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Sample records for age-adjusted international prognostic

  1. Revised international prognostic scoring system for myelodysplastic syndromes.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Peter L; Tuechler, Heinz; Schanz, Julie; Sanz, Guillermo; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Levis, Alessandro; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M; Slovak, Marilyn L; Krieger, Otto; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Magalhaes, Silvia M M; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Sekeres, Mikkael; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef

    2012-09-20

    The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) is an important standard for assessing prognosis of primary untreated adult patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). To refine the IPSS, MDS patient databases from international institutions were coalesced to assemble a much larger combined database (Revised-IPSS [IPSS-R], n = 7012, IPSS, n = 816) for analysis. Multiple statistically weighted clinical features were used to generate a prognostic categorization model. Bone marrow cytogenetics, marrow blast percentage, and cytopenias remained the basis of the new system. Novel components of the current analysis included: 5 rather than 3 cytogenetic prognostic subgroups with specific and new classifications of a number of less common cytogenetic subsets, splitting the low marrow blast percentage value, and depth of cytopenias. This model defined 5 rather than the 4 major prognostic categories that are present in the IPSS. Patient age, performance status, serum ferritin, and lactate dehydrogenase were significant additive features for survival but not for acute myeloid leukemia transformation. This system comprehensively integrated the numerous known clinical features into a method analyzing MDS patient prognosis more precisely than the initial IPSS. As such, this IPSS-R should prove beneficial for predicting the clinical outcomes of untreated MDS patients and aiding design and analysis of clinical trials in this disease. PMID:22740453

  2. An international data set for CMML validates prognostic scoring systems and demonstrates a need for novel prognostication strategies

    PubMed Central

    Padron, E; Garcia-Manero, G; Patnaik, M M; Itzykson, R; Lasho, T; Nazha, A; Rampal, R K; Sanchez, M E; Jabbour, E; Al Ali, N H; Thompson, Z; Colla, S; Fenaux, P; Kantarjian, H M; Killick, S; Sekeres, M A; List, A F; Onida, F; Komrokji, R S; Tefferi, A; Solary, E

    2015-01-01

    Since its reclassification as a distinct disease entity, clinical research efforts have attempted to establish baseline characteristics and prognostic scoring systems for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). Although existing data for baseline characteristics and CMML prognostication have been robustly developed and externally validated, these results have been limited by the small size of single-institution cohorts. We developed an international CMML data set that included 1832 cases across eight centers to establish the frequency of key clinical characteristics. Of note, we found that the majority of CMML patients were classified as World Health Organization CMML-1 and that a 7.5% bone marrow blast cut-point may discriminate prognosis with higher resolution in comparison with the existing 10%. We additionally interrogated existing CMML prognostic models and found that they are all valid and have comparable performance but are vulnerable to upstaging. Using random forest survival analysis for variable discovery, we demonstrated that the prognostic power of clinical variables alone is limited. Last, we confirmed the independent prognostic relevance of ASXL1 gene mutations and identified the novel adverse prognostic impact imparted by CBL mutations. Our data suggest that combinations of clinical and molecular information may be required to improve the accuracy of current CMML prognostication. PMID:26230957

  3. Prognostic relevance of morphological classification models for myelodysplastic syndromes in an era of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System.

    PubMed

    van Spronsen, Margot F; Ossenkoppele, Gert J; Westers, Theresia M; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A

    2016-03-01

    Numerous morphological classification models have been developed to organise the heterogeneous spectrum of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). While the 2008 update of the World Health Organisation (WHO) is the current standard, the publication of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has illustrated the need for supplemental prognostic information. The aim of this study was to investigate whether morphological classification models for MDS - of both the French-American-British (FAB) group and WHO - provide reliable criteria for their classification into homogeneous and clinically relevant categories with prognostic relevance beyond the IPSS-R. We reclassified 238 MDS patients using each of the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 criteria and studied classification categories in terms of clinical, haematological and cytogenetic features. Subsequently, we calculated prognostic scores using the IPSS-R and investigated whether the morphological classification models had significantly prognostic value in patients stratified by the IPSS-R and vice versa. By adopting the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 classifications, MDS patients were organised into homogeneous categories with intrinsic prognostic information. However, whereas the morphological classification models showed no prognostic value beyond the IPSS-R, the IPSS-R had significant prognostic value beyond the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 classifications. Even though morphological classification models for MDS might be clinically relevant from a prognostic point of view, their relevance in terms of risk stratification is evidently limited in light of the IPSS-R. Therefore, we suggest to stop the use of morphological classification models for MDS for risk stratification in routine clinical practice. PMID:26798967

  4. Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge discovery, statistical learning, and more specifically an understanding of the system evolution in time when it undergoes undesirable fault conditions, are critical for an adequate implementation of successful prognostic systems. Prognosis may be understood as the generation of long-term predictions describing the evolution in time of a particular signal of interest or fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem. Predictions are made using a thorough understanding of the underlying processes and factor in the anticipated future usage.

  5. Prognostic value of lymphocyte/monocyte ratio in advanced Hodgkin lymphoma: correlation with International Prognostic Score and tumor associated macrophages.

    PubMed

    Jakovic, Ljubomir R; Mihaljevic, Biljana S; Andjelic, Bosko M; Bogdanovic, Andrija D; Perunicic Jovanovic, Maja D; Babic, Dragan D; Bumbasirevic, Vladimir Z

    2016-08-01

    We studied the prognostic significance of the absolute lymphocyte/monocyte count ratio (ALC/AMC), its contribution to the prognostic value of the International Prognostic Score (IPS), and evaluated if ALC/AMC could serve as a proxy for the frequency of CD68 + tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) in 101 patients with advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve identified best cut-off values of 2.0 for ALC/AMC and 25% for CD68 + TAM. Patients with ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM had an inferior overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS). Spearman's test also uncovered a significant correlation between the ALC/AMC and TAM. Multivariate analysis identified ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM as poor prognostic factors of OS and EFS. After evaluating ALC/AMC and IPS, we stratified patients into three progressively-worse-outcome groups (low-risk: 0 risk factors; intermediate: 1 risk factor; high: 2 risk factors). Our study encourages the combination of ALC/AMC with IPS, for refining risk prediction in advanced HL patients. PMID:26727349

  6. Age-adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates, 1960-2045.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Szafran, Robert F.

    2002-01-01

    A proposed new age-adjusted measure for calculating labor force participation rate eliminates the effect of changes in the age distribution. According to the new criterion, increases in women's labor force participation from 1960-2000 would have been even greater of shifts in the age distribution had not occurred. (Contains 12 references.) (JOW)

  7. Evaluation of the International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) and a Simpler Prognostic Score (IPS-3) for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era.

    PubMed

    Diefenbach, Catherine S; Li, Hailun; Hong, Fangxin; Gordon, Leo I; Fisher, Richard I; Bartlett, Nancy L; Crump, Michael; Gascoyne, Randy D; Wagner, Henry; Stiff, Patrick J; Cheson, Bruce D; Stewart, Douglas A; Kahl, Brad S; Friedberg, Jonathan W; Blum, Kristie A; Habermann, Thomas M; Tuscano, Joseph M; Hoppe, Richard T; Horning, Sandra J; Advani, Ranjana H

    2015-11-01

    The International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) is the most commonly used risk stratification tool for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), however recent studies suggest the IPS-7 is less discriminating due to improved outcomes with contemporary therapy. We evaluated the seven variables for IPS-7 recorded at study entry for 854 patients enrolled on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 2496 trial. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to assess their prognostic ability for freedom from progression (FFP) and overall survival (OS). The IPS-7 remained prognostic however its prognostic range has narrowed. On multivariate analysis, two factors (age, stage) remained significant for FFP and three factors (age, stage, haemoglobin level) for OS. An alternative prognostic index, the IPS-3, was constructed using age, stage and haemoglobin level, which provided four distinct risk groups [FFP (P = 0·0001) and OS (P < 0·0001)]. IPS-3 outperformed the IPS-7 on risk prediction for both FFP and OS by model fit and discrimination criteria. Using reclassification calibration, 18% of IPS-7 low risk patients were re-classified as intermediate risk and 13% of IPS-7 intermediate risk patients as low risk. For patients with advanced HL, the IPS-3 may provide a simpler and more accurate framework for risk assessment in the modern era. Validation of these findings in other large data sets is planned. PMID:26343802

  8. Evaluation of the International Prognostic Score (IPS-7) and a Simpler Prognostic Score (IPS-3) for Advanced Hodgkin Lymphoma in the Modern Era

    PubMed Central

    Diefenbach, C. S.; Li, H.; Hong, F.; Gordon, L. I.; Fisher, R. I.; Bartlett, N. L.; Crump, M.; Gascoyne, R. D.; Wagner, H.; Stiff, P. J.; Cheson, B. D.; Stewart, D. A.; Kahl, B. S.; Friedberg, J. W.; Blum, K. A.; Habermann, T. M.; Tuscano, J. M.; Hoppe, R. T.; Horning, S. J.; Advani, R. H.

    2016-01-01

    The international prognostic score (IPS-7) is the most commonly used risk stratification tool for advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), however recent studies suggest the IPS-7 is less discriminating due to improved outcomes with contemporary therapy. We evaluated the seven variables for IPS-7 recorded at study entry for 854 patients enrolled on E2496. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to assess their prognostic ability for freedom from progression (FFP) and overall survival (OS). The IPS-7 remained prognostic however its prognostic range has narrowed. On multivariate analysis 2 factors (age, stage) remained significant for FFP and 3 factors (age, stage, hemoglobin) for OS. An alternative prognostic index, the IPS-3, was constructed using age, stage, and hemoglobin, which provided 4 distinct risk groups [FFP (p=0.0001) and OS (p<0.0001)]. IPS-3 outperformed the IPS-7 on risk prediction for both FFP and OS by model fit and discrimination criteria. Using reclassification calibration 18% of IPS-7 low risk patients were re-classified as intermediate risk and 13% of IPS-7 intermediate risk patients as low risk. For patients with advanced HL, the IPS-3 may provide a simpler and more accurate framework for risk assessment in the modern era. Validation of these findings in other large data sets is planned. PMID:26343802

  9. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of metabolic response at interim positron emission tomography scan combined with International Prognostic Index is highly predictive of outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Nols, Nathalie; Mounier, Nicolas; Bouazza, Salima; Lhommel, Renaud; Costantini, Sabrina; Vander Borght, Thierry; Vekemans, Marie-Christiane; Sonet, Anne; Bosly, André; Michaux, Lucienne; André, Marc; Van Den Neste, Eric

    2014-04-01

    The prognostic value of interim (18)fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (i-PET) was investigated in 73 patients (median age 60 years) with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). i-PET was analyzed using the Deauville score (DS) and change in maximum standardized uptake value (ΔSUV(max)). Patients with a DS of 1-3 demonstrated a significantly (p < 0.0001) better outcome (median follow-up 2.4 years) than patients with a score of 4 or 5 in terms of event-free survival (EFS) (79% vs. 36%), progression-free survival (PFS) (84% vs. 47%) and overall survival (OS) (91% vs. 51%). EFS (73% vs. 42%), PFS (78% vs. 50%) and OS (88% vs. 56%) were also significantly (p = 0.023) different between patients with ΔSUV(max) > 66% or ≤ 66%. Patients (n = 33) combining a favorable age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (IPI) (0 or 1) and a negative i-PET either by DS or ΔSUV(max) criteria showed a particularly good outcome (EFS: 85%, PFS: 88%, OS: 94%). Overall, i-PET was highly and independently predictive of any outcome, and its negative predictive value was improved by combination with IPI. PMID:23927393

  10. Validation of WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) for myelodysplastic syndromes and comparison with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). A study of the International Working Group for Prognosis in Myelodysplasia (IWG-PM).

    PubMed

    Della Porta, M G; Tuechler, H; Malcovati, L; Schanz, J; Sanz, G; Garcia-Manero, G; Solé, F; Bennett, J M; Bowen, D; Fenaux, P; Dreyfus, F; Kantarjian, H; Kuendgen, A; Levis, A; Cermak, J; Fonatsch, C; Le Beau, M M; Slovak, M L; Krieger, O; Luebbert, M; Maciejewski, J; Magalhaes, S M M; Miyazaki, Y; Pfeilstöcker, M; Sekeres, M A; Sperr, W R; Stauder, R; Tauro, S; Valent, P; Vallespi, T; van de Loosdrecht, A A; Germing, U; Haase, D; Greenberg, P L; Cazzola, M

    2015-07-01

    A risk-adapted treatment strategy is mandatory for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). We refined the World Health Organization (WHO)-classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) by determining the impact of the newer clinical and cytogenetic features, and we compared its prognostic power to that of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). A population of 5326 untreated MDS was considered. We analyzed single WPSS parameters and confirmed that the WHO classification and severe anemia provide important prognostic information in MDS. A strong correlation was found between the WPSS including the new cytogenetic risk stratification and WPSS adopting original criteria. We then compared WPSS with the IPSS-R prognostic system. A highly significant correlation was found between the WPSS and IPSS-R risk classifications. Discrepancies did occur among lower-risk patients in whom the number of dysplastic hematopoietic lineages as assessed by morphology did not reflect the severity of peripheral blood cytopenias and/or increased marrow blast count. Moreover, severe anemia has higher prognostic weight in the WPSS versus IPSS-R model. Overall, both systems well represent the prognostic risk of MDS patients defined by WHO morphologic criteria. This study provides relevant in formation for the implementation of risk-adapted strategies in MDS. PMID:25721895

  11. The Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System for myelofibrosis predicts outcomes after hematopoietic cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Scott, Bart L; Gooley, Ted A; Sorror, Mohamed L; Rezvani, Andrew R; Linenberger, Michael L; Grim, Jonathan; Sandmaier, Brenda M; Myerson, David; Chauncey, Thomas R; Storb, Rainer; Buxhofer-Ausch, Veronika; Radich, Jerald P; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Deeg, H Joachim

    2012-03-15

    Studies by the International Working Group showed that the prognosis of myelofibrosis patients is predicted by the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS) risk categorization, which includes patient age, constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin, leukocyte count, and circulating blasts. We evaluated the prognostic usefulness of the DIPSS in 170 patients with myelofibrosis, 12 to 78 years of age (median, 51.5 years of age), who received hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) between 1990 and 2009 from related (n = 86) or unrelated donors (n = 84). By DIPSS, 21 patients had low-risk disease, 48 had intermediate-1, 50 had intermediate-2, and 51 had high-risk disease. Five-year incidence of relapse, relapse-free survival, overall survival, and nonrelapse mortality for all patients were 10%, 57%, 57%, and 34%, respectively. Among patients with DIPSS high-risk disease, the hazard ratio for post-HCT mortality was 4.11 (95% CI, 1.44-11.78; P = .008), and for nonrelapse mortality was 3.41 (95% CI, 1.15-10.09; P = .03) compared with low-risk patients. After a median follow-up of 5.9 years, the median survivals have not been reached for DIPSS risk groups low and intermediate-1, and were 7 and 2.5 years for intermediate-2 and high-risk patients, respectively. Thus, HCT was curative for a large proportion of patients with myelofibrosis, and post-HCT success was dependent on pre-HCT DIPSS classification. PMID:22234678

  12. Enhanced international prognostic index in Japanese patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Nakaya, Aya; Fujita, Shinya; Satake, Atsushi; Nakanishi, Takahisa; Azuma, Yoshiko; Tsubokura, Yukie; Hotta, Masaaki; Yoshimura, Hideaki; Ishii, Kazuyoshi; Ito, Tomoki; Nomura, Shosaku

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) International Prognostic Index (IPI), we analyzed 284 patients treated with the combination of rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) in our institution in Japan. Their 5-year overall survival (OS) by risk level was 80.7%, 74.8%, 55.4% and 67.5% (P=0.005); and their 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 76.8%, 78.6%, 63.7% and 58.3% (P=0.0722). The NCCN-IPI is a simple scale that uses conventional clinical factors, but did not reflect survival in our cohort. The NCCN-IPI may require further evaluation for different regions and ethnicities before adopting it for routine clinical use. PMID:27489766

  13. Complex karyotype in mantle cell lymphoma is a strong prognostic factor for the time to treatment and overall survival, independent of the MCL international prognostic index.

    PubMed

    Sarkozy, Clémentine; Terré, Christine; Jardin, Fabrice; Radford, Isabelle; Roche-Lestienne, Catherine; Penther, Dominique; Bastard, Christian; Rigaudeau, Sophie; Pilorge, Sylvain; Morschhauser, Franck; Bouscary, Didier; Delarue, Richard; Farhat, Hassan; Rousselot, Philippe; Hermine, Olivier; Tilly, Hervé; Chevret, Sylvie; Castaigne, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is usually an aggressive disease. However, a few patients do have an "indolent" evolution (iMCL) defined by a long survival time without intensive therapy. Many studies highlight the prognostic role of additional genetic abnormalities, but these abnormalities are not routinely tested for and do not yet influence the treatment decision. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these additional abnormalities detected by conventional cytogenetic testing, as well as their relationships with the clinical characteristics and their value in identifying iMCL. All consecutive MCL cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2011 at four institutions were retrospectively selected on the basis of an informative karyotype with a t(11;14) translocation at the time of diagnosis. A total of 125 patients were included and followed for an actual median time of 35 months. The median overall survival (OS) and survival without treatment (TFS) were 73.7 and 1.3 months, respectively. In multivariable Cox models, a high mantle cell lymphoma international prognostic index score, a complex karyotype, and blastoid morphology were independently associated with a shortened OS. Spleen enlargement, nodal presentation, extra-hematological involvement, and complex karyotypes were associated with shorter TFS. A score based on these factors allowed for the identification of "indolent" patients (median TFS 107 months) from other patients (median TFS: 1 month). In conclusion, in this multicentric cohort of MCL patients, a complex karyotype was associated with a shorter survival time and allowed for the identification of iMCL at the time of diagnosis. PMID:24249260

  14. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grading system for renal cell carcinoma and other prognostic parameters.

    PubMed

    Delahunt, Brett; Cheville, John C; Martignoni, Guido; Humphrey, Peter A; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; McKenney, Jesse; Egevad, Lars; Algaba, Ferran; Moch, Holger; Grignon, David J; Montironi, Rodolfo; Srigley, John R

    2013-10-01

    The International Society of Urological Pathology 2012 Consensus Conference made recommendations regarding classification, prognostic factors, staging, and immunohistochemical and molecular assessment of adult renal tumors. Issues relating to prognostic factors were coordinated by a workgroup who identified tumor morphotype, sarcomatoid/rhabdoid differentiation, tumor necrosis, grading, and microvascular invasion as potential prognostic parameters. There was consensus that the main morphotypes of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) were of prognostic significance, that subtyping of papillary RCC (types 1 and 2) provided additional prognostic information, and that clear cell tubulopapillary RCC was associated with a more favorable outcome. For tumors showing sarcomatoid or rhabdoid differentiation, there was consensus that a minimum proportion of tumor was not required for diagnostic purposes. It was also agreed upon that the underlying subtype of carcinoma should be reported. For sarcomatoid carcinoma, it was further agreed upon that if the underlying carcinoma subtype was absent the tumor should be classified as a grade 4 unclassified carcinoma with a sarcomatoid component. Tumor necrosis was considered to have prognostic significance, with assessment based on macroscopic and microscopic examination of the tumor. It was recommended that for clear cell RCC the amount of necrosis should be quantified. There was consensus that nucleolar prominence defined grades 1 to 3 of clear cell and papillary RCCs, whereas extreme nuclear pleomorphism or sarcomatoid and/or rhabdoid differentiation defined grade 4 tumors. It was agreed upon that chromophobe RCC should not be graded. There was consensus that microvascular invasion should not be included as a staging criterion for RCC. PMID:24025520

  15. Prognostic indicators in primary biliary cirrhosis: significance of revised IAHG (International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group) score

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Ho Eun; Jeong, Soung Won; Kim, Jin Nyoung; Jang, Hee Yoon; Cho, Yun Ju; Woo, Sung Ae; Lee, Sae Hwan; Kim, Sang Gyune; Cha, Sang-Woo; Kim, Young Seok; Cho, Young Deok; Kim, Hong Soo; Kim, Boo Sung

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aims Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a slowly progressing autoimmune disease of the liver that is characterized by portal inflammation and immune-mediated destruction of the intrahepatic bile ducts. Serum total bilirubin is one of the various prognostic factors that have been proposed. A recent study found that PBC with accompanying autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) carries a negative prognosis. This study examined the clinical characteristics of PBC and analyzed the factors that affect its prognosis. Methods Patients diagnosed with PBC between January 1998 and December 2010 based on clinical and histopathological findings were compiled and analyzed retrospectively. Results Among 27 patients, 24 (1 male and 23 females, ages 50.0±9.3 years) were followed up. The follow-up period was 8.6±0.9 years. Of the 24 patients, 9 patients progressed to liver cirrhosis (LC). Comparison between patients who did and did not progress to LC revealed statistically significant differences in the patients' serum total bilirubin (2.7±1.8 vs. 0.8±0.4, P=0.012), the Mayo risk score (5.1±0.7 vs. 3.9±0.6, P=0.001), the revised IAHG (International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group) score (9.2±2.3 vs. 5.4±3.0, P=0.004) and frequency of AIH overlap (5/9 [55.6%] vs. 0/15 [0%], P=0.001) at the time of diagnosis. Conclusions We propose that serum total bilirubin, the Mayo risk score, and the revised IAHG score at the time of diagnosis are helpful for predicting PBC prognosis. In particular, since all of the patients with accompanying AIH progressed to LC, the presence of overlap syndrome at the time of diagnosis is helpful for predicting PBC prognosis and providing an adequate treatment. PMID:23323253

  16. Age-Adjustment and Related Epidemiology Rates in Education and Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, John D.; Kruckman, Laurence; George, Joyce

    2006-01-01

    A quick review of introductory textbooks reveals that while gerontology authors and instructors introduce some aspect of demography and epidemiology data, there is limited focus on age adjustment or other important epidemiology rates. The goal of this paper is to reintroduce a variety of basic epidemiology strategies such as incidence, prevalence,…

  17. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    PubMed Central

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-01-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  18. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: practical prognostic models based on large cohort of international patients

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate practical prognostic models for death at 14 days and for death or severe disability six months after traumatic brain injury. Design Multivariable logistic regression to select variables that were independently associated with two patient outcomes. Two models designed: “basic” model (demographic and clinical variables only) and “CT” model (basic model plus results of computed tomography). The models were subsequently developed for high and low-middle income countries separately. Setting Medical Research Council (MRC) CRASH Trial. Subjects 10 008 patients with traumatic brain injury. Models externally validated in a cohort of 8509. Results The basic model included four predictors: age, Glasgow coma scale, pupil reactivity, and the presence of major extracranial injury. The CT model also included the presence of petechial haemorrhages, obliteration of the third ventricle or basal cisterns, subarachnoid bleeding, midline shift, and non-evacuated haematoma. In the derivation sample the models showed excellent discrimination (C statistic above 0.80). The models showed good calibration graphically. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated good calibration, except for the CT model in low-middle income countries. External validation for unfavourable outcome at six months in high income countries showed that basic and CT models had good discrimination (C statistic 0.77 for both models) but poorer calibration. Conclusion Simple prognostic models can be used to obtain valid predictions of relevant outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury. PMID:18270239

  19. Age-adjustment and related epidemiology rates in education and research.

    PubMed

    Baker, John D; Kruckman, Laurence; George, Joyce

    2006-01-01

    A quick review of introductory textbooks reveals that while gerontology authors and instructors introduce some aspect of demography and epidemiology data, there is limited focus on age adjustment or other important epidemiology rates. The goal of this paper is to reintroduce a variety of basic epidemiology strategies such as incidence, prevalence, crude, age-specific and age-adjustment rates into the gerontology classroom. Background information and formulas for each rate, as well as examples of how they can be applied are provided. A recent change, encouraged by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, from a 1940 to a 2000 "standard million population" for ageadjusted rates, is reviewed. Finally, a teaching module with answers is provided for use in the gerontology classroom. PMID:16873207

  20. The prognostic significance of the 2014 International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grading system for prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Samaratunga, Hemamali; Delahunt, Brett; Gianduzzo, Troy; Coughlin, Geoff; Duffy, David; LeFevre, Ian; Johannsen, Shulammite; Egevad, Lars; Yaxley, John

    2015-10-01

    The 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) modified Gleason grading system was further amended in 2014 with the establishment of grade groupings (ISUP grading). This study examined the predictive value of ISUP grading, comparing results with recognised prognostic parameters.Of 3700 men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) reported at Aquesta Pathology between 2008 and 2013, 2079 also had a positive needle biopsy available for review. We examined the association between needle biopsy 2014 ISUP grade and 2005 modified Gleason score, tumour volume, pathological stage of the subsequent RP tumour, as well as biochemical recurrence-free survival (BRFS). The median age was 62 (range 32-79 years). Median serum prostate specific antigen was 5.9 (range 0.4-69 ng/mL). For needle biopsies, 280 (13.5%), 1031 (49.6%), 366 (17.6%), 77 (3.7%) and 325 (15.6%) were 2014 ISUP grades 1-5, respectively. Needle biopsy 2014 ISUP grade showed a significant association with RP tumour volume (p < 0.001), TNM pT and N stage (p < 0.001) and BRFS (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression model showed serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) at the time of diagnosis and ISUP grade >2 to be significantly associated with BRFS.This study provides evidence of the prognostic significance of ISUP grading for thin core needle biopsy of prostate. PMID:26325670

  1. Prognostic significance of geriatric assessment in combination with laboratory parameters in elderly patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Aaldriks, Ab A; Giltay, Erik J; Nortier, Johan W R; van der Geest, Lydia G M; Tanis, Bea C; Ypma, Paula; le Cessie, Saskia; Maartense, Ed

    2015-04-01

    The age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (IPI) is an important prognostic factor for patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). We investigated whether a geriatric assessment (GA) is of additional prognostic value in NHL. In this prospective cohort study of 44 patients aged 70 years or older with NHL receiving rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (R-CHOP), a GA was administered before the start of chemotherapy. GA was composed of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI), Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE), Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and levels of albumin, creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and hemoglobin. Multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression and the Cox regression model. After adjustment for sex, age, comorbidity and univariate laboratory values with p ≤ 0.1, abnormal MNA and GFI scores and low hemoglobin level were associated with not being able to complete the intended chemotherapy: odds ratio (OR) 8.29 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24-55.6; p = 0.03), 9.17 (95% CI: 1.51-55.8; p = 0.02) and 5.41 (95% CI: 0.99-29.8; p = 0.05), respectively. Adjusted for sex, age, comorbidity, age-adjusted IPI and univariate laboratory values with p ≤ 0.1, frailty by GFI and low hemoglobin were associated with worse survival, with a hazard ratio (HR) of mortality of 2.55 (95% CI: 1.07-6.10; p = 0.04) and 4.90 (95% CI: 1.76-13.7; p = 0.002), respectively. We conclude that (risk of) malnutrition, measured with the MNA, frailty, measured with the GFI, and low hemoglobin level had additional predictive value for early treatment withdrawal, and GFI and hemoglobin were, independent of the age-adjusted IPI, predictive for an increased mortality risk. PMID:24956143

  2. Prognostic Factors for Outcome in Localized Extremity Rhabdomyosarcoma. Pooled Analysis From Four International Cooperative Groups

    PubMed Central

    Oberlin, Odile; Rey, Annie; Brown, Kenneth L.B.; Bisogno, Gianni; Koscielniak, Ewa; Stevens, Michael C.G.; Hawkins, Douglas S.; Meyer, William H.; La, Trang H.; Carli, Modesto; Anderson, James R.

    2016-01-01

    Background Extremity rhabdomyosarcomas do not always show satisfactory outcomes. We analyzed data from 643 patients treated in 14 studies conducted by European and North American groups between 1983 and 2004 to identify factors predictive of outcome. Procedure Clinical factors, including age; histology; site of primary (hand and foot vs. other); size; invasiveness (T stage); nodal involvement (N stage); and treatment factors, including post-surgical group; chemotherapy type and duration; radiotherapy; and treatment (before or after 1995); were evaluated for impact on overall survival (OS). Results 5-year OS were 67% (se 1.8). Multivariate analysis showed that lower OS correlated with age >3 years, T2 and N1 stage, incomplete initial surgery, treatment before 1995, and European cooperative group treatment. Patients with gross residual disease after initial incomplete resection/biopsy had similar outcomes in both continental groups. The better global survival of patients treated in American studies was accounted for by differences in outcome in the subset of those with grossly resected tumors (OS 86% [se 3] for COG patients vs. 68% [se 4] for European patients (P = 0.004)). When excluding chemotherapy duration from the model, analysis in this subset of patients showed that cooperative group (P = 0.001), site (P = 0.001), and T stage (P = 0.05) were all significant. However, after adding duration of chemotherapy (≥ 27 weeks) to the model, only primary site remained significant (P = 0.006). Conclusion This meta-analysis confirms the role of many established prognostic factors but identifies for the first time that chemotherapy duration may have an impact on outcome in patients with grossly resected tumors. PMID:26257045

  3. Cutaneous Lymphoma International Consortium Study of Outcome in Advanced Stages of Mycosis Fungoides and Sézary Syndrome: Effect of Specific Prognostic Markers on Survival and Development of a Prognostic Model

    PubMed Central

    Scarisbrick, Julia J.; Prince, H. Miles; Vermeer, Maarten H.; Quaglino, Pietro; Horwitz, Steven; Porcu, Pierluigi; Stadler, Rudolf; Wood, Gary S.; Beylot-Barry, Marie; Pham-Ledard, Anne; Foss, Francine; Girardi, Michael; Bagot, Martine; Michel, Laurence; Battistella, Maxime; Guitart, Joan; Kuzel, Timothy M.; Martinez-Escala, Maria Estela; Estrach, Teresa; Papadavid, Evangelia; Antoniou, Christina; Rigopoulos, Dimitis; Nikolaou, Vassilki; Sugaya, Makoto; Miyagaki, Tomomitsu; Gniadecki, Robert; Sanches, José Antonio; Cury-Martins, Jade; Miyashiro, Denis; Servitje, Octavio; Muniesa, Cristina; Berti, Emilio; Onida, Francesco; Corti, Laura; Hodak, Emilia; Amitay-Laish, Iris; Ortiz-Romero, Pablo L.; Rodríguez-Peralto, Jose L.; Knobler, Robert; Porkert, Stefanie; Bauer, Wolfgang; Pimpinelli, Nicola; Grandi, Vieri; Cowan, Richard; Rook, Alain; Kim, Ellen; Pileri, Alessandro; Patrizi, Annalisa; Pujol, Ramon M.; Wong, Henry; Tyler, Kelly; Stranzenbach, Rene; Querfeld, Christiane; Fava, Paolo; Maule, Milena; Willemze, Rein; Evison, Felicity; Morris, Stephen; Twigger, Robert; Talpur, Rakhshandra; Kim, Jinah; Ognibene, Grant; Li, Shufeng; Tavallaee, Mahkam; Hoppe, Richard T.; Duvic, Madeleine; Whittaker, Sean J.; Kim, Youn H.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Advanced-stage mycosis fungoides (MF; stage IIB to IV) and Sézary syndrome (SS) are aggressive lymphomas with a median survival of 1 to 5 years. Clinical management is stage based; however, there is wide range of outcome within stages. Published prognostic studies in MF/SS have been single-center trials. Because of the rarity of MF/SS, only a large collaboration would power a study to identify independent prognostic markers. Patients and Methods Literature review identified the following 10 candidate markers: stage, age, sex, cutaneous histologic features of folliculotropism, CD30 positivity, proliferation index, large-cell transformation, WBC/lymphocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and identical T-cell clone in blood and skin. Data were collected at specialist centers on patients diagnosed with advanced-stage MF/SS from 2007. Each parameter recorded at diagnosis was tested against overall survival (OS). Results Staging data on 1,275 patients with advanced MF/SS from 29 international sites were included for survival analysis. The median OS was 63 months, with 2- and 5-year survival rates of 77% and 52%, respectively. The median OS for patients with stage IIB disease was 68 months, but patients diagnosed with stage III disease had slightly improved survival compared with patients with stage IIB, although patients diagnosed with stage IV disease had significantly worse survival (48 months for stage IVA and 33 months for stage IVB). Of the 10 variables tested, four (stage IV, age > 60 years, large-cell transformation, and increased lactate dehydrogenase) were independent prognostic markers for a worse survival. Combining these four factors in a prognostic index model identified the following three risk groups across stages with significantly different 5-year survival rates: low risk (68%), intermediate risk (44%), and high risk (28%). Conclusion To our knowledge, this study includes the largest cohort of patients with advanced-stage MF/SS and

  4. Age-adjusted plasma N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level in Kawasaki disease

    PubMed Central

    Jun, Heul; Ko, Kyung Ok; Lim, Jae Woo; Yoon, Jung Min; Lee, Gyung Min

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Recent reports showed that plasma N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) could be a useful biomarker of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) unresponsiveness and coronary artery lesion (CAL) development in Kawasaki disease (KD). The levels of these peptides are critically influenced by age; hence, the normal range and upper limits for infants and children are different. We performed an age-adjusted analysis of plasma NT-proBNP level to validate its clinical use in the diagnosis of KD. Methods The data of 131 patients with KD were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into 2 groups—group I (high NT-proBNP group) and group II (normal NT-proBNP group)—comprising patients with NT-proBNP concentrations higher and lower than the 95th percentile of the reference value, respectively. We compared the laboratory data, responsiveness to IVIG, and the risk of CAL in both groups. Results Group I showed significantly higher white blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, C-reactive protein level, aspartate aminotransferase level, and troponin-I level than group II (P<0.05). The risk of CAL was also significantly higher in group I (odds ratio, 5.78; P=0.012). IVIG unresponsiveness in group I was three times that in group II (odds ratio, 3.35; P= 0.005). Conclusion Age-adjusted analysis of plasma NT-proBNP level could be helpful in predicting IVIG unresponsiveness and risk of CAL development in patients with KD. PMID:27588030

  5. The prognostic significance of early treatment response in pediatric relapsed acute myeloid leukemia: results of the international study Relapsed AML 2001/01

    PubMed Central

    Creutzig, Ursula; Zimmermann, Martin; Dworzak, Michael N.; Gibson, Brenda; Tamminga, Rienk; Abrahamsson, Jonas; Ha, Shau-Yin; Hasle, Henrik; Maschan, Alexey; Bertrand, Yves; Leverger, Guy; von Neuhoff, Christine; Razzouk, Bassem; Rizzari, Carmelo; Smisek, Petr; Smith, Owen P.; Stark, Batia; Reinhardt, Dirk; Kaspers, Gertjan L.

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic significance of early response to treatment has not been reported in relapsed pediatric acute myeloid leukemia. In order to identify an early and easily applicable prognostic factor allowing subsequent treatment modifications, we assessed leukemic blast counts in the bone marrow by morphology on days 15 and 28 after first reinduction in 338 patients of the international Relapsed-AML2001/01 trial. Both day 15 and day 28 status was classified as good (≤20% leukemic blasts) in 77% of patients. The correlation between day 15 and 28 blast percentages was significant, but not strong (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.49, P<0.001). Survival probability decreased in a stepwise fashion along with rising blast counts at day 28. Patients with bone marrow blast counts at this time-point of ≤5%, 6–10%, 11–20% and >20% had 4-year probabilities of survival of 52%±3% versus 36%±10% versus 21%±9% versus 14%±4%, respectively, P<0.0001; this trend was not seen for day 15 results. Multivariate analysis showed that early treatment response at day 28 had the strongest prognostic significance, superseding even time to relapse (< or ≥12 months). In conclusion, an early response to treatment, measured on day 28, is a strong and independent prognostic factor potentially useful for treatment stratification in pediatric relapsed acute myeloid leukemia. This study was registered with ISRCTN code: 94206677. PMID:24763401

  6. Trends in the age adjusted mortality from acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction in the United States (1988-2004) based on race, gender, infarct location and comorbidities.

    PubMed

    Movahed, Mohammed-Reza; John, Jooby; Hashemzadeh, Mehrnoosh; Jamal, M Mazen; Hashemzadeh, Mehrtash

    2009-10-15

    Treatment of acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has dramatically changed over the past 2 decades. The goal of this study was to determine trends in the mortality of patients with acute STEMIs in the United States over a 16-year period (1988 to 2004) on the basis of gender, race, infarct location, and co-morbidities. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample database was used to analyze the age-adjusted mortality rates for STEMI from 1988 to 2004 for inpatients age >40. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes consistent with acute STEMI were used. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample database contained a total of 1,316,216 patients who had diagnoses of acute STEMIs from 1988 to 2004. The mean age of these patients was 66.92 +/- 12.82 years. A total of 163,915 hospital deaths occurred during the study period. From 1988, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased gradually for all acute STEMIs for the entire study period (in 1988, 406.86 per 100,000, 95% confidence interval 110.25 to 703.49; in 2004, 286.02 per 100,000, 95% confidence interval 45.21 to 526.84). Furthermore, unadjusted mortality decreased from 15% in 1988 to 10% in 2004 (p <0.01). This decrease was similar between the genders, among most ethnicities, and in patients with diabetes and those with congestive heart failure. However, women and African Americans had higher rates of acute STEMI-related mortality compared to men and Caucasians over the years studied. In conclusion, age-adjusted mortality from acute STEMIs has significantly decreased over the past 16 years, with persistent higher mortality rates in women and African Americans the study period. PMID:19801019

  7. Validation of the revised International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET-thrombosis) in 585 Mayo Clinic patients.

    PubMed

    Haider, Mahnur; Gangat, Naseema; Lasho, Terra; Abou Hussein, Ahmed K; Elala, Yoseph C; Hanson, Curtis; Tefferi, Ayalew

    2016-06-01

    The primary objective of treatment in essential thrombocythemia (ET) is to prevent thromboembolic complications. In this regard, advanced age and thrombosis history have long distinguished "low" from "high" risk patients. More recently, JAK2V617F and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors were identified as additional modifiers, leading to the development of a 3-tiered International Prognostic Score of Thrombosis for ET (IPSET-thrombosis): "low," "intermediate," and "high". The international data set used to develop IPSET-thrombosis was recently re-analyzed in order to quantify the additional pro-thrombotic effect of JAK2V617F and CV risk factors in specific risk subcategories. The revised IPSET-thrombosis identified four risk categories based on three adverse variables (thrombosis history, age >60 years and JAK2V617F): very low (no adverse features), low (presence of JAK2V617F), intermediate (age >60 years) and high (presence of thrombosis history or presence of both advanced age and JAK2V617F). In this study of 585 patients with ET (median age 68 years; 61% female), we validated the revised IPSET-thrombosis by confirming significant differences in thrombosis risk between "very low" and "low" (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.3) and between "intermediate" and "high" (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1 - 5.2) risk patients. Furthermore, in multivariable analysis, only JAK2V617F (HR=1.8, CI= 1.07 - 2.94) and history of thrombosis (HR=2.1, CI= 1.20 - 3.58) were independently predictive of future thrombotic events. The revised IPSET-thrombosis needs confirmation in prospective studies, especially in terms of risk-adapted therapy that includes the need for aspirin therapy in very low risk, twice-daily aspirin therapy for low risk and cytoreductive therapy for low or intermediate risk patients. PMID:26799697

  8. Coalesced Multicentric Analysis of 2,351 Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes Indicates an Underestimation of Poor-Risk Cytogenetics of Myelodysplastic Syndromes in the International Prognostic Scoring System

    PubMed Central

    Schanz, Julie; Steidl, Christian; Fonatsch, Christa; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Tuechler, Heinz; Valent, Peter; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Giagounidis, Aristoteles; Aul, Carlo; Lübbert, Michael; Stauder, Reinhard; Krieger, Otto; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Kantarjian, Hagop; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Estey, Elihu

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) remains the most commonly used system for risk classification in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs). The IPSS gives more weight to blast count than to cytogenetics. However, previous publications suggested that cytogenetics are underweighted in the IPSS. Here we investigate the prognostic impact of cytogenetic subgroups compared with that of bone marrow blast count in a large, multicentric, international patient cohort. Patients and Methods In total, 2,351 patients with MDS who have records in the German-Austrian and the MD Anderson Cancer Center databases were included and analyzed in univariate and multivariate models regarding overall survival and risk of transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The data were analyzed separately for patients treated with supportive care without specific therapy, with AML-like chemotherapy, or with other therapy regimens (low-dose chemotherapy, demethylating agents, immune modulating agents, valproic acid, and cyclosporine). Results The prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetic findings (as defined by the IPSS classification) on overall survival was as unfavorable as an increased (> 20%) blast count. The hazard ratio (compared with an abnormal karyotype or a bone marrow blast count < 5%) was 3.3 for poor-risk cytogenetics, 4.8 for complex abnormalities harboring chromosomes 5 and/or 7, and 3.1 for a blast count of 21% to 30% (P < .01 for all categories). The predictive power of the IPSS cytogenetic subgroups was unaffected by type of therapy given. Conclusion The independent prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetics on overall survival is equivalent to the impact of high blast counts. This finding should be considered in the upcoming revision of the IPSS. PMID:21519021

  9. Intertumor linkage of age-adjusted incidence rate in 15 human neoplasias of both sexes.

    PubMed

    Kodama, M; Kodama, T; Murakami, M; Yokochi, T

    2000-01-01

    We report here that the application of the least square method of Gauss to the log-transformed age-adjusted incidence rate changes in time and space, as tested with either the male-female or the female-male tumor pairs for each of 15 tumor entities, has revealed the presence of intertumor linkage that was conditioning the changes of two cancer risk parameters to let them fit to the equilibrium model with close resemblance to the chemical equilibrium model. The dissimilarity of the cancer risk equilibrium model to the chemical equilibrium model--topological dissociation between the equilibrium model of centripetal force (r = -1.000) and that of centrifugal force (r = +1.000)--was discussed in the light of the concept of the oncogene activation-tumor suppressor gene inactivation. The proposed network hypothesis of human neoplasia found supporting evidence in the corresponding changes of the statistical features of human neoplasias with and without sex discrimination of cancer risk. PMID:10836207

  10. Characteristics of 40 primary extranodal non-Hodgkin lymphomas of the oral cavity in perspective of the new WHO classification and the International Prognostic Index.

    PubMed

    van der Waal, R I F; Huijgens, P C; van der Valk, P; van der Waal, I

    2005-06-01

    Non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHLs) are often present outside the lymph nodes. Although primary extranodal NHLs (PE-NHL) form a substantial part of all NHLs, reports on oral PE-NHLs are rare. Forty patients with PE-NHL of the oral cavity have been studied for the distribution of gender, age, oral subsite and presenting complaint, histological subtype according to the WHO classification, clinical stage, treatment, and follow-up. The data are reviewed against the background of the literature. Furthermore, the International Prognostic Index has been taken into consideration. All patients had a lymphoma of B-cell lineage. Two-thirds of patients presented with locoregional disease. Mean survival time was 38 months, with a mean recurrence-free survival time of 31 months. There was no statistically significant difference in survival time between patients with bone versus soft tissue localisation of the PE-NHL. In view of the rarity of PE-NHL involving the oral region multicenter studies are needed for evaluation of the usefulness of the International Prognostic Index for non-Hodgkin lymphoma in this particular part of the body. PMID:16053848

  11. Predictive value of the age-adjusted charlson comorbidity index on perioperative complications and survival in patients undergoing primary debulking surgery for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Suidan, Rudy S.; Leitao, Mario M.; Zivanovic, Oliver; Gardner, Ginger J.; Long Roche, Kara C.; Sonoda, Yukio; Levine, Douglas A.; Jewell, Elizabeth L.; Brown, Carol L.; Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R.; Charlson, Mary E.; Chi, Dennis S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the ability of the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity index (ACCI) to predict perioperative complications and survival in patients undergoing primary debulking for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Methods Data were analyzed for all patients with stage IIIB-IV EOC who underwent primary cytoreduction from 1/2001–1/2010 at our institution. Patients were divided into 3 groups based on an ACCI of 0–1, 2–3, and ≥4. Clinical and survival outcomes were assessed and compared. Results We identified 567 patients; 199 (35%) had an ACCI of 0–1, 271 (48%) had an ACCI of 2–3, and 97 (17%) had an ACCI of ≥4. The ACCI was significantly associated with the rate of complete gross resection (0–1=44%, 2–3=32%, and ≥4=32%; p=0.02), but was not associated with the rate of minor (47% vs 47% vs 43%, p=0.84) or major (18% vs 19% vs 16%, p=0.8) complications. The ACCI was also significantly associated with progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Median PFS for patients with an ACCI of 0–1, 2–3, and ≥4 was 20.3, 16, and 15.4 months, respectively (p=0.02). Median OS for patients with an ACCI of 0–1, 2–3, and ≥4 was 65.3, 49.9, and 42.3 months, respectively (p<0.001). On multivariate analysis, the ACCI remained a significant prognostic factor for both PFS (p=0.02) and OS (p<0.001). Conclusions The ACCI was not associated with perioperative complications in patients undergoing primary cytoreduction for advanced EOC, but was a significant predictor of PFS and OS. Prospective clinical trials in ovarian cancer should consider stratifying for an age-comorbidity covariate. PMID:26037900

  12. Prognostic significance of FLT3 internal tandem duplication and NPM1 mutations in acute myeloid leukemia in an unselected patient population.

    PubMed

    Suzuki, Rikio; Onizuka, Makoto; Kojima, Minoru; Shimada, Masako; Okamura, Kaori; Fukagawa, Satomi; Tsuboi, Kosuke; Kikuchi, Ako; Kobayashi, Hiroyuki; Shintani, Ayumi; Ogawa, Yoshiaki; Kawada, Hiroshi; Hotta, Tomomitsu; Ando, Kiyoshi

    2007-12-01

    Mutations in the fms-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) gene containing an internal tandem duplication (FLT3/ITD) or mutations in the nucleophosmin 1 gene (NPM1) are thought to be prognostic indicators in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Previous studies suggested that FLT3/ITD mutation indicates a poor prognosis and that NPM1 mutation indicates a more favorable one, but these studies were often performed with selected patient populations. We investigated the clinical significance of these mutations at our institution with an unselected group of patients with newly diagnosed AML. This group included patients > or =60 years old and those with a poor performance status. Using polymerase chain reaction and sequencing analyses, we detected FLT3/ITD mutations in 12 patients (20.0%) and NPM1 mutations in 7 patients (11.7%) among a group of 60 patients. There was a nonsignificant trend for FLT3/ITD mutation to be associated with a poorer predicted overall survival (OS) probability in this population. In contrast, OS was significantly higher in patients with wild-type NPM1 than in patients with NPM1 mutation, both for all AML patients and for AML patients with a normal karyotype. In this general and unselected AML patient population, NPM1 mutation was not a prognostic indicator of a favorable outcome. PMID:18192111

  13. [Elderly residents in homes for the aged: adjustment in the light of Callista Roy].

    PubMed

    Freitas, Maria Célia de; Guedes, Maria Vilani Cavalcante; de Galiza, Francisca Tereza; Nogueira, Jéssica de Menezes; Onofre, Marília Ribeiro

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the adaptation of elderly individuals voluntarily reside in Institution for the Aged (LTCF) in the city of Fortaleza-CE, based on the theoretical model of Roy. Descriptive study, in a IPLI involving thirteen elderly residents. Data collect was through interviews in the months of October and December 2011 and organized by thematic content analysis. The following themes has emerged: I Physical subdivided into body sensation and body image; Staff and I, subdivided into self-consistency and auto ideal be moral-ethical-spiritual. Thus, the option to live in ILPI not effectively changed the lives of elderly people. They managed to adapt to the local and coexist well with internal and external stimuli. PMID:25590880

  14. Clinical Features, Short-Term Mortality, and Prognostic Risk Factors of Septic Patients Admitted to Internal Medicine Units: Results of an Italian Multicenter Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Mazzone, Antonino; Dentali, Francesco; La Regina, Micaela; Foglia, Emanuela; Gambacorta, Maurizia; Garagiola, Elisabetta; Bonardi, Giorgio; Clerici, Pierangelo; Concia, Ercole; Colombo, Fabrizio; Campanini, Mauro

    2016-01-01

    Only a few studies provided data on the clinical history of sepsis within internal Medicine units. The aim of the study was to assess the short-term mortality and to evaluate the prognostic risk factors in a large cohort of septic patients treated in internal medicine units. Thirty-one internal medicine units participated to the study. Within each participating unit, all admitted patients were screened for the presence of sepsis. A total of 533 patients were included; 78 patients (14.6%, 95%CI 11.9, 18.0%) died during hospitalization; mortality rate was 5.5% (95% CI 3.1, 9.6%) in patients with nonsevere sepsis and 20.1% (95%CI 16.2, 28.8%) in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Severe sepsis or septic shock (OR 4.41, 95%CI 1.93, 10.05), immune system weakening (OR 2.10, 95%CI 1.12, 3.94), active solid cancer (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.16, 3.94), and age (OR 1.03 per year, 95% CI 1.01, 1.06) were significantly associated with an increased mortality risk, whereas blood culture positive for Escherichia coli was significantly associated with a reduced mortality risk (OR 0.46, 95%CI 0.24, 0.88). In-hospital mortality of septic patients treated in internal medicine units appeared similar to the mortality rate obtained in recent studies conducted in the ICU setting. PMID:26825876

  15. Prognostic significance of pattern and burden of metastatic disease in patients with stage 4 neuroblastoma: A study from the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group database.

    PubMed

    Morgenstern, Daniel A; London, Wendy B; Stephens, Derek; Volchenboum, Samuel L; Simon, Thorsten; Nakagawara, Akira; Shimada, Hiroyuki; Schleiermacher, Gudrun; Matthay, Katherine K; Cohn, Susan L; Pearson, Andrew D J; Irwin, Meredith S

    2016-09-01

    Neuroblastoma is a childhood cancer with remarkably divergent tumour behaviour and the presence of metastatic disease is a powerful predictor of adverse outcome. However, the importance of the involvement of specific metastatic sites or overall metastatic burden in determining outcome has not been fully explored. We analysed data from the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group database for 2250 patients with stage 4 disease treated from 1990 to 2002. Metastatic burden was assessed using a 'metastatic site index' (MSI), a score based on the number of metastatic systems involved. Overall, involvement of bone marrow, bone, lung, central nervous system, or other sites was associated with worse outcome. For patients aged ≥18 months, involvement of liver had the greatest impact on outcome and was associated with tumour MYCN amplification and adrenal primary and lung metastases. Increased MSI was associated with worse outcome and higher baseline ferritin/lactate dehydrogenase. We explored the impact of initial treatment approach on these associations. Limiting the analysis to patients allocated to protocols including stem cell transplant (SCT), there was no longer an association of outcome with metastatic involvement of any individual system or increasing MSI. Thus, treatment escalation with SCT (and the addition of differentiating agents to maintenance therapy) appears to have provided maximal benefit to patients with greatest metastatic disease burden. These findings underscore the importance of examining prognostic factors in the context of specific treatments since the addition of new therapies may change or even negate the predictive impact of a particular variable. PMID:27434878

  16. Prognostic implications of NPM1 mutations and FLT3 internal tandem duplications in Egyptian patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Shamaa, Sameh; Laimon, Nabil; Aladle, Doaa A; Azmy, Emad; Elghannam, Doaa M; Salem, Dalia A; Taalab, Mona M

    2014-01-01

    Nucleophosmin (NPM1) and fms-like tyrosine kinase 3-internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD) gene mutations represent the most frequent molecular aberrations in patients with cytogenetically normal-acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML). We analyzed the prognostic impact of these mutations and their interactions in adults with CN-AML. NPM1 mutation (NPM1mut) and FLT3-ITD mutation (FLT3-ITD+) were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction and GeneScan assays of bone marrow samples obtained from newly diagnosed 104 CN-AML patients. FLT3-ITD+ and NPM1mut were detected in 36 (34.6%) and 30 (28.8%) out of 104 subjects, respectively, 16 cases (15.4%) had double NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD+. The incidence of FLT3-ITD+ was significantly higher in the NPM1mut group than in the NPM1 wild (NPM1wt) group (P = 0.018). Statistical analysis revealed that isolated NPM1mut group had a better clinical outcomes in terms of higher complete response (CR) rate (P = 0.01) and a trend towards favorable overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) (P = 0.28, 0.40, respectively). In contrast, the isolated FLT3-ITD+ group had an unfavorable outcome in terms of lower CR rate (P = 0.12), shorter OS, and DFS (P < 0.0001 for both). The NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD-group had the best OS and DFS, while the NPM1wt/FLT3-ITD+ group had the worst OS and DFS than other groups (NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD+ or NPM1wt/FLT3-ITD-) (P < 0.0001 for both). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age and FLT3/ITD+ were independent poor prognostic factors for OS (P = 0.006, <0.0001, respectively), while FLT3/ITD+ was independent predictor for DFS (P = 0.04). However, NPM1mut did not have a significant impact on OS and DFS. In conclusion, adult patients with CN-AML carrying isolated NPM1mut and isolated FLT3-ITD+ exhibit different clinical outcomes than those with NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD+ or NPM1wt/FLT3-ITD-. Patients with NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD- had the best prognosis in terms of higher CR, OS, and DFS, while those with NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD+ had the worst

  17. Prognostic significance of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in patients treated with selective internal radiation therapy

    PubMed Central

    D’Emic, Nicole; Engelman, Alexander; Molitoris, Jason; Hanlon, Alexandra; Sharma, Navesh K.; Moeslein, Fred M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios (PLR) may represent markers of a suboptimal host immune response to cancer and have been shown to correlate with prognosis in multiple tumor types across different treatment modalities, including radiation therapy. Limited data suggest that NLR may predict for survival and disease control in patients receiving selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT). The correlation between clinical outcomes and change in NLR and PLR after SIRT has not been evaluated. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 339 consecutive patients with primary (n=37) or metastatic (n=79) liver cancer treated with SIRT from 2006 to 2014. Complete blood counts with differential were available for 116 patients both before and after (median, 29 and 20 days, respectively) SIRT. Survival and progression were calculated from date of initial SIRT. Patient and tumor characteristics evaluated for ability to predict overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) included pre- and post-treatment neutrophil, platelet, and lymphocyte counts (LCs), as well as NLR, PLR, and relative change in NLR and PLR. Cutoff values were determined for variables that were significant on multivariate analysis (MVA) for OS and/or PFS. Results Median follow-up of surviving patients was 12 months. Median OS was 8 months from SIRT and 20 months from date of liver metastasis diagnosis. Significant factors on univariate analysis (UVA) for both lower OS and PFS included higher post-treatment neutrophil count (NC), higher post-treatment NLR, higher liver tumor volume, higher percentage liver tumor burden, and worse Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status. Significant factors on MVA for lower OS and PFS were ECOG performance status ≥2, higher liver tumor volume, higher pretreatment PLR, and increase in PLR after SIRT. Post-treatment increase in PLR >3-fold was the most predictive early marker for increased risk of death

  18. An Overview of Systematic Reviews on Prognostic Factors in Neck Pain: Results from the International Collaboration on Neck Pain (ICON) Project

    PubMed Central

    Walton, David M; Carroll, Linda J; Kasch, Helge; Sterling, Michele; Verhagen, Arianne P; MacDermid, Joy C; Gross, Anita; Santaguida, P. Lina; Carlesso, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Given the challenges of chronic musculoskeletal pain and disability, establishing a clear prognosis in the acute stage has become increasingly recognized as a valuable approach to mitigate chronic problems. Neck pain represents a condition that is common, potentially disabling, and has a high rate of transition to chronic or persistent problems. As a field of research, prognosis in neck pain has stimulated several empirical primary research papers, and a number of systematic reviews. As part of the International Consensus on Neck (ICON) project, we sought to establish the general state of knowledge in the area through a structured, systematic review of systematic reviews (overview). An exhaustive search strategy was created and employed to identify the 13 systematic reviews (SRs) that served as the primary data sources for this overview. A decision algorithm for data synthesis, which incorporated currency of the SR, risk of bias assessment of the SRs using AMSTAR scoring and consistency of findings across SRs, determined the level of confidence in the risk profile of 133 different variables. The results provide high confidence that baseline neck pain intensity and baseline disability have a strong association with outcome, while angular deformities of the neck and parameters of the initiating trauma have no effect on outcome. A vast number of predictors provide low or very low confidence or inconclusive results, suggesting there is still much work to be done in this field. Despite the presence of multiple SR and this overview, there is insufficient evidence to make firm conclusions on many potential prognostic variables. This study demonstrates the challenges in conducting overviews on prognosis where clear synthesis critieria and a lack of specifics of primary data in SR are barriers. PMID:24115971

  19. Changes in Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates and Disparities for Rural Physician Shortage Areas Staffed by the National Health Service Corps: 1984-1998

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pathman, Donald E.; Fryer, George E.; Green, Larry A.; Phillips, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: This study assesses whether the National Health Service Corps's legislated goals to see health improve and health disparities lessen are being met in rural health professional shortage areas for a key population health indicator: age-adjusted mortality. Methods: In a descriptive study using a pre-post design with comparison groups, the…

  20. Changes in Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates and Disparities for Rural Physician Shortage Areas Staffed by the National Health Service Corps: 1984-1998

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pathman, Donald E.; Fryer, George E.; Green, Larry A.; Phillips, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    This study assesses whether the National Health Service Corps's legislated goals to see health improve and health disparities lessen are being met in rural health professional shortage areas for a key population health indicator: age-adjusted mortality. In a descriptive study using a pre-post design with comparison groups, the authors calculated…

  1. Prognostic and Predictive Value of Centrally Reviewed Ki-67 Labeling Index in Postmenopausal Women With Endocrine-Responsive Breast Cancer: Results From Breast International Group Trial 1-98 Comparing Adjuvant Tamoxifen With Letrozole

    PubMed Central

    Viale, Giuseppe; Giobbie-Hurder, Anita; Regan, Meredith M.; Coates, Alan S.; Mastropasqua, Mauro G.; Dell'Orto, Patrizia; Maiorano, Eugenio; MacGrogan, Gaëtan; Braye, Stephen G.; Öhlschlegel, Christian; Neven, Patrick; Orosz, Zsolt; Olszewski, Wojciech P.; Knox, Fiona; Thürlimann, Beat; Price, Karen N.; Castiglione-Gertsch, Monica; Gelber, Richard D.; Gusterson, Barry A.; Goldhirsch, Aron

    2008-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in a trial comparing letrozole (Let) with tamoxifen (Tam) as adjuvant therapy in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. Patients and Methods Breast International Group (BIG) trial 1-98 randomly assigned 8,010 patients to four treatment arms comparing Let and Tam with sequences of each agent. Of 4,922 patients randomly assigned to receive 5 years of monotherapy with either agent, 2,685 had primary tumor material available for central pathology assessment of Ki-67 LI by immunohistochemistry and had tumors confirmed to express estrogen receptors after central review. The prognostic and predictive value of centrally measured Ki-67 LI on disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed among these patients using proportional hazards modeling, with Ki-67 LI values dichotomized at the median value of 11%. Results Higher values of Ki-67 LI were associated with adverse prognostic factors and with worse DFS (hazard ratio [HR; high:low] = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.3). The magnitude of the treatment benefit for Let versus Tam was greater among patients with high tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.72) than among patients with low tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.15; interaction P = .09). Conclusion Ki-67 LI is confirmed as a prognostic factor in this study. High Ki-67 LI levels may identify a patient group that particularly benefits from initial Let adjuvant therapy. PMID:18981464

  2. Identification of a 24-Gene Prognostic Signature That Improves the European LeukemiaNet Risk Classification of Acute Myeloid Leukemia: An International Collaborative Study

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zejuan; Herold, Tobias; He, Chunjiang; Valk, Peter J.M.; Chen, Ping; Jurinovic, Vindi; Mansmann, Ulrich; Radmacher, Michael D.; Maharry, Kati S.; Sun, Miao; Yang, Xinan; Huang, Hao; Jiang, Xi; Sauerland, Maria-Cristina; Büchner, Thomas; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Elkahloun, Abdel; Neilly, Mary Beth; Zhang, Yanming; Larson, Richard A.; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Caligiuri, Michael A.; Döhner, Konstanze; Bullinger, Lars; Liu, Paul P.; Delwel, Ruud; Marcucci, Guido; Lowenberg, Bob; Bloomfield, Clara D.; Rowley, Janet D.; Bohlander, Stefan K.; Chen, Jianjun

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To identify a robust prognostic gene expression signature as an independent predictor of survival of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and use it to improve established risk classification. Patients and Methods Four independent sets totaling 499 patients with AML carrying various cytogenetic and molecular abnormalities were used as training sets. Two independent patient sets composed of 825 patients were used as validation sets. Notably, patients from different sets were treated with different protocols, and their gene expression profiles were derived using different microarray platforms. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier methods were used for survival analyses. Results A prognostic signature composed of 24 genes was derived from a meta-analysis of Cox regression values of each gene across the four training sets. In multivariable models, a higher sum value of the 24-gene signature was an independent predictor of shorter overall (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) in both training and validation sets (P < .01). Moreover, this signature could substantially improve the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) risk classification of AML, and patients in three new risk groups classified by the integrated risk classification showed significantly (P < .001) distinct OS and EFS. Conclusion Despite different treatment protocols applied to patients and use of different microarray platforms for expression profiling, a common prognostic gene signature was identified as an independent predictor of survival of patients with AML. The integrated risk classification incorporating this gene signature provides a better framework for risk stratification and outcome prediction than the ELN classification. PMID:23382473

  3. Diagnostic accuracy of conventional or age adjusted D-dimer cut-off values in older patients with suspected venous thromboembolism: systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Geersing, G J; Koek, H L; Zuithoff, Nicolaas P A; Janssen, Kristel J M; Douma, Renée A; van Delden, Johannes J M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B

    2013-01-01

    Objective To review the diagnostic accuracy of D-dimer testing in older patients (>50 years) with suspected venous thromboembolism, using conventional or age adjusted D-dimer cut-off values. Design Systematic review and bivariate random effects meta-analysis. Data sources We searched Medline and Embase for studies published before 21 June 2012 and we contacted the authors of primary studies. Study selection Primary studies that enrolled older patients with suspected venous thromboembolism in whom D-dimer testing, using both conventional (500 µg/L) and age adjusted (age×10 µg/L) cut-off values, and reference testing were performed. For patients with a non-high clinical probability, 2×2 tables were reconstructed and stratified by age category and applied D-dimer cut-off level. Results 13 cohorts including 12 497 patients with a non-high clinical probability were included in the meta-analysis. The specificity of the conventional cut-off value decreased with increasing age, from 57.6% (95% confidence interval 51.4% to 63.6%) in patients aged 51-60 years to 39.4% (33.5% to 45.6%) in those aged 61-70, 24.5% (20.0% to 29.7% in those aged 71-80, and 14.7% (11.3% to 18.6%) in those aged >80. Age adjusted cut-off values revealed higher specificities over all age categories: 62.3% (56.2% to 68.0%), 49.5% (43.2% to 55.8%), 44.2% (38.0% to 50.5%), and 35.2% (29.4% to 41.5%), respectively. Sensitivities of the age adjusted cut-off remained above 97% in all age categories. Conclusions The application of age adjusted cut-off values for D-dimer tests substantially increases specificity without modifying sensitivity, thereby improving the clinical utility of D-dimer testing in patients aged 50 or more with a non-high clinical probability. PMID:23645857

  4. Validation of the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) in patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes: a report from the prospective European LeukaemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) registry.

    PubMed

    de Swart, Louise; Smith, Alex; Johnston, Thomas W; Haase, Detlef; Droste, Jackie; Fenaux, Pierre; Symeonidis, Argiris; Sanz, Guillermo; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Cermák, Jaroslav; Germing, Ulrich; Stauder, Reinhard; Georgescu, Otilia; MacKenzie, Marius; Malcovati, Luca; Holm, Mette S; Almeida, Antonio M; Mądry, Krzysztof; Slama, Borhane; Guerci-Bresler, Agnes; Sanhes, Laurence; Beyne-Rauzy, Odile; Luño, Elisa; Bowen, David; de Witte, Theo

    2015-08-01

    Baseline characteristics, disease-management and outcome of 1000 lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients within the European LeukaemiaNet MDS (EUMDS) Registry are described in conjunction with the validation of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). The EUMDS registry confirmed established prognostic factors, such as age, gender and World Health Organization 2001 classification. Low quality of life (EQ-5D visual analogue scale score) was significantly associated with reduced survival. A high co-morbidity index predicted poor outcome in univariate analyses. The IPSS-R identified a large group of 247 patients with Low (43%) and Very low (23%) risk score within the IPSS intermediate-1 patients. The IPSS-R also identified 32 High or Very high risk patients within the IPSS intermediate-1 patients. IPSS-R was superior to the IPSS for predicting both disease progression and survival. Seventy percent of patients received MDS-specific treatment or supportive care, including red blood cell transfusions (51%), haematopoietic growth factors (58%) and iron chelation therapy (8%), within 2 years of diagnosis; while 30% of the patients only required active monitoring. The IPSS-R proved its utility as a more refined risk stratification tool for the identification of patients with a very good or poor prognosis and in this lower-risk MDS population. PMID:25907546

  5. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  6. Toward IVHM Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walsh, Kevin; Venti, Mike

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the prognostics of Integrated Vehicle Health Management. The contents include: 1) Aircraft Operations-Today's way of doing business; 2) Prognostics; 3) NASA's instrumentation data-system rack; 4) Data mining for IVHM; 5) NASA GRC's C-MAPSS generic engine model; and 6) Concluding thoughts.

  7. Prognostic Significance of NPM1 Mutations in the Absence of FLT3–Internal Tandem Duplication in Older Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia: A SWOG and UK National Cancer Research Institute/Medical Research Council Report

    PubMed Central

    Ostronoff, Fabiana; Othus, Megan; Lazenby, Michelle; Estey, Elihu; Appelbaum, Frederick R.; Evans, Anna; Godwin, John; Gilkes, Amanda; Kopecky, Kenneth J.; Burnett, Alan; List, Alan F.; Fang, Min; Oehler, Vivian G.; Petersdorf, Stephen H.; Pogosova-Agadjanyan, Era L.; Radich, Jerald P.; Willman, Cheryl L.; Meshinchi, Soheil; Stirewalt, Derek L.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Younger patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) harboring NPM1 mutations without FLT3–internal tandem duplications (ITDs; NPM1-positive/FLT3-ITD–negative genotype) are classified as better risk; however, it remains uncertain whether this favorable classification can be applied to older patients with AML with this genotype. Therefore, we examined the impact of age on the prognostic significance of NPM1-positive/FLT3-ITD–negative status in older patients with AML. Patients and Methods Patients with AML age ≥ 55 years treated with intensive chemotherapy as part of Southwest Oncology Gorup (SWOG) and UK National Cancer Research Institute/Medical Research Council (NCRI/MRC) trials were evaluated. A comprehensive analysis first examined 156 patients treated in SWOG trials. Validation analyses then examined 1,258 patients treated in MRC/NCRI trials. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine the impact of age on the prognostic significance of NPM1 mutations, FLT3-ITDs, and the NPM1-positive/FLT3-ITD–negative genotype. Results Patients with AML age 55 to 65 years with NPM1-positive/FLT3-ITD–negative genotype treated in SWOG trials had a significantly improved 2-year overall survival (OS) as compared with those without this genotype (70% v 32%; P < .001). Moreover, patients age 55 to 65 years with NPM1-positive/FLT3-ITD–negative genotype had a significantly improved 2-year OS as compared with those age > 65 years with this genotype (70% v 27%; P < .001); any potential survival benefit of this genotype in patients age > 65 years was marginal (27% v 16%; P = .33). In multivariable analysis, NPM1-positive/FLT3-ITD–negative genotype remained independently associated with an improved OS in patients age 55 to 65 years (P = .002) but not in those age > 65 years (P = .82). These results were confirmed in validation analyses examining the NCRI/MRC patients. Conclusion NPM1-positive/FLT3-ITD–negative genotype remains a relatively

  8. QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Suicide Rates* for Females and Males, by Method(†) - National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2000 and 2014.

    PubMed

    2016-01-01

    From 2000 to 2014, the age-adjusted suicide rate increased from 4.0 to 5.8 per 100,000 for females and from 17.7 to 20.7 for males. Suicide rates by specific method (firearm, poisoning, suffocation, or other methods) also increased, with the greatest increase seen for suicides by suffocation. During the 15-year period, the rate of suicide by suffocation more than doubled for females from 0.7 to 1.6 and increased from 3.4 to 5.6 for males. In 2014, among females, suicide by poisoning had the highest rate (1.9), and among males, suicide by firearm had the highest rate (11.4). PMID:27197046

  9. QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates* for Females Aged 15-44 Years, by the Five Leading Causes of Death(†) - United States, 1999 and 2014.

    PubMed

    2016-01-01

    The age-adjusted death rate for females aged 15-44 years was 5% lower in 2014 (82.1 per 100,000 population) than in 1999 (86.5). Among the five leading causes of death, the age-adjusted rates of three were lower in 2014 than in 1999: cancer (from 19.6 to 15.3, a 22% decline), heart disease (8.9 to 8.2, an 8% decline), and homicide (4.2 to 2.8, a 33% decline). The age-adjusted death rates for two of the five causes were higher in 2014 than in 1999: unintentional injuries (from 17.0 to 20.1, an 18% increase) and suicide (4.8 to 6.5, a 35% increase). Unintentional injuries replaced cancer as the leading cause of death in this demographic group. PMID:27362608

  10. QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates* for Males Aged 15-44 Years, by the Five Leading Causes of Death(†) - United States, 1999 and 2014.

    PubMed

    2016-01-01

    The age-adjusted death rate for males aged 15-44 years was 10% lower in 2014 (156.6 per 100,000 population) than in 1999 (174.1). Among the five leading causes of death, the age-adjusted rates for three were lower in 2014 than in 1999: cancer (from 17.1 to 12.8; 25% decline), heart disease (20.1 to 17.0; 15% decline), and homicide (15.7 to 13.8; 12% decline). The age-adjusted death rates for two of the five causes were higher in 2014 than in 1999: suicide (20.1 to 22.5; 12% increase), and unintentional injuries (from 48.7 to 51.0; 5% increase). PMID:27513718

  11. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  12. Clinical, Biologic, and Prognostic Differences on the Basis of Primary Tumor Site in Neuroblastoma: A Report From the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group Project

    PubMed Central

    Vo, Kieuhoa T.; Matthay, Katherine K.; Neuhaus, John; London, Wendy B.; Hero, Barbara; Ambros, Peter F.; Nakagawara, Akira; Miniati, Doug; Wheeler, Kate; Pearson, Andrew D.J.; Cohn, Susan L.; DuBois, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Neuroblastoma (NB) is a heterogeneous tumor arising from sympathetic tissues. The impact of primary tumor site in influencing the heterogeneity of NB remains unclear. Patients and Methods Children younger than age 21 years diagnosed with NB or ganglioneuroblastoma between 1990 and 2002 and with known primary site were identified from the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group database. Data were compared between sites with respect to clinical and biologic features, as well as event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS). Results Among 8,369 children, 47% had adrenal tumors. All evaluated clinical and biologic variables differed statistically between primary sites. The features that were > 10% discrepant between sites were stage 4 disease, MYCN amplification, elevated ferritin, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, and segmental chromosomal aberrations, all of which were more frequent in adrenal versus nonadrenal tumors (P < .001). Adrenal tumors were more likely than nonadrenal tumors (adjusted odds ratio, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.67 to 2.63; P < .001) and thoracic tumors were less likely than nonthoracic tumors (adjusted odds ratio, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.39; P < .001) to have MYCN amplification after controlling for age, stage, and histologic grade. EFS and OS differed significantly according to the primary site (P < .001 for both comparisons). After controlling for age, MYCN status, and stage, patients with adrenal tumors had higher risk for events (hazard ratio, 1.13 compared with nonadrenal tumors; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.23; P = .008), and patients with thoracic tumors had lower risk for events (HR, 0.79 compared with nonthoracic; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.92; P = .003). Conclusion Clinical and biologic features show important differences by NB primary site, with adrenal and thoracic sites associated with inferior and superior survival, respectively. Future studies will need to investigate the biologic origin of these differences. PMID:25154816

  13. Prognostic Analysis of the Tactical Quiet Generator

    SciTech Connect

    Hively, Lee M

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Army needs prognostic analysis of mission-critical equipment to enable condition-based maintenance before failure. ORNL has developed and patented prognostic technology that quantifies condition change from noisy, multi-channel, time-serial data. This report describes an initial application of ORNL's prognostic technology to the Army's Tactical Quiet Generator (TQG), which is designed to operate continuously at 10 kW. Less-than-full power operation causes unburned fuel to accumulate on internal components, thereby degrading operation and eventually leading to failure. The first objective of this work was identification of easily-acquired, process-indicative data. Two types of appropriate data were identified, namely output-electrical current and voltage, plus tri-axial acceleration (vibration). The second objective of this work was data quality analysis to avoid the garbage-in-garbage-out syndrome. Quality analysis identified more than 10% of the current data as having consecutive values that are constant, or that saturate at an extreme value. Consequently, the electrical data were not analyzed further. The third objective was condition-change analysis to indicate operational stress under non-ideal operation and machine degradation in proportion to the operational stress. Application of ORNL's novel phase-space dissimilarity measures to the vibration power quantified the rising operational stress in direct proportion to the less-than-full-load power. We conclude that ORNL's technology is an excellent candidate to meet the U.S. Army's need for equipment prognostication.

  14. Delineating outcomes of patients with diffuse large b cell lymphoma using the national comprehensive cancer network-international prognostic index and positron emission tomography-defined remission status; a population-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Bishton, Mark J; Hughes, Simon; Richardson, Faith; James, Eleanor; Bessell, Eric; Sovani, Vishakha; Ganatra, Rakesh; Haynes, Andrew P; McMillan, Andrew K; Fox, Christopher P

    2016-01-01

    The recently devised National Comprehensive Cancer Network International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI) appears superior to the revised IPI (R-IPI) in delineating outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. We examined the outcome of a population-based cohort of 223 consecutive patients treated with R-CHOP (rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisolone) or R-CHOP-like immuno-chemotherapy between January 2005 and December 2011 by both the NCCN-IPI and R-IPI, and further stratified outcome by the achievement of both computerized tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET)-CT complete remission (CR), with the latter reassessed using blinded central review by an independent nuclear medicine and radiology specialist. The NCCN-IPI was superior to the R-IPI in identifying patients at very high risk of systemic and/or central nervous system relapse. Notably, both the NCCN-IPI and the R-IPI remained strongly predictive of relapse irrespective of CT or PET-defined remission status following R-CHOP. Patients with high-risk NCCN-IPI scores (≥6) have a dismal outcome following R-CHOP therapy regardless of PET-defined response to R-CHOP. Moreover, such patients appear refractory to salvage chemotherapy and thus require alternative therapeutic approaches, although age and performance status may, for many patients, preclude the safe delivery of a primary intensified regimen. By contrast, patients with NCCN-IPI 1-5 who achieve PET-CR following R-CHOP have excellent outcomes and may merit reduced follow up frequency. PMID:26577576

  15. Highlights from the 14th St Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference 2015 in Vienna: Dealing with classification, prognostication, and prediction refinement to personalize the treatment of patients with early breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Esposito, Angela; Criscitiello, Carmen; Curigliano, Giuseppe

    2015-01-01

    The refinement of the classification, the risk of relapse and the prediction of response to multidisciplinary treatment for early breast cancer has been the major theme of the 14th St Gallen International Breast Cancer Consensus Conference 2015. The meeting, held in Vienna, assembled 3500–4000 participants from 134 countries worldwide. It culminated, on the final day, with the International Consensus Session, delivered by 40–50 of the world’s most experienced opinion leaders in the field of breast cancer treatment. The panelist addressed the “semantic” classification of breast cancer subtypes by pathology-based biomarkers (e.g. estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and HER2) vs genomic classifiers. They also refined the biomarker prognostication dissecting the impact of the various gene signatures and pathologic variables in predicting the outcome of patients with early breast cancer in terms of early and late relapse. Finally they addressed the challenges stemming from the intra- and inter-observer variability in the assessment of pathologic variables and the role of gene signatures for the prediction of response to specific therapeutic approach such as endocrine therapy and chemotherapy and for personalizing local treatment of patients with early breast cancer. The vast majority of the questions asked during the consensus were about controversial issues. The opinion of the panel members has been used to implement guidance for treatment choice. This is the unique feature of the St. Gallen Consensus, ensuring that the resulting recommendations will take due cognizance of the variable resource limitations in different countries. Information derived from evidence based medicine and large meta-analyses is of obvious and enormous value. The weakness of this approach is that it gives particular weight to older trials (which have accumulated more event endpoints) and is frequently unable to collect sufficient detail on the patients and tumors in the trials

  16. Oncogene activation and tumor suppressor gene inactivation find their sites of expression in the changes in time and space of the age-adjusted cancer incidence rate.

    PubMed

    Kodama, M; Kodama, T; Murakami, M

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of the present investigation is to elucidate the relation between the distribution pattern of the age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) changes in time and space of 15 tumors of bothe sexes and the locations of centers of centripetal-(oncogene type) and centrifugal-(tumoe suppressor gene type) forces. The fitness of the observed log AAIR data sets to the oncogene type- and the tumor suppressor gene type-equilibrium models and the locations of 2 force centers were calculated by applying the least square method of Gauss to log AAIR pair data series with and without topological data manipulations, which are so designed as to let log AAIR pair data series fit to 2 variant (x, y) frameworks, the Rect-coordinates and the Para-coordinates. The 2 variant (x, y) coordinates are defined each as an (x, y) framework with its X axis crossed at a right angle to the regression line of the original log AAIR data (the Rect-coordinates) and as another framework with its X axis run in parallel with the regression line of the original log AAIR pair data series (the Para-coordinates). The fitness test of log AAIR data series to either the oncogene activation type equilibrium model (r = -1.000) or the tumor suppressor gene inactivation type (r = 1.000) was conducted for each of the male-female type pair data and the female-male type data, for each of log AAIR changes in space and log AAIR changes in time, and for each of the 3 (x, y) frameworks in a given neoplasia of both sexes. The results obtained are given as follows: 1) The positivity rates of the fitness test to the oncogene type equilibrium model and the tumor suppressor gene type model were each 63.3% and 56.7% with the log AAIR changes in space, and 73.3% and 73.3% with log AAIR changes in time, as tested in 15 human neoplasias of both sexes. 2) Evidence was presented to indicate that the clearance of oncogene activation and tumor suppressor gene inactivation is the sine qua non premise of carciniogenesis. 3) The r

  17. Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Methods Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. Results The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. Conclusion The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL. PMID:23638998

  18. Analysis of prognostic factors and comparison of prognostic scores in peripheral T cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified: a single-institution study of 105 Chinese patients.

    PubMed

    Xu, Pengpeng; Yu, Dong; Wang, Li; Shen, Yang; Shen, Zhixiang; Zhao, Weili

    2015-02-01

    Peripheral T cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified (PTCL-NOS) is a heterogeneous subtype of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. This study aims to better define the prognostic factors and compare the predictive value of the prognostic scores in Chinese patients with PTCL-NOS. One hundred and five patients diagnosed as PTCL-NOS from our institution were retrospectively studied and grouped according to four previously described prognostic scores [International Prognostic Index (IPI), Prognostic Index for PTCL-NOS (PIT), modified PIT (m-PIT), and International PTCL Project (IPTCLP)]. In addition to clinical parameters, peripheral lymphopenia and thrombocytopenia, serum Epstein-Barr virus positivity, and tumor Ki-67 were significantly associated with poor disease outcome. Multivariate analysis revealed that age >60 years, poor performance status, elevated lactic dehydrogenase, and bone marrow involvement were independent adverse variables for survival. All prognostic scores were successful for survival estimation. Risk subgroups in IPI and PIT could be further discriminated by platelet count (IPTCLP factor) and Ki-67 (m-PIT factor), respectively. Together, patient- and tumor-specific characteristics may be incorporated in risk stratification of PTCL-NOS patients. The prognostic scores could be mutually active to improve their predictive value of disease outcome. PMID:25193354

  19. Systematic review and validation of prognostic models in liver transplantation.

    PubMed

    Jacob, Matthew; Lewsey, James D; Sharpin, Carlos; Gimson, Alexander; Rela, Mohammed; van der Meulen, Jan H P

    2005-07-01

    A model that can accurately predict post-liver transplant mortality would be useful for clinical decision making, would help to provide patients with prognostic information, and would facilitate fair comparisons of surgical performance between transplant units. A systematic review of the literature was carried out to assess the quality of the studies that developed and validated prognostic models for mortality after liver transplantation and to validate existing models in a large data set of patients transplanted in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland between March 1994 and September 2003. Five prognostic model papers were identified. The quality of the development and validation of all prognostic models was suboptimal according to an explicit assessment tool of the internal, external, and statistical validity, model evaluation, and practicality. The discriminatory ability of the identified models in the UK and Ireland data set was poor (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve always smaller than 0.7 for adult populations). Due to the poor quality of the reporting, the methodology used for the development of the model could not always be determined. In conclusion, these findings demonstrate that currently available prognostic models of mortality after liver transplantation can have only a limited role in clinical practice, audit, and research. PMID:15973726

  20. Mutational profile and prognostic significance of TP53 in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients treated with R-CHOP: report from an International DLBCL Rituximab-CHOP Consortium Program Study.

    PubMed

    Xu-Monette, Zijun Y; Wu, Lin; Visco, Carlo; Tai, Yu Chuan; Tzankov, Alexander; Liu, Wei-min; Montes-Moreno, Santiago; Dybkaer, Karen; Chiu, April; Orazi, Attilio; Zu, Youli; Bhagat, Govind; Richards, Kristy L; Hsi, Eric D; Zhao, X Frank; Choi, William W L; Zhao, Xiaoying; van Krieken, J Han; Huang, Qin; Huh, Jooryung; Ai, Weiyun; Ponzoni, Maurilio; Ferreri, Andrés J M; Zhou, Fan; Kahl, Brad S; Winter, Jane N; Xu, Wei; Li, Jianyong; Go, Ronald S; Li, Yong; Piris, Miguel A; Møller, Michael B; Miranda, Roberto N; Abruzzo, Lynne V; Medeiros, L Jeffrey; Young, Ken H

    2012-11-01

    TP53 mutation is an independent marker of poor prognosis in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treated with cyclophosphamide, hydroxydaunorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (CHOP) therapy. However, its prognostic value in the rituximab immunochemotherapy era remains undefined. In the present study of a large cohort of DLBCL patients treated with rituximab plus CHOP (R-CHOP), we show that those with TP53 mutations had worse overall and progression-free survival compared with those without. Unlike earlier studies of patients treated with CHOP, TP53 mutation has predictive value for R-CHOP-treated patients with either the germinal center B-cell or activated B-cell DLBCL subtypes. Furthermore, we identified the loop-sheet-helix and L3 motifs in the DNA-binding domain to be the most critical structures for maintaining p53 function. In contrast, TP53 deletion and loss of heterozygosity did not confer worse survival. If gene mutation data are not available, immunohistochemical analysis showing > 50% cells expressing p53 protein is a useful surrogate and was able to stratify patients with significantly different prognoses. We conclude that assessment of TP53 mutation status is important for stratifying R-CHOP-treated patients into distinct prognostic subsets and has significant value in the design of future therapeutic strategies. PMID:22955915

  1. Heart failure prognostic model.

    PubMed

    Axente, L; Sinescu, C; Bazacliu, G

    2011-05-15

    Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly, disabling and deadly syndrome. Heart failure is a progressive disease characterized by high prevalence in society, significantly reducing physical and mental health, frequent hospitalization and high mortality (50% of the patients survive up to 4 years after the diagnosis, the annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). The purpose of this study is to develop a prognostic model with easily obtainable variables for patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS. Our lot included 101 non-consecutive hospitalized patients with heart failure diagnosis. It included 49.5% women having the average age of 71.23 years (starting from 40 up to 91 years old) and the roughly estimated period for monitoring was 35.1 months (5-65 months). Survival data were available for all patients and the median survival duration was of 44.0 months. A large number of variables (demographic, etiologic, co morbidity, clinical, echocardiograph, ECG, laboratory and medication) were evaluated. We performed a complex statistical analysis, studying: survival curve, cumulative hazard, hazard function, lifetime distribution and density function, meaning residual life time, Ln S (t) vs. t and Ln(H) t vs. Ln (t). The Cox multiple regression model was used in order to determine the major factors that allow the forecasting survival and their regression coefficients: age (0.0369), systolic blood pressure (-0.0219), potassium (0.0570), sex (-0.3124) and the acute myocardial infarction (0.2662). DISCUSSION. Our model easily incorporates obtainable variables that may be available in any hospital, accurately predicting survival of the heart failure patients and enables risk stratification in a few hours after the patients' presentation. Our model is derived from a sample of patients hospitalized in an emergency department of cardiology, some with major life-altering co morbidities. The benefit of being aware of the prognosis of these patients with high risk is extremely

  2. Heart failure prognostic model

    PubMed Central

    Axente, L; Sinescu, C; Bazacliu, G

    2011-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly, disabling and deadly syndrome. Heart failure is a progressive disease characterized by high prevalence in society, significantly reducing physical and mental health, frequent hospitalization and high mortality (50% of the patients survive up to 4 years after the diagnosis, the annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). The purpose of this study is to develop a prognostic model with easily obtainable variables for patients with heart failure. Methods and Results. Our lot included 101 non–consecutive hospitalized patients with heart failure diagnosis. It included 49,5% women having the average age of 71.23 years (starting from 40 up to 91 years old) and the roughly estimated period for monitoring was 35.1 months (5–65 months). Survival data were available for all patients and the median survival duration was of 44.0 months. A large number of variables (demographic, etiologic, co morbidity, clinical, echocardiograph, ECG, laboratory and medication) were evaluated. We performed a complex statistical analysis, studying: survival curve, cumulative hazard, hazard function, lifetime distribution and density function, meaning residual life time, Ln S (t) vs. t and Ln(H) t vs. Ln (t). The Cox multiple regression model was used in order to determine the major factors that allow the forecasting survival and their regression coefficients: age (0.0369), systolic blood pressure (–0.0219), potassium (0.0570), sex (–0.3124) and the acute myocardial infarction (0.2662). Discussion. Our model easily incorporates obtainable variables that may be available in any hospital, accurately predicting survival of the heart failure patients and enables risk stratification in a few hours after the patients' presentation. Our model is derived from a sample of patients hospitalized in an emergency department of cardiology, some with major life–altering co morbidities. The benefit of being aware of the prognosis of these patients with high risk is

  3. Towards Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan; Biswas, Gautam; Goegel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    A remaining useful life prediction algorithm and degradation model for electrolytic capacitors is presented. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. In particular, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses are presented. The capacitors used in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors.

  4. Assessing Planning Ability Across the Adult Life Span: Population-Representative and Age-Adjusted Reliability Estimates for the Tower of London (TOL-F).

    PubMed

    Kaller, Christoph P; Debelak, Rudolf; Köstering, Lena; Egle, Johanna; Rahm, Benjamin; Wild, Philipp S; Blettner, Maria; Beutel, Manfred E; Unterrainer, Josef M

    2016-03-01

    Planning ahead the consequences of future actions is a prototypical executive function. In clinical and experimental neuropsychology, disc-transfer tasks like the Tower of London (TOL) are commonly used for the assessment of planning ability. Previous psychometric evaluations have, however, yielded a poor reliability of measuring planning performance with the TOL. Based on theory-grounded task analyses and a systematic problem selection, the computerized TOL-Freiburg version (TOL-F) was developed to improve the task's psychometric properties for diagnostic applications. Here, we report reliability estimates for the TOL-F from two large samples collected in Mainz, Germany (n = 3,770; 40-80 years) and in Vienna, Austria (n = 830; 16-84 years). Results show that planning accuracy on the TOL-F possesses an adequate internal consistency and split-half reliability (>0.7) that are stable across the adult life span while the TOL-F covers a broad range of graded difficulty even in healthy adults, making it suitable for both research and clinical application. PMID:26715472

  5. Prognostic factors in early-stage leiomyosarcoma of the uterus.

    PubMed

    Pelmus, Manuela; Penault-Llorca, Frédérique; Guillou, Louis; Collin, Françoise; Bertrand, Gérard; Trassard, Martine; Leroux, Agnès; Floquet, Anne; Stoeckle, Eberhard; Thomas, Laurence; MacGrogan, Gaëtan

    2009-04-01

    Uterine leiomyosarcomas (LMSs) are rare cancers representing less than 1% of all uterine malignancies. Clinical International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage is the most important prognostic factor. Other significant prognostic factors, especially for early stages, are difficult to establish because most of the published studies have included localized and extra-pelvian sarcomas. The aim of our study was to search for significant prognostic factors in clinical stage I and II uterine LMS. The pathologic features of 108 uterine LMS including 72 stage I and II lesions were reviewed using standardized criteria. The prognostic significance of different pathologic features was assessed. The median follow-up in the whole group was 64 months (range, 6-223 months). The 5-year overall survival (OS) and metastasis-free interval and local relapse-free interval rates in the whole group and early-stage group (FIGO stages I and II) were 40% and 57%, 42% and 50%, 56% and 62%, respectively. Clinical FIGO stage was the most important prognostic factor for OS in the whole group (P = 4 x 10). In the stage I and II group, macroscopic circumscription was the most significant factor predicting OS (P = 0.001). In the same group, mitotic score and vascular invasion were associated with metastasis-free interval (P = 0.03 and P = 0.04, respectively). Uterine LMSs diagnosed using standardized criteria have a poor prognosis, and clinical FIGO stage is an ominous prognostic factor. In early-stage LMS, pathologic features such as mitotic score, vascular invasion, and tumor circumscription significantly impact patient outcome. PMID:19407564

  6. Cytogenetic Prognostication Within Medulloblastoma Subgroups

    PubMed Central

    Shih, David J.H.; Northcott, Paul A.; Remke, Marc; Korshunov, Andrey; Ramaswamy, Vijay; Kool, Marcel; Luu, Betty; Yao, Yuan; Wang, Xin; Dubuc, Adrian M.; Garzia, Livia; Peacock, John; Mack, Stephen C.; Wu, Xiaochong; Rolider, Adi; Morrissy, A. Sorana; Cavalli, Florence M.G.; Jones, David T.W.; Zitterbart, Karel; Faria, Claudia C.; Schüller, Ulrich; Kren, Leos; Kumabe, Toshihiro; Tominaga, Teiji; Shin Ra, Young; Garami, Miklós; Hauser, Peter; Chan, Jennifer A.; Robinson, Shenandoah; Bognár, László; Klekner, Almos; Saad, Ali G.; Liau, Linda M.; Albrecht, Steffen; Fontebasso, Adam; Cinalli, Giuseppe; De Antonellis, Pasqualino; Zollo, Massimo; Cooper, Michael K.; Thompson, Reid C.; Bailey, Simon; Lindsey, Janet C.; Di Rocco, Concezio; Massimi, Luca; Michiels, Erna M.C.; Scherer, Stephen W.; Phillips, Joanna J.; Gupta, Nalin; Fan, Xing; Muraszko, Karin M.; Vibhakar, Rajeev; Eberhart, Charles G.; Fouladi, Maryam; Lach, Boleslaw; Jung, Shin; Wechsler-Reya, Robert J.; Fèvre-Montange, Michelle; Jouvet, Anne; Jabado, Nada; Pollack, Ian F.; Weiss, William A.; Lee, Ji-Yeoun; Cho, Byung-Kyu; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Leonard, Jeffrey R.; Rubin, Joshua B.; de Torres, Carmen; Lavarino, Cinzia; Mora, Jaume; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Tabori, Uri; Olson, James M.; Gajjar, Amar; Packer, Roger J.; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pomeroy, Scott L.; French, Pim J.; Kloosterhof, Nanne K.; Kros, Johan M.; Van Meir, Erwin G.; Clifford, Steven C.; Bourdeaut, Franck; Delattre, Olivier; Doz, François F.; Hawkins, Cynthia E.; Malkin, David; Grajkowska, Wieslawa A.; Perek-Polnik, Marta; Bouffet, Eric; Rutka, James T.; Pfister, Stefan M.; Taylor, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Medulloblastoma comprises four distinct molecular subgroups: WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4. Current medulloblastoma protocols stratify patients based on clinical features: patient age, metastatic stage, extent of resection, and histologic variant. Stark prognostic and genetic differences among the four subgroups suggest that subgroup-specific molecular biomarkers could improve patient prognostication. Patients and Methods Molecular biomarkers were identified from a discovery set of 673 medulloblastomas from 43 cities around the world. Combined risk stratification models were designed based on clinical and cytogenetic biomarkers identified by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses. Identified biomarkers were tested using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) on a nonoverlapping medulloblastoma tissue microarray (n = 453), with subsequent validation of the risk stratification models. Results Subgroup information improves the predictive accuracy of a multivariable survival model compared with clinical biomarkers alone. Most previously published cytogenetic biomarkers are only prognostic within a single medulloblastoma subgroup. Profiling six FISH biomarkers (GLI2, MYC, chromosome 11 [chr11], chr14, 17p, and 17q) on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues, we can reliably and reproducibly identify very low-risk and very high-risk patients within SHH, Group 3, and Group 4 medulloblastomas. Conclusion Combining subgroup and cytogenetic biomarkers with established clinical biomarkers substantially improves patient prognostication, even in the context of heterogeneous clinical therapies. The prognostic significance of most molecular biomarkers is restricted to a specific subgroup. We have identified a small panel of cytogenetic biomarkers that reliably identifies very high-risk and very low-risk groups of patients, making it an excellent tool for selecting patients for therapy intensification and therapy de-escalation in future clinical trials. PMID

  7. Prognostic factors in prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Braeckman, Johan; Michielsen, Dirk

    2007-01-01

    In the nineteenth century the main goal of medicine was predictive: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted to cure the disease. Since the twentieth century, the word prognosis has also been used in nonmedical contexts, for example in corporate finance or elections. The most accurate form of prognosis is achieved statistically. Based on different prognostic factors it should be possible to tell patients how they are expected to do after prostate cancer has been diagnosed and how different treatments may change this outcome. A prognosis is a prediction. The word prognosis comes from the Greek word (see text) and means foreknowing. In the nineteenth century this was the main goal of medicine: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted towards seeking a cure. Prognostic factors in (prostate) cancer are defined as "variables that can account for some of the heterogeneity associated with the expected course and outcome of a disease". Bailey defined prognosis as "a reasoned forecast concerning the course, pattern, progression, duration, and end of the disease. Prognostic factors are not only essential to understand the natural history and the course of the disease, but also to predict possible different outcomes of different treatments or perhaps no treatment at all. This is extremely important in a disease like prostate cancer where there is clear evidence that a substantial number of cases discovered by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing are unlikely ever to become clinically significant, not to mention mortal. Furthermore, prognostic factors are of paramount importance for correct interpretation of clinical trials and for the construction of future trials. Finally, according to WHO national screening committee criteria for implementing a national screening programme, widely accepted prognostic factors must be defined before

  8. Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Bhaskar; Celaya, Jose R.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2013-01-01

    Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  9. Neurological prognostication after cardiac arrest

    PubMed Central

    Sandroni, Claudio; Geocadin, Romergryko G.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Prediction of neurological prognosis in patients who are comatose after successful resuscitation from cardiac arrest remains difficult. Previous guidelines recommended ocular reflexes, somatosensory evoked potentials and serum biomarkers for predicting poor outcome within 72h from cardiac arrest. However, these guidelines were based on patients not treated with targeted temperature management and did not appropriately address important biases in literature. Recent findings Recent evidence reviews detected important limitations in prognostication studies, such as low precision and, most importantly, lack of blinding, which may have caused a self-fulfilling prophecy and overestimated the specificity of index tests. Maintenance of targeted temperature using sedatives and muscle relaxants may interfere with clinical examination, making assessment of neurological status before 72 h or more after cardiac arrest unreliable. Summary No index predicts poor neurological outcome after cardiac arrest with absolute certainty. Prognostic evaluation should start not earlier than 72 h after ROSC and only after major confounders have been excluded so that reliable clinical examination can be made. Multimodality appears to be the most reasonable approach for prognostication after cardiac arrest. PMID:25922894

  10. Critical Assessment of Clinical Prognostic Tools in Melanoma.

    PubMed

    Mahar, Alyson L; Compton, Carolyn; Halabi, Susan; Hess, Kenneth R; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Scolyer, Richard A; Groome, Patti A

    2016-09-01

    The 7th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) melanoma staging system classifies patients according to prognosis. Significant within-stage heterogeneity remains and the inclusion of additional clinicopathologic and other host- and tumor-based prognostic factors have been proposed. Clinical prognostic tools have been developed for use in clinical practice to refine survival estimates. Little is known about the comparative features of tools in melanoma. We performed a systematic search of the scientific published literature for clinical prognostic tools in melanoma and web-based resources. A priori criteria were used to evaluate their quality and clinical relevance, and included intended clinical use, model development approaches, validation strategies, and performance metrics. We identified 17 clinical prognostic tools for primary cutaneous melanoma. Patients with stages I-III and T1 or thin melanoma were the most frequently considered populations. Seventy-five percent of tools were developed using data collected from patients diagnosed in 2006 or earlier, and the well-established factors of tumor thickness, ulceration, and age were included in 70 % of tools. Internal validity using cross-validation or bootstrapping techniques was performed for two tools only. Fewer than half were evaluated for external validity; however, when done, the appropriate statistical methodology was applied and results indicated good generalizability. Several clinical prognostic tools have the potential to refine survival estimates for individual melanoma patients; however, there is a great opportunity to improve these tools and to foster the development of new, validated tools by the inclusion of contemporary clinicopathological covariates and by using improved statistical and methodological approaches. PMID:27052645

  11. Renal tumors: diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Tan, Puay Hoon; Cheng, Liang; Rioux-Leclercq, Nathalie; Merino, Maria J; Netto, George; Reuter, Victor E; Shen, Steven S; Grignon, David J; Montironi, Rodolfo; Egevad, Lars; Srigley, John R; Delahunt, Brett; Moch, Holger

    2013-10-01

    The International Society of Urological Pathology convened a consensus conference on renal cancer, preceded by an online survey, to address issues relating to the diagnosis and reporting of renal neoplasia. In this report, the role of biomarkers in the diagnosis and assessment of prognosis of renal tumors is addressed. In particular we focused upon the use of immunohistochemical markers and the approach to specific differential diagnostic scenarios. We enquired whether cytogenetic and molecular tools were applied in practice and asked for views on the perceived prognostic role of biomarkers. Both the survey and conference voting results demonstrated a high degree of consensus in participants' responses regarding prognostic/predictive markers and molecular techniques, whereas it was apparent that biomarkers for these purposes remained outside the diagnostic realm pending clinical validation. Although no individual antibody or panel of antibodies reached consensus for classifying renal tumors, or for confirming renal metastatic disease, it was noted from the online survey that 87% of respondents used immunohistochemistry to subtype renal tumors sometimes or occasionally, and a majority (87%) used immunohistochemical markers (Pax 2 or Pax 8, renal cell carcinoma [RCC] marker, panel of pan-CK, CK7, vimentin, and CD10) in confirming the diagnosis of metastatic RCC. There was consensus that immunohistochemistry should be used for histologic subtyping and applied before reaching a diagnosis of unclassified RCC. At the conference, there was consensus that TFE3 and TFEB analysis ought to be requested when RCC was diagnosed in a young patient or when histologic appearances were suggestive of the translocation subtype; whereas Pax 2 and/or Pax 8 were considered to be the most useful markers in the diagnosis of a renal primary. PMID:24025522

  12. Long term prognostic utility of coronary CT angiography in patients with no modifiable coronary artery disease risk factors: Results from the 5 year follow-up of the CONFIRM International Multicenter Registry

    PubMed Central

    Cheruvu, Chaitu; Precious, Bruce; Naoum, Christopher; Blanke, Philipp; Ahmadi, Amir; Soon, Jeanette; Arepalli, Chesnaldey; Gransar, Heidi; Achenbach, Stephan; Berman, Daniel S.; Budoff, Matthew J.; Callister, Tracy Q.; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H.; Cademartiri, Filippo; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Marquez, Hugo; DeLago, Augustin; Villines, Todd C.; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Shaw, Leslee J.; Kaufmann, Philipp A.; Cury, Ricardo C.; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Kim, Yong-Jin; Maffei, Erica; Raff, Gilbert; Pontone, Gianluca; Andreini, Daniele; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Min, James K.; Leipsic, Jonathon

    2016-01-01

    Background Coronary computed tomography angiography (coronary CTA) can prognosticate outcomes in patients without modifiable risk factors over medium term follow-up. This ability was driven by major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Objective Determine if coronary CTA could discriminate risk of mortality with longer term follow-up. In addition we sought to determine the long-term relationship to MACE. Methods From 12 centers, 1884 patients undergoing coronary CTA without prior coronary artery disease (CAD) or any modifiable CAD risk factors were identified. The presence of CAD was classified as none (0% stenosis), mild (1% to 49% stenosis) and obstructive (≥50% stenosis severity). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint was MACE. MACE was defined as the combination of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and late target vessel revascularization (>90 days). Results Mean age was 55.6 ± 14.5 years. At mean 5.6 ± 1.3 years follow-up, 145(7.7%) deaths occurred. All-cause mortality demonstrated a dose-response relationship to the severity and number of coronary vessels exhibiting CAD. Increased mortality was observed for >1 segment non-obstructive CAD (hazard ratio [HR]:1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–2.79; p = 0.025), obstructive 1&2 vessel CAD (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.08–2.71; p = 0.023) and 3-vessel or left main CAD (HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.57–5.23; p = 0.001). Both obstructive CAD (HR: 6.63; 95% CI: 3.91–11.26; p < 0.001) and non-obstructive CAD (HR: 2.20; 95% CI: 1.31–3.67; p = 0.003) predicted MACE with increased hazard associated with increasing CAD severity; 5.60% in no CAD, 13.24% in non-obstructive and 36.28% in obstructive CAD, p < 0.001 for trend. Conclusions In individuals being assessed for CAD with no modifiable risk factors, all-cause mortality in the long term (>5 years) was predicted by the presence of more than 1 segment of non-obstructive plaque, obstructive 1- or 2-vessel CAD and 3

  13. Prognostic value of sarcopenia in liver surgery.

    PubMed

    Cornet, M; Lim, C; Salloum, C; Lazzati, A; Compagnon, P; Pascal, G; Azoulay, D

    2015-11-01

    Current knowledge indicates that malnutrition increases the rate of post-operative complications, particularly respiratory and infectious, after major surgery. Almost all liver surgery is performed in patients with cancer, a factor that increases the risk of malnutrition. The primary risk factors for post-operative complications are pre-operative hypo-albuminemia and a body mass index less than 20 kg/m(2). To improve the prediction of complications in these patients, some teams have suggested measurement of muscle thickness by computed tomography. Muscular mass can thus be quantified by measuring the total surface of the psoas muscle or the total surface of all muscles (i.e. external and internal oblique, transverse, psoas and paravertebral muscles) seen on an axial CT slice at L3. As well, data exist suggesting that sarcopenia is an independent predictive factor of post-operative morbidity and poor long-term survival after resection for cancer. Nonetheless, the literature on the subject is limited, there are no standardized definitions for sarcopenia, and the need of special software to calculate the surfaces limits its usefulness. Lastly, there are little if any data concerning the nutritional or pharmacologic means to treat sarcopenia. This update, based on a literature review, deals with the value and the prognostic impact of sarcopenia in surgery for liver tumors. The current definition of sarcopenia, validated internationally, the methods of measurement, and the consequences of sarcopenia on the outcome of liver resections are detailed in this review. PMID:26476674

  14. Distilling the Verification Process for Prognostics Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil; Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The goal of prognostics and health management (PHM) systems is to ensure system safety, and reduce downtime and maintenance costs. It is important that a PHM system is verified and validated before it can be successfully deployed. Prognostics algorithms are integral parts of PHM systems. This paper investigates a systematic process of verification of such prognostics algorithms. To this end, first, this paper distinguishes between technology maturation and product development. Then, the paper describes the verification process for a prognostics algorithm as it moves up to higher maturity levels. This process is shown to be an iterative process where verification activities are interleaved with validation activities at each maturation level. In this work, we adopt the concept of technology readiness levels (TRLs) to represent the different maturity levels of a prognostics algorithm. It is shown that at each TRL, the verification of a prognostics algorithm depends on verifying the different components of the algorithm according to the requirements laid out by the PHM system that adopts this prognostics algorithm. Finally, using simplified examples, the systematic process for verifying a prognostics algorithm is demonstrated as the prognostics algorithm moves up TRLs.

  15. Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Certo, Joseph M.; Handschuh, Robert F.; Dimofte, Florin

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a new Hybrid Bearing Prognostic Test Rig to evaluate the performance of sensors and algorithms in predicting failures of rolling element bearings for aeronautics and space applications. The failure progression of both conventional and hybrid (ceramic rolling elements, metal races) bearings can be tested from fault initiation to total failure. The effects of different lubricants on bearing life can also be evaluated. Test conditions monitored and recorded during the test include load, oil temperature, vibration, and oil debris. New diagnostic research instrumentation will also be evaluated for hybrid bearing damage detection. This paper summarizes the capabilities of this new test rig.

  16. Prognostic factors in lupus nephritis.

    PubMed

    Mok, C C

    2005-01-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a heterogeneous disorder and its renal manifestations are protean. The course and prognosis of lupus nephritis is dependent on a large number of demographic, histopathological, serological, racial, socioeconomic and time dependent factors. Moreover, the initial and maintenance therapeutic regimens may also influence the long term renal outcome. This article reviews the important prognostic factors that have been reported in literature. The management strategy of lupus nephritis should be individualized and based on a composite of these parameters. PMID:15732286

  17. Prognostic Analysis System and Methods of Operation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacKey, Ryan M. E. (Inventor); Sneddon, Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A prognostic analysis system and methods of operating the system are provided. In particular, a prognostic analysis system for the analysis of physical system health applicable to mechanical, electrical, chemical and optical systems and methods of operating the system are described herein.

  18. Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, I.

    2014-01-01

    Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

  19. Online Monitoring to Enable Improved Diagnostics, Prognostics and Maintenance

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Leonard J.

    2011-02-01

    For both existing and new plant designs there are increasing opportunities and needs for the application of advanced online surveillance, diagnostic and prognostic techniques. These methods can continuously monitor and assess the health of nuclear power plant systems and components. The added effectiveness of such programs has the potential to enable holistic plant management, and minimize exposure to future and unknown risks. The 'NDE & On-line Monitoring' activities within the Advanced Instrumentation, Information and Control Systems (II&CS) Pathway are developing R&D to establish advanced condition monitoring and prognostics technologies to understand and predict future phenomena, derived from plant aging in systems, structures, and components (SSC). This research includes utilization of the enhanced functionality and system condition awareness that becomes available through the application of digital technologies at existing nuclear power plants for online monitoring and prognostics. The current state-of-the-art for on-line monitoring applied to active components (eg pumps, valves, motors) and passive structure (eg core internals, primary piping, pressure vessel, concrete, cables, buried pipes) is being reviewed. This includes looking at the current deployment of systems that monitor reactor noise, acoustic signals and vibration in various forms, leak monitoring, and now increasingly condition-based maintenance (CBM) for active components. The NDE and on-line monitoring projects are designed to look beyond locally monitored CBM. Current trends include centralized plant monitoring of SSC, potential fleet-based CBM and technology that will enable operation and maintenance to be performed with limited on-site staff. Attention is also moving to systems that use online monitoring to permit longer term operation (LTO), including a prognostic or predictive element that estimates a remaining useful life (RUL). Many, if not all, active components (pumps, valves, motors

  20. Acute pancreatitis: prognostic value of CT

    SciTech Connect

    Balthazar, E.J.; Ranson, J.H.C.; Naidich, D.P.; Megibow, A.J.; Caccavale, R.; Cooper, M.M.

    1985-09-01

    In 83 patients with acute pancreatitis, the initial computed tomographic (CT) examinations were classified by degree of disease severity (grades A-E) and were correlated with the clinical follow-up, objective prognostic signs, and complications and death. The length of hospitalization correlated well with the severity of the initial CT findings. Abscesses occurred in 21.6% of the entire group, compared with 60.0% of grade E patients. Pleural effusions were also more common in grade E patients. Abscesses were seen in 80.0% of patients with six to eight prognostic signs, compared with 12.5% of those with zero to two. The use of prognostic signs with initial CT findings results in improved prognostic accuracy. Early CT examination of patients with acute pancreatitis is a useful prognostic indicator of morbidity and mortality.

  1. Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

    2015-01-01

    Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

  2. Prognostication of Bell's palsy using transcranial magnetic stimulation.

    PubMed

    Rimpiläinen, I; Eskola, H; Laippala, P; Laranne, J; Karma, P

    1997-01-01

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) provides a method to noninvasive excitation of the facial nerve in its intracranial segment close to the internal acoustic meatus. Thus, the site of facial nerve activation with TMS is proximal to or within the site of the lesion in Bell's palsy. To evaluate the prognostic capability of TMS in unilateral Bell's palsy we examined 137 patients with this method, and compared the results with electroneuronography (ENoG). Within 0-4 days from the onset of palsy, the patients with elicitable TMS responses recovered better than those in whom TMS responses were not elicitable. If TMS was performed 5-9 days or 10-28 days after the onset of palsy, it did not provide any prognostic information. Based on amplitude side-to-side differences, ENoG did not contribute prognostic information during the first 9 days from the onset of palsy. Later on, 10-28 days after the onset of palsy, ENoG showed an increased capability to discriminate the patients with poor prognosis. Thus, elicitable facial motor response with TMS predicts good prognosis of Bell's palsy at an early stage whereas poor response with ENoG predicts less favorable prognosis at a later stage. PMID:9288286

  3. Prognostic factors in histiocytosis X.

    PubMed

    Lahey, M E

    1981-01-01

    It is now clear that the prognosis in children with histiocytosis X has improved considerable over the past few years. To be sure, patients with solitary lesions have an excellent prognosis. Whereas the outlook for patients with significant visceral involvement is not as good as those with bone lesions only, the outlook is by no means hopeless, as was once thought. A number of prognostic factors have been reviewed here. The most significant of these factors at the present time would appear to be age of onset of the disease, extent of involvement, the rapidity of progression of the disease, and, in particular, the presence or absence of dysfunction of such crucial organ systems as liver, lung, and hemopoietic system. Further studies of the significance of histologic features and immunologic findings are clearly needed to further our understanding of this disorder. PMID:6972178

  4. Prognostic Value of FDG-PET, Based on the Revised Response Criteria, in Patients with Malignant Lymphoma: A Comparison with CT/MRI Evaluations, Based on the International Working Group/Cotswolds Meeting Criteria

    PubMed Central

    Isohashi, Kayako; Tatsumi, Mitsuaki; Kato, Hiroki; Fukushima, Kentaro; Maeda, Tetsuo; Watabe, Tadashi; Shimosegawa, Eku; Kanakura, Yuzuru; Hatazawa, Jun

    2015-01-01

    Objective(s): Post-treatment evaluations by CT/MRI (based on the International Working Group/Cotswolds meeting guidelines) and PET (based on Revised Response Criteria), were examined in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with malignant lymphoma (ML). Methods: 79 patients, undergoing CT/MRI for the examination of suspected lesions and whole-body PET/CT before and after therapy, were included in the study during April 2007-January 2013. The relationship between post-treatment evaluations (CT/MRI and PET) and PFS during the follow-up period was examined, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. The patients were grouped according to the histological type into Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and other histological types. The association between post-treatment evaluations (PET or PET combined with CT/MRI) and PFS was examined separately. Moreover, the relationship between disease recurrence and serum soluble interleukin-2 receptor, lactic dehydrogenase, and C-reactive protein levels was evaluated before and after the treatment. Results: Patients with incomplete remission on both CT/MRI and PET had a significantly shorter PFS, compared to patients with complete remission on both CT/MRI and PET and those exhibiting incomplete remission on CT/MRI and complete remission on PET (P<0.001). Post-treatment PET evaluations were strongly correlated with patient outcomes in cases with HL or DLBCL (P<0.01) and other histological types (P<0.001). In patients with HL or DLBCL, incomplete remission on both CT/MRI and PET was associated with a significantly shorter PFS, compared to patients with complete remission on both CT/MRI and PET (P<0.05) and those showing incomplete remission on CT/MRI and complete remission on PET (P<0.01). In patients with other histological types, incomplete remission on both CT/MRI and PET was associated with a significantly shorter PFS, compared to cases with complete remission on both CT/MRI and PET (P<0

  5. An Integrated Approach for Gear Health Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    He, David; Bechhoefer, Eric; Dempsey, Paula; Ma, Jinghua

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated approach for gear health prognostics using particle filters is presented. The presented method effectively addresses the issues in applying particle filters to gear health prognostics by integrating several new components into a particle filter: (1) data mining based techniques to effectively define the degradation state transition and measurement functions using a one-dimensional health index obtained by whitening transform; (2) an unbiased l-step ahead RUL estimator updated with measurement errors. The feasibility of the presented prognostics method is validated using data from a spiral bevel gear case study.

  6. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) as a novel and significant predictor of extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type.

    PubMed

    Li, Ya-Jun; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Huang, Jia-Jia; Xia, Zhong-Jun; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Li, Zhi-Ming

    2013-05-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score including C-reactive protein and albumin, shows significant prognostic value in several types of solid tumors. The prognostic value of GPS in lymphoma remains unclear. We performed this study to evaluate the prognostic significance of GPS in extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL). We retrospectively analyzed 164 patients with newly diagnosed ENKL. The prognostic value of GPS was evaluated and compared with that of International Prognostic Index (IPI), Prognostic Index for Peripheral T-cell lymphoma unspecified (PIT), and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI). Patients with higher GPS tended to have more adverse clinical characteristics, lower rates of complete remission (P < 0.001), inferior progression-free survival (PFS, P < 0.001), and inferior overall survival (OS, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high GPS, age > 60 years, and elevated LDH were independent adverse predictors of OS. GPS was found superior to IPI, PIT, and KPI in discriminating patients with different outcomes in low-risk groups (all P < 0.05). GPS is an independent predictor of survival outcomes in ENKL. Inflammatory response might play an important role in the progression of ENKL and survival of patients with ENKL. PMID:23423859

  7. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Metric Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cornhill, Dennis; Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar

    2013-01-01

    This document outlines a set of metrics for evaluating the diagnostic and prognostic schemes developed for the Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR), a system-level reasoner that encompasses the multiple levels of large, complex systems such as those for aircraft and spacecraft. VIPR health managers are organized hierarchically and operate together to derive diagnostic and prognostic inferences from symptoms and conditions reported by a set of diagnostic and prognostic monitors. For layered reasoners such as VIPR, the overall performance cannot be evaluated by metrics solely directed toward timely detection and accuracy of estimation of the faults in individual components. Among other factors, overall vehicle reasoner performance is governed by the effectiveness of the communication schemes between monitors and reasoners in the architecture, and the ability to propagate and fuse relevant information to make accurate, consistent, and timely predictions at different levels of the reasoner hierarchy. We outline an extended set of diagnostic and prognostics metrics that can be broadly categorized as evaluation measures for diagnostic coverage, prognostic coverage, accuracy of inferences, latency in making inferences, computational cost, and sensitivity to different fault and degradation conditions. We report metrics from Monte Carlo experiments using two variations of an aircraft reference model that supported both flat and hierarchical reasoning.

  8. Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few. The research community has used a variety of metrics largely based on convenience and their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a standardized approach to compare different efforts. This paper presents several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics that were recently introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. These metrics have the capability of incorporating probabilistic uncertainty estimates from prognostic algorithms. In addition to quantitative assessment they also offer a comprehensive visual perspective that can be used in designing the prognostic system. Several methods are suggested to customize these metrics for different applications. Guidelines are provided to help choose one method over another based on distribution characteristics. Various issues faced by prognostics and its performance evaluation are discussed followed by a formal notational framework to help standardize subsequent developments.

  9. On Applying the Prognostic Performance Metrics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prognostics performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. As prognostics technology matures and more sophisticated methods for prognostic uncertainty management are developed, a standardized methodology for performance evaluation becomes extremely important to guide improvement efforts in a constructive manner. This paper is in continuation of previous efforts where several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics were introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. Several shortcomings identified, while applying these metrics to a variety of real applications, are also summarized along with discussions that attempt to alleviate these problems. Further, these metrics have been enhanced to include the capability of incorporating probability distribution information from prognostic algorithms as opposed to evaluation based on point estimates only. Several methods have been suggested and guidelines have been provided to help choose one method over another based on probability distribution characteristics. These approaches also offer a convenient and intuitive visualization of algorithm performance with respect to some of these new metrics like prognostic horizon and alpha-lambda performance, and also quantify the corresponding performance while incorporating the uncertainty information.

  10. Beta-2 microglobulin and lactate dehydrogenase levels are useful prognostic markers in early stage primary gastric lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Avilés, A; Narváez, B R

    1998-10-01

    The optimal management of primary gastric lymphoma (PGL) remains undecided because a definitive classification for therapeutic decision is not available. The International Index Project has proved to be useful in patients with nodal disease, but in extranodal presentation it has not been tested. We reviewed 297 patients with early stage PGL. They were initially classified according to the prognostic features of the International Index Project. No influence on duration of time to treatment failure (TTF) or overall survival was observed. For this reason we developed a logistical model to identify prognostic factors in patients with early stage PGL. Levels of beta-2 microglobulin and lactic dehydrogenase were observed to have prognostic significance in both univariate and multivariate analysis. With these parameters we constructed a logistical model to identify patients at low risk (TTF = 76%; at 7 years overall survival was 96%), statistically different to patients at high risk (TTF = 34% and overall survival = 22%). The number of patients at intermediate risk were too small to compare with the other groups. Because pathological or other clinical or laboratory prognostic features cannot help in the identification of a prognostic model, we propose that the use beta-2 microglobulin and lactic dehydrogenase can define different groups at risk and develop a prognostic system to define the best therapeutic approach in this patients. PMID:9807677

  11. A Survey of Attitudes towards the Clinical Application of Systemic Inflammation Based Prognostic Scores in Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Watt, David G.; Roxburgh, Campbell S.; White, Mark; Chan, Juen Zhik; Horgan, Paul G.; McMillan, Donald C.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. The systemic inflammatory response (SIR) plays a key role in determining nutritional status and survival of patients with cancer. A number of objective scoring systems have been shown to have prognostic value; however, their application in routine clinical practice is not clear. The aim of the present survey was to examine the range of opinions internationally on the routine use of these scoring systems. Methods. An online survey was distributed to a target group consisting of individuals worldwide who have reported an interest in systemic inflammation in patients with cancer. Results. Of those invited by the survey (n = 238), 65% routinely measured the SIR, mainly for research and prognostication purposes and clinically for allocation of adjuvant therapy or palliative chemotherapy. 40% reported that they currently used the Glasgow Prognostic Score/modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS/mGPS) and 81% reported that a measure of systemic inflammation should be incorporated into clinical guidelines, such as the definition of cachexia. Conclusions. The majority of respondents routinely measured the SIR in patients with cancer, mainly using the GPS/mGPS for research and prognostication purposes. The majority reported that a measure of the SIR should be adopted into clinical guidelines. PMID:26504363

  12. Clinical characteristics and prognostic analysis of Chinese patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Ke, Xiaoyan; Wang, Jing; Gao, Zifen; Zhao, Lingzhi; Li, Min; Jing, Hongmei; Wang, Jijun; Zhao, Wei; Gilbert, Heather; Yang, Xiao-Feng

    2010-01-15

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common type of lymphoma in adults. As it is a highly heterogenous disease, many studies have focused on finding useful prognostic factors to help guide therapy. In this report, we examine several biological markers in 83 patients with DLBCL enrolled in our hospital, including cell origin, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and international prognostic index (IPI), in order to find the best combination of prognostic factors. We also examined whether DLBCL has a significant geographic difference, since several studies have suggested that the prevalence and potential etiological factors of lymphomas in China may be different from those in other countries. Our results demonstrate that: (1) patients in China have higher extranodal tissue involvement and different extranodal organ distribution than patients reported from other countries; (2) Chinese patients have higher rates of germinal center (GC) cell origin; and (3) among nine prognostic variables, lower IPI scores, GC cell origin determined by immunohistochemical staining, and no more than 1.5 times of normal levels of LDH are statistically significant good prognostic factors in Chinese patients with DLBCL, whereas age at the time of diagnosis, clinical stage, beta(2)-microglobulin levels, extranodal tissue involvement, and expression levels of Bcl-6 protein were not useful in determining prognosis. PMID:19819170

  13. Prognostic model for mantle cell lymphoma in the rituximab era: a nationwide study in Japan.

    PubMed

    Chihara, Dai; Asano, Naoko; Ohmachi, Ken; Kinoshita, Tomohiro; Okamoto, Masataka; Maeda, Yoshinobu; Mizuno, Ishikazu; Matsue, Kosei; Uchida, Toshiki; Nagai, Hirokazu; Nishikori, Momoko; Nakamura, Shigeo; Ogura, Michinori; Suzuki, Ritsuro

    2015-09-01

    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is essentially incurable with conventional chemotherapy. The MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI) is a validated specific prognostic index, but was derived from patients with advanced-stage disease primarily in the pre-rituximab era. We analysed 501 MCL patients (median age, 67 years; range 22-90) treated with rituximab-containing chemotherapy, and evaluated the prognostic factors adjusted by the treatment. Five-year overall survival (OS) in the low, intermediate and high MIPI groups was 74%, 70% and 35%, respectively. Additional to MIPI risk factors, multivariate analysis revealed that low serum albumin and bone-marrow involvement were also significantly associated with a poor outcome. The revised-MIPI (R-MIPI) was constructed using six factors, namely age, performance status, white blood cell count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, bone-marrow involvement and serum albumin, which is divided into four prognostic groups. Five-year OS in low, low-intermediate (L-I), high-intermediate (H-I) and high R-MIPI groups was 92%, 75%, 61% and 19%, respectively. Hazard ratio for OS of L-I, H-I and high risk to low risk patients were 5·4, 8·3 and 33·0, respectively. R-MIPI, a new prognostic index with easy application to the general patient population, shows promise for identifying low- and high-risk MCL patients in the rituximab era. PMID:25953436

  14. Predicting survival in malignant pleural effusion: development and validation of the LENT prognostic score

    PubMed Central

    Clive, Amelia O; Kahan, Brennan C; Hooper, Clare E; Bhatnagar, Rahul; Morley, Anna J; Zahan-Evans, Natalie; Bintcliffe, Oliver J; Boshuizen, Rogier C; Fysh, Edward T H; Tobin, Claire L; Medford, Andrew R L; Harvey, John E; van den Heuvel, Michel M; Lee, Y C Gary; Maskell, Nick A

    2014-01-01

    Background Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) causes debilitating breathlessness and predicting survival is challenging. This study aimed to obtain contemporary data on survival by underlying tumour type in patients with MPE, identify prognostic indicators of overall survival and develop and validate a prognostic scoring system. Methods Three large international cohorts of patients with MPE were used to calculate survival by cell type (univariable Cox model). The prognostic value of 14 predefined variables was evaluated in the most complete data set (multivariable Cox model). A clinical prognostic scoring system was then developed and validated. Results Based on the results of the international data and the multivariable survival analysis, the LENT prognostic score (pleural fluid lactate dehydrogenase, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score (PS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and tumour type) was developed and subsequently validated using an independent data set. Risk stratifying patients into low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups gave median (IQR) survivals of 319 days (228–549; n=43), 130 days (47–467; n=129) and 44 days (22–77; n=31), respectively. Only 65% (20/31) of patients with a high-risk LENT score survived 1 month from diagnosis and just 3% (1/31) survived 6 months. Analysis of the area under the receiver operating curve revealed the LENT score to be superior at predicting survival compared with ECOG PS at 1 month (0.77 vs 0.66, p<0.01), 3 months (0.84 vs 0.75, p<0.01) and 6 months (0.85 vs 0.76, p<0.01). Conclusions The LENT scoring system is the first validated prognostic score in MPE, which predicts survival with significantly better accuracy than ECOG PS alone. This may aid clinical decision making in this diverse patient population. PMID:25100651

  15. Prognostic Disclosures to Children: A Historical Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Sisk, Bryan A.; Bluebond-Langner, Myra; Wiener, Lori; Mack, Jennifer; Wolfe, Joanne

    2016-01-01

    Prognostic disclosure to children has perpetually challenged clinicians and parents. In this article, we review the historical literature on prognostic disclosure to children in the United States using cancer as an illness model. Prior to 1948, there was virtually no literature focused on prognostic disclosure to children. As articles began to be published in the 1950s and 1960s, many clinicians and researchers initially recommended a “protective” approach to disclosure, where children were shielded from the harms of bad news. We identified four main arguments in the literature at this time supporting this “protective” approach. By the late 1960s, however, a growing number of clinicians and researchers were recommending a more “open” approach, where children were included in discussions of diagnosis, which at the time was often synonymous with a terminal prognosis. Four different arguments in the literature were used at this time supporting this “open” approach. Then by the late 1980s, the recommended approach to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics shifted largely from “never tell” to “always tell”. In recent years, however, there has been a growing appreciation for the complexity of prognostic disclosure in pediatrics. Current understanding of pediatric disclosure does not lead to simple “black and white” recommendations for disclosure practices. As with most difficult questions, we are left to balance competing factors on a case-by-case basis. We highlight four categories of current considerations related to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics, and we offer several approaches to prognostic disclosure for clinicians who care for these young patients and their families. PMID:27561728

  16. Prognostic Disclosures to Children: A Historical Perspective.

    PubMed

    Sisk, Bryan A; Bluebond-Langner, Myra; Wiener, Lori; Mack, Jennifer; Wolfe, Joanne

    2016-09-01

    Prognostic disclosure to children has perpetually challenged clinicians and parents. In this article, we review the historical literature on prognostic disclosure to children in the United States using cancer as an illness model. Before 1948, there was virtually no literature focused on prognostic disclosure to children. As articles began to be published in the 1950s and 1960s, many clinicians and researchers initially recommended a "protective" approach to disclosure, where children were shielded from the harms of bad news. We identified 4 main arguments in the literature at this time supporting this "protective" approach. By the late 1960s, however, a growing number of clinicians and researchers were recommending a more "open" approach, where children were included in discussions of diagnosis, which at the time was often synonymous with a terminal prognosis. Four different arguments in the literature were used at this time supporting this "open" approach. Then, by the late 1980s, the recommended approach to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics shifted largely from "never tell" to "always tell." In recent years, however, there has been a growing appreciation for the complexity of prognostic disclosure in pediatrics. Current understanding of pediatric disclosure does not lead to simple "black-and-white" recommendations for disclosure practices. As with most difficult questions, we are left to balance competing factors on a case-by-case basis. We highlight 4 categories of current considerations related to prognostic disclosure in pediatrics, and we offer several approaches to prognostic disclosure for clinicians who care for these young patients and their families. PMID:27561728

  17. A new extranodal scoring system based on the prognostically relevant extranodal sites in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified treated with chemoimmunotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Hee Sang; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Suh, Cheolwon; Huh, Jooryung

    2016-08-01

    Extranodal involvement is a well-known prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL). Nevertheless, the prognostic impact of the extranodal scoring system included in the conventional international prognostic index (IPI) has been questioned in an era where rituximab treatment has become widespread. We investigated the prognostic impacts of individual sites of extranodal involvement in 761 patients with DLBCL who received rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy. Subsequently, we established a new extranodal scoring system based on extranodal sites, showing significant prognostic correlation, and compared this system with conventional scoring systems, such as the IPI and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI (NCCN-IPI). An internal validation procedure, using bootstrapped samples, was also performed for both univariate and multivariate models. Using multivariate analysis with a backward variable selection, we found nine extranodal sites (the liver, lung, spleen, central nervous system, bone marrow, kidney, skin, adrenal glands, and peritoneum) that remained significant for use in the final model. Our newly established extranodal scoring system, based on these sites, was better correlated with patient survival than standard scoring systems, such as the IPI and the NCCN-IPI. Internal validation by bootstrapping demonstrated an improvement in model performance of our modified extranodal scoring system. Our new extranodal scoring system, based on the prognostically relevant sites, may improve the performance of conventional prognostic models of DLBCL in the rituximab era and warrants further external validation using large study populations. PMID:27167532

  18. Prognostic DNA Methylation Markers for Prostate Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Strand, Siri H.; Orntoft, Torben F.; Sorensen, Karina D.

    2014-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm and the third most common cause of cancer-related death amongst men in the Western world. PC is a clinically highly heterogeneous disease, and distinction between aggressive and indolent disease is a major challenge for the management of PC. Currently, no biomarkers or prognostic tools are able to accurately predict tumor progression at the time of diagnosis. Thus, improved biomarkers for PC prognosis are urgently needed. This review focuses on the prognostic potential of DNA methylation biomarkers for PC. Epigenetic changes are hallmarks of PC and associated with malignant initiation as well as tumor progression. Moreover, DNA methylation is the most frequently studied epigenetic alteration in PC, and the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers for PC has been demonstrated in multiple studies. The most promising methylation marker candidates identified so far include PITX2, C1orf114 (CCDC181) and the GABRE~miR-452~miR-224 locus, in addition to the three-gene signature AOX1/C1orf114/HAPLN3. Several other biomarker candidates have also been investigated, but with less stringent clinical validation and/or conflicting evidence regarding their possible prognostic value available at this time. Here, we review the current evidence for the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers in PC. PMID:25238417

  19. Prognostic DNA methylation markers for prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Strand, Siri H; Orntoft, Torben F; Sorensen, Karina D

    2014-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PC) is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm and the third most common cause of cancer-related death amongst men in the Western world. PC is a clinically highly heterogeneous disease, and distinction between aggressive and indolent disease is a major challenge for the management of PC. Currently, no biomarkers or prognostic tools are able to accurately predict tumor progression at the time of diagnosis. Thus, improved biomarkers for PC prognosis are urgently needed. This review focuses on the prognostic potential of DNA methylation biomarkers for PC. Epigenetic changes are hallmarks of PC and associated with malignant initiation as well as tumor progression. Moreover, DNA methylation is the most frequently studied epigenetic alteration in PC, and the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers for PC has been demonstrated in multiple studies. The most promising methylation marker candidates identified so far include PITX2, C1orf114 (CCDC181) and the GABRE~miR-452~miR-224 locus, in addition to the three-gene signature AOX1/C1orf114/HAPLN3. Several other biomarker candidates have also been investigated, but with less stringent clinical validation and/or conflicting evidence regarding their possible prognostic value available at this time. Here, we review the current evidence for the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers in PC. PMID:25238417

  20. Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Prognostics has taken a center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically four algorithms namely; Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR) are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in different manner and depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, these metrics offer ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized. 1

  1. A Distributed Prognostic Health Management Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bhaskar, Saha; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a generic distributed prognostic health management (PHM) architecture with specific application to the electrical power systems domain. Current state-of-the-art PHM systems are mostly centralized in nature, where all the processing is reliant on a single processor. This can lead to loss of functionality in case of a crash of the central processor or monitor. Furthermore, with increases in the volume of sensor data as well as the complexity of algorithms, traditional centralized systems become unsuitable for successful deployment, and efficient distributed architectures are required. A distributed architecture though, is not effective unless there is an algorithmic framework to take advantage of its unique abilities. The health management paradigm envisaged here incorporates a heterogeneous set of system components monitored by a varied suite of sensors and a particle filtering (PF) framework that has the power and the flexibility to adapt to the different diagnostic and prognostic needs. Both the diagnostic and prognostic tasks are formulated as a particle filtering problem in order to explicitly represent and manage uncertainties; however, typically the complexity of the prognostic routine is higher than the computational power of one computational element ( CE). Individual CEs run diagnostic routines until the system variable being monitored crosses beyond a nominal threshold, upon which it coordinates with other networked CEs to run the prognostic routine in a distributed fashion. Implementation results from a network of distributed embedded devices monitoring a prototypical aircraft electrical power system are presented, where the CEs are Sun Microsystems Small Programmable Object Technology (SPOT) devices.

  2. Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Spolverato, Gaya; Pawlik, Timothy M.; Huo, Teh-la; Lee, Yun-Hsuan; Frigo, Anna Chiara; Giacomin, Anna; Giannini, Edoardo G.; Ciccarese, Francesca; Piscaglia, Fabio; Rapaccini, Gian Lodovico; Caturelli, Eugenio; Zoli, Marco; Borzio, Franco; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Sacco, Rodolfo; Morisco, Filomena; Biasini, Elisabetta; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Svegliati Baroni, Gianluca; Virdone, Roberto; Trevisani, Franco; Cillo, Umberto

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. Methods and Findings Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child–Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26–106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12–61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2–3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4–5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese

  3. Prognostic Factors in Childhood Leukemia (ALL or AML)

    MedlinePlus

    ... for childhood leukemias Prognostic factors in childhood leukemia (ALL or AML) Certain factors that can affect a ... myelogenous leukemia (AML). Prognostic factors for children with ALL Children with ALL are often divided into risk ...

  4. Prognostic importance of DNA ploidy in non-endometrioid, high-risk endometrial carcinomas

    PubMed Central

    SORBE, BENGT

    2016-01-01

    The present study investigated the predictive and prognostic impact of DNA ploidy together with other well-known prognostic factors in a series of non-endometrioid, high-risk endometrial carcinomas. From a complete consecutive series of 4,543 endometrial carcinomas of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages I–IV, 94 serous carcinomas, 48 clear cell carcinomas and 231 carcinosarcomas were selected as a non-endometrioid, high-risk group for further studies regarding prognosis. The impact of DNA ploidy, as assessed by flow cytometry, was of particular focus. The age of the patients, FIGO stage, depth of myometrial infiltration and tumor expression of p53 were also included in the analyses (univariate and multivariate). In the complete series of cases, the recurrence rate was 37%, and the 5-year overall survival rate was 39% with no difference between the three histological subtypes. The primary cure rate (78%) was also similar for all tumor types studied. DNA ploidy was a significant predictive factor (on univariate analysis) for primary tumor cure rate, and a prognostic factor for survival rate (on univariate and multivariate analyses). The predictive and prognostic impact of DNA ploidy was higher in carcinosarcomas than in serous and clear cell carcinomas. In the majority of multivariate analyses, FIGO stage and depth of myometrial infiltration were the most important predictive (tumor recurrence) and prognostic (survival rate) factors. DNA ploidy status is a less important predictive and prognostic factor in non-endometrioid, high-risk endometrial carcinomas than in the common endometrioid carcinomas, in which FIGO and nuclear grade also are highly significant and important factors. PMID:26998163

  5. Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

  6. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harp, Janicce Leshay

    2014-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component, system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the "end of life." The capability also provides an assessment of the "remaining useful life" of a hardware component.

  7. Multidisciplinary Prognostication Using the Palliative Prognostic Score in an Australian Cancer Center

    PubMed Central

    Mendis, Ruwani; Soo, Wee-Kheng; Zannino, Diana; Michael, Natasha; Spruyt, Odette

    2015-01-01

    CONTEXT Accurate prognostication is important in oncology and palliative care. A multidisciplinary approach to prognostication provides a novel approach, but its accuracy and application is poorly researched. In this study, we describe and analyze our experience of multidisciplinary prognostication in palliative care patients with cancer. OBJECTIVES To assess our accuracy of prognostication using multidisciplinary team prediction of survival (MTPS) alone and within the Palliative Prognostic (PaP) Score. METHODS This retrospective study included all new patients referred to a palliative care consultation service in a tertiary cancer center between January 2010 and December 2011. Initial assessment data for 421 inpatients and 223 outpatients were analyzed according to inpatient and outpatient groups to evaluate the accuracy of prognostication using MTPS alone and within the PaP score (MTPS-PaP) and their correlation with overall survival. RESULTS Inpatients with MTPS-PaP group A, B, and C had a median survival of 10.9, 3.4, and 0.7 weeks, respectively, and a 30-day survival probability of 81%, 40%, and 10%, respectively. Outpatients with MTPS-PaP group A and B had a median survival of 17.3 and 5.1 weeks, respectively, and a 30-day survival probability of 94% and 50%, respectively. MTPS overestimated survival by a factor of 1.5 for inpatients and 1.2 for outpatients. The MTPS-PaP score correlated better than MTPS alone with overall survival. CONCLUSION This study suggests that a multidisciplinary team approach to prognostication within routine clinical practice is possible and may substitute for single clinician prediction of survival within the PaP score without detracting from its accuracy. Multidisciplinary team prognostication can assist treating teams to recognize and articulate prognosis, facilitate treatment decisions, and plan end-of-life care appropriately. PaP was less useful in the outpatient setting, given the longer survival interval of the outpatient

  8. The Biochemical Prognostic Factors of Subclinical Hypothyroidism

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Myung Won; Shin, Dong Yeob; Kim, Kwang Joon; Hwang, Sena

    2014-01-01

    Background Patients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SHT) are common in clinical practice. However, the clinical significance of SHT, including prognosis, has not been established. Further clarifying SHT will be critical in devising a management plan and treatment guidelines for SHT patients. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors of SHT. Methods We reviewed the medical records of Korean patients who visited the endocrinology outpatient clinic of Severance Hospital from January 2008 to September 2012. Newly-diagnosed patients with SHT were selected and reviewed retrospectively. We compared two groups: the SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group. Results The SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group had initial thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels that were significantly different (P=0.035). In subanalysis for subjects with TSH levels between 5 to 10 µIU/mL, the spontaneous improvement group showed significantly lower antithyroid peroxidase antibody (anti-TPO-Ab) titer than the SHT maintenance group (P=0.039). Regarding lipid profiles, only triglyceride level, unlike total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, was related to TSH level, which is correlated with the severity of SHT. Diffuse thyroiditis on ultrasonography only contributed to the severity of SHT, not to the prognosis. High sensitivity C-reactive protein and urine iodine excretion, generally regarded as possible prognostic factors, did not show any significant relation with the prognosis and severity of SHT. Conclusion Only initial TSH level was a definite prognostic factor of SHT. TPO-Ab titer was also a helpful prognostic factor for SHT in cases with mildly elevated TSH. Other than TSH and TPO-Ab, we were unable to validate biochemical prognostic factors in this retrospective study for Korean SHT patients. PMID:25031888

  9. Conceptualizing prognostic awareness in advanced cancer: A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Applebaum, Allison J; Kolva, Elissa A; Kulikowski, Julia R; Jacobs, Jordana D; DeRosa, Antonio; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Olden, Megan E; Rosenfeld, Barry; Breitbart, William

    2015-01-01

    This systematic review synthesizes the complex literature on prognostic awareness in cancer. A total of 37 studies examining cancer patients’ understanding of their prognosis were included. Prognostic awareness definitions and assessment methods were inconsistent across studies. A surprisingly high percentage of patients (up to 75%) were unaware of their poor prognosis, and in several studies, even their cancer diagnosis (up to 96%), particularly in studies conducted outside of North America. This review highlights surprisingly low rates of prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer as well as discrepancies in prognostic awareness assessment, suggesting the need for empirically validated measures of prognostic awareness. PMID:24157936

  10. Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Distributed prognostics architecture design is an enabling step for efficient implementation of health management systems. A major challenge encountered in such design is formulation of optimal distributed prognostics algorithms. In this paper. we present a distributed GPR based prognostics algorithm whose target platform is a wireless sensor network. In addition to challenges encountered in a distributed implementation, a wireless network poses constraints on communication patterns, thereby making the problem more challenging. The prognostics application that was used to demonstrate our new algorithms is battery prognostics. In order to present trade-offs within different prognostic approaches, we present comparison with the distributed implementation of a particle filter based prognostics for the same battery data.

  11. Bile duct invasion can be an independent prognostic factor in early stage hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Jang, Ye-Rang; Kim, Hyeyoung; Lee, Jeong-Moo; Yi, Nam-Joon; Suh, Kyung-Suk

    2015-01-01

    Backgrounds/Aims In hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), bile duct invasion occurs far more rarely than vascular invasion and is not well characterized. In addition, the pathologic finding of bile duct invasion is not considered an independent prognostic factor for HCC following surgery. In this study, we determined the characteristics of HCC with bile duct invasion, and assessed the clinical significance of bile duct invasion. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 363 patients who underwent hepatic resection for HCC at Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) from January 2009 to December 2011. Preoperative, operative, and pathological data were collected. The risk factors for recurrence and survival were analyzed. Subsequently, the patients were divided into 2 groups according to disease stage (American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer 7th edition): early stage (T1 and 2) and advanced stage (T3 and 4) group; and risk factors in the sub-groups were analyzed. Results Among 363 patients, 13 showed bile duct invasion on pathology. Patients with bile duct invasion had higher preoperative total bilirubin levels, greater microvascular invasion, and a higher death rate than those without bile duct invasion. In multivariate analysis, bile duct invasion was not an independent prognostic factor for survival for the entire cohort, but, was an independent prognostic factor for early stage. Conclusions Bile duct invasion accompanied microvascular invasion in most cases, and could be used as an independent prognostic factor for survival especially in early stage HCC (T1 and T2). PMID:26693236

  12. Clinical features, outcome and prognostic factors of 87 patients with angioimmunoblastic T cell lymphoma in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Kao, Hsiao-Wen; Lin, Tung-Liang; Shih, Lee-Yung; Dunn, Po; Kuo, Ming-Chung; Hung, Yu-Shin; Wu, Jin-Hou; Tang, Tzung-Chih; Chang, Hung; Kuo, Tseng-Tong; Ou, Che-Wei; Wang, Po-Nan

    2016-08-01

    We retrospectively analyzed 87 patients with angioimmunoblastic T cell lymphoma (AITL) in Taiwan. The median age was 68 (range 18-89) years. Of these patients, 74 % was at an advanced stage. The most common extra-nodal site involved was bone marrow (36 %). Of these patients, 77 % were International Prognostic Index (IPI) >1 and 79 % had a prognostic index for peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PIT) >1. Of 75 patients who received systemic chemotherapy, the complete remission rate was 60 %, the relapse rate was 47 %, and the 2-year progression-free survival rate was 37.4 %. The 2-year overall survival (OS) rate for all patients was 51.9 %. By multivariate analysis, bone marrow involvement (P < 0.001) and ECOG >1 (P = 0.007) were independent adverse factors for OS. A simplified prognostic index efficiently stratified patients into the following three groups: 2-year OS rates 79.8 % (0 factor), 28.3 % (1 factor), and 10.2 % (2 factors) by using bone marrow involvement and ECOG >1 (P < 0.001). In conclusion, AITL patients were older and had poorer prognosis in Taiwan. Bone marrow involvement, EOCG >1, IPI >1 and PIT >1 had adverse impact on OS. The usefulness of this simplified prognostic index needs further validation. PMID:27095042

  13. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores.

    PubMed

    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M

    2016-08-01

    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). PMID:23907781

  14. Prognostics for Electronics Components of Avionics Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2009-01-01

    Electronics components have and increasingly critical role in avionics systems and for the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research filed as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management. This paper reports on a prognostics application for electronics components of avionics systems, in particular, its application to the Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). The remaining useful life prediction for the IGBT is based on the particle filter framework, leveraging data from an accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. The accelerated aging test provided thermal-electrical overstress by applying thermal cycling to the device. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of the steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  15. [Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

    PubMed

    Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique

    2016-02-19

    Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies. PMID:25726309

  16. Prognostic Value of Colorectal Cancer Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Bianchi, Paolo; Laghi, Luigi; Delconte, Gabriele; Malesci, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Despite the large amount of data in cancer biology and many studies into the likely survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, knowledge regarding the issue of CRC prognostic biomarkers remains poor. The Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system continues to be the most powerful and reliable predictor of the clinical outcome of CRC patients. The exponential increase of knowledge in the field of molecular genetics has lead to the identification of specific alterations involved in the malignant progression. Many of these genetic alterations were proposed as biomarkers which could be used in clinical practice to estimate CRC prognosis. Recently there has been an explosive increase in the number of putative biomarkers able to predict the response to specific adjuvant treatment. In this review we explore and summarize data concerning prognostic and predictive biomarkers and we attempt to shed light on recent research that could lead to the emergence of new biomarkers in CRC. PMID:24212797

  17. Stage-specific prognostic biomarkers in melanoma.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yabin; Lu, Jing; Chen, Guangdi; Ardekani, Gholamreza Safaee; Rotte, Anand; Martinka, Magdalena; Xu, Xuezhu; McElwee, Kevin J; Zhang, Guohong; Zhou, Youwen

    2015-02-28

    The melanoma staging system proposed by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) (which classifies melanoma patients into four clinical stages) is currently the most widely used tool for melanoma prognostication, and clinical management decision making by clinicians. However, multiple studies have shown that melanomas within specific AJCC Stages can exhibit varying progression and clinical outcomes. Thus, additional information, such as that provided by biomarkers is needed to assist in identifying the patients at risk of disease progression. Having previously found six independent prognostic biomarkers in melanoma, including BRAF, MMP2, p27, Dicer, Fbw7 and Tip60, our group has gone on to investigate if these markers are useful in risk stratification of melanoma patients in individual AJCC stages. First, we performed Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional multivariate analyses comparing prognostication power of these markers in 254 melanoma patients for whom the expression levels were known, identifying the best performing markers as candidates for stage-specific melanoma markers. We then verified the results by incorporating an additional independent cohort (87 patients) and in a combined cohort (341 patients). Our data indicate that BRAF and MMP2 are optimal prognostic biomarkers for AJCC Stages I and II, respectively (P = 0.010, 0.000, Log-rank test); whereas p27 emerged as a good marker for AJCC Stages III/IV (0.018, 0.046, respectively, log-rank test). Thus, our study has identified stage-specific biomarkers in melanoma, a finding which may assist clinicians in designing improved personalized therapeutic modalities. PMID:25784655

  18. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar; Cornhill, Dennis; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Mack, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    A systems view is necessary to detect, diagnose, predict, and mitigate adverse events during the flight of an aircraft. While most aircraft subsystems look for simple threshold exceedances and report them to a central maintenance computer, the vehicle integrated prognostic reasoner (VIPR) proactively generates evidence and takes an active role in aircraft-level health assessment. Establishing the technical feasibility and a design trade-space for this next-generation vehicle-level reasoning system (VLRS) is the focus of our work.

  19. A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

  20. Prognostic significance of QRS duration and morphology.

    PubMed

    Brenyo, Andrew; Zaręba, Wojciech

    2011-01-01

    QRS duration and morphology, evaluated via a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), represent an opportunity to derive useful prognostic information regarding the risk of subsequent cardiac events or therapeutic outcomes. Prolonged QRS duration, and the presence of intraventricular conduction abnormalities, usually indicate the presence of changes in the myocardium due to underlying heart disease. Prolonged QRS duration is often associated with depressed ejection fraction or enlarged left ventricular volumes, but several studies have demonstrated that this simple ECG measure provides independent prognostic value, after adjusting for relevant clinical covariates. Post-infarction patients with prolonged QRS duration have a significantly increased risk of mortality, although data associating QRS prolongation specifically with sudden death is less supportive. In non-ischemic cardiomyopathy, there is no evidence that QRS duration has prognostic significance in predicting mortality or sudden death. Prolonged QRS duration, and especially presence of left bundle branch block, seems to predict a benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in both ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy patients. Therefore, QRS duration and morphology should not only be considered a predictor of death or sudden death in patients after myocardial infarction, and in those suspected of coronary artery disease, but also as a predictor of benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure, whether of an ischemic or non-ischemic origin. PMID:21305480

  1. New prognostic biomarkers in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Szudy-Szczyrek, Aneta; Szczyrek, Michał; Soroka-Wojtaszko, Maria; Hus, Marek

    2016-01-01

    Multiple myeloma is a malignant neoplastic disease, characterized by uncontrolled proliferation and accumulation of plasma cells in the bone marrow, which is usually connected with production of a monoclonal protein. It is the second most common hematologic malignancy. It constitutes approximately 1% of all cancers and 10% of hematological malignancies. Despite the huge progress that has been made in the treatment of multiple myeloma in the past 30 years including the introduction of new immunomodulatory drugs and proteasome inhibitors, it is still an incurable disease. According to current data, the five-year survival rate is 45%. Multiple myeloma is a very heterogeneous disease with a very diverse clinical course, which is expressed by differences in effectiveness of therapeutic strategies and ability to develop chemoresistance. This diversity implies the need to define risk stratification factors that would help to create personalized and optimized therapy and thereby improve treatment outcomes. Prognostic markers that aim to objectively evaluate the risk of a poor outcome, relapse and the patient's overall outcome are useful for this purpose. The existing, widely used prognostic classifications, such as the Salmon-Durie classification or ISS, do not allow for individualization of treatment. As a result of the development of diagnostic techniques, especially cytogenetics and molecular biology, we were able to discover a lot of new, more sensitive and specific prognostic factors. The paper presents recent reports on the role of molecular, cytogenetic and biochemical alterations in pathogenesis and prognosis of the disease. PMID:27463592

  2. Prognostic factors in neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Da Yong; Chong, Chul; Kim, Jae Weon; Park, Noh Hyun; Song, Yong Sang; Park, Sang Yoon

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the clinical and pathologic factors associated with survival in patients with neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma (NECC). Methods The records of 61 patients with NECC diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 at Seoul National University Hospital and the National Cancer Center were retrospectively reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used for analyses. Results Of the 61 patients, 67.2% were diagnosed at early stage (I to IIA) with a median age of 49 years. Of those, 78% underwent surgery and 75.6% received postoperative adjuvant treatment. For patients diagnosed at advanced stage, 60.0% received chemotherapy only and 25.0% received concurrent chemoradiation therapy. In the univariate analysis, advanced stage (77 vs. 40 months, P=0.013), tumor size ≥2 cm (133 vs. 47 months, P=0.002) and mixed tumor (101 vs. 34 months, P=0.004) were shown to be poor prognostic factors. In the multivariate analysis, tumor stage, tumor size and tumor homology were shown to be independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Of the total, 39.3% of the patients experienced recurrence, and 54.1% of the patients had metastasis. Of the patients diagnosed at early stage, 51.2% experienced recurrence. Conclusion Tumor stage, tumor size and tumor homology were found to be independent prognostic factors in patients with NECC. Even in patients diagnosed at early stage, recurrence and distant metastasis were frequently observed. PMID:27004202

  3. Prognostic indices in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: where do we stand how do we proceed?

    PubMed

    Baliakas, P; Mattsson, M; Stamatopoulos, K; Rosenquist, R

    2016-04-01

    The remarkable clinical heterogeneity in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) has highlighted the need for prognostic and predictive algorithms that can be employed in clinical practice to assist patient management and therapy decisions. Over the last 20 years, this research field has been rewarding and many novel prognostic factors have been identified, especially at the molecular genetic level. Whilst detection of recurrent cytogenetic aberrations and determination of the immunoglobulin heavy variable gene somatic hypermutation status have an established role in outcome prediction, next-generation sequencing has recently revealed novel mutated genes with clinical relevance (e.g. NOTCH1, SF3B1 and BIRC3). Efforts have been made to combine variables into prognostic indices; however, none has been universally adopted. Although a unifying model for all groups of patients and in all situations is appealing, this may prove difficult to attain. Alternatively, focused efforts on patient subgroups in the same clinical context and at certain clinically relevant 'decision points', that is at diagnosis and at initiation of first-line or subsequent treatments, may provide a more accurate approach. In this review, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages as well as the clinical applicability of three recently proposed prognostic models, the MD Anderson nomogram, the integrated cytogenetic and mutational model and the CLL-international prognostic index. We also consider future directions taking into account novel aspects of the disease, such as the tumour microenvironment and the dynamics of (sub)clonal evolution. These aspects are particularly relevant in view of the increasing number of new targeted therapies that have recently emerged. PMID:26709197

  4. Accelerated Aging System for Prognostics of Power Semiconductor Devices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Vashchenko, Vladislav; Wysocki, Philip; Saha, Sankalita

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics is an engineering discipline that focuses on estimation of the health state of a component and the prediction of its remaining useful life (RUL) before failure. Health state estimation is based on actual conditions and it is fundamental for the prediction of RUL under anticipated future usage. Failure of electronic devices is of great concern as future aircraft will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. Therefore, development of prognostics solutions for electronics is of key importance. This paper presents an accelerated aging system for gate-controlled power transistors. This system allows for the understanding of the effects of failure mechanisms, and the identification of leading indicators of failure which are essential in the development of physics-based degradation models and RUL prediction. In particular, this system isolates electrical overstress from thermal overstress. Also, this system allows for a precise control of internal temperatures, enabling the exploration of intrinsic failure mechanisms not related to the device packaging. By controlling the temperature within safe operation levels of the device, accelerated aging is induced by electrical overstress only, avoiding the generation of thermal cycles. The temperature is controlled by active thermal-electric units. Several electrical and thermal signals are measured in-situ and recorded for further analysis in the identification of leading indicators of failures. This system, therefore, provides a unique capability in the exploration of different failure mechanisms and the identification of precursors of failure that can be used to provide a health management solution for electronic devices.

  5. Sun exposure and melanoma prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    GANDINI, SARA; MONTELLA, MAURIZIO; AYALA, FABRIZIO; BENEDETTO, LUCIA; ROSSI, CARLO RICCARDO; VECCHIATO, ANTONELLA; CORRADIN, MARIA TERESA; DE GIORGI, VINCENZO; QUEIROLO, PAOLA; ZANNETTI, GUIDO; GIUDICE, GIUSEPPE; BORRONI, GIOVANNI; FORCIGNANÒ, ROSACHIARA; PERIS, KETTY; TOSTI, GIULIO; TESTORI, ALESSANDRO; TREVISAN, GIUSTO; SPAGNOLO, FRANCESCO; ASCIERTO, PAOLO A.

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have reported an association between sun exposure and the increased survival of patients with cutaneous melanoma (CM). The present study analyzed the association between ultraviolet (UV) light exposure and various prognostic factors in the Italian Clinical National Melanoma Registry. Clinical and sociodemographic features were collected, as well as information concerning sunbed exposure and holidays with sun exposure. Analyses were performed to investigate the association between exposure to UV and melanoma prognostic factors. Between December 2010 and December 2013, information was obtained on 2,738 melanoma patients from 38 geographically representative Italian sites. A total of 49% of the patients were >55 years old, 51% were men, 50% lived in the north of Italy and 57% possessed a high level of education (at least high school). A total of 8 patients had a family history of melanoma and 56% had a fair phenotype (Fitzpatrick skin type I or II). Of the total patients, 29% had been diagnosed with melanoma by a dermatologist; 29% of patients presented with a very thick melanoma (Breslow thickness, >2 mm) and 25% with an ulcerated melanoma. In total, 1% of patients had distant metastases and 13% exhibited lymph node involvement. Holidays with sun exposure 5 years prior to CM diagnosis were significantly associated with positive prognostic factors, including lower Breslow thickness (P<0.001) and absence of ulceration (P=0.009), following multiple adjustments for factors such as sociodemographic status, speciality of doctor performing the diagnosis and season of diagnosis. Sunbed exposure and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight were not significantly associated with Breslow thickness and ulceration. Holidays with sun exposure were associated with favorable CM prognostic factors, whereas no association was identified between sunbed use and sun exposure during peak hours of sunlight with favorable CM prognostic factors. However, the results of the

  6. Particle filter-based prognostics: Review, discussion and perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jouin, Marine; Gouriveau, Rafael; Hissel, Daniel; Péra, Marie-Cécile; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2016-05-01

    Particle filters are of great concern in a large variety of engineering fields such as robotics, statistics or automatics. Recently, it has developed among Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) applications for diagnostics and prognostics. According to some authors, it has ever become a state-of-the-art technique for prognostics. Nowadays, around 50 papers dealing with prognostics based on particle filters can be found in the literature. However, no comprehensive review has been proposed on the subject until now. This paper aims at analyzing the way particle filters are used in that context. The development of the tool in the prognostics' field is discussed before entering the details of its practical use and implementation. Current issues are identified, analyzed and some solutions or work trails are proposed. All this aims at highlighting future perspectives as well as helping new users to start with particle filters in the goal of prognostics.

  7. The prognostic value of interim positron emission tomography scan in patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Oki, Yasuhiro; Chuang, Hubert; Chasen, Beth; Jessop, Aaron; Pan, Tinsu; Fanale, Michelle; Dabaja, Bouthaina; Fowler, Nathan; Romaguera, Jorge; Fayad, Luis; Hagemeister, Fredrick; Rodriguez, Maria Alma; Neelapu, Sattva; Samaniego, Felipe; Kwak, Larry; Younes, Anas

    2014-04-01

    The prognostic value of interim positron emission tomography (PET) was evaluated after 2 cycles of doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastin and dacarbazine in classical Hodgkin lymphoma patients (n = 229), based on Deauville criteria. In early stage non-bulky disease, bulky stage II disease, advanced stage low International Prognostic Score (IPS ≤2) and advanced stage (IPS ≥3), 3-year progression-free survival rates in PET2-negative vs. PET2-positive groups were 95·9% vs. 76·9% (P < 0·0018), 83·3% vs. 20·0% (P = 0·017), 77·0% vs. 30·0% (P < 0·001) and 71·0% vs. 44·4%(P = 0·155), respectively. The outcome after positive PET2 was better than previously reported. The results from non-randomized studies of PET2-guided therapy would be valuable with careful interpretation. PMID:24386943

  8. Prognostic Factors After Extraneural Metastasis of Medulloblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Mazloom, Ali; Zangeneh, Azy H.; Paulino, Arnold C.

    2010-09-01

    Purpose: To review the existing literature regarding the characteristics, prognostic factors, treatment, and survival of patients with medulloblastoma, who develop extraneural metastasis (ENM). Methods and Materials: A PubMed search of English language articles from 1961 to 2007 was performed, yielding 47 articles reporting on 119 patients. Factors analyzed included age, time interval to development of ENM, ENM location, central nervous system (CNS) involvement, treatment, and outcome. Results: Sites of ENM included bone in 84% of patients, bone marrow in 27% of patients, lymph nodes in 15% of patients, lung in 6% of patients, and liver in 6% of patients. Median survival was 8 months after diagnosis of ENM. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates after diagnosis of ENM were 41.9%, 31.0%, and 26.0%, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) rates after diagnosis of ENM were 34.5%, 23.2%, and 13.4%, respectively. For patients without CNS involvement at the time of ENM diagnosis, the 1-, 2-, and 5-year OS rates for those treated with and without radiotherapy (RT) were 82.4%, 64.8%, and 64.8% vs. 51.0%, 36.6%, and 30.5%, respectively (p = 0.03, log-rank test). RT did not significantly improve OS or PFS rates for those with CNS involvement. Concurrent CNS involvement, ENM in the lung or liver, a time interval of <18 months to development of ENM, and a patient age of <16 years at ENM diagnosis were found to be negative prognostic factors for both OS and PFS. Conclusions: Several prognostic factors were identified for patients with ENM from medulloblastoma. Patients without concurrent CNS involvement, who received RT after ENM diagnosis had an OS and PFS benefit compared to those who did not receive RT.

  9. Prognostic Factors in Cholinesterase Inhibitor Poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Sun, In O; Yoon, Hyun Ju; Lee, Kwang Young

    2015-01-01

    Background Organophosphates and carbamates are insecticides that are associated with high human mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors affecting survival in patients with cholinesterase inhibitor (CI) poisoning. Material/Methods This study included 92 patients with CI poisoning in the period from January 2005 to August 2013. We divided these patients into 2 groups (survivors vs. non-survivors), compared their clinical characteristics, and analyzed the predictors of survival. Results The mean age of the included patients was 56 years (range, 16–88). The patients included 57 (62%) men and 35 (38%) women. When we compared clinical characteristics between the survivor group (n=81, 88%) and non-survivor group (n=11, 12%), there were no differences in renal function, pancreatic enzymes, or serum cholinesterase level, except for serum bicarbonate level and APACHE II score. The serum bicarbonate level was lower in non-survivors than in survivors (12.45±2.84 vs. 18.36±4.73, P<0.01). The serum APACHE II score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (24.36±5.22 vs. 12.07±6.67, P<0.01). The development of pneumonia during hospitalization was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (n=9, 82% vs. n=31, 38%, P<0.01). In multiple logistic regression analysis, serum bicarbonate concentration, APACHE II score, and pneumonia during hospitalization were the important prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Conclusions Serum bicarbonate and APACHE II score are useful prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Furthermore, pneumonia during hospitalization was also important in predicting prognosis in patients with CI poisoning. Therefore, prevention and active treatment of pneumonia is important in the management of patients with CI poisoning. PMID:26411989

  10. Molecular predictive and prognostic factors in ependymoma.

    PubMed

    Benson, Rony; Mallick, Supriya; Julka, Pramod K; Rath, Goura K

    2016-01-01

    An ependymoma is an uncommon glial tumor, which arises from different parts of the neuroaxis. Considerable variation in presentation and survival in tumors in different locations after an optimum treatment indicates inherent molecular and genetic differences in tumorigenesis between them. A number of genetic aberrations have been identified to distinctly characterize different subgroups of ependymomas that include a posterior fossa tumor, a supratentorial tumor, and a pediatric tumor. These different groups have substantial genetic alterations, and also distinct demography, clinical characteristics, and prognosis. This article is intended to review the diverse molecular and genetic aberrations that may be helpful in prognostication and prediction of survival in patients suffering from an ependymoma. PMID:26954807

  11. Prognostic Factors in Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss

    PubMed Central

    Atay, Gamze; Kayahan, Bahar; çınar, Betül çiçek; Saraç, Sarp; Sennaroğlu, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Background: Sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) is still a complex and challenging process which requires clinical evidence regarding its etiology, treatment and prognostic factors. Therefore, determination of prognostic factors might aid in the selection of proper treatment modality. Aims: The aim of this study is to analyze whether there is correlation between SSNHL outcomes and (1) systemic steroid therapy, (2) time gap between onset of symptoms and initiation of therapy and (3) audiological pattern of hearing loss. Study Design: Retrospective chart review. Methods: Patients diagnosed at our clinic with SSNHL between May 2005 and December 2011 were reviewed. A detailed history of demographic features, side of hearing loss, previous SSNHL and/or ear surgery, recent upper respiratory tract infection, season of admission, duration of symptoms before admission and the presence of co-morbid diseases was obtained. Radiological and audiological evaluations were recorded and treatment protocol was assessed to determine whether systemic steroids were administered or not. Treatment started ≤5 days was regarded as “early” and >5 days as “delayed”. Initial audiological configurations were grouped as “upward sloping”, “downward sloping”, “flat” and “profound” hearing loss. Significant recovery was defined as thresholds improved to the same level with the unaffected ear or improved ≥30 dB on average. Slight recovery was hearing improvement between 10–30dB on average. Hearing recovery less than 10 dB was accepted as unchanged. Results: Among the 181 patients who met the inclusion criteria, systemic steroid was administered to 122 patients (67.4%), whereas 59 (32.6%) patients did not have steroids. It was found that steroid administration did not have any statistically significant effect in either recovered or unchanged hearing groups. Early treatment was achieved in 105 patients (58%) and 76 patients (42%) had delayed treatment. Recovery

  12. Cellular prognostic markers in hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Buonaguro, Luigi; Tagliamonte, Maria; Petrizzo, Annacarmen; Damiano, Elvira; Tornesello, Maria Lina; Buonaguro, Franco M

    2015-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the five big killers worldwide and is frequently associated with chronic hepatitis B and C virus (HBV and HCV) infections. Tumor microenvironment consists of a complex network of cells and factors that plays a key role in the tumor progression and prognosis. This is true also for HCC. Several studies have shown strikingly strong correlation between HCC clinical prognosis and intratumoral infiltration of cells affecting tumor growth, invasion, angiogenesis and metastasis. None of such cells is yet validated for routine diagnostic and prognostic assessment. The present review aims at providing a state-of-the-art of such studies. PMID:26043213

  13. Prognostic value of health-related quality of life for death risk stratification in patients with unresectable glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Paquette, Brice; Vernerey, Dewi; Chauffert, Bruno; Dabakuyo, Sandrine; Feuvret, Loic; Taillandier, Luc; Frappaz, Didier; Taillia, Hervé; Schott, Roland; Ducray, François; Fabbro, Michel; Tennevet, Isabelle; Ghiringhelli, François; Guillamo, Jean-Sébastien; Durando, Xavier; Castera, Daniel; Frenay, Marc; Campello, Chantal; Dalban, Cécile; Skrzypski, Jérome; Chinot, Olivier; Anota, Amélie; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-08-01

    Glioblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor in adults. Baseline health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a major subject of concern for these patients. We aimed to assess the independent prognostic value of HRQoL in unresectable glioblastoma (UGB) patients for death risk stratification. One hundred and thirty-four patients with UGB were enrolled from the TEMAVIR trial. HRQoL was evaluated at baseline using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and BN20 brain cancer module. Clinical and HRQoL parameters were evaluated in univariable and multivariable Cox analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were evaluated with Harrel's C-index, calibration plot, and bootstrap sample procedure. Two OS independent predictors were identified: future uncertainty and sensitivity deficit. The final model exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C statistic = 0.63). The internal validity of the model was verified with robust uncertainties around the hazard ratio. The prognostic score identified three groups of patients with distinctly different risk profiles with median OS estimated at 16.2, 9.2, and 4.5 months. We demonstrated the additional prognostic value of HRQoL in UGB for death risk stratification and provided a score that may help to guide clinical management and stratification in future clinical trials. PMID:27252150

  14. Prognostic factors in canine mammary cancer.

    PubMed

    Misdorp, W; Hart, A A

    1976-04-01

    From a follow-up study of dogs surgically treated for mammary cancer, ten characteristics were analyzed statistically with special reference to their association with prognosis (expressed as survival for 2 years). The interrelations among five of the characteristics were also tested. The histologic type (descending range in malignancy: sarcomas greater than simple carcinomas greater than complex carcinomas), mode of growth (highly infiltrating greater than moderately infiltrating greater than expansive), clinical stage of complex carcinomas (large tumors and/or tumors involving the skin or underlying tissue greater than small, well-defined tumors), and size (greater than 15 cm greater than 11-15 cm greater than 5-10 cm greater than 0-5 cm) were of definite prognostic importance. The histologic grade was of possible prognostic importance. Localization, type of surgical therapy (mastectomy, block-dissection), growth in lymph vessels, involvement of regional lymph nodes, and duration of symptoms before treatment were not important to prognosis. A comparison between the factors associated with the prognosis of canine and human mammary cancer showed many similarities. However, the involvement of regional lymph nodes, important in women, was not so in bitches. PMID:1255797

  15. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the end of life. The capability also provides an assessment of the remaining useful life of a hardware component. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. This project will use modeling techniques and algorithms to assess components' health andpredict remaining life for such components. The prognostics capability being developed will beused:during the design phase and during pre/post operations to conduct planning and analysis ofsystem design, maintenance & logistics plans, and system/mission operations plansduring real-time operations to monitor changes to components' health and assess their impacton operations.This capability will be interfaced to Ground Operations' command and control system as a part ofthe AGSM project to help assure system availability and mission success. The initial modelingeffort for this capability will be developed for Liquid Oxygen ground loading applications.

  16. Prognostics Applied to Electric Propulsion UAV

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Saha, Bhaskar

    2013-01-01

    Health management plays an important role in operations of UAV. If there is equipment malfunction on critical components, safe operation of the UAV might possibly be compromised. A technology with particular promise in this arena is equipment prognostics. This technology provides a state assessment of the health of components of interest and, if a degraded state has been found, it estimates how long it will take before the equipment will reach a failure threshold, conditional on assumptions about future operating conditions and future environmental conditions. This chapter explores the technical underpinnings of how to perform prognostics and shows an implementation on the propulsion of an electric UAV. A particle filter is shown as the method of choice in performing state assessment and predicting future degradation. The method is then applied to the batteries that provide power to the propeller motors. An accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm is of critical importance to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle if one wants to maximize in-air time. Current reliability based techniques turn out to be insufficient to manage the use of such batteries where loads vary frequently in uncertain environments.

  17. Epidemiologic and Molecular Prognostic Review of Glioblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Thakkar, Jigisha P.; Dolecek, Therese A.; Horbinski, Craig; Ostrom, Quinn T.; Lightner, Donita D.; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S.; Villano, John L.

    2014-01-01

    Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive primary CNS malignancy with a median survival of 15 months. The average incidence rate (IR) of GBM is 3.19/100,000 population and the median age of diagnosis is 64 years. Incidence is higher in men and individuals of white race and non-Hispanic ethnicity. Many genetic and environmental factors have been studied in GBM but the majority are sporadic and no risk factor accounting for a large proportion of GBMs has been identified. However, several favorable clinical prognostic factors are identified including, younger age at diagnosis, cerebellar location, high performance status and maximal tumor resection. GBMs comprise of primary and secondary subtypes which evolve through different genetic pathways, affect patients at different ages and have differences in outcomes. We report the current epidemiology of GBM with new data from the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) 2006–2010 as well as demonstrate and discuss trends in incidence and survival. We also provide a concise review on molecular markers in GBM that have helped distinguish biologically similar subtypes of GBM and have prognostic and predictive value. PMID:25053711

  18. Improving the Prognostic Ability through Better Use of Standard Clinical Data - The Nottingham Prognostic Index as an Example

    PubMed Central

    Winzer, Klaus-Jürgen; Buchholz, Anika; Schumacher, Martin; Sauerbrei, Willi

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognostic factors and prognostic models play a key role in medical research and patient management. The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is a well-established prognostic classification scheme for patients with breast cancer. In a very simple way, it combines the information from tumor size, lymph node stage and tumor grade. For the resulting index cutpoints are proposed to classify it into three to six groups with different prognosis. As not all prognostic information from the three and other standard factors is used, we will consider improvement of the prognostic ability using suitable analysis approaches. Methods and Findings Reanalyzing overall survival data of 1560 patients from a clinical database by using multivariable fractional polynomials and further modern statistical methods we illustrate suitable multivariable modelling and methods to derive and assess the prognostic ability of an index. Using a REMARK type profile we summarize relevant steps of the analysis. Adding the information from hormonal receptor status and using the full information from the three NPI components, specifically concerning the number of positive lymph nodes, an extended NPI with improved prognostic ability is derived. Conclusions The prognostic ability of even one of the best established prognostic index in medicine can be improved by using suitable statistical methodology to extract the full information from standard clinical data. This extended version of the NPI can serve as a benchmark to assess the added value of new information, ranging from a new single clinical marker to a derived index from omics data. An established benchmark would also help to harmonize the statistical analyses of such studies and protect against the propagation of many false promises concerning the prognostic value of new measurements. Statistical methods used are generally available and can be used for similar analyses in other diseases. PMID:26938061

  19. Vascular grading of angiogenesis: prognostic significance in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, S; Grabau, D A; Sørensen, F B; Bak, M; Vach, W; Rose, C

    2000-01-01

    The study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of angiogenesis by vascular grading of primary breast tumours, and to evaluate the prognostic impact of adding the vascular grade to the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). The investigation included 836 patients. The median follow-up time was 11 years and 4 months. The microvessels were immunohistochemically stained by antibodies against CD34. Angiogenesis was graded semiquantitatively by subjective scoring into three groups according to the expected number of microvessels in the most vascular tumour area. The vascular grading between observers was moderately reproduced (κ = 0.59). Vascular grade was significantly associated with axillary node involvement, tumour size, malignancy grade, oestrogen receptor status and histological type. In univariate analyses vascular grade significantly predicted recurrence free survival and overall survival for all patients (P< 0.0001), node-negative patients (P< 0.0001) and node-positive patients (P< 0.0001). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that vascular grading contributed with independent prognostic value in all patients (P< 0.0001). A prognostic index including the vascular grade had clinical impact for 24% of the patients, who had a shift in prognostic group, as compared to NPI, and implied a better prognostic dissemination. We concluded that the angiogenesis determined by vascular grading has independent prognostic value of clinical relevance for patients with breast cancer. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10646886

  20. Prognostic factors for sperm retrieval in non-obstructive azoospermia.

    PubMed

    Glina, Sidney; Vieira, Marcelo

    2013-01-01

    Testicular sperm retrieval techniques associated with intracytoplasmic sperm injection have changed the field of male infertility treatment and given many azoospermic men the chance to become biological fathers. Despite the current use of testicular sperm extraction, reliable clinical and laboratory prognostic factors of sperm recovery are still absent. The objective of this article was to review the prognostic factors and clinical use of sperm retrieval for men with non-obstructive azoospermia. The PubMed database was searched for the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms azoospermia, sperm retrieval, and prognosis. Papers on obstructive azoospermia were excluded. The authors selected articles that reported successful sperm retrieval techniques involving clinical, laboratory, or parenchyma processing methods. The selected papers were reviewed, and the prognostic factors were discussed. No reliable positive prognostic factors guarantee sperm recovery for patients with non-obstructive azoospermia. The only negative prognostic factor is the presence of AZFa and AZFb microdeletions. PMID:23503961

  1. Visceral adipose tissue is prognostic for survival of diffuse large B cell lymphoma treated with frontline R-CHOP.

    PubMed

    Shin, Dong-Yeop; Kim, Areumnuri; Byun, Byung Hyun; Moon, Hansol; Kim, Soyeun; Ko, Young-Jin; Kim, Min-Jung; Lee, Hyo-Rak; Kang, Hye-Jin; Na, Im Il; Park, Sunhoo; Lee, Seung Sook; Yang, Sung-Hyun

    2016-02-01

    The potential role of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) as a prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) treated with frontline rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (R-CHOP) immunochemotherapy was explored. Total adipose tissue and VAT were measured by analyzing positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) images obtained during the initial staging of patients with DLBCL. The VAT ratio was calculated as follows: VAT ratio = VAT area/total adipose tissue area. Body mass index (BMI), sex, and International Prognostic Index (IPI) were also incorporated as co-variates in the final model of multivariate Cox regression analysis for survival. A total of 156 patients with DLBCL, who were treated with frontline R-CHOP, were enrolled in our study. The median patient age was 61 years, and 81 patients were male (51.9 %). The median cycle of R-CHOP was six. The IPI risk group was a strong prognostic factor for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) (p < 0.001). Obese BMIs were an independent prognostic factor for PFS, but not for OS in multivariate analyses, compared to patients with normal BMIs (HR = 0.43, 95 % CI = 0.19-0.98, and p = 0.046 for PFS). A high VAT ratio (third tertile) was an independent adverse prognostic factor for PFS and OS in multivariate analyses (HR = 2.87 and 2.66, 95 % CI = 1.30-6.32 and 1.30-5.44, and p = 0.009 and 0.007 for PFS and OS, respectively). VAT ratio was an independent prognostic factor for patients with DLBCL treated with first-line R-CHOP; thus, additional large prospective studies are warranted. PMID:26658607

  2. Prognostic Value of Baseline Lymphocyte Count in Cervical Carcinoma Treated With Concurrent Chemoradiation

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Chel Hun; Kang, Heeseok; Kim, Woo Young; Kim, Tae-Joong; Lee, Jeong-Won; Huh, Seung Jae; Lee, Je-Ho; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Bae, Duk-Soo

    2008-05-01

    Purpose: This study examined factors predicting tumor response and progression-free survival in patients with locally advanced cervical carcinoma treated with concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT). Methods and Materials: Medical records of 143 patients with locally advanced cervical carcinoma (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Stage IB2 to IVA) treated with CCRT were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to retrospectively evaluate prognostic factors, including baseline lymphocyte count, that affect tumor response and progression-free survival. Results: Of the variables evaluated, greater baseline lymphocyte count was the factor most predictive of a complete clinical response, followed by smaller tumor size (p = 0.003 and p = 0.007, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed baseline lymphocyte count, which was treated as a continuous variable with every 1 x 10{sup 9} lymphocytes/L, to remain a prognostic factor with an odds ratio of 3.08 (95% confidence interval, 1.31-7.23). In addition, a statistically significant association (p = 0.023) was found between baseline lymphocyte count and progression-free survival, with a hazard ratio of 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.89) in the Cox proportional hazards model. Conclusions: Despite the small number of patients and possible biologic variation existing in lymphocyte subset number and activity, these findings highlight the strong prognostic value of baseline lymphocyte count in patients with locally advanced cervical carcinoma treated with CCRT. Therefore, a larger number of patients and analysis of lymphocyte subsets are needed.

  3. Prognostically important EEG coma patterns in diffuse anoxic and traumatic encephalopathies in adults.

    PubMed

    Synek, V M

    1988-04-01

    Because of the paucity in the English literature of a detailed and universally accepted EEG grading scale relating to survival after diffuse traumatic and anoxic brain insults, prognostically oriented EEG patterns including recently described abnormalities are presented and discussed. The significance of these patterns may also apply in cases of coma of other etiologies, which can present morphologically similar features. EEG patterns have been classified into five major grades based on an internationally accepted scale. Individual patterns have been more clearly defined on the basis of the morphology of dominant activities, their distribution, persistence, and reactivity to external stimulation. Favorable outcome with survival seems to occur with both grade 1 and the "reactive type" of grade 2 abnormalities, with preservation of normal sleep features, and with frontal monorhythmic delta activity. Prognostically uncertain patterns are "nonreactive" grade 2 abnormalities, diffuse delta activity with grade 3 abnormality, and the "reactive type of alpha pattern coma." The following patterns are suggested to be prognostically malignant if persistent: grade 3 abnormality with small amplitude, diffuse, irregular delta activity; grade 4 ("burst suppression pattern"), in particular when epileptiform discharges are present and with "low-output EEG"; and grade 5 ("isoelectric EEG"). Fatal outcome is also common with the "nonreactive type of alpha pattern coma" and the recently reported "theta pattern coma." These patterns are presented in the illustrations. It is intended that this more detailed subdivision will promote understanding between electroencephalographers using visual EEG assessment in cases of coma. PMID:3074973

  4. Performance of four ischemic stroke prognostic scores in a Brazilian population.

    PubMed

    Kuster, Gustavo W; Dutra, Lívia A; Brasil, Israel P; Pacheco, Evelyn P; Arruda, Márcio J C; Volcov, Cristiane; Domingues, Renan B

    2016-02-01

    Objective Ischemic stroke (IS) prognostic scales may help clinicians in their clinical decisions. This study aimed to assess the performance of four IS prognostic scales in a Brazilian population. Method We evaluated data of IS patients admitted at Hospital Paulistano, a Joint Commission International certified primary stroke center. In-hospital mortality and modified Rankin score at discharge were defined as the outcome measures. The performance of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Stroke Prognostication Using Age and NIHSS (SPAN-100), Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) were compared. Results Two hundred six patients with a mean ± SD age of 67.58 ± 15.5 years, being 55.3% male, were included. The four scales were significantly and independently associated functional outcome. Only THRIVE was associated with in-hospital mortality. With area under the curve THRIVE and NIHSS were the scales with better performance for functional outcome and THRIVE had the best performance for mortality. Conclusion THRIVE showed the best performance among the four scales, being the only associated with in-hospital mortality. PMID:26982991

  5. Fault Diagnostics and Prognostics for Large Segmented SRMs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luchinsky, Dmitry; Osipov, Viatcheslav V.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Uckun, Serdar; Hayashida, Ben; Watson, Michael; McMillin, Joshua; Shook, David; Johnson, Mont; Hyde, Scott

    2009-01-01

    We report progress in development of the fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) system for large segmented solid rocket motors (SRMs). The model includes the following main components: (i) 1D dynamical model of internal ballistics of SRMs; (ii) surface regression model for the propellant taking into account erosive burning; (iii) model of the propellant geometry; (iv) model of the nozzle ablation; (v) model of a hole burning through in the SRM steel case. The model is verified by comparison of the spatially resolved time traces of the flow parameters obtained in simulations with the results of the simulations obtained using high-fidelity 2D FLUENT model (developed by the third party). To develop FD&P system of a case breach fault for a large segmented rocket we notice [1] that the stationary zero-dimensional approximation for the nozzle stagnation pressure is surprisingly accurate even when stagnation pressure varies significantly in time during burning tail-off. This was also found to be true for the case breach fault [2]. These results allow us to use the FD&P developed in our earlier research [3]-[6] by substituting head stagnation pressure with nozzle stagnation pressure. The axial corrections to the value of the side thrust due to the mass addition are taken into account by solving a system of ODEs in spatial dimension.

  6. Combined Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Index for Relapse and Survival in Cytogenetically Normal Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Pastore, Friederike; Dufour, Annika; Benthaus, Tobias; Metzeler, Klaus H.; Maharry, Kati S.; Schneider, Stephanie; Ksienzyk, Bianka; Mellert, Gudrun; Zellmeier, Evelyn; Kakadia, Purvi M.; Unterhalt, Michael; Feuring-Buske, Michaela; Buske, Christian; Braess, Jan; Sauerland, Maria Cristina; Heinecke, Achim; Krug, Utz; Berdel, Wolfgang E.; Buechner, Thomas; Woermann, Bernhard; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Bohlander, Stefan K.; Marcucci, Guido; Spiekermann, Karsten; Bloomfield, Clara D.; Hoster, Eva

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Cytogenetically normal (CN) acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the largest and most heterogeneous cytogenetic AML subgroup. For the practicing clinician, it is difficult to summarize the prognostic information of the growing number of clinical and molecular markers. Our purpose was to develop a widely applicable prognostic model by combining well-established pretreatment patient and disease characteristics. Patients and Methods Two prognostic indices for CN-AML (PINA), one regarding overall survival (OS; PINAOS) and the other regarding relapse-free survival (RFS; PINARFS), were derived from data of 572 patients with CN-AML treated within the AML Cooperative Group 99 study (www.aml-score.org). Results On the basis of age (median, 60 years; range, 17 to 85 years), performance status, WBC count, and mutation status of NPM1, CEBPA, and FLT3-internal tandem duplication, patients were classified into the following three risk groups according to PINAOS and PINARFS: 29% of all patients and 32% of 381 responding patients had low-risk disease (5-year OS, 74%; 5-year RFS, 55%); 56% of all patients and 39% of responding patients had intermediate-risk disease (5-year OS, 28%; 5-year RFS, 27%), and 15% of all patients and 29% of responding patients had high-risk disease (5-year OS, 3%; 5-year RFS, 5%), respectively. PINAOS and PINARFS stratified outcome within European LeukemiaNet genetic groups. Both indices were confirmed on independent data from Cancer and Leukemia Group B/Alliance trials. Conclusion We have developed and validated, to our knowledge, the first prognostic indices specifically designed for adult patients of all ages with CN-AML that combine well-established molecular and clinical variables and that are easily applicable in routine clinical care. The integration of both clinical and molecular markers could provide a basis for individualized patient care through risk-adapted therapy of CN-AML. PMID:24711548

  7. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the breast: prognostic factors and treatment outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Yao; Joks, Monika; Xu, Li-Ming; Chen, Xiu-Li; Qian, Dong; You, Jin-Qiang; Yuan, Zhi-Yong

    2016-01-01

    Background The breast is a rare site of extranodal involvement of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We aimed to assess the clinical characteristics, prognostic factors, and treatment outcomes of breast DLBCL. Patients and methods We retrospectively analyzed 113 patients (from our institution and the literature) between 1973 and 2014. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). Kaplan–Meier OS curves were compared with the log-rank test. Cox regression analysis was applied to determine the prognostic factors for OS, progression-free survival (PFS), local control (LC), and cause-specific survival (CSS). Results A total of 113 patients were included in the study: 42 cases from our hospital and 71 cases from 12 publications. The median age at diagnosis was 58 years. With a median follow-up time of 39.2 months, the estimated 5-year OS, PFS, LC, and CSS were 71.4%, 58.8%, 75.6%, and 74.9%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, more than four cycles of chemotherapy, having localized cancer, lumpectomy with or without axillary lymph node (ALN) dissection, and low to low-to-intermediate International Prognostic Index were favorable factors for OS. For PFS, significant prognostic factors were rituximab use, B symptoms, and tumor size. As for the local group, lumpectomy with or without ALN dissection and more than four cycles of chemotherapy were favorable factors for OS. Tumor size >4 cm and nonuse of rituximab were adverse factors for PFS. Twenty-one patients (18.6%) developed local relapse and 33 (29.2%) developed systemic relapse. Eight patients had central nervous system relapse (7.3%). Conclusion Our results reveal that local and extended staging criteria can reflect the different prognosis and treatment outcomes of breast DLBCL. Rituximab use, lumpectomy, and more than four cycles of chemotherapy are recommended as a treatment regimen. However, further study is warranted to validate our data. PMID:27103833

  8. Proposal of a new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis of 403 patients

    PubMed Central

    Tateishi, R; Yoshida, H; Shiina, S; Imamura, H; Hasegawa, K; Teratani, T; Obi, S; Sato, S; Koike, Y; Fujishima, T; Makuuchi, M; Omata, M

    2005-01-01

    Background: The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is highly dependent on tumour extension and liver function. Recently, two new prognostic scoring systems—the CLIP score, developed by Italian investigators and the BCLC score, developed in Barcelona—have been widely used to assess prognosis in patients presenting with hepatocellular carcinoma. Each system has its own relative limitations. Aims: To create a new prognostic scoring system which is simple, easy to calculate, and suitable for estimating prognosis during radical treatment of early HCC. Methods: A total of 403 consecutive patients with HCC treated by percutaneous ablation at the Department of Gastroenterology, University of Tokyo Hospital, between 1990 and 1997 were used as the training sample to identify prognostic factors for our patients and used to develop the Tokyo score. As a testing sample, 203 independent patients who underwent hepatectomy at the Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery were studied. Prognostic factors were analysed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: The Tokyo score consists of four factors: serum albumin, bilirubin, and size and number of tumours. Five year survival was 78.7%, 62.1%, 40.0%, 27.7%, and 14.3% for Tokyo scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4–6, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the Tokyo score was internally validated by bootstrap methods. The Tokyo score, CLIP score, and BCLC staging were compared by Akaike information criterion and Harrell’s c index among training and testing samples. In the testing sample, the predictive ability of the Tokyo score was equal to CLIP and better than BCLC staging. Conclusions: The Tokyo score is a simple system which provides good prediction of prognosis for Japanese patients with HCC requiring radical therapy. PMID:15710994

  9. Adverse Prognostic Impact of Bone Marrow Microvessel Density in Multiple Myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Nuri; Lee, Hyewon; Moon, Soo Young; Sohn, Ji Yeon; Hwang, Sang Mee; Yoon, Ok Jin; Youn, Hye Sun

    2015-01-01

    Background Angiogenesis is important for the proliferation and survival of multiple myeloma (MM) cells. Bone marrow (BM) microvessel density (MVD) is a useful marker of angiogenesis and is determined by immunohistochemical staining with anti-CD34 antibody. This study investigated the prognostic impact of MVD and demonstrated the relationship between MVD and previously mentioned prognostic factors in patients with MM. Methods The study included 107 patients with MM. MVD was assessed at initial diagnosis in a blinded manner by two hematopathologists who examined three CD34-positive hot spots per patient and counted the number of vessels in BM samples. Patients were divided into three groups according to MVD tertiles. Cumulative progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, calculated by using Kaplan-Meier method, were compared among the three groups. Prognostic impact of MVD was assessed by calculating Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR). Results Median MVDs in the three groups were 16.8, 33.9, and 54.7. MVDs were correlated with other prognostic factors, including β2-microglobulin concentration, plasma cell percentage in the BM, and cancer stage according to the International Staging System. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that high MVD was an independent predictor of PFS (HR=2.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.42; P=0.013). PFS was significantly lower in the high MVD group than in the low MVD group (P=0.025). However, no difference was observed in the OS (P=0.428). Conclusions Increased BM MVD is a marker of poor prognosis in patients newly diagnosed with MM. BM MVD should be assessed at the initial diagnosis of MM. PMID:26354343

  10. TP53 Mutational Analysis Enhances the Prognostic Accuracy of IHC4 and PAM50 Assays

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Chen, I-Chiun; Huang, Chiun-Sheng; Hu, Fu-Chang; Kuo, Wen-Hung; Kuo, Kuan-Ting; Wang, Chung-Chieh; Wu, Pei-Fang; Chang, Dwan-Ying; Wang, Ming-Yang; Chang, Chin-Hao; Chen, Wei-Wu; Lu, Yen-Shen; Cheng, Ann-Lii

    2015-01-01

    IHC4 and PAM50 assays have been shown to provide additional prognostic information for patients with early breast cancer. We evaluated whether incorporating TP53 mutation analysis can further enhance their prognostic accuracy. We examined TP53 mutation and the IHC4 score in tumors of 605 patients diagnosed with stage I–III breast cancer at National Taiwan University Hospital (the NTUH cohort). We obtained information regarding TP53 mutation and PAM50 subtypes in 699 tumors from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) cohort. We found that TP53 mutation was significantly associated with high-risk IHC4 group and with luminal B, HER2-enriched, and basal-like subtypes. Despite the strong associations, TP53 mutation independently predicted shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63, P = 0.007) in the NTUH cohort and shorter breast cancer-specific survival (HR = 2.35, P = <0.001) in the METABRIC cohort. TP53 mutational analysis added significant prognostic information in addition to the IHC4 score (∆ LR-χ2 = 8.61, P = 0.002) in the NTUH cohort and the PAM50 subtypes (∆ LR-χ2 = 18.9, P = <0.001) in the METABRIC cohort. We conclude that incorporating TP53 mutation analysis can enhance the prognostic accuracy of the IHC4 and PAM50 assays. PMID:26671300

  11. Prognostic factors for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the R(X)CHOP era

    PubMed Central

    Vaidya, R.; Witzig, T. E.

    2014-01-01

    Background The introduction of rituximab (R) to conventional CHOP chemotherapy for newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) led to an unequivocal improvement in survival, establishing RCHOP as the standard of care. Still, nearly 40% of DLBCL patients will eventually die of relapsed disease. Efforts to improve outcomes by addition of new biologic agents (X) to the RCHOP backbone are underway. In this era of R(X)CHOP, it is imperative to develop prognostic and predictive markers, not only to identify patients who will suffer a particularly aggressive course, but also to accurately select patients for clinical trials from which they will most benefit. Design The following review was undertaken to describe prognostic factors in DLBCL, with emphasis on markers that are accurate, relatively available, and clinically applicable in 2014. Results The International Prognostic Index retains its validity in the era of RCHOP, although with limited ability to predict those with <50% chance of long-term survival. Gene expression profiling has provided novel insights into the biology of DLBCL and led to the development of immunohistochemistry (IHC) algorithms that are in routine practice. Identification of a ‘double-hit’ (DH) lymphoma by fluorescent in situ hybridization with aberrations involving MYC and/or BCL2 and BCL6 genes has important implications due to its extremely dismal prognosis with RCHOP. Other markers such as the absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), serum immunoglobulin free light chains, vitamin D levels, serum cytokines/chemokines, and imaging with positron emission tomography (PET) have all shown promise as future predictive/prognostic tests. Conclusions The future for new treatment options in DLBCL is promising with current clinical trials testing novel targeted agents such as bortezomib, lenalidomide, and ibrutinib as the ‘X’ in R(X)CHOP. Predictive factors are required to select and randomize patients appropriately for these trials. We

  12. Prognostic significance of pleural or pericardial effusion and the implication of optimal treatment in primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma: a multicenter retrospective study in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Aoki, Tomohiro; Izutsu, Koji; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Nakaseko, Chiaki; Arima, Hiroshi; Shimada, Kazuyuki; Tomita, Akihiro; Sasaki, Makoto; Takizawa, Jun; Mitani, Kinuko; Igarashi, Tadahiko; Maeda, Yoshinobu; Fukuhara, Noriko; Ishida, Fumihiro; Niitsu, Nozomi; Ohmachi, Ken; Takasaki, Hirotaka; Nakamura, Naoya; Kinoshita, Tomohiro; Nakamura, Shigeo; Ogura, Michinori

    2014-01-01

    The prognosis of patients with primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma has improved over recent years. However, the optimal treatment strategy including the role of radiotherapy remains unknown. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical outcomes of 345 patients with newly diagnosed primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma in Japan. With a median follow up of 48 months, the overall survival at four years for patients treated with R-CHOP (n=187), CHOP (n=44), DA-EPOCH-R (n=9), 2nd- or 3rd-generation regimens, and chemotherapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation were 90%, 67%, 100%, 91% and 92%, respectively. Focusing on patients treated with R-CHOP, a higher International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion were identified as adverse prognostic factors for overall survival in patients treated with R-CHOP without consolidative radiotherapy (IPI: hazard ratio 4.23, 95% confidence interval 1.48–12.13, P=0.007; effusion: hazard ratio 4.93, 95% confidence interval 1.37–17.69, P=0.015). Combined with the International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion for the stratification of patients treated with R-CHOP without radiotherapy, patients with lower International Prognostic Index score and the absence of effusion comprised approximately one-half of these patients and could be identified as curable patients (95% overall survival at 4 years). The DA-EPOCH-R regimen might overcome the effect of these adverse prognostic factors. Our simple indicators of International Prognostic Index score and the presence of pleural or pericardial effusion could stratify patients with primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma and help guide selection of treatment. PMID:25216682

  13. Healthy aging and age-adjusted nutrition and physical fitness.

    PubMed

    Hammar, Mats; Ostgren, Carl Johan

    2013-10-01

    Expected life span is gradually increasing worldwide. Healthy dietary and exercise habits contribute to healthy ageing. Certain types of diet can prevent or reduce obesity, and may reduce the risk of diseases (e.g., cardiovascular disease). Exercise also reduces the risk of diseases (e.g., cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, some cancers and some mental disturbances). A less sedentary life style seems at least as important as regular exercise. Exercise can probably be tailored to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and extent of bone loss. To ensure adherence, it is important to increase slowly the frequency, duration and intensity of exercise, and to find activities that suit the individual. More research is needed to find ideal modes and doses of exercise, and to increase long-term adherence. Dietary and exercise modification seem to be strong promoters of healthy ageing. PMID:23499263

  14. To Correct or Not to Correct: Age Adjustment for Prematurity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aylward, Glen P.; And Others

    To evaluate whether conceptional or chronologic age should be used to determine scores in developmental follow-up studies, a study was made of 236 normal and 66 neurologically abnormal infants who were similar with respect to conceptional age but different with respect to degree of prematurity. Assessments of possible differences in cognitive and…

  15. Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss; Prognostic Factors

    PubMed Central

    Arjun, Dass; Neha, Goel; Surinder K, Singhal; Ravi, Kapoor

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) is a frightening and frustrating symptom for the patient as well as the physician. Prognosis is affected by multiple factors including duration of hearing loss, presence of associated vertigo and tinnitus, and co-morbidities such as hypertension and diabetes. Materials and Methods: Forty subjects presenting to our department with features of sudden hearing loss were included in the study. Detailed otological history and examination, serial audiometric findings and course of disease were studied. Results: Subjects presenting late (in older age), having associated vertigo, hypertension and diabetes had a significantly lower rate of recovery. Conclusion: Only 60–65% of patients experiencing SSNHL recover within a period of 1 month; this rate is further affected by presence of multiple prognostic indicators. PMID:26568939

  16. Prognostic and predictive markers in pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Le, Nha; Sund, Malin; Vinci, Alessio

    2016-03-01

    Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is characterized by a poor prognosis and a low median survival, despite improvements observed for many other solid tumours. Intensive research efforts have been undertaken during the last decades to discover new prognostic and treatment predictive biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The mainstay of medical treatment for the disease has been the well-tolerated nucleoside analogue, gemcitabine. The only targeted agent currently used in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients is the epithelial growth factor receptor inhibitor erlotinib in combination with gemcitabine. Recently, treatment regimens such as a combination of fluorouracil-leucovorin-irinotecan-oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) and the combination of nab-paclitaxel with gemcitabine have been introduced for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Although these treatment regimens significantly improve survival of patients, there are no good predictive biomarkers available that can be used to identify who would benefit most from them. Therefore, the search for predictive biomarkers that would facilitate personalization of chemotherapy is highly relevant. PMID:26769569

  17. Prognostic Significance of Imaging Myocardial Sympathetic Innervation.

    PubMed

    Malhotra, Saurabh; Fernandez, Stanley F; Fallavollita, James A; Canty, John M

    2015-08-01

    There has been a longstanding interest in understanding whether the presence of inhomogeneity in myocardial sympathetic innervation can predict patients at risk of sudden cardiac arrest from lethal ventricular arrhythmias. The advent of radiolabeled norepinephrine analogs has allowed this to be imaged in patients with ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy using single, photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET). Several observational studies have demonstrated that globally elevated myocardial sympathetic tone (as reflected by reduced myocardial norepinephrine analog uptake) can predict composite cardiac end-points including total cardiovascular mortality. More recent studies have indicated that quantifying the extent of regional denervation can predict the risk of lethal ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. This review will summarize our current understanding of the prognostic significance of altered myocardial sympathetic innervation. PMID:26087899

  18. Sensor Systems for Prognostics and Health Management

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Shunfeng; Azarian, Michael H.; Pecht, Michael G.

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an enabling discipline consisting of technologies and methods to assess the reliability of a product in its actual life cycle conditions to determine the advent of failure and mitigate system risk. Sensor systems are needed for PHM to monitor environmental, operational, and performance-related characteristics. The gathered data can be analyzed to assess product health and predict remaining life. In this paper, the considerations for sensor system selection for PHM applications, including the parameters to be measured, the performance needs, the electrical and physical attributes, reliability, and cost of the sensor system, are discussed. The state-of-the-art sensor systems for PHM and the emerging trends in technologies of sensor systems for PHM are presented. PMID:22219686

  19. Clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of primary gastric lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yi-Gao; Zhao, Lin-Yong; Liu, Chuan-Qi; Pan, Si-Cheng; Chen, Xiao-Long; Liu, Kai; Zhang, Wei-Han; Yang, Kun; Chen, Xin-Zu; Zhang, Bo; Chen, Zhi-Xin; Chen, Jia-Ping; Zhou, Zong-Guang; Hu, Jian-Kun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Primary gastric lymphoma (PGL) is the most common extranodal non-Hodgkin lymphoma. This retrospective study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics, prognostic factors, and roles of different treatment modalities in patients with PGL. From January 2003 to November 2014, 165 patients who were diagnosed with PGL at West China Hospital were enrolled in this study. The clinical features, treatment, and follow-up information were analyzed. In this study, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (108, 65.5%) and mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma (52, 31.5%) were two predominant histological subtypes. One-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of all patients were 95.2% and 79.5%, respectively; in whom 110 (66.7%) underwent surgery, 110 (66.7%) received chemotherapy, 12 (7.3%) received radiotherapy, and 10 (6.1%) received Helicobacter pylori eradication. And 75 patients (45.5%) were treated with at least 2 different types of therapies. Elevated lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, poor performance status (PS), advanced stage, International Prognostic Index (IPI) score ≥3, conservative treatment, and high-grade histological subtype were associated with worse prognosis in univariate analysis. Cox regression analysis showed that LDH levels, PS, staging, and histological subtype were independent predictors of survival outcomes. In the DLBCL type, 5-year OS was significantly better in the surgically treated group (80.1%) than that of patients conservatively treated (49.8%) (P = 0.001). Surgical treatment had almost no impact on OS in the MALT type than conservative treatment (P = 0.597). The proportion of patients received conservative treatment increased from 4.5% in period 1 to 51.7% in period 4. High LDH levels, poor PS, advanced staging, and malignant pathological type at diagnosis are significantly associated with poor OS. Our data suggest that surgery is superior in prognosis over conservative treatment in the DLBCL type, but not

  20. Nonrhabdomyosarcomatous abdominopelvic sarcomas: Analysis of prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Iqbal, Nida; Shukla, Nootan K.; Deo, S. V. S.; Agarwala, Sandeep; Sharma, D. N.; Sharma, Meher C.; Bakhshi, Sameer

    2016-01-01

    Background: Data concerning treatment outcome and prognostic factors in sarcomas of abdomen and pelvis are sparse in literature. Methods and Results: Of 696 patients with nonrhabdomyosarcomatous soft tissue sarcoma registered at our center between June 2003 and December 2012, 112 (16%) patients of sarcomas arising from abdomen and pelvis were identified, of which 88 patients were analyzed for treatment outcome and prognostic factors. The median age was 40 years (range: 1–78 years) with a male: female ratio of 0.7:1. Twenty-one (24%) patients were metastatic at baseline. The most common tumor sites were retroperitoneum in 70% patients and abdominal wall in 18% patients. Leiomyosarcoma was the most common histological subtype in 36% patients followed by liposarcoma in 17% patients. Thirty-five (40%) patients had Grade III tumors. Forty-six (52%) patients underwent surgical resection. At a median follow-up of 43 months (range: 2–94 months), the 5-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were 35% and 42%, with a median of 22 months and 43 months, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified male gender (P - 0.03, hazard ratio [HR] - 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.23–0.92), baseline metastatic disease (P - 0.01, HR - 2.98, 95% CI - 1.27–6.98) and Grade III tumors (P - 0.02, HR - 1.84, 95% CI - 1.08–3.13) as factors associated with poor EFS, whereas baseline metastatic disease (P < 0.001, HR - 5.45, 95% CI - 2.31–12.87) and unresectability (P - 0.01, HR - 2.72, 95% CI - 1.27–5.83) were associated with poor OS. Conclusion: This is a single-institutional study of patients with abdominopelvic sarcomas where gender was identified as a new factor affecting survival apart from baseline presentation, histologic grade, and surgical resection. PMID:27168708

  1. Minimally invasive follicular thyroid carcinomas: prognostic factors.

    PubMed

    Stenson, Gustav; Nilsson, Inga-Lena; Mu, Ninni; Larsson, Catharina; Lundgren, Catharina Ihre; Juhlin, C Christofer; Höög, Anders; Zedenius, Jan

    2016-08-01

    Although minimally invasive follicular thyroid carcinoma (MI-FTC) is regarded as an indolent tumour, treatment strategies remain controversial. Our aim was to investigate the outcome for patients with MI-FTC and to identify prognostic parameters to facilitate adequate treatment and follow-up. This retrospective follow-up study involved all cases of MI-FTC operated at the Karolinska University Hospital between 1986 and 2009. Outcome was analysed using death from MI-FTC as endpoint. Fifty-eight patients (41 women and 17 men) with MI-FTC were identified. The median follow-up time was 140 (range 21-308) months. Vascular invasion was observed in 36 cases and was associated with larger tumour size [median 40 (20-76) compared with 24 (10-80) mm for patients with capsular invasion only (P = 0.001)] and older patients [54 (20-92) vs. 44 (11-77) years; P = 0.019]. Patients with vascular invasion were more often treated with thyroidectomy (21/36 compared to 7/22 with capsular invasion only; P = 0.045). Five patients died from metastatic disease of FTC after a median follow-up of 114 (range 41-193) months; all were older than 50 years (51-72) at the time of the initial surgery; vascular invasion was present in all tumours and all but one were treated with thyroidectomy. Univariate analysis identified combined capsular and vascular invasion (P = 0.034), age at surgery ≥50 years (P = 0.023) and male gender (P = 0.005) as related to risk of death from MI-FTC. MI-FTC should not be considered a purely indolent disease. Age at diagnosis and the existence of combined capsular and vascular invasion were identified as important prognostic factors. PMID:26858184

  2. Prognostic factors in patients with intracerebral haematoma.

    PubMed Central

    Franke, C L; van Swieten, J C; Algra, A; van Gijn, J

    1992-01-01

    In a prospective study, the prognostic value of clinical characteristics in 157 consecutive patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral haemorrhage were examined by means of multivariate analysis. Two days after the event 37 (24%) patients had died. Factors independently contributing to the prediction of two day mortality were pineal gland displacement on CT of 3 mm or more (p less than 0.001), blood glucose level on admission of 8.0 mmol/l or more (p = 0.01), eye and motor score on the Glasgow Coma Scale of eight out of 10 or less (p = 0.022) and haematoma volume of 40 cm3 or more (p = 0.037). Between the third day and one year after the event another 46 of the 120 two day survivors had died; the independent prognostic indicators for death during that period were: age 70 years or more (p less than 0.001) and severe handicap (Rankin grade five) on the third day (p less than 0.001). Functional independence (Rankin grade two or less) at one year was most common not only with the converse features of age less than 70 years (p less than 0.01) and Rankin grade four or less on the third day (p = 0.002), but also with an eye and motor score on the Glasgow Coma Scale of nine or 10 on the third day (p less than 0.001). The 120 patients with intracerebral haemorrhage who were still alive two days after the event were matched with 120 patients with cerebral infarction, according to age, level of consciousness on the third day after stroke (Glasgow Coma Scale) and handicap (Rankin grade). Survival and handicap after one year did not differ between these two groups. The conclusion drawn is that it is not the cause (intracerebral haemorrhage or cerebral infarction) but the extent of the brain lesion that determines the outcome in patients who survive the first two days. PMID:1527534

  3. Accelerated Aging in Electrolytic Capacitors for Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan; Saha, Sankalita; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this work is the analysis of different degradation phenomena based on thermal overstress and electrical overstress accelerated aging systems and the use of accelerated aging techniques for prognostics algorithm development. Results on thermal overstress and electrical overstress experiments are presented. In addition, preliminary results toward the development of physics-based degradation models are presented focusing on the electrolyte evaporation failure mechanism. An empirical degradation model based on percentage capacitance loss under electrical overstress is presented and used in: (i) a Bayesian-based implementation of model-based prognostics using a discrete Kalman filter for health state estimation, and (ii) a dynamic system representation of the degradation model for forecasting and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. A leave-one-out validation methodology is used to assess the validity of the methodology under the small sample size constrain. The results observed on the RUL estimation are consistent through the validation tests comparing relative accuracy and prediction error. It has been observed that the inaccuracy of the model to represent the change in degradation behavior observed at the end of the test data is consistent throughout the validation tests, indicating the need of a more detailed degradation model or the use of an algorithm that could estimate model parameters on-line. Based on the observed degradation process under different stress intensity with rest periods, the need for more sophisticated degradation models is further supported. The current degradation model does not represent the capacitance recovery over rest periods following an accelerated aging stress period.

  4. Prognostic factors and classification in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed Central

    San Miguel, J. F.; Sànchez, J.; Gonzalez, M.

    1989-01-01

    Analyses of prognostic factors have allowed the design of staging systems in different haematological disorders. In a series of 220 patients with multiple myeloma, univariate analysis showed that nine parameters had a significant adverse effect on survival; poor performance status (Karnowsky scaling system less than 70%), infections before diagnosis, renal impairment (assessed either by creatinine clearance greater than 2 mg dl-1 or urea greater than 40 mg dl-1), serum calcium (greater than 10 mg dl-1), severe anaemia (less than 8.5 g dl-1), the presence of Bence-Jones proteinuria, failure to achieve complete remission, more than 40% plasma cells in bone marrow and a low paraprotein index (monoclonal component/% plasma cells: P less than 0.09). In addition, this index correlated significantly with all the other prognostic factors except performance status. The best combination of disease characteristics selected by means of the Cox regression proportional hazards method were performance status and creatinine levels. Additionally, by factor analysis of principal components we obtained a regression equation that included creatinine levels, haemoglobin, performance status and paraprotein index. Using this it was possible to separate the series of patients into three risk categories: A (65 patients), B (69 patients) and C (65 patients) with a median survival of 41, 24 and 12 months, respectively. The model provided similar results to those of the British Medical Research Council, whereas the staging systems proposed by Durie and Salmon, Merlin et al. and Carbone et al. had a lower discriminant value in our series. PMID:2757917

  5. Prognostic impact of stress testing in coronary artery disease

    SciTech Connect

    Severi, S.; Michelassi, C. )

    1991-05-01

    Observational data prospectively collected permit the examination of a complex set of decisions, including the decision not to perform any stress testing. Patients with or without previous myocardial infarction admitted for coronary evaluation and not submitted to any stress testing because of clinical reasons are at a higher risk for subsequent death. For prognostication, no test has been better validated than exercise electrocardiography: it can identify patients at low and high risk for future cardiac events among those without symptoms, with typical chest pain, and with previous myocardial infarction. In patients with triple-vessel disease, the results of exercise also allow those at low and high risk to be recognized. Both exercise radionuclide angiography and {sup 201}Tl scintigraphy (the latter in larger patient populations) have also demonstrated significant prognostic value on patients with or without previous myocardial infarction. Neither one has shown superiority to the other in prognostication. So far, they have been considered the only viable alternatives to exercise electrocardiography stress testing for diagnosis and prognostication. However, their costs limit their extensive application. Preliminary data suggest that intravenous dipyridamole echocardiography can be used for both diagnosis and prognostication of coronary artery disease; moreover, the prognostic information derived from dipyridamole echocardiography testing seems independent of and additive to that provided by exercise electrocardiography. Further prospective studies on larger patient populations are needed to better define the prognostic value of dipyridamole echocardiography testing.47 references.

  6. Presence of FLT3-ITD and high BAALC expression are independent prognostic markers in childhood acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Staffas, Anna; Kanduri, Meena; Hovland, Randi; Rosenquist, Richard; Ommen, Hans Beier; Abrahamsson, Jonas; Forestier, Erik; Jahnukainen, Kirsi; Jónsson, Ólafur G; Zeller, Bernward; Palle, Josefine; Lönnerholm, Gudmar; Hasle, Henrik; Palmqvist, Lars; Ehrencrona, Hans

    2011-11-24

    Mutation status of FLT3, NPM1, CEBPA, and WT1 genes and gene expression levels of ERG, MN1, BAALC, FLT3, and WT1 have been identified as possible prognostic markers in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We have performed a thorough prognostic evaluation of these genetic markers in patients with pediatric AML enrolled in the Nordic Society of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology (NOPHO) 1993 or NOPHO 2004 protocols. Mutation status and expression levels were analyzed in 185 and 149 patients, respectively. Presence of FLT3-internal tandem duplication (ITD) was associated with significantly inferior event-free survival (EFS), whereas presence of an NPM1 mutation in the absence of FLT3-ITD correlated with significantly improved EFS. Furthermore, high levels of ERG and BAALC transcripts were associated with inferior EFS. No significant correlation with survival was seen for mutations in CEBPA and WT1 or with gene expression levels of MN1, FLT3, and WT1. In multivariate analysis, the presence of FLT3-ITD and high BAALC expression were identified as independent prognostic markers of inferior EFS. We conclude that analysis of the mutational status of FLT3 and NPM1 at diagnosis is important for prognostic stratification of patients with pediatric AML and that determination of the BAALC gene expression level can add valuable information. PMID:21967978

  7. Identification of MUM1 as a prognostic immunohistochemical marker in follicular lymphoma using computerized image analysis.

    PubMed

    Xerri, Luc; Bachy, Emmanuel; Fabiani, Bettina; Canioni, Danielle; Chassagne-Clément, Catherine; Dartigues-Cuilléres, Peggy; Charlotte, Frédéric; Brousse, Nicole; Rousselet, Marie-Christine; Foussard, Charles; Brice, Pauline; Feugier, Pierre; Morschhauser, Frank; Sonet, Anne; Olive, Daniel; Salles, Gilles

    2014-10-01

    Detection of MUM1+ cells in follicular lymphoma (FL) tissues was previously found to be associated with poor prognosis in a single report, whereas the usefulness of Ki-67 immunostaining remains debated. Our goal was to establish whether these markers have predictive value for patients with FL. We analyzed MUM1 and Ki-67 expression using immunohistochemistry in biopsy samples from 434 patients from the PRIMA randomized trial. The MUM1 prognostic value was then validated in a cohort of 138 patients from the FL2000 randomized trial, using the optimal cutoff value obtained from the PRIMA cohort. The surface of positive staining was quantified using computerized image analysis. In the PRIMA cohort, both high levels of MUM1 positivity (cutoff value of 0.80%) and high levels of Ki-67 positivity (cutoff value of 10.25%) were significantly associated with a shorter progression-free survival (PFS) (P = .004 and P = .007 for MUM1 and Ki-67, respectively). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model, only MUM1 retained a statistical significance (hazards ratio 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.37; P = .038) after adjustment for the maintenance arm of treatment and the follicular lymphoma international prognostic index score. In the FL2000 cohort, high levels of MUM1 positivity were significantly associated to a shorter PFS (P = .004) and to a trend toward a shorter overall survival (P = .043). This remained significant using a multivariate Cox regression model after adjustment for the follicular lymphoma international prognostic index and the treatment arm for PFS (P = .016). These results show that MUM1 is a strong and robust predictive immunohistochemical marker in patients with FL. PMID:25149549

  8. Accelerated Aging with Electrical Overstress and Prognostics for Power MOSFETs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Sankalita; Celaya, Jose Ramon; Vashchenko, Vladislav; Mahiuddin, Shompa; Goebel, Kai F.

    2011-01-01

    Power electronics play an increasingly important role in energy applications as part of their power converter circuits. Understanding the behavior of these devices, especially their failure modes as they age with nominal usage or sudden fault development is critical in ensuring efficiency. In this paper, a prognostics based health management of power MOSFETs undergoing accelerated aging through electrical overstress at the gate area is presented. Details of the accelerated aging methodology, modeling of the degradation process of the device and prognostics algorithm for prediction of the future state of health of the device are presented. Experiments with multiple devices demonstrate the performance of the model and the prognostics algorithm as well as the scope of application. Index Terms Power MOSFET, accelerated aging, prognostics

  9. Lifecycle Prognostics Architecture for Selected High-Cost Active Components

    SciTech Connect

    N. Lybeck; B. Pham; M. Tawfik; J. B. Coble; R. M. Meyer; P. Ramuhalli; L. J. Bond

    2011-08-01

    There are an extensive body of knowledge and some commercial products available for calculating prognostics, remaining useful life, and damage index parameters. The application of these technologies within the nuclear power community is still in its infancy. Online monitoring and condition-based maintenance is seeing increasing acceptance and deployment, and these activities provide the technological bases for expanding to add predictive/prognostics capabilities. In looking to deploy prognostics there are three key aspects of systems that are presented and discussed: (1) component/system/structure selection, (2) prognostic algorithms, and (3) prognostics architectures. Criteria are presented for component selection: feasibility, failure probability, consequences of failure, and benefits of the prognostics and health management (PHM) system. The basis and methods commonly used for prognostics algorithms are reviewed and summarized. Criteria for evaluating PHM architectures are presented: open, modular architecture; platform independence; graphical user interface for system development and/or results viewing; web enabled tools; scalability; and standards compatibility. Thirteen software products were identified and discussed in the context of being potentially useful for deployment in a PHM program applied to systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP). These products were evaluated by using information available from company websites, product brochures, fact sheets, scholarly publications, and direct communication with vendors. The thirteen products were classified into four groups of software: (1) research tools, (2) PHM system development tools, (3) deployable architectures, and (4) peripheral tools. Eight software tools fell into the deployable architectures category. Of those eight, only two employ all six modules of a full PHM system. Five systems did not offer prognostic estimates, and one system employed the full health monitoring suite but lacked operations and

  10. Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Generator Step-Up Transformers

    SciTech Connect

    Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J. Lybeck; Binh T. Pham

    2014-09-01

    In 2014, the online monitoring (OLM) of active components project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) focused on diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for generator step-up transformers. INL worked with subject matter experts from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to augment and revise the GSU fault signatures previously implemented in the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. Two prognostic models were identified and implemented for GSUs in the FW-PHM Suite software. INL and EPRI demonstrated the use of prognostic capabilities for GSUs. The complete set of fault signatures developed for GSUs in the Asset Fault Signature Database of the FW-PHM Suite for GSUs is presented in this report. Two prognostic models are described for paper insulation: the Chendong model for degree of polymerization, and an IEEE model that uses a loading profile to calculates life consumption based on hot spot winding temperatures. Both models are life consumption models, which are examples of type II prognostic models. Use of the models in the FW-PHM Suite was successfully demonstrated at the 2014 August Utility Working Group Meeting, Idaho Falls, Idaho, to representatives from different utilities, EPRI, and the Halden Research Project.

  11. Meningioma Genomics: Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Therapeutic Applications

    PubMed Central

    Bi, Wenya Linda; Zhang, Michael; Wu, Winona W.; Mei, Yu; Dunn, Ian F.

    2016-01-01

    There has been a recent revolution in our understanding of the genetic factors that drive meningioma, punctuating an equilibrium that has existed since Cushing’s germinal studies nearly a century ago. A growing appreciation that meningiomas share similar biologic features with other malignancies has allowed extrapolation of management strategies and lessons from intra-axial central nervous system neoplasms and systemic cancers to meningiomas. These features include a natural proclivity for invasion, frequent intratumoral heterogeneity, and correlation between biologic profile and clinical behavior. Next-generation sequencing has characterized recurrent somatic mutations in NF2, TRAF7, KLF4, AKT1, SMO, and PIK3CA, which are collectively present in ~80% of sporadic meningiomas. Genomic features of meningioma further associate with tumor location, histologic subtype, and possibly clinical behavior. Such genomic decryption, along with advances in targeted pharmacotherapy, provides a maturing integrated view of meningiomas. We review recent advances in meningioma genomics and probe their potential applications in diagnostic, therapeutic, and prognostic frontiers. PMID:27458586

  12. Prognostic biomarkers in acute coronary syndrome.

    PubMed

    Salvagno, Gian Luca; Pavan, Chiara

    2016-07-01

    The acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a leading cause of death around the globe. Beside a still high mortality rate, additional complications of ACS include arrhythmias, left ventricular mural thrombus, cardiac fibrosis, heart failure (HF), cardiogenic shock, mitral valve dysfunction, aneurysms, up to cardiac rupture. Despite many prognostic tools have been developed over the past decades, efforts are still ongoing to identify reliable and predictive biomarkers, which may help predict the prognosis of these patients and especially the risk of HF. Recent evidence suggests that the value of a discrete number of biomarkers of myocardial fibrosis, namely the soluble form of suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) and galectin-3 (GAL-3), may be predictive of HF and death in patients with ACS. Interestingly, the already promising predictive value of these biomarkers when measured alone was shown to be consistently magnified when combined with other and well-established cardiac biomarkers such natriuretic peptides and cardiac troponins. This article is hence aimed to review the current knowledge about cardiac biomarkers of fibrosis and adverse remodeling. PMID:27500159

  13. Prognostic biomarkers in acute coronary syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Pavan, Chiara

    2016-01-01

    The acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a leading cause of death around the globe. Beside a still high mortality rate, additional complications of ACS include arrhythmias, left ventricular mural thrombus, cardiac fibrosis, heart failure (HF), cardiogenic shock, mitral valve dysfunction, aneurysms, up to cardiac rupture. Despite many prognostic tools have been developed over the past decades, efforts are still ongoing to identify reliable and predictive biomarkers, which may help predict the prognosis of these patients and especially the risk of HF. Recent evidence suggests that the value of a discrete number of biomarkers of myocardial fibrosis, namely the soluble form of suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) and galectin-3 (GAL-3), may be predictive of HF and death in patients with ACS. Interestingly, the already promising predictive value of these biomarkers when measured alone was shown to be consistently magnified when combined with other and well-established cardiac biomarkers such natriuretic peptides and cardiac troponins. This article is hence aimed to review the current knowledge about cardiac biomarkers of fibrosis and adverse remodeling. PMID:27500159

  14. Damage Propagation Modeling for Aircraft Engine Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai; Simon, Don; Eklund, Neil

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes how damage propagation can be modeled within the modules of aircraft gas turbine engines. To that end, response surfaces of all sensors are generated via a thermo-dynamical simulation model for the engine as a function of variations of flow and efficiency of the modules of interest. An exponential rate of change for flow and efficiency loss was imposed for each data set, starting at a randomly chosen initial deterioration set point. The rate of change of the flow and efficiency denotes an otherwise unspecified fault with increasingly worsening effect. The rates of change of the faults were constrained to an upper threshold but were otherwise chosen randomly. Damage propagation was allowed to continue until a failure criterion was reached. A health index was defined as the minimum of several superimposed operational margins at any given time instant and the failure criterion is reached when health index reaches zero. Output of the model was the time series (cycles) of sensed measurements typically available from aircraft gas turbine engines. The data generated were used as challenge data for the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) data competition at PHM 08.

  15. Prognostication--the lost skill of medicine.

    PubMed

    Kellett, John

    2008-05-01

    Making a prognosis is one of the primary functions of the medical profession. At the end of the nineteenth century prognostication took up approximately ten percent of medical textbooks, by 1970 this had fallen to nearly zero. Given medical technology's awesome ability to prolong the process and suffering of dying today's patients need to know their prognosis in order to make choices about their treatment options. Whilst precise predictions of the future are obviously not possible, relatively simple mathematical modelling techniques can make reasonable estimates of likely outcomes for individual patients. The life expectancy of a patient of any age with any illness can be estimated provided the disease-specific mortality of the illness is known. Decision analysis or logistic regression models can then be used to determine the risks and benefits of various treatment options. A patient's prognosis does not just depend on their age and primary diagnosis, but also on the severity of their illness, their functional capacity both prior to and during the illness and the number of co-morbidities also suffered from. Several predictive instruments have been developed to help simplify the prediction of the outcome of individual patients. There are conflicting reports on how these models compare with doctors' intuition--whatever their strengths and weaknesses it is unlikely that they worsen clinical judgement. Therefore, all doctors should become familiar with them and use them appropriately. PMID:18395158

  16. Short-term prognostic factors in lumbar disc surgery: the low back prognostic score is of predictive value.

    PubMed

    Woertgen, C; Gliese, M; Rothoerl, R D; Holzschuh, M; Schlaier, J; Ullrich, O W; Brawanski, A

    1998-01-01

    In order to determine prognostic factors of lumbar disc surgery, we examined 107 patients who were conventionally operated on in a prospective, consecutive study. We analysed general data, the case history, the neurological examination at admission and all data from imaging examinations and therapy. In addition, all patients received a questionnaire based on the Low Back Outcome Score [9, 10]. The patients were re-examined after 2-8 months (103 days mean). According to their ratings on a pain grading scale, the patients were divided into a group with favorable and another with unfavorable results. These groups were analysed in relation to the patients' initial condition. At follow up, 88% of the patients had either completely recovered or their complaints had been relieved. According to the Low Back Outcome Score (LBOS), 64.5% went well. Used to evaluate the initial condition of the patients on admission the LBOS was able to predict favorable outcome in 68% and unfavorable outcome in 50%. To improve the prognostic value, we combined significant questions of the LBOS with the pain grading scale and significant prognostic factors to form a new prognostic score (Low Back Prognostic Score). With this new score we were able to predict a favorable outcome in 84% of our patients, and an unfavorable outcome in 71%. The Low Back Prognostic score seems to provide a sensitive method for predicting a favorable or unfavorable outcome for patients scheduled to undergo lumbar disc surgery. PMID:9577926

  17. A five-miRNA signature with prognostic and predictive value for MGMT promoter-methylated glioblastoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Wen; Ren, Xiufang; Cai, Jinquan; Zhang, Chuanbao; Li, Mingyang; Wang, Kuanyu; Liu, Yang; Han, Sheng; Wu, Anhua

    2015-01-01

    Although O(6)-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is an important marker for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), there is considerable variability in the clinical outcome of patients with similar methylation profiles. The present study aimed to refine the prognostic and predictive value of MGMT promoter status in GBM by identifying a micro (mi)RNA risk signature. Data from The Cancer Genome Atlas was used for this study, with MGMT promoter-methylated samples randomly divided into training and internal validation sets. Data from The Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas was used for independent validation. A five miRNA-based risk signature was established for MGMT promoter-methylated GBM to distinguish cases as high- or low-risk with distinct prognoses, which was confirmed using internal and external validation sets. Importantly, the prognostic value of the signature was significant in different cohorts stratified by clinicopathologic factors and alkylating chemotherapy, and a multivariate Cox analysis found it to be an independent prognostic marker along with age and chemotherapy. Based on these three factors, we developed a quantitative model with greater accuracy for predicting the 1-year survival of patients with MGMT promoter-methylated GBM. These results indicate that the five-miRNA signature is an independent risk predictor for GBM with MGMT promoter methylation and can be used to identify patients at high risk of unfavorable outcome and resistant to alkylating chemotherapy, underscoring its potential for personalized GBM management. PMID:26320189

  18. A five-miRNA signature with prognostic and predictive value for MGMT promoter-methylated glioblastoma patients.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Wen; Ren, Xiufang; Cai, Jinquan; Zhang, Chuanbao; Li, Mingyang; Wang, Kuanyu; Liu, Yang; Han, Sheng; Wu, Anhua

    2015-10-01

    Although O(6)-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is an important marker for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), there is considerable variability in the clinical outcome of patients with similar methylation profiles. The present study aimed to refine the prognostic and predictive value of MGMT promoter status in GBM by identifying a micro (mi)RNA risk signature. Data from The Cancer Genome Atlas was used for this study, with MGMT promoter-methylated samples randomly divided into training and internal validation sets. Data from The Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas was used for independent validation. A five miRNA-based risk signature was established for MGMT promoter-methylated GBM to distinguish cases as high- or low-risk with distinct prognoses, which was confirmed using internal and external validation sets. Importantly, the prognostic value of the signature was significant in different cohorts stratified by clinicopathologic factors and alkylating chemotherapy, and a multivariate Cox analysis found it to be an independent prognostic marker along with age and chemotherapy. Based on these three factors, we developed a quantitative model with greater accuracy for predicting the 1-year survival of patients with MGMT promoter-methylated GBM. These results indicate that the five-miRNA signature is an independent risk predictor for GBM with MGMT promoter methylation and can be used to identify patients at high risk of unfavorable outcome and resistant to alkylating chemotherapy, underscoring its potential for personalized GBM management. PMID:26320189

  19. Preoperative radiotherapy for rectal adenocarcinoma: Which are strong prognostic factors?

    SciTech Connect

    Chapet, Olivier . E-mail: ochapet@med.umich.edu; Romestaing, Pascale; Mornex, Francoise; Souquet, Jean-Christophe; Favrel, Veronique; Ardiet, Jean-Michel; D'Hombres, Anne; Gerard, Jean-Pierre

    2005-04-01

    Purpose: This retrospective 12-year study evaluated the prognostic value of initial and postoperative staging of rectal tumors. Methods and Materials: Between 1985 and 1996, 297 patients were treated with preoperative radiotherapy (39 Gy in 13 fractions) and surgery for Stage T2-T4N0-N1M0 rectal adenocarcinoma. Pretreatment staging included a clinical examination and endorectal ultrasonography (EUS) since 1988. Clinical staging was performed by digital rectal examination and rigid proctoscopy. EUS was performed in 236 patients. Postoperative staging was performed by examination of the pathologic specimen. Results: The median follow-up was 49 months. The overall 5-year survival rate was 67%, with a local failure rate of 9%. The rate of sphincter preservation was 65%. The clinical examination findings were strong prognostic factor for both cT stage (p < 0.001) and cN stage (p < 0.006) but had poor specificity for cN stage (only 25 lymph nodes detected). In both univariate and multivariate analyses, EUS had a statistically significant prognostic value for uT (p < 0.014) but not for uN (p < 0.47) stage. In contrast, pT and pN stages were strong prognostic factors (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Pretreatment staging, including clinical examination and EUS, seemed accurate enough to present a high prognostic value for the T stage. EUS was insufficient to stage lymph node involvement. Owing to its lack of specificity, uN stage was not a reliable prognostic factor. An improvement in N staging is necessary and essential. Despite downstaging, postoperative staging remained a very strong prognostic factor for both T and N stages.

  20. MAGE-A3 expression is an adverse prognostic factor in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Olarte, Irma; Martinez, Adolfo; Ramos-Peñafiel, Christian; Castellanos-Sinco, Humberto; Zamora, Jorge; Collazo-Jaloma, Juan; Gutiérrez, Mario; Gutiérrez-Kobeh, Laila; Chavez-Olmos, Pedro; Manzanilla, Hugo; Garrido-Guerrero, Efraín; Ordoñez-Razo, Rosa M; Miranda, Enrique I

    2011-11-01

    This study evaluates the prognostic value of MAGE-A3 expression in 28 diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients. A significant association was observed between MAGE-A3 expressions, assessed by quantitative real-time RT-polymerase chain reaction (PCR), with advanced stages of disease (P < 0.05). Elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels and International Prognostic Index (IPI) score were significantly higher in MAGE-A3-positive patients (P = 0.025 and P = 0.004, respectively). Expression of MAGE-A3 was associated with poor response to treatment and a significantly shorter overall survival (P < 0.001). Our data address new information in the association of MAGE-A3 expression and poor prognosis in DLBCL patients. PMID:22183072

  1. Prognostic value of legumain in uveal melanoma

    PubMed Central

    WU, TONG; SUN, LEI; WU, YING; XIANG, RONG; LI, YUWEI; RONG, WEINING; SUN, FENGYUAN; WANG, NINGLI

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to assess the expression of legumain in uveal melanoma (UM) cell lines and primary UM specimens, and to determine the possible association between legumain expression and clinical as well as pathological characteristics to reveal its impact on the prognosis of patients with UM. Records of primary UM cases treated at Beijing Tongren Hospital and Tianjin Eye Hospital between 1996 and 2005 were retrieved for analysis and a total of 82 patients with uveal melanoma were included in the study. The expression of legumain in the formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded surgical specimens of these 82 patients was determined using immunohistochemical analysis. In addition, the expression of legumain was examined in two uveal melanoma cell lines using polymerase chain reaction and western blot analyses. The association of legumain expression with clinical/pathological characteristics was analyzed using the χ2 and Fisher's exact test. In addition, the impact of legumain on the prognosis of patients with uveal melanoma was examined. Upregulation of legumain was more predominant in the highly invasive uveal melanoma cell line MUM-2B compared with that in the MUM-2C with low invasiveness. Of 82 primary uveal melanoma tissues, 35 exhibited high expression of legumain, while the other 47 specimens exhibited low or negative expression of legumain. High legumain expression was primarily associated with local invasion of UM. Overall survival analysis revealed that the patients with high legumain expression exhibited poorer survival than patients with low/negative legumain expression. These findings suggested that upregulation of legumain is associated with malignant behavior of UM and that legumain may be used as an negative prognostic factor as well as a therapeutic target. PMID:26846877

  2. Treatment results and prognostic factors of pediatric neuroblastoma: a retrospective study

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background We conducted a retrospective analysis to investigate treatment results and prognostic factors of pediatric neuroblastoma patients. Methods This retrospective study was carried out analyzing the medical records of patients with the pathological diagnosis of neuroblastoma seen at South Egypt Cancer Institute, Assiut University during the period from January 2001 and January 2010. After induction chemotherapy, response according to international neuoblastoma response criteria was assessed. Radiotherapy to patients with residual primary tumor was applied. Overall and event free survival (OAS and EFS) rates were estimated using Graphed prism program. The Log-rank test was used to examine differences in OAS and EFS rates. Cox-regression multivariate analysis was done to determine the independent prognostic factors affecting survival rates. Results Fifty three cases were analyzed. The median follow-up duration was 32 months and ranged from 2 to 84 months. The 3-year OAS and EFS rates were 39.4% and 29.3% respectively. Poor prognostic factors included age >1 year of age, N-MYC amplification, and high risk group. The majority of patients (68%) presented in high risk group, where treatment outcome was poor, as only 21% of patients survived for 3 year. Conclusion Multivariate analysis confirmed only the association between survival and risk group. However, in univariate analysis, local radiation therapy resulted in significant survival improvement. Therefore, radiotherapy should be given to patients with residual tumor evident after induction chemotherapy and surgery. Future attempts to improve OAS in high risk group patients with aggressive chemotherapy and bone marrow transplantation should be considered. PMID:21182799

  3. Prognostic factors in children with extracranial germ cell tumors treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jinsup; Lee, Na Hee; Yoo, Keon Hee; Sung, Ki Woong; Koo, Hong Hoe; Seo, Jeong-Meen; Lee, Suk-Koo

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the outcomes and prognostic factors in children with extracranial germ cell tumors (GCTs) treated at a single institution. Methods Sixty-six children diagnosed with extracranial GCTs between 1996 and 2012 were included in the study. Primary treatment was surgical excision, followed by six cycles of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The survival rates were compared according to the International Germ Cell Cancer Cooperative Group classification used for GCTs in adults to validate the classification guidelines for GCTs in children. Results The median patient age was 4.4 years. In 34 patients (51.5%), the primary tumor site was the gonad. Extragonadal GCTs were detected in 32 patients. The 5-year overall survival and event-free survival (EFS) were 92.0%±3.5% and 90.4%±3.7%, respectively. In univariate analysis, tumor histology, metastasis, and elevated alpha-fetoprotein were not prognostic factors in children with extracranial GCTs. However, EFS was poorer in patients with mediastinal disease (n=12, 66.7%±13.6 %) than in those with nonmediastinal disease (n=54, 96.0%±2.8%) (P=0.001). The 5-year EFS was lower in patients older than 10 years, (n=21, 80.0%±8.9%) compared with those younger than 10 years (n=45, 95.2%±3.3%) (P=0.04). Multivariate analysis identified the mediastinal tumor site as the only independent prognostic factor. Conclusion The prognosis of children with extracranial GCTs was favorable. However, nongerminomatous mediastinal tumors were associated with poor survival in children. Further research is needed to improve the prognosis of children with malignant mediastinal GCTs. PMID:26576183

  4. Serum beta-2 microglobulin as a prognostic biomarker in patients with mantle cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Yoo, Changhoon; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Kim, Shin; Huh, Jooryung; Park, Chan-Sik; Park, Chan-Jeong; Lee, Sang-Wook; Suh, Cheolwon

    2016-03-01

    Although serum beta-2 microglobulin (B2M) has been suggested as a prognostic factor for mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), additional data are necessary to confirm its role. Between November 2005 and July 2014, a total of 52 patients with MCL were identified from the database of Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Korea. Pretreatment serum B2M information was available in 50 patients (96%). Overall survival (OS) was compared according to the serum B2M level with a cut-off value of 2.5 mg/L. The median MCL international prognostic index (MIPI) score was 5.84 (range 4.72-7.80), and the median biologic MIPI (MIPI-b) score was 6.27 (4.93-8.47). Pretreatment serum B2M was elevated in 30 patients (60%) and was significantly related to advanced stage (p = 0.02) and high MIPI (p = 0.03) and MIPI-b (p = 0.03) scores. With median follow-up duration of 29.8 months (range 0.8-87.0 months), the median OS was 56.2 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 36.6-75.9 months] in all patients, and serum B2M was significantly associated with OS (p = 0.001). In multivariate analyses adjusted for MIPI or MIPI-b scores and rituximab, elevated serum B2M was significantly associated with poor OS (when adjusting MIPI, hazard ratio = 26.4, 95% CI 2.9-241.3, p = 0.004; when adjusting MIPI-b, hazard ratio = 20.1, 95% CI 2.4-170.1, p = 0.006). Thus, pretreatment serum B2M may be an independent and significant prognostic factor in patients with MCL. PMID:25689467

  5. Prognostic and Clinicopathological Value of Survivin in Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ya; Wang, Jianhong; Sui, Xiaohui; Li, Ying; Lu, Kang; Fang, Xiaosheng; Jiang, Yujie; Wang, Xin

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Up to date, survivin, a well-known inhibitor of apoptosis, has attracted considerable attention as a potential biomarker and therapeutic target in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Nevertheless, there still remains no consensus on heterogeneous results. Herein, a meta-analysis was performed to clarify a convincing significance of survivin status on prognosis and clinicopathology of DLBCL patients. Eligible studies were identified by searching Medline, Embase, Scopus, CNKI, and Wanfang databases (last updated on November 30, 2014). Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Heterogeneity and sensitivity were also analyzed. Moreover, Begg, Egger test, and funnel plots were applied to evaluate the publication bias. We finally included 17 eligible studies with the total number of 1352 patients in the meta-analysis. The pooled results showed that positive survivin expression in DLBCL was associated with inferior overall survival (OS) (HR: 1.880, 95% CI: 1.550–2.270) in patients. Moreover, a significant association was revealed between survivin expression and advanced clinical stage (III + IV) (OR: 0.611, 95% CI: 0.452–0.827), higher International Prognosis Index (IPI) score (Score 3–5) (OR: 0.559; 95% CI: 0.410–0.761), elevated serum lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR: 0.607, 95% CI: 0.444–0.831), presence of bone marrow involvement (OR: 2.127, 95% CI: 1.154–3.921) together with reduced complete remission (CR) rate (OR: 0.478, 95% CI: 0.345–0.662). The results suggest that survivin could be a useful prognostic biomarker, and a promising target for DLBCL therapeutic intervention. Considering limited HR data adjusted for standard prognostic variables could be retrieved, future high-quality studies will be needed in evaluating the independent prognostic value of survivin expression in DLBCL. PMID:26356696

  6. Prognostic significance of modified Glasgow Prognostic Score in patients with non-metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Cho, Dae Sung; Kim, Sun Il; Choo, Seol Ho; Jang, Seok Heun; Ahn, Hyun Soo; Kim, Se Joong

    2016-06-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) as a prognostic factor in patients with non-metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Materials and methods Between June 1994 and July 2012, 469 patients with RCC underwent radical or partial nephrectomy at two hospitals. Among these patients, 65 with non-clear cell type histology and 16 with lymph-node or distant metastasis were excluded. The medical records of the remaining 388 patients were retrospectively reviewed. The mGPS was calculated using a selective combination of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin as previously described. The prognostic significance of various clinicopathological variables including mGPS was analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results Of the total 388 patients, 40 patients (10.3%) developed local recurrence or distant metastasis and 18 patients (4.6%) died of disease during the follow-up period. The univariate analysis identified CRP, mGPS, thrombocytosis, T stage, Fuhrman's nuclear grade and lymphovascular invasion as significant prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The multivariate analysis indicated that mGPS (p < 0.001), T stage (p = 0.024) and lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.046) were independent prognostic factors for RFS, whereas mGPS (p = 0.001) was the only independent prognostic factor for CSS. Conclusions The mGPS is an independent prognostic factor for RFS and CSS in patients with non-metastatic clear cell RCC treated with radical or partial nephrectomy. These findings suggest that mGPS should be used for predicting recurrence or survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy for non-metastatic clear cell RCC. PMID:26878156

  7. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Goebel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowledge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenomena in a physics-based model that is derived from first principles. Uncertainty cannot be avoided in prediction, therefore, algorithms are employed that help in managing these uncertainties. The particle filtering algorithm has become a popular choice for model-based prognostics due to its wide applicability, ease of implementation, and support for uncertainty management. We develop a general model-based prognostics methodology within a robust probabilistic framework using particle filters. As a case study, we consider a pneumatic valve from the Space Shuttle cryogenic refueling system. We develop a detailed physics-based model of the pneumatic valve, and perform comprehensive simulation experiments to illustrate our prognostics approach and evaluate its effectiveness and robustness. The approach is demonstrated using historical pneumatic valve data from the refueling system.

  8. Rotating machinery prognostics: State of the art, challenges and opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heng, Aiwina; Zhang, Sheng; Tan, Andy C. C.; Mathew, Joseph

    2009-04-01

    Machinery prognosis is the forecast of the remaining operational life, future condition, or probability of reliable operation of an equipment based on the acquired condition monitoring data. This approach to modern maintenance practice promises to reduce downtime, spares inventory, maintenance costs, and safety hazards. Given the significance of prognostics capabilities and the maturity of condition monitoring technology, there have been an increasing number of publications on rotating machinery prognostics in the past few years. These publications covered a wide spectrum of prognostics techniques. This review article first synthesises and places these individual pieces of information in context, while identifying their merits and weaknesses. It then discusses the identified challenges, and in doing so, alerts researchers to opportunities for conducting advanced research in the field. Current methods for predicting rotating machinery failures are summarised and classified as conventional reliability models, condition-based prognostics models and models integrating reliability and prognostics. Areas in need of development or improvement include the integration of condition monitoring and reliability, utilisation of incomplete trending data, consideration of effects from maintenance actions and variable operating conditions, derivation of the non-linear relationship between measured data and actual asset health, consideration of failure interactions, practicability of requirements and assumptions, as well as development of performance evaluation frameworks.

  9. An Algorithm for Creating Prognostic Systems for Cancer.

    PubMed

    Chen, Dechang; Wang, Huan; Sheng, Li; Hueman, Matthew T; Henson, Donald E; Schwartz, Arnold M; Patel, Jigar A

    2016-07-01

    The TNM staging system is universally used for classification of cancer. This system is limited since it uses only three factors (tumor size, extent of spread to lymph nodes, and status of distant metastasis) to generate stage groups. To provide a more accurate description of cancer and thus better patient care, additional factors or variables should be used to classify cancer. In this paper we propose a hierarchical clustering algorithm to develop prognostic systems that classify cancer according to multiple prognostic factors. This algorithm has many potential applications in augmenting the data currently obtained in a staging system by allowing more prognostic factors to be incorporated. The algorithm clusters combinations of prognostic factors that are formed using categories of factors. The dissimilarity between two combinations is determined by the area between two corresponding survival curves. Groups from cutting the dendrogram and survival curves of the individual groups define our prognostic systems that classify patients using survival outcomes. A demonstration of the proposed algorithm is given for patients with breast cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. PMID:27189622

  10. Severe acute pancreatitis: Pathogenetic aspects and prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Mofleh, Ibrahim A Al

    2008-01-01

    Approximately 20% of patients with acute pancreatitis develop a severe disease associated with complications and high risk of mortality. The purpose of this study is to review pathogenesis and prognostic factors of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). An extensive medline search was undertaken with focusing on pathogenesis, complications and prognostic evaluation of SAP. Cytokines and other inflammatory markers play a major role in the pathogenesis and course of SAP and can be used as prognostic markers in its early phase. Other markers such as simple prognostic scores have been found to be as effective as multifactorial scoring systems (MFSS) at 48 h with the advantage of simplicity, efficacy, low cost, accuracy and early prediction of SAP. Recently, several laboratory markers including hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and serum amyloid A (SAA) have been used as early predictors of severity within the first 24 h. The last few years have witnessed a tremendous progress in understanding the pathogenesis and predicting the outcome of SAP. In this review we classified the prognostic markers into predictors of severity, pancreatic necrosis (PN), infected PN (IPN) and mortality. PMID:18205255

  11. External validation of a Cox prognostic model: principles and methods

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background A prognostic model should not enter clinical practice unless it has been demonstrated that it performs a useful role. External validation denotes evaluation of model performance in a sample independent of that used to develop the model. Unlike for logistic regression models, external validation of Cox models is sparsely treated in the literature. Successful validation of a model means achieving satisfactory discrimination and calibration (prediction accuracy) in the validation sample. Validating Cox models is not straightforward because event probabilities are estimated relative to an unspecified baseline function. Methods We describe statistical approaches to external validation of a published Cox model according to the level of published information, specifically (1) the prognostic index only, (2) the prognostic index together with Kaplan-Meier curves for risk groups, and (3) the first two plus the baseline survival curve (the estimated survival function at the mean prognostic index across the sample). The most challenging task, requiring level 3 information, is assessing calibration, for which we suggest a method of approximating the baseline survival function. Results We apply the methods to two comparable datasets in primary breast cancer, treating one as derivation and the other as validation sample. Results are presented for discrimination and calibration. We demonstrate plots of survival probabilities that can assist model evaluation. Conclusions Our validation methods are applicable to a wide range of prognostic studies and provide researchers with a toolkit for external validation of a published Cox model. PMID:23496923

  12. Prognostication of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancer: Predicting the Unpredictable?

    PubMed Central

    Hui, David

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognosis is a key driver of clinical decision-making. However, available prognostication tools have limited accuracy and variable levels of validation. Methods Principles of survival prediction and literature on clinician prediction of survival, prognostic factors, and prognostic models were reviewed, with a focus on patients with advanced cancer and a survival rate of a few months or less. Results The 4 principles of survival prediction are (a) prognostication is a process instead of an event, (b) prognostic factors may evolve over the course of the disease, (c) prognostic accuracy for a given prognostic factor/tool varies by the definition of accuracy, the patient population, and the time frame of prediction, and (d) the exact timing of death cannot be predicted with certainty. Clinician prediction of survival rate is the most commonly used approach to formulate prognosis. However, clinicians often overestimate survival rates with the temporal question. Other clinician prediction of survival approaches, such as surprise and probabilistic questions, have higher rates of accuracy. Established prognostic factors in the advanced cancer setting include decreased performance status, delirium, dysphagia, cancer anorexia–cachexia, dyspnea, inflammation, and malnutrition. Novel prognostic factors, such as phase angle, may improve rates of accuracy. Many prognostic models are available, including the Palliative Prognostic Score, the Palliative Prognostic Index, and the Glasgow Prognostic Score. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in survival prediction, existing prognostic tools can facilitate clinical decision-making by providing approximated time frames (months, weeks, or days). Future research should focus on clarifying and comparing the rates of accuracy for existing prognostic tools, identifying and validating novel prognostic factors, and linking prognostication to decision-making. PMID:26678976

  13. Prognostic Significance of Single Progesterone Receptor Positivity

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Ying; Ding, Xiaoyan; Xu, Binghe; Ma, Fei; Yuan, Peng; Wang, Jiayu; Zhang, Pin; Li, Qing; Luo, Yang

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Single progesterone receptor positive (PgR+), especially in form of ER−/PgR+/HER2−, is a nonnegligible phenomenon. Little is known about the characteristics and the role of single PgR positive in this phenotype. Therefore, we explore the significance of single PgR positivity by comparing ER−/PgR+/HER2− breast cancers with triple negative breast cancers (TNBCs). Three thousand nine hundred sixty-six cases of primary invasive breast carcinoma operated consecutively from January 2005 to May 2008 in Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences were examined. Two hundred forty (6%) cases were identified as ER−/PgR+/HER2− breast cancers and 348 (8.8%) cases as TNBCs. Clinicopathological characteristics and survivals were analyzed respectively and then compared between 2 subtypes. Compared with patients with TNBCs, ER−/PgR+/HER2− tumor tended to have lower tumor grade (Grade 3: 45.7% vs. 37.5%, P = 0.051) and smaller tumor size (P = 0.036). However, no differences were found between ER−/PgR+/HER2− and TNBC patients in relapse-free survival (RFS) and OS. The 5-year RFS rates were 80.7% and 77.4%, respectively (P = 0.330) and the 5-year OS rates were 88.0% and 85.2%, respectively (P = 0.290). ER−/PgR+/HER2− patients receiving adjuvant endocrine treatment had better RFS (P = 0.016) and overall survival (OS) (P < 0.0001) than patients receiving no endocrine therapy. This exclusive analysis of patients with ER−/PgR+/HER2− breast cancers showed that this subtype exhibited an aggressive behavior as TNBC, suggesting that it should also be regarded as biologically distinctive group and single PgR positive itself is not a good prognostic factor. However, adjuvant endocrine therapy could still benefit this group of patients. Further investigations should be done to elucidate the underlying mechanism. PMID:26579819

  14. Real-Time Prognostics of a Rotary Valve Actuator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Valves are used in many domains and often have system-critical functions. As such, it is important to monitor the health of valves and their actuators and predict remaining useful life. In this work, we develop a model-based prognostics approach for a rotary valve actuator. Due to limited observability of the component with multiple failure modes, a lumped damage approach is proposed for estimation and prediction of damage progression. In order to support the goal of real-time prognostics, an approach to prediction is developed that does not require online simulation to compute remaining life, rather, a function mapping the damage state to remaining useful life is found offline so that predictions can be made quickly online with a single function evaluation. Simulation results demonstrate the overall methodology, validating the lumped damage approach and demonstrating real-time prognostics.

  15. Novel Prognostic and Therapeutic Mutations in Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

    PubMed

    Medinger, Michael; Lengerke, Claudia; Passweg, Jakob

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a biologically complex and molecularly and clinically heterogeneous disease, and its incidence increases with age. Cytogenetics and mutation testing remain important prognostic tools for treatment after induction therapy. The post-induction treatment is dependent on risk stratification. Despite rapid advances in determination of gene mutations involved in the pathophysiology and biology of AML, and the rapid development of new drugs, treatment improvements changed slowly over the past 30 years, with the majority of patients eventually experiencing relapse and dying of their disease. Allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation remains the best chance of cure for patients with intermediate- or high-risk disease. This review gives an overview about advances in prognostic markers and novel treatment options for AML, focusing on new prognostic and probably therapeutic mutations, and novel drug therapies such as tyrosine kinase inhibitors. PMID:27566651

  16. Course and Prognostic Factors for Neck Pain in Workers

    PubMed Central

    Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Côté, Pierre; van der Velde, Gabrielle; Holm, Lena W.; Carragee, Eugene J.; Hurwitz, Eric L.; Peloso, Paul M.; Cassidy, J. David; Guzman, Jaime; Nordin, Margareta; Haldeman, Scott

    2008-01-01

    Study Design Best-evidence synthesis. Objective To perform a best evidence synthesis on the course and prognostic factors for neck pain and its associated disorders in workers. Summary of Background Data Knowledge of the course of neck pain in workers guides expectations for recovery. Identifying prognostic factors assists in planning effective workplace policies, formulating interventions and promoting lifestyle changes to decrease the frequency and burden of neck pain in the workplace. Methods The Bone and Joint Decade 2000−2010 Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) conducted a critical review of the literature published between 1980 and 2006 to assemble the best evidence on neck pain and its associated disorders. Studies meeting criteria for scientific validity were included in a best evidence synthesis. Results We found 226 articles related to course and prognostic factors in neck pain and its associated disorders. After a critical review, 70 (31%) were accepted on scientific merit; 14 of these studies related to course and prognostic factors in working populations. Between 60% and 80% of workers with neck pain reported neck pain1 year later. Few workplace or physical job demands were identified as being linked to recovery from neck pain. However, workers with little influence on their own work situation had a slightly poorer prognosis, and white-collar workers had a better prognosis than blue-collar workers. General exercise was associated with better prognosis; prior neck pain and prior sick leave were associated with poorer prognosis. Conclusion The Neck Pain Task Force presents a report of current best evidence on course and prognosis for neck pain. Few modifiable prognostic factors were identified; however, having some influence over one's own job and being physically active seem to hold promise as prognostic factors.

  17. Multigene prognostic tests in breast cancer: past, present, future.

    PubMed

    Győrffy, Balázs; Hatzis, Christos; Sanft, Tara; Hofstatter, Erin; Aktas, Bilge; Pusztai, Lajos

    2015-01-01

    There is growing consensus that multigene prognostic tests provide useful complementary information to tumor size and grade in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. The tests primarily rely on quantification of ER and proliferation-related genes and combine these into multivariate prediction models. Since ER-negative cancers tend to have higher proliferation rates, the prognostic value of current multigene tests in these cancers is limited. First-generation prognostic signatures (Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, Genomic Grade Index) are substantially more accurate to predict recurrence within the first 5 years than in later years. This has become a limitation with the availability of effective extended adjuvant endocrine therapies. Newer tests (Prosigna, EndoPredict, Breast Cancer Index) appear to possess better prognostic value for late recurrences while also remaining predictive of early relapse. Some clinical prediction problems are more difficult to solve than others: there are no clinically useful prognostic signatures for ER-negative cancers, and drug-specific treatment response predictors also remain elusive. Emerging areas of research involve the development of immune gene signatures that carry modest but significant prognostic value independent of proliferation and ER status and represent candidate predictive markers for immune-targeted therapies. Overall metrics of tumor heterogeneity and genome integrity (for example, homologue recombination deficiency score) are emerging as potential new predictive markers for platinum agents. The recent expansion of high-throughput technology platforms including low-cost sequencing of circulating and tumor-derived DNA and RNA and rapid reliable quantification of microRNA offers new opportunities to build extended prediction models across multiplatform data. PMID:25848861

  18. Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Patterns of Recurrence in Patients With Pathologic Stage III Endometrial Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Patel, Samir; Portelance, Lorraine . E-mail: lorraine.portelance@muhc.mcgill.ca; Gilbert, Lucy; Tan, Leonard; Stanimir, Gerald; Duclos, Marie; Souhami, Luis

    2007-08-01

    Purpose: To retrospectively assess prognostic factors and patterns of recurrence in patients with pathologic Stage III endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2003, 107 patients with pathologic International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Stage III endometrial adenocarcinoma confined to the pelvis were treated at our institution. Adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) was delivered to 68 patients (64%). The influence of multiple patient- and treatment-related factors on pelvic and distant control and overall survival (OS) was evaluated. Results: Median follow-up for patients at risk was 41 months. Five-year actuarial OS was significantly improved in patients treated with adjuvant RT (68%) compared with those with resection alone (50%; p = 0.029). Age, histology, grade, uterine serosal invasion, adnexal involvement, number of extrauterine sites, and treatment with adjuvant RT predicted for improved survival in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that grade, uterine serosal invasion, and treatment with adjuvant RT were independent predictors of survival. Five-year actuarial pelvic control was improved significantly with the delivery of adjuvant RT (74% vs. 49%; p = 0.011). Depth of myometrial invasion and treatment with adjuvant RT were independent predictors of pelvic control in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Multiple prognostic factors predicting for the outcome of pathologic Stage III endometrial cancer patients were identified in this analysis. In particular, delivery of adjuvant RT seems to be a significant independent predictor for improved survival and pelvic control, suggesting that pelvic RT should be routinely considered in the management of these patients.

  19. Prognostic Implication of Predominant Histologic Subtypes of Lymph Node Metastases in Surgically Resected Lung Adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Suda, Kenichi; Sato, Katsuaki; Tomizawa, Kenji; Takemoto, Toshiki; Iwasaki, Takuya; Sakaguchi, Masahiro; Mitsudomi, Tetsuya

    2014-01-01

    The International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, American Thoracic Society, and European Respiratory Society (IASLC/ATS/ERS) proposed a new classification for lung adenocarcinoma (AD) based on predominant histologic subtypes, such as lepidic, papillary, acinar, solid, and micropapillary; this system reportedly reflects well outcomes of patients with surgically resected lung AD. However, the prognostic implication of predominant histologic subtypes in lymph nodes metastases is unclear so far. In this study, we compared predominant subtypes between primary lung tumors and lymph node metastatic lesions in 24 patients with surgically treated lung adenocarcinoma with lymph node metastases. Additionally, we analyzed prognostic implications of these predominant histologic subtypes. We observed several discordance patterns between predominant subtypes in primary lung tumors and lymph node metastases. Concordance rates were 22%, 64%, and 100%, respectively, in papillary-, acinar-, and solid-predominant primary lung tumors. We observed that the predominant subtype in the primary lung tumor (HR 12.7, P = 0.037), but not that in lymph node metastases (HR 0.18, P = 0.13), determines outcomes in patients with surgically resected lung AD with lymph node metastases. PMID:25371901

  20. Prognostic implication of predominant histologic subtypes of lymph node metastases in surgically resected lung adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Suda, Kenichi; Sato, Katsuaki; Shimizu, Shigeki; Tomizawa, Kenji; Takemoto, Toshiki; Iwasaki, Takuya; Sakaguchi, Masahiro; Mitsudomi, Tetsuya

    2014-01-01

    The International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, American Thoracic Society, and European Respiratory Society (IASLC/ATS/ERS) proposed a new classification for lung adenocarcinoma (AD) based on predominant histologic subtypes, such as lepidic, papillary, acinar, solid, and micropapillary; this system reportedly reflects well outcomes of patients with surgically resected lung AD. However, the prognostic implication of predominant histologic subtypes in lymph nodes metastases is unclear so far. In this study, we compared predominant subtypes between primary lung tumors and lymph node metastatic lesions in 24 patients with surgically treated lung adenocarcinoma with lymph node metastases. Additionally, we analyzed prognostic implications of these predominant histologic subtypes. We observed several discordance patterns between predominant subtypes in primary lung tumors and lymph node metastases. Concordance rates were 22%, 64%, and 100%, respectively, in papillary-, acinar-, and solid-predominant primary lung tumors. We observed that the predominant subtype in the primary lung tumor (HR 12.7, P = 0.037), but not that in lymph node metastases (HR 0.18, P = 0.13), determines outcomes in patients with surgically resected lung AD with lymph node metastases. PMID:25371901

  1. Development of prognostic models for patients with traumatic brain injury: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Jinxi; Zheng, Zhaocong

    2015-01-01

    Outcome prediction following traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a widely investigated field of research. Several outcome prediction models have been developed for prognosis after TBI. There are two main prognostic models: International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) prognosis calculator and the Corticosteroid Randomization after Significant Head Injury (CRASH) prognosis calculator. The prognosis model has three or four levels: (1) model A included age, motor GCS, and pupil reactivity; (2) model B included predictors from model A with CT characteristics; and (3) model C included predictors from model B with laboratory parameters. In consideration of the fact that interventions after admission, such as ICP management also have prognostic value for outcome predictions and may improve the models’ performance, Yuan F et al developed another prediction model (model D) which includes ICP. With the development of molecular biology, a handful of brain injury biomarkers were reported that may improve the predictive power of prognostic models, including neuron-specific enolase (NSE), glial fibrillary acid protein (GFAP), S-100β protein, tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6), myelin basic protein (MBP), cleaved tau protein (C-tau), spectrin breakdown products (SBDPs), and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1), and sex hormones. A total of 40 manuscripts reporting 11 biomarkers were identified in the literature. Many substances have been implicated as potential biomarkers for TBI; however, no single biomarker has shown the necessary sensitivity and specificity for predicting outcome. The limited number of publications in this field underscores the need for further investigation. Through fluid biomarker analysis, the advent of multi-analyte profiling technology has enabled substantial advances in the diagnosis and treatment of a variety of conditions. Application of this technology to create a bio

  2. Recent Advancements in Prognostic Factors of Epithelial Ovarian Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Ezzati, Mohammad; Abdullah, Amer; Shariftabrizi, Ahmad; Hou, June; Kopf, Michael; Stedman, Jennifer K.; Samuelson, Robert; Shahabi, Shohreh

    2014-01-01

    Ovarian cancer remains the most common cause of gynecologic cancer-related death among women in developed countries. Nevertheless, subgroups of ovarian cancer patients experience relatively longer survival. Efforts to identify prognostic factors that characterize such patients are ongoing, with investigational areas including tumor characteristics, surgical management, inheritance patterns, immunologic factors, and genomic patterns. This review discusses various demographic, clinical, and molecular factors implicating longevity and ovarian cancer survival. Continued efforts at identifying these prognosticators may result in invaluable adjuncts to the treatment of ovarian cancer, with the ultimate goal of advancing patient care.

  3. Distributed Prognostics and Health Management with a Wireless Network Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Saha, Sankalita; Sha, Bhaskar

    2013-01-01

    A heterogeneous set of system components monitored by a varied suite of sensors and a particle-filtering (PF) framework, with the power and the flexibility to adapt to the different diagnostic and prognostic needs, has been developed. Both the diagnostic and prognostic tasks are formulated as a particle-filtering problem in order to explicitly represent and manage uncertainties in state estimation and remaining life estimation. Current state-of-the-art prognostic health management (PHM) systems are mostly centralized in nature, where all the processing is reliant on a single processor. This can lead to a loss in functionality in case of a crash of the central processor or monitor. Furthermore, with increases in the volume of sensor data as well as the complexity of algorithms, traditional centralized systems become for a number of reasons somewhat ungainly for successful deployment, and efficient distributed architectures can be more beneficial. The distributed health management architecture is comprised of a network of smart sensor devices. These devices monitor the health of various subsystems or modules. They perform diagnostics operations and trigger prognostics operations based on user-defined thresholds and rules. The sensor devices, called computing elements (CEs), consist of a sensor, or set of sensors, and a communication device (i.e., a wireless transceiver beside an embedded processing element). The CE runs in either a diagnostic or prognostic operating mode. The diagnostic mode is the default mode where a CE monitors a given subsystem or component through a low-weight diagnostic algorithm. If a CE detects a critical condition during monitoring, it raises a flag. Depending on availability of resources, a networked local cluster of CEs is formed that then carries out prognostics and fault mitigation by efficient distribution of the tasks. It should be noted that the CEs are expected not to suspend their previous tasks in the prognostic mode. When the

  4. Single nucleotide polymorphism array karyotyping: a diagnostic and prognostic tool in myelodysplastic syndromes with unsuccessful conventional cytogenetic testing.

    PubMed

    Arenillas, Leonor; Mallo, Mar; Ramos, Fernando; Guinta, Kathryn; Barragán, Eva; Lumbreras, Eva; Larráyoz, María-José; De Paz, Raquel; Tormo, Mar; Abáigar, María; Pedro, Carme; Cervera, José; Such, Esperanza; José Calasanz, María; Díez-Campelo, María; Sanz, Guillermo F; Hernández, Jesús María; Luño, Elisa; Saumell, Sílvia; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Florensa, Lourdes; Solé, Francesc

    2013-12-01

    Cytogenetic aberrations identified by metaphase cytogenetics (MC) have diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic implications in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). However, in some MDS patients MC study is unsuccesful. Single nucleotide polymorphism array (SNP-A) based karyotyping could be helpful in these cases. We performed SNP-A in 62 samples from bone marrow or peripheral blood of primary MDS with an unsuccessful MC study. SNP-A analysis enabled the detection of aberrations in 31 (50%) patients. We used the copy number alteration information to apply the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) and we observed differences in survival between the low/intermediate-1 and intermediate-2/high risk patients. We also saw differences in survival between very low/low/intermediate and the high/very high patients when we applied the revised IPSS (IPSS-R). In conclusion, SNP-A can be used successfully in PB samples and the identification of CNA by SNP-A improve the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of this group of MDS patients. PMID:24123380

  5. Chromosomal aberrations and their prognostic value in a series of 174 untreated patients with Waldenström's macroglobulinemia

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen-Khac, Florence; Lambert, Jerome; Chapiro, Elise; Grelier, Aurore; Mould, Sarah; Barin, Carole; Daudignon, Agnes; Gachard, Nathalie; Struski, Stéphanie; Henry, Catherine; Penther, Dominique; Mossafa, Hossein; Andrieux, Joris; Eclache, Virginie; Bilhou-Nabera, Chrystèle; Luquet, Isabelle; Terre, Christine; Baranger, Laurence; Mugneret, Francine; Chiesa, Jean; Mozziconacci, Marie-Joelle; Callet-Bauchu, Evelyne; Veronese, Lauren; Blons, Hélène; Owen, Roger; Lejeune, Julie; Chevret, Sylvie; Merle-Beral, Hélène; Leblondon, Véronique

    2013-01-01

    Waldenström's macroglobulinemia is a disease of mature B cells, the genetic basis of which is poorly understood. Few recurrent chromosomal abnormalities have been reported, and their prognostic value is not known. We conducted a prospective cytogenetic study of Waldenström's macroglobulinemia and examined the prognostic value of chromosomal aberrations in an international randomized trial. The main aberrations were 6q deletions (30%), trisomy 18 (15%), 13q deletions (13%), 17p (TP53) deletions (8%), trisomy 4 (8%), and 11q (ATM) deletions (7%). There was a significant association between trisomy of chromosome 4 and trisomy of chromosome 18. Translocations involving the IGH genes were rare (<5%). Deletion of 6q and 11q, and trisomy 4, were significantly associated with adverse clinical and biological parameters. Patients with TP53 deletion had short progression-free survival and short disease-free survival. Although rare (<5%), trisomy 12 was associated with short progression-free survival. In conclusion, the cytogenetic profile of Waldenström's macroglobulinemia appears to differ from that of other B-cell lymphomas. Chromosomal abnormalities may help with diagnosis and prognostication, in conjunction with other clinical and biological characteristics. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, numbers NCT00566332 and NCT00608374. PMID:23065509

  6. WPSS is a strong prognostic indicator for clinical outcome of allogeneic transplant for myelodysplastic syndrome in Southeast Asian patients.

    PubMed

    Ma, Liyuan; Hao, Siguo; Diong, Colin; Goh, Yeow-Tee; Gopalakrishnan, Sathish; Ho, Aloysius; Hwang, William; Koh, Liang-Piu; Koh, Mickey; Lim, Zi-Yi; Loh, Yvonne; Poon, Michelle; Tan, Lip-Kun; Tan, Patrick; Linn, Yeh-Ching

    2015-05-01

    To better understand the predictive factors and improve clinical outcome of allogeneic transplant for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), we retrospectively analyzed the post-transplant outcome of 60 Southeast Asian patients with MDS. Multivariate analysis showed that WHO classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) significantly affect overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR), and cumulative incidence of non-relapse mortality (CINRM). Stratified by WPSS into very low/low, intermediate, high, and very high-risk categories, 3-year OS was 100, 61, 37, and 18% (p = 0.02); PFS was 100, 55, 32, and 18% (p = 0.014); CIR was 12, 24, 38, and 59% (p = 0.024); CINRM was 0, 6, 12, and 26% (p = 0.037), respectively. WHO classification, Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R), IPSS-R-defined cytogenetic risk groups, donor gender, and acute and chronic graft vs host disease (GVHD) also influenced different aspects of transplant outcome. We found that WPSS is a powerful predictor of post-transplant outcome. WPSS provides an important model not only for prognostication but also for exploration of further post-transplant measures such as immunological maneuvers or novel therapy to improve the poor outcome of high-risk patients. PMID:25519475

  7. Baseline renal function as a prognostic indicator in patients with newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Junshik; Lee, Sojung; Chun, Gayoung; Jung, Ji Yong; Park, Jinny; Ahn, Jeong Yeal; Cho, Eun Kyung; Shin, Dong Bok

    2016-01-01

    Background The association between baseline renal impairment (RI) and the prognosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) was previously not defined. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of RI in patients with DLBCL treated with three-weekly rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, Adriamycin, vincristine, and prednisolone immunochemotherapy (R-CHOP21). Methods Patients with newly diagnosed de novo DLBCLs treated with ≥1 cycle of R-CHOP21 were analyzed retrospectively. Pretreatment blood samples were collected and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was calculated. RI was defined by a GFR of <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 according to the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formula. Results Of the 185 patients enrolled in the present study, 19 patients (10.3%) had RI. The reasons for baseline RI were pre-existing CKD (N=5), acute kidney injury due to either obstruction (N=2) or electrolyte imbalance (N=2) related to DLBCL, and undefined causes (N=10). Patients with baseline RI showed inferior overall survival (OS) compared to those without RI (P<0.001). In multivariate analysis, RI was identified as an International Prognostic Index (IPI)-independent prognostic indicator. A baseline hemoglobin level of <10 g/dL and the presence of RI effectively discriminated a portion of the patients with far inferior event-free survival and OS among the patients having high or high-intermediate risk cancers according to either the standard- or the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI. Conclusion Pretreatment RI was an independent prognostic marker for inferior OS in patients with DLBCL treated with R-CHOP21 immunochemotherapy. PMID:27382556

  8. Prognostic value of interim and end-of-treatment FDG-PET in follicular lymphoma: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Adams, Hugo J A; Nievelstein, Rutger A J; Kwee, Thomas C

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to systematically review the prognostic value of interim and end-of-treatment (18)F-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in follicular lymphoma during and after first-line therapy. The PubMed/MEDLINE database was searched for relevant original studies. Included studies were methodologically assessed, and their results were extracted and descriptively analyzed. Three studies on the prognostic value of interim FDG-PET and eight studies on the prognostic value of end-of-treatment FDG-PET were included. Overall, studies were of poor methodological quality. In addition, there was incomplete reporting of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) data by several studies, and none of the studies incorporated the Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) in the OS analyses. Two studies reported no significant difference in PFS between interim FDG-PET positive and negative patients, whereas one study reported a significant difference in PFS between the two groups. Two studies reported no significant difference in OS between interim FDG-PET positive and negative patients. Five studies reported end-of-treatment FDG-PET positive patients to have a significantly worse PFS than end-of-treatment FDG-PET negative patients, and one study reported a non-significant trend towards a worse PFS for end-of-treatment FDG-PET positive patients. Three studies reported end-of-treatment FDG-PET positive patients to have a significantly worse OS than end-of-treatment FDG-PET negative patients. In conclusion, the available evidence does not support the use of interim FDG-PET in follicular lymphoma. Although published studies suggest end-of-treatment FDG-PET to be predictive of PFS and OS, they suffer from numerous biases and failure to correct OS prediction for the FLIPI. PMID:26576560

  9. Prognostics of Power Electronics, Methods and Validation Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Failure of electronic devices is a concern for future electric aircrafts that will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. As a result, investigation of precursors to failure in electronics and prediction of remaining life of electronic components is of key importance. DC-DC power converters are power electronics systems employed typically as sourcing elements for avionics equipment. Current research efforts in prognostics for these power systems focuses on the identification of failure mechanisms and the development of accelerated aging methodologies and systems to accelerate the aging process of test devices, while continuously measuring key electrical and thermal parameters. Preliminary model-based prognostics algorithms have been developed making use of empirical degradation models and physics-inspired degradation model with focus on key components like electrolytic capacitors and power MOSFETs (metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect-transistor). This paper presents current results on the development of validation methods for prognostics algorithms of power electrolytic capacitors. Particularly, in the use of accelerated aging systems for algorithm validation. Validation of prognostics algorithms present difficulties in practice due to the lack of run-to-failure experiments in deployed systems. By using accelerated experiments, we circumvent this problem in order to define initial validation activities.

  10. Gender differences in prognostic factors for oral cancer.

    PubMed

    Honorato, J; Rebelo, M S; Dias, F L; Camisasca, D R; Faria, P A; Azevedo e Silva, G; Lourenço, S Q C

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to assess gender differences in prognostic factors among patients treated surgically for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). The medical records of 477 eligible patients (345 males, 132 females) obtained from the Brazilian Cancer Institute were reviewed. Survival was calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression models were used to obtain adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for males and females. Multivariate analysis showed that past tobacco use (aHR 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.7) and regional metastasis (aHR 2.3, 95% CI 1.5-3.5) in males, and regional metastasis (aHR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-4.3), distant metastasis (aHR 6.7, 95% CI 1.3-32.7), and hard palate tumours (aHR 11.8, 95% CI 3.3-47.7) in females, were associated with a higher risk of death. There were no differences in survival between males and females. Regional metastasis was found to be a negative prognostic factor in OSCC for both genders. Past tobacco use was an independent prognostic factor for worse survival among males, while distant metastasis and hard palate tumours were independent prognostic factors for worse survival among females. Further studies are necessary to corroborate the relationships found in this study. PMID:26183881

  11. Bayesian framework for aerospace gas turbine engine prognostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaidan, M. A.; Mills, A. R.; Harrison, R. F.

    Prognostics is an emerging capability of modern health monitoring that aims to increase the fidelity of failure predictions. In the aerospace industry, it is a key technology to maximise aircraft availability, offering a route to increase time in-service and reduce operational disruption through improved asset management.

  12. Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

  13. Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

  14. A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models.

    PubMed

    Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

    2012-01-30

    New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. PMID:21905066

  15. Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

  16. Prognostic Indexes for Brain Metastases: Which Is the Most Powerful?

    SciTech Connect

    Arruda Viani, Gustavo; Bernardes da Silva, Lucas Godoi; Stefano, Eduardo Jose

    2012-07-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to compare the prognostic indexes (PIs) of patients with brain metastases (BMs) treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) using an artificial neural network. This analysis is important, because it evaluates the prognostic power of each PI to guide clinical decision-making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A retrospective prognostic study was conducted of 412 patients with BMs who underwent WBRT between April 1998 and March 2010. The eligibility criteria for patients included having undergone WBRT or WBRT plus neurosurgery. The data were analyzed using the artificial neural network. The input neural data consisted of all prognostic factors included in the 5 PIs (recursive partitioning analysis, graded prognostic assessment [GPA], basic score for BMs, Rotterdam score, and Germany score). The data set was randomly divided into 300 training and 112 testing examples for survival prediction. All 5 PIs were compared using our database of 412 patients with BMs. The sensibility of the 5 indexes to predict survival according to their input variables was determined statistically using receiver operating characteristic curves. The importance of each variable from each PI was subsequently evaluated. Results: The overall 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rate was 22%, 10.2%, and 5.1%, respectively. All classes of PIs were significantly associated with survival (recursive partitioning analysis, P < .0001; GPA, P < .0001; basic score for BMs, P = .002; Rotterdam score, P = .001; and Germany score, P < .0001). Comparing the areas under the curves, the GPA was statistically most sensitive in predicting survival (GPA, 86%; recursive partitioning analysis, 81%; basic score for BMs, 79%; Rotterdam, 73%; and Germany score, 77%; P < .001). Among the variables included in each PI, the performance status and presence of extracranial metastases were the most important factors. Conclusion: A variety of prognostic models describe the

  17. Serum Prognostic Biomarkers in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Ho-Sheng; Siddiq, Fauzia; Talwar, Harvinder S.; Chen, Wei; Voichita, Calin; Draghici, Sorin; Jeyapalan, Gerald; Chatterjee, Madhumita; Fribley, Andrew; Yoo, George H.; Sethi, Seema; Kim, Harold; Sukari, Ammar; Folbe, Adam J.; Tainsky, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives/Hypothesis A reliable estimate of survival is important as it may impact treatment choice. The objective of this study is to identify serum autoantibody biomarkers that can be used to improve prognostication for patients affected with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Study Design Prospective cohort study. Methods A panel of 130 serum biomarkers, previously selected for cancer detection using microarray-based serological profiling and specialized bioinformatics, were evaluated for their potential as prognostic biomarkers in a cohort of 119 HNSCC patients followed for up to 12.7 years. A biomarker was considered positive if its reactivity to the particular patient’s serum was greater than one standard deviation above the mean reactivity to sera from the other 118 patients, using a leave-one-out cross-validation model. Survival curves were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and statistically significant differences in survival were examined using the log rank test. Independent prognostic biomarkers were identified following analysis using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Results Poor overall survival was associated with African Americans (hazard ratio [HR] for death =2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.58–4.33; P =.000), advanced stage (HR =2.79; 95% CI: 1.40–5.57; P =.004), and recurrent disease (HR =6.66; 95% CI: 2.54–17.44; P =.000). On multivariable Cox analysis adjusted for covariates (race and stage), six of the 130 markers evaluated were found to be independent prognosticators of overall survival. Conclusions The results shown here are promising and demonstrate the potential use of serum biomarkers for prognostication in HNSCC patients. Further clinical trials to include larger samples of patients across multiple centers may be warranted. PMID:24347532

  18. Procalcitonin kinetics – prognostic and diagnostic significance in septic patients

    PubMed Central

    Mierzchała-Pasierb, Magdalena; Durek, Grażyna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Severe sepsis and septic shock are advanced clinical conditions representing the patient's response to infection and having a variable but high mortality rate. Early evaluation of sepsis stage and choice of adequate treatment are key factors for survival. Some study results suggest the necessity of daily procalcitonin (PCT) monitoring because of its prognostic and discriminative value. Material and methods An observational and prospective study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic and discriminative value of PCT kinetics in comparison to PCT absolute value measurements. In a group of 50 intensive care unit patients with diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock, serum PCT measurements were performed on admission, and on the 2nd, 3rd and 5th day of therapy. The level of PCT was determined with a commercially available test according to the manufacturer's protocol. Results The kinetics of PCT assessed by ΔPCT was statistically significant in the survivors vs. the non-survivors subgroup (ΔPCT3/1, p = 0.022; ΔPCT5/1, p = 0.021). ΔPCT has no statistical significance in the severe sepsis and septic shock subgroups for all analyzed days. Only the 5th day PCT level was significantly higher in the non-survivors vs. survivors group (p = 0.008). The 1st day PCT level in the severe sepsis vs. septic shock group has a discriminative impact (p = 0.009). Conclusions According to the results, single serum PCT measurement, regardless of absolute value, has a discriminative impact but no prognostic significance, during the first 2 days of therapy. The PCT kinetics is of prognostic value from the 3rd day and is of earlier prognostic significance in comparison to changes in the patient's clinical condition evaluated by SOFA score kinetics. PMID:26925126

  19. Prognostic models in coronary artery disease: Cox and network approaches

    PubMed Central

    Mora, Antonio; Sicari, Rosa; Cortigiani, Lauro; Carpeggiani, Clara; Picano, Eugenio; Capobianco, Enrico

    2015-01-01

    Predictive assessment of the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases is usually provided by computational approaches centred on Cox models. The complex interdependence structure underlying clinical data patterns can limit the performance of Cox analysis and complicate the interpretation of results, thus calling for complementary and integrative methods. Prognostic models are proposed for studying the risk associated with patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing vasodilator stress echocardiography, an established technique for CAD detection and prognostication. In order to complement standard Cox models, network inference is considered a possible solution to quantify the complex relationships between heterogeneous data categories. In particular, a mutual information network is designed to explore the paths linking patient-associated variables to endpoint events, to reveal prognostic factors and to identify the best possible predictors of death. Data from a prospective, multicentre, observational study are available from a previous study, based on 4313 patients (2532 men; 64±11 years) with known (n=1547) or suspected (n=2766) CAD, who underwent high-dose dipyridamole (0.84 mg kg−1 over 6 min) stress echocardiography with coronary flow reserve (CFR) evaluation of left anterior descending (LAD) artery by Doppler. The overall mortality was the only endpoint analysed by Cox models. The estimated connectivity between clinical variables assigns a complementary value to the proposed network approach in relation to the established Cox model, for instance revealing connectivity paths. Depending on the use of multiple metrics, the constraints of regression analysis in measuring the association strength among clinical variables can be relaxed, and identification of communities and prognostic paths can be provided. On the basis of evidence from various model comparisons, we show in this CAD study that there may be characteristic

  20. Prognostic models in coronary artery disease: Cox and network approaches.

    PubMed

    Mora, Antonio; Sicari, Rosa; Cortigiani, Lauro; Carpeggiani, Clara; Picano, Eugenio; Capobianco, Enrico

    2015-02-01

    Predictive assessment of the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases is usually provided by computational approaches centred on Cox models. The complex interdependence structure underlying clinical data patterns can limit the performance of Cox analysis and complicate the interpretation of results, thus calling for complementary and integrative methods. Prognostic models are proposed for studying the risk associated with patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing vasodilator stress echocardiography, an established technique for CAD detection and prognostication. In order to complement standard Cox models, network inference is considered a possible solution to quantify the complex relationships between heterogeneous data categories. In particular, a mutual information network is designed to explore the paths linking patient-associated variables to endpoint events, to reveal prognostic factors and to identify the best possible predictors of death. Data from a prospective, multicentre, observational study are available from a previous study, based on 4313 patients (2532 men; 64±11 years) with known (n=1547) or suspected (n=2766) CAD, who underwent high-dose dipyridamole (0.84 mg kg(-1) over 6 min) stress echocardiography with coronary flow reserve (CFR) evaluation of left anterior descending (LAD) artery by Doppler. The overall mortality was the only endpoint analysed by Cox models. The estimated connectivity between clinical variables assigns a complementary value to the proposed network approach in relation to the established Cox model, for instance revealing connectivity paths. Depending on the use of multiple metrics, the constraints of regression analysis in measuring the association strength among clinical variables can be relaxed, and identification of communities and prognostic paths can be provided. On the basis of evidence from various model comparisons, we show in this CAD study that there may be characteristic

  1. Autophagy-related prognostic signature for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Gu, Yunyan; Li, Pengfei; Peng, Fuduan; Zhang, Mengmeng; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Liang, Haihai; Zhao, Wenyuan; Qi, Lishuang; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Chenguang; Guo, Zheng

    2016-03-01

    Autophagy is a process that degrades intracellular constituents, such as long-lived or damaged proteins and organelles, to buffer metabolic stress under starvation conditions. Deregulation of autophagy is involved in the progression of cancer. However, the predictive value of autophagy for breast cancer prognosis remains unclear. First, based on gene expression profiling, we found that autophagy genes were implicated in breast cancer. Then, using the Cox proportional hazard regression model, we detected autophagy prognostic signature for breast cancer in a training dataset. We identified a set of eight autophagy genes (BCL2, BIRC5, EIF4EBP1, ERO1L, FOS, GAPDH, ITPR1 and VEGFA) that were significantly associated with overall survival in breast cancer. The eight autophagy genes were assigned as a autophagy-related prognostic signature for breast cancer. Based on the autophagy-related signature, the training dataset GSE21653 could be classified into high-risk and low-risk subgroups with significantly different survival times (HR = 2.72, 95% CI = (1.91, 3.87); P = 1.37 × 10(-5)). Inactivation of autophagy was associated with shortened survival of breast cancer patients. The prognostic value of the autophagy-related signature was confirmed in the testing dataset GSE3494 (HR = 2.12, 95% CI = (1.48, 3.03); P = 1.65 × 10(-3)) and GSE7390 (HR = 1.76, 95% CI = (1.22, 2.54); P = 9.95 × 10(-4)). Further analysis revealed that the prognostic value of the autophagy signature was independent of known clinical prognostic factors, including age, tumor size, grade, estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, ERBB2 status, lymph node status and TP53 mutation status. Finally, we demonstrated that the autophagy signature could also predict distant metastasis-free survival for breast cancer. PMID:25620657

  2. Prognostics Approach for Power MOSFET Under Thermal-Stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Galvan, Jose Ramon Celaya; Saxena, Abhinav; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    The prognostic technique for a power MOSFET presented in this paper is based on accelerated aging of MOSFET IRF520Npbf in a TO-220 package. The methodology utilizes thermal and power cycling to accelerate the life of the devices. The major failure mechanism for the stress conditions is dieattachment degradation, typical for discrete devices with leadfree solder die attachment. It has been determined that dieattach degradation results in an increase in ON-state resistance due to its dependence on junction temperature. Increasing resistance, thus, can be used as a precursor of failure for the die-attach failure mechanism under thermal stress. A feature based on normalized ON-resistance is computed from in-situ measurements of the electro-thermal response. An Extended Kalman filter is used as a model-based prognostics techniques based on the Bayesian tracking framework. The proposed prognostics technique reports on preliminary work that serves as a case study on the prediction of remaining life of power MOSFETs and builds upon the work presented in [1]. The algorithm considered in this study had been used as prognostics algorithm in different applications and is regarded as suitable candidate for component level prognostics. This work attempts to further the validation of such algorithm by presenting it with real degradation data including measurements from real sensors, which include all the complications (noise, bias, etc.) that are regularly not captured on simulated degradation data. The algorithm is developed and tested on the accelerated aging test timescale. In real world operation, the timescale of the degradation process and therefore the RUL predictions will be considerable larger. It is hypothesized that even though the timescale will be larger, it remains constant through the degradation process and the algorithm and model would still apply under the slower degradation process. By using accelerated aging data with actual device measurements and real

  3. Assessment of prognostic scores in brain metastases from breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Tabouret, Emeline; Metellus, Philippe; Gonçalves, Anthony; Esterni, Benjamin; Charaffe-Jauffret, Emmanuelle; Viens, Patrice; Tallet, Agnés

    2014-01-01

    Background Breast cancer (BC) is the second most common cause of brain metastases (BM). Optimal management of BM from BC is still debated. In an attempt to provide appropriate treatment and to assist with optimal patient selection, several specific prognostic classifications for BM from BC have been established. We evaluated the prognostic value and validity of the 6 proposed scoring systems in an independent population of BC patients with BM. Methods We retrospectively reviewed all consecutive BC patients referred to our institution for newly diagnosed BM between October 1995 and July 2011 (n = 149). Each of the 6 scores proposed for BM from BC (Sperduto, Niwinska, Park, Nieder, Le Scodan, and Claude) was applied to this population. The discriminative ability of each score was assessed using the Brier score and the C-index. Individual prognostic values of clinical and histological factors were analyzed using uni- and multivariate analyses. Results Median overall survival was 15.1 months (95% CI,11.5–18.7). Sperduto-GPA (P < .001), Nieder (P < .001), Park (P < .001), Claude (P < .001), Niwinska (P < .001), and Le Scodan (P = .034) scores all showed significant prognostic value. The Nieder score showed the best discriminative ability (C-index, 0.672; Brier score error reduction, 16.1%). Conclusion The majority of prognostic scores were relevant for patients with BM from BC in our independent population, and the Nieder score seems to present the best predictive value but showed a relatively low positive predictive value. Thus, these results remain insufficient and challenge the routine use of these scoring systems. PMID:24311640

  4. A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saxen, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  5. Population-specific prognostic models are needed to stratify outcomes for African-Americans with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Nastoupil, Loretta J; Koff, Jean L; Staton, Ashley D; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Flowers, Christopher R

    2016-04-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) demonstrates significant racial differences in age of onset, stage, and survival. To examine whether population-specific models improve prediction of outcomes for African-American (AA) patients with DLBCL, we utilized Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data and compared stratification by the international prognostic index (IPI) in general and AA populations. We also constructed and compared prognostic models for general and AA populations using multivariable logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network approaches. While the IPI adequately stratified outcomes for the general population, it failed to separate AA DLBCL patients into distinct risk groups. Our AA LR model identified age ≥ 55 (odds ratio 0.45, [95% CI: 0.36, 0.56], male sex (0.75, [0.60, 0.93]), and stage III/IV disease (0.43, [0.34, 0.54]) as adverse predictors of 5-year survival for AA patients. In addition, general-population prognostic models were poorly calibrated for AAs with DLBCL, indicating a need for validated AA-specific prognostic models. PMID:26415108

  6. Prognostic value of FLT3 mutations in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia treated with all-trans retinoic acid and anthracycline monochemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Barragán, Eva; Montesinos, Pau; Camos, Mireia; González, Marcos; Calasanz, Maria J.; Román-Gómez, José; Gómez-Casares, Maria T.; Ayala, Rosa; López, Javier; Fuster, Óscar; Colomer, Dolors; Chillón, Carmen; Larrayoz, María J.; Sánchez-Godoy, Pedro; González-Campos, José; Manso, Félix; Amador, Maria L.; Vellenga, Edo; Lowenberg, Bob; Sanz, Miguel A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Fms-like tyrosine kinase-3 (FLT3) gene mutations are frequent in acute promyelocytic leukemia but their prognostic value is not well established. Design and Methods We evaluated FLT3-internal tandem duplication and FLT3-D835 mutations in patients treated with all-trans retinoic acid and anthracycline-based chemotherapy enrolled in two subsequent trials of the Programa de Estudio y Tratamiento de las Hemopatías Malignas (PETHEMA) and Hemato-Oncologie voor Volwassenen Nederland (HOVON) groups between 1996 and 2005. Results FLT3-internal tandem duplication and FLT3-D835 mutation status was available for 306 (41%) and 213 (29%) patients, respectively. Sixty-eight (22%) and 20 (9%) patients had internal tandem duplication and D835 mutations, respectively. Internal tandem duplication was correlated with higher white blood cell and blast counts, lactate dehydrogenase, relapse-risk score, fever, hemorrhage, coagulopathy, BCR3 isoform, M3 variant subtype, and expression of CD2, CD34, human leukocyte antigen-DR, and CD11b surface antigens. The FLT3-D835 mutation was not significantly associated with any clinical or biological characteristic. Univariate analysis showed higher relapse and lower survival rates in patients with a FLT3-internal tandem duplication, while no impact was observed in relation to FLT3-D835. The prognostic value of the FLT3-internal tandem duplication was not retained in the multivariate analysis. Conclusions FLT3-internal tandem duplication mutations are associated with several hematologic features in acute promyelocytic leukemia, in particular with high white blood cell counts, but we were unable to demonstrate an independent prognostic value in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia treated with all-trans retinoic acid and anthracycline-based regimens. PMID:21685470

  7. Damage Assessment Technologies for Prognostics and Proactive Management of Materials Degradation (PMMD)

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Leonard J.; Doctor, Steven R.; Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Hull, Amy B.; Malik, Shah

    2009-01-16

    There are approximately 440 operating reactors in the global nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet with an average age greater than 20 years and design lives of 30 or 40 years. The United States is currently implementing license extensions of 20 years on many plants, and consideration is now being given to the concept of "life-beyond-60", license extension from 60 to 80 years and potentially longer. In almost all countries with NPPs, authorities are looking at some form of license renewal program. In support of NPP license renewal over the past decade, various national and international programs have been initiated. This paper discusses stressor-based prognostics and its role as part of emerging trends in Proactive Management of Materials Degradation (PMMD) applied to nuclear power plant structures, systems and components (SSC). The paper concisely explains the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) program in PMMD, the basic principles of PMMD and its relationship to advanced diagnostics and prognostics. It then provides an assessment of the state of maturity for diagnostic and prognostic technologies, including NDE and related technologies for damage assessment, and the current trend to move from condition-based maintenance to on-line monitoring for advanced diagnostics and stressor-based prognostics. This development in technology requires advances in sensors; better understanding of what and how to measure within a nuclear power plant; enhanced data interrogation, communication and integration; new prediction models for damage/aging evolution; system integration for real-world deployments and quantification of uncertainties in what are inherently ill-posed problems. Stressor-based analysis is based upon understanding which stressor characteristics (e.g., pressure transients) provide a percussive indication that can be used for mapping subsequent damage due to a specific degradation mechanism. The resulting physical damage and the associated decrease in asset

  8. Fibronectin as a Prognostic Indicator in Portal Hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Maharaj, D. P.; Garden, O. J.; Carter, D. C.

    1992-01-01

    Plasma fibronectin levels were measured in 33 patients with portal hypertension and c6mpared with modified Child’s grading and a previously described prognostic index. Outcome at one year from blood sampling was recorded. Mean plasma fibronectin level was 304.1 mg/ml (sem 24.3) and significantly lower levels were found in patients who had had a variceal bleed within the previous seven days. Plasma fibronectin levels tended to be lower in patients with poor liver function as assessed by modified Child’s grading but this did not achieve statistical significance. Plasma fibronectin alone was not an accurate predictor of one year survival in these patients but only one of seven patients who had a plasma fibronectin level below 300mg/l in association with a poor prognostic index survived for one year. PMID:1390363

  9. Physics-Based Prognostics for Optimizing Plant Operation

    SciTech Connect

    Leonard J. Bond; Don B. Jarrell

    2005-03-01

    Scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have examined the necessity for optimization of energy plant operation using 'DSOM{reg_sign}'--Decision Support Operation and Maintenance and this has been deployed at several sites. This approach has been expanded to include a prognostics components and tested on a pilot scale service water system, modeled on the design employed in a nuclear power plant. A key element in plant optimization is understanding and controlling the aging process of safety-specific nuclear plant components. This paper reports the development and demonstration of a physics-based approach to prognostic analysis that combines distributed computing, RF data links, the measurement of aging precursor metrics and their correlation with degradation rate and projected machine failure.

  10. Methylator phenotype in colorectal cancer: A prognostic factor or not?

    PubMed

    Gallois, C; Laurent-Puig, P; Taieb, J

    2016-03-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is due to different types of genetic alterations that are translated into different phenotypes. Among them, CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP+) is the most recently involved in carcinogenesis of some CRC. The malignant transformation in this case is mainly due to the transcriptional inactivation of tumor suppressor genes. CIMP+ are reported to be more frequently found in the elderly and in women. The tumors are more frequently located in the proximal part of the colon, BRAF mutated and are associated with microsatellite instability (MSI) phenotype. All sporadic MSI CRC belong to the methylator phenotype, however some non MSI CRC may also harbor a methylator phenotype. The prognostic value of CIMP is not well known. Most studies show a worse prognosis in CIMP+ CRC, and adjuvant treatments seem to be more efficient. We review here the current knowledge on prognostic and predictive values in CIMP+ CRC. PMID:26702883

  11. Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors in early stage Hodgkin's disease

    SciTech Connect

    Tubiana, M.; Henry-Amar, M.; van der Werf-Messing, B.; Henry, J.; Abbatucci, J.; Burgers, M.; Hayat, M.; Somers, R.; Laugier, A.; Carde, P.

    1985-01-01

    A multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors was carried out with a Cox model on 1,139 patients with clinical Stage I + II Hodgkin's disease included in three controlled clinical trials. The following indicators had been prospectively registered: aged, sex, systemic symptoms, erythrocyte sedimentation, results of staging laparotomy when performed, as well as the date and type of treatment. A linear logistic analysis showed that most of the indicators are interrelated. This emphasizes the necessity of a multivariate analysis in order to assess the independent influence of each of them. The two main prognostic indicators for relapse-free survival are systemic symptoms and/or ESR and number of involved areas. The only significant factor for survival after relapse is age. Sex has a small but significant influence on relapse-free survival. The relative influence of each indicator varies with the type of treatment and these variations may help in understanding the biologic significance of the indicators.

  12. Chromosomal anomalies and prognostic markers for intracranial and spinal ependymomas

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Isaac; Nagasawa, Daniel T.; Kim, Won; Spasic, Marko; Trang, Andy; Lu, Daniel C.; Martin, Neil A.

    2013-01-01

    Ependymomas are neoplasms that can occur anywhere along the craniospinal axis. They are the third most common brain tumor in children, representing 10% of pediatric intracranial tumors, 4% of adult brain tumors, and 15% of all spinal cord tumors. As the heterogeneity of ependymomas has severely limited the prognostic value of the World Health Organization grading system, numerous studies have focused on genetic alterations as a potential basis for classification and prognosis. However, this endeavor has proven difficult due to variations of findings depending on tumor location, tumor grade, and patient age. While many have evaluated chromosomal abnormalities for ependymomas as a whole group, others have concentrated their efforts on specific subsets of populations. Here, we review modern findings of chromosomal analyses, their relationships with various genes, and their prognostic implications for intracranial and spinal cord ependymomas. PMID:22516549

  13. Breast thermography. A prognostic indicator for breast cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Isard, H J; Sweitzer, C J; Edelstein, G R

    1988-08-01

    A prognostic classification for thermographic staging of breast cancer has been applied to a cohort of 70 patients from 5040 screenees enrolled in the Albert Einstein Medical Center (AEMC) Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP). A diagnosis of breast cancer was established in each case before December 31, 1980. None of the patients have been lost to follow-up which extended from a minimum of 6 to a maximum of 13 years. Survival rates for those with favorable, equivocal, and poor thermographic factors are compared with each other and with results in accordance with tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification. As of December 31, 1986, there have been 22 (31.4%) deaths, all attributed to breast cancer. The thermographic scoring system clearly shows shorter survival for patients with poor thermographic prognostic factors, 30% surviving at 5 years and only 20% at 10 years compared with overall survival of 80% at 5 years and 70% at 10 years. PMID:3390789

  14. Prognostic relevance of minimal residual disease in colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bork, Ulrich; Grützmann, Robert; Rahbari, Nuh N; Schölch, Sebastian; Distler, Marius; Reissfelder, Christoph; Koch, Moritz; Weitz, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Presence of occult minimal residual disease in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) has a strong prognostic impact on survival. Minimal residual disease plays a major role in disease relapse and formation of metastases in CRC. Analysis of circulating tumor cells (CTC) in the blood is increasingly used in clinical practice for disease monitoring of CRC patients. In this review article the role of CTC, disseminated tumor cells (DTC) in the bone marrow and micrometastases and isolated tumor cells (ITC) in the lymph nodes will be discussed, including literature published until September 2013. Occult disease is a strong prognostic marker for patient survival in CRC and defined by the presence of CTC in the blood, DTC in the bone marrow and/or micrometastases and ITC in the lymph nodes. Minimal residual disease could be used in the future to identify patient groups at risk, who might benefit from individualized treatment options. PMID:25132746

  15. Prognostic determinants in the management of prostatic cancer in Ife.

    PubMed

    Badejo, O A

    1991-01-01

    Sixty-two patients diagnosed as early and advanced cancer of the prostate gland were studied under three categories. The survival rate of those diagnosed early was 80% in the first five years while the overall survival rate in the series was 19.23%. The prognostic determinants in all categories while under therapy was, however, similar. The study confirmed that poor prognostic features were body weight of about 40 kg, haematocrit below 20%, Urea level of 10 mmol/lit and above, raised white cell count, raised erythrocytes sedimentation rate and total confinement to bed. The paper concluded that these findings, in a local pilot study, are of significance and sufficient value to merit further study and clinical evaluation. PMID:1923553

  16. Prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated by transarterial chemoembolization.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Jun; Li, Guojian; Lin, Shuhan; He, Ke; Lai, Hao; Mo, Xianwei; Chen, Jiansi; Lin, Yuan

    2014-01-01

    We aim to investigate the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients treated by transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in Chinese cohort. A total of 2,493 HCC patients treated by TACE were included in this retrospective study. Patients were divided into the younger group (n=1,877) or the elderly group (n=616) based upon their ages (cut-off value of 60 y/o). Chi-square test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare patients' characteristics. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to determine prognostic factors. When compared with the younger group, the elderly group had lower male/female ratio and family liver disease history ratio, as well as advanced stage or Child-Pugh grade B patients. The median survival time was 8 months and 27 months for the younger and the elderly group, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates in the younger group and the elderly group were 31.82%, 12.5%, 6.53%, and 84.66%, 53.28%, 28.39%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that HBV infection, AFP value, TNM stage, Child-Pugh class, portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) and tumor number were independent prognostic factors for the younger patients; the elderly ones had similar independent prognostic factors except for HBV infection. The elderly group had lower male/female ratio and family history ratio, as well as advanced stage or Child-Pugh grade B patients. The elderly seems to have better prognosis than the younger ones, which is probably related to the fact that the elderly have lower tumor burden and better liver function. PMID:24696728

  17. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2014-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  18. The prognostic role of desmoplastic stroma in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Soonawalla, Zahir; Liu, Stanley; O'Neill, Eric; Mukherjee, Somnath; McKenna, W. Gillies; Muschel, Ruth; Fokas, Emmanouil

    2016-01-01

    Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is characterized by an abundant desmoplastic stroma. We examined the prognostic value of stroma density and activity in patients with resectable PDAC treated with surgery and adjuvant gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. FFPE-tissue from the pancreatectomy of 145 patients was immunohistochemically stained for haematoxylin-eosin and Masson's trichrome to assess stroma density, and alpha-smooth muscle actin (αSMA) expression for activated pancreatic stellate cells. Their expression was correlated with clinicopathological characteristics as well as overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), local progression-free survival (LPFS) and distant metastases free-survival (DMFS). After a mean follow-up of 20 months (range, 2–69 months), the median OS was 21 months and the 3-year OS was 35.7%. In multivariate analysis, highly-dense stroma was an independent prognostic parameter for OS (p = 0.001), PFS (p = 0.007), LPFS (p = 0.001) and DMFS (p = 0.002), while αSMA expression lacked significance. Interestingly, highly-dense stroma retained significance for the four clinical endpoints only in early (pT1–2) but not late (pT3–4) stage tumors. Additionally, late pT-stage (pT3–4), the presence of lymph node metastases (pN+ vs pN0), perineural/neural invasion and administration of adjuvant chemotherapy also correlated with prognosis in multivariate analysis. Altogether, stroma density constitutes an independent prognostic marker in PDAC patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Our findings highlight the dynamic complexity of desmoplasia and indicate that highly-dense stroma is correlated with better outcome. Further validation of the prognostic value of stroma as a biomarker and its role in PDAC patients after adjuvant chemotherapy is warranted and will be performed in a prospective study. PMID:26716653

  19. Sensor applications for structural diagnostics and prognostics in aerospace systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghoshal, Anindya; Ayers, James T.; Haile, Mulugeta; Shiao, Michael; Le, Dy D.

    2012-04-01

    There are emerging sensor technologies that will be deployed in future rotorcraft or retrofitted to existing rotorcraft and aircraft for structural diagnostics and prognostics. The vehicle health management system is likely to contain heterogeneous sensor arrays. Thus the structural state awareness may require information data fusion from dissimilar sensor (heterogeneous) system. This paper reviews the state of the art commercial of the shelf (COTS) and emerging sensor technologies for structural damage monitoring of rotorcraft and aircraft health.

  20. Prognostic value of perioperative leukocyte count in resectable gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xiao-Feng; Qian, Jing; Pei, Dong; Zhou, Chen; Røe, Oluf Dimitri; Zhu, Fang; He, Shao-Hua; Qian, Ying-Ying; Zhou, Yue; Xu, Jun; Xu, Jin; Li, Xiao; Ping, Guo-Qiang; Liu, Yi-Qian; Wang, Ping; Guo, Ren-Hua; Shu, Yong-Qian

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the prognostic significance of perioperative leukopenia in patients with resected gastric cancer. METHODS: A total of 614 eligible gastric cancer patients who underwent curative D2 gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled in this study. The relationship between pre- and postoperative hematologic parameters and overall survival was assessed statistically, adjusted for known prognostic factors. RESULTS: The mean white blood cell count (WBC) significantly decreased after surgery, and 107/614 (17.4%) patients developed p-leukopenia, which was defined as a preoperative WBC ≥ 4.0 × 109/L and postoperative WBC < 4.0 × 109/L, with an absolute decrease ≥ 0.5 × 109/L. The neutrophil count decreased significantly more than the lymphocyte count. P-leukopenia significantly correlated with poor tumor differentiation and preoperative WBC. A higher preoperative WBC and p-leukopenia were independent negative prognostic factors for survival [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.602, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.185-2.165; P = 0.002, and HR = 1.478, 95%CI: 1.149-1.902; P = 0.002, respectively] after adjusting for histology, Borrmann type, pTNM stage, vascular or neural invasion, gastrectomy method, resection margins, chemotherapy regimens, and preoperative WBC count. The patients with both higher preoperative WBC and p-leukopenia had a worse prognosis compared to those with lower baseline WBC and no p-leukopenia (27.5 mo vs 57.3 mo, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative leukocytosis alone or in combination with postoperative leukopenia could be independent prognostic factors for survival in patients with resectable gastric cancer. PMID:26973420

  1. Bone and Soft Tissue Pathology: Diagnostic and Prognostic Implications.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Julie; Henderson-Jackson, Evita; Bui, Marilyn M

    2016-10-01

    Soft tissue and bone tumors are a heterogeneous group of tumors most often classified according to the type of tissue they most closely histologically resemble. Although sarcomas are rare, greater than 100 histologic subtypes of benign and malignant soft tissue and bone tumors are currently recognized. In this article, the authors review the current pathologic definitions, the classification and grading systems, supportive ancillary techniques, and the prognostic implications for some of the more common soft tissue and bone tumors. PMID:27542635

  2. Predictive and prognostic value of FDG-PET

    PubMed Central

    Oyen, Wim J.G.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract The predictive and prognostic value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET) in non-small-cell lung carcinoma, colorectal carcinoma and lymphoma is discussed. The degree of FDG uptake is of prognostic value at initial presentation, after induction treatment prior to resection and in the case of relapse of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In locally advanced and advanced stages of NSCLC, FDG-PET has been shown to be predictive for clinical outcome at an early stage of treatment. In colorectal carcinoma, limited studies are available on the prognostic value of FDG-PET, however, the technique appears to have great potential in monitoring the success of local ablative therapies soon after intervention and in the prediction and evaluation of response to radiotherapy, systemic therapy, and combinations thereof. The prognostic value of end-of treatment FDG-PET for FDG-avid lymphomas has been established, and the next step is to define how to use this information to optimize patient outcome. In Hodgkin's lymphoma, FDG-PET has a high negative predictive value, however, histological confirmation of positive findings should be sought where possible. For non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, the opposite applies. The newly published standardized guidelines for interpretation formulates specific criteria for visual interpretation and for defining PET positivity in the liver, spleen, lung, bone marrow and small residual lesions. The introduction of these guidelines should reduce variability among studies. Interim PET offers a reliable method for early prediction of long-term remission, however it should only be performed in prospective randomized controlled trials. Many of the diagnostic and management questions considered in this review are relevant to other tumour types. Further research in this field is of great importance, since it may lead to a change in the therapeutic concept of cancer. The preliminary findings call for systematic inclusion of FDG

  3. Molecular Pathology: Prognostic and Diagnostic Genomic Markers for Myeloid Neoplasms.

    PubMed

    Kuo, Frank C

    2016-09-01

    Application of next-generation sequencing (NGS) on myeloid neoplasms has expanded our knowledge of genomic alterations in this group of diseases. Genomic alterations in myeloid neoplasms are complex, heterogeneous, and not specific to a disease entity. NGS-based panel testing of myeloid neoplasms can complement existing diagnostic modalities and is gaining acceptance in the clinics and diagnostic laboratories. Prospective, randomized trials to evaluate the prognostic significance of genomic markers in myeloid neoplasms are under way in academic medical centers. PMID:27523973

  4. New prognostic model for extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type.

    PubMed

    Cai, Qingqing; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Guanrong; Huang, Huiqiang; Huang, Hui; Lin, Tongyu; Jiang, Wenqi; Xia, Zhongjun; Young, Ken H

    2014-09-01

    Extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTL) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in affected patients. We designed a new prognostic model specifically for ENKTL to identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive therapy. We retrospectively reviewed 158 patients who were newly diagnosed with ENKTL. The estimated 5-year overall survival rate was 39.4 %. Independent prognostic factors included total protein (TP) <60 g/L, fasting blood glucose (FBG) >100 mg/dL, and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) score ≥2. We constructed a new prognostic model by combining these prognostic factors: group 1 (64 cases (41.0 %)), no adverse factors; group 2 (58 cases (37.2 %)), one adverse factor; and group 3 (34 cases (21.8 %)), two or three adverse factors. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of these groups were 66.7, 23.0, and 5.9 %, respectively (p < 0.001). Our new prognostic model had a better prognostic value than did the KPI model alone (p < 0.001). Our proposed prognostic model for ENKTL, including the newly identified prognostic indicators, TP and FBG, demonstrated a balanced distribution of patients into different risk groups with better prognostic discrimination compared with the KPI model alone. PMID:24782120

  5. Communication Optimizations for a Wireless Distributed Prognostic Framework

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, Kai

    2009-01-01

    Distributed architecture for prognostics is an essential step in prognostic research in order to enable feasible real-time system health management. Communication overhead is an important design problem for such systems. In this paper we focus on communication issues faced in the distributed implementation of an important class of algorithms for prognostics - particle filters. In spite of being computation and memory intensive, particle filters lend well to distributed implementation except for one significant step - resampling. We propose new resampling scheme called parameterized resampling that attempts to reduce communication between collaborating nodes in a distributed wireless sensor network. Analysis and comparison with relevant resampling schemes is also presented. A battery health management system is used as a target application. A new resampling scheme for distributed implementation of particle filters has been discussed in this paper. Analysis and comparison of this new scheme with existing resampling schemes in the context for minimizing communication overhead have also been discussed. Our proposed new resampling scheme performs significantly better compared to other schemes by attempting to reduce both the communication message length as well as number total communication messages exchanged while not compromising prediction accuracy and precision. Future work will explore the effects of the new resampling scheme in the overall computational performance of the whole system as well as full implementation of the new schemes on the Sun SPOT devices. Exploring different network architectures for efficient communication is an importance future research direction as well.

  6. A Hybrid LSSVR/HMM-Based Prognostic Approach

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhijuan; Li, Qing; Liu, Xianhui; Mu, Chundi

    2013-01-01

    In a health management system, prognostics, which is an engineering discipline that predicts a system's future health, is an important aspect yet there is currently limited research in this field. In this paper, a hybrid approach for prognostics is proposed. The approach combines the least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) with the hidden Markov model (HMM). Features extracted from sensor signals are used to train HMMs, which represent different health levels. A LSSVR algorithm is used to predict the feature trends. The LSSVR training and prediction algorithms are modified by adding new data and deleting old data and the probabilities of the predicted features for each HMM are calculated based on forward or backward algorithms. Based on these probabilities, one can determine a system's future health state and estimate the remaining useful life (RUL). To evaluate the proposed approach, a test was carried out using bearing vibration signals. Simulation results show that the LSSVR/HMM approach can forecast faults long before they occur and can predict the RUL. Therefore, the LSSVR/HMM approach is very promising in the field of prognostics. PMID:23624688

  7. Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

  8. Prognostic Impact of Cytogenetic Abnormalities in Multiple Myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Jian, Yuan; Chen, Xiaolei; Zhou, Huixing; Zhu, Wanqiu; Liu, Nian; Geng, Chuanying; Chen, Wenming

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The identification of specific cytogenetic abnormalities by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (i-FISH) has become a routine procedure for prognostic stratification of multiple myeloma (MM) patients. In this study, the prognostic significance of cytogenetic abnormalities detected by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (iFISH) in 229 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients was retrospectively analyzed. Results showed that del (17p), t(4;14), and 1q21 gain were adverse predictors of progression-free survival (PFS). Patients who carried these cytogenetic abnormalities were more likely to have more adverse biological parameters and lower response rate. Multivariate analysis showed that del (17p), t(4;14), and 1q21 gain were statistically independent predictors of PFS, whereas del (17p) was also adverse predictor of overall survival. Multiple coexisting cytogenetic abnormalities also had a negative correlation with PFS. Bortezomib-based therapy could improve the rate and depth of response in patients with t(4;14) translocation and 1q21 gain. Autologous stem cell transplantation could improve, but not overcome the adverse prognostic effect of high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities. These results demonstrate that MM patients with iFISH abnormalities, especially del (17p), are more likely to have a poor prognosis. PMID:27175647

  9. Clinical Relevance of Prognostic and Predictive Molecular Markers in Gliomas.

    PubMed

    Siegal, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Sorting and grading of glial tumors by the WHO classification provide clinicians with guidance as to the predicted course of the disease and choice of treatment. Nonetheless, histologically identical tumors may have very different outcome and response to treatment. Molecular markers that carry both diagnostic and prognostic information add useful tools to traditional classification by redefining tumor subtypes within each WHO category. Therefore, molecular markers have become an integral part of tumor assessment in modern neuro-oncology and biomarker status now guides clinical decisions in some subtypes of gliomas. The routine assessment of IDH status improves histological diagnostic accuracy by differentiating diffuse glioma from reactive gliosis. It carries a favorable prognostic implication for all glial tumors and it is predictive for chemotherapeutic response in anaplastic oligodendrogliomas with codeletion of 1p/19q chromosomes. Glial tumors that contain chromosomal codeletion of 1p/19q are defined as tumors of oligodendroglial lineage and have favorable prognosis. MGMT promoter methylation is a favorable prognostic marker in astrocytic high-grade gliomas and it is predictive for chemotherapeutic response in anaplastic gliomas with wild-type IDH1/2 and in glioblastoma of the elderly. The clinical implication of other molecular markers of gliomas like mutations of EGFR and ATRX genes and BRAF fusion or point mutation is highlighted. The potential of molecular biomarker-based classification to guide future therapeutic approach is discussed and accentuated. PMID:26508407

  10. A prognostic gene expression signature in infratentorial ependymoma

    PubMed Central

    Wani, Khalida; Armstrong, Terri; Vera-Bolanos, Elizabeth; Raghunathan, Aditya; Ellison, David; Gilbertson, Richard; Vaillant, Brian; Goldman, Stewart; Packer, Roger J.; Fouladi, Maryam; Pollack, Ian; Mikkelsen, Tom; Prados, Michael; Omuro, Antonio; Soffietti, Riccardo; Ledoux, Alicia; Wilson, Charmaine; Long, Lihong; Gilbert, Mark; Aldape, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Patients with ependymoma exhibit a wide range of clinical outcomes that is currently unexplained by clinical or histological factors. Little is known regarding molecular biomarkers that could predict clinical behavior. Since recent data suggests that these tumors display biological characteristics according to their location (cerebral vs. infratentorial vs. spinal cord), rather than explore a broad spectrum of ependymoma, we focused on molecular alterations in ependymomas arising in the infratentorial compartment. Unsupervised clustering of available gene expression microarray data revealed two major subgroups of infratentorial ependymoma. Group 1 tumors over expressed genes that were associated with mesenchyme, Group 2 tumors showed no distinct gene ontologies. To assess the prognostic significance of these gene expression subgroups, real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assays were performed on genes defining the subgroups in a training set. This resulted in a 10-gene prognostic signature. Multivariate analysis showed that the 10-gene signature was an independent predictor of recurrence-free survival after adjusting for clinical factors. Evaluation of an external dataset describing subgroups of infratentorial ependymomas showed concordance of subgroup definition, including validation of the mesenchymal subclass. Importantly, the 10-gene signature was validated as a predictor of recurrence-free survival in this dataset. Taken together, the results indicate a link between clinical outcome and biologically-identified subsets of infratentorial ependymoma and offer the potential for prognostic testing to estimate clinical aggressiveness in these tumors. PMID:22322993

  11. [Prognostic and predictive factors in epithelial ovarian cancer].

    PubMed

    Boudou-Rouquette, P; Pautier, P; Morice, P; Lhommé, C

    2009-04-01

    Even if prognosis of epithelial ovarian cancer remains very bad, survival and response to treatment are variable according to the patients. Determination of new prognostic markers helps us to adapt therapeutics for each patient and is necessary for the elaboration and the interpretation of clinical research studies. Many prognostic factors related to the tumor, the patient or the treatment, have been evaluated. The goal of this work is to review these parameters. So far, the most powerful variables are volume of residual disease after cytoreductive surgery, FIGO tumor stage, histologic type and grade of differentiation. The progress and accessibility to novel technologies applied to biology will make possible in the future the assessment of new prognostic profiles-based on genetic and/or proteomic tumor characteristics. The future also relies on the identification of predictive factors of response to treatment, but force is to note that on the last hundred publications testing predictive factors (p53, HER2, Topo-2-alpha, BRCA...), none have modified today our clinical practices. PMID:19357017

  12. IDH Mutations: Genotype-Phenotype Correlation and Prognostic Impact

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiao-Wei; Ciccarino, Pietro; Rossetto, Marta; Marie, Yannick; Desestret, Virginie; Mokhtari, Karima; Sanson, Marc; Labussière, Marianne

    2014-01-01

    IDH1/2 mutation is the most frequent genomic alteration found in gliomas, affecting 40% of these tumors and is one of the earliest alterations occurring in gliomagenesis. We investigated a series of 1305 gliomas and showed that IDH mutation is almost constant in 1p19q codeleted tumors. We found that the distribution of IDH1R132H, IDH1nonR132H, and IDH2 mutations differed between astrocytic, mixed, and oligodendroglial tumors, with an overrepresentation of IDH2 mutations in oligodendroglial phenotype and an overrepresentation of IDH1nonR132H in astrocytic tumors. We stratified grade II and grade III gliomas according to the codeletion of 1p19q and IDH mutation to define three distinct prognostic subgroups: 1p19q and IDH mutated, IDH mutated—which contains mostly TP53 mutated tumors, and none of these alterations. We confirmed that IDH mutation with a hazard ratio = 0.358 is an independent prognostic factor of good outcome. These data refine current knowledge on IDH mutation prognostic impact and genotype-phenotype associations. PMID:24877111

  13. CXCL12 genetic variants as prognostic markers in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Ruiwan; Xu, Yafei; Du, Xiaojing; Liu, Na; Li, Yingqin; He, Qingmei; Tang, Linglong; Mao, Yanping; Sun, Ying; Chen, Lei; Ma, Jun

    2015-01-01

    The chemokine receptor 4/chemokine ligand 12 (CXCR4/CXCL12) axis plays an important role in tumorigenesis, metastasis, and recurrence of tumors. Its single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with patient survival in several types of cancer. However, the prognostic value of SNPs in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has not been fully investigated. This retrospective study assessed the relationships between CXCR4 rs2228014 and CXCL12 rs1801157 polymorphisms and patient outcome in 222 patients newly diagnosed with NPC. The analysis found no significant correlation between the presence of both SNPs and clinicopathological factors. However, univariate analysis showed that N classification, clinical stage, and the CXCL12 rs1801157 polymorphism were significantly associated with distant metastasis-free survival (P=0.018, 0.028, and 0.013, respectively) and progression-free survival (P=0.007, 0.046, and 0.021, respectively). After adjusting clinicopathological factors, multivariate analysis identified CXCL12 rs1801157 as an independent prognostic factor for distant metastasis-free survival and progression-free survival (hazard ratio: 3.332; 95% confidence interval: 1.597–6.949; P=0.001 and hazard ratio: 2.665 95% confidence interval: 1.387–5.119; P=0.003, respectively). Our results suggest that CXCL12 rs1801157 AA genotype might serve as a potential prognostic factor in patients with NPC. PMID:26504400

  14. Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schumann, Johann; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Kulkarni, Chetan

    2015-01-01

    With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

  15. Feline mammary adenocarcinoma: tumor size as a prognostic indicator

    PubMed Central

    Viste, Jodi R.; Myers, Sherry L.; Singh, Baljit; Simko, Elemir

    2002-01-01

    Mammary carcinomas and adenocarcinomas (MACs) are relatively common tumors in cats. The postexcisional survival period of affected cats is inversely proportional to tumor size, but the reported median survival periods for different tumor size categories is quite variable. This variability diminishes the prognostic value of reported data. In our study, cats with MACs greater than 3 cm in diameter had a 12-month median survival period, whereas those with MACs less than 3 cm in diameter had a 21-month survival period. Survival periods for cats with MACs smaller than 3 cm ranged from 3 to 54 months; therefore, tumor size alone is of limited prognostic value in cats with MACs smaller than 3 cm in diameter. In cats with MACs larger than 3 cm in diameter, tumor size appears to have much higher prognostic relevance, because this study, as well as others, have indicated that cats with MACs greater than 3 cm in diameter have a poor prognosis, with median survival periods ranging from 4 to 12 months. PMID:11802667

  16. Prognostic significance of Tspan9 in gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Tongtong; Sun, Libin; Qi, Weiwei; Pan, Fei; Lv, Jing; Guo, Jing; Zhao, Shufen; Ding, Aiping; Qiu, Wensheng

    2016-01-01

    Tetraspanins are a large superfamily of glycoproteins, which are engaged in a wide range of specific molecular interactions by forming tetraspanin-enriched microdomains. Tetraspanin 9 (Tspan9) is a previously poorly studied tetraspanin gene, which was predominantly identified as an amplified gene in serous Fallopian tube carcinoma. However, the expression and role of Tspan9 in gastric cancer have yet to be fully elucidated. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the expression and clinical significance of Tspan9 in gastric cancer. In the present study, 105 gastric cancer tissue samples and corresponding adjacent normal samples were detected for Tspan9 expression using immunohistochemistry; furthermore, the association between clinical characteristics and Tspan9 expression was also analyzed. Tspan9 expression was determined to be significantly lower in cancer samples compared with those in corresponding adjacent normal samples (P<0.001). However, its increased levels of expression in cancer samples appeared to demonstrate a poorer prognostic tendency, which is associated with deeper tumor depth (P=0.025), more nodal involvement (P=0.01), more advanced tumor/lymph node/metastasis (TNM) stages (P=0.017) and a larger tumor size (P=0.026). Additionally, multivariate analysis demonstrated that high expression of Tspan9 was an independent prognostic factor for poor overall survival (P<0.01). These results suggested that Tspan9 may be used as a potential prognostic factor in gastric cancer.

  17. Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose Ramon; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions. Electrolytic capacitors have higher failure rates than other components in electronic systems like power drives, power converters etc. Our current work focuses on developing first-principles-based degradation models for electrolytic capacitors under varying electrical and thermal stress conditions. Prognostics and health management for electronic systems aims to predict the onset of faults, study causes for system degradation, and accurately compute remaining useful life. Accelerated life test methods are often used in prognostics research as a way to model multiple causes and assess the effects of the degradation process through time. It also allows for the identification and study of different failure mechanisms and their relationships under different operating conditions. Experiments are designed for aging of the capacitors such that the degradation pattern induced by the aging can be monitored and analyzed. Experimental setups and data collection methods are presented to demonstrate this approach.

  18. Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Serum Interleukin-6 in Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Jinming; Ye, Yao; Zhang, Honghe; Szmitkowski, Maciej; Mäkinen, MJ; Li, Peiwei; Xia, Dajing; Yang, Jun; Wu, Yihua; Wu, Han

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The application of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) in the diagnosis and prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been evaluated in many studies, whereas the results were contradictive. The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate this issue. An original study was conducted to explore the diagnostic value of serum IL-6 in CRC. Pubmed, Embase, and Cochrane library databases were searched for eligible studies. For diagnostic meta-analysis, aggregate data (AD) and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses were both adopted. The sensitivity and specificity were pooled and a summary receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed. For prognostic meta-analysis, study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of IL-6 for survival were summarized. Secondary analysis of survival data was performed to synthesize the Kaplan–Meier curves. Total 17 studies (including our study) were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under curve (AUC) of serum IL-6 were 0.72 (95% CI: 0.46–0.88), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.56–0.86), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.75–0.82) in CRC diagnosis, respectively. Further, IPD meta-analysis strengthened the diagnostic value of serum IL-6 (the AUC, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.794, 0.606, and 0.839, respectively). For prognostic analysis, the high serum level of IL-6 was inversely associated with overall survival (OS) (pooled HR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.42–2.19, P < 0.001) and disease-free survival (DFS) (pooled HR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.76–5.01, P < 0.001). The synthesized Kaplan–Meier curves indicated that CRC patients with higher serum IL-6 level had a worse OS (P = 0.0027) and DFS (P < 0.001), which further support the prognostic value of serum IL-6 in CRC patients. The present study confirmed that serum IL-6 may be a potential biomarker for CRC diagnosis, and the high serum IL-6 level was associated with poor prognosis for both CRC overall survival and disease-free survival. The

  19. A prognostic model based on pretreatment platelet lymphocyte ratio for stage IE/IIE upper aerodigestive tract extranodal NK/T cell lymphoma, nasal type.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ke-feng; Chang, Bo-yang; Chen, Xiao-qin; Liu, Pan-pan; Wuxiao, Zhi-jun; Wang, Zhi-hui; Li, Su; Jiang, Wen-qi; Xia, Zhong-jun

    2014-12-01

    Patients with stage IE/IIE natural killer T (NK/T) cell lymphomas have discrepant survival outcome. This study aims to establish a prognostic model based on the pretreatment platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) specifically for localized extranodal NK/T cell lymphoma to guide the therapy. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 252 patients with early-stage upper aerodigestive tract NK/T cell lymphoma. The 5-year overall survival rate in 252 patients was 67.1%. Prognostic factors for survival were female (P = 0.025; relative risk, 0.51; 95% CI 0.28-0.92), older age (P = 0.000; relative risk, 3.34; 95% CI 1.94-5.75), stage II(P = 0.020; relative risk, 1.79; 95% CI 1.10-2.91), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level (P = 0.009; relative risk, 2.00; 95% CI 1.19-3.35), and PLR (P = 0.020; relative risk, 1.77; 95% CI 1.10-2.87). Based on these five parameters, we identified three different risk groups: group 1(106 cases, 43.4%), no or one adverse factor; group 2(85 cases, 34.8%), two factors; group 3(53 cases, 21.7%), three to five factors. Five-year overall survival was 83.3% for group 1, 62.2% for group 2, and 43.1% for group 3 (P = 0.000). Compared with International Prognostic Index and Korean Prognostic Index, the new model has a better prognostic discrimination for the patients of stage IE/IIE upper aerodigestive tract NK/T cell lymphoma. The PLR-based prognosis model is useful to stratify patients with localized extranodal NK/T cell lymphoma into different risk groups and guide the treatment modalities selection. PMID:25377661

  20. Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio, Lymphocyte/Monocyte Ratio, and Absolute Lymphocyte Count/Absolute Monocyte Count Prognostic Score in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Ching-Liang; Lu, Chieh-Sheng; Chen, Jia-Hong; Chen, Yu-Guang; Huang, Tzu-Chuan; Wu, Yi-Ying

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR), and absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score (ALC/AMC PS) have been described as the most useful prognostic tools for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively analyzed 148 Taiwanese patients with newly diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma under rituximab (R)-CHOP-like regimens from January 2001 to December 2010 at the Tri-Service General Hospital and investigated the utility of these inexpensive tools in our patients. In a univariate analysis, the NLR, LMR, and ALC/AMC PS had significant prognostic value in our DLBCL patients (NLR: 5-year progression-free survival [PFS], P = 0.001; 5-year overall survival [OS], P = 0.007. LMR: PFS, P = 0.003; OS, P = 0.05. ALC/AMC PS: PFS, P < 0.001; OS, P < 0.001). In a separate multivariate analysis, the ALC/AMC PS appeared to interact less with the other clinical factors but retained statistical significance in the survival analysis (PFS, P = 0.023; OS, P = 0.017). The akaike information criterion (AIC) analysis produced scores of 388.773 in the NLR, 387.625 in the LMR, and 372.574 in the ALC/AMC PS. The results suggested that the ALC/AMC PS appears to be more reliable than the NLR and LMR and may provide additional prognostic information when used in conjunction with the International Prognostic Index.

  1. The Practicability of a Novel Prognostic Index (PI) Model and Comparison with Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) in Stage I–III Breast Cancer Patients Undergoing Surgical Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shuaijie; Huang, Xiaojia; Yang, Lu; Xiao, Xiangsheng; Xie, Xiaoming

    2015-01-01

    Background Previous studies have indicated the prognostic value of various laboratory parameters in cancer patients. This study was to establish a prognostic index (PI) model for breast cancer patients based on the potential prognostic factors. Methods A retrospective study of 1661 breast cancer patients who underwent surgical treatment between January 2002 and December 2008 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center was conducted. Multivariate analysis (Cox regression model) was performed to determine the independent prognostic factors and a prognostic index (PI) model was devised based on these factors. Survival analyses were used to estimate the prognostic value of PI, and the discriminatory ability of PI was compared with Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) by evaluating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC). Results The mean survival time of all participants was 123.6 months. The preoperative globulin >30.0g/L, triglyceride >1.10mmol/L and fibrinogen >2.83g/L were identified as risk factors for shorter cancer-specific survival. The novel prognostic index model was established and enrolled patients were classified as low- (1168 patients, 70.3%), moderate- (410 patients, 24.7%) and high-risk groups (83 patients, 5.0%), respectively. Compared with the low-risk group, higher risks of poor clinical outcome were indicated in the moderate-risk group [Hazard ratio (HR): 1.513, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.169–1.959, p = 0.002] and high-risk group (HR: 2.481, 95%CI: 1.653–3.724, p< 0.001). Conclusions The prognostic index based on three laboratory parameters was a novel and practicable prognostic tool. It may serve as complement to help predict postoperative survival in breast cancer patients. PMID:26600129

  2. Outcome and Prognostic Factors in Endometrial Stromal Tumors: A Rare Cancer Network Study

    SciTech Connect

    Schick, Ulrike; Bolukbasi, Yasmin; Thariat, Juliette; Abdah-Bortnyak, Roxolyana; Kuten, Abraham; Igdem, Sefik; Caglar, Hale; Ozsaran, Zeynep; Loessl, Kristina; Schleicher, Ursula; Zwahlen, Daniel; Villette, Sylviane; Vees, Hansjoerg

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To provide further understanding regarding outcome and prognostic factors of endometrial stromal tumors (EST). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis was performed on the records of 59 women diagnosed with EST and treated with curative intent between 1983 and 2007 in the framework of the Rare Cancer Network. Results: Endometrial stromal sarcomas (ESS) were found in 44% and undifferentiated ESS (UES) in 49% of the cases. In 7% the grading was unclear. Of the total number of patients, 33 had Stage I, 4 Stage II, 20 Stage III, and 1 presented with Stage IVB disease. Adjuvant chemotherapy was administered to 12 patients, all with UES. External-beam radiotherapy (RT) was administered postoperatively to 48 women. The median follow-up was 41.4 months. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 96.2% and 64.8% for ESS and UES, respectively, with a corresponding 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate of 49.4% and 43.4%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, adjuvant RT was an independent prognostic factor for OS (p = 0.007) and DFS (p = 0.013). Locoregional control, DFS, and OS were significantly associated with age ({<=}60 vs. >60 years), grade (ESS vs. UES), and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage (I-II vs. III-IV). Positive lymph node staging had an impact on OS (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The prognosis of ESS differed from that of UES. Endometrial stromal sarcomas had an excellent 5-year OS, whereas the OS in UES was rather low. However, half of ESS patients had a relapse. For this reason, adjuvant treatment such as RT should be considered even in low-grade tumors. Multicenter randomized studies are still warranted to establish clear guidelines.

  3. Sarcopenia is an independent prognostic factor in male patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Nakamura, Nobuhiko; Hara, Takeshi; Shibata, Yuhei; Matsumoto, Takuro; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Ninomiya, Soranobu; Kito, Yusuke; Kitagawa, Junichi; Kanemura, Nobuhiro; Goto, Naoe; Shiraki, Makoto; Miyazaki, Tatsuhiko; Takeuchi, Tamotsu; Shimizu, Masahito; Tsurumi, Hisashi

    2015-12-01

    Sarcopenia reportedly predicts poor outcomes in elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). However, because previous studies only involved elderly patients, it is difficult to generalize these results to all patients with DLBCL. We retrospectively analyzed 207 patients with DLBCL who received the R-CHOP or R-THP-COP regimen between June 2004 and May 2014. Sarcopenia was measured by the analysis of CT images at the L3 level before treatment. The surface of muscular tissues was selected according to the CT Hounsfield unit. This value was normalized for stature in order to calculate the L3 skeletal muscle index (L3 SMI, cm(2)/m(2)). Median age at diagnosis in the 121 males and 86 females was 67 years (range, 19-86 years). The sex-specific cutoffs for the L3 SMI were determined by receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis. Sarcopenic patients were older than non-sarcopenic patients, with a median age of 70 and 65 years, respectively (p < 0.001). Other International Prognostic Index factors were not significantly different when comparing sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic patients. With a median follow-up of 50.4 months, the 3-year overall survival (OS) was 70 % in the sarcopenic group and 85 % in the non-sarcopenic group (p = 0.0260). In a subgroup analysis by gender, there was a significant difference in the OS when comparing sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic patients in males but not in females (p = 0.0003, p = 0.4440, respectively). Sarcopenia is an independent prognostic factor in male patients with DLBCL. PMID:26385388

  4. Prognostic Value of Overexpressed p16INK4a in Vulvar Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Hanyu; Wang, Si; Zhang, Zhenyu; Lou, Jiangyan

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to examine the prognostic value of overexpressed p16INK4a in vulvar cancer. Although the tumor suppressor p16INK4a has been shown to be of prognostic value in a wide variety of cancers and precancerous lesions, its role in the vulvar cancer is still unclear. Methods All publications in English language on the association between p16INK4a and clinicopathological features of vulvar cancer were searched from Pubmed, Embase, and Web of Science, and those in Chinese language were identified manually and online from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Strict inclusion and exclusion criteria were followed. Odds ratios(ORs) or risk ratios(RRs) with 95% confidence intervals(CIs) were pooled to assess the strength of association. Publication bias was estimated using funnel plots and the Egger’s regression test. Results A total of 17 studies with 2309 patients were included. The p16INK4a overexpression was found to correlate significantly with the lower International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage(I+II vs III+IV; OR = 0.60,95%CI:0.41–0.86,P = 0.006),negative lymph node metastasis(negative vs positive; OR = 0.61,95%CI:0.39–0.95,P = 0.029),patient’s age<55(OR = 0.54,95%CI:0.31–0.96,P = 0.034),human papillomavirus–positive status(OR = 0.01,95%CI:0.00–0.11,P<0.001),and higher overall survival(RR = 0.53,95%CI = 0.35–0.80,P = 0.003). Conclusion The p16INK4a might be associated with a higher survival and indicates better prognosis of vulvar cancer. PMID:27031618

  5. Prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score in metastatic colorectal cancer in the era of anti-EGFR therapies.

    PubMed

    Dréanic, Johann; Maillet, Marianne; Dhooge, Marion; Mir, Olivier; Brezault, Catherine; Goldwasser, François; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2013-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), combination of C-reactive protein and albumin, has proven its prognostic value in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients receiving conventional cytotoxic therapy. More recently, anti-EGFR therapies have been validated in mCRC and roll forward the patients' overall survival (OS). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of the GPS in patients receiving anti-EGFR therapy in addition to conventional chemotherapy. From January 2007 to February 2012, consecutive mCRC patients who received 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy plus cetuximab were included in the present analysis. Patients were eligible for the study if they met the following criteria: advanced pathologically proven MCRC, age >18 years, adequate renal function (creatinine clearance >40 ml/min), C-reactive protein and albumin and performance status evaluation before treatment initiation. A total of 49 patients received cetuximab plus 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy (colon, n = 34; rectum, n = 15) and were treated with a median follow-up of 35 months (16.5-74.7). Median age was 48 years old. In addition to cetuximab, patients received oxaliplatin- (n = 34, 60%) or irinotecan (n = 15, 30%)-based chemotherapy. At time of diagnosis, 55, 29 and 16% of patients had a GPS of 0 (n = 27), 1 (n = 14) and 2 (n = 8), respectively. Fifty-five, 29 and 14 % of patients add one, two or ≥3 metastatic sites, respectively. Considering two groups (GPS = 0 and GPS ≥1), median progression-free survivals were significantly different (p = 0.0084). Median OS in the GPS 0, 1 and 2 groups were 38.2, 14 and 12.1 months, respectively (p = 0.0093). The results of the present study confirm that the GPS is still a simple and effective prognostic factor in the era of cetuximab therapy in mCRC patients. PMID:23839775

  6. The predictive and prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score in metastatic colorectal carcinoma patients receiving bevacizumab.

    PubMed

    Maillet, Marianne; Dréanic, Johann; Dhooge, Marion; Mir, Olivier; Brezault, Catherine; Goldwasser, François; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2014-11-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), based on C-reactive protein and albumin levels, has shown its prognostic value in metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) patients receiving conventional cytotoxic therapy. Bevacizumab, a monoclonal antibody to vascular epidermal growth factor, improves the overall survival in mCRC. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of GPS in mCRC patients receiving antivascular epidermal growth factor therapy. From August 2005 to August 2012, consecutive patients with mCRC who received chemotherapy plus bevacizumab were eligible for the present analysis. The clinical stage, C-reactive protein, albumin and the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were recorded at the time of initiation of bevacizumab. Patients received 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy plus bevacizumab in accordance with the digestive oncology multidisciplinary staff proposal and in line with the French recommendations for the treatment of mCRC. Eighty patients were eligible (colon n = 59, rectum n = 21), with a median follow-up of 14 months (range 1-58 months). Chemotherapy given with bevacizumab and 5-fluorouracil was oxaliplatin (n = 41, 51%) or irinotecan (n = 27, 34%). At baseline, 56, 31 and 13% of patients had a GPS of 0 (n = 45), 1 (n = 25) and 2 (n = 10), respectively. The median progression-free survival in these groups was 10.1, 6.5 and 5.6 months (P = 0.16), respectively. The median overall survival was 20.1, 11.4 and 6.5 months, respectively (P = 0.004). Our study confirmed the prognostic value of GPS in mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab. Given the poor survival observed in patients with an GPS of 2, studies dedicated to these patients could identify optimal treatment modalities. PMID:24858536

  7. Prognostication in eye cancer: the latest tumor, node, metastasis classification and beyond

    PubMed Central

    Kivelä, T; Kujala, E

    2013-01-01

    The tumour, node, metastasis (TNM) classification is a universal cancer staging system, which has been used for five decades. The current seventh edition became effective in 2010 and covers six ophthalmic sites: eyelids, conjunctiva, uvea, retina, orbit, and lacrimal gland; and five cancer types: carcinoma, sarcoma, melanoma, retinoblastoma, and lymphoma. The TNM categories are based on the anatomic extent of the primary tumour (T), regional lymph node metastases (N), and systemic metastases (M). The T categories of ophthalmic cancers are based on the size of the primary tumour and any invasion of periocular structures. The anatomic category is used to determine the TNM stage that correlates with survival. Such staging is currently implemented only for carcinoma of the eyelid and melanoma of the uvea. The classification of ciliary body and choroidal melanoma is the only one based on clinical evidence so far: a database of 7369 patients analysed by the European Ophthalmic Oncology Group. It spans a prognosis from 96% 5-year survival for stage I to 97% 5-year mortality for stage IV. The most accurate criterion for prognostication in uveal melanoma is, however, analysis of chromosomal alterations and gene expression. When such data are available, the TNM stage may be used for further stratification. Prognosis in retinoblastoma is frequently assigned by using an international classification, which predicts conservation of the eye and vision, and an international staging separate from the TNM system, which predicts survival. The TNM cancer staging manual is a useful tool for all ophthalmologists managing eye cancer. PMID:23258307

  8. An International Prognostic Study, Based on an Acquisition Model, of Degree Philosophiae Doctor (Ph.D.).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Noble, Keith Allan

    This thesis documents an exploratory study of the degree Philosophiae Doctor (Ph.D.). A Ph.D. acquisition model was used as the conceptual framework for the investigation. The model incorporated the three fundamental components of the degree (lengthy study, original research, thesis preparation), which were determined from the historical and…

  9. Review and Analysis of Algorithmic Approaches Developed for Prognostics on CMAPSS Dataset

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ramasso, Emannuel; Saxena, Abhinav

    2014-01-01

    Benchmarking of prognostic algorithms has been challenging due to limited availability of common datasets suitable for prognostics. In an attempt to alleviate this problem several benchmarking datasets have been collected by NASA's prognostic center of excellence and made available to the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) community to allow evaluation and comparison of prognostics algorithms. Among those datasets are five C-MAPSS datasets that have been extremely popular due to their unique characteristics making them suitable for prognostics. The C-MAPSS datasets pose several challenges that have been tackled by different methods in the PHM literature. In particular, management of high variability due to sensor noise, effects of operating conditions, and presence of multiple simultaneous fault modes are some factors that have great impact on the generalization capabilities of prognostics algorithms. More than 70 publications have used the C-MAPSS datasets for developing data-driven prognostic algorithms. The C-MAPSS datasets are also shown to be well-suited for development of new machine learning and pattern recognition tools for several key preprocessing steps such as feature extraction and selection, failure mode assessment, operating conditions assessment, health status estimation, uncertainty management, and prognostics performance evaluation. This paper summarizes a comprehensive literature review of publications using C-MAPSS datasets and provides guidelines and references to further usage of these datasets in a manner that allows clear and consistent comparison between different approaches.

  10. A consensus prognostic gene expression classifier for ER positive breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Teschendorff, Andrew E; Naderi, Ali; Barbosa-Morais, Nuno L; Pinder, Sarah E; Ellis, Ian O; Aparicio, Sam; Brenton, James D; Caldas, Carlos

    2006-01-01

    Background A consensus prognostic gene expression classifier is still elusive in heterogeneous diseases such as breast cancer. Results Here we perform a combined analysis of three major breast cancer microarray data sets to hone in on a universally valid prognostic molecular classifier in estrogen receptor (ER) positive tumors. Using a recently developed robust measure of prognostic separation, we further validate the prognostic classifier in three external independent cohorts, confirming the validity of our molecular classifier in a total of 877 ER positive samples. Furthermore, we find that molecular classifiers may not outperform classical prognostic indices but that they can be used in hybrid molecular-pathological classification schemes to improve prognostic separation. Conclusion The prognostic molecular classifier presented here is the first to be valid in over 877 ER positive breast cancer samples and across three different microarray platforms. Larger multi-institutional studies will be needed to fully determine the added prognostic value of molecular classifiers when combined with standard prognostic factors. PMID:17076897

  11. Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Galvan, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  12. CLIF–SOFA score and SIRS are independent prognostic factors in patients with hepatic encephalopathy due to alcoholic liver cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Jin Hee; Park, In Sung; Kim, Dong Hoon; Kim, Seong Chun; Kang, Changwoo; Lee, Soo Hoon; Kim, Tae Yun; Lee, Sang Bong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a complication associated with worst prognosis in decompensated liver cirrhosis (LC) patients. Previous studies have identified prognostic factors for HE, and recent studies reported an association between systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and liver disease. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day mortality in alcoholic LC patients with HE who visited the emergency department (ED). This was a retrospective study of alcoholic LC patients with HE from January 1, 2010, to April 30, 2015. The baseline characteristics, complications of portal hypertension, laboratory values, Child–Pugh class, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF–SOFA) score, and SIRS criteria were assessed. The presence of 2 or more SIRS criteria was considered SIRS. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and prognostic factors for patients with HE visiting the ED. In total, 105 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed. Overall, the 30-day mortality rate was 6.7% (7 patients). Significant variables were hepatorenal syndrome, international normalized ratio, white blood cell count, total bilirubin level, MELD score CLIF–SOFA score, and SIRS in univariate analysis. CLIF–SOFA score and SIRS were the significant factors in the multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 5.56, 15.98; 95% confidence interval 1.18–26.18, 1.58–161.37; P = 0.03, P = 0.02). The mortality rates differed according to the CLIF–SOFA score (P < 0.01). The CLIF–SOFA score and SIRS in alcoholic LC patients with HE visiting the ED are independent predictors of 30-day mortality. PMID:27367990

  13. Peripheral blood CD4/CD19 cell ratio is an independent prognostic factor in classical Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Gaudio, Francesco; Perrone, Tommasina; Mestice, Anna; Curci, Paola; Giordano, Annamaria; Delia, Mario; Pastore, Domenico; Specchia, Giorgina

    2014-07-01

    Classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) is characterized by the presence of tumoral cells in a rich background of T and B cells, macrophages and other inflammatory cells. The contribution of these non-tumoral cells to the pathogenesis of HL is still poorly understood. In our study we evaluated the prognostic significance of peripheral blood B, T and natural killer (NK) cells at diagnosis in 118 immunocompetent patients with cHL treated at our institution between January 2006 and December 2010. Fifty-four (46%) were male and 64 (54%) female. Median age at diagnosis was 33 years (range 15-82), and 71 patients (60%) presented an advanced stage (IIB-IV), 54 (46%) had bulky disease and 55 (47%) presented B symptoms. At the end of treatment, 94 patients (80%) had a complete response (CR) and 24 (20%) had a partial response. After a median follow-up of 54 months, 18 patients (15%) had relapsed. The variables that had a negative impact on progression-free survival (PFS) at univariate analysis were advanced stage, bone marrow involvement, International Prognostic Score (IPS) ≥ 3, positive interim positron emission tomography (int-PET), NK cells < 200/μL, CD19 cells < 85/μL, CD3/CD19 ratio ≥ 13 and CD4/CD19 ratio ≥ 10. At multivariate analysis, advanced stage, positive int-PET and CD4/CD19 ratio ≥ 10 were independent prognostic factors of PFS. New biological markers could be predictive of the response to treatment and survival in cHL. A CD4/CD19 ratio ≥ 10 seems to be associated with a worse outcome. PMID:24164533

  14. Differential prognostic effect of IDH1 versus IDH2 mutations in myelodysplastic syndromes: a Mayo Clinic study of 277 patients.

    PubMed

    Patnaik, M M; Hanson, C A; Hodnefield, J M; Lasho, T L; Finke, C M; Knudson, R A; Ketterling, R P; Pardanani, A; Tefferi, A

    2012-01-01

    Unlike the case with acute myeloid leukemia, there is limited information on the prognostic impact of isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutations in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). In the current study of 277 patients with MDS, IDH mutations were detected in 34 (12%) cases: 26 IDH2 (all R140Q) and 8 IDH1 (6 R132S and 2 R132C). Mutational frequency was 4% (2 of 56) in refractory anemia with ring sideroblasts, 12% (16 of 130) in refractory cytopenia with multilineage dysplasia, 14% (2 of 14) in MDS-unclassifiable, 14% (6 of 42) in refractory anemia with excess blasts (RAEB)-1 and 23% (8 of 35) in RAEB-2. Normal karyotype was noted in all but one IDH1-mutated cases and 13 IDH2-mutated cases. Multivariable analysis identified presence of mutant IDH1 (P=0.0004; hazard ration 4.0, 95% confidence interval 1.9-8.8), revised International Prognostic Scoring System risk category (P<0.0001), and red cell transfusion need (P=0.002) as independent predictors of inferior survival. In a similar multivariable analysis, mutant IDH1 was the only variable associated with shortened leukemia-free survival (P=0.001; hazard ration 7.0, 95% confidence interval 2.3-20.8). The presence of IDH2R140Q did not affect the overall (P=0.54) or leukemia-free (P=0.81) survival. The current study suggests a powerful adverse prognostic effect for mutant IDH1 in MDS. PMID:22033490

  15. Prognostic performance of clinical indices and model scorings for acute-on-chronic liver failure: A study of 164 patients

    PubMed Central

    ZHANG, QIANQIAN; GUO, XIAOLIN; ZHAO, SHIXING; PANG, XIAOLI; WANG, YANG; ZHANG, YUJIAO; CHI, BAORONG

    2016-01-01

    The present study aimed to analyze the prognostic factors of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), with the perspective of an improved selection of optimal therapeutic schemes. A retrospective analysis was used to study 164 patients with ACLF hospitalized between 2010 and 2014 in a single center. Patients were divided into favorable and unfavorable groups, according to the treatment outcomes. General characteristics and clinical manifestations were analyzed to determine whether they would affect the prognosis of the patients with ACLF, with a particular focus on the scoring systems Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD with incorporation of sodium (MELD-Na), MELD and serum sodium ratio (MESO) and integrated MELD (iMELD). Hepatitis B virus infection was the predominant cause of ACLF, accounting for 88 cases (53.7%). Age, prothrombin time, thrombin time, international normalized ratio (INR), prothrombin activity, serum sodium, albumin, total bilirubin, serum creatinine, platelets, fasting blood sugar, infections, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and electrolyte disorder were revealed to be associated with prognosis. Age, serum sodium, INR, HRS, and infection were independent prognostic risk factors, as determined by multivariate analysis. Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, MESO and iMELD scoring systems all demonstrated adequate predictive values, with MELD-Na as the most effective scoring system. In conclusion, age, hyponatremia, INR, HRS and bacterial or fungal infections were reported to be independent prognostic risk factors for ACLF. Among the various liver function scoring systems, MELD-Na was the most accurate in predicting the prognosis of ACLF. PMID:27073448

  16. Evaluation of outcome and prognostic factors in 739 patients with uterine cervix carcinoma: a single institution experience

    PubMed Central

    Yöney, Adnan; Teke, Memik; Adanaş, Gültekin; Urakçı, Zuhat; Türkcü, Gül; Eren, Bekir; İnal, Ali; Ünsal, Mustafa

    2015-01-01

    Aim of the study The aim of this retrospective chart review was to determine the long-term outcomes and identify prognostic factors that impact the survival of patients with cervical cancer. Material and methods A retrospective chart review of 739 patients with International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage I–IV cervical cancer treated with surgery, radiation or chemoradiation was performed. Patient charts were evaluated in terms of demographics, clinical outcomes, and survival. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival were compared with the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was performed with a Cox proportional hazards model to determine the estimated hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each prognostic factor. Results The Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that pelvic nodal metastasis (p = 0.018), parametrial invasion (p = 0.015), and presence of disease in the surgical margin (p = 0.011) were all independent prognostic factors for OS. The 5-year OS rate of patients with negative pelvic lymph nodes was 67.1%, which was higher than the rate for those with positive nodes at 49.0% (p < 0.05). The 5-year OS rate was 54.3% for patients with metastasis to the parametrium, 79.2% with a cancer-free parametrium, 60.9% with a cancer-positive surgical margin, 85.4% with a cancer-negative surgical margin, and 64.3% with a 1–3 mm close surgical margin (p < 0.05). Conclusions Assessing pelvic lymph nodes, the parametrium, and surgical margins is important for survival and may aid in better identifying patients who would derive greater benefits from receiving adjuvant therapies and more aggressive treatments. PMID:26034391

  17. Prognostic factors on periapical surgery: A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Serrano-Giménez, Mireia; Sánchez-Torres, Alba

    2015-01-01

    Background Analyze the most important prognostic factors when performing periapical surgery and compare the success rates of distinct authors. Introduction Periapical surgery is an approach to treat non-healing periapical lesions and it should be viewed as an extension of endodontic treatment and not as a separate entity. Material and Methods A search of articles published in Cochrane, PubMed (MEDLINE) and Scopus was conducted with the key words “prognostic factors”, “prognosis”, “periapical surgery”, “endodontic surgery” and “surgical endodontic treatment”. The inclusion criteria were articles including at least 10 patients, published in English, for the last 10 years. The exclusion criteria were nonhuman studies and case reports. Results 33 articles were selected from 321 initially found. Ten articles from 33 were excluded and finally the systematic review included 23 articles: 1 metaanalysis, 1 systematic review, 2 randomized clinical trials, 6 reviews, 12 prospective studies and 1 retrospective study. They were stratified according to their level of scientific evidence using the SORT criteria. Conclusions Factors associated with a better outcome of periapical surgery are patients ≤45 years old, upper anterior or premolar teeth, ≤10 sized lesions, non cystic lesions, absence of preoperative signs and symptoms, lesions without periodontal involvement, teeth with an adequate root-filling length, MTA as root-end filling material, uniradicular teeth, absence of perforating lesions, apical resection < 3 mm, teeth not associated to an oroantral fistula and teeth with only one periapical surgery. Key words:Prognostic factors, prognosis, periapical surgery, endodontic surgery and surgical endodontic treatment. PMID:26449431

  18. Prognostic Factors for Distress After Genetic Testing for Hereditary Cancer.

    PubMed

    Voorwinden, Jan S; Jaspers, Jan P C

    2016-06-01

    The psychological impact of an unfavorable genetic test result for counselees at risk for hereditary cancer seems to be limited: only 10-20 % of counselees have psychological problems after testing positive for a known familial mutation. The objective of this study was to find prognostic factors that can predict which counselees are most likely to develop psychological problems after presymptomatic genetic testing. Counselees with a 50 % risk of BRCA1/2 or Lynch syndrome completed questionnaires at three time-points: after receiving a written invitation for a genetic counseling intake (T1), 2-3 days after receiving their DNA test result (T2), and 4-6 weeks later (T3). The psychological impact of the genetic test result was examined shortly and 4-6 weeks after learning their test result. Subsequently, the influence of various potentially prognostic factors on psychological impact were examined in the whole group. Data from 165 counselees were analyzed. Counselees with an unfavorable outcome did not have more emotional distress, but showed significantly more cancer worries 4-6 weeks after learning their test result. Prognostic factors for cancer worries after genetic testing were pre-existing cancer worries, being single, a high risk perception of getting cancer, and an unfavorable test result. Emotional distress was best predicted by pre-existing cancer worries and pre-existing emotional distress. The psychological impact of an unfavorable genetic test result appears considerable if it is measured as "worries about cancer." Genetic counselors should provide additional guidance to counselees with many cancer worries, emotional distress, a high risk perception or a weak social network. PMID:26475052

  19. Prognostic factors in early-stage ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Tognon, Germana; Carnazza, Mario; Ragnoli, Monica; Calza, Stefano; Ferrari, Federico; Gambino, Angela; Zizioli, Valentina; Notaro, Sara; Sostegni, Benedetta; Sartori, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify the main prognostic factors in patients with early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer. Data were extracted from 222 patients with initial stage (I-IIA) invasive epithelial ovarian cancer treated with primary surgery followed or not followed by adjuvant therapy, from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2008, at the Division of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Spedali Civili, Brescia, Italy; the median follow-up was 79 months (SD ± 35,945, range 20-250 months). The negative prognostic factors that were statistically significant (p<0.050) in univariate analysis were grade 2, 3, and X (clear cell in our study); stage IB, IC, IIA; positive peritoneal cytology, age equal to/greater than 54; dense adhesions; capsule rupture (pre-operative or intra-operative) and endometrioid histotype (only for disease-free survival (DFS)). Positive cytology was strongly associated with peritoneal relapses, while adhesions were associated with pelvic relapses. A positive prognosis was associated with the mucinous histotype. Conservative treatment had been carried out in 52% of patients under 40 years of age, and we detected only two relapses and three completions of surgery after a few weeks among 31 women in total. Our study indicated a possible execution in patients with patients with cancer stage IA G1-G2 (p=0.030) or IC G1 (p=0.050), provided well staged. Adjuvant chemotherapy improved the survival of cancers that were not IA G1. The positive prognostic role of taxanes must be emphasised, when used in combination with platino. PMID:23781280

  20. Notch Signaling Components: Diverging Prognostic Indicators in Lung Adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhi-Yan; Wu, Tao; Li, Qing; Wang, Min-Cong; Jing, Li; Ruan, Zhi-Ping; Yao, Yu; Nan, Ke-Jun; Guo, Hui

    2016-05-01

    Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a lethal and aggressive malignancy. Currently, the identities of prognostic and predictive makers of NSCLC have not been fully established. Dysregulated Notch signaling has been implicated in many human malignancies, including NSCLC. However, the prognostic value of measuring Notch signaling and the utility of developing Notch-targeted therapies in NSCLC remain inconclusive. The present study investigated the association of individual Notch receptor and ligand levels with lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) prognosis using the Kaplan-Meier plotte database. This online database encompasses 2437 lung cancer samples. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. The results showed that higher Notch1, Notch2, JAG1, and DLL1 mRNA expression predicted better overall survival (OS) in lung ADC, but showed no significance in SCC patients. Elevated Notch3, JAG2, and DLL3 mRNA expression was associated with poor OS of ADC patients, but not in SCC patients. There was no association between Notch4 and OS in either lung ADC or SCC patients. In conclusion, the set of Notch1, Notch2, JAG1, DLL1 and that of Notch3, JAG2, DLL3 played opposing prognostic roles in lung ADC patients. Neither set of Notch receptors and ligands was indicative of lung SCC prognosis. Notch signaling could serve as promising marker to predict outcomes in lung ADC patients. The distinct features of lung cancer subtypes and Notch components should be considered when developing future Notch-targeted therapies. PMID:27196489

  1. Prognostic factors of choroidal melanoma in Slovenia, 1986–2008

    PubMed Central

    Budihna, Marjan; Drnovsek-Olup, Brigita; Andrejcic, Katrina Novak; Zupancic, Irena Brovet; Pahor, Dusica

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Choroidal melanoma is the most common primary malignancy of the eye, which frequently metastasizes. The Cancer Registry of Slovenia reported the incidence of choroid melanoma from 1983 to 2009 as stable, at 7.8 cases/million for men and 7.4/million for women. The aim of the retrospective study was to determinate the prognostic factors of survival for choroidal melanoma patients in Slovenia. Patients and methods From January 1986 to December 2008 we treated 288 patients with malignant choroidal melanoma; 127 patients were treated by brachytherapy with beta rays emitting ruthenium-106 applicators; 161 patients were treated by enucleation. Results Patients with tumours thickness < 7.2 mm and base diameter < 16 mm were treated by brachytherapy and had 5- and 10-year overall mortality 13% and 32%, respectively. In enucleated patients, 5- and 10-year mortality was higher, 46% and 69%, respectively, because their tumours were larger. Thirty patients treated by brachytherapy developed local recurrence. Twenty five of 127 patients treated by brachytherapy and 86 of 161 enucleated patients developed distant metastases. Patients of age ≥ 60 years had significantly lower survival in both treatment modalities. For patients treated by brachytherapy the diameter of the tumour base and treatment time were independent prognostic factors for overall survival, for patients treated by enucleation age and histological type of tumour were independent prognosticators. In first few years after either of treatments, the melanoma specific annual mortality rate increased, especially in older patients, and then slowly decreased. Conclusions It seems that particularly younger patients with early tumours can be cured, whereby preference should be given to eyesight preserving brachytherapy over enucleation. PMID:27069456

  2. Prognostic factors for stereopsis in refractive accommodative esotropia

    PubMed Central

    Guclu, Hande; Gurlu, Vuslat Pelitli; Ozal, Sadik Altan; Ozkurt, Zeynep Gursel

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To determine the prognostic factors affecting stereoacuity in patients with refractive accommodative esotropia (RAE) according to the results of long follow- up period. Methods: We reviewed the charts of 70 patients with RAE between the years 1985-2014. Patients were classified into three groups. G-1: Stereoacuity score 40 second/arc. G-2: Stereoacuity score >40 second/arc (50-3000). G-3: No binocular vision. Initiation age of RAE, duration of deviation, refractive error, amblyopia, amblyopia treatment, anisometropia, visual acuity, family history, angle of deviation for distance and near at each group and the prognostic factors affecting stereoacuity were analyzed. Results: The mean initiation age of RAE was 2.7±1.5 years, the mean age at first visit was 6.4±4.2 years. The mean follow up time was 7.3±4.4 years. Seven patients had 40 second/arc, 48 patients had 50 to 3000 second/arc stereoacuity, 15 patients had no binocular vision. Mean deviation for near was statistically higher in group 2 and 3. Visual acuity levels were higher in group 1 and 2 and was statistically significant. Low visual acuity (p=0.001, 0.008), higher angle of deviation at near (p=0.01), increased duration of deviation (p=0.01), presence of amblyopia (p=0.001) and irregularity of amblyopia treatment (p=0.01) were significantly related with poor stereoacuity. Conclusion: According to the prognostic factors low stereoacuity was mostly related with amblyopia as a result the late presentation of the patients in seeking care. Appropriate treatment as full refractive correction and amblyopia treatment during the RAE is important for development of good stereopsis. Also angle of deviation at near and duration of deviation can be a useful predictor for poor stereoacuity levels. PMID:26430408

  3. Algorithm development for Prognostics and Health Management (PHM).

    SciTech Connect

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Campbell, James E.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Lowder, Kelly S.

    2003-10-01

    This report summarizes the results of a three-year LDRD project on prognostics and health management. System failure over some future time interval (an alternative definition is the capability to predict the remaining useful life of a system). Prognostics are integrated with health monitoring (through inspections, sensors, etc.) to provide an overall PHM capability that optimizes maintenance actions and results in higher availability at a lower cost. Our goal in this research was to develop PHM tools that could be applied to a wide variety of equipment (repairable, non-repairable, manufacturing, weapons, battlefield equipment, etc.) and require minimal customization to move from one system to the next. Thus, our approach was to develop a toolkit of reusable software objects/components and architecture for their use. We have developed two software tools: an Evidence Engine and a Consequence Engine. The Evidence Engine integrates information from a variety of sources in order to take into account all the evidence that impacts a prognosis for system health. The Evidence Engine has the capability for feature extraction, trend detection, information fusion through Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), and estimation of remaining useful life. The Consequence Engine involves algorithms to analyze the consequences of various maintenance actions. The Consequence Engine takes as input a maintenance and use schedule, spares information, and time-to-failure data on components, then generates maintenance and failure events, and evaluates performance measures such as equipment availability, mission capable rate, time to failure, and cost. This report summarizes the capabilities we have developed, describes the approach and architecture of the two engines, and provides examples of their use. 'Prognostics' refers to the capability to predict the probability of

  4. Prognostic comparison between mucinous and nonmucinous adenocarcinoma in colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Park, Jong Seob; Huh, Jung Wook; Park, Yoon Ah; Cho, Yong Beom; Yun, Seong Hyeon; Kim, Hee Cheol; Lee, Woo Yong; Chun, Ho-Kyung

    2015-04-01

    Mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) is a histological subtype of colorectal cancer. The oncologic behavior of MAC differs from nonmucinous adenocarcinoma (non-MAC). Our aim in this study was to characterize patients with colorectal MAC through evaluation of a large, institutional-based cohort with long-term follow-up. A total of 6475 patients with stages I to III colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery were enrolled from January 2000 to December 2010. Prognostic comparison between MAC (n = 274, 4.2%) and non-MAC was performed. The median follow-up period was 48.0 months. Patients with MAC were younger than those without MAC (P = 0.012) and had larger tumor size (P < 0.001), higher preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (P < 0.001), higher pathologic T stage (P < 0.001), more right-sided colon cancer (49.3%, P < 0.001), and more frequent high-frequency microsatellite instability (10.2%, P < 0.001). Five-year disease-free survival (DFS) was 76.5% in the MAC group and 83.2% in the non-MAC group (P = 0.008), and 5-year overall survival was 81.4% versus 87.4%, respectively (P = 0.005). Mucinous histology (MAC vs non-MAC) in the entire cohort was not an independent prognostic factor of DFS but had a statistical tendency (P = 0.071). In subgroup analysis of colon cancer without rectal cancer, mucinous histology was an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.026). MAC was found at more advanced stage, located mainly at the right side and was an independent factor of survival in colon cancer. Because of the unique biological behavior of MAC, patients with MAC require special consideration during follow-up. PMID:25881840

  5. Prognostic indicators for failed nonsurgical reduction of intussusception

    PubMed Central

    Khorana, Jiraporn; Singhavejsakul, Jesda; Ukarapol, Nuthapong; Laohapensang, Mongkol; Siriwongmongkol, Jakraphan; Patumanond, Jayanton

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To identify the risk factors for failure of nonsurgical reduction of intussusception. Methods Data from intussusception patients who were treated with nonsurgical reduction in Chiang Mai University Hospital and Siriraj Hospital between January 2006 and December 2012 were collected. Patients aged 0–15 years and without contraindications (peritonitis, abdominal X-ray signs of perforation, and/or hemodynamic instability) were included for nonsurgical reduction. The success and failure groups were divided according to the results of the reduction. Prognostic indicators for failed reduction were identified by using generalized linear model for exponential risk regression. The risk ratio (RR) was used to report each factor. Results One hundred and ninety cases of intussusception were enrolled. Twenty cases were excluded due to contraindications. A total of 170 cases of intussusception were included for the final analysis. The significant risk factors for reduction failure clustered by an age of 3 years were weight <12 kg (RR =1.48, P=0.004), symptom duration >3 days (RR =1.26, P<0.001), vomiting (RR =1.63, P<0.001), rectal bleeding (RR =1.50, P<0.001), abdominal distension (RR =1.60, P=0.003), temperature >37.8°C (RR =1.51, P<0.001), palpable abdominal mass (RR =1.26, P<0.001), location of mass (left over right side) (RR =1.48, P<0.001), poor prognostic signs on ultrasound scans (RR =1.35, P<0.001), and method of reduction (hydrostatic over pneumatic) (RR =1.34, P=0.023). The prediction ability of this model was 82.21% as assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusion The identified prognostic factors for the nonsurgical reduction failure may help to predict the reduction outcome and provide information to the parents. PMID:27563245

  6. Prognostic value of microalbuminuria during antihypertensive treatment in essential hypertension.

    PubMed

    Pascual, Jose Maria; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, Jose Antonio; Garcia-Escrich, Miguel; Gonzalez, Carmen; Redon, Josep

    2014-12-01

    Whether changes over time of urinary albumin excretion have prognostic value is a matter of discussion. The objective was to assess the prognostic value of changes in urinary albumin excretion over time in cardiovascular risk during antihypertensive treatment. Follow-up study of 2835 hypertensives in the absence of previous cardiovascular disease (mean age 55 years, 47% men, BP 138/80 mm Hg, 19.1% diabetics, and calibrated systemic coronary risk estimation 5 or >10.6%). Usual-care of antihypertensive treatment was implemented to maintain blood pressure<140/90 mm Hg. Urinary albumin excretion was assessed yearly, and the values were expressed as the creatinine ratio. Incidence of cardiovascular events, fatal and nonfatal, was recorded during the follow-up. During a median follow-up of 4.7 years (17 028 patients-year), 294 fatal and first nonfatal cardiovascular events were recorded (1.73 CVD per 100 patients/year). Independently of blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, level of cardiovascular risk, and antihypertensive treatment, microalbuminuria at baseline and at any time during the follow-up resulted in higher risk for events, hazard ratio (HR) 1.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.79) and HR 1.49 (95% CI, 1.14-1.94), respectively. Likewise, development of microalbuminuria (HR 1.60; 95% CI, 1.04-2.46) or persistence from the beginning (1.53; 95% CI, 1.13-2.06) had a significantly higher rate of events than if remained normoalbuminuric (HR 1) or regress to normoalbuminuria (HR 1.37; 95% CI, 0.92-2.06) with an 18%, 18%, 8%, and 11% events, respectively, P<0.001. The study supports the value of urinary albumin excretion assessment as a prognostic factor for cardiovascular risk, but also opens the way to consider it as an intermediate objective in hypertension. PMID:25245391

  7. A continuous and prognostic convection scheme based on buoyancy, PCMT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guérémy, Jean-François; Piriou, Jean-Marcel

    2016-04-01

    A new and consistent convection scheme (PCMT: Prognostic Condensates Microphysics and Transport), providing a continuous and prognostic treatment of this atmospheric process, is described. The main concept ensuring the consistency of the whole system is the buoyancy, key element of any vertical motion. The buoyancy constitutes the forcing term of the convective vertical velocity, which is then used to define the triggering condition, the mass flux, and the rates of entrainment-detrainment. The buoyancy is also used in its vertically integrated form (CAPE) to determine the closure condition. The continuous treatment of convection, from dry thermals to deep precipitating convection, is achieved with the help of a continuous formulation of the entrainment-detrainment rates (depending on the convective vertical velocity) and of the CAPE relaxation time (depending on the convective over-turning time). The convective tendencies are directly expressed in terms of condensation and transport. Finally, the convective vertical velocity and condensates are fully prognostic, the latter being treated using the same microphysics scheme as for the resolved condensates but considering the convective environment. A Single Column Model (SCM) validation of this scheme is shown, allowing detailed comparisons with observed and explicitly simulated data. Four cases covering the convective spectrum are considered: over ocean, sensitivity to environmental moisture (S. Derbyshire) non precipitating shallow convection to deep precipitating convection, trade wind shallow convection (BOMEX) and strato-cumulus (FIRE), together with an entire continental diurnal cycle of convection (ARM). The emphasis is put on the characteristics of the scheme which enable a continuous treatment of convection. Then, a 3D LAM validation is presented considering an AMMA case with both observations and a CRM simulation using the same initial and lateral conditions as for the parameterized one. Finally, global

  8. Prostate cancer: from Gleason scoring to prognostic grade grouping.

    PubMed

    Montironi, Rodolfo; Santoni, Matteo; Mazzucchelli, Roberta; Burattini, Luciano; Berardi, Rossana; Galosi, Andrea B; Cheng, Liang; Lopez-Beltran, Antonio; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Scarpelli, Marina

    2016-04-01

    The Gleason grading system was developed in the late 1960s by Dr. Donald F. Gleason. Due to changes in prostatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) detection and treatment, newer technologies to better characterize prostatic pathology, subsequently described variants of PAC and further data relating various morphologic patterns to prognosis, the application of the Gleason grading system changed substantially in surgical pathology. First in 2005 and more recently in 2014, consensus conferences were held to update PAC grading. Here, we review of the successive changes in the grading of PAC from the original system, with emphasis on the newest prognostic grade grouping. PMID:27008205

  9. Molecular Pathology: Predictive, Prognostic, and Diagnostic Markers in Lymphoid Neoplasms.

    PubMed

    Ho, Caleb; Kluk, Michael J

    2016-09-01

    Lymphoid neoplasms show great diversity in morphology, immunophenotypic profile, and postulated cells of origin, which also reflects the variety of genetic alterations within this group of tumors. This review discusses many of the currently known genetic alterations in selected mature B-cell and T-cell lymphoid neoplasms, and their significance as diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic markers. Given the rapidly increasing number of genetic alterations that have been described in this group of tumors, and that the clinical significance of many is still being studied, this is not an entirely exhaustive review of all of the genetic alterations that have been reported. PMID:27523974

  10. Prognostic Significance and Molecular Features of Colorectal Mucinous Adenocarcinomas

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Mo-Jin; Ping, Jie; Li, Yuan; Holmqvist, Annica; Adell, Gunnar; Arbman, Gunnar; Zhang, Hong; Zhou, Zong-Guang; Sun, Xiao-Feng

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Mucinous adenocarcinoma (MC) is a special histology subtype of colorectal adenocarcinoma. The survival of MC is controversial and the prognostic biomarkers of MC remain unclear. To analyze prognostic significance and molecular features of colorectal MC. This study included 755,682 and 1001 colorectal cancer (CRC) patients from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (SEER, 1973–2011), and Linköping Cancer (LC, 1972–2009) databases. We investigated independently the clinicopathological characteristics, survival, and variety of molecular features from these 2 databases. MC was found in 9.3% and 9.8% patients in SEER and LC, respectively. MC was more frequently localized in the right colon compared with nonmucinous adenocarcinoma (NMC) in both SEER (57.7% vs 37.2%, P < 0.001) and LC (46.9% vs 27.7%, P < 0.001). Colorectal MC patients had significantly worse cancer-specific survival (CSS) than NMC patients (SEER, P < 0.001; LC, P = 0.026), prominently in stage III (SEER, P < 0.001; LC, P = 0.023). The multivariate survival analysis showed that MC was independently related to poor prognosis in rectal cancer patients (SEER, hazard ratios [HR], 1.076; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.057–1.096; P < 0.001). In LC, the integrated analysis of genetic and epigenetic features showed that that strong expression of PINCH (HR, 3.954; 95% CI, 1.493–10.47; P = 0.013) and weak expression of RAD50 (HR 0.348, 95% CI, 0.106–1.192; P = 0.026) were significantly associated with poor CSS of colorectal MC patients. In conclusion, the colorectal MC patients had significantly worse CSS than NMC patients, prominently in stage III. MC was an independent prognostic factor associated with worse survival in rectal cancer patients. The PINCH and RAD50 were prognostic biomarkers for colorectal MC patients. PMID:26705231

  11. Prognostic values of aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 isoenzymes in ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Yu-mei; Zhao, Shan

    2016-01-01

    Aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) activity has been used as a functional stem cell marker to isolate cancer stem cells in different cancer types, including ovarian cancer. However, which ALDH1’s isoenzymes are contributing to ALDH1 activity in ovarian cancer remains elusive. In addition, the prognostic value of an individual ALDH1 isoenzyme in ovarian cancer is not clear. Thus, we accessed the prognostic value of ALDH1 isoenzymes in ovarian cancer patients through the “Kaplan–Meier plotter” online database, which can be used to determine the effect of the genes on ovarian cancer prognosis. We found that high mRNA expression of five ALDH1 isoenzymes, such as ALDH1A1, ALDH1A2, ALDH1A3, ALDH1B1, and ALDH1L1, was not correlated with overall survival (OS) for all 1,306 ovarian cancer patients. In addition, all five of the ALDH1 isoenzymes’ high mRNA expression was found to be uncorrelated with OS in serous cancer or endometrioid cancer patients. However, ALDH1A3’s high mRNA expression is associated with worse OS in grade II ovarian cancer patients, hazard ratio (HR) 1.53 (1.14–2.07), P=0.005. ALDH1A2’s high mRNA expression is significantly associated with worse OS in TP53 wild-type ovarian cancer patients, HR 2.86 (1.56–5.08), P=0.00036. In addition, ALDH1A3’s high mRNA expression is significantly associated with better OS in TP53 wild-type ovarian cancer patients, HR 0.56 (0.32–1.00), P=0.04. Our results indicate that although ALDH1 isoenzyme mRNA might not be a prognostic marker for overall ovarian cancer patients, some isoenzymes, such as ALDH1A2 and ALDH1A3, might be a good prognostic marker for some types of ovarian cancer patients. PMID:27110126

  12. [Determination of prognostic factors in surgical treatment of myasthenia gravis].

    PubMed

    Schnorrer, M; Hraska, V; Spalek, P; Cársky, S

    1999-05-01

    The authors evaluated, using statistical analysis, the importance of prognostic factors in patients subjected to thymectomy on account of myasthenia gravis. The results revealed a better prognosis of the disease, if the history was less than 6 months, preoperative treatment less than 1.5 years, a histological finding of thymus hyperplasia, second clinical stage according to Ossermann and the patients age below 30 years. From the statistical analysis ensues that the prognosis of myasthenia gravis is more favourable when the case-history is shorter as a result of rapid diagnosis and when preoperative treatment is reduced to a minimum. PMID:10510623

  13. International Perspectives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allen, Kenn; Habermann, Ulla; Chowdhury, Omar Faruque; Guerra, Iraida Manzanilla

    1998-01-01

    Includes "Introduction to International Perspectives" (Allen); "Volunteerism in the Welfare State: The Case of Denmark" (Habermann); "Grassroots Organizing in Bangladesh" (Chowdhury); and "Volunteerism in Latin America" (Guerra). (SK)

  14. International Curriculums.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neal, Larry L.

    This workshop presentation on international curriculums in the field of parks, recreation, leisure, cultural services, and travel/tourism comments that the literature is replete with articles addressing what the field is about, but not about curriculum issues, models, and structure. It reports an international survey of 12 college educators…

  15. Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Therapeutic Value of Circulating miRNAs in Heart Failure Patients Associated with Oxidative Stress

    PubMed Central

    Ali Sheikh, Md Sayed; Salma, Umme; Zhang, Baohai; Chen, Jimei; Zhuang, Jian; Ping, Zhu

    2016-01-01

    Heart failure is a major public health problem especially in the aging population (≥65 years old), affecting nearly 5 million Americans and 15 million European people. Effective management of heart failure (HF) depends on a correct and rapid diagnosis. Presently, BNP (brain natriuretic peptide) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) assay is generally accepted by the international community for diagnostic evaluation and risk stratification of patients with HF. However, regardless of its widespread clinical use, BNP is still encumbered by reduced specificity. As a result, diagnosis of heart failure remains challenging. Although significant improvement happened in the clinical management of HF over the last 2 decades, traditional treatments are ultimately ineffective in many patients who progress to advanced HF. Therefore, a novel diagnostic, prognostic biomarker and new therapeutic approach are required for clinical management of HF patients. Circulating miRNAs seem to be the right choice for novel noninvasive biomarkers as well as new treatment strategies for HF. In this review, we briefly discuss the diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic role of circulating miRNAs in heart failure patients. We also mentioned our own technique of extraction of RNA and detection of circulating miRNAs from human plasma and oxidative stress associated miRNAs with HF. PMID:27379177

  16. Using prognostic model-generated meteorological output in the AERMOD dispersion model: an illustrative application in Philadelphia, PA.

    PubMed

    Touma, Jawad S; Isakov, Vlad; Cimorelli, Alan J; Brode, Roger W; Anderson, Bret

    2007-05-01

    In this study, we introduce the prospect of using prognostic model-generated meteorological output as input to steady-state dispersion models by identifying possible advantages and disadvantages and by presenting a comparative analysis. Because output from prognostic meteorological models is now routinely available and is used for Eulerian and Lagrangian air quality modeling applications, we explore the possibility of using such data in lieu of traditional National Weather Service (NWS) data for dispersion models. We apply these data in an urban application where comparisons can be made between the two meteorological input data types. Using the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) air quality dispersion model, hourly and annual average concentrations of benzene are estimated for the Philadelphia, PA, area using both hourly MM5 model-generated meteorological output and meteorological data taken from the NWS site at the Philadelphia International Airport. Our intent is to stimulate a discussion of the relevant issues and inspire future work that examines many of the questions raised in this paper. PMID:17518224

  17. Leptomeningeal metastasis: survival and prognostic factors in 155 patients.

    PubMed

    Herrlinger, Ulrich; Förschler, Heike; Küker, Wilhelm; Meyermann, Richard; Bamberg, Michael; Dichgans, Johannes; Weller, Michael

    2004-08-30

    In this single-center retrospective study, 155 consecutive patients with leptomeningeal metastasis (LM) were analyzed for the prognostic role of patient- and therapy-related variables. Ten percent of the patients received radiotherapy alone, 32% had chemotherapy alone, 31% received radiochemotherapy, 17% had supportive therapy only, and 10% were not evaluable for therapy. Chemotherapy was systemic (17%), combined systemic and intrathecal (10%), or intrathecal only (35%). Clinical improvement was noted in 41% of the patients. Overall median survival time (MST) was 4.8 months. Survival varied considerably depending on the type of primary tumor in this largest published cohort of LM patients. Univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age >60 and elevated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) albumin or lactate levels were therapy-independent predictors of poor survival in the entire cohort as well as in the subgroup of patients with systemic primary tumors (n=105). The assessment of three therapy-independent parameters allows to group LM patients into groups of low, intermediate, and high risk of poor survival. Moreover, the application of systemic chemotherapy was a positive prognostic factor in patients with subarachnoid lesions detected by neuroimaging (RR 1.94, p=0.001) or with extra-CNS tumor deposits (RR 1.52, p=0.05). The results of this study suggest that systemic chemotherapy alone or in combination with other therapeutic modalities may improve outcome in patients with subarachnoid tumor cell deposits detectable by neuroimaging. PMID:15337619

  18. Survival kinase genes present prognostic significance in glioblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Varghese, Robin T.; Liang, Yanping; Guan, Ting; Franck, Christopher T.; Kelly, Deborah F.; Sheng, Zhi

    2016-01-01

    Cancer biomarkers with a strong predictive power for diagnosis/prognosis and a potential to be therapeutic targets have not yet been fully established. Here we employed a loss-of-function screen in glioblastoma (GBM), an infiltrative brain tumor with a dismal prognosis, and identified 20 survival kinase genes (SKGs). Survival analyses using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets revealed that the expression of CDCP1, CDKL5, CSNK1E, IRAK3, LATS2, PRKAA1, STK3, TBRG4, and ULK4 stratified GBM prognosis with or without temozolomide (TMZ) treatment as a covariate. For the first time, we found that GBM patients with a high level of NEK9 and PIK3CB had a greater chance of having recurrent tumors. The expression of CDCP1, IGF2R, IRAK3, LATS2, PIK3CB, ULK4, or VRK1 in primary GBM tumors was associated with recurrence-related prognosis. Notably, the level of PIK3CB in recurrent tumors was much higher than that in newly diagnosed ones. Congruent with these results, genes in the PI3K/AKT pathway showed a significantly strong correlation with recurrence rate, further highlighting the pivotal role of PIK3CB in the disease progression. Importantly, 17 SKGs together presented a novel GBM prognostic signature. SKGs identified herein are associated with recurrence rate and present prognostic significance in GBM, thereby becoming attractive therapeutic targets. PMID:26956052

  19. SEMA6A is a prognostic biomarker in glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jiaxin; Tang, Haitao; Zhao, Hong; Che, Wanli; Zhang, Lei; Liang, Peng

    2015-11-01

    Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is one of the most aggressive tumors in the central nervous system. SEMA6A, the first identified class 6 semaphorin, is contributed to regulate vascular development and adult angiogenesis. However, the function of SEMA6A in GBM is still undefined. In the present study, we investigated the expression of SEMA6A protein in 200 GBM tissues using immunohistochemistry (IHC). SEMA6A expression was associated with time to progression (P = 0.001) and mean tumor diameter (P = 0.038). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients expressing high SEMA6A protein levels had a significantly longer overall survival (OS, P = 0.013) and progression-free survival (PFS, P = 0.005) compared to those with low SEMA6A expression level. Cox multivariate regression analysis confirmed that low SEMA6A expression was an independent unfavorable prognostic factors for PFS (HR, 1.896; 95% CI, 1.147-2.768; P = 0.009) and OS (HR, 1.712; 95% CI, 1.011-2.657; P = 0.012). Furthermore, in vitro experiments showed that SEMA6A could inhibit proliferation, migration, and invasion in different glioma cell lines. In conclusion, our findings indicated that SEMA6A may be a potential prognostic biomarker in the treatment of GBM. PMID:26014517

  20. Posterior urethral valve: Prognostic factors and renal outcome

    PubMed Central

    Bhadoo, Divya; Bajpai, Minu; Panda, Shasanka Shekhar

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The aim was to study the outcome of posterior urethral valve (PUV) cases treated by stepladder protocol and the prognostic factors affecting the outcome. Materials and Methods: Hospital records of all PUV patients treated by stepladder protocol between January 1992 and December 2013 were reviewed. The studied parameters were: Age at presentation, serum creatinine, types of surgical intervention, vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) on initial voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG), renal cortical scars, plasma renin activity (PRA), and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Results: Of 396 PUV patients treated during the study period, 152 satisfied study criteria. The age at presentation ranged from 2 days to 15 years (mean 31.3 months). The mean follow-up period was 5 years (range: 2-18 years). Primary endoscopic valve ablation was the most common initial procedure. Chronic renal failure was seen in 42.7% patients at the last follow-up. Serum creatinine at presentation, initial PRA levels, initial GFR, and PRA levels at last follow-up were significant predictors of final renal outcome. Age at presentation (<1 vs. >1 year), presence/absence of VUR on initial VCUG and renal cortical scars had no significant correlation with ultimate renal function. Conclusion: Our study confirms the high prognostic significance of initial serum creatinine, PRA levels and GFR in cases with PUV. PRA also holds promise in long-term follow-up of these patients as a marker of progressive renal damage. PMID:25197189

  1. Cutaneous malignant melanoma: update on diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Abbas, Ossama; Miller, Daniel D; Bhawan, Jag

    2014-05-01

    The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma has rapidly increased in recent years in all parts of the world, and melanoma is a leading cause of cancer death. As even relatively small melanomas may have metastatic potential, accurate assessment of progression is critical. Although diagnosis of cutaneous malignant melanoma is usually based on histopathologic criteria, these criteria may at times be inadequate in differentiating melanoma from certain types of benign nevi. As for prognosis, tumor (Breslow) thickness, mitotic rate, and ulceration have been considered the most important prognostic indicators among histopathologic criteria. However, there are cases of thin primary melanomas that have ultimately developed metastases despite complete excision. Given this, an accurate assessment of melanoma progression is critical, and development of molecular biomarkers that identify high-risk melanoma in its early phase is urgently needed. Large-scale genomic profiling has identified considerable heterogeneity in melanoma and suggests subgrouping of tumors by patterns of gene expression and mutation will ultimately be essential to accurate staging. This subgrouping in turn may allow for more targeted therapy. In this review, we aim to provide an update on the most promising new biomarkers that may help in the identification and prognostication of melanoma. PMID:24803061

  2. Prognostics Health Management for Advanced Small Modular Reactor Passive Components

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coble, Jamie B.; Mitchell, Mark R.; Wootan, David W.; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Berglin, Eric J.; Bond, Leonard J.; Henager, Charles H.

    2013-10-18

    In the United States, sustainable nuclear power to promote energy security is a key national energy priority. Advanced small modular reactors (AdvSMR), which are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts using non-light-water reactor (LWR) coolants such as liquid metal, helium, or liquid salt may provide a longer-term alternative to more conventional LWR-based concepts. The economics of AdvSMRs will be impacted by the reduced economy-of-scale savings when compared to traditional LWRs and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs are expected to be dominated by operations and maintenance costs. Therefore, achieving the full benefits of AdvSMR deployment requires a new paradigm for plant design and management. In this context, prognostic health management of passive components in AdvSMRs can play a key role in enabling the economic deployment of AdvSMRs. In this paper, the background of AdvSMRs is discussed from which requirements for PHM systems are derived. The particle filter technique is proposed as a prognostics framework for AdvSMR passive components and the suitability of the particle filter technique is illustrated by using it to forecast thermal creep degradation using a physics-of-failure model and based on a combination of types of measurements conceived for passive AdvSMR components.

  3. Surgical outcome and prognostic factors in patients with gallbladder carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Eun Kyung; Kim, Kun Kuk; Lee, Jung Nam; Lee, Woon Kee; Chung, Min; Kim, Yeon Suk

    2014-01-01

    Backgrounds/Aims Gallbladder carcinoma is usually associated with an unfavorable prognosis, and the clinical outcome has not improved much. This study was conducted to evaluate outcomes with gallbladder carcinoma according to the type of surgery performed, and the prognostic factors for survival. Methods One hundred and six patients with gallbladder carcinoma, who underwent surgery for the purpose of curative resection between January 1999 and June 2012 were reviewed retrospectively. Results Out of 106 patients, curative resection was achieved in 75 (70.8%). The cumulative 1-, 2- and 5-year survival rates of the gallbladder carcinoma patients were 93.4%, 80.9% and 63.0%, respectively. Radical resections, including extended cholecystectomy, were more beneficial for long term survival of patients. The 5-year survival rate in patients who underwent curative resection (56.9%) was significantly higher than in those who underwent palliative resection (0%, p=0.000). Multivariate analysis revealed that curative resection, preoperative CA19-9, T-stage, N-stage and differentiation of histology were independently significant prognostic factors. Conclusions Curative resection and early detection of patients with gallbladder carcinoma were the most important factors for long term survival. Radical resection improves survival for patients with localized gallbladder carcinoma and can help to access exact prognosis and treatments. PMID:26155265

  4. Prognostic factors of phyllodes tumor of the breast.

    PubMed

    Roa, Juan Carlos; Tapia, Oscar; Carrasco, Paula; Contreras, Enrique; Araya, Juan Carlos; Muñoz, Sergio; Roa, Iván

    2006-06-01

    The phyllodes tumor is characterized by its tendency to recur locally and occasionally to metastasize. The purpose of the present paper was to assess the prognostic value of clinical-morphological characteristics in patients with phyllodes tumor. Forty-seven cases of phyllodes tumors was studied; the World Health Organization classification was used and follow up was obtained. A total of 51%, 28% and 21% of the tumors were classified as benign, borderline and malignant, respectively. The adherence (P = 0.01), size >10 cm (P = 0.001), high mitotic activity (P = 0.03), infiltrative tumor margin (P = 0.0002) and type of surgery in malignant tumors (P = 0.02) proved to be good predictors of relapse. The presence of pain (P = 0.03), postmenopausal status (P < 0.04), heavy cellular pleomorphism (P = 0.007), high mitotic activity (P = 0.002), tumoral grade (P = 0.006) and metastasis (P < 0.00001) were prognostic factors of poor survival. Tumoral grade and some clinical-morphological characteristics of patients with phyllodes tumors have a significant impact on the prediction of its biological behavior. PMID:16704494

  5. Glycosylation-Based Serum Biomarkers for Cancer Diagnostics and Prognostics

    PubMed Central

    Kirwan, Alan; Utratna, Marta; O'Dwyer, Michael E.; Joshi, Lokesh; Kilcoyne, Michelle

    2015-01-01

    Cancer is the second most common cause of death in developed countries with approximately 14 million newly diagnosed individuals and over 6 million cancer-related deaths in 2012. Many cancers are discovered at a more advanced stage but better survival rates are correlated with earlier detection. Current clinically approved cancer biomarkers are most effective when applied to patients with widespread cancer. Single biomarkers with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity have not been identified for the most common cancers and some biomarkers are ineffective for the detection of early stage cancers. Thus, novel biomarkers with better diagnostic and prognostic performance are required. Aberrant protein glycosylation is well known hallmark of cancer and represents a promising source of potential biomarkers. Glycoproteins enter circulation from tissues or blood cells through active secretion or leakage and patient serum is an attractive option as a source for biomarkers from a clinical and diagnostic perspective. A plethora of technical approaches have been developed to address the challenges of glycosylation structure detection and determination. This review summarises currently utilised glycoprotein biomarkers and novel glycosylation-based biomarkers from the serum glycoproteome under investigation as cancer diagnostics and for monitoring and prognostics and includes details of recent high throughput and other emerging glycoanalytical techniques. PMID:26509158

  6. Survival kinase genes present prognostic significance in glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Varghese, Robin T; Liang, Yanping; Guan, Ting; Franck, Christopher T; Kelly, Deborah F; Sheng, Zhi

    2016-04-12

    Cancer biomarkers with a strong predictive power for diagnosis/prognosis and a potential to be therapeutic targets have not yet been fully established. Here we employed a loss-of-function screen in glioblastoma (GBM), an infiltrative brain tumor with a dismal prognosis, and identified 20 survival kinase genes (SKGs). Survival analyses using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets revealed that the expression of CDCP1, CDKL5, CSNK1E, IRAK3, LATS2, PRKAA1, STK3, TBRG4, and ULK4 stratified GBM prognosis with or without temozolomide (TMZ) treatment as a covariate. For the first time, we found that GBM patients with a high level of NEK9 and PIK3CB had a greater chance of having recurrent tumors. The expression of CDCP1, IGF2R, IRAK3, LATS2, PIK3CB, ULK4, or VRK1 in primary GBM tumors was associated with recurrence-related prognosis. Notably, the level of PIK3CB in recurrent tumors was much higher than that in newly diagnosed ones. Congruent with these results, genes in the PI3K/AKT pathway showed a significantly strong correlation with recurrence rate, further highlighting the pivotal role of PIK3CB in the disease progression. Importantly, 17 SKGs together presented a novel GBM prognostic signature. SKGs identified herein are associated with recurrence rate and present prognostic significance in GBM, thereby becoming attractive therapeutic targets. PMID:26956052

  7. Prognostic role of sex steroid receptors in pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Georgiadou, Despoina; Sergentanis, Theodoros N; Sakellariou, Stratigoula; Vlachodimitropoulos, Dimitris; Psaltopoulou, Theodora; Lazaris, Andreas C; Gounaris, Antonia; Zografos, George C

    2016-01-01

    From the available literature, it is unclear what proportion of pancreatic adenocarcinomas express estrogen receptors (ERα, ERβ), progesterone receptors (PR), and androgen receptors (AR), and if any of these markers have prognostic significance. We aimed to assess (1) the expression and (2) the correlation of the aforementioned markers with clinicopathological parameters and prognosis in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. During a five-year period, 60 patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma underwent surgical resection at a single institution. Immunohistochemical stains of the studied markers were quantified by Image analysis system. ERα expression was positively associated with PR expression. Moreover, ERβ was inversely associated with the presence of metastases, whereas no significant associations implicated AR. As far as the prognostic significance of the studied receptors is concerned, higher ERα expression correlated with poorer survival at the univariate analysis, but the finding dissipated at the multivariate approach. No significant associations with overall survival were noted regarding the other receptors. The role of sex hormone receptors in the survival from pancreatic adenocarcinoma seems rather limited. Further prospective studies assessing those receptors should ideally be designed in order to confirm our results and possibly outline additional correlations between other steroid receptors and features of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. PMID:26652605

  8. [Paraquat poisoning. Prognostic and therapeutic evaluation in 28 cases].

    PubMed

    Bismuth, C; Dally, S; Schermann, J M; Gaultier, M; Fournier, P E

    1982-11-01

    Since a mouthfull of the herbicidal compound Paraquat usually results in death from caustic burns, renal tubular necrosis, circulatory failure of pulmonary fibrosis, the fact that 11 out of 28 people poisoned in the period 1972-1980 survived deserves consideration. The most significant prognostic factors appear to be: (1) the mode of penetration: all 4 patients poisoned through the skin and/or the respiratory tract survived; (2) the volume of Paraquat absorbed: death from circulatory failure occurs within less than 72 hours with more than 50 mg/kg, while 35 to 50 mg/kg produce progressive pulmonary fibrosis; (3) the content of the stomach at the time of ingestion: food can neutralize the compound; (4) the finding of gastric lesions on early endoscopy; (5) evidence of acute renal failure; finally and mostly (6) Paraquat blood levels during the first 24 hours, as measured by radioimmune assays; lethal levels are 2.0, 0.6, 0.3, 0.16 and 0.10 mg/l at 4, 6, 10, 16, and 24 hours respectively. There is no overlapping between values obtained in patients who died and survivors. In this series, the course of the intoxication, as predicted from the initial prognostic factors, was unmodified by the treatments applied (Fuller's earth, dialysis, charcoal haemoperfusion, furosemide, immediate hypooxygenation). The survival of two patients with restrictive respiratory pathology seems to be ascribable to the circumstances of poisoning rather than to the treatment. PMID:7155825

  9. Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

    2015-12-01

    Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

  10. Local dynamics of heart rate: detection and prognostic implications.

    PubMed

    Moss, Travis J; Lake, Douglas E; Moorman, J Randall

    2014-10-01

    The original observation that reduced heart rate variability (HRV) confers poor prognosis after myocardial infarction has been followed by many studies of heart rate dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that an entropy-based local dynamics measure gave prognostic information in ambulatory patients undergoing 24-h electrocardiography. In this context, entropy is the probability that short templates will find matches in the time series. We studied RR interval time series from 24-h Holter monitors of 1564 consecutive patients over age 39. We generated histograms of the count of templates as a function of the number of templates matches in short RR interval time series, and found characteristic appearance of histograms for atrial fibrillation, sinus rhythm with normal HRV, and sinus rhythm with reduced HRV and premature ventricular contractions (PVCs). We developed statistical models to detect the abnormal dynamic phenotype of reduced HRV with PVCs and fashioned a local dynamics score (LDs) that, after controlling for age, added more prognostic information than other standard risk factors and common HRV metrics, including, to our surprise, the PVC count and the HRV of normal-to-normal intervals. Addition of the LDs to a predictive model using standard risk factors significantly increased the ROC area and the net reclassification improvement was 27%. We conclude that abnormal local dynamics of heart rate confer adverse prognosis in patients undergoing 24-h ambulatory electrocardiography. PMID:25229393

  11. Prognostic indications of the failure to treat amoebic liver abscesses

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez-Aguilar, Martín; Morán-Mendoza, Onofre; Herrera-Hernández, Miguel F; Hernández-Sierra, Juan Francisco; Mandeville, Peter B; Tapia-Pérez, J Humberto; Sánchez-Reyna, Martín; Sánchez-Rodríguez, José Juan; Gordillo-Moscoso, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To identify the variables that predict the failure to treat amoebic liver abscesses. Methods We prospectively carried out a case–control study on a cohort of patients who had been diagnosed with amoebic liver abscesses using clinical, ultrasonic, and serologic methods. Patients with pyogenic abscesses, negative ELISA tests for amoebiasis, immunosuppression status, or previous abdominal surgery were excluded. All patients received metronidazole, and those who demonstrated 4 days of unfavorable clinical responses received percutaneous or surgical draining of the abscess. Demographic, laboratory, and ultrasonographic characteristics were assessed as prognostic indications of failure. Results Of 40 patients with amoebic liver abscess, 24 (mean age: 36.7±11.2 years) responded to medical treatment and 16 (41.8±11.6 years) required drainage, including 14 patients who underwent percutaneous drainage and two patients who required surgery. The albumin level, abscess volume, abscess diameter, and alkaline phosphatase level were all statistically significant (P<0.05) on the bivariate analysis. The highest (>99%) sensitivity and negative predictive value were observed for an abscess volume >500 ml and diameter >10 cm, while the best specificity and positive predictive value were achieved with the combination of low serum albumin level, high alkaline phosphatase level, and large abscess volume or diameter. Conclusions The prognostic indications of the failure to treat amoebic liver abscesses include low albumin, high alkaline phosphatase, and large abscess volume or diameter. The combination of these variables is a useful and easy tool for determining appropriate therapy. PMID:23265424

  12. Immune infiltrates are prognostic factors in localized gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

    PubMed

    Rusakiewicz, Sylvie; Semeraro, Michaela; Sarabi, Matthieu; Desbois, Mélanie; Locher, Clara; Mendez, Rosa; Vimond, Nadège; Concha, Angel; Garrido, Federico; Isambert, Nicolas; Chaigneau, Loic; Le Brun-Ly, Valérie; Dubreuil, Patrice; Cremer, Isabelle; Caignard, Anne; Poirier-Colame, Vichnou; Chaba, Kariman; Flament, Caroline; Halama, Niels; Jäger, Dirk; Eggermont, Alexander; Bonvalot, Sylvie; Commo, Frédéric; Terrier, Philippe; Opolon, Paule; Emile, Jean-François; Coindre, Jean-Michel; Kroemer, Guido; Chaput, Nathalie; Le Cesne, Axel; Blay, Jean-Yves; Zitvogel, Laurence

    2013-06-15

    Cancer immunosurveillance relies on effector/memory tumor-infiltrating CD8(+) T cells with a T-helper cell 1 (TH1) profile. Evidence for a natural killer (NK) cell-based control of human malignancies is still largely missing. The KIT tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib mesylate markedly prolongs the survival of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) by direct effects on tumor cells as well as by indirect immunostimulatory effects on T and NK cells. Here, we investigated the prognostic value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) expressing CD3, Foxp3, or NKp46 (NCR1) in a cohort of patients with localized GIST. We found that CD3(+) TIL were highly activated in GIST and were especially enriched in areas of the tumor that conserve class I MHC expression despite imatinib mesylate treatment. High densities of CD3(+) TIL predicted progression-free survival (PFS) in multivariate analyses. Moreover, GIST were infiltrated by a homogeneous subset of cytokine-secreting CD56(bright) (NCAM1) NK cells that accumulated in tumor foci after imatinib mesylate treatment. The density of the NK infiltrate independently predicted PFS and added prognostic information to the Miettinen score, as well as to the KIT mutational status. NK and T lymphocytes preferentially distributed to distinct areas of tumor sections and probably contributed independently to GIST immunosurveillance. These findings encourage the prospective validation of immune biomarkers for optimal risk stratification of patients with GIST. PMID:23592754

  13. Prognostic potential of AgNORs in oral submucous fibrosis

    PubMed Central

    Murgod, Sanjay; Channabasaviah, Girish Hemadal; Shivamurthy, Dyamenahalli Malleshappa; Ashok, Lingappa; Krishnappa, Savita Jangal

    2016-01-01

    Aim and Objective: The role of prognosis cannot be stressed enough, especially when it comes to potentially malignant lesions. The argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions (AgNORs), which is simple and cost-effective has been used in diagnostic and prognostic pathologies. This study seeks to identify the nucleolar organizer regions (NORs) in oral submucous fibrosis (OSMF), to correlate the AgNOR count with the histologic grade of OSMF, and to evaluate the prognostic potential of AgNOR. Materials and Methods: The sample size consisted of archival paraffin blocks of 35 cases of varying grades of OSMF and 10 cases of squamous cell carcinoma. Normal mucosa samples served as controls for the study. AgNOR staining in accordance with the method of Smith and Crocker was performed and Student's t-test was used for statistical analysis. Results: The results showed an increase in AgNOR counts with corresponding grades of OSMF, the count being least in normal mucosa and also an increase in AgNOR count with corresponding decrease in differentiation of oral squamous cell carcinoma. Conclusion: AgNOR staining is a rapid and inexpensive procedure representing cellular proliferation that can be used to assess the nature of the lesion and therefore, the prognosis. PMID:27114958

  14. Stage Separation Failure: Model Based Diagnostics and Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luchinsky, Dmitry; Hafiychuk, Vasyl; Kulikov, Igor; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Patterson-Hine, Ann; Hanson, John; Hill, Ashley

    2010-01-01

    Safety of the next-generation space flight vehicles requires development of an in-flight Failure Detection and Prognostic (FD&P) system. Development of such system is challenging task that involves analysis of many hard hitting engineering problems across the board. In this paper we report progress in the development of FD&P for the re-contact fault between upper stage nozzle and the inter-stage caused by the first stage and upper stage separation failure. A high-fidelity models and analytical estimations are applied to analyze the following sequence of events: (i) structural dynamics of the nozzle extension during the impact; (ii) structural stability of the deformed nozzle in the presence of the pressure and temperature loads induced by the hot gas flow during engine start up; and (iii) the fault induced thrust changes in the steady burning regime. The diagnostic is based on the measurements of the impact torque. The prognostic is based on the analysis of the correlation between the actuator signal and fault-induced changes in the nozzle structural stability and thrust.

  15. Printed peptide arrays identify prognostic TNC serumantibodies in glioblastoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Mock, Andreas; Warta, Rolf; Geisenberger, Christoph; Bischoff, Ralf; Schulte, Alexander; Lamszus, Katrin; Stadler, Volker; Felgenhauer, Thomas; Schichor, Christian; Schwartz, Christoph; Matschke, Jakob; Jungk, Christine; Ahmadi, Rezvan; Sahm, Felix; Capper, David; Glass, Rainer; Tonn, Jörg-Christian; Westphal, Manfred; von Deimling, Andreas; Unterberg, Andreas; Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Herold-Mende, Christel

    2015-01-01

    Liquid biopsies come of age offering unexploited potential to monitor and react to tumor evolution. We developed a cost-effective assay to non-invasively determine the immune status of glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Employing newly developed printed peptide microarrays we assessed the B-cell response against tumor-associated antigens (TAAs) in 214 patients. Firstly, sera of long-term (36+ months, LTS, n=10) and short-term (6-10 months, STS, n=14) surviving patients were screened for prognostic antibodies against 1745 13-mer peptides covering known TAAs (TNC, EGFR, GLEA2, PHF3, FABP5, MAGEA3). Next, survival associations were investigated in two retrospective independent multicenter validation sets (n=61, n=129, all IDH1-wildtype). Reliability of measurements was tested using a second array technology (spotted arrays). LTS/STS screening analyses identified 106 differential antibody responses. Evaluating the Top30 peptides in validation set 1 revealed three prognostic peptides. Prediction of TNC peptide VCEDGFTGPDCAE was confirmed in a second set (p=0.043, HR=0.66 [0.44-0.99]) and was unrelated to TNC protein expression. Median signals of printed arrays correlated with pre-synthesized spotted microarrays (p<0.0002, R=0.33). Multiple survival analysis revealed independence of age, gender, KPI and MGMT status. We present a novel peptide microarray immune assay that identified increased anti-TNC VCEDGFTGPDCAE serum antibody titer as a promising non-invasive biomarker for prolonged survival. PMID:25944688

  16. Online Monitoring To Enable Improved Diagnostics, Prognostics and Maintenance

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Leonard J.

    2011-08-31

    Only time will tell what the implications of the Fukushima incident will be. Discussions are on-going with regard to continued operation and life extension of the existing fleet, new build, and the wider policy issues including technologies needed to address spent fuel storage and ensure energy security, and the related desires to provide sustainable energy systems while at the same time limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The science base for advanced diagnostics and prognostics to support its use in nuclear power plants (NPPs) for active components (pumps, valves etc) has been demonstrated. A challenge is enabling adaption of these technologies for NPP deployment and the validation of the data from these technologies. Advanced diagnostics, monitoring and prognostics applied to passive structures, which in the USA context of longer term operation is up to 80 years, are being researched. Early laboratory work is demonstrating the potential for these methods, although technical challenges remain. It can be expected that there will be an increased need for and use of on-line monitoring for a wide range of both active and passive systems in all types of nuclear power plants.

  17. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) 2010 Annual Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hadden, George D.; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar; Schimmel, Craig; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Mack, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Honeywell's Central Maintenance Computer Function (CMCF) and Aircraft Condition Monitoring Function (ACMF) represent the state-of-the art in integrated vehicle health management (IVHM). Underlying these technologies is a fault propagation modeling system that provides nose-to-tail coverage and root cause diagnostics. The Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) extends this technology to interpret evidence generated by advanced diagnostic and prognostic monitors provided by component suppliers to detect, isolate, and predict adverse events that affect flight safety. This report describes year one work that included defining the architecture and communication protocols and establishing the user requirements for such a system. Based on these and a set of ConOps scenarios, we designed and implemented a demonstration of communication pathways and associated three-tiered health management architecture. A series of scripted scenarios showed how VIPR would detect adverse events before they escalate as safety incidents through a combination of advanced reasoning and additional aircraft data collected from an aircraft condition monitoring system. Demonstrating VIPR capability for cases recorded in the ASIAS database and cross linking them with historical aircraft data is planned for year two.

  18. WDR5 Expression Is Prognostic of Breast Cancer Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Zhan, Chunjun; Liu, Xiuxia; Bai, Zhonghu; Yang, Yankun

    2015-01-01

    WDR5 is a core component of the human mixed lineage leukemia-2 complex, which plays central roles in ER positive tumour cells and is a major driver of androgen-dependent prostate cancer cell proliferation. Given the similarities between breast and prostate cancers, we explore the potential prognostic value of WDR5 gene expression on breast cancer survival. Our findings reveal that WDR5 over-expression is associated with poor breast cancer clinical outcome in three gene expression data sets and BreastMark. The eQTL analysis reveals 130 trans-eQTL SNPs whose genes mapped with statistical significance are significantly associated with patient survival. These genes together with WDR5 are enriched with “cellular development, gene expression, cell cycle” signallings. Knocking down WDR5 in MCF7 dramatically decreases cell viability, but does not alter tumour cell response to doxorubicin. Our study reveals the prognostic value of WDR5 expression in breast cancer which is under long-range regulation of genes involved in cell cycle, and anthracycline could be coupled with treatments targeting WDR5 once such a regimen is available. PMID:26355959

  19. Prognostic Factors for Visual Outcome in Traumatic Cataract Patients

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yan F.; Zhu, Yu; Wan, Ming G.; Du, Shan S.; Yue, Zhen Z.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the prognostic factors for visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients. Methods. The demographic features of traumatic cataract patients in Central China were studied. The factors that might influence the visual outcome were analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS (ocular trauma score) in predicting VA were calculated. Results. The study enrolled 480 cases. 65.5% of patients achieved VA at >20/60. The factors associated with the final VA were initial VA, injury type, wound location, the way of cataract removal, and IOL implantation. The sensitivities of OTS in predicting the VA at NLP (nonlight perception), LP/HM (light perception/hand motion), and ≥20/40 were 100%. The specificity of OTS to predict the final VA at 1/200-19/200 and 20/200-20/50 was 100%. Conclusion. The prognostic factors were initial VA, injury type, wound location, cataract removal procedure, and the way of IOL implantation. The OTS has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients in long follow-up. PMID:27595014

  20. Printed peptide arrays identify prognostic TNC serumantibodies in glioblastoma patients.

    PubMed

    Mock, Andreas; Warta, Rolf; Geisenberger, Christoph; Bischoff, Ralf; Schulte, Alexander; Lamszus, Katrin; Stadler, Volker; Felgenhauer, Thomas; Schichor, Christian; Schwartz, Christoph; Matschke, Jakob; Jungk, Christine; Ahmadi, Rezvan; Sahm, Felix; Capper, David; Glass, Rainer; Tonn, Jörg-Christian; Westphal, Manfred; von Deimling, Andreas; Unterberg, Andreas; Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Herold-Mende, Christel

    2015-05-30

    Liquid biopsies come of age offering unexploited potential to monitor and react to tumor evolution. We developed a cost-effective assay to non-invasively determine the immune status of glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Employing newly developed printed peptide microarrays we assessed the B-cell response against tumor-associated antigens (TAAs) in 214 patients. Firstly, sera of long-term (36+ months, LTS, n=10) and short-term (6-10 months, STS, n=14) surviving patients were screened for prognostic antibodies against 1745 13-mer peptides covering known TAAs (TNC, EGFR, GLEA2, PHF3, FABP5, MAGEA3). Next, survival associations were investigated in two retrospective independent multicenter validation sets (n=61, n=129, all IDH1-wildtype). Reliability of measurements was tested using a second array technology (spotted arrays). LTS/STS screening analyses identified 106 differential antibody responses. Evaluating the Top30 peptides in validation set 1 revealed three prognostic peptides. Prediction of TNC peptide VCEDGFTGPDCAE was confirmed in a second set (p=0.043, HR=0.66 [0.44-0.99]) and was unrelated to TNC protein expression. Median signals of printed arrays correlated with pre-synthesized spotted microarrays (p<0.0002, R=0.33). Multiple survival analysis revealed independence of age, gender, KPI and MGMT status. We present a novel peptide microarray immune assay that identified increased anti-TNC VCEDGFTGPDCAE serum antibody titer as a promising non-invasive biomarker for prolonged survival. PMID:25944688

  1. Galectin-3, a prognostic marker--and a therapeutic target?

    PubMed

    Pereira, Ana Rita; Menezes Falcão, Luiz

    2015-03-01

    The natriuretic peptides BNP and NT-proBNP are currently the most commonly used biomarkers in heart failure, but they have limitations. There is thus a need to identify new biomarkers that may prove useful, alone or in combination, for screening, diagnosis and prognosis. Galectin-3 is a protein involved in a variety of cellular signaling pathways and is found in many tissues. Its expression is low in normal hearts but elevated in fibrotic hearts. Among other effects, it promotes fibroblast proliferation and collagen synthesis, contributing to the cardiac remodeling that is central to the development and progression of heart failure. Heart failure associated with elevated galectin-3 (>17.8 ng/ml) affects 30-50% of patients with chronic heart failure, and is a marker of worse prognosis, with higher rates of short-term rehospitalization and mortality. It is thought that galectin-3 inhibition, or even genetic disruption, may reverse or delay disease progression. Galectin-3 appears to have greater prognostic value than natriuretic peptides when assessed separately, however, when combined their prognostic value is even higher. Galectin-3, associated with BNP or NT-proBNP, may help improve the diagnosis and prognosis of heart failure. PMID:25746675

  2. Prognostic Factors for Visual Outcome in Traumatic Cataract Patients.

    PubMed

    Qi, Ying; Zhang, Yan F; Zhu, Yu; Wan, Ming G; Du, Shan S; Yue, Zhen Z

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the prognostic factors for visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients. Methods. The demographic features of traumatic cataract patients in Central China were studied. The factors that might influence the visual outcome were analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of OTS (ocular trauma score) in predicting VA were calculated. Results. The study enrolled 480 cases. 65.5% of patients achieved VA at >20/60. The factors associated with the final VA were initial VA, injury type, wound location, the way of cataract removal, and IOL implantation. The sensitivities of OTS in predicting the VA at NLP (nonlight perception), LP/HM (light perception/hand motion), and ≥20/40 were 100%. The specificity of OTS to predict the final VA at 1/200-19/200 and 20/200-20/50 was 100%. Conclusion. The prognostic factors were initial VA, injury type, wound location, cataract removal procedure, and the way of IOL implantation. The OTS has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting visual outcome in traumatic cataract patients in long follow-up. PMID:27595014

  3. Pooled analysis of the prognostic relevance of progesterone receptor status in five German cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Salmen, Jessica; Neugebauer, Julia; Fasching, Peter A; Haeberle, Lothar; Huober, Jens; Wöckel, Achim; Rauh, Claudia; Schuetz, Florian; Weissenbacher, Tobias; Kost, Bernd; Stickeler, Elmar; Klar, Maximilian; Orlowska-Volk, Marzenna; Windfuhr-Blum, Marisa; Heil, Joerg; Rom, Joachim; Sohn, Christof; Fehm, Tanja; Mohrmann, Svjetlana; Loehberg, Christian R; Hein, Alexander; Schulz-Wendtland, Ruediger; Hartkopf, Andreas D; Brucker, Sara Y; Wallwiener, Diethelm; Friese, Klaus; Hartmann, Arndt; Beckmann, Matthias W; Janni, Wolfgang; Rack, Brigitte

    2014-11-01

    The progesterone receptor (PR) has been increasingly well described as an important mediator of the pathogenesis and progression of breast cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the role of PR status as a prognostic factor in addition to other well-established prognostic factors. Data from five independent German breast cancer centers were pooled. A total of 7,965 breast cancer patients were included for whom information about their PR status was known, as well as other patient and tumor characteristics commonly used as prognostic factors. Cox proportional hazards models were built to compare the predictive value of PR status in addition to age at diagnosis, tumor size, nodal status, grading, and estrogen receptor (ER) status. PR status significantly increased the accuracy of prognostic predictions with regard to overall survival, distant disease-free survival, and local recurrence-free survival. There were differences with regard to its prognostic value relative to subgroups such as nodal status, ER status, and grading. The prognostic value of PR status was greatest in patients with a positive nodal status, negative ER status, and low grading. The PR-status adds prognostic value in addition to ER status and should not be omitted from clinical routine testing. The significantly greater prognostic value in node-positive and high-grade tumors suggests a greater role in the progression of advanced and aggressive tumors. PMID:25253172

  4. Determining How to Do Prognostics, and then Determining What to Do with It

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Hostick, Cody J.; Rhoads, Russel E.; Keeney, Miranda

    2001-08-20

    Understanding how to do prognostics is rapidly evolving, due largely to equipment designs incorporating digital controls with larger embedded sensor suites, greater on-board processing capability, and better algorithms for predicting system health. An area of study that is in its infancy, however, is the development of doctrine regarding what you do with prognostic information, once you have it. The Logistics Integration Agency (LIA) has initiated the Weapons Systems Support - Platform-based Readiness (WSSPR) Program to accelerate development and fielding of the hardware, information systems and business processes needed to seamlessly generate, transmit and use real-time, platform based readiness data. LIA is a Field Operating Agency of the ODCSLOG. LIA?s missions include integrating logistics systems and processes; developing, testing and demonstrating modern logistics technologies and business practices; and managing the strategic planning and change process for Army logistics. The WSSPR Program seeks not only to adapt commercial and military best practices into a robust embedded diagnostic and prognostic system with real-time logistical situational awareness reporting, but also to investigate how future logistics support concepts need to be adapted to use self-reporting platform data to full advantage. Tackling the ''How'' to do Prognostics Challenge In broad terms, the challenge of prognostics is to first identify where you should apply prognostic technology, and then determine if you can apply prognostic technology. Equipment total ownership cost profiles and analysis of readiness drivers identifies many areas where prognostic technology is needed, but the appropriate technology has not yet been developed.

  5. Prognostic Implication of the Absolute Lymphocyte to Absolute Monocyte Count Ratio in Patients With Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma Treated With Doxorubicin, Bleomycin, Vinblastine, and Dacarbazine or Equivalent Regimens.

    PubMed

    Vassilakopoulos, Theodoros P; Dimopoulou, Maria N; Angelopoulou, Maria K; Petevi, Kyriaki; Pangalis, Gerassimos A; Moschogiannis, Maria; Dimou, Maria; Boutsikas, George; Kanellopoulos, Alexandros; Gainaru, Gabriella; Plata, Eleni; Flevari, Pagona; Koutsi, Katerina; Papageorgiou, Loula; Telonis, Vassilios; Tsaftaridis, Panayiotis; Sachanas, Sotirios; Yiakoumis, Xanthoula; Tsirkinidis, Pantelis; Viniou, Nora-Athina; Siakantaris, Marina P; Variami, Eleni; Kyrtsonis, Marie-Christine; Meletis, John; Panayiotidis, Panayiotis; Konstantopoulos, Kostas

    2016-03-01

    Low absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) to absolute monocyte count (AMC) ratio (ALC/AMC) is an independent prognostic factor in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), but different cutoffs (1.1, 1.5, and 2.9) have been applied. We aimed to validate the prognostic significance of ALC/AMC in 537 homogenously treated (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine or equivalents ± radiotherapy) classical HL patients at various cutoffs. The median ALC/AMC was 2.24 (0.44-20.50). The median AMC was 0.653 × 10(9)/L (0.050-2.070). Lower ALC/AMC was associated with established markers of adverse prognosis. In total, 477 (89%), 418 (78%), and 189 (35%) patients had an ALC/AMC ratio of ≥1.1, ≥1.5, and ≥2.9; respectively; 20% had monocytosis (≥0.9 × 10(9)/L). Ten-year time to progression (TTP) was 77% versus 55% for patients with ALC/AMC ≥1.1 and <1.1 (p = .0002), 76% versus 68% for ALC/AMC ≥1.5 and <1.5 (p = .049), 77% versus 73% for ALC/AMC ≥2.9 and <2.9 (p = .35), and 79% versus 70% for ALC/AMC ≥2.24 and <2.24 (p = .08), respectively. In stages ΙΑ/ΙΙΑ and in patients ≥60 years old, ALC/AMC had no significant effect on TTP. In advanced stages, ALC/AMC was significant only at the cutoff of 1.1 (10-year TTP 67% vs. 48%; p = .016). In younger, advanced-stage patients, the differences were more pronounced. In multivariate analysis of TTP, ALC/AMC < 1.1 (p = .007) and stage IV (p < .001) were independent prognostic factors; ALC/AMC was independent of International Prognostic Score in another model. ALC/AMC was more predictive of overall survival than TTP. At the cutoff of 1.1, ALC/AMC had independent prognostic value in multivariate analysis. However, the prognostically inferior group comprised only 11% of patients. Further research is needed prior to the widespread use of this promising marker. PMID:26921291

  6. IGHV gene mutational status and 17p deletion are independent molecular predictors in a comprehensive clinical-biological prognostic model for overall survival prediction in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Prognostic index for survival estimation by clinical-demographic variables were previously proposed in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. Our objective was to test in a large retrospective cohort of CLL patients the prognostic power of biological and clinical-demographic variable in a comprehensive multivariate model. A new prognostic index was proposed. Methods Overall survival and time to treatment in 620 untreated CLL patients were analyzed retrospectively to evaluate the multivariate independence and predictive power of mutational status of immunoglobulin heavy chain variable gene segments (IGHV), high-risk chromosomal aberration such as 17p or 11q deletions, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression, age, gender, Binet stage, β2-microglobulin levels, absolute lymphocyte count and number of lymph node regions. Results IGHV mutational status and 17p deletion were the sole biological variables with independent prognostic relevance in a multivariate model for overall survival, which included easily measurable clinical parameters (Binet staging, β2-microglobulin levels) and demographics (age and gender). Analysis of time to treatment in Binet A patients below 70 years of age showed that IGHV was the most important predictor. A novel 6-variable clinical-biological prognostic index was developed and internally validated, which assigned 3 points for Binet C stage, 2 points/each for Binet B stage and for age > 65 years, 1 point/each for male gender, high β2-microglobulin levels, presence of an unmutated IGHV gene status or 17p deletion. Patients were classified at low-risk (score = 0-1; 21%), intermediate-risk (score 2-5; 63% of cases), high-risk (score 6-9; 16% of cases). Projected 5-year overall survival was 98%, 90% and 58% in low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively. A nomogram for individual patient survival estimation was also proposed. Conclusions Data indicate that IGHV mutational status and 17p deletion may be integrated with clinical

  7. Arsenic trioxide in front-line therapy of acute promyelocytic leukemia (C9710): prognostic significance of FLT3 mutations and complex karyotype

    PubMed Central

    Poiré, Xavier; Moser, Barry K.; Gallagher, Robert E.; Laumann, Kristina; Bloomfield, Clara D.; Powell, Bayard L.; Koval, Gregory; Gulati, Kabir; Holowka, Nicholas; Larson, Richard A.; Tallman, Martin S.; Appelbaum, Frederick R.; Sher, Dorie; Willman, Cheryl; Paietta, Elisabeth; Stock, Wendy

    2014-01-01

    The addition of arsenic trioxide (ATO) to frontline therapy of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) has been shown to result in significant improvements in disease-free survival (DFS). FLT3 mutations are frequently observed in APL, but its prognostic significance remains unclear. We analyzed 245 newly diagnosed adult patients with APL treated on intergroup trial C9710 and evaluated previously defined biological and prognostic factors and their relationship to FLT3 mutations and to additional karyotypic abnormalities. FLT3 mutations were found in 48% of patients, including 31% with an internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD), 14% with a point mutation (FLT3-D835) and 2% with both mutations. The FLT3-ITD mutant level was uniformly low, <0.5. Neither FLT3 mutation had an impact on remission rate, induction death rate, DFS or overall survival (OS). The addition of ATO consolidation improved outcomes regardless of FLT3 mutation type or level, initial white blood cell count, PML–RARA isoform type or transcript level. The presence of a complex karyotype was strongly associated with an inferior OS independently of post-remission treatment. In conclusion, the addition of ATO to frontline therapy overcomes the impact of previously described adverse prognostic factors including FLT3 mutations. However, complex karyotype is strongly associated with an inferior OS despite ATO therapy. PMID:24160850

  8. Arsenic trioxide in front-line therapy of acute promyelocytic leukemia (C9710): prognostic significance of FLT3 mutations and complex karyotype.

    PubMed

    Poiré, Xavier; Moser, Barry K; Gallagher, Robert E; Laumann, Kristina; Bloomfield, Clara D; Powell, Bayard L; Koval, Gregory; Gulati, Kabir; Holowka, Nicholas; Larson, Richard A; Tallman, Martin S; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Sher, Dorie; Willman, Cheryl; Paietta, Elisabeth; Stock, Wendy

    2014-07-01

    The addition of arsenic trioxide (ATO) to frontline therapy of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) has been shown to result in significant improvements in disease-free survival (DFS). FLT3 mutations are frequently observed in APL, but its prognostic significance remains unclear. We analyzed 245 newly diagnosed adult patients with APL treated on intergroup trial C9710 and evaluated previously defined biological and prognostic factors and their relationship to FLT3 mutations and to additional karyotypic abnormalities. FLT3 mutations were found in 48% of patients, including 31% with an internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD), 14% with a point mutation (FLT3-D835) and 2% with both mutations. The FLT3-ITD mutant level was uniformly low, < 0.5. Neither FLT3 mutation had an impact on remission rate, induction death rate, DFS or overall survival (OS). The addition of ATO consolidation improved outcomes regardless of FLT3 mutation type or level, initial white blood cell count, PML-RARA isoform type or transcript level. The presence of a complex karyotype was strongly associated with an inferior OS independently of post-remission treatment. In conclusion, the addition of ATO to frontline therapy overcomes the impact of previously described adverse prognostic factors including FLT3 mutations. However, complex karyotype is strongly associated with an inferior OS despite ATO therapy. PMID:24160850

  9. Prognostic nomogram for overall survival in previously untreated patients with extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma, nasal-type: a multicenter study.

    PubMed

    Yang, Y; Zhang, Y-J; Zhu, Y; Cao, J-Z; Yuan, Z-Y; Xu, L-M; Wu, J-X; Wang, W; Wu, T; Lu, B; Zhu, S-Y; Qian, L-T; Zhang, F-Q; Hou, X-R; Liu, Q-F; Li, Y-X

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a widely accepted prognostic nomogram for extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma, nasal-type (NKTCL). The clinical data from 1383 patients with NKTCL treated at 10 participating institutions between 2000 and 2011 were reviewed. A nomogram was developed that predicted overall survival (OS) based on the Cox proportional hazards model. To contrast the utility of the nomogram against the widely used Ann Arbor staging system, the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and the Korean Prognostic Index (KPI), we used the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration curve to determine its predictive and discriminatory capacity. The 5-year OS rate was 60.3% for the entire group. The nomogram included five important variables based on a multivariate analysis of the primary cohort: stage; age; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; lactate dehydrogenase; and primary tumor invasion. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram was able to predict 5-year OS accurately. The C-index of the nomogram for OS prediction was 0.72 for both cohorts, which was superior to the predictive power (range, 0.56-0.64) of the Ann Arbor stage, IPI and KPI in the primary and validation cohorts. The proposed nomogram provides an individualized risk estimate of OS in patients with NKTCL. PMID:25697894

  10. Prognostic residual mean flow in an ocean general circulation model and its relation to prognostic Eulerian mean flow

    SciTech Connect

    Saenz, Juan A.; Chen, Qingshan; Ringler, Todd

    2015-05-19

    Recent work has shown that taking the thickness-weighted average (TWA) of the Boussinesq equations in buoyancy coordinates results in exact equations governing the prognostic residual mean flow where eddy–mean flow interactions appear in the horizontal momentum equations as the divergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux tensor (EPFT). It has been proposed that, given the mathematical tractability of the TWA equations, the physical interpretation of the EPFT, and its relation to potential vorticity fluxes, the TWA is an appropriate framework for modeling ocean circulation with parameterized eddies. The authors test the feasibility of this proposition and investigate the connections between the TWA framework and the conventional framework used in models, where Eulerian mean flow prognostic variables are solved for. Using the TWA framework as a starting point, this study explores the well-known connections between vertical transfer of horizontal momentum by eddy form drag and eddy overturning by the bolus velocity, used by Greatbatch and Lamb and Gent and McWilliams to parameterize eddies. After implementing the TWA framework in an ocean general circulation model, we verify our analysis by comparing the flows in an idealized Southern Ocean configuration simulated using the TWA and conventional frameworks with the same mesoscale eddy parameterization.

  11. Prognostic residual mean flow in an ocean general circulation model and its relation to prognostic Eulerian mean flow

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Saenz, Juan A.; Chen, Qingshan; Ringler, Todd

    2015-05-19

    Recent work has shown that taking the thickness-weighted average (TWA) of the Boussinesq equations in buoyancy coordinates results in exact equations governing the prognostic residual mean flow where eddy–mean flow interactions appear in the horizontal momentum equations as the divergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux tensor (EPFT). It has been proposed that, given the mathematical tractability of the TWA equations, the physical interpretation of the EPFT, and its relation to potential vorticity fluxes, the TWA is an appropriate framework for modeling ocean circulation with parameterized eddies. The authors test the feasibility of this proposition and investigate the connections between the TWAmore » framework and the conventional framework used in models, where Eulerian mean flow prognostic variables are solved for. Using the TWA framework as a starting point, this study explores the well-known connections between vertical transfer of horizontal momentum by eddy form drag and eddy overturning by the bolus velocity, used by Greatbatch and Lamb and Gent and McWilliams to parameterize eddies. After implementing the TWA framework in an ocean general circulation model, we verify our analysis by comparing the flows in an idealized Southern Ocean configuration simulated using the TWA and conventional frameworks with the same mesoscale eddy parameterization.« less

  12. International Geology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Linn

    1977-01-01

    Briefly discusses recent international programs in various areas of geology, including land-use problems, coping with geological hazards, and conserving the environment while searching for energy and mineral resources. (MLH)

  13. International Health

    MedlinePlus

    ... create refugee populations with immediate and long-term health problems. Some of the major diseases currently affecting ... also an international problem which can affect people's health. Many countries and health organizations are working together ...

  14. Preliminary photovoltaic arc-fault prognostic tests using sacrificial fiber optic cabling.

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Jay; Blemel, Kenneth D.; Peter, Francis

    2013-02-01

    Through the New Mexico Small Business Assistance Program, Sandia National Laboratories worked with Sentient Business Systems, Inc. to develop and test a novel photovoltaic (PV) arc-fault detection system. The system operates by pairing translucent polymeric fiber optic sensors with electrical circuitry so that any external abrasion to the system or internal heating causes the fiber optic connection to fail or detectably degrade. A periodic pulse of light is sent through the optical path using a transmitter-receiver pair. If the receiver does not detect the pulse, an alarm is sounded and the PV system can be de-energized. This technology has the unique ability to prognostically determine impending failures to the electrical system in two ways: (a) the optical connection is severed prior to physical abrasion or cutting of PV DC electrical conductors, and (b) the polymeric fiber optic cable melts via Joule heating before an arc-fault is established through corrosion. Three arc-faults were created in different configurations found in PV systems with the integrated fiber optic system to determine the feasibility of the technology. In each case, the fiber optic cable was broken and the system annunciated the fault.

  15. Thymidine labeling index: prognostic role in breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Bilir, Ayhan; Ozmen, V; Kecer, M; Eralp, Yesim; Cabioglu, Neslihan; Ahishali, Bulent; Agizhali, Bulent; Camlica, Hakan; Aydiner, Adnan

    2004-08-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the prognostic role of thymidine labeling index in patients with breast cancer. Cellular proliferation rates in 155 breast cancer specimens were investigated by 3H-thymidine labeling index (3H-TLI). Median age was 47 years (range: 23-76). At presentation, 11 patients (7.1%) had stage I disease, 76 (49%) had stage II, 64 (41.3%) had stage III disease, and 4 (2.6%) had metastatic involvement. Patients were placed in 2 groups based on their proliferative indices. The cut-off level was assigned as the median TLI value of the whole group. Correlations between proliferative activity of the tumors based on 3H-TLI levels and various previously established prognostic factors, as well as the influence of proliferative activity on survival as a clinical outcome, were analyzed. The mean and median TLI values for the whole group of patients were 4.36 +/- 4.96% and 2.76% (range: 0-23.6), respectively. There was a significant association of nuclear grade with TLI (P = 0.04). Patients who were alive with no sign of disease at the final follow-up examination had a significantly lower median TLI rate than those who were either alive with disease or those who had eventually died with disease progression (3.7% versus 1.9%, respectively; P = 0.04). Patients with locally advanced disease (N2 + N3 involvement) had a significantly higher median TLI rate than those with local nodal involvement (N1) (3.4% versus 1.7%, respectively, P = 0.026). Furthermore, TLI levels showed a significant association with overall survival in patients with node-negative disease (P = 0.02). Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that TLI plays a significant prognostic role in a subset of patients with node-negative breast cancer. Furthermore, TLI appears to have a predictive value for the clinical outcome of patients with breast cancer. These findings may justify a more aggressive therapeutic approach in patients with high TLI levels. Further large

  16. Prognostic Parameters and Spinal Metastases: A Research Study

    PubMed Central

    Daniel, Jefferson W.; Veiga, José C. E.

    2014-01-01

    Object To identify pre-operative prognostic parameters for survival in patients with spinal epidural neoplastic metastasis when the primary tumour is unknown. Methods This study was a retrospective chart review of patients who underwent surgery for spinal epidural neoplastic metastases between February 1997 and January 2011. The inclusion criteria were as follows: known post-operative survival period, a Karnofsky Performance Score equal to or greater than 30 points and a post-operative neoplastic metastasis histological type. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate post-operative survival, and the Log-Rank test was used for statistical inference. Results A total of 52 patients who underwent 52 surgical procedures were identified. The mean age at the time of spinal surgery was 53.92 years (std. deviation, 19.09). The median survival after surgery was 70 days (95% CI 49.97–90.02), and post-operative mortality occurred within 6 months in 38 (73.07%) patients. Lung cancer, prostate cancer, myeloma and lymphoma, the 4 most common primary tumour types, affected 32 (61.53%) patients. The three identified prognostic parameters were the following: pre-operative walking incapacity (American Spinal Injury Association, A and B), present in 86.53% of the patients (p-value = 0.107); special care dependency (Karnofsky Performance Score, 10–40 points), present in 90.38% of the patients (p-value = 0.322); and vertebral epidural neoplastic metastases that were in contact with the thecal sac (Weinstein-Boriani-Biagini, sector D), present in 94.23% of the patients (p-value = 0.643). When the three secondary prognostic parameters were combined, the mean post-operative survival was 45 days; when at least one was present, the survival was 82 days (p-value = 0.175). Conclusions Walking incapacity, special care dependency and contact between the neoplastic metastases and the thecal sac can help determine the ultimate survival of this patient population and

  17. Mutation Profiling in Cholangiocarcinoma: Prognostic and Therapeutic Implications

    PubMed Central

    Churi, Chaitanya R.; Shroff, Rachna; Wang, Ying; Rashid, Asif; Kang, HyunSeon C.; Weatherly, Jacqueline; Zuo, Mingxin; Zinner, Ralph; Hong, David; Meric-Bernstam, Funda; Janku, Filip; Crane, Christopher H.; Mishra, Lopa; Vauthey, Jean-Nicholas; Wolff, Robert A.; Mills, Gordon; Javle, Milind

    2014-01-01

    Background Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is clinically heterogeneous; intra and extrahepatic CCA have diverse clinical presentations. Next generation sequencing (NGS) technology may identify the genetic differences between these entities and identify molecular subgroups for targeted therapeutics. Methods We describe successful NGS-based testing of 75 CCA patients along with the prognostic and therapeutic implications of findings. Mutation profiling was performed using either a) NGS panel of hotspot regions in 46 cancer-related genes using a 318-chip on Ion PGM Sequencer or b) Illumina HiSeq 2000 sequencing platform for 3,769 exons of 236 cancer-related genes plus 47 introns from 19 genes to an average depth of 1000X. Clinical data was abstracted and correlated with clinical outcome. Patients with targetable mutations were referred to appropriate clinical trials. Results There were significant differences between intrahepatic (n = 55) and extrahepatic CCA (n = 20) in regard to the nature and frequency of the genetic aberrations (GAs). IDH1 and DNA repair gene alterations occurred more frequently in intrahepatic CCA, while ERBB2 GAs occurred in the extrahepatic group. Commonly occurring GAs in intrahepatic CCA were TP53 (35%), KRAS (24%), ARID1A (20%), IDH1 (18%), MCL1 (16%) and PBRM1 (11%). Most frequent GAs in extrahepatic CCA (n = 20) were TP53 (45%), KRAS (40%), ERBB2 (25%), SMAD4 (25%), FBXW7 (15%) and CDKN2A (15%). In intrahepatic CCA, KRAS, TP53 or MAPK/mTOR GAs were significantly associated with a worse prognosis while FGFR GAs correlated with a relatively indolent disease course. IDH1 GAs did not have any prognostic significance. GAs in the chromatin modulating genes, BAP1 and PBRM1 were associated with bone metastases and worse survival in extrahepatic CCA. Radiologic responses and clinical benefit was noted with EGFR, FGFR, C-met, B-RAF and MEK inhibitors. Conclusion There are significant genetic differences between intra and extrahepatic CCA. NGS

  18. Prognostic significance of preoperative fibrinogen in patients with colon cancer

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Zhen-Qiang; Han, Xiao-Na; Wang, Hai-Jiang; Tang, Yong; Zhao, Ze-Liang; Qu, Yan-Li; Xu, Rui-Wei; Liu, Yan-Yan; Yu, Xian-Bo

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the prognostic significance of preoperative fibrinogen levels in colon cancer patients. METHODS: A total of 255 colon cancer patients treated at the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from June 1st 2005 to June 1st 2008 were enrolled in the study. All patients received radical surgery as their primary treatment method. Preoperative fibrinogen was detected by the Clauss method, and all patients were followed up after surgery. Preoperative fibrinogen measurements were correlated with a number of clinicopathological parameters using the Student t test and analysis of variance. Survival analyses were performed by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression modeling to measure 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: The mean preoperative fibrinogen concentration of all colon cancer patients was 3.17 ± 0.88 g/L. Statistically significant differences were found between preoperative fibrinogen levels and the clinicopathological parameters of age, smoking status, tumor size, tumor location, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, modified Glasgow prognostic scores (mGPS), white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels. Univariate survival analysis showed that TNM stage, tumor cell differentiation grade, vascular invasion, mGPS score, preoperative fibrinogen, WBC, NLR, PLR and CEA all correlated with both OS and DFS. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and body mass index correlated only with OS. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that both OS and DFS of the total cohort, as well as of the stage II and III patients, were higher in the hypofibrinogen group compared to the hyperfibrinogen group (all P < 0.05). In contrast, there was no significant difference between OS and DFS in stage I patients with low or high fibrinogen levels. Cox regression analysis indicated preoperative fibrinogen levels, TNM stage, mGPS score, CEA, and

  19. Association of Telomere Length with Breast Cancer Prognostic Factors

    PubMed Central

    Têtu, Bernard; Maunsell, Elizabeth; Poirier, Brigitte; Montoni, Alicia; Rochette, Patrick J.; Diorio, Caroline

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Telomere length, a marker of cell aging, seems to be affected by the same factors thought to be associated with breast cancer prognosis. Objective To examine associations of peripheral blood cell-measured telomere length with traditional and potential prognostic factors in breast cancer patients. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data collected before surgery from 162 breast cancer patients recruited consecutively between 01/2011 and 05/2012, at a breast cancer reference center. Data on the main lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity) were collected using standardized questionnaires. Anthropometric factors were measured. Tumor biological characteristics were extracted from pathology reports. Telomere length was measured using a highly reproducible quantitative PCR method in peripheral white blood cells. Spearman partial rank-order correlations and multivariate general linear models were used to evaluate relationships between telomere length and prognostic factors. Results Telomere length was positively associated with total physical activity (rs = 0.17, P = 0.033; Ptrend = 0.069), occupational physical activity (rs = 0.15, P = 0.054; Ptrend = 0.054) and transportation-related physical activity (rs = 0.19, P = 0.019; P = 0.005). Among post-menopausal women, telomere length remained positively associated with total physical activity (rs = 0.27, P = 0.016; Ptrend = 0.054) and occupational physical activity (rs = 0.26, P = 0.021; Ptrend = 0.056) and was only associated with transportation-related physical activity among pre-menopausal women (rs = 0.27, P = 0.015; P = 0.004). No association was observed between telomere length and recreational or household activities, other lifestyle factors or traditional prognostic factors. Conclusions Telomeres are longer in more active breast cancer patients. Since white blood cells are involved in anticancer immune responses, these findings suggest that even regular low

  20. Excellent outcomes and lack of prognostic impact of cell of origin for localized diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the rituximab era.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Anita; Lunning, Matthew A; Zhang, Zhigang; Migliacci, Jocelyn C; Moskowitz, Craig H; Zelenetz, Andrew D

    2015-12-01

    Therapeutic options for limited-stage diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) include short- or full-course R-CHOP (rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisolone) ± radiotherapy. The optimal treatment remains unclear. The prognostic value of cell-of-origin (COO) in early stage DLBCL is unknown. Patients with limited-stage DLBCL (stage I or stage II, non-bulky) treated with R-CHOP ± involved field radiotherapy (IFRT) from 1999 to 2012 were included. COO by the Hans algorithm was analysed in a subset of patients. Of 261 patients, 30% were stage I (N = 82), 37% stage IE (N = 96), <1% stage IXEE (N = 1), 18% stage II (N = 46) and 14% stage IIE (N = 37). The stage-modified International Prognostic Index stratified patients into prognostically relevant groups. There was no significant difference in progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) for patients in the germinal centre B-cell-like (GCB; n = 65) and non-GCB cohorts (n = 22). Seventeen patients received R-CHOP × 3-4 cycles (Arm A), 147 received R-CHOP × 3-4 cycles + IFRT (Arm B), 48 received R-CHOP × 6 cycles (Arm C), and 50 received R-CHOP × 6 cycles + IFRT (Arm D). The outcomes were excellent, with 5-year PFS of 82% and 5-year OS of 93%, and were similar across the 4 treatment groups. In the rituximab era, outcomes for limited-stage DLBCL, regardless of treatment approach, were excellent. Baseline COO was not a significant prognostic factor in patients treated with short-course R-CHOP + IFRT. PMID:26456939

  1. Rational bases for the use of the Immunoscore in routine clinical settings as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Kirilovsky, Amos; Marliot, Florence; El Sissy, Carine; Haicheur, Nacilla; Galon, Jérôme; Pagès, Franck

    2016-08-01

    The American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union Internationale Contre le Cancer (AJCC/UICC) tumor, nodes, metastasis (TNM) classification system based on tumor features is used for prognosis estimation and treatment recommendations in most cancers. However, the clinical outcome can vary significantly among patients within the same tumor stage and TNM classification does not predict response to therapy. Therefore, many efforts have been focused on the identification of new markers. Multiple tumor cell-based approaches have been proposed but very few have been translated into the clinic. The recent demonstration of the essential role of the immune system in tumor progression has allowed great advances in the understanding of this complex disease and in the design of novel therapies. The analysis of the immune infiltrate by imaging techniques in large patient cohorts highlighted the prognostic impact of the in situ immune cell infiltrate in tumors. Moreover, the characterization of the immune infiltrates (e.g. type, density, distribution within the tumor, phenotype, activation status) in patients treated with checkpoint-blockade strategies could provide information to predict the disease outcome. In colorectal cancer, we have developed a prognostic score ('Immunoscore') that takes into account the distribution of the density of both CD3(+) lymphocytes and CD8(+) cytotoxic T cells in the tumor core and the invasive margin that could outperform TNM staging. Currently, an international retrospective study is under way to validate the Immunoscore prognostic performance in patients with colon cancer. The use of Immunoscore in clinical practice could improve the patients' prognostic assessment and therapeutic management. PMID:27121213

  2. Validation of EORTC and CALGB prognostic models in surgical patients submitted to diagnostic, palliative or curative surgery for malignant pleural mesothelioma

    PubMed Central

    Guerrera, Francesco; Roffinella, Matteo; Olivetti, Stefania; Costardi, Lorena; Oliaro, Alberto; Filosso, Pier Luigi; Lausi, Paolo Olivo; Ruffini, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Background To assess the trend of our surgical patients affected by malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) and submitted to diagnostic/palliative or curative surgical procedures and to validate the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) prognostic score in our patient population. Methods This is a cohort study of patients submitted to surgery for MPM from January 2007 to December 2013. Primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Univariate and multivariate-adjusted comparisons by EORTC prognostic score for OS were accomplished using Cox method. Adjusted models included the following clinical variables: kind of procedure, smoking habit, asbestos exposure, Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI), clinical tumor stage, adjuvant chemotherapy, dyspnoea, chest pain and haematological variables according to the score features. Nomenclature of the surgical procedures matches the International Association for the Study Lung Cancer (IASLC)/International Mesothelioma Interest Group (iMIG). Results One-hundred sixty-six consecutive cases were collected: the median age at surgery was 73 years and 123 patients (75%) had a history of asbestos exposure. Ninty patients (54%) were submitted to a palliative/diagnostic thoracoscopy, 30 to pleurectomy/decortication (P/D), and 6 to extra-pleural pneumonectomy (EPP). Clinical TNM stages were as follows: 99 (60%) stage I–II, 34 (20%) stage III and 33 (20%) stage IV. The median follow-up (FU) was 19 months [interquartile range (IQR), 9–31 months] and the FU-completeness was 98%. By the end of the study 130 patients died (78%). One- and 3-year OS was 60% and 36%, respectively. Patients submitted to EPP and P/D showed a better survival (P=0.013). Multivariable model showed an independent prognostic value of EORTC score (HR =2.86, P<0.001). Conclusions In selected patients, aggressive surgical approaches, although not radical, may still be beneficial. The EORTC prognostic index proved to be an independent prognostic

  3. Prognostic Genetic Signatures in Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Li, Qiang; Bagrodia, Aditya; Cha, Eugene K; Coleman, Jonathan A

    2016-02-01

    Urothelial carcinoma is a highly heterogeneous disease that can arise throughout the entire urothelial lining from the renal pelvis to the proximal urethra. Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is rare, and while it shares many similarities with urothelial carcinoma of bladder (UCB), there are also significant differences between UTUC and UCB regarding clinical management and outcomes. No major advances have been made recently in the development of new systemic therapies for urothelial carcinoma, partly due to the lack of understanding of underlying molecular pathogenetic mechanisms. In the past decade, the emergence of next-generation sequencing has greatly enabled genomic characterization of tumor samples. Researchers are currently exploring a personalized approach to augment traditional clinical decision-making based on genetic alterations. In the present review, we summarize current genomic advances in UTUC and discuss the potential implications of these developments for developing prognostic and predictive biomarkers. PMID:26757906

  4. Prognostic Impact of Cerebral Small Vessel Disease on Stroke Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Beom Joon

    2015-01-01

    Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD), which includes white matter hyperintensities (WMHs), silent brain infarction (SBI), and cerebral microbleeds (CMBs), develops in a conjunction of cumulated injuries to cerebral microvascular beds, increased permeability of blood-brain barriers, and chronic oligemia. SVD is easily detected by routine neuroimaging modalities such as brain computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. Research has revealed that the presence of SVD markers may increase the risk of future vascular events as well as deteriorate functional recovery and neurocognitive trajectories after stroke, and such an association could also be applied to hemorrhagic stroke survivors. Currently, the specific mechanistic processes leading to the development and manifestation of SVD risk factors are unknown, and further studies with novel methodological tools are warranted. In this review, recent studies regarding the prognostic impact of WMHs, SBI, and CMBs on stroke survivors and briefly summarize the pathophysiological concepts underlying the manifestation of cerebral SVD. PMID:26060797

  5. Cancer of the glottis: prognostic factors in radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Mantravadi, R.V.; Liebner, E.J.; Haas, R.E.; Skolnik, E.M.; Applebaum, E.L.

    1983-10-01

    The authors conducted a multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors in 96 patients with early glottic cancer treated by radiation therapy. Of these, 73 had T1 and 23 had T2 tumor. The primary tumor was controlled in 82% of T1 and 74% of T2 lesions. Actuarial five-year survival rates were 87% for T1 and 74% for T2. Carcinoma of the anterior commissure associated with bilateral vocal cord involvement, subglottic tumor extension, persistent or recurrent laryngeal edema, and impaired cord mobility was found to adversely influence the prognosis. The data suggest that irradiation is the treatment of choice for glottic cancer limited to the vocal cords or with minimal extension to the anterior commissure or supraglottic larynx.

  6. Cancer of the glottis: prognostic factors in radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Mantravadi, R.V.P.; Liebner, E.J.; Haas, R.E.; Skolnik, E.M.; Applebaum, E.L.

    1983-10-01

    The authors conducted a multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors in 96 patients with early glottic cancer treated by radiation therapy. Of these, 73 had T/sub 1/ and 23 had T/sub 2/ tumor. The primary tumor was controlled in 82% of T/sub 1/ amd 74% for T/sub 2/. Carcinoma of the anterior commissure associated with bilateral vocal cord involvement, subglottic tumor extension, persistent or recurrent laryngeal edema, and impaired cord mobility was found to adversely influence the prognosis. The data suggest that irradiation is the treatment of choice for glottic cancer limited to the vocal cords or with minimal extension to the anterior commissure or gupraglottic larynx.

  7. Prognostic significance of DNA aneuploidy in diffuse malignant mesothelioma

    SciTech Connect

    Isobe, Hiroshi; Sridhar, K.S.; Doria, R.

    1995-01-01

    DNA ploidy of pepsin digested preparations of 48 paraffin-embedded specimens from 19 patients with histologically confirmed malignant mesothelioma was determined by laser flow cytometry. Eight of the 19 tumors (42%) were diploid and 11 (58%) were aneuploid. Of the aneuploid tumors, only one showed multiploidy. The median survival time of the patients with diploid tumors was 19, 16, and 14 months from the onset of symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment, respectively. The median survival in patients with aneuploid tumors was 8, 7, and 7 months from the onset of first symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment. Thus, patients with diploid tumors lived longer than patients with aneuploid tumors. These results suggest that DNA ploidy analysis may be of prognostic value in malignant mesothelioma. 31 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. [Cancer stem cell markers and their prognostic value].

    PubMed

    Puchinskaya, M V

    2016-01-01

    Based on an analysis of a large number of sources of literature, the paper gives general information on the markers for cancer stem cells (CSCs), which allow the detection of this rare cell subpopulation, on the possibilities of estimating their immunohistochemical or immunofluorescent expression in tumors, and on the prognostic and predictive values of these molecules. For their detection, investigators generally use definite molecules, the so-called markers of CSCs, among which there are CD44, CD133, CD24, aldehyde dehydrogenase, and others. The expression of these molecules in the tumor tissue obtained from patients affects survival rates and permits the prediction of a response to therapy. A better insight into the immunophenotype of CSCs, the role of CSC markers in retaining the special properties of this call population, and the clinical significance of the expression of CSC markers will be able to elaborate new approaches to therapy for malignancies. PMID:27340717

  9. The art and science of prognostication in early university medicine.

    PubMed

    Demaitre, Luke

    2003-01-01

    Prognosis occupied a more prominent place in the medieval curriculum than it does at the modern university. Scholastic discussions were rooted in the Hippocratic Aphorisms and shaped by Galen's treatises On Crisis and On Critical Days. Medical prediction, as an art dependent on personal skills such as memory and conjecture, was taught with the aid of the liberal arts of rhetoric and logic. Scientific predictability was sought in branches of mathematics, moving from periodicity and numerology to astronomy. The search for certitude contributed to the cultivation of astrology; even at its peak, however, astrological medicine did not dominate the teaching on prognostication. The ultimate concern, which awaits further discussion, was not even with forecasting as such, but with the physician and, indeed, the patient. PMID:14657583

  10. Platelet activation risk index as a prognostic thrombosis indicator.

    PubMed

    Zlobina, K E; Guria, G Th

    2016-01-01

    Platelet activation in blood flow under high, overcritical shear rates is initiated by Von Willebrand factor. Despite the large amount of experimental data that have been obtained, the value of the critical shear rate, above which von Willebrand factor starts to activate platelets, is still controversial. Here, we recommend a theoretical approach to elucidate how the critical blood shear rate is dependent on von Willebrand factor size. We derived a diagram of platelet activation according to the shear rate and von Willebrand factor multimer size. We succeeded in deriving an explicit formula for the dependence of the critical shear rate on von Willebrand factor molecule size. The platelet activation risk index was introduced. This index is dependent on the flow conditions, number of monomers in von Willebrand factor, and platelet sensitivity. Probable medical applications of the platelet activation risk index as a universal prognostic index are discussed. PMID:27461235

  11. Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Progression: Prognostic Factors and Basic Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Sirica, Alphonse E.; Dumur, Catherine I.; Campbell, Deanna J. W.; Almenara, Jorge A.; Ogunwobi, Olorunseun O.; Dewitt, Jennifer L.

    2013-01-01

    In this review, we will examine various molecular biomarkers for their potential to serve as independent prognostic factors for predicting survival outcome in postoperative patients with progressive intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Specific rodent models of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma that mimic relevant cellular, molecular, and clinical features of the human disease are also described, not only in terms of their usefulness in identifying molecular pathways and mechanisms linked to cholangiocarcinoma development and progression, but also for their potential value as preclinical platforms for suggesting and testing novel molecular strategies for cholangiocarcinoma therapy. Last, recent studies aimed at addressing the role of desmoplastic stroma in promoting intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma progression are highlighted in an effort to underline the potential value of targeting tumor stromal components together with that of cholangiocarcinoma cells as a novel therapeutic option for this devastating cancer. PMID:19896103

  12. RON is not a prognostic marker for resectable pancreatic cancer

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The receptor tyrosine kinase RON exhibits increased expression during pancreatic cancer progression and promotes migration, invasion and gemcitabine resistance of pancreatic cancer cells in experimental models. However, the prognostic significance of RON expression in pancreatic cancer is unknown. Methods RON expression was characterized in several large cohorts, including a prospective study, totaling 492 pancreatic cancer patients and relationships with patient outcome and clinico-pathologic variables were assessed. Results RON expression was associated with outcome in a training set, but this was not recapitulated in the validation set, nor was there any association with therapeutic responsiveness in the validation set or the prospective study. Conclusions Although RON is implicated in pancreatic cancer progression in experimental models, and may constitute a therapeutic target, RON expression is not associated with prognosis or therapeutic responsiveness in resected pancreatic cancer. PMID:22958871

  13. Prognostics and Life Beyond 60 for Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Leonard J. Bond; Pradeep Ramuhalli; Magdy S. Tawfik; Nancy J. Lybeck

    2011-06-01

    Safe, secure, reliable and sustainable energy supply is vital for advanced and industrialized life styles. To meet growing energy demand there is interest in longer term operation (LTO) for the existing nuclear power plant fleet and enhancing capabilities in new build. There is increasing use of condition based maintenance (CBM) for active components and periodic in service inspection (ISI) for passive systems: there is growing interest in deploying on-line monitoring. Opportunities exist to move beyond monitoring and diagnosis based on pattern recognition and anomaly detection to and prognostics with the ability to provide an estimate of remaining useful life (RUL). The adoption of digital I&C systems provides a framework within which added functionality including on-line monitoring can be deployed, and used to maintain and even potentially enhance safety, while at the same time improving planning and reducing both operations and maintenance costs.

  14. Prognostic genetic signatures in upper tract urothelial carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Li, Qiang; Bagrodia, Aditya; Cha, Eugene K.; Coleman, Jonathan A.

    2016-01-01

    Urothelial carcinoma is a highly heterogeneous disease that can arise throughout the entire urothelial lining from the renal pelvis to the proximal urethra. Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is rare and while it shares many similarities with urothelial carcinoma of bladder (UCB), there are also significant differences between UTUC and UCB regarding clinical management and outcomes. No major advances have been made recently in the development of new systemic therapies for urothelial carcinoma, partly due to the lack of understanding of underlying molecular pathogenetic mechanisms. In the past decade, the emergence of next-generation sequencing has greatly enabled genomic characterization of tumor samples. Researchers are currently exploring a personalized approach to augment traditional clinical decision-making based on genetic alterations. In the present review, we summarize current genomic advances in UTUC and discuss the potential implications of these developments for developing prognostic and predictive biomarkers. PMID:26757906

  15. Expression and prognostic significance of unique ULBPs in pancreatic cancer

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jiong; Zhu, Xing-Xing; Xu, Hong; Fang, Heng-Zhong; Zhao, Jin-Qian

    2016-01-01

    Background Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide, due to the lack of efficient therapy and difficulty in early diagnosis. ULBPs have been shown to behave as important protectors with prognostic significance in various cancers. Materials and methods Immunohistochemistry and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to explore the expression of ULBPs in cancer tissue and in serum, while survival analysis was used to evaluate the subsequent clinical value of ULBPs. Results Statistics showed that high expression of membrane ULBP1 was a good biomarker of overall survival (18 months vs 13 months), and a high level of soluble ULBP2 was deemed an independent poor indicator for both overall survival (P<0.001) and disease-free survival (P<0.001). Conclusion ULBP1 provides additional information for early diagnosis, and soluble ULBP2 can be used as a novel tumor marker to evaluate the risk of pancreatic cancer patients. PMID:27621649

  16. Clinicopathological prognostic and theranostic markers in pituitary tumors.

    PubMed

    Vasiljevic, Alexandre; Jouanneau, Emmanuel; Trouillas, Jacqueline; Raverot, Gérald

    2016-09-01

    More than just the confirmation of an endocrinological diagnosis, the pathological analysis of pituitary endocrine tumors may contribute to bring crucial information in prognosis as well as useful insights in therapeutic management. Taken individually, parameters such as histopathological subtyping, Ki-67-labelling or P53 immunoexpression cannot accurately predict the outcome of patients affected by such tumors. Conversely, "mixed" classification integrating invasion assessment by imaging to histopathological diagnosis may give critical prognostic information and help the clinician in identifying those aggressive tumors that will require a careful follow-up and a more vigorous postoperative treatment. Analysis of theranostic factors such as O6-methylguanine-DNA methyl-transferase or somatostatin receptor expression may guide the choice of postoperative treatment. PMID:26940458

  17. Statistical tools for prognostics and health management of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, David H; Huzurbazar, Aparna V; Anderson - Cook, Christine M

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is increasingly important for understanding and managing today's complex systems. These systems are typically mission- or safety-critical, expensive to replace, and operate in environments where reliability and cost-effectiveness are a priority. We present background on PHM and a suite of applicable statistical tools and methods. Our primary focus is on predicting future states of the system (e.g., the probability of being operational at a future time, or the expected remaining system life) using heterogeneous data from a variety of sources. We discuss component reliability models incorporating physical understanding, condition measurements from sensors, and environmental covariates; system reliability models that allow prediction of system failure time distributions from component failure models; and the use of Bayesian techniques to incorporate expert judgments into component and system models.

  18. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

  19. Can rheologic variables be of prognostic relevance in arteriosclerotic diseases?

    PubMed

    Resch, K L; Ernst, E; Matrai, A; Buhl, M; Schlosser, P; Paulsen, H F

    1991-12-01

    The hypothesis that blood rheology is of prognostic value in patients with arteriosclerotic diseases was tested in a prospective study of 843 patients at a rehabilitation clinic. They were tested for blood serum and plasma viscosity, hematocrit, fibrinogen, red cell aggregation and deformability, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, white cell count, cholesterol, and triglycerides. End points were defined as a second stroke or myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death within two years of the initial examination. Patients suffering such end points as compared with matched pairs (n = 74; matching criteria: identical manifestation of arteriosclerosis, identical sex and similar age and risk factors) had significantly higher native blood viscosity (p = 0.002), red cell aggregation (p = 0.01), serum viscosity (p = 0.01), fibrinogen (p = 0.02), and cholesterol (p = 0.01). It is concluded that rheologic factors are associated with the prognosis in patients with arteriosclerotic diseases. PMID:1763830

  20. [Prevalence and prognostic meaning of comorbidity in heart failure].

    PubMed

    Conde-Martel, A; Hernández-Meneses, M

    2016-05-01

    Heart failure (HF) predominantly affects elderly individuals and has a significant impact on the health systems of developed countries. Comorbidities are present in most patients with HF by acting as the cause, the consequence or a mere coincidence. In addition to their high prevalence, they have considerable relevance because they can mask symptoms, impede the diagnosis and treatment, contribute to progression and negatively influence the prognosis of HF. Most of the associated comorbidities result in a greater number of hospitalisations, poorer quality of life and increased mortality. Given that many of these comorbidities are underdiagnosed, their detection could improve the outcome and quality of life of patients with HF. This article reviews the prevalence and prognostic meaning of the most prevalent comorbidities associated with HF. PMID:26455791

  1. Platelet activation risk index as a prognostic thrombosis indicator

    PubMed Central

    Zlobina, K. E.; Guria, G. Th.

    2016-01-01

    Platelet activation in blood flow under high, overcritical shear rates is initiated by Von Willebrand factor. Despite the large amount of experimental data that have been obtained, the value of the critical shear rate, above which von Willebrand factor starts to activate platelets, is still controversial. Here, we recommend a theoretical approach to elucidate how the critical blood shear rate is dependent on von Willebrand factor size. We derived a diagram of platelet activation according to the shear rate and von Willebrand factor multimer size. We succeeded in deriving an explicit formula for the dependence of the critical shear rate on von Willebrand factor molecule size. The platelet activation risk index was introduced. This index is dependent on the flow conditions, number of monomers in von Willebrand factor, and platelet sensitivity. Probable medical applications of the platelet activation risk index as a universal prognostic index are discussed. PMID:27461235

  2. Prognostics and Life Beyond 60 Years for Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Leonard J.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Tawfik, Magdy; Lybeck, Nancy

    2011-09-23

    Safe, secure, reliable and sustainable energy supply is vital for advanced and industrialized life styles. To meet growing energy demand there is interest in longer term operation (LTO) for the existing nuclear power plant fleet and enhancing capabilities in new build. There is increasing use of condition based maintenance (CBM) for active components and growing interest in deploying on-line monitoring instead of periodic in service inspection (ISI) for passive systems. Opportunities exist to move beyond monitoring and diagnosis based on pattern recognition and anomaly detection to prognostics with the ability to provide an estimate of remaining useful life (RUL). The adoption of digital I&C systems provides a framework within which added functionality including on-line monitoring can be deployed, and used to maintain and even potentially enhance safety, while at the same time improving planning and reducing both operations and maintenance costs.

  3. Development and basic evaluation of a prognostic aerosol scheme in the CNRM Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michou, M.; Nabat, P.; Saint-Martin, D.

    2014-09-01

    We have implemented a prognostic aerosol scheme in the CNRM-GAME/CERFACS climate model, based upon the GEMS/MACC aerosol module of the ECMWF operational forecast model. This scheme describes the physical evolution of the five main types of aerosols, namely black carbon, organic matter, sulfate, desert dust and sea-salt. In this work, we describe the specificities of our implementation, for instance, taking into consideration a different dust scheme or boosting biomass burning emissions by a factor of 2, as well as the evaluation performed on simulation outputs. The simulations consist of 2004 conditions and transient runs over the 1993-2012 period, and are either free-running or nudged towards the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Evaluation data sets include several satellite instrument AOD products (i.e., MODIS Aqua classic and Deep-Blue products, MISR and CALIOP products), as well as ground-based AERONET data and the derived AERONET climatology, MAC-v1. The internal variability of the model has little impact on the seasonal climatology of the AODs of the various aerosols, and the characteristics of a nudged simulation reflect those of a free-running simulation. In contrast, the impact of the new dust scheme is large, with modelled dust AODs from simulations with the new dust scheme close to observations. Overall patterns and seasonal cycles of the total AOD are well depicted with, however, a systematic low bias over oceans. The comparison to the fractional MAC-v1 AOD climatology shows disagreements mostly over continents, while that to AERONET sites outlines the capability of the model to reproduce monthly climatologies under very diverse dominant aerosol types. Here again, underestimation of the total AOD appears in several cases, linked sometimes to insufficient efficiency of the aerosol transport away from the aerosol sources. Analysis of monthly time series at 166 AERONET sites shows, in general, correlation coefficients higher than 0.5 and lower model variance than

  4. Clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of primary gastric lymphoma: A retrospective study with 165 cases.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yi-Gao; Zhao, Lin-Yong; Liu, Chuan-Qi; Pan, Si-Cheng; Chen, Xiao-Long; Liu, Kai; Zhang, Wei-Han; Yang, Kun; Chen, Xin-Zu; Zhang, Bo; Chen, Zhi-Xin; Chen, Jia-Ping; Zhou, Zong-Guang; Hu, Jian-Kun

    2016-08-01

    Primary gastric lymphoma (PGL) is the most common extranodal non-Hodgkin lymphoma. This retrospective study aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics, prognostic factors, and roles of different treatment modalities in patients with PGL.From January 2003 to November 2014, 165 patients who were diagnosed with PGL at West China Hospital were enrolled in this study. The clinical features, treatment, and follow-up information were analyzed.In this study, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (108, 65.5%) and mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma (52, 31.5%) were two predominant histological subtypes. One-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of all patients were 95.2% and 79.5%, respectively; in whom 110 (66.7%) underwent surgery, 110 (66.7%) received chemotherapy, 12 (7.3%) received radiotherapy, and 10 (6.1%) received Helicobacter pylori eradication. And 75 patients (45.5%) were treated with at least 2 different types of therapies. Elevated lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, poor performance status (PS), advanced stage, International Prognostic Index (IPI) score ≥3, conservative treatment, and high-grade histological subtype were associated with worse prognosis in univariate analysis. Cox regression analysis showed that LDH levels, PS, staging, and histological subtype were independent predictors of survival outcomes. In the DLBCL type, 5-year OS was significantly better in the surgically treated group (80.1%) than that of patients conservatively treated (49.8%) (P = 0.001). Surgical treatment had almost no impact on OS in the MALT type than conservative treatment (P = 0.597). The proportion of patients received conservative treatment increased from 4.5% in period 1 to 51.7% in period 4.High LDH levels, poor PS, advanced staging, and malignant pathological type at diagnosis are significantly associated with poor OS. Our data suggest that surgery is superior in prognosis over conservative treatment in the DLBCL type, but not in the MALT

  5. Prognostic value of quantitative high-speed myocardial perfusion imaging

    PubMed Central

    Nakazato, Ryo; Berman, Daniel S.; Gransar, Heidi; Hyun, Mark; Miranda-Peats, Romalisa; Kite, Faith C.; Hayes, Sean W.; Thomson, Louise E.J.; Friedman, John D.; Rozanski, Alan; Slomka, Piotr J.

    2012-01-01

    Background Most studies have reported using semi-quantitative analysis to assess the prognostic utility of SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI). Thus we studied the prognostic value of fully automated quantitative analysis software applied to new solid-state, high-speed (HS) SPECT-MPI. Methods 1613 consecutive patients undergoing exercise or adenosine HS-MPI were followed for 2.6±0.5 years for all-cause mortality (ACM). Automated quantitative software was used for assessing stress total perfusion deficit (sTPD) and was compared to semi-quantitative visual analysis. MPI was characterized as 0% (normal); 1–4% (minimal perfusion defect); 5–10% (mildly abnormal); and >10% (moderately/severely abnormal). Results During follow-up, 79 patients died (4.9%). Annualized ACM increased with progressively increasing sTPD; 0% (0.87%), 1–4% (1.94%), 5–10% (3.10%) and >10% (5.33%) (log-rank p<0.0001). While similar overall findings were observed with visual analysis, only sTPD demonstrated increased risk in patients with minimal perfusion defects. In multivariable analysis, sTPD >10% was a mortality predictor (HR 3.03, 95% CI 1.30–7.09, p=0.01). Adjusted mortality rate was substantial in adenosine MPI, but low in exercise MPI (9.0% versus 1.0%, p<0.0001). Conclusions By quantitative analysis, ACM increases with increasing perfusion abnormality among patients undergoing stress HS-MPI. These findings confirm previous results obtained with visual analysis using conventional Anger camera imaging systems. PMID:23065414

  6. Connecting Prognostic Ligand Receptor Signaling Loops in Advanced Ovarian Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Eng, Kevin H.; Ruggeri, Christina

    2014-01-01

    Understanding cancer cell signal transduction is a promising lead for uncovering therapeutic targets and building treatment-specific markers for epithelial ovarian cancer. To brodaly assay the many known transmembrane receptor systems, previous studies have employed gene expression data measured on high-throughput microarrays. Starting with the knowledge of validated ligand-receptor pairs (LRPs), these studies postulate that correlation of the two genes implies functional autocrine signaling. It is our goal to consider the additional weight of evidence that prognosis (progression-free survival) can bring to prioritize ovarian cancer specific signaling mechanism. We survey three large studies of epithelial ovarian cancers, with gene expression measurements and clinical information, by modeling survival times both categorically (long/short survival) and continuously. We use differential correlation and proportional hazards regression to identify sets of LRPs that are both prognostic and correlated. Of 475 candidate LRPs, 77 show reproducible evidence of correlation; 55 show differential correlation. Survival models identify 16 LRPs with reproduced, significant interactions. Only two pairs show both interactions and correlation (PDGFAPDGFRA and COL1A1CD44) suggesting that the majority of prognostically useful LRPs act without positive feedback. We further assess the connectivity of receptors using a Gaussian graphical model finding one large graph and a number of smaller disconnected networks. These LRPs can be organized into mutually exclusive signaling clusters suggesting different mechanisms apply to different patients. We conclude that a mix of autocrine and endocrine LRPs influence prognosis in ovarian cancer, there exists a heterogenous mix of signaling themes across patients, and we point to a number of novel applications of existing targeted therapies which may benefit ovarian cancer. PMID:25244152

  7. Prognostically Distinctive Subgroup in Pathologic N3 Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Yun Yeong; Lee, Kyung Hee; Kim, Kwan Il; Chun, Yong Soon

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate whether there are prognostically different subgroups among patients with pathologic N3 (pN3) breast cancer. Methods The records of 220 patients who underwent surgery for pN3 breast cancer from January 2006 to September 2012 were reviewed. All patients received adjuvant therapy according to standard protocols. The primary outcome was disease-free survival (DFS). Results Patients were followed for a median time of 68.3 months after their primary surgery (range, 10–122 months), during which time 75 patients (34.1%) had developed disease recurrence and 48 patients (21.8%) had died. The DFS and overall survival were 67.8% and 86.1%, respectively, at 5 years. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that young age (<35 years, p=0.009), high serum neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (>3.0) (p=0.020), high nodal ratio (number of metastatic lymph nodes divided by number of removed nodes) (>0.65) (p=0.062), and molecular phenotype (p=0.012) were significantly associated with tumor recurrence. Tumor biological subtype was the most significant predictor of recurrence. The 5-year DFS rates in patients with hormone receptor (HR) positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) negative, HR+HER2+, HR–HER2+, and triple negative subtypes were 82%, 63%, 58%, and 37%, respectively. Conclusion Clinical outcomes of patients with extensive nodal metastasis were heterogeneous in terms of prognosis. Tumor biological subtype was the most important prognostic factor for pN3 disease. The prognosis of patients with HR+HER2– subtype in pN3 breast cancer was similar to that of patients with stage II breast cancer. PMID:27382392

  8. Expression and prognostic significance of apolipoprotein D in breast cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Díez-Itza, I.; Vizoso, F.; Merino, A. M.; Sánchez, L. M.; Tolivia, J.; Fernández, J.; Ruibal, A.; López-Otín, C.

    1994-01-01

    Apolipoprotein D (apo D) is a glycoprotein involved in the human plasma lipid transport system and present at large amounts in cyst fluid from women with gross cystic disease of the breast. Apo D expression in breast carcinomas was examined by immunoperoxidase staining of a series of 163 tumors. A total of 60 (36.8%) tumors were negative for apo D immunostaining, 28 (17.2%) carcinomas were weakly positive, 33 (20.2%) were moderately stained, whereas the remaining 42 (25.8%) tumors were strongly stained with the specific antibodies. No significant correlation was found between apo D content and tumor size, lymph node involvement, or biochemical parameters such as estrogen receptors, cathepsin D, or pS2 protein. However, the finding of a significant association between apo D and menopausal status of patients or differentiation grade of tumors, with apo D values being lower in tumors from premenopausal women or in poorly differentiated carcinomas, suggested a potential value of this glycoprotein as a prognostic factor in breast cancer. Preliminary analysis of relapse-free survival and overall survival in a subgroup of 152 women with a mean follow-up of 42 months confirmed that low apo D values were significantly associated to a shorter relapse-free survival and poorer survival. According to these data, we propose that apo D in combination with other well-established prognostic factors may contribute to more accurately identify subgroups of breast cancer patients with low or high risk for relapse and death. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 PMID:8311115

  9. Cytokines and Prognostic Factors in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Jammal, Millena Prata; Martins-Filho, Agrimaldo; Silveira, Thales Parenti; Murta, Eddie Fernando Candido; Nomelini, Rosekeila Simões

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Ovarian cancer has a high mortality and delayed diagnosis. Inflammation is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, and the inflammatory response is involved in almost all stages of tumor development. Immunohistochemical staining in stroma and epithelium of a panel of cytokines in benign and malignant ovarian neoplasm was evaluated. In addition, immunostaining was related to prognostic factors in malignant tumors. METHOD The study group comprised 28 ovarian benign neoplasias and 28 ovarian malignant neoplasms. A panel of cytokines was evaluated by immunohistochemistry (Th1: IL-2 and IL-8; Th2: IL-5, IL-6, and IL-10; and TNFR1). Chi-square test with Yates’ correction was used, which was considered significant if less than 0.05. RESULTS TNFR1, IL-5, and IL-10 had more frequent immunostaining 2/3 in benign neoplasms compared with malignant tumors. Malignant tumors had more frequent immunostaining 2/3 for IL-2 in relation to benign tumors. The immunostaining 0/1 of IL 8 was more frequent in the stroma of benign neoplasms compared with malignant neoplasms. Evaluation of the ovarian cancer stroma showed that histological grade 3 was significantly correlated with staining 2/3 for IL-2 (P = 0.004). Women whose disease-free survival was less than 2.5 years had TNFR1 stromal staining 2/3 (P = 0.03) more frequently. CONCLUSION IL-2 and TNFR1 stromal immunostaining are related prognostic factors in ovarian cancer and can be the target of new therapeutic strategies. PMID:27512342

  10. Data Fusion for Enhanced Aircraft Engine Prognostics and Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Volponi, Al

    2005-01-01

    Aircraft gas-turbine engine data is available from a variety of sources, including on-board sensor measurements, maintenance histories, and component models. An ultimate goal of Propulsion Health Management (PHM) is to maximize the amount of meaningful information that can be extracted from disparate data sources to obtain comprehensive diagnostic and prognostic knowledge regarding the health of the engine. Data fusion is the integration of data or information from multiple sources for the achievement of improved accuracy and more specific inferences than can be obtained from the use of a single sensor alone. The basic tenet underlying the data/ information fusion concept is to leverage all available information to enhance diagnostic visibility, increase diagnostic reliability and reduce the number of diagnostic false alarms. This report describes a basic PHM data fusion architecture being developed in alignment with the NASA C-17 PHM Flight Test program. The challenge of how to maximize the meaningful information extracted from disparate data sources to obtain enhanced diagnostic and prognostic information regarding the health and condition of the engine is the primary goal of this endeavor. To address this challenge, NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, and Pratt & Whitney have formed a team with several small innovative technology companies to plan and conduct a research project in the area of data fusion, as it applies to PHM. Methodologies being developed and evaluated have been drawn from a wide range of areas including artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, statistical estimation, and fuzzy logic. This report will provide a chronology and summary of the work accomplished under this research contract.

  11. Prognostic Value of Posteromedial Cortex Deactivation in Mild Cognitive Impairment

    PubMed Central

    Petrella, Jeffrey R.; Prince, Steven E.; Wang, Lihong; Hellegers, Caroline; Doraiswamy, P. Murali

    2007-01-01

    Background Normal subjects deactivate specific brain regions, notably the posteromedial cortex (PMC), during many tasks. Recent cross-sectional functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data suggests that deactivation during memory tasks is impaired in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The goal of this study was to prospectively determine the prognostic significance of PMC deactivation in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methodology/Principal Findings 75 subjects (34 MCI, 13 AD subjects and 28 controls) underwent baseline fMRI scanning during encoding of novel and familiar face-name pairs. MCI subjects were followed longitudinally to determine conversion to AD. Regression and analysis of covariance models were used to assess the effect of PMC activation/deactivation on conversion to dementia as well as in the longitudinal change in dementia measures. At longitudinal follow up of up to 3.5 years (mean 2.5±0.79 years), 11 MCI subjects converted to AD. The proportion of deactivators was significantly different across all groups: controls (79%), MCI-Nonconverters (73%), MCI-converters (45%), and AD (23%) (p<0.05). Mean PMC activation magnitude parameter estimates, at baseline, were negative in the control (−0.57±0.12) and MCI-Nonconverter (−0.33±0.14) groups, and positive in the MCI-Converter (0.37±0.40) and AD (0.92±0.30) groups. The effect of diagnosis on PMC deactivation remained significant after adjusting for age, education and baseline Mini-Mental State Exam (p<0.05). Baseline PMC activation magnitude was correlated with change in dementia ratings from baseline. Conclusion Loss of physiological functional deactivation in the PMC may have prognostic value in preclinical AD, and could aid in profiling subgroups of MCI subjects at greatest risk for progressive cognitive decline. PMID:17971867

  12. Increased Expression of PHGDH and Prognostic Significance in Colorectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Jia, Xiao-Qin; Zhang, Shu; Zhu, Hui-Jun; Wang, Wei; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Wang, Xu-Dong; Qiang, Jian-Feng

    2016-06-01

    Phosphoglycerate dehydrogenase (PHGDH) plays an essential role in cancer-specific metabolic reprogramming. It has been reported as a putative metabolic oncogene in several types of human malignant tumors, such as breast cancer and melanoma. To date, PHGDH expression in colorectal cancer (CRC) as well as its association with clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic implication remain undetermined. In this study, we determined the PHGDH protein expression using tissue microarray immunohistochemistry (TMA-IHC) on 193 pairs of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens of CRC and adjacent tissues, 25 chronic colitis, 41 low-, and 19 high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia specimens, and we also determined PHGDH mRNA level using quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) on additional 23 pairs of fresh CRC tissues and adjacent tissues. We found that both PHGDH mRNA and protein was highly expressed in tumor tissues in comparison with matched adjacent non-tumor tissues, and high PHGDH protein expression was correlated with advanced TNM stage (P = .038) and larger tumor (P = .001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that PHGDH protein expression (HR = 2.285, 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.41, P = .014), tumor differentiation (HR = .307, 95% CI = .154 to 0.609, P = .001), and TNM stage (HR = 1.791, 95% CI = 1.125 to 2.85, P = .014) were independent prognostic factors in CRC. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log rank test showed that high PHGDH protein expression contributed to poor outcome in CRC patients (P < .001). In conclusion, these results suggest that assessment of PHGDH expression could be useful in identifying a high-risk subgroup of CRC. PMID:27267836

  13. Microvessel density is a prognostic marker of human gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Hong-Chuan; Qin, Rong; Chen, Xiao-Xin; Sheng, Xia; Wu, Ji-Feng; Wang, Dao-Bin; Chen, Gui-Hua

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To investigate whether microvessel density (MVD) is related with prognosis in gastric cancer patients, and the expression of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and vessel endothelial growth factor (VEGF) so as to determine the possible role of COX-2 and VEGF in gastric cancer angiogenesis. METHODS: Forty-seven formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples of gastric cancer were evaluated for COX-2, VEGF by immunohistochemical staining. To assess tumor angiogenesis, MVD was determined by immunohistochemical staining of endothelial protein factor VIII-related antigen. The relationship among COX-2 and VEGF expression, MVD, and clinicopathologic parameters was analyzed. RESULTS: Among the 67 samples, high MVD was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis and poor survival. Multivariate survival analysis showed that MVD value and lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic factors. The expression rate of COX-2 and VEGF was significantly higher than that of the adjacent tissues. COX-2 and VEGF expression in gastric cancer was significantly correlated with tumor differentiation and depth of invasion, but not with survival. The mean MVD value of COX-2 or VEGF positive tumors was higher than that of COX-2 or VEGF negative tumors. A significant correlation was found between the expressions of COX-2 and VEGF. CONCLUSION: MVD may be one of the important prognostic factors for gastric cancer patients. COX-2 and VEGF may play an important role in tumor progression by stimulating angiogenesis. VEGF might play a main role in the COX-2 angiogenic pathway. The inhibition of angiogenesis or COX-2, VEGF activity may have an important therapeutic benefit in the control of gastric cancer. PMID:17171787

  14. Biomarker-based prognostic stratification of young adult glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Rui-Qi; Shi, Zhifeng; Chen, Hong; Chung, Nellie Yuk-Fei; Yin, Zi; Li, Kay Ka-Wai; Chan, Danny Tat-Ming; Poon, Wai Sang; Wu, Jinsong; Zhou, Liangfu; Chan, Aden Ka-Yin; Mao, Ying; Ng, Ho-Keung

    2016-01-26

    While the predominant elderly and the pediatric glioblastomas have been extensively investigated, young adult glioblastomas were understudied. In this study, we sought to stratify young adult glioblastomas by BRAF, H3F3A and IDH1 mutations and examine the clinical relevance of the biomarkers. In 107 glioblastomas aged from 17 to 35 years, mutually exclusive BRAF-V600E (15%), H3F3A-K27M (15.9%), H3F3A-G34R/V (2.8%) and IDH1-R132H (16.8%) mutations were identified in over half of the cases. EGFR amplification and TERTp mutation were only detected in 3.7% and 8.4% in young adult glioblastomas, respectively. BRAF-V600E identified a clinically favorable subset of glioblastomas with younger age, frequent CDKN2A homozygous deletion, and was more amendable to surgical resection. H3F3A-K27M mutated glioblastomas were tightly associated with midline locations and showed dismal prognosis. IDH1-R132H was associated with older age and favorable outcome. Interestingly, tumors with positive PDGFRA immunohistochemical expression exhibited poorer prognosis and identified an aggressive subset of tumors among K27M mutated glioblastomas. Combining BRAF, H3F3A and IDH1 mutations allowed stratification of young adult glioblastomas into four prognostic subgroups. In summary, our study demonstrates the clinical values of stratifying young adult glioblastomas with BRAF, H3F3A and IDH1 mutations, which has important implications in refining prognostic classification of glioblastomas. PMID:26452024

  15. Biomarker-based prognostic stratification of young adult glioblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Hong; Chung, Nellie Yuk-Fei; Yin, Zi; Li, Kay Ka-Wai; Chan, Danny Tat-Ming; Poon, Wai Sang; Wu, Jinsong; Zhou, Liangfu; Chan, Aden Ka-yin; Mao, Ying; Ng, Ho-Keung

    2016-01-01

    While the predominant elderly and the pediatric glioblastomas have been extensively investigated, young adult glioblastomas were understudied. In this study, we sought to stratify young adult glioblastomas by BRAF, H3F3A and IDH1 mutations and examine the clinical relevance of the biomarkers. In 107 glioblastomas aged from 17 to 35 years, mutually exclusive BRAF-V600E (15%), H3F3A-K27M (15.9%), H3F3A-G34R/V (2.8%) and IDH1-R132H (16.8%) mutations were identified in over half of the cases. EGFR amplification and TERTp mutation were only detected in 3.7% and 8.4% in young adult glioblastomas, respectively. BRAF-V600E identified a clinically favorable subset of glioblastomas with younger age, frequent CDKN2A homozygous deletion, and was more amendable to surgical resection. H3F3A-K27M mutated glioblastomas were tightly associated with midline locations and showed dismal prognosis. IDH1-R132H was associated with older age and favorable outcome. Interestingly, tumors with positive PDGFRA immunohistochemical expression exhibited poorer prognosis and identified an aggressive subset of tumors among K27M mutated glioblastomas. Combining BRAF, H3F3A and IDH1 mutations allowed stratification of young adult glioblastomas into four prognostic subgroups. In summary, our study demonstrates the clinical values of stratifying young adult glioblastomas with BRAF, H3F3A and IDH1 mutations, which has important implications in refining prognostic classification of glioblastomas. PMID:26452024

  16. Physics-based prognostic modelling of filter clogging phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eker, Omer F.; Camci, Fatih; Jennions, Ian K.

    2016-06-01

    In industry, contaminant filtration is a common process to achieve a desired level of purification, since contaminants in liquids such as fuel may lead to performance drop and rapid wear propagation. Generally, clogging of filter phenomena is the primary failure mode leading to the replacement or cleansing of filter. Cascading failures and weak performance of the system are the unfortunate outcomes due to a clogged filter. Even though filtration and clogging phenomena and their effects of several observable parameters have been studied for quite some time in the literature, progression of clogging and its use for prognostics purposes have not been addressed yet. In this work, a physics based clogging progression model is presented. The proposed model that bases on a well-known pressure drop equation is able to model three phases of the clogging phenomena, last of which has not been modelled in the literature yet. In addition, the presented model is integrated with particle filters to predict the future clogging levels and to estimate the remaining useful life of fuel filters. The presented model has been implemented on the data collected from an experimental rig in the lab environment. In the rig, pressure drop across the filter, flow rate, and filter mesh images are recorded throughout the accelerated degradation experiments. The presented physics based model has been applied to the data obtained from the rig. The remaining useful lives of the filters used in the experimental rig have been reported in the paper. The results show that the presented methodology provides significantly accurate and precise prognostic results.

  17. Remote sensing data assimilation for a prognostic phenology model

    SciTech Connect

    Thornton, Peter E; Stockli, Reto

    2008-01-01

    Predicting the global carbon and water cycle requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology in climate models. However most prognostic phenology models are not yet suited for global applications, and diagnostic satellite data can be uncertain and lack predictive power. We present a framework for data assimilation of Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to constrain empirical temperature, light, moisture and structural vegetation parameters of a prognostic phenology model. We find that data assimilation better constrains structural vegetation parameters than climate control parameters. Improvements are largest for drought-deciduous ecosystems where correlation of predicted versus satellite-observed FPAR and LAI increases from negative to 0.7-0.8. Data assimilation effectively overcomes the cloud- and aerosol-related deficiencies of satellite data sets in tropical areas. Validation with a 49-year-long phenology data set reveals that the temperature-driven start of season (SOS) is light limited in warm years. The model has substantial skill (R = 0.73) to reproduce SOS inter-annual and decadal variability. Predicted SOS shows a higher inter-annual variability with a negative bias of 5-20 days compared to species-level SOS. It is however accurate to within 1-2 days compared to SOS derived from net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measurements at a FLUXNET tower. The model only has weak skill to predict end of season (EOS). Use of remote sensing data assimilation for phenology model development is encouraged but validation should be extended with phenology data sets covering mediterranean, tropical and arctic ecosystems.

  18. External validation of the CRASH and IMPACT prognostic models in severe traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Han, Julian; King, Nicolas K K; Neilson, Sam J; Gandhi, Mihir P; Ng, Ivan

    2014-07-01

    An accurate prognostic model is extremely important in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) for both patient management and research. Clinical prediction models must be validated both internally and externally before they are considered widely applicable. Our aim is to independently externally validate two prediction models, one developed by the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury (CRASH) trial investigators, and the other from the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) group. We used a cohort of 300 patients with severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score [GCS] ≤8) consecutively admitted to the National Neuroscience Institute (NNI), Singapore, between February 2006 and December 2009. The CRASH models (base and CT) predict 14 day mortality and 6 month unfavorable outcome. The IMPACT models (core, extended, and laboratory) estimate 6 month mortality and unfavorable outcome. Validation was based on measures of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test and Cox calibration regression analysis. In the NNI database, the overall observed 14 day mortality was 47.7%, and the observed 6 month unfavorable outcome was 71.0%. The CRASH base model and all three IMPACT models gave an underestimate of the observed values in our cohort when used to predict outcome. Using the CRASH CT model, the predicted 14 day mortality of 46.6% approximated the observed outcome, whereas the predicted 6 month unfavorable outcome was an overestimate at 74.8%. Overall, both the CRASH and IMPACT models showed good discrimination, with AUCs ranging from 0.80 to 0.89, and good overall calibration. We conclude that both the CRASH and IMPACT models satisfactorily predicted outcome in our patients with severe TBI. PMID:24568201

  19. A New Multivariate Approach for Prognostics Based on Extreme Learning Machine and Fuzzy Clustering.

    PubMed

    Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2015-12-01

    Prognostics is a core process of prognostics and health management (PHM) discipline, that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of a degrading machinery to optimize its service delivery potential. However, machinery operates in a dynamic environment and the acquired condition monitoring data are usually noisy and subject to a high level of uncertainty/unpredictability, which complicates prognostics. The complexity further increases, when there is absence of prior knowledge about ground truth (or failure definition). For such issues, data-driven prognostics can be a valuable solution without deep understanding of system physics. This paper contributes a new data-driven prognostics approach namely, an "enhanced multivariate degradation modeling," which enables modeling degrading states of machinery without assuming a homogeneous pattern. In brief, a predictability scheme is introduced to reduce the dimensionality of the data. Following that, the proposed prognostics model is achieved by integrating two new algorithms namely, the summation wavelet-extreme learning machine and subtractive-maximum entropy fuzzy clustering to show evolution of machine degradation by simultaneous predictions and discrete state estimation. The prognostics model is equipped with a dynamic failure threshold assignment procedure to estimate RUL in a realistic manner. To validate the proposition, a case study is performed on turbofan engines data from PHM challenge 2008 (NASA), and results are compared with recent publications. PMID:25643420

  20. New Breast Cancer Recursive Partitioning Analysis Prognostic Index in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Brain Metastases

    SciTech Connect

    Niwinska, Anna; Murawska, Magdalena

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: The aim of the study was to present a new breast cancer recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) prognostic index for patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases as a guide in clinical decision making. Methods and Materials: A prospectively collected group of 441 consecutive patients with breast cancer and brain metastases treated between the years 2003 and 2009 was assessed. Prognostic factors significant for univariate analysis were included into RPA. Results: Three prognostic classes of a new breast cancer RPA prognostic index were selected. The median survival of patients within prognostic Classes I, II, and III was 29, 9, and 2.4 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Class I included patients with one or two brain metastases, without extracranial disease or with controlled extracranial disease, and with Karnofsky performance status (KPS) of 100. Class III included patients with multiple brain metastases with KPS of {<=}60. Class II included all other cases. Conclusions: The breast cancer RPA prognostic index is an easy and valuable tool for use in clinical practice. It can select patients who require aggressive treatment and those in whom whole-brain radiotherapy or symptomatic therapy is the most reasonable option. An individual approach is required for patients from prognostic Class II.

  1. Lipoprotein lipase expression is a novel prognostic factor in B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Nückel, Holger; Hüttmann, Andreas; Klein-Hitpass, Ludger; Schroers, Roland; Führer, Anja; Sellmann, Ludger; Dührsen, Ulrich; Dürig, Jan

    2006-06-01

    B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL) is a heterogenous disease with a highly variable clinical course. Recent studies have shown that expression of lipoprotein lipase (LPL) and ADAM29 may serve as novel prognostic markers in B-CLL. To investigate the prognostic value of these genes, we quantified their expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells using quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RQ-PCR) in a cohort of 133 B-CLL patients and correlated the results with clinical outcome, and other known prognostic factors. LPL, ADAM29, LPL and ADAM29 ratios, as well as CD38 and ZAP-70 protein expression determined by multiparameter flow cytometry, were predictive of treatment-free survival. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified LPL, ADAM29 and CD38 as independent prognostic markers. Evaluation of several disease characteristics in association with the LPL expression status of the patients' B-CLL cells showed highly significant differences for CD38 and ZAP-70 expression, suggesting a correlation of LPL expression with these established adverse prognostic factors. Sequential RQ-PCR analyses in a subset of 22 patients revealed that LPL mRNA expression was relatively stable in the majority of patients, whereas ADAM29 expression levels varied substantially over time. Furthermore, in a subgroup analysis, LPL provided prognostic information in both early stage (Binet A) and patients with more advanced disease (Binet B and C). Conversely, high ADAM29 expression was predictive of a long treatment-free interval in Binet stage A but did not retain its prognostic significance in Binet B and C patients. The LPL/ADAM29 expression ratio was not found to be an independent prognostic factor and did not offer any advantages over the use of LPL alone. Collectively, our data confirm a role for LPL as a novel prognostic indicator in B-CLL. PMID:16840197

  2. Prognostic value of graph theory-based tissue architecture analysis in carcinomas of the tongue.

    PubMed

    Sudbø, J; Bankfalvi, A; Bryne, M; Marcelpoil, R; Boysen, M; Piffko, J; Hemmer, J; Kraft, K; Reith, A

    2000-12-01

    Several studies on oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) suggest that the clinical value of traditional histologic grading is limited both by poor reproducibility and by low prognostic impact. However, the prognostic potential of a strictly quantitative and highly reproducible assessment of the tissue architecture in OSCC has not been evaluated. Using image analysis, in 193 cases of T1-2 (Stage I-II) OSCC we retrospectively investigated the prognostic impact of two graph theory-derived structural features: the average Delaunay Edge Length (DEL_av) and the average homogeneity of the Ulam Tree (ELH_av). Both structural features were derived from subgraphs of the Voronoi Diagram. The geometric centers of the cell nuclei were computed, generating a two-dimensional swarm of point-like seeds from which graphs could be constructed. The impact on survival of the computed values of ELH_av and DEL_av was estimated by the method of Kaplan and Meier, with relapse-free survival and overall survival as end-points. The prognostic values of DEL_av and ELH_av as computed for the invasive front, the superficial part of the carcinoma, the total carcinoma, and the normal-appearing oral mucosa were compared. For DEL_av, significant prognostic information was found in the invasive front (p < 0.001). No significant prognostic information was found in superficial part of the carcinoma (p = 0.34), in the carcinoma as a whole (p = 0.35), or in the normal-appearing mucosa (p = 0.27). For ELH_av, significant prognostic information was found in the invasive front (p = 0.01) and, surprisingly, in putatively normal mucosa (p = 0.03). No significant prognostic information was found in superficial parts of the carcinoma (p = 0.34) or in the total carcinoma (p = 0.11). In conclusion, strictly quantitative assessment of tissue architecture in the invasive front of OSCC yields highly prognostic information. PMID:11140700

  3. Internal shim

    DOEpatents

    Barth, Clyde H.; Blizinski, Theodore W.

    2003-05-13

    An internal shim used to accurately measure spaces in conjunction with a standard small probe has a shim top and a chassis. The internal shim is adjustably fixed within the space to be measured using grippers that emerge from the chassis and which are controlled by an arm pivotably attached to the shim top. A standard small probe passes through the shim along guides on the chassis and measures the distance between the exterior of the chassis and the boundary. By summing the measurements on each side of the chassis and the width of the chassis, the dimension of the space can be determined to within 0.001 inches.

  4. Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Hines, J. Wesley; Upadhyaya, Belle; Sharp, Michael; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Jeffries, Brien; Nam, Alan; Strong, Eric; Tong, Matthew; Welz, Zachary; Barbieri, Federico; Langford, Seth; Meinweiser, Gregory; Weeks, Matthew

    2014-11-06

    On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for

  5. International Entomology

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Pests and diseases of plants in agriculture are a shared international problem. Yet some of the very places that pest invaders come from often lack the institutional structure and organization necessary to help in understanding the biology of the pest or disease. Strengthening entomology by stimulat...

  6. International Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nicholson, R. Stephen

    In a world characterized by increasing global interdependence, the provision of international education programs must be an essential concern of the community college president. Frequently, these programs are considered too sophisticated for community college students or are misconceived as: (1) pleasure junkets; (2) strategies for increasing…

  7. International Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Havard-Williams, Peter

    1982-01-01

    Discussion of standardization on an international scale for resource sharing--cooperation, coordination, interlibrary loans, cooperative acquisition and cataloging--focuses on a definition of standards; the development of standards for cataloging; public, school, and university libraries; and library education. A 60-item bibliography is included.…

  8. International Reports.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tabb, Winston; Bender, David R.; Haycock, Ken; Horodyski, John

    2001-01-01

    Includes three annual reports: one from the International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions, the Special Libraries Association, and a report on innovations in Canadian libraries that discusses electronic initiatives, partnerships, books and publishing, school libraries, national issues, local challenges, and funding. (LRW)

  9. International Marketplace.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wells, Donald A.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    This issue begins with a conceptual introduction to economic specialization, exports and imports, and the importance of international trade. Four instructional units follow this introduction, beginning with a preschool and kindergarten unit called "Traders and Travelers," which involves young students in five activities that illustrate our…

  10. Predicting Overall Survival After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy in Early-Stage Lung Cancer: Development and External Validation of the Amsterdam Prognostic Model

    SciTech Connect

    Louie, Alexander V.; Haasbeek, Cornelis J.A.; Mokhles, Sahar; Rodrigues, George B.; Stephans, Kevin L.; Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Palma, David A.; Videtic, Gregory M.M.; Warner, Andrew; Takkenberg, Johanna J.M.; Reddy, Chandana A.; Maat, Alex P.W.M.; Woody, Neil M.; Slotman, Ben J.; Senan, Suresh

    2015-09-01

    Purpose: A prognostic model for 5-year overall survival (OS), consisting of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and a nomogram, was developed for patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR). Methods and Materials: A primary dataset of 703 ES-NSCLC SABR patients was randomly divided into a training (67%) and an internal validation (33%) dataset. In the former group, 21 unique parameters consisting of patient, treatment, and tumor factors were entered into an RPA model to predict OS. Univariate and multivariate models were constructed for RPA-selected factors to evaluate their relationship with OS. A nomogram for OS was constructed based on factors significant in multivariate modeling and validated with calibration plots. Both the RPA and the nomogram were externally validated in independent surgical (n=193) and SABR (n=543) datasets. Results: RPA identified 2 distinct risk classes based on tumor diameter, age, World Health Organization performance status (PS) and Charlson comorbidity index. This RPA had moderate discrimination in SABR datasets (c-index range: 0.52-0.60) but was of limited value in the surgical validation cohort. The nomogram predicting OS included smoking history in addition to RPA-identified factors. In contrast to RPA, validation of the nomogram performed well in internal validation (r{sup 2}=0.97) and external SABR (r{sup 2}=0.79) and surgical cohorts (r{sup 2}=0.91). Conclusions: The Amsterdam prognostic model is the first externally validated prognostication tool for OS in ES-NSCLC treated with SABR available to individualize patient decision making. The nomogram retained strong performance across surgical and SABR external validation datasets. RPA performance was poor in surgical patients, suggesting that 2 different distinct patient populations are being treated with these 2 effective modalities.

  11. A prognostic index for locoregional recurrence after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Herrero-Vicent, C; Guerrero-Zotano, A; Gavilá-Gregori, J; Hernández-Blanquisett, A; Sandiego-Contreras, S; Samper-Hiraldo, JM; Guillem-Porta, V; Ruiz-Simón, A

    2016-01-01

    Background The appropriate selection criteria for breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) are poorly defined. The aim of this study is to analyse the incidence and prognostic factors for locoregional recurrence (LRR) in patients with breast cancer (BC) treated with NAC to develop a prognostic score to help with clinical decision-making. Materials and methods Using our retrospective maintained BC database, we identified 730 patients treated with NAC (327 patients treated with BCS and 403 patients treated with mastectomy) between 1998 and 2014. To identify variables associated with an increased LRR rate, we performed firstly Kaplan–Meier curves, with comparisons among groups using log-rank test, and then, significant variables were included in a multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards. The prognostic index was developed by assigning score 0 (favourable) or score 1 (unfavourable) for each significant variable of multivariate analysis and was created separately for patients with BCS and mastectomy. Results At a median follow-up of 72 months, the 6-year cumulative incidence of LRR was 7.2% ( ± 3%) for BCS and 7.9% ( ± 3%) for mastectomy. By univariate analysis, variables associated with an increased LRR were for BCS: HER2 positive, grade III, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), No-pCR (ypTis, ypN0), and age < 40 years; and for mastectomy, HER2-positive, DCIS, No-pCR, and LVI. By multivariate analysis, variables associated with an increased LRR were for BCS: HER2 positive (HR: 11.1, p = 0.001), DCIS (HR: 3.1, p = 0.005), and age < 40 years (HR: 2.8, p = 0.02); and for mastectomy: HER2 positive (HR: 9.5, p = 0.03), DCIS (HR: 2.7, p = 0.01), No-pCR (HR: 11.4, p = 0.01), and age < 40 years (HR: 2.8, p = 0.006). The score stratified patients into three subsets with statistically different levels of risk for LRR. For BCS, the six-year LRR rates were 3%, 13%, and 33% for the low (score 0, n = 120), intermediate (score 1

  12. Hedgehog pathway aberrations and gastric cancer; evaluation of prognostic impact and exploration of therapeutic potentials.

    PubMed

    Abdel-Rahman, Omar

    2015-03-01

    Gastric cancer is an important cause for mortality and morbidity worldwide; it lies in the fourt rank as a cause of cancer-related death in males and in the fifth rank of cancer-related death in women. The prognosis of advanced/metastatic gastric cancer cases looks poor with the majority of available therapeutics. Thus, novel therapeutic strategies in this setting have been considered a priority for leading cooperative oncology groups. Hedgehog(Hh) pathway aberrations have sparked particular interest as prognostic markers with data from multiple studies showing consistent evidence of a poor prognostic value of Gli over expression in gastric cancer while on the other hand the prognostic significance of Hh protein over expression (particularly SHH) was not consistent among different studies. This review article revises the prognostic and potential therapeutic opportunities in the targeting of hedgehog pathway in gastric cancer. PMID:25680409

  13. An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Prognostics and Condition-Based Monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty quantification in prognostics in the context of condition-based monitoring of aerospace systems. The different sources of uncertainty and the various uncertainty quantification activities in condition-based prognostics are outlined in detail, and it is demonstrated that the Bayesian subjective approach is suitable for interpreting uncertainty in online monitoring. A state-space model-based framework for prognostics, that can rigorously account for the various sources of uncertainty, is presented. Prognostics consists of two important steps. First, the state of the system is estimated using Bayesian tracking, and then, the future states of the system are predicted until failure, thereby computing the remaining useful life of the system. The proposed framework is illustrated using the power system of a planetary rover test-bed, which is being developed and studied at NASA Ames Research Center.

  14. The prognostic value of non-perfusion variables obtained during vasodilator stress myocardial perfusion imaging.

    PubMed

    Bajaj, Navkaranbir S; Singh, Siddharth; Farag, Ayman; El-Hajj, Stephanie; Heo, Jack; Iskandrian, Ami E; Hage, Fadi G

    2016-06-01

    Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is an established diagnostic test that provides useful prognostic data in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease. In more than half of the patients referred for stress testing, vasodilator stress is used in lieu of exercise. Unlike exercise, vasodilator stress does not provide information on exercise and functional capacity, heart rate recovery, and chronotropy, and ECG changes are less frequent. These non-perfusion data provide important prognostic and patient management information. Further, event rates in patients undergoing vasodilator MPI are higher than in those undergoing exercise MPI and even in those with normal images probably due to higher pretest risk. However, there are a number of non-perfusion variables that are obtained during vasodilator stress testing, which have prognostic relevance but their use has not been well emphasized. The purpose of this review is to summarize the prognostic values of these non-perfusion data obtained during vasodilator MPI. PMID:26940574

  15. Comparison of prognostic and diagnostic surface flux modeling approaches over the Nile River Basin

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Regional evapotranspiration (ET) can be estimated using diagnostic remote sensing models, generally based on principles of energy balance, or with spatially distributed prognostic models that simultaneously balance both the energy and water budgets over landscapes using predictive equations for land...

  16. [Retrospective analysis of prognostic factors in patients with primary lymphoma of the intestine].

    PubMed

    Avilés, A; Guzmán, R; Huerta, J; Díaz-Maqueo, J C

    1991-01-01

    Forty-six patients with stage IE and IIE malignant lymphoma of the intestine were analyzed to assess the efficacy of prognostic factors to predict the course and therapeutic approach in these patients. Because the lesion was considered unresectable in all cases, chemotherapy was given after surgery. Using Cox's univariate regression analysis, survival was found to correlate with stage (IE vs IIE) and high levels of lactic dehidrogenase, nevertheless in the multivariate analysis only beta 2 microglobulin levels were associated with a shorter survival. We believe that treatment of extranodal lymphomas, like nodal presentations, as those of the intestine, could be based in the determinations of prognostic factors and that beta 2 microglobulin would be considered the most powerful prognostic factor. Most studies on patients with malignant lymphoma of the intestine are necessary to define the role of beta 2 microglobulin as therapeutic prognostic index. PMID:1810010

  17. Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

  18. Comparison of prognostic and diagnostic approached to modeling evapotranspiration in the Nile river basin

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Actual evapotranspiration (ET) can be estimated using both prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, providing independent yet complementary information for hydrologic applications. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. When provided with temporally continuous atmospheric forcing d...

  19. Prognostic factors of laryngeal solitary extramedullary plasmacytoma: a case report and review of literature

    PubMed Central

    Xing, Yong; Qiu, Jun; Zhou, Min-Li; Zhou, Shui-Hong; Bao, Yang-Yang; Wang, Qin-Ying; Zheng, Zhou-Jun

    2015-01-01

    A paucity of data exists concerning the presentation, natural course and outcome of extramedullary plasmcytoma (EMP). It is difficult to determine the optimal treatment strategy and prognostic factors for EMP. We present an additional case of laryngeal EMP and systemic review relevant reports in the English and Chinese literature. We found, to our knowledge, 147 cases in larynx in the English-language literature and Chinese-literature. The most common treatment modality was radiotherapy alone. The mean survival duration was ~184 months, and the 5- and 10- year survival rates were 76.1% and 67.4%, respectively. The univariate analysis suggested that progression to multiple myeloma and amyloid deposits may be poor prognostic factors. The multivariate analysis suggested that only progression to multiple myeloma may be a poor prognostic factor. Laryngeal EMP is uncommon. Progression to multiple myeloma may be a poor prognostic factor. PMID:26045749

  20. Prognostic significance of urinary NGAL in chronic kidney disease

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Munna Lal; Sachan, Rekha; Misra, Ravi; Kamal, Ritul; Shyam, Radhey; Sachan, Pushpalata

    2015-01-01

    Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a worldwide public health problem. Recently urinary NGAL (uNGAL) has been proven to be a useful (potentially ideal) biomarker for early detection of CKD. The aim of the present study was to examine the correlation of uNGAL with severity of renal impairment in CKD and to evaluate its prognostic value in these subjects. Methods This was a prospective study carried out over a period of 24 months in subjects with CKD due to primary chronic glomerulonephritis. New cases of CKD stage II, III, IV aged between 18 and 65 years were enrolled as per KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines 2012. A total of 90 subjects completed the study up to the end-point. The primary follow-up end-point was 18 months, or decreased glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min. Secondary follow-up end-point was the number of subjects who expired during this period. Results Multiple regression model of estimated glomerular filtration rate showed significant associations with log uNGAL (β=0.38, P<0.001), Ca×PO4 (β=0.60, P<0.001), hemoglobin (β=0.37, P<0.001), urine protein (β=0.34, P<0.001), serum albumin (β=0.48, P<0.001), and systolic blood pressure (β=0.76, P<0.001). Receiver operator curve for uNGAL considering the progression of CKD showed area under the curve for uNGAL was 0.878 (95% confidence interval: 0.68–0.96). Cut-off value for uNGAL was log 3.5 unit with a sensitivity of 93.08% and specificity of 71.43% for predicting the progression of CKD. Kaplan–Meier survival curve showed that patients with log uNGAL levels <3.51 unit had a survival rate of 71.4% while patients with NGAL level >3.51 unit had a renal survival rate of 14.7%. Conclusion Our study result showed that uNGAL has a positive correlation with disease severity which signifies the prognostic importance of uNGAL in CKD. PMID:26508883

  1. Construction of embedding for empirical prognostic models of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Empirical approach to modeling and forecasting complex dynamical systems becomes more and more popular in climate science because of two reasons: (i) not confidence reproducing and forecasting some of key climate modes by existing global climate models, and (ii) increasing number and duration of climatic time series which can be considered as a source of information about dynamical laws underlying observational variability. Such an approach is aimed to construction of prognostic models by way of direct analysis of data without involving any detailed physical equations. We developed a method for empirical modeling basing on reconstruction of prognostic evolution operator in a form of random dynamical system [1] - stochastic mapping the current state of the system to the next one. The most crucial point in application of the method to the analysis of real climatic data is the construction of proper embedding: the optimal set of variables - "principal modes" - determining the phase space the model works in. This task is non-trivial due to huge dimension of time series of typical space-distributed climatic fields. We outline two main features these modes should have to capture the main dynamical properties of the system: (i) capturing teleconnections in the atmosphere-ocean system by taking into account time-lagged couplings in data and (ii) reflecting the nonlinear interactions between the time series at different grid points. In this report we present the methodology of empirical forecasting which includes the construction of an embedding on the basis of the above principals: multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) together with nonlinear principal component analysis (NPCA) are used for phase space construction from data. The proposed methodology is applied to the analysis of sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure fields. Capabilities to predict various indices of climate (such as SOI, PDO, NAO, NTA, etc.) is demonstrated. This research was supported

  2. Plaque Brachytherapy for Uveal Melanoma: A Vision Prognostication Model

    SciTech Connect

    Khan, Niloufer; Khan, Mohammad K.; Bena, James; Macklis, Roger; Singh, Arun D.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: To generate a vision prognostication model after plaque brachytherapy for uveal melanoma. Methods and Materials: All patients with primary single ciliary body or choroidal melanoma treated with iodine-125 or ruthenium-106 plaque brachytherapy between January 1, 2005, and June 30, 2010, were included. The primary endpoint was loss of visual acuity. Only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/50 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/50 at the end of the study, and only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/200 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/200 at the end of the study. Factors analyzed were sex, age, cataracts, diabetes, tumor size (basal dimension and apical height), tumor location, and radiation dose to the tumor apex, fovea, and optic disc. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards were used to determine the influence of baseline patient factors on vision loss. Kaplan-Meier curves (log rank analysis) were used to estimate freedom from vision loss. Results: Of 189 patients, 92% (174) were alive as of February 1, 2011. At presentation, visual acuity was better than or equal to 20/50 and better than or equal to 20/200 in 108 and 173 patients, respectively. Of these patients, 44.4% (48) had post-treatment visual acuity of worse than 20/50 and 25.4% (44) had post-treatment visual acuity worse than 20/200. By multivariable analysis, increased age (hazard ratio [HR] of 1.01 [1.00-1.03], P=.05), increase in tumor height (HR of 1.35 [1.22-1.48], P<.001), and a greater total dose to the fovea (HR of 1.01 [1.00-1.01], P<.001) were predictive of vision loss. This information was used to develop a nomogram predictive of vision loss. Conclusions: By providing a means to predict vision loss at 3 years after treatment, our vision prognostication model can be an important tool for patient selection and treatment counseling.

  3. The prognostic roles of ALDH1 isoenzymes in gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Li, Kai; Guo, Xiaoguang; Wang, Ziwei; Li, Xiaofeng; Bu, Youquan; Bai, Xuefeng; Zheng, Liansheng; Huang, Ying

    2016-01-01

    Increased aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) activity has been determined to be present in the stem cells of several kinds of cancers including gastric cancer (GC). Nevertheless, which ones of ALDH1’s isoenzymes are leading to ALDH1 activity remains elusive. In this study, we examined the prognostic value and hazard ratio (HR) of individual ALDH1 isoenzymes in patients with GC using “The Kaplan–Meier plotter” database. mRNA high expression level of ALDH1A1 was not found to be significantly correlated with the overall survival (OS) of all patients with GC followed for 20 years, HR =0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7–1.05), P=0.13. mRNA high expression level of ALDH1A2 was also not significantly correlated with OS for all patients with GC, HR =1.13 (95% CI: 0.91–1.41), P=0.25. mRNA high expression level of ALDH1A3 was found to be significantly correlated with worsened OS in either intestinal-type patients, HR =2.24 (95% CI: 1.44–3.49), P=0.00026, or diffuse-type patients, HR =1.91 (95% CI: 1.02–3.59), P=0.04. Interestingly, mRNA high expression level of ALDH1B1 was found to be significantly correlated with better OS for all patients with GC, HR =0.66 (95% CI: 0.53–0.81), P=7.8e–05, and mRNA high expression level of ALDH1L1 was found to be significantly correlated with worsened OS for all patients with GC, HR =1.23 (95% CI: 1–1.51), P=0.048. Furthermore, our results also indicate that ALDH1A3 and ALDH1L1 are potential major contributors to the ALDH1 activity in GC, since mRNA high expression levels of ALDH1A3 and ALDH1L1 were found to be significantly correlated with worsened OS for all patients with GC. Based on our study, ALDH1A3 and ALDH1L1 are potential prognostic markers and therapeutic targets for patients with GC. PMID:27354812

  4. Prognostic significance of lymphangiogenesis in pharyngolaryngeal carcinoma patients

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Lymphatic vessel spread is considered a major route for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma metastasis. Formation of new lymphatic vessels could facilitate the process, raising the malignant potential of these tumours. Recent identification of lymphatic markers allows the study of the lymphangiogenesis phenomenon. We searched for molecular events involved in the lymphangiogenic process that could have prognostic value in laryngeal/pharyngeal carcinoma patients. Methods 104 paraffin-embedded pharyngeal/laryngeal tumour samples were studied. Immunohistochemical analysis of podoplanin and double immunofluorescence analysis of Ki-67 and D2-40 were performed. Lymph vessel density (inside the tumour mass, at its periphery or considered as a whole) and the presence of tumour emboli inside lymphatics were recorded. The proliferative state of endothelial lymphatic cells was evaluated. Results Lymphatic vessels were detected inside the tumour mass (75%) and in the surrounding tissue (80%); some of them in a proliferative state. Tumour emboli were detected in a high proportion of the cases (45%). Lymphatic vessel density was higher in the pharyngeal cases (p = 0.0029), in greater size (p = 0.039), more advanced stage primary tumours (p = 0.006) and in carcinomas of patients with affected nodes (p = 0.019). The presence of tumour emboli and a high global vessel density were indicators of poor prognosis (recorded as death from tumour) in the laryngeal group (p = 0.015 and p = 0.027, respectively), but notably not in the pharyngeal one. Interestingly, high global vessel density showed a negative prognostic value among pathologically staged N0 laryngeal carcinomas (p = 0.03). Conclusions The lymphangiogenic process correlated with aggressive tumour features (pN category, tumour size, tumour stage), but might play different roles in tumours arising from different anatomic sites. Our results suggest that detection of tumour emboli and assessment of global vessel

  5. From NDE to Prognostics: A Revolution in Asset Management for Generation IV Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Leonard J.; Doctor, Steven R.

    2007-06-01

    For Generation IV nuclear power plants (NPP) to achieve operational goals it is necessary to adopt new on-line monitoring and prognostic methodologies, giving operators better plant situational awareness and reliable predictions of remaining service life. Such techniques can improve plant economics, reduce unplanned outages, improve safety and provide probabilistic risk assessments. This paper reviews the state of the art and the potential impact from monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics on advanced NPP, with a focus on the needs of Generation IV systems.

  6. Teaching International Law: Concepts in International Relations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Starbird, Caroline; Pettit, Jenny; Singleton, Laurel

    2004-01-01

    This book is designed to introduce students to public international law. Topics covered include international public organizations, such as the United Nations and World Trade Organization, international courts, international human rights law, international trade law, and international environmental law. The goal of each study is to examine how…

  7. Prognostic understanding, quality of life and mood in patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    El-Jawahri, A; Traeger, L; Kuzmuk, K; Eusebio, J; Vandusen, H; Keenan, T; Shin, J; Gallagher, E R; Greer, J A; Pirl, W F; Jackson, V A; Ballen, K K; Spitzer, T R; Graubert, T A; McAfee, S; Dey, B; Chen, Y-B A; Temel, J S

    2015-08-01

    Little is known about how patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) and their family caregivers (FC) perceive their prognosis. We examined prognostic understanding in patients undergoing HCT and their FC and its relationship with quality of life (QOL) and mood. We conducted a longitudinal study of patients (and FC) hospitalized for HCT. We used a questionnaire to measure participants' prognostic understanding and asked the oncologists to estimate patients' prognosis prior to HCT. We assessed QOL and mood weekly and evaluated the relationship between prognostic understanding, and QOL and mood using multivariable linear mixed models. We enrolled 90 patients undergoing (autologous (n=30), myeloablative (n=30) or reduced intensity allogeneic (n=30)) HCT. About 88.9% of patients and 87.1% of FC reported it is 'extremely' or 'very' important to know about prognosis. However, 77.6% of patients and 71.7% of FC reported a discordance and more optimistic prognostic perception compared to the oncologist (P<0.0001). Patients with a concordant prognostic understanding with their oncologists reported worse QOL (β=-9.4, P=0.01) and greater depression at baseline (β=1.7, P=0.02) and over time ((β=1.2, P<0.0001). Therefore, Interventions are needed to improve prognostic understanding, while providing patients with adequate psychological support. PMID:25961772

  8. Prognostic precipitation with three liquid water classes in the ECHAM5-HAM GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sant, V.; Posselt, R.; Lohmann, U.

    2015-03-01

    In order to improve the global representation of rain formation in marine stratiform clouds a new parameterization with three prognostic liquid water classes was implemented into the general circulation model ECHAM5 with the aerosol module HAM. The additionally introduced drizzle class improves the physical representation of the droplet spectrum and more importantly, improves the microphysical processes relevant for precipitation formation compared to the standard parameterization. In order to avoid a mismatch of the liquid and ice phase, the prognostic treatment of snow has been introduced too. This has a significant effect on the amount and altitude of ice clouds, which in turn does not only affect in- and outgoing radiation, but also the parameterized collection rates. With the introduction of a prognostic precipitation scheme a more realistic representation of both liquid and ice phase large-scale precipitation is achieved compared to a diagnostic treatment. An encouraging finding is that the sensitivity of the liquid water path to the anthropogenic aerosol forcing with the prognostic treatment is reduced by about 25%. Although the total net radiative forcing is increased from 1.4±0.4 to 1.6±0.4 W m-2 from the control to the prognostic model version, the difference is within the interannual variability. Altogether the results suggest that the treatment of precipitation in global circulation models has a significant influence on the phase and lifetime of clouds, but also hints towards the uncertainties related to a prognostic precipitation scheme.

  9. Prognostic Significance of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Serum Determination in Women with Ovarian Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Bandiera, Elisabetta; Franceschini, Roberta; Specchia, Claudia; Bignotti, Eliana; Trevisiol, Chiara; Gion, Massimo; Pecorelli, Sergio; Santin, Alessandro Davide; Ravaggi, Antonella

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. We performed a review of the literature to elucidate the potential prognostic significance of serum vascular endothelial growth factor (sVEGF) levels in ovarian cancer. Methods. Eligible studies in English and Italian were identified in MEDLINE/PubMed from VEGF discovery to October 2011. All studies evaluating: (i) sVEGF levels before any surgical and chemotherapeutic treatment; (ii) the association between sVEGF levels and the established prognostic variables; (iii) the value of sVEGF levels in predicting patients' outcomes, were selected for this review. Results. The search resulted in 758 titles. Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. A statistically significant association between the level of sVEGF and FIGO stage, tumour grade, residual tumour size, lymph node involvement, and presence of ascites was found in at least one study. sVEGF, in comparison with the established prognostic factors, appears to be the best prognostic marker for overall survival, since it stands out as an independent prognostic factor in most of the studies considered. Moreover, sVEGF levels were shown to be independent prognostic factors by 2 out of the 3 studies that considered DFS as an end point. Conclusion. High levels of sVEGF identify a subgroup of patients with higher risk of death and/or recurrence. These patients should be eligible for individually tailored therapeutic interventions. PMID:22792477

  10. Particle filter based hybrid prognostics for health monitoring of uncertain systems in bond graph framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jha, Mayank Shekhar; Dauphin-Tanguy, G.; Ould-Bouamama, B.

    2016-06-01

    The paper's main objective is to address the problem of health monitoring of system parameters in Bond Graph (BG) modeling framework, by exploiting its structural and causal properties. The system in feedback control loop is considered uncertain globally. Parametric uncertainty is modeled in interval form. The system parameter is undergoing degradation (prognostic candidate) and its degradation model is assumed to be known a priori. The detection of degradation commencement is done in a passive manner which involves interval valued robust adaptive thresholds over the nominal part of the uncertain BG-derived interval valued analytical redundancy relations (I-ARRs). The latter forms an efficient diagnostic module. The prognostics problem is cast as joint state-parameter estimation problem, a hybrid prognostic approach, wherein the fault model is constructed by considering the statistical degradation model of the system parameter (prognostic candidate). The observation equation is constructed from nominal part of the I-ARR. Using particle filter (PF) algorithms; the estimation of state of health (state of prognostic candidate) and associated hidden time-varying degradation progression parameters is achieved in probabilistic terms. A simplified variance adaptation scheme is proposed. Associated uncertainties which arise out of noisy measurements, parametric degradation process, environmental conditions etc. are effectively managed by PF. This allows the production of effective predictions of the remaining useful life of the prognostic candidate with suitable confidence bounds. The effectiveness of the novel methodology is demonstrated through simulations and experiments on a mechatronic system.

  11. Prognostic Understanding, Quality of Life, and Mood in Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    El-Jawahri, Areej; Traeger, Lara; Kuzmuk, Kailyn; Eusebio, Justin; Vandusen, Harry; Keenan, Tanya; Shin, Jennifer; Gallagher, Emily R.; Greer, Joseph A.; Pirl, William F.; Jackson, Vicki A.; Ballen, Karen K; Spitzer, Thomas R.; Graubert, Timothy A.; McAfee, Steven; Dey, Bimalangshu; Chen, Yi-Bin A.; Temel, Jennifer S.

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about how patients undergoing stem cell transplantation (HCT) and their family caregivers (FC) perceive their prognosis. We examined prognostic understanding in patients undergoing HCT and their FC and its relationship with quality of life (QOL) and mood. We conducted a longitudinal study of patients (and FC) hospitalized for HCT. We used a questionnaire to measure participants’ prognostic understanding and asked the oncologists to estimate patients’ prognosis prior to HCT. We assessed QOL and mood weekly and evaluated the relationship between prognostic understanding and QOL and mood using multivariable linear mixed models. We enrolled 90 patients undergoing (autologous n=30); myeloablative (n=30) or reduced intensity allogeneic (n=30)) HCT. 88.9% of patients and 87.1% of FC reported it is ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ important to know about prognosis. However, 77.6% of patients and 71.7% of FC reported a discordance and more optimistic prognostic perception compared to the oncologist (P’s < 0.0001). Patients with a concordant prognostic understanding with their oncologists reported worse QOL (β = −9.4, P = 0.01) and greater depression at baseline (β = 1.7, P = 0.02) and over time ((β = 1.2, P < 0.0001). Therefore, Interventions are needed to improve prognostic understanding, while providing patients with adequate psychological support. PMID:25961772

  12. Prognostic and health management of active assets in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy; Pham, Binh T.; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-06-04

    This study presents the development of diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for active assets in nuclear power plants (NPPs). The research was performed under the Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control Technologies Pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. Idaho National Laboratory researched, developed, implemented, and demonstrated diagnostic and prognostic models for generator step-up transformers (GSUs). The Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software developed by the Electric Power Research Institute was used to perform diagnosis and prognosis. As part of the research activity, Idaho National Laboratory implemented 22 GSU diagnostic models in the Asset Fault Signature Database and two wellestablished GSU prognostic models for the paper winding insulation in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The implemented models along with a simulated fault data stream were used to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic capabilities of the FW-PHM Suite. Knowledge of the operating condition of plant asset gained from diagnosis and prognosis is critical for the safe, productive, and economical long-term operation of the current fleet of NPPs. This research addresses some of the gaps in the current state of technology development and enables effective application of diagnostics and prognostics to nuclear plant assets.

  13. Prognostic and health management of active assets in nuclear power plants

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy; Pham, Binh T.; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-06-04

    This study presents the development of diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for active assets in nuclear power plants (NPPs). The research was performed under the Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control Technologies Pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. Idaho National Laboratory researched, developed, implemented, and demonstrated diagnostic and prognostic models for generator step-up transformers (GSUs). The Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software developed by the Electric Power Research Institute was used to perform diagnosis and prognosis. As part of the research activity, Idaho National Laboratory implemented 22 GSU diagnostic models in the Asset Fault Signature Database and twomore » wellestablished GSU prognostic models for the paper winding insulation in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The implemented models along with a simulated fault data stream were used to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic capabilities of the FW-PHM Suite. Knowledge of the operating condition of plant asset gained from diagnosis and prognosis is critical for the safe, productive, and economical long-term operation of the current fleet of NPPs. This research addresses some of the gaps in the current state of technology development and enables effective application of diagnostics and prognostics to nuclear plant assets.« less

  14. Prognostic precipitation with three liquid water classes in the ECHAM5-HAM GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sant, V.; Posselt, R.; Lohmann, U.

    2015-08-01

    A new parameterization with three prognostic liquid water classes was implemented into the general circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5 with the aerosol module HAM in order to improve the global representation of rain formation in marine stratiform clouds. The additionally introduced drizzle class improves the physical representation of the droplet spectrum and, more importantly, improves the microphysical processes relevant for precipitation formation compared to the standard parameterization. In order to avoid a mismatch of the liquid and ice phase, a prognostic treatment of snow has been introduced too. This has a significant effect on the amount and altitude of ice clouds, which in turn affects not only the in- and outgoing radiation but also the parameterized collection rates. With the introduction of a prognostic precipitation scheme, a more realistic representation of both liquid and ice phase large-scale precipitation is achieved compared to a diagnostic treatment. An encouraging finding is that with the prognostic treatment the increase of the liquid water path in response to anthropogenic aerosols is reduced by about 25 %. Although the total net radiative forcing is decreased from -1.3±0.3 to -1.6±0.3 W m-2 from the control to the prognostic model version, the difference is within the interannual variability. Altogether the results suggest that the treatment of precipitation in global circulation models has not only a significant influence on the phase of clouds and their conversion rates, but also hints towards uncertainties related to a prognostic precipitation scheme.

  15. Prognostic Factors of Primary Intraosseous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (PIOSCC): A Retrospective Review

    PubMed Central

    Wenguang, Xu; Hao, Shen; Xiaofeng, Qi; Zhiyong, Wang; Yufeng, Wang; Qingang, Hu; Wei, Han

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To delineate clinical and pathological features and determine the prognostic factors of primary intraosseous squamous cell carcinoma (PIOSCC). Materials and methods Patients diagnosed with PIOSCC, attending the department of oral and maxillofacial surgery, Nanjing stomatological hospital between 2005 and 2015, were identified and retrospectively reviewed for clinical and pathological characteristics. Therapeutic modalities were measured and related follow-up data recorded, in order to determine prognostic factors of PIOSSC. Results A total of 77 patients with PIOSCC were included in the study. Mean age at diagnosis was 58.8 years, (range, 37−81 years). Of the 77 patients, there were 58 men and 19 women. The most common location of disease was the mandible (71.42%), particularly the posterior mandible. The common presenting symptoms included jaw swelling (79.2%) and ulceration (42.65%). The estimated 2-year and 5-year overall survival were 68.9% and 38.8%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified the following as negative prognostic factors: histological grade, N classification, nodal status and treatment modalities. However, multivariate analysis determined positive nodal status, high histological grade and advanced N classification as the independent significant prognostic factors. Conclusion Our results demonstrate several clinical and pathological features of PIOSCC and identify important prognostic factors associated with overall survival in PIOSCC. These prognostic factors include nodal status, histological grade, N classification, and treatment modalities, all of which are important for patient counseling and may be useful for the development of new treatment approaches. PMID:27074366

  16. A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kan, Man Shan; Tan, Andy C. C.; Mathew, Joseph

    2015-10-01

    The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

  17. MIB-1 labelling index is an independent prognostic marker in primary breast cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Jansen, R. L.; Hupperets, P. S.; Arends, J. W.; Joosten-Achjanie, S. R.; Volovics, A.; Schouten, H. C.; Hillen, H. F.

    1998-01-01

    The proliferative activity of a tumour is considered to be an important prognostic factor in primary breast cancer. We have investigated the prognostic value of the MIB-1 labelling index in 341 patients with primary breast cancer and compared the results with the S-phase fraction in 220 patients of the same cohort. All patients were treated in one hospital and had a median follow-up of 128 months. No correlation between MIB-1 labelling and S-phase fraction could be demonstrated. MIB-1 had prognostic value for disease-free survival in the whole group of patients (P < 0.001) and in the node-negative subgroup (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, MIB-1 was an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.004) besides axillary lymph node status (P = 0.001). In univariate analysis high S-phase fraction was associated with decreased overall survival (P = 0.04); however, not in multivariate analysis. Moreover, S-phase fraction had a borderline prognostic significance for post-relapse survival in multivariate analysis (P= 0.08). Thus, in conclusion, the growth fraction of a tumour as determined by the MIB-1 labelling index is an important prognostic factor in patients with primary breast cancer. PMID:9716027

  18. Periodic acid-Schiff-positive loops and networks as a prognostic factor in oral mucosal melanoma.

    PubMed

    Song, Hao; Jing, Guangping; Wang, Lizhen; Guo, Wei; Ren, Guoxin

    2016-04-01

    The prognostic factors of oral mucosal melanoma (OMM), a rare and aggressive neoplasm, remain to be determined. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic significance of vasculogenic mimicry in OMM. The clinical data of 62 patients with primary OMM treated in Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital from April 2007 to April 2012 were retrieved and analyzed retrospectively. Staining of periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) and CD31 immunohistochemistry were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of PAS-positive patterns, blood lakes, and microvascular density. PAS-positive loops and networks (P<0.001) as well as blood lakes (P=0.040) were found to be predictors of overall survival (OS). The presence of PAS-positive loops and networks was an independent prognostic factor of poor OS in multivariate analysis (P=0.002). Although the presence of PAS-positive loops and networks was associated with hematogenous metastasis (P=0.041) and lymphogenous metastasis (P=0.041), it was not an independent predictor of both types of metastasis in multivariate analysis. Microvascular density was not associated with OS (P=0.627) and metastasis of OMM patients. PAS-positive loops and networks have a significant prognostic value in OMM. Detection of PAS-positive patterns may lead to better staging and serve as a prognostic parameter of OMM. PMID:26636907

  19. [Internal migration].

    PubMed

    Borisovna, L

    1991-06-01

    Very few studies have been conducted that truly permit explanation of internal migration and it repercussions on social and economic structure. It is clear however that a profound knowledge of the determinants and consequences of internal migration will be required as a basis for economic policy decisions that advance the goal of improving the level of living of the population. the basic supposition of most studies of the relationship of population and development is that socioeconomic development conditions demographic dynamics. The process of development in Mexico, which can be characterized by great heterogeneity, consequently produces great regional disparities. At the national level various studies have estimated the volume of internal migration in Mexico, but they have usually been limited to interstate migration because the main source of data, the census, is classified by states. But given the great heterogeneity within states in all the elements related to internal migration, it is clear that studies of internal migration within states are also needed. Such studies are almost nonexistent because of their technical difficulty. National level studies show that interstate migration increased significantly between 1940-80. The proportion of Mexicans living outside their states of birth increased by 558% in those years, compared to the 342% increase in the total Mexican population. Although Puebla has a high rate of increase, migration has kept it below Mexico's national growth rate. Migration between Puebla and other states and within Puebla has led to an increasing unevenness of spatial distribution. Between 1970-80, 57 of Puebla's municipios had growth rates above the state average of 2.8%/year, 6 had growth rates equal to the average, and 129 had growth rates that were below the average but not negative. 25 states with negative growth rates that were considered strongly expulsive. In 1980, 51.7% of the population was concentrated in the 57 municipios

  20. Prognostic significance of TP53 alterations in breast carcinoma.

    PubMed Central

    Andersen, T. I.; Holm, R.; Nesland, J. M.; Heimdal, K. R.; Ottestad, L.; Børresen, A. L.

    1993-01-01

    Constant denaturant gel electrophoresis (CDGE) was used to screen 179 breast carcinomas for mutations in the conserved regions of the TP53 gene (exons 5 through 8). Mutations were found in 35 of 163 primary tumours (21%) and in 5 of 16 metastases (31%) and resided predominantly in exon 7. The majority of the mutations were G:C-->A:T transitions. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated nuclear accumulation of p53 protein in 35 of 162 primary tumours (22%) and in four of 15 metastases (27%). TP53 mutation was strongly associated with nuclear accumulation of p53 protein. In total 42 of 163 primary tumours (26%) and 5 of 16 metastases (31%) were demonstrated to contain TP53 alterations (mutation and/or nuclear protein accumulation). TP53 alteration in primary tumour was significantly associated with the following parameters: positive node status, T status > 1, negative oestrogen receptor status, negative progesterone receptor status, presence of ERBB2 gene amplification, and invasive ductal histology. Furthermore, there were statistically significant associations, independent of other prognostic factors, between TP53 alterations in primary tumour and disease-free and overall survival. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:8102535

  1. Prognostic Factors and Survival in Pediatric and Adolescent Liposarcoma

    PubMed Central

    Stanelle, Eric J.; Christison-Lagay, Emily R.; Sidebotham, Emma L.; Singer, Samuel; Antonescu, Cristina R.; Meyers, Paul A.; La Quaglia, Michael P.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose. Liposarcoma is extremely rare in the pediatric population. To identify prognostic factors and determine treatment outcomes, we reviewed our institutional experience with pediatric liposarcoma. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed all pediatric patients (age <22 years) with confirmed liposarcoma treated at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. Histologic subtype, tumor location, margin status, recurrence, and adjuvant therapy were analyzed and correlated with overall survival. Results. Thirty-four patients (56% male) with a median age of 18.1 years were identified. Twenty-two (65%) had peripheral tumors and 12 (35%) had centrally located tumors. Histologically, 29 (85%) tumors were low grade, and 5 (15%) were high grade pleomorphic. Eleven (32%) had recurrent disease, 9 patients with central tumors and 2 patients with peripheral lesions. Eight deaths occurred, all in patients with central disease. Five-year overall survival was 78%, with a median follow-up time of 5.4 years (range, 0.3–30.3 years). Tumor grade (P = .003), histologic subtype (P = .01), and primary location (P < .001) all correlated with survival, as did stage (P < .001) and margin status (P = .001). Conclusions. Central location of the primary tumor, high tumor grade, and positive surgical margins are strongly correlated with poor survival in pediatric patients with liposarcoma. PMID:22991488

  2. Prognostic factors of adult metastatic renal carcinoma: a multivariate analysis.

    PubMed

    de Forges, A; Rey, A; Klink, M; Ghosn, M; Kramar, A; Droz, J P

    1988-01-01

    In order to define the prognostic factors for metastatic renal carcinoma, we reviewed 134 patients who were treated from 1971 through 1986. Survival rates were 72, 45, and 25% at 6, 12, and 18 months, respectively. Seventeen variables were tested using the logrank test. Improved survival was correlated with normal performance status, and an absence of fever, weight loss, hepatic metastasis, and lung metastasis (or, if lung metastasis was present, less than 2 cm in diameter and limited to one site), a disease-free interval, sedimentation rate less than 100, and renal surgery. Four variables retained significant value in the multivariate analysis: hepatic metastasis, lung metastasis, disease-free interval, and a variable combining the sedimentation rate and the weight loss (SWRL). Predictive survival rates based on these variables were calculated from the Cox model. Six subgroups of patients were identified. The estimation of survival is clinically of value for future phase II trials of chemotherapy in patients with adult metastatic renal carcinoma. PMID:3187293

  3. Smart Sensing System for the Prognostic Monitoring of Bone Health.

    PubMed

    Afsarimanesh, Nasrin; Zia, Asif I; Mukhopadhyay, Subhas Chandra; Kruger, Marlena; Yu, Pak-Lam; Kosel, Jurgen; Kovacs, Zoltan

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to report a novel non-invasive, real-time, and label-free smart assay technique for the prognostic detection of bone loss by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The proposed system incorporated an antibody-antigen-based sensor functionalization to induce selectivity for the C-terminal telopeptide type one collagen (CTx-I) molecules-a bone loss biomarker. Streptavidin agarose was immobilized on the sensing area of a silicon substrate-based planar sensor, patterned with gold interdigital electrodes, to capture the antibody-antigen complex. Calibration experiments were conducted with various known CTx-I concentrations in a buffer solution to obtain a reference curve that was used to quantify the concentration of an analyte in the unknown serum samples. Multivariate chemometric analyses were done to determine the performance viability of the developed system. The analyses suggested that a frequency of 710 Hz is the most discriminating regarding the system sensitivity. A detection limit of 0.147 ng/mL was achieved for the proposed sensor and the corresponding reference curve was linear in the range of 0.147 ng/mL to 2.669 ng/mL. Two sheep blood samples were tested by the developed technique and the results were validated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The results from the proposed technique match those from the ELISA. PMID:27347968

  4. Prognostic Utility of Serum Potassium in Chronic Digoxin Toxicity

    PubMed Central

    Manini, Alex F.; Nelson, Lewis S.; Hoffman, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective In contrast to patients with acute digoxin overdose, the prognostic utility of the serum potassium concentration for patients with chronic digoxin toxicity is unclear. In such patients, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between pre-treatment serum potassium and survival. Methods This was a case-control study at an urban Poison Control Center affiliated with a large urban medical center. We compared the serum potassium concentration between patients with chronic digoxin toxicity resulting in fatality (cases) over a 7-year period (2000–2006) versus survivors (controls) over a 1-year period (2007–2008). Results During the study period, there were 13 fatalities (cases) and 13 survivors (controls), of whom seven cases and five controls received appropriately dosed digoxin-specific antibody Fab fragments (Fab). There were no statistically significant differences between cases and controls with respect to serum digoxin concentration, creatinine, age, or sex. Serum potassium elevation pre-Fab was significantly associated with fatality both in mean difference (p < 0.03) and using a dichotomous cutoff of 5.0 mEq/L (p < 0.001), which performed with 92% sensitivity (95% CI 67, 99). In 86% of deaths despite appropriate Fab administration, the clinical presentation included the combination of bradycardia plus hyperkalemia. Conclusion In these patients with chronic digoxin toxicity, elevated serum potassium was associated with fatality. The combination of bradycardia and hyperkalemia strongly predicted fatality even in cases with appropriate Fab administration. PMID:21619380

  5. Prognostic significance of minichromosome maintenance proteins in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kwok, Hang Fai; Zhang, Shu-Dong; McCrudden, Cian M; Yuen, Hiu-Fung; Ting, Kam-Po; Wen, Qing; Khoo, Ui-Soon; Chan, Kelvin Yuen-Kwong

    2015-01-01

    A role for the minichromosome maintenance (MCM) proteins in cancer initiation and progression is slowly emerging. Functioning as a complex to ensure a single chromosomal replication per cell cycle, the six family members have been implicated in several neoplastic disease states, including breast cancer. Our study aim to investigate the prognostic significance of these proteins in breast cancer. We studied the expression of MCMs in various datasets and the associations of the expression with clinicopathological parameters. When considered alone, high level MCM4 overexpression was only weakly associated with shorter survival in the combined breast cancer patient cohort (n = 1441, Hazard Ratio = 1.31; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.11-1.55; p = 0.001). On the other hand, when we studied all six components of the MCM complex, we found that overexpression of all MCMs was strongly associated with shorter survival in the same cohort (n = 1441, Hazard Ratio = 1.75; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.31-2.34; p < 0.001), suggesting these MCM proteins may cooperate to promote breast cancer progression. Indeed, their expressions were significantly correlated with each other in these cohorts. In addition, we found that increasing number of overexpressed MCMs was associated with negative ER status as well as treatment response. Together, our findings are reproducible in seven independent breast cancer cohorts, with 1441 patients, and suggest that MCM profiling could potentially be used to predict response to treatment and prognosis in breast cancer patients. PMID:25628920

  6. Synthesize battery degradation modes via a diagnostic and prognostic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubarry, Matthieu; Truchot, Cyril; Liaw, Bor Yann

    2012-12-01

    Batteries are being used in increasingly complicated configurations with very demanding duty schedules. Such usage makes the use of batteries in multi-cell configurations to meet voltage, power, and energy demands in a very stressful manner. Thus, effective management and control of a battery system to allow efficient, reliable, and safe operation becomes vital, and diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential. Yet, developing these tools in practical applications is new to the industry, difficult and challenging. Here we present a novel mechanistic model that can enable battery diagnosis and prognosis. The model can simulate various “what-if” scenarios of battery degradation modes via a synthetic approach based on specific electrode behavior with proper adjustment of the loading ratio and the extent of degradation in and between the two electrodes. This approach is very different from the conventional empirical ones that correlate the cell parameters (such as impedance increases) with degradation in capacity or power fade to predict performance and life. This approach, with mechanistic understanding of battery degradation processes and failure mechanisms, offers unique high-fidelity simulation to address path dependence of the battery degradation.

  7. Evidence-based prognostication in a case of sciatica

    PubMed Central

    Emary, Peter C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To present an evidence-based case report on the prognosis of a patient with sciatica. Case: A 43-year-old man presented with right-sided buttock and lower extremity pain and numbness of 10 weeks’ duration. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed a lumbosacral disc herniation. Straight leg raise testing provoked the patient’s right sciatic pain, and neurologic examination revealed a diminished right Achilles tendon reflex and mild hypoesthesia along the patient’s outer right foot. Outcome: PubMed was searched and two cohort studies relevant to sciatic prognosis were found. These articles were critically appraised for their validity, importance, and applicability in making a prognostic estimate for this particular patient. Based on the appraised research evidence, and the confidence intervals calculated therein, the overall prognosis for sciatic pain recovery with conservative care was estimated as favourable for this patient, though sensory recovery (even with surgical care) was not. Summary: This case report illustrates how to use research literature in estimating the clinical prognosis for an individual patient, and how this can be useful towards clinical decision-making concerning treatment. PMID:25729082

  8. Prognostic value of DNA repair based stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Lin, Zhuo; Xu, Shi-Hao; Wang, Hai-Qing; Cai, Yi-Jing; Ying, Li; Song, Mei; Wang, Yu-Qun; Du, Shan-Jie; Shi, Ke-Qing; Zhou, Meng-Tao

    2016-01-01

    Aberrant activation of DNA repair is frequently associated with tumor progression and response to therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Bioinformatics analyses of HCC data in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were performed to define DNA repair based molecular classification that could predict the prognosis of patients with HCC. Furthermore, we tested its predictive performance in 120 independent cases. Four molecular subgroups were identified on the basis of coordinate DNA repair cluster (CDRC) comprising 15 genes in TCGA dataset. Increasing expression of CDRC genes were significantly associated with TP53 mutation. High CDRC was significantly correlated with advanced tumor grades, advanced pathological stage and increased vascular invasion rate. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the molecular subgrouping was an independent prognostic parameter for both overall survival (p = 0.004, hazard ratio (HR): 2.989) and tumor-free survival (p = 0.049, HR: 3.366) in TCGA dataset. Similar results were also obtained by analyzing the independent cohort. These data suggest that distinct dysregulation of DNA repair constituents based molecular classes in HCC would be useful for predicting prognosis and designing clinical trials for targeted therapy. PMID:27174663

  9. Prognostic value of DNA repair based stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Zhuo; Xu, Shi-Hao; Wang, Hai-Qing; Cai, Yi-Jing; Ying, Li; Song, Mei; Wang, Yu-Qun; Du, Shan-Jie; Shi, Ke-Qing; Zhou, Meng-Tao

    2016-01-01

    Aberrant activation of DNA repair is frequently associated with tumor progression and response to therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Bioinformatics analyses of HCC data in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were performed to define DNA repair based molecular classification that could predict the prognosis of patients with HCC. Furthermore, we tested its predictive performance in 120 independent cases. Four molecular subgroups were identified on the basis of coordinate DNA repair cluster (CDRC) comprising 15 genes in TCGA dataset. Increasing expression of CDRC genes were significantly associated with TP53 mutation. High CDRC was significantly correlated with advanced tumor grades, advanced pathological stage and increased vascular invasion rate. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the molecular subgrouping was an independent prognostic parameter for both overall survival (p = 0.004, hazard ratio (HR): 2.989) and tumor-free survival (p = 0.049, HR: 3.366) in TCGA dataset. Similar results were also obtained by analyzing the independent cohort. These data suggest that distinct dysregulation of DNA repair constituents based molecular classes in HCC would be useful for predicting prognosis and designing clinical trials for targeted therapy. PMID:27174663

  10. Interleukin-33 in human gliomas: Expression and prognostic significance

    PubMed Central

    GRAMATZKI, DOROTHEE; FREI, KARL; CATHOMAS, GIERI; MOCH, HOLGER; WELLER, MICHAEL; MERTZ, KIRSTEN DIANA

    2016-01-01

    Interleukin-33 (IL-33) is a nuclear and pleiotropic cytokine with regard to its cellular sources and its actions. IL-33 is involved in the pathogenesis of brain diseases. Several factors account for the tumorigenicity of human gliomas, including cytokines and their receptors. The present study assessed the expression and prognostic significance of IL-33 in human astroglial brain tumors. Protein levels of IL-33 were determined by immunohistochemistry using a tissue microarray containing 95 human gliomas. mRNA expression data of IL-33, as well as of its receptors, IL-1 receptor-like 1 protein and IL-1 receptor accessory protein (IL1RAcP), were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. IL-33 protein was expressed heterogeneously in tumor tissue, but was, however, not detected in normal brain tissue. There was no differential IL-33 protein expression by tumor grade, while IL-33 protein expression was associated with inferior survival in patients with recurrent glioblastomas. Interrogations of the TCGA database indicated that mRNA expression of IL-33 and the IL-33 receptors was heterogeneous, and that IL-33 and IL1RAcP mRNA levels were correlated with the tumor grade. Elevated IL-33 mRNA levels were associated with the inferior survival of glioblastoma patients. Therefore, IL-33 may play an important role in the pathogenesis and prognosis of human gliomas. PMID:27347163

  11. Outcome and Prognostic Factors of Radiation Therapy for Medulloblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Rieken, Stefan; Mohr, Angela; Habermehl, Daniel; Welzel, Thomas; Lindel, Katja; Witt, Olaf; Kulozik, Andreas E.; Wick, Wolfgang; Debus, Juergen; Combs, Stephanie E.

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: To investigate treatment outcome and prognostic factors after radiation therapy in patients with medulloblastomas (MB). Methods and Materials: Sixty-six patients with histologically confirmed MB were treated at University Hospital of Heidelberg between 1985 and 2009. Forty-two patients (64%) were pediatric ({<=}18 years), and 24 patients (36%) were adults. Tumor resection was performed in all patients and was complete in 47%. All patients underwent postoperative craniospinal irradiation (CSI) delivering a median craniospinal dose of 35.5 Gy with additional boosts to the posterior fossa up to 54.0 Gy. Forty-seven patients received chemotherapy, including 21 in whom chemotherapy was administered before CSI. Statistical analysis was performed using the log-rank test and the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Median follow-up was 93 months. Overall survival (OS) and local and distant progression-free survival (LPFS and DPFS) were 73%, 62%, and 77% at 60 months. Both local and distant recurrence predisposed for significantly reduced OS. Macroscopic complete tumor resection, desmoplastic histology and early initiation of postoperative radiation therapy within 28 days were associated with improved outcome. The addition of chemotherapy did not improve survival rates. Toxicity was moderate. Conclusions: Complete resection of MB followed by CSI yields long survival rates in both children and adults. Delayed initiation of CSI is associated with poor outcome. Desmoplastic histology is associated with improved survival. The role of chemotherapy, especially in the adult population, must be further investigated in clinical studies.

  12. Reproducibility of an imaging based prostate cancer prognostic assay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Faisal M.; Powell, Douglas; Bayer-Zubek, Valentina; Soares, Rui; Mott, Allison; Fernandez, Gerardo; Mesa-Tejada, Ricardo; Donovan, Michael J.

    2011-03-01

    The Prostate Px prognostic assay offered by Aureon Biosciences is designed to predict progression post primary treatment for prostate cancer patients based on their diagnostic biopsy specimen. The assay is driven by the automated image analysis of biological specimens. Three different histological sections are analyzed for morphometric as well as immunofluorescence protein expression properties within areas of tumor digitally masked by expert pathologists. The assay was developed on a multi-institution cohort of up to 9 images from each of 1027 patients. The variation in histological sections, staining, pathologist tumor masking and the region of image acquisition all have the potential to significantly impact imaging features and consequently the reproducibility of the assay's results for the same patient. This study analyzed the reproducibility of the assay in 50 patients who were re-processed within 3 months in a blinded fashion as de-novo patients. The key assay results reported were in agreement in 94% of the cases. The two independent endpoints of risk classification reproduced results in 90% and 92% of the predictions. This work presents one of the first assessments of the reproducibility of a commercial assay's results given the inherent variations in images and quantitative imaging characteristics in a commercial setting.

  13. Tumor-associated autoantibodies as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Heo, Chang-Kyu; Bahk, Young Yil; Cho, Eun-Wie

    2012-01-01

    In the process of tumorigenesis, normal cells are remodeled to cancer cells and protein expression patterns are changed to those of tumor cells. A newly formed tumor microenvironment elicits the immune system and, as a result, a humoral immune response takes place. Although the tumor antigens are undetectable in sera at the early stage of tumorigenesis, the nature of an antibody amplification response to antigens makes tumor-associated autoantibodies as promising early biomarkers in cancer diagnosis. Moreover, the recent development of proteomic techniques that make neo-epitopes of tumor-associated autoantigens discovered concomitantly has opened a new area of ‘immuno-proteomics’, which presents tumor-associated autoantibody signatures and confers information to redefine the process of tumorigenesis. In this article, the strategies recently used to identify and validate serum autoantibodies are outlined and tumor-associated antigens suggested until now as diagnostic/prognostic biomarkers in various tumor types are reviewed. Also, the meaning of autoantibody signatures and their clinical utility in personalized medicine are discussed. [BMB Reports 2012; 45(12): 677-685] PMID:23261052

  14. Remote Structural Health Monitoring and Advanced Prognostics of Wind Turbines

    SciTech Connect

    Douglas Brown; Bernard Laskowski

    2012-05-29

    The prospect of substantial investment in wind energy generation represents a significant capital investment strategy. In order to maximize the life-cycle of wind turbines, associated rotors, gears, and structural towers, a capability to detect and predict (prognostics) the onset of mechanical faults at a sufficiently early stage for maintenance actions to be planned would significantly reduce both maintenance and operational costs. Advancement towards this effort has been made through the development of anomaly detection, fault detection and fault diagnosis routines to identify selected fault modes of a wind turbine based on available sensor data preceding an unscheduled emergency shutdown. The anomaly detection approach employs spectral techniques to find an approximation of the data using a combination of attributes that capture the bulk of variability in the data. Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) is performed using a neural network-based classifier trained from baseline and fault data recorded during known failure conditions. The approach has been evaluated for known baseline conditions and three selected failure modes: pitch rate failure, low oil pressure failure and a gearbox gear-tooth failure. Experimental results demonstrate the approach can distinguish between these failure modes and normal baseline behavior within a specified statistical accuracy.

  15. Smart Sensing System for the Prognostic Monitoring of Bone Health

    PubMed Central

    Afsarimanesh, Nasrin; Zia, Asif I.; Mukhopadhyay, Subhas Chandra; Kruger, Marlena; Yu, Pak-Lam; Kosel, Jurgen; Kovacs, Zoltan

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to report a novel non-invasive, real-time, and label-free smart assay technique for the prognostic detection of bone loss by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The proposed system incorporated an antibody-antigen-based sensor functionalization to induce selectivity for the C-terminal telopeptide type one collagen (CTx-I) molecules—a bone loss biomarker. Streptavidin agarose was immobilized on the sensing area of a silicon substrate-based planar sensor, patterned with gold interdigital electrodes, to capture the antibody-antigen complex. Calibration experiments were conducted with various known CTx-I concentrations in a buffer solution to obtain a reference curve that was used to quantify the concentration of an analyte in the unknown serum samples. Multivariate chemometric analyses were done to determine the performance viability of the developed system. The analyses suggested that a frequency of 710 Hz is the most discriminating regarding the system sensitivity. A detection limit of 0.147 ng/mL was achieved for the proposed sensor and the corresponding reference curve was linear in the range of 0.147 ng/mL to 2.669 ng/mL. Two sheep blood samples were tested by the developed technique and the results were validated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The results from the proposed technique match those from the ELISA. PMID:27347968

  16. Transcranial magnetic stimulation as a prognostic tool in stroke.

    PubMed

    D'Olhaberriague, L; Espadaler Gamissans, J M; Marrugat, J; Valls, A; Oliveras Ley, C; Seoane, J L

    1997-03-20

    Our aims were to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of magnetic motor evoked potentials (MMEPs) in ischemic stroke, to study the evolution of MMEP abnormalities and the relationships between MMEP abnormalities and infarction topography. We prospectively analyzed 50 consecutive ischemic stroke patients who were followed up to 1 year. MMEPs were recorded 1, 3, 30 and 90 days after stroke and we measured amplitudes and latencies/central motor conduction times (CMCTs) of MMEPs from hypothenar, biceps brachiallis, gastrocnemius and quadriceps. Univariate and multivariate analyses of the clinical and MMEPs data were performed. Patients with Rankin 0-3 at 1 year had had acutely MMEPs with shorter latencies and higher amplitudes than patients with Rankin 4-5 or deceased patients. Increased blood pressure correlated with increased survival, whereas increased heart rate and hyperglycemia correlated with increased mortality. The variables infarction size on second CT, age, and first day CMCT-S1 correctly classified 1 year outcome on discriminant analysis. The inclusion of MMEPs values increased the probability of correct classification from 76% to 84%. We conclude that in patients with nondisabling strokes MMEPs may have an independent value in the prediction of prognosis, increasing the accuracy of prognosis calculations made employing clinical and laboratory data. Topography of lesions should be considered when analyzing MMEP abnormalities after stroke. PMID:9094063

  17. Prognostic value of endothelial dysfunction in type 1 diabetes mellitus

    PubMed Central

    Ladeia, Ana Marice; Sampaio, Raphael Ribeiro; Hita, Maiara Costa; Adan, Luis F

    2014-01-01

    Patients with diabetes mellitus are at high risk of developing atherosclerosis, associated with higher rates of micro and macro vascular involvement such as coronary artery disease and renal disease. The role of hyperglycemia to induce synthesis of reactive oxygen species by the oxidation of glucose, leading to an increased production of advanced glycosylation end products, as well as inflammation and oxidative stress has been proposed as a possible mechanism in the pathogenesis of endothelial dysfunction (ED). The interaction between C-peptide - the connecting segment of pro-insulin-and nitric oxide in vasodilation is also discussed. Therefore, endothelial dysfunction has been identified as an early marker of vascular disorder in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In some other diseases, ED has been considered an independent predictor of vascular disease, regardless of the method used. Studies have demonstrated the importance of endothelial dysfunction as an useful tool for identifying the risk of vascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, particularly as regards to renal impairment. The aim of this review is to clarify the prognostic value of endothelial dysfunction as a marker of vascular disease in these subjects. PMID:25317238

  18. Prognostic implications of normal exercise thallium 201 images

    SciTech Connect

    Wahl, J.M.; Hakki, A.H.; Iskandrian, A.S.

    1985-02-01

    A study was made of 455 patients (mean age, 51 years) in whom exercise thallium 201 scintigrams performed for suspected coronary artery disease were normal. Of those, 322 (71%) had typical or atypical angina pectoris and 68% achieved 85% or more maximal predicted heart rate. The exercise ECGs were abnormal in 68 patients (15%), normal in 229 (50%), and inconclusive in 158 (35%). Ventricular arrhythmias occurred during exercise in 194 patients (43%). After a mean follow-up period of 14 months, four patients had had cardiac events, sudden cardiac death in one and nonfatal myocardial infarctions in three. None of the four patients had abnormal exercise ECGs. Two had typical and two had atypical angina pectoris. Normal exercise thallium 201 images identify patients at a low risk for future cardiac events (0.8% per year), patients with abnormal exercise ECGs but normal thallium images have good prognoses, and exercise thallium 201 imaging is a better prognostic predictor than treadmill exercise testing alone, because of the high incidence of inconclusive exercise ECGs and the good prognosis in patients with abnormal exercise ECGs.

  19. Diagnostic and prognostic markers for uterine diseases in dogs.

    PubMed

    Hagman, R

    2014-06-01

    Common uterine diseases in female dogs include cystic endometrial hyperplasia (CEH), mucometra, hydrometra and pyometra. It is important in clinical practice to recognize pyometra because it is potentially life-threatening due to the systemic illness induced by bacterial infection of the uterus. In contrast, the uterine content is sterile in CEH and mucometra/hydrometra, and clinical signs are mostly mild or absent. Optimal treatment depends on the type of uterine disease and its severity, but diagnosis and prognosis determination may be challenging and the diseases difficult to separate clinically. Diagnostic findings or biomarkers that may aid in the differentiation of the diseases are valuable, especially when several bitches are admitted with a fluid-filled uterus during night-time, and it has to be decided which patient to operate on first. Additionally, some variables may indicate outcome as measured by mortality or morbidity. If the uterus is not enlarged or fluid-filled, detection of uterine disease can be even more difficult. In this study, clinically useful variables with possible diagnostic or prognostic value for uterine diseases in dogs are discussed. PMID:24947856

  20. Acute Myeloid Leukemia: Biologic, Prognostic, and Therapeutic Insights.

    PubMed

    Khaled, Samer; Al Malki, Monzr; Marcucci, Guido

    2016-04-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a biologically complex and molecularly and clinically heterogeneous disease, and its incidence is increasing as the population ages. Unfortunately, currently used "one-size-fits-all" chemotherapy regimens result in cure for only a minority of patients. Although progress has been made in identifying subsets of patients who require chemotherapy alone-as compared with those who require initial chemotherapy followed by allogeneic stem cell transplantation to maximize the chance for cure-clinical and cytogenetic prognosticators are not sufficiently accurate for such a risk-adapted stratification approach. New molecular technologies have allowed for in-depth molecular analyses of AML patients. These studies have revealed novel mutations, epigenetic changes, and/or aberrant expression levels of protein-coding and noncoding genes involved in leukemogenesis. These molecular aberrations are now being increasingly used not only to select risk-adapted treatment strategies, but also to incorporate newer molecularly targeted agents into conventional chemotherapy and/or transplant treatments. The hope is that this approach will lead to a better selection of "personalized" treatments for individual patients at diagnosis, the ability to assess these treatments in real time, and the ability, if necessary, to modify these therapies utilizing molecular endpoints for guidance regarding their antileukemia activity. We review here the state of the art of diagnosis and treatment of AML and provide insights into the emerging novel biomarkers and therapeutic agents that are anticipated to be useful for the implementation of personalized medicine in AML. PMID:27085330

  1. Elovl6 is a poor prognostic predictor in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    FENG, YIN-HSUN; CHEN, WEI-YU; KUO, YU-HSUAN; TUNG, CHAO-LING; TSAO, CHAO-JUNG; SHIAU, AI-LI; WU, CHAO-LIANG

    2016-01-01

    Elongation of long chain fatty acids family member 6 (Elovl6) has been demonstrated to be involved in insulin resistance, obesity and lipogenesis. In addition, it has been reported that the protein is upregulated in human hepatocellular carcinoma and is implicated in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis-associated liver carcinogenesis. Excess body weight has been associated with an increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer and poor prognosis. However, the connection between Elovl6 expression and outcome of breast cancer remains uncertain. Therefore, the present study used immunohistochemical analysis to investigate the expression of Elovl6 in breast cancer tissues from patients who had undergone curative mastectomy. Out of a total of 70 patients, 37.1% of patients exhibited positive Elovl6 expression in breast cancer tissue, whilst 62.9% were considered as negative. Positive Elov16 expression correlated with positive lymph node involvement and shorter recurrence-free survival. However, Elovl6 expression had no association with primary tumor size, lymph node metastasis, stage, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER2 and age. Therefore, positive Elovl6 expression is a poor prognostic factor in patients with breast cancer that have previously undergone surgery, and may function as a potential therapeutic approach in the future, particularly in the scope of obesity related disease. PMID:27347126

  2. Thickness network features for prognostic applications in dementia.

    PubMed

    Raamana, Pradeep Reddy; Weiner, Michael W; Wang, Lei; Beg, Mirza Faisal

    2015-01-01

    Regional analysis of cortical thickness has been studied extensively in building imaging biomarkers for early detection of Alzheimer's disease but not its interregional covariation of thickness. We present novel features based on the inter-regional covariation of cortical thickness. Initially, the cortical labels of each subject are partitioned into small patches (graph nodes) by spatial k-means clustering. A graph is then constructed by establishing a link between 2 nodes if the difference in thickness between the nodes is below a certain threshold. From this binary graph, a thickness network is computed using nodal degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficient measures. Fusing them with multiple kernel learning, it is observed that thickness network features discriminate mild cognitive impairment (MCI) converters from controls (CN) with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.83, 74% sensitivity and 76% specificity on a large subset obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data set. A comparison of predictive utility in Alzheimer's disease and/or CN classification (AUC of 0.92, 80% sensitivity [SENS] and 90% specificity [SPEC]), in discriminating CN from MCI (converters and nonconverters combined; AUC of 0.75, SENS and SPEC of 64% and 73%, respectively) and in discriminating between MCI nonconverters and MCI converters (AUC of 0.68, SENS and SPEC of 65% and 64%) is also presented. ThickNet features as defined here are novel, can be derived from a single magnetic resonance imaging scan, and demonstrate the potential for the computer-aided prognostic applications. PMID:25444603

  3. Identification of prognostic biomarkers for glioblastomas using protein expression profiling

    PubMed Central

    JUNG, YONG; JOO, KYEUNG MIN; SEONG, DONG HO; CHOI, YOON-LA; KONG, DOO-SIK; KIM, YONGHYUN; KIM, MI HYUN; JIN, JUYOUN; SUH, YEON-LIM; SEOL, HO JUN; SHIN, CHUL SOO; LEE, JUNG-IL; KIM, JONG-HYUN; SONG, SANG YONG; NAM, DO-HYUN

    2012-01-01

    A set of proteins reflecting the prognosis of patients have clinical significance since they could be utilized as predictive biomarkers and/or potential therapeutic targets. With the aim of finding novel diagnostic and prognostic markers for glioblastoma (GBM), a tissue microarray (TMA) library consisting of 62 GBMs and 28 GBM-associated normal spots was constructed. Immunohistochemistry against 78 GBM-associated proteins was performed. Expression levels of each protein for each patient were analyzed using an image analysis program and converted to H-score [summation of the intensity grade of staining (0–3) multiplied by the percentage of positive cells corresponding to each grade]. Based on H-score and hierarchical clustering methods, we divided the GBMs into two groups (n=19 and 37) that had significantly different survival lengths (p<0.05). In the two groups, expression of nine proteins (survivin, cyclin E, DCC, TGF-β, CDC25B, histone H1, p-EGFR, p-VEGFR2/3, p16) was significantly changed (q<0.05). Prognosis-predicting potential of these proteins were validated with another independent library of 82 GBM TMAs and a public GBM DNA microarray dataset. In addition, we determined 32 aberrant or mislocalized subcellular protein expression patterns in GBMs compared with relatively normal brain tissues, which could be useful for diagnostic biomarkers of GBM. We therefore suggest that these proteins can be used as predictive biomarkers and/or potential therapeutic targets for GBM. PMID:22179774

  4. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  5. Prognostic factors for clinical outcomes after rotator cuff repair

    PubMed Central

    Pécora, José Otávio Reggi; Malavolta, Eduardo Angeli; Assunção, Jorge Henrique; Gracitelli, Mauro Emílio Conforto; Martins, João Paulo Sobreiro; Ferreira, Arnaldo Amado

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify prognostic factors of postoperative functional outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective case series evaluating patients undergoing rotator cuff repair, analyzed by the UCLA score (pre and 12-month postoperative) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (preoperative). Patients' intrinsic variables related to the injury and intervention were evaluated. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to determine variables impact on postoperative functional assessment. RESULTS: 131 patients were included. The mean UCLA score increased from 13.17 ± 3.77 to 28.73 ± 6.09 (p<0,001). We obtained 65.7% of good and excellent results. Age (r= 0.232, p= 0.004) and reparability of posterosuperior injuries (r= 0.151, p= 0.043) correlated with the functional assessment at 12 months. After multivariate linear regression analysis, only age was associated (p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The surgical treatment of rotator cuff tears lead to good and excellent results in 65.6% of patients. Age was an independent predictor factor with better clinical outcomes by UCLA score in older patients. Level of Evidence IV, Case Series. PMID:26207092

  6. Fault diagnosis and prognostic of solid oxide fuel cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, XiaoJuan; Ye, Qianwen

    2016-07-01

    One of the major hurdles for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) commercialization is poor long-term performance and durability. Accurate fault diagnostic and prognostic technologies are two important tools to improve SOFC durability. In literature, plenty of diagnosis techniques for SOFC systems have been successfully designed. However, no literature studies SOFC fault prognosis approaches. In this paper a unified fault diagnosis and prognosis strategy is presented to identify faults (anode poisoning, cathode humidification or normal) and predict the remaining useful life for SOFC systems. Using a squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) classifier, a diagnosis model is built to identify SOFC different types of faults. After fault detection, two hidden semi-Mark models (HSMMs) are respectively employed to estimate SOFC remaining useful life in the case of anode poisoning and cathode humidification. The simulation results show that the fault recognition rates with the LS-SVM model are at best 97%, and the predicted error of the remaining useful life is within ±20%.

  7. Pretreatment whole blood Epstein-Barr virus-DNA is a significant prognostic marker in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Park, Ji Hyun; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Kim, Shin; Park, Jung Sun; Park, Chan-Sik; Sung, Heungsup; Lee, Sang-Wook; Huh, Jooryung; Suh, Cheolwon

    2016-04-01

    Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in the peripheral blood has become a significant predictor of clinical outcomes in EBV-associated Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). However, due to its relative rarity, prevalence and prognostic role of circulating EBV-DNA has not been well established in Asian patients. Seventy patients with newly diagnosed HL were prospectively registered between October 2007 and January 2013, and underwent pretreatment whole blood (WB) EBV-DNA quantitation using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). WB EBV-DNA in baseline and serial RT-PCR within 1 year were investigated. Clinicopathologic parameters of the patients according to pretreatment WB EBV-DNA were also explored. Twelve patients (17.1 %) demonstrated WB EBV-DNA(+), which was significantly associated to older age, advanced stages, frequent involvements of extranodal sites, low serum albumin and hemoglobin levels, and high international prognostic scores ≥2. Three-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were significantly inferior in patients with pretreatment WB EBV-DNA(+) (53.5 vs 67.0 and 65.6 vs 90.2 %) (p < 0.032 and <0.01). Negatively conversed EBV-DNA within 1 year after chemotherapy also significantly affected favorable EFS (p < 0.01). Taken together, pretreatment WB EBV-DNA(+) may be a significant predictor of inferior EFS and OS over EBV-encoded RNA in situ hybridization (EBER-ISH)(+) in Korean patients with HL. Serial EBV-DNA monitoring following chemotherapy also seems helpful to predict survival outcomes. PMID:26883027

  8. Quantification of the Heterogeneity of Prognostic Cellular Biomarkers in Ewing Sarcoma Using Automated Image and Random Survival Forest Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Haiyue; Branford White, Harriet; Schäfer, Karl L.; Llombart-Bosch, Antonio; Machado, Isidro; Picci, Piero; Hogendoorn, Pancras C. W.; Athanasou, Nicholas A.; Noble, J. Alison; Hassan, A. Bassim

    2014-01-01

    Driven by genomic somatic variation, tumour tissues are typically heterogeneous, yet unbiased quantitative methods are rarely used to analyse heterogeneity at the protein level. Motivated by this problem, we developed automated image segmentation of images of multiple biomarkers in Ewing sarcoma to generate distributions of biomarkers between and within tumour cells. We further integrate high dimensional data with patient clinical outcomes utilising random survival forest (RSF) machine learning. Using material from cohorts of genetically diagnosed Ewing sarcoma with EWSR1 chromosomal translocations, confocal images of tissue microarrays were segmented with level sets and watershed algorithms. Each cell nucleus and cytoplasm were identified in relation to DAPI and CD99, respectively, and protein biomarkers (e.g. Ki67, pS6, Foxo3a, EGR1, MAPK) localised relative to nuclear and cytoplasmic regions of each cell in order to generate image feature distributions. The image distribution features were analysed with RSF in relation to known overall patient survival from three separate cohorts (185 informative cases). Variation in pre-analytical processing resulted in elimination of a high number of non-informative images that had poor DAPI localisation or biomarker preservation (67 cases, 36%). The distribution of image features for biomarkers in the remaining high quality material (118 cases, 104 features per case) were analysed by RSF with feature selection, and performance assessed using internal cross-validation, rather than a separate validation cohort. A prognostic classifier for Ewing sarcoma with low cross-validation error rates (0.36) was comprised of multiple features, including the Ki67 proliferative marker and a sub-population of cells with low cytoplasmic/nuclear ratio of CD99. Through elimination of bias, the evaluation of high-dimensionality biomarker distribution within cell populations of a tumour using random forest analysis in quality controlled tumour

  9. Quantification of the heterogeneity of prognostic cellular biomarkers in ewing sarcoma using automated image and random survival forest analysis.

    PubMed

    Bühnemann, Claudia; Li, Simon; Yu, Haiyue; Branford White, Harriet; Schäfer, Karl L; Llombart-Bosch, Antonio; Machado, Isidro; Picci, Piero; Hogendoorn, Pancras C W; Athanasou, Nicholas A; Noble, J Alison; Hassan, A Bassim

    2014-01-01

    Driven by genomic somatic variation, tumour tissues are typically heterogeneous, yet unbiased quantitative methods are rarely used to analyse heterogeneity at the protein level. Motivated by this problem, we developed automated image segmentation of images of multiple biomarkers in Ewing sarcoma to generate distributions of biomarkers between and within tumour cells. We further integrate high dimensional data with patient clinical outcomes utilising random survival forest (RSF) machine learning. Using material from cohorts of genetically diagnosed Ewing sarcoma with EWSR1 chromosomal translocations, confocal images of tissue microarrays were segmented with level sets and watershed algorithms. Each cell nucleus and cytoplasm were identified in relation to DAPI and CD99, respectively, and protein biomarkers (e.g. Ki67, pS6, Foxo3a, EGR1, MAPK) localised relative to nuclear and cytoplasmic regions of each cell in order to generate image feature distributions. The image distribution features were analysed with RSF in relation to known overall patient survival from three separate cohorts (185 informative cases). Variation in pre-analytical processing resulted in elimination of a high number of non-informative images that had poor DAPI localisation or biomarker preservation (67 cases, 36%). The distribution of image features for biomarkers in the remaining high quality material (118 cases, 104 features per case) were analysed by RSF with feature selection, and performance assessed using internal cross-validation, rather than a separate validation cohort. A prognostic classifier for Ewing sarcoma with low cross-validation error rates (0.36) was comprised of multiple features, including the Ki67 proliferative marker and a sub-population of cells with low cytoplasmic/nuclear ratio of CD99. Through elimination of bias, the evaluation of high-dimensionality biomarker distribution within cell populations of a tumour using random forest analysis in quality controlled tumour

  10. Prognostic factors for clinical failure of exacerbations in elderly outpatients with moderate-to-severe COPD

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Robert; Anzueto, Antonio; Miravitlles, Marc; Arvis, Pierre; Haverstock, Daniel; Trajanovic, Mila; Sethi, Sanjay

    2015-01-01

    Background Acute exacerbations represent a significant burden for patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Each exacerbation episode is frequently associated with a lengthy recovery and impaired quality of life. Prognostic factors for outpatients that may predict poor outcome after treatment with antibiotics recommended in the guidelines, are not fully understood. We aimed to identify pretherapy factors predictive of clinical failure in elderly (≥60 years old) outpatients with acute Anthonisen type 1 exacerbations. Trial registration NCT00656747. Methods Based on the moxifloxacin in AECOPDs (acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) trial (MAESTRAL) database, this study evaluated pretherapy demographic, clinical, sputum bacteriological factors using multivariate logistic regression analysis, with internal validation by bootstrap replicates, to investigate their possible association with clinical failure at end of therapy (EOT) and 8 weeks posttherapy. Results The analyses found that the independent factors predicting clinical failure at EOT were more frequent exacerbations, increased respiratory rate and lower body temperature at exacerbation, treatment with long-acting anticholinergic drugs, and in vitro bacterial resistance to study drug. The independent factors predicting poor outcome at 8 weeks posttherapy included wheezing at preexacerbation, mild or moderate (vs extreme) sleep disturbances, lower body temperature at exacerbation, forced expiratory volume in 1 second <30%, lower body mass index, concomitant systemic corticosteroids for the current exacerbation, maintenance long-acting β2-agonist and long-acting anticholinergic treatments, and positive sputum culture at EOT. Conclusion Several bacteriological, historical, treatment-related factors were identified as predictors of early (EOT) and later (8 weeks posttherapy) clinical failure in this older outpatient population with moderate-to-severe chronic

  11. Serum HE4: An Independent Prognostic Factor in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Lamy, Pierre-Jean; Plassot, Carine; Pujol, Jean-Louis

    2015-01-01

    Human epididymis secretory protein 4 (HE4) is a secreted glycosylated protein encoded by the WAP four-disulfide core domain 2 (WFDC2) gene, located on a chromosome 20 segment that is frequently amplified in many cancers. This study aimed at determining serum HE4 prognostic value in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), following the REMARK guidelines. Serum samples from 346 consecutive patients with histologically proven and previously untreated NSCLC and 41 patients with benign pulmonary disease were collected at the Montpellier-Nimes Academic Hospital. Work-up investigations performed to determine the disease characteristics and treatment algorithms were congruent with international guidelines. HE4 levels in serum were measured with an ELISA test (Fujirebio Diagnostics) that uses two monoclonal antibodies, 2H5 and 3D8, against the C-WFDC domain of HE4. The area under the ROC curve (i.e., overall ability of HE4 to discriminate between controls and patients) was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.738–0.821; z test P <0.0001). Serum HE4 levels were significantly higher in patients with worse performance status, advanced TNM stage and positive nodal status. In the Cox model, overall survival was shorter in patients with high pretreatment serum HE4 (above 140 pmol/L) than in patients with serum H4 level ≤ 140 pmol/L [median survival: 17.7 weeks (95% CI, 11.9 to 24.9) and 46.4 weeks (95% CI, 38.6 to 56.3), respectively; hazard ratio: 1.48 (95% CI, 1.12 to 1.95) for high HE4; adjusted P = 0.0057]. High serum HE4 level at diagnosis is an independent determinant of poor prognosis in NSCLC. PMID:26030627

  12. Wnt7A is a putative prognostic and chemosensitivity marker in human malignant pleural mesothelioma

    PubMed Central

    HIRATA, TOMOMI; ZHENG, QINGFENG; CHEN, ZHAO; KINOSHITA, HIROYASU; OKAMOTO, JUNICHI; KRATZ, JOHANNES; LI, HUI; LUI, NATALIE; DO, HANH; CHENG, TIFFANY; TSENG, HSIN-HUI KATTY; KOIZUMI, KIYOSHI; SHIMIZU, KAZUO; ZHOU, HAI-MENG; JABLONS, DAVID; HE, BIAO

    2015-01-01

    Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a highly aggressive tumor that has a poor prognosis, limited treatment options, and a worldwide incidence that is expected to increase in the next decade. We evaluated Wnt7A expression in 50 surgically resected tumor specimens using quantitative PCR. The expression values, were assessed by clinicopathological factors and K-M and Cox’s regression with OS. The mean level of Wnt7A expression had a significant correlation with International Mesothelioma Interest Group (IMIG) stage (P<0.034), gender, smoking history and ethnicity, respectively (P=0.020, P=0.014, P=0.039). In the univariate analysis, low Wnt7A expression was a significant negative factor for overall survival (P=0.043, HR=2.30). However, multivariate Cox’s regression revealed no significant factors for overall survival (low Wnt7A: P=0.051, HR=2.283; non-epithelioid subtype: P=0.050, HR=2.898). In patients with epithelioid tumors, those with low Wnt7A expression had significantly worse prognosis (P=0.019, HR=2.98). In patients with epithelioid tumors, females had significantly better prognosis than males (P=0.035). In patients who did not have neoadjuvant chemotherapy, prognosis was significantly more favorable for patients with high Wnt7A expression than for those with low Wnt7A expression (P=0.031). Among the patients with low Wnt7A-expressing tumors, those who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy had better prognosis than those who did not (P=0.024). The results of our study suggest that Wnt7A expression is a putative prognostic factor and a predictor of chemosensitivity. PMID:25632963

  13. Prognostic Significance of p16 Expression in Advanced Cervical Cancer Treated With Definitive Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Schwarz, Julie K.; Lewis, James S.; Pfeifer, John; Huettner, Phyllis; Grigsby, Perry

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiation therapy. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective study of 126 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Stages Ib1-IVb cervical cancer treated with radiation. Concurrent cisplatin chemotherapy was given to 108 patients. A tissue microarray (TMA) was constructed from the paraffin-embedded diagnostic biopsy specimens. Immunoperoxidase staining was performed on the TMA and a p16 monoclonal antibody was utilized. IHC p16 extent was evaluated and scored in quartiles: 0 = no staining, 1 = 1-25% of cells staining, 2 = 26 to 50%, 3 = 51 to 75%, and 4 = 76 to 100%. Results: The p16 IHC score was 4 in 115 cases, 3 in 1, 2 in 3 and 0 in 7. There was no relationship between p16 score and tumor histology. Patients with p16-negative tumors were older (mean age at diagnosis 65 vs. 52 years for p16-positive tumors; p = 0.01). The 5-year cause-specific survivals were 33% for p16-negative cases (score = 0) compared with 63% for p16-positive cases (scores 1, 2, 3 or 4; p = 0.07). The 5-year recurrence-free survivals were 34% for those who were p16-negative vs. 57% for those who were p16-positive (p = 0.09). In addition, patients with p16-positive tumors (score > 0) were more likely to be complete metabolic responders as assessed by the 3-month posttherapy 18 [F]-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET)/computed tomograph compared with patients with p16-negative tumors (p = 0.03). Conclusion: p16 expression is predictive of improved survival outcome after chemoradiation therapy for advanced-stage invasive cervical carcinoma. Further testing will be needed to evaluate p16-negative cervical tumors.

  14. Prognostic factors of whiplash-associated disorders: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M; Verhagen, Arianne P; Bekkering, Geertruida E; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Barnsley, Les; Oostendorp, Rob A B; Hendriks, Erik J M

    2003-07-01

    We present a systematic review of prospective cohort studies. Our aim was to assess prognostic factors associated with functional recovery of patients with whiplash injuries. The failure of some patients to recover following whiplash injury has been linked to a number of prognostic factors. However, there is some inconsistency in the literature and there have been no systematic attempts to analyze the level of evidence for prognostic factors in whiplash recovery. Studies were selected for inclusion following a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the database of the Dutch Institute of Allied Health Professions up until April 2002 and hand searches of the reference lists of retrieved articles. Studies were selected if the objective was to assess prognostic factors associated with recovery; the design was a prospective cohort study; the study population included at least an identifiable subgroup of patients suffering from a whiplash injury; and the paper was a full report published in English, German, French or Dutch. The methodological quality was independently assessed by two reviewers. A study was considered to be of 'high quality' if it satisfied at least 50% of the maximum available quality score. Two independent reviewers extracted data and the association between prognostic factors and functional recovery was calculated in terms of risk estimates. Fifty papers reporting on twenty-nine cohorts were included in the review. Twelve cohorts were considered to be of 'high quality'. Because of the heterogeneity of patient selection, type of prognostic factors and outcome measures, no statistical pooling was able to be performed. Strong evidence was found for high initial pain intensity being an adverse prognostic factor. There was strong evidence that for older age, female gender, high acute psychological response, angular deformity of the neck, rear-end collision, and compensation not being associated with an adverse prognosis. Several physical (e

  15. Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Karen A.; Muir, Kenneth R.; Gavin, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score. Methods and Findings Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator

  16. Different prognostic models for different patient populations: validation of a new prognostic model for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in Western Europe

    PubMed Central

    Rietbergen, M M; Witte, B I; Velazquez, E R; Snijders, P J F; Bloemena, E; Speel, E J; Brakenhoff, R H; Kremer, B; Lambin, P; Leemans, C R

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is a major determinant in prognostic risk modelling. Recently, a prognostic model was proposed in which HPV status, comorbidity and nodal stage were the most important prognostic factors to determine high-, intermediate- and low-risk survival groups. Here, we report on the validation of this model using an independent single-institutional cohort. Methods: A total number of 235 patients curatively treated for OPSCC in the period 2000–2011 at the MUMC (Maastricht University Medical Center, The Netherlands) were included. The presence of an oncogenic HPV infection was determined by p16 immunostaining, followed by a high-risk HPV DNA PCR on the p16-positive cases. The model variables included were HPV status, comorbidity and nodal stage. As a measure of model performance, the Harrell's Concordance index (Harrell's C-index) was used. Results: The 5-year overall survival (OS) estimates were 84.6%, 54.5% and 28.7% in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk group, respectively. The difference between the survival curves was highly significant (P<0.001). The Harrell's C-index was 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63–0.75). Conclusion: In this study a previously developed prognostic risk model was validated. This model will help to personalise treatment in OPSCC patients. This model is publicly available at www.predictcancer.org. PMID:25950384

  17. Operating internationally

    SciTech Connect

    Seeley, R.S.

    1994-02-01

    When Enron Power Corp. took over a 28 MW power facility at the former US Naval base in Subic Bay, the Philippines, the company was required to employ 139 people to run the plant. This large labor force was necessary not because of the plant's operational needs, but because of local labor practices and unemployment pressures. Independent power companies have become all too familiar with the high cost and complexity of developing projects in emerging international markets. Some of the most significant issues involve taxation, unfamiliar legal systems, changing regulations, and foreign investment restrictions. In addition, questions about currency exchange, national credit worthiness, and political stability add to the difficulty of international development. However, one of the most daunting challenges centers not on development, but on long-term operations and maintenance (O M). A key concern is finding qualified labor. Most developers and O M companies agree that local people should run the plant, with the top person, or persons, thoroughly trained in the developer's company philosophy.

  18. Supratentorial hemispheric ependymomas: an analysis of 109 adults for survival and prognostic factors.

    PubMed

    Hollon, Todd; Nguyen, Vincent; Smith, Brandon W; Lewis, Spencer; Junck, Larry; Orringer, Daniel A

    2016-08-01

    OBJECTIVE Survival rates and prognostic factors for supratentorial hemispheric ependymomas have not been determined. The authors therefore designed a retrospective study to determine progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and prognostic factors for hemispheric ependymomas. METHODS The study population consisted of 8 patients from our institution and 101 patients from the literature with disaggregated survival information (n = 109). Patient age, sex, tumor side, tumor location, extent of resection (EOR), tumor grade, postoperative chemotherapy, radiation, time to recurrence, and survival were recorded. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were completed to determine survival rates and prognostic factors. RESULTS Anaplastic histology/WHO Grade III tumors were identified in 62% of cases and correlated with older age. Three-, 5-, and 10-year PFS rates were 57%, 51%, and 42%, respectively. Three-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates were 77%, 71%, and 58%, respectively. EOR and tumor grade were identified on both Kaplan-Meier log-rank testing and univariate Cox proportional hazard models as prognostic for PFS and OS. Both EOR and tumor grade remained prognostic on multivariate analysis. Subtotal resection (STR) predicted a worse PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 4.764, p = 0.001) and OS (HR 4.216, p = 0.008). Subgroup survival analysis of patients with STR demonstrated a 5- and 10-year OS of 28% and 0%, respectively. WHO Grade III tumors also had worse PFS (HR 10.2, p = 0.004) and OS (HR 9.1, p = 0.035). Patients with WHO Grade III tumors demonstrated 5- and 10-year OS of 61% and 46%, respectively. Postoperative radiation was not prognostic for PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS A high incidence of anaplastic histology was found in hemispheric ependymomas and was associated with older age. EOR and tumor grade were prognostic factors for PFS and OS on multivariate analysis. STR or WHO Grade III pathology, or both, predicted worse overall prognosis in patients

  19. Course and Prognostic Factors for Neck Pain in the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; van der Velde, Gabrielle; Haldeman, Scott; Holm, Lena W.; Carragee, Eugene J.; Hurwitz, Eric L.; Côté, Pierre; Nordin, Margareta; Peloso, Paul M.; Guzman, Jaime; Cassidy, J. David

    2008-01-01

    Study Design Best evidence synthesis. Objective To undertake a best evidence synthesis on course and prognosis of neck pain and its associated disorders in the general population. Summary of Background Data Knowing the course of neck pain guides expectations for recovery. Identifying prognostic factors assists in planning public policies, formulating interventions, and promoting lifestyle changes to decrease the burden of neck pain. Methods The Bone and Joint Decade 2000 –2010 Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) conducted a critical review of literature published between 1980 and 2006 to assemble the best evidence on neck pain. Findings fromstudiesmeeting criteria for scientific validity were abstracted into evidence tables and included in a best evidence synthesis. Results We found 226 articles on the course and prognostic factors in neck pain and its associated disorders. After critical review, 70 (31) of these were accepted on scientific merit. Six studies related to course and 7 to prognostic factors in the general population. Between half and three quarters of persons in these populations with current neck pain will report neck pain again 1 to 5 years later. Younger age predicted better outcome. General exercise was unassociated with outcome, although regular bicycling predicted poor outcome in 1 study. Psychosocial factors, including psychologic health, coping patterns, and need to socialize, were the strongest prognostic factors. Several potential prognostic factors have not been well studied, including degenerative changes, genetic factors, and compensation policies. Conclusion The Neck Pain Task Force undertook a best evidence synthesis to establish a baseline of the current best evidence on the course and prognosis for this symptom. General exercise was not prognostic of better outcome; however, several psychosocial factors were prognostic of outcome.

  20. Course and Prognostic Factors for Neck Pain in Whiplash-Associated Disorders (WAD)

    PubMed Central

    Holm, Lena W.; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Côté, Pierre; Cassidy, J. David; Haldeman, Scott; Nordin, Margareta; Hurwitz, Eric L.; Carragee, Eugene J.; van der Velde, Gabrielle; Peloso, Paul M.; Guzman, Jaime

    2008-01-01

    Study Design Best evidence synthesis. Objective To perform a best evidence synthesis on the course and prognostic factors for neck pain and its associated disorders in Grades I–III whiplash-associated disorders (WAD). Summary of Background Data Knowledge of the course of recovery of WAD guides expectations for recovery. Identifying prognostic factors assists in planning management and intervention strategies and effective compensation policies to decrease the burden of WAD. Methods The Bone and Joint Decade 2000–2010 Task Force on Neck Pain and its Associated Disorders (Neck Pain Task Force) conducted a critical review of the literature published between 1980 and 2006 to assemble the best evidence on neck pain and its associated disorders. Studies meeting criteria for scientific validity were included in a best evidence synthesis. Results We found 226 articles related to course and prognostic factors in neck pain and its associated disorders. After a critical review, 70 (31%) were accepted on scientific merit; 47 of these studies related to course and prognostic factors in WAD. The evidence suggests that approximately 50% of those with WAD will report neck pain symptoms 1 year after their injuries. Greater initial pain, more symptoms, and greater initial disability predicted slower recovery. Few factors related to the collision itself (for example, direction of the collision, headrest type) were prognostic; however, postinjury psychological factors such as passive coping style, depressed mood, and fear of movement were prognostic for slower or less complete recovery. There is also preliminary evidence that the prevailing compensation system is prognostic for recovery in WAD. Conclusion The Neck Pain Task Force undertook a best evidence synthesis to establish a baseline of the current best evidence on the course and prognosis for WAD. Recovery of WAD seems to be multifactorial.

  1. Clinical Implication of Inflammation-Based Prognostic Score in Pancreatic Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Yamada, Suguru; Fujii, Tsutomu; Yabusaki, Norimitsu; Murotani, Kenta; Iwata, Naoki; Kanda, Mitsuro; Tanaka, Chie; Nakayama, Goro; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Koike, Masahiko; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2016-01-01

    Abstract A variety of systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores have been explored; however, there has been no study to clarify which score could best reflect survival in resected pancreatic cancer patients. Between 2002 and 2014, 379 consecutive patients who underwent curative resection of pancreatic cancer were enrolled. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic index (PI), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) scores for each patient were calculated. Survival of each score was evaluated, and correlations between the score selected on the basis of the prognostic significance and various clinicopathological factors were analyzed. In the analysis of the GPS, the median survival time (MST) was 28.1 months for score 0, 25.6 for score 1, and 17.0 for score 2. As for mGPS, the MST was 25.8 months for score 0, 27.7 for score 1, and 17.0 for score 2. Both scores were found to be significant. On the contrary, there were no statistical differences in MST between various scores obtained using the NLR, PLR, PI, or PNI. Multivariate analysis revealed that lymph node metastasis, positive peritoneal washing cytology, and a GPS score of 2 were significant prognostic factors. There was also statistically significant correlation between the GPS score and tumor location (head), tumor size (≥2.0 cm), bile duct invasion, and duodenal invasion. Our study demonstrated that the GPS could be an independent predictive marker and was superior to other inflammation-based prognostic scores in patients with resected pancreatic cancer. PMID:27149487

  2. Prognostic value of polarized macrophages in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection.

    PubMed

    Shu, Qing-Hua; Ge, Yong-Sheng; Ma, Hua-Xing; Gao, Xiao-Qiang; Pan, Jing-Jing; Liu, Dong; Xu, Ge-Liang; Ma, Jin-Liang; Jia, Wei-Dong

    2016-06-01

    As the most predominant tumour-infiltrating immune cells, tumour-associated macrophages (TAMs) are significant for fostering tumour growth, progression and metastasis. CD68-positive TAMs display dissimilarly polarized programmes comprising CD11c-positive pro-inflammatory macrophages (M1) and CD206-positive immunosuppressive macrophages (M2). The aim of this study is to determine the prognostic significance of diametrically polarized TAMs in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and their application to risk stratification of patients according to their specific prognostic values. This study included 80 consecutive patients with HCC, and we evaluated diametrically polarized functional status of macrophages by immunohistochemical staining of CD68, CD11c and CD206. Prognostic values and clinicopathologic features were assessed in these patients. High versus low CD11c-positive TAM density (P = 0.005) and low versus high CD206-positive TAM density (P = 0.002) were associated with better overall survival, whereas CD68-positive TAM density had no prognostic significance (low versus high, P = 0.065). Furthermore, the presence of these positive staining macrophages did not show any prognostic significance for recurrence-free survival (all P > 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified CD11c-positive and CD206-positive TAMs as an independent prognostic factor (P < 0.001, P = 0.031, respectively). Intratumoural infiltration of diametrically polarized TAMs, a novel identified independent prognostic factor for survival in patients with HCC, could be combined with the TNM stage and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage to improve a risk stratification system. PMID:26843477

  3. Prognostic significance of NQO1 expression in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Wakai, Toshifumi; Shirai, Yoshio; Sakata, Jun; Matsuda, Yasunobu; Korit, Pavel V; Takamura, Masaaki; Ajioka, Yoichi; Hatakeyama, Katsuyoshi

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the association between the immunohistochemical expression of NAD(P) H:quinone oxidoreductase-1 (NQO1) and nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) in resected specimens of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and to elucidate the prognostic value of NQO1 and Nrf2 expression. A retrospective analysis was conducted of 34 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for ICC. Immunohistochemistry of the resected specimens was conducted using each of the following primary monoclonal antibodies against NQO1 and Nrf2. Of the 34 patients, 23 were classified as having tumors with NQO1-positive expression and 11 had tumors with loss of NQO1 expression, whereas 22 patients had tumors with Nrf2-positive expression and 12 had tumors with loss of Nrf2 expression. NQO1 expression showed a positive association with Nrf2 expression (p=0.005). Loss of NQO1 expression was more frequent in tumor specimens that were moderately or poorly differentiated (11/26; 42%) than in well-differentiated tumors (0/8; 0%; p=0.034). Post-resection survival was significantly worse in patients with tumors with loss of NQO1 expression than in patients with NQO1-positive tumors (cumulative 5 -year survival rate of 0% and 51%, respectively; p=0.005). Nrf2 expression was not associated with survival after resection (p=0.287). The Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that lymph node involvement (p<0.001) and loss of NQO1 expression (p<0.001) had an independent adverse effect on survival. Loss of NQO1 expression reflects dedifferentiation and thus indicates a poor prognosis for patients undergoing resection for ICC. PMID:21577322

  4. Prognostic significance of hematological profiles in melanoma patients.

    PubMed

    Gandini, Sara; Ferrucci, Pier Francesco; Botteri, Edoardo; Tosti, Giulio; Barberis, Massimo; Pala, Laura; Battaglia, Angelo; Clerici, Alessandra; Spadola, Giuseppe; Cocorocchio, Emilia; Martinoli, Chiara

    2016-10-01

    Cancer-related inflammation may play an important role in disease progression and patient outcome, and could be easily monitored through indirect parameters routinely evaluated at diagnosis. Here, we investigated if peripheral blood cells and the ratios of neutrophils to lymphocytes (NLR) and of lymphocytes to monocytes (LMR) as surrogate markers of cancer related inflammation are associated with disease progression and survival of melanoma patients at any stage of the disease. Records of 1,182 melanoma patients included in an Institutional tumor registry in the period 2000-2010, were reviewed. Among them, 584 patients with a cutaneous or unknown primary melanoma and available pre-operative blood tests were analyzed. Survival was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and analyzed using Log-rank test, Cox regression and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. We found that patients presenting with distant metastases had higher leukocytes, neutrophils and monocytes, and lower lymphocytes compared to Stage I-III patients. Furthermore, at a single-patient level, hematological profiles changed on disease progression from regional to distant metastatic, with significantly increased circulating leukocytes, neutrophils and monocytes, and decreased lymphocytes. Peripheral blood cell counts were not associated with survival of patients with a localized or regionally metastasized melanoma. Instead, in Stage IV patients, leukocytes (p = 0.001), neutrophils (p = 0.0002), monocytes (p = 0.002), NLR (p < 0.0001) and LMR (p = 0.005) were all significantly associated with survival, independently of other known prognostic factors. These results suggest that cellular components of peripheral blood do count for survival of patients with advanced melanoma. PMID:27252119

  5. Brainstem gangliogliomas: prognostic factors, surgical indications and functional outcomes.

    PubMed

    Pan, Chang-Cun; Chen, Xin; Xu, Cheng; Wu, Wen-Hao; Zhang, Peng; Wang, Yu; Wu, Tao; Tang, Jie; Xiao, Xin-Ru; Wu, Zhen; Zhang, Jun-Ting; Zhang, Li-Wei

    2016-07-01

    To explore the prognostic factors and discuss the surgical indications of brainstem gangliogliomas. Twenty-one patients with brainstem ganglioglioma were surgically treated at our hospital between 2006 and 2014. The clinical, radiological, operative, and pathological findings of these patients were retrospectively reviewed. The 3-years overall survival and event-free survival (EFS) rates were 90.5 % and 68.4 %, respectively. Four patients (4/18, 22 %) experienced a recurrence with a mean recurrence-free survival of 5.5 months and a mean follow-up of 37 months. Three patients died of surgery-related complications. Three growth patterns were identified: exophytic (6/21), intrinsic (2/21), and endo-exophytic (13/21). Eight patients (8/15, 53 %) harbored a BRAF V600E mutation. All recurrent tumors were endo-exophytic, and except the one without molecular information, were BRAF V600E mutants. A Cox hazard proportion ratio model was used to identify factors influencing EFS, including sex, age, location, growth patterns, extent of resection (EOR), and BRAF V600E mutation status. On univariate analysis, none of these factors reached statistical significance. Among them, EOR and growth patterns were strongly associated with each other (Fisher's exact test, P < 0.01). A multivariate analysis demonstrated that growth patterns were the only factor associated with EFS (P = 0.02; HR 49.05; 95 % CI 1.76-1365.13). Growth patterns may be useful to select surgery candidates and predict prognosis for patients with brainstem gangliogliomas. BRAF V600E was frequently present and appeared to be associated with shorter recurrence-free survival. Studies on BRAF V600E-targeted therapy for patients with high surgical risks are needed. PMID:27112924

  6. Interleukin-6 as a Prognostic Biomarker in Ruptured Intracra