Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for longitudinal brain morphometry

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos; Herskovits, Edward H

2011-01-01

Identifying interactions among brain regions from structural magnetic-resonance images presents one of the major challenges in computational neuroanatomy. We propose a Bayesian data-mining approach to the detection of longitudinal morphological changes in the human brain. Our method uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent evolving inter-regional dependencies. The major advantage of dynamic Bayesian network modeling is that it can represent complicated interactions among temporal processes. We validated our approach by analyzing a simulated atrophy study, and found that this approach requires only a small number of samples to detect the ground-truth temporal model. We further applied dynamic Bayesian network modeling to a longitudinal study of normal aging and mild cognitive impairment — the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. We found that interactions among regional volume-change rates for the mild cognitive impairment group are different from those for the normal-aging group. PMID:21963916

Age structure and cooperation in coevolutionary games on dynamic network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zilong; Hu, Zhenhua; Zhou, Xiaoping; Yi, Jingzhang

2015-04-01

Our proposed model imitates the growth of a population and describes the age structure and the level of cooperation in games on dynamic network with continuous changes of structure and topology. The removal of nodes and links caused by age-dependent attack, together with the nodes addition standing for the newborns of population, badly ruins Matthew effect in this coevolutionary process. Though the network is generated by growth and preferential attachment, it degenerates into random network and it is no longer heterogeneous. When the removal of nodes and links is equal to the addition of nodes and links, the size of dynamic network is maintained in steady-state, so is the low level of cooperation. Severe structure variation, homogeneous topology and continuous invasion of new defection jointly make dynamic network unsuitable for the survival of cooperator even when the probability with which the newborn players initially adopt the strategy cooperation is high, while things change slightly when the connections of newborn players are restricted. Fortunately, moderate interactions in a generation trigger an optimal recovering process to encourage cooperation. The model developed in this paper outlines an explanation of the cohesion changes in the development process of an organization. Some suggestions for cooperative behavior improvement are given in the end.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

A game dynamic model for delayer strategies in vaccinating behaviour for pediatric infectious diseases.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Bauch, C T

2010-12-07

Several studies have found that some parents delay the age at which their children receive pediatric vaccines due to perception of higher vaccine risk at the recommended age of vaccination. This has been particularly apparently during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella scare in the United Kingdom. Under a voluntary vaccination policy, vaccine coverage in certain age groups is a potentially complex interplay between vaccinating behaviour, disease dynamics, and age-specific risk factors. Here, we construct an age-structured game dynamic model, where individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to imitation dynamics depending on age-dependent disease prevalence and perceived risk of vaccination. Individuals may be timely vaccinators, delayers, or non-vaccinators. The model exhibits multiple equilibria and a broad range of possible dynamics. For certain parameter regimes, the proportion of timely vaccinators and delayers oscillate in an anti-phase fashion in response to oscillations in infection prevalence. Under an exogenous change to the perceived risk of vaccination as might occur during a vaccine scare, the model can also capture an increase in delayer strategists similar in magnitude to that observed during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine scare in the United Kingdom. Our model also shows that number of delayers steadily increases with increasing severity of the scare, whereas it saturates to specific value with increases in duration of the scare. Finally, by comparing the model dynamics with and without the option of a delayer strategy, we show that adding a third delayer strategy can have a stabilizing effect on model dynamics. In an era where individual choice--rather than accessibility--is becoming an increasingly important determinant of vaccine uptake, more infectious disease models may need to use game theory or related techniques to determine vaccine uptake. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay.

PubMed

Akimenko, Vitalii; Anguelov, Roumen

2017-12-01

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Special issue dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. Preface.

PubMed

Hinow, Peter; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2015-08-01

This special issue is dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. The topics of the 12 articles appearing in this special issue include evolutionary dynamics of population growth, spatio-temporal dynamics in reaction-diffusion biological models, transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, modeling of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitals, analysis of Prion models, age-structured models in ecology and epidemiology, modeling of immune response to infections, modeling of cancer growth, etc. These topics partially represent the broad areas of Glenn's research interest.

A nonlinear dynamic age-structured model of e-commerce in spain: Stability analysis of the equilibrium by delay and stochastic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgos, C.; Cortés, J.-C.; Shaikhet, L.; Villanueva, R.-J.

2018-11-01

First, we propose a deterministic age-structured epidemiological model to study the diffusion of e-commerce in Spain. Afterwards, we determine the parameters (death, birth and growth rates) of the underlying demographic model as well as the parameters (transmission of the use of e-commerce rates) of the proposed epidemiological model that best fit real data retrieved from the Spanish National Statistical Institute. Motivated by the two following facts: first the dynamics of acquiring the use of a new technology as e-commerce is mainly driven by the feedback after interacting with our peers (family, friends, mates, mass media, etc.), hence having a certain delay, and second the inherent uncertainty of sampled real data and the social complexity of the phenomena under analysis, we introduce aftereffect and stochastic perturbations in the initial deterministic model. This leads to a delayed stochastic model for e-commerce. We then investigate sufficient conditions in order to guarantee the stability in probability of the equilibrium point of the dynamic e-commerce delayed stochastic model. Our theoretical findings are numerically illustrated using real data.

A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Evolution in Stage-Structured Populations

PubMed Central

Barfield, Michael; Holt, Robert D.; Gomulkiewicz, Richard

2016-01-01

For many organisms, stage is a better predictor of demographic rates than age. Yet no general theoretical framework exists for understanding or predicting evolution in stage-structured populations. Here, we provide a general modeling approach that can be used to predict evolution and demography of stage-structured populations. This advances our ability to understand evolution in stage-structured populations to a level previously available only for populations structured by age. We use this framework to provide the first rigorous proof that Lande’s theorem, which relates adaptive evolution to population growth, applies to stage-classified populations, assuming only normality and that evolution is slow relative to population dynamics. We extend this theorem to allow for different means or variances among stages. Our next major result is the formulation of Price’s theorem, a fundamental law of evolution, for stage-structured populations. In addition, we use data from Trillium grandiflorum to demonstrate how our models can be applied to a real-world population and thereby show their practical potential to generate accurate projections of evolutionary and population dynamics. Finally, we use our framework to compare rates of evolution in age- versus stage-structured populations, which shows how our methods can yield biological insights about evolution in stage-structured populations. PMID:21460563

The evolution of labile traits in sex- and age-structured populations.

PubMed

Childs, Dylan Z; Sheldon, Ben C; Rees, Mark

2016-03-01

Many quantitative traits are labile (e.g. somatic growth rate, reproductive timing and investment), varying over the life cycle as a result of behavioural adaptation, developmental processes and plastic responses to the environment. At the population level, selection can alter the distribution of such traits across age classes and among generations. Despite a growing body of theoretical research exploring the evolutionary dynamics of labile traits, a data-driven framework for incorporating such traits into demographic models has not yet been developed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being used to understand the interplay between changes in labile characters, life histories and population dynamics. One limitation of the IPM approach is that it relies on phenotypic associations between parents and offspring traits to capture inheritance. However, it is well-established that many different processes may drive these associations, and currently, no clear consensus has emerged on how to model micro-evolutionary dynamics in an IPM framework. We show how to embed quantitative genetic models of inheritance of labile traits into age-structured, two-sex models that resemble standard IPMs. Commonly used statistical tools such as GLMs and their mixed model counterparts can then be used for model parameterization. We illustrate the methodology through development of a simple model of egg-laying date evolution, parameterized using data from a population of Great tits (Parus major). We demonstrate how our framework can be used to project the joint dynamics of species' traits and population density. We then develop a simple extension of the age-structured Price equation (ASPE) for two-sex populations, and apply this to examine the age-specific contributions of different processes to change in the mean phenotype and breeding value. The data-driven framework we outline here has the potential to facilitate greater insight into the nature of selection and its consequences in settings where focal traits vary over the lifetime through ontogeny, behavioural adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, as well as providing a potential bridge between theoretical and empirical studies of labile trait variation. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Poverty dynamics, poverty thresholds and mortality: An age-stage Markovian model

PubMed Central

Rehkopf, David; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C.

2018-01-01

Recent studies have examined the risk of poverty throughout the life course, but few have considered how transitioning in and out of poverty shape the dynamic heterogeneity and mortality disparities of a cohort at each age. Here we use state-by-age modeling to capture individual heterogeneity in crossing one of three different poverty thresholds (defined as 1×, 2× or 3× the “official” poverty threshold) at each age. We examine age-specific state structure, the remaining life expectancy, its variance, and cohort simulations for those above and below each threshold. Survival and transitioning probabilities are statistically estimated by regression analyses of data from the Health and Retirement Survey RAND data-set, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Using the results of these regression analyses, we parameterize discrete state, discrete age matrix models. We found that individuals above all three thresholds have higher annual survival than those in poverty, especially for mid-ages to about age 80. The advantage is greatest when we classify individuals based on 1× the “official” poverty threshold. The greatest discrepancy in average remaining life expectancy and its variance between those above and in poverty occurs at mid-ages for all three thresholds. And fewer individuals are in poverty between ages 40-60 for all three thresholds. Our findings are consistent with results based on other data sets, but also suggest that dynamic heterogeneity in poverty and the transience of the poverty state is associated with income-related mortality disparities (less transience, especially of those above poverty, more disparities). This paper applies the approach of age-by-stage matrix models to human demography and individual poverty dynamics. In so doing we extend the literature on individual poverty dynamics across the life course. PMID:29768416

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Mathematical model of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience in the within-host dynamics between a Plasmodium parasite and the immune system.

PubMed

Yan, Yi; Adam, Brian; Galinski, Mary; C Kissinger, Jessica; Moreno, Alberto; Gutierrez, Juan B

2015-12-01

We developed a coupled age-structured partial differential equation model to capture the disease dynamics during blood-stage malaria. The addition of age structure for the parasite population, with respect to previous models, allows us to better characterize the interaction between the malaria parasite and red blood cells during infection. Here we prove that the system we propose is well-posed and there exist at least two global states. We further demonstrate that the numerical simulation of the system coincides with clinically observed outcomes of primary and secondary malaria infection. The well-posedness of this system guarantees that the behavior of the model remains smooth, bounded, and continuously dependent on initial conditions; calibration with clinical data will constrain domains of parameters and variables to physiological ranges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Daut, Elizabeth F.; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J.; Ivanek, Renata

2016-01-01

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade. PMID:26816214

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting C allocation in ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew; Sierra, Carlos

2017-04-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. However, it is uncertain how some vegetation dynamics such as the allocation of carbon to different ecosystem compartments should be represented in models. The assumptions behind model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. Here, we asses model performance by calculating the age of the carbon in the system and in each compartment, and the overall transit time of C in the system. We used these diagnostics to assess the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the rates of C cycling in vegetation. First, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find the best set of parameters for the different model structures. Second, we calculated C stocks, respiration fluxes, radiocarbon values, ages, and transit times. We found a good fit of the three model structures to the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed and reduce model equifinality. Differences in model structures had a small impact on predicting ecosystem C compartments, but overall they resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of a storage compartment had an important impact on predicting system ages and transit times. In the case of the models with 1 or 2 storage compartments, the age of carbon in the system and in each of the compartments was distributed more towards younger ages than in the model that had no storage; the mean system age of these two models with storage was 80 years younger than in the model without storage. As expected from these age distributions, the mean transit time for the two models with storage compartments was 50 years faster than for the model without storage. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure and could largely help to reduce uncertainties in model predictions. Furthermore, by considering age and transit times of C in vegetation compartments as distributions, not only their mean values, we obtain additional insights on the temporal dynamics of carbon use, storage, and allocation to plant parts, which not only depends on the rate at which this C is transferred in and out of the compartments, but also on the stochastic nature of the process itself.

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

Achilles tendons from decorin- and biglycan-null mouse models have inferior mechanical and structural properties predicted by an image-based empirical damage model

PubMed Central

Gordon, J.A.; Freedman, B.R.; Zuskov, A.; Iozzo, R.V.; Birk, D.E.; Soslowsky, L.J.

2015-01-01

Achilles tendons are a common source of pain and injury, and their pathology may originate from aberrant structure function relationships. Small leucine rich proteoglycans (SLRPs) influence mechanical and structural properties in a tendon-specific manner. However, their roles in the Achilles tendon have not been defined. The objective of this study was to evaluate the mechanical and structural differences observed in mouse Achilles tendons lacking class I SLRPs; either decorin or biglycan. In addition, empirical modeling techniques based on mechanical and image-based measures were employed. Achilles tendons from decorin-null (Dcn−/−) and biglycan-null (Bgn−/−) C57BL/6 female mice (N=102) were used. Each tendon underwent a dynamic mechanical testing protocol including simultaneous polarized light image capture to evaluate both structural and mechanical properties of each Achilles tendon. An empirical damage model was adapted for application to genetic variation and for use with image based structural properties to predict tendon dynamic mechanical properties. We found that Achilles tendons lacking decorin and biglycan had inferior mechanical and structural properties that were age dependent; and that simple empirical models, based on previously described damage models, were predictive of Achilles tendon dynamic modulus in both decorin- and biglycan-null mice. PMID:25888014

Achilles tendons from decorin- and biglycan-null mouse models have inferior mechanical and structural properties predicted by an image-based empirical damage model.

PubMed

Gordon, J A; Freedman, B R; Zuskov, A; Iozzo, R V; Birk, D E; Soslowsky, L J

2015-07-16

Achilles tendons are a common source of pain and injury, and their pathology may originate from aberrant structure function relationships. Small leucine rich proteoglycans (SLRPs) influence mechanical and structural properties in a tendon-specific manner. However, their roles in the Achilles tendon have not been defined. The objective of this study was to evaluate the mechanical and structural differences observed in mouse Achilles tendons lacking class I SLRPs; either decorin or biglycan. In addition, empirical modeling techniques based on mechanical and image-based measures were employed. Achilles tendons from decorin-null (Dcn(-/-)) and biglycan-null (Bgn(-/-)) C57BL/6 female mice (N=102) were used. Each tendon underwent a dynamic mechanical testing protocol including simultaneous polarized light image capture to evaluate both structural and mechanical properties of each Achilles tendon. An empirical damage model was adapted for application to genetic variation and for use with image based structural properties to predict tendon dynamic mechanical properties. We found that Achilles tendons lacking decorin and biglycan had inferior mechanical and structural properties that were age dependent; and that simple empirical models, based on previously described damage models, were predictive of Achilles tendon dynamic modulus in both decorin- and biglycan-null mice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic.

PubMed

d'Albis, Hippolyte; Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle; Djemai, Elodie; Ducrot, Arnaud

2012-01-01

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

Sample entropy and regularity dimension in complexity analysis of cortical surface structure in early Alzheimer's disease and aging.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Pham, Tuan D

2013-05-15

We apply for the first time the sample entropy (SampEn) and regularity dimension model for measuring signal complexity to quantify the structural complexity of the brain on MRI. The concept of the regularity dimension is based on the theory of chaos for studying nonlinear dynamical systems, where power laws and entropy measure are adopted to develop the regularity dimension for modeling a mathematical relationship between the frequencies with which information about signal regularity changes in various scales. The sample entropy and regularity dimension of MRI-based brain structural complexity are computed for early Alzheimer's disease (AD) elder adults and age and gender-matched non-demented controls, as well as for a wide range of ages from young people to elder adults. A significantly higher global cortical structure complexity is detected in AD individuals (p<0.001). The increase of SampEn and the regularity dimension are also found to be accompanied with aging which might indicate an age-related exacerbation of cortical structural irregularity. The provided model can be potentially used as an imaging bio-marker for early prediction of AD and age-related cognitive decline. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the multicellular homeostasis with a cell-based discrete receptor dynamics model: The non-mutational origin of cancer and aging.

PubMed

Lou, Yuting; Chen, Yu

2016-09-07

The purpose of the study is to investigate the multicellular homeostasis in epithelial tissues over very large timescales. Inspired by the receptor dynamics of IBCell model proposed by Rejniak et al. an on-grid agent-based model for multicellular system is constructed. Instead of observing the multicellular architectural morphologies, the diversity of homeostatic states is quantitatively analyzed through a substantial number of simulations by measuring three new order parameters, the phenotypic population structure, the average proliferation age and the relaxation time to stable homeostasis. Nearby the interfaces of distinct homeostatic phases in 3D phase diagrams of the three order parameters, intermediate quasi-stable phases of slow dynamics that features quasi-stability with a large spectrum of relaxation timescales are found. A further exploration on the static and dynamic correlations among the three order parameters reveals that the quasi-stable phases evolve towards two terminations, tumorigenesis and degeneration, which are respectively accompanied by rejuvenation and aging. With the exclusion of the environmental impact and the mutational strategies, the results imply that cancer and aging may share the non-mutational origin in the intrinsic slow dynamics of the multicellular systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

PubMed

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N; Michalski, Anatoli I; Novoseltseva, Janna A; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Carey, James R; Ellis, Alicia M

2012-01-01

Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0)) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0) that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0) was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0) is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0) ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field.

Simulated cavity tree dynamics under alternative timber harvest regimes

Treesearch

Zhaofei Fan; Stephen R Shifley; Frank R Thompson; David R Larsen

2004-01-01

We modeled cavity tree abundance on a landscape as a function of forest stand age classes and as a function of aggregate stand size classes.We explored the impact of five timber harvest regimes on cavity tree abundance on a 3261 ha landscape in southeast Missouri, USA, by linking the stand level cavity tree distribution model to the landscape age structure simulated by...

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

PubMed Central

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field. PMID:22724022

Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

2014-02-01

The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

Accounting for age Structure in Ponderosa Pine Ecosystem Analyses: Integrating Management, Disturbance Histories and Observations with the BIOME-BGC Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, K. A.; Law, B.; Thornton, P.

2003-12-01

Disturbance and management regimes in forested ecosystems have been recently highlighted as important factors contributing to quantification of carbon stocks and fluxes. Disturbance events, such as stand-replacing fires and current management regimes that emphasize understory and tree thinning are primary suspects influencing ecosystem processes, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests of the Pacific Northwest. Several recent analyses have compared simulated to measured component stocks and fluxes of carbon in Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa var. Laws) at 12 sites ranging from 9 to 300 years in central Oregon (Law et al. 2001, Law et al. 2003) using the BIOME-BGC model. Major emphases on ecosystem model developments include improving allocation logic, integrating ecosystem processes with disturbance such as fire and including nitrogen in biogeochemical cycling. In Law et al. (2001, 2003), field observations prompted BIOME-BGC improvements including dynamic allocation of carbon to fine root mass through the life of a stand. A sequence of simulations was also designed to represent both management and disturbance histories for each site, however, current age structure of each sites wasn't addressed. Age structure, or cohort management has largely been ignored by ecosystem models, however, some studies have sought to incorporate stand age with disturbance and management (e.g. Hibbard et al. 2003). In this analyses, we regressed tree ages against height (R2 = 0.67) to develop a proportional distribution of age structure for each site. To preserve the integrity of the comparison between Law et al. (2003) and this study, we maintained the same timing of harvest, however, based on the distribution of age structures, we manipulated the amount of removal. Harvest by Law et al. (2003) was set at stand-replacement (99%) levels to simulate clear-cutting and reflecting the average top 10% of the age in each plot. For the young sites, we set removal at 73%, 51% and 61% for sites averaging 9,16 and 23 years, respectively. It was assumed that changes in long-term pools (e.g. soil C) were negligible within these timeframes. In Law et al. (2003), the model performed well for old and mature sites, however, model simulations of the younger sites (9-50Y) were weak compared to NEP estimates from observations. Error for the young plots in Law et al. (2003) ranged from 150 - >400% of observed NEP. By accounting for the observed age structure through harvest removal, model error from this study ranged from 20-90% in young plots. This study is one of a few that have sought to account for age structure in simulating ecosystem dynamics and processes.

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

A non-local structural derivative model for characterization of ultraslow diffusion in dense colloids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yingjie; Chen, Wen

2018-03-01

Ultraslow diffusion has been observed in numerous complicated systems. Its mean squared displacement (MSD) is not a power law function of time, but instead a logarithmic function, and in some cases grows even more slowly than the logarithmic rate. The distributed-order fractional diffusion equation model simply does not work for the general ultraslow diffusion. Recent study has used the local structural derivative to describe ultraslow diffusion dynamics by using the inverse Mittag-Leffler function as the structural function, in which the MSD is a function of inverse Mittag-Leffler function. In this study, a new stretched logarithmic diffusion law and its underlying non-local structural derivative diffusion model are proposed to characterize the ultraslow diffusion in aging dense colloidal glass at both the short and long waiting times. It is observed that the aging dynamics of dense colloids is a class of the stretched logarithmic ultraslow diffusion processes. Compared with the power, the logarithmic, and the inverse Mittag-Leffler diffusion laws, the stretched logarithmic diffusion law has better precision in fitting the MSD of the colloidal particles at high densities. The corresponding non-local structural derivative diffusion equation manifests clear physical mechanism, and its structural function is equivalent to the first-order derivative of the MSD.

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

PubMed

Prem, Kiesha; Cook, Alex R; Jit, Mark

2017-09-01

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

Elastically driven intermittent microscopic dynamics in soft solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouzid, Mehdi; Colombo, Jader; Barbosa, Lucas Vieira; Del Gado, Emanuela

2017-06-01

Soft solids with tunable mechanical response are at the core of new material technologies, but a crucial limit for applications is their progressive aging over time, which dramatically affects their functionalities. The generally accepted paradigm is that such aging is gradual and its origin is in slower than exponential microscopic dynamics, akin to the ones in supercooled liquids or glasses. Nevertheless, time- and space-resolved measurements have provided contrasting evidence: dynamics faster than exponential, intermittency and abrupt structural changes. Here we use 3D computer simulations of a microscopic model to reveal that the timescales governing stress relaxation, respectively, through thermal fluctuations and elastic recovery are key for the aging dynamics. When thermal fluctuations are too weak, stress heterogeneities frozen-in upon solidification can still partially relax through elastically driven fluctuations. Such fluctuations are intermittent, because of strong correlations that persist over the timescale of experiments or simulations, leading to faster than exponential dynamics.

Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting

PubMed Central

Ajelli, Marco; Yang, Zhenhua; Merler, Stefano; Furlanello, Cesare; Kirschner, Denise

2011-01-01

Evidence of preferential mixing through selected social routes has been suggested for the transmission of tuberculosis (TB) infection in low burden settings. A realistic modelization of these contact routes is needed to appropriately assess the impact of individually targeted control strategies, such as contact network investigation of index cases and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). We propose an age-structured, socio-demographic individual based model (IBM) with a realistic, time-evolving structure of preferential contacts in a population. In particular, transmission within households, schools and work-places, together with a component of casual, distance-dependent contacts are considered. We also compared the model against two other formulations having no social structure of contacts (homogeneous mixing transmission): a baseline deterministic model without age structure and an age-structured IBM. The socio-demographic IBM better fitted recent longitudinal data on TB epidemiology in Arkansas, USA, which serves as an example of a low burden setting. Inclusion of age structure in the model proved fundamental to capturing actual proportions of reactivated TB cases (as opposed to recently transmitted) as well as profiling age-group specific incidence. The socio-demographic structure additionally provides a prediction of TB transmission rates (the rate of infection in household contacts and the rate of secondary cases in household and workplace contacts). These results suggest that the socio-demographic IBM is an optimal choice for evaluating current control strategies, including contact network investigation of index cases, and the simulation of alternative scenarios, particularly for TB eradication targets. PMID:21906603

Population dynamics and evaluation of alternative management strategies for nonnative Lake Trout in Priest Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush have been introduced widely throughout the western USA to enhance recreational fisheries, but high predatory demand can create challenges for management of yield and trophy fisheries alike. Lake Trout were introduced to Priest Lake, Idaho, during the 1920s, but few fishery-independent data are available to guide current or future management actions. We collected fishery-independent data to describe population dynamics and evaluate potential management scenarios using an age-structured population model. Lake Trout in Priest Lake were characterized by fast growth at young ages, which resulted in young age at maturity. However, adult growth rates and body condition were lower than for other Lake Trout populations. High rates of skipped spawning (>50%) were also observed. Model projections indicated that the population was growing (λ = 1.03). Eradication could be achieved by increasing annual mortality to 0.32, approximately twice the current rate. A protected slot length limit could increase population length-structure, but few fish grew fast enough to exit the slot. In contrast, a juvenile removal scenario targeting age-2 to age-5 Lake Trout maintained short-term harvest of trophy-length individuals while reducing overall population abundance.

Aging kinetics of levoglucosan orientational glass as a rate dispersion process and consequences for the heterogeneous dynamics view

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Righetti, Maria Cristina; Tombari, Elpidio; Johari, G. P., E-mail: joharig@mcmaster.ca

Aging kinetics of a glass is currently modeled in terms of slowing of its α-relaxation dynamics, whose features are interpreted in terms of dynamic heterogeneity, i.e., formation and decay of spatially and temporally distinct nm-size regions. To test the merits of this view, we studied the calorimetric effects of aging an orientational glass of levoglucosan crystal in which such regions would not form in the same way as they form in liquids, and persist in structural glasses, because there is no liquid-like molecular diffusion in the crystal. By measuring the heat capacity, C{sub p}, we determined the change in themore » enthalpy, H, and the entropy, S, during two aging-protocols: (a) keeping the samples isothermally at temperature, T{sub a}, and measuring the changes after different aging times, t{sub a}, and (b) keeping the samples at different T{sub a}s and measuring the changes after the same t{sub a}. A model-free analysis of the data shows that as t{sub a} is increased (procedure (a)), H and S decrease according to a dispersive rate kinetics, and as T{sub a} is increased (procedure (b)), H and S first increase, reach a local maximum at a certain T{sub a}, and then decrease. Even though there is no translational diffusion to produce (liquid-like) free volume, and no translational-rotational decoupling, the aging features are indistinguishable from those of structural glasses. We also find that the Kohlrausch parameter, originally fitted to the glass-aging data, decreases with decrease in T{sub a}, which is incompatible with the current use of the aging data for estimating the α-relaxation time. We argue that the vibrational state of a glass is naturally incompatible with its configurational state, and both change on aging until they are compatible, in the equilibrium liquid. So, dipolar fluctuations seen as the α-relaxation would not be the same motions that cause aging. We suggest that aging kinetics is intrinsically dispersive with its own characteristic rate constant and it does not yield the α-relaxation rate. In this view, thermodynamic and other properties define the fictive temperature; the real or imaginary components of a dynamic property do not define it. While particles’ overall motions may still play a crucial role in (structural) glass physics, we conclude that translational diffusion alone is not a requirement for structure stabilization on aging of a kinetically frozen state.« less

Imitation dynamics of vaccine decision-making behaviours based on the game theory.

PubMed

Yang, Junyuan; Martcheva, Maia; Chen, Yuming

2016-01-01

Based on game theory, we propose an age-structured model to investigate the imitation dynamics of vaccine uptake. We first obtain the existence and local stability of equilibria. We show that Hopf bifurcation can occur. We also establish the global stability of the boundary equilibria and persistence of the disease. The theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Communication: Effect of density on the physical aging of pressure-densified polymethylmethacrylate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casalini, R.; Roland, C. M.

2017-09-01

The rate of physical aging of glassy polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA), followed from the change in the secondary relaxation with aging, is found to be independent of the density, the latter controlled by the pressure during glass formation. Thus, the aging behavior of the secondary relaxation is the same whether the glass is more compacted or less dense than the corresponding equilibrium liquid. This equivalence in aging of glasses formed under different pressures indicates that local packing is the dominant variable governing the glassy dynamics. The fact that pressure densification yields different glass structures is at odds with a model for non-associated materials having dynamic properties exhibited by PMMA, such as density scaling of the relaxation time and isochronal superposition of the relaxation dispersion.

Dynamics of Biomarkers in Relation to Aging and Mortality

PubMed Central

Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.

2016-01-01

Contemporary longitudinal studies collect repeated measurements of biomarkers allowing one to analyze their dynamics in relation to mortality, morbidity, or other health-related outcomes. Rich and diverse data collected in such studies provide opportunities to investigate how various socioeconomic, demographic, behavioral and other variables can interact with biological and genetic factors to produce differential rates of aging in individuals. In this paper, we review some recent publications investigating dynamics of biomarkers in relation to mortality, which use single biomarkers as well as cumulative measures combining information from multiple biomarkers. We also discuss the analytical approach, the stochastic process models, which conceptualizes several aging-related mechanisms in the structure of the model and allows evaluating “hidden” characteristics of aging-related changes indirectly from available longitudinal data on biomarkers and follow-up on mortality or onset of diseases taking into account other relevant factors (both genetic and non-genetic). We also discuss an extension of the approach, which considers ranges of “optimal values” of biomarkers rather than a single optimal value as in the original model. We discuss practical applications of the approach to single biomarkers and cumulative measures highlighting that the potential of applications to cumulative measures is still largely underused. PMID:27138087

Age and sex alone are insufficient to predict human rib structural response to dynamic A-P loading.

PubMed

Schafman, Michelle A; Kang, Yun-Seok; Moorhouse, Kevin; White, Susan E; Bolte, John H; Agnew, Amanda M

2016-10-03

Thoracic injuries from motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are common in children and the elderly and are associated with a high rate of mortality for both groups. Rib fractures, in particular, are linked to high mortality rates which increase with the number of fractures sustained. Anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and computational models have been developed to improve vehicle safety, however these tools are constructed based on limited physical datasets. To-date, no study has explored variation of rib structural properties across the entire age spectrum with data obtained using the same experimental methodology to allow for comparison. One-hundred eighty-four ribs from 93 post mortem human subjects (PMHS) (70 male, 23 female; ages 4-99) were subjected to dynamic bending tests simulating a frontal impact to the thorax. Structural mechanical properties were calculated and a multi-level statistical model quantified the sample variance as explained by age and sex. Displacement (δ X ), peak force (F peak ), linear structural stiffness (K), energy absorption to fracture (U tot ), and plastic properties including post-yield energy absorption (U Pl ), plastic displacement (δ Pl ), and the ratio of elastic to secant stiffness (K-ratio) all showed negative relationships with age, while only F peak , K, and U tot were dependent on sex. Despite these relationships being statistically significant, only 7-39% of variance is explained by age and only 3-17% of variance is explained by sex. This demonstrates that variability in bone properties is more complex than simply chronological age- and sex-dependence and should be explored in the context of biological mechanisms instead. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

[Future status of ischaemic heart disease in the state of San Luis Potosí: A predictive dynamic model].

PubMed

Gaytán-Hernández, Darío; Díaz-Oviedo, Aracely; Gallegos-García, Verónica; Terán-Figueroa, Yolanda

To develop a predictive dynamic model to generate and analyse the future status of the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease in a population of 25 years and over in Mexico, according to the variation in time of some risk factors. Retrospective ecological study performed during the period 2013-2015, in San Luis Potosí City, Mexico. Secondary databases that corresponded to the years 2000, 2005, and 2010, were used along with official indicators of the 58 municipalities of the state of San Luis Potosí. Eight indicators were analysed at municipality level, using principal components analysis, structural equation modelling, dynamic modelling, and simulation software methods. Three components were extracted, which together explained 80.43% of the total variance of the official indicators used. The second component had a weight of 16.36 units that favoured an increase of the disease analysed. This component was integrated only by the indicator AGE 60-64 and the expected stage of it increasing. The structural model confirmed that the indicators explain 42% of the variation of this disease. The possible stages for the years 2015, 2020, and 2025 are 195.7, 240.7, and 298.0, respectively for every 100,000 inhabitants aged 25 and over. An exponential increase in the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease is expected, with the age of 60-64 years being identified as the highest risk factor. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

[Sectional structure of a tree. Model analysis of the vertical biomass distribution].

PubMed

Galitskiĭ, V V

2010-01-01

A model has been proposed for the architecture of a tree in which virtual trees appear rhythmically on the treetop. Each consecutive virtual tree is a part of the previous tree. The difference between two adjacent virtual trees is a section--an element of the real tree structure. In case of a spruce, the section represents a verticil of a stem with the corresponding internode. Dynamics of a photosynthesizing part of the physiologically active biomass of each section differ from the corresponding dynamics of the virtual trees and the whole real tree. If the tree biomass dynamics has a sigma-shaped form, then the section dynamics have to be bell-shaped. It means that the lower stem should accordingly become bare, which is typically observed in nature. Model analysis reveals the limiting, in the age, form of trees to be an "umbrella". It can be observed in nature and is an outcome of physical limitation of the tree height combined with the sigma-shaped form of the tree biomass dynamics. Variation of model parameters provides for various forms of the tree biomass distribution along the height, which can be associated with certain biological species of trees.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

Flight-vehicle materials, structures, and dynamics - Assessment and future directions. Vol. 5 - Structural dynamics and aeroelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Editor); Venneri, Samuel L. (Editor)

1993-01-01

Various papers on flight vehicle materials, structures, and dynamics are presented. Individual topics addressed include: general modeling methods, component modeling techniques, time-domain computational techniques, dynamics of articulated structures, structural dynamics in rotating systems, structural dynamics in rotorcraft, damping in structures, structural acoustics, structural design for control, structural modeling for control, control strategies for structures, system identification, overall assessment of needs and benefits in structural dynamics and controlled structures. Also discussed are: experimental aeroelasticity in wind tunnels, aeroservoelasticity, nonlinear aeroelasticity, aeroelasticity problems in turbomachines, rotary-wing aeroelasticity with application to VTOL vehicles, computational aeroelasticity, structural dynamic testing and instrumentation.

Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Rock, K S; Wood, D A; Keeling, M J

2015-09-01

The biology and behaviour of biting insects is a vitally important aspect in the spread of vector-borne diseases. This paper aims to determine, through the use of mathematical models, what effect incorporating vector senescence and realistic feeding patterns has on disease. A novel model is developed to enable the effects of age- and bite-structure to be examined in detail. This original PDE framework extends previous age-structured models into a further dimension to give a new insight into the role of vector biting and its interaction with vector mortality and spread of disease. Through the PDE model, the roles of the vector death and bite rates are examined in a way which is impossible under the traditional ODE formulation. It is demonstrated that incorporating more realistic functions for vector biting and mortality in a model may give rise to different dynamics than those seen under a more simple ODE formulation. The numerical results indicate that the efficacy of control methods that increase vector mortality may not be as great as predicted under a standard host-vector model, whereas other controls including treatment of humans may be more effective than previously thought. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pro- and Antioxidant Functions of the Peroxisome-Mitochondria Connection and Its Impact on Aging and Disease

PubMed Central

Pascual-Ahuir, Amparo; Manzanares-Estreder, Sara

2017-01-01

Peroxisomes and mitochondria are the main intracellular sources for reactive oxygen species. At the same time, both organelles are critical for the maintenance of a healthy redox balance in the cell. Consequently, failure in the function of both organelles is causally linked to oxidative stress and accelerated aging. However, it has become clear that peroxisomes and mitochondria are much more intimately connected both physiologically and structurally. Both organelles share common fission components to dynamically respond to environmental cues, and the autophagic turnover of both peroxisomes and mitochondria is decisive for cellular homeostasis. Moreover, peroxisomes can physically associate with mitochondria via specific protein complexes. Therefore, the structural and functional connection of both organelles is a critical and dynamic feature in the regulation of oxidative metabolism, whose dynamic nature will be revealed in the future. In this review, we will focus on fundamental aspects of the peroxisome-mitochondria interplay derived from simple models such as yeast and move onto discussing the impact of an impaired peroxisomal and mitochondrial homeostasis on ROS production, aging, and disease in humans. PMID:28811869

The Emergence of Temporal Structures in Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, Klaus

2010-10-01

Dynamical systems in classical, relativistic and quantum physics are ruled by laws with time reversibility. Complex dynamical systems with time-irreversibility are known from thermodynamics, biological evolution, growth of organisms, brain research, aging of people, and historical processes in social sciences. Complex systems are systems that compromise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macroscopic collective behavior the manifestations of which are the spontaneous emergence of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. But, emergence is no mystery. In a general meaning, the emergence of macroscopic features results from the nonlinear interactions of the elements in a complex system. Mathematically, the emergence of irreversible structures is modelled by phase transitions in non-equilibrium dynamics of complex systems. These methods have been modified even for chemical, biological, economic and societal applications (e.g., econophysics). Emergence of irreversible structures can also be simulated by computational systems. The question arises how the emergence of irreversible structures is compatible with the reversibility of fundamental physical laws. It is argued that, according to quantum cosmology, cosmic evolution leads from symmetry to complexity of irreversible structures by symmetry breaking and phase transitions. Thus, arrows of time and aging processes are not only subjective experiences or even contradictions to natural laws, but they can be explained by quantum cosmology and the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems. Human experiences and religious concepts of arrows of time are considered in a modern scientific framework. Platonic ideas of eternity are at least understandable with respect to mathematical invariance and symmetry of physical laws. Heraclit’s world of change and dynamics can be mapped onto our daily real-life experiences of arrows of time.

Forecast horizon of multi-item dynamic lot size model with perishable inventory.

PubMed

Jing, Fuying; Lan, Zirui

2017-01-01

This paper studies a multi-item dynamic lot size problem for perishable products where stock deterioration rates and inventory costs are age-dependent. We explore structural properties in an optimal solution under two cost structures and develop a dynamic programming algorithm to solve the problem in polynomial time when the number of products is fixed. We establish forecast horizon results that can help the operation manager to decide the precise forecast horizon in a rolling decision-making process. Finally, based on a detailed test bed of instance, we obtain useful managerial insights on the impact of deterioration rate and lifetime of products on the length of forecast horizon.

Forecast horizon of multi-item dynamic lot size model with perishable inventory

PubMed Central

Jing, Fuying

2017-01-01

This paper studies a multi-item dynamic lot size problem for perishable products where stock deterioration rates and inventory costs are age-dependent. We explore structural properties in an optimal solution under two cost structures and develop a dynamic programming algorithm to solve the problem in polynomial time when the number of products is fixed. We establish forecast horizon results that can help the operation manager to decide the precise forecast horizon in a rolling decision-making process. Finally, based on a detailed test bed of instance, we obtain useful managerial insights on the impact of deterioration rate and lifetime of products on the length of forecast horizon. PMID:29125856

Exploring Psychosocial Predictors of Bullying Involvement for Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, Chad A.; Simpson, Cynthia G.; Preast, June L.

2016-01-01

Students with disabilities are disproportionately involved within the bullying dynamic. However, few studies have investigated the interaction between victimization and proactive or reactive aggression, and psychosocial predictors for bullying involvement among school-aged youth with disabilities. This study used structural equation modeling to…

Ice Age Sea Level Change on a Dynamic Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austermann, J.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Latychev, K.; Rovere, A.; Moucha, R.

2014-12-01

Changes in global mean sea level (GMSL) are a sensitive indicator of climate variability during the current ice age. Reconstructions are largely based on local sea level records, and the mapping to GMSL is computed from simulations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) on 1-D Earth models. We argue, using two case studies, that resolving important, outstanding issues in ice age paleoclimate requires a more sophisticated consideration of mantle structure and dynamics. First, we consider the coral record from Barbados, which is widely used to constrain global ice volume changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21 ka). Analyses of the record using 1-D viscoelastic Earth models have estimated a GMSL change since LGM of ~120 m, a value at odds with analyses of other far field records, which range from 130-135 m. We revisit the Barbados case using a GIA model that includes laterally varying Earth structure (Austermann et al., Nature Geo., 2013) and demonstrate that neglecting this structure, in particular the high-viscosity slab in the mantle linked to the subduction of the South American plate, has biased (low) previous estimates of GMSL change since LGM by ~10 m. Our analysis brings the Barbados estimate into accord with studies from other far-field sites. Second, we revisit estimates of GMSL during the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP, ~3 Ma), which was characterized by temperatures 2-3°C higher than present. The ice volume deficit during this period is a source of contention, with estimates ranging from 0-40 m GMSL equivalent. We argue that refining estimates of ice volume during MPWP requires a correction for mantle flow induced dynamic topography (DT; Rowley et al., Science, 2013), a signal neglected in previous studies of ice age sea level change. We present estimates of GIA- and DT-corrected elevations of MPWP shorelines from the U.S. east coast, Australia and South Africa in an attempt to reconcile these records with a single GMSL value.

Modeling Manufacturing Impacts on Aging and Reliability of Polyurethane Foams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Rekha R.; Roberts, Christine Cardinal; Mondy, Lisa Ann

Polyurethane is a complex multiphase material that evolves from a viscous liquid to a system of percolating bubbles, which are created via a CO2 generating reaction. The continuous phase polymerizes to a solid during the foaming process generating heat. Foams introduced into a mold increase their volume up to tenfold, and the dynamics of the expansion process may lead to voids and will produce gradients in density and degree of polymerization. These inhomogeneities can lead to structural stability issues upon aging. For instance, structural components in weapon systems have been shown to change shape as they age depending on theirmore » molding history, which can threaten critical tolerances. The purpose of this project is to develop a Cradle-to-Grave multiphysics model, which allows us to predict the material properties of foam from its birth through aging in the stockpile, where its dimensional stability is important.« less

Relaxation and physical aging in network glasses: a review.

PubMed

Micoulaut, Matthieu

2016-06-01

Recent progress in the description of glassy relaxation and aging are reviewed for the wide class of network-forming materials such as GeO2, Ge x Se1-x , silicates (SiO2-Na2O) or borates (B2O3-Li2O), all of which have an important usefulness in domestic, geological or optoelectronic applications. A brief introduction of the glass transition phenomenology is given, together with the salient features that are revealed both from theory and experiments. Standard experimental methods used for the characterization of the slowing down of the dynamics are reviewed. We then discuss the important role played by aspects of network topology and rigidity for the understanding of the relaxation of the glass transition, while also permitting analytical predictions of glass properties from simple and insightful models based on the network structure. We also emphasize the great utility of computer simulations which probe the dynamics at the molecular level, and permit the calculation of various structure-related functions in connection with glassy relaxation and the physics of aging which reveal the non-equilibrium nature of glasses. We discuss the notion of spatial variations of structure which leads to the concept of 'dynamic heterogeneities', and recent results in relation to this important topic for network glasses are also reviewed.

Exploring the structure and function of temporal networks with dynamic graphlets

PubMed Central

Hulovatyy, Y.; Chen, H.; Milenković, T.

2015-01-01

Motivation: With increasing availability of temporal real-world networks, how to efficiently study these data? One can model a temporal network as a single aggregate static network, or as a series of time-specific snapshots, each being an aggregate static network over the corresponding time window. Then, one can use established methods for static analysis on the resulting aggregate network(s), but losing in the process valuable temporal information either completely, or at the interface between different snapshots, respectively. Here, we develop a novel approach for studying a temporal network more explicitly, by capturing inter-snapshot relationships. Results: We base our methodology on well-established graphlets (subgraphs), which have been proven in numerous contexts in static network research. We develop new theory to allow for graphlet-based analyses of temporal networks. Our new notion of dynamic graphlets is different from existing dynamic network approaches that are based on temporal motifs (statistically significant subgraphs). The latter have limitations: their results depend on the choice of a null network model that is required to evaluate the significance of a subgraph, and choosing a good null model is non-trivial. Our dynamic graphlets overcome the limitations of the temporal motifs. Also, when we aim to characterize the structure and function of an entire temporal network or of individual nodes, our dynamic graphlets outperform the static graphlets. Clearly, accounting for temporal information helps. We apply dynamic graphlets to temporal age-specific molecular network data to deepen our limited knowledge about human aging. Availability and implementation: http://www.nd.edu/∼cone/DG. Contact: tmilenko@nd.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26072480

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Antidepressant treatment and suicide attempts and self-inflicted injury in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Gibbons, Robert D; Coca Perraillon, Marcelo; Hur, Kwan; Conti, Rena M; Valuck, Robert J; Brent, David A

2015-02-01

In the 2004, FDA placed a black box warning on antidepressants for risk of suicidal thoughts and behavior in children and adolescents. The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk of suicide attempt and self-inflicted injury in depressed children ages 5-17 treated with antidepressants in two large observational datasets taking account time-varying confounding. We analyzed two large US medical claims databases (MarketScan and LifeLink) containing 221,028 youth (ages 5-17) with new episodes of depression, with and without antidepressant treatment during the period of 2004-2009. Subjects were followed for up to 180 days. Marginal structural models were used to adjust for time-dependent confounding. For both datasets, significantly increased risk of suicide attempts and self-inflicted injury were seen during antidepressant treatment episodes in the unadjusted and simple covariate adjusted analyses. Marginal structural models revealed that the majority of the association is produced by dynamic confounding in the treatment selection process; estimated odds ratios were close to 1.0 consistent with the unadjusted and simple covariate adjusted association being a product of chance alone. Our analysis suggests antidepressant treatment selection is a product of both static and dynamic patient characteristics. Lack of adjustment for treatment selection based on dynamic patient characteristics can lead to the appearance of an association between antidepressant treatment and suicide attempts and self-inflicted injury among youths in unadjusted and simple covariate adjusted analyses. Marginal structural models can be used to adjust for static and dynamic treatment selection processes such as that likely encountered in observational studies of associations between antidepressant treatment selection, suicide and related behaviors in youth. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A biophysical model of dynamic balancing of excitation and inhibition in fast oscillatory large-scale networks

PubMed Central

Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N.; Brookes, Matthew J.; Woolrich, Mark W.

2018-01-01

Over long timescales, neuronal dynamics can be robust to quite large perturbations, such as changes in white matter connectivity and grey matter structure through processes including learning, aging, development and certain disease processes. One possible explanation is that robust dynamics are facilitated by homeostatic mechanisms that can dynamically rebalance brain networks. In this study, we simulate a cortical brain network using the Wilson-Cowan neural mass model with conduction delays and noise, and use inhibitory synaptic plasticity (ISP) to dynamically achieve a spatially local balance between excitation and inhibition. Using MEG data from 55 subjects we find that ISP enables us to simultaneously achieve high correlation with multiple measures of functional connectivity, including amplitude envelope correlation and phase locking. Further, we find that ISP successfully achieves local E/I balance, and can consistently predict the functional connectivity computed from real MEG data, for a much wider range of model parameters than is possible with a model without ISP. PMID:29474352

Assessing ecohydrological controls on catchment water storage, flux and age dynamics using tracers in a physically-based, spatially distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuppel, S.; Tetzlaff, D.; Maneta, M. P.; Soulsby, C.

2017-12-01

Stable water isotope tracing has been extensively used in a wide range of geographical environments as a means to understand the sources, flow paths and ages of water stored and exiting a landscape via evapotranspiration, surface runoff and/or stream flow. Comparisons of isotopic signatures of precipitation and water in streams, soils, groundwater and plant xylem facilitates the assessment of how plant water use may affect preferential hydrologic pathways, storage dynamics and transit times in the critical zone. While tracers are also invaluable for testing model structure and accuracy, in most cases the measured isotopic signatures have been used to guide the calibration of conceptual runoff models with simplified vegetation and energy balance representation, which lacks sufficient detail to constrain key ecohydrological controls on flow paths and water ages. Here, we use a physically-based, distributed ecohydrological model (EcH2O) which we have extended to track 2H and 18O (including fractionation processes), and water age. This work is part of the "VeWa" project which aims at understanding ecohydrological couplings across climatic gradients in the wider North, where the hydrological implications of projected environmental change are essentially unknown though expected to be high. EcH2O combines a hydrologic scheme with an explicit representation of plant growth and phenology while resolving the energy balance across the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. We focus on a montane catchment in Scotland, where unique long-term, high resolution hydrometric, ecohydrological and isotopic data allows for extensive model testing and projections. Results show the importance of incorporating soil fractionation processes to explain stream isotope dynamics, particularly seasonal enrichment in this humid, energy-limited catchment. This generic process-based approach facilitates analysis of dynamics in isotopes, storage and ages for the different hydrological compartments (canopy to groundwater) and, in particular, the explicit partitioning between soil evaporation and plant transpiration. Our study clearly advances our understanding of dynamics in water storage, flux and age in northern ecosystems, integrating ecohydrology, unsaturated zone, surface water, and groundwater hydrology.

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

PubMed

Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

2006-08-01

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

Human-arm-and-hand-dynamic model with variability analyses for a stylus-based haptic interface.

PubMed

Fu, Michael J; Cavuşoğlu, M Cenk

2012-12-01

Haptic interface research benefits from accurate human arm models for control and system design. The literature contains many human arm dynamic models but lacks detailed variability analyses. Without accurate measurements, variability is modeled in a very conservative manner, leading to less than optimal controller and system designs. This paper not only presents models for human arm dynamics but also develops inter- and intrasubject variability models for a stylus-based haptic device. Data from 15 human subjects (nine male, six female, ages 20-32) were collected using a Phantom Premium 1.5a haptic device for system identification. In this paper, grip-force-dependent models were identified for 1-3-N grip forces in the three spatial axes. Also, variability due to human subjects and grip-force variation were modeled as both structured and unstructured uncertainties. For both forms of variability, the maximum variation, 95 %, and 67 % confidence interval limits were examined. All models were in the frequency domain with force as input and position as output. The identified models enable precise controllers targeted to a subset of possible human operator dynamics.

Concept of dynamic memory in economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2018-02-01

In this paper we discuss a concept of dynamic memory and an application of fractional calculus to describe the dynamic memory. The concept of memory is considered from the standpoint of economic models in the framework of continuous time approach based on fractional calculus. We also describe some general restrictions that can be imposed on the structure and properties of dynamic memory. These restrictions include the following three principles: (a) the principle of fading memory; (b) the principle of memory homogeneity on time (the principle of non-aging memory); (c) the principle of memory reversibility (the principle of memory recovery). Examples of different memory functions are suggested by using the fractional calculus. To illustrate an application of the concept of dynamic memory in economics we consider a generalization of the Harrod-Domar model, where the power-law memory is taken into account.

Individual Differences in Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity across the Human Lifespan.

PubMed

Davison, Elizabeth N; Turner, Benjamin O; Schlesinger, Kimberly J; Miller, Michael B; Grafton, Scott T; Bassett, Danielle S; Carlson, Jean M

2016-11-01

Individual differences in brain functional networks may be related to complex personal identifiers, including health, age, and ability. Dynamic network theory has been used to identify properties of dynamic brain function from fMRI data, but the majority of analyses and findings remain at the level of the group. Here, we apply hypergraph analysis, a method from dynamic network theory, to quantify individual differences in brain functional dynamics. Using a summary metric derived from the hypergraph formalism-hypergraph cardinality-we investigate individual variations in two separate, complementary data sets. The first data set ("multi-task") consists of 77 individuals engaging in four consecutive cognitive tasks. We observe that hypergraph cardinality exhibits variation across individuals while remaining consistent within individuals between tasks; moreover, the analysis of one of the memory tasks revealed a marginally significant correspondence between hypergraph cardinality and age. This finding motivated a similar analysis of the second data set ("age-memory"), in which 95 individuals, aged 18-75, performed a memory task with a similar structure to the multi-task memory task. With the increased age range in the age-memory data set, the correlation between hypergraph cardinality and age correspondence becomes significant. We discuss these results in the context of the well-known finding linking age with network structure, and suggest that hypergraph analysis should serve as a useful tool in furthering our understanding of the dynamic network structure of the brain.

Aging and crystallization in a lattice glass model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seif, Alejandro; Loscar, Ernesto S.; Grigera, Tomás S.

2015-04-01

We have studied the three-dimensional lattice glass of Pica Ciamarra et al. [Phys. Rev. E 67, 057105 (2003), 10.1103/PhysRevE.67.057105], which has been shown to reproduce several features of the structural glass phenomenology, such as the cage effect, exponential increase of relaxation times, and aging. We show, using short-time dynamics, that the metastability limit is above the estimated Kauzmann temperature. We also find that in the region where the metastable liquid exists the aging exponent is lower than 0.5, indicating that equilibrium is reached relatively quickly. We conclude that the usefulness of this model to study the deeply supercooled regime is rather limited.

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

PubMed Central

Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

Optimal control on hybrid ode systems with application to a tick disease model.

PubMed

Ding, Wandi

2007-10-01

We are considering an optimal control problem for a type of hybrid system involving ordinary differential equations and a discrete time feature. One state variable has dynamics in only one season of the year and has a jump condition to obtain the initial condition for that corresponding season in the next year. The other state variable has continuous dynamics. Given a general objective functional, existence, necessary conditions and uniqueness for an optimal control are established. We apply our approach to a tick-transmitted disease model with age structure in which the tick dynamics changes seasonally while hosts have continuous dynamics. The goal is to maximize disease-free ticks and minimize infected ticks through an optimal control strategy of treatment with acaricide. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K . We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K . Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time tw also survives at t >tw . Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t /tw , a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance.

PubMed

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K. We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K. Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time t_{w} also survives at t>t_{w}. Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t/t_{w}, a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Simple Kinematic Pathway Approach (KPA) to Catchment-scale Travel Time and Water Age Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltani, S. S.; Cvetkovic, V.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The distribution of catchment-scale water travel times is strongly influenced by morphological dispersion and is partitioned between hillslope and larger, regional scales. We explore whether hillslope travel times are predictable using a simple semi-analytical "kinematic pathway approach" (KPA) that accounts for dispersion on two levels of morphological and macro-dispersion. The study gives new insights to shallow (hillslope) and deep (regional) groundwater travel times by comparing numerical simulations of travel time distributions, referred to as "dynamic model", with corresponding KPA computations for three different real catchment case studies in Sweden. KPA uses basic structural and hydrological data to compute transient water travel time (forward mode) and age (backward mode) distributions at the catchment outlet. Longitudinal and morphological dispersion components are reflected in KPA computations by assuming an effective Peclet number and topographically driven pathway length distributions, respectively. Numerical simulations of advective travel times are obtained by means of particle tracking using the fully-integrated flow model MIKE SHE. The comparison of computed cumulative distribution functions of travel times shows significant influence of morphological dispersion and groundwater recharge rate on the compatibility of the "kinematic pathway" and "dynamic" models. Zones of high recharge rate in "dynamic" models are associated with topographically driven groundwater flow paths to adjacent discharge zones, e.g. rivers and lakes, through relatively shallow pathway compartments. These zones exhibit more compatible behavior between "dynamic" and "kinematic pathway" models than the zones of low recharge rate. Interestingly, the travel time distributions of hillslope compartments remain almost unchanged with increasing recharge rates in the "dynamic" models. This robust "dynamic" model behavior suggests that flow path lengths and travel times in shallow hillslope compartments are controlled by topography, and therefore application and further development of the simple "kinematic pathway" approach is promising for their modeling.

A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with global forest data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Nieradzik, L. P.; Briggs, P. R.

2014-02-01

Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESM). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first generation Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second generation DVMs, that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to a range of forest types around the globe, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 yr. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents a preferable alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

HIV risk, partner violence, and relationship power among Filipino young women: testing a structural model.

PubMed

Lucea, Marguerite B; Hindin, Michelle J; Kub, Joan; Campbell, Jacquelyn C

2012-01-01

A person's ability to minimize HIV risk is embedded in a complex, multidimensional context. In this study, we tested a model of how relationship power impacts IPV victimization, which in turn impacts HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed data from 474 young adult women (aged 15-31) in Cebu Province, Philippines, using structural equation modeling, and demonstrated good fit for the models. High relationship power is directly associated with increased IPV victimization, and IPV victimization is positively associated with increased HIV risk. We highlight in this article the complex dynamics to consider in HIV risk prevention among these young women.

HIV Risk, Partner Violence, and Relationship Power Among Filipino Young Women: Testing a Structural Model

PubMed Central

LUCEA, MARGUERITE B.; HINDIN, MICHELLE J.; KUB, JOAN; CAMPBELL, JACQUELYN C.

2012-01-01

A person’s ability to minimize HIV risk is embedded in a complex, multidimensional context. In this study, we tested a model of how relationship power impacts IPV victimization, which in turn impacts HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed data from 474 young adult women (aged 15–31) in Cebu Province, Philippines, using structural equation modeling, and demonstrated good fit for the models. High relationship power is directly associated with increased IPV victimization, and IPV victimization is positively associated with increased HIV risk. We highlight in this article the complex dynamics to consider in HIV risk prevention among these young women. PMID:22420674

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth.

PubMed

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Work Ability: using structural equation modeling to assess the effects of aging, health and work on the population of Brazilian municipal employees.

PubMed

Alcântara, Marcus A; Sampaio, Rosana F; Assunção, Ada Ávila; Silva, Fabiana C Martins

2014-01-01

The Work Ability Model has a holistic structure that incorporates individual characteristics, work-related factors and life outside of work. The model has been explored in the context of Finland but still needs to be applied in other countries. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between age, health, work and work ability in a sample of Brazilian municipal employees. A sample of 5,646 workers answered a web-survey questionnaire that collected information about socio-demographics, health, work characteristics and work ability. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the simultaneous relationships between the variables that comprise the Work Ability Model. The sample was predominantly female (68.0%), between 30 and 49 years old (60.0%) and highly educated (66.0%). SEM produced good fit indexes that supported the Work Ability Model. Age was positively related to work ability and negatively related to health. Health and work characteristics positively influenced work ability. The results produced additional support for the conceptualization of work ability as a complex and dynamic phenomenon: a system composed of an individual and various elements of his/her work interact in time and space in a nonlinear way.

Kinematic imprints from the bar and spiral structures in the galatic disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueras, F.; Antoja, T.; Valenzuela, O.; Romero-Gómez, M.; Pichardo, B.; Moreno, E.

2011-12-01

At 140 years of the discovery of the moving groups, these stellar streams are emerging as powerful tools to constrain the models for the spiral arms and the Galactic bar in the Gaia era. From the kinematic-age-metallicity analysis in the solar neighbourhood it is now well established that some of these kinematic structures have a dynamical origin, different from the classical cluster disruption hypothesis. Test particle simulations allow us to definitively establish that these local structures can be created by the dynamical resonances of material spiral arms and not exclusively by the Galactic bar. First studies to evaluate the capabilities of the future Gaia data to detect and characterize moving groups at 2-6 kpc from the solar neighborhood are discussed.

Pattern, growth, and aging in aggregation kinetics of a Vicsek-like active matter model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Subir K.

2017-01-01

Via molecular dynamics simulations, we study kinetics in a Vicsek-like phase-separating active matter model. Quantitative results, for isotropic bicontinuous pattern, are presented on the structure, growth, and aging. These are obtained via the two-point equal-time density-density correlation function, the average domain length, and the two-time density autocorrelation function. Both the correlation functions exhibit basic scaling properties, implying self-similarity in the pattern dynamics, for which the average domain size exhibits a power-law growth in time. The equal-time correlation has a short distance behavior that provides reasonable agreement between the corresponding structure factor tail and the Porod law. The autocorrelation decay is a power-law in the average domain size. Apart from these basic similarities, the overall quantitative behavior of the above-mentioned observables is found to be vastly different from those of the corresponding passive limit of the model which also undergoes phase separation. The functional forms of these have been quantified. An exceptionally rapid growth in the active system occurs due to fast coherent motion of the particles, mean-squared-displacements of which exhibit multiple scaling regimes, including a long time ballistic one.

Individual Differences in Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity across the Human Lifespan

PubMed Central

Davison, Elizabeth N.; Turner, Benjamin O.; Miller, Michael B.; Carlson, Jean M.

2016-01-01

Individual differences in brain functional networks may be related to complex personal identifiers, including health, age, and ability. Dynamic network theory has been used to identify properties of dynamic brain function from fMRI data, but the majority of analyses and findings remain at the level of the group. Here, we apply hypergraph analysis, a method from dynamic network theory, to quantify individual differences in brain functional dynamics. Using a summary metric derived from the hypergraph formalism—hypergraph cardinality—we investigate individual variations in two separate, complementary data sets. The first data set (“multi-task”) consists of 77 individuals engaging in four consecutive cognitive tasks. We observe that hypergraph cardinality exhibits variation across individuals while remaining consistent within individuals between tasks; moreover, the analysis of one of the memory tasks revealed a marginally significant correspondence between hypergraph cardinality and age. This finding motivated a similar analysis of the second data set (“age-memory”), in which 95 individuals, aged 18–75, performed a memory task with a similar structure to the multi-task memory task. With the increased age range in the age-memory data set, the correlation between hypergraph cardinality and age correspondence becomes significant. We discuss these results in the context of the well-known finding linking age with network structure, and suggest that hypergraph analysis should serve as a useful tool in furthering our understanding of the dynamic network structure of the brain. PMID:27880785

Quantifying the dynamics of field cancerization in tobacco-related head and neck cancer: a multi-scale modeling approach

PubMed Central

Ryser, Marc D.; Lee, Walter T.; Readyz, Neal E.; Leder, Kevin Z.; Foo, Jasmine

2017-01-01

High rates of local recurrence in tobacco-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are commonly attributed to unresected fields of precancerous tissue. Since they are not easily detectable at the time of surgery without additional biopsies, there is a need for non-invasive methods to predict the extent and dynamics of these fields. Here we developed a spatial stochastic model of tobacco-related HNSCC at the tissue level and calibrated the model using a Bayesian framework and population-level incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Probabilistic model analyses were performed to predict the field geometry at time of diagnosis, and model predictions of age-specific recurrence risks were tested against outcome data from SEER. The calibrated models predicted a strong dependence of the local field size on age at diagnosis, with a doubling of the expected field diameter between ages at diagnosis of 50 and 90 years, respectively. Similarly, the probability of harboring multiple, clonally unrelated fields at the time of diagnosis were found to increase substantially with patient age. Based on these findings, we hypothesized a higher recurrence risk in older compared to younger patients when treated by surgery alone; we successfully tested this hypothesis using age-stratified outcome data. Further clinical studies are needed to validate the model predictions in a patient-specific setting. This work highlights the importance of spatial structure in models of epithelial carcinogenesis, and suggests that patient age at diagnosis may be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. Major Findings Patient age at diagnosis was found to be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. This finding challenges the current one-size-fits-all approach to surgical excision margins. PMID:27913438

Age-of-Air, Tape Recorder, and Vertical Transport Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.-J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A numerical-analytic investigation of the impacts of vertical transport schemes on the model simulated age-of-air and the so-called 'tape recorder' will be presented using an idealized 1-D column transport model as well as a more realistic 3-D dynamical model. By comparing to the 'exact' solutions of 'age-of-air' and the 'tape recorder' obtainable in the 1-D setting, useful insight is gained on the impacts of numerical diffusion and dispersion of numerical schemes used in global models. Advantages and disadvantages of Eulerian, semi-Lagrangian, and Lagrangian transport schemes will be discussed. Vertical resolution requirement for numerical schemes as well as observing systems for capturing the fine details of the 'tape recorder' or any upward propagating wave-like structures can potentially be derived from the 1-D analytic model.

The Architecture, Dynamics, and Development of Mental Processing: Greek, Chinese, or Universal?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demetriou, A.; Kui, Z.X.; Spanoudis, G.; Christou, C.; Kyriakides, L.; Platsidou, M.

2005-01-01

This study compared Greeks with Chinese, from 8 to 14 years of age, on measures of processing efficiency, working memory, and reasoning. All processes were addressed through three domains of relations: verbal/propositional, quantitative, and visuo/spatial. Structural equations modelling and rating scale analysis showed that the architecture and…

Effects of upper mantle heterogeneities on the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osei Tutu, Anthony; Steinberger, Bernhard; Sobolev, Stephan V.; Rogozhina, Irina; Popov, Anton A.

2018-05-01

The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. In this study, we analyze the influence of the thermal and density structure of the upper mantle on the lithospheric stress field and topography. We use a 3-D lithosphere-asthenosphere numerical model with power-law rheology, coupled to a spectral mantle flow code at 300 km depth. Our results are validated against the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observation-based residual topography. We derive the upper mantle thermal structure from either a heat flow model combined with a seafloor age model (TM1) or a global S-wave velocity model (TM2). We show that lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km have a limited influence on the modeled horizontal stress field as opposed to the resulting dynamic topography that appears more sensitive to such heterogeneities. The modeled stress field directions, using only the mantle heterogeneities below 300 km, are not perturbed much when the effects of lithosphere and crust above 300 km are added. In contrast, modeled stress magnitudes and dynamic topography are to a greater extent controlled by the upper mantle density structure. After correction for the chemical depletion of continents, the TM2 model leads to a much better fit with the observed residual topography giving a good correlation of 0.51 in continents, but this correction leads to no significant improvement of the fit between the WSM2016 and the resulting lithosphere stresses. In continental regions with abundant heat flow data, TM1 results in relatively small angular misfits. For example, in western Europe the misfit between the modeled and observation-based stress is 18.3°. Our findings emphasize that the relative contributions coming from shallow and deep mantle dynamic forces are quite different for the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography.

Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiwen; Liu, Jiming; Wang, Xiaowei; Zhu, Xianjun; Wang, Daxing; Han, Guoqiang

2016-01-01

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics.

Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model

PubMed Central

Yu, Zhiwen; Liu, Jiming; Wang, Xiaowei; Zhu, Xianjun; Wang, Daxing; Han, Guoqiang

2016-01-01

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible—exposed—infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics. PMID:27233015

Preliminary shuttle structural dynamics modeling design study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The design and development of a structural dynamics model of the space shuttle are discussed. The model provides for early study of structural dynamics problems, permits evaluation of the accuracy of the structural and hydroelastic analysis methods used on test vehicles, and provides for efficiently evaluating potential cost savings in structural dynamic testing techniques. The discussion is developed around the modes in which major input forces and responses occur and the significant structural details in these modes.

Dynamical compensation and structural identifiability of biological models: Analysis, implications, and reconciliation.

PubMed

Villaverde, Alejandro F; Banga, Julio R

2017-11-01

The concept of dynamical compensation has been recently introduced to describe the ability of a biological system to keep its output dynamics unchanged in the face of varying parameters. However, the original definition of dynamical compensation amounts to lack of structural identifiability. This is relevant if model parameters need to be estimated, as is often the case in biological modelling. Care should we taken when using an unidentifiable model to extract biological insight: the estimated values of structurally unidentifiable parameters are meaningless, and model predictions about unmeasured state variables can be wrong. Taking this into account, we explore alternative definitions of dynamical compensation that do not necessarily imply structural unidentifiability. Accordingly, we show different ways in which a model can be made identifiable while exhibiting dynamical compensation. Our analyses enable the use of the new concept of dynamical compensation in the context of parameter identification, and reconcile it with the desirable property of structural identifiability.

Linking models and data on vegetation structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Dubayah, R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Shugart, H. H.

2010-06-01

For more than a century, scientists have recognized the importance of vegetation structure in understanding forest dynamics. Now future satellite missions such as Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) hold the potential to provide unprecedented global data on vegetation structure needed to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here, we briefly review the uses of data on vegetation structure in ecosystem models, develop and analyze theoretical models to quantify model-data requirements, and describe recent progress using a mechanistic modeling approach utilizing a formal scaling method and data on vegetation structure to improve model predictions. Generally, both limited sampling and coarse resolution averaging lead to model initialization error, which in turn is propagated in subsequent model prediction uncertainty and error. In cases with representative sampling, sufficient resolution, and linear dynamics, errors in initialization tend to compensate at larger spatial scales. However, with inadequate sampling, overly coarse resolution data or models, and nonlinear dynamics, errors in initialization lead to prediction error. A robust model-data framework will require both models and data on vegetation structure sufficient to resolve important environmental gradients and tree-level heterogeneity in forest structure globally.

Evolution over time of the Milky Way's disc shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amôres, E. B.; Robin, A. C.; Reylé, C.

2017-06-01

Context. Galactic structure studies can be used as a path to constrain the scenario of formation and evolution of our Galaxy. The dependence with the age of stellar population parameters would be linked with the history of star formation and dynamical evolution. Aims: We aim to investigate the structures of the outer Galaxy, such as the scale length, disc truncation, warp and flare of the thin disc and study their dependence with age by using 2MASS data and a population synthesis model (the so-called Besançon Galaxy Model). Methods: We have used a genetic algorithm to adjust the parameters on the observed colour-magnitude diagrams at longitudes 80° ≤ ℓ ≤ 280° for | b | ≤ 5.5°. We explored parameter degeneracies and uncertainties. Results: We identify a clear dependence of the thin disc scale length, warp and flare shapes with age. The scale length is found to vary between 3.8 kpc for the youngest to about 2 kpc for the oldest. The warp shows a complex structure, clearly asymmetrical with a node angle changing with age from approximately 165° for old stars to 195° for young stars. The outer disc is also flaring with a scale height that varies by a factor of two between the solar neighbourhood and a Galactocentric distance of 12 kpc. Conclusions: We conclude that the thin disc scale length is in good agreement with the inside-out formation scenario and that the outer disc is not in dynamical equilibrium. The warp deformation with time may provide some clues to its origin.

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

An analytical model of stand dynamics as a function of tree growth, mortality and recruitment: the shade tolerance-stand structure hypothesis revisited.

PubMed

Zavala, Miguel A; Angulo, Oscar; Bravo de la Parra, Rafael; López-Marcos, Juan C

2007-02-07

Light competition and interspecific differences in shade tolerance are considered key determinants of forest stand structure and dynamics. Specifically two main stand diameter distribution types as a function of shade tolerance have been proposed based on empirical observations. All-aged stands of shade tolerant species tend to have steeply descending, monotonic diameter distributions (inverse J-shaped curves). Shade intolerant species in contrast typically exhibit normal (unimodal) tree diameter distributions due to high mortality rates of smaller suppressed trees. In this study we explore the generality of this hypothesis which implies a causal relationship between light competition or shade tolerance and stand structure. For this purpose we formulate a partial differential equation system of stand dynamics as a function of individual tree growth, recruitment and mortality which allows us to explore possible individual-based mechanisms--e.g. light competition-underlying observed patterns of stand structure--e.g. unimodal or inverse J-shaped equilibrium diameter curves. We find that contrary to expectations interspecific differences in growth patterns can result alone in any of the two diameter distributions types observed in the field. In particular, slow growing species can present unimodal equilibrium curves even in the absence of light competition. Moreover, light competition and shade intolerance evaluated both at the tree growth and mortality stages did not have a significant impact on stand structure that tended to converge systematically towards an inverse J-shaped curves for most tree growth scenarios. Realistic transient stand dynamics for even aged stands of shade intolerant species (unimodal curves) were only obtained when recruitment was completely suppressed, providing further evidence on the critical role played by juvenile stages of tree development (e.g. the sampling stage) on final forest structure and composition. The results also point out the relevance of partial differential equations systems as a tool for exploring the individual-level mechanisms underpinning forest structure, particularly in relation to more complex forest simulation models that are more difficult to analyze and to interpret from a biological point of view.

Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Ryser, Marc D; Lee, Walter T; Ready, Neal E; Leder, Kevin Z; Foo, Jasmine

2016-12-15

High rates of local recurrence in tobacco-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are commonly attributed to unresected fields of precancerous tissue. Because they are not easily detectable at the time of surgery without additional biopsies, there is a need for noninvasive methods to predict the extent and dynamics of these fields. Here, we developed a spatial stochastic model of tobacco-related HNSCC at the tissue level and calibrated the model using a Bayesian framework and population-level incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Probabilistic model analyses were performed to predict the field geometry at time of diagnosis, and model predictions of age-specific recurrence risks were tested against outcome data from SEER. The calibrated models predicted a strong dependence of the local field size on age at diagnosis, with a doubling of the expected field diameter between ages at diagnosis of 50 and 90 years, respectively. Similarly, the probability of harboring multiple, clonally unrelated fields at the time of diagnosis was found to increase substantially with patient age. On the basis of these findings, we hypothesized a higher recurrence risk in older than in younger patients when treated by surgery alone; we successfully tested this hypothesis using age-stratified outcome data. Further clinical studies are needed to validate the model predictions in a patient-specific setting. This work highlights the importance of spatial structure in models of epithelial carcinogenesis and suggests that patient age at diagnosis may be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. Cancer Res; 76(24); 7078-88. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helfferich, Julian; Lyubimov, Ivan; Reid, Daniel

Glasses produced via physical vapor deposition can display greater kinetic stability and lower enthalpy than glasses prepared by liquid cooling. While the reduced enthalpy has often been used as a measure of the stability, it is not obvious whether dynamic measures of stability provide the same view. Here, we study dynamics in vapor-deposited and liquid-cooled glass films using molecular simulations of a bead-spring polymer model as well as a Lennard-Jones binary mixture in two and three dimensions. We confirm that the dynamics in vapor-deposited glasses is indeed slower than in ordinary glasses. We further show that the inherent structure energymore » is a good reporter of local dynamics, and that aged systems and glasses prepared by cooling at progressively slower rates exhibit the same behavior as vapor-deposited materials when they both have the same inherent structure energy. These findings suggest that the stability inferred from measurements of the energy is also manifested in dynamic observables, and they strengthen the view that vapor deposition processes provide an effective strategy for creation of stable glasses.« less

Modeling Cancer Cell Growth Dynamics In vitro in Response to Antimitotic Drug Treatment

PubMed Central

Lorz, Alexander; Botesteanu, Dana-Adriana; Levy, Doron

2017-01-01

Investigating the role of intrinsic cell heterogeneity emerging from variations in cell-cycle parameters and apoptosis is a crucial step toward better informing drug administration. Antimitotic agents, widely used in chemotherapy, target exclusively proliferative cells and commonly induce a prolonged mitotic arrest followed by cell death via apoptosis. In this paper, we developed a physiologically motivated mathematical framework for describing cancer cell growth dynamics that incorporates the intrinsic heterogeneity in the time individual cells spend in the cell-cycle and apoptosis process. More precisely, our model comprises two age-structured partial differential equations for the proliferative and apoptotic cell compartments and one ordinary differential equation for the quiescent compartment. To reflect the intrinsic cell heterogeneity that governs the growth dynamics, proliferative and apoptotic cells are structured in “age,” i.e., the amount of time remaining to be spent in each respective compartment. In our model, we considered an antimitotic drug whose effect on the cellular dynamics is to induce mitotic arrest, extending the average cell-cycle length. The prolonged mitotic arrest induced by the drug can trigger apoptosis if the time a cell will spend in the cell cycle is greater than the mitotic arrest threshold. We studied the drug’s effect on the long-term cancer cell growth dynamics using different durations of prolonged mitotic arrest induced by the drug. Our numerical simulations suggest that at confluence and in the absence of the drug, quiescence is the long-term asymptotic behavior emerging from the cancer cell growth dynamics. This pattern is maintained in the presence of small increases in the average cell-cycle length. However, intermediate increases in cell-cycle length markedly decrease the total number of cells and can drive the cancer population to extinction. Intriguingly, a large “switch-on/switch-off” increase in the average cell-cycle length maintains an active cell population in the long term, with oscillating numbers of proliferative cells and a relatively constant quiescent cell number. PMID:28913178

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Modeling landscape net ecosystem productivity (LandNEP) under alternative management regimes

Treesearch

Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Jiquan Chen; Harbin Li; Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas R. Crow

2002-01-01

Forests have been considered as a major carbon sink within the global carbon budget. However, a fragmented forest landscape varies significantly in its composition and age structure, and the amount of carbon sequestered at this level remains generally unknown to the scientific community. More precisely, the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of net ecosystem...

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris ) Stand Dynamics: A Regional Longleaf Growth Study

Treesearch

Ralph S. Meldahl; John S. Kush; William D. Boyer

1998-01-01

Objective: Describe and model temporal changes in longleaf pine stand structure. From 1964-1967, the U.S. Forest Service established a regional longleaf pine growth study (RLGS) in the Gulf States. The original objective was to obtain a database for the development of growth and mortality predictions of naturally regenerated, even- aged longleaf pine stands. The...

Correlations among stand ages and forest strata in mixed-oak forests of southeastern Ohio

Treesearch

P. Charles Goebel; David M. Hix

1997-01-01

Many models of landscape ecosystem development, as well as of forest stand dynamics, are based upon spatial and temporal changes in the species composition and structure of various forest strata. However, few document the interrelationships among forest strata, or the response of different strata to alterations of natural disturbance regimes. To examine how...

Relationship between local structure and relaxation in out-of-equilibrium glassy systems

DOE PAGES

Schoenholz, Samuel S.; Cubuk, Ekin D.; Kaxiras, Efthimios; ...

2016-12-27

The dynamical glass transition is typically taken to be the temperature at which a glassy liquid is no longer able to equilibrate on experimental timescales. Consequently, the physical properties of these systems just above or below the dynamical glass transition, such as viscosity, can change by many orders of magnitude over long periods of time following external perturbation. During this progress toward equilibrium, glassy systems exhibit a history dependence that has complicated their study. In previous work, we bridged the gap between structure and dynamics in glassy liquids above their dynamical glass transition temperatures by introducing a scalar field calledmore » “softness,” a quantity obtained using machine-learning methods. Softness is designed to capture the hidden patterns in relative particle positions that correlate strongly with dynamical rearrangements of particle positions. Here we show that the out-of-equilibrium behavior of a model glass-forming system can be understood in terms of softness. We first demonstrate that the evolution of behavior following a temperature quench is a primarily structural phenomenon: The structure changes considerably, but the relationship between structure and dynamics remains invariant. We then show that the relaxation time can be robustly computed from structure as quantified by softness, with the same relation holding both in equilibrium and as the system ages. Together, these results show that the history dependence of the relaxation time in glasses requires knowledge only of the softness in addition to the usual state variables.« less

Relationship between local structure and relaxation in out-of-equilibrium glassy systems.

PubMed

Schoenholz, Samuel S; Cubuk, Ekin D; Kaxiras, Efthimios; Liu, Andrea J

2017-01-10

The dynamical glass transition is typically taken to be the temperature at which a glassy liquid is no longer able to equilibrate on experimental timescales. Consequently, the physical properties of these systems just above or below the dynamical glass transition, such as viscosity, can change by many orders of magnitude over long periods of time following external perturbation. During this progress toward equilibrium, glassy systems exhibit a history dependence that has complicated their study. In previous work, we bridged the gap between structure and dynamics in glassy liquids above their dynamical glass transition temperatures by introducing a scalar field called "softness," a quantity obtained using machine-learning methods. Softness is designed to capture the hidden patterns in relative particle positions that correlate strongly with dynamical rearrangements of particle positions. Here we show that the out-of-equilibrium behavior of a model glass-forming system can be understood in terms of softness. To do this we first demonstrate that the evolution of behavior following a temperature quench is a primarily structural phenomenon: The structure changes considerably, but the relationship between structure and dynamics remains invariant. We then show that the relaxation time can be robustly computed from structure as quantified by softness, with the same relation holding both in equilibrium and as the system ages. Together, these results show that the history dependence of the relaxation time in glasses requires knowledge only of the softness in addition to the usual state variables.

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

2014-01-01

Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

PubMed

Lunelli, Antonella; Pugliese, Andrea; Rizzo, Caterina

2009-07-01

Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and motivate the specific modelling choices made when building the model and investigate how the model details influence the predicted dynamics. Our analysis may help in deciding which elements of complexity are worth including in the design of a deterministic model for pandemic influenza, in a balance between, on the one hand, keeping the model computationally efficient and the number of parameters low and, on the other hand, maintaining the necessary realistic features.

Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2016-06-01

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Performance Analysis of Garbage Collection and Dynamic Reordering in a Lisp System. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llames, Rene Lim

1991-01-01

Generation based garbage collection and dynamic reordering of objects are two techniques for improving the efficiency of memory management in Lisp and similar dynamic language systems. An analysis of the effect of generation configuration is presented, focusing on the effect of a number of generations and generation capabilities. Analytic timing and survival models are used to represent garbage collection runtime and to derive structural results on its behavior. The survival model provides bounds on the age of objects surviving a garbage collection at a particular level. Empirical results show that execution time is most sensitive to the capacity of the youngest generation. A technique called scanning for transport statistics, for evaluating the effectiveness of reordering independent of main memory size, is presented.

Structural connectivity in schizophrenia and its impact on the dynamics of spontaneous functional networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cabral, Joana; Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7JX; Fernandes, Henrique M.

The neuropathology of schizophrenia remains unclear. Some insight has come from modern neuroimaging techniques, which offer an unparalleled opportunity to explore in vivo the structure and function of the brain. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, it has been found that the large-scale resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) in schizophrenia — measured as the temporal correlations of the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal — exhibit altered network topology, with lower small-world index. The origin of these rsFC alterations and link with the underlying structural connectivity remain unclear. In this work, we used a computational model of spontaneous large-scale brain activity to explore the rolemore » of the structural connectivity in the large-scale dynamics of the brain in health and schizophrenia. The structural connectomes from 15 adolescent patients with early-onset schizophrenia and 15 age- and gender-matched controls were built from diffusion tensor imaging data to detect the white matter tracts between 90 brain areas. Brain areas, simulated using a reduced dynamic mean-field model, receive excitatory input from other areas in proportion to the number of fibre tracts between them. The simulated mean field activity was transformed into BOLD signal, and the properties of the simulated functional networks were analyzed. Our results suggest that the functional alterations observed in schizophrenia are not directly linked to alterations in the structural topology. Instead, subtly randomized and less small-world functional networks appear when the brain operates with lower global coupling, which shifts the dynamics from the optimal healthy regime.« less

Structural connectivity in schizophrenia and its impact on the dynamics of spontaneous functional networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral, Joana; Fernandes, Henrique M.; Van Hartevelt, Tim J.; James, Anthony C.; Kringelbach, Morten L.; Deco, Gustavo

2013-12-01

The neuropathology of schizophrenia remains unclear. Some insight has come from modern neuroimaging techniques, which offer an unparalleled opportunity to explore in vivo the structure and function of the brain. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, it has been found that the large-scale resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) in schizophrenia — measured as the temporal correlations of the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal — exhibit altered network topology, with lower small-world index. The origin of these rsFC alterations and link with the underlying structural connectivity remain unclear. In this work, we used a computational model of spontaneous large-scale brain activity to explore the role of the structural connectivity in the large-scale dynamics of the brain in health and schizophrenia. The structural connectomes from 15 adolescent patients with early-onset schizophrenia and 15 age- and gender-matched controls were built from diffusion tensor imaging data to detect the white matter tracts between 90 brain areas. Brain areas, simulated using a reduced dynamic mean-field model, receive excitatory input from other areas in proportion to the number of fibre tracts between them. The simulated mean field activity was transformed into BOLD signal, and the properties of the simulated functional networks were analyzed. Our results suggest that the functional alterations observed in schizophrenia are not directly linked to alterations in the structural topology. Instead, subtly randomized and less small-world functional networks appear when the brain operates with lower global coupling, which shifts the dynamics from the optimal healthy regime.

Structure and dynamics of complex liquid water: Molecular dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

S, Indrajith V.; Natesan, Baskaran

2015-06-01

We have carried out detailed structure and dynamical studies of complex liquid water using molecular dynamics simulations. Three different model potentials, namely, TIP3P, TIP4P and SPC-E have been used in the simulations, in order to arrive at the best possible potential function that could reproduce the structure of experimental bulk water. All the simulations were performed in the NVE micro canonical ensemble using LAMMPS. The radial distribution functions, gOO, gOH and gHH and the self diffusion coefficient, Ds, were calculated for all three models. We conclude from our results that the structure and dynamical parameters obtained for SPC-E model matched well with the experimental values, suggesting that among the models studied here, the SPC-E model gives the best structure and dynamics of bulk water.

Dynamical compensation and structural identifiability of biological models: Analysis, implications, and reconciliation

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The concept of dynamical compensation has been recently introduced to describe the ability of a biological system to keep its output dynamics unchanged in the face of varying parameters. However, the original definition of dynamical compensation amounts to lack of structural identifiability. This is relevant if model parameters need to be estimated, as is often the case in biological modelling. Care should we taken when using an unidentifiable model to extract biological insight: the estimated values of structurally unidentifiable parameters are meaningless, and model predictions about unmeasured state variables can be wrong. Taking this into account, we explore alternative definitions of dynamical compensation that do not necessarily imply structural unidentifiability. Accordingly, we show different ways in which a model can be made identifiable while exhibiting dynamical compensation. Our analyses enable the use of the new concept of dynamical compensation in the context of parameter identification, and reconcile it with the desirable property of structural identifiability. PMID:29186132

Stress state reassessment of Romanian offshore structures taking into account corrosion influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joavină, R.; Zăgan, S.; Zăgan, R.; Popa, M.

2017-08-01

Progressive degradation analysis for extraction or exploration offshore structure, with appraisal of failure potential and the causes that can be correlated with the service age, depends on the various sources of uncertainty that require particular attention in design, construction and exploitation phases. Romanian self erecting platforms are spatial lattice structures consist of tubular steel joints, forming a continuous system with an infinite number of dynamic degrees of freedom. Reassessment of a structure at fixed intervals of time, recorrelation of initial design elements with the actual situation encountered in location and with structural behaviour represents a major asset in lowering vulnerabilities of offshore structure. This paper proposes a comparative reassessment of the stress state for an offshore structure Gloria type, when leaving the shipyard and at the end of that interval corresponding to capital revision, taking into account sectional changes due to marine environment corrosion. The calculation was done using Newmark integration method on a 3D model, asses of the dynamic loads was made through probabilistic spectral method.

Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Ferrari, Matthew J; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-12-14

Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonality, stochasticity, variable recruitment of susceptible individuals via birth, immunization, and immune boosting. We propose an alternative hypothesis to describe the variability in periodicity - the intricate dynamical variability of whooping cough may arise from interactions between its dominant etiological agents of Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis. We develop a two-species age-structured model, where two pathogens are allowed to interact by age-dependent convalescence of individuals with severe illness from infections. With moderate strength of interactions, the model exhibits multi-annual coexisting attractors that depend on the R 0 of the two pathogens. We also examine how perturbation from case importation and noise in transmission may push the system from one dynamical regime to another. The coexistence of multi-annual cycles and the behavior of switching between attractors suggest that variable dynamics of whopping cough could be an emergent property of its multi-agent etiology. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic model updating based on strain mode shape and natural frequency using hybrid pattern search technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Ning; Yang, Zhichun; Wang, Le; Ouyang, Yan; Zhang, Xinping

2018-05-01

Aiming at providing a precise dynamic structural finite element (FE) model for dynamic strength evaluation in addition to dynamic analysis. A dynamic FE model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the FE model of a structure using strain mode shapes and natural frequencies. The strain mode shape, which is sensitive to local changes in structure, is used instead of the displacement mode for enhancing model updating. The coordinate strain modal assurance criterion is developed to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical strain mode shapes. Moreover, the natural frequencies which provide the global information of the structure are used to guarantee the accuracy of modal properties of the global model. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate strain modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function in the proposed dynamic FE model updating procedure. The hybrid genetic/pattern-search optimization algorithm is adopted to perform the dynamic FE model updating procedure. Numerical simulation and model updating experiment for a clamped-clamped beam are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present method. The results show that the proposed method can be used to update the uncertain parameters with good robustness. And the updated dynamic FE model of the beam structure, which can correctly predict both the natural frequencies and the local dynamic strains, is reliable for the following dynamic analysis and dynamic strength evaluation.

Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Yingming; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Madenjian, Charles P.

2013-01-01

We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.

Aging and Work Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schrank, Harris T.; Waring, Joan M.

Business firms are an integral part of the age stratification structure of society. Although the age structures of people and roles within the organization are dynamic, these structures yield a fairly stable strata in which norms exist to suggest the various roles expected of certain persons. Those in roles with greater financial rewards, power,…

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2010-01-07

In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.

The Met Office HadGEM3-ES chemistry-climate model: evaluation of stratospheric dynamics and its impact on ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, Steven C.; Butchart, Neal; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Rumbold, Steven T.

2017-03-01

Free-running and nudged versions of a Met Office chemistry-climate model are evaluated and used to investigate the impact of dynamics versus transport and chemistry within the model on the simulated evolution of stratospheric ozone. Metrics of the dynamical processes relevant for simulating stratospheric ozone are calculated, and the free-running model is found to outperform the previous model version in 10 of the 14 metrics. In particular, large biases in stratospheric transport and tropical tropopause temperature, which existed in the previous model version, are substantially reduced, making the current model more suitable for the simulation of stratospheric ozone. The spatial structure of the ozone hole, the area of polar stratospheric clouds, and the increased ozone concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere following sudden stratospheric warmings, were all found to be sensitive to the accuracy of the dynamics and were better simulated in the nudged model than in the free-running model. Whilst nudging can, in general, provide a useful tool for removing the influence of dynamical biases from the evolution of chemical fields, this study shows that issues can remain in the climatology of nudged models. Significant biases in stratospheric vertical velocities, age of air, water vapour, and total column ozone still exist in the Met Office nudged model. Further, these can lead to biases in the downward flux of ozone into the troposphere.

Modeling Intraindividual Dynamics Using Stochastic Differential Equations: Age Differences in Affect Regulation.

PubMed

Wood, Julie; Oravecz, Zita; Vogel, Nina; Benson, Lizbeth; Chow, Sy-Miin; Cole, Pamela; Conroy, David E; Pincus, Aaron L; Ram, Nilam

2017-12-15

Life-span theories of aging suggest improvements and decrements in individuals' ability to regulate affect. Dynamic process models, with intensive longitudinal data, provide new opportunities to articulate specific theories about individual differences in intraindividual dynamics. This paper illustrates a method for operationalizing affect dynamics using a multilevel stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, and examines how those dynamics differ with age and trait-level tendencies to deploy emotion regulation strategies (reappraisal and suppression). Univariate multilevel SDE models, estimated in a Bayesian framework, were fit to 21 days of ecological momentary assessments of affect valence and arousal (average 6.93/day, SD = 1.89) obtained from 150 adults (age 18-89 years)-specifically capturing temporal dynamics of individuals' core affect in terms of attractor point, reactivity to biopsychosocial (BPS) inputs, and attractor strength. Older age was associated with higher arousal attractor point and less BPS-related reactivity. Greater use of reappraisal was associated with lower valence attractor point. Intraindividual variability in regulation strategy use was associated with greater BPS-related reactivity and attractor strength, but in different ways for valence and arousal. The results highlight the utility of SDE models for studying affect dynamics and informing theoretical predictions about how intraindividual dynamics change over the life course. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

A Conceptual Model of Riparian Forest Response to Channel Abandonment on Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.; Piegay, H.; Dufour, S.; Fremier, A. K.

2008-12-01

On alluvial rivers, hydrogeomorphic regimes exert a primary control on the regeneration of pioneer riparian forest stands and thus their composition and age structure. Seasonal flow patterns provide the necessary conditions for recruitment, and channel migration drives patterns of forest stand dynamics. To date, studies of pioneer riparian forest structure have focused primarily on point bar habitats, where woody vegetation typically recruits with decadal frequency in even-aged bands parallel to the river margin. However, there are indications that other recruitment pathways exist and can be important from a population and conservation perspective. On floodplains where channel migration occurs as infrequent cutoff or avulsion events, the geometry and position of the old channel relative to the new one determines rates and patterns of sedimentation and flood frequency. These conditions provide a brief opportunity for forest recruitment, and geomorphic evolution of the former channel habitat in turn influences forest dynamics. The population implications of this alternative forest regeneration pathway depend on the temporal dynamics of channel abandonment versus the rate of lateral channel migration. Preliminary analysis indicates that the geographic scope of this ecogeomorphological process is sizable. Along the Sacramento River (CA) and Ain River (France), for example, cottonwood-dominated stands associated with abandoned channels tend to be less frequent in number (38% of all stands) but larger in area (accounting for 53% of all forest area) relative to forest stands associated with laterally migrating point bars. Dendrochronological analysis confirms that tree ages in floodplain stands corresponds to the first decade after channel abandonment. These data indicate that changes to the rate and scale of channel abandonment due to human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics.

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Re-equilibration after quenches in athermal martensites: Conversion delays for vapor-to-liquid domain-wall phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shankaraiah, N.; Murthy, K. P. N.; Lookman, T.; Shenoy, S. R.

2015-06-01

Entropy barriers and aging states appear in martensitic structural-transition models, slowly re-equilibrating after temperature quenches, under Monte Carlo dynamics. Concepts from protein folding and aging harmonic oscillators turn out to be useful in understanding these nonequilibrium evolutions. We show how the athermal, nonactivated delay time for seeded parent-phase austenite to convert to product-phase martensite arises from an identified entropy barrier in Fourier space. In an aging state of low Monte Carlo acceptances, the strain structure factor makes constant-energy searches for rare pathways to enter a Brillouin zone "golf hole" enclosing negative-energy states, and to suddenly release entropically trapped stresses. In this context, a stress-dependent effective temperature can be defined, that re-equilibrates to the quenched bath temperature.

A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with inventory data from temperate and boreal forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Nieradzik, L. P.; Briggs, P. R.

2014-08-01

Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESMs). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first-generation dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second-generation DVMs that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange) or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub-grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to wide-ranging temporal and boreal forests, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model, and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 year. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents an ecologically plausible and efficient alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

PDEMOD: Software for control/structures optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.; Zimmerman, David

1991-01-01

Because of the possibility of adverse interaction between the control system and the structural dynamics of large, flexible spacecraft, great care must be taken to ensure stability and system performance. Because of the high cost of insertion of mass into low earth orbit, it is prudent to optimize the roles of structure and control systems simultaneously. Because of the difficulty and the computational burden in modeling and analyzing the control structure system dynamics, the total problem is often split and treated iteratively. It would aid design if the control structure system dynamics could be represented in a single system of equations. With the use of the software PDEMOD (Partial Differential Equation Model), it is now possible to optimize structure and control systems simultaneously. The distributed parameter modeling approach enables embedding the control system dynamics into the same equations for the structural dynamics model. By doing this, the current difficulties involved in model order reduction are avoided. The NASA Mini-MAST truss is used an an example for studying integrated control structure design.

Controlling flexible structures with second order actuator dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Inman, Daniel J.; Umland, Jeffrey W.; Bellos, John

1989-01-01

The control of flexible structures for those systems with actuators that are modeled by second order dynamics is examined. Two modeling approaches are investigated. First a stability and performance analysis is performed using a low order finite dimensional model of the structure. Secondly, a continuum model of the flexible structure to be controlled, coupled with lumped parameter second order dynamic models of the actuators performing the control is used. This model is appropriate in the modeling of the control of a flexible panel by proof-mass actuators as well as other beam, plate and shell like structural numbers. The model is verified with experimental measurements.

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Development of an Aeroelastic Modeling Capability for Transient Nozzle Side Load Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Zhao, Xiang; Zhang, Sijun; Chen, Yen-Sen

2013-01-01

Lateral nozzle forces are known to cause severe structural damage to any new rocket engine in development during test. While three-dimensional, transient, turbulent, chemically reacting computational fluid dynamics methodology has been demonstrated to capture major side load physics with rigid nozzles, hot-fire tests often show nozzle structure deformation during major side load events, leading to structural damages if structural strengthening measures were not taken. The modeling picture is incomplete without the capability to address the two-way responses between the structure and fluid. The objective of this study is to develop a coupled aeroelastic modeling capability by implementing the necessary structural dynamics component into an anchored computational fluid dynamics methodology. The computational fluid dynamics component is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, while the computational structural dynamics component is developed in the framework of modal analysis. Transient aeroelastic nozzle startup analyses of the Block I Space Shuttle Main Engine at sea level were performed. The computed results from the aeroelastic nozzle modeling are presented.

Nonlinear Dynamics of Complex Coevolutionary Systems in Historical Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, Rui A. P.

2016-04-01

A new theoretical paradigm for statistical-dynamical modeling of complex coevolutionary systems is introduced, with the aim to provide historical geoscientists with a practical tool to analyse historical data and its underlying phenomenology. Historical data is assumed to represent the history of dynamical processes of physical and socio-economic nature. If processes and their governing laws are well understood, they are often treated with traditional dynamical equations: deterministic approach. If the governing laws are unknown or impracticable, the process is often treated as if being random (even if it is not): statistical approach. Although single eventful details - such as the exact spatiotemporal structure of a particular hydro-meteorological incident - may often be elusive to a detailed analysis, the overall dynamics exhibit group properties summarized by a simple set of categories or dynamical regimes at multiple scales - from local short-lived convection patterns to large-scale hydro-climatic regimes. The overwhelming microscale complexity is thus conveniently wrapped into a manageable group entity, such as a statistical distribution. In a stationary setting whereby the distribution is assumed to be invariant, alternating regimes are approachable as dynamical intermittence. For instance, in the context of bimodal climatic oscillations such as NAO and ENSO, each mode corresponds to a dynamical regime or phase. However, given external forcings or longer-term internal variability and multiscale coevolution, the structural properties of the system may change. These changes in the dynamical structure bring about a new distribution and associated regimes. The modes of yesteryear may no longer exist as such in the new structural order of the system. In this context, aside from regime intermittence, the system exhibits structural regime change. New oscillations may emerge whilst others fade into the annals of history, e.g. particular climate fluctuations during the Little Ice Age. Traditional theories of stochastic processes and dynamical systems are grounded on the existence of so-called dynamical invariants; properties that remain unchanged as the dynamics unfold, assuming structural invariance and ergodicity of the underlying system. However, such theories are no longer optimal when trying to understand and model long-term historical records of coevolutionary systems. A new paradigm is thus needed. Therefore, we introduce a new class of dynamical systems that reinvent themselves as the dynamics unfold. Rather than only changing variables and parameters under a rigid framework, the governing laws are malleable themselves. The novel formulation captures and explains the coevolutionary dynamics of multiscale hydroclimatic systems, bringing along a physically sound understanding of their regimes, transitions and extremes over a long-term history.

Theoretical life history responses of juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss to changes in food availability using a dynamic state-dependent approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romine, Jason G.; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Perry, Russell W.; Casal, Lynne; Connolly, Patrick J.; Sauter, Sally S.

2013-01-01

Marine subsidies can play an important role in the growth, survival, and migratory behavior of rearing juvenile salmonids. Availability of high-energy, marine-derived food sources during critical decision windows may influence the timing of emigration or the decision to forego emigration completely and remain in the freshwater environment. Increasing growth and growth rate during these decision windows may result in an altered juvenile population structure, which will ultimately affect the adult population age-structure. We used a state dependent model to understand how the juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss population structure may respond to increased availability of salmon eggs in their diet during critical decision windows. Our models predicted an increase in smolt production until coho salmon eggs comprised more than 50 percent of juvenile O. mykiss diet at the peak of the spawning run. At higher-than intermediate levels of egg consumption, smolt production decreased owing to increasing numbers of fish adopting a resident life-history strategy. Additionally, greater growth rates decreased the number of age-3 smolts and increased the number of age-2 smolts. Increased growth rates with higher egg consumption also decreased the age at which fish adopted the resident pathway. Our models suggest that the introduction of a high-energy food source during critical periods of the year could be sufficient to increase smolt production.

Time-Structured and Net Intraindividual Variability: Tools for Examining the Development of Dynamic Characteristics and Processes

PubMed Central

Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2009-01-01

The study of intraindividual variability is the study of fluctuations, oscillations, adaptations, and “noise” in behavioral outcomes that manifest on micro-time scales. This paper provides a descriptive frame for the combined study of intraindividual variability and aging/development. At the conceptual level, we highlight that the study of intraindividual variability provides access to dynamic characteristics – construct-level descriptions of individuals' capacities for change (e.g., lability), and dynamic processes – the systematic changes individuals' exhibit in response to endogenous and exogenous influences (e.g., regulation). At the methodological level, we review how quantifications of net intraindividual variability (e.g., iSD) and models of time-structured intraindividual variability (e.g., time-series) are being used to measure and describe dynamic characteristics and processes. At the research design level, we point to the benefits of measurement burst study designs, wherein data are obtained across multiple time scales, for the study of development. PMID:20025395

Methodology for the Incorporation of Passive Component Aging Modeling into the RAVEN/ RELAP-7 Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mandelli, Diego; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua

2014-11-01

Passive system, structure and components (SSCs) will degrade over their operation life and this degradation may cause to reduction in the safety margins of a nuclear power plant. In traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using the event-tree/fault-tree methodology, passive SSC failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data and the true state of a specific plant is not reflected realistically. To address aging effects of passive SSCs in the traditional PRA methodology [1] does consider physics based models that account for the operating conditions in the plant, however, [1] does not include effects of surveillance/inspection. This paper representsmore » an overall methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive components into the RAVEN/RELAP-7 environment which provides a framework for performing dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties (including those associated with maintenance activities) in a consistent phenomenological and probabilistic framework and is often needed when there is complex process/hardware/software/firmware/ human interaction [2]. Dynamic PRA has gained attention recently due to difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics based models and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems. RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control Environment) [3] is a software package under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as an online control logic driver and post-processing tool. It is coupled to the plant transient code RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) also currently under development at INL [3], as well as RELAP 5 [4]. The overall methodology aims to: • Address multiple aging mechanisms involving large number of components in a computational feasible manner where sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation environment such as RELAP-7. • Identify the risk-significant passive components, their failure modes and anticipated rates of degradation • Incorporate surveillance and maintenance activities and their effects into the plant state and into component aging progress. • Asses aging affects in a dynamic simulation environment 1. C. L. SMITH, V. N. SHAH, T. KAO, G. APOSTOLAKIS, “Incorporating Ageing Effects into Probabilistic Risk Assessment –A Feasibility Study Utilizing Reliability Physics Models,” NUREG/CR-5632, USNRC, (2001). 2. T. ALDEMIR, “A Survey of Dynamic Methodologies for Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants, Annals of Nuclear Energy, 52, 113-124, (2013). 3. C. RABITI, A. ALFONSI, J. COGLIATI, D. MANDELLI and R. KINOSHITA “Reactor Analysis and Virtual Control Environment (RAVEN) FY12 Report,” INL/EXT-12-27351, (2012). 4. D. ANDERS et.al, "RELAP-7 Level 2 Milestone Report: Demonstration of a Steady State Single Phase PWR Simulation with RELAP-7," INL/EXT-12-25924, (2012).« less

Development and evaluation of the aerosol dynamics and gas phase chemistry model ADCHEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roldin, P.; Swietlicki, E.; Schurgers, G.; Arneth, A.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Boy, M.; Kulmala, M.

2011-06-01

The aim of this work was to develop a model suited for detailed studies of aerosol dynamics, gas and particle phase chemistry within urban plumes, from local scale (1 × 1 km2) to regional scale. This article describes and evaluates the trajectory model for Aerosol Dynamics, gas and particle phase CHEMistry and radiative transfer (ADCHEM). The model treats both vertical and horizontal dispersion perpendicular to an air mass trajectory (2-space dimensions). The Lagrangian approach enables a more detailed representation of the aerosol dynamics, gas and particle phase chemistry and a finer spatial and temporal resolution compared to that of available regional 3D-CTMs. These features make it among others well suited for urban plume studies. The aerosol dynamics model includes Brownian coagulation, dry deposition, wet deposition, in-cloud processing, condensation, evaporation, primary particle emissions and homogeneous nucleation. The organic mass partitioning was either modeled with a 2-dimensional volatility basis set (2D-VBS) or with the traditional two-product model approach. In ADCHEM these models consider the diffusion limited and particle size dependent condensation and evaporation of 110 and 40 different organic compounds respectively. The gas phase chemistry model calculates the gas phase concentrations of 61 different species, using 130 different chemical reactions. Daily isoprene and monoterpene emissions from European forests were simulated separately with the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, and included as input to ADCHEM. ADCHEM was used to simulate the ageing of the urban plumes from the city of Malmö in southern Sweden (280 000 inhabitants). Several sensitivity tests were performed concerning the number of size bins, size structure method, aerosol dynamic processes, vertical and horizontal mixing, coupled or uncoupled condensation and the secondary organic aerosol formation. The simulations show that the full-stationary size structure gives accurate results with little numerical diffusion when more than 50 size bins are used between 1.5 and 2500 nm, while the moving-center method is preferable when only a few size bins are selected. The particle number size distribution in the center of the urban plume from Malmö was mainly affected by dry deposition, coagulation and vertical dilution. The modeled PM2.5 mass was dominated by organic material, nitrate, sulfate and ammonium. If the condensation of HNO3 and NH3 was treated as a coupled process (pH independent) the model gave lower nitrate PM2.5 mass than if considering uncoupled condensation. Although the time of ageing from that SOA precursors are emitted until condensable products are formed is substantially different with the 2D-VBS and two product model, the models gave similar total organic mass concentrations.

A control-oriented lithium-ion battery pack model for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle cycle-life studies and system design with consideration of health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordoba-Arenas, Andrea; Onori, Simona; Rizzoni, Giorgio

2015-04-01

A crucial step towards the large-scale introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the market is to reduce the cost of its battery systems. Currently, battery cycle- and calendar-life represents one of the greatest uncertainties in the total life-cycle cost of battery systems. The field of battery aging modeling and prognosis has seen progress with respect to model-based and data-driven approaches to describe the aging of battery cells. However, in real world applications cells are interconnected and aging propagates. The propagation of aging from one cell to others exhibits itself in a reduced battery system life. This paper proposes a control-oriented battery pack model that describes the propagation of aging and its effect on the life span of battery systems. The modeling approach is such that it is able to predict pack aging, thermal, and electrical dynamics under actual PHEV operation, and includes consideration of random variability of the cells, electrical topology and thermal management. The modeling approach is based on the interaction between dynamic system models of the electrical and thermal dynamics, and dynamic models of cell aging. The system-level state-of-health (SOH) is assessed based on knowledge of individual cells SOH, pack electrical topology and voltage equalization approach.

[The structure of psychopathology associated with addictive disorders, against alcohol addiction and the possibility of it's neurometabolic correction in the elderly].

PubMed

Belov, V G; Parfenov, Iu A; Zaplutanov, V A; Khaĭrutdinov, D R

2013-01-01

The article presents the analysis of the structure and dynamics of psychopathology associated with addictive disorders in elderly patients with alcohol dependence. In terms of syndromic approach the structure of neurotic disease in elderly patients with a verified diagnosis of mental and behavioral disorders associated with alcohol consumption was evaluated. In the overall structure of neurotic pathology in these patients the analysis of symptoms of neurotic diseases, the research of the structure of syndromes and their dynamics were carried out, as well as the patient's attitude to the disease and to its manifestations was determined. A factor model of the pathogenesis of neurotic pathology connected with mental and behavioral disorders due to alcohol use in elderly patients was developed. The high clinical effectiveness of the drug "Cytoflavin" used in the reduction of psychiatric symptoms in patients aged from 62 to 74 years with a diagnosis of mental and behavioral disorders associated with alcohol consumption has been shown.

Altruistic aging: The evolutionary dynamics balancing longevity and evolvability.

PubMed

Herrera, Minette; Miller, Aaron; Nishimura, Joel

2017-04-01

Altruism is typically associated with traits or behaviors that benefit the population as a whole, but are costly to the individual. We propose that, when the environment is rapidly changing, senescence (age-related deterioration) can be altruistic. According to numerical simulations of an agent-based model, while long-lived individuals can outcompete their short lived peers, populations composed of long-lived individuals are more likely to go extinct during periods of rapid environmental change. Moreover, as in many situations where other cooperative behavior arises, senescence can be stabilized in a structured population.

A dynamic ecosystem growth model for forests at high complexity structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collalti, A.; Perugini, L.; Chiti, T.; Matteucci, G.; Oriani, A.; Santini, M.; Papale, D.; Valentini, R.

2012-04-01

Forests ecosystem play an important role in carbon cycle, biodiversity conservation and for other ecosystem services and changes in their structure and status perturb a delicate equilibrium that involves not only vegetation components but also biogeochemical cycles and global climate. The approaches to determine the magnitude of these effects are nowadays various and one of those include the use of models able to simulate structural changes and the variations in forests yield The present work shows the development of a forest dynamic model, on ecosystem spatial scale using the well known light use efficiency to determine Gross Primary Production. The model is predictive and permits to simulate processes that determine forest growth, its dynamic and the effects of forest management using eco-physiological parameters easy to be assessed and to be measured. The model has been designed to consider a tri-dimensional cell structure composed by different vertical layers depending on the forest type that has to be simulated. These features enable the model to work on multi-layer and multi-species forest types, typical of Mediterranean environment, at the resolution of one hectare and at monthly time-step. The model simulates, for each layer, a value of available Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) through Leaf Area Index, Light Extinction Coefficient and cell coverage, the transpiration rate that is closely linked to the intercepted light and the evaporation from soil. Using this model it is possible to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on forests that may result in decrease or increase of productivity as well as the feedback of one or more dominated layers in terms of CO2 uptake in a forest stand and the effects of forest management activities during the forest harvesting cycle. The model has been parameterised, validated and applied in a multi-layer, multi-age and multi-species Italian turkey oak forest (Q. cerris L., C. betulus L. and C. avellana L.) where the medium-term (10 years) development of forest parameters were simulated. The results obtained for net primary production and for stem, root and foliage compartments as well as for forest structure i.e. Diameter at Breast Height, height and canopy cover are in good accordance with field data (R2>0.95). These results show how the model is able to predict forest yield as well as forest dynamic with good accuracy and encourage testing the model capability on other sites with a more complex forest structure and for long-time period with an higher spatial resolution.

Loblolly pine foliar patterns and growth dynamics at age 12 in response to planting density and cultural intensity

Treesearch

Madison Katherine Akers; Michael Kane; Dehai Zhao; Richard F. Daniels; Robert O. Teskey

2015-01-01

Examining the role of foliage in stand development across a range of stand structures provides a more detailed understanding of the processes driving productivity and allows further development of process-based models for prediction. Productivity changes observed at the stand scale will be the integration of changes at the individual tree scale, but few studies have...

Laser speckle contrast imaging: monitoring blood flow dynamics and vascular structure of photodynamic therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qian; Zhou, Sibo; Zhang, Zhihong; Luo, Qingming

2005-01-01

Laser speckle contrast imaging (LSCI) is a noninvasive optical image technique that has been developed for imaging in vivo blood flow dynamics and vascular structure with high spatial and temporal resolution. It records the full-field spatio-temporal characteristics of microcirculation in real time without the need of laser beam flying. In this paper applications of this technique for monitoring changes of blood flow and vascular structure following photodynamic therapy (PDT) in vivo model were demonstrated. In this study, an in vivo model of chick chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) at embryo age (EA) of 10~13 days, was observed following PDT irradiated by a power tunable laser diode (λ = 656.5 nm). Laser intensity incident on the treatment site was maintained at 40 mW/cm2 and photosensitizer of Pyropheophorbide Acid (Pyro-Acid) was used. CAM was adopted in PDT since it is a transparent in vivo model and the irradiated lights of laser can penetrate tumor with greater depth. The laser delivered through fiber bundle to the treatment site in PDT also acted as the coherent light source of LSCI. This study shows that LSCI can be used to assess the efficacy of peripheral vessels damage of tumor in PDT by monitoring changes of blood flow and vascular structure.

Aeroelastic Modeling of a Nozzle Startup Transient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Zhao, Xiang; Zhang, Sijun; Chen, Yen-Sen

2014-01-01

Lateral nozzle forces are known to cause severe structural damage to any new rocket engine in development during test. While three-dimensional, transient, turbulent, chemically reacting computational fluid dynamics methodology has been demonstrated to capture major side load physics with rigid nozzles, hot-fire tests often show nozzle structure deformation during major side load events, leading to structural damages if structural strengthening measures were not taken. The modeling picture is incomplete without the capability to address the two-way responses between the structure and fluid. The objective of this study is to develop a tightly coupled aeroelastic modeling algorithm by implementing the necessary structural dynamics component into an anchored computational fluid dynamics methodology. The computational fluid dynamics component is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, while the computational structural dynamics component is developed under the framework of modal analysis. Transient aeroelastic nozzle startup analyses at sea level were performed, and the computed transient nozzle fluid-structure interaction physics presented,

Genus age, provincial area and the taxonomic structure of marine faunas.

PubMed

Harnik, Paul G; Jablonski, David; Krug, Andrew Z; Valentine, James W

2010-11-22

Species are unevenly distributed among genera within clades and regions, with most genera species-poor and few species-rich. At regional scales, this structure to taxonomic diversity is generated via speciation, extinction and geographical range dynamics. Here, we use a global database of extant marine bivalves to characterize the taxonomic structure of climate zones and provinces. Our analyses reveal a general, Zipf-Mandelbrot form to the distribution of species among genera, with faunas from similar climate zones exhibiting similar taxonomic structure. Provinces that contain older taxa and/or encompass larger areas are expected to be more species-rich. Although both median genus age and provincial area correlate with measures of taxonomic structure, these relationships are interdependent, nonlinear and driven primarily by contrasts between tropical and extra-tropical faunas. Provincial area and taxonomic structure are largely decoupled within climate zones. Counter to the expectation that genus age and species richness should positively covary, diverse and highly structured provincial faunas are dominated by young genera. The marked differences between tropical and temperate faunas suggest strong spatial variation in evolutionary rates and invasion frequencies. Such variation contradicts biogeographic models that scale taxonomic diversity to geographical area.

Genus age, provincial area and the taxonomic structure of marine faunas

PubMed Central

Harnik, Paul G.; Jablonski, David; Krug, Andrew Z.; Valentine, James W.

2010-01-01

Species are unevenly distributed among genera within clades and regions, with most genera species-poor and few species-rich. At regional scales, this structure to taxonomic diversity is generated via speciation, extinction and geographical range dynamics. Here, we use a global database of extant marine bivalves to characterize the taxonomic structure of climate zones and provinces. Our analyses reveal a general, Zipf–Mandelbrot form to the distribution of species among genera, with faunas from similar climate zones exhibiting similar taxonomic structure. Provinces that contain older taxa and/or encompass larger areas are expected to be more species-rich. Although both median genus age and provincial area correlate with measures of taxonomic structure, these relationships are interdependent, nonlinear and driven primarily by contrasts between tropical and extra-tropical faunas. Provincial area and taxonomic structure are largely decoupled within climate zones. Counter to the expectation that genus age and species richness should positively covary, diverse and highly structured provincial faunas are dominated by young genera. The marked differences between tropical and temperate faunas suggest strong spatial variation in evolutionary rates and invasion frequencies. Such variation contradicts biogeographic models that scale taxonomic diversity to geographical area. PMID:20534619

Dynamic GSCA (Generalized Structured Component Analysis) with Applications to the Analysis of Effective Connectivity in Functional Neuroimaging Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jung, Kwanghee; Takane, Yoshio; Hwang, Heungsun; Woodward, Todd S.

2012-01-01

We propose a new method of structural equation modeling (SEM) for longitudinal and time series data, named Dynamic GSCA (Generalized Structured Component Analysis). The proposed method extends the original GSCA by incorporating a multivariate autoregressive model to account for the dynamic nature of data taken over time. Dynamic GSCA also…

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress-Insights from a System Dynamics-Individual-Based Hybrid Model.

PubMed

Vincenot, Christian E; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)-Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed.

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

EBSD Imaging of Monazite: a Petrochronological Tool?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, C. M.; Cottle, J. M.

2014-12-01

Recent advances in in-situ U-Th/Pb monazite petrochronology allow ages obtained from micron-scale portions of texturally-constrained, individual crystals to be placed directly into a quantitative Pressure-Temperature framework. However, there remain major unresolved challenges in linking monazite ages to specific deformation events and discerning the effects of deformation on the isotopic and elemental tracers in these phases. Few studies have quantitatively investigated monazite microstructure, and these studies have largely focused only on crystals produced experimentally (e.g. Reddy et al., 2010). The dispersion in age data commonly yielded from monazite U-Th/Pb datasets suggest that monazite dynamically recrystallises during deformation. It remains unclear how this continual recrystallisation is reflected in the monazite crystal structure, and how this subsequently impacts the ages (or age ranges) yielded from single crystals. Here, combined laser ablation split-stream analysis of deformed monazite, EBSD imaging and Pressure-Temperature (P-T) phase equilibria modelling is used to quantify the influence of deformation on monazite (re)crystallisation mechanisms and its subsequent effect on the crystallographic structure, ages and trace-element distribution in individual grains. These data provide links between ages and specific deformation events, thus helping further our understanding of the role of dynamic recrystallisation in producing age variation within and between crystals in a deformed rock. These data provide a new dimension to the field of petrochronology, demonstrating the importance of fully integrating the Pressure-Temperature-time-deformation history of accessory phases to better interpret the meaningfulness of ages yielded from deformed rocks. Reddy, S. et al., 2010. Mineralogical Magazine 74: 493-506

NASTRAN analysis of the 1/8-scale space shuttle dynamic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernstein, M.; Mason, P. W.; Zalesak, J.; Gregory, D. J.; Levy, A.

1973-01-01

The space shuttle configuration has more complex structural dynamic characteristics than previous launch vehicles primarily because of the high model density at low frequencies and the high degree of coupling between the lateral and longitudinal motions. An accurate analytical representation of these characteristics is a primary means for treating structural dynamics problems during the design phase of the shuttle program. The 1/8-scale model program was developed to explore the adequacy of available analytical modeling technology and to provide the means for investigating problems which are more readily treated experimentally. The basic objectives of the 1/8-scale model program are: (1) to provide early verification of analytical modeling procedures on a shuttle-like structure, (2) to demonstrate important vehicle dynamic characteristics of a typical shuttle design, (3) to disclose any previously unanticipated structural dynamic characteristics, and (4) to provide for development and demonstration of cost effective prototype testing procedures.

Structural Stability of Mathematical Models of National Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashimov, Abdykappar A.; Sultanov, Bahyt T.; Borovskiy, Yuriy V.; Adilov, Zheksenbek M.; Ashimov, Askar A.

2011-12-01

In the paper we test robustness of particular dynamic systems in a compact regions of a plane and a weak structural stability of one dynamic system of high order in a compact region of its phase space. The test was carried out based on the fundamental theory of dynamical systems on a plane and based on the conditions for weak structural stability of high order dynamic systems. A numerical algorithm for testing the weak structural stability of high order dynamic systems has been proposed. Based on this algorithm we assess the weak structural stability of one computable general equilibrium model.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Coupling age-structured stock assessment and fish bioenergetics models: a system of time-varying models for quantifying piscivory patterns during the rapid trophic shift in the main basin of Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Dobiesz, Norine E.; Fielder, David G.; Johnson, James E.; Ebener, Mark P.; Cottrill, Adam R.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Koproski, Scott R.

2015-01-01

We quantified piscivory patterns in the main basin of Lake Huron during 1984–2010 and found that the biomass transfer from prey fish to piscivores remained consistently high despite the rapid major trophic shift in the food webs. We coupled age-structured stock assessment models and fish bioenergetics models for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), walleye (Sander vitreus), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). The model system also included time-varying parameters or variables of growth, length–mass relations, maturity schedules, energy density, and diets. These time-varying models reflected the dynamic connections that a fish cohort responded to year-to-year ecosystem changes at different ages and body sizes. We found that the ratio of annual predation by lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye combined with the biomass indices of age-1 and older alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) increased more than tenfold during 1987–2010, and such increases in predation pressure were structured by relatively stable biomass of the three piscivores and stepwise declines in the biomass of alewives and rainbow smelt. The piscivore stability was supported by the use of alternative energy pathways and changes in relative composition of the three piscivores. In addition, lake whitefish became a new piscivore by feeding on round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). Their total fish consumption rivaled that of the other piscivores combined, although fish were still a modest proportion of their diet. Overall, the use of alternative energy pathways by piscivores allowed the increases in predation pressure on dominant diet species.

Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-10-13

For influenza forecasts generated using dynamical models, forecast inaccuracy is partly attributable to the nonlinear growth of error. As a consequence, quantification of the nonlinear error structure in current forecast models is needed so that this growth can be corrected and forecast skill improved. Here, we inspect the error growth of a compartmental influenza model and find that a robust error structure arises naturally from the nonlinear model dynamics. By counteracting these structural errors, diagnosed using error breeding, we develop a new forecast approach that combines dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques. In retrospective forecasts of historical influenza outbreaks for 95 US cities from 2003 to 2014, overall forecast accuracy for outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and attack rate, are substantially improved for predicted lead times up to 10 weeks. This error growth correction method can be generalized to improve the forecast accuracy of other infectious disease dynamical models.Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.

The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

2015-07-01

Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A model structure for identification of linear models of the UH-60 helicopter in hover and forward flight

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

A linear model structure applicable to identification of the UH-60 flight : dynamics in hover and forward flight without rotor-state data is developed. The : structure of the model is determined through consideration of the important : dynamic modes ...

A structural model for apolipoprotein C-II amyloid fibrils: experimental characterization and molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Teoh, Chai Lean; Pham, Chi L L; Todorova, Nevena; Hung, Andrew; Lincoln, Craig N; Lees, Emma; Lam, Yuen Han; Binger, Katrina J; Thomson, Neil H; Radford, Sheena E; Smith, Trevor A; Müller, Shirley A; Engel, Andreas; Griffin, Michael D W; Yarovsky, Irene; Gooley, Paul R; Howlett, Geoffrey J

2011-02-04

The self-assembly of specific proteins to form insoluble amyloid fibrils is a characteristic feature of a number of age-related and debilitating diseases. Lipid-free human apolipoprotein C-II (apoC-II) forms characteristic amyloid fibrils and is one of several apolipoproteins that accumulate in amyloid deposits located within atherosclerotic plaques. X-ray diffraction analysis of aligned apoC-II fibrils indicated a simple cross-β-structure composed of two parallel β-sheets. Examination of apoC-II fibrils using transmission electron microscopy, scanning transmission electron microscopy, and atomic force microscopy indicated that the fibrils are flat ribbons composed of one apoC-II molecule per 4.7-Å rise of the cross-β-structure. Cross-linking results using single-cysteine substitution mutants are consistent with a parallel in-register structural model for apoC-II fibrils. Fluorescence resonance energy transfer analysis of apoC-II fibrils labeled with specific fluorophores provided distance constraints for selected donor-acceptor pairs located within the fibrils. These findings were used to develop a simple 'letter-G-like' β-strand-loop-β-strand model for apoC-II fibrils. Fully solvated all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations showed that the model contained a stable cross-β-core with a flexible connecting loop devoid of persistent secondary structure. The time course of the MD simulations revealed that charge clusters in the fibril rearrange to minimize the effects of same-charge interactions inherent in parallel in-register models. Our structural model for apoC-II fibrils suggests that apoC-II monomers fold and self-assemble to form a stable cross-β-scaffold containing relatively unstructured connecting loops. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-related changes in the topological organization of the white matter structural connectome across the human lifespan.

PubMed

Zhao, Tengda; Cao, Miao; Niu, Haijing; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Evans, Alan; He, Yong; Dong, Qi; Shu, Ni

2015-10-01

Lifespan is a dynamic process with remarkable changes in brain structure and function. Previous neuroimaging studies have indicated age-related microstructural changes in specific white matter tracts during development and aging. However, the age-related alterations in the topological architecture of the white matter structural connectome across the human lifespan remain largely unknown. Here, a cohort of 113 healthy individuals (ages 9-85) with both diffusion and structural MRI acquisitions were examined. For each participant, the high-resolution white matter structural networks were constructed by deterministic fiber tractography among 1024 parcellation units and were quantified with graph theoretical analyses. The global network properties, including network strength, cost, topological efficiency, and robustness, followed an inverted U-shaped trajectory with a peak age around the third decade. The brain areas with the most significantly nonlinear changes were located in the prefrontal and temporal cortices. Different brain regions exhibited heterogeneous trajectories: the posterior cingulate and lateral temporal cortices displayed prolonged maturation/degeneration compared with the prefrontal cortices. Rich-club organization was evident across the lifespan, whereas hub integration decreased linearly with age, especially accompanied by the loss of frontal hubs and their connections. Additionally, age-related changes in structural connections were predominantly located within and between the prefrontal and temporal modules. Finally, based on the graph metrics of structural connectome, accurate predictions of individual age were obtained (r = 0.77). Together, the data indicated a dynamic topological organization of the brain structural connectome across human lifespan, which may provide possible structural substrates underlying functional and cognitive changes with age. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Time Alignment as a Necessary Step in the Analysis of Sleep Probabilistic Curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rošt'áková, Zuzana; Rosipal, Roman

2018-02-01

Sleep can be characterised as a dynamic process that has a finite set of sleep stages during the night. The standard Rechtschaffen and Kales sleep model produces discrete representation of sleep and does not take into account its dynamic structure. In contrast, the continuous sleep representation provided by the probabilistic sleep model accounts for the dynamics of the sleep process. However, analysis of the sleep probabilistic curves is problematic when time misalignment is present. In this study, we highlight the necessity of curve synchronisation before further analysis. Original and in time aligned sleep probabilistic curves were transformed into a finite dimensional vector space, and their ability to predict subjects' age or daily measures is evaluated. We conclude that curve alignment significantly improves the prediction of the daily measures, especially in the case of the S2-related sleep states or slow wave sleep.

Mathematical Analysis of an SIQR Influenza Model with Imperfect Quarantine.

PubMed

Erdem, Mustafa; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2017-07-01

The identification of mechanisms responsible for recurrent epidemic outbreaks, such as age structure, cross-immunity and variable delays in the infective classes, has challenged and fascinated epidemiologists and mathematicians alike. This paper addresses, motivated by mathematical work on influenza models, the impact of imperfect quarantine on the dynamics of SIR-type models. A susceptible-infectious-quarantine-recovered (SIQR) model is formulated with quarantined individuals altering the transmission dynamics process through their possibly reduced ability to generate secondary cases of infection. Mathematical and numerical analyses of the model of the equilibria and their stability have been carried out. Uniform persistence of the model has been established. Numerical simulations show that the model supports Hopf bifurcation as a function of the values of the quarantine effectiveness and other parameters. The upshot of this work is somewhat surprising since it is shown that SIQR model oscillatory behavior, as shown by multiple researchers, is in fact not robust to perturbations in the quarantine regime.

The simultaneous evolution of author and paper networks

PubMed Central

Börner, Katy; Maru, Jeegar T.; Goldstone, Robert L.

2004-01-01

There has been a long history of research into the structure and evolution of mankind's scientific endeavor. However, recent progress in applying the tools of science to understand science itself has been unprecedented because only recently has there been access to high-volume and high-quality data sets of scientific output (e.g., publications, patents, grants) and computers and algorithms capable of handling this enormous stream of data. This article reviews major work on models that aim to capture and recreate the structure and dynamics of scientific evolution. We then introduce a general process model that simultaneously grows coauthor and paper citation networks. The statistical and dynamic properties of the networks generated by this model are validated against a 20-year data set of articles published in PNAS. Systematic deviations from a power law distribution of citations to papers are well fit by a model that incorporates a partitioning of authors and papers into topics, a bias for authors to cite recent papers, and a tendency for authors to cite papers cited by papers that they have read. In this TARL model (for topics, aging, and recursive linking), the number of topics is linearly related to the clustering coefficient of the simulated paper citation network. PMID:14976254

Rebuilding after collapse: evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boehmer, Hans Juergen; Wagner, Helene H.; Jacobi, James D.; Gerrish, Grant C.; Mueller-Dombois, Dieter

2013-01-01

Questions: Do long-term observations in permanent plots confirm the conceptual model of Metrosideros polymorpha cohort dynamics as postulated in 1987? Do regeneration patterns occur independently of substrate age, i.e. of direct volcanic disturbance impact? Location: The windward mountain slopes of the younger Mauna Loa and the older Mauna Kea volcanoes (island of Hawaii, USA). Methods: After widespread forest decline (dieback), permanent plots were established in 1976 in 13 dieback and 13 non-dieback patches to monitor the population structure of M. polymorpha at ca. 5-yr intervals. Within each plot of 20 × 20 m, all trees with DBH >2.5 cm were individually tagged, measured and tree vigour assessed; regeneration was quantified in 16 systematically placed subplots of 3 × 5 m. Data collected in the subplots included the total number of M. polymorpha seedlings and saplings (five stem height classes). Here we analyse monitoring data from six time steps from 1976 to 2003 using repeated measures ANOVA to test specific predictions derived from the 1987 conceptual model. Results: Regeneration was significantly different between dieback and non-dieback plots. In dieback plots, the collapse in the 1970s was followed by a ‘sapling wave’ that by 2003 led to new cohort stands of M. polymorpha. In non-dieback stands, seedling emergence did not result in sapling waves over the same period. Instead, a ‘sapling gap’ (i.e. very few or no M. polymorpha saplings) prevailed as typical for mature stands. Canopy dieback in 1976, degree of recovery by 2003 and the number of living trees in 2003 were unrelated to substrate age. Conclusions: Population development of M. polymorpha supports the cohort dynamics model, which predicts rebuilding of the forest with the same canopy species after dieback. The lack of association with substrate age suggests that the long-term maintenance of cohort structure in M. polymorpha does not depend on volcanic disturbance but may be related to other environmental mechanisms, such as climate anomalies.

Dynamic spectral structure specifies vowels for children and adultsa

PubMed Central

Nittrouer, Susan

2008-01-01

When it comes to making decisions regarding vowel quality, adults seem to weight dynamic syllable structure more strongly than static structure, although disagreement exists over the nature of the most relevant kind of dynamic structure: spectral change intrinsic to the vowel or structure arising from movements between consonant and vowel constrictions. Results have been even less clear regarding the signal components children use in making vowel judgments. In this experiment, listeners of four different ages (adults, and 3-, 5-, and 7-year-old children) were asked to label stimuli that sounded either like steady-state vowels or like CVC syllables which sometimes had middle sections masked by coughs. Four vowel contrasts were used, crossed for type (front/back or closed/open) and consonant context (strongly or only slightly constraining of vowel tongue position). All listeners recognized vowel quality with high levels of accuracy in all conditions, but children were disproportionately hampered by strong coarticulatory effects when only steady-state formants were available. Results clarified past studies, showing that dynamic structure is critical to vowel perception for all aged listeners, but particularly for young children, and that it is the dynamic structure arising from vocal-tract movement between consonant and vowel constrictions that is most important. PMID:17902868

Age-Related Imbalance Is Associated With Slower Walking Speed: An Analysis From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PubMed

Xie, Yanjun J; Liu, Elizabeth Y; Anson, Eric R; Agrawal, Yuri

Walking speed is an important dimension of gait function and is known to decline with age. Gait function is a process of dynamic balance and motor control that relies on multiple sensory inputs (eg, visual, proprioceptive, and vestibular) and motor outputs. These sensory and motor physiologic systems also play a role in static postural control, which has been shown to decline with age. In this study, we evaluated whether imbalance that occurs as part of healthy aging is associated with slower walking speed in a nationally representative sample of older adults. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the previously collected 1999 to 2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data to evaluate whether age-related imbalance is associated with slower walking speed in older adults aged 50 to 85 years (n = 2116). Balance was assessed on a pass/fail basis during a challenging postural task-condition 4 of the modified Romberg Test-and walking speed was determined using a 20-ft (6.10 m) timed walk. Multivariable linear regression was used to evaluate the association between imbalance and walking speed, adjusting for demographic and health-related covariates. A structural equation model was developed to estimate the extent to which imbalance mediates the association between age and slower walking speed. In the unadjusted regression model, inability to perform the NHANES balance task was significantly associated with 0.10 m/s slower walking speed (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to -0.07; P < .01). In the multivariable regression analysis, inability to perform the balance task was significantly associated with 0.06 m/s slower walking speed (95% confidence interval: -0.09 to -0.03; P < .01), an effect size equivalent to 12 years of age. The structural equation model estimated that age-related imbalance mediates 12.2% of the association between age and slower walking speed in older adults. In a nationally representative sample, age-related balance limitation was associated with slower walking speed. Balance impairment may lead to walking speed declines. In addition, reduced static postural control and dynamic walking speed that occur with aging may share common etiologic origins, including the decline in visual, proprioceptive, and vestibular sensory and motor functions.

Mid-frequency Band Dynamics of Large Space Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coppolino, Robert N.; Adams, Douglas S.

2004-01-01

High and low intensity dynamic environments experienced by a spacecraft during launch and on-orbit operations, respectively, induce structural loads and motions, which are difficult to reliably predict. Structural dynamics in low- and mid-frequency bands are sensitive to component interface uncertainty and non-linearity as evidenced in laboratory testing and flight operations. Analytical tools for prediction of linear system response are not necessarily adequate for reliable prediction of mid-frequency band dynamics and analysis of measured laboratory and flight data. A new MATLAB toolbox, designed to address the key challenges of mid-frequency band dynamics, is introduced in this paper. Finite-element models of major subassemblies are defined following rational frequency-wavelength guidelines. For computational efficiency, these subassemblies are described as linear, component mode models. The complete structural system model is composed of component mode subassemblies and linear or non-linear joint descriptions. Computation and display of structural dynamic responses are accomplished employing well-established, stable numerical methods, modern signal processing procedures and descriptive graphical tools. Parametric sensitivity and Monte-Carlo based system identification tools are used to reconcile models with experimental data and investigate the effects of uncertainties. Models and dynamic responses are exported for employment in applications, such as detailed structural integrity and mechanical-optical-control performance analyses.

Open framework for management and processing of multi-modality and multidimensional imaging data for analysis and modelling muscular function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Juan, David; Delattre, Bénédicte M. A.; Trombella, Sara; Lynch, Sean; Becker, Matthias; Choi, Hon Fai; Ratib, Osman

2014-03-01

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are becoming a big healthcare economical burden in developed countries with aging population. Classical methods like biopsy or EMG used in clinical practice for muscle assessment are invasive and not accurately sufficient for measurement of impairments of muscular performance. Non-invasive imaging techniques can nowadays provide effective alternatives for static and dynamic assessment of muscle function. In this paper we present work aimed toward the development of a generic data structure for handling n-dimensional metabolic and anatomical data acquired from hybrid PET/MR scanners. Special static and dynamic protocols were developed for assessment of physical and functional images of individual muscles of the lower limb. In an initial stage of the project a manual segmentation of selected muscles was performed on high-resolution 3D static images and subsequently interpolated to full dynamic set of contours from selected 2D dynamic images across different levels of the leg. This results in a full set of 4D data of lower limb muscles at rest and during exercise. These data can further be extended to a 5D data by adding metabolic data obtained from PET images. Our data structure and corresponding image processing extension allows for better evaluation of large volumes of multidimensional imaging data that are acquired and processed to generate dynamic models of the moving lower limb and its muscular function.

Mastodon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin Leigh; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Bolisetti, Chandrakanth

MASTODON has the capability to model stochastic nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) in a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework. The NLSSI simulations include structural dynamics, time integration, dynamic porous media flow, nonlinear hysteretic soil constitutive models, geometric nonlinearities (gapping, sliding, and uplift). MASTODON is also the MOOSE based master application for dynamic PRA of external hazards.

Is Cycloxygenase-2 (COX-2) a Major Component of the Mechanism Responsible for Microvascular Remodeling in the Brain?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaManna, Joseph C.; Sun, Xiaoyan; Ivy, Andre D.; Ward, Nicole L.

We have used a relatively simple model of hypoxia that triggers adaptive structural changes in the cerebral microvasculature to study the process of physiological angiogenesis. This model can be used to obtain mechanistic data for the processes that probably underlie the dynamic structural changes that occur in learning and the control of oxygen availability to the neurovascular unit. These mechanisms are broadly involved in a wide variety of pathophysiological processes. This is the vascular component to CNS functional plasticity, supporting learning and adaptation. The angiogenic process may wane with age, contributing to the decreasing ability to survive metabolic stress and the diminution of neuronal plasticity.

Dynamic analysis of a hepatitis B model with three-age-classes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Suxia; Zhou, Yicang

2014-07-01

Based on the fact that the likelihood of becoming chronically infected is dependent on age at primary infection Kane (1995) [2], Edmunds et al. (1993) [3], Medley et al. (2001) [4], and Ganem and Prince (2004) [6], we formulate a hepatitis B transmission model with three age classes. The reproduction number, R0 is defined and the dynamical behavior of the model is analyzed. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R0<1, and there exists at least one endemic equilibrium and that the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1. The unique endemic equilibrium and its global stability is obtained in a special case. Simulations are also conducted to compare the dynamical behavior of the model with and without age classes.

Reoccupation of floodplains by rivers and its relation to the age structure of floodplain vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.

2012-01-01

River channel dynamics over many decades provide a physical control on the age structure of floodplain vegetation as a river occupies and abandons locations. Floodplain reoccupation by a river, in particular, determines the interval of time during which vegetation can establish and mature. A general framework for analyzing floodplain reoccupation and a time series model are developed and applied to five alluvial rivers in the United States. Channel dynamics in these rivers demonstrate time-scale dependence with short-term oscillation in active channel area in response to floods and subsequent vegetation growth and progressive lateral movement that accounts for much of the cumulative area occupied by the rivers over decades. Rivers preferentially reoccupy locations recently abandoned causing a decreasing probability of reoccupation with time since abandonment. For a typical case, a river is 10 times more likely to reoccupy an area it abandoned in the past decade than it is to reoccupy an area it abandoned 30 yrs ago. The decreasing probability of reoccupation over time is consistent with observations of persistent stands of late seral stage floodplain forest. A power function provides a robust approach for estimating the cumulative area occupied by a river and the age structure of riparian forests resulting from a specific historical sequence of streamflow in comparison to either linear or exponential alternatives.

Aging by epigenetics-A consequence of chromatin damage?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sedivy, John M.; Banumathy, Gowrishankar; Adams, Peter D.

Chromatin structure is not fixed. Instead, chromatin is dynamic and is subject to extensive developmental and age-associated remodeling. In some cases, this remodeling appears to counter the aging and age-associated diseases, such as cancer, and extend organismal lifespan. However, stochastic non-deterministic changes in chromatin structure might, over time, also contribute to the break down of nuclear, cell and tissue function, and consequently aging and age-associated diseases.

Neighborhood Age Structure and its Implications for Health

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Age structure at the neighborhood level is rarely considered in contextual studies of health. However, age structure can play a critical role in shaping community life, the availability of resources, and the opportunities for social engagement—all factors that, research suggests, have direct and indirect effects on health. Age structure can be theorized as a compositional effect and as a contextual effect. In addition, the dynamic nature of age structure and the utility of a life course perspective as applied to neighborhood effects research merits attention. Four Chicago neighborhoods are summarized to illustrate how age structure varies across small space, suggesting that neighborhood age structure should be considered a key structural covariate in contextual research on health. Considering age structure implies incorporating not only meaningful cut points for important age groups (e.g., proportion 65 years and over) but attention to the shape of the distribution as well. PMID:16865558

Analysis of the dynamic behavior of structures using the high-rate GNSS-PPP method combined with a wavelet-neural model: Numerical simulation and experimental tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaloop, Mosbeh R.; Yigit, Cemal O.; Hu, Jong W.

2018-03-01

Recently, the high rate global navigation satellite system-precise point positioning (GNSS-PPP) technique has been used to detect the dynamic behavior of structures. This study aimed to increase the accuracy of the extraction oscillation properties of structural movements based on the high-rate (10 Hz) GNSS-PPP monitoring technique. A developmental model based on the combination of wavelet package transformation (WPT) de-noising and neural network prediction (NN) was proposed to improve the dynamic behavior of structures for GNSS-PPP method. A complicated numerical simulation involving highly noisy data and 13 experimental cases with different loads were utilized to confirm the efficiency of the proposed model design and the monitoring technique in detecting the dynamic behavior of structures. The results revealed that, when combined with the proposed model, GNSS-PPP method can be used to accurately detect the dynamic behavior of engineering structures as an alternative to relative GNSS method.

Exploring oxidative ageing behaviour of hydrocarbons using ab initio molecular dynamics analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Tongyan; Cheng, Cheng

2016-06-01

With a proper approximate solution to the Schrödinger Equation of a multi-electron system, the method of ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) performs first-principles molecular dynamics analysis without pre-defining interatomic potentials as are mandatory in traditional molecular dynamics analyses. The objective of this study is to determine the oxidative-ageing pathway of petroleum asphalt as a typical hydrocarbon system, using the AIMD method. This objective was accomplished in three steps, including (1) identifying a group of representative asphalt molecules to model, (2) determining an atomistic modelling method that can effectively simulate the production of critical functional groups in oxidative ageing of hydrocarbons and (3) evaluating the oxidative-ageing pathway of a hydrocarbon system. The determination of oxidative-ageing pathway of hydrocarbons was done by tracking the generations of critical functional groups in the course of oxidative ageing. The chemical elements of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur all experience oxidative reactions, producing polarised functional groups such as ketones, aldehydes or carboxylic acids, pyrrolic groups and sulphoxides. The electrostatic forces of the polarised groups generated in oxidation are responsible for the behaviour of aged hydrocarbons. The developed AIMD model can be used for modelling the ageing of generic hydrocarbon polymers and developing antioxidants without running expensive experiments.

Officer Career Development: Analytic Strategy Recommendations

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-07-01

model is perhaps better suited to experimental designs where investigators determine discrete values for each Xi and then randomly sample subjects into... experimental designs . New York: McGraw-Hill. ,Terlove, 4. (1971). Further evidence on the estimation of dynamic economic relations from a time series of...Cunningham. W. R., & Birren, 1. E. (1980). Age chsane in the factor Newseroade. I R., & Labouvie. E V. 1985) Experimental design in structure of

Memory Effect Manifested by a Boson Peak in Metallic Glass.

PubMed

Luo, P; Li, Y Z; Bai, H Y; Wen, P; Wang, W H

2016-04-29

We explore the correlation between a boson peak and structural relaxation in a typical metallic glass. Consistent with enthalpy recovery, a boson peak shows a memory effect in an aging-and-scan procedure. Single-step isothermal aging produces a monotonic decrease of enthalpy and boson peak intensity; for double-step isothermal aging, both enthalpy and boson peak intensity experience, coincidently, an incipient increase to a maximum and a subsequent decrease toward the equilibrium state. Our results indicate a direct link between slow structural relaxation and fast boson peak dynamics, which presents a profound understanding of the two dynamic behaviors in glass.

X-56A MUTT: Aeroservoelastic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouellette, Jeffrey A.

2015-01-01

For the NASA X-56a Program, Armstrong Flight Research Center has been developing a set of linear states space models that integrate the flight dynamics and structural dynamics. These high order models are needed for the control design, control evaluation, and test input design. The current focus has been on developing stiff wing models to validate the current modeling approach. The extension of the modeling approach to the flexible wings requires only a change in the structural model. Individual subsystems models (actuators, inertial properties, etc.) have been validated by component level ground tests. Closed loop simulation of maneuvers designed to validate the flight dynamics of these models correlates very well flight test data. The open loop structural dynamics are also shown to correlate well to the flight test data.

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator Version 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Chonggang; Christoffersen, Bradley

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is a vegetation model for use in Earth system models (ESMs). The model includes a size- and age-structured representation of tree dynamics, competition between functionally diverse plant functional types, and the biophysics underpinning plant growth, competition, mortality, as well as the carbon, water, and energy exchange with the atmosphere. The FATES model is designed as a modular vegetation model that can be integrated within a host land model for inclusion in ESMs. The model is designed for use in global change studies to understand and project the responses and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems andmore » the Earth system under changing climate and other forcings.« less

Dynamic and Structural Gas Turbine Engine Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turso, James A.

2003-01-01

Model the interactions between the structural dynamics and the performance dynamics of a gas turbine engine. Generally these two aspects are considered separate, unrelated phenomena and are studied independently. For diagnostic purposes, it is desirable to bring together as much information as possible, and that involves understanding how performance is affected by structural dynamics (if it is) and vice versa. This can involve the relationship between thrust response and the excitation of structural modes, for instance. The job will involve investigating and characterizing these dynamical relationships, generating a model that incorporates them, and suggesting and/or developing diagnostic and prognostic techniques that can be incorporated in a data fusion system. If no coupling is found, at the least a vibration model should be generated that can be used for diagnostics and prognostics related to blade loss, for instance.

Time scale of dynamic heterogeneity in model ionic liquids and its relation to static length scale and charge distribution.

PubMed

Park, Sang-Won; Kim, Soree; Jung, YounJoon

2015-11-21

We study how dynamic heterogeneity in ionic liquids is affected by the length scale of structural relaxation and the ionic charge distribution by the molecular dynamics simulations performed on two differently charged models of ionic liquid and their uncharged counterpart. In one model of ionic liquid, the charge distribution in the cation is asymmetric, and in the other it is symmetric, while their neutral counterpart has no charge with the ions. It is found that all the models display heterogeneous dynamics, exhibiting subdiffusive dynamics and a nonexponential decay of structural relaxation. We investigate the lifetime of dynamic heterogeneity, τ(dh), in these systems by calculating the three-time correlation functions to find that τ(dh) has in general a power-law behavior with respect to the structural relaxation time, τ(α), i.e., τ(dh) ∝ τ(α)(ζ(dh)). Although the dynamics of the asymmetric-charge model is seemingly more heterogeneous than that of the symmetric-charge model, the exponent is found to be similar, ζ(dh) ≈ 1.2, for all the models studied in this work. The same scaling relation is found regardless of interactions, i.e., with or without Coulomb interaction, and it holds even when the length scale of structural relaxation is long enough to become the Fickian diffusion. This fact indicates that τ(dh) is a distinctive time scale from τ(α), and the dynamic heterogeneity is mainly affected by the short-range interaction and the molecular structure.

Mechanical properties of multifunctional structure with viscoelastic components based on FVE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Dong; Zhang, Lin; Yu, Jing; Mao, Daiyong

2018-02-01

Based on the models of Lion and Kardelky (2004) and Hofer and Lion (2009), a finite viscoelastic (FVE) constitutive model, considering the predeformation-, frequency- and amplitude-dependent properties, has been proposed in our earlier paper [1]. FVE model is applied to investigating the dynamic characteristics of the multifunctional structure with the viscoelastic components. Combing FVE model with the finite element theory, the dynamic model of the multifunctional structure could be obtained. Additionally, the parametric identification and the experimental verification are also given via the frequency-sweep tests. The results show that the computational data agree well with the experimental data. FVE model has made a success of expressing the dynamic characteristics of the viscoelastic materials utilized in the multifunctional structure. The multifunctional structure technology has been verified by in-orbit experiments.

Effect of aging and ice structuring proteins on the morphology of frozen hydrated gluten networks.

PubMed

Kontogiorgos, Vassilis; Goff, H Douglas; Kasapis, Stefan

2007-04-01

The present investigation constitutes an attempt to rationalize the effect of aging and ice structuring proteins (ISPs) on the network morphology of frozen hydrated gluten. In doing so, it employs differential scanning calorimetry, time-domain NMR, dynamic oscillation on shear, creep testing, and electron microscopy. Experimentation and first principles modeling allows identification and description of the processes of ice formation and recrystallization in molecular terms. It is demonstrated that in the absence of a readily discernible glass transition temperature in gluten-ice composites, the approach of considering the melting point and aging at constant or fluctuating temperature conditions in the vicinity of this point can provide a valid index of functional quality. A theoretical framework supporting the concept of capillary confined frozen water in the gluten matrix was advanced, and it was found that ISPs were effective in controlling recrystallization both within these confines and within ice in the bulk.

Theoretical and software considerations for nonlinear dynamic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, R. J.; Dodds, R. H., Jr.

1983-01-01

In the finite element method for structural analysis, it is generally necessary to discretize the structural model into a very large number of elements to accurately evaluate displacements, strains, and stresses. As the complexity of the model increases, the number of degrees of freedom can easily exceed the capacity of present-day software system. Improvements of structural analysis software including more efficient use of existing hardware and improved structural modeling techniques are discussed. One modeling technique that is used successfully in static linear and nonlinear analysis is multilevel substructuring. This research extends the use of multilevel substructure modeling to include dynamic analysis and defines the requirements for a general purpose software system capable of efficient nonlinear dynamic analysis. The multilevel substructuring technique is presented, the analytical formulations and computational procedures for dynamic analysis and nonlinear mechanics are reviewed, and an approach to the design and implementation of a general purpose structural software system is presented.

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

PubMed

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

Dynamic analysis of Space Shuttle/RMS configuration using continuum approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramakrishnan, Jayant; Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.

1994-01-01

The initial assembly of Space Station Freedom involves the Space Shuttle, its Remote Manipulation System (RMS) and the evolving Space Station Freedom. The dynamics of this coupled system involves both the structural and the control system dynamics of each of these components. The modeling and analysis of such an assembly is made even more formidable by kinematic and joint nonlinearities. The current practice of modeling such flexible structures is to use finite element modeling in which the mass and interior dynamics is ignored between thousands of nodes, for each major component. The model characteristics of only tens of modes are kept out of thousands which are calculated. The components are then connected by approximating the boundary conditions and inserting the control system dynamics. In this paper continuum models are used instead of finite element models because of the improved accuracy, reduced number of model parameters, the avoidance of model order reduction, and the ability to represent the structural and control system dynamics in the same system of equations. Dynamic analysis of linear versions of the model is performed and compared with finite element model results. Additionally, the transfer matrix to continuum modeling is presented.

Evaluation of protein-protein docking model structures using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations combined with the solution theory in the energy representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemura, Kazuhiro; Guo, Hao; Sakuraba, Shun; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki; Kitao, Akio

2012-12-01

We propose a method to evaluate binding free energy differences among distinct protein-protein complex model structures through all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water using the solution theory in the energy representation. Complex model structures are generated from a pair of monomeric structures using the rigid-body docking program ZDOCK. After structure refinement by side chain optimization and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water, complex models are evaluated based on the sum of their conformational and solvation free energies, the latter calculated from the energy distribution functions obtained from relatively short molecular dynamics simulations of the complex in water and of pure water based on the solution theory in the energy representation. We examined protein-protein complex model structures of two protein-protein complex systems, bovine trypsin/CMTI-1 squash inhibitor (PDB ID: 1PPE) and RNase SA/barstar (PDB ID: 1AY7), for which both complex and monomer structures were determined experimentally. For each system, we calculated the energies for the crystal complex structure and twelve generated model structures including the model most similar to the crystal structure and very different from it. In both systems, the sum of the conformational and solvation free energies tended to be lower for the structure similar to the crystal. We concluded that our energy calculation method is useful for selecting low energy complex models similar to the crystal structure from among a set of generated models.

Evaluation of protein-protein docking model structures using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations combined with the solution theory in the energy representation.

PubMed

Takemura, Kazuhiro; Guo, Hao; Sakuraba, Shun; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki; Kitao, Akio

2012-12-07

We propose a method to evaluate binding free energy differences among distinct protein-protein complex model structures through all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water using the solution theory in the energy representation. Complex model structures are generated from a pair of monomeric structures using the rigid-body docking program ZDOCK. After structure refinement by side chain optimization and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water, complex models are evaluated based on the sum of their conformational and solvation free energies, the latter calculated from the energy distribution functions obtained from relatively short molecular dynamics simulations of the complex in water and of pure water based on the solution theory in the energy representation. We examined protein-protein complex model structures of two protein-protein complex systems, bovine trypsin/CMTI-1 squash inhibitor (PDB ID: 1PPE) and RNase SA/barstar (PDB ID: 1AY7), for which both complex and monomer structures were determined experimentally. For each system, we calculated the energies for the crystal complex structure and twelve generated model structures including the model most similar to the crystal structure and very different from it. In both systems, the sum of the conformational and solvation free energies tended to be lower for the structure similar to the crystal. We concluded that our energy calculation method is useful for selecting low energy complex models similar to the crystal structure from among a set of generated models.

A Neural Network Model of the Structure and Dynamics of Human Personality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Read, Stephen J.; Monroe, Brian M.; Brownstein, Aaron L.; Yang, Yu; Chopra, Gurveen; Miller, Lynn C.

2010-01-01

We present a neural network model that aims to bridge the historical gap between dynamic and structural approaches to personality. The model integrates work on the structure of the trait lexicon, the neurobiology of personality, temperament, goal-based models of personality, and an evolutionary analysis of motives. It is organized in terms of two…

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

French Polynesia Hotspot Swells Explained By Dynamic Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, C.; Yoshida, M.; Isse, T.; Suetsugu, D.; Shiobara, H.; Sugioka, H.; Kanazawa, T.; Fukao, Y.; Barruol, G.

2007-12-01

Situated on the South Pacific Superswell, French Polynesia is a region characterized by numerous geophysical anomalies among which a high volcanism concentration. Seven hotspots are required to explain the observed chains, volcanism ages and geochemical trends. Many open questions still remain on the origin of these hotspot chains: are they created by passive uplift of magma due to discontinuities in the structure of the lithosphere or by the ascent of mantle plumes? In this case, at which depth do these plumes initiate in the mantle? Many geophysical observations (bathymetry, gravity, magnetism, volcanism ages..) are used to understand the unique phenomenon occurring on this region. The most useful information may come from tomography models since they provide a 3D view of the mantle. Until recently, the tomography models over the region were quite inaccurate because of the sparse location of the seismic stations. The deployment of two new seismic stations networks (BBOBS and temporary island stations) has lately remedied this failing. The resulting tomography model obtained through the inversion of Rayleigh waves provides the most accurate view of the shallowest part of the mantle (depths ≤ 240 km) beneath French Polynesia. Indeed, for the first time the accuracy of a tomography model is good enough to provide information about plume phenomenology in this complex region. In order to quantify the plumes effect on the seafloor, we compute the dynamic topography through an instantaneous flow model. The general trend of the observed depths anomalies (highs and lows) is well recovered. For example the amplitude, location and extension of the swells associated with the Society, Macdonald and Rarotonga are accurately described by the dynamic model. We also find that dynamic uplift is associated with the Tuamotu archipelago which means that a part of the observed swell is due to the present day action of plumes. Since no volcanism ages are available over this chain, this new information may be quite important in understanding the archipelago origin. Another interesting result is that Arago, which is supposed to be an active hotspot along the Cook-Austral chain is situated on a bathymetric low which is well recovered by the dynamic model. Since this region is associated with downwelling flows, this makes us question its hotspot origin.

Salmonella Typhimurium and Staphylococcus aureus dynamics in/on variable (micro)structures of fish-based model systems at suboptimal temperatures.

PubMed

Baka, Maria; Verheyen, Davy; Cornette, Nicolas; Vercruyssen, Stijn; Van Impe, Jan F

2017-01-02

The limited knowledge concerning the influence of food (micro)structure on microbial dynamics decreases the accuracy of the developed predictive models, as most studies have mainly been based on experimental data obtained in liquid microbiological media or in/on real foods. The use of model systems has a great potential when studying this complex factor. Apart from the variability in (micro)structural properties, model systems vary in compositional aspects, as a consequence of their (micro)structural variation. In this study, different experimental food model systems, with compositional and physicochemical properties similar to fish patés, are developed to study the influence of food (micro)structure on microbial dynamics. The microbiological safety of fish products is of major importance given the numerous cases of salmonellosis and infections attributed to staphylococcus toxins. The model systems understudy represent food (micro)structures of liquids, aqueous gels, emulsions and gelled emulsions. The growth/inactivation dynamics and a modelling approach of combined growth and inactivation of Salmonella Typhimurium and Staphylococcus aureus, related to fish products, are investigated in/on these model systems at temperatures relevant to fish products' common storage (4°C) and to abuse storage temperatures (8 and 12°C). ComBase (http://www.combase.cc/) predictions compared with the maximum specific growth rate (μ max ) values estimated by the Baranyi and Roberts model in the current study indicated that the (micro)structure influences the microbial dynamics. Overall, ComBase overestimated microbial growth at the same pH, a w and storage temperature. Finally, the storage temperature had also an influence on how much each model system affected the microbial dynamics. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of an aged care nurse practitioner service: quality of care within a residential aged care facility hospital avoidance service.

PubMed

Dwyer, Trudy; Craswell, Alison; Rossi, Dolene; Holzberger, Darren

2017-01-13

Reducing avoidable hospitialisation of aged care facility (ACF) residents can improve the resident experience and their health outcomes. Consequently many variations of hospital avoidance (HA) programs continue to evolve. Nurse practitioners (NP) with expertise in aged care have the potential to make a unique contribution to hospital avoidance programs. However, little attention has been dedicated to service evaluation of this model and the quality of care provided. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the quality of an aged care NP model of care situated within a HA service in a regional area of Australia. Donabedian's structure, process and outcome framework was applied to evaluate the quality of the NP model of care. The Australian Nurse Practitioner Study standardised interview schedules for evaluating NP models of care guided the semi-structured interviews of nine health professionals (including ACF nurses, medical doctors and allied health professionals), four ACF residents and their families and two NPs. Theory driven coding consistent with the Donabedian framework guided analysis of interview data and presentation of findings. Structural dimensions identified included the 'in-reach' nature of the HA service, distance, limitations of professional regulation and the residential care model. These dimensions influenced the process of referring the resident to the NP, the NPs timely response and interactions with other professionals. The processes where the NPs take time connecting with residents, initiating collaborative care plans, up-skilling aged care staff and function as intra and interprofessional boundary spanners all contributed to quality outcomes. Quality outcomes in this study were about timely intervention, HA, timely return home, partnering with residents and family (knowing what they want) and resident and health professional satisfaction. This study provides valuable insights into the contribution of the NP model of care within an aged care, HA service and how staff manipulated the process dimensions to improve referral to the NPs. NP service in this study was dynamic, flexible and responsive to both patient and organisational demands.

Numerical evidences of universal trap-like aging dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarota, Chiara; Marinari, Enzo

2018-04-01

Trap models have been initially proposed as toy models for dynamical relaxation in extremely simplified rough potential energy landscapes. Their importance has recently grown considerably thanks to the discovery that the trap-like aging mechanism directly controls the out-of-equilibrium relaxation processes of more sophisticated spin models, that are considered as the solvable counterpart of real disordered systems. Further establishing the connection between these spin models, out-of-equilibrium behavior and the trap like aging mechanism could shed new light on the properties, which are still largely mysterious, for the activated out-of-equilibrium dynamics of disordered systems. In this work we discuss numerical evidence based on the computations of the permanence times of an emergent trap-like aging behavior in a variety of very simple disordered models—developed from the trap model paradigm. Our numerical results are backed by analytic derivations and heuristic discussions. Such exploration reveals some of the tricks needed to reveal the trap behavior in spite of the occurrence of secondary processes, of the existence of dynamical correlations and of strong finite system’s size effects.

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Influence of Land Cover Heterogeneity, Land-Use Change and Management on the Regional Carbon Cycle in the Upper Midwest USA as Evaluated by High-Density Observations and a Dynamic Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Bolstad, P. V.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Davis, K. J.

2005-12-01

The interplay between land use change, forest management and land cover variability complicates the ability to characterize regional scale (10-1000 km) exchange of carbon dioxide between the land surface and atmosphere in heterogeneous landscapes. An attempt was made to observe and model these factors and their influence on the regional carbon cycle across the upper Midwest USA. A high density of eddy-covariance carbon flux, micrometeorology, carbon dioxide mixing ratio, stand-scale biometry and canopy component flux observations have been occurring in this area as part of the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study. Observations limited to sampling only dominant stands and coarse-resolution biogeochemical models limited to biome-scale parameterization neither accurately capture the variability of carbon fluxes measured by the network of eddy covariance towers nor match the regional-scale carbon flux inferred from very tall tower eddy covariance measurements and multi-site upscaling. Analysis of plot level biometric data, U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory Analysis data and high-resolution land cover data around the tall tower revealed significant variations in vegetation type, stand age, canopy stocking and structure. Wetlands, clearcuts and recent natural disturbances occur in characteristic small non-uniformly distributed patches that aggregate to form more than 30% of the landscape. The Ecosystem Demography model, a dynamic ecosystem model that incorporates vegetation heterogeneity, canopy structure, stand age, disturbance, land use change and forest management, was parameterized with regional biometric data and meteorology, historical records of land management and high-resolution satellite land cover maps. The model will be used to examine the significance of past land use change, natural disturbance history and current forest management in explaining landscape structure and regional carbon fluxes observed in the region today.

Slowing dynamics in supercooled liquids and other soft materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yardimci, Hasan

The slow structural dynamics displayed by supercooled liquids and the transition to an out-of-equilibrium glass state that they engender are among the most challenging issues in condensed matter physics. This thesis reports experimental studies designed to elucidate central aspects of these slow dynamics and the nature of the glass state. The subjects of these studies include glass forming molecular liquids and other soft materials that have been advanced as model glassy systems such as clay suspensions and block copolymer micelle solutions. The main experimental techniques employed in these investigations have been dielectric susceptibility and neutron scattering. In the first half of this thesis, we report frequency-dependent dielectric susceptibility measurements characterizing the evolution in the dynamical properties, or aging, of two supercooled liquids, sorbitol and xylitol, quenched below their calorimetric glass transition temperatures, Tg. In addition to the alpha relaxation that tracks the structural dynamics, the susceptibilities of both liquids possess a secondary Johari-Goldstein relaxation at higher frequencies. Following a quench below Tg, the susceptibility slowly approaches equilibrium behavior. For both liquids features of the Johari-Goldstein relaxation display a dependence on the time since the quench, or aging time, that is very similar to the age dependence of the alpha peak. Implications of these findings for aging in glasses and the nature of Johari-Goldstein relaxation are discussed. Further investigation of the aging in sorbitol reveals that it displays memory strikingly similar to that of a variety of glassy materials, particularly spin glasses. During a temporary stop in cooling, the susceptibility changes with time due to aging. The memory is revealed upon reheating as the susceptibility retraces these changes. To investigate the out-of-equilibrium state of the liquid as it displays this memory, we have employed a set of intricate thermal histories by interrupting the heating stage of the cycle and characterizing the subsequent aging. At temperatures above that of the original cooling stop, the liquid enters a state on heating with an effective age that is proportional to the duration of the stop, while at lower temperatures no effective age can be assigned and subtler behavior emerges. These results, which reveal differences with memory displayed by spin glasses, are discussed in the context of the liquid's energy landscape. In the second half of the thesis, we report neutron scattering measurements and dielectric studies on a set of disordered soft materials. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

A Model Comparison for Characterizing Protein Motions from Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, Charles; Jacobs, Donald

2011-10-01

A comparative study is made using three computational models that characterize native state dynamics starting from known protein structures taken from four distinct SCOP classifications. A geometrical simulation is performed, and the results are compared to the elastic network model and molecular dynamics. The essential dynamics is quantified by a direct analysis of a mode subspace constructed from ANM and a principal component analysis on both the FRODA and MD trajectories using root mean square inner product and principal angles. Relative subspace sizes and overlaps are visualized using the projection of displacement vectors on the model modes. Additionally, a mode subspace is constructed from PCA on an exemplar set of X-ray crystal structures in order to determine similarly with respect to the generated ensembles. Quantitative analysis reveals there is significant overlap across the three model subspaces and the model independent subspace. These results indicate that structure is the key determinant for native state dynamics.

Model-Based Heterogeneous Data Fusion for Reliable Force Estimation in Dynamic Structures under Uncertainties

PubMed Central

Khodabandeloo, Babak; Melvin, Dyan; Jo, Hongki

2017-01-01

Direct measurements of external forces acting on a structure are infeasible in many cases. The Augmented Kalman Filter (AKF) has several attractive features that can be utilized to solve the inverse problem of identifying applied forces, as it requires the dynamic model and the measured responses of structure at only a few locations. But, the AKF intrinsically suffers from numerical instabilities when accelerations, which are the most common response measurements in structural dynamics, are the only measured responses. Although displacement measurements can be used to overcome the instability issue, the absolute displacement measurements are challenging and expensive for full-scale dynamic structures. In this paper, a reliable model-based data fusion approach to reconstruct dynamic forces applied to structures using heterogeneous structural measurements (i.e., strains and accelerations) in combination with AKF is investigated. The way of incorporating multi-sensor measurements in the AKF is formulated. Then the formulation is implemented and validated through numerical examples considering possible uncertainties in numerical modeling and sensor measurement. A planar truss example was chosen to clearly explain the formulation, while the method and formulation are applicable to other structures as well. PMID:29149088

Linking Structural Equation Modelling with Bayesian Network and Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in Bohai Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Jiangtao; Yang, Yue

2018-06-01

Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modelling and have become an increasingly popular modelling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modelling (SEM). In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models and increases the BN model's accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, despite the Redfield ratio indicating that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results indicate that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay.

Responding to rural social care needs: older people empowering themselves, others and their community.

PubMed

Walsh, Kieran; O'Shea, Eamon

2008-12-01

Older adult active retirement groups encompass health promotion, social and community psychological potential. However, little is known about the internal dynamics of these groups or their contribution to individual well-being and the community. This paper examines the Third Age Foundation as an example of one such group operating in a rural area in Ireland and explores the various relationships at work internally and externally. Methodology included: structured and semi-structured interviews, focus groups and a postal survey. A substantial contribution to members' well-being and community competence and cohesion was found. Findings are discussed in reference to the importance of individual and community empowerment, sustainability, social entrepreneurship/leadership and the potential of such models to support community-based living in older age.

A new modal-based approach for modelling the bump foil structure in the simultaneous solution of foil-air bearing rotor dynamic problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin Hassan, M. F.; Bonello, P.

2017-05-01

Recently-proposed techniques for the simultaneous solution of foil-air bearing (FAB) rotor dynamic problems have been limited to a simple bump foil model in which the individual bumps were modelled as independent spring-damper (ISD) subsystems. The present paper addresses this limitation by introducing a modal model of the bump foil structure into the simultaneous solution scheme. The dynamics of the corrugated bump foil structure are first studied using the finite element (FE) technique. This study is experimentally validated using a purpose-made corrugated foil structure. Based on the findings of this study, it is proposed that the dynamics of the full foil structure, including bump interaction and foil inertia, can be represented by a modal model comprising a limited number of modes. This full foil structure modal model (FFSMM) is then adapted into the rotordynamic FAB problem solution scheme, instead of the ISD model. Preliminary results using the FFSMM under static and unbalance excitation conditions are proven to be reliable by comparison against the corresponding ISD foil model results and by cross-correlating different methods for computing the deflection of the full foil structure. The rotor-bearing model is also validated against experimental and theoretical results in the literature.

MYStIX: Dynamical evolution of young clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, Michael A.

2014-08-01

The spatial structure of young stellar clusters in Galactic star-forming regions provides insight into these clusters’ dynamical evolution---a topic with implications for open questions in star-formation and cluster survival. The Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray (MYStIX) provides a sample of >30,000 young stars in star-forming regions (d<3.6 kpc) that contain at least one O-type star. We use the finite mixture model analysis to identify subclusters of stars and determine their properties: including subcluster radii, intrinsic numbers of stars, central density, ellipticity, obscuration, and age. In 17 MYStIX regions we find 142 subclusters, with a diverse radii and densities and age spreads of up to ~1 Myr in a region. There is a strong negative correlation between subcluster radius and density, which indicates that embedded subclusters expand but also gain stars as they age. Subcluster expansion is also shown by a positive radius--age correlation, which indicates that subclusters are expanding at <1 km/s. The subcluster ellipticity distribution and number--density relation show signs of a hierarchical merger scenario, whereby young stellar clusters are built up through mergers of smaller clumps, causing evolution from a clumpy spatial distribution of stars (seen in some regions) to a simpler distribution of stars (seen in other regions). Many of the simple young stellar clusters show signs of dynamically relaxation, even though they are not old enough for this to have occurred through two-body interactions. However, this apparent contradiction might be explained if small subcluster, which have shorter dynamical relaxation times, can produce dynamically relaxed clusters through hierarchical mergers.

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

Three-dimensional shear wave velocity structure in the Atlantic upper mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Esther Kezia Candace

Oceanic lithosphere constitutes the upper boundary layer of the Earth's convecting mantle. Its structure and evolution provide a vital window on the dynamics of the mantle and important clues to how the motions of Earth's surface plates are coupled to convection in the mantle below. The three-dimensional shear-velocity structure of the upper mantle beneath the Atlantic Ocean is investigated to gain insight into processes that drive formation of oceanic lithosphere. Travel times are measured for approximately 10,000 fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves, in the period range 30-130 seconds, traversing the Atlantic basin. Paths with >30% of their length through continental upper mantle are excluded to maximize sensitivity to the oceanic upper mantle. The lateral distribution of Rayleigh wave phase velocity in the Atlantic upper mantle is explored with two approaches. One, phase velocity is allowed to vary only as a function of seafloor age. Two, a general two-dimensional parameterization is utilized in order to capture perturbations to age-dependent structure. Phase velocity shows a strong dependence on seafloor age, and removing age-dependent velocity from the 2-D maps highlights areas of anomalously low velocity, almost all of which are proximal to locations of hotspot volcanism. Depth-dependent variations in vertically-polarized shear velocity (Vsv) are determined with two sets of 3-D models: a layered model that requires constant VSV in each depth layer, and a splined model that allows VSV to vary continuously with depth. At shallow depths (˜75 km) the seismic structure shows the expected dependence on seafloor age. At greater depths (˜200 km) high-velocity lithosphere is found only beneath the oldest seafloor; velocity variations beneath younger seafloor may result from temperature or compositional variations within the asthenosphere. The age-dependent phase velocities are used to constrain temperature in the mantle and show that, in contrast to previous results for the Pacific, phase velocities for the Atlantic are not consistent with a half-space cooling model but are best explained by a plate-cooling model with thickness of 75 km and mantle temperature of 1400°C. Comparison with data such as basalt chemistry and seafloor elevation helps to separate thermal and compositional effects on shear velocity.

Activated aging dynamics and effective trap model description in the random energy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baity-Jesi, M.; Biroli, G.; Cammarota, C.

2018-01-01

We study the out-of-equilibrium aging dynamics of the random energy model (REM) ruled by a single spin-flip Metropolis dynamics. We focus on the dynamical evolution taking place on time-scales diverging with the system size. Our aim is to show to what extent the activated dynamics displayed by the REM can be described in terms of an effective trap model. We identify two time regimes: the first one corresponds to the process of escaping from a basin in the energy landscape and to the subsequent exploration of high energy configurations, whereas the second one corresponds to the evolution from a deep basin to the other. By combining numerical simulations with analytical arguments we show why the trap model description does not hold in the former but becomes exact in the second.

Ground Reaction Forces Generated During Rhythmical Squats as a Dynamic Loads of the Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantak, Marek

2017-10-01

Dynamic forces generated by moving persons can lead to excessive vibration of the long span, slender and lightweight structure such as floors, stairs, stadium stands and footbridges. These dynamic forces are generated during walking, running, jumping and rhythmical body swaying in vertical or horizontal direction etc. In the paper the mathematical models of the Ground Reaction Forces (GRFs) generated during squats have been presented. Elaborated models was compared to the GRFs measured during laboratory tests carried out by author in wide range of frequency using force platform. Moreover, the GRFs models were evaluated during dynamic numerical analyses and dynamic field tests of the exemplary structure (steel footbridge).

Parameter and Structure Inference for Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Robin D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Millonas, Mark

2006-01-01

A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x = f(x) + xi(t), where f() is the potential function for the system, and xi is the excitation noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications.

Resource atlases for multi-atlas brain segmentations with multiple ontology levels based on T1-weighted MRI.

PubMed

Wu, Dan; Ma, Ting; Ceritoglu, Can; Li, Yue; Chotiyanonta, Jill; Hou, Zhipeng; Hsu, John; Xu, Xin; Brown, Timothy; Miller, Michael I; Mori, Susumu

2016-01-15

Technologies for multi-atlas brain segmentation of T1-weighted MRI images have rapidly progressed in recent years, with highly promising results. This approach, however, relies on a large number of atlases with accurate and consistent structural identifications. Here, we introduce our atlas inventories (n=90), which cover ages 4-82years with unique hierarchical structural definitions (286 structures at the finest level). This multi-atlas library resource provides the flexibility to choose appropriate atlases for various studies with different age ranges and structure-definition criteria. In this paper, we describe the details of the atlas resources and demonstrate the improved accuracy achievable with a dynamic age-matching approach, in which atlases that most closely match the subject's age are dynamically selected. The advanced atlas creation strategy, together with atlas pre-selection principles, is expected to support the further development of multi-atlas image segmentation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water age and stream solute dynamics at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (US)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, Gianluca; Benettin, Paolo; McGuire, Kevin; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-04-01

The contribution discusses experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (New Hampshire, USA) to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is used to model both conservative and weathering-derived solutes. Based on the available information about the hydrology of the site, an integrated transport model was developed and used to estimate the relevant hydrochemical fluxes. The model was designed to reproduce the deuterium content of streamflow and allowed for the estimate of catchment water storage and dynamic travel time distributions (TTDs). Within this framework, dissolved silicon and sodium concentration in streamflow were simulated by implementing first-order chemical kinetics based explicitly on dynamic TTD, thus upscaling local geochemical processes to catchment scale. Our results highlight the key role of water stored within the subsoil glacial material in both the short-term and long-term solute circulation at Hubbard Brook. The analysis of the results provided by the calibrated model allowed a robust estimate of the emerging concentration-discharge relationship, streamflow age distributions (including the fraction of event water) and storage size, and their evolution in time due to hydrologic variability.

Modelling fungal growth in heterogeneous soil: analyses of the effect of soil physical structure on fungal community dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falconer, R.; Radoslow, P.; Grinev, D.; Otten, W.

2009-04-01

Fungi play a pivital role in soil ecosystems contributing to plant productivity. The underlying soil physical and biological processes responsible for community dynamics are interrelated and, at present, poorly understood. If these complex processes can be understood then this knowledge can be managed with an aim to providing more sustainable agriculture. Our understanding of microbial dynamics in soil has long been hampered by a lack of a theoretical framework and difficulties in observation and quantification. We will demonstrate how the spatial and temporal dynamics of fungi in soil can be understood by linking mathematical modelling with novel techniques that visualise the complex structure of the soil. The combination of these techniques and mathematical models opens up new possibilities to understand how the physical structure of soil affects fungal colony dynamics and also how fungal dynamics affect soil structure. We will quantify, using X ray tomography, soil structure for a range of artificially prepared microcosms. We characterise the soil structures using soil metrics such as porosity, fractal dimension, and the connectivity of the pore volume. Furthermore we will use the individual based fungal colony growth model of Falconer et al. 2005, which is based on the physiological processes of fungi, to assess the effect of soil structure on microbial dynamics by qualifying biomass abundances and distributions. We demonstrate how soil structure can critically affect fungal species interactions with consequences for biological control and fungal biodiversity.

A continuum model for dynamic analysis of the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, Segun

1989-01-01

Dynamic analysis of the International Space Station using MSC/NASTRAN had 1312 rod elements, 62 beam elements, 489 nodes and 1473 dynamic degrees of freedom. A realtime, man-in-the-loop simulation of such a model is impractical. This paper discusses the mathematical model for realtime dynamic simulation of the Space Station. Several key questions in structures and structural dynamics are addressed. First, to achieve a significant reduction in the number of dynamic degrees of freedom, a continuum equivalent representation of the Space Station truss structure which accounted for the unsymmetry of the basic configuration and resulted in the coupling of extensional and transverse deformation, is developed. Next, dynamic equations for the continuum equivalent of the Space Station truss structure are formulated using a matrix version of Kane's dynamical equations. Flexibility is accounted for by using a theory that accommodates extension, bending in two principal planes and shear displacement. Finally, constraint equations suitable for dynamic analysis of flexible bodies with closed loop configuration are developed and solution of the resulting system of equations is based on the zero eigenvalue theorem.

Modelling and enhanced molecular dynamics to steer structure-based drug discovery.

PubMed

Kalyaanamoorthy, Subha; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe

2014-05-01

The ever-increasing gap between the availabilities of the genome sequences and the crystal structures of proteins remains one of the significant challenges to the modern drug discovery efforts. The knowledge of structure-dynamics-functionalities of proteins is important in order to understand several key aspects of structure-based drug discovery, such as drug-protein interactions, drug binding and unbinding mechanisms and protein-protein interactions. This review presents a brief overview on the different state of the art computational approaches that are applied for protein structure modelling and molecular dynamics simulations of biological systems. We give an essence of how different enhanced sampling molecular dynamics approaches, together with regular molecular dynamics methods, assist in steering the structure based drug discovery processes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Modeling the Dynamics of Soil Structure and Water in Agricultural Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, U.; Lang, B.; Rabot, E.; Stössel, B.; Urbanski, L.; Vogel, H. J.; Wiesmeier, M.; Wollschlaeger, U.

2017-12-01

The impact of agricultural management on soil functions is manifold and severe. It has both positive and adverse influence. Our goal is to develop model tools quantifying the agricultural impact on soil functions based on a mechanistic understanding of soil processes to support farmers and decision makers. The modeling approach is based on defining relevant soil components, i.e. soil matrix, macropores, organisms, roots and organic matter. They interact and form the soil's macroscopic properties and functions including water and gas dynamics, and biochemical cycles. Based on existing literature information we derive functional interaction processes and combine them in a network of dynamic soil components. In agricultural soils, a major issue is linked to changes in soil structure and their influence on water dynamics. Compaction processes are well studied in literature, but for the resilience due to root growth and activity of soil organisms the information is scarcer. We implement structural dynamics into soil water and gas simulations using a lumped model that is both coarse enough to allow extensive model runs while still preserving some important, yet rarely modeled phenomenons like preferential flow, hysteretic and dynamic behavior. For simulating water dynamics, at each depth, the model assumes water at different binding energies depending on soil structure, i.e. the pore size distribution. Non-equilibrium is postulated, meaning that free water may occur even if the soil is not fully saturated. All energy levels are interconnected allowing water to move, both within a spatial node, and between neighboring nodes (adding gravity). Structure dynamics alters the capacity of this water compartments, and the conductance of its connections. Connections are switched on and off depending on whether their sources contain water or their targets have free capacity. This leads to piecewise linear system behavior that allows fast calculation for extended time steps. Based on this concept, the dynamics of soil structure can be directly linked to soil water dynamics as a main driver for other soil processes. Further steps will include integration of temperature and solute leaching as well as defining the feedback of the water regime on the structure forming processes.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiscale regression modeling in mouse supraspinatus tendons reveals that dynamic processes act as mediators in structure-function relationships.

PubMed

Connizzo, Brianne K; Adams, Sheila M; Adams, Thomas H; Jawad, Abbas F; Birk, David E; Soslowsky, Louis J

2016-06-14

Recent advances in technology have allowed for the measurement of dynamic processes (re-alignment, crimp, deformation, sliding), but only a limited number of studies have investigated their relationship with mechanical properties. The overall objective of this study was to investigate the role of composition, structure, and the dynamic response to load in predicting tendon mechanical properties in a multi-level fashion mimicking native hierarchical collagen structure. Multiple linear regression models were investigated to determine the relationships between composition/structure, dynamic processes, and mechanical properties. Mediation was then used to determine if dynamic processes mediated structure-function relationships. Dynamic processes were strong predictors of mechanical properties. These predictions were location-dependent, with the insertion site utilizing all four dynamic responses and the midsubstance responding primarily with fibril deformation and sliding. In addition, dynamic processes were moderately predicted by composition and structure in a regionally-dependent manner. Finally, dynamic processes were partial mediators of the relationship between composition/structure and mechanical function, and results suggested that mediation is likely shared between multiple dynamic processes. In conclusion, the mechanical properties at the midsubstance of the tendon are controlled primarily by fibril structure and this region responds to load via fibril deformation and sliding. Conversely, the mechanical function at the insertion site is controlled by many other important parameters and the region responds to load via all four dynamic mechanisms. Overall, this study presents a strong foundation on which to design future experimental and modeling efforts in order to fully understand the complex structure-function relationships present in tendon. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

[Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

2014-11-01

Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

Application of partial differential equation modeling of the control/structural dynamics of flexible spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.; Rajiyah, H.

1991-01-01

Partial differential equations for modeling the structural dynamics and control systems of flexible spacecraft are applied here in order to facilitate systems analysis and optimization of these spacecraft. Example applications are given, including the structural dynamics of SCOLE, the Solar Array Flight Experiment, the Mini-MAST truss, and the LACE satellite. The development of related software is briefly addressed.

Toll-Like Receptor-9-Mediated Invasion in Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

Molecular Dynamics Simulations. Theoretical structural models were obtained from molecular dynamics simulations using explicit solvation by...with AMBER by MARDIGRAS. The solution structure was then derived by coupling the resulting NMR distance restraints with a molecular dynamic ...Overlay of NMR restrained structure (red) with theoretical molecular dynamic simulated annealing structure (blue). Energetic stability of the 9-mer

Resting-state functional connectivity emerges from structurally and dynamically shaped slow linear fluctuations.

PubMed

Deco, Gustavo; Ponce-Alvarez, Adrián; Mantini, Dante; Romani, Gian Luca; Hagmann, Patric; Corbetta, Maurizio

2013-07-03

Brain fluctuations at rest are not random but are structured in spatial patterns of correlated activity across different brain areas. The question of how resting-state functional connectivity (FC) emerges from the brain's anatomical connections has motivated several experimental and computational studies to understand structure-function relationships. However, the mechanistic origin of resting state is obscured by large-scale models' complexity, and a close structure-function relation is still an open problem. Thus, a realistic but simple enough description of relevant brain dynamics is needed. Here, we derived a dynamic mean field model that consistently summarizes the realistic dynamics of a detailed spiking and conductance-based synaptic large-scale network, in which connectivity is constrained by diffusion imaging data from human subjects. The dynamic mean field approximates the ensemble dynamics, whose temporal evolution is dominated by the longest time scale of the system. With this reduction, we demonstrated that FC emerges as structured linear fluctuations around a stable low firing activity state close to destabilization. Moreover, the model can be further and crucially simplified into a set of motion equations for statistical moments, providing a direct analytical link between anatomical structure, neural network dynamics, and FC. Our study suggests that FC arises from noise propagation and dynamical slowing down of fluctuations in an anatomically constrained dynamical system. Altogether, the reduction from spiking models to statistical moments presented here provides a new framework to explicitly understand the building up of FC through neuronal dynamics underpinned by anatomical connections and to drive hypotheses in task-evoked studies and for clinical applications.

Sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine for reconstructing complex networks with binary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2018-03-01

Revealing the structure and dynamics of complex networked systems from observed data is a problem of current interest. Is it possible to develop a completely data-driven framework to decipher the network structure and different types of dynamical processes on complex networks? We develop a model named sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine (SDBM) as a structural estimator for complex networks that host binary dynamical processes. The SDBM attains its topology according to that of the original system and is capable of simulating the original binary dynamical process. We develop a fully automated method based on compressive sensing and a clustering algorithm to construct the SDBM. We demonstrate, for a variety of representative dynamical processes on model and real world complex networks, that the equivalent SDBM can recover the network structure of the original system and simulates its dynamical behavior with high precision.

Sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine for reconstructing complex networks with binary dynamics.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2018-03-01

Revealing the structure and dynamics of complex networked systems from observed data is a problem of current interest. Is it possible to develop a completely data-driven framework to decipher the network structure and different types of dynamical processes on complex networks? We develop a model named sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine (SDBM) as a structural estimator for complex networks that host binary dynamical processes. The SDBM attains its topology according to that of the original system and is capable of simulating the original binary dynamical process. We develop a fully automated method based on compressive sensing and a clustering algorithm to construct the SDBM. We demonstrate, for a variety of representative dynamical processes on model and real world complex networks, that the equivalent SDBM can recover the network structure of the original system and simulates its dynamical behavior with high precision.

Effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue for a correlated random map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Roman R.; Cáceres, Manuel O.

2010-09-01

We investigate the evolution of random positive linear maps with various type of disorder by analytic perturbation and direct simulation. Our theoretical result indicates that the statistics of a random linear map can be successfully described for long time by the mean-value vector state. The growth rate can be characterized by an effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue that strongly depends on the type of correlation between the elements of the projection matrix. We apply this approach to an age-structured population dynamics model. We show that the asymptotic mean-value vector state characterizes the population growth rate when the age-structured model has random vital parameters. In this case our approach reveals the nontrivial dependence of the effective growth rate with cross correlations. The problem was reduced to the calculation of the smallest positive root of a secular polynomial, which can be obtained by perturbations in terms of Green’s function diagrammatic technique built with noncommutative cumulants for arbitrary n -point correlations.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Flight Dynamics of Flexible Aircraft with Aeroelastic and Inertial Force Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.; Tuzcu, Ilhan

2009-01-01

This paper presents an integrated flight dynamic modeling method for flexible aircraft that captures coupled physics effects due to inertial forces, aeroelasticity, and propulsive forces that are normally present in flight. The present approach formulates the coupled flight dynamics using a structural dynamic modeling method that describes the elasticity of a flexible, twisted, swept wing using an equivalent beam-rod model. The structural dynamic model allows for three types of wing elastic motion: flapwise bending, chordwise bending, and torsion. Inertial force coupling with the wing elasticity is formulated to account for aircraft acceleration. The structural deflections create an effective aeroelastic angle of attack that affects the rigid-body motion of flexible aircraft. The aeroelastic effect contributes to aerodynamic damping forces that can influence aerodynamic stability. For wing-mounted engines, wing flexibility can cause the propulsive forces and moments to couple with the wing elastic motion. The integrated flight dynamics for a flexible aircraft are formulated by including generalized coordinate variables associated with the aeroelastic-propulsive forces and moments in the standard state-space form for six degree-of-freedom flight dynamics. A computational structural model for a generic transport aircraft has been created. The eigenvalue analysis is performed to compute aeroelastic frequencies and aerodynamic damping. The results will be used to construct an integrated flight dynamic model of a flexible generic transport aircraft.

Effects of resource quality on the population dynamics of the Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella and its granulovirus.

PubMed

McVean, Ross I; Sait, Steve M; Thompson, David J; Begon, Mike

2002-03-01

Although the Plodia interpunctella-granulovirus system is one of the most studied models for insect-pathogen interactions, there are relatively few precise data on the dynamics of the virus in coexisting populations of these two organisms. Previous work has suggested that resource quality, in terms of the diet supplied to P. interpunctella, has a strong effect on the population dynamics of host and pathogen. Here we investigate the impact of resource-dependent host patterns of abundance on pathogen dynamics and prevalence. In the laboratory, three populations of P. interpunctella feeding on a good quality food and infected with a granulovirus were compared with three populations also infected with a granulovirus but feeding on poor quality food. Populations feeding on good quality food produced larger adult moths, and had greater numbers of adult moths, healthy larvae, and virus-infected larvae. A higher proportion of larvae in these good quality populations were infected with virus, and adult moths exhibited cyclic fluctuations in abundance, unlike those on poor quality food. This cyclic behaviour was shown to be associated with cycles in the age structure of the larval population. Previous theoretical work suggests that these cycles may result from asymmetric competition between young and old larvae. Cyclic fluctuations in the proportion of infected larvae, that occurred on good, but not on poor quality food, were also shown to be related to cycles in the age structure of the larval population.

Consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a smallmouth bass population: An individual-based modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Q.; DeAngelis, D.L.

1998-01-01

We used an individual-based modeling approach to study the consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a freshwater fish population. We simulated the daily foraging, growth, and survival of the age-0 fish and older juvenile individuals of a sample population to reconstruct patterns of density dependence in the age-0 fish during the growth season. Cannibalism occurs as a part of the foraging process. For age-0 fish, older juvenile fish are both potential cannibals and competitors of food. We found that competition and cannibalism produced intraclass and interclass density dependence. Our modeling results suggested the following. (1) With low density of juvenile fish and weak interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Beverton-Holt type of density dependence. (2) With high density of juvenile fish and strong interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Ricker type of density dependence, and overcompensation occurs. (3) Interclass competition of food is responsible for much of the overcompensation. (4) Cannibalism intensifies the changes in the recruitment that are brought about by competition. Cannibalism can (a) generally reduce the recruitment, (b) particularly reduce the maximum level of recruitment, (c) cause overcompensation to occur at lower densities, and (d) produce a stronger overcompensation. (5) Growth is also a function of density. Cannibalism generally improves average growth of cannibals. (6) Variation in the lengths of age-0 fish increases with density and with a decreased average growth. These results imply that cannibalism and competition for food could strongly affect recruitment dynamics. Our model also showed that the rate of cannibalism either could be fairly even through the whole season or could vary dramatically. The individual-based modeling approach can help ecologists understand the mechanistic connection between daily behavioral and physiological processes operating at the level of individual organisms and seasonal patterns of population structure and dynamics. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 1998.

Creating a Test Validated Structural Dynamic Finite Element Model of the Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-Gi; Truong, Samson S.

2014-01-01

Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test Bed, X-56A, aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of X-56A. The ground vibration test validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A is improved using a model tuning tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of the X-56A have been improved in a single optimization run.

Evaluating predisposition and training in shaping the musician's brain: the need for a developmental perspective.

PubMed

Zuk, Jennifer; Gaab, Nadine

2018-05-24

The study of music training as a model for structural plasticity has evolved significantly over the past 15 years. Neuroimaging studies have identified characteristic structural brain alterations in musicians compared to nonmusicians in school-age children and adults, using primarily cross-sectional designs. Despite this emerging evidence and advances in pediatric neuroimaging techniques, hardly any studies have examined brain development in early childhood (before age 8) in association with musical training, and longitudinal studies starting in infancy or preschool are particularly scarce. Consequently, it remains unclear whether the characteristic "musician brain" is solely the result of musical training, or whether certain predispositions may have an impact on its development. Moving toward a developmental perspective, the present review considers various factors that may contribute to early brain structure prior to the onset of formal musical training. This review introduces a model for potential neurobiological pathways leading to the characteristic "musician brain," which involves a developmental interaction between predisposition and its temporal dynamics, environmental experience, and training-induced plasticity. This perspective illuminates the importance of studying the brain structure associated with musical training through a developmental lens, and the need for longitudinal studies in early childhood to advance our understanding of music training-induced structural plasticity. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-07-01

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

Bayesian dynamic regression models for interval censored survival data with application to children dental health.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaojing; Chen, Ming-Hui; Yan, Jun

2013-07-01

Cox models with time-varying coefficients offer great flexibility in capturing the temporal dynamics of covariate effects on event times, which could be hidden from a Cox proportional hazards model. Methodology development for varying coefficient Cox models, however, has been largely limited to right censored data; only limited work on interval censored data has been done. In most existing methods for varying coefficient models, analysts need to specify which covariate coefficients are time-varying and which are not at the time of fitting. We propose a dynamic Cox regression model for interval censored data in a Bayesian framework, where the coefficient curves are piecewise constant but the number of pieces and the jump points are covariate specific and estimated from the data. The model automatically determines the extent to which the temporal dynamics is needed for each covariate, resulting in smoother and more stable curve estimates. The posterior computation is carried out via an efficient reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Inference of each coefficient is based on an average of models with different number of pieces and jump points. A simulation study with three covariates, each with a coefficient of different degree in temporal dynamics, confirmed that the dynamic model is preferred to the existing time-varying model in terms of model comparison criteria through conditional predictive ordinate. When applied to a dental health data of children with age between 7 and 12 years, the dynamic model reveals that the relative risk of emergence of permanent tooth 24 between children with and without an infected primary predecessor is the highest at around age 7.5, and that it gradually reduces to one after age 11. These findings were not seen from the existing studies with Cox proportional hazards models.

Epidemic spreading model to characterize misfolded proteins propagation in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders.

PubMed

Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Sotero, Roberto C; Toussaint, Paule J; Evans, Alan C

2014-11-01

Misfolded proteins (MP) are a key component in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders. For example, misfolded Amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau proteins are two neuropathogenic hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease. Mechanisms underlying intra-brain MP propagation/deposition remain essentially uncharacterized. Here, is introduced an epidemic spreading model (ESM) for MP dynamics that considers propagation-like interactions between MP agents and the brain's clearance response across the structural connectome. The ESM reproduces advanced Aß deposition patterns in the human brain (explaining 46∼56% of the variance in regional Aß loads, in 733 subjects from the ADNI database). Furthermore, this model strongly supports a) the leading role of Aß clearance deficiency and early Aß onset age during Alzheimer's disease progression, b) that effective anatomical distance from Aß outbreak region explains regional Aß arrival time and Aß deposition likelihood, c) the multi-factorial impact of APOE e4 genotype, gender and educational level on lifetime intra-brain Aß propagation, and d) the modulatory impact of Aß propagation history on tau proteins concentrations, supporting the hypothesis of an interrelated pathway between Aß pathophysiology and tauopathy. To our knowledge, the ESM is the first computational model highlighting the direct link between structural brain networks, production/clearance of pathogenic proteins and associated intercellular transfer mechanisms, individual genetic/demographic properties and clinical states in health and disease. In sum, the proposed ESM constitutes a promising framework to clarify intra-brain region to region transference mechanisms associated with aging and neurodegenerative disorders.

Epidemic Spreading Model to Characterize Misfolded Proteins Propagation in Aging and Associated Neurodegenerative Disorders

PubMed Central

Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Sotero, Roberto C.; Toussaint, Paule J.; Evans, Alan C.

2014-01-01

Misfolded proteins (MP) are a key component in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders. For example, misfolded Amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau proteins are two neuropathogenic hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease. Mechanisms underlying intra-brain MP propagation/deposition remain essentially uncharacterized. Here, is introduced an epidemic spreading model (ESM) for MP dynamics that considers propagation-like interactions between MP agents and the brain's clearance response across the structural connectome. The ESM reproduces advanced Aß deposition patterns in the human brain (explaining 46∼56% of the variance in regional Aß loads, in 733 subjects from the ADNI database). Furthermore, this model strongly supports a) the leading role of Aß clearance deficiency and early Aß onset age during Alzheimer's disease progression, b) that effective anatomical distance from Aß outbreak region explains regional Aß arrival time and Aß deposition likelihood, c) the multi-factorial impact of APOE e4 genotype, gender and educational level on lifetime intra-brain Aß propagation, and d) the modulatory impact of Aß propagation history on tau proteins concentrations, supporting the hypothesis of an interrelated pathway between Aß pathophysiology and tauopathy. To our knowledge, the ESM is the first computational model highlighting the direct link between structural brain networks, production/clearance of pathogenic proteins and associated intercellular transfer mechanisms, individual genetic/demographic properties and clinical states in health and disease. In sum, the proposed ESM constitutes a promising framework to clarify intra-brain region to region transference mechanisms associated with aging and neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25412207

Analysis of structural dynamic data from Skylab. Volume 1: Technical discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demchak, L.; Harcrow, H.

1976-01-01

A compendium of Skylab structural dynamics analytical and test programs is presented. These programs are assessed to identify lessons learned from the structural dynamic prediction effort and to provide guidelines for future analysts and program managers of complex spacecraft systems. It is a synopsis of the structural dynamic effort performed under the Skylab Integration contract and specifically covers the development, utilization, and correlation of Skylab Dynamic Orbital Models.

A Few Integrable Dynamical Systems, Recurrence Operators, Expanding Integrable Models and Hamiltonian Structures by the r-Matrix Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu-Feng; Muhammad, Iqbal; Yue, Chao

2017-10-01

We extend two known dynamical systems obtained by Blaszak, et al. via choosing Casimir functions and utilizing Novikov-Lax equation so that a series of novel dynamical systems including generalized Burgers dynamical system, heat equation, and so on, are followed to be generated. Then we expand some differential operators presented in the paper to deduce two types of expanding dynamical models. By taking the generalized Burgers dynamical system as an example, we deform its expanding model to get a half-expanding system, whose recurrence operator is derived from Lax representation, and its Hamiltonian structure is also obtained by adopting a new way. Finally, we expand the generalized Burgers dynamical system to the (2+1)-dimensional case whose Hamiltonian structure is derived by Poisson tensor and gradient of the Casimir function. Besides, a kind of (2+1)-dimensional expanding dynamical model of the (2+1)-dimensional dynamical system is generated as well. Supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University under Grant No. 2017XKZD11

Interplay between Shear Loading and Structural Aging in a Physical Gelatin Gel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronsin, O.; Caroli, C.; Baumberger, T.

2009-09-25

We show that the aging of the mechanical relaxation of a gelatin gel exhibits the same scaling phenomenology as polymer and colloidal glasses. In addition, gelatin is known to exhibit logarithmic structural aging (stiffening). We find that stress accelerates this process. However, this effect is definitely irreducible to a mere age shift with respect to natural aging. We suggest that it is interpretable in terms of elastically aided elementary (coil->helix) local events whose dynamics gradually slows down as aging increases geometric frustration.

Age-structured gametocyte allocation links immunity to epidemiology in malaria parasites.

PubMed

Paul, Richard E; Bonnet, Sarah; Boudin, Christian; Tchuinkam, Timoleon; Robert, Vincent

2007-09-12

Despite a long history of attempts to model malaria epidemiology, the over-riding conclusion is that a detailed understanding of host-parasite interactions leading to immunity is required. It is still not known what governs the duration of an infection and how within-human parasite dynamics relate to malaria epidemiology. Immunity to Plasmodium falciparum develops slowly and requires repeated exposure to the parasite, which thus generates age-structure in the host-parasite interaction. An age-structured degree of immunity would present the parasite with humans of highly variable quality. Evolutionary theory suggests that natural selection will mould adaptive phenotypes that are more precise (less variant) in "high quality" habitats, where lifetime reproductive success is best. Variability in malaria parasite gametocyte density is predicted to be less variable in those age groups who best infect mosquitoes. Thus, the extent to which variation in gametocyte density is a simple parasite phenotype reflecting the complex within-host parasite dynamics is addressed. Gametocyte densities and corresponding infectiousness to mosquitoes from published data sets and studies in both rural and urban Cameroon are analysed. The mean and variation in gametocyte density according to age group are considered and compared with transmission success (proportion of mosquitoes infected). Across a wide range of settings endemic for malaria, the age group that infected most mosquitoes had the least variation in gametocyte density, i.e. there was a significant relationship between the variance rather than the mean gametocyte density and age-specific parasite transmission success. In these settings, the acquisition of immunity over time was evident as a decrease in asexual parasite densities with age. By contrast, in an urban setting, there were no such age-structured relationships either with variation in gametocyte density or asexual parasite density. Gametocyte production is seemingly predicted by evolutionary theory, insofar as a reproductive phenotype (gametocyte density) is most precisely expressed (i.e. is most invariant) in the most infectious human age group. This human age group would thus be expected to be the habitat most suitable for the parasite. Comprehension of the immuno-epidemiology of malaria, a requisite for any vaccine strategies, remains poor. Immunological characterization of the human population stratified by parasite gametocyte allocation would be a step forward in identifying the salient immunological pathways of what makes a human a good habitat.

Study on model design and dynamic similitude relations of vibro-acoustic experiment for elastic cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ao; Lu, Bo; Yang, Dangguo; Wang, Xiansheng; Wu, Junqiang; Zhou, Fangqi

2018-05-01

Coupling between aero-acoustic noise and structural vibration under high-speed open cavity flow-induced oscillation may bring about severe random vibration of the structure, and even cause structure to fatigue destruction, which threatens the flight safety. Carrying out the research on vibro-acoustic experiments of scaled down model is an effective means to clarify the effects of high-intensity noise of cavity on structural vibration. Therefore, in allusion to the vibro-acoustic experiments of cavity in wind tunnel, taking typical elastic cavity as the research object, dimensional analysis and finite element method were adopted to establish the similitude relations of structural inherent characteristics and dynamics for distorted model, and verifying the proposed similitude relations by means of experiments and numerical simulation. Research shows that, according to the analysis of scale-down model, the established similitude relations can accurately simulate the structural dynamic characteristics of actual model, which provides theoretic guidance for structural design and vibro-acoustic experiments of scaled down elastic cavity model.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Detection of internal cracks in rubber composite structures using an impact acoustic modality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Q.; Kurfess, T. R.; Omar, M.; Gramling, F.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the use of impact acoustic signals to non-intrusively inspect rubber composite structures for the presence of internal cracks, such as those found in an automobile tyre. Theoretical contact dynamic models for both integral and defective rubber structures are developed based on Hertz's impact model, further modified for rubber composite materials. The model generates the prediction of major impact dynamic quantities, namely the maximum impact force, impact duration and contact deformation; such parameters are also theoretically proven to be correlated with the presence of internal cracks. The tyre structures are simplified into cubic rubber blocks, to mitigate complexity for analytical modelling. Both impact force and impact sound signals are measured experimentally, and extraction of useful features from both signals for defect identification is achieved. The impact force produces two direct measurements of theoretical impact dynamic quantities. A good correlation between these experimental discriminators and the theoretical dynamic quantities provide validation for the contact dynamics models. Defect discriminators extracted from the impact sound are dependent on both time- and frequency-domain analyses. All the discriminators are closely connected with the theoretical dynamic quantities and experimentally verified as good indicators of internal cracks in rubber composite structures.

Structural versus dynamical origins of mean-field behavior in a self-organized critical model of neuronal avalanches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moosavi, S. Amin; Montakhab, Afshin

2015-11-01

Critical dynamics of cortical neurons have been intensively studied over the past decade. Neuronal avalanches provide the main experimental as well as theoretical tools to consider criticality in such systems. Experimental studies show that critical neuronal avalanches show mean-field behavior. There are structural as well as recently proposed [Phys. Rev. E 89, 052139 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevE.89.052139] dynamical mechanisms that can lead to mean-field behavior. In this work we consider a simple model of neuronal dynamics based on threshold self-organized critical models with synaptic noise. We investigate the role of high-average connectivity, random long-range connections, as well as synaptic noise in achieving mean-field behavior. We employ finite-size scaling in order to extract critical exponents with good accuracy. We conclude that relevant structural mechanisms responsible for mean-field behavior cannot be justified in realistic models of the cortex. However, strong dynamical noise, which can have realistic justifications, always leads to mean-field behavior regardless of the underlying structure. Our work provides a different (dynamical) origin than the conventionally accepted (structural) mechanisms for mean-field behavior in neuronal avalanches.

Protein folding, protein structure and the origin of life: Theoretical methods and solutions of dynamical problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weaver, D. L.

1982-01-01

Theoretical methods and solutions of the dynamics of protein folding, protein aggregation, protein structure, and the origin of life are discussed. The elements of a dynamic model representing the initial stages of protein folding are presented. The calculation and experimental determination of the model parameters are discussed. The use of computer simulation for modeling protein folding is considered.

Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory

PubMed Central

Crucifix, Michel

2012-01-01

Ice sheets appeared in the northern hemisphere around 3 Ma (million years) ago and glacial–interglacial cycles have paced Earth's climate since then. Superimposed on these long glacial cycles comes an intricate pattern of millennial and sub-millennial variability, including Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events. There are numerous theories about these oscillations. Here, we review a number of them in order to draw a parallel between climatic concepts and dynamical system concepts, including, in particular, the relaxation oscillator, excitability, slow–fast dynamics and homoclinic orbits. Namely, almost all theories of ice ages reviewed here feature a phenomenon of synchronization between internal climate dynamics and astronomical forcing. However, these theories differ in their bifurcation structure and this has an effect on the way the ice age phenomenon could grow 3 Ma ago. All theories on rapid events reviewed here rely on the concept of a limit cycle excited by changes in the surface freshwater balance of the ocean. The article also reviews basic effects of stochastic fluctuations on these models, including the phenomenon of phase dispersion, shortening of the limit cycle and stochastic resonance. It concludes with a more personal statement about the potential for inference with simple stochastic dynamical systems in palaeoclimate science. PMID:22291227

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

PubMed

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Dynamic and fluid-structure interaction simulations of bioprosthetic heart valves using parametric design with T-splines and Fung-type material models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Ming-Chen; Kamensky, David; Xu, Fei; Kiendl, Josef; Wang, Chenglong; Wu, Michael C. H.; Mineroff, Joshua; Reali, Alessandro; Bazilevs, Yuri; Sacks, Michael S.

2015-06-01

This paper builds on a recently developed immersogeometric fluid-structure interaction (FSI) methodology for bioprosthetic heart valve (BHV) modeling and simulation. It enhances the proposed framework in the areas of geometry design and constitutive modeling. With these enhancements, BHV FSI simulations may be performed with greater levels of automation, robustness and physical realism. In addition, the paper presents a comparison between FSI analysis and standalone structural dynamics simulation driven by prescribed transvalvular pressure, the latter being a more common modeling choice for this class of problems. The FSI computation achieved better physiological realism in predicting the valve leaflet deformation than its standalone structural dynamics counterpart.

Linking water age and solute dynamics in streamflow at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, USA

Treesearch

Paolo Benettin; Scott W. Bailey; John L. Campbell; Mark B. Green; Andrea Rinaldo; Gene E. Likens; Kevin J. McGuire; Gianluca Botter

2015-01-01

We combine experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA, to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is here applied to...

Model structure identification for wastewater treatment simulation based on computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Alex, J; Kolisch, G; Krause, K

2002-01-01

The objective of this presented project is to use the results of an CFD simulation to automatically, systematically and reliably generate an appropriate model structure for simulation of the biological processes using CSTR activated sludge compartments. Models and dynamic simulation have become important tools for research but also increasingly for the design and optimisation of wastewater treatment plants. Besides the biological models several cases are reported about the application of computational fluid dynamics ICFD) to wastewater treatment plants. One aim of the presented method to derive model structures from CFD results is to exclude the influence of empirical structure selection to the result of dynamic simulations studies of WWTPs. The second application of the approach developed is the analysis of badly performing treatment plants where the suspicion arises that bad flow behaviour such as short cut flows is part of the problem. The method suggested requires as the first step the calculation of fluid dynamics of the biological treatment step at different loading situations by use of 3-dimensional CFD simulation. The result of this information is used to generate a suitable model structure for conventional dynamic simulation of the treatment plant by use of a number of CSTR modules with a pattern of exchange flows between the tanks automatically. The method is explained in detail and the application to the WWTP Wuppertal Buchenhofen is presented.

Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Pradel, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

2003-01-01

Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate capture-recapture models for the simultaneous estimation of natal dispersal, breeding dispersal, and age-dependent recruitment. These models are suitable for populations in which individuals are marked at birth and then recaptured over several sites. Under simple constraints, they can be used in populations where non-breeders are not observed, as is often the case with colonial waterbirds monitored on their breeding grounds. Biological questions can be addressed by comparing models differing in structure, according to the generalized linear model philosophy broadly used in capture-recapture methodology. We illustrate the potential of this approach by an analysis of recruitment and dispersal in the roseate tern Sterna dougallii.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The use of stored carbon reserves in growth of temperate tree roots and leaf buds: Analyses using radiocarbon measurements and modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaudinski, J.B.; Torn, M.S.; Riley, W.J.

2009-02-01

Characterizing the use of carbon (C) reserves in trees is important for understanding regional and global C cycles, stress responses, asynchrony between photosynthetic activity and growth demand, and isotopic exchanges in studies of tree physiology and ecosystem C cycling. Using an inadvertent, whole-ecosystem radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) release in a temperate deciduous oak forest and numerical modeling, we estimated that the mean age of stored C used to grow both leaf buds and new roots is 0.7 years and about 55% of new-root growth annually comes from stored C. Therefore, the calculated mean age of C used to grow new-root tissuemore » is {approx}0.4 years. In short, new roots contain a lot of stored C but it is young in age. Additionally, the type of structure used to model stored C input is important. Model structures that did not include storage, or that assumed stored and new C mixed well (within root or shoot tissues) before being used for root growth, did not fit the data nearly as well as when a distinct storage pool was used. Consistent with these whole-ecosystem labeling results, the mean age of C in new-root tissues determined using 'bomb-{sup 14}C' in three additional forest sites in North America and Europe (one deciduous, two coniferous) was less than 1-2 years. The effect of stored reserves on estimated ages of fine roots is unlikely to be large in most natural abundance isotope studies. However, models of root C dynamics should take stored reserves into account, particularly for pulse-labeling studies and fast-cycling roots (<1 years).« less

Modeling, Analysis, and Optimization Issues for Large Space Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinson, L. D. (Compiler); Amos, A. K. (Compiler); Venkayya, V. B. (Compiler)

1983-01-01

Topics concerning the modeling, analysis, and optimization of large space structures are discussed including structure-control interaction, structural and structural dynamics modeling, thermal analysis, testing, and design.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Coherent dynamic structure factors of strongly coupled plasmas: A generalized hydrodynamic approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Di; Hu, GuangYue; Gong, Tao

2016-05-15

A generalized hydrodynamic fluctuation model is proposed to simplify the calculation of the dynamic structure factor S(ω, k) of non-ideal plasmas using the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. In this model, the kinetic and correlation effects are both included in hydrodynamic coefficients, which are considered as functions of the coupling strength (Γ) and collision parameter (kλ{sub ei}), where λ{sub ei} is the electron-ion mean free path. A particle-particle particle-mesh molecular dynamics simulation code is also developed to simulate the dynamic structure factors, which are used to benchmark the calculation of our model. A good agreement between the two different approaches confirms the reliabilitymore » of our model.« less

Finite Element Model Development For Aircraft Fuselage Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehrle, Ralph D.; Fleming, Gary A.; Pappa, Richard S.; Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

2000-01-01

The ability to extend the valid frequency range for finite element based structural dynamic predictions using detailed models of the structural components and attachment interfaces is examined for several stiffened aircraft fuselage structures. This extended dynamic prediction capability is needed for the integration of mid-frequency noise control technology. Beam, plate and solid element models of the stiffener components are evaluated. Attachment models between the stiffener and panel skin range from a line along the rivets of the physical structure to a constraint over the entire contact surface. The finite element models are validated using experimental modal analysis results.

Active influence in dynamical models of structural balance in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Tyler H.; Shames, Iman

2013-07-01

We consider a nonlinear dynamical system on a signed graph, which can be interpreted as a mathematical model of social networks in which the links can have both positive and negative connotations. In accordance with a concept from social psychology called structural balance, the negative links play a key role in both the structure and dynamics of the network. Recent research has shown that in a nonlinear dynamical system modeling the time evolution of “friendliness levels” in the network, two opposing factions emerge from almost any initial condition. Here we study active external influence in this dynamical model and show that any agent in the network can achieve any desired structurally balanced state from any initial condition by perturbing its own local friendliness levels. Based on this result, we also introduce a new network centrality measure for signed networks. The results are illustrated in an international-relations network using United Nations voting record data from 1946 to 2008 to estimate friendliness levels amongst various countries.

Dynamics of two-strain influenza model with cross-immunity and no quarantine class.

PubMed

Chung, K W; Lui, Roger

2016-12-01

The question about whether a periodic solution can exists for a given epidemiological model is a complicated one and has a long history (Hethcote and Levin, Applied math. ecology, biomathematics, vol 18. Springer, Berlin, pp 193-211, 1989). For influenza models, it is well known that a periodic solution can exists for a single-strain model with periodic contact rate (Aron and Schwartz, J Math Biol 110:665-679, 1984; Kuznetsov and Piccardi, J Math Biol 32:109-121, 1994), or a multiple-strain model with cross-immunity and quarantine class or age-structure (Nuño et al., Mathematical epidemiology. Lecture notes in mathematics, vol 1945. Springer, Berlin, 2008, chapter 13). In this paper, we prove the local asymptotic stability of the interior steady-state of a two-strain influenza model with sufficiently close cross-immunity and no quarantine class or age-structure. We also show that if the cross-immunity between two strains are far apart; then it is possible for the interior steady-state to lose its stability and bifurcation of periodic solutions can occur. Our results extend those obtained by Nuño et.al. (SIAM J Appl Math 65:964-982, 2005). This problem is important because understanding the reasons behind periodic outbreaks of seasonal flu is an important issue in public health.

Facial dynamics and emotional expressions in facial aging treatments.

PubMed

Michaud, Thierry; Gassia, Véronique; Belhaouari, Lakhdar

2015-03-01

Facial expressions convey emotions that form the foundation of interpersonal relationships, and many of these emotions promote and regulate our social linkages. Hence, the facial aging symptomatological analysis and the treatment plan must of necessity include knowledge of the facial dynamics and the emotional expressions of the face. This approach aims to more closely meet patients' expectations of natural-looking results, by correcting age-related negative expressions while observing the emotional language of the face. This article will successively describe patients' expectations, the role of facial expressions in relational dynamics, the relationship between facial structures and facial expressions, and the way facial aging mimics negative expressions. Eventually, therapeutic implications for facial aging treatment will be addressed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic analysis of space structures including elastic, multibody, and control behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinson, Larry; Soosaar, Keto

1989-01-01

The problem is to develop analysis methods, modeling stategies, and simulation tools to predict with assurance the on-orbit performance and integrity of large complex space structures that cannot be verified on the ground. The problem must incorporate large reliable structural models, multi-body flexible dynamics, multi-tier controller interaction, environmental models including 1g and atmosphere, various on-board disturbances, and linkage to mission-level performance codes. All areas are in serious need of work, but the weakest link is multi-body flexible dynamics.

Analysis of structural dynamic data from Skylab. Volume 1: Technical discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demchak, L.; Harcrow, H.

1976-01-01

The results of a study to analyze data and document dynamic program highlights of the Skylab Program are presented. Included are structural model sources, illustration of the analytical models, utilization of models and the resultant derived data, data supplied to organization and subsequent utilization, and specifications of model cycles.

Modelling dynamics in protein crystal structures by ensemble refinement

PubMed Central

Burnley, B Tom; Afonine, Pavel V; Adams, Paul D; Gros, Piet

2012-01-01

Single-structure models derived from X-ray data do not adequately account for the inherent, functionally important dynamics of protein molecules. We generated ensembles of structures by time-averaged refinement, where local molecular vibrations were sampled by molecular-dynamics (MD) simulation whilst global disorder was partitioned into an underlying overall translation–libration–screw (TLS) model. Modeling of 20 protein datasets at 1.1–3.1 Å resolution reduced cross-validated Rfree values by 0.3–4.9%, indicating that ensemble models fit the X-ray data better than single structures. The ensembles revealed that, while most proteins display a well-ordered core, some proteins exhibit a ‘molten core’ likely supporting functionally important dynamics in ligand binding, enzyme activity and protomer assembly. Order–disorder changes in HIV protease indicate a mechanism of entropy compensation for ordering the catalytic residues upon ligand binding by disordering specific core residues. Thus, ensemble refinement extracts dynamical details from the X-ray data that allow a more comprehensive understanding of structure–dynamics–function relationships. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00311.001 PMID:23251785

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress—Insights from a System Dynamics—Individual-Based Hybrid Model

PubMed Central

Vincenot, Christian E.; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)—Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed. PMID:27252707

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rong, Libin; Guedj, Jeremie; Dahari, Harel

The current paradigm for studying hepatitis C virus (HCV) dynamics in patients utilizes a standard viral dynamic model that keeps track of uninfected (target) cells, infected cells, and virus. The model does not account for the dynamics of intracellular viral replication, which is the major target of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). In this paper, we describe and study a recently developed multiscale age-structured model that explicitly considers the potential effects of DAAs on intracellular viral RNA production, degradation, and secretion as virus into the circulation. We show that when therapy significantly blocks both intracellular viral RNA production and virus secretion,more » the serum viral load decline has three phases, with slopes reflecting the rate of serum viral clearance, the rate of loss of intracellular viral RNA, and the rate of loss of intracellular replication templates and infected cells, respectively. We also derive analytical approximations of the multiscale model and use one of them to analyze data from patients treated for 14 days with the HCV protease inhibitor danoprevir. Analysis suggests that danoprevir significantly blocks intracellular viral production (with mean effectiveness 99.2%), enhances intracellular viral RNA degradation about 5-fold, and moderately inhibits viral secretion (with mean effectiveness 56%). Finally, the multiscale model can be used to study viral dynamics in patients treated with other DAAs and explore their mechanisms of action in treatment of hepatitis C.« less

Development of structural health monitoring techniques using dynamics testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James, G.H. III

Today`s society depends upon many structures (such as aircraft, bridges, wind turbines, offshore platforms, buildings, and nuclear weapons) which are nearing the end of their design lifetime. Since these structures cannot be economically replaced, techniques for structural health monitoring must be developed and implemented. Modal and structural dynamics measurements hold promise for the global non-destructive inspection of a variety of structures since surface measurements of a vibrating structure can provide information about the health of the internal members without costly (or impossible) dismantling of the structure. In order to develop structural health monitoring for application to operational structures, developments inmore » four areas have been undertaken within this project: operational evaluation, diagnostic measurements, information condensation, and damage identification. The developments in each of these four aspects of structural health monitoring have been exercised on a broad range of experimental data. This experimental data has been extracted from structures from several application areas which include aging aircraft, wind energy, aging bridges, offshore structures, structural supports, and mechanical parts. As a result of these advances, Sandia National Laboratories is in a position to perform further advanced development, operational implementation, and technical consulting for a broad class of the nation`s aging infrastructure problems.« less

Research in structures, structural dynamics and materials, 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, William F. (Compiler); Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

1989-01-01

Topics addressed include: composite plates; buckling predictions; missile launch tube modeling; structural/control systems design; optimization of nonlinear R/C frames; error analysis for semi-analytic displacement; crack acoustic emission; and structural dynamics.

Tribute to the contribution of Gerard Lallenment to structural dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Los Alamos National Laboratory

The Society for Experimental Mechanics and the International Modal Analysis Conference recognize the remarkable contribution to experimental mechanics, mechanical engineering and structural dynamics of Professor Gerard Lallement, from the University of Franche-Comte, France. A special session is organized during the IMAC-XX to outline the many achievements of Gerard Lallement in the fields of modal analysis, structural system identification, the theory and practice of structural modification, component mode synthesis and finite element model updating. The purpose of this publication is not to provide an exhaustive account of Gerard Lallement's contribution to structural dynamics. Numerous references are provided that should help themore » interested reader learn more about the many aspects of his work. Instead, the significance of this work is illustrated by discussing the role of structural dynamics in industrial applications and its future challenges. The technical aspects of Gerard Lallement's work are illustrated with a discussion of structural modification, modeling error localization and model updating.« less

Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

PubMed Central

Coudeville, Laurent; Garnett, Geoff P.

2012-01-01

Background With approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition. Methods and Findings We developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks. Conclusion Our model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of secondary infections. PMID:23251466

Mitigating crack propagation in a highly maneuverable flight vehicle using life extending control logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshabasy, Mohamed Mostafa Yousef Bassyouny

In this research, life extending control logic is proposed to reduce the cost of treating the aging problem of military aircraft structures and to avoid catastrophic failures and fatal accidents due to undetected cracks in the airframe components. The life extending control logic is based on load tailoring to facilitate a desired stress sequence that prolongs the structural life of the cracked airframe components by exploiting certain nonlinear crack retardation phenomena. The load is tailored to include infrequent injections of a single-cycle overload or a single-cycle overload and underload. These irregular loadings have an anti-intuitive but beneficial effect, which has been experimentally validated, on the extension of the operational structural life of the aircraft. A rigid six-degree-of freedom dynamic model of a highly maneuverable air vehicle coupled with an elastic dynamic wing model is used to generate the stress history at the lower skin of the wing. A three-dimensional equivalent plate finite element model is used to calculate the stress in the cracked skin. The plate is chosen to be of uniform chord-wise and span-wise thickness where the mechanical properties are assigned using an ad-hoc approach to mimic the full scale wing model. An in-extensional 3-node triangular element is used as the gridding finite element while the aerodynamic load is calculated using the vortex-lattice method where each lattice is laid upon two triangular finite elements with common hypotenuse. The aerodynamic loads, along with the base-excitation which is due to the motion of the rigid aircraft model, are the driving forces acting on the wing finite element model. An aerodynamic control surface is modulated based on the proposed life extending control logic within an existing flight control system without requiring major modification. One of the main goals of life extending control logic is to enhance the aircraft's service life, without incurring significant loss of vehicle dynamic performance. The value of the control-surface deflection angle is modulated so that the created overstress is sufficiently below the yield stress of the panel material. The results show that extension in crack length was reduced by 40% to 75% with an absence of damage mitigation logic. Moreover, the desired structural integrity is satisfied without affecting the air vehicle dynamic performance.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Study on Topology Optimization Design, Manufacturability, and Performance Evaluation of Ti-6Al-4V Porous Structures Fabricated by Selective Laser Melting (SLM)

PubMed Central

Xu, Yangli; Zhang, Dongyun; Zhou, Yan; Wang, Weidong; Cao, Xuanyang

2017-01-01

The combination of topology optimization (TOP) and selective laser melting (SLM) provides the possibility of fabricating the complex, lightweight and high performance geometries overcoming the traditional manufacturing “bottleneck”. This paper evaluates the biomechanical properties of porous structures with porosity from 40% to 80% and unit cell size from 2 to 8 mm, which are designed by TOP and manufactured by SLM. During manufacturability exploration, three typical structures including spiral structure, arched bridge structure and structures with thin walls and small holes are abstracted and investigated, analyzing their manufacturing limits and forming reason. The property tests show that dynamic elastic modulus and compressive strength of porous structures decreases with increases of porosity (constant unit cell size) or unit cell size (constant porosity). Based on the Gibson-Ashby model, three failure models are proposed to describe their compressive behavior, and the structural parameter λ is used to evaluate the stability of the porous structure. Finally, a numerical model for the correlation between porous structural parameters (unit cell size and porosity) and elastic modulus is established, which provides a theoretical reference for matching the elastic modulus of human bones from different age, gender and skeletal sites during innovative medical implant design and manufacturing. PMID:28880229

Study on Topology Optimization Design, Manufacturability, and Performance Evaluation of Ti-6Al-4V Porous Structures Fabricated by Selective Laser Melting (SLM).

PubMed

Xu, Yangli; Zhang, Dongyun; Zhou, Yan; Wang, Weidong; Cao, Xuanyang

2017-09-07

The combination of topology optimization (TOP) and selective laser melting (SLM) provides the possibility of fabricating the complex, lightweight and high performance geometries overcoming the traditional manufacturing "bottleneck". This paper evaluates the biomechanical properties of porous structures with porosity from 40% to 80% and unit cell size from 2 to 8 mm, which are designed by TOP and manufactured by SLM. During manufacturability exploration, three typical structures including spiral structure, arched bridge structure and structures with thin walls and small holes are abstracted and investigated, analyzing their manufacturing limits and forming reason. The property tests show that dynamic elastic modulus and compressive strength of porous structures decreases with increases of porosity (constant unit cell size) or unit cell size (constant porosity). Based on the Gibson-Ashby model, three failure models are proposed to describe their compressive behavior, and the structural parameter λ is used to evaluate the stability of the porous structure. Finally, a numerical model for the correlation between porous structural parameters (unit cell size and porosity) and elastic modulus is established, which provides a theoretical reference for matching the elastic modulus of human bones from different age, gender and skeletal sites during innovative medical implant design and manufacturing.

Efficient finite element modelling for the investigation of the dynamic behaviour of a structure with bolted joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, R.; Rani, M. N. Abdul; Yunus, M. A.; Mirza, W. I. I. Wan Iskandar; Zin, M. S. Mohd

2018-04-01

A simple structure with bolted joints consists of the structural components, bolts and nuts. There are several methods to model the structures with bolted joints, however there is no reliable, efficient and economic modelling methods that can accurately predict its dynamics behaviour. Explained in this paper is an investigation that was conducted to obtain an appropriate modelling method for bolted joints. This was carried out by evaluating four different finite element (FE) models of the assembled plates and bolts namely the solid plates-bolts model, plates without bolt model, hybrid plates-bolts model and simplified plates-bolts model. FE modal analysis was conducted for all four initial FE models of the bolted joints. Results of the FE modal analysis were compared with the experimental modal analysis (EMA) results. EMA was performed to extract the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the test physical structure with bolted joints. Evaluation was made by comparing the number of nodes, number of elements, elapsed computer processing unit (CPU) time, and the total percentage of errors of each initial FE model when compared with EMA result. The evaluation showed that the simplified plates-bolts model could most accurately predict the dynamic behaviour of the structure with bolted joints. This study proved that the reliable, efficient and economic modelling of bolted joints, mainly the representation of the bolting, has played a crucial element in ensuring the accuracy of the dynamic behaviour prediction.

Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Pitzer, Virginia E.; Bowles, Cayley C.; Baker, Stephen; Kang, Gagandeep; Balaji, Veeraraghavan; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2014-01-01

Background Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000–2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic reproductive number (R 0) of typhoid was estimated to be 2.8 in this setting. Vaccination was predicted to confer substantial indirect protection leading to a decrease in the incidence of typhoid in the short term, but (intuitively) typhoid incidence was predicted to rebound 5–15 years following a one-time campaign. Conclusions/Significance We found that model predictions for the overall and indirect effects of vaccination depend strongly on the role of chronic carriers in transmission. Carrier transmissibility was tentatively estimated to be low, consistent with recent studies, but was identified as a pivotal area for future research. It is unlikely that typhoid can be eliminated from endemic settings through vaccination alone. PMID:24416466

Simulating Vibrations in a Complex Loaded Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cao, Tim T.

2005-01-01

The Dynamic Response Computation (DIRECT) computer program simulates vibrations induced in a complex structure by applied dynamic loads. Developed to enable rapid analysis of launch- and landing- induced vibrations and stresses in a space shuttle, DIRECT also can be used to analyze dynamic responses of other structures - for example, the response of a building to an earthquake, or the response of an oil-drilling platform and attached tanks to large ocean waves. For a space-shuttle simulation, the required input to DIRECT includes mathematical models of the space shuttle and its payloads, and a set of forcing functions that simulates launch and landing loads. DIRECT can accommodate multiple levels of payload attachment and substructure as well as nonlinear dynamic responses of structural interfaces. DIRECT combines the shuttle and payload models into a single structural model, to which the forcing functions are then applied. The resulting equations of motion are reduced to an optimum set and decoupled into a unique format for simulating dynamics. During the simulation, maximum vibrations, loads, and stresses are monitored and recorded for subsequent analysis to identify structural deficiencies in the shuttle and/or payloads.

Overlapping community detection based on link graph using distance dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Zhang, Jing; Cai, Li-Jun

2018-01-01

The distance dynamics model was recently proposed to detect the disjoint community of a complex network. To identify the overlapping structure of a network using the distance dynamics model, an overlapping community detection algorithm, called L-Attractor, is proposed in this paper. The process of L-Attractor mainly consists of three phases. In the first phase, L-Attractor transforms the original graph to a link graph (a new edge graph) to assure that one node has multiple distances. In the second phase, using the improved distance dynamics model, a dynamic interaction process is introduced to simulate the distance dynamics (shrink or stretch). Through the dynamic interaction process, all distances converge, and the disjoint community structure of the link graph naturally manifests itself. In the third phase, a recovery method is designed to convert the disjoint community structure of the link graph to the overlapping community structure of the original graph. Extensive experiments are conducted on the LFR benchmark networks as well as real-world networks. Based on the results, our algorithm demonstrates higher accuracy and quality than other state-of-the-art algorithms.

Principles and Overview of Sampling Methods for Modeling Macromolecular Structure and Dynamics

PubMed Central

Moffatt, Ryan; Ma, Buyong; Nussinov, Ruth

2016-01-01

Investigation of macromolecular structure and dynamics is fundamental to understanding how macromolecules carry out their functions in the cell. Significant advances have been made toward this end in silico, with a growing number of computational methods proposed yearly to study and simulate various aspects of macromolecular structure and dynamics. This review aims to provide an overview of recent advances, focusing primarily on methods proposed for exploring the structure space of macromolecules in isolation and in assemblies for the purpose of characterizing equilibrium structure and dynamics. In addition to surveying recent applications that showcase current capabilities of computational methods, this review highlights state-of-the-art algorithmic techniques proposed to overcome challenges posed in silico by the disparate spatial and time scales accessed by dynamic macromolecules. This review is not meant to be exhaustive, as such an endeavor is impossible, but rather aims to balance breadth and depth of strategies for modeling macromolecular structure and dynamics for a broad audience of novices and experts. PMID:27124275

Principles and Overview of Sampling Methods for Modeling Macromolecular Structure and Dynamics.

PubMed

Maximova, Tatiana; Moffatt, Ryan; Ma, Buyong; Nussinov, Ruth; Shehu, Amarda

2016-04-01

Investigation of macromolecular structure and dynamics is fundamental to understanding how macromolecules carry out their functions in the cell. Significant advances have been made toward this end in silico, with a growing number of computational methods proposed yearly to study and simulate various aspects of macromolecular structure and dynamics. This review aims to provide an overview of recent advances, focusing primarily on methods proposed for exploring the structure space of macromolecules in isolation and in assemblies for the purpose of characterizing equilibrium structure and dynamics. In addition to surveying recent applications that showcase current capabilities of computational methods, this review highlights state-of-the-art algorithmic techniques proposed to overcome challenges posed in silico by the disparate spatial and time scales accessed by dynamic macromolecules. This review is not meant to be exhaustive, as such an endeavor is impossible, but rather aims to balance breadth and depth of strategies for modeling macromolecular structure and dynamics for a broad audience of novices and experts.

Dynamic and fluid–structure interaction simulations of bioprosthetic heart valves using parametric design with T-splines and Fung-type material models

PubMed Central

Kamensky, David; Xu, Fei; Kiendl, Josef; Wang, Chenglong; Wu, Michael C. H.; Mineroff, Joshua; Reali, Alessandro; Bazilevs, Yuri; Sacks, Michael S.

2015-01-01

This paper builds on a recently developed immersogeometric fluid–structure interaction (FSI) methodology for bioprosthetic heart valve (BHV) modeling and simulation. It enhances the proposed framework in the areas of geometry design and constitutive modeling. With these enhancements, BHV FSI simulations may be performed with greater levels of automation, robustness and physical realism. In addition, the paper presents a comparison between FSI analysis and standalone structural dynamics simulation driven by prescribed transvalvular pressure, the latter being a more common modeling choice for this class of problems. The FSI computation achieved better physiological realism in predicting the valve leaflet deformation than its standalone structural dynamics counterpart. PMID:26392645

An Examination of Statistical Power in Multigroup Dynamic Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prindle, John J.; McArdle, John J.

2012-01-01

This study used statistical simulation to calculate differential statistical power in dynamic structural equation models with groups (as in McArdle & Prindle, 2008). Patterns of between-group differences were simulated to provide insight into how model parameters influence power approximations. Chi-square and root mean square error of…

Creating a Test Validated Structural Dynamic Finite Element Model of the X-56A Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-Gi; Truong, Samson

2014-01-01

Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of the Multi Utility Technology Test-bed, X-56A aircraft, is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of the X-56A aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is improved using a model tuning tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of the X-56A aircraft have been improved in a single optimization run. Frequency and the cross-orthogonality (mode shape) matrix were the primary focus for improvement, while other properties such as center of gravity location, total weight, and offdiagonal terms of the mass orthogonality matrix were used as constraints. The end result was a more improved and desirable structural dynamic finite element model configuration for the X-56A aircraft. Improved frequencies and mode shapes in this study increased average flutter speeds of the X-56A aircraft by 7.6% compared to the baseline model.

Structural dynamics of the mitochondrial compartment.

PubMed

Thorsness, P E

1992-09-01

The metabolic activities of mitochondria have been extensively characterized. However, there is much less known about the morphogenic changes of the mitochondrial compartment during growth, development and aging of the cell and the consequences of those structural changes on cellular metabolism. There is a growing body of evidence for interactions of mitochondria with cytoskeletal components and changes of mitochondrial structure during development and in response to changing environmental conditions. Segregation and recombination of mitochondrial genomes are also processes dependent upon the dynamic nature of the mitochondrial compartment. These regulatory and structural aspects of mitochondrial compartment dynamics will play an important role in the analysis of mitochondrial function and pathology.

Modelling and monitoring of passive control structures in human movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemami, Hooshang; Hemami, Mahmoud

2014-09-01

Passive tissues, ligaments and cartilage are vital to human movement. Their contribution to stability, joint function and joint integrity is essential. The articulation of their functions and quantitative assessment of what they do in a healthy or injured state are important in athletics, orthopaedics, medicine and health. In this paper, the role of cartilage and ligaments in stability of natural contacts, connections and joints is articulated by including them in two very simple skeletal systems: one- and three-link rigid body systems. Based on the Newton-Euler equations, a state space presentation of the dynamics is discussed that allows inclusion of ligament and cartilage structures in the model, and allows for Lyapunov stability studies for the original and reduced systems. The connection constraints may be holonomic and non-holonomic depending on the structure of the passive elements. The development is pertinent to the eventual design of a computational framework for the study of human movement that involves computer models of all the relevant skeletal, neural and physiological elements of the central nervous system (CNS). Such a structure also permits testing of different hypotheses about the functional neuroanatomy of the CNS, and the study of the effects and dynamics of disease, deterioration, aging and injuries. The formulation here is applied to one- and three-link systems. Digital computer simulations of a two rigid body system are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the approach and the methods.

Dynamic stiffness of chemically and physically ageing rubber vibration isolators in the audible frequency range: Part 2—waveguide solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kari, Leif

2017-09-01

The dynamic stiffness of a chemically and physically ageing rubber vibration isolator in the audible frequency range is modelled as a function of ageing temperature, ageing time, actual temperature, time, frequency and isolator dimension. In particular, the dynamic stiffness for an axially symmetric, homogeneously aged rubber vibration isolator is derived by waveguides where the eigenmodes given by the dispersion relation for an infinite cylinder satisfying traction free radial surface boundary condition are matched to satisfy the displacement boundary conditions at the lateral surface ends of the finite rubber cylinder. The constitutive equations are derived in a companion paper (Part 1). The dynamic stiffness is calculated over the whole audible frequency range 20-20,000 Hz at several physical ageing times for a temperature history starting at thermodynamic equilibrium at +25°C and exposed by a sudden temperature step down to -60°C and at several chemical ageing times at temperature +25°C with simultaneous molecular network scission and reformation. The dynamic stiffness results are displaying a strong frequency dependence at a short physical ageing time, showing stiffness magnitude peaks and troughs, and a strong physical ageing time dependence, showing a large stiffness magnitude increase with the increased physical ageing time, while the peaks and troughs are smoothed out. Likewise, stiffness magnitude peaks and troughs are frequency-shifted with increased chemical ageing time. The developed model is possible to apply for dynamic stiffness prediction of rubber vibration isolator over a broad audible frequency range under realistic environmental condition of chemical ageing, mainly attributed to oxygen exposure from outside and of physical ageing, primarily perceived at low-temperature steps.

Dynamic response of underpasses for high-speed train lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vega, J.; Fraile, A.; Alarcon, E.; Hermanns, L.

2012-11-01

Underpasses are common in modern railway lines. Wildlife corridors and drainage conduits often fall into this category of partially buried structures. Their dynamic behavior has received far less attention than that of other structures such as bridges, but their large number makes their study an interesting challenge from the viewpoint of safety and cost savings. Here, we present a complete study of a culvert, including on-site measurements and numerical modeling. The studied structure belongs to the high-speed railway line linking Segovia and Valladolid in Spain. The line was opened to traffic in 2004. On-site measurements were performed for the structure by recording the dynamic response at selected points of the structure during the passage of high-speed trains at speeds ranging between 200 and 300 km/h. The measurements provide not only reference values suitable for model fitting, but also a good insight into the main features of the dynamic behavior of this structure. Finite element techniques were used to model the dynamic behavior of the structure and its key features. Special attention is paid to vertical accelerations, the values of which should be limited to avoid track instability according to Eurocode. This study furthers our understanding of the dynamic response of railway underpasses to train loads.

Communication: On the origin of the non-Arrhenius behavior in water reorientation dynamics.

PubMed

Stirnemann, Guillaume; Laage, Damien

2012-07-21

We combine molecular dynamics simulations and analytic modeling to determine the origin of the non-Arrhenius temperature dependence of liquid water's reorientation and hydrogen-bond dynamics between 235 K and 350 K. We present a quantitative model connecting hydrogen-bond exchange dynamics to local structural fluctuations, measured by the asphericity of Voronoi cells associated with each water molecule. For a fixed local structure the regular Arrhenius behavior is recovered, and the global anomalous temperature dependence is demonstrated to essentially result from a continuous shift in the unimodal structure distribution upon cooling. The non-Arrhenius behavior can thus be explained without invoking an equilibrium between distinct structures. In addition, the large width of the homogeneous structural distribution is shown to cause a growing dynamical heterogeneity and a non-exponential relaxation at low temperature.

Parametrization consequences of constraining soil organic matter models by total carbon and radiocarbon using long-term field data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menichetti, Lorenzo; Kätterer, Thomas; Leifeld, Jens

2016-05-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics result from different interacting processes and controls on spatial scales from sub-aggregate to pedon to the whole ecosystem. These complex dynamics are translated into models as abundant degrees of freedom. This high number of not directly measurable variables and, on the other hand, very limited data at disposal result in equifinality and parameter uncertainty. Carbon radioisotope measurements are a proxy for SOC age both at annual to decadal (bomb peak based) and centennial to millennial timescales (radio decay based), and thus can be used in addition to total organic C for constraining SOC models. By considering this additional information, uncertainties in model structure and parameters may be reduced. To test this hypothesis we studied SOC dynamics and their defining kinetic parameters in the Zürich Organic Fertilization Experiment (ZOFE) experiment, a > 60-year-old controlled cropland experiment in Switzerland, by utilizing SOC and SO14C time series. To represent different processes we applied five model structures, all stemming from a simple mother model (Introductory Carbon Balance Model - ICBM): (I) two decomposing pools, (II) an inert pool added, (III) three decomposing pools, (IV) two decomposing pools with a substrate control feedback on decomposition, (V) as IV but with also an inert pool. These structures were extended to explicitly represent total SOC and 14C pools. The use of different model structures allowed us to explore model structural uncertainty and the impact of 14C on kinetic parameters. We considered parameter uncertainty by calibrating in a formal Bayesian framework. By varying the relative importance of total SOC and SO14C data in the calibration, we could quantify the effect of the information from these two data streams on estimated model parameters. The weighing of the two data streams was crucial for determining model outcomes, and we suggest including it in future modeling efforts whenever SO14C data are available. The measurements and all model structures indicated a dramatic decline in SOC in the ZOFE experiment after an initial land use change in 1949 from grass- to cropland, followed by a constant but smaller decline. According to all structures, the three treatments (control, mineral fertilizer, farmyard manure) we considered were still far from equilibrium. The estimates of mean residence time (MRT) of the C pools defined by our models were sensitive to the consideration of the SO14C data stream. Model structure had a smaller effect on estimated MRT, which ranged between 5.9 ± 0.1 and 4.2 ± 0.1 years and 78.9 ± 0.1 and 98.9 ± 0.1 years for young and old pools, respectively, for structures without substrate interactions. The simplest model structure performed the best according to information criteria, validating the idea that we still lack data for mechanistic SOC models. Although we could not exclude any of the considered processes possibly involved in SOC decomposition, it was not possible to discriminate their relative importance.

Flexible Virtual Structure Consideration in Dynamic Modeling of Mobile Robots Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kamel, A. Essghaier; Beji, L.; Lerbet, J.; Abichou, A.

2009-03-01

In cooperative mobile robotics, we look for formation keeping and maintenance of a geometric configuration during movement. As a solution to these problems, the concept of a virtual structure is considered. Based on this idea, we have developed an efficient flexible virtual structure, describing the dynamic model of n vehicles in formation and where the whole formation is kept dependant. Notes that, for 2D and 3D space navigation, only a rigid virtual structure was proposed in the literature. Further, the problem was limited to a kinematic behavior of the structure. Hence, the flexible virtual structure in dynamic modeling of mobile robots formation presented in this paper, gives more capabilities to the formation to avoid obstacles in hostile environment while keeping formation and avoiding inter-agent collision.

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell model for aging predictions: Simulated equivalent active surface area loss and comparisons with durability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robin, C.; Gérard, M.; Quinaud, M.; d'Arbigny, J.; Bultel, Y.

2016-09-01

The prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) lifetime is one of the major challenges to optimize both material properties and dynamic control of the fuel cell system. In this study, by a multiscale modeling approach, a mechanistic catalyst dissolution model is coupled to a dynamic PEMFC cell model to predict the performance loss of the PEMFC. Results are compared to two 2000-h experimental aging tests. More precisely, an original approach is introduced to estimate the loss of an equivalent active surface area during an aging test. Indeed, when the computed Electrochemical Catalyst Surface Area profile is fitted on the experimental measures from Cyclic Voltammetry, the computed performance loss of the PEMFC is underestimated. To be able to predict the performance loss measured by polarization curves during the aging test, an equivalent active surface area is obtained by a model inversion. This methodology enables to successfully find back the experimental cell voltage decay during time. The model parameters are fitted from the polarization curves so that they include the global degradation. Moreover, the model captures the aging heterogeneities along the surface of the cell observed experimentally. Finally, a second 2000-h durability test in dynamic operating conditions validates the approach.

A quantitative dynamic systems model of health-related quality of life among older adults

PubMed Central

Roppolo, Mattia; Kunnen, E Saskia; van Geert, Paul L; Mulasso, Anna; Rabaglietti, Emanuela

2015-01-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a person-centered concept. The analysis of HRQOL is highly relevant in the aged population, which is generally suffering from health decline. Starting from a conceptual dynamic systems model that describes the development of HRQOL in individuals over time, this study aims to develop and test a quantitative dynamic systems model, in order to reveal the possible dynamic trends of HRQOL among older adults. The model is tested in different ways: first, with a calibration procedure to test whether the model produces theoretically plausible results, and second, with a preliminary validation procedure using empirical data of 194 older adults. This first validation tested the prediction that given a particular starting point (first empirical data point), the model will generate dynamic trajectories that lead to the observed endpoint (second empirical data point). The analyses reveal that the quantitative model produces theoretically plausible trajectories, thus providing support for the calibration procedure. Furthermore, the analyses of validation show a good fit between empirical and simulated data. In fact, no differences were found in the comparison between empirical and simulated final data for the same subgroup of participants, whereas the comparison between different subgroups of people resulted in significant differences. These data provide an initial basis of evidence for the dynamic nature of HRQOL during the aging process. Therefore, these data may give new theoretical and applied insights into the study of HRQOL and its development with time in the aging population. PMID:26604722

Modeling nonstructural carbohydrate reserve dynamics in forest trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, A. D.; Keenan, T. F.; Carbone, M. S.; Czimczik, C. I.; Hollinger, D. Y.; Murakami, P.; Schaberg, P.; Xu, X.

2012-12-01

Understanding the factors influencing the availability of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to climate change and environmental stress. However, carbon allocation processes remain poorly understood and many models either ignore NSC reserves, or use simple and untested representations of NSC allocation and pool dynamics. Using model-data fusion techniques, we combined a parsimonious model of forest ecosystem carbon cycling with novel field sampling and laboratory analyses of NSCs. Simulations were conducted for an evergreen conifer forest and a deciduous broadleaf forest in New England. We used radiocarbon methods based on the 14C "bomb spike" to estimate the age of NSC reserves, and used this to constrain the mean residence time of modeled NSCs. We used additional data, including tower-measured fluxes of CO2, soil and biomass carbon stocks, woody biomass increment, and leaf area index and litterfall, to further constrain the model's parameters and initial conditions. Three years of field measurements indicate that stemwood NSCs are highly dynamic on seasonal time scales. The modeled seasonal dynamics conform to expectations (accumulated in the growing season, depleted in the dormant season) but are inconsistent with the observational data (total stemwood NSC concentrations higher in March than November, lower in August than June). We interpret this contradiction to suggest that stemwood concentrations provide an incomplete picture of the whole-tree NSC budget. A two-pool model structure that accounted for both "fast" (active pool, MRT ≈1 y) and "slow" (passive pool, MRT ≥ 20 y) cycling reserves (1) gives reasonable estimates of the size and MRT of the total NSC pool; (2) greatly improves model predictions of interannual variability in woody biomass increment, compared to zero- or one-pool structures used in the majority of existing models; (3) provides a mechanism by which observations of a one-year lag between carbon uptake and growth can be explained; (4) reconciles the apparent contradiction of a reserve pool that is both highly dynamic over time, and also a decade old on average; and (5) shows how younger reserves can be preferentially used to support growth and metabolism, but allows for the older reserves to be drawn on if the younger reserves are depleted. The improved performance and greater realism of our model is achieved without requiring a substantial increase in model complexity. From the perspective of modeling forest responses to climate change, we expect that models incorporating dynamic stored reserves should be better able to represent the lagged effects of climate extremes and disturbance on ecosystem C fluxes.

The AgroEcoSystem (AgES) response-function model simulates layered soil water dynamics in semi-arid Colorado: sensitivity and calibration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation of vertical soil hydrology is a critical component of simulating even more complex soil water dynamics in space and time, including land-atmosphere and subsurface interactions. The AgroEcoSystem (AgES) model is defined here as a single land unit implementation of the full AgES-W (Watershe...

Future Carbon Dynamics of the Northern Rockies Ecoregion due to Climate Impacts and Fire Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, U.; Lang, B.; Rabot, E.; Stössel, B.; Urbanski, L.; Vogel, H. J.; Wiesmeier, M.; Wollschlaeger, U.

2016-12-01

The impact of agricultural management on soil functions is manifold and severe. It has both positive and adverse influence. Our goal is to develop model tools quantifying the agricultural impact on soil functions based on a mechanistic understanding of soil processes to support farmers and decision makers. The modeling approach is based on defining relevant soil components, i.e. soil matrix, macropores, organisms, roots and organic matter. They interact and form the soil's macroscopic properties and functions including water and gas dynamics, and biochemical cycles. Based on existing literature information we derive functional interaction processes and combine them in a network of dynamic soil components. In agricultural soils, a major issue is linked to changes in soil structure and their influence on water dynamics. Compaction processes are well studied in literature, but for the resilience due to root growth and activity of soil organisms the information is scarcer. We implement structural dynamics into soil water and gas simulations using a lumped model that is both coarse enough to allow extensive model runs while still preserving some important, yet rarely modeled phenomenons like preferential flow, hysteretic and dynamic behavior. For simulating water dynamics, at each depth, the model assumes water at different binding energies depending on soil structure, i.e. the pore size distribution. Non-equilibrium is postulated, meaning that free water may occur even if the soil is not fully saturated. All energy levels are interconnected allowing water to move, both within a spatial node, and between neighboring nodes (adding gravity). Structure dynamics alters the capacity of this water compartments, and the conductance of its connections. Connections are switched on and off depending on whether their sources contain water or their targets have free capacity. This leads to piecewise linear system behavior that allows fast calculation for extended time steps. Based on this concept, the dynamics of soil structure can be directly linked to soil water dynamics as a main driver for other soil processes. Further steps will include integration of temperature and solute leaching as well as defining the feedback of the water regime on the structure forming processes.

Unveiling the structural arrangements responsible for the atomic dynamics in metallic glasses during physical aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordano, V. M.; Ruta, B.

2016-01-01

Understanding and controlling physical aging, that is, the spontaneous temporal evolution of out-of-equilibrium systems, represents one of the greatest tasks in material science. Recent studies have revealed the existence of a complex atomic motion in metallic glasses, with different aging regimes in contrast with the typical continuous aging observed in macroscopic quantities. By combining dynamical and structural synchrotron techniques, here for the first time we directly connect previously identified microscopic structural mechanisms with the peculiar atomic motion, providing a broader unique view of their complexity. We show that the atomic scale is dominated by the interplay between two processes: rearrangements releasing residual stresses related to a cascade mechanism of relaxation, and medium range ordering processes, which do not affect the local density, likely due to localized relaxations of liquid-like regions. As temperature increases, a surprising additional secondary relaxation process sets in, together with a faster medium range ordering, likely precursors of crystallization.

Classification framework for partially observed dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2017-04-01

We present a general framework for classifying partially observed dynamical systems based on the idea of learning in the model space. In contrast to the existing approaches using point estimates of model parameters to represent individual data items, we employ posterior distributions over model parameters, thus taking into account in a principled manner the uncertainty due to both the generative (observational and/or dynamic noise) and observation (sampling in time) processes. We evaluate the framework on two test beds: a biological pathway model and a stochastic double-well system. Crucially, we show that the classification performance is not impaired when the model structure used for inferring posterior distributions is much more simple than the observation-generating model structure, provided the reduced-complexity inferential model structure captures the essential characteristics needed for the given classification task.

Methodologies for Verification and Validation of Space Launch System (SLS) Structural Dynamic Models: Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coppolino, Robert N.

2018-01-01

Verification and validation (V&V) is a highly challenging undertaking for SLS structural dynamics models due to the magnitude and complexity of SLS subassemblies and subassemblies. Responses to challenges associated with V&V of Space Launch System (SLS) structural dynamics models are presented in Volume I of this paper. Four methodologies addressing specific requirements for V&V are discussed. (1) Residual Mode Augmentation (RMA). (2) Modified Guyan Reduction (MGR) and Harmonic Reduction (HR, introduced in 1976). (3) Mode Consolidation (MC). Finally, (4) Experimental Mode Verification (EMV). This document contains the appendices to Volume I.

Stochastic modeling indicates that aging and somatic evolution in the hematopoetic system are driven by non-cell-autonomous processes.

PubMed

Rozhok, Andrii I; Salstrom, Jennifer L; DeGregori, James

2014-12-01

Age-dependent tissue decline and increased cancer incidence are widely accepted to be rate-limited by the accumulation of somatic mutations over time. Current models of carcinogenesis are dominated by the assumption that oncogenic mutations have defined advantageous fitness effects on recipient stem and progenitor cells, promoting and rate-limiting somatic evolution. However, this assumption is markedly discrepant with evolutionary theory, whereby fitness is a dynamic property of a phenotype imposed upon and widely modulated by environment. We computationally modeled dynamic microenvironment-dependent fitness alterations in hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) within the Sprengel-Liebig system known to govern evolution at the population level. Our model for the first time integrates real data on age-dependent dynamics of HSC division rates, pool size, and accumulation of genetic changes and demonstrates that somatic evolution is not rate-limited by the occurrence of mutations, but instead results from aged microenvironment-driven alterations in the selective/fitness value of previously accumulated genetic changes. Our results are also consistent with evolutionary models of aging and thus oppose both somatic mutation-centric paradigms of carcinogenesis and tissue functional decline. In total, we demonstrate that aging directly promotes HSC fitness decline and somatic evolution via non-cell-autonomous mechanisms.

Robust Flutter Analysis for Aeroservoelastic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotikalpudi, Aditya

The dynamics of a flexible air vehicle are typically described using an aeroservoelastic model which accounts for interaction between aerodynamics, structural dynamics, rigid body dynamics and control laws. These subsystems can be individually modeled using a theoretical approach and experimental data from various ground tests can be combined into them. For instance, a combination of linear finite element modeling and data from ground vibration tests may be used to obtain a validated structural model. Similarly, an aerodynamic model can be obtained using computational fluid dynamics or simple panel methods and partially updated using limited data from wind tunnel tests. In all cases, the models obtained for these subsystems have a degree of uncertainty owing to inherent assumptions in the theory and errors in experimental data. Suitable uncertain models that account for these uncertainties can be built to study the impact of these modeling errors on the ability to predict dynamic instabilities known as flutter. This thesis addresses the methods used for modeling rigid body dynamics, structural dynamics and unsteady aerodynamics of a blended wing design called the Body Freedom Flutter vehicle. It discusses the procedure used to incorporate data from a wide range of ground based experiments in the form of model uncertainties within these subsystems. Finally, it provides the mathematical tools for carrying out flutter analysis and sensitivity analysis which account for these model uncertainties. These analyses are carried out for both open loop and controller in the loop (closed loop) cases.

A Nonlinear Dynamic Model and Free Vibration Analysis of Deployable Mesh Reflectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shi, H.; Yang, B.; Thomson, M.; Fang, H.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a dynamic model of deployable mesh reflectors, in which geometric and material nonlinearities of such a space structure are fully described. Then, by linearization around an equilibrium configuration of the reflector structure, a linearized model is obtained. With this linearized model, the natural frequencies and mode shapes of a reflector can be computed. The nonlinear dynamic model of deployable mesh reflectors is verified by using commercial finite element software in numerical simulation. As shall be seen, the proposed nonlinear model is useful for shape (surface) control of deployable mesh reflectors under thermal loads.

Analysis of Hepatitis C Virus Decline during Treatment with the Protease Inhibitor Danoprevir Using a Multiscale Model

DOE PAGES

Rong, Libin; Guedj, Jeremie; Dahari, Harel; ...

2013-03-14

The current paradigm for studying hepatitis C virus (HCV) dynamics in patients utilizes a standard viral dynamic model that keeps track of uninfected (target) cells, infected cells, and virus. The model does not account for the dynamics of intracellular viral replication, which is the major target of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). In this paper, we describe and study a recently developed multiscale age-structured model that explicitly considers the potential effects of DAAs on intracellular viral RNA production, degradation, and secretion as virus into the circulation. We show that when therapy significantly blocks both intracellular viral RNA production and virus secretion,more » the serum viral load decline has three phases, with slopes reflecting the rate of serum viral clearance, the rate of loss of intracellular viral RNA, and the rate of loss of intracellular replication templates and infected cells, respectively. We also derive analytical approximations of the multiscale model and use one of them to analyze data from patients treated for 14 days with the HCV protease inhibitor danoprevir. Analysis suggests that danoprevir significantly blocks intracellular viral production (with mean effectiveness 99.2%), enhances intracellular viral RNA degradation about 5-fold, and moderately inhibits viral secretion (with mean effectiveness 56%). Finally, the multiscale model can be used to study viral dynamics in patients treated with other DAAs and explore their mechanisms of action in treatment of hepatitis C.« less

Study on Human-structure Dynamic Interaction in Civil Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Feng; Cao, Li Lin; Li, Xing Hua

2018-06-01

The research of human-structure dynamic interaction are reviewed. Firstly, the influence of the crowd load on structural dynamic characteristics is introduced and the advantages and disadvantages of different crowd load models are analyzed. Then, discussing the influence of structural vibration on the human-induced load, especially the influence of different stiffness structures on the crowd load. Finally, questions about human-structure interaction that require further study are presented.

Modelling Ni-mH battery using Cauer and Foster structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, E.; Forgez, C.; Lagonotte, P.; Friedrich, G.

This paper deals with dynamic models of Ni-mH battery and focuses on the development of the equivalent electric models. We propose two equivalent electric models, using Cauer and Foster structures, able to relate both dynamic and energetic behavior of the battery. These structures are well adapted to real time applications (e.g. Battery Management Systems) or system simulations. A special attention will be brought to the influence of the complexity of the equivalent electric scheme on the precision of the model. Experimental validations allow to discuss about performances of proposed models.

Status of DSMT research program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgowan, Paul E.; Javeed, Mehzad; Edighoffer, Harold H.

1991-01-01

The status of the Dynamic Scale Model Technology (DSMT) research program is presented. DSMT is developing scale model technology for large space structures as part of the Control Structure Interaction (CSI) program at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Under DSMT a hybrid-scale structural dynamics model of Space Station Freedom was developed. Space Station Freedom was selected as the focus structure for DSMT since the station represents the first opportunity to obtain flight data on a complex, three-dimensional space structure. Included is an overview of DSMT including the development of the space station scale model and the resulting hardware. Scaling technology was developed for this model to achieve a ground test article which existing test facilities can accommodate while employing realistically scaled hardware. The model was designed and fabricated by the Lockheed Missile and Space Co., and is assembled at LaRc for dynamic testing. Also, results from ground tests and analyses of the various model components are presented along with plans for future subassembly and matted model tests. Finally, utilization of the scale model for enhancing analysis verification of the full-scale space station is also considered.

Recent Developments in Smart Adaptive Structures for Solar Sailcraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whorton, M. S.; Kim, Y. K.; Oakley, J.; Adetona, O.; Keel, L. H.

2007-01-01

The "Smart Adaptive Structures for Solar Sailcraft" development activity at MSFC has investigated issues associated with understanding how to model and scale the subsystem and multi-body system dynamics of a gossamer solar sailcraft with the objective of designing sailcraft attitude control systems. This research and development activity addressed three key tasks that leveraged existing facilities and core competencies of MSFC to investigate dynamics and control issues of solar sails. Key aspects of this effort included modeling and testing of a 30 m deployable boom; modeling of the multi-body system dynamics of a gossamer sailcraft; investigation of control-structures interaction for gossamer sailcraft; and development and experimental demonstration of adaptive control technologies to mitigate control-structures interaction.

Dynamic Testing of a Subscale Sunshield for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lienard, Sebastien; Johnston, John D.; Ross, Brian; Smith, James; Brodeur, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The NGST sunshield is a lightweight, flexible structure consisting of multiple layers of pretensioned, thin-film membranes supported by deployable booms. The structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield must be well understood in order to predict its influence on observatory performance. Ground tests were carried out in a vacuum environment to characterize the structural dynamic behavior of a one-tenth scale model of the sunshield. Results from the tests will be used to validate analytical modeling techniques that can be used in conjunction with scaling laws to predict the performance of the full-sized structure. This paper summarizes the ground tests and presents representative results for the dynamic behavior of the sunshield.

Swimming attenuates d-galactose-induced brain aging via suppressing miR-34a-mediated autophagy impairment and abnormal mitochondrial dynamics.

PubMed

Kou, Xianjuan; Li, Jie; Liu, Xingran; Chang, Jingru; Zhao, Qingxia; Jia, Shaohui; Fan, Jingjing; Chen, Ning

2017-06-01

microRNAs (miRNAs) have been reported to be involved in many neurodegenerative diseases. To explore the regulatory role of miR-34a in aging-related diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) during exercise intervention, we constructed a rat model with d-galactose (d-gal)-induced oxidative stress and cognitive impairment coupled with dysfunctional autophagy and abnormal mitochondrial dynamics, determined the mitigation of cognitive impairment of d-gal-induced aging rats during swimming intervention, and evaluated miR-34a-mediated functional status of autophagy and abnormal mitochondrial dynamics. Meanwhile, whether the upregulation of miR-34a can lead to dysfunctional autophagy and abnormal mitochondrial dynamics was confirmed in human SH-SY5Y cells with silenced miR-34a by the transfection of a miR-34a inhibitor. Results indicated that swimming intervention could significantly attenuate cognitive impairment, prevent the upregulation of miR-34a, mitigate the dysfunctional autophagy, and inhibit the increase of dynamin-related protein 1 (DRP1) in d-gal-induced aging model rats. In contrast, the miR-34a inhibitor in cell model not only attenuated D-gal-induced the impairment of autophagy but also decreased the expression of DRP1 and mitofusin 2 (MFN2). Therefore, swimming training can delay brain aging of d-gal-induced aging rats through attenuating the impairment of miR-34a-mediated autophagy and abnormal mitochondrial dynamics, and miR-34a could be the novel therapeutic target for aging-related diseases such as AD. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In the present study, we have found that the upregulation of miR-34a is the hallmark of aging or aging-related diseases, which can result in dysfunctional autophagy and abnormal mitochondrial dynamics. In contrast, swimming intervention can delay the aging process by rescuing the impaired functional status of autophagy and abnormal mitochondrial dynamics via the suppression of miR-34a. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

The Structure of the Young Star Cluster NGC 6231. II. Structure, Formation, and Fate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, Michael A.; Getman, Konstantin V.; Feigelson, Eric D.; Sills, Alison; Gromadzki, Mariusz; Medina, Nicolás; Borissova, Jordanka; Kurtev, Radostin

2017-12-01

The young cluster NGC 6231 (stellar ages ˜2-7 Myr) is observed shortly after star formation activity has ceased. Using the catalog of 2148 probable cluster members obtained from Chandra, VVV, and optical surveys (Paper I), we examine the cluster’s spatial structure and dynamical state. The spatial distribution of stars is remarkably well fit by an isothermal sphere with moderate elongation, while other commonly used models like Plummer spheres, multivariate normal distributions, or power-law models are poor fits. The cluster has a core radius of 1.2 ± 0.1 pc and a central density of ˜200 stars pc-3. The distribution of stars is mildly mass segregated. However, there is no radial stratification of the stars by age. Although most of the stars belong to a single cluster, a small subcluster of stars is found superimposed on the main cluster, and there are clumpy non-isotropic distributions of stars outside ˜4 core radii. When the size, mass, and age of NGC 6231 are compared to other young star clusters and subclusters in nearby active star-forming regions, it lies at the high-mass end of the distribution but along the same trend line. This could result from similar formation processes, possibly hierarchical cluster assembly. We argue that NGC 6231 has expanded from its initial size but that it remains gravitationally bound.

Understanding of Relation Structures of Graphical Models by Lower Secondary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Buuren, Onne; Heck, André; Ellermeijer, Ton

2016-01-01

A learning path has been developed on system dynamical graphical modelling, integrated into the Dutch lower secondary physics curriculum. As part of the developmental research for this learning path, students' understanding of the relation structures shown in the diagrams of graphical system dynamics based models has been investigated. One of our…

Dynamic Stiffness Modeling of Composite Plate and Shell Assemblies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-09

FA8655-10-1-3084 Report 6 Dynamic Stiffness Modelling of Plate and Shell Assemblies 4 Introduction Aerospace structures are generally made up of thin ...Sound and Vibration, 294(1- 2):131–161, 2006. [23] Y. F. Xing and B. Liu. New exact solutions for free vibrations of thin orthotropic rectangular plates ...Structures, 89(5–6):467–475, 2011. [80] A.Y.T. Leung. Dynamic stiffness analysis of laminated composite plates . Thin - Walled Structures, 25:109–133, 1996

Correlation of ground tests and analyses of a dynamically scaled Space Station model configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Javeed, Mehzad; Edighoffer, Harold H.; Mcgowan, Paul E.

1993-01-01

Verification of analytical models through correlation with ground test results of a complex space truss structure is demonstrated. A multi-component, dynamically scaled space station model configuration is the focus structure for this work. Previously established test/analysis correlation procedures are used to develop improved component analytical models. Integrated system analytical models, consisting of updated component analytical models, are compared with modal test results to establish the accuracy of system-level dynamic predictions. Design sensitivity model updating methods are shown to be effective for providing improved component analytical models. Also, the effects of component model accuracy and interface modeling fidelity on the accuracy of integrated model predictions is examined.

Structure-based control of complex networks with nonlinear dynamics.

PubMed

Zañudo, Jorge Gomez Tejeda; Yang, Gang; Albert, Réka

2017-07-11

What can we learn about controlling a system solely from its underlying network structure? Here we adapt a recently developed framework for control of networks governed by a broad class of nonlinear dynamics that includes the major dynamic models of biological, technological, and social processes. This feedback-based framework provides realizable node overrides that steer a system toward any of its natural long-term dynamic behaviors, regardless of the specific functional forms and system parameters. We use this framework on several real networks, identify the topological characteristics that underlie the predicted node overrides, and compare its predictions to those of structural controllability in control theory. Finally, we demonstrate this framework's applicability in dynamic models of gene regulatory networks and identify nodes whose override is necessary for control in the general case but not in specific model instances.

Thermomechanical deformation testing and modeling in the presence of metallurgical instabilities. M.S. Thesis - Akron Univ. Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castelli, Michael G.

1990-01-01

A number of viscoplastic constitutive models were developed to describe deformation behavior under complex combinations of thermal and mechanical loading. Questions remain, however, regarding the validity of procedures used to characterize these models for specific structural alloys. One area of concern is that the majority of experimental data available for this purpose are determined under isothermal conditions. This experimental study is aimed at determining whether viscoplastic constitutive theories characterized using an isothermal data base can adequately model material response under the complex thermomechanical loading conditions typical of power generation service. The approach adopted was to conduct a series of carefully controlled thermomechanical experiments on a nickel-based superalloy, Hastelloy Alloy X. Previous investigations had shown that this material experiences metallurgical instabilities leading to complex hardening behavior, termed dynamic strain aging. Investigating this phenomenon under full thermomechanical conditions leads to a number of challenging experimental difficulties which up to the present work were unresolved. To correct this situation, a number of advances were made in thermomechanical testing techniques. Advanced methods for dynamic temperature gradient control, phasing control and thermal strain compensation were developed and incorporated into real time test control software. These advances allowed the thermomechanical data to be analyzed with minimal experimental uncertainty. The thermomechanical results were evaluated on both a phenomenological and microstructural basis. Phenomenological results revealed that the thermomechanical hardening trends were not bounded by those displayed under isothermal conditions. For the case of Hastelloy Alloy X (and similar dynamic strain aging materials), this strongly suggests that some form of thermomechanical testing is necessary when characterizing a thermoviscoplastic deformation model. Transmission electron microscopy was used to study the microstructural physics, and analyze the unique phenomenological behavior.

Polarizability effects on the structure and dynamics of ionic liquids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cavalcante, Ary de Oliveira, E-mail: arycavalcante@ufam.edu.br; Departamento de Química, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Av. Rodrigo Octávio, 6200, Coroado, Manaus, AM; Ribeiro, Mauro C. C.

2014-04-14

Polarization effects on the structure and dynamics of ionic liquids are investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. Four different ionic liquids were simulated, formed by the anions Cl{sup −} and PF{sub 6}{sup −}, treated as single fixed charge sites, and the 1-n-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium cations (1-ethyl and 1-butyl-), which are polarizable. The partial charge fluctuation of the cations is provided by the electronegativity equalization model (EEM) and a complete parameter set for the cations electronegativity (χ) and hardness (J) is presented. Results obtained from a non-polarizable model for the cations are also reported for comparison. Relative to the fixed charged model, the equilibriummore » structure of the first solvation shell around the imidazolium cations shows that inclusion of EEM polarization forces brings cations closer to each other and that anions are preferentially distributed above and below the plane of the imidazolium ring. The polarizable model yields faster translational and reorientational dynamics than the fixed charges model in the rotational-diffusion regime. In this sense, the polarizable model dynamics is in better agreement with the experimental data.« less

Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.

2016-12-01

The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

DOE PAGES

Sippel, Sebastian; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; ...

2016-10-20

Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observedmore » and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. Here we demonstrate that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics.« less

Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sippel, Sebastian; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.

Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observedmore » and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. Here we demonstrate that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics.« less

Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers

PubMed Central

Sippel, Sebastian; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Hauhs, Michael; Bodesheim, Paul; Kaminski, Thomas; Gans, Fabian; Rosso, Osvaldo A.

2016-01-01

Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observed and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. We demonstrate here that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ) for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective ecological time series. At global scale, our understanding of C fluxes relies on the use of consistently applied land models. Here, we use ITQ to evaluate model structure: The measures are largely insensitive to climatic scenarios, land use and atmospheric gas concentrations used to drive them, but clearly separate the structure of 13 different land models taken from the CMIP5 archive and an observations-based product. In conclusion, diagnostic measures of this kind provide data-analytical tools that distinguish different types of natural processes based solely on their dynamics, and are thus highly suitable for environmental science applications such as model structural diagnostics. PMID:27764187

A Dynamic Finite Element Analysis of Human Foot Complex in the Sagittal Plane during Level Walking

PubMed Central

Qian, Zhihui; Ren, Lei; Ding, Yun; Hutchinson, John R.; Ren, Luquan

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a computational framework for investigating the dynamic behavior and the internal loading conditions of the human foot complex during locomotion. A subject-specific dynamic finite element model in the sagittal plane was constructed based on anatomical structures segmented from medical CT scan images. Three-dimensional gait measurements were conducted to support and validate the model. Ankle joint forces and moment derived from gait measurements were used to drive the model. Explicit finite element simulations were conducted, covering the entire stance phase from heel-strike impact to toe-off. The predicted ground reaction forces, center of pressure, foot bone motions and plantar surface pressure showed reasonably good agreement with the gait measurement data over most of the stance phase. The prediction discrepancies can be explained by the assumptions and limitations of the model. Our analysis showed that a dynamic FE simulation can improve the prediction accuracy in the peak plantar pressures at some parts of the foot complex by 10%–33% compared to a quasi-static FE simulation. However, to simplify the costly explicit FE simulation, the proposed model is confined only to the sagittal plane and has a simplified representation of foot structure. The dynamic finite element foot model proposed in this study would provide a useful tool for future extension to a fully muscle-driven dynamic three-dimensional model with detailed representation of all major anatomical structures, in order to investigate the structural dynamics of the human foot musculoskeletal system during normal or even pathological functioning. PMID:24244500

A dynamic finite element analysis of human foot complex in the sagittal plane during level walking.

PubMed

Qian, Zhihui; Ren, Lei; Ding, Yun; Hutchinson, John R; Ren, Luquan

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a computational framework for investigating the dynamic behavior and the internal loading conditions of the human foot complex during locomotion. A subject-specific dynamic finite element model in the sagittal plane was constructed based on anatomical structures segmented from medical CT scan images. Three-dimensional gait measurements were conducted to support and validate the model. Ankle joint forces and moment derived from gait measurements were used to drive the model. Explicit finite element simulations were conducted, covering the entire stance phase from heel-strike impact to toe-off. The predicted ground reaction forces, center of pressure, foot bone motions and plantar surface pressure showed reasonably good agreement with the gait measurement data over most of the stance phase. The prediction discrepancies can be explained by the assumptions and limitations of the model. Our analysis showed that a dynamic FE simulation can improve the prediction accuracy in the peak plantar pressures at some parts of the foot complex by 10%-33% compared to a quasi-static FE simulation. However, to simplify the costly explicit FE simulation, the proposed model is confined only to the sagittal plane and has a simplified representation of foot structure. The dynamic finite element foot model proposed in this study would provide a useful tool for future extension to a fully muscle-driven dynamic three-dimensional model with detailed representation of all major anatomical structures, in order to investigate the structural dynamics of the human foot musculoskeletal system during normal or even pathological functioning.

Molecular dynamics simulation of the structure and dynamics of 5-HT3 serotonin receptor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonov, M. Yu.; Popinako, A. V.; Prokopiev, G. A.

2016-10-01

In this work, we investigated structure, dynamics and ion transportation in transmembrane domain of the 5-HT3 serotonin receptor. High-resolution (0.35 nm) structure of the 5-HT3 receptor in complex with stabilizing nanobodies was determined by protein crystallography in 2014 (Protein data bank (PDB) code 4PIR). Transmembrane domain of the structure was prepared in complex with explicit membrane environment (1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphatidylcholine (POPC)) and solvent (TIP3P water model). Molecular dynamics protocols for simulation and stabilization of the transmembrane domain of the 5-HT3 receptor model were developed and 60 ns simulation of the structure was conducted in order to explore structural parameters of the system. We estimated the mean force profile for Na+ ions using umbrella sampling method.

A dynamic social systems model for considering structural factors in HIV prevention and detection

PubMed Central

Latkin, Carl; Weeks, Margaret; Glasman, Laura; Galletly, Carol; Albarracin, Dolores

2010-01-01

We present a model for HIV-related behaviors that emphasizes the dynamic and social nature of the structural factors that influence HIV prevention and detection. Key structural dimensions of the model include resources, science and technology, formal social control, informal social influences and control, social interconnectedness, and settings. These six dimensions can be conceptualized on macro, meso, and micro levels. Given the inherent complexity of structural factors and their interrelatedness, HIV prevention interventions may focus on different levels and dimensions. We employ a systems perspective to describe the interconnected and dynamic processes of change among social systems and their components. The topics of HIV testing and safer injection facilities are analyzed using this structural framework. Finally, we discuss methodological issues in the development and evaluation of structural interventions for HIV prevention and detection. PMID:20838871

Correlation of finite-element structural dynamic analysis with measured free vibration characteristics for a full-scale helicopter fuselage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenigsberg, I. J.; Dean, M. W.; Malatino, R.

1974-01-01

The correlation achieved with each program provides the material for a discussion of modeling techniques developed for general application to finite-element dynamic analyses of helicopter airframes. Included are the selection of static and dynamic degrees of freedom, cockpit structural modeling, and the extent of flexible-frame modeling in the transmission support region and in the vicinity of large cut-outs. The sensitivity of predicted results to these modeling assumptions are discussed. Both the Sikorsky Finite-Element Airframe Vibration analysis Program (FRAN/Vibration Analysis) and the NASA Structural Analysis Program (NASTRAN) have been correlated with data taken in full-scale vibration tests of a modified CH-53A helicopter.

Adjustments to de Leva-anthropometric regression data for the changes in body proportions in elderly humans.

PubMed

Ho Hoang, Khai-Long; Mombaur, Katja

2015-10-15

Dynamic modeling of the human body is an important tool to investigate the fundamentals of the biomechanics of human movement. To model the human body in terms of a multi-body system, it is necessary to know the anthropometric parameters of the body segments. For young healthy subjects, several data sets exist that are widely used in the research community, e.g. the tables provided by de Leva. None such comprehensive anthropometric parameter sets exist for elderly people. It is, however, well known that body proportions change significantly during aging, e.g. due to degenerative effects in the spine, such that parameters for young people cannot be used for realistically simulating the dynamics of elderly people. In this study, regression equations are derived from the inertial parameters, center of mass positions, and body segment lengths provided by de Leva to be adjustable to the changes in proportion of the body parts of male and female humans due to aging. Additional adjustments are made to the reference points of the parameters for the upper body segments as they are chosen in a more practicable way in the context of creating a multi-body model in a chain structure with the pelvis representing the most proximal segment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model for dynamic self-assembled magnetic surface structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkin, M.; Glatz, A.; Snezhko, A.; Aranson, I. S.

2010-07-01

We propose a first-principles model for the dynamic self-assembly of magnetic structures at a water-air interface reported in earlier experiments. The model is based on the Navier-Stokes equation for liquids in shallow water approximation coupled to Newton equations for interacting magnetic particles suspended at a water-air interface. The model reproduces most of the observed phenomenology, including spontaneous formation of magnetic snakelike structures, generation of large-scale vortex flows, complex ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic ordering of the snake, and self-propulsion of bead-snake hybrids.

Estimates of the Public Health Impact of a Pediatric Vaccination Program Using an Intranasal Tetravalent Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccine in Belgium.

PubMed

Gerlier, Laetitia; Lamotte, Mark; Dos Santos Mendes, Sofia; Damm, Oliver; Schwehm, Markus; Eichner, Martin

2016-08-01

Our objectives were to estimate the public health outcomes of vaccinating Belgian children using an intranasal tetravalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) combined with current coverage of high-risk/elderly individuals using the trivalent inactivated vaccine. We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model to simulate seasonal influenza transmission in the Belgian population under the current coverage or after extending vaccination with QLAIV to healthy children aged 2-17 years. Differential equations describe demographic changes, exposure to infectious individuals, infection recovery, and immunity dynamics. The basic reproduction number (R 0) was calibrated to the observed number of influenza doctor visits/year. Vaccine efficacy was 80 % (live-attenuated) and 59-68 % (inactivated). The 10-year incidence of symptomatic influenza was calculated with different coverage scenarios (add-on to current coverage). Model calibration yielded R 0 = 1.1. QLAIV coverage of 75 % of those aged 2-17 years averted 374,000 symptomatic cases/year (57 % of the current number), 244,000 of which were among adults (indirect effect). Vaccinating 75 % of those aged 2-11 years and 50 % of those aged 12-17 years averted 333,200 cases/year (213,000 adult cases/year). Vaccinating only healthy children aged 2-5 years generated direct protection but limited indirect protection, even with 90 % coverage (40,800 averted adult cases/year; -8.4 %). Targeting all children averted twice as many high-risk cases as targeting high-risk children only (8485 vs. 4965/year with 75 % coverage). Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of results. The model highlights the direct and indirect protection benefits when vaccinating healthy children with QLAIV in Belgium. Policies targeting only high-risk individuals or the youngest provide limited herd protection, as school-age children are important influenza vectors in the community.

Parasitism and generation cycles in a salt-marsh planthopper

Treesearch

John D. Reeve; James T. Cronin; Donald R. Strong

1994-01-01

1. In warm climates many insects exhibit discrete generations, in the absence of obvious factors that could synchronize their age structure.It has been hypothesized that parasitoid wasps might be responsible for these oscillations in the host age structure, known as generation cycles. 2. We examine the role of the parasitoid Anagrus delicatus in the dynamics of the...

Policy choices in dementia care-An exploratory analysis of the Alberta continuing care system (ACCS) using system dynamics.

PubMed

Cepoiu-Martin, Monica; Bischak, Diane P

2018-02-01

The increase in the incidence of dementia in the aging population and the decrease in the availability of informal caregivers put pressure on continuing care systems to care for a growing number of people with disabilities. Policy changes in the continuing care system need to address this shift in the population structure. One of the most effective tools for assessing policies in complex systems is system dynamics. Nevertheless, this method is underused in continuing care capacity planning. A system dynamics model of the Alberta Continuing Care System was developed using stylized data. Sensitivity analyses and policy evaluations were conducted to demonstrate the use of system dynamics modelling in this area of public health planning. We focused our policy exploration on introducing staff/resident benchmarks in both supportive living and long-term care (LTC). The sensitivity analyses presented in this paper help identify leverage points in the system that need to be acknowledged when policy decisions are made. Our policy explorations showed that the deficits of staff increase dramatically when benchmarks are introduced, as expected, but at the end of the simulation period, the difference in deficits of both nurses and health care aids are similar between the 2 scenarios tested. Modifying the benchmarks in LTC only versus in both supportive living and LTC has similar effects on staff deficits in long term, under the assumptions of this particular model. The continuing care system dynamics model can be used to test various policy scenarios, allowing decision makers to visualize the effect of a certain policy choice on different system variables and to compare different policy options. Our exploration illustrates the use of system dynamics models for policy making in complex health care systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving Discrepancies Between Observed and Predicted Dynamic Topography on Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, F. D.; Hoggard, M.; White, N. J.

2017-12-01

Compilations of well-resolved oceanic residual depth measurements suggest that present-day dynamic topography differs from that predicted by geodynamic simulations in two significant respects. At short wavelengths (λ ≤ 5,000 km), much larger amplitude variations are observed, whereas at long wavelengths (λ > 5,000 km), observed dynamic topography is substantially smaller. Explaining the cause of this discrepancy with a view to reconciling these different approaches is central to constraining the structure and dynamics of the deep Earth. Here, we first convert shear wave velocity to temperature using an experimentally-derived anelasticity model. This relationship is calibrated using a pressure and temperature-dependent plate model that satisfies age-depth subsidence, heat flow measurements, and seismological constraints on the depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. In this way, we show that, at short-wavelengths, observed dynamic topography is consistent with ±150 ºC asthenospheric temperature anomalies. These inferred thermal buoyancy variations are independently verified by temperature measurements derived from geochemical analyses of mid-ocean ridge basalts. Viscosity profiles derived from the anelasticity model suggest that the asthenosphere has an average viscosity that is two orders of magnitude lower than that of the underlying upper mantle. The base of this low-viscosity layer coincides with a peak in azimuthal anisotropy observed in recent seismic experiments. This agreement implies that lateral asthenospheric flow is rapid with respect to the underlying upper mantle. We conclude that improved density and viscosity models of the uppermost mantle, which combine a more comprehensive physical description of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system with recent seismic tomographic models, can help to resolve spectral discrepancies between observed and predicted dynamic topography. Finally, we explore possible solutions to the long-wavelength discrepancy that exploit the velocity to density conversion described above combined with radial variation of mantle viscosity.

The dynamics of life stressors and depressive symptoms in early adolescence: a test of six theoretical models.

PubMed

Clements, Margaret; Aber, J Lawrence; Seidman, Edward

2008-01-01

Structural equation modeling was used to compare 6 competing theoretically based psychosocial models of the longitudinal association between life stressors and depressive symptoms in a sample of early adolescents (N= 907; 40% Hispanic, 32% Black, and 19% White; mean age at Time 1 = 11.4 years). Only two models fit the data, both of which included paths modeling the effect of depressive symptoms on stressors recall: The mood-congruent cognitive bias model included only depressive symptoms to life stressors paths (DS-->S), whereas the fully transactional model included paths representing both the DS-->S and stressors to depressive symptoms (S-->DS) effects. Social causation models and the stress generation model did not fit the data. Findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for mood-congruent cognitive bias in stressors-depressive symptoms investigations.

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

PubMed Central

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P.; McMahon, Clive R.; Hindell, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model’s ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals. PMID:29596456

Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System.

PubMed

Gulbudak, Hayriye; Cannataro, Vincent L; Tuncer, Necibe; Martcheva, Maia

2017-02-01

Vector-borne disease transmission is a common dissemination mode used by many pathogens to spread in a host population. Similar to directly transmitted diseases, the within-host interaction of a vector-borne pathogen and a host's immune system influences the pathogen's transmission potential between hosts via vectors. Yet there are few theoretical studies on virulence-transmission trade-offs and evolution in vector-borne pathogen-host systems. Here, we consider an immuno-epidemiological model that links the within-host dynamics to between-host circulation of a vector-borne disease. On the immunological scale, the model mimics antibody-pathogen dynamics for arbovirus diseases, such as Rift Valley fever and West Nile virus. The within-host dynamics govern transmission and host mortality and recovery in an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model. By considering multiple pathogen strains and multiple competing host populations differing in their within-host replication rate and immune response parameters, respectively, we derive evolutionary optimization principles for both pathogen and host. Invasion analysis shows that the [Formula: see text] maximization principle holds for the vector-borne pathogen. For the host, we prove that evolution favors minimizing case fatality ratio (CFR). These results are utilized to compute host and pathogen evolutionary trajectories and to determine how model parameters affect evolution outcomes. We find that increasing the vector inoculum size increases the pathogen [Formula: see text], but can either increase or decrease the pathogen virulence (the host CFR), suggesting that vector inoculum size can contribute to virulence of vector-borne diseases in distinct ways.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Microscopic analysis of protein oxidative damage: effect of carbonylation on structure, dynamics, and aggregability of villin headpiece.

PubMed

Petrov, Drazen; Zagrovic, Bojan

2011-05-11

One of the most important irreversible oxidative modifications of proteins is carbonylation, the process of introducing a carbonyl group in reaction with reactive oxygen species. Notably, carbonylation increases with the age of cells and is associated with the formation of intracellular protein aggregates and the pathogenesis of age-related disorders such as neurodegenerative diseases and cancer. However, it is still largely unclear how carbonylation affects protein structure, dynamics, and aggregability at the atomic level. Here, we use classical molecular dynamics simulations to study structure and dynamics of the carbonylated headpiece domain of villin, a key actin-organizing protein. We perform an exhaustive set of molecular dynamics simulations of a native villin headpiece together with every possible combination of carbonylated versions of its seven lysine, arginine, and proline residues, quantitatively the most important carbonylable amino acids. Surprisingly, our results suggest that high levels of carbonylation, far above those associated with cell death in vivo, may be required to destabilize and unfold protein structure through the disruption of specific stabilizing elements, such as salt bridges or proline kinks, or tampering with the hydrophobic effect. On the other hand, by using thermodynamic integration and molecular hydrophobicity potential approaches, we quantitatively show that carbonylation of hydrophilic lysine and arginine residues is equivalent to introducing hydrophobic, charge-neutral mutations in their place, and, by comparison with experimental results, we demonstrate that this by itself significantly increases the intrinsic aggregation propensity of both structured, native proteins and their unfolded states. Finally, our results provide a foundation for a novel experimental strategy to study the effects of carbonylation on protein structure, dynamics, and aggregability using site-directed mutagenesis. © 2011 American Chemical Society

A generic individual-based model to simulate morphogenesis, C-N acquisition and population dynamics in contrasting forage legumes.

PubMed

Louarn, Gaëtan; Faverjon, Lucas

2018-04-18

Individual-based models (IBMs) are promising tools to disentangle plant interactions in multi-species grasslands and foster innovative species mixtures. This study describes an IBM dealing with the morphogenesis, growth and C-N acquisition of forage legumes that integrates plastic responses from functional-structural plant models. A generic model was developed to account for herbaceous legume species with contrasting above- and below-ground morphogenetic syndromes and to integrate the responses of plants to light, water and N. Through coupling with a radiative transfer model and a three-dimensional virtual soil, the model allows dynamic resolution of competition for multiple resources at individual plant level within a plant community. The behaviour of the model was assessed on a range of monospecific stands grown along gradients of light, water and N availability. The model proved able to capture the diversity of morphologies encountered among the forage legumes. The main density-dependent features known about even-age plant populations were correctly anticipated. The model predicted (1) the 'reciprocal yield' law relating average plant mass to density, (2) a self-thinning pattern close to that measured for herbaceous species and (3) consistent changes in the size structure of plant populations with time and pedo-climatic conditions. In addition, plastic changes in the partitioning of dry matter, the N acquisition mode and in the architecture of shoots and roots emerged from the integration of plant responses to their local environment. This resulted in taller plants and thinner roots when competition was dominated by light, and shorter plants with relatively more developed root systems when competition was dominated by soil resources. A population dynamic model considering growth and morphogenesis responses to multiple resources heterogeneously distributed in the environment was presented. It should allow scaling plant-plant interactions from individual to community levels without the inconvenience of average plant models.

Functional connectivity dynamically evolves on multiple time-scales over a static structural connectome: Models and mechanisms.

PubMed

Cabral, Joana; Kringelbach, Morten L; Deco, Gustavo

2017-10-15

Over the last decade, we have observed a revolution in brain structural and functional Connectomics. On one hand, we have an ever-more detailed characterization of the brain's white matter structural connectome. On the other, we have a repertoire of consistent functional networks that form and dissipate over time during rest. Despite the evident spatial similarities between structural and functional connectivity, understanding how different time-evolving functional networks spontaneously emerge from a single structural network requires analyzing the problem from the perspective of complex network dynamics and dynamical system's theory. In that direction, bottom-up computational models are useful tools to test theoretical scenarios and depict the mechanisms at the genesis of resting-state activity. Here, we provide an overview of the different mechanistic scenarios proposed over the last decade via computational models. Importantly, we highlight the need of incorporating additional model constraints considering the properties observed at finer temporal scales with MEG and the dynamical properties of FC in order to refresh the list of candidate scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Dynamics Visualization (MDV): Stereoscopic 3D Display of Biomolecular Structure and Interactions Using the Unity Game Engine.

PubMed

Wiebrands, Michael; Malajczuk, Chris J; Woods, Andrew J; Rohl, Andrew L; Mancera, Ricardo L

2018-06-21

Molecular graphics systems are visualization tools which, upon integration into a 3D immersive environment, provide a unique virtual reality experience for research and teaching of biomolecular structure, function and interactions. We have developed a molecular structure and dynamics application, the Molecular Dynamics Visualization tool, that uses the Unity game engine combined with large scale, multi-user, stereoscopic visualization systems to deliver an immersive display experience, particularly with a large cylindrical projection display. The application is structured to separate the biomolecular modeling and visualization systems. The biomolecular model loading and analysis system was developed as a stand-alone C# library and provides the foundation for the custom visualization system built in Unity. All visual models displayed within the tool are generated using Unity-based procedural mesh building routines. A 3D user interface was built to allow seamless dynamic interaction with the model while being viewed in 3D space. Biomolecular structure analysis and display capabilities are exemplified with a range of complex systems involving cell membranes, protein folding and lipid droplets.

Large Angle Transient Dynamics (LATDYN) user's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abrahamson, A. Louis; Chang, Che-Wei; Powell, Michael G.; Wu, Shih-Chin; Bingel, Bradford D.; Theophilos, Paula M.

1991-01-01

A computer code for modeling the large angle transient dynamics (LATDYN) of structures was developed to investigate techniques for analyzing flexible deformation and control/structure interaction problems associated with large angular motions of spacecraft. This type of analysis is beyond the routine capability of conventional analytical tools without simplifying assumptions. In some instances, the motion may be sufficiently slow and the spacecraft (or component) sufficiently rigid to simplify analyses of dynamics and controls by making pseudo-static and/or rigid body assumptions. The LATDYN introduces a new approach to the problem by combining finite element structural analysis, multi-body dynamics, and control system analysis in a single tool. It includes a type of finite element that can deform and rotate through large angles at the same time, and which can be connected to other finite elements either rigidly or through mechanical joints. The LATDYN also provides symbolic capabilities for modeling control systems which are interfaced directly with the finite element structural model. Thus, the nonlinear equations representing the structural model are integrated along with the equations representing sensors, processing, and controls as a coupled system.

Effect of Age-Related Human Lens Sutures Growth on Its Fluid Dynamics.

PubMed

Wu, Ho-Ting D; Howse, Louisa A; Vaghefi, Ehsan

2017-12-01

Age-related nuclear cataract is the opacification of the clear ocular lens due to oxidative damage as we age, and is the leading cause of blindness in the world. A lack of antioxidant supply to the core of ever-growing ocular lens could contribute to the cause of this condition. In this project, a computational model was developed to study the sutural fluid inflow of the aging human lens. Three different SOLIDWORKS computational fluid dynamics models of the human lens (7 years old; 28 years old; 46 years old) were created, based on available literature data. The fluid dynamics of the lens sutures were modelled using the Stokes flow equations, combined with realistic physiological boundary conditions and embedded in COMSOL Multiphysics. The flow rate, volume, and flow rate per volume of fluid entering the aging lens were examined, and all increased over the 40 years modelled. However, while the volume of the lens grew by ∼300% and the flow rate increased by ∼400%, the flow rate per volume increased only by very moderate ∼38%. Here, sutural information from humans of 7 to 46 years of age was obtained. In this modelled age range, an increase of flow rate per volume was observed, albeit at very slow rate. We hypothesize that with even further increasing age (60+ years old), the lens volume growth would outpace its flow rate increases, which would eventually lead to malnutrition of the lens nucleus and onset of cataracts.

Ages and structural and dynamical parameters of two globular clusters in the M81 group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jun; Wang, Song; Wu, Zhenyu; Zhang, TianMeng; Zou, Hu; Zhou, Zhimin; Nie, Jundan; Zhou, Xu; Peng, Xiyang; Wang, Jiali; Wu, Jianghua; Du, Cuihua; Yuan, Qirong

2017-07-01

GC-1 and GC-2 are two globular clusters (GCs) in the remote halo of M81 and M82 in the M81 group discovered by Jang et al. using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images. These two GCs were observed as part of the Beijing-Arizona-Taiwan-Connecticut (BATC) Multicolor Sky Survey using 14 intermediate-band filters covering a wavelength range of 4000-10 000 Å. We accurately determine these two clusters' ages and masses by comparing their spectral energy distributions (from 2267 to 20 000 Å, comprising photometric data in the near-ultraviolet of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer, 14 BATC intermediate-band and Two Micron All Sky Survey near-infrared JHKs filters) with theoretical stellar population-synthesis models, resulting in ages of 15.50 ± 3.20 for GC-1 and 15.10 ± 2.70 Gyr for GC-2. The masses of GC-1 and GC-2 obtained here are 1.77-2.04 × 106 and 5.20-7.11 × 106 M⊙, respectively. In addition, the deep observations with the Advanced Camera for Surveys and Wide Field Camera 3 on the HST are used to provide the surface brightness profiles of GC-1 and GC-2. The structural and dynamical parameters are derived from fitting the profiles to three different models; in particular, the internal velocity dispersions of GC-1 and GC-2 are derived, which can be compared with ones obtained based on spectral observations in the future. For the first time, in this paper, the rh versus MV diagram shows that GC-2 is an ultra-compact dwarf in the M81 group.

A curved piezo-structure model: implications on active structural acoustic control.

PubMed

Henry, J K; Clark, R L

1999-09-01

Current research in Active Structural Acoustic Control (ASAC) relies heavily upon accurately capturing the application physics associated with the structure being controlled. The application of ASAC to aircraft interior noise requires a greater understanding of the dynamics of the curved panels which compose the skin of an aircraft fuselage. This paper presents a model of a simply supported curved panel with attached piezoelectric transducers. The model is validated by comparison to previous work. Further, experimental results for a simply supported curved panel test structure are presented in support of the model. The curvature is shown to affect substantially the dynamics of the panel, the integration of transducers, and the bandwidth required for structural acoustic control.

Topological and kinetic determinants of the modal matrices of dynamic models of metabolism

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Large-scale kinetic models of metabolism are becoming increasingly comprehensive and accurate. A key challenge is to understand the biochemical basis of the dynamic properties of these models. Linear analysis methods are well-established as useful tools for characterizing the dynamic response of metabolic networks. Central to linear analysis methods are two key matrices: the Jacobian matrix (J) and the modal matrix (M-1) arising from its eigendecomposition. The modal matrix M-1 contains dynamically independent motions of the kinetic model near a reference state, and it is sparse in practice for metabolic networks. However, connecting the structure of M-1 to the kinetic properties of the underlying reactions is non-trivial. In this study, we analyze the relationship between J, M-1, and the kinetic properties of the underlying network for kinetic models of metabolism. Specifically, we describe the origin of mode sparsity structure based on features of the network stoichiometric matrix S and the reaction kinetic gradient matrix G. First, we show that due to the scaling of kinetic parameters in real networks, diagonal dominance occurs in a substantial fraction of the rows of J, resulting in simple modal structures with clear biological interpretations. Then, we show that more complicated modes originate from topologically-connected reactions that have similar reaction elasticities in G. These elasticities represent dynamic equilibrium balances within reactions and are key determinants of modal structure. The work presented should prove useful towards obtaining an understanding of the dynamics of kinetic models of metabolism, which are rooted in the network structure and the kinetic properties of reactions. PMID:29267329

Discerning mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer Disease from normal aging: morphologic characterization based on univariate and multivariate models.

PubMed

Liao, Weiqi; Long, Xiaojing; Jiang, Chunxiang; Diao, Yanjun; Liu, Xin; Zheng, Hairong; Zhang, Lijuan

2014-05-01

Differentiating mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer Disease (AD) from healthy aging remains challenging. This study aimed to explore the cerebral structural alterations of subjects with MCI or AD as compared to healthy elderly based on the individual and collective effects of cerebral morphologic indices using univariate and multivariate analyses. T1-weighted images (T1WIs) were retrieved from Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database for 116 subjects who were categorized into groups of healthy aging, MCI, and AD. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) were performed to explore the intergroup morphologic alterations indexed by surface area, curvature index, cortical thickness, and subjacent white matter volume with age and sex controlled as covariates, in 34 parcellated gyri regions of interest (ROIs) for both cerebral hemispheres based on the T1WI. Statistical parameters were mapped on the anatomic images to facilitate visual inspection. Global rather than region-specific structural alterations were revealed in groups of MCI and AD relative to healthy elderly using MANCOVA. ANCOVA revealed that the cortical thickness decreased more prominently in entorhinal, temporal, and cingulate cortices and was positively correlated with patients' cognitive performance in AD group but not in MCI. The temporal lobe features marked atrophy of white matter during the disease dynamics. Significant intercorrelations were observed among the morphologic indices with univariate analysis for given ROIs. Significant global structural alterations were identified in MCI and AD based on MANCOVA model with improved sensitivity. The intercorrelation among the morphologic indices may dampen the use of individual morphological parameter in featuring cerebral structural alterations. Decrease in cortical thickness is not reflective of the cognitive performance at the early stage of AD. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of Structural Dynamics in a 2-Meter Square Solar Sail Model Including Axial Load Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, D. B.; Virgin, L. N.; Belvin, W. K.

2003-01-01

This paper presents a parameter study of the effect of boom axial loading on the global dynamics of a 2-meter solar sail scale model. The experimental model used is meant for building expertise in finite element analysis and experimental execution, not as a predecessor to any planned flight mission or particular design concept. The results here are to demonstrate the ability to predict and measure structural dynamics and mode shapes in the presence of axial loading.

A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a multi-state physics based model is selected to represent the aging process. The model is modified via sojourn time approach to reflect the operational and maintenance history dependence of the transition rates. Thermal-hydraulic parameters of the model are calculated via the reactor simulation environment and uncertainties associated with both parameters and the models are assessed via a two-loop Monte Carlo approach (Latin hypercube sampling) to propagate input probability distributions through the physical model. The effort documented in this thesis towards this overall objective consists of : i) defining a process for selecting critical passive components and related aging mechanisms, ii) aging model selection, iii) calculating the probability that aging would cause the component to fail, iv) uncertainty/sensitivity analyses, v) procedure development for modifying an existing PRA to accommodate consideration of passive component failures, and, vi) including the calculated failure probability in the modified PRA. The proposed methodology is applied to pressurizer surge line pipe weld aging and steam generator tube degradation in pressurized water reactors.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part II: proofs of results.

PubMed

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

2010-03-03

In this companion article to "Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content" [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption.

Association between short-term structured risk assessment outcomes and seclusion.

PubMed

van de Sande, Roland; Noorthoorn, Eric; Wierdsma, Andre; Hellendoorn, Edwin; van der Staak, Cees; Mulder, Cornelius L; Nijman, Henk

2013-12-01

Research findings indicate that the symptoms and behaviour of acute psychiatric patients can fluctuate drastically within hours, and that structured daily risk assessments can reduce the risk of aggressive incidents and the duration of seclusion. The aim of this study was to investigate the validity of two structured observation tools, the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC) and the Kennedy Axis V), as an aid in seclusion-related clinical decision-making. In this study, 7403 day-to-day risk assessments were collected over 10 725 admission days (72% of the maximum number of structured assessments). A total of 7055 daily assessment scores from 301 acute psychiatric patients were used for the multilevel analysis. The sample demonstrated that dynamic and static factors were related to seclusion. Dynamic factors included dysfunctional scores on the item 'confusion' of the Brøset Violence Checklist, and psychological impairment and impairment of social skills on the Kennedy Axis V. Static factors included non-Western descent, male sex, age less than 35 years, unmarried, and to some extent, a personality disorder. McFadden's pseudo R(2) value showed that most of the final model was related to the dynamic factors. We concluded that the incorporation of the BVC and the Kennedy Axis V into standard practice was helpful in identifying patients at high risk of seclusion. © 2013 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Assessment of a model of forest dynamics under contrasting climate and disturbance regimes in the Pacific Northwest [FORCLIM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, Richard T.; Solomon, Allen M.

2005-01-01

An individual-based model of forest dynamics (FORCLIM) was tested for its ability to simulate forest composition and structure in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Simulation results across gradients of climate and disturbance were compared to forest survey data from several vegetation zones in western Oregon. Modelled patterns of tree species composition, total basal area and stand height across climate gradients matched those in the forest survey data. However, the density of small stems (<50 cm DBH) was underestimated by the model. Thus actual size-class structure and other density-based parameters of stand structure were not simulated with high accuracy. The addition of partial-stand disturbances at moderate frequencies (<0.01 yr-1) often improved agreement between simulated and actual results. Strengths and weaknesses of the FORCLIM model in simulating forest dynamics and structure in the Pacific Northwest are discussed.

A Method to Capture Macroslip at Bolted Interfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hopkins, Ronald Neil; Heitman, Lili Anne Akin

2015-10-01

Relative motion at bolted connections can occur for large shock loads as the internal shear force in the bolted connection overcomes the frictional resistive force. This macroslip in a structure dissipates energy and reduces the response of the components above the bolted connection. There is a need to be able to capture macroslip behavior in a structural dynamics model. A linear model and many nonlinear models are not able to predict marcoslip effectively. The proposed method to capture macroslip is to use the multi-body dynamics code ADAMS to model joints with 3-D contact at the bolted interfaces. This model includesmore » both static and dynamic friction. The joints are preloaded and the pinning effect when a bolt shank impacts a through hole inside diameter is captured. Substructure representations of the components are included to account for component flexibility and dynamics. This method was applied to a simplified model of an aerospace structure and validation experiments were performed to test the adequacy of the method.« less

A Method to Capture Macroslip at Bolted Interfaces [PowerPoint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hopkins, Ronald Neil; Heitman, Lili Anne Akin

2016-01-01

Relative motion at bolted connections can occur for large shock loads as the internal shear force in the bolted connection overcomes the frictional resistive force. This macroslip in a structure dissipates energy and reduces the response of the components above the bolted connection. There is a need to be able to capture macroslip behavior in a structural dynamics model. A linear model and many nonlinear models are not able to predict marcoslip effectively. The proposed method to capture macroslip is to use the multi-body dynamics code ADAMS to model joints with 3-D contact at the bolted interfaces. This model includesmore » both static and dynamic friction. The joints are preloaded and the pinning effect when a bolt shank impacts a through hole inside diameter is captured. Substructure representations of the components are included to account for component flexibility and dynamics. This method was applied to a simplified model of an aerospace structure and validation experiments were performed to test the adequacy of the method.« less

Social mixing in Fiji: Who-eats-with-whom contact patterns and the implications of age and ethnic heterogeneity for disease dynamics in the Pacific Islands.

PubMed

Watson, Conall H; Coriakula, Jeremaia; Ngoc, Dung Tran Thi; Flasche, Stefan; Kucharski, Adam J; Lau, Colleen L; Thieu, Nga Tran Vu; le Polain de Waroux, Olivier; Rawalai, Kitione; Van, Tan Trinh; Taufa, Mere; Baker, Stephen; Nilles, Eric J; Kama, Mike; Edmunds, W John

2017-01-01

Empirical data on contact patterns can inform dynamic models of infectious disease transmission. Such information has not been widely reported from Pacific islands, nor strongly multi-ethnic settings, and few attempts have been made to quantify contact patterns relevant for the spread of gastrointestinal infections. As part of enteric fever investigations, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of the general public in Fiji, finding that within the 9,650 mealtime contacts reported by 1,814 participants, there was strong like-with-like mixing by age and ethnicity, with higher contact rates amongst iTaukei than non-iTaukei Fijians. Extra-domiciliary lunchtime contacts follow these mixing patterns, indicating the overall data do not simply reflect household structures. Inter-ethnic mixing was most common amongst school-age children. Serological responses indicative of recent Salmonella Typhi infection were found to be associated, after adjusting for age, with increased contact rates between meal-sharing iTaukei, with no association observed for other contact groups. Animal ownership and travel within the geographical division were common. These are novel data that identify ethnicity as an important social mixing variable, and use retrospective mealtime contacts as a socially acceptable metric of relevance to enteric, contact and respiratory diseases that can be collected in a single visit to participants. Application of these data to other island settings will enable communicable disease models to incorporate locally relevant mixing patterns in parameterisation.

Social mixing in Fiji: Who-eats-with-whom contact patterns and the implications of age and ethnic heterogeneity for disease dynamics in the Pacific Islands

PubMed Central

Coriakula, Jeremaia; Ngoc, Dung Tran Thi; Flasche, Stefan; Kucharski, Adam J.; Lau, Colleen L.; Thieu, Nga Tran Vu; le Polain de Waroux, Olivier; Rawalai, Kitione; Van, Tan Trinh; Taufa, Mere; Baker, Stephen; Nilles, Eric J.; Kama, Mike; Edmunds, W. John

2017-01-01

Empirical data on contact patterns can inform dynamic models of infectious disease transmission. Such information has not been widely reported from Pacific islands, nor strongly multi-ethnic settings, and few attempts have been made to quantify contact patterns relevant for the spread of gastrointestinal infections. As part of enteric fever investigations, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of the general public in Fiji, finding that within the 9,650 mealtime contacts reported by 1,814 participants, there was strong like-with-like mixing by age and ethnicity, with higher contact rates amongst iTaukei than non-iTaukei Fijians. Extra-domiciliary lunchtime contacts follow these mixing patterns, indicating the overall data do not simply reflect household structures. Inter-ethnic mixing was most common amongst school-age children. Serological responses indicative of recent Salmonella Typhi infection were found to be associated, after adjusting for age, with increased contact rates between meal-sharing iTaukei, with no association observed for other contact groups. Animal ownership and travel within the geographical division were common. These are novel data that identify ethnicity as an important social mixing variable, and use retrospective mealtime contacts as a socially acceptable metric of relevance to enteric, contact and respiratory diseases that can be collected in a single visit to participants. Application of these data to other island settings will enable communicable disease models to incorporate locally relevant mixing patterns in parameterisation. PMID:29211731

Memory and Depressive Symptoms Are Dynamically Linked among Married Couples: Longitudinal Evidence from the AHEAD Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerstorf, Denis; Hoppmann, Christiane A.; Kadlec, Kelly M.; McArdle, John J.

2009-01-01

This study examined dyadic interrelations between episodic memory and depressive symptom trajectories of change in old and advanced old age. The authors applied dynamic models to 10-year incomplete longitudinal data of initially 1,599 married couples from the study of Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (M[subscript age] = 75 years at…

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

Hyperdiffusive dynamics in Newtonian nanoparticle fluids [Hyperdiffusive dynamics in equilibrated nanoparticle fluids

DOE PAGES

Srivastava, Samanvaya; Agarwal, Praveen; Mangal, Rahul; ...

2015-09-24

Hyperdiffusive relaxations in soft glassy materials are typically associated with out-of-equilibrium states, and non-equilibrium physics and aging are often invoked in explaining their origins. Here, we report on hyperdiffusive motion in a model, equilibrium soft material comprised of single-component polymer-tethered-nanoparticles. In these materials, polymer mediated interactions lead to strong nanoparticle correlations, hyperdiffusive relaxations, and unusual variations of properties with temperature. Our experimental observations complement the current hypothesis that hyperdiffusive relaxations in soft materials require the material to exist in out–of–equilibrium states capable of driving structural rearrangements. Lastly, we propose alternatively that hyperdiffusive relaxations in our materials can arise naturally frommore » volume fluctuations brought about by equilibrium thermal forces.« less

Dynamical evolution and disintegration of comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kresak, L.

Current concepts of the origin and evolution of comets are reviewed. The place of their formation from which they have been delivered into the Oort reservoir is still an open problem, but the region of the outermost planets appears most probable. The interplay of stellar and planetary perturbations can be traced by model computations which reveal both the general trends and the variety of individual evolutionary paths. The present structure of the system of comets is controlled by the dynamical evolution of its individual members, limited by their physical aging by disintegration. Where the lifetimes are short, as in the Jupiter family of short-period comets, an equilibrium between elimination and replenishment is established. The role of different destructive processes and the resulting survival times are discussed.

Dynamical structure factor of the J1-J2 Heisenberg model in one dimension: The variational Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Francesco; Parola, Alberto; Sorella, Sandro; Becca, Federico

2018-06-01

The dynamical spin structure factor is computed within a variational framework to study the one-dimensional J1-J2 Heisenberg model. Starting from Gutzwiller-projected fermionic wave functions, the low-energy spectrum is constructed from two-spinon excitations. The direct comparison with Lanczos calculations on small clusters demonstrates the excellent description of both gapless and gapped (dimerized) phases, including incommensurate structures for J2/J1>0.5 . Calculations on large clusters show how the intensity evolves when increasing the frustrating ratio and give an unprecedented accurate characterization of the dynamical properties of (nonintegrable) frustrated spin models.

Structure and Dynamics of End-to-End Loop Formation of the Penta-Peptide Cys-Ala-Gly-Gln-Trp in Implicit Solvents

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

implicit solvents on peptide structure and dynamics , we performed extensive molecular dynamics simulations on the penta-peptide Cys-Ala-Gly-Gln-Trp. Two...end-to-end distances and dihedral angles obtained from molecular dynamics simulations with implicit solvent models were in a good agreement with those...to maintain the temperature of the systems. Introduction Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation techniques are widely used to study structure and

Estimation of beam material random field properties via sensitivity-based model updating using experimental frequency response functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, M. R.; Adhikari, S.; Dos Santos, J. M. C.; Arruda, J. R. F.

2018-03-01

Structural parameter estimation is affected not only by measurement noise but also by unknown uncertainties which are present in the system. Deterministic structural model updating methods minimise the difference between experimentally measured data and computational prediction. Sensitivity-based methods are very efficient in solving structural model updating problems. Material and geometrical parameters of the structure such as Poisson's ratio, Young's modulus, mass density, modal damping, etc. are usually considered deterministic and homogeneous. In this paper, the distributed and non-homogeneous characteristics of these parameters are considered in the model updating. The parameters are taken as spatially correlated random fields and are expanded in a spectral Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition. Using the KL expansion, the spectral dynamic stiffness matrix of the beam is expanded as a series in terms of discretized parameters, which can be estimated using sensitivity-based model updating techniques. Numerical and experimental tests involving a beam with distributed bending rigidity and mass density are used to verify the proposed method. This extension of standard model updating procedures can enhance the dynamic description of structural dynamic models.

Control Augmented Structural Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lust, Robert V.; Schmit, Lucien A.

1988-01-01

A methodology for control augmented structural synthesis is proposed for a class of structures which can be modeled as an assemblage of frame and/or truss elements. It is assumed that both the plant (structure) and the active control system dynamics can be adequately represented with a linear model. The structural sizing variables, active control system feedback gains and nonstructural lumped masses are treated simultaneously as independent design variables. Design constraints are imposed on static and dynamic displacements, static stresses, actuator forces and natural frequencies to ensure acceptable system behavior. Multiple static and dynamic loading conditions are considered. Side constraints imposed on the design variables protect against the generation of unrealizable designs. While the proposed approach is fundamentally more general, here the methodology is developed and demonstrated for the case where: (1) the dynamic loading is harmonic and thus the steady state response is of primary interest; (2) direct output feedback is used for the control system model; and (3) the actuators and sensors are collocated.

Resting-State Functional Connectivity Emerges from Structurally and Dynamically Shaped Slow Linear Fluctuations

PubMed Central

Deco, Gustavo; Mantini, Dante; Romani, Gian Luca; Hagmann, Patric; Corbetta, Maurizio

2013-01-01

Brain fluctuations at rest are not random but are structured in spatial patterns of correlated activity across different brain areas. The question of how resting-state functional connectivity (FC) emerges from the brain's anatomical connections has motivated several experimental and computational studies to understand structure–function relationships. However, the mechanistic origin of resting state is obscured by large-scale models' complexity, and a close structure–function relation is still an open problem. Thus, a realistic but simple enough description of relevant brain dynamics is needed. Here, we derived a dynamic mean field model that consistently summarizes the realistic dynamics of a detailed spiking and conductance-based synaptic large-scale network, in which connectivity is constrained by diffusion imaging data from human subjects. The dynamic mean field approximates the ensemble dynamics, whose temporal evolution is dominated by the longest time scale of the system. With this reduction, we demonstrated that FC emerges as structured linear fluctuations around a stable low firing activity state close to destabilization. Moreover, the model can be further and crucially simplified into a set of motion equations for statistical moments, providing a direct analytical link between anatomical structure, neural network dynamics, and FC. Our study suggests that FC arises from noise propagation and dynamical slowing down of fluctuations in an anatomically constrained dynamical system. Altogether, the reduction from spiking models to statistical moments presented here provides a new framework to explicitly understand the building up of FC through neuronal dynamics underpinned by anatomical connections and to drive hypotheses in task-evoked studies and for clinical applications. PMID:23825427

Cognitive Flexibility through Metastable Neural Dynamics Is Disrupted by Damage to the Structural Connectome.

PubMed

Hellyer, Peter J; Scott, Gregory; Shanahan, Murray; Sharp, David J; Leech, Robert

2015-06-17

Current theory proposes that healthy neural dynamics operate in a metastable regime, where brain regions interact to simultaneously maximize integration and segregation. Metastability may confer important behavioral properties, such as cognitive flexibility. It is increasingly recognized that neural dynamics are constrained by the underlying structural connections between brain regions. An important challenge is, therefore, to relate structural connectivity, neural dynamics, and behavior. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a pre-eminent structural disconnection disorder whereby traumatic axonal injury damages large-scale connectivity, producing characteristic cognitive impairments, including slowed information processing speed and reduced cognitive flexibility, that may be a result of disrupted metastable dynamics. Therefore, TBI provides an experimental and theoretical model to examine how metastable dynamics relate to structural connectivity and cognition. Here, we use complementary empirical and computational approaches to investigate how metastability arises from the healthy structural connectome and relates to cognitive performance. We found reduced metastability in large-scale neural dynamics after TBI, measured with resting-state functional MRI. This reduction in metastability was associated with damage to the connectome, measured using diffusion MRI. Furthermore, decreased metastability was associated with reduced cognitive flexibility and information processing. A computational model, defined by empirically derived connectivity data, demonstrates how behaviorally relevant changes in neural dynamics result from structural disconnection. Our findings suggest how metastable dynamics are important for normal brain function and contingent on the structure of the human connectome. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/359050-14$15.00/0.

Implementing a Loosely Coupled Fluid Structure Interaction Finite Element Model in PHASTA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, David

Fluid Structure Interaction problems are an important multi-physics phenomenon in the design of aerospace vehicles and other engineering applications. A variety of computational fluid dynamics solvers capable of resolving the fluid dynamics exist. PHASTA is one such computational fluid dynamics solver. Enhancing the capability of PHASTA to resolve Fluid-Structure Interaction first requires implementing a structural dynamics solver. The implementation also requires a correction of the mesh used to solve the fluid equations to account for the deformation of the structure. This results in mesh motion and causes the need for an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian modification to the fluid dynamics equations currently implemented in PHASTA. With the implementation of both structural dynamics physics, mesh correction, and the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian modification of the fluid dynamics equations, PHASTA is made capable of solving Fluid-Structure Interaction problems.

Penna model from the perspective of one geneticist

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cebrat, Stanis l̶aw

1998-09-01

Penna model of ageing predicts many phenomena in population dynamics. Since the model assumes that all genes in genomes are switched on chronologically and that there are no structural differences between male and female genomes, it cannot explain genetic death before birth and differences in mortality rates of men and women. I suggest adding the set of housekeeping genes, which are switched on during the embryo development, to the “death genes” of Penna model. Taking into account the large fraction of genes located on X chromosome whose deleterious mutations exert dominant effect on the male phenotype and recessive on the female phenotype would make it possible to avoid introducing somatic mutations as a cause of higher mortality of men. The modelling of linkage disequilibrium and its implications on eugenics have also been suggested.

Development of an Aeroelastic Modeling Capability for Transient Nozzle Side Load Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Zhao, Xiang; Zhang, Sijun; Chen, Yen-Sen

2013-01-01

Lateral nozzle forces are known to cause severe structural damage to any new rocket engine in development. Currently there is no fully coupled computational tool to analyze this fluid/structure interaction process. The objective of this study was to develop a fully coupled aeroelastic modeling capability to describe the fluid/structure interaction process during the transient nozzle operations. The aeroelastic model composes of three components: the computational fluid dynamics component based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, the computational structural dynamics component developed in the framework of modal analysis, and the fluid-structural interface component. The developed aeroelastic model was applied to the transient nozzle startup process of the Space Shuttle Main Engine at sea level. The computed nozzle side loads and the axial nozzle wall pressure profiles from the aeroelastic nozzle are compared with those of the published rigid nozzle results, and the impact of the fluid/structure interaction on nozzle side loads is interrogated and presented.

Dynamic response analysis of structure under time-variant interval process model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Baizhan; Qin, Yuan; Yu, Dejie; Jiang, Chao

2016-10-01

Due to the aggressiveness of the environmental factor, the variation of the dynamic load, the degeneration of the material property and the wear of the machine surface, parameters related with the structure are distinctly time-variant. Typical model for time-variant uncertainties is the random process model which is constructed on the basis of a large number of samples. In this work, we propose a time-variant interval process model which can be effectively used to deal with time-variant uncertainties with limit information. And then two methods are presented for the dynamic response analysis of the structure under the time-variant interval process model. The first one is the direct Monte Carlo method (DMCM) whose computational burden is relative high. The second one is the Monte Carlo method based on the Chebyshev polynomial expansion (MCM-CPE) whose computational efficiency is high. In MCM-CPE, the dynamic response of the structure is approximated by the Chebyshev polynomials which can be efficiently calculated, and then the variational range of the dynamic response is estimated according to the samples yielded by the Monte Carlo method. To solve the dependency phenomenon of the interval operation, the affine arithmetic is integrated into the Chebyshev polynomial expansion. The computational effectiveness and efficiency of MCM-CPE is verified by two numerical examples, including a spring-mass-damper system and a shell structure.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Centrifugal and Numerical Modeling of Buried Structures. Volume 2. Dynamic Soil-Structure Interaction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-14

RD-RISE 368 CENTRIFUGAL AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF BURIED STRUCTURES 1/3 VOLUME 2 DYNAMIC..(U) COLORADO UNIV AT BOULDER DEPT OF CIVIL ENVIRONMENTAL...20332-6448 ELEMENT NO NO. NO ACCESSION NO 61102F 2302 Cl 11 TITLE (Include Security Classification) (U) Centrifugal and Numerical Modeling of Buried ...were buried in a dry sand and tested in the centrifuge to simulate the effects of gravity-induced overburden stresses which played a major role in

Structure-based control of complex networks with nonlinear dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanudo, Jorge G. T.; Yang, Gang; Albert, Reka

What can we learn about controlling a system solely from its underlying network structure? Here we use a framework for control of networks governed by a broad class of nonlinear dynamics that includes the major dynamic models of biological, technological, and social processes. This feedback-based framework provides realizable node overrides that steer a system towards any of its natural long term dynamic behaviors, regardless of the dynamic details and system parameters. We use this framework on several real networks, identify the topological characteristics that underlie the predicted node overrides, and compare its predictions to those of classical structural control theory. Finally, we demonstrate this framework's applicability in dynamic models of gene regulatory networks and identify nodes whose override is necessary for control in the general case, but not in specific model instances. This work was supported by NSF Grants PHY 1205840 and IIS 1160995. JGTZ is a recipient of a Stand Up To Cancer - The V Foundation Convergence Scholar Award.

Isostatic and dynamic support of high topography on a North Atlantic passive margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedersen, Vivi K.; Huismans, Ritske S.; Moucha, Robert

2016-07-01

Substantial controversy surrounds the origin of high topography along passive continental margins. Here we focus on the well-documented elevated passive margin in southwestern Scandinavia, and quantify the relative contributions of crustal isostasy and dynamic topography in controlling the present topography. We find that majority of the topography is compensated by the crustal structure, suggesting a topographic age that is in accord with the 400 Myr old Caledonian orogenesis. In addition, we propose that dynamic uplift of ∼300 m has rejuvenated existing topography locally in the coastal region over the last 10 Myr. Such uplift, combined with a general sea level fall, can help explain a variety of observations that have traditionally been interpreted in favor of a peneplain uplift model. We conclude that high topography along the Scandinavian margin cannot represent remnants of a peneplain uplifted within the last 20 Myr. The topography must have been high since the Caledonian orogeny.

Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, Kim; Manani, Kishan A.; Peters, Nicholas S.

2015-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment.

Root structural and functional dynamics in terrestrial biosphere models--evaluation and recommendations.

PubMed

Warren, Jeffrey M; Hanson, Paul J; Iversen, Colleen M; Kumar, Jitendra; Walker, Anthony P; Wullschleger, Stan D

2015-01-01

There is wide breadth of root function within ecosystems that should be considered when modeling the terrestrial biosphere. Root structure and function are closely associated with control of plant water and nutrient uptake from the soil, plant carbon (C) assimilation, partitioning and release to the soils, and control of biogeochemical cycles through interactions within the rhizosphere. Root function is extremely dynamic and dependent on internal plant signals, root traits and morphology, and the physical, chemical and biotic soil environment. While plant roots have significant structural and functional plasticity to changing environmental conditions, their dynamics are noticeably absent from the land component of process-based Earth system models used to simulate global biogeochemical cycling. Their dynamic representation in large-scale models should improve model veracity. Here, we describe current root inclusion in models across scales, ranging from mechanistic processes of single roots to parameterized root processes operating at the landscape scale. With this foundation we discuss how existing and future root functional knowledge, new data compilation efforts, and novel modeling platforms can be leveraged to enhance root functionality in large-scale terrestrial biosphere models by improving parameterization within models, and introducing new components such as dynamic root distribution and root functional traits linked to resource extraction. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Incorporating modeling and simulations in undergraduate biophysical chemistry course to promote understanding of structure-dynamics-function relationships in proteins.

PubMed

Hati, Sanchita; Bhattacharyya, Sudeep

2016-01-01

A project-based biophysical chemistry laboratory course, which is offered to the biochemistry and molecular biology majors in their senior year, is described. In this course, the classroom study of the structure-function of biomolecules is integrated with the discovery-guided laboratory study of these molecules using computer modeling and simulations. In particular, modern computational tools are employed to elucidate the relationship between structure, dynamics, and function in proteins. Computer-based laboratory protocols that we introduced in three modules allow students to visualize the secondary, super-secondary, and tertiary structures of proteins, analyze non-covalent interactions in protein-ligand complexes, develop three-dimensional structural models (homology model) for new protein sequences and evaluate their structural qualities, and study proteins' intrinsic dynamics to understand their functions. In the fourth module, students are assigned to an authentic research problem, where they apply their laboratory skills (acquired in modules 1-3) to answer conceptual biophysical questions. Through this process, students gain in-depth understanding of protein dynamics-the missing link between structure and function. Additionally, the requirement of term papers sharpens students' writing and communication skills. Finally, these projects result in new findings that are communicated in peer-reviewed journals. © 2016 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

Leaf Aging of Amazonian Canopy Trees: Insights to Tropical Ecological Processes and Satellited Detected Canopy Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavana-Bryant, C.; Malhi, Y.; Gerard, F.

2015-12-01

Leaf aging is a fundamental driver of changes in leaf traits, thereby, regulating ecosystem processes and remotely-sensed canopy dynamics. Leaf age is particularly important for carbon-rich tropical evergreen forests, as leaf demography (leaf age distribution) has been proposed as a major driver of seasonal productivity in these forests. We explore leaf reflectance as a tool to monitor leaf age and develop a novel spectra-based (PLSR) model to predict age using data from a phenological study of 1,072 leaves from 12 lowland Amazonian canopy tree species in southern Peru. Our results demonstrate monotonic decreases in LWC and Pmass and increase in LMA with age across species; Nmass and Cmassshowed monotonic but species-specific age responses. Spectrally, we observed large age-related variation across species, with the most age-sensitive spectral domains found to be: green peak (550nm), red edge (680-750 nm), NIR (700-850 nm), and around the main water absorption features (~1450 and ~1940 nm). A spectra-based model was more accurate in predicting leaf age (R2= 0.86; %RMSE= 33) compared to trait-based models using single (R2=0.07 to 0.73; %RMSE=7 to 38) and multiple predictors (step-wise analysis; R2=0.76; %RMSE=28). Spectral and trait-based models established a physiochemical basis for the spectral age model. The relative importance of the traits modifying the leaf spectra of aging leaves was: LWC>LMA>Nmass>Pmass,&Cmass. Vegetation indices (VIs), including NDVI, EVI2, NDWI and PRI were all age-dependent. This study highlights the importance of leaf age as a mediator of leaf traits, provides evidence of age-related leaf reflectance changes that have important impacts on VIs used to monitor canopy dynamics and productivity, and proposes a new approach to predicting and monitoring leaf age with important implications for remote sensing.

A feature-based developmental model of the infant brain in structural MRI.

PubMed

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M; Zöllei, Lilla

2012-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days.

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hemler, Richard S.; Mahlman, Jerry D.; Bruhwiler, Lori; Takacs, Lawrence L.

2000-01-01

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

A Dynamic Bayesian Network Based Structural Learning towards Automated Handwritten Digit Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauplin, Olivier; Jiang, Jianmin

Pattern recognition using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is currently a growing area of study. In this paper, we present DBN models trained for classification of handwritten digit characters. The structure of these models is partly inferred from the training data of each class of digit before performing parameter learning. Classification results are presented for the four described models.

Dynamics of Topological Excitations in a Model Quantum Spin Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chun-Jiong; Deng, Youjin; Wan, Yuan; Meng, Zi Yang

2018-04-01

We study the quantum spin dynamics of a frustrated X X Z model on a pyrochlore lattice by using large-scale quantum Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic analytic continuation. In the low-temperature quantum spin ice regime, we observe signatures of coherent photon and spinon excitations in the dynamic spin structure factor. As the temperature rises to the classical spin ice regime, the photon disappears from the dynamic spin structure factor, whereas the dynamics of the spinon remain coherent in a broad temperature window. Our results provide experimentally relevant, quantitative information for the ongoing pursuit of quantum spin ice materials.

Modeling the Effect of Fluid-Structure Interaction on the Impact Dynamics of Pressurized Tank Cars

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-13

This paper presents a computational framework that : analyzes the effect of fluid-structure interaction (FSI) on the : impact dynamics of pressurized commodity tank cars using the : nonlinear dynamic finite element code ABAQUS/Explicit. : There exist...

Models of determining deformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladilin, V. N.

2016-12-01

In recent years, a lot of functions designed to determine deformation values that occur mostly as a result of settlement of structures and industrial equipment. Some authors suggest such advanced mathematical functions approximating deformations as general methods for the determination of deformations. The article describes models of deformations as physical processes. When comparing static, cinematic and dynamic models, it was found that the dynamic model reflects the deformation of structures and industrial equipment most reliably.

Cardiac Physiology of Aging: Extracellular Considerations.

PubMed

Horn, Margaux A

2015-07-01

Aging is a major risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease, with the majority of affected patients being elderly. Progressive changes to myocardial structure and function occur with aging, often in concert with underlying pathologies. However, whether chronological aging results in a remodeled "aged substrate" has yet to be established. In addition to myocyte contractility, myocardial performance relies heavily on the cardiac extracellular matrix (ECM), the roles of which are as dynamic as they are significant; including providing structural integrity, assisting in force transmission throughout the cardiac cycle and acting as a signaling medium for communication between cells and the extracellular environment. In the healthy heart, ECM homeostasis must be maintained, and matrix deposition is in balance with degradation. Consequently, alterations to, or misregulation of the cardiac ECM has been shown to occur in both aging and in pathological remodeling with disease. Mounting evidence suggests that age-induced matrix remodeling may occur at the level of ECM control; including collagen synthesis, deposition, maturation, and degradation. Furthermore, experimental studies using aged animal models not only suggest that the aged heart may respond differently to insult than the young, but the identification of key players specific to remodeling with age may hold future therapeutic potential for the treatment of cardiac dysfunction in the elderly. This review will focus on the role of the cardiac interstitium in the physiology of the aging myocardium, with particular emphasis on the implications to age-related remodeling in disease. © 2015 American Physiological Society.

Emulating a flexible space structure: Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waites, H. B.; Rice, S. C.; Jones, V. L.

1988-01-01

Control Dynamics, in conjunction with Marshall Space Flight Center, has participated in the modeling and testing of Flexible Space Structures. Through the series of configurations tested and the many techniques used for collecting, analyzing, and modeling the data, many valuable insights have been gained and important lessons learned. This paper discusses the background of the Large Space Structure program, Control Dynamics' involvement in testing and modeling of the configurations (especially the Active Control Technique Evaluation for Spacecraft (ACES) configuration), the results from these two processes, and insights gained from this work.

Model verification of large structural systems. [space shuttle model response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, L. T.; Hasselman, T. K.

1978-01-01

A computer program for the application of parameter identification on the structural dynamic models of space shuttle and other large models with hundreds of degrees of freedom is described. Finite element, dynamic, analytic, and modal models are used to represent the structural system. The interface with math models is such that output from any structural analysis program applied to any structural configuration can be used directly. Processed data from either sine-sweep tests or resonant dwell tests are directly usable. The program uses measured modal data to condition the prior analystic model so as to improve the frequency match between model and test. A Bayesian estimator generates an improved analytical model and a linear estimator is used in an iterative fashion on highly nonlinear equations. Mass and stiffness scaling parameters are generated for an improved finite element model, and the optimum set of parameters is obtained in one step.

Exploration of the folding dynamics of human telomeric G-quadruplex with a hybrid atomistic structure-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Yunqiang; Ren, Weitong; Song, Feng; Yu, Jiafeng; Wang, Jihua

2018-05-01

Structure-based models or Gō-like models, which are built from one or multiple particular experimental structures, have been successfully applied to the folding of proteins and RNAs. Recently, a variant termed the hybrid atomistic model advances the description of backbone and side chain interactions of traditional structure-based models, by borrowing the description of local interactions from classical force fields. In this study, we assessed the validity of this model in the folding problem of human telomeric DNA G-quadruplex, where local dihedral terms play important roles. A two-state model was developed and a set of molecular dynamics simulations was conducted to study the folding dynamics of sequence Htel24, which was experimentally validated to adopt two different (3 + 1) hybrid G-quadruplex topologies in K+ solution. Consistent with the experimental observations, the hybrid-1 conformation was found to be more stable and the hybrid-2 conformation was kinetically more favored. The simulations revealed that the hybrid-2 conformation folded in a higher cooperative manner, which may be the reason why it was kinetically more accessible. Moreover, by building a Markov state model, a two-quartet G-quadruplex state and a misfolded state were identified as competing states to complicate the folding process of Htel24. Besides, the simulations also showed that the transition between hybrid-1 and hybrid-2 conformations may proceed an ensemble of hairpin structures. The hybrid atomistic structure-based model reproduced the kinetic partitioning folding dynamics of Htel24 between two different folds, and thus can be used to study the complex folding processes of other G-quadruplex structures.

Tests of causal links between alcohol abuse or dependence and major depression.

PubMed

Fergusson, David M; Boden, Joseph M; Horwood, L John

2009-03-01

There has been a great deal of research on the comorbidity between alcohol abuse or dependence (AAD) and major depression (MD). However, it is unclear whether AAD increases the risk of MD or vice versa. To examine the associations between AAD and MD using fixed-effects modeling to control for confounding and using structural equation models to ascertain the direction of causality. Data were gathered during the course of the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a 25-year longitudinal study of a birth cohort of children from New Zealand (635 boys, 630 girls). General community sample. The analysis was based on a sample of 1055 participants with available data on AAD and MD at ages 17 to 18, 20 to 21, and 24 to 25 years. Symptom criteria for AAD and MD from the DSM-IV at ages 17 to 18, 20 to 21, and 24 to 25 years as well as measures of life stress, cannabis use, other illicit drug use, affiliation with deviant peers, unemployment, partner substance use, and partner criminality at ages 17 to 18, 20 to 21, and 24 to 25 years. There were significant (P < .001) pooled associations between AAD and MD. Controlling for confounding factors using conditional fixed-effects models and time-dynamic covariate factors reduced the magnitude of these associations, but they remained statistically significant. Structural equation modeling suggested that the best-fitting causal model was one in which AAD led to increased risk of MD. The findings suggest that the associations between AAD and MD were best explained by a causal model in which problems with alcohol led to increased risk of MD as opposed to a self-medication model in which MD led to increased risk of AAD.

Mixture models for protein structure ensembles.

PubMed

Hirsch, Michael; Habeck, Michael

2008-10-01

Protein structure ensembles provide important insight into the dynamics and function of a protein and contain information that is not captured with a single static structure. However, it is not clear a priori to what extent the variability within an ensemble is caused by internal structural changes. Additional variability results from overall translations and rotations of the molecule. And most experimental data do not provide information to relate the structures to a common reference frame. To report meaningful values of intrinsic dynamics, structural precision, conformational entropy, etc., it is therefore important to disentangle local from global conformational heterogeneity. We consider the task of disentangling local from global heterogeneity as an inference problem. We use probabilistic methods to infer from the protein ensemble missing information on reference frames and stable conformational sub-states. To this end, we model a protein ensemble as a mixture of Gaussian probability distributions of either entire conformations or structural segments. We learn these models from a protein ensemble using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Our first model can be used to find multiple conformers in a structure ensemble. The second model partitions the protein chain into locally stable structural segments or core elements and less structured regions typically found in loops. Both models are simple to implement and contain only a single free parameter: the number of conformers or structural segments. Our models can be used to analyse experimental ensembles, molecular dynamics trajectories and conformational change in proteins. The Python source code for protein ensemble analysis is available from the authors upon request.

Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

PubMed

Gerlier, L; Lamotte, M; Grenèche, S; Lenne, X; Carrat, F; Weil-Olivier, C; Damm, O; Schwehm, M; Eichner, M

2017-04-01

We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years). A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year. Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold. The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with QLAIV on public health and economic outcomes in France.

Learning-based deformable image registration for infant MR images in the first year of life.

PubMed

Hu, Shunbo; Wei, Lifang; Gao, Yaozong; Guo, Yanrong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

2017-01-01

Many brain development studies have been devoted to investigate dynamic structural and functional changes in the first year of life. To quantitatively measure brain development in such a dynamic period, accurate image registration for different infant subjects with possible large age gap is of high demand. Although many state-of-the-art image registration methods have been proposed for young and elderly brain images, very few registration methods work for infant brain images acquired in the first year of life, because of (a) large anatomical changes due to fast brain development and (b) dynamic appearance changes due to white-matter myelination. To address these two difficulties, we propose a learning-based registration method to not only align the anatomical structures but also alleviate the appearance differences between two arbitrary infant MR images (with large age gap) by leveraging the regression forest to predict both the initial displacement vector and appearance changes. Specifically, in the training stage, two regression models are trained separately, with (a) one model learning the relationship between local image appearance (of one development phase) and its displacement toward the template (of another development phase) and (b) another model learning the local appearance changes between the two brain development phases. Then, in the testing stage, to register a new infant image to the template, we first predict both its voxel-wise displacement and appearance changes by the two learned regression models. Since such initializations can alleviate significant appearance and shape differences between new infant image and the template, it is easy to just use a conventional registration method to refine the remaining registration. We apply our proposed registration method to align 24 infant subjects at five different time points (i.e., 2-week-old, 3-month-old, 6-month-old, 9-month-old, and 12-month-old), and achieve more accurate and robust registration results, compared to the state-of-the-art registration methods. The proposed learning-based registration method addresses the challenging task of registering infant brain images and achieves higher registration accuracy compared with other counterpart registration methods. © 2016 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Molecular dynamics studies of a DNA-binding protein: 2. An evaluation of implicit and explicit solvent models for the molecular dynamics simulation of the Escherichia coli trp repressor.

PubMed Central

Guenot, J.; Kollman, P. A.

1992-01-01

Although aqueous simulations with periodic boundary conditions more accurately describe protein dynamics than in vacuo simulations, these are computationally intensive for most proteins. Trp repressor dynamic simulations with a small water shell surrounding the starting model yield protein trajectories that are markedly improved over gas phase, yet computationally efficient. Explicit water in molecular dynamics simulations maintains surface exposure of protein hydrophilic atoms and burial of hydrophobic atoms by opposing the otherwise asymmetric protein-protein forces. This properly orients protein surface side chains, reduces protein fluctuations, and lowers the overall root mean square deviation from the crystal structure. For simulations with crystallographic waters only, a linear or sigmoidal distance-dependent dielectric yields a much better trajectory than does a constant dielectric model. As more water is added to the starting model, the differences between using distance-dependent and constant dielectric models becomes smaller, although the linear distance-dependent dielectric yields an average structure closer to the crystal structure than does a constant dielectric model. Multiplicative constants greater than one, for the linear distance-dependent dielectric simulations, produced trajectories that are progressively worse in describing trp repressor dynamics. Simulations of bovine pancreatic trypsin were used to ensure that the trp repressor results were not protein dependent and to explore the effect of the nonbonded cutoff on the distance-dependent and constant dielectric simulation models. The nonbonded cutoff markedly affected the constant but not distance-dependent dielectric bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor simulations. As with trp repressor, the distance-dependent dielectric model with a shell of water surrounding the protein produced a trajectory in better agreement with the crystal structure than a constant dielectric model, and the physical properties of the trajectory average structure, both with and without a nonbonded cutoff, were comparable. PMID:1304396

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope: Optical Jitter Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyde, T. Tupper; Ha, Kong Q.; Johnston, John D.; Howard, Joseph M.; Mosier, Gary E.

2004-01-01

This is a continuation of a series of papers on the integrated modeling activities for the James Webb Space Telescope(JWST). Starting with the linear optical model discussed in part one, and using the optical sensitivities developed in part two, we now assess the optical image motion and wavefront errors from the structural dynamics. This is often referred to as "jitter: analysis. The optical model is combined with the structural model and the control models to create a linear structural/optical/control model. The largest jitter is due to spacecraft reaction wheel assembly disturbances which are harmonic in nature and will excite spacecraft and telescope structural. The structural/optic response causes image quality degradation due to image motion (centroid error) as well as dynamic wavefront error. Jitter analysis results are used to predict imaging performance, improve the structural design, and evaluate the operational impact of the disturbance sources.

Structure and dynamics of human vimentin intermediate filament dimer and tetramer in explicit and implicit solvent models.

PubMed

Qin, Zhao; Buehler, Markus J

2011-01-01

Intermediate filaments, in addition to microtubules and microfilaments, are one of the three major components of the cytoskeleton in eukaryotic cells, and play an important role in mechanotransduction as well as in providing mechanical stability to cells at large stretch. The molecular structures, mechanical and dynamical properties of the intermediate filament basic building blocks, the dimer and the tetramer, however, have remained elusive due to persistent experimental challenges owing to the large size and fibrillar geometry of this protein. We have recently reported an atomistic-level model of the human vimentin dimer and tetramer, obtained through a bottom-up approach based on structural optimization via molecular simulation based on an implicit solvent model (Qin et al. in PLoS ONE 2009 4(10):e7294, 9). Here we present extensive simulations and structural analyses of the model based on ultra large-scale atomistic-level simulations in an explicit solvent model, with system sizes exceeding 500,000 atoms and simulations carried out at 20 ns time-scales. We report a detailed comparison of the structural and dynamical behavior of this large biomolecular model with implicit and explicit solvent models. Our simulations confirm the stability of the molecular model and provide insight into the dynamical properties of the dimer and tetramer. Specifically, our simulations reveal a heterogeneous distribution of the bending stiffness along the molecular axis with the formation of rather soft and highly flexible hinge-like regions defined by non-alpha-helical linker domains. We report a comparison of Ramachandran maps and the solvent accessible surface area between implicit and explicit solvent models, and compute the persistence length of the dimer and tetramer structure of vimentin intermediate filaments for various subdomains of the protein. Our simulations provide detailed insight into the dynamical properties of the vimentin dimer and tetramer intermediate filament building blocks, which may guide the development of novel coarse-grained models of intermediate filaments, and could also help in understanding assembly mechanisms.

At the Frontiers of Modeling Intensive Longitudinal Data: Dynamic Structural Equation Models for the Affective Measurements from the COGITO Study.

PubMed

Hamaker, E L; Asparouhov, T; Brose, A; Schmiedek, F; Muthén, B

2018-04-06

With the growing popularity of intensive longitudinal research, the modeling techniques and software options for such data are also expanding rapidly. Here we use dynamic multilevel modeling, as it is incorporated in the new dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) toolbox in Mplus, to analyze the affective data from the COGITO study. These data consist of two samples of over 100 individuals each who were measured for about 100 days. We use composite scores of positive and negative affect and apply a multilevel vector autoregressive model to allow for individual differences in means, autoregressions, and cross-lagged effects. Then we extend the model to include random residual variances and covariance, and finally we investigate whether prior depression affects later depression scores through the random effects of the daily diary measures. We end with discussing several urgent-but mostly unresolved-issues in the area of dynamic multilevel modeling.

Diagnosing the influence of model structure on the simulation of water, energy and carbon fluxes on bark beetle infested forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Brooks, P. D.; Reed, D. E.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.; Biederman, J. A.; Harpold, A. A.; Barnard, H. R.; Hu, J.

2011-12-01

Forest dynamics induced by insect infestation can have a significant, local impact on plant physiological regulation of water, energy and carbon fluxes. Rapid mortality succeeded by more gradually varying land cover changes are presently thought to initiate a cascade of changes to water, energy and carbon budgets at the forest stand scale. Initial model sensitivity results have suggested very strong changes in land-atmosphere exchanges of these variables. Specifically, model results from the Noah land surface model, a relatively simple model, have suggested that loss of transpiration function may result in a nearly 50% increase in seasonal soil moisture values and similar increases in runoff production for locations in the central Rocky Mountains. However, differing model structures, such as the representation of plant canopy architecture, snowpack dynamics, dynamic vegetation and hillslope hydrologic processes, may significantly confound the synthesis of results from different modeling systems. We assess the performance of new suite of model simulations from three different land surface models of differing model structures and complexity levels against a comprehensive set of field observations of land surface flux and state variables. The focus of the analysis is in diagnosing how model structure influences changes in energy, water and carbon budget partitioning prior to and following insect infestation. Specific emphasis in this presentation is placed on verifying variables that characterize top of canopy and within canopy energy and water fluxes. We conclude the presentation with a set of recommendations about the advantages and disadvantages of various model structures in their simulation of insect driven forest dynamics.

Dynamic tests of composite panels of an aircraft wing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Splichal, Jan; Pistek, Antonin; Hlinka, Jiri

2015-10-01

The paper describes the analysis of aerospace composite structures under dynamic loading. Today, it is common to use design procedures based on assumption of static loading only, and dynamic loading is rarely assumed and applied in design and certification of aerospace structures. The paper describes the application of dynamic loading for the design of aircraft structures, and the validation of the procedure on a selected structure. The goal is to verify the possibility of reducing the weight through improved design/modelling processes using dynamic loading instead of static loading. The research activity focuses on the modelling and testing of a composite panel representing a local segment of an aircraft wing section, investigating in particular the buckling behavior under dynamic loading. Finite Elements simulation tools are discussed, as well as the advantages of using a digital optical measurement system for the evaluation of the tests. The comparison of the finite element simulations with the results of the tests is presented.

Structural dynamic testing of composite propfan blades for a cruise missile wind tunnel model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgin, Stephen D.; Sutliff, Thomas J.

1993-01-01

The Naval Weapons Center at China Lake, California is currently evaluating a counter rotating propfan system as a means of propulsion for the next generation of cruise missiles. The details and results of a structural dynamic test program are presented for scale model graphite-epoxy composite propfan blades. These blades are intended for use on a cruise missile wind tunnel model. Both dynamic characteristics and strain operating limits of the blades are presented. Complications associated with high strain level fatigue testing methods are also discussed.

Discrete and continuous dynamics modeling of a mass moving on a flexible structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Deborah Ann

1992-01-01

A general discrete methodology for modeling the dynamics of a mass that moves on the surface of a flexible structure is developed. This problem was motivated by the Space Station/Mobile Transporter system. A model reduction approach is developed to make the methodology applicable to large structural systems. To validate the discrete methodology, continuous formulations are also developed. Three different systems are examined: (1) simply-supported beam, (2) free-free beam, and (3) free-free beam with two points of contact between the mass and the flexible beam. In addition to validating the methodology, parametric studies were performed to examine how the system's physical properties affect its dynamics.

Dynamic analysis of the deployment for mesh reflector deployable antennas with the cable-net structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yiqun; Li, Na; Yang, Guigeng; Ru, Wenrui

2017-02-01

This paper presents a dynamic analysis approach for the composite structure of a deployable truss and cable-net system. An Elastic Catenary Element is adopted to model the slack/tensioned cables. Then, from the energy standpoint, the kinetic energy, elasticity-potential energy and geopotential energy of the cable-net structure and deployable truss are derived. Thus, the flexible multi-body dynamic model of the deployable antenna is built based on the Lagrange equation. The effect of the cable-net tension on the antenna truss is discussed and compared with previous publications and a dynamic deployment analysis is performed. Both the simulation and experimental results verify the validity of the method presented.

Effects of aging in catastrophe on the steady state and dynamics of a microtubule population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemseena, V.; Gopalakrishnan, Manoj

2015-05-01

Several independent observations have suggested that the catastrophe transition in microtubules is not a first-order process, as is usually assumed. Recent in vitro observations by Gardner et al. [M. K. Gardner et al., Cell 147, 1092 (2011), 10.1016/j.cell.2011.10.037] showed that microtubule catastrophe takes place via multiple steps and the frequency increases with the age of the filament. Here we investigate, via numerical simulations and mathematical calculations, some of the consequences of the age dependence of catastrophe on the dynamics of microtubules as a function of the aging rate, for two different models of aging: exponential growth, but saturating asymptotically, and purely linear growth. The boundary demarcating the steady-state and non-steady-state regimes in the dynamics is derived analytically in both cases. Numerical simulations, supported by analytical calculations in the linear model, show that aging leads to nonexponential length distributions in steady state. More importantly, oscillations ensue in microtubule length and velocity. The regularity of oscillations, as characterized by the negative dip in the autocorrelation function, is reduced by increasing the frequency of rescue events. Our study shows that the age dependence of catastrophe could function as an intrinsic mechanism to generate oscillatory dynamics in a microtubule population, distinct from hitherto identified ones.

Modeling and molecular dynamics simulations of the V33 variant of the integrin subunit β3: Structural comparison with the L33 (HPA-1a) and P33 (HPA-1b) variants.

PubMed

Jallu, Vincent; Poulain, Pierre; Fuchs, Patrick F J; Kaplan, Cecile; de Brevern, Alexandre G

2014-10-01

The human platelet alloantigen (HPA)-1 system, the first cause of alloimmune thrombocytopenia in Caucasians, results from leucine-to-proline substitution (alleles 1a and 1b) of residue 33 in β3 subunit of the integrin αIIbβ3. A third variant with a valine (V33) has been described. Although leucine and valine share similar physicochemical properties, sera containing alloantibodies to the HPA-1a antigen variably reacted with V33-β3, suggesting structural alterations of β3. To analyze the effect of the L33V transition, molecular dynamics simulations were performed on a 3D structural model of the V33 form of the whole β3 extracellular domain (690 residues). Dynamics of the PSI (carrying residue 33), I-EGF-1, and I-EGF-2 domains of β3 were compared to previously obtained dynamics of HPA-1a structure and HPA-1b structural model using classical and innovative developments (a structural alphabet). Clustering approach and local structure analysis showed that L33-β3 and V33-β3 mostly share common structures co-existing in different dynamic equilibria. The L33V substitution mainly displaces the equilibrium between common structures. These observations can explain the variable reactivity of anti-HPA-1a alloantibodies suggesting that molecular dynamic plays a key role in the binding of these alloantibodies. Unlike the L33P substitution, the L33V transition would not affect the structure flexibility of the β3 knee, and consequently the functions of αIIbβ3. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Computational Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Problems in Solid and Structural Mechanics: Progress in the Theory and Modeling of Friction and in the Control of Dynamical Systems with Frictional Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-31

present several numerical studies designed to reveal the effect that some of the governing parameters have on the behavior of the system and, whenever...Friction and in the Control of Dynamical Systems with Frictional Forces FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT March 31, 1989 _ -- I -.7: .-.- - : AFOSR Contract F49620...SOLID AND STRUCTURAL MECHANICS: Progress in the Theory and Modeling of Friction and in the Control of Dynamical Systems with Frictional Forces I I * FINAL

Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part II: Proofs of Results*

PubMed Central

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M.

2010-01-01

In this companion article to “Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content” [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption. PMID:20405047

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Survey of Models for Concrete Degradation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin W.; Huang, Hai

Concrete is widely used in the construction of nuclear facilities because of its structural strength and its ability to shield radiation. The use of concrete in nuclear facilities for containment and shielding of radiation and radioactive materials has made its performance crucial for the safe operation of the facility. As such, when life extension is considered for nuclear power plants, it is critical to have predictive tools to address concerns related to aging processes of concrete structures and the capacity of structures subjected to age-related degradation. The goal of this report is to review and document the main aging mechanismsmore » of concern for concrete structures in nuclear power plants (NPPs) and the models used in simulations of concrete aging and structural response of degraded concrete structures. This is in preparation for future work to develop and apply models for aging processes and response of aged NPP concrete structures in the Grizzly code. To that end, this report also provides recommendations for developing more robust predictive models for aging effects of performance of concrete.« less

Assessment of the Structural Conditions of the San Clemente a Vomano Abbey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benedettini, Francesco; Alaggio, Rocco; Fusco, Felice

2008-07-08

The simultaneous use of a Finite Element (FE) accurate modeling, dynamical tests, model updating and nonlinear analysis are used to describe the integrated approach used by the authors to assess the structural conditions and the seismic vulnerability of an historical masonry structure: the Abbey Church of San Clemente al Vomano, situated in the Notaresco territory (TE, Italy) commissioned by Ermengarda, daughter of the Emperor Ludovico II, and built at the end of IX century together with a monastery to host a monastic community. Dynamical tests 'in operational conditions' and modal identification have been used to perform the FE model validation.more » Both a simple and direct method as the kinematic analysis applied on meaningful sub-structures and a nonlinear 3D dynamic analysis conducted by using the FE model have been used to forecast the seismic performance of the Church.« less

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

PubMed

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

Forest expansion and climate change in the Mountain Hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) zone, Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, U.S.A.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, A.H.

1995-08-01

The relationship between climate change and the dynamics of ecotonal populations of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana [Bong.] Carr.) was determined by comparing climate and the age structure of trees from 24 plots and seedlings from 13 plots in the subalpine zone of Lassen Volcanic National Park, California. Tree establishment was greatest during periods with above normal annual and summer temperatures, and normal or above normal precipitation. Seedling establishment was positively correlated with above normal annual and summer temperatures and negatively correlated with April snowpack depth. The different responses of trees and seedlings to precipitation variation is probably related to sitemore » soil moisture conditions. Mountain hemlock populations began to expand in 1842 and establishment increased dramatically after 1880 and peaked during a warm mesic period between 1895 and 1910. The onset of forest expansion coincides with warming that began at the end of the Little Ice Age (1850-1880). These data indicate that stability of the mountain hemlock ecotone is strongly influenced by climate. If warming induced by greenhouse gases does occur as climate models predict, then the structure and dynamics of near timberline forests in the Pacific Northwest will change. 52 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

A Feature-based Developmental Model of the Infant Brain in Structural MRI

PubMed Central

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M.; Zöllei, Lilla

2014-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days. PMID:23286050

Model reduction in a subset of the original states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yae, K. H.; Inman, D. J.

1992-01-01

A model reduction method is investigated to provide a smaller structural dynamic model for subsequent structural control design. A structural dynamic model is assumed to be derived from finite element analysis. It is first converted into the state space form, and is further reduced by the internal balancing method. Through the co-ordinate transformation derived from the states that are deleted during reduction, the reduced model is finally expressed with the states that are members of the original states. Therefore, the states in the final reduced model represent the degrees of freedom of the nodes that are selected by the designer. The procedure provides a more practical implementation of model reduction for applications in which specific nodes, such as sensor and/or actuator attachment points, are to be retained in the reduced model. Thus, it ensures that the reduced model is under the same input and output condition as the original physical model. The procedure is applied to two simple examples and comparisons are made between the full and reduced order models. The method can be applied to a linear, continuous and time-invariant model of structural dynamics with nonproportional viscous damping.

Fluid-structure interaction study of transcatheter aortic valve dynamics using smoothed particle hydrodynamics

PubMed Central

Mao, Wenbin; Li, Kewei; Sun, Wei

2016-01-01

Computational modeling of heart valve dynamics incorporating both fluid dynamics and valve structural responses has been challenging. In this study, we developed a novel fully-coupled fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). A previously developed nonlinear finite element (FE) model of transcatheter aortic valves (TAV) was utilized to couple with SPH to simulate valve leaflet dynamics throughout the entire cardiac cycle. Comparative simulations were performed to investigate the impact of using FE-only models versus FSI models, as well as an isotropic versus an anisotropic leaflet material model in TAV simulations. From the results, substantial differences in leaflet kinematics between FE-only and FSI models were observed, and the FSI model could capture the realistic leaflet dynamic deformation due to its more accurate spatial and temporal loading conditions imposed on the leaflets. The stress and the strain distributions were similar between the FE and FSI simulations. However, the peak stresses were different due to the water hammer effect induced by the flow inertia in the FSI model during the closing phase, which led to 13%–28% lower peak stresses in the FE-only model compared to that of the FSI model. The simulation results also indicated that tissue anisotropy had a minor impact on hemodynamics of the valve. However, a lower tissue stiffness in the radial direction of the leaflets could reduce the leaflet peak stress caused by the water hammer effect. It is hoped that the developed FSI models can serve as an effective tool to better assess valve dynamics and optimize next generation TAV designs. PMID:27844463

Fluid-Structure Interaction Study of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Dynamics Using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics.

PubMed

Mao, Wenbin; Li, Kewei; Sun, Wei

2016-12-01

Computational modeling of heart valve dynamics incorporating both fluid dynamics and valve structural responses has been challenging. In this study, we developed a novel fully-coupled fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). A previously developed nonlinear finite element (FE) model of transcatheter aortic valves (TAV) was utilized to couple with SPH to simulate valve leaflet dynamics throughout the entire cardiac cycle. Comparative simulations were performed to investigate the impact of using FE-only models vs. FSI models, as well as an isotropic vs. an anisotropic leaflet material model in TAV simulations. From the results, substantial differences in leaflet kinematics between FE-only and FSI models were observed, and the FSI model could capture the realistic leaflet dynamic deformation due to its more accurate spatial and temporal loading conditions imposed on the leaflets. The stress and the strain distributions were similar between the FE and FSI simulations. However, the peak stresses were different due to the water hammer effect induced by the fluid inertia in the FSI model during the closing phase, which led to 13-28% lower peak stresses in the FE-only model compared to that of the FSI model. The simulation results also indicated that tissue anisotropy had a minor impact on hemodynamics of the valve. However, a lower tissue stiffness in the radial direction of the leaflets could reduce the leaflet peak stress caused by the water hammer effect. It is hoped that the developed FSI models can serve as an effective tool to better assess valve dynamics and optimize next generation TAV designs.

Dynamical origins of the community structure of an online multi-layer society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimek, Peter; Diakonova, Marina; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; San Miguel, Maxi; Thurner, Stefan

2016-08-01

Social structures emerge as a result of individuals managing a variety of different social relationships. Societies can be represented as highly structured dynamic multiplex networks. Here we study the dynamical origins of the specific community structures of a large-scale social multiplex network of a human society that interacts in a virtual world of a massive multiplayer online game. There we find substantial differences in the community structures of different social actions, represented by the various layers in the multiplex network. Community sizes distributions are either fat-tailed or appear to be centered around a size of 50 individuals. To understand these observations we propose a voter model that is built around the principle of triadic closure. It explicitly models the co-evolution of node- and link-dynamics across different layers of the multiplex network. Depending on link and node fluctuation probabilities, the model exhibits an anomalous shattered fragmentation transition, where one layer fragments from one large component into many small components. The observed community size distributions are in good agreement with the predicted fragmentation in the model. This suggests that several detailed features of the fragmentation in societies can be traced back to the triadic closure processes.

Dynamic Investigation of Static Divergence: Analysis and Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heeg, Jennifer

2000-01-01

The phenomenon known as aeroelastic divergence is the focus of this work. The analyses and experiment presented here show that divergence can occur without a structural dynamic mode losing its oscillatory nature. Aeroelastic divergence occurs when the structural restorative capability or stiffness of a structure is overwhelmed by the static aerodynamic moment. This static aeroelastic coupling does not require the structural dynamic system behavior to cease, however. Aeroelastic changes in the dynamic mode behavior are governed not only by the stiffness, but by damping and inertial properties. The work presented here supports these fundamental assertions by examining a simple system: a typical section airfoil with only a rotational structural degree of freedom. Analytical results identified configurations that exhibit different types of dynamic mode behavior as the system encounters divergence. A wind tunnel model was designed and tested to examine divergence experimentally. The experimental results validate the analytical calculations and explicitly examine the divergence phenomenon where the dynamic mode persists. Three configurations of the wind tunnel model were tested. The experimental results agree very well with the analytical predictions of subcritical characteristics, divergence velocity, and behavior of the noncritical dynamic mode at divergence.

Insights into structural and dynamical features of water at halloysite interfaces probed by DFT and classical molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Presti, Davide; Pedone, Alfonso; Mancini, Giordano; Duce, Celia; Tiné, Maria Rosaria; Barone, Vincenzo

2016-01-21

Density functional theory calculations and classical molecular dynamics simulations have been used to investigate the structure and dynamics of water molecules on kaolinite surfaces and confined in the interlayer of a halloysite model of nanometric dimension. The first technique allowed us to accurately describe the structure of the tetrahedral-octahedral slab of kaolinite in vacuum and in interaction with water molecules and to assess the performance of two widely employed empirical force fields to model water/clay interfaces. Classical molecular dynamics simulations were used to study the hydrogen bond network structure and dynamics of water adsorbed on kaolinite surfaces and confined in the halloysite interlayer. The results are in nice agreement with the few experimental data available in the literature, showing a pronounced ordering and reduced mobility of water molecules at the hydrophilic octahedral surfaces of kaolinite and confined in the halloysite interlayer, with respect to water interacting with the hydrophobic tetrahedral surfaces and in the bulk. Finally, this investigation provides new atomistic insights into the structural and dynamical properties of water-clay interfaces, which are of fundamental importance for both natural processes and industrial applications.

Structural Dynamics Analysis and Research for FEA Modeling Method of a Light High Resolution CCD Camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jiwen; Wei, Ling; Fu, Danying

2002-01-01

resolution and wide swath. In order to assure its high optical precision smoothly passing the rigorous dynamic load of launch, it should be of high structural rigidity. Therefore, a careful study of the dynamic features of the camera structure should be performed. Pro/E. An interference examination is performed on the precise CAD model of the camera for mending the structural design. for the first time in China, and the analysis of structural dynamic of the camera is accomplished by applying the structural analysis code PATRAN and NASTRAN. The main research programs include: 1) the comparative calculation of modes analysis of the critical structure of the camera is achieved by using 4 nodes and 10 nodes tetrahedral elements respectively, so as to confirm the most reasonable general model; 2) through the modes analysis of the camera from several cases, the inherent frequencies and modes are obtained and further the rationality of the structural design of the camera is proved; 3) the static analysis of the camera under self gravity and overloads is completed and the relevant deformation and stress distributions are gained; 4) the response calculation of sine vibration of the camera is completed and the corresponding response curve and maximum acceleration response with corresponding frequencies are obtained. software technique is accurate and efficient. sensitivity, the dynamic design and engineering optimization of the critical structure of the camera are discussed. fundamental technology in design of forecoming space optical instruments.

Control of complex networks requires both structure and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, Alexander J.; Rocha, Luis M.

2016-04-01

The study of network structure has uncovered signatures of the organization of complex systems. However, there is also a need to understand how to control them; for example, identifying strategies to revert a diseased cell to a healthy state, or a mature cell to a pluripotent state. Two recent methodologies suggest that the controllability of complex systems can be predicted solely from the graph of interactions between variables, without considering their dynamics: structural controllability and minimum dominating sets. We demonstrate that such structure-only methods fail to characterize controllability when dynamics are introduced. We study Boolean network ensembles of network motifs as well as three models of biochemical regulation: the segment polarity network in Drosophila melanogaster, the cell cycle of budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and the floral organ arrangement in Arabidopsis thaliana. We demonstrate that structure-only methods both undershoot and overshoot the number and which sets of critical variables best control the dynamics of these models, highlighting the importance of the actual system dynamics in determining control. Our analysis further shows that the logic of automata transition functions, namely how canalizing they are, plays an important role in the extent to which structure predicts dynamics.

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics

PubMed Central

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J. D.

2013-01-01

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced ‘susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed’ (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions. PMID:23676892

Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.

PubMed

Krylova, Olga; Earn, David J D

2013-07-06

The population dynamics of infectious diseases occasionally undergo rapid qualitative changes, such as transitions from annual to biennial cycles or to irregular dynamics. Previous work, based on the standard seasonally forced 'susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed' (SEIR) model has found that transitions in the dynamics of many childhood diseases result from bifurcations induced by slow changes in birth and vaccination rates. However, the standard SEIR formulation assumes that the stage durations (latent and infectious periods) are exponentially distributed, whereas real distributions are narrower and centred around the mean. Much recent work has indicated that realistically distributed stage durations strongly affect the dynamical structure of seasonally forced epidemic models. We investigate whether inferences drawn from previous analyses of transitions in patterns of measles dynamics are robust to the shapes of the stage duration distributions. As an illustrative example, we analyse measles dynamics in New York City from 1928 to 1972. We find that with a fixed mean infectious period in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, the dynamical structure and predicted transitions vary substantially as a function of the shape of the infectious period distribution. By contrast, with fixed mean latent and infectious periods in the SEIR model, the shapes of the stage duration distributions have a less dramatic effect on model dynamical structure and predicted transitions. All these results can be understood more easily by considering the distribution of the disease generation time as opposed to the distributions of individual disease stages. Numerical bifurcation analysis reveals that for a given mean generation time the dynamics of the SIR and SEIR models for measles are nearly equivalent and are insensitive to the shapes of the disease stage distributions.

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

Dynamical properties of the Penna aging model applied to the population of wolves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makowiec, Danuta

1997-02-01

The parameters of th Penna bit-string model of aging of biological systems are systematically tested to better understand the model itself as well as the results arising from applying this model to studies of the development of the stationary population of Alaska wolves.

Validating clustering of molecular dynamics simulations using polymer models.

PubMed

Phillips, Joshua L; Colvin, Michael E; Newsam, Shawn

2011-11-14

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a powerful technique for sampling the meta-stable and transitional conformations of proteins and other biomolecules. Computational data clustering has emerged as a useful, automated technique for extracting conformational states from MD simulation data. Despite extensive application, relatively little work has been done to determine if the clustering algorithms are actually extracting useful information. A primary goal of this paper therefore is to provide such an understanding through a detailed analysis of data clustering applied to a series of increasingly complex biopolymer models. We develop a novel series of models using basic polymer theory that have intuitive, clearly-defined dynamics and exhibit the essential properties that we are seeking to identify in MD simulations of real biomolecules. We then apply spectral clustering, an algorithm particularly well-suited for clustering polymer structures, to our models and MD simulations of several intrinsically disordered proteins. Clustering results for the polymer models provide clear evidence that the meta-stable and transitional conformations are detected by the algorithm. The results for the polymer models also help guide the analysis of the disordered protein simulations by comparing and contrasting the statistical properties of the extracted clusters. We have developed a framework for validating the performance and utility of clustering algorithms for studying molecular biopolymer simulations that utilizes several analytic and dynamic polymer models which exhibit well-behaved dynamics including: meta-stable states, transition states, helical structures, and stochastic dynamics. We show that spectral clustering is robust to anomalies introduced by structural alignment and that different structural classes of intrinsically disordered proteins can be reliably discriminated from the clustering results. To our knowledge, our framework is the first to utilize model polymers to rigorously test the utility of clustering algorithms for studying biopolymers.

Validating clustering of molecular dynamics simulations using polymer models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a powerful technique for sampling the meta-stable and transitional conformations of proteins and other biomolecules. Computational data clustering has emerged as a useful, automated technique for extracting conformational states from MD simulation data. Despite extensive application, relatively little work has been done to determine if the clustering algorithms are actually extracting useful information. A primary goal of this paper therefore is to provide such an understanding through a detailed analysis of data clustering applied to a series of increasingly complex biopolymer models. Results We develop a novel series of models using basic polymer theory that have intuitive, clearly-defined dynamics and exhibit the essential properties that we are seeking to identify in MD simulations of real biomolecules. We then apply spectral clustering, an algorithm particularly well-suited for clustering polymer structures, to our models and MD simulations of several intrinsically disordered proteins. Clustering results for the polymer models provide clear evidence that the meta-stable and transitional conformations are detected by the algorithm. The results for the polymer models also help guide the analysis of the disordered protein simulations by comparing and contrasting the statistical properties of the extracted clusters. Conclusions We have developed a framework for validating the performance and utility of clustering algorithms for studying molecular biopolymer simulations that utilizes several analytic and dynamic polymer models which exhibit well-behaved dynamics including: meta-stable states, transition states, helical structures, and stochastic dynamics. We show that spectral clustering is robust to anomalies introduced by structural alignment and that different structural classes of intrinsically disordered proteins can be reliably discriminated from the clustering results. To our knowledge, our framework is the first to utilize model polymers to rigorously test the utility of clustering algorithms for studying biopolymers. PMID:22082218

Dynamic testing for shuttle design verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, C. E.; Leadbetter, S. A.; Rheinfurth, M. H.

1972-01-01

Space shuttle design verification requires dynamic data from full scale structural component and assembly tests. Wind tunnel and other scaled model tests are also required early in the development program to support the analytical models used in design verification. Presented is a design philosophy based on mathematical modeling of the structural system strongly supported by a comprehensive test program; some of the types of required tests are outlined.

Model selection and parameter estimation in structural dynamics using approximate Bayesian computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Abdessalem, Anis; Dervilis, Nikolaos; Wagg, David; Worden, Keith

2018-01-01

This paper will introduce the use of the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm for model selection and parameter estimation in structural dynamics. ABC is a likelihood-free method typically used when the likelihood function is either intractable or cannot be approached in a closed form. To circumvent the evaluation of the likelihood function, simulation from a forward model is at the core of the ABC algorithm. The algorithm offers the possibility to use different metrics and summary statistics representative of the data to carry out Bayesian inference. The efficacy of the algorithm in structural dynamics is demonstrated through three different illustrative examples of nonlinear system identification: cubic and cubic-quintic models, the Bouc-Wen model and the Duffing oscillator. The obtained results suggest that ABC is a promising alternative to deal with model selection and parameter estimation issues, specifically for systems with complex behaviours.

A lattice model for influenza spreading.

PubMed

Liccardo, Antonella; Fierro, Annalisa

2013-01-01

We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

Impact of Cross-Axis Structural Dynamics on Validation of Linear Models for Space Launch System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pei, Jing; Derry, Stephen D.; Zhou Zhiqiang; Newsom, Jerry R.

2014-01-01

A feasibility study was performed to examine the advisability of incorporating a set of Programmed Test Inputs (PTIs) during the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle flight. The intent of these inputs is to provide validation to the preflight models for control system stability margins, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics. During October 2009, Ares I-X program was successful in carrying out a series of PTI maneuvers which provided a significant amount of valuable data for post-flight analysis. The resulting data comparisons showed excellent agreement with the preflight linear models across the frequency spectrum of interest. However unlike Ares I-X, the structural dynamics associated with the SLS boost phase configuration are far more complex and highly coupled in all three axes. This presents a challenge when implementing this similar system identification technique to SLS. Preliminary simulation results show noticeable mismatches between PTI validation and analytical linear models in the frequency range of the structural dynamics. An alternate approach was examined which demonstrates the potential for better overall characterization of the system frequency response as well as robustness of the control design.

Modeling nonstructural carbohydrate reserve dynamics in forest trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Andrew; Keenan, Trevor; Carbone, Mariah; Pederson, Neil

2013-04-01

Understanding the factors influencing the availability of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to climate change and environmental stress. However, carbon allocation processes remain poorly understood and many models either ignore NSC reserves, or use simple and untested representations of NSC allocation and pool dynamics. Using model-data fusion techniques, we combined a parsimonious model of forest ecosystem carbon cycling with novel field sampling and laboratory analyses of NSCs. Simulations were conducted for an evergreen conifer forest and a deciduous broadleaf forest in New England. We used radiocarbon methods based on the 14C "bomb spike" to estimate the age of NSC reserves, and used this to constrain the mean residence time of modeled NSCs. We used additional data, including tower-measured fluxes of CO2, soil and biomass carbon stocks, woody biomass increment, and leaf area index and litterfall, to further constrain the model's parameters and initial conditions. Incorporation of fast- and slow-cycling NSC pools improved the ability of the model to reproduce the measured interannual variability in woody biomass increment. We show how model performance varies according to model structure and total pool size, and we use novel diagnostic criteria, based on autocorrelation statistics of annual biomass growth, to evaluate the model's ability to correctly represent lags and memory effects.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content.

PubMed

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

2010-01-01

Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

Leaf area and tree increment dynamics of even-aged and multiaged lodgepole pine stands in Montana

Treesearch

Cassandra L. Kollenberg; Kevin L. O' Hara

1999-01-01

Age structure and distribution of leaf area index (LAI) of even and multiaged lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm.) stands were examined on three study areas in western and central Montana. Projected leaf area was determined based on a relationship with sapwood cross-sectional area at breast height. Stand structure and LAI varied considerably between...

Biomolecularmodeling and simulation: a field coming of age

PubMed Central

Schlick, Tamar; Collepardo-Guevara, Rosana; Halvorsen, Leif Arthur; Jung, Segun; Xiao, Xia

2013-01-01

We assess the progress in biomolecular modeling and simulation, focusing on structure prediction and dynamics, by presenting the field’s history, metrics for its rise in popularity, early expressed expectations, and current significant applications. The increases in computational power combined with improvements in algorithms and force fields have led to considerable success, especially in protein folding, specificity of ligand/biomolecule interactions, and interpretation of complex experimental phenomena (e.g. NMR relaxation, protein-folding kinetics and multiple conformational states) through the generation of structural hypotheses and pathway mechanisms. Although far from a general automated tool, structure prediction is notable for proteins and RNA that preceded the experiment, especially by knowledge-based approaches. Thus, despite early unrealistic expectations and the realization that computer technology alone will not quickly bridge the gap between experimental and theoretical time frames, ongoing improvements to enhance the accuracy and scope of modeling and simulation are propelling the field onto a productive trajectory to become full partner with experiment and a field on its own right. PMID:21226976

Superaging and Subaging Phenomena in a Nonequilibrium Critical Behavior of the Structurally Disordered Two-Dimensional XY Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudnikov, V. V.; Prudnikov, P. V.; Popov, I. S.

2018-03-01

A Monte Carlo numerical simulation of the specific features of nonequilibrium critical behavior is carried out for the two-dimensional structurally disordered XY model during its evolution from a low-temperature initial state. On the basis of the analysis of the two-time dependence of autocorrelation functions and dynamic susceptibility for systems with spin concentrations of p = 1.0, 0.9, and 0.6, aging phenomena characterized by a slowing down of the relaxation system with increasing waiting time and the violation of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) are revealed. The values of the universal limiting fluctuation-dissipation ratio (FDR) are obtained for the systems considered. As a result of the analysis of the two-time scaling dependence for spin-spin and connected spin autocorrelation functions, it is found that structural defects lead to subaging phenomena in the behavior of the spin-spin autocorrelation function and superaging phenomena in the behavior of the connected spin autocorrelation function.

Opinion dynamics in a group-based society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gargiulo, F.; Huet, S.

2010-09-01

Many models have been proposed to analyze the evolution of opinion structure due to the interaction of individuals in their social environment. Such models analyze the spreading of ideas both in completely interacting backgrounds and on social networks, where each person has a finite set of interlocutors. In this paper we analyze the reciprocal feedback between the opinions of the individuals and the structure of the interpersonal relationships at the level of community structures. For this purpose we define a group-based random network and we study how this structure co-evolves with opinion dynamics processes. We observe that the adaptive network structure affects the opinion dynamics process helping the consensus formation. The results also show interesting behaviors in regards to the size distribution of the groups and their correlation with opinion structure.

CABS-flex: Server for fast simulation of protein structure fluctuations.

PubMed

Jamroz, Michal; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kmiecik, Sebastian

2013-07-01

The CABS-flex server (http://biocomp.chem.uw.edu.pl/CABSflex) implements CABS-model-based protocol for the fast simulations of near-native dynamics of globular proteins. In this application, the CABS model was shown to be a computationally efficient alternative to all-atom molecular dynamics--a classical simulation approach. The simulation method has been validated on a large set of molecular dynamics simulation data. Using a single input (user-provided file in PDB format), the CABS-flex server outputs an ensemble of protein models (in all-atom PDB format) reflecting the flexibility of the input structure, together with the accompanying analysis (residue mean-square-fluctuation profile and others). The ensemble of predicted models can be used in structure-based studies of protein functions and interactions.

Control Oriented Modeling and Validation of Aeroservoelastic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowder, Marianne; deCallafon, Raymond (Principal Investigator)

2002-01-01

Lightweight aircraft design emphasizes the reduction of structural weight to maximize aircraft efficiency and agility at the cost of increasing the likelihood of structural dynamic instabilities. To ensure flight safety, extensive flight testing and active structural servo control strategies are required to explore and expand the boundary of the flight envelope. Aeroservoelastic (ASE) models can provide online flight monitoring of dynamic instabilities to reduce flight time testing and increase flight safety. The success of ASE models is determined by the ability to take into account varying flight conditions and the possibility to perform flight monitoring under the presence of active structural servo control strategies. In this continued study, these aspects are addressed by developing specific methodologies and algorithms for control relevant robust identification and model validation of aeroservoelastic structures. The closed-loop model robust identification and model validation are based on a fractional model approach where the model uncertainties are characterized in a closed-loop relevant way.

A Hybrid Approach to Data Assimilation for Reconstructing the Evolution of Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Quan; Liu, Lijun

2017-11-01

Quantifying past mantle dynamic processes represents a major challenge in understanding the temporal evolution of the solid earth. Mantle convection modeling with data assimilation is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the dynamics of plate subduction and mantle convection. Although various data assimilation methods, both forward and inverse, have been created, these methods all have limitations in their capabilities to represent the real earth. Pure forward models tend to miss important mantle structures due to the incorrect initial condition and thus may lead to incorrect mantle evolution. In contrast, pure tomography-based models cannot effectively resolve the fine slab structure and would fail to predict important subduction-zone dynamic processes. Here we propose a hybrid data assimilation approach that combines the unique power of the sequential and adjoint algorithms, which can properly capture the detailed evolution of the downgoing slab and the tomographically constrained mantle structures, respectively. We apply this new method to reconstructing mantle dynamics below the western U.S. while considering large lateral viscosity variations. By comparing this result with those from several existing data assimilation methods, we demonstrate that the hybrid modeling approach recovers the realistic 4-D mantle dynamics the best.

A Hybrid Forward-Adjoint Data Assimilation Method for Reconstructing the Temporal Evolution of Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Q.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Quantifying past mantle dynamic processes represents a major challenge in understanding the temporal evolution of the solid earth. Mantle convection modeling with data assimilation is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the dynamics of plate subduction and mantle convection. Although various data assimilation methods, both forward and inverse, have been created, these methods all have limitations in their capabilities to represent the real earth. Pure forward models tend to miss important mantle structures due to the incorrect initial condition and thus may lead to incorrect mantle evolution. In contrast, pure tomography-based models cannot effectively resolve the fine slab structure and would fail to predict important subduction-zone dynamic processes. Here we propose a hybrid data assimilation method that combines the unique power of the sequential and adjoint algorithms, which can properly capture the detailed evolution of the downgoing slab and the tomographically constrained mantle structures, respectively. We apply this new method to reconstructing mantle dynamics below the western U.S. while considering large lateral viscosity variations. By comparing this result with those from several existing data assimilation methods, we demonstrate that the hybrid modeling approach recovers the realistic 4-D mantle dynamics to the best.

Reduced-Order Aerothermoelastic Analysis of Hypersonic Vehicle Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falkiewicz, Nathan J.

Design and simulation of hypersonic vehicles require consideration of a variety of disciplines due to the highly coupled nature of the flight regime. In order to capture all of the potential effects on vehicle dynamics, one must consider the aerodynamics, aerodynamic heating, heat transfer, and structural dynamics as well as the interactions between these disciplines. The problem is further complicated by the large computational expense involved in capturing all of these effects and their interactions in a full-order sense. While high-fidelity modeling techniques exist for each of these disciplines, the use of such techniques is computationally infeasible in a vehicle design and control system simulation setting for such a highly coupled problem. Early in the design stage, many iterations of analyses may need to be carried out as the vehicle design matures, thus requiring quick analysis turnaround time. Additionally, the number of states used in the analyses must be small enough to allow for efficient control simulation and design. As a result, alternatives to full-order models must be considered. This dissertation presents a fully coupled, reduced-order aerothermoelastic framework for the modeling and analysis of hypersonic vehicle structures. The reduced-order transient thermal solution is a modal solution based on the proper orthogonal decomposition. The reduced-order structural dynamic model is based on projection of the equations of motion onto a Ritz modal subspace that is identified a priori. The reduced-order models are assembled into a time-domain aerothermoelastic simulation framework which uses a partitioned time-marching scheme to account for the disparate time scales of the associated physics. The aerothermoelastic modeling framework is outlined and the formulations associated with the unsteady aerodynamics, aerodynamic heating, transient thermal, and structural dynamics are outlined. Results demonstrate the accuracy of the reduced-order transient thermal and structural dynamic models under variation in boundary conditions and flight conditions. The framework is applied to representative hypersonic vehicle control surface structures and a variety of studies are conducted to assess the impact of aerothermoelastic effects on hypersonic vehicle dynamics. The results presented in this dissertation demonstrate the ability of the proposed framework to perform efficient aerothermoelastic analysis.

Ageing dynamics of a superspin glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svante Andersson, Mikael; De Toro, Jose Angel; Lee, Su Seong; Mathieu, Roland; Nordblad, Per

2014-10-01

Magnetization dynamics of a model superspin glass system consisting of nearly monodispersed close-packed maghemite particles of diameter 8 nm is investigated. The observed non-equilibrium features of the dynamics are qualitatively similar to those of atomic spin glass systems. The intrinsic relaxation function, as observed in zero-field-cooled magnetization relaxation experiments, depends on the time the sample has been kept at constant temperature (ageing). Accompanying low-field experiments show that the archetypal spin glass characteristics —ageing, memory and rejuvenation— are reproduced in this dense system of dipolar-dipolar interacting superspins.

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling for the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle: AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.

Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

Treesearch

M.E. and D.C. Lee Borsuk

2009-01-01

The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

Theory of Aging, Rejuvenation, and the Nonequilibrium Steady State in Deformed Polymer Glasses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Kang

The nonlinear Langevin equation theory of segmental relaxation, elasticity, and mechanical response of polymer glasses is extended to describe the coupled effects of physical aging, mechanical rejuvenation, and thermal history. The key structural variable is the amplitude of density fluctuations, and segmental dynamics proceeds via stress-modified activated barrier hopping on a dynamic free-energy profile. Mechanically generated disorder rejuvenation is quantified by a dissipative work argument and increases the amplitude of density fluctuations, thereby speeding up relaxation beyond that induced by the landscape tilting mechanism. The theory makes testable predictions for the time evolution and nonequilibrium steady state of the alphamore » relaxation time, density fluctuation amplitude, elastic modulus, and other properties. Model calculations reveal a rich dependence of these quantities on preaging time, applied stress, and temperature that reflects the highly nonlinear competition between physical aging and mechanical disordering. Thermal history is erased in the long-time limit, although the nonequilibrium steady state is not the literal fully rejuvenated freshly quenched glass. The present work provides the conceptual foundation for a quantitative treatment of the nonlinear mechanical response of polymer glasses under a variety of deformation protocols.« less

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Modeling and tachometer feedback in the control of an experimental single link flexible structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia, Ephrahim; Inman, Daniel J.

1990-01-01

In this work a formulation for the modeling of a single link flexible structure will be introduced that includes the effects of dynamic interaction between the actuator and structure. These effects are the rotational modal participation factors for the structure's vibratory motion that occurs at the slewing axis. It will be shown, both theoretically and experimentally, that this dynamic interaction can be advantageous for vibration suppression of the flexible modes of the system during slewing positioning maneuvers.

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Treesearch

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

Late Na+ current and protracted electrical recovery are critical determinants of the aging myopathy

PubMed Central

Signore, Sergio; Sorrentino, Andrea; Borghetti, Giulia; Cannata, Antonio; Meo, Marianna; Zhou, Yu; Kannappan, Ramaswamy; Pasqualini, Francesco; O'Malley, Heather; Sundman, Mark; Tsigkas, Nikolaos; Zhang, Eric; Arranto, Christian; Mangiaracina, Chiara; Isobe, Kazuya; Sena, Brena F.; Kim, Junghyun; Goichberg, Polina; Nahrendorf, Matthias; Isom, Lori L.; Leri, Annarosa; Anversa, Piero; Rota, Marcello

2015-01-01

The aging myopathy manifests itself with diastolic dysfunction and preserved ejection fraction. We raised the possibility that, in a mouse model of physiological aging, defects in electromechanical properties of cardiomyocytes are important determinants of the diastolic characteristics of the myocardium, independently from changes in structural composition of the muscle and collagen framework. Here we show that an increase in the late Na+ current (INaL) in aging cardiomyocytes prolongs the action potential (AP) and influences temporal kinetics of Ca2+ cycling and contractility. These alterations increase force development and passive tension. Inhibition of INaL shortens the AP and corrects dynamics of Ca2+ transient, cell contraction and relaxation. Similarly, repolarization and diastolic tension of the senescent myocardium are partly restored. Thus, INaL offers inotropic support, but negatively interferes with cellular and ventricular compliance, providing a new perspective of the biology of myocardial aging and the aetiology of the defective cardiac performance in the elderly. PMID:26541940

CEAS/AIAA/ICASE/NASA Langley International Forum on Aeroelasticity and Structural Dynamics 1999. Pt. 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodrow Whitlow, Jr. (Editor); Todd, Emily N. (Editor)

1999-01-01

These proceedings represent a collection of the latest advances in aeroelasticity and structural dynamics from the world community. Research in the areas of unsteady aerodynamics and aeroelasticity, structural modeling and optimization, active control and adaptive structures, landing dynamics, certification and qualification, and validation testing are highlighted in the collection of papers. The wide range of results will lead to advances in the prediction and control of the structural response of aircraft and spacecraft.

A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests

Treesearch

Shuhua Yi; A. David McGuire; Eric Kasischke; Jennifer Harden; Kristen Manies; Michelle Mack; Merritt Turetsky

2010-01-01

Ecosystem models have not comprehensively considered how interactions among fire disturbance, soil environmental conditions, and biogeochemical processes affect ecosystem dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, we implemented a dynamic organic soil structure in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to investigate the effects of fire on soil temperature...

Preliminary results on the dynamics of large and flexible space structures in Halo orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colagrossi, Andrea; Lavagna, Michèle

2017-05-01

The global exploration roadmap suggests, among other ambitious future space programmes, a possible manned outpost in lunar vicinity, to support surface operations and further astronaut training for longer and deeper space missions and transfers. In particular, a Lagrangian point orbit location - in the Earth- Moon system - is suggested for a manned cis-lunar infrastructure; proposal which opens an interesting field of study from the astrodynamics perspective. Literature offers a wide set of scientific research done on orbital dynamics under the Three-Body Problem modelling approach, while less of it includes the attitude dynamics modelling as well. However, whenever a large space structure (ISS-like) is considered, not only the coupled orbit-attitude dynamics should be modelled to run more accurate analyses, but the structural flexibility should be included too. The paper, starting from the well-known Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem formulation, presents some preliminary results obtained by adding a coupled orbit-attitude dynamical model and the effects due to the large structure flexibility. In addition, the most relevant perturbing phenomena, such as the Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP) and the fourth-body (Sun) gravity, are included in the model as well. A multi-body approach has been preferred to represent possible configurations of the large cis-lunar infrastructure: interconnected simple structural elements - such as beams, rods or lumped masses linked by springs - build up the space segment. To better investigate the relevance of the flexibility effects, the lumped parameters approach is compared with a distributed parameters semi-analytical technique. A sensitivity analysis of system dynamics, with respect to different configurations and mechanical properties of the extended structure, is also presented, in order to highlight drivers for the lunar outpost design. Furthermore, a case study for a large and flexible space structure in Halo orbits around one of the Earth-Moon collinear Lagrangian points, L1 or L2, is discussed to point out some relevant outcomes for the potential implementation of such a mission.

Finite element modeling of truss structures with frequency-dependent material damping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lesieutre, George A.

1991-01-01

A physically motivated modelling technique for structural dynamic analysis that accommodates frequency dependent material damping was developed. Key features of the technique are the introduction of augmenting thermodynamic fields (AFT) to interact with the usual mechanical displacement field, and the treatment of the resulting coupled governing equations using finite element analysis methods. The AFT method is fully compatible with current structural finite element analysis techniques. The method is demonstrated in the dynamic analysis of a 10-bay planar truss structure, a structure representative of those contemplated for use in future space systems.

Recursive formulae and performance comparisons for first mode dynamics of periodic structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobeck, Jared D.; Inman, Daniel J.

2017-05-01

Periodic structures are growing in popularity especially in the energy harvesting and metastructures communities. Common types of these unique structures are referred to in the literature as zigzag, orthogonal spiral, fan-folded, and longitudinal zigzag structures. Many of these studies on periodic structures have two competing goals in common: (a) minimizing natural frequency, and (b) minimizing mass or volume. These goals suggest that no single design is best for all applications; therefore, there is a need for design optimization and comparison tools which first require efficient easy-to-implement models. All available structural dynamics models for these types of structures do provide exact analytical solutions; however, they are complex requiring tedious implementation and providing more information than necessary for practical applications making them computationally inefficient. This paper presents experimentally validated recursive models that are able to very accurately and efficiently predict the dynamics of the four most common types of periodic structures. The proposed modeling technique employs a combination of static deflection formulae and Rayleigh’s Quotient to estimate the first mode shape and natural frequency of periodic structures having any number of beams. Also included in this paper are the results of an extensive experimental validation study which show excellent agreement between model prediction and measurement. Lastly, the proposed models are used to evaluate the performance of each type of structure. Results of this performance evaluation reveal key advantages and disadvantages associated with each type of structure.

Dynamic analysis of modified transcutaneous lower blepharoplasty based on biochemical and biophysical principles.

PubMed

Liao, Chuh-Kai; Tsai, Feng-Chou; Fong, Tsorng-Harn; Huang, Chin-Ju; Shen, Yi-Chin; Ku, Yuan-Hao; Su, Ching-Hua

2013-12-01

In this study, we analyzed the key parameters of modified transcutaneous lower blepharoplasty based on multidisciplinary principles (biochemical findings and biophysical wrinkling theory). A total of 408 female patients received our subciliary lower blepharoplasty between March 2002 and January 2010. The severity of the eyebags (dynamic wrinkle numbers and prolapse) was evaluated through preoperative and postoperative photography, whereas the excised lower eyelid skin specimens from 56 patients were investigated with hematoxylin and eosin staining. The modified techniques produced significant improvements in the severity of eyebags in all age groups (P < 0.001). Poor surgical outcome was found to correlate significantly with preoperative dynamic wrinkle numbers (P < 0.001). Age, dynamic wrinkle numbers, and prolapse correlated significantly with dermal fiber density (P = 0.004, 0.000, and 0.000, respectively) but not epidermal, rete ridge, and dermal thickness or the number of rete ridges. In conclusion, modified transcutaneous lower blepharoplasty provides significant improvement to dynamic wrinkles and prolapse in the eyebags. Periorbital aging progressively disturbs the dermal compactness (fiber density) until the structure can no longer hold its integrity at the critical age (around the age of 40).

Comparative dynamics in a health investment model.

PubMed

Eisenring, C

1999-10-01

The method of comparative dynamics fully exploits the inter-temporal structure of optimal control models. I derive comparative dynamic results in a simplified demand for health model. The effect of a change in the depreciation rate on the optimal paths for health capital and investment in health is studied by use of a phase diagram.

Non-Deterministic Modelling of Food-Web Dynamics

PubMed Central

Planque, Benjamin; Lindstrøm, Ulf; Subbey, Sam

2014-01-01

A novel approach to model food-web dynamics, based on a combination of chance (randomness) and necessity (system constraints), was presented by Mullon et al. in 2009. Based on simulations for the Benguela ecosystem, they concluded that observed patterns of ecosystem variability may simply result from basic structural constraints within which the ecosystem functions. To date, and despite the importance of these conclusions, this work has received little attention. The objective of the present paper is to replicate this original model and evaluate the conclusions that were derived from its simulations. For this purpose, we revisit the equations and input parameters that form the structure of the original model and implement a comparable simulation model. We restate the model principles and provide a detailed account of the model structure, equations, and parameters. Our model can reproduce several ecosystem dynamic patterns: pseudo-cycles, variation and volatility, diet, stock-recruitment relationships, and correlations between species biomass series. The original conclusions are supported to a large extent by the current replication of the model. Model parameterisation and computational aspects remain difficult and these need to be investigated further. Hopefully, the present contribution will make this approach available to a larger research community and will promote the use of non-deterministic-network-dynamics models as ‘null models of food-webs’ as originally advocated. PMID:25299245

Age-related changes in tissue signal properties within cortical areas important for word understanding in 12- to 19-month-old infants.

PubMed

Travis, Katherine E; Curran, Megan M; Torres, Christina; Leonard, Matthew K; Brown, Timothy T; Dale, Anders M; Elman, Jeffrey L; Halgren, Eric

2014-07-01

Recently, our laboratory has shown that the neural mechanisms for encoding lexico-semantic information in adults operate functionally by 12-18 months of age within left frontotemporal cortices (Travis et al., 2011. Spatiotemporal neural dynamics of word understanding in 12- to 18-month-old-infants. Cereb Cortex. 8:1832-1839). However, there is minimal knowledge of the structural changes that occur within these and other cortical regions important for language development. To identify regional structural changes taking place during this important period in infant development, we examined age-related changes in tissue signal properties of gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) intensity and contrast. T1-weighted surface-based measures were acquired from 12- to 19-month-old infants and analyzed using a general linear model. Significant age effects were observed for GM and WM intensity and contrast within bilateral inferior lateral and anterovental temporal regions, dorsomedial frontal, and superior parietal cortices. Region of interest (ROI) analyses revealed that GM and WM intensity and contrast significantly increased with age within the same left lateral temporal regions shown to generate lexico-semantic activity in infants and adults. These findings suggest that neurophysiological processes supporting linguistic and cognitive behaviors may develop before cellular and structural maturation is complete within associative cortices. These results have important implications for understanding the neurobiological mechanisms relating structural to functional brain development. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

DNA-based approach to aging martens (Martes americana and M. caurina)

Treesearch

Jonathan N. Pauli; John P. Whiteman; Bruce G. Marcot; Terry M. McClean; Merav Ben-David

2011-01-01

Demographic structure is central to understanding the dynamics of animal populations. However, determining the age of free-ranging mammals is difficult, and currently impossible when sampling with noninvasive, genetic-based approaches. We present a method to estimate age class by combining measures of telomere lengths with other biologically meaningful covariates in a...

Model structures amplify uncertainty in predicted soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Shi, Zheng; Crowell, Sean; Luo, Yiqi; Moore, Berrien

2018-06-04

Large model uncertainty in projected future soil carbon (C) dynamics has been well documented. However, our understanding of the sources of this uncertainty is limited. Here we quantify the uncertainties arising from model parameters, structures and their interactions, and how those uncertainties propagate through different models to projections of future soil carbon stocks. Both the vertically resolved model and the microbial explicit model project much greater uncertainties to climate change than the conventional soil C model, with both positive and negative C-climate feedbacks, whereas the conventional model consistently predicts positive soil C-climate feedback. Our findings suggest that diverse model structures are necessary to increase confidence in soil C projection. However, the larger uncertainty in the complex models also suggests that we need to strike a balance between model complexity and the need to include diverse model structures in order to forecast soil C dynamics with high confidence and low uncertainty.

Modeling and Analysis of Structural Dynamics for a One-Tenth Scale Model NGST Sunshield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John; Lienard, Sebastien; Brodeur, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

New modeling and analysis techniques have been developed for predicting the dynamic behavior of the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) sunshield. The sunshield consists of multiple layers of pretensioned, thin-film membranes supported by deployable booms. Modeling the structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield is a challenging aspect of the problem due to the effects of membrane wrinkling. A finite element model of the sunshield was developed using an approximate engineering approach, the cable network method, to account for membrane wrinkling effects. Ground testing of a one-tenth scale model of the NGST sunshield were carried out to provide data for validating the analytical model. A series of analyses were performed to predict the behavior of the sunshield under the ground test conditions. Modal analyses were performed to predict the frequencies and mode shapes of the test article and transient response analyses were completed to simulate impulse excitation tests. Comparison was made between analytical predictions and test measurements for the dynamic behavior of the sunshield. In general, the results show good agreement with the analytical model correctly predicting the approximate frequency and mode shapes for the significant structural modes.

Identifiability of large-scale non-linear dynamic network models applied to the ADM1-case study.

PubMed

Nimmegeers, Philippe; Lauwers, Joost; Telen, Dries; Logist, Filip; Impe, Jan Van

2017-06-01

In this work, both the structural and practical identifiability of the Anaerobic Digestion Model no. 1 (ADM1) is investigated, which serves as a relevant case study of large non-linear dynamic network models. The structural identifiability is investigated using the probabilistic algorithm, adapted to deal with the specifics of the case study (i.e., a large-scale non-linear dynamic system of differential and algebraic equations). The practical identifiability is analyzed using a Monte Carlo parameter estimation procedure for a 'non-informative' and 'informative' experiment, which are heuristically designed. The model structure of ADM1 has been modified by replacing parameters by parameter combinations, to provide a generally locally structurally identifiable version of ADM1. This means that in an idealized theoretical situation, the parameters can be estimated accurately. Furthermore, the generally positive structural identifiability results can be explained from the large number of interconnections between the states in the network structure. This interconnectivity, however, is also observed in the parameter estimates, making uncorrelated parameter estimations in practice difficult. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Nonlinear structural joint model updating based on instantaneous characteristics of dynamic responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zuo-Cai; Xin, Yu; Ren, Wei-Xin

2016-08-01

This paper proposes a new nonlinear joint model updating method for shear type structures based on the instantaneous characteristics of the decomposed structural dynamic responses. To obtain an accurate representation of a nonlinear system's dynamics, the nonlinear joint model is described as the nonlinear spring element with bilinear stiffness. The instantaneous frequencies and amplitudes of the decomposed mono-component are first extracted by the analytical mode decomposition (AMD) method. Then, an objective function based on the residuals of the instantaneous frequencies and amplitudes between the experimental structure and the nonlinear model is created for the nonlinear joint model updating. The optimal values of the nonlinear joint model parameters are obtained by minimizing the objective function using the simulated annealing global optimization method. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a single-story shear type structure subjected to earthquake and harmonic excitations is simulated as a numerical example. Then, a beam structure with multiple local nonlinear elements subjected to earthquake excitation is also simulated. The nonlinear beam structure is updated based on the global and local model using the proposed method. The results show that the proposed local nonlinear model updating method is more effective for structures with multiple local nonlinear elements. Finally, the proposed method is verified by the shake table test of a real high voltage switch structure. The accuracy of the proposed method is quantified both in numerical and experimental applications using the defined error indices. Both the numerical and experimental results have shown that the proposed method can effectively update the nonlinear joint model.

Atomistic characterization of the active-site solvation dynamics of a model photocatalyst

DOE PAGES

van Driel, Tim B.; Kjær, Kasper S.; Hartsock, Robert W.; ...

2016-11-28

The interactions between the reactive excited state of molecular photocatalysts and surrounding solvent dictate reaction mechanisms and pathways, but are not readily accessible to conventional optical spectroscopic techniques. Here we report an investigation of the structural and solvation dynamics following excitation of a model photocatalytic molecular system [Ir 2(dimen) 4] 2+, where dimen is para-diisocyanomenthane. The time-dependent structural changes in this model photocatalyst, as well as the changes in the solvation shell structure, have been measured with ultrafast diffuse X-ray scattering and simulated with Born-Oppenheimer Molecular Dynamics. Both methods provide direct access to the solute–solvent pair distribution function, enabling themore » solvation dynamics around the catalytically active iridium sites to be robustly characterized. Our results provide evidence for the coordination of the iridium atoms by the acetonitrile solvent and demonstrate the viability of using diffuse X-ray scattering at free-electron laser sources for studying the dynamics of photocatalysis.« less

Creating a Test-Validated Finite-Element Model of the X-56A Aircraft Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-Gi; Truong, Samson

2014-01-01

Small modeling errors in a finite-element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of the X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression and, therefore, in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of the X-56A aircraft. The ground-vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite-element model of the X-56A aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite-element model of the X-56A aircraft is improved using a model-tuning tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of the X-56A aircraft have been improved in a single optimization run. Frequency and the cross-orthogonality (mode shape) matrix were the primary focus for improvement, whereas other properties such as c.g. location, total weight, and off-diagonal terms of the mass orthogonality matrix were used as constraints. The end result was an improved structural dynamic finite-element model configuration for the X-56A aircraft. Improved frequencies and mode shapes in this study increased average flutter speeds of the X-56A aircraft by 7.6% compared to the baseline model.

Effects of silvicultural management intensity on fluxes of dissolved and particulate organic matter in 27 forest sites of the Biodiversity Exploratories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalzik, Beate; Bischoff, Sebastian; Levia, Delphis; Schwarz, Martin; Escher, Peter; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Thieme, Lisa; Kerber, Katja; Kaupenjohann, Martin; Siemens, Jan

2017-04-01

In forested ecosystems, throughfall and stemflow function as key components in the cycling of water and associated biogeochemistry. Analysing annual flux data collected from 27 intensively monitored forest sites of the Biodiversity Exploratories, we found throughfall fluxes of DOC (dissolved organic carbon) linearly related (R2 = 0.40, p < 0.001) to the silvicultural management intensity indicator (SMI) developed by Schall and Ammer (2013). The SMI combines tree species, stand age and aboveground living and dead woody biomass, thereby allowing the quantifying of silvicultural management intensities of stands differing in species composition, age, silvicultural system as they convert from one stand type into another. Throughfall fluxes of particulate organic C and N (POC and PN) and dissolved N were, however independent from those forest structural metrics as well as annual C and N stemflow fluxes, which varied greatly among management intensity classes. In this context, we suggest that canopy structure metrics are more important drivers of water and matter stemflow dynamics, than structural metrics on the level of forest stands. On the other hand, leaching losses of DOC and POC from the litter layer of forests increased significantly with increasing forest management intensity. The observed relationships revealed by intensive flux monitoring are important because they allow us to link organic matter fluxes to forest metrics of larger forested areas (e.g. derived from LiDAR imagery), and hence to model and up-scale water-bound OC dynamics to the landscape level.

Dynamic condensation of non-classically damped structures using the method of Maclaurin expansion of the frequency response function in Laplace domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeilzad, Armin; Khanlari, Karen

2018-07-01

As the number of degrees of freedom (DOFs) in structural dynamic problems becomes larger, the analyzing complexity and CPU usage of computers increase drastically. Condensation (or reduction) method is an efficient technique to reduce the size of the full model or the dimension of the structural matrices by eliminating the unimportant DOFs. After the first presentation of condensation method by Guyan in 1965 for undamped structures, which ignores the dynamic effects of the mass term, various forms of dynamic condensation methods were presented to overcome this issue. Moreover, researchers have tried to expand the dynamic condensation method to non-classically damped structures. Dynamic reduction of such systems is far more complicated than undamped systems. The proposed non-iterative method in this paper is introduced as 'Maclaurin Expansion of the frequency response function in Laplace Domain' (MELD) applied for dynamic reduction of non-classically damped structures. The present approach is implemented in four numerical examples of 2D bending-shear-axial frames with various numbers of stories and spans and also a floating raft isolation system. The results of natural frequencies and dynamic responses of models are compared with each other before and after the dynamic reduction. It is shown that the result accuracy has acceptable convergence in both cases. In addition, it is indicated that the result of the proposed method is more accurate than the results of some other existing condensation methods.

Towards eradication of measles virus: global progress and strategy evaluation.

PubMed

Nokes, D J; Williams, J R; Butler, A R

1995-05-01

Despite an increase in global measles vaccine coverage from under 20% in 1980 to around 80% in 1990, measles remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality world-wide. This paper addresses a number of issues relating to efforts to control measles, namely, (i) at the global level, how might we assess the impact of measles vaccination on the incidence of infection and associated disease, and, (ii), at the strategic level, how can we utilise an understanding of the transmission dynamics of childhood viral infections to aid the design of optimal immunisation programmes? Based on WHO vaccine coverage data, and organising countries according to similarities in demographic and epidemiological parameters, an age-structured model of measles transmission is used to capture the non-linear dynamics of infection and mass vaccination and to generate projections of the impact of measles immunization world-wide. The results provide a crude indication of the percentage reduction in measles cases by year 2000 (compared with no immunization) and suggest an approximately 70% reduction in cases over all ages, and 77% reduction in cases under 5 years (where there is the greatest risk of case fatality); these suggest that WHO targets for 1995 are unlikely to be achieved. In the second part of the paper, examples are given to illustrate the usefulness of a modelling approach in evaluating measles immunization policy. The introduction of MMR vaccine in the UK in 1988 has resulted in measles incidence falling to an all time low and attention has turned to the requirements of elimination. A realistic age structured model, validated using extensive serological data, is used to compare the merits of single or two dose strategies. Based upon recent estimates of vaccine efficacy (90%) and coverage (92% by end of second year of life) it is suggested that a two-dose policy with a pre-school second dose given irrespective of vaccine history is required to prevent the build up of susceptibles to epidemic proportions in the longer term. In a second example, prompted by the success of the campaign approach to polio and measles elimination in Central and South America, simple models are used to explore and quantify the process by which pulse vaccination programmes (i.e. repeated application across a wide age range) act to control transmission.

Evaluation of the Thermodynamic Consistency of Closure Approximations in Several Models Proposed for the Description of Liquid Crystalline Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Brian J.

2002-05-01

Given the premise that a set of dynamical equations must possess a definite, underlying mathematical structure to ensure local and global thermodynamic stability, as has been well documented, several different models for describing liquid crystalline dynamics are examined with respect to said structure. These models, each derived during the past several years using a specific closure approximation for the fourth moment of the distribution function in Doi's rigid rod theory, are all shown to be inconsistent with this basic mathematical structure. The source of this inconsistency lies in Doi's expressions for the extra stress tensor and temporal evolution of the order parameter, which are rederived herein using a transformation that allows for internal compatibility with the underlying mathematical structure that is present on the distribution function level of description.

Frequency response function-based explicit framework for dynamic identification in human-structure systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaojun; Živanović, Stana

2018-05-01

The aim of this paper is to propose a novel theoretical framework for dynamic identification in a structure occupied by a single human. The framework enables the prediction of the dynamics of the human-structure system from the known properties of the individual system components, the identification of human body dynamics from the known dynamics of the empty structure and the human-structure system and the identification of the properties of the structure from the known dynamics of the human and the human-structure system. The novelty of the proposed framework is the provision of closed-form solutions in terms of frequency response functions obtained by curve fitting measured data. The advantages of the framework over existing methods are that there is neither need for nonlinear optimisation nor need for spatial/modal models of the empty structure and the human-structure system. In addition, the second-order perturbation method is employed to quantify the effect of uncertainties in human body dynamics on the dynamic identification of the empty structure and the human-structure system. The explicit formulation makes the method computationally efficient and straightforward to use. A series of numerical examples and experiments are provided to illustrate the working of the method.

SAM Works! A Systems Approach Model for Adult Education Programming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murk, Peter J.; Wells, John H.

The Systems Approach Model (SAM) is a dynamic approach to planning adult and continuing education that is intended to provide the flexibility, creativity, and meaningfulness necessary to meet the needs and interests of an ever-expanding and ever-aging student population. The SAM model consists of the following dynamically interrelated and…

A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Matrices Representing Single-Subject Multivariate Time-Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

1998-01-01

Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (p-ML) and Asymptotically Distribution Free (ADF) estimation methods for estimating dynamic factor model parameters within a covariance structure framework were compared through a Monte Carlo simulation. Both methods appear to give consistent model parameter estimates, but only ADF gives standard errors and chi-square…

A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.

PubMed

Veprauskas, Amy; Cushing, J M

2017-03-01

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

PubMed

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

Charge modeling of ionic polymer-metal composites for dynamic curvature sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahramzadeh, Yousef; Shahinpoor, Mohsen

2011-04-01

A curvature sensor based on Ionic Polymer-Metal Composite (IPMC) is proposed and characterized for sensing of curvature variation in structures such as inflatable space structures in which using low power and flexible curvature sensor is of high importance for dynamic monitoring of shape at desired points. The linearity of output signal of sensor for calibration, effect of deflection rate at low frequencies and the phase delay between the output signal and the input deformation of IPMC curvature sensor is investigated. An analytical chemo-electro-mechanical model for charge dynamic of IPMC sensor is presented based on Nernst-Planck partial differential equation which can be used to explain the phenomena observed in experiments. The rate dependency of output signal and phase delay between the applied deformation and sensor signal is studied using the proposed model. The model provides a background for predicting the general characteristics of IPMC sensor. It is shown that IPMC sensor exhibits good linearity, sensitivity, and repeatability for dynamic curvature sensing of inflatable structures.

Temporal carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, US: implications for ecological theory and carbon management

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; Donald McKenzie

2014-01-01

We quantified carbon (C) dynamics of forests in Washington, US using theoretical models of C dynamics as a function of forest age. We fit empirical models to chronosequences of forest inventory data at two scales: a coarse-scale ecosystem classification (ecosections) and forest types (potential vegetation) within ecosections. We hypothesized that analysis at the finer...

Telomeres, Nutrition, and Longevity: Can We Really Navigate Our Aging?

PubMed

Vidacek, Nikolina Škrobot; Nanic, Lucia; Ravlic, Sanda; Sopta, Mary; Geric, Marko; Gajski, Goran; Garaj-Vrhovac, Vera; Rubelj, Ivica

2017-12-12

Telomeres are dynamic chromosome-end structures that serve as guardians of genome stability. They are known to be one of the major determinants of aging and longevity in higher mammals. Studies have demonstrated a direct correlation between telomere length and life expectancy, stress, DNA damage, and onset of aging-related diseases. This review discusses the most important factors that influence our telomeres. Various genetic and environmental factors such as diet, physical activity, obesity, and stress are known to influence health and longevity as well as telomere dynamics. Individuals currently have the opportunity to modulate the dynamics of their aging and health span, monitor these processes, and even make future projections by following their telomere dynamics. As telomeres react to positive as well as negative health factors, we should be able to directly influence our telomere metabolism, slow their deterioration, and diminish our aging and perhaps extend our life and health span. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Design of a space shuttle structural dynamics model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

A 1/8 scale structural dynamics model of a parallel burn space shuttle has been designed. Basic objectives were to represent the significant low frequency structural dynamic characteristics while keeping the fabrication costs low. The model was derived from the proposed Grumman Design 619 space shuttle. The design includes an orbiter, two solid rocket motors (SRM) and an external tank (ET). The ET consists of a monocoque LO2 tank an interbank skirt with three frames to accept SRM attachment members, an LH2 tank with 10 frames of which 3 provide for orbiter attachment members, and an aft skirt with on frame to provide for aft SRM attachment members. The frames designed for the SRM attachments are fitted with transverse struts to take symmetric loads.

Structural Model Tuning Capability in an Object-Oriented Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lung, Shun-fat; Pak, Chan-gi

2008-01-01

Updating the finite element model using measured data is a challenging problem in the area of structural dynamics. The model updating process requires not only satisfactory correlations between analytical and experimental results, but also the retention of dynamic properties of structures. Accurate rigid body dynamics are important for flight control system design and aeroelastic trim analysis. Minimizing the difference between analytical and experimental results is a type of optimization problem. In this research, a multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization (MDAO) tool is introduced to optimize the objective function and constraints such that the mass properties, the natural frequencies, and the mode shapes are matched to the target data as well as the mass matrix being orthogonalized.

Structural Model Tuning Capability in an Object-Oriented Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lung, Shun-fat; Pak, Chan-gi

2008-01-01

Updating the finite element model using measured data is a challenging problem in the area of structural dynamics. The model updating process requires not only satisfactory correlations between analytical and experimental results, but also the retention of dynamic properties of structures. Accurate rigid body dynamics are important for flight control system design and aeroelastic trim analysis. Minimizing the difference between analytical and experimental results is a type of optimization problem. In this research, a multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization [MDAO] tool is introduced to optimize the objective function and constraints such that the mass properties, the natural frequencies, and the mode shapes are matched to the target data as well as the mass matrix being orthogonalized.

Nonlinear static and dynamic finite element analysis of an eccentrically loaded graphite-epoxy beam

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasanella, Edwin L.; Jackson, Karen E.; Jones, Lisa E.

1991-01-01

The Dynamic Crash Analysis of Structures (DYCAT) and NIKE3D nonlinear finite element codes were used to model the static and implulsive response of an eccentrically loaded graphite-epoxy beam. A 48-ply unidirectional composite beam was tested under an eccentric axial compressive load until failure. This loading configuration was chosen to highlight the capabilities of two finite element codes for modeling a highly nonlinear, large deflection structural problem which has an exact solution. These codes are currently used to perform dynamic analyses of aircraft structures under impact loads to study crashworthiness and energy absorbing capabilities. Both beam and plate element models were developed to compare with the experimental data using the DYCAST and NIKE3D codes.

Parametric Study of the Effect of Membrane Tension on Sunshield Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Brian; Johnston, John D.; Smith, James

2002-01-01

The NGST sunshield is a lightweight, flexible structure consisting of pretensioned membranes supported by deployable booms. The structural dynamic behavior of the sunshield must be well understood in order to predict its influence on observatory performance. A 1/10th scale model of the sunshield has been developed for ground testing to provide data to validate modeling techniques for thin film membrane structures. The validated models can then be used to predict the behaviour of the full scale sunshield. This paper summarizes the most recent tests performed on the 1/10th scale sunshield to study the effect of membrane preload on sunshield dynamics. Topics to be covered include the test setup, procedures, and a summary of results.

Control-structure interaction study for the Space Station solar dynamic power module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, J.; Ianculescu, G.; Ly, J.; Kim, M.

1991-01-01

The authors investigate the feasibility of using a conventional PID (proportional plus integral plus derivative) controller design to perform the pointing and tracking functions for the Space Station Freedom solar dynamic power module. Using this simple controller design, the control/structure interaction effects were also studied without assuming frequency bandwidth separation. From the results, the feasibility of a simple solar dynamic control solution with a reduced-order model, which satisfies the basic system pointing and stability requirements, is suggested. However, the conventional control design approach is shown to be very much influenced by the order of reduction of the plant model, i.e., the number of the retained elastic modes from the full-order model. This suggests that, for complex large space structures, such as the Space Station Freedom solar dynamic, the conventional control system design methods may not be adequate.

Object view in spatial system dynamics: a grassland farming example

PubMed Central

Neuwirth, Christian; Hofer, Barbara; Schaumberger, Andreas

2016-01-01

Abstract Spatial system dynamics (SSD) models are typically implemented by linking stock variables to raster grids while the use of object representations of human artefacts such as buildings or ownership has been limited. This limitation is addressed by this article, which demonstrates the use of object representations in SSD. The objects are parcels of land that are attributed to grassland farms. The model simulates structural change in agriculture, i.e., change in the size of farms. The aim of the model is to reveal relations between structural change, farmland fragmentation and variable farmland quality. Results show that fragmented farms tend to become consolidated by structural change, whereas consolidated initial conditions result in a significant increase of fragmentation. Consolidation is reinforced by a dynamic land market and high transportation costs. The example demonstrates the capabilities of the object-based approach for integrating object geometries (parcel shapes) and relations between objects (distances between parcels) dynamically in SSD. PMID:28190972

Simulating Food Web Dynamics along a Gradient: Quantifying Human Influence

PubMed Central

Jordán, Ferenc; Gjata, Nerta; Mei, Shu; Yule, Catherine M.

2012-01-01

Realistically parameterized and dynamically simulated food-webs are useful tool to explore the importance of the functional diversity of ecosystems, and in particular relations between the dynamics of species and the whole community. We present a stochastic dynamical food web simulation for the Kelian River (Borneo). The food web was constructed for six different locations, arrayed along a gradient of increasing human perturbation (mostly resulting from gold mining activities) along the river. Along the river, the relative importance of grazers, filterers and shredders decreases with increasing disturbance downstream, while predators become more dominant in governing eco-dynamics. Human activity led to increased turbidity and sedimentation which adversely impacts primary productivity. Since the main difference between the study sites was not the composition of the food webs (structure is quite similar) but the strengths of interactions and the abundance of the trophic groups, a dynamical simulation approach seemed to be useful to better explain human influence. In the pristine river (study site 1), when comparing a structural version of our model with the dynamical model we found that structurally central groups such as omnivores and carnivores were not the most important ones dynamically. Instead, primary consumers such as invertebrate grazers and shredders generated a greater dynamical response. Based on the dynamically most important groups, bottom-up control is replaced by the predominant top-down control regime as distance downstream and human disturbance increased. An important finding, potentially explaining the poor structure to dynamics relationship, is that indirect effects are at least as important as direct ones during the simulations. We suggest that our approach and this simulation framework could serve systems-based conservation efforts. Quantitative indicators on the relative importance of trophic groups and the mechanistic modeling of eco-dynamics could greatly contribute to understanding various aspects of functional diversity. PMID:22768346

Updating the Finite Element Model of the Aerostructures Test Wing Using Ground Vibration Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lung, Shun-Fat; Pak, Chan-Gi

2009-01-01

Improved and/or accelerated decision making is a crucial step during flutter certification processes. Unfortunately, most finite element structural dynamics models have uncertainties associated with model validity. Tuning the finite element model using measured data to minimize the model uncertainties is a challenging task in the area of structural dynamics. The model tuning process requires not only satisfactory correlations between analytical and experimental results, but also the retention of the mass and stiffness properties of the structures. Minimizing the difference between analytical and experimental results is a type of optimization problem. By utilizing the multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization (MDAO) tool in order to optimize the objective function and constraints; the mass properties, the natural frequencies, and the mode shapes can be matched to the target data to retain the mass matrix orthogonality. This approach has been applied to minimize the model uncertainties for the structural dynamics model of the aerostructures test wing (ATW), which was designed and tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California). This study has shown that natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes from the updated finite element model have excellent agreement with corresponding measured data.