Science.gov

Sample records for age model based

  1. Lithium battery aging model based on Dakin's degradation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baghdadi, Issam; Briat, Olivier; Delétage, Jean-Yves; Gyan, Philippe; Vinassa, Jean-Michel

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes and validates a calendar and power cycling aging model for two different lithium battery technologies. The model development is based on previous SIMCAL and SIMSTOCK project data. In these previous projects, the effect of the battery state of charge, temperature and current magnitude on aging was studied on a large panel of different battery chemistries. In this work, data are analyzed using Dakin's degradation approach. In fact, the logarithms of battery capacity fade and the increase in resistance evolves linearly over aging. The slopes identified from straight lines correspond to battery aging rates. Thus, a battery aging rate expression function of aging factors was deduced and found to be governed by Eyring's law. The proposed model simulates the capacity fade and resistance increase as functions of the influencing aging factors. Its expansion using Taylor series was consistent with semi-empirical models based on the square root of time, which are widely studied in the literature. Finally, the influence of the current magnitude and temperature on aging was simulated. Interestingly, the aging rate highly increases with decreasing and increasing temperature for the ranges of -5 °C-25 °C and 25 °C-60 °C, respectively.

  2. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  3. Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deller, Sean; Rabadi, Ghaith A.; Bell, Michael I.; Bowling, Shannon R.; Tolk, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

  4. A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose; Kulkarni, Chetan; Biswas, Gautam; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

  5. Comprehensive Equivalent Circuit Based Modeling and Model Based Management of Aged Lithium ion Batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tong, Shijie

    Energy storage is one of society's grand challenges for the 21st century. Lithium ion batteries (LIBs) are widely used in mobile devices, transportation, and stationary energy storages due to lowering cost combined with excellent power/energy density as well as cycle durability. The need for a battery management system (BMS) arises from a demand to improve cycle life, assure safety, and optimize the full pack performance. In this work, we proposed a model based battery on-line state of charge (SoC) and state of health (SoH) estimator for LIBs. The estimator incorporates a comprehensive Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) as reference, an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) as state observer, a Recursive Least Square (RLS) algorithm as parameter identifier, and Parameter Varying Approach (PVA) based optimization algorithms for the parameter function regressions. The developed adaptive estimator was applied to a 10kW smart grid energy storage application using retired electric vehicle batteries. The estimator exhibits a high numerical efficiency as well as an excellent accuracy in estimating SoC and SoH. The estimator also provides a novel method to optimize the correlation between battery open circuit voltage (OCV) and SoC, which further improves states estimation accuracy.

  6. In vitro 3-D model based on extending time of culture for studying chronological epidermis aging.

    PubMed

    Dos Santos, Morgan; Metral, Elodie; Boher, Aurélie; Rousselle, Patricia; Thepot, Amélie; Damour, Odile

    2015-09-01

    Skin aging is a complex phenomenon in which several mechanisms operate simultaneously. Among them, intrinsic aging is a time-dependent process, which leads to gradual skin changes affecting its structure and function such as thinning down of both epidermal and dermal compartments and a flattening and fragility of the dermo-epidermal junction. Today, several approaches have been proposed for the generation of aged skin in vitro, including skin explants from aged donors and three-dimensional skin equivalent treated by aging-inducing chemical compounds or engineered with human cells isolated from aged donors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new in vitro model of aging based on skin equivalent demonstrating the same phenotypic changes that were observed in chronological aging. By using prolonged culture as a proxy for cellular aging, we extended to 120 days the culture time of a skin equivalent model based on collagen-glycosaminoglycan-chitosan porous polymer and engineered with human skin cells from photo-protected sites of young donors. Morphological, immunohistological and ultrastructural analysis at different time points of the culture allowed characterizing the phenotypic changes observed in our model in comparison to samples of non photo-exposed normal human skin from different ages. We firstly confirmed that long-term cultured skin equivalents are still morphologically consistent and functionally active even after 120 days of culture. However, similar to in vivo chronological skin aging a significant decrease of the epidermis thickness as well as the number of keratinocyte expressing proliferation marker Ki67 are observed in extended culture time skin equivalent. Epidermal differentiation markers loricrin, filaggrin, involucrin and transglutaminase, also strongly decreased. Ultrastructural analysis of basement membrane showed typical features of aged skin such as duplication of lamina densa and alterations of hemidesmosomes. Moreover, the

  7. The development of a ductility-based aging model for low temperature aged U-6Nb alloy

    SciTech Connect

    Bridges, B

    2005-03-24

    This study focuses on the ductility evaluation of low-temperature (100 and 200 C) aged U-6Nb alloy. The objective is to develop a ductility-based aging model to improve lifetime prediction for weapon components in the stockpile environment. Literature review shows that the work hardening n-value and the strain-rate hardening mvalue are the two most important metallurgical factors for the uniform and the post-uniform (necking) ductility control, respectively. Unfortunately, both n and m values of the U-6Nb alloy are lacking. The study shows that the total ductility of U-6Nb is dominated by the uniform ductility, which deteriorates in both 100 C and 200 C aging. Further analysis shows that the uniform ductility correlates well with the work hardening n-value of the later stage deformation in which dislocation-slip is the mechanism. The kinetics of the loss of uniform ductility and the associated reduction in work-hardening n-value in low temperature aging will be used for the development of a ductility-based aging model. The necking ductility appears to be a minor but significant factor in the total ductility of U-6Nb. It does not show a clear trend due to large data scatter. The uncertain nature of necking failure may always hinder a reliable measurement of necking ductility. Consequently, a precise measurement of strain-rate hardening m-value could be a viable alternative to model the metallurgical contribution to the necking ductility. The conventional strain rate step-change method and the ABI (Automated-Ball-Indentation) test both show promising result in m-value measurement.

  8. COMPONENT DEGRADATION SUSCEPTIBILITIES AS THE BASES FOR MODELING REACTOR AGING RISK

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Toyooka, Michael Y.

    2010-07-18

    The extension of nuclear power plant operating licenses beyond 60 years in the United States will be necessary if we are to meet national energy needs while addressing the issues of carbon and climate. Characterizing the operating risks associated with aging reactors is problematic because the principal tool for risk-informed decision-making, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is not ideally-suited to addressing aging systems. The components most likely to drive risk in an aging reactor - the passives - receive limited treatment in PRA, and furthermore, standard PRA methods are based on the assumption of stationary failure rates: a condition unlikely to be met in an aging system. A critical barrier to modeling passives aging on the wide scale required for a PRA is that there is seldom sufficient field data to populate parametric failure models, and nor is there the availability of practical physics models to predict out-year component reliability. The methodology described here circumvents some of these data and modeling needs by using materials degradation metrics, integrated with conventional PRA models, to produce risk importance measures for specific aging mechanisms and component types. We suggest that these measures have multiple applications, from the risk-screening of components to the prioritization of materials research.

  9. Lens opacity based modelling of the age-related straylight increase.

    PubMed

    Rozema, Jos J; Sanchez, Victoria; Artal, Natalia; Gramajo, Ana L; Torres, Eduardo; Luna, Jose D; Iribarren, Rafael; Tassignon, Marie-José; Juarez, Claudio P

    2015-12-01

    This work studies ethnic and geographical differences in the age-related straylight increase by means of a stochastic model and unpublished lens opacity data of 559 residents of Villa Maria (Argentina), as well as data of 912 Indonesian subjects published previously by Husain et al. For both cohorts the prevalence of each type and grade of lens opacity was determined as a function of age, from which a stochastic model was derived capable of simulating the lens opacity prevalence for both populations. These simulated lens opacity data were then converted to estimated straylight by means of an equation derived from previously recorded data of 107 eyes with varying degrees of cataract. Based on these opacity templates 2500 random sets of subject age and lens opacity data were generated by the stochastic model for each dataset, from which estimated straylight could be calculated. For the Argentinian data the estimated straylight was found to closely resemble the published models for age-related straylight increase. For younger eyes the straylight variation of the model was the same as what was previously published (in both cases ±0.200logunits), which doubled in size for older eyes. For the Indonesian data, however, this age-related straylight increase was found to be fundamentally different from the published age model. This suggests that current normative curves for age-related straylight increase may not always be appropriate for non-European populations, and that the inter-individual straylight variations in young, healthy eyes may possibly be due to variations in lens opacities.

  10. Predicting Age-Appropriate Pharmacokinetics of Six Volatile Organic Compounds in the Rat Utilizing Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    The capability of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models to incorporate age-appropriate physiological and chemical-specific parameters was utilized to predict changes in internal dosimetry for six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) across different ages of rats.

  11. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schiff, C.J.; Kaufman, D.S.; Wallace, K.L.; Werner, A.; Ku, T.-L.; Brown, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS 14C ages, along with the 137Cs and 210Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of the core, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The selected age model is based on a mixed-effect regression that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages ??105 yr (95% confidence intervals). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7/500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of one every 130 yr. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modeled tephra ages from lake sediments, base of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    Schiff, C J; Kaufman, D S; Wallace, K L; Werner, A; Ku, T L; Brown, T A

    2007-02-25

    A 5.6-m-long lake sediment core from Bear Lake, Alaska, located 22 km southeast of Redoubt Volcano, contains 67 tephra layers deposited over the last 8750 cal yr, comprising 15% of the total thickness of recovered sediment. Using 12 AMS {sup 14}C ages, along with the {sup 137}Cs and {sup 210}Pb activities of recent sediment, we evaluated different models to determine the age-depth relation of sediment, and to determine the age of each tephra deposit. The age model is based on a cubic smooth spline function that was passed through the adjusted tephra-free depth of each dated layer. The estimated age uncertainty of the 67 tephras averages {+-} 105 yr (1{sigma}). Tephra-fall frequency at Bear Lake was among the highest during the past 500 yr, with eight tephras deposited compared to an average of 3.7 per 500 yr over the last 8500 yr. Other periods of increased tephra fall occurred 2500-3500, 4500-5000, and 7000-7500 cal yr. Our record suggests that Bear Lake experienced extended periods (1000-2000 yr) of increased tephra fall separated by shorter periods (500-1000 yr) of apparent quiescence. The Bear Lake sediment core affords the most comprehensive tephrochronology from the base of the Redoubt Volcano to date, with an average tephra-fall frequency of once every 130 yr.

  13. Predicting Age-appropriate Pharmacokinetics of Six Volatile Organic Compounds in the Rat Utilizing Physiologically-based Pharmacokinetic Modeling (T)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The capability of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to incorporate ageappropriate physiological and chemical-specific parameters was utilized in this study to predict changes in internal dosimetry for six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) across different ages o...

  14. PREDICTING AGE-DEPENDENT PHARMACOKINETICS OF SIX VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS UTILIZING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING OF RAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, age-appropriate physiological and chemical-specific parameters were incorporated into a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict changes in internal dosimetry for six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) across different lifestages of the rat and ...

  15. How does aging affect recognition-based inference? A hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Horn, Sebastian S; Pachur, Thorsten; Mata, Rui

    2015-01-01

    The recognition heuristic (RH) is a simple strategy for probabilistic inference according to which recognized objects are judged to score higher on a criterion than unrecognized objects. In this article, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of the multinomial r-model is applied to measure use of the RH on the individual participant level and to re-evaluate differences between younger and older adults' strategy reliance across environments. Further, it is explored how individual r-model parameters relate to alternative measures of the use of recognition and other knowledge, such as adherence rates and indices from signal-detection theory (SDT). Both younger and older adults used the RH substantially more often in an environment with high than low recognition validity, reflecting adaptivity in strategy use across environments. In extension of previous analyses (based on adherence rates), hierarchical modeling revealed that in an environment with low recognition validity, (a) older adults had a stronger tendency than younger adults to rely on the RH and (b) variability in RH use between individuals was larger than in an environment with high recognition validity; variability did not differ between age groups. Further, the r-model parameters correlated moderately with an SDT measure expressing how well people can discriminate cases where the RH leads to a correct vs. incorrect inference; this suggests that the r-model and the SDT measures may offer complementary insights into the use of recognition in decision making. In conclusion, younger and older adults are largely adaptive in their application of the RH, but cognitive aging may be associated with an increased tendency to rely on this strategy.

  16. Development of a lifetime prediction model for lithium-ion batteries based on extended accelerated aging test data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ecker, Madeleine; Gerschler, Jochen B.; Vogel, Jan; Käbitz, Stefan; Hust, Friedrich; Dechent, Philipp; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2012-10-01

    Battery lifetime prognosis is a key requirement for successful market introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles. This work aims at the development of a lifetime prediction approach based on an aging model for lithium-ion batteries. A multivariable analysis of a detailed series of accelerated lifetime experiments representing typical operating conditions in hybrid electric vehicle is presented. The impact of temperature and state of charge on impedance rise and capacity loss is quantified. The investigations are based on a high-power NMC/graphite lithium-ion battery with good cycle lifetime. The resulting mathematical functions are physically motivated by the occurring aging effects and are used for the parameterization of a semi-empirical aging model. An impedance-based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model to simulate the dynamic interaction between aging of the battery and the thermal as well as electric behavior. Based on these models different drive cycles and management strategies can be analyzed with regard to their impact on lifetime. It is an important tool for vehicle designers and for the implementation of business models. A key contribution of the paper is the parameterization of the aging model by experimental data, while aging simulation in the literature usually lacks a robust empirical foundation.

  17. A Microphysics-Based Black Carbon Aging Scheme in a Global Chemical Transport Model: Constraints from HIPPO Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, C.; Li, Q.; Liou, K. N.; Qi, L.; Tao, S.; Schwarz, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Black carbon (BC) aging significantly affects its distributions and radiative properties, which is an important uncertainty source in estimating BC climatic effects. Global models often use a fixed aging timescale for the hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic BC conversion or a simple parameterization. We have developed and implemented a microphysics-based BC aging scheme that accounts for condensation and coagulation processes into a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Model results are systematically evaluated by comparing with the HIPPO observations across the Pacific (67°S-85°N) during 2009-2011. We find that the microphysics-based scheme substantially increases the BC aging rate over source regions as compared with the fixed aging timescale (1.2 days), due to the condensation of sulfate and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and coagulation with pre-existing hydrophilic aerosols. However, the microphysics-based scheme slows down BC aging over Polar regions where condensation and coagulation are rather weak. We find that BC aging is primarily dominated by condensation process that accounts for ~75% of global BC aging, while the coagulation process is important over source regions where a large amount of pre-existing aerosols are available. Model results show that the fixed aging scheme tends to overestimate BC concentrations over the Pacific throughout the troposphere by a factor of 2-5 at different latitudes, while the microphysics-based scheme reduces the discrepancies by up to a factor of 2, particularly in the middle troposphere. The microphysics-based scheme developed in this work decreases BC column total concentrations at all latitudes and seasons, especially over tropical regions, leading to large improvement in model simulations. We are presently analyzing the impact of this scheme on global BC budget and lifetime, quantifying its uncertainty associated with key parameters, and investigating the effects of heterogeneous chemical oxidation on BC aging.

  18. Towards A Model-Based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction methodology for electrolytic capacitors is presented. This methodology is based on the Kalman filter framework and an empirical degradation model. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. We present here also, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses. The data obtained in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors. In addition, the use degradation progression data from accelerated aging, provides an avenue for validation of applications of the Kalman filter based prognostics methods typically used for remaining useful life predictions in other applications.

  19. Touchscreen-based cognitive tasks reveal age-related impairment in a primate aging model, the grey mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus).

    PubMed

    Joly, Marine; Ammersdörfer, Sandra; Schmidtke, Daniel; Zimmermann, Elke

    2014-01-01

    Mouse lemurs are suggested to represent promising novel non-human primate models for aging research. However, standardized and cross-taxa cognitive testing methods are still lacking. Touchscreen-based testing procedures have proven high stimulus control and reliability in humans and rodents. The aim of this study was to adapt these procedures to mouse lemurs, thereby exploring the effect of age. We measured appetitive learning and cognitive flexibility of two age groups by applying pairwise visual discrimination (PD) and reversal learning (PDR) tasks. On average, mouse lemurs needed 24 days of training before starting with the PD task. Individual performances in PD and PDR tasks correlate significantly, suggesting that individual learning performance is unrelated to the respective task. Compared to the young, aged mouse lemurs showed impairments in both PD and PDR tasks. They needed significantly more trials to reach the task criteria. A much higher inter-individual variation in old than in young adults was revealed. Furthermore, in the PDR task, we found a significantly higher perseverance in aged compared to young adults, indicating an age-related deficit in cognitive flexibility. This study presents the first touchscreen-based data on the cognitive skills and age-related dysfunction in mouse lemurs and provides a unique basis to study mechanisms of inter-individual variation. It furthermore opens exciting perspectives for comparative approaches in aging, personality, and evolutionary research.

  20. A holistic aging model for Li(NiMnCo)O2 based 18650 lithium-ion batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmalstieg, Johannes; Käbitz, Stefan; Ecker, Madeleine; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2014-07-01

    Knowledge on lithium-ion battery aging and lifetime estimation is a fundamental aspect for successful market introduction in high-priced goods like electric mobility. This paper illustrates the parameterization of a holistic aging model from accelerated aging tests. More than 60 cells of the same type are tested to analyze different impact factors. In calendar aging tests three temperatures and various SOC are applied to the batteries. For cycle aging tests especially different cycle depths and mean SOC are taken into account. Capacity loss and resistance increase are monitored as functions of time and charge throughput during the tests. From these data physical based functions are obtained, giving a mathematical description of aging. To calculate the stress factors like temperature or voltage, an impedance based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model. The model accepts power and current profiles as input, furthermore an ambient air temperature profile can be applied. Various drive cycles and battery management strategies can be tested and optimized using the lifetime prognosis of this tool. With the validation based on different realistic driving profiles and temperatures, a robust foundation is provided.

  1. Evolution of the rate of biological aging using a phenotype based computational model.

    PubMed

    Kittas, Aristotelis

    2010-10-07

    In this work I introduce a simple model to study how natural selection acts upon aging, which focuses on the viability of each individual. It is able to reproduce the Gompertz law of mortality and can make predictions about the relation between the level of mutation rates (beneficial/deleterious/neutral), age at reproductive maturity and the degree of biological aging. With no mutations, a population with low age at reproductive maturity R stabilizes at higher density values, while with mutations it reaches its maximum density, because even for large pre-reproductive periods each individual evolves to survive to maturity. Species with very short pre-reproductive periods can only tolerate a small number of detrimental mutations. The probabilities of detrimental (P(d)) or beneficial (P(b)) mutations are demonstrated to greatly affect the process. High absolute values produce peaks in the viability of the population over time. Mutations combined with low selection pressure move the system towards weaker phenotypes. For low values in the ratio P(d)/P(b), the speed at which aging occurs is almost independent of R, while higher values favor significantly species with high R. The value of R is critical to whether the population survives or dies out. The aging rate is controlled by P(d) and P(b) and the amount of the viability of each individual is modified, with neutral mutations allowing the system more "room" to evolve. The process of aging in this simple model is revealed to be fairly complex, yielding a rich variety of results.

  2. Assessment of a ground water flow model of the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, using carbon-14-based ages and paleohydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.E.; Buapeng, S.

    1996-01-01

    A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age is corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the

  3. Assessment Of A Groundwater Flow Model Of The Bangkok Basin, Thailand, Using Carbon-14-Based Ages And Paleohydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanford, Ward E.; Buapeng, Somkid

    1996-04-01

    A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the timing

  4. Linking a modified EPIC-based growth model (UPGM) with a component-based watershed model (AGES-W)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural models and decision support systems (DSS) for assessing water use and management are increasingly being applied to diverse geographic regions at different scales. This requires models that can simulate different crops, however, very few plant growth models are available that “easily” ...

  5. Evidence-Based Systematic Review: Effects of Different Service Delivery Models on Communication Outcomes for Elementary School-Age Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cirrin, Frank M.; Schooling, Tracy L.; Nelson, Nickola W.; Diehl, Sylvia F.; Flynn, Perry F.; Staskowski, Maureen; Torrey, T. Zoann; Adamczyk, Deborah F.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to conduct an evidence-based systematic review (EBSR) of peer-reviewed articles from the last 30 years about the effect of different service delivery models on speech-language intervention outcomes for elementary school-age students. Method: A computer search of electronic databases was conducted to…

  6. Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  7. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

  8. Testing Models of Psychopathology in Preschool-aged Children Using a Structured Interview-based Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Dougherty, Lea R.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Carlson, Gabrielle A.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2014-01-01

    A number of studies have found that broadband internalizing and externalizing factors provide a parsimonious framework for understanding the structure of psychopathology across childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. However, few of these studies have examined psychopathology in young children, and several recent studies have found support for alternative models, including a bi-factor model with common and specific factors. The present study used parents’ (typically mothers’) reports on a diagnostic interview in a community sample of 3-year old children (n=541; 53.9 % male) to compare the internalizing-externalizing latent factor model with a bi-factor model. The bi-factor model provided a better fit to the data. To test the concurrent validity of this solution, we examined associations between this model and paternal reports and laboratory observations of child temperament. The internalizing factor was associated with low levels of surgency and high levels of fear; the externalizing factor was associated with high levels of surgency and disinhibition and low levels of effortful control; and the common factor was associated with high levels of surgency and negative affect and low levels of effortful control. These results suggest that psychopathology in preschool-aged children may be explained by a single, common factor influencing nearly all disorders and unique internalizing and externalizing factors. These findings indicate that shared variance across internalizing and externalizing domains is substantial and are consistent with recent suggestions that emotion regulation difficulties may be a common vulnerability for a wide array of psychopathology. PMID:24652485

  9. A physics based reduced order aging model for lithium-ion cells with phase change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gambhire, Priya; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Khandelwal, Ashish; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Yeo, Taejung; Doo, Seokgwang

    2014-12-01

    The electrochemical model has the potential to provide a robust and accurate battery management system, but is not the preferred choice as it involves solving non-linear, coupled partial differential equations. In the present work, a model order reduction of the complete electrochemical model for a lithium ion cell with phase change electrodes is carried out. The phase change phenomenon is described using a simple, concentration-dependent diffusivity derived from mixture rules. This reduced order model (ROM) is validated with experimental data from literature. The applicability of the model to capture the atypical behavior of the phase change electrode system is demonstrated. Using the cell response from ROM, charge-discharge asymmetry and path dependence in a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cell are explored in detail. In addition, side reaction kinetics and solid electrolyte interphase formation are included in the ROM framework to enhance its capability to predict cell aging. The model is used to investigate capacity losses occurring in a phase change electrode cell. Insights from these results are used to suggest cell operating guidelines for maximizing utilization.

  10. Testing models of psychopathology in preschool-aged children using a structured interview-based assessment.

    PubMed

    Olino, Thomas M; Dougherty, Lea R; Bufferd, Sara J; Carlson, Gabrielle A; Klein, Daniel N

    2014-10-01

    A number of studies have found that broadband internalizing and externalizing factors provide a parsimonious framework for understanding the structure of psychopathology across childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. However, few of these studies have examined psychopathology in young children, and several recent studies have found support for alternative models, including a bi-factor model with common and specific factors. The present study used parents' (typically mothers') reports on a diagnostic interview in a community sample of 3-year old children (n = 541; 53.9 % male) to compare the internalizing-externalizing latent factor model with a bi-factor model. The bi-factor model provided a better fit to the data. To test the concurrent validity of this solution, we examined associations between this model and paternal reports and laboratory observations of child temperament. The internalizing factor was associated with low levels of surgency and high levels of fear; the externalizing factor was associated with high levels of surgency and disinhibition and low levels of effortful control; and the common factor was associated with high levels of surgency and negative affect and low levels of effortful control. These results suggest that psychopathology in preschool-aged children may be explained by a single, common factor influencing nearly all disorders and unique internalizing and externalizing factors. These findings indicate that shared variance across internalizing and externalizing domains is substantial and are consistent with recent suggestions that emotion regulation difficulties may be a common vulnerability for a wide array of psychopathology.

  11. DEGRADATION SUSCEPTIBILITY METRICS AS THE BASES FOR BAYESIAN RELIABILITY MODELS OF AGING PASSIVE COMPONENTS AND LONG-TERM REACTOR RISK

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Toyooka, Michael Y.; Ford, Benjamin E.

    2011-07-17

    Conventional probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are not well-suited to addressing long-term reactor operations. Since passive structures, systems and components are among those for which refurbishment or replacement can be least practical, they might be expected to contribute increasingly to risk in an aging plant. Yet, passives receive limited treatment in PRAs. Furthermore, PRAs produce only snapshots of risk based on the assumption of time-independent component failure rates. This assumption is unlikely to be valid in aging systems. The treatment of aging passive components in PRA does present challenges. First, service data required to quantify component reliability models are sparse, and this problem is exacerbated by the greater data demands of age-dependent reliability models. A compounding factor is that there can be numerous potential degradation mechanisms associated with the materials, design, and operating environment of a given component. This deepens the data problem since the risk-informed management of materials degradation and component aging will demand an understanding of the long-term risk significance of individual degradation mechanisms. In this paper we describe a Bayesian methodology that integrates the metrics of materials degradation susceptibility being developed under the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Proactive Management of Materials of Degradation Program with available plant service data to estimate age-dependent passive component reliabilities. Integration of these models into conventional PRA will provide a basis for materials degradation management informed by the predicted long-term operational risk.

  12. A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

    PubMed

    Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

    2013-09-01

    The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included.

  13. Documenting Bronze Age Akrotiri on Thera Using Laser Scanning, Image-Based Modelling and Geophysical Prospection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinks, I.; Wallner, M.; Kucera, M.; Verhoeven, G.; Torrejón Valdelomar, J.; Löcker, K.; Nau, E.; Sevara, C.; Aldrian, L.; Neubauer, E.; Klein, M.

    2017-02-01

    The excavated architecture of the exceptional prehistoric site of Akrotiri on the Greek island of Thera/Santorini is endangered by gradual decay, damage due to accidents, and seismic shocks, being located on an active volcano in an earthquake-prone area. Therefore, in 2013 and 2014 a digital documentation project has been conducted with support of the National Geographic Society in order to generate a detailed digital model of Akrotiri's architecture using terrestrial laser scanning and image-based modeling. Additionally, non-invasive geophysical prospection has been tested in order to investigate its potential to explore and map yet buried archaeological remains. This article describes the project and the generated results.

  14. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water. PMID:27920953

  15. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

    2016-01-01

    The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

  16. Thymulin-based gene therapy and pituitary function in animal models of aging.

    PubMed

    Reggiani, Paula C; Poch, Brenda; Cónsole, Gloria M; Rimoldi, Omar J; Schwerdt, Jose I; Tüngler, Victoria; Garcia-Bravo, Margarita M; Dardenne, Mireille; Goya, Rodolfo G

    2011-01-01

    Thymulin is a thymic hormone exclusively produced by the thymic epithelial cells. After its discovery and initial characterization in the 1970s, it was demonstrated that thymulin production and secretion is strongly influenced by the neuroendocrine system. Conversely, a growing core of information, to be reviewed here, points to thymulin as a hypophysiotropic peptide. Additionally, thymulin was shown to possess anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties in the brain. In recent years, a synthetic DNA sequence coding for a biologically active analog of thymulin, metFTS, was constructed and cloned in different adenoviral vectors. These include bidirectional regulatable Tet-Off vector systems that simultaneously express metFTS and green fluorescent protein and that can be downregulated reversibly by the addition of the antibiotic doxycycline. A number of recent studies suggest that thymulin gene therapy may be a suitable therapeutic strategy to prevent some of the endocrine and reproductive alterations that typically appear in congenitally athymic (nude) mice, taken as a suitable model of neuroendocrine and reproductive aging. The present article briefly reviews the literature on the physiology of the thymulin-pituitary axis as well as on the new molecular tools available to exploit the therapeutic potential of thymulin.

  17. Thymulin-Based Gene Therapy and Pituitary Function in Animal Models of Aging

    PubMed Central

    Reggiani, Paula C.; Poch, Brenda; Cónsole, Gloria M.; Rimoldi, Omar J.; Schwerdt, Jose I.; Tüngler, Victoria; Garcia-Bravo, Margarita M.; Dardenne, Mireille; Goya, Rodolfo G.

    2011-01-01

    Thymulin is a thymic hormone exclusively produced by the thymic epithelial cells. After its discovery and initial characterization in the 1970s, it was demonstrated that thymulin production and secretion is strongly influenced by the neuroendocrine system. Conversely, a growing core of information, to be reviewed here, points to thymulin as a hypophysiotropic peptide. Additionally, thymulin was shown to possess anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties in the brain. In recent years, a synthetic DNA sequence coding for a biologically active analog of thymulin, metFTS, was constructed and cloned in different adenoviral vectors. These include bidirectional regulatable Tet-Off vector systems that simultaneously express metFTS and green fluorescent protein and that can be downregulated reversibly by the addition of the antibiotic doxycycline. A number of recent studies suggest that thymulin gene therapy may be a suitable therapeutic strategy to prevent some of the endocrine and reproductive alterations that typically appear in congenitally athymic (nude) mice, taken as a suitable model of neuroendocrine and reproductive aging. The present article briefly reviews the literature on the physiology of the thymulin-pituitary axis as well as on the new molecular tools available to exploit the therapeutic potential of thymulin. PMID:21952687

  18. An Age-Dependent Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Model for the Organophosphorus Insecticide Chlorpyrifos in the Preweanling Rat

    SciTech Connect

    Timchalk, Chuck; Kousba, Ahmed A.; Poet, Torka S.

    2007-08-01

    Juvenile rats are more susceptible than adults to the acute toxicity of organophosphorus insecticides like chlorpyrifos (CPF). Age- and dose-dependent differences in metabolism may be responsible. Of importance is CYP450 activation and detoxification of CPF to chlorpyrifos-oxon (CPF-oxon) and trichloropyridinol (TCP), as well as B-esterase (cholinesterase; ChE) and A-esterase (PON-1) detoxification of CPF-oxon to TCP. In the current study, a modified physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model incorporating age-dependent changes in CYP450, PON-1, and tissue ChE levels for rats was developed. In this model, age was used as a dependent function to estimate body weight which was then used to allometrically scale both metabolism and tissue ChE levels. Model simulations suggest that preweanling rats are particularly sensitive to CPF toxicity, with levels of CPF-oxon in blood and brain disproportionately increasing, relative to the response in adult rats. This age-dependent non-linear increase in CPF-oxon concentration may potentially result from the depletion of non-target B-esterases, and a lower PON-1 metabolic capacity in younger animals. These results indicate that the PBPK/PD model behaves consistently with the general understanding of CPF toxicity, pharmacokinetics and tissue ChE inhibition in neonatal and adult rats. Hence, this model represents an important starting point for developing a computational model to assess the neurotoxic potential of environmentally relevant organophosphate exposures in infants and children.

  19. An updated model for nitrate uptake modelling in plants. II. Assessment of active root involvement in nitrate uptake based on integrated root system age: measured versus modelled outputs

    PubMed Central

    Malagoli, Philippe; Le Deunff, Erwan

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims An updated version of a mechanistic structural–functional model was developed to predict nitrogen (N) uptake throughout the growth cycle by a crop of winter oilseed rape, Brassica napus, grown under field conditions. Methods The functional component of the model derives from a revisited conceptual framework that combines the thermodynamic Flow–Force interpretation of nitrate uptake isotherms and environmental and in planta effects on nitrate influx. Estimation of the root biomass (structural component) is based upon a combination of root mapping along the soil depth profile in the field and a relationship between the specific root length and external nitrate concentration. The root biomass contributing actively to N uptake was determined by introduction of an integrated root system age that allows assignment of a root absorption capacity at a specific age of the root. Key Results Simulations were well matched to measured data of N taken up under field conditions for three levels of N fertilization. The model outputs indicated that the two topsoil layers (0–30 and 30–60 cm) contained 75–88 % of the total root length and biomass, and accounted for 90–95 % of N taken up at harvest. Conclusions This conceptual framework provides a model of nitrate uptake that is able to respond to external nitrate fluctuations at both functional and structural levels. PMID:24709791

  20. A cognitive-based model of tool use in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Lesourd, Mathieu; Baumard, Josselin; Jarry, Christophe; Le Gall, Didier; Osiurak, François

    2016-08-11

    While several cognitive domains have been widely investigated in the field of aging, the age-related effects on tool use are still an open issue and hardly any studies on tool use and aging is available. A significant body of literature has indicated that tool use skills might be supported by at least two different types of knowledge, namely, mechanical knowledge and semantic knowledge. However, neither the contribution of these kinds of knowledge to familiar tool use, nor the effects of aging on mechanical and semantic knowledge have been explored in normal aging. The aim of the present study was to fill this gap. To do so, 98 healthy elderly adults were presented with three tasks: a classical, familiar tool use task, a novel tool use task assessing mechanical knowledge, and a picture matching task assessing semantic knowledge. The results showed that aging has a negative impact on tool use tasks and on knowledge supporting tool use skills. We also found that aging did not impact mechanical and semantic knowledge in the same way, confirming the distinct nature of those forms of knowledge. Finally, our results stressed that mechanical and semantic knowledge are both involved in the ability to use familiar tools.

  1. Modelling of facial growth in Czech children based on longitudinal data: Age progression from 12 to 15 years using 3D surface models.

    PubMed

    Koudelová, Jana; Dupej, Ján; Brůžek, Jaroslav; Sedlak, Petr; Velemínská, Jana

    2015-03-01

    Dealing with the increasing number of long-term missing children and juveniles requires more precise and objective age progression techniques for the prediction of their current appearance. Our contribution includes detailed and real facial growth information used for modelling age progression during adolescence. This study was based on an evaluation of the overall 180 three-dimensional (3D) facial scans of Czech children (23 boys, 22 girls), which were longitudinally studied from 12 to 15 years of age and thus revealed the real growth-related changes. The boys underwent more marked changes compared with the girls, especially in the regions of the eyebrow ridges, nose and chin. Using modern geometric morphometric methods, together with their applications, we modelled the ageing and allometric trajectories for both sexes and simulated the age-progressed effects on facial scans. The facial parts that are important for facial recognition (eyes, nose, mouth and chin) all deviated less than 0.75mm, whereas the areas with the largest deviations were situated on the marginal parts of the face. The mean error between the predicted and real facial morphology obtained by modelling the children from 12 to 15 years of age was 1.92mm in girls and 1.86mm in boys. This study is beneficial for forensic artists as it reduces the subjectivity of age progression methods.

  2. Designing across ages: Multi-agent-based models and learning electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, Pratim

    Electricity is regarded as one of the most challenging topics for students at all levels -- middle school -- college (Cohen, Eylon, & Ganiel, 1983; Belcher & Olbert, 2003; Eylon & Ganiel, 1990; Steinberg et al., 1985). Several researchers have suggested that naive misconceptions about electricity stem from a deep incommensurability (Slotta & Chi, 2006; Chi, 2005) or incompatibility (Chi, Slotta & Leauw, 1994; Reiner, Slotta, Chi, & Resnick, 2000) between naive and expert knowledge structures. I first present an alternative theoretical framework that adopts an emergent levels-based perspective as proposed by Wilensky & Resnick (1999). From this perspective, macro-level phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as behavior of linear electric circuits, can be conceived of as emergent from simple, body-syntonic interactions between electrons and ions in a circuit. I argue that adopting such a perspective enables us to reconceive commonly noted misconceptions in electricity as behavioral evidences of "slippage between levels" -- i.e., these misconceptions appear when otherwise productive knowledge elements are sometimes inappropriately activated due to certain macro-level phenomenological cues only -- and, that the same knowledge elements when activated due to phenomenological cues at both micro- and macro-levels, can engender a deeper, expert-like understanding. I will then introduce NIELS (NetLogo Investigations In Electromagnetism, Sengupta & Wilensky, 2006, 2008, 2009), a low-threshold high-ceiling (LTHC) learning environment of multi-agent-based computational models that represent phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as the behavior of linear electric circuits, as emergent. I also present results from implementations of NIELS in 5th, 7th and 12th grade classrooms that show the following: (a) how leveraging certain "design elements" over others in NIELS models can create new phenomenological cues, which in turn can be

  3. Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

  4. Bias in Crustal Growth Models Based on age and Isotopic Composition of Detrital Zircon: The Role of Zircon Fertility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samson, S. D.

    2011-12-01

    Early models of continental crustal growth based on the ages of crystallization of granitoids were abandoned once it was understood that many silicic magmas form by remelting pre-existing crustal materials. Subsequent crustal evolution models focused on the age and whole-rock isotopic composition of granitoids or on the isotopic composition of fine-grained clastic sedimentary rocks; rare studies examined both igneous and sedimentary rock compositions. Recently there has been a resurgence of emphasizing major crustal growth events by compiling the ages of detrital zircon. This has led to interesting speculations, such as some supercontinent forming events represent the world's largest orogenies and periods of crustal growth, that there may have been significant hiatuses of crustal production in geologic time, and that there was episodicity in magma generation that is asynchronous with apparent growth peaks based on isotopic compositions of sedimentary rocks. Some workers have emphasized that the apparent trends observed in detrital zircon ages could be a function of selective preservation rather than a strict indication of the timing of major magmatic episodes. Others have noted that relying on ages of detrital crystals is equivalent to basing growth models on granitoid ages and does not discriminate between juvenile magmas and melts formed by complete crustal recycling. More sophisticated approaches involve dating detrital zircon crystals followed by determining their hafnium isotopic composition thereby assessing if the zircon crystallized from a juvenile or recycled magma. While this latter approach holds promise for constraining episodes of juvenile crustal construction it is based on the assumption that the abundance of detrital zircon of a certain age directly reflects the volume of magma generated at that time. In other words, the assumption is implicitly made that the 'zircon fertility' of most magmas is uniform. The assumption of uniform fertility is

  5. Modeled ground water age distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  6. Modeled ground water age distributions.

    PubMed

    Woolfenden, Linda R; Ginn, Timothy R

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  7. "Model age-based" and "copy when uncertain" biases in children's social learning of a novel task.

    PubMed

    Wood, Lara A; Harrison, Rachel A; Lucas, Amanda J; McGuigan, Nicola; Burdett, Emily R R; Whiten, Andrew

    2016-10-01

    Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N=140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children's continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of model.

  8. BUILDING REALISTIC BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS FOR PREDICTING SUSCEPTIBILITY IN THE AGED POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Detoxification and elimination of xenobiotics is a major function of the liver and is important in maintaining the metabolic homeostasis of the organism. The degree to which aging affects hepatic metabolism is not known. The expression of XMEs, in part, determines the fate of the...

  9. Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose; Saxena, Abhinav; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai F.

    2011-01-01

    An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

  10. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  11. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  12. Effect of Age on Complexity and Causality of the Cardiovascular Control: Comparison between Model-Based and Model-Free Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Porta, Alberto; Faes, Luca; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; Bassani, Tito; Nollo, Giandomenico; Perseguini, Natália Maria; Milan, Juliana; Minatel, Vinícius; Borghi-Silva, Audrey; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.

    2014-01-01

    The proposed approach evaluates complexity of the cardiovascular control and causality among cardiovascular regulatory mechanisms from spontaneous variability of heart period (HP), systolic arterial pressure (SAP) and respiration (RESP). It relies on construction of a multivariate embedding space, optimization of the embedding dimension and a procedure allowing the selection of the components most suitable to form the multivariate embedding space. Moreover, it allows the comparison between linear model-based (MB) and nonlinear model-free (MF) techniques and between MF approaches exploiting local predictability (LP) and conditional entropy (CE). The framework was applied to study age-related modifications of complexity and causality in healthy humans in supine resting (REST) and during standing (STAND). We found that: 1) MF approaches are more efficient than the MB method when nonlinear components are present, while the reverse situation holds in presence of high dimensional embedding spaces; 2) the CE method is the least powerful in detecting age-related trends; 3) the association of HP complexity on age suggests an impairment of cardiac regulation and response to STAND; 4) the relation of SAP complexity on age indicates a gradual increase of sympathetic activity and a reduced responsiveness of vasomotor control to STAND; 5) the association from SAP to HP on age during STAND reveals a progressive inefficiency of baroreflex; 6) the reduced connection from HP to SAP with age might be linked to the progressive exploitation of Frank-Starling mechanism at REST and to the progressive increase of peripheral resistances during STAND; 7) at REST the diminished association from RESP to HP with age suggests a vagal withdrawal and a gradual uncoupling between respiratory activity and heart; 8) the weakened connection from RESP to SAP with age might be related to the progressive increase of left ventricular thickness and vascular stiffness and to the gradual decrease of

  13. Evidence-Based Practice in an Age of Relativism: Toward a Model for Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNeill, Ted

    2006-01-01

    Evidence-based practice (EBP) is considered a hallmark of excellence in clinical practice. However, many social workers are uncertain about how to implement this approach to practice. EBP involves integrating clinical expertise and values with the best available evidence from systematic research while simultaneously considering the client's values…

  14. ALL AGES LEAD MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model for Lead in Children (version 0.99d) was released in March 1994, and has been widely accepted in the risk assessment community as a tool for implementing the site specific risk assessment process when the issue is childhood...

  15. [Deafness and aging: studies in experimental models].

    PubMed

    Gil Loyzaga, Pablo E

    2002-01-01

    Since 1970 a progressive aging of the world population, mainly in the most developed countries, has been observed. Spain could have, around 2050, the most aged human population of the world. Therefore, scientist show an increasing interest on the study of the aging-related pathologies (i.e. deafness linked to aging process: presbycusis). The deep analysis of the presbycusis physiopathology will be based on the study of patients, but also on animal models. This report summarizes our results obtained on the analysis of the deafness linked to aging on the C57/BL/6 mice.

  16. The Penna Model of Biological Aging

    PubMed Central

    Stauffer, D.

    2007-01-01

    This review deals with computer simulation of biological aging, particularly with the Penna model of 1995. They are based on the mutation accumulation theory of half a century ago. The results agree well with demographical reality, and also with the seemingly contradictory influence of predators on the aging of prey. PMID:20066128

  17. Radiation-induced aging of PDMS Elastomer TR-55: a summary of constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models

    SciTech Connect

    Maiti, A; Weisgraber, T. H.; Dinh, L. N.

    2016-11-16

    Filled and cross-linked elastomeric rubbers are versatile network materials with a multitude of applications ranging from artificial organs and biomedical devices to cushions, coatings, adhesives, interconnects, and seismic-isolation-, thermal-, and electrical barriers External factors like mechanical stress, temperature fluctuations, or radiation are known to create chemical changes in such materials that can directly affect the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of the polymer between cross-links and alter the structural and mechanical properties. From a Materials Science point of view it is highly desirable to understand, effect, and manipulate such property changes in a controlled manner. In this report we summarize our modeling efforts on a polysiloxane elastomer TR-55, which is an important component in several of our systems, and representative of a wide class of filled rubber materials. The primary aging driver in this work has been γ-radiation, and a variety of modeling approaches have been employed, including constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models. The work utilizes diverse experimental data, including mechanical stress-strain and compression set measurements, as well as MWD measurements using multiquantum NMR.

  18. Dynamic stock and end-of-life flow identification based on the internal cycle model and mean-age monitoring.

    PubMed

    Tsiliyannis, Christos Aristeides

    2014-07-01

    Planning of end-of-life (EoL) product take-back systems and sizing of dismantling and recycling centers, entails the EoL flow (EoLF) that originates from the product dynamic stock (DS). Several uncertain factors (economic, technological, health, social and environmental) render both the EoLF and the remaining stock uncertain. Early losses of products during use due to biodegradation, wear and uncertain factors such as withdrawals and exports of used, may diminish the stock and the EoLF. Life expectancy prediction methods are static, ignoring early losses and inapt under dynamic conditions. Existing dynamic methods, either consider a single uncertain factor (e.g. GDP) approximately or heuristically modelled and ignore other factors that may become dominant, or assume cognizance of DS and of the center axis of the EoL exit distribution that are unknown for most products. As a result, reliable dynamic EoLF prediction for both durables and consumer end-products is still challenging. The present work develops an identification method for estimating the early loss and DS and predicting the dynamic EoLF, based on available input data (production+net imports) and on sampled measurements of the stock mean-age and the EoLF mean-age. The mean ages are scaled quantities, slowly varying, even under dynamic conditions and can be reliably determined, even from small size and/or frequent samples. The method identifies the early loss sequence, as well as the center axis and spread of the EoL exit distribution, which are subsequently used to determine the DS and EoLF profiles, enabling consistent and reliable predictions.

  19. Aging Research Using Mouse Models.

    PubMed

    Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L; Anderson, Laura C; Sheehan, Susan; Hill, Warren G; Chang, Bo; Churchill, Gary A; Chesler, Elissa J; Korstanje, Ron; Peters, Luanne L

    2015-06-01

    Despite the dramatic increase in human lifespan over the past century, there remains pronounced variability in "health-span," or the period of time in which one is generally healthy and free of disease. Much of the variability in health-span and lifespan is thought to be genetic in origin. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of aging and identifying ways to boost longevity is a primary goal in aging research. Here, we describe a pipeline of phenotypic assays for assessing mouse models of aging. This pipeline includes behavior/cognition testing, body composition analysis, and tests of kidney function, hematopoiesis, and immune function, as well as physical parameters. We also describe study design methods for assessing lifespan and health-span, and other important considerations when conducting aging research in the laboratory mouse. The tools and assays provided can assist researchers with understanding the correlative relationships between age-associated phenotypes and, ultimately, the role of specific genes in the aging process.

  20. Aging Research Using Mouse Models

    PubMed Central

    Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L.; Anderson, Laura; Sheehan, Susan; Hill, Warren G.; Chang, Bo; Churchill, Gary A.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Korstanje, Ron; Peters, Luanne L.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the dramatic increase in human lifespan over the past century, there remains pronounced variability in “health-span”, or the period of time in which one is generally healthy and free of disease. Much of the variability in health-span and lifespan is thought to be genetic in origin. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of aging and identifying ways to boost longevity is a primary goal in aging research. Here, we describe a pipeline of phenotypic assays for assessing mouse models of aging. This pipeline includes behavior/cognition testing, body composition analysis, and tests of kidney function, hematopoiesis, immune function and physical parameters. We also describe study design methods for assessing lifespan and health-span, and other important considerations when conducting aging research in the laboratory mouse. The tools and assays provided can assist researchers with understanding the correlative relationships between age-associated phenotypes and, ultimately, the role of specific genes in the aging process. PMID:26069080

  1. Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models.

    PubMed

    Marinaccio, Alessandro; Montanaro, Fabio; Mastrantonio, Marina; Uccelli, Raffaella; Altavista, Pierluigi; Nesti, Massimo; Costantini, Adele Seniori; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2005-05-20

    Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union, until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until 1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid-1970s in some workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in 1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer mortality figures (1970-1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among Italian men in the next 30 years by age-cohort-period models and by a model based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis. Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800 mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012-2024. Results estimated using age-period-cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos consumption model.

  2. A Model of Spirituality for Ageing Muslims.

    PubMed

    Ahmad, Mahjabeen; Khan, Shamsul

    2016-06-01

    Spirituality's influence on general well-being and its association with healthy ageing has been studied extensively. However, a different perspective has to be brought in when dealing with spirituality issues of ageing Muslims. Central to this perspective is the intertwining of religion and spirituality in Islam. This article will contribute to the understanding of the nature of Islamic spirituality and its immense importance in the life of a practicing ageing Muslim. Consequently, it will help care providers to include appropriate spiritual care in the care repertoire of a Muslim care recipient. It is assumed that the framework for a model of spirituality based on Islamic religious beliefs would help contextualise the relationship between spirituality and ageing Muslims. Not only challenges, but also the opportunities that old age provides for charting the spiritual journey have underpinned this model.

  3. End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2016-01-01

    As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles.

  4. Multi-mutational model for cancer based on age-time patterns of radiation effects: 2. Biological aspects

    SciTech Connect

    Mendelsohn, M.L.; Pierce, P.A.

    1997-09-04

    Biological properties of relevance when modeling cancers induced in the atom bomb survivors include the wide distribution of the induced cancers across all organs, their biological indistinguishability from background cancers, their rates being proportional to background cancer rates, their rates steadily increasing over at least 50 years as the survivors age, and their radiation dose response being linear. We have successfully described this array of properties with a modified Armitage-Doll model using 5 to 6 somatic mutations, no intermediate growth, and the dose-related replacement of any one of these time-driven mutations by a radiation-induced mutation. Such a model is contrasted to prevailing models that use fewer mutations combined with intervening growth. While the rationale and effectiveness of our model is compelling for carcinogenesis in the atom bomb survivors, the lack of a promotional component may limit the generality of the model for other types of human carcinogenesis.

  5. USE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODEL FOR CHLOROFORM IN RATS TO DETERMINE AGE-RELATED TOXICITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    USE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC (PBPK) MODEL FOR CHLOROFORM IN RATS TO DETERMINE AGE-RELATED TOXICITY.
    CR Eklund, MV Evans, and JE Simmons. US EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD,PKB, Research Triangle Park, NC.

    Chloroform (CHCl3) is a disinfec...

  6. HUMTRN: documentation and verification for an ICRP-based age- and sex-specific human simulation model for radionuclide dose assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Wenzel, W.J.

    1984-06-01

    The dynamic human simulation model HUMTRN is designed specifically as a major module of BIOTRAN to integrate climatic, hydrologic, atmospheric, food crop, and herbivore simulation with human dietary and physiological characteristics, and metabolism and radionuclides to predict radiation doses to selected organs of both sexes in different age groups. The model is based on age- and weight-specific equations developed for predicting human radionuclide transport from metabolic and physical characteristics. These characteristics are modeled from studies documented by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP 23). HUMTRN allows cumulative doses from uranium or plutonium radionuclides to be predicted by modeling age-specific anatomical, physiological, and metabolic properties of individuals between 1 and 70 years of age and can track radiation exposure and radionuclide metabolism for any age group for specified daily or yearly time periods. The simulated daily dose integration of eight or more simultaneous air, water, and food intakes gives a new, comprehensive, dynamic picture of radionuclide intake, uptake, and hazard analysis for complex scenarios. A detailed example using site-specific data based on the Pantex studies is included for verification. 14 references, 24 figures, 10 tables.

  7. Interaction between age of irradiation and age of testing in the disruption of operant performance using a ground-based model for exposure to cosmic rays.

    PubMed

    Rabin, Bernard M; Joseph, James A; Shukitt-Hale, Barbara; Carrihill-Knoll, Kirsty L

    2012-02-01

    Previous research has shown a progressive deterioration in cognitive performance in rats exposed to (56)Fe particles as a function of age. The present experiment was designed to evaluate the effects of age of irradiation independently of the age of testing. Male Fischer-344 rats, 2, 7, 12, and 16 months of age, were exposed to 25-200 cGy of (56)Fe particles (1,000 MeV/n). Following irradiation, the rats were trained to make an operant response on an ascending fixed-ratio reinforcement schedule. When performance was evaluated as a function of both age of irradiation and testing, the results showed a significant effect of age on the dose needed to produce a performance decrement, such that older rats exposed to lower doses of (56)Fe particles showed a performance decrement compared to younger rats. When performance was evaluated as a function of age of irradiation with the age of testing held constant, the results indicated that age of irradiation was a significant factor influencing operant responding, such that older rats tested at similar ages and exposed to similar doses of (56)Fe particles showed similar performance decrements. The results are interpreted as indicating that the performance decrement is not a function of age per se, but instead is dependent upon an interaction between the age of irradiation, the age of testing, and exposure to HZE particles. The nature of these effects and how age of irradiation affects cognitive performance after an interval of 15 to 16 months remains to be established.

  8. Towards an Analytical Age-Dependent Model of Contrast Sensitivity Functions for an Ageing Society

    PubMed Central

    Joulan, Karine; Brémond, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) describes how the visibility of a grating depends on the stimulus spatial frequency. Many published CSF data have demonstrated that contrast sensitivity declines with age. However, an age-dependent analytical model of the CSF is not available to date. In this paper, we propose such an analytical CSF model based on visual mechanisms, taking into account the age factor. To this end, we have extended an existing model from Barten (1999), taking into account the dependencies of this model's optical and physiological parameters on age. Age-dependent models of the cones and ganglion cells densities, the optical and neural MTF, and optical and neural noise are proposed, based on published data. The proposed age-dependent CSF is finally tested against available experimental data, with fair results. Such an age-dependent model may be beneficial when designing real-time age-dependent image coding and display applications. PMID:26078994

  9. Interaction between age of irradiation and age of testing in the disruption of operant performance using a ground-based model for exposure to cosmic rays

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Exposure to HZE particles produces deficits in cognitive performance. While previous research has shown a progressive deterioration in cognitive performance in radiated rats as a function of age, the present experiment was designed to evaluate the effects of age of irradiation independently of the ...

  10. Conversion of GISP2-based sediment core age models to the GICC05 extended chronology for coherent spatial analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obrochta, Stephen; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Morén, Jan; Crowley, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Marine and lacustrine sediment-based paleoclimate records are often not comparable within the early to middle portion of the last glacial cycle. This is due in part to significant revisions over the past 15 years to the Greenland ice core chronologies commonly used to assign ages outside of the range of radiocarbon dating, which results in temporal offsets of up to 4,000 years between recently published and classical proxy data. Therefore, creation of a compatible chronology is required prior to analysis of the spatial and temporal nature of climate variability at multiple locations. This is accomplished with an automated mathematical function that updates GISP2-based chronologies to the newer, NGRIP GICC05 age scale between 8.24 and 103.74 ka b2k. The script uses, to the extent currently available, climate-independent volcanic synchronization of these two ice cores, supplemented by oxygen isotope alignment. Results of quantitative synthesis that fail to account for offset may produce spurious results.

  11. [Experimental models of human skin aging].

    PubMed

    Nikolakis, G; Zoschke, C; Makrantonaki, E; Hausmann, C; Schäfer-Korting, M; Zouboulis, C C

    2016-02-01

    The skin is a representative model for the study of human aging. Despite the high regenerative capacity of the skin, skin physiology changes over the course of life. Medical and cosmetic research is trying to prevent aging, to slow, to stop, or to reverse it. Effects of age-related DNA damage and of changing skin structure on pharmacological parameters are largely unknown. This review article summarizes the state of scientific knowledge in the field of experimental models of human skin aging and shows approaches to improve organotypic skin models, to develop predictive models of aging, and improve aging research.

  12. Simulating Statistical Power in Latent Growth Curve Modeling: A Strategy for Evaluating Age-Based Changes in Cognitive Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lindenberger, Ulman

    Variability across and within individuals is a fundamental property of adult age changes in behavior [20, 21, 24]. Some people seem young for their age, others seem old; shining examples of older individuals who maintained high levels of intellectual functioning well into very old age, such as Johann Wolfgang von Goethe or Sophocles, stand in contrast to individuals whose cognitive resources are depleted by the time they reach later adulthood. A similar contrast exists between different intellectual abilities. For example, if one looks at the speed needed to identify and discriminate between different percepts, one is likely to find monotonic decline after late adolescence and early adulthood.

  13. Predicting Plasma Concentrations of Bisphenol A in Children Younger Than 2 Years of Age after Typical Feeding Schedules, using a Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Model

    PubMed Central

    Edginton, Andrea N.; Ritter, Len

    2009-01-01

    Background Concerns have recently been raised regarding the safety of potential human exposure to bisphenol A (BPA), an industrial chemical found in some polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins. Of particular interest is the exposure of young children to BPA via food stored in BPA-containing packaging. Objectives In this study we assessed the age dependence of the toxicokinetics of BPA and its glucuronidated metabolite, BPA-Glu, using a coupled BPA–BPA-Glu physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) model. Methods Using information gathered from toxicokinetic studies in adults, we built a PBTK model. We then scaled the model to children < 2 years of age based on the age dependence of physiologic parameters relevant for absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion. Results We estimated the average steady-state BPA plasma concentration in newborns to be 11 times greater than that in adults when given the same weight-normalized dose. Because of the rapid development of the glucuronidation process, this ratio dropped to 2 by 3 months of age. Simulation of typical feeding exposures, as estimated by regulatory authorities, showed a 5-fold greater steady-state BPA plasma concentration in 3- and 6-month-olds compared with adults, reflecting both a reduced capacity for BPA metabolism and a greater weight-normalized BPA exposure. Because of uncertainty in defining the hepatic BPA intrinsic clearance in adults, these values represent preliminary estimates. Conclusions Simulations of the differential BPA dosimetry between adults and young children point to the need for more sensitive analytical methods for BPA to define, with greater certainty, the adult hepatic BPA intrinsic clearance, as well as a need for external exposure data in young children. PMID:19440506

  14. Aging Successfully: A Four-Factor Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Pai-Lin; Lan, William; Yen, Tung-Wen

    2011-01-01

    The study was designed to validate a model for a successful aging process and examine the gender differences in the aging process. Three hundred twelve participants who were 65 or older completed a Taiwan Social Change Survey that measures four factors that define successful aging process: including physical, psychological, social support, and…

  15. Effective groundwater modeling of the data-poor Nubian Aquifer System (Chad, Egypt, Libya, Sudan) - use of parsimony and 81Kr-based groundwater ages (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, C. I.; Soliman, S. M.; Aggarwal, P. K.

    2013-12-01

    Important information for management of large aquifer systems can be obtained via a parsimonious approach to groundwater modeling, in part, employing isotope-interpreted groundwater ages. ';Parsimonious' modeling implies active avoidance of overly-complex representations when constructing models. This approach is essential for evaluation of aquifer systems that lack informative hydrogeologic databases. Even in the most remote aquifers, despite lack of typical data, groundwater ages can be interpreted from isotope samples at only a few downstream locations. These samples incorporate hydrogeologic information from the entire upstream groundwater flowpath; thus, interpreted ages are among the most-effective information sources for groundwater model development. This approach is applied to the world's largest non-renewable aquifer, the transboundary Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) of Chad, Egypt, Libya and Sudan. In the NAS countries, water availability is a critical problem and NAS can reliably serve as a water supply for an extended future period. However, there are national concerns about transboundary impacts of water use by neighbors. These concerns include excessive depletion of shared groundwater by individual countries and the spread of water-table drawdown across borders, where neighboring country near-border shallow wells and oases may dry. Development of a parsimonious groundwater flow model, based on limited available NAS hydrogeologic data and on 81Kr groundwater ages below oases in Egypt, is a key step in providing a technical basis for international discussion concerning management of this non-renewable water resource. Simply-structured model analyses, undertaken as part of an IAEA/UNDP/GEF project, show that although the main transboundary issue is indeed drawdown crossing national boundaries, given the large scale of NAS and its plausible ranges of aquifer parameter values, the magnitude of transboundary drawdown will likely be small and may not be a

  16. EFFECTS: documentation and verification for a BEIR III cancer risk model based on age, sex, and population dynamics for BIOTRAN

    SciTech Connect

    Wenzel, W.J.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1985-09-01

    The computer simulation code EFFECTS is coupled with the radionuclide uptake and environmental transport strategies of the BIOTRAN code to predict cancer risks and deaths in a dynamic human population. Total mortalities due to all causes are incorporated with projected radiation-induced cancer mortalities caused by all previous chronic or acute radiation exposures of the population as a function of age and sex. Superpositioning radiation-induced cancer mortalities on current total mortalities in each age group allows a realistic and dynamic estimate of cancer risks for complex radiation exposure scenarios. EFFECTS was developed on the CDC 7600 and can be executed on the Cray computer system at Los Alamos National Laboratory. EFFECTS can simulate the upper boundary of cancer risk estimates where population exposures occur over many years and where organ burdens are integrated over the lifetime of the individual. This report gives new insight on age-specific cancer risks. As part of the code verification, the simulated impacts to a small population from natural background uranium and an accidental release of airborne plutonium are compared. For the long-term continuous exposure to natural background uranium, the impact to the population is very small (2 x 10/sup -6/ to 7 x 10/sup -6/ deaths/10,000 people) with young adults receiving the largest bone doses and risks. For the long-term intakes following a simulated accidental air release of plutonium, young teenagers receive the highest bone doses while young adults receive the largest risk. Simulating these two scenarios, using BIOTRAN/HUMTRN/EFFECTS, illustrates sufficient resolution to predict the age/sex-specific response from human populations from contaminants in our environment. 23 refs., 43 figs., 7 tabs.

  17. Modelling the molecular mechanisms of aging.

    PubMed

    Mc Auley, Mark T; Guimera, Alvaro Martinez; Hodgson, David; Mcdonald, Neil; Mooney, Kathleen M; Morgan, Amy E; Proctor, Carole J

    2017-02-28

    The aging process is driven at the cellular level by random molecular damage that slowly accumulates with age. Although cells possess mechanisms to repair or remove damage, they are not 100% efficient and their efficiency declines with age. There are many molecular mechanisms involved and exogenous factors such as stress also contribute to the aging process. The complexity of the aging process has stimulated the use of computational modelling in order to increase our understanding of the system, test hypotheses and make testable predictions. As many different mechanisms are involved, a wide range of models have been developed. This paper gives an overview of the types of models that have been developed, the range of tools used, modelling standards and discusses many specific examples of models that have been grouped according to the main mechanisms that they address. We conclude by discussing the opportunities and challenges for future modelling in this field.

  18. Modelling the molecular mechanisms of aging

    PubMed Central

    Mc Auley, Mark T.; Guimera, Alvaro Martinez; Hodgson, David; Mcdonald, Neil; Mooney, Kathleen M.; Morgan, Amy E.

    2017-01-01

    The aging process is driven at the cellular level by random molecular damage that slowly accumulates with age. Although cells possess mechanisms to repair or remove damage, they are not 100% efficient and their efficiency declines with age. There are many molecular mechanisms involved and exogenous factors such as stress also contribute to the aging process. The complexity of the aging process has stimulated the use of computational modelling in order to increase our understanding of the system, test hypotheses and make testable predictions. As many different mechanisms are involved, a wide range of models have been developed. This paper gives an overview of the types of models that have been developed, the range of tools used, modelling standards and discusses many specific examples of models that have been grouped according to the main mechanisms that they address. We conclude by discussing the opportunities and challenges for future modelling in this field. PMID:28096317

  19. Cognitive aging on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: a novel structural equation modeling framework with causal assumptions based on a theory of visual attention.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Simon; Wilms, L Inge

    2014-01-01

    We examined the effects of normal aging on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60-75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive aging affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; Model 2), informed by functional structures that were modeled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1). The results show that aging effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity (Model 2). These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective aging effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting aging effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive aging effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent.

  20. Computer Modelling of Age Hardening for Isothermally Aged Al-Mg-Si Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Linda; Ferguson, W. George

    Computer modelling, due to it saving time and money, has been widely used in industrial simulation. The present model, which is based on the Shercliff-Ashby methodology for the ageing of aluminum alloys, can be used to predict the yield strength (or hardness) of Al-Mg-Si alloys for the artificial ageing temperature below the solvus temperature as a function of time. With suitable input data, this model can be applied to most Al-Mg-Si alloys, wrought or cast. In the present model, input data for aluminium alloys of A356, A357 and 6061 is taken from the open literature, and then the unknown constants are calibrated from these data. After calibration, the ageing curves are constructed for different isothermal ageing temperatures. Finally, experimentally ageing heat treatments at different temperatures for casting alloys of A356 were done to validate the model.

  1. Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of methylmercury to estimate exposures in US women of childbearing age.

    PubMed

    Allen, Bruce C; Hack, C Eric; Clewell, Harvey J

    2007-08-01

    A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16-49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 microg/kg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 microg/kg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability

  2. Friendship in school-age boys with autism spectrum disorders: A meta-analytic summary and developmental, process-based model.

    PubMed

    Mendelson, Jenna L; Gates, Jacquelyn A; Lerner, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Friendship-making is considered a well-established domain of deficit for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD; American Psychiatric Association, 2013), with this population sometimes described as incapable of making friends. However, the majority of children with ASD indicate a desire for friends, and many report having friends. To what degree, then, do youth with ASD succeed in achieving friendships with peers? If and when they do succeed, by what means do these friendships emerge relative to models of typically developing (TD) youths' friendships? To address these questions, we first meta-analyzed the descriptive friendship literature (peer-reported sociometrics, self-report, parent-report) among school-age boys with ASD. Using random effects models, we found that youth with ASD do make friends according to peers and parents (Hedges's g > 2.84). However, self-reported friendship quality (Hedges's g = -1.09) and parent- and peer-reported quantity (Hedges's g < -0.63) were poorer than TD peers. We consider these findings in light of 2 conceptual frameworks for understanding social deficits in ASD (social cognition and social motivation theory) and in view of a leading model of friendship in TD youth (Hartup & Stevens, 1997). We then present a model that synthesizes these domains through the construct of social information processing speed, and thereby present the first developmental, process-based model of friendship development among youth with ASD. (PsycINFO Database Record

  3. Mouse models and aging: longevity and progeria.

    PubMed

    Liao, Chen-Yu; Kennedy, Brian K

    2014-01-01

    Aging is a complex, multifactorial process that is likely influenced by the activities of a range of biological pathways. Genetic approaches to identify genes modulating longevity have been highly successful and recent efforts have extended these studies to mammalian aging. A variety of genetic models have been reported to have enhanced lifespan and, similarly, many genetic interventions lead to progeroid phenotypes. Here, we detail and evaluate both sets of models, focusing on the insights they provide about the molecular processes modulating aging and the extent to which mutations conferring progeroid pathologies really phenocopy accelerated aging.

  4. Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V.

    2016-01-01

    A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease. PMID:27014089

  5. Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model.

    PubMed

    Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V

    2016-01-01

    A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease.

  6. Numerical solution of the Penna model of biological aging with age-modified mutation rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M. S.; Maksymowicz, A. Z.

    2009-06-01

    In this paper we present results of numerical calculation of the Penna bit-string model of biological aging, modified for the case of a -dependent mutation rate m(a) , where a is the parent’s age. The mutation rate m(a) is the probability per bit of an extra bad mutation introduced in offspring inherited genome. We assume that m(a) increases with age a . As compared with the reference case of the standard Penna model based on a constant mutation rate m , the dynamics of the population growth shows distinct changes in age distribution of the population. Here we concentrate on mortality q(a) , a fraction of items eliminated from the population when we go from age (a) to (a+1) in simulated transition from time (t) to next time (t+1) . The experimentally observed q(a) dependence essentially follows the Gompertz exponential law for a above the minimum reproduction age. Deviation from the Gompertz law is however observed for the very old items, close to the maximal age. This effect may also result from an increase in mutation rate m with age a discussed in this paper. The numerical calculations are based on analytical solution of the Penna model, presented in a series of papers by Coe [J. B. Coe, Y. Mao, and M. E. Cates, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 288103 (2002)]. Results of the numerical calculations are supported by the data obtained from computer simulation based on the solution by Coe

  7. Coupling 3D groundwater modeling with CFC-based age dating to classify local groundwater circulation in an unconfined crystalline aquifer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolbe, Tamara; Marçais, Jean; Thomas, Zahra; Abbott, Benjamin W.; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Rousseau-Gueutin, Pauline; Aquilina, Luc; Labasque, Thierry; Pinay, Gilles

    2016-12-01

    Nitrogen pollution of freshwater and estuarine environments is one of the most urgent environmental crises. Shallow aquifers with predominantly local flow circulation are particularly vulnerable to agricultural contaminants. Water transit time and flow path are key controls on catchment nitrogen retention and removal capacity, but the relative importance of hydrogeological and topographical factors in determining these parameters is still uncertain. We used groundwater dating and numerical modeling techniques to assess transit time and flow path in an unconfined aquifer in Brittany, France. The 35.5 km2 study catchment has a crystalline basement underneath a ∼60 m thick weathered and fractured layer, and is separated into a distinct upland and lowland area by an 80 m-high butte. We used groundwater discharge and groundwater ages derived from chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentration to calibrate a free-surface flow model simulating groundwater flow circulation. We found that groundwater flow was highly local (mean travel distance = 350 m), substantially smaller than the typical distance between neighboring streams (∼1 km), while CFC-based ages were quite old (mean = 40 years). Sensitivity analysis revealed that groundwater travel distances were not sensitive to geological parameters (i.e. arrangement of geological layers and permeability profile) within the constraints of the CFC age data. However, circulation was sensitive to topography in the lowland area where the water table was near the land surface, and to recharge rate in the upland area where water input modulated the free surface of the aquifer. We quantified these differences with a local groundwater ratio (rGW-LOCAL), defined as the mean groundwater travel distance divided by the mean of the reference surface distances (the distance water would have to travel across the surface of the digital elevation model). Lowland, rGW-LOCAL was near 1, indicating primarily topographical controls. Upland, r

  8. An integrated modeling approach to age invariant face recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvi, Fahad Bashir; Pears, Russel

    2015-03-01

    This Research study proposes a novel method for face recognition based on Anthropometric features that make use of an integrated approach comprising of a global and personalized models. The system is aimed to at situations where lighting, illumination, and pose variations cause problems in face recognition. A Personalized model covers the individual aging patterns while a Global model captures general aging patterns in the database. We introduced a de-aging factor that de-ages each individual in the database test and training sets. We used the k nearest neighbor approach for building a personalized model and global model. Regression analysis was applied to build the models. During the test phase, we resort to voting on different features. We used FG-Net database for checking the results of our technique and achieved 65 percent Rank 1 identification rate.

  9. Species ages in neutral biodiversity models.

    PubMed

    Chisholm, Ryan A; O'Dwyer, James P

    2014-05-01

    Biogeography seeks to understand the mechanisms that drive biodiversity across long temporal and large spatial scales. Theoretical models of biogeography can be tested by comparing their predictions of quantities such as species ages against empirical estimates. It has previously been claimed that the neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography predicts species ages that are unrealistically long. Any improved theory of biodiversity must rectify this problem, but first it is necessary to quantify the problem precisely. Here we provide analytical expressions for species ages in neutral biodiversity communities. We analyse a spatially implicit metacommunity model and solve for both the zero-sum and non-zero-sum cases. We explain why our new expressions are, in the context of biodiversity, usually more appropriate than those previously imported from neutral molecular evolution. Because of the time symmetry of the spatially implicit neutral model, our expressions also lead directly to formulas for species persistence times and species lifetimes. We use our new expressions to estimate species ages of forest trees under a neutral model and find that they are about an order of magnitude shorter than those predicted previously but still unrealistically long. In light of our results, we discuss different models of biogeography that may solve the problem of species ages.

  10. Age-based factors in femicide.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Ann Wolbert; Burgess, Allen G; Koehler, Steven A; Dominick, Joseph; Wecht, Cyril H

    2005-01-01

    Homicide is a topic of interest not only because of its severity but because it is a fairly reliable barometer of all violent crime, especially as it affects women. This exploratory study compared a group of murdered women over age 60 with a group of murdered women 30-59 and included age-based factors for both groups. Discussion focuses on forensics as insight to crime scene dynamics and homicidal behavior.

  11. Agent-Based Model Forecasts Aging of the Population of People Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago and Changing Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infections.

    PubMed

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E

    2015-01-01

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010-2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(± 2)% to 36(± 5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(± 5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(± 1) to 40(± 2) with a corresponding increase from 59(± 2)% to 80(± 6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  12. Differences in geriatric anthropometric data between DXA-based subject-specific estimates and non-age-specific traditional regression models.

    PubMed

    Chambers, April J; Sukits, Alison L; McCrory, Jean L; Cham, Rakie

    2011-08-01

    Age, obesity, and gender can have a significant impact on the anthropometrics of adults aged 65 and older. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in body segment parameters derived using two methods: (1) a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) subject-specific method (Chambers et al., 2010) and (2) traditional regression models (de Leva, 1996). The impact of aging, gender, and obesity on the potential differences between these methods was examined. Eighty-three healthy older adults were recruited for participation. Participants underwent a whole-body DXA scan (Hologic QDR 1000/W). Mass, length, center of mass, and radius of gyration were determined for each segment. In addition, traditional regressions were used to estimate these parameters (de Leva, 1996). A mixed linear regression model was performed (α = 0.05). Method type was significant in every variable of interest except forearm segment mass. The obesity and gender differences that we observed translate into differences associated with using traditional regressions to predict anthropometric variables in an aging population. Our data point to a need to consider age, obesity, and gender when utilizing anthropometric data sets and to develop regression models that accurately predict body segment parameters in the geriatric population, considering gender and obesity.

  13. Applicability of Age-Based Hunting Regulations for African Leopards

    PubMed Central

    Balme, Guy Andrew; Hunter, Luke; Braczkowski, Alex Richard

    2012-01-01

    In species in which juvenile survival depends strongly on male tenure, excessive trophy hunting can artificially elevate male turnover and increase infanticide, potentially to unsustainable levels. Simulation models show that the likelihood of safe harvests can be improved by restricting offtakes to males old enough to have reared their first cohort of offspring to independence; in the case of African leopards, males were ≥7 years old. Here, we explore the applicability of an age-based approach for regulating trophy hunting of leopards. We conducted a structured survey comprising photographs of known-age leopards to assess the ability of wildlife practitioners to sex and age leopards. We also evaluated the utility of four phenotypic traits for use by trophy hunters to age male leopards in the field. Our logistic regression models showed that male leopard age affected the likelihood of survey respondents identifying the correct sex; notably, males <2 years were typically misidentified as females, while mature males (≥4 years) were sexed correctly. Mature male leopards were also more likely to be aged correctly, as were portrait photographs. Aging proficiency was also influenced by the profession of respondents, with hunters recording the lowest scores. A discriminant model including dewlap size, the condition of the ears, and the extent of facial scarring accurately discriminated among male leopard age classes. Model classification rates were considerably higher than the respective scores attained by survey respondents, implying that the aging ability of hunters could theoretically improve with appropriate training. Dewlap size was a particularly reliable indicator of males ≥7 years and a review of online trophy galleries suggested its wider utility as an aging criterion. Our study demonstrated that an age-based hunting approach is practically applicable for leopards. However, implementation would require major reform within the regulatory framework and the

  14. Cerebrovascular hemodynamic correlates of aging in the Lou/c rat: a model of healthy aging.

    PubMed

    Dubeau, S; Ferland, G; Gaudreau, P; Beaumont, E; Lesage, F

    2011-06-15

    The LOU/c rat is an inbred strain considered a model of healthy aging. It exhibits a longer free disease lifespan and a low adiposity throughout life. While this animal model has been shown to maintain eating behavior and neuroendocrine, metabolic and cognitive functions with age, no study has yet investigated vascular correlates in this model of healthy aging. In the present work, multispectral optical imaging was used to investigate the hemodynamic response in the somatosensory cortex of LOU/c rats following forepaw stimulation in three age groups, 4, 24 and 40months. Results indicate reduced hemodynamic responses in the contralateral somatosensory cortex between young (4months) and older groups following stimulation. This decrease was associated with an increase in the spatial extent of activation. The ipsilateral response did not change with aging leading to decreased laterality. Estimations of the relative change in the local cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen during stimulation based on multimodal data showed no significant change with age. The exponent describing the relation between blood volume and blood flow changes, Grubb's parameter, did display a significant change with age which may suggest vessel compliance modifications. This work finds its relevance in recent findings underlying the importance of vascular changes with aging and its impact on neurodegenerative disease.

  15. Love Kills:. Simulations in Penna Ageing Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, Dietrich; Cebrat, Stanisław; Penna, T. J. P.; Sousa, A. O.

    The standard Penna ageing model with sexual reproduction is enlarged by adding additional bit-strings for love: Marriage happens only if the male love strings are sufficiently different from the female ones. We simulate at what level of required difference the population dies out.

  16. Normal brain ageing: models and mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Toescu, Emil C

    2005-01-01

    Normal ageing is associated with a degree of decline in a number of cognitive functions. Apart from the issues raised by the current attempts to expand the lifespan, understanding the mechanisms and the detailed metabolic interactions involved in the process of normal neuronal ageing continues to be a challenge. One model, supported by a significant amount of experimental evidence, views the cellular ageing as a metabolic state characterized by an altered function of the metabolic triad: mitochondria–reactive oxygen species (ROS)–intracellular Ca2+. The perturbation in the relationship between the members of this metabolic triad generate a state of decreased homeostatic reserve, in which the aged neurons could maintain adequate function during normal activity, as demonstrated by the fact that normal ageing is not associated with widespread neuronal loss, but become increasingly vulnerable to the effects of excessive metabolic loads, usually associated with trauma, ischaemia or neurodegenerative processes. This review will concentrate on some of the evidence showing altered mitochondrial function with ageing and also discuss some of the functional consequences that would result from such events, such as alterations in mitochondrial Ca2+ homeostasis, ATP production and generation of ROS. PMID:16321805

  17. The Healthy Aging Research Network: Modeling Collaboration for Community Impact.

    PubMed

    Belza, Basia; Altpeter, Mary; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ory, Marcia G

    2017-03-01

    As the first Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Prevention Research Centers Program thematic network, the Healthy Aging Research Network was established to better understand the determinants of healthy aging within older adult populations, identify interventions that promote healthy aging, and assist in translating research into sustainable community-based programs throughout the nation. To achieve these goals requires concerted efforts of a collaborative network of academic, community, and public health organizational partnerships. For the 2001-2014 Prevention Research Center funding cycles, the Healthy Aging Research Network conducted prevention research and promoted the wide use of practices known to foster optimal health. Organized around components necessary for successful collaborations (i.e., governance and infrastructure, shaping focus, community involvement, and evaluation and improvement), this commentary highlights exemplars that demonstrate the Healthy Aging Research Network's unique contributions to the field. The Healthy Aging Research Network's collaboration provided a means to collectively build capacity for practice and policy, reduce fragmentation and duplication in health promotion and aging research efforts, maximize the efficient use of existing resources and generate additional resources, and ultimately, create synergies for advancing the healthy aging agenda. This collaborative model was built upon a backbone organization (coordinating center); setting of common agendas and mutually reinforcing activities; and continuous communications. Given its successes, the Healthy Aging Research Network model could be used to create new and evaluate existing thematic networks to guide the translation of research into policy and practice.

  18. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE PAGES

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; ...

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  19. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  20. Animal models of age related macular degeneration.

    PubMed

    Pennesi, Mark E; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J

    2012-08-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations.

  1. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    PubMed Central

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

  2. [An epidemiological index to assess the nutritional status of children based in a polynomial model of values from Z punctuation for the age in Mexico].

    PubMed

    Avila-Curiel, A; Shamah, T; Barragán, L; Chávez, A; Avila, Maria; Juárez, L

    2004-03-01

    A nutritional status index was built by modeling the mathematical function of the mean Z scores of weight for age, from 60,079 children under five years of age, selected in a probabilistic fashion from the Mexican population. The most precise mathematical model was a fifth degree polynomial. The correlation coefficient was between .937model is used to analyze the characteristics of the different study populations. The index shows an improvement of -39.6 to -16.8 at the national level, between the years 1988 and 1999. This improvement is greater in urban (-36-4 to -8.4) than in rural areas (-48.8 in 1989, to -37.7 in 1999). The indigenous rural population of the country showed the highest levels of malnutrition (-54.4), as compared to the non-indigenous rural population (-37.1). In Mexico, City, the index was -5.9 in 1995, which represents an average of extreme nutritional values: -17.3 in the lower socioeconomic strata and 18.0 in the higher strata, the latter suggesting the presence of childhood obesity. This index is useful to estimate the epidemiological burden and the characteristics of malnutrition at early ages, as well as to assess the impact of interventions, without being altered by common biases related to the utilization of malnutrition prevalence values.

  3. Extension of Viscoplasticity Based on Overstress to Capture the Effects of Prior Aging on the Time Dependent Deformation Behavior of a High-Temperature Polymer: Experiments and Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-10-01

    controlled loading were examined. The material exhibits positive, nonlinear strain rate sensitiv- ity in monotonic loading. Nonlinear, “curved” stress...were evaluated in a series of strain and load controlled experiments. Based on experimental results, the VBO theory was extended to capture the...supporting the first operation of the MTS equipment at AFIT in strain control , John Hixenbaugh for his assistance with the argon gas and aging, and

  4. Computational modeling of material aging effects

    SciTech Connect

    Fang, H.E.

    1996-07-01

    Progress is being made in our efforts to develop computational models for predicting material property changes in weapon components due to aging. The first version of a two-dimensional lattice code for modeling thermomechanical fatigue, such as has been observed in solder joints on electronic components removed from the stockpile, has been written and tested. The code does a good qualitative job of presenting intergranular and/or transgranular cracking in a polycrystalline material when under thermomechanical deformation. The current progress is an encouraging start for our long term effort to develop multi-level simulation capabilities, with the technology of high performance computing, for predicting age-related effects on the reliability of weapons.

  5. Aging, Breast Cancer and the Mouse Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    Presenescent or senescent hBF (1.2 or 18x×10 4/well, respectively) [M, Stampfer , P. Yaswen, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory wdre suspended in 60 l cold...2.8 1 2.8 Inducing a human-like senescent phenotype in mouse fibroblasts Jean-Philihoo Copp , Simona Parrinello, Ana Krtolica, Christopher K. Patil...MAMMARY EPITHELIAL CELL PROLIFERATION AND TUMORIGENESIS: A MOUSE MODEL FOR HUMAN AGING. Jean-Philippe Coppe, Simona Parrinello, Ana Krtolica, Christopher

  6. Micromechanical Modeling of Concrete at Early Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuleubekov, Kairat

    The focus of this research is a micromechanical characterization of Portland cement concrete at early age (less than 28 days). Concrete's viscoelastic properties change significantly at early age due to solidification of its matrix component. Bazant's solidification theory models concrete as a material solidifying in time. This approach is generalized to a three-dimensional characterization of a composite material with a solidifying matrix and elastic inclusions. An integral constitutive relationship was obtained using a generalized correspondence principle and homogenization techniques for elastic composite materials. In light of this approach, effective creep properties of composite spherical assemblage with an aging matrix are obtained. In addition, the elastic Hashin-Monteiro model is generalized to account for the effect of the interfacial transition zone properties on concrete creep. An effective computational platform was developed to evaluate operator expressions in order to obtain relaxation and creep functions numerically. Through numerical examples, it is shown that triaxial generalization of Bazant's solidification model enables robust and computationally efficient prediction of creep deformations in Portland cement concrete.

  7. Caring for people with dementia in residential aged care: successes with a composite person-centered care model featuring Montessori-based activities.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Gail; Morley, Catherine; Walters, Wendy; Malta, Sue; Doyle, Colleen

    2015-01-01

    Person-centered models of dementia care commonly merge aspects of existing models with additional influences from published and unpublished evidence and existing government policy. This study reports on the development and evaluation of one such composite model of person-centered dementia care, the ABLE model. The model was based on building the capacity and ability of residents living with dementia, using environmental changes, staff education and organizational and community engagement. Montessori principles were also used. The evaluation of the model employed mixed methods. Significant behavior changes were evident among residents of the dementia care Unit after the model was introduced, as were reductions in anti-psychotic and sedative medication. Staff reported increased knowledge about meeting the needs of people with dementia, and experienced organizational culture change that supported the ABLE model of care. Families were very satisfied with the changes.

  8. Active Ageing: An Empirical Approach to the WHO Model

    PubMed Central

    Paúl, Constança; Ribeiro, Oscar; Teixeira, Laetitia

    2012-01-01

    Background. In the beginning of the 21st century, the world summit on population taking place in Madrid approved active ageing, WHO (2002) as the main objective of health and social policies for old people. Few studies have been done on the scientific validity of the construct. This study aims to validate the construct of active ageing and test empirically the WHO (2002) model of Active Ageing in a sample of community-dwelling seniors. Methods. 1322 old people living in the community were interviewed using an extensive assessment protocol to measure WHO's determinants of active ageing and performed an exploratory factor analysis followed by a confirmatory factor analyses. Results. We did not confirm the active ageing model, as most of the groups of determinants are either not independent or not significant. We got to a six-factor model (health, psychological component, cognitive performance, social relationships, biobehavioural component, and personality) explaining 54.6% of total variance. Conclusion. The present paper shows that there are objective as well as subjective variables contributing to active ageing and that psychological variables seem to give a very important contribute to the construct. The profile of active ageing is expected to vary between contexts and cultures and can be used to guide specific community and individually based interventions. PMID:23193396

  9. Select aging biomarkers based on telomere length and chronological age to build a biological age equation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei-Guang; Zhu, Shu-Ying; Bai, Xiao-Juan; Zhao, De-Long; Jian, Shi-Min; Li, Juan; Li, Zuo-Xiang; Fu, Bo; Cai, Guang-Yan; Sun, Xue-Feng; Chen, Xiang-Mei

    2014-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to build a biological age (BA) equation combining telomere length with chronological age (CA) and associated aging biomarkers. In total, 139 healthy volunteers were recruited from a Chinese Han cohort in Beijing. A genetic index, renal function indices, cardiovascular function indices, brain function indices, and oxidative stress and inflammation indices (C-reactive protein [CRP]) were measured and analyzed. A BA equation was proposed based on selected parameters, with terminal telomere restriction fragment (TRF) and CA as the two principal components. The selected aging markers included mitral annulus peak E anterior wall (MVEA), intima-media thickness (IMT), cystatin C (CYSC), D-dimer (DD), and digital symbol test (DST). The BA equation was: BA = −2.281TRF + 26.321CYSC + 0.025DD − 104.419MVEA + 34.863IMT − 0.265DST + 0.305CA + 26.346. To conclude, telomere length and CA as double benchmarks may be a new method to build a BA.

  10. Age Dependent Absolute Plate and Plume Motion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, D. E.; Koppers, A. A. P.

    2015-12-01

    Current absolute plate motion (APM) models from 80 - 0 Ma are constrained by the location of mantle plume related hotspot seamounts, in particular those of the Hawaiian-Emperor and Louisville seamount trails. Originally the 'fixed' hotspot hypothesis was developed to explain past plate motion based on linear age progressive intra-plate volcanism. However, now that 'moving' hotspots are accepted, it is becoming clear that APM models need to be corrected for individual plume motion vectors. For older seamount trails that were active between roughly 50 and 80 Ma the APM models that use 'fixed' hotspots overestimate the measured age progression in those trails, while APM models corrected for 'moving' hotspots underestimate those age progressions. These mismatches are due to both a lack of reliable ages in the older portions of both the Hawaii and Louisville seamount trails and insufficient APM modeling constraints from other seamount trails in the Pacific Basin. Seamounts are difficult to sample and analyze because many are hydrothermally altered and have low potassium concentrations. New 40Ar/39Ar Age results from International Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expedition 330 Sites U1372 (n=18), U1375 (n=3), U1376 (n=15) and U1377 (n=7) aid in constraining the oldest end of the Louisville Seamount trail. A significant observation in this study is that the age range recovered in the drill cores match the range of ages that were acquired on dredging cruises at the same seamounts (e.g. Koppers et al., 2011). This is important for determining the inception age of a seamount. The sections recovered from IODP EXP 330 are in-situ volcanoclastic breccia and lava flows. Comparing the seismic interpretations of Louisville guyots (Contreras-Reyes et al., 2010), Holes U1372, U1373 and U1374 penetrated the extrusive and volcanoclastic sections of the seamount. The ages obtained are consistent over stratigraphic intervals >100-450 m thick, providing evidence that these seamounts

  11. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  12. Computer modelling of age hardening for cast aluminium alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Linda; Ferguson, W. George

    2009-08-01

    Age hardening, or precipitation hardening, is one of the most widely adopted techniques for strengthening of aluminium alloys. Although various age hardening models have been developed for aluminium alloys, from the large volume of literature reviewed, it appears that the bulk of the research has been concentrated on wrought aluminium alloys, only a few of the established precipitation models have been applied to the casting aluminium alloys. In the present work, there are two modelling methods that have been developed and applied to the casting aluminium alloys A356 and A357. One is based on the Shercliff-Ashby methodology to produce a process model, by which we mean a mathematical relationship between process variables (alloy composition, ageing temperature and time) and material properties (yield strength or hardness) through microstructure evolution (precipitate radius, volume fraction). The other method is based on the Kampmann and Wagner Numerical (KWN) model which deals with concomitant nucleation, growth and coarsening and is thus capable of predicting the full evolution of the particle size distribution and then a strength model is used to evaluate the resulting change in hardness or yield strength at room temperature by taking into account contributions from lattice resistance, solid solution hardening and precipitation hardening.

  13. Creating Better School-Age Care Jobs: Model Work Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haack, Peggy

    Built on the premise that good school-age care jobs are the cornerstone of high-quality services for school-age youth and their families, this guide presents model work standards for school-age care providers. The guide begins with a description of the strengths and challenges of the school-age care profession. The model work standards are…

  14. Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

    PubMed

    Roy, S G

    1989-06-01

    "Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function."

  15. Computer-Based Cognitive Training in Aging

    PubMed Central

    Klimova, Blanka

    2016-01-01

    At present there is a rapid growth of aging population groups worldwide, which brings about serious economic and social problems. Thus, there is considerable effort to prolong the active life of these older people and keep them independent. The purpose of this mini review is to explore available clinical studies implementing computer-based cognitive training programs as intervention tools in the prevention and delay of cognitive decline in aging, with a special focus on their effectiveness. This was done by conducting a literature search in the databases Web of Science, Scopus, MEDLINE and Springer, and consequently by evaluating the findings of the relevant studies. The findings show that computerized cognitive training can lead to the improvement of cognitive functions such as working memory and reasoning skills in particular. However, this training should be performed over a longer time span since a short-term cognitive training mainly has an impact on short-term memory with temporary effects. In addition, the training must be intense to become effective. Furthermore, the results indicate that it is important to pay close attention to the methodological standards in future clinical studies. PMID:28066236

  16. Speciation Effect in the Penna Aging Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Łaszkiewicz, A.; Szymczak, Sz.; Cebrat, S.

    We have simulated the evolution of diploid, sexually reproducing populations using the Penna model of aging. We have noted that diminishing the recombination frequency during the gamete production generates a specific diversity of genomes in the populations. When two populations independently evolving for some time were mixed in one environmental niche of the limited size and crossbreeding between them was allowed, the average lifespan of hybrids was significantly shorter than the lifespan of the individuals of parental lines. Another effect of higher hybrid mortality is the faster elimination of one parental line from the shared environment. The two populations living in one environment co-exist much longer if they are genetically separated — they compete as two species instead of crossbreeding. This effect can be considered as the first step to speciation — any barrier eliminating crossbreeding between these populations, leading to speciation, would favor the populations.

  17. Virginia Opossums, Minimum Reproduction Age and Predators in the Penna Aging Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altevolmer, A. K.

    Age-specific predators are introduced into the Penna model of biological aging. It is shown that populations with a variable minimum reproduction age find a stable state with an earlier onset of reproduction, if older ages are eaten by the predators. This behavior agrees with the demographic data of the Virgina opossum.

  18. Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauter, Sally T.

    2011-01-01

    ). Dietary data on age-0 American shad and previously published reports on the diet of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Rondorf et al. 1990, USGS unpublished data) suggested there might be considerable dietary overlap between these species in the lower Columbia River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was interested in using the American shad bioenergetics model to explore hypotheses concerning dietary overlap between age-0 American shad and emigrating fall Chinook salmon. The second modeling application uses the fall Chinook salmon bioenergetics model (Koehler et al. 2006) to explore the growth potential of juvenile fall Chinook salmon predating on age-0 American shad in the lower Columbia River. This modeling was based dietary information on a small number of age-0 fall Chinook salmon (n = 13) collected in John Day Reservoir in 1994 - 1996 (unpublished USGS data). Analysis of this dietary data found that these salmonids were feeding primarily on age-0 American shad (> 75% by weight).

  19. Age-depth model of the past 630 kyr for Lake Ohrid (FYROM/Albania) based on cyclostratigraphic analysis of downhole gamma ray data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgarten, H.; Wonik, T.; Tanner, D. C.; Francke, A.; Wagner, B.; Zanchetta, G.; Sulpizio, R.; Giaccio, B.; Nomade, S.

    2015-12-01

    Gamma ray (GR) fluctuations and potassium (K) values from downhole logging data obtained in the sediments of Lake Ohrid from 0 to 240 m below lake floor (b.l.f). correlate with fluctuations in δ18O values from the global benthic isotope stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). GR and K values are considered a reliable proxy to depict glacial-interglacial cycles, with high clastic input during cold and/or drier periods and high carbonate precipitation during warm and/or humid periods at Lake Ohrid. Spectral analysis was applied to investigate the climate signal and evolution over the length of the borehole. Linking downhole logging data with orbital cycles was used to estimate sedimentation rates and the effect of compaction was compensated for. Sedimentation rates increase on average by 14 % after decompaction of the sediment layers and the mean sedimentation rates shift from 45 cm kyr-1 between 0 and 110 m to 30 cm kyr-1 from 110 to 240 m b.l.f. Tuning of minima and maxima of gamma ray and potassium values versus LR04 extrema, in combination with eight independent tephrostratigraphical tie points, allows establishing of a robust age model for the downhole logging data over the past 630 kyr.

  20. Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rani, Nisha; Jain, Deepak; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha; Biesiada, Marek

    2017-03-01

    In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H0dt/dz and its derivative (H0d2t/dz2) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing. Basically, dt/dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift which is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H(z) data. Further, we calculate H0dt/dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H0dt/dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H0dt/dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z>= 0.3.

  1. A behavioural dynamic model of the relative age effect.

    PubMed

    Pierson, Kawika; Addona, Vittorio; Yates, Philip

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between date of birth and success in a variety of sports, including hockey, is well established. This phenomenon is known as the relative age effect (RAE). We model the RAE in Canadian youth hockey as a positive feedback loop where an initial age advantage is reinforced through additional training and playing opportunities based on perceived skill superiority. The same causal mechanism leads to a higher quit rate for relatively younger players. Our model effectively replicates the birth month distribution of Canadian National Hockey League players (R2 = 86.79%) when driven by Canadian birth distributions. We use this model to evaluate three policies that aim to lessen the RAE. All of the policies reduce the RAE with a significant delay. The most effective policy is a combination of providing additional support to age disadvantaged children and rotating the cut-off date for youth leagues between January 1st and July 1st annually. In equilibrium, this approach leads to a 96% reduction in the RAE compared to the base case.

  2. Evolutionary model with genetics, aging, and knowledge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bustillos, Armando Ticona; de Oliveira, Paulo Murilo

    2004-02-01

    We represent a process of learning by using bit strings, where 1 bits represent the knowledge acquired by individuals. Two ways of learning are considered: individual learning by trial and error, and social learning by copying knowledge from other individuals or from parents in the case of species with parental care. The age-structured bit string allows us to study how knowledge is accumulated during life and its influence over the genetic pool of a population after many generations. We use the Penna model to represent the genetic inheritance of each individual. In order to study how the accumulated knowledge influences the survival process, we include it to help individuals to avoid the various death situations. Modifications in the Verhulst factor do not show any special feature due to its random nature. However, by adding years to life as a function of the accumulated knowledge, we observe an improvement of the survival rates while the genetic fitness of the population becomes worse. In this latter case, knowledge becomes more important in the last years of life where individuals are threatened by diseases. Effects of offspring overprotection and differences between individual and social learning can also be observed. Sexual selection as a function of knowledge shows some effects when fidelity is imposed.

  3. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  4. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  5. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  6. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  7. 38 CFR 3.208 - Claims based on attained age.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... age. 3.208 Section 3.208 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... Claims based on attained age. In claims for pension where the age of the veteran or surviving spouse is material, the statements of age will be accepted where they are in agreement with other statements in...

  8. Multiscale Concrete Modeling of Aging Degradation

    SciTech Connect

    Hammi, Yousseff; Gullett, Philipp; Horstemeyer, Mark F.

    2015-07-31

    In this work a numerical finite element framework is implemented to enable the integration of coupled multiscale and multiphysics transport processes. A User Element subroutine (UEL) in Abaqus is used to simultaneously solve stress equilibrium, heat conduction, and multiple diffusion equations for 2D and 3D linear and quadratic elements. Transport processes in concrete structures and their degradation mechanisms are presented along with the discretization of the governing equations. The multiphysics modeling framework is theoretically extended to the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) by introducing the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) and based on the XFEM user element implementation of Giner et al. [2009]. A damage model that takes into account the damage contribution from the different degradation mechanisms is theoretically developed. The total contribution of damage is forwarded to a Multi-Stage Fatigue (MSF) model to enable the assessment of the fatigue life and the deterioration of reinforced concrete structures in a nuclear power plant. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate the developed multiphysics user element implementation and the XFEM implementation of Giner et al. [2009].

  9. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  10. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  11. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  12. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government employment is eligible...

  13. 5 CFR 1650.31 - Age-based withdrawals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Age-based withdrawals. 1650.31 Section... FUNDS FROM THE THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN In-Service Withdrawals § 1650.31 Age-based withdrawals. (a) A participant who has reached age 591/2 and who has not separated from Government service is eligible...

  14. Biological implications of the Weibull and Gompertz models of aging.

    PubMed

    Ricklefs, Robert E; Scheuerlein, Alex

    2002-02-01

    Gompertz and Weibull functions imply contrasting biological causes of demographic aging. The terms describing increasing mortality with age are multiplicative and additive, respectively, which could result from an increase in the vulnerability of individuals to extrinsic causes in the Gompertz model and the predominance of intrinsic causes at older ages in the Weibull model. Experiments that manipulate extrinsic mortality can distinguish these biological models. To facilitate analyses of experimental data, we defined a single index for the rate of aging (omega) for the Weibull and Gompertz functions. Each function described the increase in aging-related mortality in simulated ages at death reasonably well. However, in contrast to the Weibull omega(W), the Gompertz omega(G) was sensitive to variation in the initial mortality rate independently of aging-related mortality. Comparisons between wild and captive populations appear to support the intrinsic-causes model for birds, but give mixed support for both models in mammals.

  15. Annual fish as a genetic model for aging.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Michael; Jagadeeswaran, Pudur

    2004-02-01

    Advancement in the genetics of aging and identification of longevity genes has been largely due to the model organisms such as Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster. However, knowledge gained from these invertebrates will not be able to identify vertebrate-specific longevity genes. The mouse has a relatively long life span of about 3 years, which limits its utility for screening of longevity genes. Fish have been used in aging studies. However, systematic comparison of survivorship curves for fish is lacking. In this study, we compared the survivorship curves of zebrafish and 2 different annual fish, namely, Cynolebias nigripinnis and Nothobranchius rachovii. These studies established that Nothobranchius rachovii has the shortest life span (8.5 months, at which time 10% of population remains). We also established that it is possible to breed Nothobranchius rachovii under laboratory conditions, and showed that their embryos can be stored for several months and hatched at any time by adding water. In addition, we have isolated 31 cDNA markers out of 71 attempted amplifications based on corresponding homologous genomic sequences in zebrafish and Fugu available from public databases, suggesting that approximately 40% of the genes from Nothobranchius rachovii could be easily isolated. Thus, the ability to be bred under laboratory conditions and the availability of cDNA markers for mapping, along with the major advantage of a relatively short life span, make Nothobranchius rachovii an attractive vertebrate genetic model for aging over other available vertebrate models.

  16. Age-Of Dependent Mutation Rate and Weak Children in the Penna Model in Biological Ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berntsen, K. Nikolaj

    We investigate the effect of an age-dependent mutation rate in the Penna model of ageing and then we observe that the high mortality for human babies can be reproduced by the model if one assumes babies to be weaker than adults.

  17. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

  18. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-02-01

    Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model.

  19. Modeling Creep Processes in Aging Polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olali, N. V.; Voitovich, L. V.; Zazimko, N. N.; Malezhik, M. P.

    2016-03-01

    The photoelastic method is generalized to creep in hereditary aging materials. Optical-creep curves and mechanical-creep or optical-relaxation curves are used to interpret fringe patterns. For materials with constant Poisson's ratio, it is sufficient to use mechanical- or optical-creep curves for this purpose

  20. Age Integrated Learning: A Theoretical Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heckenmueller, Jerome P.; Keller, Ann

    The concept of age integrated learning (AIL) can be derived from Erikson's theory of psychosocial development. Two emphases in his theory that are less well recognized than others are central to Erikson's theory and are the cornerstone of a rationale for AIL. The first is his emphasis on the interdependence of generations for optimal crisis…

  1. Aging

    PubMed Central

    Park, Dong Choon

    2013-01-01

    Aging is initiated based on genetic and environmental factors that operate from the time of birth of organisms. Aging induces physiological phenomena such as reduction of cell counts, deterioration of tissue proteins, tissue atrophy, a decrease of the metabolic rate, reduction of body fluids, and calcium metabolism abnormalities, with final progression onto pathological aging. Despite the efforts from many researchers, the progression and the mechanisms of aging are not clearly understood yet. Therefore, the authors would like to introduce several theories which have gained attentions among the published theories up to date; genetic program theory, wear-and-tear theory, telomere theory, endocrine theory, DNA damage hypothesis, error catastrophe theory, the rate of living theory, mitochondrial theory, and free radical theory. Although there have been many studies that have tried to prevent aging and prolong life, here we introduce a couple of theories which have been proven more or less; food, exercise, and diet restriction. PMID:24653904

  2. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  3. AGING PERFORMANCE OF MODEL 9975 PACKAGE FLUOROELASTOMER O-RINGS

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, E.; Daugherty, W.; Skidmore, E.; Dunn, K.; Fisher, D.

    2011-05-31

    The influence of temperature and radiation on Viton{reg_sign} GLT and GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings is an ongoing research focus at the Savannah River National Laboratory. The O-rings are credited for leaktight containment in the Model 9975 shipping package used for transportation of plutonium-bearing materials. At the Savannah River Site, the Model 9975 packages are being used for interim storage. Primary research efforts have focused on surveillance of O-rings from actual packages, leak testing of seals at bounding aging conditions and the effect of aging temperature on compression stress relaxation behavior, with the goal of service life prediction for long-term storage conditions. Recently, an additional effort to evaluate the effect of aging temperature on the oxidation of the materials has begun. Degradation in the mechanical properties of elastomers is directly related to the oxidation of the polymer. Sensitive measurements of the oxidation rate can be performed in a more timely manner than waiting for a measurable change in mechanical properties, especially at service temperatures. Measuring the oxidation rate therefore provides a means to validate the assumption that the degradation mechanisms(s) do not change from the elevated temperatures used for accelerated aging and the lower service temperatures. Monitoring the amount of oxygen uptake by the material over time at various temperatures can provide increased confidence in lifetime predictions. Preliminary oxygen consumption analysis of a Viton GLT-based fluoroelastomer compound (Parker V0835-75) using an Oxzilla II differential oxygen analyzer in the temperature range of 40-120 C was performed. Early data suggests oxygen consumption rates may level off within the first 100,000 hours (10-12 years) at 40 C and that sharp changes in the degradation mechanism (stress-relaxation) are not expected over the temperature range examined. This is consistent with the known long-term heat aging resistance of

  4. Modeling age-of-onset: Cox model with latent major gene effects

    SciTech Connect

    Li, H.; Thompson, E.A.

    1994-09-01

    Analysis of age-of-onset is a key factor in the segregation and linkage analysis of complex genetic traits, but is complicated by the censoring of unaffected individuals. Most previous work has used parametric distributional assumptions, but it is hard to characterize the distribution of age-of-onset by a single distribution. Other approaches discretize age-of-onset and use logistic regression to model incidence; this approach does not use the information fully. Frailty models have been used for age-of-oset in the biostatistics literature, but these models do not lend themselves to modeling the correlations due to genetic effects which segregate within a family. Here, we propose use of the Cox model with latent major gene effects; conditional on the major genotypes, Cox`s proportional hazards model is used for age-of-onset for each individual. This is a semiparametric model; we do not specify the baseline hazard function. Likelihood analysis of such models is restricted by the difficulty in evaluating of maximizing the likelihood, especially when data are available for some of the members of an extended pedigree. Markov chain Monte Carlo permits genotypic configurations to be realized from the posterior distributions given a current model and the observed data. Hence methods for likelihood analysis can be developed: Monte Carlo EM is used for estimation of the parameters and their variance-covariance matrix. Markers and observed covariates are easily incorporated into this analysis. We present the model, methods for likelihood analysis and the results of a simulation study. The results are comparable with those based on a Cox model with known genotypic dependence in a pedigree. An early-onset Alzheimer`s pedigree and some breast cancer pedigrees have been used as real data examples. Some possible extensions are also discussed.

  5. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans.

    PubMed

    Shagina, N B; Tolstykh, E I; Degteva, M O; Anspaugh, L R; Napier, B A

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitations for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on (90)Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has a similar structure to the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly re-evaluated: gastrointestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0-80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general populations exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

  6. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

    SciTech Connect

    Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

  7. The OMS3 JGrass-NewAge Environmental Modelling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, G.; David, O.; Rigon, R.

    2012-12-01

    The need for integrated analysis, and the multiplicity of possible goals in analyses that require hydro-biophysical modelling, necessitates more than ever the capability of composing modelling solutions with parts of known quality, which are transparent to users and consist of reusable model components. Moreover, modern hydrological modelling requires interaction with GIS tools to allow visualizations and the data-processing necessary to synthesise knowledge from high volumes of inputs and outputs data. Last but not least, doing science that is reproducible has requirements that go beyond the computational issues to embrace the possibility to inspection the tools, and easy compare modelling solutions by third party groups. The JGrass-NewAge system was born in order to satisfy these requirements. It is based on the geographic information system uDig-JGrass, and is composed of two parts: (i) the system of visualization of the data and of the results based on uDig; (ii) the modelling components. The latter are implemented as OMS3 components which can be connected or excluded at runtime, according to the needs and works seamlessly inside the uDig Spatial Toolbox. The system is based on a hillslope-link geometrical partition of the landscape, thus the basic unit, where the water budget is evaluated, is the hillslope, and each one of them drains into a single associated link rather than cells or pixels. To this conceptual partition corresponds an implementation of informatics that uses vectorial features for channels, and raster data for hillslopes. The mass budget for each hillslope can be performed in two ways: according to a modification of Duffy dynamical model of hillslope runoff or according to HyMod lumped model. Differently from traditional rainfall-runoff models where the discharge is usually given at the outlet of a catchment, the discharge is evaluated in each link of the river network according to a procedure presented in Cuencas model. The system includes

  8. Late pleistocene ice age scenarios based on observational evidence

    SciTech Connect

    DeBlonde, G. ); Peltier, W.R. )

    1993-04-01

    Ice age scenarios for the last glacial interglacial cycle, based on observations of Boyle and Keigwin concerning the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and of Barnola et al. concerning atmospheric CO[sub 2] variations derived from the Vostok ice cores, are herein analyzed. Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets are simulated with an energy balance model (EBM) that is asynchronously coupled to vertically integrated ice sheets models based on the Glen flow law. The EBM includes both a realistic land-sea distribution and temperature-albedo feedback and is driven with orbital variations of effective solar insolation. With the addition of atmospheric CO[sub 2] and ocean heat flux variations, but not in their absence, a complete collapse is obtained for the Eurasian ice sheet but not for the North American ice sheet. We therefore suggest that further feedback mechanisms, perhaps involving more accurate modeling of the dynamics of the mostly marine-based Laurentide complex appears necessary to explain termination I. 96 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Base Flow Model Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sinha, Neeraj; Brinckman, Kevin; Jansen, Bernard; Seiner, John

    2011-01-01

    A method was developed of obtaining propulsive base flow data in both hot and cold jet environments, at Mach numbers and altitude of relevance to NASA launcher designs. The base flow data was used to perform computational fluid dynamics (CFD) turbulence model assessments of base flow predictive capabilities in order to provide increased confidence in base thermal and pressure load predictions obtained from computational modeling efforts. Predictive CFD analyses were used in the design of the experiments, available propulsive models were used to reduce program costs and increase success, and a wind tunnel facility was used. The data obtained allowed assessment of CFD/turbulence models in a complex flow environment, working within a building-block procedure to validation, where cold, non-reacting test data was first used for validation, followed by more complex reacting base flow validation.

  10. An Age-Graded Model for Career Development Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuckman, Bruce W.

    This paper presents a career developmental model covering the ages of 5 to 18. Career development education includes experiences which facilitate self-awareness, career-awareness and career decision-making. Before choosing a model for career development, it is necessary to decide on a model for child development. The model developed here borrows…

  11. Exploring the power of yeast to model aging and age-related neurodegenerative disorders.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Ana V; Vilaça, Rita; Santos, Cláudia N; Costa, Vítor; Menezes, Regina

    2017-02-01

    Aging is a multifactorial process determined by molecular, cellular and systemic factors and it is well established that advancing age is a leading risk factor for several neurodegenerative diseases. In fact, the close association of aging and neurodegenerative disorders has placed aging as the greatest social and economic challenge of the 21st century, and age-related diseases have also become a key priority for countries worldwide. The growing need to better understand both aging and neurodegenerative processes has led to the development of simple eukaryotic models amenable for mechanistic studies. Saccharomyces cerevisiae has proven to be an unprecedented experimental model to study the fundamental aspects of aging and to decipher the intricacies of neurodegenerative disorders greatly because the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes are evolutionarily conserved from yeast to human. Moreover, yeast offers several methodological advantages allowing a rapid and relatively easy way of establishing gene-protein-function associations. Here we review different aging theories, common cellular pathways driving aging and neurodegenerative diseases and discuss the major contributions of yeast to the state-of-art knowledge in both research fields.

  12. A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper we discuss a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates or risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks.

  13. Gene Expression-Based Biomarkers for Anopheles gambiae Age Grading

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Mei-Hui; Marinotti, Osvaldo; Zhong, Daibin; James, Anthony A.; Walker, Edward; Guda, Tom; Kweka, Eliningaya J.; Githure, John; Yan, Guiyun

    2013-01-01

    Information on population age structure of mosquitoes under natural conditions is fundamental to the understanding of vectorial capacity and crucial for assessing the impact of vector control measures on malaria transmission. Transcriptional profiling has been proposed as a method for predicting mosquito age for Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes, however, whether this new method is adequate for natural conditions is unknown. This study tests the applicability of transcriptional profiling for age-grading of Anopheles gambiae, the most important malaria vector in Africa. The transcript abundance of two An. gambiae genes, AGAP009551 and AGAP011615, was measured during aging under laboratory and field conditions in three mosquito strains. Age-dependent monotonic changes in transcript levels were observed in all strains evaluated. These genes were validated as age-grading biomarkers using the mark, release and recapture (MRR) method. The MRR method determined a good correspondence between actual and predicted age, and thus demonstrated the value of age classifications derived from the transcriptional profiling of these two genes. The technique was used to establish the age structure of mosquito populations from two malaria-endemic areas in western Kenya. The population age structure determined by the transcriptional profiling method was consistent with that based on mosquito parity. This study demonstrates that the transcription profiling method based on two genes is valuable for age determination of natural mosquitoes, providing a new approach for determining a key life history trait of malaria vectors. PMID:23936017

  14. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population. PMID:27555738

  15. Computational Viscoplasticity Based on Overstress (CVBO) Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Zheng; Ruggles-wrenn, Marina; Fish, Jacob

    2014-03-01

    This article presents an efficient computational viscoplasticity based on an overstress (CVBO) model, including three-dimensional formulation, implicit stress update procedures, consistent tangent, and systematic calibration of the model parameters to experimental data. The model has been validated for PMR 15 neat resin, including temperature and aging dependence.

  16. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  17. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. ); Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  18. Probabilistically Constraining Age-Depth-Models of Glaciogenic Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J.; van der Bilt, W.; Tingley, M.

    2015-12-01

    Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting. All of these proxies, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments do carry some inherent dating uncertainty that is not always fully accounted for. Considerable advances could be achieved if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled, also for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Werner and Tingley (2015) demonstrated how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. In their method, probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments (Werner and Tingley 2015) show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. We show how this novel method can be applied to high resolution, sub-annually sampled lacustrine sediment records to constrain their respective age depth models. The results help to quantify the signal content and extract the regionally representative signal. The single time series can then be used as the basis for a reconstruction of glacial activity. van der Bilt et al. in prep. Werner, J.P. and Tingley, M.P. Clim. Past (2015)

  19. Housekeeping Genes and Death Genes in the Penna Aging Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niewczas, E.; Kurdziel, A.; Cebrat, S.

    The Penna model of aging predicts the accumulation of defective genes expressed after the organism reaches the minimum reproduction age in the genetic pool of the population. The accumulation of defects in the genomes implicates the specific age structure of the modeled populations. Nevertheless, the fraction of defective alleles at loci switched on before the reproduction period does not depend on exact age when precisely they are switched on, it may be just after conception or after birth. We have modeled the mortality of a population in the period before the minimum reproduction age, even before birth, assuming that sets of genes of different size are switched on in different periods of the life span.

  20. Cellular models and therapies for age-related macular degeneration

    PubMed Central

    Forest, David L.; Johnson, Lincoln V.; Clegg, Dennis O.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a complex neurodegenerative visual disorder that causes profound physical and psychosocial effects. Visual impairment in AMD is caused by the loss of retinal pigmented epithelium (RPE) cells and the light-sensitive photoreceptor cells that they support. There is currently no effective treatment for the most common form of this disease (dry AMD). A new approach to treating AMD involves the transplantation of RPE cells derived from either human embryonic or induced pluripotent stem cells. Multiple clinical trials are being initiated using a variety of cell therapies. Although many animal models are available for AMD research, most do not recapitulate all aspects of the disease, hampering progress. However, the use of cultured RPE cells in AMD research is well established and, indeed, some of the more recently described RPE-based models show promise for investigating the molecular mechanisms of AMD and for screening drug candidates. Here, we discuss innovative cell-culture models of AMD and emerging stem-cell-based therapies for the treatment of this vision-robbing disease. PMID:26035859

  1. Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

    We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

  2. Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

    PubMed

    Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

  3. Budding yeast as a model organism to study the effects of age.

    PubMed

    Denoth Lippuner, Annina; Julou, Thomas; Barral, Yves

    2014-03-01

    Although a budding yeast culture can be propagated eternally, individual yeast cells age and eventually die. The detailed knowledge of this unicellular eukaryotic species as well as the powerful tools developed to study its physiology makes budding yeast an ideal model organism to study the mechanisms involved in aging. Considering both detrimental and positive aspects of age, we review changes occurring during aging both at the whole-cell level and at the intracellular level. The possible mechanisms allowing old cells to produce rejuvenated progeny are described in terms of accumulation and inheritance of aging factors. Based on the dynamic changes associated with age, we distinguish different stages of age: early age, during which changes do not impair cell growth; intermediate age, during which aging factors start to accumulate; and late age, which corresponds to the last divisions before death. For each aging factor, we examine its asymmetric segregation and whether it plays a causal role in aging. Using the example of caloric restriction, we describe how the aging process can be modulated at different levels and how changes in different organelles might interplay with each other. Finally, we discuss the beneficial aspects that might be associated with age.

  4. Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

    2010-01-01

    Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

  5. Aging mechanism in model Pickering emulsion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fouilloux, Sarah; Malloggi, Florent; Daillant, Jean; Thill, Antoine

    We study the stability of a model Pickering emulsion system. A special counter-flow microfluidics set-up was used to prepare monodisperse Pickering emulsions, with oil droplets in water. The wettability of the monodisperse silica nanoparticles (NPs) could be tuned by surface grafting and the surface coverage of the droplets was controlled using the microfluidics setup. A surface coverage as low as 23$\\%$ is enough to stabilize the emulsions and we evidence a new regime of Pickering emulsion stability where the surface coverage of emulsion droplets of constant size increases in time, in coexistence with a large amount of dispersed phase. Our results demonstrate that the previously observed limited coalescence regime where surface coverage tends to control the average size of the final droplets must be put in a broader perspective.

  6. Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauter, Sally T.

    2011-01-01

    Bioenergetics modeling can be used as a tool to investigate the impact of non-native age-0 American shad (Alosa sapidissima) on reservoir and estuary food webs. The model can increase our understanding of how these fish influence lower trophic levels as well as predatory fish populations that feed on juvenile salmonids. Bioenergetics modeling can be used to investigate ecological processes, evaluate alternative research hypotheses, provide decision support, and quantitative prediction. Bioenergetics modeling has proven to be extremely useful in fisheries research (Ney et al. 1993,Chips and Wahl 2008, Petersen et al. 2008). If growth and diet parameters are known, the bioenergetics model can be used to quantify the relative amount of zooplankton or insects consumed by age-0 American shad. When linked with spatial and temporal information on fish abundance, model output can guide inferential hypothesis development to demonstrate where the greatest impacts of age-0 American shad might occur.

  7. Developmental trajectories of verbal and visuospatial abilities in healthy older adults: comparison of the hemisphere asymmetry reduction in older adults model and the right hemi-ageing model.

    PubMed

    Hatta, Takeshi; Iwahara, Akihiko; Hatta, Taketoshi; Ito, Emi; Hatta, Junko; Hotta, Chie; Nagahara, Naoko; Fujiwara, Kazumi; Hamajima, Nobuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Two models of cognitive ageing, the hemisphere asymmetry reduction in older adults (HAROLD) model and the right hemi-ageing model, were compared based upon the verbal memory and visuospatial task performance of 338 elderly participants. Comparison of the developmental trajectories for four age groups (50s, 60s, 70s and 80s) supported the HAROLD model, but not the right hemi-ageing model. Performance differences between the verbal memory and visuospatial tasks in the earlier age groups decreased in the later age groups. There was a sex difference in the cognitive-decline trajectories for verbal and visuospatial task performance after the 50s.

  8. Using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling to address nonlinear kinetics and changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation in deriving reference values for propylene glycol methyl ether and propylene glycol methyl ether acetate.

    SciTech Connect

    Kirman, C R.; Sweeney, Lisa M.; Corley, Rick A.; Gargas, M L.

    2005-04-01

    Reference values, including an oral reference dose (RfD) and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC), were derived for propylene glycol methyl ether (PGME), and an oral RfD was derived for its acetate (PGMEA). These values were based upon transient sedation observed in F344 rats and B6C3F1 mice during a two-year inhalation study. The dose-response relationship for sedation was characterized using internal dose measures as predicted by a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PGME and its acetate. PBPK modeling was used to account for changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation, based on data collected during weeks 1, 2, 26, 52, and 78 of a chronic inhalation study. The peak concentration of PGME in richly perfused tissues was selected as the most appropriate internal dose measure based upon a consideration of the mode of action for sedation and similarities in tissue partitioning between brain and other richly perfused tissues. Internal doses (peak tissue concentrations of PGME) were designated as either no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (LOAELs) based upon the presence or absence of sedation at each time-point, species, and sex in the two year study. Distributions of the NOAEL and LOAEL values expressed in terms of internal dose were characterized using an arithmetic mean and standard deviation, with the mean internal NOAEL serving as the basis for the reference values, which was then divided by appropriate uncertainty factors. Where data were permitting, chemical-specific adjustment factors were derived to replace default uncertainty factor values of ten. Nonlinear kinetics are were predicted by the model in all species at PGME concentrations exceeding 100 ppm, which complicates interspecies and low-dose extrapolations. To address this complication, reference values were derived using two approaches which differ with respect to the order in which these extrapolations

  9. Age-related bone loss in the LOU/c rat model of healthy ageing.

    PubMed

    Duque, Gustavo; Rivas, Daniel; Li, Wei; Li, Ailian; Henderson, Janet E; Ferland, Guylaine; Gaudreau, Pierrette

    2009-03-01

    Inbred albino Louvain (LOU) rats are considered a model of healthy aging due to their increased longevity in the absence of obesity and with a low incidence of common age-related diseases. In this study, we characterized the bone phenotype of male and female LOU rats at 4, 20 and 27 months of age using quantitative micro computed tomographic (mCT) imaging, histology and biochemical analysis of circulating bone biomarkers. Bone quality and morphometry of the distal femora, assessed by mCT, was similar in male and female rats at 4 months of age and deteriorated over time. Histochemical staining of undecalcified bone showed a significant reduction in cortical and trabecular bone by 20 months of age. The reduction in mineralized tissue was accompanied by reduced numbers of osteoblasts and osteoclasts and a significant increase in marrow adiposity. Biochemical markers of bone turnover, C-telopeptide and osteocalcin, correlated with the age-related bone loss whereas the calciotropic hormones PTH and vitamin D remained unchanged over time. In summary, aged LOU rats exhibit low-turnover bone loss and marrow fat infiltration, which are the hallmarks of senile osteoporosis, and thus represent a novel model in which to study the molecular mechanisms leading to this disorder.

  10. Exact solution of an evolutionary model without aging.

    PubMed

    Onody, R N; de Medeiros, N G

    1999-09-01

    We introduce an age-structured asexual population model containing all the relevant features of evolutionary aging theories. Beneficial as well as deleterious mutations, heredity, and arbitrary fecundity are present and managed by natural selection. An exact solution without aging is found. We show that fertility is associated with generalized forms of the Fibonacci sequence, while mutations and natural selection are merged into an integral equation which is solved by Fourier series. Average survival probabilities and Malthusian growth exponents are calculated and indicate that the system may exhibit mutational meltdown. The relevance of the model in the context of fissile reproduction groups like many protozoa and coelenterates is discussed.

  11. Exact solution of an evolutionary model without aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onody, Roberto N.; de Medeiros, Nazareno G. F.

    1999-09-01

    We introduce an age-structured asexual population model containing all the relevant features of evolutionary aging theories. Beneficial as well as deleterious mutations, heredity, and arbitrary fecundity are present and managed by natural selection. An exact solution without aging is found. We show that fertility is associated with generalized forms of the Fibonacci sequence, while mutations and natural selection are merged into an integral equation which is solved by Fourier series. Average survival probabilities and Malthusian growth exponents are calculated and indicate that the system may exhibit mutational meltdown. The relevance of the model in the context of fissile reproduction groups like many protozoa and coelenterates is discussed.

  12. The development of small primate models for aging research.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Kathleen E; Austad, Steven N

    2011-01-01

    Nonhuman primate (NHP) aging research has traditionally relied mainly on the rhesus macaque. But the long lifespan, low reproductive rate, and relatively large body size of macaques and related Old World monkeys make them less than ideal models for aging research. Manifold advantages would attend the use of smaller, more rapidly developing, shorter-lived NHP species in aging studies, not the least of which are lower cost and the ability to do shorter research projects. Arbitrarily defining "small" primates as those weighing less than 500 g, we assess small, relatively short-lived species among the prosimians and callitrichids for suitability as models for human aging research. Using the criteria of availability, knowledge about (and ease of) maintenance, the possibility of genetic manipulation (a hallmark of 21st century biology), and similarities to humans in the physiology of age-related changes, we suggest three species--two prosimians (Microcebus murinus and Galago senegalensis) and one New World monkey (Callithrix jacchus)--that deserve scrutiny for development as major NHP models for aging studies. We discuss one other New World monkey group, Cebus spp., that might also be an effective NHP model of aging as these species are longer-lived for their body size than any primate except humans.

  13. The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

    PubMed

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-11-01

    Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms.

  14. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy.

    PubMed

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population.

  15. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population. PMID:27293889

  16. The analysis of aging skin based on multiphoton microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shulian; Li, Hui; Zhang, Xiaoman; Li, Zhifang; Xu, Shufei

    2010-11-01

    Aging is a very important issue not only in dermatology, but also in cosmetic science. Cutaneous aging involves both chronological and photoaging aging process. The chronological aging is induced with the passage of time. And the photoaging skin is the extrinsic aging caused by sun exposure. The aim of this study is to use multiphoton microscopy (MPM) in vivo to assess intrinsic-age-related and photo-age-related difference. The changes of dermal collagen are measured in quantitively. The algorithm that we used automatically produced the transversal dermal map from MPM. Others, the texture of dermis are analyzed by Fourier transform and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix. And the object extraction in textured images is proposed based on the method in object edge extraction, and the aim of it is to detect the object hidden in the skin texture in difference aging skin. The result demonstrates that the approach is effective in detecting the object in epidermis and dermis textured image in different aging skin. It could help to further understand the aging mechanism.

  17. Translating CFC-based piston ages into probability density functions of ground-water age in karst

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2006-01-01

    Temporal age distributions are equivalent to probability density functions (PDFs) of transit time. The type and shape of a PDF provides important information related to ground-water mixing at the well or spring and the complex nature of flow networks in karst aquifers. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentrations measured for samples from 12 locations in the karstic Madison aquifer were used to evaluate the suitability of various PDF types for this aquifer. Parameters of PDFs could not be estimated within acceptable confidence intervals for any of the individual sites. Therefore, metrics derived from CFC-based apparent ages were used to evaluate results of PDF modeling in a more general approach. The ranges of these metrics were established as criteria against which families of PDFs could be evaluated for their applicability to different parts of the aquifer. Seven PDF types, including five unimodal and two bimodal models, were evaluated. Model results indicate that unimodal models may be applicable to areas close to conduits that have younger piston (i.e., apparent) ages and that bimodal models probably are applicable to areas farther from conduits that have older piston ages. The two components of a bimodal PDF are interpreted as representing conduit and diffuse flow, and transit times of as much as two decades may separate these PDF components. Areas near conduits may be dominated by conduit flow, whereas areas farther from conduits having bimodal distributions probably have good hydraulic connection to both diffuse and conduit flow. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Model based manipulator control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petrosky, Lyman J.; Oppenheim, Irving J.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using model based control (MBC) for robotic manipulators was investigated. A double inverted pendulum system was constructed as the experimental system for a general study of dynamically stable manipulation. The original interest in dynamically stable systems was driven by the objective of high vertical reach (balancing), and the planning of inertially favorable trajectories for force and payload demands. The model-based control approach is described and the results of experimental tests are summarized. Results directly demonstrate that MBC can provide stable control at all speeds of operation and support operations requiring dynamic stability such as balancing. The application of MBC to systems with flexible links is also discussed.

  19. Overview of Modeling and Simulations of Plutonium Aging

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, A J; Wolfer, W G

    2007-04-24

    . The alpha particle traverses the lattice, slowly loosing energy through electronic excitations, acquiring two electrons to become a helium atom, then finally coming to rest approximately 10 microns away with the generation of a few-hundred Frenkel pairs. The uranium recoil immediately displaces a couple-thousand Pu atoms from their original lattice sites. This process, which occurs at a rate of approximately 41 parts-per-million per year, is the source of potential property changes in aging plutonium. Plutonium aging encompasses many areas of research: radiation damage and radiation effects, diffusion of point defects, impurities and alloying elements, solid state phase transformations, dislocation dynamics and mechanical properties, equations of state under extreme pressures, as well as surface oxidation and corrosion. Theory, modeling, and computer simulations are involved to various degrees in many of these areas. The joint research program carried out at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory encompassed experimental measurements of numerous properties of newly fabricated reference alloys, archival material that have accumulated the effects of several decades of radioactive decay, and accelerated aging alloys in which the isotropic composition was adjusted to increase the rate of self-irradiation damage. In particular, the physical and chemical processes of nuclear materials degradation were to be studied individually and in great depth. Closely coupled to the experimental efforts are theory, modeling, and simulations. These efforts, validated by the experiments, aim to develop predictive models to evaluate the effects of age on the properties of plutonium. The need to obtain a scientific understanding of plutonium aging has revitalized fundamental research on actinides and plutonium in particular. For example, the experimental discovery of superconductivity in Pu-based compounds, the observation of helium bubbles in naturally

  20. Invertebrates as model organisms for research on aging biology

    PubMed Central

    Murthy, Mahadev; Ram, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Invertebrate model systems, such as nematodes and fruit flies, have provided valuable information about the genetics and cellular biology involved in aging. However, limitations of these simple, genetically tractable organisms suggest the need for other model systems, some of them invertebrate, to facilitate further advances in the understanding of mechanisms of aging and longevity in mammals, including humans. This paper introduces 10 review articles about the use of invertebrate model systems for the study of aging by authors who participated in an ‘NIA-NIH symposium on aging in invertebrate model systems’ at the 2013 International Congress for Invertebrate Reproduction and Development. In contrast to the highly derived characteristics of nematodes and fruit flies as members of the superphylum Ecdysozoa, cnidarians, such as Hydra, are more ‘basal’ organisms that have a greater number of genetic orthologs in common with humans. Moreover, some other new model systems, such as the urochordate Botryllus schlosseri, the tunicate Ciona, and the sea urchins (Echinodermata) are members of the Deuterostomia, the same superphylum that includes all vertebrates, and thus have mechanisms that are likely to be more closely related to those occurring in humans. Additional characteristics of these new model systems, such as the recent development of new molecular and genetic tools and a more similar pattern to humans of regeneration and stem cell function suggest that these new model systems may have unique advantages for the study of mechanisms of aging and longevity. PMID:26241448

  1. Preparing the workforce for healthy aging programs: the Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP) model.

    PubMed

    Frank, Janet C; Altpeter, Mary; Damron-Rodriguez, JoAnn; Driggers, Joann; Lachenmayr, Susan; Manning, Colleen; Martinez, Dana M; Price, Rachel M; Robinson, Patricia

    2014-10-01

    Current public health and aging service agency personnel have little training in gerontology, and virtually no training in evidence-based health promotion and disease management programs for older adults. These programs are rapidly becoming the future of our community-based long-term care support system. The purpose of this project was to develop and test a model community college career technical education program, Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP), for undergraduate college students, current personnel in aging service and community organizations, and others interested in retraining. A multidisciplinary cross-sector team from disciplines of public health, sociology, gerontology and nursing developed four competency-based courses that focus on healthy aging, behavior change strategies, program management, an internship, and an option for leader training in the Chronic Disease Self-Management Program. To enhance implementation and fidelity, intensive faculty development training was provided to all instructors and community agency partners. Baseline and postprogram evaluation of competencies for faculty and students was conducted. Process evaluation for both groups focused on satisfaction with the curricula and suggestions for program improvement. SHARP has been piloted five times at two community colleges. Trainees (n = 113) were primarily community college students (n = 108) and current aging service personnel (n = 5). Statistically significant improvements in all competencies were found for both faculty and students. Process evaluation outcomes identified the needed logical and component adaptations to enhance the feasibility of program implementation, dissemination, and student satisfaction. The SHARP program provides a well-tested, evidence-based effective model for addressing workforce preparation in support of healthy aging service program expansion and delivery.

  2. Age and equity in liver transplantation: An organ allocation model.

    PubMed

    Cucchetti, Alessandro; Ross, Lainie Friedman; Thistlethwaite, J Richard; Vitale, Alessandro; Ravaioli, Matteo; Cescon, Matteo; Ercolani, Giorgio; Burra, Patrizia; Cillo, Umberto; Pinna, Antonio Daniele

    2015-10-01

    A moral liver allocation policy must be fair. We considered a 2-step, 2-principle allocation system called "age mapping." Its first principle, equal opportunity, ensures that candidates of all ages have an equal chance of getting an organ. Its second principle, prudential lifespan equity, allocates younger donor grafts to younger candidates and older donors to older candidates in order to increase the likelihood that all recipients achieve a "full lifespan." Data from 2476 candidates and 1371 consecutive adult liver transplantations (from 1999 to 2012) were used to determine whether age mapping can reduce the gap in years of life lost (YLL) between younger and older recipients. A parametric Weibull prognostic model was developed to estimate total life expectancy after transplantation using survival of the general population matched by sex and age as a reference. Life expectancy from birth was calculated by adding age at transplant and total life expectancy after transplantation. In multivariate analysis, recipient age, hepatitis C virus status, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at transplant of >30, and donor age were significantly related to prognosis after surgery (P < 0.05). The mean (and standard deviation) number of years of life from birth, calculated from the current allocation model, for various age groups were: recipients 18-47 years (n = 340) = 65.2 (3.3); 48-55 years (n = 387) = 72.7 (2.1); 56-61 years (n = 372) = 74.7 (1.7) and for recipients >61 years (n = 272) = 77.4 (1.4). The total number of YLL equaled 523 years. Redistributing liver grafts, using an age mapping algorithm, reduces the lifespan gap between younger and older candidates by 33% (from 12.3% to 8.3%) and achieves a 14% overall reduction of YLL (73 years) compared to baseline liver distribution. In conclusion, deliberately incorporating age into an allocation algorithm promotes fairness and increases efficiency.

  3. Age dependency of base modification in rabbit liver DNA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yamamoto, O.; Fuji, I.; Yoshida, T.; Cox, A. B.; Lett, J. T.

    1988-01-01

    Age-related modifications of DNA bases have been observed in the liver of the New Zealand white (NZW) rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), a lagomorph with a median life span in captivity of 5-7 yr. The ages of the animals studied ranged from 6 wk to 9 yr. After the DNA had been extracted from the liver cell nuclei and hydrolyzed with acid, the bases were analyzed by column chromatography with Cellulofine gels (GC-15-m). Two peaks in the chromatogram, which eluted before the four DNA bases, contained modified bases. Those materials, which were obtained in relatively large amounts from old animals, were highly fluorescent, and were shown to be crosslinked base products by mass spectrometry. The yield of crosslinked products versus rabbit age (greater than 0.5 yr) can be fitted by an exponential function (correlation coefficient: 0.76 +/- 0.09).

  4. "Oxygen supply" as modulator of aging processes: hypoxia and hyperoxia models for aging studies.

    PubMed

    Cataldi, Amelia; Di Giulio, Camillo

    2009-07-01

    Cell growth is regulated by several factors, including oxygen supply, which influence cell metabolism. Aging is characterized by decreased oxygen supply to tissue, a reduction of tissue PO(2) and of the activity of several enzymes and metabolic factors. The oxygen-gradient diffusion at capillary tissue level is essential for the cellular survival, while the homeostasis of the oxygen in the arterial blood is mediated by reflexes sensitive to oxygen decrease and by release of several factors. Aging is correlated with a reduction of cells' oxygen supply concomitant to a parallel decrease in oxygen demand by tissues. Both chronic hypoxia or hyperoxia are considered as stresses. Indeed, in both conditions, free radical species, which damage structural and functional components of the membrane, are generated. ROS (reactive oxygen species) are physiological products of aerobic life and their accumulation affects aging. Because hypoxia per se modulates mitochondria activity, influencing oxygen consumption, hypoxia and aging could share some link. Moreover, the observation that in hypoxia or hyperoxia there is an accumulation of lipofucsine as a general reaction to stress is consistent with the accumulation of such components during aging. Correlation between hypoxia-hyperoxia and life-span remains open until we solve the question of how and why do cells sense oxygen. In other words, to better understand aging we need to know what O(2) species are being sensed by cells. In conclusion, hypoxia and hyperoxia represent an experimental model adequate for studying aging processes.

  5. Mathematically modelling the dynamics of cholesterol metabolism and ageing.

    PubMed

    Morgan, A E; Mooney, K M; Wilkinson, S J; Pickles, N A; Mc Auley, M T

    2016-07-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the UK. This condition becomes increasingly prevalent during ageing; 34.1% and 29.8% of males and females respectively, over 75 years of age have an underlying cardiovascular problem. The dysregulation of cholesterol metabolism is inextricably correlated with cardiovascular health and for this reason low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are routinely used as biomarkers of CVD risk. The aim of this work was to use mathematical modelling to explore how cholesterol metabolism is affected by the ageing process. To do this we updated a previously published whole-body mathematical model of cholesterol metabolism to include an additional 96 mechanisms that are fundamental to this biological system. Additional mechanisms were added to cholesterol absorption, cholesterol synthesis, reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), bile acid synthesis, and their enterohepatic circulation. The sensitivity of the model was explored by the use of both local and global parameter scans. In addition, acute cholesterol feeding was used to explore the effectiveness of the regulatory mechanisms which are responsible for maintaining whole-body cholesterol balance. It was found that our model behaves as a hypo-responder to cholesterol feeding, while both the hepatic and intestinal pools of cholesterol increased significantly. The model was also used to explore the effects of ageing in tandem with three different cholesterol ester transfer protein (CETP) genotypes. Ageing in the presence of an atheroprotective CETP genotype, conferring low CETP activity, resulted in a 0.6% increase in LDL-C. In comparison, ageing with a genotype reflective of high CETP activity, resulted in a 1.6% increase in LDL-C. Thus, the model has illustrated the importance of CETP genotypes such as I405V, and their potential role in healthy ageing.

  6. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    PubMed

    Li, Guoqi; Zhao, Daxuan; Xu, Yi; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  7. Cognitive components underpinning the development of model-based learning.

    PubMed

    Potter, Tracey C S; Bryce, Nessa V; Hartley, Catherine A

    2016-10-29

    Reinforcement learning theory distinguishes "model-free" learning, which fosters reflexive repetition of previously rewarded actions, from "model-based" learning, which recruits a mental model of the environment to flexibly select goal-directed actions. Whereas model-free learning is evident across development, recruitment of model-based learning appears to increase with age. However, the cognitive processes underlying the development of model-based learning remain poorly characterized. Here, we examined whether age-related differences in cognitive processes underlying the construction and flexible recruitment of mental models predict developmental increases in model-based choice. In a cohort of participants aged 9-25, we examined whether the abilities to infer sequential regularities in the environment ("statistical learning"), maintain information in an active state ("working memory") and integrate distant concepts to solve problems ("fluid reasoning") predicted age-related improvements in model-based choice. We found that age-related improvements in statistical learning performance did not mediate the relationship between age and model-based choice. Ceiling performance on our working memory assay prevented examination of its contribution to model-based learning. However, age-related improvements in fluid reasoning statistically mediated the developmental increase in the recruitment of a model-based strategy. These findings suggest that gradual development of fluid reasoning may be a critical component process underlying the emergence of model-based learning.

  8. Rejuvenating Strategies for Stem Cell-Based Therapies in Aging.

    PubMed

    Neves, Joana; Sousa-Victor, Pedro; Jasper, Heinrich

    2017-02-02

    Recent advances in our understanding of tissue regeneration and the development of efficient approaches to induce and differentiate pluripotent stem cells for cell replacement therapies promise exciting avenues for treating degenerative age-related diseases. However, clinical studies and insights from model organisms have identified major roadblocks that normal aging processes impose on tissue regeneration. These new insights suggest that specific targeting of environmental niche components, including growth factors, ECM, and immune cells, and intrinsic stem cell properties that are affected by aging will be critical for the development of new strategies to improve stem cell function and optimize tissue repair processes.

  9. Justification of sexual reproduction by modified Penna model of ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá Martins, J. S.; Stauffer, D.

    2001-05-01

    We generalize the standard Penna bit-string model of biological ageing by assuming that each deleterious mutation diminishes the survival probability in every time interval by a small percentage. This effect is added to the usual lethal but age-dependent effect of the same mutation. We then find strong advantages or disadvantages of sexual reproduction (with males and females) compared to asexual cloning, depending on parameters.

  10. [Morphofunctional and molecular bases of pineal gland aging].

    PubMed

    Khavinson, V Kh; Lin'kova, N S

    2012-01-01

    The review analyzed morphology, molecular and functional aspects of pineal gland aging and methods of it correction. The pineal gland is central organ, which regulates activity of neuroimmunoendocrine, antioxidant and other organisms systems. Functional activity of pineal gland is discreased at aging, which is the reason of melatonin level changing. The molecular and morphology research demonstrated, that pineal gland hadn't strongly pronounced atrophy at aging. Long-term experience showed, that peptides extract of pineal gland epithalamin and synthetic tetrapeptide on it base epithalon restored melatonin secretion in pineal gland and had strong regulatory activity at neuroimmunoendocrine and antioxidant organism systems.

  11. Applicability of Willems model for dental age estimations in Brazilian children.

    PubMed

    Franco, Ademir; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Souza, Paulo Henrique Couto; Willems, Guy

    2013-09-10

    Several studies described tooth development as a reliable pathway for age estimations. Depending on the considered life span, the dental age indicators vary. In children, combinations of developing teeth provide the best information about age. In sub adults third molar mineralization is almost exclusively considered. The aim of this study was, firstly, to verify the Willems model in a Brazilian sample. Secondly, to observe differences between the Willems model and a new developed Brazilian model. Thirdly, the information of permanent teeth (PM) and third molar (TM), development was combined for age estimation in children. A sample of 1357 panoramic radiographs of Brazilian males (M) and females (F), with age between 5 and 23 years was collected. The technique of Gleiser and Hunt modified by Kohler (1955) [34] was applied for third molar staging in the entire sample. The Demirjian staging technique was used on the mandibular left permanent teeth (except third molars) of all individuals from 5 to 15 years. Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics were performed to verify inter- and intra-observer reliabilities. Based on the obtained Demirjian scores the Willems model was verified. Next the data were split to develop a new Brazilian model based on the Willems method and to verify the established model. The accuracy in age prediction between the Willems model and the new Brazilian model was compared. Additionally, regression models including PM, TM and PM plus TM information were compared. The Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics revealed high agreement between observers (0.88 Kappa; 0.93 weighted Kappa). The differences between predicted and chronological age for the verified Willems model were expressed in mean errors of -0.17 and -0.38 year for F and M respectively. The differences in mean error between the new developed Brazilian model and the Willems model were 0.02 (F) and 0.20 (M) year. The regression models combining PT and TM information provided only in the age

  12. Dynamical Masses of Young Stars. I. Discordant Model Ages of Upper Scorpius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Ireland, Michael J.; Dupuy, Trent J.; Kraus, Adam L.

    2016-02-01

    We present the results of a long-term orbit monitoring program, using sparse aperture masking observations taken with NIRC2 on the Keck-II telescope, of seven G- to M-type members of the Upper Scorpius subgroup of the Sco-Cen OB association. We present astrometry and derived orbital elements of the binary systems we have monitored, and also determine the age, component masses, distance, and reddening for each system using the orbital solutions and multi-band photometry, including Hubble Space Telescope photometry, and a Bayesian fitting procedure. We find that the models can be forced into agreement with any individual system by assuming an age, but that age is not consistent across the mass range of our sample. The G-type binary systems in our sample have model ages of ˜11.5 Myr, which is consistent with the latest age estimates for Upper Scorpius, while the M-type binary systems have significantly younger model ages of ˜7 Myr. Based on our fits, this age discrepancy in the models corresponds to a luminosity underprediction of 0.8-0.15 dex, or equivalently an effective temperature overprediction of 100-300 K for M-type stars at a given pre-main-sequence age. We also find that the M-type binary system RXJ 1550.0-2312 has an age (˜16 Myr) and distance (˜85 pc) consistent with membership in the Upper Centaurus Lupus subgroup.

  13. Mathematical Model of Three Age-Structured Transmission Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus

    PubMed Central

    Agusto, Folashade B.; Easley, Shamise; Freeman, Kenneth; Thomas, Madison

    2016-01-01

    We developed a new age-structured deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus. The model is analyzed to gain insights into the qualitative features of its associated equilibria. Some of the theoretical and epidemiological findings indicate that the stable disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes, in the presence of disease induced mortality, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Further analysis of the model indicates that the qualitative dynamics of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. This is further emphasized by the sensitivity analysis results, which shows that the dominant parameters of the model are not altered by the inclusion of age structure. However, the numerical simulations show the flaw of the exclusion of age in the transmission dynamics of chikungunya with regard to control implementations. The exclusion of age structure fails to show the age distribution needed for an effective age based control strategy, leading to a one size fits all blanket control for the entire population. PMID:27190548

  14. Tuberculosis in Cape Town: an age-structured transmission model

    PubMed Central

    Blaser, Nello; Zahnd, Cindy; Hermans, Sabine; Salazar-Vizcaya, Luisa; Estill, Janne; Morrow, Carl; Egger, Matthias; Keiser, Olivia; Wood, Robin

    2015-01-01

    Background Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24 and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. Methods We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. Results The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1,000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged < 5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. Conclusion The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients

  15. Cellular senescence in the Penna model of aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Periwal, Avikar

    2013-11-01

    Cellular senescence is thought to play a major role in age-related diseases, which cause nearly 67% of all human deaths worldwide. Recent research in mice showed that exercising mice had higher levels of telomerase, an enzyme that helps maintain telomere length, than nonexercising mice. A commonly used model for biological aging was proposed by Penna. I propose a modification of the Penna model that incorporates cellular senescence and find an analytical steady-state solution following Coe, Mao, and Cates [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.89.288103 89, 288103 (2002)]. I find that models corresponding to delayed cellular senescence have younger populations that live longer. I fit the model to the United Kingdom's death distribution, which the original Penna model cannot do.

  16. Model-Based Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frisch, Harold P.

    2007-01-01

    Engineers, who design systems using text specification documents, focus their work upon the completed system to meet Performance, time and budget goals. Consistency and integrity is difficult to maintain within text documents for a single complex system and more difficult to maintain as several systems are combined into higher-level systems, are maintained over decades, and evolve technically and in performance through updates. This system design approach frequently results in major changes during the system integration and test phase, and in time and budget overruns. Engineers who build system specification documents within a model-based systems environment go a step further and aggregate all of the data. They interrelate all of the data to insure consistency and integrity. After the model is constructed, the various system specification documents are prepared, all from the same database. The consistency and integrity of the model is assured, therefore the consistency and integrity of the various specification documents is insured. This article attempts to define model-based systems relative to such an environment. The intent is to expose the complexity of the enabling problem by outlining what is needed, why it is needed and how needs are being addressed by international standards writing teams.

  17. Age-Related Differences in the Accuracy of Web Query-Based Predictions of Influenza-Like Illness

    PubMed Central

    Domnich, Alexander; Panatto, Donatella; Signori, Alessio; Lai, Piero Luigi; Gasparini, Roberto; Amicizia, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    Background Web queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI). However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspective of age. Methods Since Google Flu Trends is unavailable in Italy, Google Trends was used to identify entry terms that correlated highly with official ILI surveillance data. All-age and age-class-specific modeling was performed by means of linear models with generalized least-square estimation. Hold-out validation was used to quantify prediction accuracy. For purposes of comparison, predictions generated by exponential smoothing were computed. Results Five search terms showed high correlation coefficients of > .6. In comparison with exponential smoothing, the all-age query-based model correctly predicted the peak time and yielded a higher correlation coefficient with observed ILI morbidity (.978 vs. .929). However, query-based prediction of ILI morbidity was associated with a greater error. Age-class-specific query-based models varied significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. In the 0–4 and 25–44-year age-groups, these did well and outperformed exponential smoothing predictions; in the 15–24 and ≥ 65-year age-classes, however, the query-based models were inaccurate and highly overestimated peak height. In all but one age-class, peak timing predicted by the query-based models coincided with observed timing. Conclusions The accuracy of web query-based models in predicting ILI morbidity rates could differ among ages. Greater age-specific detail may be useful in flu query-based studies in order to account for age-specific features of the epidemiology of ILI. PMID:26011418

  18. The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

    2014-07-01

    A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in

  19. An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

    2009-01-01

    The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

  20. Predicting healthy older adult's brain age based on structural connectivity networks using artificial neural networks.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lan; Jin, Cong; Fu, Zhenrong; Zhang, Baiwen; Bin, Guangyu; Wu, Shuicai

    2016-03-01

    Brain ageing is followed by changes of the connectivity of white matter (WM) and changes of the grey matter (GM) concentration. Neurodegenerative disease is more vulnerable to an accelerated brain ageing, which is associated with prospective cognitive decline and disease severity. Accurate detection of accelerated ageing based on brain network analysis has a great potential for early interventions designed to hinder atypical brain changes. To capture the brain ageing, we proposed a novel computational approach for modeling the 112 normal older subjects (aged 50-79 years) brain age by connectivity analyses of networks of the brain. Our proposed method applied principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the redundancy in network topological parameters. Back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) improved by hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is established to model the relation among principal components (PCs) and brain age. The predicted brain age is strongly correlated with chronological age (r=0.8). The model has mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.29 years. Therefore, we believe the method can provide a possible way to quantitatively describe the typical and atypical network organization of human brain and serve as a biomarker for presymptomatic detection of neurodegenerative diseases in the future.

  1. Model Based Definition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rowe, Sidney E.

    2010-01-01

    In September 2007, the Engineering Directorate at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) created the Design System Focus Team (DSFT). MSFC was responsible for the in-house design and development of the Ares 1 Upper Stage and the Engineering Directorate was preparing to deploy a new electronic Configuration Management and Data Management System with the Design Data Management System (DDMS) based upon a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) Product Data Management (PDM) System. The DSFT was to establish standardized CAD practices and a new data life cycle for design data. Of special interest here, the design teams were to implement Model Based Definition (MBD) in support of the Upper Stage manufacturing contract. It is noted that this MBD does use partially dimensioned drawings for auxiliary information to the model. The design data lifecycle implemented several new release states to be used prior to formal release that allowed the models to move through a flow of progressive maturity. The DSFT identified some 17 Lessons Learned as outcomes of the standards development, pathfinder deployments and initial application to the Upper Stage design completion. Some of the high value examples are reviewed.

  2. Past and recent attempts to model mortality at all ages.

    PubMed

    Hartmann, M

    1987-01-01

    "Most laws of mortality are partial in the sense that they apply only to a broad age group and not to all ages. This paper focuses on three laws of mortality that apply to all ages. Two of them were developed by the actuaries Thiele and Wittstein in the late 19th century. The third, developed by Heligman and Pollard, is of recent origin. The three laws are discussed with references to Scandinavian mortality data. The results suggest that the most recently proposed law can be used for generation of model life tables, for making population projections, simulations, and other statistical work where there is a need for a realistic model of human mortality."

  3. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Djordjevic, Ivan B.

    2015-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually

  4. Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution.

    PubMed

    Djordjevic, Ivan B

    2015-08-24

    Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually

  5. Age of stratospheric air and aging by mixing in global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garny, Hella; Dietmüller, Simone; Plöger, Felix; Birner, Thomas; Bönisch, Harald; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The Brewer-Dobson circulation is often quantified by the integrated transport measure age of air (AoA). AoA is affected by all transport processes, including transport along the residual mean mass circulation and two-way mixing. A large spread in the simulation of AoA by current global models exists. Using CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 global model data, we show that this spread can only in small parts be attributed to differences in the simulated residual circulation. Instead, large differences in the "mixing efficiency" strongly contribute to the differences in the simulated AoA. The "mixing efficiency" is defined as the ratio of the two-way mixing mass flux across the subtropical barrier to the net (residual) mass flux, and this mixing efficiency controls the relative increase in AoA by mixing. We derive the mixing efficiency from global model data using the analytical solution of a simplified version of the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, in which vertical diffusion is neglected. Thus, it is assumed that only residual mean transport and horizontal two-way mixing across the subtropical barrier controls AoA. However, in global models vertical mixing and numerical diffusion modify AoA, and these processes likely contribute to the differences in the mixing efficiency between models. We explore the contributions of diffusion and mixing on mean AoA by a) using simulations with the tropical leaky pipe model including vertical diffusion and b) explicit calculations of aging by mixing on resolved scales. Using the TLP model, we show that vertical diffusion leads to a decrease in tropical AoA, i.e. counteracts the increase in tropical mean AoA due to horizontal mixing. Thus, neglecting vertical diffusion leads to an underestimation of the mixing efficiency. With explicit calculations of aging by mixing via integration of daily local mixing tendencies along residual circulation trajectories, we explore the contributions of vertical and horizontal mixing for aging by mixing. The

  6. Evaluation of a Community-Based Aging Intervention Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Hui-Chuan; Wang, Chun-Hou; Chen, Yi-Chun; Chang, Ming-Chen; Wang, Jean

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the outcome and process of a community-based aging intervention program for the elderly in Taiwan. The program included education on nutrition and dietary behavior and on physical activities. Outcome and process evaluations were conducted. The program may have had some effects on decreasing some dietary behavioral problems and…

  7. Mathematical modeling of left ventricular dimensional changes in mice during aging

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Cardiac aging is characterized by diastolic dysfunction of the left ventricle (LV), which is due in part to increased LV wall stiffness. In the diastolic phase, myocytes are relaxed and extracellular matrix (ECM) is a critical determinant to the changes of LV wall stiffness. To evaluate the effects of ECM composition on cardiac aging, we developed a mathematical model to predict LV dimension and wall stiffness changes in aging mice by integrating mechanical laws and our experimental results. We measured LV dimension, wall thickness, LV mass, and collagen content for wild type (WT) C57/BL6J mice of ages ranging from 7.3 months to those of 34.0 months. The model was established using the thick wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to an isotropic and homogeneous elastic composite with mixed constituents. The initial conditions of the simulation were set based on the data from the young mice. Matlab simulations of this mathematical model demonstrated that the model captured the major features of LV remodeling with age and closely approximated experimental results. Specifically, the temporal progression of the LV interior and exterior dimensions demonstrated the same trend and order-of-magnitude change as our experimental results. In conclusion, we present here a validated mathematical model of cardiac aging that applies the thick-wall theory and stretch-induced tissue growth to LV remodeling with age. PMID:23281647

  8. Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Johannes; Tingley, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Reconstructions of late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurement on tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances may be achievable if time uncertain proxies could be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches to accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time uncertain proxies. Critically, while a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the climate reconstruction, as compared with the current de-facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments. Werner and Tingley, Climate of the Past Discussions (2014)

  9. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J. P.; Tingley, M. P.

    2015-03-01

    Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  10. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J. P.; Tingley, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Reconstructions of late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurement on tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances may be achievable if time uncertain proxies could be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches to accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time uncertain proxies. Critically, while a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age-model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the climate reconstruction, as compared with the current de-facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  11. Incompatible Ages for Clearwing Butterflies Based on Alternative Secondary Calibrations.

    PubMed

    Garzón-Orduña, Ivonne J; Silva-Brandão, Karina L; Willmott, Keith R; Freitas, André V L; Brower, Andrew V Z

    2015-09-01

    The recent publication of a time-tree for the plant family Solanaceae (nightshades) provides the opportunity to use independent calibrations to test divergence times previously inferred for the diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini. Ithomiini includes clades that are obligate herbivores of Solanaceae, with some genera feeding on only one genus. We used 8 calibrations extracted from the plant tree in a new relaxed molecular-clock analysis to produce an alternative temporal framework for the diversification of ithomiines. We compared the resulting age estimates to: (i) a time-tree obtained using 7 secondary calibrations from the Nymphalidae tree of Wahlberg et al. (2009), and (ii) Wahlberg et al.'s (2009) original age estimates for the same clades. We found that Bayesian clock estimates were rather sensitive to a variety of analytical parameters, including taxon sampling. Regardless of this sensitivity however, ithomiine divergence times calibrated with the ages of nightshades were always on average half the age of previous estimates. Younger dates for ithomiine clades appear to fit better with factors long suggested to have promoted diversification of the group such as the uplifting of the Andes, in the case of montane genera. Alternatively, if ithomiines are as old as previous estimates suggest, the recent ages inferred for the diversification of Solanaceae seem likely to be seriously underestimated. Our study exemplifies the difficulty of testing hypotheses of divergence times and of choosing between alternative dating scenarios, and shows that age estimates based on seemingly plausible calibrations may be grossly incongruent.

  12. Network model of human aging: Frailty limits and information measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farrell, Spencer G.; Mitnitski, Arnold B.; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew D.

    2016-11-01

    Aging is associated with the accumulation of damage throughout a persons life. Individual health can be assessed by the Frailty Index (FI). The FI is calculated simply as the proportion f of accumulated age-related deficits relative to the total, leading to a theoretical maximum of f ≤1 . Observational studies have generally reported a much more stringent bound, with f ≤fmax<1 . The value of fmax in observational studies appears to be nonuniversal, but fmax≈0.7 is often reported. A previously developed network model of individual aging was unable to recover fmax<1 while retaining the other observed phenomenology of increasing f and mortality rates with age. We have developed a computationally accelerated network model that also allows us to tune the scale-free network exponent α . The network exponent α significantly affects the growth of mortality rates with age. However, we are only able to recover fmax by also introducing a deficit sensitivity parameter 1 -q , which is equivalent to a false-negative rate q . Our value of q =0.3 is comparable to finite sensitivities of age-related deficits with respect to mortality that are often reported in the literature. In light of nonzero q , we use mutual information I to provide a nonparametric measure of the predictive value of the FI with respect to individual mortality. We find that I is only modestly degraded by q <1 , and this degradation is mitigated when increasing number of deficits are included in the FI. We also find that the information spectrum, i.e., the mutual information of individual deficits versus connectivity, has an approximately power-law dependence that depends on the network exponent α . Mutual information I is therefore a useful tool for characterizing the network topology of aging populations.

  13. Rotifers as models for the biology of aging.

    PubMed

    Snell, Terry W

    2014-03-01

    It has been two decades since 1993 when research on the biology of rotifer aging was last reviewed by Enesco. Much has transpired during this time as rotifer biologists have adapted to the "omics" revolution and incorporated these techniques into the experimental analysis of rotifers. Rotifers are amenable to many of these approaches and getting adequate quantities of DNA, RNA, and protein from rotifers is not difficult. Analysis of rotifer genomes, transcriptomes, and proteomes is rapidly yielding candidate genes that likely regulate a variety of features of rotifer biology. Parallel developments in aging biology have recognized the limitations of standard animal models like worms and flies and that comparative aging research has essentially ignored a large fraction of animal phylogeny in the lophotrochozoans. As experimentally tractable members of this group, rotifers have attracted interest as models of aging. In this paper, I review advances over the past 20 years in the biology of aging in rotifers, with emphasis on the unique contributions of rotifer models for understanding aging. The majority of experimental work has manipulated rotifer diet and followed changes in survival and reproductive dynamics like mean lifespan, maximum lifespan, reproductive lifespan, and mortality rate doubling time. The main dietary manipulation has been some form of caloric restriction, withholding food for some period or feeding continuously at low levels. There have been comparative studies of several rotifer species, with some species responding to caloric restriction with life extension, but others not, at least under the tested food regimens. Other aspects of diet are less explored, like nutritional properties of different algae species and their capacity to extend rotifer lifespan. Several descriptive studies have reported many genes involved in rotifer aging by comparing gene expression in young and old individuals. Classes of genes up or down-regulated during aging have

  14. Rotifers as models for the biology of aging

    PubMed Central

    Snell, Terry W.

    2013-01-01

    It has been two decades since 1993 when research on the biology of rotifer aging was last reviewed by Enesco. Much has transpired during this time as rotifer biologists have adapted to the “omics” revolution and incorporated these techniques into the experimental analysis of rotifers. Rotifers are amenable to many of these approaches and getting adequate quantities of DNA, RNA, and protein from rotifers is not difficult. Analysis of rotifer genomes, transcriptomes, and proteomes is rapidly yielding candidate genes that likely regulate a variety of features of rotifer biology. Parallel developments in aging biology have recognized the limitations of standard animal models like worms and flies and that comparative aging research has essentially ignored a large fraction of animal phylogeny in the lophotrochozoans. As experimentally tractable members of this group, rotifers have attracted interest as models of aging. In this paper, I review advances over the past 20 years in the biology of aging in rotifers, with emphasis on the unique contributions of rotifer models for understanding aging. The majority of experimental work has manipulated rotifer diet and followed changes in survival and reproductive dynamics like mean lifespan, maximum lifespan, reproductive lifespan, and mortality rate doubling time. The main dietary manipulation has been some form of caloric restriction, withholding food for some period or feeding continuously at low levels. There have been comparative studies of several rotifer species, with some species responding to caloric restriction with life extension, but others not, at least under the tested food regimens. Other aspects of diet are less explored, like nutritional properties of different algae species and their capacity to extend rotifer lifespan. Several descriptive studies have reported many genes involved in rotifer aging by comparing gene expression in young and old individuals. Classes of genes up or down-regulated during aging

  15. Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration.

    PubMed

    Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Forster, Jonathan J; Smith, Peter W F; Bijak, Jakub; Raymer, James

    2016-10-01

    Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

  16. Aging, Neurogenesis, and Caloric Restriction in Different Model Organisms

    PubMed Central

    Arslan-Ergul, Ayca; Ozdemir, A Tugrul; Adams, Michelle M

    2013-01-01

    Brain aging is a multifactorial process that is occurring across multiple cognitive domains. A significant complaint that occurs in the elderly is a decrement in learning and memory ability. Both rodents and zebrafish exhibit a similar problem with memory during aging. The neurobiological changes that underlie this cognitive decline are complex and undoubtedly influenced by many factors. Alterations in the birth of new neurons and neuron turnover may contribute to age-related cognitive problems. Caloric restriction is the only non-genetic intervention that reliably increases life span and healthspan across multiple organisms although the molecular mechanisms are not well-understood. Recently the zebrafish has become a popular model organism for understanding the neurobiological consequences but to date very little work has been performed. Similarly, few studies have examined the effects of dietary restriction in zebrafish. Here we review the literature related to memory decline, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction across model organisms and suggest that zebrafish has the potential to be an important animal model for understanding the complex interactions between age, neurobiological changes in the brain, and dietary regimens or their mimetics as interventions. PMID:23936746

  17. [The use of biological age on mental work capacity model in accelerated aging assessment of professional lorry-drivers].

    PubMed

    Bashkireva, A S

    2012-01-01

    The studies of biological age, aging rate, mental work capacity in professional drivers were conducted. The examination revealed peculiarities of system organization of functions determining the mental work capacity levels. Dynamics of the aging process of professional driver's organism in relation with calendar age and driving experience were shown using the biological age model. The results point at the premature decrease of the mental work capacity in professional drivers. It was proved, that premature age-related changes of physiologic and psychophysiologic indices in drivers are just "risk indicators", while long driving experience is a real risk factor, accelerating the aging process. The "risk group" with manifestations of accelerating aging was observed in 40-49-year old drivers with 15-19 years of professional experience. The expediency of using the following methods for the age rate estimation according to biologic age indices and necessity of prophylactic measures for premature and accelerated aging prevention among working population was demonstrated.

  18. Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

    2016-06-01

    An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the consecutive "m out of n: F" is presented as well.

  19. Scaling in a Continuous Time Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.; Thomas, G. L.

    In this paper, we consider a generalization to the asexual version of Penna model for biological aging, where we take a continuous time limit. The genotype associated to each individual is an interval of real numbers over which Dirac δ-functions are defined, representing genetically programmed diseases to be switched on at defined ages of the individual life. We discuss two different continuous limits for the evolution equation and two different mutation protocols, to be implemented during reproduction. Exact stationary solutions are obtained and scaling properties are discussed.

  20. Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model.

    PubMed

    Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuğrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

    2015-02-01

    We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ(-α). Depending on the exponent α, the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α=1) tree depth grows as (logn)(2). This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point.

  1. Parameterization of European perch Perca fluviatilis length-at-age data using stochastic Gompertz growth models.

    PubMed

    Troynikov, V S; Gorfine, H K; Ložys, L; Pūtys, Z; Jakubavičiūtė, E; Day, R W

    2011-12-01

    Three stochastic versions of the Gompertz growth model were used to parameterize total length (L(T) )-at-age data for perch Perca fluviatilis, an important target species for commercial and recreational fishers and a food species for predatory fishes and aquatic birds. Each model addresses growth heterogeneity by incorporating random parameters from a specific positive distribution: Weibull, gamma or log-normal. The modelling outputs for each version of the model provide L(T) distributions for selected ages and percentiles of L(T) at age for both males and females. The results highlight the importance of using a stochastic approach and the logistic-like growth pattern for analysing growth data for P. fluviatilis in Curonian Lagoon (Lithuania). Outputs from this modelling can be extended to a stochastic analysis of fish cohort dynamics, incorporating all length-based biological relationships, and the selectivity-related interactions between fish cohorts and fishing gear.

  2. Predicting age-related differences in visual information processing using a two-stage queuing model.

    PubMed

    Ellis, R D; Goldberg, J H; Detweiler, M C

    1996-05-01

    Recent work on age-related differences in some types of visual information processing has qualitatively stated that younger adults are able to develop parallel processing capability, while older adults remain serial processors. A mathematical model based on queuing theory was used to quantitatively predict and parameterize age-related differences in the perceptual encoding and central decision-making aspects of a multiple-frame search task. Statistical results indicated main effects for frame duration, display load, age group, and session of practice. Comparison of the full model and a restricted model indicated an efficient contribution of the encoding speed parameter. The best-fitting parameter set indicated that (1) younger participants processed task information with a two-channel parallel system, while older participants were serial processors; and (2) perceptual encoding had a large impact on age-related differences in task performance. Results are discussed with implications for human factors design principles.

  3. Age-Based Methods to Explore Time-Related Variables in Occupational Epidemiology Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Janice P. Watkins, Edward L. Frome, Donna L. Cragle

    2005-08-31

    Although age is recognized as the strongest predictor of mortality in chronic disease epidemiology, a calendar-based approach is often employed when evaluating time-related variables. An age-based analysis file, created by determining the value of each time-dependent variable for each age that a cohort member is followed, provides a clear definition of age at exposure and allows development of diverse analytic models. To demonstrate methods, the relationship between cancer mortality and external radiation was analyzed with Poisson regression for 14,095 Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. Based on previous analysis of this cohort, a model with ten-year lagged cumulative radiation doses partitioned by receipt before (dose-young) or after (dose-old) age 45 was examined. Dose-response estimates were similar to calendar-year-based results with elevated risk for dose-old, but not when film badge readings were weekly before 1957. Complementary results showed increasing risk with older hire ages and earlier birth cohorts, since workers hired after age 45 were born before 1915, and dose-young and dose-old were distributed differently by birth cohorts. Risks were generally higher for smokingrelated than non-smoking-related cancers. It was difficult to single out specific variables associated with elevated cancer mortality because of: (1) birth cohort differences in hire age and mortality experience completeness, and (2) time-period differences in working conditions, dose potential, and exposure assessment. This research demonstrated the utility and versatility of the age-based approach.

  4. Disentangling trait-based mortality in species with decoupled size and age.

    PubMed

    O'Farrell, Shay; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; van Rooij, Jules M; Mumby, Peter J

    2015-09-01

    1. Size and age are fundamental organismal traits, and typically, both are good predictors of mortality. For many species, however, size and age predict mortality in ontogenetically opposing directions. Specifically, mortality due to predation is often more intense on smaller individuals whereas mortality due to senescence impacts, by definition, on older individuals. 2. When size-based and age-based mortality are independent in this manner, modelling mortality in both traits is often necessary. Classical approaches, such as Leslie or Lefkovitch matrices, usually require the model to infer the state of one trait from the state of the other, for example by assuming that explicitly modelled age (or stage) class structure provides implicit information on underlying size-class structure, as is the case in many species. 3. However, the assumption that one trait informs on the other is challenged when size and age are decoupled, as often occurs in invertebrates, amphibians, fish, reptiles and plants. In these cases, age-structured models may perform poorly at capturing size-based mortality, and vice versa. 4. We offer a solution to this dilemma, relaxing the assumption that class structure in one trait is inferable from class structure in another trait. Using empirical data from a reef fish, Sparisoma viride (Scaridae), we demonstrate how an individual-based model (IBM) can be implemented to model mortality as explicit, independent and simultaneous functions of individual size and age - an approach that mimics the effects of mortality in many wild populations. By validating this 'multitrait IBM' against three independent lines of empirical data, we determine that the approach produces more convincing predictions of size-class structure, longevity and post-settlement mortality for S. viride than do the trait-independent or single-trait mortality models tested. 5. Multitrait IBMs also allow trait-based mortality to be modelled either additively or multiplicatively, and

  5. Modeling Manufacturing Impacts on Aging and Reliability of Polyurethane Foams

    SciTech Connect

    Rao, Rekha R.; Roberts, Christine Cardinal; Mondy, Lisa Ann; Soehnel, Melissa Marie; Johnson, Kyle; Lorenzo, Henry T.

    2016-10-01

    Polyurethane is a complex multiphase material that evolves from a viscous liquid to a system of percolating bubbles, which are created via a CO2 generating reaction. The continuous phase polymerizes to a solid during the foaming process generating heat. Foams introduced into a mold increase their volume up to tenfold, and the dynamics of the expansion process may lead to voids and will produce gradients in density and degree of polymerization. These inhomogeneities can lead to structural stability issues upon aging. For instance, structural components in weapon systems have been shown to change shape as they age depending on their molding history, which can threaten critical tolerances. The purpose of this project is to develop a Cradle-to-Grave multiphysics model, which allows us to predict the material properties of foam from its birth through aging in the stockpile, where its dimensional stability is important.

  6. Impact of aging mechanism on model simulated carbonaceous aerosols

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Y.; Wu, S.; Dubey, M.K.; French, N. H. F.

    2013-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols including organic carbon and black carbon have significant implications for both climate and air quality. In the current global climate or chemical transport models, a fixed hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic conversion lifetime for carbonaceous aerosol (τ) is generally assumed, which is usually around one day. We have implemented a new detailed aging scheme for carbonaceous aerosols in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to account for both the chemical oxidation and the physical condensation-coagulation effects, where τ is affected by local atmospheric environment including atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, ozone, hydroxyl radical and sulfuric acid. The updated τ exhibits large spatial and temporal variations with the global average (up to 11 km altitude) calculated to be 2.6 days. The chemical aging effects are found to be strongest over the tropical regions driven by the low ozone concentrations and high humidity there. The τ resulted from chemical aging generally decreases with altitude due to increases in ozone concentration and decreases in humidity. The condensation-coagulation effects are found to be most important for the high-latitude areas, in particular the polar regions, where the τ values are calculated to be up to 15 days. When both the chemical aging and condensation-coagulation effects are considered, the total atmospheric burdens and global average lifetimes of BC, black carbon, (OC, organic carbon) are calculated to increase by 9% (3%) compared to the control simulation, with considerable enhancements of BC and OC concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere. Model evaluations against data from multiple datasets show that the updated aging scheme improves model simulations of carbonaceous aerosols for some regions, especially for the remote areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The improvement helps explain the persistent low model bias for carbonaceous aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere reported in literature. Further

  7. The acne continuum: an age-based approach to therapy.

    PubMed

    Friedlander, Sheila Fallon; Baldwin, Hilary E; Mancini, Anthony J; Yan, Albert C; Eichenfield, Lawrence F

    2011-09-01

    Acne vulgaris is classically considered a disease of adolescence. Although it most commonly occurs and has been best studied in that age group, it can develop at any time during childhood. It is important that health care practitioners recognize the manifestations of neonatal, infantile and childhood acne, as well as the differential diagnosis and best therapeutic approach in the younger child. Acneiform eruptions in infants and toddlers can occasionally be associated with scarring or with other significant disorders that may be life-threatening. In this article, the authors draw on their own clinical experience as well as the available literature to suggest an age-based approach to managing acne in children from the neonatal period through age 11 years.

  8. Genetic mouse models of brain ageing and Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Bilkei-Gorzo, Andras

    2014-05-01

    Progression of brain ageing is influenced by a complex interaction of genetic and environmental factors. Analysis of genetically modified animals with uniform genetic backgrounds in a standardised, controlled environment enables the dissection of critical determinants of brain ageing on a molecular level. Human and animal studies suggest that increased load of damaged macromolecules, efficacy of DNA maintenance, mitochondrial activity, and cellular stress defences are critical determinants of brain ageing. Surprisingly, mouse lines with genetic impairment of anti-oxidative capacity generally did not show enhanced cognitive ageing but rather an increased sensitivity to oxidative challenge. Mouse lines with impaired mitochondrial activity had critically short life spans or severe and rapidly progressing neurodegeneration. Strains with impaired clearance in damaged macromolecules or defects in the regulation of cellular stress defences showed alterations in the onset and progression of cognitive decline. Importantly, reduced insulin/insulin-like growth factor signalling generally increased life span but impaired cognitive functions revealing a complex interaction between ageing of the brain and of the body. Brain ageing is accompanied by an increased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. Transgenic mouse models expressing high levels of mutant human amyloid precursor protein showed a number of symptoms and pathophysiological processes typical for early phase of Alzheimer's disease. Generally, therapeutic strategies effective against Alzheimer's disease in humans were also active in the Tg2576, APP23, APP/PS1 and 5xFAD lines, but a large number of false positive findings were also reported. The 3xtg AD model likely has the highest face and construct validity but further studies are needed.

  9. Geophysical Age Dating of Seamounts using Dense Core Flexure Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Gyuha; Kim, Seung-Sep

    2016-04-01

    Lithospheric flexure of oceanic plate is thermo-mechanical response of an elastic plate to the given volcanic construct (e.g., seamounts and ocean islands). If the shape and mass of such volcanic loads are known, the flexural response is governed by the thickness of elastic plate, Te. As the age of oceanic plate increases, the elastic thickness of oceanic lithosphere becomes thicker. Thus, we can relate Te with the age of plate at the time of loading. To estimate the amount of the driving force due to seamounts on elastic plate, one needs to approximate their density structure. The most common choice is uniform density model, which utilizes constant density value for a seamount. This approach simplifies computational processes for gravity prediction and error estimates. However, the uniform density model tends to overestimate the total mass of the seamount and hence produces more positive gravitational contributions from the load. Minimization of gravity misfits using uniform density, therefore, favors thinner Te in order to increase negative contributions from the lithospheric flexure, which can compensate for the excessive positives from the seamount. An alternative approach is dense core model, which approximate the heterogeneity nature of seamount density as three bodies of infill sediment, edifice, and dense core. In this study, we apply the dense core model to the Louisville Seamount Chain for constraining flexural deformation. We compare Te estimates with the loading time of the examined seamounts to redefine empirical geophysical age dating of seamounts.

  10. Automatic age and gender classification using supervised appearance model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bukar, Ali Maina; Ugail, Hassan; Connah, David

    2016-11-01

    Age and gender classification are two important problems that recently gained popularity in the research community, due to their wide range of applications. Research has shown that both age and gender information are encoded in the face shape and texture, hence the active appearance model (AAM), a statistical model that captures shape and texture variations, has been one of the most widely used feature extraction techniques for the aforementioned problems. However, AAM suffers from some drawbacks, especially when used for classification. This is primarily because principal component analysis (PCA), which is at the core of the model, works in an unsupervised manner, i.e., PCA dimensionality reduction does not take into account how the predictor variables relate to the response (class labels). Rather, it explores only the underlying structure of the predictor variables, thus, it is no surprise if PCA discards valuable parts of the data that represent discriminatory features. Toward this end, we propose a supervised appearance model (sAM) that improves on AAM by replacing PCA with partial least-squares regression. This feature extraction technique is then used for the problems of age and gender classification. Our experiments show that sAM has better predictive power than the conventional AAM.

  11. Nothobranchius as a model for aging studies. A review

    PubMed Central

    Lucas-Sánchez, Alejandro; Almaida-Pagán, Pedro Francisco; Mendiola, Pilar; de Costa, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    In recent decades, the increase in human longevity has made it increasingly important to expand our knowledge on aging. To accomplish this, the use of animal models is essential, with the most common being mouse (phylogenetically similar to humans, and a model with a long life expectancy) and Caenorhabditis elegans (an invertebrate with a short life span, but quite removed from us in evolutionary terms). However, some sort of model is needed to bridge the differences between those mentioned above, achieving a balance between phylogenetic distance and life span. Fish of the genus Nothobranchius were suggested 10 years ago as a possible alternative for the study of the aging process. In the meantime, numerous studies have been conducted at different levels: behavioral (including the study of the rest-activity rhythm), populational, histochemical, biochemical and genetic, among others, with very positive results. This review compiles what we know about Nothobranchius to date, and examines its future prospects as a true alternative to the classic models for studies on aging. PMID:25110612

  12. Effect of age-based and environment-based cues on reproductive investment in Gambusia affinis

    PubMed Central

    Billman, Eric J; Belk, Mark C

    2014-01-01

    We examined the multivariate life-history trajectories of age 0 and age 1 female Gambusia affinis to determine relative effects of age-based and environment-based cues on reproductive investment. Age 0 females decreased reproductive investment prior to the onset of fall and winter months, while age 1 females increased reproductive investment as the summer progressed. The reproductive restraint and terminal investment patterns exhibited by age 0 and age 1 females, respectively, were consistent with the predictions from the cost of reproduction hypothesis. Age 0 females responded to environment-based cues, decreasing reproductive investment to increase the probability of overwinter survival and subsequent reproductive opportunities in the following summer. Age 1 females responded to age-based cues, or the proximity of death, increasing investment to current reproduction as future reproductive opportunities decreased late in life. Thus, individuals use multiple cues to determine the level of reproductive investment, and the response to each cue is dependent on the age of an individual. PMID:24967079

  13. Cycle ageing analysis of a LiFePO4/graphite cell with dynamic model validations: Towards realistic lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarasketa-Zabala, E.; Gandiaga, I.; Martinez-Laserna, E.; Rodriguez-Martinez, L. M.; Villarreal, I.

    2015-02-01

    The present investigation work compares cycling ageing behaviour upon constant operation conditions (static tests) with degradation under non-constant schemes (dynamic tests), through a novel methodology for ageing model dynamic validation. A LFP-based Li-ion cell performance loss is analysed using a DOD and C-rate stress factors Ah-throughput-domain characterisation method, and represented using a semi-empirical model. The proposed stepwise validation approach enables assessing the static ageing tests acceleration factor and systematically improving the ageing model. The result is a simple but comprehensive model. The predictions root-mean-square error, under dynamic cycling operation conditions, is just 1.75%.

  14. Spectral age modelling of the `Sausage' cluster radio relic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroe, Andra; Harwood, Jeremy J.; Hardcastle, Martin J.; Röttgering, Huub J. A.

    2014-12-01

    CIZA J2242.8+5301 is a post-core passage, binary merging cluster that hosts a large, thin, arc-like radio relic, nicknamed the `Sausage', tracing a relatively strong shock front. We perform spatially resolved spectral fitting to the available radio data for this radio relic, using a variety of spectral ageing models, with the aim of finding a consistent set of parameters for the shock and radio plasma. We determine an injection index of 0.77^{+0.03}_{-0.02} for the relic plasma, significantly steeper than was found before. Standard particle acceleration at the shock front implies a Mach number M=2.90^{+0.10}_{-0.13}, which now matches X-ray measurements. The shock advance speed is vshock ≈ 2500 km s-1, which places the core passage of the two subclusters 0.6-0.8 Gyr ago. We find a systematic spectral age increase from 0 at the northern side of the relic up to ˜60 Myr at ˜145 kpc into the downstream area, assuming a 0.6 nT magnetic field. Under the assumption of freely ageing electrons after acceleration by the `Sausage' shock, the spectral ages are hard to reconcile with the shock speed derived from X-ray and radio observations. Re-acceleration or unusually efficient transport of particle in the downstream area and line-of-sight mixing could help explain the systematically low spectral ages.

  15. Autophagy and ageing: insights from invertebrate model organisms.

    PubMed

    Lionaki, Eirini; Markaki, Maria; Tavernarakis, Nektarios

    2013-01-01

    Ageing in diverse species ranging from yeast to humans is associated with the gradual, lifelong accumulation of molecular and cellular damage. Autophagy, a conserved lysosomal, self-destructive process involved in protein and organelle degradation, plays an essential role in both cellular and whole-animal homeostasis. Accumulating evidence now indicates that autophagic degradation declines with age and this gradual reduction of autophagy might have a causative role in the functional deterioration of biological systems during ageing. Indeed, loss of autophagy gene function significantly influences longevity. Moreover, genetic or pharmacological manipulations that extend lifespan in model organisms often activate autophagy. Interestingly, conserved signalling pathways and environmental factors that regulate ageing, such as the insulin/IGF-1 signalling pathway and oxidative stress response pathways converge on autophagy. In this article, we survey recent findings in invertebrates that contribute to advance our understanding of the molecular links between autophagy and the regulation of ageing. In addition, we consider related mechanisms in other organisms and discuss their similarities and idiosyncratic features in a comparative manner.

  16. Accelerated failure time models provide a useful statistical framework for aging research.

    PubMed

    Swindell, William R

    2009-03-01

    Survivorship experiments play a central role in aging research and are performed to evaluate whether interventions alter the rate of aging and increase lifespan. The accelerated failure time (AFT) model is seldom used to analyze survivorship data, but offers a potentially useful statistical approach that is based upon the survival curve rather than the hazard function. In this study, AFT models were used to analyze data from 16 survivorship experiments that evaluated the effects of one or more genetic manipulations on mouse lifespan. Most genetic manipulations were found to have a multiplicative effect on survivorship that is independent of age and well-characterized by the AFT model "deceleration factor". AFT model deceleration factors also provided a more intuitive measure of treatment effect than the hazard ratio, and were robust to departures from modeling assumptions. Age-dependent treatment effects, when present, were investigated using quantile regression modeling. These results provide an informative and quantitative summary of survivorship data associated with currently known long-lived mouse models. In addition, from the standpoint of aging research, these statistical approaches have appealing properties and provide valuable tools for the analysis of survivorship data.

  17. A Circulating microRNA Signature Predicts Age-Based Development of Lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Beheshti, Afshin; Vanderburg, Charles; McDonald, J. Tyson; Ramkumar, Charusheila; Kadungure, Tatenda; Zhang, Hong; Gartenhaus, Ronald B.; Evens, Andrew M.

    2017-01-01

    Extensive epidemiological data have demonstrated an exponential rise in the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) that is associated with increasing age. The molecular etiology of this remains largely unknown, which impacts the effectiveness of treatment for patients. We proposed that age-dependent circulating microRNA (miRNA) signatures in the host influence diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) development. Our objective was to examine tumor development in an age-based DLBCL system using an inventive systems biology approach. We harnessed a novel murine model of spontaneous DLBCL initiation (Smurf2-deficient) at two age groups: 3 and 15 months old. All Smurf2-deficient mice develop visible DLBCL tumor starting at 15 months of age. Total miRNA was isolated from serum, bone marrow and spleen and were collected for all age groups for Smurf2-deficient mice and age-matched wild-type C57BL/6 mice. Using systems biology techniques, we identified a list of 10 circulating miRNAs being regulated in both the spleen and bone marrow that were present in DLBCL forming mice starting at 3 months of age that were not present in the control mice. Furthermore, this miRNA signature was found to occur circulating in the blood and it strongly impacted JUN and MYC oncogenic signaling. In addition, quantification of the miRNA signature was performed via Droplet Digital PCR technology. It was discovered that a key miRNA signature circulates throughout a host prior to the formation of a tumor starting at 3 months old, which becomes further modulated by age and yielded calculation of a ‘carcinogenic risk score’. This novel age-based circulating miRNA signature may potentially be leveraged as a DLBCL risk profile at a young age to predict future lymphoma development or disease progression as well as for potential innovative miRNA-based targeted therapeutic strategies in lymphoma. PMID:28107482

  18. Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.

    2012-12-01

    This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;

  19. Mapping of Planetary Surface Age Based on Crater Statistics Obtained by AN Automatic Detection Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salih, A. L.; Mühlbauer, M.; Grumpe, A.; Pasckert, J. H.; Wöhler, C.; Hiesinger, H.

    2016-06-01

    The analysis of the impact crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) is a well-established approach to the determination of the age of planetary surfaces. Classically, estimation of the CSFD is achieved by manual crater counting and size determination in spacecraft images, which, however, becomes very time-consuming for large surface areas and/or high image resolution. With increasing availability of high-resolution (nearly) global image mosaics of planetary surfaces, a variety of automated methods for the detection of craters based on image data and/or topographic data have been developed. In this contribution a template-based crater detection algorithm is used which analyses image data acquired under known illumination conditions. Its results are used to establish the CSFD for the examined area, which is then used to estimate the absolute model age of the surface. The detection threshold of the automatic crater detection algorithm is calibrated based on a region with available manually determined CSFD such that the age inferred from the manual crater counts corresponds to the age inferred from the automatic crater detection results. With this detection threshold, the automatic crater detection algorithm can be applied to a much larger surface region around the calibration area. The proposed age estimation method is demonstrated for a Kaguya Terrain Camera image mosaic of 7.4 m per pixel resolution of the floor region of the lunar crater Tsiolkovsky, which consists of dark and flat mare basalt and has an area of nearly 10,000 km2. The region used for calibration, for which manual crater counts are available, has an area of 100 km2. In order to obtain a spatially resolved age map, CSFDs and surface ages are computed for overlapping quadratic regions of about 4.4 x 4.4 km2 size offset by a step width of 74 m. Our constructed surface age map of the floor of Tsiolkovsky shows age values of typically 3.2-3.3 Ga, while for small regions lower (down to 2.9 Ga) and higher

  20. Spatially adapted augmentation of age-specific atlas-based segmentation using patch-based priors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Mengyuan; Seshamani, Sharmishtaa; Harrylock, Lisa; Kitsch, Averi; Miller, Steven; Chau, Van; Poskitt, Kenneth; Rousseau, Francois; Studholme, Colin

    2014-03-01

    One of the most common approaches to MRI brain tissue segmentation is to employ an atlas prior to initialize an Expectation- Maximization (EM) image labeling scheme using a statistical model of MRI intensities. This prior is commonly derived from a set of manually segmented training data from the population of interest. However, in cases where subject anatomy varies significantly from the prior anatomical average model (for example in the case where extreme developmental abnormalities or brain injuries occur), the prior tissue map does not provide adequate information about the observed MRI intensities to ensure the EM algorithm converges to an anatomically accurate labeling of the MRI. In this paper, we present a novel approach for automatic segmentation of such cases. This approach augments the atlas-based EM segmentation by exploring methods to build a hybrid tissue segmentation scheme that seeks to learn where an atlas prior fails (due to inadequate representation of anatomical variation in the statistical atlas) and utilize an alternative prior derived from a patch driven search of the atlas data. We describe a framework for incorporating this patch-based augmentation of EM (PBAEM) into a 4D age-specific atlas-based segmentation of developing brain anatomy. The proposed approach was evaluated on a set of MRI brain scans of premature neonates with ages ranging from 27.29 to 46.43 gestational weeks (GWs). Results indicated superior performance compared to the conventional atlas-based segmentation method, providing improved segmentation accuracy for gray matter, white matter, ventricles and sulcal CSF regions.

  1. Zebrafish (Danio rerio) as a model for the study of aging and exercise: physical ability and trainability decrease with age.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Matthew J H; Zerulla, Tanja C; Tierney, Keith B

    2014-02-01

    A rapidly aging global population has motivated the development and use of models for human aging. Studies on aging have shown parallels between zebrafish and humans at the internal organization level; however, few parallels have been studied at the whole-organism level. Furthermore, the effectiveness of exercise as a method to mitigate the effects of aging has not been studied in zebrafish. We investigated the effects of aging and intermittent exercise on swimming performance, kinematics and behavior. Young, middle-aged and old zebrafish (20-29, 36-48 and 60-71% of average lifespan, respectively) were exercised to exhaustion in endurance and sprint swimming tests once a week for four weeks. Both endurance and sprint performance decreased with increased age. Swimming performance improved with exercise training in young and middle-aged zebrafish, but not in old zebrafish. Tail-beat amplitude, which is akin to stride length in humans, increased for all age groups with training. Zebrafish turning frequency, which is an indicator of routine activity, decreased with age but showed no change with exercise. In sum, our results show that zebrafish exhibit a decline in whole-organism performance and trainability with age. These findings closely resemble the senescence-related declines in physical ability experienced by humans and mammalian aging models and therefore support the use of zebrafish as a model for human exercise and aging.

  2. Cosmogenic Ne-21 Production Rates in H-Chondrites Based on Cl-36 - Ar-36 Ages

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leya, I.; Graf, Th.; Nishiizumi, K.; Guenther, D.; Wieler, R.

    2000-01-01

    We measured Ne-21 production rates in 14 H-chondrites in good agreement with model calculations. The production rates are based on Ne-21 concentrations measured on bulk samples or the non-magnetic fraction and Cl-36 - Ar-36 ages determined from the metal phase.

  3. Estimating Black Carbon Aging Time-Scales with a Particle-Resolved Aerosol Model

    SciTech Connect

    Riemer, Nicole; West, Matt; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Easter, Richard C.

    2010-01-13

    Understanding the aging process of aerosol particles is important for assessing their chemical reactivity, cloud condensation nuclei activity, radiative properties and health impacts. In this study we investigate the aging of black carbon containing particles in an idealized urban plume using a new approach, the particleresolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. We present a method to estimate aging time-scales using an aging criterion based on cloud condensation nuclei activation. The results show a separation into a daytime regime where condensation dominates and a nighttime regime where coagulation dominates. For the chosen urban plume scenario, depending on the supersaturation threshold, the values for the aging timescales vary between 0.06 hours and 10 hours during the day, and between 6 hours and 20 hours during the night.

  4. Attitudes about Aging and Gender among Young, Middle Age, and Older College-Based Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laditka, Sarah B.; Fischer, Mary; Laditka, James N.; Segal, David R.

    2004-01-01

    Using an updated version of the Aging Semantic Differential, 534 younger, middle age, and older participants from a college community rated female and male targets categorized as ages 21-34 and 75-85. Participants also provided views about their own aging. Repeated measures of analysis of variance examined attitudinal differences by age and gender…

  5. Lithium-ion Open Circuit Voltage (OCV) curve modelling and its ageing adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavigne, L.; Sabatier, J.; Francisco, J. Mbala; Guillemard, F.; Noury, A.

    2016-08-01

    This paper is a contribution to lithium-ion batteries modelling taking into account aging effects. It first analyses the impact of aging on electrode stoichiometry and then on lithium-ion cell Open Circuit Voltage (OCV) curve. Through some hypotheses and an appropriate definition of the cell state of charge, it shows that each electrode equilibrium potential, but also the whole cell equilibrium potential can be modelled by a polynomial that requires only one adjustment parameter during aging. An adjustment algorithm, based on the idea that for two fixed OCVs, the state of charge between these two equilibrium states is unique for a given aging level, is then proposed. Its efficiency is evaluated on a battery pack constituted of four cells.

  6. AgedCare+GP: description and evaluation of an in-house model of general practice in a residential aged-care facility.

    PubMed

    Pain, Tilley; Stainkey, Lesley; Chapman, Sue

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a medical model to provide in-house GP services to residents of aged-care facilities. Access to GP services for aged-care residents is decreasing, partially due to the changing demographic of the Australian GP workforce. The model we have developed is an in-house GP (AgedCare+GP) trialled in a publicly funded residential aged-care facility (RACF). The service model was based on the GP cooperative used in our after-hours general practice (AfterHours+GP). Briefly, the service model involves rostering a core group of GPs to provide weekly sessional clinics at the RACF. Financial contributions from appropriate Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) items for aged-care planning (including chronic conditions) provided adequate funds to operate the clinic for RACF residents. Evaluation of the service model used the number of resident transfers to the local emergency department as the primary outcome measure. There were 37 transfers of residents in the 3 months before the commencement of the AgedCare+GP and 11 transfers over a 3-month period at the end of the first year of operation; a reduction of almost 70%. This project demonstrates that AgedCare+GP is a successful model for GP service provision to RACF residents, and it also reduces the number of emergency department transfers.

  7. Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

    2014-02-01

    The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

  8. Effects of aging on strategic-based visuomotor learning.

    PubMed

    Alfonso Uresti-Cabrera, Luis; Vaca-Palomares, Israel; Diaz, Rosalinda; Beltran-Parrazal, Luis; Fernandez-Ruiz, Juan

    2015-08-27

    There are different kinds of visuomotor learnings. One of the most studied is error-based learning where the information about the sign and magnitude of the error is used to update the motor commands. However, there are other instances where subjects show visuomotor learning even if the use of error sign and magnitude information is precluded. In those instances subjects could be using strategic instead of procedural adaptation mechanisms. Here, we present the results of the effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning under a reversed error feedback condition, and its contrast with procedural visuomotor learning within the same participants. A number of measures were obtained from a task consisting of throwing clay balls to a target before, during and after wearing lateral displacing or reversing prisms. The displacing prism results show an age dependent decrease on the learning rate that corroborates previous findings. The reversing prism results also show significant adaptation impairment in the aged population. However, decreased reversing learning in the older group was the result of an increase in the number of subjects that could not adapt to the reversing prism, and not on a reduction of the learning capacity of all the individuals of the group. These results suggest a significant deleterious effect of aging on visuomotor strategic learning implementation.

  9. Using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery to build age models for alluvial fan surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Lewis, James

    2016-04-01

    Accurate exposure age models are essential for much geomorphological field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide, or luminescence techniques. These approaches continue to revolutionise geomorphology, however they cannot be deployed remotely or in situ in the field. Therefore other methods are still needed for producing preliminary age models, performing relative dating of surfaces, or selecting sampling sites for the laboratory analyses above. With the widespread availability of detailed multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely-sensed data to discriminate surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. Alluvial fans are useful landforms to date, as they are widely used to study the effects of tectonics, climate and sediment transport processes on source-to-sink sedimentation. Our target fan surfaces have all been mapped in detail in the field, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka measured using a high density of 10Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. Despite all having similar granitic compositions, the spectral properties of these surfaces vary systematically with their exposure ages. Older surfaces demonstrate a predictable shift in reflectance across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratios of different wavelengths, generate sensitive power law relationships with exposure age that depend on post-depositional alteration processes affecting these surfaces. We investigate what these processes might be in this dryland location, and evaluate the potential for using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery for developing surface age models. The ability to remotely sense relative exposure ages has useful implications for preliminary mapping, selecting

  10. Group-based differences in anti-aging bias among medical students.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Anam, Ramanakumar; Taldone, Sabrina; Karanam, Chandana; Hogue, Christie; Mintzer, Michael J

    2015-01-01

    Medical students (MS) may develop ageist attitudes early in their training that may predict their future avoidance of caring for the elderly. This study sought to determine MS' patterns of explicit and implicit anti-aging bias, intent to practice with older people and using the quad model, the role of gender, race, and motivation-based differences. One hundred and three MS completed an online survey that included explicit and implicit measures. Explicit measures revealed a moderately positive perception of older people. Female medical students and those high in internal motivation showed lower anti-aging bias, and both were more likely to intend to practice with older people. Although the implicit measure revealed more negativity toward the elderly than the explicit measures, there were no group differences. However, using the quad model the authors identified gender, race, and motivation-based differences in controlled and automatic processes involved in anti-aging bias.

  11. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-01-01

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration. PMID:25375139

  12. Synergistic effect of high charge and energy particle radiation and chronological age on biomarkers of oxidative stress and tissue degeneration: a ground-based study using the vertebrate laboratory model organism Oryzias latipes.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R; Weinberger, Paul M; Dynan, William S

    2014-01-01

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.

  13. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    DOE PAGES

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; ...

    2014-11-06

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZEmore » particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.« less

  14. Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

    SciTech Connect

    Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

    2014-11-06

    High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.

  15. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How to obtain an age-based withdrawal... an age-based withdrawal. To request an age-based withdrawal, a participant must submit to the TSP record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site...

  16. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false How to obtain an age-based withdrawal... an age-based withdrawal. To request an age-based withdrawal, a participant must submit to the TSP record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site...

  17. Age Differences in Road Crossing Decisions Based on Gap Judgements

    PubMed Central

    Oxley, J. A.; Fildes, B. N.; Ihsen, E.; Charlton, J. L.; Day, R. H.

    1999-01-01

    Older pedestrians are over-involved in serious injury and fatal crashes compared to younger adults. This may be due, in part, to diminished perceptual, cognitive and motor skills which act to reduce the older person’s ability to sense danger and take measures to avoid hazards. Two experiments are described in this paper which examine age differences in gap selection decisions in a simulated road crossing environment. The results demonstrated age differences in the decision-making process, particularly a difficulty in estimating appropriate time-of-arrival of oncoming traffic along with an inability to allow for slower decision times and walking speeds. A two-phase model of road crossing decisions is discussed within a limited information processing approach and it is suggested that older adults experience problems in quickly and instantaneously calculating distance and velocity information in order to select safe margins in which to cross the road.

  18. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  19. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  20. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  1. Chronic depression as a model disease for cerebral aging.

    PubMed

    Bewernick, Bettina H; Schlaepfer, Thomas E

    2013-03-01

    Conceptualizations of the underlying neurobiology of major depression have changed their focus from dysfunctions of neurotransmission to dysfunctions of neurogenesis and neuroprotection. The "neurogenesis hypothesis of depression" posits that changes in the rate of neurogenesis are the underlying mechanism in the pathology and treatment of major depression. Stress, neuroinflammation, dysfunctional insulin regulation, oxidative stress, and alterations in neurotrophic factors possibly contribute to the development of depression. The influence of antidepressant therapies, namely pharmacotherapy and neuroprotectants, on cellular plasticity are summarized. A dysfunction of complex neuronal networks as a consequence of neural degeneration in neuropsychiatric diseases has led to the application of deep brain stimulation. We discuss the way depression seen in the light of the neurogenesis hypothesis can be used as a model disease for cerebral aging. A common pathological mechanism in depression and cerebral aging-a dysfunction of neuroprotection and neurogenesis-is discussed. This has implications for new treatment methods.

  2. Healthy Aging Promotion through Neuroscientific Information-Based Strategies.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, Sofia; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V

    2015-09-28

    To ensure the well-being of a rapidly growing elderly population, it is fundamental to find strategies to foster healthy brain aging. With this intention, we designed a program of scientific-based lectures aimed at dissemination by established neuroscientists about brain function, brain plasticity and how lifestyle influences the brain. We also carried out a pilot study on the impact of the lectures on attendees. The objective was to provide information to elderly people in order to encourage them to identify unhealthy and healthy daily habits, and more importantly, to promote behavioral changes towards healthy brain aging. Here we report on our experience. In order to determine the impact of the lectures in the daily routine of the attendees, we asked them to fill out questionnaires. Preliminary results indicate that neuroscientific information-based strategies can be a useful method to have a positive impact on the lives of elderly, increase their awareness on how to improve brain function and promote positive lifestyle modifications. Furthermore, based on self-reported data, we also found that through this strategy it is possible to promote behavioral changes related to nutrition, sleep, and realization of physical and cognitively stimulating activities. Finally, based on the results obtained, the importance of promoting self-efficacy and the empowerment of the older populations is highlighted.

  3. Reliability-based lifetime maintenance of aging highway bridges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enright, Michael P.; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2000-06-01

    As the nation's infrastructure continues to age, the cost of maintaining it at an acceptable safety level continues to increase. In the United States, about one of every three bridges is rated structurally deficient and/or functionally obsolete. It will require about 80 billion to eliminate the current backlog of bridge deficiencies and maintain repair levels. Unfortunately, the financial resources allocated for these activities fall extremely short of the demand. Although several existing and emerging NDT techniques are available to gather inspection data, current maintenance planning decisions for deficient bridges are based on data from subjective condition assessments and do not consider the reliability of bridge components and systems. Recently, reliability-based optimum maintenance planning strategies have been developed. They can be used to predict inspection and repair times to achieve minimum life-cycle cost of deteriorating structural systems. In this study, a reliability-based methodology which takes into account loading randomness and history, and randomness in strength and degradation resulting from aggressive environmental factors, is used to predict the time- dependent reliability of aging highway bridges. A methodology for incorporating inspection data into reliability predictions is also presented. Finally, optimal lifetime maintenance strategies are identified, in which optimal inspection/repair times are found based on minimum expected life-cycle cost under prescribed reliability constraints. The influence of discount rate on optimum solutions is evaluated.

  4. Healthy Aging Promotion through Neuroscientific Information-Based Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Seinfeld, Sofia; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V.

    2015-01-01

    To ensure the well-being of a rapidly growing elderly population, it is fundamental to find strategies to foster healthy brain aging. With this intention, we designed a program of scientific-based lectures aimed at dissemination by established neuroscientists about brain function, brain plasticity and how lifestyle influences the brain. We also carried out a pilot study on the impact of the lectures on attendees. The objective was to provide information to elderly people in order to encourage them to identify unhealthy and healthy daily habits, and more importantly, to promote behavioral changes towards healthy brain aging. Here we report on our experience. In order to determine the impact of the lectures in the daily routine of the attendees, we asked them to fill out questionnaires. Preliminary results indicate that neuroscientific information-based strategies can be a useful method to have a positive impact on the lives of elderly, increase their awareness on how to improve brain function and promote positive lifestyle modifications. Furthermore, based on self-reported data, we also found that through this strategy it is possible to promote behavioral changes related to nutrition, sleep, and realization of physical and cognitively stimulating activities. Finally, based on the results obtained, the importance of promoting self-efficacy and the empowerment of the older populations is highlighted. PMID:26426029

  5. Mechanism of Origin of Conduction Disturbances in Aging Human Atrial Bundles: Experimental and Model Study

    PubMed Central

    Spach, Madison S.; Heidlage, J. Francis; Dolber, Paul C.; Barr, Roger C.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND Aging is associated with a significant increase in atrial tachyarrhythmias, especially atrial fibrillation. A macroscopic repolarization gradient created artificially by a stimulus at one site prior to a premature stimulus from a second site is widely considered to be part of the experimental protocol necessary for the initiation of such arrhythmias in the laboratory. How such gradients occur naturally in aging atrial tissue has remained unknown. OBJECTIVE This study was to determine if the pattern of cellular connectivity in aging human atrial bundles produces a mechanism for variable early premature responses. METHODS Extracellular and intracellular potentials were recorded following control and premature stimuli at a single site in aging human atrial bundles. We also measured cellular geometry, the distribution of connexins, and the distribution of collagenous septa. A model of the atrial bundles was constructed based on the morphological results. Action potential propagation and the sodium current were analyzed following premature stimuli in the model. RESULTS Similar extracellular potential waveform responses occurred following early premature stimuli in the aging bundles and in the model. Variable premature conduction patterns were accounted for by the single model of aging atrial structure. A major feature of the model results was that the conduction events and the magnitude of the sodium current at multiple sites were very sensitive to small changes in the location and the timing of premature stimuli. CONCLUSION In aging human atrial bundles stimulated from only a single site, premature stimuli induce variable arrhythmogenic conduction responses. The generation of these responses is greatly enhanced by remodeling of cellular connectivity during aging. The results provide insight into sodium current-structural interactions as a general mechanism of arrhythmogenic atrial responses to premature stimuli. PMID:17275753

  6. Modeling age-specific cancer incidences using logistic growth equations: implications for data collection.

    PubMed

    Shen, Xing-Rong; Feng, Rui; Chai, Jing; Cheng, Jing; Wang, De-Bin

    2014-01-01

    Large scale secular registry or surveillance systems have been accumulating vast data that allow mathematical modeling of cancer incidence and mortality rates. Most contemporary models in this regard use time series and APC (age-period-cohort) methods and focus primarily on predicting or analyzing cancer epidemiology with little attention being paid to implications for designing cancer registry, surveillance or evaluation initiatives. This research models age-specific cancer incidence rates using logistic growth equations and explores their performance under different scenarios of data completeness in the hope of deriving clues for reshaping relevant data collection. The study used China Cancer Registry Report 2012 as the data source. It employed 3-parameter logistic growth equations and modeled the age-specific incidence rates of all and the top 10 cancers presented in the registry report. The study performed 3 types of modeling, namely full age-span by fitting, multiple 5-year- segment fitting and single-segment fitting. Measurement of model performance adopted adjusted goodness of fit that combines sum of squred residuals and relative errors. Both model simulation and performance evalation utilized self-developed algorithms programed using C# languade and MS Visual Studio 2008. For models built upon full age-span data, predicted age-specific cancer incidence rates fitted very well with observed values for most (except cervical and breast) cancers with estimated goodness of fit (Rs) being over 0.96. When a given cancer is concerned, the R valuae of the logistic growth model derived using observed data from urban residents was greater than or at least equal to that of the same model built on data from rural people. For models based on multiple-5-year-segment data, the Rs remained fairly high (over 0.89) until 3-fourths of the data segments were excluded. For models using a fixed length single-segment of observed data, the older the age covered by the corresponding

  7. Dynamic analysis of a hepatitis B model with three-age-classes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Suxia; Zhou, Yicang

    2014-07-01

    Based on the fact that the likelihood of becoming chronically infected is dependent on age at primary infection Kane (1995) [2], Edmunds et al. (1993) [3], Medley et al. (2001) [4], and Ganem and Prince (2004) [6], we formulate a hepatitis B transmission model with three age classes. The reproduction number, R0 is defined and the dynamical behavior of the model is analyzed. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R0<1, and there exists at least one endemic equilibrium and that the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1. The unique endemic equilibrium and its global stability is obtained in a special case. Simulations are also conducted to compare the dynamical behavior of the model with and without age classes.

  8. The quadratic hazard model for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and the life span.

    PubMed

    Yashin, A I; Arbeev, K G; Akushevich, I; Kulminski, A; Ukraintseva, S V; Stallard, E; Land, K C

    2012-06-01

    A better understanding of processes and mechanisms linking human aging with changes in health status and survival requires methods capable of analyzing new data that take into account knowledge about these processes accumulated in the field. In this paper, we describe an approach to analyses of longitudinal data based on the use of stochastic process models of human aging, health, and longevity which allows for incorporating state of the art advances in aging research into the model structure. In particular, the model incorporates the notions of resistance to stresses, adaptive capacity, and "optimal" (normal) physiological states. To capture the effects of exposure to persistent external disturbances, the notions of allostatic adaptation and allostatic load are introduced. These notions facilitate the description and explanation of deviations of individuals' physiological indices from their normal states, which increase the chances of disease development and death. The model provides a convenient conceptual framework for comprehensive systemic analyses of aging-related changes in humans using longitudinal data and linking these changes with genotyping profiles, morbidity, and mortality risks. The model is used for developing new statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and longevity.

  9. Limiting extensibility constitutive model with distributed fibre orientations and ageing of abdominal aorta.

    PubMed

    Horný, Lukáš; Netušil, Marek; Daniel, Matěj

    2014-10-01

    The abdominal aorta is susceptible to age-related pathological changes (arteriosclerosis, atherosclerosis, aneurysm, and tortuosity). Computational biomechanics and mechanobiology provide models capable of predicting mutual interactions between a changing mechanical environment and patho-physiological processes in ageing. However, a key factor is a constitutive equation which should reflect the internal tissue architecture. Our study investigates three microstructurally-motivated invariant-based hyperelastic anisotropic models suitable for description of the passive mechanical behaviour of the human abdominal aorta at a multiaxial state of stress known from recent literature. The three adopted models have also been supplemented with a newly proposed constitutive model (limiting extensibility with fibre dispersion). All models additively decouple the mechanical response of the isotropic (elastin and smooth muscle cells represented by the neo-Hookean term) and the anisotropic (collagen) parts. Two models use exponential functions to capture large strain stiffening ascribed to the engagement of collagen fibres into the load-bearing process. The other two models are based on the concept of limiting extensibility. Perfect alignment of reinforcing fibres with two preferred directions as well as fibre dispersion are considered. Constitutive models are calibrated to the inflation-extension response adopted from the literature based on the computational model of the residually-stressed thick-walled tube. A correlation analysis of determined material parameters was performed to reveal dependence on the age. The results of the nonlinear regression suggest that limiting fibre extensibility is the concept which is suitable to be used for the constitutive description of the aorta at multiaxial stress states and is highly sensitive to ageing-induced changes in mechanical response.

  10. A New, Discontinuous 2 Phases of Aging Model: Lessons from Drosophila melanogaster

    PubMed Central

    Tricoire, Hervé; Rera, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Aging is commonly described as being a continuous process affecting progressively organisms as time passes. This process results in a progressive decrease in individuals fitness through a wide range of both organismal–decreased motor activity, fertility, resistance to stress–and molecular phenotypes–decreased protein and energy homeostasis, impairment of insulin signaling. In the past 20 years, numerous genes have been identified as playing a major role in the aging process, yet little is known about the events leading to that loss of fitness. We recently described an event characterized by a dramatic increase of intestinal permeability to a blue food dye in aging flies committed to die within a few days. Importantly, flies showing this so called ‘Smurf’ phenotype are the only ones, among a population, to show various age-related changes and exhibit a high-risk of impending death whatever their chronological age. Thus, these observations suggest that instead of being one continuous phenomenon, aging may be a discontinuous process well described by at least two distinguishable phases. In this paper we addressed this hypothesis by implementing a new 2 Phases of Aging mathematiCal model (2PAC model) to simulate longevity curves based on the simple hypothesis of two consecutive phases of lifetime presenting different properties. We first present a unique equation for each phase and discuss the biological significance of the 3 associated parameters. Then we evaluate the influence of each parameter on the shape of survival curves. Overall, this new mathematical model, based on simple biological observations, is able to reproduce many experimental longevity curves, supporting the existence of 2 phases of aging exhibiting specific properties and separated by a dramatic transition that remains to be characterized. Moreover, it indicates that Smurf survival can be approximated by one single constant parameter for a broad range of genotypes that we have tested under

  11. Age affects chunk-based, but not rule-based learning in artificial grammar acquisition.

    PubMed

    Kürten, Julia; De Vries, Meinou H; Kowal, Kristina; Zwitserlood, Pienie; Flöel, Agnes

    2012-07-01

    Explicit learning is well known to decline with age, but divergent results have been reported for implicit learning. Here, we assessed the effect of aging on implicit vs. explicit learning within the same task. Fifty-five young (mean 32 years) and 55 elderly (mean 64 years) individuals were exposed to letter strings generated by an artificial grammar. Subsequently, participants classified novel strings as grammatical or nongrammatical. Acquisition of superficial ("chunk-based") and structural ("rule-based") features of the grammar were analyzed separately. We found that overall classification accuracy was diminished in the elderly, driven by decreased performance on items that required chunk-based knowledge. Performance on items requiring rule-based knowledge was comparable between groups. Results indicate that rule-based and chunk-based learning are differentially affected by age: while rule-based learning, reflecting implicit learning, is preserved, chunk-based learning, which contains at least some explicit learning aspects, declines with age. Our findings may explain divergent results on implicit learning tasks in previous studies on aging. They may also help to better understand compensatory mechanisms during the aging process.

  12. Oxidative stress and age-related changes in T cells: is thalassemia a model of accelerated immune system aging?

    PubMed Central

    Ghatreh-Samani, Mahdi; Esmaeili, Nafiseh; Soleimani, Masoud; Asadi-Samani, Majid; Ghatreh-Samani, Keihan

    2016-01-01

    Iron overload in β-thalassemia major occurs mainly due to blood transfusion, an essential treatment for β-thalassemia major patients, which results in oxidative stress. It has been thought that oxidative stress causes elevation of immune system senescent cells. Under this condition, cells normally enhance in aging, which is referred to as premature immunosenescence. Because there is no animal model for immunosenescence, most knowledge on the immunosenescence pattern is based on induction of immunosenescence. In this review, we describe iron overload and oxidative stress in β-thalassemia major patients and how they make these patients a suitable human model for immunosenescence. We also consider oxidative stress in some kinds of chronic virus infections, which induce changes in the immune system similar to β-thalassemia major. In conclusion, a therapeutic approach used to improve the immune system in such chronic virus diseases, may change the immunosenescence state and make life conditions better for β-thalassemia major patients. PMID:27095931

  13. Cognitive aging and hearing acuity: modeling spoken language comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Wingfield, Arthur; Amichetti, Nicole M.; Lash, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    The comprehension of spoken language has been characterized by a number of “local” theories that have focused on specific aspects of the task: models of word recognition, models of selective attention, accounts of thematic role assignment at the sentence level, and so forth. The ease of language understanding (ELU) model (Rönnberg et al., 2013) stands as one of the few attempts to offer a fully encompassing framework for language understanding. In this paper we discuss interactions between perceptual, linguistic, and cognitive factors in spoken language understanding. Central to our presentation is an examination of aspects of the ELU model that apply especially to spoken language comprehension in adult aging, where speed of processing, working memory capacity, and hearing acuity are often compromised. We discuss, in relation to the ELU model, conceptions of working memory and its capacity limitations, the use of linguistic context to aid in speech recognition and the importance of inhibitory control, and language comprehension at the sentence level. Throughout this paper we offer a constructive look at the ELU model; where it is strong and where there are gaps to be filled. PMID:26124724

  14. Aging and associative recognition: A view from the DRYAD model of age-related memory deficits.

    PubMed

    Benjamin, Aaron S

    2016-02-01

    How do we best characterize the memory deficits that accompany aging? A popular hypothesis, articulated originally by Naveh-Benjamin (2000) and reviewed in the accompanying article by Smyth and Naveh-Benjamin (2016), suggests that older adults are selectively deficient in establishing associations between to-be-learned memoranda and as a result have deficits in memory for sources or contexts. An alternative proposal, called density of representations yields age-related deficits (DRYAD) and outlined in recent articles by Benjamin (2010) and colleagues (Benjamin, Diaz, Matzen, & Johnson, 2012), attributes disproportionate deficits in memory to a global, rather than a selective, deficit of memory. In an attempt to adjudicate between these competing positions, Smyth and Naveh-Benjamin (2016) discussed 2 sets of experimental data that they claim speak against the global deficit model. Here I review some general principles of how the global-deficit view is applied to experimental paradigms and demonstrate that even a simplified form of DRYAD can comfortably accommodate the critical findings cited by Smyth and Naveh-Benjamin. I also evaluate aspects of their results that may be problematic for DRYAD and describe ways in which DRYAD's account of associative recognition can be falsified. I end with a discussion of the complementary strengths and weaknesses of the 2 approaches and consider ways in which the associative deficit hypothesis and DRYAD might work more profitably together than apart.

  15. Model-based software design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iscoe, Neil; Liu, Zheng-Yang; Feng, Guohui; Yenne, Britt; Vansickle, Larry; Ballantyne, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Domain-specific knowledge is required to create specifications, generate code, and understand existing systems. Our approach to automating software design is based on instantiating an application domain model with industry-specific knowledge and then using that model to achieve the operational goals of specification elicitation and verification, reverse engineering, and code generation. Although many different specification models can be created from any particular domain model, each specification model is consistent and correct with respect to the domain model.

  16. Model-Based Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ifenthaler, Dirk; Seel, Norbert M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, there will be a particular focus on mental models and their application to inductive reasoning within the realm of instruction. A basic assumption of this study is the observation that the construction of mental models and related reasoning is a slowly developing capability of cognitive systems that emerges effectively with proper…

  17. Constraints on Pacific midplate swells from global depth-age and heat flow-age models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, Carol A.; Stein, Seth

    Oceanic midplate swells are identified by shallow seafloor depths. In turn, models of the processes giving rise to these regions rely on assessments of how their depths, surface heat flow, and flexural properties differ from those for lithosphere which is presumed not to have been affected by these processes. Such comparisons have been inhibited because reference thermal models, which are assumed to describe unperturbed lithosphere, predict deeper depths and lower heat flow than typically observed for lithosphere older than 70 Ma. As a result, both depth and heat flow anomalies can be overestimated. To address this difficulty, we have derived model GDH1 (Global Depth and Heat flow) by joint fitting of heat flow and bathymetry. GDH1, which has a hotter and thinner lithosphere than previous models, fits the depth and heat flow data significantly better, including the data from older lithosphere previously treated as anomalous. It also provides an improved fit to depth-to-basement data for ocean drilling sites, and to geoid offsets across fracture zones. The improved fit occurs for depth-age data from both the DBDB-5 digital bathymetry, and from regional medians from ship tracks, which yield comparable depth-age curves. We use GDH1 to study three classes of midplate swells: the Hawaiian and other hot spot swells, the Darwin Rise area of widespread Cretaceous volcanism, and the Superswell, considered a present analogue to the Darwin Rise. Heat flow on the Hawaiian swell, though anomalously high with respect to previous reference models, is at most slightly high relative to GDH1. The situation is similar for the Bermuda, Cape Verde, and Crozet hot spots. The absence of a significant heat flow anomaly favors a primarily dynamic, rather than thermal, origin for these swells. Similarly, the present depths and heat flow for the Darwin Rise are consistent with GDH1, although they were anomalous with respect to previous reference models. The depth and heat flow data thus

  18. Principles of models based engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Dolin, R.M.; Hefele, J.

    1996-11-01

    This report describes a Models Based Engineering (MBE) philosophy and implementation strategy that has been developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory`s Center for Advanced Engineering Technology. A major theme in this discussion is that models based engineering is an information management technology enabling the development of information driven engineering. Unlike other information management technologies, models based engineering encompasses the breadth of engineering information, from design intent through product definition to consumer application.

  19. A phylogenetically based transcriptome age index mirrors ontogenetic divergence patterns.

    PubMed

    Domazet-Lošo, Tomislav; Tautz, Diethard

    2010-12-09

    Parallels between phylogeny and ontogeny have been discussed for almost two centuries, and a number of theories have been proposed to explain such patterns. Especially elusive is the phylotypic stage, a phase during development where species within a phylum are particularly similar to each other. Although this has formerly been interpreted as a recapitulation of phylogeny, it is now thought to reflect an ontogenetic progression phase, where strong constraints on developmental regulation and gene interactions exist. Several studies have shown that genes expressed during this stage evolve at a slower rate, but it has so far not been possible to derive an unequivocal molecular signature associated with this stage. Here we use a combination of phylostratigraphy and stage-specific gene expression data to generate a cumulative index that reflects the evolutionary age of the transcriptome at given ontogenetic stages. Using zebrafish ontogeny and adult development as a model, we find that the phylotypic stage does indeed express the oldest transcriptome set and that younger sets are expressed during early and late development, thus faithfully mirroring the hourglass model of morphological divergence. Reproductively active animals show the youngest transcriptome, with major differences between males and females. Notably, ageing animals express increasingly older genes. Comparisons with similar data sets from flies and nematodes show that this pattern occurs across phyla. Our results indicate that an old transcriptome marks the phylotypic phase and that phylogenetic differences at other ontogenetic stages correlate with the expression of newly evolved genes.

  20. Modeling the durability of ZOSTAVAX® vaccine efficacy in people ≥60 years of age.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaoming; Zhang, Jane H; Betts, Robert F; Morrison, Vicki A; Xu, Ruifeng; Itzler, Robbin F; Acosta, Camilo J; Dasbach, Erik J; Pellissier, James M; Johnson, Gary R; Chan, Ivan S F

    2015-03-17

    Since 2006, the vaccine, ZOSTAVAX(®), has been licensed to prevent herpes zoster. Only limited clinical follow-up data are available to evaluate duration of protection, an important consideration when developing HZ vaccination policy recommendations. Four Poisson regression models were developed based on an integrated analysis of data from the Shingles Prevention Study and its Short Term Persistence extension to estimate the effects of years-since-vaccination and chronological-age on vaccine efficacy among people ≥60 years old. The models included number of HZ cases parsed into categories by chronological-age and time-since-vaccination as the dependent variable with different explanatory variables in each model. In all models, the interaction between vaccine-group and chronological-age was statistically significant indicating that vaccine efficacy decreases with the expected effects of advancing age but the interaction between vaccine-group and time-since-vaccination was not statistically significant indicating that much of the reduction in vaccine efficacy over time-since-vaccination can be explained by increasing age.

  1. Lattice percolation approach to 3D modeling of tissue aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorshkov, Vyacheslav; Privman, Vladimir; Libert, Sergiy

    2016-11-01

    We describe a 3D percolation-type approach to modeling of the processes of aging and certain other properties of tissues analyzed as systems consisting of interacting cells. Lattice sites are designated as regular (healthy) cells, senescent cells, or vacancies left by dead (apoptotic) cells. The system is then studied dynamically with the ongoing processes including regular cell dividing to fill vacant sites, healthy cells becoming senescent or dying, and senescent cells dying. Statistical-mechanics description can provide patterns of time dependence and snapshots of morphological system properties. The developed theoretical modeling approach is found not only to corroborate recent experimental findings that inhibition of senescence can lead to extended lifespan, but also to confirm that, unlike 2D, in 3D senescent cells can contribute to tissue's connectivity/mechanical stability. The latter effect occurs by senescent cells forming the second infinite cluster in the regime when the regular (healthy) cell's infinite cluster still exists.

  2. Age-aware solder performance models : level 2 milestone completion.

    SciTech Connect

    Neilsen, Michael K.; Vianco, Paul Thomas; Neidigk, Matthew Aaron; Holm, Elizabeth Ann

    2010-09-01

    Legislated requirements and industry standards are replacing eutectic lead-tin (Pb-Sn) solders with lead-free (Pb-free) solders in future component designs and in replacements and retrofits. Since Pb-free solders have not yet seen service for long periods, their long-term behavior is poorly characterized. Because understanding the reliability of Pb-free solders is critical to supporting the next generation of circuit board designs, it is imperative that we develop, validate and exercise a solder lifetime model that can capture the thermomechanical response of Pb-free solder joints in stockpile components. To this end, an ASC Level 2 milestone was identified for fiscal year 2010: Milestone 3605: Utilize experimentally validated constitutive model for lead-free solder to simulate aging and reliability of solder joints in stockpile components. This report documents the completion of this milestone, including evidence that the milestone completion criteria were met and a summary of the milestone Program Review.

  3. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  4. Constitutive Modeling and Testing of Polymer Matrix Composites Incorporating Physical Aging at Elevated Temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veazie, David R.

    1998-01-01

    Advanced polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are desirable for structural materials in diverse applications such as aircraft, civil infrastructure and biomedical implants because of their improved strength-to-weight and stiffness-to-weight ratios. For example, the next generation military and commercial aircraft requires applications for high strength, low weight structural components subjected to elevated temperatures. A possible disadvantage of polymer-based composites is that the physical and mechanical properties of the matrix often change significantly over time due to the exposure of elevated temperatures and environmental factors. For design, long term exposure (i.e. aging) of PMC's must be accounted for through constitutive models in order to accurately assess the effects of aging on performance, crack initiation and remaining life. One particular aspect of this aging process, physical aging, is considered in this research.

  5. Compact modeling of total ionizing dose and aging effects in MOS technologies

    DOE PAGES

    Esqueda, Ivan S.; Barnaby, Hugh J.; King, Michael Patrick

    2015-06-18

    This paper presents a physics-based compact modeling approach that incorporates the impact of total ionizing dose (TID) and stress-induced defects into simulations of metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices and integrated circuits (ICs). This approach utilizes calculations of surface potential (ψs) to capture the charge contribution from oxide trapped charge and interface traps and to describe their impact on MOS electrostatics and device operating characteristics as a function of ionizing radiation exposure and aging effects. The modeling approach is demonstrated for bulk and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) MOS device. The formulation is verified using TCAD simulations and through the comparison of model calculations and experimentalmore » I-V characteristics from irradiated devices. The presented approach is suitable for modeling TID and aging effects in advanced MOS devices and ICs.« less

  6. Compact modeling of total ionizing dose and aging effects in MOS technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Esqueda, Ivan S.; Barnaby, Hugh J.; King, Michael Patrick

    2015-06-18

    This paper presents a physics-based compact modeling approach that incorporates the impact of total ionizing dose (TID) and stress-induced defects into simulations of metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices and integrated circuits (ICs). This approach utilizes calculations of surface potential (ψs) to capture the charge contribution from oxide trapped charge and interface traps and to describe their impact on MOS electrostatics and device operating characteristics as a function of ionizing radiation exposure and aging effects. The modeling approach is demonstrated for bulk and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) MOS device. The formulation is verified using TCAD simulations and through the comparison of model calculations and experimental I-V characteristics from irradiated devices. The presented approach is suitable for modeling TID and aging effects in advanced MOS devices and ICs.

  7. A theory of the cancer age-specific incidence data based on extreme value distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soto-Ortiz, Luis; Brody, James P.

    2012-03-01

    The incidence of cancers varies with age, if normalized this is called the age-specific incidence. A mathematical model that describes this variation should provide a better understanding of how cancers develop. We suggest that the age-specific incidence should follow an extreme value distribution, based on three widely accepted assumptions: (1) a tumor develops from a single cell, (2) many potential tumor progenitor cells exist in a tissue, and (3) cancer is diagnosed when the first of these many potential tumor cells develops into a tumor. We tested this by comparing the predicted distribution to the age-specific incidence data for colon and prostate carcinomas collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results network of 17 cancer registries. We found that colon carcinoma age-specific incidence data is consistent with an extreme value distribution, while prostate carcinomas age-specific incidence data generally follows the distribution. This model indicates that both colon and prostate carcinomas only occur in a subset of the population (22% for prostate and 13.5% for colon.) Because of their very general nature, extreme value distributions might be applicable to understanding other chronic human diseases.

  8. Modeling Diverse Pathways to Age Progressive Volcanism in Subduction Zones.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kincaid, C. R.; Szwaja, S.; Sylvia, R. T.; Druken, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    One of the best, and most challenging clues to unraveling mantle circulation patterns in subduction zones comes in the form of age progressive volcanic and geochemical trends. Hard fought geological data from many subduction zones, like Tonga-Lau, the Cascades and Costa-Rica/Nicaragua, reveal striking temporal patterns used in defining mantle flow directions and rates. We summarize results from laboratory subduction models showing a range in circulation and thermal-chemical transport processes. These interaction styles are capable of producing such trends, often reflecting apparent instead of actual mantle velocities. Lab experiments use a glucose working fluid to represent Earth's upper mantle and kinematically driven plates to produce a range in slab sinking and related wedge transport patterns. Kinematic forcing assumes most of the super-adiabatic temperature gradient available to drive major downwellings is in the tabular slabs. Moreover, sinking styles for fully dynamic subduction depend on many complicating factors that are only poorly understood and which can vary widely even for repeated parameter combinations. Kinematic models have the benefit of precise, repeatable control of slab motions and wedge flow responses. Results generated with these techniques show the evolution of near-surface thermal-chemical-rheological heterogeneities leads to age progressive surface expressions in a variety of ways. One set of experiments shows that rollback and back-arc extension combine to produce distinct modes of linear, age progressive melt delivery to the surface through a) erosion of the rheological boundary layer beneath the overriding plate, and deformation and redistribution of both b) mantle residuum produced from decompression melting and c) formerly active, buoyant plumes. Additional experiments consider buoyant diapirs rising in a wedge under the influence of rollback, back-arc spreading and slab-gaps. Strongly deflected diapirs, experiencing variable rise

  9. Groundwater ages in an alluvial aquifer: Confronting lumped parameter models (3H, CFCs and SF6) and numerical transport modeling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mouloudi, R.; Gourcy, L.; Kloppmann, W.; Violette, S.

    2012-04-01

    Groundwater age dating using tritium and dissolved gases was undertaken in an alluvial aquifer to determine groundwater transit time and flow rate as key parameters for assessing diffuse nitrate pollution.The studied site of about 260 km2 is crossed by the Ain River and bordered by the Rhône River which is the natural drain for the aquifer. It is mainly recharged by precipitation but also receives water from the Dombes plain (NW and W), intensively cultivated, and from the Bugey and Jura karstic mountains (NE and E part). In this study, we investigated the relevance of the gas-tracers CFCs and SF6 as age dating tools in alluvial shallow aquifers. The exponential model was chosen to conceptualize the alluvial aquifer recharge, 3H also used. Age-dating gave a mean recharge date of 5 to 18 years. CFCs, SF6 and 3H age estimation was confronted with the results of 2D transport modelling. Lumped parameter models were used to estimate the distribution of CFC and SF6 ages. Groundwater age is a measurable quantity, provided many assumptions. One of the underlying questions is the physical meaning of "ages" obtained by the lumped parameter models. Indeed, knowledge of an apparent age does not necessarily imply knowledge of the groundwater residence time. An independent approach of groundwater age determination is based on solving the solute transport problem. Few studies seek to compare the hydrodynamic and tracers approaches. This comparison aims to increase our hydrogeological understanding of the Ain alluvial plain and to better define " groundwater age" and its meanings. The hydrodynamic modelling was performed using MARTHE code (Thiéry, 2004). It was calibrated over a period of 8 years at a 10 days' time step. Results of the transitory regime calibration are satisfactory and allowed the use of this model for solute transport of 3H, CFCs and SF6. Different approaches are possible for the comparison of tracer and hydrodynamic models. The first is to reproduce the tracer

  10. Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanafiah, Hazlenah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2013-11-01

    In recent years, the study of fertility has been getting a lot of attention among research abroad following fear of deterioration of fertility led by the rapid economy development. Hence, this study examines the feasibility of developing fertility forecasts based on age structure. Lee Carter model (1992) is applied in this study as it is an established and widely used model in analysing demographic aspects. A singular value decomposition approach is incorporated with an ARIMA model to estimate age specific fertility rates in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1958-2007. Residual plots is used to measure the goodness of fit of the model. Fertility index forecast using random walk drift is then utilised to predict the future age specific fertility. Results indicate that the proposed model provides a relatively good and reasonable data fitting. In addition, there is an apparent and continuous decline in age specific fertility curves in the next 10 years, particularly among mothers' in their early 20's and 40's. The study on the fertility is vital in order to maintain a balance between the population growth and the provision of facilities related resources.

  11. Opposite differential risks for autism and schizophrenia based on maternal age, paternal age, and parental age differences

    PubMed Central

    Byars, Sean G.; Boomsma, Jacobus J.

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives: Effects of maternal and paternal age on offspring autism and schizophrenia risks have been studied for over three decades, but inconsistent risks have often been found, precluding well-informed speculation on why these age-related risks might exist. Methodology: To help clarify this situation we analysed a massive single population sample from Denmark including the full spectrum of autistic and schizophrenic disorders (eliminating between-study confounding), used up to 30 follow-up years, controlled for over 20 potentially confounding factors and interpret the ultimate causation of the observed risk patterns using generally accepted principles of parent-offspring conflict and life-history theory. Results: We evaluated the effects of paternal age, maternal age and parental age difference on offspring mental disorders and found consistently similar risk patterns for related disorders and markedly different patterns between autistic and schizophrenic disorders. Older fathers and mothers both conferred increased risk for autistic but not schizophrenic disorders, but autism risk was reduced in younger parents and offspring of younger mothers had increased risk for many schizophrenic disorders. Risk for most disorders also increased when parents were more dissimilarly aged. Monotonically increasing autism risk is consistent with mutation accumulation as fathers’ age, but this explanation is invalid for schizophrenic disorders, which were not related to paternal age and were negatively correlated with maternal age. Conclusions and implications: We propose that the observed maternally induced risk patterns ultimately reflect a shifting ancestral life-history trade-off between current and future reproduction, mediated by an initially high but subsequently decreasing tendency to constrain foetal provisioning as women proceed from first to final pregnancy. PMID:27637201

  12. Rule-based simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nieten, Joseph L.; Seraphine, Kathleen M.

    1991-01-01

    Procedural modeling systems, rule based modeling systems, and a method for converting a procedural model to a rule based model are described. Simulation models are used to represent real time engineering systems. A real time system can be represented by a set of equations or functions connected so that they perform in the same manner as the actual system. Most modeling system languages are based on FORTRAN or some other procedural language. Therefore, they must be enhanced with a reaction capability. Rule based systems are reactive by definition. Once the engineering system has been decomposed into a set of calculations using only basic algebraic unary operations, a knowledge network of calculations and functions can be constructed. The knowledge network required by a rule based system can be generated by a knowledge acquisition tool or a source level compiler. The compiler would take an existing model source file, a syntax template, and a symbol table and generate the knowledge network. Thus, existing procedural models can be translated and executed by a rule based system. Neural models can be provide the high capacity data manipulation required by the most complex real time models.

  13. Oxidative Stress and Protein Quality Control Systems in the Aged Canine Brain as a Model for Human Neurodegenerative Disorders

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Aged dogs are considered the most suitable spontaneous animal model for studying normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases. Elderly canines naturally develop cognitive dysfunction and neuropathological hallmarks similar to those seen in humans, especially Alzheimer's disease-like pathology. Pet dogs also share similar living conditions and diets to humans. Oxidative damage accumulates in the canine brain during aging, making dogs a valid model for translational antioxidant treatment/prevention studies. Evidence suggests the presence of detective protein quality control systems, involving ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS) and Heat Shock Proteins (HSPs), in the aged canine brain. Further studies on the canine model are needed to clarify the role of age-related changes in UPS activity and HSP expression in neurodegeneration in order to design novel treatment strategies, such as HSP-based therapies, aimed at improving chaperone defences against proteotoxic stress affecting brain during aging. PMID:26078824

  14. Pro-Cognitive Properties of the Immunomodulatory Polypeptide Complex, Yolkin, from Chicken Egg Yolk and Colostrum-Derived Substances: Analyses Based on Animal Model of Age-Related Cognitive Deficits.

    PubMed

    Lemieszewska, Marta; Jakubik-Witkowska, Marta; Stańczykiewicz, Bartłomiej; Zambrowicz, Aleksandra; Zabłocka, Agnieszka; Polanowski, Antoni; Trziszka, Tadeusz; Rymaszewska, Joanna

    2016-10-01

    The study aimed to assess the effect of the polypeptide Y complex (Yolkin), isolated from chicken egg yolk, on behavioural and cognitive functions. It also aimed to compare this activity with colostrum-derived substances (Colostrinin, Coloco), which have a confirmed impact on learning and memory. In the study, the effect of Yolkin, administered to rats of different ages, who performed various tasks involving spatial and episodic memory, motor functions and exploratory behavior, was assessed. The experiment was carried out in rats which were 6 and 12 months old. Two different doses of the studied specimens based on previous comparative studies and two different routes of administration (oral and retroperitoneal) were used. A series of behavioural tests were carried out, including an open field test, a novel object recognition test and a Morris water maze. They were used to evaluate the impact of the studied specimen on improving locomotor function and exploratory behaviour, preventing their decline and assess the functioning of episodic and spatial memory in aging rats. The administration of Yolkin gave distinct effects compared to colostrum-derived substances, although confirmed its suggested pro-cognitive action. Therefore, it may be used to enhance cognitive functions and inhibit the progression of dementia in the course of neurodegenerative disorders.

  15. Age- and time-dependent prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus infection in drug users in France, 2004-2011: model-based estimation from two national cross-sectional serosurveys.

    PubMed

    Leon, L; Kasereka, S; Barin, F; Larsen, C; Weill-Barillet, L; Pascal, X; Chevaliez, S; Pillonel, J; Jauffret-Roustide, M; LE Strat, Y

    2017-04-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a public health issue worldwide. Injecting drug use remains the major mode of transmission in developed countries. Monitoring the HCV transmission dynamic over time is crucial, especially to assess the effect of harm reduction measures in drug users (DU). Our objective was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HCV infection in DU in France using data from a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted in 2004 and 2011. Age- and time-dependent HCV prevalence was estimated through logistic regression models adjusted for HIV serostatus or injecting practices. HCV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model linking prevalence and incidence. HCV prevalence decreased from 58·2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 49·7-66·8] in 2004 to 43·2% (95% CI 38·8-47·7) in 2011. HCV incidence decreased from 7·9/100 person-years (95% CI 6·4-9·4) in 2004 to 4·4/100 person-years (95% CI 3·3-5·9) in 2011. HCV prevalence and incidence were significantly associated with age, calendar time, HIV serostatus and injecting practices. In 2011, the highest estimated incidence was in active injecting DU (11·2/100 person-years). Given the forthcoming objective of generalizing access to new direct antiviral agents for HCV infection, our results contribute to decision-making and policy development regarding treatment scale-up and disease prevention in the DU population.

  16. Active Aging for Individuals with Parkinson's Disease: Definitions, Literature Review, and Models

    PubMed Central

    Lökk, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Active aging has been emerged to optimize different aspects of health opportunities during the aging process in order to enhance quality of life. Yet, most of the efforts are on normal aging and less attention has been paid for the elderly suffering from a chronic illness such as Parkinson's disease (PD). The aim of this review was to investigate how the concept of “active aging” fit for the elderly with PD and to propose a new model for them using the recent improvements in caring models and management approaches. For this purpose, biomedical databases have been assessed using relevant keywords to find out appropriate articles. Movement problems of PD affect physical activity, psychiatric symptoms lessen social communication, and cognitive impairment could worsen mental well-being in elderly with PD, all of which could lead to earlier retirement and poorer quality of life compared with healthy elderly. Based on the multisystematic nature of PD, a new “Active Aging Model for Parkinson's Disease” is proposed consisting of self-care, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary care, palliative care, patient-centered care, and personalized care. These strategies could potentially help the individuals with PD to have a better management approach for their condition towards the concept of active aging. PMID:25225618

  17. Landscape development modeling based on statistical framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohjola, Jari; Turunen, Jari; Lipping, Tarmo; Ikonen, Ari T. K.

    2014-01-01

    Future biosphere modeling has an essential role in assessing the safety of a proposed nuclear fuel repository. In Finland the basic inputs needed for future biosphere modeling are the digital elevation model and the land uplift model because the surface of the ground is still rising due to the download stress caused by the last ice age. The future site-scale land uplift is extrapolated by fitting mathematical expressions to known data from past shoreline positions. In this paper, the parameters of this fitting have been refined based on information about lake and mire basin isolation and archaeological findings. Also, an alternative eustatic model is used in parameter refinement. Both datasets involve uncertainties so Monte Carlo simulation is used to acquire several realizations of the model parameters. The two statistical models, the digital elevation model and the refined land uplift model, were used as inputs to a GIS-based toolbox where the characteristics of lake projections for the future Olkiluoto nuclear fuel repository site were estimated. The focus of the study was on surface water bodies since they are the major transport channels for radionuclides in containment failure scenarios. The results of the study show that the different land uplift modeling schemes relying on alternative eustatic models, Moho map versions and function fitting techniques yield largely similar landscape development tracks. However, the results also point out some more improbable realizations, which deviate significantly from the main development tracks.

  18. DNA methylation-based forensic age prediction using artificial neural networks and next generation sequencing.

    PubMed

    Vidaki, Athina; Ballard, David; Aliferi, Anastasia; Miller, Thomas H; Barron, Leon P; Syndercombe Court, Denise

    2017-05-01

    The ability to estimate the age of the donor from recovered biological material at a crime scene can be of substantial value in forensic investigations. Aging can be complex and is associated with various molecular modifications in cells that accumulate over a person's lifetime including epigenetic patterns. The aim of this study was to use age-specific DNA methylation patterns to generate an accurate model for the prediction of chronological age using data from whole blood. In total, 45 age-associated CpG sites were selected based on their reported age coefficients in a previous extensive study and investigated using publicly available methylation data obtained from 1156 whole blood samples (aged 2-90 years) analysed with Illumina's genome-wide methylation platforms (27K/450K). Applying stepwise regression for variable selection, 23 of these CpG sites were identified that could significantly contribute to age prediction modelling and multiple regression analysis carried out with these markers provided an accurate prediction of age (R(2)=0.92, mean absolute error (MAE)=4.6 years). However, applying machine learning, and more specifically a generalised regression neural network model, the age prediction significantly improved (R(2)=0.96) with a MAE=3.3 years for the training set and 4.4 years for a blind test set of 231 cases. The machine learning approach used 16 CpG sites, located in 16 different genomic regions, with the top 3 predictors of age belonged to the genes NHLRC1, SCGN and CSNK1D. The proposed model was further tested using independent cohorts of 53 monozygotic twins (MAE=7.1 years) and a cohort of 1011 disease state individuals (MAE=7.2 years). Furthermore, we highlighted the age markers' potential applicability in samples other than blood by predicting age with similar accuracy in 265 saliva samples (R(2)=0.96) with a MAE=3.2 years (training set) and 4.0 years (blind test). In an attempt to create a sensitive and accurate age prediction test, a next

  19. Basis for the ICRP`s age-specific biokinetic model for uranium

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.

    1994-12-01

    In an effort motivated largely by the Chernobyl nuclear accident, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is developing age-specific biokinetic models and dose coefficients for environmentally important radionuclides. This paper describes the ICRP`s age-specific biokinetic model for uranium. The model is constructed within a physiologically based framework originally developed for application to the alkaline earth elements but sufficiently general to apply to the larger class of bone-volume-seeking elements. Transfer rates for a reference adult are based mainly on: (1) measurements of uranium in blood and excreta of several human subjects who were intravenously injected with uranium; (2) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of some of those subjects; (3) postmortem measurements of uranium in tissues of occupationally and non-occupationally exposed subjects; (4) data on baboons, dogs, and smaller laboratory animals exposed to uranium for experimental purposes; and (5) consideration of the physiological processes thought to control retention and translocation of uranium in the body. Transfer rates for the adult are extended to children by application of a set of generic assumptions applied by the ICRP to calcium-like elements. These assumptions were derived mainly from observations of the age-specific biokinetics of the alkaline earth elements and lead in humans and laboratory animals but are consistent with available age-specific biokinetic data on uranium. 82 refs., 17 figs., 8 tabs.

  20. Improved age modelling and high-precision age estimates of late Quaternary tephras, for accurate palaeoclimate reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon P. E.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Pyle, D. M.

    2008-10-01

    The role of tephrochronology, as a dating and stratigraphic tool, in precise palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction, has expanded significantly in recent years. The power of tephrochronology rests on the fact that a tephra layer can stratigraphically link records at the resolution of as little as a few years, and that the most precise age for a particular tephra can be imported into any site where it is found. In order to maximise the potential of tephras for this purpose it is necessary to have the most precise and robustly tested age estimate possible available for key tephras. Given the varying number and quality of dates associated with different tephras it is important to be able to build age models to test competing tephra dates. Recent advances in Bayesian age modelling of dates in sequence have radically extended our ability to build such stratigraphic age models. As an example of the potential here we use Bayesian methods, now widely applied, to examine the dating of some key Late Quaternary tephras from Italy. These are: the Agnano Monte Spina Tephra (AMST), the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) and the Agnano Pomici Principali (APP), and all of them have multiple estimates of their true age. Further, we use the Bayesian approaches to generate a revised mixed radiocarbon/varve chronology for the important Lateglacial section of the Lago Grande Monticchio record, as a further illustration of what can be achieved by a Bayesian approach. With all three tephras we were able to produce viable model ages for the tephra, validate the proposed 40Ar/ 39Ar age ranges for these tephras, and provide relatively high precision age models. The results of the Bayesian integration of dating and stratigraphic information, suggest that the current best 95% confidence calendar age estimates for the AMST are 4690-4300 cal BP, the NYT 14320-13900 cal BP, and the APP 12380-12140 cal BP.

  1. Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model

    PubMed Central

    Mellem, Daniel; Fischer, Frank; Jaspers, Sören; Wenck, Horst; Rübhausen, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes. PMID:26771181

  2. Age and structure of a model vapour-deposited glass

    PubMed Central

    Reid, Daniel R.; Lyubimov, Ivan; Ediger, M. D.; de Pablo, Juan J.

    2016-01-01

    Glass films prepared by a process of physical vapour deposition have been shown to have thermodynamic and kinetic stability comparable to those of ordinary glasses aged for thousands of years. A central question in the study of vapour-deposited glasses, particularly in light of new knowledge regarding anisotropy in these materials, is whether the ultra-stable glassy films formed by vapour deposition are ever equivalent to those obtained by liquid cooling. Here we present a computational study of vapour deposition for a two-dimensional glass forming liquid using a methodology, which closely mimics experiment. We find that for the model considered here, structures that arise in vapour-deposited materials are statistically identical to those observed in ordinary glasses, provided the two are compared at the same inherent structure energy. We also find that newly deposited hot molecules produce cascades of hot particles that propagate far into the film, possibly influencing the relaxation of the material. PMID:27762262

  3. Ploidy, sex and crossing over in an evolutionary aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo, Matheus P.; Onody, Roberto N.

    2006-02-01

    Nowadays, many forms of reproduction coexist in nature: Asexual, sexual, apomictic and meiotic parthenogenesis, hermaphroditism and parasex. The mechanisms of their evolution and what made them successful reproductive alternatives are very challenging and debated questions. Here, using a simple evolutionary aging model, we give a possible scenario. By studying the performance of populations where individuals may have diverse characteristics-different ploidies, sex with or without crossing over, as well as the absence of sex-we find an evolution sequence that may explain why there are actually two major or leading groups: Sexual and asexual. We also investigate the dependence of these characteristics on different conditions of fertility and deleterious mutations. Finally, if the primeval organisms on Earth were, in fact, asexual individuals we conjecture that the sexual form of reproduction could have more easily been set and found its niche during a period of low-intensity mutations.

  4. The Grateful Aging Program: A Naturalistic Model of Transformation and Healing into the Second Half of Life

    PubMed Central

    Schlitz, Marilyn

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: Understanding and managing the process of aging is a central issue in modern society. This is a critical factor given the demographic shift toward an aging population and the negative stereotypes around aging that can limit people’s worldview on aging with gratitude and well-being. Methods: Building on three decades of qualitative and quantitative studies on positive worldview transformation at the California-based Institute of Noetic Sciences, this article applies an empirically derived naturalistic model of transformation to aging. The Grateful Aging Program is introduced as a set of transformative steps to promote well-being and to shift fear of aging into inspiration for living well. Results: Nine steps to Grateful Aging are identified: 1) answer the call to transformation, 2) cultivate curiosity, 3) formalize a Grateful Aging practice, 4) set intention for Grateful Aging, 5) pay attention to the gifts of aging, 6) build Grateful Aging habits, 7) find guidance, 8) move to acceptance, and 9) transform self and society. Educational programs are described for elderly patients and for the health care professionals who serve them. Conclusion: The Grateful Aging Program is designed to expand awareness of healthy, mindful, and meaningful aging; to promote individual and social well-being; and to facilitate a supportive atmosphere for personal enrichment and shared learning. PMID:28241911

  5. Constructing Regional Groundwater Models from Geophysical Data of Varying Type, Age, and Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christiansen, A. V.; Auken, E.; Marker, P. A.; Vilhelmsen, T. N.; Foged, N.; Wernberg, T.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

    2015-12-01

    Regional hydrological models are important tools in water resources management, but prediction uncertainties are often high due to non-uniqueness of the hydrostratigraphical model. This model is often based on borehole lithology only. However, a much better resolution can be obtained from large geophysical datasets covering the entire domain. Using boreholes to link between hydrostratigraphical classes and resistivity is efficient and emphasizes the need for an all-inclusive data interpretation procedure that can be integrated in groundwater model calibration. We present an automatic method for parameterization of a 3D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models. The objective is to create a direct input to regional groundwater models for sedimentary areas, where the sand/clay distribution governs the groundwater flow. The resistivity input is all-inclusive in the sense that we include data from a variety of instruments (DC and EM, ground-based and airborne), with a varying spatial density and varying ages and quality. The coupling between hydrological and geophysical parameters is managed using a translator function with spatially variable parameters, which is calibrated against observed lithological data. In other words, the translator function interprets the geophysical resistivities into a 3D clay fraction model and the 3D clay fraction model is then turned into a zonation for the hydrological model by a K-means clustering. We present the methodology by show-casing a study from Denmark were a regional groundwater model is constructed by including lithological information from 3100 boreholes over an 710 sqkm area. The geophysical models spans more than 30 years of data collection and includes approx. 225,000 DC models, and 35,000 EM models, airborne as well as groundbased. The final model was calibrated giving parameters that were comparable with existing models based on thorough and time-consuming manual

  6. Random regression model of growth during the first three months of age in Spanish Merino sheep.

    PubMed

    Molina, A; Menéndez-Buxadera, A; Valera, M; Serradilla, J M

    2007-11-01

    A total of 88,727 individual BW records of Spanish Merino lambs, obtained from 30,214 animals between 2 and 92 d of age, were analyzed using a random regression model (RRM). These animals were progeny of 546 rams and 15,586 ewes raised in 30 flocks, between 1992 and 2002, with a total of 45,941 animals in the pedigree. The contemporary groups (animals of the same flock, year, and season, with 452 levels), the lambing number (11 levels), the combination sex of lambs with type of litter (4 levels), and a fixed regression coefficient of age on BW were included as fixed effects. A total of 7 RRM were compared, and the best fit was obtained for a model of order 3 for the direct and maternal genetic effects and for the individual permanent environmental effect. For the maternal permanent environmental effect the best model had an order 2. The residual variance was assumed to be heterogeneous with 10 age classes; the covariance between both genetic effects was included. According to the results of the selected RRM, the heritability for both genetic effects (h(a)2 and h(m)2) increased with age, with estimates of 0.123 to 0.186 for h(a)2 and of 0.059 to 0.108 for h(m)2. The correlations between direct and genetic maternal effects were -0.619 to -0.387 during the first 45 d of age and decreased as age increased, until reaching values from -0.366 to -0.275 between 45 to 75 d of age. Important changes in ranking of the animals were found based on the breeding value estimation with the current method and with the random regression procedure. The use of RRM to analyze the genetic trajectory of growth in this population of Merino sheep is highly recommended.

  7. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  8. Multi-State Physics Models of Aging Passive Components in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Layton, Robert F.; Heasler, Patrick G.; Toloczko, Mychailo B.

    2011-03-13

    Multi-state Markov modeling has proved to be a promising approach to estimating the reliability of passive components - particularly metallic pipe components - in the context of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). These models consider the progressive degradation of a component through a series of observable discrete states, such as detectable flaw, leak and rupture. Service data then generally provides the basis for estimating the state transition rates. Research in materials science is producing a growing understanding of the physical phenomena that govern the aging degradation of passive pipe components. As a result, there is an emerging opportunity to incorporate these insights into PRA. This paper describes research conducted under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Pathway of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. A state transition model is described that addresses aging behavior associated with stress corrosion cracking in ASME Class 1 dissimilar metal welds – a component type relevant to LOCA analysis. The state transition rate estimates are based on physics models of weld degradation rather than service data. The resultant model is found to be non-Markov in that the transition rates are time-inhomogeneous and stochastic. Numerical solutions to the model provide insight into the effect of aging on component reliability.

  9. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site to initiate a request. A participant's ability to complete an age-based withdrawal on the Web will depend...

  10. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site to initiate a request. A participant's ability to complete an age-based withdrawal on the Web will depend...

  11. 5 CFR 1650.41 - How to obtain an age-based withdrawal.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... record keeper a properly completed paper TSP age-based withdrawal request form or use the TSP Web site to initiate a request. A participant's ability to complete an age-based withdrawal on the Web will depend...

  12. Cyclostratigraphy for Chinese red clay sequences: Implications to changing previous age models and paleoclimate interpretations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anwar, T.; Kravchinsky, V. A.; Zhang, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Chinese Loess Plateau contains red clay sequence which has continuous alternation of sedimentary cycles with recurrent paleoclimatic fluctuations. Absence of abundant fossils and inability of radiometric dating method made magnetostratigraphy a leading method to build age model for the red clay. Here magnetostratigraphic age model in red clay sequence is tested using cyclostratigraphy as orbital parameters of Earth are known. Milankovitch periodicities recorded in magnetic susceptibility and grain size in the Shilou red clay section are investigated and previously found age of 11 Ma for this section is re-evaluated. Magnetostratigraphy dating based on only visual correlation could potentially lead to erroneous age model. In this study the correlation is executed through the iteration procedure until it is supported by cyclostratigraphy; i.e. Milankovitch cycles are resolved in the best possible manner. Our new approach provides an age of 5.2 Ma for the Shilou profile. Wavelet analysis reveals that a 400 kyr eccentricity cycle is well preserved and the existence of a 100 kyr eccentricity in the red clay sequence on the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau suggests that eccentricity plays a vital role in Pliocene climate evolution. Paleomonsoon evolution is reconstructed and divided into three intervals (5.2-4.5 Ma, 4.5-3.6 Ma and 3.6-2.58 Ma). The earliest stage indicates that summer and winter monsoon cycles may rapidly alter, whereas the middle stage reflects an intensification of winter monsoon and aridification in Asia, and the youngest stage is characterized by relatively intensified summer monsoon. This study demonstrates that cyclostratigraphy can greatly assist magnetostratigraphy in dating the red clay sequences, and implies that many published age models for the red clay sequences should likely be re-assessed where possible. An evaluation of the monsoon system and climate change in eastern Asia might prominently benefit from this approach.

  13. Model based vibration monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Esat, I.; Paya, B.; Badi, M.N.M.

    1996-11-01

    The principal source of vibratory excitation of gear system is the unsteady component of the relative angular motion of pair of meshing spur gears. This vibratory excitation is described by the transmission error. The transmission error present itself as a varying force at the contact point of the meshing gear teeth. The varying force is also influenced by the varying tooth stiffness due to change of orientation of teeth relative to each other, during the contact phase of each pair. Such a varying force produces both lateral and torsional excitation to the gear system. This paper presents analytical formulation of a simple two meshing spur gear system as a three mass system (18 DOF). The mathematical model also incorporates the analytical formulation of the tooth stiffness. The analytical results are compared with the experimental results. At this stage of analysis the procedure developed for handling the nonlinear influences of the tooth geometry is not fully implemented and the tooth stiffness taken as a constant value representing the average tooth stiffness. The comparison between the analytical and experimental results are encouraging as three main frequency obtained from FFT of the experimental results correlates very closely with the analytical results.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of the age-structured malaria transmission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addawe, Joel M.; Lope, Jose Ernie C.

    2012-09-01

    We propose an age-structured malaria transmission model and perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission. We subdivide the human population into two: preschool humans (below 5 years) and the rest of the human population (above 5 years). We then consider two sets of baseline parameters, one for areas of high transmission and the other for areas of low transmission. We compute the sensitivity indices of the reproductive number and the endemic equilibrium point with respect to the two sets of baseline parameters. Our simulations reveal that in areas of either high or low transmission, the reproductive number is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito on the rest of the human population. For areas of low transmission, we find that the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito. For the rest of the human population it is most sensitive to the rate of acquiring temporary immunity. In areas of high transmission, the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans and the rest of the human population are both most sensitive to the birth rate of humans. This suggests that strategies that target the mosquito biting rate on pre-school humans and those that shortens the time in acquiring immunity can be successful in preventing the spread of malaria.

  15. A Computational Model of Inferior Colliculus Responses to Amplitude Modulated Sounds in Young and Aged Rats

    PubMed Central

    Rabang, Cal F.; Parthasarathy, Aravindakshan; Venkataraman, Yamini; Fisher, Zachery L.; Gardner, Stephanie M.; Bartlett, Edward L.

    2012-01-01

    The inferior colliculus (IC) receives ascending excitatory and inhibitory inputs from multiple sources, but how these auditory inputs converge to generate IC spike patterns is poorly understood. Simulating patterns of in vivo spike train data from cellular and synaptic models creates a powerful framework to identify factors that contribute to changes in IC responses, such as those resulting in age-related loss of temporal processing. A conductance-based single neuron IC model was constructed, and its responses were compared to those observed during in vivo IC recordings in rats. IC spike patterns were evoked using amplitude-modulated tone or noise carriers at 20–40 dB above threshold and were classified as low-pass, band-pass, band-reject, all-pass, or complex based on their rate modulation transfer function tuning shape. Their temporal modulation transfer functions were also measured. These spike patterns provided experimental measures of rate, vector strength, and firing pattern for comparison with model outputs. Patterns of excitatory and inhibitory synaptic convergence to IC neurons were based on anatomical studies and generalized input tuning for modulation frequency. Responses of modeled ascending inputs were derived from experimental data from previous studies. Adapting and sustained IC intrinsic models were created, with adaptation created via calcium-activated potassium currents. Short-term synaptic plasticity was incorporated into the model in the form of synaptic depression, which was shown to have a substantial effect on the magnitude and time course of the IC response. The most commonly observed IC response sub-types were recreated and enabled dissociation of inherited response properties from those that were generated in IC. Furthermore, the model was used to make predictions about the consequences of reduction in inhibition for age-related loss of temporal processing due to a reduction in GABA seen anatomically with age. PMID:23129994

  16. Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease

    PubMed Central

    Potter, Paul K.; Bowl, Michael R.; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E.; Simon, Michelle M.; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V.; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E.; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H.; Foster, Russell G.; Jackson, Ian J.; Peirson, Stuart N.; Thakker, Rajesh V.; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M.; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D. M.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss. PMID:27534441

  17. Modeling Guru: Knowledge Base for NASA Modelers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seablom, M. S.; Wojcik, G. S.; van Aartsen, B. H.

    2009-05-01

    Modeling Guru is an on-line knowledge-sharing resource for anyone involved with or interested in NASA's scientific models or High End Computing (HEC) systems. Developed and maintained by the NASA's Software Integration and Visualization Office (SIVO) and the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS), Modeling Guru's combined forums and knowledge base for research and collaboration is becoming a repository for the accumulated expertise of NASA's scientific modeling and HEC communities. All NASA modelers and associates are encouraged to participate and provide knowledge about the models and systems so that other users may benefit from their experience. Modeling Guru is divided into a hierarchy of communities, each with its own set forums and knowledge base documents. Current modeling communities include those for space science, land and atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, and oceanography. In addition, there are communities focused on NCCS systems, HEC tools and libraries, and programming and scripting languages. Anyone may view most of the content on Modeling Guru (available at http://modelingguru.nasa.gov/), but you must log in to post messages and subscribe to community postings. The site offers a full range of "Web 2.0" features, including discussion forums, "wiki" document generation, document uploading, RSS feeds, search tools, blogs, email notification, and "breadcrumb" links. A discussion (a.k.a. forum "thread") is used to post comments, solicit feedback, or ask questions. If marked as a question, SIVO will monitor the thread, and normally respond within a day. Discussions can include embedded images, tables, and formatting through the use of the Rich Text Editor. Also, the user can add "Tags" to their thread to facilitate later searches. The "knowledge base" is comprised of documents that are used to capture and share expertise with others. The default "wiki" document lets users edit within the browser so others can easily collaborate on the

  18. Model-Based Safety Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joshi, Anjali; Heimdahl, Mats P. E.; Miller, Steven P.; Whalen, Mike W.

    2006-01-01

    System safety analysis techniques are well established and are used extensively during the design of safety-critical systems. Despite this, most of the techniques are highly subjective and dependent on the skill of the practitioner. Since these analyses are usually based on an informal system model, it is unlikely that they will be complete, consistent, and error free. In fact, the lack of precise models of the system architecture and its failure modes often forces the safety analysts to devote much of their effort to gathering architectural details about the system behavior from several sources and embedding this information in the safety artifacts such as the fault trees. This report describes Model-Based Safety Analysis, an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. By extending the system model with a fault model as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support can be provided for much of the safety analysis. We believe that by using a common model for both system and safety engineering and automating parts of the safety analysis, we can both reduce the cost and improve the quality of the safety analysis. Here we present our vision of model-based safety analysis and discuss the advantages and challenges in making this approach practical.

  19. A prognosis method using age-dependent hidden semi-Markov model for equipment health prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Ying; Dong, Ming

    2011-01-01

    Health monitoring and prognostics of equipment is a basic requirement for condition-based maintenance (CBM) in many application domains. This paper presents an age-dependent hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) based prognosis method to predict equipment health. By using hazard function (h.f.), CBM is based on a failure rate which is a function of both the equipment age and the equipment conditions. The state values of the equipment condition considered in CBM, however, are limited to those stochastically increasing over time and those having non-decreasing effect on the hazard rate. The previous HSMM based prognosis algorithm assumed that the transition probabilities are only state-dependent, which means that the probability of making transition to a less healthy state does not increase with the age. In the proposed method, in order to characterize the deterioration of equipment, three types of aging factors that discount the probabilities of staying at current state while increasing the probabilities of transitions to less healthy states are integrated into the HSMM. With an iteration algorithm, the original transition matrix obtained from the HSMM can be renewed with aging factors. To predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the equipment, hazard rate is introduced to combine with the health-state transition matrix. With the classification information obtained from the HSMM, which provides the current health state of the equipment, the new RUL computation algorithm could be applied for the equipment prognostics. The performances of the HSMMs with aging factors are compared by using historical data colleted from hydraulic pumps through a case study.

  20. Aging Through Hierarchical Coalescence in the East Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faggionato, A.; Martinelli, F.; Roberto, C.; Toninelli, C.

    2012-01-01

    We rigorously analyze the low temperature non-equilibrium dynamics of the East model, a special example of a one dimensional oriented kinetically constrained particle model, when the initial distribution is different from the reversible one and for times much smaller than the global relaxation time. This setting has been intensively studied in the physics literature to analyze the slow dynamics which follows a sudden quench from the liquid to the glass phase. In the limit of zero temperature (i.e. a vanishing density of vacancies) and for initial distributions such that the vacancies form a renewal process, we prove that the density of vacancies, the persistence function and the two-time autocorrelation function behave as staircase functions with several plateaux. Furthermore the two-time autocorrelation function displays an aging behavior. We also provide a sharp description of the statistics of the domain length as a function of time, a domain being the interval between two consecutive vacancies. When the initial renewal process has finite mean, our results confirm (and generalize) previous findings of the physicists for the restricted case of a product Bernoulli measure. However we show that a different behavior appears when the initial domain distribution is in the attraction domain of a α-stable law. All the above results actually follow from a more general result which says that the low temperature dynamics of the East model is very well described by that of a certain hierarchical coalescence process, a probabilistic object which can be viewed as a hierarchical sequence of suitably linked coalescence processes and whose asymptotic behavior has been recently studied in Faggionato et al. (Universality in one dimensional hierarchical 1059 coalescence processes. Preprint, 2011).

  1. Adult age differences in interference from a prospective-memory task: a diffusion model analysis.

    PubMed

    Horn, Sebastian S; Bayen, Ute J; Smith, Rebekah E

    2013-12-01

    People often slow down their ongoing activities when they must remember an intended action, known as the cost or interference effect of prospective memory (PM). Only a few studies have examined adult age differences in PM interference, and the specific reasons underlying such differences are not well understood. The authors used a model-based approach to reveal processes underlying PM interference and age differences in these processes. Older and younger adults first performed a block of an ongoing lexical decision task alone. An embedded event-based PM task was added in a second block. Simultaneously accounting for the changes in response time distributions and error rates induced by the PM task, Ratcliff's (Psychological Review 85:59-108, 1978) diffusion model was used to decompose the nonlinear combination of speed and accuracy into psychologically meaningful components. Remembering an intention not only reduced processing efficiency in both age groups, but also prolonged peripheral nondecision times and induced response cautiousness. Overall, the findings suggest that there are multiple, but qualitatively similar factors underlying PM task interference in both age groups.

  2. Modeling shortwave solar radiation using the JGrass-NewAge system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, G.; Rigon, R.; Chávez, J. L.; David, O.

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents two new modeling components based on the object modeling system v3 (OMS3) for the calculation of the shortwave incident radiation (Rsw↓) on complex topography settings, and the implementation of several ancillary tools. The first component, NewAGE-SwRB, accounts for elevation slope, aspect, shadow of the sites, and uses suitable parameterization for obtaining the cloudless irradiance. A second component, NewAGE-DEC-MOD's is implemented to estimate the irradiance reduction due to the presence of clouds according to three parameterizations. To obtain a working modeling composition that is comparable with ground data at measurement stations the two components are connected to a kriging component. With the help of an additional component, NewAGE-V (verification package), the performance of modeled (Rsw↓) is quantitatively evaluated. The two components (and the various parameterizations they contain) are tested using the data from three basins, and some simple verification tests were carried out to assess the goodness of the methods used. Moreover, a raster mode test is performed in order to show the capability of the system in providing solar radiation raster maps. The components are part of a larger system, JGrass-NewAGE, their input and outputs are geometrical objects immediately displayed in a geographical information system (GIS). They can be used seamlessly with the various modeling solutions available in JGrass-NewAGE for the estimation of long wave radiation, evapotranspiration, and snow melting, as well as standalone components to just estimate shortwave radiation for various uses. The modularity of the approach leads to more accurate physical-statistical studies aimed to assess in depth the components' performances and extends their results spatially, without the necessity of recoding any part of the component.

  3. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a…

  4. Rule-based and information-integration category learning in normal aging.

    PubMed

    Maddox, W Todd; Pacheco, Jennifer; Reeves, Maia; Zhu, Bo; Schnyer, David M

    2010-08-01

    The basal ganglia and prefrontal cortex play critical roles in category learning. Both regions evidence age-related structural and functional declines. The current study examined rule-based and information-integration category learning in a group of older and younger adults. Rule-based learning is thought to involve explicit, frontally mediated processes, whereas information-integration is thought to involve implicit, striatally mediated processes. As a group, older adults showed rule-based and information-integration deficits. A series of models were applied that provided insights onto the type of strategy used to solve the task. Interestingly, when the analyses focused only on participants who used the task appropriate strategy in the final block of trials, the age-related rule-based deficit disappeared whereas the information-integration deficit remained. For this group of individuals, the final block information-integration deficit was due to less consistent application of the task appropriate strategy by older adults, and over the course of learning these older adults shifted from an explicit hypothesis-testing strategy to the task appropriate strategy later in learning. In addition, the use of the task appropriate strategy was associated with less interference and better inhibitory control for rule-based and information-information learning, whereas use of the task appropriate strategy was associated with greater working memory and better new verbal learning only for the rule-based task. These results suggest that normal aging impacts both forms of category learning and that there are some important similarities and differences in the explanatory locus of these deficits. The data also support a two-component model of information-integration category learning that includes a striatal component that mediated procedural-based learning, and a prefrontal cortical component that mediates the transition from hypothesis-testing to procedural-based strategies

  5. Modelling the p53/p66Shc Aging Pathway in the Shortest Living Vertebrate Nothobranchius Furzeri

    PubMed Central

    Priami, Chiara; De Michele, Giulia; Cotelli, Franco; Cellerino, Alessandro; Giorgio, Marco; Pelicci, Pier Giuseppe; Migliaccio, Enrica

    2015-01-01

    Oxidative stress induced by reactive oxygen species (ROS) increases during lifespan and is involved in aging processes. The p66Shc adaptor protein is a master regulator of oxidative stress response in mammals. Ablation of p66Shc enhances oxidative stress resistance both in vitro and in vivo. Most importantly, it has been demonstrated that its deletion retards aging in mice. Recently, new insights in the molecular mechanisms involving p66Shc and the p53 tumor suppressor genes were given: a specific p66Shc/p53 transcriptional regulation pathway was uncovered as determinant in oxidative stress response and, likely, in aging. p53, in a p66Shc-dependent manner, negatively downregulates the expression of 200 genes which are involved in the G2/M transition of mitotic cell cycle and are downregulated during physiological aging. p66Shc modulates the response of p53 by activating a p53 isoform (p44/p53, also named Delta40p53). Based on these latest results, several developments are expected in the future, as the generation of animal models to study aging and the evaluation of the use of the p53/p66Shc target genes as biomarkers in aging related diseases. The aim of this review is to investigate the conservation of the p66Shc and p53 role in oxidative stress between fish and mammals. We propose to approach this study trough a new model organism, the annual fish Nothobranchius furzeri, that has been demonstrated to develop typical signs of aging, like in mammals, including senescence, neurodegeneration, metabolic disorders and cancer. PMID:25821638

  6. A two-component Bayesian mixture model to identify implausible gestational age

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadian-Khoshnoud, Maryam; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Faradmal, Javad; Yavangi, Mahnaz

    2016-01-01

    Background: Birth weight and gestational age are two important variables in obstetric research. The primary measure of gestational age is based on a mother’s recall of her last menstrual period. This recall may cause random or systematic errors. Therefore, the objective of this study is to utilize Bayesian mixture model in order to identify implausible gestational age. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, medical documents of 502 preterm infants born and hospitalized in Hamadan Fatemieh Hospital from 2009 to 2013 were gathered. Preterm infants were classified to less than 28 weeks and 28 to 31 weeks. A two-component Bayesian mixture model was utilized to identify implausible gestational age; the first component shows the probability of correct and the second one shows the probability of incorrect classification of gestational ages. The data were analyzed through OpenBUGS 3.2.2 and 'coda' package of R 3.1.1. Results: The mean (SD) of the second component of less than 28 weeks and 28 to 31 weeks were 1179 (0.0123) and 1620 (0.0074), respectively. These values were larger than the mean of the first component for both groups which were 815.9 (0.0123) and 1061 (0.0074), respectively. Conclusion: Errors occurred in recording the gestational ages of these two groups of preterm infants included recording the gestational age less than the actual value at birth. Therefore, developing scientific methods to correct these errors is essential to providing desirable health services and adjusting accurate health indicators. PMID:28210605

  7. A reverse genetics cell-based evaluation of genes linked to healthy human tissue age

    PubMed Central

    Crossland, Hannah; Atherton, Philip J.; Strömberg, Anna; Gustafsson, Thomas; Timmons, James A.

    2017-01-01

    We recently developed a binary (i.e., young vs. old) classifier using human muscle RNA profiles that accurately distinguished the age of multiple tissue types. Pathway analysis did not reveal regulators of these 150 genes, so we used reverse genetics and pharmacologic methods to explore regulation of gene expression. Using small interfering RNA, well-studied age-related factors (i.e., rapamycin, resveratrol, TNF-α, and staurosporine), quantitative real-time PCR and clustering analysis, we studied gene–gene interactions in human skeletal muscle and renal epithelial cells. Individual knockdown of 10 different age genes yielded a consistent pattern of gene expression in muscle and renal cells, similar to in vivo. Potential epigenetic interactions included HIST1H3E knockdown, leading to decreased PHF19 and PCDH9, and increased ICAM5 in muscle and renal cells, while ICAM5 knockdown reduced HIST1H3E expression. Resveratrol, staurosporine, and TNF-α significantly regulated the in vivo aging genes, while only rapamycin perturbed the healthy-age gene expression signature in a manner consistent with in vivo. In vitro coordination of gene expression for this in vivo tissue age signature indicates a degree of direct coordination, and the observed link with mTOR activity suggests a direct link between a robust biomarker of healthy neuromuscular age and a major axis of life span in model systems.—Crossland, H., Atherton, P. J., Strömberg, A., Gustafsson, T., Timmons, J. A. A reverse genetics cell-based evaluation of genes linked to healthy human tissue age. PMID:27698205

  8. [Skin aging and evidence-based topical strategies].

    PubMed

    Bayerl, C

    2016-02-01

    Anti-aging in dermatology primarily focuses on the prevention of skin aging with UV protection (clothing and sunsceens), free radical scavengers (synthetic or botanic), and cell-protecting agents such as vitamin B3. For the correction of signs of early skin aging, retinoic acid derivatives in dermatological prescriptions are the best studied substances. Topical hormonal prescriptions are also an option if UV damage has not been the leading culprit for aging. Chemical peeling leads to a marked increase in collagen formation, the deaper the better. Ingredients in cream preparations can reduce superficial skin folds (polyphenols, amino acid peptides). Modulators of regular pigmentation are important for anti-aging preparations. Growth factors (plant extracts, recombinant growth factors) are not thoroughly studied regarding the cost-benefit and risk ratio. Complex precedures such as photodynamic therapy have an impact on the appearance of aged skin.

  9. Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

    2013-01-01

    Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

  10. Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V. A.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

    2015-04-01

    Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a drawing-based model of the solar system. The results show that children in the target age group are capable of creating a drawing-based model of the solar system and can use it to show the situations in which eclipses occur. Structural equation modeling predicting post-test knowledge scores based on learners' pre-test knowledge scores, the quality of their drawings and motivational aspects yielded some evidence that such drawing contributes to learning. Consequences for using modeling with young children are considered.

  11. Modeling of aging in plutonium by molecular dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pochet, P.

    2003-04-01

    The origin of aging in plutonium lies in the extra formation of defects due to self-decay of 239Pu. The modeling of the formation of these defects is achieved by molecular dynamics (MD). In this work a simple EAM potential has been used to study defects formation in fcc plutonium and a 2 keV cascade is analyzed. A large pressure wave is generated around the cascade core. In the used MD code the pressure wave is not absorbed at the box boundaries and due to the periodic boundary conditions, the use of a very large box is crucial in order to avoid interaction of the cascade with itself. More than 800 000 atoms are needed to deal with this small 2 keV cascade without any artifacts. This effect comes from the very low bulk modulus of fcc Pu. The relative long time to achieve the annealing is also connected to the bulk modulus. These results are discussed in terms of large pressure wave: alloying effects are predicted using that viewpoint.

  12. Estimating Modifying Effect of Age on Genetic and Environmental Variance Components in Twin Models

    PubMed Central

    He, Liang; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko; Pitkäniemi, Janne

    2016-01-01

    Twin studies have been adopted for decades to disentangle the relative genetic and environmental contributions for a wide range of traits. However, heritability estimation based on the classical twin models does not take into account dynamic behavior of the variance components over age. Varying variance of the genetic component over age can imply the existence of gene–environment (G × E) interactions that general genome-wide association studies (GWAS) fail to capture, which may lead to the inconsistency of heritability estimates between twin design and GWAS. Existing parametric G × E interaction models for twin studies are limited by assuming a linear or quadratic form of the variance curves with respect to a moderator that can, however, be overly restricted in reality. Here we propose spline-based approaches to explore the variance curves of the genetic and environmental components. We choose the additive genetic, common, and unique environmental variance components (ACE) model as the starting point. We treat the component variances as variance functions with respect to age modeled by B-splines or P-splines. We develop an empirical Bayes method to estimate the variance curves together with their confidence bands and provide an R package for public use. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately capture dynamic behavior of the component variances in terms of mean square errors with a data set of >10,000 twin pairs. Using the proposed methods as an alternative and major extension to the classical twin models, our analyses with a large-scale Finnish twin data set (19,510 MZ twins and 27,312 DZ same-sex twins) discover that the variances of the A, C, and E components for body mass index (BMI) change substantially across life span in different patterns and the heritability of BMI drops to ∼50% after middle age. The results further indicate that the decline of heritability is due to increasing unique environmental variance, which provides

  13. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    SciTech Connect

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to /sup 131/I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum 24 hours after administration (the /sup 131/I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K(exp(-..mu../sub 1/t) - exp(-..mu../sub 2/t)) (..mu..Ci), where ..mu../sub 1/ = lambda/sub r/ + lambda/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), lambda/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and lambda/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of lambda/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptake at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/..mu..Ci-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. The model could prove useful in the dosimetry of very short-lived radioiodines. Tables of age- and sex-dependent coefficients are provided to enable readers to make their own calculations. 12 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  14. Characterizing cognitive aging in humans with links to animal models

    PubMed Central

    Alexander, Gene E.; Ryan, Lee; Bowers, Dawn; Foster, Thomas C.; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Geldmacher, David S.; Glisky, Elizabeth L.

    2012-01-01

    With the population of older adults expected to grow rapidly over the next two decades, it has become increasingly important to advance research efforts to elucidate the mechanisms associated with cognitive aging, with the ultimate goal of developing effective interventions and prevention therapies. Although there has been a vast research literature on the use of cognitive tests to evaluate the effects of aging and age-related neurodegenerative disease, the need for a set of standardized measures to characterize the cognitive profiles specific to healthy aging has been widely recognized. Here we present a review of selected methods and approaches that have been applied in human research studies to evaluate the effects of aging on cognition, including executive function, memory, processing speed, language, and visuospatial function. The effects of healthy aging on each of these cognitive domains are discussed with examples from cognitive/experimental and clinical/neuropsychological approaches. Further, we consider those measures that have clear conceptual and methodological links to tasks currently in use for non-human animal studies of aging, as well as those that have the potential for translation to animal aging research. Having a complementary set of measures to assess the cognitive profiles of healthy aging across species provides a unique opportunity to enhance research efforts for cross-sectional, longitudinal, and intervention studies of cognitive aging. Taking a cross-species, translational approach will help to advance cognitive aging research, leading to a greater understanding of associated neurobiological mechanisms with the potential for developing effective interventions and prevention therapies for age-related cognitive decline. PMID:22988439

  15. The CITRA Research-Practice Consensus-Workshop Model: Exploring a New Method of Research Translation in Aging

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sabir, Myra; Breckman, Risa; Meador, Rhoda; Wethington, Elaine; Reid, M. Carrington; Pillemer, Karl

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: On the basis of the experience of an extensive community-based research partnership in New York City, we developed an innovative process for bridging the gap between aging-related research and practice, using a consensus-workshop model. Design and Methods: We adapted the traditional scientific consensus-workshop model to include…

  16. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a simplified electrochemical and thermal model for Li-ion batteries aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edouard, C.; Petit, M.; Forgez, C.; Bernard, J.; Revel, R.

    2016-09-01

    In this work, a simplified electrochemical and thermal model that can predict both physicochemical and aging behavior of Li-ion batteries is studied. A sensitivity analysis of all its physical parameters is performed in order to find out their influence on the model output based on simulations under various conditions. The results gave hints on whether a parameter needs particular attention when measured or identified and on the conditions (e.g. temperature, discharge rate) under which it is the most sensitive. A specific simulation profile is designed for parameters involved in aging equations in order to determine their sensitivity. Finally, a step-wise method is followed to limit the influence of parameter values when identifying some of them, according to their relative sensitivity from the study. This sensitivity analysis and the subsequent step-wise identification method show very good results, such as a better fitting of the simulated cell voltage with experimental data.

  17. Preparing the Workforce for Healthy Aging Programs: The Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP) Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frank, Janet C.; Altpeter, Mary; Damron-Rodriguez, JoAnn; Driggers, Joann; Lachenmayr, Susan; Manning, Colleen; Martinez, Dana M.; Price, Rachel M.; Robinson, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Current public health and aging service agency personnel have little training in gerontology, and virtually no training in evidence-based health promotion and disease management programs for older adults. These programs are rapidly becoming the future of our community-based long-term care support system. The purpose of this project was to develop…

  18. Model-based machine learning.

    PubMed

    Bishop, Christopher M

    2013-02-13

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications.

  19. Model-based machine learning

    PubMed Central

    Bishop, Christopher M.

    2013-01-01

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications. PMID:23277612

  20. Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Worthey, Guy

    1994-01-01

    The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors

  1. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  2. Continuous Age-Structured Model for Bovine Tuberculosis in African buffalo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anguelov, R.; Kojouharov, H.

    2009-10-01

    The paper deals with a model of the spread of bovine tuberculosis in the buffalo population in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. The model uses continuous age structure and it is formulated in terms of partial differential equations using eight epidemiological classes (compartments). More precisely, the age density for each class at time t satisfies a one way wave equation, where the age is the space variable. The continuous age model discussed here is derived from a 2006 age groups model by P. C. Cross and W. M. Getz.

  3. A statistical model for the study of U-Nb aging (u)

    SciTech Connect

    Hemphill, Geralyn M; Hackenberg, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    This study was undertaken to model the aging response of U-Nb alloys in order to quantify property and lifetime predictions and uncertainties, in response to concerns that aging during long-term stockpile storage may change the microstructure and properties of U-6 wt%Nb alloy components in ways adversely affecting performance. U-6Nb has many desirable properties, but is a complex material because of its gross compositional inhomogeneity (its chemical banding spans 4-8 wt%), its metastable starting microstructure, and the fact that a variety of external factors such as temperature, stress, and gaseous species can cause aging through multiple mechanisms. The most significant aging mechanism identified in earlier studies [2007hac2] is age hardening, phenomenologically defined as increasing hardness and strength and decreasing ductility observed as a function of increasing aging time-at-temperature. The scientific fundamentals of age hardening at temperatures relevant to U-6Nb material processing ({le}200 C) and stockpile storage ({le}60 C) remain unresolved in spite of significant experimental efforts [2007hac2, 2009cla]. Equally problematic is the lack of a well-established U-6Nb component failure criterion. These limitations make the most desirable approach of property response and lifetime prediction - that based on fundamental physics - unattainable at the present time. Therefore, a semi-empirical approach was taken to model the phenomenological property evolution during aging. This enabled lifetime estimates to be made from an assumed failure criterion (derived from a manufacturing acceptance criterion) couched in terms of an age-sensitive property, namely quasi-static tensile elongation to failure. The predictions of this and other age-sensitive properties are also useful for U-6Nb component surveillance studies. Drawing upon a large body of artificial aging data obtained from nonbanded (chemically homogeneous) U-5.6Nb and U-7.7Nb material [2007hacJ ] over 100

  4. Cohesive finite element modeling of age-related toughness loss in human cortical bone.

    PubMed

    Ural, Ani; Vashishth, Deepak

    2006-01-01

    Although the age-related loss of bone quality has been implicated in bone fragility, a mechanistic understanding of the relationship is necessary for developing diagnostic and treatment modalities in the elderly population at risk of fracture. In this study, a finite element based cohesive zone model is developed and applied to human cortical bone in order to capture the experimentally shown rising crack growth behavior and age-related loss of bone toughness. The cohesive model developed here is based on a traction-crack opening displacement relationship representing the fracture processes in the vicinity of a propagating crack. The traction-displacement curve, defining the cohesive model, is composed of ascending and descending branches that incorporate material softening and nonlinearity. The results obtained indicate that, in contrast to initiation toughness, the finite element simulations of crack growth in compact tension (CT) specimens successfully capture the rising R-curve (propagation toughness) behavior and the age-related loss of bone toughness. In close correspondence with the experimentally observed decrease of 14-15% per decade, the finite element simulation results show a decrease of 13% in the R-curve slope per decade. The success of the simulations is a result of the ability of cohesive models to capture and predict the parameters related to bone fracture by representing the physical processes occurring in the vicinity of a propagating crack. These results illustrate that fracture mechanisms in the process zone control bone toughness and any modification to these would cause age-related toughness loss.

  5. EFFECT OF ENGINE-BASED THERMAL AGING ON SURFACE MORPHOLOGY AND PERFORMANCE OF LEAN NOX TRAPS

    SciTech Connect

    Toops, Todd J; Bunting, Bruce G; Nguyen, Ke; Gopinath, Ajit

    2007-01-01

    A small single-cylinder diesel engine is used to thermally age model (Pt + Rh/Ba/{gamma}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) lean NOx traps (LNTs) under lean/rich cycling at target temperatures of 600 C, 700 C, and 800 C. During an aging cycle, fuel is injected into the exhaust to achieve reproducible exotherms under lean and rich conditions with the average temperature approximating the target temperature. Aging is performed until the cycle-average NOx conversion measured at 400 C is approximately constant. Engine-based NOx conversion decreased by 42% after 60 cycles at 600 C, 36% after 76 cycles at 700 C and 57% after 46 cycles at 800 C. The catalyst samples were removed and characterized by XRD and using a microreactor that allowed controlled measurements of surface area, precious metal size, NOx storage, and reaction rates. Three aging mechanisms responsible for the deactivation of LNTs have been identified: (i) loss of dispersion of the precious metals, (ii) phase transitions in the washcoat materials, and (iii) loss of surface area of the storage component and support. These three mechanisms are accelerated when the aging temperature exceeds 850 C--the {gamma} to {delta} transition temperature of Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}. Normalization of rates of NO reacted at 400 C to total surface area demonstrates the biggest impact on performance stems from surface area losses rather than from precious metal sintering.

  6. Development of a distance-based interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes.

    PubMed

    Axe, M J; Snyder-Mackler, L; Konin, J G; Strube, M J

    1996-01-01

    We developed a distance-based interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes (9 to 12 years) to be used in training and rehabilitation. The timing and repetition parameters were developed from data collected during 400 innings of organized baseball during a single season, and short toss distance from Little League rules for field dimensions. There were 1022 boys from organized baseball teams in the four studies. Maximal distance and speed measurements were recorded for 853 boys. We developed a mathematical model from these data to predict maximal throwing distance from maximal throwing speed. This model was then tested on a second sample of 114 players. We compared the predicted distance with the actual maximal throwing distance; the correlation coefficient was 0.92. Forty players aged 9 to 12 participated in a study to assess degradation of speed and distance. The average variability of the speed was small (< 5 mph), but the variability in distance was large (22.4 feet). Fifteen boys then threw the entire throwing program as designed. These results show that healthy young athletes can be expected to be able to throw the predicted value of this practical progressive interval throwing program for Little League-aged athletes. The appropriate program can be assigned from age and known preinjury pitch speed.

  7. Towards the modelling of ageing and atherosclerosis effects in ApoE(-/-) mice aortic tissue.

    PubMed

    Waffenschmidt, Tobias; Cilla, Myriam; Sáez, Pablo; Pérez, Marta M; Martínez, Miguel A; Menzel, Andreas; Peña, Estefanía

    2016-08-16

    The goal of this work consists in a quantitative analysis and constitutive modelling of ageing processes associated to plaque formation in mice arteries. Reliable information on the characteristic evolution of pressure-stretch curves due to the ageing effects is extracted from previous inflation test experiments. Furthermore, characteristic age-dependent material parameters are identified on the basis of a continuum-mechanics-based parameter optimisation technique. The results indicate that the aorta-stiffness of the healthy control mice remains basically constant irrespective of the diet-time and age. In contrast, significant differences exist within the material response and in consequence within the material parameters between the ApoE(-/-) and the control mice as well as for the different locations over the aorta which is underlined by our experimental observations. With regard to the temporal evolution of the material parameters, we observe that the material parameters for the ApoE(-/-) mice aortas exhibit a saturation-type increase with respect to age.

  8. The influence of aging on critical transformation stress levels and martensite start temperatures in NiTi. Part 1: Aged microstructure and micro-mechanical modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Gall, K.; Sehitoglu, H.; Chumlyakov, Y.I.; Kireeva, I.V.; Maier, H.J.

    1999-01-01

    Transmission electron microscopy is used to determine the microstructures of a Ti-50.8 at% Ni alloy given different aging treatments. Two different peak-aging treatments are shown to result in disk shaped semi-coherent Ti{sub 3}Ni{sub 4} precipitates with a diameter ranging from 50 nm to 200 nm depending on the aging temperature. In the peak-aged materials, strong strain fields are clearly visible on TEM micrographs. An Eshelby based model is used to predict the local stress fields due to the differences in the lattice parameters of the precipitates and surrounding matrix. The position dependent local stress fields are then resolved onto the 24 different martensite correspondence variant pairs (CVP`s). It is further demonstrated that due to the unique orientation relationship that exists between the precipitate variants and the martensite CVP`s, the local resolved shear stresses are extremely large on some CVP`s and negligible on others. When the Ni rich NiTi is over-aged, it is found that the precipitates coarsen to approximately 1000 nm, they become in-coherent, and the local stress fields disappear. It is also determined that after over-aging in the average composition of the matrix drops from 50.8 at% Ni to approximately 50.4 at% Ni. In a subsequent paper (part 2) the results here are used to explain the dependence of the critical transformation stress levels and martensite start temperatures on the aging treatment.

  9. Age modelling of late Quaternary marine sequences in the Adriatic: Towards improved precision and accuracy using volcanic event stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowe, J. J.; Blockley, S.; Trincardi, F.; Asioli, A.; Cattaneo, A.; Matthews, I. P.; Pollard, M.; Wulf, S.

    2007-02-01

    The first part of this paper presents a review of the problems that constrain the reliability of radiocarbon-based age models with particular focus on those used to underpin marine records. The reasons why radiocarbon data-sets need to be much more comprehensive than has been the norm hitherto, and why age models should be based on calibrated data only, are outlined. The complexity of the probability structure of calibrated radiocarbon data and the advantages of a Bayesian statistical approach for constructing calibrated age models are illustrated. The second part of the paper tests the potential for reducing the uncertainties that constrain radiocarbon-based age models using tephrostratigraphy. Fine (distal) ash layers of Holocene age preserved in Adriatic prodelta sediments are analysed geochemically and compared to tephras preserved in the Lago Grande di Monticchio site in southern Italy. The Monticchio tephras have been dated both by radiocarbon and varve chronology. The importance of basing such comparisons on standardised geochemical and robust statistical procedures is stressed. In this instance, both the Adriatic and Monticchio geochemical measurements are based on wavelength dispersive spectrometry, while discriminant function analysis is employed for statistical comparisons. Using this approach, the ages of some of the Adriatic marine ash layers could be estimated in Monticchio varve years, circumventing some of the uncertainty of radiocarbon-based age models introduced by marine reservoir effects. Fine (distal) ash layers are more widespread and better preserved in Mediterranean marine sequences than realised hitherto and may offer much wider potential for refining the dating and correlation of Mediterranean marine sequences as well as marine-land correlations.

  10. Sketch-based geologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rood, M. P.; Jackson, M.; Hampson, G.; Brazil, E. V.; de Carvalho, F.; Coda, C.; Sousa, M. C.; Zhang, Z.; Geiger, S.

    2015-12-01

    Two-dimensional (2D) maps and cross-sections, and 3D conceptual models, are fundamental tools for understanding, communicating and modeling geology. Yet geologists lack dedicated and intuitive tools that allow rapid creation of such figures and models. Standard drawing packages produce only 2D figures that are not suitable for quantitative analysis. Geologic modeling packages can produce 3D models and are widely used in the groundwater and petroleum communities, but are often slow and non-intuitive to use, requiring the creation of a grid early in the modeling workflow and the use of geostatistical methods to populate the grid blocks with geologic information. We present an alternative approach to rapidly create figures and models using sketch-based interface and modelling (SBIM). We leverage methods widely adopted in other industries to prototype complex geometries and designs. The SBIM tool contains built-in geologic rules that constrain how sketched lines and surfaces interact. These rules are based on the logic of superposition and cross-cutting relationships that follow from rock-forming processes, including deposition, deformation, intrusion and modification by diagenesis or metamorphism. The approach allows rapid creation of multiple, geologically realistic, figures and models in 2D and 3D using a simple, intuitive interface. The user can sketch in plan- or cross-section view. Geologic rules are used to extrapolate sketched lines in real time to create 3D surfaces. Quantitative analysis can be carried our directly on the models. Alternatively, they can be output as simple figures or imported directly into other modeling tools. The software runs on a tablet PC and can be used in a variety of settings including the office, classroom and field. The speed and ease of use of SBIM enables multiple interpretations to be developed from limited data, uncertainty to be readily appraised, and figures and models to be rapidly updated to incorporate new data or concepts.

  11. Estimating the color of maxillary central incisors based on age and gender

    PubMed Central

    Gozalo-Diaz, David; Johnston, William M.; Wee, Alvin G.

    2008-01-01

    Statement of problem There is no scientific information regarding the selection of the color of teeth for edentulous patients. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate linear regression models that may be used to predict color parameters for central incisors of edentulous patients based on some characteristics of dentate subjects. Material and methods A spectroradiometer and an external light source were set in a noncontacting 45/0 degree (45-degree illumination and 0-degree observer) optical configuration to measure the color of subjects’ vital craniofacial structures (maxillary central incisor, attached gingiva, and facial skin). The subjects (n=120) were stratified into 5 age groups with 4 racial groups and balanced for gender. Linear first-order regression was used to determine the significant factors (α=.05) in the prediction model for each color direction of the color of the maxillary central incisor. Age, gender, and color of the other craniofacial structures were studied as potential predictors. Final predictions in each color direction were based only on the statistically significant factors, and then the color differences between observed and predicted CIELAB values for the central incisors were calculated and summarized. Results The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 36% of the total variability in L*. The statistically significant predictor of age accounted for 16% of the total variability in a*. The statistically significant predictors of age and gender accounted for 21% of the variability in b*. The mean ΔE (SD) between predicted and observed CIELAB values for the central incisor was 5.8 (3.2). Conclusions Age and gender were found to be statistically significant determinants in predicting the natural color of central incisors. Although the precision of these predictions was less than the median color difference found for all pairs of teeth studied, and may be considered an acceptable precision, further

  12. Models for preclinical studies in aging-related disorders: One is not for all

    PubMed Central

    Santulli, Gaetano; Borras, Consuelo; Bousquet, Jean; Calzà, Laura; Cano, Antonio; Illario, Maddalena; Franceschi, Claudio; Liotta, Giuseppe; Maggio, Marcello; Molloy, William D.; Montuori, Nunzia; O’Caoimh, Rónán; Orfila, Francesc; Rauter, Amelia P.; Santoro, Aurelia; Iaccarino, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Preclinical studies are essentially based on animal models of a particular disease. The primary purpose of preclinical efficacy studies is to support generalization of treatment–effect relationships to human subjects. Researchers aim to demonstrate a causal relationship between an investigational agent and a disease-related phenotype in such models. Numerous factors can muddle reliable inferences about such cause-effect relationships, including biased outcome assessment due to experimenter expectations. For instance, responses in a particular inbred mouse might be specific to the strain, limiting generalizability. Selecting well-justified and widely acknowledged model systems represents the best start in designing preclinical studies, especially to overcome any potential bias related to the model itself. This is particularly true in the research that focuses on aging, which carries unique challenges, mainly attributable to the fact that our already long lifespan makes designing experiments that use people as subjects extremely difficult and largely impractical. PMID:27042427

  13. Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Oliveira, A. C. S.; Martins, S. G. F.; Zacarias, M. S.

    2008-01-01

    Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests’ population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coffeella, at different temperatures, considering experimental data relative to the pest. The age structure was inserted into the dynamics through sexual Penna Model. The results obtained, such as life expectancy, growth rate and annual generations’ number, in agreement to those in laboratory and field conditions, show that the simulation can be used as a forecast model for controlling L. coffeella.

  14. Random regression models on Legendre polynomials to estimate genetic parameters for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

    PubMed

    Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G; Alencar, M M

    2010-08-01

    The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions for direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects, and subsequently, to derive relevant genetic parameters for growth traits in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 weight records on 2435 females from birth to adult age. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups (year and month of birth and at weighing) and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were allowed to vary and were modelled by a step function with 1, 4 or 11 classes based on animal's age. The model fitting four classes of residual variances was the best. A total of 12 random regression models from second to seventh order were used to model direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The model with direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects fitted by quadric, cubic, quintic and linear Legendre polynomials, respectively, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Estimates of direct and maternal heritability obtained by multi-trait (seven traits) and random regression models were very similar. Selection for higher weight at any age, especially after weaning, will produce an increase in mature cow weight. The possibility to modify the growth curve in Canchim cattle to obtain animals with rapid growth at early ages and moderate to low mature cow weight is limited.

  15. Splicing-directed therapy in a new mouse model of human accelerated aging.

    PubMed

    Osorio, Fernando G; Navarro, Claire L; Cadiñanos, Juan; López-Mejía, Isabel C; Quirós, Pedro M; Bartoli, Catherine; Rivera, José; Tazi, Jamal; Guzmán, Gabriela; Varela, Ignacio; Depetris, Danielle; de Carlos, Félix; Cobo, Juan; Andrés, Vicente; De Sandre-Giovannoli, Annachiara; Freije, José M P; Lévy, Nicolas; López-Otín, Carlos

    2011-10-26

    Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS) is caused by a point mutation in the LMNA gene that activates a cryptic donor splice site and yields a truncated form of prelamin A called progerin. Small amounts of progerin are also produced during normal aging. Studies with mouse models of HGPS have allowed the recent development of the first therapeutic approaches for this disease. However, none of these earlier works have addressed the aberrant and pathogenic LMNA splicing observed in HGPS patients because of the lack of an appropriate mouse model. Here, we report a genetically modified mouse strain that carries the HGPS mutation. These mice accumulate progerin, present histological and transcriptional alterations characteristic of progeroid models, and phenocopy the main clinical manifestations of human HGPS, including shortened life span and bone and cardiovascular aberrations. Using this animal model, we have developed an antisense morpholino-based therapy that prevents the pathogenic Lmna splicing, markedly reducing the accumulation of progerin and its associated nuclear defects. Treatment of mutant mice with these morpholinos led to a marked amelioration of their progeroid phenotype and substantially extended their life span, supporting the effectiveness of antisense oligonucleotide-based therapies for treating human diseases of accelerated aging.

  16. Urban groundwater age modeling under unconfined condition - Impact of underground structures on groundwater age: Evidence of a piston effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, underground structures are shown to have a major influence on the groundwater mean age distribution described as a dispersive piston effect. Urban underground development does not occur without impacts on subsoil resources. In particular, groundwater resources can be vulnerable and generate disturbances when this space is exploited. Groundwater age spatial distribution data are fundamental for resource management as it can provide operational sustainability indicators. However, the application of groundwater age modeling is neglected regarding the potential effect of underground structures in urban areas. A three dimensional modeling approach was conducted to quantify the impact of two underground structures: (1) an impervious structure and (2) a draining structure. Both structures are shown to cause significant mixing processes occurring between shallow and deeper aquifers. The design technique used for draining structures is shown to have the greatest impact, generating a decrease in mean age of more than 80% under the structure. Groundwater age modeling is shown to be relevant for highlighting the role played by underground structures in advective-dispersive flows in urban areas.

  17. Radiocarbon age modeling: dissolution, bioturbation and sediment redistribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mekik, F.

    2012-12-01

    We generated radiocarbon dates for whole and fragmented planktonic foraminifer tests (by several species) from a series of core tops which have experienced little dissolution from two depth transects (Rio Grande Rise - RIO and Ontong Java Plateau - OJP) and from down core records from three tropical Pacific cores with significantly different sediment accumulation rates. We also generated new radiocarbon data from both whole Globorotalia menardii shells and its fragments within the same sediments in order to test the robustness of a calcite dissolution proxy, the G. menardii Fragmentation Index (MFI). Our data reveal that the ages of all sediment components increase with increasing dissolution. This is most easily observable on RIO where the age offset between the shallowest samples and deepest samples is ~5 ka, while the mixing ages of the cores are ~1.9ka. This result is new and significant because previous work has always been in the tropical Pacific where bioturbation and mixing ages are high. Furthermore, two of the 7 core top samples from RIO revealed whole G. menardii shells of Glacial age. This is surprising because G. menardiis have not been reported in sediments from the Atlantic Ocean older than 13,000 years. Lastly, we found that the higher the sediment accumulation rate, the closer the age offset between G. menradii whole shells and its fragments in the same sediments both on RIO and OJP. This is important for the interpretation of down core work with MFI.

  18. A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McMahon, P.B.; Plummer, L.N.; Böhlke, J.K.; Shapiro, S.D.; Hinkle, S.R.

    2011-01-01

    An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

  19. A comparison of recharge rates in aquifers of the United States based on groundwater-age data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, P. B.; Plummer, L. N.; Böhlke, J. K.; Shapiro, S. D.; Hinkle, S. R.

    2011-06-01

    An overview is presented of existing groundwater-age data and their implications for assessing rates and timescales of recharge in selected unconfined aquifer systems of the United States. Apparent age distributions in aquifers determined from chlorofluorocarbon, sulfur hexafluoride, tritium/helium-3, and radiocarbon measurements from 565 wells in 45 networks were used to calculate groundwater recharge rates. Timescales of recharge were defined by 1,873 distributed tritium measurements and 102 radiocarbon measurements from 27 well networks. Recharge rates ranged from < 10 to 1,200 mm/yr in selected aquifers on the basis of measured vertical age distributions and assuming exponential age gradients. On a regional basis, recharge rates based on tracers of young groundwater exhibited a significant inverse correlation with mean annual air temperature and a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation. Comparison of recharge derived from groundwater ages with recharge derived from stream base-flow evaluation showed similar overall patterns but substantial local differences. Results from this compilation demonstrate that age-based recharge estimates can provide useful insights into spatial and temporal variability in recharge at a national scale and factors controlling that variability. Local age-based recharge estimates provide empirical data and process information that are needed for testing and improving more spatially complete model-based methods.

  20. GDF11 administration does not extend lifespan in a mouse model of premature aging

    PubMed Central

    Freitas-Rodríguez, Sandra; Rodríguez, Francisco; Folgueras, Alicia R.

    2016-01-01

    GDF11 has recently emerged as a powerful anti-aging candidate, found in young blood, capable of rejuvenating a number of aged tissues, such as heart, skeletal muscle and brain. However, recent reports have shown contradictory data questioning its capacity to reverse age-related tissue dysfunction. The availability of a mouse model of accelerated aging, which shares most of the features occurring in physiological aging, gives us an excellent opportunity to test in vivo therapies aimed at extending lifespan both in pathological and normal aging. On this basis, we wondered whether the proposed anti-aging functions of GDF11 would have an overall effect on longevity. We first confirmed the existence of a reduction in GDF11/8 levels in our mouse model of accelerated aging compared with wild-type littermates. However, we show herein that GDF11 daily administration does not extend lifespan of premature-aged mice. PMID:27507054

  1. The ageing lens and cataract: a model of normal and pathological ageing.

    PubMed

    Michael, R; Bron, A J

    2011-04-27

    Cataract is a visible opacity in the lens substance, which, when located on the visual axis, leads to visual loss. Age-related cataract is a cause of blindness on a global scale involving genetic and environmental influences. With ageing, lens proteins undergo non-enzymatic, post-translational modification and the accumulation of fluorescent chromophores, increasing susceptibility to oxidation and cross-linking and increased light-scatter. Because the human lens grows throughout life, the lens core is exposed for a longer period to such influences and the risk of oxidative damage increases in the fourth decade when a barrier to the transport of glutathione forms around the lens nucleus. Consequently, as the lens ages, its transparency falls and the nucleus becomes more rigid, resisting the change in shape necessary for accommodation. This is the basis of presbyopia. In some individuals, the steady accumulation of chromophores and complex, insoluble crystallin aggregates in the lens nucleus leads to the formation of a brown nuclear cataract. The process is homogeneous and the affected lens fibres retain their gross morphology. Cortical opacities are due to changes in membrane permeability and enzyme function and shear-stress damage to lens fibres with continued accommodative effort. Unlike nuclear cataract, progression is intermittent, stepwise and non-uniform.

  2. A new age model for the early-middle Miocene in the North Alpine Foreland Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichenbacher, Bettina; Krijgsman, Wout; Pippèrr, Martina; Sant, Karin; Kirscher, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    The establishment of high-resolution age models for sedimentary successions is crucial for numerous research questions in the geosciences and related disciplines. Such models provide an absolute chronology that permits precise dating of depositional episodes and related processes such as mountain uplift or climate change. Recently, our work in the Miocene sediments of the North Alpine Foreland Basin (NAFB) has revealed a significantly younger age (16.6 Myr) for sediments that were thought to have been deposited 18 Myr ago. This implies that a fundamentally revised new age model is needed for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB (20 to 15-Myr). Our new data also indicate that previously published reconstructions of early-middle Miocene palaeogeography, sedimentation dynamics, mountain uplift and climate change in the NAFB all require a critical review and revision. Further, the time-span addressed is of special interest, since it encompasses the onset of a global warming phase. However, it appears that a fundamentally revised new age model for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB can only be achieved based on a 500 m deep drilling in the NAFB for which we currently seek collaboration partners to develop a grant application to the International Continental Deep Drilling Program (ICDP). Reference: Reichenbacher, B., W. Krijgsman, Y. Lataster, M. Pippèrr, C. G. C. Van Baak, L. Chang, D. Kälin, J. Jost, G. Doppler, D. Jung, J. Prieto, H. Abdul Aziz, M. Böhme, J. Garnish, U. Kirscher, and V. Bachtadse. 2013. A new magnetostratigraphic framework for the Lower Miocene (Burdigalian/Ottnangian, Karpatian) in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. Swiss Journal of Geosciences 106:309-334.

  3. Autophagy drives epidermal deterioration in a Drosophila model of tissue aging.

    PubMed

    Scherfer, Christoph; Han, Violet C; Wang, Yan; Anderson, Aimee E; Galko, Michael J

    2013-04-01

    Organismal lifespan has been the primary readout in aging research. However, how longevity genes control tissue-specific aging remains an open question. To examine the crosstalk between longevity programs and specific tissues during aging, biomarkers of organ-specific aging are urgently needed. Since the earliest signs of aging occur in the skin, we sought to examine skin aging in a genetically tractable model. Here we introduce a Drosophila model of skin aging. The epidermis undergoes a dramatic morphological deterioration with age that includes membrane and nuclear loss. These changes were decelerated in a long-lived mutant and accelerated in a short-lived mutant. An increase in autophagy markers correlated with epidermal aging. Finally, the epidermis of Atg7 mutants retained younger characteristics, suggesting that autophagy is a critical driver of epidermal aging. This is surprising given that autophagy is generally viewed as protective during aging. Since Atg7 mutants are short-lived, the deceleration of epidermal aging in this mutant suggests that in the epidermis healthspan can be uncoupled from longevity. Because the aging readout we introduce here has an early onset and is easily visualized, genetic dissection using our model should identify other novel mechanisms by which lifespan genes feed into tissue-specific aging.

  4. [Anti-aging medicine, a science-based, essential medicine].

    PubMed

    Hertoghe, T; Lhermitte, M C; Poutet, B; Godefroit, C; Privé, D; Baneth, E; Everard, B; Hertoghe, T; Guery, G; Gadomski, A; Walraevens, A; Résimont, S; Wechoko, L; Seny, E; Vollon, K; Claeys, B

    2015-01-01

    Anti-aging medicine is booming. It enters more and more in the programs of universities. Its hormone and nutritional tests and therapies rely on numerous scientific studies, including double-blind placebo-controlled randomized studies. Its methods are often innovative to obtain more information or benefits with greater safety. The fundamental purpose of anti-aging medicine is to optimize health and the quality of life, and through this, make the physical appearance more youthful. Well-chosen and well-dosed these treatments should not increase the risk of age-related diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular diseases, but on the contrary decrease it by the preventive aspect of the treatments. Opponents to anti-aging medicine fail in collecting valid scientific arguments. Their insistence on maintaining a society of elderly people looking and feeling as elderly people rather than actively participating in searching for ways to attenuate aging is harmful to all who follow them, to themselves in the first place.

  5. Age and gender based biomechanical shape and size analysis of the pediatric brain.

    PubMed

    Danelson, Kerry A; Geer, Carol P; Stitzel, Joel D; Slice, Dennis E; Takhounts, Erik G

    2008-11-01

    Injuries caused by motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are the leading cause of head injury and death for children in the United States. This study aims to describe the shape and size (morphologic) changes of the cerebrum, cerebellum, brainstem, and ventricles of the pediatric occupant to better predict injury and assess how these changes affect finite element model (FEM) response. To quantify morphologic differences in the brain, a Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) with a sliding landmark method was conducted to isolate morphologic changes using magnetic resonance images of 63 normal subjects. This type of geometric morphometric analysis was selected for its ability to identify homologous landmarks on structures with few true landmarks and isolate the shape and size of the individuals studied. From the resulting landmark coordinates, the shape and size changes were regressed against age to develop a model describing morphologic changes in the pediatric brain as a function of age. The most statistically significant shape change was in the cerebrum with p-values of 0.00346 for males and 0.00829 for females. The age-based model explains over 80% of the variation in size in the cerebrum. Using size and shape models, affine transformations were applied to the SIMon FEM to determine differences in response given differences in size and size plus shape. The geometric centroid of the elements exceeding 15% strain was calculated and compared to the geometric centroid of the entire structure. Given the same Haversine pulse, the centroid location, a metric for the spatial distribution of the elements exceeding an injury threshold, varied based on which transformation was applied to the model. To assess the overall response of the model, three injury metrics were examined to determine the magnitude of the metrics each element sustained and the overall volume of elements that experienced that value. These results suggested that the overall response of the model was driven by the

  6. Factors associated with the age of the onset of diabetes in women aged 50 years or more: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Valadares, Ana L R; Machado, Vanessa S S; Costa-Paiva, Lúcia S; de Sousa, Maria H; Pinto-Neto, Aarão M

    2014-01-01

    Objective Investigate factors associated with the onset of diabetes in women aged more than 49 years. Design and methods Cross-sectional, population-based study using self-reports with 622 women. The dependent variable was the age of occurrence of diabetes using the life table method. Cox multiple regression models were adjusted to analyse the onset of diabetes according to predictor variables. Sociodemographic, clinical and behavioural factors were evaluated. Results Of the 622 women interviewed, 22.7% had diabetes. The mean age at onset was 56 years. The factors associated with the age of occurrence of diabetes were self-rated health (very good, good) (coefficient=−0.792; SE of the coefficient=0.215; p=0.0001), more than two individuals living in the household (coefficient=0.656, SE of the coefficient=0.223; p=0.003), and body mass index (BMI) (kg/m2) at 20–30 years of age (coefficient= 0.056, SE of the coefficient=0.023; p=0.014). Conclusions Self-rated health considered good or very good was associated with a higher rate of survival without diabetes. Sharing a home with two or more other people and a weight increase at 20–30 years of age was associated with the onset of type 2 diabetes. PMID:25428628

  7. Abnormal glutamate release in aged BTBR mouse model of autism.

    PubMed

    Wei, Hongen; Ding, Caiyun; Jin, Guorong; Yin, Haizhen; Liu, Jianrong; Hu, Fengyun

    2015-01-01

    Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by abnormal reciprocal social interactions, communication deficits, and repetitive behaviors with restricted interests. Most of the available research on autism is focused on children and young adults and little is known about the pathological alternation of autism in older adults. In order to investigate the neurobiological alternation of autism in old age stage, we compared the morphology and synaptic function of excitatory synapses between the BTBR mice with low level sociability and B6 mice with high level sociability. The results revealed that the number of excitatory synapse colocalized with pre- and post-synaptic marker was not different between aged BTBR and B6 mice. The aged BTBR mice had a normal structure of dendritic spine and the expression of Shank3 protein in the brain as well as that in B6 mice. The baseline and KCl-evoked glutamate release from the cortical synaptoneurosome in aged BTBR mice was lower than that in aged B6 mice. Overall, the data indicate that there is a link between disturbances of the glutamate transmission and autism. These findings provide new evidences for the hypothesis of excitation/inhibition imbalance in autism. Further work is required to determine the cause of this putative abnormality.

  8. NMR and molecular modeling: application to wine ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saucier, C.; Pianet, I.; Laguerre, M.; Glories, Y.

    1998-02-01

    Red wine contains polyphenols called tannins which are very important for its taste and longevity. These polymers consist in repeating units of catechin and its epimer epicatechin. During ageing, slow condensation reactions take place which lead to new chemical structures. Among the possible reactions, we have focused our attention on acetaldehyde cross-linking. Catechin was used as a model for the production of polymers with acetaldehyde. Two reaction product fractions have been isolated by liquid chromatography. Mass measurement indicated that these fractions contain dimers. NMR (1D and 2D) and molecular modelling were then used to study the structure and conformations of these products. The first product consist in a pure dimer with the two catechin moieties connected with an ethyl bridge on the carbon 6 and 8. The second fraction was a mixture of two dimers (50/50). NMR measurements showed that it could be two symmetrical dimers involving the same carbon for each catechin moiety (6 or8). Le vin rouge contient des polyphénols appelés tanins qui sont très importants pour son goût et sa longévité. Il s'agit principalement de polymères de catéchine et d'épicatéchine. Durant le vieillissement du vin, des réactions de condensation interviennent lentement et conduisent à de nouvelles structures. Parmi les réactions possibles, nous avons plus spécialement étudié la polymérisation par pontage avec l'éthanal. La catéchine a été utilisée comme modèle de tannin et mise en présence d'éthanal en milieu acide proche du vin. Deux fractions de produits de réaction ont été isolées par chromatographie liquide. La spectrométrie de masse a révélé la présence de dimères. La RMN (1D et 2D) et la modélisation moléculaire ont ensuite été utilisées pour déterminer la structure et la conformation de ces produits. La première fraction a été identifiée comme étant un dimère de deux unités catéchines reliées par un pont éthyle par leur

  9. Thermal analysis of pentaerythritol tetranitrate and development of a powder aging model

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Geoffrey W; Sandstrom, Mary M; Giambra, Anna M; Archuleta, Jose G; Monroe, Deirde C

    2009-01-01

    We have applied a range of different physical and thermal analysis techniques to characterize the thermal evolution of the specific surface area of pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) powders. Using atomic force microscopy we have determined that the mass transfer mechanism leading to powder coarsening is probably sublimation and redeposition of PETN. Using thermogravimetric analysis we have measured vapor pressures of PETN powders whose aging will be simulated in future work. For one specific powder we have constructed an empirical model of the coarsening that is fit to specific surface area measurements at 60 C to 70 C to provide predictive capability of that powder's aging. Modulated differential scanning calorimetry and mass spectroscopy measurements highlight some of the thermal behavior of the powders and suggest that homologue-based eutectics and impurities are localized in the powder particles.

  10. Predicting successful aging in a population-based sample of georgia centenarians.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; Macdonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C; Jazwinski, S Michal; Poon, Leonard W

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0-80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80-98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life.

  11. Designing a Programming-Based Approach for Modelling Scientific Phenomena

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Gordon; Hoyles, Celia; Noss, Richard

    2005-01-01

    We describe an iteratively designed sequence of activities involving the modelling of one-dimensional collisions between moving objects based on programming in ToonTalk. Students aged 13-14 years in two settings (London and Cyprus) investigated a number of collision situations, classified into six classes based on the relative velocities and…

  12. Age-at-death estimation based on radiological and image analysis methods in clavicle in a current Spanish population.

    PubMed

    Benito, María; Sánchez, José Antonio; Codinha, Sónia

    2014-05-01

    Age-at-death estimation in adult individuals is one of the most challenging issues in forensic anthropology, namely, due to the large age intervals provided by the current methods, which demand the development of more reliable investigations. The clavicle has been studied as an age-at-death indicator in many researches for its accessibility, low biomechanical implication in locomotion and accuracy to predict age at death when other age indicators are not available. The present study was developed on a sample of 332 clavicles from adult individuals of known sex and age from the current Spanish population. They were x-rayed and digitalized, in a standardized way, using a Sedecal X-ray generator, model SHF 415. Three indices were calculated at the mid-diaphysis point (anterior index, posterior index, and total index) which relate the cortical thickness and the total clavicle thickness to age at death. The average grey level was also calculated in a 0.5-cm(2) area of the sternal and acromial ends (sternal grey average, acromial grey average), using Image J software. The data were subjected to a statistical analysis, using SPSS, version 15.0. The results show that average grey level has a weaker correlation with age than the variables which are based on the cortical thickness. On the other hand, the regression equations, which were calculated combining all the variables, provided smaller age-at-death intervals, demonstrating the usefulness of this method for adult age-at-death estimation in forensic anthropology.

  13. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    PubMed

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

  14. Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yican; Shao, Yiming; Ruan, Yuhua; Xu, Jianqing; Ma, Zhien; Mei, Changlin; Wu, Jianhong

    2008-04-01

    HIV transmission process involves a long incubation and infection period, and the transmission rate varies greatly with infection stage. Consequently, modeling analysis based on the assumption of a constant transmission rate during the entire infection period yields an inaccurate description of HIV transmission dynamics and long-term projections. Here we develop a general framework of mathematical modeling that takes into account this heterogeneity of transmission rate and permits rigorous estimation of important parameters using a regression analysis of the twenty-year reported HIV infection data in China. Despite the large variation in this statistical data attributable to the knowledge of HIV, surveillance efforts, and uncertain events, and although the reported data counts individuals who might have been infected many years ago, our analysis shows that the model structured on infection age can assist us in extracting from this data set very useful information about transmission trends and about effectiveness of various control measures.

  15. Exceptional Brain Aging in a Rural Population-Based Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaye, Jeffrey; Michael, Yvonne; Calvert, James; Leahy, Marjorie; Crawford, Debbie; Kramer, Patricia

    2009-01-01

    Context: The 2000 US Census identified 50,454 Americans over the age of 100. Increased longevity is only of benefit if accompanied by maintenance of independence and quality of life. Little is known about the prevalence of dementia and other disabling conditions among rural centenarians although this information is important to clinicians caring…

  16. Brain-Based Teaching in the Digital Age

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sprenger, Marilee

    2010-01-01

    In the digital age, your students have the ways, means, and speed to gather any information they want. But they need your guidance more than ever. Discover how digital technology is actually changing your students' brains. Learn why this creates new obstacles for teachers, but also opens up potential new pathways for learning. You will understand…

  17. The Evolution with Age of Probabilistic, Intuitively Based Misconceptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischbein, Efraim; Schnarch, Ditza

    1997-01-01

    Describes a study that investigated probabilistic intuitions held by students (N=98) from grade 7 through college through the use of a questionnaire. Of the misconceptions that were investigated, availability was the only one that was stable across age groups. Contains 20 references. (DDR)

  18. Radiocarbon Based Ages and Growth Rates: Hawaiian Deep Sea Corals

    SciTech Connect

    Roark, E B; Guilderson, T P; Dunbar, R B; Ingram, B L

    2006-01-13

    The radial growth rates and ages of three different groups of Hawaiian deep-sea 'corals' were determined using radiocarbon measurements. Specimens of Corallium secundum, Gerardia sp., and Leiopathes glaberrima, were collected from 450 {+-} 40 m at the Makapuu deep-sea coral bed using a submersible (PISCES V). Specimens of Antipathes dichotoma were collected at 50 m off Lahaina, Maui. The primary source of carbon to the calcitic C. secundum skeleton is in situ dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Using bomb {sup 14}C time markers we calculate radial growth rates of {approx} 170 {micro}m y{sup -1} and ages of 68-75 years on specimens as tall as 28 cm of C. secundum. Gerardia sp., A. dichotoma, and L. glaberrima have proteinaceous skeletons and labile particulate organic carbon (POC) is their primary source of architectural carbon. Using {sup 14}C we calculate a radial growth rate of 15 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of 807 {+-} 30 years for a live collected Gerardia sp., showing that these organisms are extremely long lived. Inner and outer {sup 14}C measurements on four sub-fossil Gerardia spp. samples produce similar growth rate estimates (range 14-45 {micro}m y{sup -1}) and ages (range 450-2742 years) as observed for the live collected sample. Similarly, with a growth rate of < 10 {micro}m y{sup -1} and an age of {approx}2377 years, L. glaberrima at the Makapuu coral bed, is also extremely long lived. In contrast, the shallow-collected A. dichotoma samples yield growth rates ranging from 130 to 1,140 {micro}m y{sup -1}. These results show that Hawaiian deep-sea corals grow more slowly and are older than previously thought.

  19. A computational model associating learning process, word attributes, and age of acquisition.

    PubMed

    Hidaka, Shohei

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new model-based approach linking word learning to the age of acquisition (AoA) of words; a new computational tool for understanding the relationships among word learning processes, psychological attributes, and word AoAs as measures of vocabulary growth. The computational model developed describes the distinct statistical relationships between three theoretical factors underpinning word learning and AoA distributions. Simply put, this model formulates how different learning processes, characterized by change in learning rate over time and/or by the number of exposures required to acquire a word, likely result in different AoA distributions depending on word type. We tested the model in three respects. The first analysis showed that the proposed model accounts for empirical AoA distributions better than a standard alternative. The second analysis demonstrated that the estimated learning parameters well predicted the psychological attributes, such as frequency and imageability, of words. The third analysis illustrated that the developmental trend predicted by our estimated learning parameters was consistent with relevant findings in the developmental literature on word learning in children. We further discuss the theoretical implications of our model-based approach.

  20. Methodology for the Incorporation of Passive Component Aging Modeling into the RAVEN/ RELAP-7 Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Mandelli, Diego; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua; Alfonsi, Andrea; Askin Guler; Tunc Aldemir

    2014-11-01

    Passive system, structure and components (SSCs) will degrade over their operation life and this degradation may cause to reduction in the safety margins of a nuclear power plant. In traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using the event-tree/fault-tree methodology, passive SSC failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data and the true state of a specific plant is not reflected realistically. To address aging effects of passive SSCs in the traditional PRA methodology [1] does consider physics based models that account for the operating conditions in the plant, however, [1] does not include effects of surveillance/inspection. This paper represents an overall methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive components into the RAVEN/RELAP-7 environment which provides a framework for performing dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties (including those associated with maintenance activities) in a consistent phenomenological and probabilistic framework and is often needed when there is complex process/hardware/software/firmware/ human interaction [2]. Dynamic PRA has gained attention recently due to difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics based models and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems. RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control Environment) [3] is a software package under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as an online control logic driver and post-processing tool. It is coupled to the plant transient code RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) also currently under development at INL [3], as well as RELAP 5 [4]. The overall methodology aims to: • Address multiple aging mechanisms involving large number of components in a computational feasible manner where sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation

  1. An Age-Graded Model for Career Development Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuckman, Bruce W.

    1974-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a framework by which educators interested in stimulating career development can choose the learning experiences most likely to have payoffs for different age youth. Eight stages of child development are described with career development themes suggested for each stage along with sample activities. (Author)

  2. Aging and Predicting Inferences: A Diffusion Model Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKoon, Gail; Ratcliff, Roger

    2013-01-01

    In the domain of discourse processing, it has been claimed that older adults (60-0-year-olds) are less likely to encode and remember some kinds of information from texts than young adults. The experiment described here shows that they do make a particular kind of inference to the same extent that college-age adults do. The inferences examined were…

  3. The use of urinary proteomics in the assessment of suitability of mouse models for ageing

    PubMed Central

    Nkuipou-Kenfack, Esther; Schanstra, Joost P.; Bajwa, Seerat; Pejchinovski, Martin; Vinel, Claire; Dray, Cédric; Valet, Philippe; Bascands, Jean-Loup; Vlahou, Antonia; Koeck, Thomas; Borries, Melanie; Busch, Hauke; Bechtel-Walz, Wibke; Huber, Tobias B.; Rudolph, Karl L.; Pich, Andreas; Mischak, Harald; Zürbig, Petra

    2017-01-01

    Ageing is a complex process characterised by a systemic and progressive deterioration of biological functions. As ageing is associated with an increased prevalence of age-related chronic disorders, understanding its underlying molecular mechanisms can pave the way for therapeutic interventions and managing complications. Animal models such as mice are commonly used in ageing research as they have a shorter lifespan in comparison to humans and are also genetically close to humans. To assess the translatability of mouse ageing to human ageing, the urinary proteome in 89 wild-type (C57BL/6) mice aged between 8–96 weeks was investigated using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS). Using age as a continuous variable, 295 peptides significantly correlated with age in mice were identified. To investigate the relevance of using mouse models in human ageing studies, a comparison was performed with a previous correlation analysis using 1227 healthy subjects. In mice and humans, a decrease in urinary excretion of fibrillar collagens and an increase of uromodulin fragments was observed with advanced age. Of the 295 peptides correlating with age, 49 had a strong homology to the respective human age-related peptides. These ortholog peptides including several collagen (N = 44) and uromodulin (N = 5) fragments were used to generate an ageing classifier that was able to discriminate the age among both wild-type mice and healthy subjects. Additionally, the ageing classifier depicted that telomerase knock-out mice were older than their chronological age. Hence, with a focus on ortholog urinary peptides mouse ageing can be translated to human ageing. PMID:28199320

  4. Modeling the Mechanical Consequences of Age-Related Trabecular Bone Loss by XFEM Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Ruoxun; Zhang, Xianbin; Liu, Jun; Jia, Zhengbin; Zhu, Dong

    2016-01-01

    The elderly are more likely to suffer from fracture because of age-related trabecular bone loss. Different bone loss locations and patterns have different effects on bone mechanical properties. Extended finite element method (XFEM) can simulate fracture process and was suited to investigate the effects of bone loss on trabecular bone. Age-related bone loss is indicated by trabecular thinning and loss and may occur at low-strain locations or other random sites. Accordingly, several ideal normal and aged trabecular bone models were created based on different bone loss locations and patterns; then, fracture processes from crack initiation to complete failure of these models were observed by XFEM; finally, the effects of different locations and patterns on trabecular bone were compared. Results indicated that bone loss occurring at low-strain locations was more detrimental to trabecular bone than that occurring at other random sites; meanwhile, the decrease in bone strength caused by trabecular loss was higher than that caused by trabecular thinning, and the effects of vertical trabecular loss on mechanical properties were more severe than horizontal trabecular loss. This study provided a numerical method to simulate trabecular bone fracture and distinguished different effects of the possible occurrence of bone loss locations and patterns on trabecular bone. PMID:27403206

  5. Rb-Sr age of a Luna 16 basalt and the model age of lunar soils.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papanastassiou, D. A.; Wasserburg, G. J.

    1972-01-01

    An internal isochron was determined on a small basalt fragment (sample B-1) returned from the Luna 16 mission, which yields an age of 3.42 plus or minus 0.8 b.y. and a low initial Sr87/Sr86 value. A comparison is made of the data from four lunar missions to mare sites which shows that the last period of major flooding of the mare basins is confined to a narrow time interval of only 0.55 b.y. The direct evidence of major lunar magmatic activity appears to be confined to the interval from 3.1 to 4.0 b.y. The Sr87/Sr86 values for all mare basalts are extremely primitive and lie in a rather narrow range. A diagram is given for initial Sr87/Sr86 as a function of time for all lunar rocks.

  6. Model-based tomographic reconstruction

    DOEpatents

    Chambers, David H; Lehman, Sean K; Goodman, Dennis M

    2012-06-26

    A model-based approach to estimating wall positions for a building is developed and tested using simulated data. It borrows two techniques from geophysical inversion problems, layer stripping and stacking, and combines them with a model-based estimation algorithm that minimizes the mean-square error between the predicted signal and the data. The technique is designed to process multiple looks from an ultra wideband radar array. The processed signal is time-gated and each section processed to detect the presence of a wall and estimate its position, thickness, and material parameters. The floor plan of a building is determined by moving the array around the outside of the building. In this paper we describe how the stacking and layer stripping algorithms are combined and show the results from a simple numerical example of three parallel walls.

  7. Mechanical properties of silorane-based and methacrylate-based composite resins after artificial aging.

    PubMed

    de Castro, Denise Tornavoi; Lepri, César Penazzo; Valente, Mariana Lima da Costa; dos Reis, Andréa Cândido

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the compressive strength of a silorane-based composite resin (Filtek P90) to that of conventional composite resins (Charisma, Filtek Z250, Fill Magic, and NT Premium) before and after accelerated artificial aging (AAA). For each composite resin, 16 cylindrical specimens were prepared and divided into 2 groups. One group underwent analysis of compressive strength in a universal testing machine 24 hours after preparation, and the other was subjected first to 192 hours of AAA and then the compressive strength test. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance, followed by the Tukey HSD post hoc test (α = 0.05). Some statistically significant differences in compressive strength were found among the commercial brands (P < 0.001). The conventional composite resin Fill Magic presented the best performance before (P < 0.05) and after AAA (P < 0.05). Values for compressive strength of the silorane-based composite were among the lowest obtained, both before and after aging. Comparison of each material before and after AAA revealed that the aging process did not influence the compressive strength of the tested resins (P = 0.785).

  8. All age-depth models are wrong, but are getting better

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trachsel, Mathias; Chipperfield, Joseph D.; Telford, Richard J.

    2015-04-01

    Construction of accurate age-depth relationships and realistic assessment of their uncertainties is one of the fundamental prerequisites for comparing and correlating Late Quaternary stratigraphic proxy records. Four widely used age-depth modelling routines: i) clam, ii) OxCal, iii) Bacon, and iv) Bchron were tested using radiocarbon dates simulated from varved sediment stratigraphies. All methods produced average age-depth models that were close to the true varve age, but the uncertainty estimation differed considerably among models. Age uncertainties were underestimated by clam, whereas age uncertainties produced by Bchron were too large. Using OxCal and Bacon, setting of model specific parameters influenced the estimated uncertainties, which varied from too large to too small. Still, compared to the study by Telford et al. (2004), the use of Bayesian age-depth models greatly improved on the assessment of uncertainties of age-depth models. Reference: Telford et al. (2004), All age-depth models are wrong: but how badly? Quaternary Science Reviews, 23,1-5.

  9. Correlation Based Geomagnetic Field Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holschneider, M.; Mauerberger, S.; Lesur, V.; Baerenzung, J.

    2015-12-01

    We present a new method for determining geomagnetic field models. It is based on the construction of an a priori correlation structure derived from our knowledge about characteristic length scales and sources of the geomagnetic field. The magnetic field measurements are then seen as correlated random variables too and the inversion process amounts to compute the a posteriori correlation structure using Bayes theorem. We show how this technique allows the statistical separation of the various field contributions and the assessment of their uncertainties.

  10. Phospholipase A2 – nexus of aging, oxidative stress, neuronal excitability, and functional decline of the aging nervous system? Insights from a snail model system of neuronal aging and age-associated memory impairment

    PubMed Central

    Hermann, Petra M.; Watson, Shawn N.; Wildering, Willem C.

    2014-01-01

    The aging brain undergoes a range of changes varying from subtle structural and physiological changes causing only minor functional decline under healthy normal aging conditions, to severe cognitive or neurological impairment associated with extensive loss of neurons and circuits due to age-associated neurodegenerative disease conditions. Understanding how biological aging processes affect the brain and how they contribute to the onset and progress of age-associated neurodegenerative diseases is a core research goal in contemporary neuroscience. This review focuses on the idea that changes in intrinsic neuronal electrical excitability associated with (per)oxidation of membrane lipids and activation of phospholipase A2 (PLA2) enzymes are an important mechanism of learning and memory failure under normal aging conditions. Specifically, in the context of this special issue on the biology of cognitive aging we portray the opportunities offered by the identifiable neurons and behaviorally characterized neural circuits of the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis in neuronal aging research and recapitulate recent insights indicating a key role of lipid peroxidation-induced PLA2 as instruments of aging, oxidative stress and inflammation in age-associated neuronal and memory impairment in this model system. The findings are discussed in view of accumulating evidence suggesting involvement of analogous mechanisms in the etiology of age-associated dysfunction and disease of the human and mammalian brain. PMID:25538730

  11. NMR based investigations of the effects of aging on the motional properties of cellular silicone foams

    SciTech Connect

    Maxwell, R S; Balazs, B

    2000-10-04

    The aging of polymeric composite materials, such as filled polydimethylsiloxane foams, through factors such as thermal and mechanical stresses, environment, radiation, and chemical attack can affect the length of time for which a given material can maintain its engineering performance. Iterative interactions and cumulative reactions may result in the material or device reaching a critical age where its properties fail unexpectedly and catastrophically. The mechanical property changes associated with multi-mechanism aging may be subtle, and may not necessarily change linearly as a function of time in service. Since such linear relationships are often used in lifetime predictions, there is a fundamental need to develop and employ spectroscopic methods to investigate the structural and motional changes that occur in these organic-inorganic materials as a result of aging in chemically, thermally, or radioactively harsh environments. We have used multinuclear nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to characterize aging signatures in a series of PDMS based composite materials. Unfortunately, {sup 13}C, {sup 29}Si, and {sup 1}H magic angle spinning NMR spectra remain unchanged with gamma radiation exposure up to 50Mrad. This suggests that the speciation related changes are small and occur at a frequency of less than approximately 1% of the monomer units. As a result, we have shifted focus and have employed relaxation studies to monitor changes in motional properties of the copolymer foams caused by irradiation. We have measured spin-lattice, spin-spin, and rotating frame spin-lattice relaxation times for PDMS model rubbers with variable cross link density and filler content, for M9760 foams irradiated from 0 to 50Mrad, and for dehydrated M9760 foams. Spin-lattice relaxation times, in general, are sensitive to fast molecular motions in the MHz frequency range. Spin-spin and rotating frame relaxation times, on the other hand, are sensitive to changes in slower motion

  12. Tritium-based age/streamflow relationships and catchment function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, M. K.; Morgenstern, U.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding runoff generation is important for management of freshwater systems. Determining transit time distributions (TTDs) of streamwaters and how they change with flow gives information on the flowpaths and water storages in catchments - fundamental for understanding the responses of streams to stressors such as pollution, land use change and climate change. This work uses tritium measurements on single samples to determine TTDs and how they change with flow. Such use of tritium is only practical so far in the Southern Hemisphere, because of its much-lower input of bomb-tritium in the 1960s. Another advantage of tritium is that it reveals the full spectrum of ages present in streams, whereas oxygen-18 or chloride variations only show younger ages (i.e. truncated TTDs). Case studies are presented for two New Zealand catchments, both with volcanic ash substrates. The first (Toenepi) is a dairy catchment near Hamilton, which shows well-constrained power law relationships between mean transit time (MTT) and flow, and between silica concentration and flow. Baseflow MTTs vary from 2.5 to 157 years. The second (Tutaeuaua) is a pastoral farming catchment near Taupo. Results for nested catchments along the stream also show power law relationships for both MTT and silica with flow. Baseflow MTTs vary from 1 to 11 years. Although the MTT data could be represented approximately by straight lines in log-log plots, hysteresis effects due to catchment wetness variations did disturb the relationships. Having TTDs from individual samples focusses attention on the nature of the water storages supplying the stream at the times of sampling. The flow record contains information on catchment function, which can enhance the value of the age data, provided such information can be satisfactorily interpreted. A new baseflow estimation method is used to determine the slow storage (aka groundwater) fraction in the stream. The age data is showing that slow storages have mean ages of

  13. Do the Instructors Differ in Their Behavioral Intention to Adopt E-Learning Based on Age, Gender, and Internet Experience?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Altawallbeh, Manal; Thiam, Wun; Alshourah, Sultan; Fong, Soon Fook

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this research is to examine if there are differences of the age, gender, and internet experience on behavioural intention to adopt e-learning of the instructors in Jordanian universities. The paper takes a social, and technical approach in its investigation by using a research model based on the ANOVA and t-test Analysis to identify if…

  14. Deposition times in the northeastern United States during the Holocene: establishing valid priors for Bayesian age models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goring, S.; Williams, J. W.; Blois, J. L.; Jackson, S. T.; Paciorek, C. J.; Booth, R. K.; Marlon, J. R.; Blaauw, M.; Christen, J. A.

    2012-08-01

    Age-depth relationships in sedimentary archives such as lakes, wetlands and bogs are non-linear with irregular probability distributions associated with calibrated radiocarbon dates. Bayesian approaches are thus well-suited to understanding relationships between age and depth for use in paleoecological studies. Bayesian models for the accumulation of sediment and organic matter within basins combine dated material from one or more records with prior information about the behavior of deposition times (yr/cm) based on expert knowledge. Well-informed priors are essential to good modeling of the age-depth relationship, but are particularly important in cases where data may be sparse (e.g., few radiocarbon dates), or unclear (e.g., age-reversals, coincident dates, age offsets, outliers and dates within a radiocarbon plateau). Here we assessed Holocene deposition times using 204 age-depth models obtained from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database (www.neotomadb.org) for both lacustrine and palustrine environments across the northeastern United States. These age-depth models were augmented using biostratigraphic events identifiable within pollen records from the northeastern United States during the Holocene and late-Pleistocene. Deposition times are significantly related to depositional environment (palustrine and lacustrine), sediment age, and sediment depth. Spatial variables had non-significant relationships with deposition time when site effects were considered. The best-fit model was a generalized additive mixed model that relates deposition time to age, stratified by depositional environment with site as a random factor. The best-fit model accounts for 63.3% of the total deviance in deposition times. The strongly increasing accumulation rates of the last 500-1000 years indicate that gamma distributions describing lacustrine deposition times (α = 1.08, β = 18.28) and palustrine deposition times (α = 1.23, β = 22.32) for the entire Holocene may be insufficient for

  15. Lack of spontaneous age-related brain pathology in Octodon degus: a reappraisal of the model

    PubMed Central

    Bourdenx, Mathieu; Dovero, Sandra; Thiolat, Marie-Laure; Bezard, Erwan; Dehay, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by the degeneration of specific brain areas associated with accumulation of disease-related protein in extra- or intra-cellular deposits. Their preclinical investigations are mostly based on genetically-engineered animals. Despite their interest, these models are often based on high level of disease-related protein expression, thus questioning their relevance to human pathology and calling for the alternate use of ecological models. In the past few years, Octodon degus has emerged as a promising animal model displaying age-dependent Alzheimer’s disease-related pathology. As neurodegenerative-related proteins often co-deposit in the brain of patients, we assessed the occurrence of α-synuclein-related pathology in this model using state-of-the-art immunohistochemistry and biochemistry. Despite our efforts and in contrast with previously published results, our study argues against the use of Octodon degus as a suitable natural model of neurodegenerative disorder as we failed to identify either Parkinson’s disease- or Alzheimer’s disease-related brain pathologies. PMID:28374864

  16. UTAUT Model for Blended Learning: The Role of Gender and Age in the Intention to Use Webinars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khechine, Hager; Lakhal, Sawsen; Pascot, Daniel; Bytha, Alphonse

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the paper was to determine the factors that explain the acceptance of a webinar system (Elluminate) in a blended learning course by students. The effects of gender and age as moderating variables were also studied. Our hypotheses were based on the unified theory of acceptance and use of the technology model, which was proven to be…

  17. Core Numerical Skills for Learning Mathematics in Children Aged Five to Eight Years--A Working Model for Educators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aunio, Pirjo; Räsänen, Pekka

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to model the most crucial numerical factors to the development of mathematical skills among children aged five to eight years (i.e. kindergarten, preschool, first and second graders). We categorised numerical skills into four main groups based on the results of longitudinal studies. A series of analyses of test batteries…

  18. Age models for peat deposits on the basis of coupled lead-210 and radiocarbon data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piotrowska, Natalia; de Vleeschouwer, François; Sikorski, Jarosław; Sensuła, Barbara; Michczyński, Adam; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Palowski, Bernard

    2010-05-01

    The study presents three examples of age-model construction based on the results of 210Pb and 14C dating methods applied to peat deposits. The three sites are ombrotrophic peat bogs: the Misten (Belgium), Slowinskie Bloto (N Poland) and Puscizna Mala (S Poland). All sites have been subjected to multiproxy studies aimed at reconstructing paleoenvironment and human activity, covering the last 1500, 1300 and 1800 years, respectively (De Vleeschouwer et al. 2009A, 2009B, in prep., Fialkiewicz-Koziel, ongoing PhD). A detailed comparison between 210Pb and post-bomb 14C results in the Misten bog has also been carried out by Piotrowska et al. (2009). In all cores, the 210Pb activity was calculated using 210Po and 208Po activities after acid-extraction from bulk samples, subsequent deposition on silver discs and measurements by alpha spectrometry. Unsupported 210Pb was detected until 35cm in Slowinskie Bloto, 15cm in the Misten and 19cm in Puscizna Mala. Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model was then applied to compute ages of each 1-cm core interval. For the Misten and Slowinskie Bloto, radiocarbon measurements were performed on selected aboveground plant macrofossils, mainly Sphagnum spp. or Calluna vulgaris, Erica tetralix, and Andromeda polyfolia. Radiocarbon ages were determined using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) after acid-alkali-acid wash, combustion, purification of carbon dioxide and graphitisation. For Puscizna Mala bulk samples were dated after chemical preparation of benzene for liquid scintillation counting (LSC) or CO2 for gas proportional counting (GPC). Radiocarbon calibration was undertaken using the Intcal04 calibration curve and OxCal 4 software. As a priori information the 210Pb-derived ages were used in a P_Sequence model (Bronk Ramsey, 2008). A number of dates characterized by low agreement with stratigraphical order had to be considered as outliers and rejected from the final age model. For building a continuous age models a non-linear approach

  19. Construction of mass-age curves for the continental crust: An empirical model and an example from the western US

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Depaolo, D. J.; Schubert, G. S.; Linn, Ann

    1988-01-01

    The methodology of determining crustal mass-age curves is discussed. Problems in doing this include determination of model ages and accounting for mixing of materials of different ages during crust forming processes. These difficulties can be overcome with some reasonable assumptions and estimates of rock volumes based on areal proportions. This technique was used to construct a reasonably well constrained mass-age curve for the southwestern U.S. based on isotopic measurements on over 100 samples. The results imply that the crust in this area grew episodically at 2.8, 1.8, and 0.1 Ga. It is estimated that it would take on the order of 10000 to 100000 individual Sm-Nd isotopic measurements to carry out a similar exercise for continental crust world wide.

  20. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  1. Toward an animal model of extinction-induced despair: focus on aging and physiological indices.

    PubMed

    Huston, Joseph P; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2009-08-01

    Behaviors that are under the control of positive or negative reinforcers undergo extinction when the anticipated reward/reinforcer is withheld. Despair, an important symptom of environmentally determined depression in humans, can be generated by extinction, or the failure of expected reward to accrue. Although well known to clinicians dealing with depressive patients, an animal model has not been available for extinction-induced depression. We have made a beginning towards validating such a model, based on the extinction of negatively reinforced behavior in the rat, i.e., upon removal of the possibility to escape onto a safety platform in the water maze. As a marker for despair, we employed behavioral immobility, i.e., the cessation of swimming in the attempt to find safety from the water, presumably, a type of learned helplessness. This measure was sensitive to antidepressants and correlated with neurotransmitter contents, neurotrophins and hypothalamus-pituitary adrenal axis markers in selected sites of the brain. Given that some cases of depression in the elderly may be biologically distinct from others and from early-onset depression, and since particularly the aged are prone to experience extinction-induced despair, we compared aged (ca. 24 months old) animals with adults in most of our studies. We found a number of distinct differences in behavioral and biological measures, indicative of differences in propensity to, as well as response to, extinction-induced despair between aged and adults. Our results add to the body of evidence for differences in the neurobiological substrates of depressive disorders between aged and adults, with the implication for the requirement of different treatment strategies in these two populations.

  2. An expectation-based memory deficit in aging.

    PubMed

    Bollinger, Jacob; Rubens, Michael T; Masangkay, Edrick; Kalkstein, Jonathan; Gazzaley, Adam

    2011-05-01

    Memory performance can be enhanced by expectations regarding the appearance of ensuing stimuli. Here, we investigated the influence of stimulus-category expectation on memory performance in aging, and used fMRI to explore age-related alterations in associated neural mechanisms. Unlike younger adults, who demonstrated both working memory (WM) and long-term memory (LTM) performance benefits for face stimuli when this stimulus category was expected, older adults did not exhibit these memory benefits. Concordantly, older adults did not exhibit expectation-period activity modulation in visual association cortex (i.e., fusiform face area (FFA)), unlike younger adults. However, within the older population, individuals who demonstrated face-expectation memory benefits also exhibited expectation-period FFA activity modulation equivalent to younger adults. The older cohort also displayed diminished expectation-related functional connectivity between regions of the prefrontal cortex and the FFA, relative to younger adults, suggesting that network alterations underlie the absence of expectation-mediated cortical modulation and memory benefits. This deficit may have broader consequences for the effective utilization of predictive cues to guide attention and engender optimal cognitive performance in older individuals.

  3. Crowdsourcing Based 3d Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somogyi, A.; Barsi, A.; Molnar, B.; Lovas, T.

    2016-06-01

    Web-based photo albums that support organizing and viewing the users' images are widely used. These services provide a convenient solution for storing, editing and sharing images. In many cases, the users attach geotags to the images in order to enable using them e.g. in location based applications on social networks. Our paper discusses a procedure that collects open access images from a site frequently visited by tourists. Geotagged pictures showing the image of a sight or tourist attraction are selected and processed in photogrammetric processing software that produces the 3D model of the captured object. For the particular investigation we selected three attractions in Budapest. To assess the geometrical accuracy, we used laser scanner and DSLR as well as smart phone photography to derive reference values to enable verifying the spatial model obtained from the web-album images. The investigation shows how detailed and accurate models could be derived applying photogrammetric processing software, simply by using images of the community, without visiting the site.

  4. Aging and strain softening model for episodic faulting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    1979-01-01

    Episodic slip on shallow crustal faults can be qualitatively explained by postulating a fault constitutive law that is the superposition of two limiting material responses: (1) strain softening after peak stress during large strain rates, and (2) strength (peak stress) recovery during aging at small strain rates. A single law permits a variety of seismic and aseismic phenomena to occur over a range of space and time scales. Specific cases are determined by the spatial variation of material constants, recent deformation history, crustal rigidity, and remote forcing. ?? 1979.

  5. Modeling single-vehicle run-off-road crash severity in rural areas: Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and age difference.

    PubMed

    Gong, Linfeng; Fan, Wei David

    2017-04-01

    This study investigates factors that significantly contribute to the severity of driver injuries resulting from single-vehicle run-off-road (SV ROR) crashes. A mixed logit model approach is employed to explore the potential unobserved heterogeneous effects associated with each age group: young (ages 16-24), middle-aged (ages 25-65), and older drivers (ages over 65). Likelihood ratio tests indicated that the development of separate injury severity models for each age group is statistically superior to estimating a single model using all data. Based on the crash data collected from 2009 to 2013 in North Carolina, a series of driver, vehicle, roadway, and environmental characteristics are examined. Both parameter estimates and their elasticities are developed and used to interpret the models. The estimation results show that contributing factors which significantly affect the injury severity of an SV ROR crash differ across three age groups. Use of restraint device and horizontal curves are found to affect crash injuries and fatalities in all age groups. Reckless driving, speeding, distraction, inexperience, drug or alcohol involvement, presence of passengers, and driving an SUV or a van are found to have a more pronounced influence in young and middle-aged drivers than older drivers. Compared to the passenger cars, older drivers are less likely to experience possible injuries in a large-size vehicle (e.g., truck or bus). The average annual daily traffic volume and lighting conditions are also found to influence the resulting injury severity of an SV ROR crash specific to young drivers.

  6. The analysis of aging and elderly age quality in empirical research: data based on University of the Third Age (U3A) students.

    PubMed

    Zielińska-Więczkowska, Halina; Muszalik, Marta; Kędziora-Kornatowska, Kornelia

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate aging and elderly age quality in elderly individuals and persons entering the elderly age participating U3A continuous education courses. The research included 255 students of the U3A located in Bydgoszcz, Poland. The research included 235 women and 20 men of mean age 64.43 years. The dominant group was persons with secondary education (65.9%), and higher education (28.2%) as well as married (54.5%). All of the subjects included in the study were fully mobile. The study was conducted based on authors' original questionnaire which consisted of 24 questions and a basic personal data form surveying age, gender, marital status, level of education as well as self-reported illnesses and health problems. The research assumed the majority of positive responses as the sign of happy aging and experiencing one's own old age. Positive correlation was observed between the statement that human beings influence quality and shape of their lives, and therefore they are responsible for their own life. The higher the level of fulfilling aims in life the more frequently elderly age was perceived as a happy period. In the research data there was a relationship observed between levels of education and discrimination, i.e., the higher level of education the fewer cases of discrimination experienced: χ(2)=12.992 (df=2; p<0.01). Moreover, a very weak correlation was observed between marital status and a sense or absence of sense of emptiness in life ρ=0.128; p<0.05. The most appreciated values in life, according to the subjects were health, happiness in family and mental efficiency. The biggest worries concerned serious diseases and being dependent on other people. Most often indicated ways to lead happy elderly life were being active and open to people as well as showing optimistic attitude. The research, which was conducted on a relatively large group of people (n=255), proves positive aging direction among the elderly and persons entering late

  7. A Rat Model System to Study Complex Disease Risks, Fitness, Aging, and Longevity

    PubMed Central

    Koch, Lauren Gerard; Britton, Steven L.; Wisløff, Ulrik

    2012-01-01

    The association between low exercise capacity and all-cause morbidity and mortality is statistically strong yet mechanistically unresolved. By connecting clinical observation with a theoretical base, we developed a working hypothesis that variation in capacity for oxygen metabolism is the central mechanistic determinant between disease and health (aerobic hypothesis). As an unbiased test, we show that two-way artificial selective breeding of rats for low and high intrinsic endurance exercise capacity also produces rats that differ for numerous disease risks including the metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular complications, premature aging, and reduced longevity. This contrasting animal model system may prove to be translationally superior, relative to more widely-used simplistic models for understanding geriatric biology and medicine. PMID:22867966

  8. The African Turquoise Killifish: A Model for Exploring Vertebrate Aging and Diseases in the Fast Lane.

    PubMed

    Harel, Itamar; Brunet, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Why and how organisms age remains a mystery, and it defines one of the biggest challenges in biology. Aging is also the primary risk factor for many human pathologies, such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, manipulating the aging rate and potentially postponing the onset of these devastating diseases could have a tremendous impact on human health. Recent studies, relying primarily on nonvertebrate short-lived model systems, have shown the importance of both genetic and environmental factors in modulating the aging rate. However, relatively little is known about aging in vertebrates or what processes may be unique and specific to these complex organisms. Here we discuss how advances in genomics and genome editing have significantly expanded our ability to probe the aging process in a vertebrate system. We highlight recent findings from a naturally short-lived vertebrate, the African turquoise killifish, which provides an attractive platform for exploring mechanisms underlying vertebrate aging and age-related diseases.

  9. Oxidative Damage in the Aging Heart: an Experimental Rat Model

    PubMed Central

    Marques, Gustavo Lenci; Neto, Francisco Filipak; Ribeiro, Ciro Alberto de Oliveira; Liebel, Samuel; de Fraga, Rogério; Bueno, Ronaldo da Rocha Loures

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Several theories have been proposed to explain the cause of ‘aging’; however, the factors that affect this complex process are still poorly understood. Of these theories, the accumulation of oxidative damage over time is among the most accepted. Particularly, the heart is one of the most affected organs by oxidative stress. The current study, therefore, aimed to investigate oxidative stress markers in myocardial tissue of rats at different ages. Methods: Seventy-two rats were distributed into 6 groups of 12 animals each and maintained for 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months. After euthanasia, the heart was removed and the levels of non-protein thiols, lipid peroxidation, and protein carbonylation, as well as superoxide dismutase and catalase activities were determined. Results: Superoxide dismutase, catalase activity and lipid peroxidation were reduced in the older groups of animals, when compared with the younger group. However, protein carbonylation showed an increase in the 12-month group followed by a decrease in the older groups. In addition, the levels of non-protein thiols were increased in the 12-month group and not detected in the older groups. Conclusion: Our data showed that oxidative stress is not associated with aging in the heart. However, an increase in non-protein thiols may be an important factor that compensates for the decrease of superoxide dismutase and catalase activity in the oldest rats, to maintain appropriate antioxidant defenses against oxidative insults. PMID:27006709

  10. Model-based Utility Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbard, Bill

    2012-05-01

    Orseau and Ring, as well as Dewey, have recently described problems, including self-delusion, with the behavior of agents using various definitions of utility functions. An agent's utility function is defined in terms of the agent's history of interactions with its environment. This paper argues, via two examples, that the behavior problems can be avoided by formulating the utility function in two steps: 1) inferring a model of the environment from interactions, and 2) computing utility as a function of the environment model. Basing a utility function on a model that the agent must learn implies that the utility function must initially be expressed in terms of specifications to be matched to structures in the learned model. These specifications constitute prior assumptions about the environment so this approach will not work with arbitrary environments. But the approach should work for agents designed by humans to act in the physical world. The paper also addresses the issue of self-modifying agents and shows that if provided with the possibility to modify their utility functions agents will not choose to do so, under some usual assumptions.

  11. The National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry: A Sustainable Model for the Information Age?

    PubMed Central

    Dutton, Richard P.

    2014-01-01

    Anesthesiologists care for patients of all ages, with all conceivable comorbidities, in every kind of health care facility. This leads to a significant challenge in the collection of data to describe the specialty, and in the development of evidence-based performance measures for anesthesiologists. Whereas narrowly defined medical specialties have developed registries based on manual abstraction of clinical data from the medical record (e.g., cardiac surgery), this approach would be prohibitively expensive for anesthesiology, and is unlikely to generate statistically useful data when major adverse outcomes occur a handful of times in tens of thousands of cases. The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) addressed this challenge in 2008 by funding a related organization, the Anesthesia Quality Institute (AQI), to develop the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry (NACOR). The technical development of this registry and the approach taken to define the specialty of anesthesiology and the performance of anesthesiologists may serve as a model for other specialty society efforts. PMID:25848607

  12. Equilibrium population dynamics when mating is by mutual choice based on age.

    PubMed

    Alpern, Steve; Katrantzi, Ioanna; Ramsey, David

    2014-06-01

    We consider a steady state model of mutual mate choice in which an individual's mate preferences depend on his/her age, and the preferences are over the ages of prospective mates of the opposite sex. We present a discrete time (and age) model corresponding to successive mating seasons. Males are fertile for m periods (corresponding to 'age' i=1 to m) and females for n≤m periods (they have ages j=1 to n), which is all that distinguishes the sexes. Although we can deal with arbitrary preferences, we concentrate on a simple fertility model where the common utility to a male age i and female age j who mate is the number K=min(m-i+1,n-j+1) of future periods of joint fertility. The incoming sex ratio R of age 1 males to age 1 females is given exogenously. In each period individuals are randomly (non assortatively) matched and form a mated couple by mutual consent; otherwise they go into the next period unmated and older. We derive properties of equilibrium threshold acceptance strategies and establish the existence of time-invariant age distributions. Our methods determine the age distribution of couples at marriage (mating) and the population sex ratio (OSR) at equilibrium. Since this can be determined empirically in a population, our model can be used to rule out most systems of age preferences (those not consistent with the observed distribution). This extends earlier models of mutual choice with one dimensional types of Alpern and Reyniers [1999. Strategic mating with homotypic preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 198, 71-88; 2005. Strategic mating with common preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 237, 337-354] where individuals sought, respectively, individuals with similar or high types, but in those models an individual's type was fixed over time. Under the simple fertility model, at equilibrium the maximum age of an acceptable partner is increasing in the age of the searcher. Our results relate to discussions in the literature regarding optimal parental age differences, age

  13. The integrate model of emotion, thinking and self regulation: an application to the "paradox of aging".

    PubMed

    Williams, Leanne M; Gatt, Justine M; Hatch, Ainslie; Palmer, Donna M; Nagy, Marie; Rennie, Christopher; Cooper, Nicholas J; Morris, Charlotte; Grieve, Stuart; Dobson-Stone, Carol; Schofield, Peter; Clark, C Richard; Gordon, Evian; Arns, Martijn; Paul, Robert H

    2008-09-01

    This study was undertaken using the INTEGRATE Model of brain organization, which is based on a temporal continuum of emotion, thinking and self regulation. In this model, the key organizing principle of self adaption is the motivation to minimize danger and maximize reward. This principle drives brain organization across a temporal continuum spanning milliseconds to seconds, minutes and hours. The INTEGRATE Model comprises three distinct processes across this continuum. Emotion is defined by automatic action tendencies triggered by signals that are significant due to their relevance to minimizing danger-maximizing reward (such as abrupt, high contrast stimuli). Thinking represents cognitive functions and feelings that rely on brain and body feedback emerging from around 200 ms post-stimulus onwards. Self regulation is the modulation of emotion, thinking and feeling over time, according to more abstract adaptions to minimize danger-maximize reward. Here, we examined the impact of dispositional factors, age and genetic variation, on this temporal continuum. Brain Resource methodology provided a standardized platform for acquiring genetic, brain and behavioral data in the same 1000 healthy subjects. Results showed a "paradox" of declining function in the "thinking" time scale over the lifespan (6 to 80+ years), but a corresponding preservation or even increase in automatic functions of "emotion" and "self regulation". This paradox was paralleled by a greater loss of grey matter in cortical association areas (assessed using MRI) over age, but a relative preservation of subcortical grey matter. Genetic polymorphisms associated with both healthy function and susceptibility to disorder (including the BDNFVal(66)Met, COMTVal(158/108)Met, MAOA and DRD4 tandem repeat and 5HTT-LPR polymorphisms) made specific contributions to emotion, thinking and self regulatory functions, which also varied according to age.

  14. Hind limb unloading, a model of spaceflight conditions, leads to decreased B lymphopoiesis similar to aging.

    PubMed

    Lescale, Chloé; Schenten, Véronique; Djeghloul, Dounia; Bennabi, Meriem; Gaignier, Fanny; Vandamme, Katleen; Strazielle, Catherine; Kuzniak, Isabelle; Petite, Hervé; Dosquet, Christine; Frippiat, Jean-Pol; Goodhardt, Michele

    2015-02-01

    Within the bone marrow, the endosteal niche plays a crucial role in B-cell differentiation. Because spaceflight is associated with osteoporosis, we investigated whether changes in bone microstructure induced by a ground-based model of spaceflight, hind limb unloading (HU), could affect B lymphopoiesis. To this end, we analyzed both bone parameters and the frequency of early hematopoietic precursors and cells of the B lineage after 3, 6, 13, and 21 d of HU. We found that limb disuse leads to a decrease in both bone microstructure and the frequency of B-cell progenitors in the bone marrow. Although multipotent hematopoietic progenitors were not affected by HU, a decrease in B lymphopoiesis was observed as of the common lymphoid progenitor (CLP) stage with a major block at the progenitor B (pro-B) to precursor B (pre-B) cell transition (5- to 10-fold decrease). The modifications in B lymphopoiesis were similar to those observed in aged mice and, as with aging, decreased B-cell generation in HU mice was associated with reduced expression of B-cell transcription factors, early B-cell factor (EBF) and Pax5, and an alteration in STAT5-mediated IL-7 signaling. These findings demonstrate that mechanical unloading of hind limbs results in a decrease in early B-cell differentiation resembling age-related modifications in B lymphopoiesis.

  15. Development of the Japanese reference man model for age-specific phantoms.

    PubMed

    Kawamura, Hisao

    2012-03-01

    Recent interest in improving methods for calculating radiation doses to atomic bomb survivors necessitates reinforcing the data on masses of organs of the Japanese population in 1945, including those that are not calculated by DS02, as well as increasing the number of phantoms for different ages. Reference is made to published data on the masses of organs in normal Japanese subjects of 0-90 y of age with more than 5000 samples during 1970-80, as well as the weight and size of the total body. The first Japanese Reference Man model, primarily based on these data and following the ICRP Reference Man concept, is briefly explained. It provides a set of reference values for males and females of six age groups, i.e. 3 months, 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20-50 y. To consider the organ masses of the Japanese population in 1945, the data during the period 1970-80 are compared with the literature data of normal Japanese reported in 1952. Differences between the two sets of organ data in adults are discussed in relation to changes in the national status of nutrition. Additional organ masses of current interest for the Japanese population in 1945 are preliminarily considered.

  16. DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

    PubMed

    Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

    2016-09-28

    Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10(-9)), independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10(-4)), and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10(-43)). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

  17. Research on BOM based composable modeling method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Mingxin; He, Qiang; Gong, Jianxing

    2013-03-01

    Composable modeling method has been a research hotpot in the area of Modeling and Simulation for a long time. In order to increase the reuse and interoperability of BOM based model, this paper put forward a composable modeling method based on BOM, studied on the basic theory of composable modeling method based on BOM, designed a general structure of the coupled model based on BOM, and traversed the structure of atomic and coupled model based on BOM. At last, the paper introduced the process of BOM based composable modeling and made a conclusion on composable modeling method based on BOM. From the prototype we developed and accumulative model stocks, we found this method could increase the reuse and interoperability of models.

  18. Comparisons of infant mortality using a percentile-based method of standardization for birthweight or gestational age.

    PubMed

    Hertz-Picciotto, I; Din-Dzietham, R

    1998-01-01

    Comparisons of infant, perinatal, or neonatal mortality across populations with different birthweight or gestational age distributions are problematic. Summary measures with adjustment for birthweight or gestational age frequently are invalid or lack interpretability. We propose a percentile-based method of standardization for comparing infant, perinatal, or neonatal mortality across populations that have different distributions of birthweight and/or gestational age. The underlying concept is a simple one: comparable health for two population groups will be expressed as equal rates of disease or mortality at equal quantiles in the two distributions of birthweight or gestational age. We describe this method mathematically and present an example comparing mortality rates for African-American vs European-American infants in North Carolina. When gestational age is transformed to its rank, the well-known crossover in mortality rates, in which preterm African-American infants die at lower rates but term infants at higher rates, disappears: African-Americans show higher mortality rates at any percentile of gestational age. With homogeneous mortality rate ratios, a summary statistic becomes meaningful. We also demonstrate adjustment for percentile-transformed gestational age or birthweight in multiple logistic regression models. Percentile standardization is easily implemented, has advantages over other methods of internal standardization such as that of Wilcox and Russell, and communicates an intuitive public health-based concept of equality of mortality across populations.

  19. Model Based Inference for Wire Chafe Diagnostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuet, Stefan R.; Wheeler, Kevin R.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Kowalski, Marc Edward

    2009-01-01

    Presentation for Aging Aircraft conference covering chafing fault diagnostics using Time Domain Reflectometry. Laboratory setup and experimental methods are presented, along with initial results that summarize fault modeling and detection capabilities.

  20. GPU-Accelerated Molecular Modeling Coming Of Age

    PubMed Central

    Stone, John E.; Hardy, David J.; Ufimtsev, Ivan S.

    2010-01-01

    Graphics processing units (GPUs) have traditionally been used in molecular modeling solely for visualization of molecular structures and animation of trajectories resulting from molecular dynamics simulations. Modern GPUs have evolved into fully programmable, massively parallel co-processors that can now be exploited to accelerate many scientific computations, typically providing about one order of magnitude speedup over CPU code and in special cases providing speedups of two orders of magnitude. This paper surveys the development of molecular modeling algorithms that leverage GPU computing, the advances already made and remaining issues to be resolved, and the continuing evolution of GPU technology that promises to become even more useful to molecular modeling. Hardware acceleration with commodity GPUs is expected to benefit the overall computational biology community by bringing teraflops performance to desktop workstations and in some cases potentially changing what were formerly batch-mode computational jobs into interactive tasks. PMID:20675161

  1. Aging and symptoms of anxiety and depression: structural invariance of the tripartite model.

    PubMed

    Teachman, Bethany A; Siedlecki, Karen L; Magee, Joshua C

    2007-03-01

    Negative affect measures were evaluated in a cross-sectional community sample of adults aged 18-93 (N = 335) to examine the structure of neuroticism, anxiety, and depressive symptoms in young, middle, and older adult cohorts. Structural equation modeling was used to contrast 3 nested models: a 1-factor general distress model; a 2-factor high negative-low positive affect model; and a 3-factor "tripartite model" reflecting a higher order Negative Affect factor that is common to depression and anxiety problems and 2 lower order factors, Low Positive Affect (mostly specific to depression) and Arousal (specific to anxiety/panic). As expected, the tripartite model fit best for all age groups. Further, multigroup analyses indicated age invariance for the tripartite model, suggesting the model can be effectively applied with older populations.

  2. Estimating Age-Specific Immunity and Force of Infection of Varicella Zoster Virus in Norway Using Mixture Models

    PubMed Central

    Rimseliene, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero

    2016-01-01

    This study applies mixture modelling to examine age-specific immunity to varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection in Norway based on the first large-scale serological study in the general population. We estimated the seropositive proportions at different ages and calculated the underlying force of infection by using a sample of 2103 residual sera obtained from patients seeking primary and hospital care. A rapid increase in the VZV-associated immunity is observed in the first years of life with 63% of children being immune by age 5. The increase in the immunity levels slows down thereafter, with a large proportion of adults still susceptible by age 20 (around 14.5%), thus at risk of serious sequelae of varicella infection. The corresponding force of infection peaks during the preschool period, subsequently declines to a minimum between ages 10 and 20 years, and afterwards moderately increases to reach a plateau lasting throughout the childbearing period. In comparison with the traditional cut-off approach, mixture modelling used the whole data without producing any inconclusive cases, led to an unbiased classification of individuals between susceptible and immune, and provided a smoother immune profile by age. These findings represent an important step towards any decision about the introduction of varicella vaccination in Norway, as they are a primary input for mathematical transmission models aimed at evaluating potential vaccination scenarios. PMID:27689800

  3. Aging-like skin changes induced by ultraviolet irradiation in an animal model of metabolic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Akase, Tomoko; Nagase, Takashi; Huang, Lijuan; Ibuki, Ai; Minematsu, Takeo; Nakagami, Gojiro; Ohta, Yasunori; Shimada, Tsutomu; Aburada, Masaki; Sugama, Junko; Sanada, Hiromi

    2012-04-01

    Both physiological skin aging and pathologic photo-aging caused by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation are mediated by latent inflammation and oxidative stress. Although numerous animal skin-aging models have used UV irradiation, most require massive doses or long-term irradiation. To establish a more refined skin-aging model, we focused on an animal model of metabolic syndrome (MS) because MS involves damage to various organs via oxidative stress or inflammation, similar to the changes associated with aging. We hypothesized that MS skin might exhibit more aging-like changes after milder, shorter-term UV irradiation than would normal animal skin under similar conditions, thus providing a useful model for skin aging. The authors therefore examined the skin from Tsumura Suzuki obese diabetic (TSOD) mice (MS model) and control Tsumura Suzuki non-obese (TSNO) mice before and after UV irradiation. Skin from TSOD mice had a thinner epidermis and dermis, a thicker fatty layer, reduced density and convolution of the fragmented collagen fibers, and upregulated expression of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, a dual marker for inflammation and aging, compared to the skin from TSNO mice. UV irradiation affected TSOD skin more severely than TSNO skin, resulting in various changes resembling those in aged human skin, including damage to the dermis and subcutaneous fatty tissue, infiltration of inflammatory cells, and further upregulation of TNF-α expression. These results suggest that UV-irradiated TSOD mice may provide a new model of skin aging and imply that skin from humans with MS is more susceptible to UV- or aging-related damage than normal human skin.

  4. Regional specificity of MRI contrast parameter changes in normal ageing revealed by voxel-based quantification (VBQ).

    PubMed

    Draganski, B; Ashburner, J; Hutton, C; Kherif, F; Frackowiak, R S J; Helms, G; Weiskopf, N

    2011-04-15

    Normal ageing is associated with characteristic changes in brain microstructure. Although in vivo neuroimaging captures spatial and temporal patterns of age-related changes of anatomy at the macroscopic scale, our knowledge of the underlying (patho)physiological processes at cellular and molecular levels is still limited. The aim of this study is to explore brain tissue properties in normal ageing using quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) alongside conventional morphological assessment. Using a whole-brain approach in a cohort of 26 adults, aged 18-85years, we performed voxel-based morphometric (VBM) analysis and voxel-based quantification (VBQ) of diffusion tensor, magnetization transfer (MT), R1, and R2* relaxation parameters. We found age-related reductions in cortical and subcortical grey matter volume paralleled by changes in fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), MT and R2*. The latter were regionally specific depending on their differential sensitivity to microscopic tissue properties. VBQ of white matter revealed distinct anatomical patterns of age-related change in microstructure. Widespread and profound reduction in MT contrasted with local FA decreases paralleled by MD increases. R1 reductions and R2* increases were observed to a smaller extent in overlapping occipito-parietal white matter regions. We interpret our findings, based on current biophysical models, as a fingerprint of age-dependent brain atrophy and underlying microstructural changes in myelin, iron deposits and water. The VBQ approach we present allows for systematic unbiased exploration of the interaction between imaging parameters and extends current methods for detection of neurodegenerative processes in the brain. The demonstrated parameter-specific distribution patterns offer insights into age-related brain structure changes in vivo and provide essential baseline data for studying disease against a background of healthy ageing.

  5. Modeling Age-Related Differences in Immediate Memory Using SIMPLE

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Surprenant, Aimee M.; Neath, Ian; Brown, Gordon D. A.

    2006-01-01

    In the SIMPLE model (Scale Invariant Memory and Perceptual Learning), performance on memory tasks is determined by the locations of items in multidimensional space, and better performance is associated with having fewer close neighbors. Unlike most previous simulations with SIMPLE, the ones reported here used measured, rather than assumed,…

  6. Ageing of Insensitive DNAN Based Melt-Cast Explosives

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-01

    Systems Division Defence Science and Technology Organisation DSTO-TN-1332 ABSTRACT DNAN or 2,4-dinitroanisole is a new melt- cast matrix that...replaces traditional TNT based melt- cast explosives. Aside from sensitiveness improvements, the use of DNAN allows for the continued operation of

  7. Agreement between maternal interview- and medical record-based gestational age.

    PubMed

    Hakim, R B; Tielsch, J M; See, L C

    1992-09-01

    Agreement between maternal interview- and medical record-based gestational age was assessed by using data from a case-control study of childhood strabismus. The sample consisted of 383 cases of strabismus and their age-matched controls, diagnosed between 1985 and 1986 in Baltimore, Maryland, who were under age 7 years when diagnosed. Medical record-based gestational age was derived, in order of priority, from early ultrasound examination, time from the last menstrual period, pediatric examination, and obstetric examination. The intraclass correlation coefficient, kappa, and mean difference were used to compare agreement between maternal interview- and medical record-based gestational age by maternal and pregnancy characteristics and characteristics related to study design. Overall, 86 percent of mothers were within 2 weeks of the gestational age reported in the medical record. The intraclass correlation coefficient comparing maternal and medical record-based gestational age was 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.86). Agreement was positively associated with shorter length of recall, low birth order, and having a neonatal illness related to prematurity. Agreement was poor among mothers of healthy preterm infants. There was a weak positive association between recall and some sociodemographic covariates. There was greater misclassification of prematurity in the controls than in the cases. The results suggest that, in general, women recall gestational age well, which supports the use of gestational age derived from maternal interviews.

  8. Biometry based ageing of nestling Indian Spotted Owlets ( Athene brama brama)

    PubMed Central

    Pande, Satish; Pawashe, Amit; Mahajan, Mahadeo N.; Mahabal, Anil; Yosef, Reuven; Dahanukar, Neelesh

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Biometric analysis helps in sex differentiation, understanding development and for studies of avian biology such as foraging ecology, evolutionary ecology, and survivorship. We suggest that biometry can also be a reliable, practical and inexpensive tool to determine the age of nestlings in the field by non-invasive methods. As an example we studied the biometry of wing, culmen, talon, tarsus and body mass of nestling southern Indian Spotted Owlets (Athene brama brama). Based on the growth pattern analysis using logistic growth model, discriminant analysis and CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) based decision tree, we show that biometry of nestling Spotted Owlets is an easy, reliable and inexpensive method to determine nestling age and to assess growth rate and relative nutritional status. These biometric parameters also allow us to predict their ability to initiate first flight from the nest site. This method is described here for the first time and we postulate that such charts can be devised for other avian species as well, so as to assist conservation biologists and bird rescuers. PMID:22140335

  9. Circadian typology, age, and the alternative five-factor personality model in an adult women sample.

    PubMed

    Muro, Anna; Gomà-i-Freixanet, Montserrat; Adan, Ana; Cladellas, Ramon

    2011-10-01

    Research on personality and circadian typology indicates evening-type women are more impulsive and novelty seeking, neither types are more anxious, and morning types tend to be more active, conscientious, and persistent. The purpose of this study is to examine the differences between circadian typologies in the light of the Zuckerman's Alternative Five-Factor Model (AFFM) of personality, which has a strong biological basis, in an adult sample of 412 women 18 to 55 yrs of age. The authors found morning-type women had significant higher scores than evening-type and neither-type women on Activity, and its subscales General Activity and Work Activity. In contrast, evening-type women scored significantly higher than morning-type women on Aggression-Hostility, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, and its subscale Sensation Seeking. In all groups, results were independent of age. These findings are in accordance with those previously obtained in female student samples and add new data on the AFFM. The need of using personality models that are biologically based in the study of circadian rhythms is discussed.

  10. Using synthetic models to simulate aging of Cu contamination in soils.

    PubMed

    Proffit, S; Marin, B; Cances, B; Ponthieu, M; Sayen, S; Guillon, E

    2015-05-01

    The Bureau Commun de Référence (BCR) sequential extraction scheme and micro-synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence (μ-SXRF) analysis were used to determine the Cu fractionation in a calcareous vineyard soil and a synthetic soil (mixture of seven constituents: calcite, birnessite, ferrihydrite, goethite, lignocellulosic residue, kaolinite, and quartz) at different Cu contamination rates (190, 1270, and 6350 mg kg(-1) of Cu) and aging times (1, 30, 92, and 181 days). The Cu distribution in the spiked vineyard and synthetic soils was different from the original vineyard one and was influenced by the loading level. The newly added Cu was preferentially present in the acid soluble fraction. Aging of the contaminated vineyard and synthetic soils during 6 months led to the redistribution of Cu from the weakly bound acid soluble fraction to the strongly bound reducible one. The evolution with time could satisfactorily be simulated by the Elovich diffusion model for the synthetic soils. It was less significant as less marked in the contaminated vineyard soil than in the synthetic one, even though the trends observed in both were similar. This study supported the hypothesis that "simple" synthetic models could be used to approach the Cu fractionation and its evolution with time in vineyard soils.

  11. In vivo animal models of body composition in aging

    SciTech Connect

    Yasumura, S. |; Jones, K.; Spanne, P.; Schidlovsky, G.; Wielopolski, L.; Ren, X.; Glaros, D.; Xatzikonstantinou, Y. |

    1992-12-31

    We developed several techniques that provide data on body elemental composition from in vivo measurements in rats. These methods include total body potassium by whole-body counting of endogenous {sup 40}K; total body calcium (TBCa), sodium and chloride by in vivo neutron activation analysis and total body phosphorus (TBP) and nitrogen (TBN) by photon activation analysis. These elements provide information on total body fat, total body protein and skeletal mass. Measurements were made in 6-, 12- and 24-month-old rats. TBN Increased slightly between 6 and 12 months but was significantly lower by 24 months, indicating a substantial loss in total body protein. Working at the National Synchrotron light Source, we studied rat femurs by computed microtomography (CMT), and the elemental profile of the femur cortex by synchrotron-radiation induced X-ray emission (SRIXE). Although there were no significant changes in TBCA and TBP, indices of skeletal mass, CMT revealed a marked increase in the size and number of cavities in the endosteal region of the femur cortex with increasing age. The SRIXE analysis of this cortical bone revealed a parallel decrease in the endosteal Ca/P ratio. Thus, there are major alterations in bone morphology and regional elemental composition despite only modest changes in total skeletal mass.

  12. Modelling realistic horizontal branch morphologies and their impact on spectroscopic ages of unresolved stellar systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Percival, Susan M.; Salaris, Maurizio

    2011-04-01

    The presence of an extended blue horizontal branch (HB) in a stellar population is known to affect the age inferred from spectral fitting to stellar population synthesis models. This is due to the hot blue component which increases the strength of the Balmer lines and can make an old population look spuriously young. However, most population synthesis models still rely on theoretical isochrones, which do not include realistic modelling of extended HBs. In this work, we create detailed models for a range of old simple stellar populations (SSPs), with metallicities ranging from [Fe/H]=-1.3 to solar, to create a variety of realistic HB morphologies, from extended red clumps, to extreme blue HBs. We achieve this by utilizing stellar tracks from the BaSTI data base and implementing a different mass-loss prescription for each SSP created. This includes setting an average mass and a Gaussian spread in masses of individual stars coming on to the zero-age HB for each model, and hence resulting in different HB morphologies. We find that, for each metallicity, there is some HB morphology which maximizes Hβ, making an underlying 14-Gyr population look ˜5-6 Gyr old for the low- and intermediate-metallicity cases, and as young as 2 Gyr in the case of the solar metallicity SSP. We explore whether there are any spectral indices capable of breaking the degeneracy between an old SSP with extended blue HB and a truly young or intermediate-age SSP, and find that the Ca II index of Rose and the strength of the Mg II doublet at 2800 Å are promising candidates, in combination with Hβ and other metallicity indicators, such as Mgb and Fe5406. We also run Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the level of statistical fluctuations in the spectra of typical stellar clusters. We find that fluctuations in spectral indices are significant even for average to large globular clusters and that various spectral indices are affected in different ways, which has implications for full

  13. ChronRater: A simple approach to assessing the accuracy of age models from Holocene sediment cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaufman, D. S.; Balascio, N. L.; McKay, N. P.; Sundqvist, H. S.

    2013-12-01

    We have assembled a database of previously published Holocene proxy climate records from the Arctic, with the goal of reconstructing the spatial-temporal pattern of past climate changes. The focus is on well-dated, highly resolved, continuous records that extend to at least 6 ka, most of which (90%) are from sedimentary sequences sampled in cores from lakes and oceans. The database includes the original geochronological data (radiocarbon ages) for each record so that the accuracy of the underlying age models can be assessed uniformly. Determining the accuracy of age control for sedimentary sequences is difficult because it depends on many factors, some of which are difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, the geochronological accuracy of each time series in the database must be assessed systematically to objectively identify those that are appropriate to address a particular level of temporal inquiry. We have therefore devised a scoring scheme to rate the accuracy of age models that focuses on the most important factors and uses just the most commonly published information to determine the overall geochronological accuracy. The algorithm, "ChronRater" is written in the open-source statistical package, R. It relies on three characteristics of dated materials and their downcore trends: (1) The delineation of the downcore trend, which is quantified based on three attributes, namely: (a) the frequency of ages, (b) the regularity of their spacing, and (c) the uniformity of the sedimentation rate. (2) The quality of the dated materials, as determined by: (a) the proportion of outliers and downcore reversals, and (b) the type of materials analyzed and the extent to which their ages are verified by independent information as judged by a five-point scale for the entire sequence of ages. And (3) the overall uncertainty in the calibrated ages, which includes the analytical precision and the associated calibrated age ranges. Although our geochronological accuracy score is

  14. Defending Air Bases in an Age of Insurgency

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-01

    espe - cially Demorah Hayes, Oreste “O. J.” Johnson, Sandi Davis, Vivian O’Neal, Daniel Armstrong, and so many others. This book provides a unique...systems that stretched from Switzerland to the English Channel.5 These battle lines were stationary and rarely shifted more than a few hundred me- ters...perimeter fence line as a legal demarcation, despite General Westmoreland’s call for unit and base self-protection. Here the USAF looked to other ser

  15. Conscientiousness, health, and aging: the life course of personality model.

    PubMed

    Shanahan, Michael J; Hill, Patrick L; Roberts, Brent W; Eccles, Jacquelynne; Friedman, Howard S

    2014-05-01

    The Conscientiousness (C) of the self and significant others influences health by way of mediational chains involving socioeconomic attainment, the avoidance and neutralization of stressors, the promotion of health behaviors and the minimization of risk behaviors, and the management of symptoms and diseases. Yet, meta-analyses reveal that these associations are moderated by factors that are not well understood. We propose the Life Course of Personality Model (LCP Model), which comprises a series of hypotheses that suggest how such mediational chains are subject to 2 sources of contingency. First, the mechanisms by which C translates into health and the avoidance of risk change from early childhood to late adulthood, involving processes that are specific to phases of the life course; also, however, C influences health by way of continuous processes extending over many decades of life. Second, C may be more consequential in some social contexts than in others, and when accompanied by some constellations of personality characteristics than by others. That is, the mediational processes by which C translates into health and the avoidance of disease are likely moderated by timing, social context (including the C of others), and other aspects of the individual's personality. We consider methodological implications of the LCP Model.

  16. Aging and linear response in the Hébraud–Lequeux model for amorphous rheology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sollich, Peter; Olivier, Julien; Bresch, Didier

    2017-04-01

    We analyse the aging dynamics of the Hébraud–Lequeux model, a self-consistent stochastic model for the evolution of local stress in an amorphous material. We show that the model exhibits initial-condition dependent freezing: the stress diffusion constant decays with time as D∼ 1/{{t}2} during aging so that the cumulative amount of memory that can be erased, which is given by the time integral of D(t), is finite. Accordingly the shear stress relaxation function, which we determine in the long-time regime, only decays to a plateau and becomes progressively elastic as the system ages. The frequency-dependent shear modulus exhibits a corresponding overall decay of the dissipative part with system age, while the characteristic relaxation times scale linearly with age as expected.

  17. Using groundwater age distributions to estimate the effective parameters of Fickian and non-Fickian models of solute transport

    PubMed Central

    Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater age distributions are used to estimate the parameters of Fickian, and non-Fickian, effective models of solute transport. Based on the similarities between the transport and age equations, we develop a deconvolution based approach that describes transport between two monitoring wells. We show that the proposed method gives exact estimates of the travel time distribution between two wells when the domain is stationary and that the method still provides useful information on transport when the domain is non-stationary. The method is demonstrated using idealized uniform and layered 2-D aquifers. Homogeneous transport is determined exactly and non-Fickian transport in a layered aquifer was also approximated very well, even though this example problem is shown to be scale-dependent. This work introduces a method that addresses a significant limitation of tracer tests and non-Fickian transport modeling which is the difficulty in determining the effective parameters of the transport model. PMID:25821342

  18. Three layer functional model and energy exchange concept of aging process

    PubMed Central

    Mihajlovic, William

    2006-01-01

    Relying on a certain degree of abstraction, we can propose that no particular distinction exists between animate or living matter and inanimate matter. While focusing attention on some specifics, the dividing line between the two can be drawn. The most apparent distinction is in the level of structural and functional organization with the dissimilar streams of ‘energy flow’ between the observed entity and the surrounding environment. In essence, living matter is created from inanimate matter which is organized to contain internal intense energy processes and maintain lower intensity energy exchange processes with the environment. Taking internal and external energy processes into account, we contend in this paper that living matter can be referred to as matter of dissipative structure, with this structure assumed to be a common quality of all living creatures and living matter in general. Interruption of internal energy conversion processes and terminating the controlled energy exchange with the environment leads to degeneration of dissipative structure and reduction of the same to inanimate matter, (gas, liquid and/or solid inanimate substances), and ultimately what can be called ‘death.’ This concept of what we call dissipative nature can be extended from living organisms to social groups of animals, to mankind. An analogy based on the organization of matter provides a basis for a functional model of living entities. The models relies on the parallels among the three central structures of any cell (nucleus, cytoplasm and outer membrane) and the human body (central organs, body fluids along with the connective tissues, and external skin integument). This three-part structural organization may be observed almost universally in nature. It can be observed from the atomic structure to the planetary and intergalactic organizations. This similarity is corroborated by the membrane theory applied to living organisms. According to the energy nature of living matter

  19. A Comparison of the Age-Spectra from Data Assimilation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Zhu, Zheng-Xin; Pawson, Steven; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably well-isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the diabatic trajectory calculations, the age spectrum is too broad as a result of too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum determined using the kinematic trajectory calculation is less broad and lacks an age offset; both of these features are due to excessive vertical dispersion of parcels. The tropical and mid-latitude mean age difference between the diabatically and kinematically determined age-spectra is about one year, the former being older. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM's are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles, and these anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. These anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport is too diffusive.

  20. Dynamical network model for age-related health deficits and mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taneja, Swadhin; Mitnitski, Arnold B.; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew D.

    2016-02-01

    How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human aging. This quantitative frailty index (F ) is as good as chronological age in predicting mortality. In this paper, we use a dynamical network model of deficits to explore the effects of interactions between deficits, deficit damage and repair processes, and the connection between the F and mortality. With our model, we qualitatively reproduce Gompertz's law of increasing human mortality with age, the broadening of the F distribution with age, the characteristic nonlinear increase of the F with age, and the increased mortality of high-frailty individuals. No explicit time-dependence in damage or repair rates is needed in our model. Instead, implicit time-dependence arises through deficit interactions—so that the average deficit damage rates increase, and deficit repair rates decrease, with age. We use a simple mortality criterion, where mortality occurs when the most connected node is damaged.

  1. Comparative and alternative approaches and novel animal models for aging research

    PubMed Central

    Kristan, D. M.

    2008-01-01

    This special issue of AGE showcases powerful alternative or unconventional approaches to basic aging research, including the use of exceptionally long-lived animal model species and comparative methods from evolutionary biology. In this opening paper, we introduce several of these alternative aging research themes, including the comparative phylogenetic approach. This approach applies modern inferential methods for dissecting basic physiological and biochemical mechanisms correlated with phenotypic traits including longevity, slow aging, sustained somatic maintenance, and repair of molecular damage. Comparative methods can be used to assess the general relevance of specific aging mechanisms—including oxidative processes—to diverse animal species, as well as to assess their potential clinical relevance to humans and other mammals. We also introduce several other novel, underexploited approaches with particular relevance to biogerontology, including the use of model animal species or strains that retain natural genetic heterogeneity, studies of effects of infectious disease and parasites on aging and responses to caloric restriction, studies of reproductive aging, and naturally occurring sex differences in aging. We emphasize the importance of drawing inferences from aging phenomena in laboratory studies that can be applied to clinically relevant aging syndromes in long-lived, outbred animals, including humans. PMID:19424857

  2. Modelling T cell proliferation: Dynamics heterogeneity depending on cell differentiation, age, and genetic background

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Cell proliferation is the common characteristic of all biological systems. The immune system insures the maintenance of body integrity on the basis of a continuous production of diversified T lymphocytes in the thymus. This involves processes of proliferation, differentiation, selection, death and migration of lymphocytes to peripheral tissues, where proliferation also occurs upon antigen recognition. Quantification of cell proliferation dynamics requires specific experimental methods and mathematical modelling. Here, we assess the impact of genetics and aging on the immune system by investigating the dynamics of proliferation of T lymphocytes across their differentiation through thymus and spleen in mice. Our investigation is based on single-cell multicolour flow cytometry analysis revealing the active incorporation of a thymidine analogue during S phase after pulse-chase-pulse experiments in vivo, versus cell DNA content. A generic mathematical model of state transition simulates through Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) the evolution of single cell behaviour during various durations of labelling. It allows us to fit our data, to deduce proliferation rates and estimate cell cycle durations in sub-populations. Our model is simple and flexible and is validated with other durations of pulse/chase experiments. Our results reveal that T cell proliferation is highly heterogeneous but with a specific “signature” that depends upon genetic origins, is specific to cell differentiation stages in thymus and spleen and is altered with age. In conclusion, our model allows us to infer proliferation rates and cell cycle phase durations from complex experimental 5-ethynyl-2'-deoxyuridine (EdU) data, revealing T cell proliferation heterogeneity and specific signatures. PMID:28288157

  3. Modelling T cell proliferation: Dynamics heterogeneity depending on cell differentiation, age, and genetic background.

    PubMed

    Vibert, Julien; Thomas-Vaslin, Véronique

    2017-03-01

    Cell proliferation is the common characteristic of all biological systems. The immune system insures the maintenance of body integrity on the basis of a continuous production of diversified T lymphocytes in the thymus. This involves processes of proliferation, differentiation, selection, death and migration of lymphocytes to peripheral tissues, where proliferation also occurs upon antigen recognition. Quantification of cell proliferation dynamics requires specific experimental methods and mathematical modelling. Here, we assess the impact of genetics and aging on the immune system by investigating the dynamics of proliferation of T lymphocytes across their differentiation through thymus and spleen in mice. Our investigation is based on single-cell multicolour flow cytometry analysis revealing the active incorporation of a thymidine analogue during S phase after pulse-chase-pulse experiments in vivo, versus cell DNA content. A generic mathematical model of state transition simulates through Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) the evolution of single cell behaviour during various durations of labelling. It allows us to fit our data, to deduce proliferation rates and estimate cell cycle durations in sub-populations. Our model is simple and flexible and is validated with other durations of pulse/chase experiments. Our results reveal that T cell proliferation is highly heterogeneous but with a specific "signature" that depends upon genetic origins, is specific to cell differentiation stages in thymus and spleen and is altered with age. In conclusion, our model allows us to infer proliferation rates and cell cycle phase durations from complex experimental 5-ethynyl-2'-deoxyuridine (EdU) data, revealing T cell proliferation heterogeneity and specific signatures.

  4. Tile-based Level of Detail for the Parallel Age

    SciTech Connect

    Niski, K; Cohen, J D

    2007-08-15

    Today's PCs incorporate multiple CPUs and GPUs and are easily arranged in clusters for high-performance, interactive graphics. We present an approach based on hierarchical, screen-space tiles to parallelizing rendering with level of detail. Adapt tiles, render tiles, and machine tiles are associated with CPUs, GPUs, and PCs, respectively, to efficiently parallelize the workload with good resource utilization. Adaptive tile sizes provide load balancing while our level of detail system allows total and independent management of the load on CPUs and GPUs. We demonstrate our approach on parallel configurations consisting of both single PCs and a cluster of PCs.

  5. Modeling the Phenotypic Architecture of Autism Symptoms from Time of Diagnosis to Age 6

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Georgiades, Stelios; Boyle, Michael; Szatmari, Peter; Hanna, Steven; Duku, Eric; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Bryson, Susan; Fombonne, Eric; Volden, Joanne; Mirenda, Pat; Smith, Isabel; Roberts, Wendy; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Waddell, Charlotte; Bennett, Teresa; Elsabbagh, Mayada; Thompson, Ann

    2014-01-01

    The latent class structure of autism symptoms from the time of diagnosis to age 6 years was examined in a sample of 280 children with autism spectrum disorder. Factor mixture modeling was performed on 26 algorithm items from the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised at diagnosis (Time 1) and again at age 6 (Time 2). At Time 1, a…

  6. Aging Well and the Environment: Toward an Integrative Model and Research Agenda for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wahl, Hans-Werner; Iwarsson, Susanne; Oswald, Frank

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: The effects of the physical-spatial-technical environment on aging well have been overlooked both conceptually and empirically. In the spirit of M. Powell Lawton's seminal work on aging and environment, this article attempts to rectify this situation by suggesting a new model of how older people interact with their…

  7. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility.

    PubMed

    Melnik, Andrey V; Korobeinikov, Andrei

    2013-04-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  8. The Aging and Elderly Population with Mental Retardation: A Model Project in Rural Kentucky.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stone, James A.

    A model to serve rural (Kentucky) mentally retarded adults age 50 and over incorporates generic community resources such as residential, nutritional, medical, recreational, and transportation services with age appropriate activities and programs. The system is intended to provide an alternative to the life-long work setting of the workshop or work…

  9. Age Differences within Secular IQ Trends: An Individual Growth Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanaya, Tomoe; Ceci, Stephen J.; Scullin, Matthew H.

    2005-01-01

    Age differences within the yo-yo trend in IQ, caused when aging norms that produce inflated scores are replaced with new norms, were examined using longitudinal WISC, WISC-R and WISC-III records of students tested for special education services from 10 school districts. Descriptive and individual growth modeling analyses revealed that while the…

  10. Establishment of a model of acetaminophen-induced hepatotoxicity in different weekly-aged ICR mice.

    PubMed

    Taguchi, K; Tokuno, M; Yamasaki, K; Kadowaki, D; Seo, H; Otagiri, M

    2015-10-01

    Acetaminophen (APAP), a widely used analgesic and antipyretic drug, has the potential to cause lethal hepatotoxicity. Mice are widely used for developing murine models of APAP-induced hepatotoxicity, and many researchers have used these models for APAP-related studies including the fields of biology, pharmacology and toxicology. Although drug-induced hepatotoxicity is dependent on a number of factors (species, gender and age), very few studies have investigated the effect of aging on APAP hepatotoxicity. In this study, we evaluated the effect of age on APAP-induced hepatotoxicity in different weekly-aged mice to establish a model of APAP-induced hepatotoxicity that is an accurate reflection of general experimental conditions. Male ICR mice 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 weeks old were given APAP intraperitoneally, and mortality, hepatic damage and the plasma concentration of APAP metabolites were evaluated. It was found that younger male ICR mice were relatively resistant to hepatotoxicity induced by intraperitoneal APAP administration. In addition, the APAP-glucuronide concentration in plasma remained essentially the same among the differently-aged mice, while APAP-sulfate levels were dramatically decreased in an age-dependent manner. Thus, it is recommended that mice of the same ages be used in studies related to APAP-induced hepatotoxixity. These results provide evidence in support of not only the age-related changes in susceptibility to APAP-derived hepatotoxicity in mice but also in developing mouse models for APAP-related studies.

  11. A Diffusion Model Analysis of the Effects of Aging on Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratcliff, Roger; Thapar, Anjali; McKoon, Gail

    2004-01-01

    The effects of aging on response time were examined in a recognition memory experiment with young, college age subjects and older, 60-75 year old subjects. The older subjects were slower than the young subjects but almost as accurate. Ratcliff's (1978) diffusion model was fit to the data and it provided a good account of response times, their…

  12. Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk Final Report for Cooperative Agreement. This report describes and demonstrates techniques necessary to extrapolate and incorporate in vitro derived metabolic rate constants in PBPK models. It also includes two case study examples designed to demonstrate the applicability of such data for health risk assessment and addresses the quantification, extrapolation and interpretation of advanced biochemical information on human interindividual variability of chemical metabolism for risk assessment application. It comprises five chapters; topics and results covered in the first four chapters have been published in the peer reviewed scientific literature. Topics covered include: Data Quality ObjectivesExperimental FrameworkRequired DataTwo example case studies that develop and incorporate in vitro metabolic rate constants in PBPK models designed to quantify human interindividual variability to better direct the choice of uncertainty factors for health risk assessment. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for risk assors to use when quantifying, extrapolating, and interpretating advanced biochemical information about human interindividual variability of chemical metabolism.

  13. Degeneration of the Y chromosome in evolutionary aging models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo, M. P.; Onody, R. N.

    2005-06-01

    The Y chromosomes are genetically degenerated and do not recombine with their matching partners X. Recombination of XX pairs is pointed out as the key factor for the Y chromosome degeneration. However, there is an additional evolutionary force driving sex-chromosomes evolution. Here we show this mechanism by means of two different evolutionary models, in which sex chromosomes with non-recombining XX and XY pairs of chromosomes is considered. Our results show three curious effects. First, we observed that even when both XX and XY pairs of chromosomes do not recombine, the Y chromosomes still degenerate. Second, the accumulation of mutations on Y chromosomes followed a completely different pattern then those accumulated on X chromosomes. And third, the models may differ with respect to sexual proportion. These findings suggest that a more primeval mechanism rules the evolution of Y chromosomes due exclusively to the sex-chromosomes asymmetry itself, i.e., the fact that Y chromosomes never experience female bodies. Over aeons, natural selection favored X chromosomes spontaneously, even if at the very beginning of evolution, both XX and XY pairs of chromosomes did not recombine.

  14. Sensor-based interior modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Herbert, M.; Hoffman, R.; Johnson, A.; Osborn, J.

    1995-02-01

    Robots and remote systems will play crucial roles in future decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of nuclear facilities. Many of these facilities, such as uranium enrichment plants, weapons assembly plants, research and production reactors, and fuel recycling facilities, are dormant; there is also an increasing number of commercial reactors whose useful lifetime is nearly over. To reduce worker exposure to radiation, occupational and other hazards associated with D&D tasks, robots will execute much of the work agenda. Traditional teleoperated systems rely on human understanding (based on information gathered by remote viewing cameras) of the work environment to safely control the remote equipment. However, removing the operator from the work site substantially reduces his efficiency and effectiveness. To approach the productivity of a human worker, tasks will be performed telerobotically, in which many aspects of task execution are delegated to robot controllers and other software. This paper describes a system that semi-automatically builds a virtual world for remote D&D operations by constructing 3-D models of a robot`s work environment. Planar and quadric surface representations of objects typically found in nuclear facilities are generated from laser rangefinder data with a minimum of human interaction. The surface representations are then incorporated into a task space model that can be viewed and analyzed by the operator, accessed by motion planning and robot safeguarding algorithms, and ultimately used by the operator to instruct the robot at a level much higher than teleoperation.

  15. Business model for sensor-based fall recognition systems.

    PubMed

    Fachinger, Uwe; Schöpke, Birte

    2014-01-01

    AAL systems require, in addition to sophisticated and reliable technology, adequate business models for their launch and sustainable establishment. This paper presents the basic features of alternative business models for a sensor-based fall recognition system which was developed within the context of the "Lower Saxony Research Network Design of Environments for Ageing" (GAL). The models were developed parallel to the R&D process with successive adaptation and concretization. An overview of the basic features (i.e. nine partial models) of the business model is given and the mutual exclusive alternatives for each partial model are presented. The partial models are interconnected and the combinations of compatible alternatives lead to consistent alternative business models. However, in the current state, only initial concepts of alternative business models can be deduced. The next step will be to gather additional information to work out more detailed models.

  16. Predicting water age distribution in the Pearl River Estuary using a three-dimensional model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yuheng; Lin, Binliang; Sun, Jian; Pan, Shunqi

    2014-11-01

    The age of water (AW) concept is applied to investigate the water exchange process in a large and density stratified estuary, namely the Pearl River Estuary. A three-dimensional AW model has been built based on an existing hydrodynamic and solute transport model. The model is used to determine the AW distributions inside the Pearl River Estuary under various hydrodynamic conditions. The predicted mean AW values during the dry and wet seasons are approximately 25 and 10 days, respectively. In general, lower AW values are observed in the upper layers near the water surface, while higher values are observed in the lower layers near the bed. The difference becomes more pronounced during the wet season when the river discharge is very large. The tidal influence is relatively small. The variation of tidal forcing impacts mainly on the AW fluctuation range, but it has limited impact on the tidally averaged AW value. Moreover, the AW vertical difference is enhanced during neap tides. A comparison between the predictions using barotropic and baroclinic models indicates that the density-induced circulation has a significant impact on the water exchange rate.

  17. Modeling old-age wealth with endogenous early-life outcomes: The case of Mexico

    PubMed Central

    DeGraff, Deborah S.; Wong, Rebeca

    2014-01-01

    This paper contributes to the literature on the life course and aging by examining the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being, using data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study. Empirical research in this area has been challenged by the potential endogeneity of the early-life outcomes of interest, an issue which most studies ignore or downplay. Our contribution takes two forms: (1) we examine in detail the potential importance of two key life-cycle outcomes, age at marriage (a measure of family formation) and years of educational attainment (a measure of human capital investment) for old-age wealth, and (2) we illustrate the empirical value of past context variables that could help model the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being. Our illustrative approach, matching macro-level historical policy and census variables to individual records to use as instruments in modeling the endogeneity of early-life behaviors, yields a statistically identified two-stage model of old-age wealth with minimum bias. We use simulations to show that the results for the model of wealth in old age are meaningfully different when comparing the approach that accounts for endogeneity with an approach that assumes exogeneity of early-life outcomes. Furthermore, our results suggest that in the Mexican case, models which ignore the potential endogeneity of early-life outcomes are likely to under-estimate the effects of such variables on old-age wealth. PMID:25170434

  18. A novel strategy for forensic age prediction by DNA methylation and support vector regression model

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Cheng; Qu, Hongzhu; Wang, Guangyu; Xie, Bingbing; Shi, Yi; Yang, Yaran; Zhao, Zhao; Hu, Lan; Fang, Xiangdong; Yan, Jiangwei; Feng, Lei

    2015-01-01

    High deviations resulting from prediction model, gender and population d