Geographical and Temporal Variations in Female Breast Cancer Mortality in the Municipalities of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

PubMed Central

Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Montaño-Remacha, Carmen; Mayoral-Cortés, José María

2016-01-01

The last published figures have shown geographical variations in mortality with respect to female breast cancer in European countries. However, national health policies need a dynamic image of the geographical variations within the country. The aim of this paper was to describe the spatial distribution of age-specific mortality rates from female breast cancer in the municipalities of Andalusia (southern Spain) and to analyze its evolution over time from 1981 to 2012. An ecological study was devised. Two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated. One of these was used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate for each municipality, together with its time trends, and the other was used to estimate the age-specific rate ratio compared with Spain as a whole. The results showed that 98% of the municipalities exhibited a decreasing or a flat mortality trend for all the age groups. In 2012, the geographical variability of the age-specific mortality rates was small, especially for population groups below 65. In addition, more than 96.6% of the municipalities showed an age-specific mortality rate similar to the corresponding rate for Spain, and there were no identified significant clusters. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of breast cancer outcomes in Andalusia. PMID:27879690

Sri Lankan FRAX model and country-specific intervention thresholds.

PubMed

Lekamwasam, Sarath

2013-01-01

There is a wide variation in fracture probabilities estimated by Asian FRAX models, although the outputs of South Asian models are concordant. Clinicians can choose either fixed or age-specific intervention thresholds when making treatment decisions in postmenopausal women. Cost-effectiveness of such approach, however, needs to be addressed. This study examined suitable fracture probability intervention thresholds (ITs) for Sri Lanka, based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model. Fracture probabilities were estimated using all Asian FRAX models for a postmenopausal woman of BMI 25 kg/m² and has no clinical risk factors apart from a fragility fracture, and they were compared. Age-specific ITs were estimated based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model using the method followed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group in the UK. Using the age-specific ITs as the reference standard, suitable fixed ITs were also estimated. Fracture probabilities estimated by different Asian FRAX models varied widely. Japanese and Taiwan models showed higher fracture probabilities while Chinese, Philippine, and Indonesian models gave lower fracture probabilities. Output of remaining FRAX models were generally similar. Age-specific ITs of major osteoporotic fracture probabilities (MOFP) based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model varied from 2.6 to 18% between 50 and 90 years. ITs of hip fracture probabilities (HFP) varied from 0.4 to 6.5% between 50 and 90 years. In finding fixed ITs, MOFP of 11% and HFP of 3.5% gave the lowest misclassification and highest agreement. Sri Lankan FRAX model behaves similar to other Asian FRAX models such as Indian, Singapore-Indian, Thai, and South Korean. Clinicians may use either the fixed or age-specific ITs in making therapeutic decisions in postmenopausal women. The economical aspects of such decisions, however, need to be considered.

Scoping the Impact of Changes in Population Age-Structure on the Future Burden of Foodborne Disease in The Netherlands, 2020–2060

PubMed Central

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H.

2013-01-01

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates. PMID:23851976

Scoping the impact of changes in population age-structure on the future burden of foodborne disease in the Netherlands, 2020-2060.

PubMed

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H

2013-07-11

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.

Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Julia L; Schleinitz, Mark D; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T

2008-03-05

Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and > or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (> or =15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

Decision-Model Estimation of the Age-Specific Disability Weight for Schistosomiasis Japonica: A Systematic Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, Julia L.; Schleinitz, Mark D.; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T.

2008-01-01

Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and ≥15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (≥15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control. PMID:18320018

Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

2012-11-30

Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

Central blood pressure in children and adolescents: non-invasive development and testing of novel transfer functions.

PubMed

Cai, T Y; Qasem, A; Ayer, J G; Butlin, M; O'Meagher, S; Melki, C; Marks, G B; Avolio, A; Celermajer, D S; Skilton, M R

2017-12-01

Central blood pressure can be estimated from peripheral pulses in adults using generalised transfer functions (TF). We sought to create and test age-specific non-invasively developed TFs in children, with comparison to a pre-existing adult TF. We studied healthy children from two sites at two time points, 8 and 14 years of age, split by site into development and validation groups. Radial and carotid pressure waveforms were obtained by applanation tonometry. Central systolic pressure was derived from carotid waveforms calibrated to brachial mean and diastolic pressures. Age-specific TFs created in the development groups (n=50) were tested in the validation groups aged 8 (n=137) and 14 years (n=85). At 8 years of age, the age-specific TF estimated 82, 99 and 100% of central systolic pressure values within 5, 10 and 15 mm Hg of their measured values, respectively. This TF overestimated central systolic pressure by 2.2 (s.d. 3.7) mm Hg, compared to being underestimated by 5.6 (s.d. 3.9) mm Hg with the adult TF. At 14 years of age, the age-specific TF estimated 60, 87 and 95% of values within 5, 10 and 15 mm Hg of their measured values, respectively. This TF underestimated central systolic pressure by 0.5 (s.d. 6.7) mm Hg, while the adult TF underestimated it by 6.8 (s.d. 6.0) mm Hg. In conclusion, age-specific TFs more accurately predict central systolic pressure measured at the carotid artery in children than an existing adult TF.

Estimating Gestational Age From Ultrasound Fetal Biometrics.

PubMed

Skupski, Daniel W; Owen, John; Kim, Sungduk; Fuchs, Karin M; Albert, Paul S; Grantz, Katherine L

2017-08-01

To compare the accuracy of a new formula with one developed in 1984 (and still in common use) and to develop and compare racial and ethnic-specific and racial and ethnic-neutral formulas. The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons was a prospective cohort study that recruited women in four self-reported racial-ethnic groups-non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and Asian-with singleton gestations from 12 U.S. centers (2009-2013). Women with a certain last menstrual period confirmed by first-trimester ultrasonogram had longitudinal fetal measurements by credentialed study ultrasonographers blinded to the gestational age at their five follow-up visits. Regression analyses were performed with linear mixed models to develop gestational age estimating formulas. Repeated cross-validation was used for validation. The estimation error was defined as the mean squared difference between the estimated and observed gestational age and was used to compare the formulas' accuracy. The new formula estimated the gestational age (±2 SD) within ±7 days from 14 to 20 weeks of gestation, ±10 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation, and ±17 days from 28 to 40 weeks of gestation. The new formula performed significantly better than a formula developed in 1984 with an estimation error of 10.4 compared with 11.2 days from 21 to 27 weeks of gestation and 17.0 compared with 19.8 days at 28-40 weeks of gestation, respectively. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas did not outperform the racial and ethnic-neutral formula. The NICHD gestational age estimation formula is associated with smaller errors than a well-established historical formula. Racial and ethnic-specific formulas are not superior to a racial-ethnic-neutral one.

The composite dynamic method as evidence for age-specific waterfowl mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, Kenneth P.; Anderson, David R.

1979-01-01

For the past 25 years estimation of mortality rates for waterfowl has been based almost entirely on the composite dynamic life table. We examined the specific assumptions for this method and derived a valid goodness of fit test. We performed this test on 45 data sets representing a cross section of banded sampled for various waterfowl species, geographic areas, banding periods, and age/sex classes. We found that: (1) the composite dynamic method was rejected (P <0.001) in 37 of the 45 data sets (in fact, 29 were rejected at P <0.00001) and (2) recovery and harvest rates are year-specific (a critical violation of the necessary assumptions). We conclude that the restrictive assumptions required for the composite dynamic method to produce valid estimates of mortality rates are not met in waterfowl data. Also we demonstrate that even when the required assumptions are met, the method produces very biased estimates of age-specific mortality rates. We believe the composite dynamic method should not be used in the analysis of waterfowl banding data. Furthermore, the composite dynamic method does not provide valid evidence for age-specific mortality rates in waterfowl.

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

1997-01-01

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Jump, Hop, or Skip: Modeling Practice Effects in Studies of Determinants of Cognitive Change in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Vivot, Alexandre; Power, Melinda C.; Glymour, M. Maria; Mayeda, Elizabeth R.; Benitez, Andreana; Spiro, Avron; Manly, Jennifer J.; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Dufouil, Carole; Gross, Alden L.

2016-01-01

Improvements in cognitive test scores upon repeated assessment due to practice effects (PEs) are well documented, but there is no empirical evidence on whether alternative specifications of PEs result in different estimated associations between exposure and rate of cognitive change. If alternative PE specifications produce different estimates of association between an exposure and rate of cognitive change, this would be a challenge for nearly all longitudinal research on determinants of cognitive aging. Using data from 3 cohort studies—the Three-City Study–Dijon (Dijon, France, 1999–2010), the Normative Aging Study (Greater Boston, Massachusetts, 1993–2007), and the Washington Heights-Inwood Community Aging Project (New York, New York, 1999–2012)—for 2 exposures (diabetes and depression) and 3 cognitive outcomes, we compared results from longitudinal models using alternative PE specifications: no PEs; use of an indicator for the first cognitive visit; number of prior testing occasions; and square root of the number of prior testing occasions. Alternative specifications led to large differences in the estimated rates of cognitive change but minimal differences in estimated associations of exposure with cognitive level or change. Based on model fit, using an indicator for the first visit was often (but not always) the preferred model. PE specification can lead to substantial differences in estimated rates of cognitive change, but in these diverse examples and study samples it did not substantively affect estimated associations of risk factors with change. PMID:26825924

Estimating age-specific reproductive numbers-A comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moser, Carlee B; White, Laura F

2016-01-01

Large outbreaks, such as those caused by influenza, put a strain on resources necessary for their control. In particular, children have been shown to play a key role in influenza transmission during recent outbreaks, and targeted interventions, such as school closures, could positively impact the course of emerging epidemics. As an outbreak is unfolding, it is important to be able to estimate reproductive numbers that incorporate this heterogeneity and to use surveillance data that is routinely collected to more effectively target interventions and obtain an accurate understanding of transmission dynamics. There are a growing number of methods that estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers with limited data that build on methods assuming a homogenously mixing population. In this article, we introduce a new approach that is flexible and improves on many aspects of existing methods. We apply this method to influenza data from two outbreaks, the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in South Africa and Japan, to estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers and compare it to three other methods that also use existing data from social mixing surveys to quantify contact rates among different age groups. In this exercise, all estimates of the reproductive numbers for children exceeded the critical threshold of one and in most cases exceeded those of adults. We introduce a flexible new method to estimate reproductive numbers that describe heterogeneity in the population.

[Age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items: mega-data from a Japanese Health Service Association].

PubMed

Suka, Machi; Yoshida, Katsumi; Kawai, Tadashi; Aoki, Yoshikazu; Yamane, Noriyuki; Yamauchi, Kuniaki

2005-07-01

To determine age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items in Japanese adults. Health examination data were accumulated from 24 different prefectural health service associations affiliated with the Japan Association of Health Service. Those who were non-smokers, drank less than 7 days/week, and had a body mass index of 18.5-24.9kg/m2 were sampled as a reference population (n = 737,538; 224,947 men and 512,591 women). After classified by age and sex, reference intervals for 10 health examination items (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, uric acid, AST, ALT, gamma-GT, and hemoglobin) were estimated using the parametric and nonparametric methods. In every item except for hemoglobin, men had higher reference intervals than women. Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and glucose showed an upward trend in values with increasing age. Hemoglobin showed a downward trend in values with increasing age. Triglyceride, ALT, and gamma-GT reached a peak in middle age. Overall, parametric estimates showed narrower reference intervals than non-parametric estimates. Reference intervals vary with age and sex. Age- and sex-specific reference intervals may contribute to better assessment of health examination data.

Acceleration of leukocytes' epigenetic age as an early tumor and sex-specific marker of breast and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Durso, Danielle Fernandes; Bacalini, Maria Giulia; Sala, Claudia; Pirazzini, Chiara; Marasco, Elena; Bonafé, Massimiliano; do Valle, Ítalo Faria; Gentilini, Davide; Castellani, Gastone; Faria, Ana Maria Caetano; Franceschi, Claudio; Garagnani, Paolo; Nardini, Christine

2017-04-04

Changes in blood epigenetic age have been associated with several pathological conditions and have recently been described to anticipate cancer development. In this work, we analyze a publicly available leukocytes methylation dataset to evaluate the relation between DNA methylation age and the prospective development of specific types of cancer. We calculated DNA methylation age acceleration using five state-of-the-art estimators (three multi-site: Horvath, Hannum, Weidner; and two CpG specific: ELOV2 and FHL2) in a cohort including 845 subjects from the EPIC-Italy project and we compared 424 samples that remained cancer-free over the approximately ten years of follow-up with 235 and 166 subjects who developed breast and colorectal cancer, respectively. We show that the epigenetic age estimated from blood DNA methylation data is statistically significantly associated to future breast and male colorectal cancer development. These results are corroborated by survival analysis that shows significant association between age acceleration and cancer incidence suggesting that the chance of developing age-related diseases may be predicted by circulating epigenetic markers, with a dependence upon tumor type, sex and age estimator. These are encouraging results towards the non-invasive and perspective usage of epigenetic biomarkers.

Gestational age estimation on United States livebirth certificates: a historical overview.

PubMed

Wier, Megan L; Pearl, Michelle; Kharrazi, Martin

2007-09-01

Gestational age on the birth certificate is the most common source of population-based gestational age data that informs public health policy and practice in the US. Last menstrual period is one of the oldest methods of gestational age estimation and has been on the US Standard Certificate of Live Birth since 1968. The 'clinical estimate of gestation', added to the standard certificate in 1989 to address missing or erroneous last menstrual period data, was replaced by the 'obstetric estimate of gestation' on the 2003 revision, which specifically precludes neonatal assessments. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these measures, potential research implications and challenges accompanying the transition to the obstetric estimate.

Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl

2014-01-01

We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-classmore » SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.« less

Telomeres shorten more slowly in slow-aging wild animals than in fast-aging ones.

PubMed

Dantzer, Ben; Fletcher, Quinn E

2015-11-01

Research on the physiological causes of senescence aim to identify common physiological mechanisms that explain age-related declines in fitness across taxonomic groups. Telomeres are repetitive nucleotide sequences found on the ends of eukaryotic chromosomes. Past research indicates that telomere attrition is strongly correlated with inter-specific rates of aging, though these studies cannot distinguish whether telomere attrition is a cause or consequence of the aging process. We extend previous research on this topic by incorporating recent studies to test the hypothesis that telomeres shorten more slowly with age in slow-aging animals than in fast-aging ones. We assembled all studies that have quantified cross-sectional (i.e. between-individual) telomere rates of change (TROC) over the lifespans of wild animals. This included 22 estimates reflecting absolute TROC (TROCabs, bp/yr, primarily measured using the terminal restriction fragment length method), and 10 estimates reflecting relative TROC (TROCrel, relative telomere length/yr, measured using qPCR), from five classes (Aves, Mammalia, Bivalvia, Reptilia, and Actinopterygii). In 14 bird species, we correlated between-individual (i.e. cross-sectional) TROCabs estimates with both maximum lifespan and a phylogenetically-corrected principle component axis (pcPC1) that reflected the slow-fast axis of life-history variation. Bird species characterized by faster life-histories and shorter maximum lifespans had faster TROCabs. In nine studies, both between-individual and within-individual TROC estimates were available (n=8 for TROCabs, n=1 for TROCrel). Within-individual TROC estimates were generally greater than between-individual TROC estimates, which is indicative of selective disappearance of individuals with shorter telomeres. However, the difference between within- and between-individual TROC estimates was only significant in two out of nine studies. The relationship between within-individual TROCabs and maximum lifespan did not differ from the relationship of between-individual TROCabs and maximum lifespan. Overall, our results provide additional support for the hypothesis that TROC is correlated with inter-specific rates of aging and complement the intra-specific research that also find relationships between telomere attrition and components of fitness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relaxed clocks and inferences of heterogeneous patterns of nucleotide substitution and divergence time estimates across whales and dolphins (Mammalia: Cetacea).

PubMed

Dornburg, Alex; Brandley, Matthew C; McGowen, Michael R; Near, Thomas J

2012-02-01

Various nucleotide substitution models have been developed to accommodate among lineage rate heterogeneity, thereby relaxing the assumptions of the strict molecular clock. Recently developed "uncorrelated relaxed clock" and "random local clock" (RLC) models allow decoupling of nucleotide substitution rates between descendant lineages and are thus predicted to perform better in the presence of lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. However, it is uncertain how these models perform in the presence of punctuated shifts in substitution rate, especially between closely related clades. Using cetaceans (whales and dolphins) as a case study, we test the performance of these two substitution models in estimating both molecular rates and divergence times in the presence of substantial lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. Our RLC analyses of whole mitochondrial genome alignments find evidence for up to ten clade-specific nucleotide substitution rate shifts in cetaceans. We provide evidence that in the uncorrelated relaxed clock framework, a punctuated shift in the rate of molecular evolution within a subclade results in posterior rate estimates that are either misled or intermediate between the disparate rate classes present in baleen and toothed whales. Using simulations, we demonstrate abrupt changes in rate isolated to one or a few lineages in the phylogeny can mislead rate and age estimation, even when the node of interest is calibrated. We further demonstrate how increasing prior age uncertainty can bias rate and age estimates, even while the 95% highest posterior density around age estimates decreases; in other words, increased precision for an inaccurate estimate. We interpret the use of external calibrations in divergence time studies in light of these results, suggesting that rate shifts at deep time scales may mislead inferences of absolute molecular rates and ages.

Modeling Fetal Weight for Gestational Age: A Comparison of a Flexible Multi-level Spline-based Model with Other Approaches

PubMed Central

Villandré, Luc; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Perez Trejo, Maria Esther; Abenhaim, Haim; Jacobsen, Geir; Platt, Robert W

2011-01-01

We present a model for longitudinal measures of fetal weight as a function of gestational age. We use a linear mixed model, with a Box-Cox transformation of fetal weight values, and restricted cubic splines, in order to flexibly but parsimoniously model median fetal weight. We systematically compare our model to other proposed approaches. All proposed methods are shown to yield similar median estimates, as evidenced by overlapping pointwise confidence bands, except after 40 completed weeks, where our method seems to produce estimates more consistent with observed data. Sex-based stratification affects the estimates of the random effects variance-covariance structure, without significantly changing sex-specific fitted median values. We illustrate the benefits of including sex-gestational age interaction terms in the model over stratification. The comparison leads to the conclusion that the selection of a model for fetal weight for gestational age can be based on the specific goals and configuration of a given study without affecting the precision or value of median estimates for most gestational ages of interest. PMID:21931571

Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

PubMed

Lemaitre, Magali; Carrat, Fabrice; Rey, Grégoire; Miller, Mark; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cécile

2012-01-01

The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2-1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

PubMed

2017-09-16

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimating increment-decrement life tables with multiple covariates from panel data: the case of active life expectancy.

PubMed

Land, K C; Guralnik, J M; Blazer, D G

1994-05-01

A fundamental limitation of current multistate life table methodology-evident in recent estimates of active life expectancy for the elderly-is the inability to estimate tables from data on small longitudinal panels in the presence of multiple covariates (such as sex, race, and socioeconomic status). This paper presents an approach to such an estimation based on an isomorphism between the structure of the stochastic model underlying a conventional specification of the increment-decrement life table and that of Markov panel regression models for simple state spaces. We argue that Markov panel regression procedures can be used to provide smoothed or graduated group-specific estimates of transition probabilities that are more stable across short age intervals than those computed directly from sample data. We then join these estimates with increment-decrement life table methods to compute group-specific total, active, and dependent life expectancy estimates. To illustrate the methods, we describe an empirical application to the estimation of such life expectancies specific to sex, race, and education (years of school completed) for a longitudinal panel of elderly persons. We find that education extends both total life expectancy and active life expectancy. Education thus may serve as a powerful social protective mechanism delaying the onset of health problems at older ages.

Combining facial dynamics with appearance for age estimation.

PubMed

Dibeklioglu, Hamdi; Alnajar, Fares; Ali Salah, Albert; Gevers, Theo

2015-06-01

Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We propose a method to extract and use dynamic features for age estimation, using a person's smile. Our approach is tested on a large, gender-balanced database with 400 subjects, with an age range between 8 and 76. In addition, we introduce a new database on posed disgust expressions with 324 subjects in the same age range, and evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach when used with another expression. State-of-the-art appearance-based age estimation methods from the literature are implemented as baseline. We demonstrate that for each of these methods, the addition of the proposed dynamic features results in statistically significant improvement. We further propose a novel hierarchical age estimation architecture based on adaptive age grouping. We test our approach extensively, including an exploration of spontaneous versus posed smile dynamics, and gender-specific age estimation. We show that using spontaneity information reduces the mean absolute error by up to 21%, advancing the state of the art for facial age estimation.

Demand for Colonoscopy in Colorectal Cancer Screening Using a Quantitative Fecal Immunochemical Test and Age/Sex-Specific Thresholds for Test Positivity.

PubMed

Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Hsu, Chen-Yang; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Young, Graeme P; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Lee, Yi-Chia; Chiu, Han-Mo; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2018-06-01

Background: Despite age and sex differences in fecal hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentrations, most fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programs use population-average cut-points for test positivity. The impact of age/sex-specific threshold on FIT accuracy and colonoscopy demand for colorectal cancer screening are unknown. Methods: Using data from 723,113 participants enrolled in a Taiwanese population-based colorectal cancer screening with single FIT between 2004 and 2009, sensitivity and specificity were estimated for various f-Hb thresholds for test positivity. This included estimates based on a "universal" threshold, receiver-operating-characteristic curve-derived threshold, targeted sensitivity, targeted false-positive rate, and a colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted method integrating colonoscopy workload with and without age/sex adjustments. Results: Optimal age/sex-specific thresholds were found to be equal to or lower than the universal 20 μg Hb/g threshold. For older males, a higher threshold (24 μg Hb/g) was identified using a 5% false-positive rate. Importantly, a nonlinear relationship was observed between sensitivity and colonoscopy workload with workload rising disproportionately to sensitivity at 16 μg Hb/g. At this "colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted" threshold, the test positivity (colonoscopy workload) was 4.67% and sensitivity was 79.5%, compared with a lower 4.0% workload and a lower 78.7% sensitivity using 20 μg Hb/g. When constrained on capacity, age/sex-adjusted estimates were generally lower. However, optimizing age/-sex-adjusted thresholds increased colonoscopy demand across models by 17% or greater compared with a universal threshold. Conclusions: Age/sex-specific thresholds improve FIT accuracy with modest increases in colonoscopy demand. Impact: Colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted and age/sex-specific f-Hb thresholds may be useful in optimizing individual screening programs based on detection accuracy, population characteristics, and clinical capacity. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(6); 704-9. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Age estimation using cortical surface pattern combining thickness with curvatures

PubMed Central

Wang, Jieqiong; Li, Wenjing; Miao, Wen; Dai, Dai; Hua, Jing; He, Huiguang

2014-01-01

Brain development and healthy aging have been proved to follow a specific pattern, which, in turn, can be applied to help doctors diagnose mental diseases. In this paper, we design a cortical surface pattern (CSP) combining the cortical thickness with curvatures, which constructs an accurate human age estimation model with relevance vector regression. We test our model with two public databases. One is the IXI database (360 healthy subjects aging from 20 to 82 years old were selected), and the other is the INDI database (303 subjects aging from 7 to 22 years old were selected). The results show that our model can achieve as small as 4.57 years deviation in the IXI database and 1.38 years deviation in the INDI database. Furthermore, we employ this surface pattern to age groups classification, and get a remarkably high accuracy (97.77%) and a significantly high sensitivity/specificity (97.30%/98.10%). These results suggest that our designed CSP combining thickness with curvatures is stable and sensitive to brain development, and it is much more powerful than voxel-based morphometry used in previous methods for age estimation. PMID:24395657

Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere's Stratagem.

PubMed

Attiguppe, Prabhakar Ramasetty; Yavagal, Chandrashekar; Maganti, Rekhamani; Mythri, P

2016-01-01

Age is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of a person, especially in children. Age estimation plays an important part in treatment planning, forensic dentistry, legal issues, and paleodemographic research. The present study was an attempt to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population by using Cameriere's India specific formula. This was a retrospective observational study to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population. A total of 150 panoramic radiographs of patients aged between 6 and 15 years, including both sexes, were selected. Age was calculated by measuring open apices of seven right or left mandibular teeth using Adobe Photoshop software. Statistical analysis was performed to derive a regression equation for estimation of age, which showed that, of the variables X 1 , X 2 , X 3 , X 4 , X 5 , X 6 , X 7 , s, N 0 , the variables N 0 and X 4 were statistically noteworthy. Hence, these two variables were used to derive the linear regression formula: Age = 10.522 + 0.712(N 0 ) - 5.040(X 4 ). The model was found to be statistically significant, F(2, 147) = 207.96, p < 0.001, and accounted for approximately 74% of the variance of age (R 2 = 0.739, adjusted R 2 = 0.735). Cameriere's method can be used for age assessment in children for forensic as well as legal contexts and based on these variables a reliable age estimation equation could be proposed specifically for Davangere population. Attiguppe PR, Yavagal C, Maganti R, Mythri P. Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere's Stratagem. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2016;9(4):330-334.

Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere’s Stratagem

PubMed Central

Attiguppe, Prabhakar Ramasetty; Yavagal, Chandrashekar; Mythri, P

2016-01-01

Aim Age is one of the essential factors in establishing the identity of a person, especially in children. Age estimation plays an important part in treatment planning, forensic dentistry, legal issues, and paleodemographic research. The present study was an attempt to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population by using Cameriere’s India specific formula. Materials and methods This was a retrospective observational study to estimate the chronological age in children of Davangere population. A total of 150 panoramic radiographs of patients aged between 6 and 15 years, including both sexes, were selected. Age was calculated by measuring open apices of seven right or left mandibular teeth using Adobe Photoshop software. Results Statistical analysis was performed to derive a regression equation for estimation of age, which showed that, of the variables X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6, X7, s, N0, the variables N0 and X4 were statistically noteworthy. Hence, these two variables were used to derive the linear regression formula: Age = 10.522 + 0.712(N0) - 5.040(X4). The model was found to be statistically significant, F(2, 147) = 207.96, p < 0.001, and accounted for approximately 74% of the variance of age (R2 = 0.739, adjusted R2 = 0.735). Conclusion Cameriere’s method can be used for age assessment in children for forensic as well as legal contexts and based on these variables a reliable age estimation equation could be proposed specifically for Davangere population. How to cite this article Attiguppe PR, Yavagal C, Maganti R, Mythri P. Age Assessment in Children: A Novel Cameriere’s Stratagem. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2016;9(4):330-334. PMID:28127165

Third molar maturity index by measurements of open apices in a Libyan sample of living subjects.

PubMed

Dardouri, Ashref Ali Khalifa; Cameriere, Roberto; De Luca, Stefano; Vanin, Stefano

2016-10-01

In most countries, forensic age estimation in living subjects has become increasingly important in the last few years. In addition, as the age of legal majority ranges from 14 to 18 in many countries, and in Libya it is 18 years, radiographic assessment of the degree of third molar development is essential for forensic age estimation of adolescents and young adults. The aim of this paper is to assess the accuracy of the cut-off value of 0.08, by measurements of third molar index (I 3M ), in determining if a subject is adult or not in Libyan population. Digital panoramic radiographs of 307 healthy subjects (163 girls, 144 boys), aged between 14 and 22, were analysed. The I 3M, the age and the sex of the subjects were used as predictive variable for age estimation. Using a cut-off of 0.08, the sensitivity of the test for boys was 90.9% and the specificity 100%. The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 95.1% (95% CI: 91.5-98.7%). The sensitivity for girls was 90.6% and the specificity 100%. The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 94.5% (95% CI: 90.9-98.1%). Estimated post-test probability in boys and girls was 100%. Further analyses, performed using a cut-off of 0.09, do not affect the specificity (100%) while they improve the sensitivity for both boys and girls. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

2014-01-01

The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

Age of Sexual Debut and Physical Dating Violence Victimization: Sex Differences among US High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ihongbe, Timothy O.; Cha, Susan; Masho, Saba W.

2017-01-01

Background: Research has shown that early age of sexual debut is associated with physical dating violence (PDV), but sex-specific associations are sparse. We estimated the prevalence of PDV victimization in high school students who have initiated sexual intercourse and examined sex-specific association between age of sexual debut and PDV…

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites(.).

PubMed

Lottering, Nicolene; MacGregor, Donna M; Alston, Clair L; Watson, Debbie; Gregory, Laura S

2016-01-01

Contemporary, population-specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two- to four-tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum-likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Assessment of Demirjian's 8-teeth technique of age estimation and Indian-specific formulas in an East Indian population: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Rath, Hemamalini; Rath, Rachna; Mahapatra, Sandeep; Debta, Tribikram

2017-01-01

The age of an individual can be assessed by a plethora of widely available tooth-based techniques, among which radiological methods prevail. The Demirjian's technique of age assessment based on tooth development stages has been extensively investigated in different populations of the world. The present study is to assess the applicability of Demirjian's modified 8-teeth technique in age estimation of population of East India (Odisha), utilizing Acharya's Indian-specific cubic functions. One hundred and six pretreatment orthodontic radiographs of patients in an age group of 7-23 years with representation from both genders were assessed for eight left mandibular teeth and scored as per the Demirjian's 9-stage criteria for teeth development stages. Age was calculated on the basis of Acharya's Indian formula. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the estimated and actual age. All data were analyzed using SPSS 20.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA) and MS Excel Package. The results revealed that the mean absolute error (MAE) in age estimation of the entire sample was 1.3 years with 50% of the cases having an error rate within ± 1 year. The MAE in males and females (7-16 years) was 1.8 and 1.5, respectively. Likewise, the MAE in males and females (16.1-23 years) was 1.1 and 1.3, respectively. The low error rate in estimating age justifies the application of this modified technique and Acharya's Indian formulas in the present East Indian population.

Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

PubMed

Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

2015-01-01

Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related to rising levels of diabetes between 1990 and 2008.

Calculating summary statistics for population chemical biomonitoring in women of childbearing age with adjustment for age-specific natality.

PubMed

Axelrad, Daniel A; Cohen, Jonathan

2011-01-01

The effects of chemical exposures during pregnancy on children's health have been an increasing focus of environmental health research in recent years, leading to greater interest in biomonitoring of chemicals in women of childbearing age in the general population. Measurements of mercury in blood from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are frequently reported for "women of childbearing age," defined to be of ages 16-49 years. The intent is to represent prenatal chemical exposure, but blood mercury levels increase with age. Furthermore, women of different ages have different probabilities of giving birth. We evaluated options to address potential bias in biomonitoring summary statistics for women of childbearing age by accounting for age-specific probabilities of giving birth. We calculated median and 95th percentile levels of mercury, PCBs, and cotinine using these approaches: option 1: women aged 16-49 years without natality adjustment; option 2: women aged 16-39 years without natality adjustment; option 3: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age; option 4: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age and race/ethnicity. Among the three chemicals examined, the choice of option has the greatest impact on estimated levels of serum PCBs, which are strongly associated with age. Serum cotinine levels among Black non-Hispanic women of childbearing age are understated when age-specific natality is not considered. For characterizing in utero exposures, adjustment using age-specific natality provides a substantial improvement in estimation of biomonitoring summary statistics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CREATING A DECISION CONTEXT FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND CONSISTENT APPLICATION OF INHALATION DOSIMETRY MODELS IN CHILDREN'S RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of risks to children from exposure to airborne pollutants is often complicated by the lack of reliable epidemiological data specific to this age group. As a result, risks are generally estimated from extrapolations based on data obtained in other human age groups (e.g....

Generality and specificity in cognitive aging: a volumetric brain analysis.

PubMed

Staff, Roger T; Murray, Alison D; Deary, Ian J; Whalley, Lawrence J

2006-05-01

To investigate whether, in old age, brain volume differences are associated with age-related change in general mental ability and/or specific cognitive abilities. The authors investigate the association between brain volumes and current cognitive function in a well-characterized sample of healthy old people (aged 79-80) whose intelligence was recorded at age 11. This allowed estimation of intellectual change over the life span. After accounting for childhood intelligence, associations were found between specific cognitive measures and brain volumes. An association was also found between volumes and the general intelligence factor g. After removing the influence of g from each of the specific cognitive measures, no remaining significant associations were found between brain volumes and the specific part of each test. Generalized cognitive aging is associated with brain volume differences, but there is no evidence in this sample that specific components of cognitive aging are associated with differences in brain volume.

Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Xing, Yan; Chang, George J; Hu, Chung-Yuan; Askew, Robert L; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Lee, Jeffrey E; Mansfield, Paul F; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N

2010-05-01

Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision making. Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (1988-2000). By using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific, 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year after diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology. Five-year CS estimates for patients with stage I disease remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III, and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender, and race decreased over time. Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and nontreatment related life decisions. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

PubMed

Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

2016-07-01

Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

PubMed

Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

2011-07-01

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

PubMed

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

Size at emergence improves accuracy of age estimates in forensically-useful beetle Creophilus maxillosus L. (Staphylinidae).

PubMed

Matuszewski, Szymon; Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna

2018-02-05

Insects colonizing human or animal cadavers may be used to estimate post-mortem interval (PMI) usually by aging larvae or pupae sampled on a crime scene. The accuracy of insect age estimates in a forensic context is reduced by large intraspecific variation in insect development time. Here we test the concept that insect size at emergence may be used to predict insect physiological age and accordingly to improve the accuracy of age estimates in forensic entomology. Using results of laboratory study on development of forensically-useful beetle Creophilus maxillosus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Staphylinidae) we demonstrate that its physiological age at emergence [i.e. thermal summation value (K) needed for emergence] fall with an increase of beetle size. In the validation study it was found that K estimated based on the adult insect size was significantly closer to the true K as compared to K from the general thermal summation model. Using beetle length at emergence as a predictor variable and male or female specific model regressing K against beetle length gave the most accurate predictions of age. These results demonstrate that size of C. maxillosus at emergence improves accuracy of age estimates in a forensic context.

Estimating Children's Soil/Dust Ingestion Rates through Retrospective Analyses of Blood Lead Biomonitoring from the Bunker Hill Superfund Site in Idaho.

PubMed

von Lindern, Ian; Spalinger, Susan; Stifelman, Marc L; Stanek, Lindsay Wichers; Bartrem, Casey

2016-09-01

Soil/dust ingestion rates are important variables in assessing children's health risks in contaminated environments. Current estimates are based largely on soil tracer methodology, which is limited by analytical uncertainty, small sample size, and short study duration. The objective was to estimate site-specific soil/dust ingestion rates through reevaluation of the lead absorption dose-response relationship using new bioavailability data from the Bunker Hill Mining and Metallurgical Complex Superfund Site (BHSS) in Idaho, USA. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in vitro bioavailability methodology was applied to archived BHSS soil and dust samples. Using age-specific biokinetic slope factors, we related bioavailable lead from these sources to children's blood lead levels (BLLs) monitored during cleanup from 1988 through 2002. Quantitative regression analyses and exposure assessment guidance were used to develop candidate soil/dust source partition scenarios estimating lead intake, allowing estimation of age-specific soil/dust ingestion rates. These ingestion rate and bioavailability estimates were simultaneously applied to the U.S. EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children to determine those combinations best approximating observed BLLs. Absolute soil and house dust bioavailability averaged 33% (SD ± 4%) and 28% (SD ± 6%), respectively. Estimated BHSS age-specific soil/dust ingestion rates are 86-94 mg/day for 6-month- to 2-year-old children and 51-67 mg/day for 2- to 9-year-old children. Soil/dust ingestion rate estimates for 1- to 9-year-old children at the BHSS are lower than those commonly used in human health risk assessment. A substantial component of children's exposure comes from sources beyond the immediate home environment. von Lindern I, Spalinger S, Stifelman ML, Stanek LW, Bartrem C. 2016. Estimating children's soil/dust ingestion rates through retrospective analyses of blood lead biomonitoring from the Bunker Hill Superfund Site in Idaho. Environ Health Perspect 124:1462-1470; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510144.

Patient- and cohort-specific dose and risk estimation for abdominopelvic CT: a study based on 100 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Samei, Ehsan

2012-03-01

The purpose of this work was twofold: (a) to estimate patient- and cohort-specific radiation dose and cancer risk index for abdominopelvic computer tomography (CT) scans; (b) to evaluate the effects of patient anatomical characteristics (size, age, and gender) and CT scanner model on dose and risk conversion coefficients. The study included 100 patient models (42 pediatric models, 58 adult models) and multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare). A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which DLP-normalized-effective dose (k factor) and DLP-normalized-risk index values (q factor) were derived. The k factor showed exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For a given gender, q factor showed exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The discrepancies in k and q factors across scanners were on average 8% and 15%, respectively. This study demonstrates the feasibility of estimating patient-specific organ dose and cohort-specific effective dose and risk index in abdominopelvic CT requiring only the knowledge of patient size, gender, and age.

Simplified estimation of age-specific reference intervals for skewed data.

PubMed

Wright, E M; Royston, P

1997-12-30

Age-specific reference intervals are commonly used in medical screening and clinical practice, where interest lies in the detection of extreme values. Many different statistical approaches have been published on this topic. The advantages of a parametric method are that they necessarily produce smooth centile curves, the entire density is estimated and an explicit formula is available for the centiles. The method proposed here is a simplified version of a recent approach proposed by Royston and Wright. Basic transformations of the data and multiple regression techniques are combined to model the mean, standard deviation and skewness. Using these simple tools, which are implemented in almost all statistical computer packages, age-specific reference intervals may be obtained. The scope of the method is illustrated by fitting models to several real data sets and assessing each model using goodness-of-fit techniques.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Calibrating Estimates of Species Divergence Times

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.

2012-01-01

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account. PMID:22334343

Little Relation of Adult Age with Cognition after Controlling General Influences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salthouse, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Both general (i.e., shared across different cognitive measures) and specific (i.e., unique to particular cognitive measures) influences can be postulated to contribute to the relations between adult age and measures of cognitive functioning. Estimates of general and specific influences on measures of memory, speed, reasoning, and spatial…

Scale of reference bias and the evolution of health.

PubMed

Groot, Wim

2003-09-01

The analysis of subjective measures of well-being-such as self-reports by individuals about their health status is frequently hampered by the problem of scale of reference bias. A particular form of scale of reference bias is age norming. In this study we corrected for scale of reference bias by allowing for individual specific effects in an equation on subjective health. A random effects ordered response model was used to analyze scale of reference bias in self-reported health measures. The results indicate that if we do not control for unobservable individual specific effects, the response to a subjective health state measure suffers from age norming. Age norming can be controlled for by a random effects estimation technique using longitudinal data. Further, estimates are presented on the rate of depreciation of health. Finally, simulations of life expectancy indicate that the estimated model provides a reasonably good fit of the true life expectancy.

Physical therapy workforce shortage for aging and aged societies in Thailand.

PubMed

Kraiwong, Ratchanok; Vongsirinavarat, Mantana; Soonthorndhada, Kusol

2014-07-01

According to demographic changes, the size of the aging population has rapidly increased. Thailand has been facing the "aging society" since 2005 and the "aged society" has been projected to appear by the year 2025. Increased life expectancy is associated with health problems and risks, specifically chronic diseases and disability. Aging and aged societies and related specific conditions as stroke require the provision of services from health professionals. The shortage of the physical therapy workforce in Thailand has been reported. This study investigated the size of physical therapy workforce required for the approaching aging society of Thailand and estimated the number of needed physical therapists, specifically regarding stroke condition. Evidently, the issue of the physical therapy workforce to serve aging and aged societies in Thailand requires advocating and careful arranging.

Meta-analysis for deriving age- and gender-specific dose-response relationships between urinary cadmium concentration and {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulinuria under environmental exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamo, Masashi; Ono, Kyoko; Nakanishi, Junko

2006-05-15

A meta-analysis was conducted to derive age- and gender-specific dose-response relationships between urinary cadmium (Cd) concentration and {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulinuria ({beta}2MG-uria) under environmental exposure. {beta}2MG-uria was defined by a cutoff point of 1000 {mu}g {beta} {sub 2}-microglobulin/g creatinine. We proposed a model for describing the relationships among the interindividual variabilities in urinary Cd concentration, the ratio of Cd concentrations in the target organ and in urine, and the threshold Cd concentration in the target organ. The parameters in the model were determined so that good agreement might be achieved between the prevalence rates of {beta}2MG-uria reported in the literature andmore » those estimated by the model. In this analysis, only the data from the literature on populations environmentally exposed to Cd were used. Using the model and estimated parameters, the prevalence rate of {beta}2MG-uria can be estimated for an age- and gender-specific subpopulation for which the distribution of urinary Cd concentrations is known. The maximum permissible level of urinary Cd concentration was defined as the maximum geometric mean of the urinary Cd concentration in an age- and gender-specific subpopulation that would not result in a statistically significant increase in the prevalence rate of {beta}2MG-uria. This was estimated to be approximately 3 {mu}g/g creatinine for a population in a small geographical area and approximately 2 {mu}g/g creatinine for a nationwide population.« less

Co-morbidities associated with influenza-attributed mortality, 1994-2000, Canada.

PubMed

Schanzer, Dena L; Langley, Joanne M; Tam, Theresa W S

2008-08-26

The elderly and persons with specific chronic conditions are known to face elevated morbidity and mortality risks resulting from an influenza infection, and hence are routinely recommended for annual influenza vaccination. However, risk-specific mortality rates have not been established. We estimated age-specific influenza-attributable mortality rates stratified by the presence of chronic conditions and type of residence based on deaths of persons who were admitted to hospital with a respiratory complication captured in our national database. The majority of patients had chronic heart or respiratory conditions (80%) and were admitted from the community (80%). Influenza-attributable mortality rates clearly increase with age for all risk groups. Our influenza-specific estimates identified higher risk ratios for chronic lung or heart disease than have been suggested by other methods. These estimates identify groups most in need of improved vaccines and for whom the use of additional strategies, such as immunization of household contacts or caregivers should be considered.

The effects of beverage type on suicide rate in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury E

2011-12-01

Research evidence has suggested that the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverage may have a differential effect on suicide rate. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between the consumption of different beverage types and suicide rates in Russia. Age-standardized sex- and age-specific suicide rate for the period 1980-2005 and data on beverage-specific alcohol sale were obtained from the Russian State Statistical Committee. Time-series analytical modeling techniques (ARIMA) were used to examine the relationship between the sale of different alcoholic beverages and suicide rates. Vodka consumption as measured by sale was significantly associated with both male and female suicide rate. The consumption of beer and wine were not associated with suicide rate. The estimates of the age specific models for men were positive (except for the 75+ age group) and ranging from 0.069 (60-74 age group) to 0.123 (30-44 age group). The estimates for women were positive for the 15-29 age group (0.08), 30-44 age group (0.096) and 45-59 age group (0.057). These findings suggest that public health efforts should focus on both reducing overall consumption and changing beverage preference away from distilled spirits in order to reduce suicide rate in Russia.

Health-seeking behavior and transmission dynamics in the control of influenza infection among different age groups

PubMed Central

You, Shu-Han; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Liao, Chung-Min

2018-01-01

Background It has been found that health-seeking behavior has a certain impact on influenza infection. However, behaviors with/without risk perception on the control of influenza transmission among age groups have not been well quantified. Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess to what extent, under scenarios of with/without control and preventive/protective behaviors, the age-specific network-driven risk perception influences influenza infection. Materials and methods A behavior-influenza model was used to estimate the spread rate of age-specific risk perception in response to an influenza outbreak. A network-based information model was used to assess the effect of network-driven risk perception information transmission on influenza infection. A probabilistic risk model was used to assess the infection risk effect of risk perception with a health behavior change. Results The age-specific overlapping percentage was estimated to be 40%–43%, 55%–60%, and 19%–35% for child, teenage and adult, and elderly age groups, respectively. Individuals perceive the preventive behavior to improve risk perception information transmission among teenage and adult and elderly age groups, but not in the child age group. The population with perceived health behaviors could not effectively decrease the percentage of infection risk in the child age group, whereas for the elderly age group, the percentage of decrease in infection risk was more significant, with a 97.5th percentile estimate of 97%. Conclusion The present integrated behavior-infection model can help health authorities in communicating health messages for an intertwined belief network in which health-seeking behavior plays a key role in controlling influenza infection. PMID:29563814

Genetic and environmental influences on skeletal muscle phenotypes as a function of age and sex in large, multigenerational families of African heritage.

PubMed

Prior, Steven J; Roth, Stephen M; Wang, Xiaojing; Kammerer, Candace; Miljkovic-Gacic, Iva; Bunker, Clareann H; Wheeler, Victor W; Patrick, Alan L; Zmuda, Joseph M

2007-10-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the heritability of and environmental contributions to skeletal muscle phenotypes (appendicular lean mass and calf muscle cross-sectional area) in subjects of African descent and to determine whether heritability estimates are impacted by sex or age. Body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and computed tomography in 444 men and women aged 18 yr and older (mean: 43 yr) from eight large, multigenerational Afro-Caribbean families (family size range: 21-112). Using quantitative genetic methods, we estimated heritability and the association of anthropometric, lifestyle, and medical variables with skeletal muscle phenotypes. In the overall group, we estimated the heritability of lean mass and calf muscle cross-sectional area (h(2) = 0.18-0.23, P < 0.01) and contribution of environmental factors to these phenotypes (r(2) = 0.27-0.55, P < 0.05). In our age-specific analysis, the heritability of leg lean mass was lower in older vs. younger individuals (h(2) = 0.05 vs. 0.23, respectively, P = 0.1). Sex was a significant covariate in our models (P < 0.001), although sex-specific differences in heritability varied depending on the lean mass phenotype analyzed. High genetic correlations (rho(G) = 0.69-0.81; P < 0.01) between different lean mass measures suggest these traits share a large proportion of genetic components. Our results demonstrate the heritability of skeletal muscle traits in individuals of African heritage and that heritability may differ as a function of sex and age. As the loss of skeletal muscle mass is related to metabolic abnormalities, disability, and mortality in older individuals, further research is warranted to identify specific genetic loci that contribute to these traits in general and in a sex- and age-specific manner.

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies

PubMed Central

Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G.

2017-01-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire. PMID:28696282

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies.

PubMed

Diekmann, Yoan; Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Page, Abigail E; Chaudhary, Nikhil; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G

2017-08-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire.

Age-Specific Malaria Mortality Rates in the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya, 2003–2010

PubMed Central

Desai, Meghna; Buff, Ann M.; Khagayi, Sammy; Byass, Peter; Amek, Nyaguara; van Eijk, Annemieke; Slutsker, Laurence; Vulule, John; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Phillips-Howard, Penelope A.; Lindblade, Kimberly A.; Laserson, Kayla F.; Hamel, Mary J.

2014-01-01

Recent global malaria burden modeling efforts have produced significantly different estimates, particularly in adult malaria mortality. To measure malaria control progress, accurate malaria burden estimates across age groups are necessary. We determined age-specific malaria mortality rates in western Kenya to compare with recent global estimates. We collected data from 148,000 persons in a health and demographic surveillance system from 2003–2010. Standardized verbal autopsies were conducted for all deaths; probable cause of death was assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Annual malaria mortality rates per 1,000 person-years were generated by age group. Trends were analyzed using Poisson regression. From 2003–2010, in children <5 years the malaria mortality rate decreased from 13.2 to 3.7 per 1,000 person-years; the declines were greatest in the first three years of life. In children 5–14 years, the malaria mortality rate remained stable at 0.5 per 1,000 person-years. In persons ≥15 years, the malaria mortality rate decreased from 1.5 to 0.4 per 1,000 person-years. The malaria mortality rates in young children and persons aged ≥15 years decreased dramatically from 2003–2010 in western Kenya, but rates in older children have not declined. Sharp declines in some age groups likely reflect the national scale up of malaria control interventions and rapid expansion of HIV prevention services. These data highlight the importance of age-specific malaria mortality ascertainment and support current strategies to include all age groups in malaria control interventions. PMID:25180495

Estimating the Risk of Parvovirus B19 Infection in Blood Donors and Pregnant Women in Japan

PubMed Central

Nabae, Koji; Satoh, Hiroshi; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Tanaka-Taya, Keiko; Okabe, Nobuhiko; Oishi, Kazunori; Matsumoto, Kunichika; Hasegawa, Tomonori

2014-01-01

Background Seroepidemiological study of parvovirus B19 has not taken place for some 20 years in Japan. To estimate the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in Japan among blood donors and pregnant women in this century, a seroepidemiological survey and statistical modeling of the force of infection were conducted. Methodology/Principal Findings The time- and age-specific seroprevalence data were suggestive of strong age-dependency in the risk of infection. Employing a piecewise constant model, the highest forces of infection of 0.05 and 0.12 per year were observed among those aged 0–4 and 5–9 years, respectively, while estimates among older individuals were less than 0.01 per year. Analyzing the antigen detection data among blood donors, the age-specific proportion positive was highest among those aged 30–39 years, agreeing with the presence of dip in seroprevalence in this age-group. Among pregnant women, up to 107 fetal deaths and 21 hydrops fetalis were estimated to have occurred annually across Japan. Conclusions Seroepidemiological profiles of PVB19 infection in Japan was characterized with particular emphasis on the risk of infection in blood donors and the burden of infection among pregnant women. When a vaccine becomes available in the future, a similar seroepidemiological study is expected to play a key role in planning the appropriate immunization policy. PMID:24658180

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations.

PubMed

Mazur, D P

1976-02-01

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.

Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

2010-01-01

Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

Sensitivity and specificity of criteria for classifying body mass index in adolescents.

PubMed

Farias Júnior, José Cazuza de; Konrad, Lisandra Maria; Rabacow, Fabiana Maluf; Grup, Susane; Araújo, Valbério Candido

2009-02-01

To estimate the prevalence of overweight among adolescents using different body mass index (BMI) classification criteria, and to determine sensitivity and specificity values for these criteria. Weight, height, and tricipital and subscapular skinfolds in 934 adolescents (462 males and 472 females) aged 14-18 years (mean age 16.2; SD=1.0) of the city of Florianópolis, Southern Brazil, in 2001. Percent fat estimated based on skinfold measurements (> or =25% in males and > or =30% in females) was used as a gold-standard for determining specificity and sensitivity of BMI classification criteria among adolescents. The different cutoff points used for classifying BMI in general resulted in similar prevalence of overweight (p>0.05). Sensitivity of the evaluated criteria was high for males (85.4% to 91.7%) and low for females (33.8 to 52.8%). Specificity of all criteria was high for both sexes (83.6% to 98.8%). Estimates of prevalence of obesity among adolescents using different BMI classification criteria were similar and highly specific for both sexes, but sensitivity for females was low.

A comparison of foetal and infant mortality in the United States and Canada.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Liu, Shiliang; Joseph, K S; Kramer, Michael S

2009-04-01

Infant mortality rates are higher in the United States than in Canada. We explored this difference by comparing gestational age distributions and gestational age-specific mortality rates in the two countries. Stillbirth and infant mortality rates were compared for singleton births at >or=22 weeks and newborns weighing>or=500 g in the United States and Canada (1996-2000). Since menstrual-based gestational age appears to misclassify gestational duration and overestimate both preterm and postterm birth rates, and because a clinical estimate of gestation is the only available measure of gestational age in Canada, all comparisons were based on the clinical estimate. Data for California were excluded because they lacked a clinical estimate. Gestational age-specific comparisons were based on the foetuses-at-risk approach. The overall stillbirth rate in the United States (37.9 per 10,000 births) was similar to that in Canada (38.2 per 10,000 births), while the overall infant mortality rate was 23% (95% CI 19-26%) higher (50.8 vs 41.4 per 10,000 births, respectively). The gestational age distribution was left-shifted in the United States relative to Canada; consequently, preterm birth rates were 8.0 and 6.0%, respectively. Stillbirth and early neonatal mortality rates in the United States were lower at term gestation only. However, gestational age-specific late neonatal, post-neonatal and infant mortality rates were higher in the United States at virtually every gestation. The overall stillbirth rates (per 10,000 foetuses at risk) among Blacks and Whites in the United States, and in Canada were 59.6, 35.0 and 38.3, respectively, whereas the corresponding infant mortality rates were 85.6, 49.7 and 42.2, respectively. Differences in gestational age distributions and in gestational age-specific stillbirth and infant mortality in the United States and Canada underscore substantial differences in healthcare services, population health status and health policy between the two neighbouring countries.

Age-specific reproduction in female sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from south-central Alaska: Analysis of reproductive tracts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Lensink, Calvin J.

1993-01-01

We estimated age at sexual maturity and age-specific reproductive rates by examining carcasses and reproductive tracts from 177 female sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Carcasses were recovered from south-central Alaska, Primarily from western Prince William Sound, as a result of the T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989. We found 65% of our sample to be sexually mature. Sexual maturity was first attained at age 2. The proportion of sexually mature animals increased from 30% at age 2 to 100% at age 5. Annual reproductive rates increased from 22% at age 2 to 78% at age 5 and remained relatively stable (75-88%) through to age 15. the sex ratio (female:male) of 49 fetal sea otters was 18:37 and differed significantly from parity. Females younger than 8 tended to produce more female fetuses, while older mothers did not. Our estimates of the reproductive characteristics of female sea otters obtained by examination of reproductive tracts were similiar to those reported in the literature based on in situ observations of marked individuals.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Background: Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Aim: Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Materials and Methods: Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. Results: There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Conclusion: Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis. PMID:26005298

Per Capita Alcohol Consumption and Suicide Rates in the U.S., 1950-2002

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landberg, Jonas

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper was to estimate how suicide rates in the United States are affected by changes in per capita consumption during the postwar period. The analysis included Annual suicide rates and per capita alcohol consumption data (total and beverage specific) for the period 1950-2002. Gender- and age-specific models were estimated using the…

Applications of physiological bases of ageing to forensic sciences. Estimation of age-at-death.

PubMed

C Zapico, Sara; Ubelaker, Douglas H

2013-03-01

Age-at-death estimation is one of the main challenges in forensic sciences since it contributes to the identification of individuals. There are many anthropological techniques to estimate the age at death in children and adults. However, in adults this methodology is less accurate and requires population specific references. For that reason, new methodologies have been developed. Biochemical methods are based on the natural process of ageing, which induces different biochemical changes that lead to alterations in cells and tissues. In this review, we describe different attempts to estimate the age in adults based on these changes. Chemical approaches imply modifications in molecules or accumulation of some products. Molecular biology approaches analyze the modifications in DNA and chromosomes. Although the most accurate technique appears to be aspartic acid racemization, it is important to take into account the other techniques because the forensic context and the human remains available will determine the possibility to apply one or another methodology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

State-level estimates of childhood obesity prevalence in the United States corrected for report bias.

PubMed

Long, M W; Ward, Z J; Resch, S C; Cradock, A L; Wang, Y C; Giles, C M; Gortmaker, S L

2016-10-01

State-specific obesity prevalence data are critical to public health efforts to address the childhood obesity epidemic. However, few states administer objectively measured body mass index (BMI) surveillance programs. This study reports state-specific childhood obesity prevalence by age and sex correcting for parent-reported child height and weight bias. As part of the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES), we developed childhood obesity prevalence estimates for states for the period 2005-2010 using data from the 2010 US Census and American Community Survey (ACS), 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) (n=133 213), and 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) (n=9377; ages 2-17). Measured height and weight data from NHANES were used to correct parent-report bias in NSCH using a non-parametric statistical matching algorithm. Model estimates were validated against surveillance data from five states (AR, FL, MA, PA and TN) that conduct censuses of children across a range of grades. Parent-reported height and weight resulted in the largest overestimation of childhood obesity in males ages 2-5 years (NSCH: 42.36% vs NHANES: 11.44%). The CHOICES model estimates for this group (12.81%) and for all age and sex categories were not statistically different from NHANES. Our modeled obesity prevalence aligned closely with measured data from five validation states, with a 0.64 percentage point mean difference (range: 0.23-1.39) and a high correlation coefficient (r=0.96, P=0.009). Estimated state-specific childhood obesity prevalence ranged from 11.0 to 20.4%. Uncorrected estimates of childhood obesity prevalence from NSCH vary widely from measured national data, from a 278% overestimate among males aged 2-5 years to a 44% underestimate among females aged 14-17 years. This study demonstrates the validity of the CHOICES matching methods to correct the bias of parent-reported BMI data and highlights the need for public release of more recent data from the 2011 to 2012 NSCH.

Sudden cardiac death rates in an Australian population: a data linkage study.

PubMed

Feng, Jia-Li; Hickling, Siobhan; Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Semsarian, Christopher; Ingles, Jodie; Briffa, Tom G

2015-11-01

The aim of the present study was to develop criteria to identify sudden cardiac death (SCD) and estimate population rates of SCD using administrative mortality and hospital morbidity records in Western Australia. Four criteria were developed using place, death within 24 h, principal and secondary diagnoses, underlying and associated cause of death, and/or occurrence of a post mortem to identify SCD. Average crude, age-standardised and age-specific rates of SCD were estimated using population person-linked administrative data. In all, 9567 probable SCDs were identified between 1997 and 2010, with one-third aged ≥ 35 years having no prior admission for cardiovascular disease. SCD was more frequent in men (62.1%). The estimated average annual crude SCD rate for the period was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years with an average annual age-standardised rate of 37.8 per 100 000 person-years. Age-specific standardised rates were 1.1 per 100 000 person-years and 70.7 per 100 000 person-years in people aged 1-34 and ≥ 35 years, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was recorded as the underlying cause of death in approximately 80% of patients aged ≥ 35 years, followed by valvular heart disease and heart failure. IHD was the most common cause of death in those aged 1-34 years, followed by unspecified cardiomyopathy and dysrhythmias. Administrative morbidity and mortality data can be used to estimate rates of SCD and therefore provide a suitable methodology for monitoring SCD over time. The findings highlight the magnitude of SCD and its potential for public health prevention.

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

The 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City: age-specific timing, mortality, and transmission dynamics

PubMed Central

Yang, Wan; Petkova, Elisaveta; Shaman, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Background The 1918 influenza pandemic caused disproportionately high mortality among certain age groups. The mechanisms underlying these differences are not fully understood. Objectives To explore the dynamics of the 1918 pandemic and to identify potential age-specific transmission patterns. Methods We examined 1915–1923 daily mortality data in New York City (NYC) and estimated the outbreak duration and initial effective reproductive number (Re) for each 1-year age cohort. Results Four pandemic waves occurred from February 1918 to April 1920. The fractional mortality increase (i.e. ratio of excess mortality to baseline mortality) was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated (r = 0·94 and 0·86). With each wave, the pandemic appeared to spread with a comparable early growth rate but then attenuate with varying rates. For the entire population, Re estimates made assuming 2-day serial interval were 1·74 (1·27), 1·74 (1·43), 1·66 (1·25), and 1·86 (1·37), respectively, during the first week (first 3 weeks) of each wave. Using age-specific mortality, the average Re estimates over the first week of each wave were 1·62 (95% CI: 1·55–1·68), 1·68 (1·65–1·72), 1·67 (1·61–1·73), and 1·69 (1·63–1·74), respectively; Re was not significantly different either among age cohorts or between waves. Conclusions The pandemic generally caused higher mortality among young adults and might have spread mainly among school-aged children during the first wave. We propose mechanisms to explain the timing and transmission dynamics of the four NYC pandemic waves. PMID:24299150

Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

PubMed

Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

2015-12-01

A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

PubMed Central

Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

2015-01-01

Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

Development of a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation (DAE) and testing of this with a separate Validation Set (VS) in a southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

2016-10-01

Many countries have recently experienced a rapid increase in the demand for forensic age estimates of unaccompanied minors. Hong Kong is a major tourist and business center where there has been an increase in the number of people intercepted with false travel documents. An accurate estimation of age is only possible when a dataset for age estimation that has been derived from the corresponding ethnic population. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop and validate a Reference Data Set (RDS) for dental age estimation for southern Chinese. A total of 2306 subjects were selected from the patient archives of a large dental hospital and the chronological age for each subject was recorded. This age was assigned to each specific stage of dental development for each tooth to create a RDS. To validate this RDS, a further 484 subjects were randomly chosen from the patient archives and their dental age was assessed based on the scores from the RDS. Dental age was estimated using meta-analysis command corresponding to random effects statistical model. Chronological age (CA) and Dental Age (DA) were compared using the paired t-test. The overall difference between the chronological and dental age (CA-DA) was 0.05 years (2.6 weeks) for males and 0.03 years (1.6 weeks) for females. The paired t-test indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the chronological and dental age (p > 0.05). The validated southern Chinese reference dataset based on dental maturation accurately estimated the chronological age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data.

PubMed

Simons, Emily; Ferrari, Matthew; Fricks, John; Wannemuehler, Kathleen; Anand, Abhijeet; Burton, Anthony; Strebel, Peter

2012-06-09

In 2008 all WHO member states endorsed a target of 90% reduction in measles mortality by 2010 over 2000 levels. We developed a model to estimate progress made towards this goal. We constructed a state-space model with population and immunisation coverage estimates and reported surveillance data to estimate annual national measles cases, distributed across age classes. We estimated deaths by applying age-specific and country-specific case-fatality ratios to estimated cases in each age-country class. Estimated global measles mortality decreased 74% from 535,300 deaths (95% CI 347,200-976,400) in 2000 to 139,300 (71,200-447,800) in 2010. Measles mortality was reduced by more than three-quarters in all WHO regions except the WHO southeast Asia region. India accounted for 47% of estimated measles mortality in 2010, and the WHO African region accounted for 36%. Despite rapid progress in measles control from 2000 to 2007, delayed implementation of accelerated disease control in India and continued outbreaks in Africa stalled momentum towards the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal. Intensified control measures and renewed political and financial commitment are needed to achieve mortality reduction targets and lay the foundation for future global eradication of measles. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (PMS 5U66/IP000161). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in the association between countries' smoking prevalence and happiness ratings.

PubMed

Drehmer, J E

2018-05-02

To examine the cross-sectional relationship between measures of countries' happiness and countries' prevalence of tobacco smoking. Since smoking prevalence differs widely based on sex in some countries and is similar in other countries, it was examined if there was a sex difference in the relationship between smoking prevalence and country-specific happiness ratings. Ecological study design. Countries' age-standardized prevalence estimates of smoking any tobacco product among persons aged 15 years and older (%) for 2015 were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Observatory. Country-specific scores from the World Happiness Report 2016 Update Ranking of Happiness (2013-15) and the 2015 Gallup Positive Experience Index were matched and correlated to 2015 WHO estimates of tobacco smoking prevalence for males and females. The difference between male and female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates in each country was calculated by subtracting female prevalence from male prevalence and was then correlated to countries' World Happiness Report scores. The analyses did not control for potential confounders. The association between male age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores was inversely correlated [r(104) = -0.22, P = 0.03], whereas the association between female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores was positively correlated [r(104) = 0.48, P = 0.00]. An inverse correlation was found between the difference in male and female smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores [r(104) = -0.50, P = 0.00]. The association between countries' male age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and the Positive Experience Index scores was inversely correlated [r(99) = -0.37, P = 0.00], whereas the female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates in countries were not significantly associated with Positive Experience Index scores [r(99) = -0.03, P = 0.75]. There are distinct sex differences between the amounts of happiness measured in countries and male and female smoking rates. Greater inequality in age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates between males and females is associated with lower amounts of happiness as measured by the World Happiness Report. These findings can be applied to population-based strategies aimed at reducing national smoking rates in men and women. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association between major depression prevalence and sex becomes weaker with age.

PubMed

Patten, Scott B; Williams, Jeanne V A; Lavorato, Dina H; Wang, Jian Li; Bulloch, Andrew G M; Sajobi, Tolulope

2016-02-01

Women have a higher prevalence of major depressive episodes (MDE) than men, and the annual prevalence of MDE declines with age. Age by sex interactions may occur (a weakening of the sex effect with age), but are easily overlooked since individual studies lack statistical power to detect interactions. The objective of this study was to evaluate age by sex interactions in MDE prevalence. In Canada, a series of 10 national surveys conducted between 1996 and 2013 assessed MDE prevalence in respondents over the age of 14. Treating age as a continuous variable, binomial and linear regression was used to model age by sex interactions in each survey. To increase power, the survey-specific interaction coefficients were then pooled using meta-analytic methods. The estimated interaction terms were homogeneous. In the binomial regression model I (2) was 31.2 % and was not statistically significant (Q statistic = 13.1, df = 9, p = 0.159). The pooled estimate (-0.004) was significant (z = 3.13, p = 0.002), indicating that the effect of sex became weaker with increasing age. This resulted in near disappearance of the sex difference in the 75+ age group. This finding was also supported by an examination of age- and sex-specific estimates pooled across the surveys. The association of MDE prevalence with sex becomes weaker with age. The interaction may reflect biological effect modification. Investigators should test for, and consider inclusion of age by sex interactions in epidemiological analyses of MDE prevalence.

The Future Prevalence of Sarcopenia in Europe: A Claim for Public Health Action.

PubMed

Ethgen, O; Beaudart, C; Buckinx, F; Bruyère, O; Reginster, J Y

2017-03-01

Sarcopenia is a major public health issue. To convince health policy makers of the emergency to invest in the sarcopenia field, it is of critical importance to produce reliable figures of the expected burden of sarcopenia in the coming years. Age- and gender-specific population projections were retrieved until 2045 from the Eurostat online database (28 European countries). Age- and gender-specific prevalences of sarcopenia were interpolated from a study that compared prevalence estimates according to the different diagnostic cutoffs of the EWGSOP proposed definition. The reported prevalence estimates were interpolated between 65 and 100 years. Interpolated age- and gender-specific estimates of sarcopenia prevalence were then applied to population projections until 2045. Using the definition providing the lowest prevalence estimates, the number of individuals with sarcopenia would rise in Europe from 10,869,527 in 2016 to 18,735,173 in 2045 (a 72.4% increase). This corresponds to an overall prevalence of sarcopenia in the elderly rising from 11.1% in 2016 to 12.9% in 2045. With the definition providing the highest prevalence estimates, the number of individuals with sarcopenia would rise from 19,740,527 in 2016 to 32,338,990 in 2045 (a 63.8% increase), corresponding to overall prevalence rates in the elderly of 20.2% and 22.3% for 2016 and 2045, respectively. We showed that the number of sarcopenic patients will dramatically increase in the next 30 years, making consequences of muscle wasting a major public health issue.

Estimating Children’s Soil/Dust Ingestion Rates through Retrospective Analyses of Blood Lead Biomonitoring from the Bunker Hill Superfund Site in Idaho

PubMed Central

von Lindern, Ian; Spalinger, Susan; Stifelman, Marc L.; Stanek, Lindsay Wichers; Bartrem, Casey

2016-01-01

Background: Soil/dust ingestion rates are important variables in assessing children’s health risks in contaminated environments. Current estimates are based largely on soil tracer methodology, which is limited by analytical uncertainty, small sample size, and short study duration. Objectives: The objective was to estimate site-specific soil/dust ingestion rates through reevaluation of the lead absorption dose–response relationship using new bioavailability data from the Bunker Hill Mining and Metallurgical Complex Superfund Site (BHSS) in Idaho, USA. Methods: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in vitro bioavailability methodology was applied to archived BHSS soil and dust samples. Using age-specific biokinetic slope factors, we related bioavailable lead from these sources to children’s blood lead levels (BLLs) monitored during cleanup from 1988 through 2002. Quantitative regression analyses and exposure assessment guidance were used to develop candidate soil/dust source partition scenarios estimating lead intake, allowing estimation of age-specific soil/dust ingestion rates. These ingestion rate and bioavailability estimates were simultaneously applied to the U.S. EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children to determine those combinations best approximating observed BLLs. Results: Absolute soil and house dust bioavailability averaged 33% (SD ± 4%) and 28% (SD ± 6%), respectively. Estimated BHSS age-specific soil/dust ingestion rates are 86–94 mg/day for 6-month- to 2-year-old children and 51–67 mg/day for 2- to 9-year-old children. Conclusions: Soil/dust ingestion rate estimates for 1- to 9-year-old children at the BHSS are lower than those commonly used in human health risk assessment. A substantial component of children’s exposure comes from sources beyond the immediate home environment. Citation: von Lindern I, Spalinger S, Stifelman ML, Stanek LW, Bartrem C. 2016. Estimating children’s soil/dust ingestion rates through retrospective analyses of blood lead biomonitoring from the Bunker Hill Superfund Site in Idaho. Environ Health Perspect 124:1462–1470; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510144 PMID:26745545

Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060

PubMed Central

Krijthe, Bouwe P.; Kunst, Anton; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Lip, Gregory Y.H.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Stricker, Bruno H.; Heeringa, Jan

2013-01-01

Aims Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060. Methods and results Age- and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55–59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4–3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7–4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5–30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1–19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age- and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5–12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6–23.7 million) if the age- and sex-specific prevalence remains stable. Conclusion We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications. PMID:23900699

Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060.

PubMed

Krijthe, Bouwe P; Kunst, Anton; Benjamin, Emelia J; Lip, Gregory Y H; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Stricker, Bruno H; Heeringa, Jan

2013-09-01

Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060. Age- and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55-59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7-4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1-19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age- and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5-12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6-23.7 million) if the age- and sex-specific prevalence remains stable. We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.

Relationship between age, renal function and bone mineral density in the US population.

PubMed

Klawansky, Sidney; Komaroff, Eugene; Cavanaugh, Paul F; Mitchell, David Y; Gordon, Matthew J; Connelly, Janet E; Ross, Susan D

2003-07-01

Bisphosphonate drugs for treating osteoporosis are excreted by the kidney. However, many of the major trials on efficacy and safety of the bisphophonates for treating osteoporosis excluded patients with significant renal compromise. Since both osteoporosis and renal insufficiency become more prevalent with age, it seems prudent for physicians to be aware of the prevalence of renal dysfunction in patients with osteoporosis who are candidates for treatment with bisphosphonates. Data on 13,831 men and women aged 20+ from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994 (NHANES III) were used to study the occurrence of compromise in renal clearance function in men and women with osteopenia and osteoporosis. To estimate creatinine clearance (CCr), a measure of renal function, serum creatinine (sCr), weight and age were inserted into the Cockcoft-Gault (C-G) formula. The World Health Organization gender specific bone mineral density (BMD) cut-offs were used to define the populations with osteopenia and osteoporosis. For women ages 20-80+ with osteoporosis, the percent prevalence (95% CI) for mild to moderate compromise of CCr

Estimated numbers of men and women infected with HIV/AIDS in Tijuana, Mexico.

PubMed

Brouwer, Kimberly C; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Bravo-García, Enrique; Gayet, Cecilia; Patterson, Thomas L; Bertozzi, Stefano M; Hogg, Robert S

2006-03-01

Tijuana, Mexico, just south of San Diego, California, is located by the busiest land border crossing in the world. Although UNAIDS considers Mexico to be a country of "low prevalence, high risk," recent surveillance data among sentinel populations in Tijuana suggests HIV prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of men and women aged 15 to 49 years infected with HIV in Tijuana. Gender and age-specific estimates of the Tijuana population were obtained from the 2000 Mexican census. Population and HIV prevalence estimates for at-risk groups were obtained from published reports, community based studies, and data from the Centro Nacional para la Prevención y Control del VIH/SIDA (CENSIDA). Age-specific fertility rates for Mexico were used to derive the number of low and high-risk pregnant women. Numbers of HIV-positive men and women were estimated for each at-risk group and then aggregated. A high growth scenario based on current HIV prevalence and a conservative, low growth estimate were determined. A total of 686,600 men and women in Tijuana were aged 15 to 49 years at the time of the 2000 census. Considering both scenarios, the number of infected persons ranged from 1,803 to 5,472 (HIV prevalence: 0.26 to 0.80%). The majority of these persons were men (>70%). The largest number of infected persons were MSM (N = 1,146 to 3,300) and IDUs (N = 147 to 650). Our data suggest that up to one in every 125 persons aged 15-49 years in Tijuana is HIV-infected. Interventions to reduce ongoing spread of HIV are urgently needed.

Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.

PubMed

Vilar, M J; Ranta, J; Virtanen, S; Korkeala, H

2015-01-01

Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

Fewer Marriages, More Divergence: Marriage Projections for Millennials to Age 40

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Steven P.; Astone, Nan Marie; Peters, H. Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Declining marriage rates suggest a growing fraction of millennials will remain unmarried through age 40. In this brief, we use data from the American Community Survey to estimate age-specific marriage rates and project the percentage of millennials who will marry by age 40 in different scenarios. We find that the percentage of millennials marrying…

Misclassification of survey responses and black-white disparity in mammography use, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1995-2006.

PubMed

Njai, Rashid; Siegel, Paul Z; Miller, Jacqueline W; Liao, Youlian

2011-05-01

The validity of self-reported data for mammography differ by race. We assessed the effect of racial differences in the validity of age-adjusted, self-reported mammography use estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1995 through 2006 to determine whether misclassification (inaccurate survey question response) may have obscured actual racial disparities. We adjusted BRFSS mammography use data for age by using 2000 census estimates and for misclassification by using the following formula: (estimated prevalence - 1 + specificity) / (sensitivity + specificity - 1). We used values reported in the literature for the formula (sensitivity = 0.97 for both black and white women, specificity = 0.49 and 0.62, respectively, for black and white women). After adjustment for misclassification, the percentage of women aged 40 years or older in 1995 who reported receiving a mammogram during the previous 2 years was 54% among white women and 41% among black women, compared with 70% among both white and black women after adjustment for age only. In 2006, the percentage after adjustment for misclassification was 65% among white women and 59% among black women compared with 77% among white women and 78% among black women after adjustment for age only. Self-reported data overestimate mammography use - more so for black women than for white women. After adjustment for respondent misclassification, neither white women nor black women had attained the Healthy People 2010 objective (≥ 70%) by 2006, and a disparity between white and black women emerged.

Virtual anthropology: useful radiological tools for age assessment in clinical forensic medicine and thanatology.

PubMed

Dedouit, Fabrice; Saint-Martin, Pauline; Mokrane, Fatima-Zohra; Savall, Frédéric; Rousseau, Hervé; Crubézy, Eric; Rougé, Daniel; Telmon, Norbert

2015-09-01

Virtual anthropology consists of the introduction of modern slice imaging to biological and forensic anthropology. Thanks to this non-invasive scientific revolution, some classifications and staging systems, first based on dry bone analysis, can be applied to cadavers with no need for specific preparation, as well as to living persons. Estimation of bone and dental age is one of the possibilities offered by radiology. Biological age can be estimated in clinical forensic medicine as well as in living persons. Virtual anthropology may also help the forensic pathologist to estimate a deceased person's age at death, which together with sex, geographical origin and stature, is one of the important features determining a biological profile used in reconstructive identification. For this forensic purpose, the radiological tools used are multislice computed tomography and, more recently, X-ray free imaging techniques such as magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound investigations. We present and discuss the value of these investigations for age estimation in anthropology.

Causes and prevalence of visual impairment among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Congdon, Nathan; O'Colmain, Benita; Klaver, Caroline C W; Klein, Ronald; Muñoz, Beatriz; Friedman, David S; Kempen, John; Taylor, Hugh R; Mitchell, Paul

2004-04-01

To estimate the cause-specific prevalence and distribution of blindness and low vision in the United States by age, race/ethnicity, and gender, and to estimate the change in these prevalence figures over the next 20 years. Summary prevalence estimates of blindness (both according to the US definition of < or =6/60 [< or =20/200] best-corrected visual acuity in the better-seeing eye and the World Health Organization standard of < 6/120 [< 20/400]) and low vision (< 6/12 [< 20/40] best-corrected vision in the better-seeing eye) were prepared separately for black, Hispanic, and white persons in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years. The estimated prevalences were based on recent population-based studies in the United States, Australia, and Europe. These estimates were applied to 2000 US Census data, and to projected US population figures for 2020, to estimate the number of Americans with visual impairment. Cause-specific prevalences of blindness and low vision were also estimated for the different racial/ethnic groups. Based on demographics from the 2000 US Census, an estimated 937 000 (0.78%) Americans older than 40 years were blind (US definition). An additional 2.4 million Americans (1.98%) had low vision. The leading cause of blindness among white persons was age-related macular degeneration (54.4% of the cases), while among black persons, cataract and glaucoma accounted for more than 60% of blindness. Cataract was the leading cause of low vision, responsible for approximately 50% of bilateral vision worse than 6/12 (20/40) among white, black, and Hispanic persons. The number of blind persons in the US is projected to increase by 70% to 1.6 million by 2020, with a similar rise projected for low vision. Blindness or low vision affects approximately 1 in 28 Americans older than 40 years. The specific causes of visual impairment, and especially blindness, vary greatly by race/ethnicity. The prevalence of visual disabilities will increase markedly during the next 20 years, owing largely to the aging of the US population.

[Estimation of the biological age in taiga tick females (Ixodes persulcatus:Ixodidae) by the fat reserves in organism].

PubMed

Balashov, Iu S; Grigor'eva, L A

2010-01-01

The method of estimation of the biological age in non-feeding tick females by the level of adipose inclusions in the cells of the midgut and fat body is developed. In order to estimate the fat reserves in non-feeding females, alive ticks were dissected and fragments of their internal were vitally stained with the pregnant solution of sudan III in 70 % ethanol. Three age-specific groups were established: I, young females whose intestines and fat body were filled with fat inclusions; II, mature females whose fat reserves were partially expended; III, old females having isolated fat inclusions in their midgut and fat body.

Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V.; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

2014-01-01

In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Conclusion: Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended. PMID:25177143

Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method.

PubMed

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

2014-09-01

In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

The 12-Month Prevalence of DSM-IV Anxiety Disorders among Nigerian Secondary School Adolescents Aged 13-18 Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adewuya, Abiodun O.; Ola, Bola A.; Adewumi, Tomi A.

2007-01-01

Aims: To estimate the 12-month prevalence of DSM-IV-specific anxiety disorders among Nigerian secondary school adolescents aged 13-18 years. Method: A representative sample of adolescents (n=1090) from senior secondary schools in a semi-urban town in Nigeria was assessed for the 12-month prevalence of DSM-IV-specific anxiety. Results: The 12-month…

Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2016-06-01

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia. PMID:19331670

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

PubMed

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Age Determination by Back Length for African Savanna Elephants: Extending Age Assessment Techniques for Aerial-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.; Ferreira, Sam M.; Nørgaard, Camilla F.; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C.; Moss, Cynthia J.

2011-01-01

Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables. PMID:22028925

Age estimation in northern Chinese children by measurement of open apices in tooth roots.

PubMed

Guo, Yu-Cheng; Yan, Chun-Xia; Lin, Xing-Wei; Zhou, Hong; Li, Ju-Ping; Pan, Feng; Zhang, Zhi-Yong; Wei, Lai; Tang, Zheng; Chen, Teng

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of Cameriere's methods on dental age estimation in the northern Chinese population. A sample of orthopantomographs of 785 healthy children (397 girls and 388 boys) aged between 5 and 15 years was collected. The seven left permanent mandibular teeth were evaluated with Cameriere's method. The sample was split into a training set to develop a Chinese-specific prediction formula and a test set to validate this novel developed formula. Following the training dataset study, the variables gender (g), x 3 (canine teeth), x 4 (first premolar), x 7 (second molar), N 0, and the first-order interaction between s and N 0 contributed significantly to the fit, yielding the following linear regression formula: Age = 10.202 + 0.826 g - 4.068x 3 - 1.536x 4 - 1.959x 7 + 0.536 N 0 - 0.219 s [Symbol: see text] N 0, where g is a variable, 1 for boys and 0 for girls. The equation explained 91.2 % (R (2) = 0.912) of the total deviance. By analyzing the test dataset, the accuracy of the European formula and Chinese formula was determined by the difference between the estimated dental age (DA) and chronological age (CA). The European formula verified on the collected Chinese children underestimated chronological age with a mean difference of around -0.23 year, while the Chinese formula underestimated the chronological age with a mean difference of -0.04 year. Significant differences in mean differences in years (DA - CA) and absolute difference (AD) between the Chinese-specific prediction formula and Cameriere's European formula were observed. In conclusion, a Chinese-specific prediction formula based on a large Chinese reference sample could ameliorate the age prediction accuracy in the age group of children.

An evidence synthesis approach to estimating the incidence of seasonal influenza in the Netherlands.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; Presanis, Anne M; De Angelis, Daniela; van der Hoek, Wim; Hooiveld, Mariette; Donker, Gé; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E

2014-01-01

To estimate, using Bayesian evidence synthesis, the age-group-specific annual incidence of symptomatic infection with seasonal influenza in the Netherlands over the period 2005-2007. The Netherlands population and age group distribution for 2006 defined the base population. The number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases was estimated from sentinel surveillance data and adjusted for underascertainment using the estimated proportion of ILI cases that do not consult a general practitioner. The estimated number of symptomatic influenza (SI) cases was based on indirect evidence from the surveillance of ILI cases and the proportions of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the 2004/5, 2005/6 and 2006/7 respiratory years. In scenario analysis, the number of SI cases prevented by increasing vaccination uptake within the 65 +  age group was estimated. The overall symptomatic infection attack rate (SIAR) over the period 2005-2007 was estimated at 2·5% (95% credible interval [CI]: 2·1-3·2%); 410 200 SI cases (95% CI: 338 500-518 600) were estimated to occur annually. Age-group-specific SIARs were estimated for <5 years at 4·9% (2·1-13·7%), for 5-14 years at 3·0% (2·0-4·7%), for 15-44 years at 2·6% (2·1-3·2%), for 45-64 years at 1·9% (1·4-2·5%) and for 65 +  years at 1·7% (1·0-3·0%). Under assumed vaccination uptake increases of 5% and 15%, 1970 and 5310 SI cases would be averted. By synthesising the available information on seasonal influenza and ILI from diverse sources, the annual extent of symptomatic infection can be derived. These estimates are useful for assessing the burden of seasonal influenza and for guiding vaccination policy. © 2013 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Strain-specific estimation of epidemic success provides insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Rasigade, Jean-Philippe; Barbier, Maxime; Dumitrescu, Oana; Pichat, Catherine; Carret, Gérard; Ronnaux-Baron, Anne-Sophie; Blasquez, Ghislaine; Godin-Benhaim, Christine; Boisset, Sandrine; Carricajo, Anne; Jacomo, Véronique; Fredenucci, Isabelle; Pérouse de Montclos, Michèle; Flandrois, Jean-Pierre; Ader, Florence; Supply, Philip; Lina, Gérard; Wirth, Thierry

2017-01-01

The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis involves complex interactions of socio-economic and, possibly, microbiological factors. We describe an analytical framework to infer factors of epidemic success based on the joint analysis of epidemiological, clinical and pathogen genetic data. We derive isolate-specific, genetic distance-based estimates of epidemic success, and we represent success-related time-dependent concepts, namely epidemicity and endemicity, by restricting analysis to specific time scales. The method is applied to analyze a surveillance-based cohort of 1,641 tuberculosis patients with minisatellite-based isolate genotypes. Known predictors of isolate endemicity (older age, native status) and epidemicity (younger age, sputum smear positivity) were identified with high confidence (P < 0.001). Long-term epidemic success also correlated with the ability of Euro-American and Beijing MTBC lineages to cause active pulmonary infection, independent of patient age and country of origin. Our results demonstrate how important insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis can be gained from active surveillance data. PMID:28349973

Accounting for age structure and spatial structure in eco-evolutionary analyses of a large, mobile vertebrate.

PubMed

Waples, Robin S; Scribner, Kim; Moore, Jennifer; Draheim, Hope; Etter, Dwayne; Boersen, Mark

2018-04-14

The idealized concept of a population is integral to ecology, evolutionary biology, and natural resource management. To make analyses tractable, most models adopt simplifying assumptions, which almost inevitably are violated by real species in nature. Here we focus on both demographic and genetic estimates of effective population size per generation (Ne), the effective number of breeders per year (Nb), and Wright's neighborhood size (NS) for black bears (Ursus americanus) that are continuously distributed in the northern lower peninsula of Michigan, USA. We illustrate practical application of recently-developed methods to account for violations of two common, simplifying assumptions about populations: 1) reproduction occurs in discrete generations, and 2) mating occurs randomly among all individuals. We use a 9-year harvest dataset of >3300 individuals, together with genetic determination of 221 parent-offspring pairs, to estimate male and female vital rates, including age-specific survival, age-specific fecundity, and age-specific variance in fecundity (for which empirical data are rare). We find strong evidence for overdispersed variance in reproductive success of same-age individuals in both sexes, and we show that constraints on litter size have a strong influence on results. We also estimate that another life-history trait that is often ignored (skip breeding by females) has a relatively modest influence, reducing Nb by 9% and increasing Ne by 3%. We conclude that isolation by distance depresses genetic estimates of Nb, which implicitly assume a randomly-mating population. Estimated demographic NS (100, based on parent-offspring dispersal) was similar to genetic NS (85, based on regression of genetic distance and geographic distance), indicating that the >36,000 km2 study area includes about 4-5 black-bear neighborhoods. Results from this expansive data set provide important insight into effects of violating assumptions when estimating evolutionary parameters for long-lived, free-ranging species. In conjunction with recently-developed analytical methodology, the ready availability of non-lethal DNA sampling methods and the ability to rapidly and cheaply survey many thousands of molecular markers should facilitate eco-evolutionary studies like this for many more species in nature.

Childbearing in adolescents aged 12-15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries.

PubMed

Neal, Sarah; Matthews, Zoë; Frost, Melanie; Fogstad, Helga; Camacho, Alma V; Laski, Laura

2012-09-01

There is strong evidence that the health risks associated with adolescent pregnancy are concentrated among the youngest girls (e.g. those under 16 years). Fertility rates in this age group have not previously been comprehensively estimated and published. By drawing data from 42 large, nationally representative household surveys in low resource countries carried out since 2003 this article presents estimates of age-specific birth rates for girls aged 12-15, and the percentage of girls who give birth at age 15 or younger. From these we estimate that approximately 2.5 million births occur to girls aged under 16 in low resource countries each year. The highest rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Sierra Leone more than 10% of girls become mothers before they are 16. Strategies to reduce these high levels are vital if we are to alleviate poor reproductive health. © 2012 The Authors  Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2012 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

ALGORITHMS FOR ESTIMATING RESTING METABOLIC RATE AND ACTIVITY SPECIFIC VENTILATION RATES FOR USE IN COMPLEX EXPOSURE AND INTAKE DOSE MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

This work summarizes advancements made that allow for better estimation of resting metabolic rate (RMR) and subsequent estimation of ventilation rates (i.e., total ventilation (V_E) and alveolar ventilation (V_A)) for individuals of both genders and all ages. ...

Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

2008-01-01

Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

Estimating the age-specific duration of herpes zoster vaccine protection: a matter of model choice?

PubMed

Bilcke, Joke; Ogunjimi, Benson; Hulstaert, Frank; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel; Beutels, Philippe

2012-04-05

The estimation of herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is crucial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HZ vaccination. Published estimates for the duration of protection from the vaccine diverge substantially, although based on data from the same trial for a follow-up period of 5 years. Different models were used to obtain these estimates, but it is unclear which of these models is most appropriate (if any). Only one study estimated vaccine efficacy by age at vaccination and time since vaccination combined. Recently, data became available from the same trial for a follow-up period of 7 years. We aim to elaborate on estimating HZ vaccine efficacy (1) by estimating it as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination, (2) by comparing the fits of a range of models, and (3) by fitting these models on data for a follow-up period of 5 and 7 years. Although the models' fit to data are very comparable, they differ substantially in how they estimate vaccine efficacy to change as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination. An accurate estimation of HZ vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is hampered by the lack of insight in the biological processes underlying HZ vaccine protection, and by the fact that such data are currently not available in sufficient detail. Uncertainty about the choice of model to estimate this important parameter should be acknowledged in cost-effectiveness analyses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dental age assessment of southern Chinese using the United Kingdom Caucasian reference dataset.

PubMed

Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Roberts, Graham J; King, Nigel M; Wong, Hai Ming

2012-03-10

Dental age assessment is one the most accurate methods for estimating the age of an unknown person. Demirjian's dataset on a French-Canadian population has been widely tested for its applicability on various ethnic groups including southern Chinese. Following inaccurate results from these studies, investigators are now confronted with using alternate datasets for comparison. Testing the applicability of other reliable datasets which result in accurate findings might limit the need to develop population specific standards. Recently, a Reference Data Set (RDS) similar to the Demirjian was prepared in the United Kingdom (UK) and has been subsequently validated. The advantages of the UK Caucasian RDS includes versatility from including both the maxillary and mandibular dentitions, involvement of a wide age group of subjects for evaluation and the possibility of precise age estimation with the mathematical technique of meta-analysis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of the United Kingdom Caucasian RDS on southern Chinese subjects. Dental panoramic tomographs (DPT) of 266 subjects (133 males and 133 females) aged 2-21 years that were previously taken for clinical diagnostic purposes were selected and scored by a single calibrated examiner based on Demirjian's classification of tooth developmental stages (A-H). The ages corresponding to each stage of tooth developmental stage were obtained from the UK dataset. Intra-examiner reproducibility was tested and the Cohen kappa (0.88) showed that the level of agreement was 'almost perfect'. The estimated dental age was then compared with the chronological age using a paired t-test, with statistical significance set at p<0.01. The results showed that the UK dataset, underestimated the age of southern Chinese subjects by 0.24 years but the results were not statistically significant. In conclusion, the UK Caucasian RDS may not be suitable for estimating the age of southern Chinese subjects and there is a need for an ethnic specific reference dataset for southern Chinese. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Estimating Stage Specific Vital Rate Responses to Stress Within Mixed Age Populations of the Opossum Shrimp Americamysis bahia Using Digital Imaging

EPA Science Inventory

Most observations of stressor effects on marine crustaceans are made on individuals or even-aged cohorts. Results of these studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions, either because life cycle models are incomplete, or because stressor effects on mixed age po...

Global data on blindness.

PubMed Central

Thylefors, B.; Négrel, A. D.; Pararajasegaram, R.; Dadzie, K. Y.

1995-01-01

Globally, it is estimated that there are 38 million persons who are blind. Moreover, a further 110 million people have low vision and are at great risk of becoming blind. The main causes of blindness and low vision are cataract, trachoma, glaucoma, onchocerciasis, and xerophthalmia; however, insufficient data on blindness from causes such as diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration preclude specific estimations of their global prevalence. The age-specific prevalences of the major causes of blindness that are related to age indicate that the trend will be for an increase in such blindness over the decades to come, unless energetic efforts are made to tackle these problems. More data collected through standardized methodologies, using internationally accepted (ICD-10) definitions, are needed. Data on the incidence of blindness due to common causes would be useful for calculating future trends more precisely. PMID:7704921

Estimating seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 among different Middle East and North African male populations residing in Qatar

PubMed Central

Nasrallah, Gheyath K.; Dargham, Soha R.; Mohammed, Layla I.

2017-01-01

HSV‐1 epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains poorly understood. Our study aimed to measure HSV‐1 antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) and its age‐distribution among select MENA populations residing in Qatar. Sera were collected from male blood donors attending Hamad Medical Corporation 2013‐2015. A total of 2,077 sera were tested for anti‐HSV‐1 antibodies using HerpeSelect® 1 ELISA IgG kits (Focus Diagnostics, Cypress, CA). Robust Poisson regression was conducted to estimate adjusted infection prevalence ratios. Country‐specific HSV‐1 seroprevalence was estimated for 10 national populations: 97.5% among Egyptians, 92.6% among Yemenis, 90.7% among Sudanese, 88.5% among Syrians, 86.5% among Jordanians, 82.3% among Qataris, 81.4% among Iranians, 81.4% among Lebanese, 80.5% among Palestinians, and 77.0% among Pakistanis. Age‐specific HSV‐1 seroprevalence was estimated for Egypt, the Fertile Crescent (Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria), and Qatar. Seroprevalence increased with age among Fertile Crescent and Qatari nationals. Seroprevalence increased from 70.0% among those aged ≤ 24 years up to 98.0% among those aged ≥55 years among Fertile Crescent nationals. Seroprevalence was consistently above 90% for all ages among Egyptians. HSV‐1 seroprevalence is high in MENA, though with some variation across countries. The seroprevalence appears to have declined among current young age cohorts compared to its levels a few decades ago. PMID:28817197

Estimates of over-diagnosis of breast cancer due to population-based mammography screening in South Australia after adjustment for lead time effects.

PubMed

Beckmann, Kerri; Duffy, Stephen W; Lynch, John; Hiller, Janet; Farshid, Gelareh; Roder, David

2015-09-01

To estimate over-diagnosis due to population-based mammography screening using a lead time adjustment approach, with lead time measures based on symptomatic cancers only. Women aged 40-84 in 1989-2009 in South Australia eligible for mammography screening. Numbers of observed and expected breast cancer cases were compared, after adjustment for lead time. Lead time effects were modelled using age-specific estimates of lead time (derived from interval cancer rates and predicted background incidence, using maximum likelihood methods) and screening sensitivity, projected background breast cancer incidence rates (in the absence of screening), and proportions screened, by age and calendar year. Lead time estimates were 12, 26, 43 and 53 months, for women aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 respectively. Background incidence rates were estimated to have increased by 0.9% and 1.2% per year for invasive and all breast cancer. Over-diagnosis among women aged 40-84 was estimated at 7.9% (0.1-12.0%) for invasive cases and 12.0% (5.7-15.4%) when including ductal carcinoma in-situ (DCIS). We estimated 8% over-diagnosis for invasive breast cancer and 12% inclusive of DCIS cancers due to mammography screening among women aged 40-84. These estimates may overstate the extent of over-diagnosis if the increasing prevalence of breast cancer risk factors has led to higher background incidence than projected. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in the Metropolitan Area of Rome: A Capture-Recapture Analysis.

PubMed

Farcomeni, Alessio; Cortese, Antonio; Sgarlata, Eleonora; Alunni Fegatelli, Danilo; Marfia, Gerolama Alessandra; Buttari, Fabio; Mirabella, Massimiliano; De Fino, Chiara; Prosperini, Luca; Pozzilli, Carlo; Grasso, Maria Grazia; Iasevoli, Luigi; Di Battista, Giancarlo; Millefiorini, Enrico

2018-03-02

Limited data are available on the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in central Italy. The objective of this study is to estimate MS prevalence in the metropolitan area of Rome. We used the capture-recapture method to calculate prevalence estimates in the study area. The selected prevalence day was December 31, 2015. A total of 1,007 patients, with a definite diagnosis of MS according to the revised McDonald's criteria, were considered for crude, age- and sex-specific prevalence estimation. The overall crude prevalence rate was 146.2 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 119.9-172.5). A higher prevalence rate was recorded in females (194.1, 95% CI 149.6-238.6) than in males (93.0, 95% CI 67.2-118.8) with a female to male ratio of 1.8. Age-specific prevalence peaked in the 25-34 , 35-44 and 45-54 years class; moreover, it was found to increase up to the 45-54 years age group in females and the 35-44 years age group in males, decreasing thereafter. The results confirm that the metropolitan area of Rome is a high-risk area for MS. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Heavy episodic drinking among transgender persons: Disparities and predictors.

PubMed

Scheim, Ayden I; Bauer, Greta R; Shokoohi, Mostafa

2016-10-01

Drawing on a survey of transgender people in Canada's most populous province, we estimate the frequency of heavy episodic drinking (HED), compare HED prevalence to the age-standardized background population, and examine associations with socio-demographics, gender transition, and social exclusion. 433 transgender persons aged 16+ completed a respondent-driven sampling survey in 2009-2010. Analyses were weighted using RDS II methods, including frequencies and prevalence ratios. Overall and sex-specific estimates of HED among Ontario residents in the 2009-2010 Canadian Community Health Survey (n=39,980) were standardized to the overall and gender-specific transgender age distributions. Estimated prevalence of HED at least monthly among transgender Ontarians was 33.2% (95% CI: 26.3, 40.1), 1.5 times greater than expected based on the age-standardized Ontario population. Transmasculine (female-to-male spectrum) persons were more likely than transfeminine persons to report HED (42.2% versus 22.7%), an effect robust to covariate adjustment. Current sex work was associated with greater HED, but gender transition and social exclusion factors were not. Gendered pathways to alcohol misuse, particularly among transmasculine persons, warrant further research and intervention development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

2007-01-01

Age structure proportions (proportion of harvested individuals within each age class) are commonly used as support for regulatory restrictions and input for deer population models. Such use requires critical evaluation when harvest regulations force hunters to selectively harvest specific age classes, due to impact on the underlying population age structure. We used a stochastic population simulation model to evaluate the impact of using harvest proportions to evaluate changes in population age structure under a selective harvest management program at two scales. Using harvest proportions to parameterize the age-specific harvest segment of the model for the local scale showed that predictions of post-harvest age structure did not vary dependent upon whether selective harvest criteria were in use or not. At the county scale, yearling frequency in the post-harvest population increased, but model predictions indicated that post-harvest population size of 2.5 years old males would decline below levels found before implementation of the antler restriction, reducing the number of individuals recruited into older age classes. Across the range of age-specific harvest rates modeled, our simulation predicted that underestimation of age-specific harvest rates has considerable influence on predictions of post-harvest population age structure. We found that the consequence of uncertainty in harvest rates corresponds to uncertainty in predictions of residual population structure, and this correspondence is proportional to scale. Our simulations also indicate that regardless of use of harvest proportions or harvest rates, at either the local or county scale the modeled SHC had a high probability (>0.60 and >0.75, respectively) of eliminating recruitment into >2.5 years old age classes. Although frequently used to increase population age structure, our modeling indicated that selective harvest criteria can decrease or eliminate the number of white-tailed deer recruited into older age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the under-reporting of norovirus illness in Germany utilizing enhanced awareness of diarrhoea during a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O104:H4 in 2011--a time series analysis.

PubMed

Bernard, Helen; Werber, Dirk; Höhle, Michael

2014-03-01

Laboratory-confirmed norovirus illness is reportable in Germany since 2001. Reported case numbers are known to be undercounts, and a valid estimate of the actual incidence in Germany does not exist. An increase of reported norovirus illness was observed simultaneously to a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O104:H4 in Germany in 2011--likely due to enhanced (but not complete) awareness of diarrhoea at that time. We aimed at estimating age- and sex-specific factors of that excess, which should be interpretable as (minimal) under-reporting factors of norovirus illness in Germany. We used national reporting data on laboratory-confirmed norovirus illness in Germany from calendar week 31 in 2003 through calendar week 30 in 2012. A negative binomial time series regression model was used to describe the weekly counts in 8∙2 age-sex strata while adjusting for secular trend and seasonality. Overall as well as age- and sex-specific factors for the excess were estimated by including additional terms (either an O104:H4 outbreak period indicator or a triple interaction term between outbreak period, age and sex) in the model. We estimated the overall under-reporting factor to be 1.76 (95% CI 1.28-2.41) for the first three weeks of the outbreak before the outbreak vehicle was publicly communicated. Highest under-reporting factors were here estimated for 20-29 year-old males (2.88, 95% CI 2.01-4.11) and females (2.67, 95% CI 1.87-3.79). Under-reporting was substantially lower in persons aged <10 years and 70 years or older. These are the first estimates of (minimal) under-reporting factors for norovirus illness in Germany. They provide a starting point for a more detailed investigation of the relationship between actual incidence and reporting incidence of norovirus illness in Germany.

Nuclear constraints on the age of the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schramm, D. N.

1982-01-01

A review is made of how one can use nuclear physics to put rather stringent limits on the age of the universe and thus the cosmic distance scale. The age can be estimated to a fair degree of accuracy. No single measurement of the time since the Big Bang gives a specific, unambiguous age. There are several methods that together fix the age with surprising precision. In particular, there are three totally independent techniques for estimating an age and a fourth technique which involves finding consistency of the other three in the framework of the standard Big Bang cosmological model. The three independent methods are: cosmological dynamics, the age of the oldest stars, and radioactive dating. This paper concentrates on the third of the three methods, and the consistency technique.

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

PubMed

De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

2014-09-01

The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

Mortality rates among Arab Americans in Michigan.

PubMed

Dallo, Florence J; Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R

2012-04-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population.

Mortality Rates Among Arab Americans in Michigan

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J.; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R.

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population. PMID:21318619

ESTIMATES OF AGE-SPECIFIC URINARY EXCRETION RATES FOR CREATININE AMONG CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

The results of this study suggest that naïve adjustment by creatinine concentration, without consideration of the age-dependence of the physiological mechanisms controlling its excretion, may introduce sizeable error and is inappropriate when comparing metabolite concentrations a...

The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

PubMed Central

Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

2013-01-01

Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

Variance estimation for the Federal Waterfowl Harvest Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geissler, P.H.

1988-01-01

The Federal Waterfowl Harvest Surveys provide estimates of waterfowl harvest by species for flyways and states, harvests of most other migratory game bird species (by waterfowl hunters), crippling losses for ducks, geese, and coots, days hunted, and bag per hunter. The Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey separately estimates the harvest of ducks and geese using cluster samples of hunters who buy duck stamps at sample post offices. The Waterfowl Parts Collection estimates species, age, and sex ratios from parts solicited from successful hunters who responded to the Waterfowl Hunter Questionnaire Survey in previous years. These ratios are used to partition the duck and goose harvest into species, age, and sex specific harvest estimates. Annual estimates are correlated because successful hunters who respond to the Questionnaire Survey in one year may be asked to contribute to the Parts Collection for the next three years. Bootstrap variance estimates are used because covariances among years are difficult to estimate.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2018.

PubMed

Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Eun Sook

2018-04-01

This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2018 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden. Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2015 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2016 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly, we only used the data of the latest trend. A total of 204,909 new cancer cases and 82,155 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2018. The most common cancer sites were lung, followed by stomach, colorectal, breast and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For mortality, the most common sites were lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, stomach and pancreas. The incidence rate of all cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually, mainly due to decrease of thyroid cancer. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluation of cancer-control programs.

Combination of five diagnostic tests to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection among school-aged children from a rural area of colombia.

PubMed

Barreto, Rafael E; Narváez, Javier; Sepúlveda, Natalia A; Velásquez, Fabián C; Díaz, Sandra C; López, Myriam Consuelo; Reyes, Patricia; Moncada, Ligia I

2017-09-01

Public health programs for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiases require valid diagnostic tests for surveillance and parasitic control evaluation. However, there is currently no agreement about what test should be used as a gold standard for the diagnosis of hookworm infection. Still, in presence of concurrent data for multiple tests it is possible to use statistical models to estimate measures of test performance and prevalence. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of five parallel tests (direct microscopic examination, Kato-Katz, Harada-Mori, modified Ritchie-Frick, and culture in agar plate) to detect hookworm infections in a sample of school-aged children from a rural area in Colombia. We used both, a frequentist approach, and Bayesian latent class models to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five tests for hookworm detection, and to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection in absence of a Gold Standard. The Kato-Katz and agar plate methods had an overall agreement of 95% and kappa coefficient of 0.76. Different models estimated a sensitivity between 76% and 92% for the agar plate technique, and 52% to 87% for the Kato-Katz technique. The other tests had lower sensitivity. All tests had specificity between 95% and 98%. The prevalence estimated by the Kato-Katz and Agar plate methods for different subpopulations varied between 10% and 14%, and was consistent with the prevalence estimated from the combination of all tests. The Harada-Mori, Ritchie-Frick and direct examination techniques resulted in lower and disparate prevalence estimates. Bayesian approaches assuming imperfect specificity resulted in lower prevalence estimates than the frequentist approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

PubMed Central

Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

2013-01-01

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

A new formula for assessing skeletal age in growing infants and children by measuring carpals and epiphyses of radio and ulna.

PubMed

De Luca, Stefano; Mangiulli, Tatiana; Merelli, Vera; Conforti, Federica; Velandia Palacio, Luz Andrea; Agostini, Susanna; Spinas, Enrico; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to develop a specific formula for the purpose of assessing skeletal age in a sample of Italian growing infants and children by measuring carpals and epiphyses of radio and ulna. A sample of 332 X-rays of left hand-wrist bones (130 boys and 202 girls), aged between 1 and 16 years, was analyzed retrospectively. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied to study how sex affects the growth of the ratio Bo/Ca in the boys and girls groups. The regression model, describing age as a linear function of sex and the Bo/Ca ratio for the new Italian sample, yielded the following formula: Age = -1.7702 + 1.0088 g + 14.8166 (Bo/Ca). This model explained 83.5% of total variance (R(2) = 0.835). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was -0.38, with a quartile deviation of 2.01 and a standard error of estimate of 1.54. A second sample test of 204 Italian children (108 girls and 96 boys), aged between 1 and 16 years, was used to evaluate the accuracy of the specific regression model. A sample paired t-test was used to analyze the mean differences between the skeletal and chronological age. The mean error for girls is 0.00 and the estimated age is slightly underestimated in boys with a mean error of -0.30 years. The standard deviations are 0.70 years for girls and 0.78 years for boys. The obtained results indicate that there is a high relationship between estimated and chronological ages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2013-04-01

Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

Accounting for multimorbidity can affect the estimation of the Burden of Disease: a comparison of approaches.

PubMed

Hilderink, Henk B M; Plasmans, Marjanne H D; Snijders, Bianca E P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Poos, M J J C René; van Gool, Coen H

2016-01-01

Various Burden of Disease (BoD) studies do not account for multimorbidity in their BoD estimates. Ignoring multimorbidity can lead to inaccuracies in BoD estimations, particularly in ageing populations that include large proportions of persons with two or more health conditions. The objective of this study is to improve BoD estimates for the Netherlands by accounting for multimorbidity. For this purpose, we analyzed different methods for 1) estimating the prevalence of multimorbidity and 2) deriving Disability Weights (DWs) for multimorbidity by using existing data on single health conditions. We included 25 health conditions from the Dutch Burden of Disease study that have a high rate of prevalence and that make a large contribution to the total number of Years Lived with a Disability (YLD). First, we analyzed four methods for estimating the prevalence of multimorbid conditions (i.e. independent, independent age- and sex-specific, dependent, and dependent sex- and age-specific). Secondly, we analyzed three methods for calculating the Combined Disability Weights (CDWs) associated with multimorbid conditions (i.e. additive, multiplicative and maximum limit). A combination of these two approaches was used to recalculate the number of YLDs, which is a component of the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). This study shows that the YLD estimates for 25 health conditions calculated using the multiplicative method for Combined Disability Weights are 5 % lower, and 14 % lower when using the maximum limit method, than when calculated using the additive method. Adjusting for sex- and age-specific dependent co-occurrence of health conditions reduces the number of YLDs by 10 % for the multiplicative method and by 26 % for the maximum limit method. The adjustment is higher for health conditions with a higher prevalence in old age, like heart failure (up to 43 %) and coronary heart diseases (up to 33 %). Health conditions with a high prevalence in middle age, such as anxiety disorders, have a moderate adjustment (up to 13 %). We conclude that BoD calculations that do not account for multimorbidity can result in an overestimation of the actual BoD. This may affect public health policy strategies that focus on single health conditions if the underlying cost-effectiveness analysis overestimates the intended effects. The methodology used in this study could be further refined to provide greater insight into co-occurrence and the possible consequences of multimorbid conditions in terms of disability for particular combinations of health conditions.

Estimating Stage-Specific Vital Rate Responses to Stress within Mixed Age Populations of the Opossum Shrimp Americamysis Bahia Using Digital Imaging (NAC SETAC 2011)

EPA Science Inventory

Most observations of stressor effects on marine crustaceans are made on individuals or even-aged cohorts. Results of these studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions, either because life cycle models are incomplete, or because stressor effects on mixed age po...

Patient-specific Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk for Pediatric Chest CT

PubMed Central

Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0–16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) or dose–length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Results: Organ dose normalized by tube current–time product or CTDIvol decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). Conclusion: The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. © RSNA, 2011 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1 PMID:21467251

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest CT.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M; Colsher, James G; Frush, Donald P

2011-06-01

To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) or dose-length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Organ dose normalized by tube current-time product or CTDI(vol) decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1. RSNA, 2011

On the specificity of face cognition compared with general cognitive functioning across adult age.

PubMed

Hildebrandt, Andrea; Wilhelm, Oliver; Schmiedek, Florian; Herzmann, Grit; Sommer, Werner

2011-09-01

Face cognition is considered a specific human ability, clearly differentiable from general cognitive functioning. Its specificity is primarily supported by cognitive-experimental and neuroimaging research, but recently also from an individual differences perspective. However, no comprehensive behavioral data are available, which would allow estimating lifespan changes of the covariance structure of face-cognition abilities and general cognitive functioning as well as age-differences in face cognition after accounting for interindividual variability in general cognition. The present study aimed to fill this gap. In an age-heterogeneous (18-82 years) sample of 448 adults, we found no factorial dedifferentiation between face cognition and general cognition. Age-related differences in face memory were still salient after taking into account changes in general cognitive functioning. Face cognition thus remains a specific human ability compared with general cognition, even until old age. We discuss implications for models of cognitive aging and suggest that it is necessary to include more explicitly special social abilities in those models.

Telomere length of the colonial coral Galaxea fascicularis at different developmental stages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuta, H.; Hidaka, M.

2013-06-01

The ability to estimate coral age using soft tissue would be useful for population biology or aging studies on corals. In this study, we investigated whether telomere length can be used to estimate coral age. We applied single telomere length analysis to a colonial coral, Galaxea fascicularis, and estimated telomere lengths of specific coral chromosomes at different developmental stages. If the telomere shortened at each cell division, the telomere length of the coral would be longest in sperm and shortest in adult colonies. However, the mean telomere length of sperm, planula larvae, and polyps was approximately 4 kb, with no significant differences among the developmental stages. The telomerase restriction fragment (TRF) analysis also showed no significant difference in the mean TRF length among the developmental stages. Our results suggested that telomere length is maintained during developmental stages and that estimating the age of colonial coral based on telomere length may not be possible. However, our findings can be used to examine avoidance of aging and rejuvenation during regeneration and asexual reproduction in colonial corals.

Incidence of intussusception in early infancy: a capture-recapture estimate for Germany.

PubMed

Weiß, S; Streng, A; Kries, R von; Liese, J; Wirth, S; Jenke, A C

2011-12-01

Rotavirus (RV) vaccination with the first generation vaccine (Rotashield) has been associated with intussusception (IS). Reliable age specific baseline incidence data for children ≤6 months of age in particular is fundamental for further post marketing monitoring of potential effects of recently introduced new RV vaccines. IS incidence was estimated by a 2-source capture-recapture calculation (CRC) based on ESPED (German Paediatric Surveillance Unit) reports and on hospital discharge records for 2006 and 2007. ESPED as well as hospital records were validated according to the Brighton Collaboration's Group definition for definite IS. Children that have been treated for IS in a hospital in one of two states of Germany (North-Rhine Westphalia and Bavaria). The annual IS incidence for infants <1 year in Germany calculated with the CRC estimate in Germany was 61.7/100 000 (95% CI: 54.5-70.1). However, the incidence appeared to vary by month of age over a range of 19.2/100 000 cases (95% CI: 12.5-30.4) in the first 3 months of life to 98.5/100 000 cases (95% CI: 80.9-120.6) during the 6 (th) to 8 (th) month. The male to female ratio for infants was 1.7:1 (95%CI: 1.6-1.8). The average incidence estimate for IS in infants (< 1 year) confirms previous estimates in Germany and Switzerland. However, age specific baseline incidence estimates for IS substantially vary during the first year of life. This has to be taken into account when analysing episodes of IS potentially associated with RV vaccination. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Burden of influenza-associated deaths in the Americas, 2002-2008.

PubMed

Cheng, Po-Yung; Palekar, Rakhee; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Iuliano, Danielle; Alencar, Airlane P; Bresee, Joseph; Oliva, Otavio; de Souza, Maria de Fatima Marinho; Widdowson, Marc-Alain

2015-08-01

Influenza disease is a vaccine-preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) region has invested in influenza vaccines, but few estimates of influenza burden exist to justify these investments. We estimated influenza-associated deaths for 35 PAHO countries during 2002-2008. Annually, PAHO countries report registered deaths. We used respiratory and circulatory (R&C) codes from seven countries with distinct influenza seasonality and high-quality mortality data to estimate influenza-associated mortality rates by age group (0-64, 65-74, and ≥ 75 years) with a Serfling regression model or a negative binomial model. We calculated the percent of all R&C deaths attributable to influenza by age group in these countries (etiologic fraction) and applied it to the age-specific mortality in 13 countries with good mortality data but poorly defined seasonality. Lastly, we grouped the remaining 15 countries into WHO mortality strata and applied the age and mortality stratum-specific rate of influenza mortality calculated from the 20 countries. We summed each country's estimate to arrive at an average total annual number and rate of influenza deaths in the Americas. For the 35 PAHO countries, we estimated an annual mean influenza-associated mortality rate of 2·1/100,000 among <65-year olds, 31·9/100 000 among those 65-74 years, and 161·8/100,000 among those ≥ 75 years. We estimated that annually between 40,880 and 160,270 persons (mean, 85,100) die of influenza illness in the PAHO region. Influenza remains an important cause of mortality in the Americas. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger

2010-01-01

The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

The Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21): further examination of dimensions, scale reliability, and correlates.

PubMed

Osman, Augustine; Wong, Jane L; Bagge, Courtney L; Freedenthal, Stacey; Gutierrez, Peter M; Lozano, Gregorio

2012-12-01

We conducted two studies to examine the dimensions, internal consistency reliability estimates, and potential correlates of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21; Lovibond & Lovibond, 1995). Participants in Study 1 included 887 undergraduate students (363 men and 524 women, aged 18 to 35 years; mean [M] age = 19.46, standard deviation [SD] = 2.17) recruited from two public universities to assess the specificity of the individual DASS-21 items and to evaluate estimates of internal consistency reliability. Participants in a follow-up study (Study 2) included 410 students (168 men and 242 women, aged 18 to 47 years; M age = 19.65, SD = 2.88) recruited from the same universities to further assess factorial validity and to evaluate potential correlates of the original DASS-21 total and scale scores. Item bifactor and confirmatory factor analyses revealed that a general factor accounted for the greatest proportion of common variance in the DASS-21 item scores (Study 1). In Study 2, the fit statistics showed good fit for the bifactor model. In addition, the DASS-21 total scale score correlated more highly with scores on a measure of mixed depression and anxiety than with scores on the proposed specific scales of depression or anxiety. Coefficient omega estimates for the DASS-21 scale scores were good. Further investigations of the bifactor structure and psychometric properties of the DASS-21, specifically its incremental and discriminant validity, using known clinical groups are needed. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Age-specific fluoride exposure in drinking water and osteosarcoma (United States).

PubMed

Bassin, Elise B; Wypij, David; Davis, Roger B; Mittleman, Murray A

2006-05-01

We explored age-specific and gender-specific effects of fluoride level in drinking water and the incidence of osteosarcoma. We used data from a matched case-control study conducted through 11 hospitals in the United States that included a complete residential history for each patient and type of drinking water (public, private well, bottled) used at each address. Our analysis was limited to cases less than 20 years old. We standardized fluoride exposure estimates based on CDC-recommended target levels that take climate into account. We categorized exposure into three groups (<30%, 30-99%, >99% of target) and used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios. Analysis is based on 103 cases under the age of 20 and 215 matched controls. For males, the unadjusted odds ratios for higher exposures were greater than 1.0 at each exposure age, reaching a peak of 4.07 (95% CI 1.43, 11.56) at age 7 years for the highest exposure. Adjusting for potential confounders produced similar results with an adjusted odds ratio for males of 5.46 (95% CI 1.50, 19.90) at age 7 years. This association was not apparent among females. Our exploratory analysis found an association between fluoride exposure in drinking water during childhood and the incidence of osteosarcoma among males but not consistently among females. Further research is required to confirm or refute this observation.

Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus).

PubMed

Mbizah, Moreangels M; Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J

2016-01-01

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6-24 months; 25-60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden's Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a moderately reliable method for estimating both chronological age and age class. This method gives a balance between accuracy, cost and practicability, therefore it is recommended when precise age estimations are not paramount.

Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus)

PubMed Central

Steenkamp, Gerhard; Groom, Rosemary J.

2016-01-01

African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i) counting cementum annuli (ii) pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height) (iv) tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio) (v) tooth weight and (vi) skull measurements (length, width and height). A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6–24 months; 25–60 months and > 60 months), with a McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a moderately reliable method for estimating both chronological age and age class. This method gives a balance between accuracy, cost and practicability, therefore it is recommended when precise age estimations are not paramount. PMID:27732663

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Zaba, Basia; Kasamba, Ivan; Floyd, Sian; Isingo, Raphael; Herbst, Kobus; Bärnighausen, Till; Gregson, Simon; Nyamukapa, Constance; Kayuni, Ndoliwe; Todd, Jim; Marston, Milly; Wringe, Alison

2012-08-01

To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Age, period and cohort effects on suicide mortality in Russia, 1956-2005.

PubMed

Jukkala, Tanya; Stickley, Andrew; Mäkinen, Ilkka Henrik; Baburin, Aleksei; Sparén, Pär

2017-03-07

Russian suicide mortality rates changed rapidly over the second half of the twentieth century. This study attempts to differentiate between underlying period and cohort effects in relation to the changes in suicide mortality in Russia between 1956 and 2005. Sex- and age-specific suicide mortality data were analyzed using an age-period-cohort (APC) approach. Descriptive analyses and APC modeling with log-linear Poisson regression were performed. Strong period effects were observed for the years during and after Gorbachev's political reforms (including the anti-alcohol campaign) and for those following the break-up of the Soviet Union. After mutual adjustment, the cohort- and period-specific relative risk estimates for suicide revealed differing underlying processes. While the estimated period effects had an overall positive trend, cohort-specific developments indicated a positive trend for the male cohorts born between 1891 and 1931 and for the female cohorts born between 1891 and 1911, but a negative trend for subsequent cohorts. Our results indicate that the specific life experiences of cohorts may be important for variations in suicide mortality across time, in addition to more immediate effects of changes in the social environment.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

Estimation of years lived with disability due to noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a population-representative survey

PubMed Central

Park, Ji In

2017-01-01

The Global Burden of Disease 2010 and the WHO Global Health Estimates of years lived with disability (YLDs) uses disability-weights obtained from lay health-state descriptions, which cannot fully reflect different disease manifestations, according to severity, treatment, and environment. The aim of this study was to provide population-representative YLDs of noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a prevalence-based approach, with the disability weight measured in subjects with specific diseases or injuries. We included a total of 44969 adults, who completed the EQ-5D questionnaire as participation in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2014. We estimated the prevalence of each of 40 conditions identified from the noncommunicable diseases and injuries in the WHO list. Modified condition-specific disability-weight was determined from the adjusted mean difference of the EQ-5D index between the condition and reference groups. Condition-specific YLDs were calculated as the condition’s prevalence multiplied by the condition’s disability-weight. All-cause YLDs, estimated as “number of population × (1 − mean score of EQ-5D)” were 2165 thousands in 39044 thousand adults aged ≥20. The combined YLDs for all 40 conditions accounted for 67.6% of all-cause YLDs, and were 1604, 2126, 8749, and 12847 per 100000 young (age 20−59) males, young females, old (age ≥60) males, and old females, respectively. Back pain/osteoarthritis YLDs were exceptionally large (442/40, 864/146, 2037/836, and 4644/3039 per 100000 young males, young females, old males, and old females, respectively). Back pain, osteoarthritis, depression, diabetes, periodontitis, and stroke accounted for 22.3%, 9.1%, 4.6%, 3.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% of all-cause YLDs, respectively. In conclusion, this estimation of YLDs using prevalence rates and disability-weights measured in a population-representative survey may form the basis for population-level strategies to prevent age-related worsening of disability. PMID:28196151

Nuclear constraints on the age of the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schramm, D. N.

1983-01-01

A review is made of how one can use nuclear physics to put rather stringent limits on the age of the universe and thus the cosmic distance scale. The age can be estimated to a fair degree of accuracy. No single measurement of the time since the Big Bang gives a specific, unambiguous age. There are several methods that together fix the age with surprising precision. In particular, there are three totally independent techniques for estimating an age and a fourth technique which involves finding consistency of the other three in the framework of the standard Big Bang cosmological model. The three independent methods are: cosmological dynamics, the age of the oldest stars, and radioactive dating. This paper concentrates on the third of the three methods, and the consistency technique. Previously announced in STAR as N83-34868

A Cohort Effect of the Sexual Revolution May Be Masking an Increase in Human Papillomavirus Detection at Menopause in the United States

PubMed Central

Gravitt, Patti E.; Rositch, Anne F.; Silver, Michelle I.; Marks, Morgan A.; Chang, Kathryn; Burke, Anne E.; Viscidi, Raphael P.

2013-01-01

Background. Cohort effects, new sex partnerships, and human papillomavirus (HPV) reactivation have been posited as explanations for the bimodal age-specific HPV prevalence observed in some populations; no studies have systematically evaluated the reasons for the lack of a second peak in the United States. Methods. A cohort of 843 women aged 35–60 years were enrolled into a 2-year, semiannual follow-up study. Age-specific HPV prevalence was estimated in strata defined by a lower risk of prior infection (<5 self-reported lifetime sex partners) and a higher risk of prior infection (≥5 lifetime sex partners). The interaction between age and lifetime sex partners was tested using likelihood ratio statistics. Population attributable risk (PAR) was estimated using Levin's formula. Results. The age-specific prevalence of 14 high-risk HPV genotypes (HR-HPV) declined with age among women with <5 lifetime sex partners but not among women with ≥5 lifetime sex partners (P = .01 for interaction). The PAR for HR-HPV due to ≥5 lifetime sex partners was higher among older women (87.2%), compared with younger women (28.0%). In contrast, the PAR associated with a new sex partner was 28% among women aged 35–49 years and 7.7% among women aged 50–60 years. Conclusions. A lower cumulative probability of HPV infection among women with a sexual debut before the sexual revolution may be masking an age-related increase in HPV reactivation in the United States. PMID:23242540

The Demirjian versus the Willems method for dental age estimation in different populations: A meta-analysis of published studies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background The accuracy of radiographic methods for dental age estimation is important for biological growth research and forensic applications. Accuracy of the two most commonly used systems (Demirjian and Willems) has been evaluated with conflicting results. This study investigates the accuracies of these methods for dental age estimation in different populations. Methods A search of PubMed, Scopus, Ovid, Database of Open Access Journals and Google Scholar was undertaken. Eligible studies published before December 28, 2016 were reviewed and analyzed. Meta-analysis was performed on 28 published articles using the Demirjian and/or Willems methods to estimate chronological age in 14,109 children (6,581 males, 7,528 females) age 3–18 years in studies using Demirjian’s method and 10,832 children (5,176 males, 5,656 females) age 4–18 years in studies using Willems’ method. The weighted mean difference at 95% confidence interval was used to assess accuracies of the two methods in predicting the chronological age. Results The Demirjian method significantly overestimated chronological age (p<0.05) in males age 3–15 and females age 4–16 when studies were pooled by age cohorts and sex. The majority of studies using Willems’ method did not report significant overestimation of ages in either sex. Overall, Demirjian’s method significantly overestimated chronological age compared to the Willems method (p<0.05). The weighted mean difference for the Demirjian method was 0.62 for males and 0.72 for females, while that of the Willems method was 0.26 for males and 0.29 for females. Conclusion The Willems method provides more accurate estimation of chronological age in different populations, while Demirjian’s method has a broad application in terms of determining maturity scores. However, accuracy of Demirjian age estimations is confounded by population variation when converting maturity scores to dental ages. For highest accuracy of age estimation, population-specific standards, rather than a universal standard or methods developed on other populations, need to be employed. PMID:29117240

Incidence of colorectal adenomas: birth cohort analysis among 4.3 million participants of screening colonoscopy.

PubMed

Brenner, Hermann; Altenhofen, Lutz; Stock, Christian; Hoffmeister, Michael

2014-09-01

Most colorectal cancers develop from adenomas. We aimed to estimate sex- and age-specific incidence rates of colorectal adenomas and to assess their potential implications for colorectal cancer screening strategies. Sex- and age-specific incidence rates of colorectal adenomas were derived by a birth cohort analysis using data from 4,322,085 screening colonoscopies conducted in Germany and recorded in a national database in 2003-2012. In addition, cumulative risks of colorectal cancer among colonoscopically neoplasm-free men and women were estimated by combining adenoma incidence rates with previously derived adenoma-colorectal cancer transition rates. Estimated annual incidence in percentage (95% confidence interval) in age groups 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, and 75-79 was 2.4 (2.2-2.6), 2.3 (2.1-2.6), 2.4 (2.1-2.6), 2.2 (1.8-2.5), and 1.8 (1.2-2.3) among men, and 1.4 (1.3-1.5), 1.5 (1.4-1.7), 1.6 (1.4-1.8), 1.6 (1.3-1.8), and 1.2 (0.8-1.6) among women. Estimated 10- and 15-year risks of clinically manifest colorectal cancer were 0.1% and 0.5% or lower, respectively, in all groups assessed. Annual incidence rates of colorectal adenomas are below 2.5% and 2% among men and women, respectively, and show little variation by age. Risk of clinically manifest colorectal cancer is expected to be very small within 10 years and beyond after negative colonoscopy for men and women at all ages. The use of rescreening after a negative screening colonoscopy above 60 years of age may be very limited. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Genetic influence on contrast sensitivity in middle-aged male twins.

PubMed

Cronin-Golomb, Alice; Panizzon, Matthew S; Lyons, Michael J; Franz, Carol E; Grant, Michael D; Jacobson, Kristen C; Eisen, Seth A; Laudate, Thomas M; Kremen, William S

2007-07-01

Contrast sensitivity is strongly associated with daily functioning among older adults, but the genetic and environmental contributions to this ability are unknown. Using the classical twin method, we addressed this issue by examining contrast sensitivity at five spatial frequencies (1.5-18 cycles per degree) in 718 middle-aged male twins from the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (VETSA). Heritability estimates were modest (14-38%), whereas individual-specific environmental influences accounted for 62-86% of the variance. Identifying the types of individual-specific events that impact contrast sensitivity may suggest interventions to modulate this ability and thereby improve overall quality of life as adults age.

Predictors of Depression and Musculoskeletal Disorder Related Work Disability Among Young, Middle-Aged, and Aging Employees.

PubMed

Ervasti, Jenni; Mattila-Holappa, Pauliina; Joensuu, Matti; Pentti, Jaana; Lallukka, Tea; Kivimäki, Mika; Vahtera, Jussi; Virtanen, Marianna

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the level and predictors of work disability in different age groups. We followed young (18 to 34 years), middle-aged (35 to 50 years), and aging (>50 years) employees (n = 70,417) for 7 years (2005 to 2011) for all-cause and cause-specific work disability (sickness absence and disability pension). Using negative binomial regression, we obtained both relative risk estimates and absolute rates, that is, days of work disability per person-year. The greatest relative difference in all-cause, and specifically depression-related work disability, was between young women and young men, and between employees with low versus high levels of education. Aging employees with a low education and chronic somatic disease had the highest levels of musculoskeletal disorder related work disability. The predictors of work disability vary by age and diagnosis. These results help target age-specific measures for the prevention of permanent work disability.

Neural network versus activity-specific prediction equations for energy expenditure estimation in children.

PubMed

Ruch, Nicole; Joss, Franziska; Jimmy, Gerda; Melzer, Katarina; Hänggi, Johanna; Mäder, Urs

2013-11-01

The aim of this study was to compare the energy expenditure (EE) estimations of activity-specific prediction equations (ASPE) and of an artificial neural network (ANNEE) based on accelerometry with measured EE. Forty-three children (age: 9.8 ± 2.4 yr) performed eight different activities. They were equipped with one tri-axial accelerometer that collected data in 1-s epochs and a portable gas analyzer. The ASPE and the ANNEE were trained to estimate the EE by including accelerometry, age, gender, and weight of the participants. To provide the activity-specific information, a decision tree was trained to recognize the type of activity through accelerometer data. The ASPE were applied to the activity-type-specific data recognized by the tree (Tree-ASPE). The Tree-ASPE precisely estimated the EE of all activities except cycling [bias: -1.13 ± 1.33 metabolic equivalent (MET)] and walking (bias: 0.29 ± 0.64 MET; P < 0.05). The ANNEE overestimated the EE of stationary activities (bias: 0.31 ± 0.47 MET) and walking (bias: 0.61 ± 0.72 MET) and underestimated the EE of cycling (bias: -0.90 ± 1.18 MET; P < 0.05). Biases of EE in stationary activities (ANNEE: 0.31 ± 0.47 MET, Tree-ASPE: 0.08 ± 0.21 MET) and walking (ANNEE 0.61 ± 0.72 MET, Tree-ASPE: 0.29 ± 0.64 MET) were significantly smaller in the Tree-ASPE than in the ANNEE (P < 0.05). The Tree-ASPE was more precise in estimating the EE than the ANNEE. The use of activity-type-specific information for subsequent EE prediction equations might be a promising approach for future studies.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

PubMed

Chen, Brian K; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-12-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.

Specific gravity and wood moisture variation of white pine

Treesearch

Glenn L. Gammon

1969-01-01

A report on results of a study to develop a means for estimating specific gravity and wood moisture content of white pine. No strong relationships were found by using either the single or combined factors of age and dimensional stem characteristics. Inconsistent patterns of specific gravity and moisture over height in tree are graphically illustrated.

US County-Level Trends in Mortality Rates for Major Causes of Death, 1980-2014.

PubMed

Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Stubbs, Rebecca W; Morozoff, Chloe; Kutz, Michael J; Huynh, Chantal; Barber, Ryan M; Shackelford, Katya A; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J; Flaxman, Abraham D; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H; Murray, Christopher J L

2016-12-13

County-level patterns in mortality rates by cause have not been systematically described but are potentially useful for public health officials, clinicians, and researchers seeking to improve health and reduce geographic disparities. To demonstrate the use of a novel method for county-level estimation and to estimate annual mortality rates by US county for 21 mutually exclusive causes of death from 1980 through 2014. Redistribution methods for garbage codes (implausible or insufficiently specific cause of death codes) and small area estimation methods (statistical methods for estimating rates in small subpopulations) were applied to death registration data from the National Vital Statistics System to estimate annual county-level mortality rates for 21 causes of death. These estimates were raked (scaled along multiple dimensions) to ensure consistency between causes and with existing national-level estimates. Geographic patterns in the age-standardized mortality rates in 2014 and in the change in the age-standardized mortality rates between 1980 and 2014 for the 10 highest-burden causes were determined. County of residence. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates. A total of 80 412 524 deaths were recorded from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014, in the United States. Of these, 19.4 million deaths were assigned garbage codes. Mortality rates were analyzed for 3110 counties or groups of counties. Large between-county disparities were evident for every cause, with the gap in age-standardized mortality rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentiles varying from 14.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases) to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cardiovascular diseases). Geographic regions with elevated mortality rates differed among causes: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality tended to be highest along the southern half of the Mississippi River, while mortality rates from self-harm and interpersonal violence were elevated in southwestern counties, and mortality rates from chronic respiratory disease were highest in counties in eastern Kentucky and western West Virginia. Counties also varied widely in terms of the change in cause-specific mortality rates between 1980 and 2014. For most causes (eg, neoplasms, neurological disorders, and self-harm and interpersonal violence), both increases and decreases in county-level mortality rates were observed. In this analysis of US cause-specific county-level mortality rates from 1980 through 2014, there were large between-county differences for every cause of death, although geographic patterns varied substantially by cause of death. The approach to county-level analyses with small area models used in this study has the potential to provide novel insights into US disease-specific mortality time trends and their differences across geographic regions.

What proportion of cancer deaths in the contemporary United States is attributable to cigarette smoking?

PubMed

Jacobs, Eric J; Newton, Christina C; Carter, Brian D; Feskanich, Diane; Freedman, Neal D; Prentice, Ross L; Flanders, W Dana

2015-03-01

The proportion of cancer deaths in the contemporary United States caused by cigarette smoking (the population attributable fraction [PAF]) is not well documented. The PAF of all cancer deaths due to active cigarette smoking among adults 35 years and older in the United States in 2010 was calculated using age- and sex-specific smoking prevalence from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and age- and sex-specific relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study-II (for ages 35-54 years) and from the Pooled Contemporary Cohort data set (for ages 55 years and older). The PAF for active cigarette smoking was 28.7% when estimated conservatively, including only deaths from the 12 cancers currently formally established as caused by smoking by the US Surgeon General. The PAF was 31.7% when estimated more comprehensively, including excess deaths from all cancers. These estimates do not include additional potential cancer deaths from environmental tobacco smoke or other type of tobacco use such as cigars, pipes, or smokeless tobacco. Cigarette smoking causes a large proportion of cancer deaths in the contemporary United States. Reducing smoking prevalence as rapidly as possible should be a top priority for the US public health efforts to prevent cancer deaths. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in Mexico: Past, Current and Future Prevalence and Incidence Rates

PubMed Central

Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

2015-01-01

Introduction Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. Methods We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960–2012), and birth-cohort (1920–1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010–2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Results Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65–68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57–59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960–2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7–22.5% by 2050, affecting 15–25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Conclusions Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. PMID:26546108

Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates.

PubMed

Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

2015-12-01

Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960-2012), and birth-cohort (1920-1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010-2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65-68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57-59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960-2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7-22.5% by 2050, affecting 15-25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Juvenile/mature wood transition in loblolly pine as defined by annual ring specific gravity, proportion of latewood, and microfibril angle

Treesearch

Alexander Clark; Richard F. Daniels; Lewis Jordan

2006-01-01

The length of juvenility or number of years a tree produces juvenile wood at a fixed height can be defined by the age of the wood at which properties change from juvenile to mature wood. This paper estimates the age of transition from juvenile to mature wood based on ring specific gravity (SG), proportion of annual ring in latewood, and ring average microfibril angle (...

Age-dependent radial increases in wood specific gravity of tropical pioneers in Costa Rica

Treesearch

Bruce G. Williamson; Michael C. Wiemann

2010-01-01

Wood specific gravity is the single best descriptor of wood functional properties and tree life-history traits, and it is the most important variable in estimating carbon stocks in forests. Tropical pioneer trees produce wood of increasing specific gravity across the trunk radius as they grow in stature. Here, we tested whether radial increases in wood specific gravity...

Methods for estimating heterocyclic amine concentrations in cooked meats in the US diet.

PubMed

Keating, G A; Bogen, K T

2001-01-01

Heterocyclic amines (HAs) are formed in numerous cooked foods commonly consumed in the diet. A method was developed to estimate dietary HA levels using HA concentrations in experimentally cooked meats reported in the literature and meat consumption data obtained from a national dietary survey. Cooking variables (meat internal temperature and weight loss, surface temperature and time) were used to develop relationships for estimating total HA concentrations in six meat types. Concentrations of five individual HAs were estimated for specific meat type/cooking method combinations based on linear regression of total and individual HA values obtained from the literature. Using these relationships, total and individual HA concentrations were estimated for 21 meat type/cooking method combinations at four meat doneness levels. Reported consumption of the 21 meat type/cooking method combinations was obtained from a national dietary survey and the age-specific daily HA intake calculated using the estimated HA concentrations (ng/g) and reported meat intakes. Estimated mean daily total HA intakes for children (to age 15 years) and adults (30+ years) were 11 and 7.0 ng/kg/day, respectively, with 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP) estimated to comprise approximately 65% of each intake. Pan-fried meats were the largest source of HA in the diet and chicken the largest source of HAs among the different meat types.

Diagnostic accuracy of fundal height and handheld ultrasound-measured abdominal circumference to screen for fetal growth abnormalities

PubMed Central

Haragan, Adriane F.; Hulsey, Thomas C.; Hawk, Angela F.; Newman, Roger B.; Chang, Eugene Y.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE We sought to compare fundal height and handheld ultrasound–measured fetal abdominal circumference (HHAC) for the prediction of fetal growth restriction (FGR) or large for gestational age. STUDY DESIGN This was a diagnostic accuracy study in nonanomalous singleton pregnancies between 24 and 40 weeks’ gestation. Patients underwent HHAC and fundal height measurement prior to formal growth ultrasound. FGR was defined as estimated fetal weight less than 10%, whereas large for gestational age was defined as estimated fetal weight greater than 90%. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated and compared using methods described elsewhere. RESULTS There were 251 patients included in this study. HHAC had superior sensitivity and specificity for the detection of FGR (sensitivity, 100% vs 42.86%) and (specificity, 92.62% vs 85.24%). HHAC had higher specificity but lower sensitivity when screening for LGA (specificity, 85.66% vs 66.39%) and (sensitivity, 57.14% vs 71.43%). CONCLUSION HHAC could prove to be a valuable screening tool in the detection of FGR. Further studies are needed in a larger population. PMID:25818672

Age and growth of round gobies in Lake Michigan, with preliminary mortality estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huo, Bin; Madenjian, Charles P.; Xie, Cong X.; Zhao, Yingming; O'Brien, Timothy P.; Czesny, Sergiusz J.

2015-01-01

The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is a prevalent invasive species throughout Lake Michigan, as well as other Laurentian Great Lakes, yet little information is available on spatial variation in round goby growth within one body of water. Age and growth of round goby at three areas of Lake Michigan were studied by otolith analysis from a sample of 659 specimens collected from 2008 to 2012. Total length (TL) ranged from 48 to 131 mm for Sturgeon Bay, from 50 to 125 mm for Waukegan, and from 54 to 129 mm for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Ages ranged from 2 to 7 years for Sturgeon Bay, from 2 to 5 years for Waukegan, and from 2 to 6 years for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Area-specific and sex-specific body–otolith relationships were used to back-calculate estimates of total length at age, which were fitted to von Bertalanffy models to estimate growth rates. For both sexes, round gobies at Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan grew significantly faster than those at Sturgeon Bay. However, round goby growth did not significantly differ between Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan for either sex. At all three areas of Lake Michigan, males grew significantly faster than females. Based on catch curve analysis, estimates of annual mortality rates ranged from 0.79 to 0.84. These relatively high mortality rates suggested that round gobies may be under predatory control in Lake Michigan.

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods

PubMed Central

Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate (λ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism’s life history type and the true values of λ. In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ. Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ. To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses. PMID:29085763

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami; Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate ( λ ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism's life history type and the true values of λ . In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ . Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ . To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses.

Estimating comparable English healthcare costs for multiple diseases and unrelated future costs for use in health and public health economic modelling.

PubMed

Briggs, Adam D M; Scarborough, Peter; Wolstenholme, Jane

2018-01-01

Healthcare interventions, and particularly those in public health may affect multiple diseases and significantly prolong life. No consensus currently exists for how to estimate comparable healthcare costs across multiple diseases for use in health and public health cost-effectiveness models. We aim to describe a method for estimating comparable disease specific English healthcare costs as well as future healthcare costs from diseases unrelated to those modelled. We use routine national datasets including programme budgeting data and cost curves from NHS England to estimate annual per person costs for diseases included in the PRIMEtime model as well as age and sex specific costs due to unrelated diseases. The 2013/14 annual cost to NHS England per prevalent case varied between £3,074 for pancreatic cancer and £314 for liver disease. Costs due to unrelated diseases increase with age except for a secondary peak at 30-34 years for women reflecting maternity resource use. The methodology described allows health and public health economic modellers to estimate comparable English healthcare costs for multiple diseases. This facilitates the direct comparison of different health and public health interventions enabling better decision making.

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

Life histories and conservation of long-lived reptiles, an illustration with the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs-Gonzalez, Venetia; Bonefant, Christophe; Basille, Mathieu; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Beauchamp, Jeff; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Successful species conservation is dependent on adequate estimates of population dynamics, but age-specific demographics are generally lacking for many long-lived iteroparous species such as large reptiles. Accurate demographic information allows estimation of population growth rate, as well as projection of future population sizes and quantitative analyses of fitness trade-offs involved in the evolution of life-history strategies.Here, a long-term capture–recapture study was conducted from 1978 to 2014 on the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida. Over the study period, 7,427 hatchlings were marked and 380 individuals were recaptured for as many as 25 years. We estimated survival to be strongly age dependent with hatchlings having the lowest survival rates (16%) but increasing to nearly 90% at adulthood based on mark–recapture models. More than 5% of the female population were predicted to be reproductive by age 8 years; the age-specific proportion of reproductive females steadily increased until age 18 when more than 95% of females were predicted to be reproductive. Population growth rate, estimated from a Leslie–Lefkovitch stage-class model, showed a positive annual growth rate of 4% over the study period.Using a prospective sensitivity analysis, we revealed that the adult stage, as expected, was the most critical stage for population growth rate; however, the survival of younger crocodiles before they became reproductive also had a surprisingly high elasticity. We found that variation in age-specific fecundity has very limited impact on population growth rate in American crocodiles.We used a comparative approach to show that the original life-history strategy of American crocodiles is actually shared by other large, long-lived reptiles: while adult survival rates always have a large impact on population growth, this decreases with declining increasing growth rates, in favour of a higher elasticity of the juvenile stage.Crocodiles, as a long-lived and highly fecund species, deviate from the usual association of life histories of “slow” species. Current management practices are focused on nests and hatchling survival; however, protection efforts that extend to juvenile crocodiles would be most effective for conservation of the species, especially in an ever-developing landscape.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2018

PubMed Central

Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Eun Sook

2018-01-01

Purpose This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2018 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden. Materials and Methods Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2015 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2016 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly, we only used the data of the latest trend. Results A total of 204,909 new cancer cases and 82,155 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2018. The most common cancer sites were lung, followed by stomach, colorectal, breast and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For mortality, the most common sites were lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, stomach and pancreas. Conclusion The incidence rate of all cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually, mainly due to decrease of thyroid cancer. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluation of cancer-control programs. PMID:29566480

Gender-specific estimates of COPD prevalence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ntritsos, Georgios; Franek, Jacob; Belbasis, Lazaros; Christou, Maria A; Markozannes, Georgios; Altman, Pablo; Fogel, Robert; Sayre, Tobias; Ntzani, Evangelia E; Evangelou, Evangelos

2018-01-01

COPD has been perceived as being a disease of older men. However, >7 million women are estimated to live with COPD in the USA alone. Despite a growing body of literature suggesting an increasing burden of COPD in women, the evidence is limited. To assess and synthesize the available evidence among population-based epidemiologic studies and calculate the global prevalence of COPD in men and women. A systematic review and meta-analysis reporting gender-specific prevalence of COPD was undertaken. Gender-specific prevalence estimates were abstracted from relevant studies. Associated patient characteristics as well as custom variables pertaining to the diagnostic method and other important epidemiologic covariates were also collected. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was performed investigating gender-specific prevalence of COPD stratified by age, geography, calendar time, study setting, diagnostic method, and disease severity. Among 194 eligible studies, summary prevalence was 9.23% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 8.16%-10.36%) in men and 6.16% (95% CrI: 5.41%-6.95%) in women. Gender prevalences varied widely by the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease subregions, with the highest female prevalence found in North America (8.07% vs 7.30%) and in participants in urban settings (13.03% vs 8.34%). Meta-regression indicated that age ≥40 and bronchodilator testing contributed most significantly to heterogeneity of prevalence estimates across studies. We conducted the largest ever systematic review and meta-analysis of global prevalence of COPD and the first large gender-specific review. These results will increase awareness of COPD as a critical woman's health issue.

A new metric of inclusive fitness predicts the human mortality profile.

PubMed

Newman, Saul J; Easteal, Simon

2015-01-01

Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.

Herpes zoster vaccine (HZV): utilization and coverage 2009 - 2013, Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Liu, Xianfang C; Simmonds, Kimberley A; Russell, Margaret L; Svenson, Lawrence W

2014-10-23

Herpes zoster vaccine (HZV) is not publicly funded in the province of Alberta, Canada. We estimated vaccine coverage among those aged 60 years or older for 2013, as well as vaccine utilization rates per hundred thousand population over the period 2009 - 2013. We explored for factors associated with HZV dispensing rates. We used administrative data from the Alberta Pharmaceutical Information Network (PIN) database to identify unique persons for whom HZV had been dispensed from community pharmacies over 2009 - 2013. PIN data were also used to estimate the pharmacy/population ratios for rural and urban Alberta over the period. Denominators for rates were estimated using mid-year population estimates from the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan Registry. Income quintile data were estimated from the 2006 Census of Canada. Crude, age, sex, geographic (rural vs. urban), income-quintile and year specific rates of HZV vaccine dispensing were estimated per 100,000 population. Rates were adjusted for pharmacy/population ratio. Vaccine coverage for persons aged 60 years or older was estimated using counts of all unique persons for whom the vaccine was dispensed over the period in the numerator and a 2013 mid- year population denominator. HZV dispensing rates rose annually from 2009 - 2013. Vaccine coverage was estimated to be 8.4% among persons aged 60 years or older. Rates of dispensing were highest for persons aged 60-69 years and were higher for females than males and for persons from higher compared to lower income quintiles. Dispensing rates were lower for rural than for urban residents. About 2% of vaccine was dispensed for persons aged less than 50 years. Rates of HZV dispensing are increasing rapidly in Alberta despite a lack of public funding. A small proportion of the vaccine may be dispensed off-label.

Estimating the under-reporting of norovirus illness in Germany utilizing enhanced awareness of diarrhoea during a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O104:H4 in 2011 – a time series analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Laboratory-confirmed norovirus illness is reportable in Germany since 2001. Reported case numbers are known to be undercounts, and a valid estimate of the actual incidence in Germany does not exist. An increase of reported norovirus illness was observed simultaneously to a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O104:H4 in Germany in 2011 – likely due to enhanced (but not complete) awareness of diarrhoea at that time. We aimed at estimating age- and sex-specific factors of that excess, which should be interpretable as (minimal) under-reporting factors of norovirus illness in Germany. Methods We used national reporting data on laboratory-confirmed norovirus illness in Germany from calendar week 31 in 2003 through calendar week 30 in 2012. A negative binomial time series regression model was used to describe the weekly counts in 8∙2 age-sex strata while adjusting for secular trend and seasonality. Overall as well as age- and sex-specific factors for the excess were estimated by including additional terms (either an O104:H4 outbreak period indicator or a triple interaction term between outbreak period, age and sex) in the model. Results We estimated the overall under-reporting factor to be 1.76 (95% CI 1.28-2.41) for the first three weeks of the outbreak before the outbreak vehicle was publicly communicated. Highest under-reporting factors were here estimated for 20–29 year-old males (2.88, 95% CI 2.01-4.11) and females (2.67, 95% CI 1.87-3.79). Under-reporting was substantially lower in persons aged <10 years and 70 years or older. Conclusions These are the first estimates of (minimal) under-reporting factors for norovirus illness in Germany. They provide a starting point for a more detailed investigation of the relationship between actual incidence and reporting incidence of norovirus illness in Germany. PMID:24580831

Incidence of breast cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis after the initiation of a population-based mammography screening program.

PubMed

Coldman, Andrew; Phillips, Norm

2013-07-09

There has been growing interest in the overdiagnosis of breast cancer as a result of mammography screening. We report incidence rates in British Columbia before and after the initiation of population screening and provide estimates of overdiagnosis. We obtained the numbers of breast cancer diagnoses from the BC Cancer Registry and screening histories from the Screening Mammography Program of BC for women aged 30-89 years between 1970 and 2009. We calculated age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ. We compared these rates by age, calendar period and screening participation. We obtained 2 estimates of overdiagnosis from cumulative cancer rates among women between the ages of 40 and 89 years: the first estimate compared participants with nonparticipants; the second estimate compared observed and predicted population rates. We calculated participation-based estimates of overdiagnosis to be 5.4% for invasive disease alone and 17.3% when ductal carcinoma in situ was included. The corresponding population-based estimates were -0.7% and 6.7%. Participants had higher rates of invasive cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ than nonparticipants but lower rates after screening stopped. Population incidence rates for invasive cancer increased after 1980; by 2009, they had returned to levels similar to those of the 1970s among women under 60 years of age but remained elevated among women 60-79 years old. Rates of ductal carcinoma in situ increased in all age groups. The extent of overdiagnosis of invasive cancer in our study population was modest and primarily occurred among women over the age of 60 years. However, overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ was elevated for all age groups. The estimation of overdiagnosis from observational data is complex and subject to many influences. The use of mammography screening in older women has an increased risk of overdiagnosis, which should be considered in screening decisions.

Respiratory and other health effects reported in children exposed to the World Trade Center disaster of 11 September 2001.

PubMed

Thomas, Pauline A; Brackbill, Robert; Thalji, Lisa; DiGrande, Laura; Campolucci, Sharon; Thorpe, Lorna; Henning, Kelly

2008-10-01

Effects of the World Trade Center (WTC) disaster on children's respiratory health have not been definitively established. This report describes respiratory health findings among children who were < 18 years of age on 11 September 2001 (9/11) and examine associations between disaster-related exposures and respiratory health. Children recruited for the WTC Health Registry (WTCHR) included child residents and students (kindergarten through 12th grade) in Manhattan south of Canal Street, children who were south of Chambers Street on 9/11, and adolescent disaster-related workers or volunteers. We collected data via computer-assisted telephone interviews in 2003-2004, with interview by adult proxy for children still < 18 years of age at that time. We compared age-specific asthma prevalence with National Health Interview Survey estimates. Among 3,184 children enrolled, 28% were < 5 years of age on 9/11; 34%, 5-11 years; and 39%, 12-17 years. Forty-five percent had a report of dust cloud exposure on 9/11. Half (53%) reported at least one new or worsened respiratory symptom, and 5.7% reported new asthma diagnoses. Before 9/11, age-specific asthma prevalence in enrolled children was similar to national estimates, but prevalence at interview was elevated among enrollees < 5 years of age. Dust cloud exposure was associated with new asthma diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio = 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.5). Asthma prevalence after 9/11 among WTCHR enrollees < 5 years of age was higher than national estimates, and new asthma diagnosis was associated with dust cloud exposure in all age groups. We will determine severity of asthma and persistence of other respiratory symptoms on follow-up surveys.

Age-specific MRI brain and head templates for healthy adults from 20 through 89 years of age

PubMed Central

Fillmore, Paul T.; Phillips-Meek, Michelle C.; Richards, John E.

2015-01-01

This study created and tested a database of adult, age-specific MRI brain and head templates. The participants included healthy adults from 20 through 89 years of age. The templates were done in five-year, 10-year, and multi-year intervals from 20 through 89 years, and consist of average T1W for the head and brain, and segmenting priors for gray matter (GM), white matter (WM), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). It was found that age-appropriate templates provided less biased tissue classification estimates than age-inappropriate reference data and reference data based on young adult templates. This database is available for use by other investigators and clinicians for their MRI studies, as well as other types of neuroimaging and electrophysiological research.1 PMID:25904864

Lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive men and women in the United States.

PubMed

Basu, Rituparna; Krueger, Patrick M; Lairson, David R; Franzini, Luisa

2011-01-01

Our objective was to estimate lifetime medical expenditures that can be attributed to hypertension, by gender, in the United States, given important gender differences in both survival and medical expenditures. We estimated lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive and nonhypertensive men and women aged 20 and older. Expenditures were estimated from the 2001 to 2004 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and life expectancies were estimated from the 1986 to 2002 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files. Assuming that medical technology, the cost of health care services, the incidence of disease, and survival were fixed, the cross-sectional age-specific expenditures and the survival profiles were used to estimate the lifetime expenditures from ages 20 to older than 85. The estimated lifetime expenditure for an average life table individual at age 20 was $188,300 for hypertensive men and $254,910 for hypertensive women; however, a greater share of lifetime expenditures can be attributed to hypertension among men ($88,033) than among women ($40,960). Although hypertensive women had greater lifetime expenditures than hypertensive men, hypertension was associated with a greater increase in lifetime expenditures for men than for women. Gender differences in both survival and health care utilization have important implications for gender differences in lifetime medical expenditures. Copyright © 2011 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. All rights reserved.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

2015-01-10

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical model of ruminant adipose tissue metabolism in relation to the whole animal.

PubMed

Baldwin, R L; Yang, Y T; Crist, K; Grichting, G

1976-09-01

Based on theoretical considerations and experimental data, estimates of contributions of adipose tissue to energy expenditures in a lactating cow and a growing steer were developed. The estimates indicate that adipose energy expenditures range between 5 and 10% of total animal heat production dependent on productive function and diet. These energy expenditures can be partitioned among maintenance (3%), lipogenesis (1-5%) and lipolysis and triglyceride resynthesis (less thatn 1.0%). Specific sites at which acute and chronic effectors can act to produce changes in adipose function, and changes in adipose function produced by diet and during pregnancy, lactation and aging were discussed with emphasis being placed on the need for additional, definitive studies of specific interactions among pregnancy, diet, age, lactation and growth in producing ruminants.

Determinants of consumption-day amounts applicable for the estimation of usual dietary intake with a short 24-h food list.

PubMed

Freese, Johanna; Pricop-Jeckstadt, Mihaela; Heuer, Thorsten; Clemens, Matthias; Boeing, Heiner; Knüppel, Sven; Nöthlings, Ute

2016-01-01

Next to the information on frequency of food consumption, information on consumption-day amounts is important to estimate usual dietary intake in epidemiological studies. Our objective was to identify determinants of consumption-day amounts to derive person-specific standard consumption-day amounts applicable for the estimation of usual dietary intake using separate sources to assesss information on consumption probability and amount consumed. 24-h Dietary recall data from the German National Nutrition Survey II ( n  = 8522; aged 20-80 years) conducted between 2005 and 2007 were analysed for determinants of consumption-day amounts of thirty-eight food and beverage groups using LASSO variable selection for linear mixed-effects models. Determinants included sex, age, BMI, smoking status, years of education, household net income, living status and employment status. Most often, sex, age and smoking status were selected as predictors for consumption-day amounts across thirty-eight food groups. In contrast, living with a partner, employment status and household net income were less frequently chosen. Overall, different determinants were of relevance for different food groups. The number of selected determinants ranged from eight for coffee and juice to zero for cabbage, tea, root vegetables, leafy vegetables, fruit vegetables, legumes, offal, vegetable oils, and other fats. For the estimation of usual dietary intake in a combined approach with a 24-h food list, person-specific standard consumption-day amounts could be used. Sex, age and smoking status were shown to be the most relevant predictors in our analysis. Their impact on the estimation of usual dietary intake needs to be evaluated in future studies.

Genetic Influence on Contrast Sensitivity in Middle-Aged Male Twins

PubMed Central

Cronin-Golomb, Alice; Panizzon, Matthew S.; Lyons, Michael J.; Franz, Carol E.; Grant, Michael D.; Jacobson, Kristen C.; Eisen, Seth A.; Laudate, Thomas M.; Kremen, William S.

2007-01-01

Contrast sensitivity is strongly associated with daily functioning among older adults, but the genetic and environmental contributions to this ability are unknown. Using the classical twin method, we addressed this issue by examining contrast sensitivity at five spatial frequencies (1.5–18 cycles per degree) in 718 middle-aged male twins from the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (VETSA). Heritability estimates were modest (14%–38%), whereas individual-specific environmental influences accounted for 62%–86% of the variance. Identifying the types of individual-specific events that impact contrast sensitivity may suggest interventions to modulate this ability and thereby improve overall quality of life as adults age. PMID:17604073

Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790-1900.

PubMed

Hacker, J David

2010-04-01

This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900-02 rural and 1900-02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends.

Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA)–Based Population Screening for Prostate Cancer: An Economic Analysis

PubMed Central

Tawfik, A

2015-01-01

Background The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood test has become widely used in Canada to test for prostate cancer (PC), the most common cancer among Canadian men. Data suggest that population-based PSA screening may not improve overall survival. Objectives This analysis aimed to review existing economic evaluations of population-based PSA screening, determine current spending on opportunistic PSA screening in Ontario, and estimate the cost of introducing a population-based PSA screening program in the province. Methods A systematic literature search was performed to identify economic evaluations of population-based PSA screening strategies published from 1998 to 2013. Studies were assessed for their methodological quality and applicability to the Ontario setting. An original cost analysis was also performed, using data from Ontario administrative sources and from the published literature. One-year costs were estimated for 4 strategies: no screening, current (opportunistic) screening of men aged 40 years and older, current (opportunistic) screening of men aged 50 to 74 years, and population-based screening of men aged 50 to 74 years. The analysis was conducted from the payer perspective. Results The literature review demonstrated that, overall, population-based PSA screening is costly and cost-ineffective but may be cost-effective in specific populations. Only 1 Canadian study, published 15 years ago, was identified. Approximately $119.2 million is being spent annually on PSA screening of men aged 40 years and older in Ontario, including close to $22 million to screen men younger than 50 and older than 74 years of age (i.e., outside the target age range for a population-based program). A population-based screening program in Ontario would cost approximately $149.4 million in the first year. Limitations Estimates were based on the synthesis of data from a variety of sources, requiring several assumptions and causing uncertainty in the results. For example, where Ontario-specific data were unavailable, data from the United States were used. Conclusions PSA screening is associated with significant costs to the health care system when the cost of the PSA test itself is considered in addition to the costs of diagnosis, staging, and treatment of screen-detected PCs. PMID:26366237

Occupational exposures and asthma in 14,000 adults from the general population

PubMed Central

Le Moual, Nicole; Kennedy, Susan M.; Kauffmann, Francine

2004-01-01

The association of occupational exposures and asthma were studied in 14151 adults, aged 25–59 years, from the general population of the French PAARC (Pollution Atmospherique et Affections Respiratoires Chroniques, 1975) Survey. Associations of asthma to specific jobs such as personal care workers, waiters, stock clerks were observed, with age, sex, smoking adjusted odds ratios between 1.5 and 1.7. Exposures to 18 asthmagenic agents (low, high molecular weight and mixed environment) were estimated by an asthma-specific job exposure matrix. Risks associated with asthma increased when excluding subjects with imprecise estimates of exposure. Risks further increased when increasing specificity of the definition of asthma considering jobs or specific agents such as industrial cleaning agents, latex, flour, highly reactive chemicals, and textiles. For example, for industrial cleaning agents, odds ratios increased from 1.55 (95% CI: 1.08, 2.23) for ever asthma, to 2.51 (95% CI: 1.33, 4.75) for asthma with airflow limitation, to 2.17 (95% CI: 1.41, 3.34) for asthma onset after age 14, and to 2.35 (95% CI: 1.38, 4.00) for asthma onset after beginning of current job. Results underlined the importance of the specificity of exposure and asthma definitions and indicated a deleterious role of occupational exposure on asthma, especially for cleaning agents. PMID:15561990

Russia-specific relative risks and their effects on the estimated alcohol-attributable burden of disease.

PubMed

Shield, Kevin D; Rehm, Jürgen

2015-05-10

Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease globally. This burden is estimated using Relative Risk (RR) functions for alcohol from meta-analyses that use data from all countries; however, for Russia and surrounding countries, country-specific risk data may need to be used. The objective of this paper is to compare the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using Russia-specific alcohol RRs with the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using alcohol RRs from meta-analyses. Data for 2012 on drinking indicators were calculated based on the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Data for 2012 on mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost by cause were obtained by country from the World Health Organization. Alcohol Population-Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on a risk modelling methodology from Russia. These PAFs were compared to PAFs calculated using methods applied for all other countries. The 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the alcohol PAFs were calculated using a Monte Carlo-like method. Using Russia-specific alcohol RR functions, in Russia in 2012 alcohol caused an estimated 231,900 deaths (95% UI: 185,600 to 278,200) (70,800 deaths among women and 161,100 deaths among men) and 13,295,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 11,242,000 to 15,348,000) (3,670,000 DALYs lost among women and 9,625,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age. This compares to an estimated 165,600 deaths (95% UI: 97,200 to 228,100) (29,700 deaths among women and 135,900 deaths among men) and 10,623,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 7,265,000 to 13,754,000) (1,783,000 DALYs lost among women and 8,840,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age caused by alcohol when non-Russia-specific alcohol RRs were used. Results indicate that if the Russia-specific RRs are used when estimating the health burden attributable to alcohol consumption in Russia, then the total estimated burden will be more than if RRs from meta-analyses are used. Furthermore, additional research is needed to understand which aspects of the Russian style of drinking cause the most harm.

Incidence of dementia in elderly Latin Americans: Results of the Maracaibo Aging Study.

PubMed

Maestre, Gladys E; Mena, Luis J; Melgarejo, Jesus D; Aguirre-Acevedo, Daniel C; Pino-Ramírez, Gloria; Urribarrí, Milady; Chacon, Inara J; Chávez, Carlos A; Falque-Madrid, Luis; Gaona, Ciro A; Terwilliger, Joseph D; Lee, Joseph H; Scarmeas, Nikolaos

2018-02-01

There are few longitudinal studies of dementia in developing countries. We used longitudinal data from the Maracaibo Aging Study to accurately determine the age- and sex-specific incidence of dementia in elderly Latin Americans. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fourth Edition, Text Revision) was used to diagnose dementia, which was classified as Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, or other. Age- and sex-specific incidence was estimated as the number of new cases of dementia divided by person-years (p-y) of follow-up. The incidence of all dementia diagnoses was 9.10 per 1000 p-y (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.13-11.44; 8026 total p-y), 5.18 for Alzheimer's disease (95% CI 3.72-7.03; 7916 total p-y), and 3.35 for vascular dementia (95% CI 2.19-4.91; 7757 total p-y). Among Maracaibo Aging Study participants younger than 65 years, the incidence of dementia was higher than that of US Whites. Among individuals older than 65 years, the incidence was comparable to the mean of previous incidence estimates for other populations worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age at exposure to ionising radiation and cancer mortality among Hanford workers: follow up through 1994

PubMed Central

Wing, S; Richardson, D

2005-01-01

Background: Studies of workers at the plutonium production factory in Hanford, WA have led to conflicting conclusions about the role of age at exposure as a modifier of associations between ionising radiation and cancer. Aims: To evaluate the influence of age at exposure on radiation risk estimates in an updated follow up of Hanford workers. Methods: A cohort of 26 389 workers hired between 1944 and 1978 was followed through 1994 to ascertain vital status and causes of death. External radiation dose estimates were derived from personal dosimeters. Poisson regression was used to estimate associations between mortality and cumulative external radiation dose at all ages, and in specific age ranges. Results: A total of 8153 deaths were identified, 2265 of which included cancer as an underlying or contributory cause. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Sievert (ERR/Sv) for cumulative radiation doses at all ages combined were negative for all cause and leukaemia and positive for all cancer and lung cancer. Cumulative doses accrued at ages below 35, 35–44, and 45–54 showed little association with mortality. For cumulative dose accrued at ages 55 and above (10 year lag), the estimated ERR/Sv for all cancers was 3.24 (90% CI: 0.80 to 6.17), primarily due to an association with lung cancer (ERR/Sv: 9.05, 90% CI: 2.96 to 17.92). Conclusions: Associations between radiation and cancer mortality in this cohort are primarily a function of doses at older ages and deaths from lung cancer. The association of older age radiation exposures and cancer mortality is similar to observations from several other occupational studies. PMID:15961623

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian K.; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-01-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. PMID:28580275

Estimating the force of measles virus infection from hospitalised cases in Lusaka, Zambia.

PubMed

Scott, Susana; Mossong, Joel; Moss, William J; Cutts, Felicity T; Kasolo, Francis; Sinkala, Moses; Cousens, Simon

2004-12-21

Estimates of the force of infection (the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection) are essential for modelling the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and can be a useful tool in evaluating mass vaccination strategies. Few estimates exist of the force of infection of measles virus in sub-Saharan Africa. A mathematical model was applied to age-specific recorded hospital admissions between September 1996 and September 1999 to estimate the force of measles virus infection in Lusaka, Zambia. The average force of infection was estimated to be 20% per year (95% confidence intervals (CI) 16.5, 23.5) which was insensitive to varying assumptions about vaccine coverage. The force of infection varied from year to year (P < 0.001) reflecting the cyclic pattern of measles incidence. The estimated probability of a case being hospitalised decreased with age, consistent with less severe disease in older children. Estimates of the force of infection using routinely available data were consistent with those based upon serological surveys in other sub-Saharan African countries.

Automated Assessment of Child Vocalization Development Using LENA.

PubMed

Richards, Jeffrey A; Xu, Dongxin; Gilkerson, Jill; Yapanel, Umit; Gray, Sharmistha; Paul, Terrance

2017-07-12

To produce a novel, efficient measure of children's expressive vocal development on the basis of automatic vocalization assessment (AVA), child vocalizations were automatically identified and extracted from audio recordings using Language Environment Analysis (LENA) System technology. Assessment was based on full-day audio recordings collected in a child's unrestricted, natural language environment. AVA estimates were derived using automatic speech recognition modeling techniques to categorize and quantify the sounds in child vocalizations (e.g., protophones and phonemes). These were expressed as phone and biphone frequencies, reduced to principal components, and inputted to age-based multiple linear regression models to predict independently collected criterion-expressive language scores. From these models, we generated vocal development AVA estimates as age-standardized scores and development age estimates. AVA estimates demonstrated strong statistical reliability and validity when compared with standard criterion expressive language assessments. Automated analysis of child vocalizations extracted from full-day recordings in natural settings offers a novel and efficient means to assess children's expressive vocal development. More research remains to identify specific mechanisms of operation.

A random cluster survey and a convenience sample give comparable estimates of immunity to vaccine preventable diseases in children of school age in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Kelly, Heath; Riddell, Michaela A; Gidding, Heather F; Nolan, Terry; Gilbert, Gwendolyn L

2002-08-19

We compared estimates of the age-specific population immunity to measles, mumps, rubella, hepatitis B and varicella zoster viruses in Victorian school children obtained by a national sero-survey, using a convenience sample of residual sera from diagnostic laboratories throughout Australia, with those from a three-stage random cluster survey. When grouped according to school age (primary or secondary school) there was no significant difference in the estimates of immunity to measles, mumps, hepatitis B or varicella. Compared with the convenience sample, the random cluster survey estimated higher immunity to rubella in samples from both primary (98.7% versus 93.6%, P = 0.002) and secondary school students (98.4% versus 93.2%, P = 0.03). Despite some limitations, this study suggests that the collection of a convenience sample of sera from diagnostic laboratories is an appropriate sampling strategy to provide population immunity data that will inform Australia's current and future immunisation policies. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery

PubMed Central

Birrell, F.; Johnell, O.; Silman, A.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades
METHODS—Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced guidelines.
RESULTS—Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this further—up to double the current number.
CONCLUSION—A sharp rise in hip replacements will be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.

 PMID:10460191

Accuracy in the legal age estimation according to the third molars mineralization among Mexicans and Columbians.

PubMed

Costa, José; Montero, Javier; Serrano, Sarai; Albaladejo, Alberto; López-Valverde, Antonio; Bica, Isabel

2014-11-01

This study aims to assess the accuracy of age estimation according to two cut-off points of Demirjian's developmental stages (G and H) in the wisdom teeth, using panoramic radiographs from Colombian and Mexican teenagers. The degree of maturation of the third molars was classified according to Demirjian in 8 stages (from A to H) by a blinded trained assessor. The sensitivity, specificity and efficacy of two cut-off points (G and H) were calculated for both samples. The orthopantomographies of 316 subjects, 171 Colombians (54.1%) and 145 Mexicans (45.9%), were analyzed. The stage H was found to be the best threshold for detecting juveniles (because the high specificity) in all the third molars assessed. The specificity was higher for lower third molars than for upper third molars, but no asymmetrical discrepancy was noted. The stage H is the best cut-off point for detecting the adulthood when a high-specificity test is required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Validity and reliability of dental age estimation of teeth root translucency based on digital luminance determination.

PubMed

Ramsthaler, Frank; Kettner, Mattias; Verhoff, Marcel A

2014-01-01

In forensic anthropological casework, estimating age-at-death is key to profiling unknown skeletal remains. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability of a new, simple, fast, and inexpensive digital odontological method for age-at-death estimation. The method is based on the original Lamendin method, which is a widely used technique in the repertoire of odontological aging methods in forensic anthropology. We examined 129 single root teeth employing a digital camera and imaging software for the measurement of the luminance of the teeth's translucent root zone. Variability in luminance detection was evaluated using statistical technical error of measurement analysis. The method revealed stable values largely unrelated to observer experience, whereas requisite formulas proved to be camera-specific and should therefore be generated for an individual recording setting based on samples of known chronological age. Multiple regression analysis showed a highly significant influence of the coefficients of the variables "arithmetic mean" and "standard deviation" of luminance for the regression formula. For the use of this primer multivariate equation for age-at-death estimation in casework, a standard error of the estimate of 6.51 years was calculated. Step-by-step reduction of the number of embedded variables to linear regression analysis employing the best contributor "arithmetic mean" of luminance yielded a regression equation with a standard error of 6.72 years (p < 0.001). The results of this study not only support the premise of root translucency as an age-related phenomenon, but also demonstrate that translucency reflects a number of other influencing factors in addition to age. This new digital measuring technique of the zone of dental root luminance can broaden the array of methods available for estimating chronological age, and furthermore facilitate measurement and age classification due to its low dependence on observer experience.

Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050.

PubMed

Fontaine, Kevin R; Haaz, Steffany; Heo, Moonseong

2007-05-01

Using population-based survey data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), we estimated the population prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis in the US from 2005 to 2050. Projected arthritis-prevalence data were estimated in 5-year increments along sex- and age-specific categories by multiplying the 2003 BRFSS arthritis prevalence data by the sex-stratified US Census projections. During this 45-year period, we estimate that the total number of US adults aged 20 years or older with arthritis will increase from 60 million to 96 million, a 1.6-fold increase. The increase is projected to be greater in those aged 65 years or older (a 2.3-fold increase) than for those aged 20 to 65 (a 1.3-fold increase). Given increases in the prevalence of known arthritis risk factors (e.g., obesity, Hispanic origin) our projections might underestimate the prevalence of arthritis in the coming years.

Development of new demi-span equations from a nationally representative sample of adults to estimate maximal adult height.

PubMed

Hirani, Vasant; Tabassum, Faiza; Aresu, Maria; Mindell, Jennifer

2010-08-01

Various measures have been used to estimate height when assessing nutritional status. Current equations to obtain demi-span equivalent height (DEH(Bassey)) are based on a small sample from a single study. The objectives of this study were to develop more robust DEH equations from a large number of men (n = 591) and women (n = 830) aged 25-45 y from a nationally representative cross-sectional sample (Health Survey for England 2007). Sex-specific regression equations were produced from young adults' (aged 25-45 y) measured height and demi-span to estimate new DEH equations (DEH(new)). DEH in people aged >or= 65 y was calculated using DEH(new). DEH(new) estimated current height in people aged 25-45 y with a mean difference of 0.04 in men (P = 0.80) and -0.29 in women (P = 0.05). Height, demi-span, DEH(new), and DEH(Bassey) declined by age group in both sexes aged >or=65 y (P < 0.05); DEH were larger than the measured height for all age groups (mean difference between DEH(new) and current height was -2.64 in men and -3.16 in women; both P < 0.001). Comparisons of DEH estimates showed good agreement, but DEH(new) was significantly higher than DEH(Bassey) in each age and sex group in older people. The new equations that are based on a large, randomly selected, nationally representative sample of young adults are more robust for predicting current height in young adults when height measurements are unavailable and can be used in the future to predict maximal adult height more accurately in currently young adults as they age.

The rate of preterm birth in the United States is affected by the method of gestational age assignment.

PubMed

Duryea, Elaine L; McIntire, Donald D; Leveno, Kenneth J

2015-08-01

The objective of the study was to examine the rate of preterm birth in the United States using 2 different methods of gestational age assignment and determine which method more closely correlates with the known morbidities associated with preterm birth. Using National Center for Health Statistics data from 2012 United States birth certificates, we computed the rate of preterm birth defined as a birth at 36 or fewer completed weeks with gestational age assigned using the obstetric estimate as specified in the revised birth certificate. This rate was then compared with the rate when gestational age is calculated using the last menstrual period alone. The rates of neonatal morbidities associated with preterm birth were examined for each method of assigning gestational age. The rate of preterm birth was 9.7% when the obstetric estimate is used to calculate gestational age, which is significantly different from the rate of 11.5% when gestational age is calculated using the last menstrual period alone. In addition, the neonates identified as preterm by obstetric estimate were more likely to qualify as low birthweight (54% vs 42%; P < .001) and suffer morbidities such as need for assisted ventilation and surfactant use than those identified with the last menstrual period alone. That is to say obstetric estimate is more sensitive and specific for preterm birth by all available markers of prematurity. The preterm birth rate is 9.7% vs 11.5% and more closely correlates with adverse neonatal outcomes associated with preterm birth when gestational age is assigned using the obstetric estimate. This method of gestational age assignment is currently used by most industrialized nations and should be considered for future reporting of US outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age estimation using tooth cementum annulation.

PubMed

Wittwer-Backofen, Ursula

2012-01-01

In Forensic Anthropology age diagnosis of unidentified bodies significantly helps in the identification process. Among the set of established aging methods in anthropology tooth cementum annulation (TCA) is increasingly used due to its narrow error range which can reach 5 years of age in adult individuals at best. The rhythm of cementum appositions of seasonally different density provides a principal mechanism on which TCA is based. Using histological preparation techniques for hard tissues, transversal tooth root sections are produced which can be analyzed in transmitted light microscopy. Even though no standard TCA preparation protocol exists, several methodological validation studies recommend specific treatments depending on individual conditions of the teeth. Individual age is estimated by adding mean tooth eruption age to the number of microscopically detected dark layers which are separated by bright layers and stand for 1 year of age each. To assure a high reliability of the method, TCA age diagnosis has to be based on several teeth of one individual if possible and needs to be supported by different techniques in forensic cases.

Evaluating the All-Ages Lead Model Using SiteSpecific Data: Approaches and Challenges

EPA Science Inventory

Lead (Pb) exposure continues to be a problem in the United States. Even after years of progress in reducing environmental levels, CDC estimates at least 500,000 U.S. children ages 1-5 years have blood Pb levels (BLL) above the CDC reference level of 5 µg/dL. Childhood Pb ex...

Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke.

PubMed

Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle K; Mensah, George A; Feigin, Valery L; Sposato, Luciano A; Naghavi, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Stroke mortality estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study are based on routine mortality statistics and redistribution of ill-defined codes that cannot be a cause of death, the so-called 'garbage codes' (GCs). This study describes the contribution of these codes to stroke mortality estimates. All available mortality data were compiled and non-specific cause codes were redistributed based on literature review and statistical methods. Ill-defined codes were redistributed to their specific cause of disease by age, sex, country and year. The reassignment was done based on the International Classification of Diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. Unspecified stroke and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing 'GCs' to stroke mortality estimates for hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS). There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to IS and HS for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. A large proportion of stroke fatalities are derived from the redistribution of 'unspecified stroke' and 'hypertension' with marked regional differences. Future advancements in stroke certification, data collections and statistical analyses may improve the estimation of the global stroke burden. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke

PubMed Central

Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle; Mensah, George A.; Feigin, Valery; Sposato, Luciano; Naghavi, Mohsen

2015-01-01

Background Stroke mortality estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study are based on routine mortality statistics and redistribution of ill-defined codes that cannot be a cause of death, the so-called “garbage codes”. This study describes the contribution of these codes to stroke mortality estimates. Methods All available mortality data were compiled and non-specific cause codes were redistributed based on literature review and statistical methods. Ill-defined codes were redistributed to their specific cause of disease by age, sex, country, and year. The reassignment was done based on the international classification of diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. Results Unspecified stroke, and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing “garbage codes” to stroke mortality estimates for intracranial hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke. There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. Conclusions A large proportion of stroke fatalities is derived from the redistribution of “unspecified stroke” and “hypertension” with marked regional differences. Future advancements in stroke certification, data collections, and statistical analyses may improve the estimation of the global stroke burden. PMID:26505189

Country-specific estimates of the incidence of intellectual disability associated with prenatal exposure to methylmercury.

PubMed

Bellinger, David C; O'Leary, Keri; Rainis, Holly; Gibb, Herman J

2016-05-01

This paper describes country-specific estimates of the incidence of intellectual disability in children associated with prenatal exposure to methylmercury. A systematic review was undertaken to identify country-specific data on hair mercury concentrations in women of reproductive age. A variety of approaches were used to estimate biomarker concentrations for countries lacking such data. A dose-effect relationship derived on the basis of the data from three large prospective studies relating prenatal methylmercury exposure to IQ in children was used to estimate the country-specific incidences of mild, moderate, severe, and profound intellectual disability in children as a result of prenatal methylmercury exposure. The incidence of methylmercury-associated mild intellectual disability (IQ scores 50-70) varied nearly 40-fold across countries, with the greatest incidences generally in countries that are islands or that are coastal. Countries with high birth rates and greater consumption of foods that contribute most to methylmercury intake in humans (seafood, rice) can be expected to make the largest contributions to the worldwide burden of disease associated with methylmercury. The assumptions and limitations of the estimates are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032.

PubMed

Yun, Jae-Won; Son, Mia

2016-08-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer's disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies.

Estimated Global, Regional, and National Disease Burdens Related to Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in 2010.

PubMed

Singh, Gitanjali M; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2015-08-25

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are consumed globally and contribute to adiposity. However, the worldwide impact of SSBs on burdens of adiposity-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancers, and diabetes mellitus has not been assessed by nation, age, and sex. We modeled global, regional, and national burdens of disease associated with SSB consumption by age/sex in 2010. Data on SSB consumption levels were pooled from national dietary surveys worldwide. The effects of SSB intake on body mass index and diabetes mellitus, and of elevated body mass index on CVD, diabetes mellitus, and cancers were derived from large prospective cohort pooling studies. Disease-specific mortality/morbidity data were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We computed cause-specific population-attributable fractions for SSB consumption, which were multiplied by cause-specific mortality/morbidity to compute estimates of SSB-attributable death/disability. Analyses were done by country/age/sex; uncertainties of all input data were propagated into final estimates. Worldwide, the model estimated 184 000 (95% uncertainty interval, 161 000-208 000) deaths/y attributable to SSB consumption: 133 000 (126 000-139 000) from diabetes mellitus, 45 000 (26 000-61 000) from CVD, and 6450 (4300-8600) from cancers. Five percent of SSB-related deaths occurred in low-income, 70.9% in middle-income, and 24.1% in high-income countries. Proportional mortality attributable to SSBs ranged from <1% in Japanese >65 years if age to 30% in Mexicans <45 years of age. Among the 20 most populous countries, Mexico had largest absolute (405 deaths/million adults) and proportional (12.1%) deaths from SSBs. A total of 8.5 (2.8, 19.2) million disability-adjusted life years were related to SSB intake (4.5% of diabetes mellitus-related disability-adjusted life years). SSBs are a single, modifiable component of diet that can impact preventable death/disability in adults in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, indicating an urgent need for strong global prevention programs. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Stellar population in star formation regions of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Alexander S.; Shimanovskaya, Elena V.; Shatsky, Nikolai I.; Sakhibov, Firouz; Piskunov, Anatoly E.; Kharchenko, Nina V.

2018-05-01

We developed techniques for searching young unresolved star groupings (clusters, associations, and their complexes) and of estimating their physical parameters. Our study is based on spectroscopic, spectrophotometric, and UBVRI photometric observations of 19 spiral galaxies. In the studied galaxies, we found 1510 objects younger than 10 Myr and present their catalogue. Having combined photometric and spectroscopic data, we derived extinctions, chemical abundances, sizes, ages, and masses of these groupings. We discuss separately the specific cases, when the gas extinction does not agree with the interstellar one. We assume that this is due to spatial offset of Hii clouds with respect to the related stellar population.We developed a method to estimate age of stellar population of the studied complexes using their morphology and the relation with associated H emission region. In result we obtained the estimates of chemical abundances for 80, masses for 63, and ages for 57 young objects observed in seven galaxies.

Does our legal minimum drinking age modulate risk of first heavy drinking episode soon after drinking onset? Epidemiological evidence for the United States, 2006–2014

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hui G.

2016-01-01

Background. State-level ‘age 21’ drinking laws conform generally with the United States National Minimum Drinking Age Act of 1984 (US), and are thought to protect young people from adverse drinking experiences such as heavy episodic drinking (HED, sometimes called ‘binge drinking’). We shed light on this hypothesis while estimating the age-specific risk of transitioning from 1st full drink to 1st HED among 12-to-23-year-old newly incident drinkers, with challenge to a “gender gap” hypothesis and male excess described in HED prevalence reports. Methods. The study population consisted of non-institutionalized civilians in the United States, with nine independently drawn nationally representative samples of more than 40,000 12-to-23-year-olds (2006–2014). Standardized audio computer-assisted self-interviews identified 43,000 newly incident drinkers (all with 1st HED evaluated within 12 months of drinking onset). Estimated age-specific HED risk soon after first full drink is evaluated for males and females. Results. Among 12-to-23-year-old newly incident drinkers, an estimated 20–30% of females and 35–45% of males experienced their 1st HED within 12 months after drinking onset. Before mid-adolescence, there is no male excess in such HED risk. Those who postponed drinking to age 21 are not spared (27% for ‘postponer’ females; 95% CI [24–30]; 42% for ‘postponer’ males; 95% CI [38–45]). An estimated 10–18% females and 10–28% males experienced their 1st HED in the same month of their 1st drink; peak HED risk estimates are 18% for ‘postponer’ females (95% CI [15–21]) and 28% for ‘postponer’ males (95% CI [24–31]). Conclusions. In the US, one in three young new drinkers transition into HED within 12 months after first drink. Those who postpone the 1st full drink until age 21 are not protected. Furthermore, ‘postponers’ have substantial risk for very rapid transition to HED. A male excess in this transition to HED is not observed until after age 14. PMID:27366651

Age-Related Differences in Susceptibility to Carcinogenesis. II. Approaches for Application and Uncertainty Analyses for Individual Genetically Acting Carcinogens

PubMed Central

Hattis, Dale; Goble, Robert; Chu, Margaret

2005-01-01

In an earlier report we developed a quantitative likelihood-based analysis of the differences in sensitivity of rodents to mutagenic carcinogens across three life stages (fetal, birth to weaning, and weaning to 60 days) relative to exposures in adult life. Here we draw implications for assessing human risks for full lifetime exposures, taking into account three types of uncertainties in making projections from the rodent data: uncertainty in the central estimates of the life-stage–specific sensitivity factors estimated earlier, uncertainty from chemical-to-chemical differences in life-stage–specific sensitivities for carcinogenesis, and uncertainty in the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods. Among the uncertainties analyzed, the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods is most important quantitatively (a range of several-fold in estimates of the duration of the human equivalent of the highest sensitivity “birth to weaning” period in rodents). The combined effects of these uncertainties are estimated with Monte Carlo analyses. Overall, the estimated population arithmetic mean risk from lifetime exposures at a constant milligrams per kilogram body weight level to a generic mutagenic carcinogen is about 2.8-fold larger than expected from adult-only exposure with 5–95% confidence limits of 1.5-to 6-fold. The mean estimates for the 0- to 2-year and 2- to 15-year periods are about 35–55% larger than the 10- and 3-fold sensitivity factor adjustments recently proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The present results are based on data for only nine chemicals, including five mutagens. Risk inferences will be altered as data become available for other chemicals. PMID:15811844

Usefulness of an Online Risk Estimator for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Predicting Corticosteroid Treatment in Infants Born Preterm.

PubMed

Cuna, Alain; Liu, Cynthia; Govindarajan, Shree; Queen, Margaret; Dai, Hongying; Truog, William E

2018-06-01

To assess the usefulness of a bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) outcome estimator developed by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) in identifying high-risk preterm infants treated with steroids. This was a single-center retrospective study of infants born ≤30 weeks of gestational age. The NICHD BPD outcome estimator was used to retrospectively calculate BPD risk at various postnatal ages. The best combination of risk estimates for identifying steroid treatment was identified using stepwise model selection. A cut-off value with the best combination of sensitivity and specificity was identified using receiver operating characteristic analysis. A total of 165 infants born preterm (mean gestational age 26 ± 1.6 weeks, mean birth weight 837 ± 171 g) were included. Of these, 61 were treated with steroids for BPD and 104 were not. Risk estimates for BPD or death were significantly greater in infants treated with steroids compared with controls. Both combined risk for severe BPD or death and single risk of no BPD were identified as factors with the best predictive power for identifying treatment with steroids, with accurate prediction possible as early as the second week of life. A greater than 37% risk for severe BPD or death or a less than 3% risk of no BPD on day of life 14 had 84%-92% sensitivity and 77%-80% specificity for predicting steroid treatment. The NICHD BPD outcome estimator can be a useful objective tool for identifying infants at high risk for BPD who may benefit from postnatal steroids. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The average cumulative risks of breast and ovarian cancer for carriers of mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 attending genetic counseling units in Spain.

PubMed

Milne, Roger L; Osorio, Ana; Cajal, Teresa Ramón Y; Vega, Ana; Llort, Gemma; de la Hoya, Miguel; Díez, Orland; Alonso, M Carmen; Lazaro, Conxi; Blanco, Ignacio; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Caldés, Trinidad; Blanco, Ana; Graña, Begoña; Durán, Mercedes; Velasco, Eladio; Chirivella, Isabel; Cardeñosa, Eva Esteban; Tejada, María-Isabel; Beristain, Elena; Miramar, María-Dolores; Calvo, María-Teresa; Martínez, Eduardo; Guillén, Carmen; Salazar, Raquel; San Román, Carlos; Antoniou, Antonis C; Urioste, Miguel; Benítez, Javier

2008-05-01

It is not clear that the published estimates of the breast and ovarian cancer penetrances of mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 can be used in genetic counseling in countries such as Spain, where the incidence of breast cancer in the general population is considerably lower, the prevalence of BRCA2 mutations seems to be higher, and a distinct spectrum of recurrent mutations exists for both genes. We aimed to estimate these penetrances for women attending genetic counseling units in Spain. We collected phenotype and genotype data on 155 BRCA1 and 164 BRCA2 mutation carrier families from 12 centers across the country. Average age-specific cumulative risks of breast cancer and ovarian cancer were estimated using a modified segregation analysis method. The estimated average cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 70 years was estimated to be 52% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 26-69%] for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 47% (95% CI, 29-60%) for BRCA2 mutation carriers. The corresponding estimates for ovarian cancer were 22% (95% CI, 0-40%) and 18% (95% CI, 0-35%), respectively. There was some evidence (two-sided P = 0.09) that 330A>G (R71G) in BRCA1 may have lower breast cancer penetrance. These results are consistent with those from a recent meta-analysis of practically all previous penetrance studies, suggesting that women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations attending genetic counseling services in Spain have similar risks of breast and ovarian cancer to those published for other Caucasian populations. Carriers should be fully informed of their mutation- and age-specific risks to make appropriate decisions regarding prophylactic interventions such as oophorectomy.

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds.

PubMed

Sergeant, E S G; Nielsen, S S; Toft, N

2008-06-15

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection affecting cattle and other ruminants. In the dairy industry, losses due to paratuberculosis can be substantial in infected herds and several countries have implemented national programmes based on herd-classification to manage the disease. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (PrLow) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors. Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated using observed milk-ELISA results from 19 Danish dairy herds as well as for simulated results from the same herds assuming that they were uninfected. Whole-herd milk-ELISA was the preferred strategy, and considered the most cost-effective strategy of the five alternatives. The five strategies were all efficient in detecting infection, i.e. estimating a low PrLow in infected herds, however, PrLow estimates for milk-ELISA on age-cohorts were too low in simulated uninfected herds and the strategies involving faecal culture were too expensive to be of practical interest. For simulated uninfected herds, whole-herd milk-ELISA resulted in median PrLow values>0.9 for most herds, depending on herd size and age-structure. None of the strategies provided enough power to establish a high PrLow in smaller herds, or herds with a younger age-structure. Despite this, it appears as if the method is a useful approach for herd-classification for most herds in the Danish dairy industry.

Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

PubMed

Strumpf, Erin C; Charters, Thomas J; Harper, Sam; Nandi, Arijit

2017-09-01

Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in working-age adults in metropolitan areas. Additional research investigating the mechanisms underlying the health consequences of macroeconomic conditions is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating rotavirus gastroenteritis hospitalisations by using hospital episode statistics before and after the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in Australia.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Sanjay; Macartney, Kristine

2013-01-30

Hospital discharge records and laboratory data have shown a substantial early impact from the rotavirus vaccination program that commenced in 2007 in Australia. However, these assessments are affected by the validity and reliability of hospital discharge coding and stool testing to measure the true incidence of hospitalised disease. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of these data sources for disease estimation, both before and after, vaccine introduction. All hospitalisations at a major paediatric centre in children aged <5 years from 2000 to 2009 containing acute gastroenteritis (AGE) ICD 10 AM diagnosis codes were linked to hospital laboratory stool testing data. The validity of the rotavirus-specific diagnosis code (A08.0) and the incidence of hospitalisations attributable to rotavirus by both direct estimation and with adjustments for non-testing and miscoding were calculated for pre- and post-vaccination periods. A laboratory record of stool testing was available for 36% of all AGE hospitalisations (n=4948) the rotavirus code had high specificity (98.4%; 95% CI, 97.5-99.1%) and positive predictive value (96.8%; 94.8-98.3%), and modest sensitivity (61.6%; 58-65.1%). Of all rotavirus test positive hospitalisations only a third had a rotavirus code. The estimated annual average number of rotavirus hospitalisations, following adjustment for non-testing and miscoding was 5- and 6-fold higher than identified, respectively, from testing and coding alone. Direct and adjusted estimates yielded similar percentage reductions in annual average rotavirus hospitalisations of over 65%. Due to the limited use of stool testing and poor sensitivity of the rotavirus-specific diagnosis code routine hospital discharge and laboratory data substantially underestimate the true incidence of rotavirus hospitalisations and absolute vaccine impact. However, this data can still be used to monitor vaccine impact as the effects of miscoding and under-testing appear to be comparable between pre and post vaccination periods. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790–19001

PubMed Central

Hacker, J. David

2010-01-01

This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900–02 rural and 1900–02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends. PMID:20563225

The impact of obesity on US mortality levels: the importance of age and cohort factors in population estimates.

PubMed

Masters, Ryan K; Reither, Eric N; Powers, Daniel A; Yang, Y Claire; Burger, Andrew E; Link, Bruce G

2013-10-01

To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity-mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986-2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity's impact on US mortality. Methods attentive to cohort variation in obesity prevalence and age variation in obesity's effect on mortality risk suggest that obesity significantly shapes US mortality levels, placing it at the forefront of concern for public health action.

New Estimates of Intergenerational Time Intervals for the Calculation of Age and Origins of Mutations

PubMed Central

Tremblay, Marc; Vézina, Hélène

2000-01-01

Summary Intergenerational time intervals are frequently used in human population-genetics studies concerned with the ages and origins of mutations. In most cases, mean intervals of 20 or 25 years are used, regardless of the demographic characteristics of the population under study. Although these characteristics may vary from prehistoric to historical times, we suggest that this value is probably too low, and that the ages of some mutations may have been underestimated. Analyses were performed by using the BALSAC Population Register (Quebec, Canada), from which several intergenerational comparisons can be made. Family reconstitutions were used to measure interval lengths and variations in descending lineages. Various parameters were considered, such as spouse age at marriage, parental age, and reproduction levels. Mother-child and father-child intervals were compared. Intergenerational male and female intervals were also analyzed in 100 extended ascending genealogies. Results showed that a mean value of 30 years is a better estimate of intergenerational intervals than 20 or 25 years. As marked differences between male and female interval length were observed, specific values are proposed for mtDNA, autosomal, X-chromosomal, and Y-chromosomal loci. The applicability of these results for age estimates of mutations is discussed. PMID:10677323

A Youth Compendium of Physical Activities: Activity Codes and Metabolic Intensities

PubMed Central

BUTTE, NANCY F.; WATSON, KATHLEEN B.; RIDLEY, KATE; ZAKERI, ISSA F.; MCMURRAY, ROBERT G.; PFEIFFER, KARIN A.; CROUTER, SCOTT E.; HERRMANN, STEPHEN D.; BASSETT, DAVID R.; LONG, ALEXANDER; BERHANE, ZEKARIAS; TROST, STEWART G.; AINSWORTH, BARBARA E.; BERRIGAN, DAVID; FULTON, JANET E.

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose A Youth Compendium of Physical Activities (Youth Compendium) was developed to estimate the energy costs of physical activities using data on youth only. Methods On the basis of a literature search and pooled data of energy expenditure measurements in youth, the energy costs of 196 activities were compiled in 16 activity categories to form a Youth Compendium of Physical Activities. To estimate the intensity of each activity, measured oxygen consumption (V˙O2) was divided by basal metabolic rate (Schofield age-, sex-, and mass-specific equations) to produce a youth MET (METy). A mixed linear model was developed for each activity category to impute missing values for age ranges with no observations for a specific activity. Results This Youth Compendium consists of METy values for 196 specific activities classified into 16 major categories for four age-groups, 6–9, 10–12, 13–15, and 16–18 yr. METy values in this Youth Compendium were measured (51%) or imputed (49%) from youth data. Conclusion This Youth Compendium of Physical Activities uses pediatric data exclusively, addresses the age dependency of METy, and imputes missing METy values and thus represents advancement in physical activity research and practice. This Youth Compendium will be a valuable resource for stakeholders interested in evaluating interventions, programs, and policies designed to assess and encourage physical activity in youth. PMID:28938248

Response to Name in Infants Developing Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Miller, Meghan; Iosif, Ana-Maria; Hill, Monique; Young, Gregory S.; Schwichtenberg, A. J.; Ozonoff, Sally

2017-01-01

Objective To examine longitudinal patterns of response to name from 6–24 months of age in infants at high and low risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Study design A response to name task was tested at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, and 24 months of age in 156 infant siblings of children with ASD (high-risk) or typical development (low-risk). At 36 months of age, participants were classified into 1 of 3 outcome groups: group with ASD (n = 20), high-risk group without ASD (n = 76), or low-risk group without ASD (n = 60). Differences in longitudinal performance were assessed using generalized estimating equations, and sensitivity and specificity for identifying ASD were calculated. Differences in age 36-month functioning were examined between infants who developed ASD and repeatedly vs infrequently failed to respond to name. Results At 9 months of age, infants developing ASD were more likely to fail to orient to their names, persisting through 24 months. Sensitivity/specificity for identifying ASD based on at least 1 failure between 12 and 24 months were estimated at .70 in this sample. One-half of the infants who developed ASD had repeated failures in this timeframe, and demonstrated lower age 36-month receptive language, and earlier diagnosis of ASD than infants with ASD who had infrequent failures. Conclusions In addition to recommended routine broad-based and ASD-specific screening, response to name should be regularly monitored in infants at risk for ASD. Infants who consistently fail to respond to their names in the second year of life may be at risk not only for ASD but also for greater impairment by age 3 years. PMID:28162768

An Automated Quiet Sleep Detection Approach in Preterm Infants as a Gateway to Assess Brain Maturation.

PubMed

Dereymaeker, Anneleen; Pillay, Kirubin; Vervisch, Jan; Van Huffel, Sabine; Naulaers, Gunnar; Jansen, Katrien; De Vos, Maarten

2017-09-01

Sleep state development in preterm neonates can provide crucial information regarding functional brain maturation and give insight into neurological well being. However, visual labeling of sleep stages from EEG requires expertise and is very time consuming, prompting the need for an automated procedure. We present a robust method for automated detection of preterm sleep from EEG, over a wide postmenstrual age ([Formula: see text] age) range, focusing first on Quiet Sleep (QS) as an initial marker for sleep assessment. Our algorithm, CLuster-based Adaptive Sleep Staging (CLASS), detects QS if it remains relatively more discontinuous than non-QS over PMA. CLASS was optimized on a training set of 34 recordings aged 27-42 weeks PMA, and performance then assessed on a distinct test set of 55 recordings of the same age range. Results were compared to visual QS labeling from two independent raters (with inter-rater agreement [Formula: see text]), using Sensitivity, Specificity, Detection Factor ([Formula: see text] of visual QS periods correctly detected by CLASS) and Misclassification Factor ([Formula: see text] of CLASS-detected QS periods that are misclassified). CLASS performance proved optimal across recordings at 31-38 weeks (median [Formula: see text], median MF 0-0.25, median Sensitivity 0.93-1.0, and median Specificity 0.80-0.91 across this age range), with minimal misclassifications at 35-36 weeks (median [Formula: see text]). To illustrate the potential of CLASS in facilitating clinical research, normal maturational trends over PMA were derived from CLASS-estimated QS periods, visual QS estimates, and nonstate specific periods (containing QS and non-QS) in the EEG recording. CLASS QS trends agreed with those from visual QS, with both showing stronger correlations than nonstate specific trends. This highlights the benefit of automated QS detection for exploring brain maturation.

Age- and Tumor Subtype–Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers

PubMed Central

Hogervorst, Frans; van Hien, Richard; Cornelissen, Sten; Broeks, Annegien; Adank, Muriel A.; Meijers, Hanne; Waisfisz, Quinten; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Schutte, Mieke; van den Ouweland, Ans; Hooning, Maartje; Andrulis, Irene L.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Arndt, Volker; Bermisheva, Marina; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brenner, Hermann; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Couch, Fergus J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Czene, Kamila; Dunning, Alison M.; Fasching, Peter A.; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Galle, Eva; García-Closas, Montserrat; Giles, Graham G.; Haeberle, Lothar; Hall, Per; Hillemanns, Peter; Hopper, John L.; Jakubowska, Anna; John, Esther M.; Jones, Michael; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Knight, Julia A.; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela; Lee, Andrew; Lindblom, Annika; Lubinski, Jan; Mannermaa, Arto; Margolin, Sara; Meindl, Alfons; Milne, Roger L.; Muranen, Taru A.; Newcomb, Polly A.; Offit, Kenneth; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Peto, Julian; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Robson, Mark; Rudolph, Anja; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Soens, Julie; Southey, Melissa C.; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tollenaar, Rob A.E.M.; Tomlinson, Ian; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Vachon, Celine; Wang, Qin; Whittemore, Alice S.; Ziogas, Argyrios; van der Kolk, Lizet; Nevanlinna, Heli; Dörk, Thilo; Bojesen, Stig; Easton, Douglas F.

2016-01-01

Purpose CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. Patients and Methods CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay. Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies. Results Proportions of heterozygous CHEK2*1100delC carriers in controls, in patients with breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies, and in patients with breast cancer from familial- and clinical genetics center–based studies were 0.5%, 1.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The estimated OR for invasive breast cancer was 2.26 (95%CI, 1.90 to 2.69; P = 2.3 × 10−20). The OR was higher for estrogen receptor (ER)–positive disease (2.55 [95%CI, 2.10 to 3.10; P = 4.9 × 10−21]) than it was for ER-negative disease (1.32 [95%CI, 0.93 to 1.88; P = .12]; P interaction = 9.9 × 10−4). The OR significantly declined with attained age for breast cancer overall (P = .001) and for ER-positive tumors (P = .001). Estimated cumulative risks for development of ER-positive and ER-negative tumors by age 80 in CHEK2*1100delC carriers were 20% and 3%, respectively, compared with 9% and 2%, respectively, in the general population of the United Kingdom. Conclusion These CHEK2*1100delC breast cancer risk estimates provide a basis for incorporating CHEK2*1100delC into breast cancer risk prediction models and into guidelines for intensified screening and follow-up. PMID:27269948

Age- and Tumor Subtype-Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers.

PubMed

Schmidt, Marjanka K; Hogervorst, Frans; van Hien, Richard; Cornelissen, Sten; Broeks, Annegien; Adank, Muriel A; Meijers, Hanne; Waisfisz, Quinten; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Schutte, Mieke; van den Ouweland, Ans; Hooning, Maartje; Andrulis, Irene L; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Antoniou, Antonis C; Arndt, Volker; Bermisheva, Marina; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Bolla, Manjeet K; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brenner, Hermann; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Couch, Fergus J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Czene, Kamila; Dunning, Alison M; Fasching, Peter A; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Galle, Eva; García-Closas, Montserrat; Giles, Graham G; Haeberle, Lothar; Hall, Per; Hillemanns, Peter; Hopper, John L; Jakubowska, Anna; John, Esther M; Jones, Michael; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Knight, Julia A; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela; Lee, Andrew; Lindblom, Annika; Lubinski, Jan; Mannermaa, Arto; Margolin, Sara; Meindl, Alfons; Milne, Roger L; Muranen, Taru A; Newcomb, Polly A; Offit, Kenneth; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Peto, Julian; Pharoah, Paul D P; Robson, Mark; Rudolph, Anja; Sawyer, Elinor J; Schmutzler, Rita K; Seynaeve, Caroline; Soens, Julie; Southey, Melissa C; Spurdle, Amanda B; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Tomlinson, Ian; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Vachon, Celine; Wang, Qin; Whittemore, Alice S; Ziogas, Argyrios; van der Kolk, Lizet; Nevanlinna, Heli; Dörk, Thilo; Bojesen, Stig; Easton, Douglas F

2016-08-10

CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay. Breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers versus noncarriers were estimated by using logistic regression and adjusted for study (categorical) and age. Main analyses included patients with invasive breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies. Proportions of heterozygous CHEK2*1100delC carriers in controls, in patients with breast cancer from population- and hospital-based studies, and in patients with breast cancer from familial- and clinical genetics center-based studies were 0.5%, 1.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The estimated OR for invasive breast cancer was 2.26 (95%CI, 1.90 to 2.69; P = 2.3 × 10(-20)). The OR was higher for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (2.55 [95%CI, 2.10 to 3.10; P = 4.9 × 10(-21)]) than it was for ER-negative disease (1.32 [95%CI, 0.93 to 1.88; P = .12]; P interaction = 9.9 × 10(-4)). The OR significantly declined with attained age for breast cancer overall (P = .001) and for ER-positive tumors (P = .001). Estimated cumulative risks for development of ER-positive and ER-negative tumors by age 80 in CHEK2*1100delC carriers were 20% and 3%, respectively, compared with 9% and 2%, respectively, in the general population of the United Kingdom. These CHEK2*1100delC breast cancer risk estimates provide a basis for incorporating CHEK2*1100delC into breast cancer risk prediction models and into guidelines for intensified screening and follow-up. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Skeletal age estimation for forensic purposes: A comparison of GP, TW2 and TW3 methods on an Italian sample.

PubMed

Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Ricciardi, Federico; Focardi, Martina; Piredda, Valentina; Mazzeo, Elena; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

2014-05-01

Paediatricians, radiologists, anthropologists and medico-legal specialists are often called as experts in order to provide age estimation (AE) for forensic purposes. The literature recommends performing the X-rays of the left hand and wrist (HW-XR) for skeletal age estimation. The method most frequently employed is the Greulich and Pyle (GP) method. In addition, the so-called bone-specific techniques are also applied including the method of Tanner Whitehouse (TW) in the latest versions TW2 and TW3. To compare skeletal age and chronological age in a large sample of children and adolescents using GP, TW2 and TW3 methods in order to establish which of these is the most reliable for forensic purposes. The sample consisted of 307 HW-XRs of Italian children or adolescents, 145 females and 162 males aged between 6 and 20 years. The radiographies were scored according to the GP, TW2RUS and TW3RUS methods by one investigator. The results' reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient. Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Student t-test were performed to search for significant differences between skeletal and chronological ages. The distributions of the differences between estimated and chronological age, by means of boxplots, show how median differences for TW3 and GP methods are generally very close to 0. Hypothesis tests' results were obtained, with respect to the sex, both for the entire group of individuals and people grouped by age. Results show no significant differences among estimated and chronological age for TW3 and, to a lesser extent, GP. The TW2 proved to be the worst of the three methods. Our results support the conclusion that the TW2 method is not reliable for AE for forensic purpose. The GP and TW3 methods have proved to be reliable in males. For females, the best method was found to be TW3. When performing forensic age estimation in subjects around 14 years of age, it could be advisable to use and associate the TW3 and GP methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The expected benefit of preventive mastectomy on breast cancer incidence and mortality in BRCA mutation carriers, by age at mastectomy.

PubMed

Giannakeas, Vasily; Narod, Steven A

2018-01-01

Preventive breast surgery is offered to unaffected BRCA mutation carriers to prevent breast cancer incidence and mortality. The clinical benefit of preventive mastectomy can be measured in several ways, including extension of life expectancy (mean years of life gained) and by estimating the probability of surviving until age 80. We sought to estimate the expected benefit of a preventive mastectomy at various ages, using these indices of mortality, by simulating hypothetical cohorts of women. The age-specific annual risks of developing breast cancer were used to estimate the actuarial risk of developing breast cancer by age 80 for women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. The probability of developing breast cancer before age 80 was then modified to include competing causes of death, including from ovarian cancer. The mortality rate from breast cancer after a diagnosis of breast cancer was set at 2% annually for the first 10 years and then 1% annually for years ten to twenty. The incidence rate and mortality rate from ovarian cancer were based on published literature. We assumed that preventive mastectomy was associated with complete protection against subsequent breast cancer. A series of simulations was conducted to evaluate the reduction in the probability of death (from all causes) until age 80, according to the age at mastectomy. The actuarial risk of developing breast cancer until age 80 was estimated to be 70.8%. The actual risk (incorporating competing risks) was 64.0%. The probability of being alive at age 80 by having a mastectomy at age 25 increased by 8.7% (from 42.7 to 51.3%). The estimated benefit declined with age at mastectomy; for surgery done at age 50 the improvement in survival to age 80 was much more modest (2.8% at age 80, from 42.7 to 45.5%). Among BRCA mutation carriers, the mortality benefit of preventive mastectomy at age 25 is substantial, but the expected benefit declines rapidly with increasing age at surgery.

Indirectly Estimating International Net Migration Flows by Age and Gender: The Community Demographic Model International Migration (CDM-IM) Dataset

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Jiang, Leiwen

2015-01-01

Although data for the total number of international migrant flows is now available, no global dataset concerning demographic characteristics, such as the age and gender composition of migrant flows exists. This paper reports on the methods used to generate the CDM-IM dataset of age and gender specific profiles of bilateral net (not gross) migrant flows. We employ raw data from the United Nations Global Migration Database and estimate net migrant flows by age and gender between two time points around the year 2000, accounting for various demographic processes (fertility, mortality). The dataset contains information on 3,713 net migrant flows. Validation analyses against existing data sets and the historical, geopolitical context demonstrate that the CDM-IM dataset is of reasonably high quality. PMID:26692590

Effect of degree of urbanisation on age and sex-specific asthma prevalence in Swedish preschool children.

PubMed

Bröms, Kristina; Norbäck, Dan; Eriksson, Margaretha; Sundelin, Claes; Svärdsudd, Kurt

2009-08-20

There are few studies on age and sex-specific asthma prevalence in the age range 1-6 years. The purpose of this report was to estimate age and sex specific asthma prevalence in preschool children and to analyse the influence of possible demographic and geographic determinants. All 70 allergen avoidance day-care centres and 140 matched ordinary day-care centres across Sweden were sampled. The parents of all 8,757 children attending these day-care centres received the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) written questionnaire, supplemented with questions on medical treatment, physician assessed asthma diagnosis, and other asthma related questions. The response rate was 68%. The age specific asthma prevalence, adjusted for the underlying municipality population size, was among boys 9.7% at age 1, 11.1% at age 2, 11.4 at age 3, 10.5 at age 4, 8.7 at age 5, and 6.4 at age 6. The corresponding proportions among girls were 8.9%, 9.9%, 9.8%, 8.8%, 7.0%, and 5.0%, on average 9.6% for boys and 8.2% for girls, altogether 8.9%. In addition to age and sex the prevalence increased by municipality population density, a proxy for degree of urbanisation. Moreover, there was a remaining weak geographical gradient with increasing prevalence towards the north and the west. The age-specific asthma prevalence was curvilinear with a peak around age 3 and somewhat higher for boys than for girls. The asthma prevalence increased in a slowly accelerating pace by municipality population density as a proxy for degree of urbanisation.

Age-related differences in recommended anthropometric cut-off point validity to identify cardiovascular risk factors in ostensibly healthy women

PubMed Central

Björkelund, Cecilia; Guo, Xinxin; Skoog, Ingmar; Bosaeus, Ingvar; Lissner, Lauren

2014-01-01

Aim: To investigate validity of widely recommended anthropometric and total fat percentage cut-off points in screening for cardiovascular risk factors in women of different ages. Methods: A population-based sample of 1002 Swedish women aged 38, 50, 75 (younger, middle-aged and elderly, respectively) underwent anthropometry, health examinations and blood tests. Total fat was estimated (bioimpedance) in 670 women. Sensitivity, specificity of body mass index (BMI; ≥25 and ≥30), waist circumference (WC; ≥80 cm and ≥88 cm) and total fat percentage (TF; ≥35%) cut-off points for cardiovascular risk factors (dyslipidaemias, hypertension and hyperglycaemia) were calculated for each age. Cut-off points yielding high sensitivity together with modest specificity were considered valid. Women reporting hospital admission for cardiovascular disease were excluded. Results: The sensitivity of WC ≥80 cm for one or more risk factors was ~60% in younger and middle-aged women, and 80% in elderly women. The specificity of WC ≥80 cm for one or more risk factors was 69%, 57% and 40% at the three ages (p < .05 for age trends). WC ≥80 cm yielded ~80% sensitivity for two or more risk factors across all ages. However, specificity decreased with increasing age (p < .0001), being 33% in elderly. WC ≥88 cm provided better specificity in elderly women. BMI and TF % cut-off points were not better than WC. Conclusions: Validity of recommended anthropometric cut-off points in screening asymptomatic women varies with age. In younger and middle-age, WC ≥80 cm yielded high sensitivity and modest specificity for two or more risk factors, however, sensitivity for one or more risk factor was less than optimal. WC ≥88 cm showed better validity than WC ≥80 cm in elderly. Our results support age-specific screening cut-off points for women. PMID:25294689

Age-related differences in recommended anthropometric cut-off point validity to identify cardiovascular risk factors in ostensibly healthy women.

PubMed

Subramoney, Sreevidya; Björkelund, Cecilia; Guo, Xinxin; Skoog, Ingmar; Bosaeus, Ingvar; Lissner, Lauren

2014-12-01

To investigate validity of widely recommended anthropometric and total fat percentage cut-off points in screening for cardiovascular risk factors in women of different ages. A population-based sample of 1002 Swedish women aged 38, 50, 75 (younger, middle-aged and elderly, respectively) underwent anthropometry, health examinations and blood tests. Total fat was estimated (bioimpedance) in 670 women. Sensitivity, specificity of body mass index (BMI; ≥25 and ≥30), waist circumference (WC; ≥80 cm and ≥88 cm) and total fat percentage (TF; ≥35%) cut-off points for cardiovascular risk factors (dyslipidaemias, hypertension and hyperglycaemia) were calculated for each age. Cut-off points yielding high sensitivity together with modest specificity were considered valid. Women reporting hospital admission for cardiovascular disease were excluded. The sensitivity of WC ≥80 cm for one or more risk factors was ~60% in younger and middle-aged women, and 80% in elderly women. The specificity of WC ≥80 cm for one or more risk factors was 69%, 57% and 40% at the three ages (p < .05 for age trends). WC ≥80 cm yielded ~80% sensitivity for two or more risk factors across all ages. However, specificity decreased with increasing age (p < .0001), being 33% in elderly. WC ≥88 cm provided better specificity in elderly women. BMI and TF % cut-off points were not better than WC. Validity of recommended anthropometric cut-off points in screening asymptomatic women varies with age. In younger and middle-age, WC ≥80 cm yielded high sensitivity and modest specificity for two or more risk factors, however, sensitivity for one or more risk factor was less than optimal. WC ≥88 cm showed better validity than WC ≥80 cm in elderly. Our results support age-specific screening cut-off points for women. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Italy from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model.

PubMed

Piscitelli, P; Brandi, M; Cawston, H; Gauthier, A; Kanis, J A; Compston, J; Borgström, F; Cooper, C; McCloskey, E

2014-11-01

The article describes the adaptation of a model to estimate the burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in women aged 50 years and over in Italy between 2010 and 2020. For this purpose, a validated postmenopausal osteoporosis disease model developed for Sweden was adapted to Italy. For each year of the study, the 'incident cohort' (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using 1-year cycles until 2020. Health states were based on the number of fractures and deaths. Fracture by site (hip, clinical vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) was tracked for each health state. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risk of death and subsequent fractures. Model inputs specific to Italy included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020, incidence of hip fracture and BMD by age in the general population (mean and standard deviation). The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women would increase from 3.3 million to 3.7 million between 2010 and 2020 (+14.3%). Assuming unchanged incidence rates by age group over time, the model predicted the overall number of osteoporotic fractures to increase from 285.0 to 335.8 thousand fractures between 2010 and 2020 (+17.8%). The estimated expected increases in hip, vertebral and non-hip non-vertebral fractures were 22.3, 17.2 and 16.3%, respectively. Due to demographic changes, the burden of fractures is expected to increase markedly by 2020.

Age estimation using pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary canines-A digital image analysis.

PubMed

Juneja, Manjushree; Devi, Yashoda B K; Rakesh, N; Juneja, Saurabh

2014-09-01

Determination of age of a subject is one of the most important aspects of medico-legal cases and anthropological research. Radiographs can be used to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition which is depicted by reduction in the pulp area. In this study, 200 patients of Karnataka aged between 18-72 years were selected for the study. Panoramic radiographs were made and indirectly digitized. Radiographic images of maxillary canines (RIC) were processed using a computer-aided drafting program (ImageJ). The variables pulp/root length (p), pulp/tooth length (r), pulp/root width at enamel-cementum junction (ECJ) level (a), pulp/root width at mid-root level (c), pulp/root width at midpoint level between ECJ level and mid-root level (b) and pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) were recorded. All the morphological variables including gender were statistically analyzed to derive regression equation for estimation of age. It was observed that 2 variables 'AR' and 'b' contributed significantly to the fit and were included in the regression model, yielding the formula: Age = 87.305-480.455(AR)+48.108(b). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation with selected variables explained 96% of total variance with the median of the residuals of 0.1614 years and standard error of estimate of 3.0186 years. There is significant correlation between age and morphological variables 'AR' and 'b' and the derived population specific regression equation can be potentially used for estimation of chronological age of individuals of Karnataka origin.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Summary Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. PMID:25530442

Accuracy of Cameriere's cut-off value for third molar in assessing 18 years of age.

PubMed

De Luca, S; Biagi, R; Begnoni, G; Farronato, G; Cingolani, M; Merelli, V; Ferrante, L; Cameriere, R

2014-02-01

Due to increasingly numerous international migrations, estimating the age of unaccompanied minors is becoming of enormous significance for forensic professionals who are required to deliver expert opinions. The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for estimating the age of individuals in late adolescence. This study verifies the accuracy of Cameriere's cut-off value of the third molar index (I3M) in assessing 18 years of age. For this purpose, a sample of orthopantomographs (OPTs) of 397 living subjects aged between 13 and 22 years (192 female and 205 male) was analyzed. Age distribution gradually decreases as I3M increases in both males and females. The results show that the sensitivity of the test was 86.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of (80.8%, 91.1%), and its specificity was 95.7%, with a 95% confidence interval of (92.1%, 98%). The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 91.4%. Estimated post-test probability, p was 95.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of (92%, 98%). Hence, the probability that a subject positive on the test (i.e., I3M<0.08) was 18 years of age or older was 95.6%. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of recording uterine cancer in death certification in France and age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri.

PubMed

Rogel, Agnès; Belot, Aurélien; Suzan, Florence; Bossard, Nadine; Boussac, Marjorie; Arveux, Patrick; Buémi, Antoine; Colonna, Marc; Danzon, Arlette; Ganry, Olivier; Guizard, Anne-Valérie; Grosclaude, Pascale; Velten, Michel; Jougla, Eric; Iwaz, Jean; Estève, Jacques; Chérié-Challine, Laurence; Remontet, Laurent

2011-06-01

French uterine cancer recordings in death certificates include 60% of "uterine cancer, Not Otherwise Specified (NOS)"; this hampers the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers. The aims of this work were to study the reliability of uterine cancer recordings in death certificates using a case matching with cancer registries and estimate age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri cancers among all uterine cancer deaths by a statistical approach that uses incidence and survival data. Deaths from uterine cancer between 1989 and 2001 were extracted from the French National database of causes of death and case-to-case matched to women diagnosed with uterine cancer between 1989 and 1997 in 8 cancer registries. Registry data were considered as "gold-standard". Among the 1825 matched deaths, cancer registries recorded 830 cervix and 995 corpus uteri cancers. In death certificates, 5% and 40% of "true" cervix cancers were respectively coded "corpus" and "uterus, NOS" and 5% and 59% of "true" corpus cancers respectively coded "cervix" and "uterus, NOS". Miscoding cervix cancers was more frequent at advanced ages at death and in deaths at home or in small urban areas. Miscoding corpus cancers was more frequent in deaths at home or in small urban areas. From the statistical method, the estimated proportion of deaths from cervix cancer among all uterine cancer deaths was higher than 95% in women aged 30-40 years old but declined to 35% in women older than 70 years. The study clarifies the reason for poor encoding of uterus cancer mortality and refines the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers allowing future studies on the efficacy of cervical cancer screening. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population.

PubMed

Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Caldas, Inês-Morais; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

2014-12-01

The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament.

Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death.

PubMed

Merrill, R M; Kessler, L G; Udler, J M; Rasband, G C; Feuer, E J

1999-02-01

Lifetime risk estimates of disease are limited by long-term data extrapolations and are less relevant to individuals who have already lived a period of time without the disease, but are approaching the age at which the disease risk becomes common. In contrast, short-term age-conditional risk estimates, such as the risk of developing a disease in the next 10 years among those alive and free of the disease at a given age, are less restricted by long-term extrapolation of current rates and can present patients with risk information tailored to their age. This study focuses on short-term age-conditional risk estimates for a broad set of important chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death among white and black men and women. The Feuer et al. (1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute) [15] method was applied to data from a variety of sources to obtain risk estimates for select cancers, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and death from motor vehicle accidents, homicide or legal intervention, and suicide. Acute deaths from suicide, homicide or legal intervention, and fatal motor vehicle accidents dominate the risk picture for persons in their 20s, with only diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease therapy (for blacks only) having similar levels of risk in this age range. Late in life, cancer, acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer's, and stroke become most common. The chronic diseases affecting the population later in life present the most likely diseases someone will face. Several interesting differences in disease and death risks were derived and reported among age-specific race and gender subgroups of the population. Presentation of risk estimates for a broad set of chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death within short-term age ranges among population subgroups provides tailored information that may lead to better educated prevention, screening, and control behaviors and more efficient allocation of health resources.

Rates of transition between amyloid and neurodegeneration biomarker states and to dementia among non-demented individuals: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Jack, Clifford R.; Therneau, Terry M.; Wiste, Heather J.; Weigand, Stephen D.; Knopman, David S.; Lowe, Val J.; Mielke, Michelle M.; Vemuri, Prashanthi; Roberts, Rosebud O.; Machulda, Mary M.; Senjem, Matthew L.; Gunter, Jeffrey L.; Rocca, Walter A.; Petersen, Ronald C.

2016-01-01

Summary Background We previously observed in a cross-sectional analysis that frequencies of amyloid and neurodegeneration biomarker states varied greatly by age among cognitively non-impaired participants, suggesting dynamic within-person processes. Our objective in this longitudinal study was to estimate rates of transitioning from a less- to a more-abnormal biomarker state by age among non-demented individuals, as well as rates of transitioning to dementia by biomarker state. Methods All participants (n=4049) were non-demented at baseline. A subset of 1541 underwent multi-modality imaging. Amyloid PET was used to classify individuals as amyloid positive (A+) or negative (A−). FDG PET and MRI were used to classify individuals as neurodegeneration positive (N+) or negative (N−). All observations from the 4049 individuals were used in a multi-state model to estimate four different age-specific biomarker state transition rates among non-demented individuals: A−N− to A+N−; A−N− to A−N+ (suspected non-Alzheimer pathology, SNAP); A+N− to A+N+; A−N+ (SNAP) to A+N+. We also estimated two age-specific rates to dementia: A+N+ to dementia; and A−N+ (SNAP) to dementia. Using these state-to-state transition rates, we estimated biomarker state frequencies by age. Findings All transition rates were low at age 50 and (with one exception) were well-characterized by an exponential increase with age. The rates per 100-person years at ages 65 versus 85 were 1.6 versus 17.2 for A−N− to A−N+, 6.1 versus 20.8 for A+N− to A+N+, 2.6 versus 13.2 for A−N+ to A+N+, 0.8 versus 7.0 for A+N+ to dementia, and 0.6 versus 1.7 for A−N+ to dementia. The one exception to an exponential increase with age was the transition rate from A−N− to A+N− which increased from 4.0 transitions per 100 person-years at age 65 to approximately 7 transitions per 100 person-years in the 70s and then plateaued beyond that age. Estimated biomarker frequencies by age from the multistate model were similar to cross-sectional biomarker frequencies. Interpretation Dynamic state-to-state transition rates illustrate important measurable aspects of the changing biology underlying brain aging. The biomarker states we describe relate to both AD and non-AD processes. Our transition rates suggest that brain aging can be conceptualized as a nearly inevitable acceleration toward worse biomarker and clinical states. The one exception was that transition to amyloidosis without neurodegeneration was most dynamic from age 60 to 70 and then plateaued beyond that age. We found that simple transition rates can explain complex, highly interdependent biomarker state frequencies in our sample. PMID:26597325

Estimation of height and body mass index from demi-span in elderly individuals.

PubMed

Weinbrenner, Tanja; Vioque, Jesús; Barber, Xavier; Asensio, Laura

2006-01-01

Obtaining accurate height and, consequently, body mass index (BMI) measurements in elderly subjects can be difficult due to changes in posture and loss of height during ageing. Measurements of other body segments can be used as an alternative to estimate standing height, but population- and age-specific equations are necessary. Our objectives were to validate existing equations, to develop new simple equations to predict height in an elderly Spanish population and to assess the accuracy of the BMI calculated by estimated height from the new equations. We measured height and demi-span in a representative sample of 592 individuals, 271 men and 321 women, 65 years and older (mean +/- SD, 73.8 +/- 6.3 years). We suggested equations to predict height from demi-span by multiple regression analyses and performed an agreement analysis between measured and estimated indices. Height estimated from demi-span correlated significantly (p < 0.001) with measured height (men: r = 0.708, women: r = 0.625). The best prediction equations were as follows: men, height (in cm) = 77.821 + (1.132 x demi-span in cm) + (-0.215 x 5-year age category); women: height (in cm) = 88.854 + (0.899 x demi-span in cm) + (-0.692 x 5-year age category). No significant differences between the mean values of estimated and measured heights were found for men (-0.03 +/- 4.6 cm) or women (-0.02 +/- 4.1 cm). The BMI derived from measured height did not differ significantly from the BMI derived from estimated height either. Predicted height values from equations based on demi-span and age may be acceptable surrogates to derive accurate nutritional indices such as the BMI, particularly in elderly populations, where height may be difficult to measure accurately.

Projected number of children with isolated spina bifida or down syndrome in England and Wales by 2020.

PubMed

Best, Kate E; Glinianaia, Svetlana V; Lingam, Raghu; Morris, Joan K; Rankin, Judith

2018-05-19

Children with major congenital anomalies often require lifelong access to health and social care services. Estimating future numbers of affected individuals can aid health and social care planning. This study aimed to estimate the number of children aged 0-15 years living with spina bifida or Down syndrome in England and Wales by 2020. Cases of spina bifida and Down syndrome born during 1998-2013 were identified from the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey and the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register, respectively. The number of infants born with spina bifida during 1998-2019 were estimated by applying the average prevalence rate in the North of England to actual and projected births in England and Wales. Poisson regression was performed to estimate the number of infants born with Down syndrome in England and Wales during 1998-2013 and 2004-2019. The numbers of children aged 0-15 living with spina bifida or Down syndrome in 2014 and in 2020 were then estimated by multiplying year- and age-specific survival estimates by the number of affected births. An estimated 956 children with isolated spina bifida, 623 children with spina bifida and hydrocephalus and 11,592 children with Down syndrome aged 0-15 years will be living in England and Wales by 2020, increases of 7.2%, 12.0% and 12.7% since 2014, respectively. Due to improvements in survival, an increase in population size and changes in maternal age distribution at delivery, we anticipate further increases in the number of children living with spina bifida or Down syndrome by 2020. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

On the Methodology of Studying Aging in Humans

DTIC Science & Technology

1961-01-01

prediction of death rates The relation of death rate to age has been extensively studied for over 100 years. As an illustration recent death rates for...log death rates appear to be linear, the simpler Gompertz curve fits closely. While on this subject of the Makeham-Gompertz function, it should be...Makeham-Gompertz curve to 5 year age specific death rates . Each fitting provided estimates of the parameters a, {j, and log c for each of the five year

AGE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITY OF LIVE-BIRTH WITH OOCYTE CRYOPRESERVATION: AN INDIVIDUAL PATIENT DATA META-ANALYSIS

PubMed Central

CIL, AYLIN PELIN; BANG, HEEJUNG; OKTAY, KUTLUK

2013-01-01

Objective To estimate age-specific probabilities of live-birth with oocyte cryopreservation in non-donor (ND) egg cycles. Design Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Setting Assisted reproduction centers. Patients Infertile patients undergoing ND mature oocyte cryopreservation. Interventions PubMed was searched for the clinical studies on oocyte cryopreservation from January 1996 through July 2011. Randomized and non-randomized studies that used ND frozen-thawed mature oocytes with pregnancy outcomes were included. Authors of eligible studies were contacted to obtain IPD. Main outcome measures Live-birth probabilities based on age, cryopreservation method, and the number of oocytes thawed, injected, or embryos transferred. Results Original data from 10 studies including 2265 cycles from 1805 patients were obtained. Live-birth success rates declined with age regardless of the freezing technique. Despite this age-induced compromise, live-births continued to occur as late as to the ages of 42 and 44 with slowly-frozen (SF) and vitrified (VF) oocytes, respectively. Estimated probabilities of live-birth for VF oocytes were higher than those for SF. Conclusions The live-birth probabilities we calculated would enable more accurate counseling and informed decision of infertile women who consider oocyte cryopreservation. Given the success probabilities, we suggest that policy-makers should consider oocyte freezing as an integral part of prevention and treatment of infertility. PMID:23706339

Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping by Inversion of a Perturbation Field Model: Correlation with Brain Iron in Normal Aging

PubMed Central

Poynton, Clare; Jenkinson, Mark; Adalsteinsson, Elfar; Sullivan, Edith V.; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Wells, William

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence that iron deposition occurs in specific regions of the brain in normal aging and neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson's, Huntington's, and Alzheimer's disease. Iron deposition changes the magnetic susceptibility of tissue, which alters the MR signal phase, and allows estimation of susceptibility differences using quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM). We present a method for quantifying susceptibility by inversion of a perturbation model, or ‘QSIP’. The perturbation model relates phase to susceptibility using a kernel calculated in the spatial domain, in contrast to previous Fourier-based techniques. A tissue/air susceptibility atlas is used to estimate B0 inhomogeneity. QSIP estimates in young and elderly subjects are compared to postmortem iron estimates, maps of the Field-Dependent Relaxation Rate Increase (FDRI), and the L1-QSM method. Results for both groups showed excellent agreement with published postmortem data and in-vivo FDRI: statistically significant Spearman correlations ranging from Rho = 0.905 to Rho = 1.00 were obtained. QSIP also showed improvement over FDRI and L1-QSM: reduced variance in susceptibility estimates and statistically significant group differences were detected in striatal and brainstem nuclei, consistent with age-dependent iron accumulation in these regions. PMID:25248179

Fitness prospects: effects of age, sex and recruitment age on reproductive value in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Zhang, He; Rebke, Maren; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra

2015-01-01

Reproductive value is an integrated measure of survival and reproduction fundamental to understanding life-history evolution and population dynamics, but little is known about intraspecific variation in reproductive value and factors explaining such variation, if any. By applying generalized additive mixed models to longitudinal individual-based data of the common tern Sterna hirundo, we estimated age-specific annual survival probability, breeding probability and reproductive performance, based on which we calculated age-specific reproductive values. We investigated effects of sex and recruitment age (RA) on each trait. We found age effects on all traits, with survival and breeding probability declining with age, while reproductive performance first improved with age before levelling off. We only found a very small, marginally significant, sex effect on survival probability, but evidence for decreasing age-specific breeding probability and reproductive performance with RA. As a result, males had slightly lower age-specific reproductive values than females, while birds of both sexes that recruited at the earliest ages of 2 and 3 years (i.e. 54% of the tern population) had somewhat higher fitness prospects than birds recruiting at later ages. While the RA effects on breeding probability and reproductive performance were statistically significant, these effects were not large enough to translate to significant effects on reproductive value. Age-specific reproductive values provided evidence for senescence, which came with fitness costs in a range of 17-21% for the sex-RA groups. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation in reproductive value may exist, but that, in the common tern, the differences are small. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Impact of vitamin A supplementation on infant and childhood mortality

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Vitamin A is important for the integrity and regeneration of respiratory and gastrointestinal epithelia and is involved in regulating human immune function. It has been shown previously that vitamin A has a preventive effect on all-cause and disease specific mortality in children under five. The purpose of this paper was to get a point estimate of efficacy of vitamin A supplementation in reducing cause specific mortality by using Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) guidelines. Methods A literature search was done on PubMed, Cochrane Library and WHO regional data bases using various free and Mesh terms for vitamin A and mortality. Data were abstracted into standardized forms and quality of studies was assessed according to standardized guidelines. Pooled estimates were generated for preventive effect of vitamin A supplementation on all-cause and disease specific mortality of diarrhea, measles, pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis. We did a subgroup analysis for vitamin A supplementation in neonates, infants 1-6 months and children aged 6-59 months. In this paper we have focused on estimation of efficacy of vitamin A supplementation in children 6-59 months of age. Results for neonatal vitamin A supplementation have been presented, however no recommendations are made as more evidence on it would be available soon. Results There were 21 studies evaluating preventive effect of vitamin A supplementation in community settings which reported all-cause mortality. Twelve of these also reported cause specific mortality for diarrhea and pneumonia and six reported measles specific mortality. Combined results from six studies showed that neonatal vitamin A supplementation reduced all-cause mortality by 12 % [Relative risk (RR) 0.88; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.98]. There was no effect of vitamin A supplementation in reducing all-cause mortality in infants 1-6 months of age [RR 1.05; 95 % CI 0.88-1.26]. Pooled results for preventive vitamin A supplementation showed that it reduced all-cause mortality by 25% [RR 0.75; 95 % CI 0.64-0.88] in children 6-59 months of age. Vitamin A supplementation also reduced diarrhea specific mortality by 30% [RR 0.70; 95 % CI 0.58-0.86] in children 6-59 months. This effect has been recommended for inclusion in the Lives Saved Tool. Vitamin A supplementation had no effect on measles [RR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.43-1.16], meningitis [RR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.22-2.48] and pneumonia [RR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.67-1.30] specific mortality. Conclusion Preventive vitamin A supplementation reduces all-cause and diarrhea specific mortality in children 6-59 months of age in community settings in developing countries. PMID:21501438

Risk of thyroid cancer in first-degree relatives of patients with non-medullary thyroid cancer by histology type and age at diagnosis: a joint study from five Nordic countries.

PubMed

Fallah, Mahdi; Pukkala, Eero; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Olsen, Jörgen H; Tretli, Steinar; Sundquist, Kristina; Hemminki, Kari

2013-06-01

We aimed to estimate lifetime cumulative risk of thyroid cancer (CRTC) in first-degree relatives of patients with non-medullary thyroid cancers (NMTC), including papillary (PTC)/follicular/oxyphilic/anaplastic thyroid carcinoma, by histology and age at diagnosis in patients and their relatives. A population-based cohort of 63 495 first-degree relatives of 11 206 NMTC patients diagnosed in 1955-2009 in Nordic countries was followed for cancer incidence. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using histology-specific, age-specific, sex-specific, period-specific and country-specific incidence rates as reference. The 0-84-year CRTC in female relatives of a patient with PTC was 2%, representing a threefold increase over the general population risk (SIR=2.9, 95% CI 2.4 to 3.4; Men: CRTC=1%, SIR=2.5, 95% CI 1.9 to 3.3). When there were ≥2 PTC patients diagnosed at age <60 years in a family, CRTC for female relatives was 10% (male 24%). Twins had a 23-fold increased risk of concordant PTC. Family history of follicular/oxyphilic/anaplastic carcinoma increased CRTC in relatives to about 1-2%. Although no familial case of concordant oxyphilic/anaplastic carcinoma was found, familial risks of discordant histology types of NMTC were interchangeably high for most of the types, for example, higher risk of PTC when a first-degree relative had follicular (SIR=3.0, 95%CI 1.7 to 4.9) or anaplastic (SIR=3.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 8.4) carcinoma. The earlier a patient was diagnosed with PTC in a family, the higher was the SIR in his/her younger relatives. There was a tendency towards concordant age at diagnosis of thyroid cancer among relatives of PTC patients. This study provides clinically relevant risk estimates for family members of NMTC patients.

Mental disorders among persons with arthritis: results from the World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

He, Y.; Zhang, M.; Lin, E. H. B.; Bruffaerts, R.; Posada-Villa, J.; Angermeyer, M. C.; Levinson, D.; de Girolamo, G.; Uda, H.; Mneimneh, Z.; Benjet, C.; de Graaf, R.; Scott, K. M.; Gureje, O.; Seedat, S.; Haro, J. M.; Bromet, E. J.; Alonso, J.; Kovess, V.; Von Korff, M.; Kessler, R.

2009-01-01

Background Prior studies in the USA have reported higher rates of mental disorders among persons with arthritis but no cross-national studies have been conducted. In this study the prevalence of specific mental disorders among persons with arthritis was estimated and their association with arthritis across diverse countries assessed. Method The study was a series of cross-sectional population sample surveys. Eighteen population surveys of household-residing adults were carried out in 17 countries in different regions of the world. Most were carried out between 2001 and 2002, but others were completed as late as 2007. Mental disorders were assessed with the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health–Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI). Arthritis was ascertained by self-report. The association of anxiety disorders, mood disorders and alcohol use disorders with arthritis was assessed, controlling for age and sex. Prevalence rates for specific mental disorders among persons with and without arthritis were calculated and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals were used to estimate the association. Results After adjusting for age and sex, specific mood and anxiety disorders occurred among persons with arthritis at higher rates than among persons without arthritis. Alcohol abuse/dependence showed a weaker and less consistent association with arthritis. The pooled estimates of the age- and sex-adjusted ORs were about 1.9 for mood disorders and for anxiety disorders and about 1.5 for alcohol abuse/dependence among persons with versus without arthritis. The pattern of association between specific mood and anxiety disorders and arthritis was similar across countries. Conclusions Mood and anxiety disorders occur with greater frequency among persons with arthritis than those without arthritis across diverse countries. The strength of association of specific mood and anxiety disorders with arthritis was generally consistent across disorders and across countries. PMID:18298879

Hospitalizations associated with rotavirus gastroenteritis in Spain, 2001–2005

PubMed Central

López-de-Andrés, Ana; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; Alvaro-Meca, Alejandro; Galarza, Patricia Graciela; de Miguel, Ángel Gil

2008-01-01

Background This study aims to describe and analyze hospital admissions in Spain due to rotavirus infections among children aged 5 years or under during the period 2001–2005, along with the associated health cost. Methods To update estimates of rotavirus hospitalizations rates in Spain, we conducted a retrospective study of 5 years of national hospitalization data associated with acute gastroenteritis using the Minimum Basic Data Set. Results During the study period, a total of 17.1% of all admissions due to acute gastroenteritis of any etiology in children aged ≤ 5 years were attributable to rotavirus infection as determined by the rotavirus-specific International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision, Clinical Modification code. A mean incidence of 135 hospital admissions attributable to rotavirus per 100,000 children aged ≤ 5 years was found. Hospitalizations associated with rotavirus had a marked winter-time seasonality. The estimated cost of hospital admission attributable to rotavirus has risen from 3 million euros estimated for 2001 to almost 7 million euros estimated in 2005. Conclusion Rotavirus gastroenteritis remains an important cause of hospitalizations in Spanish children, mostly during the winter season. PMID:18397512

Assessing long-term QALYs gain from averting and reversing overweight and obesity in childhood.

PubMed

Techakehakij, Win

2016-10-01

Interventions to tackle childhood obesity have been devised in response to the rising prevalence of childhood obesity. However, efficiency of these interventions remains a concern. Cost-utility analysis, representing health benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), is a type of economic evaluation that has widely been recommended in assessing efficiency of health interventions. However, certain limitations in using QALYs remain specifically difficult in QALYs estimation. This study estimates the long-term QALYs gain from reversing childhood obesity in Thailand. An economic model was developed to estimate long-term QALYs of the youth aged 3-18 for the BMI status in childhood, which were categorized into three groups: normal weight, overweight, and obese. Long-term QALYs were estimated between ages 35 and 100, according to children's age, sex, and BMI status. Differences in QALYs between BMI status groups were calculated to represent the QALYs gain for youth from reversing obesity and overweight. The future outcomes were discounted at 3 % per annum in the base-case analysis; the discount rates of 0, 1.5, 3.5, and 5 % were also applied in the sensitivity analyses. QALYs gained from reversing childhood obesity increase with age, starting from 0.040 and 0.083 QALYs at age 3 to 0.590 and 0.553 QALYs at age 18 in boys and girls, respectively. Reversing overweight and obesity in girls produces more QALYs than in boys between ages 3 and 17. Efficiency is an important issue in allocating public healthcare resources to maximize social benefits. The results of this study facilitate long-term QALYs estimation with respect to BMI status in childhood, which could encourage more routine economic evaluation of child obesity interventions and maximize their health benefits.

Trends in stage-specific incidence of prostate cancer in Norway, 1980-2010: a population-based study.

PubMed

Møller, Mette H; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Beisland, Christian; Rørvik, Jarle; Støvring, Henrik

2016-10-01

To estimate changes in the stage distribution of prostate cancer during the time period where opportunistic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing was introduced. Cancer stage, age, and year of diagnosis were obtained for all men aged >50 years diagnosed with prostate cancer in Norway during the period 1980-2010. Three calendar-time periods (1980-1989, 1990-2000, and 2001-2010) and three age groups (50-65, 66-74, and ≥75 years) were defined. Birth cohorts were categorised into four intervals: ≤1915, 1916-1925, 1926-1940 and ≥1941. We used Poisson regressions to conduct both a time period and cohort-based analysis of trends in the incidence of localised, regional, and distant cancer for each combination of age groups and calendar-time periods or birth cohorts, respectively. Additionally, we explored the effect of cohorts on the stage-specific incidence graphically with a Poisson regression using 5-year age groups, and by estimating cumulative incidence rates for each birth cohort. The annual incidence of localised cancers among men aged 50-65 and 66-74 years rose from 41.4 and 255.2 per 100 000, respectively, before the introduction of PSA testing to 137.9 and 418.7 in 2001-2010 afterwards, corresponding to 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-3.5] and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6-1.7) fold increases. The incidence of regional cancers increased by a factor seven among men aged <75 years. The incidence of distant cancers in men aged ≥75 years decreased by 29% (95% CI 25-33%). These findings were confirmed in the cohort-based approach. Opportunistic PSA testing substantially increased the incidence of localised and regional prostate cancers among men aged 50-74 years, which was not fully compensated by the 30% decrease in incidence of distant prostate cancers in older men. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating the Proportion of Childhood Cancer Cases and Costs Attributable to the Environment in California.

PubMed

Nelson, Lauren; Valle, Jhaqueline; King, Galatea; Mills, Paul K; Richardson, Maxwell J; Roberts, Eric M; Smith, Daniel; English, Paul

2017-05-01

To estimate the proportion of cases and costs of the most common cancers among children aged 0 to 14 years (leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system tumors) that were attributable to preventable environmental pollution in California in 2013. We conducted a literature review to identify preventable environmental hazards associated with childhood cancer. We combined risk estimates with California-specific exposure prevalence estimates to calculate hazard-specific environmental attributable fractions (EAFs). We combined hazard-specific EAFs to estimate EAFs for each cancer and calculated an overall EAF. Estimated economic costs included annual (indirect and direct medical) and lifetime costs. Hazards associated with childhood cancer risks included tobacco smoke, residential exposures, and parental occupational exposures. Estimated EAFs for leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system cancer were 21.3% (range = 11.7%-30.9%), 16.1% (range = 15.0%-17.2%), and 2.0% (range = 1.7%-2.2%), respectively. The combined EAF was 15.1% (range = 9.4%-20.7%), representing $18.6 million (range = $11.6 to $25.5 million) in annual costs and $31 million in lifetime costs. Reducing environmental hazards and exposures in California could substantially reduce the human burden of childhood cancer and result in significant annual and lifetime savings.

The Hispanic mortality advantage and ethnic misclassification on US death certificates.

PubMed

Arias, Elizabeth; Eschbach, Karl; Schauman, William S; Backlund, Eric L; Sorlie, Paul D

2010-04-01

We tested the data artifact hypothesis regarding the Hispanic mortality advantage by investigating whether and to what degree this advantage is explained by Hispanic origin misclassification on US death certificates. We used the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which links Current Population Survey records to death certificates for 1979 through 1998, to estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and net ascertainment of Hispanic ethnicity on death certificates compared with survey classifications. Using national vital statistics mortality data, we estimated Hispanic age-specific and age-adjusted death rates, which were uncorrected and corrected for death certificate misclassification, and produced death rate ratios comparing the Hispanic with the non-Hispanic White population. Hispanic origin reporting on death certificates in the United States is reasonably good. The net ascertainment of Hispanic origin is just 5% higher on survey records than on death certificates. Corrected age-adjusted death rates for Hispanics are lower than those for the non-Hispanic White population by close to 20%. The Hispanic mortality paradox is not explained by an incongruence between ethnic classification in vital registration and population data systems.

Age-specific birth rates in women with epilepsy: a population-based study.

PubMed

Farmen, Anette Huuse; Grundt, Jacob Holter; Tomson, Torbjörn; Nakken, Karl O; Nakling, Jakob; Mowinchel, Petter; Øie, Merete; Lossius, Morten I

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate birth rates and use of hormonal contraception in different age groups among women with epilepsy (WWE) in comparison to women without epilepsy. Demographic data and medical information on more than 25,000 pregnant women (40,000 births), representing 95% of all pregnancies in Oppland County, Norway, were registered in the Oppland Perinatal Database in the period 1989-2011. Data were analyzed with respect to epilepsy diagnoses, and 176 women with a validated epilepsy diagnosis (303 pregnancies) were identified. Age-specific birth rates in these women were estimated and compared with age-specific birth rates in women without epilepsy in the same county. In WWE over 25 years of age, birth rates were significantly lower than in those of the same age group without epilepsy. In women below 20 years of age, birth rates were similar in those with and without epilepsy. The use of hormonal contraceptives prior to pregnancy was lower among WWE under 25 years than in the corresponding age group without epilepsy. Health professionals who counsel WWE who are of fertile age should be aware of the strongly reduced birth rates in WWE over 25 years of age, and the lower rates of use of contraceptives among young WWE.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer’s disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies. PMID:27478326

Cancer Risk in Relatives of Testicular Cancer Patients by Histology Type and Age at Diagnosis: A Joint Study from Five Nordic Countries.

PubMed

Kharazmi, Elham; Hemminki, Kari; Pukkala, Eero; Sundquist, Kristina; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Tretli, Steinar; Olsen, Jörgen H; Fallah, Mahdi

2015-08-01

None of the population-based epidemiologic studies to date has had a large enough sample size to show the familial risk of testicular cancer (TC) by age at diagnosis for patients and their relatives or for rare histologic subtypes. To estimate absolute and relative risks of TC in relatives of TC patients by age at diagnosis in patients and their relatives and histological subtypes. In a joint population-based cohort study, 97 402 first-degree relatives of 21 254 TC patients who were diagnosed between 1955 and 2010 in five European countries were followed for cancer incidence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated using histology-, age-, period-, and country-specific incidence rates as references. Lifetime cumulative risks were also calculated. The lifetime cumulative risk of TC in brothers of a patient with TC was 2.3%, which represents a fourfold increase in risk (SIR 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.6-4.6) compared to the general population. TC in a father increased the risk by up to twofold in his son (95% CI 1.7-2.4; lifetime risk 1.2%) and vice versa. When there were two or more TC patients diagnosed in a family, the lifetime TC risk for relatives was 10-11%. Depending on age at diagnosis, twins had a 9-74% lifetime risk of TC. Family history of most of the histologic subtypes of TC increased the risk of concordant and most discordant subtypes. There was a tendency toward concordant age at diagnosis of TC among relatives. This study provides clinically relevant age-specific cancer risk estimates for relatives of TC patients. Familial TC patients tended to develop TC at an age close to the age at diagnosis of TC among their relatives, which is a novel finding of this study. This joint European population study showed that sons and brothers of testicular cancer patients are at higher risk of developing this cancer at an age close to the age at diagnosis of their relatives. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Trends in incidence of borderline ovarian tumors in Denmark 1978-2006.

PubMed

Hannibal, Charlotte Gerd; Huusom, Lene Drasbek; Kjaerbye-Thygesen, Anette; Tabor, Ann; Kjaer, Susanne K

2011-04-01

To examine period-, age- and histology-specific trends in the incidence rate of borderline ovarian tumors in Denmark in 1978-2006. Register-based cohort study. Denmark 1978-2006. 5079 women diagnosed with a borderline ovarian tumor in at least one of two nationwide registries (4312 epithelial tumors and 767 non-epithelial/unspecified tumors). Estimation of overall incidence rates and period-, age- and histology-specific incidence rates. Age-adjustment was done using the World Standard POPULATION. To evaluate incidence trends over time, we estimated average annual percentage change and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using log-linear Poisson models. Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates and average annual percentage change. The incidence of epithelial borderline ovarian tumors increased from 2.6 to 5.5 per 100,000 women-years between 1978 and 2006, with an average annual percentage change of 2.6% (95% CI: 2.2-3.0). The median age at diagnosis was 52 years. Women 40 years or older had a higher average annual percentage change than women younger than 40 years. Most tumors were mucinous (49.9%) and serous tumors (44.4%). Women with mucinous tumors were younger at diagnosis (50 years) compared with women with serous tumors (53 years). Women with serous tumors had a higher average annual percentage incidence change than women with mucinous tumors. The incidence rate of borderline ovarian tumors increased significantly in Denmark in 1978-2006. In line with results for ovarian cancer, Denmark had a higher incidence rate of borderline ovarian tumors compared with the other Nordic countries in 1978-2006. © 2011 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2011 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of 30-year risk for cardiovascular mortality by fitness and risk factor levels: the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Wickramasinghe, Chanaka D; Ayers, Colby R; Das, Sandeep; de Lemos, James A; Willis, Benjamin L; Berry, Jarett D

2014-07-01

Fitness and traditional risk factors have well-known associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD) death in both short-term (10 years) and across the remaining lifespan. However, currently available short-term and long-term risk prediction tools do not incorporate measured fitness. We included 16 533 participants from the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study (CCLS) without prior CVD. Fitness was measured using the Balke protocol. Sex-specific fitness levels were derived from the Balke treadmill times and categorized into low, intermediate, and high fit according to age- and sex-specific treadmill times. Sex-specific 30-year risk estimates for CVD death adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death were estimated using the cause-specific hazards model and included age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fitness, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, and smoking. During a median follow-up period of 28 years, there were 1123 CVD deaths. The 30-year risk estimates for CVD mortality derived from the cause-specific hazards model demonstrated overall good calibration (Nam-D'Agostino χ(2) [men, P=0.286; women, P=0.664] and discrimination (c statistic; men, 0.81 [0.80-0.82] and women, 0.86 [0.82-0.91]). Across all risk factor strata, the presence of low fitness was associated with a greater 30-year risk for CVD death. Fitness represents an important additional covariate in 30-year risk prediction functions that may serve as a useful tool in clinical practice. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Age, growth, and natural mortality of schoolmaster (Lutjanus apodus) from the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Potts, Jennifer C; Burton, Michael L; Myers, Amanda R

2016-01-01

Ages of schoolmaster ( n = 136) from the southeastern Florida coast from 1981-2015 were determined using sectioned sagittal otoliths. Opaque zones were annular, forming March-July (peaking in May-June). Schoolmaster ranged in age from 1-42 years; the largest fish measured 505 mm total length (TL) and was 19 years old. The oldest fish measured 440 mm TL. Estimated body size relationships for schoolmaster were: W = 9.26 × 10 -6 TL 3.11 ( n = 256, r 2 = 0.95); W = 2.13 × 10 -5 FL 2.99 ( n = 161, r 2 = 0.95); TL = 1.03 FL + 10.36 ( n = 143, r 2 = 0.99); and FL = 0.96 TL - 8.41 ( n = 143, r 2 = 0.99), where W = whole weight in g, FL = fork length in mm, and TL in mm. The fitted von Bertalanffy growth equation was: L t = 482 (1 - e -0.12( t +2.79) ) ( n = 136). Based on published life history relationships, a point estimate of natural mortality for schoolmaster was M = 0.10, while age-specific estimates of M ranged from 1.57-0.18 for ages 1-42.

Do U.S. States’ Socioeconomic and Policy Contexts Shape Adult Disability?

PubMed Central

Hayward, Mark D.; Wolf, Douglas A.

2017-01-01

Growing disparities in adult mortality across U.S. states point to the importance of assessing disparities in other domains of health. Here, we estimate state-level differences in disability, and draw on the WHO socio-ecological framework to assess the role of ecological factors in explaining these differences. Our study is based on data from 5.5 million adults aged 25–94 years in the 2010–2014 waves of the American Community Survey. Disability is defined as difficulty with mobility, independent living, self-care, vision, hearing, or cognition. We first provide estimates of age-standardized and age-specific disability prevalence by state. We then estimate multilevel models to assess how states’ socioeconomic and policy contexts shape the probability of having a disability. Age-standardized disability prevalence differs markedly by state, from 12.9% in North Dakota and Minnesota to 23.5% in West Virginia. Disability was lower in states with stronger economic output, more income equality, longer histories of tax credits for low-income workers, and higher cigarette taxes (for middle-age women), net of individuals’ socio-demographic characteristics. States’ socioeconomic and policy contexts appear particularly important for older adults. Findings underscore the importance of socio-ecological influences on disability. PMID:28219027

Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales

PubMed Central

Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

2014-01-01

Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R2 of 0.787 (P = 3.04e−16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent–offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. PMID:24606053

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanafiah, Hazlenah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2013-11-01

In recent years, the study of fertility has been getting a lot of attention among research abroad following fear of deterioration of fertility led by the rapid economy development. Hence, this study examines the feasibility of developing fertility forecasts based on age structure. Lee Carter model (1992) is applied in this study as it is an established and widely used model in analysing demographic aspects. A singular value decomposition approach is incorporated with an ARIMA model to estimate age specific fertility rates in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1958-2007. Residual plots is used to measure the goodness of fit of the model. Fertility index forecast using random walk drift is then utilised to predict the future age specific fertility. Results indicate that the proposed model provides a relatively good and reasonable data fitting. In addition, there is an apparent and continuous decline in age specific fertility curves in the next 10 years, particularly among mothers' in their early 20's and 40's. The study on the fertility is vital in order to maintain a balance between the population growth and the provision of facilities related resources.

Use of state cancer surveillance data to estimate the cancer burden in disaster-affected areas--Hurricane Katrina, 2005.

PubMed

Joseph, Djenaba A; Wingo, Phyllis A; King, Jessica B; Pollack, Lori A; Richardson, Lisa C; Wu, Xiaocheng; Chen, Vivien; Austin, Harland D; Rogers, Deirdre; Cook, Janice

2007-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of cancer in counties affected by Hurricane Katrina using population-based cancer registry data, and to discuss issues related to cancer patients who have been displaced by disasters. The cancer burden was assessed in 75 counties in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi that were designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as eligible for individual and public assistance. Data from the National Program of Cancer Registries were used to determine three-year average annual age-adjusted incidence rates and case counts during the diagnosis years 2000-2002 for Louisiana and Alabama. Expected rates and counts for the most-affected counties in Mississippi were estimated by direct, age-specific calculation using the 2000-2002 county level populations and the site-, sex-, race-, and age-specific cancer incidence rates for Louisiana. An estimated 23,549 persons with a new diagnosis of cancer in the past year resided in the disaster-affected counties. Fifty-eight percent of the cases were cancers of the lung/bronchus, colon/rectum, female breast, and prostate. Eleven of the top 15 cancer sites by sex and black/white race in disaster counties had >50% of cases diagnosed at the regional or distant stage. Sizable populations of persons with a recent cancer diagnosis were potentially displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Cancer patients required special attention to access records in order to confirm diagnosis and staging, minimize disruption in treatment, and ensure coverage of care. Cancer registry data can be used to provide disaster planners and clinicians with estimates of the number of cancer patients, many of whom may be undergoing active treatment.

Preventable health and cost burden of adverse birth outcomes associated with pregestational diabetes in the United States.

PubMed

Peterson, Cora; Grosse, Scott D; Li, Rui; Sharma, Andrea J; Razzaghi, Hilda; Herman, William H; Gilboa, Suzanne M

2015-01-01

Preconception care for women with diabetes can reduce the occurrence of adverse birth outcomes. We aimed to estimate the preconception care (PCC)-preventable health and cost burden of adverse birth outcomes associated with diagnosed and undiagnosed pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM) in the United States. Among women of reproductive age (15-44 years), we estimated age- and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes. We applied age and race/ethnicity-specific pregnancy rates, estimates of the risk reduction from PCC for 3 adverse birth outcomes (preterm birth, major birth defects, and perinatal mortality), and lifetime medical and lost productivity costs for children with those outcomes. Using a probabilistic model, we estimated the reduction in adverse birth outcomes and costs associated with universal PCC compared with no PCC among women with PGDM. We did not assess maternal outcomes and associated costs. We estimated 2.2% of US births are to women with PGDM. Among women with diagnosed diabetes, universal PCC might avert 8397 (90% prediction interval [PI], 5252-11,449) preterm deliveries, 3725 (90% PI, 3259-4126) birth defects, and 1872 (90% PI, 1239-2415) perinatal deaths annually. Associated discounted lifetime costs averted for the affected cohort of children could be as high as $4.3 billion (90% PI, 3.4-5.1 billion) (2012 US dollars). PCC among women with undiagnosed diabetes could yield an additional $1.2 billion (90% PI, 951 million-1.4 billion) in averted cost. Results suggest a substantial health and cost burden associated with PGDM that could be prevented by universal PCC, which might offset the cost of providing such care. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Córdoba, Argentina.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Osella, Alberto Rubén; Eynard, Aldo Renato; Niclis, Camila; Diaz, María del Pilar

2009-12-01

Colorectal cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide for men and women, and one of the most commonly diagnosed in Córdoba, Argentina. The aim of this work was to provide an up-to-date approach to descriptive epidemiology of colorectal cancer in Córdoba throughout the estimation of mortality trends in the period 1986-2006, using Joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) models. Age-standardized (world population) mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35-64 years), were calculated and Joinpoint regression performed to compute the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Poisson sequential models were fitted to estimate the effect of age (11 age groups), period (1986-1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000 or 2001-2006) and cohort (13 ten-years cohorts overlapping each other by five-years) on colorectal cancer mortality rates. ASMR showed an overall significant decrease (EAPC -0.9 95%CI: -1.7, -0.2) for women, being more noticeable from 1996 onwards (EAPC -2.1 95%CI: -4.0, -0.1). Age-effect showed an important rise in both sexes, but more evident in males. Birth cohort- and period effects reflected increasing and decreasing tendencies for men and women, respectively. Differences in mortality rates were found according to sex and could be related to age-period-cohort effects linked to the ageing process, health care and lifestyle. Further research is needed to elucidate the specific age-, period- and cohort-related factors.

How to estimate site index for oaks in the Missouri Ozarks

Treesearch

Robert A. McQuilkin

1978-01-01

How well does a certain tree species grow on a specific tract of land? Foresters traditionally answer this question in terms of "site index"--the average height of dominant and codominant trees at age 50 years in fully stocked, even-aged stands. Site index is widely used as an index of site quality because it is easy to measure and because it correlates well...

Education and Learning for the Elderly: Why, How, What

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boulton-Lewis, Gillian M.

2010-01-01

This paper is concerned with the general issues of ageing, learning, and education for the elderly. It also examines the more specific issues of why, how and what elders want to learn. The world's population is ageing rapidly. For example, it is estimated that by 2020 20% of the population in the USA will be 65 years old and over. It is predicted…

National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

PubMed

Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

2015-09-19

Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes. Approximately 1 in 50 males and 1 in 120 females who are alive on their 15th birthday will die by age 40. By examining the same cohort at risk, we compared risks for multiple outcomes without differential inter-cohort biases. These epidemiological profiles will inform further research into the pathways leading to these adverse events and future preventive strategies.

Validity of Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis to Estimation Fat-Free Mass in the Army Cadets.

PubMed

Langer, Raquel D; Borges, Juliano H; Pascoa, Mauro A; Cirolini, Vagner X; Guerra-Júnior, Gil; Gonçalves, Ezequiel M

2016-03-11

Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) is a fast, practical, non-invasive, and frequently used method for fat-free mass (FFM) estimation. The aims of this study were to validate predictive equations of BIA to FFM estimation in Army cadets and to develop and validate a specific BIA equation for this population. A total of 396 males, Brazilian Army cadets, aged 17-24 years were included. The study used eight published predictive BIA equations, a specific equation in FFM estimation, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Student's t-test (for paired sample), linear regression analysis, and Bland-Altman method were used to test the validity of the BIA equations. Predictive BIA equations showed significant differences in FFM compared to DXA (p < 0.05) and large limits of agreement by Bland-Altman. Predictive BIA equations explained 68% to 88% of FFM variance. Specific BIA equations showed no significant differences in FFM, compared to DXA values. Published BIA predictive equations showed poor accuracy in this sample. The specific BIA equations, developed in this study, demonstrated validity for this sample, although should be used with caution in samples with a large range of FFM.

Twins and non-twin siblings: different estimates of shared environmental influence in early childhood.

PubMed

Koeppen-Schomerus, Gesina; Spinath, Frank M; Plomin, Robert

2003-04-01

Twin studies typically indicate shared environmental influence for cognitive abilities, especially in early childhood. However, across studies, DZ twin correlations tend to be greater than non-twin sibling correlations, suggesting that twin estimates of shared environment are to some extent specific to twins. We tested this hypothesis in a sample of more than 1800 MZ and 1800 same-sex DZ pairs from the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS), a study of twins born in England and Wales in 1994 and 1995. For this analysis, we obtained comparable data from more than 130 same-sex younger siblings of the twins. Twins and their younger siblings were assessed for language, cognitive abilities and behavior problems by their parents at 2 and 3 years of age. For language and cognitive measures at both 2 and 3 years, but not for behavior problems, estimates of shared environment were more than twice as large for twins as compared to non-twin siblings. We conclude that about half of twin study estimates of shared environment for cognitive abilities in early childhood are specific to twins. Although many possibilities exist for explaining the special shared environment effect for twins, we suggest that cognitive-relevant experiences that are not shared by siblings are shared by twins because they are exactly the same age.

Age-Specific Associations Between Violence Exposure and Past 30-Day Marijuana and Alcohol Use.

PubMed

Goldstick, Jason E; Heinze, Justin E; Stoddard, Sarah A; Cunningham, Rebecca M; Zimmerman, Marc A

2018-04-23

Using data from a cohort study of students at risk for high school dropout, we examined associations between violence exposure and past 30-day alcohol and marijuana use. We used varying-coefficient regression with person-level fixed effects to estimate how those associations changed within-person across ages approximately 14-23. Generally, violence perpetration was most strongly associated with substance use, within-person. Substance use became increasingly associated with both observed violence and violence perpetration during early/middle adolescence; this increase continued longer into development (age 18+) for alcohol use. Across most of the age range studied here, violence victimization was minimally associated with within-person changes in substance use. Results indicate age-specific associations between violence exposure and alcohol and other drug use, which may be useful for informing prevention strategies. © 2018 Society for Research on Adolescence.

Growth characteristics and Otolith analysis on Age-0 American Shad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauter, Sally T.; Wetzel, Lisa A.

2011-01-01

Otolith microstructure analysis provides useful information on the growth history of fish (Campana and Jones 1992, Bang and Gronkjaer 2005). Microstructure analysis can be used to construct the size-at-age growth trajectory of fish, determine daily growth rates, and estimate hatch date and other ecologically important life history events (Campana and Jones 1992, Tonkin et al. 2008). This kind of information can be incorporated into bioenergetics modeling, providing necessary data for estimating prey consumption, and guiding the development of empirically-based modeling scenarios for hypothesis testing. For example, age-0 American shad co-occur with emigrating juvenile fall Chinook salmon originating from Hanford Reach and the Snake River in the lower Columbia River reservoirs during the summer and early fall. The diet of age-0 American shad appears to overlap with that of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Chapter 1, this report), but juvenile fall Chinook salmon are also known to feed on age-0 American shad in the reservoirs (USGS unpublished data). Abundant, energy-dense age-0 American shad may provide juvenile fall Chinook salmon opportunities for rapid growth during the time period when large numbers of age-0 American shad are available. Otolith analysis of hatch dates and the growth curve of age-0 American shad could be used to identify when eggs, larvae, and juveniles of specific size classes are temporally available as food for fall Chinook salmon in the lower Columbia River reservoirs. This kind of temporally and spatially explicit life history information is important to include in bioenergetics modeling scenarios. Quantitative estimates of prey consumption could be used with spatially-explicit estimates of prey abundance to construct a quantitative assessment of the age-0 American shad impact on a reservoir food web.

Quantile rank maps: a new tool for understanding individual brain development.

PubMed

Chen, Huaihou; Kelly, Clare; Castellanos, F Xavier; He, Ye; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Reiss, Philip T

2015-05-01

We propose a novel method for neurodevelopmental brain mapping that displays how an individual's values for a quantity of interest compare with age-specific norms. By estimating smoothly age-varying distributions at a set of brain regions of interest, we derive age-dependent region-wise quantile ranks for a given individual, which can be presented in the form of a brain map. Such quantile rank maps could potentially be used for clinical screening. Bootstrap-based confidence intervals are proposed for the quantile rank estimates. We also propose a recalibrated Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting group differences in the age-varying distribution. This test is shown to be more robust to model misspecification than a linear regression-based test. The proposed methods are applied to brain imaging data from the Nathan Kline Institute Rockland Sample and from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) sample. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The psychometric properties, sensitivity and specificity of the geriatric anxiety inventory, hospital anxiety and depression scale, and rating anxiety in dementia scale in aged care residents.

PubMed

Creighton, Alexandra S; Davison, Tanya E; Kissane, David W

2018-02-22

Limited research has been conducted into the identification of a valid and reliable screening measure for anxiety in aged care settings, despite it being one of the most common psychological conditions. This study aimed to determine an appropriate anxiety screening tool for aged care by comparing the reliability and validity of three commonly used measures and identifying specific cut-offs for the identification of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). One-hundred and eighty nursing home residents (M age = 85.39 years) completed the GAI, HADS-A, and RAID, along with a structured diagnostic interview. Twenty participants (11.1%) met DSM-5 criteria for GAD. All measures had good psychometric properties , although reliability estimates for the HADS-A were sub-optimal. Privileging sensitivity , the GAI cut-off score of 9 gave sensitivity of 90.0% and specificity of 86.3%; HADS-A cut-off of 6 gave sensitivity of 90.0% and specificity of 80.6%; and RAID cut-off of 11 gave sensitivity of 85.0% and specificity of 72.5%. While all three measures had adequate reliability, validity, and cut-scores with high levels of sensitivity and specificity to detect anxiety within aged care, the GAI was the most consistently reliable and valid measure for screening for GAD.

Prevalence of Hearing Loss by Severity in the United States.

PubMed

Goman, Adele M; Lin, Frank R

2016-10-01

To estimate the age- and severity-specific prevalence of hearing impairment in the United States. We conducted cross-sectional analyses of 2001 through 2010 data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey on 9648 individuals aged 12 years or older. Hearing loss was defined as mild (> 25 dB through 40 dB), moderate (> 40 dB through 60 dB), severe (> 60 dB through 80 dB), or profound (> 80 dB). An estimated 25.4 million, 10.7 million, 1.8 million, and 0.4 million US residents aged 12 years or older, respectively, have mild, moderate, severe, and profound better-ear hearing loss. Older individuals displayed a higher prevalence of hearing loss and more severe levels of loss. Across most ages, the prevalence was higher among Hispanic and non-Hispanic Whites than among non-Hispanic Blacks and was higher among men than women. Hearing loss directly affects 23% of Americans aged 12 years or older. The majority of these individuals have mild hearing loss; however, moderate loss is more prevalent than mild loss among individuals aged 80 years or older. Our estimates can inform national public health initiatives on hearing loss and help guide policy recommendations currently being discussed at the Institute of Medicine and the White House.

Assessment of cortical bone fracture resistance curves by fusing artificial neural networks and linear regression.

PubMed

Vukicevic, Arso M; Jovicic, Gordana R; Jovicic, Milos N; Milicevic, Vladimir L; Filipovic, Nenad D

2018-02-01

Bone injures (BI) represents one of the major health problems, together with cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Assessment of the risks associated with BI is nontrivial since fragility of human cortical bone is varying with age. Due to restrictions for performing experiments on humans, only a limited number of fracture resistance curves (R-curves) for particular ages have been reported in the literature. This study proposes a novel decision support system for the assessment of bone fracture resistance by fusing various artificial intelligence algorithms. The aim was to estimate the R-curve slope, toughness threshold and stress intensity factor using the two input parameters commonly available during a routine clinical examination: patients age and crack length. Using the data from the literature, the evolutionary assembled Artificial Neural Network was developed and used for the derivation of Linear regression (LR) models of R-curves for arbitrary age. Finally, by using the patient (age)-specific LR models and diagnosed crack size one could estimate the risk of bone fracture under given physiological conditions. Compared to the literature, we demonstrated improved performances for estimating nonlinear changes of R-curve slope (R 2 = 0.82 vs. R 2 = 0.76) and Toughness threshold with ageing (R 2 = 0.73 vs. R 2 = 0.66).

Estimating the burden of rubella virus infection and congenital rubella syndrome through a rubella immunity assessment among pregnant women in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Potential impact on vaccination policy.

PubMed

Alleman, Mary M; Wannemuehler, Kathleen A; Hao, Lijuan; Perelygina, Ludmila; Icenogle, Joseph P; Vynnycky, Emilia; Fwamba, Franck; Edidi, Samuel; Mulumba, Audry; Sidibe, Kassim; Reef, Susan E

2016-12-12

Rubella-containing vaccines (RCV) are not yet part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) vaccination program; however RCV introduction is planned before 2020. Because documentation of DRC's historical burden of rubella virus infection and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) has been minimal, estimates of the burden of rubella virus infection and of CRS would help inform the country's strategy for RCV introduction. A rubella antibody seroprevalence assessment was conducted using serum collected during 2008-2009 from 1605 pregnant women aged 15-46years attending 7 antenatal care sites in 3 of DRC's provinces. Estimates of age- and site-specific rubella antibody seroprevalence, population, and fertility rates were used in catalytic models to estimate the incidence of CRS per 100,000 live births and the number of CRS cases born in 2013 in DRC. Overall 84% (95% CI 82, 86) of the women tested were estimated to be rubella antibody seropositive. The association between age and estimated antibody seroprevalence, adjusting for study site, was not significant (p=0.10). Differences in overall estimated seroprevalence by study site were observed indicating variation by geographical area (p⩽0.03 for all). Estimated seroprevalence was similar for women declaring residence in urban (84%) versus rural (83%) settings (p=0.67). In 2013 for DRC nationally, the estimated incidence of CRS was 69/100,000 live births (95% CI 0, 186), corresponding to 2886 infants (95% CI 342, 6395) born with CRS. In the 3 provinces, rubella virus transmission is endemic, and most viral exposure and seroconversion occurs before age 15years. However, approximately 10-20% of the women were susceptible to rubella virus infection and thus at risk for having an infant with CRS. This analysis can guide plans for introduction of RCV in DRC. Per World Health Organization recommendations, introduction of RCV should be accompanied by a campaign targeting all children 9months to 14years of age as well as vaccination of women of child bearing age through routine services. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Eastern Baltic region vs. Western Europe: modelling age related changes in the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface.

PubMed

Jatautis, Šarūnas; Jankauskas, Rimantas

2018-02-01

Objectives. The present study addresses the following two main questions: a) Is the pattern of skeletal ageing observed in well-known western European reference collections applicable to modern eastern Baltic populations, or are population-specific standards needed? b) What are the consequences for estimating the age-at-death distribution in the target population when differences in the estimates from reference data are not taken into account? Materials and methods. The dataset consists of a modern Lithuanian osteological reference collection, which is the only collection of this type in the eastern Baltic countries (n = 381); and two major western European reference collections, Coimbra (n = 264) and Spitalfields (n = 239). The age-related changes were evaluated using the scoring systems of Suchey-Brooks (Brooks & Suchey 1990) and Lovejoy et al. (1985), and were modelled via regression models for multinomial responses. A controlled experiment based on simulations and the Rostock Manifesto estimation protocol (Wood et al. 2002) was then carried out to assess the effect of using estimates from different reference samples and different regression models on estimates of the age-at-death distribution in the hypothetical target population. Results. The following key results were obtained in this study. a) The morphological alterations in the pubic symphysis were much faster among women than among men at comparable ages in all three reference samples. In contrast, we found no strong evidence in any of the reference samples that sex is an important factor to explain rate of changes in the auricular surface. b) The rate of ageing in the pubic symphysis seems to be similar across the three reference samples, but there is little evidence of a similar pattern in the auricular surface. That is, the estimated rate of age-related changes in the auricular surface was much faster in the LORC and the Coimbra samples than in the Spitalfields sample. c) The results of simulations showed that the differences in the estimates from the reference data result in noticeably different age-at-death distributions in the target population. Thus, a degree bias may be expected if estimates from the western European reference data are used to collect information on ages at death in the eastern Baltic region based on the changes in the auricular surface. d) Moreover, the bias is expected to be more pronounced if the fitted regression model improperly describes the reference data. Conclusions. Differences in the timing of age-related changes in skeletal traits are to be expected among European reference samples, and cannot be ignored when seeking to reliably estimate an age-at-death distribution in the target population. This form of bias should be taken into consideration in further studies of skeletal samples from the eastern Baltic region.

Validation of third molar maturity index (I3M) for discrimination of juvenile/adult status in South Indian population.

PubMed

Balla, Sudheer B; Galic, Ivan; P, Karunakar; Vanin, Stefano; De Luca, Stefano; Cameriere, Roberto

2017-07-01

Deliberate falsification of age was considered to be one of the main reasons for forensic age estimation of the living individuals. This posed to be a challenging task during criminal and legal proceedings, and ultimate care must be taken not to classify juveniles as adults. Third molars are the only developing teeth during late adolescence and early adulthood. Our study was designed to analyze the usefulness of the third molar maturity index (I 3M ) specific cut-off value (I 3M  < 0.08) to discriminate adults (≥18 years) and juveniles (<18 years) in South Indian children. 216 panoramic radiographs (114 females and 102 males) of living subjects aged between 14 and 21 years were analyzed. Our results demonstrated high sensitivity (83.3% and 90.2%) and specificity (98.3% and 95.1%) for females and males respectively. The positive likelihood ratios of being adult were 50.00 and 18.35 while the negative likelihood ratios were 0.17 and 0.10 in females and males respectively. The estimated posttest probability was 98.0% in females and 94.8% in males. The obtained results showed that the specific cut-off value of I 3M  < 0.08 may be a useful additional tool in discrimination of individuals who are around 18 years of age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

A spatial analysis of the determinants of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in Ontario (1992-2001).

PubMed

Crighton, Eric J; Elliott, Susan J; Moineddin, Rahim; Kanaroglou, Pavlos; Upshur, Ross

2007-04-01

Previous research on the determinants of pneumonia and influenza has focused primarily on the role of individual level biological and behavioural risk factors resulting in partial explanations and largely curative approaches to reducing the disease burden. This study examines the geographic patterns of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations and the role that broad ecologic-level factors may have in determining them. We conducted a county level, retrospective, ecologic study of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in the province of Ontario, Canada, between 1992 and 2001 (N=241,803), controlling for spatial dependence in the data. Non-spatial and spatial regression models were estimated using a range of environmental, social, economic, behavioural, and health care predictors. Results revealed low education to be positively associated with hospitalization rates over all age groups and both genders. The Aboriginal population variable was also positively associated in most models except for the 65+-year age group. Behavioural factors (daily smoking and heavy drinking), environmental factors (passive smoking, poor housing, temperature), and health care factors (influenza vaccination) were all significantly associated in different age and gender-specific models. The use of spatial error regression models allowed for unbiased estimation of regression parameters and their significance levels. These findings demonstrate the importance of broad age and gender-specific population-level factors in determining pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations, and illustrate the need for place and population-specific policies that take these factors into consideration.

Guillain–Barre syndrome following quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among vaccine-eligible individuals in the United States

PubMed Central

Ojha, Rohit P; Jackson, Bradford E; Tota, Joseph E; Offutt-Powell, Tabatha N; Singh, Karan P; Bae, Sejong

2014-01-01

Post-marketing surveillance studies provide conflicting evidence about whether Guillain–Barre syndrome occurs more frequently following quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4) vaccination. We aimed to assess whether Guillain–Barre syndrome is reported more frequently following HPV4 vaccination than other vaccinations among females and males aged 9 to 26 y in the United States. We used adverse event reports received by the United States Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 to estimate overall, age-, and sex-specific proportional reporting ratios (PRRs) and corresponding Χ2 values for reports of Guillain–Barre syndrome between 5 and 42 d following HPV vaccination. Minimum criteria for a signal using this approach are 3 or more cases, PRR ≥2, and Χ2 ≥ 4. Guillain–Barre syndrome was listed as an adverse event in 45 of 14 822 reports, of which 9 reports followed HPV4 vaccination and 36 reports followed all other vaccines. The overall, age-, and sex-specific PRR estimates were uniformly below 1. In addition, the overall, age-, and sex-specific Χ2 values were uniformly below 3. Our analysis of post-marketing surveillance data does not suggest that Guillain–Barre syndrome is reported more frequently following HPV4 vaccination than other vaccinations among vaccine-eligible females or males in the United States. Our findings may be useful when discussing the risks and benefits of HPV4 vaccination. PMID:24013368

Guillain-Barre syndrome following quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among vaccine-eligible individuals in the United States.

PubMed

Ojha, Rohit P; Jackson, Bradford E; Tota, Joseph E; Offutt-Powell, Tabatha N; Singh, Karan P; Bae, Sejong

2014-01-01

Post-marketing surveillance studies provide conflicting evidence about whether Guillain-Barre syndrome occurs more frequently following quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4) vaccination. We aimed to assess whether Guillain-Barre syndrome is reported more frequently following HPV4 vaccination than other vaccinations among females and males aged 9 to 26 y in the United States. We used adverse event reports received by the United States Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 to estimate overall, age-, and sex-specific proportional reporting ratios (PRRs) and corresponding Χ2 values for reports of Guillain-Barre syndrome between 5 and 42 d following HPV vaccination. Minimum criteria for a signal using this approach are 3 or more cases, PRR≥2, and Χ2≥4. Guillain-Barre syndrome was listed as an adverse event in 45 of 14,822 reports, of which 9 reports followed HPV4 vaccination and 36 reports followed all other vaccines. The overall, age-, and sex-specific PRR estimates were uniformly below 1. In addition, the overall, age-, and sex-specific Χ2 values were uniformly below 3. Our analysis of post-marketing surveillance data does not suggest that Guillain-Barre syndrome is reported more frequently following HPV4 vaccination than other vaccinations among vaccine-eligible females or males in the United States. Our findings may be useful when discussing the risks and benefits of HPV4 vaccination.

Demirjian's stages and Cameriere's third molar maturity index to estimate legal adult age in Peruvian population.

PubMed

Quispe Lizarbe, Roselhy Juliana; Solís Adrianzén, Christian; Quezada-Márquez, Milushka Miroslava; Galić, Ivan; Cameriere, Roberto

2017-03-01

To compare the accuracy of Demirjian's stages (DS) and Cameriere's third molar maturity index cut-off value (I 3M <0.08) to estimate the age of majority on panoramic radiographs (OPTs) from the dental clinic of the Scientific University of the South (UCSUR), Lima, Peru. An observational cross-sectional study was conducted on the sample of 208 digital panoramic radiographs of patients aged 14-22years examined during 2015 in UCSUR. The left lower third molars were analyzed using Adobe Photoshop® CS6. An effectiveness of specific DS and I 3M <0.08 was evaluated by using accurate classification, sensitivity, specificity, positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios and Bayes post-test probability (p). Only G and H stages were practical for classify adults and minors in the tested sample, while I 3M <0.08 showed the best performance in both sexes. For I 3M <0.08, the accurate classification, sensitivity and specificity were 0.96, 0.96, 0.96 and 0.90, 0.84 and 0.95 in males and females, respectively. Values of LR+, LR- and p were 24.96, 0.04, 0.97 and 15.68, 0.17, 0.95 in males and females, respectively. The specific cut-off value of third molar maturity index (I 3M <0.08) showed to be more accurate in discriminating adults and minors in Peruvian sample when a test with high sensitivity and specificity is required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age dating and flow path evaluation of groundwater by SF6 and microbe in the foot of Mt. Fuji, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Chisato; Tsujimura, Maki; Kato, Kenji; Nagaosa, Kazuyo; Sakakibara, Koichi; Umei, Yohei; Ohara, Kazuma

2016-04-01

A variety of industries are developed at the foot of volcanic mountains in Japan and the groundwater is major source for industrial activity in those regions. The age of groundwater has been estimated to be from 10 to 30 years in Mt. Fuji regions by using 36Cl and 3H. However, the age has not been evaluated using SF6 with higher time resolution in these regions. Also, the total number of prokaryotes shows a specific value in each spring water, suggesting different path and age of the groundwater. Therefore, we aim to estimate residence time and the groundwater flow in three dimensions using the multi-tracers approach; CFCs, SF6, the total number of prokaryotes, the stable isotopes of oxygen-18, deuterium. We collected totally 25 spring water samples in Mt. Fuji and analyzed concentration of inorganic ions, the stable isotopes of oxygen-18, deuterium, CFCs, SF6. The apparent age of the spring water was estimated to be ranging from 4 to 19 years at the foot of Mt. Fuji. These results are reasonable as considering the existed age data by36Cl (Tosaki, 2008) in this region. The spring water with younger age tends to show higher total number of prokaryotes, suggesting that the groundwater flows dominantly through the shallow and young lava with the higher total number of prokaryotes, leads to younger age. Focusing on a specific spring water, the seasonal change of SF6 and total number of prokaryotes were monitored. The spring water showed a younger age and higher total number of prokaryotes during the high water flow season, whereas it showed an older age and lower total number of prokaryotes. Therefore, the total number of prokaryotes shows a good negative correlation with the residence time of the spring/ groundwater in space and time. This shows a possibility that the total number of prokaryotes could be a useful tracer of groundwater for time and space in the three dimensions information.

GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

2012-01-01

GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Would vaccination against nicotine be a cost-effective way to prevent smoking uptake in adolescents?

PubMed

Gartner, Coral E; Barendregt, Jan J; Wallace, Angela; Hall, Wayne D

2012-04-01

We used epidemiological modelling to assess whether nicotine vaccines would be a cost-effective way of preventing smoking uptake in adolescents. We built an epidemiological model using Australian data on age-specific smoking prevalence; smoking cessation and relapse rates; life-time sex-specific disability-adjusted life years lived for cohorts of 100,000 smokers and non-smokers; government data on the costs of delivering a vaccination programme by general practitioners; and a range of plausible and optimistic estimates of vaccine cost, efficacy and immune response rates based on clinical trial results. We first estimated the smoking uptake rates for Australians aged 12-19 years. We then used these estimates to predict the expected smoking prevalence in a birth cohort aged 12 in 2003 by age 20 under (i) current policy and (ii) different vaccination scenarios that varied in cost, initial vaccination uptake, yearly re-vaccination rates, efficacy and a favourable vaccine immune response rate. Under the most optimistic assumptions, the cost to avert a smoker at age 20 was $44,431 [95% confidence interval (CI) $40,023-49,250]. This increased to $296,019 (95% CI $252,307-$355,930) under more plausible scenarios. The vaccine programme was not cost-effective under any scenario. A preventive nicotine vaccination programme is unlikely to be cost-effective. The total cost of a universal vaccination programme would be high and its impact on population smoking prevalence negligible. For these reasons, such a programme is unlikely to be publicly funded in Australia or any other developed country. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

National Estimates of Emergency Department Visits for Antibiotic Adverse Events Among Adults-United States, 2011-2015.

PubMed

Geller, Andrew I; Lovegrove, Maribeth C; Shehab, Nadine; Hicks, Lauri A; Sapiano, Mathew R P; Budnitz, Daniel S

2018-04-20

Detailed, nationally representative data describing high-risk populations and circumstances involved in antibiotic adverse events (AEs) can inform approaches to prevention. Describe US burden, rates, and characteristics of emergency department (ED) visits by adults for antibiotic AEs. Nationally representative, public health surveillance of adverse drug events (National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-Cooperative Adverse Drug Event Surveillance [NEISS-CADES]) and a nationally projected database of dispensed prescriptions (QuintilesIMS), 2011-2015. Antibiotic-treated adults (≥ 20 years) seeking ED care. Estimated annual numbers and rates of ED visits for antibiotic AEs among outpatients treated with systemically administered antibiotics. Based on 10,225 cases, US adults aged ≥ 20 years made an estimated 145,490 (95% confidence interval, 115,279-175,701) ED visits for antibiotic AEs each year in 2011-2015. Antibiotics were implicated in 13.7% (12.3-15.2%) of all estimated adult ED visits for adverse drug events. Most (56.6%; 54.8-58.4%) antibiotic AE visits involved adults aged < 50 years, and 71.8% (70.4-73.1%) involved females. Accounting for prescriptions dispensed from retail and long-term care pharmacies, adults aged 20-34 years had twice the estimated rate of ED visits for oral antibiotic AEs compared with those aged ≥ 65 years (9.7 [7.6-11.8] versus 4.6 [3.6-5.7] visits per 10,000 dispensed prescriptions, respectively). Allergic reactions accounted for three quarters (74.3%; 70.0-78.6%) of estimated ED visits for antibiotic AEs. The three most frequently implicated antibiotic classes in ED visits for antibiotic AEs were oral sulfonamides (23.2%; 20.6-25.8%), penicillins (20.8%; 19.3-22.4%), and quinolones (15.7%; 14.2-17.1%). Per-prescription rates declined with increasing age group. Antibiotics are a common cause of ED visits by adults for adverse drug events and represent an important safety issue. Quantifying risks of AEs from specific antibiotics for specific patient populations, such as younger adults, provides additional information to help clinicians assess risks versus benefits when making the decision to prescribe or not prescribe an antibiotic. AE rates may also facilitate communication with patients about antibiotic risks.

Children's estimates of food portion size: the development and evaluation of three portion size assessment tools for use with children.

PubMed

Foster, E; Matthews, J N S; Lloyd, J; Marshall, L; Mathers, J C; Nelson, M; Barton, K L; Wrieden, W L; Cornelissen, P; Harris, J; Adamson, A J

2008-01-01

A number of methods have been developed to assist subjects in providing an estimate of portion size but their application in improving portion size estimation by children has not been investigated systematically. The aim was to develop portion size assessment tools for use with children and to assess the accuracy of children's estimates of portion size using the tools. The tools were food photographs, food models and an interactive portion size assessment system (IPSAS). Children (n 201), aged 4-16 years, were supplied with known quantities of food to eat, in school. Food leftovers were weighed. Children estimated the amount of each food using each tool, 24 h after consuming the food. The age-specific portion sizes represented were based on portion sizes consumed by children in a national survey. Significant differences were found between the accuracy of estimates using the three tools. Children of all ages performed well using the IPSAS and food photographs. The accuracy and precision of estimates made using the food models were poor. For all tools, estimates of the amount of food served were more accurate than estimates of the amount consumed. Issues relating to reporting of foods left over which impact on estimates of the amounts of foods actually consumed require further study. The IPSAS has shown potential for assessment of dietary intake with children. Before practical application in assessment of dietary intake of children the tool would need to be expanded to cover a wider range of foods and to be validated in a 'real-life' situation.

Respiratory syncytial virus--the unrecognised cause of health and economic burden among young children in Australia.

PubMed

Ranmuthugala, Geetha; Brown, Laurie; Lidbury, Brett A

2011-06-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents very similar to influenza and is the principle cause of bronchiolitis in infants and young children worldwide. Yet, there is no systematic monitoring of RSV activity in Australia. This study uses existing published data sources to estimate incidence, hospitalisation rates, and associated costs of RSV among young children in Australia. Published reports from the Laboratory Virology and Serology Reporting Scheme, a passive voluntary surveillance system, and the National Hospital Morbidity Dataset were used to estimate RSV-related age-specific hospitalisation rates in New South Wales and Australia. These estimates and national USA estimates of RSV-related hospitalisation rates were applied to Australian population data to estimate RSV incidence in Australia. Direct economic burden was estimated by applying cost estimates used to derive economic cost associated with the influenza virus. The estimated RSV-related hospitalisation rates ranged from 2.2-4.5 per 1,000 among children less than 5 years of age to 8.7-17.4 per 1,000 among infants. Incidence ranged from 110.0-226.5 per 1,000 among the under five age group to 435.0-869.0 per 1,000 among infants. The total annual direct healthcare cost was estimated to be between $24 million and $50 million. Comparison with the health burdens attributed to the influenza virus and rotavirus suggests that the disease burden caused by RSV is potentially much higher. The limitations associated with using a passive surveillance system to estimate disease burden, and the need to explore further assessments and to monitor RSV activity are discussed.

Clinical evaluation of the vector algorithm for neonatal hearing screening using automated auditory brainstem response.

PubMed

Keohane, Bernie M; Mason, Steve M; Baguley, David M

2004-02-01

A novel auditory brainstem response (ABR) detection and scoring algorithm, entitled the Vector algorithm is described. An independent clinical evaluation of the algorithm using 464 tests (120 non-stimulated and 344 stimulated tests) on 60 infants, with a mean age of approximately 6.5 weeks, estimated test sensitivity greater than 0.99 and test specificity at 0.87 for one test. Specificity was estimated to be greater than 0.95 for a two stage screen. Test times were of the order of 1.5 minutes per ear for detection of an ABR and 4.5 minutes per ear in the absence of a clear response. The Vector algorithm is commercially available for both automated screening and threshold estimation in hearing screening devices.

Injury-related mortality in South Africa: a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations.

PubMed

Matzopoulos, Richard; Prinsloo, Megan; Pillay-van Wyk, Victoria; Gwebushe, Nomonde; Mathews, Shanaaz; Martin, Lorna J; Laubscher, Ria; Abrahams, Naeemah; Msemburi, William; Lombard, Carl; Bradshaw, Debbie

2015-05-01

To investigate injury-related mortality in South Africa using a nationally representative sample and compare the results with previous estimates. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of medico-legal postmortem investigation data from mortuaries using a multistage random sample, stratified by urban and non-urban areas and mortuary size. We calculated age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for external causes of death. Postmortem reports revealed 52,493 injury-related deaths in 2009 (95% confidence interval, CI: 46,930-58,057). Almost half (25,499) were intentionally inflicted. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 population were as follows: all injuries: 109.0 (95% CI: 97.1-121.0); homicide 38.4 (95% CI: 33.8-43.0; suicide 13.4 (95% CI: 11.6-15.2) and road-traffic injury 36.1 (95% CI: 30.9-41.3). Using postmortem reports, we found more than three times as many deaths from homicide and road-traffic injury than had been recorded by vital registration for this period. The homicide rate was similar to the estimate for South Africa from a global analysis, but road-traffic and suicide rates were almost fourfold higher. This is the first nationally representative sample of injury-related mortality in South Africa. It provides more accurate estimates and cause-specific profiles that are not available from other sources.

Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

Learning Multiple Band-Pass Filters for Sleep Stage Estimation: Towards Care Support for Aged Persons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takadama, Keiki; Hirose, Kazuyuki; Matsushima, Hiroyasu; Hattori, Kiyohiko; Nakajima, Nobuo

This paper proposes the sleep stage estimation method that can provide an accurate estimation for each person without connecting any devices to human's body. In particular, our method learns the appropriate multiple band-pass filters to extract the specific wave pattern of heartbeat, which is required to estimate the sleep stage. For an accurate estimation, this paper employs Learning Classifier System (LCS) as the data-mining techniques and extends it to estimate the sleep stage. Extensive experiments on five subjects in mixed health confirm the following implications: (1) the proposed method can provide more accurate sleep stage estimation than the conventional method, and (2) the sleep stage estimation calculated by the proposed method is robust regardless of the physical condition of the subject.

The time-course of protection of the RTS,S vaccine against malaria infections and clinical disease.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Smith, Thomas A

2015-11-04

Recent publications have reported follow-up of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate Phase III trials at 11 African sites for 32 months (or longer). This includes site- and time-specific estimates of incidence and efficacy against clinical disease with four different vaccination schedules. These data allow estimation of the time-course of protection against infection associated with two different ages of vaccination, both with and without a booster dose. Using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, each trial cohort in the Phase III trial was simulated assuming many different hypothetical profiles for the vaccine efficacy against infection in time, for both the primary course and boosting dose and including the potential for either exponential or non-exponential decay. The underlying profile of protection was determined by Bayesian fitting of these model predictions to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria over 32 months (or longer) of follow-up. Using the same stochastic models, projections of clinical efficacy in each of the sites were modelled and compared to available observed trial data. The initial protection of RTS,S immediately following three doses is estimated as providing an efficacy against infection of 65 % (when immunizing infants aged 6-12 weeks old) and 91 % (immunizing children aged 5-17 months old at first vaccination). This protection decays relatively rapidly, with an approximately exponential decay for the 6-12 weeks old cohort (with a half-life of 7.2 months); for the 5-17 months old cohort a biphasic decay with a similar half-life is predicted, with an initial rapid decay followed by a slower decay. The boosting dose was estimated to return protection to an efficacy against infection of 50-55 % for both cohorts. Estimates of clinical efficacy by trial site are consistent with those reported in the trial for all cohorts. The site- and time-specific clinical observations from the RTS,S/AS01 trial data allowed a reasonably precise estimation of the underlying vaccine protection against infection which is consistent with common underlying efficacy and decay rates across the trial sites. This calibration suggests that the decay in efficacy against clinical disease is more rapid than that against infection because of age-shifts in the incidence of disease. The dynamical models predict that clinical effectiveness will continue to decay and that likely effects beyond the time-scale of the trial will be small.

Research protocol for an epidemiological study on estimating disease burden of pediatric HIV in Belgaum district, India.

PubMed

Sinha, Anju; Nath, Anita; Sethumadhavan, Rajeev; Isac, Shajy; Washington, Reynold

2016-05-26

Pediatric HIV is poised to become a major public health problem in India with the rising trend of HIV infection in pregnant women (Department of AIDS Control, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, http://www.naco.gov.in). There is lack of information on the epidemiology of pediatric HIV infection in India. Existing surveillance systems tend to underestimate the Pediatric burden. The overall aim of the present study is to estimate the disease burden of pediatric HIV among children in Belgaum district in the state of Karnataka in Southern India. An innovative multipronged epidemiological approach to comb the district is proposed. The primary objectives of the study would be attained under three strategies. A prospective cohort design for objective (i) to determine the incidence rate of HIV by early case detection in infants and toddlers (0-18 months) born to HIV infected pregnant women; and cross sectional design for objectives (ii) to determine the prevalence of HIV infection in children (0-14 years) of HIV infected parents and (iii) to determine the prevalence of HIV in sick children (0-14 years) presenting with suspected signs and symptoms using age specific criteria for screening. Burden of pediatric HIV will be calculated as a product of cases detected in each strategy multiplied by a net inflation factor for each strategy. Study participants (i) (ii) (iii): HIV infected pregnant women and their live born children (ii) Any HIV-infected man/woman, of age 18-49 years, having a biological child of age 0-14 years (iii) Sick children of age 0-14 years presenting with suspected signs and symptoms and satisfying age-specific criteria for screening. Setting and conduct: Belgaum district which is a Category 'A' district (with more than 1 % antenatal prevalence in the district over the last 3 years before the study). Age-appropriate testing is used to detect HIV infection. There is a need to strengthen existing pediatric HIV estimation methods in India and other developing countries. We hope that the novel methodology emanating from this study would be applicable for estimating the burden of HIV in other settings and it would be adaptable for estimating the burden of other infectious/chronic diseases. Findings from this study will give future direction to the national program for prevention and control of HIV in India and other developing countries.

Infectious reactivation of cytomegalovirus explaining age- and sex-specific patterns of seroprevalence.

PubMed

van Boven, Michiel; van de Kassteele, Jan; Korndewal, Marjolein J; van Dorp, Christiaan H; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; van der Klis, Fiona; de Melker, Hester E; Vossen, Ann C; van Baarle, Debbie

2017-09-01

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a herpes virus with poorly understood transmission dynamics. Person-to-person transmission is thought to occur primarily through transfer of saliva or urine, but no quantitative estimates are available for the contribution of different infection routes. Using data from a large population-based serological study (n = 5,179), we provide quantitative estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the transmissibility of primary infection, reactivation, and re-infection. Mixture models are fitted to age- and sex-specific antibody response data from the Netherlands, showing that the data can be described by a model with three distributions of antibody measurements, i.e. uninfected, infected, and infected with increased antibody concentration. Estimates of seroprevalence increase gradually with age, such that at 80 years 73% (95%CrI: 64%-78%) of females and 62% (95%CrI: 55%-68%) of males are infected, while 57% (95%CrI: 47%-67%) of females and 37% (95%CrI: 28%-46%) of males have increased antibody concentration. Merging the statistical analyses with transmission models, we find that models with infectious reactivation (i.e. reactivation that can lead to the virus being transmitted to a novel host) fit the data significantly better than models without infectious reactivation. Estimated reactivation rates increase from low values in children to 2%-4% per year in women older than 50 years. The results advance a hypothesis in which transmission from adults after infectious reactivation is a key driver of transmission. We discuss the implications for control strategies aimed at reducing CMV infection in vulnerable groups.

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013

PubMed Central

Cassini, Alessandro; Colzani, Edoardo; Pini, Alessandro; Mangen, Marie-Josee J; Plass, Dietrich; McDonald, Scott A; Maringhini, Guido; van Lier, Alies; Haagsma, Juanita A; Havelaar, Arie H; Kramarz, Piotr; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E

2018-01-01

Background and aims The Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25–1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control. PMID:29692315

Investigations of (Delta)14C, (delta)13C, and (delta)15N in vertebrae of white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) from the eastern North Pacific Ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, L A; Andrews, A H; Cailliet, G M

The white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) has a complex life history that is characterized by large scale movements and a highly variable diet. Estimates of age and growth for the white shark from the eastern North Pacific Ocean indicate they have a slow growth rate and a relatively high longevity. Age, growth, and longevity estimates useful for stock assessment and fishery models, however, require some form of validation. By counting vertebral growth band pairs, ages can be estimated, but because not all sharks deposit annual growth bands and many are not easily discernable, it is necessary to validate growth band periodicitymore » with an independent method. Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) age validation uses the discrete {sup 14}C signal produced from thermonuclear testing in the 1950s and 1960s that is retained in skeletal structures as a time-specific marker. Growth band pairs in vertebrae, estimated as annual and spanning the 1930s to 1990s, were analyzed for {Delta}{sup 14}C and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes ({delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N). The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of {sup 14}C age validation for a wide-ranging species with a complex life history and to use stable isotope measurements in vertebrae as a means of resolving complexity introduced into the {sup 14}C chronology by ontogenetic shifts in diet and habitat. Stable isotopes provided useful trophic position information; however, validation of age estimates was confounded by what may have been some combination of the dietary source of carbon to the vertebrae, large-scale movement patterns, and steep {sup 14}C gradients with depth in the eastern North Pacific Ocean.« less

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013.

PubMed

Cassini, Alessandro; Colzani, Edoardo; Pini, Alessandro; Mangen, Marie-Josee J; Plass, Dietrich; McDonald, Scott A; Maringhini, Guido; van Lier, Alies; Haagsma, Juanita A; Havelaar, Arie H; Kramarz, Piotr; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; On Behalf Of The BCoDE Consortium

2018-04-01

Background and aimsThe Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25-1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control.

The etiologic role of genetic and environmental factors in criminal behavior as determined from full- and half-sibling pairs: an evaluation of the validity of the twin method.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Lönn, S L; Maes, H H; Sundquist, J; Sundquist, K

2015-07-01

Twin studies have shown that criminal behavior (CB) is influenced by both genetic and shared environmental factors. Could these results be replicated using full-siblings and half-siblings? In 911 009 full-siblings reared together (FSRT), 41 872 half-siblings reared together (HSRT) and 52 590 half-siblings reared apart (HSRA), CB was assessed from the Swedish Crime Register. Modeling, including testing for age differences and rearing status, was performed using the OpenMx package. Five sibling models were fitted examining FSRT and HSRT 0-2 years different in age, and both FSRT and HSRT, and FSRT, HSRT and HSRA 0-10 years different in age with and without a specified shared environment indexing age differences. Heritability estimates for CB ranged from 33 to 55% in females and 39 to 56% in males, similar to those found in our prior twin study on the same population. Estimates for the shared environment varied from 1 to 14% in females and 10 to 23% in males, lower than those estimated in the twin study. The specified shared environment indexed by sibling age differences was significant in all models tested. Heritability estimates for CB from full- and half-siblings closely approximated those found from twins in the same population, validating the twin method. Shared environmental estimates were lower, suggesting the presence of shared environmental factors for CB specific to twins. When rearing status can be assessed, full- and half-siblings offer an additional method for assessing the role of genetic and environmental factors in complex disorders. However, age differences in siblings may need to be included in the models.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H.M.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P.; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S.; de Bruijn, Renée F.A.G.; Willems, Sara M.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G.; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S.; Moreno, Luis A.; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W.G.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H.; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Franco, Oscar H.; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S.; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Whitfield, John B.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D.; Magnusson, Patrik K.; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Nilsson, Peter M.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P.; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I.

2015-01-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10−107) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10−30). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:25712996

Impact of extending screening mammography to older women: Information to support informed choices.

PubMed

Jacklyn, Gemma; Howard, Kirsten; Irwig, Les; Houssami, Nehmat; Hersch, Jolyn; Barratt, Alexandra

2017-10-15

From 2013 through 2017, the Australian national breast cancer screening programme is gradually inviting women aged 70-74 years to attend screening, following a policy decision to extend invitations to older women. We estimate the benefits and harms of the new package of biennial screening from age 50-74 compared with the previous programme of screening from age 50-69. Using a Markov model, we applied estimates of the relative risk reduction for breast cancer mortality and the risk of overdiagnosis from the Independent UK Panel on Breast Cancer Screening review to Australian breast cancer incidence and mortality data. We estimated screening specific outcomes (recalls for further imaging, biopsies, false positives, and interval cancer rates) from data published by BreastScreen Australia. When compared with stopping at age 69, screening 1,000 women to age 74 is likely to avert one more breast cancer death, with an additional 78 women receiving a false positive result and another 28 women diagnosed with breast cancer, of whom eight will be overdiagnosed and overtreated. The extra 5 years of screening results in approximately 7 more overdiagnosed cancers to avert one more breast cancer death. Thus extending screening mammography in Australia to older women results in a less favourable harm to benefit ratio than stopping at age 69. Supporting informed decision making for this age group should be a public health priority. © 2017 UICC.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in pediatric chest CT: a study in 30 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2010-04-01

Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dosereporting system that provides radiation dose and cancer risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. Recently, we reported a method for estimating patientspecific dose from pediatric chest CT. The purpose of this study is to extend that effort to patient-specific risk estimation and to a population of pediatric CT patients. Our study included thirty pediatric CT patients (16 males and 14 females; 0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created based on the patients' clinical CT data. Using a validated Monte Carlo program, organ dose received by the thirty patients from a chest scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT, 120 kVp, 1.375 pitch, 40-mm collimation, pediatric body scan field-of-view) was simulated and used to estimate patient-specific effective dose. Risks of cancer incidence were calculated for radiosensitive organs using gender-, age-, and tissue-specific risk coefficients and were used to derive patientspecific effective risk. The thirty patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-10.4 mSv/100 mAs and normalized effective risk of 0.5-5.8 cases/1000 exposed persons/100 mAs. Normalized lung dose and risk of lung cancer correlated strongly with average chest diameter (correlation coefficient: r = -0.98 to -0.99). Normalized effective risk also correlated strongly with average chest diameter (r = -0.97 to -0.98). These strong correlations can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk prior to or after an imaging study to potentially guide healthcare providers in justifying CT examinations and to guide individualized protocol design and optimization.

Estimated Global, Regional, and National Disease Burdens Related to Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in 2010

PubMed Central

Singh, Gitanjali M.; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Lim, Stephen; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2015-01-01

Background Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are consumed globally and contribute to adiposity. However, the worldwide impact of SSBs on burdens of adiposity-related cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancers, and diabetes has not been assessed by nation, age, and sex. Methods and Results We modeled global, regional, and national burdens of disease associated with SSB consumption by age/sex in 2010. Data on SSB consumption levels were pooled from national dietary surveys worldwide. The effects of SSB intake on BMI and diabetes, and of elevated BMI on CVD, diabetes, and cancers were derived from large prospective cohort pooling studies. Disease-specific mortality/morbidity data were obtained from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We computed cause-specific population-attributable fractions for SSB consumption, which were multiplied by cause-specific mortality/morbidity to compute estimates of SSB-attributable death/disability. Analyses were done by country/age/sex; uncertainties of all input data were propagated into final estimates. Worldwide, the model estimated 184,000(95%UI=161,000–208,000) deaths/year attributable to SSB consumption: 133,000(126,000–139,000) from diabetes, 45,000(26,000–61,000) from CVD, and 6,450(4,300–8,600) from cancers. 5.0% of SSB-related deaths occurred in low-income, 70.9% in middle-income, and 24.1% in high-income countries. Proportional mortality due to SSBs ranged from <1% in Japanese >65y to 30% in Mexicans <45y. Among the 20 most populous countries, Mexico had largest absolute (405 deaths/million adults) and proportional (12.1%) deaths from SSBs. A total of 8.5(2.8, 19.2) million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were related to SSB intake (4.5% of diabetes-related DALYs). Conclusions SSBs, are a single, modifiable component of diet, that can impact preventable death/disability in adults in high, middle, and low-income countries, indicating an urgent need for strong global prevention programs. PMID:26124185

Mortality and morbidity due to gastric dilatation-volvulus syndrome in pedigree dogs in the UK.

PubMed

Evans, Katy M; Adams, Vicki J

2010-07-01

To estimate breed-specific risk of death due to, and prevalence of, gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) in UK pedigree dogs. Data were available on the reported cause of and age at death and occurrence of and age at diagnosis of disease from the 2004 purebred dog health survey. A total of 15,881 dogs of 165 breeds had died in the previous 10 years; GDV was the cause of death in 65 breeds. There were 36,006 live dogs of 169 breeds of which 48 breeds had experienced > or =1 episodes of GDV. Prevalence ratios were used to estimate breed-specific GDV mortality and morbidity risks. Gastric dilatation-volvulus was the cause of death for 389 dogs, representing 2.5% (95% CI: 2.2-2.7) of all deaths reported and the median age at death was 7.92 years. There were 253 episodes in 238 live dogs. The median age at first diagnosis was five years. Breeds at greatest risk of GDV mortality were the bloodhound, Grand Bleu de Gascogne, German longhaired pointer and Neapolitan mastiff. Breeds at greatest risk of GDV morbidity were the Grand Bleu de Gascogne, bloodhound, otterhound, Irish setter and Weimaraner. These results suggest that 16 breeds, mainly large/giant, are at increased risk of morbidity/mortality due to GDV.

A flexible model for multivariate interval-censored survival times with complex correlation structure.

PubMed

Falcaro, Milena; Pickles, Andrew

2007-02-10

We focus on the analysis of multivariate survival times with highly structured interdependency and subject to interval censoring. Such data are common in developmental genetics and genetic epidemiology. We propose a flexible mixed probit model that deals naturally with complex but uninformative censoring. The recorded ages of onset are treated as possibly censored ordinal outcomes with the interval censoring mechanism seen as arising from a coarsened measurement of a continuous variable observed as falling between subject-specific thresholds. This bypasses the requirement for the failure times to be observed as falling into non-overlapping intervals. The assumption of a normal age-of-onset distribution of the standard probit model is relaxed by embedding within it a multivariate Box-Cox transformation whose parameters are jointly estimated with the other parameters of the model. Complex decompositions of the underlying multivariate normal covariance matrix of the transformed ages of onset become possible. The new methodology is here applied to a multivariate study of the ages of first use of tobacco and first consumption of alcohol without parental permission in twins. The proposed model allows estimation of the genetic and environmental effects that are shared by both of these risk behaviours as well as those that are specific. 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating regional centile curves from mixed data sources and countries.

PubMed

van Buuren, Stef; Hayes, Daniel J; Stasinopoulos, D Mikis; Rigby, Robert A; ter Kuile, Feiko O; Terlouw, Dianne J

2009-10-15

Regional or national growth distributions can provide vital information on the health status of populations. In most resource poor countries, however, the required anthropometric data from purpose-designed growth surveys are not readily available. We propose a practical method for estimating regional (multi-country) age-conditional weight distributions based on existing survey data from different countries. We developed a two-step method by which one is able to model data with widely different age ranges and sample sizes. The method produces references both at the country level and at the regional (multi-country) level. The first step models country-specific centile curves by Box-Cox t and Box-Cox power exponential distributions implemented in generalized additive model for location, scale and shape through a common model. Individual countries may vary in location and spread. The second step defines the regional reference from a finite mixture of the country distributions, weighted by population size. To demonstrate the method we fitted the weight-for-age distribution of 12 countries in South East Asia and the Western Pacific, based on 273 270 observations. We modeled both the raw body weight and the corresponding Z score, and obtained a good fit between the final models and the original data for both solutions. We briefly discuss an application of the generated regional references to obtain appropriate, region specific, age-based dosing regimens of drugs used in the tropics. The method is an affordable and efficient strategy to estimate regional growth distributions where the standard costly alternatives are not an option. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

School-Located Influenza Vaccination Reduces Community Risk for Influenza and Influenza-Like Illness Emergency Care Visits

PubMed Central

Tran, Cuc H.; Sugimoto, Jonathan D.; Pulliam, Juliet R. C.; Ryan, Kathleen A.; Myers, Paul D.; Castleman, Joan B.; Doty, Randell; Johnson, Jackie; Stringfellow, Jim; Kovacevich, Nadia; Brew, Joe; Cheung, Lai Ling; Caron, Brad; Lipori, Gloria; Harle, Christopher A.; Alexander, Charles; Yang, Yang; Longini, Ira M.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Morris, J. Glenn; Small, Parker A.

2014-01-01

Background School-located influenza vaccination (SLIV) programs can substantially enhance the sub-optimal coverage achieved under existing delivery strategies. Randomized SLIV trials have shown these programs reduce laboratory-confirmed influenza among both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. This work explores the effectiveness of a SLIV program in reducing the community risk of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) associated emergency care visits. Methods For the 2011/12 and 2012/13 influenza seasons, we estimated age-group specific attack rates (AR) for ILI from routine surveillance and census data. Age-group specific SLIV program effectiveness was estimated as one minus the AR ratio for Alachua County versus two comparison regions: the 12 county region surrounding Alachua County, and all non-Alachua counties in Florida. Results Vaccination of ∼50% of 5–17 year-olds in Alachua reduced their risk of ILI-associated visits, compared to the rest of Florida, by 79% (95% confidence interval: 70, 85) in 2011/12 and 71% (63, 77) in 2012/13. The greatest indirect effectiveness was observed among 0–4 year-olds, reducing AR by 89% (84, 93) in 2011/12 and 84% (79, 88) in 2012/13. Among all non-school age residents, the estimated indirect effectiveness was 60% (54, 65) and 36% (31, 41) for 2011/12 and 2012/13. The overall effectiveness among all age-groups was 65% (61, 70) and 46% (42, 50) for 2011/12 and 2012/13. Conclusion Wider implementation of SLIV programs can significantly reduce the influenza-associated public health burden in communities. PMID:25489850

School-located influenza vaccination reduces community risk for influenza and influenza-like illness emergency care visits.

PubMed

Tran, Cuc H; Sugimoto, Jonathan D; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Ryan, Kathleen A; Myers, Paul D; Castleman, Joan B; Doty, Randell; Johnson, Jackie; Stringfellow, Jim; Kovacevich, Nadia; Brew, Joe; Cheung, Lai Ling; Caron, Brad; Lipori, Gloria; Harle, Christopher A; Alexander, Charles; Yang, Yang; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Morris, J Glenn; Small, Parker A

2014-01-01

School-located influenza vaccination (SLIV) programs can substantially enhance the sub-optimal coverage achieved under existing delivery strategies. Randomized SLIV trials have shown these programs reduce laboratory-confirmed influenza among both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. This work explores the effectiveness of a SLIV program in reducing the community risk of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) associated emergency care visits. For the 2011/12 and 2012/13 influenza seasons, we estimated age-group specific attack rates (AR) for ILI from routine surveillance and census data. Age-group specific SLIV program effectiveness was estimated as one minus the AR ratio for Alachua County versus two comparison regions: the 12 county region surrounding Alachua County, and all non-Alachua counties in Florida. Vaccination of ∼50% of 5-17 year-olds in Alachua reduced their risk of ILI-associated visits, compared to the rest of Florida, by 79% (95% confidence interval: 70, 85) in 2011/12 and 71% (63, 77) in 2012/13. The greatest indirect effectiveness was observed among 0-4 year-olds, reducing AR by 89% (84, 93) in 2011/12 and 84% (79, 88) in 2012/13. Among all non-school age residents, the estimated indirect effectiveness was 60% (54, 65) and 36% (31, 41) for 2011/12 and 2012/13. The overall effectiveness among all age-groups was 65% (61, 70) and 46% (42, 50) for 2011/12 and 2012/13. Wider implementation of SLIV programs can significantly reduce the influenza-associated public health burden in communities.

Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours.

PubMed

Di Pietro, Giorgio

2018-02-01

This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dementia incidence trend over 1992-2014 in the Netherlands: Analysis of primary care data.

PubMed

van Bussel, Emma F; Richard, Edo; Arts, Derk L; Nooyens, Astrid C J; Coloma, Preciosa M; de Waal, Margot W M; van den Akker, Marjan; Biermans, Marion C J; Nielen, Markus M J; van Boven, Kees; Smeets, Hugo; Matthews, Fiona E; Brayne, Carol; Busschers, Wim B; van Gool, Willem A; Moll van Charante, Eric P

2017-03-01

Recent reports have suggested declining age-specific incidence rates of dementia in high-income countries over time. Improved education and cardiovascular health in early age have been suggested to be bringing about this effect. The aim of this study was to estimate the age-specific dementia incidence trend in primary care records from a large population in the Netherlands. A dynamic cohort representative of the Dutch population was composed using primary care records from general practice registration networks (GPRNs) across the country. Data regarding dementia incidence were obtained using general-practitioner-recorded diagnosis of dementia within the electronic health records. Age-specific dementia incidence rates were calculated for all persons aged 60 y and over; negative binomial regression analysis was used to estimate the time trend. Nine out of eleven GPRNs provided data on more than 800,000 older people for the years 1992 to 2014, corresponding to over 4 million person-years and 23,186 incident dementia cases. The annual growth in dementia incidence rate was estimated to be 2.1% (95% CI 0.5% to 3.8%), and incidence rates were 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.13) times higher for women compared to men. Despite their relatively low numbers of person-years, the highest age groups contributed most to the increasing trend. There was no significant overall change in incidence rates since the start of a national dementia program in 2003 (-0.025; 95% CI -0.062 to 0.011). Increased awareness of dementia by patients and doctors in more recent years may have influenced dementia diagnosis by general practitioners in electronic health records, and needs to be taken into account when interpreting the data. Within the clinical records of a large, representative sample of the Dutch population, we found no evidence for a declining incidence trend of dementia in the Netherlands. This could indicate true stability in incidence rates, or a balance between increased detection and a true reduction. Irrespective of the exact rates and mechanisms underlying these findings, they illustrate that the burden of work for physicians and nurses in general practice associated with newly diagnosed dementia has not been subject to substantial change in the past two decades. Hence, with the ageing of Western societies, we still need to anticipate a dramatic absolute increase in dementia occurrence over the years to come.

Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations, Singapore, 2004–2008 and 2010–2012

PubMed Central

Lim, Cindy; Lee, Vernon Jian Ming; Ma, Stefan; Tiong, Wei Wei; Ooi, Peng Lim; Lin, Raymond Tzer Pin; James, Lyn; Cutter, Jeffery

2014-01-01

Studies of influenza-associated hospitalizations in tropical settings are lacking. To increase understanding of the effect of influenza in Singapore, we estimated the age-specific influenza-associated hospitalizations for pneumonia and influenza during 2004–2008 and 2010–2012. The rate of hospitalization was 28.3/100,000 person-years during 2004–2008 and 29.6/100,000 person-years during 2010–2012. The age-specific influenza-associated hospitalization rates followed a J-shaped pattern: rates in persons >75 years of age and in children <6 months of age were >47 times and >26 times higher, respectively, than those for persons 25–44 years of age. Across all ages during these 2 study periods, ≈12% of the hospitalizations for pneumonia and influenza were attributable to influenza. The rates and proportions of hospitalizations for influenza, particularly among the very young and the elderly, are considerable in Singapore and highlight the importance of vaccination in protecting populations at risk. PMID:25275710

Age-related differences in factors associated with cervical spine injuries in children.

PubMed

Leonard, Julie C; Jaffe, David M; Olsen, Cody S; Kuppermann, Nathan

2015-04-01

The Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) investigators previously identified risk factors associated with cervical spine injuries (CSIs) in children. Anatomic maturation and age-related variation in mechanisms of injury suggested the need to explore factors separately for younger versus older children. The purpose of this substudy was to investigate CSI risk factors in age subgroups within the PECARN study cohort. This was an age-stratified case-control analysis of children younger than 16 years presenting to 17 PECARN hospitals following blunt trauma between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2004. Data were abstracted for children with CSIs and randomly selected CSI-free children. Age-stratified multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with CSI within three age groups: younger than 2, 2 to 7, and 8 to 15 years. Sensitivity and specificity for CSI were estimated for both the age-specific and original (altered mental status, focal neurologic findings, neck pain, torticollis, substantial torso injury, predisposing conditions, diving, and high-risk motor vehicle crash [MVC]) models. Among 540 children with CSIs, 27 were younger than 2 years, 140 were 2 to 7 years, and 373 were 8 to 15 years. Focal neurologic deficits and high-risk MVC were associated with CSIs in all age-specific models. Other age-specific factors included the following: younger than 2 years, none; 2 to 7 years, altered mental status, neck pain, torticollis; and 8 to 15 years, altered mental status, neck pain, diving. Age-specific models had comparable sensitivity to the original model among the older groups, but had lower sensitivity and higher specificity among the youngest children. While this analysis supports the original PECARN model for CSI, there were subtle age variations in factors associated with CSIs in children that warrant future investigation. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales.

PubMed

Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

2014-09-01

Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R(2) of 0.787 (P = 3.04e-16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent-offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. © 2014 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A novel Gaussian process regression model for state-of-health estimation of lithium-ion battery using charging curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Pan, Rui; Wang, Yujie; Chen, Zonghai

2018-04-01

The state-of-health (SOH) estimation is always a crucial issue for lithium-ion batteries. In order to provide an accurate and reliable SOH estimation, a novel Gaussian process regression (GPR) model based on charging curve is proposed in this paper. Different from other researches where SOH is commonly estimated by cycle life, in this work four specific parameters extracted from charging curves are used as inputs of the GPR model instead of cycle numbers. These parameters can reflect the battery aging phenomenon from different angles. The grey relational analysis method is applied to analyze the relational grade between selected features and SOH. On the other hand, some adjustments are made in the proposed GPR model. Covariance function design and the similarity measurement of input variables are modified so as to improve the SOH estimate accuracy and adapt to the case of multidimensional input. Several aging data from NASA data repository are used for demonstrating the estimation effect by the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method has high SOH estimation accuracy. Besides, a battery with dynamic discharging profile is used to verify the robustness and reliability of this method.

Wringing the last drop of optically stimulated luminescence response for accurate dating of glacial sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medialdea, Alicia; Bateman, Mark D.; Evans, David J.; Roberts, David H.; Chiverrell, Richard C.; Clark, Chris D.

2017-04-01

BRITICE-CHRONO is a NERC-funded consortium project of more than 40 researchers aiming to establish the retreat patterns of the last British and Irish Ice Sheet. For this purpose, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, among other dating techniques, has been used in order to establish accurate chronology. More than 150 samples from glacial environments have been dated and provide key information for modelling of the ice retreat. Nevertheless, luminescence dating of glacial sediments has proven to be challenging: first, glacial sediments were often affected by incomplete bleaching and secondly, quartz grains within the sediments sampled were often characterized by complex luminescence behaviour; characterized by dim signal and low reproducibility. Specific statistical approaches have been used to over come the former to enable the estimated ages to be based on grain populations most likely to have been well bleached. This latest work presents how issues surrounding complex luminescence behaviour were over-come in order to obtain accurate OSL ages. This study has been performed on two samples of bedded sand originated on an ice walled lake plain, in Lincolnshire, UK. Quartz extracts from each sample were artificially bleached and irradiated to known doses. Dose recovery tests have been carried out under different conditions to study the effect of: preheat temperature, thermal quenching, contribution of slow components, hot bleach after a measuring cycles and IR stimulation. Measurements have been performed on different luminescence readers to study the possible contribution of instrument reproducibility. These have shown that a great variability can be observed not only among the studied samples but also within a specific site and even a specific sample. In order to determine an accurate chronology and realistic uncertainties to the estimated ages, this variability must be taken into account. Tight acceptance criteria to measured doses from natural, not exposed, aliquots have been applied. These derived on reproducible dose distributions from which accurate ages could be estimated.

Forecasting the burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures.

PubMed

Omsland, T K; Magnus, J H

2014-10-01

A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the rate of hip fractures is decisive for the future fracture burden. Significant declines in hip fracture rates in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK are required to counteract the impact of the ageing effects. This study aims to evaluate the consequences of the expected growth of the elderly population worldwide on the hip fracture burden using Norway as an example. Furthermore, we wanted to estimate the decline in hip fracture rates required to counteract the anticipated increase in the burden of hip fracture for Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures in Norway were estimated given (1) constant age-specific rates, (2) continued decline, and (3) different cohort scenarios. Based on population projection estimates and population age-specific hip fracture rates in women 65 years and older, we calculated the required declines in hip fracture rates needed to counteract the growing elderly populations in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The level of age-specific hip fracture rates had a huge impact on the future hip fracture burden in Norway. Even if the hip fracture rates decline at the same speed, a 22 % increase in the burden of hip fractures can be expected by 2040. An annual decline in hip fracture rates of 1.1-2.2 % until 2040 is required to counteract the effects of the growing elderly population on the future burden of hip fractures in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. Hip fracture rates have a great impact on the burden of hip fractures. The rates will have to decline significantly to counteract the impact of a growing elderly population. A change in preventive strategies and further studies are warranted to identify the complex causes associated to hip fractures.

Estimating Post-Emergency Fertility Among Disaster-Affected Adolescents: Findings From a Case-Control Study in Aceh Province, Indonesia.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Mari; Suhardan, Suhardan; Danila Danila, Damsyik; Chiang, Chifa; Aoyama, Atsuko

2016-02-01

We aimed to retrospectively estimate adolescent fertility rates before and after a large-scale natural disaster. A case-control study was conducted in Aceh Province, Indonesia, 2 years after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. The age-specific fertility rates of 15-19-year-old-women (ASFR 15-19) was estimated each year from 2004 to 2006 by creating hypothetical age cohorts. The results were compared with data from the closest edition of the Indonesian Demographic Health Survey (IDHS). The pre-disaster ASFR 15-19 (4.4% in 2004) was not significantly different from the 2002-2003 IDHS data (P=0.49), whereas the post-disaster ASFR 15-19 (1.1% in 2005-2006) was significantly lower than the provincial estimation in the 2007 IDHS (P<0.01). ASFR 15-19 was reduced by 76% in the post-disaster period compared with the pre-disaster period (rate ratio: 0.24, P=0.02). The creation of hypothetical age cohorts enabled valid and useful estimation of the ASFR in disaster-affected areas where reliable vital statistics are not available. For pre-disaster fertility estimation, however, we suggest excluding data from the 40-week period preceding the disaster, because the data may be biased by excess mortality in childbearing mothers and newborn babies in the disaster.

New, national bottom-up estimate for tree-based biological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient in many ecosystems, but is also a chief pollutant from human activity. Quantifying human impacts on the nitrogen cycle and investigating natural ecosystem nitrogen cycling both require an understanding of the magnitude of nitrogen inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). A bottom-up approach to estimating BNF—scaling rates up from measurements to broader scales—is attractive because it is rooted in actual BNF measurements. However, bottom-up approaches have been hindered by scaling difficulties, and a recent top-down approach suggested that the previous bottom-up estimate was much too large. Here, we used a bottom-up approach for tree-based BNF, overcoming scaling difficulties with the systematic, immense (>70,000 N-fixing trees) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. We employed two approaches to estimate species-specific BNF rates: published ecosystem-scale rates (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and published estimates of the percent of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) combined with FIA-derived growth rates. Species-specific rates can vary for a variety of reasons, so for each approach we examined how different assumptions influenced our results. Specifically, we allowed BNF rates to vary with stand age, N-fixer density, and canopy position (since N-fixation is known to require substantial light).Our estimates from this bottom-up technique are several orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates indicating

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Epigenetic Age Acceleration Assessed with Human White-Matter Images.

PubMed

Hodgson, Karen; Carless, Melanie A; Kulkarni, Hemant; Curran, Joanne E; Sprooten, Emma; Knowles, Emma E; Mathias, Samuel; Göring, Harald H H; Yao, Nailin; Olvera, Rene L; Fox, Peter T; Almasy, Laura; Duggirala, Ravi; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C

2017-05-03

The accurate estimation of age using methylation data has proved a useful and heritable biomarker, with acceleration in epigenetic age predicting a number of age-related phenotypes. Measures of white matter integrity in the brain are also heritable and highly sensitive to both normal and pathological aging processes across adulthood. We consider the phenotypic and genetic interrelationships between epigenetic age acceleration and white matter integrity in humans. Our goal was to investigate processes that underlie interindividual variability in age-related changes in the brain. Using blood taken from a Mexican-American extended pedigree sample ( n = 628; age = 23.28-93.11 years), epigenetic age was estimated using the method developed by Horvath (2013). For n = 376 individuals, diffusion tensor imaging scans were also available. The interrelationship between epigenetic age acceleration and global white matter integrity was investigated with variance decomposition methods. To test for neuroanatomical specificity, 16 specific tracts were additionally considered. We observed negative phenotypic correlations between epigenetic age acceleration and global white matter tract integrity (ρ pheno = -0.119, p = 0.028), with evidence of shared genetic (ρ gene = -0.463, p = 0.013) but not environmental influences. Negative phenotypic and genetic correlations with age acceleration were also seen for a number of specific white matter tracts, along with additional negative phenotypic correlations between granulocyte abundance and white matter integrity. These findings (i.e., increased acceleration in epigenetic age in peripheral blood correlates with reduced white matter integrity in the brain and shares common genetic influences) provide a window into the neurobiology of aging processes within the brain and a potential biomarker of normal and pathological brain aging. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Epigenetic measures can be used to predict age with a high degree of accuracy and so capture acceleration in biological age, relative to chronological age. The white matter tracts within the brain are also highly sensitive to aging processes. We show that increased biological aging (measured using epigenetic data from blood samples) is correlated with reduced integrity of white matter tracts within the human brain (measured using diffusion tensor imaging) with data from a large sample of Mexican-American families. Given the family design of the sample, we are also able to demonstrate that epigenetic aging and white matter tract integrity also share common genetic influences. Therefore, epigenetic age may be a potential, and accessible, biomarker of brain aging. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/374735-09$15.00/0.

Female breast cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2013

PubMed Central

Zuo, Ting‐Ting; Zheng, Rong‐Shou; Zeng, Hong‐Mei; Zhang, Si‐Wei

2017-01-01

Background Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. Population‐based cancer registration data from the National Central Cancer Registry were used to analyze and evaluate the incidence and mortality rates in China in 2013, providing scientific information for cancer prevention and control. Methods Pooled data were stratified by area (urban/rural), gender, and age group. National new cases and deaths were estimated using age‐specific rates and the corresponding population in 2013. The Chinese population in 2000 and Segi's world population were used to calculate age‐standardized rates. Results The estimated number of new breast cancer cases was about 278 800 in China in 2013. The crude incidence, age‐standardized rate of incidence by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of incidence by world standard population were 42.02/100 000, 30.41/100 000, and 28.42/100 000, respectively. The estimated number of breast cancer deaths was about 64 600 in China in 2013. The crude mortality, age‐standardized rate of mortality by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of mortality by world standard population were 9.74/100 000, 6.54/100 000, and 6.34/100 000, respectively. Both incidence and mortality were higher in urban than in rural areas. Age‐specific breast cancer incidence significantly increased with age, particularly after age 20, and peaked at 50–55 years, while age‐specific mortality increased rapidly after 25 years, peaking at 85+ years. Conclusions Breast cancer is the most common cancer in Chinese women, especially women in urban areas. Comprehensive measures are needed to reduce the heavy burden of breast cancer. PMID:28296260

Estimation of true height: a study in population-specific methods among young South African adults.

PubMed

Lahner, Christen Renée; Kassier, Susanna Maria; Veldman, Frederick Johannes

2017-02-01

To investigate the accuracy of arm-associated height estimation methods in the calculation of true height compared with stretch stature in a sample of young South African adults. A cross-sectional descriptive design was employed. Pietermaritzburg, Westville and Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2015. Convenience sample (N 900) aged 18-24 years, which included an equal number of participants from both genders (150 per gender) stratified across race (Caucasian, Black African and Indian). Continuous variables that were investigated included: (i) stretch stature; (ii) total armspan; (iii) half-armspan; (iv) half-armspan ×2; (v) demi-span; (vi) demi-span gender-specific equation; (vii) WHO equation; and (viii) WHO-adjusted equations; as well as categorization according to gender and race. Statistical analysis was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21.0. Significant correlations were identified between gender and height estimation measurements, with males being anatomically larger than females (P<0·001). Significant differences were documented when study participants were stratified according to race and gender (P<0·001). Anatomical similarities were noted between Indians and Black Africans, whereas Caucasians were anatomically different from the other race groups. Arm-associated height estimation methods were able to estimate true height; however, each method was specific to each gender and race group. Height can be calculated by using arm-associated measurements. Although universal equations for estimating true height exist, for the enhancement of accuracy, the use of equations that are race-, gender- and population-specific should be considered.

Estimating cause of adult (15+ years) death using InterVA-4 in a rural district of southern Ghana.

PubMed

Awini, Elizabeth; Sarpong, Doris; Adjei, Alexander; Manyeh, Alfred Kwesi; Amu, Alberta; Akweongo, Patricia; Adongo, Philip; Kukula, Vida; Odonkor, Gabriel; Narh, Solomon; Gyapong, Margaret

2014-01-01

Data needed to estimate causes of death and the pattern of these deaths are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. Such data are very important for targeting, monitoring, and evaluating health interventions. To estimate the mortality rate and determine causes of death among adults (aged 15 years and older) in a rural district of southern Ghana, using the InterVA-4 model. Data used were generated from verbal autopsies conducted for registered adult members of the Dodowa Health and Demographic Surveillance System who died between 2006 and 2010. The InterVA-4 model was used to assign the cause of death. Overall, the mortality rate for the period under review was 7.5/1,000 person-years (py) for the general population and 10.4/1,000 py for those aged 15 and older. The leading cause of death was communicable diseases (CDs), with a malaria-specific mortality rate of 1.06/1,000 py. Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB)-specific mortality rate was the next highest (1.01/1,000 py). HIV/AIDS attributed deaths were lower among males than females. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed to 28.3% of the deaths with cause-specific mortality rate of 2.93/1,000 py. Stroke topped the list with cause-specific mortality rate of 0.69/1,000 py. As expected, young males (15-49 years) contributed to more road traffic accident (RTA) deaths; they had a lower RTA cause-specific mortality rate than older males (50-64 years). Data indicate that CDs (e.g. malaria and TB) remain the major cause of death with NCDs (e.g. stroke) following closely behind. Verbal autopsy data can provide the causes of mortality in poorly resourced settings where access to timely and accurate data is scarce.

Assault by battery: battery-related injury in the head and neck.

PubMed

Svider, Peter F; Johnson, Andrew P; Folbe, Adam J; Carron, Michael A; Eloy, Jean Anderson; Zuliani, Giancarlo

2014-10-01

To estimate nationwide incidence of emergency department (ED) visits for battery-related injury (BRI) occurring in the head and neck, and analyze demographic and anatomic-specific trends. The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) was searched for BRI in the head and neck, with analysis for incidence, anatomic site, age and gender, and specific diagnoses. There were an estimated 18,803 head and neck BRI ED visits from 2003 to 2012. A total of 65.8% of patients were male. A total of 92.8% of patients were treated/examined and then released, and 4.7% of patients were admitted. A plurality (34.2%) of patients had BRI related to nose injures, and this represented the youngest cohort (median: 3 years old). The vast majority of ear and nose diagnoses were "foreign bodies"; two-thirds of mouth injuries were related to burns, whereas lacerations predominated in the face and head. Nearly half of ED visits involved patients between 2 and 5 years of age. A total of 45.2% of cases involving patients ≥ 65 years of age were related to hearing aid batteries as foreign bodies. BRI in the head and neck results in a significant amount of ED visits. Mechanisms of injury vary by age and anatomic location, but a considerable male predilection exists. Whereas pediatric patients are primarily affected, particularly patients between 2 to 5 years of age, injuries do occur among adults. Importantly, the prevalence of dislodged hearing-aid batteries in the elderly necessitates comprehensive patient education to increase awareness and counseling regarding this complication. Awareness of demographic and anatomic-specific trends reported in this analysis may be an invaluable adjunct for history-taking and clinical examination. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Ovary cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2011.

PubMed

Wei, Kuangrong; Li, Yuanming; Zheng, Rongshou; Zhang, Siwei; Liang, Zhiheng; Cen, Huishan; Chen, Wanqing

2015-02-01

To evaluate and analyze ovary cancer incidence and mortality in China in 2011 using ovary cancer data from population-based cancer registration in China, and to provide scientific information for its control and prevention. Invasive cases of ovary cancer were extracted and analyzed from the overall Chinese cancer database in 2011, which were based on data from 177 population-based cancer registries distributing in 28 provinces. The crude, standardized, and truncated incidences and mortalities et al. were calculated and new and deaths cases from ovary cancer throughout China and in different regions in 2011 were estimated using Chinese practical population. The estimates of new ovary cancer cases and deaths were 45,223 and 18,430, respectively, in China in 2011. The crude incidence rate, age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population (ASR-C) and age-standardized rate by world standard population (ASR-W) incidence were 6.89/100,000, 5.35/100,000 and 5.08/100,000, respectively; the crude, ASR-C and ASR-W mortalities were 2.81/100,000, 2.01/100,000 and 1.99/100,000, respectively. The incidence and mortality in urban areas were higher than those in rural areas. The age-specific incidence and mortality increased rapidly from age 35-39 and peaked at age 60-64 or 75-79 years. After age 45 or 55, the age-specific incidence and death rates in urban were much higher than those in rural areas. Compared with GLOBOCAN 2012 data, the ovary cancer incidence in China in 2011 was at middle level, but its mortality was at low level worldwide.

A radiographic study of the mandibular third molar root development in different ethnic groups.

PubMed

Liversidge, H M; Peariasamy, K; Folayan, M O; Adeniyi, A O; Ngom, P I; Mikami, Y; Shimada, Y; Kuroe, K; Tvete, I F; Kvaal, S I

2017-12-01

The nature of differences in the timing of tooth formation between ethnic groups is important when estimating age. To calculate age of transition of the mandibular third (M3) molar tooth stages from archived dental radiographs from sub-Saharan Africa, Malaysia, Japan and two groups from London UK (Whites and Bangladeshi). The number of radiographs was 4555 (2028 males, 2527 females) with an age range 10-25 years. The left M3 was staged into Moorrees stages. A probit model was fitted to calculate mean ages for transitions between stages for males and females and each ethnic group separately. The estimated age distributions given each M3 stage was calculated. To assess differences in timing of M3 between ethnic groups, three models were proposed: a separate model for each ethnic group, a joint model and a third model combining some aspects across groups. The best model fit was tested using Bayesian and Akaikes information criteria (BIC and AIC) and log likelihood ratio test. Differences in mean ages of M3 root stages were found between ethnic groups, however all groups showed large standard deviation values. The AIC and log likelihood ratio test indicated that a separate model for each ethnic group was best. Small differences were also noted between timing of M3 between males and females, with the exception of the Malaysian group. These findings suggests that features of a reference data set (wide age range and uniform age distribution) and a Bayesian statistical approach are more important than population specific convenience samples to estimate age of an individual using M3. Some group differences were evident in M3 timing, however, this has some impact on the confidence interval of estimated age in females and little impact in males because of the large variation in age.

Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

Evaluating Vaccination Strategies for Zika Virus in the Americas.

PubMed

Durham, David P; Fitzpatrick, Meagan C; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Parpia, Alyssa S; Michael, Nelson L; Galvani, Alison P

2018-05-01

Mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted Zika virus has become widespread across Central and South America and the Caribbean. Many Zika vaccine candidates are under active development. To quantify the effect of Zika vaccine prioritization of females aged 9 to 49 years, followed by males aged 9 to 49 years, on incidence of prenatal Zika infections. A compartmental model of Zika transmission between mosquitoes and humans was developed and calibrated to empirical estimates of country-specific mosquito density. Mosquitoes were stratified into susceptible, exposed, and infected groups; humans were stratified into susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and vaccinated groups. Age-specific fertility rates, Zika sexual transmission, and country-specific demographics were incorporated. 34 countries and territories in the Americas with documented Zika outbreaks. Males and females aged 9 to 49 years. Age- and sex-targeted immunization using a Zika vaccine with 75% efficacy. Annual prenatal Zika infections. For a base-case vaccine efficacy of 75% and vaccination coverage of 90%, immunizing females aged 9 to 49 years (the World Health Organization target population) would reduce the incidence of prenatal infections by at least 94%, depending on the country-specific Zika attack rate. In regions where an outbreak is not expected for at least 10 years, vaccination of women aged 15 to 29 years is more efficient than that of women aged 30 years or older. Population-level modeling may not capture all local and neighborhood-level heterogeneity in mosquito abundance or Zika incidence. A Zika vaccine of moderate to high efficacy may virtually eliminate prenatal infections through a combination of direct protection and transmission reduction. Efficiency of age-specific targeting of Zika vaccination depends on the timing of future outbreaks. National Institutes of Health.

Estimating prevalence of osteoporosis: examples from industrialized countries.

PubMed

Wade, S W; Strader, C; Fitzpatrick, L A; Anthony, M S; O'Malley, C D

2014-01-01

In nine industrialized countries in North America, Europe, Japan, and Australia, country-specific osteoporosis prevalence (estimated from published data) at the total hip or hip/spine ranged from 9 to 38 % for women and 1 to 8 % for men. In these countries, osteoporosis affects up to 49 million individuals. Standardized country-specific prevalence estimates are scarce, limiting our ability to anticipate the potential global impact of osteoporosis. This study estimated the prevalence of osteoporosis in several industrialized countries (USA, Canada, five European countries, Australia, and Japan) using the World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD)-based definition of osteoporosis: BMD T-score assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry ≤-2.5. Osteoporosis prevalence was estimated for males and females aged 50 years and above using total hip BMD and then either total hip or spine BMD. We compiled published location-specific data, using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III age and BMD reference groups, and adjusted for differences in disease definitions across sources. Relevant NHANES III ratios (e.g., male to female osteoporosis at the total hip) were applied where data were missing for countries outside the USA. Data were extrapolated from geographically similar countries as needed. Population counts for 2010 were used to estimate the number of individuals with osteoporosis in each country. For females, osteoporosis prevalence ranged from 9 % (UK) to 15 % (France and Germany) based on total hip BMD and from 16 % (USA) to 38 % (Japan) when spine BMD data were included. For males, prevalence ranged from 1 % (UK) to 4 % (Japan) based on total hip BMD and from 3 % (Canada) to 8 % (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) when spine BMD data were included. Up to 49 million individuals met the WHO osteoporosis criteria in a number of industrialized countries in North America, Europe, Japan, and Australia.

Evaluation of third molar development and its relation to chronological age: a panoramic radiographic study.

PubMed

Zandi, Mohammad; Shokri, Abbas; Malekzadeh, Hamid; Amini, Payam; Shafiey, Parastu

2015-06-01

Third molar development, in comparison to other teeth in the dentition, has the greatest variation in morphology, anatomical position, and time of development and eruption, and its reliability for chronological age estimation is controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate third molar development and its relation to chronological age using panoramic radiography. A total of 2536 digital panoramic radiographs of individuals aged between 5 and 26 years were selected. The developmental status of the third molars was assessed using eight-stage developmental scoring proposed by Demirjian et al., with one modification: a stage 0 was added. The collected data were entered into a checklist and subjected to statistical analyses. The mean ages of the first appearance of third molar bud, complete crown formation, and root apex closure were around 9, 14, and 22 years, respectively. In both jaws, third molar development occurred symmetrically, and sexual dimorphism was observed at some developmental stages. Finally, two formulas were presented to estimate age of the juveniles and adolescents based on their gender and developmental stages of the third molars, and validated on a second sample consisting of 523 individuals aged between 8 and 22. Assessment of third molar development was found to be a reliable method for age estimation of individuals between 11 and 22 years. Because of possible ethnic and geographic differences in third molar development, population specific researches were recommended.

Examining geographic patterns of mortality: the atlas of mortality in small areas in Spain (1987-1995).

PubMed

Benach, Joan; Yasui, Yutaka; Borrell, Carme; Rosa, Elisabeth; Pasarín, M Isabel; Benach, Núria; Español, Esther; Martínez, José Miguel; Daponte, Antonio

2003-06-01

Small-area mortality atlases have been demonstrated to be a useful tool for both showing general geographical patterns in mortality data and identifying specific high-risk locations. In Spain no study has so far systematically examined geographic patterns of small-area mortality for the main causes of death. This paper presents the main features, contents and potential uses of the Spanish Atlas of Mortality in small areas (1987-1995). Population data for 2,218 small areas were drawn from the 1991 Census. Aggregated mortality data for 14 specific causes of death for the period 1987-1995 were obtained for each small area. Empirical Bayes-model-based estimates of age-adjusted relative risk were displayed in small-area maps for each cause/gender/age group (0-64 or 65 and over) combination using the same range of values (i.e. septiles) and colour schemes. The 'Spanish Atlas of Mortality' includes multiple choropleth (area-shaded) small-area maps and graphs to answer different questions about the data. The atlas is divided into three main sections. Section 1 includes the methods and comments on the main maps. Section 2 presents a two-page layout for each leading cause of death by gender including 1) a large map with relative risk estimates, 2) a map that indicates high- and low-risk small areas, 3) a graph with median and interquartile range of relative risk estimates for 17 large regions of Spain, and 4) relative-risk maps for two age groups. Section 3 provides specific information on the geographical units of analysis, statistical methods and other supplemental maps. The 'Spanish Atlas of Mortality' is a useful tool for examining geographical patterns of mortality risk and identifying specific high-risk areas. Mortality patterns displayed in the atlas may have important implications for research and social/health policy planning purposes.

Effects of a kindergarten-based, family-involved intervention on motor performance ability in 3- to 6-year-old children: the ToyBox-study.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Julia; Geyer, Christine; Kirchberg, Franca; Manios, Yannis; Koletzko, Berthold

2017-02-01

This study targeted to examine the effect of the ToyBox-intervention, a kindergarten-based, family-involved intervention, aiming to improve preschooler's energy-related behaviours (e.g., physical activity) on motor performance ability. Physical activity sessions, classroom activities, environmental changes and tools for parents were the components of the 1-year intervention. The intervention and control were cluster-randomised, and children's anthropometry and two motor test items (jumping from side to side, JSS and standing long jump, SLJ) were assessed. A total of 1293 (4.6 ± 0.69 years; 52% boys) from 45 kindergartens in Germany were included (intervention, n = 863; control, n = 430). The effect was assessed using generalised estimating equation. The intervention group showed a better improvement in JSS (Estimate 2.19 jumps, P = 0.01) and tended to improve better in SLJ (Estimate 2.73 cm, P = 0.08). The intervention was more effective in boys with respect to SLJ (P of interaction effect = 0.01). Children aged <4.5 years did not show a significant benefit while older children improved (JSS, Estimate 3.38 jumps, P = 0.004; SLJ, Estimate 4.18 cm, P = 0.04). Children with low socio-economic status improved in JSS (Estimate 5.98 jumps, P = 0.0001). The ToyBox-intervention offers an effective strategy to improve specific components of motor performance ability in early childhood. Future programmes should consider additional strategies specifically targeting girls and younger aged children. BMI: body mass index; SES: socio-economic status; JSS: jumping from side to side; SLJ: standing long jump; SD: standard deviation; GEE: generalised estimating equation.

Hyperostosis frontalis interna: criteria for sexing and aging a skeleton.

PubMed

May, Hila; Peled, Nathan; Dar, Gali; Cohen, Haim; Abbas, Janan; Medlej, Bahaa; Hershkovitz, Israel

2011-09-01

Estimation of sex and age in skeletons is essential in anthropological and forensic medicine investigations. The aim of the current study was to examine the potential of hyperostosis frontalis interna (HFI) as a criterion for determining sex and age in forensic cases. Macroscopic examination of the inner aspect of the frontal bone of 768 skulls (326 males and 442 females) aged 1 to 103, which had undergone a head computerized tomography scan, was carried out using the volume rendering technique. HFI was divided into two categories: minor and major. HFI is a sex- and age-dependent phenomena, with females manifesting significantly higher prevalence than males (p<0.01). In both females and males, prevalence of HFI increases as age increases (p<0.01). We present herein the probabilities of designating an unknown skull to a specific sex and age cohort according to the presence of HFI (standardized to age distribution in an Israeli population). Moreover, we present the probability of an individual belonging to a specific sex or age cohort according to age or sex (respectively) and severity of HFI. We suggest a valid, reliable, and easy method for sex and age identification of unknown skulls.

Do U.S. states' socioeconomic and policy contexts shape adult disability?

PubMed

Montez, Jennifer Karas; Hayward, Mark D; Wolf, Douglas A

2017-04-01

Growing disparities in adult mortality across U.S. states point to the importance of assessing disparities in other domains of health. Here, we estimate state-level differences in disability, and draw on the WHO socio-ecological framework to assess the role of ecological factors in explaining these differences. Our study is based on data from 5.5 million adults aged 25-94 years in the 2010-2014 waves of the American Community Survey. Disability is defined as difficulty with mobility, independent living, self-care, vision, hearing, or cognition. We first provide estimates of age-standardized and age-specific disability prevalence by state. We then estimate multilevel models to assess how states' socioeconomic and policy contexts shape the probability of having a disability. Age-standardized disability prevalence differs markedly by state, from 12.9% in North Dakota and Minnesota to 23.5% in West Virginia. Disability was lower in states with stronger economic output, more income equality, longer histories of tax credits for low-income workers, and higher cigarette taxes (for middle-age women), net of individuals' socio-demographic characteristics. States' socioeconomic and policy contexts appear particularly important for older adults. Findings underscore the importance of socio-ecological influences on disability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of umbilical and epigastric hernia repair: a nationwide epidemiologic study.

PubMed

Burcharth, J; Pedersen, M S; Pommergaard, H-C; Bisgaard, T; Pedersen, C B; Rosenberg, J

2015-10-01

Umbilical and epigastric hernia repair are common surgical procedures; however, the nationwide gender and age-specific prevalence of these repairs is unknown, and this knowledge could form the basis for new studies. A nationwide register-based study covering all people living in Denmark on December 31st, 2010 was performed. Within this population all umbilical and epigastric hernia repairs from January 1st, 2006 to December 31st, 2010 were identified using data from the Danish National Hospital Register, and 5-year prevalence estimates were calculated. The study population covered 5,639,885 persons (49 % males). A total of 10,107 patients (68 % males) were operated for an umbilical hernia and 2412 patients (55 % males) were operated for an epigastric hernia. The age-specific 5-year prevalence differed for both hernia types. The highest 5-year prevalence of umbilical hernia repairs was seen in males aged 60-70 years with a 5-year prevalence of 0.53 % (95 % CI 0.51-0.56 %) and the highest age-specific 5-year prevalence of epigastric hernia repair was seen in 40-50 year females with a 5-year prevalence of 0.086 % (95 % CI 0.077-0.095 %). The gender and age-specific 5-year prevalence of umbilical and epigastric hernia repair differed in a nationwide population.

Alterations of functional connectivities from early to middle adulthood: Clues from multivariate pattern analysis of resting-state fMRI data.

PubMed

Tian, Lixia; Ma, Lin; Wang, Linlin

2016-04-01

In contrast to extended research interests in the maturation and aging of human brain, alterations of brain structure and function from early to middle adulthood have been much less studied. The aim of the present study was to investigate the extent and pattern of the alterations of functional interactions between brain regions from early to middle adulthood. We carried out the study by multivariate pattern analysis of resting-state fMRI (RS-fMRI) data of 63 adults aged 18 to 45 years. Specifically, using elastic net, we performed brain age estimation and age-group classification (young adults aged 18-28 years vs. middle-aged adults aged 35-45 years) based on the resting-state functional connectivities (RSFCs) between 160 regions of interest (ROIs) evaluated on the RS-fMRI data of each subject. The results indicate that the estimated brain ages were significantly correlated with the chronological age (R=0.78, MAE=4.81), and a classification rate of 94.44% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.99 were obtained when classifying the young and middle-aged adults. These results provide strong evidence that functional interactions between brain regions undergo notable alterations from early to middle adulthood. By analyzing the RSFCs that contribute to brain age estimation/age-group classification, we found that a majority of the RSFCs were inter-network, and we speculate that inter-network RSFCs might mature late but age early as compared to intra-network ones. In addition, the strengthening/weakening of the RSFCs associated with the left/right hemispheric ROIs, the weakening of cortico-cerebellar RSFCs and the strengthening of the RSFCs between the default mode network and other networks contributed much to both brain age estimation and age-group classification. All these alterations might reflect that aging of brain function is already in progress in middle adulthood. Overall, the present study indicated that the RSFCs undergo notable alterations from early to middle adulthood and highlighted the necessity of careful considerations of possible influences of these alterations in related studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of food photographs for use with children aged 18 months to 16 years: Comparison against weighed food diaries - The Young Person's Food Atlas (UK).

PubMed

Foster, Emma; Hawkins, Adrian; Barton, Karen L; Stamp, Elaine; Matthews, John N S; Adamson, Ashley J

2017-01-01

Traditional dietary assessment methods, used in the UK, such as weighed food diaries impose a large participant burden, often resulting in difficulty recruiting representative samples and underreporting of energy intakes. One approach to reducing the burden placed on the participant is to use portion size assessment tools to obtain an estimate of the amount of food consumed, removing the need to weigh all foods. An age range specific food atlas was developed for use in assessing children's dietary intakes. The foods selected and portion sizes depicted were derived from intakes recorded during the UK National Diet and Nutrition Surveys of children aged 1.5 to 16 years. Estimates of food portion sizes using the food atlas were compared against 4-day weighed intakes along with in-school / nursery observations, by the research team. Interviews were conducted with parents the day after completion of the diary, and for children aged 4 to 16 years, also with the child. Mean estimates of portion size consumed were within 7% of the weight of food recorded in the weighed food diary. The limits of agreement were wide indicating high variability of estimates at the individual level but the precision increased with increasing age. For children 11 years and over, agreement with weighed food diaries, was as good as that of their parents in terms of total weight of food consumed and of intake of energy and key nutrients. The age appropriate food photographs offer an alternative to weighed intakes for dietary assessment with children.

12 CFR 226.47 - Content of disclosures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... for bankruptcy, the consumer may still be required to pay back the loan. (4) Cost estimates. An... payment option. (5) Eligibility. Any age or school enrollment eligibility requirements relating to the... a covered educational institution may have school-specific education loan benefits and terms not...

12 CFR 226.47 - Content of disclosures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... for bankruptcy, the consumer may still be required to pay back the loan. (4) Cost estimates. An... payment option. (5) Eligibility. Any age or school enrollment eligibility requirements relating to the... a covered educational institution may have school-specific education loan benefits and terms not...

12 CFR 226.47 - Content of disclosures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... for bankruptcy, the consumer may still be required to pay back the loan. (4) Cost estimates. An... payment option. (5) Eligibility. Any age or school enrollment eligibility requirements relating to the... a covered educational institution may have school-specific education loan benefits and terms not...

12 CFR 226.47 - Content of disclosures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... for bankruptcy, the consumer may still be required to pay back the loan. (4) Cost estimates. An... payment option. (5) Eligibility. Any age or school enrollment eligibility requirements relating to the... a covered educational institution may have school-specific education loan benefits and terms not...

MODELING INHALATION AND MULTIMEDIA MULTIPATHWAY HUMAN EXPOSURES TO ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of exposures of children and adults to air toxics or multimedia pollutants require careful consideration of sources and concentrations of pollutants that may be present in different media, as well as various routes and pathways of exposures associated with age-specif...

Best Fitting Prediction Equations for Basal Metabolic Rate: Informing Obesity Interventions in Diverse Populations

PubMed Central

Sabounchi, Nasim S.; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Ammerman, Alice

2014-01-01

Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) represents the largest component of total energy expenditure and is a major contributor to energy balance. Therefore, accurately estimating BMR is critical for developing rigorous obesity prevention and control strategies. Over the past several decades, numerous BMR formulas have been developed targeted to different population groups. A comprehensive literature search revealed 248 BMR estimation equations developed using diverse ranges of age, gender, race, fat free mass, fat mass, height, waist-to-hip ratio, body mass index, and weight. A subset of 47 studies included enough detail to allow for development of meta-regression equations. Utilizing these studies, meta-equations were developed targeted to twenty specific population groups. This review provides a comprehensive summary of available BMR equations and an estimate of their accuracy. An accompanying online BMR prediction tool (available at http://www.sdl.ise.vt.edu/tutorials.html) was developed to automatically estimate BMR based on the most appropriate equation after user-entry of individual age, race, gender, and weight. PMID:23318720

[Differences in mortality between indigenous and non-indigenous persons in Brazil based on the 2010 Population Census].

PubMed

Campos, Marden Barbosa de; Borges, Gabriel Mendes; Queiroz, Bernardo Lanza; Santos, Ricardo Ventura

2017-06-12

There have been no previous estimates on differences in adult or overall mortality in indigenous peoples in Brazil, although such indicators are extremely important for reducing social iniquities in health in this population segment. Brazil has made significant strides in recent decades to fill the gaps in data on indigenous peoples in the national statistics. The aim of this paper is to present estimated mortality rates for indigenous and non-indigenous persons in different age groups, based on data from the 2010 Population Census. The estimates used the question on deaths from specific household surveys. The results indicate important differences in mortality rates between indigenous and non-indigenous persons in all the selected age groups and in both sexes. These differences are more pronounced in childhood, especially in girls. The indicators corroborate the fact that indigenous peoples in Brazil are in a situation of extreme vulnerability in terms of their health, based on these unprecedented estimates of the size of these differences.

Cohort fertility in Western Europe: comparing fertility trends in recent birth cohorts.

PubMed

Hopflinger, F

1984-01-01

A comparative study of fertility levels among cohorts of women born in 1940, 1945, 1950, 1955, and 1960 in 16 European countries was undertaken using vital statistics data. The average number of live birth/woman for each of the 5 cohorts by age 20, 25, 30, and 35 was computed by cumulating age-specific fertility rates of women born in specific years. Median age at childbirth and completed fertility were estimated for the 3 oldest cohorts (1940, 1945, and 1950). 2 estimations of completed fertility were made. 1 was based on the assumption of a constant age-specific fertility rate, and the other was based on a relational Gompertz model. Where possible cohort fertility was disaggregated by birth order. Since the data for the countries was not fully comparable, it was not possible to use sophisticated analytical techniques. Other limits of the study were that fertility, especially for the more recent cohorts was incomplete, parity specific data was not available for all the countries, and open cohorts rather than closed cohorts were used. The analysis indicated that completed cohort fertility was lower for the 1950 cohort than for the 1940 cohort in all 16 countries. For the 1940 cohort, only Germany's estimated completed fertility was less than 2.00. For the other 15 countries, estimated completed fertility ranged from 2.04 (Finland) to 3.36 (Ireland). For the 1950 cohort, estimated completed fertility was less than 2.00 in 8 of the countries. Estimated completed fertility was lowest in Finland and Switzerland (1.82) and highest in Ireland (3.33). No marked increase in childlessness was observed, and for the 1940 and 1950 cohorts, childlessness did not exceed 20% in any of the countries and was considerably less than 20% in most of the countries. There was a trend toward delayed childbearing in most of the countries. An examination of available parity data for the 1940 and 1950 cohorts lead to the conclusion that the major factor contributing toward the decline in fertility was a decline in 3rd and higher order births. Most countries showed a decline in higher order births, and in some countries the decline was marked. The proportion of 1-child families increased in many countries and was especially high in Germany. The fertility decline may be leveling off in some of the countries. Fertility will probably stablize at a low level in most of the countries. The decline in fertility is due not only to increased contraceptive use but to the growing trend toward secular individualism in European society. The similarities in the fertility declines in all the countries indicates that identical cross national causes are influencing fertility behavior. The 16 countries included iln the study were Austria, Belgium, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

A home calendar and recall method of last menstrual period for estimating gestational age in rural Bangladesh: a validation study.

PubMed

Gernand, Alison D; Paul, Rina Rani; Ullah, Barkat; Taher, Muhammad A; Witter, Frank R; Wu, Lee; Labrique, Alain B; West, Keith P; Christian, Parul

2016-10-21

The best method of gestational age assessment is by ultrasound in the first trimester; however, this method is impractical in large field trials in rural areas. Our objective was to assess the validity of gestational age estimated from prospectively collected date of last menstrual period (LMP) using crown-rump length (CRL) measured in early pregnancy by ultrasound. As part of a large, cluster-randomized, controlled trial in rural Bangladesh, we collected dates of LMP by recall and as marked on a calendar every 5 weeks in women likely to become pregnant. Among those with a urine-test confirmed pregnancy, a subset with gestational age of <15 weeks (n = 353) were enrolled for ultrasound follow-up to measure CRL. We compared interview-assessed LMP with CRL gestational age estimates and classification of preterm, term, and post-term births. LMP-based gestational age was higher than CRL by a mean (SD) of 2.8 (10.7) days; differences varied by maternal education and preterm birth (P < 0.05). Lin's concordance correlation coefficient was good at ultrasound [0.63 (95 % CI 0.56, 0.69)] and at birth [0.77 (95 % CI 0.73, 0.81)]. Validity of classifying preterm birth was high but post-term was lower, with specificity of 96 and 89 % and sensitivity of 86 and 67 %, respectively. Results were similar by parity. Prospectively collected LMP provided a valid estimate of gestational age and preterm birth in a rural, low-income setting and may be a suitable alternative to ultrasound in programmatic settings and large field trials. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00860470.

The Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to Major Modifiable Risk Factors in Indonesia.

PubMed

Hussain, Mohammad Akhtar; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Peters, Sanne Ae; Woodward, Mark; Huxley, Rachel R

2016-10-05

In Indonesia, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke are estimated to cause more than 470 000 deaths annually. In order to inform primary prevention policies, we estimated the sex- and age-specific burden of CHD and stroke attributable to five major and modifiable vascular risk factors: cigarette smoking, hypertension, diabetes, elevated total cholesterol, and excess body weight. Population attributable risks for CHD and stroke attributable to these risk factors individually were calculated using summary statistics obtained for prevalence of each risk factor specific to sex and to two age categories (<55 and ≥55 years) from a national survey in Indonesia. Age- and sex-specific relative risks for CHD and stroke associated with each of the five risk factors were derived from prospective data from the Asia-Pacific region. Hypertension was the leading vascular risk factor, explaining 20%-25% of all CHD and 36%-42% of all strokes in both sexes and approximately one-third of all CHD and half of all strokes across younger and older age groups alike. Smoking in men explained a substantial proportion of vascular events (25% of CHD and 17% of strokes). However, given that these risk factors are likely to be strongly correlated, these population attributable risk proportions are likely to be overestimates and require verification from future studies that are able to take into account correlation between risk factors. Implementation of effective population-based prevention strategies aimed at reducing levels of major cardiovascular risk factors, especially blood pressure, total cholesterol, and smoking prevalence among men, could reduce the growing burden of CVD in the Indonesian population.

Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

PubMed

van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

2017-02-01

Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

2012-11-01

In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

Quantifying Quality of Life and Disability of Patients with Advanced Schistosomiasis Japonica

PubMed Central

Jia, Tie-Wu; Utzinger, Jürg; Deng, Yao; Yang, Kun; Li, Yi-Yi; Zhu, Jin-Huan; King, Charles H.; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2011-01-01

Background The Chinese government lists advanced schistosomiasis as a leading healthcare priority due to its serious health and economic impacts, yet it has not been included in the estimates of schistosomiasis burden in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Therefore, the quality of life and disability weight (DW) for the advanced cases of schistosomiasis japonica have to be taken into account in the re-estimation of burden of disease due to schistosomiasis. Methodology/Principal Findings A patient-based quality-of-life evaluation was performed for advanced schistosomiasis japonica. Suspected or officially registered advanced cases in a Schistosoma japonicum-hyperendemic county of the People's Republic of China (P.R. China) were screened using a short questionnaire and physical examination. Disability and morbidity were assessed in confirmed cases, using the European quality of life questionnaire with an additional cognitive dimension (known as the “EQ-5D plus”), ultrasonography, and laboratory testing. The age-specific DW of advanced schistosomiasis japonica was estimated based on patients' self-rated health scores on the visual analogue scale of the questionnaire. The relationships between health status, morbidity and DW were explored using multivariate regression models. Of 506 candidates, 215 cases were confirmed as advanced schistosomiasis japonica and evaluated. Most of the patients reported impairments in at least one health dimension, such as pain or discomfort (90.7%), usual activities (87.9%), and anxiety or depression (80.9%). The overall DW was 0.447, and age-specific DWs ranged from 0.378 among individuals aged 30–44 years to 0.510 among the elderly aged ≥60 years. DWs are positively associated with loss of work capacity, psychological abnormality, ascites, and active hepatitis B virus, while splenectomy and high albumin were protective factors for quality of life. Conclusions/Significance These patient-preference disability estimates could provide updated data for a revision of the GBD, as well as for evidence-based decision-making in P.R. China's national schistosomiasis control program. PMID:21358814

Age-related changes in glial cells of dopamine midbrain subregions in rhesus monkeys.

PubMed

Kanaan, Nicholas M; Kordower, Jeffrey H; Collier, Timothy J

2010-06-01

Aging remains the strongest risk factor for developing Parkinson's disease (PD), and there is selective vulnerability in midbrain dopamine (DA) neuron degeneration in PD. By tracking normal aging-related changes with an emphasis on regional specificity, factors involved in selective vulnerability and resistance to degeneration can be studied. Towards this end, we sought to determine whether age-related changes in microglia and astrocytes in rhesus monkeys are region-specific, suggestive of involvement in regional differences in vulnerability to degeneration that may be relevant to PD pathogenesis. Gliosis in midbrain DA subregions was measured by estimating glia number using unbiased stereology, assessing fluorescence intensity for proteins upregulated during activation, and rating morphology. With normal aging, microglia exhibited increased staining intensity and a shift to more activated morphologies preferentially in the vulnerable substantia nigra-ventral tier (vtSN). Astrocytes did not exhibit age-related changes consistent with an involvement in regional vulnerability in any measure. Our results suggest advancing age is associated with chronic mild inflammation in the vtSN, which may render these DA neurons more vulnerable to degeneration. Copyright 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome among arab americans.

PubMed

Jaber, Linda A; Brown, Morton B; Hammad, Adnan; Zhu, Qian; Herman, William H

2004-01-01

To estimate the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in Arab Americans by age, sex, and BMI and to examine the association between insulin resistance and each of the components of the metabolic syndrome. We studied a representative, cross-sectional, population-based sample of 542 Arab Americans aged 20-75 years. The metabolic syndrome was defined by Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) and World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria. Insulin resistance was estimated by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR). The age-adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 23% (95% CI 19-26%) by the ATP III definition and 28% (24-32%) by the WHO definition. Although the prevalence increased significantly with age and BMI in both sexes by both definitions, differences in estimates were noted. With ATP III, the age-specific rates were similar for men and women aged 20-49 years but were significantly higher for women aged >/=50 years. With WHO, rates were higher for men than women aged 20-49 years and similar for those aged >/=50 years. The most common component of the metabolic syndrome in men and women was low HDL cholesterol with the ATP III and the presence of glucose intolerance and HOMA-IR with the WHO. Strong associations between HOMA-IR and individual components of the metabolic syndrome were observed. After fitting a model with HOMA-IR as the outcome, waist circumference, triglyceride level, and fasting plasma glucose level were significantly associated with HOMA-IR. The metabolic syndrome is common among Arab Americans and is related to modifiable risk factors.

Female breast cancer incidence among Asian and Western populations: more similar than expected.

PubMed

Sung, Hyuna; Rosenberg, Philip S; Chen, Wan-Qing; Hartman, Mikael; Lim, Wei-Yen; Chia, Kee Seng; Wai-Kong Mang, Oscar; Chiang, Chun-Ju; Kang, Daehee; Ngan, Roger Kai-Cheong; Tse, Lap Ah; Anderson, William F; Yang, Xiaohong R

2015-07-01

Previous reports suggested that female breast cancer is associated with earlier ages at onset among Asian than Western populations. However, most studies utilized cross-sectional analyses that may be confounded by calendar-period and/or birth cohort effects. We, therefore, considered a longitudinal (forward-looking) approach adjusted for calendar-period changes and conditioned upon birth cohort. Invasive female breast cancer data (1988-2009) were obtained from cancer registries in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the United States. Age-period-cohort models were used to extrapolate longitudinal age-specific incidence rates for the 1920, 1944, and 1970 birth cohorts. Cross-sectional age-specific incidence rates rose continuously until age 80 years among US white women, but plateaued or decreased after age 50 years among Asian women. In contrast, longitudinal age-specific rates were proportional (similar) among all Asian countries and the United States with incidence rates rising continuously until age 80 years. The extrapolated estimates for the most recent cohorts in some Asian countries actually showed later ages at onset than in the United States. Additionally, over successive birth cohorts, the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the longitudinal curves converged (narrowed) between Asian and US white women. Similar longitudinal age-specific incidence rates along with converging IRRs indicate that the age effects for invasive breast cancer are more similar among Asian and Western populations than might be expected from a solely cross-sectional analysis. Indeed, the Asian breast cancer rates in recent generations are even surpassing the historically high rates in the United States, highlighting an urgent need for efficient prevention and treatment strategies among Asian populations. Published by Oxford University Press 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Ngram time series model to predict activity type and energy cost from wrist, hip and ankle accelerometers: implications of age

PubMed Central

Strath, Scott J; Kate, Rohit J; Keenan, Kevin G; Welch, Whitney A; Swartz, Ann M

2016-01-01

To develop and test time series single site and multi-site placement models, we used wrist, hip and ankle processed accelerometer data to estimate energy cost and type of physical activity in adults. Ninety-nine subjects in three age groups (18–39, 40–64, 65 + years) performed 11 activities while wearing three triaxial accelereometers: one each on the non-dominant wrist, hip, and ankle. During each activity net oxygen cost (METs) was assessed. The time series of accelerometer signals were represented in terms of uniformly discretized values called bins. Support Vector Machine was used for activity classification with bins and every pair of bins used as features. Bagged decision tree regression was used for net metabolic cost prediction. To evaluate model performance we employed the jackknife leave-one-out cross validation method. Single accelerometer and multi-accelerometer site model estimates across and within age group revealed similar accuracy, with a bias range of −0.03 to 0.01 METs, bias percent of −0.8 to 0.3%, and a rMSE range of 0.81–1.04 METs. Multi-site accelerometer location models improved activity type classification over single site location models from a low of 69.3% to a maximum of 92.8% accuracy. For each accelerometer site location model, or combined site location model, percent accuracy classification decreased as a function of age group, or when young age groups models were generalized to older age groups. Specific age group models on average performed better than when all age groups were combined. A time series computation show promising results for predicting energy cost and activity type. Differences in prediction across age group, a lack of generalizability across age groups, and that age group specific models perform better than when all ages are combined needs to be considered as analytic calibration procedures to detect energy cost and type are further developed. PMID:26449155

Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children.

PubMed

Lee, Eunsol; Goo, Hyun Woo; Lee, Jae-Yeong

2015-08-01

It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children.

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2010-01-07

In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient’s clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller patients. However, the overall risk of cancer incidence attributable to the CT examination was much higher for the newborn (2.4 in 1000) than for the teenager (0.7 in 1000). For the two pediatric-aged patients in our study, CTDIvol underestimated dose to large organs in the scan coverage by 30%–48%. The effective dose derived from DLP using published conversion coefficients differed from that calculated using patient-specific organ dose values by −57% to 13%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 60 were used, and by −63% to 28%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 103 were used. Conclusions: It is possible to estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations by combining a validated Monte Carlo program with patient-specific anatomical models that are derived from the patients’ clinical CT data and supplemented by transformed models of reference adults. With the construction of a large library of patient-specific computer models encompassing patients of all ages and weight percentiles, dose and risk can be estimated for any patient prior to or after a CT examination. Such information may aid in decisions for image utilization and can further guide the design and optimization of CT technologies and scan protocols. PMID:21361209

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul

2011-01-15

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GEmore » Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller patients. However, the overall risk of cancer incidence attributable to the CT examination was much higher for the newborn (2.4 in 1000) than for the teenager (0.7 in 1000). For the two pediatric-aged patients in our study, CTDI{sub vol} underestimated dose to large organs in the scan coverage by 30%-48%. The effective dose derived from DLP using published conversion coefficients differed from that calculated using patient-specific organ dose values by -57% to 13%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 60 were used, and by -63% to 28%, when the tissue weighting factors of ICRP 103 were used. Conclusions: It is possible to estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations by combining a validated Monte Carlo program with patient-specific anatomical models that are derived from the patients' clinical CT data and supplemented by transformed models of reference adults. With the construction of a large library of patient-specific computer models encompassing patients of all ages and weight percentiles, dose and risk can be estimated for any patient prior to or after a CT examination. Such information may aid in decisions for image utilization and can further guide the design and optimization of CT technologies and scan protocols.« less

Injury-related mortality in South Africa: a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations

PubMed Central

Prinsloo, Megan; Pillay-van Wyk, Victoria; Gwebushe, Nomonde; Mathews, Shanaaz; Martin, Lorna J; Laubscher, Ria; Abrahams, Naeemah; Msemburi, William; Lombard, Carl; Bradshaw, Debbie

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate injury-related mortality in South Africa using a nationally representative sample and compare the results with previous estimates. Methods We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of medico-legal postmortem investigation data from mortuaries using a multistage random sample, stratified by urban and non-urban areas and mortuary size. We calculated age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for external causes of death. Findings Postmortem reports revealed 52 493 injury-related deaths in 2009 (95% confidence interval, CI: 46 930–58 057). Almost half (25 499) were intentionally inflicted. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 population were as follows: all injuries: 109.0 (95% CI: 97.1–121.0); homicide 38.4 (95% CI: 33.8–43.0; suicide 13.4 (95% CI: 11.6–15.2) and road-traffic injury 36.1 (95% CI: 30.9–41.3). Using postmortem reports, we found more than three times as many deaths from homicide and road-traffic injury than had been recorded by vital registration for this period. The homicide rate was similar to the estimate for South Africa from a global analysis, but road-traffic and suicide rates were almost fourfold higher. Conclusion This is the first nationally representative sample of injury-related mortality in South Africa. It provides more accurate estimates and cause-specific profiles that are not available from other sources. PMID:26229201

The prevalence of refractive errors among adults in the United States, Western Europe, and Australia.

PubMed

Kempen, John H; Mitchell, Paul; Lee, Kristine E; Tielsch, James M; Broman, Aimee T; Taylor, Hugh R; Ikram, M Kamran; Congdon, Nathan G; O'Colmain, Benita J

2004-04-01

To estimate the prevalence of refractive errors in persons 40 years and older. Counts of persons with phakic eyes with and without spherical equivalent refractive error in the worse eye of +3 diopters (D) or greater, -1 D or less, and -5 D or less were obtained from population-based eye surveys in strata of gender, race/ethnicity, and 5-year age intervals. Pooled age-, gender-, and race/ethnicity-specific rates for each refractive error were applied to the corresponding stratum-specific US, Western European, and Australian populations (years 2000 and projected 2020). Six studies provided data from 29 281 persons. In the US, Western European, and Australian year 2000 populations 40 years or older, the estimated crude prevalence for hyperopia of +3 D or greater was 9.9%, 11.6%, and 5.8%, respectively (11.8 million, 21.6 million, and 0.47 million persons). For myopia of -1 D or less, the estimated crude prevalence was 25.4%, 26.6%, and 16.4% (30.4 million, 49.6 million, and 1.3 million persons), respectively, of whom 4.5%, 4.6%, and 2.8% (5.3 million, 8.5 million, and 0.23 million persons), respectively, had myopia of -5 D or less. Projected prevalence rates in 2020 were similar. Refractive errors affect approximately one third of persons 40 years or older in the United States and Western Europe, and one fifth of Australians in this age group.

Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sasmal, Indrani; Klaver, Robert W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Schroeder, Greg M.

2016-01-01

In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography.

The WITS Atlas: A Black Southern African dental atlas for permanent tooth formation and emergence.

PubMed

Esan, Temitope A; Schepartz, Lynne A

2018-05-01

Current dental maturity charts, such as the widely applied London atlas, do not take into consideration advanced tooth emergence and formation patterns observed in children of African ancestry. The result is inaccurate age estimation in Southern Africa, a region where there is great forensic and anthropological need for reliable age estimation. To develop a population-specific atlas of permanent tooth emergence and formation for age estimation of Black Southern Africans. Using data from a cross-sectional study of 642 school children aged 5-20 years, panoramic radiographs taken during routine dental examination in a mobile treatment van were analyzed using the Demirjian method of eight (A-H) tooth formation stages. Tables of the stages of tooth development for each tooth, including the third molars, were generated separately for age cohorts and by sex. The most frequently occurring (modal) stage of tooth formation was considered the signature developmental stage for the age. The relationship of the third molar occlusal surfaces with occlusal tables on the radiographs were checked and compared with the findings recorded during intra oral examination. Comparison with the London atlas shows that at age 9.5 years, the canine and premolar emergence are at least one year ahead and the third molar formation completes four years earlier in the WITS Atlas. Similarities in advancement in tooth formation and emergence across sub-Saharan Africa suggest that the WITS Atlas can be used for those populations as well. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Age-independent anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) standard deviation scores to estimate ovarian function.

PubMed

Helden, Josef van; Weiskirchen, Ralf

2017-06-01

To determine single year age-specific anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) standard deviation scores (SDS) for women associated to normal ovarian function and different ovarian disorders resulting in sub- or infertility. Determination of particular year median and mean AMH values with standard deviations (SD), calculation of age-independent cut off SDS for the discrimination between normal ovarian function and ovarian disorders. Single-year-specific median, mean, and SD values have been evaluated for the Beckman Access AMH immunoassay. While the decrease of both median and mean AMH values is strongly correlated with increasing age, calculated SDS values have been shown to be age independent with the differentiation between normal ovarian function measured as occurred ovulation with sufficient luteal activity compared with hyperandrogenemic cycle disorders or anovulation associated with high AMH values and reduced ovarian activity or insufficiency associated with low AMH, respectively. These results will be helpful for the treatment of patients and the ventilation of the different reproductive options. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age-dependent tissue-specific exposure of cell phone users.

PubMed

Christ, Andreas; Gosselin, Marie-Christine; Christopoulou, Maria; Kühn, Sven; Kuster, Niels

2010-04-07

The peak spatial specific absorption rate (SAR) assessed with the standardized specific anthropometric mannequin head phantom has been shown to yield a conservative exposure estimate for both adults and children using mobile phones. There are, however, questions remaining concerning the impact of age-dependent dielectric tissue properties and age-dependent proportions of the skull, face and ear on the global and local absorption, in particular in the brain tissues. In this study, we compare the absorption in various parts of the cortex for different magnetic resonance imaging-based head phantoms of adults and children exposed to different models of mobile phones. The results show that the locally induced fields in children can be significantly higher (>3 dB) in subregions of the brain (cortex, hippocampus and hypothalamus) and the eye due to the closer proximity of the phone to these tissues. The increase is even larger for bone marrow (>10 dB) as a result of its significantly high conductivity. Tissues such as the pineal gland show no increase since their distances to the phone are not a function of age. This study, however, confirms previous findings saying that there are no age-dependent changes of the peak spatial SAR when averaged over the entire head.

Age-dependent tissue-specific exposure of cell phone users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christ, Andreas; Gosselin, Marie-Christine; Christopoulou, Maria; Kühn, Sven; Kuster, Niels

2010-04-01

The peak spatial specific absorption rate (SAR) assessed with the standardized specific anthropometric mannequin head phantom has been shown to yield a conservative exposure estimate for both adults and children using mobile phones. There are, however, questions remaining concerning the impact of age-dependent dielectric tissue properties and age-dependent proportions of the skull, face and ear on the global and local absorption, in particular in the brain tissues. In this study, we compare the absorption in various parts of the cortex for different magnetic resonance imaging-based head phantoms of adults and children exposed to different models of mobile phones. The results show that the locally induced fields in children can be significantly higher (>3 dB) in subregions of the brain (cortex, hippocampus and hypothalamus) and the eye due to the closer proximity of the phone to these tissues. The increase is even larger for bone marrow (>10 dB) as a result of its significantly high conductivity. Tissues such as the pineal gland show no increase since their distances to the phone are not a function of age. This study, however, confirms previous findings saying that there are no age-dependent changes of the peak spatial SAR when averaged over the entire head.

Estimating vaccine effectiveness against severe influenza in England and Scotland 2011/2012: applying the screening method to data from intensive care surveillance systems.

PubMed

Thomas, H L; Andrews, N; Green, H K; Boddington, N L; Zhao, H; Reynolds, A; McMenamin, J; Pebody, R G

2014-01-01

Methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe influenza are not well established. We used the screening method to estimate VE against influenza resulting in intensive care unit (ICU) admission in England and Scotland in 2011/2012. We extracted data on confirmed influenza ICU cases from severe influenza surveillance systems, and obtained their 2011/2012 trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) status from primary care. We compared case vaccine uptake with population vaccine uptake obtained from routine monitoring systems, adjusting for age group, specific risk group, region and week. Of 60 influenza ICU cases reported, vaccination status was available for 56 (93%). Adjusted VE against ICU admission for those aged ≥ 65 years was -10% [95% confidence interval (CI) -207 to 60], consistent with evidence of poor protection from the 2011/2012 TIV in 2011/2012. Adjusted VE for those aged <65 years in risk groups was -296% (95% CI -930 to -52), suggesting significant residual confounding using the screening method in those subject to selective vaccination.

Hidden levels of phylodiversity in Antarctic green algae: further evidence for the existence of glacial refugia

PubMed Central

De Wever, Aaike; Leliaert, Frederik; Verleyen, Elie; Vanormelingen, Pieter; Van der Gucht, Katleen; Hodgson, Dominic A.; Sabbe, Koen; Vyverman, Wim

2009-01-01

Recent data revealed that metazoans such as mites and springtails have persisted in Antarctica throughout several glacial–interglacial cycles, which contradicts the existing paradigm that terrestrial life was wiped out by successive glacial events and that the current inhabitants are recent colonizers. We used molecular phylogenetic techniques to study Antarctic microchlorophyte strains isolated from lacustrine habitats from maritime and continental Antarctica. The 14 distinct chlorophycean and trebouxiophycean lineages observed point to a wide phylogenetic diversity of apparently endemic Antarctic lineages at different taxonomic levels. This supports the hypothesis that long-term survival took place in glacial refugia, resulting in a specific Antarctic flora. The majority of the lineages have estimated ages between 17 and 84 Ma and probably diverged from their closest relatives around the time of the opening of Drake Passage (30–45 Ma), while some lineages with longer branch lengths have estimated ages that precede the break-up of Gondwana. The variation in branch length and estimated age points to several independent but rare colonization events. PMID:19625320

Rural-urban comparisons of dengue seroprevalence in Malaysia.

PubMed

Chew, Cheng Hoon; Woon, Yuan Liang; Amin, Faridah; Adnan, Tassha H; Abdul Wahab, Asmah Hani; Ahmad, Zul Edzhar; Bujang, Mohd Adam; Abdul Hamid, Abdul Muneer; Jamal, Rahman; Chen, Wei Seng; Hor, Chee Peng; Yeap, Lena; Hoo, Ling Ping; Goh, Pik Pin; Lim, Teck Onn

2016-08-18

Each year an estimated 390 million dengue infections occur worldwide. In Malaysia, dengue is a growing public health concern but estimate of its disease burden remains uncertain. We compared the urban-rural difference of dengue seroprevalence and determined age-specific dengue seroprevalence in Malaysia. We undertook analysis on 11,821 subjects from six seroprevalence surveys conducted in Malaysia between 2001 and 2013, which composed of five urban and two rural series. Prevalence of dengue increased with age in both urban and rural locations in Malaysia, which exceeded 90 % among those aged 70 years or beyond. The age-specific rates of the 5 urban surveys overlapped without clear separation among them, while prevalence was lower in younger subjects in rural series than in urban series, the trend reversed in older subjects. There were no differences in the seroprevalence by gender, ethnicity or region. Poisson regression model confirmed the prevalence have not changed in urban areas since 2001 but in rural areas, there was a significant positive time trend such that by year 2008, rural prevalence was as high as in urban areas. Dengue seroprevalence has stabilized but persisted at a high level in urban areas since 2001, and is fast stabilizing in rural areas at the same high urban levels by 2008. The cumulative seroprevalence of dengue exceeds 90 % by the age of 70 years, which translates into 16.5 million people or 55 % of the total population in Malaysia, being infected by dengue by 2013.

The Burden of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in the United States

PubMed Central

Strollo, Sara E.; Adjemian, Jennifer; Adjemian, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: State-specific case numbers and costs are critical for quantifying the burden of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease in the United States. Objectives: To estimate and project national and state annual cases of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease and associated direct medical costs. Methods: Available direct cost estimates of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease medical encounters were applied to nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence estimates derived from Medicare beneficiary data (2003–2007). Prevalence was adjusted for International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, undercoding and the inclusion of persons younger than 65 years of age. U.S. Census Bureau data identified 2010 and 2014 population counts and 2012 primary insurance-type distribution. Medical costs were reported in constant 2014 dollars. Projected 2014 estimates were adjusted for population growth and assumed a previously published 8% annual growth rate of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence. Measurements and Main Results: In 2010, we estimated 86,244 national cases, totaling to $815 million, of which 87% were inpatient related ($709 million) and 13% were outpatient related ($106 million). Annual state estimates varied from 48 to 12,544 cases ($503,000–$111 million), with a median of 1,208 cases ($11.5 million). Oceanic coastline states and Gulf States comprised 70% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease cases but 60% of the U.S. population. Medical encounters among individuals aged 65 years and older ($562 million) were twofold higher than those younger than 65 years of age ($253 million). Of all costs incurred, medications comprised 76% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease expenditures. Projected 2014 estimates resulted in 181,037 national annual cases ($1.7 billion). Conclusions: For a relatively rare disease, the financial cost of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is substantial, particularly among older adults. Better data on disease dynamics and more recent prevalence estimates will generate more robust estimates. PMID:26214350

Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

2012-01-01

Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

Validation of accelerated ageing of Thales rotary Stirling cryocoolers for the estimation of MTTF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seguineau, C.,; Cauquil, J.-M.; Martin, J.-Y.; Benschop, T.

2016-05-01

The cooled IR detectors are used in a wide range of applications. Most of the time, the cryocoolers are one of the components dimensioning the lifetime of the system. The current market needs tend to reliability figures higher than 15,000hrs in "standard conditions". Field returns are hardly useable mostly because of the uncertain environmental conditions of use, or the differences in user profiles. A previous paper explains how Thales Cryogenics has developed an approach based on accelerated ageing and statistical analysis [1]. The aim of the current paper is to compare results obtained on accelerated ageing on one side, and on the other side, specific field returns where the conditions of use are well known. The comparison between prediction and effective failure rate is discussed. Moreover, a specific focus is done on how some new applications of cryocoolers (continuous operation at a specific temperature) can increase the MTTF. Some assumptions are also exposed on how the failure modes, effects and criticality analysis evolves for continuous operation at a specific temperature and compared to experimental data.

Variance in age-specific sex composition of Pacific halibut catches, and comparison of statistical and genetic methods for reconstructing sex ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loher, Timothy; Woods, Monica A.; Jimenez-Hidalgo, Isadora; Hauser, Lorenz

2016-01-01

Declines in size at age of Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis, in concert with sexually-dimorphic growth and a constant minimum commercial size limit, have led to the expectation that the sex composition of commercial catches should be increasingly female-biased. Sensitivity analyses suggest that variance in sex composition of landings may be the most influential source of uncertainty affecting current understanding of spawning stock biomass. However, there is no reliable way to determine sex at landing because all halibut are eviscerated at sea. In 2014, a statistical method based on survey data was developed to estimate the probability that fish of any given length at age (LAA) would be female, derived from the fundamental observation that large, young fish are likely female whereas small, old fish have a high probability of being male. Here, we examine variability in age-specific sex composition using at-sea commercial and closed-season survey catches, and compare the accuracy of the survey-based LAA technique to genetic markers for reconstructing the sex composition of catches. Sexing by LAA performed best for summer-collected samples, consistent with the hypothesis that the ability to characterize catches can be influenced by seasonal demographic shifts. Additionally, differences between survey and commercial selectivity that allow fishers to harvest larger fish within cohorts may generate important mismatch between survey and commercial datasets. Length-at-age-based estimates ranged from 4.7% underestimation of female proportion to 12.0% overestimation, with mean error of 5.8 ± 1.5%. Ratios determined by genetics were closer to true sample proportions and displayed less variability; estimation to within < 1% of true ratios was limited to genetics. Genetic estimation of female proportions ranged from 4.9% underestimation to 2.5% overestimation, with a mean absolute error of 1.2 ± 1.2%. Males were generally more difficult to assign than females: 6.7% of males and 3.4% of females were incorrectly assigned. Although nuclear microsatellites proved more consistent at partitioning catches by sex, we recommend that SNP assays be developed to allow for rapid, cost-effective, and accurate sex identification.

Variability and accuracy in interpretation of consolidation on chest radiography for diagnosing pneumonia in children under 5 years of age.

PubMed

Williams, Gabrielle J; Macaskill, Petra; Kerr, Marianne; Fitzgerald, Dominic A; Isaacs, David; Codarini, Miriam; McCaskill, Mary; Prelog, Kristina; Craig, Jonathan C

2013-12-01

Consolidation on chest radiography is widely used as the reference standard for defining pneumonia and variability in interpretation is well known but not well explored or explained. Three pediatric sub-specialists (infectious diseases, radiology and respiratory medicine) viewed 3,033 chest radiographs in children aged under 5 years of age who presented to one Emergency Department (ED) with a febrile illness. Radiographs were viewed blind to clinical information about the child and blind to findings of other readers. Each chest radiograph was identified as positive or negative for consolidation. Percentage agreement and kappa scores were calculated for pairs of readers. Prevalence of consolidation and reader sensitivity/specificity was estimated using latent class analysis. Using the majority rule, 456 (15%) chest radiographs were positive for consolidation while the latent class estimate was 17%. The radiologist was most likely (21.3%) and respiratory physician least likely (13.7%) to diagnose consolidation. Overall percentage agreement for pairs of readers was 85-90%. However, chance corrected agreement between the readers was moderate, with kappa scores 0.4-0.6 and did not vary with patient characteristics (age, gender, and presence of chronic illness). Estimated sensitivity ranged from 0.71 to 0.81 across readers, and specificity 0.91 to 0.98. Overall agreement for identification of consolidation on chest radiographs was good, but agreement adjusted for chance was only moderate and did not vary with patient characteristics. Clinicians need to be aware that chest radiography is an imperfect test for diagnosing pneumonia and has considerable variability in its interpretation. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modelling postfledging survival and age- specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected to be due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine.

PubMed

Povoroznyuk, V V; Grygorieva, N V; Kanis, J A; Ev, McCloskey; Johansson, H; Harvey, N C; Korzh, M O; Strafun, S S; Vaida, V M; Klymovytsky, F V; Vlasenko, R O; Forosenko, V S

2017-12-01

A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk. FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine. The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512). The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture. The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.

Increased Cancer Risks in Myotonic Dystrophy

PubMed Central

Win, Aung Ko; Perattur, Promilla G.; Pulido, Jose S.; Pulido, Christine M.; Lindor, Noralane M.

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate cancer risks for patients with myotonic dystrophy, given that increased risks for neoplasms in association with myotonic dystrophy type 1 and type 2 have been suggested in several studies but the risks of cancers have not been quantified. Patients and Methods A cohort of 307 patients with myotonic dystrophy identified from medical records of Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, from January 1, l993, through May 28, 2010, was retrospectively analyzed. We estimated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of specific cancers for patients with myotonic dystrophy compared with age- and sex-specific cancer incidences of the general population. Age-dependent cumulative risks were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results A total of 53 cancers were observed at a median age at diagnosis of 55 years. Patients with myotonic dystrophy had an increased risk of thyroid cancer (SIR, 5.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80-12.93; P=.001) and choroidal melanoma (SIR, 27.54; 95% CI, 3.34-99.49; P<.001). They may also have an increased risk of testicular cancer (SIR, 5.09; 95% CI, 0.62-18.38; P=.06) and prostate cancer (SIR, 2.21; 95% CI, 0.95-4.35; P=.05). The estimated cumulative risks at age 50 years were 1.72% (95% CI, 0.64%-4.55%) for thyroid cancer and 1.00% (95% CI, 0.25%-3.92%) for choroidal melanoma. There was no statistical evidence of an increased risk of brain, breast, colorectal, lung, renal, bladder, endometrial, or ovarian cancer; lymphoma; leukemia; or multiple myeloma. Conclusion Patients with myotonic dystrophy may have an increased risk of thyroid cancer and choroidal melanoma and, possibly, testicular and prostate cancers. PMID:22237010

A Molecular Clock Infers Heterogeneous Tissue Age Among Patients with Barrett’s Esophagus

PubMed Central

Wong, Chao-Jen; Hazelton, William D.; Kaz, Andrew M.; Willis, Joseph E.; Grady, William M.; Luebeck, E. Georg

2016-01-01

Biomarkers that drift differentially with age between normal and premalignant tissues, such as Barrett’s esophagus (BE), have the potential to improve the assessment of a patient’s cancer risk by providing quantitative information about how long a patient has lived with the precursor (i.e., dwell time). In the case of BE, which is a metaplastic precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), such biomarkers would be particularly useful because EAC risk may change with BE dwell time and it is generally not known how long a patient has lived with BE when a patient is first diagnosed with this condition. In this study we first describe a statistical analysis of DNA methylation data (both cross-sectional and longitudinal) derived from tissue samples from 50 BE patients to identify and validate a set of 67 CpG dinucleotides in 51 CpG islands that undergo age-related methylomic drift. Next, we describe how this information can be used to estimate a patient’s BE dwell time. We introduce a Bayesian model that incorporates longitudinal methylomic drift rates, patient age, and methylation data from individually paired BE and normal squamous tissue samples to estimate patient-specific BE onset times. Our application of the model to 30 sporadic BE patients’ methylomic profiles first exposes a wide heterogeneity in patient-specific BE onset times. Furthermore, independent application of this method to a cohort of 22 familial BE (FBE) patients reveals significantly earlier mean BE onset times. Our analysis supports the conjecture that differential methylomic drift occurs in BE (relative to normal squamous tissue) and hence allows quantitative estimation of the time that a BE patient has lived with BE. PMID:27168458

Heterogeneous population effects of an alcohol excise tax increase on sexually transmitted infections morbidity

PubMed Central

Staras, Stephanie A S; Livingston, Melvin D; Christou, Alana M; Jernigan, David H; Wagenaar, Alexander C

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Alcohol taxes reduce population-level excessive alcohol use and alcohol-related morbidity and mortality, yet little is known about the distribution of the effects of alcohol taxation across race/ethnicity and age subgroups. We examined the race/ethnicity- and age group-specific effects of an excise alcohol tax increase on a common and routinely collected alcohol-related morbidity indicator, sexually transmitted infections. Methods We used an interrupted time series design to examine the effect of a 2009 alcohol tax increase in Illinois, USA on new cases of two common sexually transmitted infections (chlamydia and gonorrhea) reported to the US National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System from January 2003 to December 2011 (n = 108 repeated monthly observations). We estimated the effects of the tax increase on infection rates in the general population and within specific race/ethnicity and age subgroups using mixed models accounting for temporal trends and median income. Results Following the Illinois alcohol tax increase, state-wide rates of gonorrhea decreased 21% [95% confidence Interval (CI) = −25.7, −16.7] and chlamydia decreased 11% [95% CI = −17.8, −4.4], resulting in an estimated 3506 fewer gonorrhea infections and 5844 fewer chlamydia infections annually. The null hypothesis of homogenous effects by race/ethnicity and age was rejected (P < 0.0001). Significant reductions were observed among non-Hispanic blacks: gonorrhea rates decreased 25.6% (95% CI = −30.0, −21.0) and chlamydia rates decreased 14.7% (95% CI = −20.9, −8.0). Among non-Hispanics, point estimates suggest decreases were highest among 25–29-year-olds. Conclusions Increased alcohol taxes appear to reduce sexually transmitted infections, especially among subpopulations with high disease burdens, such as non-Hispanic blacks. PMID:24450730

Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

PubMed

Wang, Haidong; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Lofgren, Katherine T; Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll; Marcus, Jacob R; Levin-Rector, Alison; Levitz, Carly E; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L

2012-12-15

Estimation of the number and rate of deaths by age and sex is a key first stage for calculation of the burden of disease in order to constrain estimates of cause-specific mortality and to measure premature mortality in populations. We aimed to estimate life tables and annual numbers of deaths for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010. We estimated trends in under-5 mortality rate (children aged 0-4 years) and probability of adult death (15-59 years) for each country with all available data. Death registration data were available for more than 100 countries and we corrected for undercount with improved death distribution methods. We applied refined methods to survey data on sibling survival that correct for survivor, zero-sibling, and recall bias. We separately estimated mortality from natural disasters and wars. We generated final estimates of under-5 mortality and adult mortality from the data with Gaussian process regression. We used these results as input parameters in a relational model life table system. We developed a model to extrapolate mortality to 110 years of age. All death rates and numbers have been estimated with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). From 1970 to 2010, global male life expectancy at birth increased from 56·4 years (95% UI 55·5-57·2) to 67·5 years (66·9-68·1) and global female life expectancy at birth increased from 61·2 years (60·2-62·0) to 73·3 years (72·8-73·8). Life expectancy at birth rose by 3-4 years every decade from 1970, apart from during the 1990s (increase in male life expectancy of 1·4 years and in female life expectancy of 1·6 years). Substantial reductions in mortality occurred in eastern and southern sub-Saharan Africa since 2004, coinciding with increased coverage of antiretroviral therapy and preventive measures against malaria. Sex-specific changes in life expectancy from 1970 to 2010 ranged from gains of 23-29 years in the Maldives and Bhutan to declines of 1-7 years in Belarus, Lesotho, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe. Globally, 52·8 million (95% UI 51·6-54·1 million) deaths occurred in 2010, which is about 13·5% more than occurred in 1990 (46·5 million [45·7-47·4 million]), and 21·9% more than occurred in 1970 (43·3 million [42·2-44·6 million]). Proportionally more deaths in 2010 occurred at age 70 years and older (42·8% in 2010 vs 33·1% in 1990), and 22·9% occurred at 80 years or older. Deaths in children younger than 5 years declined by almost 60% since 1970 (16·4 million [16·1-16·7 million] in 1970 vs 6·8 million [6·6-7·1 million] in 2010), especially at ages 1-59 months (10·8 million [10·4-11·1 million] in 1970 vs 4·0 million [3·8-4·2 million] in 2010). In all regions, including those most affected by HIV/AIDS, we noted increases in mean ages at death. Despite global and regional health crises, global life expectancy has increased continuously and substantially in the past 40 years. Yet substantial heterogeneity exists across age groups, among countries, and over different decades. 179 of 187 countries have had increases in life expectancy after the slowdown in progress in the 1990s. Efforts should be directed to reduce mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Potential underestimation of achievement of the Millennium Development Goal 4 might result from limitations of demographic data on child mortality for the most recent time period. Improvement of civil registration system worldwide is crucial for better tracking of global mortality. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using age on clothes size label to estimate weight in emergency paediatric patients.

PubMed

Elgie, Laura D; Williams, Andrew R

2012-10-01

To study formulae that estimate children's weight using their actual age. To determine whether using the age on their clothes size label in these formulae can estimate weight when their actual age is unknown. The actual age and age on the clothes labels of 188 children were inserted into formulae that estimate children's weight. These estimates were compared with their actual weight. Bland-Altman plots calculated the precision and accuracy of each of these estimates. In all formulae, using age on the clothes sizes label provided a more precise estimate than the child's actual age. In emergencies where a child's age is unknown, use of the age on their clothes label in weight-estimating formulae yields acceptable weight estimates. Even in situations where a child's age is known, the age on their clothes label may provide a more accurate and precise weight estimate than the actual age.

Consumption, Retirement and Social Security: Evaluating the Efficiency of Reform that Encourages Longer Careers*

PubMed Central

Laitner, John; Silverman, Dan

2012-01-01

This paper proposes and analyzes a Social Security reform in which individuals no longer face the OASI payroll tax after, say, age 54 or a career of 34 years, and their subsequent earnings have no bearing on their benefits. We first estimate parameters of a life–cycle model. Our specification includes non-separable preferences and possible disability. It predicts a consumption–expenditure change at retirement. We use the magnitude of the expenditure change, together with households’ retirement–age decisions, to identify key structural parameters. The estimated magnitude of the change in consumption–expenditure depends importantly on the treatment of consumption by adult children of the household. Simulations indicate that the reform could increase retirement ages one year or more, equivalent variations could average more than $4,000 per household, and income tax revenues per household could increase by more than $14,000. PMID:23729902

Adjusting for car occupant injury liability in relation to age, speed limit, and gender-specific driver crash involvement risk.

PubMed

Keall, Michael; Frith, William

2004-12-01

It is well established that older drivers' fragility is an important factor associated with higher levels of fatal crash involvement for older drivers. There has been less research on age-related fragility with respect to the sort of minor injuries that are more common in injury crashes. This study estimates a quantity that is related to injury fragility: the probability that a driver or a passenger of that driver will be injured in crashes involving two cars. The effects of other factors apart from drivers' fragility are included in this measure, including the fragility of the passengers, the crashworthiness of cars driven, seatbelt use by the occupants, and characteristics of crashes (including configuration and impact speed). The car occupant injury liability estimates appropriately includes these factors to adjust risk curves by age, gender, and speed limit accounting for overrepresentation in crashes associated with fragility and these other factors.

Estimated maturity status and perceptions of adult autonomy support in youth soccer players.

PubMed

Cumming, Sean P; Battista, Rebecca A; Martyn, Standage; Ewing, Martha E; Malina, Robert M

2006-10-01

In this study, we examined the relations between biological maturity status, body mass index, age, and perceptions of adult autonomy support in the context of youth soccer. A total of 70 female and 43 male soccer players, aged 9 - 15 years, completed three adult-specific versions (i.e. mother, father, coach) of the perceived autonomy support subscale from the Interpersonal Style Scale. The participants' percent predicted adult stature was used as an estimate of biological maturity status. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that advanced maturity status in male players predicted lower perceptions of autonomy support from the coach. Maturity status was unrelated to perceptions of autonomy support from the coach in female soccer players, and paternal and maternal autonomy support in male and female players. Age and body mass index were unrelated to perceptions of adult (i.e. coach, mother, father) autonomy support in male and female players.

Estimating the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on respiratory hospital admissions in children less than five years of age in England, 2007-2012.

PubMed

Reeves, Rachel Melanie; Hardelid, Pia; Gilbert, Ruth; Warburton, Fiona; Ellis, Joanna; Pebody, Richard G

2017-03-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospital admission in young children. With several RSV vaccines candidates undergoing clinical trials, recent estimates of RSV burden are required to provide a baseline for vaccine impact studies. To estimate the number of RSV-associated hospital admissions in children aged <5 years in England over a 5-year period from 2007 using ecological time series modelling of national hospital administrative data. Multiple linear regression modelling of weekly time series of laboratory surveillance data and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data was used to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to major respiratory pathogens including RSV in children <5 years of age in England from mid-2007 to mid-2012, stratified by age group (<6 months, 6-11 months, 1-4 years) and primary diagnosis: bronchiolitis, pneumonia, unspecified lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), bronchitis and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). On average, 33 561 (95% confidence interval 30 429-38 489) RSV-associated hospital admissions in children <5 years of age occurred annually from 2007 to 2012. Average annual admission rates were 35.1 (95% CI: 32.9-38.9) per 1000 children aged <1 year and 5.31 (95% CI: 4.5-6.6) per 1000 children aged 1-4 years. About 84% (95% CI: 81-91%) of RSV-associated admissions were for LRTI. The diagnosis-specific burden of RSV-associated admissions differed significantly by age group. RSV remains a significant cause of hospital admissions in young children in England. Individual-level analysis of RSV-associated admissions is required to fully describe the burden by age and risk group and identify optimal prevention strategies. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Body Size of Male Youth Soccer Players: 1978-2015.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Figueiredo, António J; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

2017-10-01

Studies of the body size and proportions of athletes have a long history. Comparisons of athletes within specific sports across time, though not extensive, indicate both positive and negative trends. To evaluate secular variation in heights and weights of male youth soccer players reported in studies between 1978 and 2015. Reported mean ages, heights, and weights of male soccer players 9-18 years of age were extracted from the literature and grouped into two intervals: 1978-99 and 2000-15. A third-order polynomial was fitted to the mean heights and weights across the age range for each interval, while the Preece-Baines model 1 was fitted to the grand means of mean heights and mean weights within each chronological year to estimate ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity for each time interval. Third-order polynomials applied to all data points and estimates based on the Preece-Baines model applied to grand means for each age group provided similar fits. Both indicated secular changes in body size between the two intervals. Secular increases in height and weight between 1978-99 and 2000-15 were especially apparent between 13 and 16 years of age, but estimated ages at peak height velocity (13.01 and 12.91 years) and peak weight velocity (13.86 and 13.77 years) did not differ between the time intervals. Although the body size of youth soccer players increased between 1978-99 and 2000-15, estimated ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity did not change. The increase in height and weight likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions, in addition to the selectivity of soccer reflected in systematic selection and retention of players advanced in maturity status, and exclusion of late maturing players beginning at about 12-13 years of age. Enhanced training programs aimed at the development of strength and power are probably an additional factor contributing to secular increases in body weight.

Modeling movement and fidelity of American black ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimpfer, N.L.; Conroy, M.J.

2006-01-01

Spatial relationships among stocks of breeding waterfowl can be an important component of harvest management. Prediction and optimal harvest management under adaptive harvest management (AHM) requires information on the spatial relationships among breeding populations (fidelity and inter-year exchange), as well as rates of movements from breeding to harvest regions. We used band-recovery data to develop a model to estimate probabilities of movement for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) among 3 Canadian breeding strata and 6 harvest regions (3 in Canada, and 3 in the United States) over the period 1965-1998. Model selection criteria suggested that models containing area-, year-, and age-specific recovery rates with area- and sex-specific movement rates were the best for modeling movement. Movement by males to southern harvest areas was variable depending on the originating area. Males from the western breeding area predominantly moved to the Mississippi Flyway or southern Atlantic Flyway (??ij = 0.353, SE = 0.0187 and ??ij = 0.473, SE = 0.037, respectively), whereas males that originated in the eastern and central breeding strata moved to the northern Atlantic flyway (??ij = 0.842, SE = 0.010 and ??ij = 0.578, SE = 0.0222, respectively). We used combined recoveries and recaptures in Program MARK to estimate fidelity to the 3 Canadian breeding strata. Information criteria identified a model containing sex- and age-specific fidelity for black ducks. Estimates of fidelity were 0.9695 (SE = 0.0249) and 0.9554 (SE = 0.0434) for adult males and females, respectively. Estimates of fidelity for juveniles were slightly lower at 0.9210 (SE = 0.0931) and 0.8870 (SE = 0.0475) for males and females, respectively. These models have application to the development of spatially stratified black duck harvest management models for use in AHM.

Survival of Parents and Siblings of Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V.; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T.

2011-01-01

Background Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age ≥ 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Methods Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Results Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians’ siblings was ~81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%–20% (12–14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%–14% (8–10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. Conclusions The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility. PMID:17895443

Survival of parents and siblings of supercentenarians.

PubMed

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T

2007-09-01

Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age >or= 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians' siblings was approximately 81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%-20% (12-14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%-14% (8-10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility.

Increased incidence of penile cancer and high-grade penile intraepithelial neoplasia in Denmark 1978-2008: a nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Baldur-Felskov, Birgitte; Hannibal, Charlotte Gerd; Munk, Christian; Kjaer, Susanne K

2012-02-01

To assess the trends in incidence of penile cancer during 1978-2008 and high-grade penile intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN2/3) during 1998-2008 in Denmark. Using two nationwide registries, we estimated age- and period-specific incidence rates. Log-linear Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We identified 1,488 men with penile cancer and 285 men with PIN2/3. The incidence of penile cancer increased from 1.0 to 1.3 per 100,000 men-years in 1978-1979 to 2006-2008; this represented an AAPC of 0.8% (95% CI: 0.17-1.37). Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) was the most common histological type (91.7%). The median age at diagnosis was 67 years, and the age-specific incidence rate of penile SCC increased with increasing age. The incidence rate of PIN2/3 increased significantly (0.5 to 0.9 per 100,000 men-years) in 1998-1999 to 2006-2008, and this represented an AAPC of 7.1% (95% CI: 3.30-11.05). The incidence of penile cancer increased in 1978-2008 in Denmark, and the same applied to PIN2/3 in 1998-2008. A high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) and a low circumcision rate in Denmark may partly explain our results.

Long-term longitudinal changes in baseline PSA distribution and estimated prevalence of prostate cancer in male Japanese participants of population-based PSA screening.

PubMed

Oki, Ryo; Ito, Kazuto; Suzuki, Rie; Fujizuka, Yuji; Arai, Seiji; Miyazawa, Yoshiyuki; Sekine, Yoshitaka; Koike, Hidekazu; Matsui, Hiroshi; Shibata, Yasuhiro; Suzuki, Kazuhiro

2018-04-26

Japan has experienced a drastic increase in the incidence of prostate cancer (PC). To assess changes in the risk for PC, we investigated baseline prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels in first-time screened men, across a 25-year period. In total, 72,654 men, aged 50-79, underwent first-time PSA screening in Gunma prefecture between 1992 and 2016. Changes in the distribution of PSA levels were investigated, including the percentage of men with a PSA above cut-off values and linear regression analyses comparing log 10 PSA with age. The 'ultimate incidence' of PC and clinically significant PC (CSPC) were estimated using the PC risk calculator. Changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (AIR) during this period were analyzed. The calculated coefficients of linear regression for age versus log 10 PSA fluctuated during the 25-year period, but no trend was observed. In addition, the percentage of men with a PSA above cut-off values varied in each 5-year period, with no specific trend. The 'risk calculator (RC)-based AIR' of PC and CSPC were stable between 1992 and 2016. Therefore, the baseline risk for developing PC has remained unchanged in the past 25 years, in Japan. The drastic increase in the incidence of PC, beginning around 2000, may be primarily due to increased PSA screening in the country. © 2018 UICC.

Estimated intake of the artificial sweeteners acesulfame-K, aspartame, cyclamate and saccharin in a group of Swedish diabetics.

PubMed

Ilbäck, N-G; Alzin, M; Jahrl, S; Enghardt-Barbieri, H; Busk, L

2003-02-01

Few sweetener intake studies have been performed on the general population and only one study has been specifically designed to investigate diabetics and children. This report describes a Swedish study on the estimated intake of the artificial sweeteners acesulfame-K, aspartame, cyclamate and saccharin by children (0-15 years) and adult male and female diabetics (types I and II) of various ages (16-90 years). Altogether, 1120 participants were asked to complete a questionnaire about their sweetener intake. The response rate (71%, range 59-78%) was comparable across age and gender groups. The most consumed 'light' foodstuffs were diet soda, cider, fruit syrup, table powder, table tablets, table drops, ice cream, chewing gum, throat lozenges, sweets, yoghurt and vitamin C. The major sources of sweetener intake were beverages and table powder. About 70% of the participants, equally distributed across all age groups, read the manufacturer's specifications of the food products' content. The estimated intakes showed that neither men nor women exceeded the ADI for acesulfame-K; however, using worst-case calculations, high intakes were found in young children (169% of ADI). In general, the aspartame intake was low. Children had the highest estimated (worst case) intake of cyclamate (317% of ADI). Children's estimated intake of saccharin only slightly exceeded the ADI at the 5% level for fruit syrup. Children had an unexpected high intake of tabletop sweeteners, which, in Sweden, is normally based on cyclamate. The study was performed during two winter months when it can be assumed that the intake of sweeteners was lower as compared with during warm, summer months. Thus, the present study probably underestimates the average intake on a yearly basis. However, our worst-case calculations based on maximum permitted levels were performed on each individual sweetener, although exposure is probably relatively evenly distributed among all sweeteners, except for cyclamate containing table sweeteners.

Estimation model for habitual 24-hour urinary-sodium excretion using simple questionnaires from normotensive Koreans.

PubMed

Kong, Ji-Sook; Lee, Yeon-Kyung; Kim, Mi Kyung; Choi, Mi-Kyeong; Heo, Young-Ran; Hyun, Taisun; Kim, Sun Mee; Lyu, Eun-Soon; Oh, Se-Young; Park, Hae-Ryun; Rhee, Moo-Yong; Ro, Hee-Kyong; Song, Mi Kyung

2018-01-01

This study was conducted to develop an equation for estimation of 24-h urinary-sodium excretion that can serve as an alternative to 24-h dietary recall and 24-h urine collection for normotensive Korean adults. In total, data on 640 healthy Korean adults aged 19 to 69 years from 4 regions of the country were collected as a training set. In order to externally validate the equation developed from that training set, 200 subjects were recruited independently as a validation set. Due to heterogeneity by gender, we constructed a gender-specific equation for estimation of 24-h urinary-sodium excretion by using a multivariable linear regression model and assessed the performance of the developed equation in validation set. The best model consisted of age, body weight, dietary behavior ('eating salty food', 'Kimchi consumption', 'Korean soup or stew consumption', 'soy sauce or red pepper paste consumption'), and smoking status in men, and age, body weight, dietary behavior ('salt preference', 'eating salty food', 'checking sodium content for processed foods', 'nut consumption'), and smoking status in women, respectively. When this model was tested in the external validation set, the mean bias between the measured and estimated 24-h urinary-sodium excretion from Bland-Altman plots was -1.92 (95% CI: -113, 110) mmol/d for men and -1.51 (95% CI: -90.6, 87.6) mmol/d for women. The cut-points of sodium intake calculated based on the equations were ≥4,000 mg/d for men and ≥3,500 mg/d for women, with 89.8 and 76.6% sensitivity and 29.3 and 64.2% specificity, respectively. In this study, a habitual 24-hour urinary-sodium-excretion-estimation model of normotensive Korean adults based on anthropometric and lifestyle factors was developed and showed feasibility for an asymptomatic population.

Estimation model for habitual 24-hour urinary-sodium excretion using simple questionnaires from normotensive Koreans

PubMed Central

Choi, Mi-Kyeong; Heo, Young-Ran; Hyun, Taisun; Kim, Sun Mee; Lyu, Eun-Soon; Oh, Se-Young; Park, Hae-Ryun; Rhee, Moo-Yong; Ro, Hee-Kyong; Song, Mi Kyung

2018-01-01

This study was conducted to develop an equation for estimation of 24-h urinary-sodium excretion that can serve as an alternative to 24-h dietary recall and 24-h urine collection for normotensive Korean adults. In total, data on 640 healthy Korean adults aged 19 to 69 years from 4 regions of the country were collected as a training set. In order to externally validate the equation developed from that training set, 200 subjects were recruited independently as a validation set. Due to heterogeneity by gender, we constructed a gender-specific equation for estimation of 24-h urinary-sodium excretion by using a multivariable linear regression model and assessed the performance of the developed equation in validation set. The best model consisted of age, body weight, dietary behavior (‘eating salty food’, ‘Kimchi consumption’, ‘Korean soup or stew consumption’, ‘soy sauce or red pepper paste consumption’), and smoking status in men, and age, body weight, dietary behavior (‘salt preference’, ‘eating salty food’, ‘checking sodium content for processed foods’, ‘nut consumption’), and smoking status in women, respectively. When this model was tested in the external validation set, the mean bias between the measured and estimated 24-h urinary-sodium excretion from Bland-Altman plots was -1.92 (95% CI: -113, 110) mmol/d for men and -1.51 (95% CI: -90.6, 87.6) mmol/d for women. The cut-points of sodium intake calculated based on the equations were ≥4,000 mg/d for men and ≥3,500 mg/d for women, with 89.8 and 76.6% sensitivity and 29.3 and 64.2% specificity, respectively. In this study, a habitual 24-hour urinary-sodium-excretion-estimation model of normotensive Korean adults based on anthropometric and lifestyle factors was developed and showed feasibility for an asymptomatic population. PMID:29447201

Prostate Cancer Screening In Men Ages 75 And Older Fell By 8 Percentage Points After Task Force Recommendation

PubMed Central

Howard, David H.; Tangka, Florence K.; Guy, Gery P.; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Lipscomb, Joseph

2016-01-01

In 2008 the US Preventive Services Task Force recommended against screening men ages 75 and older for prostate cancer. Using Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey Access to Care files and linked claims, we compared trends in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing rates between men ages 75 and older and men ages 65–74. We estimate that the revised recommendation led to a 7.9-percentage-point decline in annual PSA testing rates over two years among men ages 75 and older. Although 42 percent of men in this age group continue to receive PSA tests, our results highlight the potential of guidelines with negative recommendations to reduce the use of low-value medical care. PMID:23459740

Estimation of a monotone percentile residual life function under random censorship.

PubMed

Franco-Pereira, Alba M; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

2013-01-01

In this paper, we introduce a new estimator of a percentile residual life function with censored data under a monotonicity constraint. Specifically, it is assumed that the percentile residual life is a decreasing function. This assumption is useful when estimating the percentile residual life of units, which degenerate with age. We establish a law of the iterated logarithm for the proposed estimator, and its n-equivalence to the unrestricted estimator. The asymptotic normal distribution of the estimator and its strong approximation to a Gaussian process are also established. We investigate the finite sample performance of the monotone estimator in an extensive simulation study. Finally, data from a clinical trial in primary biliary cirrhosis of the liver are analyzed with the proposed methods. One of the conclusions of our work is that the restricted estimator may be much more efficient than the unrestricted one. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Random Item Generation Is Affected by Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Multani, Namita; Rudzicz, Frank; Wong, Wing Yiu Stephanie; Namasivayam, Aravind Kumar; van Lieshout, Pascal

2016-01-01

Purpose: Random item generation (RIG) involves central executive functioning. Measuring aspects of random sequences can therefore provide a simple method to complement other tools for cognitive assessment. We examine the extent to which RIG relates to specific measures of cognitive function, and whether those measures can be estimated using RIG…

Above-ground weights for tamarack in northeastern Minnesota.

Treesearch

Eugene M. Carpenter

1983-01-01

We used trees from natural uneven-aged stands in northeastern Minnesota to develop prediction equations to estimate total tree, stem, crown, live and dead branch weight. Presented here are specific gravity and moisture content by d.b.h. and height in tree, as well as bark, sapwood, and heartwood ratios.

Estimates of lifetime infertility from three states: the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

PubMed

Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M

2015-07-01

Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Male and female adult residents aged 18-50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non-assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals.

Estimates of Lifetime Infertility from Three States: The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J.; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M.

2016-01-01

Background Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Methods Male and female adult residents aged 18–50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. Results The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non–assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). Conclusion State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals. PMID:26172998

Survival Differences among Native-Born and Foreign-Born Older Adults in the United States

PubMed Central

Dupre, Matthew E.; Gu, Danan; Vaupel, James W.

2012-01-01

Background Studies show that the U.S. foreign-born population has lower mortality than the native-born population before age 65. Until recently, the lack of data prohibited reliable comparisons of U.S. mortality by nativity at older ages. This study provides reliable estimates of U.S. foreign-born and native-born mortality at ages 65 and older at the end of the 20th century. Life expectancies of the U.S. foreign born are compared to other developed nations and the foreign-born contribution to total life expectancy (TLE) in the United States is assessed. Methods Newly available data from Medicare Part B records linked with Social Security Administration files are used to estimate period life tables for nearly all U.S. adults aged 65 and older in 1995. Age-specific survival differences and life expectancies are examined in 1995 by sex, race, and place of birth. Results Foreign-born men and women had lower mortality at almost every age from 65 to 100 compared to native-born men and women. Survival differences by nativity were substantially greater for blacks than whites. Foreign-born blacks had the longest life expectancy of all population groups (18.73 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 18.15–19.30] years at age 65 for men and 22.76 [95% CI, 22.28–23.23] years at age 65 for women). The foreign-born population increased TLE in the United States at older ages, and by international comparison, the U.S. foreign born were among the longest-lived persons in the world. Conclusion Survival estimates based on reliable Medicare data confirm that foreign-born adults have longer life expectancy at older ages than native-born adults in the United States. PMID:22615929

Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

2015-12-01

State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially interpolating 100-year dew point values rather than a more gauge-based approach. Site specific reviews demonstrated that both issues had potential for lowering the PMP estimate significantly by affecting the in-place and transposed moisture maximization value and, in turn, the final controlling storm for a given basin size and PMP estimate.

Differences in stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality by occupation and industry among Japanese working-aged men.

PubMed

Wada, Koji; Eguchi, Hisashi; Prieto-Merino, David

2016-12-01

Occupation- and industry-based risks for stroke and ischemic heart disease may vary among Japanese working-aged men. We examined the differences in mortality rates between stroke and ischemic heart disease by occupation and industry among employed Japanese men aged 25-59 years. In 2010, we obtained occupation- and industry-specific vital statistics data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare dataset. We analyzed data for Japanese men who were aged 25-59 years in 2010, grouped in 5-year age intervals. We estimated the mortality rates of stroke and ischemic heart disease in each age group for occupation and industry categories as defined in the national census. We did not have detailed individual-level variables. We used the number of employees in 2010 as the denominator and the number of events as the numerator, assuming a Poisson distribution. We conducted separate regression models to estimate the incident relative risk for stroke and ischemic heart disease for each category compared with the reference categories "sales" (occupation) and "wholesale and retail" (industry). When compared with the reference groups, we found that occupations and industries with a relatively higher risk of stroke and ischemic heart disease were: service, administrative and managerial, agriculture and fisheries, construction and mining, electricity and gas, transport, and professional and engineering. This suggests there are occupation- and industry-based mortality risk differences of stroke and ischemic heart disease for Japanese working-aged men. These differences in risk might be explained to factors associated with specific occupations or industries, such as lifestyles or work styles, which should be explored in further research. The mortality risk differences of stroke and ischemic heart disease shown in the present study may reflect an excessive risk of Karoshi (death from overwork).

Rapid Communication: Large exploitable genetic variability exists to shorten age at slaughter in cattle.

PubMed

Berry, D P; Cromie, A R; Judge, M M

2017-10-01

Apprehension among consumers is mounting on the efficiency by which cattle convert feedstuffs into human edible protein and energy as well as the consequential effects on the environment. Most (genetic) studies that attempt to address these issues have generally focused on efficiency metrics defined over a certain time period of an animal's life cycle, predominantly the period representing the linear phase of growth. The age at which an animal reaches the carcass specifications for slaughter, however, is also known to vary between breeds; less is known on the extent of the within-breed variability in age at slaughter. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to quantify the phenotypic and genetic variability in the age at which cattle reach a predefined carcass weight and subcutaneous fat cover. A novel trait, labeled here as the deviation in age at slaughter (DAGE), was represented by the unexplained variability from a statistical model, with age at slaughter as the dependent variable and with the fixed effects, among others, of carcass weight and fat score (scale 1 to 15 scored by video image analysis of the carcass at slaughter). Variance components for DAGE were estimated using either a 2-step approach (i.e., the DAGE phenotype derived first and then variance components estimated) or a 1-step approach (i.e., variance components for age at slaughter estimated directly in a mixed model that included the fixed effects of, among others, carcass weight and carcass fat score as well as a random direct additive genetic effect). The raw phenotypic SD in DAGE was 44.2 d. The genetic SD and heritability for DAGE estimated using the 1-step or 2-step models varied from 14.2 to 15.1 d and from 0.23 to 0.26 (SE 0.02), respectively. Assuming the (genetic) variability in the number of days from birth to reaching a desired carcass specifications can be exploited without any associated unfavorable repercussions, considerable potential exists to improve not only the (feed) efficiency of the animal and farm system but also the environmental footprint of the system. The beauty of the approach proposed, relative to strategies that select directly for the feed intake complex and enteric methane emissions, is that data on age at slaughter are generally readily available. Of course, faster gains may potentially be achieved if a dual objective of improving animal efficiency per day coupled with reduced days to slaughter was embarked on.

Estimating mortality, morbidity and disability due to malaria among Africa's non-pregnant population.

PubMed Central

Snow, R. W.; Craig, M.; Deichmann, U.; Marsh, K.

1999-01-01

The contribution of malaria to morbidity and mortality among people in Africa has been a subject of academic interest, political advocacy, and speculation. National statistics for much of sub-Saharan Africa have proved to be an unreliable source of disease-specific morbidity and mortality data. Credible estimates of disease-specific burdens are required for setting global and national priorities for health in order to rationalize the use of limited resources and lobby for financial support. We have taken an empirical approach to defining the limits of Plasmodium falciparum transmission across the continent and interpolated the distributions of projected populations in 1995. By combining a review of the literature on malaria in Africa and models of acquired functional immunity, we have estimated the age-structured rates of the fatal, morbid and disabling sequelae following exposure to malaria infection under different epidemiological conditions. PMID:10516785

Gender variations in waist circumference levels between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australian populations: a systematic review.

PubMed

Adegbija, Odewumi Oluwarotimi; Wang, Zhiqiang

2014-01-01

To compare gender-specific waist circumference (WC) levels of Aboriginal Australians with non-Aboriginal Australians. A systematic search on Medline, PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar databases was conducted to identify papers that reported gender-specific waist circumference (WC) estimates of participants from the age of 15 years and above among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. Means and their 95% confidence intervals of gender differences in WC, height and weight were recorded or calculated where they were not provided. Gender-specific WC, height and weight mean estimates were pooled and the I(2) statistic was used to test heterogeneity among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. Of 17 selected cross-sectional studies, 9 focused on Aboriginal and 8 on non-Aboriginal Australians. Seven studies reported significantly higher WC estimates among indigenous females than males. On the other hand, non-indigenous males had significantly higher WC levels than females. Males had greater height and weight estimates than females in both groups. Although indigenous women were shorter and had lower weight estimates, they had greater WC levels than indigenous men. This is the first systematic review to assess the gender-specific differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. The findings of this review warrant more efforts to understand and reduce the high prevalence of central obesity and related chronic diseases among Aboriginal women. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium.

PubMed

Williams, Katie M; Verhoeven, Virginie J M; Cumberland, Phillippa; Bertelsen, Geir; Wolfram, Christian; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H S; Hofman, Albert; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Vingerling, Johannes R; Kuijpers, Robert W A M; Höhn, René; Mirshahi, Alireza; Khawaja, Anthony P; Luben, Robert N; Erke, Maja Gran; von Hanno, Therese; Mahroo, Omar; Hogg, Ruth; Gieger, Christian; Cougnard-Grégoire, Audrey; Anastasopoulos, Eleftherios; Bron, Alain; Dartigues, Jean-François; Korobelnik, Jean-François; Creuzot-Garcher, Catherine; Topouzis, Fotis; Delcourt, Cécile; Rahi, Jugnoo; Meitinger, Thomas; Fletcher, Astrid; Foster, Paul J; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Klaver, Caroline C W; Hammond, Christopher J

2015-04-01

To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤-0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤-6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4-30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69-2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0-25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7-24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8-52.5) in 25-29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

Impacts of cold weather on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Texas, 1990-2011.

PubMed

Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Li, Xiao; Zhao, Jing; Zhang, Kai

2017-06-01

Cold weather was estimated to account for more than half of weather-related deaths in the U.S. during 2006-2010. Studies have shown that cold-related excessive mortality is especially relevant with decreasing latitude or in regions with mild winter. However, only limited studies have been conducted in the southern U.S. The purpose of our study is to examine impacts of cold weather on mortality in 12 major Texas Metropolitan Areas (MSAs) for the 22-year period, 1990-2011. Our study used a two-stage approach to examine the cold-mortality association. We first applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to 12 major MSAs to estimate cold effects for each area. A random effects meta-analysis was then used to estimate pooled effects. Age-stratified and cause-specific mortalities were modeled separately for each MSA. Most of the MSAs were associated with an increased risk in mortality ranging from 0.1% to 5.0% with a 1 °C decrease in temperature below the cold thresholds. Higher increased mortality risks were generally observed in MSAs with higher average daily mean temperatures and lower latitudes. Pooled effect estimate was 1.58% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) [0.81, 2.37]) increase in all-cause mortality risk with a 1 °C decrease in temperature. Cold wave effects in Texas were also examined, and several MSAs along the Texas Gulf Coast showed statistically significant cold wave-mortality associations. Effects of cold on all-cause mortality were highest among people over 75 years old (1.86%, 95% CI [1.09, 2.63]). Pooled estimates for cause-specific mortality were strongest in myocardial infarction (4.30%, 95% CI [1.18, 7.51]), followed by respiratory diseases (3.17%, 95% CI [0.26, 6.17]) and ischemic heart diseases (2.54%, 95% CI [1.08, 4.02]). In conclusion, cold weather generally increases mortality risk significantly in Texas, and the cold effects vary with MSAs, age groups, and cause-specific deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rock spatial densities on the rims of the Tycho secondary craters in Mare Nectaris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basilevsky, A. T.; Michael, G. G.; Kozlova, N. A.

2018-04-01

The aim of this work is to check whether the technique of estimation of age of small lunar craters based on spatial density of rock boulders on their rims described in Basilevsky et al. (2013, 2015b) and Li et al. (2017) for the craters < 1 km in diameter is applicable to the larger craters. The work presents the rock counts on the rims of four craters having diameters 1000, 1100, 1240 and 1400 m located in Mare Nectaris. These craters are secondaries of the primary crater Tycho, whose age was found to be 109 ± 4 Ma (Stoffler and Ryder, 2001) so this may be taken as the age of the four craters, too. Using the dependence of the rock spatial densities at the crater rims on the crater age for the case of mare craters (Li et al., 2017) our measured rock densities correspond to ages from ∼100 to 130 Ma. These estimates are reasonably close to the given age of the primary crater Tycho. This, in turn, suggests that this technique of crater age estimation is applicable to craters up to ∼1.5 km in diameter. For the four considered craters we also measured their depth/diameter ratios and the maximum angles of the crater inner slopes. For the considered craters it was found that with increasing crater diameter, the depth/diameter ratios and maximum angles of internal slopes increase, but the values of these parameters for specific craters may deviate significantly from the general trends. The deviations probably result from some dissimilarities in the primary crater geometries, that may be due to crater to crater differences in characteristics of impactors (e.g., in their bulk densities) and/or differences in the mechanical properties of the target. It may be possible to find secondaries of crater Tycho in the South pole area and, if so, they may be studied to check the specifics and rates of the rock boulder degradation in the lunar polar environment.

Cost-effectiveness of the Norwegian breast cancer screening program.

PubMed

van Luijt, P A; Heijnsdijk, E A M; de Koning, H J

2017-02-15

The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) has a nation-wide coverage since 2005. All women aged 50-69 years are invited biennially for mammography screening. We evaluated breast cancer mortality reduction and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis, using our microsimulation model, calibrated to most recent data. The microsimulation model allows for the comparison of mortality and costs between a (hypothetical) situation without screening and a situation with screening. Breast cancer incidence in Norway had a steep increase in the early 1990s. We calibrated the model to simulate this increase and included recent costs for screening, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer and travel and productivity loss. We estimate a 16% breast cancer mortality reduction for a cohort of women, invited to screening, followed over their complete lifetime. Cost-effectiveness is estimated at NOK 112,162 per QALY gained, when taking only direct medical costs into account (the cost of the buses, examinations, and invitations). We used a 3.5% annual discount rate. Cost-effectiveness estimates are substantially below the threshold of NOK 1,926,366 as recommended by the WHO guidelines. For the Norwegian population, which has been gradually exposed to screening, breast cancer mortality reduction for women exposed to screening is increasing and is estimated to rise to ∼30% in 2020 for women aged 55-80 years. The NBCSP is a highly cost-effective measure to reduce breast cancer specific mortality. We estimate a breast cancer specific mortality reduction of 16-30%, at the cost of 112,162 NOK per QALY gained. © 2016 UICC.

Elevated Influenza-Related Excess Mortality in South African Elderly Individuals, 1998–2005

PubMed Central

Cohen, Cheryl; Simonsen, Lone; Kang, Jong-Won; Miller, Mark; McAnerney, Jo; Blumberg, Lucille; Schoub, Barry; Madhi, Shabir A.; Viboud, Cécile

2010-01-01

Background. Although essential to guide control measures, published estimates of influenza-related seasonal mortality for low- and middle-income countries are few. We aimed to compare influenza-related mortality among individuals aged ⩾65 years in South Africa and the United States. Methods. We estimated influenza-related excess mortality due to all causes, pneumonia and influenza, and other influenza-associated diagnoses from monthly age-specific mortality data for 1998–2005 using a Serfling regression model. We controlled for between-country differences in population age structure and nondemographic factors (baseline mortality and coding practices) by generating age-standardized estimates and by estimating the percentage excess mortality attributable to influenza. Results. Age-standardized excess mortality rates were higher in South Africa than in the United States: 545 versus 133 deaths per 100,000 population for all causes (P < .001) and 63 vs 21 deaths per 100,000 population for pneumonia and influenza (P=.03). Standardization for nondemographic factors decreased but did not eliminate between-country differences; for example, the mean percentage of winter deaths attributable to influenza was 16% in South Africa and 6% in the United States (P < .001). For all respiratory causes, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes, age-standardized excess death rates were 4—8-fold greater in South Africa than in the United States, and the percentage increase in winter deaths attributable to influenza was 2—4-fold higher. Conclusions. These data suggest that the impact of seasonal influenza on mortality among elderly individuals may be substantially higher in an African setting, compared with in the United States, and highlight the potential for influenza vaccination programs to decrease mortality. PMID:21070141

Development of food photographs for use with children aged 18 months to 16 years: Comparison against weighed food diaries – The Young Person’s Food Atlas (UK)

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Adrian; Barton, Karen L.; Stamp, Elaine; Matthews, John N. S.; Adamson, Ashley J.

2017-01-01

Traditional dietary assessment methods, used in the UK, such as weighed food diaries impose a large participant burden, often resulting in difficulty recruiting representative samples and underreporting of energy intakes. One approach to reducing the burden placed on the participant is to use portion size assessment tools to obtain an estimate of the amount of food consumed, removing the need to weigh all foods. An age range specific food atlas was developed for use in assessing children’s dietary intakes. The foods selected and portion sizes depicted were derived from intakes recorded during the UK National Diet and Nutrition Surveys of children aged 1.5 to 16 years. Estimates of food portion sizes using the food atlas were compared against 4-day weighed intakes along with in-school / nursery observations, by the research team. Interviews were conducted with parents the day after completion of the diary, and for children aged 4 to 16 years, also with the child. Mean estimates of portion size consumed were within 7% of the weight of food recorded in the weighed food diary. The limits of agreement were wide indicating high variability of estimates at the individual level but the precision increased with increasing age. For children 11 years and over, agreement with weighed food diaries, was as good as that of their parents in terms of total weight of food consumed and of intake of energy and key nutrients. The age appropriate food photographs offer an alternative to weighed intakes for dietary assessment with children. PMID:28199319

Refined estimates of local recurrence risks by DCIS score adjusting for clinicopathological features: a combined analysis of ECOG-ACRIN E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort studies.

PubMed

Rakovitch, E; Gray, R; Baehner, F L; Sutradhar, R; Crager, M; Gu, S; Nofech-Mozes, S; Badve, S S; Hanna, W; Hughes, L L; Wood, W C; Davidson, N E; Paszat, L; Shak, S; Sparano, J A; Solin, L J

2018-06-01

Better tools are needed to estimate local recurrence (LR) risk after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for DCIS. The DCIS score (DS) was validated as a predictor of LR in E5194 and Ontario DCIS cohort (ODC) after BCS. We combined data from E5194 and ODC adjusting for clinicopathological factors to provide refined estimates of the 10-year risk of LR after treatment by BCS alone. Data from E5194 and ODC were combined. Patients with positive margins or multifocality were excluded. Identical Cox regression models were fit for each study. Patient-specific meta-analysis was used to calculate precision-weighted estimates of 10-year LR risk by DS, age, tumor size and year of diagnosis. The combined cohort includes 773 patients. The DS and age at diagnosis, tumor size and year of diagnosis provided independent prognostic information on the 10-year LR risk (p ≤ 0.009). Hazard ratios from E5194 and ODC cohorts were similar for the DS (2.48, 1.95 per 50 units), tumor size ≤ 1 versus  > 1-2.5 cm (1.45, 1.47), age ≥ 50 versus < 50 year (0.61, 0.84) and year ≥ 2000 (0.67, 0.49). Utilization of DS combined with tumor size and age at diagnosis predicted more women with very low (≤ 8%) or higher (> 15%) 10-year LR risk after BCS alone compared to utilization of DS alone or clinicopathological factors alone. The combined analysis provides refined estimates of 10-year LR risk after BCS for DCIS. Adding information on tumor size and age at diagnosis to the DS adjusting for year of diagnosis provides improved LR risk estimates to guide treatment decision making.

Operationalizing diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer’s disease and other age-related cognitive impairment—Part 2*

PubMed Central

Seshadri, Sudha; Beiser, Alexa; Au, Rhoda; Wolf, Philip A.; Evans, Denis A.; Wilson, Robert S.; Petersen, Ronald C.; Knopman, David S.; Rocca, Walter A.; Kawas, Claudia H.; Corrada, Maria M.; Plassman, Brenda L.; Langa, Kenneth M.; Chui, Helena C.

2011-01-01

This article focuses on the effects of operational differences in case ascertainment on estimates of prevalence and incidence of cognitive impairment/dementia of the Alzheimer type. Experience and insights are discussed by investigators from the Framingham Heart Study, the East Boston Senior Health Project, the Chicago Health and Aging Project, the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study. There is a general consensus that the single most important factor regulating prevalence estimates of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the severity of cognitive impairment used for case ascertainment. Studies that require a level of cognitive impairment in which persons are unable to provide self-care will have much lower estimates than studies aimed at identifying persons in the earliest stages of AD. There is limited autopsy data from the above-mentioned epidemiologic studies to address accuracy in the diagnosis of etiologic subtype, namely the specification of AD alone or in combination with other types of pathology. However, other community-based cohort studies show that many persons with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) meet pathologic criteria for AD, and a large minority of persons without dementia or MCI also meets pathologic criteria for AD, thereby suggesting that the number of persons who would benefit from an effective secondary prevention intervention is probably higher than the highest published prevalence estimates. Improved accuracy in the clinical diagnosis of AD is anticipated with the addition of molecular and structural biomarkers in the next generation of epidemiologic studies. PMID:21255742

An estimate of the prevalence of epilepsy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic analysis.

PubMed

Paul, Abigail; Adeloye, Davies; George-Carey, Rhiannon; Kolčić, Ivana; Grant, Liz; Chan, Kit Yee

2012-12-01

Epilepsy is a leading serious neurological condition worldwide and has particularly significant physical, economic and social consequences in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of epilepsy prevalence in this region and how this varies by age and sex so as to inform understanding of the disease characteristics as well as the development of infrastructure, services and policies. A parallel systematic analysis of Medline, Embase and Global Health returned 32 studies that satisfied pre-defined quality criteria. Relevant data was extracted, tabulated and analyzed. We modelled the available information and used the UN population figures for Africa to determine the age-specific and overall burden of epilepsy. Active epilepsy was estimated to affect 4.4 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, whilst lifetime epilepsy was estimated to affect 5.4 million. The prevalence of active epilepsy peaks in the 20-29 age group at 11.5/1000 and again in the 40-49 age group at 8.2/1000. The lowest prevalence value of 3.1/1000 is seen in the 60+ age group. This binomial pattern is also seen in both men and women, with the second peak more pronounced in women at 14.6/1000. The high prevalence of epilepsy, especially in young adults, has important consequences for both the workforce and community structures. An estimation of disease burden would be a beneficial outcome of further research, as would research into appropriate methods of improving health care for and tackling discrimination against people with epilepsy.

[Age at Onset as a Marker of Subtypes of Manic-Depressive Illness].

PubMed

Pedraza, Ricardo Sánchez; Losada, Jorge Rodríguez; Jaramillo, Luis Eduardo

2012-09-01

Age at onset of bipolar disorder has been reported as a variable that may be associated with different clinical subtypes. To identify patterns in the distributions of age at onset of bipolar disease and to determine whether age at onset is associated with specific clinical characteristics. Admixture analysis was applied to identify bipolar disorder subtypes according to age at onset. The EMUN scale was used to evaluate clinical characteristics and principal components were estimated to evaluate the relationship between subtypes according to age at onset and symptoms in the acute in the acute phase, using multivariable analyses. According to age at onset, three distributions have been found: early onset: 17.7 years (S.D. 2.4); intermediate-onset: 23.9 years (S.D. 5.6); late onset: 42.8 years (S.D. 12.1). The late-onset group is antisocial, with depressive symptoms, thinking and language disorders, and socially disruptive behaviors. In patients having bipolar disorder, age at onset is antisocial with three groups having specific clinical characteristics. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic: Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Joseph T.; Ho, Andrew; Ma, Edward S. K.; Lee, Cheuk Kwong; Chu, Daniel K. W.; Ho, Po-Lai; Hung, Ivan F. N.; Ho, Lai Ming; Lin, Che Kit; Tsang, Thomas; Lo, Su-Vui; Lau, Yu-Lung; Leung, Gabriel M.

2011-01-01

Background In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity. Methods and Findings We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1–2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–29 y, and 30–59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–19 y, and 20–29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30–59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%–10%. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21990967

Estimating Time to the Common Ancestor for a Beneficial Allele

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel; Coop, Graham; Stephens, Matthew; Novembre, John

2018-01-01

Abstract The haplotypes of a beneficial allele carry information about its history that can shed light on its age and the putative cause for its increase in frequency. Specifically, the signature of an allele’s age is contained in the pattern of variation that mutation and recombination impose on its haplotypic background. We provide a method to exploit this pattern and infer the time to the common ancestor of a positively selected allele following a rapid increase in frequency. We do so using a hidden Markov model which leverages the length distribution of the shared ancestral haplotype, the accumulation of derived mutations on the ancestral background, and the surrounding background haplotype diversity. Using simulations, we demonstrate how the inclusion of information from both mutation and recombination events increases accuracy relative to approaches that only consider a single type of event. We also show the behavior of the estimator in cases where data do not conform to model assumptions, and provide some diagnostics for assessing and improving inference. Using the method, we analyze population-specific patterns in the 1000 Genomes Project data to estimate the timing of adaptation for several variants which show evidence of recent selection and functional relevance to diet, skin pigmentation, and morphology in humans. PMID:29361025

Cholera Epidemics of the Past Offer New Insights Into an Old Enemy

PubMed Central

Phelps, Matthew; Perner, Mads Linnet; Pitzer, Virginia E; Andreasen, Viggo; Jensen, Peter K M; Simonsen, Lone

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Although cholera is considered the quintessential long-cycle waterborne disease, studies have emphasized the existence of short-cycle (food, household) transmission. We investigated singular Danish cholera epidemics (in 1853) to elucidate epidemiological parameters and modes of spread. Methods Using time series data from cities with different water systems, we estimated the intrinsic transmissibility (R0). Accessing cause-specific mortality data, we studied clinical severity and age-specific impact. From physicians’ narratives we established transmission chains and estimated serial intervals. Results Epidemics were seeded by travelers from cholera-affected cities; initial transmission chains involving household members and caretakers ensued. Cholera killed 3.4%–8.9% of the populations, with highest mortality among seniors (16%) and lowest in children (2.7%). Transmissibility (R0) was 1.7–2.6 and the serial interval was estimated at 3.7 days (95% confidence interval, 2.9–4.7 days). The case fatality ratio (CFR) was high (54%–68%); using R0 we computed an adjusted CFR of 4%–5%. Conclusions Short-cycle transmission was likely critical to early secondary transmission in historic Danish towns. The outbreaks resembled the contemporary Haiti outbreak with respect to transmissibility, age patterns, and CFR, suggesting a role for broader hygiene/sanitation interventions to control contemporary outbreaks. PMID:29165706

Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women

PubMed Central

John, Esther M.; Slattery, Martha L.; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hines, Lisa M.; Thompson, Cynthia A.; Gail, Mitchell H.

2017-01-01

Background: There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. Methods: The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. Results: The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women’s Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. Conclusions: The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. PMID:28003316

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

Immunity against influenza A(H1N1) infections is determined by age at the time of initial strain circulation.

PubMed

Delabre, R M; Salez, N; Lapidus, N; Lemaitre, M; Leruez-Ville, M; de Lamballerie, X; Carrat, F

2017-01-01

We explored age-dependent patterns in haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titre to seasonal [1956 A(H1N1), 1977 A(H1N1), 2007 A(H1N1)] and pandemic [A(H1N1)pdm09] influenza strains using serological data collected from an adult French influenza cohort. Subjects were recruited by their general practitioners from 2008 to 2009 and followed until 2010. We explored age-related differences between strain-specific HI titres using 1053 serological samples collected over the study period from 398 unvaccinated subjects. HI titres against the tested seasonal and pandemic strains were determined using the HI technique. Geometric mean titres (GMTs) were estimated using regression models for interval-censored data. Generalized additive mixed models were fit to log-transformed HI estimates to study the relationship between HI titre and age (age at inclusion and/or age at initial strain circulation). GMT against one strain was consistently highest in the birth cohort exposed to that strain during childhood, with peak titres observed in subjects aged 7-8 years at the time of initial strain circulation. Our results complete previous findings on influenza A(H3N2) strains and identify a strain-dependent relationship between HI titre and age at initial strain circulation.

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, Jeff S.

2003-01-01

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Agreement between BMI and body fat obesity definitions in a physically active population.

PubMed

Porto, Luiz Guilherme G; Nogueira, Rosenkranz M; Nogueira, Eugênio C; Molina, Guilherme E; Farioli, Andrea; Junqueira, Luiz Fernando; Kales, Stefanos N

2016-01-01

Body mass index (BMI) is a widely used proxy of body composition (BC). Concerns exist regarding possible BMI misclassification among active populations. We compared the prevalence of obesity as categorized by BMI or by skinfold estimates of body fat percentage (BF%) in a physically active population. 3,822 military firefighters underwent a physical fitness evaluation including cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) by the 12 min-Cooper test, abdominal strength by sit-up test (SUT) and body composition (BC) by BF% (as the reference), as well as BMI. Obesity was defined by BF% > 25% and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2. Agreement was evaluated by sensitivity and specificity of BMI, positive and negative predictive values (PPV/NPV), positive and negative likelihood (LR+/LR-), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and also across age, CRF and SUT subgroups. The prevalence of obesity estimated by BMI (13.3%) was similar to BF% (15.9%). Overall agreement was high (85.8%) and varied in different subgroups (75.3-94.5%). BMI underestimated the prevalence of obesity in all categories with high specificity (≥ 81.2%) and low sensitivity (≤ 67.0). All indices were affected by CRF, age and SUT, with better sensitivity, NPV and LR- in the less fit and older groups; and higher specificity, PPV and LR+ among the fittest and youngest groups. ROC curves showed high area under the curve (≥ 0.77) except for subjects with CRF ≥ 14 METs (= 0.46). Both measures yielded similar obesity prevalences, with high agreement. BMI did not overestimate obesity prevalence. BMI ≥ 30 was highly specific to exclude obesity. Because of systematic under estimation, a lower BMI cut-off point might be considered in this population.

International variation in the prevalence of preclinical colorectal cancer: Implications for predictive values of noninvasive screening tests and potential target populations for screening

PubMed Central

Stock, Christian; Brenner, Hermann

2017-01-01

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is implemented in an increasing number of countries. We aimed to assess international variation in the prevalence of preclinical CRC and the resulting variation in positive and negative predictive values (PPVs, NPVs) of existing and potential CRC screening tests in various countries. Using age‐ and sex‐specific CRC incidence data and transition rates from preclinical to clinical CRC we estimated overall and age‐ and sex‐specific prevalence of preclinical CRC in the target population aged 50–74 years in different parts of the world. These prevalence estimates were used to derive PPVs and NPVs for existing and potential noninvasive screening tests with varying levels of sensitivity and specificity. Within all regions and countries, prevalence strongly increases with age and is higher in men than in women. In addition, major variation was seen between regions and countries, with overall prevalence varying between 1 and 0.1%. As a result, PPVs are expected to strongly vary between ∼10% for men in high incidence countries, such as Australia and Germany, and 1% for women in low incidence countries, whereas NPVs are expected to be consistently well above 99%. Variation in CRC prevalence profoundly affects expected PPVs of screening tests, and PPVs should be carefully considered when decisions on screening tests and strategies are made for specific populations and health care systems. Here, we provide estimates of preclinical CRC and expected PPVs and NPVs of noninvasive screening tests, which may enhance the empirical basis for planning of population‐based CRC screening strategies. PMID:28670788

Relative validity of the Children's Eating Habits Questionnaire-food frequency section among young European children: the IDEFICS Study.

PubMed

Bel-Serrat, Silvia; Mouratidou, Theodora; Pala, Valeria; Huybrechts, Inge; Börnhorst, Claudia; Fernández-Alvira, Juan Miguel; Hadjigeorgiou, Charalampos; Eiben, Gabriele; Hebestreit, Antje; Lissner, Lauren; Molnár, Dénes; Siani, Alfonso; Veidebaum, Toomas; Krogh, Vittorio; Moreno, Luis A

2014-02-01

To compare, specifically by age group, proxy-reported food group estimates obtained from the food frequency section of the Children's Eating Habits questionnaire (CEHQ-FFQ) against the estimates of two non-consecutive 24 h dietary recalls (24-HDR). Estimates of food group intakes assessed via the forty-three-food-group CEHQ-FFQ were compared with those obtained by a computerized 24-HDR. Agreement on frequencies of intakes (equal to the number of portions per recall period) between the two instruments was examined using crude and de-attenuated Pearson's correlation coefficients, cross-classification analyses, weighted kappa statistics (κ w) and Bland-Altman analysis. Kindergartens/schools from eight European countries participating in the IDEFICS (Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS) Study cross-sectional survey (2007-2008). Children aged 2-9 years (n 2508, 50·4% boys). The CEHQ-FFQ provided higher intake estimates for most of the food groups than the 24-HDR. De-attenuated Pearson correlation coefficients ranged from 0·01 (sweetened fruit) to 0·48 (sweetened milk) in children aged 2-<6 years (mean = 0·25) and from 0·01 (milled cereal) to 0·44 (water) in children aged 6-9 years (mean = 0·23). An average of 32% and 31% of food group intakes were assigned to the same quartile in younger and older children, respectively, and classification into extreme opposite quartiles was ≤12% for all food groups in both age groups. Mean κ w was 0·20 for 2-<6-year-olds and 0·17 for 6-9-year-olds. The strength of association estimates assessed by the CEHQ-FFQ and the 24-HDR varied by food group and by age group. Observed level of agreement and CEHQ-FFQ ability to rank children according to intakes of food groups were considered to be low.

Risk of colorectal cancer for carriers of a germline mutation in POLE or POLD1

PubMed Central

Buchanan, Daniel D.; Stewart, Jenna R.; Clendenning, Mark; Rosty, Christophe; Mahmood, Khalid; Pope, Bernard J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Hopper, John L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Macrae, Finlay A.; Winship, Ingrid M.; Win, Aung Ko

2017-01-01

Background Germline mutations in the exonuclease domains of the POLE and POLD1 genes are associated with an as yet unquantified increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods We identified families with POLE or POLD1 variants by searching PubMed for relevant studies prior to October 2016 and by genotyping 669 population-based CRC cases diagnosed <60 years of age from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. We estimated the age-specific cumulative risks (penetrance) using a modified segregation analysis. Results We observed 67 CRCs (mean age at diagnosis=50.2 (standard deviation [SD]=13.8) years) among 364 first- and second- degree relatives from 41 POLE families and 6 CRCs (mean age at diagnosis=39.7 (SD=6.83) years) among 69 relatives from 9 POLD1 families. We estimated risks of CRC to age 70 years (95% confidence interval [CI]) for males and females, respectively, to be: 40%(26%–57%) and 32%(20%–47%) for POLE mutation carriers; and 63%(15%–99%) and 52%(11%–99%) for POLD1 mutation carriers. Conclusion CRC risks for POLE mutation carriers are sufficiently high warranting consideration of annual colonoscopy screening and management guidelines comparable to Lynch syndrome. Refinement of estimates of CRC risk for POLD1 carriers is needed, however, clinical management recommendations could follow those suggested for POLE carriers. PMID:29120461

Measuring sleep: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of wrist actigraphy compared to polysomnography.

PubMed

Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Rueschman, Michael N; Winkelman, J W; Ellenbogen, J M; Solet, J M; Dulin, Hilary; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M

2013-11-01

We validated actigraphy for detecting sleep and wakefulness versus polysomnography (PSG). Actigraphy and polysomnography were simultaneously collected during sleep laboratory admissions. All studies involved 8.5 h time in bed, except for sleep restriction studies. Epochs (30-sec; n = 232,849) were characterized for sensitivity (actigraphy = sleep when PSG = sleep), specificity (actigraphy = wake when PSG = wake), and accuracy (total proportion correct); the amount of wakefulness after sleep onset (WASO) was also assessed. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) model included age, gender, insomnia diagnosis, and daytime/nighttime sleep timing factors. Controlled sleep laboratory conditions. Young and older adults, healthy or chronic primary insomniac (PI) patients, and daytime sleep of 23 night-workers (n = 77, age 35.0 ± 12.5, 30F, mean nights = 3.2). N/A. Overall, sensitivity (0.965) and accuracy (0.863) were high, whereas specificity (0.329) was low; each was only slightly modified by gender, insomnia, day/night sleep timing (magnitude of change < 0.04). Increasing age slightly reduced specificity. Mean WASO/night was 49.1 min by PSG compared to 36.8 min/night by actigraphy (β = 0.81; CI = 0.42, 1.21), unbiased when WASO < 30 min/night, and overestimated when WASO > 30 min/night. This validation quantifies strengths and weaknesses of actigraphy as a tool measuring sleep in clinical and population studies. Overall, the participant-specific accuracy is relatively high, and for most participants, above 80%. We validate this finding across multiple nights and a variety of adults across much of the young to midlife years, in both men and women, in those with and without insomnia, and in 77 participants. We conclude that actigraphy is overall a useful and valid means for estimating total sleep time and wakefulness after sleep onset in field and workplace studies, with some limitations in specificity.

Dementia incidence trend over 1992-2014 in the Netherlands: Analysis of primary care data

PubMed Central

van Bussel, Emma F.; Richard, Edo; Coloma, Preciosa M.; de Waal, Margot W. M.; van den Akker, Marjan; Nielen, Markus M. J.; van Boven, Kees; Busschers, Wim B.; van Gool, Willem A.

2017-01-01

Background Recent reports have suggested declining age-specific incidence rates of dementia in high-income countries over time. Improved education and cardiovascular health in early age have been suggested to be bringing about this effect. The aim of this study was to estimate the age-specific dementia incidence trend in primary care records from a large population in the Netherlands. Methods and findings A dynamic cohort representative of the Dutch population was composed using primary care records from general practice registration networks (GPRNs) across the country. Data regarding dementia incidence were obtained using general-practitioner-recorded diagnosis of dementia within the electronic health records. Age-specific dementia incidence rates were calculated for all persons aged 60 y and over; negative binomial regression analysis was used to estimate the time trend. Nine out of eleven GPRNs provided data on more than 800,000 older people for the years 1992 to 2014, corresponding to over 4 million person-years and 23,186 incident dementia cases. The annual growth in dementia incidence rate was estimated to be 2.1% (95% CI 0.5% to 3.8%), and incidence rates were 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.13) times higher for women compared to men. Despite their relatively low numbers of person-years, the highest age groups contributed most to the increasing trend. There was no significant overall change in incidence rates since the start of a national dementia program in 2003 (−0.025; 95% CI −0.062 to 0.011). Increased awareness of dementia by patients and doctors in more recent years may have influenced dementia diagnosis by general practitioners in electronic health records, and needs to be taken into account when interpreting the data. Conclusions Within the clinical records of a large, representative sample of the Dutch population, we found no evidence for a declining incidence trend of dementia in the Netherlands. This could indicate true stability in incidence rates, or a balance between increased detection and a true reduction. Irrespective of the exact rates and mechanisms underlying these findings, they illustrate that the burden of work for physicians and nurses in general practice associated with newly diagnosed dementia has not been subject to substantial change in the past two decades. Hence, with the ageing of Western societies, we still need to anticipate a dramatic absolute increase in dementia occurrence over the years to come. PMID:28267788

Comparison of annual percentage change in breast cancer incidence rate between Taiwan and the United States-A smoothed Lexis diagram approach.

PubMed

Chien, Li-Hsin; Tseng, Tzu-Jui; Chen, Chung-Hsing; Jiang, Hsin-Fang; Tsai, Fang-Yu; Liu, Tsang-Wu; Hsiung, Chao A; Chang, I-Shou

2017-07-01

Recent studies compared the age effects and birth cohort effects on female invasive breast cancer (FIBC) incidence in Asian populations with those in the US white population. They were based on age-period-cohort model extrapolation and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). It is of interest to examine these results based on cohort-specific annual percentage change in rate (APCR) by age and without age-period-cohort model extrapolation. FIBC data (1991-2010) were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry and the U.S. SEER 9 registries. APCR based on smoothed Lexis diagrams were constructed to study the age, period, and cohort effects on FIBC incidence. The patterns of age-specific rates by birth cohort are similar between Taiwan and the US. Given any age-at-diagnosis group, cohort-specific rates increased overtime in Taiwan but not in the US; cohort-specific APCR by age decreased with birth year in both Taiwan and the US but was always positive and large in Taiwan. Given a diagnosis year, APCR decreased as birth year increased in Taiwan but not in the US. In Taiwan, the proportion of APCR attributable to cohort effect was substantial and that due to case ascertainment was becoming smaller. Although our study shows that incidence rates of FIBC have increased rapidly in Taiwan, thereby confirming previous results, the rate of increase over time is slowing. Continued monitoring of APCR and further investigation of the cause of the APCR decrease in Taiwan are warranted. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reduction in HPV 16/18 prevalence in sexually active young women following the introduction of HPV immunisation in England.

PubMed

Mesher, D; Soldan, K; Howell-Jones, R; Panwar, K; Manyenga, P; Jit, M; Beddows, S; Gill, O N

2013-12-17

Reduction in the prevalence of vaccine type HPV infection in young women is an early indication of the impact of the HPV immunisation programme and a necessary outcome if the subsequent impact on cervical cancer is to be realised. Residual vulva-vaginal swab (VVS) specimens from young women aged 16-24 years undergoing chlamydia screening in community sexual health services (formerly known as family planning clinics), general practice (GP), and youth clinics in 2010-2012 were submitted from 10 laboratories in seven regions around England. These specimens were linked to demographic and sexual behaviour data reported with the chlamydia test, anonymised, and tested for type-specific HPV DNA using a multiplex PCR and Luminex-based genotyping test. Estimated immunisation coverage was calculated and findings were compared to a baseline survey conducted prior to the introduction of HPV immunisation in 2008. A total of 4664 eligible specimens were collected and 4178 had a valid test result. The post-immunisation prevalence of HPV 16/18 infection was lowest in this youngest age group (16-18 years) and increased with age. This increase with age was a reversal of the pattern seen prior to immunisation and was inversely associated with estimates of age-specific immunisation coverage (65% for 16-18 year olds). The prevalence of HPV 16/18 infection in the post-immunisation survey was 6.5% amongst 16-18 year olds, compared to 19.1% in the similar survey conducted prior to the introduction of HPV immunisation. These findings are the first indication that the national HPV immunisation programme is successfully preventing HPV 16/18 infection in sexually active young women in England. The reductions seen suggest, for the estimated coverage, high vaccine effectiveness and some herd-protection benefits. Continued surveillance is needed to determine the effects of immunisation on non-vaccine HPV types. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

PubMed

Prem, Kiesha; Cook, Alex R; Jit, Mark

2017-09-01

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

Estimating Radiation Dose Metrics for Patients Undergoing Tube Current Modulation CT Scans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, Kyle Lorin

Computed tomography (CT) has long been a powerful tool in the diagnosis of disease, identification of tumors and guidance of interventional procedures. With CT examinations comes the concern of radiation exposure and the associated risks. In order to properly understand those risks on a patient-specific level, organ dose must be quantified for each CT scan. Some of the most widely used organ dose estimates are derived from fixed tube current (FTC) scans of a standard sized idealized patient model. However, in current clinical practice, patient size varies from neonates weighing just a few kg to morbidly obese patients weighing over 200 kg, and nearly all CT exams are performed with tube current modulation (TCM), a scanning technique that adjusts scanner output according to changes in patient attenuation. Methods to account for TCM in CT organ dose estimates have been previously demonstrated, but these methods are limited in scope and/or restricted to idealized TCM profiles that are not based on physical observations and not scanner specific (e.g. don't account for tube limits, scanner-specific effects, etc.). The goal of this work was to develop methods to estimate organ doses to patients undergoing CT scans that take into account both the patient size as well as the effects of TCM. This work started with the development and validation of methods to estimate scanner-specific TCM schemes for any voxelized patient model. An approach was developed to generate estimated TCM schemes that match actual TCM schemes that would have been acquired on the scanner for any patient model. Using this approach, TCM schemes were then generated for a variety of body CT protocols for a set of reference voxelized phantoms for which TCM information does not currently exist. These are whole body patient models representing a variety of sizes, ages and genders that have all radiosensitive organs identified. TCM schemes for these models facilitated Monte Carlo-based estimates of fully-, partially- and indirectly-irradiated organ dose from TCM CT exams. By accounting for the effects of patient size in the organ dose estimates, a comprehensive set of patient-specific dose estimates from TCM CT exams was developed. These patient-specific organ dose estimates from TCM CT exams will provide a more complete understanding of the dose impact and risks associated with modern body CT scanning protocols.

Aspartic acid racemization in dentin of the third molar for age estimation of the Chaoshan population in South China.

PubMed

Chen, Shisheng; Lv, Yanyi; Wang, Dian; Yu, Xiaojun

2016-09-01

Aspartic acid racemization in teeth has been increasingly used to estimate chronological age with a considerably high accuracy in forensic practice. The Chaoshan population in South China is relatively isolated in geography, and has specific lifestyle and dietary inhibits. It is still unknown whether this method is suitable for this population. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between chronological age and the d/l aspartic acid ratio in dentin in the third molar tooth of the Chaoshan population. Fifty-eight non-carious third molar teeth (31 mandibles and 27 maxillae), from 58 living individuals of known age (24 males and 34 females), were retrieved. Dentin was extracted from these teeth. The d- and l-aspartic acids in dentins were separated and detected by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Linear regression was performed between the d/l aspartic acid ratio of dentins and chronological age. Results showed that the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.969, and the mean absolute error (MAE) was 2.19 years, its standard deviation (SD) was ±1.53 years, indicating excellent correlation. There was no significant difference in racemization rates of dentin between sexes (P=0.113, F=2.6), or between mandibles and maxillae (P=0.964, F=0.000). Results indicate that the ratio of the d and l forms of aspartic acid of dentins, in the third molar, is closely correlated with chronological age, special lifestyle do no obviously affect the accuracy of the age estimations by aspartic acid racemization of the dentin in the third molar and that aspartic acid racemization in the third molar dentin can be used as an accurate method to estimate chronological age in the Chaoshan population in South China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age validation of quillback rockfish (Sebastes maliger) using bomb radiocarbon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, L A; Andrews, A H; Munk, K

2005-01-05

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) support one of the most economically important fisheries of the Pacific Northwest and it is essential for sustainable management that age estimation procedures be validated for these species. Atmospheric testing of thermonuclear devices during the 1950s and 1960s created a global radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) signal in the ocean environment that scientists have identified as a useful tracer and chronological marker in natural systems. In this study, we first demonstrated that fewer samples are necessary for age validation using the bomb-generated {sup 14}C signal by emphasizing the utility of the time-specific marker created by the initial rise ofmore » bomb-{sup 14}C. Second, the bomb-generated {sup 14}C signal retained in fish otoliths was used to validate the age and age estimation methodology of the quillback rockfish (Sebastes maliger) in the waters of southeast Alaska. Radiocarbon values from the first year's growth of quillback rockfish otoliths were plotted against estimated birth year producing a {sup 14}C time series spanning 1950 to 1985. The initial rise of bomb-{sup 14}C from pre-bomb levels ({approx} -90 {per_thousand}) occurred in 1959 {+-} 1 year and {sup 14}C levels rose relatively rapidly to peak {Delta}{sup 14}C values in 1967 (+105.4 {per_thousand}), with a subsequent declining trend through the end of the record in 1985 (+15.4 {per_thousand}). The agreement between the year of initial rise of {sup 14}C levels from the quillback rockfish record and the chronometer determined for the waters of southeast Alaska from yelloweye rockfish (S. ruberrimus) otoliths validated the ageing methodology for the quillback rockfish. The concordance of the entire quillback rockfish {sup 14}C record with the yelloweye rockfish time series demonstrated the effectiveness of this age validation technique, confirmed the longevity of the quillback rockfish up to a minimum of 43 years, and strongly supports higher age estimates of up to 90 years.« less

Age-Specific Incidence Rates for Self-Reported Uterine Leiomyomata in the Black Women’s Health Study

PubMed Central

Wise, Lauren A.; Palmer, Julie R.; Stewart, Elizabeth A.; Rosenberg, Lynn

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVE Uterine leiomyomata represent a major public health problem for black women in the United States, but limited data are available on age–incidence curves in this high-risk population. We estimated overall and age-specific incidence rates for self-reported uterine leiomyomata in a large cohort of African-American women in the United States. METHODS Data were derived from the Black Women’s Health Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of 59,000 black women from across the United States who were aged 21–69 years at baseline (ie, 1995). From March 1997 through March 2001, we followed up 22,895 premenopausal women with no prior diagnosis of uterine leiomyoma. Poisson regression was used to estimate overall and age-specific incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for self-reported uterine leiomyoma. In a subset of 248 patients who were selected randomly from the total case group, the self-reported diagnosis was verified in 96% of cases who released their medical records. RESULTS During 76,711 woman-years of follow-up, 2,637 incident cases of uterine leiomyomata reported as confirmed by pelvic examination (n = 358), ultrasonography (n = 2,006), or hysterectomy (n = 273) were observed. Incidence rates per 1,000 woman-years were 34.4 (95% CI 33.1–35.7) for all cases combined, 29.7 (95% CI 28.5–30.9) for cases confirmed by ultrasonography or hysterectomy, and 3.6 (95% CI 3.2–4.0) for cases confirmed by hysterectomy. The incidence rate peaked at ages 40–44 years for all cases combined (incidence rate 45.6, 95% CI 42.0–49.5) and for cases confirmed by ultrasonography or hysterectomy (incidence rate 39.8, 95% CI 36.5–43.4), and peaked at ages 45–49 years for cases confirmed by hysterectomy (incidence rate 8.3, 95% CI 6.4–10.7). CONCLUSION Overall incidence rates for self-reported uterine leiomyomata were consistent with other U.S studies in black women and confirmed a high burden of disease in this population. Age-specific incidence rates showed a later peak incidence than that observed among U.S. black women in previous studies. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE II-2 PMID:15738025

Phylogenomic analyses of 539 highly informative loci dates a fully resolved time tree for the major clades of living turtles (Testudines).

PubMed

Shaffer, H Bradley; McCartney-Melstad, Evan; Near, Thomas J; Mount, Genevieve G; Spinks, Phillip Q

2017-10-01

Accurate time-calibrated phylogenies are the centerpiece of many macroevolutionary studies, and the relationship between the size and scale of molecular data sets and the density and accuracy of fossil calibrations is a key element of time tree studies. Here, we develop a target capture array specifically for living turtles, compare its efficiency to an ultraconserved element (UCE) dataset, and present a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny based on 539 nuclear loci sequenced from 26 species representing the breadth of living turtle diversity plus outgroups. Our gene array, based on three fully sequenced turtle genomes, is 2.4 times more variable across turtles than a recently published UCE data set for an identical subset of 13 species, confirming that taxon-specific arrays return more informative data per sequencing effort than UCEs. We used our genomic data to estimate the ages of living turtle clades including a mid-late Triassic origin for crown turtles and a mid-Carboniferous split of turtles from their sister group, Archosauria. By specifically excluding several of the earliest potential crown turtle fossils and limiting the age of fossil calibration points to the unambiguous crown lineage Caribemys oxfordiensis from the Late Jurassic (Oxfordian, 163.5-157.3Ma) we corroborate a relatively ancient age for living turtles. We also provide novel age estimates for five of the ten testudine families containing more than a single species, as well as several intrafamilial clades. Most of the diversity of crown turtles appears to date to the Paleogene, well after the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction 66mya. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cameriere's third molar maturity index in assessing age of majority.

PubMed

Galić, Ivan; Lauc, Tomislav; Brkić, Hrvoje; Vodanović, Marin; Galić, Elizabeta; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye; Brakus, Ivan; Badrov, Jozo; Cameriere, Roberto

2015-07-01

Estimation of chronological age of an individual is one of the main challenges in forensic science. Legally to be able to treat a person as a minor or an adult, it is necessary to determine whether their age of majority (if they are older or younger than 18, in most countries). Methods for estimating age are especially important when an individual in question lacks personal documents or other means of identification. As the dental age differs in various populations, the aim of this study was to evaluate applicability of third molar method for assessing age of majority in Croatia. Cameriere's third molar maturity index (I3M) value of 0.08, measured by the open apices of the teeth, was verified in sample of 1336 panoramic images aged between 14 and 23 years. Chronological age gradually decreased as I3M increased in both genders. Males showed statistically significant advanced maturation when I3M was between 0.0 and 0.3 value. The results indicate that the sensitivity of the test for 0.08 value was 84.3% (95%CI 80.6%, 87.5%) for females and 91.2% (95%CI 88.7%, 93.1) for males. Specificity was 95.4% (95%CI 92.5%, 97.5%) and 91.9% (95%CI 88.8%, 94.3%). The proportions of accurately classified males were 88.8% and that of females 91.5%. The estimated post-test probabilities, of individuals, in other word the probability that a Croatian individual with an I3M<0.08 is 18 years or older is 94.5% for females, and 96.5% for males. With high accuracy, the third molar maturity index should be used as a determinant of the age of majority in Croatia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Living and dying to be counted: What we know about the epidemiology of the global adolescent HIV epidemic.

PubMed

Slogrove, Amy L; Mahy, Mary; Armstrong, Alice; Davies, Mary-Ann

2017-05-16

With increasing survival of vertically HIV-infected children and ongoing new horizontal HIV infections, the population of adolescents (age 10-19 years) living with HIV is increasing. This review aims to describe the epidemiology of the adolescent HIV epidemic and the ability of national monitoring systems to measure outcomes in HIV-infected adolescents through the adolescent transition to adulthood. Differences in global trends between younger (age 10-14 years) and older (age 15-19 years) adolescents in key epidemic indicators are interrogated using 2016 UNAIDS estimates. National population-based survey data in the 15 highest adolescent HIV burden countries are evaluated and examples of national case-based surveillance systems described. Finally, we consider the potential impact of adolescent-specific recommendations in the 2016 WHO Consolidated Guidelines on the Use of Antiretroviral Drugs for Treating and Preventing HIV Infection. UNAIDS estimates indicate the population of adolescents living with HIV is increasing, new HIV infections in older adolescents are declining, and while AIDS-related deaths are beginning to decline in younger adolescents, they are still increasing in older adolescents. National population-based surveys provide valuable estimates of HIV prevalence in older adolescents and recent surveys include data on younger adolescents. Only a few countries have nationwide electronic case-based HIV surveillance, with the ability to provide population-level data on key HIV outcomes in the diagnosed population living with HIV. However, in the 15 highest adolescent HIV burden countries, there are no systems tracking adolescent transition to adulthood or healthcare transition. The strength of the 2016 WHO adolescent-specific recommendations on antiretroviral therapy and provision of HIV services to adolescents was hampered by the lack of evidence specific to this age group. Progress is being made in national surveillance and global monitoring systems to specifically identify trends in adolescents living with HIV. However, HIV programmes responsive to the evolving HIV prevention and treatment needs of adolescents can be facilitated further by: data disaggregation to younger and older adolescents and mode of HIV infection where feasible; implementation of tools to achieve expanded national case-based surveillance; streamlining consent/assent procedures in younger adolescents and consensus on indicators of adolescent healthcare transition and transition to adulthood.

Flexible parametric survival models built on age-specific antimüllerian hormone percentiles are better predictors of menopause.

PubMed

Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Steyerberg, Ewout; Azizi, Fereidoun

2016-06-01

This study aimed to improve existing prediction models for age at menopause. We identified all reproductive aged women with regular menstrual cycles who met our eligibility criteria (n = 1,015) in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study-an ongoing population-based cohort study initiated in 1998. Participants were examined every 3 years and their reproductive histories were recorded. Blood levels of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) were measured at the time of recruitment. Age at menopause was estimated based on serum concentrations of AMH using flexible parametric survival models. The optimum model was selected according to Akaike Information Criteria and the realness of the range of predicted median menopause age. We followed study participants for a median of 9.8 years during which 277 women reached menopause and found that a spline-based proportional odds model including age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate performed well in terms of statistical criteria and provided the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions. The range of predicted median age at menopause for this model was 47.1 to 55.9 years. For those who reached menopause, the median of the absolute mean difference between actual and predicted age at menopause was 1.9 years (interquartile range 2.9). The model including the age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate and using proportional odds as its covariate metrics meets all the statistical criteria for the best model and provides the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions for age at menopause for reproductive-aged women.

Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

2008-01-01

Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Suicide and Ambient Temperature in East Asian Countries: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Yoonhee; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Woo, Jong-Min; Ebi, Kristie L.

2015-01-01

Background A limited number of studies suggest that ambient temperature contributes to suicide; these studies typically focus on a single nation and use temporally and spatially aggregated data. Objective We evaluated the association between ambient temperature and suicide in multiple cities in three East Asian countries. Methods A time-stratified case-crossover method was used to explore the relationship between temperature and suicide, adjusting for potential time-varying confounders and time-invariant individual characteristics. Sex- and age-specific associations of temperature with suicide were estimated, as were interactions between temperature and these variables. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate country-specific pooled associations of temperature with suicide. Results An increase in temperature corresponding to half of the city-specific standard deviation was positively associated with suicide in most cities, although average suicide rates varied substantially. Pooled country-level effect estimates were 7.8% (95% CI: 5.0, 10.8%) for a 2.3°C increase in ambient temperature in Taiwan, 6.8% (95% CI: 5.4, 8.2%) for a 4.7°C increase in Korea, and 4.5% (95% CI: 3.3, 5.7%) for a 4.2°C increase in Japan. The association between temperature and suicide was significant even after adjusting for sunshine duration; the association between sunshine and suicide was not significant. The associations were greater among men than women in 12 of the 15 cities although not significantly so. There was little evidence of a consistent pattern of associations with age. In general, associations were strongest with temperature on the same day or the previous day, with little evidence of associations with temperature over longer lags (up to 5 days). Conclusions We estimated consistent positive associations between suicide and elevated ambient temperature in three East Asian countries, regardless of country, sex, and age. Citation Kim Y, Kim H, Honda Y, Guo YL, Chen BY, Woo JM, Ebi KL. 2016. Suicide and ambient temperature in East Asian countries: a time-stratified case-crossover analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:75–80; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409392 PMID:26069051

Sex-specific suicide mortality in the South African urban context: the role of age, race, and geographical location.

PubMed

Burrows, Stephanie; Vaez, Marjan; Laflamme, Lucie

2007-01-01

This study investigates the importance of sociodemographic and geographical characteristics for suicide risks in the South African urban context. Suicide epidemiology is under-researched in low- and middle-income countries, and such knowledge is important not only for local and national policy, but also for a global understanding of the phenomenon. Sex-specific crude and adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for suicide by age, race, and city are assessed using logistic regression. Cases aged 45+ years, classified as "Coloured" (a category denoting mixed racial origin), and living in Cape Town are used as reference groups. Additionally, the proportion of leading suicide methods within groups was estimated (95% confidence intervals). For males, compared with each reference group, the odds of suicide are significantly higher during middle adulthood, among Asians and particularly among Whites, and among residents of all but one city. Patterns for women differ in magnitude and distribution. Suicide odds are significantly higher in all age groups, particularly 15-24 years, among Whites, and among residents of all other cities, particularly Nelson Mandela or Buffalo City. Males living in Tshwane and Black females have lower odds of suicide. The distribution of methods across age, race, and city groups varies little for males but substantially for females. Age, race, and city play independent roles in sex-specific suicide rates. As for high-income settings, age, race, method and city are important in sex-specific suicide in the urban South African context. Possible underlying mechanisms deserve greater attention for context-relevant preventive efforts.

Medical marijuana laws and suicides by gender and age.

PubMed

Anderson, D Mark; Rees, Daniel I; Sabia, Joseph J

2014-12-01

We estimated the association between legalizing medical marijuana and suicides. We obtained state-level suicide data from the National Vital Statistics System's Mortality Detail Files for 1990-2007. We used regression analysis to examine the association between medical marijuana legalization and suicides per 100 000 population. After adjustment for economic conditions, state policies, and state-specific linear time trends, the association between legalizing medical marijuana and suicides was not statistically significant at the .05 level. However, legalization was associated with a 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -17.1%, -3.7%) and 9.4% (95% CI = -16.1%, -2.4%) reduction in the suicide rate of men aged 20 through 29 years and 30 through 39 years, respectively. Estimates for females were less precise and sensitive to model specification. Suicides among men aged 20 through 39 years fell after medical marijuana legalization compared with those in states that did not legalize. The negative relationship between legalization and suicides among young men is consistent with the hypothesis that marijuana can be used to cope with stressful life events. However, this relationship may be explained by alcohol consumption. The mechanism through which legalizing medical marijuana reduces suicides among young men remains a topic for future study.

Nutritional status, biological maturation and cardiorespiratory fitness in Azorean youth aged 11–15 years

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Sex and individual differences in biological maturity status can influence height, weight, and body fat. Thus, the rigorous control of these variables seems necessary for estimating overweight and obesity in adolescents. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of overweight and obesity and over-fatness in Azorean adolescents and to examine the contributions of chronological age, sex, estimated maturity status, and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) to the risk of overweight and obesity and over-fatness. Methods The sample comprised 1,206 youth aged 11–15 years (626 boys and 580 girls) from the Azores Islands, Portugal. Body mass, stature, and skinfolds (triceps and subscapular) were measured. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated and percent fat was predicted from skinfolds. Age- and sex-specific IOTF cut-off values of the BMI defined nutritional status. Biological maturation was estimated as present height expressed as a percentage of predicted adult (mature) stature. The CRF was analyzed from the 20-m shuttle run test. Results The total prevalence rates of overweight/obesity and over-fatness were of 31% and 27%, respectively. Low CRF (unfit) and being average and advanced in maturity status were positively and significantly associated with overweight/obesity and with risk of being over-fatness in both sexes. Conclusions High prevalence rates of overweight/obesity and over-fatness were identified in Azorean youth, and low CRF and advanced biological maturation were positively associated with overweight/obesity and over-fatness in our sample of adolescents. PMID:23697718

Do Secular Trends in Skeletal Maturity Occur Equally in Both Sexes?

PubMed

Duren, Dana L; Nahhas, Ramzi W; Sherwood, Richard J

2015-08-01

Skeletal maturity assessment provides information on a child's physical development and expectations based on chronological age. Given recently recognized trends for earlier maturity in a variety of systems, most notably puberty, examination of sex-specific secular trends in skeletal maturation is important. For the orthopaedist, recent trends and changes in developmental timing can affect clinical management (eg, treatment timing) if they are currently based on outdated sources. (1) Has the male or female pediatric skeleton experienced a secular trend for earlier maturation over the past 80 years? (2) Do all indicators of maturity trend in the same direction (earlier versus later)? In this retrospective study, a total of 1240 children were examined longitudinally through hand-wrist radiographs for skeletal maturity based on the Fels method. All subjects participate in the Fels Longitudinal Study based in Ohio and were born between 1930 and 1964 for the "early" cohort and between 1965 and 2001 for the "recent" cohort. Sex-specific secular trends were estimated for (1) mean relative skeletal maturity through linear mixed models; and (2) median age of maturation for individual maturity indicators through logistic regression and generalized estimating equations. Overall relative skeletal maturity was significantly advanced in the recent cohort (maximum difference of 5 months at age 13 years for girls, 4 months at age 15 years for boys). For individual maturity indicators, the direction and magnitude of secular trends varied by indicator type and sex. The following statistically significant secular trends were found: (1) earlier maturation of indicators of fusion in both sexes (4 months for girls, 3 months for boys); (2) later maturation of indicators of projection in long bones in both sexes (3 months for girls, 2 months for boys); (3) earlier maturation of indicators of density (4 months) and projection (3 months) in carpals and density in long bones (6 months), for girls only; and (4) later maturation of indicators of long bone shape (3 months) for boys only. A secular trend has occurred in the tempo of maturation of individual components of the pediatric skeleton, and it has occurred in a sex-specific manner. The mosaic nature of this trend, with both earlier and later maturation of individual components of the skeletal age phenotype, calls for greater attention to specific aspects of maturation in addition to the overall skeletal age estimate. The Fels method is currently the most robust method for capturing these components, and future work by our group will deliver an updated, user-friendly version of the Fels assessment tool. Appreciation of sex-specific secular changes in maturation is important for clinical management, including treatment timing, of orthopaedic patients, because children today exhibit a different pattern of maturation than children on whom original maturity assessments were based (including Fels and Greulich-Pyle).

Brain properties predict proximity to symptom onset in sporadic Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Vogel, Jacob W; Vachon-Presseau, Etienne; Pichet Binette, Alexa; Tam, Angela; Orban, Pierre; La Joie, Renaud; Savard, Mélissa; Picard, Cynthia; Poirier, Judes; Bellec, Pierre; Breitner, John C S; Villeneuve, Sylvia

2018-06-01

See Tijms and Visser (doi:10.1093/brain/awy113) for a scientific commentary on this article.Alzheimer's disease is preceded by a lengthy 'preclinical' stage spanning many years, during which subtle brain changes occur in the absence of overt cognitive symptoms. Predicting when the onset of disease symptoms will occur is an unsolved challenge in individuals with sporadic Alzheimer's disease. In individuals with autosomal dominant genetic Alzheimer's disease, the age of symptom onset is similar across generations, allowing the prediction of individual onset times with some accuracy. We extend this concept to persons with a parental history of sporadic Alzheimer's disease to test whether an individual's symptom onset age can be informed by the onset age of their affected parent, and whether this estimated onset age can be predicted using only MRI. Structural and functional MRIs were acquired from 255 ageing cognitively healthy subjects with a parental history of sporadic Alzheimer's disease from the PREVENT-AD cohort. Years to estimated symptom onset was calculated as participant age minus age of parental symptom onset. Grey matter volume was extracted from T1-weighted images and whole-brain resting state functional connectivity was evaluated using degree count. Both modalities were summarized using a 444-region cortical-subcortical atlas. The entire sample was divided into training (n = 138) and testing (n = 68) sets. Within the training set, individuals closer to or beyond their parent's symptom onset demonstrated reduced grey matter volume and altered functional connectivity, specifically in regions known to be vulnerable in Alzheimer's disease. Machine learning was used to identify a weighted set of imaging features trained to predict years to estimated symptom onset. This feature set alone significantly predicted years to estimated symptom onset in the unseen testing data. This model, using only neuroimaging features, significantly outperformed a similar model instead trained with cognitive, genetic, imaging and demographic features used in a traditional clinical setting. We next tested if these brain properties could be generalized to predict time to clinical progression in a subgroup of 26 individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, who eventually converted either to mild cognitive impairment or to Alzheimer's dementia. The feature set trained on years to estimated symptom onset in the PREVENT-AD predicted variance in time to clinical conversion in this separate longitudinal dataset. Adjusting for participant age did not impact any of the results. These findings demonstrate that years to estimated symptom onset or similar measures can be predicted from brain features and may help estimate presymptomatic disease progression in at-risk individuals.

Is perceived motor competence a constraint in children's action planning?

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Caçola, Priscila; Cordova, Alberto

2009-06-01

A form of action representation of developmental interest is reach estimation-the perceptual and cognitive judgment of whether an object is within or out of reach. A common observation among children is overestimation, which, speculatively, has been linked to perceived motor competence (PMC). The authors examined the PMC effect on reachability among 7-, 9-, and 11-year-old children. The authors predicted that with higher PMC, participants would display greater overestimation and that this outcome would show a developmental trend with younger children displaying greater overestimation complementing higher PMC scores. Results revealed no age differences in total error for reach, and all age groups overestimated. Regarding PMC, the 7-year-old childrens' scores were significantly higher than those of their older counterparts. However, relation analyses revealed no support for the idea that PMC was significantly associated with reachability. The findings suggested that a general measure of PMC is not a good predictor of childrens' action planning through reach estimation. Furthermore, if PMC in some form is a psychological constraint, future studies should be tied to context-specific measures of perceived abilities in relation to the specificity of the task.

Genetic Obesity and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation – Causal Estimates from Mendelian Randomization

PubMed Central

Chatterjee, Neal A.; Arking, Dan E.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Heeringa, Jan; Lin, Honghuang; Lubitz, Steven A.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Verweij, Niek; Alonso, Alvaro; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Stricker, Bruno H. C.; Van Der Harst, Pim; Chasman, Daniel I.; Albert, Christine M.

2017-01-01

Background Observational studies have identified an association between body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Inferring causality from observational studies, however, is subject to residual confounding, reverse causation, and bias. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the causal association between BMI and AF using genetic predictors of BMI. Methods We identified 51 646 individuals of European ancestry without AF at baseline from seven prospective population-based cohorts initiated between 1987 and 2002 in the United States, Iceland, and the Netherlands with incident AF ascertained between 1987 and 2012. Cohort-specific mean follow-up ranged 7.4 to 19.2 years, over which period there were a total of 4178 cases of incident AF. We performed a Mendelian randomization with instrumental variable analysis to estimate a cohort-specific causal hazard ratio for the association between BMI and AF. Two genetic instruments for BMI were utilized: FTO genotype (rs1558902) and a BMI gene score comprised of 39 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified by genome-wide association studies to be associated with BMI. Cohort-specific estimates were combined by random-effects, inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. Results In age- and sex-adjusted meta-analysis, both genetic instruments were significantly associated with BMI (FTO: 0.43 [95% CI: 0.32 – 0.54] kg/m2 per A-allele, p<0.001); BMI gene score: 1.05 [95% CI: 0.90-1.20] kg/m2 per 1 unit increase, p<0.001) and incident AF (FTO – HR: 1.07 [1.02-1.11] per A-allele, p=0.004; BMI gene score – HR: 1.11 [1.05-1.18] per 1-unit increase, p<0.001). Age- and sex-adjusted instrumental variable estimates for the causal association between BMI and incident AF were HR 1.15 [1.04-1.26] per kg/m2, p=0.005 (FTO) and 1.11 [1.05-1.17] per kg/m2, p<0.001 (BMI gene score). Both of these estimates were consistent with the meta-analyzed estimate between observed BMI and AF (age- and sex-adjusted HR 1.05 [1.04-1.06] per kg/m2, p<0.001). Multivariable adjustment did not significantly change findings. Conclusions Our data are consistent with a causal relationship between BMI and incident AF. These data support the possibility that public health initiatives targeting primordial prevention of obesity may reduce the incidence of AF. PMID:27974350

The national burden of cerebrovascular diseases in Spain: a population-based study using disability-adjusted life years.

PubMed

Catalá-López, Ferrán; Fernández de Larrea-Baz, Nerea; Morant-Ginestar, Consuelo; Álvarez-Martín, Elena; Díaz-Guzmán, Jaime; Gènova-Maleras, Ricard

2015-04-20

The aim of the present study was to determine the national burden of cerebrovascular diseases in the adult population of Spain. Cross-sectional, descriptive population-based study. We calculated the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) metric using country-specific data from national statistics and epidemiological studies to obtain representative outcomes for the Spanish population. DALYs were divided into years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were estimated for the year 2008 by applying demographic structure by sex and age-groups, cause-specific mortality, morbidity data and new disability weights proposed in the recent Global Burden of Disease study. In the base case, neither YLLs nor YLDs were discounted or age-weighted. Uncertainty around DALYs was tested using sensitivity analyses. In Spain, cerebrovascular diseases generated 418,052 DALYs, comprising 337,000 (80.6%) YLLs and 81,052 (19.4%) YLDs. This accounts for 1,113 DALYs per 100,000 population (men: 1,197 and women: 1,033) and 3,912 per 100,000 in those over the age of 65 years (men: 4,427 and women: 2,033). Depending on the standard life table and choice of social values used for calculation, total DALYs varied by 15.3% and 59.9% below the main estimate. Estimates provided here represent a comprehensive analysis of the burden of cerebrovascular diseases at a national level. Prevention and control programmes aimed at reducing the disease burden merit further priority in Spain. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of body mass index for age to diagnose obesity in Mexican schoolchildren.

PubMed

Mendoza Pablo, Pedro A; Valdés, Jesús; Ortiz-Hernández, Luis

2015-06-01

To compare the accuracy of three BMI-forage references (World Health Organization reference, WHO; the updated International Obesity Task Force reference, IOTF; and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) growth charts) to diagnose obesity in Mexican children. A convenience sample of Mexican schoolchildren (n = 218) was assessed. The gold standard was the percentage of body fat estimated by deuterium dilution technique. Sensitivity and specificity of the classical cutoff point of BMI-for-age to identify obesity (i.e. > 2.00 standard deviation, SD) were estimated. The accuracy (i.e. area under the curve, AUC) of three BMI-for-age references for the diagnosis of obesity was estimated with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves method. The optimal cutoff point (OCP) was determined. The cutoff points to identify obesity had low (WHO reference: 57.6%, CDC: 53.5%) to very low (IOTF reference: 40.4%) sensitivities, but adequate specificities (91.6%, 95.0%, and, 97.5%, respectively). The AUC of the three references were adequate (0.89). For the IOTF reference, the AUC was lower among the older children. The OCP for the CDC reference (1.24 SD) was lower than the OCP for WHO (1.53 SD) and IOTF charts (1.47 SD). The classical cutoff point for obesity has low sensitivity--especially for the IOTF reference. The accuracy of the three references was similar. However, to obtain comparable diagnosis of obesity different cutoff points should be used depending of the reference. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Modeling genetic and environmental factors to increase heritability and ease the identification of candidate genes for birth weight: a twin study.

PubMed

Gielen, M; Lindsey, P J; Derom, C; Smeets, H J M; Souren, N Y; Paulussen, A D C; Derom, R; Nijhuis, J G

2008-01-01

Heritability estimates of birth weight have been inconsistent. Possible explanations are heritability changes during gestational age or the influence of covariates (e.g. chorionicity). The aim of this study was to model birth weights of twins across gestational age and to quantify the genetic and environmental components. We intended to reduce the common environmental variance to increase heritability and thereby the chance of identifying candidate genes influencing the genetic variance of birth weight. Perinatal data were obtained from 4232 live-born twin pairs from the East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey, Belgium. Heritability of birth weights across gestational ages was estimated using a non-linear multivariate Gaussian regression with covariates in the means model and in covariance structure. Maternal, twin-specific, and placental factors were considered as covariates. Heritability of birth weight decreased during gestation from 25 to 42 weeks. However, adjusting for covariates increased the heritability over this time period, with the highest heritability for first-born twins of multipara with separate placentas, who were staying alive (from 52% at 25 weeks to 30% at 42 weeks). Twin-specific factors revealed latent genetic components, whereas placental factors explained common and unique environmental factors. The number of placentas and site of the insertion of the umbilical cord masked the effect of chorionicity. Modeling genetic and environmental factors leads to a better estimate of their role in growth during gestation. For birth weight, mainly environmental factors were explained, resulting in an increase of the heritability and thereby the chance of finding genes influencing birth weight in linkage and association studies.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.

PubMed

D'Ippoliti, Daniela; Michelozzi, Paola; Marino, Claudia; de'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Analitis, Antonis; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Paldy, Anna; Atkinson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Bisanti, Luigi; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Iñiguez, Carmen; Perucci, Carlo A

2010-07-16

The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

Cross-validation of the Beunen-Malina method to predict adult height.

PubMed

Beunen, Gaston P; Malina, Robert M; Freitas, Duarte I; Maia, José A; Claessens, Albrecht L; Gouveia, Elvio R; Lefevre, Johan

2010-08-01

The purpose of this study was to cross-validate the Beunen-Malina method for non-invasive prediction of adult height. Three hundred and eight boys aged 13, 14, 15 and 16 years from the Madeira Growth Study were observed at annual intervals in 1996, 1997 and 1998 and re-measured 7-8 years later. Height, sitting height and the triceps and subscapular skinfolds were measured; skeletal age was assessed using the Tanner-Whitehouse 2 method. Adult height was measured and predicted using the Beunen-Malina method. Maturity groups were classified using relative skeletal age (skeletal age minus chronological age). Pearson correlations, mean differences and standard errors of estimate (SEE) were calculated. Age-specific correlations between predicted and measured adult height vary between 0.70 and 0.85, while age-specific SEE varies between 3.3 and 4.7 cm. The correlations and SEE are similar to those obtained in the development of the original Beunen-Malina method. The Beunen-Malina method is a valid method to predict adult height in adolescent boys and can be used in European populations or populations from European ancestry. Percentage of predicted adult height is a non-invasive valid method to assess biological maturity.

Lifetime attributable risk as an alternative to effective dose to describe the risk of cancer for patients in diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine.

PubMed

Andersson, Martin; Eckerman, Keith; Mattsson, Sören

2017-11-21

The aim of this study is to implement lifetime attributable risk (LAR) predictions of cancer for patients of various age and gender, undergoing diagnostic investigations or treatments in nuclear medicine and to compare the outcome with a population risk estimate using effective dose and the International Commission on Radiological Protection risk coefficients. The radiation induced risk of cancer occurrence (incidence) or death from four nuclear medicine procedures are estimated for both male and female between 0 and 120 years. Estimations of cancer risk are performed using recommended administered activities for two diagnostic ( 18 F-FDG and 99m Tc-phosphonate complex) and two therapeutic ( 131 I-iodide and 223 Ra-dichloride) radiopharmaceuticals to illustrate the use of cancer risk estimations in nuclear medicine. For 18 F-FDG, the cancer incidence for a male of 5, 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.0021, 0.0010, 0.0008 and 0.0003, respectively. For 99m Tc phosphonates complex the corresponding values are 0.000 59, 0.000 34, 0.000 27 and 0.000 13, respectively. For an 131 I-iodide treatment with 3.7 GBq and 1% uptake 24 h after administration, the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.041, 0.029 and 0.012, respectively. For 223 Ra-dichloride with an administration of 21.9 MBq the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years is 0.31, 0.21 and 0.09, respectively. The LAR estimations are more suitable in health care situations involving individual patients or specific groups of patients than the health detriment based on effective dose, which represents a population average. The detriment consideration in effective dose adjusts the cancer incidence for suffering of non-lethal cancers while LAR predicts morbidity (incidence) or mortality (cancer). The advantages of these LARs are that they are gender and age specific, allowing risk estimations for specific patients or subgroups thus better representing individuals in health care than effective dose.

Lifetime attributable risk as an alternative to effective dose to describe the risk of cancer for patients in diagnostic and therapeutic nuclear medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, Martin; Eckerman, Keith; Mattsson, Sören

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to implement lifetime attributable risk (LAR) predictions of cancer for patients of various age and gender, undergoing diagnostic investigations or treatments in nuclear medicine and to compare the outcome with a population risk estimate using effective dose and the International Commission on Radiological Protection risk coefficients. The radiation induced risk of cancer occurrence (incidence) or death from four nuclear medicine procedures are estimated for both male and female between 0 and 120 years. Estimations of cancer risk are performed using recommended administered activities for two diagnostic (18F-FDG and 99mTc-phosphonate complex) and two therapeutic (131I-iodide and 223Ra-dichloride) radiopharmaceuticals to illustrate the use of cancer risk estimations in nuclear medicine. For 18F-FDG, the cancer incidence for a male of 5, 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.0021, 0.0010, 0.0008 and 0.0003, respectively. For 99mTc phosphonates complex the corresponding values are 0.000 59, 0.000 34, 0.000 27 and 0.000 13, respectively. For an 131I-iodide treatment with 3.7 GBq and 1% uptake 24 h after administration, the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years at exposure is 0.041, 0.029 and 0.012, respectively. For 223Ra-dichloride with an administration of 21.9 MBq the cancer incidence for a male of 25, 50 and 75 years is 0.31, 0.21 and 0.09, respectively. The LAR estimations are more suitable in health care situations involving individual patients or specific groups of patients than the health detriment based on effective dose, which represents a population average. The detriment consideration in effective dose adjusts the cancer incidence for suffering of non-lethal cancers while LAR predicts morbidity (incidence) or mortality (cancer). The advantages of these LARs are that they are gender and age specific, allowing risk estimations for specific patients or subgroups thus better representing individuals in health care than effective dose.

Long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with biological aging.

PubMed

Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Nwanaji-Enwerem, Jamaji C; Wolf, Kathrin; Wahl, Simone; Colicino, Elena; Trevisi, Letizia; Kloog, Itai; Just, Allan C; Vokonas, Pantel; Cyrys, Josef; Gieger, Christian; Schwartz, Joel; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Schneider, Alexandra; Peters, Annette

2016-11-15

Long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with age-related diseases. We explored the association between accelerated biological aging and air pollution, a potential mechanism linking air pollution and health. We estimated long-term exposure to PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance/black carbon (BC), and NOx via land-use regression models in individuals from the KORA F4 cohort. Accelerated biological aging was assessed using telomere length (TeloAA) and three epigenetic measures: DNA methylation age acceleration (DNAmAA), extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (correlated with immune cell counts, EEAA), and intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (independent of immune cell counts, IEAA). We also investigated sex-specific associations between air pollution and biological aging, given the published association between sex and aging measures. In KORA an interquartile range (0.97 µg/m3) increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.33 y increase in EEAA (CI = 0.01, 0.64; P = 0.04). BC and NOx (indicators or traffic exposure) were associated with DNAmAA and IEAA in women, while TeloAA was inversely associated with BC in men. We replicated this inverse BC-TeloAA association in the Normative Aging Study, a male cohort based in the USA. A multiple phenotype analysis in KORA F4 combining all aging measures showed that BC and PM10 were broadly associated with biological aging in men. Thus, we conclude that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with biological aging measures, potentially in a sex-specific manner. However, many of the associations were relatively weak and further replication of overall and sex-specific associations is warranted.

Long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with biological aging

PubMed Central

Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Nwanaji-Enwerem, Jamaji C.; Wolf, Kathrin; Wahl, Simone; Colicino, Elena; Trevisi, Letizia; Kloog, Itai; Just, Allan C.; Vokonas, Pantel; Cyrys, Josef; Gieger, Christian; Schwartz, Joel; Baccarelli, Andrea A.; Schneider, Alexandra; Peters, Annette

2016-01-01

Long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with age-related diseases. We explored the association between accelerated biological aging and air pollution, a potential mechanism linking air pollution and health. We estimated long-term exposure to PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance/black carbon (BC), and NOx via land-use regression models in individuals from the KORA F4 cohort. Accelerated biological aging was assessed using telomere length (TeloAA) and three epigenetic measures: DNA methylation age acceleration (DNAmAA), extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (correlated with immune cell counts, EEAA), and intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (independent of immune cell counts, IEAA). We also investigated sex-specific associations between air pollution and biological aging, given the published association between sex and aging measures. In KORA an interquartile range (0.97 μg/m3) increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.33 y increase in EEAA (CI = 0.01, 0.64; P = 0.04). BC and NOx (indicators or traffic exposure) were associated with DNAmAA and IEAA in women, while TeloAA was inversely associated with BC in men. We replicated this inverse BC-TeloAA association in the Normative Aging Study, a male cohort based in the USA. A multiple phenotype analysis in KORA F4 combining all aging measures showed that BC and PM10 were broadly associated with biological aging in men. Thus, we conclude that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with biological aging measures, potentially in a sex-specific manner. However, many of the associations were relatively weak and further replication of overall and sex-specific associations is warranted. PMID:27793020

Modeling Gas and Gas Hydrate Accumulation in Marine Sediments Using a K-Nearest Neighbor Machine-Learning Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, W. T.; Runyan, T. E.; Palmsten, M.; Dale, J.; Crawford, C.

2016-12-01

Natural Gas (primarily methane) and gas hydrate accumulations require certain bio-geochemical, as well as physical conditions, some of which are poorly sampled and/or poorly understood. We exploit recent advances in the prediction of seafloor porosity and heat flux via machine learning techniques (e.g. Random forests and Bayesian networks) to predict the occurrence of gas and subsequently gas hydrate in marine sediments. The prediction (actually guided interpolation) of key parameters we use in this study is a K-nearest neighbor technique. KNN requires only minimal pre-processing of the data and predictors, and requires minimal run-time input so the results are almost entirely data-driven. Specifically we use new estimates of sedimentation rate and sediment type, along with recently derived compaction modeling to estimate profiles of porosity and age. We combined the compaction with seafloor heat flux to estimate temperature with depth and geologic age, which, with estimates of organic carbon, and models of methanogenesis yield limits on the production of methane. Results include geospatial predictions of gas (and gas hydrate) accumulations, with quantitative estimates of uncertainty. The Generic Earth Modeling System (GEMS) we have developed to derive the machine learning estimates is modular and easily updated with new algorithms or data.

National Estimate of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance (PFAS) Release to U.S. Municipal Landfill Leachate.

PubMed

Lang, Johnsie R; Allred, B McKay; Field, Jennifer A; Levis, James W; Barlaz, Morton A

2017-02-21

Landfills are the final stage in the life cycle of many products containing per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and their presence has been reported in landfill leachate. The concentrations of 70 PFASs in 95 samples of leachate were measured in a survey of U.S. landfills of varying climates and waste ages. National release of PFASs was estimated by coupling measured concentrations for the 19 PFASs where more than 50% of samples had quantifiable concentrations, with climate-specific estimates of annual leachate volumes. For 2013, the total volume of leachate generated in the U.S. was estimated to be 61.1 million m 3 , with 79% of this volume coming from landfills in wet climates (>75 cm/yr precipitation) that contain 47% of U.S. solid waste. The mass of measured PFASs from U.S. landfill leachate to wastewater treatment plants was estimated to be between 563 and 638 kg for 2013. In the majority of landfill leachate samples, 5:3 fluorotelomer carboxylic acid (FTCA) was dominant and variations in concentrations with waste age affected total estimated mass. There were six PFASs that demonstrated significantly higher concentrations in leachate from younger waste compared to older waste and six PFAS demonstrated significant variation with climate.

Age- and sex-specific causal effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H M; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S; de Bruijn, Renée F A G; Willems, Sara M; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S; Moreno, Luis A; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W G; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Ikram, M Arfan; Franco, Oscar H; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D; Penninx, Brenda W; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J; Montgomery, Grant W; Whitfield, John B; Martin, Nicholas G; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D; Magnusson, Patrik K; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I; Nilsson, Peter M; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I; Ingelsson, Erik

2015-05-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Drug use among transgender people in Ontario, Canada: Disparities and associations with social exclusion.

PubMed

Scheim, Ayden I; Bauer, Greta R; Shokoohi, Mostafa

2017-09-01

We identified the prevalence and correlates of past-year illicit drug use among transgender people in Ontario, Canada, and disparities with the age-standardized non-transgender population. Data on transgender persons aged 16+ (n=406) were obtained from Trans PULSE, a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey (2009-2010). Overall and sex-specific estimates of past-year drug use (cocaine and amphetamines, based on data availability) in the reference population were obtained from Ontario residents aged 16+ (n=39, 980) in the Canadian Community Health Survey (2009-2010), and standardized to the overall and gender-specific transgender age distributions. For regression analyses with Trans PULSE data, past-year drug use included drug types associated with high risk of physical, psychological, and social harm to the user, and RDS-II weights were applied to frequencies and prevalence ratios (PR) derived from blockwise logistic regression models. An estimated 12.3% (95% CI: 7.7, 17.0) of transgender Ontarians had used at least one of the specified drugs in the past year, with no significant difference by gender identity. Transgender Ontarians were more likely to use both cocaine (standardized prevalence difference; SPD=6.8%; 95% CI=1.6, 10.9) and amphetamines (SPD=SPD=1.3%, 95% CI=0.2, 3.1) as compared to the age-standardized non-transgender population. History of transphobic assault, homelessness or underhousing, and sex work were associated with greater drug use among transgender persons. The prevalence of cocaine and amphetamine use among transgender people in Ontario, Canada was higher than in the age-standardized reference population. Social exclusion predicted within-group variation in drug use among transgender persons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival of white-tailed deer neonates in Minnesota and South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, T.W.; Swanson, C.C.; Jacques, C.N.; Klaver, R.W.; Brinkman, T.J.; Burris, B.M.; Deperno, C.S.; Jenks, J.A.

2011-01-01

Understanding the influence of intrinsic (e.g., age, birth mass, and sex) and habitat factors on survival of neonate white-tailed deer improves understanding of population ecology. During 2002–2004, we captured and radiocollared 78 neonates in eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, of which 16 died before 1 September. Predation accounted for 80% of mortality; the remaining 20% was attributed to starvation. Canids (coyotes [Canis latrans], domestic dogs) accounted for 100% of predation on neonates. We used known fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate survival rates and investigate the influence of intrinsic and habitat variables on survival. We developed 2 a priori model sets, including intrinsic variables (model set 1) and habitat variables (model set 2; forested cover, wetlands, grasslands, and croplands). For model set 1, model {Sage-interval} had the lowest AICc (Akaike's information criterion for small sample size) value, indicating that age at mortality (3-stage age-interval: 0–2 weeks, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks) best explained survival. Model set 2 indicated that habitat variables did not further influence survival in the study area; β-estimates and 95% confidence intervals for habitat variables in competing models encompassed zero; thus, we excluded these models from consideration. Overall survival rate using model {Sage-interval} was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91); 61% of mortalities occurred at 0–2 weeks of age, 26% at 2–8 weeks of age, and 13% at >8 weeks of age. Our results indicate that variables influencing survival may be area specific. Region-specific data are needed to determine influences of intrinsic and habitat variables on neonate survival before wildlife managers can determine which habitat management activities influence neonate populations.

Homicide mortality rates in Canada, 2000-2009: Youth at increased risk.

PubMed

Basham, C Andrew; Snider, Carolyn

2016-10-20

To estimate and compare Canadian homicide mortality rates (HMRs) and trends in HMRs across age groups, with a focus on trends for youth. Data for the period of 2000 to 2009 were collected from Statistics Canada's CANSIM (Canadian Statistical Information Management) Table 102-0540 with the following ICD-10-CA coded external causes of death: X85 to Y09 (assault) and Y87.1 (sequelae of assault). Annual population counts from 2000 to 2009 were obtained from Statistics Canada's CANSIM Table 051-0001. Both death and population counts were organized into five-year age groups. A random effects negative binomial regression analysis was conducted to estimate age group-specific rates, rate ratios, and trends in homicide mortality. There were 9,878 homicide deaths in Canada during the study period. The increase in the overall homicide mortality rate (HMR) of 0.3% per year was not statistically significant (95% CI: -1.1% to +1.8%). Canadians aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years had the highest HMRs during the study period, and experienced statistically significant annual increases in their HMRs of 3% and 4% respectively (p < 0.05). A general, though not statistically significant, decrease in the HMR was observed for all age groups 50+ years. A fixed effects negative binomial regression model showed that the HMR for males was higher than for females over the study period [RRfemale/male = 0.473 (95% CI: 0.361, 0.621)], but no significant difference in sex-specific trends in the HMR was found. An increasing risk of homicide mortality was identified among Canadian youth, ages 15-24, over the 10-year study period. Research that seeks to understand the reasons for the increased homicide risk facing Canada's youth, and public policy responses to reduce this risk, are warranted.

Reduce Manual Curation by Combining Gene Predictions from Multiple Annotation Engines, a Case Study of Start Codon Prediction

PubMed Central

Ederveen, Thomas H. A.; Overmars, Lex; van Hijum, Sacha A. F. T.

2013-01-01

Nowadays, prokaryotic genomes are sequenced faster than the capacity to manually curate gene annotations. Automated genome annotation engines provide users a straight-forward and complete solution for predicting ORF coordinates and function. For many labs, the use of AGEs is therefore essential to decrease the time necessary for annotating a given prokaryotic genome. However, it is not uncommon for AGEs to provide different and sometimes conflicting predictions. Combining multiple AGEs might allow for more accurate predictions. Here we analyzed the ab initio open reading frame (ORF) calling performance of different AGEs based on curated genome annotations of eight strains from different bacterial species with GC% ranging from 35–52%. We present a case study which demonstrates a novel way of comparative genome annotation, using combinations of AGEs in a pre-defined order (or path) to predict ORF start codons. The order of AGE combinations is from high to low specificity, where the specificity is based on the eight genome annotations. For each AGE combination we are able to derive a so-called projected confidence value, which is the average specificity of ORF start codon prediction based on the eight genomes. The projected confidence enables estimating likeliness of a correct prediction for a particular ORF start codon by a particular AGE combination, pinpointing ORFs notoriously difficult to predict start codons. We correctly predict start codons for 90.5±4.8% of the genes in a genome (based on the eight genomes) with an accuracy of 81.1±7.6%. Our consensus-path methodology allows a marked improvement over majority voting (9.7±4.4%) and with an optimal path ORF start prediction sensitivity is gained while maintaining a high specificity. PMID:23675487

Increased fructose intake as a risk factor for dementia.

PubMed

Stephan, B C M; Wells, J C K; Brayne, C; Albanese, E; Siervo, M

2010-08-01

The transition in the world age demographic toward older age is associated with an increased risk of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's disease. Risk profiles for dementia may also be changing. Obesity and type 2 diabetes have increased in prevalence in the last half-century and have been associated with increased dementia risk. Specific changes in nutrition may also represent a direct risk. A diet transition in the United States has occurred in the intake of refined sugar, particularly high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) from a yearly estimate of 8.1 kg/person at the beginning of the XIX century to a current estimate of 65 kg/person. This article considers the association between refined sugar intake, markers of cardiovascular disease risk, and the possible promotion of the development of dementia.

Body composition in Nepalese children using isotope dilution: the production of ethnic-specific calibration equations and an exploration of methodological issues.

PubMed

Devakumar, Delan; Grijalva-Eternod, Carlos S; Roberts, Sebastian; Chaube, Shiva Shankar; Saville, Naomi M; Manandhar, Dharma S; Costello, Anthony; Osrin, David; Wells, Jonathan C K

2015-01-01

Background. Body composition is important as a marker of both current and future health. Bioelectrical impedance (BIA) is a simple and accurate method for estimating body composition, but requires population-specific calibration equations. Objectives. (1) To generate population specific calibration equations to predict lean mass (LM) from BIA in Nepalese children aged 7-9 years. (2) To explore methodological changes that may extend the range and improve accuracy. Methods. BIA measurements were obtained from 102 Nepalese children (52 girls) using the Tanita BC-418. Isotope dilution with deuterium oxide was used to measure total body water and to estimate LM. Prediction equations for estimating LM from BIA data were developed using linear regression, and estimates were compared with those obtained from the Tanita system. We assessed the effects of flexing the arms of children to extend the range of coverage towards lower weights. We also estimated potential error if the number of children included in the study was reduced. Findings. Prediction equations were generated, incorporating height, impedance index, weight and sex as predictors (R (2) 93%). The Tanita system tended to under-estimate LM, with a mean error of 2.2%, but extending up to 25.8%. Flexing the arms to 90° increased the lower weight range, but produced a small error that was not significant when applied to children <16 kg (p 0.42). Reducing the number of children increased the error at the tails of the weight distribution. Conclusions. Population-specific isotope calibration of BIA for Nepalese children has high accuracy. Arm position is important and can be used to extend the range of low weight covered. Smaller samples reduce resource requirements, but leads to large errors at the tails of the weight distribution.

All-cause mortality in adults with and without type 2 diabetes: findings from the national health monitoring in Germany

PubMed Central

Brinks, Ralph; Baumert, Jens; Paprott, Rebecca; Du, Yong; Heidemann, Christin; Scheidt-Nave, Christa

2017-01-01

Objective To estimate age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality among adults with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. Research design and methods The German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998 (GNHIES98) included a mortality follow-up (median follow-up time 12.0 years) of its nationwide sample representative of the population aged 18–79 years. After exclusion of participants with type 1 diabetes, age- and sex-stratified mortality rates (MR) were calculated for 330 GNHIES98 participants with diagnosed T2D (self-reported diagnosis or antidiabetic medication), 245 with undiagnosed T2D (no diagnosed T2D, glycated hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5% (≥48 mmol/mol)), and 5975 without T2D. Mortality rate ratios (MRR) comparing MR of persons with and without T2D were estimated. Age-/sex-standardized MR and MRR were calculated including persons aged 45 years or older. MRR were used to estimate the number of years of life lost (YLL) due to diagnosed diabetes in 2010. Results Over 75 994 person-years, 73 persons with undiagnosed T2D, 103 with diagnosed T2D, and 425 persons without T2D died. MRR were significantly higher in younger age groups, except for analyses limited to women or diagnosed T2D. Age- and sex-standardized MRR (95% CI) among persons aged 45 years or older were 1.96 (1.41 to 2.71) for undiagnosed, 1.68 (1.26 to 2.23) for diagnosed, and 1.82 (1.45 to 2.28) for total (undiagnosed or diagnosed) T2D. Sex-stratified analysis revealed similar age-standardized MRR for undiagnosed (1.56 (0.79 to 3.06)) and diagnosed T2D (1.56 (1.03 to 2.37)) among women, and a higher age-standardized MRR for undiagnosed (2.06 (1.43 to 2.97)) than diagnosed T2D (1.70 (1.10 to 2.63)) among men. YLL due to diagnosed diabetes in Germany in 2010 were 164 600 (35 000 to 279 300) among women and 169 900 (28 300 to 328 300) among men. Conclusions In Germany, age- and sex-standardized all-cause mortality is almost twice as high for adults with T2D as for adults without T2D. The T2D-associated excess risk of mortality appears to be most pronounced in younger adults and among men unaware of their T2D. PMID:29435349

Differences in BMI z-Scores between Offspring of Smoking and Nonsmoking Mothers: A Longitudinal Study of German Children from Birth through 14 Years of Age

PubMed Central

Fenske, Nora; Müller, Manfred J.; Plachta-Danielzik, Sandra; Keil, Thomas; Grabenhenrich, Linus; von Kries, Rüdiger

2014-01-01

Background: Children of mothers who smoked during pregnancy have a lower birth weight but have a higher chance to become overweight during childhood. Objectives: We followed children longitudinally to assess the age when higher body mass index (BMI) z-scores became evident in the children of mothers who smoked during pregnancy, and to evaluate the trajectory of changes until adolescence. Methods: We pooled data from two German cohort studies that included repeated anthropometric measurements until 14 years of age and information on smoking during pregnancy and other risk factors for overweight. We used longitudinal quantile regression to estimate age- and sex-specific associations between maternal smoking and the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th quantiles of the BMI z-score distribution in study participants from birth through 14 years of age, adjusted for potential confounders. We used additive mixed models to estimate associations with mean BMI z-scores. Results: Mean and median (50th quantile) BMI z-scores at birth were smaller in the children of mothers who smoked during pregnancy compared with children of nonsmoking mothers, but BMI z-scores were significantly associated with maternal smoking beginning at the age of 4–5 years, and differences increased over time. For example, the difference in the median BMI z-score between the daughters of smokers versus nonsmokers was 0.12 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.21) at 5 years, and 0.30 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.39) at 14 years of age. For lower BMI z-score quantiles, the association with smoking was more pronounced in girls, whereas in boys the association was more pronounced for higher BMI z-score quantiles. Conclusions: A clear difference in BMI z-score (mean and median) between children of smoking and nonsmoking mothers emerged at 4–5 years of age. The shape and size of age-specific effect estimates for maternal smoking during pregnancy varied by age and sex across the BMI z-score distribution. Citation: Riedel C, Fenske N, Müller MJ, Plachta-Danielzik S, Keil T, Grabenhenrich L, von Kries R. 2014. Differences in BMI z-scores between offspring of smoking and nonsmoking mothers: a longitudinal study of German children from birth through 14 years of age. Environ Health Perspect 122:761–767; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307139 PMID:24695368

Associations between multimorbidity and additional burden for working-age adults with specific forms of musculoskeletal conditions: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Lowe, Dianne B; Taylor, Michael J; Hill, Sophie J

2017-04-04

Multiple health conditions are increasingly a problem for adults with musculoskeletal conditions. However, multimorbidity research has focused primarily on the elderly and those with a limited subset of musculoskeletal disorders. We sought to determine whether associations between multimorbidity and additional burden differ with specific forms of musculoskeletal conditions among working-age adults. Data were sourced from a nationally representative Australian survey. Specific musculoskeletal conditions examined were osteoarthritis; inflammatory arthritis; other forms of arthritis or arthropathies; musculoskeletal conditions not elsewhere specified; gout; back pain; soft tissue disorders; or osteoporosis. Multimorbidity was defined as the additional presence of one or more of the Australian National Health Priority Area conditions. Burden was assessed by self-reported measures of: (i) self-rated health (ii) musculoskeletal-related healthcare and medicines utilisation and, (iii) general healthcare utilisation. Associations between multimorbidity and additional health or healthcare utilisation burden among working-age adults (aged 18 - 64 years of age) with specific musculoskeletal conditions were estimated using logistic regression, adjusting for confounders. Interaction terms were fitted to identify whether there were specific musculoskeletal conditions where multimorbidity was more strongly associated with poorer health or greater healthcare utilisation than in the remaining musculoskeletal group. Among working-age adults, for each of the specified musculoskeletal conditions, multimorbidity was associated with similar, increased likelihood of additional self-rated health burden and certain types of healthcare utilisation. While there were differences in the relationships between multimorbidity and burden for each of the specific musculoskeletal conditions, no one specific musculoskeletal condition appeared to be consistently associated with greater additional health burden in the presence of multimorbidity across the majority of self-rated health burden and healthcare use measures. For working-age people with any musculoskeletal conditions examined here, multimorbidity increases self-reported health and healthcare utilisation burden. As no one musculoskeletal condition appears consistently worse off in the presence of multimorbidity, there is a need to better understand and identify strategies that acknowledge and address the additional burden of concomitant conditions for working-age adults with a range of musculoskeletal conditions.

Is low survival for cancer in Eastern Europe due principally to late stage at diagnosis?

PubMed

Minicozzi, Pamela; Walsh, Paul M; Sánchez, Maria-José; Trama, Annalisa; Innos, Kaire; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Dimitrova, Nadya; Botta, Laura; Johannesen, Tom B; Rossi, Silvia; Sant, Milena

2018-04-01

Cancer survival has persistently been shown to be worse for Eastern European and UK/Ireland patients than those of other European regions. This is often attributed to later stage at diagnosis. However, few stage-specific survival comparisons are available, so it is unclear whether poorer quality treatment or other factors also contribute. For the first time, European cancer registries have provided stage-at-diagnosis data to EUROCARE, enabling population-based stage-specific survival estimates across Europe. In this retrospective observational study, stage at diagnosis (as TNM, condensed TNM, or Extent of Disease) was analysed for patients (≥15 years) from 15 countries grouped into 4 regions (Northern Europe: Norway; Central Europe: Austria, France, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands; Southern Europe: Croatia, Italy, Slovenia, and Spain; and Eastern Europe: Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia), diagnosed with 7 malignant cancers in 2000-2007, and followed to end of 2008. A new variable (reconstructed stage) was created which used all available stage information. Age-standardised 5-year relative survival (RS) by reconstructed stage was estimated and compared between regions. Excess risks of cancer death in the 5 years after diagnosis were also estimated, taking age, sex and stage into account. Low proportions of Eastern European patients were diagnosed with local stage cancers and high proportions with metastatic stage cancers. Stage-specific RS (especially for non-metastatic disease) was generally lower for Eastern European patients. After adjusting for age, sex, and stage, excess risks of death remained higher for Eastern European patients than for European patients in general. Late diagnosis alone does not explain worse cancer survival in Eastern Europe: greater risk of cancer death together with worse stage-specific survival suggest less effective care, probably in part because fewer resources are allocated to health care than in the rest of Europe. We recommend that Eastern European cancer registries and other involved bodies to draw attention to poor cancer survival, so as to stimulate research and inform policies to improve outcomes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Years of life lost due to influenza-attributable mortality in older adults in the Netherlands: a competing risks approach.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; van Wijhe, Maarten; van Asten, Liselotte; van der Hoek, Wim; Wallinga, Jacco

2018-02-06

We estimated the influenza mortality burden in adults 60 years of age and older in the Netherlands in terms of years of life lost, taking into account competing mortality risks. Weekly laboratory surveillance data for influenza and other respiratory pathogens and weekly extreme temperature served as covariates in Poisson regression models fitted to weekly age-group specific mortality data for the period 1999/2000 through 2012/13. Burden for age-groups 60-64 through 85-89 years was computed as years of life lost before age 90 (YLL90) using restricted mean lifetimes survival analysis and accounting for competing risks. Influenza-attributable mortality burden was greatest for persons aged 80-84 years, at 914 YLL90 per 100,000 persons (95% uncertainty interval:867, 963), followed by 85-89 years (787 YLL90/100,000; 95% uncertainty interval:741, 834). Ignoring competing mortality risks in the computation of influenza-attributable YLL90 would lead to substantial over-estimation of burden, from 3.5% for 60-64 years to 82% for persons aged 80-89 years at death. Failure to account for competing mortality risks has implications for accuracy of disease burden estimates, especially among persons aged 80 years and older. As the mortality burden borne by the elderly is notably high, prevention initiatives may benefit from being redesigned to more effectively prevent infection in the oldest age-groups. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Age, Sex, and Dose Effects of Nonbenzodiazepine Hypnotics on Hip Fracture in Nursing Home Residents.

PubMed

Dore, David D; Zullo, Andrew R; Mor, Vincent; Lee, Yoojin; Berry, Sarah D

2018-04-01

The Food and Drug Administration recommends a reduced dose of nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics in women, yet little is known about the age-, sex-, and dose-specific effects of these drugs on risk of hip fracture, especially among nursing home (NH) residents. We estimated the age-, sex-, and dose-specific effects of nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics on the rate of hip fracture among NH residents. Case-crossover study in US NHs. A total of 691 women and 179 men with hip fracture sampled from all US long-stay NH residents. Measures of patient characteristics were obtained from linked Medicare and the Minimum Data Set (2007-2008). The outcome was hospitalization for hip fracture with surgical repair. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from conditional logistic regression models for nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics (vs nonuse) comparing 0 to 29 days before hip fracture (hazard period) with 60 to 89 and 120 to 149 days before hip fracture (control periods). We stratified analyses by age, sex, and dose. The average RR of hip fracture was 1.7 (95% CI 1.5-1.9) for any use. The RR of hip fracture was higher for residents aged ≥90 years vs <70 years (2.2 vs 1.3); however, the CIs overlapped. No differences in the effect of the hypnotic on risk of hip fracture were evident by sex. Point estimates for hip fracture were greater with high-dose versus low-dose hypnotics (RR 1.9 vs 1.6 for any use), but these differences were highly compatible with chance. The rate of hip fracture in NH residents due to use of nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics was greater among older patients than among younger patients and, possibly, with higher doses than with lower doses. When clinicians are prescribing a nonbenzodiazepine hypnotic to any NH resident, doses of these drugs should be kept as low as possible, especially among those with advanced age. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age- and sex-specific reference limits for creatinine, cystatin C and the estimated glomerular filtration rate.

PubMed

Hannemann, Anke; Friedrich, Nele; Dittmann, Kathleen; Spielhagen, Christin; Wallaschofski, Henri; Völzke, Henry; Rettig, Rainer; Endlich, Karlhans; Lendeckel, Uwe; Stracke, Sylvia; Nauck, Matthias

2011-11-14

Early detection of patients with chronic kidney disease is of great importance. This study developed reference limits for serum creatinine and serum cystatin C concentrations and for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in healthy subjects from the general population aged 25-65 years. This study defined a reference population including 985 subjects from the first follow-up of the Study of Health in Pomerania. Serum creatinine was measured with a modified kinetic Jaffé method. Serum cystatin C was measured with a nephelometric assay. The eGFR was calculated from serum creatinine according to the Cockcroft-Gault (eGFR(CG)) and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (eGFR(MDRD)) equation, respectively, as well as from serum cystatin C according to the formula by Larsson (eGFR(Larsson)). Non-parametric quantile regression was used to estimate the reference limits. For serum creatinine and serum cystatin C the 95th percentile and for eGFR(CG), eGFR(MDRD) and eGFR(Larsson) the 5th percentile were selected as reference limits. All data was weighted to reflect the age- and sex-structure of the German population in 2008. The reference limits for serum creatinine (men: 1.11-1.23 mg/dL; women: 0.93-1.00 mg/dL) and serum cystatin C levels (men: 0.92-1.04 mg/L; women: 0.84-1.02 mg/L) increased with advancing age. The reference limits for eGFR decreased with increasing age (eGFR(CG) men: 106.0-64.7 mL/min, women 84.4-57.9 mL/min; eGFR(MDRD) men: 82.5-62.2 mL/min/1.73 m², women 75.0-58.2 mL/min/1.73 m²; eGFR(Larsson) men: 85.5-72.9 mL/min, women 94.5-75.7 mL/min). This study presents age- and sex-specific reference limits for five measures of renal function based on quantile regression models.

Fossils matter: improved estimates of divergence times in Pinus reveal older diversification.

PubMed

Saladin, Bianca; Leslie, Andrew B; Wüest, Rafael O; Litsios, Glenn; Conti, Elena; Salamin, Nicolas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2017-04-04

The taxonomy of pines (genus Pinus) is widely accepted and a robust gene tree based on entire plastome sequences exists. However, there is a large discrepancy in estimated divergence times of major pine clades among existing studies, mainly due to differences in fossil placement and dating methods used. We currently lack a dated molecular phylogeny that makes use of the rich pine fossil record, and this study is the first to estimate the divergence dates of pines based on a large number of fossils (21) evenly distributed across all major clades, in combination with applying both node and tip dating methods. We present a range of molecular phylogenetic trees of Pinus generated within a Bayesian framework. We find the origin of crown Pinus is likely up to 30 Myr older (Early Cretaceous) than inferred in most previous studies (Late Cretaceous) and propose generally older divergence times for major clades within Pinus than previously thought. Our age estimates vary significantly between the different dating approaches, but the results generally agree on older divergence times. We present a revised list of 21 fossils that are suitable to use in dating or comparative analyses of pines. Reliable estimates of divergence times in pines are essential if we are to link diversification processes and functional adaptation of this genus to geological events or to changing climates. In addition to older divergence times in Pinus, our results also indicate that node age estimates in pines depend on dating approaches and the specific fossil sets used, reflecting inherent differences in various dating approaches. The sets of dated phylogenetic trees of pines presented here provide a way to account for uncertainties in age estimations when applying comparative phylogenetic methods.

Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

2018-04-01

Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Integrating Temperature-Dependent Life Table Data into a Matrix Projection Model for Drosophila suzukii Population Estimation

PubMed Central

Wiman, Nik G.; Walton, Vaughn M.; Dalton, Daniel T.; Anfora, Gianfranco; Burrack, Hannah J.; Chiu, Joanna C.; Daane, Kent M.; Grassi, Alberto; Miller, Betsey; Tochen, Samantha; Wang, Xingeng; Ioriatti, Claudio

2014-01-01

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations. PMID:25192013

Estimating the influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza in clinical settings: a hospital-based case-control study with a rapid diagnostic test in Japan.

PubMed

Suzuki, Motoi; Yoshimine, Hiroyuki; Harada, Yoshitaka; Tsuchiya, Naho; Shimada, Ikumi; Ariyoshi, Koya; Inoue, Kenichiro

2013-01-01

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are usually conducted by specialized agencies and require time and resources. The objective of this study was to estimate the influenza VE against medically attended influenza using a test-negative case-control design with rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDT) in a clinical setting. A prospective study was conducted at a community hospital in Nagasaki, western Japan during the 2010/11 influenza season. All outpatients aged 15 years and older with influenza-like illnesses (ILI) who had undergone RIDT were enrolled. A test-negative case-control design was applied to estimate the VEs: the cases were ILI patients with positive RIDT results and the controls were ILI patients with negative RIDT results. Information on patient characteristics, including vaccination histories, was collected using questionnaires and medical records. Between December 2010 and April 2011, 526 ILI patients were tested with RIDT, and 476 were eligible for the analysis. The overall VE estimate against medically attended influenza was 47.6%, after adjusting for the patients' age groups, presence of chronic conditions, month of visit, and smoking and alcohol use. The seasonal influenza vaccine reduced the risk of medically attended influenza by 60.9% for patients less than 50 years of age, but a significant reduction was not observed for patients 50 years of age and older. A sensitivity analysis provided similar figures. The test-negative case-control study using RIDT provided moderate influenza VE consistent with other reports. Utilizing the commonly used RIDT to estimate VE provides rapid assessment of VE; however, it may require validation with more specific endpoint.

Exposure to ultrafine particles and respiratory hospitalisations in five European cities.

PubMed

Samoli, Evangelia; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hennig, Frauke; Kuhlbusch, Thomas A J; Bellander, Tom; Cattani, Giorgio; Cyrys, Josef; Forastiere, Francesco; Jacquemin, Bénédicte; Kulmala, Markku; Lanki, Timo; Loft, Steffen; Massling, Andreas; Tobias, Aurelio; Stafoggia, Massimo

2016-09-01

Epidemiological evidence on the associations between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP), with aerodynamic electrical mobility diameters <100 nm, and health is limited. We gathered data on UFP from five European cities within 2001-2011 to investigate associations between short-term changes in concentrations and respiratory hospitalisations.We applied city-specific Poisson regression models and combined city-specific estimates to obtain pooled estimates. We evaluated the sensitivity of our findings to co-pollutant adjustment and investigated effect modification patterns by period of the year, age at admission and specific diagnoses.Our results for the whole time period do not support an association between UFP and respiratory hospitalisations, although we found suggestive associations among those 0-14 years old. We nevertheless report consistent adverse effect estimates during the warm period of the year, statistically significant after lag 2 when an increase by 10 000 particles per cm(3) was associated with a 4.27% (95% CI 1.68-6.92%) increase in hospitalisations. These effect estimates were robust to particles' mass or gaseous pollutants adjustment.Considering that our findings during the warm period may reflect better exposure assessment and that the main source of non-soluble UFP in urban areas is traffic, our results call for improved regulation of traffic emissions. Copyright ©ERS 2016.

Inequality in mortality by occupation related to economic crisis from 1980 to 2010 among working-age Japanese males.

PubMed

Wada, Koji; Gilmour, Stuart

2016-03-03

The mortality rate for Japanese males aged 30-59 years in managerial and professional spiked in 2000 and remains worse than that of other occupations possibly associated with the economic downturn of the 1990s and the global economic stagnation after 2008. The present study aimed to assess temporal occupation-specific mortality trends from 1980 to 2010 for Japanese males aged 30-59 years for major causes of death. We obtained data from the Occupation-specific Vital Statistics. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates for the four leading causes of death (all cancers, suicide, ischaemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease). We used a generalized estimating equation model to determine specific effects of the economic downturn after 2000. The age-standardized mortality rate for the total working-age population steadily declined up to 2010 in all major causes of death except suicide. Managers had a higher risk of mortality in all leading causes of death compared with before 1995. Mortality rates among unemployed people steadily decreased for all cancers and ischaemic heart disease. Economic downturn may have caused the prolonged increase in suicide mortality. Unemployed people did not experience any change in mortality due to suicide and cerebrovascular disease and saw a decline in cancer and ischemic heart disease mortality, perhaps because the basic properties of Japan's social welfare system were maintained even during economic recession.

Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2014.

PubMed

Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Oh, Chang-Mo; Lee, Duk Hyoung; Lee, Jin Soo

2014-04-01

We studied and reported on cancer incidence and mortality rates as projected for the year 2014 in order to estimate Korea's current cancer burden. Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2011 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2012 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2014 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was employed, except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly. A total of 265,813 new cancer cases and 74,981 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2014. Further, the crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sites combined will likely reach 524.7 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 338.5. Meanwhile, the crude mortality rate of all sites combined and age-standardized rate are projected to be 148.0 and 84.6, respectively. Given the rapid rise in prostate cancer cases, it is anticipated to be the fourth most frequently occurring cancer site in men for the first time. Cancer has become the most prominent public health concern in Korea, and as the population ages, the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase.

Phthalates and thyroid function in preschool age children: Sex specific associations.

PubMed

Morgenstern, Rachelle; Whyatt, Robin M; Insel, Beverly J; Calafat, Antonia M; Liu, Xinhua; Rauh, Virginia A; Herbstman, Julie; Bradwin, Gary; Factor-Litvak, Pam

2017-09-01

Research relating either prenatal or concurrent measures of phthalate exposure to thyroid function in preschool children is inconclusive. In a study of inner-city mothers and their children, metabolites of di-n-butyl phthalate, butylbenzyl phthalate, di-isobutyl phthalate, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, and diethyl phthalate were measured in a spot urine sample collected from women in late pregnancy and from their children at age 3years. We measured children's serum free thyroxine (FT4) and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) at age 3. Linear regression models were used to investigate the associations between phthalate metabolites, measured in maternal urine during late pregnancy and measured in child urine at age 3 and thyroid function measured at age 3. Mean concentrations (ranges) were 1.42ng/dL (1.02-2.24) for FT4, and 2.62uIU/mL (0.61-11.67) for TSH. In the children at age 3, among girls, FT4 decreased with increasing log e mono-n-butyl phthalate [estimated b=-0.06; 95% CI: (-0.09, -0.02)], log e mono-isobutyl phthalate [b=-0.05; 95% CI: (-0.09, -0.01)], log e monoethyl phthalate [b=-0.04; 95% CI: (-0.07, -0.01)], and log e mono(2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate [b=-0.04; 95% CI: (-0.07, -0.003)] and log e mono(2-ethyl-5-oxy-hexyl) phthalate [b=-0.04; 95% CI: (-0.07, -0.004)]. In contrast, among boys, we observed no associations between FT4 and child phthalate metabolites at age 3. On the other hand, in late gestation, FT4 increased with increasing log e mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate [estimated b=0.04; 95% CI: (0.02, 0.06)] and no sex difference was observed. We found no associations between phthalate biomarkers measured in either the child or prenatal samples and TSH at age 3. The data show inverse and sex specific associations between specific phthalate metabolites measured in children at age 3 and thyroid function in preschool children. These results may provide evidence for the hypothesis that reductions in thyroid hormones mediate associations between early life phthalate exposure and child cognitive outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Pregnancy-Related Deaths on Female Life Expectancy in Zambia: Application of Life Table Techniques to Census Data

PubMed Central

Banda, Richard; Sandøy, Ingvild Fossgard; Fylkesnes, Knut; Janssen, Fanny

2015-01-01

Introduction Since 2000, the world has been coalesced around efforts to reduce maternal mortality. However, few studies have estimated the significance of eliminating maternal deaths on female life expectancy. We estimated, based on census data, the potential gains in female life expectancy assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related mortality in Zambia. Methods We used data on all-cause and pregnancy-related deaths of females aged 15–49 reported in the Zambia 2010 census, and evaluated, adjusted and smoothed them using existing and verified techniques. We used associated single decrement life tables, assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths to estimate the potential gains in female life expectancy at birth, at age 15, and over the ages 15–49. We compared these gains with the gains from eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, violence and suicide. Results Complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths would extend life expectancy at birth among Zambian women by 1.35 years and life expectancy at age 15 by 1.65 years. In rural areas, this would be 1.69 years and 2.19 years, respectively, and in urban areas, 0.78 years and 0.85 years. An additional 0.72 years would be spent in the reproductive age group 15–49; 1.00 years in rural areas and 0.35 years in urban areas. Eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, suicide and violence among women aged 15–49 would cumulatively contribute 0.55 years to female life expectancy at birth. Conclusion Eliminating pregnancy-related mortality would extend female life expectancy in Zambia substantially, with more gains among adolescents and females in rural areas. The application of life table techniques to census data proved very valuable, although rigorous evaluation and adjustment of reported deaths and age was necessary to attain plausible estimates. The collection of detailed high quality cause-specific mortality data in future censuses is indispensable. PMID:26513160

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-11-01

National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

PubMed

Fitzmaurice, Christina; Allen, Christine; Barber, Ryan M; Barregard, Lars; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Brenner, Hermann; Dicker, Daniel J; Chimed-Orchir, Odgerel; Dandona, Rakhi; Dandona, Lalit; Fleming, Tom; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Hancock, Jamie; Hay, Roderick J; Hunter-Merrill, Rachel; Huynh, Chantal; Hosgood, H Dean; Johnson, Catherine O; Jonas, Jost B; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kumar, G Anil; Kutz, Michael; Lan, Qing; Larson, Heidi J; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S; Lopez, Alan D; MacIntyre, Michael F; Marczak, Laurie; Marquez, Neal; Mokdad, Ali H; Pinho, Christine; Pourmalek, Farshad; Salomon, Joshua A; Sanabria, Juan Ramon; Sandar, Logan; Sartorius, Benn; Schwartz, Stephen M; Shackelford, Katya A; Shibuya, Kenji; Stanaway, Jeff; Steiner, Caitlyn; Sun, Jiandong; Takahashi, Ken; Vollset, Stein Emil; Vos, Theo; Wagner, Joseph A; Wang, Haidong; Westerman, Ronny; Zeeb, Hajo; Zoeckler, Leo; Abd-Allah, Foad; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Alabed, Samer; Alam, Noore K; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Alem, Girma; Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa; Ali, Raghib; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Amare, Azmeraw; Amoako, Yaw; Artaman, Al; Asayesh, Hamid; Atnafu, Niguse; Awasthi, Ashish; Saleem, Huda Ba; Barac, Aleksandra; Bedi, Neeraj; Bensenor, Isabela; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabé, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem; Binagwaho, Agnes; Boneya, Dube; Campos-Nonato, Ismael; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Chiang, Peggy; Chibueze, Chioma; Chitheer, Abdulaal; Choi, Jee-Young; Cowie, Benjamin; Damtew, Solomon; das Neves, José; Dey, Suhojit; Dharmaratne, Samath; Dhillon, Preet; Ding, Eric; Driscoll, Tim; Ekwueme, Donatus; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Farvid, Maryam; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fernandes, Joao; Fischer, Florian; G/Hiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebru, Alemseged; Gopalani, Sameer; Hailu, Alemayehu; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Husseini, Abdullatif; Huybrechts, Inge; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; James, Spencer; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jee, Sun Ha; Kasaeian, Amir; Kedir, Muktar Sano; Khader, Yousef S; Khang, Young-Ho; Kim, Daniel; Leigh, James; Linn, Shai; Lunevicius, Raimundas; El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Marcenes, Wagner; Markos, Desalegn; Melaku, Yohannes A; Meles, Kidanu G; Mendoza, Walter; Mengiste, Desalegn Tadese; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Miller, Ted R; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Nagel, Gabriele; Nand, Devina; Le Nguyen, Quyen; Nolte, Sandra; Ogbo, Felix A; Oladimeji, Kelechi E; Oren, Eyal; Pa, Mahesh; Park, Eun-Kee; Pereira, David M; Plass, Dietrich; Qorbani, Mostafa; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rana, Saleem M; Søreide, Kjetil; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Shaikh, Masood Ali; She, Jun; Shiue, Ivy; Shore, Hirbo Roba; Shrime, Mark G; So, Samuel; Soneji, Samir; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tadese, Fentaw; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thakur, J S; Tran, Bach Xuan; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; Uzochukwu, Benjamin S Chudi; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Wubshet Terefe, Mamo; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yimam, Hassen Hamid; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew; Murray, Christopher J L; Naghavi, Mohsen

2017-04-01

Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.