial dysfunction, playing an important role in the aging process and the pathogenesis of several neurodegenerative diseases. Here we have investigated the repair of oxidative base damage, in synaptosomes of mouse brain during normal aging and in an AD model. During normal aging, a reduction in the base excision repair (BER) capacity was observed in the synaptosomal fraction, which was associated with a decrease in the level of BER proteins. However, we did not observe changes between the synaptosomal BER activities of presymptomatic and symptomatic AD mice harboring mutated amyolid precursor protein (APP), Tau, and presinilin-1 (PS1) (3xTgAD). Our findings suggest that the age-related reduction in BER capacity in the synaptosomal fraction might contribute to mitochondrial and synaptic dysfunction during aging. The development of AD-like pathology in the 3xTgAD mouse model was, however, not associated with deficiencies of the BER mechanisms in the synaptosomal fraction when the whole brain was analyzed.

  8. Evidence-Based Systematic Review: Effects of Different Service Delivery Models on Communication Outcomes for Elementary School-Age Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cirrin, Frank M.; Schooling, Tracy L.; Nelson, Nickola W.; Diehl, Sylvia F.; Flynn, Perry F.; Staskowski, Maureen; Torrey, T. Zoann; Adamczyk, Deborah F.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to conduct an evidence-based systematic review (EBSR) of peer-reviewed articles from the last 30 years about the effect of different service delivery models on speech-language intervention outcomes for elementary school-age students. Method: A computer search of electronic databases was conducted to…

  9. Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  10. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

  11. Testing Models of Psychopathology in Preschool-aged Children Using a Structured Interview-based Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Dougherty, Lea R.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Carlson, Gabrielle A.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2014-01-01

    A number of studies have found that broadband internalizing and externalizing factors provide a parsimonious framework for understanding the structure of psychopathology across childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. However, few of these studies have examined psychopathology in young children, and several recent studies have found support for alternative models, including a bi-factor model with common and specific factors. The present study used parents’ (typically mothers’) reports on a diagnostic interview in a community sample of 3-year old children (n=541; 53.9 % male) to compare the internalizing-externalizing latent factor model with a bi-factor model. The bi-factor model provided a better fit to the data. To test the concurrent validity of this solution, we examined associations between this model and paternal reports and laboratory observations of child temperament. The internalizing factor was associated with low levels of surgency and high levels of fear; the externalizing factor was associated with high levels of surgency and disinhibition and low levels of effortful control; and the common factor was associated with high levels of surgency and negative affect and low levels of effortful control. These results suggest that psychopathology in preschool-aged children may be explained by a single, common factor influencing nearly all disorders and unique internalizing and externalizing factors. These findings indicate that shared variance across internalizing and externalizing domains is substantial and are consistent with recent suggestions that emotion regulation difficulties may be a common vulnerability for a wide array of psychopathology. PMID:24652485

  12. A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

    PubMed

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included.

  13. A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

    PubMed

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. PMID:23357512

  14. Developing a community-based participatory research model to engage transition age youth using mental health service in research.

    PubMed

    Lincoln, Alisa K; Borg, Ryan; Delman, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    We present a model for the development and conduct of a community-based participatory research project with transition age youth (TAY) mental health service users. Community-based participatory research frameworks can facilitate equitable partnerships and meaningful inclusion but have not been fully drawn upon in mental health research. The model included TAY as trained research associates involved in every aspect of the research process. We describe the development of the project, creation of the research team, training, the design and conduct of the study, and challenges faced. The methods developed successfully provided support for the meaningful participation of TAY in the project.

  15. Developing a Community-Based Participatory Research Model to Engage Transition Age Youth Using Mental Health Service in Research

    PubMed Central

    Lincoln, Alisa K.; Borg, Ryan; Delman, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    We present a model for the development and conduct of a Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR) project with transition age youth (TAY) mental health service users. CBPR frameworks can facilitate equitable partnerships and meaningful inclusion, but have not been fully drawn-upon in mental health research. The model included TAY as trained research associates involved in every aspect of the research process. We describe the development of the project, creation of the research team, training, the design and conduct of the study, and challenges faced. The methods developed successfully provided support for the meaningful participation of TAY in the project. PMID:25423247

  16. An Age-Dependent Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Model for the Organophosphorus Insecticide Chlorpyrifos in the Preweanling Rat

    SciTech Connect

    Timchalk, Chuck; Kousba, Ahmed A.; Poet, Torka S.

    2007-08-01

    Juvenile rats are more susceptible than adults to the acute toxicity of organophosphorus insecticides like chlorpyrifos (CPF). Age- and dose-dependent differences in metabolism may be responsible. Of importance is CYP450 activation and detoxification of CPF to chlorpyrifos-oxon (CPF-oxon) and trichloropyridinol (TCP), as well as B-esterase (cholinesterase; ChE) and A-esterase (PON-1) detoxification of CPF-oxon to TCP. In the current study, a modified physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model incorporating age-dependent changes in CYP450, PON-1, and tissue ChE levels for rats was developed. In this model, age was used as a dependent function to estimate body weight which was then used to allometrically scale both metabolism and tissue ChE levels. Model simulations suggest that preweanling rats are particularly sensitive to CPF toxicity, with levels of CPF-oxon in blood and brain disproportionately increasing, relative to the response in adult rats. This age-dependent non-linear increase in CPF-oxon concentration may potentially result from the depletion of non-target B-esterases, and a lower PON-1 metabolic capacity in younger animals. These results indicate that the PBPK/PD model behaves consistently with the general understanding of CPF toxicity, pharmacokinetics and tissue ChE inhibition in neonatal and adult rats. Hence, this model represents an important starting point for developing a computational model to assess the neurotoxic potential of environmentally relevant organophosphate exposures in infants and children.

  17. An updated model for nitrate uptake modelling in plants. II. Assessment of active root involvement in nitrate uptake based on integrated root system age: measured versus modelled outputs.

    PubMed

    Malagoli, Philippe; Le Deunff, Erwan

    2014-05-01

    Background and Aims An updated version of a mechanistic structural-functional model was developed to predict nitrogen (N) uptake throughout the growth cycle by a crop of winter oilseed rape, Brassica napus, grown under field conditions. Methods The functional component of the model derives from a revisited conceptual framework that combines the thermodynamic Flow-Force interpretation of nitrate uptake isotherms and environmental and in planta effects on nitrate influx. Estimation of the root biomass (structural component) is based upon a combination of root mapping along the soil depth profile in the field and a relationship between the specific root length and external nitrate concentration. The root biomass contributing actively to N uptake was determined by introduction of an integrated root system age that allows assignment of a root absorption capacity at a specific age of the root. Key Results Simulations were well matched to measured data of N taken up under field conditions for three levels of N fertilization. The model outputs indicated that the two topsoil layers (0-30 and 30-60 cm) contained 75-88 % of the total root length and biomass, and accounted for 90-95 % of N taken up at harvest. Conclusions This conceptual framework provides a model of nitrate uptake that is able to respond to external nitrate fluctuations at both functional and structural levels.

  18. Modelling of facial growth in Czech children based on longitudinal data: Age progression from 12 to 15 years using 3D surface models.

    PubMed

    Koudelová, Jana; Dupej, Ján; Brůžek, Jaroslav; Sedlak, Petr; Velemínská, Jana

    2015-03-01

    Dealing with the increasing number of long-term missing children and juveniles requires more precise and objective age progression techniques for the prediction of their current appearance. Our contribution includes detailed and real facial growth information used for modelling age progression during adolescence. This study was based on an evaluation of the overall 180 three-dimensional (3D) facial scans of Czech children (23 boys, 22 girls), which were longitudinally studied from 12 to 15 years of age and thus revealed the real growth-related changes. The boys underwent more marked changes compared with the girls, especially in the regions of the eyebrow ridges, nose and chin. Using modern geometric morphometric methods, together with their applications, we modelled the ageing and allometric trajectories for both sexes and simulated the age-progressed effects on facial scans. The facial parts that are important for facial recognition (eyes, nose, mouth and chin) all deviated less than 0.75mm, whereas the areas with the largest deviations were situated on the marginal parts of the face. The mean error between the predicted and real facial morphology obtained by modelling the children from 12 to 15 years of age was 1.92mm in girls and 1.86mm in boys. This study is beneficial for forensic artists as it reduces the subjectivity of age progression methods.

  19. Designing across ages: Multi-agent-based models and learning electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, Pratim

    Electricity is regarded as one of the most challenging topics for students at all levels -- middle school -- college (Cohen, Eylon, & Ganiel, 1983; Belcher & Olbert, 2003; Eylon & Ganiel, 1990; Steinberg et al., 1985). Several researchers have suggested that naive misconceptions about electricity stem from a deep incommensurability (Slotta & Chi, 2006; Chi, 2005) or incompatibility (Chi, Slotta & Leauw, 1994; Reiner, Slotta, Chi, & Resnick, 2000) between naive and expert knowledge structures. I first present an alternative theoretical framework that adopts an emergent levels-based perspective as proposed by Wilensky & Resnick (1999). From this perspective, macro-level phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as behavior of linear electric circuits, can be conceived of as emergent from simple, body-syntonic interactions between electrons and ions in a circuit. I argue that adopting such a perspective enables us to reconceive commonly noted misconceptions in electricity as behavioral evidences of "slippage between levels" -- i.e., these misconceptions appear when otherwise productive knowledge elements are sometimes inappropriately activated due to certain macro-level phenomenological cues only -- and, that the same knowledge elements when activated due to phenomenological cues at both micro- and macro-levels, can engender a deeper, expert-like understanding. I will then introduce NIELS (NetLogo Investigations In Electromagnetism, Sengupta & Wilensky, 2006, 2008, 2009), a low-threshold high-ceiling (LTHC) learning environment of multi-agent-based computational models that represent phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as the behavior of linear electric circuits, as emergent. I also present results from implementations of NIELS in 5th, 7th and 12th grade classrooms that show the following: (a) how leveraging certain "design elements" over others in NIELS models can create new phenomenological cues, which in turn can be

  20. BUILDING REALISTIC BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS FOR PREDICTING SUSCEPTIBILITY IN THE AGED POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Detoxification and elimination of xenobiotics is a major function of the liver and is important in maintaining the metabolic homeostasis of the organism. The degree to which aging affects hepatic metabolism is not known. The expression of XMEs, in part, determines the fate of the...

  1. "Model age-based" and "copy when uncertain" biases in children's social learning of a novel task.

    PubMed

    Wood, Lara A; Harrison, Rachel A; Lucas, Amanda J; McGuigan, Nicola; Burdett, Emily R R; Whiten, Andrew

    2016-10-01

    Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N=140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children's continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of model.

  2. Modeled ground water age distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  3. Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose; Saxena, Abhinav; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai F.

    2011-01-01

    An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

  4. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  5. The Cognitive Processes Underlying Event-Based Prospective Memory In School Age Children and Young Adults: A Formal Model-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute Johanna; Martin, Claudia

    2010-01-01

    Fifty 7-year-olds (29 female), 53 10-year-olds (29 female), and 36 young adults (19 female), performed a computerized event-based prospective memory task. All three groups differed significantly in prospective memory performance with adults showing the best performance and 7-year-olds the poorest performance. We used a formal multinomial process tree model of event-based prospective memory to decompose age differences in cognitive processes that jointly contribute to prospective memory performance. The formal modeling results demonstrated that adults differed significantly from the 7-year-olds and 10-year-olds on both the prospective component and the retrospective component of the task. The 7-year-olds and 10-year-olds differed only in the ability to recognize prospective memory target events. The prospective memory task imposed a cost to ongoing activities in all three age groups. PMID:20053020

  6. ALL AGES LEAD MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model for Lead in Children (version 0.99d) was released in March 1994, and has been widely accepted in the risk assessment community as a tool for implementing the site specific risk assessment process when the issue is childhood...

  7. Dynamic stock and end-of-life flow identification based on the internal cycle model and mean-age monitoring.

    PubMed

    Tsiliyannis, Christos Aristeides

    2014-07-01

    Planning of end-of-life (EoL) product take-back systems and sizing of dismantling and recycling centers, entails the EoL flow (EoLF) that originates from the product dynamic stock (DS). Several uncertain factors (economic, technological, health, social and environmental) render both the EoLF and the remaining stock uncertain. Early losses of products during use due to biodegradation, wear and uncertain factors such as withdrawals and exports of used, may diminish the stock and the EoLF. Life expectancy prediction methods are static, ignoring early losses and inapt under dynamic conditions. Existing dynamic methods, either consider a single uncertain factor (e.g. GDP) approximately or heuristically modelled and ignore other factors that may become dominant, or assume cognizance of DS and of the center axis of the EoL exit distribution that are unknown for most products. As a result, reliable dynamic EoLF prediction for both durables and consumer end-products is still challenging. The present work develops an identification method for estimating the early loss and DS and predicting the dynamic EoLF, based on available input data (production+net imports) and on sampled measurements of the stock mean-age and the EoLF mean-age. The mean ages are scaled quantities, slowly varying, even under dynamic conditions and can be reliably determined, even from small size and/or frequent samples. The method identifies the early loss sequence, as well as the center axis and spread of the EoL exit distribution, which are subsequently used to determine the DS and EoLF profiles, enabling consistent and reliable predictions.

  8. Aging Research Using Mouse Models

    PubMed Central

    Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L.; Anderson, Laura; Sheehan, Susan; Hill, Warren G.; Chang, Bo; Churchill, Gary A.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Korstanje, Ron; Peters, Luanne L.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the dramatic increase in human lifespan over the past century, there remains pronounced variability in “health-span”, or the period of time in which one is generally healthy and free of disease. Much of the variability in health-span and lifespan is thought to be genetic in origin. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of aging and identifying ways to boost longevity is a primary goal in aging research. Here, we describe a pipeline of phenotypic assays for assessing mouse models of aging. This pipeline includes behavior/cognition testing, body composition analysis, and tests of kidney function, hematopoiesis, immune function and physical parameters. We also describe study design methods for assessing lifespan and health-span, and other important considerations when conducting aging research in the laboratory mouse. The tools and assays provided can assist researchers with understanding the correlative relationships between age-associated phenotypes and, ultimately, the role of specific genes in the aging process. PMID:26069080

  9. Aging behavior and lifetime modeling for polycarbonate

    SciTech Connect

    Kahlen, S.; Wallner, G.M.; Lang, R.W.

    2010-05-15

    In this paper, polycarbonate (PC) as a material candidate for solar absorber applications is investigated as to the aging behavior at different temperatures in air and water. The aging conditioning was performed in air in the temperature range from 120 to 140 C and in water between 70 and 95 C. Tensile tests were performed on unaged and aged PC film specimens at ambient temperature using strain-to-break values as a performance indicator for the degree of aging. For PC the effect of aging was found to strongly depend on the aging conditions. Activation energy based lifetime prediction models according to various methods described in the literature were applied. The activation energies and corresponding lifetime predictions for the temperature range from 40 to 60 C in water and from 90 to 110 C in air derived from these models are compared and interpreted as to their practical relevance. (author)

  10. Multi-mutational model for cancer based on age-time patterns of radiation effects: 2. Biological aspects

    SciTech Connect

    Mendelsohn, M.L.; Pierce, P.A.

    1997-09-04

    Biological properties of relevance when modeling cancers induced in the atom bomb survivors include the wide distribution of the induced cancers across all organs, their biological indistinguishability from background cancers, their rates being proportional to background cancer rates, their rates steadily increasing over at least 50 years as the survivors age, and their radiation dose response being linear. We have successfully described this array of properties with a modified Armitage-Doll model using 5 to 6 somatic mutations, no intermediate growth, and the dose-related replacement of any one of these time-driven mutations by a radiation-induced mutation. Such a model is contrasted to prevailing models that use fewer mutations combined with intervening growth. While the rationale and effectiveness of our model is compelling for carcinogenesis in the atom bomb survivors, the lack of a promotional component may limit the generality of the model for other types of human carcinogenesis.

  11. End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2016-01-01

    As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

  12. USE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODEL FOR CHLOROFORM IN RATS TO DETERMINE AGE-RELATED TOXICITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    USE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODEL FOR CHLOROFORM IN RATS TO DETERMINE AGE-RELATED TOXICITY.
    CR Eklund, MV Evans, and JE Simmons. US EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD,PKB, Research Triangle Park, NC.

    Chloroform (CHCl3) is a disinfec...

  13. Interaction between age of irradiation and age of testing in the disruption of operant performance using a ground-based model for exposure to cosmic rays.

    PubMed

    Rabin, Bernard M; Joseph, James A; Shukitt-Hale, Barbara; Carrihill-Knoll, Kirsty L

    2012-02-01

    Previous research has shown a progressive deterioration in cognitive performance in rats exposed to (56)Fe particles as a function of age. The present experiment was designed to evaluate the effects of age of irradiation independently of the age of testing. Male Fischer-344 rats, 2, 7, 12, and 16 months of age, were exposed to 25-200 cGy of (56)Fe particles (1,000 MeV/n). Following irradiation, the rats were trained to make an operant response on an ascending fixed-ratio reinforcement schedule. When performance was evaluated as a function of both age of irradiation and testing, the results showed a significant effect of age on the dose needed to produce a performance decrement, such that older rats exposed to lower doses of (56)Fe particles showed a performance decrement compared to younger rats. When performance was evaluated as a function of age of irradiation with the age of testing held constant, the results indicated that age of irradiation was a significant factor influencing operant responding, such that older rats tested at similar ages and exposed to similar doses of (56)Fe particles showed similar performance decrements. The results are interpreted as indicating that the performance decrement is not a function of age per se, but instead is dependent upon an interaction between the age of irradiation, the age of testing, and exposure to HZE particles. The nature of these effects and how age of irradiation affects cognitive performance after an interval of 15 to 16 months remains to be established.

  14. A model of premature aging in mice based on altered stress-related behavioral response and immunosenescence.

    PubMed

    Viveros, María-Paz; Arranz, Lorena; Hernanz, Angel; Miquel, Jaime; De la Fuente, Mónica

    2007-01-01

    The intensity of behavioral and neuroendocrine responses to stressful stimuli in rodent strains seems to be inversely related to their life span. We have previously shown that interindividual differences in members of outbred Swiss and inbred BALB/c mouse populations, both male and female, may be related to their behavior in a simple T-maze test. The animals that explore the maze slowly show impaired neuromuscular vigor and coordination, decreased locomotor activity, increased level of emotionality/anxiety, decreased levels of brain biogenic amines as well as immunosenescence and decreased life span, when compared to their control counterparts, which quickly explore the maze. These traits are similar to some of the alterations previously observed in aging animals and therefore we proposed that those 'slow mice' are biologically older than the fast animals and may be a model of prematurely aging mice (PAM). Although most of our work on this model has been performed on chronologically adult-mature animals, we have also shown that certain characteristics of PAM, such as increased anxiety and deficient immune response, are already present in chronologically young animals. Thus, it is tempting to hypothesize that chronic hyperreactivity to stress (trait anxiety) leading to immune dysfunction may have a causal relationship with impaired health and premature aging. In view of the link between oxidative stress and the aging process, the redox state of peritoneal leukocytes from PAM has been studied, showing an oxidative stress situation. In the present work we have determined the levels of a key antioxidant, reduced glutathione (GSH), and the oxidant malondialdehyde (MDA), a marker of lipid peroxidation, both in the spleen and brain of male and female PAM and non-PAM (NPAM). We found that GSH and MDA are decreased and increased, respectively, in PAM with respect to NPAM. Moreover, diet supplementation with antioxidants showed to be an effective strategy for protection

  15. Towards an Analytical Age-Dependent Model of Contrast Sensitivity Functions for an Ageing Society.

    PubMed

    Joulan, Karine; Brémond, Roland; Hautière, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    The Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) describes how the visibility of a grating depends on the stimulus spatial frequency. Many published CSF data have demonstrated that contrast sensitivity declines with age. However, an age-dependent analytical model of the CSF is not available to date. In this paper, we propose such an analytical CSF model based on visual mechanisms, taking into account the age factor. To this end, we have extended an existing model from Barten (1999), taking into account the dependencies of this model's optical and physiological parameters on age. Age-dependent models of the cones and ganglion cells densities, the optical and neural MTF, and optical and neural noise are proposed, based on published data. The proposed age-dependent CSF is finally tested against available experimental data, with fair results. Such an age-dependent model may be beneficial when designing real-time age-dependent image coding and display applications. PMID:26078994

  16. Towards an Analytical Age-Dependent Model of Contrast Sensitivity Functions for an Ageing Society

    PubMed Central

    Joulan, Karine; Brémond, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) describes how the visibility of a grating depends on the stimulus spatial frequency. Many published CSF data have demonstrated that contrast sensitivity declines with age. However, an age-dependent analytical model of the CSF is not available to date. In this paper, we propose such an analytical CSF model based on visual mechanisms, taking into account the age factor. To this end, we have extended an existing model from Barten (1999), taking into account the dependencies of this model's optical and physiological parameters on age. Age-dependent models of the cones and ganglion cells densities, the optical and neural MTF, and optical and neural noise are proposed, based on published data. The proposed age-dependent CSF is finally tested against available experimental data, with fair results. Such an age-dependent model may be beneficial when designing real-time age-dependent image coding and display applications. PMID:26078994

  17. Fault slip rates and initiation age based on diffusion equation modeling: Wasatch Fault Zone and eastern Great Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mattson, Ann; Bruhn, Ronald L.

    2001-01-01

    Models of the evolution of fault scarp morphology provide time elapsed since slip initiated on a faulted surface and may therefore provide more accurate estimates of slip rate than the rate calculated by dividing scarp offset by the age of the ruptured surface. To accomplish this task, linear and nonlinear models of sediment transport are calibrated from the morphology of Lake Bonneville shoreline scarps and fault scarps formed by multiple, surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Wasatch Fault Zone (WFZ). Profile modeling of scarps formed by several events distributed through time is done using a constant slip rate (CSR) solution and yields a value of A/κ (1/2 slip rate/diffusivity). Time elapsed since slip initiated on a fault is determined by establishing a value for κ and measuring total scarp offset. CSR nonlinear modeling (κ0 = 2.8 ± 1.1 m2/kyr, WFZ) of faults along the west slope of the Oquirrh Mountains indicates a slip rate of ˜0.1 mm/yr since 50 to 65 ka, which is corroborated by cosmogenic dating (10Be/26Al age = 75 ka). The slip rate along the west flank of the Stansbury Mountains varies from 0.04 to 0.2 mm/yr for time frames of 10 to >100 ka, with the most recent rupture on the northern portion of the fault zone ˜10 ka. Scarp analysis of the southern end of the Nephi segment, WFZ, suggests either temporal clustering or variable slip rate as indicated by differences in the short-term (1.3 mm/yr for 4.3 ka) versus long-term (0.4 mm/yr for 70 ka) slip rates.

  18. Age Starting Sigmoidoscopy or Colonoscopy Exams Maps and Data of Model-Based Small Area Estimates - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    Age Starting Sigmoidoscopy or Colonoscopy Exams is defined as a person 18 years of age or older who must have reported that he/she thinks that at age 50 people supposed to start having sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy exams.

  19. Combined cobalamin and iron deficiency anemia: a diagnostic approach using a model based on age and homocysteine assessment.

    PubMed

    Remacha, Angel F; Sardà, M P; Canals, C; Queraltò, J M; Zapico, E; Remacha, J; Carrascosa, C

    2013-04-01

    Macrocytosis, the hallmark of cobalamin/folate deficiency anemia, is frequently absent. Clinicians have to be aware of coexisting conditions that can mask the macrocytosis expression of megaloblastic anemia, especially iron deficiency. The objective of this work was to investigate the degree of overlap between iron deficiency anemia (IDA) and cobalamin deficiency and to develop a predictive model for differentiating IDA from combined deficiency. A prospective case and control study was carried out to investigate vitamin B12 and folate status in iron deficiency anemia. A total of 658 patients were recruited, 41 of whom (6.2 %) were excluded. The remaining 617 subjects consisted of 130 controls and 487 with IDA. Low vitamin B12 (LB12) was considered when serum vitamin B12 was ≤200 pmol/L. High serum homocysteine (Hcy) was defined by Hcy >17 μM/L. A multivariate analysis (including a logistic regression) was performed to develop a diagnostic model. Low vitamin B12 levels were found in 17.8 % of IDA subjects. Ten out of 11 subjects (91 %) with IDA and serum vitamin B12 (B12) ≤100 pmol/L showed vitamin B12 deficiency. Moreover, vitamin B12 deficiency was demonstrated in 48 % of cases with IDA and B12 between 101 and 150 pmol/L and in 40 % with IDA and B12 between 151 and 200 pmol/, respectively. As a result of multivariate logistic analysis, neutrophil counts and age predicted subjects with vitamin B12 ≤200 and Hcy >17 μmol/L, [Formula: see text]. Using the age of 60 as a cutoff, sensitivity was 91 % (39 out of the 43 patients with vitamin B12 deficiency and IDA were identified). In summary, low vitamin B12 was found in 18 % of patients with IDA. Vitamin B12 deficiency was demonstrated in many patients with LB12 and IDA. Age over 60 years was used to separate patients with combined deficiency (sensitivity 91 %). Therefore, for a diagnostic purpose, serum vitamin B12 should be evaluated in IDA patients over 60 years. This diagnostic model needs to

  20. [Experimental models of human skin aging].

    PubMed

    Nikolakis, G; Zoschke, C; Makrantonaki, E; Hausmann, C; Schäfer-Korting, M; Zouboulis, C C

    2016-02-01

    The skin is a representative model for the study of human aging. Despite the high regenerative capacity of the skin, skin physiology changes over the course of life. Medical and cosmetic research is trying to prevent aging, to slow, to stop, or to reverse it. Effects of age-related DNA damage and of changing skin structure on pharmacological parameters are largely unknown. This review article summarizes the state of scientific knowledge in the field of experimental models of human skin aging and shows approaches to improve organotypic skin models, to develop predictive models of aging, and improve aging research.

  1. [Experimental models of human skin aging].

    PubMed

    Nikolakis, G; Zoschke, C; Makrantonaki, E; Hausmann, C; Schäfer-Korting, M; Zouboulis, C C

    2016-02-01

    The skin is a representative model for the study of human aging. Despite the high regenerative capacity of the skin, skin physiology changes over the course of life. Medical and cosmetic research is trying to prevent aging, to slow, to stop, or to reverse it. Effects of age-related DNA damage and of changing skin structure on pharmacological parameters are largely unknown. This review article summarizes the state of scientific knowledge in the field of experimental models of human skin aging and shows approaches to improve organotypic skin models, to develop predictive models of aging, and improve aging research. PMID:26743051

  2. Factors relating to poor survival rates of aged cervical cancer patients: a population-based study with the relative survival model in Osaka, Japan.

    PubMed

    Ioka, Akiko; Ito, Yuri; Tsukuma, Hideaki

    2009-01-01

    Poor survival of older cervical cancer patients has been reported; however, related factors, such as the extent of disease and the competitive risk by aging have not been well evaluated. We applied the relative survival model developed by Dickman et al to resolve this issue. Study subjects were cervical cancer patients retrieved from the Osaka Cancer Registry. They were limited to the 10,048 reported cases diagnosed from 1975 to 1999, based on the quality of data collection on vital status. Age at diagnosis was categorized into <30, 30-54, 55-64, and > or = 65 years. The impact of prognostic factors on 5-year survival was evaluated with the relative survival model, incorporating patients' expected survival in multivariate analysis. The age-specific relative excess risk (RER) of death was significantly higher for older groups as compared with women aged 30-54 years (RER, 1.58 at 55-64 and 2.51 at > or = 65 years). The RER was decreased by 64.8% among the 55-64 year olds as an effect of cancer stage at diagnosis, and by 43.4% among those 65 years old and over. After adding adjustment for treatment modalities, the RER was no longer significantly higher among 55-64 year olds; however, it was still higher among 65 year olds and over. Advanced stage at diagnosis was the main determinant of poor survival among the aged cervical cancer patients, although other factors such as limitations on the combination of treatment were also suggested to have an influence in those aged 65 years and over.

  3. Simulating Statistical Power in Latent Growth Curve Modeling: A Strategy for Evaluating Age-Based Changes in Cognitive Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lindenberger, Ulman

    Variability across and within individuals is a fundamental property of adult age changes in behavior [20, 21, 24]. Some people seem young for their age, others seem old; shining examples of older individuals who maintained high levels of intellectual functioning well into very old age, such as Johann Wolfgang von Goethe or Sophocles, stand in contrast to individuals whose cognitive resources are depleted by the time they reach later adulthood. A similar contrast exists between different intellectual abilities. For example, if one looks at the speed needed to identify and discriminate between different percepts, one is likely to find monotonic decline after late adolescence and early adulthood.

  4. A compositional and dynamic model for face aging.

    PubMed

    Suo, Jinli; Zhu, Song-Chun; Shan, Shiguang; Chen, Xilin

    2010-03-01

    In this paper, we present a compositional and dynamic model for face aging. The compositional model represents faces in each age group by a hierarchical And-Or graph, in which And nodes decompose a face into parts to describe details (e.g., hair, wrinkles, etc.) crucial for age perception and Or nodes represent large diversity of faces by alternative selections. Then a face instance is a transverse of the And-Or graph-parse graph. Face aging is modeled as a Markov process on the parse graph representation. We learn the parameters of the dynamic model from a large annotated face data set and the stochasticity of face aging is modeled in the dynamics explicitly. Based on this model, we propose a face aging simulation and prediction algorithm. Inversely, an automatic age estimation algorithm is also developed under this representation. We study two criteria to evaluate the aging results using human perception experiments: 1) the accuracy of simulation: whether the aged faces are perceived of the intended age group, and 2) preservation of identity: whether the aged faces are perceived as the same person. Quantitative statistical analysis validates the performance of our aging model and age estimation algorithm.

  5. A compositional and dynamic model for face aging.

    PubMed

    Suo, Jinli; Zhu, Song-Chun; Shan, Shiguang; Chen, Xilin

    2010-03-01

    In this paper, we present a compositional and dynamic model for face aging. The compositional model represents faces in each age group by a hierarchical And-Or graph, in which And nodes decompose a face into parts to describe details (e.g., hair, wrinkles, etc.) crucial for age perception and Or nodes represent large diversity of faces by alternative selections. Then a face instance is a transverse of the And-Or graph-parse graph. Face aging is modeled as a Markov process on the parse graph representation. We learn the parameters of the dynamic model from a large annotated face data set and the stochasticity of face aging is modeled in the dynamics explicitly. Based on this model, we propose a face aging simulation and prediction algorithm. Inversely, an automatic age estimation algorithm is also developed under this representation. We study two criteria to evaluate the aging results using human perception experiments: 1) the accuracy of simulation: whether the aged faces are perceived of the intended age group, and 2) preservation of identity: whether the aged faces are perceived as the same person. Quantitative statistical analysis validates the performance of our aging model and age estimation algorithm. PMID:20075467

  6. Age depth model construction of the upper section of ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project based on the high-resolution 14C dating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitagawa, H.; Nakamura, T.; Neugebauer, I.; Schwab, M. J.; Brauer, A.; Goldstein, S. L.; Stein, M.

    2014-12-01

    To reconstruct environmental, climatic and tectonic histories of the Levant, a deep drilling has been accomplished in the northern basin of the Dead Sea during the fall winter of 2010-2011 by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) in the framework of the ICDP program. The sediment cores from site 5017-1 (water depth of ~300 m) recorded the paleoenvironmental and paleohydrological changes in the Dead Sea and the Levant during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles (Neugebauer et al., QSR in press). To provide precise timing of sedimentological - limnological events in the lake and its watershed, and more critically the relative timing of these events, radiocarbon dating of >70 well-preserved terrestrial plants and some carbonate deposits from the upper 150 m long section of the sediment core were performed. Based on the high-resolution radiocarbon dating, a statistical age-depth model was constructed with assumptions on the deposition condition and the radiocarbon age offset of carbonate samples. We discuss the practicality and the limitation of the age-depth model toward interpreting the high-resolution records of environmental, climatic and tectonic events recorded in the long sediment cores from site 5017-1.

  7. Simulating the multicellular homeostasis with a cell-based discrete receptor dynamics model: The non-mutational origin of cancer and aging.

    PubMed

    Lou, Yuting; Chen, Yu

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of the study is to investigate the multicellular homeostasis in epithelial tissues over very large timescales. Inspired by the receptor dynamics of IBCell model proposed by Rejniak et al. an on-grid agent-based model for multicellular system is constructed. Instead of observing the multicellular architectural morphologies, the diversity of homeostatic states is quantitatively analyzed through a substantial number of simulations by measuring three new order parameters, the phenotypic population structure, the average proliferation age and the relaxation time to stable homeostasis. Nearby the interfaces of distinct homeostatic phases in 3D phase diagrams of the three order parameters, intermediate quasi-stable phases of slow dynamics that features quasi-stability with a large spectrum of relaxation timescales are found. A further exploration on the static and dynamic correlations among the three order parameters reveals that the quasi-stable phases evolve towards two terminations, tumorigenesis and degeneration, which are respectively accompanied by rejuvenation and aging. With the exclusion of the environmental impact and the mutational strategies, the results imply that cancer and aging may share the non-mutational origin in the intrinsic slow dynamics of the multicellular systems. PMID:27196967

  8. EFFECTS: documentation and verification for a BEIR III cancer risk model based on age, sex, and population dynamics for BIOTRAN

    SciTech Connect

    Wenzel, W.J.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1985-09-01

    The computer simulation code EFFECTS is coupled with the radionuclide uptake and environmental transport strategies of the BIOTRAN code to predict cancer risks and deaths in a dynamic human population. Total mortalities due to all causes are incorporated with projected radiation-induced cancer mortalities caused by all previous chronic or acute radiation exposures of the population as a function of age and sex. Superpositioning radiation-induced cancer mortalities on current total mortalities in each age group allows a realistic and dynamic estimate of cancer risks for complex radiation exposure scenarios. EFFECTS was developed on the CDC 7600 and can be executed on the Cray computer system at Los Alamos National Laboratory. EFFECTS can simulate the upper boundary of cancer risk estimates where population exposures occur over many years and where organ burdens are integrated over the lifetime of the individual. This report gives new insight on age-specific cancer risks. As part of the code verification, the simulated impacts to a small population from natural background uranium and an accidental release of airborne plutonium are compared. For the long-term continuous exposure to natural background uranium, the impact to the population is very small (2 x 10/sup -6/ to 7 x 10/sup -6/ deaths/10,000 people) with young adults receiving the largest bone doses and risks. For the long-term intakes following a simulated accidental air release of plutonium, young teenagers receive the highest bone doses while young adults receive the largest risk. Simulating these two scenarios, using BIOTRAN/HUMTRN/EFFECTS, illustrates sufficient resolution to predict the age/sex-specific response from human populations from contaminants in our environment. 23 refs., 43 figs., 7 tabs.

  9. Effective groundwater modeling of the data-poor Nubian Aquifer System (Chad, Egypt, Libya, Sudan) - use of parsimony and 81Kr-based groundwater ages (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, C. I.; Soliman, S. M.; Aggarwal, P. K.

    2013-12-01

    Important information for management of large aquifer systems can be obtained via a parsimonious approach to groundwater modeling, in part, employing isotope-interpreted groundwater ages. ';Parsimonious' modeling implies active avoidance of overly-complex representations when constructing models. This approach is essential for evaluation of aquifer systems that lack informative hydrogeologic databases. Even in the most remote aquifers, despite lack of typical data, groundwater ages can be interpreted from isotope samples at only a few downstream locations. These samples incorporate hydrogeologic information from the entire upstream groundwater flowpath; thus, interpreted ages are among the most-effective information sources for groundwater model development. This approach is applied to the world's largest non-renewable aquifer, the transboundary Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) of Chad, Egypt, Libya and Sudan. In the NAS countries, water availability is a critical problem and NAS can reliably serve as a water supply for an extended future period. However, there are national concerns about transboundary impacts of water use by neighbors. These concerns include excessive depletion of shared groundwater by individual countries and the spread of water-table drawdown across borders, where neighboring country near-border shallow wells and oases may dry. Development of a parsimonious groundwater flow model, based on limited available NAS hydrogeologic data and on 81Kr groundwater ages below oases in Egypt, is a key step in providing a technical basis for international discussion concerning management of this non-renewable water resource. Simply-structured model analyses, undertaken as part of an IAEA/UNDP/GEF project, show that although the main transboundary issue is indeed drawdown crossing national boundaries, given the large scale of NAS and its plausible ranges of aquifer parameter values, the magnitude of transboundary drawdown will likely be small and may not be a

  10. Aging Successfully: A Four-Factor Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Pai-Lin; Lan, William; Yen, Tung-Wen

    2011-01-01

    The study was designed to validate a model for a successful aging process and examine the gender differences in the aging process. Three hundred twelve participants who were 65 or older completed a Taiwan Social Change Survey that measures four factors that define successful aging process: including physical, psychological, social support, and…

  11. Cognitive aging on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: a novel structural equation modeling framework with causal assumptions based on a theory of visual attention.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Simon; Wilms, L Inge

    2014-01-01

    We examined the effects of normal aging on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60-75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive aging affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; Model 2), informed by functional structures that were modeled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1). The results show that aging effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity (Model 2). These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective aging effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting aging effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive aging effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent.

  12. Calibration of models using groundwater age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.

    2011-01-01

    There have been substantial efforts recently by geochemists to determine the age of groundwater (time since water entered the system) and its uncertainty, and by hydrologists to use these data to help calibrate groundwater models. This essay discusses the calibration of models using groundwater age, with conclusions that emphasize what is practical given current limitations rather than theoretical possibilities.

  13. Regional Differences in Carbon Storage Based on Distribution of Forest Age across Russia Using the FAREAST Gap Model and Detailed Forest Inventory Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shuman, J. K.; Krankina, O. N.; Shugart, H. H.

    2007-12-01

    The FAREAST model, an individual-based forest-dynamics model, was developed to simulate forests of Changbai Mountain in northern China. It was then applied to forests at selected sites in Siberia and the Russian Far East. More recently, the model was used to generate results for expected biomass and species composition of mature forest landscapes for 223 sites across all of Russia. After these results were published, we became aware of actual forest survey data (developed by one of the authors, Krankina) arranged in 10-year intervals based on the age of the forest. Age in this case refers the age of the dominant tree cohort in a stand. These data were in percent coverage of total forest area surveyed for 36 forest sites aggregated in three regions denoted the northwest, south, and far eastern regions of Russia. This presented the opportunity to predict an expected biomass for the three regions corrected for age structure. The original simulation data was sorted to match the field data for regional forest age-cohort structure of the three regions. Thirty-four simulation sites from the original paper were distributed in the three regions used in the field study. This simulation data was re-compiled as biomass (tCha-1) for simulation plots summed at each 10 year interval from year zero to mature forests (250 years) and multiplied times the relative percent coverage in each age category. Using the expected biomass for the three regions derived from the inventory data, we obtain a picture of the current carbon storage across Russia. The potential change in carbon storage for these regions was found by calculating the difference between the expected biomass of a mature forest (250 years), the current forest state (derived from inventory data), and a managed forest condition characterized by an even distribution of age cohorts for each 10-year interval. The simulation biomass data was validated using novel cohort data arranged according to species biomass (tCha-1) from

  14. Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of methylmercury to estimate exposures in US women of childbearing age.

    PubMed

    Allen, Bruce C; Hack, C Eric; Clewell, Harvey J

    2007-08-01

    A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16-49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 microg/kg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 microg/kg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability

  15. Friendship in school-age boys with autism spectrum disorders: A meta-analytic summary and developmental, process-based model.

    PubMed

    Mendelson, Jenna L; Gates, Jacquelyn A; Lerner, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Friendship-making is considered a well-established domain of deficit for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD; American Psychiatric Association, 2013), with this population sometimes described as incapable of making friends. However, the majority of children with ASD indicate a desire for friends, and many report having friends. To what degree, then, do youth with ASD succeed in achieving friendships with peers? If and when they do succeed, by what means do these friendships emerge relative to models of typically developing (TD) youths' friendships? To address these questions, we first meta-analyzed the descriptive friendship literature (peer-reported sociometrics, self-report, parent-report) among school-age boys with ASD. Using random effects models, we found that youth with ASD do make friends according to peers and parents (Hedges's g > 2.84). However, self-reported friendship quality (Hedges's g = -1.09) and parent- and peer-reported quantity (Hedges's g < -0.63) were poorer than TD peers. We consider these findings in light of 2 conceptual frameworks for understanding social deficits in ASD (social cognition and social motivation theory) and in view of a leading model of friendship in TD youth (Hartup & Stevens, 1997). We then present a model that synthesizes these domains through the construct of social information processing speed, and thereby present the first developmental, process-based model of friendship development among youth with ASD. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26752425

  16. Friendship in school-age boys with autism spectrum disorders: A meta-analytic summary and developmental, process-based model.

    PubMed

    Mendelson, Jenna L; Gates, Jacquelyn A; Lerner, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Friendship-making is considered a well-established domain of deficit for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD; American Psychiatric Association, 2013), with this population sometimes described as incapable of making friends. However, the majority of children with ASD indicate a desire for friends, and many report having friends. To what degree, then, do youth with ASD succeed in achieving friendships with peers? If and when they do succeed, by what means do these friendships emerge relative to models of typically developing (TD) youths' friendships? To address these questions, we first meta-analyzed the descriptive friendship literature (peer-reported sociometrics, self-report, parent-report) among school-age boys with ASD. Using random effects models, we found that youth with ASD do make friends according to peers and parents (Hedges's g > 2.84). However, self-reported friendship quality (Hedges's g = -1.09) and parent- and peer-reported quantity (Hedges's g < -0.63) were poorer than TD peers. We consider these findings in light of 2 conceptual frameworks for understanding social deficits in ASD (social cognition and social motivation theory) and in view of a leading model of friendship in TD youth (Hartup & Stevens, 1997). We then present a model that synthesizes these domains through the construct of social information processing speed, and thereby present the first developmental, process-based model of friendship development among youth with ASD. (PsycINFO Database Record

  17. COnstructing Proxy-Record Age models (COPRA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marwan, Norbert; Rehfeld, Kira; Goswami, Bedartha; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. The increasing availability of high-resolution palaeoclimate time series, e.g., based on speleothem archives, has attracted some new activity in the development of alternative and novel approaches for reconstructing chronologies. Challenges in this effort are (semi-)automatic outlier, reversal, and hiatus detection and treatment, as well as the inclusion of information on age uncertainties and independent layer counting to improve the overall precision of the chronology. However, different dating strategies, different kinds of palaeoarchive formation, dating uncertainties, and different chronology construction methods cause a limited comparability of the different palaeoclimate records. We present a recently developed framework which addresses these challenges and which allows the incorporation of layer counting data to improve the reconstructed chronology of a given time series. Moreover, we introduce the concept of an "absolute" time scale, a common time axis which works as an invariant reference allowing the comparison of different palaeoclimate records. This concept translates the age uncertainties into uncertainties in the proxy values. This framework is implemented as an open source software (COPRA) for Octave and Matlab.

  18. Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model.

    PubMed

    Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V

    2016-01-01

    A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease.

  19. Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model.

    PubMed

    Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V

    2016-01-01

    A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease. PMID:27014089

  20. Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V.

    2016-01-01

    A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease. PMID:27014089

  1. Numerical solution of the Penna model of biological aging with age-modified mutation rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M. S.; Maksymowicz, A. Z.

    2009-06-01

    In this paper we present results of numerical calculation of the Penna bit-string model of biological aging, modified for the case of a -dependent mutation rate m(a) , where a is the parent’s age. The mutation rate m(a) is the probability per bit of an extra bad mutation introduced in offspring inherited genome. We assume that m(a) increases with age a . As compared with the reference case of the standard Penna model based on a constant mutation rate m , the dynamics of the population growth shows distinct changes in age distribution of the population. Here we concentrate on mortality q(a) , a fraction of items eliminated from the population when we go from age (a) to (a+1) in simulated transition from time (t) to next time (t+1) . The experimentally observed q(a) dependence essentially follows the Gompertz exponential law for a above the minimum reproduction age. Deviation from the Gompertz law is however observed for the very old items, close to the maximal age. This effect may also result from an increase in mutation rate m with age a discussed in this paper. The numerical calculations are based on analytical solution of the Penna model, presented in a series of papers by Coe [J. B. Coe, Y. Mao, and M. E. Cates, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 288103 (2002)]. Results of the numerical calculations are supported by the data obtained from computer simulation based on the solution by Coe

  2. An integrated modeling approach to age invariant face recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvi, Fahad Bashir; Pears, Russel

    2015-03-01

    This Research study proposes a novel method for face recognition based on Anthropometric features that make use of an integrated approach comprising of a global and personalized models. The system is aimed to at situations where lighting, illumination, and pose variations cause problems in face recognition. A Personalized model covers the individual aging patterns while a Global model captures general aging patterns in the database. We introduced a de-aging factor that de-ages each individual in the database test and training sets. We used the k nearest neighbor approach for building a personalized model and global model. Regression analysis was applied to build the models. During the test phase, we resort to voting on different features. We used FG-Net database for checking the results of our technique and achieved 65 percent Rank 1 identification rate.

  3. Pathology of Mouse Models of Accelerated Aging.

    PubMed

    Harkema, L; Youssef, S A; de Bruin, A

    2016-03-01

    Progeroid mouse models display phenotypes in multiple organ systems that suggest premature aging and resemble features of natural aging of both mice and humans. The prospect of a significant increase in the global elderly population within the next decades has led to the emergence of "geroscience," which aims at elucidating the molecular mechanisms involved in aging. Progeroid mouse models are frequently used in geroscience as they provide insight into the molecular mechanisms that are involved in the highly complex process of natural aging. This review provides an overview of the most commonly reported nonneoplastic macroscopic and microscopic pathologic findings in progeroid mouse models (eg, osteoporosis, osteoarthritis, degenerative joint disease, intervertebral disc degeneration, kyphosis, sarcopenia, cutaneous atrophy, wound healing, hair loss, alopecia, lymphoid atrophy, cataract, corneal endothelial dystrophy, retinal degenerative diseases, and vascular remodeling). Furthermore, several shortcomings in pathologic analysis and descriptions of these models are discussed. Progeroid mouse models are valuable models for aging, but thorough knowledge of both the mouse strain background and the progeria-related phenotype is required to guide interpretation and translation of the pathology data. PMID:26864891

  4. Species ages in neutral biodiversity models.

    PubMed

    Chisholm, Ryan A; O'Dwyer, James P

    2014-05-01

    Biogeography seeks to understand the mechanisms that drive biodiversity across long temporal and large spatial scales. Theoretical models of biogeography can be tested by comparing their predictions of quantities such as species ages against empirical estimates. It has previously been claimed that the neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography predicts species ages that are unrealistically long. Any improved theory of biodiversity must rectify this problem, but first it is necessary to quantify the problem precisely. Here we provide analytical expressions for species ages in neutral biodiversity communities. We analyse a spatially implicit metacommunity model and solve for both the zero-sum and non-zero-sum cases. We explain why our new expressions are, in the context of biodiversity, usually more appropriate than those previously imported from neutral molecular evolution. Because of the time symmetry of the spatially implicit neutral model, our expressions also lead directly to formulas for species persistence times and species lifetimes. We use our new expressions to estimate species ages of forest trees under a neutral model and find that they are about an order of magnitude shorter than those predicted previously but still unrealistically long. In light of our results, we discuss different models of biogeography that may solve the problem of species ages.

  5. Age estimation based on bone length using 12 regression models of left hand X-ray images for Asian children below 19 years old.

    PubMed

    Darmawan, M F; Yusuf, Suhaila M; Abdul Kadir, M R; Haron, H

    2015-03-01

    Age estimation was used in forensic anthropology to help in the identification of individual remains and living person. However, the estimation methods tend to be unique and applicable only to a certain population. This paper analyzed age estimation using twelve regression models carried out on X-ray images of the left hand taken from an Asian data set for subjects under the age of 19. All the nineteen bones of the left hand were measured using free image software and the statistical analysis were performed using SPSS. There are two methods to determine age in this study which are single bone method and all bones method. For single bone method, S-curve regression model was found to have the highest R-square value using second metacarpal for males, and third proximal phalanx for females. For age estimation using single bone, fifth metacarpal from males and fifth proximal phalanx from females can be used due to the lowest mean square error (MSE) value. To conclude, multiple linear regressions is the best techniques for age estimation in cases where all bones are available, but if not, S-curve regression can be used using single bone method. PMID:25456051

  6. Agent-Based Model Forecasts Aging of the Population of People Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago and Changing Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infections

    PubMed Central

    Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.

    2015-01-01

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities. PMID:26421722

  7. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-07-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater (DIC) is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, which is the time elapsed since a body of water has been in contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with ageing, i.e. the time component of circulation, and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". The latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere-ocean equilibration of 14C particularly in high latitudes where many water masses form. In the ocean's interior, preformed 14C-age behaves like a passive tracer. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. Here, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age. Between models, the variability of preformed 14C-age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combination of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics or gas exchange. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation, the choice of the gas-exchange constant from within the currently accepted range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age, it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a model's circulation on global and regional

  8. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2014-10-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, the time elapsed since a body of water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with aging, i.e. the time component of circulation and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". This latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere/ocean equilibration of 14C in particular in high latitudes where many water masses form. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability, e.g. in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. In the Atlantic, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age alone. Between models the variability of age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combinations of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics, and gas exchange in the models. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation exercise, the choice of the gas exchange constant from within the current range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a models circulation on global and regional scales. Based on the results of this study, we propose that considering

  9. Love Kills:. Simulations in Penna Ageing Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, Dietrich; Cebrat, Stanisław; Penna, T. J. P.; Sousa, A. O.

    The standard Penna ageing model with sexual reproduction is enlarged by adding additional bit-strings for love: Marriage happens only if the male love strings are sufficiently different from the female ones. We simulate at what level of required difference the population dies out.

  10. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  11. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE PAGES

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  12. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    PubMed Central

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

  13. Dynamical Masses Demonstrate the Discordant Model Ages for Upper Scorpius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Ireland, Michael; Kraus, Adam L.; Dupuy, Trent J.

    2016-01-01

    We present the results of a long term orbit monitoring program, using sparse aperture masking observations taken with NIRC2 on the Keck-II telescope, of seven G to M-type members of the Upper Scorpius subgroup of the Sco-Cen OB association. We present astrometry and derived orbital elements of the binary systems we have monitored, and also determine the age, component masses, distance and reddening for each system using the orbital solutions and multi-band photometry, including Hubble Space Telescope photometry, and a Bayesian fitting procedure. We find that the models can be forced into agreement with any individual system by assuming an age, but that ageis not consistent across the mass range of our sample. The G-type binary systems in our sample have model ages of ~11.5 Myr, which is consistent with the latest age estimates for Upper Scorpius, while the M-type binary systems have significantly younger model ages of ~7 Myr. Based on our fits to the data, this age discrepancy in the models corresponds to a luminosity under-prediction of 0.8-0.15 dex, or equivalently an effective temperature over-prediction of 100-300 K for M-type stars at a given premain-sequence age.

  14. Cervical Cancer Screening Service Uptake and Associated Factors among Age Eligible Women in Mekelle Zone, Northern Ethiopia, 2015: A Community Based Study Using Health Belief Model

    PubMed Central

    Bayu, Hinsermu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer among women worldwide, with about 500,000 new patients diagnosed and over 250,000 deaths every year. Cervical cancer screening offers protective benefits and is associated with a reduction in the incidence of invasive cervical cancer and cervical cancer mortality. But there is very low participation rate in screening for cervical cancer among low and middle-income countries. Objective This study aimed to determine cervical cancer screening service uptake and its associated factor among age eligible women in Mekelle zone, northern Ethiopia, 2015. Methods A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in Mekelle zone among age eligible women from February to June 2015. Systematic sampling technique was used to select 1286 women in to the study. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was used to collect relevant data. Data was entered and cleaned using EPINFO and analyzed using SPSS version 20 software package. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess association between dependent and independent variables with 95% CI and p-value less than 0.05 was set for association. Results The study revealed that among 1186 age eligible women, only 235(19.8%) have been screened for cervical cancer. Age (AOR = 1.799, 95%CI = 1.182–2.739), history of multiple sexual partners (AOR = 1.635, 95%CI = 1.094–2.443), history of sexually transmitted disease (AOR = 1.635,95%CI = 1.094–2.443), HIV sero status (AOR = 5.614, 95%CI = 2.595–12.144), perceived susceptibility to cervical cancer (AOR = 2.225, 95%CI = 1.308–3.783), perceived barriers to premalignant cervical lesions screening (AOR = 2.256, 95%CI = 1.447–3.517) and knowledge on cervical cancer and screening (AOR = 2.355, 95%CI = 1.155–4.802) were significant predictors of cervical cancer screening service uptake. Conclusion Magnitude of cervical cancer screening service uptake among age eligible women is still unacceptably

  15. Age Dependent Absolute Plate and Plume Motion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, D. E.; Koppers, A. A. P.

    2015-12-01

    Current absolute plate motion (APM) models from 80 - 0 Ma are constrained by the location of mantle plume related hotspot seamounts, in particular those of the Hawaiian-Emperor and Louisville seamount trails. Originally the 'fixed' hotspot hypothesis was developed to explain past plate motion based on linear age progressive intra-plate volcanism. However, now that 'moving' hotspots are accepted, it is becoming clear that APM models need to be corrected for individual plume motion vectors. For older seamount trails that were active between roughly 50 and 80 Ma the APM models that use 'fixed' hotspots overestimate the measured age progression in those trails, while APM models corrected for 'moving' hotspots underestimate those age progressions. These mismatches are due to both a lack of reliable ages in the older portions of both the Hawaii and Louisville seamount trails and insufficient APM modeling constraints from other seamount trails in the Pacific Basin. Seamounts are difficult to sample and analyze because many are hydrothermally altered and have low potassium concentrations. New 40Ar/39Ar Age results from International Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expedition 330 Sites U1372 (n=18), U1375 (n=3), U1376 (n=15) and U1377 (n=7) aid in constraining the oldest end of the Louisville Seamount trail. A significant observation in this study is that the age range recovered in the drill cores match the range of ages that were acquired on dredging cruises at the same seamounts (e.g. Koppers et al., 2011). This is important for determining the inception age of a seamount. The sections recovered from IODP EXP 330 are in-situ volcanoclastic breccia and lava flows. Comparing the seismic interpretations of Louisville guyots (Contreras-Reyes et al., 2010), Holes U1372, U1373 and U1374 penetrated the extrusive and volcanoclastic sections of the seamount. The ages obtained are consistent over stratigraphic intervals >100-450 m thick, providing evidence that these seamounts

  16. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  17. Creating Better School-Age Care Jobs: Model Work Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haack, Peggy

    Built on the premise that good school-age care jobs are the cornerstone of high-quality services for school-age youth and their families, this guide presents model work standards for school-age care providers. The guide begins with a description of the strengths and challenges of the school-age care profession. The model work standards are…

  18. Late exhumation of the Bergell pluton (Italian Alps): tectonics, climate change or Messinian base level drop? Insights from apatite (U-Th)/He ages determination and modeling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahéo, Gweltaz; Gautheron, Cécile; Hervé Leloup, Philippe; Tassant-Got, Laurent; Douville, Eric

    2010-05-01

    The Bergell pluton, is an elongated-shape granodioritic to tonalitic body emplaced during Oligocene time at 30-32 Ma along the Insubric Line in the south-central Alps. This intrusion is located immediately north of the Insubric fault, within a bloc delimited by a major strike slip and normal faults related to the eastward extrusion of the central and eastern Alps. The range lies north of the Italian great lakes, an area where the erosion related to the Messinian base-level drop is supposedly strong. In order to reconstruct the Miocene exhumation history of this pluton and to place constraints on the effect of Messinian base-level drop on erosion and uplift, we performed (U-Th)/He dating of 10 apatite samples from the Bergell area. Data from horizontal (constant elevation) profiles indicate that no significant E-W tilting occurred after ~9 Ma and that the present day relief, especially in the valley where the Insubric/Tonale line is located, is at least 9 Ma old. Apatite (U-Th)/He age versus elevation data from a vertical transect in the core of the pluton suggests a three phases exhumation/cooling history: (1) fast exhumation/cooling until 16-12 Ma, (2) slow exhumation/cooling and (3) fast exhumation/cooling after ~6 Ma. Simulations of the apatite He ages versus elevation relationship, using a trial and error method, confirm these three exhumation/cooling phases. It furthermore suggests that the final exhumation stage initiated between 4 and 6 Ma ago, and continued at a relatively high rate until present time. By comparing this timing with the onset of major climatic, tectonic and base level drop events recognized in the Southern Alps, we propose that the Messinian base-level drop has initiated the late exhumation of the Bergell. However, as this event is relatively short (less than 1 Myr) it cannot explain the post 4 Ma-high exhumation rate. It is thus suggested that the transition to a more variable climate initiating at 3-4 Ma might have maintained high erosion

  19. Virginia Opossums, Minimum Reproduction Age and Predators in the Penna Aging Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altevolmer, A. K.

    Age-specific predators are introduced into the Penna model of biological aging. It is shown that populations with a variable minimum reproduction age find a stable state with an earlier onset of reproduction, if older ages are eaten by the predators. This behavior agrees with the demographic data of the Virgina opossum.

  20. StalAge - A new algorithm especially designed for the construction of speleothem age-depth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholz, Denis; Hoffmann, Dirk

    2010-05-01

    A standard approach to construct age-depth models for speleothems on the basis of 230Th/U-ages is not available yet. Some studies apply linear interpolation between dated depths; others use least squares polynomial fits. Other authors, in turn, use various kinds of splines or even more sophisticated methods based on the general growth mechanisms of speleothems. A general approach to estimate the uncertainty of stalagmite age models has neither been developed yet. Since the exact determination of the timing and duration of climatic events recorded in speleothem calcite depends on the method used to calculate the age model, a general technique for the calculation of both the age model and its uncertainty is urgently needed. Here we present a new algorithm, especially designed for constructing age-depth models based on speleothem 230Th/U-ages. The algorithm relies on two basic assumptions: (i) the age model must increase monotonically with increasing distance from top of the stalagmite, and (ii) if possible within the associated error bars, the simplest age-depth relationship (i.e., a straight line) is fitted to the age data. Whereas the first assumption simply arises from the absolute constraint of increasing age with increasing distance from top, the second assumption avoids over-interpretation of the age data. The performance of the algorithm was tested using synthetic speleothem age data. For this purpose, a numerical model simulating (i) speleothem growth, (ii) incorporation and temporal evolution of U-series isotopes and (iii) mass spectrometric analysis was developed. This allows simulation of extreme scenarios, such as stalagmite sections including obvious outliers, age inversions and pronounced detrital contamination, and also to test the performance and robustness of the algorithm under these conditions. The developed algorithm has distinct advantages in comparison with the existing methods. Firstly, it is very robust. Outliers and age inversions are

  1. Mesoscopic model of temporal and spatial heterogeneity in aging colloids.

    PubMed

    Becker, Nikolaj; Sibani, Paolo; Boettcher, Stefan; Vivek, Skanda

    2014-12-17

    We develop a simple and effective description of the dynamics of dense hard sphere colloids in the aging regime deep in the glassy phase. Our description complements the many efforts to understand the onset of jamming in low density colloids, whose dynamics is still time-homogeneous. Based on a small set of principles, our model provides emergent dynamic heterogeneity, reproduces the known results for dense hard sphere colloids and makes detailed, experimentally-testable predictions for canonical observables in glassy dynamics. In particular, we reproduce the shape of the intermediate scattering function and particle mean-square displacements for jammed colloidal systems, and we predict a growth for the peak of the χ(4) mobility correlation function that is logarithmic in waiting-time. At the same time, our model suggests a novel unified description for the irreversible aging dynamics of structural and quenched glasses based on the dynamical properties of growing clusters of highly correlated degrees of freedom.

  2. Age depth-model based on cyclostratigraphic analysis of gamma ray data for the past 675 ka in Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgarten, Henrike; Wonik, Thomas; Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Zanchetta, Giovanni

    2015-04-01

    characteristics of the data, spectral analysis was applied (sliding window method) and a temporal evolution of several emphasized wavelength was observed. These high amplitudes were linked with orbital cycles to calculate sedimentation rates which range from 45 cm/ka to 30 cm/ka. The effect of compaction was determined and corrected sedimentation rates (average increase of 14 %) after decompaction of the sediment layers were estimated. An age depth-model was generated, which is supported by several age control points from dating of tephra (40Ar/39Ar) in the cores and thereafter the sediments from 0 mblf to 240 mblf span 675 ka.

  3. Modeling sugarcane growth in response to age, insolation, and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    How, K.T.S.

    1986-01-01

    Modeling sugarcane growth in response to age of cane, insolation and air temperature using first-order multiple regression analysis and a nonlinear approach is investigated. Data are restricted to one variety from irrigated fields to eliminate the impact of varietal response and rainfall. Ten first-order models are investigated. The predictant is cane yield from 600 field tests. The predictors are cumulative values of insolation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for 3, 6, 12, and 18 months, or for each crop period derived from weather observations near the test plots. The low R-square values indicate that the selected predictor variables could not account for a substantial proportion of the variations of cane yield and the models have limited predictive values. The nonlinear model is based on known functional relationships between growth and age, growth and insolation, and growth and maximum temperature. A mathematical expression that integrates the effect of age, insolation and maximum temperature is developed. The constant terms and coefficients of the equation are determined from the requirement that the model must produce results that are reasonable when compared with observed monthly elongation data. The nonlinear model is validated and tested using another set of data.

  4. Late Pleistocene ice age scenarios based on observational evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deblonde, G.; Peltier, W. R.

    1993-04-01

    Ice age scenarios for the last glacial-interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin (1982) concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. (1987) concerning atmospheric CO2 variations derived from the Vostok ice cores, are analyzed. Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets are simulated with an energy balance model (EBM) that is asynchronously coupled to vertically integrated ice sheet models based on the Glen flow law. The EBM includes both a realistic land-sea distribution and temperature-albedo feedback and is driven with orbital variations of effective solar insolation. With the addition of atmospheric CO2 and ocean heat flux variations, but not in their absence, a complete collapse is obtained for the Eurasian ice sheet but not for the North American ice sheet. Further feedback mechanisms, perhaps involving more accurate modeling of the dynamics of the mostly marine-based Laurentide complex, appear necessary to explain termination I.

  5. Age-depth model of the past 630 kyr for Lake Ohrid (FYROM/Albania) based on cyclostratigraphic analysis of downhole gamma ray data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgarten, H.; Wonik, T.; Tanner, D. C.; Francke, A.; Wagner, B.; Zanchetta, G.; Sulpizio, R.; Giaccio, B.; Nomade, S.

    2015-12-01

    Gamma ray (GR) fluctuations and potassium (K) values from downhole logging data obtained in the sediments of Lake Ohrid from 0 to 240 m below lake floor (b.l.f). correlate with fluctuations in δ18O values from the global benthic isotope stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). GR and K values are considered a reliable proxy to depict glacial-interglacial cycles, with high clastic input during cold and/or drier periods and high carbonate precipitation during warm and/or humid periods at Lake Ohrid. Spectral analysis was applied to investigate the climate signal and evolution over the length of the borehole. Linking downhole logging data with orbital cycles was used to estimate sedimentation rates and the effect of compaction was compensated for. Sedimentation rates increase on average by 14 % after decompaction of the sediment layers and the mean sedimentation rates shift from 45 cm kyr-1 between 0 and 110 m to 30 cm kyr-1 from 110 to 240 m b.l.f. Tuning of minima and maxima of gamma ray and potassium values versus LR04 extrema, in combination with eight independent tephrostratigraphical tie points, allows establishing of a robust age model for the downhole logging data over the past 630 kyr.

  6. Reinvestigation of age model for relative paleointensity stack and application to Lake Baikal record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oda, H.

    2014-12-01

    The age model for relative paleointensity stack PISO-1500 (Channell et al., 2009) is based on IODP U1308 from North Atlantic. Channell et al. (2008) developed the age model for U1308 by correlating the benthic oxygen isotope curve with LR04 oxygen isotope stack (Lisiecki&Raymo, 2005). LR04 stack is known as oxygen isotope stack for benthic foraminifarra, whose age model is dependent on ice volume model with a certain time lag. On the other hand, Caballero-Gill et al. (2012) developed an absolute age model based on U-Th dating for stalagmites from China and correlated the oxygen isotope curve with that on planctonic foraminiferra for a deep-sea core from South China Sea. The age model based on absolute dating for stalagmite was then transfered to oxygen isotope curve of benthic forraminiferra for the same core. This enables to provide absolute age model on PISO-1500 for the past 350 kyrs. The resulting modified PISO-1500 was applied on paleomagnetic records from Lake Baikal to provide an age model based on relative paleointensity. Finally, this age model was compared with alternative age model based on correlation of biogenic silica record with insolation at the site (Prokopenko et al., 2006) and the reason for the discrepancy will be discussed.

  7. Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauter, Sally T.

    2011-01-01

    ). Dietary data on age-0 American shad and previously published reports on the diet of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Rondorf et al. 1990, USGS unpublished data) suggested there might be considerable dietary overlap between these species in the lower Columbia River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was interested in using the American shad bioenergetics model to explore hypotheses concerning dietary overlap between age-0 American shad and emigrating fall Chinook salmon. The second modeling application uses the fall Chinook salmon bioenergetics model (Koehler et al. 2006) to explore the growth potential of juvenile fall Chinook salmon predating on age-0 American shad in the lower Columbia River. This modeling was based dietary information on a small number of age-0 fall Chinook salmon (n = 13) collected in John Day Reservoir in 1994 - 1996 (unpublished USGS data). Analysis of this dietary data found that these salmonids were feeding primarily on age-0 American shad (> 75% by weight).

  8. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  9. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  10. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  11. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  12. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  13. Mitochondrial DNA-deficient models and aging.

    PubMed

    Olgun, Abdullah; Akman, Serif

    2007-04-01

    Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) encodes 13 subunits of oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) enzyme complexes I, III, IV, and V except complex II. MtDNA is more sensitive to oxidative damage than nuclear DNA. MtDNA defects are involved in many pathologies including aging. Several mtDNA-deficient cell culture, yeast, and animal models were generated to study the role of mtDNA in many physiological processes. Ethidium bromide (EB), an agent that is known to inhibit mtDNA replication with a negligible effect on nuclear DNA, is generally used to generate mtDNA-deficient models. The antibiotics chloramphenicol and doxycycline, which were known to inhibit mitochondrial translation, were also used to generate the same phenotype. Cultured mtDNA-deficient cells need uridine and pyruvate to survive. At the organismal level, uridine can be supplemented, but pyruvate supplementation can cause a worser phenotype because of lactic acidosis. In C. elegans, EB, when used during larval development, increases life span, but decreases, when used after the beginning of adult stage. This should be kept in mind since mitochondria-related genes are generally detected in genome-wide screening studies for longevity. We believe that conditional knockout studies need to be carried out for these genes after reaching adulthood. MtDNA mutator mouse did not show an increase of free radical production. Therefore, the downstream phenomena to mtDNA defects are likely ineffective pyrimidine synthesis (dihydroorotate dehydrogenase, DHODH, needs a functional respiratory chain) and excess NADH (decreased NAD pool) in addition to free radicals. PMID:17460185

  14. Computational Thermomechanical Modelling of Early-Age Silicate Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vala, J.; Št'astník, S.; Kozák, V.

    2009-09-01

    Strains and stresses in early-age silicate composites, widely used in civil engineering, especially in fresh concrete mixtures, in addition to those caused by exterior mechanical loads, are results of complicated non-deterministic physical and chemical processes. Their numerical prediction at the macro-scale level requires the non-trivial physical analysis based on the thermodynamic principles, making use of micro-structural information from both theoretical and experimental research. The paper introduces a computational model, based on a nonlinear system of macroscopic equations of evolution, supplied with certain effective material characteristics, coming from the micro-scale analysis, and sketches the algorithm for its numerical analysis.

  15. Constraints on southern hemisphere tropical climate change during the Little Ice Age and Younger Dryas based on glacier modeling of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malone, Andrew G. O.; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Lowell, Thomas V.; Kelly, Meredith A.; Stroup, Justin S.

    2015-10-01

    Improving the late Quaternary paleoclimate record through climate interpretations of low-latitude glacier length changes advances our understanding of past climate change events and the mechanisms for past, present, and future climate change. Paleotemperature reconstructions at low-latitude glaciers are uniquely fruitful because they can provide both site-specific information and enhanced understanding of regional-scale variations due to the structure of the tropical atmosphere. We produce Little Ice Age (LIA) and Younger Dryas (YD) paleoclimate reconstructions for the Huancané outlet glacier of the Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) and low-latitude southern hemisphere regional sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using a coupled ice-flow and energy balance model. We also model the effects of long-term changes in the summit temperature and precipitiation rate and the effects of interannual climate variability on the Huancané glacier length. We find temperature to be the dominant climate driver of glacier length change. Also, we find that interannual climate variability cannot adequately explain glacier advances inferred from the geomorphic record, necessitating that these features were formed during past colder climates. To constrain our LIA reconstruction, we incorporate the QIC ice core record, finding a LIA air temperature cooling at the ice cap of between ˜0.7 °C and ˜1.1 °C and ˜0.4 °C and regional SSTs cooling of ˜0.6 °C. For the YD paleoclimate reconstructions, we propose two limits on the precipitation rate, since the ice core record does not extend into the Pleistocene: 1) the precipitation rate scales with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (upper limit on cooling) and 2) the precipitation rate increases by 40% (lower limit on cooling), which is an increase about twice as great as the regional increases realized in GCM simulations for the period. The first limit requires ˜1.6 °C cooling in ice cap air temperatures and ˜0.9 °C cooling in SSTs, and the

  16. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  17. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  18. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  19. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  20. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  1. Multiscale Concrete Modeling of Aging Degradation

    SciTech Connect

    Hammi, Yousseff; Gullett, Philipp; Horstemeyer, Mark F.

    2015-07-31

    In this work a numerical finite element framework is implemented to enable the integration of coupled multiscale and multiphysics transport processes. A User Element subroutine (UEL) in Abaqus is used to simultaneously solve stress equilibrium, heat conduction, and multiple diffusion equations for 2D and 3D linear and quadratic elements. Transport processes in concrete structures and their degradation mechanisms are presented along with the discretization of the governing equations. The multiphysics modeling framework is theoretically extended to the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) by introducing the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) and based on the XFEM user element implementation of Giner et al. [2009]. A damage model that takes into account the damage contribution from the different degradation mechanisms is theoretically developed. The total contribution of damage is forwarded to a Multi-Stage Fatigue (MSF) model to enable the assessment of the fatigue life and the deterioration of reinforced concrete structures in a nuclear power plant. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate the developed multiphysics user element implementation and the XFEM implementation of Giner et al. [2009].

  2. Biological implications of the Weibull and Gompertz models of aging.

    PubMed

    Ricklefs, Robert E; Scheuerlein, Alex

    2002-02-01

    Gompertz and Weibull functions imply contrasting biological causes of demographic aging. The terms describing increasing mortality with age are multiplicative and additive, respectively, which could result from an increase in the vulnerability of individuals to extrinsic causes in the Gompertz model and the predominance of intrinsic causes at older ages in the Weibull model. Experiments that manipulate extrinsic mortality can distinguish these biological models. To facilitate analyses of experimental data, we defined a single index for the rate of aging (omega) for the Weibull and Gompertz functions. Each function described the increase in aging-related mortality in simulated ages at death reasonably well. However, in contrast to the Weibull omega(W), the Gompertz omega(G) was sensitive to variation in the initial mortality rate independently of aging-related mortality. Comparisons between wild and captive populations appear to support the intrinsic-causes model for birds, but give mixed support for both models in mammals.

  3. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-02-01

    Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

  4. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

  5. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-02-01

    Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model.

  6. The Future of Age-Based Public Policy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hudson, Robert B.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    This issue deals with the future of an age-based public policy. Articles discuss the history of age-based public policy; the competing bases for benefits; population dynamics; Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare; employer policies; and local and state policies. Describes California's Linkages Program. (JOW)

  7. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  8. Efficacy of Female Rat Models in Translational Cardiovascular Aging Research

    PubMed Central

    Rice, K. M.; Fannin, J. C.; Gillette, C.; Blough, E. R.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in women in the United States. Aging is a primary risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease as well as cardiovascular-related morbidity and mortality. Aging is a universal process that all humans undergo; however, research in aging is limited by cost and time constraints. Therefore, most research in aging has been done in primates and rodents; however it is unknown how well the effects of aging in rat models translate into humans. To compound the complication of aging gender has also been indicated as a risk factor for various cardiovascular diseases. This review addresses the systemic pathophysiology of the cardiovascular system associated with aging and gender for aging research with regard to the applicability of rat derived data for translational application to human aging. PMID:25610649

  9. AGING PERFORMANCE OF MODEL 9975 PACKAGE FLUOROELASTOMER O-RINGS

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, E.; Daugherty, W.; Skidmore, E.; Dunn, K.; Fisher, D.

    2011-05-31

    The influence of temperature and radiation on Viton{reg_sign} GLT and GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings is an ongoing research focus at the Savannah River National Laboratory. The O-rings are credited for leaktight containment in the Model 9975 shipping package used for transportation of plutonium-bearing materials. At the Savannah River Site, the Model 9975 packages are being used for interim storage. Primary research efforts have focused on surveillance of O-rings from actual packages, leak testing of seals at bounding aging conditions and the effect of aging temperature on compression stress relaxation behavior, with the goal of service life prediction for long-term storage conditions. Recently, an additional effort to evaluate the effect of aging temperature on the oxidation of the materials has begun. Degradation in the mechanical properties of elastomers is directly related to the oxidation of the polymer. Sensitive measurements of the oxidation rate can be performed in a more timely manner than waiting for a measurable change in mechanical properties, especially at service temperatures. Measuring the oxidation rate therefore provides a means to validate the assumption that the degradation mechanisms(s) do not change from the elevated temperatures used for accelerated aging and the lower service temperatures. Monitoring the amount of oxygen uptake by the material over time at various temperatures can provide increased confidence in lifetime predictions. Preliminary oxygen consumption analysis of a Viton GLT-based fluoroelastomer compound (Parker V0835-75) using an Oxzilla II differential oxygen analyzer in the temperature range of 40-120 C was performed. Early data suggests oxygen consumption rates may level off within the first 100,000 hours (10-12 years) at 40 C and that sharp changes in the degradation mechanism (stress-relaxation) are not expected over the temperature range examined. This is consistent with the known long-term heat aging resistance of

  10. Modeling age-of-onset: Cox model with latent major gene effects

    SciTech Connect

    Li, H.; Thompson, E.A.

    1994-09-01

    Analysis of age-of-onset is a key factor in the segregation and linkage analysis of complex genetic traits, but is complicated by the censoring of unaffected individuals. Most previous work has used parametric distributional assumptions, but it is hard to characterize the distribution of age-of-onset by a single distribution. Other approaches discretize age-of-onset and use logistic regression to model incidence; this approach does not use the information fully. Frailty models have been used for age-of-oset in the biostatistics literature, but these models do not lend themselves to modeling the correlations due to genetic effects which segregate within a family. Here, we propose use of the Cox model with latent major gene effects; conditional on the major genotypes, Cox`s proportional hazards model is used for age-of-onset for each individual. This is a semiparametric model; we do not specify the baseline hazard function. Likelihood analysis of such models is restricted by the difficulty in evaluating of maximizing the likelihood, especially when data are available for some of the members of an extended pedigree. Markov chain Monte Carlo permits genotypic configurations to be realized from the posterior distributions given a current model and the observed data. Hence methods for likelihood analysis can be developed: Monte Carlo EM is used for estimation of the parameters and their variance-covariance matrix. Markers and observed covariates are easily incorporated into this analysis. We present the model, methods for likelihood analysis and the results of a simulation study. The results are comparable with those based on a Cox model with known genotypic dependence in a pedigree. An early-onset Alzheimer`s pedigree and some breast cancer pedigrees have been used as real data examples. Some possible extensions are also discussed.

  11. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans.

    PubMed

    Shagina, N B; Tolstykh, E I; Degteva, M O; Anspaugh, L R; Napier, B A

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitations for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on (90)Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has a similar structure to the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly re-evaluated: gastrointestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0-80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general populations exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

  12. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

    SciTech Connect

    Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

  13. Late pleistocene ice age scenarios based on observational evidence

    SciTech Connect

    DeBlonde, G. ); Peltier, W.R. )

    1993-04-01

    Ice age scenarios for the last glacial interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. concerning atmospheric CO[sub 2] variations derived from the Vostok ice cores, are herein analyzed. Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets are simulated with an energy balance model (EBM) that is asynchronously coupled to vertically integrated ice sheets models based on the Glen flow law. The EBM includes both a realistic land-sea distribution and temperature-albedo feedback and is driven with orbital variations of effective solar insolation. With the addition of atmospheric CO[sub 2] and ocean heat flux variations, but not in their absence, a complete collapse is obtained for the Eurasian ice sheet but not for the North American ice sheet. We therefore suggest that further feedback mechanisms, perhaps involving more accurate modeling of the dynamics of the mostly marine-based Laurentide complex appears necessary to explain termination I. 96 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. Aging and integrating spatial mental models.

    PubMed

    Copeland, David E; Radvansky, Gabriel A

    2007-09-01

    Previous research examining the process of integrating spatial information has suggested that older adults retain an ability to use mental models despite declines in working memory capacity. In the current study of both older and young adults, the authors assessed whether mental model performance declines when working memory limitations affect the ability to retain the information needed to initially construct a model. Participants were presented with 3 spatial descriptions that could have been integrated to form a single mental model (e.g., K. Ehrlich & P. N. Johnson-Laird, 1982). Descriptions were continuous (i.e., AB-BC-CD) or discontinuous (i.e., AB-CD-BC) in various stimulus formats: sentences, word diagrams, and pictures. Across the experiments, older adults showed difficulty integrating information, especially in the discontinuous condition, unless pictures were used. The results suggest that older adults' use of mental models can be compromised when spatial information is presented verbally rather than visually. PMID:17874955

  15. The OMS3 JGrass-NewAge Environmental Modelling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, G.; David, O.; Rigon, R.

    2012-12-01

    The need for integrated analysis, and the multiplicity of possible goals in analyses that require hydro-biophysical modelling, necessitates more than ever the capability of composing modelling solutions with parts of known quality, which are transparent to users and consist of reusable model components. Moreover, modern hydrological modelling requires interaction with GIS tools to allow visualizations and the data-processing necessary to synthesise knowledge from high volumes of inputs and outputs data. Last but not least, doing science that is reproducible has requirements that go beyond the computational issues to embrace the possibility to inspection the tools, and easy compare modelling solutions by third party groups. The JGrass-NewAge system was born in order to satisfy these requirements. It is based on the geographic information system uDig-JGrass, and is composed of two parts: (i) the system of visualization of the data and of the results based on uDig; (ii) the modelling components. The latter are implemented as OMS3 components which can be connected or excluded at runtime, according to the needs and works seamlessly inside the uDig Spatial Toolbox. The system is based on a hillslope-link geometrical partition of the landscape, thus the basic unit, where the water budget is evaluated, is the hillslope, and each one of them drains into a single associated link rather than cells or pixels. To this conceptual partition corresponds an implementation of informatics that uses vectorial features for channels, and raster data for hillslopes. The mass budget for each hillslope can be performed in two ways: according to a modification of Duffy dynamical model of hillslope runoff or according to HyMod lumped model. Differently from traditional rainfall-runoff models where the discharge is usually given at the outlet of a catchment, the discharge is evaluated in each link of the river network according to a procedure presented in Cuencas model. The system includes

  16. Age- and Gender-Based Populations

    MedlinePlus

    ... societal benefits of prevention, treatment, and recovery for mental and substance use disorders. Popular Programs, Campaigns, & Initiatives National Registry of Evidence-based Programs and Practices (NREPP) Medication-Assisted Treatment (MAT) Too Smart To ...

  17. A network model of human aging: Limits, errors, and information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farrell, Spencer; Mitnitski, Arnold; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew

    The Frailty Index (FI) quantifies human aging using the fraction of accumulated age-related deficits. The FI correlates strongly with mortality and accumulates non-linearly and stochastically with age. Clinical data shows a nearly universal limit of FI <= 0 . 7 . We computationally model an aging population using a network model of interacting deficits. Deficits damage and repair at rates that depend upon the average damage of connected nodes. The model is parametrized to fit clinical data. We find that attribution errors, especially false negative, allow the model to recover the frailty limit. Mutual information allows us to assess how well the FI can predict mortality. Mutual information provides a non-parametric measure of how the FI predicts mortality. We find that attribution errors have a small effect on the mutual information when many deficits are included in the model. The mutual information of our model and of the clinical data are comparable.

  18. Constraining age and rate of deformation in the northern Bolivian Andes from cross sections, cooling ages, and thermokinematic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McQuarrie, N.; Ehlers, T. A.; Rak, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    A critical component in assessing the viability of proposed plate tectonic or geodynamic processes in regions of convergence is the expected or predicted age and rate of deformation in the overriding plate. Commonly, age of deformation is inferred through geochronology of foreland basin and wedge-top sedimentary rocks and bedrock thermochronometer cooling signals. In Bolivia the original pulse of deformation of the fold-thrust belt is argue to be as young as 38-25 Ma based on the age of synorogenic strata or as old as 65-45 Ma due to proposed foreland basin rocks deposited in the Bolivian Altiplano. The large discrepancies in proposed age, rate and magnitude of deformation through the Bolivian Andes limit our ability to relate age and rate of shortening to internal geodynamic or external plate tectonic processes. We evaluate permissible ranges in age of initiation and rate of deformation through a forward kinematic model of the northern Bolivian fold-thrust belt. Each step of deformation accounts for isostatic loading from thrust faults and subsequent erosional of structural highs. The kinematic model predicts an evolution of flexural basins into which synorogenic sediments are deposited allowing us to fully integrate age of exhumation and deposition to age and magnitude of deformation. By assigning an age to each deformation step, we create a range of velocity vectors that are input into the thermokinematic model Pecube, which predicts thermochronometer cooling histories based on kinematics, topography, thermal parameters and shortening rates. We match the pattern of predicted ages with the across strike pattern of measured zircon fission track, apatite fission track and apatite (U-Th)/ He cooling ages. The sensitivity of modeled thermochronologic data to the age at which deformation initiates indicate that northern Bolivian EC started deforming at 50 Ma and may have begun as early as 55 Ma. The acceptable velocity envelope for the modeled section permits either a

  19. A potential impact of DNA repair on ageing and lifespan in the ageing model organism Podospora anserina: decrease in mitochondrial DNA repair activity during ageing.

    PubMed

    Soerensen, Mette; Gredilla, Ricardo; Müller-Ohldach, Mathis; Werner, Alexandra; Bohr, Vilhelm A; Osiewacz, Heinz D; Stevnsner, Tinna

    2009-08-01

    The free radical theory of ageing states that ROS play a key role in age-related decrease in mitochondrial function via the damage of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), proteins and lipids. In the sexually reproducing ascomycete Podospora anserina ageing is, as in other eukaryotes, associated with mtDNA instability and mitochondrial dysfunction. Part of the mtDNA instabilities may arise due to accumulation of ROS induced mtDNA lesions, which, as previously suggested for mammals, may be caused by an age-related decrease in base excision repair (BER). Alignments of known BER protein sequences with the P. anserina genome revealed high homology. We report for the first time the presence of BER activities in P. anserina mitochondrial extracts. DNA glycosylase activities decrease with age, suggesting that the increased mtDNA instability with age may be caused by decreased ability to repair mtDNA damage and hence contribute to ageing and lifespan control in this ageing model. Additionally, we find low DNA glycosylase activities in the long-lived mutants grisea and DeltaPaCox17::ble, which are characterized by low mitochondrial ROS generation. Overall, our data identify a potential role of mtDNA repair in controlling ageing and life span in P. anserina, a mechanism possibly regulated in response to ROS levels.

  20. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population. PMID:27555738

  1. The Marmoset as a Model of Aging and Age-Related Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Tardif, Suzette D.; Mansfield, Keith G.; Ratnam, Rama; Ross, Corinna N.; Ziegler, Toni E.

    2013-01-01

    The common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus) is poised to become a standard nonhuman primate aging model. With an average lifespan of 5 to 7 years and a maximum lifespan of 16.5 years, marmosets are the shortest-lived anthropoid primates. They display age-related changes in pathologies that mirror those seen in humans, such as cancer, amyloidosis, diabetes, and chronic renal disease. They also display predictable age-related differences in lean mass, calf circumference, circulating albumin, hemoglobin, and hematocrit. Features of spontaneous sensory and neurodegenerative change—for example, reduced neurogenesis, β-amyloid deposition in the cerebral cortex, loss of calbindin D28k binding, and evidence of presbycusis—appear between the ages of 7 and 10 years. Variation among colonies in the age at which neurodegenerative change occurs suggests the interesting possibility that marmosets could be specifically managed to produce earlier versus later occurrence of degenerative conditions associated with differing rates of damage accumulation. In addition to the established value of the marmoset as a model of age-related neurodegenerative change, this primate can serve as a model of the integrated effects of aging and obesity on metabolic dysfunction, as it displays evidence of such dysfunction associated with high body weight as early as 6 to 8 years of age. PMID:21411858

  2. The Healthy Ageing Model: health behaviour change for older adults.

    PubMed

    Potempa, Kathleen M; Butterworth, Susan W; Flaherty-Robb, Marna K; Gaynor, William L

    2010-01-01

    Proposed is a model of primary care for older adults with chronic health conditions that focuses on active engagement in health care. The Healthy Ageing Model is anchored in established theory on motivation and health behaviour change. The model draws on empirical and applied clinical underpinnings in such diverse areas as health promotion and education, treatment of addictions or obesity, management of chronic diseases, goal-setting, and coaching techniques. The conceptual foundation for the Healthy Ageing Model is described first, followed by a brief description of the key characteristics of the model. In conclusion, suggestions are offered for the clinical application and for further developing the model.

  3. A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper we discuss a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates or risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks.

  4. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  5. Probabilistically Constraining Age-Depth-Models of Glaciogenic Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J.; van der Bilt, W.; Tingley, M.

    2015-12-01

    Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting. All of these proxies, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments do carry some inherent dating uncertainty that is not always fully accounted for. Considerable advances could be achieved if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled, also for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Werner and Tingley (2015) demonstrated how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. In their method, probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments (Werner and Tingley 2015) show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. We show how this novel method can be applied to high resolution, sub-annually sampled lacustrine sediment records to constrain their respective age depth models. The results help to quantify the signal content and extract the regionally representative signal. The single time series can then be used as the basis for a reconstruction of glacial activity. van der Bilt et al. in prep. Werner, J.P. and Tingley, M.P. Clim. Past (2015)

  6. Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

    We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

  7. The aging feline kidney: a model mortality antagonist?

    PubMed

    Lawler, Dennis F; Evans, Richard H; Chase, Kevin; Ellersieck, Mark; Li, Qinghong; Larson, Brian T; Satyaraj, Ebenezer; Heininger, Kurt

    2006-12-01

    Traditional thinking views apparently non-programmed disruptions of aging, which medical science calls geriatric diseases, as separate from 'less harmful' morphological and physiological aging phenotypes that are more universally expected with passage of time (loss of skin elasticity, graying of hair coat, weight gain, increased sleep time, behavioral changes, etc). Late-life disease phenotypes, especially those involving chronic processes, frequently are complex and very energy-expensive. A non-programmed process of homeostatic disruption leading into a death trajectory seems inconsistent with energy intensive processes. That is, evolutionary mechanisms do not favor complex and prolonged energy investment in death. Taking a different view, the naturally occurring feline (Felis silvestris catus) renal model suggests that at least some diseases of late life represent only the point of failure in essentially survival-driven adaptive processes. In the feline renal model, individuals that succumbed to failure most frequently displayed progressive tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis, but had longer mean life span than cats that died from other causes. Additionally, among cats that died from non-renal causes, those that had degrees of renal tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis also had longer mean life span than those cats with no changes, even though causes of death differed minimally between these latter two groups. The data indicate that selective tubular deletion very frequently begins early in adult life, without a clear initiating phase or event. The observations support a hypothesis that this prolonged process may be intrinsic and protective prior to an ultimate point of failure. Moreover, given the genetic complexity and the interplay with associated risk factors, existing data also do not support the ideas that these changes are simple compensatory responses and that breed- or strain-based 'default' diseases are inevitable

  8. The aging feline kidney: a model mortality antagonist?

    PubMed

    Lawler, Dennis F; Evans, Richard H; Chase, Kevin; Ellersieck, Mark; Li, Qinghong; Larson, Brian T; Satyaraj, Ebenezer; Heininger, Kurt

    2006-12-01

    Traditional thinking views apparently non-programmed disruptions of aging, which medical science calls geriatric diseases, as separate from 'less harmful' morphological and physiological aging phenotypes that are more universally expected with passage of time (loss of skin elasticity, graying of hair coat, weight gain, increased sleep time, behavioral changes, etc). Late-life disease phenotypes, especially those involving chronic processes, frequently are complex and very energy-expensive. A non-programmed process of homeostatic disruption leading into a death trajectory seems inconsistent with energy intensive processes. That is, evolutionary mechanisms do not favor complex and prolonged energy investment in death. Taking a different view, the naturally occurring feline (Felis silvestris catus) renal model suggests that at least some diseases of late life represent only the point of failure in essentially survival-driven adaptive processes. In the feline renal model, individuals that succumbed to failure most frequently displayed progressive tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis, but had longer mean life span than cats that died from other causes. Additionally, among cats that died from non-renal causes, those that had degrees of renal tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis also had longer mean life span than those cats with no changes, even though causes of death differed minimally between these latter two groups. The data indicate that selective tubular deletion very frequently begins early in adult life, without a clear initiating phase or event. The observations support a hypothesis that this prolonged process may be intrinsic and protective prior to an ultimate point of failure. Moreover, given the genetic complexity and the interplay with associated risk factors, existing data also do not support the ideas that these changes are simple compensatory responses and that breed- or strain-based 'default' diseases are inevitable

  9. Effects of age and diet on the heavy particle-induced disruption of operant responding produced by a ground-based model for exposure to cosmic rays.

    PubMed

    Rabin, Bernard M; Joseph, James A; Shukitt-Hale, Barbara

    2005-03-01

    On missions to other planets, astronauts will be exposed to galactic cosmic rays which are composed of heavy particles (such as 56Fe) and protons. Exposure to these particles can affect the ability of rats to perform a variety of tasks, indicating that there is the possibility that the performance capabilities of astronauts may be affected. Previous research has shown that diets containing blueberry or strawberry extract can ameliorate the deficits produced by irradiation using a ground-based analog for exposure to cosmic rays. Rats were placed on diets containing 2% blueberry or strawberry extract for 2 months prior to exposure to 1.5 Gy of 1 GeV/n 56Fe particles. There were no effects on performance of any group of animals when tested on an ascending fixed-ratio operant task 6 months following exposure. When tested 12 months after exposure, the performance of the radiated animals given blueberry extract did not differ from the radiated animals fed the control diet. Both groups performed significantly poorer than the non-irradiated controls. There were no differences between the non-irradiated animals fed control diet and the radiated animals fed the strawberry diet and their performance was significantly better than of the radiated rats fed the blueberry or control diets. The results indicate that diets containing strawberry extract may provide a significant level of radiation protection on exploratory class missions.

  10. Effects of age and diet on the heavy particle-induced disruption of operant responding produced by a ground-based model for exposure to cosmic rays.

    PubMed

    Rabin, Bernard M; Joseph, James A; Shukitt-Hale, Barbara

    2005-03-01

    On missions to other planets, astronauts will be exposed to galactic cosmic rays which are composed of heavy particles (such as 56Fe) and protons. Exposure to these particles can affect the ability of rats to perform a variety of tasks, indicating that there is the possibility that the performance capabilities of astronauts may be affected. Previous research has shown that diets containing blueberry or strawberry extract can ameliorate the deficits produced by irradiation using a ground-based analog for exposure to cosmic rays. Rats were placed on diets containing 2% blueberry or strawberry extract for 2 months prior to exposure to 1.5 Gy of 1 GeV/n 56Fe particles. There were no effects on performance of any group of animals when tested on an ascending fixed-ratio operant task 6 months following exposure. When tested 12 months after exposure, the performance of the radiated animals given blueberry extract did not differ from the radiated animals fed the control diet. Both groups performed significantly poorer than the non-irradiated controls. There were no differences between the non-irradiated animals fed control diet and the radiated animals fed the strawberry diet and their performance was significantly better than of the radiated rats fed the blueberry or control diets. The results indicate that diets containing strawberry extract may provide a significant level of radiation protection on exploratory class missions. PMID:15725409

  11. The role of forest age in earth system models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulter, B.; Bellassen, V.; Lin, X.; Luyssaert, S.; Nachin, B.; Pederson, N.; Shchepashchenko, D.; Shvidenko, A.; Ciais, P.

    2012-12-01

    The age of a forest has a principal role in determining the magnitude of carbon stocks and fluxes. As forests grow older, carbon tends to accumulate in above and belowground biomass causing changes in forest canopy complexity, nutrient pools, and the balance between carbon uptake and release. While age is a standard variable for forestry models, the present generation of earth system models neglects a representation of forest age for several reasons. These include the challenge in representing sub-grid cell ecosystem heterogeneity, a poor understanding of how ecosystem processes evolve with age, and because of a lack of forest age data with which to initialize models. Here we present a globally gridded forest age distribution dataset that is derived from National Forest Inventory data and from satellite-derived disturbance frequencies. This gridded dataset is developed at 0.5° spatial resolution at the plant functional types classification level, one that is commonly used in dynamic global vegetation models. We find large national-scale differences in forest age distributions, for example, with a peak age-area for young forests in China, and more mature forests across Canada and in Russia. Comparing simulated forest carbon stocks and fluxes from three DGVM models (LPJ, ORCHIDEE, and ORCHIDEE-Forest Management) with a global forest database, we illustrate the importance of accounting for structural development as forests develop. With over half the world's forests modified by human activities, or influenced by natural disturbance, spatial patterns of forest age distributions are a necessary feature of forward models for closing the global carbon budget within a consistent modeling framework.

  12. Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

    2010-01-01

    Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

  13. Mouse models of age-related mitochondrial neurosensory hearing loss.

    PubMed

    Han, Chul; Someya, Shinichi

    2013-07-01

    Hearing loss is the most common sensory disorder in the elderly population. Overall, 10% of the population has a hearing loss in the US, and this age-related hearing disorder is projected to afflict more than 28 million Americans by 2030. Age-related hearing loss is associated with loss of sensory hair cells (sensory hearing loss) and/or spiral ganglion neurons (neuronal hearing loss) in the cochlea of the inner ear. Many lines of evidence indicate that oxidative stress and associated mitochondrial dysfunction play a central role in age-related neurodegenerative diseases and are a cause of age-related neurosensory hearing loss. Yet, the molecular mechanisms of how oxidative stress and/or mitochondrial dysfunction lead to hearing loss during aging remain unclear, and currently there is no treatment for this age-dependent disorder. Several mouse models of aging and age-related diseases have been linked to age-related mitochondrial neurosensory hearing loss. Evaluation of these animal models has offered basic knowledge of the mechanism underlying hearing loss associated with oxidative stress, mitochondrial dysfunction, and aging. Here we review the evidence that specific mutations in the mitochondrial DNA or nuclear DNA that affect mitochondrial function result in increased oxidative damage and associated loss of sensory hair cells and/or spiral ganglion neurons in the cochlea during aging, thereby causing hearing loss in these mouse models. Future studies comparing these models will provide further insight into fundamental knowledge about the disordered process of hearing and treatments to improve the lives of individuals with communication disorders. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'Mitochondrial function and dysfunction in neurodegeneration'.

  14. Diphenylamine and derivatives as predictors of gunpowder age by means of HPLC and statistical models.

    PubMed

    López-López, María; Bravo, J Carlos; García-Ruiz, Carmen; Torre, Mercedes

    2013-01-15

    The gunpowder age is information of great importance that could help to establish safety regulations related to the propellants use and manipulation. In this work, a forced aging treatment (65°C for 120 days) was applied to four gunpowders stabilized with diphenylamine (DPA). The evolution of DPA and derivatives (N-nitroso-DPA, 2-nitro-DPA, 4-nitro-DPA, and 4-4'-dinitro-DPA) concentration during the days was leaded by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). The variation with time of the peak areas of these compounds was used to construct different statistical models that could predict the gunpowders age. These models were validated using nitrocellulose-based gunpowders of known manufacture date. Models that best predicted the gunpowder age provided prediction errors lower than 6, 4, and 2 years for single-base gunpowders with dinitrotoluene (≥ 10%(m/m)), single-base gunpowders and double-base gunpowders, respectively.

  15. Aging mechanism in model Pickering emulsion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fouilloux, Sarah; Malloggi, Florent; Daillant, Jean; Thill, Antoine

    We study the stability of a model Pickering emulsion system. A special counter-flow microfluidics set-up was used to prepare monodisperse Pickering emulsions, with oil droplets in water. The wettability of the monodisperse silica nanoparticles (NPs) could be tuned by surface grafting and the surface coverage of the droplets was controlled using the microfluidics setup. A surface coverage as low as 23$\\%$ is enough to stabilize the emulsions and we evidence a new regime of Pickering emulsion stability where the surface coverage of emulsion droplets of constant size increases in time, in coexistence with a large amount of dispersed phase. Our results demonstrate that the previously observed limited coalescence regime where surface coverage tends to control the average size of the final droplets must be put in a broader perspective.

  16. Using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling to address nonlinear kinetics and changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation in deriving reference values for propylene glycol methyl ether and propylene glycol methyl ether acetate.

    SciTech Connect

    Kirman, C R.; Sweeney, Lisa M.; Corley, Rick A.; Gargas, M L.

    2005-04-01

    Reference values, including an oral reference dose (RfD) and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC), were derived for propylene glycol methyl ether (PGME), and an oral RfD was derived for its acetate (PGMEA). These values were based upon transient sedation observed in F344 rats and B6C3F1 mice during a two-year inhalation study. The dose-response relationship for sedation was characterized using internal dose measures as predicted by a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PGME and its acetate. PBPK modeling was used to account for changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation, based on data collected during weeks 1, 2, 26, 52, and 78 of a chronic inhalation study. The peak concentration of PGME in richly perfused tissues was selected as the most appropriate internal dose measure based upon a consideration of the mode of action for sedation and similarities in tissue partitioning between brain and other richly perfused tissues. Internal doses (peak tissue concentrations of PGME) were designated as either no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (LOAELs) based upon the presence or absence of sedation at each time-point, species, and sex in the two year study. Distributions of the NOAEL and LOAEL values expressed in terms of internal dose were characterized using an arithmetic mean and standard deviation, with the mean internal NOAEL serving as the basis for the reference values, which was then divided by appropriate uncertainty factors. Where data were permitting, chemical-specific adjustment factors were derived to replace default uncertainty factor values of ten. Nonlinear kinetics are were predicted by the model in all species at PGME concentrations exceeding 100 ppm, which complicates interspecies and low-dose extrapolations. To address this complication, reference values were derived using two approaches which differ with respect to the order in which these extrapolations

  17. Dental age estimation in Malay children based on all permanent teeth types.

    PubMed

    Yusof, M Y P M; Thevissen, P W; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

    2014-03-01

    The applicability of the Willems et al. model was verified on a collected sample of Malay (Malaysian nationality) children. This sample was split in a reference sample to develop a Malay-specific prediction model based on the Willems et al. method and in a test sample to validate this new developed model. Next, the incorporation of third molars into this model was analyzed. Panoramic radiographs (n = 1,403) of Malay children aged between 4 and 14.99 years (n = 702) and subadults aged between 15 and 23.99 years (n = 701) were collected. The left mandibular seven permanent teeth of the children were scored based on the staging technique described by Demirjian and converted to age using the Willems et al. method. Third molar development of all individuals was staged based on the technique described by Gleiser and Hunt modified by Kohler. Differences between dental age and chronological age were calculated and expressed in mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The Willems et al. model verified on the collected Malay children overestimated chronological age with a ME around 0.45 year. Small differences in ME, MAE, and RMSE between the verified Malay-specific prediction model and the Willems et al. model were observed. An overall neglected decrease in RMSE was detected adding third molar stages to the developed permanent teeth model.

  18. Olfactory memory: a bridge between humans and animals in models of cognitive aging.

    PubMed

    Eichenbaum, Howard; Robitsek, R Jonathan

    2009-07-01

    Odor-recognition memory in rodents may provide a valuable model of cognitive aging. In a recent study we used signal detection analyses to distinguish odor recognition based on recollection versus that based on familiarity. Aged rats were selectively impaired in recollection, with relative sparing of familiarity, and the deficits in recollection were correlated with spatial memory impairments. These results complement electrophysiological findings indicating age-associated deficits in the ability of hippocampal neurons to differentiate contextual information, and this information-processing impairment may underlie the common age-associated decline in olfactory and spatial memory.

  19. Model based manipulator control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petrosky, Lyman J.; Oppenheim, Irving J.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using model based control (MBC) for robotic manipulators was investigated. A double inverted pendulum system was constructed as the experimental system for a general study of dynamically stable manipulation. The original interest in dynamically stable systems was driven by the objective of high vertical reach (balancing), and the planning of inertially favorable trajectories for force and payload demands. The model-based control approach is described and the results of experimental tests are summarized. Results directly demonstrate that MBC can provide stable control at all speeds of operation and support operations requiring dynamic stability such as balancing. The application of MBC to systems with flexible links is also discussed.

  20. The analysis of aging skin based on multiphoton microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shulian; Li, Hui; Zhang, Xiaoman; Li, Zhifang; Xu, Shufei

    2010-11-01

    Aging is a very important issue not only in dermatology, but also in cosmetic science. Cutaneous aging involves both chronological and photoaging aging process. The chronological aging is induced with the passage of time. And the photoaging skin is the extrinsic aging caused by sun exposure. The aim of this study is to use multiphoton microscopy (MPM) in vivo to assess intrinsic-age-related and photo-age-related difference. The changes of dermal collagen are measured in quantitively. The algorithm that we used automatically produced the transversal dermal map from MPM. Others, the texture of dermis are analyzed by Fourier transform and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix. And the object extraction in textured images is proposed based on the method in object edge extraction, and the aim of it is to detect the object hidden in the skin texture in difference aging skin. The result demonstrates that the approach is effective in detecting the object in epidermis and dermis textured image in different aging skin. It could help to further understand the aging mechanism.

  1. Oxidative Stress, Aging and CNS disease in the Canine Model of Human Brain Aging

    PubMed Central

    Head, Elizabeth; Rofina, Jaime; Zicker, Steven

    2008-01-01

    SYNOPSIS Decline in cognitive functions that accompany aging in dogs may have a biological basis, and many of the disorders associated with aging in canines may be mitigated through dietary modifications that incorporate specific nutraceuticals. Based on previous research and the results of both laboratory and clinical studies – antioxidants may be one class of nutraceutical that provides benefits to aged dogs. Brains of aged dogs accumulate oxidative damage to proteins and lipids, which may lead to dysfunction of neuronal cells. The production of free radicals and lack of increase in compensatory antioxidant enzymes may lead to detrimental modifications to important macromolecules within neurons. Reducing oxidative damage through food ingredients rich in a broad spectrum of antioxidants significantly improves, or slows the decline of, learning and memory in aged dogs. However, determining all effective compounds and combinations, dosage ranges, as well as when to initiate intervention and long term effects constitute gaps in our current knowledge. PMID:18249248

  2. Oxidative stress, aging, and central nervous system disease in the canine model of human brain aging.

    PubMed

    Head, Elizabeth; Rofina, Jaime; Zicker, Steven

    2008-01-01

    Decline in cognitive functions that accompany aging in dogs may have a biologic basis, and many of the disorders associated with aging in dogs may be mitigated through dietary modifications that incorporate specific nutraceuticals. Based on previous research and the results of laboratory and clinical studies, antioxidants may be one class of nutraceutical that provides benefits to aged dogs. Brains of aged dogs accumulate oxidative damage to proteins and lipids, which may lead to dysfunction of neuronal cells. The production of free radicals and lack of increase in compensatory antioxidant enzymes may lead to detrimental modifications to important macromolecules within neurons. Reducing oxidative damage through food ingredients rich in a broad spectrum of antioxidants significantly improves, or slows the decline of, learning and memory in aged dogs.

  3. Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Age and Gender

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Martin C.S.; Ching, Jessica Y.L.; Chan, Victor C.W.; Lam, Thomas Y.T.; Luk, Arthur K.C.; Wong, Sunny H.; Ng, Siew C.; Ng, Simon S.M.; Wu, Justin C.Y.; Chan, Francis K.L.; Sung, Joseph J.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We evaluated whether age- and gender-based colorectal cancer screening is cost-effective. Recent studies in the United States identified age and gender as 2 important variables predicting advanced proximal neoplasia, and that women aged <60 to 70 years were more suited for sigmoidoscopy screening due to their low risk of proximal neoplasia. Yet, quantitative assessment of the incremental benefits, risks, and cost remains to be performed. Primary care screening practice (2008–2015). A Markov modeling was constructed using data from a screening cohort. The following strategies were compared according to the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for 1 life-year saved: flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) 5 yearly; colonoscopy 10 yearly; FS for each woman at 50- and 55-year old followed by colonoscopy at 60- and 70-year old; FS for each woman at 50-, 55-, 60-, and 65-year old followed by colonoscopy at 70-year old; FS for each woman at 50-, 55-, 60-, 65-, and 70-year old. All male subjects received colonoscopy at 50-, 60-, and 70-year old under strategies 3 to 5. From a hypothetical population of 100,000 asymptomatic subjects, strategy 2 could save the largest number of life-years (4226 vs 2268 to 3841 by other strategies). When compared with no screening, strategy 5 had the lowest ICER (US$42,515), followed by strategy 3 (US$43,517), strategy 2 (US$43,739), strategy 4 (US$47,710), and strategy 1 (US$56,510). Strategy 2 leads to the highest number of bleeding and perforations, and required a prohibitive number of colonoscopy procedures. Strategy 5 remains the most cost-effective when assessed with a wide range of deterministic sensitivity analyses around the base case. From the cost effectiveness analysis, FS for women and colonoscopy for men represent an economically favorable screening strategy. These findings could inform physicians and policy-makers in triaging eligible subjects for risk-based screening, especially in countries with limited colonoscopic

  4. Exact solution of an evolutionary model without aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onody, Roberto N.; de Medeiros, Nazareno G. F.

    1999-09-01

    We introduce an age-structured asexual population model containing all the relevant features of evolutionary aging theories. Beneficial as well as deleterious mutations, heredity, and arbitrary fecundity are present and managed by natural selection. An exact solution without aging is found. We show that fertility is associated with generalized forms of the Fibonacci sequence, while mutations and natural selection are merged into an integral equation which is solved by Fourier series. Average survival probabilities and Malthusian growth exponents are calculated and indicate that the system may exhibit mutational meltdown. The relevance of the model in the context of fissile reproduction groups like many protozoa and coelenterates is discussed.

  5. The Development of Small Primate Models for Aging Research

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Kathleen E.; Austad, Steven N.

    2015-01-01

    Nonhuman primate (NHP) aging research has traditionally relied mainly on the rhesus macaque. But the long lifespan, low reproductive rate, and relatively large body size of macaques and related Old World monkeys make them less than ideal models for aging research. Manifold advantages would attend the use of smaller, more rapidly developing, shorter-lived NHP species in aging studies, not the least of which are lower cost and the ability to do shorter research projects. Arbitrarily defining “small” primates as those weighing less than 500 g, we assess small, relatively short-lived species among the prosimians and callitrichids for suitability as models for human aging research. Using the criteria of availability, knowledge about (and ease of) maintenance, the possibility of genetic manipulation (a hallmark of 21st century biology), and similarities to humans in the physiology of age-related changes, we suggest three species—two prosimians (Microcebus murinus and Galago senegalensis) and one New World monkey (Callithrix jacchus)—that deserve scrutiny for development as major NHP models for aging studies. We discuss one other New World monkey group, Cebus spp., that might also be an effective NHP model of aging as these species are longer-lived for their body size than any primate except humans. PMID:21411860

  6. Translating CFC-based piston ages into probability density functions of ground-water age in karst

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2006-01-01

    Temporal age distributions are equivalent to probability density functions (PDFs) of transit time. The type and shape of a PDF provides important information related to ground-water mixing at the well or spring and the complex nature of flow networks in karst aquifers. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentrations measured for samples from 12 locations in the karstic Madison aquifer were used to evaluate the suitability of various PDF types for this aquifer. Parameters of PDFs could not be estimated within acceptable confidence intervals for any of the individual sites. Therefore, metrics derived from CFC-based apparent ages were used to evaluate results of PDF modeling in a more general approach. The ranges of these metrics were established as criteria against which families of PDFs could be evaluated for their applicability to different parts of the aquifer. Seven PDF types, including five unimodal and two bimodal models, were evaluated. Model results indicate that unimodal models may be applicable to areas close to conduits that have younger piston (i.e., apparent) ages and that bimodal models probably are applicable to areas farther from conduits that have older piston ages. The two components of a bimodal PDF are interpreted as representing conduit and diffuse flow, and transit times of as much as two decades may separate these PDF components. Areas near conduits may be dominated by conduit flow, whereas areas farther from conduits having bimodal distributions probably have good hydraulic connection to both diffuse and conduit flow. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy.

    PubMed

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population.

  8. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population. PMID:27293889

  9. The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

    PubMed

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-11-01

    Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms.

  10. Overview of Modeling and Simulations of Plutonium Aging

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, A J; Wolfer, W G

    2007-04-24

    . The alpha particle traverses the lattice, slowly loosing energy through electronic excitations, acquiring two electrons to become a helium atom, then finally coming to rest approximately 10 microns away with the generation of a few-hundred Frenkel pairs. The uranium recoil immediately displaces a couple-thousand Pu atoms from their original lattice sites. This process, which occurs at a rate of approximately 41 parts-per-million per year, is the source of potential property changes in aging plutonium. Plutonium aging encompasses many areas of research: radiation damage and radiation effects, diffusion of point defects, impurities and alloying elements, solid state phase transformations, dislocation dynamics and mechanical properties, equations of state under extreme pressures, as well as surface oxidation and corrosion. Theory, modeling, and computer simulations are involved to various degrees in many of these areas. The joint research program carried out at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory encompassed experimental measurements of numerous properties of newly fabricated reference alloys, archival material that have accumulated the effects of several decades of radioactive decay, and accelerated aging alloys in which the isotropic composition was adjusted to increase the rate of self-irradiation damage. In particular, the physical and chemical processes of nuclear materials degradation were to be studied individually and in great depth. Closely coupled to the experimental efforts are theory, modeling, and simulations. These efforts, validated by the experiments, aim to develop predictive models to evaluate the effects of age on the properties of plutonium. The need to obtain a scientific understanding of plutonium aging has revitalized fundamental research on actinides and plutonium in particular. For example, the experimental discovery of superconductivity in Pu-based compounds, the observation of helium bubbles in naturally

  11. Invertebrates as model organisms for research on aging biology

    PubMed Central

    Murthy, Mahadev; Ram, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Invertebrate model systems, such as nematodes and fruit flies, have provided valuable information about the genetics and cellular biology involved in aging. However, limitations of these simple, genetically tractable organisms suggest the need for other model systems, some of them invertebrate, to facilitate further advances in the understanding of mechanisms of aging and longevity in mammals, including humans. This paper introduces 10 review articles about the use of invertebrate model systems for the study of aging by authors who participated in an ‘NIA-NIH symposium on aging in invertebrate model systems’ at the 2013 International Congress for Invertebrate Reproduction and Development. In contrast to the highly derived characteristics of nematodes and fruit flies as members of the superphylum Ecdysozoa, cnidarians, such as Hydra, are more ‘basal’ organisms that have a greater number of genetic orthologs in common with humans. Moreover, some other new model systems, such as the urochordate Botryllus schlosseri, the tunicate Ciona, and the sea urchins (Echinodermata) are members of the Deuterostomia, the same superphylum that includes all vertebrates, and thus have mechanisms that are likely to be more closely related to those occurring in humans. Additional characteristics of these new model systems, such as the recent development of new molecular and genetic tools and a more similar pattern to humans of regeneration and stem cell function suggest that these new model systems may have unique advantages for the study of mechanisms of aging and longevity. PMID:26241448

  12. Age dependency of base modification in rabbit liver DNA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yamamoto, O.; Fuji, I.; Yoshida, T.; Cox, A. B.; Lett, J. T.

    1988-01-01

    Age-related modifications of DNA bases have been observed in the liver of the New Zealand white (NZW) rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), a lagomorph with a median life span in captivity of 5-7 yr. The ages of the animals studied ranged from 6 wk to 9 yr. After the DNA had been extracted from the liver cell nuclei and hydrolyzed with acid, the bases were analyzed by column chromatography with Cellulofine gels (GC-15-m). Two peaks in the chromatogram, which eluted before the four DNA bases, contained modified bases. Those materials, which were obtained in relatively large amounts from old animals, were highly fluorescent, and were shown to be crosslinked base products by mass spectrometry. The yield of crosslinked products versus rabbit age (greater than 0.5 yr) can be fitted by an exponential function (correlation coefficient: 0.76 +/- 0.09).

  13. Preparing the workforce for healthy aging programs: the Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP) model.

    PubMed

    Frank, Janet C; Altpeter, Mary; Damron-Rodriguez, JoAnn; Driggers, Joann; Lachenmayr, Susan; Manning, Colleen; Martinez, Dana M; Price, Rachel M; Robinson, Patricia

    2014-10-01

    Current public health and aging service agency personnel have little training in gerontology, and virtually no training in evidence-based health promotion and disease management programs for older adults. These programs are rapidly becoming the future of our community-based long-term care support system. The purpose of this project was to develop and test a model community college career technical education program, Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP), for undergraduate college students, current personnel in aging service and community organizations, and others interested in retraining. A multidisciplinary cross-sector team from disciplines of public health, sociology, gerontology and nursing developed four competency-based courses that focus on healthy aging, behavior change strategies, program management, an internship, and an option for leader training in the Chronic Disease Self-Management Program. To enhance implementation and fidelity, intensive faculty development training was provided to all instructors and community agency partners. Baseline and postprogram evaluation of competencies for faculty and students was conducted. Process evaluation for both groups focused on satisfaction with the curricula and suggestions for program improvement. SHARP has been piloted five times at two community colleges. Trainees (n = 113) were primarily community college students (n = 108) and current aging service personnel (n = 5). Statistically significant improvements in all competencies were found for both faculty and students. Process evaluation outcomes identified the needed logical and component adaptations to enhance the feasibility of program implementation, dissemination, and student satisfaction. The SHARP program provides a well-tested, evidence-based effective model for addressing workforce preparation in support of healthy aging service program expansion and delivery.

  14. Age and equity in liver transplantation: An organ allocation model.

    PubMed

    Cucchetti, Alessandro; Ross, Lainie Friedman; Thistlethwaite, J Richard; Vitale, Alessandro; Ravaioli, Matteo; Cescon, Matteo; Ercolani, Giorgio; Burra, Patrizia; Cillo, Umberto; Pinna, Antonio Daniele

    2015-10-01

    A moral liver allocation policy must be fair. We considered a 2-step, 2-principle allocation system called "age mapping." Its first principle, equal opportunity, ensures that candidates of all ages have an equal chance of getting an organ. Its second principle, prudential lifespan equity, allocates younger donor grafts to younger candidates and older donors to older candidates in order to increase the likelihood that all recipients achieve a "full lifespan." Data from 2476 candidates and 1371 consecutive adult liver transplantations (from 1999 to 2012) were used to determine whether age mapping can reduce the gap in years of life lost (YLL) between younger and older recipients. A parametric Weibull prognostic model was developed to estimate total life expectancy after transplantation using survival of the general population matched by sex and age as a reference. Life expectancy from birth was calculated by adding age at transplant and total life expectancy after transplantation. In multivariate analysis, recipient age, hepatitis C virus status, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at transplant of >30, and donor age were significantly related to prognosis after surgery (P < 0.05). The mean (and standard deviation) number of years of life from birth, calculated from the current allocation model, for various age groups were: recipients 18-47 years (n = 340) = 65.2 (3.3); 48-55 years (n = 387) = 72.7 (2.1); 56-61 years (n = 372) = 74.7 (1.7) and for recipients >61 years (n = 272) = 77.4 (1.4). The total number of YLL equaled 523 years. Redistributing liver grafts, using an age mapping algorithm, reduces the lifespan gap between younger and older candidates by 33% (from 12.3% to 8.3%) and achieves a 14% overall reduction of YLL (73 years) compared to baseline liver distribution. In conclusion, deliberately incorporating age into an allocation algorithm promotes fairness and increases efficiency.

  15. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    PubMed

    Li, Guoqi; Zhao, Daxuan; Xu, Yi; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables. PMID:26382594

  16. Age equity in different models of primary care practice in Ontario

    PubMed Central

    Dahrouge, Simone; Hogg, William; Tuna, Meltem; Russell, Grant; Devlin, Rose Ann; Tugwell, Peter; Kristjansson, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess whether the model of service delivery affects the equity of the care provided across age groups. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Ontario. Participants One hundred thirty-seven practices, including traditional fee-for-service practices, salaried community health centres (CHCs), and capitation-based family health networks and health service organizations. Main outcome measures To compare the quality of care across age groups using multilevel linear or logistic regressions. Health service delivery measures and health promotion were assessed through patient surveys (N = 5111), which were based on the Primary Care Assessment Tool, and prevention and chronic disease management were assessed, based on Canadian recommendations for care, through chart abstraction (N = 4 108). Results Older individuals reported better health service delivery in all models. This age effect ranged from 1.9% to 5.7%, and was larger in the 2 capitation-based models. Individuals aged younger than 30 years attending CHCs had more features of disadvantage (ie, living below the poverty line and without high school education) and were more likely than older individuals to report discussing at least 1 health promotion subject at the index visit. These differences were deemed an appropriate response to greater needs in these younger individuals. The prevention score showed an age-sex interaction in all models, with adherence to recommended care dropping with age for women. These results are largely attributable to the fact that maneuvers recommended for younger women are considerably more likely to be performed than other maneuvers. Chronic disease management scores showed an inverted U relationship with age in fee-for-service practices, family health networks, and health service organizations but not in CHCs. Conclusion The salaried model might have an organizational structure that is more conducive to providing appropriate care across age groups. The thrust toward

  17. [Morphofunctional and molecular bases of pineal gland aging].

    PubMed

    Khavinson, V Kh; Lin'kova, N S

    2012-01-01

    The review analyzed morphology, molecular and functional aspects of pineal gland aging and methods of it correction. The pineal gland is central organ, which regulates activity of neuroimmunoendocrine, antioxidant and other organisms systems. Functional activity of pineal gland is discreased at aging, which is the reason of melatonin level changing. The molecular and morphology research demonstrated, that pineal gland hadn't strongly pronounced atrophy at aging. Long-term experience showed, that peptides extract of pineal gland epithalamin and synthetic tetrapeptide on it base epithalon restored melatonin secretion in pineal gland and had strong regulatory activity at neuroimmunoendocrine and antioxidant organism systems.

  18. Justification of sexual reproduction by modified Penna model of ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá Martins, J. S.; Stauffer, D.

    2001-05-01

    We generalize the standard Penna bit-string model of biological ageing by assuming that each deleterious mutation diminishes the survival probability in every time interval by a small percentage. This effect is added to the usual lethal but age-dependent effect of the same mutation. We then find strong advantages or disadvantages of sexual reproduction (with males and females) compared to asexual cloning, depending on parameters.

  19. Aging well socially through engagement with life: adapting Rowe and Kahn's model of successful aging to Chinese cultural context.

    PubMed

    Ng, Sik Hung; Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Chong, Alice M L; Woo, Jean; Kwan, Alex Y H; Lai, Stephanie

    2011-01-01

    Although aging well socially (engagement with life) is as important as aging well personally (illness avoidance and functioning) (Rowe & Kahn, 1998), it has received less research attention. A caring (CE) and a productive (PE) form of engagement were derived from an analysis of Chinese cultural meanings of engagement, and combined with illness avoidance and functioning to form a 4-factor model. Confirmatory factor analysis based on 2970 Hong Kong Chinese (40 to 74 years) showed a good model fit that was replicated a year later with 2120 of the original sample. Further analysis led to a more parsimonious model where illness avoidance and functioning converged into a single second-order factor whereas CE and PE remained as distinct first-order factors. The results supported the differentiation of Rowe and Kahn's engagement with life component into caring and productive engagements.

  20. Model-Based Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frisch, Harold P.

    2007-01-01

    Engineers, who design systems using text specification documents, focus their work upon the completed system to meet Performance, time and budget goals. Consistency and integrity is difficult to maintain within text documents for a single complex system and more difficult to maintain as several systems are combined into higher-level systems, are maintained over decades, and evolve technically and in performance through updates. This system design approach frequently results in major changes during the system integration and test phase, and in time and budget overruns. Engineers who build system specification documents within a model-based systems environment go a step further and aggregate all of the data. They interrelate all of the data to insure consistency and integrity. After the model is constructed, the various system specification documents are prepared, all from the same database. The consistency and integrity of the model is assured, therefore the consistency and integrity of the various specification documents is insured. This article attempts to define model-based systems relative to such an environment. The intent is to expose the complexity of the enabling problem by outlining what is needed, why it is needed and how needs are being addressed by international standards writing teams.

  1. Dynamical Masses of Young Stars. I. Discordant Model Ages of Upper Scorpius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Ireland, Michael J.; Dupuy, Trent J.; Kraus, Adam L.

    2016-02-01

    We present the results of a long-term orbit monitoring program, using sparse aperture masking observations taken with NIRC2 on the Keck-II telescope, of seven G- to M-type members of the Upper Scorpius subgroup of the Sco-Cen OB association. We present astrometry and derived orbital elements of the binary systems we have monitored, and also determine the age, component masses, distance, and reddening for each system using the orbital solutions and multi-band photometry, including Hubble Space Telescope photometry, and a Bayesian fitting procedure. We find that the models can be forced into agreement with any individual system by assuming an age, but that age is not consistent across the mass range of our sample. The G-type binary systems in our sample have model ages of ˜11.5 Myr, which is consistent with the latest age estimates for Upper Scorpius, while the M-type binary systems have significantly younger model ages of ˜7 Myr. Based on our fits, this age discrepancy in the models corresponds to a luminosity underprediction of 0.8-0.15 dex, or equivalently an effective temperature overprediction of 100-300 K for M-type stars at a given pre-main-sequence age. We also find that the M-type binary system RXJ 1550.0-2312 has an age (˜16 Myr) and distance (˜85 pc) consistent with membership in the Upper Centaurus Lupus subgroup.

  2. Mathematical Model of Three Age-Structured Transmission Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus

    PubMed Central

    Agusto, Folashade B.; Easley, Shamise; Freeman, Kenneth; Thomas, Madison

    2016-01-01

    We developed a new age-structured deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus. The model is analyzed to gain insights into the qualitative features of its associated equilibria. Some of the theoretical and epidemiological findings indicate that the stable disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes, in the presence of disease induced mortality, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Further analysis of the model indicates that the qualitative dynamics of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. This is further emphasized by the sensitivity analysis results, which shows that the dominant parameters of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. However, the numerical simulations show the flaw of the exclusion of age in the transmission dynamics of chikungunya with regard to control implementations. The exclusion of age structure fails to show the age distribution needed for an effective age based control strategy, leading to a one size fits all blanket control for the entire population. PMID:27190548

  3. Using physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling to address nonlinear kinetics and changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation in deriving reference values for propylene glycol methyl ether and propylene glycol methyl ether acetate.

    PubMed

    Kirman, C R; Sweeney, L M; Corley, R; Gargas, M L

    2005-04-01

    Reference values, including an oral reference dose (RfD) and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC), were derived for propylene glycol methyl ether (PGME), and an oral RfD was derived for its acetate (PGMEA). These values were based on transient sedation observed in F344 rats and B6C3F1 mice during a two-year inhalation study. The dose-response relationship for sedation was characterized using internal dose measures as predicted by a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PGME and its acetate. PBPK modeling was used to account for changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation, based on data collected during Weeks 1, 2, 26, 52, and 78 of a chronic inhalation study. The peak concentration of PGME in richly perfused tissues (i.e., brain) was selected as the most appropriate internal dose measure based on a consideration of the mode of action for sedation and similarities in tissue partitioning between brain and other richly perfused tissues. Internal doses (peak tissue concentrations of PGME) were designated as either no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (LOAELs) based on the presence or the absence of sedation at each time point, species, and sex in the two-year study. Distributions of the NOAEL and LOAEL values expressed in terms of internal dose were characterized using an arithmetic mean and standard deviation, with the mean internal NOAEL serving as the basis for the reference values, which was then divided by appropriate uncertainty factors. Where data were permitting, chemical-specific adjustment factors were derived to replace default uncertainty factor values of 10. Nonlinear kinetics, which was predicted by the model in all species at PGME concentrations exceeding 100 ppm, complicate interspecies, and low-dose extrapolations. To address this complication, reference values were derived using two approaches that differ with respect to the order in which these

  4. Why is the dog an ideal model for aging research?

    PubMed

    Gilmore, Keiva M; Greer, Kimberly A

    2015-11-01

    With many caveats to the traditional vertebrate species pertaining to biogerontology investigations, it has been suggested that a most informative model is the one which: 1) examines closely related species, or various members of the same species with naturally occurring lifespan variation, 2) already has adequate medical procedures developed, 3) has a well annotated genome, 4) does not require artificial housing, and can live in its natural environment while being investigated, and 5) allows considerable information to be gathered within a relatively short period of time. The domestic dog unsurprisingly fits each criterion mentioned. The dog has already become a key model system in which to evaluate surgical techniques and novel medications because of the remarkable similarity between human and canine conditions, treatments, and response to therapy. The dog naturally serves as a disease model for study, obviating the need to construct artificial genetically modified examples of disease. Just as the dog offers a natural model for human conditions and diseases, simple observation leads to the conclusion that the canine aging phenotype also mimics that of the human. Genotype information, biochemical information pertaining to the GH/IGF-1 pathway, and some limited longitudinal investigations have begun the establishment of the domestic dog as a model of aging. Although we find that dogs indeed are a model to study aging and there are many independent pieces of canine aging data, there are many more "open" areas, ripe for investigation. PMID:26325590

  5. Cellular senescence in the Penna model of aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Periwal, Avikar

    2013-11-01

    Cellular senescence is thought to play a major role in age-related diseases, which cause nearly 67% of all human deaths worldwide. Recent research in mice showed that exercising mice had higher levels of telomerase, an enzyme that helps maintain telomere length, than nonexercising mice. A commonly used model for biological aging was proposed by Penna. I propose a modification of the Penna model that incorporates cellular senescence and find an analytical steady-state solution following Coe, Mao, and Cates [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.89.288103 89, 288103 (2002)]. I find that models corresponding to delayed cellular senescence have younger populations that live longer. I fit the model to the United Kingdom's death distribution, which the original Penna model cannot do.

  6. The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

    2014-07-01

    A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in

  7. Age-Related Differences in the Accuracy of Web Query-Based Predictions of Influenza-Like Illness

    PubMed Central

    Domnich, Alexander; Panatto, Donatella; Signori, Alessio; Lai, Piero Luigi; Gasparini, Roberto; Amicizia, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    Background Web queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI). However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspective of age. Methods Since Google Flu Trends is unavailable in Italy, Google Trends was used to identify entry terms that correlated highly with official ILI surveillance data. All-age and age-class-specific modeling was performed by means of linear models with generalized least-square estimation. Hold-out validation was used to quantify prediction accuracy. For purposes of comparison, predictions generated by exponential smoothing were computed. Results Five search terms showed high correlation coefficients of > .6. In comparison with exponential smoothing, the all-age query-based model correctly predicted the peak time and yielded a higher correlation coefficient with observed ILI morbidity (.978 vs. .929). However, query-based prediction of ILI morbidity was associated with a greater error. Age-class-specific query-based models varied significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. In the 0–4 and 25–44-year age-groups, these did well and outperformed exponential smoothing predictions; in the 15–24 and ≥ 65-year age-classes, however, the query-based models were inaccurate and highly overestimated peak height. In all but one age-class, peak timing predicted by the query-based models coincided with observed timing. Conclusions The accuracy of web query-based models in predicting ILI morbidity rates could differ among ages. Greater age-specific detail may be useful in flu query-based studies in order to account for age-specific features of the epidemiology of ILI. PMID:26011418

  8. Content-based image retrieval applied to bone age assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Benedikt; Brosig, André; Welter, Petra; Grouls, Christoph; Günther, Rolf W.; Deserno, Thomas M.

    2010-03-01

    Radiological bone age assessment is based on local image regions of interest (ROI), such as the epiphysis or the area of carpal bones. These are compared to a standardized reference and scores determining the skeletal maturity are calculated. For computer-aided diagnosis, automatic ROI extraction and analysis is done so far mainly by heuristic approaches. Due to high variations in the imaged biological material and differences in age, gender and ethnic origin, automatic analysis is difficult and frequently requires manual interactions. On the contrary, epiphyseal regions (eROIs) can be compared to previous cases with known age by content-based image retrieval (CBIR). This requires a sufficient number of cases with reliable positioning of the eROI centers. In this first approach to bone age assessment by CBIR, we conduct leaving-oneout experiments on 1,102 left hand radiographs and 15,428 metacarpal and phalangeal eROIs from the USC hand atlas. The similarity of the eROIs is assessed by cross-correlation of 16x16 scaled eROIs. The effects of the number of eROIs, two age computation methods as well as the number of considered CBIR references are analyzed. The best results yield an error rate of 1.16 years and a standard deviation of 0.85 years. As the appearance of the hand varies naturally by up to two years, these results clearly demonstrate the applicability of the CBIR approach for bone age estimation.

  9. Multilevel Risk Models for Retrospective Age-of-Onset Data: School Children's First Cigarette.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pickles, Andrew; Pickering, Kevin; Taylor, Colin; Sutton, Stephen; Yang, Shuying

    2001-01-01

    Describes a random effects discrete time survival model that addresses problems of measurement error and sample design complexities. Demonstrates the effectiveness of the model in an analysis of retrospective report data on the age of onset of smoking from two cross-sectional school-based studies. (JPB)

  10. Human Age Estimation Based on Locality and Ordinal Information.

    PubMed

    Li, Changsheng; Liu, Qingshan; Dong, Weishan; Zhu, Xiaobin; Liu, Jing; Lu, Hanqing

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel feature selection-based method for facial age estimation. The face aging is a typical temporal process, and facial images should have certain ordinal patterns in the aging feature space. From the geometrical perspective, a facial image can be usually seen as sampled from a low-dimensional manifold embedded in the original high-dimensional feature space. Thus, we first measure the energy of each feature in preserving the underlying local structure information and the ordinal information of the facial images, respectively, and then we intend to learn a low-dimensional aging representation that can maximally preserve both kinds of information. To further improve the performance, we try to eliminate the redundant local information and ordinal information as much as possible by minimizing nonlinear correlation and rank correlation among features. Finally, we formulate all these issues into a unified optimization problem, which is similar to linear discriminant analysis in format. Since it is expensive to collect the labeled facial aging images in practice, we extend the proposed supervised method to a semi-supervised learning mode including the semi-supervised feature selection method and the semi-supervised age prediction algorithm. Extensive experiments are conducted on the FACES dataset, the Images of Groups dataset, and the FG-NET aging dataset to show the power of the proposed algorithms, compared to the state-of-the-arts. PMID:26470062

  11. Model Based Definition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowe, Sidney E.

    2010-01-01

    In September 2007, the Engineering Directorate at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) created the Design System Focus Team (DSFT). MSFC was responsible for the in-house design and development of the Ares 1 Upper Stage and the Engineering Directorate was preparing to deploy a new electronic Configuration Management and Data Management System with the Design Data Management System (DDMS) based upon a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) Product Data Management (PDM) System. The DSFT was to establish standardized CAD practices and a new data life cycle for design data. Of special interest here, the design teams were to implement Model Based Definition (MBD) in support of the Upper Stage manufacturing contract. It is noted that this MBD does use partially dimensioned drawings for auxiliary information to the model. The design data lifecycle implemented several new release states to be used prior to formal release that allowed the models to move through a flow of progressive maturity. The DSFT identified some 17 Lessons Learned as outcomes of the standards development, pathfinder deployments and initial application to the Upper Stage design completion. Some of the high value examples are reviewed.

  12. Computationally Modeling Lipid Metabolism and Aging: A Mini-review

    PubMed Central

    Mc Auley, Mark T.; Mooney, Kathleen M.

    2014-01-01

    One of the greatest challenges in biology is to improve the understanding of the mechanisms which underpin aging and how these affect health. The need to better understand aging is amplified by demographic changes, which have caused a gradual increase in the global population of older people. Aging western populations have resulted in a rise in the prevalence of age-related pathologies. Of these diseases, cardiovascular disease is the most common underlying condition in older people. The dysregulation of lipid metabolism due to aging impinges significantly on cardiovascular health. However, the multifaceted nature of lipid metabolism and the complexities of its interaction with aging make it challenging to understand by conventional means. To address this challenge computational modeling, a key component of the systems biology paradigm is being used to study the dynamics of lipid metabolism. This mini-review briefly outlines the key regulators of lipid metabolism, their dysregulation, and how computational modeling is being used to gain an increased insight into this system. PMID:25750699

  13. An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

    2009-01-01

    The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

  14. Porosity estimation of aged mortar using a micromechanical model.

    PubMed

    Hernández, M G; Anaya, J J; Sanchez, T; Segura, I

    2006-12-22

    Degradation of concrete structures located in high humidity atmospheres or under flowing water is a very important problem. In this study, a method for ultrasonic non-destructive characterization in aged mortar is presented. The proposed method makes a prediction of the behaviour of aged mortar accomplished with a three phase micromechanical model using ultrasonic measurements. Aging mortar was accelerated by immersing the probes in ammonium nitrate solution. Both destructive and non-destructive characterization of mortar was performed. Destructive tests of porosity were performed using a vacuum saturation method and non-destructive characterization was carried out using ultrasonic velocities. Aging experiments show that mortar degradation not only involves a porosity increase, but also microstructural changes in the cement matrix. Experimental results show that the estimated porosity using the proposed non-destructive methodology had a comparable performance to classical destructive techniques.

  15. Old Age Portrayed by the Ages-of-Life Models from the Middle Ages to the Sixteenth Century.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Covey, Herbert C.

    1989-01-01

    The ages of life portrayed in literature and the arts from the late Middle Ages up to the sixteenth century provide valuable information on how aging and old age were perceived in earlier times. Themes related to old age include ambivalence, decay, and age-appropriate behavior. (Author)

  16. Age-based discrimination of rival males in western bluebirds.

    PubMed

    Akçay, Çağlar; Arnold, J Andrew; Hambury, Katherine L; Dickinson, Janis L

    2016-09-01

    Adaptive social behavior frequently involves discriminating between classes of individuals such as relatives versus non-relatives, older versus younger individuals, or individuals of different status. In the absence of spatial cues, this discrimination may be based on signals that correlate with fitness-related traits (e.g., older or high-status males may sing higher performance songs) or with identity, for example, when receivers distinguish and classify signalers based on their unique signal structure. Here, we examine vocal age-based discrimination in western bluebirds (Sialia mexicana), a North American songbird in which older males have a significant advantage in obtaining extra-pair fertilizations, and therefore pose a significantly higher threat to paternity than younger males. We asked whether western bluebird males showed a higher response to playback of songs of older males compared to younger males relative to their own age. We prepared song stimuli by removing three potential signals of age that have been identified as important in other species: (1) note consistency (which was achieved by playing a single instance of each note repeatedly), (2) note repertoire size, and (3) singing rate (the latter two were equalized across conditions). Even in the absence of these potential signals of age, young males responded more strongly to playback of older males' songs than to young males' songs, suggesting that they are able to discriminate between age classes relative to the threat they pose. Further research is required to determine whether this discrimination is based on individual recognition or signal features that are correlated with age. PMID:27271774

  17. Evaluation of a Community-Based Aging Intervention Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Hui-Chuan; Wang, Chun-Hou; Chen, Yi-Chun; Chang, Ming-Chen; Wang, Jean

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the outcome and process of a community-based aging intervention program for the elderly in Taiwan. The program included education on nutrition and dietary behavior and on physical activities. Outcome and process evaluations were conducted. The program may have had some effects on decreasing some dietary behavioral problems and…

  18. Probabilistic Generalization of Penna Ageing Model and the Oldest Old

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, D.

    Using a 1995 method of Thoms et al., the traditional Penna model of biological ageing is modified such that there is no more absolute maximum life span; instead, our Monte Carlo data are similar to real demographic data collected by Thatcher et al., for rich countries.

  19. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Djordjevic, Ivan B.

    2015-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually

  20. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution.

    PubMed

    Djordjevic, Ivan B

    2015-08-24

    Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually

  1. Incompatible Ages for Clearwing Butterflies Based on Alternative Secondary Calibrations.

    PubMed

    Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Silva-Brandão, Karina L; Willmott, Keith R; Freitas, André V L; Brower, Andrew V Z

    2015-09-01

    The recent publication of a time-tree for the plant family Solanaceae (nightshades) provides the opportunity to use independent calibrations to test divergence times previously inferred for the diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini. Ithomiini includes clades that are obligate herbivores of Solanaceae, with some genera feeding on only one genus. We used 8 calibrations extracted from the plant tree in a new relaxed molecular-clock analysis to produce an alternative temporal framework for the diversification of ithomiines. We compared the resulting age estimates to: (i) a time-tree obtained using 7 secondary calibrations from the Nymphalidae tree of Wahlberg et al. (2009), and (ii) Wahlberg et al.'s (2009) original age estimates for the same clades. We found that Bayesian clock estimates were rather sensitive to a variety of analytical parameters, including taxon sampling. Regardless of this sensitivity however, ithomiine divergence times calibrated with the ages of nightshades were always on average half the age of previous estimates. Younger dates for ithomiine clades appear to fit better with factors long suggested to have promoted diversification of the group such as the uplifting of the Andes, in the case of montane genera. Alternatively, if ithomiines are as old as previous estimates suggest, the recent ages inferred for the diversification of Solanaceae seem likely to be seriously underestimated. Our study exemplifies the difficulty of testing hypotheses of divergence times and of choosing between alternative dating scenarios, and shows that age estimates based on seemingly plausible calibrations may be grossly incongruent. PMID:26012872

  2. Incompatible Ages for Clearwing Butterflies Based on Alternative Secondary Calibrations.

    PubMed

    Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Silva-Brandão, Karina L; Willmott, Keith R; Freitas, André V L; Brower, Andrew V Z

    2015-09-01

    The recent publication of a time-tree for the plant family Solanaceae (nightshades) provides the opportunity to use independent calibrations to test divergence times previously inferred for the diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini. Ithomiini includes clades that are obligate herbivores of Solanaceae, with some genera feeding on only one genus. We used 8 calibrations extracted from the plant tree in a new relaxed molecular-clock analysis to produce an alternative temporal framework for the diversification of ithomiines. We compared the resulting age estimates to: (i) a time-tree obtained using 7 secondary calibrations from the Nymphalidae tree of Wahlberg et al. (2009), and (ii) Wahlberg et al.'s (2009) original age estimates for the same clades. We found that Bayesian clock estimates were rather sensitive to a variety of analytical parameters, including taxon sampling. Regardless of this sensitivity however, ithomiine divergence times calibrated with the ages of nightshades were always on average half the age of previous estimates. Younger dates for ithomiine clades appear to fit better with factors long suggested to have promoted diversification of the group such as the uplifting of the Andes, in the case of montane genera. Alternatively, if ithomiines are as old as previous estimates suggest, the recent ages inferred for the diversification of Solanaceae seem likely to be seriously underestimated. Our study exemplifies the difficulty of testing hypotheses of divergence times and of choosing between alternative dating scenarios, and shows that age estimates based on seemingly plausible calibrations may be grossly incongruent.

  3. Age of stratospheric air and aging by mixing in global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garny, Hella; Dietmüller, Simone; Plöger, Felix; Birner, Thomas; Bönisch, Harald; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The Brewer-Dobson circulation is often quantified by the integrated transport measure age of air (AoA). AoA is affected by all transport processes, including transport along the residual mean mass circulation and two-way mixing. A large spread in the simulation of AoA by current global models exists. Using CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 global model data, we show that this spread can only in small parts be attributed to differences in the simulated residual circulation. Instead, large differences in the "mixing efficiency" strongly contribute to the differences in the simulated AoA. The "mixing efficiency" is defined as the ratio of the two-way mixing mass flux across the subtropical barrier to the net (residual) mass flux, and this mixing efficiency controls the relative increase in AoA by mixing. We derive the mixing efficiency from global model data using the analytical solution of a simplified version of the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, in which vertical diffusion is neglected. Thus, it is assumed that only residual mean transport and horizontal two-way mixing across the subtropical barrier controls AoA. However, in global models vertical mixing and numerical diffusion modify AoA, and these processes likely contribute to the differences in the mixing efficiency between models. We explore the contributions of diffusion and mixing on mean AoA by a) using simulations with the tropical leaky pipe model including vertical diffusion and b) explicit calculations of aging by mixing on resolved scales. Using the TLP model, we show that vertical diffusion leads to a decrease in tropical AoA, i.e. counteracts the increase in tropical mean AoA due to horizontal mixing. Thus, neglecting vertical diffusion leads to an underestimation of the mixing efficiency. With explicit calculations of aging by mixing via integration of daily local mixing tendencies along residual circulation trajectories, we explore the contributions of vertical and horizontal mixing for aging by mixing. The

  4. Mouse Models of Oxidative Stress Indicate a Role for Modulating Healthy Aging

    PubMed Central

    Hamilton, Ryan T.; Walsh, Michael E.; Van Remmen, Holly

    2013-01-01

    Aging is a complex process that affects every major system at the molecular, cellular and organ levels. Although the exact cause of aging is unknown, there is significant evidence that oxidative stress plays a major role in the aging process. The basis of the oxidative stress hypothesis is that aging occurs as a result of an imbalance between oxidants and antioxidants, which leads to the accrual of damaged proteins, lipids and DNA macromolecules with age. Age-dependent increases in protein oxidation and aggregates, lipofuscin, and DNA mutations contribute to age-related pathologies. Many transgenic/knockout mouse models over expressing or deficient in key antioxidant enzymes have been generated to examine the effect of oxidative stress on aging and age-related diseases. Based on currently reported lifespan studies using mice with altered antioxidant defense, there is little evidence that oxidative stress plays a role in determining lifespan. However, mice deficient in antioxidant enzymes are often more susceptible to age-related disease while mice overexpressing antioxidant enzymes often have an increase in the amount of time spent without disease, i.e., healthspan. Thus, by understanding the mechanisms that affect healthy aging, we may discover potential therapeutic targets to extend human healthspan. PMID:25300955

  5. Thyroid and Aging or the Aging Thyroid? An Evidence-Based Analysis of the Literature

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Thyroid hormone production, metabolism, and action change with aging. The reference ranges for serum thyrotropin and thyroid hormones are derived mainly from younger populations. Thus, the prevalence of subclinical thyroid dysfunction is increased greatly in the elderly. However, it is unclear whether mild thyroid dysfunction in the elderly is associated with adverse outcomes. In this review, we discuss current evidence-based literature on thyroid function in the elderly and whether subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the elderly should be treated. PMID:24106641

  6. Mathematical modeling of left ventricular dimensional changes in mice during aging.

    PubMed

    Yang, Tianyi; Chiao, Ying Ann; Wang, Yunji; Voorhees, Andrew; Han, Hai-Chao; Lindsey, Merry L; Jin, Yu-Fang

    2012-01-01

    Cardiac aging is characterized by diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle (LV), which is due in part to increased LV wall stiffness. In the diastolic phase, myocytes are relaxed and extracellular matrix (ECM) is a critical determinant to the changes of LV wall stiffness. To evaluate the effects of ECM composition on cardiac aging, we developed a mathematical model to predict LV dimension and wall stiffness changes in aging mice by integrating mechanical laws and our experimental results. We measured LV dimension, wall thickness, LV mass, and collagen content for wild type (WT) C57/BL6J mice of ages ranging from 7.3 months to those of 34.0 months. The model was established using the thick wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to an isotropic and homogeneous elastic composite with mixed constituents. The initial conditions of the simulation were set based on the data from the young mice. Matlab simulations of this mathematical model demonstrated that the model captured the major features of LV remodeling with age and closely approximated experimental results. Specifically, the temporal progression of the LV interior and exterior dimensions demonstrated the same trend and order-of-magnitude change as our experimental results. In conclusion, we present here a validated mathematical model of cardiac aging that applies the thick-wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to LV remodeling with age. PMID:23281647

  7. Blood Glucose, Diet-Based Glycemic Load and Cognitive Aging Among Dementia-Free Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Andel, Ross; McEvoy, Cathy; Dahl Aslan, Anna K.; Finkel, Deborah; Pedersen, Nancy L.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Although evidence indicates that Type II Diabetes is related to abnormal brain aging, the influence of elevated blood glucose on long-term cognitive change is unclear. In addition, the relationship between diet-based glycemic load and cognitive aging has not been extensively studied. The focus of this study was to investigate the influence of diet-based glycemic load and blood glucose on cognitive aging in older adults followed for up to 16 years. Methods. Eight-hundred and thirty-eight cognitively healthy adults aged ≥50 years (M = 63.1, SD = 8.3) from the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging were studied. Mixed effects growth models were utilized to assess overall performance and change in general cognitive functioning, perceptual speed, memory, verbal ability, and spatial ability as a function of baseline blood glucose and diet-based glycemic load. Results. High blood glucose was related to poorer overall performance on perceptual speed as well as greater rates of decline in general cognitive ability, perceptual speed, verbal ability, and spatial ability. Diet-based glycemic load was related to poorer overall performance in perceptual speed and spatial ability. Conclusion. Diet-based glycemic load and, in particular, elevated blood glucose appear important for cognitive performance/cognitive aging. Blood glucose control (perhaps through low glycemic load diets) may be an important target in the detection and prevention of age-related cognitive decline. PMID:25149688

  8. Liver aging and pseudocapillarization in a Werner syndrome mouse model.

    PubMed

    Cogger, Victoria C; Svistounov, Dmitri; Warren, Alessandra; Zykova, Svetlana; Melvin, Richard G; Solon-Biet, Samantha M; O'Reilly, Jennifer N; McMahon, Aisling C; Ballard, J William O; De Cabo, Rafa; Le Couteur, David G; Lebel, Michel

    2014-09-01

    Werner syndrome is a progeric syndrome characterized by premature atherosclerosis, diabetes, cancer, and death in humans. The knockout mouse model created by deletion of the RecQ helicase domain of the mouse Wrn homologue gene (Wrn(∆hel/∆hel)) is of great interest because it develops atherosclerosis and hypertriglyceridemia, conditions associated with aging liver and sinusoidal changes. Here, we show that Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) mice exhibit increased extracellular matrix, defenestration, decreased fenestration diameter, and changes in markers of liver sinusoidal endothelial cell inflammation, consistent with age-related pseudocapilliarization. In addition, hepatocytes are larger, have increased lipofuscin deposition, more frequent nuclear morphological anomalies, decreased mitochondria number, and increased mitochondrial diameter compared to wild-type mice. The Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) mice also have altered mitochondrial function and altered nuclei. Microarray data revealed that the Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) genotype does not affect the expression of many genes within the isolated hepatocytes or liver sinusoidal endothelial cells. This study reveals that Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) mice have accelerated typical age-related liver changes including pseudocapillarization. This confirms that pseudocapillarization of the liver sinusoid is a consistent feature of various aging models. Moreover, it implies that DNA repair may be implicated in normal aging changes in the liver.

  9. Evaluations of mosquito age grading techniques based on morphological changes.

    PubMed

    Hugo, L E; Quick-Miles, S; Kay, B H; Ryan, P A

    2008-05-01

    Evaluations were made of the accuracy and practicality of mosquito age grading methods based on changes to mosquito morphology; including the Detinova ovarian tracheation, midgut meconium, Polovodova ovariole dilatation, ovarian injection, and daily growth line methods. Laboratory maintained Aedes vigilax (Skuse) and Culex annulirostris (Skuse) females of known chronological and physiological ages were used for these assessments. Application of the Detinova technique to laboratory reared Ae. vigilax females in a blinded trial enabled the successful identification of nulliparous and parous females in 83.7-89.8% of specimens. The success rate for identifying nulliparous females increased to 87.8-98.0% when observations of ovarian tracheation were combined with observations of the presence of midgut meconium. However, application of the Polovodova method only enabled 57.5% of nulliparous, 1-parous, 2-parous, and 3-parous Ae. vigilax females to be correctly classified, and ovarian injections were found to be unfeasible. Poor correlation was observed between the number of growth lines per phragma and the calendar age of laboratory reared Ae. vigilax females. In summary, morphological age grading methods that offer simple two-category predictions (ovarian tracheation and midgut meconium methods) were found to provide high-accuracy classifications, whereas methods that offer the separation of multiple age categories (ovariolar dilatation and growth line methods) were found to be extremely difficult and of low accuracy. The usefulness of the morphology-based methods is discussed in view of the availability of new mosquito age grading techniques based on cuticular hydrocarbon and gene transcription changes. PMID:18533427

  10. Age-Based Methods to Explore Time-Related Variables in Occupational Epidemiology Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Janice P. Watkins, Edward L. Frome, Donna L. Cragle

    2005-08-31

    Although age is recognized as the strongest predictor of mortality in chronic disease epidemiology, a calendar-based approach is often employed when evaluating time-related variables. An age-based analysis file, created by determining the value of each time-dependent variable for each age that a cohort member is followed, provides a clear definition of age at exposure and allows development of diverse analytic models. To demonstrate methods, the relationship between cancer mortality and external radiation was analyzed with Poisson regression for 14,095 Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. Based on previous analysis of this cohort, a model with ten-year lagged cumulative radiation doses partitioned by receipt before (dose-young) or after (dose-old) age 45 was examined. Dose-response estimates were similar to calendar-year-based results with elevated risk for dose-old, but not when film badge readings were weekly before 1957. Complementary results showed increasing risk with older hire ages and earlier birth cohorts, since workers hired after age 45 were born before 1915, and dose-young and dose-old were distributed differently by birth cohorts. Risks were generally higher for smokingrelated than non-smoking-related cancers. It was difficult to single out specific variables associated with elevated cancer mortality because of: (1) birth cohort differences in hire age and mortality experience completeness, and (2) time-period differences in working conditions, dose potential, and exposure assessment. This research demonstrated the utility and versatility of the age-based approach.

  11. Rotifers as models for the biology of aging.

    PubMed

    Snell, Terry W

    2014-03-01

    It has been two decades since 1993 when research on the biology of rotifer aging was last reviewed by Enesco. Much has transpired during this time as rotifer biologists have adapted to the "omics" revolution and incorporated these techniques into the experimental analysis of rotifers. Rotifers are amenable to many of these approaches and getting adequate quantities of DNA, RNA, and protein from rotifers is not difficult. Analysis of rotifer genomes, transcriptomes, and proteomes is rapidly yielding candidate genes that likely regulate a variety of features of rotifer biology. Parallel developments in aging biology have recognized the limitations of standard animal models like worms and flies and that comparative aging research has essentially ignored a large fraction of animal phylogeny in the lophotrochozoans. As experimentally tractable members of this group, rotifers have attracted interest as models of aging. In this paper, I review advances over the past 20 years in the biology of aging in rotifers, with emphasis on the unique contributions of rotifer models for understanding aging. The majority of experimental work has manipulated rotifer diet and followed changes in survival and reproductive dynamics like mean lifespan, maximum lifespan, reproductive lifespan, and mortality rate doubling time. The main dietary manipulation has been some form of caloric restriction, withholding food for some period or feeding continuously at low levels. There have been comparative studies of several rotifer species, with some species responding to caloric restriction with life extension, but others not, at least under the tested food regimens. Other aspects of diet are less explored, like nutritional properties of different algae species and their capacity to extend rotifer lifespan. Several descriptive studies have reported many genes involved in rotifer aging by comparing gene expression in young and old individuals. Classes of genes up or down-regulated during aging have

  12. Aging, Neurogenesis, and Caloric Restriction in Different Model Organisms

    PubMed Central

    Arslan-Ergul, Ayca; Ozdemir, A Tugrul; Adams, Michelle M

    2013-01-01

    Brain aging is a multifactorial process that is occurring across multiple cognitive domains. A significant complaint that occurs in the elderly is a decrement in learning and memory ability. Both rodents and zebrafish exhibit a similar problem with memory during aging. The neurobiological changes that underlie this cognitive decline are complex and undoubtedly influenced by many factors. Alterations in the birth of new neurons and neuron turnover may contribute to age-related cognitive problems. Caloric restriction is the only non-genetic intervention that reliably increases life span and healthspan across multiple organisms although the molecular mechanisms are not well-understood. Recently the zebrafish has become a popular model organism for understanding the neurobiological consequences but to date very little work has been performed. Similarly, few studies have examined the effects of dietary restriction in zebrafish. Here we review the literature related to memory decline, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction across model organisms and suggest that zebrafish has the potential to be an important animal model for understanding the complex interactions between age, neurobiological changes in the brain, and dietary regimens or their mimetics as interventions. PMID:23936746

  13. Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model.

    PubMed

    Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuğrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

    2015-02-01

    We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ(-α). Depending on the exponent α, the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α=1) tree depth grows as (logn)(2). This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point.

  14. Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model.

    PubMed

    Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuğrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

    2015-02-01

    We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ(-α). Depending on the exponent α, the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α=1) tree depth grows as (logn)(2). This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point. PMID:25768548

  15. Computer simulation of Aphis gossypii insects using Penna aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarola, L. T. P.; Martins, S. G. F.; Toledo Costa, M. C. P.

    2006-08-01

    A computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of Aphis gossypii in laboratory and field conditions. The age structure was inserted in the dynamics through bit string model for biological aging, proposed by Penna in 1995. The influence of different host plants and of climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation was considered in the simulation starting from experimental data. The results obtained indicate that the simulation is an appropriate instrument for understanding of the population dynamics of these species and for the establishment of biological control strategies.

  16. Scaling in a Continuous Time Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.; Thomas, G. L.

    In this paper, we consider a generalization to the asexual version of Penna model for biological aging, where we take a continuous time limit. The genotype associated to each individual is an interval of real numbers over which Dirac δ-functions are defined, representing genetically programmed diseases to be switched on at defined ages of the individual life. We discuss two different continuous limits for the evolution equation and two different mutation protocols, to be implemented during reproduction. Exact stationary solutions are obtained and scaling properties are discussed.

  17. Disentangling trait-based mortality in species with decoupled size and age.

    PubMed

    O'Farrell, Shay; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; van Rooij, Jules M; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-09-01

    1. Size and age are fundamental organismal traits, and typically, both are good predictors of mortality. For many species, however, size and age predict mortality in ontogenetically opposing directions. Specifically, mortality due to predation is often more intense on smaller individuals whereas mortality due to senescence impacts, by definition, on older individuals. 2. When size-based and age-based mortality are independent in this manner, modelling mortality in both traits is often necessary. Classical approaches, such as Leslie or Lefkovitch matrices, usually require the model to infer the state of one trait from the state of the other, for example by assuming that explicitly modelled age (or stage) class structure provides implicit information on underlying size-class structure, as is the case in many species. 3. However, the assumption that one trait informs on the other is challenged when size and age are decoupled, as often occurs in invertebrates, amphibians, fish, reptiles and plants. In these cases, age-structured models may perform poorly at capturing size-based mortality, and vice versa. 4. We offer a solution to this dilemma, relaxing the assumption that class structure in one trait is inferable from class structure in another trait. Using empirical data from a reef fish, Sparisoma viride (Scaridae), we demonstrate how an individual-based model (IBM) can be implemented to model mortality as explicit, independent and simultaneous functions of individual size and age - an approach that mimics the effects of mortality in many wild populations. By validating this 'multitrait IBM' against three independent lines of empirical data, we determine that the approach produces more convincing predictions of size-class structure, longevity and post-settlement mortality for S. viride than do the trait-independent or single-trait mortality models tested. 5. Multitrait IBMs also allow trait-based mortality to be modelled either additively or multiplicatively, and

  18. Disentangling trait-based mortality in species with decoupled size and age.

    PubMed

    O'Farrell, Shay; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; van Rooij, Jules M; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-09-01

    1. Size and age are fundamental organismal traits, and typically, both are good predictors of mortality. For many species, however, size and age predict mortality in ontogenetically opposing directions. Specifically, mortality due to predation is often more intense on smaller individuals whereas mortality due to senescence impacts, by definition, on older individuals. 2. When size-based and age-based mortality are independent in this manner, modelling mortality in both traits is often necessary. Classical approaches, such as Leslie or Lefkovitch matrices, usually require the model to infer the state of one trait from the state of the other, for example by assuming that explicitly modelled age (or stage) class structure provides implicit information on underlying size-class structure, as is the case in many species. 3. However, the assumption that one trait informs on the other is challenged when size and age are decoupled, as often occurs in invertebrates, amphibians, fish, reptiles and plants. In these cases, age-structured models may perform poorly at capturing size-based mortality, and vice versa. 4. We offer a solution to this dilemma, relaxing the assumption that class structure in one trait is inferable from class structure in another trait. Using empirical data from a reef fish, Sparisoma viride (Scaridae), we demonstrate how an individual-based model (IBM) can be implemented to model mortality as explicit, independent and simultaneous functions of individual size and age - an approach that mimics the effects of mortality in many wild populations. By validating this 'multitrait IBM' against three independent lines of empirical data, we determine that the approach produces more convincing predictions of size-class structure, longevity and post-settlement mortality for S. viride than do the trait-independent or single-trait mortality models tested. 5. Multitrait IBMs also allow trait-based mortality to be modelled either additively or multiplicatively, and

  19. Parameterization of European perch Perca fluviatilis length-at-age data using stochastic Gompertz growth models.

    PubMed

    Troynikov, V S; Gorfine, H K; Ložys, L; Pūtys, Z; Jakubavičiūtė, E; Day, R W

    2011-12-01

    Three stochastic versions of the Gompertz growth model were used to parameterize total length (L(T) )-at-age data for perch Perca fluviatilis, an important target species for commercial and recreational fishers and a food species for predatory fishes and aquatic birds. Each model addresses growth heterogeneity by incorporating random parameters from a specific positive distribution: Weibull, gamma or log-normal. The modelling outputs for each version of the model provide L(T) distributions for selected ages and percentiles of L(T) at age for both males and females. The results highlight the importance of using a stochastic approach and the logistic-like growth pattern for analysing growth data for P. fluviatilis in Curonian Lagoon (Lithuania). Outputs from this modelling can be extended to a stochastic analysis of fish cohort dynamics, incorporating all length-based biological relationships, and the selectivity-related interactions between fish cohorts and fishing gear.

  20. Effect of age-based and environment-based cues on reproductive investment in Gambusia affinis

    PubMed Central

    Billman, Eric J; Belk, Mark C

    2014-01-01

    We examined the multivariate life-history trajectories of age 0 and age 1 female Gambusia affinis to determine relative effects of age-based and environment-based cues on reproductive investment. Age 0 females decreased reproductive investment prior to the onset of fall and winter months, while age 1 females increased reproductive investment as the summer progressed. The reproductive restraint and terminal investment patterns exhibited by age 0 and age 1 females, respectively, were consistent with the predictions from the cost of reproduction hypothesis. Age 0 females responded to environment-based cues, decreasing reproductive investment to increase the probability of overwinter survival and subsequent reproductive opportunities in the following summer. Age 1 females responded to age-based cues, or the proximity of death, increasing investment to current reproduction as future reproductive opportunities decreased late in life. Thus, individuals use multiple cues to determine the level of reproductive investment, and the response to each cue is dependent on the age of an individual. PMID:24967079

  1. Nothobranchius furzeri: A Model for Aging Research and More.

    PubMed

    Platzer, Matthias; Englert, Christoph

    2016-09-01

    The short-lived killifish Nothobranchius furzeri inhabits ephemeral ponds in southeastern Africa and is characterized by rapid growth and early sexual maturation. With respect to the molecular, cellular, and integrative traits of aging, N. furzeri shows significant similarities to mammals, including humans. Recently, reference sequences for the N. furzeri genome have been published. Also, methods for transgenesis and genomic engineering have been established. In this review we discuss why the killifish is a valuable model for aging research and what we have learned from the genome sequence. The respective insights are not limited to the biology of aging but are also relevant for developmental biology and the evolution of sex determination. PMID:27427533

  2. Impact of aging mechanism on model simulated carbonaceous aerosols

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Y.; Wu, S.; Dubey, M.K.; French, N. H. F.

    2013-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols including organic carbon and black carbon have significant implications for both climate and air quality. In the current global climate or chemical transport models, a fixed hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic conversion lifetime for carbonaceous aerosol (τ) is generally assumed, which is usually around one day. We have implemented a new detailed aging scheme for carbonaceous aerosols in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to account for both the chemical oxidation and the physical condensation-coagulation effects, where τ is affected by local atmospheric environment including atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, ozone, hydroxyl radical and sulfuric acid. The updated τ exhibits large spatial and temporal variations with the global average (up to 11 km altitude) calculated to be 2.6 days. The chemical aging effects are found to be strongest over the tropical regions driven by the low ozone concentrations and high humidity there. The τ resulted from chemical aging generally decreases with altitude due to increases in ozone concentration and decreases in humidity. The condensation-coagulation effects are found to be most important for the high-latitude areas, in particular the polar regions, where the τ values are calculated to be up to 15 days. When both the chemical aging and condensation-coagulation effects are considered, the total atmospheric burdens and global average lifetimes of BC, black carbon, (OC, organic carbon) are calculated to increase by 9% (3%) compared to the control simulation, with considerable enhancements of BC and OC concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere. Model evaluations against data from multiple datasets show that the updated aging scheme improves model simulations of carbonaceous aerosols for some regions, especially for the remote areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The improvement helps explain the persistent low model bias for carbonaceous aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere reported in literature. Further

  3. Geophysical Age Dating of Seamounts using Dense Core Flexure Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Gyuha; Kim, Seung-Sep

    2016-04-01

    Lithospheric flexure of oceanic plate is thermo-mechanical response of an elastic plate to the given volcanic construct (e.g., seamounts and ocean islands). If the shape and mass of such volcanic loads are known, the flexural response is governed by the thickness of elastic plate, Te. As the age of oceanic plate increases, the elastic thickness of oceanic lithosphere becomes thicker. Thus, we can relate Te with the age of plate at the time of loading. To estimate the amount of the driving force due to seamounts on elastic plate, one needs to approximate their density structure. The most common choice is uniform density model, which utilizes constant density value for a seamount. This approach simplifies computational processes for gravity prediction and error estimates. However, the uniform density model tends to overestimate the total mass of the seamount and hence produces more positive gravitational contributions from the load. Minimization of gravity misfits using uniform density, therefore, favors thinner Te in order to increase negative contributions from the lithospheric flexure, which can compensate for the excessive positives from the seamount. An alternative approach is dense core model, which approximate the heterogeneity nature of seamount density as three bodies of infill sediment, edifice, and dense core. In this study, we apply the dense core model to the Louisville Seamount Chain for constraining flexural deformation. We compare Te estimates with the loading time of the examined seamounts to redefine empirical geophysical age dating of seamounts.

  4. Classical Cepheid Pulsation Models. X. The Period-Age Relation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bono, G.; Marconi, M.; Cassisi, S.; Caputo, F.; Gieren, W.; Pietrzynski, G.

    2005-03-01

    We present new period-age (PA) and period-age-color (PAC) relations for fundamental and first-overtone classical Cepheids. Current predictions rely on homogeneous sets of evolutionary and pulsation models covering a broad range of stellar masses and chemical compositions. We found that PA and PAC relations present a mild dependence on metal content. Moreover, the use of different PA and PAC relations for fundamental and first-overtone Cepheids improves the accuracy of age estimates in the short-period (logP<1) range (old Cepheids), because they present smaller intrinsic dispersions. At the same time, the use of the PAC relations improves the accuracy in the long-period (logP>=1) range (young Cepheids), since they account for the position of individual objects inside the instability strip. We performed a detailed comparison between evolutionary and pulsation ages for a sizable sample of LMC (15) and SMC (12) clusters which host at least two Cepheids. In order to avoid deceptive uncertainties in the photometric absolute zero point, we adopted the homogeneous set of B, V, and I data for clusters and Cepheids collected by OGLE. We also adopted the same reddening scale. The different age estimates agree at the level of 20% for LMC clusters and of 10% for SMC clusters. We also performed the same comparison for two Galactic clusters (NGC 6067, NGC 7790), and the difference in age is smaller than 20%. These findings support the use of PA and PAC relations to supply accurate estimates of individual stellar ages in the Galaxy and in external Galaxies. The main advantage of this approach is its independence from the distance.

  5. Mechanical Regulation of Cardiac Aging in Model Systems.

    PubMed

    Sessions, Ayla O; Engler, Adam J

    2016-05-13

    Unlike diet and exercise, which individuals can modulate according to their lifestyle, aging is unavoidable. With normal or healthy aging, the heart undergoes extensive vascular, cellular, and interstitial molecular changes that result in stiffer less compliant hearts that experience a general decline in organ function. Although these molecular changes deemed cardiac remodeling were once thought to be concomitant with advanced cardiovascular disease, they can be found in patients without manifestation of clinical disease. It is now mostly acknowledged that these age-related mechanical changes confer vulnerability of the heart to cardiovascular stresses associated with disease, such as hypertension and atherosclerosis. However, recent studies have aimed at differentiating the initial compensatory changes that occur within the heart with age to maintain contractile function from the maladaptive responses associated with disease. This work has identified new targets to improve cardiac function during aging. Spanning invertebrate to vertebrate models, we use this review to delineate some hallmarks of physiological versus pathological remodeling that occur in the cardiomyocyte and its microenvironment, focusing especially on the mechanical changes that occur within the sarcomere, intercalated disc, costamere, and extracellular matrix. PMID:27174949

  6. Spectral age modelling of the `Sausage' cluster radio relic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroe, Andra; Harwood, Jeremy J.; Hardcastle, Martin J.; Röttgering, Huub J. A.

    2014-12-01

    CIZA J2242.8+5301 is a post-core passage, binary merging cluster that hosts a large, thin, arc-like radio relic, nicknamed the `Sausage', tracing a relatively strong shock front. We perform spatially resolved spectral fitting to the available radio data for this radio relic, using a variety of spectral ageing models, with the aim of finding a consistent set of parameters for the shock and radio plasma. We determine an injection index of 0.77^{+0.03}_{-0.02} for the relic plasma, significantly steeper than was found before. Standard particle acceleration at the shock front implies a Mach number M=2.90^{+0.10}_{-0.13}, which now matches X-ray measurements. The shock advance speed is vshock ≈ 2500 km s-1, which places the core passage of the two subclusters 0.6-0.8 Gyr ago. We find a systematic spectral age increase from 0 at the northern side of the relic up to ˜60 Myr at ˜145 kpc into the downstream area, assuming a 0.6 nT magnetic field. Under the assumption of freely ageing electrons after acceleration by the `Sausage' shock, the spectral ages are hard to reconcile with the shock speed derived from X-ray and radio observations. Re-acceleration or unusually efficient transport of particle in the downstream area and line-of-sight mixing could help explain the systematically low spectral ages.

  7. Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.

    2012-12-01

    This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;

  8. Mapping of Planetary Surface Age Based on Crater Statistics Obtained by AN Automatic Detection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salih, A. L.; Mühlbauer, M.; Grumpe, A.; Pasckert, J. H.; Wöhler, C.; Hiesinger, H.

    2016-06-01

    The analysis of the impact crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) is a well-established approach to the determination of the age of planetary surfaces. Classically, estimation of the CSFD is achieved by manual crater counting and size determination in spacecraft images, which, however, becomes very time-consuming for large surface areas and/or high image resolution. With increasing availability of high-resolution (nearly) global image mosaics of planetary surfaces, a variety of automated methods for the detection of craters based on image data and/or topographic data have been developed. In this contribution a template-based crater detection algorithm is used which analyses image data acquired under known illumination conditions. Its results are used to establish the CSFD for the examined area, which is then used to estimate the absolute model age of the surface. The detection threshold of the automatic crater detection algorithm is calibrated based on a region with available manually determined CSFD such that the age inferred from the manual crater counts corresponds to the age inferred from the automatic crater detection results. With this detection threshold, the automatic crater detection algorithm can be applied to a much larger surface region around the calibration area. The proposed age estimation method is demonstrated for a Kaguya Terrain Camera image mosaic of 7.4 m per pixel resolution of the floor region of the lunar crater Tsiolkovsky, which consists of dark and flat mare basalt and has an area of nearly 10,000 km2. The region used for calibration, for which manual crater counts are available, has an area of 100 km2. In order to obtain a spatially resolved age map, CSFDs and surface ages are computed for overlapping quadratic regions of about 4.4 x 4.4 km2 size offset by a step width of 74 m. Our constructed surface age map of the floor of Tsiolkovsky shows age values of typically 3.2-3.3 Ga, while for small regions lower (down to 2.9 Ga) and higher

  9. A Multidisciplinary Model of Health Promotion Incorporating Spirituality into a Successful Aging Intervention with African American and White Elderly Groups.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Michael W.; Bellis, Jeffrey M.; Bishop, Phillip; Harper, Mary; Allman, Richard M.; Moore, Cynthia; Thompson, Paula

    2002-01-01

    Faculty from academic, medical, state, and religious institutions presented workshops at a community and faith-based conference attended by seniors. Lifestyle changes and forms of spirituality were affirmed using a model of successful aging. Model has the potential to help unify the religious community around promoting successful aging. African…

  10. An age-dependent feedback control model of calcium dynamics in yeast cells.

    PubMed

    Tang, Fusheng; Liu, Weijiu

    2010-06-01

    The functional decline of selected proteins or organelles leads to aging at the intracellular level. Identification of these proteins or organelles is usually challenging to traditional single-factor approaches since these factors are inter-connected via feedback or feedforward controls. Establishing a feedback control model to simulate the interactions of multiple factors is an insightful approach to guide the search for proteins involved in aging. However, there are only a few mathematical models describing the age-dependent accumulation of DNA mutations, which are directly or indirectly induced by deterioration of the intracellular environment including alteration of calcium homeostasis, a contributor of aging. Thus, based on Cui and Kaandorp's model, we develop an age-dependent mathematical model for the calcium homeostasis in budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our model contains cell cycle-dependent aging factors and can qualitatively reproduce calcium shocks and calcium accumulations in cells observed in experiments. Using this model, we predict calcium oscillations in wild type, pmc1 Delta, and pmr1 Delta cells. This prediction suggests that Pmr1p plays a major role in regulating cytosolic calcium. Combining the model with our experimental lifespan data, we predict an upper-limit of cytosolic calcium tolerance for cell survival. This prediction indicates that, for aged cells (>35 generations), no pmr1 Delta can tolerate the cytosolic calcium concentration of 0.1 microM while a very small fraction (1%) of aged wild type cells (>50 generations) can tolerate a high cytosolic calcium concentration of 0.5 microM.

  11. Predicting mortality from burns: the need for age-group specific models.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Sandra L; Lawless, MaryBeth; Curri, Terese; Sen, Soman; Greenhalgh, David G; Palmieri, Tina L

    2014-09-01

    Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000 to 2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. "One size fits all" models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable. PMID:24846014

  12. Predicting Mortality from Burn Injuries: The need for age-group specific models

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Sandra L.; Lawless, MaryBeth; Curri, Terese; Sen, Soman; Greenhalgh, David G.; Palmieri, Tina L.

    2014-01-01

    Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000-2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. “One size fits all” models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable. PMID:24846014

  13. Spatially adapted augmentation of age-specific atlas-based segmentation using patch-based priors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Mengyuan; Seshamani, Sharmishtaa; Harrylock, Lisa; Kitsch, Averi; Miller, Steven; Chau, Van; Poskitt, Kenneth; Rousseau, Francois; Studholme, Colin

    2014-03-01

    One of the most common approaches to MRI brain tissue segmentation is to employ an atlas prior to initialize an Expectation- Maximization (EM) image labeling scheme using a statistical model of MRI intensities. This prior is commonly derived from a set of manually segmented training data from the population of interest. However, in cases where subject anatomy varies significantly from the prior anatomical average model (for example in the case where extreme developmental abnormalities or brain injuries occur), the prior tissue map does not provide adequate information about the observed MRI intensities to ensure the EM algorithm converges to an anatomically accurate labeling of the MRI. In this paper, we present a novel approach for automatic segmentation of such cases. This approach augments the atlas-based EM segmentation by exploring methods to build a hybrid tissue segmentation scheme that seeks to learn where an atlas prior fails (due to inadequate representation of anatomical variation in the statistical atlas) and utilize an alternative prior derived from a patch driven search of the atlas data. We describe a framework for incorporating this patch-based augmentation of EM (PBAEM) into a 4D age-specific atlas-based segmentation of developing brain anatomy. The proposed approach was evaluated on a set of MRI brain scans of premature neonates with ages ranging from 27.29 to 46.43 gestational weeks (GWs). Results indicated superior performance compared to the conventional atlas-based segmentation method, providing improved segmentation accuracy for gray matter, white matter, ventricles and sulcal CSF regions.

  14. Attitudes about Aging and Gender among Young, Middle Age, and Older College-Based Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laditka, Sarah B.; Fischer, Mary; Laditka, James N.; Segal, David R.

    2004-01-01

    Using an updated version of the Aging Semantic Differential, 534 younger, middle age, and older participants from a college community rated female and male targets categorized as ages 21-34 and 75-85. Participants also provided views about their own aging. Repeated measures of analysis of variance examined attitudinal differences by age and gender…

  15. Cosmogenic Ne-21 Production Rates in H-Chondrites Based on Cl-36 - Ar-36 Ages

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leya, I.; Graf, Th.; Nishiizumi, K.; Guenther, D.; Wieler, R.

    2000-01-01

    We measured Ne-21 production rates in 14 H-chondrites in good agreement with model calculations. The production rates are based on Ne-21 concentrations measured on bulk samples or the non-magnetic fraction and Cl-36 - Ar-36 ages determined from the metal phase.

  16. Estimating Black Carbon Aging Time-Scales with a Particle-Resolved Aerosol Model

    SciTech Connect

    Riemer, Nicole; West, Matt; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Easter, Richard C.

    2010-01-13

    Understanding the aging process of aerosol particles is important for assessing their chemical reactivity, cloud condensation nuclei activity, radiative properties and health impacts. In this study we investigate the aging of black carbon containing particles in an idealized urban plume using a new approach, the particleresolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. We present a method to estimate aging time-scales using an aging criterion based on cloud condensation nuclei activation. The results show a separation into a daytime regime where condensation dominates and a nighttime regime where coagulation dominates. For the chosen urban plume scenario, depending on the supersaturation threshold, the values for the aging timescales vary between 0.06 hours and 10 hours during the day, and between 6 hours and 20 hours during the night.

  17. Accelerated ageing: from mechanism to therapy through animal models.

    PubMed

    Osorio, Fernando G; Obaya, Alvaro J; López-Otín, Carlos; Freije, José M P

    2009-02-01

    Ageing research benefits from the study of accelerated ageing syndromes such as Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS), characterized by the early appearance of symptoms normally associated with advanced age. Most HGPS cases are caused by a mutation in the gene LMNA, which leads to the synthesis of a truncated precursor of lamin A known as progerin that lacks the target sequence for the metallopotease FACE-1/ZMPSTE24 and remains constitutively farnesylated. The use of Face-1/Zmpste24-deficient mice allowed us to demonstrate that accumulation of farnesylated prelamin A causes severe abnormalities of the nuclear envelope, hyper-activation of p53 signalling, cellular senescence, stem cell dysfunction and the development of a progeroid phenotype. The reduction of prenylated prelamin A levels in genetically modified mice leads to a complete reversal of the progeroid phenotype, suggesting that inhibition of protein farnesylation could represent a therapeutic option for the treatment of progeria. However, we found that both prelamin A and its truncated form progerin can undergo either farnesylation or geranylgeranylation, revealing the need of targeting both activities for an efficient treatment of HGPS. Using Face-1/Zmpste24-deficient mice as model, we found that a combination of statins and aminobisphosphonates inhibits both types of modifications of prelamin A and progerin, improves the ageing-like symptoms of these mice and extends substantially their longevity, opening a new therapeutic possibility for human progeroid syndromes associated with nuclear-envelope defects. We discuss here the use of this and other animal models to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying accelerated ageing and to test strategies for its treatment.

  18. Lithium-ion Open Circuit Voltage (OCV) curve modelling and its ageing adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavigne, L.; Sabatier, J.; Francisco, J. Mbala; Guillemard, F.; Noury, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper is a contribution to lithium-ion batteries modelling taking into account aging effects. It first analyses the impact of aging on electrode stoichiometry and then on lithium-ion cell Open Circuit Voltage (OCV) curve. Through some hypotheses and an appropriate definition of the cell state of charge, it shows that each electrode equilibrium potential, but also the whole cell equilibrium potential can be modelled by a polynomial that requires only one adjustment parameter during aging. An adjustment algorithm, based on the idea that for two fixed OCVs, the state of charge between these two equilibrium states is unique for a given aging level, is then proposed. Its efficiency is evaluated on a battery pack constituted of four cells.

  19. Effects of aging on strategic-based visuomotor learning.

    PubMed

    Alfonso Uresti-Cabrera, Luis; Vaca-Palomares, Israel; Diaz, Rosalinda; Beltran-Parrazal, Luis; Fernandez-Ruiz, Juan

    2015-08-27

    There are different kinds of visuomotor learnings. One of the most studied is error-based learning where the information about the sign and magnitude of the error is used to update the motor commands. However, there are other instances where subjects show visuomotor learning even if the use of error sign and magnitude information is precluded. In those instances subjects could be using strategic instead of procedural adaptation mechanisms. Here, we present the results of the effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning under a reversed error feedback condition, and its contrast with procedural visuomotor learning within the same participants. A number of measures were obtained from a task consisting of throwing clay balls to a target before, during and after wearing lateral displacing or reversing prisms. The displacing prism results show an age dependent decrease on the learning rate that corroborates previous findings. The reversing prism results also show significant adaptation impairment in the aged population. However, decreased reversing learning in the older group was the result of an increase in the number of subjects that could not adapt to the reversing prism, and not on a reduction of the learning capacity of all the individuals of the group. These results suggest a significant deleterious effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning implementation. PMID:26014620

  20. Effects of aging on strategic-based visuomotor learning.

    PubMed

    Alfonso Uresti-Cabrera, Luis; Vaca-Palomares, Israel; Diaz, Rosalinda; Beltran-Parrazal, Luis; Fernandez-Ruiz, Juan

    2015-08-27

    There are different kinds of visuomotor learnings. One of the most studied is error-based learning where the information about the sign and magnitude of the error is used to update the motor commands. However, there are other instances where subjects show visuomotor learning even if the use of error sign and magnitude information is precluded. In those instances subjects could be using strategic instead of procedural adaptation mechanisms. Here, we present the results of the effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning under a reversed error feedback condition, and its contrast with procedural visuomotor learning within the same participants. A number of measures were obtained from a task consisting of throwing clay balls to a target before, during and after wearing lateral displacing or reversing prisms. The displacing prism results show an age dependent decrease on the learning rate that corroborates previous findings. The reversing prism results also show significant adaptation impairment in the aged population. However, decreased reversing learning in the older group was the result of an increase in the number of subjects that could not adapt to the reversing prism, and not on a reduction of the learning capacity of all the individuals of the group. These results suggest a significant deleterious effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning implementation.

  1. Differentiation in Self-Perceived Adulthood: Extending the Confluence Model of Subjective Age Identity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick; Berg, Justin Allen; Sirotzki, Toni

    2007-01-01

    This study examines and extends the confluence model of age identity by testing whether young people's self-perceptions as adults are linked to role transitions, self-assessed personal qualities, and social location. We propose that young people's sense of adulthood and the factors associated with it vary based on socially structured experience…

  2. AgedCare+GP: description and evaluation of an in-house model of general practice in a residential aged-care facility.

    PubMed

    Pain, Tilley; Stainkey, Lesley; Chapman, Sue

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a medical model to provide in-house GP services to residents of aged-care facilities. Access to GP services for aged-care residents is decreasing, partially due to the changing demographic of the Australian GP workforce. The model we have developed is an in-house GP (AgedCare+GP) trialled in a publicly funded residential aged-care facility (RACF). The service model was based on the GP cooperative used in our after-hours general practice (AfterHours+GP). Briefly, the service model involves rostering a core group of GPs to provide weekly sessional clinics at the RACF. Financial contributions from appropriate Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) items for aged-care planning (including chronic conditions) provided adequate funds to operate the clinic for RACF residents. Evaluation of the service model used the number of resident transfers to the local emergency department as the primary outcome measure. There were 37 transfers of residents in the 3 months before the commencement of the AgedCare+GP and 11 transfers over a 3-month period at the end of the first year of operation; a reduction of almost 70%. This project demonstrates that AgedCare+GP is a successful model for GP service provision to RACF residents, and it also reduces the number of emergency department transfers. PMID:24134857

  3. Synergistic effect of high charge and energy particle radiation and chronological age on biomarkers of oxidative stress and tissue degeneration: a ground-based study using the vertebrate laboratory model organism Oryzias latipes.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R; Weinberger, Paul M; Dynan, William S

    2014-01-01

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration. PMID:25375139

  4. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-01-01

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration. PMID:25375139

  5. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    SciTech Connect

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-11-06

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.

  6. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    DOE PAGES

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-11-06

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZEmore » particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.« less

  7. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How to obtain an age-based withdrawal... an age-based withdrawal. To request an age-based withdrawal, a participant must submit to the TSP record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site...

  8. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false How to obtain an age-based withdrawal... an age-based withdrawal. To request an age-based withdrawal, a participant must submit to the TSP record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site...

  9. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false How to obtain an age-based withdrawal... an age-based withdrawal. To request an age-based withdrawal, a participant must submit to the TSP record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site...

  10. Ovarian aging and menopause: current theories, hypotheses, and research models.

    PubMed

    Wu, Julie M; Zelinski, Mary B; Ingram, Donald K; Ottinger, Mary Ann

    2005-12-01

    Aging of the reproductive system has been studied in numerous vertebrate species. Although there are wide variations in reproductive strategies and hormone cycle components, many of the fundamental changes that occur during aging are similar. Evolutionary hypotheses attempt to explain why menopause occurs, whereas cellular hypotheses attempt to explain how it occurs. It is commonly believed that a disruption in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis is responsible for the onset of menopause. Data exist to demonstrate that the first signs of menopause occur at the level of the brain or the ovary. Thus, finding an appropriate and representative animal model is especially important for the advancement of menopause research. In primates, there is a gradual decline in the function of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis ultimately resulting in irregularities in menstrual cycles and increasingly sporadic incidence of ovulation. Rodents also exhibit a progressive deterioration in HPG axis function; however, they also experience a period of constant estrus accompanied by intermittent ovulations, reduced progesterone levels, and elevated circulating estradiol levels. It is remarkable to observe that females of other classes also demonstrate deterioration in HPG axis function and ovarian failure. Comparisons of aging in various taxa provide insight into fundamental biological mechanisms of aging that could underlie reproductive decline.

  11. Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

    2014-02-01

    The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

  12. Using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery to build age models for alluvial fan surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Lewis, James

    2016-04-01

    Accurate exposure age models are essential for much geomorphological field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide, or luminescence techniques. These approaches continue to revolutionise geomorphology, however they cannot be deployed remotely or in situ in the field. Therefore other methods are still needed for producing preliminary age models, performing relative dating of surfaces, or selecting sampling sites for the laboratory analyses above. With the widespread availability of detailed multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely-sensed data to discriminate surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. Alluvial fans are useful landforms to date, as they are widely used to study the effects of tectonics, climate and sediment transport processes on source-to-sink sedimentation. Our target fan surfaces have all been mapped in detail in the field, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka measured using a high density of 10Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. Despite all having similar granitic compositions, the spectral properties of these surfaces vary systematically with their exposure ages. Older surfaces demonstrate a predictable shift in reflectance across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratios of different wavelengths, generate sensitive power law relationships with exposure age that depend on post-depositional alteration processes affecting these surfaces. We investigate what these processes might be in this dryland location, and evaluate the potential for using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery for developing surface age models. The ability to remotely sense relative exposure ages has useful implications for preliminary mapping, selecting

  13. Self-Organization of Aging in a Modified Penna Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Gi Ok; Shim, Sugie

    The Penna model for biological aging is modified so that the fertility of each individual is determined by means of the number of activated mutations at that time. A new concept of "good" mutation, which makes an individual to mature enough to reproduce, is introduced. It is assumed that each individual can reproduce only during adulthood, which is determined by the number of activated mutations. The results of Monte Carlo calculations using the modified model show that the ranges of the reproductive age are broadened as time goes by, thus showing self-organization in the biological aging to the direction of the maximum self-conservation. In addition, the population, the survival rate, and the average life span were calculated and analyzed by changing the number of new mutations at birth. It is observed that the higher is the considered number of new mutations at birth, the shorter is the obtained average life span. The mortality functions are also calculated and they showed the exponential increase in adulthood, satisfying the Gompertz law.

  14. Healthy Aging Promotion through Neuroscientific Information-Based Strategies.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, Sofia; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V

    2015-10-01

    To ensure the well-being of a rapidly growing elderly population, it is fundamental to find strategies to foster healthy brain aging. With this intention, we designed a program of scientific-based lectures aimed at dissemination by established neuroscientists about brain function, brain plasticity and how lifestyle influences the brain. We also carried out a pilot study on the impact of the lectures on attendees. The objective was to provide information to elderly people in order to encourage them to identify unhealthy and healthy daily habits, and more importantly, to promote behavioral changes towards healthy brain aging. Here we report on our experience. In order to determine the impact of the lectures in the daily routine of the attendees, we asked them to fill out questionnaires. Preliminary results indicate that neuroscientific information-based strategies can be a useful method to have a positive impact on the lives of elderly, increase their awareness on how to improve brain function and promote positive lifestyle modifications. Furthermore, based on self-reported data, we also found that through this strategy it is possible to promote behavioral changes related to nutrition, sleep, and realization of physical and cognitively stimulating activities. Finally, based on the results obtained, the importance of promoting self-efficacy and the empowerment of the older populations is highlighted. PMID:26426029

  15. Reliability-based lifetime maintenance of aging highway bridges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enright, Michael P.; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2000-06-01

    As the nation's infrastructure continues to age, the cost of maintaining it at an acceptable safety level continues to increase. In the United States, about one of every three bridges is rated structurally deficient and/or functionally obsolete. It will require about 80 billion to eliminate the current backlog of bridge deficiencies and maintain repair levels. Unfortunately, the financial resources allocated for these activities fall extremely short of the demand. Although several existing and emerging NDT techniques are available to gather inspection data, current maintenance planning decisions for deficient bridges are based on data from subjective condition assessments and do not consider the reliability of bridge components and systems. Recently, reliability-based optimum maintenance planning strategies have been developed. They can be used to predict inspection and repair times to achieve minimum life-cycle cost of deteriorating structural systems. In this study, a reliability-based methodology which takes into account loading randomness and history, and randomness in strength and degradation resulting from aggressive environmental factors, is used to predict the time- dependent reliability of aging highway bridges. A methodology for incorporating inspection data into reliability predictions is also presented. Finally, optimal lifetime maintenance strategies are identified, in which optimal inspection/repair times are found based on minimum expected life-cycle cost under prescribed reliability constraints. The influence of discount rate on optimum solutions is evaluated.

  16. Healthy Aging Promotion through Neuroscientific Information-Based Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Seinfeld, Sofia; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V.

    2015-01-01

    To ensure the well-being of a rapidly growing elderly population, it is fundamental to find strategies to foster healthy brain aging. With this intention, we designed a program of scientific-based lectures aimed at dissemination by established neuroscientists about brain function, brain plasticity and how lifestyle influences the brain. We also carried out a pilot study on the impact of the lectures on attendees. The objective was to provide information to elderly people in order to encourage them to identify unhealthy and healthy daily habits, and more importantly, to promote behavioral changes towards healthy brain aging. Here we report on our experience. In order to determine the impact of the lectures in the daily routine of the attendees, we asked them to fill out questionnaires. Preliminary results indicate that neuroscientific information-based strategies can be a useful method to have a positive impact on the lives of elderly, increase their awareness on how to improve brain function and promote positive lifestyle modifications. Furthermore, based on self-reported data, we also found that through this strategy it is possible to promote behavioral changes related to nutrition, sleep, and realization of physical and cognitively stimulating activities. Finally, based on the results obtained, the importance of promoting self-efficacy and the empowerment of the older populations is highlighted. PMID:26426029

  17. Healthy Aging Promotion through Neuroscientific Information-Based Strategies.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, Sofia; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V

    2015-09-28

    To ensure the well-being of a rapidly growing elderly population, it is fundamental to find strategies to foster healthy brain aging. With this intention, we designed a program of scientific-based lectures aimed at dissemination by established neuroscientists about brain function, brain plasticity and how lifestyle influences the brain. We also carried out a pilot study on the impact of the lectures on attendees. The objective was to provide information to elderly people in order to encourage them to identify unhealthy and healthy daily habits, and more importantly, to promote behavioral changes towards healthy brain aging. Here we report on our experience. In order to determine the impact of the lectures in the daily routine of the attendees, we asked them to fill out questionnaires. Preliminary results indicate that neuroscientific information-based strategies can be a useful method to have a positive impact on the lives of elderly, increase their awareness on how to improve brain function and promote positive lifestyle modifications. Furthermore, based on self-reported data, we also found that through this strategy it is possible to promote behavioral changes related to nutrition, sleep, and realization of physical and cognitively stimulating activities. Finally, based on the results obtained, the importance of promoting self-efficacy and the empowerment of the older populations is highlighted.

  18. Multiple endemic states in age-structured SIR epidemic models.

    PubMed

    Franceschetti, Andrea; Pugliese, Andrea; Breda, Dmitri

    2012-07-01

    SIR age-structured models are very often used as a basic model of epidemic spread. Yet, their behaviour, under generic assumptions on contact rates between different age classes, is not completely known, and, in the most detailed analysis so far, Inaba (1990) was able to prove uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium only under a rather restrictive condition. Here, we show an example in the form of a 3x3 contact matrix in which multiple non-trivial steady states exist. This instance of non-uniqueness of positive equilibria differs from most existing ones for epidemic models, since it arises not from a backward transcritical bifurcation at the disease free equilibrium, but through two saddle-node bifurcations of the positive equilibrium. The dynamical behaviour of the model is analysed numerically around the range where multiple endemic equilibria exist; many other features are shown to occur, from coexistence of multiple attractive periodic solutions, some with extremely long period, to quasi-periodic and chaotic attractors. It is also shown that, if the contact rates are in the form of a 2x2 WAIFW matrix, uniqueness of non-trivial steady states always holds, so that 3 is the minimum dimension of the contact matrix to allow for multiple endemic equilibria.

  19. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  20. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  1. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  2. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  3. Chronic depression as a model disease for cerebral aging.

    PubMed

    Bewernick, Bettina H; Schlaepfer, Thomas E

    2013-03-01

    Conceptualizations of the underlying neurobiology of major depression have changed their focus from dysfunctions of neurotransmission to dysfunctions of neurogenesis and neuroprotection. The "neurogenesis hypothesis of depression" posits that changes in the rate of neurogenesis are the underlying mechanism in the pathology and treatment of major depression. Stress, neuroinflammation, dysfunctional insulin regulation, oxidative stress, and alterations in neurotrophic factors possibly contribute to the development of depression. The influence of antidepressant therapies, namely pharmacotherapy and neuroprotectants, on cellular plasticity are summarized. A dysfunction of complex neuronal networks as a consequence of neural degeneration in neuropsychiatric diseases has led to the application of deep brain stimulation. We discuss the way depression seen in the light of the neurogenesis hypothesis can be used as a model disease for cerebral aging. A common pathological mechanism in depression and cerebral aging-a dysfunction of neuroprotection and neurogenesis-is discussed. This has implications for new treatment methods.

  4. Dynamic analysis of a hepatitis B model with three-age-classes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Suxia; Zhou, Yicang

    2014-07-01

    Based on the fact that the likelihood of becoming chronically infected is dependent on age at primary infection Kane (1995) [2], Edmunds et al. (1993) [3], Medley et al. (2001) [4], and Ganem and Prince (2004) [6], we formulate a hepatitis B transmission model with three age classes. The reproduction number, R0 is defined and the dynamical behavior of the model is analyzed. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R0<1, and there exists at least one endemic equilibrium and that the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1. The unique endemic equilibrium and its global stability is obtained in a special case. Simulations are also conducted to compare the dynamical behavior of the model with and without age classes.

  5. Age affects chunk-based, but not rule-based learning in artificial grammar acquisition.

    PubMed

    Kürten, Julia; De Vries, Meinou H; Kowal, Kristina; Zwitserlood, Pienie; Flöel, Agnes

    2012-07-01

    Explicit learning is well known to decline with age, but divergent results have been reported for implicit learning. Here, we assessed the effect of aging on implicit vs. explicit learning within the same task. Fifty-five young (mean 32 years) and 55 elderly (mean 64 years) individuals were exposed to letter strings generated by an artificial grammar. Subsequently, participants classified novel strings as grammatical or nongrammatical. Acquisition of superficial ("chunk-based") and structural ("rule-based") features of the grammar were analyzed separately. We found that overall classification accuracy was diminished in the elderly, driven by decreased performance on items that required chunk-based knowledge. Performance on items requiring rule-based knowledge was comparable between groups. Results indicate that rule-based and chunk-based learning are differentially affected by age: while rule-based learning, reflecting implicit learning, is preserved, chunk-based learning, which contains at least some explicit learning aspects, declines with age. Our findings may explain divergent results on implicit learning tasks in previous studies on aging. They may also help to better understand compensatory mechanisms during the aging process.

  6. Model-based software design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iscoe, Neil; Liu, Zheng-Yang; Feng, Guohui; Yenne, Britt; Vansickle, Larry; Ballantyne, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Domain-specific knowledge is required to create specifications, generate code, and understand existing systems. Our approach to automating software design is based on instantiating an application domain model with industry-specific knowledge and then using that model to achieve the operational goals of specification elicitation and verification, reverse engineering, and code generation. Although many different specification models can be created from any particular domain model, each specification model is consistent and correct with respect to the domain model.

  7. Model-Based Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ifenthaler, Dirk; Seel, Norbert M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, there will be a particular focus on mental models and their application to inductive reasoning within the realm of instruction. A basic assumption of this study is the observation that the construction of mental models and related reasoning is a slowly developing capability of cognitive systems that emerges effectively with proper…

  8. Oxidative stress and age-related changes in T cells: is thalassemia a model of accelerated immune system aging?

    PubMed Central

    Ghatreh-Samani, Mahdi; Esmaeili, Nafiseh; Soleimani, Masoud; Asadi-Samani, Majid; Ghatreh-Samani, Keihan

    2016-01-01

    Iron overload in β-thalassemia major occurs mainly due to blood transfusion, an essential treatment for β-thalassemia major patients, which results in oxidative stress. It has been thought that oxidative stress causes elevation of immune system senescent cells. Under this condition, cells normally enhance in aging, which is referred to as premature immunosenescence. Because there is no animal model for immunosenescence, most knowledge on the immunosenescence pattern is based on induction of immunosenescence. In this review, we describe iron overload and oxidative stress in β-thalassemia major patients and how they make these patients a suitable human model for immunosenescence. We also consider oxidative stress in some kinds of chronic virus infections, which induce changes in the immune system similar to β-thalassemia major. In conclusion, a therapeutic approach used to improve the immune system in such chronic virus diseases, may change the immunosenescence state and make life conditions better for β-thalassemia major patients. PMID:27095931

  9. Oxidative stress and age-related changes in T cells: is thalassemia a model of accelerated immune system aging?

    PubMed

    Ghatreh-Samani, Mahdi; Esmaeili, Nafiseh; Soleimani, Masoud; Asadi-Samani, Majid; Ghatreh-Samani, Keihan; Shirzad, Hedayatolah

    2016-01-01

    Iron overload in β-thalassemia major occurs mainly due to blood transfusion, an essential treatment for β-thalassemia major patients, which results in oxidative stress. It has been thought that oxidative stress causes elevation of immune system senescent cells. Under this condition, cells normally enhance in aging, which is referred to as premature immunosenescence. Because there is no animal model for immunosenescence, most knowledge on the immunosenescence pattern is based on induction of immunosenescence. In this review, we describe iron overload and oxidative stress in β-thalassemia major patients and how they make these patients a suitable human model for immunosenescence. We also consider oxidative stress in some kinds of chronic virus infections, which induce changes in the immune system similar to β-thalassemia major. In conclusion, a therapeutic approach used to improve the immune system in such chronic virus diseases, may change the immunosenescence state and make life conditions better for β-thalassemia major patients.

  10. Age-correlated stress resistance improves fitness of yeast: support from agent-based simulations

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Resistance to stress is often heterogeneous among individuals within a population, which helps protect against intermittent stress (bet hedging). This is also the case for heat shock resistance in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Interestingly, the resistance appears to be continuously distributed (vs. binary, switch-like) and correlated with replicative age (vs. random). Older, slower-growing cells are more resistant than younger, faster-growing ones. Is there a fitness benefit to age-correlated stress resistance? Results Here this hypothesis is explored using a simple agent-based model, which simulates a population of individual cells that grow and replicate. Cells age by accumulating damage, which lowers their growth rate. They synthesize trehalose at a metabolic cost, which helps protect against heat shock. Proteins Tsl1 and Tps3 (trehalose synthase complex regulatory subunit TSL1 and TPS3) represent the trehalose synthesis complex and they are expressed using constant, age-dependent and stochastic terms. The model was constrained by calibration and comparison to data from the literature, including individual-based observations obtained using high-throughput microscopy and flow cytometry. A heterogeneity network was developed, which highlights the predominant sources and pathways of resistance heterogeneity. To determine the best trehalose synthesis strategy, model strains with different Tsl1/Tps3 expression parameters were placed in competition in an environment with intermittent heat shocks. Conclusions For high severities and low frequencies of heat shock, the winning strain used an age-dependent bet hedging strategy, which shows that there can be a benefit to age-correlated stress resistance. The study also illustrates the utility of combining individual-based observations and modeling to understand mechanisms underlying population heterogeneity, and the effect on fitness. PMID:24529069

  11. Principles of models based engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Dolin, R.M.; Hefele, J.

    1996-11-01

    This report describes a Models Based Engineering (MBE) philosophy and implementation strategy that has been developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory`s Center for Advanced Engineering Technology. A major theme in this discussion is that models based engineering is an information management technology enabling the development of information driven engineering. Unlike other information management technologies, models based engineering encompasses the breadth of engineering information, from design intent through product definition to consumer application.

  12. Cognitive aging and hearing acuity: modeling spoken language comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Wingfield, Arthur; Amichetti, Nicole M.; Lash, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    The comprehension of spoken language has been characterized by a number of “local” theories that have focused on specific aspects of the task: models of word recognition, models of selective attention, accounts of thematic role assignment at the sentence level, and so forth. The ease of language understanding (ELU) model (Rönnberg et al., 2013) stands as one of the few attempts to offer a fully encompassing framework for language understanding. In this paper we discuss interactions between perceptual, linguistic, and cognitive factors in spoken language understanding. Central to our presentation is an examination of aspects of the ELU model that apply especially to spoken language comprehension in adult aging, where speed of processing, working memory capacity, and hearing acuity are often compromised. We discuss, in relation to the ELU model, conceptions of working memory and its capacity limitations, the use of linguistic context to aid in speech recognition and the importance of inhibitory control, and language comprehension at the sentence level. Throughout this paper we offer a constructive look at the ELU model; where it is strong and where there are gaps to be filled. PMID:26124724

  13. Reconciling Hf-W Model Ages of IVB Parent Body with Numerical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, W.; Breuer, D.; Kleine, T.; Kruijer, T.

    2016-08-01

    We calculated the differentiation of the parent body of IVB iron meteorites comparing its evolution to the metal separation data. Our models are consistent with the separation ages inferred from the Hf-W chronology.

  14. Stochastic lattice model for bone remodeling and aging.

    PubMed

    Weinkamer, Richard; Hartmann, Markus A; Brechet, Yves; Fratzl, Peter

    2004-11-26

    We investigate the remodeling process of trabecular bone inside a human vertebral body using a stochastic lattice model, in which the ability of living bone to adapt to mechanical stimuli is incorporated. Our simulations show the emergence of a networklike structure similar to real trabecular bone. With time, the bone volume fraction reaches a steady state. The microstructure, however, coarsens with a typical length in the system following a power law. The simulation results suggest that a coarsening of the trabecular structure should occur as a natural aging phenomenon, not related to disease.

  15. A phylogenetically based transcriptome age index mirrors ontogenetic divergence patterns.

    PubMed

    Domazet-Lošo, Tomislav; Tautz, Diethard

    2010-12-01

    Parallels between phylogeny and ontogeny have been discussed for almost two centuries, and a number of theories have been proposed to explain such patterns. Especially elusive is the phylotypic stage, a phase during development where species within a phylum are particularly similar to each other. Although this has formerly been interpreted as a recapitulation of phylogeny, it is now thought to reflect an ontogenetic progression phase, where strong constraints on developmental regulation and gene interactions exist. Several studies have shown that genes expressed during this stage evolve at a slower rate, but it has so far not been possible to derive an unequivocal molecular signature associated with this stage. Here we use a combination of phylostratigraphy and stage-specific gene expression data to generate a cumulative index that reflects the evolutionary age of the transcriptome at given ontogenetic stages. Using zebrafish ontogeny and adult development as a model, we find that the phylotypic stage does indeed express the oldest transcriptome set and that younger sets are expressed during early and late development, thus faithfully mirroring the hourglass model of morphological divergence. Reproductively active animals show the youngest transcriptome, with major differences between males and females. Notably, ageing animals express increasingly older genes. Comparisons with similar data sets from flies and nematodes show that this pattern occurs across phyla. Our results indicate that an old transcriptome marks the phylotypic phase and that phylogenetic differences at other ontogenetic stages correlate with the expression of newly evolved genes. PMID:21150997

  16. Accelerated thermal aging of petroleum-based ferrofluids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segal, V.; Nattrass, D.; Raj, K.; Leonard, D.

    1999-07-01

    The effect of elevated temperature on the physical and insulating properties of ferrofluid specifically developed for use as a liquid dielectric (D-fluid) for power transformers has been investigated. The D-fluid was produced as a colloidal mix of a specifically synthesized ferrofluid with a conventional mineral oil, and it was subjected to thermal aging conditions modeled after a typical power transformer where the insulation fluid is expected to retain its dielectric performance for about 40 years of continuous service in a sealed tank. The well-known Arrhenius relationship was employed to model "life in service" for up to 40 years at 105°C which corresponded to holding the samples in sealed jars for 10 weeks at 185°C. Another set of small ampules (5 ml) was prepared to test the main physical properties after even longer aging. D-fluid tested after a period of 34 and 50 weeks at 185°C showed no degradation of thermal or colloid stability. The dielectric colloid was also subjected to a 21 day-long test at 110°C in a sealed jar in the presence of typical transformer materials: copper, cellulose, and silicon steel (so-called "bomb" test). Finally, the ferrofluid went through an oxidation stability test (ASTM D2440). Test results show that the newly developed dielectric colloid satisfies the long-term service requirements the transformer users typically apply to conventional mineral oils.

  17. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  18. Bone age assessment by content-based image retrieval and case-based reasoning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Benedikt; Welter, Petra; Grouls, Christoph; Günther, Rolf W.; Deserno, Thomas M.

    2011-03-01

    Skeletal maturity is assessed visually by comparing hand radiographs to a standardized reference image atlas. Most common are the methods by Greulich & Pyle and Tanner & Whitehouse. For computer-aided diagnosis (CAD), local image regions of interest (ROI) such as the epiphysis or the carpal areas are extracted and evaluated. Heuristic approaches trying to automatically extract, measure and classify bones and distances between bones suffer from the high variability of biological material and the differences in bone development resulting from age, gender and ethnic origin. Content-based image retrieval (CBIR) provides a robust solution without delineating and measuring bones. In this work, epiphyseal ROIs (eROIS) of a hand radiograph are compared to previous cases with known age, mimicking a human observer. Leaving-one-out experiments are conducted on 1,102 left hand radiographs and 15,428 metacarpal and phalangeal eROIs from the publicly available USC hand atlas. The similarity of the eROIs is assessed by a combination of cross-correlation, image distortion model, and Tamura texture features, yielding a mean error rate of 0.97 years and a variance of below 0.63 years. Furthermore, we introduce a publicly available online-demonstration system, where queries on the USC dataset as well as on uploaded radiographs are performed for instant CAD. In future, we plan to evaluate physician with CBIR-CAD against physician without CBIR-CAD rather than physician vs. CBIR-CAD.

  19. Modelling age and secular differences in fitness between basketball players.

    PubMed

    Drinkwater, Eric J; Hopkins, Will G; McKenna, Michael J; Hunt, Patrick H; Pyne, David B

    2007-06-01

    Concerns about the value of physical testing and apparently declining test performance in junior basketball players prompted this retrospective study of trends in anthropometric and fitness test scores related to recruitment age and recruitment year. The participants were 1011 females and 1087 males entering Basketball Australia's State and National programmes (1862 and 236 players, respectively). Players were tested on 2.6 +/- 2.0 (mean +/- s) occasions over 0.8 +/- 1.0 year. Test scores were adjusted to recruitment age (14-19 years) and recruitment year (1996-2003) using mixed modelling. Effects were estimated by log transformation and expressed as standardized (Cohen) differences in means. National players scored more favourably than State players on all tests, with the differences being generally small (standardized differences, 0.2-0.6) or moderate (0.6-1.2). On all tests, males scored more favourably than females, with large standardized differences (>1.2). Athletes entering at age 16 performed at least moderately better than athletes entering at age 14 on most tests (standardized differences, 0.7-2.1), but test scores often plateaued or began to deteriorate at around 17 years. Some fitness scores deteriorated over the 8-year period, most notably a moderate increase in sprint time and moderate (National male) to large (National female) declines in shuttle run performance. Variation in test scores between National players was generally less than that between State players (ratio of standard deviations, 0.83-1.18). More favourable means and lower variability in athletes of a higher standard highlight the potential utility of these tests in junior basketball programmes, although secular declines should be a major concern of Australian basketball coaches.

  20. Age determination by back length for African savanna elephants: extending age assessment techniques for aerial-based surveys.

    PubMed

    Trimble, Morgan J; van Aarde, Rudi J; Ferreira, Sam M; Nørgaard, Camilla F; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C; Moss, Cynthia J

    2011-01-01

    Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables.

  1. Age Determination by Back Length for African Savanna Elephants: Extending Age Assessment Techniques for Aerial-Based Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.; Ferreira, Sam M.; Nørgaard, Camilla F.; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C.; Moss, Cynthia J.

    2011-01-01

    Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables. PMID:22028925

  2. Lattice percolation approach to 3D modeling of tissue aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorshkov, Vyacheslav; Privman, Vladimir; Libert, Sergiy

    2016-11-01

    We describe a 3D percolation-type approach to modeling of the processes of aging and certain other properties of tissues analyzed as systems consisting of interacting cells. Lattice sites are designated as regular (healthy) cells, senescent cells, or vacancies left by dead (apoptotic) cells. The system is then studied dynamically with the ongoing processes including regular cell dividing to fill vacant sites, healthy cells becoming senescent or dying, and senescent cells dying. Statistical-mechanics description can provide patterns of time dependence and snapshots of morphological system properties. The developed theoretical modeling approach is found not only to corroborate recent experimental findings that inhibition of senescence can lead to extended lifespan, but also to confirm that, unlike 2D, in 3D senescent cells can contribute to tissue's connectivity/mechanical stability. The latter effect occurs by senescent cells forming the second infinite cluster in the regime when the regular (healthy) cell's infinite cluster still exists.

  3. Age-aware solder performance models : level 2 milestone completion.

    SciTech Connect

    Neilsen, Michael K.; Vianco, Paul Thomas; Neidigk, Matthew Aaron; Holm, Elizabeth Ann

    2010-09-01

    Legislated requirements and industry standards are replacing eutectic lead-tin (Pb-Sn) solders with lead-free (Pb-free) solders in future component designs and in replacements and retrofits. Since Pb-free solders have not yet seen service for long periods, their long-term behavior is poorly characterized. Because understanding the reliability of Pb-free solders is critical to supporting the next generation of circuit board designs, it is imperative that we develop, validate and exercise a solder lifetime model that can capture the thermomechanical response of Pb-free solder joints in stockpile components. To this end, an ASC Level 2 milestone was identified for fiscal year 2010: Milestone 3605: Utilize experimentally validated constitutive model for lead-free solder to simulate aging and reliability of solder joints in stockpile components. This report documents the completion of this milestone, including evidence that the milestone completion criteria were met and a summary of the milestone Program Review.

  4. Constitutive Modeling and Testing of Polymer Matrix Composites Incorporating Physical Aging at Elevated Temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veazie, David R.

    1998-01-01

    Advanced polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are desirable for structural materials in diverse applications such as aircraft, civil infrastructure and biomedical implants because of their improved strength-to-weight and stiffness-to-weight ratios. For example, the next generation military and commercial aircraft requires applications for high strength, low weight structural components subjected to elevated temperatures. A possible disadvantage of polymer-based composites is that the physical and mechanical properties of the matrix often change significantly over time due to the exposure of elevated temperatures and environmental factors. For design, long term exposure (i.e. aging) of PMC's must be accounted for through constitutive models in order to accurately assess the effects of aging on performance, crack initiation and remaining life. One particular aspect of this aging process, physical aging, is considered in this research.

  5. Modeling Active Aging and Explicit Memory: An Empirical Study.

    PubMed

    Ponce de León, Laura Ponce; Lévy, Jean Pierre; Fernández, Tomás; Ballesteros, Soledad

    2015-08-01

    The rapid growth of the population of older adults and their concomitant psychological status and health needs have captured the attention of researchers and health professionals. To help fill the void of literature available to social workers interested in mental health promotion and aging, the authors provide a model for active aging that uses psychosocial variables. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationships among the latent variables of the state of explicit memory, the perception of social resources, depression, and the perception of quality of life in a sample of 184 older adults. The results suggest that explicit memory is not a direct indicator of the perception of quality of life, but it could be considered an indirect indicator as it is positively correlated with perception of social resources and negatively correlated with depression. These last two variables influenced the perception of quality of life directly, the former positively and the latter negatively. The main outcome suggests that the perception of social support improves explicit memory and quality of life and reduces depression in active older adults. The findings also suggest that gerontological professionals should design memory training programs, improve available social resources, and offer environments with opportunities to exercise memory.

  6. SFT based cosmological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koshelev, Alexey S.

    2010-11-01

    We consider the appearance of multiple scalar fields in SFT inspired non-local models with a single scalar field at late times. In this regime all the scalar fields are free. This system minimally coupled to gravity is mainly analyzed in this note. We build one exact solution to the equations of motion. We consider an exactly solvable model which obeys a simple exact solution in the cosmological context for the Friedmann equations and that reproduces the behavior expected from SFT in the asymptotic regime.

  7. Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Swaziland: Modeling the Impact of Age Targeting

    PubMed Central

    Kripke, Katharine; Okello, Velephi; Maziya, Vusi; Benzerga, Wendy; Mirira, Munamato; Gold, Elizabeth; Schnure, Melissa; Sgaier, Sema; Castor, Delivette; Reed, Jason

    2016-01-01

    Background Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention has been a priority for Swaziland since 2009. Initially focusing on men ages 15–49, the Ministry of Health reduced the minimum age for VMMC from 15 to 10 years in 2012, given the existing demand among 10- to 15-year-olds. To understand the implications of focusing VMMC service delivery on specific age groups, the MOH undertook a modeling exercise to inform policy and implementation in 2013–2014. Methods and Findings The impact and cost of circumcising specific age groups were assessed using the Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a simple compartmental model. We used age-specific HIV incidence from the Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS). Population, mortality, births, and HIV prevalence were imported from a national Spectrum/Goals model recently updated in consultation with country stakeholders. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the most recent Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey. The lowest numbers of VMMCs per HIV infection averted are achieved when males ages 15–19, 20–24, 25–29, and 30–34 are circumcised, although the uncertainty bounds for the estimates overlap. Circumcising males ages 25–29 and 20–24 provides the most immediate reduction in HIV incidence. Circumcising males ages 15–19, 20–24, and 25–29 provides the greatest magnitude incidence reduction within 15 years. The lowest cost per HIV infection averted is achieved by circumcising males ages 15–34: $870 U.S. dollars (USD). Conclusions The potential impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up in Swaziland are not uniform. They vary by the age group of males circumcised. Based on the results of this modeling exercise, the Ministry of Health’s Swaziland Male Circumcision Strategic and Operational Plan 2014–2018 adopted an implementation strategy that calls for circumcision to be scaled up to 50% coverage for neonates, 80

  8. A theory of the cancer age-specific incidence data based on extreme value distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soto-Ortiz, Luis; Brody, James P.

    2012-03-01

    The incidence of cancers varies with age, if normalized this is called the age-specific incidence. A mathematical model that describes this variation should provide a better understanding of how cancers develop. We suggest that the age-specific incidence should follow an extreme value distribution, based on three widely accepted assumptions: (1) a tumor develops from a single cell, (2) many potential tumor progenitor cells exist in a tissue, and (3) cancer is diagnosed when the first of these many potential tumor cells develops into a tumor. We tested this by comparing the predicted distribution to the age-specific incidence data for colon and prostate carcinomas collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results network of 17 cancer registries. We found that colon carcinoma age-specific incidence data is consistent with an extreme value distribution, while prostate carcinomas age-specific incidence data generally follows the distribution. This model indicates that both colon and prostate carcinomas only occur in a subset of the population (22% for prostate and 13.5% for colon.) Because of their very general nature, extreme value distributions might be applicable to understanding other chronic human diseases.

  9. Rule-based simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nieten, Joseph L.; Seraphine, Kathleen M.

    1991-01-01

    Procedural modeling systems, rule based modeling systems, and a method for converting a procedural model to a rule based model are described. Simulation models are used to represent real time engineering systems. A real time system can be represented by a set of equations or functions connected so that they perform in the same manner as the actual system. Most modeling system languages are based on FORTRAN or some other procedural language. Therefore, they must be enhanced with a reaction capability. Rule based systems are reactive by definition. Once the engineering system has been decomposed into a set of calculations using only basic algebraic unary operations, a knowledge network of calculations and functions can be constructed. The knowledge network required by a rule based system can be generated by a knowledge acquisition tool or a source level compiler. The compiler would take an existing model source file, a syntax template, and a symbol table and generate the knowledge network. Thus, existing procedural models can be translated and executed by a rule based system. Neural models can be provide the high capacity data manipulation required by the most complex real time models.

  10. Modelling age-heterogeneous Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni survey data via alignment factors

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Reliable maps of the geographical distribution, number of infected individuals and burden estimates of schistosomiasis are essential tools to plan, monitor and evaluate control programmes. Large-scale disease mapping and prediction efforts rely on compiled historical survey data obtained from the peer-reviewed literature and unpublished reports. Schistosomiasis surveys usually focus on school-aged children, whereas some surveys include entire communities. However, data are often reported for non-standard age groups or entire study populations. Existing geostatistical models ignore either the age-dependence of the disease risk or omit surveys considered too heterogeneous. Methods We developed Bayesian geostatistical models and analysed existing schistosomiasis prevalence data by estimating alignment factors to relate surveys on individuals aged ≤ 20 years with surveys on individuals aged > 20 years and entire communities. Schistosomiasis prevalence data for 11 countries in the eastern African region were extracted from an open-access global database pertaining to neglected tropical diseases. We assumed that alignment factors were constant for the whole region or a specific country. Results Regional alignment factors indicated that the risk of a Schistosoma haematobium infection in individuals aged > 20 years and in entire communities is smaller than in individuals ≤ 20 years, 0.83 and 0.91, respectively. Country-specific alignment factors varied from 0.79 (Ethiopia) to 1.06 (Zambia) for community-based surveys. For S. mansoni, the regional alignment factor for entire communities was 0.96 with country-specific factors ranging from 0.84 (Burundi) to 1.13 (Uganda). Conclusions The proposed approach could be used to align inherent age-heterogeneity between school-based and community-based schistosomiasis surveys to render compiled data for risk mapping and prediction more accurate. PMID:21774790

  11. Compact modeling of total ionizing dose and aging effects in MOS technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Esqueda, Ivan S.; Barnaby, Hugh J.; King, Michael Patrick

    2015-06-18

    This paper presents a physics-based compact modeling approach that incorporates the impact of total ionizing dose (TID) and stress-induced defects into simulations of metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices and integrated circuits (ICs). This approach utilizes calculations of surface potential (ψs) to capture the charge contribution from oxide trapped charge and interface traps and to describe their impact on MOS electrostatics and device operating characteristics as a function of ionizing radiation exposure and aging effects. The modeling approach is demonstrated for bulk and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) MOS device. The formulation is verified using TCAD simulations and through the comparison of model calculations and experimental I-V characteristics from irradiated devices. The presented approach is suitable for modeling TID and aging effects in advanced MOS devices and ICs.

  12. Compact modeling of total ionizing dose and aging effects in MOS technologies

    DOE PAGES

    Esqueda, Ivan S.; Barnaby, Hugh J.; King, Michael Patrick

    2015-06-18

    This paper presents a physics-based compact modeling approach that incorporates the impact of total ionizing dose (TID) and stress-induced defects into simulations of metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices and integrated circuits (ICs). This approach utilizes calculations of surface potential (ψs) to capture the charge contribution from oxide trapped charge and interface traps and to describe their impact on MOS electrostatics and device operating characteristics as a function of ionizing radiation exposure and aging effects. The modeling approach is demonstrated for bulk and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) MOS device. The formulation is verified using TCAD simulations and through the comparison of model calculations and experimentalmore » I-V characteristics from irradiated devices. The presented approach is suitable for modeling TID and aging effects in advanced MOS devices and ICs.« less

  13. Modeling Diverse Pathways to Age Progressive Volcanism in Subduction Zones.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kincaid, C. R.; Szwaja, S.; Sylvia, R. T.; Druken, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    One of the best, and most challenging clues to unraveling mantle circulation patterns in subduction zones comes in the form of age progressive volcanic and geochemical trends. Hard fought geological data from many subduction zones, like Tonga-Lau, the Cascades and Costa-Rica/Nicaragua, reveal striking temporal patterns used in defining mantle flow directions and rates. We summarize results from laboratory subduction models showing a range in circulation and thermal-chemical transport processes. These interaction styles are capable of producing such trends, often reflecting apparent instead of actual mantle velocities. Lab experiments use a glucose working fluid to represent Earth's upper mantle and kinematically driven plates to produce a range in slab sinking and related wedge transport patterns. Kinematic forcing assumes most of the super-adiabatic temperature gradient available to drive major downwellings is in the tabular slabs. Moreover, sinking styles for fully dynamic subduction depend on many complicating factors that are only poorly understood and which can vary widely even for repeated parameter combinations. Kinematic models have the benefit of precise, repeatable control of slab motions and wedge flow responses. Results generated with these techniques show the evolution of near-surface thermal-chemical-rheological heterogeneities leads to age progressive surface expressions in a variety of ways. One set of experiments shows that rollback and back-arc extension combine to produce distinct modes of linear, age progressive melt delivery to the surface through a) erosion of the rheological boundary layer beneath the overriding plate, and deformation and redistribution of both b) mantle residuum produced from decompression melting and c) formerly active, buoyant plumes. Additional experiments consider buoyant diapirs rising in a wedge under the influence of rollback, back-arc spreading and slab-gaps. Strongly deflected diapirs, experiencing variable rise

  14. Opposite differential risks for autism and schizophrenia based on maternal age, paternal age, and parental age differences

    PubMed Central

    Byars, Sean G.; Boomsma, Jacobus J.

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives: Effects of maternal and paternal age on offspring autism and schizophrenia risks have been studied for over three decades, but inconsistent risks have often been found, precluding well-informed speculation on why these age-related risks might exist. Methodology: To help clarify this situation we analysed a massive single population sample from Denmark including the full spectrum of autistic and schizophrenic disorders (eliminating between-study confounding), used up to 30 follow-up years, controlled for over 20 potentially confounding factors and interpret the ultimate causation of the observed risk patterns using generally accepted principles of parent-offspring conflict and life-history theory. Results: We evaluated the effects of paternal age, maternal age and parental age difference on offspring mental disorders and found consistently similar risk patterns for related disorders and markedly different patterns between autistic and schizophrenic disorders. Older fathers and mothers both conferred increased risk for autistic but not schizophrenic disorders, but autism risk was reduced in younger parents and offspring of younger mothers had increased risk for many schizophrenic disorders. Risk for most disorders also increased when parents were more dissimilarly aged. Monotonically increasing autism risk is consistent with mutation accumulation as fathers’ age, but this explanation is invalid for schizophrenic disorders, which were not related to paternal age and were negatively correlated with maternal age. Conclusions and implications: We propose that the observed maternally induced risk patterns ultimately reflect a shifting ancestral life-history trade-off between current and future reproduction, mediated by an initially high but subsequently decreasing tendency to constrain foetal provisioning as women proceed from first to final pregnancy. PMID:27637201

  15. Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanafiah, Hazlenah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2013-11-01

    In recent years, the study of fertility has been getting a lot of attention among research abroad following fear of deterioration of fertility led by the rapid economy development. Hence, this study examines the feasibility of developing fertility forecasts based on age structure. Lee Carter model (1992) is applied in this study as it is an established and widely used model in analysing demographic aspects. A singular value decomposition approach is incorporated with an ARIMA model to estimate age specific fertility rates in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1958-2007. Residual plots is used to measure the goodness of fit of the model. Fertility index forecast using random walk drift is then utilised to predict the future age specific fertility. Results indicate that the proposed model provides a relatively good and reasonable data fitting. In addition, there is an apparent and continuous decline in age specific fertility curves in the next 10 years, particularly among mothers' in their early 20's and 40's. The study on the fertility is vital in order to maintain a balance between the population growth and the provision of facilities related resources.

  16. Multi-Access Education: A Model for Instructional Delivery in the Information Age.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lever-Duffy, Judy

    Although it is evident that the Industrial Age has given way to the Information Age, educational institutions are still using Industrial Age models of instruction that encourage passive learning and stress knowledge mastery. In the media-rich Information Age, educators must shift to instructional models that put learners at the core of both the…

  17. Acrylamide induces accelerated endothelial aging in a human cell model.

    PubMed

    Sellier, Cyril; Boulanger, Eric; Maladry, François; Tessier, Frédéric J; Lorenzi, Rodrigo; Nevière, Rémi; Desreumaux, Pierre; Beuscart, Jean-Baptiste; Puisieux, François; Grossin, Nicolas

    2015-09-01

    Acrylamide (AAM) has been recently discovered in food as a Maillard reaction product. AAM and glycidamide (GA), its metabolite, have been described as probably carcinogenic to humans. It is widely established that senescence and carcinogenicity are closely related. In vitro, endothelial aging is characterized by replicative senescence in which primary cells in culture lose their ability to divide. Our objective was to assess the effects of AAM and GA on human endothelial cell senescence. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) cultured in vitro were used as model. HUVECs were cultured over 3 months with AAM or GA (1, 10 or 100 μM) until growth arrest. To analyze senescence, β-galactosidase activity and telomere length of HUVECs were measured by cytometry and semi-quantitative PCR, respectively. At all tested concentrations, AAM or GA reduced cell population doubling compared to the control condition (p < 0.001). β-galactosidase activity in endothelial cells was increased when exposed to AAM (≥10 μM) or GA (≥1 μM) (p < 0.05). AAM (≥10 μM) or GA (100 μM) accelerated telomere shortening in HUVECs (p < 0.05). In conclusion, in vitro chronic exposure to AAM or GA at low concentrations induces accelerated senescence. This result suggests that an exposure to AAM might contribute to endothelial aging.

  18. Epigenetic contribution to age distribution of mortality within the Penna model.

    PubMed

    Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M S; Maksymowicz, A Z

    2015-06-01

    Some modifications of the simple asexual Penna model, enriched by epigenetic contributions, are presented. The standard bit-string Penna model of biological aging and population evolution is based on an inherited DNA structure which defines the future life of a newly born individuals, when genes are activated by the biological clock, and the predefined genetic death is fully controlled by the number of defected genes. Epigenomes allow to introduce additional mechanism of gene activation or silencing without affecting the DNA genome itself. It may be either inherited or may reflect external, environmental factors. In the presented model, information read from the introduced epigenome may alter gene expression that may be stopped or re-activated. We concentrate on the influence of epigenetics on the age a distribution of genetic mortality m(a). Changes in m(a) are strong for the case of inherited epigenetic contribution with nearly perfect inheritance and 'positive' epigenome that partly ignores the 'bad' mutations. We conclude that the epigenetic contribution may influence population structure m(a) and could be, at least partly, responsible for deviation of m(a) distribution from the Gompertz law. In short, we claim that proposed epigenetic contribution may be seen as a candidate for possible explanation of observed deviation from the Gompertz law, also among senior members of society. A very simple model was used in this paper and many crucial mechanisms of biological aging were omitted. Therefore, further work based on a more realistic models is necessary. PMID:25666268

  19. Basis for the ICRP`s age-specific biokinetic model for uranium

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.

    1994-12-01

    In an effort motivated largely by the Chernobyl nuclear accident, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is developing age-specific biokinetic models and dose coefficients for environmentally important radionuclides. This paper describes the ICRP`s age-specific biokinetic model for uranium. The model is constructed within a physiologically based framework originally developed for application to the alkaline earth elements but sufficiently general to apply to the larger class of bone-volume-seeking elements. Transfer rates for a reference adult are based mainly on: (1) measurements of uranium in blood and excreta of several human subjects who were intravenously injected with uranium; (2) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of some of those subjects; (3) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of occupationally and non-occupationally exposed subjects; (4) data on baboons, dogs, and smaller laboratory animals exposed to uranium for experimental purposes; and (5) consideration of the physiological processes thought to control retention and translocation of uranium in the body. Transfer rates for the adult are extended to children by application of a set of generic assumptions applied by the ICRP to calcium-like elements. These assumptions were derived mainly from observations of the age-specific biokinetics of the alkaline earth elements and lead in humans and laboratory animals but are consistent with available age-specific biokinetic data on uranium. 82 refs., 17 figs., 8 tabs.

  20. Modelling the ages and metallicities of early-type galaxies in Fundamental Plane space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, L. A.; Somerville, R. S.; Primack, J. R.; Croton, D. J.; Covington, M. D.; Graves, G. J.; Faber, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    Recent observations have probed the formation histories of nearby elliptical galaxies by tracking correlations between the stellar population parameters, age and metallicity, and the structural parameters that enter the Fundamental Plane, size Re, and velocity dispersion σ. These studies have found intriguing correlations between these four parameters. In this work, we make use of a semi-analytic model, based on halo merger trees extracted from the Bolshoi cosmological simulation, that predicts the structural properties of spheroid-dominated galaxies based on an analytic model that has been tested and calibrated against an extensive suite of hydrodynamic+N-body binary merger simulations. We predict the Re, σ, luminosity, age, and metallicity of spheroid-dominated galaxies, enabling us to compare directly to observations. Our model predicts a strong correlation between age and σ for early-type galaxies, and no significant correlation between age and radius, in agreement with observations. In addition, we predict a strong correlation between metallicity and σ, and a weak correlation between metallicity and Re, in qualitative agreement with observations. We find that the correlations with σ arise as a result of the strong link between σ and the galaxy's assembly time. Minor mergers produce a large change in radius while leaving σ nearly the same, which explains the weaker trends with radius.

  1. Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model.

    PubMed

    Mellem, Daniel; Fischer, Frank; Jaspers, Sören; Wenck, Horst; Rübhausen, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes. PMID:26771181

  2. Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model

    PubMed Central

    Mellem, Daniel; Fischer, Frank; Jaspers, Sören; Wenck, Horst; Rübhausen, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes. PMID:26771181

  3. Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model.

    PubMed

    Mellem, Daniel; Fischer, Frank; Jaspers, Sören; Wenck, Horst; Rübhausen, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes.

  4. Age and structure of a model vapour-deposited glass

    PubMed Central

    Reid, Daniel R.; Lyubimov, Ivan; Ediger, M. D.; de Pablo, Juan J.

    2016-01-01

    Glass films prepared by a process of physical vapour deposition have been shown to have thermodynamic and kinetic stability comparable to those of ordinary glasses aged for thousands of years. A central question in the study of vapour-deposited glasses, particularly in light of new knowledge regarding anisotropy in these materials, is whether the ultra-stable glassy films formed by vapour deposition are ever equivalent to those obtained by liquid cooling. Here we present a computational study of vapour deposition for a two-dimensional glass forming liquid using a methodology, which closely mimics experiment. We find that for the model considered here, structures that arise in vapour-deposited materials are statistically identical to those observed in ordinary glasses, provided the two are compared at the same inherent structure energy. We also find that newly deposited hot molecules produce cascades of hot particles that propagate far into the film, possibly influencing the relaxation of the material. PMID:27762262

  5. Ploidy, sex and crossing over in an evolutionary aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo, Matheus P.; Onody, Roberto N.

    2006-02-01

    Nowadays, many forms of reproduction coexist in nature: Asexual, sexual, apomictic and meiotic parthenogenesis, hermaphroditism and parasex. The mechanisms of their evolution and what made them successful reproductive alternatives are very challenging and debated questions. Here, using a simple evolutionary aging model, we give a possible scenario. By studying the performance of populations where individuals may have diverse characteristics-different ploidies, sex with or without crossing over, as well as the absence of sex-we find an evolution sequence that may explain why there are actually two major or leading groups: Sexual and asexual. We also investigate the dependence of these characteristics on different conditions of fertility and deleterious mutations. Finally, if the primeval organisms on Earth were, in fact, asexual individuals we conjecture that the sexual form of reproduction could have more easily been set and found its niche during a period of low-intensity mutations.

  6. Anti-Aging Strategies Based on Cellular Reprogramming.

    PubMed

    Ocampo, Alejandro; Reddy, Pradeep; Izpisua Belmonte, Juan Carlos

    2016-08-01

    Aging can be defined as the progressive decline in the ability of a cell or organism to resist stress and disease. Recent advances in cellular reprogramming technologies have enabled detailed analyses of the aging process, often involving cell types derived from aged individuals, or patients with premature aging syndromes. In this review we discuss how cellular reprogramming allows the recapitulation of aging in a dish, describing novel experimental approaches to investigate the aging process. Finally, we explore the role of epigenetic dysregulation as a driver of aging, discussing how epigenetic reprogramming may be harnessed to ameliorate aging hallmarks, both in vitro and in vivo. A better understanding of the reprogramming process may indeed assist the development of novel therapeutic strategies to extend a healthy lifespan. PMID:27426043

  7. Model based vibration monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Esat, I.; Paya, B.; Badi, M.N.M.

    1996-11-01

    The principal source of vibratory excitation of gear system is the unsteady component of the relative angular motion of pair of meshing spur gears. This vibratory excitation is described by the transmission error. The transmission error present itself as a varying force at the contact point of the meshing gear teeth. The varying force is also influenced by the varying tooth stiffness due to change of orientation of teeth relative to each other, during the contact phase of each pair. Such a varying force produces both lateral and torsional excitation to the gear system. This paper presents analytical formulation of a simple two meshing spur gear system as a three mass system (18 DOF). The mathematical model also incorporates the analytical formulation of the tooth stiffness. The analytical results are compared with the experimental results. At this stage of analysis the procedure developed for handling the nonlinear influences of the tooth geometry is not fully implemented and the tooth stiffness taken as a constant value representing the average tooth stiffness. The comparison between the analytical and experimental results are encouraging as three main frequency obtained from FFT of the experimental results correlates very closely with the analytical results.

  8. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  9. Constructing Regional Groundwater Models from Geophysical Data of Varying Type, Age, and Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christiansen, A. V.; Auken, E.; Marker, P. A.; Vilhelmsen, T. N.; Foged, N.; Wernberg, T.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

    2015-12-01

    Regional hydrological models are important tools in water resources management, but prediction uncertainties are often high due to non-uniqueness of the hydrostratigraphical model. This model is often based on borehole lithology only. However, a much better resolution can be obtained from large geophysical datasets covering the entire domain. Using boreholes to link between hydrostratigraphical classes and resistivity is efficient and emphasizes the need for an all-inclusive data interpretation procedure that can be integrated in groundwater model calibration. We present an automatic method for parameterization of a 3D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models. The objective is to create a direct input to regional groundwater models for sedimentary areas, where the sand/clay distribution governs the groundwater flow. The resistivity input is all-inclusive in the sense that we include data from a variety of instruments (DC and EM, ground-based and airborne), with a varying spatial density and varying ages and quality. The coupling between hydrological and geophysical parameters is managed using a translator function with spatially variable parameters, which is calibrated against observed lithological data. In other words, the translator function interprets the geophysical resistivities into a 3D clay fraction model and the 3D clay fraction model is then turned into a zonation for the hydrological model by a K-means clustering. We present the methodology by show-casing a study from Denmark were a regional groundwater model is constructed by including lithological information from 3100 boreholes over an 710 sqkm area. The geophysical models spans more than 30 years of data collection and includes approx. 225,000 DC models, and 35,000 EM models, airborne as well as groundbased. The final model was calibrated giving parameters that were comparable with existing models based on thorough and time-consuming manual

  10. Age-Period-Cohort Models in Cancer Surveillance Research: Ready for Prime Time?

    PubMed Central

    Rosenberg, Philip S.; Anderson, William F.

    2011-01-01

    Standard descriptive methods for the analysis of cancer surveillance data include canonical plots based on the lexis diagram, directly age-standardized rates (ASR), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model has been used less often. Here, we argue that it merits much broader use. Firstly, we describe close connections between estimable functions of the model parameters and standard quantities such as the ASR, EAPC, and joinpoints. Estimable functions have the added value of being fully adjusted for period and cohort effects, and generally more precise. Secondly, the APC model provides the descriptive epidemiologist with powerful new tools, including rigorous statistical methods for comparative analyses and the ability to project the future burden of cancer. We illustrate these principles using invasive female breast cancer incidence in the United States, but these concepts apply equally well to other cancer sites for incidence or mortality. PMID:21610223

  11. Multi-State Physics Models of Aging Passive Components in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Layton, Robert F.; Heasler, Patrick G.; Toloczko, Mychailo B.

    2011-03-13

    Multi-state Markov modeling has proved to be a promising approach to estimating the reliability of passive components - particularly metallic pipe components - in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). These models consider the progressive degradation of a component through a series of observable discrete states, such as detectable flaw, leak and rupture. Service data then generally provides the basis for estimating the state transition rates. Research in materials science is producing a growing understanding of the physical phenomena that govern the aging degradation of passive pipe components. As a result, there is an emerging opportunity to incorporate these insights into PRA. This paper describes research conducted under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Pathway of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. A state transition model is described that addresses aging behavior associated with stress corrosion cracking in ASME Class 1 dissimilar metal welds – a component type relevant to LOCA analysis. The state transition rate estimates are based on physics models of weld degradation rather than service data. The resultant model is found to be non-Markov in that the transition rates are time-inhomogeneous and stochastic. Numerical solutions to the model provide insight into the effect of aging on component reliability.

  12. Transient earth system model simulations as age-scale generators for paleo proxy data?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermann, A.; Stockhecke, M.; Friedrich, T.; Menviel, L.

    2015-12-01

    Generating age models for paleo proxy data can be extremely difficult. Oftentimes assumptions are made which are based on hypothetical relationships between climate and orbital forcings. Whether these relationships (expressed in terms of correlation models) are physically justified and whether they are stationary is testable using transient climate model simulations. Several standard methods to generate age models for paleo-proxy data are scrutinized here, such as orbital tuning and synchronization to benthic stacks. To overcome some of the fundamental weaknesses of these methods we propose to use transient paleo climate model simulations to derive dynamically and physically consistent age models for paleo-proxy data. We illustrate this suggestion using 1) millennial-scale climate variations during MIS 2) orbital-scale climate variability during the past ~800 ka Ad 1) A physically forced MIS3 global hindcast model simulation with an earth system model, designed to match the reconstructed North Atlantic SST variability, can be used to determine the relative timing of different climate and biogeochemical variables at various locations with respect to an initial absolute reference timescale (GICC05 in our case). Corresponding leads and lags are a result of the physical equations of the climate system - not of oversimplisitic statistical assumptions (such as wiggle matching). The key assumption for this approach is that global patterns of Dansgaard-Oeschger variability are caused by centennial to millennial-scale AMOC variability. Ad 2) A transient earth system model simulation of the past ~800 ka is forced with observed greenhouse gas variations (on EDC3), orbital and estimated ice-sheet forcing. Simulated rainfall variations over the Eastern Mediterranean are compared with hydroclimate reconstructions from Lake Van. The simulated rainfall agrees well with the hydroclimate reconstruction (on the MoSto27 timescale) for the first 200 ka. Following this we demonstrate

  13. Model-Based Safety Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joshi, Anjali; Heimdahl, Mats P. E.; Miller, Steven P.; Whalen, Mike W.

    2006-01-01

    System safety analysis techniques are well established and are used extensively during the design of safety-critical systems. Despite this, most of the techniques are highly subjective and dependent on the skill of the practitioner. Since these analyses are usually based on an informal system model, it is unlikely that they will be complete, consistent, and error free. In fact, the lack of precise models of the system architecture and its failure modes often forces the safety analysts to devote much of their effort to gathering architectural details about the system behavior from several sources and embedding this information in the safety artifacts such as the fault trees. This report describes Model-Based Safety Analysis, an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. By extending the system model with a fault model as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support can be provided for much of the safety analysis. We believe that by using a common model for both system and safety engineering and automating parts of the safety analysis, we can both reduce the cost and improve the quality of the safety analysis. Here we present our vision of model-based safety analysis and discuss the advantages and challenges in making this approach practical.

  14. Cyclostratigraphy for Chinese red clay sequences: Implications to changing previous age models and paleoclimate interpretations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anwar, T.; Kravchinsky, V. A.; Zhang, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Chinese Loess Plateau contains red clay sequence which has continuous alternation of sedimentary cycles with recurrent paleoclimatic fluctuations. Absence of abundant fossils and inability of radiometric dating method made magnetostratigraphy a leading method to build age model for the red clay. Here magnetostratigraphic age model in red clay sequence is tested using cyclostratigraphy as orbital parameters of Earth are known. Milankovitch periodicities recorded in magnetic susceptibility and grain size in the Shilou red clay section are investigated and previously found age of 11 Ma for this section is re-evaluated. Magnetostratigraphy dating based on only visual correlation could potentially lead to erroneous age model. In this study the correlation is executed through the iteration procedure until it is supported by cyclostratigraphy; i.e. Milankovitch cycles are resolved in the best possible manner. Our new approach provides an age of 5.2 Ma for the Shilou profile. Wavelet analysis reveals that a 400 kyr eccentricity cycle is well preserved and the existence of a 100 kyr eccentricity in the red clay sequence on the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau suggests that eccentricity plays a vital role in Pliocene climate evolution. Paleomonsoon evolution is reconstructed and divided into three intervals (5.2-4.5 Ma, 4.5-3.6 Ma and 3.6-2.58 Ma). The earliest stage indicates that summer and winter monsoon cycles may rapidly alter, whereas the middle stage reflects an intensification of winter monsoon and aridification in Asia, and the youngest stage is characterized by relatively intensified summer monsoon. This study demonstrates that cyclostratigraphy can greatly assist magnetostratigraphy in dating the red clay sequences, and implies that many published age models for the red clay sequences should likely be re-assessed where possible. An evaluation of the monsoon system and climate change in eastern Asia might prominently benefit from this approach.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of the age-structured malaria transmission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addawe, Joel M.; Lope, Jose Ernie C.

    2012-09-01

    We propose an age-structured malaria transmission model and perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission. We subdivide the human population into two: preschool humans (below 5 years) and the rest of the human population (above 5 years). We then consider two sets of baseline parameters, one for areas of high transmission and the other for areas of low transmission. We compute the sensitivity indices of the reproductive number and the endemic equilibrium point with respect to the two sets of baseline parameters. Our simulations reveal that in areas of either high or low transmission, the reproductive number is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito on the rest of the human population. For areas of low transmission, we find that the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito. For the rest of the human population it is most sensitive to the rate of acquiring temporary immunity. In areas of high transmission, the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans and the rest of the human population are both most sensitive to the birth rate of humans. This suggests that strategies that target the mosquito biting rate on pre-school humans and those that shortens the time in acquiring immunity can be successful in preventing the spread of malaria.

  16. Constraint Based Modeling Going Multicellular

    PubMed Central

    Martins Conde, Patricia do Rosario; Sauter, Thomas; Pfau, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Constraint based modeling has seen applications in many microorganisms. For example, there are now established methods to determine potential genetic modifications and external interventions to increase the efficiency of microbial strains in chemical production pipelines. In addition, multiple models of multicellular organisms have been created including plants and humans. While initially the focus here was on modeling individual cell types of the multicellular organism, this focus recently started to switch. Models of microbial communities, as well as multi-tissue models of higher organisms have been constructed. These models thereby can include different parts of a plant, like root, stem, or different tissue types in the same organ. Such models can elucidate details of the interplay between symbiotic organisms, as well as the concerted efforts of multiple tissues and can be applied to analyse the effects of drugs or mutations on a more systemic level. In this review we give an overview of the recent development of multi-tissue models using constraint based techniques and the methods employed when investigating these models. We further highlight advances in combining constraint based models with dynamic and regulatory information and give an overview of these types of hybrid or multi-level approaches. PMID:26904548

  17. Constraint Based Modeling Going Multicellular.

    PubMed

    Martins Conde, Patricia do Rosario; Sauter, Thomas; Pfau, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Constraint based modeling has seen applications in many microorganisms. For example, there are now established methods to determine potential genetic modifications and external interventions to increase the efficiency of microbial strains in chemical production pipelines. In addition, multiple models of multicellular organisms have been created including plants and humans. While initially the focus here was on modeling individual cell types of the multicellular organism, this focus recently started to switch. Models of microbial communities, as well as multi-tissue models of higher organisms have been constructed. These models thereby can include different parts of a plant, like root, stem, or different tissue types in the same organ. Such models can elucidate details of the interplay between symbiotic organisms, as well as the concerted efforts of multiple tissues and can be applied to analyse the effects of drugs or mutations on a more systemic level. In this review we give an overview of the recent development of multi-tissue models using constraint based techniques and the methods employed when investigating these models. We further highlight advances in combining constraint based models with dynamic and regulatory information and give an overview of these types of hybrid or multi-level approaches.

  18. Constraint Based Modeling Going Multicellular.

    PubMed

    Martins Conde, Patricia do Rosario; Sauter, Thomas; Pfau, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Constraint based modeling has seen applications in many microorganisms. For example, there are now established methods to determine potential genetic modifications and external interventions to increase the efficiency of microbial strains in chemical production pipelines. In addition, multiple models of multicellular organisms have been created including plants and humans. While initially the focus here was on modeling individual cell types of the multicellular organism, this focus recently started to switch. Models of microbial communities, as well as multi-tissue models of higher organisms have been constructed. These models thereby can include different parts of a plant, like root, stem, or different tissue types in the same organ. Such models can elucidate details of the interplay between symbiotic organisms, as well as the concerted efforts of multiple tissues and can be applied to analyse the effects of drugs or mutations on a more systemic level. In this review we give an overview of the recent development of multi-tissue models using constraint based techniques and the methods employed when investigating these models. We further highlight advances in combining constraint based models with dynamic and regulatory information and give an overview of these types of hybrid or multi-level approaches. PMID:26904548

  19. A Computational Model of Inferior Colliculus Responses to Amplitude Modulated Sounds in Young and Aged Rats

    PubMed Central

    Rabang, Cal F.; Parthasarathy, Aravindakshan; Venkataraman, Yamini; Fisher, Zachery L.; Gardner, Stephanie M.; Bartlett, Edward L.

    2012-01-01

    The inferior colliculus (IC) receives ascending excitatory and inhibitory inputs from multiple sources, but how these auditory inputs converge to generate IC spike patterns is poorly understood. Simulating patterns of in vivo spike train data from cellular and synaptic models creates a powerful framework to identify factors that contribute to changes in IC responses, such as those resulting in age-related loss of temporal processing. A conductance-based single neuron IC model was constructed, and its responses were compared to those observed during in vivo IC recordings in rats. IC spike patterns were evoked using amplitude-modulated tone or noise carriers at 20–40 dB above threshold and were classified as low-pass, band-pass, band-reject, all-pass, or complex based on their rate modulation transfer function tuning shape. Their temporal modulation transfer functions were also measured. These spike patterns provided experimental measures of rate, vector strength, and firing pattern for comparison with model outputs. Patterns of excitatory and inhibitory synaptic convergence to IC neurons were based on anatomical studies and generalized input tuning for modulation frequency. Responses of modeled ascending inputs were derived from experimental data from previous studies. Adapting and sustained IC intrinsic models were created, with adaptation created via calcium-activated potassium currents. Short-term synaptic plasticity was incorporated into the model in the form of synaptic depression, which was shown to have a substantial effect on the magnitude and time course of the IC response. The most commonly observed IC response sub-types were recreated and enabled dissociation of inherited response properties from those that were generated in IC. Furthermore, the model was used to make predictions about the consequences of reduction in inhibition for age-related loss of temporal processing due to a reduction in GABA seen anatomically with age. PMID:23129994

  20. Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease

    PubMed Central

    Potter, Paul K.; Bowl, Michael R.; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E.; Simon, Michelle M.; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V.; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E.; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H.; Foster, Russell G.; Jackson, Ian J.; Peirson, Stuart N.; Thakker, Rajesh V.; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M.; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D. M.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss. PMID:27534441

  1. Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease.

    PubMed

    Potter, Paul K; Bowl, Michael R; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E; Simon, Michelle M; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H; Foster, Russell G; Jackson, Ian J; Peirson, Stuart N; Thakker, Rajesh V; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D M

    2016-08-18

    Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss.

  2. Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease.

    PubMed

    Potter, Paul K; Bowl, Michael R; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E; Simon, Michelle M; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H; Foster, Russell G; Jackson, Ian J; Peirson, Stuart N; Thakker, Rajesh V; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D M

    2016-01-01

    Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss. PMID:27534441

  3. [Variation characteristics and mathematical model of humic substances in landfill leachates with different landfill ages].

    PubMed

    Huang, You-Fu; Xu, Xin-Ya; Fan, Liang-Xin; Fang, Yi-Min

    2014-07-01

    The influence of municipal landfill age on the characteristics of humic substances in leachate on the basis of investigating 12 different kinds of leachates from landfills in Fujian province is presented in this study. It was shown that the concentration and percentage of fulvic acid (FA) were obviously higher than those of humic acid (HA). As the landfill age increased, the concentrations of HA, FA and humic substances (HS) increased, moreover, the percentage of HA first increased and then decreased. While the percentages of FA and HS first increased and then fluctuated with the landfill age. The UV-Vis analytical results of HA and FA through E280, E300/E400 and E465/E665 revealed that HA had a relatively higher content of aromatic compounds and higher molecular weight than FA. The humification of FA had a tendency to increase as the landfill age increased, while HA had opposite result. The E300/E400 and E465/E665 of HA and FA fluctuated with increasing landfill age. A mathematical model simulating the concentration of humic substances varied with the landfill age was presented and demonstrated based on degradation kinetics. The simulated results were close to the measured values with a correlation coefficient R2 of 0.820, 0.932 and 0.946, respectively, indicating that the concentrations of HA, FA and HS could be accurately forecasted.

  4. The problem of calibration: A possible way to overcome the drawbacks of age models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goswami, B.; Heitzig, J.; Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    Constructing a meaningful age model from a set of radiocarbon age-depth measurements made on a palaeoclimatic archive is the crucial backbone of all proxy-based research carried out thereafter. Significant progress in the development of Monte Carlo based interpolation techniques and Bayesian methods has been made recently, targeting the uncertainties of radiocarbon dating, which then reflect meaningfully as time domain errors in the proxy vs. time relationship. However, one primary limitation of these approaches is the debatable assumption of Gaussianity of the errors in calibrated ages as calibration often results in highly irregular and non-trivial probability distributions of the age for every measurement. Here, we present a method that circumvents this limitation by focussing on the construction of the proxy vs. time relationship rather than emphasising on the estimation of an age-depth relation as the intermediary step. Our method is based on a simple analysis of the involved probabilistic uncertainties and the use of (preferably non-parametric) regression methods that give an estimate of the uncertainty of regression at every point as well. With the appropriate use of Bayes' Theorem we then provide a regression-based estimator for the proxy measurements and compute the respective distribution parameters (such as mean and variance) that quantify the uncertainties of the proxy in the time domain. We verify this method with the help of an artificial data set involving the accumulation history of a simulated core and noisy radiocarbon dating and proxy measurements made on it. To our best knowledge, this is the first method that manages to overcome the fundamental problem of irregular distributions induced by calibration of radiocarbon ages. We feel that this approach shall enable us to look at the problem of dating uncertainties in a new light and open up newer possibilities for studying not only speleothem proxies but, more generally, from other palaeoclimatic

  5. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a…

  6. Rule-based and information-integration category learning in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Maddox, W Todd; Pacheco, Jennifer; Reeves, Maia; Zhu, Bo; Schnyer, David M

    2010-08-01

    The basal ganglia and prefrontal cortex play critical roles in category learning. Both regions evidence age-related structural and functional declines. The current study examined rule-based and information-integration category learning in a group of older and younger adults. Rule-based learning is thought to involve explicit, frontally mediated processes, whereas information-integration is thought to involve implicit, striatally mediated processes. As a group, older adults showed rule-based and information-integration deficits. A series of models were applied that provided insights onto the type of strategy used to solve the task. Interestingly, when the analyses focused only on participants who used the task appropriate strategy in the final block of trials, the age-related rule-based deficit disappeared whereas the information-integration deficit remained. For this group of individuals, the final block information-integration deficit was due to less consistent application of the task appropriate strategy by older adults, and over the course of learning these older adults shifted from an explicit hypothesis-testing strategy to the task appropriate strategy later in learning. In addition, the use of the task appropriate strategy was associated with less interference and better inhibitory control for rule-based and information-information learning, whereas use of the task appropriate strategy was associated with greater working memory and better new verbal learning only for the rule-based task. These results suggest that normal aging impacts both forms of category learning and that there are some important similarities and differences in the explanatory locus of these deficits. The data also support a two-component model of information-integration category learning that includes a striatal component that mediated procedural-based learning, and a prefrontal cortical component that mediates the transition from hypothesis-testing to procedural-based strategies

  7. Effect of Mild Heating on Human Lens Epithelial Cells: A Possible Model of Lens Aging

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Keke; Zhu, Xiangjia; Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the effect of mild heating on lens epithelial cells and to explore its possibility as an in vitro model for lens aging. Human lens epithelial cells (LECs) were heated at 50 °C for a cellular lens aging study. Analysis of the head group order of lens membranes was performed using Laurdan labeling. Immunofluorescence was performed to detect changes in α-crystallin expression and its cellular distribution. The chaperone-like activity of α-crystallin was also assessed. After mild heating, α-crystallin in LECs showed a tendency towards accumulation around the nucleus. The membrane head group environment of lens epithelial cells became more fluid with increasing time of exposure to mild heating, as indicated by increased water penetration. Furthermore, the chaperone activity of α-crystallin decreased, and suggests a relatively lower protective effect on other functional proteins in LECs. Thus, compared to the mild heating model based on lens tissue, this cellular model could provide a more convenient and accurate method for studying lens aging in vitro, including changes in membrane head group order in each cell, the real-time observation of crystallin distribution, and the monitoring of functional changes in the chaperone activity of crystallins as a result of aging. PMID:27725687

  8. Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

    2013-01-01

    Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

  9. A method for estimating gestational age of fetal remains based on long bone lengths.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Cristiana; Curate, Francisco; Cunha, Eugénia

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of gestational age (GA) in fetal human remains is important in forensic settings, particularly to assess fetal viability, in addition to often being the only biological profile parameter that can be assessed with some accuracy for non-adults. The length of long bone diaphysis is one of the most frequently used methods for fetal age estimation. The main objective of this study was to present a simple and objective method for estimating GA based on the measurements of the diaphysis of the femur, tibia, fibula, humerus, ulna, and radius. Conventional least squares regression equations (classical and inverse calibration approaches) and quick reference tables were generated. A supplementary objective was to compare the performance of the new formulae against previously published models. The sample comprised 257 fetuses (136 females and 121 males) with known GA (between 12 and 40 weeks) and was selected based on clinical and pathological information. All measurements were performed on radiographic images acquired in anonymous clinical autopsy records from spontaneous and therapeutic abortions in two Portuguese hospitals. The proposed technique is straightforward and reproducible. The models for the GA estimation are exceedingly accurate and unbiased. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show that both perform exceptionally well, with high accuracy and low bias. Also, the newly developed equations generally outperform earlier methods of GA estimation in forensic contexts. Quick reference tables for each long bone are now available. The obtained models for the estimation of gestational age are of great applicability in forensic contexts. PMID:27251047

  10. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V. A.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-04-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a drawing-based model of the solar system. The results show that children in the target age group are capable of creating a drawing-based model of the solar system and can use it to show the situations in which eclipses occur. Structural equation modeling predicting post-test knowledge scores based on learners' pre-test knowledge scores, the quality of their drawings and motivational aspects yielded some evidence that such drawing contributes to learning. Consequences for using modeling with young children are considered.

  11. Model-based machine learning.

    PubMed

    Bishop, Christopher M

    2013-02-13

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications. PMID:23277612

  12. Model-based machine learning.

    PubMed

    Bishop, Christopher M

    2013-02-13

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications.

  13. Ages estimated from a diffusion equation model for scarp degradation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Watson, K.E.N.

    1983-01-01

    The diffusion equation derived from the continuity equation for hillslopes is applied to scarp erosion in unconsolidated materials. Solutions to this equation allow direct calculation of the product of the rate coefficient and the age of the scarp from measurements of scarp morphology. Where the rate coefficient can be estimated or can be derived from scarps of known age, this method allows direct calculation of unknown ages of scarps.

  14. Looking for disease being a model of human aging

    PubMed Central

    Hausmanowa-Petrusewicz, I; Madej-Pilarczyk, A

    2007-01-01

    Summary This paper is a part of an introduction to authors’ study on systemic laminopathies and their role in human aging. Of special interest is progeria – a type of systemic laminopathy associated usually with mutation 1824 C > T and presenting phenotype of preliminary aging. The authors analyse the differences between the progeria and other syndrome of preliminary aging – Werner’s syndrome. PMID:18421896

  15. Estimating Modifying Effect of Age on Genetic and Environmental Variance Components in Twin Models.

    PubMed

    He, Liang; Sillanpää, Mikko J; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko; Pitkäniemi, Janne

    2016-04-01

    Twin studies have been adopted for decades to disentangle the relative genetic and environmental contributions for a wide range of traits. However, heritability estimation based on the classical twin models does not take into account dynamic behavior of the variance components over age. Varying variance of the genetic component over age can imply the existence of gene-environment (G×E) interactions that general genome-wide association studies (GWAS) fail to capture, which may lead to the inconsistency of heritability estimates between twin design and GWAS. Existing parametricG×Einteraction models for twin studies are limited by assuming a linear or quadratic form of the variance curves with respect to a moderator that can, however, be overly restricted in reality. Here we propose spline-based approaches to explore the variance curves of the genetic and environmental components. We choose the additive genetic, common, and unique environmental variance components (ACE) model as the starting point. We treat the component variances as variance functions with respect to age modeled by B-splines or P-splines. We develop an empirical Bayes method to estimate the variance curves together with their confidence bands and provide an R package for public use. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately capture dynamic behavior of the component variances in terms of mean square errors with a data set of >10,000 twin pairs. Using the proposed methods as an alternative and major extension to the classical twin models, our analyses with a large-scale Finnish twin data set (19,510 MZ twins and 27,312 DZ same-sex twins) discover that the variances of the A, C, and E components for body mass index (BMI) change substantially across life span in different patterns and the heritability of BMI drops to ∼50% after middle age. The results further indicate that the decline of heritability is due to increasing unique environmental variance, which provides more

  16. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a simplified electrochemical and thermal model for Li-ion batteries aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edouard, C.; Petit, M.; Forgez, C.; Bernard, J.; Revel, R.

    2016-09-01

    In this work, a simplified electrochemical and thermal model that can predict both physicochemical and aging behavior of Li-ion batteries is studied. A sensitivity analysis of all its physical parameters is performed in order to find out their influence on the model output based on simulations under various conditions. The results gave hints on whether a parameter needs particular attention when measured or identified and on the conditions (e.g. temperature, discharge rate) under which it is the most sensitive. A specific simulation profile is designed for parameters involved in aging equations in order to determine their sensitivity. Finally, a step-wise method is followed to limit the influence of parameter values when identifying some of them, according to their relative sensitivity from the study. This sensitivity analysis and the subsequent step-wise identification method show very good results, such as a better fitting of the simulated cell voltage with experimental data.

  17. The CITRA Research-Practice Consensus-Workshop Model: Exploring a New Method of Research Translation in Aging

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sabir, Myra; Breckman, Risa; Meador, Rhoda; Wethington, Elaine; Reid, Carrington; Pillemer, Karl

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: On the basis of the experience of an extensive community-based research partnership in New York City, we developed an innovative process for bridging the gap between aging-related research and practice, using a consensus-workshop model. Design and Methods: We adapted the traditional scientific consensus-workshop model to include…

  18. U.S. Telecommunications and Trade Policies: The Need for an Effective Information Age Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tirman, W. Robert

    This paper examines the need for telecommunications and international trade policies in the Information Age and presents a model for developing such policies. The first of seven sections discusses the need for an Information Age Model, and the technological changes that are giving rise to increasingly integrated Information Age networks are…

  19. Preparing the Workforce for Healthy Aging Programs: The Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP) Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frank, Janet C.; Altpeter, Mary; Damron-Rodriguez, JoAnn; Driggers, Joann; Lachenmayr, Susan; Manning, Colleen; Martinez, Dana M.; Price, Rachel M.; Robinson, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Current public health and aging service agency personnel have little training in gerontology, and virtually no training in evidence-based health promotion and disease management programs for older adults. These programs are rapidly becoming the future of our community-based long-term care support system. The purpose of this project was to develop…

  20. Cardiac autonomic changes in middle-aged women: identification based on principal component analysis.

    PubMed

    Trevizani, Gabriela A; Nasario-Junior, Olivassé; Benchimol-Barbosa, Paulo R; Silva, Lilian P; Nadal, Jurandir

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the application of the principal component analysis (PCA) technique on power spectral density function (PSD) of consecutive normal RR intervals (iRR) aiming at assessing its ability to discriminate healthy women according to age groups: young group (20-25 year-old) and middle-aged group (40-60 year-old). Thirty healthy and non-smoking female volunteers were investigated (13 young [mean ± SD (median): 22·8 ± 0·9 years (23·0)] and 17 Middle-aged [51·7 ± 5·3 years (50·0)]). The iRR sequence was collected during ten minutes, breathing spontaneously, in supine position and in the morning, using a heart rate monitor. After selecting an iRR segment (5 min) with the smallest variance, an auto regressive model was used to estimate the PSD. Five principal component coefficients, extracted from PSD signals, were retained for analysis according to the Mahalanobis distance classifier. A threshold established by logistic regression allowed the separation of the groups with 100% specificity, 83·2% sensitivity and 93·3% total accuracy. The PCA appropriately classified two groups of women in relation to age (young and Middle-aged) based on PSD analysis of consecutive normal RR intervals.

  1. Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Worthey, Guy

    1994-01-01

    The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors

  2. Continuous Age-Structured Model for Bovine Tuberculosis in African buffalo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anguelov, R.; Kojouharov, H.

    2009-10-01

    The paper deals with a model of the spread of bovine tuberculosis in the buffalo population in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. The model uses continuous age structure and it is formulated in terms of partial differential equations using eight epidemiological classes (compartments). More precisely, the age density for each class at time t satisfies a one way wave equation, where the age is the space variable. The continuous age model discussed here is derived from a 2006 age groups model by P. C. Cross and W. M. Getz.

  3. A statistical model for the study of U-Nb aging (u)

    SciTech Connect

    Hemphill, Geralyn M; Hackenberg, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    This study was undertaken to model the aging response of U-Nb alloys in order to quantify property and lifetime predictions and uncertainties, in response to concerns that aging during long-term stockpile storage may change the microstructure and properties of U-6 wt%Nb alloy components in ways adversely affecting performance. U-6Nb has many desirable properties, but is a complex material because of its gross compositional inhomogeneity (its chemical banding spans 4-8 wt%), its metastable starting microstructure, and the fact that a variety of external factors such as temperature, stress, and gaseous species can cause aging through multiple mechanisms. The most significant aging mechanism identified in earlier studies [2007hac2] is age hardening, phenomenologically defined as increasing hardness and strength and decreasing ductility observed as a function of increasing aging time-at-temperature. The scientific fundamentals of age hardening at temperatures relevant to U-6Nb material processing ({le}200 C) and stockpile storage ({le}60 C) remain unresolved in spite of significant experimental efforts [2007hac2, 2009cla]. Equally problematic is the lack of a well-established U-6Nb component failure criterion. These limitations make the most desirable approach of property response and lifetime prediction - that based on fundamental physics - unattainable at the present time. Therefore, a semi-empirical approach was taken to model the phenomenological property evolution during aging. This enabled lifetime estimates to be made from an assumed failure criterion (derived from a manufacturing acceptance criterion) couched in terms of an age-sensitive property, namely quasi-static tensile elongation to failure. The predictions of this and other age-sensitive properties are also useful for U-6Nb component surveillance studies. Drawing upon a large body of artificial aging data obtained from nonbanded (chemically homogeneous) U-5.6Nb and U-7.7Nb material [2007hacJ ] over 100

  4. Development of a distance-based interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes.

    PubMed

    Axe, M J; Snyder-Mackler, L; Konin, J G; Strube, M J

    1996-01-01

    We developed a distance-based interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes (9 to 12 years) to be used in training and rehabilitation. The timing and repetition parameters were developed from data collected during 400 innings of organized baseball during a single season, and short toss distance from Little League rules for field dimensions. There were 1022 boys from organized baseball teams in the four studies. Maximal distance and speed measurements were recorded for 853 boys. We developed a mathematical model from these data to predict maximal throwing distance from maximal throwing speed. This model was then tested on a second sample of 114 players. We compared the predicted distance with the actual maximal throwing distance; the correlation coefficient was 0.92. Forty players aged 9 to 12 participated in a study to assess degradation of speed and distance. The average variability of the speed was small (< 5 mph), but the variability in distance was large (22.4 feet). Fifteen boys then threw the entire throwing program as designed. These results show that healthy young athletes can be expected to be able to throw the predicted value of this practical progressive interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes. The appropriate program can be assigned from age and known preinjury pitch speed.

  5. Generative FDG-PET and MRI model of aging and disease progression in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Dukart, Juergen; Kherif, Ferath; Mueller, Karsten; Adaszewski, Stanislaw; Schroeter, Matthias L; Frackowiak, Richard S J; Draganski, Bogdan

    2013-04-01

    The failure of current strategies to provide an explanation for controversial findings on the pattern of pathophysiological changes in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) motivates the necessity to develop new integrative approaches based on multi-modal neuroimaging data that captures various aspects of disease pathology. Previous studies using [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) report controversial results about time-line, spatial extent and magnitude of glucose hypometabolism and atrophy in AD that depend on clinical and demographic characteristics of the studied populations. Here, we provide and validate at a group level a generative anatomical model of glucose hypo-metabolism and atrophy progression in AD based on FDG-PET and sMRI data of 80 patients and 79 healthy controls to describe expected age and symptom severity related changes in AD relative to a baseline provided by healthy aging. We demonstrate a high level of anatomical accuracy for both modalities yielding strongly age- and symptom-severity- dependant glucose hypometabolism in temporal, parietal and precuneal regions and a more extensive network of atrophy in hippocampal, temporal, parietal, occipital and posterior caudate regions. The model suggests greater and more consistent changes in FDG-PET compared to sMRI at earlier and the inversion of this pattern at more advanced AD stages. Our model describes, integrates and predicts characteristic patterns of AD related pathology, uncontaminated by normal age effects, derived from multi-modal data. It further provides an integrative explanation for findings suggesting a dissociation between early- and late-onset AD. The generative model offers a basis for further development of individualized biomarkers allowing accurate early diagnosis and treatment evaluation.

  6. Sketch-based geologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rood, M. P.; Jackson, M.; Hampson, G.; Brazil, E. V.; de Carvalho, F.; Coda, C.; Sousa, M. C.; Zhang, Z.; Geiger, S.

    2015-12-01

    Two-dimensional (2D) maps and cross-sections, and 3D conceptual models, are fundamental tools for understanding, communicating and modeling geology. Yet geologists lack dedicated and intuitive tools that allow rapid creation of such figures and models. Standard drawing packages produce only 2D figures that are not suitable for quantitative analysis. Geologic modeling packages can produce 3D models and are widely used in the groundwater and petroleum communities, but are often slow and non-intuitive to use, requiring the creation of a grid early in the modeling workflow and the use of geostatistical methods to populate the grid blocks with geologic information. We present an alternative approach to rapidly create figures and models using sketch-based interface and modelling (SBIM). We leverage methods widely adopted in other industries to prototype complex geometries and designs. The SBIM tool contains built-in geologic rules that constrain how sketched lines and surfaces interact. These rules are based on the logic of superposition and cross-cutting relationships that follow from rock-forming processes, including deposition, deformation, intrusion and modification by diagenesis or metamorphism. The approach allows rapid creation of multiple, geologically realistic, figures and models in 2D and 3D using a simple, intuitive interface. The user can sketch in plan- or cross-section view. Geologic rules are used to extrapolate sketched lines in real time to create 3D surfaces. Quantitative analysis can be carried our directly on the models. Alternatively, they can be output as simple figures or imported directly into other modeling tools. The software runs on a tablet PC and can be used in a variety of settings including the office, classroom and field. The speed and ease of use of SBIM enables multiple interpretations to be developed from limited data, uncertainty to be readily appraised, and figures and models to be rapidly updated to incorporate new data or concepts.

  7. 20 CFR 416.806 - Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age. 416.806 Section 416.806 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... based on documentary evidence of age. Where documentary evidence of age recorded at least 3 years...

  8. Early-age hydration and volume change of calcium sulfoaluminate cement-based binders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaunsali, Piyush

    Shrinkage cracking is a predominant deterioration mechanism in structures with high surface-to-volume ratio. One way to allay shrinkage-induced stresses is to use calcium sulfoaluminate (CSA) cement whose early-age expansion in restrained condition induces compressive stress that can be utilized to counter the tensile stresses due to shrinkage. In addition to enhancing the resistance against shrinkage cracking, CSA cement also has lower carbon footprint than that of Portland cement. This dissertation aims at improving the understanding of early-age volume change of CSA cement-based binders. For the first time, interaction between mineral admixtures (Class F fly ash, Class C fly ash, and silica fume) and OPC-CSA binder was studied. Various physico-chemical factors such as the hydration of ye'elimite (main component in CSA cement), amount of ettringite (the main phase responsible for expansion in CSA cement), supersaturation with respect to ettringite in cement pore solution, total pore volume, and material stiffness were monitored to examine early-age expansion characteristics. This research validated the crystallization stress theory by showing the presence of higher supersaturation level of ettringite, and therefore, higher crystallization stress in CSA cement-based binders. Supersaturation with respect to ettringite was found to increase with CSA dosage and external supply of gypsum. Mineral admixtures (MA) altered the expansion characteristics in OPC-CSA-MA binders with fixed CSA cement. This study reports that fly ash (FA) behaves differently depending on its phase composition. The Class C FA-based binder (OPC-CSA-CFA) ceased expanding beyond two days unlike other OPC-CSA-MA binders. Three factors were found to govern expansion of CSA cement-based binders: 1) volume fraction of ettringite in given pore volume, 2) saturation level of ettringite, and 3) dynamic modulus. Various models were utilized to estimate the macroscopic tensile stress in CSA cement-based

  9. Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

    PubMed

    Wikan, Arild

    2012-06-01

    Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities. PMID:22297621

  10. Characterizing cognitive aging of associative memory in animal models

    PubMed Central

    Engle, James R.; Barnes, Carol A.

    2012-01-01

    An overview is provided of the simple single-cue delay and trace eyeblink conditioning paradigms as techniques to assess associative learning and memory in the aged. We highlight and focus this review on the optimization of the parameter space of eyeblink conditioning designs in the aged to avoid and control for potential confounds that may arise when studying aged mammals. The need to examine the contribution of non-associative factors that can contribute to performance outcomes is emphasized, and how age-related changes in the central nervous system as well as peripheral sensory factors can potentially bias the interpretation of the data in the aged is discussed. The way in which slight alterations of the parameter space in the delay and trace eyeblink conditioning paradigms can lead to delayed but intact conditioning, rather than impaired performance in aged animals is also discussed. Overall, the eyeblink conditioning paradigm, when optimized for the age of the animal in the study, is an elegantly simple technique for assessment of associative learning and memory. When design caveats described above are taken into account, this important type of memory, with its well-defined neural substrates, should definitely be included in cognitive assessment batteries for the aged. PMID:22988435

  11. The Effects of Topography on Shortwave solar radiation modelling: The JGrass-NewAge System way

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abera, Wuletawu; Formetta, Giuseppe; Rigon, Riccardo

    2013-04-01

    The NewAGE-SwRB and NewAGE-DEC-MOD's are the two components of JGrass-NewAge hydrological modeling system to estimate the shortwave incident radiation. Shortwave solar radiation at the land surface is influenced by topographic parameters such as slope, aspect, altitude, and skyview factor, hence, detail analyses and discussions on their effect is the way to improve the modeling approach. The NewAGE-SwRB accounts for slope, aspect, shadow and the topographical information of the sites to estimate the cloudless irradiance. The first part of the paper is on the topographic parameter analysis using Udig GIS spatial toolbox, which is integrated in JGrass-NewAge system, and indicates the effect of each topographic parameters on the shortwave radiation. A statistical study on station topographic geometry (slope, aspect, altitude and Sky-view factor) and correlation of pairs of measurements of station analyzed to get closer look at the impact of rugged topography. The jackknife correlation coefficients has been used to analyze the estimate bias between shortwave radiations in different topographic geometric position, thereby helping to develop generalized linear models to explain the impacts of those topographic features. In addition to the NewAGE-SwRB accounts for the topographical parameters, there are three (an estimation of the visibility extent(V), the single-scattering albedo fraction of incident energy scattered to total attenuation by aerosols (Wo), and fraction of forward scattering to total scattering (Fs )) parameter needed to run the NewAGE-DEC-MOD's component. Sufficient knowledge regarding the magnitude and spatial distribution of the these parameters are very crucial. In this paper, the particle swarm NewAge component of the NewAge System used for automatic calibration of NewAGE-DEC-MOD's parameters for each stations based on different optimization and objective functions. Finally, the estimated parameters for all measurements station are interpolated in

  12. Towards the modelling of ageing and atherosclerosis effects in ApoE(-/-) mice aortic tissue.

    PubMed

    Waffenschmidt, Tobias; Cilla, Myriam; Sáez, Pablo; Pérez, Marta M; Martínez, Miguel A; Menzel, Andreas; Peña, Estefanía

    2016-08-16

    The goal of this work consists in a quantitative analysis and constitutive modelling of ageing processes associated to plaque formation in mice arteries. Reliable information on the characteristic evolution of pressure-stretch curves due to the ageing effects is extracted from previous inflation test experiments. Furthermore, characteristic age-dependent material parameters are identified on the basis of a continuum-mechanics-based parameter optimisation technique. The results indicate that the aorta-stiffness of the healthy control mice remains basically constant irrespective of the diet-time and age. In contrast, significant differences exist within the material response and in consequence within the material parameters between the ApoE(-/-) and the control mice as well as for the different locations over the aorta which is underlined by our experimental observations. With regard to the temporal evolution of the material parameters, we observe that the material parameters for the ApoE(-/-) mice aortas exhibit a saturation-type increase with respect to age. PMID:26924660

  13. Towards the modelling of ageing and atherosclerosis effects in ApoE(-/-) mice aortic tissue.

    PubMed

    Waffenschmidt, Tobias; Cilla, Myriam; Sáez, Pablo; Pérez, Marta M; Martínez, Miguel A; Menzel, Andreas; Peña, Estefanía

    2016-08-16

    The goal of this work consists in a quantitative analysis and constitutive modelling of ageing processes associated to plaque formation in mice arteries. Reliable information on the characteristic evolution of pressure-stretch curves due to the ageing effects is extracted from previous inflation test experiments. Furthermore, characteristic age-dependent material parameters are identified on the basis of a continuum-mechanics-based parameter optimisation technique. The results indicate that the aorta-stiffness of the healthy control mice remains basically constant irrespective of the diet-time and age. In contrast, significant differences exist within the material response and in consequence within the material parameters between the ApoE(-/-) and the control mice as well as for the different locations over the aorta which is underlined by our experimental observations. With regard to the temporal evolution of the material parameters, we observe that the material parameters for the ApoE(-/-) mice aortas exhibit a saturation-type increase with respect to age.

  14. Estimating the color of maxillary central incisors based on age and gender

    PubMed Central

    Gozalo-Diaz, David; Johnston, William M.; Wee, Alvin G.

    2008-01-01

    Statement of problem There is no scientific information regarding the selection of the color of teeth for edentulous patients. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate linear regression models that may be used to predict color parameters for central incisors of edentulous patients based on some characteristics of dentate subjects. Material and methods A spectroradiometer and an external light source were set in a noncontacting 45/0 degree (45-degree illumination and 0-degree observer) optical configuration to measure the color of subjects’ vital craniofacial structures (maxillary central incisor, attached gingiva, and facial skin). The subjects (n=120) were stratified into 5 age groups with 4 racial groups and balanced for gender. Linear first-order regression was used to determine the significant factors (α=.05) in the prediction model for each color direction of the color of the maxillary central incisor. Age, gender, and color of the other craniofacial structures were studied as potential predictors. Final predictions in each color direction were based only on the statistically significant factors, and then the color differences between observed and predicted CIELAB values for the central incisors were calculated and summarized. Results The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 36% of the total variability in L*. The statistically significant predictor of age accounted for 16% of the total variability in a*. The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 21% of the variability in b*. The mean ΔE (SD) between predicted and observed CIELAB values for the central incisor was 5.8 (3.2). Conclusions Age and gender were found to be statistically significant determinants in predicting the natural color of central incisors. Although the precision of these predictions was less than the median color difference found for all pairs of teeth studied, and may be considered an acceptable precision, further

  15. Chronic kidney disease: a clinical model of premature aging.

    PubMed

    Stenvinkel, Peter; Larsson, Tobias E

    2013-08-01

    Premature aging is a process associated with a progressive accumulation of deleterious changes over time, an impairment of physiologic functions, and an increase in the risk of disease and death. Regardless of genetic background, aging can be accelerated by the lifestyle choices and environmental conditions to which our genes are exposed. Chronic kidney disease is a common condition that promotes cellular senescence and premature aging through toxic alterations in the internal milieu. This occurs through several mechanisms, including DNA and mitochondria damage, increased reactive oxygen species generation, persistent inflammation, stem cell exhaustion, phosphate toxicity, decreased klotho expression, and telomere attrition. Because recent evidence suggests that both increased local signaling of growth factors (through the nutrient-sensing mammalian target of rapamycin) and decreased klotho expression are important modulators of aging, interventions that target these should be tested in this prematurely aged population.

  16. Lattice parameter variations during aging in nickel-base superalloys

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nathal, M. V.; Mackay, R. A.; Garlick, R. G.

    1988-01-01

    The importance of the state of coherency on measurements of gamma/gamma-prime lattice mismatch has been experimentally demonstrated during aging at 1000 C of specimens of an alloy with composition Ni-(8.6)Cr-(5.3)Al-(10.1)Co-(11.7)W-(1.2)Ti-(0.7)Mo (wt pct). Lattice parameter measurements are given as a function of aging time, and the corresponding sample microstructures are presented. The results show that changes of the two phases during aging did not influence the lattice parameter measurements, indicating that aging specimens to produce a semicoherent gamma/gamma-prime structure provides a good approximation of the true, unconstrained lattice mismatch.

  17. Models for preclinical studies in aging-related disorders: One is not for all

    PubMed Central

    Santulli, Gaetano; Borras, Consuelo; Bousquet, Jean; Calzà, Laura; Cano, Antonio; Illario, Maddalena; Franceschi, Claudio; Liotta, Giuseppe; Maggio, Marcello; Molloy, William D.; Montuori, Nunzia; O’Caoimh, Rónán; Orfila, Francesc; Rauter, Amelia P.; Santoro, Aurelia; Iaccarino, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Preclinical studies are essentially based on animal models of a particular disease. The primary purpose of preclinical efficacy studies is to support generalization of treatment–effect relationships to human subjects. Researchers aim to demonstrate a causal relationship between an investigational agent and a disease-related phenotype in such models. Numerous factors can muddle reliable inferences about such cause-effect relationships, including biased outcome assessment due to experimenter expectations. For instance, responses in a particular inbred mouse might be specific to the strain, limiting generalizability. Selecting well-justified and widely acknowledged model systems represents the best start in designing preclinical studies, especially to overcome any potential bias related to the model itself. This is particularly true in the research that focuses on aging, which carries unique challenges, mainly attributable to the fact that our already long lifespan makes designing experiments that use people as subjects extremely difficult and largely impractical. PMID:27042427

  18. Urban groundwater age modeling under unconfined condition - Impact of underground structures on groundwater age: Evidence of a piston effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, underground structures are shown to have a major influence on the groundwater mean age distribution described as a dispersive piston effect. Urban underground development does not occur without impacts on subsoil resources. In particular, groundwater resources can be vulnerable and generate disturbances when this space is exploited. Groundwater age spatial distribution data are fundamental for resource management as it can provide operational sustainability indicators. However, the application of groundwater age modeling is neglected regarding the potential effect of underground structures in urban areas. A three dimensional modeling approach was conducted to quantify the impact of two underground structures: (1) an impervious structure and (2) a draining structure. Both structures are shown to cause significant mixing processes occurring between shallow and deeper aquifers. The design technique used for draining structures is shown to have the greatest impact, generating a decrease in mean age of more than 80% under the structure. Groundwater age modeling is shown to be relevant for highlighting the role played by underground structures in advective-dispersive flows in urban areas.

  19. A comparison between voxel-based cortical thickness and voxel-based morphometry in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Hutton, Chloe; Draganski, Bogdan; Ashburner, John; Weiskopf, Nikolaus

    2009-11-01

    The morphology of cortical grey matter is commonly assessed using T1-weighted MRI together with automated computerised methods such as voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and cortical thickness measures. In the presented study we investigate how grey matter changes identified using voxel-based cortical thickness (VBCT) measures compare with local grey matter volume changes identified using VBM. We use data from a healthy aging population to perform the comparison, focusing on brain regions where age-related changes have been observed in previous studies. Our results show that overall, in healthy aging, VBCT and VBM yield very consistent results but VBCT provides a more sensitive measure of age-associated decline in grey matter compared with VBM. Our findings suggest that while VBCT selectively investigates cortical thickness, VBM provides a mixed measure of grey matter including cortical surface area or cortical folding, as well as cortical thickness. We therefore propose that used together, these techniques can separate the underlying grey matter changes, highlighting the utility of combining these complementary methods. PMID:19559801

  20. A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McMahon, P.B.; Plummer, L.N.; Böhlke, J.K.; Shapiro, S.D.; Hinkle, S.R.

    2011-01-01

    An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

  1. A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, P. B.; Plummer, L. N.; Böhlke, J. K.; Shapiro, S. D.; Hinkle, S. R.

    2011-06-01

    An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

  2. Autophagy drives epidermal deterioration in a Drosophila model of tissue aging.

    PubMed

    Scherfer, Christoph; Han, Violet C; Wang, Yan; Anderson, Aimee E; Galko, Michael J

    2013-04-01

    Organismal lifespan has been the primary readout in aging research. However, how longevity genes control tissue-specific aging remains an open question. To examine the crosstalk between longevity programs and specific tissues during aging, biomarkers of organ-specific aging are urgently needed. Since the earliest signs of aging occur in the skin, we sought to examine skin aging in a genetically tractable model. Here we introduce a Drosophila model of skin aging. The epidermis undergoes a dramatic morphological deterioration with age that includes membrane and nuclear loss. These changes were decelerated in a long-lived mutant and accelerated in a short-lived mutant. An increase in autophagy markers correlated with epidermal aging. Finally, the epidermis of Atg7 mutants retained younger characteristics, suggesting that autophagy is a critical driver of epidermal aging. This is surprising given that autophagy is generally viewed as protective during aging. Since Atg7 mutants are short-lived, the deceleration of epidermal aging in this mutant suggests that in the epidermis healthspan can be uncoupled from longevity. Because the aging readout we introduce here has an early onset and is easily visualized, genetic dissection using our model should identify other novel mechanisms by which lifespan genes feed into tissue-specific aging.

  3. A new age model for the early-middle Miocene in the North Alpine Foreland Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichenbacher, Bettina; Krijgsman, Wout; Pippèrr, Martina; Sant, Karin; Kirscher, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    The establishment of high-resolution age models for sedimentary successions is crucial for numerous research questions in the geosciences and related disciplines. Such models provide an absolute chronology that permits precise dating of depositional episodes and related processes such as mountain uplift or climate change. Recently, our work in the Miocene sediments of the North Alpine Foreland Basin (NAFB) has revealed a significantly younger age (16.6 Myr) for sediments that were thought to have been deposited 18 Myr ago. This implies that a fundamentally revised new age model is needed for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB (20 to 15-Myr). Our new data also indicate that previously published reconstructions of early-middle Miocene palaeogeography, sedimentation dynamics, mountain uplift and climate change in the NAFB all require a critical review and revision. Further, the time-span addressed is of special interest, since it encompasses the onset of a global warming phase. However, it appears that a fundamentally revised new age model for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB can only be achieved based on a 500 m deep drilling in the NAFB for which we currently seek collaboration partners to develop a grant application to the International Continental Deep Drilling Program (ICDP). Reference: Reichenbacher, B., W. Krijgsman, Y. Lataster, M. Pippèrr, C. G. C. Van Baak, L. Chang, D. Kälin, J. Jost, G. Doppler, D. Jung, J. Prieto, H. Abdul Aziz, M. Böhme, J. Garnish, U. Kirscher, and V. Bachtadse. 2013. A new magnetostratigraphic framework for the Lower Miocene (Burdigalian/Ottnangian, Karpatian) in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. Swiss Journal of Geosciences 106:309-334.

  4. Waist circumference and insulin resistance: a community based cross sectional study on reproductive aged Iranian women

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Although the positive relationship between insulin resistance (IR) and central obesity is well known, the direct relationship between waist circumference and IR is not clear yet and there is no consensus regarding the cut off value for waist circumference as a surrogate index for central obesity. The present study was aimed to determine the optimal cut-off value of waist circumference (WC) for predicting IR in reproductive aged Iranian women. Methods Using the stratified, multistage probability cluster sampling method 1036 women were randomly selected from among reproductive aged women of different geographic regions of Iran. Following implementation of exclusion criteria, complete data for 907 women remained for analysis. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR) and its cut off value was defined as the 95th percentile of HOMA-IR value for 129 subjects, without any metabolic abnormality. The optimal cut-off of WC in relation to HOMA-IR was calculated based on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis using the Youden index and the area under curve (AUC). Results The mean age of the total sample of 907 subjects was 34.4 ± 7.6 years (range, 18 - 45 years). After adjustment for age the odds ratios (OR) of elevated HOMA-IR were progressively higher with increasing levels of waist circumference; the age adjusted OR of IR for women with WC > 95 cm in comparison to those subjects with WC < 80 cm, was 9.5 (95% CI 5.6-16.1). The optimal cutoff value for WC predicting IR was 88.5 cm; with a sensitivity and specificity of 71% and 64%, respectively. Conclusions Waist circumference is directly related to insulin resistance and the optimal cut-off value for waist circumference reflecting insulin resistance is considered to be 88.5 cm for reproductive aged Iranian women. PMID:21831271

  5. Auditory sensitivity and the outer hair cell system in the CBA mouse model of age-related hearing loss.

    PubMed

    Frisina, Robert D; Zhu, Xiaoxia

    2010-06-01

    Age-related hearing loss is a highly prevalent sensory disorder, from both the clinical and animal model perspectives. Understanding of the neurophysiologic, structural, and molecular biologic bases of age-related hearing loss will facilitate development of biomedical therapeutic interventions to prevent, slow, or reverse its progression. Thus, increased understanding of relationships between aging of the cochlear (auditory portion of the inner ear) hair cell system and decline in overall hearing ability is necessary. The goal of the present investigation was to test the hypothesis that there would be correlations between physiologic measures of outer hair cell function (otoacoustic emission levels) and hearing sensitivity (auditory brainstem response thresholds), starting in middle age. For the CBA mouse, a useful animal model of age-related hearing loss, it was found that correlations between these two hearing measures occurred only for high sound frequencies in middle age. However, in old age, a correlation was observed across the entire mouse range of hearing. These findings have implications for improved early detection of progression of age-related hearing loss in middle-aged mammals, including mice and humans, and distinguishing peripheral etiologies from central auditory system decline.

  6. Designing a Programming-Based Approach for Modelling Scientific Phenomena

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Gordon; Hoyles, Celia; Noss, Richard

    2005-01-01

    We describe an iteratively designed sequence of activities involving the modelling of one-dimensional collisions between moving objects based on programming in ToonTalk. Students aged 13-14 years in two settings (London and Cyprus) investigated a number of collision situations, classified into six classes based on the relative velocities and…

  7. Predicting successful aging in a population-based sample of georgia centenarians.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; Macdonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C; Jazwinski, S Michal; Poon, Leonard W

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0-80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80-98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life. PMID:20885919

  8. Predicting successful aging in a population-based sample of georgia centenarians.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; Macdonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C; Jazwinski, S Michal; Poon, Leonard W

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0-80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80-98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life.

  9. Aging and Neurodegeneration: A Tangle of Models and Mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Chakrabarti, Sasanka; Mohanakumar, Kochupurackal P

    2016-03-01

    The research on aging and age-related diseases, especially the neurodegenerative diseases, is on the fast track. However, the results have so far not been translated to actual benefit for the patients in terms of treatment or diagnosis of age-related degenerative diseases including those of the CNS. As far as the prevention of the cognitive decline during non-pathological aging is concerned, there is nothing much to offer other than calorie restriction and physical exercise. Needless to say, the benefits are not up to our expectations. However, over the years at the experimental level it has been possible to identify several cellular and molecular mechanisms that are intricately associated with aging in general and neurodegenerative diseases in particular. These include oxidative stress and altered redox-signaling, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, proteotoxicity and altered gene expressions. These inter-dependent pathways mediate cellular senescence and often culminate in programmed cell death like apoptosis and autophagy, and in the context of brain these changes are manifested clinically as cognitive decline and pathologically as neurodegeneration. This special issue provides the readers with glimpses of this complex scenario from different angles primarily in the context of brain and also attempts to identify the potential drug targets against neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:27114843

  10. Aging and Neurodegeneration: A Tangle of Models and Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Chakrabarti, Sasanka; Mohanakumar, Kochupurackal P.

    2016-01-01

    The research on aging and age-related diseases, especially the neurodegenerative diseases, is on the fast track. However, the results have so far not been translated to actual benefit for the patients in terms of treatment or diagnosis of age-related degenerative diseases including those of the CNS. As far as the prevention of the cognitive decline during non-pathological aging is concerned, there is nothing much to offer other than calorie restriction and physical exercise. Needless to say, the benefits are not up to our expectations. However, over the years at the experimental level it has been possible to identify several cellular and molecular mechanisms that are intricately associated with aging in general and neurodegenerative diseases in particular. These include oxidative stress and altered redox-signaling, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, proteotoxicity and altered gene expressions. These inter-dependent pathways mediate cellular senescence and often culminate in programmed cell death like apoptosis and autophagy, and in the context of brain these changes are manifested clinically as cognitive decline and pathologically as neurodegeneration. This special issue provides the readers with glimpses of this complex scenario from different angles primarily in the context of brain and also attempts to identify the potential drug targets against neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:27114843

  11. Abnormal glutamate release in aged BTBR mouse model of autism.

    PubMed

    Wei, Hongen; Ding, Caiyun; Jin, Guorong; Yin, Haizhen; Liu, Jianrong; Hu, Fengyun

    2015-01-01

    Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by abnormal reciprocal social interactions, communication deficits, and repetitive behaviors with restricted interests. Most of the available research on autism is focused on children and young adults and little is known about the pathological alternation of autism in older adults. In order to investigate the neurobiological alternation of autism in old age stage, we compared the morphology and synaptic function of excitatory synapses between the BTBR mice with low level sociability and B6 mice with high level sociability. The results revealed that the number of excitatory synapse colocalized with pre- and post-synaptic marker was not different between aged BTBR and B6 mice. The aged BTBR mice had a normal structure of dendritic spine and the expression of Shank3 protein in the brain as well as that in B6 mice. The baseline and KCl-evoked glutamate release from the cortical synaptoneurosome in aged BTBR mice was lower than that in aged B6 mice. Overall, the data indicate that there is a link between disturbances of the glutamate transmission and autism. These findings provide new evidences for the hypothesis of excitation/inhibition imbalance in autism. Further work is required to determine the cause of this putative abnormality.

  12. Brain-Based Teaching in the Digital Age

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sprenger, Marilee

    2010-01-01

    In the digital age, your students have the ways, means, and speed to gather any information they want. But they need your guidance more than ever. Discover how digital technology is actually changing your students' brains. Learn why this creates new obstacles for teachers, but also opens up potential new pathways for learning. You will understand…

  13. Exceptional Brain Aging in a Rural Population-Based Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaye, Jeffrey; Michael, Yvonne; Calvert, James; Leahy, Marjorie; Crawford, Debbie; Kramer, Patricia

    2009-01-01

    Context: The 2000 US Census identified 50,454 Americans over the age of 100. Increased longevity is only of benefit if accompanied by maintenance of independence and quality of life. Little is known about the prevalence of dementia and other disabling conditions among rural centenarians although this information is important to clinicians caring…

  14. NMR and molecular modeling: application to wine ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saucier, C.; Pianet, I.; Laguerre, M.; Glories, Y.

    1998-02-01

    Red wine contains polyphenols called tannins which are very important for its taste and longevity. These polymers consist in repeating units of catechin and its epimer epicatechin. During ageing, slow condensation reactions take place which lead to new chemical structures. Among the possible reactions, we have focused our attention on acetaldehyde cross-linking. Catechin was used as a model for the production of polymers with acetaldehyde. Two reaction product fractions have been isolated by liquid chromatography. Mass measurement indicated that these fractions contain dimers. NMR (1D and 2D) and molecular modelling were then used to study the structure and conformations of these products. The first product consist in a pure dimer with the two catechin moieties connected with an ethyl bridge on the carbon 6 and 8. The second fraction was a mixture of two dimers (50/50). NMR measurements showed that it could be two symmetrical dimers involving the same carbon for each catechin moiety (6 or8). Le vin rouge contient des polyphénols appelés tanins qui sont très importants pour son goût et sa longévité. Il s'agit principalement de polymères de catéchine et d'épicatéchine. Durant le vieillissement du vin, des réactions de condensation interviennent lentement et conduisent à de nouvelles structures. Parmi les réactions possibles, nous avons plus spécialement étudié la polymérisation par pontage avec l'éthanal. La catéchine a été utilisée comme modèle de tannin et mise en présence d'éthanal en milieu acide proche du vin. Deux fractions de produits de réaction ont été isolées par chromatographie liquide. La spectrométrie de masse a révélé la présence de dimères. La RMN (1D et 2D) et la modélisation moléculaire ont ensuite été utilisées pour déterminer la structure et la conformation de ces produits. La première fraction a été identifiée comme étant un dimère de deux unités catéchines reliées par un pont éthyle par leur

  15. Ontology-based knowledge base model construction-OntoKBCF.

    PubMed

    Jing, Xia; Kay, Stephen; Hardiker, Nicholas; Marley, Tom

    2007-01-01

    Semantic web technologies are used in the construction of a bio-health knowledge base model, which, when coupled with an Electronic Health Record (EHR), is to be used by clinicians. Specifically, this ontology provides the basis for a domain knowledge resource that attempts to bridge biological and clinical information. The prototype is focused on a Cystic Fibrosis exemplar, and the content of the model includes: Cochrane reviews; a time-oriented description; gene therapy; and the most common cystic fibrosis gene mutations. The facts within the model range from nucleo-base mutation and amino acid change to clinical phenotype. The knowledge is represented by layers from the micro level to the macro level. Here, emphasis is placed upon the details between levels (i.e., the vertical axis) and these are made available to bridge the knowledge from different levels. The description of gender, age, mutation and clinical manifestations are clues for matching points within an EHR system. OWL is the ontology representation language used and the output from Protégé-OWL is a XML-based file format, which facilitates further application and communication.

  16. Thermal analysis of pentaerythritol tetranitrate and development of a powder aging model

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Geoffrey W; Sandstrom, Mary M; Giambra, Anna M; Archuleta, Jose G; Monroe, Deirde C

    2009-01-01

    We have applied a range of different physical and thermal analysis techniques to characterize the thermal evolution of the specific surface area of pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) powders. Using atomic force microscopy we have determined that the mass transfer mechanism leading to powder coarsening is probably sublimation and redeposition of PETN. Using thermogravimetric analysis we have measured vapor pressures of PETN powders whose aging will be simulated in future work. For one specific powder we have constructed an empirical model of the coarsening that is fit to specific surface area measurements at 60 C to 70 C to provide predictive capability of that powder's aging. Modulated differential scanning calorimetry and mass spectroscopy measurements highlight some of the thermal behavior of the powders and suggest that homologue-based eutectics and impurities are localized in the powder particles.

  17. Radiocarbon Based Ages and Growth Rates: Hawaiian Deep Sea Corals

    SciTech Connect

    Roark, E B; Guilderson, T P; Dunbar, R B; Ingram, B L

    2006-01-13

    The radial growth rates and ages of three different groups of Hawaiian deep-sea 'corals' were determined using radiocarbon measurements. Specimens of Corallium secundum, Gerardia sp., and Leiopathes glaberrima, were collected from 450 {+-} 40 m at the Makapuu deep-sea coral bed using a submersible (PISCES V). Specimens of Antipathes dichotoma were collected at 50 m off Lahaina, Maui. The primary source of carbon to the calcitic C. secundum skeleton is in situ dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Using bomb {sup 14}C time markers we calculate radial growth rates of {approx} 170 {micro}m y{sup -1} and ages of 68-75 years on specimens as tall as 28 cm of C. secundum. Gerardia sp., A. dichotoma, and L. glaberrima have proteinaceous skeletons and labile particulate organic carbon (POC) is their primary source of architectural carbon. Using {sup 14}C we calculate a radial growth rate of 15 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of 807 {+-} 30 years for a live collected Gerardia sp., showing that these organisms are extremely long lived. Inner and outer {sup 14}C measurements on four sub-fossil Gerardia spp. samples produce similar growth rate estimates (range 14-45 {micro}m y{sup -1}) and ages (range 450-2742 years) as observed for the live collected sample. Similarly, with a growth rate of < 10 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of {approx}2377 years, L. glaberrima at the Makapuu coral bed, is also extremely long lived. In contrast, the shallow-collected A. dichotoma samples yield growth rates ranging from 130 to 1,140 {micro}m y{sup -1}. These results show that Hawaiian deep-sea corals grow more slowly and are older than previously thought.

  18. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. PMID:26165657

  19. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models.

  20. Fourth-Order Method for Numerical Integration of Age- and Size-Structured Population Models

    SciTech Connect

    Iannelli, M; Kostova, T; Milner, F A

    2008-01-08

    In many applications of age- and size-structured population models, there is an interest in obtaining good approximations of total population numbers rather than of their densities. Therefore, it is reasonable in such cases to solve numerically not the PDE model equations themselves, but rather their integral equivalents. For this purpose quadrature formulae are used in place of the integrals. Because quadratures can be designed with any order of accuracy, one can obtain numerical approximations of the solutions with very fast convergence. In this article, we present a general framework and a specific example of a fourth-order method based on composite Newton-Cotes quadratures for a size-structured population model.

  1. Model-based tomographic reconstruction

    DOEpatents

    Chambers, David H.; Lehman, Sean K.; Goodman, Dennis M.

    2012-06-26

    A model-based approach to estimating wall positions for a building is developed and tested using simulated data. It borrows two techniques from geophysical inversion problems, layer stripping and stacking, and combines them with a model-based estimation algorithm that minimizes the mean-square error between the predicted signal and the data. The technique is designed to process multiple looks from an ultra wideband radar array. The processed signal is time-gated and each section processed to detect the presence of a wall and estimate its position, thickness, and material parameters. The floor plan of a building is determined by moving the array around the outside of the building. In this paper we describe how the stacking and layer stripping algorithms are combined and show the results from a simple numerical example of three parallel walls.

  2. Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Smit, Mikaela; Brinkman, Kees; Geerlings, Suzanne; Smit, Colette; Thyagarajan, Kalyani; Sighem, Ard van; de Wolf, Frank; Hallett, Timothy B

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future. Methods We constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs—including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies—and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030. Findings Our model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug–drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens. Interpretation The profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based

  3. Energy based hybrid turbulence modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haering, Sigfried; Moser, Robert

    2015-11-01

    Traditional hybrid approaches exhibit deficiencies when used for fluctuating smooth-wall separation and reattachment necessitating ad-hoc delaying functions and model tuning making them no longer useful as a predictive tool. Additionally, complex geometries and flows often require high cell aspect-ratios and large grid gradients as a compromise between resolution and cost. Such transitions and inconsistencies in resolution detrimentally effect the fidelity of the simulation. We present the continued development of a new hybrid RANS/LES modeling approach specifically developed to address these challenges. In general, modeled turbulence is returned to resolved scales by reduced or negative model viscosity until a balance between theoretical and actual modeled turbulent kinetic energy is attained provided the available resolution. Anisotropy in the grid and resolved field are directly integrated into this balance. A viscosity-based correction is proposed to account for resolution inhomogeneities. Both the hybrid framework and resolution gradient corrections are energy conserving through an exchange of resolved and modeled turbulence.

  4. Methodology for the Incorporation of Passive Component Aging Modeling into the RAVEN/ RELAP-7 Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Mandelli, Diego; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua; Alfonsi, Andrea; Askin Guler; Tunc Aldemir

    2014-11-01

    Passive system, structure and components (SSCs) will degrade over their operation life and this degradation may cause to reduction in the safety margins of a nuclear power plant. In traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using the event-tree/fault-tree methodology, passive SSC failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data and the true state of a specific plant is not reflected realistically. To address aging effects of passive SSCs in the traditional PRA methodology [1] does consider physics based models that account for the operating conditions in the plant, however, [1] does not include effects of surveillance/inspection. This paper represents an overall methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive components into the RAVEN/RELAP-7 environment which provides a framework for performing dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties (including those associated with maintenance activities) in a consistent phenomenological and probabilistic framework and is often needed when there is complex process/hardware/software/firmware/ human interaction [2]. Dynamic PRA has gained attention recently due to difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics based models and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems. RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control Environment) [3] is a software package under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as an online control logic driver and post-processing tool. It is coupled to the plant transient code RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) also currently under development at INL [3], as well as RELAP 5 [4]. The overall methodology aims to: • Address multiple aging mechanisms involving large number of components in a computational feasible manner where sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation

  5. Aging and Predicting Inferences: A Diffusion Model Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKoon, Gail; Ratcliff, Roger

    2013-01-01

    In the domain of discourse processing, it has been claimed that older adults (60-0-year-olds) are less likely to encode and remember some kinds of information from texts than young adults. The experiment described here shows that they do make a particular kind of inference to the same extent that college-age adults do. The inferences examined were…

  6. Modeling the mechanical behavior of vertebral trabecular bone: effects of age-related changes in microstructure.

    PubMed

    Silva, M J; Gibson, L J

    1997-08-01

    Age-related reductions in the thickness and number of trabeculae in vertebral trabecular bone have been documented by several workers, yet the relative effects of these changes on mechanical properties are not known. We developed a two-dimensional model of human vertebral trabecular bone and investigated its mechanical behavior using finite element analysis. The stress-strain behavior, failure mode, and strain distributions predicted using the model were consistent with those observed for vertebral trabecular bone under compressive loading. Random reductions in the number of trabeculae reduced the modulus and strength of the models two to five times more than uniform reductions in the thickness of trabeculae that caused the same loss of bone volume. For example, randomly removing longitudinal trabeculae to achieve a reduction in density of 10% reduced the strength by approximately 70%, whereas removing the same amount of bone by uniformly reducing the thickness of the longitudinal trabeculae only reduced the strength by approximately 20%. For a simulation of aged bone, in which the thickness and number of trabeculae were reduced concurrently, the strength was 23% of its intact ("young") value. When the bone mass of the aged model was restored to its intact level by increasing the thickness but not the number of trabeculae, the strength increased by 60%, but was still only 37% of its intact value. These combined findings, based on a two-dimensional, idealized model of vertebral trabecular bone, illustrate the importance of maintaining trabecular number and suggest that it may not be possible to restore bone strength following a period of advanced bone loss if a substantial number of trabeculae have been resorbed. Thus, until treatments exist that can increase trabecular number, the most effective treatment strategy is to prevent the degradation of bone strength by maintaining the number of trabeculae at a healthy level.

  7. A Kinetics Study on Electrical Resistivity Transition of In Situ Polymer Aging Sensors Based on Carbon-Black-Filled Epoxy Conductive Polymeric Composites (CPCs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Qizhen; Nyugen, Mark T.; Moon, Kyoung-Sik; Watkins, Ken; Morato, Lilian T.; Wong, Ching Ping

    2013-06-01

    Sensors based on carbon-black-filled bisphenol A-type epoxy conductive polymeric composites (CPCs) have been prepared and applied to monitor thermal oxidation aging of polymeric materials. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) is applied to characterize weight loss of epoxy resin in the aging process. By using a mathematical model based on the Boltzmann equation, a relationship between the electrical resistivity of the sensors based on epoxy/carbon black composites and aging time is established, making it possible to monitor and estimate the aging status of polymeric components in situ based on a fast and convenient electrical resistance measurement.

  8. Modeling the Mechanical Consequences of Age-Related Trabecular Bone Loss by XFEM Simulation.

    PubMed

    Fan, Ruoxun; Gong, He; Zhang, Xianbin; Liu, Jun; Jia, Zhengbin; Zhu, Dong

    2016-01-01

    The elderly are more likely to suffer from fracture because of age-related trabecular bone loss. Different bone loss locations and patterns have different effects on bone mechanical properties. Extended finite element method (XFEM) can simulate fracture process and was suited to investigate the effects of bone loss on trabecular bone. Age-related bone loss is indicated by trabecular thinning and loss and may occur at low-strain locations or other random sites. Accordingly, several ideal normal and aged trabecular bone models were created based on different bone loss locations and patterns; then, fracture processes from crack initiation to complete failure of these models were observed by XFEM; finally, the effects of different locations and patterns on trabecular bone were compared. Results indicated that bone loss occurring at low-strain locations was more detrimental to trabecular bone than that occurring at other random sites; meanwhile, the decrease in bone strength caused by trabecular loss was higher than that caused by trabecular thinning, and the effects of vertical trabecular loss on mechanical properties were more severe than horizontal trabecular loss. This study provided a numerical method to simulate trabecular bone fracture and distinguished different effects of the possible occurrence of bone loss locations and patterns on trabecular bone. PMID:27403206

  9. Modeling the Mechanical Consequences of Age-Related Trabecular Bone Loss by XFEM Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Ruoxun; Zhang, Xianbin; Liu, Jun; Jia, Zhengbin; Zhu, Dong

    2016-01-01

    The elderly are more likely to suffer from fracture because of age-related trabecular bone loss. Different bone loss locations and patterns have different effects on bone mechanical properties. Extended finite element method (XFEM) can simulate fracture process and was suited to investigate the effects of bone loss on trabecular bone. Age-related bone loss is indicated by trabecular thinning and loss and may occur at low-strain locations or other random sites. Accordingly, several ideal normal and aged trabecular bone models were created based on different bone loss locations and patterns; then, fracture processes from crack initiation to complete failure of these models were observed by XFEM; finally, the effects of different locations and patterns on trabecular bone were compared. Results indicated that bone loss occurring at low-strain locations was more detrimental to trabecular bone than that occurring at other random sites; meanwhile, the decrease in bone strength caused by trabecular loss was higher than that caused by trabecular thinning, and the effects of vertical trabecular loss on mechanical properties were more severe than horizontal trabecular loss. This study provided a numerical method to simulate trabecular bone fracture and distinguished different effects of the possible occurrence of bone loss locations and patterns on trabecular bone. PMID:27403206

  10. Bias in the reporting of sex and age in biomedical research on mouse models

    PubMed Central

    Flórez-Vargas, Oscar; Brass, Andy; Karystianis, George; Bramhall, Michael; Stevens, Robert; Cruickshank, Sheena; Nenadic, Goran

    2016-01-01

    In animal-based biomedical research, both the sex and the age of the animals studied affect disease phenotypes by modifying their susceptibility, presentation and response to treatment. The accurate reporting of experimental methods and materials, including the sex and age of animals, is essential so that other researchers can build on the results of such studies. Here we use text mining to study 15,311 research papers in which mice were the focus of the study. We find that the percentage of papers reporting the sex and age of mice has increased over the past two decades: however, only about 50% of the papers published in 2014 reported these two variables. We also compared the quality of reporting in six preclinical research areas and found evidence for different levels of sex-bias in these areas: the strongest male-bias was observed in cardiovascular disease models and the strongest female-bias was found in infectious disease models. These results demonstrate the ability of text mining to contribute to the ongoing debate about the reproducibility of research, and confirm the need to continue efforts to improve the reporting of experimental methods and materials. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13615.001 PMID:26939790

  11. Rb-Sr age of a Luna 16 basalt and the model age of lunar soils.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papanastassiou, D. A.; Wasserburg, G. J.

    1972-01-01

    An internal isochron was determined on a small basalt fragment (sample B-1) returned from the Luna 16 mission, which yields an age of 3.42 plus or minus 0.8 b.y. and a low initial Sr87/Sr86 value. A comparison is made of the data from four lunar missions to mare sites which shows that the last period of major flooding of the mare basins is confined to a narrow time interval of only 0.55 b.y. The direct evidence of major lunar magmatic activity appears to be confined to the interval from 3.1 to 4.0 b.y. The Sr87/Sr86 values for all mare basalts are extremely primitive and lie in a rather narrow range. A diagram is given for initial Sr87/Sr86 as a function of time for all lunar rocks.

  12. Age at marriage in Malaysia: a hazard model of marriage timing.

    PubMed

    Anderson, K H; Hill, M A; Butler, J S

    1987-08-01

    "This paper estimates a proportional hazards model for the timing of age at marriage of women in Malaysia. We hypothesize that age at marriage responds significantly to differences in male and female occupations, race, and age. We find considerable empirical support for the relevance of economic variables in determining age at marriage as well as evidence of strong differences in marriage patterns across races." PMID:12280709

  13. Aging stem cells. A Werner syndrome stem cell model unveils heterochromatin alterations as a driver of human aging.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Weiqi; Li, Jingyi; Suzuki, Keiichiro; Qu, Jing; Wang, Ping; Zhou, Junzhi; Liu, Xiaomeng; Ren, Ruotong; Xu, Xiuling; Ocampo, Alejandro; Yuan, Tingting; Yang, Jiping; Li, Ying; Shi, Liang; Guan, Dee; Pan, Huize; Duan, Shunlei; Ding, Zhichao; Li, Mo; Yi, Fei; Bai, Ruijun; Wang, Yayu; Chen, Chang; Yang, Fuquan; Li, Xiaoyu; Wang, Zimei; Aizawa, Emi; Goebl, April; Soligalla, Rupa Devi; Reddy, Pradeep; Esteban, Concepcion Rodriguez; Tang, Fuchou; Liu, Guang-Hui; Belmonte, Juan Carlos Izpisua

    2015-06-01

    Werner syndrome (WS) is a premature aging disorder caused by WRN protein deficiency. Here, we report on the generation of a human WS model in human embryonic stem cells (ESCs). Differentiation of WRN-null ESCs to mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) recapitulates features of premature cellular aging, a global loss of H3K9me3, and changes in heterochromatin architecture. We show that WRN associates with heterochromatin proteins SUV39H1 and HP1α and nuclear lamina-heterochromatin anchoring protein LAP2β. Targeted knock-in of catalytically inactive SUV39H1 in wild-type MSCs recapitulates accelerated cellular senescence, resembling WRN-deficient MSCs. Moreover, decrease in WRN and heterochromatin marks are detected in MSCs from older individuals. Our observations uncover a role for WRN in maintaining heterochromatin stability and highlight heterochromatin disorganization as a potential determinant of human aging.

  14. Tritium-based age/streamflow relationships and catchment function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, M. K.; Morgenstern, U.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding runoff generation is important for management of freshwater systems. Determining transit time distributions (TTDs) of streamwaters and how they change with flow gives information on the flowpaths and water storages in catchments - fundamental for understanding the responses of streams to stressors such as pollution, land use change and climate change. This work uses tritium measurements on single samples to determine TTDs and how they change with flow. Such use of tritium is only practical so far in the Southern Hemisphere, because of its much-lower input of bomb-tritium in the 1960s. Another advantage of tritium is that it reveals the full spectrum of ages present in streams, whereas oxygen-18 or chloride variations only show younger ages (i.e. truncated TTDs). Case studies are presented for two New Zealand catchments, both with volcanic ash substrates. The first (Toenepi) is a dairy catchment near Hamilton, which shows well-constrained power law relationships between mean transit time (MTT) and flow, and between silica concentration and flow. Baseflow MTTs vary from 2.5 to 157 years. The second (Tutaeuaua) is a pastoral farming catchment near Taupo. Results for nested catchments along the stream also show power law relationships for both MTT and silica with flow. Baseflow MTTs vary from 1 to 11 years. Although the MTT data could be represented approximately by straight lines in log-log plots, hysteresis effects due to catchment wetness variations did disturb the relationships. Having TTDs from individual samples focusses attention on the nature of the water storages supplying the stream at the times of sampling. The flow record contains information on catchment function, which can enhance the value of the age data, provided such information can be satisfactorily interpreted. A new baseflow estimation method is used to determine the slow storage (aka groundwater) fraction in the stream. The age data is showing that slow storages have mean ages of

  15. All age-depth models are wrong, but are getting better

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trachsel, Mathias; Chipperfield, Joseph D.; Telford, Richard J.

    2015-04-01

    Construction of accurate age-depth relationships and realistic assessment of their uncertainties is one of the fundamental prerequisites for comparing and correlating Late Quaternary stratigraphic proxy records. Four widely used age-depth modelling routines: i) clam, ii) OxCal, iii) Bacon, and iv) Bchron were tested using radiocarbon dates simulated from varved sediment stratigraphies. All methods produced average age-depth models that were close to the true varve age, but the uncertainty estimation differed considerably among models. Age uncertainties were underestimated by clam, whereas age uncertainties produced by Bchron were too large. Using OxCal and Bacon, setting of model specific parameters influenced the estimated uncertainties, which varied from too large to too small. Still, compared to the study by Telford et al. (2004), the use of Bayesian age-depth models greatly improved on the assessment of uncertainties of age-depth models. Reference: Telford et al. (2004), All age-depth models are wrong: but how badly? Quaternary Science Reviews, 23,1-5.

  16. NMR based investigations of the effects of aging on the motional properties of cellular silicone foams

    SciTech Connect

    Maxwell, R S; Balazs, B

    2000-10-04

    The aging of polymeric composite materials, such as filled polydimethylsiloxane foams, through factors such as thermal and mechanical stresses, environment, radiation, and chemical attack can affect the length of time for which a given material can maintain its engineering performance. Iterative interactions and cumulative reactions may result in the material or device reaching a critical age where its properties fail unexpectedly and catastrophically. The mechanical property changes associated with multi-mechanism aging may be subtle, and may not necessarily change linearly as a function of time in service. Since such linear relationships are often used in lifetime predictions, there is a fundamental need to develop and employ spectroscopic methods to investigate the structural and motional changes that occur in these organic-inorganic materials as a result of aging in chemically, thermally, or radioactively harsh environments. We have used multinuclear nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to characterize aging signatures in a series of PDMS based composite materials. Unfortunately, {sup 13}C, {sup 29}Si, and {sup 1}H magic angle spinning NMR spectra remain unchanged with gamma radiation exposure up to 50Mrad. This suggests that the speciation related changes are small and occur at a frequency of less than approximately 1% of the monomer units. As a result, we have shifted focus and have employed relaxation studies to monitor changes in motional properties of the copolymer foams caused by irradiation. We have measured spin-lattice, spin-spin, and rotating frame spin-lattice relaxation times for PDMS model rubbers with variable cross link density and filler content, for M9760 foams irradiated from 0 to 50Mrad, and for dehydrated M9760 foams. Spin-lattice relaxation times, in general, are sensitive to fast molecular motions in the MHz frequency range. Spin-spin and rotating frame relaxation times, on the other hand, are sensitive to changes in slower motion

  17. Age, period, and cohort effects on maternal mortality: a linear logit model.

    PubMed

    Tu, E J; Chuang, J L

    1983-01-01

    This analysis was aimed at disentangling the age, period, and cohort effects on the decline in maternal mortality in the 1917-77 period in New York State. New York maternal mortality rates were consistentley lower than US rates from 191-56, but fell considerably more slowly than national rates since 1957. Cohort analysis can potentially provide separate measures of age, period, and cohort effects by use of linear ligit models. Comparison of various age-period-cohort linear logit models on the logits of maternal mortality rates indicated that period and age effects are the dominant influences on maternal mortality. Cohortship did not make a significant contribution after age and period were already in the model. Age parameter results suggest that the 20-24 year age group faces the lowest maternal mortality risk, and risk increases rapidly with age after age 30 years. The infuctuation in the residuals for the 40-44 year age group is slightly higher due to the stochastic variation in diminishing small numbers of maternal deaths and pregnancies in this group. In addition, adding the period dimension after adjustment for age had a greater impact than adding the cohort dimension after adjustment for age. The implication of these findings is that, as a set, changes in temporal variables that cut across cohorts seem to be more important than those variables that distinguish cohorts.

  18. Phospholipase A2 – nexus of aging, oxidative stress, neuronal excitability, and functional decline of the aging nervous system? Insights from a snail model system of neuronal aging and age-associated memory impairment

    PubMed Central

    Hermann, Petra M.; Watson, Shawn N.; Wildering, Willem C.

    2014-01-01

    The aging brain undergoes a range of changes varying from subtle structural and physiological changes causing only minor functional decline under healthy normal aging conditions, to severe cognitive or neurological impairment associated with extensive loss of neurons and circuits due to age-associated neurodegenerative disease conditions. Understanding how biological aging processes affect the brain and how they contribute to the onset and progress of age-associated neurodegenerative diseases is a core research goal in contemporary neuroscience. This review focuses on the idea that changes in intrinsic neuronal electrical excitability associated with (per)oxidation of membrane lipids and activation of phospholipase A2 (PLA2) enzymes are an important mechanism of learning and memory failure under normal aging conditions. Specifically, in the context of this special issue on the biology of cognitive aging we portray the opportunities offered by the identifiable neurons and behaviorally characterized neural circuits of the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis in neuronal aging research and recapitulate recent insights indicating a key role of lipid peroxidation-induced PLA2 as instruments of aging, oxidative stress and inflammation in age-associated neuronal and memory impairment in this model system. The findings are discussed in view of accumulating evidence suggesting involvement of analogous mechanisms in the etiology of age-associated dysfunction and disease of the human and mammalian brain. PMID:25538730

  19. Empowering Youth through a Responsibility-Based Cross-Age Teacher Program: An Investigation into Impact and Possibilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond-Diedrich, Krista C.; Walsh, David

    2006-01-01

    A Responsibility Model-based (RM) (Hellison, 2003) cross-age teaching program was developed to promote the leadership of a selected group of youth from underserved communities. The participants, called the "Urban Youth Leaders," were eight 11 to 15 year old boys who taught various physical activity skills to a group of 40 fourth graders for eight…

  20. Do the Instructors Differ in Their Behavioral Intention to Adopt E-Learning Based on Age, Gender, and Internet Experience?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Altawallbeh, Manal; Thiam, Wun; Alshourah, Sultan; Fong, Soon Fook

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this research is to examine if there are differences of the age, gender, and internet experience on behavioural intention to adopt e-learning of the instructors in Jordanian universities. The paper takes a social, and technical approach in its investigation by using a research model based on the ANOVA and t-test Analysis to identify if…

  1. Age-Related Changes in Predictive Capacity Versus Internal Model Adaptability: Electrophysiological Evidence that Individual Differences Outweigh Effects of Age.

    PubMed

    Bornkessel-Schlesewsky, Ina; Philipp, Markus; Alday, Phillip M; Kretzschmar, Franziska; Grewe, Tanja; Gumpert, Maike; Schumacher, Petra B; Schlesewsky, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Hierarchical predictive coding has been identified as a possible unifying principle of brain function, and recent work in cognitive neuroscience has examined how it may be affected by age-related changes. Using language comprehension as a test case, the present study aimed to dissociate age-related changes in prediction generation versus internal model adaptation following a prediction error. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were measured in a group of older adults (60-81 years; n = 40) as they read sentences of the form "The opposite of black is white/yellow/nice." Replicating previous work in young adults, results showed a target-related P300 for the expected antonym ("white"; an effect assumed to reflect a prediction match), and a graded N400 effect for the two incongruous conditions (i.e. a larger N400 amplitude for the incongruous continuation not related to the expected antonym, "nice," versus the incongruous associated condition, "yellow"). These effects were followed by a late positivity, again with a larger amplitude in the incongruous non-associated versus incongruous associated condition. Analyses using linear mixed-effects models showed that the target-related P300 effect and the N400 effect for the incongruous non-associated condition were both modulated by age, thus suggesting that age-related changes affect both prediction generation and model adaptation. However, effects of age were outweighed by the interindividual variability of ERP responses, as reflected in the high proportion of variance captured by the inclusion of by-condition random slopes for participants and items. We thus argue that - at both a neurophysiological and a functional level - the notion of general differences between language processing in young and older adults may only be of limited use, and that future research should seek to better understand the causes of interindividual variability in the ERP responses of older adults and its relation to cognitive performance. PMID

  2. Muscle wasting in myotonic dystrophies: a model of premature aging

    PubMed Central

    Mateos-Aierdi, Alba Judith; Goicoechea, Maria; Aiastui, Ana; Fernández-Torrón, Roberto; Garcia-Puga, Mikel; Matheu, Ander; López de Munain, Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1 or Steinert’s disease) and type 2 (DM2) are multisystem disorders of genetic origin. Progressive muscular weakness, atrophy and myotonia are the most prominent neuromuscular features of these diseases, while other clinical manifestations such as cardiomyopathy, insulin resistance and cataracts are also common. From a clinical perspective, most DM symptoms are interpreted as a result of an accelerated aging (cataracts, muscular weakness and atrophy, cognitive decline, metabolic dysfunction, etc.), including an increased risk of developing tumors. From this point of view, DM1 could be described as a progeroid syndrome since a notable age-dependent dysfunction of all systems occurs. The underlying molecular disorder in DM1 consists of the existence of a pathological (CTG) triplet expansion in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of the Dystrophia Myotonica Protein Kinase (DMPK) gene, whereas (CCTG)n repeats in the first intron of the Cellular Nucleic acid Binding Protein/Zinc Finger Protein 9 (CNBP/ZNF9) gene cause DM2. The expansions are transcribed into (CUG)n and (CCUG)n-containing RNA, respectively, which form secondary structures and sequester RNA-binding proteins, such as the splicing factor muscleblind-like protein (MBNL), forming nuclear aggregates known as foci. Other splicing factors, such as CUGBP, are also disrupted, leading to a spliceopathy of a large number of downstream genes linked to the clinical features of these diseases. Skeletal muscle regeneration relies on muscle progenitor cells, known as satellite cells, which are activated after muscle damage, and which proliferate and differentiate to muscle cells, thus regenerating the damaged tissue. Satellite cell dysfunction seems to be a common feature of both age-dependent muscle degeneration (sarcopenia) and muscle wasting in DM and other muscle degenerative diseases. This review aims to describe the cellular, molecular and macrostructural processes involved in the

  3. Constitutive modeling of the aging viscoelastic properties of portland cement paste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasley, Zachary C.; Lange, David A.

    2007-12-01

    Analytical approaches for modeling aging viscoelastic behavior of concrete include the time-shift approach (analogous to time-temperature superposition), the solidification theory, and the dissolution-precipitation approach. The aging viscoelastic properties of concrete are generally attributed solely to the cement paste phase since the aggregates are typically linear elastic. In this study, the aging viscoelastic behavior of four different cement pastes has been measured and modeled according to both the time-shift approach and the solidification theory. The inability of each individual model to fully characterize the aging viscoelastic response of the materials provides insight into the mechanisms for aging of the viscoelastic properties of cement paste and concrete. A model that considers aging due to solidification in combination with inherent aging of the cement paste gel (modeled using the time-shift approach) more accurately predicted the aging viscoelastic behavior of portland cement paste than either the solidification or time-shift approaches independently. The results provide evidence that solidification and other intrinsic gel aging mechanisms are concurrently active in the aging process of cementitious materials.

  4. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  5. The Statewide Training Model for a Continuing Education Certificate in Gerontology in Religion and Aging.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Barbara, Ed.; Payne, Barbara, Ed.

    This training model is a guide for developing statewide training for a continuing education certificate in gerontology in religion and aging. It is designed for use by gerontology educators, state office of aging executives, and leaders of religious judicatories. Section I begins with a description of the training model and covers where and how to…

  6. Deposition times in the northeastern United States during the Holocene: establishing valid priors for Bayesian age models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goring, S.; Williams, J. W.; Blois, J. L.; Jackson, S. T.; Paciorek, C. J.; Booth, R. K.; Marlon, J. R.; Blaauw, M.; Christen, J. A.

    2012-08-01

    Age-depth relationships in sedimentary archives such as lakes, wetlands and bogs are non-linear with irregular probability distributions associated with calibrated radiocarbon dates. Bayesian approaches are thus well-suited to understanding relationships between age and depth for use in paleoecological studies. Bayesian models for the accumulation of sediment and organic matter within basins combine dated material from one or more records with prior information about the behavior of deposition times (yr/cm) based on expert knowledge. Well-informed priors are essential to good modeling of the age-depth relationship, but are particularly important in cases where data may be sparse (e.g., few radiocarbon dates), or unclear (e.g., age-reversals, coincident dates, age offsets, outliers and dates within a radiocarbon plateau). Here we assessed Holocene deposition times using 204 age-depth models obtained from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database (www.neotomadb.org) for both lacustrine and palustrine environments across the northeastern United States. These age-depth models were augmented using biostratigraphic events identifiable within pollen records from the northeastern United States during the Holocene and late-Pleistocene. Deposition times are significantly related to depositional environment (palustrine and lacustrine), sediment age, and sediment depth. Spatial variables had non-significant relationships with deposition time when site effects were considered. The best-fit model was a generalized additive mixed model that relates deposition time to age, stratified by depositional environment with site as a random factor. The best-fit model accounts for 63.3% of the total deviance in deposition times. The strongly increasing accumulation rates of the last 500-1000 years indicate that gamma distributions describing lacustrine deposition times (α = 1.08, β = 18.28) and palustrine deposition times (α = 1.23, β = 22.32) for the entire Holocene may be insufficient for

  7. Early-age concrete strength estimation based on piezoelectric sensor using artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Junkyeong; Kim, Ju-Won; Park, Seunghee

    2014-04-01

    Recently, novel methods to estimate the strength of concrete have been reported based on numerous NDT methods. Especially, electro-mechanical impedance technique using piezoelectric sensors are studied to estimate the strength of concrete. However, the previous research works could not provide the general information about the early-age strength important to manage the quality of concrete and/or the construction process. In order to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, the electro-mechanical impedance method and the artificial neural network(ANN) is utilized in this study. The electro-mechanical impedance varies with the mechanical properties of host structures. Because the strength development is most influential factor among the change of mechanical properties at early-age of curing, it is possible to estimate the strength of concrete by analyzing the change of E/M impedance. The strength of concrete is a complex function of several factors like mix proportion, temperature, elasticity, etc. Because of this, it is hard to mathematically derive equations about strength of concrete. The ANN can provide the solution about early-age strength of concrete without mathematical equations. To verify the proposed approach, a series of experimental studies are conducted. The impedance signals are measured using embedded piezoelectric sensors during curing process and the resonant frequency of impedance is extracted as a strength feature. The strength of concrete is calculated by regression of strength development curve obtained by destructive test. Then ANN model is established by trained using experimental results. Finally the ANN model is verified using impedance data of other sensors.

  8. Structural scene analysis and content-based image retrieval applied to bone age assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Benedikt; Brosig, André; Deserno, Thomas M.; Ott, Bastian; Günther, Rolf W.

    2009-02-01

    Radiological bone age assessment is based on global or local image regions of interest (ROI), such as epiphyseal regions or the area of carpal bones. Usually, these regions are compared to a standardized reference and a score determining the skeletal maturity is calculated. For computer-assisted diagnosis, automatic ROI extraction is done so far by heuristic approaches. In this work, we apply a high-level approach of scene analysis for knowledge-based ROI segmentation. Based on a set of 100 reference images from the IRMA database, a so called structural prototype (SP) is trained. In this graph-based structure, the 14 phalanges and 5 metacarpal bones are represented by nodes, with associated location, shape, as well as texture parameters modeled by Gaussians. Accordingly, the Gaussians describing the relative positions, relative orientation, and other relative parameters between two nodes are associated to the edges. Thereafter, segmentation of a hand radiograph is done in several steps: (i) a multi-scale region merging scheme is applied to extract visually prominent regions; (ii) a graph/sub-graph matching to the SP robustly identifies a subset of the 19 bones; (iii) the SP is registered to the current image for complete scene-reconstruction (iv) the epiphyseal regions are extracted from the reconstructed scene. The evaluation is based on 137 images of Caucasian males from the USC hand atlas. Overall, an error rate of 32% is achieved, for the 6 middle distal and medial/distal epiphyses, 23% of all extractions need adjustments. On average 9.58 of the 14 epiphyseal regions were extracted successfully per image. This is promising for further use in content-based image retrieval (CBIR) and CBIR-based automatic bone age assessment.

  9. Crowdsourcing Based 3d Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somogyi, A.; Barsi, A.; Molnar, B.; Lovas, T.

    2016-06-01

    Web-based photo albums that support organizing and viewing the users' images are widely used. These services provide a convenient solution for storing, editing and sharing images. In many cases, the users attach geotags to the images in order to enable using them e.g. in location based applications on social networks. Our paper discusses a procedure that collects open access images from a site frequently visited by tourists. Geotagged pictures showing the image of a sight or tourist attraction are selected and processed in photogrammetric processing software that produces the 3D model of the captured object. For the particular investigation we selected three attractions in Budapest. To assess the geometrical accuracy, we used laser scanner and DSLR as well as smart phone photography to derive reference values to enable verifying the spatial model obtained from the web-album images. The investigation shows how detailed and accurate models could be derived applying photogrammetric processing software, simply by using images of the community, without visiting the site.

  10. Core Numerical Skills for Learning Mathematics in Children Aged Five to Eight Years--A Working Model for Educators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aunio, Pirjo; Räsänen, Pekka

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to model the most crucial numerical factors to the development of mathematical skills among children aged five to eight years (i.e. kindergarten, preschool, first and second graders). We categorised numerical skills into four main groups based on the results of longitudinal studies. A series of analyses of test batteries…

  11. UTAUT Model for Blended Learning: The Role of Gender and Age in the Intention to Use Webinars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khechine, Hager; Lakhal, Sawsen; Pascot, Daniel; Bytha, Alphonse

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the paper was to determine the factors that explain the acceptance of a webinar system (Elluminate) in a blended learning course by students. The effects of gender and age as moderating variables were also studied. Our hypotheses were based on the unified theory of acceptance and use of the technology model, which was proven to be…

  12. Joint Bayesian analysis of birthweight and censored gestational age using finite mixture models

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Scott L.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Miranda, Marie L.

    2016-01-01

    Birthweight and gestational age are closely related and represent important indicators of a healthy pregnancy. Customary modeling for birthweight is conditional on gestational age. However, joint modeling directly addresses the relationship between gestational age and birthweight, and provides increased flexibility and interpretation as well as a strategy to avoid using gestational age as an intermediate variable. Previous proposals have utilized finite mixtures of bivariate regression models to incorporate well-established risk factors into analysis (e.g. sex and birth order of the baby, maternal age, race, and tobacco use) while examining the non-Gaussian shape of the joint birthweight and gestational age distribution. We build on this approach by demonstrating the inferential (prognostic) benefits of joint modeling (e.g. investigation of `age inappropriate' outcomes like small for gestational age) and hence re-emphasize the importance of capturing the non-Gaussian distributional shapes. We additionally extend current models through a latent specification which admits interval-censored gestational age. We work within a Bayesian framework which enables inference beyond customary parameter estimation and prediction as well as exact uncertainty assessment. The model is applied to a portion of the 2003–2006 North Carolina Detailed Birth Record data (n=336129) available through the Children's Environmental Health Initiative and is fitted using the Bayesian methodology and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. PMID:20575047

  13. Age models for peat deposits on the basis of coupled lead-210 and radiocarbon data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piotrowska, Natalia; de Vleeschouwer, François; Sikorski, Jarosław; Sensuła, Barbara; Michczyński, Adam; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Palowski, Bernard

    2010-05-01

    The study presents three examples of age-model construction based on the results of 210Pb and 14C dating methods applied to peat deposits. The three sites are ombrotrophic peat bogs: the Misten (Belgium), Slowinskie Bloto (N Poland) and Puscizna Mala (S Poland). All sites have been subjected to multiproxy studies aimed at reconstructing paleoenvironment and human activity, covering the last 1500, 1300 and 1800 years, respectively (De Vleeschouwer et al. 2009A, 2009B, in prep., Fialkiewicz-Koziel, ongoing PhD). A detailed comparison between 210Pb and post-bomb 14C results in the Misten bog has also been carried out by Piotrowska et al. (2009). In all cores, the 210Pb activity was calculated using 210Po and 208Po activities after acid-extraction from bulk samples, subsequent deposition on silver discs and measurements by alpha spectrometry. Unsupported 210Pb was detected until 35cm in Slowinskie Bloto, 15cm in the Misten and 19cm in Puscizna Mala. Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model was then applied to compute ages of each 1-cm core interval. For the Misten and Slowinskie Bloto, radiocarbon measurements were performed on selected aboveground plant macrofossils, mainly Sphagnum spp. or Calluna vulgaris, Erica tetralix, and Andromeda polyfolia. Radiocarbon ages were determined using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) after acid-alkali-acid wash, combustion, purification of carbon dioxide and graphitisation. For Puscizna Mala bulk samples were dated after chemical preparation of benzene for liquid scintillation counting (LSC) or CO2 for gas proportional counting (GPC). Radiocarbon calibration was undertaken using the Intcal04 calibration curve and OxCal 4 software. As a priori information the 210Pb-derived ages were used in a P_Sequence model (Bronk Ramsey, 2008). A number of dates characterized by low agreement with stratigraphical order had to be considered as outliers and rejected from the final age model. For building a continuous age models a non-linear approach

  14. Construction of mass-age curves for the continental crust: An empirical model and an example from the western US

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Depaolo, D. J.; Schubert, G. S.; Linn, Ann

    1988-01-01

    The methodology of determining crustal mass-age curves is discussed. Problems in doing this include determination of model ages and accounting for mixing of materials of different ages during crust forming processes. These difficulties can be overcome with some reasonable assumptions and estimates of rock volumes based on areal proportions. This technique was used to construct a reasonably well constrained mass-age curve for the southwestern U.S. based on isotopic measurements on over 100 samples. The results imply that the crust in this area grew episodically at 2.8, 1.8, and 0.1 Ga. It is estimated that it would take on the order of 10000 to 100000 individual Sm-Nd isotopic measurements to carry out a similar exercise for continental crust world wide.

  15. Using skew-logistic probability density function as a model for age-specific fertility rate pattern.

    PubMed

    Asili, Sahar; Rezaei, Sadegh; Najjar, Lotfollah

    2014-01-01

    Fertility rate is one of the most important global indexes. Past researchers found models which fit to age-specific fertility rates. For example, mixture probability density functions have been proposed for situations with bi-modal fertility patterns. This model is less useful for unimodal age-specific fertility rate patterns, so a model based on skew-symmetric (skew-normal) pdf was proposed by Mazzuco and Scarpa (2011) which was flexible for unimodal and bimodal fertility patterns. In this paper, we introduce skew-logistic probability density function as a better model: its residuals are less than those of the skew-normal model and it can more precisely estimate the parameters of the model. PMID:24967404

  16. Model-based Utility Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbard, Bill

    2012-05-01

    Orseau and Ring, as well as Dewey, have recently described problems, including self-delusion, with the behavior of agents using various definitions of utility functions. An agent's utility function is defined in terms of the agent's history of interactions with its environment. This paper argues, via two examples, that the behavior problems can be avoided by formulating the utility function in two steps: 1) inferring a model of the environment from interactions, and 2) computing utility as a function of the environment model. Basing a utility function on a model that the agent must learn implies that the utility function must initially be expressed in terms of specifications to be matched to structures in the learned model. These specifications constitute prior assumptions about the environment so this approach will not work with arbitrary environments. But the approach should work for agents designed by humans to act in the physical world. The paper also addresses the issue of self-modifying agents and shows that if provided with the possibility to modify their utility functions agents will not choose to do so, under some usual assumptions.

  17. Toward an animal model of extinction-induced despair: focus on aging and physiological indices.

    PubMed

    Huston, Joseph P; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2009-08-01

    Behaviors that are under the control of positive or negative reinforcers undergo extinction when the anticipated reward/reinforcer is withheld. Despair, an important symptom of environmentally determined depression in humans, can be generated by extinction, or the failure of expected reward to accrue. Although well known to clinicians dealing with depressive patients, an animal model has not been available for extinction-induced depression. We have made a beginning towards validating such a model, based on the extinction of negatively reinforced behavior in the rat, i.e., upon removal of the possibility to escape onto a safety platform in the water maze. As a marker for despair, we employed behavioral immobility, i.e., the cessation of swimming in the attempt to find safety from the water, presumably, a type of learned helplessness. This measure was sensitive to antidepressants and correlated with neurotransmitter contents, neurotrophins and hypothalamus-pituitary adrenal axis markers in selected sites of the brain. Given that some cases of depression in the elderly may be biologically distinct from others and from early-onset depression, and since particularly the aged are prone to experience extinction-induced despair, we compared aged (ca. 24 months old) animals with adults in most of our studies. We found a number of distinct differences in behavioral and biological measures, indicative of differences in propensity to, as well as response to, extinction-induced despair between aged and adults. Our results add to the body of evidence for differences in the neurobiological substrates of depressive disorders between aged and adults, with the implication for the requirement of different treatment strategies in these two populations. PMID:19350220

  18. A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

    PubMed

    Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

    2016-06-01

    Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations.

  19. A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

    PubMed

    Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

    2016-06-01

    Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations. PMID:26328769

  20. Aging and strain softening model for episodic faulting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    1979-01-01

    Episodic slip on shallow crustal faults can be qualitatively explained by postulating a fault constitutive law that is the superposition of two limiting material responses: (1) strain softening after peak stress during large strain rates, and (2) strength (peak stress) recovery during aging at small strain rates. A single law permits a variety of seismic and aseismic phenomena to occur over a range of space and time scales. Specific cases are determined by the spatial variation of material constants, recent deformation history, crustal rigidity, and remote forcing. ?? 1979.

  1. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent based versus structured metapopulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonçalves, Bruno; Ajelli, Marco; Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2010-03-01

    We provide for the first time a side by side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the evolution of a baseline pandemic event in Italy. The Agent Based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short range human mobility patterns at the global scale. Both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing of the order of few days. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes.

  2. Mini-review: Retarding aging in murine genetic models of neurodegeneration.

    PubMed

    Albin, Roger L; Miller, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    Retardation of aging processes is a plausible approach to delaying the onset or slowing the progression of common neurodegenerative disorders. We review the results of experiments using murine genetic models of Alzheimer disease and Huntington disease to evaluate the effects of retarding aging. While positive results are reported in several of these experiments, there are several discrepancies in behavioral and pathologic outcomes both within and between different experiments. Similarly, different experiments yield varying assessments of potential proximate mechanisms of action of retarding aging. The anti-aging interventions used for some experiments include some that show only modest effects on lifespan, and others that have proven hard to reproduce. Several experiments used aggressive transgenic neurodegenerative disease models that may be less relevant in the context of age-related diseases. The experience with these models and interventions may be useful in designing future experiments assessing anti-aging interventions for disease-modifying treatment of neurodegenerative diseases.

  3. NewAge: a semi-distributed hydrological model as a dynamical system, and something more.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigon, Riccardo; Franceschi, Silvia; Antonello, Andrea; Endrizzi, Stefano; Formetta, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    We describe and analyse the performances of the semi-distributed hydrological model NewAGE. This model itself is made-up of five main parts: the radiation budget estimation, the snow modelling, the evapotranspiration part, the hillslope runoff budget and the runoff aggregation in the river network, and finally the flood propagation. The model concept is based on the idea the elementary units are the hillslopes for each one the model gives the estimates of the prognostic simulated variables (one estimate for variable). Each "hillslope" does not need to coincide to the real hillslope, and can actually cover a small basin, up to some square kilometres. It constitutes the elementary "grid" element of the model. Each "hillslope" is connected to the others by the channel network. In turn, this is represented by an oriented graph, whose links are numbered through a generalisation of the Pfafstetter ordering. The topological partition of the basin is performed by a proper set of tools in JGrass. The mass budget for each hillslope is performed according to a suitable modification of Duffy (1996) dynamical model of hillslope runoff. Discharge in each link of the river network is evaluated according to Cuencas (2005). Radiation is calculated accounting for the sub-hillslope-variability in accord to a suitable scheme described in this contribution. Evapotranspiration estimation uses the Penman-Monteith formula, and includes hillslope variability in land use, soil cover and hydrological state. Flood wave propagation for the main streams can be estimated with a solver of the 1D de Saint Venant equation. Snow is modelled by a custom implementation of the Utah Energy Balance concepts. This model can simulate all the parts of the hydrological cycle, but besides being also a model of the physical processes, it also implements the infrastructure dealing with human works and reservoirs. These modelling parts are supported by appropriate ancillary modules for the treatment of the

  4. Equilibrium population dynamics when mating is by mutual choice based on age.

    PubMed

    Alpern, Steve; Katrantzi, Ioanna; Ramsey, David

    2014-06-01

    We consider a steady state model of mutual mate choice in which an individual's mate preferences depend on his/her age, and the preferences are over the ages of prospective mates of the opposite sex. We present a discrete time (and age) model corresponding to successive mating seasons. Males are fertile for m periods (corresponding to 'age' i=1 to m) and females for n≤m periods (they have ages j=1 to n), which is all that distinguishes the sexes. Although we can deal with arbitrary preferences, we concentrate on a simple fertility model where the common utility to a male age i and female age j who mate is the number K=min(m-i+1,n-j+1) of future periods of joint fertility. The incoming sex ratio R of age 1 males to age 1 females is given exogenously. In each period individuals are randomly (non assortatively) matched and form a mated couple by mutual consent; otherwise they go into the next period unmated and older. We derive properties of equilibrium threshold acceptance strategies and establish the existence of time-invariant age distributions. Our methods determine the age distribution of couples at marriage (mating) and the population sex ratio (OSR) at equilibrium. Since this can be determined empirically in a population, our model can be used to rule out most systems of age preferences (those not consistent with the observed distribution). This extends earlier models of mutual choice with one dimensional types of Alpern and Reyniers [1999. Strategic mating with homotypic preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 198, 71-88; 2005. Strategic mating with common preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 237, 337-354] where individuals sought, respectively, individuals with similar or high types, but in those models an individual's type was fixed over time. Under the simple fertility model, at equilibrium the maximum age of an acceptable partner is increasing in the age of the searcher. Our results relate to discussions in the literature regarding optimal parental age differences, age

  5. Equilibrium population dynamics when mating is by mutual choice based on age.

    PubMed

    Alpern, Steve; Katrantzi, Ioanna; Ramsey, David

    2014-06-01

    We consider a steady state model of mutual mate choice in which an individual's mate preferences depend on his/her age, and the preferences are over the ages of prospective mates of the opposite sex. We present a discrete time (and age) model corresponding to successive mating seasons. Males are fertile for m periods (corresponding to 'age' i=1 to m) and females for n≤m periods (they have ages j=1 to n), which is all that distinguishes the sexes. Although we can deal with arbitrary preferences, we concentrate on a simple fertility model where the common utility to a male age i and female age j who mate is the number K=min(m-i+1,n-j+1) of future periods of joint fertility. The incoming sex ratio R of age 1 males to age 1 females is given exogenously. In each period individuals are randomly (non assortatively) matched and form a mated couple by mutual consent; otherwise they go into the next period unmated and older. We derive properties of equilibrium threshold acceptance strategies and establish the existence of time-invariant age distributions. Our methods determine the age distribution of couples at marriage (mating) and the population sex ratio (OSR) at equilibrium. Since this can be determined empirically in a population, our model can be used to rule out most systems of age preferences (those not consistent with the observed distribution). This extends earlier models of mutual choice with one dimensional types of Alpern and Reyniers [1999. Strategic mating with homotypic preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 198, 71-88; 2005. Strategic mating with common preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 237, 337-354] where individuals sought, respectively, individuals with similar or high types, but in those models an individual's type was fixed over time. Under the simple fertility model, at equilibrium the maximum age of an acceptable partner is increasing in the age of the searcher. Our results relate to discussions in the literature regarding optimal parental age differences, age

  6. The African Turquoise Killifish: A Model for Exploring Vertebrate Aging and Diseases in the Fast Lane.

    PubMed

    Harel, Itamar; Brunet, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Why and how organisms age remains a mystery, and it defines one of the biggest challenges in biology. Aging is also the primary risk factor for many human pathologies, such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, manipulating the aging rate and potentially postponing the onset of these devastating diseases could have a tremendous impact on human health. Recent studies, relying primarily on nonvertebrate short-lived model systems, have shown the importance of both genetic and environmental factors in modulating the aging rate. However, relatively little is known about aging in vertebrates or what processes may be unique and specific to these complex organisms. Here we discuss how advances in genomics and genome editing have significantly expanded our ability to probe the aging process in a vertebrate system. We highlight recent findings from a naturally short-lived vertebrate, the African turquoise killifish, which provides an attractive platform for exploring mechanisms underlying vertebrate aging and age-related diseases.

  7. Different storage and retrieval deficits in normal aging and mild cognitive impairment: a multinomial modeling analysis.

    PubMed

    Bröder, Arndt; Herwig, Andrea; Teipel, Stefan; Fast, Kristina

    2008-06-01

    The authors compared patients with mild cognitive impairment with healthy older adults and young control participants in a free recall test in order to locate potential qualitative differences in normal and pathological memory decline. Analysis with an extended multitrial version of W. H. Batchelder and D. M. Riefer's (1980) pair-clustering model revealed globally decelerated learning and an additional retrieval deficit in patients with mild cognitive impairment but not in healthy older adults. Results thus suggest differences in memory decline between normal and pathological aging that may be useful for the detection of risk groups for dementia, and they illustrate the value of model-based disentangling of processes and of multitrial tests for early detection of dementia.

  8. A Rat Model System to Study Complex Disease Risks, Fitness, Aging, and Longevity

    PubMed Central

    Koch, Lauren Gerard; Britton, Steven L.; Wisløff, Ulrik

    2012-01-01

    The association between low exercise capacity and all-cause morbidity and mortality is statistically strong yet mechanistically unresolved. By connecting clinical observation with a theoretical base, we developed a working hypothesis that variation in capacity for oxygen metabolism is the central mechanistic determinant between disease and health (aerobic hypothesis). As an unbiased test, we show that two-way artificial selective breeding of rats for low and high intrinsic endurance exercise capacity also produces rats that differ for numerous disease risks including the metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular complications, premature aging, and reduced longevity. This contrasting animal model system may prove to be translationally superior, relative to more widely-used simplistic models for understanding geriatric biology and medicine. PMID:22867966

  9. Model Based Inference for Wire Chafe Diagnostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin R.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Kowalski, Marc Edward

    2009-01-01

    Presentation for Aging Aircraft conference covering chafing fault diagnostics using Time Domain Reflectometry. Laboratory setup and experimental methods are presented, along with initial results that summarize fault modeling and detection capabilities.

  10. The National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry: A Sustainable Model for the Information Age?

    PubMed Central

    Dutton, Richard P.

    2014-01-01

    Anesthesiologists care for patients of all ages, with all conceivable comorbidities, in every kind of health care facility. This leads to a significant challenge in the collection of data to describe the specialty, and in the development of evidence-based performance measures for anesthesiologists. Whereas narrowly defined medical specialties have developed registries based on manual abstraction of clinical data from the medical record (e.g., cardiac surgery), this approach would be prohibitively expensive for anesthesiology, and is unlikely to generate statistically useful data when major adverse outcomes occur a handful of times in tens of thousands of cases. The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) addressed this challenge in 2008 by funding a related organization, the Anesthesia Quality Institute (AQI), to develop the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry (NACOR). The technical development of this registry and the approach taken to define the specialty of anesthesiology and the performance of anesthesiologists may serve as a model for other specialty society efforts. PMID:25848607

  11. Computational models in the age of large datasets.

    PubMed

    O'Leary, Timothy; Sutton, Alexander C; Marder, Eve

    2015-06-01

    Technological advances in experimental neuroscience are generating vast quantities of data, from the dynamics of single molecules to the structure and activity patterns of large networks of neurons. How do we make sense of these voluminous, complex, disparate and often incomplete data? How do we find general principles in the morass of detail? Computational models are invaluable and necessary in this task and yield insights that cannot otherwise be obtained. However, building and interpreting good computational models is a substantial challenge, especially so in the era of large datasets. Fitting detailed models to experimental data is difficult and often requires onerous assumptions, while more loosely constrained conceptual models that explore broad hypotheses and principles can yield more useful insights.

  12. Development of the Japanese reference man model for age-specific phantoms.

    PubMed

    Kawamura, Hisao

    2012-03-01

    Recent interest in improving methods for calculating radiation doses to atomic bomb survivors necessitates reinforcing the data on masses of organs of the Japanese population in 1945, including those that are not calculated by DS02, as well as increasing the number of phantoms for different ages. Reference is made to published data on the masses of organs in normal Japanese subjects of 0-90 y of age with more than 5000 samples during 1970-80, as well as the weight and size of the total body. The first Japanese Reference Man model, primarily based on these data and following the ICRP Reference Man concept, is briefly explained. It provides a set of reference values for males and females of six age groups, i.e. 3 months, 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20-50 y. To consider the organ masses of the Japanese population in 1945, the data during the period 1970-80 are compared with the literature data of normal Japanese reported in 1952. Differences between the two sets of organ data in adults are discussed in relation to changes in the national status of nutrition. Additional organ masses of current interest for the Japanese population in 1945 are preliminarily considered.

  13. Epigenetic age predictions based on buccal swabs are more precise in combination with cell type-specific DNA methylation signatures

    PubMed Central

    Eipel, Monika; Mayer, Felix; Arent, Tanja; Ferreira, Marcelo R. P.; Birkhofer, Carina; Gerstenmaier, Uwe; Costa, Ivan G.; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Aging is reflected by highly reproducible DNA methylation (DNAm) changes that open new perspectives for estimation of chronological age in legal medicine. DNA can be harvested non-invasively from cells at the inside of a person's cheek using buccal swabs – but these specimens resemble heterogeneous mixtures of buccal epithelial cells and leukocytes with different epigenetic makeup. In this study, we have trained an age predictor based on three age-associated CpG sites (associated with the genes PDE4C, ASPA, and ITGA2B) for swab samples to reach a mean absolute deviation (MAD) between predicted and chronological age of 4.3 years in a training set and of 7.03 years in a validation set. Subsequently, the composition of buccal epithelial cells versus leukocytes was estimated by two additional CpGs (associated with the genes CD6 and SERPINB5). Results of this “Buccal-Cell-Signature” correlated with cell counts in cytological stains (R2 = 0.94). Combination of cell type-specific and age-associated CpGs into one multivariate model enabled age predictions with MADs of 5.09 years and 5.12 years in two independent validation sets. Our results demonstrate that the cellular composition in buccal swab samples can be determined by DNAm at two cell type-specific CpGs to improve epigenetic age predictions. PMID:27249102

  14. Successful Aging: A Psychosocial Resources Model for Very Old Adults

    PubMed Central

    Randall, G. Kevin; Martin, Peter; Johnson, Mary Ann; Poon, Leonard W.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives. Using data from the first two phases of the Georgia Centenarian Study, we proposed a latent factor structure for the Duke OARS domains: Economic Resources, Mental Health, Activities of Daily Living, Physical Health, and Social Resources. Methods. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on two waves of the Georgia Centenarian Study to test a latent variable measurement model of the five resources; nested model testing was employed to assess the final measurement model for equivalency of factor structure over time. Results. The specified measurement model fit the data well at Time 1. However, at Time 2, Social Resources only had one indicator load significantly and substantively. Supplemental analyses demonstrated that a model without Social Resources adequately fit the data. Factorial invariance over time was confirmed for the remaining four latent variables. Discussion. This study's findings allow researchers and clinicians to reduce the number of OARS questions asked of participants. This has practical implications because increased difficulties with hearing, vision, and fatigue in older adults may require extended time or multiple interviewer sessions to complete the battery of OARS questions. PMID:22900180

  15. GPU-Accelerated Molecular Modeling Coming Of Age

    PubMed Central

    Stone, John E.; Hardy, David J.; Ufimtsev, Ivan S.

    2010-01-01

    Graphics processing units (GPUs) have traditionally been used in molecular modeling solely for visualization of molecular structures and animation of trajectories resulting from molecular dynamics simulations. Modern GPUs have evolved into fully programmable, massively parallel co-processors that can now be exploited to accelerate many scientific computations, typically providing about one order of magnitude speedup over CPU code and in special cases providing speedups of two orders of magnitude. This paper surveys the development of molecular modeling algorithms that leverage GPU computing, the advances already made and remaining issues to be resolved, and the continuing evolution of GPU technology that promises to become even more useful to molecular modeling. Hardware acceleration with commodity GPUs is expected to benefit the overall computational biology community by bringing teraflops performance to desktop workstations and in some cases potentially changing what were formerly batch-mode computational jobs into interactive tasks. PMID:20675161

  16. Intelligent model-based OPC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, W. C.; Lai, C. M.; Luo, B.; Tsai, C. K.; Chih, M. H.; Lai, C. W.; Kuo, C. C.; Liu, R. G.; Lin, H. T.

    2006-03-01

    Optical proximity correction is the technique of pre-distorting mask layouts so that the printed patterns are as close to the desired shapes as possible. For model-based optical proximity correction, a lithographic model to predict the edge position (contour) of patterns on the wafer after lithographic processing is needed. Generally, segmentation of edges is performed prior to the correction. Pattern edges are dissected into several small segments with corresponding target points. During the correction, the edges are moved back and forth from the initial drawn position, assisted by the lithographic model, to finally settle on the proper positions. When the correction converges, the intensity predicted by the model in every target points hits the model-specific threshold value. Several iterations are required to achieve the convergence and the computation time increases with the increase of the required iterations. An artificial neural network is an information-processing paradigm inspired by biological nervous systems, such as how the brain processes information. It is composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurons) working in unison to solve specific problems. A neural network can be a powerful data-modeling tool that is able to capture and represent complex input/output relationships. The network can accurately predict the behavior of a system via the learning procedure. A radial basis function network, a variant of artificial neural network, is an efficient function approximator. In this paper, a radial basis function network was used to build a mapping from the segment characteristics to the edge shift from the drawn position. This network can provide a good initial guess for each segment that OPC has carried out. The good initial guess reduces the required iterations. Consequently, cycle time can be shortened effectively. The optimization of the radial basis function network for this system was practiced by genetic algorithm

  17. Estimating Age-Specific Immunity and Force of Infection of Varicella Zoster Virus in Norway Using Mixture Models

    PubMed Central

    Rimseliene, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero

    2016-01-01

    This study applies mixture modelling to examine age-specific immunity to varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection in Norway based on the first large-scale serological study in the general population. We estimated the seropositive proportions at different ages and calculated the underlying force of infection by using a sample of 2103 residual sera obtained from patients seeking primary and hospital care. A rapid increase in the VZV-associated immunity is observed in the first years of life with 63% of children being immune by age 5. The increase in the immunity levels slows down thereafter, with a large proportion of adults still susceptible by age 20 (around 14.5%), thus at risk of serious sequelae of varicella infection. The corresponding force of infection peaks during the preschool period, subsequently declines to a minimum between ages 10 and 20 years, and afterwards moderately increases to reach a plateau lasting throughout the childbearing period. In comparison with the traditional cut-off approach, mixture modelling used the whole data without producing any inconclusive cases, led to an unbiased classification of individuals between susceptible and immune, and provided a smoother immune profile by age. These findings represent an important step towards any decision about the introduction of varicella vaccination in Norway, as they are a primary input for mathematical transmission models aimed at evaluating potential vaccination scenarios. PMID:27689800

  18. Determination of a Change Point in the Age at Diagnosis of Breast Cancer Using a Survival Model.

    PubMed

    Abdollahi, Mahbubeh; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Haghighat, Shahpar

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer, the second cause of cancer-related death after lung cancer and the most common cancer in women after skin cancer, is curable if detected in early stages of clinical presentation. Knowledge as to any age cut-off points which might have significance for prognostic groups is important in screening and treatment planning. Therefore, determining a change-point could improve resource allocation. This study aimed to determine if a change point for survival might exist in the age of breast cancer diagnosis. This study included 568 cases of breast cancer that were registered in Breast Cancer Research Center, Tehran, Iran, during the period 1986-2006 and were followed up to 2012. In the presence of curable cases of breast cancer, a change point in the age of breast cancer diagnosis was estimated using a mixture survival cure model. The data were analyzed using SPSS (versions 20) and R (version 2.15.0) software. The results revealed that a change point in the age of breast cancer diagnosis was at 50 years age. Based on our estimation, 35% of the patients diagnosed with breast cancer at age less than or equal to 50 years of age were cured while the figure was 57% for those diagnosed after 50 years of age. Those in the older age group had better survival compared to their younger counterparts during 12 years of follow up. Our results suggest that it is better to estimate change points in age for cancers which are curable in early stages using survival cure models, and that the cure rate would increase with timely screening for breast cancer.

  19. Biometry based ageing of nestling Indian Spotted Owlets ( Athene brama brama)

    PubMed Central

    Pande, Satish; Pawashe, Amit; Mahajan, Mahadeo N.; Mahabal, Anil; Yosef, Reuven; Dahanukar, Neelesh

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Biometric analysis helps in sex differentiation, understanding development and for studies of avian biology such as foraging ecology, evolutionary ecology, and survivorship. We suggest that biometry can also be a reliable, practical and inexpensive tool to determine the age of nestlings in the field by non-invasive methods. As an example we studied the biometry of wing, culmen, talon, tarsus and body mass of nestling southern Indian Spotted Owlets (Athene brama brama). Based on the growth pattern analysis using logistic growth model, discriminant analysis and CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) based decision tree, we show that biometry of nestling Spotted Owlets is an easy, reliable and inexpensive method to determine nestling age and to assess growth rate and relative nutritional status. These biometric parameters also allow us to predict their ability to initiate first flight from the nest site. This method is described here for the first time and we postulate that such charts can be devised for other avian species as well, so as to assist conservation biologists and bird rescuers. PMID:22140335

  20. Biometry based ageing of nestling Indian Spotted Owlets ( Athene brama brama).

    PubMed

    Pande, Satish; Pawashe, Amit; Mahajan, Mahadeo N; Mahabal, Anil; Yosef, Reuven; Dahanukar, Neelesh

    2011-01-01

    Biometric analysis helps in sex differentiation, understanding development and for studies of avian biology such as foraging ecology, evolutionary ecology, and survivorship. We suggest that biometry can also be a reliable, practical and inexpensive tool to determine the age of nestlings in the field by non-invasive methods. As an example we studied the biometry of wing, culmen, talon, tarsus and body mass of nestling southern Indian Spotted Owlets (Athene brama brama). Based on the growth pattern analysis using logistic growth model, discriminant analysis and CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) based decision tree, we show that biometry of nestling Spotted Owlets is an easy, reliable and inexpensive method to determine nestling age and to assess growth rate and relative nutritional status. These biometric parameters also allow us to predict their ability to initiate first flight from the nest site. This method is described here for the first time and we postulate that such charts can be devised for other avian species as well, so as to assist conservation biologists and bird rescuers.

  1. A Model to Determine the Likely Age of an Adolescent’s First Drink of Alcohol

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Grace; Kramer, John R.; Wetherill, Leah; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Dick, Danielle; Hesselbrock, Victor; Porjesz, Bernice; Rangaswamy, Madhavi; Schuckit, Marc

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: With the use of a new cohort of adolescent subjects, predictors from the Semi-Structured Assessment for the Genetics of Alcoholism (SSAGA) interview and the Achenbach Youth Self Report (YSR) were combined to model age of first drink (AFD). METHODS: Subjects consisted of 820 adolescents (ages 14–17) drawn from the current phase of the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism. Three Cox proportional hazards models were considered. Model 1 contained SSAGA variables equivalent to AFD predictors from our previous study: interview age, family history of alcohol dependence, and number of conduct disorder symptoms. Model 2 incorporated 2 additional SSAGA questions (best friends drink and smoked a cigarette before a reported AFD) plus 8 YSR-derived scale scores. Model 3 was a reduced version of model 2, retaining only significant predictors. RESULTS: Model 2 was a significant improvement over model 1. Model 3 was the best and the most parsimonious of the 3 with respect to likelihood ratio and Wald χ2 tests and retained only 5 variables from model 2. Included variables were the following: (1) best friends drink, (2) membership in a high-risk alcohol dependence family, (3) number of conduct disorder symptoms, (4) YSR externalizing score, and (5) YSR social problems score. CONCLUSIONS: Adding variables to those from our original study improved our ability to model the likely age of alcohol initiation. In addition to the SSAGA, the YSR appears to have utility as a research tool to predict the age of alcohol initiation. PMID:23296431

  2. Dental age estimation based on third molar eruption in First Nation people of Canada.

    PubMed

    Schmeling, A; Olze, A; Pynn, B R; Kraul, V; Schulz, R; Heinecke, A; Pfeiffer, H

    2010-12-01

    Forensic age estimation of living subjects has become an increasing focus of interest in modern society. One main criterion for dental age estimation in the relevant age group is the evaluation of third molar eruption. The importance of ethnic variation in dental development requires population specific data for dental age evaluation. In the present study, we determined the stages of third molar eruption in 347 female and 258 male First Nations people of Canada aged 11 to 29 years based on radiological evidence from 605 conventional orthopantomograms. The results presented here provide data on the age of alveolar, gingival, and complete eruption of the third molars in the occlusal plane that can be used for forensic estimation of the minimum and most probable ages of investigated individuals.

  3. In vivo animal models of body composition in aging

    SciTech Connect

    Yasumura, S. |; Jones, K.; Spanne, P.; Schidlovsky, G.; Wielopolski, L.; Ren, X.; Glaros, D.; Xatzikonstantinou, Y. |

    1992-12-31

    We developed several techniques that provide data on body elemental composition from in vivo measurements in rats. These methods include total body potassium by whole-body counting of endogenous {sup 40}K; total body calcium (TBCa), sodium and chloride by in vivo neutron activation analysis and total body phosphorus (TBP) and nitrogen (TBN) by photon activation analysis. These elements provide information on total body fat, total body protein and skeletal mass. Measurements were made in 6-, 12- and 24-month-old rats. TBN Increased slightly between 6 and 12 months but was significantly lower by 24 months, indicating a substantial loss in total body protein. Working at the National Synchrotron light Source, we studied rat femurs by computed microtomography (CMT), and the elemental profile of the femur cortex by synchrotron-radiation induced X-ray emission (SRIXE). Although there were no significant changes in TBCA and TBP, indices of skeletal mass, CMT revealed a marked increase in the size and number of cavities in the endosteal region of the femur cortex with increasing age. The SRIXE analysis of this cortical bone revealed a parallel decrease in the endosteal Ca/P ratio. Thus, there are major alterations in bone morphology and regional elemental composition despite only modest changes in total skeletal mass.

  4. Adaptation to stroke using a model of successful aging.

    PubMed

    Donnellan, C; Hevey, D; Hickey, A; O'Neill, D

    2012-01-01

    The process of adaptation to the physical and psychosocial consequences after stroke is a major challenge for many individuals affected. The aim of this study was to examine if stroke patients within 1 month of admission (n = 153) and followed up at 1 year (n = 107) engage in selection, optimization, and compensation (SOC) adaptive strategies and the relationship of these strategies with functional ability, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and depression 1 year later. Adaptive strategies were measured using a 15-item SOC questionnaire. Internal and external resources were assessed including recovery locus of control, stroke severity, and socio-demographics. Outcome measures were the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Questionnaire (SS-QoL), the Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living Scale and the Depression Subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Findings indicated that stroke patients engaged in the use of SOC strategies but the use of these strategies were not predictive of HRQOL, functional ability or depression 1 year after stroke. The use of SOC strategies were not age specific and were consistent over time, with the exception of the compensation subscale. Results indicate that SOC strategies may potentially be used in response to loss regulation after stroke and that an individual's initial HRQOL functional ability, levels of depression and socio-economic status that are important factors in determining outcome 1 year after stroke. A stroke-specific measure of SOC may be warranted in order to detect significant differences in determining outcomes for a stroke population.

  5. Using synthetic models to simulate aging of Cu contamination in soils.

    PubMed

    Proffit, S; Marin, B; Cances, B; Ponthieu, M; Sayen, S; Guillon, E

    2015-05-01

    The Bureau Commun de Référence (BCR) sequential extraction scheme and micro-synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence (μ-SXRF) analysis were used to determine the Cu fractionation in a calcareous vineyard soil and a synthetic soil (mixture of seven constituents: calcite, birnessite, ferrihydrite, goethite, lignocellulosic residue, kaolinite, and quartz) at different Cu contamination rates (190, 1270, and 6350 mg kg(-1) of Cu) and aging times (1, 30, 92, and 181 days). The Cu distribution in the spiked vineyard and synthetic soils was different from the original vineyard one and was influenced by the loading level. The newly added Cu was preferentially present in the acid soluble fraction. Aging of the contaminated vineyard and synthetic soils during 6 months led to the redistribution of Cu from the weakly bound acid soluble fraction to the strongly bound reducible one. The evolution with time could satisfactorily be simulated by the Elovich diffusion model for the synthetic soils. It was less significant as less marked in the contaminated vineyard soil than in the synthetic one, even though the trends observed in both were similar. This study supported the hypothesis that "simple" synthetic models could be used to approach the Cu fractionation and its evolution with time in vineyard soils.

  6. Circadian typology, age, and the alternative five-factor personality model in an adult women sample.

    PubMed

    Muro, Anna; Gomà-i-Freixanet, Montserrat; Adan, Ana; Cladellas, Ramon

    2011-10-01

    Research on personality and circadian typology indicates evening-type women are more impulsive and novelty seeking, neither types are more anxious, and morning types tend to be more active, conscientious, and persistent. The purpose of this study is to examine the differences between circadian typologies in the light of the Zuckerman's Alternative Five-Factor Model (AFFM) of personality, which has a strong biological basis, in an adult sample of 412 women 18 to 55 yrs of age. The authors found morning-type women had significant higher scores than evening-type and neither-type women on Activity, and its subscales General Activity and Work Activity. In contrast, evening-type women scored significantly higher than morning-type women on Aggression-Hostility, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, and its subscale Sensation Seeking. In all groups, results were independent of age. These findings are in accordance with those previously obtained in female student samples and add new data on the AFFM. The need of using personality models that are biologically based in the study of circadian rhythms is discussed.

  7. Estimating life expectancy using an age-cohort model in Taiwan.

    PubMed Central

    Lee, W C; Hsieh, R L

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Life expectation is a valuable summary index in public health and actuarial science. The life expectancies published in the vital statistics, however, are derived from the "current" rather than from the "cohort" life table. The former is based on a strong assumption of constant mortality in the population, whereas the latter calls for a recording of the mortality experience of a group of individuals, which is often an impossible task. Thus, a method of calculating cohort life expectancy without actual follow up is much needed. METHODS: Estimation of cohort life expectancy was based on an age-cohort model. Mortality data for the male population in Taiwan from 1951 to 1990 are used to illustrate the methodology. RESULTS: The increment of life expectancy over time in Taiwan is actually steeper than was previously thought using the current life table technique. CONCLUSIONS: The method is easy to implement and the data required are the usual age and period cross classified mortality data. It warrants further investigation. PMID:8762391

  8. Transcriptional profiling reveals progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mice as a model system for glomerular aging

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Aging-related kidney diseases are a major health concern. Currently, models to study renal aging are lacking. Due to a reduced life-span progeroid models hold the promise to facilitate aging studies and allow examination of tissue-specific changes. Defects in genome maintenance in the Ercc1-/Δ progeroid mouse model result in premature aging and typical age-related pathologies. Here, we compared the glomerular transcriptome of young and aged Ercc1-deficient mice to young and aged WT mice in order to establish a novel model for research of aging-related kidney disease. Results In a principal component analysis, age and genotype emerged as first and second principal components. Hierarchical clustering of all 521 genes differentially regulated between young and old WT and young and old Ercc1-/Δ mice showed cluster formation between young WT and Ercc1-/Δ as well as old WT and Ercc1-/Δ samples. An unexpectedly high number of 77 genes were differentially regulated in both WT and Ercc1-/Δ mice (p < 0.0001). GO term enrichment analysis revealed these genes to be involved in immune and inflammatory response, cell death, and chemotaxis. In a network analysis, these genes were part of insulin signaling, chemokine and cytokine signaling and extracellular matrix pathways. Conclusion Beyond insulin signaling, we find chemokine and cytokine signaling as well as modifiers of extracellular matrix composition to be subject to major changes in the aging glomerulus. At the level of the transcriptome, the pattern of gene activities is similar in the progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mouse model constituting a valuable tool for future studies of aging-associated glomerular pathologies. PMID:23947592

  9. Tile-based Level of Detail for the Parallel Age

    SciTech Connect

    Niski, K; Cohen, J D

    2007-08-15

    Today's PCs incorporate multiple CPUs and GPUs and are easily arranged in clusters for high-performance, interactive graphics. We present an approach based on hierarchical, screen-space tiles to parallelizing rendering with level of detail. Adapt tiles, render tiles, and machine tiles are associated with CPUs, GPUs, and PCs, respectively, to efficiently parallelize the workload with good resource utilization. Adaptive tile sizes provide load balancing while our level of detail system allows total and independent management of the load on CPUs and GPUs. We demonstrate our approach on parallel configurations consisting of both single PCs and a cluster of PCs.

  10. Sensor-based interior modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Herbert, M.; Hoffman, R.; Johnson, A.; Osborn, J.

    1995-02-01

    Robots and remote systems will play crucial roles in future decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of nuclear facilities. Many of these facilities, such as uranium enrichment plants, weapons assembly plants, research and production reactors, and fuel recycling facilities, are dormant; there is also an increasing number of commercial reactors whose useful lifetime is nearly over. To reduce worker exposure to radiation, occupational and other hazards associated with D&D tasks, robots will execute much of the work agenda. Traditional teleoperated systems rely on human understanding (based on information gathered by remote viewing cameras) of the work environment to safely control the remote equipment. However, removing the operator from the work site substantially reduces his efficiency and effectiveness. To approach the productivity of a human worker, tasks will be performed telerobotically, in which many aspects of task execution are delegated to robot controllers and other software. This paper describes a system that semi-automatically builds a virtual world for remote D&D operations by constructing 3-D models of a robot`s work environment. Planar and quadric surface representations of objects typically found in nuclear facilities are generated from laser rangefinder data with a minimum of human interaction. The surface representations are then incorporated into a task space model that can be viewed and analyzed by the operator, accessed by motion planning and robot safeguarding algorithms, and ultimately used by the operator to instruct the robot at a level much higher than teleoperation.

  11. A Comparison of the Age-Spectra from Data Assimilation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Zhu, Zheng-Xin; Pawson, Steven; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably well-isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the diabatic trajectory calculations, the age spectrum is too broad as a result of too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum determined using the kinematic trajectory calculation is less broad and lacks an age offset; both of these features are due to excessive vertical dispersion of parcels. The tropical and mid-latitude mean age difference between the diabatically and kinematically determined age-spectra is about one year, the former being older. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM's are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles, and these anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. These anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport is too diffusive.

  12. Three layer functional model and energy exchange concept of aging process

    PubMed Central

    Mihajlovic, William

    2006-01-01

    Relying on a certain degree of abstraction, we can propose that no particular distinction exists between animate or living matter and inanimate matter. While focusing attention on some specifics, the dividing line between the two can be drawn. The most apparent distinction is in the level of structural and functional organization with the dissimilar streams of ‘energy flow’ between the observed entity and the surrounding environment. In essence, living matter is created from inanimate matter which is organized to contain internal intense energy processes and maintain lower intensity energy exchange processes with the environment. Taking internal and external energy processes into account, we contend in this paper that living matter can be referred to as matter of dissipative structure, with this structure assumed to be a common quality of all living creatures and living matter in general. Interruption of internal energy conversion processes and terminating the controlled energy exchange with the environment leads to degeneration of dissipative structure and reduction of the same to inanimate matter, (gas, liquid and/or solid inanimate substances), and ultimately what can be called ‘death.’ This concept of what we call dissipative nature can be extended from living organisms to social groups of animals, to mankind. An analogy based on the organization of matter provides a basis for a functional model of living entities. The models relies on the parallels among the three central structures of any cell (nucleus, cytoplasm and outer membrane) and the human body (central organs, body fluids along with the connective tissues, and external skin integument). This three-part structural organization may be observed almost universally in nature. It can be observed from the atomic structure to the planetary and intergalactic organizations. This similarity is corroborated by the membrane theory applied to living organisms. According to the energy nature of living matter

  13. Aging effect on the phase evolution of water-based sol-gel hydroxyapatite.

    PubMed

    Liu, Dean-Mo; Troczynski, T; Tseng, Wenjea J

    2002-02-01

    In a number of recent reports on the synthesis of sol-gel hydroxyapatite, aging of the precursor solution has been found to be critical in developing an apatitic phase. Critical aging time is required to complete reaction between Ca and P molecular precursors to form a desired intermediate complex that permits a further transformation to apatite phase under appropriate thermal treatment. In this investigation, we employed a water-based sol-gel process recently developed to fabricate hydroxyapatite at relatively low temperatures. The aging effect on apatite formation was systematically studied in terms of aging time and temperature. Experimental results show that the aging time is considerably reduced as aging temperature rises. Long-term thermal aging was unfavorable for apatite formation. The optimal aging parameters for apatite formation were experimentally determined, which was further consolidated into a phase evolution map. Aging kinetic was investigated by monitoring the variation of solution pH, following the determination of an apparent activation energy, which has a value as high as 10.35 kcal/mol, for the chemical reaction occurring upon aging. Optimal solution chemistry was elucidated based on the corresponding phase evolution map.

  14. Using groundwater age distributions to estimate the effective parameters of Fickian and non-Fickian models of solute transport

    PubMed Central

    Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater age distributions are used to estimate the parameters of Fickian, and non-Fickian, effective models of solute transport. Based on the similarities between the transport and age equations, we develop a deconvolution based approach that describes transport between two monitoring wells. We show that the proposed method gives exact estimates of the travel time distribution between two wells when the domain is stationary and that the method still provides useful information on transport when the domain is non-stationary. The method is demonstrated using idealized uniform and layered 2-D aquifers. Homogeneous transport is determined exactly and non-Fickian transport in a layered aquifer was also approximated very well, even though this example problem is shown to be scale-dependent. This work introduces a method that addresses a significant limitation of tracer tests and non-Fickian transport modeling which is the difficulty in determining the effective parameters of the transport model. PMID:25821342

  15. Dynamical network model for age-related health deficits and mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taneja, Swadhin; Mitnitski, Arnold B.; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew D.

    2016-02-01

    How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human aging. This quantitative frailty index (F ) is as good as chronological age in predicting mortality. In this paper, we use a dynamical network model of deficits to explore the effects of interactions between deficits, deficit damage and repair processes, and the connection between the F and mortality. With our model, we qualitatively reproduce Gompertz's law of increasing human mortality with age, the broadening of the F distribution with age, the characteristic nonlinear increase of the F with age, and the increased mortality of high-frailty individuals. No explicit time-dependence in damage or repair rates is needed in our model. Instead, implicit time-dependence arises through deficit interactions—so that the average deficit damage rates increase, and deficit repair rates decrease, with age. We use a simple mortality criterion, where mortality occurs when the most connected node is damaged.

  16. Comparative and alternative approaches and novel animal models for aging research

    PubMed Central

    Kristan, D. M.

    2008-01-01

    This special issue of AGE showcases powerful alternative or unconventional approaches to basic aging research, including the use of exceptionally long-lived animal model species and comparative methods from evolutionary biology. In this opening paper, we introduce several of these alternative aging research themes, including the comparative phylogenetic approach. This approach applies modern inferential methods for dissecting basic physiological and biochemical mechanisms correlated with phenotypic traits including longevity, slow aging, sustained somatic maintenance, and repair of molecular damage. Comparative methods can be used to assess the general relevance of specific aging mechanisms—including oxidative processes—to diverse animal species, as well as to assess their potential clinical relevance to humans and other mammals. We also introduce several other novel, underexploited approaches with particular relevance to biogerontology, including the use of model animal species or strains that retain natural genetic heterogeneity, studies of effects of infectious disease and parasites on aging and responses to caloric restriction, studies of reproductive aging, and naturally occurring sex differences in aging. We emphasize the importance of drawing inferences from aging phenomena in laboratory studies that can be applied to clinically relevant aging syndromes in long-lived, outbred animals, including humans. PMID:19424857

  17. Effects of extrinsic mortality on the evolution of aging: a stochastic modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Shokhirev, Maxim Nikolaievich; Johnson, Adiv Adam

    2014-01-01

    The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions, finding that high extrinsic mortality can select for the evolution of longer lifespans. To further elucidate the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of aging, we implemented a stochastic, agent-based, computational model. We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to predict which model parameters predispose populations to evolve longer or shorter lifespans in response to increased levels of predation. We report that longer lifespans evolved in the presence of rising predation if the cost of mating is relatively high and if energy is available in excess. Conversely, we found that dramatically shorter lifespans evolved when mating costs were relatively low and food was relatively scarce. We also analyzed the effects of increased predation on various parameters related to density dependence and energy allocation. Longer and shorter lifespans were accompanied by increased and decreased investments of energy into somatic maintenance, respectively. Similarly, earlier and later maturation ages were accompanied by increased and decreased energetic investments into early fecundity, respectively. Higher predation significantly decreased the total population size, enlarged the shared resource pool, and redistributed energy reserves for mature individuals. These results both corroborate and refine classical predictions, demonstrating a population-level trade-off between longevity and fecundity and identifying conditions that produce both classical and non

  18. Differential Geometry Based Multiscale Models

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-01-01

    Large chemical and biological systems such as fuel cells, ion channels, molecular motors, and viruses are of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, these complex systems in conjunction with their aquatic environment pose a fabulous challenge to theoretical description, simulation, and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry based multiscale paradigm to model complex macromolecular systems, and to put macroscopic and microscopic descriptions on an equal footing. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum mechanical description of the aquatic environment with the microscopic discrete atom-istic description of the macromolecule. Multiscale free energy functionals, or multiscale action functionals are constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales and different descriptions. Two types of aqueous macromolecular complexes, ones that are near equilibrium and others that are far from equilibrium, are considered in our formulations. We show that generalized Navier–Stokes equations for the fluid dynamics, generalized Poisson equations or generalized Poisson–Boltzmann equations for electrostatic interactions, and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived by the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows. Comparison is given to classical descriptions of the fluid and electrostatic interactions without geometric flow based micro-macro interfaces. The detailed balance of forces is emphasized in the present work. We further extend the proposed multiscale paradigm to micro-macro analysis of electrohydrodynamics, electrophoresis, fuel cells, and ion channels. We derive generalized Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations that

  19. Differential geometry based multiscale models.

    PubMed

    Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-08-01

    Large chemical and biological systems such as fuel cells, ion channels, molecular motors, and viruses are of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, these complex systems in conjunction with their aquatic environment pose a fabulous challenge to theoretical description, simulation, and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry based multiscale paradigm to model complex macromolecular systems, and to put macroscopic and microscopic descriptions on an equal footing. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum mechanical description of the aquatic environment with the microscopic discrete atomistic description of the macromolecule. Multiscale free energy functionals, or multiscale action functionals are constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales and different descriptions. Two types of aqueous macromolecular complexes, ones that are near equilibrium and others that are far from equilibrium, are considered in our formulations. We show that generalized Navier-Stokes equations for the fluid dynamics, generalized Poisson equations or generalized Poisson-Boltzmann equations for electrostatic interactions, and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived by the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows. Comparison is given to classical descriptions of the fluid and electrostatic interactions without geometric flow based micro-macro interfaces. The detailed balance of forces is emphasized in the present work. We further extend the proposed multiscale paradigm to micro-macro analysis of electrohydrodynamics, electrophoresis, fuel cells, and ion channels. We derive generalized Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations that are

  20. Differential geometry based multiscale models.

    PubMed

    Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-08-01

    Large chemical and biological systems such as fuel cells, ion channels, molecular motors, and viruses are of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, these complex systems in conjunction with their aquatic environment pose a fabulous challenge to theoretical description, simulation, and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry based multiscale paradigm to model complex macromolecular systems, and to put macroscopic and microscopic descriptions on an equal footing. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum mechanical description of the aquatic environment with the microscopic discrete atomistic description of the macromolecule. Multiscale free energy functionals, or multiscale action functionals are constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales and different descriptions. Two types of aqueous macromolecular complexes, ones that are near equilibrium and others that are far from equilibrium, are considered in our formulations. We show that generalized Navier-Stokes equations for the fluid dynamics, generalized Poisson equations or generalized Poisson-Boltzmann equations for electrostatic interactions, and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived by the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows. Comparison is given to classical descriptions of the fluid and electrostatic interactions without geometric flow based micro-macro interfaces. The detailed balance of forces is emphasized in the present work. We further extend the proposed multiscale paradigm to micro-macro analysis of electrohydrodynamics, electrophoresis, fuel cells, and ion channels. We derive generalized Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations that are

  1. A Model for Incorporating Content on Aging into the Curriculum: K-12.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackwell, David L.; Hunt, Sara Stockard

    Following a statement of the problem of putting aging education in the elementary secondary curriculum, and a review of the relevant literature, a model for developing a curriculum on aging is presented. An overview of the 3-year project, developed in Baton Rouge, Louisiana schools for grades K-12, is offered, including activities and yearly…

  2. Modeling the Phenotypic Architecture of Autism Symptoms from Time of Diagnosis to Age 6

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Georgiades, Stelios; Boyle, Michael; Szatmari, Peter; Hanna, Steven; Duku, Eric; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Bryson, Susan; Fombonne, Eric; Volden, Joanne; Mirenda, Pat; Smith, Isabel; Roberts, Wendy; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Waddell, Charlotte; Bennett, Teresa; Elsabbagh, Mayada; Thompson, Ann

    2014-01-01

    The latent class structure of autism symptoms from the time of diagnosis to age 6 years was examined in a sample of 280 children with autism spectrum disorder. Factor mixture modeling was performed on 26 algorithm items from the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised at diagnosis (Time 1) and again at age 6 (Time 2). At Time 1, a…

  3. Establishment of a model of acetaminophen-induced hepatotoxicity in different weekly-aged ICR mice.

    PubMed

    Taguchi, K; Tokuno, M; Yamasaki, K; Kadowaki, D; Seo, H; Otagiri, M

    2015-10-01

    Acetaminophen (APAP), a widely used analgesic and antipyretic drug, has the potential to cause lethal hepatotoxicity. Mice are widely used for developing murine models of APAP-induced hepatotoxicity, and many researchers have used these models for APAP-related studies including the fields of biology, pharmacology and toxicology. Although drug-induced hepatotoxicity is dependent on a number of factors (species, gender and age), very few studies have investigated the effect of aging on APAP hepatotoxicity. In this study, we evaluated the effect of age on APAP-induced hepatotoxicity in different weekly-aged mice to establish a model of APAP-induced hepatotoxicity that is an accurate reflection of general experimental conditions. Male ICR mice 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 weeks old were given APAP intraperitoneally, and mortality, hepatic damage and the plasma concentration of APAP metabolites were evaluated. It was found that younger male ICR mice were relatively resistant to hepatotoxicity induced by intraperitoneal APAP administration. In addition, the APAP-glucuronide concentration in plasma remained essentially the same among the differently-aged mice, while APAP-sulfate levels were dramatically decreased in an age-dependent manner. Thus, it is recommended that mice of the same ages be used in studies related to APAP-induced hepatotoxixity. These results provide evidence in support of not only the age-related changes in susceptibility to APAP-derived hepatotoxicity in mice but also in developing mouse models for APAP-related studies.

  4. Age Differences within Secular IQ Trends: An Individual Growth Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanaya, Tomoe; Ceci, Stephen J.; Scullin, Matthew H.

    2005-01-01

    Age differences within the yo-yo trend in IQ, caused when aging norms that produce inflated scores are replaced with new norms, were examined using longitudinal WISC, WISC-R and WISC-III records of students tested for special education services from 10 school districts. Descriptive and individual growth modeling analyses revealed that while the…

  5. Aging Well and the Environment: Toward an Integrative Model and Research Agenda for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wahl, Hans-Werner; Iwarsson, Susanne; Oswald, Frank

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: The effects of the physical-spatial-technical environment on aging well have been overlooked both conceptually and empirically. In the spirit of M. Powell Lawton's seminal work on aging and environment, this article attempts to rectify this situation by suggesting a new model of how older people interact with their…

  6. A Diffusion Model Analysis of the Effects of Aging on Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratcliff, Roger; Thapar, Anjali; McKoon, Gail

    2004-01-01

    The effects of aging on response time were examined in a recognition memory experiment with young, college age subjects and older, 60-75 year old subjects. The older subjects were slower than the young subjects but almost as accurate. Ratcliff's (1978) diffusion model was fit to the data and it provided a good account of response times, their…

  7. Business model for sensor-based fall recognition systems.

    PubMed

    Fachinger, Uwe; Schöpke, Birte

    2014-01-01

    AAL systems require, in addition to sophisticated and reliable technology, adequate business models for their launch and sustainable establishment. This paper presents the basic features of alternative business models for a sensor-based fall recognition system which was developed within the context of the "Lower Saxony Research Network Design of Environments for Ageing" (GAL). The models were developed parallel to the R&D process with successive adaptation and concretization. An overview of the basic features (i.e. nine partial models) of the business model is given and the mutual exclusive alternatives for each partial model are presented. The partial models are interconnected and the combinations of compatible alternatives lead to consistent alternative business models. However, in the current state, only initial concepts of alternative business models can be deduced. The next step will be to gather additional information to work out more detailed models.

  8. A Network-Based Approach on Elucidating the Multi-Faceted Nature of Chronological Aging in S. cerevisiae

    PubMed Central

    Borklu Yucel, Esra; Ulgen, Kutlu O.

    2011-01-01

    Background Cellular mechanisms leading to aging and therefore increasing susceptibility to age-related diseases are a central topic of research since aging is the ultimate, yet not understood mechanism of the fate of a cell. Studies with model organisms have been conducted to ellucidate these mechanisms, and chronological aging of yeast has been extensively used as a model for oxidative stress and aging of postmitotic tissues in higher eukaryotes. Methodology/Principal Findings The chronological aging network of yeast was reconstructed by integrating protein-protein interaction data with gene ontology terms. The reconstructed network was then statistically “tuned” based on the betweenness centrality values of the nodes to compensate for the computer automated method. Both the originally reconstructed and tuned networks were subjected to topological and modular analyses. Finally, an ultimate “heart” network was obtained via pooling the step specific key proteins, which resulted from the decomposition of the linear paths depicting several signaling routes in the tuned network. Conclusions/Significance The reconstructed networks are of scale-free and hierarchical nature, following a power law model with γ  =  1.49. The results of modular and topological analyses verified that the tuning method was successful. The significantly enriched gene ontology terms of the modular analysis confirmed also that the multifactorial nature of chronological aging was captured by the tuned network. The interplay between various signaling pathways such as TOR, Akt/PKB and cAMP/Protein kinase A was summarized in the “heart” network originated from linear path analysis. The deletion of four genes, TCB3, SNA3, PST2 and YGR130C, was found to increase the chronological life span of yeast. The reconstructed networks can also give insight about the effect of other cellular machineries on chronological aging by targeting different signaling pathways in the linear path analysis

  9. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Brian H.; Marioni, Riccardo E.; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J.; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S.; Just, Allan C.; Demerath, Ellen W.; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R.; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P.; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; Murabito, Joanne M.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G.; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C.; Price, Timothy R.; Singleton, Andrew B.; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M.; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R.; McRae, Allan F.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E.; Lu, Ake T.; Tsao, Philip S.; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E.; Carty, Cara L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Spector, Tim D.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs,