Science.gov

Sample records for age model based

  1. Lithium battery aging model based on Dakin's degradation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baghdadi, Issam; Briat, Olivier; Delétage, Jean-Yves; Gyan, Philippe; Vinassa, Jean-Michel

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes and validates a calendar and power cycling aging model for two different lithium battery technologies. The model development is based on previous SIMCAL and SIMSTOCK project data. In these previous projects, the effect of the battery state of charge, temperature and current magnitude on aging was studied on a large panel of different battery chemistries. In this work, data are analyzed using Dakin's degradation approach. In fact, the logarithms of battery capacity fade and the increase in resistance evolves linearly over aging. The slopes identified from straight lines correspond to battery aging rates. Thus, a battery aging rate expression function of aging factors was deduced and found to be governed by Eyring's law. The proposed model simulates the capacity fade and resistance increase as functions of the influencing aging factors. Its expansion using Taylor series was consistent with semi-empirical models based on the square root of time, which are widely studied in the literature. Finally, the influence of the current magnitude and temperature on aging was simulated. Interestingly, the aging rate highly increases with decreasing and increasing temperature for the ranges of -5 °C-25 °C and 25 °C-60 °C, respectively.

  2. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  3. Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deller, Sean; Rabadi, Ghaith A.; Bell, Michael I.; Bowling, Shannon R.; Tolk, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

  4. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose; Kulkarni, Chetan; Biswas, Gautam; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

  5. Comprehensive Equivalent Circuit Based Modeling and Model Based Management of Aged Lithium ion Batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tong, Shijie

    Energy storage is one of society's grand challenges for the 21st century. Lithium ion batteries (LIBs) are widely used in mobile devices, transportation, and stationary energy storages due to lowering cost combined with excellent power/energy density as well as cycle durability. The need for a battery management system (BMS) arises from a demand to improve cycle life, assure safety, and optimize the full pack performance. In this work, we proposed a model based battery on-line state of charge (SoC) and state of health (SoH) estimator for LIBs. The estimator incorporates a comprehensive Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) as reference, an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) as state observer, a Recursive Least Square (RLS) algorithm as parameter identifier, and Parameter Varying Approach (PVA) based optimization algorithms for the parameter function regressions. The developed adaptive estimator was applied to a 10kW smart grid energy storage application using retired electric vehicle batteries. The estimator exhibits a high numerical efficiency as well as an excellent accuracy in estimating SoC and SoH. The estimator also provides a novel method to optimize the correlation between battery open circuit voltage (OCV) and SoC, which further improves states estimation accuracy.

  6. In vitro 3-D model based on extending time of culture for studying chronological epidermis aging.

    PubMed

    Dos Santos, Morgan; Metral, Elodie; Boher, Aurélie; Rousselle, Patricia; Thepot, Amélie; Damour, Odile

    2015-09-01

    Skin aging is a complex phenomenon in which several mechanisms operate simultaneously. Among them, intrinsic aging is a time-dependent process, which leads to gradual skin changes affecting its structure and function such as thinning down of both epidermal and dermal compartments and a flattening and fragility of the dermo-epidermal junction. Today, several approaches have been proposed for the generation of aged skin in vitro, including skin explants from aged donors and three-dimensional skin equivalent treated by aging-inducing chemical compounds or engineered with human cells isolated from aged donors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new in vitro model of aging based on skin equivalent demonstrating the same phenotypic changes that were observed in chronological aging. By using prolonged culture as a proxy for cellular aging, we extended to 120 days the culture time of a skin equivalent model based on collagen-glycosaminoglycan-chitosan porous polymer and engineered with human skin cells from photo-protected sites of young donors. Morphological, immunohistological and ultrastructural analysis at different time points of the culture allowed characterizing the phenotypic changes observed in our model in comparison to samples of non photo-exposed normal human skin from different ages. We firstly confirmed that long-term cultured skin equivalents are still morphologically consistent and functionally active even after 120 days of culture. However, similar to in vivo chronological skin aging a significant decrease of the epidermis thickness as well as the number of keratinocyte expressing proliferation marker Ki67 are observed in extended culture time skin equivalent. Epidermal differentiation markers loricrin, filaggrin, involucrin and transglutaminase, also strongly decreased. Ultrastructural analysis of basement membrane showed typical features of aged skin such as duplication of lamina densa and alterations of hemidesmosomes. Moreover, the

  7. The Source of Adult Age Differences in Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

    2006-01-01

    Event-based prospective memory involves remembering to perform an action in response to a particular future event. Normal younger and older adults performed event-based prospective memory tasks in 2 experiments. The authors applied a formal multinomial processing tree model of prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004) to disentangle age differences…

  8. Human iPSC-based modeling of late-onset disease via progerin-induced aging.

    PubMed

    Miller, Justine D; Ganat, Yosif M; Kishinevsky, Sarah; Bowman, Robert L; Liu, Becky; Tu, Edmund Y; Mandal, Pankaj K; Vera, Elsa; Shim, Jae-won; Kriks, Sonja; Taldone, Tony; Fusaki, Noemi; Tomishima, Mark J; Krainc, Dimitri; Milner, Teresa A; Rossi, Derrick J; Studer, Lorenz

    2013-12-01

    Reprogramming somatic cells to induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) resets their identity back to an embryonic age and, thus, presents a significant hurdle for modeling late-onset disorders. In this study, we describe a strategy for inducing aging-related features in human iPSC-derived lineages and apply it to the modeling of Parkinson's disease (PD). Our approach involves expression of progerin, a truncated form of lamin A associated with premature aging. We found that expression of progerin in iPSC-derived fibroblasts and neurons induces multiple aging-related markers and characteristics, including dopamine-specific phenotypes such as neuromelanin accumulation. Induced aging in PD iPSC-derived dopamine neurons revealed disease phenotypes that require both aging and genetic susceptibility, such as pronounced dendrite degeneration, progressive loss of tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) expression, and enlarged mitochondria or Lewy-body-precursor inclusions. Thus, our study suggests that progerin-induced aging can be used to reveal late-onset age-related disease features in hiPSC-based disease models. PMID:24315443

  9. Human iPSC-based Modeling of Late-Onset Disease via Progerin-induced Aging

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Justine D.; Ganat, Yosif M.; Kishinevsky, Sarah; Bowman, Robert L.; Liu, Becky; Tu, Edmund Y.; Mandal, Pankaj; Vera, Elsa; Shim, Jae-won; Kriks, Sonja; Taldone, Tony; Fusaki, Noemi; Tomishima, Mark J.; Krainc, Dimitri; Milner, Teresa A.; Rossi, Derrick J.; Studer, Lorenz

    2014-01-01

    Summary Reprogramming somatic cells to induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), resets their identity back to an embryonic age, and thus presents a significant hurdle for modeling late-onset disorders. In this study, we describe a strategy for inducing aging-related features in human iPSC-derived lineages and apply it to the modeling of Parkinson’s disease (PD). Our approach involves expression of progerin, a truncated form of lamin A associated with premature aging. We found that expression of progerin in iPSC-derived fibroblasts and neurons induces multiple aging-related markers and characteristics, including dopamine-specific phenotypes such as neuromelanin accumulation. Induced aging in PD-iPSC-derived dopamine neurons revealed disease phenotypes that require both aging and genetic susceptibility, such as pronounced dendrite degeneration, progressive loss of tyrosine-hydroxylase (TH) expression and enlarged mitochondria or Lewy body-precursor inclusions. Thus, our study suggests that progerin-induced aging can be used to reveal late-onset age-related disease features in hiPSC-based disease models. PMID:24315443

  10. Lens opacity based modelling of the age-related straylight increase.

    PubMed

    Rozema, Jos J; Sanchez, Victoria; Artal, Natalia; Gramajo, Ana L; Torres, Eduardo; Luna, Jose D; Iribarren, Rafael; Tassignon, Marie-José; Juarez, Claudio P

    2015-12-01

    This work studies ethnic and geographical differences in the age-related straylight increase by means of a stochastic model and unpublished lens opacity data of 559 residents of Villa Maria (Argentina), as well as data of 912 Indonesian subjects published previously by Husain et al. For both cohorts the prevalence of each type and grade of lens opacity was determined as a function of age, from which a stochastic model was derived capable of simulating the lens opacity prevalence for both populations. These simulated lens opacity data were then converted to estimated straylight by means of an equation derived from previously recorded data of 107 eyes with varying degrees of cataract. Based on these opacity templates 2500 random sets of subject age and lens opacity data were generated by the stochastic model for each dataset, from which estimated straylight could be calculated. For the Argentinian data the estimated straylight was found to closely resemble the published models for age-related straylight increase. For younger eyes the straylight variation of the model was the same as what was previously published (in both cases ±0.200logunits), which doubled in size for older eyes. For the Indonesian data, however, this age-related straylight increase was found to be fundamentally different from the published age model. This suggests that current normative curves for age-related straylight increase may not always be appropriate for non-European populations, and that the inter-individual straylight variations in young, healthy eyes may possibly be due to variations in lens opacities. PMID:26459146

  11. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schiff, C.J.; Kaufman, D.S.; Wallace, K.L.; Werner, A.; Ku, T.-L.; Brown, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS 14C ages, along with the 137Cs and 210Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of the core, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The selected age model is based on a mixed-effect regression that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages ??105 yr (95% confidence intervals). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7/500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of one every 130 yr. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L; Werner, A; Ku, T L; Brown, T A

    2007-02-25

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.

  13. Rule-Based Cell Systems Model of Aging using Feedback Loop Motifs Mediated by Stress Responses

    PubMed Central

    Kriete, Andres; Bosl, William J.; Booker, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    Investigating the complex systems dynamics of the aging process requires integration of a broad range of cellular processes describing damage and functional decline co-existing with adaptive and protective regulatory mechanisms. We evolve an integrated generic cell network to represent the connectivity of key cellular mechanisms structured into positive and negative feedback loop motifs centrally important for aging. The conceptual network is casted into a fuzzy-logic, hybrid-intelligent framework based on interaction rules assembled from a priori knowledge. Based upon a classical homeostatic representation of cellular energy metabolism, we first demonstrate how positive-feedback loops accelerate damage and decline consistent with a vicious cycle. This model is iteratively extended towards an adaptive response model by incorporating protective negative-feedback loop circuits. Time-lapse simulations of the adaptive response model uncover how transcriptional and translational changes, mediated by stress sensors NF-κB and mTOR, counteract accumulating damage and dysfunction by modulating mitochondrial respiration, metabolic fluxes, biosynthesis, and autophagy, crucial for cellular survival. The model allows consideration of lifespan optimization scenarios with respect to fitness criteria using a sensitivity analysis. Our work establishes a novel extendable and scalable computational approach capable to connect tractable molecular mechanisms with cellular network dynamics underlying the emerging aging phenotype. PMID:20585546

  14. Aging Face Recognition: A Hierarchical Learning Model Based on Local Patterns Selection.

    PubMed

    Li, Zhifeng; Gong, Dihong; Li, Xuelong; Tao, Dacheng

    2016-05-01

    Aging face recognition refers to matching the same person's faces across different ages, e.g., matching a person's older face to his (or her) younger one, which has many important practical applications, such as finding missing children. The major challenge of this task is that facial appearance is subject to significant change during the aging process. In this paper, we propose to solve the problem with a hierarchical model based on two-level learning. At the first level, effective features are learned from low-level microstructures, based on our new feature descriptor called local pattern selection (LPS). The proposed LPS descriptor greedily selects low-level discriminant patterns in a way, such that intra-user dissimilarity is minimized. At the second level, higher level visual information is further refined based on the output from the first level. To evaluate the performance of our new method, we conduct extensive experiments on the MORPH data set (the largest face aging data set available in the public domain), which show a significant improvement in accuracy over the state-of-the-art methods. PMID:26930681

  15. Testing exhumation models using PTt paths: an Alpine perspective based on deformation ages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reddy, S.; Butler, R.; Wheeler, J.; Cliff, B.; Freeman, S.; Biggs, A.

    2005-12-01

    Geochronological data are now commonly used to establish the timing and rates of exhumation of high pressure metamorphic rocks, critical for testing geodynamic models of orogenic belts. Such approaches must be used with care. Ages of peak pressure metamorphic assemblages allied to younger cooling ages give a general insight into the rates of exhumation when tied to PT paths. However, the results of this workflow are difficult to relate to the kinematic history and therefore maybe of limited use in the critical testing of exhumation models. An alternative strategy is to date directly synkinematic mineral phases in characterised deformation zones. Examples are drawn from the deformed and variably subducted "European" continental crust now exposed in the Western Alps to illustrate this, chiefly using Rb-Sr mica dating, applied to greenschist facies shear zones. Some structures are synchronously active for c. 100km along strike (e.g. the regional "retrocharriage" shear system of the Eastern Brianconnais: 34 Ma). However, UHP terrains of the basement massifs attained peak pressures and were exhumed diachronously (38 Ma - 32 Ma). These results indicate that tectono-metamorphic histories based on single orogenic transects may give misleading pictures of geodynamic evolution. In an Alpine context it appears that exhumation of UHP and shallower parts of the evolving continental subduction channel occurred as variably detached flakes rather than relate to the dynamics of larger scale plate processes.

  16. Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

  17. Touchscreen-Based Cognitive Tasks Reveal Age-Related Impairment in a Primate Aging Model, the Grey Mouse Lemur (Microcebus murinus)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Mouse lemurs are suggested to represent promising novel non-human primate models for aging research. However, standardized and cross-taxa cognitive testing methods are still lacking. Touchscreen-based testing procedures have proven high stimulus control and reliability in humans and rodents. The aim of this study was to adapt these procedures to mouse lemurs, thereby exploring the effect of age. We measured appetitive learning and cognitive flexibility of two age groups by applying pairwise visual discrimination (PD) and reversal learning (PDR) tasks. On average, mouse lemurs needed 24 days of training before starting with the PD task. Individual performances in PD and PDR tasks correlate significantly, suggesting that individual learning performance is unrelated to the respective task. Compared to the young, aged mouse lemurs showed impairments in both PD and PDR tasks. They needed significantly more trials to reach the task criteria. A much higher inter-individual variation in old than in young adults was revealed. Furthermore, in the PDR task, we found a significantly higher perseverance in aged compared to young adults, indicating an age-related deficit in cognitive flexibility. This study presents the first touchscreen-based data on the cognitive skills and age-related dysfunction in mouse lemurs and provides a unique basis to study mechanisms of inter-individual variation. It furthermore opens exciting perspectives for comparative approaches in aging, personality, and evolutionary research. PMID:25299046

  18. A holistic aging model for Li(NiMnCo)O2 based 18650 lithium-ion batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmalstieg, Johannes; Käbitz, Stefan; Ecker, Madeleine; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2014-07-01

    Knowledge on lithium-ion battery aging and lifetime estimation is a fundamental aspect for successful market introduction in high-priced goods like electric mobility. This paper illustrates the parameterization of a holistic aging model from accelerated aging tests. More than 60 cells of the same type are tested to analyze different impact factors. In calendar aging tests three temperatures and various SOC are applied to the batteries. For cycle aging tests especially different cycle depths and mean SOC are taken into account. Capacity loss and resistance increase are monitored as functions of time and charge throughput during the tests. From these data physical based functions are obtained, giving a mathematical description of aging. To calculate the stress factors like temperature or voltage, an impedance based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model. The model accepts power and current profiles as input, furthermore an ambient air temperature profile can be applied. Various drive cycles and battery management strategies can be tested and optimized using the lifetime prognosis of this tool. With the validation based on different realistic driving profiles and temperatures, a robust foundation is provided.

  19. Age estimation based on pelvic ossification using regression models from conventional radiography.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-Ai; Fan, Fei; Deng, Zhen-Hua

    2016-07-01

    To establish regression models for age estimation from the combination of the ossification of iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. One thousand three hundred and seventy-nine conventional pelvic radiographs at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to measure the value of estimation of 18 years of age with the classification scheme for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. Regression analysis was performed, and formulas for calculating approximate chronological age according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity were developed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were above 0.9 (p < 0.001), indicating a good prediction of the grading systems, and the cubic regression model was found to have the highest R-square value (R (2) = 0.744 for female and R (2) = 0.753 for male). The present classification scheme for apophyseal iliac crest ossification and the ischial tuberosity may be used for age estimation. And the present established cubic regression model according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity can be used for age estimation. PMID:27169673

  20. Assessment of a ground water flow model of the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, using carbon-14-based ages and paleohydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.E.; Buapeng, S.

    1996-01-01

    A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age is corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the

  1. Modeling Site-Based Decision Making: School Practices in the Age of Accountability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bauer, Scott C.; Bogotch, Ira E.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The primary purpose is to present empirical measures of variables relating to practices engaged in by site-based teams, and then to use these variables to test a model predicting significant outcomes of site-based decision making. The practice variables of site-based management (SBM) teams are essential in promoting research within a…

  2. Age models and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marwan, N.; Rehfeld, K.; Goswami, B.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    The usefulness of a proxy record is largely dictated by accuracy and precision of its age model, i.e., its depth-age relationship. Only if age model uncertainties are minimized correlations or lead-lag relations can be reliably studied. Moreover, due to different dating strategies (14C, U-series, OSL dating, or counting of varves), dating errors or diverging age models lead to difficulties in comparing different palaeo proxy records. Uncertainties in the age model are even more important if an exact dating is necessary in order to calculate, e.g., data series of flux or rates (like dust flux records, pollen deposition rates). Several statistical approaches exist to handle the dating uncertainties themselves and to estimate the age-depth relationship. Nevertheless, linear interpolation is still the most commonly used method for age modeling. The uncertainties of a certain event at a given time due to the dating errors are often even completely neglected. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering dating errors and implications for the interpretation of variations in palaeo-climate proxy records from stalagmites (U-series dated). We present a simple approach for estimating age models and their confidence levels based on Monte Carlo methods and non-linear interpolation. This novel algorithm also allows for removing age reversals. Our approach delivers a time series of a proxy record with a value range for each age depth also, if desired, on an equidistant time axis. The algorithm is implemented in interactive scripts for use with MATLAB®, Octave, and FreeMat.

  3. Linking a modified EPIC-based growth model (UPGM) with a component-based watershed model (AGES-W)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural models and decision support systems (DSS) for assessing water use and management are increasingly being applied to diverse geographic regions at different scales. This requires models that can simulate different crops, however, very few plant growth models are available that “easily” ...

  4. Evidence-Based Systematic Review: Effects of Different Service Delivery Models on Communication Outcomes for Elementary School-Age Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cirrin, Frank M.; Schooling, Tracy L.; Nelson, Nickola W.; Diehl, Sylvia F.; Flynn, Perry F.; Staskowski, Maureen; Torrey, T. Zoann; Adamczyk, Deborah F.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to conduct an evidence-based systematic review (EBSR) of peer-reviewed articles from the last 30 years about the effect of different service delivery models on speech-language intervention outcomes for elementary school-age students. Method: A computer search of electronic databases was conducted to…

  5. Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins, L.G., Jr.; Pine, William E., III; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  6. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children. PMID:27215601

  7. Testing Models of Psychopathology in Preschool-aged Children Using a Structured Interview-based Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Dougherty, Lea R.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Carlson, Gabrielle A.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2014-01-01

    A number of studies have found that broadband internalizing and externalizing factors provide a parsimonious framework for understanding the structure of psychopathology across childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. However, few of these studies have examined psychopathology in young children, and several recent studies have found support for alternative models, including a bi-factor model with common and specific factors. The present study used parents’ (typically mothers’) reports on a diagnostic interview in a community sample of 3-year old children (n=541; 53.9 % male) to compare the internalizing-externalizing latent factor model with a bi-factor model. The bi-factor model provided a better fit to the data. To test the concurrent validity of this solution, we examined associations between this model and paternal reports and laboratory observations of child temperament. The internalizing factor was associated with low levels of surgency and high levels of fear; the externalizing factor was associated with high levels of surgency and disinhibition and low levels of effortful control; and the common factor was associated with high levels of surgency and negative affect and low levels of effortful control. These results suggest that psychopathology in preschool-aged children may be explained by a single, common factor influencing nearly all disorders and unique internalizing and externalizing factors. These findings indicate that shared variance across internalizing and externalizing domains is substantial and are consistent with recent suggestions that emotion regulation difficulties may be a common vulnerability for a wide array of psychopathology. PMID:24652485

  8. A physics based reduced order aging model for lithium-ion cells with phase change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gambhire, Priya; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Khandelwal, Ashish; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Yeo, Taejung; Doo, Seokgwang

    2014-12-01

    The electrochemical model has the potential to provide a robust and accurate battery management system, but is not the preferred choice as it involves solving non-linear, coupled partial differential equations. In the present work, a model order reduction of the complete electrochemical model for a lithium ion cell with phase change electrodes is carried out. The phase change phenomenon is described using a simple, concentration-dependent diffusivity derived from mixture rules. This reduced order model (ROM) is validated with experimental data from literature. The applicability of the model to capture the atypical behavior of the phase change electrode system is demonstrated. Using the cell response from ROM, charge-discharge asymmetry and path dependence in a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cell are explored in detail. In addition, side reaction kinetics and solid electrolyte interphase formation are included in the ROM framework to enhance its capability to predict cell aging. The model is used to investigate capacity losses occurring in a phase change electrode cell. Insights from these results are used to suggest cell operating guidelines for maximizing utilization.

  9. A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

    PubMed

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. PMID:23357512

  10. Thymulin-Based Gene Therapy and Pituitary Function in Animal Models of Aging

    PubMed Central

    Reggiani, Paula C.; Poch, Brenda; Cónsole, Gloria M.; Rimoldi, Omar J.; Schwerdt, Jose I.; Tüngler, Victoria; Garcia-Bravo, Margarita M.; Dardenne, Mireille; Goya, Rodolfo G.

    2011-01-01

    Thymulin is a thymic hormone exclusively produced by the thymic epithelial cells. After its discovery and initial characterization in the 1970s, it was demonstrated that thymulin production and secretion is strongly influenced by the neuroendocrine system. Conversely, a growing core of information, to be reviewed here, points to thymulin as a hypophysiotropic peptide. Additionally, thymulin was shown to possess anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties in the brain. In recent years, a synthetic DNA sequence coding for a biologically active analog of thymulin, metFTS, was constructed and cloned in different adenoviral vectors. These include bidirectional regulatable Tet-Off vector systems that simultaneously express metFTS and green fluorescent protein and that can be downregulated reversibly by the addition of the antibiotic doxycycline. A number of recent studies suggest that thymulin gene therapy may be a suitable therapeutic strategy to prevent some of the endocrine and reproductive alterations that typically appear in congenitally athymic (nude) mice, taken as a suitable model of neuroendocrine and reproductive aging. The present article briefly reviews the literature on the physiology of the thymulin-pituitary axis as well as on the new molecular tools available to exploit the therapeutic potential of thymulin. PMID:21952687

  11. Developing a Community-Based Participatory Research Model to Engage Transition Age Youth Using Mental Health Service in Research

    PubMed Central

    Lincoln, Alisa K.; Borg, Ryan; Delman, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    We present a model for the development and conduct of a Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR) project with transition age youth (TAY) mental health service users. CBPR frameworks can facilitate equitable partnerships and meaningful inclusion, but have not been fully drawn-upon in mental health research. The model included TAY as trained research associates involved in every aspect of the research process. We describe the development of the project, creation of the research team, training, the design and conduct of the study, and challenges faced. The methods developed successfully provided support for the meaningful participation of TAY in the project. PMID:25423247

  12. An Age-Dependent Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Model for the Organophosphorus Insecticide Chlorpyrifos in the Preweanling Rat

    SciTech Connect

    Timchalk, Chuck; Kousba, Ahmed A.; Poet, Torka S.

    2007-08-01

    Juvenile rats are more susceptible than adults to the acute toxicity of organophosphorus insecticides like chlorpyrifos (CPF). Age- and dose-dependent differences in metabolism may be responsible. Of importance is CYP450 activation and detoxification of CPF to chlorpyrifos-oxon (CPF-oxon) and trichloropyridinol (TCP), as well as B-esterase (cholinesterase; ChE) and A-esterase (PON-1) detoxification of CPF-oxon to TCP. In the current study, a modified physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model incorporating age-dependent changes in CYP450, PON-1, and tissue ChE levels for rats was developed. In this model, age was used as a dependent function to estimate body weight which was then used to allometrically scale both metabolism and tissue ChE levels. Model simulations suggest that preweanling rats are particularly sensitive to CPF toxicity, with levels of CPF-oxon in blood and brain disproportionately increasing, relative to the response in adult rats. This age-dependent non-linear increase in CPF-oxon concentration may potentially result from the depletion of non-target B-esterases, and a lower PON-1 metabolic capacity in younger animals. These results indicate that the PBPK/PD model behaves consistently with the general understanding of CPF toxicity, pharmacokinetics and tissue ChE inhibition in neonatal and adult rats. Hence, this model represents an important starting point for developing a computational model to assess the neurotoxic potential of environmentally relevant organophosphate exposures in infants and children.

  13. Evidence-based practice in an age of relativism: toward a model for practice.

    PubMed

    McNeill, Ted

    2006-04-01

    Evidence-based practice (EBP) is considered a hallmark of excellence in clinical practice. However, many social workers are uncertain about how to implement this approach to practice. EBP involves integrating clinical expertise and values with the best available evidence from systematic research while simultaneously considering the client's values and expectations--all within the parameters of the agency mandate and any legislative or environmental considerations. This article explores the feasibility of EBP and attempts to steer a course between those who advocate an EBP model that may appear unachievable to many clinicians and those who dismiss it outright on philosophical grounds. Five areas that affect the feasibility of EBP are explored: misconceptions about EBP, confusion about philosophical issues, questions about the quality of evidence needed to support EBP, substantive knowledge domains required for practice, and issues related to knowledge transfer and translation. An important theme of this analysis is the central role of clinical judgment in all aspects of EBP. PMID:16858920

  14. An updated model for nitrate uptake modelling in plants. II. Assessment of active root involvement in nitrate uptake based on integrated root system age: measured versus modelled outputs

    PubMed Central

    Malagoli, Philippe; Le Deunff, Erwan

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims An updated version of a mechanistic structural–functional model was developed to predict nitrogen (N) uptake throughout the growth cycle by a crop of winter oilseed rape, Brassica napus, grown under field conditions. Methods The functional component of the model derives from a revisited conceptual framework that combines the thermodynamic Flow–Force interpretation of nitrate uptake isotherms and environmental and in planta effects on nitrate influx. Estimation of the root biomass (structural component) is based upon a combination of root mapping along the soil depth profile in the field and a relationship between the specific root length and external nitrate concentration. The root biomass contributing actively to N uptake was determined by introduction of an integrated root system age that allows assignment of a root absorption capacity at a specific age of the root. Key Results Simulations were well matched to measured data of N taken up under field conditions for three levels of N fertilization. The model outputs indicated that the two topsoil layers (0–30 and 30–60 cm) contained 75–88 % of the total root length and biomass, and accounted for 90–95 % of N taken up at harvest. Conclusions This conceptual framework provides a model of nitrate uptake that is able to respond to external nitrate fluctuations at both functional and structural levels. PMID:24709791

  15. An updated model for nitrate uptake modelling in plants. II. Assessment of active root involvement in nitrate uptake based on integrated root system age: measured versus modelled outputs.

    PubMed

    Malagoli, Philippe; Le Deunff, Erwan

    2014-05-01

    Background and Aims An updated version of a mechanistic structural-functional model was developed to predict nitrogen (N) uptake throughout the growth cycle by a crop of winter oilseed rape, Brassica napus, grown under field conditions. Methods The functional component of the model derives from a revisited conceptual framework that combines the thermodynamic Flow-Force interpretation of nitrate uptake isotherms and environmental and in planta effects on nitrate influx. Estimation of the root biomass (structural component) is based upon a combination of root mapping along the soil depth profile in the field and a relationship between the specific root length and external nitrate concentration. The root biomass contributing actively to N uptake was determined by introduction of an integrated root system age that allows assignment of a root absorption capacity at a specific age of the root. Key Results Simulations were well matched to measured data of N taken up under field conditions for three levels of N fertilization. The model outputs indicated that the two topsoil layers (0-30 and 30-60 cm) contained 75-88 % of the total root length and biomass, and accounted for 90-95 % of N taken up at harvest. Conclusions This conceptual framework provides a model of nitrate uptake that is able to respond to external nitrate fluctuations at both functional and structural levels. PMID:24709791

  16. Designing across ages: Multi-agent-based models and learning electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, Pratim

    Electricity is regarded as one of the most challenging topics for students at all levels -- middle school -- college (Cohen, Eylon, & Ganiel, 1983; Belcher & Olbert, 2003; Eylon & Ganiel, 1990; Steinberg et al., 1985). Several researchers have suggested that naive misconceptions about electricity stem from a deep incommensurability (Slotta & Chi, 2006; Chi, 2005) or incompatibility (Chi, Slotta & Leauw, 1994; Reiner, Slotta, Chi, & Resnick, 2000) between naive and expert knowledge structures. I first present an alternative theoretical framework that adopts an emergent levels-based perspective as proposed by Wilensky & Resnick (1999). From this perspective, macro-level phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as behavior of linear electric circuits, can be conceived of as emergent from simple, body-syntonic interactions between electrons and ions in a circuit. I argue that adopting such a perspective enables us to reconceive commonly noted misconceptions in electricity as behavioral evidences of "slippage between levels" -- i.e., these misconceptions appear when otherwise productive knowledge elements are sometimes inappropriately activated due to certain macro-level phenomenological cues only -- and, that the same knowledge elements when activated due to phenomenological cues at both micro- and macro-levels, can engender a deeper, expert-like understanding. I will then introduce NIELS (NetLogo Investigations In Electromagnetism, Sengupta & Wilensky, 2006, 2008, 2009), a low-threshold high-ceiling (LTHC) learning environment of multi-agent-based computational models that represent phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as the behavior of linear electric circuits, as emergent. I also present results from implementations of NIELS in 5th, 7th and 12th grade classrooms that show the following: (a) how leveraging certain "design elements" over others in NIELS models can create new phenomenological cues, which in turn can be

  17. Bias in Crustal Growth Models Based on age and Isotopic Composition of Detrital Zircon: The Role of Zircon Fertility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samson, S. D.

    2011-12-01

    Early models of continental crustal growth based on the ages of crystallization of granitoids were abandoned once it was understood that many silicic magmas form by remelting pre-existing crustal materials. Subsequent crustal evolution models focused on the age and whole-rock isotopic composition of granitoids or on the isotopic composition of fine-grained clastic sedimentary rocks; rare studies examined both igneous and sedimentary rock compositions. Recently there has been a resurgence of emphasizing major crustal growth events by compiling the ages of detrital zircon. This has led to interesting speculations, such as some supercontinent forming events represent the world's largest orogenies and periods of crustal growth, that there may have been significant hiatuses of crustal production in geologic time, and that there was episodicity in magma generation that is asynchronous with apparent growth peaks based on isotopic compositions of sedimentary rocks. Some workers have emphasized that the apparent trends observed in detrital zircon ages could be a function of selective preservation rather than a strict indication of the timing of major magmatic episodes. Others have noted that relying on ages of detrital crystals is equivalent to basing growth models on granitoid ages and does not discriminate between juvenile magmas and melts formed by complete crustal recycling. More sophisticated approaches involve dating detrital zircon crystals followed by determining their hafnium isotopic composition thereby assessing if the zircon crystallized from a juvenile or recycled magma. While this latter approach holds promise for constraining episodes of juvenile crustal construction it is based on the assumption that the abundance of detrital zircon of a certain age directly reflects the volume of magma generated at that time. In other words, the assumption is implicitly made that the 'zircon fertility' of most magmas is uniform. The assumption of uniform fertility is

  18. BUILDING REALISTIC BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS FOR PREDICTING SUSCEPTIBILITY IN THE AGED POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Detoxification and elimination of xenobiotics is a major function of the liver and is important in maintaining the metabolic homeostasis of the organism. The degree to which aging affects hepatic metabolism is not known. The expression of XMEs, in part, determines the fate of the...

  19. "Model age-based" and "copy when uncertain" biases in children's social learning of a novel task.

    PubMed

    Wood, Lara A; Harrison, Rachel A; Lucas, Amanda J; McGuigan, Nicola; Burdett, Emily R R; Whiten, Andrew

    2016-10-01

    Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N=140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children's continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of model. PMID:27371768

  20. Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose; Saxena, Abhinav; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai F.

    2011-01-01

    An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

  1. Maximum Age Predictions for Optical Dating on Mars Based on Dose/Depth Models and Martian Meteorite Compositions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franklund, R. T.; Lepper, K.

    2004-12-01

    A fundamental need in the Mars exploration portfolio is in-situ absolute dating. Optical dating has been proposed for determining the age of Mars surface features and landforms as well as the rates of martian surface processes. On Earth, the method is employed for Quaternary studies because the technique currently has a terrestrial maximum age limit of approximately 350 ka. This maximum age limit is a function of the saturation dose of the dosimeter material (silicate sediments) and the local ionizing radiation dose rate. The sources of ionizing radiation germane to optical dating are K, Rb, U, Th in the sediment/soil environment and cosmic rays. On Mars the near surface dose rate will be dominated by cosmic rays, however, at depth the decay of radioisotopes will be the principle contributor of ionizing radiation. In this work we present an evaluation of the maximum age limits for OSL dating on Mars as a function of depth. At this time we have considered only static burial. Our calculations are based on published models of and data for: (i) Mars surface cosmic dose rate and its attenuation by martian regolith, (ii) elemental analyses of Mars meteorites, (iii) an experimental evaluation of the saturation dose for the martian soil simulant JSC Mars-1. Our analysis confirms earlier inferences that optical dating should have a greater effective age range on Mars than on Earth. At depths easily accessible by penetrators or moles (1-3 m), maximum optical ages greater than 600 ka are possible. Geochronology on this scale would include at least two stadial/interstadial cycles within Mars' last "Glacial Epoch" (synchronized insolation variations between the poles). A wide range of landforms and surface processes associated with climate variability -- e.g. outwash and lacustrine deposition, large-scale eolian activation -- could potentially be optically dated. At greater depths, that could be reached by mobile drilling rigs or cryobots (10-30m), optical age maximums of 4

  2. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  3. Effect of Age on Complexity and Causality of the Cardiovascular Control: Comparison between Model-Based and Model-Free Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Porta, Alberto; Faes, Luca; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; Bassani, Tito; Nollo, Giandomenico; Perseguini, Natália Maria; Milan, Juliana; Minatel, Vinícius; Borghi-Silva, Audrey; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.

    2014-01-01

    The proposed approach evaluates complexity of the cardiovascular control and causality among cardiovascular regulatory mechanisms from spontaneous variability of heart period (HP), systolic arterial pressure (SAP) and respiration (RESP). It relies on construction of a multivariate embedding space, optimization of the embedding dimension and a procedure allowing the selection of the components most suitable to form the multivariate embedding space. Moreover, it allows the comparison between linear model-based (MB) and nonlinear model-free (MF) techniques and between MF approaches exploiting local predictability (LP) and conditional entropy (CE). The framework was applied to study age-related modifications of complexity and causality in healthy humans in supine resting (REST) and during standing (STAND). We found that: 1) MF approaches are more efficient than the MB method when nonlinear components are present, while the reverse situation holds in presence of high dimensional embedding spaces; 2) the CE method is the least powerful in detecting age-related trends; 3) the association of HP complexity on age suggests an impairment of cardiac regulation and response to STAND; 4) the relation of SAP complexity on age indicates a gradual increase of sympathetic activity and a reduced responsiveness of vasomotor control to STAND; 5) the association from SAP to HP on age during STAND reveals a progressive inefficiency of baroreflex; 6) the reduced connection from HP to SAP with age might be linked to the progressive exploitation of Frank-Starling mechanism at REST and to the progressive increase of peripheral resistances during STAND; 7) at REST the diminished association from RESP to HP with age suggests a vagal withdrawal and a gradual uncoupling between respiratory activity and heart; 8) the weakened connection from RESP to SAP with age might be related to the progressive increase of left ventricular thickness and vascular stiffness and to the gradual decrease of

  4. Evidence-Based Practice in an Age of Relativism: Toward a Model for Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNeill, Ted

    2006-01-01

    Evidence-based practice (EBP) is considered a hallmark of excellence in clinical practice. However, many social workers are uncertain about how to implement this approach to practice. EBP involves integrating clinical expertise and values with the best available evidence from systematic research while simultaneously considering the client's values…

  5. Dynamic stock and end-of-life flow identification based on the internal cycle model and mean-age monitoring.

    PubMed

    Tsiliyannis, Christos Aristeides

    2014-07-01

    Planning of end-of-life (EoL) product take-back systems and sizing of dismantling and recycling centers, entails the EoL flow (EoLF) that originates from the product dynamic stock (DS). Several uncertain factors (economic, technological, health, social and environmental) render both the EoLF and the remaining stock uncertain. Early losses of products during use due to biodegradation, wear and uncertain factors such as withdrawals and exports of used, may diminish the stock and the EoLF. Life expectancy prediction methods are static, ignoring early losses and inapt under dynamic conditions. Existing dynamic methods, either consider a single uncertain factor (e.g. GDP) approximately or heuristically modelled and ignore other factors that may become dominant, or assume cognizance of DS and of the center axis of the EoL exit distribution that are unknown for most products. As a result, reliable dynamic EoLF prediction for both durables and consumer end-products is still challenging. The present work develops an identification method for estimating the early loss and DS and predicting the dynamic EoLF, based on available input data (production+net imports) and on sampled measurements of the stock mean-age and the EoLF mean-age. The mean ages are scaled quantities, slowly varying, even under dynamic conditions and can be reliably determined, even from small size and/or frequent samples. The method identifies the early loss sequence, as well as the center axis and spread of the EoL exit distribution, which are subsequently used to determine the DS and EoLF profiles, enabling consistent and reliable predictions. PMID:24721623

  6. ALL AGES LEAD MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model for Lead in Children (version 0.99d) was released in March 1994, and has been widely accepted in the risk assessment community as a tool for implementing the site specific risk assessment process when the issue is childhood...

  7. Aging Research Using Mouse Models

    PubMed Central

    Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L.; Anderson, Laura; Sheehan, Susan; Hill, Warren G.; Chang, Bo; Churchill, Gary A.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Korstanje, Ron; Peters, Luanne L.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the dramatic increase in human lifespan over the past century, there remains pronounced variability in “health-span”, or the period of time in which one is generally healthy and free of disease. Much of the variability in health-span and lifespan is thought to be genetic in origin. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of aging and identifying ways to boost longevity is a primary goal in aging research. Here, we describe a pipeline of phenotypic assays for assessing mouse models of aging. This pipeline includes behavior/cognition testing, body composition analysis, and tests of kidney function, hematopoiesis, immune function and physical parameters. We also describe study design methods for assessing lifespan and health-span, and other important considerations when conducting aging research in the laboratory mouse. The tools and assays provided can assist researchers with understanding the correlative relationships between age-associated phenotypes and, ultimately, the role of specific genes in the aging process. PMID:26069080

  8. Aging behavior and lifetime modeling for polycarbonate

    SciTech Connect

    Kahlen, S.; Wallner, G.M.; Lang, R.W.

    2010-05-15

    In this paper, polycarbonate (PC) as a material candidate for solar absorber applications is investigated as to the aging behavior at different temperatures in air and water. The aging conditioning was performed in air in the temperature range from 120 to 140 C and in water between 70 and 95 C. Tensile tests were performed on unaged and aged PC film specimens at ambient temperature using strain-to-break values as a performance indicator for the degree of aging. For PC the effect of aging was found to strongly depend on the aging conditions. Activation energy based lifetime prediction models according to various methods described in the literature were applied. The activation energies and corresponding lifetime predictions for the temperature range from 40 to 60 C in water and from 90 to 110 C in air derived from these models are compared and interpreted as to their practical relevance. (author)

  9. Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models.

    PubMed

    Marinaccio, Alessandro; Montanaro, Fabio; Mastrantonio, Marina; Uccelli, Raffaella; Altavista, Pierluigi; Nesti, Massimo; Costantini, Adele Seniori; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2005-05-20

    Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union, until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until 1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid-1970s in some workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in 1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer mortality figures (1970-1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among Italian men in the next 30 years by age-cohort-period models and by a model based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis. Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800 mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012-2024. Results estimated using age-period-cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos consumption model. PMID:15645436

  10. Design and modeling of quartz crystal microbalance-based ion sensors and aging of cryotropically gelled poly (vinyl alcohol)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howie, Douglas W., Jr.

    Potential uses for hydrogels span the full range of science, technology, and medicine. In this work two different hydrogel matrices were studied in the context of ion sensing and drug transport. In chapter one the fundamentals of sensing using a shear-mode acoustic device are described. In chapters two and three the experimental and theoretical work to understand sensor behavior are described. Chapter four treats the diffusion of a model drug through aged, physically gelled PVOH. In chapter five the change of gel structure with time is investigated and the relationship between aging and gel preparation is discussed.

  11. End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2016-01-01

    As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

  12. Multi-mutational model for cancer based on age-time patterns of radiation effects: 2. Biological aspects

    SciTech Connect

    Mendelsohn, M.L.; Pierce, P.A.

    1997-09-04

    Biological properties of relevance when modeling cancers induced in the atom bomb survivors include the wide distribution of the induced cancers across all organs, their biological indistinguishability from background cancers, their rates being proportional to background cancer rates, their rates steadily increasing over at least 50 years as the survivors age, and their radiation dose response being linear. We have successfully described this array of properties with a modified Armitage-Doll model using 5 to 6 somatic mutations, no intermediate growth, and the dose-related replacement of any one of these time-driven mutations by a radiation-induced mutation. Such a model is contrasted to prevailing models that use fewer mutations combined with intervening growth. While the rationale and effectiveness of our model is compelling for carcinogenesis in the atom bomb survivors, the lack of a promotional component may limit the generality of the model for other types of human carcinogenesis.

  13. A Model of Spirituality for Ageing Muslims.

    PubMed

    Ahmad, Mahjabeen; Khan, Shamsul

    2016-06-01

    Spirituality's influence on general well-being and its association with healthy ageing has been studied extensively. However, a different perspective has to be brought in when dealing with spirituality issues of ageing Muslims. Central to this perspective is the intertwining of religion and spirituality in Islam. This article will contribute to the understanding of the nature of Islamic spirituality and its immense importance in the life of a practicing ageing Muslim. Consequently, it will help care providers to include appropriate spiritual care in the care repertoire of a Muslim care recipient. It is assumed that the framework for a model of spirituality based on Islamic religious beliefs would help contextualise the relationship between spirituality and ageing Muslims. Not only challenges, but also the opportunities that old age provides for charting the spiritual journey have underpinned this model. PMID:25822881

  14. The Cognitive Processes Underlying Event-Based Prospective Memory in School-Age Children and Young Adults: A Formal Model-Based Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.; Martin, Claudia

    2010-01-01

    Fifty children 7 years of age (29 girls, 21 boys), 53 children 10 years of age (29 girls, 24 boys), and 36 young adults (19 women, 17 men) performed a computerized event-based prospective memory task. All 3 groups differed significantly in prospective memory performance, with adults showing the best performance and with 7-year-olds showing the…

  15. USE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODEL FOR CHLOROFORM IN RATS TO DETERMINE AGE-RELATED TOXICITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    USE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODEL FOR CHLOROFORM IN RATS TO DETERMINE AGE-RELATED TOXICITY.
    CR Eklund, MV Evans, and JE Simmons. US EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD,PKB, Research Triangle Park, NC.

    Chloroform (CHCl3) is a disinfec...

  16. USE OF PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODELS TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACT OF HUMAN AGE AND INTERINDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN PHYSIOLOGY AND BIOCHEMISTRY PERTINENT TO RISK (FINAL REPORT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This final report, Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk Final R...

  17. HUMTRN: documentation and verification for an ICRP-based age- and sex-specific human simulation model for radionuclide dose assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Wenzel, W.J.

    1984-06-01

    The dynamic human simulation model HUMTRN is designed specifically as a major module of BIOTRAN to integrate climatic, hydrologic, atmospheric, food crop, and herbivore simulation with human dietary and physiological characteristics, and metabolism and radionuclides to predict radiation doses to selected organs of both sexes in different age groups. The model is based on age- and weight-specific equations developed for predicting human radionuclide transport from metabolic and physical characteristics. These characteristics are modeled from studies documented by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP 23). HUMTRN allows cumulative doses from uranium or plutonium radionuclides to be predicted by modeling age-specific anatomical, physiological, and metabolic properties of individuals between 1 and 70 years of age and can track radiation exposure and radionuclide metabolism for any age group for specified daily or yearly time periods. The simulated daily dose integration of eight or more simultaneous air, water, and food intakes gives a new, comprehensive, dynamic picture of radionuclide intake, uptake, and hazard analysis for complex scenarios. A detailed example using site-specific data based on the Pantex studies is included for verification. 14 references, 24 figures, 10 tables.

  18. Towards an Analytical Age-Dependent Model of Contrast Sensitivity Functions for an Ageing Society

    PubMed Central

    Joulan, Karine; Brémond, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) describes how the visibility of a grating depends on the stimulus spatial frequency. Many published CSF data have demonstrated that contrast sensitivity declines with age. However, an age-dependent analytical model of the CSF is not available to date. In this paper, we propose such an analytical CSF model based on visual mechanisms, taking into account the age factor. To this end, we have extended an existing model from Barten (1999), taking into account the dependencies of this model's optical and physiological parameters on age. Age-dependent models of the cones and ganglion cells densities, the optical and neural MTF, and optical and neural noise are proposed, based on published data. The proposed age-dependent CSF is finally tested against available experimental data, with fair results. Such an age-dependent model may be beneficial when designing real-time age-dependent image coding and display applications. PMID:26078994

  19. Prediction Model for Prevalence and Incidence of Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration Based on Genetic, Demographic, and Environmental Variables

    PubMed Central

    Seddon, Johanna M.; Reynolds, Robyn; Maller, Julian; Fagerness, Jesen A.; Daly, Mark J.; Rosner, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The joint effects of genetic, ocular, and environmental variables were evaluated and predictive models for prevalence and incidence of AMD were assessed. Methods Participants in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) were included in a prospective evaluation of 1446 individuals, of which 279 progressed to advanced AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular disease) and 1167 did not progress during 6.3 years of follow-up. For prevalent AMD, 509 advanced cases were compared with 222 controls. Covariates for the incidence analysis included age, sex, education, smoking, body mass index (BMI), baseline AMD grade, and the AREDS vitamin–mineral treatment assignment. DNA specimens were evaluated for six variants in five genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed for prevalent and incident advanced AMD. An algorithm was developed and receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics were calculated to assess the predictive ability of risk scores to discriminate progressors from nonprogressors. Results All genetic polymorphisms were independently related to prevalence of advanced AMD, controlling for genetic factors, smoking, BMI, and AREDS treatment. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) were 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7–7.1) for CFH Y402H; 3.7 (95% CI, 1.6 – 8.4) for CFH rs1410996; 25.4 (95% CI, 8.6 –75.1) for LOC387715 A69S (ARMS2); 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1– 0.7) for C2 E318D; 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1– 0.5) for CFB; and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.4 –9.4) for C3 R102G, comparing the homozygous risk/protective genotypes to the referent genotypes. For incident AMD, all these variants except CFB were significantly related to progression to advanced AMD, after controlling for baseline AMD grade and other factors, with ORs from 1.8 to 4.0 for presence of two risk alleles and 0.4 for the protective allele. An interaction was seen between CFH402H and treatment, after controlling for all genotypes. Smoking was independently

  20. Modeling and measuring extravascular hemoglobin: aging contusions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lines, Collin; Kim, Oleg; Duffy, Susan; Alber, Mark; Crawford, Gregory P.

    2011-07-01

    Medical expertise is frequently elicited to aid in determining the age and the cause of the trauma or injury. Child protection and law enforcement frequently rely on the physical assessment of the trauma which involves delineating intentional from unintentional types of trauma. Recent studies have shown that current methods to assess the age of traumatic injuries are highly inaccurate and do not give reasonable predictions. Hemoglobin is one of the strongest chromophores in human tissues. Transport of hemoglobin and its breakdown products in tissue determines the spectrophotometric characteristics of the skin and its variations in time. Therefore, measurements of diffuse reflective spectra of the skin allow noninvasive screening. This paper reviews potential transmission and diffusive reflection spectroscopy based techniques and predictive and quantitative modeling methods assisting in efficient retrieval of the age of extravascular contusions. This paper then presents a novel Monte Carlo technique for 3D photon tracking and blood transport model. In future studies, clinically obtained spectra will be used to validate the model as well as fine-tune coefficients for absorption. It is the goal of this study to develop a model that would allow a non-invasive, accurate determination of the age of a bruise.

  1. [Experimental models of human skin aging].

    PubMed

    Nikolakis, G; Zoschke, C; Makrantonaki, E; Hausmann, C; Schäfer-Korting, M; Zouboulis, C C

    2016-02-01

    The skin is a representative model for the study of human aging. Despite the high regenerative capacity of the skin, skin physiology changes over the course of life. Medical and cosmetic research is trying to prevent aging, to slow, to stop, or to reverse it. Effects of age-related DNA damage and of changing skin structure on pharmacological parameters are largely unknown. This review article summarizes the state of scientific knowledge in the field of experimental models of human skin aging and shows approaches to improve organotypic skin models, to develop predictive models of aging, and improve aging research. PMID:26743051

  2. Simulating Statistical Power in Latent Growth Curve Modeling: A Strategy for Evaluating Age-Based Changes in Cognitive Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lindenberger, Ulman

    Variability across and within individuals is a fundamental property of adult age changes in behavior [20, 21, 24]. Some people seem young for their age, others seem old; shining examples of older individuals who maintained high levels of intellectual functioning well into very old age, such as Johann Wolfgang von Goethe or Sophocles, stand in contrast to individuals whose cognitive resources are depleted by the time they reach later adulthood. A similar contrast exists between different intellectual abilities. For example, if one looks at the speed needed to identify and discriminate between different percepts, one is likely to find monotonic decline after late adolescence and early adulthood.

  3. Extension of viscoplasticity based on overstress to capture the effects of prior aging on the time dependent deformation behavior of a high-temperature polymer: Experiments and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McClung, Amber J. W.

    The inelastic deformation behavior of PMR-15 neat resin, a high-temperature thermoset polymer, was investigated at 288° C. The experimental program was designed to explore the influence of strain rate on tensile loading, unloading, and strain recovery behaviors. In addition, the effect of the prior strain rate on the relaxation response of the material, as well as on the creep behavior following strain controlled loading were examined. The material exhibits positive, nonlinear strain rate sensitivity in monotonic loading. Nonlinear, "curved" stress-strain behavior during unloading is observed at all strain rates. The recovery of strain at zero stress is strongly affected by prior strain rate. The prior strain rate also has a profound influence on relaxation behavior. The rest stresses measured at the termination of relaxation tests form the relaxation boundary which resembles a nonlinear stress-strain curve. Likewise, creep response is significantly influenced by prior strain rate. The experimental results suggest that the inelastic behavior of the PMR-15 solid polymer at 288°C can be represented using a unified constitutive model with an overstress dependence of the inelastic rate of deformation. The experimental data were modeled with the Viscoplasticity Based on Overstress (VBO) theory. A systematic procedure for determining model parameters was developed and the model was employed to predict the response of the material under various test histories. Additionally the effects of prior aging at 288° C in argon on the time (rate)-dependent behavior of the PMR-15 polymer were evaluated in a series of strain and load controlled experiments. Based on experimental results, the VBO theory was extended to capture the environmentally induced changes in the material response. Several of the VBO material parameters were expanded as functions of prior aging time. The resulting model was used to predict the high-temperature behavior of the PMR-15 polymer subjected to prior

  4. COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Goswami, B.; Baldini, J. U. L.; Ridley, H. E.; Kennett, D. J.; Prufer, K. M.; Aquino, V. V.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.; Cheng, H.; Kurths, J.; Marwan, N.

    2012-10-01

    Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question. We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage.

  5. Age depth model construction of the upper section of ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project based on the high-resolution 14C dating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitagawa, H.; Nakamura, T.; Neugebauer, I.; Schwab, M. J.; Brauer, A.; Goldstein, S. L.; Stein, M.

    2014-12-01

    To reconstruct environmental, climatic and tectonic histories of the Levant, a deep drilling has been accomplished in the northern basin of the Dead Sea during the fall winter of 2010-2011 by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) in the framework of the ICDP program. The sediment cores from site 5017-1 (water depth of ~300 m) recorded the paleoenvironmental and paleohydrological changes in the Dead Sea and the Levant during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles (Neugebauer et al., QSR in press). To provide precise timing of sedimentological - limnological events in the lake and its watershed, and more critically the relative timing of these events, radiocarbon dating of >70 well-preserved terrestrial plants and some carbonate deposits from the upper 150 m long section of the sediment core were performed. Based on the high-resolution radiocarbon dating, a statistical age-depth model was constructed with assumptions on the deposition condition and the radiocarbon age offset of carbonate samples. We discuss the practicality and the limitation of the age-depth model toward interpreting the high-resolution records of environmental, climatic and tectonic events recorded in the long sediment cores from site 5017-1.

  6. Simulating the multicellular homeostasis with a cell-based discrete receptor dynamics model: The non-mutational origin of cancer and aging.

    PubMed

    Lou, Yuting; Chen, Yu

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of the study is to investigate the multicellular homeostasis in epithelial tissues over very large timescales. Inspired by the receptor dynamics of IBCell model proposed by Rejniak et al. an on-grid agent-based model for multicellular system is constructed. Instead of observing the multicellular architectural morphologies, the diversity of homeostatic states is quantitatively analyzed through a substantial number of simulations by measuring three new order parameters, the phenotypic population structure, the average proliferation age and the relaxation time to stable homeostasis. Nearby the interfaces of distinct homeostatic phases in 3D phase diagrams of the three order parameters, intermediate quasi-stable phases of slow dynamics that features quasi-stability with a large spectrum of relaxation timescales are found. A further exploration on the static and dynamic correlations among the three order parameters reveals that the quasi-stable phases evolve towards two terminations, tumorigenesis and degeneration, which are respectively accompanied by rejuvenation and aging. With the exclusion of the environmental impact and the mutational strategies, the results imply that cancer and aging may share the non-mutational origin in the intrinsic slow dynamics of the multicellular systems. PMID:27196967

  7. Effective groundwater modeling of the data-poor Nubian Aquifer System (Chad, Egypt, Libya, Sudan) - use of parsimony and 81Kr-based groundwater ages (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, C. I.; Soliman, S. M.; Aggarwal, P. K.

    2013-12-01

    Important information for management of large aquifer systems can be obtained via a parsimonious approach to groundwater modeling, in part, employing isotope-interpreted groundwater ages. ';Parsimonious' modeling implies active avoidance of overly-complex representations when constructing models. This approach is essential for evaluation of aquifer systems that lack informative hydrogeologic databases. Even in the most remote aquifers, despite lack of typical data, groundwater ages can be interpreted from isotope samples at only a few downstream locations. These samples incorporate hydrogeologic information from the entire upstream groundwater flowpath; thus, interpreted ages are among the most-effective information sources for groundwater model development. This approach is applied to the world's largest non-renewable aquifer, the transboundary Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) of Chad, Egypt, Libya and Sudan. In the NAS countries, water availability is a critical problem and NAS can reliably serve as a water supply for an extended future period. However, there are national concerns about transboundary impacts of water use by neighbors. These concerns include excessive depletion of shared groundwater by individual countries and the spread of water-table drawdown across borders, where neighboring country near-border shallow wells and oases may dry. Development of a parsimonious groundwater flow model, based on limited available NAS hydrogeologic data and on 81Kr groundwater ages below oases in Egypt, is a key step in providing a technical basis for international discussion concerning management of this non-renewable water resource. Simply-structured model analyses, undertaken as part of an IAEA/UNDP/GEF project, show that although the main transboundary issue is indeed drawdown crossing national boundaries, given the large scale of NAS and its plausible ranges of aquifer parameter values, the magnitude of transboundary drawdown will likely be small and may not be a

  8. Aging Successfully: A Four-Factor Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Pai-Lin; Lan, William; Yen, Tung-Wen

    2011-01-01

    The study was designed to validate a model for a successful aging process and examine the gender differences in the aging process. Three hundred twelve participants who were 65 or older completed a Taiwan Social Change Survey that measures four factors that define successful aging process: including physical, psychological, social support, and…

  9. Model-Based Once-Daily Darunavir/Ritonavir Dosing Recommendations in Pediatric HIV-1-Infected Patients Aged ≥3 to <12 Years.

    PubMed

    Brochot, A; Kakuda, T N; Van De Casteele, T; Opsomer, M; Tomaka, F L; Vermeulen, A; Vis, P

    2015-07-01

    An existing population pharmacokinetic model of darunavir in adults was updated using pediatric data from two studies evaluating weight-based, once-daily dosing of darunavir/ritonavir (ARIEL, NCT00919854 and DIONE, NCT00915655). The model was then used to provide once-daily dosing recommendations for darunavir/ritonavir in pediatric patients aged ≥3 to <12 years. The final model comprised two compartments with first-order absorption and apparent clearance dependent on the concentration of α1-acid glycoprotein. The recommended darunavir/ritonavir once-daily dosing regimens in children aged ≥3 to <12 years are: 35/7 mg/kg from 10 to <15 kg, 600/100 mg from 15 to <30 kg, 675/100 mg from 30 to <40 kg, and 800/100 mg for ≥40 kg. These doses should result in exposures similar to the adult exposure after treatment with darunavir/ritonavir 800/100 mg once daily, while minimizing pill burden and allowing a switch from suspension to tablet(s) as early as possible. PMID:26312164

  10. Model-Based Once-Daily Darunavir/Ritonavir Dosing Recommendations in Pediatric HIV-1-Infected Patients Aged ≥3 to <12 Years

    PubMed Central

    Brochot, A; Kakuda, TN; Van De Casteele, T; Opsomer, M; Tomaka, FL; Vermeulen, A; Vis, P

    2015-01-01

    An existing population pharmacokinetic model of darunavir in adults was updated using pediatric data from two studies evaluating weight-based, once-daily dosing of darunavir/ritonavir (ARIEL, NCT00919854 and DIONE, NCT00915655). The model was then used to provide once-daily dosing recommendations for darunavir/ritonavir in pediatric patients aged ≥3 to <12 years. The final model comprised two compartments with first-order absorption and apparent clearance dependent on the concentration of α1-acid glycoprotein. The recommended darunavir/ritonavir once-daily dosing regimens in children aged ≥3 to <12 years are: 35/7 mg/kg from 10 to <15 kg, 600/100 mg from 15 to <30 kg, 675/100 mg from 30 to <40 kg, and 800/100 mg for ≥40 kg. These doses should result in exposures similar to the adult exposure after treatment with darunavir/ritonavir 800/100 mg once daily, while minimizing pill burden and allowing a switch from suspension to tablet(s) as early as possible. PMID:26312164

  11. Cognitive aging on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: a novel structural equation modeling framework with causal assumptions based on a theory of visual attention

    PubMed Central

    Nielsen, Simon; Wilms, L. Inge

    2015-01-01

    We examined the effects of normal aging on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60–75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive aging affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; Model 2), informed by functional structures that were modeled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1). The results show that aging effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity (Model 2). These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective aging effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting aging effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive aging effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent. PMID:25642206

  12. Base Excision Repair, Aging and Health Span

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Guogang; Herzig, Maryanne; Rotrekl, Vladimir; Walter, Christi A.

    2008-01-01

    DNA damage and mutagenesis are suggested to contribute to aging through their ability to mediate cellular dysfunction. The base excision repair (BER) pathway ameliorates a large number of DNA lesions that arise spontaneously. Many of these lesions are reported to increase with age. Oxidized guanine, repaired largely via base excision repair, is particularly well studied and shown to increase with age. Spontaneous mutant frequencies also increase with age which suggests that mutagenesis may contribute to aging. It is widely accepted that genetic instability contributes to age-related occurrences of cancer and potentially other age-related pathologies. BER activity decreases with age in multiple tissues. The specific BER protein that appears to limit activity varies among tissues. DNA polymerase-β is reduced in brain from aged mice and rats while AP endonuclease is reduced in spermatogenic cells obtained from old mice. The differences in proteins that appear to limit BER activity among tissues may represent true tissue-specific differences in activity or may be due to differences in techniques, environmental conditions or other unidentified differences among the experimental approaches. Much remains to be addressed concerning the potential role of BER in aging and age-related health span. PMID:18423806

  13. Calibration of models using groundwater age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.

    2011-01-01

    There have been substantial efforts recently by geochemists to determine the age of groundwater (time since water entered the system) and its uncertainty, and by hydrologists to use these data to help calibrate groundwater models. This essay discusses the calibration of models using groundwater age, with conclusions that emphasize what is practical given current limitations rather than theoretical possibilities.

  14. Friendship in school-age boys with autism spectrum disorders: A meta-analytic summary and developmental, process-based model.

    PubMed

    Mendelson, Jenna L; Gates, Jacquelyn A; Lerner, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Friendship-making is considered a well-established domain of deficit for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD; American Psychiatric Association, 2013), with this population sometimes described as incapable of making friends. However, the majority of children with ASD indicate a desire for friends, and many report having friends. To what degree, then, do youth with ASD succeed in achieving friendships with peers? If and when they do succeed, by what means do these friendships emerge relative to models of typically developing (TD) youths' friendships? To address these questions, we first meta-analyzed the descriptive friendship literature (peer-reported sociometrics, self-report, parent-report) among school-age boys with ASD. Using random effects models, we found that youth with ASD do make friends according to peers and parents (Hedges's g > 2.84). However, self-reported friendship quality (Hedges's g = -1.09) and parent- and peer-reported quantity (Hedges's g < -0.63) were poorer than TD peers. We consider these findings in light of 2 conceptual frameworks for understanding social deficits in ASD (social cognition and social motivation theory) and in view of a leading model of friendship in TD youth (Hartup & Stevens, 1997). We then present a model that synthesizes these domains through the construct of social information processing speed, and thereby present the first developmental, process-based model of friendship development among youth with ASD. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26752425

  15. Successful Aging as a Continuum of Functional Independence: Lessons from Physical Disability Models of Aging

    PubMed Central

    Lowry, Kristin A.; Vallejo, Abbe N.; Studenski, Stephanie A.

    2011-01-01

    Successful aging is a multidimensional construct that could be viewed as a continuum of achievement. Based on the disability model proposed by the WHO International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, successful aging includes not only the presence or absence of disease, but also aspects of mobility and social participation. Here we review definitions of successful aging and discuss relevance of the disability model in the evaluation of successful aging and frailty. In particular, we summarize evidences that highlight the importance of measures of mobility (ability to walk and perform activities of daily living), and social participation in identifying and locating older adults across the range of the successful aging continuum. Lastly, we discuss the role of inflammation in age-related decline and in frailty. Future research directions are proposed, including identifying causal pathways among inflammatory markers, disability, and frailty. A better understanding of immunological functioning in late life may help unlock novel ways to promote successful aging. PMID:22500268

  16. COnstructing Proxy-Record Age models (COPRA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marwan, Norbert; Rehfeld, Kira; Goswami, Bedartha; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. The increasing availability of high-resolution palaeoclimate time series, e.g., based on speleothem archives, has attracted some new activity in the development of alternative and novel approaches for reconstructing chronologies. Challenges in this effort are (semi-)automatic outlier, reversal, and hiatus detection and treatment, as well as the inclusion of information on age uncertainties and independent layer counting to improve the overall precision of the chronology. However, different dating strategies, different kinds of palaeoarchive formation, dating uncertainties, and different chronology construction methods cause a limited comparability of the different palaeoclimate records. We present a recently developed framework which addresses these challenges and which allows the incorporation of layer counting data to improve the reconstructed chronology of a given time series. Moreover, we introduce the concept of an "absolute" time scale, a common time axis which works as an invariant reference allowing the comparison of different palaeoclimate records. This concept translates the age uncertainties into uncertainties in the proxy values. This framework is implemented as an open source software (COPRA) for Octave and Matlab.

  17. Evaluation of periodontal risk assessment model among adults aged 30-60 years attending KLE Dental College, Belgaum: A hospital-based study

    PubMed Central

    Eshwar, Shruthi; Ankola, Anil V.; Kumar, Ashok; Hebbal, Mamata

    2010-01-01

    Aim: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the periodontal risk of individuals using the modified periodontal risk assessment model. Materials and Methods: Adult subjects aged 30-60 years attending the out patient department of Institute of Dental Sciences, Belgaum in a week’s period were screened and 30 among those who met the criteria were included in the study. Complete history and examination of the oral cavity was done using mouth mirror and community periodontal index probes. Periodontal status was recorded using community periodontal index. Systemic conditions like hypertension and diabetes was assessed by suitable investigations. All the risk factors were plotted on a model using Microsoft excel and periodontal risk was assessed based on the findings and categorized as low, moderate and high risk. Results: Among 30 patients 13 were in low risk group, 10 in moderate risk group, and 7 in high risk group identified by proposed model given by Vishwa Chandra whereas 20 patients were in low risk group, 5 in moderate risk group and 5 in high risk group when identified Lang and Tonetti model (2003). Conclusion: In conclusion the use of risk assessment tool would result in reduction of complex therapies and would prevent the future effects of periodontal disease such as bone and tooth loss. PMID:21760671

  18. Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V.

    2016-01-01

    A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease. PMID:27014089

  19. Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model.

    PubMed

    Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V

    2016-01-01

    A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease. PMID:27014089

  20. Numerical solution of the Penna model of biological aging with age-modified mutation rate.

    PubMed

    Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M S; Maksymowicz, A Z

    2009-06-01

    In this paper we present results of numerical calculation of the Penna bit-string model of biological aging, modified for the case of a -dependent mutation rate m(a), where a is the parent's age. The mutation rate m(a) is the probability per bit of an extra bad mutation introduced in offspring inherited genome. We assume that m(a) increases with age a. As compared with the reference case of the standard Penna model based on a constant mutation rate m , the dynamics of the population growth shows distinct changes in age distribution of the population. Here we concentrate on mortality q(a), a fraction of items eliminated from the population when we go from age (a) to (a+1) in simulated transition from time (t) to next time (t+1). The experimentally observed q(a) dependence essentially follows the Gompertz exponential law for a above the minimum reproduction age. Deviation from the Gompertz law is however observed for the very old items, close to the maximal age. This effect may also result from an increase in mutation rate m with age a discussed in this paper. The numerical calculations are based on analytical solution of the Penna model, presented in a series of papers by Coe et al. [J. B. Coe, Y. Mao, and M. E. Cates, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 288103 (2002)]. Results of the numerical calculations are supported by the data obtained from computer simulation based on the solution by Coe et al. PMID:19658536

  1. Age-based factors in femicide.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Ann Wolbert; Burgess, Allen G; Koehler, Steven A; Dominick, Joseph; Wecht, Cyril H

    2005-01-01

    Homicide is a topic of interest not only because of its severity but because it is a fairly reliable barometer of all violent crime, especially as it affects women. This exploratory study compared a group of murdered women over age 60 with a group of murdered women 30-59 and included age-based factors for both groups. Discussion focuses on forensics as insight to crime scene dynamics and homicidal behavior. PMID:17073116

  2. An integrated modeling approach to age invariant face recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvi, Fahad Bashir; Pears, Russel

    2015-03-01

    This Research study proposes a novel method for face recognition based on Anthropometric features that make use of an integrated approach comprising of a global and personalized models. The system is aimed to at situations where lighting, illumination, and pose variations cause problems in face recognition. A Personalized model covers the individual aging patterns while a Global model captures general aging patterns in the database. We introduced a de-aging factor that de-ages each individual in the database test and training sets. We used the k nearest neighbor approach for building a personalized model and global model. Regression analysis was applied to build the models. During the test phase, we resort to voting on different features. We used FG-Net database for checking the results of our technique and achieved 65 percent Rank 1 identification rate.

  3. Rodent models of aging bone: an update.

    PubMed

    Syed, Farhan A; Melim, Terry

    2011-12-01

    With an increase in the average life span especially in the Western hemisphere, there is renewed interest in treating maladies of old age including osteoporosis. Age-related bone loss and resultant osteoporosis substantially increase risk of fractures and morbidity in the geriatric population leading to both a decline in the quality of life for the elderly as well as a substantial burden on the health care system. Herein, we review recent research in murine and rodent models looking at how both extrinsic and intrinsic factors such as hormones, biochemicals, neuromodulators, inflammatory cytokines, oxidative stress, nutrition, and exercise influence the skeleton with age. Recent studies on the relationship between bone and fat in the marrow, and the fate of the marrow mesenchymal stromal cell population, which can give rise to either bone-forming osteoblasts or fat-forming adipocytic cells as a function of age, have also been highlighted. An appreciable range of studies using aging murine as well as cellular models are discussed, as these studies have broadened our understanding of the pathways and players in the aging bone. Impactful information regarding aging and the bone may then allow the application of better pharmacologic as well as nonpharmacologic regimens to alleviate bone loss due to aging. PMID:21918858

  4. Applicability of Age-Based Hunting Regulations for African Leopards

    PubMed Central

    Balme, Guy Andrew; Hunter, Luke; Braczkowski, Alex Richard

    2012-01-01

    In species in which juvenile survival depends strongly on male tenure, excessive trophy hunting can artificially elevate male turnover and increase infanticide, potentially to unsustainable levels. Simulation models show that the likelihood of safe harvests can be improved by restricting offtakes to males old enough to have reared their first cohort of offspring to independence; in the case of African leopards, males were ≥7 years old. Here, we explore the applicability of an age-based approach for regulating trophy hunting of leopards. We conducted a structured survey comprising photographs of known-age leopards to assess the ability of wildlife practitioners to sex and age leopards. We also evaluated the utility of four phenotypic traits for use by trophy hunters to age male leopards in the field. Our logistic regression models showed that male leopard age affected the likelihood of survey respondents identifying the correct sex; notably, males <2 years were typically misidentified as females, while mature males (≥4 years) were sexed correctly. Mature male leopards were also more likely to be aged correctly, as were portrait photographs. Aging proficiency was also influenced by the profession of respondents, with hunters recording the lowest scores. A discriminant model including dewlap size, the condition of the ears, and the extent of facial scarring accurately discriminated among male leopard age classes. Model classification rates were considerably higher than the respective scores attained by survey respondents, implying that the aging ability of hunters could theoretically improve with appropriate training. Dewlap size was a particularly reliable indicator of males ≥7 years and a review of online trophy galleries suggested its wider utility as an aging criterion. Our study demonstrated that an age-based hunting approach is practically applicable for leopards. However, implementation would require major reform within the regulatory framework and the

  5. Pathology of Mouse Models of Accelerated Aging.

    PubMed

    Harkema, L; Youssef, S A; de Bruin, A

    2016-03-01

    Progeroid mouse models display phenotypes in multiple organ systems that suggest premature aging and resemble features of natural aging of both mice and humans. The prospect of a significant increase in the global elderly population within the next decades has led to the emergence of "geroscience," which aims at elucidating the molecular mechanisms involved in aging. Progeroid mouse models are frequently used in geroscience as they provide insight into the molecular mechanisms that are involved in the highly complex process of natural aging. This review provides an overview of the most commonly reported nonneoplastic macroscopic and microscopic pathologic findings in progeroid mouse models (eg, osteoporosis, osteoarthritis, degenerative joint disease, intervertebral disc degeneration, kyphosis, sarcopenia, cutaneous atrophy, wound healing, hair loss, alopecia, lymphoid atrophy, cataract, corneal endothelial dystrophy, retinal degenerative diseases, and vascular remodeling). Furthermore, several shortcomings in pathologic analysis and descriptions of these models are discussed. Progeroid mouse models are valuable models for aging, but thorough knowledge of both the mouse strain background and the progeria-related phenotype is required to guide interpretation and translation of the pathology data. PMID:26864891

  6. Age estimation based on bone length using 12 regression models of left hand X-ray images for Asian children below 19 years old.

    PubMed

    Darmawan, M F; Yusuf, Suhaila M; Abdul Kadir, M R; Haron, H

    2015-03-01

    Age estimation was used in forensic anthropology to help in the identification of individual remains and living person. However, the estimation methods tend to be unique and applicable only to a certain population. This paper analyzed age estimation using twelve regression models carried out on X-ray images of the left hand taken from an Asian data set for subjects under the age of 19. All the nineteen bones of the left hand were measured using free image software and the statistical analysis were performed using SPSS. There are two methods to determine age in this study which are single bone method and all bones method. For single bone method, S-curve regression model was found to have the highest R-square value using second metacarpal for males, and third proximal phalanx for females. For age estimation using single bone, fifth metacarpal from males and fifth proximal phalanx from females can be used due to the lowest mean square error (MSE) value. To conclude, multiple linear regressions is the best techniques for age estimation in cases where all bones are available, but if not, S-curve regression can be used using single bone method. PMID:25456051

  7. Differences in geriatric anthropometric data between DXA-based subject-specific estimates and non-age-specific traditional regression models

    PubMed Central

    Sukits, Alison L.; McCrory, Jean L.; Cham, Rakié

    2016-01-01

    Age, obesity, and gender can have a significant impact on the anthropometrics of adults aged 65 and older. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in body segment parameters derived using two methods: (1) a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) subject-specific method (Chambers et al., 2010) and (2) traditional regression models (de Leva, 1996). The impact of aging, gender, and obesity on the potential differences between these methods was examined. Eighty-three healthy older adults were recruited for participation. Participants underwent a whole-body DXA scan (Hologic QDR 1000/W). Mass, length, center of mass, and radius of gyration were determined for each segment. In addition, traditional regressions were used to estimate these parameters (de Leva, 1996). A mixed linear regression model was performed (α = 0.05). Method type was significant in every variable of interest except forearm segment mass. The obesity and gender differences that we observed translate into differences associated with using traditional regressions to predict anthropometric variables in an aging population. Our data point to a need to consider age, obesity, and gender when utilizing anthropometric data sets and to develop regression models that accurately predict body segment parameters in the geriatric population, considering gender and obesity. PMID:21844608

  8. Differences in geriatric anthropometric data between DXA-based subject-specific estimates and non-age-specific traditional regression models.

    PubMed

    Chambers, April J; Sukits, Alison L; McCrory, Jean L; Cham, Rakie

    2011-08-01

    Age, obesity, and gender can have a significant impact on the anthropometrics of adults aged 65 and older. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in body segment parameters derived using two methods: (1) a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) subject-specific method (Chambers et al., 2010) and (2) traditional regression models (de Leva, 1996). The impact of aging, gender, and obesity on the potential differences between these methods was examined. Eighty-three healthy older adults were recruited for participation. Participants underwent a whole-body DXA scan (Hologic QDR 1000/W). Mass, length, center of mass, and radius of gyration were determined for each segment. In addition, traditional regressions were used to estimate these parameters (de Leva, 1996). A mixed linear regression model was performed (α = 0.05). Method type was significant in every variable of interest except forearm segment mass. The obesity and gender differences that we observed translate into differences associated with using traditional regressions to predict anthropometric variables in an aging population. Our data point to a need to consider age, obesity, and gender when utilizing anthropometric data sets and to develop regression models that accurately predict body segment parameters in the geriatric population, considering gender and obesity. PMID:21844608

  9. Agent-Based Model Forecasts Aging of the Population of People Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago and Changing Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infections.

    PubMed

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E

    2015-01-01

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010-2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(± 2)% to 36(± 5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(± 5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(± 1) to 40(± 2) with a corresponding increase from 59(± 2)% to 80(± 6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities. PMID:26421722

  10. Agent-Based Model Forecasts Aging of the Population of People Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago and Changing Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infections

    PubMed Central

    Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.

    2015-01-01

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities. PMID:26421722

  11. Species ages in neutral biodiversity models.

    PubMed

    Chisholm, Ryan A; O'Dwyer, James P

    2014-05-01

    Biogeography seeks to understand the mechanisms that drive biodiversity across long temporal and large spatial scales. Theoretical models of biogeography can be tested by comparing their predictions of quantities such as species ages against empirical estimates. It has previously been claimed that the neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography predicts species ages that are unrealistically long. Any improved theory of biodiversity must rectify this problem, but first it is necessary to quantify the problem precisely. Here we provide analytical expressions for species ages in neutral biodiversity communities. We analyse a spatially implicit metacommunity model and solve for both the zero-sum and non-zero-sum cases. We explain why our new expressions are, in the context of biodiversity, usually more appropriate than those previously imported from neutral molecular evolution. Because of the time symmetry of the spatially implicit neutral model, our expressions also lead directly to formulas for species persistence times and species lifetimes. We use our new expressions to estimate species ages of forest trees under a neutral model and find that they are about an order of magnitude shorter than those predicted previously but still unrealistically long. In light of our results, we discuss different models of biogeography that may solve the problem of species ages. PMID:24530891

  12. Models to explore genetics of human aging.

    PubMed

    Karasik, David; Newman, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Genetic studies have bestowed insight into the biological mechanisms underlying inter-individual differences in susceptibility to (or resistance to) organisms’ aging. Recent advances in molecular and genetic epidemiology provide tools to explore the genetic sources of the variability in biological aging in humans. To be successful, the genetic study of a complex condition such as aging requires the clear definition of essential traits that can characterize the aging process phenotypically. Phenotypes of human aging have long relied on mortality rate or exceptional longevity. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been shown to present an unbiased approach to the identification of new candidate genes for human diseases. The GWAS approach can also be used for positive health phenotypes such as longevity or a delay in age-related chronic disease, as well as for other age related changes such as loss of telomere length or lens transparency. Sequencing, either in targeted regions or across the whole genome can further identify rare variation that may contribute to the biological aging mechanisms. To date, the results of the GWAS for longevity are rather disappointing, possibly in part due to the small number of individuals with GWAS data who have reached advanced old age.Human aging phenotypes are needed that can be assessed prior to death, and should be both heritable and validated as predictors of longevity. Potentially, phenotypes that focus on “successful” or “healthy” aging will be more powerful as they can be measured in large numbers of people and also are clinically relevant.We postulate that construction of an integrated phenotype of aging can be achieved capitalizing on multiple traits that may have weak correlations, but a shared underlying genetic architecture. This is based on a hypothesis that convergent results from multiple individual aging-related traits will point out the pleiotropic signals responsible for the overall rate of aging of

  13. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-07-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater (DIC) is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, which is the time elapsed since a body of water has been in contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with ageing, i.e. the time component of circulation, and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". The latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere-ocean equilibration of 14C particularly in high latitudes where many water masses form. In the ocean's interior, preformed 14C-age behaves like a passive tracer. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. Here, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age. Between models, the variability of preformed 14C-age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combination of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics or gas exchange. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation, the choice of the gas-exchange constant from within the currently accepted range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age, it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a model's circulation on global and regional

  14. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2014-10-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, the time elapsed since a body of water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with aging, i.e. the time component of circulation and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". This latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere/ocean equilibration of 14C in particular in high latitudes where many water masses form. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability, e.g. in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. In the Atlantic, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age alone. Between models the variability of age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combinations of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics, and gas exchange in the models. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation exercise, the choice of the gas exchange constant from within the current range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a models circulation on global and regional scales. Based on the results of this study, we propose that considering

  15. Mathematical Modelling of Metabolic Regulation in Aging

    PubMed Central

    Mc Auley, Mark T.; Mooney, Kathleen M.; Angell, Peter J.; Wilkinson, Stephen J.

    2015-01-01

    The underlying cellular mechanisms that characterize aging are complex and multifaceted. However, it is emerging that aging could be regulated by two distinct metabolic hubs. These hubs are the pathway defined by the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and that defined by the NAD+-dependent deacetylase enzyme, SIRT1. Recent experimental evidence suggests that there is crosstalk between these two important pathways; however, the mechanisms underpinning their interaction(s) remains poorly understood. In this review, we propose using computational modelling in tandem with experimentation to delineate the mechanism(s). We briefly discuss the main modelling frameworks that could be used to disentangle this relationship and present a reduced reaction pathway that could be modelled. We conclude by outlining the limitations of computational modelling and by discussing opportunities for future progress in this area. PMID:25923415

  16. Mathematical modelling of metabolic regulation in aging.

    PubMed

    Auley, Mark T Mc; Mooney, Kathleen M; Angell, Peter J; Wilkinson, Stephen J

    2015-01-01

    The underlying cellular mechanisms that characterize aging are complex and multifaceted. However, it is emerging that aging could be regulated by two distinct metabolic hubs. These hubs are the pathway defined by the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and that defined by the NAD+-dependent deacetylase enzyme, SIRT1. Recent experimental evidence suggests that there is crosstalk between these two important pathways; however, the mechanisms underpinning their interaction(s) remains poorly understood. In this review, we propose using computational modelling in tandem with experimentation to delineate the mechanism(s). We briefly discuss the main modelling frameworks that could be used to disentangle this relationship and present a reduced reaction pathway that could be modelled. We conclude by outlining the limitations of computational modelling and by discussing opportunities for future progress in this area. PMID:25923415

  17. Love Kills:. Simulations in Penna Ageing Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, Dietrich; Cebrat, Stanisław; Penna, T. J. P.; Sousa, A. O.

    The standard Penna ageing model with sexual reproduction is enlarged by adding additional bit-strings for love: Marriage happens only if the male love strings are sufficiently different from the female ones. We simulate at what level of required difference the population dies out.

  18. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  19. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  20. Normal brain ageing: models and mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Toescu, Emil C

    2005-01-01

    Normal ageing is associated with a degree of decline in a number of cognitive functions. Apart from the issues raised by the current attempts to expand the lifespan, understanding the mechanisms and the detailed metabolic interactions involved in the process of normal neuronal ageing continues to be a challenge. One model, supported by a significant amount of experimental evidence, views the cellular ageing as a metabolic state characterized by an altered function of the metabolic triad: mitochondria–reactive oxygen species (ROS)–intracellular Ca2+. The perturbation in the relationship between the members of this metabolic triad generate a state of decreased homeostatic reserve, in which the aged neurons could maintain adequate function during normal activity, as demonstrated by the fact that normal ageing is not associated with widespread neuronal loss, but become increasingly vulnerable to the effects of excessive metabolic loads, usually associated with trauma, ischaemia or neurodegenerative processes. This review will concentrate on some of the evidence showing altered mitochondrial function with ageing and also discuss some of the functional consequences that would result from such events, such as alterations in mitochondrial Ca2+ homeostasis, ATP production and generation of ROS. PMID:16321805

  1. Hydra, a powerful model for aging studies

    PubMed Central

    Tomczyk, Szymon; Fischer, Kathleen; Austad, Steven; Galliot, Brigitte

    2015-01-01

    Cnidarian Hydra polyps escape senescence, most likely due to the robust activity of their three stem cell populations. These stem cells continuously self-renew in the body column and differentiate at the extremities following a tightly coordinated spatial pattern. Paul Brien showed in 1953 that in one particular species, Hydra oligactis, cold-dependent sexual differentiation leads to rapid aging and death. Here, we review the features of this inducible aging phenotype. These cellular alterations, detected several weeks after aging was induced, are characterized by a decreasing density of somatic interstitial cell derivatives, a disorganization of the apical nervous system, and a disorganization of myofibers of the epithelial cells. Consequently, tissue replacement required to maintain homeostasis, feeding behavior, and contractility of the animal are dramatically affected. Interestingly, this aging phenotype is not observed in all H. oligactis strains, thus providing a powerful experimental model for investigations of the genetic control of aging. Given the presence in the cnidarian genome of a large number of human orthologs that have been lost in ecdysozoans, such approaches might help uncover novel regulators of aging in vertebrates. PMID:26120246

  2. Dynamical Masses Demonstrate the Discordant Model Ages for Upper Scorpius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Ireland, Michael; Kraus, Adam L.; Dupuy, Trent J.

    2016-01-01

    We present the results of a long term orbit monitoring program, using sparse aperture masking observations taken with NIRC2 on the Keck-II telescope, of seven G to M-type members of the Upper Scorpius subgroup of the Sco-Cen OB association. We present astrometry and derived orbital elements of the binary systems we have monitored, and also determine the age, component masses, distance and reddening for each system using the orbital solutions and multi-band photometry, including Hubble Space Telescope photometry, and a Bayesian fitting procedure. We find that the models can be forced into agreement with any individual system by assuming an age, but that ageis not consistent across the mass range of our sample. The G-type binary systems in our sample have model ages of ~11.5 Myr, which is consistent with the latest age estimates for Upper Scorpius, while the M-type binary systems have significantly younger model ages of ~7 Myr. Based on our fits to the data, this age discrepancy in the models corresponds to a luminosity under-prediction of 0.8-0.15 dex, or equivalently an effective temperature over-prediction of 100-300 K for M-type stars at a given premain-sequence age.

  3. A SIRS epidemic model with infection-age dependence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Zhonghua; Peng, Jigen

    2007-07-01

    Based on J. Mena-Lorca and H.W. Hethcote's epidemic model, a SIRS epidemic model with infection-age-dependent infectivity and general nonlinear contact rate is formulated. Under general conditions, the unique existence of its global positive solutions is obtained. Moreover, under more general assumptions than the existing, the existence and asymptotical stability of its equilibria are discussed. In the end, the condition on the stability of endemic equilibrium is verified by a special model.

  4. Snow water equivalent modeling components in NewAge-JGrass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, G.; Kampf, S. K.; David, O.; Rigon, R.

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents a package of modified temperature-index-based snow water equivalent models as part of the hydrological modeling system NewAge-JGrass. Three temperature-based snow models are integrated into the NewAge-JGrass modeling system and use many of its components such as those for radiation balance (short wave radiation balance, SWRB), kriging (KRIGING), automatic calibration algorithms (particle swarm optimization) and tests of goodness of fit (NewAge-V), to build suitable modeling solutions (MS). Similarly to all the NewAge-JGrass components, the models can be executed both in raster and in vector mode. The simulation time step can be daily, hourly or sub-hourly, depending on user needs and availability of input data. The MS are applied on the Cache la Poudre River basin (CO, USA) using three test applications. First, daily snow water equivalent is simulated for three different measurement stations for two snow model formulations. Second, hourly snow water equivalent is simulated using all the three different snow model formulae. Finally, a raster mode application is performed to compute snow water equivalent maps for the whole Cache la Poudre Basin.

  5. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    PubMed Central

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

  6. Caring for people with dementia in residential aged care: successes with a composite person-centered care model featuring Montessori-based activities.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Gail; Morley, Catherine; Walters, Wendy; Malta, Sue; Doyle, Colleen

    2015-01-01

    Person-centered models of dementia care commonly merge aspects of existing models with additional influences from published and unpublished evidence and existing government policy. This study reports on the development and evaluation of one such composite model of person-centered dementia care, the ABLE model. The model was based on building the capacity and ability of residents living with dementia, using environmental changes, staff education and organizational and community engagement. Montessori principles were also used. The evaluation of the model employed mixed methods. Significant behavior changes were evident among residents of the dementia care Unit after the model was introduced, as were reductions in anti-psychotic and sedative medication. Staff reported increased knowledge about meeting the needs of people with dementia, and experienced organizational culture change that supported the ABLE model of care. Families were very satisfied with the changes. PMID:25499658

  7. A life span model of successful aging.

    PubMed

    Schulz, R; Heckhausen, J

    1996-07-01

    To lay the foundation for our model, we first describe existing conceptions of successful aging, underlying assumptions of development, and criteria for success. The model presented extends the discourse on this topic in three directions: (a) It frames the discussion of successful aging in the broader context of life course development; (b) it accounts for both normative and nonnormative (i.e., exceptional) success; and (c) it integrates motivational processes into a theory of successful aging. Successful aging is equated with the development and maintenance of primary control throughout the life course, which is achieved through control-related processes that optimize selection and failure compensation functions. Selection processes regulate the choice of action goals so that diversity is maintained and positive and negative trade-offs between performance domains and life stages are taken into account. Compensation mechanisms serve to maintain, enhance, and remediate competencies and motivational resources after failure experiences. Both compensation and selection processes are motivated by desires for primary control and can be characterized in terms of primary and secondary control processes. PMID:8694390

  8. Active Ageing: An Empirical Approach to the WHO Model

    PubMed Central

    Paúl, Constança; Ribeiro, Oscar; Teixeira, Laetitia

    2012-01-01

    Background. In the beginning of the 21st century, the world summit on population taking place in Madrid approved active ageing, WHO (2002) as the main objective of health and social policies for old people. Few studies have been done on the scientific validity of the construct. This study aims to validate the construct of active ageing and test empirically the WHO (2002) model of Active Ageing in a sample of community-dwelling seniors. Methods. 1322 old people living in the community were interviewed using an extensive assessment protocol to measure WHO's determinants of active ageing and performed an exploratory factor analysis followed by a confirmatory factor analyses. Results. We did not confirm the active ageing model, as most of the groups of determinants are either not independent or not significant. We got to a six-factor model (health, psychological component, cognitive performance, social relationships, biobehavioural component, and personality) explaining 54.6% of total variance. Conclusion. The present paper shows that there are objective as well as subjective variables contributing to active ageing and that psychological variables seem to give a very important contribute to the construct. The profile of active ageing is expected to vary between contexts and cultures and can be used to guide specific community and individually based interventions. PMID:23193396

  9. Cervical Cancer Screening Service Uptake and Associated Factors among Age Eligible Women in Mekelle Zone, Northern Ethiopia, 2015: A Community Based Study Using Health Belief Model

    PubMed Central

    Bayu, Hinsermu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer among women worldwide, with about 500,000 new patients diagnosed and over 250,000 deaths every year. Cervical cancer screening offers protective benefits and is associated with a reduction in the incidence of invasive cervical cancer and cervical cancer mortality. But there is very low participation rate in screening for cervical cancer among low and middle-income countries. Objective This study aimed to determine cervical cancer screening service uptake and its associated factor among age eligible women in Mekelle zone, northern Ethiopia, 2015. Methods A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in Mekelle zone among age eligible women from February to June 2015. Systematic sampling technique was used to select 1286 women in to the study. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was used to collect relevant data. Data was entered and cleaned using EPINFO and analyzed using SPSS version 20 software package. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess association between dependent and independent variables with 95% CI and p-value less than 0.05 was set for association. Results The study revealed that among 1186 age eligible women, only 235(19.8%) have been screened for cervical cancer. Age (AOR = 1.799, 95%CI = 1.182–2.739), history of multiple sexual partners (AOR = 1.635, 95%CI = 1.094–2.443), history of sexually transmitted disease (AOR = 1.635,95%CI = 1.094–2.443), HIV sero status (AOR = 5.614, 95%CI = 2.595–12.144), perceived susceptibility to cervical cancer (AOR = 2.225, 95%CI = 1.308–3.783), perceived barriers to premalignant cervical lesions screening (AOR = 2.256, 95%CI = 1.447–3.517) and knowledge on cervical cancer and screening (AOR = 2.355, 95%CI = 1.155–4.802) were significant predictors of cervical cancer screening service uptake. Conclusion Magnitude of cervical cancer screening service uptake among age eligible women is still unacceptably

  10. Age-Based Differences in Strategy Use in Choice Tasks

    PubMed Central

    Worthy, Darrell A.; Maddox, W. Todd

    2012-01-01

    We incorporated behavioral and computational modeling techniques to examine age-based differences in strategy use in two four-choice decision-making tasks. Healthy older (aged 60–82 years) and younger adults (aged 18–23 years) performed one of two decision-making tasks that differed in the degree to which rewards for each option depended on the choices made on previous trials. In the choice-independent task rewards for each choice were not affected by the sequence of previous choices that had been made. In contrast, in the choice-dependent task rewards for each option were based on how often each option had been chosen in the past. We compared the fits of a model that assumes the use of a win-stay–lose-shift (WSLS) heuristic to make decisions, to the fits of a reinforcement-learning (RL) model that compared expected reward values for each option to make decisions. Younger adults were best fit by the RL model, while older adults showed significantly more evidence of being best fit by the WSLS heuristic model. This led older adults to perform worse than younger adults in the choice-independent task, but better in the choice-dependent task. These results coincide with previous work in our labs that also found better performance for older adults in choice-dependent tasks (Worthy et al., 2011), and the present results suggest that qualitative age-based differences in the strategies used in choice tasks may underlie older adults’ advantage in choice-dependent tasks. We discuss possible factors behind these differences such as neurobiological changes associated with aging, and increased use of heuristics by older adults. PMID:22232573

  11. Age Dependent Absolute Plate and Plume Motion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, D. E.; Koppers, A. A. P.

    2015-12-01

    Current absolute plate motion (APM) models from 80 - 0 Ma are constrained by the location of mantle plume related hotspot seamounts, in particular those of the Hawaiian-Emperor and Louisville seamount trails. Originally the 'fixed' hotspot hypothesis was developed to explain past plate motion based on linear age progressive intra-plate volcanism. However, now that 'moving' hotspots are accepted, it is becoming clear that APM models need to be corrected for individual plume motion vectors. For older seamount trails that were active between roughly 50 and 80 Ma the APM models that use 'fixed' hotspots overestimate the measured age progression in those trails, while APM models corrected for 'moving' hotspots underestimate those age progressions. These mismatches are due to both a lack of reliable ages in the older portions of both the Hawaii and Louisville seamount trails and insufficient APM modeling constraints from other seamount trails in the Pacific Basin. Seamounts are difficult to sample and analyze because many are hydrothermally altered and have low potassium concentrations. New 40Ar/39Ar Age results from International Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expedition 330 Sites U1372 (n=18), U1375 (n=3), U1376 (n=15) and U1377 (n=7) aid in constraining the oldest end of the Louisville Seamount trail. A significant observation in this study is that the age range recovered in the drill cores match the range of ages that were acquired on dredging cruises at the same seamounts (e.g. Koppers et al., 2011). This is important for determining the inception age of a seamount. The sections recovered from IODP EXP 330 are in-situ volcanoclastic breccia and lava flows. Comparing the seismic interpretations of Louisville guyots (Contreras-Reyes et al., 2010), Holes U1372, U1373 and U1374 penetrated the extrusive and volcanoclastic sections of the seamount. The ages obtained are consistent over stratigraphic intervals >100-450 m thick, providing evidence that these seamounts

  12. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  13. Late exhumation of the Bergell pluton (Italian Alps): tectonics, climate change or Messinian base level drop? Insights from apatite (U-Th)/He ages determination and modeling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahéo, Gweltaz; Gautheron, Cécile; Hervé Leloup, Philippe; Tassant-Got, Laurent; Douville, Eric

    2010-05-01

    The Bergell pluton, is an elongated-shape granodioritic to tonalitic body emplaced during Oligocene time at 30-32 Ma along the Insubric Line in the south-central Alps. This intrusion is located immediately north of the Insubric fault, within a bloc delimited by a major strike slip and normal faults related to the eastward extrusion of the central and eastern Alps. The range lies north of the Italian great lakes, an area where the erosion related to the Messinian base-level drop is supposedly strong. In order to reconstruct the Miocene exhumation history of this pluton and to place constraints on the effect of Messinian base-level drop on erosion and uplift, we performed (U-Th)/He dating of 10 apatite samples from the Bergell area. Data from horizontal (constant elevation) profiles indicate that no significant E-W tilting occurred after ~9 Ma and that the present day relief, especially in the valley where the Insubric/Tonale line is located, is at least 9 Ma old. Apatite (U-Th)/He age versus elevation data from a vertical transect in the core of the pluton suggests a three phases exhumation/cooling history: (1) fast exhumation/cooling until 16-12 Ma, (2) slow exhumation/cooling and (3) fast exhumation/cooling after ~6 Ma. Simulations of the apatite He ages versus elevation relationship, using a trial and error method, confirm these three exhumation/cooling phases. It furthermore suggests that the final exhumation stage initiated between 4 and 6 Ma ago, and continued at a relatively high rate until present time. By comparing this timing with the onset of major climatic, tectonic and base level drop events recognized in the Southern Alps, we propose that the Messinian base-level drop has initiated the late exhumation of the Bergell. However, as this event is relatively short (less than 1 Myr) it cannot explain the post 4 Ma-high exhumation rate. It is thus suggested that the transition to a more variable climate initiating at 3-4 Ma might have maintained high erosion

  14. Reconciling Two Computational Models of Working Memory in Aging.

    PubMed

    Hoareau, Violette; Lemaire, Benoît; Portrat, Sophie; Plancher, Gaën

    2016-01-01

    It is well known that working memory performance changes with age. Two recent computational models of working memory, TBRS* and SOB-CS, developed from young adults WM performances are opposed regarding the postulated causes of forgetting, namely time-based decay and interference for TBRS* and SOB-CS, respectively. In the present study, these models are applied on a set of complex span data produced by young and older adults. As expected, these models are unable to account for the older adult data. An investigation on the effect of the main parameters of these models showed that the poorer performance of older adults does not come from a weaker encoding of item but rather from difficulties during the free time that immediately follows each distractor, as well as from a higher level of confusion between items. These results are discussed with respect to the current theories of working memory and aging. PMID:26748955

  15. Creating Better School-Age Care Jobs: Model Work Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haack, Peggy

    Built on the premise that good school-age care jobs are the cornerstone of high-quality services for school-age youth and their families, this guide presents model work standards for school-age care providers. The guide begins with a description of the strengths and challenges of the school-age care profession. The model work standards are…

  16. Age depth-model based on cyclostratigraphic analysis of gamma ray data for the past 675 ka in Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgarten, Henrike; Wonik, Thomas; Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Zanchetta, Giovanni

    2015-04-01

    characteristics of the data, spectral analysis was applied (sliding window method) and a temporal evolution of several emphasized wavelength was observed. These high amplitudes were linked with orbital cycles to calculate sedimentation rates which range from 45 cm/ka to 30 cm/ka. The effect of compaction was determined and corrected sedimentation rates (average increase of 14 %) after decompaction of the sediment layers were estimated. An age depth-model was generated, which is supported by several age control points from dating of tephra (40Ar/39Ar) in the cores and thereafter the sediments from 0 mblf to 240 mblf span 675 ka.

  17. Virginia Opossums, Minimum Reproduction Age and Predators in the Penna Aging Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altevolmer, A. K.

    Age-specific predators are introduced into the Penna model of biological aging. It is shown that populations with a variable minimum reproduction age find a stable state with an earlier onset of reproduction, if older ages are eaten by the predators. This behavior agrees with the demographic data of the Virgina opossum.

  18. The IVF Outcome Counseling Based on the Model Combining DHEAS and Age in Patients with Low AMH Prior to the First Cycle of GnRH Antagonist Protocol of Ovarian Stimulation

    PubMed Central

    Alebić, Miro Šimun; Žuvić-Butorac, Marta

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To investigate the endocrine and/or clinical characteristics of women with low anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) that could improve the accuracy of IVF outcome prediction based on the female age alone prior to the first GnRH antagonist IVF cycle. Methods. Medical records of 129 patients with low AMH level (<6.5 pmol/L) who underwent their first GnRH antagonist ovarian stimulation protocol for IVF/ICSI were retrospectively analyzed. The main outcome measure was the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) for the models combining age and other potential predictive factors for the clinical pregnancy. Results. Clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) per initiated cycles was 11.6%. For the prediction of clinical pregnancy, DHEAS and age showed AUC-ROC of 0.726 (95%CI 0.641–0.801) and 0.662 (95%CI 0.573–0.743), respectively (P = 0.522). The predictive accuracy of the model combining age and DHEAS (AUC-ROC 0.796; 95%CI 0.716–0.862) was significantly higher compared to that of age alone (P = 0.013). In patients <37.5 years with DHEAS >5.7 pmol/L, 60% (9/15) of all pregnancies were achieved with CPR of 37.5%. Conclusions. DHEAS appears to be predictive for clinical pregnancy in younger women (<37.5 years) with low AMH after the first GnRH antagonist IVF cycle. Therefore, DHEAS-age model could refine the pretreatment counseling on pregnancy prospects following IVF. PMID:23509455

  19. Age-depth model of the past 630 kyr for Lake Ohrid (FYROM/Albania) based on cyclostratigraphic analysis of downhole gamma ray data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgarten, H.; Wonik, T.; Tanner, D. C.; Francke, A.; Wagner, B.; Zanchetta, G.; Sulpizio, R.; Giaccio, B.; Nomade, S.

    2015-12-01

    Gamma ray (GR) fluctuations and potassium (K) values from downhole logging data obtained in the sediments of Lake Ohrid from 0 to 240 m below lake floor (b.l.f). correlate with fluctuations in δ18O values from the global benthic isotope stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). GR and K values are considered a reliable proxy to depict glacial-interglacial cycles, with high clastic input during cold and/or drier periods and high carbonate precipitation during warm and/or humid periods at Lake Ohrid. Spectral analysis was applied to investigate the climate signal and evolution over the length of the borehole. Linking downhole logging data with orbital cycles was used to estimate sedimentation rates and the effect of compaction was compensated for. Sedimentation rates increase on average by 14 % after decompaction of the sediment layers and the mean sedimentation rates shift from 45 cm kyr-1 between 0 and 110 m to 30 cm kyr-1 from 110 to 240 m b.l.f. Tuning of minima and maxima of gamma ray and potassium values versus LR04 extrema, in combination with eight independent tephrostratigraphical tie points, allows establishing of a robust age model for the downhole logging data over the past 630 kyr.

  20. Modeling sugarcane growth in response to age, insolation, and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    How, K.T.S.

    1986-01-01

    Modeling sugarcane growth in response to age of cane, insolation and air temperature using first-order multiple regression analysis and a nonlinear approach is investigated. Data are restricted to one variety from irrigated fields to eliminate the impact of varietal response and rainfall. Ten first-order models are investigated. The predictant is cane yield from 600 field tests. The predictors are cumulative values of insolation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for 3, 6, 12, and 18 months, or for each crop period derived from weather observations near the test plots. The low R-square values indicate that the selected predictor variables could not account for a substantial proportion of the variations of cane yield and the models have limited predictive values. The nonlinear model is based on known functional relationships between growth and age, growth and insolation, and growth and maximum temperature. A mathematical expression that integrates the effect of age, insolation and maximum temperature is developed. The constant terms and coefficients of the equation are determined from the requirement that the model must produce results that are reasonable when compared with observed monthly elongation data. The nonlinear model is validated and tested using another set of data.

  1. Reinvestigation of age model for relative paleointensity stack and application to Lake Baikal record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oda, H.

    2014-12-01

    The age model for relative paleointensity stack PISO-1500 (Channell et al., 2009) is based on IODP U1308 from North Atlantic. Channell et al. (2008) developed the age model for U1308 by correlating the benthic oxygen isotope curve with LR04 oxygen isotope stack (Lisiecki&Raymo, 2005). LR04 stack is known as oxygen isotope stack for benthic foraminifarra, whose age model is dependent on ice volume model with a certain time lag. On the other hand, Caballero-Gill et al. (2012) developed an absolute age model based on U-Th dating for stalagmites from China and correlated the oxygen isotope curve with that on planctonic foraminiferra for a deep-sea core from South China Sea. The age model based on absolute dating for stalagmite was then transfered to oxygen isotope curve of benthic forraminiferra for the same core. This enables to provide absolute age model on PISO-1500 for the past 350 kyrs. The resulting modified PISO-1500 was applied on paleomagnetic records from Lake Baikal to provide an age model based on relative paleointensity. Finally, this age model was compared with alternative age model based on correlation of biogenic silica record with insolation at the site (Prokopenko et al., 2006) and the reason for the discrepancy will be discussed.

  2. Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauter, Sally T.

    2011-01-01

    ). Dietary data on age-0 American shad and previously published reports on the diet of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Rondorf et al. 1990, USGS unpublished data) suggested there might be considerable dietary overlap between these species in the lower Columbia River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was interested in using the American shad bioenergetics model to explore hypotheses concerning dietary overlap between age-0 American shad and emigrating fall Chinook salmon. The second modeling application uses the fall Chinook salmon bioenergetics model (Koehler et al. 2006) to explore the growth potential of juvenile fall Chinook salmon predating on age-0 American shad in the lower Columbia River. This modeling was based dietary information on a small number of age-0 fall Chinook salmon (n = 13) collected in John Day Reservoir in 1994 - 1996 (unpublished USGS data). Analysis of this dietary data found that these salmonids were feeding primarily on age-0 American shad (> 75% by weight).

  3. Constraints on southern hemisphere tropical climate change during the Little Ice Age and Younger Dryas based on glacier modeling of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malone, Andrew G. O.; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Lowell, Thomas V.; Kelly, Meredith A.; Stroup, Justin S.

    2015-10-01

    Improving the late Quaternary paleoclimate record through climate interpretations of low-latitude glacier length changes advances our understanding of past climate change events and the mechanisms for past, present, and future climate change. Paleotemperature reconstructions at low-latitude glaciers are uniquely fruitful because they can provide both site-specific information and enhanced understanding of regional-scale variations due to the structure of the tropical atmosphere. We produce Little Ice Age (LIA) and Younger Dryas (YD) paleoclimate reconstructions for the Huancané outlet glacier of the Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) and low-latitude southern hemisphere regional sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using a coupled ice-flow and energy balance model. We also model the effects of long-term changes in the summit temperature and precipitiation rate and the effects of interannual climate variability on the Huancané glacier length. We find temperature to be the dominant climate driver of glacier length change. Also, we find that interannual climate variability cannot adequately explain glacier advances inferred from the geomorphic record, necessitating that these features were formed during past colder climates. To constrain our LIA reconstruction, we incorporate the QIC ice core record, finding a LIA air temperature cooling at the ice cap of between ˜0.7 °C and ˜1.1 °C and ˜0.4 °C and regional SSTs cooling of ˜0.6 °C. For the YD paleoclimate reconstructions, we propose two limits on the precipitation rate, since the ice core record does not extend into the Pleistocene: 1) the precipitation rate scales with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (upper limit on cooling) and 2) the precipitation rate increases by 40% (lower limit on cooling), which is an increase about twice as great as the regional increases realized in GCM simulations for the period. The first limit requires ˜1.6 °C cooling in ice cap air temperatures and ˜0.9 °C cooling in SSTs, and the

  4. Evolutionary model with genetics, aging, and knowledge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bustillos, Armando Ticona; de Oliveira, Paulo Murilo

    2004-02-01

    We represent a process of learning by using bit strings, where 1 bits represent the knowledge acquired by individuals. Two ways of learning are considered: individual learning by trial and error, and social learning by copying knowledge from other individuals or from parents in the case of species with parental care. The age-structured bit string allows us to study how knowledge is accumulated during life and its influence over the genetic pool of a population after many generations. We use the Penna model to represent the genetic inheritance of each individual. In order to study how the accumulated knowledge influences the survival process, we include it to help individuals to avoid the various death situations. Modifications in the Verhulst factor do not show any special feature due to its random nature. However, by adding years to life as a function of the accumulated knowledge, we observe an improvement of the survival rates while the genetic fitness of the population becomes worse. In this latter case, knowledge becomes more important in the last years of life where individuals are threatened by diseases. Effects of offspring overprotection and differences between individual and social learning can also be observed. Sexual selection as a function of knowledge shows some effects when fidelity is imposed.

  5. Mitochondrial DNA-deficient models and aging.

    PubMed

    Olgun, Abdullah; Akman, Serif

    2007-04-01

    Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) encodes 13 subunits of oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) enzyme complexes I, III, IV, and V except complex II. MtDNA is more sensitive to oxidative damage than nuclear DNA. MtDNA defects are involved in many pathologies including aging. Several mtDNA-deficient cell culture, yeast, and animal models were generated to study the role of mtDNA in many physiological processes. Ethidium bromide (EB), an agent that is known to inhibit mtDNA replication with a negligible effect on nuclear DNA, is generally used to generate mtDNA-deficient models. The antibiotics chloramphenicol and doxycycline, which were known to inhibit mitochondrial translation, were also used to generate the same phenotype. Cultured mtDNA-deficient cells need uridine and pyruvate to survive. At the organismal level, uridine can be supplemented, but pyruvate supplementation can cause a worser phenotype because of lactic acidosis. In C. elegans, EB, when used during larval development, increases life span, but decreases, when used after the beginning of adult stage. This should be kept in mind since mitochondria-related genes are generally detected in genome-wide screening studies for longevity. We believe that conditional knockout studies need to be carried out for these genes after reaching adulthood. MtDNA mutator mouse did not show an increase of free radical production. Therefore, the downstream phenomena to mtDNA defects are likely ineffective pyrimidine synthesis (dihydroorotate dehydrogenase, DHODH, needs a functional respiratory chain) and excess NADH (decreased NAD pool) in addition to free radicals. PMID:17460185

  6. From detachment to transtensional faulting: A model for the Lake Mead extensional domain based on new ages and correlation of subbasins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beard, L.; Umhoefer, P. J.; Martin, K. L.; Blythe, N.

    2007-12-01

    New studies of selected basins in the Miocene extensional belt of the northern Lake Mead domain suggest a new model for the early extensional history of the region (lower Horse Spring Formation and correlative strata). Critical data are from (i) Longwell Ridges area west of Overton Arm and within the Lake Mead fault system, (ii) Salt Spring Wash basin in the hanging wall of the South Virgin-White Hills detachment (SVWHD) fault, and (iii) previously studied subbasins of the south Virgin Mountains in the Gold Butte step-over region. The basins and faulting patterns suggest two stages of basin development related to two distinct faulting episodes, an early period of detachment faulting followed by a switch to faulting mainly along the Lake Mead transtensional fault system while detachment faulting waned. Apatite fission track ages suggest the footwall block of the SVWHD was cooling at 18-17 Ma, but the only evidence for basin deposition at that time is in the Gold Butte step-over where slow rates of sedimentation and facies patterns make faulting on the north side of the Gold Butte block ambiguous. The first basin stage was ca. 16.5 to 15.5 Ma, during which there was slow to moderate faulting and subsidence in a basin along the SVWHD and north of Gold Butte block in the Gold Butte step-over basin; the step- over basin had complex fluvial and lacustrine facies and was synchronous with landslides and debris flows in front of the SVWHD. At ca. 15.5-14.5 Ma, there was a [dramatic] increase in sedimentation rate related to formation of the Gold Butte fault, a change from lacustrine to widespread fluvial, playa, and local landslide facies in the step-over basin, and the peak of exhumation and faulting rates on the SVWHD. The simple step-over basin broke up into numerous subbasins [at[ as initial faults of the Lake Mead fault system formed. From 14.5 to 14.0 Ma, there was completion of a major change from dominantly detachment faulting to dominantly transtensional faulting

  7. Multiscale Concrete Modeling of Aging Degradation

    SciTech Connect

    Hammi, Yousseff; Gullett, Philipp; Horstemeyer, Mark F.

    2015-07-31

    In this work a numerical finite element framework is implemented to enable the integration of coupled multiscale and multiphysics transport processes. A User Element subroutine (UEL) in Abaqus is used to simultaneously solve stress equilibrium, heat conduction, and multiple diffusion equations for 2D and 3D linear and quadratic elements. Transport processes in concrete structures and their degradation mechanisms are presented along with the discretization of the governing equations. The multiphysics modeling framework is theoretically extended to the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) by introducing the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) and based on the XFEM user element implementation of Giner et al. [2009]. A damage model that takes into account the damage contribution from the different degradation mechanisms is theoretically developed. The total contribution of damage is forwarded to a Multi-Stage Fatigue (MSF) model to enable the assessment of the fatigue life and the deterioration of reinforced concrete structures in a nuclear power plant. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate the developed multiphysics user element implementation and the XFEM implementation of Giner et al. [2009].

  8. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  9. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-02-01

    Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

  10. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

  11. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section 1650.31 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD METHODS OF WITHDRAWING FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has...

  12. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section 1650.31 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD METHODS OF WITHDRAWING FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has...

  13. Aging.

    PubMed

    Park, Dong Choon; Yeo, Seung Geun

    2013-09-01

    Aging is initiated based on genetic and environmental factors that operate from the time of birth of organisms. Aging induces physiological phenomena such as reduction of cell counts, deterioration of tissue proteins, tissue atrophy, a decrease of the metabolic rate, reduction of body fluids, and calcium metabolism abnormalities, with final progression onto pathological aging. Despite the efforts from many researchers, the progression and the mechanisms of aging are not clearly understood yet. Therefore, the authors would like to introduce several theories which have gained attentions among the published theories up to date; genetic program theory, wear-and-tear theory, telomere theory, endocrine theory, DNA damage hypothesis, error catastrophe theory, the rate of living theory, mitochondrial theory, and free radical theory. Although there have been many studies that have tried to prevent aging and prolong life, here we introduce a couple of theories which have been proven more or less; food, exercise, and diet restriction. PMID:24653904

  14. Aging

    PubMed Central

    Park, Dong Choon

    2013-01-01

    Aging is initiated based on genetic and environmental factors that operate from the time of birth of organisms. Aging induces physiological phenomena such as reduction of cell counts, deterioration of tissue proteins, tissue atrophy, a decrease of the metabolic rate, reduction of body fluids, and calcium metabolism abnormalities, with final progression onto pathological aging. Despite the efforts from many researchers, the progression and the mechanisms of aging are not clearly understood yet. Therefore, the authors would like to introduce several theories which have gained attentions among the published theories up to date; genetic program theory, wear-and-tear theory, telomere theory, endocrine theory, DNA damage hypothesis, error catastrophe theory, the rate of living theory, mitochondrial theory, and free radical theory. Although there have been many studies that have tried to prevent aging and prolong life, here we introduce a couple of theories which have been proven more or less; food, exercise, and diet restriction. PMID:24653904

  15. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Claims based on attained age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS ADJUDICATION Pension, Compensation, and Dependency and Indemnity Compensation Evidence Requirements § 3.208 Claims based on attained age. In claims...

  16. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Claims based on attained age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS ADJUDICATION Pension, Compensation, and Dependency and Indemnity Compensation Evidence Requirements § 3.208 Claims based on attained age. In claims...

  17. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Claims based on attained age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS ADJUDICATION Pension, Compensation, and Dependency and Indemnity Compensation Evidence Requirements § 3.208 Claims based on attained age. In claims...

  18. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Claims based on attained age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS ADJUDICATION Pension, Compensation, and Dependency and Indemnity Compensation Evidence Requirements § 3.208 Claims based on attained age. In claims...

  19. Mixing in age-structured population models of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Glasser, John; Feng, Zhilan; Moylan, Andrew; Del Valle, Sara; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    Infectious diseases are controlled by reducing pathogen replication within or transmission between hosts. Models can reliably evaluate alternative strategies for curtailing transmission, but only if interpersonal mixing is represented realistically. Compartmental modelers commonly use convex combinations of contacts within and among groups of similarly aged individuals, respectively termed preferential and proportionate mixing. Recently published face-to-face conversation and time-use studies suggest that parents and children and co-workers also mix preferentially. As indirect effects arise from the off-diagonal elements of mixing matrices, these observations are exceedingly important. Accordingly, we refined the formula published by Jacquez et al. [19] to account for these newly-observed patterns and estimated age-specific fractions of contacts with each preferred group. As the ages of contemporaries need not be identical nor those of parents and children to differ by exactly the generation time, we also estimated the variances of the Gaussian distributions with which we replaced the Kronecker delta commonly used in theoretical studies. Our formulae reproduce observed patterns and can be used, given contacts, to estimate probabilities of infection on contact, infection rates, and reproduction numbers. As examples, we illustrate these calculations for influenza based on "attack rates" from a prospective household study during the 1957 pandemic and for varicella based on cumulative incidence estimated from a cross-sectional serological survey conducted from 1988-94, together with contact rates from the several face-to-face conversation and time-use studies. Susceptibility to infection on contact generally declines with age, but may be elevated among adolescents and adults with young children. PMID:22037144

  20. Late pleistocene ice age scenarios based on observational evidence

    SciTech Connect

    DeBlonde, G. ); Peltier, W.R. )

    1993-04-01

    Ice age scenarios for the last glacial interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. concerning atmospheric CO[sub 2] variations derived from the Vostok ice cores, are herein analyzed. Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets are simulated with an energy balance model (EBM) that is asynchronously coupled to vertically integrated ice sheets models based on the Glen flow law. The EBM includes both a realistic land-sea distribution and temperature-albedo feedback and is driven with orbital variations of effective solar insolation. With the addition of atmospheric CO[sub 2] and ocean heat flux variations, but not in their absence, a complete collapse is obtained for the Eurasian ice sheet but not for the North American ice sheet. We therefore suggest that further feedback mechanisms, perhaps involving more accurate modeling of the dynamics of the mostly marine-based Laurentide complex appears necessary to explain termination I. 96 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Age- and Gender-Based Populations

    MedlinePlus

    ... societal benefits of prevention, treatment, and recovery for mental and substance use disorders. Popular Programs, Campaigns, & Initiatives National Registry of Evidence-based Programs and Practices (NREPP) Medication-Assisted Treatment (MAT) Too Smart To ...

  2. Efficacy of Female Rat Models in Translational Cardiovascular Aging Research

    PubMed Central

    Rice, K. M.; Fannin, J. C.; Gillette, C.; Blough, E. R.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in women in the United States. Aging is a primary risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease as well as cardiovascular-related morbidity and mortality. Aging is a universal process that all humans undergo; however, research in aging is limited by cost and time constraints. Therefore, most research in aging has been done in primates and rodents; however it is unknown how well the effects of aging in rat models translate into humans. To compound the complication of aging gender has also been indicated as a risk factor for various cardiovascular diseases. This review addresses the systemic pathophysiology of the cardiovascular system associated with aging and gender for aging research with regard to the applicability of rat derived data for translational application to human aging. PMID:25610649

  3. AGING PERFORMANCE OF MODEL 9975 PACKAGE FLUOROELASTOMER O-RINGS

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, E.; Daugherty, W.; Skidmore, E.; Dunn, K.; Fisher, D.

    2011-05-31

    The influence of temperature and radiation on Viton{reg_sign} GLT and GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings is an ongoing research focus at the Savannah River National Laboratory. The O-rings are credited for leaktight containment in the Model 9975 shipping package used for transportation of plutonium-bearing materials. At the Savannah River Site, the Model 9975 packages are being used for interim storage. Primary research efforts have focused on surveillance of O-rings from actual packages, leak testing of seals at bounding aging conditions and the effect of aging temperature on compression stress relaxation behavior, with the goal of service life prediction for long-term storage conditions. Recently, an additional effort to evaluate the effect of aging temperature on the oxidation of the materials has begun. Degradation in the mechanical properties of elastomers is directly related to the oxidation of the polymer. Sensitive measurements of the oxidation rate can be performed in a more timely manner than waiting for a measurable change in mechanical properties, especially at service temperatures. Measuring the oxidation rate therefore provides a means to validate the assumption that the degradation mechanisms(s) do not change from the elevated temperatures used for accelerated aging and the lower service temperatures. Monitoring the amount of oxygen uptake by the material over time at various temperatures can provide increased confidence in lifetime predictions. Preliminary oxygen consumption analysis of a Viton GLT-based fluoroelastomer compound (Parker V0835-75) using an Oxzilla II differential oxygen analyzer in the temperature range of 40-120 C was performed. Early data suggests oxygen consumption rates may level off within the first 100,000 hours (10-12 years) at 40 C and that sharp changes in the degradation mechanism (stress-relaxation) are not expected over the temperature range examined. This is consistent with the known long-term heat aging resistance of

  4. Base Flow Model Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sinha, Neeraj; Brinckman, Kevin; Jansen, Bernard; Seiner, John

    2011-01-01

    A method was developed of obtaining propulsive base flow data in both hot and cold jet environments, at Mach numbers and altitude of relevance to NASA launcher designs. The base flow data was used to perform computational fluid dynamics (CFD) turbulence model assessments of base flow predictive capabilities in order to provide increased confidence in base thermal and pressure load predictions obtained from computational modeling efforts. Predictive CFD analyses were used in the design of the experiments, available propulsive models were used to reduce program costs and increase success, and a wind tunnel facility was used. The data obtained allowed assessment of CFD/turbulence models in a complex flow environment, working within a building-block procedure to validation, where cold, non-reacting test data was first used for validation, followed by more complex reacting base flow validation.

  5. Gene expression-based biomarkers for Anopheles gambiae age grading.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-Hui; Marinotti, Osvaldo; Zhong, Daibin; James, Anthony A; Walker, Edward; Guda, Tom; Kweka, Eliningaya J; Githure, John; Yan, Guiyun

    2013-01-01

    Information on population age structure of mosquitoes under natural conditions is fundamental to the understanding of vectorial capacity and crucial for assessing the impact of vector control measures on malaria transmission. Transcriptional profiling has been proposed as a method for predicting mosquito age for Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes, however, whether this new method is adequate for natural conditions is unknown. This study tests the applicability of transcriptional profiling for age-grading of Anopheles gambiae, the most important malaria vector in Africa. The transcript abundance of two An. gambiae genes, AGAP009551 and AGAP011615, was measured during aging under laboratory and field conditions in three mosquito strains. Age-dependent monotonic changes in transcript levels were observed in all strains evaluated. These genes were validated as age-grading biomarkers using the mark, release and recapture (MRR) method. The MRR method determined a good correspondence between actual and predicted age, and thus demonstrated the value of age classifications derived from the transcriptional profiling of these two genes. The technique was used to establish the age structure of mosquito populations from two malaria-endemic areas in western Kenya. The population age structure determined by the transcriptional profiling method was consistent with that based on mosquito parity. This study demonstrates that the transcription profiling method based on two genes is valuable for age determination of natural mosquitoes, providing a new approach for determining a key life history trait of malaria vectors. PMID:23936017

  6. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population.

  7. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

    SciTech Connect

    Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

  8. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans.

    PubMed

    Shagina, N B; Tolstykh, E I; Degteva, M O; Anspaugh, L R; Napier, B A

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitations for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on (90)Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has a similar structure to the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly re-evaluated: gastrointestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0-80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general populations exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes. PMID:25574605

  9. The OMS3 JGrass-NewAge Environmental Modelling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, G.; David, O.; Rigon, R.

    2012-12-01

    The need for integrated analysis, and the multiplicity of possible goals in analyses that require hydro-biophysical modelling, necessitates more than ever the capability of composing modelling solutions with parts of known quality, which are transparent to users and consist of reusable model components. Moreover, modern hydrological modelling requires interaction with GIS tools to allow visualizations and the data-processing necessary to synthesise knowledge from high volumes of inputs and outputs data. Last but not least, doing science that is reproducible has requirements that go beyond the computational issues to embrace the possibility to inspection the tools, and easy compare modelling solutions by third party groups. The JGrass-NewAge system was born in order to satisfy these requirements. It is based on the geographic information system uDig-JGrass, and is composed of two parts: (i) the system of visualization of the data and of the results based on uDig; (ii) the modelling components. The latter are implemented as OMS3 components which can be connected or excluded at runtime, according to the needs and works seamlessly inside the uDig Spatial Toolbox. The system is based on a hillslope-link geometrical partition of the landscape, thus the basic unit, where the water budget is evaluated, is the hillslope, and each one of them drains into a single associated link rather than cells or pixels. To this conceptual partition corresponds an implementation of informatics that uses vectorial features for channels, and raster data for hillslopes. The mass budget for each hillslope can be performed in two ways: according to a modification of Duffy dynamical model of hillslope runoff or according to HyMod lumped model. Differently from traditional rainfall-runoff models where the discharge is usually given at the outlet of a catchment, the discharge is evaluated in each link of the river network according to a procedure presented in Cuencas model. The system includes

  10. Constraining age and rate of deformation in the northern Bolivian Andes from cross sections, cooling ages, and thermokinematic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McQuarrie, N.; Ehlers, T. A.; Rak, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    A critical component in assessing the viability of proposed plate tectonic or geodynamic processes in regions of convergence is the expected or predicted age and rate of deformation in the overriding plate. Commonly, age of deformation is inferred through geochronology of foreland basin and wedge-top sedimentary rocks and bedrock thermochronometer cooling signals. In Bolivia the original pulse of deformation of the fold-thrust belt is argue to be as young as 38-25 Ma based on the age of synorogenic strata or as old as 65-45 Ma due to proposed foreland basin rocks deposited in the Bolivian Altiplano. The large discrepancies in proposed age, rate and magnitude of deformation through the Bolivian Andes limit our ability to relate age and rate of shortening to internal geodynamic or external plate tectonic processes. We evaluate permissible ranges in age of initiation and rate of deformation through a forward kinematic model of the northern Bolivian fold-thrust belt. Each step of deformation accounts for isostatic loading from thrust faults and subsequent erosional of structural highs. The kinematic model predicts an evolution of flexural basins into which synorogenic sediments are deposited allowing us to fully integrate age of exhumation and deposition to age and magnitude of deformation. By assigning an age to each deformation step, we create a range of velocity vectors that are input into the thermokinematic model Pecube, which predicts thermochronometer cooling histories based on kinematics, topography, thermal parameters and shortening rates. We match the pattern of predicted ages with the across strike pattern of measured zircon fission track, apatite fission track and apatite (U-Th)/ He cooling ages. The sensitivity of modeled thermochronologic data to the age at which deformation initiates indicate that northern Bolivian EC started deforming at 50 Ma and may have begun as early as 55 Ma. The acceptable velocity envelope for the modeled section permits either a

  11. A network model of human aging: Limits, errors, and information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farrell, Spencer; Mitnitski, Arnold; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew

    The Frailty Index (FI) quantifies human aging using the fraction of accumulated age-related deficits. The FI correlates strongly with mortality and accumulates non-linearly and stochastically with age. Clinical data shows a nearly universal limit of FI <= 0 . 7 . We computationally model an aging population using a network model of interacting deficits. Deficits damage and repair at rates that depend upon the average damage of connected nodes. The model is parametrized to fit clinical data. We find that attribution errors, especially false negative, allow the model to recover the frailty limit. Mutual information allows us to assess how well the FI can predict mortality. Mutual information provides a non-parametric measure of how the FI predicts mortality. We find that attribution errors have a small effect on the mutual information when many deficits are included in the model. The mutual information of our model and of the clinical data are comparable.

  12. An Age-Graded Model for Career Development Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuckman, Bruce W.

    This paper presents a career developmental model covering the ages of 5 to 18. Career development education includes experiences which facilitate self-awareness, career-awareness and career decision-making. Before choosing a model for career development, it is necessary to decide on a model for child development. The model developed here borrows…

  13. A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper we discuss a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates or risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks.

  14. Nutraceutical Interventions for Promoting Healthy Aging in Invertebrate Models

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Yuqing; Guha, Sujay; Sun, Xiaoping; Cao, Min; Wang, Xiaoxia; Zou, Sige

    2012-01-01

    Aging is a complex and inevitable biological process that is associated with numerous chronically debilitating health effects. Development of effective interventions for promoting healthy aging is an active but challenging area of research. Mechanistic studies in various model organisms, noticeably two invertebrates, Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster, have identified many genes and pathways as well as dietary interventions that modulate lifespan and healthspan. These studies have shed light on some of the mechanisms involved in aging processes and provide valuable guidance for developing efficacious aging interventions. Nutraceuticals made from various plants contain a significant amount of phytochemicals with diverse biological activities. Phytochemicals can modulate many signaling pathways that exert numerous health benefits, such as reducing cancer incidence and inflammation, and promoting healthy aging. In this paper, we outline the current progress in aging intervention studies using nutraceuticals from an evolutionary perspective in invertebrate models. PMID:22991584

  15. The analysis of aging skin based on multiphoton microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shulian; Li, Hui; Zhang, Xiaoman; Li, Zhifang; Xu, Shufei

    2010-11-01

    Aging is a very important issue not only in dermatology, but also in cosmetic science. Cutaneous aging involves both chronological and photoaging aging process. The chronological aging is induced with the passage of time. And the photoaging skin is the extrinsic aging caused by sun exposure. The aim of this study is to use multiphoton microscopy (MPM) in vivo to assess intrinsic-age-related and photo-age-related difference. The changes of dermal collagen are measured in quantitively. The algorithm that we used automatically produced the transversal dermal map from MPM. Others, the texture of dermis are analyzed by Fourier transform and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix. And the object extraction in textured images is proposed based on the method in object edge extraction, and the aim of it is to detect the object hidden in the skin texture in difference aging skin. The result demonstrates that the approach is effective in detecting the object in epidermis and dermis textured image in different aging skin. It could help to further understand the aging mechanism.

  16. Population-Based Age Group Specific Annual Incidence Rates of Symptomatic Age-Related Macular Degeneration

    PubMed Central

    Saari, Jukka M

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To study the population-based annual incidence rates of exudative, dry and all cases of symptomatic age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in different age and sex groups. Methods. This is a one year, prospective, population-based study on all consecutive new patients with AMD in the hospital district of Central Finland. The diagnosis was confirmed in all patients with slit lamp biomicroscopy, optical coherence tomography (OCT) using a Spectralis HRA + OCT device, and the Heidelberg Eye Explorer 1.6.2.0 program. Fluorescein angiograms were taken when needed. Results. The population-based annual incidence rates of all cases of symptomatic AMD increased from 0.03% (95% CI, 0.01-0.05%) in the age group 50-59 years to 0.82% (95% CI, 0.55-1.09%) in the age group 85-89 years and were 0.2% (95% CI, 0.17-0.24%) in exudative, 0.11% (95% CI, 0.09-0.14%) in dry, and 0.32% (95% CI, 0.28-0.36%) in all cases of AMD in the age group 60 years and older. During the next 20 years in Central Finland the population-based annual incidence rates can be estimated to increase to 0.27% (95% CI, 0.24-0.30%) in exudative, to 0.13% (95% CI, 0.11-0.15%) in dry, and to 0.41% (95% CI, 0.37-0.45%) in all cases of AMD in the age group 60 years and older. The population-based annual incidence of AMD did not show statistically significant differences between males and females (p>0.1). Conclusion: The population-based age-group specific annual incidence rates of symptomatic AMD of this study may help to plan health care provision for patients of AMD. PMID:25674187

  17. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  18. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. ); Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  19. Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Age and Gender

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Martin C.S.; Ching, Jessica Y.L.; Chan, Victor C.W.; Lam, Thomas Y.T.; Luk, Arthur K.C.; Wong, Sunny H.; Ng, Siew C.; Ng, Simon S.M.; Wu, Justin C.Y.; Chan, Francis K.L.; Sung, Joseph J.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We evaluated whether age- and gender-based colorectal cancer screening is cost-effective. Recent studies in the United States identified age and gender as 2 important variables predicting advanced proximal neoplasia, and that women aged <60 to 70 years were more suited for sigmoidoscopy screening due to their low risk of proximal neoplasia. Yet, quantitative assessment of the incremental benefits, risks, and cost remains to be performed. Primary care screening practice (2008–2015). A Markov modeling was constructed using data from a screening cohort. The following strategies were compared according to the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for 1 life-year saved: flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) 5 yearly; colonoscopy 10 yearly; FS for each woman at 50- and 55-year old followed by colonoscopy at 60- and 70-year old; FS for each woman at 50-, 55-, 60-, and 65-year old followed by colonoscopy at 70-year old; FS for each woman at 50-, 55-, 60-, 65-, and 70-year old. All male subjects received colonoscopy at 50-, 60-, and 70-year old under strategies 3 to 5. From a hypothetical population of 100,000 asymptomatic subjects, strategy 2 could save the largest number of life-years (4226 vs 2268 to 3841 by other strategies). When compared with no screening, strategy 5 had the lowest ICER (US$42,515), followed by strategy 3 (US$43,517), strategy 2 (US$43,739), strategy 4 (US$47,710), and strategy 1 (US$56,510). Strategy 2 leads to the highest number of bleeding and perforations, and required a prohibitive number of colonoscopy procedures. Strategy 5 remains the most cost-effective when assessed with a wide range of deterministic sensitivity analyses around the base case. From the cost effectiveness analysis, FS for women and colonoscopy for men represent an economically favorable screening strategy. These findings could inform physicians and policy-makers in triaging eligible subjects for risk-based screening, especially in countries with limited colonoscopic

  20. Cohort profile: The Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II).

    PubMed

    Bertram, Lars; Böckenhoff, Anke; Demuth, Ilja; Düzel, Sandra; Eckardt, Rahel; Li, Shu-Chen; Lindenberger, Ulman; Pawelec, Graham; Siedler, Thomas; Wagner, Gert G; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

    2014-06-01

    Similar to other industrialized countries, Germany's population is ageing. Whereas some people enjoy good physical and cognitive health into old age, others suffer from a multitude of age-related disorders and impairments which reduce life expectancy and affect quality of life. To identify and characterize the factors associated with 'healthy' vs. 'unhealthy' ageing, we have launched the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II), a multidisciplinary and multi-institutional project that ascertains a large number of ageing-related variables from a wide range of different functional domains. Phenotypic assessments include factors related to geriatrics and internal medicine, immunology, genetics, psychology, sociology and economics. Baseline recruitment of the BASE-II cohort was recently completed and has led to the sampling of 1600 older adults (age range 60-80 years), as well as 600 younger adults (20-35 years) serving as the basic population for in-depth analyses. BASE-II data are linked to the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), a long-running panel survey representative of the German population, to estimate sample selectivity. A major goal of BASE-II is to facilitate collaboration with other research groups by freely sharing relevant phenotypic and genotypic data with qualified outside investigators. PMID:23505255

  1. Probabilistically Constraining Age-Depth-Models of Glaciogenic Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J.; van der Bilt, W.; Tingley, M.

    2015-12-01

    Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting. All of these proxies, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments do carry some inherent dating uncertainty that is not always fully accounted for. Considerable advances could be achieved if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled, also for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Werner and Tingley (2015) demonstrated how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. In their method, probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments (Werner and Tingley 2015) show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. We show how this novel method can be applied to high resolution, sub-annually sampled lacustrine sediment records to constrain their respective age depth models. The results help to quantify the signal content and extract the regionally representative signal. The single time series can then be used as the basis for a reconstruction of glacial activity. van der Bilt et al. in prep. Werner, J.P. and Tingley, M.P. Clim. Past (2015)

  2. Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

    We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

  3. The aging feline kidney: a model mortality antagonist?

    PubMed

    Lawler, Dennis F; Evans, Richard H; Chase, Kevin; Ellersieck, Mark; Li, Qinghong; Larson, Brian T; Satyaraj, Ebenezer; Heininger, Kurt

    2006-12-01

    Traditional thinking views apparently non-programmed disruptions of aging, which medical science calls geriatric diseases, as separate from 'less harmful' morphological and physiological aging phenotypes that are more universally expected with passage of time (loss of skin elasticity, graying of hair coat, weight gain, increased sleep time, behavioral changes, etc). Late-life disease phenotypes, especially those involving chronic processes, frequently are complex and very energy-expensive. A non-programmed process of homeostatic disruption leading into a death trajectory seems inconsistent with energy intensive processes. That is, evolutionary mechanisms do not favor complex and prolonged energy investment in death. Taking a different view, the naturally occurring feline (Felis silvestris catus) renal model suggests that at least some diseases of late life represent only the point of failure in essentially survival-driven adaptive processes. In the feline renal model, individuals that succumbed to failure most frequently displayed progressive tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis, but had longer mean life span than cats that died from other causes. Additionally, among cats that died from non-renal causes, those that had degrees of renal tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis also had longer mean life span than those cats with no changes, even though causes of death differed minimally between these latter two groups. The data indicate that selective tubular deletion very frequently begins early in adult life, without a clear initiating phase or event. The observations support a hypothesis that this prolonged process may be intrinsic and protective prior to an ultimate point of failure. Moreover, given the genetic complexity and the interplay with associated risk factors, existing data also do not support the ideas that these changes are simple compensatory responses and that breed- or strain-based 'default' diseases are inevitable

  4. Using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling to address nonlinear kinetics and changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation in deriving reference values for propylene glycol methyl ether and propylene glycol methyl ether acetate.

    SciTech Connect

    Kirman, C R.; Sweeney, Lisa M.; Corley, Rick A.; Gargas, M L.

    2005-04-01

    Reference values, including an oral reference dose (RfD) and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC), were derived for propylene glycol methyl ether (PGME), and an oral RfD was derived for its acetate (PGMEA). These values were based upon transient sedation observed in F344 rats and B6C3F1 mice during a two-year inhalation study. The dose-response relationship for sedation was characterized using internal dose measures as predicted by a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PGME and its acetate. PBPK modeling was used to account for changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation, based on data collected during weeks 1, 2, 26, 52, and 78 of a chronic inhalation study. The peak concentration of PGME in richly perfused tissues was selected as the most appropriate internal dose measure based upon a consideration of the mode of action for sedation and similarities in tissue partitioning between brain and other richly perfused tissues. Internal doses (peak tissue concentrations of PGME) were designated as either no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (LOAELs) based upon the presence or absence of sedation at each time-point, species, and sex in the two year study. Distributions of the NOAEL and LOAEL values expressed in terms of internal dose were characterized using an arithmetic mean and standard deviation, with the mean internal NOAEL serving as the basis for the reference values, which was then divided by appropriate uncertainty factors. Where data were permitting, chemical-specific adjustment factors were derived to replace default uncertainty factor values of ten. Nonlinear kinetics are were predicted by the model in all species at PGME concentrations exceeding 100 ppm, which complicates interspecies and low-dose extrapolations. To address this complication, reference values were derived using two approaches which differ with respect to the order in which these extrapolations

  5. Translating CFC-based piston ages into probability density functions of ground-water age in karst

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2006-01-01

    Temporal age distributions are equivalent to probability density functions (PDFs) of transit time. The type and shape of a PDF provides important information related to ground-water mixing at the well or spring and the complex nature of flow networks in karst aquifers. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentrations measured for samples from 12 locations in the karstic Madison aquifer were used to evaluate the suitability of various PDF types for this aquifer. Parameters of PDFs could not be estimated within acceptable confidence intervals for any of the individual sites. Therefore, metrics derived from CFC-based apparent ages were used to evaluate results of PDF modeling in a more general approach. The ranges of these metrics were established as criteria against which families of PDFs could be evaluated for their applicability to different parts of the aquifer. Seven PDF types, including five unimodal and two bimodal models, were evaluated. Model results indicate that unimodal models may be applicable to areas close to conduits that have younger piston (i.e., apparent) ages and that bimodal models probably are applicable to areas farther from conduits that have older piston ages. The two components of a bimodal PDF are interpreted as representing conduit and diffuse flow, and transit times of as much as two decades may separate these PDF components. Areas near conduits may be dominated by conduit flow, whereas areas farther from conduits having bimodal distributions probably have good hydraulic connection to both diffuse and conduit flow. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Cellular models and therapies for age-related macular degeneration

    PubMed Central

    Forest, David L.; Johnson, Lincoln V.; Clegg, Dennis O.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a complex neurodegenerative visual disorder that causes profound physical and psychosocial effects. Visual impairment in AMD is caused by the loss of retinal pigmented epithelium (RPE) cells and the light-sensitive photoreceptor cells that they support. There is currently no effective treatment for the most common form of this disease (dry AMD). A new approach to treating AMD involves the transplantation of RPE cells derived from either human embryonic or induced pluripotent stem cells. Multiple clinical trials are being initiated using a variety of cell therapies. Although many animal models are available for AMD research, most do not recapitulate all aspects of the disease, hampering progress. However, the use of cultured RPE cells in AMD research is well established and, indeed, some of the more recently described RPE-based models show promise for investigating the molecular mechanisms of AMD and for screening drug candidates. Here, we discuss innovative cell-culture models of AMD and emerging stem-cell-based therapies for the treatment of this vision-robbing disease. PMID:26035859

  7. Age dependency of base modification in rabbit liver DNA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yamamoto, O.; Fuji, I.; Yoshida, T.; Cox, A. B.; Lett, J. T.

    1988-01-01

    Age-related modifications of DNA bases have been observed in the liver of the New Zealand white (NZW) rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), a lagomorph with a median life span in captivity of 5-7 yr. The ages of the animals studied ranged from 6 wk to 9 yr. After the DNA had been extracted from the liver cell nuclei and hydrolyzed with acid, the bases were analyzed by column chromatography with Cellulofine gels (GC-15-m). Two peaks in the chromatogram, which eluted before the four DNA bases, contained modified bases. Those materials, which were obtained in relatively large amounts from old animals, were highly fluorescent, and were shown to be crosslinked base products by mass spectrometry. The yield of crosslinked products versus rabbit age (greater than 0.5 yr) can be fitted by an exponential function (correlation coefficient: 0.76 +/- 0.09).

  8. Model based manipulator control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petrosky, Lyman J.; Oppenheim, Irving J.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using model based control (MBC) for robotic manipulators was investigated. A double inverted pendulum system was constructed as the experimental system for a general study of dynamically stable manipulation. The original interest in dynamically stable systems was driven by the objective of high vertical reach (balancing), and the planning of inertially favorable trajectories for force and payload demands. The model-based control approach is described and the results of experimental tests are summarized. Results directly demonstrate that MBC can provide stable control at all speeds of operation and support operations requiring dynamic stability such as balancing. The application of MBC to systems with flexible links is also discussed.

  9. Oxidative Stress, Aging and CNS disease in the Canine Model of Human Brain Aging

    PubMed Central

    Head, Elizabeth; Rofina, Jaime; Zicker, Steven

    2008-01-01

    SYNOPSIS Decline in cognitive functions that accompany aging in dogs may have a biological basis, and many of the disorders associated with aging in canines may be mitigated through dietary modifications that incorporate specific nutraceuticals. Based on previous research and the results of both laboratory and clinical studies – antioxidants may be one class of nutraceutical that provides benefits to aged dogs. Brains of aged dogs accumulate oxidative damage to proteins and lipids, which may lead to dysfunction of neuronal cells. The production of free radicals and lack of increase in compensatory antioxidant enzymes may lead to detrimental modifications to important macromolecules within neurons. Reducing oxidative damage through food ingredients rich in a broad spectrum of antioxidants significantly improves, or slows the decline of, learning and memory in aged dogs. However, determining all effective compounds and combinations, dosage ranges, as well as when to initiate intervention and long term effects constitute gaps in our current knowledge. PMID:18249248

  10. A micrometeorite erosion model and the age of Saturn's rings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Northrop, T. G.; Connerney, J. E. P.

    1987-01-01

    An erosional model of Saturn's rings is proposed based on theoretical studies of the high charge-to-mass ratio particles in Saturn's ring plane, and assuming that the B and C rings were initially formed as one ring with the optical thickness of the present B ring. The erosion rate is calculated using data from observed micrometeorite fluxes, and a ring age of 4.4-76 Myr is determined which is inconsistent with the 4.5-Gyr ring lifetime required by the cosmogonic ring hypothesis. The sharpness of the transition between the B and C rings suggests that the principal mass loss is through particles moving at a few m/sec with respect to the parent bodies from which they were eroded.

  11. Aging mechanism in model Pickering emulsion.

    PubMed

    Fouilloux, Sarah; Malloggi, Florent; Daillant, Jean; Thill, Antoine

    2016-01-21

    We study the stability of a model Pickering emulsion system using fluorinated oil and functionalized silica nanoparticles. A special counter-flow microfluidic set-up was used to prepare monodisperse oil droplets in water. The wettability of the monodisperse silica nanoparticles (NPs) could be tuned by surface grafting and the surface coverage of the droplets was controlled using the microfluidic setup. For surface coverage as low as 23%, we observed a regime of Pickering emulsion stability where the surface coverage of emulsion droplets of constant size increases with time, coexisting with an excess of oil phase. Our results demonstrate that the previously observed limited coalescence regime where surface coverage tends to control the average size of the final droplets must be put in a broader perspective. PMID:26549639

  12. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy.

    PubMed

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population. PMID:27293889

  13. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population. PMID:27293889

  14. Exact solution of an evolutionary model without aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onody, Roberto N.; de Medeiros, Nazareno G. F.

    1999-09-01

    We introduce an age-structured asexual population model containing all the relevant features of evolutionary aging theories. Beneficial as well as deleterious mutations, heredity, and arbitrary fecundity are present and managed by natural selection. An exact solution without aging is found. We show that fertility is associated with generalized forms of the Fibonacci sequence, while mutations and natural selection are merged into an integral equation which is solved by Fourier series. Average survival probabilities and Malthusian growth exponents are calculated and indicate that the system may exhibit mutational meltdown. The relevance of the model in the context of fissile reproduction groups like many protozoa and coelenterates is discussed.

  15. The Development of Small Primate Models for Aging Research

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Kathleen E.; Austad, Steven N.

    2015-01-01

    Nonhuman primate (NHP) aging research has traditionally relied mainly on the rhesus macaque. But the long lifespan, low reproductive rate, and relatively large body size of macaques and related Old World monkeys make them less than ideal models for aging research. Manifold advantages would attend the use of smaller, more rapidly developing, shorter-lived NHP species in aging studies, not the least of which are lower cost and the ability to do shorter research projects. Arbitrarily defining “small” primates as those weighing less than 500 g, we assess small, relatively short-lived species among the prosimians and callitrichids for suitability as models for human aging research. Using the criteria of availability, knowledge about (and ease of) maintenance, the possibility of genetic manipulation (a hallmark of 21st century biology), and similarities to humans in the physiology of age-related changes, we suggest three species—two prosimians (Microcebus murinus and Galago senegalensis) and one New World monkey (Callithrix jacchus)—that deserve scrutiny for development as major NHP models for aging studies. We discuss one other New World monkey group, Cebus spp., that might also be an effective NHP model of aging as these species are longer-lived for their body size than any primate except humans. PMID:21411860

  16. The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

    PubMed

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-11-01

    Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms. PMID:26362219

  17. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    PubMed

    Li, Guoqi; Zhao, Daxuan; Xu, Yi; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables. PMID:26382594

  18. Overview of Modeling and Simulations of Plutonium Aging

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, A J; Wolfer, W G

    2007-04-24

    . The alpha particle traverses the lattice, slowly loosing energy through electronic excitations, acquiring two electrons to become a helium atom, then finally coming to rest approximately 10 microns away with the generation of a few-hundred Frenkel pairs. The uranium recoil immediately displaces a couple-thousand Pu atoms from their original lattice sites. This process, which occurs at a rate of approximately 41 parts-per-million per year, is the source of potential property changes in aging plutonium. Plutonium aging encompasses many areas of research: radiation damage and radiation effects, diffusion of point defects, impurities and alloying elements, solid state phase transformations, dislocation dynamics and mechanical properties, equations of state under extreme pressures, as well as surface oxidation and corrosion. Theory, modeling, and computer simulations are involved to various degrees in many of these areas. The joint research program carried out at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory encompassed experimental measurements of numerous properties of newly fabricated reference alloys, archival material that have accumulated the effects of several decades of radioactive decay, and accelerated aging alloys in which the isotropic composition was adjusted to increase the rate of self-irradiation damage. In particular, the physical and chemical processes of nuclear materials degradation were to be studied individually and in great depth. Closely coupled to the experimental efforts are theory, modeling, and simulations. These efforts, validated by the experiments, aim to develop predictive models to evaluate the effects of age on the properties of plutonium. The need to obtain a scientific understanding of plutonium aging has revitalized fundamental research on actinides and plutonium in particular. For example, the experimental discovery of superconductivity in Pu-based compounds, the observation of helium bubbles in naturally

  19. Invertebrates as model organisms for research on aging biology

    PubMed Central

    Murthy, Mahadev; Ram, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Invertebrate model systems, such as nematodes and fruit flies, have provided valuable information about the genetics and cellular biology involved in aging. However, limitations of these simple, genetically tractable organisms suggest the need for other model systems, some of them invertebrate, to facilitate further advances in the understanding of mechanisms of aging and longevity in mammals, including humans. This paper introduces 10 review articles about the use of invertebrate model systems for the study of aging by authors who participated in an ‘NIA-NIH symposium on aging in invertebrate model systems’ at the 2013 International Congress for Invertebrate Reproduction and Development. In contrast to the highly derived characteristics of nematodes and fruit flies as members of the superphylum Ecdysozoa, cnidarians, such as Hydra, are more ‘basal’ organisms that have a greater number of genetic orthologs in common with humans. Moreover, some other new model systems, such as the urochordate Botryllus schlosseri, the tunicate Ciona, and the sea urchins (Echinodermata) are members of the Deuterostomia, the same superphylum that includes all vertebrates, and thus have mechanisms that are likely to be more closely related to those occurring in humans. Additional characteristics of these new model systems, such as the recent development of new molecular and genetic tools and a more similar pattern to humans of regeneration and stem cell function suggest that these new model systems may have unique advantages for the study of mechanisms of aging and longevity. PMID:26241448

  20. ODP based UPT model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berre, A. J.; Handegard, T.; Loevnes, K.; Skjellaug, B.; Aagedal, J. O.

    1994-01-01

    The report documents the experiments with object oriented modelling of Universal Personal Telecommunication (UPT) in a telecommunication environment based on the basic principles of open distributed processing (ODP). Through the object-oriented analysis and design technique Object Modelling Technique (OMT) the service is modelled as a collection of software objects distributed across multiple network nodes. A software platform provides the mechanisms for application objects to interact. The platform builds on the basic facilities in the native computing and communication environments, but hides the heterogeneity of these environments and provides distribution transparency at the application programmer's interface. The report closes with some thoughts about applying the paradigm of ODP to intelligent networks (IN), and the experience with OMT as a modelling technique for real time distributed applications.

  1. Age-related Cardiac Disease Model of Drosophila

    PubMed Central

    Ocorr, Karen; Akasaka, Takeshi; Bodmer, Rolf

    2007-01-01

    We have begun to study the genetic basis of deterioration of cardiac function in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster as an age-related cardiac disease model. For this purpose we have developed heart function assays in Drosophila and found that the fly's cardiac performance, as that of the human heart, deteriorates with age: aging fruit flies exhibit a progressive increase in electrical pacing-induced heart failure as well as in arrhythmias. The insulin receptor and associated pathways have a dramatic and heart-autonomous influence on age-related cardiac performance in flies, suggestive of potentially similar mechanisms in regulating cardiac aging in vertebrates. Compromised KCNQ and KATP ion channel functions also seem to contribute to the decline in heart performance in aging flies, suggesting that the corresponding vertebrate gene functions may similarly decline with age, in addition to their conserved role in protecting against arrhythmias and hypoxia/ischemia, respectively. The fly heart is thus emerging as a promising genetic model for studying the age-dependent decline in organ function. PMID:17125816

  2. Age-space-time CAR models in Bayesian disease mapping.

    PubMed

    Goicoa, T; Ugarte, M D; Etxeberria, J; Militino, A F

    2016-06-30

    Mortality counts are usually aggregated over age groups assuming similar effects of both time and region, yet the spatio-temporal evolution of cancer mortality rates may depend on changing age structures. In this paper, mortality rates are analyzed by region, time period and age group, and models including space-time, space-age, and age-time interactions are considered. The integrated nested Laplace approximation method, known as INLA, is adopted for model fitting and inference in order to reduce computing time in comparison with Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods. The methodology provides full posterior distributions of the quantities of interest while avoiding complex simulation techniques. The proposed models are used to analyze prostate cancer mortality data in 50 Spanish provinces over the period 1986-2010. The results reveal a decline in mortality since the late 1990s, particularly in the age group [65,70), probably because of the inclusion of the PSA (prostate-specific antigen) test and better treatment of early-stage disease. The decline is not clearly observed in the oldest age groups. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26814019

  3. Approaches to chronological age assessment based on dental calcification.

    PubMed

    Bolanos, M V; Manrique, M C; Bolanos, M J; Briones, M T

    2000-05-15

    The aim of the present study was to find an accurate estimation of chronological age using a small number of selected teeth. For this purpose, the method devised by Nolla [C. Nolla, The development of the permanent teeth, J. Dent. Child. 27 (1960) 254-266.] was used: the development of each of the teeth was determined according to this method on 374 radiographs, 195 of boys (mean age 8.59) and 179 of girls (mean age 8.75). The 28 variables representing the calcification stages were analyzed using cluster analysis followed by multivariate analysis (multiple linear regression model). Patient age was considered to be a dependent variable. Our study showed that antimere teeth are the most homogeneous as regards stages of development. The prediction was more accurate for boys and girls below 10 years of age, using teeth 21, 43 and 46 from boys and teeth 21, 46 and 47 from girls. These teeth accounted for 80% total variance of chronological age for dental calcification. Standard error was +/-1.4 years for boys and +/-1.2 years for girls. When the age of the children remained completely unknown, the best estimates were provided by teeth 43, 47, 46 and 44 from boys and teeth 44, 47 and 43 from girls. PMID:10808098

  4. Content-based image retrieval applied to bone age assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Benedikt; Brosig, André; Welter, Petra; Grouls, Christoph; Günther, Rolf W.; Deserno, Thomas M.

    2010-03-01

    Radiological bone age assessment is based on local image regions of interest (ROI), such as the epiphysis or the area of carpal bones. These are compared to a standardized reference and scores determining the skeletal maturity are calculated. For computer-aided diagnosis, automatic ROI extraction and analysis is done so far mainly by heuristic approaches. Due to high variations in the imaged biological material and differences in age, gender and ethnic origin, automatic analysis is difficult and frequently requires manual interactions. On the contrary, epiphyseal regions (eROIs) can be compared to previous cases with known age by content-based image retrieval (CBIR). This requires a sufficient number of cases with reliable positioning of the eROI centers. In this first approach to bone age assessment by CBIR, we conduct leaving-oneout experiments on 1,102 left hand radiographs and 15,428 metacarpal and phalangeal eROIs from the USC hand atlas. The similarity of the eROIs is assessed by cross-correlation of 16x16 scaled eROIs. The effects of the number of eROIs, two age computation methods as well as the number of considered CBIR references are analyzed. The best results yield an error rate of 1.16 years and a standard deviation of 0.85 years. As the appearance of the hand varies naturally by up to two years, these results clearly demonstrate the applicability of the CBIR approach for bone age estimation.

  5. Human Age Estimation Based on Locality and Ordinal Information.

    PubMed

    Li, Changsheng; Liu, Qingshan; Dong, Weishan; Zhu, Xiaobin; Liu, Jing; Lu, Hanqing

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel feature selection-based method for facial age estimation. The face aging is a typical temporal process, and facial images should have certain ordinal patterns in the aging feature space. From the geometrical perspective, a facial image can be usually seen as sampled from a low-dimensional manifold embedded in the original high-dimensional feature space. Thus, we first measure the energy of each feature in preserving the underlying local structure information and the ordinal information of the facial images, respectively, and then we intend to learn a low-dimensional aging representation that can maximally preserve both kinds of information. To further improve the performance, we try to eliminate the redundant local information and ordinal information as much as possible by minimizing nonlinear correlation and rank correlation among features. Finally, we formulate all these issues into a unified optimization problem, which is similar to linear discriminant analysis in format. Since it is expensive to collect the labeled facial aging images in practice, we extend the proposed supervised method to a semi-supervised learning mode including the semi-supervised feature selection method and the semi-supervised age prediction algorithm. Extensive experiments are conducted on the FACES dataset, the Images of Groups dataset, and the FG-NET aging dataset to show the power of the proposed algorithms, compared to the state-of-the-arts. PMID:26470062

  6. Age equity in different models of primary care practice in Ontario

    PubMed Central

    Dahrouge, Simone; Hogg, William; Tuna, Meltem; Russell, Grant; Devlin, Rose Ann; Tugwell, Peter; Kristjansson, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess whether the model of service delivery affects the equity of the care provided across age groups. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Ontario. Participants One hundred thirty-seven practices, including traditional fee-for-service practices, salaried community health centres (CHCs), and capitation-based family health networks and health service organizations. Main outcome measures To compare the quality of care across age groups using multilevel linear or logistic regressions. Health service delivery measures and health promotion were assessed through patient surveys (N = 5111), which were based on the Primary Care Assessment Tool, and prevention and chronic disease management were assessed, based on Canadian recommendations for care, through chart abstraction (N = 4 108). Results Older individuals reported better health service delivery in all models. This age effect ranged from 1.9% to 5.7%, and was larger in the 2 capitation-based models. Individuals aged younger than 30 years attending CHCs had more features of disadvantage (ie, living below the poverty line and without high school education) and were more likely than older individuals to report discussing at least 1 health promotion subject at the index visit. These differences were deemed an appropriate response to greater needs in these younger individuals. The prevention score showed an age-sex interaction in all models, with adherence to recommended care dropping with age for women. These results are largely attributable to the fact that maneuvers recommended for younger women are considerably more likely to be performed than other maneuvers. Chronic disease management scores showed an inverted U relationship with age in fee-for-service practices, family health networks, and health service organizations but not in CHCs. Conclusion The salaried model might have an organizational structure that is more conducive to providing appropriate care across age groups. The thrust toward

  7. Mathematically modelling the dynamics of cholesterol metabolism and ageing.

    PubMed

    Morgan, A E; Mooney, K M; Wilkinson, S J; Pickles, N A; Mc Auley, M T

    2016-07-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the UK. This condition becomes increasingly prevalent during ageing; 34.1% and 29.8% of males and females respectively, over 75 years of age have an underlying cardiovascular problem. The dysregulation of cholesterol metabolism is inextricably correlated with cardiovascular health and for this reason low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are routinely used as biomarkers of CVD risk. The aim of this work was to use mathematical modelling to explore how cholesterol metabolism is affected by the ageing process. To do this we updated a previously published whole-body mathematical model of cholesterol metabolism to include an additional 96 mechanisms that are fundamental to this biological system. Additional mechanisms were added to cholesterol absorption, cholesterol synthesis, reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), bile acid synthesis, and their enterohepatic circulation. The sensitivity of the model was explored by the use of both local and global parameter scans. In addition, acute cholesterol feeding was used to explore the effectiveness of the regulatory mechanisms which are responsible for maintaining whole-body cholesterol balance. It was found that our model behaves as a hypo-responder to cholesterol feeding, while both the hepatic and intestinal pools of cholesterol increased significantly. The model was also used to explore the effects of ageing in tandem with three different cholesterol ester transfer protein (CETP) genotypes. Ageing in the presence of an atheroprotective CETP genotype, conferring low CETP activity, resulted in a 0.6% increase in LDL-C. In comparison, ageing with a genotype reflective of high CETP activity, resulted in a 1.6% increase in LDL-C. Thus, the model has illustrated the importance of CETP genotypes such as I405V, and their potential role in healthy ageing. PMID:27157786

  8. Age-Related Differences in the Accuracy of Web Query-Based Predictions of Influenza-Like Illness

    PubMed Central

    Domnich, Alexander; Panatto, Donatella; Signori, Alessio; Lai, Piero Luigi; Gasparini, Roberto; Amicizia, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    Background Web queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI). However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspective of age. Methods Since Google Flu Trends is unavailable in Italy, Google Trends was used to identify entry terms that correlated highly with official ILI surveillance data. All-age and age-class-specific modeling was performed by means of linear models with generalized least-square estimation. Hold-out validation was used to quantify prediction accuracy. For purposes of comparison, predictions generated by exponential smoothing were computed. Results Five search terms showed high correlation coefficients of > .6. In comparison with exponential smoothing, the all-age query-based model correctly predicted the peak time and yielded a higher correlation coefficient with observed ILI morbidity (.978 vs. .929). However, query-based prediction of ILI morbidity was associated with a greater error. Age-class-specific query-based models varied significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. In the 0–4 and 25–44-year age-groups, these did well and outperformed exponential smoothing predictions; in the 15–24 and ≥ 65-year age-classes, however, the query-based models were inaccurate and highly overestimated peak height. In all but one age-class, peak timing predicted by the query-based models coincided with observed timing. Conclusions The accuracy of web query-based models in predicting ILI morbidity rates could differ among ages. Greater age-specific detail may be useful in flu query-based studies in order to account for age-specific features of the epidemiology of ILI. PMID:26011418

  9. Predicting healthy older adult's brain age based on structural connectivity networks using artificial neural networks.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lan; Jin, Cong; Fu, Zhenrong; Zhang, Baiwen; Bin, Guangyu; Wu, Shuicai

    2016-03-01

    Brain ageing is followed by changes of the connectivity of white matter (WM) and changes of the grey matter (GM) concentration. Neurodegenerative disease is more vulnerable to an accelerated brain ageing, which is associated with prospective cognitive decline and disease severity. Accurate detection of accelerated ageing based on brain network analysis has a great potential for early interventions designed to hinder atypical brain changes. To capture the brain ageing, we proposed a novel computational approach for modeling the 112 normal older subjects (aged 50-79 years) brain age by connectivity analyses of networks of the brain. Our proposed method applied principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the redundancy in network topological parameters. Back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) improved by hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is established to model the relation among principal components (PCs) and brain age. The predicted brain age is strongly correlated with chronological age (r=0.8). The model has mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.29 years. Therefore, we believe the method can provide a possible way to quantitatively describe the typical and atypical network organization of human brain and serve as a biomarker for presymptomatic detection of neurodegenerative diseases in the future. PMID:26718834

  10. Model-Based Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frisch, Harold P.

    2007-01-01

    Engineers, who design systems using text specification documents, focus their work upon the completed system to meet Performance, time and budget goals. Consistency and integrity is difficult to maintain within text documents for a single complex system and more difficult to maintain as several systems are combined into higher-level systems, are maintained over decades, and evolve technically and in performance through updates. This system design approach frequently results in major changes during the system integration and test phase, and in time and budget overruns. Engineers who build system specification documents within a model-based systems environment go a step further and aggregate all of the data. They interrelate all of the data to insure consistency and integrity. After the model is constructed, the various system specification documents are prepared, all from the same database. The consistency and integrity of the model is assured, therefore the consistency and integrity of the various specification documents is insured. This article attempts to define model-based systems relative to such an environment. The intent is to expose the complexity of the enabling problem by outlining what is needed, why it is needed and how needs are being addressed by international standards writing teams.

  11. Justification of sexual reproduction by modified Penna model of ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá Martins, J. S.; Stauffer, D.

    2001-05-01

    We generalize the standard Penna bit-string model of biological ageing by assuming that each deleterious mutation diminishes the survival probability in every time interval by a small percentage. This effect is added to the usual lethal but age-dependent effect of the same mutation. We then find strong advantages or disadvantages of sexual reproduction (with males and females) compared to asexual cloning, depending on parameters.

  12. Using physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling to address nonlinear kinetics and changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation in deriving reference values for propylene glycol methyl ether and propylene glycol methyl ether acetate.

    PubMed

    Kirman, C R; Sweeney, L M; Corley, R; Gargas, M L

    2005-04-01

    Reference values, including an oral reference dose (RfD) and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC), were derived for propylene glycol methyl ether (PGME), and an oral RfD was derived for its acetate (PGMEA). These values were based on transient sedation observed in F344 rats and B6C3F1 mice during a two-year inhalation study. The dose-response relationship for sedation was characterized using internal dose measures as predicted by a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PGME and its acetate. PBPK modeling was used to account for changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation, based on data collected during Weeks 1, 2, 26, 52, and 78 of a chronic inhalation study. The peak concentration of PGME in richly perfused tissues (i.e., brain) was selected as the most appropriate internal dose measure based on a consideration of the mode of action for sedation and similarities in tissue partitioning between brain and other richly perfused tissues. Internal doses (peak tissue concentrations of PGME) were designated as either no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (LOAELs) based on the presence or the absence of sedation at each time point, species, and sex in the two-year study. Distributions of the NOAEL and LOAEL values expressed in terms of internal dose were characterized using an arithmetic mean and standard deviation, with the mean internal NOAEL serving as the basis for the reference values, which was then divided by appropriate uncertainty factors. Where data were permitting, chemical-specific adjustment factors were derived to replace default uncertainty factor values of 10. Nonlinear kinetics, which was predicted by the model in all species at PGME concentrations exceeding 100 ppm, complicate interspecies, and low-dose extrapolations. To address this complication, reference values were derived using two approaches that differ with respect to the order in which these

  13. Modeling dynamic strain aging of aluminum-magnesium alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Dawei

    This thesis presents atomistic studies and continuum modeling of solute clustering and solute diffusion in Al-Mg alloys, which are considered elements of the mechanism of dynamic strain aging (DSA). Solute clustering in Al-Mg binary alloys is first studied by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. In the undistorted lattice, Mg has a tendency to form a coherent phase. The binding energy of this structure is rather low and it dissolves at room temperature when only dynamic associations of doublets or triples of solute atoms are observed. In presence of dislocations and at room temperature, Mg clusters at cores forming the coherent phase observed in the undistorted lattice at lower temperatures. The size, shape and structure of the cluster cannot be predicted by elementary calculations based on the pressure field generated by the unclustered dislocation. Then diffusion for Mg in Al-Mg alloys is investigated by Molecular Statics and the Nudged Elastic Band method. The activation energy for diffusion of Mg in the bulk is evaluated in the dilute solution limit for the nearest neighbor and the ring mechanisms. It is concluded that bulk diffusion at low and moderate temperatures must be assisted by vacancies. Further, diffusion of Mg along the core of edge, 60° and screw dislocations is studied. The vacancy formation energy in the core and the migration energy for vacancy-assisted Mg is evaluated for a large number of diffusion paths in the core region. The analysis shows that pipe diffusion; which is currently considered as the leading mechanism responsible for dynamic strain aging in these alloys, is too slow in absence of excess vacancies. Finally, the time-dependent Mg solute clustering process is studied using a continuum model calibrated based on atomistic information. The solute atmosphere around an edge dislocation is evaluated in terms of a chemical potential gradient, which is obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations. The solute clustering process is modeled by coupled

  14. Dynamical Masses of Young Stars. I. Discordant Model Ages of Upper Scorpius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Ireland, Michael J.; Dupuy, Trent J.; Kraus, Adam L.

    2016-02-01

    We present the results of a long-term orbit monitoring program, using sparse aperture masking observations taken with NIRC2 on the Keck-II telescope, of seven G- to M-type members of the Upper Scorpius subgroup of the Sco-Cen OB association. We present astrometry and derived orbital elements of the binary systems we have monitored, and also determine the age, component masses, distance, and reddening for each system using the orbital solutions and multi-band photometry, including Hubble Space Telescope photometry, and a Bayesian fitting procedure. We find that the models can be forced into agreement with any individual system by assuming an age, but that age is not consistent across the mass range of our sample. The G-type binary systems in our sample have model ages of ˜11.5 Myr, which is consistent with the latest age estimates for Upper Scorpius, while the M-type binary systems have significantly younger model ages of ˜7 Myr. Based on our fits, this age discrepancy in the models corresponds to a luminosity underprediction of 0.8-0.15 dex, or equivalently an effective temperature overprediction of 100-300 K for M-type stars at a given pre-main-sequence age. We also find that the M-type binary system RXJ 1550.0-2312 has an age (˜16 Myr) and distance (˜85 pc) consistent with membership in the Upper Centaurus Lupus subgroup.

  15. Mathematical Model of Three Age-Structured Transmission Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus

    PubMed Central

    Agusto, Folashade B.; Easley, Shamise; Freeman, Kenneth; Thomas, Madison

    2016-01-01

    We developed a new age-structured deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus. The model is analyzed to gain insights into the qualitative features of its associated equilibria. Some of the theoretical and epidemiological findings indicate that the stable disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes, in the presence of disease induced mortality, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Further analysis of the model indicates that the qualitative dynamics of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. This is further emphasized by the sensitivity analysis results, which shows that the dominant parameters of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. However, the numerical simulations show the flaw of the exclusion of age in the transmission dynamics of chikungunya with regard to control implementations. The exclusion of age structure fails to show the age distribution needed for an effective age based control strategy, leading to a one size fits all blanket control for the entire population. PMID:27190548

  16. The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

    2014-07-01

    A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in

  17. Age-based discrimination of rival males in western bluebirds.

    PubMed

    Akçay, Çağlar; Arnold, J Andrew; Hambury, Katherine L; Dickinson, Janis L

    2016-09-01

    Adaptive social behavior frequently involves discriminating between classes of individuals such as relatives versus non-relatives, older versus younger individuals, or individuals of different status. In the absence of spatial cues, this discrimination may be based on signals that correlate with fitness-related traits (e.g., older or high-status males may sing higher performance songs) or with identity, for example, when receivers distinguish and classify signalers based on their unique signal structure. Here, we examine vocal age-based discrimination in western bluebirds (Sialia mexicana), a North American songbird in which older males have a significant advantage in obtaining extra-pair fertilizations, and therefore pose a significantly higher threat to paternity than younger males. We asked whether western bluebird males showed a higher response to playback of songs of older males compared to younger males relative to their own age. We prepared song stimuli by removing three potential signals of age that have been identified as important in other species: (1) note consistency (which was achieved by playing a single instance of each note repeatedly), (2) note repertoire size, and (3) singing rate (the latter two were equalized across conditions). Even in the absence of these potential signals of age, young males responded more strongly to playback of older males' songs than to young males' songs, suggesting that they are able to discriminate between age classes relative to the threat they pose. Further research is required to determine whether this discrimination is based on individual recognition or signal features that are correlated with age. PMID:27271774

  18. Evaluation of a Community-Based Aging Intervention Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Hui-Chuan; Wang, Chun-Hou; Chen, Yi-Chun; Chang, Ming-Chen; Wang, Jean

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the outcome and process of a community-based aging intervention program for the elderly in Taiwan. The program included education on nutrition and dietary behavior and on physical activities. Outcome and process evaluations were conducted. The program may have had some effects on decreasing some dietary behavioral problems and…

  19. Why is the dog an ideal model for aging research?

    PubMed

    Gilmore, Keiva M; Greer, Kimberly A

    2015-11-01

    With many caveats to the traditional vertebrate species pertaining to biogerontology investigations, it has been suggested that a most informative model is the one which: 1) examines closely related species, or various members of the same species with naturally occurring lifespan variation, 2) already has adequate medical procedures developed, 3) has a well annotated genome, 4) does not require artificial housing, and can live in its natural environment while being investigated, and 5) allows considerable information to be gathered within a relatively short period of time. The domestic dog unsurprisingly fits each criterion mentioned. The dog has already become a key model system in which to evaluate surgical techniques and novel medications because of the remarkable similarity between human and canine conditions, treatments, and response to therapy. The dog naturally serves as a disease model for study, obviating the need to construct artificial genetically modified examples of disease. Just as the dog offers a natural model for human conditions and diseases, simple observation leads to the conclusion that the canine aging phenotype also mimics that of the human. Genotype information, biochemical information pertaining to the GH/IGF-1 pathway, and some limited longitudinal investigations have begun the establishment of the domestic dog as a model of aging. Although we find that dogs indeed are a model to study aging and there are many independent pieces of canine aging data, there are many more "open" areas, ripe for investigation. PMID:26325590

  20. Model Based Definition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowe, Sidney E.

    2010-01-01

    In September 2007, the Engineering Directorate at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) created the Design System Focus Team (DSFT). MSFC was responsible for the in-house design and development of the Ares 1 Upper Stage and the Engineering Directorate was preparing to deploy a new electronic Configuration Management and Data Management System with the Design Data Management System (DDMS) based upon a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) Product Data Management (PDM) System. The DSFT was to establish standardized CAD practices and a new data life cycle for design data. Of special interest here, the design teams were to implement Model Based Definition (MBD) in support of the Upper Stage manufacturing contract. It is noted that this MBD does use partially dimensioned drawings for auxiliary information to the model. The design data lifecycle implemented several new release states to be used prior to formal release that allowed the models to move through a flow of progressive maturity. The DSFT identified some 17 Lessons Learned as outcomes of the standards development, pathfinder deployments and initial application to the Upper Stage design completion. Some of the high value examples are reviewed.

  1. Incompatible Ages for Clearwing Butterflies Based on Alternative Secondary Calibrations.

    PubMed

    Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Silva-Brandão, Karina L; Willmott, Keith R; Freitas, André V L; Brower, Andrew V Z

    2015-09-01

    The recent publication of a time-tree for the plant family Solanaceae (nightshades) provides the opportunity to use independent calibrations to test divergence times previously inferred for the diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini. Ithomiini includes clades that are obligate herbivores of Solanaceae, with some genera feeding on only one genus. We used 8 calibrations extracted from the plant tree in a new relaxed molecular-clock analysis to produce an alternative temporal framework for the diversification of ithomiines. We compared the resulting age estimates to: (i) a time-tree obtained using 7 secondary calibrations from the Nymphalidae tree of Wahlberg et al. (2009), and (ii) Wahlberg et al.'s (2009) original age estimates for the same clades. We found that Bayesian clock estimates were rather sensitive to a variety of analytical parameters, including taxon sampling. Regardless of this sensitivity however, ithomiine divergence times calibrated with the ages of nightshades were always on average half the age of previous estimates. Younger dates for ithomiine clades appear to fit better with factors long suggested to have promoted diversification of the group such as the uplifting of the Andes, in the case of montane genera. Alternatively, if ithomiines are as old as previous estimates suggest, the recent ages inferred for the diversification of Solanaceae seem likely to be seriously underestimated. Our study exemplifies the difficulty of testing hypotheses of divergence times and of choosing between alternative dating scenarios, and shows that age estimates based on seemingly plausible calibrations may be grossly incongruent. PMID:26012872

  2. Impact of aging mechanism on model simulated carbonaceous aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Y.; Wu, S.; Dubey, M. K.; French, N. H. F.

    2013-07-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols including organic carbon and black carbon have significant implications for both climate and air quality. In the current global climate or chemical transport models, a fixed hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic conversion lifetime for carbonaceous aerosol (τ) is generally assumed, which is usually around one day. We have implemented a new detailed aging scheme for carbonaceous aerosols in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to account for both the chemical oxidation and the physical condensation-coagulation effects, where τ is affected by local atmospheric environment including atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, ozone, hydroxyl radical and sulfuric acid. The updated τ exhibits large spatial and temporal variations with the global average (up to 11 km altitude) calculated to be 2.6 days. The chemical aging effects are found to be strongest over the tropical regions driven by the low ozone concentrations and high humidity there. The τ resulted from chemical aging generally decreases with altitude due to increases in ozone concentration and decreases in humidity. The condensation-coagulation effects are found to be most important for the high-latitude areas, in particular the polar regions, where the τ values are calculated to be up to 15 days. When both the chemical aging and condensation-coagulation effects are considered, the total atmospheric burdens and global average lifetimes of BC, black carbon, (OC, organic carbon) are calculated to increase by 9% (3%) compared to the control simulation, with considerable enhancements of BC and OC concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere. Model evaluations against data from multiple datasets show that the updated aging scheme improves model simulations of carbonaceous aerosols for some regions, especially for the remote areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The improvement helps explain the persistent low model bias for carbonaceous aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere reported in literature. Further

  3. Multilevel Risk Models for Retrospective Age-of-Onset Data: School Children's First Cigarette.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pickles, Andrew; Pickering, Kevin; Taylor, Colin; Sutton, Stephen; Yang, Shuying

    2001-01-01

    Describes a random effects discrete time survival model that addresses problems of measurement error and sample design complexities. Demonstrates the effectiveness of the model in an analysis of retrospective report data on the age of onset of smoking from two cross-sectional school-based studies. (JPB)

  4. A Third Note on Ageing in a Library Circulation Model: Applications to Future Use and Relegation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burrell, Quentin L.

    1987-01-01

    Describes a circulation model for academic research libraries which uses the mixed Poisson model, incorporating ageing of library materials, to predict future use of monographs and to suggest weeding procedures based on frequency of circulation. Longitudinal studies are examined and statistical details are appended. (Author/LRW)

  5. Cellular senescence in the Penna model of aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Periwal, Avikar

    2013-11-01

    Cellular senescence is thought to play a major role in age-related diseases, which cause nearly 67% of all human deaths worldwide. Recent research in mice showed that exercising mice had higher levels of telomerase, an enzyme that helps maintain telomere length, than nonexercising mice. A commonly used model for biological aging was proposed by Penna. I propose a modification of the Penna model that incorporates cellular senescence and find an analytical steady-state solution following Coe, Mao, and Cates [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.89.288103 89, 288103 (2002)]. I find that models corresponding to delayed cellular senescence have younger populations that live longer. I fit the model to the United Kingdom's death distribution, which the original Penna model cannot do.

  6. Thyroid and Aging or the Aging Thyroid? An Evidence-Based Analysis of the Literature

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Thyroid hormone production, metabolism, and action change with aging. The reference ranges for serum thyrotropin and thyroid hormones are derived mainly from younger populations. Thus, the prevalence of subclinical thyroid dysfunction is increased greatly in the elderly. However, it is unclear whether mild thyroid dysfunction in the elderly is associated with adverse outcomes. In this review, we discuss current evidence-based literature on thyroid function in the elderly and whether subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the elderly should be treated. PMID:24106641

  7. Blood Glucose, Diet-Based Glycemic Load and Cognitive Aging Among Dementia-Free Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Andel, Ross; McEvoy, Cathy; Dahl Aslan, Anna K.; Finkel, Deborah; Pedersen, Nancy L.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Although evidence indicates that Type II Diabetes is related to abnormal brain aging, the influence of elevated blood glucose on long-term cognitive change is unclear. In addition, the relationship between diet-based glycemic load and cognitive aging has not been extensively studied. The focus of this study was to investigate the influence of diet-based glycemic load and blood glucose on cognitive aging in older adults followed for up to 16 years. Methods. Eight-hundred and thirty-eight cognitively healthy adults aged ≥50 years (M = 63.1, SD = 8.3) from the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging were studied. Mixed effects growth models were utilized to assess overall performance and change in general cognitive functioning, perceptual speed, memory, verbal ability, and spatial ability as a function of baseline blood glucose and diet-based glycemic load. Results. High blood glucose was related to poorer overall performance on perceptual speed as well as greater rates of decline in general cognitive ability, perceptual speed, verbal ability, and spatial ability. Diet-based glycemic load was related to poorer overall performance in perceptual speed and spatial ability. Conclusion. Diet-based glycemic load and, in particular, elevated blood glucose appear important for cognitive performance/cognitive aging. Blood glucose control (perhaps through low glycemic load diets) may be an important target in the detection and prevention of age-related cognitive decline. PMID:25149688

  8. Evaluations of mosquito age grading techniques based on morphological changes.

    PubMed

    Hugo, L E; Quick-Miles, S; Kay, B H; Ryan, P A

    2008-05-01

    Evaluations were made of the accuracy and practicality of mosquito age grading methods based on changes to mosquito morphology; including the Detinova ovarian tracheation, midgut meconium, Polovodova ovariole dilatation, ovarian injection, and daily growth line methods. Laboratory maintained Aedes vigilax (Skuse) and Culex annulirostris (Skuse) females of known chronological and physiological ages were used for these assessments. Application of the Detinova technique to laboratory reared Ae. vigilax females in a blinded trial enabled the successful identification of nulliparous and parous females in 83.7-89.8% of specimens. The success rate for identifying nulliparous females increased to 87.8-98.0% when observations of ovarian tracheation were combined with observations of the presence of midgut meconium. However, application of the Polovodova method only enabled 57.5% of nulliparous, 1-parous, 2-parous, and 3-parous Ae. vigilax females to be correctly classified, and ovarian injections were found to be unfeasible. Poor correlation was observed between the number of growth lines per phragma and the calendar age of laboratory reared Ae. vigilax females. In summary, morphological age grading methods that offer simple two-category predictions (ovarian tracheation and midgut meconium methods) were found to provide high-accuracy classifications, whereas methods that offer the separation of multiple age categories (ovariolar dilatation and growth line methods) were found to be extremely difficult and of low accuracy. The usefulness of the morphology-based methods is discussed in view of the availability of new mosquito age grading techniques based on cuticular hydrocarbon and gene transcription changes. PMID:18533427

  9. Computationally Modeling Lipid Metabolism and Aging: A Mini-review.

    PubMed

    Mc Auley, Mark T; Mooney, Kathleen M

    2015-01-01

    One of the greatest challenges in biology is to improve the understanding of the mechanisms which underpin aging and how these affect health. The need to better understand aging is amplified by demographic changes, which have caused a gradual increase in the global population of older people. Aging western populations have resulted in a rise in the prevalence of age-related pathologies. Of these diseases, cardiovascular disease is the most common underlying condition in older people. The dysregulation of lipid metabolism due to aging impinges significantly on cardiovascular health. However, the multifaceted nature of lipid metabolism and the complexities of its interaction with aging make it challenging to understand by conventional means. To address this challenge computational modeling, a key component of the systems biology paradigm is being used to study the dynamics of lipid metabolism. This mini-review briefly outlines the key regulators of lipid metabolism, their dysregulation, and how computational modeling is being used to gain an increased insight into this system. PMID:25750699

  10. Computationally Modeling Lipid Metabolism and Aging: A Mini-review

    PubMed Central

    Mc Auley, Mark T.; Mooney, Kathleen M.

    2014-01-01

    One of the greatest challenges in biology is to improve the understanding of the mechanisms which underpin aging and how these affect health. The need to better understand aging is amplified by demographic changes, which have caused a gradual increase in the global population of older people. Aging western populations have resulted in a rise in the prevalence of age-related pathologies. Of these diseases, cardiovascular disease is the most common underlying condition in older people. The dysregulation of lipid metabolism due to aging impinges significantly on cardiovascular health. However, the multifaceted nature of lipid metabolism and the complexities of its interaction with aging make it challenging to understand by conventional means. To address this challenge computational modeling, a key component of the systems biology paradigm is being used to study the dynamics of lipid metabolism. This mini-review briefly outlines the key regulators of lipid metabolism, their dysregulation, and how computational modeling is being used to gain an increased insight into this system. PMID:25750699

  11. An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

    2009-01-01

    The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

  12. Age-Based Methods to Explore Time-Related Variables in Occupational Epidemiology Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Janice P. Watkins, Edward L. Frome, Donna L. Cragle

    2005-08-31

    Although age is recognized as the strongest predictor of mortality in chronic disease epidemiology, a calendar-based approach is often employed when evaluating time-related variables. An age-based analysis file, created by determining the value of each time-dependent variable for each age that a cohort member is followed, provides a clear definition of age at exposure and allows development of diverse analytic models. To demonstrate methods, the relationship between cancer mortality and external radiation was analyzed with Poisson regression for 14,095 Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. Based on previous analysis of this cohort, a model with ten-year lagged cumulative radiation doses partitioned by receipt before (dose-young) or after (dose-old) age 45 was examined. Dose-response estimates were similar to calendar-year-based results with elevated risk for dose-old, but not when film badge readings were weekly before 1957. Complementary results showed increasing risk with older hire ages and earlier birth cohorts, since workers hired after age 45 were born before 1915, and dose-young and dose-old were distributed differently by birth cohorts. Risks were generally higher for smokingrelated than non-smoking-related cancers. It was difficult to single out specific variables associated with elevated cancer mortality because of: (1) birth cohort differences in hire age and mortality experience completeness, and (2) time-period differences in working conditions, dose potential, and exposure assessment. This research demonstrated the utility and versatility of the age-based approach.

  13. Effect of age-based and environment-based cues on reproductive investment in Gambusia affinis

    PubMed Central

    Billman, Eric J; Belk, Mark C

    2014-01-01

    We examined the multivariate life-history trajectories of age 0 and age 1 female Gambusia affinis to determine relative effects of age-based and environment-based cues on reproductive investment. Age 0 females decreased reproductive investment prior to the onset of fall and winter months, while age 1 females increased reproductive investment as the summer progressed. The reproductive restraint and terminal investment patterns exhibited by age 0 and age 1 females, respectively, were consistent with the predictions from the cost of reproduction hypothesis. Age 0 females responded to environment-based cues, decreasing reproductive investment to increase the probability of overwinter survival and subsequent reproductive opportunities in the following summer. Age 1 females responded to age-based cues, or the proximity of death, increasing investment to current reproduction as future reproductive opportunities decreased late in life. Thus, individuals use multiple cues to determine the level of reproductive investment, and the response to each cue is dependent on the age of an individual. PMID:24967079

  14. Recent female mouse models displaying advanced reproductive aging.

    PubMed

    Danilovich, Natalia; Ram Sairam, M

    2006-02-01

    Reproductive senescence occurs in all female mammals with resultant changes in numerous body functional systems and several important features may be species-specific. Those features that appear to parallel human menopause and aging include general similarity of hormone profiles across the menopausal transition, progression to cycle termination through irregular cycles, declining fertility with age, disturbances in thermogenesis, age-related gains in body weight, fat distribution and disposition towards metabolic syndrome. Structural and hormonal changes in the brain and ovary play a critical role in determining the onset of reproductive senescence. The short life span of rodents such as mice (compared to humans) and the ability to generate specific and timed gene deletions, provide powerful experimental paradigms to understand the molecular and functional changes that precede and follow the loss of reproductive capacity. In theory, any manipulation that compromises ovarian function either partly or totally would impact reproductive events at various levels followed by other dysfunctions. In this article, we provide an overview of three mouse models for the study of female reproductive aging. They are derived from different strategies and their age related phenotypes have been characterized to varying degrees. The follitropin receptor knockout (FORKO) mouse, in its null and haploinsufficient state as well as the dioxin/aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) knockout mouse, serve as two examples of single gene deletions. A third model, using administration of a chemical toxicant such as 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD) in the adult state, produces ovarian deficiencies accompanied by aging changes. These will serve as useful alternatives to previously used radical ovariectomy in young adults. It is anticipated that these new models and more that will be forthcoming will extend opportunities to understand reproductive aging and resolve controversies that abound on issues

  15. Testing a model of aging in animal experiments.

    PubMed

    Tyurin YuN; Yakovlev AYu; Shi, J; Bass, L

    1995-03-01

    A stochastic model of aging is developed in terms of accumulation and expression of intracellular lesions caused by environment or intrinsic genetic program. In contrast to the commonly used Gompertz-Makeham approach to the parametric analysis of mortality data, the model yields a hazard function that is bounded from above. For testing the model in experiments aimed at studying animal longevity, a Kolmogorov-type statistical test is presented with regard to the hypothesis involving unknown parameters. Examples concerning longevity of intact animals of two different species, as well as the effect of a prolonged irradiation at a low dose rate, are given to illustrate the model application and goodness-of-fit testing. The results of the analysis of published data show that the rate of lesion formation is not sustained at a constant level throughout life, though in some cases its variations with age can be considered negligible. PMID:7766791

  16. Advertising, Consensus, and Aging in Multilayer Sznajd Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulze, Christian

    In the Sznajd consensus model on the square lattice, two people who agree in their opinions convince their neighbors of this opinion. We generalize it to many layers representing many age levels, and check if a consensus among all layers is possible. Advertising sometimes, but not always, produces a consensus on the advertised opinion.

  17. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Djordjevic, Ivan B.

    2015-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually

  18. Mathematical modeling of left ventricular dimensional changes in mice during aging.

    PubMed

    Yang, Tianyi; Chiao, Ying Ann; Wang, Yunji; Voorhees, Andrew; Han, Hai-Chao; Lindsey, Merry L; Jin, Yu-Fang

    2012-01-01

    Cardiac aging is characterized by diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle (LV), which is due in part to increased LV wall stiffness. In the diastolic phase, myocytes are relaxed and extracellular matrix (ECM) is a critical determinant to the changes of LV wall stiffness. To evaluate the effects of ECM composition on cardiac aging, we developed a mathematical model to predict LV dimension and wall stiffness changes in aging mice by integrating mechanical laws and our experimental results. We measured LV dimension, wall thickness, LV mass, and collagen content for wild type (WT) C57/BL6J mice of ages ranging from 7.3 months to those of 34.0 months. The model was established using the thick wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to an isotropic and homogeneous elastic composite with mixed constituents. The initial conditions of the simulation were set based on the data from the young mice. Matlab simulations of this mathematical model demonstrated that the model captured the major features of LV remodeling with age and closely approximated experimental results. Specifically, the temporal progression of the LV interior and exterior dimensions demonstrated the same trend and order-of-magnitude change as our experimental results. In conclusion, we present here a validated mathematical model of cardiac aging that applies the thick-wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to LV remodeling with age. PMID:23281647

  19. Mathematical modeling of left ventricular dimensional changes in mice during aging

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Cardiac aging is characterized by diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle (LV), which is due in part to increased LV wall stiffness. In the diastolic phase, myocytes are relaxed and extracellular matrix (ECM) is a critical determinant to the changes of LV wall stiffness. To evaluate the effects of ECM composition on cardiac aging, we developed a mathematical model to predict LV dimension and wall stiffness changes in aging mice by integrating mechanical laws and our experimental results. We measured LV dimension, wall thickness, LV mass, and collagen content for wild type (WT) C57/BL6J mice of ages ranging from 7.3 months to those of 34.0 months. The model was established using the thick wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to an isotropic and homogeneous elastic composite with mixed constituents. The initial conditions of the simulation were set based on the data from the young mice. Matlab simulations of this mathematical model demonstrated that the model captured the major features of LV remodeling with age and closely approximated experimental results. Specifically, the temporal progression of the LV interior and exterior dimensions demonstrated the same trend and order-of-magnitude change as our experimental results. In conclusion, we present here a validated mathematical model of cardiac aging that applies the thick-wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to LV remodeling with age. PMID:23281647

  20. Muscle wasting and aging: Experimental models, fatty infiltrations, and prevention.

    PubMed

    Brioche, Thomas; Pagano, Allan F; Py, Guillaume; Chopard, Angèle

    2016-08-01

    Identification of cost-effective interventions to maintain muscle mass, muscle strength, and physical performance during muscle wasting and aging is an important public health challenge. It requires understanding of the cellular and molecular mechanisms involved. Muscle-deconditioning processes have been deciphered by means of several experimental models, bringing together the opportunities to devise comprehensive analysis of muscle wasting. Studies have increasingly recognized the importance of fatty infiltrations or intermuscular adipose tissue for the age-mediated loss of skeletal-muscle function and emphasized that this new important factor is closely linked to inactivity. The present review aims to address three main points. We first mainly focus on available experimental models involving cell, animal, or human experiments on muscle wasting. We next point out the role of intermuscular adipose tissue in muscle wasting and aging and try to highlight new findings concerning aging and muscle-resident mesenchymal stem cells called fibro/adipogenic progenitors by linking some cellular players implicated in both FAP fate modulation and advancing age. In the last part, we review the main data on the efficiency and molecular and cellular mechanisms by which exercise, replacement hormone therapies, and β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate prevent muscle wasting and sarcopenia. Finally, we will discuss a potential therapeutic target of sarcopenia: glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase. PMID:27106402

  1. Mindspan: Lessons from Rat Models of Neurocognitive Aging

    PubMed Central

    Gallagher, Michela; Stocker, Amy; Koh, Ming Teng

    2011-01-01

    Research on the biology of aging seeks to enhance understanding of basic mechanisms and thus support improvements in outcomes throughout the lifespan, including longevity itself, susceptibility to disease, and life-long adaptive capacities. The focus of this review is the use of rats as an animal model of cognitive change during aging, and specifically lessons learned from aging rats in behavioral studies of cognitive processes mediated by specialized neural circuitry. An advantage of this approach is the ability to compare brain aging across species where functional homology exists for specific neural systems; in this article we focus on behavioral assessments that target the functions of the medial temporal lobe and prefrontal cortex. We also take a critical look at studies using calorie restriction (CR) as a well-defined experimental approach to manipulating biological aging. We conclude that the effects of CR on cognitive aging in rats are less well established than commonly assumed, with much less supportive evidence relative to its benefits on longevity and susceptibility to disease, and that more research in this area is necessary. PMID:21411856

  2. Mapping of Planetary Surface Age Based on Crater Statistics Obtained by AN Automatic Detection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salih, A. L.; Mühlbauer, M.; Grumpe, A.; Pasckert, J. H.; Wöhler, C.; Hiesinger, H.

    2016-06-01

    The analysis of the impact crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) is a well-established approach to the determination of the age of planetary surfaces. Classically, estimation of the CSFD is achieved by manual crater counting and size determination in spacecraft images, which, however, becomes very time-consuming for large surface areas and/or high image resolution. With increasing availability of high-resolution (nearly) global image mosaics of planetary surfaces, a variety of automated methods for the detection of craters based on image data and/or topographic data have been developed. In this contribution a template-based crater detection algorithm is used which analyses image data acquired under known illumination conditions. Its results are used to establish the CSFD for the examined area, which is then used to estimate the absolute model age of the surface. The detection threshold of the automatic crater detection algorithm is calibrated based on a region with available manually determined CSFD such that the age inferred from the manual crater counts corresponds to the age inferred from the automatic crater detection results. With this detection threshold, the automatic crater detection algorithm can be applied to a much larger surface region around the calibration area. The proposed age estimation method is demonstrated for a Kaguya Terrain Camera image mosaic of 7.4 m per pixel resolution of the floor region of the lunar crater Tsiolkovsky, which consists of dark and flat mare basalt and has an area of nearly 10,000 km2. The region used for calibration, for which manual crater counts are available, has an area of 100 km2. In order to obtain a spatially resolved age map, CSFDs and surface ages are computed for overlapping quadratic regions of about 4.4 x 4.4 km2 size offset by a step width of 74 m. Our constructed surface age map of the floor of Tsiolkovsky shows age values of typically 3.2-3.3 Ga, while for small regions lower (down to 2.9 Ga) and higher

  3. Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.

    2012-12-01

    This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;

  4. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J. P.; Tingley, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Reconstructions of late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurement on tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances may be achievable if time uncertain proxies could be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches to accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time uncertain proxies. Critically, while a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age-model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the climate reconstruction, as compared with the current de-facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  5. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J. P.; Tingley, M. P.

    2015-03-01

    Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  6. Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Johannes; Tingley, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Reconstructions of late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurement on tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances may be achievable if time uncertain proxies could be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches to accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time uncertain proxies. Critically, while a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the climate reconstruction, as compared with the current de-facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments. Werner and Tingley, Climate of the Past Discussions (2014)

  7. Rotifers as models for the biology of aging

    PubMed Central

    Snell, Terry W.

    2013-01-01

    It has been two decades since 1993 when research on the biology of rotifer aging was last reviewed by Enesco. Much has transpired during this time as rotifer biologists have adapted to the “omics” revolution and incorporated these techniques into the experimental analysis of rotifers. Rotifers are amenable to many of these approaches and getting adequate quantities of DNA, RNA, and protein from rotifers is not difficult. Analysis of rotifer genomes, transcriptomes, and proteomes is rapidly yielding candidate genes that likely regulate a variety of features of rotifer biology. Parallel developments in aging biology have recognized the limitations of standard animal models like worms and flies and that comparative aging research has essentially ignored a large fraction of animal phylogeny in the lophotrochozoans. As experimentally tractable members of this group, rotifers have attracted interest as models of aging. In this paper, I review advances over the past 20 years in the biology of aging in rotifers, with emphasis on the unique contributions of rotifer models for understanding aging. The majority of experimental work has manipulated rotifer diet and followed changes in survival and reproductive dynamics like mean lifespan, maximum lifespan, reproductive lifespan, and mortality rate doubling time. The main dietary manipulation has been some form of caloric restriction, withholding food for some period or feeding continuously at low levels. There have been comparative studies of several rotifer species, with some species responding to caloric restriction with life extension, but others not, at least under the tested food regimens. Other aspects of diet are less explored, like nutritional properties of different algae species and their capacity to extend rotifer lifespan. Several descriptive studies have reported many genes involved in rotifer aging by comparing gene expression in young and old individuals. Classes of genes up or down-regulated during aging

  8. Spatially adapted augmentation of age-specific atlas-based segmentation using patch-based priors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Mengyuan; Seshamani, Sharmishtaa; Harrylock, Lisa; Kitsch, Averi; Miller, Steven; Chau, Van; Poskitt, Kenneth; Rousseau, Francois; Studholme, Colin

    2014-03-01

    One of the most common approaches to MRI brain tissue segmentation is to employ an atlas prior to initialize an Expectation- Maximization (EM) image labeling scheme using a statistical model of MRI intensities. This prior is commonly derived from a set of manually segmented training data from the population of interest. However, in cases where subject anatomy varies significantly from the prior anatomical average model (for example in the case where extreme developmental abnormalities or brain injuries occur), the prior tissue map does not provide adequate information about the observed MRI intensities to ensure the EM algorithm converges to an anatomically accurate labeling of the MRI. In this paper, we present a novel approach for automatic segmentation of such cases. This approach augments the atlas-based EM segmentation by exploring methods to build a hybrid tissue segmentation scheme that seeks to learn where an atlas prior fails (due to inadequate representation of anatomical variation in the statistical atlas) and utilize an alternative prior derived from a patch driven search of the atlas data. We describe a framework for incorporating this patch-based augmentation of EM (PBAEM) into a 4D age-specific atlas-based segmentation of developing brain anatomy. The proposed approach was evaluated on a set of MRI brain scans of premature neonates with ages ranging from 27.29 to 46.43 gestational weeks (GWs). Results indicated superior performance compared to the conventional atlas-based segmentation method, providing improved segmentation accuracy for gray matter, white matter, ventricles and sulcal CSF regions.

  9. Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

    2016-06-01

    An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the consecutive "m out of n: F" is presented as well.

  10. Scaling in a Continuous Time Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.; Thomas, G. L.

    In this paper, we consider a generalization to the asexual version of Penna model for biological aging, where we take a continuous time limit. The genotype associated to each individual is an interval of real numbers over which Dirac δ-functions are defined, representing genetically programmed diseases to be switched on at defined ages of the individual life. We discuss two different continuous limits for the evolution equation and two different mutation protocols, to be implemented during reproduction. Exact stationary solutions are obtained and scaling properties are discussed.

  11. Computer simulation of Aphis gossypii insects using Penna aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarola, L. T. P.; Martins, S. G. F.; Toledo Costa, M. C. P.

    2006-08-01

    A computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of Aphis gossypii in laboratory and field conditions. The age structure was inserted in the dynamics through bit string model for biological aging, proposed by Penna in 1995. The influence of different host plants and of climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation was considered in the simulation starting from experimental data. The results obtained indicate that the simulation is an appropriate instrument for understanding of the population dynamics of these species and for the establishment of biological control strategies.

  12. Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model.

    PubMed

    Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuğrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

    2015-02-01

    We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ(-α). Depending on the exponent α, the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α=1) tree depth grows as (logn)(2). This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point. PMID:25768548

  13. Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuǧrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

    2015-02-01

    We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ-α. Depending on the exponent α , the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α =1 ) tree depth grows as (logn) 2. This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point.

  14. Aging, Neurogenesis, and Caloric Restriction in Different Model Organisms

    PubMed Central

    Arslan-Ergul, Ayca; Ozdemir, A Tugrul; Adams, Michelle M

    2013-01-01

    Brain aging is a multifactorial process that is occurring across multiple cognitive domains. A significant complaint that occurs in the elderly is a decrement in learning and memory ability. Both rodents and zebrafish exhibit a similar problem with memory during aging. The neurobiological changes that underlie this cognitive decline are complex and undoubtedly influenced by many factors. Alterations in the birth of new neurons and neuron turnover may contribute to age-related cognitive problems. Caloric restriction is the only non-genetic intervention that reliably increases life span and healthspan across multiple organisms although the molecular mechanisms are not well-understood. Recently the zebrafish has become a popular model organism for understanding the neurobiological consequences but to date very little work has been performed. Similarly, few studies have examined the effects of dietary restriction in zebrafish. Here we review the literature related to memory decline, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction across model organisms and suggest that zebrafish has the potential to be an important animal model for understanding the complex interactions between age, neurobiological changes in the brain, and dietary regimens or their mimetics as interventions. PMID:23936746

  15. Model Fitting Versus Curve Fitting: A Model of Renormalization Provides a Better Account of Age Aftereffects Than a Model of Local Repulsion

    PubMed Central

    Mac, Amy; Rhodes, Gillian; Webster, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, we proposed that the aftereffects of adapting to facial age are consistent with a renormalization of the perceived age (e.g., so that after adapting to a younger or older age, all ages appear slightly older or younger, respectively). This conclusion has been challenged by arguing that the aftereffects can also be accounted for by an alternative model based on repulsion (in which facial ages above or below the adapting age are biased away from the adaptor). However, we show here that this challenge was based on allowing the fitted functions to take on values which are implausible and incompatible across the different adapting conditions. When the fits are constrained or interpreted in terms of standard assumptions about normalization and repulsion, then the two analyses both agree in pointing to a pattern of renormalization in age aftereffects. PMID:27551353

  16. Adult age differences in learning and generalization of feedback-based associations.

    PubMed

    Simon, Jessica R; Gluck, Mark A

    2013-12-01

    Feedback-based associative learning (e.g., acquiring new associations from positive or negative outcomes) and generalization (e.g., applying past learning to new settings) are important cognitive skills that enable people to make economic decisions or social judgments. This ability to acquire new skills based on feedback and transfer those experiences to predict positive outcomes in novel situations is essential at all ages, but especially among older adults who must continually adapt to new people, environments, and technologies. Ample evidence from animal work, clinical research, and computational modeling has demonstrated that feedback-based associative learning is sensitive to basal ganglia dysfunction and generalization to medial temporal lobe dysfunction. This dissociation is relevant because of recent evidence that has suggested healthy aging compromises the basal ganglia system earlier than the medial temporal lobes. However, few studies have investigated how healthy aging influences these cognitive processes. Here, we examined both feedback-based associative learning and generalization in younger, middle-aged, and older adults using a computerized acquired equivalence task. Results revealed a significant effect of age group on feedback-based associative learning, consistent with evidence of persistent age-related declines in the basal ganglia. In contrast, generalization was spared in all but the oldest adult group, likely reflecting preserved medial temporal lobe function until advanced old age. Our findings add behavioral evidence to the emerging view that healthy aging affects the striatal system before the medial temporal lobes. Although further evidence is needed, this finding may shed light on the possible time course of neural system dysfunction in healthy aging. PMID:24364400

  17. Cosmogenic Ne-21 Production Rates in H-Chondrites Based on Cl-36 - Ar-36 Ages

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leya, I.; Graf, Th.; Nishiizumi, K.; Guenther, D.; Wieler, R.

    2000-01-01

    We measured Ne-21 production rates in 14 H-chondrites in good agreement with model calculations. The production rates are based on Ne-21 concentrations measured on bulk samples or the non-magnetic fraction and Cl-36 - Ar-36 ages determined from the metal phase.

  18. Effects of aging on strategic-based visuomotor learning.

    PubMed

    Alfonso Uresti-Cabrera, Luis; Vaca-Palomares, Israel; Diaz, Rosalinda; Beltran-Parrazal, Luis; Fernandez-Ruiz, Juan

    2015-08-27

    There are different kinds of visuomotor learnings. One of the most studied is error-based learning where the information about the sign and magnitude of the error is used to update the motor commands. However, there are other instances where subjects show visuomotor learning even if the use of error sign and magnitude information is precluded. In those instances subjects could be using strategic instead of procedural adaptation mechanisms. Here, we present the results of the effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning under a reversed error feedback condition, and its contrast with procedural visuomotor learning within the same participants. A number of measures were obtained from a task consisting of throwing clay balls to a target before, during and after wearing lateral displacing or reversing prisms. The displacing prism results show an age dependent decrease on the learning rate that corroborates previous findings. The reversing prism results also show significant adaptation impairment in the aged population. However, decreased reversing learning in the older group was the result of an increase in the number of subjects that could not adapt to the reversing prism, and not on a reduction of the learning capacity of all the individuals of the group. These results suggest a significant deleterious effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning implementation. PMID:26014620

  19. Impact of aging mechanism on model simulated carbonaceous aerosols

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Y.; Wu, S.; Dubey, M.K.; French, N. H. F.

    2013-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols including organic carbon and black carbon have significant implications for both climate and air quality. In the current global climate or chemical transport models, a fixed hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic conversion lifetime for carbonaceous aerosol (τ) is generally assumed, which is usually around one day. We have implemented a new detailed aging scheme for carbonaceous aerosols in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to account for both the chemical oxidation and the physical condensation-coagulation effects, where τ is affected by local atmospheric environment including atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, ozone, hydroxyl radical and sulfuric acid. The updated τ exhibits large spatial and temporal variations with the global average (up to 11 km altitude) calculated to be 2.6 days. The chemical aging effects are found to be strongest over the tropical regions driven by the low ozone concentrations and high humidity there. The τ resulted from chemical aging generally decreases with altitude due to increases in ozone concentration and decreases in humidity. The condensation-coagulation effects are found to be most important for the high-latitude areas, in particular the polar regions, where the τ values are calculated to be up to 15 days. When both the chemical aging and condensation-coagulation effects are considered, the total atmospheric burdens and global average lifetimes of BC, black carbon, (OC, organic carbon) are calculated to increase by 9% (3%) compared to the control simulation, with considerable enhancements of BC and OC concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere. Model evaluations against data from multiple datasets show that the updated aging scheme improves model simulations of carbonaceous aerosols for some regions, especially for the remote areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The improvement helps explain the persistent low model bias for carbonaceous aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere reported in literature. Further

  20. Cycle ageing analysis of a LiFePO4/graphite cell with dynamic model validations: Towards realistic lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarasketa-Zabala, E.; Gandiaga, I.; Martinez-Laserna, E.; Rodriguez-Martinez, L. M.; Villarreal, I.

    2015-02-01

    The present investigation work compares cycling ageing behaviour upon constant operation conditions (static tests) with degradation under non-constant schemes (dynamic tests), through a novel methodology for ageing model dynamic validation. A LFP-based Li-ion cell performance loss is analysed using a DOD and C-rate stress factors Ah-throughput-domain characterisation method, and represented using a semi-empirical model. The proposed stepwise validation approach enables assessing the static ageing tests acceleration factor and systematically improving the ageing model. The result is a simple but comprehensive model. The predictions root-mean-square error, under dynamic cycling operation conditions, is just 1.75%.

  1. Geophysical Age Dating of Seamounts using Dense Core Flexure Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Gyuha; Kim, Seung-Sep

    2016-04-01

    Lithospheric flexure of oceanic plate is thermo-mechanical response of an elastic plate to the given volcanic construct (e.g., seamounts and ocean islands). If the shape and mass of such volcanic loads are known, the flexural response is governed by the thickness of elastic plate, Te. As the age of oceanic plate increases, the elastic thickness of oceanic lithosphere becomes thicker. Thus, we can relate Te with the age of plate at the time of loading. To estimate the amount of the driving force due to seamounts on elastic plate, one needs to approximate their density structure. The most common choice is uniform density model, which utilizes constant density value for a seamount. This approach simplifies computational processes for gravity prediction and error estimates. However, the uniform density model tends to overestimate the total mass of the seamount and hence produces more positive gravitational contributions from the load. Minimization of gravity misfits using uniform density, therefore, favors thinner Te in order to increase negative contributions from the lithospheric flexure, which can compensate for the excessive positives from the seamount. An alternative approach is dense core model, which approximate the heterogeneity nature of seamount density as three bodies of infill sediment, edifice, and dense core. In this study, we apply the dense core model to the Louisville Seamount Chain for constraining flexural deformation. We compare Te estimates with the loading time of the examined seamounts to redefine empirical geophysical age dating of seamounts.

  2. Mechanical Regulation of Cardiac Aging in Model Systems.

    PubMed

    Sessions, Ayla O; Engler, Adam J

    2016-05-13

    Unlike diet and exercise, which individuals can modulate according to their lifestyle, aging is unavoidable. With normal or healthy aging, the heart undergoes extensive vascular, cellular, and interstitial molecular changes that result in stiffer less compliant hearts that experience a general decline in organ function. Although these molecular changes deemed cardiac remodeling were once thought to be concomitant with advanced cardiovascular disease, they can be found in patients without manifestation of clinical disease. It is now mostly acknowledged that these age-related mechanical changes confer vulnerability of the heart to cardiovascular stresses associated with disease, such as hypertension and atherosclerosis. However, recent studies have aimed at differentiating the initial compensatory changes that occur within the heart with age to maintain contractile function from the maladaptive responses associated with disease. This work has identified new targets to improve cardiac function during aging. Spanning invertebrate to vertebrate models, we use this review to delineate some hallmarks of physiological versus pathological remodeling that occur in the cardiomyocyte and its microenvironment, focusing especially on the mechanical changes that occur within the sarcomere, intercalated disc, costamere, and extracellular matrix. PMID:27174949

  3. Spectral age modelling of the `Sausage' cluster radio relic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroe, Andra; Harwood, Jeremy J.; Hardcastle, Martin J.; Röttgering, Huub J. A.

    2014-12-01

    CIZA J2242.8+5301 is a post-core passage, binary merging cluster that hosts a large, thin, arc-like radio relic, nicknamed the `Sausage', tracing a relatively strong shock front. We perform spatially resolved spectral fitting to the available radio data for this radio relic, using a variety of spectral ageing models, with the aim of finding a consistent set of parameters for the shock and radio plasma. We determine an injection index of 0.77^{+0.03}_{-0.02} for the relic plasma, significantly steeper than was found before. Standard particle acceleration at the shock front implies a Mach number M=2.90^{+0.10}_{-0.13}, which now matches X-ray measurements. The shock advance speed is vshock ≈ 2500 km s-1, which places the core passage of the two subclusters 0.6-0.8 Gyr ago. We find a systematic spectral age increase from 0 at the northern side of the relic up to ˜60 Myr at ˜145 kpc into the downstream area, assuming a 0.6 nT magnetic field. Under the assumption of freely ageing electrons after acceleration by the `Sausage' shock, the spectral ages are hard to reconcile with the shock speed derived from X-ray and radio observations. Re-acceleration or unusually efficient transport of particle in the downstream area and line-of-sight mixing could help explain the systematically low spectral ages.

  4. Predicting mortality from burns: the need for age-group specific models.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Sandra L; Lawless, MaryBeth; Curri, Terese; Sen, Soman; Greenhalgh, David G; Palmieri, Tina L

    2014-09-01

    Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000 to 2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. "One size fits all" models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable. PMID:24846014

  5. Healthy Aging Promotion through Neuroscientific Information-Based Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Seinfeld, Sofia; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V.

    2015-01-01

    To ensure the well-being of a rapidly growing elderly population, it is fundamental to find strategies to foster healthy brain aging. With this intention, we designed a program of scientific-based lectures aimed at dissemination by established neuroscientists about brain function, brain plasticity and how lifestyle influences the brain. We also carried out a pilot study on the impact of the lectures on attendees. The objective was to provide information to elderly people in order to encourage them to identify unhealthy and healthy daily habits, and more importantly, to promote behavioral changes towards healthy brain aging. Here we report on our experience. In order to determine the impact of the lectures in the daily routine of the attendees, we asked them to fill out questionnaires. Preliminary results indicate that neuroscientific information-based strategies can be a useful method to have a positive impact on the lives of elderly, increase their awareness on how to improve brain function and promote positive lifestyle modifications. Furthermore, based on self-reported data, we also found that through this strategy it is possible to promote behavioral changes related to nutrition, sleep, and realization of physical and cognitively stimulating activities. Finally, based on the results obtained, the importance of promoting self-efficacy and the empowerment of the older populations is highlighted. PMID:26426029

  6. Healthy Aging Promotion through Neuroscientific Information-Based Strategies.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, Sofia; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V

    2015-10-01

    To ensure the well-being of a rapidly growing elderly population, it is fundamental to find strategies to foster healthy brain aging. With this intention, we designed a program of scientific-based lectures aimed at dissemination by established neuroscientists about brain function, brain plasticity and how lifestyle influences the brain. We also carried out a pilot study on the impact of the lectures on attendees. The objective was to provide information to elderly people in order to encourage them to identify unhealthy and healthy daily habits, and more importantly, to promote behavioral changes towards healthy brain aging. Here we report on our experience. In order to determine the impact of the lectures in the daily routine of the attendees, we asked them to fill out questionnaires. Preliminary results indicate that neuroscientific information-based strategies can be a useful method to have a positive impact on the lives of elderly, increase their awareness on how to improve brain function and promote positive lifestyle modifications. Furthermore, based on self-reported data, we also found that through this strategy it is possible to promote behavioral changes related to nutrition, sleep, and realization of physical and cognitively stimulating activities. Finally, based on the results obtained, the importance of promoting self-efficacy and the empowerment of the older populations is highlighted. PMID:26426029

  7. Reliability-based lifetime maintenance of aging highway bridges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enright, Michael P.; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2000-06-01

    As the nation's infrastructure continues to age, the cost of maintaining it at an acceptable safety level continues to increase. In the United States, about one of every three bridges is rated structurally deficient and/or functionally obsolete. It will require about 80 billion to eliminate the current backlog of bridge deficiencies and maintain repair levels. Unfortunately, the financial resources allocated for these activities fall extremely short of the demand. Although several existing and emerging NDT techniques are available to gather inspection data, current maintenance planning decisions for deficient bridges are based on data from subjective condition assessments and do not consider the reliability of bridge components and systems. Recently, reliability-based optimum maintenance planning strategies have been developed. They can be used to predict inspection and repair times to achieve minimum life-cycle cost of deteriorating structural systems. In this study, a reliability-based methodology which takes into account loading randomness and history, and randomness in strength and degradation resulting from aggressive environmental factors, is used to predict the time- dependent reliability of aging highway bridges. A methodology for incorporating inspection data into reliability predictions is also presented. Finally, optimal lifetime maintenance strategies are identified, in which optimal inspection/repair times are found based on minimum expected life-cycle cost under prescribed reliability constraints. The influence of discount rate on optimum solutions is evaluated.

  8. Zebrafish (Danio rerio) as a model for the study of aging and exercise: physical ability and trainability decrease with age.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Matthew J H; Zerulla, Tanja C; Tierney, Keith B

    2014-02-01

    A rapidly aging global population has motivated the development and use of models for human aging. Studies on aging have shown parallels between zebrafish and humans at the internal organization level; however, few parallels have been studied at the whole-organism level. Furthermore, the effectiveness of exercise as a method to mitigate the effects of aging has not been studied in zebrafish. We investigated the effects of aging and intermittent exercise on swimming performance, kinematics and behavior. Young, middle-aged and old zebrafish (20-29, 36-48 and 60-71% of average lifespan, respectively) were exercised to exhaustion in endurance and sprint swimming tests once a week for four weeks. Both endurance and sprint performance decreased with increased age. Swimming performance improved with exercise training in young and middle-aged zebrafish, but not in old zebrafish. Tail-beat amplitude, which is akin to stride length in humans, increased for all age groups with training. Zebrafish turning frequency, which is an indicator of routine activity, decreased with age but showed no change with exercise. In sum, our results show that zebrafish exhibit a decline in whole-organism performance and trainability with age. These findings closely resemble the senescence-related declines in physical ability experienced by humans and mammalian aging models and therefore support the use of zebrafish as a model for human exercise and aging. PMID:24316042

  9. Modeling Aging and Mechanical Rejuvenation of Amorphous Solids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semkiv, Mykhailo; Hütter, Markus

    2016-04-01

    The elasto-viscoplasticity of amorphous solids is modeled, with a focus on the effects of physical aging and mechanical rejuvenation. Using nonequilibrium thermodynamics, the concept of kinetic and configurational subsystems has been employed. The Hamiltonian structure of reversible dynamics is exploited to derive a constitutive relation for the stress tensor. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that accounting for mechanical rejuvenation results in a modification of the driving force for viscoplastic flow.

  10. Estimating Black Carbon Aging Time-Scales with a Particle-Resolved Aerosol Model

    SciTech Connect

    Riemer, Nicole; West, Matt; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Easter, Richard C.

    2010-01-13

    Understanding the aging process of aerosol particles is important for assessing their chemical reactivity, cloud condensation nuclei activity, radiative properties and health impacts. In this study we investigate the aging of black carbon containing particles in an idealized urban plume using a new approach, the particleresolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. We present a method to estimate aging time-scales using an aging criterion based on cloud condensation nuclei activation. The results show a separation into a daytime regime where condensation dominates and a nighttime regime where coagulation dominates. For the chosen urban plume scenario, depending on the supersaturation threshold, the values for the aging timescales vary between 0.06 hours and 10 hours during the day, and between 6 hours and 20 hours during the night.

  11. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-01-01

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration. PMID:25375139

  12. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-11-06

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZEmore » particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.« less

  13. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    SciTech Connect

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-11-06

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.

  14. Down syndrome as a model of DNA polymerase beta haploinsufficiency and accelerated aging.

    PubMed

    Patterson, David; Cabelof, Diane C

    2012-04-01

    Down syndrome is a condition of intellectual disability characterized by accelerated aging. As with other aging syndromes, evidence accumulated over the past several decades points to a DNA repair defect inherent in Down syndrome. This evidence has led us to suggest that Down syndrome results in reduced DNA base excision repair (BER) capacity, and that this contributes to the genomic instability and the aging phenotype of Down syndrome. We propose important roles for microRNA and/or folate metabolism and oxidative stress in the dysregulation of BER in Down syndrome. Further, we suggest these pathways are involved in the leukemogenesis of Down syndrome. We have reviewed the role of BER in the processing of oxidative stress, and the impact of folate depletion on BER capacity. Further, we have reviewed the role that loss of BER, specifically DNA polymerase beta, plays in accelerating the rate of aging. Like that seen in the DNA polymerase beta heterozygous mouse, the aging phenotype of Down syndrome is subtle, unlike the aging phenotypes seen in the classical progeroid syndromes and mouse models of aging. As such, Down syndrome may provide a model for elucidating some of the basic mechanisms of aging. PMID:22019846

  15. Ageing of polymer bonds: a coupled chemomechanical modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippel, Benedikt; Johlitz, Michael; Lion, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    With the increasing number of requirements on joinings, it gets more and more important to understand and predict an assemblies properties. Nowadays, in industrial applications, combinations of different materials get more common. In most of those cases, it is, besides other advantages, useful to connect such parts with adhesives to avoid local cells. Thus, the knowledge about the mechanical behaviour of adhesives over the whole time of utilisation is an essential element of engineering. As it is well known, ageing due to environmental influences such as oxygen, radiation, ozone and others plays a major role in polymers properties. So, for the prediction of applicability over the whole lifetime of a technical component, the change in mechanical properties due to ageing is necessary. In this contribution, we introduce a material model which takes into account the internal structure of an adhesive. Therefore, an interphase zone is introduced. In the interphase, which is developed due to the contact of an adhesive with an adherent, the materials properties change continuously from the surface to the centre of the joint, where the polymer is in a bulky state. Built up on this geometry dependency, the materials ageing as a function of the position is described. To model the change of the polymers state, we use a parameter representing chain scission processes and another one for the reformation of a new network. In a last step, the model is transferred into a finite element code for exemplary calculations.

  16. Lithium-ion Open Circuit Voltage (OCV) curve modelling and its ageing adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavigne, L.; Sabatier, J.; Francisco, J. Mbala; Guillemard, F.; Noury, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper is a contribution to lithium-ion batteries modelling taking into account aging effects. It first analyses the impact of aging on electrode stoichiometry and then on lithium-ion cell Open Circuit Voltage (OCV) curve. Through some hypotheses and an appropriate definition of the cell state of charge, it shows that each electrode equilibrium potential, but also the whole cell equilibrium potential can be modelled by a polynomial that requires only one adjustment parameter during aging. An adjustment algorithm, based on the idea that for two fixed OCVs, the state of charge between these two equilibrium states is unique for a given aging level, is then proposed. Its efficiency is evaluated on a battery pack constituted of four cells.

  17. Age-based differences in hair zinc of Vancouver preschoolers.

    PubMed

    Vaghri, Ziba; Barr, Susan; Wong, Hubert; Chapman, Gwen; Hertzman, Clyde

    2008-12-01

    Marginal zinc deficiency (MZD), the subclinical stage of zinc deficiency, is common in industrialized societies. Serum zinc, the most common biomarker of zinc status, lacks sensitivity and specificity to diagnose this deficiency. Hair zinc, however, is sensitive and specific enough to detect MZD in children. Differences in hair zinc associated with age and sex have been reported. These differences have not been investigated thoroughly; therefore, interpretation of the results of hair analyses is difficult. This cross-sectional study was designed to examine the hair zinc status of a group of Vancouver preschoolers (24-71 months) and assess the age- and sex-based differences in their hair zinc. Hair samples were obtained (n = 719) and analyzed for zinc using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Our results indicated a mean hair zinc of 115 +/- 43 microg/g with 17% below the low hair zinc cutoff (70 microg/g). Boys and girls had comparable mean hair zinc, while girls had a significantly higher occurrence of low hair zinc than boys (21% vs. 12%). Children <4 years of age had significantly lower mean hair zinc and higher rate of low hair zinc compared to children > or =4. Our study provides important reference values for the hair zinc of healthy North American preschoolers. PMID:18806933

  18. Using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery to build age models for alluvial fan surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Lewis, James

    2016-04-01

    Accurate exposure age models are essential for much geomorphological field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide, or luminescence techniques. These approaches continue to revolutionise geomorphology, however they cannot be deployed remotely or in situ in the field. Therefore other methods are still needed for producing preliminary age models, performing relative dating of surfaces, or selecting sampling sites for the laboratory analyses above. With the widespread availability of detailed multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely-sensed data to discriminate surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. Alluvial fans are useful landforms to date, as they are widely used to study the effects of tectonics, climate and sediment transport processes on source-to-sink sedimentation. Our target fan surfaces have all been mapped in detail in the field, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka measured using a high density of 10Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. Despite all having similar granitic compositions, the spectral properties of these surfaces vary systematically with their exposure ages. Older surfaces demonstrate a predictable shift in reflectance across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratios of different wavelengths, generate sensitive power law relationships with exposure age that depend on post-depositional alteration processes affecting these surfaces. We investigate what these processes might be in this dryland location, and evaluate the potential for using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery for developing surface age models. The ability to remotely sense relative exposure ages has useful implications for preliminary mapping, selecting

  19. Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

    2014-02-01

    The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

  20. Intelligent Systems for Assessing Aging Changes: Home-Based, Unobtrusive, and Continuous Assessment of Aging

    PubMed Central

    Maxwell, Shoshana A.; Mattek, Nora; Hayes, Tamara L.; Dodge, Hiroko; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly B.; Wild, Katherine; Boise, Linda; Zitzelberger, Tracy A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. To describe a longitudinal community cohort study, Intelligent Systems for Assessing Aging Changes, that has deployed an unobtrusive home-based assessment platform in many seniors homes in the existing community. Methods. Several types of sensors have been installed in the homes of 265 elderly persons for an average of 33 months. Metrics assessed by the sensors include total daily activity, time out of home, and walking speed. Participants were given a computer as well as training, and computer usage was monitored. Participants are assessed annually with health and function questionnaires, physical examinations, and neuropsychological testing. Results. Mean age was 83.3 years, mean years of education was 15.5, and 73% of cohort were women. During a 4-week snapshot, participants left their home twice a day on average for a total of 208 min per day. Mean in-home walking speed was 61.0 cm/s. Participants spent 43% of days on the computer averaging 76 min per day. Discussion. These results demonstrate for the first time the feasibility of engaging seniors in a large-scale deployment of in-home activity assessment technology and the successful collection of these activity metrics. We plan to use this platform to determine if continuous unobtrusive monitoring may detect incident cognitive decline. PMID:21743050

  1. Age-correlated stress resistance improves fitness of yeast: support from agent-based simulations

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Resistance to stress is often heterogeneous among individuals within a population, which helps protect against intermittent stress (bet hedging). This is also the case for heat shock resistance in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Interestingly, the resistance appears to be continuously distributed (vs. binary, switch-like) and correlated with replicative age (vs. random). Older, slower-growing cells are more resistant than younger, faster-growing ones. Is there a fitness benefit to age-correlated stress resistance? Results Here this hypothesis is explored using a simple agent-based model, which simulates a population of individual cells that grow and replicate. Cells age by accumulating damage, which lowers their growth rate. They synthesize trehalose at a metabolic cost, which helps protect against heat shock. Proteins Tsl1 and Tps3 (trehalose synthase complex regulatory subunit TSL1 and TPS3) represent the trehalose synthesis complex and they are expressed using constant, age-dependent and stochastic terms. The model was constrained by calibration and comparison to data from the literature, including individual-based observations obtained using high-throughput microscopy and flow cytometry. A heterogeneity network was developed, which highlights the predominant sources and pathways of resistance heterogeneity. To determine the best trehalose synthesis strategy, model strains with different Tsl1/Tps3 expression parameters were placed in competition in an environment with intermittent heat shocks. Conclusions For high severities and low frequencies of heat shock, the winning strain used an age-dependent bet hedging strategy, which shows that there can be a benefit to age-correlated stress resistance. The study also illustrates the utility of combining individual-based observations and modeling to understand mechanisms underlying population heterogeneity, and the effect on fitness. PMID:24529069

  2. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  3. Accelerated thermal aging of petroleum-based ferrofluids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segal, V.; Nattrass, D.; Raj, K.; Leonard, D.

    1999-07-01

    The effect of elevated temperature on the physical and insulating properties of ferrofluid specifically developed for use as a liquid dielectric (D-fluid) for power transformers has been investigated. The D-fluid was produced as a colloidal mix of a specifically synthesized ferrofluid with a conventional mineral oil, and it was subjected to thermal aging conditions modeled after a typical power transformer where the insulation fluid is expected to retain its dielectric performance for about 40 years of continuous service in a sealed tank. The well-known Arrhenius relationship was employed to model "life in service" for up to 40 years at 105°C which corresponded to holding the samples in sealed jars for 10 weeks at 185°C. Another set of small ampules (5 ml) was prepared to test the main physical properties after even longer aging. D-fluid tested after a period of 34 and 50 weeks at 185°C showed no degradation of thermal or colloid stability. The dielectric colloid was also subjected to a 21 day-long test at 110°C in a sealed jar in the presence of typical transformer materials: copper, cellulose, and silicon steel (so-called "bomb" test). Finally, the ferrofluid went through an oxidation stability test (ASTM D2440). Test results show that the newly developed dielectric colloid satisfies the long-term service requirements the transformer users typically apply to conventional mineral oils.

  4. Bone age assessment by content-based image retrieval and case-based reasoning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Benedikt; Welter, Petra; Grouls, Christoph; Günther, Rolf W.; Deserno, Thomas M.

    2011-03-01

    Skeletal maturity is assessed visually by comparing hand radiographs to a standardized reference image atlas. Most common are the methods by Greulich & Pyle and Tanner & Whitehouse. For computer-aided diagnosis (CAD), local image regions of interest (ROI) such as the epiphysis or the carpal areas are extracted and evaluated. Heuristic approaches trying to automatically extract, measure and classify bones and distances between bones suffer from the high variability of biological material and the differences in bone development resulting from age, gender and ethnic origin. Content-based image retrieval (CBIR) provides a robust solution without delineating and measuring bones. In this work, epiphyseal ROIs (eROIS) of a hand radiograph are compared to previous cases with known age, mimicking a human observer. Leaving-one-out experiments are conducted on 1,102 left hand radiographs and 15,428 metacarpal and phalangeal eROIs from the publicly available USC hand atlas. The similarity of the eROIs is assessed by a combination of cross-correlation, image distortion model, and Tamura texture features, yielding a mean error rate of 0.97 years and a variance of below 0.63 years. Furthermore, we introduce a publicly available online-demonstration system, where queries on the USC dataset as well as on uploaded radiographs are performed for instant CAD. In future, we plan to evaluate physician with CBIR-CAD against physician without CBIR-CAD rather than physician vs. CBIR-CAD.

  5. Model-Based Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ifenthaler, Dirk; Seel, Norbert M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, there will be a particular focus on mental models and their application to inductive reasoning within the realm of instruction. A basic assumption of this study is the observation that the construction of mental models and related reasoning is a slowly developing capability of cognitive systems that emerges effectively with proper…

  6. Aging and Fluency Based Illusions in Recognition Memory

    PubMed Central

    Thapar, Anjali; Westerman, Deanne L.

    2009-01-01

    We examined age related differences in susceptibility to fluency-based memory illusions. The results from two experiments, using two different methods to enhance the fluency of recognition test items, revealed that older and younger adults did not differ significantly in terms of their overall susceptibility to this type of memory illusion. Older and younger adults were also similar in that perceptual fluency did not influence recognition memory responses when there was a mismatch in the sensory modality of the study and test phases. Likewise, a more conceptual fluency manipulation influenced recognition memory responses in both older and younger adults regardless of the match in modality. Overall, the results indicate that older adults may not be more vulnerable than younger adults to fluency-based illusions of recognition memory. Moreover, younger and older adults appear to be comparable in their sensitivity to factors that modulate the influence of fluency on recognition decisions. PMID:19739915

  7. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  8. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  9. Dynamic analysis of a hepatitis B model with three-age-classes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Suxia; Zhou, Yicang

    2014-07-01

    Based on the fact that the likelihood of becoming chronically infected is dependent on age at primary infection Kane (1995) [2], Edmunds et al. (1993) [3], Medley et al. (2001) [4], and Ganem and Prince (2004) [6], we formulate a hepatitis B transmission model with three age classes. The reproduction number, R0 is defined and the dynamical behavior of the model is analyzed. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R0<1, and there exists at least one endemic equilibrium and that the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1. The unique endemic equilibrium and its global stability is obtained in a special case. Simulations are also conducted to compare the dynamical behavior of the model with and without age classes.

  10. Age Determination by Back Length for African Savanna Elephants: Extending Age Assessment Techniques for Aerial-Based Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.; Ferreira, Sam M.; Nørgaard, Camilla F.; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C.; Moss, Cynthia J.

    2011-01-01

    Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables. PMID:22028925

  11. Modeling age-specific cancer incidences using logistic growth equations: implications for data collection.

    PubMed

    Shen, Xing-Rong; Feng, Rui; Chai, Jing; Cheng, Jing; Wang, De-Bin

    2014-01-01

    Large scale secular registry or surveillance systems have been accumulating vast data that allow mathematical modeling of cancer incidence and mortality rates. Most contemporary models in this regard use time series and APC (age-period-cohort) methods and focus primarily on predicting or analyzing cancer epidemiology with little attention being paid to implications for designing cancer registry, surveillance or evaluation initiatives. This research models age-specific cancer incidence rates using logistic growth equations and explores their performance under different scenarios of data completeness in the hope of deriving clues for reshaping relevant data collection. The study used China Cancer Registry Report 2012 as the data source. It employed 3-parameter logistic growth equations and modeled the age-specific incidence rates of all and the top 10 cancers presented in the registry report. The study performed 3 types of modeling, namely full age-span by fitting, multiple 5-year- segment fitting and single-segment fitting. Measurement of model performance adopted adjusted goodness of fit that combines sum of squred residuals and relative errors. Both model simulation and performance evalation utilized self-developed algorithms programed using C# languade and MS Visual Studio 2008. For models built upon full age-span data, predicted age-specific cancer incidence rates fitted very well with observed values for most (except cervical and breast) cancers with estimated goodness of fit (Rs) being over 0.96. When a given cancer is concerned, the R valuae of the logistic growth model derived using observed data from urban residents was greater than or at least equal to that of the same model built on data from rural people. For models based on multiple-5-year-segment data, the Rs remained fairly high (over 0.89) until 3-fourths of the data segments were excluded. For models using a fixed length single-segment of observed data, the older the age covered by the corresponding

  12. Model-based software design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iscoe, Neil; Liu, Zheng-Yang; Feng, Guohui; Yenne, Britt; Vansickle, Larry; Ballantyne, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Domain-specific knowledge is required to create specifications, generate code, and understand existing systems. Our approach to automating software design is based on instantiating an application domain model with industry-specific knowledge and then using that model to achieve the operational goals of specification elicitation and verification, reverse engineering, and code generation. Although many different specification models can be created from any particular domain model, each specification model is consistent and correct with respect to the domain model.

  13. The Quadratic Hazard Model for Analyzing Longitudinal Data on Aging, Health, and the Life Span

    PubMed Central

    Yashin, A.I.; Arbeev, K.G.; Akushevich, I.; Kulminski, A.; Ukraintseva, S.V.; Stallard, E.; Land, K.C.

    2012-01-01

    A better understanding of processes and mechanisms linking human aging with changes in health status and survival requires methods capable of analyzing new data that take into account knowledge about these processes accumulated in the field. In this paper, we describe an approach to analyses of longitudinal data based on the use of stochastic process models of human aging, health, and longevity which allows for incorporating state of the art advances in aging research into the model structure. In particular, the model incorporates the notions of resistance to stresses, adaptive capacity, and “optimal” (normal) physiological states. To capture the effects of exposure to persistent external disturbances, the notions of allostatic adaptation and allostatic load are introduced. These notions facilitate the description and explanation of deviations of individuals’ physiological indices from their normal states, which increase the chances of disease development and death. The model provides a convenient conceptual framework for comprehensive systemic analyses of aging-related changes in humans using longitudinal data and linking these changes with genotyping profiles, morbidity, and mortality risks. The model is used for developing new statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and longevity. PMID:22633776

  14. Learning-based prediction of gestational age from ultrasound images of the fetal brain.

    PubMed

    Namburete, Ana I L; Stebbing, Richard V; Kemp, Bryn; Yaqub, Mohammad; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Alison Noble, J

    2015-04-01

    We propose an automated framework for predicting gestational age (GA) and neurodevelopmental maturation of a fetus based on 3D ultrasound (US) brain image appearance. Our method capitalizes on age-related sonographic image patterns in conjunction with clinical measurements to develop, for the first time, a predictive age model which improves on the GA-prediction potential of US images. The framework benefits from a manifold surface representation of the fetal head which delineates the inner skull boundary and serves as a common coordinate system based on cranial position. This allows for fast and efficient sampling of anatomically-corresponding brain regions to achieve like-for-like structural comparison of different developmental stages. We develop bespoke features which capture neurosonographic patterns in 3D images, and using a regression forest classifier, we characterize structural brain development both spatially and temporally to capture the natural variation existing in a healthy population (N=447) over an age range of active brain maturation (18-34weeks). On a routine clinical dataset (N=187) our age prediction results strongly correlate with true GA (r=0.98,accurate within±6.10days), confirming the link between maturational progression and neurosonographic activity observable across gestation. Our model also outperforms current clinical methods by ±4.57 days in the third trimester-a period complicated by biological variations in the fetal population. Through feature selection, the model successfully identified the most age-discriminating anatomies over this age range as being the Sylvian fissure, cingulate, and callosal sulci. PMID:25624045

  15. Principles of models based engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Dolin, R.M.; Hefele, J.

    1996-11-01

    This report describes a Models Based Engineering (MBE) philosophy and implementation strategy that has been developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory`s Center for Advanced Engineering Technology. A major theme in this discussion is that models based engineering is an information management technology enabling the development of information driven engineering. Unlike other information management technologies, models based engineering encompasses the breadth of engineering information, from design intent through product definition to consumer application.

  16. A New, Discontinuous 2 Phases of Aging Model: Lessons from Drosophila melanogaster

    PubMed Central

    Tricoire, Hervé; Rera, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Aging is commonly described as being a continuous process affecting progressively organisms as time passes. This process results in a progressive decrease in individuals fitness through a wide range of both organismal–decreased motor activity, fertility, resistance to stress–and molecular phenotypes–decreased protein and energy homeostasis, impairment of insulin signaling. In the past 20 years, numerous genes have been identified as playing a major role in the aging process, yet little is known about the events leading to that loss of fitness. We recently described an event characterized by a dramatic increase of intestinal permeability to a blue food dye in aging flies committed to die within a few days. Importantly, flies showing this so called ‘Smurf’ phenotype are the only ones, among a population, to show various age-related changes and exhibit a high-risk of impending death whatever their chronological age. Thus, these observations suggest that instead of being one continuous phenomenon, aging may be a discontinuous process well described by at least two distinguishable phases. In this paper we addressed this hypothesis by implementing a new 2 Phases of Aging mathematiCal model (2PAC model) to simulate longevity curves based on the simple hypothesis of two consecutive phases of lifetime presenting different properties. We first present a unique equation for each phase and discuss the biological significance of the 3 associated parameters. Then we evaluate the influence of each parameter on the shape of survival curves. Overall, this new mathematical model, based on simple biological observations, is able to reproduce many experimental longevity curves, supporting the existence of 2 phases of aging exhibiting specific properties and separated by a dramatic transition that remains to be characterized. Moreover, it indicates that Smurf survival can be approximated by one single constant parameter for a broad range of genotypes that we have tested under

  17. A theory of the cancer age-specific incidence data based on extreme value distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soto-Ortiz, Luis; Brody, James P.

    2012-03-01

    The incidence of cancers varies with age, if normalized this is called the age-specific incidence. A mathematical model that describes this variation should provide a better understanding of how cancers develop. We suggest that the age-specific incidence should follow an extreme value distribution, based on three widely accepted assumptions: (1) a tumor develops from a single cell, (2) many potential tumor progenitor cells exist in a tissue, and (3) cancer is diagnosed when the first of these many potential tumor cells develops into a tumor. We tested this by comparing the predicted distribution to the age-specific incidence data for colon and prostate carcinomas collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results network of 17 cancer registries. We found that colon carcinoma age-specific incidence data is consistent with an extreme value distribution, while prostate carcinomas age-specific incidence data generally follows the distribution. This model indicates that both colon and prostate carcinomas only occur in a subset of the population (22% for prostate and 13.5% for colon.) Because of their very general nature, extreme value distributions might be applicable to understanding other chronic human diseases.

  18. Realistic modeling of environmental tracer migration and composite age distributions in a pine beetle impacted watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engdahl, N. B.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    Descriptions of age in hydrologic systems are often limited to the residence time in the surface water system or the subsurface with little consideration of the interaction between the two, or the different ways geochemical tracers are altered in each domain. Understanding the way tracer concentrations change in each domain is essential to accurate estimation of age, but few models have explicitly modeled the fully coupled system or considered distributions of age. This work presents a numerical laboratory that is specifically designed to investigate composite age distributions (CADs) and their connections to tracer concentrations. The CAD is defined here as the combination of the residence time distributions for surface flows, vadose zone, and groundwater systems, providing an accounting for the total time a discrete fluid parcel has spent within the integrated hydrologic system. CADs are generated by particle tracking through a fully integrated flow model and it is straight forward to realistically simulate the transport of environmental tracers such as 85-Krypton and 39-Argon that can be used for estimating water ages. This framework allows explicit modeling of the different processes in each domain that affect tracer concentrations including the mixing of different source waters, partial equilibrium with the atmosphere through the vadose zone, evaporative enrichment in surface flows, and diffusive fractionation in the subsurface. Transient forcings, such as seasonal or daily variations in precipitation, can also be simulated and the effects of this transience on concentrations and age distributions can easily be investigated. The model domain used to demonstrate these tools is based on a well-defined watershed within Rocky Mountain National Park. The mountain pine beetle has devastated the park's forests and the massive tree-kill has begun to affect the quality and distribution of the water resources. Accurate modeling of the CADs in the park is a crucial step

  19. Oxidative stress and age-related changes in T cells: is thalassemia a model of accelerated immune system aging?

    PubMed Central

    Ghatreh-Samani, Mahdi; Esmaeili, Nafiseh; Soleimani, Masoud; Asadi-Samani, Majid; Ghatreh-Samani, Keihan

    2016-01-01

    Iron overload in β-thalassemia major occurs mainly due to blood transfusion, an essential treatment for β-thalassemia major patients, which results in oxidative stress. It has been thought that oxidative stress causes elevation of immune system senescent cells. Under this condition, cells normally enhance in aging, which is referred to as premature immunosenescence. Because there is no animal model for immunosenescence, most knowledge on the immunosenescence pattern is based on induction of immunosenescence. In this review, we describe iron overload and oxidative stress in β-thalassemia major patients and how they make these patients a suitable human model for immunosenescence. We also consider oxidative stress in some kinds of chronic virus infections, which induce changes in the immune system similar to β-thalassemia major. In conclusion, a therapeutic approach used to improve the immune system in such chronic virus diseases, may change the immunosenescence state and make life conditions better for β-thalassemia major patients. PMID:27095931

  20. Aging and associative recognition: A view from the DRYAD model of age-related memory deficits.

    PubMed

    Benjamin, Aaron S

    2016-02-01

    How do we best characterize the memory deficits that accompany aging? A popular hypothesis, articulated originally by Naveh-Benjamin (2000) and reviewed in the accompanying article by Smyth and Naveh-Benjamin (2016), suggests that older adults are selectively deficient in establishing associations between to-be-learned memoranda and as a result have deficits in memory for sources or contexts. An alternative proposal, called density of representations yields age-related deficits (DRYAD) and outlined in recent articles by Benjamin (2010) and colleagues (Benjamin, Diaz, Matzen, & Johnson, 2012), attributes disproportionate deficits in memory to a global, rather than a selective, deficit of memory. In an attempt to adjudicate between these competing positions, Smyth and Naveh-Benjamin (2016) discussed 2 sets of experimental data that they claim speak against the global deficit model. Here I review some general principles of how the global-deficit view is applied to experimental paradigms and demonstrate that even a simplified form of DRYAD can comfortably accommodate the critical findings cited by Smyth and Naveh-Benjamin. I also evaluate aspects of their results that may be problematic for DRYAD and describe ways in which DRYAD's account of associative recognition can be falsified. I end with a discussion of the complementary strengths and weaknesses of the 2 approaches and consider ways in which the associative deficit hypothesis and DRYAD might work more profitably together than apart. PMID:26866587

  1. Cognitive aging and hearing acuity: modeling spoken language comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Wingfield, Arthur; Amichetti, Nicole M.; Lash, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    The comprehension of spoken language has been characterized by a number of “local” theories that have focused on specific aspects of the task: models of word recognition, models of selective attention, accounts of thematic role assignment at the sentence level, and so forth. The ease of language understanding (ELU) model (Rönnberg et al., 2013) stands as one of the few attempts to offer a fully encompassing framework for language understanding. In this paper we discuss interactions between perceptual, linguistic, and cognitive factors in spoken language understanding. Central to our presentation is an examination of aspects of the ELU model that apply especially to spoken language comprehension in adult aging, where speed of processing, working memory capacity, and hearing acuity are often compromised. We discuss, in relation to the ELU model, conceptions of working memory and its capacity limitations, the use of linguistic context to aid in speech recognition and the importance of inhibitory control, and language comprehension at the sentence level. Throughout this paper we offer a constructive look at the ELU model; where it is strong and where there are gaps to be filled. PMID:26124724

  2. SFT based cosmological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koshelev, Alexey S.

    2010-11-01

    We consider the appearance of multiple scalar fields in SFT inspired non-local models with a single scalar field at late times. In this regime all the scalar fields are free. This system minimally coupled to gravity is mainly analyzed in this note. We build one exact solution to the equations of motion. We consider an exactly solvable model which obeys a simple exact solution in the cosmological context for the Friedmann equations and that reproduces the behavior expected from SFT in the asymptotic regime.

  3. Rule-Based Category Learning in Children: The Role of Age and Executive Functioning

    PubMed Central

    Rabi, Rahel; Minda, John Paul

    2014-01-01

    Rule-based category learning was examined in 4–11 year-olds and adults. Participants were asked to learn a set of novel perceptual categories in a classification learning task. Categorization performance improved with age, with younger children showing the strongest rule-based deficit relative to older children and adults. Model-based analyses provided insight regarding the type of strategy being used to solve the categorization task, demonstrating that the use of the task appropriate strategy increased with age. When children and adults who identified the correct categorization rule were compared, the performance deficit was no longer evident. Executive functions were also measured. While both working memory and inhibitory control were related to rule-based categorization and improved with age, working memory specifically was found to marginally mediate the age-related improvements in categorization. When analyses focused only on the sample of children, results showed that working memory ability and inhibitory control were associated with categorization performance and strategy use. The current findings track changes in categorization performance across childhood, demonstrating at which points performance begins to mature and resemble that of adults. Additionally, findings highlight the potential role that working memory and inhibitory control may play in rule-based category learning. PMID:24489658

  4. Constitutive Modeling and Testing of Polymer Matrix Composites Incorporating Physical Aging at Elevated Temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veazie, David R.

    1998-01-01

    Advanced polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are desirable for structural materials in diverse applications such as aircraft, civil infrastructure and biomedical implants because of their improved strength-to-weight and stiffness-to-weight ratios. For example, the next generation military and commercial aircraft requires applications for high strength, low weight structural components subjected to elevated temperatures. A possible disadvantage of polymer-based composites is that the physical and mechanical properties of the matrix often change significantly over time due to the exposure of elevated temperatures and environmental factors. For design, long term exposure (i.e. aging) of PMC's must be accounted for through constitutive models in order to accurately assess the effects of aging on performance, crack initiation and remaining life. One particular aspect of this aging process, physical aging, is considered in this research.

  5. Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Swaziland: Modeling the Impact of Age Targeting

    PubMed Central

    Kripke, Katharine; Okello, Velephi; Maziya, Vusi; Benzerga, Wendy; Mirira, Munamato; Gold, Elizabeth; Schnure, Melissa; Sgaier, Sema; Castor, Delivette; Reed, Jason

    2016-01-01

    Background Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention has been a priority for Swaziland since 2009. Initially focusing on men ages 15–49, the Ministry of Health reduced the minimum age for VMMC from 15 to 10 years in 2012, given the existing demand among 10- to 15-year-olds. To understand the implications of focusing VMMC service delivery on specific age groups, the MOH undertook a modeling exercise to inform policy and implementation in 2013–2014. Methods and Findings The impact and cost of circumcising specific age groups were assessed using the Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a simple compartmental model. We used age-specific HIV incidence from the Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS). Population, mortality, births, and HIV prevalence were imported from a national Spectrum/Goals model recently updated in consultation with country stakeholders. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the most recent Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey. The lowest numbers of VMMCs per HIV infection averted are achieved when males ages 15–19, 20–24, 25–29, and 30–34 are circumcised, although the uncertainty bounds for the estimates overlap. Circumcising males ages 25–29 and 20–24 provides the most immediate reduction in HIV incidence. Circumcising males ages 15–19, 20–24, and 25–29 provides the greatest magnitude incidence reduction within 15 years. The lowest cost per HIV infection averted is achieved by circumcising males ages 15–34: $870 U.S. dollars (USD). Conclusions The potential impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up in Swaziland are not uniform. They vary by the age group of males circumcised. Based on the results of this modeling exercise, the Ministry of Health’s Swaziland Male Circumcision Strategic and Operational Plan 2014–2018 adopted an implementation strategy that calls for circumcision to be scaled up to 50% coverage for neonates, 80

  6. Age-aware solder performance models : level 2 milestone completion.

    SciTech Connect

    Neilsen, Michael K.; Vianco, Paul Thomas; Neidigk, Matthew Aaron; Holm, Elizabeth Ann

    2010-09-01

    Legislated requirements and industry standards are replacing eutectic lead-tin (Pb-Sn) solders with lead-free (Pb-free) solders in future component designs and in replacements and retrofits. Since Pb-free solders have not yet seen service for long periods, their long-term behavior is poorly characterized. Because understanding the reliability of Pb-free solders is critical to supporting the next generation of circuit board designs, it is imperative that we develop, validate and exercise a solder lifetime model that can capture the thermomechanical response of Pb-free solder joints in stockpile components. To this end, an ASC Level 2 milestone was identified for fiscal year 2010: Milestone 3605: Utilize experimentally validated constitutive model for lead-free solder to simulate aging and reliability of solder joints in stockpile components. This report documents the completion of this milestone, including evidence that the milestone completion criteria were met and a summary of the milestone Program Review.

  7. Rule-based simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nieten, Joseph L.; Seraphine, Kathleen M.

    1991-01-01

    Procedural modeling systems, rule based modeling systems, and a method for converting a procedural model to a rule based model are described. Simulation models are used to represent real time engineering systems. A real time system can be represented by a set of equations or functions connected so that they perform in the same manner as the actual system. Most modeling system languages are based on FORTRAN or some other procedural language. Therefore, they must be enhanced with a reaction capability. Rule based systems are reactive by definition. Once the engineering system has been decomposed into a set of calculations using only basic algebraic unary operations, a knowledge network of calculations and functions can be constructed. The knowledge network required by a rule based system can be generated by a knowledge acquisition tool or a source level compiler. The compiler would take an existing model source file, a syntax template, and a symbol table and generate the knowledge network. Thus, existing procedural models can be translated and executed by a rule based system. Neural models can be provide the high capacity data manipulation required by the most complex real time models.

  8. The age-metallicity-velocity dispersion relation in the solar neighborhood and a simple evolution model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meusinger, H.; Stecklum, B.; Reimann, H.-G.

    1991-05-01

    An analysis of the age-metallicity relation (AMR) based on previous data is conducted again and the age-velocity relation (AVR) is estimated for some nearby stars to examine connections between the relations. In the period of evolution of the galactic disk, an important relationship with age is determined for both AMR and AVR. The observed metallicity-velocity relation is compared to the predicted relation to verify the AVR and AMR derivations. A model is presented in which the star formation rate, the infall rate of gas, and the initial mass function are constant. The model is found to agree with observed constraints on star counts in the solar neighborhood and constraints on the chemical and kinematical evolution of the local disk. A theory regarding the primary heating mechanism of the galactic disk is developed in terms of the AVR, and possible explanations - massive gas clouds and transient spiral waves - are discussed.

  9. Anti-Aging Strategies Based on Cellular Reprogramming.

    PubMed

    Ocampo, Alejandro; Reddy, Pradeep; Izpisua Belmonte, Juan Carlos

    2016-08-01

    Aging can be defined as the progressive decline in the ability of a cell or organism to resist stress and disease. Recent advances in cellular reprogramming technologies have enabled detailed analyses of the aging process, often involving cell types derived from aged individuals, or patients with premature aging syndromes. In this review we discuss how cellular reprogramming allows the recapitulation of aging in a dish, describing novel experimental approaches to investigate the aging process. Finally, we explore the role of epigenetic dysregulation as a driver of aging, discussing how epigenetic reprogramming may be harnessed to ameliorate aging hallmarks, both in vitro and in vivo. A better understanding of the reprogramming process may indeed assist the development of novel therapeutic strategies to extend a healthy lifespan. PMID:27426043

  10. Effect of Age of Models in Print Ads on Evaluation of Product and Sponsor.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rotfeld, Herbert J.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Details a study that investigated how middle-aged housewives responded to different age portrayals for different age-oriented products in advertisements. Concludes that there was a clear interaction between age-orientation of product and age of model in an advertisement, but no pervasive "younger is better" effect. (FL)

  11. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site to initiate a request. A participant's ability to complete an age-based withdrawal on the Web will depend...

  12. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site to initiate a request. A participant's ability to complete an age-based withdrawal on the Web will depend...

  13. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site to initiate a request. A participant's ability to complete an age-based withdrawal on the Web will depend...

  14. Compact modeling of total ionizing dose and aging effects in MOS technologies

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Esqueda, Ivan S.; Barnaby, Hugh J.; King, Michael Patrick

    2015-06-18

    This paper presents a physics-based compact modeling approach that incorporates the impact of total ionizing dose (TID) and stress-induced defects into simulations of metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices and integrated circuits (ICs). This approach utilizes calculations of surface potential (ψs) to capture the charge contribution from oxide trapped charge and interface traps and to describe their impact on MOS electrostatics and device operating characteristics as a function of ionizing radiation exposure and aging effects. The modeling approach is demonstrated for bulk and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) MOS device. The formulation is verified using TCAD simulations and through the comparison of model calculations and experimentalmore » I-V characteristics from irradiated devices. The presented approach is suitable for modeling TID and aging effects in advanced MOS devices and ICs.« less

  15. Compact modeling of total ionizing dose and aging effects in MOS technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Esqueda, Ivan S.; Barnaby, Hugh J.; King, Michael Patrick

    2015-06-18

    This paper presents a physics-based compact modeling approach that incorporates the impact of total ionizing dose (TID) and stress-induced defects into simulations of metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices and integrated circuits (ICs). This approach utilizes calculations of surface potential (ψs) to capture the charge contribution from oxide trapped charge and interface traps and to describe their impact on MOS electrostatics and device operating characteristics as a function of ionizing radiation exposure and aging effects. The modeling approach is demonstrated for bulk and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) MOS device. The formulation is verified using TCAD simulations and through the comparison of model calculations and experimental I-V characteristics from irradiated devices. The presented approach is suitable for modeling TID and aging effects in advanced MOS devices and ICs.

  16. Stochastic Process Model of Physiological Regeneration, Fertility and Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akushevich, Igor; Manton, Kenneth

    2003-03-01

    A state space model of human birth, death processes is presented based upon a generalization of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (F-P-K) diffusion equation. In the model it is assumed that males and females are linked through the birth process and that birth and fetal growth, itself possibly described by a F-P-K equation, generates new probability mass in the population state space. Specific case of radiation as a risk factor is considered and analyzed. Life time generator is constructed on the basis of the developed model and its results are compared with existent physiological longitudinal data.

  17. Modeling Diverse Pathways to Age Progressive Volcanism in Subduction Zones.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kincaid, C. R.; Szwaja, S.; Sylvia, R. T.; Druken, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    One of the best, and most challenging clues to unraveling mantle circulation patterns in subduction zones comes in the form of age progressive volcanic and geochemical trends. Hard fought geological data from many subduction zones, like Tonga-Lau, the Cascades and Costa-Rica/Nicaragua, reveal striking temporal patterns used in defining mantle flow directions and rates. We summarize results from laboratory subduction models showing a range in circulation and thermal-chemical transport processes. These interaction styles are capable of producing such trends, often reflecting apparent instead of actual mantle velocities. Lab experiments use a glucose working fluid to represent Earth's upper mantle and kinematically driven plates to produce a range in slab sinking and related wedge transport patterns. Kinematic forcing assumes most of the super-adiabatic temperature gradient available to drive major downwellings is in the tabular slabs. Moreover, sinking styles for fully dynamic subduction depend on many complicating factors that are only poorly understood and which can vary widely even for repeated parameter combinations. Kinematic models have the benefit of precise, repeatable control of slab motions and wedge flow responses. Results generated with these techniques show the evolution of near-surface thermal-chemical-rheological heterogeneities leads to age progressive surface expressions in a variety of ways. One set of experiments shows that rollback and back-arc extension combine to produce distinct modes of linear, age progressive melt delivery to the surface through a) erosion of the rheological boundary layer beneath the overriding plate, and deformation and redistribution of both b) mantle residuum produced from decompression melting and c) formerly active, buoyant plumes. Additional experiments consider buoyant diapirs rising in a wedge under the influence of rollback, back-arc spreading and slab-gaps. Strongly deflected diapirs, experiencing variable rise

  18. Oxidative Stress and Protein Quality Control Systems in the Aged Canine Brain as a Model for Human Neurodegenerative Disorders

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Aged dogs are considered the most suitable spontaneous animal model for studying normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases. Elderly canines naturally develop cognitive dysfunction and neuropathological hallmarks similar to those seen in humans, especially Alzheimer's disease-like pathology. Pet dogs also share similar living conditions and diets to humans. Oxidative damage accumulates in the canine brain during aging, making dogs a valid model for translational antioxidant treatment/prevention studies. Evidence suggests the presence of detective protein quality control systems, involving ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS) and Heat Shock Proteins (HSPs), in the aged canine brain. Further studies on the canine model are needed to clarify the role of age-related changes in UPS activity and HSP expression in neurodegeneration in order to design novel treatment strategies, such as HSP-based therapies, aimed at improving chaperone defences against proteotoxic stress affecting brain during aging. PMID:26078824

  19. Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanafiah, Hazlenah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2013-11-01

    In recent years, the study of fertility has been getting a lot of attention among research abroad following fear of deterioration of fertility led by the rapid economy development. Hence, this study examines the feasibility of developing fertility forecasts based on age structure. Lee Carter model (1992) is applied in this study as it is an established and widely used model in analysing demographic aspects. A singular value decomposition approach is incorporated with an ARIMA model to estimate age specific fertility rates in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1958-2007. Residual plots is used to measure the goodness of fit of the model. Fertility index forecast using random walk drift is then utilised to predict the future age specific fertility. Results indicate that the proposed model provides a relatively good and reasonable data fitting. In addition, there is an apparent and continuous decline in age specific fertility curves in the next 10 years, particularly among mothers' in their early 20's and 40's. The study on the fertility is vital in order to maintain a balance between the population growth and the provision of facilities related resources.

  20. Active Aging for Individuals with Parkinson's Disease: Definitions, Literature Review, and Models

    PubMed Central

    Lökk, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Active aging has been emerged to optimize different aspects of health opportunities during the aging process in order to enhance quality of life. Yet, most of the efforts are on normal aging and less attention has been paid for the elderly suffering from a chronic illness such as Parkinson's disease (PD). The aim of this review was to investigate how the concept of “active aging” fit for the elderly with PD and to propose a new model for them using the recent improvements in caring models and management approaches. For this purpose, biomedical databases have been assessed using relevant keywords to find out appropriate articles. Movement problems of PD affect physical activity, psychiatric symptoms lessen social communication, and cognitive impairment could worsen mental well-being in elderly with PD, all of which could lead to earlier retirement and poorer quality of life compared with healthy elderly. Based on the multisystematic nature of PD, a new “Active Aging Model for Parkinson's Disease” is proposed consisting of self-care, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary care, palliative care, patient-centered care, and personalized care. These strategies could potentially help the individuals with PD to have a better management approach for their condition towards the concept of active aging. PMID:25225618

  1. Model based vibration monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Esat, I.; Paya, B.; Badi, M.N.M.

    1996-11-01

    The principal source of vibratory excitation of gear system is the unsteady component of the relative angular motion of pair of meshing spur gears. This vibratory excitation is described by the transmission error. The transmission error present itself as a varying force at the contact point of the meshing gear teeth. The varying force is also influenced by the varying tooth stiffness due to change of orientation of teeth relative to each other, during the contact phase of each pair. Such a varying force produces both lateral and torsional excitation to the gear system. This paper presents analytical formulation of a simple two meshing spur gear system as a three mass system (18 DOF). The mathematical model also incorporates the analytical formulation of the tooth stiffness. The analytical results are compared with the experimental results. At this stage of analysis the procedure developed for handling the nonlinear influences of the tooth geometry is not fully implemented and the tooth stiffness taken as a constant value representing the average tooth stiffness. The comparison between the analytical and experimental results are encouraging as three main frequency obtained from FFT of the experimental results correlates very closely with the analytical results.

  2. Basis for the ICRP`s age-specific biokinetic model for uranium

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.

    1994-12-01

    In an effort motivated largely by the Chernobyl nuclear accident, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is developing age-specific biokinetic models and dose coefficients for environmentally important radionuclides. This paper describes the ICRP`s age-specific biokinetic model for uranium. The model is constructed within a physiologically based framework originally developed for application to the alkaline earth elements but sufficiently general to apply to the larger class of bone-volume-seeking elements. Transfer rates for a reference adult are based mainly on: (1) measurements of uranium in blood and excreta of several human subjects who were intravenously injected with uranium; (2) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of some of those subjects; (3) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of occupationally and non-occupationally exposed subjects; (4) data on baboons, dogs, and smaller laboratory animals exposed to uranium for experimental purposes; and (5) consideration of the physiological processes thought to control retention and translocation of uranium in the body. Transfer rates for the adult are extended to children by application of a set of generic assumptions applied by the ICRP to calcium-like elements. These assumptions were derived mainly from observations of the age-specific biokinetics of the alkaline earth elements and lead in humans and laboratory animals but are consistent with available age-specific biokinetic data on uranium. 82 refs., 17 figs., 8 tabs.

  3. Epigenetic contribution to age distribution of mortality within the Penna model.

    PubMed

    Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M S; Maksymowicz, A Z

    2015-06-01

    Some modifications of the simple asexual Penna model, enriched by epigenetic contributions, are presented. The standard bit-string Penna model of biological aging and population evolution is based on an inherited DNA structure which defines the future life of a newly born individuals, when genes are activated by the biological clock, and the predefined genetic death is fully controlled by the number of defected genes. Epigenomes allow to introduce additional mechanism of gene activation or silencing without affecting the DNA genome itself. It may be either inherited or may reflect external, environmental factors. In the presented model, information read from the introduced epigenome may alter gene expression that may be stopped or re-activated. We concentrate on the influence of epigenetics on the age a distribution of genetic mortality m(a). Changes in m(a) are strong for the case of inherited epigenetic contribution with nearly perfect inheritance and 'positive' epigenome that partly ignores the 'bad' mutations. We conclude that the epigenetic contribution may influence population structure m(a) and could be, at least partly, responsible for deviation of m(a) distribution from the Gompertz law. In short, we claim that proposed epigenetic contribution may be seen as a candidate for possible explanation of observed deviation from the Gompertz law, also among senior members of society. A very simple model was used in this paper and many crucial mechanisms of biological aging were omitted. Therefore, further work based on a more realistic models is necessary. PMID:25666268

  4. Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model.

    PubMed

    Mellem, Daniel; Fischer, Frank; Jaspers, Sören; Wenck, Horst; Rübhausen, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes. PMID:26771181

  5. Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model

    PubMed Central

    Mellem, Daniel; Fischer, Frank; Jaspers, Sören; Wenck, Horst; Rübhausen, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes. PMID:26771181

  6. A Population-based Study of Age Inequalities in Access to Palliative Care Among Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Burge, Frederick I.; Lawson, Beverley J.; Johnston, Grace M.; Grunfeld, Eva

    2013-01-01

    Background Inequalities in access to palliative care programs (PCP) by age have been shown to exist in Canada and elsewhere. Few studies have been able to provide greater insight by simultaneously adjusting for multiple demographic, health service, and socio-cultural indicators. Objective To re-examine the relationship between age and registration to specialized community-based PCP programs among cancer patients and identify the multiple indicators contributing to these inequalities. Methods This retrospective, population-based study was a secondary data analysis of linked individual level information extracted from 6 administrative health databases and contextual (neighborhood level) data from provincial and census information. Subjects included all adults who died due to cancer between 1998 and 2003 living within 2 District Health Authorities in the province of Nova Scotia, Canada. The relationship between registration in a PCP and age was examined using hierarchical nonlinear regression modeling techniques. Identification of potential patient and ecologic contributing indicators was guided by Andersen’s conceptual model of health service utilization. Results Overall, 66% of 7511 subjects were registered with a PCP. Older subjects were significantly less likely than those <65 years of age to be registered with a PCP, in particular those aged 85 years and older (adjusted odds ratio: 0.4; 95% confidence interval: 0.3–0.5). Distance to the closest cancer center had a major impact on registration. Conclusions Age continues to be a significant predictor of PCP registration in Nova Scotia even after controlling for the confounding effects of many new demographic, health service, and ecologic indicators. PMID:19300309

  7. Ploidy, sex and crossing over in an evolutionary aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo, Matheus P.; Onody, Roberto N.

    2006-02-01

    Nowadays, many forms of reproduction coexist in nature: Asexual, sexual, apomictic and meiotic parthenogenesis, hermaphroditism and parasex. The mechanisms of their evolution and what made them successful reproductive alternatives are very challenging and debated questions. Here, using a simple evolutionary aging model, we give a possible scenario. By studying the performance of populations where individuals may have diverse characteristics-different ploidies, sex with or without crossing over, as well as the absence of sex-we find an evolution sequence that may explain why there are actually two major or leading groups: Sexual and asexual. We also investigate the dependence of these characteristics on different conditions of fertility and deleterious mutations. Finally, if the primeval organisms on Earth were, in fact, asexual individuals we conjecture that the sexual form of reproduction could have more easily been set and found its niche during a period of low-intensity mutations.

  8. Structured additive regression modeling of age of menarche and menopause in a breast cancer screening program.

    PubMed

    Duarte, Elisa; de Sousa, Bruno; Cadarso-Suarez, Carmen; Rodrigues, Vitor; Kneib, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Breast cancer risk is believed to be associated with several reproductive factors, such as early menarche and late menopause. This study is based on the registries of the first time a woman enters the screening program, and presents a spatio-temporal analysis of the variables age of menarche and age of menopause along with other reproductive and socioeconomic factors. The database was provided by the Portuguese Cancer League (LPCC), a private nonprofit organization dealing with multiple issues related to oncology of which the Breast Cancer Screening Program is one of its main activities. The registry consists of 259,652 records of women who entered the screening program for the first time between 1990 and 2007 (45-69-year age group). Structured Additive Regression (STAR) models were used to explore spatial and temporal correlations with a wide range of covariates. These models are flexible enough to deal with a variety of complex datasets, allowing us to reveal possible relationships among the variables considered in this study. The analysis shows that early menarche occurs in younger women and in municipalities located in the interior of central Portugal. Women living in inland municipalities register later ages for menopause, and those born in central Portugal after 1933 show a decreasing trend in the age of menopause. Younger ages of menarche and late menopause are observed in municipalities with a higher purchasing power index. The analysis performed in this study portrays the time evolution of the age of menarche and age of menopause and their spatial characterization, adding to the identification of factors that could be of the utmost importance in future breast cancer incidence research. PMID:24615881

  9. Age-Related Effects of Alcohol from Adolescent, Adult, and Aged Populations Using Human and Animal Models

    PubMed Central

    Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Boissoneault, Jeff; Van Skike, Candice E.; Nixon, Sara Jo; Matthews, Douglas B.

    2014-01-01

    Background This review incorporates current research examining alcohol's differential effects on adolescents, adults, and aged populations in both animal and clinical models. Methods The studies presented range from cognitive, behavioral, molecular, and neuroimaging techniques, leading to a more comprehensive understanding of how acute and chronic alcohol use affects the brain throughout the life span. Results Age of life is a significant factor in determining the effect of alcohol on brain functioning. Adolescents and aged populations may be more negatively affected by heavy alcohol use when compared to adults. Conclusions Investigations limiting alcohol effects to a single age group constrains understanding of differential trajectories and outcomes following acute and chronic use. To meaningfully address the sequencing and interaction effects of alcohol and age, the field must incorporate collaborative and integrated research efforts focused on interdisciplinary questions facilitated by engaging basic and applied scientists with expertise in a range of disciplines including alcohol, neurodevelopment, and aging. PMID:25156779

  10. [Skin aging and evidence-based topical strategies].

    PubMed

    Bayerl, C

    2016-02-01

    Anti-aging in dermatology primarily focuses on the prevention of skin aging with UV protection (clothing and sunsceens), free radical scavengers (synthetic or botanic), and cell-protecting agents such as vitamin B3. For the correction of signs of early skin aging, retinoic acid derivatives in dermatological prescriptions are the best studied substances. Topical hormonal prescriptions are also an option if UV damage has not been the leading culprit for aging. Chemical peeling leads to a marked increase in collagen formation, the deaper the better. Ingredients in cream preparations can reduce superficial skin folds (polyphenols, amino acid peptides). Modulators of regular pigmentation are important for anti-aging preparations. Growth factors (plant extracts, recombinant growth factors) are not thoroughly studied regarding the cost-benefit and risk ratio. Complex precedures such as photodynamic therapy have an impact on the appearance of aged skin. PMID:26683808

  11. Rule-based and information-integration category learning in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Maddox, W Todd; Pacheco, Jennifer; Reeves, Maia; Zhu, Bo; Schnyer, David M

    2010-08-01

    The basal ganglia and prefrontal cortex play critical roles in category learning. Both regions evidence age-related structural and functional declines. The current study examined rule-based and information-integration category learning in a group of older and younger adults. Rule-based learning is thought to involve explicit, frontally mediated processes, whereas information-integration is thought to involve implicit, striatally mediated processes. As a group, older adults showed rule-based and information-integration deficits. A series of models were applied that provided insights onto the type of strategy used to solve the task. Interestingly, when the analyses focused only on participants who used the task appropriate strategy in the final block of trials, the age-related rule-based deficit disappeared whereas the information-integration deficit remained. For this group of individuals, the final block information-integration deficit was due to less consistent application of the task appropriate strategy by older adults, and over the course of learning these older adults shifted from an explicit hypothesis-testing strategy to the task appropriate strategy later in learning. In addition, the use of the task appropriate strategy was associated with less interference and better inhibitory control for rule-based and information-information learning, whereas use of the task appropriate strategy was associated with greater working memory and better new verbal learning only for the rule-based task. These results suggest that normal aging impacts both forms of category learning and that there are some important similarities and differences in the explanatory locus of these deficits. The data also support a two-component model of information-integration category learning that includes a striatal component that mediated procedural-based learning, and a prefrontal cortical component that mediates the transition from hypothesis-testing to procedural-based strategies

  12. Model-Based Safety Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joshi, Anjali; Heimdahl, Mats P. E.; Miller, Steven P.; Whalen, Mike W.

    2006-01-01

    System safety analysis techniques are well established and are used extensively during the design of safety-critical systems. Despite this, most of the techniques are highly subjective and dependent on the skill of the practitioner. Since these analyses are usually based on an informal system model, it is unlikely that they will be complete, consistent, and error free. In fact, the lack of precise models of the system architecture and its failure modes often forces the safety analysts to devote much of their effort to gathering architectural details about the system behavior from several sources and embedding this information in the safety artifacts such as the fault trees. This report describes Model-Based Safety Analysis, an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. By extending the system model with a fault model as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support can be provided for much of the safety analysis. We believe that by using a common model for both system and safety engineering and automating parts of the safety analysis, we can both reduce the cost and improve the quality of the safety analysis. Here we present our vision of model-based safety analysis and discuss the advantages and challenges in making this approach practical.

  13. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  14. Constraint Based Modeling Going Multicellular

    PubMed Central

    Martins Conde, Patricia do Rosario; Sauter, Thomas; Pfau, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Constraint based modeling has seen applications in many microorganisms. For example, there are now established methods to determine potential genetic modifications and external interventions to increase the efficiency of microbial strains in chemical production pipelines. In addition, multiple models of multicellular organisms have been created including plants and humans. While initially the focus here was on modeling individual cell types of the multicellular organism, this focus recently started to switch. Models of microbial communities, as well as multi-tissue models of higher organisms have been constructed. These models thereby can include different parts of a plant, like root, stem, or different tissue types in the same organ. Such models can elucidate details of the interplay between symbiotic organisms, as well as the concerted efforts of multiple tissues and can be applied to analyse the effects of drugs or mutations on a more systemic level. In this review we give an overview of the recent development of multi-tissue models using constraint based techniques and the methods employed when investigating these models. We further highlight advances in combining constraint based models with dynamic and regulatory information and give an overview of these types of hybrid or multi-level approaches. PMID:26904548

  15. 'Age-hardened alloy' based on bulk polycrystalline oxide ceramic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurnani, Luv; Singh, Mahesh Kumar; Bhargava, Parag; Mukhopadhyay, Amartya

    2015-05-01

    We report here for the first time the development of 'age-hardened/toughened' ceramic alloy based on MgO in the bulk polycrystalline form. This route allows for the facile development of a 'near-ideal' microstructure characterized by the presence of nanosized and uniformly dispersed second-phase particles (MgFe2O4) within the matrix grains, as well as along the matrix grain boundaries, in a controlled manner. Furthermore, the intragranular second-phase particles are rendered coherent with the matrix (MgO). Development of such microstructural features for two-phase bulk polycrystalline ceramics is extremely challenging following the powder metallurgical route usually adopted for the development of bulk ceramic nanocomposites. Furthermore, unlike for the case of ceramic nanocomposites, the route adopted here does not necessitate the usage of nano-powder, pressure/electric field-assisted sintering techniques and inert/reducing atmosphere. The as-developed bulk polycrystalline MgO-MgFe2O4 alloys possess considerably improved hardness (by ~52%) and indentation toughness (by ~35%), as compared to phase pure MgO.

  16. A method for estimating gestational age of fetal remains based on long bone lengths.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Cristiana; Curate, Francisco; Cunha, Eugénia

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of gestational age (GA) in fetal human remains is important in forensic settings, particularly to assess fetal viability, in addition to often being the only biological profile parameter that can be assessed with some accuracy for non-adults. The length of long bone diaphysis is one of the most frequently used methods for fetal age estimation. The main objective of this study was to present a simple and objective method for estimating GA based on the measurements of the diaphysis of the femur, tibia, fibula, humerus, ulna, and radius. Conventional least squares regression equations (classical and inverse calibration approaches) and quick reference tables were generated. A supplementary objective was to compare the performance of the new formulae against previously published models. The sample comprised 257 fetuses (136 females and 121 males) with known GA (between 12 and 40 weeks) and was selected based on clinical and pathological information. All measurements were performed on radiographic images acquired in anonymous clinical autopsy records from spontaneous and therapeutic abortions in two Portuguese hospitals. The proposed technique is straightforward and reproducible. The models for the GA estimation are exceedingly accurate and unbiased. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show that both perform exceptionally well, with high accuracy and low bias. Also, the newly developed equations generally outperform earlier methods of GA estimation in forensic contexts. Quick reference tables for each long bone are now available. The obtained models for the estimation of gestational age are of great applicability in forensic contexts. PMID:27251047

  17. Multi-State Physics Models of Aging Passive Components in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Layton, Robert F.; Heasler, Patrick G.; Toloczko, Mychailo B.

    2011-03-13

    Multi-state Markov modeling has proved to be a promising approach to estimating the reliability of passive components - particularly metallic pipe components - in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). These models consider the progressive degradation of a component through a series of observable discrete states, such as detectable flaw, leak and rupture. Service data then generally provides the basis for estimating the state transition rates. Research in materials science is producing a growing understanding of the physical phenomena that govern the aging degradation of passive pipe components. As a result, there is an emerging opportunity to incorporate these insights into PRA. This paper describes research conducted under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Pathway of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. A state transition model is described that addresses aging behavior associated with stress corrosion cracking in ASME Class 1 dissimilar metal welds – a component type relevant to LOCA analysis. The state transition rate estimates are based on physics models of weld degradation rather than service data. The resultant model is found to be non-Markov in that the transition rates are time-inhomogeneous and stochastic. Numerical solutions to the model provide insight into the effect of aging on component reliability.

  18. Modeling Guru: Knowledge Base for NASA Modelers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seablom, M. S.; Wojcik, G. S.; van Aartsen, B. H.

    2009-05-01

    Modeling Guru is an on-line knowledge-sharing resource for anyone involved with or interested in NASA's scientific models or High End Computing (HEC) systems. Developed and maintained by the NASA's Software Integration and Visualization Office (SIVO) and the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS), Modeling Guru's combined forums and knowledge base for research and collaboration is becoming a repository for the accumulated expertise of NASA's scientific modeling and HEC communities. All NASA modelers and associates are encouraged to participate and provide knowledge about the models and systems so that other users may benefit from their experience. Modeling Guru is divided into a hierarchy of communities, each with its own set forums and knowledge base documents. Current modeling communities include those for space science, land and atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, and oceanography. In addition, there are communities focused on NCCS systems, HEC tools and libraries, and programming and scripting languages. Anyone may view most of the content on Modeling Guru (available at http://modelingguru.nasa.gov/), but you must log in to post messages and subscribe to community postings. The site offers a full range of "Web 2.0" features, including discussion forums, "wiki" document generation, document uploading, RSS feeds, search tools, blogs, email notification, and "breadcrumb" links. A discussion (a.k.a. forum "thread") is used to post comments, solicit feedback, or ask questions. If marked as a question, SIVO will monitor the thread, and normally respond within a day. Discussions can include embedded images, tables, and formatting through the use of the Rich Text Editor. Also, the user can add "Tags" to their thread to facilitate later searches. The "knowledge base" is comprised of documents that are used to capture and share expertise with others. The default "wiki" document lets users edit within the browser so others can easily collaborate on the

  19. Cyclostratigraphy for Chinese red clay sequences: Implications to changing previous age models and paleoclimate interpretations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anwar, T.; Kravchinsky, V. A.; Zhang, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Chinese Loess Plateau contains red clay sequence which has continuous alternation of sedimentary cycles with recurrent paleoclimatic fluctuations. Absence of abundant fossils and inability of radiometric dating method made magnetostratigraphy a leading method to build age model for the red clay. Here magnetostratigraphic age model in red clay sequence is tested using cyclostratigraphy as orbital parameters of Earth are known. Milankovitch periodicities recorded in magnetic susceptibility and grain size in the Shilou red clay section are investigated and previously found age of 11 Ma for this section is re-evaluated. Magnetostratigraphy dating based on only visual correlation could potentially lead to erroneous age model. In this study the correlation is executed through the iteration procedure until it is supported by cyclostratigraphy; i.e. Milankovitch cycles are resolved in the best possible manner. Our new approach provides an age of 5.2 Ma for the Shilou profile. Wavelet analysis reveals that a 400 kyr eccentricity cycle is well preserved and the existence of a 100 kyr eccentricity in the red clay sequence on the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau suggests that eccentricity plays a vital role in Pliocene climate evolution. Paleomonsoon evolution is reconstructed and divided into three intervals (5.2-4.5 Ma, 4.5-3.6 Ma and 3.6-2.58 Ma). The earliest stage indicates that summer and winter monsoon cycles may rapidly alter, whereas the middle stage reflects an intensification of winter monsoon and aridification in Asia, and the youngest stage is characterized by relatively intensified summer monsoon. This study demonstrates that cyclostratigraphy can greatly assist magnetostratigraphy in dating the red clay sequences, and implies that many published age models for the red clay sequences should likely be re-assessed where possible. An evaluation of the monsoon system and climate change in eastern Asia might prominently benefit from this approach.

  20. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a…

  1. Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease

    PubMed Central

    Potter, Paul K.; Bowl, Michael R.; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E.; Simon, Michelle M.; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V.; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E.; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H.; Foster, Russell G.; Jackson, Ian J.; Peirson, Stuart N.; Thakker, Rajesh V.; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M.; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D. M.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss. PMID:27534441

  2. Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease.

    PubMed

    Potter, Paul K; Bowl, Michael R; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E; Simon, Michelle M; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H; Foster, Russell G; Jackson, Ian J; Peirson, Stuart N; Thakker, Rajesh V; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D M

    2016-01-01

    Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss. PMID:27534441

  3. The problem of calibration: A possible way to overcome the drawbacks of age models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goswami, B.; Heitzig, J.; Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    Constructing a meaningful age model from a set of radiocarbon age-depth measurements made on a palaeoclimatic archive is the crucial backbone of all proxy-based research carried out thereafter. Significant progress in the development of Monte Carlo based interpolation techniques and Bayesian methods has been made recently, targeting the uncertainties of radiocarbon dating, which then reflect meaningfully as time domain errors in the proxy vs. time relationship. However, one primary limitation of these approaches is the debatable assumption of Gaussianity of the errors in calibrated ages as calibration often results in highly irregular and non-trivial probability distributions of the age for every measurement. Here, we present a method that circumvents this limitation by focussing on the construction of the proxy vs. time relationship rather than emphasising on the estimation of an age-depth relation as the intermediary step. Our method is based on a simple analysis of the involved probabilistic uncertainties and the use of (preferably non-parametric) regression methods that give an estimate of the uncertainty of regression at every point as well. With the appropriate use of Bayes' Theorem we then provide a regression-based estimator for the proxy measurements and compute the respective distribution parameters (such as mean and variance) that quantify the uncertainties of the proxy in the time domain. We verify this method with the help of an artificial data set involving the accumulation history of a simulated core and noisy radiocarbon dating and proxy measurements made on it. To our best knowledge, this is the first method that manages to overcome the fundamental problem of irregular distributions induced by calibration of radiocarbon ages. We feel that this approach shall enable us to look at the problem of dating uncertainties in a new light and open up newer possibilities for studying not only speleothem proxies but, more generally, from other palaeoclimatic

  4. Sensitivity analysis of the age-structured malaria transmission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addawe, Joel M.; Lope, Jose Ernie C.

    2012-09-01

    We propose an age-structured malaria transmission model and perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission. We subdivide the human population into two: preschool humans (below 5 years) and the rest of the human population (above 5 years). We then consider two sets of baseline parameters, one for areas of high transmission and the other for areas of low transmission. We compute the sensitivity indices of the reproductive number and the endemic equilibrium point with respect to the two sets of baseline parameters. Our simulations reveal that in areas of either high or low transmission, the reproductive number is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito on the rest of the human population. For areas of low transmission, we find that the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito. For the rest of the human population it is most sensitive to the rate of acquiring temporary immunity. In areas of high transmission, the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans and the rest of the human population are both most sensitive to the birth rate of humans. This suggests that strategies that target the mosquito biting rate on pre-school humans and those that shortens the time in acquiring immunity can be successful in preventing the spread of malaria.

  5. Investigating lower stratospheric model transport: Lagrangian calculations of mean age and age spectra in the GCM ECHAM4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reithmeier, Christian; Sausen, Robert; Grewe, Volker

    2008-02-01

    The Lagrangian scheme ATTILA is used to calculate age spectra and the mean age of air in the general circulation model ECHAM4. The advantage of the Lagrangian method is that temporal variation in transport is taken into account and that beyond transport times the actual transport pathways can be investigated. We found a strong seasonal cycle in mean age and age spectra, especially at high latitudes. When plotting polar age spectra against time, it can clearly be seen that the edge of the polar vortex acts as an efficient transport barrier and that exchange with extra-polar air takes place only for a short period of approximately two months after the polar vortex has broken down. Compared to observations the mean age is reproduced satisfactorily below approximately 20 km. Above that level however, the mean age is underestimated, especially at high latitudes. Furthermore, the observed sharp meridional gradient is located too far polewards in the model, which indicates that the subtropical transport barrier is too weak. There is a distinct variation in the shape of the age spectra with latitude. At low latitudes the age spectra consist of one single peak, whereas at higher latitudes secondary peaks appear, which are one year apart and whose positions in the spectrum are independent of the location. At polar latitudes there are even several peaks of approximately equal size. We explain these peaks with two superposing processes. First, the seasonal cycle of the upward mass flux at the tropical tropopause produces a single peak age distribution. And second, at polar latitudes, the temporal evolution of the polar vortex allows mixing of polar and subtropical air only once a year, which results in a superposition of these single peak age distributions. A final investigation of the transport pathways gave indications for predominant routes from the tropics to high latitudes resulting in altitude dependent meridional transport, however, more detailed studies of 3D

  6. Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

    2013-01-01

    Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

  7. Cardiac autonomic changes in middle-aged women: identification based on principal component analysis.

    PubMed

    Trevizani, Gabriela A; Nasario-Junior, Olivassé; Benchimol-Barbosa, Paulo R; Silva, Lilian P; Nadal, Jurandir

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the application of the principal component analysis (PCA) technique on power spectral density function (PSD) of consecutive normal RR intervals (iRR) aiming at assessing its ability to discriminate healthy women according to age groups: young group (20-25 year-old) and middle-aged group (40-60 year-old). Thirty healthy and non-smoking female volunteers were investigated (13 young [mean ± SD (median): 22·8 ± 0·9 years (23·0)] and 17 Middle-aged [51·7 ± 5·3 years (50·0)]). The iRR sequence was collected during ten minutes, breathing spontaneously, in supine position and in the morning, using a heart rate monitor. After selecting an iRR segment (5 min) with the smallest variance, an auto regressive model was used to estimate the PSD. Five principal component coefficients, extracted from PSD signals, were retained for analysis according to the Mahalanobis distance classifier. A threshold established by logistic regression allowed the separation of the groups with 100% specificity, 83·2% sensitivity and 93·3% total accuracy. The PCA appropriately classified two groups of women in relation to age (young and Middle-aged) based on PSD analysis of consecutive normal RR intervals. PMID:25532598

  8. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V. A.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-04-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a drawing-based model of the solar system. The results show that children in the target age group are capable of creating a drawing-based model of the solar system and can use it to show the situations in which eclipses occur. Structural equation modeling predicting post-test knowledge scores based on learners' pre-test knowledge scores, the quality of their drawings and motivational aspects yielded some evidence that such drawing contributes to learning. Consequences for using modeling with young children are considered.

  9. 20 CFR 416.806 - Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age. 416.806 Section 416.806 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... based on documentary evidence of age. Where documentary evidence of age recorded at least 3 years...

  10. 20 CFR 416.806 - Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age. 416.806 Section 416.806 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... based on documentary evidence of age. Where documentary evidence of age recorded at least 3 years...

  11. 20 CFR 416.806 - Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age. 416.806 Section 416.806 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... based on documentary evidence of age. Where documentary evidence of age recorded at least 3 years...

  12. 20 CFR 416.806 - Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age. 416.806 Section 416.806 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... based on documentary evidence of age. Where documentary evidence of age recorded at least 3 years...

  13. 20 CFR 416.806 - Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Expedited adjudication based on documentary evidence of age. 416.806 Section 416.806 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... based on documentary evidence of age. Where documentary evidence of age recorded at least 3 years...

  14. Development of a distance-based interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes.

    PubMed

    Axe, M J; Snyder-Mackler, L; Konin, J G; Strube, M J

    1996-01-01

    We developed a distance-based interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes (9 to 12 years) to be used in training and rehabilitation. The timing and repetition parameters were developed from data collected during 400 innings of organized baseball during a single season, and short toss distance from Little League rules for field dimensions. There were 1022 boys from organized baseball teams in the four studies. Maximal distance and speed measurements were recorded for 853 boys. We developed a mathematical model from these data to predict maximal throwing distance from maximal throwing speed. This model was then tested on a second sample of 114 players. We compared the predicted distance with the actual maximal throwing distance; the correlation coefficient was 0.92. Forty players aged 9 to 12 participated in a study to assess degradation of speed and distance. The average variability of the speed was small (< 5 mph), but the variability in distance was large (22.4 feet). Fifteen boys then threw the entire throwing program as designed. These results show that healthy young athletes can be expected to be able to throw the predicted value of this practical progressive interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes. The appropriate program can be assigned from age and known preinjury pitch speed. PMID:8883678

  15. Aging Through Hierarchical Coalescence in the East Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faggionato, A.; Martinelli, F.; Roberto, C.; Toninelli, C.

    2012-01-01

    We rigorously analyze the low temperature non-equilibrium dynamics of the East model, a special example of a one dimensional oriented kinetically constrained particle model, when the initial distribution is different from the reversible one and for times much smaller than the global relaxation time. This setting has been intensively studied in the physics literature to analyze the slow dynamics which follows a sudden quench from the liquid to the glass phase. In the limit of zero temperature (i.e. a vanishing density of vacancies) and for initial distributions such that the vacancies form a renewal process, we prove that the density of vacancies, the persistence function and the two-time autocorrelation function behave as staircase functions with several plateaux. Furthermore the two-time autocorrelation function displays an aging behavior. We also provide a sharp description of the statistics of the domain length as a function of time, a domain being the interval between two consecutive vacancies. When the initial renewal process has finite mean, our results confirm (and generalize) previous findings of the physicists for the restricted case of a product Bernoulli measure. However we show that a different behavior appears when the initial domain distribution is in the attraction domain of a α-stable law. All the above results actually follow from a more general result which says that the low temperature dynamics of the East model is very well described by that of a certain hierarchical coalescence process, a probabilistic object which can be viewed as a hierarchical sequence of suitably linked coalescence processes and whose asymptotic behavior has been recently studied in Faggionato et al. (Universality in one dimensional hierarchical 1059 coalescence processes. Preprint, 2011).

  16. Model-based machine learning

    PubMed Central

    Bishop, Christopher M.

    2013-01-01

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications. PMID:23277612

  17. Model-based machine learning.

    PubMed

    Bishop, Christopher M

    2013-02-13

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications. PMID:23277612

  18. Early-age hydration and volume change of calcium sulfoaluminate cement-based binders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaunsali, Piyush

    Shrinkage cracking is a predominant deterioration mechanism in structures with high surface-to-volume ratio. One way to allay shrinkage-induced stresses is to use calcium sulfoaluminate (CSA) cement whose early-age expansion in restrained condition induces compressive stress that can be utilized to counter the tensile stresses due to shrinkage. In addition to enhancing the resistance against shrinkage cracking, CSA cement also has lower carbon footprint than that of Portland cement. This dissertation aims at improving the understanding of early-age volume change of CSA cement-based binders. For the first time, interaction between mineral admixtures (Class F fly ash, Class C fly ash, and silica fume) and OPC-CSA binder was studied. Various physico-chemical factors such as the hydration of ye'elimite (main component in CSA cement), amount of ettringite (the main phase responsible for expansion in CSA cement), supersaturation with respect to ettringite in cement pore solution, total pore volume, and material stiffness were monitored to examine early-age expansion characteristics. This research validated the crystallization stress theory by showing the presence of higher supersaturation level of ettringite, and therefore, higher crystallization stress in CSA cement-based binders. Supersaturation with respect to ettringite was found to increase with CSA dosage and external supply of gypsum. Mineral admixtures (MA) altered the expansion characteristics in OPC-CSA-MA binders with fixed CSA cement. This study reports that fly ash (FA) behaves differently depending on its phase composition. The Class C FA-based binder (OPC-CSA-CFA) ceased expanding beyond two days unlike other OPC-CSA-MA binders. Three factors were found to govern expansion of CSA cement-based binders: 1) volume fraction of ettringite in given pore volume, 2) saturation level of ettringite, and 3) dynamic modulus. Various models were utilized to estimate the macroscopic tensile stress in CSA cement-based

  19. Experimental characterization and modeling of isothermal and nonisothermal physical aging in glassy polymer films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Yunlong

    This dissertation focuses on nonisothermal physical aging of polymers from both experimental and theoretical aspects. The study concentrates on pure polymers rather than fiber-reinforced composites; this step removes several complicating factors to simplify the study. It is anticipated that the findings of this work can then be applied to composite materials applications. The physical aging tests in this work are performed using a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA). The viscoelastic response of glassy polymers under various loading and thermal histories are observed as stress-strain data at a series of time points. The first stage of the experimental work involves the characterization of the isothermal physical aging behavior of two advanced thermoplastics. The second stage conducts tests on the same materials with varying thermal histories and with long-term test duration. This forms the basis to assess and modify a nonisothermal physical aging model (KAHR-ate model). Based on the experimental findings, the KAHR-ate model has been revised by new correlations between aging shift factors and volume response; this revised model performed well in predicting the nonisothermal physical aging behavior of glassy polymers. In the work on isothermal physical aging, short-term creep and stress relaxation tests were performed at several temperatures within 15-35°C below the glass transition temperature (Tg) at various aging times, using the short-term test method established by Struik. Stress and strain levels were such that the materials remained in the linear viscoelastic regime. These curves were then shifted together to determine momentary master curves and shift rates. In order to validate the obtained isothermal physical aging behavior, the results of creep and stress relaxation testing were compared and shown to be consistent with one another using appropriate interconversion of the viscoelastic material functions. Time-temperature superposition of the master curves

  20. Preparing the Workforce for Healthy Aging Programs: The Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP) Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frank, Janet C.; Altpeter, Mary; Damron-Rodriguez, JoAnn; Driggers, Joann; Lachenmayr, Susan; Manning, Colleen; Martinez, Dana M.; Price, Rachel M.; Robinson, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Current public health and aging service agency personnel have little training in gerontology, and virtually no training in evidence-based health promotion and disease management programs for older adults. These programs are rapidly becoming the future of our community-based long-term care support system. The purpose of this project was to develop…

  1. A comparison between voxel-based cortical thickness and voxel-based morphometry in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Hutton, Chloe; Draganski, Bogdan; Ashburner, John; Weiskopf, Nikolaus

    2009-11-01

    The morphology of cortical grey matter is commonly assessed using T1-weighted MRI together with automated computerised methods such as voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and cortical thickness measures. In the presented study we investigate how grey matter changes identified using voxel-based cortical thickness (VBCT) measures compare with local grey matter volume changes identified using VBM. We use data from a healthy aging population to perform the comparison, focusing on brain regions where age-related changes have been observed in previous studies. Our results show that overall, in healthy aging, VBCT and VBM yield very consistent results but VBCT provides a more sensitive measure of age-associated decline in grey matter compared with VBM. Our findings suggest that while VBCT selectively investigates cortical thickness, VBM provides a mixed measure of grey matter including cortical surface area or cortical folding, as well as cortical thickness. We therefore propose that used together, these techniques can separate the underlying grey matter changes, highlighting the utility of combining these complementary methods. PMID:19559801

  2. Characterizing cognitive aging in humans with links to animal models

    PubMed Central

    Alexander, Gene E.; Ryan, Lee; Bowers, Dawn; Foster, Thomas C.; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Geldmacher, David S.; Glisky, Elizabeth L.

    2012-01-01

    With the population of older adults expected to grow rapidly over the next two decades, it has become increasingly important to advance research efforts to elucidate the mechanisms associated with cognitive aging, with the ultimate goal of developing effective interventions and prevention therapies. Although there has been a vast research literature on the use of cognitive tests to evaluate the effects of aging and age-related neurodegenerative disease, the need for a set of standardized measures to characterize the cognitive profiles specific to healthy aging has been widely recognized. Here we present a review of selected methods and approaches that have been applied in human research studies to evaluate the effects of aging on cognition, including executive function, memory, processing speed, language, and visuospatial function. The effects of healthy aging on each of these cognitive domains are discussed with examples from cognitive/experimental and clinical/neuropsychological approaches. Further, we consider those measures that have clear conceptual and methodological links to tasks currently in use for non-human animal studies of aging, as well as those that have the potential for translation to animal aging research. Having a complementary set of measures to assess the cognitive profiles of healthy aging across species provides a unique opportunity to enhance research efforts for cross-sectional, longitudinal, and intervention studies of cognitive aging. Taking a cross-species, translational approach will help to advance cognitive aging research, leading to a greater understanding of associated neurobiological mechanisms with the potential for developing effective interventions and prevention therapies for age-related cognitive decline. PMID:22988439

  3. Ages estimated from a diffusion equation model for scarp degradation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Watson, K.E.N.

    1983-01-01

    The diffusion equation derived from the continuity equation for hillslopes is applied to scarp erosion in unconsolidated materials. Solutions to this equation allow direct calculation of the product of the rate coefficient and the age of the scarp from measurements of scarp morphology. Where the rate coefficient can be estimated or can be derived from scarps of known age, this method allows direct calculation of unknown ages of scarps.

  4. U.S. Telecommunications and Trade Policies: The Need for an Effective Information Age Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tirman, W. Robert

    This paper examines the need for telecommunications and international trade policies in the Information Age and presents a model for developing such policies. The first of seven sections discusses the need for an Information Age Model, and the technological changes that are giving rise to increasingly integrated Information Age networks are…

  5. Four-vessel occlusion model using aged male Wistar rats: a reliable model to resolve the discrepancy related to age in cerebral ischemia research.

    PubMed

    Ancer-Rodríguez, Jesús; Villarreal-Silva, Eliud Enrique; Salazar-Ybarra, Rodolfo Amador; Quiroga-García, Oscar; Rodríguez-Rocha, Humberto; García-García, Aracely; Morales-Avalos, Rodolfo; Morales-Gómez, Jesús Alberto; Quiroga-Garza, Alejandro; Saucedo-Cárdenas, Odila; Xu, Zao Cheng; Elizondo-Omaña, Rodrigo Enrique; Martínez-Ponce-de-León, Angel Raymundo; Guzmán-López, Santos

    2016-06-01

    Animal models of cerebral ischemia have typically been established and performed using young animals, even though cerebral ischemia (CI) affects primarily elderly patients. This situation represents a discrepancy that complicates the translation of novel therapeutic strategies for CI. Models of transient global CI using aged animals have demonstrated an apparent neuroprotective effect on CA1 hippocampal neurons; however, this effect is not completely understood. Our study used a model in which young (3-6 months) and aged (18-21 months) male Wistar rats were subjected to 15 min of transient global CI using the four-vessel occlusion (4 VO) model. We determined that the 4 VO model can be performed on aged rats with a slight increase in mortality rate. In aged rats, the morphological damage was completely established by the 4th day after reperfusion, displaying no difference from their younger counterparts. These results demonstrated the lack of a neuroprotective effect of aging on CA1 hippocampal neurons in aged male Wistar rats. This study determined and characterized the morphological damage to the CA1 area after 15 min of 4 VO in aged male Wistar rats, validating the use of this model in CI and aging research. PMID:25966656

  6. Sketch-based geologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rood, M. P.; Jackson, M.; Hampson, G.; Brazil, E. V.; de Carvalho, F.; Coda, C.; Sousa, M. C.; Zhang, Z.; Geiger, S.

    2015-12-01

    Two-dimensional (2D) maps and cross-sections, and 3D conceptual models, are fundamental tools for understanding, communicating and modeling geology. Yet geologists lack dedicated and intuitive tools that allow rapid creation of such figures and models. Standard drawing packages produce only 2D figures that are not suitable for quantitative analysis. Geologic modeling packages can produce 3D models and are widely used in the groundwater and petroleum communities, but are often slow and non-intuitive to use, requiring the creation of a grid early in the modeling workflow and the use of geostatistical methods to populate the grid blocks with geologic information. We present an alternative approach to rapidly create figures and models using sketch-based interface and modelling (SBIM). We leverage methods widely adopted in other industries to prototype complex geometries and designs. The SBIM tool contains built-in geologic rules that constrain how sketched lines and surfaces interact. These rules are based on the logic of superposition and cross-cutting relationships that follow from rock-forming processes, including deposition, deformation, intrusion and modification by diagenesis or metamorphism. The approach allows rapid creation of multiple, geologically realistic, figures and models in 2D and 3D using a simple, intuitive interface. The user can sketch in plan- or cross-section view. Geologic rules are used to extrapolate sketched lines in real time to create 3D surfaces. Quantitative analysis can be carried our directly on the models. Alternatively, they can be output as simple figures or imported directly into other modeling tools. The software runs on a tablet PC and can be used in a variety of settings including the office, classroom and field. The speed and ease of use of SBIM enables multiple interpretations to be developed from limited data, uncertainty to be readily appraised, and figures and models to be rapidly updated to incorporate new data or concepts.

  7. Predicting Commitment in Adult and Traditional-Age Students: Applying Rusbult's Investment Model to the Study of Retention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cini, Marie A.; Fritz, Janie M. Harden

    Rusbult's Investment Model, a theoretical model of commitment based on notions of social exchange and interdependence theory, was used to predict college commitment in traditional-age and adult college students. A questionnaire assessing rewards, costs, investments, alternatives, and commitment to college was administered to 216 traditional-age…

  8. The CITRA Research-Practice Consensus-Workshop Model: Exploring a New Method of Research Translation in Aging

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sabir, Myra; Breckman, Risa; Meador, Rhoda; Wethington, Elaine; Reid, Carrington; Pillemer, Karl

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: On the basis of the experience of an extensive community-based research partnership in New York City, we developed an innovative process for bridging the gap between aging-related research and practice, using a consensus-workshop model. Design and Methods: We adapted the traditional scientific consensus-workshop model to include…

  9. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a simplified electrochemical and thermal model for Li-ion batteries aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edouard, C.; Petit, M.; Forgez, C.; Bernard, J.; Revel, R.

    2016-09-01

    In this work, a simplified electrochemical and thermal model that can predict both physicochemical and aging behavior of Li-ion batteries is studied. A sensitivity analysis of all its physical parameters is performed in order to find out their influence on the model output based on simulations under various conditions. The results gave hints on whether a parameter needs particular attention when measured or identified and on the conditions (e.g. temperature, discharge rate) under which it is the most sensitive. A specific simulation profile is designed for parameters involved in aging equations in order to determine their sensitivity. Finally, a step-wise method is followed to limit the influence of parameter values when identifying some of them, according to their relative sensitivity from the study. This sensitivity analysis and the subsequent step-wise identification method show very good results, such as a better fitting of the simulated cell voltage with experimental data.

  10. A statistical model for the study of U-Nb aging (u)

    SciTech Connect

    Hemphill, Geralyn M; Hackenberg, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    This study was undertaken to model the aging response of U-Nb alloys in order to quantify property and lifetime predictions and uncertainties, in response to concerns that aging during long-term stockpile storage may change the microstructure and properties of U-6 wt%Nb alloy components in ways adversely affecting performance. U-6Nb has many desirable properties, but is a complex material because of its gross compositional inhomogeneity (its chemical banding spans 4-8 wt%), its metastable starting microstructure, and the fact that a variety of external factors such as temperature, stress, and gaseous species can cause aging through multiple mechanisms. The most significant aging mechanism identified in earlier studies [2007hac2] is age hardening, phenomenologically defined as increasing hardness and strength and decreasing ductility observed as a function of increasing aging time-at-temperature. The scientific fundamentals of age hardening at temperatures relevant to U-6Nb material processing ({le}200 C) and stockpile storage ({le}60 C) remain unresolved in spite of significant experimental efforts [2007hac2, 2009cla]. Equally problematic is the lack of a well-established U-6Nb component failure criterion. These limitations make the most desirable approach of property response and lifetime prediction - that based on fundamental physics - unattainable at the present time. Therefore, a semi-empirical approach was taken to model the phenomenological property evolution during aging. This enabled lifetime estimates to be made from an assumed failure criterion (derived from a manufacturing acceptance criterion) couched in terms of an age-sensitive property, namely quasi-static tensile elongation to failure. The predictions of this and other age-sensitive properties are also useful for U-6Nb component surveillance studies. Drawing upon a large body of artificial aging data obtained from nonbanded (chemically homogeneous) U-5.6Nb and U-7.7Nb material [2007hacJ ] over 100

  11. Continuous Age-Structured Model for Bovine Tuberculosis in African buffalo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anguelov, R.; Kojouharov, H.

    2009-10-01

    The paper deals with a model of the spread of bovine tuberculosis in the buffalo population in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. The model uses continuous age structure and it is formulated in terms of partial differential equations using eight epidemiological classes (compartments). More precisely, the age density for each class at time t satisfies a one way wave equation, where the age is the space variable. The continuous age model discussed here is derived from a 2006 age groups model by P. C. Cross and W. M. Getz.

  12. Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Worthey, Guy

    1994-01-01

    The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors

  13. Calendar ageing analysis of a LiFePO4/graphite cell with dynamic model validations: Towards realistic lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarasketa-Zabala, E.; Gandiaga, I.; Rodriguez-Martinez, L. M.; Villarreal, I.

    2014-12-01

    The present study aims at establishing a methodology for a comprehensive calendar ageing predictive model development, focusing specially on validation procedures. A LFP-based Li-ion cell performance degradation was analysed under different temperature and SOC storage conditions. Five static calendar ageing conditions were used for understanding the ageing trends and modelling the dominant ageing phenomena (SEI growth and the resulting loss of active lithium). The validation process included an additional test under other constant operating conditions (static validation) and other four tests under non-constant impact factors operating schemes within the same experiment (dynamic validation), in response to battery stress conditions in real applications. Model predictions are in good agreement with experimental results as the residuals are always below 1% for experiments run for 300-650 days. The model is able to predict dynamic behaviour close to real operating conditions and the level of accuracy corresponds to a root-mean-square error of 0.93%.

  14. A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, P. B.; Plummer, L. N.; Böhlke, J. K.; Shapiro, S. D.; Hinkle, S. R.

    2011-06-01

    An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

  15. A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McMahon, P.B.; Plummer, L.N.; Böhlke, J.K.; Shapiro, S.D.; Hinkle, S.R.

    2011-01-01

    An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

  16. Generative FDG-PET and MRI model of aging and disease progression in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Dukart, Juergen; Kherif, Ferath; Mueller, Karsten; Adaszewski, Stanislaw; Schroeter, Matthias L; Frackowiak, Richard S J; Draganski, Bogdan

    2013-04-01

    The failure of current strategies to provide an explanation for controversial findings on the pattern of pathophysiological changes in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) motivates the necessity to develop new integrative approaches based on multi-modal neuroimaging data that captures various aspects of disease pathology. Previous studies using [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) report controversial results about time-line, spatial extent and magnitude of glucose hypometabolism and atrophy in AD that depend on clinical and demographic characteristics of the studied populations. Here, we provide and validate at a group level a generative anatomical model of glucose hypo-metabolism and atrophy progression in AD based on FDG-PET and sMRI data of 80 patients and 79 healthy controls to describe expected age and symptom severity related changes in AD relative to a baseline provided by healthy aging. We demonstrate a high level of anatomical accuracy for both modalities yielding strongly age- and symptom-severity- dependant glucose hypometabolism in temporal, parietal and precuneal regions and a more extensive network of atrophy in hippocampal, temporal, parietal, occipital and posterior caudate regions. The model suggests greater and more consistent changes in FDG-PET compared to sMRI at earlier and the inversion of this pattern at more advanced AD stages. Our model describes, integrates and predicts characteristic patterns of AD related pathology, uncontaminated by normal age effects, derived from multi-modal data. It further provides an integrative explanation for findings suggesting a dissociation between early- and late-onset AD. The generative model offers a basis for further development of individualized biomarkers allowing accurate early diagnosis and treatment evaluation. PMID:23592957

  17. Towards a unified and interdisciplinary model of ageing.

    PubMed

    Jameson, C W

    2004-01-01

    Researchers currently disagree about the appropriate biomarkers to monitor when measuring the ageing process. The major problem is identifying symptoms that are an end in and of themselves, from symptoms that are tied directly to the root cause, or causes, of ageing. This is most likely the reason that numerous, diverse and plausible theories for ageing co-exist. When young and old nuclei are exchanged between cells, the age of the resulting cell correlated with the nucleus. This suggests a large role of the nucleus as the target of ageing, although the sources of ageing may originate externally. There are three processes that occur when eukaryotes age. They are: (1) a progressive and patterned alteration of the structure of chromosomes after young adulthood has been reached, (2) a progressive and patterned malfunction of the degradation systems, and (3) age-altered post-translational modifications of proteins. A change in any one of these processes often causes a ripple effect that affects the other two processes. This paper begins by stating that the above three processes are the appropriate biomarkers of ageing. These three processes are coordinated with one another under normal physiological conditions. For example, proteasomes and their subunits have been found to regulate excision repair, transcription, and the turnover of nuclear/cytoplasmic receptors. The degradation system is also responsible for the removal of oxidized histones and other factors, which influence chromosome structure. Regulatory post-translational modifications at the histone level include methylation, phosphorylation, and acetylation. In addition, the above three processes undergo age related changes. Some of these modifications represent valid responses by the cell, but many do not. The effect of these age-altered macromolecules is perverse and unpredictable. For example, the cell's age-compromised degradation allows the accumulation of signaling complexes, which no longer match the

  18. Constructing an index of physical fitness age for Japanese elderly based on 7-year longitudinal data: sex differences in estimated physical fitness age.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Misaka; Mizuta, Chinatsu; Yamada, Yosuke; Okayama, Yasuko; Nakamura, Eitaro

    2012-02-01

    A standardized method for assessing the physical fitness of elderly adults has not yet been established. In this study, we developed an index of physical fitness age (fitness age score, FAS) for older Japanese adults and investigated sex differences based on the estimated FAS. Healthy elderly adults (52 men, 70 women) who underwent physical fitness tests once yearly for 7 years between 2002 and 2008 were included in this study. The age of the participants at the beginning of this study ranged from 60.0 to 83.0 years. The physical fitness tests consisted of 13 items to measure balance, agility, flexibility, muscle strength, and endurance. Three criteria were used to evaluate fitness markers of aging: (1) significant cross-sectional correlation with age; (2) significant longitudinal change with age consistent with the cross-sectional correlation; and (3) significant stability of individual differences. We developed an equation to assess individual FAS values using the first principal component derived from principal component analysis. Five candidate fitness markers of aging (10-m walking time, functional reach, one leg stand with eyes open, vertical jump and grip strength) were selected from the 13 physical fitness tests. Individual FAS was predicted from these five fitness markers using a principal component model. Individual FAS showed high longitudinal stability for age-related changes. This investigation of the longitudinal changes of individual FAS revealed that women had relatively lower physical fitness compared with men, but their rate of physical fitness aging was slower than that of men. PMID:21424789

  19. Age and gender based biomechanical shape and size analysis of the pediatric brain.

    PubMed

    Danelson, Kerry A; Geer, Carol P; Stitzel, Joel D; Slice, Dennis E; Takhounts, Erik G

    2008-11-01

    Injuries caused by motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are the leading cause of head injury and death for children in the United States. This study aims to describe the shape and size (morphologic) changes of the cerebrum, cerebellum, brainstem, and ventricles of the pediatric occupant to better predict injury and assess how these changes affect finite element model (FEM) response. To quantify morphologic differences in the brain, a Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) with a sliding landmark method was conducted to isolate morphologic changes using magnetic resonance images of 63 normal subjects. This type of geometric morphometric analysis was selected for its ability to identify homologous landmarks on structures with few true landmarks and isolate the shape and size of the individuals studied. From the resulting landmark coordinates, the shape and size changes were regressed against age to develop a model describing morphologic changes in the pediatric brain as a function of age. The most statistically significant shape change was in the cerebrum with p-values of 0.00346 for males and 0.00829 for females. The age-based model explains over 80% of the variation in size in the cerebrum. Using size and shape models, affine transformations were applied to the SIMon FEM to determine differences in response given differences in size and size plus shape. The geometric centroid of the elements exceeding 15% strain was calculated and compared to the geometric centroid of the entire structure. Given the same Haversine pulse, the centroid location, a metric for the spatial distribution of the elements exceeding an injury threshold, varied based on which transformation was applied to the model. To assess the overall response of the model, three injury metrics were examined to determine the magnitude of the metrics each element sustained and the overall volume of elements that experienced that value. These results suggested that the overall response of the model was driven by the

  20. The Effects of a School-Based Atopy Care Program for School-Aged Children.

    PubMed

    Ryu, Hosihn; Lee, Youngjin

    2015-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a school-based atopy care program (SACP) for children with atopic dermatitis (AD). The program is administered by health teachers who are also school nurses. The study compared groups using a pre- and post-test design. Participants were children with AD and their parents (98 dyads; 32 in the test group and 66 in the control group) sampled from four elementary schools in Seoul. After completing the SACP, parents in the test group had significantly increased knowledge of AD (p = .04) and a greater sense of parental efficacy (p = .02) when compared with the control group. This study derived guidelines that elementary health teachers can use in practice for school-aged children with AD. We concluded that there is sufficient evidence of effectiveness for the SACP to be used as a model for chronic disease management in school-aged children. PMID:24942774

  1. PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PB-PK) models attempt to provide both a realistic anatomic description of the animal to which a drug or toxic chemical has been administered and a biologically accurate representation of the physiological pathways for chemical storage, metab...

  2. Searching for faces of different ages: Evidence for an experienced-based own-age detection advantage in adults.

    PubMed

    Macchi Cassia, Viola; Proietti, Valentina; Gava, Lucia; Bricolo, Emanuela

    2015-08-01

    Previous studies have shown that attention deployment in visual search tasks is modulated by face race and emotional expression, with a search asymmetry in favor of those faces that are less efficiently discriminated and recognized at the individual level (i.e., other-race faces and angry faces). Face age is another dimension affecting how faces are remembered, as it has been widely reported that young adults show significant deficits in recognizing other-age faces. By comparing adults' search efficiency for own- and other-age faces in a visual search task in which face age was the target feature we explored whether the mirror pattern of detection and recognition effects found for race biases generalizes to age biases, and whether search efficiency for adult and nonadult faces is modulated by experience accumulated with nonadult faces. Search efficiency was greater for adult faces than for infant (Experiment 1) or child faces (Experiment 2) in adults with limited experience with infants or children, whereas there was no sign of search asymmetry in preschool teachers who have had extensive recent experience with children (Experiment 2). Results indicate that the influence of age on attention deployment parallels the effects that this face attribute has on face recognition, and that both effects are experience-based. PMID:25984588

  3. Exceptional Brain Aging in a Rural Population-Based Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaye, Jeffrey; Michael, Yvonne; Calvert, James; Leahy, Marjorie; Crawford, Debbie; Kramer, Patricia

    2009-01-01

    Context: The 2000 US Census identified 50,454 Americans over the age of 100. Increased longevity is only of benefit if accompanied by maintenance of independence and quality of life. Little is known about the prevalence of dementia and other disabling conditions among rural centenarians although this information is important to clinicians caring…

  4. Brain-Based Teaching in the Digital Age

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sprenger, Marilee

    2010-01-01

    In the digital age, your students have the ways, means, and speed to gather any information they want. But they need your guidance more than ever. Discover how digital technology is actually changing your students' brains. Learn why this creates new obstacles for teachers, but also opens up potential new pathways for learning. You will understand…

  5. Development of a precise and accurate age-depth model based on 40Ar/39Ar dating of volcanic material in the ANDRILL (1B) drill core, Southern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, J. I.; McIntosh, W. C.; Dunbar, N. W.

    2012-10-01

    High precision 40Ar/39Ar dates on a variety of volcanic materials from the AND-1B drill core provide pinning points for defining the chronostratigraphy for the core. The volcanic materials dated include 1) felsic and basaltic tephra, 2) interior of a ~ 3 m thick intermediate submarine lava flow, and 3) felsic and basaltic volcanic clasts. In the upper 600 m of the core, two felsic tephra, two basaltic tephra and the intermediate laval flow yield precise and depositional ages, with further maximum age constraints from volcanic clasts. Below 600 m in the core, tephric intervals are significantly altered and maximum age constraints only are available from volcanic clasts. The ages for eight stratigraphic intervals are 1) 17.17-17.18 mbsf, basaltic clast (maximum depositional age 0.310 ± 0.039 Ma, all errors quoted at 2σ), 2) 52.80-52.82 mbsf, three basaltic clasts (maximum depositional age 0.726 ± 0.052 Ma), 3) 85.27-85.87 mbsf felsic tephra (1.014 ± 0.008 Ma), 4) ~ 112-145 mbsf sequence of basaltic tephra (1.633 ± 0.057 to 1.683 ± 0.055 Ma), 5) 480.97-481.96 mbsf pumice-rich mudstone (4.800 ± 0.076 Ma), 6) 646.30-649.34 mbsf intermediate lava flow (6.48 ± 0.13 Ma), 7) 822.78 mbsf kaersutite phenocrysts from volcanic clasts (maximum depositional age 8.53 ± 0.53 Ma) and 8) ~ 1280 mbsf, three volcanic clasts (maximum depositional age 13.57 ± 0.13 Ma). Minimum average sediment accumulation rates or 102 and 87 m/Ma for the upper and lower 650 m of core, respectively were calculated using the 40Ar/39Ar analyses. The volcanic material recovered from AND-1B also reveals a general northward progression of volcanism in Southern McMurdo Sound.

  6. Urban groundwater age modeling under unconfined condition - Impact of underground structures on groundwater age: Evidence of a piston effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, underground structures are shown to have a major influence on the groundwater mean age distribution described as a dispersive piston effect. Urban underground development does not occur without impacts on subsoil resources. In particular, groundwater resources can be vulnerable and generate disturbances when this space is exploited. Groundwater age spatial distribution data are fundamental for resource management as it can provide operational sustainability indicators. However, the application of groundwater age modeling is neglected regarding the potential effect of underground structures in urban areas. A three dimensional modeling approach was conducted to quantify the impact of two underground structures: (1) an impervious structure and (2) a draining structure. Both structures are shown to cause significant mixing processes occurring between shallow and deeper aquifers. The design technique used for draining structures is shown to have the greatest impact, generating a decrease in mean age of more than 80% under the structure. Groundwater age modeling is shown to be relevant for highlighting the role played by underground structures in advective-dispersive flows in urban areas.

  7. Radiocarbon Based Ages and Growth Rates: Hawaiian Deep Sea Corals

    SciTech Connect

    Roark, E B; Guilderson, T P; Dunbar, R B; Ingram, B L

    2006-01-13

    The radial growth rates and ages of three different groups of Hawaiian deep-sea 'corals' were determined using radiocarbon measurements. Specimens of Corallium secundum, Gerardia sp., and Leiopathes glaberrima, were collected from 450 {+-} 40 m at the Makapuu deep-sea coral bed using a submersible (PISCES V). Specimens of Antipathes dichotoma were collected at 50 m off Lahaina, Maui. The primary source of carbon to the calcitic C. secundum skeleton is in situ dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Using bomb {sup 14}C time markers we calculate radial growth rates of {approx} 170 {micro}m y{sup -1} and ages of 68-75 years on specimens as tall as 28 cm of C. secundum. Gerardia sp., A. dichotoma, and L. glaberrima have proteinaceous skeletons and labile particulate organic carbon (POC) is their primary source of architectural carbon. Using {sup 14}C we calculate a radial growth rate of 15 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of 807 {+-} 30 years for a live collected Gerardia sp., showing that these organisms are extremely long lived. Inner and outer {sup 14}C measurements on four sub-fossil Gerardia spp. samples produce similar growth rate estimates (range 14-45 {micro}m y{sup -1}) and ages (range 450-2742 years) as observed for the live collected sample. Similarly, with a growth rate of < 10 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of {approx}2377 years, L. glaberrima at the Makapuu coral bed, is also extremely long lived. In contrast, the shallow-collected A. dichotoma samples yield growth rates ranging from 130 to 1,140 {micro}m y{sup -1}. These results show that Hawaiian deep-sea corals grow more slowly and are older than previously thought.

  8. Models for preclinical studies in aging-related disorders: One is not for all

    PubMed Central

    Santulli, Gaetano; Borras, Consuelo; Bousquet, Jean; Calzà, Laura; Cano, Antonio; Illario, Maddalena; Franceschi, Claudio; Liotta, Giuseppe; Maggio, Marcello; Molloy, William D.; Montuori, Nunzia; O’Caoimh, Rónán; Orfila, Francesc; Rauter, Amelia P.; Santoro, Aurelia; Iaccarino, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Preclinical studies are essentially based on animal models of a particular disease. The primary purpose of preclinical efficacy studies is to support generalization of treatment–effect relationships to human subjects. Researchers aim to demonstrate a causal relationship between an investigational agent and a disease-related phenotype in such models. Numerous factors can muddle reliable inferences about such cause-effect relationships, including biased outcome assessment due to experimenter expectations. For instance, responses in a particular inbred mouse might be specific to the strain, limiting generalizability. Selecting well-justified and widely acknowledged model systems represents the best start in designing preclinical studies, especially to overcome any potential bias related to the model itself. This is particularly true in the research that focuses on aging, which carries unique challenges, mainly attributable to the fact that our already long lifespan makes designing experiments that use people as subjects extremely difficult and largely impractical. PMID:27042427

  9. 29 CFR 1625.7 - Differentiations based on reasonable factors other than age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... COMMISSION AGE DISCRIMINATION IN EMPLOYMENT ACT Interpretations § 1625.7 Differentiations based on reasonable... and avoid discrimination; (iii) The extent to which the employer limited supervisors' discretion...

  10. 29 CFR 1625.7 - Differentiations based on reasonable factors other than age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... COMMISSION AGE DISCRIMINATION IN EMPLOYMENT ACT Interpretations § 1625.7 Differentiations based on reasonable... and avoid discrimination; (iii) The extent to which the employer limited supervisors' discretion...

  11. 29 CFR 1625.7 - Differentiations based on reasonable factors other than age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... COMMISSION AGE DISCRIMINATION IN EMPLOYMENT ACT Interpretations § 1625.7 Differentiations based on reasonable... and avoid discrimination; (iii) The extent to which the employer limited supervisors' discretion...

  12. Mechanical properties of silorane-based and methacrylate-based composite resins after artificial aging.

    PubMed

    de Castro, Denise Tornavoi; Lepri, César Penazzo; Valente, Mariana Lima da Costa; dos Reis, Andréa Cândido

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the compressive strength of a silorane-based composite resin (Filtek P90) to that of conventional composite resins (Charisma, Filtek Z250, Fill Magic, and NT Premium) before and after accelerated artificial aging (AAA). For each composite resin, 16 cylindrical specimens were prepared and divided into 2 groups. One group underwent analysis of compressive strength in a universal testing machine 24 hours after preparation, and the other was subjected first to 192 hours of AAA and then the compressive strength test. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance, followed by the Tukey HSD post hoc test (α = 0.05). Some statistically significant differences in compressive strength were found among the commercial brands (P < 0.001). The conventional composite resin Fill Magic presented the best performance before (P < 0.05) and after AAA (P < 0.05). Values for compressive strength of the silorane-based composite were among the lowest obtained, both before and after aging. Comparison of each material before and after AAA revealed that the aging process did not influence the compressive strength of the tested resins (P = 0.785). PMID:26943090

  13. Designing a Programming-Based Approach for Modelling Scientific Phenomena

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Gordon; Hoyles, Celia; Noss, Richard

    2005-01-01

    We describe an iteratively designed sequence of activities involving the modelling of one-dimensional collisions between moving objects based on programming in ToonTalk. Students aged 13-14 years in two settings (London and Cyprus) investigated a number of collision situations, classified into six classes based on the relative velocities and…

  14. Modelling aging effects on a thermal cycling absorption process column

    SciTech Connect

    Laquerbe, C.; Contreras, S.; Demoment, J.

    2008-07-15

    Palladium coated on alumina is used in hydrogen separation systems operated at CEA/Valduc, and more particularly in Thermal Cycling Absorption Process columns. With such materials, tritium decay is known to induce aging effects which have direct side effects on hydrogen isotopes absorption isotherms. Furthermore in a TCAP column, aging occurs in an heterogeneous way. The possible impacts of these intrinsic material evolutions on the separation performances are investigated here through a numerical approach. (authors)

  15. A new age model for the early-middle Miocene in the North Alpine Foreland Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichenbacher, Bettina; Krijgsman, Wout; Pippèrr, Martina; Sant, Karin; Kirscher, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    The establishment of high-resolution age models for sedimentary successions is crucial for numerous research questions in the geosciences and related disciplines. Such models provide an absolute chronology that permits precise dating of depositional episodes and related processes such as mountain uplift or climate change. Recently, our work in the Miocene sediments of the North Alpine Foreland Basin (NAFB) has revealed a significantly younger age (16.6 Myr) for sediments that were thought to have been deposited 18 Myr ago. This implies that a fundamentally revised new age model is needed for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB (20 to 15-Myr). Our new data also indicate that previously published reconstructions of early-middle Miocene palaeogeography, sedimentation dynamics, mountain uplift and climate change in the NAFB all require a critical review and revision. Further, the time-span addressed is of special interest, since it encompasses the onset of a global warming phase. However, it appears that a fundamentally revised new age model for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB can only be achieved based on a 500 m deep drilling in the NAFB for which we currently seek collaboration partners to develop a grant application to the International Continental Deep Drilling Program (ICDP). Reference: Reichenbacher, B., W. Krijgsman, Y. Lataster, M. Pippèrr, C. G. C. Van Baak, L. Chang, D. Kälin, J. Jost, G. Doppler, D. Jung, J. Prieto, H. Abdul Aziz, M. Böhme, J. Garnish, U. Kirscher, and V. Bachtadse. 2013. A new magnetostratigraphic framework for the Lower Miocene (Burdigalian/Ottnangian, Karpatian) in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. Swiss Journal of Geosciences 106:309-334.

  16. A Kinetics Study on Electrical Resistivity Transition of In Situ Polymer Aging Sensors Based on Carbon-Black-Filled Epoxy Conductive Polymeric Composites (CPCs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Qizhen; Nyugen, Mark T.; Moon, Kyoung-Sik; Watkins, Ken; Morato, Lilian T.; Wong, Ching Ping

    2013-06-01

    Sensors based on carbon-black-filled bisphenol A-type epoxy conductive polymeric composites (CPCs) have been prepared and applied to monitor thermal oxidation aging of polymeric materials. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) is applied to characterize weight loss of epoxy resin in the aging process. By using a mathematical model based on the Boltzmann equation, a relationship between the electrical resistivity of the sensors based on epoxy/carbon black composites and aging time is established, making it possible to monitor and estimate the aging status of polymeric components in situ based on a fast and convenient electrical resistance measurement.

  17. Validation of an empirical damage model for aging and in vivo injury of the murine patellar tendon.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Mark R; Dunkman, Andrew A; Reuther, Katherine E; Kumar, Akash; Pathmanathan, Lydia; Beason, David P; Birk, David E; Soslowsky, Louis J

    2013-04-01

    While useful models have been proposed to predict the mechanical impact of damage in tendon and other soft tissues, the applicability of these models for describing in vivo injury and age-related degeneration has not been investigated. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop and validate a simple damage model to predict mechanical alterations in mouse patellar tendons after aging, injury, or healing. To characterize baseline properties, uninjured controls at age 150 days were cyclically loaded across three strain levels and five frequencies. For comparison, damage was induced in mature (120 day-old) mice through either injury or aging. Injured mice were sacrificed at three or six weeks after surgery, while aged mice were sacrificed at either 300 or 570 days old. Changes in mechanical properties (relative to baseline) in the three week post-injury group were assessed and used to develop an empirical damage model based on a simple damage parameter related to the equilibrium stress at a prescribed strain (6%). From the derived model, the viscoelastic properties of the 300 day-old, 570 day-old, and six week post-injury groups were accurately predicted. Across testing conditions, nearly all correlations between predicted and measured parameters were statistically significant and coefficients of determination ranged from R² = 0.25 to 0.97. Results suggest that the proposed damage model could exploit simple in vivo mechanical measurements to predict how an injured or aged tendon will respond to complex physiological loading regimens. PMID:24231900

  18. Tritium-based age/streamflow relationships and catchment function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, M. K.; Morgenstern, U.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding runoff generation is important for management of freshwater systems. Determining transit time distributions (TTDs) of streamwaters and how they change with flow gives information on the flowpaths and water storages in catchments - fundamental for understanding the responses of streams to stressors such as pollution, land use change and climate change. This work uses tritium measurements on single samples to determine TTDs and how they change with flow. Such use of tritium is only practical so far in the Southern Hemisphere, because of its much-lower input of bomb-tritium in the 1960s. Another advantage of tritium is that it reveals the full spectrum of ages present in streams, whereas oxygen-18 or chloride variations only show younger ages (i.e. truncated TTDs). Case studies are presented for two New Zealand catchments, both with volcanic ash substrates. The first (Toenepi) is a dairy catchment near Hamilton, which shows well-constrained power law relationships between mean transit time (MTT) and flow, and between silica concentration and flow. Baseflow MTTs vary from 2.5 to 157 years. The second (Tutaeuaua) is a pastoral farming catchment near Taupo. Results for nested catchments along the stream also show power law relationships for both MTT and silica with flow. Baseflow MTTs vary from 1 to 11 years. Although the MTT data could be represented approximately by straight lines in log-log plots, hysteresis effects due to catchment wetness variations did disturb the relationships. Having TTDs from individual samples focusses attention on the nature of the water storages supplying the stream at the times of sampling. The flow record contains information on catchment function, which can enhance the value of the age data, provided such information can be satisfactorily interpreted. A new baseflow estimation method is used to determine the slow storage (aka groundwater) fraction in the stream. The age data is showing that slow storages have mean ages of

  19. Aging and Neurodegeneration: A Tangle of Models and Mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Chakrabarti, Sasanka; Mohanakumar, Kochupurackal P

    2016-03-01

    The research on aging and age-related diseases, especially the neurodegenerative diseases, is on the fast track. However, the results have so far not been translated to actual benefit for the patients in terms of treatment or diagnosis of age-related degenerative diseases including those of the CNS. As far as the prevention of the cognitive decline during non-pathological aging is concerned, there is nothing much to offer other than calorie restriction and physical exercise. Needless to say, the benefits are not up to our expectations. However, over the years at the experimental level it has been possible to identify several cellular and molecular mechanisms that are intricately associated with aging in general and neurodegenerative diseases in particular. These include oxidative stress and altered redox-signaling, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, proteotoxicity and altered gene expressions. These inter-dependent pathways mediate cellular senescence and often culminate in programmed cell death like apoptosis and autophagy, and in the context of brain these changes are manifested clinically as cognitive decline and pathologically as neurodegeneration. This special issue provides the readers with glimpses of this complex scenario from different angles primarily in the context of brain and also attempts to identify the potential drug targets against neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:27114843

  20. Aging and Neurodegeneration: A Tangle of Models and Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Chakrabarti, Sasanka; Mohanakumar, Kochupurackal P.

    2016-01-01

    The research on aging and age-related diseases, especially the neurodegenerative diseases, is on the fast track. However, the results have so far not been translated to actual benefit for the patients in terms of treatment or diagnosis of age-related degenerative diseases including those of the CNS. As far as the prevention of the cognitive decline during non-pathological aging is concerned, there is nothing much to offer other than calorie restriction and physical exercise. Needless to say, the benefits are not up to our expectations. However, over the years at the experimental level it has been possible to identify several cellular and molecular mechanisms that are intricately associated with aging in general and neurodegenerative diseases in particular. These include oxidative stress and altered redox-signaling, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, proteotoxicity and altered gene expressions. These inter-dependent pathways mediate cellular senescence and often culminate in programmed cell death like apoptosis and autophagy, and in the context of brain these changes are manifested clinically as cognitive decline and pathologically as neurodegeneration. This special issue provides the readers with glimpses of this complex scenario from different angles primarily in the context of brain and also attempts to identify the potential drug targets against neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:27114843

  1. Abnormal glutamate release in aged BTBR mouse model of autism

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Hongen; Ding, Caiyun; Jin, Guorong; Yin, Haizhen; Liu, Jianrong; Hu, Fengyun

    2015-01-01

    Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by abnormal reciprocal social interactions, communication deficits, and repetitive behaviors with restricted interests. Most of the available research on autism is focused on children and young adults and little is known about the pathological alternation of autism in older adults. In order to investigate the neurobiological alternation of autism in old age stage, we compared the morphology and synaptic function of excitatory synapses between the BTBR mice with low level sociability and B6 mice with high level sociability. The results revealed that the number of excitatory synapse colocalized with pre- and post-synaptic marker was not different between aged BTBR and B6 mice. The aged BTBR mice had a normal structure of dendritic spine and the expression of Shank3 protein in the brain as well as that in B6 mice. The baseline and KCl-evoked glutamate release from the cortical synaptoneurosome in aged BTBR mice was lower than that in aged B6 mice. Overall, the data indicate that there is a link between disturbances of the glutamate transmission and autism. These findings provide new evidences for the hypothesis of excitation/inhibition imbalance in autism. Further work is required to determine the cause of this putative abnormality. PMID:26617779

  2. Model-based tomographic reconstruction

    DOEpatents

    Chambers, David H.; Lehman, Sean K.; Goodman, Dennis M.

    2012-06-26

    A model-based approach to estimating wall positions for a building is developed and tested using simulated data. It borrows two techniques from geophysical inversion problems, layer stripping and stacking, and combines them with a model-based estimation algorithm that minimizes the mean-square error between the predicted signal and the data. The technique is designed to process multiple looks from an ultra wideband radar array. The processed signal is time-gated and each section processed to detect the presence of a wall and estimate its position, thickness, and material parameters. The floor plan of a building is determined by moving the array around the outside of the building. In this paper we describe how the stacking and layer stripping algorithms are combined and show the results from a simple numerical example of three parallel walls.

  3. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    PubMed

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed. PMID:25794687

  4. Thermal analysis of pentaerythritol tetranitrate and development of a powder aging model

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Geoffrey W; Sandstrom, Mary M; Giambra, Anna M; Archuleta, Jose G; Monroe, Deirde C

    2009-01-01

    We have applied a range of different physical and thermal analysis techniques to characterize the thermal evolution of the specific surface area of pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) powders. Using atomic force microscopy we have determined that the mass transfer mechanism leading to powder coarsening is probably sublimation and redeposition of PETN. Using thermogravimetric analysis we have measured vapor pressures of PETN powders whose aging will be simulated in future work. For one specific powder we have constructed an empirical model of the coarsening that is fit to specific surface area measurements at 60 C to 70 C to provide predictive capability of that powder's aging. Modulated differential scanning calorimetry and mass spectroscopy measurements highlight some of the thermal behavior of the powders and suggest that homologue-based eutectics and impurities are localized in the powder particles.

  5. Do the Instructors Differ in Their Behavioral Intention to Adopt E-Learning Based on Age, Gender, and Internet Experience?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Altawallbeh, Manal; Thiam, Wun; Alshourah, Sultan; Fong, Soon Fook

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this research is to examine if there are differences of the age, gender, and internet experience on behavioural intention to adopt e-learning of the instructors in Jordanian universities. The paper takes a social, and technical approach in its investigation by using a research model based on the ANOVA and t-test Analysis to identify if…

  6. Model-based safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Carlson, D.D.; Jones, T.R.

    1998-04-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performs systems analysis of high risk, high consequence systems. In particular, Sandia is responsible for the engineering of nuclear weapons, exclusive of the explosive physics package. In meeting this responsibility, Sandia has developed fundamental approaches to safety and a process for evaluating safety based on modeling and simulation. These approaches provide confidence in the safety of our nuclear weapons. Similar concepts may be applied to improve the safety of other high consequence systems.

  7. NMR and molecular modeling: application to wine ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saucier, C.; Pianet, I.; Laguerre, M.; Glories, Y.

    1998-02-01

    Red wine contains polyphenols called tannins which are very important for its taste and longevity. These polymers consist in repeating units of catechin and its epimer epicatechin. During ageing, slow condensation reactions take place which lead to new chemical structures. Among the possible reactions, we have focused our attention on acetaldehyde cross-linking. Catechin was used as a model for the production of polymers with acetaldehyde. Two reaction product fractions have been isolated by liquid chromatography. Mass measurement indicated that these fractions contain dimers. NMR (1D and 2D) and molecular modelling were then used to study the structure and conformations of these products. The first product consist in a pure dimer with the two catechin moieties connected with an ethyl bridge on the carbon 6 and 8. The second fraction was a mixture of two dimers (50/50). NMR measurements showed that it could be two symmetrical dimers involving the same carbon for each catechin moiety (6 or8). Le vin rouge contient des polyphénols appelés tanins qui sont très importants pour son goût et sa longévité. Il s'agit principalement de polymères de catéchine et d'épicatéchine. Durant le vieillissement du vin, des réactions de condensation interviennent lentement et conduisent à de nouvelles structures. Parmi les réactions possibles, nous avons plus spécialement étudié la polymérisation par pontage avec l'éthanal. La catéchine a été utilisée comme modèle de tannin et mise en présence d'éthanal en milieu acide proche du vin. Deux fractions de produits de réaction ont été isolées par chromatographie liquide. La spectrométrie de masse a révélé la présence de dimères. La RMN (1D et 2D) et la modélisation moléculaire ont ensuite été utilisées pour déterminer la structure et la conformation de ces produits. La première fraction a été identifiée comme étant un dimère de deux unités catéchines reliées par un pont éthyle par leur

  8. Early-age concrete strength estimation based on piezoelectric sensor using artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Junkyeong; Kim, Ju-Won; Park, Seunghee

    2014-04-01

    Recently, novel methods to estimate the strength of concrete have been reported based on numerous NDT methods. Especially, electro-mechanical impedance technique using piezoelectric sensors are studied to estimate the strength of concrete. However, the previous research works could not provide the general information about the early-age strength important to manage the quality of concrete and/or the construction process. In order to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, the electro-mechanical impedance method and the artificial neural network(ANN) is utilized in this study. The electro-mechanical impedance varies with the mechanical properties of host structures. Because the strength development is most influential factor among the change of mechanical properties at early-age of curing, it is possible to estimate the strength of concrete by analyzing the change of E/M impedance. The strength of concrete is a complex function of several factors like mix proportion, temperature, elasticity, etc. Because of this, it is hard to mathematically derive equations about strength of concrete. The ANN can provide the solution about early-age strength of concrete without mathematical equations. To verify the proposed approach, a series of experimental studies are conducted. The impedance signals are measured using embedded piezoelectric sensors during curing process and the resonant frequency of impedance is extracted as a strength feature. The strength of concrete is calculated by regression of strength development curve obtained by destructive test. Then ANN model is established by trained using experimental results. Finally the ANN model is verified using impedance data of other sensors.

  9. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. PMID:26165657

  10. Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Smit, Mikaela; Brinkman, Kees; Geerlings, Suzanne; Smit, Colette; Thyagarajan, Kalyani; Sighem, Ard van; de Wolf, Frank; Hallett, Timothy B

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future. Methods We constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs—including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies—and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030. Findings Our model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug–drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens. Interpretation The profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based

  11. Methodology for the Incorporation of Passive Component Aging Modeling into the RAVEN/ RELAP-7 Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Mandelli, Diego; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua; Alfonsi, Andrea; Askin Guler; Tunc Aldemir

    2014-11-01

    Passive system, structure and components (SSCs) will degrade over their operation life and this degradation may cause to reduction in the safety margins of a nuclear power plant. In traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using the event-tree/fault-tree methodology, passive SSC failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data and the true state of a specific plant is not reflected realistically. To address aging effects of passive SSCs in the traditional PRA methodology [1] does consider physics based models that account for the operating conditions in the plant, however, [1] does not include effects of surveillance/inspection. This paper represents an overall methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive components into the RAVEN/RELAP-7 environment which provides a framework for performing dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties (including those associated with maintenance activities) in a consistent phenomenological and probabilistic framework and is often needed when there is complex process/hardware/software/firmware/ human interaction [2]. Dynamic PRA has gained attention recently due to difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics based models and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems. RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control Environment) [3] is a software package under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as an online control logic driver and post-processing tool. It is coupled to the plant transient code RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) also currently under development at INL [3], as well as RELAP 5 [4]. The overall methodology aims to: • Address multiple aging mechanisms involving large number of components in a computational feasible manner where sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation

  12. A computational model associating learning process, word attributes, and age of acquisition.

    PubMed

    Hidaka, Shohei

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new model-based approach linking word learning to the age of acquisition (AoA) of words; a new computational tool for understanding the relationships among word learning processes, psychological attributes, and word AoAs as measures of vocabulary growth. The computational model developed describes the distinct statistical relationships between three theoretical factors underpinning word learning and AoA distributions. Simply put, this model formulates how different learning processes, characterized by change in learning rate over time and/or by the number of exposures required to acquire a word, likely result in different AoA distributions depending on word type. We tested the model in three respects. The first analysis showed that the proposed model accounts for empirical AoA distributions better than a standard alternative. The second analysis demonstrated that the estimated learning parameters well predicted the psychological attributes, such as frequency and imageability, of words. The third analysis illustrated that the developmental trend predicted by our estimated learning parameters was consistent with relevant findings in the developmental literature on word learning in children. We further discuss the theoretical implications of our model-based approach. PMID:24223699

  13. An Age-Graded Model for Career Development Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuckman, Bruce W.

    1974-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a framework by which educators interested in stimulating career development can choose the learning experiences most likely to have payoffs for different age youth. Eight stages of child development are described with career development themes suggested for each stage along with sample activities. (Author)

  14. Aging and Predicting Inferences: A Diffusion Model Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKoon, Gail; Ratcliff, Roger

    2013-01-01

    In the domain of discourse processing, it has been claimed that older adults (60-0-year-olds) are less likely to encode and remember some kinds of information from texts than young adults. The experiment described here shows that they do make a particular kind of inference to the same extent that college-age adults do. The inferences examined were…

  15. An Attachment Model of Sibling Helping Behavior in Old Age.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cicirelli, Victor G.

    Sibling relationships are not only maintained throughout life in most cases, but assume considerable importance in old age. Siblings provide psychological support for each other as well as more tangible forms of helping and caregiving. In order to investigate variables leading to sibling help in the area of psychological support, a path model…

  16. Modeling the Mechanical Consequences of Age-Related Trabecular Bone Loss by XFEM Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Ruoxun; Zhang, Xianbin; Liu, Jun; Jia, Zhengbin; Zhu, Dong

    2016-01-01

    The elderly are more likely to suffer from fracture because of age-related trabecular bone loss. Different bone loss locations and patterns have different effects on bone mechanical properties. Extended finite element method (XFEM) can simulate fracture process and was suited to investigate the effects of bone loss on trabecular bone. Age-related bone loss is indicated by trabecular thinning and loss and may occur at low-strain locations or other random sites. Accordingly, several ideal normal and aged trabecular bone models were created based on different bone loss locations and patterns; then, fracture processes from crack initiation to complete failure of these models were observed by XFEM; finally, the effects of different locations and patterns on trabecular bone were compared. Results indicated that bone loss occurring at low-strain locations was more detrimental to trabecular bone than that occurring at other random sites; meanwhile, the decrease in bone strength caused by trabecular loss was higher than that caused by trabecular thinning, and the effects of vertical trabecular loss on mechanical properties were more severe than horizontal trabecular loss. This study provided a numerical method to simulate trabecular bone fracture and distinguished different effects of the possible occurrence of bone loss locations and patterns on trabecular bone. PMID:27403206

  17. Modeling the Mechanical Consequences of Age-Related Trabecular Bone Loss by XFEM Simulation.

    PubMed

    Fan, Ruoxun; Gong, He; Zhang, Xianbin; Liu, Jun; Jia, Zhengbin; Zhu, Dong

    2016-01-01

    The elderly are more likely to suffer from fracture because of age-related trabecular bone loss. Different bone loss locations and patterns have different effects on bone mechanical properties. Extended finite element method (XFEM) can simulate fracture process and was suited to investigate the effects of bone loss on trabecular bone. Age-related bone loss is indicated by trabecular thinning and loss and may occur at low-strain locations or other random sites. Accordingly, several ideal normal and aged trabecular bone models were created based on different bone loss locations and patterns; then, fracture processes from crack initiation to complete failure of these models were observed by XFEM; finally, the effects of different locations and patterns on trabecular bone were compared. Results indicated that bone loss occurring at low-strain locations was more detrimental to trabecular bone than that occurring at other random sites; meanwhile, the decrease in bone strength caused by trabecular loss was higher than that caused by trabecular thinning, and the effects of vertical trabecular loss on mechanical properties were more severe than horizontal trabecular loss. This study provided a numerical method to simulate trabecular bone fracture and distinguished different effects of the possible occurrence of bone loss locations and patterns on trabecular bone. PMID:27403206

  18. Bias in the reporting of sex and age in biomedical research on mouse models.

    PubMed

    Flórez-Vargas, Oscar; Brass, Andy; Karystianis, George; Bramhall, Michael; Stevens, Robert; Cruickshank, Sheena; Nenadic, Goran

    2016-01-01

    In animal-based biomedical research, both the sex and the age of the animals studied affect disease phenotypes by modifying their susceptibility, presentation and response to treatment. The accurate reporting of experimental methods and materials, including the sex and age of animals, is essential so that other researchers can build on the results of such studies. Here we use text mining to study 15,311 research papers in which mice were the focus of the study. We find that the percentage of papers reporting the sex and age of mice has increased over the past two decades: however, only about 50% of the papers published in 2014 reported these two variables. We also compared the quality of reporting in six preclinical research areas and found evidence for different levels of sex-bias in these areas: the strongest male-bias was observed in cardiovascular disease models and the strongest female-bias was found in infectious disease models. These results demonstrate the ability of text mining to contribute to the ongoing debate about the reproducibility of research, and confirm the need to continue efforts to improve the reporting of experimental methods and materials. PMID:26939790

  19. Bias in the reporting of sex and age in biomedical research on mouse models

    PubMed Central

    Flórez-Vargas, Oscar; Brass, Andy; Karystianis, George; Bramhall, Michael; Stevens, Robert; Cruickshank, Sheena; Nenadic, Goran

    2016-01-01

    In animal-based biomedical research, both the sex and the age of the animals studied affect disease phenotypes by modifying their susceptibility, presentation and response to treatment. The accurate reporting of experimental methods and materials, including the sex and age of animals, is essential so that other researchers can build on the results of such studies. Here we use text mining to study 15,311 research papers in which mice were the focus of the study. We find that the percentage of papers reporting the sex and age of mice has increased over the past two decades: however, only about 50% of the papers published in 2014 reported these two variables. We also compared the quality of reporting in six preclinical research areas and found evidence for different levels of sex-bias in these areas: the strongest male-bias was observed in cardiovascular disease models and the strongest female-bias was found in infectious disease models. These results demonstrate the ability of text mining to contribute to the ongoing debate about the reproducibility of research, and confirm the need to continue efforts to improve the reporting of experimental methods and materials. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13615.001 PMID:26939790

  20. Phospholipase A2 – nexus of aging, oxidative stress, neuronal excitability, and functional decline of the aging nervous system? Insights from a snail model system of neuronal aging and age-associated memory impairment

    PubMed Central

    Hermann, Petra M.; Watson, Shawn N.; Wildering, Willem C.

    2014-01-01

    The aging brain undergoes a range of changes varying from subtle structural and physiological changes causing only minor functional decline under healthy normal aging conditions, to severe cognitive or neurological impairment associated with extensive loss of neurons and circuits due to age-associated neurodegenerative disease conditions. Understanding how biological aging processes affect the brain and how they contribute to the onset and progress of age-associated neurodegenerative diseases is a core research goal in contemporary neuroscience. This review focuses on the idea that changes in intrinsic neuronal electrical excitability associated with (per)oxidation of membrane lipids and activation of phospholipase A2 (PLA2) enzymes are an important mechanism of learning and memory failure under normal aging conditions. Specifically, in the context of this special issue on the biology of cognitive aging we portray the opportunities offered by the identifiable neurons and behaviorally characterized neural circuits of the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis in neuronal aging research and recapitulate recent insights indicating a key role of lipid peroxidation-induced PLA2 as instruments of aging, oxidative stress and inflammation in age-associated neuronal and memory impairment in this model system. The findings are discussed in view of accumulating evidence suggesting involvement of analogous mechanisms in the etiology of age-associated dysfunction and disease of the human and mammalian brain. PMID:25538730

  1. All age-depth models are wrong, but are getting better

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trachsel, Mathias; Chipperfield, Joseph D.; Telford, Richard J.

    2015-04-01

    Construction of accurate age-depth relationships and realistic assessment of their uncertainties is one of the fundamental prerequisites for comparing and correlating Late Quaternary stratigraphic proxy records. Four widely used age-depth modelling routines: i) clam, ii) OxCal, iii) Bacon, and iv) Bchron were tested using radiocarbon dates simulated from varved sediment stratigraphies. All methods produced average age-depth models that were close to the true varve age, but the uncertainty estimation differed considerably among models. Age uncertainties were underestimated by clam, whereas age uncertainties produced by Bchron were too large. Using OxCal and Bacon, setting of model specific parameters influenced the estimated uncertainties, which varied from too large to too small. Still, compared to the study by Telford et al. (2004), the use of Bayesian age-depth models greatly improved on the assessment of uncertainties of age-depth models. Reference: Telford et al. (2004), All age-depth models are wrong: but how badly? Quaternary Science Reviews, 23,1-5.

  2. Crowdsourcing Based 3d Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somogyi, A.; Barsi, A.; Molnar, B.; Lovas, T.

    2016-06-01

    Web-based photo albums that support organizing and viewing the users' images are widely used. These services provide a convenient solution for storing, editing and sharing images. In many cases, the users attach geotags to the images in order to enable using them e.g. in location based applications on social networks. Our paper discusses a procedure that collects open access images from a site frequently visited by tourists. Geotagged pictures showing the image of a sight or tourist attraction are selected and processed in photogrammetric processing software that produces the 3D model of the captured object. For the particular investigation we selected three attractions in Budapest. To assess the geometrical accuracy, we used laser scanner and DSLR as well as smart phone photography to derive reference values to enable verifying the spatial model obtained from the web-album images. The investigation shows how detailed and accurate models could be derived applying photogrammetric processing software, simply by using images of the community, without visiting the site.

  3. Age-Related Changes in Predictive Capacity Versus Internal Model Adaptability: Electrophysiological Evidence that Individual Differences Outweigh Effects of Age.

    PubMed

    Bornkessel-Schlesewsky, Ina; Philipp, Markus; Alday, Phillip M; Kretzschmar, Franziska; Grewe, Tanja; Gumpert, Maike; Schumacher, Petra B; Schlesewsky, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Hierarchical predictive coding has been identified as a possible unifying principle of brain function, and recent work in cognitive neuroscience has examined how it may be affected by age-related changes. Using language comprehension as a test case, the present study aimed to dissociate age-related changes in prediction generation versus internal model adaptation following a prediction error. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were measured in a group of older adults (60-81 years; n = 40) as they read sentences of the form "The opposite of black is white/yellow/nice." Replicating previous work in young adults, results showed a target-related P300 for the expected antonym ("white"; an effect assumed to reflect a prediction match), and a graded N400 effect for the two incongruous conditions (i.e. a larger N400 amplitude for the incongruous continuation not related to the expected antonym, "nice," versus the incongruous associated condition, "yellow"). These effects were followed by a late positivity, again with a larger amplitude in the incongruous non-associated versus incongruous associated condition. Analyses using linear mixed-effects models showed that the target-related P300 effect and the N400 effect for the incongruous non-associated condition were both modulated by age, thus suggesting that age-related changes affect both prediction generation and model adaptation. However, effects of age were outweighed by the interindividual variability of ERP responses, as reflected in the high proportion of variance captured by the inclusion of by-condition random slopes for participants and items. We thus argue that - at both a neurophysiological and a functional level - the notion of general differences between language processing in young and older adults may only be of limited use, and that future research should seek to better understand the causes of interindividual variability in the ERP responses of older adults and its relation to cognitive performance. PMID

  4. Magneto- and cyclostratigraphy in the red clay sequence: New age model and paleoclimatic implication for the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anwar, Taslima; Kravchinsky, Vadim A.; Zhang, Rui

    2015-10-01

    The Chinese Loess Plateau red clay sequences display a continuous alternation of sedimentary cycles that represent recurrent climatic fluctuations from 2.58 Ma to the Miocene. Deciphering such a record can provide us with vital information on global and Asian climatic variations. Lack of fossils and failure of absolute dating methods made magnetostratigraphy a leading method to build age models for the red clay sequences. Here we test the magnetostratigraphic age model against cyclostratigraphy. For this purpose we investigate the climate cyclicity recorded in magnetic susceptibility and sedimentary grain size in a red clay section previously dated 11 Myr old with magnetostratigraphy alone. Magnetostratigraphy dating based on only visual correlation could potentially lead to erroneous age model. In this study the correlation is executed through the iteration procedure until it is supported by cyclostratigraphy; i.e., Milankovitch cycles are resolved in the best possible manner. Our new age model provides an age of 5.2 Ma for the Shilou profile. Based on the new age model, wavelet analysis reveals the well-preserved 400 kyr and possible 100 kyr eccentricity cycles on the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau. Further, paleomonsoon evolution during 2.58-5.2 Ma is reconstructed and divided into three intervals (2.58-3.6 Ma, 3.6-4.5 Ma, and 4.5-5.2 Ma). The upper part, the youngest stage, is characterized by a relatively intensified summer monsoon, the middle stage reflects an intensification of the winter monsoon and aridification in Asia, and the earliest stage indicates that summer and winter monsoon cycles may have rapidly altered. The use of cyclostratigraphy along with magnetostratigraphy gives us an effective method of dating red clay sequences, and our results imply that many presently published age models for the red clay deposits should be perhaps re-evaluated.

  5. Radiation aging of stockpile and space-based microelectronics.

    SciTech Connect

    Hembree, Charles Edward; Hjalmarson, Harold Paul

    2004-02-01

    This report describes an LDRD-supported experimental-theoretical collaboration on the enhanced low-dose-rate sensitivity (ELDRS) problem. The experimental work led to a method for elimination of ELDRS, and the theoretical work led to a suite of bimolecular mechanisms that explain ELDRS and is in good agreement with various ELDRS experiments. The model shows that the radiation effects are linear in the limit of very low dose rates. In this limit, the regime of most concern, the model provides a good estimate of the worst-case effects of low dose rate ionizing radiation.

  6. The Statewide Training Model for a Continuing Education Certificate in Gerontology in Religion and Aging.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Barbara, Ed.; Payne, Barbara, Ed.

    This training model is a guide for developing statewide training for a continuing education certificate in gerontology in religion and aging. It is designed for use by gerontology educators, state office of aging executives, and leaders of religious judicatories. Section I begins with a description of the training model and covers where and how to…

  7. Muscle wasting in myotonic dystrophies: a model of premature aging

    PubMed Central

    Mateos-Aierdi, Alba Judith; Goicoechea, Maria; Aiastui, Ana; Fernández-Torrón, Roberto; Garcia-Puga, Mikel; Matheu, Ander; López de Munain, Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1 or Steinert’s disease) and type 2 (DM2) are multisystem disorders of genetic origin. Progressive muscular weakness, atrophy and myotonia are the most prominent neuromuscular features of these diseases, while other clinical manifestations such as cardiomyopathy, insulin resistance and cataracts are also common. From a clinical perspective, most DM symptoms are interpreted as a result of an accelerated aging (cataracts, muscular weakness and atrophy, cognitive decline, metabolic dysfunction, etc.), including an increased risk of developing tumors. From this point of view, DM1 could be described as a progeroid syndrome since a notable age-dependent dysfunction of all systems occurs. The underlying molecular disorder in DM1 consists of the existence of a pathological (CTG) triplet expansion in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of the Dystrophia Myotonica Protein Kinase (DMPK) gene, whereas (CCTG)n repeats in the first intron of the Cellular Nucleic acid Binding Protein/Zinc Finger Protein 9 (CNBP/ZNF9) gene cause DM2. The expansions are transcribed into (CUG)n and (CCUG)n-containing RNA, respectively, which form secondary structures and sequester RNA-binding proteins, such as the splicing factor muscleblind-like protein (MBNL), forming nuclear aggregates known as foci. Other splicing factors, such as CUGBP, are also disrupted, leading to a spliceopathy of a large number of downstream genes linked to the clinical features of these diseases. Skeletal muscle regeneration relies on muscle progenitor cells, known as satellite cells, which are activated after muscle damage, and which proliferate and differentiate to muscle cells, thus regenerating the damaged tissue. Satellite cell dysfunction seems to be a common feature of both age-dependent muscle degeneration (sarcopenia) and muscle wasting in DM and other muscle degenerative diseases. This review aims to describe the cellular, molecular and macrostructural processes involved in the

  8. Glassy Transition and Aging in a Model Without Disorder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franz, Silvio; Hertz, John

    1995-03-01

    We study the off-equilibrium relaxational dynamics of the Amit-Roginsky φ3 field theory, for which the mode coupling approximation is exact. We show that complex phenomena such as aging and ergodicity breaking are present at low temperature, similar to what is found in long range spin glasses. This is an example of how the mode coupling theory of the structural glass transition can be generalized to off-equilibrium situations.

  9. Construction of mass-age curves for the continental crust: An empirical model and an example from the western US

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Depaolo, D. J.; Schubert, G. S.; Linn, Ann

    1988-01-01

    The methodology of determining crustal mass-age curves is discussed. Problems in doing this include determination of model ages and accounting for mixing of materials of different ages during crust forming processes. These difficulties can be overcome with some reasonable assumptions and estimates of rock volumes based on areal proportions. This technique was used to construct a reasonably well constrained mass-age curve for the southwestern U.S. based on isotopic measurements on over 100 samples. The results imply that the crust in this area grew episodically at 2.8, 1.8, and 0.1 Ga. It is estimated that it would take on the order of 10000 to 100000 individual Sm-Nd isotopic measurements to carry out a similar exercise for continental crust world wide.

  10. UTAUT Model for Blended Learning: The Role of Gender and Age in the Intention to Use Webinars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khechine, Hager; Lakhal, Sawsen; Pascot, Daniel; Bytha, Alphonse

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the paper was to determine the factors that explain the acceptance of a webinar system (Elluminate) in a blended learning course by students. The effects of gender and age as moderating variables were also studied. Our hypotheses were based on the unified theory of acceptance and use of the technology model, which was proven to be…

  11. Model-based Utility Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbard, Bill

    2012-05-01

    Orseau and Ring, as well as Dewey, have recently described problems, including self-delusion, with the behavior of agents using various definitions of utility functions. An agent's utility function is defined in terms of the agent's history of interactions with its environment. This paper argues, via two examples, that the behavior problems can be avoided by formulating the utility function in two steps: 1) inferring a model of the environment from interactions, and 2) computing utility as a function of the environment model. Basing a utility function on a model that the agent must learn implies that the utility function must initially be expressed in terms of specifications to be matched to structures in the learned model. These specifications constitute prior assumptions about the environment so this approach will not work with arbitrary environments. But the approach should work for agents designed by humans to act in the physical world. The paper also addresses the issue of self-modifying agents and shows that if provided with the possibility to modify their utility functions agents will not choose to do so, under some usual assumptions.

  12. Joint Bayesian analysis of birthweight and censored gestational age using finite mixture models

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Scott L.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Miranda, Marie L.

    2016-01-01

    Birthweight and gestational age are closely related and represent important indicators of a healthy pregnancy. Customary modeling for birthweight is conditional on gestational age. However, joint modeling directly addresses the relationship between gestational age and birthweight, and provides increased flexibility and interpretation as well as a strategy to avoid using gestational age as an intermediate variable. Previous proposals have utilized finite mixtures of bivariate regression models to incorporate well-established risk factors into analysis (e.g. sex and birth order of the baby, maternal age, race, and tobacco use) while examining the non-Gaussian shape of the joint birthweight and gestational age distribution. We build on this approach by demonstrating the inferential (prognostic) benefits of joint modeling (e.g. investigation of `age inappropriate' outcomes like small for gestational age) and hence re-emphasize the importance of capturing the non-Gaussian distributional shapes. We additionally extend current models through a latent specification which admits interval-censored gestational age. We work within a Bayesian framework which enables inference beyond customary parameter estimation and prediction as well as exact uncertainty assessment. The model is applied to a portion of the 2003–2006 North Carolina Detailed Birth Record data (n=336129) available through the Children's Environmental Health Initiative and is fitted using the Bayesian methodology and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. PMID:20575047

  13. Epigenetic age predictions based on buccal swabs are more precise in combination with cell type-specific DNA methylation signatures.

    PubMed

    Eipel, Monika; Mayer, Felix; Arent, Tanja; Ferreira, Marcelo R P; Birkhofer, Carina; Gerstenmaier, Uwe; Costa, Ivan G; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2016-05-01

    Aging is reflected by highly reproducible DNA methylation (DNAm) changes that open new perspectives for estimation of chronological age in legal medicine. DNA can be harvested non-invasively from cells at the inside of a person's cheek using buccal swabs - but these specimens resemble heterogeneous mixtures of buccal epithelial cells and leukocytes with different epigenetic makeup. In this study, we have trained an age predictor based on three age-associated CpG sites (associated with the genesPDE4C, ASPA, and ITGA2B) for swab samples to reach a mean absolute deviation (MAD) between predicted and chronological age of 4.3 years in a training set and of 7.03 years in a validation set. Subsequently, the composition of buccal epithelial cells versus leukocytes was estimated by two additional CpGs (associated with the genes CD6 and SERPINB5). Results of this "Buccal-Cell-Signature" correlated with cell counts in cytological stains (R2 = 0.94). Combination of cell type-specific and age-associated CpGs into one multivariate model enabled age predictions with MADs of 5.09 years and 5.12 years in two independent validation sets. Our results demonstrate that the cellular composition in buccal swab samples can be determined by DNAm at two cell type-specific CpGs to improve epigenetic age predictions. PMID:27249102

  14. Epigenetic age predictions based on buccal swabs are more precise in combination with cell type-specific DNA methylation signatures

    PubMed Central

    Eipel, Monika; Mayer, Felix; Arent, Tanja; Ferreira, Marcelo R. P.; Birkhofer, Carina; Gerstenmaier, Uwe; Costa, Ivan G.; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Aging is reflected by highly reproducible DNA methylation (DNAm) changes that open new perspectives for estimation of chronological age in legal medicine. DNA can be harvested non-invasively from cells at the inside of a person's cheek using buccal swabs – but these specimens resemble heterogeneous mixtures of buccal epithelial cells and leukocytes with different epigenetic makeup. In this study, we have trained an age predictor based on three age-associated CpG sites (associated with the genes PDE4C, ASPA, and ITGA2B) for swab samples to reach a mean absolute deviation (MAD) between predicted and chronological age of 4.3 years in a training set and of 7.03 years in a validation set. Subsequently, the composition of buccal epithelial cells versus leukocytes was estimated by two additional CpGs (associated with the genes CD6 and SERPINB5). Results of this “Buccal-Cell-Signature” correlated with cell counts in cytological stains (R2 = 0.94). Combination of cell type-specific and age-associated CpGs into one multivariate model enabled age predictions with MADs of 5.09 years and 5.12 years in two independent validation sets. Our results demonstrate that the cellular composition in buccal swab samples can be determined by DNAm at two cell type-specific CpGs to improve epigenetic age predictions. PMID:27249102

  15. Evaluation and clinical significance of the stomach age model for evaluating aging of the stomach-a multicenter study in China

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background A higher prevalence of chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) occurs in younger adults in Asia. We used Stomach Age to examine the different mechanisms of CAG between younger adults and elderly individuals, and established a simple model of cancer risk that can be applied to CAG surveillance. Methods Stomach Age was determined by FISH examination of telomere length in stomach biopsies. Δψm was also determined by flow cytometry. Sixty volunteers were used to confirm the linear relationship between telomere length and age while 120 subjects were used to build a mathematical model by a multivariate analysis. Overall, 146 subjects were used to evaluate the validity of the model, and 1,007 subjects were used to evaluate the relationship between prognosis and Δage (calculated from the mathematical model). ROC curves were used to evaluate the relationship between prognosis and Δage and to determine the cut-off point for Δage. Results We established that a tight linear relationship between the telomere length and the age. The telomere length was obvious different between patients with and without CAG even in the same age. Δψm decreased in individuals whose Stomach Age was greater than real age, especially in younger adults. A mathematical model of Stomach Age (real age + Δage) was successfully constructed which was easy to apply in clinical work. A higher Δage was correlated with a worse outcome. The criterion of Δage >3.11 should be considered as the cut-off to select the subgroup of patients who require endoscopic surveillance. Conclusion Variation in Stomach Age between individuals of the same biological age was confirmed. Attention should be paid to those with a greater Stomach Age, especially in younger adults. The Δage in the Simple Model can be used as a criterion to select CAG patients for gastric cancer surveillance. PMID:25057261

  16. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent based versus structured metapopulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonçalves, Bruno; Ajelli, Marco; Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2010-03-01

    We provide for the first time a side by side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the evolution of a baseline pandemic event in Italy. The Agent Based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short range human mobility patterns at the global scale. Both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing of the order of few days. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes.

  17. Progressive Age-Related Changes Similar to Age-Related Macular Degeneration in a Transgenic Mouse Model

    PubMed Central

    Rakoczy, Piroska Elizabeth; Zhang, Dan; Robertson, Terry; Barnett, Nigel L.; Papadimitriou, John; Constable, Ian Jeffrey; Lai, Chooi-May

    2002-01-01

    Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the major cause of blindness in the developed world. Its pathomechanism is unknown and its late onset, complex genetics and strong environmental components have all hampered investigations. Here we demonstrate the development of an animal model for AMD that reproduces features associated with geographic atrophy; a transgenic mouse line (mcd/mcd) expressing a mutated form of cathepsin D that is enzymatically inactive thus impairing processing of phagocytosed photoreceptor outer segments in the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells. Pigmentary changes indicating RPE cell atrophy and a decreased response to flash electroretinograms were observed in 11- to 12-month-old mcd/mcd mice. Histological studies showed RPE cell proliferation, photoreceptor degeneration, shortening of photoreceptor outer segments, and accumulation of immunoreactive photoreceptor breakdown products in the RPE cells. An accelerated photoreceptor cell death was detected in 12-month-old mcd/mcd mice. Transmission electron microscopy demonstrated presence of basal laminar and linear deposits that are considered to be the hallmarks of AMD. Small hard drusen associated with human age-related maculopathy were absent in the mcd/mcd mouse model at the ages analyzed. In summary, this model presents several features of AMD, thus providing a valuable tool for investigating the underlying biological processes and pathomechanism of AMD. PMID:12368224

  18. Toward an animal model of extinction-induced despair: focus on aging and physiological indices.

    PubMed

    Huston, Joseph P; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2009-08-01

    Behaviors that are under the control of positive or negative reinforcers undergo extinction when the anticipated reward/reinforcer is withheld. Despair, an important symptom of environmentally determined depression in humans, can be generated by extinction, or the failure of expected reward to accrue. Although well known to clinicians dealing with depressive patients, an animal model has not been available for extinction-induced depression. We have made a beginning towards validating such a model, based on the extinction of negatively reinforced behavior in the rat, i.e., upon removal of the possibility to escape onto a safety platform in the water maze. As a marker for despair, we employed behavioral immobility, i.e., the cessation of swimming in the attempt to find safety from the water, presumably, a type of learned helplessness. This measure was sensitive to antidepressants and correlated with neurotransmitter contents, neurotrophins and hypothalamus-pituitary adrenal axis markers in selected sites of the brain. Given that some cases of depression in the elderly may be biologically distinct from others and from early-onset depression, and since particularly the aged are prone to experience extinction-induced despair, we compared aged (ca. 24 months old) animals with adults in most of our studies. We found a number of distinct differences in behavioral and biological measures, indicative of differences in propensity to, as well as response to, extinction-induced despair between aged and adults. Our results add to the body of evidence for differences in the neurobiological substrates of depressive disorders between aged and adults, with the implication for the requirement of different treatment strategies in these two populations. PMID:19350220

  19. A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

    PubMed

    Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

    2016-06-01

    Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations. PMID:26328769

  20. Vitamin C alleviates aging defects in a stem cell model for Werner syndrome.

    PubMed

    Li, Ying; Zhang, Weizhou; Chang, Liang; Han, Yan; Sun, Liang; Gong, Xiaojun; Tang, Hong; Liu, Zunpeng; Deng, Huichao; Ye, Yanxia; Wang, Yu; Li, Jian; Qiao, Jie; Qu, Jing; Zhang, Weiqi; Liu, Guang-Hui

    2016-07-01

    Werner syndrome (WS) is a premature aging disorder that mainly affects tissues derived from mesoderm. We have recently developed a novel human WS model using WRN-deficient human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs). This model recapitulates many phenotypic features of WS. Based on a screen of a number of chemicals, here we found that Vitamin C exerts most efficient rescue for many features in premature aging as shown in WRN-deficient MSCs, including cell growth arrest, increased reactive oxygen species levels, telomere attrition, excessive secretion of inflammatory factors, as well as disorganization of nuclear lamina and heterochromatin. Moreover, Vitamin C restores in vivo viability of MSCs in a mouse model. RNA sequencing analysis indicates that Vitamin C alters the expression of a series of genes involved in chromatin condensation, cell cycle regulation, DNA replication, and DNA damage repair pathways in WRN-deficient MSCs. Our results identify Vitamin C as a rejuvenating factor for WS MSCs, which holds the potential of being applied as a novel type of treatment of WS. PMID:27271327

  1. Biometry based ageing of nestling Indian Spotted Owlets ( Athene brama brama).

    PubMed

    Pande, Satish; Pawashe, Amit; Mahajan, Mahadeo N; Mahabal, Anil; Yosef, Reuven; Dahanukar, Neelesh

    2011-01-01

    Biometric analysis helps in sex differentiation, understanding development and for studies of avian biology such as foraging ecology, evolutionary ecology, and survivorship. We suggest that biometry can also be a reliable, practical and inexpensive tool to determine the age of nestlings in the field by non-invasive methods. As an example we studied the biometry of wing, culmen, talon, tarsus and body mass of nestling southern Indian Spotted Owlets (Athene brama brama). Based on the growth pattern analysis using logistic growth model, discriminant analysis and CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) based decision tree, we show that biometry of nestling Spotted Owlets is an easy, reliable and inexpensive method to determine nestling age and to assess growth rate and relative nutritional status. These biometric parameters also allow us to predict their ability to initiate first flight from the nest site. This method is described here for the first time and we postulate that such charts can be devised for other avian species as well, so as to assist conservation biologists and bird rescuers. PMID:22140335

  2. Model-based reasoning: Troubleshooting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Randall; Hamscher, Walter C.

    1988-07-01

    To determine why something has stopped working, its useful to know how it was supposed to work in the first place. That simple observation underlies some of the considerable interest generated in recent years on the topic of model-based reasoning, particularly its application to diagnosis and troubleshooting. This paper surveys the current state of the art, reviewing areas that are well understood and exploring areas that present challenging research topics. It views the fundamental paradigm as the interaction of prediction and observation, and explores it by examining three fundamental subproblems: generating hypotheses by reasoning from a symptom to a collection of components whose misbehavior may plausibly have caused that symptom; testing each hypothesis to see whether it can account for all available observations of device behavior; then discriminating among the ones that survive testing. We analyze each of these independently at the knowledge level i.e., attempting to understand what reasoning capabilities arise from the different varieties of knowledge available to the program. We find that while a wide range of apparently diverse model-based systems have been built for diagnosis and troubleshooting, they are for the most part variations on the central theme outlined here. Their diversity lies primarily in the varying amounts of kinds of knowledge they bring to bear at each stage of the process; the underlying paradigm is fundamentally the same.

  3. Aging and strain softening model for episodic faulting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    1979-01-01

    Episodic slip on shallow crustal faults can be qualitatively explained by postulating a fault constitutive law that is the superposition of two limiting material responses: (1) strain softening after peak stress during large strain rates, and (2) strength (peak stress) recovery during aging at small strain rates. A single law permits a variety of seismic and aseismic phenomena to occur over a range of space and time scales. Specific cases are determined by the spatial variation of material constants, recent deformation history, crustal rigidity, and remote forcing. ?? 1979.

  4. Increasing Public Awareness and Developing Community Based Strategies for Quality School-Age Child Care Initiatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zuber, Susan Way

    A framework for gaining community involvement in planning for school-age child care initiatives is reported. The framework incorporates a plan than could be used as a model for the involvement of the public school system. Four primary components are described: (1) a "Kids' Council" Saturday meeting in which third graders in school-age child care…

  5. Oxidative Damage in the Aging Heart: an Experimental Rat Model

    PubMed Central

    Marques, Gustavo Lenci; Neto, Francisco Filipak; Ribeiro, Ciro Alberto de Oliveira; Liebel, Samuel; de Fraga, Rogério; Bueno, Ronaldo da Rocha Loures

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Several theories have been proposed to explain the cause of ‘aging’; however, the factors that affect this complex process are still poorly understood. Of these theories, the accumulation of oxidative damage over time is among the most accepted. Particularly, the heart is one of the most affected organs by oxidative stress. The current study, therefore, aimed to investigate oxidative stress markers in myocardial tissue of rats at different ages. Methods: Seventy-two rats were distributed into 6 groups of 12 animals each and maintained for 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months. After euthanasia, the heart was removed and the levels of non-protein thiols, lipid peroxidation, and protein carbonylation, as well as superoxide dismutase and catalase activities were determined. Results: Superoxide dismutase, catalase activity and lipid peroxidation were reduced in the older groups of animals, when compared with the younger group. However, protein carbonylation showed an increase in the 12-month group followed by a decrease in the older groups. In addition, the levels of non-protein thiols were increased in the 12-month group and not detected in the older groups. Conclusion: Our data showed that oxidative stress is not associated with aging in the heart. However, an increase in non-protein thiols may be an important factor that compensates for the decrease of superoxide dismutase and catalase activity in the oldest rats, to maintain appropriate antioxidant defenses against oxidative insults. PMID:27006709

  6. The National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry: A Sustainable Model for the Information Age?

    PubMed Central

    Dutton, Richard P.

    2014-01-01

    Anesthesiologists care for patients of all ages, with all conceivable comorbidities, in every kind of health care facility. This leads to a significant challenge in the collection of data to describe the specialty, and in the development of evidence-based performance measures for anesthesiologists. Whereas narrowly defined medical specialties have developed registries based on manual abstraction of clinical data from the medical record (e.g., cardiac surgery), this approach would be prohibitively expensive for anesthesiology, and is unlikely to generate statistically useful data when major adverse outcomes occur a handful of times in tens of thousands of cases. The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) addressed this challenge in 2008 by funding a related organization, the Anesthesia Quality Institute (AQI), to develop the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry (NACOR). The technical development of this registry and the approach taken to define the specialty of anesthesiology and the performance of anesthesiologists may serve as a model for other specialty society efforts. PMID:25848607

  7. Tile-based Level of Detail for the Parallel Age

    SciTech Connect

    Niski, K; Cohen, J D

    2007-08-15

    Today's PCs incorporate multiple CPUs and GPUs and are easily arranged in clusters for high-performance, interactive graphics. We present an approach based on hierarchical, screen-space tiles to parallelizing rendering with level of detail. Adapt tiles, render tiles, and machine tiles are associated with CPUs, GPUs, and PCs, respectively, to efficiently parallelize the workload with good resource utilization. Adaptive tile sizes provide load balancing while our level of detail system allows total and independent management of the load on CPUs and GPUs. We demonstrate our approach on parallel configurations consisting of both single PCs and a cluster of PCs.

  8. Hind limb unloading, a model of spaceflight conditions, leads to decreased B lymphopoiesis similar to aging.

    PubMed

    Lescale, Chloé; Schenten, Véronique; Djeghloul, Dounia; Bennabi, Meriem; Gaignier, Fanny; Vandamme, Katleen; Strazielle, Catherine; Kuzniak, Isabelle; Petite, Hervé; Dosquet, Christine; Frippiat, Jean-Pol; Goodhardt, Michele

    2015-02-01

    Within the bone marrow, the endosteal niche plays a crucial role in B-cell differentiation. Because spaceflight is associated with osteoporosis, we investigated whether changes in bone microstructure induced by a ground-based model of spaceflight, hind limb unloading (HU), could affect B lymphopoiesis. To this end, we analyzed both bone parameters and the frequency of early hematopoietic precursors and cells of the B lineage after 3, 6, 13, and 21 d of HU. We found that limb disuse leads to a decrease in both bone microstructure and the frequency of B-cell progenitors in the bone marrow. Although multipotent hematopoietic progenitors were not affected by HU, a decrease in B lymphopoiesis was observed as of the common lymphoid progenitor (CLP) stage with a major block at the progenitor B (pro-B) to precursor B (pre-B) cell transition (5- to 10-fold decrease). The modifications in B lymphopoiesis were similar to those observed in aged mice and, as with aging, decreased B-cell generation in HU mice was associated with reduced expression of B-cell transcription factors, early B-cell factor (EBF) and Pax5, and an alteration in STAT5-mediated IL-7 signaling. These findings demonstrate that mechanical unloading of hind limbs results in a decrease in early B-cell differentiation resembling age-related modifications in B lymphopoiesis. PMID:25376832

  9. Sex differences of anthropometric indices of obesity by age among Iranian adults in northern Iran: A predictive regression model

    PubMed Central

    Hajian-Tilaki, Karimollah; Heidari, Behzad

    2015-01-01

    Background: Background and Objectives: The biological variation of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with age may vary by gender. The objective of this study was to investigate the functional relationship of anthropometric measures with age and sex. Methods: The data were collected from a population-based cross-sectional study of 1800 men and 1800 women aged 20-70 years in northern Iran. The linear and quadratic pattern of age on weight, height, BMI and WC and WHR were tested statistically and the interaction effect of age and gender was also formally tested. Results: The quadratic model (age2) provided a significantly better fit than simple linear model for weight, BMI and WC. BMI, WC and weight explained a greater variance using quadratic form for women compared with men (for BMI, R2=0.18, p<0.001 vs R2=0.059, p<0.001 and for WC, R2=0.17, p<0.001 vs R2=0.047, p<0.001). For height, there is an inverse linear relationship while for WHR, a positive linear association was apparent by aging, the quadratic form did not add to better fit. Conclusion: These findings indicate the different patterns of weight gain, fat accumulation for visceral adiposity and loss of muscle mass between men and women in the early and middle adulthood. PMID:26644878

  10. Age and gender effects on human brain anatomy: a voxel-based morphometric study in healthy elderly.

    PubMed

    Smith, Charles D; Chebrolu, Himachandra; Wekstein, David R; Schmitt, Frederick A; Markesbery, William R

    2007-07-01

    The adult human brain shrinks slowly with age, but the regional specificity and tissue class specificity of this loss is unclear. Subjects (n=122) were healthy aged participants in a longitudinal cohort who undergo periodic standardized cognitive and clinical examination. Multi-spectral segmentation of magnetic resonance images into grey matter (GM), white matter (WM) and CSF was performed on cross-sectional image data using a custom template and calculated prior probability maps. Global differences were evaluated by fitting a regression model for absolute and normalized subject GM, WM, and CSF values. Global and regional patterns of GM, WM and CSF differences were assessed using optimized voxel-based morphometry (VBM). GM volume decreased with age at a rate of 2.4 cm(3)/year (-0.18%/year); CSF increased by 2.5 cm(3)/year (0.20%/year). Regression analyses showed no significant decrease in WM volume, but a focal WM decrease with age was detected in the anterior corpus callosum using VBM. Diffuse reductions of GM volume were seen with age in the frontal, parietal, and temporal cortex, cerebellum and basal ganglia. Relative regional differences in cortical GM volume with age occurred in the frontal, parietal and temporal lobes, but not in medial temporal lobe or in posterior cingulate. We did not observe significant gender effects. These findings establish a baseline for comparison with pathologic changes in human brain volume between ages 58 and 95 years. PMID:16774798

  11. Age models for peat deposits on the basis of coupled lead-210 and radiocarbon data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piotrowska, Natalia; de Vleeschouwer, François; Sikorski, Jarosław; Sensuła, Barbara; Michczyński, Adam; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Palowski, Bernard

    2010-05-01

    The study presents three examples of age-model construction based on the results of 210Pb and 14C dating methods applied to peat deposits. The three sites are ombrotrophic peat bogs: the Misten (Belgium), Slowinskie Bloto (N Poland) and Puscizna Mala (S Poland). All sites have been subjected to multiproxy studies aimed at reconstructing paleoenvironment and human activity, covering the last 1500, 1300 and 1800 years, respectively (De Vleeschouwer et al. 2009A, 2009B, in prep., Fialkiewicz-Koziel, ongoing PhD). A detailed comparison between 210Pb and post-bomb 14C results in the Misten bog has also been carried out by Piotrowska et al. (2009). In all cores, the 210Pb activity was calculated using 210Po and 208Po activities after acid-extraction from bulk samples, subsequent deposition on silver discs and measurements by alpha spectrometry. Unsupported 210Pb was detected until 35cm in Slowinskie Bloto, 15cm in the Misten and 19cm in Puscizna Mala. Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model was then applied to compute ages of each 1-cm core interval. For the Misten and Slowinskie Bloto, radiocarbon measurements were performed on selected aboveground plant macrofossils, mainly Sphagnum spp. or Calluna vulgaris, Erica tetralix, and Andromeda polyfolia. Radiocarbon ages were determined using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) after acid-alkali-acid wash, combustion, purification of carbon dioxide and graphitisation. For Puscizna Mala bulk samples were dated after chemical preparation of benzene for liquid scintillation counting (LSC) or CO2 for gas proportional counting (GPC). Radiocarbon calibration was undertaken using the Intcal04 calibration curve and OxCal 4 software. As a priori information the 210Pb-derived ages were used in a P_Sequence model (Bronk Ramsey, 2008). A number of dates characterized by low agreement with stratigraphical order had to be considered as outliers and rejected from the final age model. For building a continuous age models a non-linear approach

  12. Nanoscale dynamics and aging of fibrous peptide-based gels

    SciTech Connect

    Dudukovic, Nikola A.; Zukoski, Charles F.

    2014-10-28

    Solutions of the aromatic dipeptide derivative molecule fluorenylmethoxycarbonyl-diphenylalanine (Fmoc-FF) in dimethyl sulfoxide produce fibrous gels when mixed with water. We study the evolution of density fluctuations of this three-component system using X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) and compare these results to the macroscopic rheology of the gels and optical observations of the microstructure evolution. At the investigated scattering angles, the intensity autocorrelation functions do not follow behavior expected for simple diffusion of individual Fmoc-FF molecules localized within cages of nearest neighbors. Instead, the dynamics are associated with density fluctuations on length scales of ∼10–100 nm arising from disaggregation and reformation of fibers, leading to an increasingly uniform network. This process is correlated with the growth of the elastic modulus, which saturates at long times. Autocorrelation functions and relaxation times acquired from XPCS measurements are consistent with relaxation rates of structures at dynamic equilibrium. This study provides further support to the concept of exploring peptide-based gelators as valence-limited patchy particles capable of forming equilibrium gels.

  13. Nanoscale dynamics and aging of fibrous peptide-based gels.

    PubMed

    Dudukovic, Nikola A; Zukoski, Charles F

    2014-10-28

    Solutions of the aromatic dipeptide derivative molecule fluorenylmethoxycarbonyl-diphenylalanine (Fmoc-FF) in dimethyl sulfoxide produce fibrous gels when mixed with water. We study the evolution of density fluctuations of this three-component system using X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) and compare these results to the macroscopic rheology of the gels and optical observations of the microstructure evolution. At the investigated scattering angles, the intensity autocorrelation functions do not follow behavior expected for simple diffusion of individual Fmoc-FF molecules localized within cages of nearest neighbors. Instead, the dynamics are associated with density fluctuations on length scales of ~10-100 nm arising from disaggregation and reformation of fibers, leading to an increasingly uniform network. This process is correlated with the growth of the elastic modulus, which saturates at long times. Autocorrelation functions and relaxation times acquired from XPCS measurements are consistent with relaxation rates of structures at dynamic equilibrium. This study provides further support to the concept of exploring peptide-based gelators as valence-limited patchy particles capable of forming equilibrium gels. PMID:25362339

  14. Nanoscale dynamics and aging of fibrous peptide-based gels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dudukovic, Nikola A.; Zukoski, Charles F.

    2014-10-01

    Solutions of the aromatic dipeptide derivative molecule fluorenylmethoxycarbonyl-diphenylalanine (Fmoc-FF) in dimethyl sulfoxide produce fibrous gels when mixed with water. We study the evolution of density fluctuations of this three-component system using X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) and compare these results to the macroscopic rheology of the gels and optical observations of the microstructure evolution. At the investigated scattering angles, the intensity autocorrelation functions do not follow behavior expected for simple diffusion of individual Fmoc-FF molecules localized within cages of nearest neighbors. Instead, the dynamics are associated with density fluctuations on length scales of ˜10-100 nm arising from disaggregation and reformation of fibers, leading to an increasingly uniform network. This process is correlated with the growth of the elastic modulus, which saturates at long times. Autocorrelation functions and relaxation times acquired from XPCS measurements are consistent with relaxation rates of structures at dynamic equilibrium. This study provides further support to the concept of exploring peptide-based gelators as valence-limited patchy particles capable of forming equilibrium gels.

  15. Genome-Based Microbial Taxonomy Coming of Age.

    PubMed

    Hugenholtz, Philip; Skarshewski, Adam; Parks, Donovan H

    2016-01-01

    Reconstructing the complete evolutionary history of extant life on our planet will be one of the most fundamental accomplishments of scientific endeavor, akin to the completion of the periodic table, which revolutionized chemistry. The road to this goal is via comparative genomics because genomes are our most comprehensive and objective evolutionary documents. The genomes of plant and animal species have been systematically targeted over the past decade to provide coverage of the tree of life. However, multicellular organisms only emerged in the last 550 million years of more than three billion years of biological evolution and thus comprise a small fraction of total biological diversity. The bulk of biodiversity, both past and present, is microbial. We have only scratched the surface in our understanding of the microbial world, as most microorganisms cannot be readily grown in the laboratory and remain unknown to science. Ground-breaking, culture-independent molecular techniques developed over the past 30 years have opened the door to this so-called microbial dark matter with an accelerating momentum driven by exponential increases in sequencing capacity. We are on the verge of obtaining representative genomes across all life for the first time. However, historical use of morphology, biochemical properties, behavioral traits, and single-marker genes to infer organismal relationships mean that the existing highly incomplete tree is riddled with taxonomic errors. Concerted efforts are now needed to synthesize and integrate the burgeoning genomic data resources into a coherent universal tree of life and genome-based taxonomy. PMID:26988968

  16. Molecular mechanisms and in vivo mouse models of skin aging associated with dermal matrix alterations.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Kyung-A; Yi, Bo-Rim; Choi, Kyung-Chul

    2011-03-01

    Skin is the most superficial body organ and plays an important role in protecting the body from environmental damage and in forming social relations. With the increase of the aging population in our society, dermatological and cosmetic concerns of skin aging are rapidly increasing. Skin aging is a complex process combined with intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Intrinsic or chronological skin aging results from the passage of time and is influenced by genetic factors. Extrinsic skin aging is mainly determined by UV irradiation, also called photoaging. These two types of aging processes are superimposed on sun-exposed skin, and have a common feature of causing dermal matrix alterations that mostly contribute to the formation of wrinkles, laxity, and fragility of aged skin. The dermal matrix contains extracellular matrix proteins such as collagen, elastin, and proteoglycans that confer the strength and resiliency of skin. Skin aging associated with dermal matrix alterations and atrophy can be caused by cellular senescence of dermal cells like fibroblasts, and decreased synthesis and accelerated degradation of dermal matrix components, especially collagen fibers. Both intrinsic aging and photoaging exert influence during each step of dermal matrix alteration via different mechanisms. Mouse models of skin aging have been extensively developed to elucidate intrinsic aging and photoaging processes, to validate in vitro biochemical data, and to test the effects of pharmacological tools for retarding skin aging because they have the advantages of being genetically similar to humans and are easily available. PMID:21826153

  17. GPU-Accelerated Molecular Modeling Coming Of Age

    PubMed Central

    Stone, John E.; Hardy, David J.; Ufimtsev, Ivan S.

    2010-01-01

    Graphics processing units (GPUs) have traditionally been used in molecular modeling solely for visualization of molecular structures and animation of trajectories resulting from molecular dynamics simulations. Modern GPUs have evolved into fully programmable, massively parallel co-processors that can now be exploited to accelerate many scientific computations, typically providing about one order of magnitude speedup over CPU code and in special cases providing speedups of two orders of magnitude. This paper surveys the development of molecular modeling algorithms that leverage GPU computing, the advances already made and remaining issues to be resolved, and the continuing evolution of GPU technology that promises to become even more useful to molecular modeling. Hardware acceleration with commodity GPUs is expected to benefit the overall computational biology community by bringing teraflops performance to desktop workstations and in some cases potentially changing what were formerly batch-mode computational jobs into interactive tasks. PMID:20675161

  18. Sensor-based interior modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Herbert, M.; Hoffman, R.; Johnson, A.; Osborn, J.

    1995-02-01

    Robots and remote systems will play crucial roles in future decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of nuclear facilities. Many of these facilities, such as uranium enrichment plants, weapons assembly plants, research and production reactors, and fuel recycling facilities, are dormant; there is also an increasing number of commercial reactors whose useful lifetime is nearly over. To reduce worker exposure to radiation, occupational and other hazards associated with D&D tasks, robots will execute much of the work agenda. Traditional teleoperated systems rely on human understanding (based on information gathered by remote viewing cameras) of the work environment to safely control the remote equipment. However, removing the operator from the work site substantially reduces his efficiency and effectiveness. To approach the productivity of a human worker, tasks will be performed telerobotically, in which many aspects of task execution are delegated to robot controllers and other software. This paper describes a system that semi-automatically builds a virtual world for remote D&D operations by constructing 3-D models of a robot`s work environment. Planar and quadric surface representations of objects typically found in nuclear facilities are generated from laser rangefinder data with a minimum of human interaction. The surface representations are then incorporated into a task space model that can be viewed and analyzed by the operator, accessed by motion planning and robot safeguarding algorithms, and ultimately used by the operator to instruct the robot at a level much higher than teleoperation.

  19. Orbitally tuned age model for the late Pliocene-Pleistocene lacustrine succession of drill core SG-1 from the western Qaidam Basin (NE Tibetan Plateau)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herb, Christian; Appel, Erwin; Voigt, Silke; Koutsodendris, Andreas; Pross, Jörg; Zhang, Weilin; Fang, Xiaomin

    2015-01-01

    The availability of accurate and reliable age control is a crucial prerequisite for palaeoclimate studies, particularly when different archives are to be compared. Here we present a detailed depth-to-time transformation for the lacustrine sediments of a ˜940-m-long drill core (SG-1) from the western Qaidam Basin (NE Tibetan Plateau). To establish a more precise age model than the one previously available, which was based solely on magnetostratigraphic dating using polarity boundaries as tie points, we applied time-series analysis on magnetic susceptibility (χ) variation. The χ data are available in high resolution and are considered to be closely linked to orbital forcing. Since the sediment accumulation rate (SAR) varies strongly throughout the succession of core SG-1, conventional cyclostratigraphy by bandpass filtering cannot be applied. We present two alternative age models based on spectral characteristics and orbital tuning. The first age model (TPspec) is based on the assumption that changes in SAR occurred when the frequency spectra revealed obviously different characteristics in the spectral pattern. For the second age model (SARA), SAR was adjusted every 2 m by comparing observed with expected orbital cycles in accordance with the age of magnetic reversals. This age model appears more robust and shows the most convincing spectral results in the frequency and wavelet power spectrum of χ. According to the SARA age model, SAR varies between 14 and 73 cm kyr-1, and the bottom of SG-1 has an age of 2.69 Ma. Our results show that orbital tuning can be successfully applied for sequences with strongly variable SAR. The age model SARA can be used for a more detailed analysis of the existing multiproxy data set in terms of palaeoclimate evolution. The most prominent feature of χ spectra using the SARA age model is the identification of the middle Pleistocene transition.

  20. Using synthetic models to simulate aging of Cu contamination in soils.

    PubMed

    Proffit, S; Marin, B; Cances, B; Ponthieu, M; Sayen, S; Guillon, E

    2015-05-01

    The Bureau Commun de Référence (BCR) sequential extraction scheme and micro-synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence (μ-SXRF) analysis were used to determine the Cu fractionation in a calcareous vineyard soil and a synthetic soil (mixture of seven constituents: calcite, birnessite, ferrihydrite, goethite, lignocellulosic residue, kaolinite, and quartz) at different Cu contamination rates (190, 1270, and 6350 mg kg(-1) of Cu) and aging times (1, 30, 92, and 181 days). The Cu distribution in the spiked vineyard and synthetic soils was different from the original vineyard one and was influenced by the loading level. The newly added Cu was preferentially present in the acid soluble fraction. Aging of the contaminated vineyard and synthetic soils during 6 months led to the redistribution of Cu from the weakly bound acid soluble fraction to the strongly bound reducible one. The evolution with time could satisfactorily be simulated by the Elovich diffusion model for the synthetic soils. It was less significant as less marked in the contaminated vineyard soil than in the synthetic one, even though the trends observed in both were similar. This study supported the hypothesis that "simple" synthetic models could be used to approach the Cu fractionation and its evolution with time in vineyard soils. PMID:25801368

  1. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country’s population based on an “age-structured population model”; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an “individual household size model”; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a “total household size model”. The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country’s population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables. PMID:26382594

  2. Differential Geometry Based Multiscale Models

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-01-01

    Large chemical and biological systems such as fuel cells, ion channels, molecular motors, and viruses are of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, these complex systems in conjunction with their aquatic environment pose a fabulous challenge to theoretical description, simulation, and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry based multiscale paradigm to model complex macromolecular systems, and to put macroscopic and microscopic descriptions on an equal footing. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum mechanical description of the aquatic environment with the microscopic discrete atom-istic description of the macromolecule. Multiscale free energy functionals, or multiscale action functionals are constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales and different descriptions. Two types of aqueous macromolecular complexes, ones that are near equilibrium and others that are far from equilibrium, are considered in our formulations. We show that generalized Navier–Stokes equations for the fluid dynamics, generalized Poisson equations or generalized Poisson–Boltzmann equations for electrostatic interactions, and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived by the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows. Comparison is given to classical descriptions of the fluid and electrostatic interactions without geometric flow based micro-macro interfaces. The detailed balance of forces is emphasized in the present work. We further extend the proposed multiscale paradigm to micro-macro analysis of electrohydrodynamics, electrophoresis, fuel cells, and ion channels. We derive generalized Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations that

  3. Aging and Interdependence: A Theoretical Model for Close Relationships.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blieszner, Rosemary

    This paper demonstrates the utility of interdependence theory for understanding older persons' social relationships. Using friendship as an exemplary case, a model of expectations for and reactions to social exchanges is described. Exchanges which are perceived to be motivated by obligation are distinguished from those which are perceived to…

  4. In vivo animal models of body composition in aging

    SciTech Connect

    Yasumura, S. |; Jones, K.; Spanne, P.; Schidlovsky, G.; Wielopolski, L.; Ren, X.; Glaros, D.; Xatzikonstantinou, Y. |

    1992-12-31

    We developed several techniques that provide data on body elemental composition from in vivo measurements in rats. These methods include total body potassium by whole-body counting of endogenous {sup 40}K; total body calcium (TBCa), sodium and chloride by in vivo neutron activation analysis and total body phosphorus (TBP) and nitrogen (TBN) by photon activation analysis. These elements provide information on total body fat, total body protein and skeletal mass. Measurements were made in 6-, 12- and 24-month-old rats. TBN Increased slightly between 6 and 12 months but was significantly lower by 24 months, indicating a substantial loss in total body protein. Working at the National Synchrotron light Source, we studied rat femurs by computed microtomography (CMT), and the elemental profile of the femur cortex by synchrotron-radiation induced X-ray emission (SRIXE). Although there were no significant changes in TBCA and TBP, indices of skeletal mass, CMT revealed a marked increase in the size and number of cavities in the endosteal region of the femur cortex with increasing age. The SRIXE analysis of this cortical bone revealed a parallel decrease in the endosteal Ca/P ratio. Thus, there are major alterations in bone morphology and regional elemental composition despite only modest changes in total skeletal mass.

  5. A Comparison of the Age-Spectra from Data Assimilation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Zhu, Zheng-Xin; Pawson, Steven; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably well-isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the diabatic trajectory calculations, the age spectrum is too broad as a result of too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum determined using the kinematic trajectory calculation is less broad and lacks an age offset; both of these features are due to excessive vertical dispersion of parcels. The tropical and mid-latitude mean age difference between the diabatically and kinematically determined age-spectra is about one year, the former being older. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM's are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles, and these anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. These anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport is too diffusive.

  6. Business model for sensor-based fall recognition systems.

    PubMed

    Fachinger, Uwe; Schöpke, Birte

    2014-01-01

    AAL systems require, in addition to sophisticated and reliable technology, adequate business models for their launch and sustainable establishment. This paper presents the basic features of alternative business models for a sensor-based fall recognition system which was developed within the context of the "Lower Saxony Research Network Design of Environments for Ageing" (GAL). The models were developed parallel to the R&D process with successive adaptation and concretization. An overview of the basic features (i.e. nine partial models) of the business model is given and the mutual exclusive alternatives for each partial model are presented. The partial models are interconnected and the combinations of compatible alternatives lead to consistent alternative business models. However, in the current state, only initial concepts of alternative business models can be deduced. The next step will be to gather additional information to work out more detailed models. PMID:25148563

  7. Dynamical network model for age-related health deficits and mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taneja, Swadhin; Mitnitski, Arnold B.; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew D.

    2016-02-01

    How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human aging. This quantitative frailty index (F ) is as good as chronological age in predicting mortality. In this paper, we use a dynamical network model of deficits to explore the effects of interactions between deficits, deficit damage and repair processes, and the connection between the F and mortality. With our model, we qualitatively reproduce Gompertz's law of increasing human mortality with age, the broadening of the F distribution with age, the characteristic nonlinear increase of the F with age, and the increased mortality of high-frailty individuals. No explicit time-dependence in damage or repair rates is needed in our model. Instead, implicit time-dependence arises through deficit interactions—so that the average deficit damage rates increase, and deficit repair rates decrease, with age. We use a simple mortality criterion, where mortality occurs when the most connected node is damaged.

  8. A Genome-Wide Longitudinal Transcriptome Analysis of the Aging Model Podospora anserine

    PubMed Central

    Philipp, Oliver; Hamann, Andrea; Servos, Jörg; Werner, Alexandra; Koch, Ina; Osiewacz, Heinz D.

    2013-01-01

    Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression). A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i) present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii) suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii) present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations. PMID:24376646

  9. Comparative and alternative approaches and novel animal models for aging research

    PubMed Central

    Kristan, D. M.

    2008-01-01

    This special issue of AGE showcases powerful alternative or unconventional approaches to basic aging research, including the use of exceptionally long-lived animal model species and comparative methods from evolutionary biology. In this opening paper, we introduce several of these alternative aging research themes, including the comparative phylogenetic approach. This approach applies modern inferential methods for dissecting basic physiological and biochemical mechanisms correlated with phenotypic traits including longevity, slow aging, sustained somatic maintenance, and repair of molecular damage. Comparative methods can be used to assess the general relevance of specific aging mechanisms—including oxidative processes—to diverse animal species, as well as to assess their potential clinical relevance to humans and other mammals. We also introduce several other novel, underexploited approaches with particular relevance to biogerontology, including the use of model animal species or strains that retain natural genetic heterogeneity, studies of effects of infectious disease and parasites on aging and responses to caloric restriction, studies of reproductive aging, and naturally occurring sex differences in aging. We emphasize the importance of drawing inferences from aging phenomena in laboratory studies that can be applied to clinically relevant aging syndromes in long-lived, outbred animals, including humans. PMID:19424857

  10. Using groundwater age distributions to estimate the effective parameters of Fickian and non-Fickian models of solute transport

    PubMed Central

    Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater age distributions are used to estimate the parameters of Fickian, and non-Fickian, effective models of solute transport. Based on the similarities between the transport and age equations, we develop a deconvolution based approach that describes transport between two monitoring wells. We show that the proposed method gives exact estimates of the travel time distribution between two wells when the domain is stationary and that the method still provides useful information on transport when the domain is non-stationary. The method is demonstrated using idealized uniform and layered 2-D aquifers. Homogeneous transport is determined exactly and non-Fickian transport in a layered aquifer was also approximated very well, even though this example problem is shown to be scale-dependent. This work introduces a method that addresses a significant limitation of tracer tests and non-Fickian transport modeling which is the difficulty in determining the effective parameters of the transport model. PMID:25821342

  11. Paleoglaciation of the Tibetan Plateau based on exposure ages and ELA depression estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyman, Jakob

    2014-05-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds a major part of all glaciers outside the polar regions and an ample record of past glaciations. The glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau has attracted significant interest, with a large body of research investigating the extent, timing, and climatic implications of past glaciations. Here I present an extensive compilation of exposure ages and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates from glacial deposits across the Tibetan Plateau to address the timing and degree of past glaciations. I compiled Be-10 exposure age data for a total of 1877 samples and recalculated exposure ages using an updated (lower) global Be-10 production rate. All samples were organized in groups of individual glacial deposits where each deposit represents one glacial event enabling evaluation of the exposure age clustering. For each glacial deposit I estimated the ELA depression based on a simple toe to headwall ratio approach using Google Earth. To discriminate good (well-clustered) from poor (scattered) exposure age groups the glacial deposits were divided into three groups based on exposure age clustering. A major part of the glacial deposits have scattered exposure ages affected by prior or incomplete exposure, complicating exposure age interpretations. The well-clustered exposure age groups are primarily from mountain ranges along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau with a main peak in age between 10 and 30 ka, indicating glacial advances during the global last glacial maximum (LGM). A large number of exposure ages older than 30 ka indicates maximum glaciation predating the LGM, but the exposure age scatter generally prohibits accurate definition of the glacial chronology. The ELA depression estimates scatter significantly, but a major part is remarkably low. Average ELA depressions of 333 ± 191 m for the LGM and 494 ± 280 m for the pre-LGM exposure indicate restricted glacier expansion and limited glacial cooling.

  12. Prediction of plantar soft tissue stiffness based on sex, age, bodyweight, height and body mass index.

    PubMed

    Teoh, Jee Chin; Lee, Taeyong

    2016-02-01

    15% of Diabetes Mellitus (DM) patients suffer high risk of ulceration and 85% of the amputation involving DM population is caused by non-healing ulcers. These findings elucidate the fact that foot ulcer can result in major amputation especially to the DM and elderly population. Therefore, early diagnosis of abnormally stiffened plantar soft tissue is needed to prevent the catastrophic tissue damage. In order to differentiate between normal and pathological tissues, a threshold reference value that defines healthy tissue is required. The objective of this study is to perform a multivariate analysis to estimate the healthy plantar tissue stiffness values based on the individuals physical attributes such as bodyweight (BW), height and body mass index (BMI) as well as their age and sex. 100 healthy subjects were recruited. Indentation was performed on 2nd metatarsal head pad at 3 different dorsiflexion angles of 0°, 20°, 40° and the hallux and heel at 0°. The results showed the important influences of BW, height and BMI in determining the plantar tissue stiffness. On the other hand, age and sex only play minimal roles. The study can be further extended to increase the reliability and accuracy of the proposed predictive model by evaluating several other related parameters such as body fat content, footwear usage, frequency of sports participation, etc. PMID:26474035

  13. Engineered Microtissues Formed by Schiff Base Crosslinking Restore the Chondrogenic Potential of Aged Mesenchymal Stem Cells.

    PubMed

    Millan, Christopher; Cavalli, Emma; Groth, Thomas; Maniura-Weber, Katharina; Zenobi-Wong, Marcy

    2015-06-24

    A universal method for reproducibly directing stem cell differentiation remains a major challenge for clinical applications involving cell-based therapies. The standard approach for chondrogenic induction by micromass pellet culture is highly susceptible to interdonor variability. A novel method for the fabrication of condensation-like engineered microtissues (EMTs) that utilizes hydrophilic polysaccharides to induce cell aggregation is reported here. Chondrogenesis of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in EMTs is significantly enhanced compared to micromass pellets made by centrifugation measured by type II collagen gene expression, dimethylmethylene blue assay, and histology. MSCs from aged donors that fail to differentiate in pellet culture are successfully induced to synthesize cartilage-specific matrix in EMTs under identical media conditions. Furthermore, the EMT polysaccharides support the loading and release of the chondroinduction factor transforming growth factor β3 (TGF-β3). TGF-β-loaded EMTs (EMT(+TGF) ) facilitate cartilaginous tissue formation during culture in media not supplemented with the growth factor. The clinical potential of this approach is demonstrated in an explant defect model where EMT(+TGF) from aged MSCs synthesize de novo tissue containing sulfated glycosaminoglycans and type II collagen in situ. PMID:25866187

  14. Kinetics of Static Strain Aging in Polycrystalline NiAl-based Alloys

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weaver, M. L.; Kaufman, M. J.; Noebe, R. D.

    1996-01-01

    The kinetics of yield point return have been studied in two NiAl-based alloys as a function of aging time at temperatures between 300 and 700 K. The results indicate that the upper yield stress increment, Delta sigma(sub u) (i.e., stress difference between the upper yield point and the final flow stress achieved during prestraining), in conventional purity (CP-NiAl) and in high purity carbon-doped (NiAl-C) material first increased with a t(exp 2/3) relationship before reaching a plateau. This behavior suggests that a Cottrell locking mechanism is the cause for yield points in NiAl. In addition, positive y-axis intercepts were observed in plots of Delta sigma(sub u) versus t(exp 2/3) suggesting the operation of a Snoek mechanism. Analysis according to the Cottrell Bilby model of atmosphere formation around dislocations yields an activation energy for yield point return in the range 70 to 76 kJ/mol which is comparable to the activation energy for diffusion of interstitial impurities in bcc metals. It is, thus, concluded that the kinetics of static strain aging in NiAl are controlled by the locking of dislocations by Cottrell atmospheres of carbon atoms around dislocations.

  15. Predictors of Retest Effects in a Longitudinal Study of Cognitive Aging in a Diverse Community-Based Sample.

    PubMed

    Gross, Alden L; Benitez, Andreana; Shih, Regina; Bangen, Katherine J; Glymour, M Maria M; Sachs, Bonnie; Sisco, Shannon; Skinner, Jeannine; Schneider, Brooke C; Manly, Jennifer J

    2015-08-01

    Better performance due to repeated testing can bias long-term trajectories of cognitive aging and correlates of change. We examined whether retest effects differ as a function of individual differences pertinent to cognitive aging: race/ethnicity, age, sex, language, years of education, literacy, and dementia risk factors including apolipoprotein E ε4 status, baseline cognitive performance, and cardiovascular risk. We used data from the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a community-based cohort of older adults (n=4073). We modeled cognitive change and retest effects in summary factors for general cognitive performance, memory, executive functioning, and language using multilevel models. Retest effects were parameterized in two ways, as improvement between the first and subsequent testings, and as the square root of the number of prior testings. We evaluated whether the retest effect differed by individual characteristics. The mean retest effect for general cognitive performance was 0.60 standard deviations (95% confidence interval [0.46, 0.74]), and was similar for memory, executive functioning, and language. Retest effects were greater for participants in the lowest quartile of cognitive performance (many of whom met criteria for dementia based on a study algorithm), consistent with regression to the mean. Retest did not differ by other characteristics. Retest effects are large in this community-based sample, but do not vary by demographic or dementia-related characteristics. Differential retest effects may not limit the generalizability of inferences across different groups in longitudinal research. PMID:26527240

  16. A Model for Incorporating Content on Aging into the Curriculum: K-12.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackwell, David L.; Hunt, Sara Stockard

    Following a statement of the problem of putting aging education in the elementary secondary curriculum, and a review of the relevant literature, a model for developing a curriculum on aging is presented. An overview of the 3-year project, developed in Baton Rouge, Louisiana schools for grades K-12, is offered, including activities and yearly…

  17. Modeling the Phenotypic Architecture of Autism Symptoms from Time of Diagnosis to Age 6

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Georgiades, Stelios; Boyle, Michael; Szatmari, Peter; Hanna, Steven; Duku, Eric; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Bryson, Susan; Fombonne, Eric; Volden, Joanne; Mirenda, Pat; Smith, Isabel; Roberts, Wendy; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Waddell, Charlotte; Bennett, Teresa; Elsabbagh, Mayada; Thompson, Ann

    2014-01-01

    The latent class structure of autism symptoms from the time of diagnosis to age 6 years was examined in a sample of 280 children with autism spectrum disorder. Factor mixture modeling was performed on 26 algorithm items from the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised at diagnosis (Time 1) and again at age 6 (Time 2). At Time 1, a…

  18. Adaptive Behavior and Cognitive Function of Adults with Down Syndrome: Modeling Change with Age.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawkins, Barbara A.; Eklund, Susan J.; James, David R.; Foose, Alice K.

    2003-01-01

    Fifty-eight adults with Down syndrome were assessed longitudinally over 10 years for the purpose of modeling aging-related change in cognitive function and adaptive behavior. Findings provide further evidence of changes in performance with age and include selected effects for participants who completed the study and those lost to follow-up.…

  19. Aging Well and the Environment: Toward an Integrative Model and Research Agenda for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wahl, Hans-Werner; Iwarsson, Susanne; Oswald, Frank

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: The effects of the physical-spatial-technical environment on aging well have been overlooked both conceptually and empirically. In the spirit of M. Powell Lawton's seminal work on aging and environment, this article attempts to rectify this situation by suggesting a new model of how older people interact with their…

  20. Age Differences within Secular IQ Trends: An Individual Growth Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanaya, Tomoe; Ceci, Stephen J.; Scullin, Matthew H.

    2005-01-01

    Age differences within the yo-yo trend in IQ, caused when aging norms that produce inflated scores are replaced with new norms, were examined using longitudinal WISC, WISC-R and WISC-III records of students tested for special education services from 10 school districts. Descriptive and individual growth modeling analyses revealed that while the…

  1. Conscientiousness, health, and aging: the life course of personality model.

    PubMed

    Shanahan, Michael J; Hill, Patrick L; Roberts, Brent W; Eccles, Jacquelynne; Friedman, Howard S

    2014-05-01

    The Conscientiousness (C) of the self and significant others influences health by way of mediational chains involving socioeconomic attainment, the avoidance and neutralization of stressors, the promotion of health behaviors and the minimization of risk behaviors, and the management of symptoms and diseases. Yet, meta-analyses reveal that these associations are moderated by factors that are not well understood. We propose the Life Course of Personality Model (LCP Model), which comprises a series of hypotheses that suggest how such mediational chains are subject to 2 sources of contingency. First, the mechanisms by which C translates into health and the avoidance of risk change from early childhood to late adulthood, involving processes that are specific to phases of the life course; also, however, C influences health by way of continuous processes extending over many decades of life. Second, C may be more consequential in some social contexts than in others, and when accompanied by some constellations of personality characteristics than by others. That is, the mediational processes by which C translates into health and the avoidance of disease are likely moderated by timing, social context (including the C of others), and other aspects of the individual's personality. We consider methodological implications of the LCP Model. PMID:23244406

  2. Effects of Extrinsic Mortality on the Evolution of Aging: A Stochastic Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Shokhirev, Maxim Nikolaievich; Johnson, Adiv Adam

    2014-01-01

    The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions, finding that high extrinsic mortality can select for the evolution of longer lifespans. To further elucidate the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of aging, we implemented a stochastic, agent-based, computational model. We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to predict which model parameters predispose populations to evolve longer or shorter lifespans in response to increased levels of predation. We report that longer lifespans evolved in the presence of rising predation if the cost of mating is relatively high and if energy is available in excess. Conversely, we found that dramatically shorter lifespans evolved when mating costs were relatively low and food was relatively scarce. We also analyzed the effects of increased predation on various parameters related to density dependence and energy allocation. Longer and shorter lifespans were accompanied by increased and decreased investments of energy into somatic maintenance, respectively. Similarly, earlier and later maturation ages were accompanied by increased and decreased energetic investments into early fecundity, respectively. Higher predation significantly decreased the total population size, enlarged the shared resource pool, and redistributed energy reserves for mature individuals. These results both corroborate and refine classical predictions, demonstrating a population-level trade-off between longevity and fecundity and identifying conditions that produce both classical and non

  3. IODP Expedition 351 Izu-Bonin-Mariana Arc Origins: Age model for Site U1438

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morris, Antony; Maffione, Marco; Kender, Sev; Aljahdali, Mohammed; Bandini, Alexandre; Guerra, Rodrigo do Monte

    2015-04-01

    We report preliminary paleomagnetic and paleontological results from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 351, which recovered an unprecedented ~1.4 km thick volcaniclastic sedimentary record documenting the initiation and subsequent evolution of the Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) intra-oceanic arc-basin system. Magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic constraints provide a high-resolution temporal framework for interpretation of this record. Paleomagnetic analyses of archive half core samples provide a continuous record of the geomagnetic field inclination down to 847 mbsf that allows construction of a detailed site magnetostratigraphy that closely matches the Geomagnetic Polarity Timescale (Gradstein et al., 2012). A total of 87 geomagnetic reversals have been recognized in the studied succession, extending back to ~36 Ma. Despite sporadic microfossil occurrences in parts, calcareous nannofossils, planktonic foraminifera and radiolarians each contribute to the age model for the entire Site. All nannofossil marker species for Oligocene to Eocene Zones NP25 to NP19/20 are recognised. Beneath paleomagnetic control (847-1449 mbsf), foraminifera and radiolarians provide the only age control. The most salient features of the age model are that: (i) average linear sedimentation rates during the Plio-Pleistocene range from 1.4 to 2.2 cm/ka; (ii) there was a reduction in sedimentation rates to 0.25 - 0.5 cm/ka throughout the Miocene; and (iii) sedimentation rates sharply increase again in the Oligocene to Late Eocene to a maximum of ~20 cm/ka. These quantitative constraints closely match (non-quantitative) inferences based on the lithostratigraphy of the site, with fine-grained/coarse-grained sediments dominating in periods with low/high sedimentation rates respectively.

  4. IODP Expedition 351 Izu-Bonin-Mariana Arc Origins: Age Model for Site U1438

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morris, A.; Aljahdali, M. H.; Bandini, A. N.; do Monte Guerra, R.; Kender, S.; Maffione, M.

    2014-12-01

    We report preliminary paleomagnetic and paleontological results from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 351, which recovered an unprecedented ~1.4 km thick volcaniclastic sedimentary record documenting the initiation and subsequent evolution of the Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) intra-oceanic arc-basin system. Magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic constraints provide a high-resolution temporal framework for interpretation of this record.Paleomagnetic analyses of archive half core samples provide a continuous record of the geomagnetic field inclination down to 847 mbsf that allows construction of a detailed site magnetostratigraphy that closely matches the Geomagnetic Polarity Timescale (Gradstein et al., 2012). A total of 87 geomagnetic reversals have been recognized in the studied succession, extending back to ~36 Ma. Despite sporadic microfossil occurrences in parts, calcareous nannofossils, planktonic foraminifera and radiolarians each contribute to the age model for the entire Site. All nannofossil marker species for Oligocene to Eocene Zones NP25 to NP19/20 are recognised. Beneath paleomagnetic control (847-1449 mbsf), foraminifera and radiolarians provide the only age control.The most salient features of the age model are that: (i) average linear sedimentation rates during the Plio-Pleistocene range from 1.4 to 2.2 cm/ka; (ii) there was a reduction in sedimentation rates to 0.25 - 0.5 cm/ka throughout the Miocene; and (iii) sedimentation rates sharply increase again in the Oligocene to Late Eocene to a maximum of ~20 cm/ka. These quantitative constraints closely match (non-quantitative) inferences based on the lithostratigraphy of the site, with fine-grained/coarse-grained sediments dominating in periods with low/high sedimentation rates respectively.

  5. Guide to APA-Based Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robins, Robert E.; Delisi, Donald P.

    2008-01-01

    In Robins and Delisi (2008), a linear decay model, a new IGE model by Sarpkaya (2006), and a series of APA-Based models were scored using data from three airports. This report is a guide to the APA-based models.

  6. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based landslide susceptibility models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capparelli, Giovanna; Formetta, Giuseppe; Versace, Pasquale

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. This paper presents a package of GIS based models for landslide susceptibility analysis. It was integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model using the Object Modeling System (OMS) modeling framework. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices (GOF) by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system offers the possibility to investigate and fairly compare the quality and the robustness of models and models parameters, according a procedure that includes: i) model parameters estimation by optimizing each of the GOF index separately, ii) models evaluation in the ROC plane by using each of the optimal parameter set, and iii) GOF robustness evaluation by assessing their sensitivity to the input parameter variation. This procedure was repeated for all three models. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, Average Index (AI) optimization coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. This research was funded by PON Project No. 01_01503 "Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk

  7. Modeling old-age wealth with endogenous early-life outcomes: The case of Mexico

    PubMed Central

    DeGraff, Deborah S.; Wong, Rebeca

    2014-01-01

    This paper contributes to the literature on the life course and aging by examining the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being, using data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study. Empirical research in this area has been challenged by the potential endogeneity of the early-life outcomes of interest, an issue which most studies ignore or downplay. Our contribution takes two forms: (1) we examine in detail the potential importance of two key life-cycle outcomes, age at marriage (a measure of family formation) and years of educational attainment (a measure of human capital investment) for old-age wealth, and (2) we illustrate the empirical value of past context variables that could help model the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being. Our illustrative approach, matching macro-level historical policy and census variables to individual records to use as instruments in modeling the endogeneity of early-life behaviors, yields a statistically identified two-stage model of old-age wealth with minimum bias. We use simulations to show that the results for the model of wealth in old age are meaningfully different when comparing the approach that accounts for endogeneity with an approach that assumes exogeneity of early-life outcomes. Furthermore, our results suggest that in the Mexican case, models which ignore the potential endogeneity of early-life outcomes are likely to under-estimate the effects of such variables on old-age wealth. PMID:25170434

  8. Modeling old-age wealth with endogenous early-life outcomes: The case of Mexico.

    PubMed

    DeGraff, Deborah S; Wong, Rebeca

    2014-04-01

    This paper contributes to the literature on the life course and aging by examining the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being, using data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study. Empirical research in this area has been challenged by the potential endogeneity of the early-life outcomes of interest, an issue which most studies ignore or downplay. Our contribution takes two forms: (1) we examine in detail the potential importance of two key life-cycle outcomes, age at marriage (a measure of family formation) and years of educational attainment (a measure of human capital investment) for old-age wealth, and (2) we illustrate the empirical value of past context variables that could help model the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being. Our illustrative approach, matching macro-level historical policy and census variables to individual records to use as instruments in modeling the endogeneity of early-life behaviors, yields a statistically identified two-stage model of old-age wealth with minimum bias. We use simulations to show that the results for the model of wealth in old age are meaningfully different when comparing the approach that accounts for endogeneity with an approach that assumes exogeneity of early-life outcomes. Furthermore, our results suggest that in the Mexican case, models which ignore the potential endogeneity of early-life outcomes are likely to under-estimate the effects of such variables on old-age wealth. PMID:25170434

  9. A novel strategy for forensic age prediction by DNA methylation and support vector regression model

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Cheng; Qu, Hongzhu; Wang, Guangyu; Xie, Bingbing; Shi, Yi; Yang, Yaran; Zhao, Zhao; Hu, Lan; Fang, Xiangdong; Yan, Jiangwei; Feng, Lei

    2015-01-01

    High deviations resulting from prediction model, gender and population difference have limited age estimation application of DNA methylation markers. Here we identified 2,957 novel age-associated DNA methylation sites (P < 0.01 and R2 > 0.5) in blood of eight pairs of Chinese Han female monozygotic twins. Among them, nine novel sites (false discovery rate < 0.01), along with three other reported sites, were further validated in 49 unrelated female volunteers with ages of 20–80 years by Sequenom Massarray. A total of 95 CpGs were covered in the PCR products and 11 of them were built the age prediction models. After comparing four different models including, multivariate linear regression, multivariate nonlinear regression, back propagation neural network and support vector regression, SVR was identified as the most robust model with the least mean absolute deviation from real chronological age (2.8 years) and an average accuracy of 4.7 years predicted by only six loci from the 11 loci, as well as an less cross-validated error compared with linear regression model. Our novel strategy provides an accurate measurement that is highly useful in estimating the individual age in forensic practice as well as in tracking the aging process in other related applications. PMID:26635134

  10. Development of a forensically useful age prediction method based on DNA methylation analysis.

    PubMed

    Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Spólnicka, Magdalena; Kupiec, Tomasz; Parys-Proszek, Agnieszka; Makowska, Żanetta; Pałeczka, Anna; Kucharczyk, Krzysztof; Płoski, Rafał; Branicki, Wojciech

    2015-07-01

    Forensic DNA phenotyping needs to be supplemented with age prediction to become a relevant source of information on human appearance. Recent progress in analysis of the human methylome has enabled selection of multiple candidate loci showing linear correlation with chronological age. Practical application in forensic science depends on successful validation of these potential age predictors. In this study, eight DNA methylation candidate loci were analysed using convenient and reliable pyrosequencing technology. A total number of 41 CpG sites was investigated in 420 samples collected from men and women aged from 2 to 75 years. The study confirmed correlation of all the investigated markers with human age. The five most significantly correlated CpG sites in ELOVL2 on 6p24.2, C1orf132 on 1q32.2, TRIM59 on 3q25.33, KLF14 on 7q32.3 and FHL2 on 2q12.2 were chosen to build a prediction model. This restriction allowed the technical analysis to be simplified without lowering the prediction accuracy significantly. Model parameters for a discovery set of 300 samples were R(2)=0.94 and the standard error of the estimate=4.5 years. An independent set of 120 samples was used to test the model performance. Mean absolute deviation for this testing set was 3.9 years. The number of correct predictions ±5 years achieved a very high level of 86.7% in the age category 2-19 and gradually decreased to 50% in the age category 60-75. The prediction model was deterministic for individuals belonging to these two extreme age categories. The developed method was implemented in a freely available online age prediction calculator. PMID:26026729

  11. Dynamical properties of the Penna aging model applied to the population of wolves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makowiec, Danuta

    1997-02-01

    The parameters of th Penna bit-string model of aging of biological systems are systematically tested to better understand the model itself as well as the results arising from applying this model to studies of the development of the stationary population of Alaska wolves.

  12. The Leadership Institute for Active Aging: A Volunteer Recruitment and Retention Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Laura; Steele, Jack; Thompson, Estina; D'heron, Cathy

    2002-01-01

    The Leadership Institute for Active Aging, an approach to recruiting and retaining volunteers over 50, provides training focused on community resources, aging, self-worth, and volunteering and internships in community-based organizations involving health and social services. Exit interviews and program evaluations affirmed that the leadership…

  13. Digital hand atlas for web-based bone age assessment: system design and implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Fei; Huang, H. K.; Pietka, Ewa; Gilsanz, Vicente

    2000-04-01

    A frequently used assessment method of skeletal age is atlas matching by a radiological examination of a hand image against a small set of Greulich-Pyle patterns of normal standards. The method however can lead to significant deviation in age assessment, due to a variety of observers with different levels of training. The Greulich-Pyle atlas based on middle upper class white populations in the 1950s, is also not fully applicable for children of today, especially regarding the standard development in other racial groups. In this paper, we present our system design and initial implementation of a digital hand atlas and computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) system for Web-based bone age assessment. The digital atlas will remove the disadvantages of the currently out-of-date one and allow the bone age assessment to be computerized and done conveniently via Web. The system consists of a hand atlas database, a CAD module and a Java-based Web user interface. The atlas database is based on a large set of clinically normal hand images of diverse ethnic groups. The Java-based Web user interface allows users to interact with the hand image database form browsers. Users can use a Web browser to push a clinical hand image to the CAD server for a bone age assessment. Quantitative features on the examined image, which reflect the skeletal maturity, is then extracted and compared with patterns from the atlas database to assess the bone age.

  14. Three-dimensional modeling of the various volumes of canines to determine age and sex: a preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Tardivo, Delphine; Sastre, Julien; Ruquet, Michel; Thollon, Lionel; Adalian, Pascal; Leonetti, Georges; Foti, Bruno

    2011-05-01

    Canines are usually used in anthropological and forensic sciences for sex and age determination. The best methods to estimate age are based on secondary dentine apposition, evaluated from periapical X-rays. The aim of this study was to propose a new method of sex and age estimation using 3D models to obtain more precise predictions using tooth volumes. Fifty-eight dental CT scans of patients aged 14-74 with a well-balanced sex ratio composed the sample. One hundred and thirty-three healthy canines were modeled (Mimics 12.0). The sample was divided into a training sample and a validation sample. An age formula was determined using the "pulp volume/tooth volume" ratio. Sex prediction was adjusted with total volumes. Applying the equations to the validation sample, no significant difference was found between the real and predicted ages, and 100% of the sex predictions were correct. This preliminary study gives interesting results, and this method is worth being tested on a larger data sample. PMID:21361946

  15. Degeneration of the Y chromosome in evolutionary aging models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo, M. P.; Onody, R. N.

    2005-06-01

    The Y chromosomes are genetically degenerated and do not recombine with their matching partners X. Recombination of XX pairs is pointed out as the key factor for the Y chromosome degeneration. However, there is an additional evolutionary force driving sex-chromosomes evolution. Here we show this mechanism by means of two different evolutionary models, in which sex chromosomes with non-recombining XX and XY pairs of chromosomes is considered. Our results show three curious effects. First, we observed that even when both XX and XY pairs of chromosomes do not recombine, the Y chromosomes still degenerate. Second, the accumulation of mutations on Y chromosomes followed a completely different pattern then those accumulated on X chromosomes. And third, the models may differ with respect to sexual proportion. These findings suggest that a more primeval mechanism rules the evolution of Y chromosomes due exclusively to the sex-chromosomes asymmetry itself, i.e., the fact that Y chromosomes never experience female bodies. Over aeons, natural selection favored X chromosomes spontaneously, even if at the very beginning of evolution, both XX and XY pairs of chromosomes did not recombine.

  16. Age-dependent cognitive impairment in a Drosophila Fragile X model and its pharmacological rescue

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Catherine H.; Schoenfeld, Brian P.; Liebelt, David A.; Ferreiro, David; Ferrick, Neal J.; Hinchey, Paul; Kollaros, Maria; Rudominer, Rebecca L.; Terlizzi, Allison M.; Koenigsberg, Eric; Wang, Yan; Sumida, Ai; Nguyen, Hanh T.; Bell, Aaron J.; McDonald, Thomas V.

    2010-01-01

    Fragile X syndrome afflicts 1 in 2,500 individuals and is the leading heritable cause of mental retardation worldwide. The overriding clinical manifestation of this disease is mild to severe cognitive impairment. Age-dependent cognitive decline has been identified in Fragile X patients, although it has not been fully characterized nor examined in animal models. A Drosophila model of this disease has been shown to display phenotypes bearing similarity to Fragile X symptoms. Most notably, we previously identified naive courtship and memory deficits in young adults with this model that appear to be due to enhanced metabotropic glutamate receptor (mGluR) signaling. Herein we have examined age-related cognitive decline in the Drosophila Fragile X model and found an age-dependent loss of learning during training. We demonstrate that treatment with mGluR antagonists or lithium can prevent this age-dependent cognitive impairment. We also show that treatment with mGluR antagonists or lithium during development alone displays differential efficacy in its ability to rescue naive courtship, learning during training and memory in aged flies. Furthermore, we show that continuous treatment during aging effectively rescues all of these phenotypes. These results indicate that the Drosophila model recapitulates the age-dependent cognitive decline observed in humans. This places Fragile X in a category with several other diseases that result in age-dependent cognitive decline. This demonstrates a role for the Drosophila Fragile X Mental Retardation Protein (dFMR1) in neuronal physiology with regard to cognition during the aging process. Our results indicate that misregulation of mGluR activity may be causative of this age onset decline and strengthens the possibility that mGluR antagonists and lithium may be potential pharmacologic compounds for counteracting several Fragile X symptoms. PMID:20039205

  17. MicroRNA-Based Linkage between Aging and Cancer: from Epigenetics View Point.

    PubMed

    Saeidimehr, Saeid; Ebrahimi, Ammar; Saki, Najmaldin; Goodarzi, Parisa; Rahim, Fakher

    2016-01-01

    Ageing is a complex process and a broad spectrum of physical, psychological, and social changes over time. Accompanying diseases and disabilities, which can interfere with cancer treatment and recovery, occur in old ages. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a set of small non-coding RNAs, which have considerable roles in post-transcriptional regulation at gene expression level. In this review, we attempted to summarize the current knowledge of miRNAs functions in ageing, with mainly focuses on malignancies and all underlying genetic, molecular and epigenetics mechanisms. The evidences indicated the complex and dynamic nature of miRNA-based linkage of ageing and cancer at genomics and epigenomics levels which might be generally crucial for understanding the mechanisms of age-related cancer and ageing. Recently in the field of cancer and ageing, scientists claimed that uric acid can be used to regulate reactive oxygen species (ROS), leading to cancer and ageing prevention; these findings highlight the role of miRNA-based inhibition of the SLC2A9 antioxidant pathway in cancer, as a novel way to kill malignant cells, while a patient is fighting with cancer. PMID:27540517

  18. MicroRNA-